Dirt

January 18, 2012 3:35 PM

John McCain's entire 2008 opposition research file on Mitt Romney [PDF], scribd mirror
posted by msalt (145 comments total)

Won't matter. McCain is damaged goods to conservatives. He had the effrontery to lose to a Kenyan Socialist.
posted by darkstar at 3:37 PM on January 18

Warning: it's pretty boring (no dead hookers or junkie relatives), and lots of it is targeted to make Romney look pretty appealing to center-left independent.
posted by muddgirl at 3:38 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

What do you think they wrote that in? Seems like a good case for some sort of multi-user Bartleby.
posted by michaelh at 3:38 PM on January 18

Warning #2: it's a 200 page, 1.2mb PDF
posted by filthy light thief at 3:39 PM on January 18

I've never seen a formal "oppo" file before, and I love poltiical scandals, so this was pretty fascinating. That said, it's as interesting for how thin it is -- no sign of the undocumented immigrant yard workers found on Romney's lawn, or the trip to Canada with the dog in a cage on the roof, for example. Those scandals weren't exactly huge secrets.

I would love to find the video they reference where Romney said "the Harlem Globetrotters have trouble scoring touchdowns." (The search defeated me.) Note: Bain & Co. owned the Globetrotters at one point.
posted by msalt at 3:39 PM on January 18 [4 favorites]

It's not about McCain. Wonder why it took this long for it to come out, and, more importantly, who put it out there?
posted by crunchland at 3:40 PM on January 18

Alternate source: read on Scribd.
posted by filthy light thief at 3:41 PM on January 18

Wow... Republicans really hate Romney, don't they? Even Palin is shilling for Gingrich.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 3:42 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

Whaaa? His vacation home is only worth $5.2 million? Pffft! I wouldn't vote for a peasant like that! Practically a goddam commie!
posted by flapjax at midnite at 3:44 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

muddgirl: are you suggesting this was faked by, or at least leaked by, the Romney campaign? Buzzfeed called it an exclusive and then said they found it online (huh?). The Dailey caller says it has been on DocStoc since November 11th, but was only accessed 100 times, which is not inconsistent with Buzzfeed's story.
posted by msalt at 3:45 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

I kinda like this straw man Romney that the other Republicans are attacking.
posted by mullacc at 3:46 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

I don't see how that is controversial, msalt. The Harlem Globetrotters do have trouble scoring touchdowns, after all.
posted by ryanrs at 3:47 PM on January 18 [16 favorites]

Wow... Republicans really hate Romney, don't they? Even Palin is shilling for Gingrich.

"The candidates lined up at the urinals, Giuliani next to McCain next to Huckabee, the rest all in a row. The debate was soon to start, so they were taking care of business - and laughing merrily at the one guy who wasn't there. Poking fun at him, mocking him, agreeing about how much they disliked him. Then Willard Mitt Romney walked into the bathroom and overheard them, bringing on a crashing silence" - Game Change p. 293
posted by gyc at 3:48 PM on January 18 [6 favorites]

The Globetrotters have no problem scoring touchdowns.
posted by Flunkie at 3:48 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

msalt: I would love to find the video they reference

I'd love to see the ~100 tape collection in the Boston Video Archive.
posted by filthy light thief at 3:49 PM on January 18

This straw man Romney is a little Michael-Douglas-in-Wall-Street for my tastes.

I'd prefer a straw man Romney that's more into abortion and gay marriage.
posted by box at 3:49 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

Romney Wants To Double Size Of Guantanamo Bay Facility, Prompting Observers To Label The Idea “Weird”

This is sound political analysis.
posted by Winnemac at 3:50 PM on January 18 [5 favorites]

The Globetrotters have no problem scoring touchdowns.

The existential question arises: Assuming equal pay, would you rather be a NBA player who only sits on the bench and never plays a single second for your entire career, or be a starter for the Washington Generals?
posted by Mister Fabulous at 3:51 PM on January 18 [9 favorites]

Filthy Light Thief: Thanks, I emailed mods to change the FPP to warn of the large PDF and offer the Scribd alternative.
posted by msalt at 3:51 PM on January 18

I never thought I'd say anything nice about Reagan, but when I see things like this leak, I miss his so-called 11 Commandment.

What kind of manufactured consent are they going to be able to pull together after such an ugly primary already?
posted by Gucky at 3:52 PM on January 18

Heh:

"I’m wary of anyone who parlays background, money, and hair to political success."

I wonder if that was playfully self-deprecating or just totally tone deaf.
posted by Flunkie at 3:52 PM on January 18

Romney Forced To Admit He Hunted Only Two Times In His Life And Does Not Own A Gun

Scandalous!
posted by exogenous at 3:53 PM on January 18 [10 favorites]

Jesus, what kind of self-respecting Republican doesn't go on hunts at least quarterly? At least go on a quick walk-through of a stocked game preserve or maybe just shoot something out of the window while your driver stops. How else are you going to stay sharp if you're not shooting things you have no intention of eating?
posted by Burhanistan at 3:57 PM on January 18 [6 favorites]

The existential question arises: Assuming equal pay, would you rather be a NBA player who only sits on the bench and never plays a single second for your entire career, or be a starter for the Washington Generals?

Clarification: NBA minimum salary, or Washington Generals salary?
posted by cortex at 3:58 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

Romney Forced To Admit He Hunted Only Two Times In His Life And Does Not Own A Gun

"I'm not a BIG-GAME hunter. I've made that very clear," he said. "I've always been a rodent and rabbit hunter. Small varmints, if you will. I began when I was 15 or so and I have hunted those kinds of varmints since then. More than two times." -- Romney, 2007

(Even that was a lie, because he had hunted exactly twice at that point. Once at 15, once at 53.)
posted by msalt at 3:59 PM on January 18

Awkward Moments
Romney at youth basketball game and gym class with awkward sit-ups/warm-up routine. (Tape 67)
Romney begins to discuss “acute hair situation.” (Meant Acute Care Situation) (Tape 55)
Romney says the Harlem Globetrotters have trouble making touchdowns. (Tape 62)

Even for the candidates I don't like, I hate "Dukakis in the tank" moments. But I'm pretty sure I'd appreciate all of these videos.

