Tebow redeemed

November 28, 2011 9:05 PM

It's Good to be Tim Tebow. "Tim Tebow’s completion percentage is 44.8 percent. Take away his magical fourth quarters and the number is closer to 30 percent. This kind of awful is in the 'Shaq free-throw percentage, Mario Mendoza batting average' sports hall of fame. But he’s not awful in the turgid unwatchable way that, say, a Kate Hudson movie is awful. He’s fascinating/awful."
posted by sweetkid (215 comments total)

This just in: Awful Quarterback Unbeatable
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:12 PM on November 28, 2011 [3 favorites]

Where's your everloving FACTS now poindexter? HA HA HA HA HA *lightningprayer*
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:14 PM on November 28, 2011

Some fools just fail their way into success. Tebow is going to be president someday (hopefully after I am dead...)
posted by elwoodwiles at 9:16 PM on November 28, 2011 [4 favorites]

I'm not that much of a football fan, but living in the Denver area, it's been fascinating to see how this is playing out. It appears that he can throw long passes, but not short ones.
posted by lukemeister at 9:17 PM on November 28, 2011

He's one blide-side from a blitzing outside linebacker away from Jesus.
posted by bardic at 9:18 PM on November 28, 2011 [7 favorites]

As a friend of mine notes, if God really was personally favoring Tim Tebow, he could have just granted him the ability to throw a damn football.
posted by mhoye at 9:19 PM on November 28, 2011 [50 favorites]

Kyle Orton and Vince Young also "just won" at the beginnings of their careers (coincidentally also with excellent defenses). How'd that work out for them? Von Miller being LEGIT, Elvis Dumerville coming back from injury and Eric Decker making cirus catches left and right have more to do with Denver's resurgence than Tim Tebow. Though watching the option has been a lot of fun.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:21 PM on November 28, 2011 [8 favorites]

The Onion's been having some fun with Tim Teebow.
posted by Grimgrin at 9:22 PM on November 28, 2011 [3 favorites]

Leave it to autocorrect to fuck up an awesome name like Dumervil.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:22 PM on November 28, 2011

He's not much of a passer, but he seems to be tough enough to be a run-first NFL quarterback. Once he achieves more consistency in the pass game (not guaranteed to happen), he might be a pretty formidable matchup. FWIW, of the four losses suffered under Kyle Orton, three were by less than 6 points.

I agree that right now the Denver MVP is Von Miller, not Tim Tebow. If he doesn't drop Mathews for a loss last night, the Chargers probably make the field goal.
posted by ofthestrait at 9:22 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

"And when the Broncos started winning, that was when He carried you"
posted by lukemeister at 9:23 PM on November 28, 2011 [14 favorites]

I'm an atheist socialist liberal and I went to the University of Florida. I hope Tim Tebow wins 25 Super Bowl rings.
posted by penduluum at 9:24 PM on November 28, 2011 [9 favorites]

Editorialize much?
posted by oddman at 9:27 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

Read the article much?
posted by nathancaswell at 9:29 PM on November 28, 2011 [14 favorites]

The Denver Broncos defense is more responsible for these wins than Tebow is. Tebow is a talented, physical runner who can play ball control and string together first downs that lead to a score on a late drive -- that only wins games when the defense is keeping the opponent from getting two or three scores ahead.

Tebow would be a good tight end or slot receiver. Give coaches a whole off-season to study him on film and see how well he does next year.

Also: Cam Newton will have a Super Bowl ring before Tim Tebow does. Any takers on that bet?
posted by BitterOldPunk at 9:30 PM on November 28, 2011 [7 favorites]

[added quotation marks for the quote]
posted by taz at 9:32 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

BOP,

I haven't seen Carolina play. Do they have the players to keep improving?
posted by lukemeister at 9:33 PM on November 28, 2011

For those of us who've never seen an entire football game, can we get the tl;dr on Tim Tebow? He sounds like one of my favorite archetypes
posted by GilloD at 9:33 PM on November 28, 2011

BitterOldPunk: Only if I can bet on a push.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 9:33 PM on November 28, 2011 [3 favorites]

Lukemeister, you're missing out. Cam is already one of the 5 most fun QBs in the league to watch. Carolina is a blast. If they can get the D sorted out and Cam can cut down on the INTs before Steve Smith runs out of gas they will be dangerous.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:35 PM on November 28, 2011

As a CFL fan who doesn't watch much NFL it seems that either Tebow isn't that bad (scrambles really well from what I saw) or the Canadian QB's I know are awful or I just can't find good footage of Tebow's horribleness. Every video I can find shows a rough around the passes QB getting the job done and winning games. Does anyone have a great video of his supposed ineptitude?
posted by Cosine at 9:36 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

I did read the article, and copying a paragraph from the middle of the article to use as the FPP, instead of featuring the more salient (and interesting) point about option quarterbacks and their history in the NFL, is editorializing. (Also not everyone dislikes Tebow. So, some balance might have been nice. Enough with the derail though.)

I'm amused by the detractors that originally said he'd never be successful at all. Then they said that he couldn't sustain the success once teams got film on him, and now (that there is plenty of film) they say that it's next year that he'll be proven a fraud.

Keep moving those goal posts! You'll be right sooner or later.
posted by oddman at 9:37 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

"And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men."
posted by kirkaracha at 9:40 PM on November 28, 2011 [18 favorites]

It's worth noting that, during Tebow's 5-1 starting tenure, Denver has been outscored 134-102.
posted by aaronetc at 9:40 PM on November 28, 2011 [4 favorites]

tl;dr on Tim Tebow?

-Extravagantly religious; appeared in an anti-abortion ad while in college and regularly makes a spectacle of praying on the field.

-Was at first laughably inept as a passer, which is what quarterbacks are supposed to be good at.

-Somehow now managing to "win ugly" despite unimpressive-to-mediocre statistical performances. Debate is raging about whether this is a fluke or not.
posted by drjimmy11 at 9:42 PM on November 28, 2011 [15 favorites]

I'm just glad this thread exists, finally giving people on the Internet a place to argue about Tim Tebow.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:46 PM on November 28, 2011 [28 favorites]

Was at first Is laughably inept as a passer, which is what quarterbacks are supposed to be good at.

Jesus-boy can keep running that option all he wants. We'll see how long he lasts.

His accuracy is shit and his release is slow and he's only marginally better than where he was when he was drafted.

The Broncos are winning because they are playing tremendous defense.
posted by Bonzai at 9:51 PM on November 28, 2011 [7 favorites]

Some more links:

Roundtable about him (Skip Bayless is a little over the top in supporting him.)

A little bit of fun context.
posted by oddman at 9:55 PM on November 28, 2011

I will say this about TT, he doesn't turn the ball over. Can't deny that.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:56 PM on November 28, 2011 [3 favorites]

aaronetc,

I just added up the numbers and it's Broncos 116, opponents 120 since Tebow became starter. So statistically you'd expect the Broncos to be 3-3 instead of 5-1 over the last 6 games.
posted by lukemeister at 9:57 PM on November 28, 2011

Also, this thread?

Haters gonna hate.
posted by oddman at 9:58 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

You know something? Metafilter does sports really really well. These are always my favorite threads here.

Anyway, I'd been unable to watch any Tebow games until this weekend due to a lack of cable and not giving a damn about the Broncos, so I hadn't been following him too closely. The first time I saw him run the option against the Jets it looked comical to me, like he'd just dropped back and back and back until he realized he couldn't reach any of his receivers from there and just panicked. But he picked up the yards. And then he kept doing it.

It was ugly, but it was, indeed, mesmerizing.

So yeah, Slot receiver, sure. Given his size, maybe Halfback. But I predict it won't be long before the other teams shut down the option for good, and the D isn't enough to win it for them.
posted by Navelgazer at 10:00 PM on November 28, 2011 [2 favorites]

Not to defend Tebow ('cause I hate him) but running the option does eat up the clock, taking away time from the opposing team to score and allowing the defense to rest. If the defense holds up, they're going to hold the opponent to a low scoring game.

I'll also note that the Denver offensive line is doing a ridiculously good job of protecting Tebow, opening holes and blocking. If he played for the Bears he'd be dead by now.

The argument for Tebow is that his presence makes his team stronger, making up for his total lack of skill.

Yet, I just can't see this working against a truly dominate team.
posted by elwoodwiles at 10:00 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

I wonder how Chris Leak feels about this. I bet Tebow is still prank calling him.
posted by mullacc at 10:04 PM on November 28, 2011

From "Advanced NFL Stats" today:

Suppose the football gods gave us a test with the question, On net, has Tebow helped or hurt the Broncos' chances of winning since he became the starter? Show your work. I'd write down: Hurt. -0.18 WPA. And I'd be marked correct.

posted by bbuda at 10:04 PM on November 28, 2011 [2 favorites]

I'm not a fan of the over-the-top religious stuff, but I am a fan of the Baltimore Ravens, and I think the Trent Dilfer comparisons may be inevitable. Everyone said you couldn't possibly win with him, right up until he was holding the trophy.

Sure they had debatably the best defense in league history, but Dilfer didn't turn it over and did everything he needed to do to win.
posted by drjimmy11 at 10:07 PM on November 28, 2011 [3 favorites]

Oh, and of course what I saw was the Chargers game, not the Jets game. I kind of binged on Football this weekend.
posted by Navelgazer at 10:08 PM on November 28, 2011

There is no such thing as a "run first" QB in the NFL. This ain't college -- the defenders are too huge, fast, and strong for somebody of Tebow's size to get tackled and/or sacked 20 times a game.

Or to put a fine point on it, there are "run first" QB's in the NFL. They are also known as "career eventually ended by catastrophic knee injury and/or multiple concussion" QB's.

I'm a certified Tebow hater but, out of the goodness of my black atheist heart, it's pretty much cruel and unusual punishment to put a guy in at QB who can run and can't throw, because sooner rather than later the odds are going to catch up to him and he's going to get smeared into the turf.
posted by bardic at 10:09 PM on November 28, 2011 [9 favorites]

Yet, I just can't see this working against a truly dominate team.

New England by no means has a dominant or even good defense but they play Denver in week 15 and I think it will be a good litmus test. A Belichick defense is going to have good discipline, stay in their gaps, and should defend the option well (unlike Oakland). They also don't play a ton of man (which makes it easier to scramble on non-designed runs) and bring pressure and lose contain (Jets). The Dolphins tried to run a little speed option with Pat White (very successful option QB in college) vs the Pats a few years ago and the Pats played it very well. This was a couple games after the Wildcat unveiling. If the Denver option works against a Belichick defense that will be a sign it has legs.
posted by nathancaswell at 10:10 PM on November 28, 2011 [5 favorites]

"Watching him is like watching Sarah Palin be interviewed by someone off the Murdoch payroll. Disaster lurks, but the prurient/erotic ardor of their admirers fills the air around them and you cannot look away."

