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I'll take the over on the national anthem.
February 3, 2013 1:22 PM   Subscribe

Super Bowl Prop Bets! Neatly organized based on how you think the game will play out, with a few non-football bets at the end. The Las Vegas Sun weighs in with some picks of their own.
posted by DynamiteToast (78 comments total)

 
I'd love to take the under on everything Colin Kaepernick does especially rushing. In my opinion that kid's gonna fold like new money in the face of a wave of purple madness.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 2:11 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


This is basically a sobriety/IQ test from Vegas to see if you're interested in giving them free money. The LVH actually moved the vig on this up from one cent (-101/-101) a year ago to two cents this year, suggesting that they think they can get just as much action on this bet with the extra juice. FYI: For some reason, people tend to favor "heads" on this bet. Just donate your money to charity instead. Or light it on fire.
This absolutely stupefies/amuses me. I mean, the stones on those guys. Anyone placing this bet, sober or not, should be required by law to be slapped in the face when they do it.
posted by axiom at 2:11 PM on February 3, 2013


Go, Puppy Bowl!
posted by ericb at 2:12 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


I'd love to take the under on everything Colin Kaepernick does especially rushing. In my opinion that kid's gonna fold like new money in the face of a wave of purple madness.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:11 PM on February 3 [+] [!]


I would love to take that bet, becaus Colin Kaepernick was placed on Earth just to make Ray Lewis and the rest of the over-rated, ancient, wheezing blowhards that comprise the Baltimore Ravens defense look like flat-footed fools in this very game. It is divine retribution. It is Meant To Be.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 2:26 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


The friend of a friend used to host Super Bowl parties some years back, and prop bets were the only kind of bets anyone was allowed to make. "Length of the national anthem" and "outcome of the coin toss" were two perennials. There may also have been a couple bets about the ads.

None of us knew a damn thing about football.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:26 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


bop: Friendly bet? Whoever loses has to procure either a Ray or Colin K jersey and post a photo on twitter of themself wearing it?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 2:29 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


This is basically a sobriety/IQ test from Vegas to see if you're interested in giving them free money. The LVH actually moved the vig on this up from one cent (-101/-101) a year ago to two cents this year, suggesting that they think they can get just as much action on this bet with the extra juice. FYI: For some reason, people tend to favor "heads" on this bet. Just donate your money to charity instead. Or light it on fire.

This absolutely stupefies/amuses me. I mean, the stones on those guys. Anyone placing this bet, sober or not, should be required by law to be slapped in the face when they do it.
posted by axiom at 2:11 PM on February 3 [+][!]


That's still a better wager than red/black at the roulette table. Not saying that someone playing roulette shouldn't be slapped, mind you.
posted by zoog at 2:35 PM on February 3, 2013 [3 favorites]


Friendly bet?

Have you priced jerseys lately?!?! No way. How about a six-pack of beer, winner's choice, details to be worked out via MeFiMail?
posted by BitterOldPunk at 2:35 PM on February 3, 2013


Done. Oh but wait what are we betting on? How about you take the over on his rushing yards as set in the article?

How many rushing yards will Colin Kaepernick accrue?
Over 48.5 yards: -110
Under 48.5 yards: -110


If he rushes for over 48 yards you win. If under I do?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 2:49 PM on February 3, 2013


I'd take those odds.
posted by schyler523 at 2:53 PM on February 3, 2013


See, I figure casino roulette is basically like James Bond fantasy roleplaying. You're paying money to feel like The Sort Of Classy Motherfucker Who Plays Roulette. If you're into that fantasy then whatever, maybe it's worth it.

What I don't see is how anyone fantasizes about being The Sort Of [Adjective] Motherfucker Who Bets On A Televised Coin Toss.
posted by Now there are two. There are two _______. at 2:55 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Is there an over / under number for injured players getting carted off? I am pretty sure the 49er's are going to go for the "kill the kick returner Jones" strategy. He is prone to brain farts and New Orleans is his home city. That poor sucker has really got a bullseye on him tonight.
posted by bukvich at 2:56 PM on February 3, 2013


Now there are two. There are two _______.: "James Bond fantasy roleplaying."