Thanks for this -- even though it is pretty dry, I find it fascinating to see what one of these looks like. It also makes me think about how good I would be at doing opposition research, how much part of me would actually enjoy doing it, and how I'm still so very, very glad that I don't. My soul isn't much, but I value it too much. Even reading this rather tame document made me feel icky.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 3:59 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

Really, its the whole pattern:
In January 2006, Romney said he owned a gun – then two days later admitted he did not and the gun
belonged to his son.
Romney bragged about being member of the NRA but later revealed he didn’t join until August 2006, just
before launching his presidential campaign.
Romney recently said he’s “been a hunter pretty much all my life” but later admitted he hunted only twice in
his life, later clarifying remarks by claiming he has hunted “small varmints … more than two times.”
In 2006 press conference, Romney claimed he had been hunting “many times” after returning from quail hunt
in Georgia.
posted by 445supermag at 3:59 PM on January 18

Bain owned the Globetrotters? I guess that's why they folded after six of them were laid off and they started losing to the Generals.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:59 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

Romney hunts the most dangerous game. Board games.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 4:00 PM on January 18 [4 favorites]

I don't know much about characters from the Book of Mormon, but "Hagoth: Builder of Ships" is a pretty sweet name for a board game!
posted by infinitywaltz at 4:02 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

are you suggesting this was faked by, or at least leaked by, the Romney campaign?

No? Targeted is probably a poor choice of words on my part. This was developed for a Republican primary campaign so it just happens to have all the juicy liberal stuff that Romney would want to hide at that point. Obama's general election opposition research will look the same in many respects (flip-flopping), but a lot of that stuff will only make him more palatably to general election independents.
posted by muddgirl at 4:02 PM on January 18

445SuperMag: Worse yet, Romney said he was a "lifetime member" of the NRA, and that turned out the be the category for people who give a lot of extra money and don't have to renew each year. He had become a lifetime member less than a year earlier, in his 50s.
posted by msalt at 4:04 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

Romney: "I thought becoming rich and famous would make me happy. Boy was I right.” (Tape 78)

Well, there's his definition of happiness right there. Not the easiest quote to publicly cough up, generally.
posted by Brian B. at 4:11 PM on January 18 [5 favorites]

Kind of like Hillary: "I've always been a Yankees fan."
posted by 445supermag at 4:14 PM on January 18

World of Warcraft mob, Mormon scriptural figure, or Norwegian Black Metal band?

1) Hagoth
2) Akkrilus
3) Cezoram
4) Birzum
5) Gehenna
6) Malathrom
7) Zeezrom
8) Dimmu Borgir
9) Heth
10)Retherokk
posted by msalt at 4:15 PM on January 18 [56 favorites]

I don't know much about characters from the Book of Mormon, but "Hagoth: Builder of Ships" is a pretty sweet name for a board game!

It's arguably the most interesting section of the Book of Mormon. Hagoth was like a "proto" Columbus to the Book of Mormon people. He was all like "aww yeah forget about all this fertile central american soil imma build some ships and find better land"

The only thing that might be more fun would be a video game titled "Teancum: Assassin of Kings"

/nerdmormon humor
posted by Doleful Creature at 4:15 PM on January 18 [4 favorites]

445supermag: "Kind of like Hillary: "I've always been a Yankees fan.""

Yes. Except we don't have a constitutional amendment people get apeshit illogical about regarding baseball.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 4:16 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

Clarification: NBA minimum salary, or Washington Generals salary?

I think the general assumption on the question was that the pay was the same for either position, so we'll go with NBA minimum for either being a bench warmer or Generals starter.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 4:17 PM on January 18

After reading page 11, I'm super exited about the upcoming "Romney: Legend of Investing."
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:19 PM on January 18

I dunno, if I wanted to play a board game based around Mormon theology, I'd probably just play this.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:20 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

After reading page 11, I'm super exited about the upcoming "Romney: Legend of Investing."

I'll bet the sequel is better: "Romney: Ocarina of Time".
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 4:21 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

The only thing that might be more fun would be a video game titled "Teancum: Assassin of Kings."

I WOULD PLAY THAT GAME. Seriously, somebody needs to make a Mount & Blade mod.
posted by infinitywaltz at 4:21 PM on January 18

msalt: "5) Gehenna"

Trick question. This is all three.
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:21 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

Really, its the whole pattern

I think you're right. I think Romney is misrepresenting himself to win the presidency.

We wouldn't want a person like that in the Oval Office.
posted by Trurl at 4:23 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

World of Warcraft mob, Mormon scriptural figure, or Norwegian Black Metal band? Answers:
WOW: 2, 6, 10
LDS: 1, 3, 7, 9
NBM: 4,5, 8
posted by msalt at 4:23 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

Like gun stuff actually matters to the NRA?

Glen Beck wrote a novel where he pretty much showed his hand on page two with his assassin either wielding a silenced revolver a Desert Eagle for a mission of covert close-in whacking. Yet I knew gun nuts (or at least guys who talked a better game than this) who were still watching his show every night and periodically making me try to chew my own arm off while they warned me about some shadowy Mexican-Palistinian alliance that spelled doom for these United States. DOOM!

Mitt Romney could claim to own a fully automatic M-1 Garand with a 50 round clip and I doubt it would change much of anything.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 4:24 PM on January 18

Whaaa? His vacation home is only worth $5.2 million? Pffft! I wouldn't vote for a peasant like that! Practically a goddam commie!

