A missive on the surprisingly catastrophic vulnerabilities of the modern electric grid.
March 11, 2012 5:49 PM Subscribe
"Luminous fingers of intense red, green, and violet light flicker and pulse across the northern and southern skies like a vast cosmic conflagration. Within minutes, millions of people are tweeting, texting, and blogging about the wondrous sight. But then the sky turns a deep blood red, and fascination turns to panic."
The majority of first-world electrical grids are well designed to deal with common natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes, but are surprisingly likely to catastrophically fail in the event of a large geomagnetic storm. A recent NASA article claims that over 130 million people would be left without power in America for months to years if a geomagnetic storm the magnitude of the storm of 1921 were to occur again. A storm the magnitude of the 1859 superstorm would be even more catastrophic. Hardening the electrical system to be resistant to such storms would be relatively inexpensive and simple, but there seems to be little will among utilities to do so.
This post was deleted for the following reason: Urp! An earlier post on this is still open, so ahead and add any new info there. -- taz
Conveniently, a CME is about to wipe out your precious data (not really) more info at Spaceweather.
posted by elpapacito at 5:52 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by elpapacito at 5:52 PM on March 11, 2012
The companies who run the electrical networks will do whatever you pay them to do. If the regulator provides no indication they want this kind of upgrading and doesn't provide any incentives they won't do anything.
posted by biffa at 5:58 PM on March 11, 2012 [2 favorites]
posted by biffa at 5:58 PM on March 11, 2012 [2 favorites]
"Hardening the electrical system to be resistant to such storms would be relatively inexpensive and simple …"
You might want to read that paper again…
posted by Pinback at 5:59 PM on March 11, 2012
You might want to read that paper again…
posted by Pinback at 5:59 PM on March 11, 2012
Yeah, the last ZOMG AURORA OF DEATH post is still open.
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:19 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:19 PM on March 11, 2012
NATURE IT ARE GONNA FUCK YOU UP
posted by Sebmojo at 6:26 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by Sebmojo at 6:26 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
oh, it are, are it
posted by This, of course, alludes to you at 6:29 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by This, of course, alludes to you at 6:29 PM on March 11, 2012
Just replace the word "solar" with "terrorist"and it'll get paid for, easy.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:30 PM on March 11, 2012 [2 favorites]
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:30 PM on March 11, 2012 [2 favorites]
But, the sun is a terrorist.
posted by TwelveTwo at 6:31 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by TwelveTwo at 6:31 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
Is there an alternative to the paper insulation on transformers that will offer more protection?
posted by arcticseal at 6:34 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by arcticseal at 6:34 PM on March 11, 2012
What level of panicked do I need to be about this? Y2K level? Super hurricane level? Radioactive bedbug level? I just need to know how much weaponry and food I'll need to stockpile.
posted by Alison at 6:38 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by Alison at 6:38 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
How ya feel about direct deposit now, punks ?
posted by y2karl at 6:52 PM on March 11, 2012 [2 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 6:52 PM on March 11, 2012 [2 favorites]
Its good to know the LA grid will go down because the LA DWP is too busy, well you know, working....
Los Angeles is gonna suck when this shit goes down. And there will be NO getting out of town in that emergency. Even on happy holidays, it takes three or four hours just to go (100 miles) on the freeways. So when TSHTF, the last place I want to be is on a freeway.
And when all the city cops and deputies have to leave this city to protect their homes 25-30 miles away, things will get really scary. Oh, and the Andrews International Security officers, that contract as police officers around the city fucking with people and spying on citizen groups (yeah I said it), they'll be the first to go home, if they even come to work that day.
Let's hope the MS13 and Crips and Bloods will try to run the streets. Then they can fight with each other until the National Guard or Army comes in and burns entire neighborhoods down so the politician's friends can redevelop the land. Which is too bad, LAPD has a full armory with APCs and heavy weapons. But they will raid that on their way to protect their homes.
Get water (many many gallons), lots of batteries, a handcrank radio, generator, and solar gear. And your own weapons.
But don't worry, the criminals have better weapons than honest citizens like us because here in Communist California, your rights have been limited to 10 round mags, non-removable rifle mags, and no really fun force multipliers. Those are only for cops and criminals. But in LA, what's the difference?
