An election about nothing...or maybe about everything
May 3, 2015 12:36 PM   Subscribe

"In four short weeks, the sure-thing election about nothing has turned into an election about everything; a historic campaign that could spell the end of the 44-year Progressive Conservative political dynasty, or see them snatch another stunning victory from the jaws of defeat." Alberta goes to the polls May 5 in their 29th general election. It has turned out to be a far more interesting campaign than many thought at the outset.

Since the 2012 election when the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) snatched their 12th consecutive victory from the jaws of defeat in a surprise win things have not been rosy for the long-ruling Progressive Conservative Party (platform) (aka the PCs, the Tories). (The 2012 Alberta election on Metafilter)

PC Premier Allison Redford resigned in March of 2014 while questions about spending and entitlement swirled. Former federal Member of Parliament Jim Prentice was elected leader of the PCs in September of 2014.
A few months afterwards, 9 MLAs of the Wildrose party – the official opposition - crossed the floor to join with the PCs. (Metafilter discussion of the Wildrose defections; bonus article How to Prune a Wildrose)

With the price of oil sinking, the ruling PCs conducted a public consultation (pdf) on the budget. After tabling their budget (2) on March 26, 2015 a snap election was called for April 7, 2015. The question seemed to be if the PCs would win just another majority or a super-majority. But…

Even before the election, Prentice had offended many with his “look in the mirror” comment when asked who was to blame for the financial issues facing the province. And the opposition that was supposed to have been in disarray has been anything but and the ruling Tories have faced strong opponents to both their right (a resurgent Wildrose) and their left (the New Democratic Party), as well as scandals inside their own ranks.

Could Jim Prentice Actually Lose?

The Debate - (Was it the best ever?) spawned a Math is Hard backlash

Buddy, You are Being Set Up – Disqualified PC candidate releases texts with party brass

Premier defends candidate convicted of soliciting prostitute

Justice minister resigns amidst legal proceedings occurring behind closed doors

Tory linked Businessmen attack NDP policies (which inspired the 5CEOs twitter parody account)

Now, in the waning days of the campaign, the major local dailies and the national paper of record have released their endorsements:
Calgary Herald
Edmonton Journal
Calgary Sun/Edmonton Sun
Globe & Mail

All of which favour the ruling PCs. The Edmonton Journal endorsement prompted this twitter essay (We are not electing a CEO) from one of their columnists.

The polls currently show an NDP lead, but support is regionalized across the province between the three major parties (PCs, Wildrose, NDP). Can the polls be trusted and what does it all mean? Some analysis:

Political Scientist Analyzes Election

Jim Prentice Undone When Trust Became Key Factor

Prentice can still win the war

Three Hundred Eight

Platforms of the other parties:

Liberal Party of Alberta
Alberta Party

Green Party of Alberta
Social Credit
posted by nubs (219 comments total) 21 users marked this as a favorite
 
I dunno, after the BC election (and other elections) I will never trust what the pollsters are saying ever again. I think the worst-case scenario (for Prentice) is a minority government. Still, if the NDP have the ability to increase their number of seats, let alone win a minority themselves, that would be a real victory for them in Alberta.

I still think the pollsters have lost the ability to provide accurate information, and the newspapers love whatever horseshit the pollsters come up with because it provides a great horse race narrative that generates clicks.

Ultimately, an NDP government in Alberta, combined with a Liberal government in Ontario will mean voters will be more inclined to vote Harper Conservative in the next federal election to act as a counterweight.

And one would wonder why the NDP would want to govern Alberta right now anyway, after the mess the PCs have made of things. They would would govern for a term and struggle to get the mess under control. And, just as they start making headway, it's election time again.

Far better to win more seats, appear like a government in waiting, and hopefully form government next time.
posted by Nevin at 12:45 PM on May 3, 2015 [4 favorites]


There is a lot of skepticism about the polls here. Many Albertans expect a PC majority regardless of what the numbers say. The biggest issue I have with the reporting of them is that the number of undecided voters is often left out/barely mentioned. If things are going to swing in one direction or another in the next 48 hours, it will be that group.
posted by nubs at 12:52 PM on May 3, 2015 [2 favorites]


Finally, vote-splitting works for Zoidberg!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 12:54 PM on May 3, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm just immensely pleased that the Alberta NDP leader's brother is the creator of Bob the Angry Flower. This week's strip is about as political as it ever gets.
posted by scruss at 1:37 PM on May 3, 2015 [5 favorites]


... socreds still exist??
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:49 PM on May 3, 2015 [3 favorites]


The pollsters were wrong on: the last Alberta election, the last BC election, the federal election in Quebec. It is not easy to put together polls that accurately predict this kind of parliamentary election -- it is not simply a majority of voters but where those voters live and how the vote is distributed. Sometimes parties, through their canvassing, have a much better notion of how things are going than the public polls. (That was the case in the BC election.) But right now, it's hard to say whether the Alberta PCs have a grip on anything, including electoral organization. But the Tories, like most right-wing parties, has a great tolerance for scandals and often overcome terrible headlines.
posted by CCBC at 1:53 PM on May 3, 2015


I still think the pollsters have lost the ability to provide accurate information

Or they're just not trying hard enough because the only way to provide accurate predictions is to do riding-by-riding polls, and it doesn't seem like anyone has bothered doing that lately on a federal or provincial level.
posted by one more dead town's last parade at 1:54 PM on May 3, 2015 [3 favorites]


I'm in Edmonton which is awash with orange lawn signs - people seem quite vocal in their support for NDP (even the switchers) so I'm feeling a little more optimistic than Nevin. However, I understand the lack of trust in the polling after the 2012 fiasco.
posted by piyushnz at 1:56 PM on May 3, 2015


the only way to provide accurate predictions is to do riding-by-riding polls, and it doesn't seem like anyone has bothered doing that lately on a federal or provincial level.


Yeah, the political scientist interviewed here talks about it quite clearly - that we're good at knowing the potential share of popular vote, but not what that means in terms of seats.
posted by nubs at 2:34 PM on May 3, 2015


I'm quite smug about how prescient my comment on the floor crossings turned out to be.

My worry is that we're going to end up with either a minority Tory government propped up by the Wild Rose, or vice versa. Too much of the NPD's polled support is concentrated in Edmonton, and I'm not sure it's going to translate into a proportional share of the seats province-wide. Still, I'm being quietly optimistic.
posted by figurant at 3:44 PM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]


As an outsider (a Canadian but not an Albertan) watching their train-wreck campaign from afar I find it hard to believe the Tories still have a chance to win this thing outright. But I live in Ontario, where we just re-elected the Liberals, so no judgement here.
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:15 PM on May 3, 2015


Well done, nubs.

I'm optimistic too - I've never come this close to being on the side of electing a progressive candidate in my entire life. My riding is one of those that traditionally elects the PC party's appointed candidate by a wide margin. This time he's got the Wildrose on one side and the NDP on the other. I'll be surprised if the NDP guy wins, but at least there's a chance to split the conservative vote.
posted by sneebler at 4:31 PM on May 3, 2015


It's been the strangest, worst run campaign I've ever seen (lived here all my life). And yet, depending on how Calgary and the rural ridings falls out, the Torys could finish just fine (I think Edmonton is pretty solid NDP right now). They have the deepest pockets and the most resources, and they are very good at mobilizing their vote, and in two days the conversation might just be about how wrong the polls were...again.

