One Man One Vote, unless it's a primary?
June 10, 2011 1:31 PM Subscribe
Voters Have Up to Five Times More Influence in Early Primaries.
posted by VikingSword (53 comments total)
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'Voters in states with early primary races such as Iowa and New Hampshire have up to five times the influence of voters in later states in selecting presidential candidates, according to research by Brown University economist Brian Knight. The paper, the first to quantify the effects of early victories in the race for the presidential nomination, is co-authored by Nathan Schiff and published in The Journal of Political Economy
."Evidence that early voters have a disproportionate influence over the selection of candidates violates 'one person-one vote' -- a democratic ideal on which our nation is based."'
'For example, Knight and Schiff found that in 2004, John Kerry benefited from surprising wins in early states and took votes away from Howard Dean, who held a strong lead prior to the beginning of the primary season. According to their research, Schiff and Knight predict that if states other than Iowa and New Hampshire had voted first in 2004, the Democratic nominee may have been John Edwards, rather than John Kerry.'
'Knight's current work addresses the policy implications of this research, exploring which system is the best in terms of selecting the best candidates. The work considers whether there should be a national primary in which every state votes on the same day, the current sequential system, or possibly a hybrid system with a rotating regional primary.'
But who are the voters most likely to be primary voters? Are they merely a cross-section of average voters in the general? Why does it seem that politicians during the primary adopt more extreme positions? Perhaps, because of this - Extreme Appeal: Voters Trust Extreme Positions More Than Moderate Ones, Study Finds.