So Angelenos, get ready.
posted by brando_calrissian at 7:09 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
Los Angeles is gonna suck when this shit goes down. And there will be NO getting out of town in that emergency. Even on happy holidays, it takes three or four hours just to go (100 miles) on the freeways. So when TSHTF, the last place I want to be is on a freeway.
And when all the city cops and deputies have to leave this city to protect their homes 25-30 miles away, things will get really scary. Oh, and the Andrews International Security officers, that contract as police officers around the city fucking with people and spying on citizen groups (yeah I said it), they'll be the first to go home, if they even come to work that day.
Let's hope the MS13 and Crips and Bloods will try to run the streets. Then they can fight with each other until the National Guard or Army comes in and burns entire neighborhoods down so the politician's friends can redevelop the land. Which is too bad, LAPD has a full armory with APCs and heavy weapons. But they will raid that on their way to protect their homes.
Get water (many many gallons), lots of batteries, a handcrank radio, generator, and solar gear. And your own weapons.
But don't worry, the criminals have better weapons than honest citizens like us because here in Communist California, your rights have been limited to 10 round mags, non-removable rifle mags, and no really fun force multipliers. Those are only for cops and criminals. But in LA, what's the difference?
So Angelenos, get ready.
posted by brando_calrissian at 7:09 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
On the bright side, we'd be free of double posts for the duration.
posted by gimonca at 7:11 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by gimonca at 7:11 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
From the Perfect Storm article:
But the last time we had a truly powerful storm was in 1921—decades before developed economies became utterly dependent on electrical infrastructure.
Were people really that non-dependent on electrical infrastructure in the 1920s? I picture at least large cities being dependent on electricity by then.
posted by mendel at 7:13 PM on March 11, 2012
But the last time we had a truly powerful storm was in 1921—decades before developed economies became utterly dependent on electrical infrastructure.
Were people really that non-dependent on electrical infrastructure in the 1920s? I picture at least large cities being dependent on electricity by then.
posted by mendel at 7:13 PM on March 11, 2012
Army comes in and burns entire neighborhoods down so the politician's friends can redevelop the land
with their HANDS? Or does THEIR technology just keep working?
posted by mendel at 7:14 PM on March 11, 2012
with their HANDS? Or does THEIR technology just keep working?
posted by mendel at 7:14 PM on March 11, 2012
Let's go burn down the observatory so this will never happen again!
posted by usonian at 7:18 PM on March 11, 2012 [5 favorites]
posted by usonian at 7:18 PM on March 11, 2012 [5 favorites]
If only I could think of everything to say in one comment, but alas, you get three.
The 1989 storm that took out Hydro-Quebec's grid is probably of some relevance too.
posted by mendel at 7:19 PM on March 11, 2012
The 1989 storm that took out Hydro-Quebec's grid is probably of some relevance too.
posted by mendel at 7:19 PM on March 11, 2012
Were people really that non-dependent on electrical infrastructure in the 1920s? I picture at least large cities being dependent on electricity by then.
I'd imagine that electricity was available and being used perhaps even widely, but that the things being done with electricity didn't involve computers controlling everything under the sun, and that the electronic gadgets and such themselves weren't quite so delicate as what we have today. Light bulbs, electric fires, and industrial motors could lose power, but likely wouldn't themselves be harmed by the resulting power surge or random radiation of a solar storm. Modern electronics are something else entirely.
But really, it's the utter dependance of most modern western civilization on computers and such which makes it so vulnerable.
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on March 11, 2012
I'd imagine that electricity was available and being used perhaps even widely, but that the things being done with electricity didn't involve computers controlling everything under the sun, and that the electronic gadgets and such themselves weren't quite so delicate as what we have today. Light bulbs, electric fires, and industrial motors could lose power, but likely wouldn't themselves be harmed by the resulting power surge or random radiation of a solar storm. Modern electronics are something else entirely.
But really, it's the utter dependance of most modern western civilization on computers and such which makes it so vulnerable.
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on March 11, 2012
I asked Snake Plissken about it. He didn't seem worried.
posted by Brak at 7:28 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by Brak at 7:28 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
The article stated that higher voltage transformers are more susceptible to damage, so in the olden days geomagnetically induced currents wouldn't have been as likely to cause an outage since the transmission voltages in use were much lower.
posted by wierdo at 7:30 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by wierdo at 7:30 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
Were people really that non-dependent on electrical infrastructure in the 1920s? I picture at least large cities being dependent on electricity by then.
