Yemen on Brink of Civil War
March 26, 2015 3:56 PM Subscribe
Yemen's President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi has fled the country as Saudi Arabia initiates a bombing campaign against the Houthi rebels. A ground invasion by Egypt and other members of Saudi Arabia's 10-country coalition is apparently to follow the bombing. The United States has withdrawn its special operations forces from Yemeni territory with a potential civil war looming.
The Houthis are aligned with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted from the presidency during the Arab Spring. They have recently seized intelligence files that contain details of US operations from Yemen’s National Security Bureau.
Updates and analysis from these twitter handles.
(Previously)
The Houthis are aligned with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was ousted from the presidency during the Arab Spring. They have recently seized intelligence files that contain details of US operations from Yemen’s National Security Bureau.
Updates and analysis from these twitter handles.
(Previously)
Yemen Crisis: Saudi Arabia Masses 150,000 Troops to Support Airstrikes
This has potential to be very big and bloody.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:09 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
This has potential to be very big and bloody.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:09 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
So the King called up his jet fighters ...
posted by octobersurprise at 4:10 PM on March 26, 2015 [21 favorites]
posted by octobersurprise at 4:10 PM on March 26, 2015 [21 favorites]
Gas prices spike in 3...2...1...
posted by Thorzdad at 4:19 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 4:19 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
The USG shits and goes home leaving others with the mess. Sound familiar as foreign policy? Since.... 1946?
posted by SteveLaudig at 4:27 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by SteveLaudig at 4:27 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Some juicy items from Twitter:
Map of spread of Houthi territorial control
Map of non-state actors in Yemen
Map of civilian flights routing around Yemeni airspace
Video of life in Yemen under Houthis
Video of protest in Saana against Saudi airstrikes
The US still considers Yemen a model for its counterterrorism initiatives.
And, Thorzdad, right on cue: oil prices spike.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 4:30 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Map of spread of Houthi territorial control
Map of non-state actors in Yemen
Map of civilian flights routing around Yemeni airspace
Video of life in Yemen under Houthis
Video of protest in Saana against Saudi airstrikes
The US still considers Yemen a model for its counterterrorism initiatives.
And, Thorzdad, right on cue: oil prices spike.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 4:30 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Ah yes, because as Gamal Nasser's ghost can tell you, the last Egyptian military mission in Yemen went so swimmingly....
I think that's something people forget..... Yemen has been a proxy battleground for a long time. 110 years ago, it was a proxy battle ground between the British Empire and the Ottomans.... during the cold war, it was a proxy battle ground between Nasser's Arab League imperialist ambitions and the British empire..... and now, it is becoming the proxy battle ground between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 4:33 PM on March 26, 2015 [10 favorites]
I think that's something people forget..... Yemen has been a proxy battleground for a long time. 110 years ago, it was a proxy battle ground between the British Empire and the Ottomans.... during the cold war, it was a proxy battle ground between Nasser's Arab League imperialist ambitions and the British empire..... and now, it is becoming the proxy battle ground between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 4:33 PM on March 26, 2015 [10 favorites]
To be fair, just about the whole region is becoming a proxy battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran..
(Saudi Arabia and Iran excluded, of course..)
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:35 PM on March 26, 2015 [7 favorites]
(Saudi Arabia and Iran excluded, of course..)
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:35 PM on March 26, 2015 [7 favorites]
Which only become possible because we turned Iraq into a failed state. Heck of a job, Bushy.
We need to stop messing with these places and let them deal with their own problems. That means Syria, Libya, Iraq, the whole shebang.
posted by Justinian at 4:37 PM on March 26, 2015 [11 favorites]
We need to stop messing with these places and let them deal with their own problems. That means Syria, Libya, Iraq, the whole shebang.
posted by Justinian at 4:37 PM on March 26, 2015 [11 favorites]
We need to stop messing with these places and let them deal with their own problems. That means Syria, Libya, Iraq, the whole shebang.
just as long as they keep on selling oil on the international markets... oh wait.
Yemen Crisis: Saudi Arabia Masses 150,000 Troops to Support Airstrikes
the most effective, well-educated, competent autocratic ruling family since the Romanovs... with a well-disciplined and battle hardened army to boot. I'm sure this will go well.
posted by ennui.bz at 4:46 PM on March 26, 2015 [6 favorites]
just as long as they keep on selling oil on the international markets... oh wait.
Yemen Crisis: Saudi Arabia Masses 150,000 Troops to Support Airstrikes
the most effective, well-educated, competent autocratic ruling family since the Romanovs... with a well-disciplined and battle hardened army to boot. I'm sure this will go well.
posted by ennui.bz at 4:46 PM on March 26, 2015 [6 favorites]
Yemen has not been stable in the last 40 years. Egypt invaded in the 1970s and it went badly. North and South Yemen fought in 1979. South Yemenhad a civil war for much of the 1980s. The 1990s saw North conquer the south. AQAP launched its insurgency in the 2000s. 2009 saw some fighting by Saudi Arabia (it went badly). The latest disaster has been unfolding for the last 3 years. The invasion of Iraq had no significant impact on Yemen.
posted by humanfont at 4:48 PM on March 26, 2015 [9 favorites]
posted by humanfont at 4:48 PM on March 26, 2015 [9 favorites]
also (from the telegraph link)
posted by ennui.bz at 4:49 PM on March 26, 2015 [8 favorites]
The Saudis were reported to have mobilised 150,000 troops – though that is double most estimates of the size of the Saudi army.LOL.
posted by ennui.bz at 4:49 PM on March 26, 2015 [8 favorites]
Don't forget also that, on top of everything else, Yemen is running out of water.
posted by Cash4Lead at 5:34 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Cash4Lead at 5:34 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Yemen has been a proxy battleground for a long time.
So who are we to argue with tradition?
posted by happyroach at 5:35 PM on March 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
So who are we to argue with tradition?
posted by happyroach at 5:35 PM on March 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
The Wikipedia article on this ongoing mess mentions that the U.S. had at one time been working with the Houthis against Al Quaida.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:40 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Thorzdad at 5:40 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Sounds like a fun group of people.
At first glance the official slogan and emblem of the Houthis, who are now the dominant force in Yemen, does not offer much hope to American policy makers.
It includes the words “Death to America, death to Israel, damnation to the Jews.” Houthis shout it when they march, wear it on arm patches, paint it on buildings and stick it onto their car windows. When pictured, those words are rendered in red, framed by “God is great” and “Victory to Islam” in green, on a white background.
Sometimes the red words are shown dripping blood.
But for all their harsh sloganeering, the Houthis may be a lot more moderate than it suggests, according to many diplomats and analysts who have followed them closely.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:42 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
At first glance the official slogan and emblem of the Houthis, who are now the dominant force in Yemen, does not offer much hope to American policy makers.
It includes the words “Death to America, death to Israel, damnation to the Jews.” Houthis shout it when they march, wear it on arm patches, paint it on buildings and stick it onto their car windows. When pictured, those words are rendered in red, framed by “God is great” and “Victory to Islam” in green, on a white background.
Sometimes the red words are shown dripping blood.
But for all their harsh sloganeering, the Houthis may be a lot more moderate than it suggests, according to many diplomats and analysts who have followed them closely.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:42 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Don't forget also that, on top of everything else, Yemen is running out of water.
That article is distressing.
That article is distressing.
Yemenis spend, on average, between a quarter and a third of their income on qat, about $4bn a year nationally. According to one Dutch study, the qat business accounts for 16% of employment and 25% of GDP.posted by junco at 5:44 PM on March 26, 2015 [19 favorites]
Qat trees are deep-rooted and thirsty, and because only the soft, leafy tops of the tree are suitable for consumption, they are notoriously wasteful to grow. Some analyses suggest that 40% of all the fresh water available in Yemen is used in the cultivation of a product that has no nutritional value whatsoever – and this in a country where more than half of all children under five are stunted by malnutrition. Yet the area of land dedicated to the cultivation of qat continues to expand by 10% a year.
the most effective, well-educated, competent autocratic ruling family since the Romanovs... with a well-disciplined and battle hardened army to boot. I'm sure this will go well.