Since that report was produced for McCain, Romney has purchased a $12 million fixer-upper in La Jolla. The 3000 sq ft house will be replaced by an 11,000 sq ft monstrosity.
posted by birdherder at 4:24 PM on January 18

I think the general assumption on the question was that the pay was the same for either position, so we'll go with NBA minimum for either being a bench warmer or Generals starter.

NBA, then. I'd write novels from the bench.

If it was the Generals' salary, I'd play for the Generals, because at least I'd be getting some exercise out of the deal.
posted by cortex at 4:25 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

World of Warcraft mob, Mormon scriptural figure, or Norwegian Black Metal band?

Temple Garments Shoggoth: Mormon scriptural black metal band.
posted by thewalrus at 4:27 PM on January 18

Sort of related:

Drudge is breaking a story on Newt Gingrich. His ex-wife Marianne Gingrich sat down for an interview. Apparently she had some things on her mind. The interview is currently scheduled to air on Monday but there's already plenty of speculation about its contents.

What's the first Google result for "Marianne Gingrich"?

American needs Mitt Romney!
posted by BigSky at 4:29 PM on January 18

Swinging the banhammer doesn't burn the calories it used to, eh?
posted by waraw at 4:29 PM on January 18

If it was the Generals' salary, I'd play for the Generals, because at least I'd be getting some exercise out of the deal.

Did you see Flunkie's video clip? The Generals don't seem to be breaking much of a sweat.

I love though how the Globetrotters goof around for 4 minutes, mostly standing still, but any time one of them runs sideways, the General guarding him dutifully marks his man. Just to make sure the Trotters don't suddenly start a fast break and cherry pick an easy basket.
posted by msalt at 4:31 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

Glen Beck wrote a novel where he pretty much showed his hand on page two with his assassin either wielding a silenced revolver a Desert Eagle for a mission of covert close-in whacking

For those playing at home, 50 cal desert eagles are big and loud as f#ck, and silencers don't work on revolvers due to the cylinder gap.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:34 PM on January 18 [6 favorites]

World of Warcraft mob, Mormon scriptural figure, or Norwegian Black Metal band? Answers:
WOW: 2, 6, 10
LDS: 1, 3, 7, 9
NBM: 4,5, 8

I'd call shenanigans but considering Wikipedia today....
posted by m@f at 4:35 PM on January 18

cortex said: If it was the Generals' salary, I'd play for the Generals, because at least I'd be getting some exercise out of the deal.

That's assuming the Generals wouldn't bench you. :-D

BigSky said: What's the first Google result for "Marianne Gingrich"? American needs Mitt Romney!

Funny, public radio on the way home today had a story about a mom who, along with her kids, was campaigning for Newt. When the interviewer raised the issue of Newt's serial infidelity, the mom said something like "as long as whoever he has wronged is OK with him now..."
posted by exogenous at 4:36 PM on January 18

I think the general assumption on the question was that the pay was the same for either position, so we'll go with NBA minimum for either being a bench warmer or Generals starter.

You're more likely to sustain an injury as an NBA player. Even if your playing time is minimal, you'll still practice as much as the starters. On that basis, your career as a General would have a longer expected life.
posted by mullacc at 4:37 PM on January 18

I was working with the hypotheticals that (a) I had to choose one or the other and (b) I would be magically employable as-hired (which is to say able to sit on a bench in the NBA or able to lose at basketball against the Globetrotters).

If I am normal me and have a choice, I'd just stick with my current job. Pay is fine and I wouldn't be on the road all the goddam time and smelling of gym socks.
posted by cortex at 4:39 PM on January 18

Am I the only one amazed that Newt hasn't started throwing Mormon bombs? I mean, it's the big elephant in the room, when you consider the evangelical base of the party. I would have though Newt would have scraped the bottom of that barrel by now. Used his best professorial tone and provided some "historical" background. "Massacres of good Christian families" and such.

I mean...It's Newt!

Or is there a gentleman's agreement in-force when it comes to that?
posted by Thorzdad at 4:50 PM on January 18

Allow me to sum up this primary.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 4:52 PM on January 18 [22 favorites]

Or is there a gentleman's agreement in-force when it comes to that?



Ahahahaha HAHAHAHAHAHa hahahahaha Newt Gingrich aahahahahahahaha
posted by iamabot at 4:53 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

Thorzdad: "Or is there a gentleman's agreement in-force when it comes to that?"

Maybe he didn't want to do it while Huntsman was in the race because then he'd have to deal with counter-attacks two candidates instead of just one.
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:55 PM on January 18

Newt is too busy blowing his racist dogwhistle.
posted by rmd1023 at 4:56 PM on January 18

fully automatic M-1 Garand with a 50 round clip

*twitch*

Romney's just so . . . bland. I think that the Republican Party is casting about, looking for ANYONE but Romney. But Gingritch has too long a political history (and too many skeletons) and Santorum would bring the Democrats out in full force.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 5:07 PM on January 18

These clowns may seem pretty dense, but their puppet-masters can afford a ton of brains. I am forced to conclude that either the GOP doesn't want to win this time around, or they have one hell of an October Surprise planned.
posted by ambulocetus at 5:09 PM on January 18

You never know what might happen, Santorum could surge from the rear...
posted by thewalrus at 5:10 PM on January 18 [8 favorites]

Thorzdad: "Am I the only one amazed that Newt hasn't started throwing Mormon bombs? "

Glass houses and all. I'm kind of surprised that Newt's campaign was encouraging negative campaigning at all, considering that it wouldn't at all be surprising if he had actual skeletons in his closet. Most of the things that we already know about Gingrich are pretty damn bad, and don't make for an electable candidate. Imagine if people started digging up even more dirt on him?