But the polls might not be wrong, just not able to fine grain the support each party has to understand the number of seats that are likely (ie, they will be a fair projection of the popular support each party has, but the seat count will not follow because of where that support is concentrated). Outwardly, the PCs are all confidence...but the fear mongering campaign that started last week has not let up for a moment.
posted by nubs at 4:35 PM on May 3, 2015


You're right on the fear mongering not letting up. Here in Calgary, there's a lot of "OMG the Librulz will spend your money on scroungers" (very reminiscent of the UK Conservatives). Not being a citizen yet, I can't vote, but I hope the NDP has a good showing. After 44 years, it's not as if the PC haven't had enough time to get it right, time to try someone new.
posted by arcticseal at 4:54 PM on May 3, 2015


Hey hey how do you do, Alberta is back on the blue! It's like Cookiegate all over again.

This election... It's frustration and anger and the irrepressible little voice of hope. Those of us who vote for non-PC candidates have never won an election. We go out and vote and our candidate loses, over and over again, for 44 years. Change never happens here, unless it's a change for the worse.

But maybe! Maybe this time PC supporters are sick of the latest party hack parachuted into the Premier's office, and the Party Of Mordor has stolen enough support in the rural heartland to split the vote in some crucial ridings. Maybe the NDP got a fresh new leader at exactly the right time. Maybe we can win?

Anything could happen, thanks to our first-past-the-post-system. Anybody from the PCs, NDP or Mordor could win, in any combination of majority or minority. A couple days from now we could be fucked in a way that's currently unimaginable, or we could end up with some boring version of more of the same... or the NDP might actually do it.

I hope they win. The real nightmare scenario for the right is if the NDP gets a chance to govern and the sky doesn't fall. If they do a good job, or even a mediocre but not terrible job, the myth that only right wing parties can run this province will be shattered forever. That's worth hoping for.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:34 PM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]


From the Maclean's link:
He [Brian Jean, Wildrose leader] has sometimes been stopped in the street by people who ask for his autograph on the mistaken assumption that he is the U.S. film actor William H. Macy.
That's not such a good sign, is it?
posted by clawsoon at 5:38 PM on May 3, 2015


He (Jean, not Macey) was just supposed to keep the party alive after Prentice enticed their last leader to defect. The official line was that this was the last election for Mordor before they were quietly absorbed back into the PCs. Now the guy has a non zero chance of being the next Premier, or being the power behind the throne in an unholy coalition.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:41 PM on May 3, 2015


I live in Lethbridge and one of our ridings (not mine, alas) has a real chance of electing an NDP candidate. In LETHBRIDGE. It's super exciting, not least because she's a friend of mine (of course she is, we live in Lethbridge).
posted by arcticwoman at 6:49 PM on May 3, 2015 [4 favorites]


Thanks for the excellent framing, helping those of us who are interested, but not very knowledgeable, dive in.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:37 PM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]


I met Jim Prentice on a small dock in southern Haida Gwaii, when he was Mnister of the Environment. He was there with David Suzuki and a bunch of Haida elders, and was saying all the right things, very charming, very persuasive and seemingly passionate and sincere about the environment. I was very impressed, in fact.

A couple of weeks later he quit as Minister to make some money with CIBC, and then not long after that was shilling for the Enbridge pipeline bitterly opposed by those very same Haida he had been buttering up, not to mention virtually every First Nation in BC.

Anyway, "politician has no principles" isn't exactly news but this was one of my most direct exposures to the almost psychopathic lying and self-interest of the breed.
posted by Rumple at 7:41 PM on May 3, 2015 [11 favorites]


I think most Albertans would settle for at least having a viable opposition.
posted by blue_beetle at 9:07 PM on May 3, 2015


Don Braid: Is the PC fear card and ace or a joker?

But the PC campaign boils down to this: Fear Rachel Notley — she’s so much like the greatest leader our party ever had.
posted by nubs at 9:35 PM on May 3, 2015


Of course Gary Mason phoned in a column with the title Can Prentice forge a miracle, days before Alberta election?

Does Mason even have any local knowledge of Alberta politics beyond that of someone like me, a non-Albertan who maybe sometimes reads the Journal or the Herald? I wonder why Mason is the lead political affairs columnist for Alberta at the G&M. Like me, he's an outsider.

Even his BC reporting is a little flat these days. I much prefer Keith Baldrey (who, with Mason cowrote a great book on Bill Vander Zalm back in the day).

But it's lazy pundits like Mason that really make me cynical about pollsters and the media when it comes to politics.
posted by Nevin at 9:47 PM on May 3, 2015


Here's an interesting analysis of the budgetary performance of the big three parties on a provincial level: Don't Fear the Dipper: Part 1

tl dr summary: NDP provincial governments have done really well when it comes to budgets. The PCs are slightly more profligate, and the Liberals tend to spend like they're Rich Uncle Pennybags.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:08 PM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'll repeat the prediction of a Facebook friend who looked at it riding by riding. The NDP will come out with a minority win, maybe one or two more seats than the PCs. But then the PCs will form a coalition with the Wildrose.
posted by Brodiggitty at 11:08 PM on May 3, 2015


That coalition -- in effect, a Wildrose government -- is exactly what I'm afraid of. But if they pull it off, it may help convince the federal Liberals and NDP to come to their senses and make the same move this fall.
posted by maudlin at 11:11 PM on May 3, 2015


More than one of the links in the post commented on how weird it was that Prentice (PC Premier) seemed to be focusing on Notley (NDP) as his main opposition in the debate.

It makes me wonder: In 2012, the PCs won by scaring center and left voters with the possibility of a Wildrose win; in this election, are the PCs trying to win by scaring right-wing voters with the possibility of an NDP win?

There are enough Albertans who'd be terrified of an NDP government more than they're disgusted by the PCs that it just might work.
posted by clawsoon at 11:49 PM on May 3, 2015


Kevin Street, would I be right to guess that the better-balanced NDP budgets have mostly come from the "New Labour"-style NDP governments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan?
posted by clawsoon at 12:45 AM on May 4, 2015


I suppose so, although he doesn't say. It looks like all of them added together.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:04 AM on May 4, 2015


He says he's basing it on numbers going back to 1981, so that's (based on quick subtraction from Wikipedia, not exact figures, not double-checked):

BC: 10 years
Nova Scotia: 4 years
Ontario: 5 years
Saskatchewan: 17 years
Manitoba: 23 years

So, yeah, that's completely dominated by the Saskatchewan and Manitoba NDP governments (40 years for them versus 19 for all other provinces).
posted by clawsoon at 5:58 AM on May 4, 2015 [1 favorite]


I enjoyed (Mefi's own... damn I forget) Chris Turner's quip the other day:

"As Albertans head to the polls, we need to ask ourselves: Are we better off than we were 44 years ago?"
posted by Flashman at 6:50 AM on May 4, 2015 [4 favorites]




Todays threehundredeight prediction has NDP with a huge majority.
However, closer examination of their methodology shows that they calculate the swing for each riding based on the alberta-wide current polling. I wonder if one could do better by using the Edmonton/Calgary/Rest of Alberta polling data to redo the analysis. I suspect the number of predicted seats for NDP would come down in Calgary and the rest of alberta regions. I'm tempted to redo the calculations myself based on the available data but I should probably get back to work!
posted by piyushnz at 10:04 AM on May 4, 2015 [2 favorites]




threehundredeight also predicted Wildrose winning just one seat less than a majority in 2012. (Don't look at the header graphic -- that's today's prediction -- but scroll down to the text and the pie charts). I'll wait for real results.
posted by maudlin at 11:41 AM on May 4, 2015