I'm bemused by the idea of Saudi Arabia even having an army - are the enlisted ranks all foreign guest workers or something? Where would you find 75,000 Saudi nationals willing and able to do a blue collar job?
posted by strangely stunted trees at 5:53 PM on March 26, 2015 [13 favorites]
I'm bemused by the idea of Saudi Arabia even having an army - are the enlisted ranks all foreign guest workers or something? Where would you find 75,000 Saudi nationals willing and able to do a blue collar job?
posted by strangely stunted trees at 5:53 PM on March 26, 2015 [13 favorites]
I was pretty surprised when I read the 150k number. I looked for a source but the number seemed to come out of thin air.
posted by Nevin at 5:57 PM on March 26, 2015
posted by Nevin at 5:57 PM on March 26, 2015
Maybe it's referring to coalition forces?
posted by Drinky Die at 6:07 PM on March 26, 2015
posted by Drinky Die at 6:07 PM on March 26, 2015
The kingdom subsequently announced that the first air strikes had resulted in the "destruction of all Houthi air defences" at Al-Dailami base next to Sanaa International Airport. It said that four Yemeni military aircraft had also been destroyed, with no losses to Royal Saudi Air Force (RSLF).
The United States announced on the same day that it would provide logistical and intelligence support for the operation.
Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia total over 200,000 active-duty personnel. All prepped and raring to go thanks to the US Military Training Mission to Saudi Arabia.
posted by adamvasco at 6:30 PM on March 26, 2015
The United States announced on the same day that it would provide logistical and intelligence support for the operation.
Armed Forces of Saudi Arabia total over 200,000 active-duty personnel. All prepped and raring to go thanks to the US Military Training Mission to Saudi Arabia.
posted by adamvasco at 6:30 PM on March 26, 2015
Don't forget also that, on top of everything else, Yemen is running out of water.
Maybe this the first active water war, unless you count the one that Nestle has been fighting and winning for the last two decades by buying up water rights, who says water is a human right? Not them.
posted by any major dude at 6:53 PM on March 26, 2015
Maybe this the first active water war, unless you count the one that Nestle has been fighting and winning for the last two decades by buying up water rights, who says water is a human right? Not them.
posted by any major dude at 6:53 PM on March 26, 2015
Why would this be a water war? There seem to be a variety of other causes higher up the list.
posted by Nevin at 6:57 PM on March 26, 2015
posted by Nevin at 6:57 PM on March 26, 2015
I'm not going to say that Nestle is a super beneficial megacorp, any major dude, but that claim that they've said "water isn't a human right" is an urban legend/meme. If you google what Nestle's chairman says, it's essentially the exact opposite. Years ago he said that everyone should have access to at minimum a basic amount of water to bathe, clean, drink, eat, etc. - but that using excessive water for watering golf courses in deserts, running factories, etc. is problematic and should not be held to the same "basic human right" standard as using water to drink.
posted by Solon and Thanks at 6:58 PM on March 26, 2015 [14 favorites]
posted by Solon and Thanks at 6:58 PM on March 26, 2015 [14 favorites]
Wikipedia lists SA's military as having 235,000 troops.
Thanks for the post and everyone who is providing more information and insight. This seems like a pretty serious deal, in a place I know little about.
posted by Tsuga at 6:59 PM on March 26, 2015
Thanks for the post and everyone who is providing more information and insight. This seems like a pretty serious deal, in a place I know little about.
posted by Tsuga at 6:59 PM on March 26, 2015
Oil prices ease as market sees little threat of supply disruptions from Yemen.
posted by clavdivs at 7:08 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 7:08 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
I'm bemused by the idea of Saudi Arabia even having an army
I have very tangentially worked on some programs for their air force, and as far as I can tell it's a mess. They spend a lot of money acquiring fighters, but their support, ISR, and other aircraft are a shambles - like, literally infested with rats. They have a couple planes with Boeing right now for upgrade and they're being forced to cannibalize one plane to supply parts for the other just to make it airworthy. Sandstorms and the blazing sun don't do nice things to equipment.
posted by backseatpilot at 7:11 PM on March 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
I have very tangentially worked on some programs for their air force, and as far as I can tell it's a mess. They spend a lot of money acquiring fighters, but their support, ISR, and other aircraft are a shambles - like, literally infested with rats. They have a couple planes with Boeing right now for upgrade and they're being forced to cannibalize one plane to supply parts for the other just to make it airworthy. Sandstorms and the blazing sun don't do nice things to equipment.
posted by backseatpilot at 7:11 PM on March 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
Only five posts until someone blamed the U.S.
Come on, people! The over/under was seven!
/tears up betting slip
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 7:13 PM on March 26, 2015 [5 favorites]
Come on, people! The over/under was seven!
/tears up betting slip
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 7:13 PM on March 26, 2015 [5 favorites]
The kingdom subsequently announced that the first air strikes had resulted in the "destruction of all Houthi air defences" at Al-Dailami base next to Sanaa International Airport.
wait, they have air defenses?
posted by butterstick at 7:15 PM on March 26, 2015
wait, they have air defenses?
posted by butterstick at 7:15 PM on March 26, 2015
Some reports suggest that this is a warmup for a move against Syria and ISIS. There is also a concern that this could upend the recent progress in US-Iranian relations.
posted by humanfont at 7:19 PM on March 26, 2015
posted by humanfont at 7:19 PM on March 26, 2015
If you google what Nestle's chairman says, it's essentially the exact opposite.
Not surprising. The linked article was from Global Research, which is conspiracy crazyland.
posted by effbot at 7:21 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Not surprising. The linked article was from Global Research, which is conspiracy crazyland.
posted by effbot at 7:21 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Let's please drop the Nestle derail. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 7:53 PM on March 26, 2015 [4 favorites]
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 7:53 PM on March 26, 2015 [4 favorites]
Reading about the Houthis, I do sort of wonder how much of the 'Death to America' ideology is held by higher ups. It seems that the current response was largely against the standing regime, which was certainly backed and associated with America. However, do they want to gain control of the country, or are they truly seeking war with American allied powers? If I was in the same position, then I would use as much Death to America sloganeering as possible to win over fighters who are idealistic, but I wouldn't want to then engage in actual warfare once I had secured my goals within the region...
In many ways, the idea of crushing America seems like a useful recruitment tool for populations who are angry with the U.S. as a geopolitical entity because it gives you a firm and definitive high-end goal in otherwise fractious and contested areas. It's similar to culture war stuff in U.S. politics: rich Republicans who likely personally identify culturally with a lot of cosmopolitan leftist causes, but publically use culture as a wedge that ensures them votes for economic goals (obviously the metaphor breaks down in specifics, but it's a similar idea of espousing extremist ideology that you don't truly hold in order to gain mainstream support among dissatisfied people).
I would imagine that the truth is somewhat a mix between the two, and dependent on who you talk to in the organization.
posted by codacorolla at 7:53 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
In many ways, the idea of crushing America seems like a useful recruitment tool for populations who are angry with the U.S. as a geopolitical entity because it gives you a firm and definitive high-end goal in otherwise fractious and contested areas. It's similar to culture war stuff in U.S. politics: rich Republicans who likely personally identify culturally with a lot of cosmopolitan leftist causes, but publically use culture as a wedge that ensures them votes for economic goals (obviously the metaphor breaks down in specifics, but it's a similar idea of espousing extremist ideology that you don't truly hold in order to gain mainstream support among dissatisfied people).
I would imagine that the truth is somewhat a mix between the two, and dependent on who you talk to in the organization.
posted by codacorolla at 7:53 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
see what you mean. I put my "Death to America" lawn ornaments away after November 4.
posted by clavdivs at 8:08 PM on March 26, 2015 [6 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 8:08 PM on March 26, 2015 [6 favorites]
There won't be any winners.
There are always winners
posted by any major dude at 8:18 PM on March 26, 2015 [6 favorites]
I put my "Death to America" lawn ornaments away after November 4.
Really? I keep my Death to America gnomes out all year.
posted by octobersurprise at 8:32 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Really? I keep my Death to America gnomes out all year.
posted by octobersurprise at 8:32 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
In one of those weird small world things, one of my neighbors growing up was from Yemen, and later I worked with his wife. They were close to Al-Murtadha Bin Zaid Al-Muhatwari, the man commonly called the spiritual head of the Houthis.
I found out that they knew him when he was killed in a bombing a few days ago, and that Informed Dissent article really does a good job debunking some of the reductive weirdness of Western reporting.
posted by klangklangston at 8:34 PM on March 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
I found out that they knew him when he was killed in a bombing a few days ago, and that Informed Dissent article really does a good job debunking some of the reductive weirdness of Western reporting.
posted by klangklangston at 8:34 PM on March 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
This is purely aggressive warfare, not justified by any law or casus belli. It's a blatantly illegal war, and it's Russia of all damned countries that's pointing this out. Oh, the irony.
a well-disciplined and battle hardened army to boot.