The party needs to start lining up behind a candidate, because the negative primary campaigning is absolutely destroying the credibility of any of the candidates.
posted by schmod at 5:12 PM on January 18

schmod: "Imagine if people started digging up even more dirt on him?"

We may not need to imagine. Apparently, Marianne has already had a nice chat with ABC News.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:15 PM on January 18

An interview they are helpfully holding until after South Carolina.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 5:16 PM on January 18

furiousxgeorge: "An interview they are helpfully holding until after South Carolina"
Yeah, what is this all about? Is concern about a potential negative effect of a particular news story on an election outcome a "thing" now?
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:23 PM on January 18

It's a thing.

Holding a fresh draft of the story just days before the election also was an issue of fairness, Mr. Keller said. I agree that candidates affected by a negative article deserve to have time — several days to a week — to get their response disseminated before voters head to the polls.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 5:27 PM on January 18

I'm usually not one to be a stick in the mud, but the possibility of Santorum surging from the rear is very real. We need to take a long and hard look at how he may challenge Obama in 2012. It's a slippery slope to pre-emptively consider a theoretical October surprise. When you're on top, and the support for Santorum is dribbling away underneath your position, that's all fine and good, but what if somebody has to quickly withdraw from the race? What will be the result for Santorum then?
posted by thewalrus at 5:34 PM on January 18 [7 favorites]

I'm more interested in the news that a non-insignificant portion of Romney's financial holdings are in offshore Cayman accounts in order to avoid the Treasury Dept.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:34 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

zombieflanders: "I'm more interested in the news that a non-insignificant portion of Romney's financial holdings are in offshore Cayman accounts in order to avoid the Treasury Dept"

I'm sure the information on Romney's financial dealings is just being held by news organizations out of fairness to give him plenty of time to get his message disseminated before the November general election.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:37 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

The party needs to start lining up behind a candidate, because the negative primary campaigning is absolutely destroying the credibility of any of the candidates.

This is the thing currently amusing me most about this: Absent something HUGELY game-changing, Romney's the nominee. And the others are basically falling all over themselves to make sure that they can't be picked as a running mate:

Huntsman: No way. the GOP base is already wary of LDS, and a double-Mormon ticket would destroy the participation they need.

Paul: Couldn't do it. He's too far removed from the values of the base, and on the decidedly weird other hand, risks putting too much focus on the bottom of the ticket.

Gingrich: Oh hell no. Too much of his opposition research on Romney is already public, and Romney's on him. Romney's biggest weakness, politically, is how prickly he is with the press. Which of their masters would allow them to begin a campaign with a month of walking back the very legitimate dirty laundry they themselves aired on one another?

Pawlenty: Roughly equivalent to having no running mate at all.

Perry, Cain, Bachmann, etc.: Of course not. Well, maybe not. It would amuse me, but I fear that they've learned a thing or two since 2008. The narrative for McCain was largely the same narrative that we can expect to be assigned to Romney for the general - that of a reasonably moderate conservative with a lifetime of experience and an understanding of fiscal responsibility. But as McCain learned after Norquist made him take on Palin, you put a "moderate conservative" next to an ass-clown, the whole thing will end up tasting like ass-clown.

Santorum: Of the current names, this is the only one I can picture the GOP Powers-The-Be™ allowing. He veers towards Ass-Clown territory himself, but his "google problem" will likely scare up as many voters in the base as it loses in the middle. His religious credentials will shore up those who are concerned about the Mormonism, and he's made a surprisingly strong showing. Still, he's Rick Santorum.

Frankly, if I sold my soul and were working for the RNC, I'd be spending from now until the convention offering Chris Christie anything he wanted. That combination, Romney/Christie... that would actually scare the shit out of me.
posted by Navelgazer at 5:46 PM on January 18 [5 favorites]

thewalrus: "I'm usually not one to be a stick in the mud, but the possibility of Santorum surging from the rear is very real. We need to take a long and hard look at how he may challenge Obama in 2012"

One of the interesting aspects of this Republican nomination sideshow is that the evangelicals have been unable to mobilize majority support in their party behind Santorum, their chosen candidate. That tells me they have lost the control of the party that they had in the 2000 and 2004 elections. Santorum's support doesn't really extend far beyond his evangelical base, and I've seen no signs of his campaign making any attempts to moderate him.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:51 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

Marco Rubio is another name that gets floated. Every time I hear it folks vaguely mention some corruption in the background that would come out but I never see anything concrete.

Pawlenty might be the way to go, boring is better than someone like Palin that takes over the media focus.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 5:51 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

Of course it's going to be Newt. The man invented modern pay-for-play politics, and all of the favors he was owed for stepping down when he did are now due.

The goopers are hell bent on nominating a wingnut, the last centrist they nominated got creamed, now is Newt's time...

...to get his cracker-white ass handed to him by a smarter and more connected Obama. Pay-for-play has not been a good investment: how's Sopa working out? The pipeline? The repeal of Obamacare? Yeah.
posted by Slap*Happy at 5:55 PM on January 18

An interview they are helpfully holding until after South Carolina.

Or not!

WaPo: ABC News interviewed Republican presidential contender Newt Gingrich’s second wife — with whom he’s said he has no relationship — and is likely to air the segment Thursday on “Nightline,” an ABC News executive told The Associated Press.

That’s two days before the South Carolina primary, where the former House speaker is trying to topple GOP front-runner Mitt Romney by casting himself as the more conservative option.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 6:03 PM on January 18

I think Huckabee would be a good choice for VP (pragmatically speaking). He's charismatic and has an air of friendliness and reasonableness that masks his odious qualities, and charisma is sorely lacking from Romney, while an air of friendliness and reasonableness is sorely lacking from any of the other potential nominees.
posted by Flunkie at 6:03 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

I'm sure the information on Romney's financial dealings is just being held by news organizations out of fairness to give him plenty of time to get his message disseminated before the November general election.