Hahaha!!!. It's funny because it's true.
posted by SakuraK at 10:11 PM on November 28, 2011 [5 favorites]

As a long-suffering (of late) Broncos fan, I'll simply say that Tim's religion, his throwing motion, his completion percentage, and his long-term viability concern me not a whit. It's just fun to win again.

(Also, Von Miller his a mean hipster baller, glasses and all.)
posted by Scoop at 10:11 PM on November 28, 2011

drjimmy, this does kind of remind me of the Ravens, although that defense they had that year was the stuff of legends vs. a very good defense that the Broncos have now. Dilfer's job was to not screw up the game and let the defense win it. The comparisons will write themselves.
posted by azpenguin at 10:14 PM on November 28, 2011

Comparisons to the 2000 Ravens are reasonable, but c'mon -- the Broncos D isn't nearly in that same class of awesome.

Like I said, in all honestly, I hate Tebow but I'd hate to see the guy get blown out of the league due to injury. I won't chortle when it happens but if they keep running that high school offense, it's going to happen, and it's going to be ugly.

I'm talking Theisman ugly (not a video link).
posted by bardic at 10:21 PM on November 28, 2011

I'll tell you what, I was not a Tebow fan during his college days (the media hype was embarrassing, and I was not a fan of using football as a pulpit) but I have been enjoying watching him play the last few weeks and not just because he's on my fantasy team.

No, I mostly have been enjoying watching Tebow make NFL analyst heads explode. For all the rhetoric about how he can't be an NFL quarterback, his record suggests otherwise, and it's been fun watching the blowhards on ESPN try to make sense of it. I still wouldn't call myself a fan but it's interesting to see someone shake up the perceptions of what a quarterback should be, even if it's only a little bit. It helps that the Lions have handed the Broncos their only loss with him as a starter, too.

(That said, it's hard not to think he wouldn't have been a better running back or wide receiver, or possibly one of the most dominant tight ends in the game. But you don't get media attention for your mission if you aren't QB.)
posted by HostBryan at 10:24 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

Not actually good at the sport but "just knows how to win"? Has football found its David Eckstein?
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 10:24 PM on November 28, 2011 [5 favorites]

I don't really buy the "Tebow is going to get hurt" argument. Dude is enormous. If a running back can handle 20 carries a game I don't see why he can't. This isn't Denard Robinson we're talking about, Tebow is built like a linebacker.
posted by nathancaswell at 10:27 PM on November 28, 2011

[...] did everything he needed to do to win.

Whenever I hear someone say this or one of its variants, my brain automatically translates it to "has the minimum possible talent not to ruin it for his more talented teammates".

See also David Eckstein, Derek Fisher, every starting pitcher ever who goes 15-5 with a 4.5 ERA.
posted by auto-correct at 10:29 PM on November 28, 2011 [6 favorites]

"If a running back can handle 20 carries a game I don't see why he can't."

Running backs are built and trained to run straight ahead into the defense. Not that that's in any way an easy job, but at least you know where the hits are coming from (I mean, maybe on some crazy reverse play you could get hit unexpectedly, but that'd be unusual).

Even though he is the chosen son of Jeebus, Tebow is still lining up at quarterback. He _has_ to drop back at least a few times per game, and this is where blindside issues come in.

Like I said, I hope he doesn't get hurt. But if he does, I told you so.
posted by bardic at 10:31 PM on November 28, 2011 [2 favorites]

So if he's going to get hurt on a passing play what does them running the zone read and triple option have to do with it? According to your logic the offense they're running actually will help in that regard, since he's throwing like 15-20 times a game instead of 30-40.
posted by nathancaswell at 10:35 PM on November 28, 2011

Err, forgot to add -- it's not just that his throws are bad. What's worse, his release time is terrible. Lots of critics said you could teach him to throw a tight spiral, but his main problem was clunky mechanics when it came to getting rid of the damn ball.

When he does drop back, he's a sitting duck. And he does have to drop back a few times, lest defenses just start putting eight guys up front.

That would also spell disaster for his knees and/or brain.
posted by bardic at 10:36 PM on November 28, 2011

I was not a Tebow fan during his college days (the media hype was embarrassing)

Hahaha, yeah, remember how Tebow was widely considered football Jesus, except by people who hated him, which was everyone? That's some PhD.-level diamond-water paradox shit right there.

I went to Georgia, that has nothing to do with this, what are you saying, look over there a plane!
posted by Snarl Furillo at 10:36 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

Jesus, once able to turn water into wine, now reduced to helping one team beat other sub .500 teams in the pathetic AFC West.
posted by Ironmouth at 10:38 PM on November 28, 2011 [17 favorites]

I miss the image tag sometimes.
posted by bardic at 10:39 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

I think we can all agree that Tebow has the worst release since Byron Leftwich graced us with that Satchel Paige windup of his. Dan Marino he ain't.
posted by nathancaswell at 10:42 PM on November 28, 2011

All the Tebow lovers think the Tebow-haters only hate him because he is religious.

All the Tebow haters think the Tebow-lovers only love him because he is religious.

(As an atheist, Gators / Steelers fan, I think he's overrated, but seems to be a nice enough guy even given some of his odious views [which are still less odious than some of the views held by beloved friends and relatives])
posted by dirigibleman at 10:56 PM on November 28, 2011 [5 favorites]

Kate Hudson might not have the pectorals that Tebow has, (or any pectorals) but she knows how to call a Dice-Left-Ice Cream-654 Omaha Flare.
posted by Nick Verstayne at 11:05 PM on November 28, 2011 [2 favorites]

I think he could win every single game for the rest of the season and Elway and Fox would be looking for ways to get rid of him. In fact, they probably would love it because it would mean they could maybe pick up some decent draft picks for their trouble. Those two obviously don't want him, so it seems hard to imagine him sticking it out. If he wasn't such a nice guy this would already be a disaster.

I don't have super strong feelings about him personally. The religion is absurd, of course, but whatever. It's the NFL, I find it hard to get too worked up about it being super religious because it's probably among the most conservative cultural institutions going. His success does seem very fluky though. The competition he's faced was not great and I expect them to get pushed around big time when they face tough opponents, especially in cold weather situations where defenses don't find the pass option credible.
posted by feloniousmonk at 11:12 PM on November 28, 2011

The Broncos play the Vikings this weekend and as a Vikings fan I'm curious about the game. The Vikings are pretty bad this year, but they do have the #9 rushing defense this season, better than any of the Broncos' opponents so far except the Dolphins, who lost to the Broncos in overtime.

On the other hand, the Vikings are #29 against the pass, so it's possible they're even worse at pass defense than he is at passing. It's a resistible force meeting a movable object.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:28 PM on November 28, 2011 [5 favorites]

Tebow's total passing yards per game: 79, 161, 172, 124, 69, 104, and 143. He went 9/18 in that last game; the 50% completion percentage is his season high so far.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:35 PM on November 28, 2011 [1 favorite]

The Denver Broncos defense is more responsible for these wins than Tebow is.

I think Dennis Allen would make a fine head coach for the Eagles next year. (Dawkins can come too)
posted by furiousxgeorge at 11:43 PM on November 28, 2011

All the Tebow lovers think the Tebow-haters only hate him because he is religious.
All the Tebow haters think the Tebow-lovers only love him because he is religious.

And the grown-ups pay attention to the guy (or not) as a football player and only as a football player, and recognize those obsessing over the guy's religion as either children or bigots.

If he were my neighbor, I'd care whether he mowed his lawn. If he were my spouse, I'd care if he slept around. And if I were his pastor, then sure, I'd care deeply about his religion. But he's a complete stranger who plays football for a living. My interest in him ends with the game clock.
posted by red clover at 12:00 AM on November 29, 2011 [4 favorites]

And the grown-ups pay attention to the guy (or not) as a football player and only as a football player, and recognize those obsessing over the guy's religion as either children or bigots.

Dude. If you're not letting off-field behaviour affect how you enjoy sports, you're missing half the fun.

I refuse to live in a world where I can't irrationally hate players for reasons that have nothing to do with their play, or even their goodness as human beings.

THAT'S RIGHT LEBRON JAMES, I'M LOOKING AT YOU.
posted by auto-correct at 12:15 AM on November 29, 2011 [22 favorites]

And the grown-ups pay attention to the guy (or not) as a football player and only as a football player, and recognize those obsessing over the guy's religion as either children or bigots.

Word up. He's an adequate QB for Denver right now. The way their defense is playing, one wonders how dominant they'd be if they had a QB who was good or even great. Yes, they've won games while he's been playing, but I'm unconvinced he's the main factor.
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:28 AM on November 29, 2011

Has football found its David Eckstein?.
Hope he's more David Icke, that would be hilarious.
posted by arcticseal at 1:31 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

At least Tebow can fall back on a career as a circumciser.
posted by bardic at 2:54 AM on November 29, 2011

The shocking thing about Denver isn't that they actually have a useful quarterback right now. The shocking thing is they actually have a defense that is playing well. That's the real story.

And is Tebow is able to get more than 50% completion this week, I'll say he's improving.
posted by Stynxno at 4:59 AM on November 29, 2011

He's number one in the only statistic that counts: he's the man with the top jersey sales in the NFL.
posted by peeedro at 5:13 AM on November 29, 2011

Tebow is a sideshow, a distraction. The main event is the Broncos D - and Fox and Elway are probably pleased as punch everyone is focused on Scrambling Jesus instead of the massive brick wall they've put on the field. It's not Superbowl-Ravens-good, but everyone's concentrating on how to stop Tebow in the 4th quarter, not how to get past the defense the other three quarters.

I wanna see how he does when Brady, Brees or Rodgers rings up a 20 point lead. Those guys are doing bad things to good defenses, and you need to shoot it out to keep up.
posted by Slap*Happy at 5:22 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

My interest in him ends with the game clock.

Know anyone who's ever needed an abortion?
posted by mediareport at 5:28 AM on November 29, 2011 [8 favorites]

I'm a Gator and when he was our QB I cheered for him. I still think he's the greatest college player of all time (and he should have won two Heisman's). But when he went to the NFL I was ready to bid him a fond farewell and welcome him back for the occasional alumni weekend.

But the amazing amount of vitriol spewed at him from all corners makes me hope he wins the next 20 Super Bowls. It's amazing that in a country and a sporting culture which supposedly cheers for underdogs, Tebow is being pilloried or, lately, given back-handed respect. (The same place and culture that blasts LeBron for joining the Heat and not winning "the right way," the same place and culture that derides Duke as often as it can, but cheers for Rudy.) If the experts are right and Tebow is beyond hope, doesn't that make him a real-life Rudy?