If the Saudi army gets within shooting distance of the Houthis they're going to be cut to ribbons. The last battle readiness analysis I saw of their military wasn't hopeful for their ability to conduct operatings away from base. I won't hold my breath waiting for any Saudi subjects to step foot in Yemen. At least, not more than one step.
posted by 1adam12 at 8:40 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
a well-disciplined and battle hardened army to boot.
If the Saudi army gets within shooting distance of the Houthis they're going to be cut to ribbons. The last battle readiness analysis I saw of their military wasn't hopeful for their ability to conduct operatings away from base. I won't hold my breath waiting for any Saudi subjects to step foot in Yemen. At least, not more than one step.
posted by 1adam12 at 8:40 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
wait, they have air defenses?
There were a ton of posts on Twitter where you could watch and hear AA. People also Tweeting in English about the bombing, which is pretty massive and is concentrated in the most densely populated area of Sana'a.
The Saudi regime are fucking bastards.
A number of Egyptian friends are expressing shock and dismay about the Arab coalition. Not to be dramatic, but what we're witnessing (and participating in) at the moment is basically World War III. At the moment it's at lower level of intensity of the world wars of the 20th Century, but this is a long conflict with no end in sight.
posted by Nevin at 9:06 PM on March 26, 2015 [4 favorites]
There were a ton of posts on Twitter where you could watch and hear AA. People also Tweeting in English about the bombing, which is pretty massive and is concentrated in the most densely populated area of Sana'a.
The Saudi regime are fucking bastards.
A number of Egyptian friends are expressing shock and dismay about the Arab coalition. Not to be dramatic, but what we're witnessing (and participating in) at the moment is basically World War III. At the moment it's at lower level of intensity of the world wars of the 20th Century, but this is a long conflict with no end in sight.
posted by Nevin at 9:06 PM on March 26, 2015 [4 favorites]
Reading about the Houthis, I do sort of wonder how much of the 'Death to America' ideology is held by higher ups.
The "damnation to the Jews" bit is quite serious, but the other Yemenites aren't significantly better. Yemen used to have a large and enormously ancient Jewish community that was especially significant for a whole lot of reasons. They were treated like utter crap, though, with all sorts of officially-imposed social and legal disabilities. Most of them were evacuated to Israel in 1949/50, and almost all the rest have since left too. There may be a couple of dozen still in the country; if so, I hope they're OK.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:17 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
The "damnation to the Jews" bit is quite serious, but the other Yemenites aren't significantly better. Yemen used to have a large and enormously ancient Jewish community that was especially significant for a whole lot of reasons. They were treated like utter crap, though, with all sorts of officially-imposed social and legal disabilities. Most of them were evacuated to Israel in 1949/50, and almost all the rest have since left too. There may be a couple of dozen still in the country; if so, I hope they're OK.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:17 PM on March 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
All prepped and raring to go thanks to the US Military Training Mission to Saudi Arabia.
After the Iraqi army's late performance in the field, I'd say the bloom has sort of gone off of the rose when it comes to having American training and equipment necessarily equating to having the slightest military effectiveness.
posted by strangely stunted trees at 9:55 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
After the Iraqi army's late performance in the field, I'd say the bloom has sort of gone off of the rose when it comes to having American training and equipment necessarily equating to having the slightest military effectiveness.
posted by strangely stunted trees at 9:55 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Not to be dramatic, but what we're witnessing (and participating in) at the moment is basically World War III.
No not at all. I think what your thinking is a religious war (in classic terms) being fought globally. Wereas the western powers in general fight wars for resource.
posted by clavdivs at 9:56 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
No not at all. I think what your thinking is a religious war (in classic terms) being fought globally. Wereas the western powers in general fight wars for resource.
posted by clavdivs at 9:56 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
If the Saudi army gets within shooting distance of the Houthis they're going to be cut to ribbons.
My prejudices tell me that you're right, although what do I know. Also, although the popular image of Yemen is that it's basically a flat desert, the truth is far more interesting. If it comes down to guerrilla war, the conflict will never end.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:59 PM on March 26, 2015
My prejudices tell me that you're right, although what do I know. Also, although the popular image of Yemen is that it's basically a flat desert, the truth is far more interesting. If it comes down to guerrilla war, the conflict will never end.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:59 PM on March 26, 2015
Not to be dramatic, but what we're witnessing (and participating in) at the moment is basically World War III.
Ali Khedary says he and the King of Jordan agreed that WWIII had already started a few months ago. Meh, I don't think so.
I'm bemused by the idea of Saudi Arabia even having an army
Saudi Arabia becomes biggest defence equipment importer with $9.8bn set to be spent this year
Where George W. Bush was right - Fareed Zakaria
Ali Khedary says he and the King of Jordan agreed that WWIII had already started a few months ago. Meh, I don't think so.
I'm bemused by the idea of Saudi Arabia even having an army
Saudi Arabia becomes biggest defence equipment importer with $9.8bn set to be spent this year
Where George W. Bush was right - Fareed Zakaria
"(in the Arab world) there were virtually no legitimate channels for political expression in the region. But this did not mean that there was no political activity. There was — in madrassas and radical mosques. It is no wonder that the best-organized political forces were extremist groups. And it was there, in the shadows, that al-Qaeda found the troubled souls to prey on and exploit as its foot soldiers in its millenarian war against the ‘far enemy.’ ” - Condoleezza Riceposted by Golden Eternity at 11:04 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
This is terrifying.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:06 PM on March 26, 2015
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:06 PM on March 26, 2015
Saudi Arabia flexes its military muscles. 2014.
"There have been rumors that Islamabad is willing to provide nuclear warheads for the CSS-2 missiles, which would be a deterrent to Iran, should it ever acquire nuclear weapons of its own."
posted by clavdivs at 11:16 PM on March 26, 2015
"There have been rumors that Islamabad is willing to provide nuclear warheads for the CSS-2 missiles, which would be a deterrent to Iran, should it ever acquire nuclear weapons of its own."
posted by clavdivs at 11:16 PM on March 26, 2015
@Alawlaqi2014: "Breaking: Pro Saleh & Houthi alliance Army units invade & entirely capture Laudar city in Abyan Province South"
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:16 PM on March 26, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:16 PM on March 26, 2015
60% of Yemen is under the age of 25 and most of these are the sons and daughters of orphans. Their version of YOLO is going to be slightly different to what we are used to.
posted by vicx at 11:20 PM on March 26, 2015 [4 favorites]
posted by vicx at 11:20 PM on March 26, 2015 [4 favorites]
@Alawlaqi2014: "Pro- Houthis Military vehicles enter Al-Masura DC in Aden with heavy arms & South #Yemen Pop Com try drive them out."
@DannyNis: "Reports that 2000 Egyptian troops arrived in Aden overnight. #Yemen"
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:25 PM on March 26, 2015
@DannyNis: "Reports that 2000 Egyptian troops arrived in Aden overnight. #Yemen"
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:25 PM on March 26, 2015
@Alawlaqi2014: "Video: South Yemen flag flutters in triumph over Army Tanks defending the South capital city near Aden intl airport" (Warning: graphic)
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:38 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:38 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
@ajaltamimi: "#Syria: Dawn of Freedom Brigades leader on the #Yemen intervention: 'From today, be proud that you are Arab'"
This is one of the good rebel groups, who helped save the Kurds in Kobane from Daesh.
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:50 PM on March 26, 2015
This is one of the good rebel groups, who helped save the Kurds in Kobane from Daesh.
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:50 PM on March 26, 2015
My mostly uninformed understanding of the Saudi military was that the troops were mostly show forces for the princelings to compete for status with (and hopefully not shoot each other with down the line), and than any effectiveness was limited to the air force.
I write this in the hopes of correction by someone less lightly read.
posted by PMdixon at 11:57 PM on March 26, 2015
I write this in the hopes of correction by someone less lightly read.
posted by PMdixon at 11:57 PM on March 26, 2015
Amir Al Hussaini (note: we work for the same organization) has some very good Tweets that focus more on what regular people are experiencing; armchair strategizing / heavy metal fanboy-dom takes a back seat in favor of the human experience of war.
posted by Nevin at 12:18 AM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Nevin at 12:18 AM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
PMdixon: “My mostly uninformed understanding of the Saudi military was that the troops were mostly show forces for the princelings to compete for status with (and hopefully not shoot each other with down the line), and than any effectiveness was limited to the air force. ”I've been scrounging for a good analysis but haven't found anything worth linking yet.