Actually, it's already being released. The tax records aren't accessible until Romney authorizes them, although he's apparently already trying to weasel around it by only releasing one year's worth (usually candidates release a decade or so) that have already been manipulated by his accountants. I don't think that's going to fly come April, and certainly not after the convention.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:04 PM on January 18

Huck would also (at least potentially) mitigate concerns that a significant portion of the base might have about voting for a Mormon. Or even for a Catholic.
posted by Flunkie at 6:09 PM on January 18 [2 favorites]

This is the thing currently amusing me most about this: Absent something HUGELY game-changing, Romney's the nominee. And the others are basically falling all over themselves to make sure that they can't be picked as a running mate

Romney will need a southerner. Someone with conservative credentials but who won't be scary to the independents. And I'm sure he'd like to win Florida...

You see where I'm going with this.

Seriously, what number of people who would otherwise vote for Romney will switch that vote if Jeb Bush is the VP pick? And do you think that number is greater or smaller than the number of W's 22% faithful who will find Jeb the sugar to help the medicine of Romney go down?
posted by Trurl at 6:10 PM on January 18

Frankly, if I sold my soul and were working for the RNC, I'd be spending from now until the convention offering Chris Christie anything he wanted. That combination, Romney/Christie... that would actually scare the shit out of me.

While I agree that's a scary ticket from a Democratic perspective, I don't see it. The base is already lukewarm on Romney...do you really think the RNC is going to try to shove another "moderate conservative" Northeasterner down their throats? The VP is going to have to be someone with solid base credentials, and anyone who was elected to statewide office in New Jersey just doesn't fit the bill.

Plus, what's Christie get out of it? If Romney wins, sure, he's the heir apparent, but he'd already be in a good position in 2020 with a long record as a governor of a blue state with some major conservative accomplishments. And if Romney loses...well, he's got the stain of being associated with a losing campaign, plus, it could well hurt his re-election chances back home to be a part of a national Republican campaign that will probably advocate some things that are anathema to most New Jerseyans. The downside for him is much higher than the upside.

I just don't see a Romney/Christie ticket - the RNC wouldn't risk alienating the base that much, and there's really not a whole lot in it from Christie's perspective.

Pawlenty's the safe choice...Huckabee makes lots of sense....I've heard Rubio's name mentioned, but I don't know much about him.
posted by breakin' the law at 6:13 PM on January 18

Jeb Bush would be the best choice to make sure that every democrat makes it to the polls that Tuesday, I imagine is the thinking with him.
posted by Navelgazer at 6:15 PM on January 18

Seriously, what number of people who would otherwise vote for Romney will switch that vote if Jeb Bush is the VP pick? And do you think that number is greater or smaller than the number of W's 22% faithful who will find Jeb the sugar to help the medicine of Romney go down?

Almost surely greater, but not because of anything Jeb Bush has done. Notice that George W. Bush's name has not been mentioned at all in this campaign. At all. There's a reason for that. Nominate Jeb, and you risk reminding the American public that a huge number of our problems - which could otherwise be safely, to a Republican, pinned on Obama - are traceable back to his brother.

I find it kind of funny that Jeb Bush is considered a viable national candidate for anything. Seriously, do you think the RNC/Fox/right-wing electoral machine will risk bringing back the horrible memory of George W. Bush, after vanquishing it so effectively with the Koch-funded Tea Party? Nobody named Bush is going to be nominated to any national Republican ticket for at least the next 20 years, and probably for as long as I'm alive.
posted by breakin' the law at 6:19 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

Jeb Bush would be the best choice to make sure that every democrat makes it to the polls that Tuesday, I imagine is the thinking with him.

Only I imagine that anyone who would turn out solely to keep Jeb out of the White House would turn out to keep any Republican out of the White House.

How many working people these days have the energy to spite vote?
posted by Trurl at 6:22 PM on January 18

Back when George H.W. Bush was polling strongly, before the economy took a downturn in 1992, Saturday Night Live did parody Democratic primary debate "The Race To Avoid Being The Guy Who Loses To Bush ". It's worth noting that Bill Clinton isn't even in the sketch.

That's the reason I won't just up and say that the Democrats will win the Presidency again. At one point everyone thought Bush was going to be a shoe-in.
posted by Xoebe at 6:44 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

How many working people these days have the energy to spite vote?

It's not about spite voting. The biggest threat to the Obama Re-election Committee isn't the Republicans. It's that the groundswell of inspiration they brought out in the voters isnt going to happen this time and they've got to make it up somewhere. Bring out another Bush and suddenly that groundswell comes back.
posted by Navelgazer at 6:45 PM on January 18

Is concern about a potential negative effect of a particular news story on an election outcome a "thing" now?

It's as much about a scandal too close to the election backfiring and helping the accused, because they can spin it as a dirty trick. E.G. George Bush's drunk driving conviction, which came out just before the November election and helped him.
posted by msalt at 6:49 PM on January 18

I know that TPM and Kevin Drum keep saying that Mitt's the nominee.

There is one person who doesn't believe that, and that's Mitt Romney. Today, he started the day by bringing put Talent and Molinari to start talking about how Clinton was Newt's fault, and new we have the Interview of Doom with the Ex, who turns out to be....a Romney Supporter!

Mitt has gone nuclear -- and has broken the 11th commandment.

Now, the question is this: what nukes does Newt have in his quiver?

We're going to find out in the next few days.
posted by eriko at 7:10 PM on January 18

If Mitt goes looking to Florida to find his veep, he won't be stopping by Jeb's house.
posted by crunchland at 7:27 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

silencers don't work on revolvers due to the cylinder gap.