Also, people, the various slurs thrown around like "Scrambling Jesus" and "Jesus=boy" are really offensive. Please stop. You wouldn't tolerate someone using racially insensitive slurs on Metafilter. It's not cool to use slurs just because it's about a group you personally dislike. Maybe you didn't realize that these names are hateful and offensive. OK, now you know. Please stop.
posted by oddman at 5:30 AM on November 29, 2011 [6 favorites]

If they can get the D sorted out and Cam can cut down on the INTs

Key. And it may not be solvable. Then again, I thought Cutler wasn't solvable, and it turned out the problem was the offensive coordinator assuming he had the comeback tour of the Greatest Show On Turf.

But I don't see Tebow working as a three step drop QB. The thing that bothers me is how bad he is in the pocket. He should be another Ben Roethlisberger. I don't see Newton succeeding in the long term unless he really focuses -- the book is being written on both of them. Between Newton and Tebow, I think Newton has the better chance of being a franchise QB.

Of course, the biggest advantage Denver has this year is they're playing in the AFC west. The biggest problem is that they drew the NFC North as the cross-conference this year, which has turned into the surprising monster conference. GRB 11-0, DET 7-4, CHI 7-4 and MIN 2-9, and two of Chicago's and Detroit's losses are in-conference (to each other and GRB.) They do get the break that Cutler will be out and Hanie isn't ready, but even then, the Bears damn near beat the best team in that division.

Denver has a rough road ahead. They get two easy games (@MIN, KC), two hard (CHI, @BUF) and one very hard (NE). The lucky break is getting the Bears at home without Cutler (otherwise, that would be two very hard games) and the unlucky break is playing at Buffalo, which is 5-1 at home, and 1-4 on the road.
posted by eriko at 5:55 AM on November 29, 2011

A QB can get away with what Tebow does in college. In the NFL, though, you have people who are a lot faster and a lot bigger. Running the way he does, Tebow is going to get his clock cleaned, sooner or later. There's a reason teams don't play this way.
posted by spaltavian at 5:58 AM on November 29, 2011

The Broncos are playing the Patriots in a couple weeks. I can't wait to see how God's Servant does against the team from Gaylibrulstan.

In his house at Foxboro, humorless Bill Belichick waits dreaming.
posted by Mayor Curley at 6:08 AM on November 29, 2011 [4 favorites]

It's amazing that in a country and a sporting culture which supposedly cheers for underdogs, Tebow is being pilloried or, lately, given back-handed respect.

The underdog in this scenario is a guy named Kyle Orton, a mid-career quarterback who's been unceremoniously dumped from his job in Denver despite playing better than the more hyped Tebow, and who is, as we speak, the second-string quarterback for the 4-7 Chiefs. If he can win the starting position and lead Kansas City to a winning record? That's a great underdog story.

Orton is also probably pretty well aware of the dangers of extrapolating too much from a few wins; his Broncos started the 2009 season 6-0. Orton beat the Patriots, leading a 98-yard drive to force overtime and completing 35 of 48 passes. I wonder if Tim Tebow can do that?
posted by escabeche at 6:10 AM on November 29, 2011 [7 favorites]

Metafilter: the prurient/erotic ardor of their admirers fills the air around them.
posted by jquinby at 6:20 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

From what I heard about Orton, he and his agent, upon hearing of Cutler's thumb injury requested that Orton be waived in hopes that he might be able to get picked up by the Bears, since he wasn't going to be playing in Denver anytime soon. Unfortunately, the Chiefs and the Cowboys submitted claims as well (the Chiefs out of legitimate need, the Cowboys purportedly to fuck with a potential wild card rival), so the Bears...

I just can't go on.
posted by Ghidorah at 6:29 AM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

I generally only watch college football. After Tebow's last season and every football analyst in the world telling me that he wouldn't cut it in the NFL, at least as a quarterback, I thought I'd someday hear about an uninspiring end to his football career. To find out that not only is he the starting quarterback for Denver, and winning, is pretty fascinating. For a change, I'm inspired to tune in to professional football.
posted by Atreides at 6:36 AM on November 29, 2011

Also, people, the various slurs thrown around like "Scrambling Jesus" and "Jesus=boy" are really offensive. Please stop. You wouldn't tolerate someone using racially insensitive slurs on Metafilter. It's not cool to use slurs just because it's about a group you personally dislike. Maybe you didn't realize that these names are hateful and offensive.

Fuck. That. Noise.

Being a part of a race or gender isn't a goddamn choice, and therefore, mocking those things is cruel and mean. religious behavior IS a choice. How dare you equate the two. He is in fact a part of a religion that is the majority religion in the country he is a part of. Not exactly the oppressed minority. Christians are not victims in this country; more often than not, they're the victimizers.

So fuck him and fuck his religion.
posted by grubi at 6:55 AM on November 29, 2011 [32 favorites]

I will say this about TT, he doesn't turn the ball over. Can't deny that.

He doesn't turn over the ball because he rarely throws it, and when he does, it's usually so far off the mark that not only does his receiver not have a chance to catch it, but neither does the defense.
posted by notmydesk at 7:08 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

> Being a part of a race or gender isn't a goddamn choice, and therefore, mocking those
> things is cruel and mean. religious behavior IS a choice. How dare you equate the two.

So if your race was a thing you could choose, grubi would be totally OK with Klan? Whatever their chosen target groups may be, those doing the vilifying are quite comparable, all of them being deep in the EW domain.
posted by jfuller at 7:10 AM on November 29, 2011

Few people make fun of Steve Young because of his religion, and there is a huge cadre of Mormon hating evangelicals out there who love to fan the flames of sectarian hatred. Young isn't just Mormon, he is as devout as they come.

Mr. Tebow might be well advised to heed the Bible he purports to follow: Matthew 6:6. Not to mention his involvement with the despicable James Dobson and his hate organization.

All that being said, I don't care about Tebow one way or the other. But I do love me some option football!
posted by Xoebe at 7:11 AM on November 29, 2011

I will say this about TT, he doesn't turn the ball over. Can't deny that.

Except to the Lions. Twice. And both were immediately turned into touchdowns.

So yeah, whatevs.
posted by grubi at 7:11 AM on November 29, 2011

Tim Tebow and others like him are Exhibit A for why assigning quarterbacks, as opposed to teams, a win-loss record is insane. If Tebow is 5-1, so is rookie d-lineman Mitch Unrein.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:13 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

Whatever their chosen target groups may be, those doing the vilifying are quite comparable, all of them being deep in the EW domain.

Nope. He belongs to a group of people who believe that they are on a mission from God to make sure Filipino boys have the tips of their penises chopped off because God checks bracelets on the way in to Club Heaven. He belongs to a group of people who wish to put women's health in jeopardy because a clump of non-sentient cells are more important in their eyes.

He is not a victim.
posted by grubi at 7:13 AM on November 29, 2011 [12 favorites]

Young isn't just Mormon, he is as devout as they come.

He is in fact a descendant of one of the religion's founding fathers. But his behavior has been above general criticism. In fact, he and his wife have come out in favor of marriage equality, contrary to the church he is a part of.

So it isn't merely religion I criticize; it's what you do with it.
posted by grubi at 7:18 AM on November 29, 2011 [5 favorites]

My ma's from Colorado and I grew up in a rabid Broncos household. Denver's had weirdo religious nuts before (for instance Jason Elam, who gives new meaning to both components of "shitkicking conservative") but they've kept it off the field. I would love to judge him only by what he does on the game clock, but he's made that impossible as a matter of choice, and continues to do so every damn time he steps foot on the field.

Tebow's grandstanding EVERY. SINGLE. TIME the cameras zoom in on him honestly makes it hard to enjoy the franchise I grew up with, because I am constantly reminded of the fact that if it were up to him, he'd endanger my health and my happiness without a second thought. I know this because he said as much on national television. Fuck Tebow. You're goddamn right I'm going to cheer every time he gets sacked.

As ever, I pine for the eminently reasonable and entirely likeable Jake Plummer.
posted by superfluousm at 7:19 AM on November 29, 2011 [12 favorites]

From what I heard about Orton...I just can't go on.

This pretty much sums it up.
posted by clearly at 7:20 AM on November 29, 2011 [4 favorites]

Too bad Adrian Peterson's out this week. We could've seen Scrambling Jesus vs. Purple Jesus.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:25 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Tim Tebow feels like the second coming of Doug Flutie -- a miracle worker in college who gets to the NFL and becomes a fan favorite despite clearly being outmatched and outgunned.

Flutie went to the CFL, learned to throw better, set all kinds of passing records, then had a late career renaissance in the early part of the last decade.

The difference is that Tim Tebow is a far better runner than Flutie.

Meanwhile, Cam Newton... yeah, he's kinda good. What nathancaswell said upthread -- if the Panthers can get a D and stock up on hoss WRs they're going to be very competitive in an already very competitive division. As for Cam's INT problem of late (none last week, I'll note) I will say he's a rookie QB, and INTs are the bane of rookie QBs. The question is whether he can learn to become an elite QB or whether he'll plateau like Michael Vick did.

But it's clear now the best QB on that Florida team of the last six years was Cam Newton. Pity he had to go steal that laptop -- maybe Florida would have four crystal footballs instead of two.
posted by dw at 7:30 AM on November 29, 2011

Being a part of a race or gender isn't a goddamn choice, and therefore, mocking those things is cruel and mean. religious behavior IS a choice. How dare you equate the two. He is in fact a part of a religion that is the majority religion in the country he is a part of. Not exactly the oppressed minority. Christians are not victims in this country; more often than not, they're the victimizers.

While I don't disagree with some of your points, I find the idea that it's somehow "okay" to make fun of someone for something they chose to make no sense. It's rude to mock people...period. Whether or not someone "chose" the attribute that you're ridiculing is really beside the point.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 7:35 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

It's worth keeping in mind that Tebow ran 21 times for 67 yards against one of the worst rush defenses in the league last week. Maybe he just had a bad game, but if it turns out he can't run, either, then the Divine might have to find a new vessel for its AFC West machinations.
posted by Copronymus at 7:37 AM on November 29, 2011

The difference is that Tim Tebow is a far better runner than Flutie.

Flutie had a better arm and quicker release. That's the difference. Flutie was also a great scrambler, but didn't have the size to do what tebow does.
posted by justgary at 7:38 AM on November 29, 2011

Cam is far better at this point in his career than Vick was. He doesn't have the unbelievable quickness and top end speed but his pocket presence is immeasurably better. That's what impresses me most about Newton. He looks like a 3 year vet the way he steps up in the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and looks to throw rather than run in the face of pressure. It took Vick 10 years to develop that. Newton does not play like a rookie at all. Just his entire body language convinces me that he is totally in control and the game doesn't seem fast for him the way it generally is for rookie QBs. I have little doubt that he will be an elite QB in 5 years time.
posted by nathancaswell at 7:38 AM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

As the founder of the HeMan Tebow Haters Club, please consider this an official endorsement of all Tebow mockery.
posted by Dr. Zira at 7:38 AM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

It's rude to mock people...period. Whether or not someone "chose" the attribute that you're ridiculing is really beside the point.