The Saudis do have a helluva lot more artillery and aircraft than the Yemenis.
posted by ob1quixote at 1:00 AM on March 27, 2015
and now, it is becoming the proxy battle ground between Saudi Arabia and Iran
It's worth reading this piece linked to in the last discussion about Yemen, though not in the OP - to see how true and not true that statement is.
Spoiler: Iran's influence in Yemen and commonality with the Shia forces there is generally overstated.
posted by smoke at 4:07 AM on March 27, 2015 [5 favorites]
It's worth reading this piece linked to in the last discussion about Yemen, though not in the OP - to see how true and not true that statement is.
Spoiler: Iran's influence in Yemen and commonality with the Shia forces there is generally overstated.
posted by smoke at 4:07 AM on March 27, 2015 [5 favorites]
It used to be that when one state's military violated the territorial sovereignty of another state, we called it War. The verbal gymnastics I'm seeing to avoid using that term in relation to this incident are something. Apparently we don't declare war on countries anymore, just nouns.
Then again, if there were proper declarations of war, there would be actual rules. Can't have that.
posted by dry white toast at 4:43 AM on March 27, 2015 [4 favorites]
Then again, if there were proper declarations of war, there would be actual rules. Can't have that.
posted by dry white toast at 4:43 AM on March 27, 2015 [4 favorites]
The Saudis were reported to have mobilised 150,000 troops – though that is double most estimates of the size of the Saudi army.
Sardaukar in Harkonnen livery!!!
posted by despues at 5:54 AM on March 27, 2015 [9 favorites]
Sardaukar in Harkonnen livery!!!
posted by despues at 5:54 AM on March 27, 2015 [9 favorites]
@SherineT: "Privately owned Egyptian newspaper - Al Shorouk- front page headline says ground operation in #Yemen to begin within 48 hours"
posted by Golden Eternity at 6:56 AM on March 27, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 6:56 AM on March 27, 2015
Yemen crisis tops Arab League agenda in Sharm El-Sheikh
The Wikipedia article on the Yemeni Revolution (Arab Spring) in 2011-12 provides some interesting background.
posted by Golden Eternity at 7:40 AM on March 27, 2015
The Wikipedia article on the Yemeni Revolution (Arab Spring) in 2011-12 provides some interesting background.
posted by Golden Eternity at 7:40 AM on March 27, 2015
John McCain is on it:
Two senior US Republican senators, John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, endorsed the attacks. But they also used the occasion to criticize what they called a lack of US leadership in the region.
"We understand why our Saudi and other Arab partners felt compelled to take action. The prospect of radical groups like Al-Qaeda, as well as Iranian-backed militants, finding safe haven on the border of Saudi Arabia was more than our Arab partners could withstand," the senators said in a joint statement.
"Their action also stems from their perception of America's disengagement from the region and absence of US leadership," they wrote.
Our Arab partners.
posted by bukvich at 8:03 AM on March 27, 2015
Two senior US Republican senators, John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, endorsed the attacks. But they also used the occasion to criticize what they called a lack of US leadership in the region.
"We understand why our Saudi and other Arab partners felt compelled to take action. The prospect of radical groups like Al-Qaeda, as well as Iranian-backed militants, finding safe haven on the border of Saudi Arabia was more than our Arab partners could withstand," the senators said in a joint statement.
"Their action also stems from their perception of America's disengagement from the region and absence of US leadership," they wrote.
Our Arab partners.
posted by bukvich at 8:03 AM on March 27, 2015
Sardaukar in Harkonnen livery!!!
Called it, seven years ago.
posted by eclectist at 9:01 AM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
Called it, seven years ago.
posted by eclectist at 9:01 AM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
I am glad the real leadership of the US is keeping the US mostly on the sidelines of a regional power adjustment. I take offense at soft, yet hawkish US Senators watching the trainwreck from the safety of thousands of miles, then making complaint they can't by proxy look strong in the region. The region is not ours, we have no friends there. The time is long past in which the US can buy or bully friends. This is a different kind of time, and among the new practices the US must adopt, is respect for the struggles of others. WW2 was our last clear conflict, we have to step back, but there will be no convincing the arms business who will always foment whatever issue that will bring them the outrageous gains they expect from their business activities. McCain and Graham impune our collective mojo, on behalf of the defense industry.
P.S. The mighty Houthi had FOUR planes?
posted by Oyéah at 9:15 AM on March 27, 2015 [7 favorites]
P.S. The mighty Houthi had FOUR planes?
posted by Oyéah at 9:15 AM on March 27, 2015 [7 favorites]
Sardaukar in Harkonnen livery!!!
Called it, seven years ago.
The video I posted above reminded me more of Red Dawn than Dune. A bunch of highschool kids having to pick up AK's to defend their home town from an invading force (of Houthis in Aden's case). Awful.
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:19 AM on March 27, 2015
Called it, seven years ago.
The video I posted above reminded me more of Red Dawn than Dune. A bunch of highschool kids having to pick up AK's to defend their home town from an invading force (of Houthis in Aden's case). Awful.
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:19 AM on March 27, 2015
Ahah. When the Saudis dropped the price of oil, the only reason that would have made sense to me was if they were expecting a sudden need for cash, as dropping prices like that would have driven business to them for at least a short while until the market stabilized. Now we know what it was they needed it for. Running a war, even with an alliance, is expensive.
posted by Blackanvil at 9:22 AM on March 27, 2015 [6 favorites]
posted by Blackanvil at 9:22 AM on March 27, 2015 [6 favorites]
On the brink? Yemen's been in the full throes of a civil war for years now. This is just the escalation of that civil war into a full-blown international conflict.
posted by snottydick at 10:38 AM on March 27, 2015
posted by snottydick at 10:38 AM on March 27, 2015
Well that must be pissing off both China and Russia.
I wonder after the bombing how much of this is still around.
It is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world.
posted by adamvasco at 11:22 AM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
I wonder after the bombing how much of this is still around.
It is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world.
posted by adamvasco at 11:22 AM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
Saudi Arabia: the Gulf's best-equipped army
The Saudi military numbers 227,000 troops, including 75,000 in the army, 13,500 in the navy and 20,000 in the air force.posted by rosswald at 11:56 AM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
Some 16,000 personnel are committed to air defences, 2,500 responsible for strategic missiles and 100,000 man the National Guard, according to the IISS Military Balance, 2015.
The kingdom also has 24,500 paramilitary forces.
[...]
The Saudi army has 600 heavy tanks, 780 light armoured vehicles and 1,423 armoured troop carriers.
Its air force is equipped with 313 fighter jets, including F-15s, Tornados and Eurofighter Typhoons, as well as helicopters.
Considered a priority, air defences and deterrents include 16 batteries of Patriot missiles, 17 batteries of Shahine missiles, 16 of Hawk missiles and 73 Crotale/Shahine missile units.
Yemen Houthi rebels advance despite Saudi-led air strikes
posted by Emor at 12:11 PM on March 27, 2015
posted by Emor at 12:11 PM on March 27, 2015
So lots of discussion about Saudi forces, but how big are the Houthi forces? Wikipedia says 100k, but their source is an article from 2010 that says:
"If we go back in history just five years ago, we will see that Houthis were only 2000 in number. However, after the government imprisoned thousands, air raided over 20,000 homes and killed more than 2300 innocent civilians, Houthi followers gradually increased. Today Houthis number over 100,000 fighters."
So a 50x growth from 2005 to 2010. How much have they grown since?
posted by effbot at 12:53 PM on March 27, 2015
"If we go back in history just five years ago, we will see that Houthis were only 2000 in number. However, after the government imprisoned thousands, air raided over 20,000 homes and killed more than 2300 innocent civilians, Houthi followers gradually increased. Today Houthis number over 100,000 fighters."