Except this one!
posted by adamdschneider at 8:05 PM on January 18 [1 favorite]

gyc posted:
"The candidates lined up at the urinals, Giuliani next to McCain next to Huckabee, the rest all in a row. The debate was soon to start, so they were taking care of business - and laughing merrily at the one guy who wasn't there. Poking fun at him, mocking him, agreeing about how much they disliked him. Then Willard Mitt Romney walked into the bathroom and overheard them, bringing on a crashing silence" - Game Change p. 293

And you know what I find most fucked up about this? It's not them laughing at Romney, or treating him badly. It's the fact that all these guys are talking at the urinals.

That's so not okay.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:14 PM on January 18 [3 favorites]

I am an opposition research professional (although IAMNYORP). This is actually a pretty lousy excuse for a research book, especially at the presidential level. It's poorly organized. It doesn't lead with the strongest attacks. It cites lots of secondary sources on his record as governor of Massachusetts instead of going to the original state documents. It also contains lots of goofy typos and sloppy errors like citing a presidential debate that took place in June of 2006 when the debates didn't start until 2007. If this is the best McCain could do, I'm really unimpressed.

Those interested in a look at a really well done oppo file should check out the book that a Democratic research firm did on Rick Perry in 2010.
posted by fancypants at 8:40 PM on January 18 [8 favorites]

"I AM NYORP" sounds like a line I'm going to have to work into my D&D campaign...
posted by adamdschneider at 10:07 PM on January 18

The Globetrotters have no problem scoring touchdowns

Only because of the abysmal officiating. There were at least a dozen false starts that should have been called there.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 12:05 AM on January 19

That game was fixed. They were using a freakin' ladder, for Godsakes.
posted by box at 4:43 AM on January 19 [1 favorite]

Only because of the abysmal officiating.

Their mastery of the physics of razzamatazz has allowed them to bend time and space such that the officials can't see them.
posted by drezdn at 6:16 AM on January 19

Looks like Mitt may or may not have actually won Iowa.
posted by Dr. Zira at 6:20 AM on January 19

Romney will need a southerner. Someone with conservative credentials but who won't be scary to the independents.

My guess is that it's going to be Bob McDonnell. He's white (can't piss off an already meh base), male (can't risk another Palin), relatively young, a Southern governor who's decently popular with his constituency, has Tea Party and evangelical cred, is inoffensive and bland, and seems scandal-free. Plus, he's term-limited to leave this year already, and his AG managed to deflect a lot of attention. And considering that Virginia and neighboring North Carolina are both still in play (PPP had Obama ahead by 3-5 points in both as of this month, IIRC), any chance to take those out of Obama's column is likely to generate a lot of interest.

Pawlenty's the safe choice...Huckabee makes lots of sense....I've heard Rubio's name mentioned, but I don't know much about him.

I seem to remember Pawlenty having negative approval numbers, but I could be wrong. Huckabee's spent too much time on the payroll of Fox News to be palatable to independents. And I find it highly unlikely that a nominee that's already unpopular with a virulently anti-immigrant base would pick a physical manifestation of such, while at the same time a Latino from a nationality already hated by most other Latinos. Rubio also has a shady record vis-a-vis his parent's immigration, too, since he claims they were political exiles under Castro, but they came here before Castro took power.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:37 AM on January 19

Santorum Edges Ahead of Romney in Iowa

Mitt Romney’s eight-vote victory in the Iowa caucuses will be rescinded on Thursday, following a two-week review by the state’s Republican Party that found that Rick Santorum actually finished 34 votes ahead of Mr. Romney, two party officials confirmed.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 6:43 AM on January 19

For those playing at home, 50 cal desert eagles are big and loud as f#ck, and silencers don't work on revolvers due to the cylinder gap.

That Desert Eagle sure is a weird-looking revolver...
posted by Kirth Gerson at 7:02 AM on January 19

This is actually a pretty lousy excuse for a research book, especially at the presidential level.

Yeah, I wasn't wondering about the provenance when I posted my original comment but now I am. Especially comparing it to the Perry book which is more than twice as long. I wonder if it was meant for a more specific purpose (like as a quick reference for the guys doing the attack ads).
posted by muddgirl at 7:13 AM on January 19

My guess is that it's going to be Bob McDonnell. --- That's interesting. His popularity ratings in the commonwealth are much higher than I expected them to be when I went looking. I figured Rubio or Christie would be on the short list before McDonnell, but you might be right.
posted by crunchland at 7:16 AM on January 19

I think the reason why Gingrich appeals is you can hear the dripping scorn for the federal government and the underclasses of America. White conservative members of the underclass assume he will fight to get them away from the awful poor people who are lazy and things they would rarely say on t.v. but get said indoors.

I just listen and read my news, but I swear to god, I feel he "wouldn't bust a grape in a fruit fight." He doesn't care about the white underclass, how could he? He's been in a bubble of wealth all his life. Maybe he's a good guy at heart and sort of knows this, and this is why he keeps shooting himself in the face with the wealth stuff.
posted by angrycat at 7:18 AM on January 19

> That Desert Eagle sure is a weird-looking revolver...

It's not a revolver, but it does have an open hammer that allows gas/sound to escape. Silencers really only work on guns that have enclosed mechanisms.
posted by Burhanistan at 7:19 AM on January 19

(oh the second sentence is about Romney. Whoops.)
posted by angrycat at 7:19 AM on January 19

It was one or the other, not a claim that the deagle itself was a revolver. Kid Charlegmagne remembered "his assassin either wielding a silenced revolver a Desert Eagle for a mission of covert close-in whacking". The point is that, this neat exception aside, neither would be a sneaky weapon. We must therefore consider the possibility that Glenn Beck's book is not perfect.
posted by cortex at 7:20 AM on January 19 [1 favorite]

I think that the book is most likely legit. There are some formatting tip-offs that it was done by a Republican researcher. At the time it was produced the McCain campaign was pretty broke so it was probably done on a shoestring budget and may have been expanded as McCain started to surge.
posted by fancypants at 7:56 AM on January 19 [1 favorite]

Looks like Mitt may or may not have actually won Iowa.
Santorum Edges Ahead of Romney in Iowa

Is it just me, or is the obsession with determining a "winner" in Iowa based on the number of votes overblown and ultimately meaningless? Romney, Santorum, and Paul each got 7 delegates from the Iowa caucus, which is what ultimately counts; seems to me it should be considered a three-way tie. That Romney got a few dozen more or less votes than Santorum—or, for that matter, that either of them got a few thousand more votes than Paul—is secondary.