I don't mock Tebow for his religion. I criticize him for it.
posted by grubi at 7:39 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Tim Tebow feels like the second coming of Doug Flutie

Except, you know, the fact that Flutie could actually throw the damned football.
posted by Chrischris at 7:40 AM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

He doesn't have the unbelievable quickness and top end speed but his pocket presence is immeasurably better. That's what impresses me most about Newton. He looks like a 3 year vet the way he steps up in the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and looks to throw rather than run in the face of pressure.

Watching the Bears play Carolina what struck me most was how often he did all that while also stepping effortlessly out of a tackle. If they had gotten a sack half the time they got a hand on him that would have been a blowout.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 7:44 AM on November 29, 2011

if it turns out he can't run, either

He can run. He doesn't have elite top end speed but he has elite burst and acceleration, you can see it on the field and it's backed up by his short shuttle and three cone drill times from the combine. He also is having a dramatic effect on Willis McGahee's production. Mobile QBs tend to do that because they add another threat to account for out of the backfield. Happened with Vick/McCoy in Philly, Young/Johnson in Tennessee and now we're seeing it with Tebow in Denver. It's no coincidence that McGahee's YPC has gone up a full yard (a tremendous amount) and he's suddenly churning out 100 yard games.

I am by no means a Tebow fan (though I do find the option vastly entertaining)... I fully expect the lack of passing ability and release to catch up to him eventually but let's give credit where it's due... Tebow has a, shall we say, unique skillset and you can see it's impact on the run game.
posted by nathancaswell at 7:45 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

I don't mock Tebow for his religion. I criticize him for it.

But that's changing what you said before. Your comment was that mocking people for something they can't change is cruel and mean, with the obvious implication that mocking someone for something they can change isn't. If I started mocking people for being accountants, reading books, or living in Florida, I would still be being mean, even though those things can all be changed. The "choice" distinction is one without a difference.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 7:49 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Newton's also 5 inches taller than Vick and has a straight over the top delivery so he doesn't have the same issues Vick has with seeing over the D-line / getting balls tipped. I think this has a lot to do with why Vick looked to get outside the pocket so much earlier in his career. Vick's pretty short for a QB and his release point is low, though not as low as someone like Young or Rivers.
posted by nathancaswell at 7:52 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

As a life long Denver fan, I just find it odd that they're winning games despite the QB and because of the Defense, not the other way around.
posted by Gygesringtone at 8:02 AM on November 29, 2011 [4 favorites]

The most interesting football comment I heard was a guy on the radio (can't remember his name--he was some pro sports journalist) who said that the benefit the Tebow surprise attack has is this: when the quarterback runs that gives the offense one extra blocker. This is something the opposition coaches and players universally dislike playing against and preparing for. Once he has been through the circuit and teams have effectively schemed against him, or in an important game against very capable opponents, the likelihood is the Tebow surprise attack will no longer work well and the success he currently enjoys will disappear fast.

I am glad I am not a Broncos fan.
posted by bukvich at 8:07 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

The most apt thing I heard about Tebow's football issues is that he doesn't read the defense until after the snap.
posted by grubi at 8:10 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

As a life long Denver fan, I just find it odd that they're winning games despite the QB and because of the Defense, not the other way around.

Orange Crush + Craig Morton check in to say there's nothing new under the sun.
posted by notyou at 8:13 AM on November 29, 2011 [4 favorites]

The most apt thing I heard about Tebow's football issues is that he doesn't read the defense until after the snap.

That might explain some of his success, since I've heard (but haven't seen) that Denver is running a lot of option plays for him, which typically require a post-snap read, rather than pre-snap reads NFL offenses use.

I don't think the option will work for very long in the NFL, once teams start to expect it, but the element of surprise alone might be enough to win the AFC West this year.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 8:20 AM on November 29, 2011

tick tock tick tock tick tock ... it will soon be all over.
posted by incandissonance at 8:32 AM on November 29, 2011

It's no coincidence that McGahee's YPC has gone up a full yard (a tremendous amount) and he's suddenly churning out 100 yard games.

Well, McGahee had 3 100 yard games in the Orton Era and has only had 2 under Tebow, so I'm not sure it's really all that sudden. Even granting that McGahee has been better with the threat of Tebow, it hasn't really translated into an offense that's anywhere close to good. During their 5-1 run, they've scored more than 20 points only once, and that's not going to be enough to win consistently.

In the end, I don't think the extra 100 rushing yards they're getting in the Tebow Offense is enough to offset the even greater number of passing yards they're losing because he can't throw. Scorelines like Denver 17 - Kansas City 10 and Denver 18 - Miami 15 should be taken as signs that the offense isn't working and not as testaments to the amazing success of a winning attitude.
posted by Copronymus at 8:37 AM on November 29, 2011

The Denver running game is kind of a Frankenstein built around traditional stuff... ISO, Power, some QB Power from the shotgun (similar to what Fox did in Carolina when injuries forced him to play DeAngelo Williams at QB that one game several years ago). I don't see Tebow calling a lot of audibles at the line off a pre-snap read, but he has done it occasionally. Then there's a large amount of zone read, which requires a single post-snap read of an unblocked end. They run that probably 10-15 snaps a game. They're running a little triple option too, you can occasionally see they have a pitch built in... even if Tebow is keeping it himself he's still making the read. Probably like 5-10 snaps a game. Then there's a fair amount of trickery and misdirection they play with just to keep the D on it's heels, Eddie Royal reverses and stuff. They've been pretty creative with it, probably 2-3 whacky plays a game.

The passing game is VERY conservative, and is really not requiring Tebow to work through progressions and read the defense after the snap. It's a mix of high reward plays (bombs off play action to Decker) and very safe short stuff, a lot of RB screens, tunnel screens, bubble screens etc. Occasionally they are forced to throw some more traditional passing plays in there and that's when Tebow gets into trouble. If you get them into 3rd and long they're kind of fucked because the coaching staff clearly does not trust Tebow in these situations.

The one game where they really tried to install a traditional passing attack (Detroit) Tebow looked terrible. Held onto the ball way too long and seemed very slow going through his reads.
posted by nathancaswell at 8:41 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

tick tock tick tock tick tock ... it will soon be all over.

What, Tebow's fame? Doubtful. He's THE Christian Football Player now. I know tons of Chrstian people (women, mostly) who adore him. They don't like football, couldn't care less about it, but they'll wear a Tim Tebow jersey. He could retire after this season, and have any number of opportunities available to him: book deals, TV hosting gigs, speaking engagements. He's gonna be just fine whenever his football career is over, he's not going anywhere.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 8:42 AM on November 29, 2011

I'm amused by the detractors that originally said he'd never be successful at all. Then they said that he couldn't sustain the success once teams got film on him, and now (that there is plenty of film) they say that it's next year that he'll be proven a fraud.
Keep moving those goal posts! You'll be right sooner or later.
posted by odd man

Of course they will, because he's a terrible quarterback. Time is on their side, the side of reality. Not yours, the side of blind college fandom. That he's had a run of wins doesn't change that fact. Three years from now when Tebow is either injured, a 3rd string quarterback, an insurance salesman, or saving people on the 700 club, you'll realize that.

New England by no means has a dominant or even good defense but they play Denver in week 15 and I think it will be a good litmus test.
posted by nathancaswell

There's no need for a test. The only thing that matters on any game day with Tebow at quarterback is how many points the Denver defense gives up and how many yards they gain on the ground. 17 points? Denver and Tebow has a chance, because any team would have a chance. 36? It's going to take a miracle.

As a long-suffering (of late) Broncos fan, I'll simply say that Tim's religion, his throwing motion, his completion percentage, and his long-term viability concern me not a whit. It's just fun to win again.
posted by Scoop

I can understand that. But if you want to continue to win, you should be concerned.

For all the rhetoric about how he can't be an NFL quarterback, his record suggests otherwise, and it's been fun watching the blowhards on ESPN try to make sense of it.
posted by HostBryan at 12:24 AM on November 29

You realize that eventually you're going to have to mute your TV, right. Because eventually they're going to be proven right, and they're not going to shut up about it.

(As an atheist, Gators / Steelers fan, I think he's overrated, but seems to be a nice enough guy even given some of his odious views [which are still less odious than some of the views held by beloved friends and relatives])
posted by dirigibleman at 12:56 AM on November 29

Overrated? How is this even possible?

I think he could win every single game for the rest of the season and Elway and Fox would be looking for ways to get rid of him.
posted by felonious monk

Using an impossible scenerio doesn't really prove anything. It isn't Elway's job to get excited about the streak. It's his job to find a quality quarterback for his team, and he knows Tebow isn't that guy. On Tebow's side, if he continues to win 5 out of every 6 games, Elway won't be able to get rid of him. I doubt that happens.

And the grown-ups pay attention to the guy (or not) as a football player and only as a football player, and recognize those obsessing over the guy's religion as either children or bigots.

If he were my neighbor, I'd care whether he mowed his lawn. If he were my spouse, I'd care if he slept around. And if I were his pastor, then sure, I'd care deeply about his religion. But he's a complete stranger who plays football for a living. My interest in him ends with the game clock.
posted by red clover

Sports is one of the aspects of adulthood where you can act like a child. You might as well root for laundry, or card board cutouts. You might be able to find joy in sports with all the color and personalities ripped away, but you are in a huge minority.

Also, people, the various slurs thrown around like "Scrambling Jesus" and "Jesus=boy" are really offensive. Please stop. You wouldn't tolerate someone using racially insensitive slurs on Metafilter. It's not cool to use slurs just because it's about a group you personally dislike. Maybe you didn't realize that these names are hateful and offensive. OK, now you know. Please stop.
posted by odd man

Considering that Tebow throws his faith in public view at every possible chance, and is supportive of many views that I consider harmful and that directly affect me, I really don't give a damn if Tebow has to put up with a few 'jesus-boy' comments. If Kurt Warner thinks you should tone it down maybe it's time to take a look in the mirror (though I have little doubt Tebow will never change).

I'm an atheist socialist liberal and I went to the University of Florida. I hope Tim Tebow wins 25 Super Bowl rings.

You're going to be very, very disappointed.

you can see it on the field and it's backed up by his short shuttle and three cone drill times from the combine

Short shuttle and three cone drill times? Haha, please. Surely you don't need a list of NFL athletes that had great combine scores but bombed on the field. Tebow can run the ball. He is not an elite runner, period, and he certainly doesn't run well enough to make up for his lack of throwing skills. The bottom line is that Tebow will have to miraculously become a better passer or he will eventually fail. The fantasy that his running is good enough to keep him a viable quarterback in the future is a laughable fantasy.
posted by justgary at 8:44 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

The only reasonable response to Tebow the Evangelical is to go to a Broncos game and hold up a sign that says Matthew 6:5-6.