Yeah, I trust nothing when it comes to the polls. Still, it looks like advance polls recorded a higher turnout than 2012; The Wildrose is saying that their internal polls are showing an NDP majority; and Prentice is down to comparing himself to Han Solo. It feels...weird.
posted by nubs at 11:53 AM on May 4, 2015


I don't think Albertans have woken up to the fact that Postmedia (ie the major papers in Edmonton and Calgary, and their respective *Suns) have a very clear pro-business agenda, and are leading the charge on the "OMG, Socialists!" reaction. The National Post and the Globe & Mail can't even bother to write an intelligent analysis - they're hiding behind the polling issue to avoid saying anything they won't be able to take back if the NDP wins a majority. Seriously, these media are not helping society in any constructive way.
posted by sneebler at 11:59 AM on May 4, 2015 [1 favorite]


The ownership concentration in the media has reached ridiculous levels. Postmedia owns every major paper in the province!
posted by Kevin Street at 12:07 PM on May 4, 2015 [2 favorites]


Alberta politics has been the most fascinating ride over the last year - at this point, there are probably six plausible election results - any of three parties with either a majority or minority. If the polling is remotely correct, then there's only a couple of plausible results (NDP majority or minority; maybe PC minority), but we were burned badly in 2012. On one side, the PCs have the strongest get-out-the-vote game, and some NDP constituencies don't turn out to vote. On the other hand, unlike 2012, the NDP have been strengthening, not weakening in the last minute polls.

As it happens, I not only know the NDP candidate in my riding, but she's actually a smart, capable person (not very person I know who runs for office is actually someone I'd want in that office). So I did my campaigining duty, and I'm excited for the results tomorrow!
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 6:39 PM on May 4, 2015


Too close to call has a very nifty simulator that allows you to manipulate vote percentages for each party and see what would be the resulting seat distribution.

Also not to be missed is the twitter hashtag abvote.
posted by No Robots at 8:49 PM on May 4, 2015


Not to hijack the thread too much but ICYMI, the Liberals won a majority in PEI, with 18/27 seats, and about 41% of the vote. But the Green Party got a seat! NDP got about 11% and no seat. And the Cons dropped to about 37%, with their leader losing by 24 votes (out of about 2,100 cast).

Today is a day of watching Alberta, though. The election in the evening and Khadr's bail hearing in the morning!
posted by Lemurrhea at 5:06 AM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Multiple people currently tweeting about receiving calls with untrue information about voting requirements from PC candidates.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:13 AM on May 5, 2015


Given that the PCAA has decided that having Craig Chandler helping out is a good idea, I would not be surprised to hear about shenanigans. Then again, Elections AB is also often confused/wrong about correct polling locations.
posted by nubs at 11:48 AM on May 5, 2015


Looks like a pretty good results tracker at Global. For some reason, though, the riding list isn't alphabetical.
posted by No Robots at 12:04 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


The results of the Vote Compass project are out; it's very interesting to see what is more consistent across the province (e.g. "Alberta's economy is too dependent on oil and gas"), and what is more regionally supported or opposed ("The environmental damage caused by the oil sands industry is exaggerated.") - and in particular the urban/rural split. It also looks to me like much of the NDP platform is pretty broadly supported by Albertans.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 12:37 PM on May 5, 2015 [3 favorites]


That's a great map, Homeboy Trouble. Very interesting. If you click on "Paying for Access" (to health care), you can see a yellow horseshoe around Calgary where I assume the richest people live.

You can also see the southern Alberta Mormons in the "Gay-Straight Alliances" and "Abortion Services" questions.

And anger/prejudice/whatever against First Nations nearly turns the province black. Same thing with welfare recipients.
posted by clawsoon at 12:56 PM on May 5, 2015


It also looks to me like much of the NDP platform is pretty broadly supported by Albertans.

One political scientist I saw/heard interviewed somewhere basically said that if you look at what Albertans said they wanted in the pre-budget consultation the government did, and then what the party platforms are, there's only one party that appeared to be close to the public input - the NDP.
posted by nubs at 2:07 PM on May 5, 2015


And wow, that's a fascinating map. The sales tax question is amazing - only the city cores appear to be neutral.
posted by nubs at 2:09 PM on May 5, 2015


That's a great map, Homeboy Trouble. Very interesting. If you click on "Paying for Access" (to health care), you can see a yellow horseshoe around Calgary where I assume the richest people live.

That's the Chestermere-Rocky riding. My impression of it is that it is pretty affluent; Chestermere is a bedroom community on a nice little lake, and lots of acreages out there too. I could be wrong about that.

It will be a fascinating riding to watch tonight, regardless. Bruce McCallister, the PC Candidate, is the only surviving Wildrose floor crosser. He got the nomination when Jaime Lall was disqualified by the PC party - the whole story is in the "Buddy, You Are Being Set Up" link in the FPP. Lall is running as an independent, and there's Leela Aheer for the Wildrose; the Wildrose won it handily last time and it will be interesting to see how much anger there is about the floor crossing and the disqualification.
posted by nubs at 2:25 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Me and mine are following this madly in BC. Counting down the hours! Must go home and back orange flavoured cake.

Thanks for a great post, and especially the 5CEOs account which was new to me and made my day. Nothing pissed me off more than that CEO press conference (threat conference?). Very, very upset the U of A Board chair Doug Goss was there suggesting voters were mistaken to vote for the NDP (if they do). (I know it is described as a political appointment, but in fact, board members are appointed by the Queen's representative and their duty is to serve the best interests of the university and represent the public (not scold them)!!! Attending a press conference and nodding along while people publicly threaten to cut donations if people "vote the wrong way" is not an appropriate way to act for someone in such an office IMHO).
posted by chapps at 2:41 PM on May 5, 2015


That's a great map, Homeboy Trouble. Very interesting. If you click on "Paying for Access" (to health care), you can see a yellow horseshoe around Calgary where I assume the richest people live.

While The Harper Government's deliberate malfeasance means we don't actually know anything for sure about incomes in Canada, Chestermere-Rocky View likely has the highest household income of any riding in the entire province - lots of exurban leeches on the Calgary economy; the average household income in Rocky View is $240,000. (The next two - the Fort McMurray ones - are also obvious when you select the "Taxing the Wealthy" choice. Who says there's no such thing as class warfare?)
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 2:48 PM on May 5, 2015


That series of maps from Vote Compass is fascinating, but is it from a really representative sample of Albertans, or is it skewed by the somewhat more liberal CBC viewership/listenership? (I know the CBC trolls are dreadful, but I don't think that many of them earnestly participate in things like Vote Compass.)

... but as I keep clicking through, there are some pretty conservative views there. Eep. If this is skewed by CBC appreciation, then I really don't know how well the NDP will do tonight. I am still prepared to be pleasantly surprised, and I have some beer on hand no matter what.
posted by maudlin at 3:05 PM on May 5, 2015


Some more reading as we wait these last few hours:

How to shake a dynasty in ten easy steps


Political pundits predict wildly different election results


For the first time in my life, I can honestly say I don't know what is going to happen in a provincial election. It's a very weird feeling.

And for everyone outside the province watching: Don't be at all surprised if this is another PC majority. They are a resilient bunch with deep roots. I'm steeling myself that it is a likely outcome.
posted by nubs at 3:21 PM on May 5, 2015


One political scientist I saw/heard interviewed somewhere basically said that if you look at what Albertans said they wanted in the pre-budget consultation the government did, and then what the party platforms are, there's only one party that appeared to be close to the public input - the NDP.

