3. Conspiracy rule... [generally] speaking, groups of people do not successfully conceive and execute dastardly schemes; even if they want to, they are typically confounded by the compound physics of too many moving parts and human fallibility. (You can think of this as the Occam’s Razor of geopolitics.)
To be sure, conspiracies exist—what would war be without them, for instance? But they are much rarer than many suppose.
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