So a 50x growth from 2005 to 2010. How much have they grown since?
posted by effbot at 12:53 PM on March 27, 2015
Janes - Saudi-led Arab ground intervention in Yemen will be high risk undertaking, reflecting threat to Saudi vital interests
Neither the Egyptians nor the Saudis are likely to be able to defeat the Houthi and their allies in combat and establish control over the mountainous terrain in which familiarity with the ground will prove a major advantage, of which the Houthi will have. As such, this intervention carries a high risk of becoming open ended, as the Yemeni army has fragmented, and there is no political leadership capable of restoring order to the country without external support. Significant Egyptian or Saudi Arabian casualties in Yemen would be likely to stoke unrest in both countries, while outright failure, involving withdrawal without having removed the Houthi from power in Sanaa, would increase the risk to political stability in both countries. Moreover, minor naval incidents between Iranian and Saudi or Egyptian vessels off the coast of Yemen, including near Bab-al-Mandeb, are increasingly likely, raising the risk of collateral damage to shipping in transit across the straits and disruption to strategic oil cargo routes, which will have an impact on the oil market.posted by rosswald at 2:36 PM on March 27, 2015 [3 favorites]
Iran is likely to retaliate against Saudi intervention by seeking to tie down Saudi troops elsewhere, raising terrorism risks in Bahrain, and potentially in the Eastern Province in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's direct intervention in Yemen will make it easier for Iran to justify increasing the scale of its direct intervention in Iraq and potentially Syria, which in turn risks provoking Turkey.
Aircraft on the ground in Yemen are likely to be at severe risk from airstrikes, with warehouses, power plants, and roads also being at much higher risk. There is a high risk of the Houthis seeking to pre-empt the Saudis by attempting to seize Marib and the energy fields there. There is also a high risk of incursions by the Houthi into Saudi territory in Jizan Province.
Photos To Remind You How Beautiful Yemen Is
My God, these pictures are amazing.
posted by Golden Eternity at 3:30 PM on March 27, 2015 [4 favorites]
My God, these pictures are amazing.
posted by Golden Eternity at 3:30 PM on March 27, 2015 [4 favorites]
All those mountains. Beautiful, and very dangerous to invade.
posted by Drinky Die at 3:41 PM on March 27, 2015
posted by Drinky Die at 3:41 PM on March 27, 2015
The video I posted above reminded me more of Red Dawn than Dune. A bunch of highschool kids having to pick up AK's to defend their home town from an invading force (of Houthis in Aden's case). Awful.
The really awful thing is the opposite: Those kids might be having the time of their lives.
"What people can't understand," Hiers said, "is how much fun Vietnam was. I loved it. I loved it, and I can't tell anybody."
...
War is ugly, horrible, evil, and it is reasonable for men to hate all that. But I believe that most men who have been to war would have to admit, if they are honest, that somewhere inside themselves they loved it, too, loved it as much as anything that has happened to them before or since. And how do you explain that to your wife, your children, your parents, or your friends?
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 3:43 PM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
The really awful thing is the opposite: Those kids might be having the time of their lives.
"What people can't understand," Hiers said, "is how much fun Vietnam was. I loved it. I loved it, and I can't tell anybody."
...
War is ugly, horrible, evil, and it is reasonable for men to hate all that. But I believe that most men who have been to war would have to admit, if they are honest, that somewhere inside themselves they loved it, too, loved it as much as anything that has happened to them before or since. And how do you explain that to your wife, your children, your parents, or your friends?
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 3:43 PM on March 27, 2015 [2 favorites]
It probably depends on the situation. I doubt they were having too much fun in Stalingrad or Gallipoli or the Somme. Or in a lot of the fighting in Ukraine for that matter. Sit around for three months, then watch your friends get blown into pieces by Grad missiles during a "ceasefire." The first few months of Operation Barbarossa were like a summer camping trip for the Germans and Italians, but it wasn't as fun in winter time.
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:06 PM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:06 PM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
Richard EngelVerified account
@RichardEngel
US Mil says its rescued two Saudi pilots today when they ejected over the Gulf of Aden during combat operations against rebels in Yemen.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:36 PM on March 27, 2015
@RichardEngel
US Mil says its rescued two Saudi pilots today when they ejected over the Gulf of Aden during combat operations against rebels in Yemen.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:36 PM on March 27, 2015
"What people can't understand," Hiers said, "is how much fun Vietnam was. I loved it. I loved it, and I can't tell anybody."
It's sorrowful that a very small minority of people make life a living hell for the rest of us that want to get on with our lives in peace.
posted by Nevin at 6:05 PM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
It's sorrowful that a very small minority of people make life a living hell for the rest of us that want to get on with our lives in peace.
posted by Nevin at 6:05 PM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
US Mil says its rescued two Saudi pilots today when they ejected over the Gulf of Aden during combat operations against rebels in Yemen.
If true I wonder how the planes were brought down.
posted by rosswald at 6:56 PM on March 27, 2015
If true I wonder how the planes were brought down.
posted by rosswald at 6:56 PM on March 27, 2015
The Saudi jet apparently suffered some mechanical problem forcing the pilots to eject. A U.S. Air Force Pave Hawk special operations helicopter and crew were dispatched from Djibouti to rescue the Saudi pilots.
posted by Drinky Die at 7:11 PM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Drinky Die at 7:11 PM on March 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
From Fareed Zakaria's article linked above:This is the pattern that has produced terrorism in the Arab world. Repressive, secular regimes — backed by the West — become illegitimate. Over time they become more repressive to survive and the opposition becomes more extreme and violent.
Oh, twaddle. What about Iran? The present regime has been in power for more than a quarter of a century; it is both religious and oppressive; and it's not especially backed by the West. It is the sponsor of terrorism, not (to any comparable extent) its weak and divided opposition.
And what about Jordan? Relatively secular, very much backed by the West, its opposition is relatively weak, and not known for its support of terrorism.
Or Hamas? Fundamentalist terrorists, they've been in control of the Gaza Strip for over a decade, and have hardly any opposition.
Lebanon? Nominally multi-culti, the weakish government didn't become dramatically more oppressive; none the less, South Lebanon was taken over by Hezbollah, which is both represssive and a sponsor of terrorism.
Libya? Secular, not strongly supported by the West, fell apart because Ghaddhafighhhh was a loon . Iraq? Secular, in chaos because of a bit of an invasion. The Gulf states? Religious monarchies, treated as friends by the West, mostly not in chaos, not known for a terrorist opposition.
Zakaria's theory applies to Syria and ... that's it. Maybe Egypt, but the terror there is mostly localised; it seems to be due to regional factors, not increased oppression.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:08 AM on March 28, 2015 [2 favorites]
Oh, twaddle. What about Iran? The present regime has been in power for more than a quarter of a century; it is both religious and oppressive; and it's not especially backed by the West. It is the sponsor of terrorism, not (to any comparable extent) its weak and divided opposition.
And what about Jordan? Relatively secular, very much backed by the West, its opposition is relatively weak, and not known for its support of terrorism.
Or Hamas? Fundamentalist terrorists, they've been in control of the Gaza Strip for over a decade, and have hardly any opposition.
Lebanon? Nominally multi-culti, the weakish government didn't become dramatically more oppressive; none the less, South Lebanon was taken over by Hezbollah, which is both represssive and a sponsor of terrorism.
Libya? Secular, not strongly supported by the West, fell apart because Ghaddhafighhhh was a loon . Iraq? Secular, in chaos because of a bit of an invasion. The Gulf states? Religious monarchies, treated as friends by the West, mostly not in chaos, not known for a terrorist opposition.
Zakaria's theory applies to Syria and ... that's it. Maybe Egypt, but the terror there is mostly localised; it seems to be due to regional factors, not increased oppression.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:08 AM on March 28, 2015 [2 favorites]
Everything helps, I guess: Palestinian Authority announces support for Arab coalition against Yemen rebels
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:25 AM on March 28, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:25 AM on March 28, 2015
The limits of the ‘sectarian’ framing in Yemen
The War on Yemen: how to read it
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:32 AM on March 28, 2015
The War on Yemen: how to read it
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:32 AM on March 28, 2015
@yemen_updates: "Southern popular committees reclaimed #Aden Airport after it was controlled by Saleh forces & Houthi fighters. #Yemen"
posted by Golden Eternity at 3:00 PM on March 28, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 3:00 PM on March 28, 2015
"Oh, twaddle. What about Iran? The present regime has been in power for more than a quarter of a century; it is both religious and oppressive; and it's not especially backed by the West. It is the sponsor of terrorism, not (to any comparable extent) its weak and divided opposition.'
Uh… there was this guy called the Shah and he was kinda backed by the West and nominally secular and became more and more oppressive, then there was this theocratic revolution that coincided with the beginning of Iranian state-sponsored terrorism.
"And what about Jordan? Relatively secular, very much backed by the West, its opposition is relatively weak, and not known for its support of terrorism."
Jordan is only relatively secular and only relatively backed by the West. But a sizable portion of its family law is explicitly conducted through religious courts.
