if you lived in Beverly Hills they were 1 in 458 [per year]. Still, even in good neighborhoods, the likelihood of being attacked is hardly remote
You seem to have a very, very different definition of 'overwhelmingly likely' than most people I know, although once paired with the weasel words 'some of you' and 'the average American' anything's possible, I guess.
If the chances for an individual person are, as he says, 1 in 250 each year, and (say) 1000 random people read this public article written by this very well known author (which I'm guessing is a very conservative estimate of the number of readers), there's over a 98% chance of some reader falling victim1 in 250 is a .4% chance. Of those thousand readers 1.6 will be affected.
If the chances for an individual person are, as he says, 1 in 250 each year, and (say) 1000 random people read this public article written by this very well known author (which I'm guessing is a very conservative estimate of the number of readers), there's over a 98% chance of some reader falling victim
Flunkie doesn't that model also assume that risk is evenly distributed? Violent crime isn't a fair wager.
Actually, the chance is probably greater than this, because we know that certain crimes, such as assault and rape, are underreported.
The 15 leading causes of death in 2007 were:
1. Diseases of heart (heart disease)
2. Malignant neoplasms (cancer)
3. Cerebrovascular diseases (stroke)
4. Chronic lower respiratory diseases
5. Accidents (unintentional injuries)
6. Alzheimer’s disease
7. Diabetes mellitus (diabetes)
8. Influenza and pneumonia
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis
11. Intentional self-harm (suicide)
12. Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis
13. Essential hypertension and hypertensive renal disease
14. Parkinson’s disease
15. Assault (homicide)
>You should also learn to trust your feelings of apprehension about other people—revising them only slowly and with good reason....
This is wider and more expansive advice than most people may realize. If you are a civil person you might be paying a price.
Ugh, no. If you are an uncivil person, you are inviting violence. Don't be a dick, and fewer people will want to kick your ass.
Then again, you're less likely to be led into a dark alley and knifed, so there is that.
Program group women significantly increased their protective behaviors over the 6-month follow-up period compared to the waiting-list control group. However, there were no significant differences between the two groups regarding rates of sexual victimization, assertive communication, or feelings of self-efficacy over the follow-up periods.
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