The massive attention given to determining a "winner" based on the number of votes comes across to me as if a regular-season NFL game ended in a tie after overtime, but the sports media insisted on referring to the team that had more offensive yardage as the "winner" of the game.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 7:58 AM on January 19

Former Gingrich Wife Says He Asked for ‘Open Marriage’
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 7:58 AM on January 19

Breaking News: Gingrich secret fan of Dan Savage.

Also, I like how they use the term "a former wife of Newt Gingrich." Yes, it's accurate of course, but it also conjures up the image of a long string of former wives, not just the two he has.
posted by muddgirl at 8:16 AM on January 19

Breaking News: Rick Santorum Not At All A Fan of Dan Savage
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:54 AM on January 19 [2 favorites]

muddgirl: I think it's because though two divorces may not be a long stream, two adulterous affairs that lead to the new marriage really does magnify it in the minds of some people. (To be honest, as much as I am pretty 'let the candidate's private lives be private', it does to me too.)

DevilsAdvocate: "Is it just me, or is the obsession with determining a "winner" in Iowa based on the number of votes overblown and ultimately meaningless?"

It is not just you. It drives me crazy. On the 10 seconds of the Today show I saw this morning, I think Chuck Todd said that, though it didn't mater delegate wise, it was important because had they had known that this was the result the night of the caucus, it would have changed the momentum/coverage - without once even suggesting that what that really proves is that the style of coverage and what's being focused on within it is what is totally wrong.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 9:29 AM on January 19 [1 favorite]

Personally, I think Gingrich's infidelity and divorces are fair game the minute he publicly signs an agreement to "Protect Traditional Marriage."
posted by muddgirl at 9:33 AM on January 19 [2 favorites]

Meh. Family valuesonly seem to be relevant to the Republican Party until one of their own violates their family values, at which point they redefine family values. I mean, adultery scandals are so...1998 Clinton era. If nobody's been bothered thus far by the fact that Newt asked his first wife, Jackie, for a divorce so he could marry Marianne while Jackie was being treated for cancer, why should anyone be up in arms that he was boffing Calista while he was married to Marianne?
I have long wondered if maybe the fight for GLBT rights would be easily won by funneling money into mounting a serious Log Cabin Republican presidential candidate. I mean, look at all the stigma Sarah and Bristol Palin singlehandedly removed from unwed teen mothers.
posted by Dr. Zira at 9:34 AM on January 19 [2 favorites]

If nobody's been bothered thus far

That's a big 'if.' My impression is that significant portions of the GOP voting base are bothered by Gingrich's marital issues.
posted by muddgirl at 9:37 AM on January 19

muddgirl: "That's a big 'if.' My impression is that significant portions of the GOP voting base are bothered by Gingrich's marital issues."

I hope you are right. However, the popularity of Palin leads me to believe that hypocrisy is not an obstacle to one's credibility on the issue of moral values. Apparently the Lord is much, much more forgiving of moral missteps than he used to be, and preaching how you made moral missteps and repented from them is now viewed as a Republican candidate feature, rather than a bug.
posted by Dr. Zira at 9:45 AM on January 19

Palin is a pretty different case - there's no hypocrisy in advocating for pre-marital sex and also having a daughter who engaged in it. Furthermore, she gets to display the ultimate Christian virtue - overt and flashy forgiveness.
posted by muddgirl at 9:52 AM on January 19

LOL, "advocating for pre-marital sex." Darn it, I keep mixing up Palin and Suzie Bright.
posted by muddgirl at 9:52 AM on January 19

John McCain was dating his current wife while married to his previous wife. The Republican Party has no problem with nominating adulterers. They're good at ignoring facts.
posted by Flunkie at 10:18 AM on January 19

I'm not denying that Republican voters can ignore hypocricy in their candidates, but in this particular case I don't think it's accurate to say that voters don't care about Gingrich's personal life. It's not the most important factor, but I do think that conservative voters are concerned with 'character' and appearances.

McCain may have been unfaithful, but he appeared open and remorseful. Gingrich seems, well, like the hateful and vindictive person that he is.
posted by muddgirl at 10:52 AM on January 19

My guess is that it's going to be Bob McDonnell

"Romney / McDonnell"?
posted by Gelatin at 11:08 AM on January 19

"Romney / McDonnell"?

There's no way I could get on a marquee with those two. For lots of reasons, but also because there wouldn't be enough M's and N's

I'm not sure about his VP chances, but if Romney/McDonnell is the ticket, it would be like someone had somehow inputted "two Republican candidates" into the part of my brain that stereotypes and sculpted the results. Especially the hair.

I started thinking about VP possibilities for the first time last night when someone online suggested it was the reason for Rubio's quick and public PIPA turnaround. It's a fun hypothetical in a way, but after 2008, I should realize that it's a fool's bet. The question is going to get polled to death and back again until right up until the convention. If (probably when) Romney gets the nod, there's going to be the weirdest search ever to find somebody who will bring in the conservatives who might stay home because Romney is too moderate but also won't alienate the moderate independents who Romney is meant to attract. Unless the ignore the Tea Party, and probably even if they would, it's going to be a fucking mess.