I'd guess we are several orders of magnitude more dependent on electricity now. Almost everything we do, from farming to movement of goods to monetary transactions to transportation to refrigeration to water distribution to climate control to communications requires on stable availability of electricity. The full report on this (warning -- over 100 pages) goes into a lot of detail about the incredible interconnectivity of our current systems, and how the longterm failure of the electric grid would have some extreme consequences, all the way down to potential breakdown of society.
http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507
I mean, imagine for a moment if the power went out in all of the states on the Eastern seaboard and the Pacific northwest and couldn't be brought back online for at least a year. Now imagine this, plus most of Europe, Asia, South America in a similar situation. It's impossible to speculate what kind of geopolitical effects such an event would have, but I'd hazard a guess it wouldn't be good.
posted by chakalakasp at 7:31 PM on March 11, 2012
I'd guess we are several orders of magnitude more dependent on electricity now. Almost everything we do, from farming to movement of goods to monetary transactions to transportation to refrigeration to water distribution to climate control to communications requires on stable availability of electricity. The full report on this (warning -- over 100 pages) goes into a lot of detail about the incredible interconnectivity of our current systems, and how the longterm failure of the electric grid would have some extreme consequences, all the way down to potential breakdown of society.
http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507
I mean, imagine for a moment if the power went out in all of the states on the Eastern seaboard and the Pacific northwest and couldn't be brought back online for at least a year. Now imagine this, plus most of Europe, Asia, South America in a similar situation. It's impossible to speculate what kind of geopolitical effects such an event would have, but I'd hazard a guess it wouldn't be good.
posted by chakalakasp at 7:31 PM on March 11, 2012
Were people really that non-dependent on electrical infrastructure in the 1920s? I picture at least large cities being dependent on electricity by then.
Name an aspect you think might have been dependent? Perhaps ice making used some electricity (but the compressors could have easily been driven by diesel or coal powered steam). Telegraph/telephone? Still pretty limited in use. Electricity except for light bulbs and a wireless was pretty rare back then. It wasn't till after WW2 the refrigeration became domestically widespread.
posted by bystander at 7:32 PM on March 11, 2012
Name an aspect you think might have been dependent? Perhaps ice making used some electricity (but the compressors could have easily been driven by diesel or coal powered steam). Telegraph/telephone? Still pretty limited in use. Electricity except for light bulbs and a wireless was pretty rare back then. It wasn't till after WW2 the refrigeration became domestically widespread.
posted by bystander at 7:32 PM on March 11, 2012
It amazes the Hell out of me how many of these stories are over-dramatized.
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 7:32 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 7:32 PM on March 11, 2012
mendel: with their HANDS? Or does THEIR technology just keep working?
I think a major geomagnetic storm would only fry the hardware that manages the power grid and some of the stuff plugged into it when the storm hit. Self-contained things (like vehicles) and anything not plugged into the power grid would probably be ok, as would anything behind a good surge protector. Things with large antennae might be burned out, however.
Of course, it doesn't matter for civilians because they can't use any of it without grid power (unless you have a generator, but good luck buying fuel in this scenario) but the military has generators and hardened power systems and fuel reserves so they will probably be somewhat functional pretty soon after it hits.
Probably the biggest problem for the military/police would be the destruction of the GPS system (geomagnetic storms can be extremely destructive to satellites) and the loss of a huge amount of communications capability. I'm sure the internet and phone networks would both be taken down, partly by power surges through long-distance cables and partly by having lots of their hardware left unpowered. They probably have some sort of backup system, but I doubt it's very good.
posted by Mitrovarr at 7:33 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
I think a major geomagnetic storm would only fry the hardware that manages the power grid and some of the stuff plugged into it when the storm hit. Self-contained things (like vehicles) and anything not plugged into the power grid would probably be ok, as would anything behind a good surge protector. Things with large antennae might be burned out, however.
Of course, it doesn't matter for civilians because they can't use any of it without grid power (unless you have a generator, but good luck buying fuel in this scenario) but the military has generators and hardened power systems and fuel reserves so they will probably be somewhat functional pretty soon after it hits.