And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men....when thou prayest, enter into thy closet and when thou has shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret....

If someone did that, I would gay marry them in a heart beat.

As far as Tebow the Football Player, for all the talk surrounding him, it will start to be forgotten with one bad (worse?) game, as well it should, and in a few years, he'll just be another flash-in-the-pan pundits used to fill air time. He's the sports equivalent of Herman Cain; fun for people who make their living playing 'what if?' to twist around hypothetically, especially because he's somebody who's going to draw attention and devotion based on past loyalties and unique characteristics, but eventually the world will realize he doesn't have the talent for the position he's in and has only looked good based on a strange continuing confluence of events surrounding him. Losing to the nothing-special Vikings would be the beginning of the end, and I'm betting it will be.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 8:44 AM on November 29, 2011 [4 favorites]

The modern version of the Wildcat was debuted against the New England Patriots in the end of their dynasty years. The Miami Dolphins absolutely crushed NE that Sunday, and went on to an 11-5 record that year. This from a team that was left for dead, going 1-15 the year before. The Wildcat was really a one-year fad, though: as teams adopted it, other teams learned to defend against it.

What the Broncos are doing with Tebow right now is very similar. This style of of offense is so completely different from most NFL teams that they are gaining a surprise advantage which lets them overcome their skill deficit. And lets be clear: I can throw better passes within 10 yards than Tim Tebow can, and I haven't played competitive football of any kind in nearly two decades. =) But lets also be clear: for as dumb as Tebow is while throwing, he is smart while running. And he can air it down the field for 50/50 balls as good as almost any other NFL quarterback.

Let me translate for poker players: the Broncos couldn't find a good pair all day. But they were losing their blinds and had to push in with something. They did, and got lucky. Then it happened again. And a loss. Then a win again and again. Now people are going to pay attention to the short stack.
posted by andreaazure at 8:44 AM on November 29, 2011

New England by no means has a dominant or even good defense but they play Denver in week 15 and I think it will be a good litmus test.

Have you seen New England's secondary this year? I don't think the Broncos are going to win, but Tebow could actually have a decent passing performance. On the other hand, you could grab 11 random MeFites and New England would give up at least one long pass.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 8:51 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

A reading from the Book of Comebacks, Verses 3-13:

Hast thou seen my anointed, TEBOW
For verily, there is none like him.
Let the heathen rage, for my BLESSING is upon him,
And I shall smite down those who mock him
Hurling them from their high places into
A slough of despond,
Until the LAMENTATIONS of their women
Fill the air, and they shall know him in his GREATNESS.

Let not the Chief nor the Raider lay strong hands upon him
For my WRATH shall blaze up against them;
And let the Charger give way before him
So that the scribes compose paens to his glory
And the minstrels sing A NEW SONG to his reign.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:58 AM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

Have you seen New England's secondary this year? I don't think the Broncos are going to win, but Tebow could actually have a decent passing performance.

New England is a bend-but don't break D. They actually don't give up a ton of long passes, they just can't get off the field on third down. It's been death by a thousand cuts for them all year. They're getting a little more aggressive as the year goes along but generally they try to force you to execute over and over and over again. I don't see Tebow having a ton of success throwing against a D like that. Your Drew Breeses and Rodgers of the world, however, are going to pick that kind of D apart. Eli Manning and Roethlisberger certainly did.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:01 AM on November 29, 2011

New England by no means has a dominant or even good defense but they play Denver in week 15 and I think it will be a good litmus test.
posted by nathancaswell

There's no need for a test.

There's already been a test. Detroit @ Denver. Tebow went 18 for 39, 172 yds (4.4 ypa), 1 garbage time TD, 1 INT (returned 100 yards for a TD), a passer rating of 56.8, 3 fumbles (one returned for a TD). Look at the highlights, too. The guy had no pocket and was under pressure more than 90% of the time.

He didn't just fail the test; he got embarrassed.
posted by grubi at 9:09 AM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

For all Stevie Johnson's (receiver for the Bills) faults, I loved when he made the following (tongue-in-cheek) tweet after dropping what should've been a big (game winning) catch last season:

@StevieJohnson13
I PRAISE YOU 24/7!!!!!! AND THIS HOW YOU DO ME!!!!! YOU EXPECT ME TO LEARN FROM THIS??? HOW???!!! ILL NEVER FORGET THIS!! EVER!!! THX THO...
posted by inigo2 at 9:17 AM on November 29, 2011 [6 favorites]

Like others have said there is a reason why the NFL is a pass first league. The rules are set up in order to encourage that rather than run first. When a QB scrambles they become just another targets which means big mean linemen and linebackers get to hammer you.

You can afford to go with offenses like the spread option in college because you generally only play 11-12 games and maybe a bowl game. You also get to schedule time off between competitive games. Plus even a vaunted conference like the SEC has plenty of bad teams that you can blow out easily and your non conference schedule is often filled with light weights.

No NFL team even the miserable Colts are really that outclassed in the parity of the modern NFL. Combined with longer seasons and injuries mount up.

Finally colleges aren't out millions if their scrambler gets injured. They might lose some games but it's not like they are sitting on massive contracts. When you have disposable talent you can afford to risk your QB. NFL teams can't do that as easily.

Denver might be able to sneak into the playoffs because the AFC west is so mediocre but I can't see them winning a wild card game when they are likely to be the 4th seed at best (which means Ravens or Steelers). Denver's defense is good but if they can't hold a team to 14-17 points or less I don't see Tebow winning a game for them.
posted by vuron at 9:18 AM on November 29, 2011

There's already been a test.

I meant test as to whether the option can succeed at this level. Neither the Detroit nor Miami game should factor into the conversation because that was before the Broncos switched over to the run-heavy gameplan with all the option wrinkles. 40 passing attempts? Part of that was the Broncos getting down early, but still... I don't think we'll see Tebow break 30 passing attempts the rest of the year.
posted by nathancaswell at 9:21 AM on November 29, 2011

Tebow is living proof that Houston sports teams (except soccer) are cursed.
posted by PapaLobo at 9:31 AM on November 29, 2011

The option (including the spread variant) is too risky to your "skill" players to see widespread adoption in the NFL. Like the Miami romance with the Wildcat it will be successful for a time but as NFL defenses begin to get more tape on it they'll begin to develop defensive packages to foil it.

Using run blitzes with disguised zone coverages should be adequate to slow Tebow down. The run blitz puts tacklers in the box for when he's looking to run and complex reads should limit his ability to throw the ball effectively.
posted by vuron at 9:31 AM on November 29, 2011

[Folks, if you need to take a back and forth argument about religion to MetaTalk, please do that, it's out of place here. Thanks.]
posted by jessamyn at 9:36 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

Not rooting for, but being forced to watch by virtue of geography, one of the better zone read offenses, I would argue that Tebow's success will ultimately be short lived. The zone read is a great finishing move but it relies on being set up by a consistent passing or running game--or a completely outmanned defense. If you fail to set that up a la the Nebraska Cornhuskers, a quality defense can key on the quarterback and the whole scheme falls apart.

Unlike college ball, it is a rare thing to come up against an outmanned defense. Tebow's isolated stats show him to be a non-contributor (at best) to Denver's current streak. Not to say Denver cannot continue to win with Tebow, but it will not continue to win in spite of Tebow. That is to say, if Tebow starts turning the ball over or starts playing with a nagging injury that affects his speed or strength even slightly, then even Denver's above average defense will not be able to salvage wins.

Then again, I greatly appreciate a quality, option-based offensive scheme. Hated the hell out of the Sooners, but absolutely loved watching their implementation of the wishbone. That shit was magical. If a pro team could make a go of a run/pass option, there are no shortage of quarterbacks coming out of the NCAA to choose from. They'd probably have to draft three of them per year to account for attrition though...
posted by Fezboy! at 9:39 AM on November 29, 2011

The Denver game is also quite possibly the only challenging game New England has left on the the schedule. Colts and Redskins should both be walks. On the other side of the Denver game, they've got Miami and Buffalo at home. Miami's certainly been looking better, and the Bills already nipped 'em once, but I just don't see the Pats losing to either of those teams at home. (Though depending on #1 seed status, they might not play the Buffalo game at full strength.)

So with five weeks left to play, the Pats have one game they need to seriously prepare for, and it's Denver. If Denver's able to play the option as a true option, and not a "make them think we *might* pass and just run it all the time" option, they could have a shot if Tebow can hit his targets. New England's secondary, as mentioned above, is pretty bad when everybody's healthy, and the worst in the league by a wide margin in its current state. But if they rely on the run as much as they have been these last six games, they're in trouble.

All in all, I agree that it will be a good test for Denver, but not one that I see them walking away from with a win.
posted by SpiffyRob at 9:56 AM on November 29, 2011

All I can hope for is that Tebow and the Rocky Mountain High Broncos win the rest of their games and make it to Super Bowl XLVI against an 18-0 Green Bay team. We need revenge for that loss back in '98 (in which Elway had a terrible game, and the whole offense was all about running with Terrell Davis).
posted by King Bee at 10:08 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

lukemeister: "It appears that he can throw long passes, but not short ones."

Long pass = long flight time = time for competent receiver to adjust to the ball, however badly it was thrown.

As for his winning ways, I have confidence in regression to the mean.
posted by dust of the stars at 10:17 AM on November 29, 2011

For all Stevie Johnson's (receiver for the Bills) faults, I loved when he made the following (tongue-in-cheek) tweet after dropping what should've been a big (game winning) catch last season:

@StevieJohnson13
I PRAISE YOU 24/7!!!!!! AND THIS HOW YOU DO ME!!!!! YOU EXPECT ME TO LEARN FROM THIS??? HOW???!!! ILL NEVER FORGET THIS!! EVER!!! THX THO...

Based on this past weekend, I was to understand that dropping game-winning catches is what Stevie Johnson gets paid for.
posted by Navelgazer at 10:35 AM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

you guys should be reading what smart football has been saying about the Tebow phenomenon. The first couple of games the broncos were only running a really naive speed option + power series running game for tebow. The Lions game for example.

As time has gone on they are starting to implement more and more of the full spread. Defences are also adding more and more of the schemes used to stop the spread. Last week the chargers were handing off linebackers on the zone read for instance - first time we've seen that. I'm not sure the Broncos have reacted by throwing the bubble screen or starting to run midline and speed option in reaction to the scraping backers bit. The biggest problems the Broncos have with Tebow is they need to institute the offense he is good at running. Evenutally he'll need to prove he's a good enough passer to keep the DB's honest - but it doesn't seem like we are there yet. More of the run game to be instituted. But the math is pretty compelling - you've 6 defensive players in the box, 6 o-lineman, a slot and tailback that have to be accounted for - so you've got 6 on 7, and then you've two backs - the QB and the tailback or slotback that can carry the ball. Tebow or a quality back on a DB is a good matchup for the offense. And then once the DBs start to sell out you just need to hit 50/50 balls.

