A turning point in economic development?
March 3, 2011 4:51 AM Subscribe
posted by Coventry (4 comments total)
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"Towards a Sustainable Global
Golden Age" (four youtube links) is a talk by Carlota Perez comparing the current revolution in information and communications technologies (ICT) to four prior technological revolutions. She argues that each revolution has started with a long phase of experimentation driven by finance, which leads to a financial bubble and subsequent crash. The short phase of recovery from the crash is followed by a long phase of consolidation driven by concrete productivity gains and government policy. She believes that NASDAQ was the crash in the ICT revolution, and that we are still in the recovery phase, partly because cheap oil and manufacturing labor facilitated a reemphasis on unskilled-labor- and energy-intensive means of production. She speculates on what may come out of the consolidation phase she hopes we're now entering.
I found this while I was deciding whether to read Tyler Cowen's essay, The Great Stagnation
on metafilter.) Perez has an inspiring message on a aspect of the world which often seems very gloomy, and she bases it on a historical analysis which seems quite plausible.