On fiscal matters, yes. On social issues - let's use the journalistic adjective "hot-button social issues" - no. (And by "hot-button social issues", we mean sex and poor people.)
posted by clawsoon at 3:22 PM on May 5, 2015


Just for the record - I am in favour of sex, and believe poor people should have it too. Or else I wouldn't have any.

More seriously, in terms of sexual issues there are some socially conservative hotbeds around, but in general I think the attitude here has changed. The fight for GSAs in schools really took the PCs by surprise I think; even the Wildrose has said that they will accept the current legislation and only change it if legal challenges emerge.

(and I don't think it has been noted in the thread - the leader of the Wildrose, Brian Jean, lost his youngest son just a couple of weeks before this election campaign started. Heck, I think he was still running for leadership of the party at that time. Whatever I think about the man's policy stances, I admire the fact that he's still going).
posted by nubs at 3:35 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I’ve put together a tiered ranking system for the ridings using the tooclosetocall simulator. Tier one is based on 35% NDP, 30% PC and 30% WRP. If the NDP loses many of these, it is definitely out of contention. Tier two is based on 40% NDP, 25% PC and 30% WRP. The NDP needs all tier one and almost all tier two to form a majority. Tier 3 seats are gravy for the NDP.

Airdrie—Tier 3
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater—Tier 1
Banff-Cochrane—Tier 2
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock—Tier 3
Battle River-Wainwright—Tier 3
Bonnyville-Cold Lake—Tier 3
Calgary-Acadia—Tier 3
Calgary-Bow—Tier 3
Calgary-Buffalo—Tier 1
Calgary-Cross—Tier 3
Calgary-Currie—Tier 2
Calgary-East—Tier 3
Calgary-Elbow—Tier 2
Calgary-Fish Creek—Tier 3
Calgary-Foothills—Tier 3
Calgary-Fort—Tier 1
Calgary-Glenmore—Tier 3
Calgary-Greenway—Tier 3
Calgary-Hawkwood—Tier 3
Calgary-Hays—Tier 3
Calgary-Klein—Tier 1
Calgary-Lougheed—Tier 3
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill—Tier 3
Calgary-McCall—Tier 2
Calgary-Mountain View—Tier 1
Calgary-North West—Tier 3
Calgary-Northern Hills—Tier 3
Calgary-Shaw—Tier 3
Calgary-South East—Tier 3
Calgary-Varsity—Tier 2
Calgary-West—Tier 3
Cardston-Taber-Warner—Tier 3
Chestermere-Rocky View—Tier 3
Cypress-Medicine Hat—Tier 3
Drayton Valley-Calmar—Tier 2
Drumheller-Stettler—Tier 3
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley—Tier 3
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview—Tier 1
Edmonton-Calder—Tier 1
Edmonton-Castle Downs—Tier 1
Edmonton-Centre—Tier 1
Edmonton-Decore—Tier 1
Edmonton-Ellerslie—Tier 1
Edmonton-Glenora—Tier 1
Edmonton-Gold Bar—Tier 1
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood—Tier 1
Edmonton-Manning—Tier 1
Edmonton-McClung—Tier 1
Edmonton-Meadowlark—Tier 1
Edmonton-Mill Creek—Tier 1
Edmonton-Mill Woods—Tier 1
Edmonton-Riverview—Tier 1
Edmonton-Rutherford—Tier 1
Edmonton-South West—Tier 1
Edmonton-Strathcona—Tier 1
Edmonton-Whitemud—Tier 1
Fort McMurray-Conklin—Tier 3
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo—Tier 3
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville—Tier 2
Grande Prairie-Smoky—Tier 3
Grande Prairie-Wapiti—Tier 2
Highwood—Tier 3
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake—Tier 3
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills—Tier 3
Lacombe-Ponoka—Tier 2
Leduc-Beaumont—Tier 2
Lesser Slave Lake—Tier 3
Lethbridge-East—Tier 1
Lethbridge-West—Tier 1
Little Bow—Tier 3
Livingstone-Macleod—Tier 3
Medicine Hat—Tier 2
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills—Tier 3
Peace River—Tier 2
Red Deer-North—Tier 1
Red Deer-South—Tier 1
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre—Tier 3
Sherwood Park—Tier 1
Spruce Grove-St. Albert—Tier 2
St. Albert—Tier 2
Stony Plain—Tier 2
Strathcona-Sherwood Park—Tier 2
Strathmore-Brooks—Tier 3
Vermilion-Lloydminster—Tier 3
West Yellowhead—Tier 1
Wetaskiwin-Camrose—Tier 1
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne—Tier 3
posted by No Robots at 3:40 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


On fiscal matters, yes. On social issues - let's use the journalistic adjective "hot-button social issues" - no. (And by "hot-button social issues", we mean sex and poor people.)

Except that there isn't a lot of political action on hot-button social issues. The main exception recently is gay-straight alliances, which are supported in all urban ridings and about half of the rural ridings to boot. (Maybe 5 or so oppose - Stettler, Cardston, Ponoka...). There exist divisive social issues - abortions access still seems polarizing for instance - but they aren't actual campaign issues, that one SoCred guy aside.

Here's a poll of the top issues for Albertans in this election. 35% picked an economic issue (economy, taxes, cost of living, unemployment); 30% picked governance (accountability, leadership), and another 7% picked deficit or debt which could go into either bin. Another 20% picked social services (health, education) - but these are also primarily funding issues, not moral issues. All the hot button social issues are buried somewhere in that 5% "other" category.


I’ve put together a tiered ranking system for the ridings using the tooclosetocall simulator. Tier one is based on 35% NDP, 30% PC and 30% WRP. If the NDP loses many of these, it is definitely out of contention.


I looked at this as well - in slightly more wordy fashion, my rules of thumb are:

The NDP will be stuck in opposition if they don't basically run the table in Edmonton, Red Deer and Lethbridge; see below.

To get to a minority government, they need to pick up most of the Edmonton-area ridings (eg Stony Plain, the two in Sherwood Park, Leduc, Ft Sask), as well as the northeast (Grande Prairie, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley) and a couple in Calgary (Fort, East, Klein, Currie).

The line between majority and minority probably involves St. Albert and the inner northeast (Whitecourt, Barrhead). If they pick up any riding bordering Saskatchewan (Bonnyville, Vermillion) or any Calgary ridings outside the four I've mentioned (as well as Buffalo and Mountain View) - they should start thinking about who forms cabinet; I have some suggestions for Minister of Yoga Affairs.

If the NDP are stuck in opposition, then look to the Calgary ridings to see who will form government - if the Wild Rose pick up more than 4 or so (particularly if they start winning ridings outside of the south suburbs of Calgary [Shaw, FIsh Creek, South East]), then they have a shot at government. If the PCs start picking up ridings in the North (Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie, Whitecourt, Barrhead) and north central (Drayton Valley, Battle River), then they start looking good for government.