I wish politics could somehow be removed from the important work of government because it's a really interesting sport sometimes.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 12:06 PM on January 19

Uh, regarding the Eagle/revolver thing, I think Kid Charlemagne just accidentally an or in his original comment. I don't think anyone is suggesting they're the same thing. There is no reason you could not put a suppressor on an Eagle, although supposedly it is subpar because of the way the system requires full power rounds to cycle properly.
posted by adamdschneider at 1:27 PM on January 19

There is no reason you could not put a suppressor on an Eagle.

It's on Youtube, but it's definitely not stealth assassin material.
posted by Winnemac at 6:06 PM on January 19

Yeah, most of that noise is the bullet crack. He says at the beginning they're supersonic, probably because of the aforementioned cycling problem with subsonic rounds.
posted by adamdschneider at 10:18 PM on January 19

The original comment indicated that it could be either a revolver or a desert eagle, so I addressed both. Putting a silencer on a .50 cal is just absurd, and also makes it barrel-heavy as f#ck.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:26 PM on January 19

Hey, man, there's nothing absurd about protecting your ears.
posted by adamdschneider at 5:39 AM on January 20

Bain gives more campaign money to Democrats than it does to Republicans
posted by furiousxgeorge at 8:21 AM on January 20

Bain gives more campaign money to Democrats than it does to Republicans

And what, exactly, are you trying to say here? Do you honestly believe that that means Republicans are going to be the better party when it comes to Bain or private equity? Because that's what this context-free "corellation=causation" link strongly implies. If you want to make a point or come out as a supporter of Ron Paul or Mitt Romney, just do so and get it over with.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:57 AM on January 20

Did you read the article, zombieflanders? The point is that during the general election, Democrats will have a hard time attacking Bain Capital (and by extension, Romney) because Obama received campaign donations from Bain Capital executives. It does not say that Democrats or republicans are "the better party," just that it's going to be a difficult charge to defend.
posted by muddgirl at 11:21 AM on January 20 [1 favorite]

Which (1) will help Romney hardly at all when it comes to one-on-one with the president, and (2) is not something I see as I see as Democrats having to defend too much. After all, the problem with Romney is that he ran Bain, not who he gave money to, and therefore is responsible for the shuttered companies and lost jobs and corporate profit. If the link had, say, pointed out who specifically received the donations, and what that had helped or hurt, well then maybe there would be point there. But since it's placed out of that context (as many of the similar posts and links are), it's just more mudslinging rather than a cogent argument about any particular issue. Also, it paints Democrats with a wide brush, and it reinforces a theme on MeFi and elsewhere that this election should be all about how Obama and the Democrats are disappointments instead of encouraging that anybody do some actual analysis and help come up with actual solutions on how to fix the problem with money in campaigns or how to defeat and defeat the much worse alternative who has huge implications (e.g. the Supreme Court and federal judges becoming almost entirely far-right for the next generation or three) outside of just becoming president.

If that's what you want to do, fine, but it's kind of a dick move and does absolutely nothing to help change the direction of the party or of politics.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:46 AM on January 20

If the link had, say, pointed out who specifically received the donations,

Recipients include Democratic senators facing tough reelection races this year, such as Jon Tester (Mont.), Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Bill Nelson (Fla.)...

But President Obama received a sizable share as well. He has accepted more than $80,000 from Bain employees since the beginning of 2007. Bain Capital employees gave $27,500 to Obama during the first three quarters of 2011.

Please read the article.
posted by muddgirl at 12:08 PM on January 20

No, I'm talking about a complete rundown of everybody, not just the few to make a point. And it said nothing about any related legislation. And the issue of offering commentary to the links about change rather than just lobbing spitballs still stands.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:28 PM on January 20

Why would it say anything about 'related legislation' when that has nothing to do with the topic of the article, which is 'Obama will have a hard time attacking Romney's record at Bain Capital when he takes campaign donations from Bain Capital'?

I guess I don't see what part you're not understanding. It's not an article attacking the Democrats or the Republicans. Furiousxgeorge is not attacking the Democrats or Republicans. It is an article about a potential campaign tactic (accusing Romney of 'vulture capitalism' or the like) which describes the strategy and then reviews why it may not be successful.
posted by muddgirl at 1:47 PM on January 20

I'm reading the article, and it's so weirdly written and being quoted so flippantly (when put into context of previous posts) that it comes off as a grudge piece. For instance, people don't donate to legislators just for shits 'n giggles, they do it to influence legislation. And for a piece on tactics and the lack of effectiveness, it does almost nothing to actually point out the issues with the tactics or their response, most notably with how involved the various people are.

As for what constitutes an attack, it's as much about what's left out as what is said outright. Same goes for mentions of Obama's governance compared to Ron Paul's (especially on civil rights), while conspicuously failing to say anything about the many similar or worse problems espoused by the latter.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:07 PM on January 20

Why does Mitt Romney have money in the Caymans? Two potential reasons.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 3:38 PM on January 20

I propose we all refer to it henceforth as "McBain Capital." I'll bet most of us have already done so in our heads.
posted by Dr. Zira at 9:30 PM on January 20

Dogs Against Romney
posted by mrgrimm at 2:19 PM on January 26 [2 favorites]

Pets With Newt 2012
posted by furiousxgeorge at 2:51 PM on January 26 [1 favorite]

romney (rom-ney) v. 1. To defecate in terror.
posted by homunculus at 1:43 PM on February 15 [1 favorite]

Romney has an assualt rifle that shoots santorum.
posted by Burhanistan at 1:44 PM on February 15 [1 favorite]

Oh my gosh, Burhanistan. I'd watched that video four times and enjoyed it more every time, but watching it again just now with your comment in mind took it to "a whole nother level"!
posted by darkstar at 11:31 AM on February 16

*splat*
posted by Burhanistan at 11:35 AM on February 16