Let's play some goddamned baccarat!
posted by boo_radley at 3:01 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


I can't believe I'm sitting in Macy's, missing the Puppy Bowl.
posted by computech_apolloniajames at 3:06 PM on February 3, 2013


The Football Outsiders column he links to has even more really unhinged bets, in case you'd like to wager on how long the Harbaugh brothers' hug at the end of the game will last, how many tweets per second will happen during the game, or what color top Beyonce will be wearing.
posted by Copronymus at 3:09 PM on February 3, 2013


If he rushes for over 48 yards you win. If under I do?

You're on. And if he rushes for exactly 48 we both give $50 to the ACLU. Just to keep things exciting.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 3:10 PM on February 3, 2013 [3 favorites]


Haha awesome.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 3:14 PM on February 3, 2013


This is basically a sobriety/IQ test from Vegas to see if you're interested in giving them free money. The LVH actually moved the vig on this up from one cent (-101/-101) a year ago to two cents this year, suggesting that they think they can get just as much action on this bet with the extra juice. FYI: For some reason, people tend to favor "heads" on this bet. Just donate your money to charity instead. Or light it on fire.

That's still a better wager than red/black at the roulette table. Not saying that someone playing roulette shouldn't be slapped, mind you.

I don't get the outrage over this, either. I guess Barnwell's point, carried through in the analysis he does of the other bets, is that you should only bet if the expected value is in your favor even after accounting for the vig. But people obviously don't always behave that way, or else there wouldn't be casinos. In bets like this, the bettor is paying an expected value premium for the opportunity to win money. Negative risk-premium FTW!

Anyway, I do love Superbowl prop bets. A few years ago (can't remember which Superbowl it was), a friend of mine noticed that some betting websites were offering the following prop bets: Team A final score Even/Odd, Team B final score Even/Odd, and Total Score Even/Odd. Each paid off slightly less than even money, since they were almost coin flips. The amazing thing, though, was that you could also parlay the bets together, and the combined bet paid off as though they were independent, that is, "Team A Score Even" + "Team B Score Even" + "Total Score Even" paid off at a ratio of 8:1 (including the bet) when it clearly should have been 4:1, since any of the two outcomes determine the third one. Buying out the 4 actually possible combinations earned him a nice profit, I believe. I guess the point is that it's not just gamblers who sometimes do dumb things.
posted by albrecht at 3:18 PM on February 3, 2013 [6 favorites]


2:15?
posted by box at 3:21 PM on February 3, 2013


What's the line on a Beyonce halftime lip sync?
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:16 PM on February 3, 2013


Prediction: It's going to be a good day to not be a Niners fan.
posted by Big_B at 4:24 PM on February 3, 2013


Who had the -100 on second quarter brawl?
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:29 PM on February 3, 2013


Superbowl? Lemmings.
posted by sebastienbailard at 4:36 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Wow, CBS' shows are terrible!
posted by box at 4:38 PM on February 3, 2013


That was a questionable marketing strategy for a German car company.
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:39 PM on February 3, 2013


If someone guessed the fake field goal, they deserve to be rich.
posted by drezdn at 4:43 PM on February 3, 2013


To be fair, I think the SF defense did.
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:44 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


Every time Beyonce sings, a 49er gets another sleeve tattoo.
posted by Dr. Zira at 4:59 PM on February 3, 2013


Argh.

Hey, 48 yards is only 12 per quarter, right. No problem.

*watches Kaep duck for no yards*

Shit.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 5:00 PM on February 3, 2013


In Puppy Bowl news, the kitties are in complete sensory meltdown from the confetti drop.
posted by dirigibleman at 5:04 PM on February 3, 2013 [3 favorites]


This isn't how I pictured the game going down at all.
posted by drezdn at 5:07 PM on February 3, 2013


The hedgehog cheerleaders were lackluster, but I was pleased by the performance of the catahoulas,* particularly Fitz.