"Or Hamas? Fundamentalist terrorists, they've been in control of the Gaza Strip for over a decade, and have hardly any opposition."
??? Hamas has two huge opposition groups: Fatah, who are nominally secular and backed by the West, against whom they fought a civil war, and, you know, Israel, whom ignoring when talking about Palestinian politics is beyond daft. I think it's fair to say that Israel is backed by the West, though the extent to which it's a secular state is up for debate.
"Lebanon? Nominally multi-culti, the weakish government didn't become dramatically more oppressive; none the less, South Lebanon was taken over by Hezbollah, which is both represssive and a sponsor of terrorism."
o_0 I know you know more about the history of Middle East politics than you're letting on, but the Lebanese Civil War can be traced pretty much directly to the expulsion of Palestinians by Israel, and South Lebanon was a Syrian client state until pretty recently, with the explicit aid of Iran.
"Libya? Secular, not strongly supported by the West, fell apart because Ghaddhafighhhh was a loon . Iraq? Secular, in chaos because of a bit of an invasion. The Gulf states? Religious monarchies, treated as friends by the West, mostly not in chaos, not known for a terrorist opposition."
Libya had a previous regime that was both repressive and strongly supported by the west. Though granted the Gaddafi regime is outside of the general pattern — it was a relatively bloodless coup, more the result of income disparity than Islamic fervor — but the post-Gaffafi Libyan experience has seen a Western-supported government fall into civil war with Muslim extremists. The Gulf States are Western-supported repressive dictatorships who do have a large fundamentalist religious opposition that they then basically bribe to use terrorism in other places (Wahhabist al Qaida, basically).
So while Zakaria's gloss is a simplified one, it's largely correct and the objections to it seem bizarre.
posted by klangklangston at 3:08 PM on March 28, 2015 [7 favorites]
Uh… there was this guy called the Shah and he was kinda backed by the West and nominally secular and became more and more oppressive, then there was this theocratic revolution that coincided with the beginning of Iranian state-sponsored terrorism.
"And what about Jordan? Relatively secular, very much backed by the West, its opposition is relatively weak, and not known for its support of terrorism."
Jordan is only relatively secular and only relatively backed by the West. But a sizable portion of its family law is explicitly conducted through religious courts.
"Or Hamas? Fundamentalist terrorists, they've been in control of the Gaza Strip for over a decade, and have hardly any opposition."
??? Hamas has two huge opposition groups: Fatah, who are nominally secular and backed by the West, against whom they fought a civil war, and, you know, Israel, whom ignoring when talking about Palestinian politics is beyond daft. I think it's fair to say that Israel is backed by the West, though the extent to which it's a secular state is up for debate.
"Lebanon? Nominally multi-culti, the weakish government didn't become dramatically more oppressive; none the less, South Lebanon was taken over by Hezbollah, which is both represssive and a sponsor of terrorism."
o_0 I know you know more about the history of Middle East politics than you're letting on, but the Lebanese Civil War can be traced pretty much directly to the expulsion of Palestinians by Israel, and South Lebanon was a Syrian client state until pretty recently, with the explicit aid of Iran.
"Libya? Secular, not strongly supported by the West, fell apart because Ghaddhafighhhh was a loon . Iraq? Secular, in chaos because of a bit of an invasion. The Gulf states? Religious monarchies, treated as friends by the West, mostly not in chaos, not known for a terrorist opposition."
Libya had a previous regime that was both repressive and strongly supported by the west. Though granted the Gaddafi regime is outside of the general pattern — it was a relatively bloodless coup, more the result of income disparity than Islamic fervor — but the post-Gaffafi Libyan experience has seen a Western-supported government fall into civil war with Muslim extremists. The Gulf States are Western-supported repressive dictatorships who do have a large fundamentalist religious opposition that they then basically bribe to use terrorism in other places (Wahhabist al Qaida, basically).
So while Zakaria's gloss is a simplified one, it's largely correct and the objections to it seem bizarre.
posted by klangklangston at 3:08 PM on March 28, 2015 [7 favorites]
For a local take on what's happening in Yemen, journalist Hafez Albukari is worth following.
Warning: not too much halfbaked armchair / Student Union Building pub discussions about the geopolitics, though, if that's more of the sort of thing that interests you.
posted by Nevin at 6:23 PM on March 28, 2015
Warning: not too much halfbaked armchair / Student Union Building pub discussions about the geopolitics, though, if that's more of the sort of thing that interests you.
posted by Nevin at 6:23 PM on March 28, 2015
Richard Engel: Military Officials Say Allies No Longer Trust Us, Fear Intel Might Leak to Iran
This probably explains the hurried evacuation of US forces on civilian flights.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:20 PM on March 28, 2015
This probably explains the hurried evacuation of US forces on civilian flights.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:20 PM on March 28, 2015
Yemen at War: Lifesaving aid blocked by airstrikes
Yemen, which has a population of just under 26 million, is the Arab world’s poorest country. Almost two-thirds of the population was already in need of aid before the crisis, while over 10 million are food insecure.posted by Golden Eternity at 10:29 PM on March 28, 2015 [1 favorite]
Or Hamas? Fundamentalist terrorists, they've been in control of the Gaza Strip for over a decade, and have hardly any opposition.
Fun fact: the Israelis supported Hamas in its earliest days, the days when its main role was a social services organization... education, healthcare, etc. So why did the Israelis do that? Because they saw Hamas as an organizational (and political) counterweight to the secular, nationalist, semi-socialist Fatah. And it worked. Sort of.
posted by Mister Bijou at 4:38 AM on March 29, 2015
Fun fact: the Israelis supported Hamas in its earliest days, the days when its main role was a social services organization... education, healthcare, etc. So why did the Israelis do that? Because they saw Hamas as an organizational (and political) counterweight to the secular, nationalist, semi-socialist Fatah. And it worked. Sort of.
posted by Mister Bijou at 4:38 AM on March 29, 2015
Yes, I've heard that too. I don't think they were at all concerned about the socialist bit, though: it was the fact that Fatah were (are) a bunch of unrepentant murderers. And I suppose they may have thought that internal opposition would eventually throw up someone they could talk to. Instead, Hamas has Gaza; Fatah has the West Bank; everybody (including the Palestinians) has the worst of both worlds.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:42 AM on March 29, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:42 AM on March 29, 2015
Fatah is socialist like many so-called socialist parties today are socialist: more in word than in deed. There certainly are more left-wing Palestinian parties, anyways (PFLP, DFLP, etc.).
As much as I like talking about Palestine, it seems like this discussion is turning into a derail of a thread about Yemen.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 7:22 AM on March 29, 2015
As much as I like talking about Palestine, it seems like this discussion is turning into a derail of a thread about Yemen.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 7:22 AM on March 29, 2015
The War Nerd: A Brief History Of The Yemen Clusterf*ck
Who Has A Stake In Yemen Fight?
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 8:07 AM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
Who Has A Stake In Yemen Fight?
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 8:07 AM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
"What they won't admit at the Arab Summit"... Marwan Bishara, senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:09 AM on March 29, 2015
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:09 AM on March 29, 2015
How Yemen's US-backed ex-dictator is tearing his country apart
...one of the first things Mr Saleh did when his three-decade rule was threatened by the 2011 Arab Spring was strike a secret deal to give an entire southern province to al-Qaeda. The more he could portray Yemen as falling into militant hands, he calculated, the more the West want to keep him in office at all costs.posted by Golden Eternity at 8:37 AM on March 29, 2015
On this occasion, his unholy alliance failed in its goal: by the following year, his Western backers had quietly forced him out in return for immunity from prosecution. But last week, the man with a record of doing deals with anyone who will keep him in power was once again proving that his cunning should never be underestimated.
