We use unique Norwegian data on crime and internet adoption to shed light on this question. A public program with limited funding rolled out broadband access points in 2000-2008, and provides plausibly exogenous variation in internet use. Our instrumental variables and fixed effect estimates show that internet use is associated with a substantial increase in reported incidences of rape and other sex crimes [my emph.].For a contrasting view, see Kendall (2007). Also of interest in this area is D'Amato (1990).
We present a theoretical framework that highlights three mechanisms for how internet use may affect reported sex crime, namely a reporting effect, a matching effect on potential offenders and victims, and a direct effect on crime propensity. Our results indicate that the direct effect is non-negligible and positive, plausibly as a result of increased consumption of
pornography.
It should finally be noted that the arrival of the internet most likely implied a much stronger shock to the availability of pornography in Norway compared to the US. While pornography was de facto legalized and readily available in most of the US, a legal ban on pornography was in place in Norway. Access to pornography was therefore severely limited in Norway before the arrival of broadband internet, especially with respect to movies and other moving images.Emphasis mine.
The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection.Are they looking at anything besides chronological events? If so then it's not an example of the fallacy.
And, the internet didn't only bring porn, but also chat, irc, facebook and other social opportunities. An increase in social opportunities could theoretically lead to increase meetings (dating sites as well) and that may also have led to increased chances for violent crimes to occour.The study said, in the intro:
Although it is not possible to report crime to the police on the internet, internet use may induce people to report crimes that they would otherwise not report. However, we find no evidence of changes in reported crime relative to charges or convictions, which would be expected if marginal reports are less strong. There are also no changes in the time elapsed between the crime and the report, suggesting again that reporting behavior was unaffected.posted by wilful at 7:07 PM on May 15, 2011
Next, we try to distinguish between the two other mechanisms. On the one hand, there may be a matching effect where the positive relationship between internet use and sex crime reflects that it is easier for sex offenders to meet their potential victims via chat rooms or other internet sites than through alternative activities. On the other hand, internet use can have a direct effect on the propensity for sex crime.
Our results indicate that the direct effect is positive and substantial. First, we find no effect on other types of crime, where internet use might have an indirect effect through displacing alternative activities but should have little if any direct effect.
Second, we exploit that the size of the direct effect is likely to vary systematically with access to non-internet pornography. In particular, we find a weaker effect of internet use on sex crime in municipalities close to the national border: While a legal ban on distribution of pornography was in place and enforced in Norway, pornography was legal and readily available in Sweden, the neighboring country. Although we admittedly cannot rule out matching or reporting effects, these results suggest that the positive net impact of internet use on sex crime is at least in part driven by the direct effect of internet use, plausibly as a result of increased consumption of pornography. This is consistent with many previous laboratory studies which support that pornography and sex crime are complements,
Our IV and fixed effect estimates suggest that internet use is associated with a significant increase in reported incidences of rape and other sex crimes. We present a theoretical framework that highlights three mechanisms for how internet use may affect reported sex crime, namely a reporting effect, a matching effect on potential offenders and victims, and a direct effect on crime propensity. Our results suggest that the direct effect is positive and empirically important, plausibly as a result of increased consumption of pornography.they claim a causal relationship (at a population, not individual level) between increased internet access and propensity to commit sexual crimes, and speculate that availability of porn is the mechanism. (although they do assume porn, or more specifically rapid increase in the availability of porn, is the mechanism in their IV analysis).
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No.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 5:27 PM on May 15, 2011 [3 favorites]