*Whose owners should, in my experience, set aside their puppy earnings for ACL surgery.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:08 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Will Jay come out?
posted by box at 5:11 PM on February 3, 2013


I haven't seen this many things on fire since that Halloween I spent on Castro Street in 1996.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:13 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


is this the first ever all female halftime show?
posted by HappyHippo at 5:34 PM on February 3, 2013


Beyonce used up all the electricity.
posted by dirigibleman at 5:39 PM on February 3, 2013 [3 favorites]


I am not watching it, but my BF said there appeared to be a power malfunction.
posted by computech_apolloniajames at 5:40 PM on February 3, 2013


Maybe San Francisco is trying the large-scale equivalent of pulling the fire alarm when you're about to fail a big exam.
posted by kagredon at 5:43 PM on February 3, 2013 [6 favorites]


It's just part of SF's master plan to see if anyone notices when they substitute the cast of Downton Abbey for their offensive line.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:44 PM on February 3, 2013 [4 favorites]


Fissure/Meteor check?
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 5:46 PM on February 3, 2013 [4 favorites]


Oh, crap! Bane!
posted by dirigibleman at 5:47 PM on February 3, 2013 [6 favorites]


I think Baltimore was surging ahead so hard it tripped the breakers.

GO FISSURE!
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 5:48 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


Oh, why, why did I bet against a power outage?
posted by box at 5:49 PM on February 3, 2013 [4 favorites]


San Francisco should just concede and save us all the pain of watching them get crushed even more.
posted by octothorpe at 5:52 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


Surprise Halftime Performance: A Tribute to Edgar Allen Poe.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:53 PM on February 3, 2013 [4 favorites]


This plan didn't help out Fulham yesterday either.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:54 PM on February 3, 2013


It's Beyonce's hair dryer.
posted by madcaptenor at 5:56 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


robocop is bleeding: "This plan didn't help out Fulham yesterday either."
That photo is fantastic. Fergie is NOT IMPRESSED.
posted by Dr. Zira at 5:56 PM on February 3, 2013


Is anyone in here watching the Puppy Bowl? Did they turn off the lights and watch the puppies get all confused and sleepy? Because that sounds pretty cute.
posted by kagredon at 5:57 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


What's the over/under of another MUNI bus getting torched in the Mission?
posted by Existential Dread at 6:04 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


Since y'all are getting a second halftime, how about watching a good halftime show?
posted by ob1quixote at 6:04 PM on February 3, 2013


It took a lot of power to open the portal home for the rest of Destiny's Child.
posted by drezdn at 6:05 PM on February 3, 2013 [3 favorites]


What's killing me is that they haven't shown a single commercial during the power outage. How is that even possible?
posted by ob1quixote at 6:10 PM on February 3, 2013


If you're the advertiser you are not going to pay for an ad placement that occurs during dead time.
posted by ardgedee at 6:13 PM on February 3, 2013


Well, at least the SF defense is well rested now. Maybe they can get a stop?
posted by Groundhog Week at 6:13 PM on February 3, 2013


Probably because all the commercials are sold by win in the game they play, so showing more would fuck things up.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 6:13 PM on February 3, 2013


Maybe they can get a stop?

They were well rested going into the first Ravens drive too.
posted by drezdn at 6:14 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Actually what impresses me, apropos commercials, is how many network placements there are this year. The network had a LOT of unpurchased ad slots.
posted by ardgedee at 6:17 PM on February 3, 2013


how about all the nflevolution commercials that seems like a propaganda campaign
posted by HappyHippo at 6:24 PM on February 3, 2013


You guys, this Downton halftime show is unbelievable.
posted by Dr. Zira at 6:35 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


Paul Harvey just reached out from beyond the grave and stole the win for the best commercial.
posted by HappyHippo at 7:02 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Noam Chomsky Throws Most Depressing Superbowl Party Ever
posted by telstar at 7:05 PM on February 3, 2013


Wow, Culliver was all over that guy. I mean, like really grabbing him. Hands everywhere.
posted by dirigibleman at 7:16 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


telstar, that was pretty great.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 7:23 PM on February 3, 2013


As a special teams geek, that was the greatest Super Bowl I have ever seen--at least the last Ravens drive. The safety to kill eight of the remaining twelve seconds and leave the 49ers still down three! I was screaming at my screen with delight the whole time.

And I was also calculating and recalculating how long a potential fair catch free kick would be to potentially tie the game... like eighty yards? Would have been fun to see it tried. But you can't have everything.
posted by Earthtopus at 7:58 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


It's easy to kill the clock when you can just hug a dude without the refs calling it. Pretty egregious play.
posted by Existential Dread at 8:02 PM on February 3, 2013


I also thought the Ravens defense on the 4th and goal was illegal and should have been flagged but I am a 49er's fan. At least this one was better than the last Raiders appearance against Tampa Bay. That was pure gack.
posted by bukvich at 8:05 PM on February 3, 2013


Awwww yeeeeeaaaaaah.