The most interesting result is the NDP getting 42 or so - all of Greater Edmonton plus the small urban ridings, and the Liberals capturing three - their two incumbents and Calgary-Buffalo. In that case, the NDP form a minority government, with the balance of power held by the Liberals in three of the four most urban ridings in the province (the fourth being the premier's own riding).
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:19 PM on May 5, 2015


By the way, if you want more election talk, I just started listening to this 51 minute podcast from a couple of days ago [their Twitter] featuring former election strategists Stephen Carter and Corey Hogan, and it's just great.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:54 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


A friend of mine who studies Canadian politics has a theory on why the polls might not end up predicting the outcome based on the idea that the polls are generally not including undecideds when showing vote share, that there a lot of undecideds and a lot of volatility in voters choices, that the undecideds are probably mostly right-leaning strategic voters choosing between PC and WR given the ideological distance between them and the NDP, and that the polls across Canadian provinces have been systematically underestimating support for incumbent parties. Given all of that, and the small margins between the parties in a lot of non-Edmonton ridings as discussed in ThreeHundredEight today, I am worried that the NDP will end up falling flat. I'm still crossing my fingers and holding out hope though!
posted by lookoutbelow at 5:33 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Meanwhile, Mainstreet Technologies is claiming that even if all undecided go PC, the NDP will still get a majority. (The Strategists podcast Homeboy Trouble linked above -- which is great -- seems to think an NDP minority was more likely.)

I'm keeping my beer cold.
posted by maudlin at 5:47 PM on May 5, 2015


Is anyone doing exit polls for the election?
posted by clawsoon at 6:27 PM on May 5, 2015


Global is running an exit poll on their site, but because anyone can answer, I doubt that it's worth the pixels it's printed on.
posted by maudlin at 6:55 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


OK, here we go. I always wonder, beyond the undecideds, how many people change their minds at the moment of truth and go back to what is familiar.
posted by nubs at 7:08 PM on May 5, 2015


Biting...my...nails!
posted by chapps at 7:28 PM on May 5, 2015


Current - leading:

PC - 19
NDP 18
WR - 12
Lib - 0
Other 0

very few polls reporting.
posted by nubs at 7:29 PM on May 5, 2015


NDP just jumped to 33!!!!
posted by nubs at 7:30 PM on May 5, 2015


The CBC ticker shows an Alberta Communist Party. Huh. They are running two candidates.
posted by clawsoon at 7:30 PM on May 5, 2015


Wow it looks like it might actually be happening. Who would have ever thought...
posted by Flashman at 7:31 PM on May 5, 2015


Very few polls reporting yet. Lots can change.
posted by nubs at 7:32 PM on May 5, 2015


NDP now leading/elected in 42 according to Global. 44 needed for majority.
posted by nubs at 7:35 PM on May 5, 2015


Holy cow they might just do it.
posted by Nevin at 7:35 PM on May 5, 2015


Leading in 40 now -- no, 43. Wow.
posted by maudlin at 7:36 PM on May 5, 2015


47!
posted by oulipian at 7:36 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


cbc says leading in 47 with more than half of polls reporting.
posted by Nevin at 7:36 PM on May 5, 2015


Lukaszuk gone. Calgary showing lots of Orange. Holy fuck. Edmonton and surrounding areas all orange.
posted by nubs at 7:38 PM on May 5, 2015


I wouldn't be surprised if some of the NDP leads are in ridings where the urban polls have reported but the equally sizable rural polls haven't yet.
posted by clawsoon at 7:39 PM on May 5, 2015


Global now projecting NDP majority government. Global declares NDP government!

Utterly flabergasted.
posted by nubs at 7:39 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Bwahahahahaha
posted by Flashman at 7:40 PM on May 5, 2015


If Lesser Slave Lake stays orange, I'll have to eat my words.
posted by clawsoon at 7:41 PM on May 5, 2015


Woah. Wow
posted by Jalliah at 7:41 PM on May 5, 2015


How sweet it is. We can only hope this marks the beginning of the end of Harper and company too.
posted by Nevin at 7:41 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Lots of smug pollster nerds out there right now. Also, please check out Justin Ling's timeline. He's trapped in an Ottawa pub full of NDPers going bananas. Oh my god I think this crowd is going to nationalize a bank.
posted by maudlin at 7:43 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]



I don't even know what to say. I have been so out of what's been going on that I didn't realize there even was an election until I read this thread earlier today.

I am just astounded that this actually happened.
posted by Jalliah at 7:44 PM on May 5, 2015


Alberta already has the only government-owned bank in North America, doesn't it? (Or is it just the only one in Canada?)
posted by clawsoon at 7:46 PM on May 5, 2015


55!
posted by piyushnz at 7:46 PM on May 5, 2015


Guess Alberta is an NDP province after all - CBC calls it.
posted by piyushnz at 7:47 PM on May 5, 2015


This is history, folks. A major, major chapter in Alberta/Canadian political history.

Global just showed the PC HQ a little while ago; it looks like a tomb.
posted by nubs at 7:49 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Just looking at all the headshots passing by, there are so many young people and women among the NDP candidates. After the orange wave in Quebec, a lot of the young (and some anglo) candidates who had won ended up positively surprising everyone and becoming very popular in their ridings. I can only hope that a similar thing happens here. The kind of person who runs for the NDP in Alberta (federal or provincial) is often young, smart and passionate and I want to see the government that we get out of it.
posted by lookoutbelow at 7:50 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


PC 's may not even be official opposition!
posted by Kabanos at 7:50 PM on May 5, 2015


This is turning my world upside down.
posted by Jalliah at 7:50 PM on May 5, 2015


How many hours until the "Alberta economy sucks because NDP, it's just like Bob Rae" drumbeat starts?
posted by clawsoon at 7:51 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Well fuck my socks off!

First Nenshi, now this... first time in my life Ive voted for the winner in my riding. I always figured when that happened it was a sure sign I got old...
posted by bumpkin at 7:52 PM on May 5, 2015 [6 favorites]


Try minutes; the talking heads are already saying that Rachel needs to assure the province, the country and the continent that we are still open for business or risk destroying everything.
posted by nubs at 7:52 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


How many hours till "unite the right"?
posted by Kabanos at 7:52 PM on May 5, 2015



Is it bad that part of the joy I'm getting from this is imagining a really grumpy Harper?
posted by Jalliah at 7:54 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Heh. The Globe results page has crashed. The National Post is still just calling it "a commanding lead" rather than a majority. And there's absolutely nothing about Alberta on the cover of the Toronto Sun, the little paper that wanted to live in an oil patch.
posted by maudlin at 7:55 PM on May 5, 2015


The NDP Province of Alberta.

THE NDP PROVINCE OF ALBERTA.
posted by Kabanos at 7:56 PM on May 5, 2015 [8 favorites]


I've seen PC majorities declared within an hour before, but never expected to see an NDP majority declared 40 minutes after polls closed. I thought this was going to be an all nighter.
posted by nubs at 7:58 PM on May 5, 2015


Duane Bratt pointing out that even an increase in corporate tax from 10% to 12% still means the lowest corporate tax in the county. He even managed to work in a math is hard joke.
posted by nubs at 8:02 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Of the floor crosser ridings - only one is leading (Bruce, in Chestermere-Rocky View) - the other 10 are either back in the hands of WR or the NDP.
posted by nubs at 8:04 PM on May 5, 2015


I'm sure Harper is grumpy about his home province going NDP, but the effect of this landslide on the upcoming federal election is not necessarily bad for him. If this gives any boost to the NDP brand nation-wide it will probably be at the expense of the Liberals, which works well for him.
posted by Kabanos at 8:04 PM on May 5, 2015


Wow, this is beyond my wildest expectations. And could not have happened to a more smug, more craven, duplicitious, self-serving shit than Jim Prentice.
posted by Rumple at 8:04 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm with the group that fears that same thing will happen to the NDP in Alberta as happened in Ontario. It will discover a bigger mess than expected, it will have to take tough action to fix the mess and as a reward it will be dumped at the next election for return to Tory rule, although I'd really, really love to be wrong about that scenario.
posted by sardonyx at 8:05 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Robin Campbell, the finance Minister, is losing in West Yellowhead. I think that pretty much sums up the situation.
posted by piyushnz at 8:06 PM on May 5, 2015


Wildrose will be the opposition. The PCs have a lot of hard questions in front of them; from 72 seats to third place is...shocking.