Really what we are seeing with Tebow is the true spread coming into the NFL for the first time. Its sort of an obvious thing to have happen given how the league has become a standard 5 or 6 DB set to counteract the insanely permissive rule changes for passing offense. Of course the spread also requires a change in attitude towards QBs - you have to view them as more expendible, and less uniquely talented then the league does today.

Offensive football in the NFL is incredibly conservative. Ironically Tebow is sort of forcing Denver to try something new. It'll all come down to his durability and his ability to hit the occasional downfield pass. Its not like he didn't face lots of NFL quality athletes in college.
posted by JPD at 10:49 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

Based on this past weekend, I was to understand that dropping game-winning catches is what Stevie Johnson gets paid for.

Also unnecessary 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalties! He's multi-faceted.
posted by inigo2 at 10:55 AM on November 29, 2011

Its not like he didn't face lots of NFL quality athletes in college.

No, but while I don't want to state the obvious here, in college there is a massive talent disparity across the field which is far more exploitable than in the NFL, where everyone is NFL-level talented. If he's not reading defenses until after the snap, having to drop back in the pocket to figure out his option, and can't hit receivers (but doesn't give up the ball either, interestingly) it tells me that he's reading at a college level, where the weaknesses are far more apparent. Maybe this can be fixed, and maybe it can't, but right now his release timing is fucked up from the snap, not from when he drops back.
posted by Navelgazer at 11:06 AM on November 29, 2011 [5 favorites]

The quality of athletes in college can't even be compared to the athletes in the NFL. Tebow and Denver have been beating bad and flawed teams. I won't be surprised if the #TebowJustWins phenomenon continues, as bad and flawed teams are pretty much all that's left on Denver's schedule. The Bears are a decent team, but with Cutler they don't qualify as quality opposition anymore. The Patriots are the only high quality opponent the Broncos have left and their defense is questionable.

Remember the suddenly and amazingly good Tampa Bay Bucs last season? They had a soft schedule. Look at them this year!
posted by Modus Pwnens at 11:07 AM on November 29, 2011

previous post should read "with Cutler injured"
posted by Modus Pwnens at 11:09 AM on November 29, 2011

Navelgazer, you hit the nail on the head. people say how successful a player is in college without realizing you can get away with sloppy play a lot more easily in college. In the NFL, when you're playing the best in the world, that sloppy play gets hit more quickly. That's why talents like Barry Sanders, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Ray Lewis, and Peyton Manning have been so amazing: they're playing at the highest possible level and making so few mistakes to be exploited.
posted by grubi at 11:15 AM on November 29, 2011

in college there is a massive talent disparity across the field which is far more exploitable than in the NFL, where everyone is NFL-level talented. If he's not reading defenses until after the snap

There is some confusion going on in this thread about the pre vs post-snap read. Yes, as you say, there is a greater talent disparity across the field in college than in the NFL. This actually leads to MORE pre-snap reads in college. You look out and you see your talented guy vs their shitty guy, or your speedy RB split out vs their linebacker and you decide ahead of time to throw it to them.

The idea that Tebow is a shitty passer because he waits until AFTER the snap to make his reads is misguided. It is precisely the ability to read a coverage as the play is unfolding (after the snap) that separates a good NFL quarterback like Brady from a shitty NFL quarterback who decides before the snap who he's throwing to and forces the ball to them whether or not the coverage invites it.

This is actually one of the big criticisms that NFL scouts have over college QBs that come out of the spread offense (like Tebow)... they spread the defense out, identify which matchup they want to exploit and throw to that guy rather than surveying the field after the snap like in a pro system. NFL scouts favoring guys who run a pro-style offense is how you get guys like Jimmy Clausen drafted so high (ran Charlie Weiss's offense at Notre Dame). I remember one of the criticisms about Sam Bradford coming out who ran a spread at OU being that he made all his reads pre-snap.

When you are trying to simplify an offense for a crappy QB you work more pre-snap reads into it, not less. You cut the field in half and use route concepts so they don't have to work across the field, they just have an EITHER / OR read. As they get better you work more post-snap reads into the offense.
posted by nathancaswell at 11:19 AM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

(all this is not to say Tebow is good at reading coverages, as he is not)
posted by nathancaswell at 11:20 AM on November 29, 2011

The idea that Tebow is a shitty passer because he waits until AFTER the snap to make his reads is misguided. It is precisely the ability to read a coverage as the play is unfolding (after the snap) that separates a good NFL quarterback like Brady from a shitty NFL quarterback who decides before the snap who he's throwing to and forces the ball to them whether or not the coverage invites it.

Granted, but if he only reads defenses after the snap, he is, in effect, always scrambling. he has no ability to plan or call an audible. And any QB worth his salt in the NFL should be able to have a good idea what he's going to do with the defense before the snap.
posted by grubi at 11:24 AM on November 29, 2011

And when you have a particular receiver in mind before the snap and you stare him down during the play, you get disrupted. Repeatedly.
posted by grubi at 11:26 AM on November 29, 2011

That's true, where pre-snap reads come in in good quarterbacking is in audibles. That's what Peyton Manning is so good at, and that's what you see the Patriots doing more and more when they work in the new no-huddle with the incredibly versatile personel they have. Brady is adjusting all kind of shit pre-snap nowadays and it's awesome. I've also heard people who watch the Giants a lot say that Eli Manning is extremely good pre-snap in getting them into the right plays.

It's also worth noting that QBs are not really given the authority to audible in certain systems. I know Mike Martz's system is known for being extremely inflexible and that he doesn't like his QBs to audible.
posted by nathancaswell at 11:29 AM on November 29, 2011

I remember one of the criticisms about Sam Bradford coming out who ran a spread at OU being that he made all his reads pre-snap.

Actually now that I think about it I might be thinking of Colt Brennan and the June Jones system, the thing with Bradford had to do with the way the coaches relayed the plays in from the sidelines, and may be counter to my point. Anyway, I'm stepping out of this thread as I have accomplished absolutely nothing today.
posted by nathancaswell at 11:47 AM on November 29, 2011

An ass.
posted by Decani at 11:49 AM on November 29, 2011 [6 favorites]

I know Mike Martz's system is known for being extremely inflexible and that he doesn't like his QBs to audible.

Huh. I wonder if the offensive line could give Cutler better coverage if they were permitted to adapt more.
posted by Navelgazer at 12:29 PM on November 29, 2011

yeah ironically Tebow is used to making predetermined reads presnap in the passing game. That's how the spread works. He's got a straight progression, he might not even be told to read the coverage because you are betting on the threat of the run forcing an 4-4 matchup - where no matter what you'l have holes. Its about getting the numbers in your favor. In the running game you want one more player than the defense, in passing you just need even numbers and good routes to create an advantage.

Good NFL QB's reads are not predetermined by the play call though - that's why the Mannings take every goddamn second to get the play off - Eli more than that at least twice a game.

The reads he makes after the snap relate to how they run the option/zone-read/other contraint play - and no one does that in the running game in the nfl. The argument has always been that the guy with the skill set to make those reads is too valuable to risk running the ball. But they have nothing to do with the passing game.

There are really two points here
1) Does the spread maybe a place in the NFL - to which I say - maybe if QB's are durable enough or they can be made interchangeable the way running backs are. Schematically it does. Its not inherently flawed the same way the old school veer option out of the I is or something like that. I'm very interested to see it in the NFL. A lot of the constraint plays that the spread guys came up with to run as counters once the adjustments to the zone read were made (Bubble screens, TE shovel passes and screens ) are being run by some great offense - NE, GB for example.
2) Is Tim Tebow a good QB - probably not. He just can't complete enough passes in the 5-15 yd range to keep teams honest.
Cam Newton in the spread though? that would interest me.

Huh. I wonder if the offensive line could give Cutler better coverage if they were permitted to adapt more
they still make line calls, what Cutler probably can't do is change routes.

Martz probably pre-indicates something hot in the case of a blitz, but if Cutler doesn't identify the blitz and hit that guy it can get ugly in a hurry.
posted by JPD at 12:35 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Kurt Warner was brought up previously, he's the comeback to the statement that people think Tebow is not a good QB purely because of his religious values.

I, like many others here, enjoy watching his games as they feel totally unscripted. He's the exact opposite of everything today's QB is supposed to be, which is a refreshing change even though often he looks like he's trying to chuck a watermelon and not a football.
posted by cell divide at 12:43 PM on November 29, 2011

I think the ceiling for this year's Broncos is something like the 2006 Chicago Bears.
posted by drezdn at 12:44 PM on November 29, 2011

Another team that benched Kyle Orton! Foooooor....Rex Grossman.

Man, that was a massive step up, am I right?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:53 PM on November 29, 2011

How come know one mentions Philip Rivers when it comes to really christian quarterbacks?
posted by drezdn at 12:53 PM on November 29, 2011

Eh, I don't think very many people seriously contend Tebow's not a good quarterback purely because he's religious. I think a lot of people both dislike the public pageantry of his religious values AND think that he's not a good QB, completely independent of his self-proclaimed telepathic mind link with Jesus. Correlation, not causation.
posted by superfluousm at 12:54 PM on November 29, 2011

How come know one mentions Philip Rivers when it comes to really christian quarterbacks?


good point, and Rivers is nearly as loud about it as Tebow is. I'd also venture a guess that many QB's in the NFL (and players for that matter) would by any definition quality as "really Christian."
posted by JPD at 12:58 PM on November 29, 2011

I think the ceiling for this year's Broncos is something like the 2006 Chicago Bears

Well, since they don't have to play the Panthers maybe they can get away with having no one covering Steve Smith.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 1:00 PM on November 29, 2011

Eh, I don't think very many people seriously contend Tebow's not a good quarterback purely because he's religious. I think a lot of people both dislike the public pageantry of his religious values AND think that he's not a good QB, completely independent of his self-proclaimed telepathic mind link with Jesus. Correlation, not causation.

There are tons of other Football players that are very religious (e.g. Reggie White). There are also tons of other Football players that love to express their devotion to Christianity at every available moment. Yet Tebow is the first football player where people are actually throwing around words like Jesusboy or referencing religion when mocking him. Would people feel just as comfortable mocking a devout Muslim football player by referencing Allah or Mohammed?
posted by gyc at 1:23 PM on November 29, 2011

the statement that people think Tebow is not a good QB purely because of his religious values.

Who has ever said this?
posted by grubi at 1:24 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

Tim Tebow has already had two severe (at LEAST) concussions in college. That career-ending concussion is much closer than anyone thinks.
posted by basicchannel at 1:26 PM on November 29, 2011

Tim Tebow has already had two severe (at LEAST) concussions in college.