Sixty-two yards.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 8:12 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Farts. I'm glad you got something out that man. I was rooting for the 9ers despite my disbelief in Colin K. Good thing I took the ravens overall too ;) Memail me if you have ideas about how to get you beer!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 8:25 PM on February 3, 2013


Perhaps so. What's the flag do, though? Six or seven seconds left instead of four? Ginn's kickoff return would probably have used at least five or six. Is it possible to move the spot of a free kick?

Did this rob me of a 70-yard fair catch free kick attempt by Akers?
posted by Earthtopus at 8:27 PM on February 3, 2013 [1 favorite]


Slayings not forgotten, Ray Lewis not forgiven, Brent Schrotenboer, USA Today, 12 January 2013

Ray Lewis addresses the families of two slain men from Atlanta stabbings during pregame show, Frank Schwab, Shutdown Corner, 3 February 2013
posted by ob1quixote at 8:43 PM on February 3, 2013


As Minnesota Vikings punter Chris Kluwe explains, had the holding penalty been called, nothing would have changed. If the penalty happens in the endzone, it's a safety. If it happens outside the endzone, it's half the distance. Either way, the play, thus the clock, doesn't stop till the punter goes out of bounds*. It does seem like that's a loophole in the rules where there's no incentive for the offense not to hold.

*And learn the fucking rules, Skip Bayless.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:00 PM on February 3, 2013 [2 favorites]


I think the critical decision was somewhere in the 1st-3rd down of San Francisco's last drive starting with first and goal. A run on third down might have forced Baltimore to panic and call a timeout even if it didn't succeed outright, and 4th and goal from the 2 is more advantageous than from the five. Obviously, if they turned the ball over (which they would end up doing anyway) they couldn't stop BAL, having squandered a timeout (and almost a second, with the weird challenge) earlier. That was the moment they should want back.
posted by Earthtopus at 9:23 PM on February 3, 2013


By the way, from last year's Madonna/Superbowl thread:


I joked with the 20-something guys I was watching the game with that, when they're my age, Beyonce will be the half-time entertainer.
posted by mmrtnt at 1:18 PM on February 6, 2012 [1 favorite +] [!] No other comments.

Beyonce or J. Lo for sure, in time. The real gutsy call for next year would be Jay-Z.
posted by msalt at 1:32 PM on February 6, 2012 [+] [!] Other [4/5]: «≡»


There's a prop bet people should have taken the under on.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:17 PM on February 3, 2013


Anyone out there preparing a thread about the ads, or is this the "general catch-all" thread for all Super Bowl commentary?

(Because that GoDaddy ad with the two people making out has disturbed me greatly and I need to find my support group.)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:49 AM on February 4, 2013 [1 favorite]


octothorpe: "San Francisco should just concede and save us all the pain of watching them get crushed even more."

I guess I was very wrong, SF almost pulled it off. Good game except for taking almost four and a half hours.
posted by octothorpe at 6:09 AM on February 4, 2013


Would have been fun to see it tried. But you can't have everything.

Basically, you would have had to have had a shanked kick *and* a heads up defender up front who would know to call for a fair catch, then make it. The problem, of course, is the guys with good hands are back deep.

But it would have taken an already remarkable game (thanks to the close score and the power outage) to legendary status if SF had tied on a free catch fair kick.

Heck, the referee would have to spend a couple of minutes explaining it to everyone.

One of the oddities of the fair catch free kick is that, unlike a regular field goal, the defenders are required to stand at least 10 yards back from the line of scrimmage. This makes longer kicks possible -- the limit on the best kickers isn't their legs, it's that at long distances, the kick is lower because the kickers is putting the energy to distance, not height. So, over 55 yards, they become much easier to block.

But with the fair catch free kick, those blockers are ten yards away.

In the NFL, the last FCFK was Mason Crosby with the Packers in 2008, where he missed a 69 yard kick by about three yards. The last made one was in 1976, when Ray Wersching made a 45 yard FCFK at the end of the half against Buffalo.
posted by eriko at 6:23 AM on February 4, 2013 [2 favorites]


OMG, you guys, you would not believe how much money I made putting just a few dollars on "Major Delay of Game Due To Technical Difficulties."
posted by straight at 2:23 PM on February 4, 2013 [2 favorites]


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