Prentice is only up by about 200 votes in his riding at the moment.
posted by nubs at 8:12 PM on May 5, 2015


I sure hope Prentice wins his riding so he has to twist in the wind for a good dose of public humiliation.
posted by Rumple at 8:14 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Sardonyx, I think that's a likely scenario. The unpopularity of tough action will also likely be exacerbated by a whole bunch of unimportant but media-inflated missteps by a legislature full of rookie MPs.
posted by Kabanos at 8:15 PM on May 5, 2015


Not the biggest Conservative loss in Canadian history, but, yeah, shocking is still a good word for it.
posted by clawsoon at 8:16 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm going to go get another beer and resist phoning my WR loving parents.

Big, big job ahead for this new government.
posted by nubs at 8:16 PM on May 5, 2015


As of tonight, the only province in Canada governed by Progressive Conservatives will be Newfoundland & Labrador, and in a few months that government, too, is on track to be completely demolished at the polls.
posted by oulipian at 8:18 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I've understand the fears this being a one term government. I've heard the arguments that politically a minority NDP would have been better for them in the long run. But honestly, politics aside, NDP now have four years to correct the course of this province. Four years to fix the royalties mess, to reinvest back in education and healthcare, to make the tax system more progressive. Who knows, maybe they will even pull it off but someone has to at least try.
posted by piyushnz at 8:20 PM on May 5, 2015 [3 favorites]


Kabanos, I forgot about the inevitable rookie blunders, but you're right. Those are definitely to be expected. And their mistakes will be harped upon by a bunch of ex-Tory MPPs who will suddenly find themselves very open to acting as pundits and experts on TV and radio news programs.
posted by sardonyx at 8:21 PM on May 5, 2015


As of tonight, the only province in Canada governed by Progressive Conservatives will be Newfoundland & Labrador, and in a few months that government, too, is on track to be completely demolished at the polls.

I have a half-baked theory that the way to most completely destroy support for an extremist idea is to let its most ardent supporters govern for a while.
posted by clawsoon at 8:22 PM on May 5, 2015


The 1973 Barrett NDP government in BC was a one-term wonder after aeons of highly conservative Socred rule. They did a tremendous amount in their three years, establishing such things as the Agricultural Land Reserve, ICBC, and the Labour Relations Board which persist to the present and are generally respected (if grumbled about). I hope the Alberta NDP is not a one-term thing - it might be, especially if PCs and WR reconcile - but don't underestimate the things they could get done. There must be incredible pent-up demand on certain social issues, for example, which don't necessarily cost huge money.
posted by Rumple at 8:25 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Alberta Political History - ruling parties from founding of the province:
1905-1921 Alberta Liberal Party
1921-1935 United Farmers Party
1935-1971 Social Credit Party
1971-2015 Progress Conservative Party
2015 -???? New Democratic Party


Only the 5th party in 110 years to form a government here.
posted by nubs at 8:28 PM on May 5, 2015


Holy shit, Alberta!

The best part of CBC-TV's election coverage so far was when the PC flack said that capital would start fleeing the province tomorrow. Like, first thing. The minute the banks open.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:29 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


While I'm happy that the NDP look to win a majority they're going to do it with just under 40% of the popular vote. Kind of a mirror of what's been happening at the federal level. We really need to look into better ways of voting in this country.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 8:31 PM on May 5, 2015 [4 favorites]


They keep talking about what a massive majority the NDP have on Global - WTF? Looks like 53/54 seats - compared to what the PCs have had, that's not a massive majority.
posted by nubs at 8:35 PM on May 5, 2015


One thing the NDP did in BC (before calling a poorly-timed election) was drag the province into modern parliamentary practice -- Hansard, meaningful question period, and so on. Previously, Saskatchewan and Manitoba had experienced this upgrade. I expect this to be an NDP legacy in Alberta, too.
posted by CCBC at 8:35 PM on May 5, 2015 [3 favorites]


The best part of CBC-TV's election coverage so far was when the PC flack said that capital would start fleeing the province tomorrow. Like, first thing. The minute the banks open.

Current talking head on CBC has pointed out that the capital has been leaving the province for the last three months - no new investment or expansion of anything due to low oil prices.
posted by nubs at 8:38 PM on May 5, 2015 [3 favorites]


While I'm happy that the NDP look to win a majority they're going to do it with just under 40% of the popular vote.

First-past-the-post definitely keeps things interesting. At the federal level, there have only been two elections since 1953 in which the winner got more than 50% of the vote.
posted by clawsoon at 8:39 PM on May 5, 2015


CBC predicting that Prentice will step down.

Panelist: Question becomes who will lead them.
Host: Who would want to
posted by nubs at 8:41 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Interesting is one word for FPTP.
posted by jeather at 8:41 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Don't forget, though, that as oil prices rise over the next few years (and I would bet they will, as the cheapest frackable patches dry up), all that money goes to the government and they get to claim it as a win. It's not, really, for the same reasons that the PCs didn't have a great economic policy just because they had oil money, but it's enough to keep the wolves at bay.
posted by Lemurrhea at 8:41 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Maybe Prentice can be appointed Consul General to Los Angeles ?
posted by Kabanos at 8:44 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Hmmmm.

Alberta Bound or Springtime in Alberta? and germanyyyyy...
posted by Lemurrhea at 8:53 PM on May 5, 2015




This is a striking map of the last four Alberta elections.
posted by Rumple at 9:01 PM on May 5, 2015


Prentice resigns as PC leader and "steps aside" on the seat he just won (Calgary-Foothills).
posted by flex at 9:03 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I dunno, quitting as MLA 10 minutes after you get elected is pretty crass and insulting to the voters. I can understand quitting as leader but at least offer a transition.
posted by Rumple at 9:04 PM on May 5, 2015 [10 favorites]


What a cowardly move by Prentice.
posted by sardonyx at 9:06 PM on May 5, 2015 [6 favorites]


If he just resigned as PC leader effective immediately does that mean Alberta does not have a Premier? What happens? Is there a deputy who automatically becomes premier, even only for a couple of weeks?
posted by Rumple at 9:08 PM on May 5, 2015


Okay folks. No excuses anymore. If fucking ALBERTA can an elect an NDP government, then we can get rid of Harper. Time to get off our asses and make it happen.
posted by dry white toast at 9:09 PM on May 5, 2015 [11 favorites]


@ABDanielleSmith
The NDP surge would have happened regardless of anything I did folks. This is why I said conservatives needed to reunite. I wasn't joking.


@katewerk Katewerk
You need to take a long walk in the snow now.
posted by Nevin at 9:09 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Agghh! I feel like an idiot. I knew it was MLA and not MPP but for some reason the wrong letters came out of my fingers. I guess they were just in shock (as it the rest of me--I really thought the polls were wrong again).
posted by sardonyx at 9:09 PM on May 5, 2015


Yeah, one of the CBC talking heads said it was "taking your ball & going home" to resign his seat on top of resigning as PC leader. Also they pointed out that the by-election for it is not likely to end well for the PCs ("which is hard when that seat now represents one-tenth of your caucus!"). Now they're saying it's insulting to the voters of his riding and that he's resigning before all the votes have even been counted. Pretty pointed commentary.
posted by flex at 9:11 PM on May 5, 2015


CBC Talking Head: There is no future for the PC Party of Alberta; what held them together was power.
posted by nubs at 9:11 PM on May 5, 2015


That awkward hug picture of Jim and Danielle just captures everything right now.
posted by nubs at 9:13 PM on May 5, 2015


David Swann, Liberal leader (only Liberal elected tonight):

-You voted for change. It`s about time!