Probably the biggest problem for the military/police would be the destruction of the GPS system (geomagnetic storms can be extremely destructive to satellites) and the loss of a huge amount of communications capability. I'm sure the internet and phone networks would both be taken down, partly by power surges through long-distance cables and partly by having lots of their hardware left unpowered. They probably have some sort of backup system, but I doubt it's very good.
posted by Mitrovarr at 7:33 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
A question, would such an event only affect the daylight side of the planet?
posted by bystander at 7:34 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by bystander at 7:34 PM on March 11, 2012
Failure of the grid in Canada is an immediate life or death issue during winter. Our heating systems may burn oil and gas but the control systems are all electric.
posted by storybored at 7:35 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by storybored at 7:35 PM on March 11, 2012
It amazes the Hell out of me how many of these stories are over-dramatized.
I'm not sure what's overdramatic about it; it's an event that has been empirically proven to happen at least once every 500 years (via data from ice cores, plus empirical observations of it occurring during the 19th and 20th centuries), and the potential effects on the electrical infrastructure are highly studied and mostly agreed-upon. In my mind, it is very similar to the studies that were done on New Orleans vulnerability to high-end hurricanes; it's was really just a matter of hydrology and topology, and the projections were mostly uncontroversial and turned out to be more or less on the money.
posted by chakalakasp at 7:37 PM on March 11, 2012 [3 favorites]
I'm not sure what's overdramatic about it; it's an event that has been empirically proven to happen at least once every 500 years (via data from ice cores, plus empirical observations of it occurring during the 19th and 20th centuries), and the potential effects on the electrical infrastructure are highly studied and mostly agreed-upon. In my mind, it is very similar to the studies that were done on New Orleans vulnerability to high-end hurricanes; it's was really just a matter of hydrology and topology, and the projections were mostly uncontroversial and turned out to be more or less on the money.
posted by chakalakasp at 7:37 PM on March 11, 2012 [3 favorites]
Alright, this where we find what you city slickers are made of!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 8:09 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 8:09 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
Alright, this where we find what you city slickers are made of!Meat. Glorious, juicy, tasty meat.
posted by smidgen at 8:16 PM on March 11, 2012 [3 favorites]
This is exactly why the whole "invisible hand" idea is so very bogus.
No one's going to do anything until it's too late. Then there will be billions in damage, if we're lucky!, and everyone will say, "How could we have known? No one else did it!"
We just experienced this in the financial meltdown and we'll keep experiencing it again and again.
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 8:18 PM on March 11, 2012 [3 favorites]
No one's going to do anything until it's too late. Then there will be billions in damage, if we're lucky!, and everyone will say, "How could we have known? No one else did it!"
We just experienced this in the financial meltdown and we'll keep experiencing it again and again.
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 8:18 PM on March 11, 2012 [3 favorites]
Ah, I see we're getting a head start on the whole Being Afraid Of The Sky thing.
posted by The Whelk at 8:21 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by The Whelk at 8:21 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
OK, so I've just recently watched Super 8 on DVD, and I think I have a pretty good idea what's about to happen now. So the key thing to remember is to not be afraid, and to be open and comforting with our electro-monster overlords, and everything will work out in the end.
posted by Metro Gnome at 8:40 PM on March 11, 2012
posted by Metro Gnome at 8:40 PM on March 11, 2012
Ah, I see we're getting a head start on the whole Being Afraid Of The Sky thing.
Who are we racing? Is it terrorists?
posted by TwelveTwo at 8:48 PM on March 11, 2012
Who are we racing? Is it terrorists?
posted by TwelveTwo at 8:48 PM on March 11, 2012
Metafilter is people!
posted by telstar at 9:02 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
posted by telstar at 9:02 PM on March 11, 2012 [1 favorite]
Catblack: "And when we all end up blind, the triffids take over..."
What the fuck's a Triffid?!
posted by Reverend John at 9:37 PM on March 11, 2012
What the fuck's a Triffid?!
posted by Reverend John at 9:37 PM on March 11, 2012
Where in the hell is my Mr. Fusion?
A society where each dwelling and commercial building is powered by its own independent power source would be interesting. Especially if the internet was mesh radio links.
posted by maxwelton at 10:20 PM on March 11, 2012
A society where each dwelling and commercial building is powered by its own independent power source would be interesting. Especially if the internet was mesh radio links.
posted by maxwelton at 10:20 PM on March 11, 2012
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posted by Catblack at 5:52 PM on March 11, 2012 [9 favorites]