Juan Cole What's really behind the Saudi attack on Yemen.
posted by adamvasco at 9:14 AM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by adamvasco at 9:14 AM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
@KhaledHammadi: "To cover news in #Yemen nowadays is a a kind of Occultism as there is real absence for credible sources & spox from all sides. #Sanaa #Aden"
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:27 PM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:27 PM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
Saudi Arabia accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of hypocrisy on Sunday, telling an Arab summit that he should not express support for the Middle East while fuelling instability by supporting Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
posted by rosswald at 3:11 PM on March 29, 2015
posted by rosswald at 3:11 PM on March 29, 2015
Oh, those two would probably be perennial winners of the hypocrisy Olympics if that was a thing. (Okay, USA would be in the mix too.)
posted by Drinky Die at 4:47 PM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Drinky Die at 4:47 PM on March 29, 2015 [1 favorite]
the Lebanese Civil War can be traced pretty much directly to the expulsion of Palestinians by Israel
Indirectly, yes, but more directly to the PLO's war with the royal family of Jordan, which led the Jordanians to expel them to Lebanon. The arrival of the military wing of the PLO in Southern Lebanon was what upset the already fragile sectarian compromise, not the arrival of Palestinian refugees 20 years earlier.
posted by snottydick at 9:20 AM on March 30, 2015 [2 favorites]
Indirectly, yes, but more directly to the PLO's war with the royal family of Jordan, which led the Jordanians to expel them to Lebanon. The arrival of the military wing of the PLO in Southern Lebanon was what upset the already fragile sectarian compromise, not the arrival of Palestinian refugees 20 years earlier.
posted by snottydick at 9:20 AM on March 30, 2015 [2 favorites]
This is excellent: A revolution within the revolution: the Houthi movement and the new political dynamics in Yemen
@amelscript: "There are 8 families we know of in Sanaa begging to be evacuated but @StateDept refuses. In Aden, it's 3 fams, several individuals. #Yemen"
Desperate Yemeni-Americans who find themselves stranded in Yemen due to a no-fly zone and hijacked main roads say they have begun to consider alternate means of escape, including smuggling themselves to East Africa by sea or driving through dangerous back roads that lead to neighboring Oman.
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:25 PM on March 30, 2015
@amelscript: "There are 8 families we know of in Sanaa begging to be evacuated but @StateDept refuses. In Aden, it's 3 fams, several individuals. #Yemen"
Desperate Yemeni-Americans who find themselves stranded in Yemen due to a no-fly zone and hijacked main roads say they have begun to consider alternate means of escape, including smuggling themselves to East Africa by sea or driving through dangerous back roads that lead to neighboring Oman.
posted by Golden Eternity at 12:25 PM on March 30, 2015
Speaking of Saudi arms deals: From scrapped arms deals to pleas for democracy: why Sweden is the only Western country standing up to Saudi Arabia
posted by homunculus at 1:14 AM on March 31, 2015
posted by homunculus at 1:14 AM on March 31, 2015
The Elder of Ziyon blog reports that the lobby group Human Rights Watch has been surprisingly muted in its criticism of the attack on Yemen. HRW has been criticised for sucking up to Saudi Arabia in the past:
HRW deferential towards Saudi airstrikes that kill civilians
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:13 AM on March 31, 2015 [1 favorite]
HRW deferential towards Saudi airstrikes that kill civilians
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:13 AM on March 31, 2015 [1 favorite]
From scrapped arms deals to pleas for democracy: why Sweden is the only Western country standing up to Saudi Arabia
I think we can all be pleased that Saudi Arabia has cleaned up its act: Saudi Arabia restores ambassador to Sweden following diplomatic dispute
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:23 PM on March 31, 2015
I think we can all be pleased that Saudi Arabia has cleaned up its act: Saudi Arabia restores ambassador to Sweden following diplomatic dispute
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:23 PM on March 31, 2015
Aid for Yemen Dwindles as Need Rises Amid Chaos
Yemen: The Houthi Enigma
The War Nerd: To lighten the mood, here’s the cheery tale of Dammaj
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 8:03 AM on April 1, 2015
Yemen: The Houthi Enigma
The War Nerd: To lighten the mood, here’s the cheery tale of Dammaj
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 8:03 AM on April 1, 2015
Houthi tanks advance into central Aden district: witnesses
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:45 AM on April 1, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:45 AM on April 1, 2015
Apparently the Popular Comittees of Abyan have sent forces to Aden to try to help defend Adenis from the Houthi invasion.
The PCs are an indigenous movement whose mandate and function are rooted in and inspired by the tribal tradition of collective responsibility in which local men volunteer to maintain security in their communities. While their members include tribesmen, the PCs do not represent any particular tribes. They are hybrid ad hoc entities that rose up in response to the deteriorating security situation. They find the term “militias” that the media uses to describe them offensive and derogatory, and one that does not fit with the positive things that they have been doing for their communities. Members of the PCs come from mixed backgrounds, including tribal and non-tribal affiliations. Some of them hold high school and university degrees while others have limited education. What united them was outrage at the destruction that AAS (Ansar al-Shariah) wrought in Abyan and a desire to provide security and service to their communities.posted by Golden Eternity at 4:38 PM on April 1, 2015
From a walled compound in Sana’a, one of Yemen’s last Jews confides his fears
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:06 PM on April 1, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:06 PM on April 1, 2015
First Sweden, now the US. Arms sales are hot!
Obama Removes Weapons Freeze Against Egypt
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:18 PM on April 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Obama Removes Weapons Freeze Against Egypt
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:18 PM on April 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
First Sweden, now the US. Arms sales are hot!
I think you might have misread the articles about the Sweden-Saudi brouhaha somewhat. The full story is long and somewhat boring, but let's see if I can squeeze a brief summary into this comment box:
So let's start by rolling back to 2005, when an earlier government signed a "Memorandum of Understanding concerning Military Cooperation" (PDF link, english text starts on page 2) because why restrict yourself to just selling weapons to a dictatorship when you can build secret weapons factories in the desert. I mean, they have buttloads of cash and nobody was supposed to know about it anyway.
The agreement was up for renewal this year, but parties both to the left and right of center have been very much against that, citing the general horribleness of the country wrt. simple things like basic democracy, treatment of women (and pretty much everyone else who's not a Saudi prince), freedom of speech, etc. And on a direct question from a journalist, the foreign minister for the newly elected government basically stated that "yeah, it's fucking backwards dictatorship" (well, she's from a tiny village in northern sweden so a bit more politely phrased).
So of course commercial interests got a bit nervous, and industrial heavyweight Jacob Wallenberg and some 30 of his peers wrote an open letter to the government about what a horrible disaster it would be for everyone if Sweden would just keep selling weapons to dictatorships but not collaborate on weapons production, and if you think the king isn't nice you should see his opponents, etc. Which annoyed politicians all across the political scale, and caused brief headaches for some corporate PR departments.
After which the Saudis, well aware of the domestic Swedish debate, got the Arab League to cancel an invitation to the Swedish foreign minister. After which Sweden announced that they wouldn't renew the agreement. After which the Saudis went ballistic and withdrew their ambassador and stopped issuing visas, and declared that if you're not a close friend and collaborator with Saudi Arabia, you clearly hate Islam. After which the industry folks went all "see, we told you".
After which Sweden sent a distant relative of Max von Sydow to Saudi Arabia with a letter from the Swedish king. After which the Saudis declared that the Swedish foreign minister has apologized and taken back everything she's said. After which the foreign minister said that she hadn't apologized for anything, beyond stating that nothing she had said was in any way an attack on Islam as a religion. After which the Ministry for Foreign Affairs misplaced the letter. After which the Saudis attacked Yemen. And there's roughly where we are today, I think.
posted by effbot at 6:25 AM on April 2, 2015 [6 favorites]
I think you might have misread the articles about the Sweden-Saudi brouhaha somewhat. The full story is long and somewhat boring, but let's see if I can squeeze a brief summary into this comment box:
So let's start by rolling back to 2005, when an earlier government signed a "Memorandum of Understanding concerning Military Cooperation" (PDF link, english text starts on page 2) because why restrict yourself to just selling weapons to a dictatorship when you can build secret weapons factories in the desert. I mean, they have buttloads of cash and nobody was supposed to know about it anyway.
The agreement was up for renewal this year, but parties both to the left and right of center have been very much against that, citing the general horribleness of the country wrt. simple things like basic democracy, treatment of women (and pretty much everyone else who's not a Saudi prince), freedom of speech, etc. And on a direct question from a journalist, the foreign minister for the newly elected government basically stated that "yeah, it's fucking backwards dictatorship" (well, she's from a tiny village in northern sweden so a bit more politely phrased).
So of course commercial interests got a bit nervous, and industrial heavyweight Jacob Wallenberg and some 30 of his peers wrote an open letter to the government about what a horrible disaster it would be for everyone if Sweden would just keep selling weapons to dictatorships but not collaborate on weapons production, and if you think the king isn't nice you should see his opponents, etc. Which annoyed politicians all across the political scale, and caused brief headaches for some corporate PR departments.