-I`ve worked all over the world. Never seen a change of power like this that is peaceful.
posted by nubs at 9:15 PM on May 5, 2015


@leahebae: So Stephen Harper now has a NDP MLA. Great work, Alberta.
posted by Banknote of the year at 9:15 PM on May 5, 2015 [7 favorites]


If he just resigned as PC leader effective immediately does that mean Alberta does not have a Premier?

Remember that his leadership of the PC party is separate from his position as Premier. Technically, the Lieutenant Governor chooses the Premier (on behalf of the Queen, with the advice of the Legislature), dissolves the Legislature for an election, etc., so presumably Prentice stays Premier until the Lieutenant Governor puts his (her?) rubber stamp on today's proceedings.
posted by clawsoon at 9:16 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I honestly wonder what would have happened if there hadn't been the wildrose shenanigans! How much of the NDP boost, or even just PC apathy, came from wildrosers who felt betrayed by Smith & blamed Prentice for it? I know that now uniting the two wouldn't get them to the NDP's levels, but what would have happened if they'd stayed separate.

Oh well. Who cares!
posted by Lemurrhea at 9:19 PM on May 5, 2015


CBC Talking Head: There is no future for the PC Party of Alberta; what held them together was power.

Apparently that was Stephen Carter, the man who ran the PC's 2012 campaign. Wow.
posted by Nevin at 9:20 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


clawsoon, ok, that makes sense, I guess Alberta now has an unelected Premier for a little while.
posted by Rumple at 9:20 PM on May 5, 2015


If he just resigned as PC leader effective immediately does that mean Alberta does not have a Premier? What happens? Is there a deputy who automatically becomes premier, even only for a couple of weeks?

The Sergeant-At-Arms takes over and rules by the strength of his mace, until Rachel Notley is crowned by the Lieutenant Governor or someone defeats him in single combat. Whichever comes first.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:22 PM on May 5, 2015 [9 favorites]


Apparently that was Stephen Carter, the man who ran the PC's 2012 campaign. Wow.

Yeah, for whatever reason I did not recognize him.

CBC talking head who used to run Liberal campaigns also predicting that the Liberal Party of AB is done.
posted by nubs at 9:22 PM on May 5, 2015


I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS IS HAPPENING! WAHOO!!!!
posted by Kevin Street at 9:23 PM on May 5, 2015


Yeah these pundits are not mincing their words. The knives are out all over the place, it's going to be a great show.
posted by Rumple at 9:24 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


If CBC is to be believed, the Communist Party is beating the Albert First Party (not to be confused with the Alberta Party) for share of the popular vote.

I wonder what the actual vote counts are. (What does 0.01% translate to?)
posted by clawsoon at 9:28 PM on May 5, 2015


What's next, the Greens win Texas?
posted by clawsoon at 9:30 PM on May 5, 2015


Yeah these pundits are not mincing their words. The knives are out all over the place, it's going to be a great show.

The one who is from the PCs on CBC has, at least once, asked that maybe the autopsy could wait until the body is cold.

And then proceeded to cut.
posted by nubs at 9:30 PM on May 5, 2015


Heh. Via twitter, "So if you're one of the few PC MLAs left standing, do you cross the floor to join the Wildrose party?"
posted by Lemurrhea at 9:30 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


"If he just resigned as PC leader effective immediately does that mean Alberta does not have a Premier?"

One of the reasons you separate the bureaucracy from the policy positions is that most of the government just keeps functioning even during relatively chaotic changes in power (such as after an assassination). Ceremonial or symbolic duties typically temporarily devolve on a second-in-command or a speaker or a senior member; policy-making, the real task of a ruling party, does in fact come to an official halt while everybody resorts themselves (although of course that's why you have shadow ministers and so on, so you can get a running start).
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:34 PM on May 5, 2015


of course that's why you have shadow ministers and so on, so you can get a running start

"His/Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition" was one of the greatest inventions of British parliamentary democracy, in my opinion.
posted by clawsoon at 9:40 PM on May 5, 2015




Notley: "I haven't done the math yet -
*crowd erupts into laughter and cheering*
- but we have elected the most women into government office -
*drowned by cheering*
- So that's kinda cool."
posted by Lemurrhea at 9:47 PM on May 5, 2015 [4 favorites]


There has been no Premier since the election was called. There is no "lame duck" period in the Westminster system. The Head of State is the Lieutenant-Governor, not the Premier.

So the only thing Prentice's announcement means is that his riding won't have an MLA when the session of the Legislature begins.
posted by dry white toast at 9:47 PM on May 5, 2015 [4 favorites]


Thanks for the correction, dry white toast.

I note that one of the first groups Notley reassured were "job creators", specifically those in the energy sector.
posted by clawsoon at 9:53 PM on May 5, 2015


Every Wildrose MLA that crossed to the PCs over the last few months has lost their seat with this election.

Rob Anderson (not running, Wildrose now controls seat)
Gary Bikman (not running, Wildrose now controls seat)
Ian Donovan (defeated by Wildrose David Schneider)
Rod Fox (not running, Wildrose now controls seat)
Jason Hale (not running, Wildrose now controls seat)
Bruce McAllister (trailing by ~80 votes to Wildrose Leela Sharon Aheer)
Blake Pedersen (not running, NDP now controls seat)
Bruce Rowe (not running, Wildrose now controls seat)
Danielle Smith (defeated during nomination, Wildrose now controls seat)
Kerry Towle (defeated by Wildrose Don MacIntyre)
Jeff Wilson (defeated by NDP Graham Sucha)

Not a single seat was retained by the PCs, regardless of who ran as their representative.
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 9:56 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Interesting to me that she also mentioned the First Nations; that is not something that we usually hear.
posted by nubs at 9:56 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Every Wildrose MLA that crossed to the PCs over the last few months has lost their seat with this election

And the Wildrose has ended up the stronger party in the end.

I think there is material enough for about two dozen doctoral dissertations for poli sci students from the past two years of AB politics.
posted by nubs at 10:00 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Interesting to me that she also mentioned the First Nations; that is not something that we usually hear.

Really?
posted by Nevin at 10:03 PM on May 5, 2015


- but we have elected the most women into government office -

I think the new Alberta NDP caucus is approaching gender parity. I work for an organization that has gender parity (50/50), and it's really different, in a good way.
posted by Nevin at 10:04 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


I could be wrong, but I do not recall any other premier mentioning them on election night.
posted by nubs at 10:04 PM on May 5, 2015


I could be wrong, but I do not recall any other premier mentioning them on election night.

In BC at least *token* acknowledgement of First Nations is part of government protocol.
posted by Nevin at 10:08 PM on May 5, 2015


There has been no Premier since the election was called.

Not true. The premier remains premier, even after the writ drop, until someone else becomes premier; Jim Prentice is still in office as premier. Similarly, David Cameron remains prime minister.
posted by one more dead town's last parade at 10:15 PM on May 5, 2015


In BC at least *token* acknowledgement of First Nations is part of government protocol.