That could explain a lot.
posted by futz at 1:37 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Hell, Tebow may not even be the most religious guy on his own team... Brian Dawkins (one of my favorite players of all time) speaks in tongues to the ball before every game.
posted by nathancaswell at 1:40 PM on November 29, 2011

gyc - I'm not sure what in my statement you're responding to. I was pointing out as grubi did below me that I don't think anyone is contending that Tebow is a bad quarterback AS A RESULT OF his religious beliefs, but rather lots of people hold a particular view about his evangelizing and then also hold a second view about his skill as a football player.

Yep, lots of football players are serious about Christianity. I will say that there's no other football player who purchased ad time during the Superbowl to air an ad about his religious beliefs. As to your last question, first I think it's disingenuous to presuppose that Christianity and Islam are equivalent to one another in 2011 American society. But, playing along, if a devout Muslim player were getting lots of media attention for his religious grandstanding on the football field and using that platform to promote views/policies that were harmful to and intolerant of huge segments of the population, I would hope he would be criticized for it, sure.
posted by superfluousm at 1:41 PM on November 29, 2011

I think the difference there, Nathan, is that Tebow is religious whereas Dawk is gleefully insane.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:43 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

Tim Tebow and others like him are Exhibit A for why assigning quarterbacks, as opposed to teams, a win-loss record is insane. If Tebow is 5-1, so is rookie d-lineman Mitch Unrein.

Same goes for pitchers.
posted by Mental Wimp at 1:44 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

So if your race was a thing you could choose, grubi would be totally OK with Klan?

What a surreal question. May as well ask "If you were the opposite sex, who would you be?" Race wouldn't be race, as we know it. And nobody's lynching Tim Tebow or burning crosses on his lawn, or even denying him a job, so get a grip.

Losing to the nothing-special Vikings would be the beginning of the end, and I'm betting it will be.

Oh, the Vikings are worse than nothing-special. They are heart-rendingly awful. My heart. Being rended. *sniff*
posted by Mental Wimp at 1:50 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Absolutely. Hell, at least there's no stat in football specifically designed to blame a quarterback for his backup's performance.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:52 PM on November 29, 2011

Dawkins is definitely a devoted Christian, and actually really mild mannered off the field. At gametime he just goes nuts and turns into Wolverine.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 1:53 PM on November 29, 2011

I want good things for the Vikings because I want good things for Toby Gerhart, but alas on both counts.
posted by superfluousm at 1:53 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

Jake Plummer (39-15 as Denver's starting QB) on Tebow:

...regardless of whether I wish he'd just shut up after a game and go hug his teammates, I think he's a winner and I respect that about him. I think that when he accepts the fact that we know that he loves Jesus Christ, then I think I'll like him a little better. I don't hate him because of that, I just would rather not have to hear that every single time he takes a good snap or makes a good handoff.

You tell 'em, Snake.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 1:54 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

My mom, the rabid Broncos fan previously mentioned, was once at a wedding Jake Plummer also attended. It took her but one or two beers before she was following him around like a lost puppy. Apparently he found her amusing and was incredibly gracious in chatting with her.

My point is that I'll like Tebow when he is nice to my drunk old mother, and not before. A person has got to have their standards.
posted by superfluousm at 2:01 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

I miss Plummer and I await his glorious return as the commissioner of professional handball.
posted by aaronetc at 2:17 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

Jake Plummer (39-15 as Denver's starting QB)

I never thought he was all that good, but Jake the Snake's benching remains one of the most bizarre moments in professional sports. Watching a coach throw away a winning QB and tank a potentially great season because of either arrogance or dementia was surreal.

Which is why, of course, Dan Snyder thought he'd be a good hire for head coach.

Kill me.
posted by Dr.Enormous at 2:20 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

Haha, Shanahan. SPEAKING OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY FORSAKEN BY GOD
posted by superfluousm at 2:21 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Jake Plummer comes across as a pretty cool guy (probably the coolest guy in the Broncos organization) in Stefan Fatsis' A Few Seconds of Panic. Which, by the way, is a pretty good book.
posted by COBRA! at 2:23 PM on November 29, 2011

The Redskins are forever doomed as long as Snyder runs that team. I wasn't sure that there could be a bigger control freak douchebag as NFL owner than Jerry Jones and along came Snyder.

Between him and Shanahan I think that team will be were the careers of QBs go to die. I halfway expect a washed up Peyton to end up there in a year or two.
posted by vuron at 2:28 PM on November 29, 2011

"A Few Seconds of Panic" sounds like the name of a documentary about Jake Plummer's left handed throw.

That said, I've got nothing but love for Plummer. That mustache was awesome and the only sports bet I ever made was the Plummer-led Broncos over the Patriots in the playoffs.
posted by Modus Pwnens at 2:29 PM on November 29, 2011

An ass.
posted by Decani at 2:33 PM on November 29, 2011

Some stats that back-up Tebow's value.
posted by oddman at 3:55 PM on November 29, 2011

Jake the Snake

In that #firstworldproblem type of way, I don't know if this, or calling LaDainian Tomlinson "LT" (versus "LDT") irks me more. There already is an LT. And there already is a Jack the Snake.
posted by inigo2 at 3:56 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Don't get me wrong, I love me some Jake Plummer, but there is also already a Kenny "The Snake" Stabler.
posted by nathancaswell at 4:00 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

Some stats that back-up Tebow's value.

That article could be in the dictionary under "small sample."

For example:

Career interception percentage:
Tim Tebow -- 1.78 percent
Aaron Rodgers -- 1.83 percent
Tom Brady -- 2.2 percent
Drew Brees -- 2.71 percent
Peyton Manning -- 2.75 percent
John Elway -- 3.1 percent


Aaron Rodgers has thrown 1,973 vs. 36 int
Brady 5,131 vs. 113 int
Brees 5,282 vs 143 int
Manning 7,210 vs 198
Elway 7,250 vs 226

Tebow 225 vs. 4

He hasn't even played a full season, and considering he's been throwing it less, he's less likely to have interceptions than any of the elite quarterbacks.
posted by drezdn at 4:21 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

"That article could be in the dictionary under "small sample."
. . . He hasn't even played a full season, "

And yet all of these detractors feel free to condemn him as a surefire, utter failure. Interesting, that.

So, the stats that support him are contemptible because they are based on a small sample size, but the stats, "eyeball tests" and "common sense" that suggest his imminent collapse are immune to that failing? The guy may not pan out, plenty of other much more typical QB's haven't, but a bit of even handedness from the peanut gallery would be nice.
posted by oddman at 5:25 PM on November 29, 2011

The things that professionals have judged Tebow that point to him being a subpar quarterback, are the same standards they used to evaluate any other potential draft pick or rookie quarterback.

There's an argument to be made that many NFL teams aren't great at evaluating potential quarterbacks (just look at Tom Brady being drafted in the 6th round), but I don't see any evidence that the NFL was harder on him than others. If they are, it's probably because recent history has been tough on running quarterbacks.
posted by drezdn at 6:24 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

"The things that professionals have judged Tebow that point to him being a subpar quarterback, are the same standards they used to evaluate any other potential draft pick or rookie quarterback.


Aren't those judgments still subject to small sample size bias? If so, then why put confidence in them, but not the statistics cited by the article I linked to (which was not written by some slouch).

I didn't suggest that they were using different standards. I suggested that you can't claim that supportive facts are disqualified by small sample size while condemning facts aren't.
posted by oddman at 7:08 PM on November 29, 2011

The sample size for his inability to succeed in the NFL includes his college career.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 7:22 PM on November 29, 2011

The same career in which he was better than all of the guys in the pros who played concurrently with him?
posted by oddman at 7:26 PM on November 29, 2011

Not in the skillset that predicts pro success.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 7:31 PM on November 29, 2011

"If a running back can handle 20 carries a game I don't see why he can't."

Running backs are built and trained to run straight ahead into the defense. Not that that's in any way an easy job, but at least you know where the hits are coming from (I mean, maybe on some crazy reverse play you could get hit unexpectedly, but that'd be unusual).

Even though he is the chosen son of Jeebus, Tebow is still lining up at quarterback. He _has_ to drop back at least a few times per game, and this is where blindside issues come in.

Actually, the running backs get it worse. It doesn't matter if you see it coming.

Shortest Careers
The shortest careers among NFL players tends to be those who hit and get hit the most during games and practice. Running backs have the shortest average careers of just 2.57 years. Wide receivers have average careers of 2.81 years. The average career for cornerbacks is 2.94 years.

Longest Careers
The longest careers among NFL players tends to be those who are hit the least. Kickers and punters have the longest careers, averaging 4.87 years. Quarterbacks are next with an average career of 4.44 years.


The best way to last as a QB is to get rid of the ball quickly and reduce the hits you take.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 7:38 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

The same career in which he was better than all of the guys in the pros who played concurrently with him?

Ha. Uh. That was an entirely different sport.

Did Tebow face any linebackers with the same skill set, years of experience, tenacity, or downright nastiness of a guy like James Harrison? Absolutely not. Even when he finally does match up with guys like Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing (his defensive "contemporaries" in college), they'll have had years of experience under their belts, and those guys are demonstrably getting better, faster, stronger, and smarter. Tebow is not. Unless he starts showing some progress (this is his second year, not his first) he's going to have a lot of ground to make up.
posted by King Bee at 7:42 PM on November 29, 2011

Really what we are seeing with Tebow is the true spread coming into the NFL for the first time.

What about Michael Vick?
posted by auto-correct at 7:47 PM on November 29, 2011

He runs a lot, but he has always run a pro style offense as far as I'm aware. I didn't follow Atlanta that closely but in Philly it's the WCO.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 7:52 PM on November 29, 2011

I suggested that you can't claim that supportive facts are disqualified by small sample size while condemning facts aren't.

From the article:

In other words, Tebow is no statistical circus freak winning in spite of himself. Tebow's Broncos are winning because he consistently outperforms the opposing quarterback when you take into account all aspects of production: passing, running, sacks, total touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles. In fact, he consistently outperforms them by a wide margin.

These are facts in the same way John Madden saying that when one team scores more points than the other, they put themselves in a good postion to win is a fact. Opposing quarterbacks are never on the field at the same time. They aren't in some all important one on one battle where the statistical outcome determines victory. They play in different schemes against different defenses.

The guy is also giving Tebow a crutch by comparing quarterback ratings instead of raw statistics as Tebow typically passes less than a dozen times per game, and many of those passes are dump offs or check downs. With those small numbers, any touchdown pass will skew the numbers greatly higher, and any interception greatly lower.

The reality is that Tim Tebow is winning because the Denver Broncos defense is giving up an average of 15 points in their last five victories. You can extrapolate this to the quarterback ratings comparison in that Denver's defense has been anything but kind to opposing quarterbacks (Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, Brian Dawkins, Champ Bailey).

Aren't those judgments still subject to small sample size bias?