After which the Saudis, well aware of the domestic Swedish debate, got the Arab League to cancel an invitation to the Swedish foreign minister. After which Sweden announced that they wouldn't renew the agreement. After which the Saudis went ballistic and withdrew their ambassador and stopped issuing visas, and declared that if you're not a close friend and collaborator with Saudi Arabia, you clearly hate Islam. After which the industry folks went all "see, we told you".
After which Sweden sent a distant relative of Max von Sydow to Saudi Arabia with a letter from the Swedish king. After which the Saudis declared that the Swedish foreign minister has apologized and taken back everything she's said. After which the foreign minister said that she hadn't apologized for anything, beyond stating that nothing she had said was in any way an attack on Islam as a religion. After which the Ministry for Foreign Affairs misplaced the letter. After which the Saudis attacked Yemen. And there's roughly where we are today, I think.
posted by effbot at 6:25 AM on April 2, 2015 [6 favorites]
And I wrote all that and forgot to mention that Sweden is still selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, for in the order of around 500 million dollars over the last five years, if I'm reading things correctly. The current dispute was about the collaboration agreement, not weapons sales in general...
(In fact, Sweden is one of the world's biggest weapons exporters per capita, and increasingly to non-democratic countries. Most of the red in that graph is the Saudis.)
posted by effbot at 7:22 AM on April 2, 2015
(In fact, Sweden is one of the world's biggest weapons exporters per capita, and increasingly to non-democratic countries. Most of the red in that graph is the Saudis.)
posted by effbot at 7:22 AM on April 2, 2015
Al-Qaeda Commander Freed In Yemen Prison Break
Obama's love of the "Yemen model" sums up his disastrously shortsighted foreign policy
Yemen Rebels Take Aden’s Center as Coalition Raids Intensify
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 7:31 AM on April 2, 2015 [2 favorites]
Obama's love of the "Yemen model" sums up his disastrously shortsighted foreign policy
Yemen Rebels Take Aden’s Center as Coalition Raids Intensify
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 7:31 AM on April 2, 2015 [2 favorites]
"And I wrote all that and forgot to mention that Sweden is still selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, for in the order of around 500 million dollars over the last five years, if I'm reading things correctly. The current dispute was about the collaboration agreement, not weapons sales in general..."
Yeah, but they sell 'em unassembled in flat packs and the little pegs never fit exactly right.
posted by klangklangston at 10:32 AM on April 2, 2015
Yeah, but they sell 'em unassembled in flat packs and the little pegs never fit exactly right.
posted by klangklangston at 10:32 AM on April 2, 2015
Yeah, but they sell 'em unassembled in flat packs and the little pegs never fit exactly right.
Oh, I guess that explains the section about establishing "mutual projects to assemble military products in the other party’s country" in the MoU.
posted by effbot at 11:33 AM on April 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
Oh, I guess that explains the section about establishing "mutual projects to assemble military products in the other party’s country" in the MoU.
posted by effbot at 11:33 AM on April 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
Noisy Pink Bubbles' link Yemen Rebels Take Aden’s Center as Coalition Raids Intensify has really buried the lede. Look at the map included with the article. Near the bottom left there's a small dot marked "Houthis place missiles and long-range cannon on Perim Island".
Perim Island is a smallish volcanic island at the mouth of the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandab. Whoever controls it pretty well controls entry to the Red Sea and hence the Suez Canal. It's tremendously strategically important, although it's hard to see how possession of it can give the Houthis any domestic strategic advantage. In other words, they presumably plan to threaten international shipping. Or Iran does; they're both bad, in somewhat different ways.
You can read more about this here: Yemeni Rebels Strengthen Positions in Strait, Djibouti Says
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:17 PM on April 2, 2015
Perim Island is a smallish volcanic island at the mouth of the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandab. Whoever controls it pretty well controls entry to the Red Sea and hence the Suez Canal. It's tremendously strategically important, although it's hard to see how possession of it can give the Houthis any domestic strategic advantage. In other words, they presumably plan to threaten international shipping. Or Iran does; they're both bad, in somewhat different ways.
You can read more about this here: Yemeni Rebels Strengthen Positions in Strait, Djibouti Says
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:17 PM on April 2, 2015
Yemen’s Houthis Seek strategic and political allies with Djibouti, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan and Eritrea.
Eritrea denial of Iranian involvement.
Wildstarlife offers a good concise history of Yemen
posted by adamvasco at 7:05 PM on April 2, 2015 [2 favorites]
Eritrea denial of Iranian involvement.
Wildstarlife offers a good concise history of Yemen
posted by adamvasco at 7:05 PM on April 2, 2015 [2 favorites]
Great links, Adamvasco.
I think it's hilarious that the USA has this multi-billion dollar agency tasked with surveillance, taps on undersea cables, everything you could imagine; and it still didn't know that Yemen was about to blow up. Just as it didn't know that the USSR was going to implode or that Syria would collapse or that G'ad'hafhi would get chased out of power, or whatever.
And now we have all this maneuvering by countries that are barely on my horizon ("Djibouti? Isn't that the capital of ... no, wait ...") and we know fsck-all about what's going on, because why should we? Those countries aren't important in any way ... unless the Red Sea becomes impassable to freight, or Egypt needs to pull out of the Sinai Peninsula , or Saudi Arabia loses control of its western coast, or ...
So it turns out that we were just nodding along wisely while the USA was boasting about its tremendous success killing "militants" in Yemen. Those assassinations were literally irrelevant. The real story is a regional struggle for political influence and territorial control, not some goatherds with missiles. And it might be a poor region, perhaps even an impoverished one, but I guess Serbia was just a backwater in 1914; who would have thought that an assassination there would start a World War?
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:29 PM on April 2, 2015
I think it's hilarious that the USA has this multi-billion dollar agency tasked with surveillance, taps on undersea cables, everything you could imagine; and it still didn't know that Yemen was about to blow up. Just as it didn't know that the USSR was going to implode or that Syria would collapse or that G'ad'hafhi would get chased out of power, or whatever.
And now we have all this maneuvering by countries that are barely on my horizon ("Djibouti? Isn't that the capital of ... no, wait ...") and we know fsck-all about what's going on, because why should we? Those countries aren't important in any way ... unless the Red Sea becomes impassable to freight, or Egypt needs to pull out of the Sinai Peninsula , or Saudi Arabia loses control of its western coast, or ...
So it turns out that we were just nodding along wisely while the USA was boasting about its tremendous success killing "militants" in Yemen. Those assassinations were literally irrelevant. The real story is a regional struggle for political influence and territorial control, not some goatherds with missiles. And it might be a poor region, perhaps even an impoverished one, but I guess Serbia was just a backwater in 1914; who would have thought that an assassination there would start a World War?
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:29 PM on April 2, 2015
It's baffling to me that the KSA and Egypt didn't send in troops to secure key installations and defend Aden while they are doing all of this bombing. They don't seem to have a real strategy. Maybe they thought the bombs would scare the Houthis back to the negotiating table? Or are just trying to destroy their military capabilities and "mow the lawn" as Israel likes to call it? From what I can tell, I'm rooting for the popular committees and South Yemen resistance, but sadly they seem to be very much on their own. Once again the groups most deserving of Western liberal support have no support.
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:43 PM on April 2, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 11:43 PM on April 2, 2015
And now we have all this maneuvering by countries that are barely on my horizon ("Djibouti? Isn't that the capital of ... no, wait ...")
I especially liked how Bloomberg's graphic designer considered it irrelevant enough that they smacked a label over most of the country on their map, despite it being mentioned in both the headline and the text . I had to look it up elsewhere to make sure I remembered correctly.
posted by effbot at 2:48 AM on April 3, 2015
I especially liked how Bloomberg's graphic designer considered it irrelevant enough that they smacked a label over most of the country on their map, despite it being mentioned in both the headline and the text . I had to look it up elsewhere to make sure I remembered correctly.
posted by effbot at 2:48 AM on April 3, 2015
And there's roughly where we are today, I think.
"Pygmy marmosets caught up in dispute between Sweden and Saudi Arabia. Private zoo in Stockholm forced to cancel plans to send two pairs of world’s smallest monkey to Riyadh after Saudi official vetoed arrangement."
posted by effbot at 6:07 PM on April 8, 2015
"Pygmy marmosets caught up in dispute between Sweden and Saudi Arabia. Private zoo in Stockholm forced to cancel plans to send two pairs of world’s smallest monkey to Riyadh after Saudi official vetoed arrangement."
posted by effbot at 6:07 PM on April 8, 2015
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posted by Dip Flash at 4:02 PM on March 26, 2015 [1 favorite]