No. The NFL is not a kind place for quarterbacks who can't snap the ball out their hand in milliseconds, or to those who find themselves running either on dedicated plays, or too often on broken plays. Tim Tebow does not have the ability throw quickly and accurately. This has been documented for the past 6 years. He has been a cog on winning teams with good defenses.

At any given time there are 8 +/- 4 teams in the NFL looking for a quarterback. Quite a few guys get a shot in any given year. If I were a Denver Broncos fan, I would be praying that they don't even entertain the idea of locking Tim Tebow up long term for even middling money, continue to invest in that defense, and bide their time with a team that can give even a crappy quarterback a shot, and will become a force once they install a quarterback that can, well, quarterback.
posted by clearly at 7:52 PM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

So, again.

First, they said he'd be lucky to be drafted in the second round (taken mid first).
Second, they said, he'd never win. (His 5-1 this year and 6-3 over all as a starter).
Third, they said wait till next year.

Now, you're cherry picking stats and claiming that the *true predictive stats* are (coincidentally, I'm sure) the one's he's bad at.

A. Look up "No true Scotsman"
B. The past does not necessitate the future.

No one passed like Marino in Miami or the West Coast in SF. Until they did, and now pass heavy playbooks are the norm. No one was successful with just 4 down linemen, or 3, until someone was and now the 5 man defensive front has gone the way of the dodo. Sports evolve. Will Tebow succeed where others haven't. I don't know.

Neither do you.

(And finally, if you think Tebow was merely a cog at UF you clearly didn't see them run the option without him. Seriously, a cog? That's a knee slapper, right there.)

I'm done. True believers can't be expected to examine their own prejudices objectively.
posted by oddman at 8:05 PM on November 29, 2011

You kind of jumped from sample size to "samples don't matter", didn't you?

I like the guy, I like Denver because I'm cheering on Dawkins, but the bottom line is this isn't about scheme. The NFL has fast linebackers who shut down this sort of one dimensional running game.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 8:08 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

*isn't about individual players.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 8:09 PM on November 29, 2011

Throw all stats based on his small NFL sample size out the window, including the dumbest stat in the NFL: QB Wins. (I'm a Jets fan, and hearing about how Sanchez is "a winner" gives me almost as big a headache as hearing Tebow is a winner.)

Tebow has major issues with his throwing mechanics and footwork. He is not an accurate passer (There's an old maxim in the NFL: "You can't teach accuracy.") His only redeeming factor is his athleticism, and the great majority of players that have come into the NFL looking as disastrous as Tebow fail as QBs. I can't even think of a QB that has succeeded that came into the league as raw as Tebow, although I assume if you dig deep enough one can be found. I don't know if "raw" is even the right term for Tebow, because I don't think he can be fixed.

The Broncos haven't beaten any teams worth a damn this year. The Broncos defense has also played very well.

Throwing all this credit to Tebow is a disservice to guys like Von Miller who are tearing it up and have been awesome this year.
posted by Modus Pwnens at 8:17 PM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

The Broncos are eeking out small-margin wins in low scoring games. There's only about a million pages of sports statistical analysis showing these results are almost always due to luck (the winning part; the part where it's close is because of good defense), and are nearly certain to reverse course next season, if they don't do so within the current season.

It's one of the single more reliable sports predictors. Find a team with a winning record in close games (the old "knows how to win" nonsense), and you can be pretty sure they're going to start losing before long.

This streak is hilariously fun to watch, but it won't last. When it comes crashing down--and this is as close to 100% certain as you can get in sports--there will be a whole new flood of articles and stats about "what happened to Tebow?"
posted by Dr.Enormous at 9:25 PM on November 29, 2011

penduluum: "I'm an atheist socialist liberal and I went to the University of Florida. I hope Tim Tebow wins 25 Super Bowl rings."

That's funny, because I'm a Methodist social liberal and I went to the University of Oklahoma. I hope Sam Bradford wins 25 Super Bowl rings.
posted by Dr. Zira at 9:44 PM on November 29, 2011 [1 favorite]

I'm a Catholic Penn State fan.


I hope they stop molesting people.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 9:51 PM on November 29, 2011 [3 favorites]

(And finally, if you think Tebow was merely a cog at UF you clearly didn't see them run the option without him. Seriously, a cog? That's a knee slapper, right there.)

He was a cog at Florida. Nine players were drafted from his senior class at Florida, with two going before him. Four of his five offensive lineman in college are now playing in the NFL, with the Pouncey twins being notably successful. Teams win football games, players do not (with, perhaps, an exception for Peyton Manning). The Denver Broncos are backpacking Tim Tebow, not the other way around.

Now, you're cherry picking stats and claiming that the *true predictive stats* are (coincidentally, I'm sure) the one's he's bad at.

I'm not cherry picking anything. I'm saying that the Denver Broncos will continue to win football games if their defense can hold their opponents to 15 points a game, no matter who is under center.
posted by clearly at 10:14 PM on November 29, 2011 [2 favorites]

this is so creepy
posted by inigo2 at 6:34 AM on November 30, 2011

Tim Tebow ... Pro-Bowler?
posted by furiousxgeorge at 6:21 PM on November 30, 2011

Tim Tebow ... Pro-Bowler?

Interesting! His long delivery wouldn't be a detriment on the lanes, the pins don't care which direction the ball is rotating and you don't need to move your best gutter to the right side like you do with an offensive tackle. Also the sport is pretty popular in America's heartland so he probably has some cultural appeal. I bet he could land a sweet endorsement deal with Elite, Brunswick or BSI. Tim Tebow, Pro-Bowler, you say? I can get behind this idea.
posted by nathancaswell at 7:31 PM on November 30, 2011 [5 favorites]

the thing with Bradford had to do with the way the coaches relayed the plays in from the sidelines

This has been a big problem for college spread teams of late:

Teams line up, QB suddenly checks, whole team stands up to turn to the sideline and look at a 2x2 card with non sequitur images and two coaching assistant wildly giving hand signals. Then the QB finally gets the play, everyone lines back up and they finally snap (sometimes with almost no time left).

What's happening is the OC is looking at the defense and calling the play based on matchups, but the complexity of the offense is so great they have to go through a bunch of rigmarole to get the right play in to support just that weakness in the defense. So it takes forever. I keep expecting some DC to take advantage of this and do an old fashioned Miami timed blitz -- where a LB or corner will starting running towards the line of scrimmage and time it with the expiring play clock to not be offsides when the ball is snapped, but yet be totally unblocked because the offense didn't account for him.

But the upshot of a system like that is the quarterback isn't reading the defense, the OC up in the booth is. So the QB won't learn to read a defense like they're expected to in the NFL, and then they spend their first couple of years learning not just how to deal with NFL speed but also how to read a defense. You're seeing that with Sam Bradford (one reason he's sacked so much, that and St. Louis has a terrible O-line). There were a lot of expectations that Cam Newton would be in the same trouble (Gus Malzahn, the OC for Auburn and a certified offensive genius, originated a lot of this stuff with the cards and the hand signals). That he hasn't been is a testament to Newton's natural game-running skills.
posted by dw at 7:44 PM on November 30, 2011 [2 favorites]

Oh, and I forgot to mention:

Oregon's base offense is something like 20 plays. You only see the cards and the wild hand signals come out for them when the opposing defense is solving their base offense. This also means they can run their no huddle offense incredibly well -- they never have to check down.
posted by dw at 7:47 PM on November 30, 2011 [1 favorite]

I've been pretty happy with Christian Ponder so far. He's made some dumb mistakes, but he's also made some big-time throws, has good mobility, and sparks the Vikings offense.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:34 AM on December 1, 2011 [1 favorite]

If Tim Tebow was black, they would have converted him to fullback or tight end before he got out of college.
posted by grubi at 7:51 AM on December 1, 2011

you realize they wanted to convert him to linebacker before he got to college. That's a big reason why he chose Florida over Alabama. 'Bama wouldn't promise him QB.
posted by JPD at 7:59 AM on December 1, 2011

That's why he changed high school teams, too.
posted by grubi at 8:10 AM on December 1, 2011

If he can catch, he could have been a great "modern" tight end in the Jimmy Graham/Jermichael Finley mold, with greater use on run plays.
posted by drezdn at 9:53 AM on December 1, 2011

drezdn: That's exactly what I think. The guy is a crazy athlete. He'd be perfect in that role.
posted by King Bee at 10:08 AM on December 1, 2011

Every Tebow on Sportscenter today.
posted by sweetkid at 6:44 PM on December 7, 2011

The Bears got Tebow'd yesterday. It was bad. :(
posted by readery at 8:22 AM on December 12, 2011

In fairness, the Bears got Pratered and Barbered more than they got Tebow'd. Not that Tim-Tim didn't do an adequate job twice moving them to within (long) field goal range, but the kicker making 58 and 51 yarders and the guy who inadvertently stopped the clock/fumbled in OT had a lot more to do with the outcome of the game.

If Prater had missed the 58-yarder at the end of regulation, the story would have been about Tebow's inability to drive the Broncos down the field to reasonable FG range. Now if you want to argue that Tebow's holy power helped guide those kicks, THEN you could reasonably say the Bears got Tebow'd.
posted by SpiffyRob at 11:12 AM on December 12, 2011 [3 favorites]

I only watched the last 5 minutes, doing the i'm-at-a-party-but-socially-awkward-hey-people-are-watching-football-in-this-other-room-i-can-do-that. At 1:56 left to go, it looked like a Bears victory.

And then the 58 yard FG. Due to having a busy life, I had not actually seen Tebow in action. He is a big fella.
posted by readery at 12:21 PM on December 12, 2011

Most great comebacks are self-inflicted to a degree. Ask the Giants about punting to DeSean Jackson. Anyway, I've never cheered for an NFL team aside from the Eagles like I am these Broncos. It feels like adultery.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 12:34 PM on December 12, 2011

i'm-at-a-party-but-socially-awkward-hey-people-are-watching-football-in-this-other-room-i-can-do-that

I wish football was year round. :|
posted by furiousxgeorge at 12:34 PM on December 12, 2011 [1 favorite]

This kid is a GAMER, he's a BALLER...
posted by King Bee at 1:26 PM on December 16, 2011

Jesus visits the Broncos locker room.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 1:47 AM on December 18, 2011 [3 favorites]

Let's see if Tebus can miracle his way out of this one.

/pats fan
posted by nathancaswell at 4:14 PM on December 18, 2011 [2 favorites]

Hey look at that, if you score on Denver and keep bringing pressure (no Prevent) they simply cannot throw the ball well enough to keep up. Everything they do is predicated on the running game and occasional play action, remove that from the equation and they can't hang.
posted by nathancaswell at 4:20 PM on December 18, 2011 [2 favorites]

Tebow time!!! Sportswriters, meet sample size, sample size, meet sports writers.
posted by nathancaswell at 1:35 PM on December 24, 2011 [2 favorites]