In AB, protocol on election night has been trying to make sure the winner does not just engage in a Sideshow Bob-esque laughing fit.
posted by nubs at 10:18 PM on May 5, 2015 [7 favorites]


Speaking of first-past-the-post: The BC and federal NDP have both floated proportional representation. Is that something that's on the Alberta NDP radar?
posted by Banknote of the year at 10:23 PM on May 5, 2015


Most popular picture among my Alberta Facebook friends right now is King Ralph.
posted by clawsoon at 11:05 PM on May 5, 2015 [1 favorite]


Is it me or is it weird that Trudeau announced his fiscal platform yesterday ensuring it would be drowned out by this election? The news will be all orange all day tomorrow.
posted by chapps at 11:05 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


Multiple people currently tweeting about receiving calls with untrue information about voting requirements from PC candidates.

Please encourage anyone who says this to report it formally and keep records. This happened in my riding (Saanich) two federal elections ago, and a friend reported it. We can only hold this at bay if we all report, every time.
posted by chapps at 11:19 PM on May 5, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm going to piss in the wind here and observe the rarity that I am, a person with an account on Metafilter who lives in AB and is not cheering an NDP majority. I am unemployed (which I don't say as a marker of anything), having worked for a branch of AB government for ten years. (Incidentally, the much-needed changes to the administration of that entity that were in the PC budget will probably not happen because of this election.)

Not to cheapen any profound ideological shift in Alberta that may have happened (but it seems really unlikely to me)—this election result also came about because of:

— off-the-charts levels of conservative vote splitting
— the "anyone but me ought to pay" effect of the PC budget. A short story: my grandma, who owns a valuable home in the city and has hundreds of thousands in savings, acts like she is poor and has a lot to say every time a bill goes up $10. The PC budget's tax increases caused many reasonably well-off people to become my grandma: nobody wants to pay their share, thus they vote in "protest". The NDP will save us from that, of course, by pretending that government is free. That odd law of politics then takes over: pretending that government is free encourages or even requires even more government, making it more expensive and delaying an inevitable, now even-bigger right-sizing further into the future. For all their faults the PC's under Prentice were I think trying to make some progress on that front.

None of this in any way implies my support of the PCs, but I hate big government. I also dislike corporatism and favoritism of any stripe—who do I vote for? As I will argue below, the NDP just pick different favorites, this nebulous "labour", which is already plenty powerful when defined as they define it.

I don't buy for a minute, in Alberta at least, the old NDP-type rhetoric of working for the working class, who always happen to be "teachers and nurses". Public unions are huge powers unto themselves, and any professional or semi-professional member of one (I was one, or had compensation influenced by same, so let me talk) is a member of a privileged economic class already. The NDP and the economic left at large still want you to believe they aren't. (I understand that things may be quite different in the US.) Meanwhile, the economic progress of the true working class continues to deteriorate, everywhere. More public unions won't help them, because (as far as I know) not everyone can be employed by the government.

I am interested in honest and transparent and (gasp) efficient, smart, and limited government. I am interested in ways of limiting the ability of the economically powerful to influence government: but the economically powerful are not just the Koch brothers; they are also your unionized Alberta nurse friend who makes $120k salary and ben with seven weeks of paid leave a year and who will get an $70k pension (my retired parents who worked for 40 years get $700 a month between them in private pension income).

Alberta public "servants" are for the most part overpaid and over-benefitted (pension plans underfunded, etc. etc.) and do not need that NDP "oh but labour!" thing on their side. Those of you who support the NDP, put your money where your mouth is and please make sure that NDP policies are truly helping the powerless. More petting of public unions (a nut that even the PCs weren't willing to crack, such is their power) as a stand-in for "working for the people" is cowardly and entirely parallel to the corruption and friendly dealings that people hated in the PC government--it's simply the left's version of same.

If the NDP finds a way to help the real, non-privileged working class in this province, they could win my support. That's not the party I know. The party I know acts like sycophants towards union leaders (which in some cases means their own politicians, of course), who represent organizations with too much power already, and also in a sense, monopolistic power against the people of the province.
posted by sylvanshine at 12:24 AM on May 6, 2015


Ah yes, let's all remember who the real enemy of the little guy is: schoolteachers and nurses. How dare they feel entitled to a salary sufficient to support a family and to retire at 65.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 4:06 AM on May 6, 2015 [4 favorites]


It is pretty obvious that of the four parties the NDP are most supportive of all unions. It is a complete no brainer for my trade union to prefer the labour friendly NDP.
posted by Mitheral at 4:28 AM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


Further the NDP are the only ones supporting increased unionization. You want to truly help oppressed workers at all levels? Encourage unionization and give better supports to striking and locked out workers. Don't be undermining their efforts at collective bargaining with bullshit like temporary foreign workers.
posted by Mitheral at 4:33 AM on May 6, 2015 [5 favorites]


If the NDP finds a way to help the real, non-privileged working class in this province, they could win my support. That's not the party I know.

As I remember it, the NDP are supporters of raising Alberta's minimum wage to $15/h. That certainly sounds like working to help the "real, non-privileged working class", no?
posted by Lemurrhea at 4:35 AM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


As a former Alberta resident who only left because of cuts to the higher education system brought about by myopic "small government" thinking, I say the NDP victory is fantastic news. I live in the US now and would dearly, DEARLY, love to return home.
posted by Poldo at 4:42 AM on May 6, 2015


(And yes, I am aware of the irony of moving to the US due to small government myopia in Alberta, but at least they still fund science here)
posted by Poldo at 4:52 AM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


Does anyone have a good analysis (or links to good analysis) of why it was the NDP and not the Liberals who won? I'm seeing lots of thinkpieces about how it was anger at the PCs that led to this election - and I don't mean to slag the NDP by any means, but there's at least some truth in that. So why Notley/NDP and not the Libs?
posted by Lemurrhea at 6:45 AM on May 6, 2015


Listening to the news this morning, the business community is losing their shit. Things like new government has "no ties to them"; "Doesn't understand the business community" (may not be exact quotes, but pretty close).

When was the last time anyone worried that the new environment minister had no ties to that community? Or the minister of infrastructure? Or education? Or health?

Not to cheapen any profound ideological shift in Alberta that may have happened (but it seems really unlikely to me)—this election result also came about because of:
— off-the-charts levels of conservative vote splitting
— the "anyone but me ought to pay" effect of the PC budget.


I think there's a lot of factors at play: vote splitting; the budget (which completely and utterly ignored the public input that was solicited on how to share the pain across everyone - I think the feedback from AB was that if we're all in this together, then we're all going to have to be in this together. The PCs even making a token 1% increase to business tax could've changed this election); an ongoing demographic shift in the province - a lot of people have moved here in the past twenty years, and they come from places where things like NDP governments (or just changing the government) are not scary - I'm not sure anyone has really been looking at that; loathing of the scandal ridden, entitlement heavy former government (loathing has won over fear, this time); the NDP running an effective, moderate campaign (seriously, look at their platform - this is not any kind of hard left socialist government); the decision of the PC campaign to focus on the NDP as the opponent, which lent legitimacy to the NDP as a threat.
posted by nubs at 6:54 AM on May 6, 2015


Does anyone have a good analysis (or links to good analysis) of why it was the NDP and not the Liberals who won? I'm seeing lots of thinkpieces about how it was anger at the PCs that led to this election - and I don't mean to slag the NDP by any means, but there's at least some truth in that. So why Notley/NDP and not the Libs?

I had always thought that Trudeau's National Energy Program had destroyed the Liberal brand in Alberta for all time, but I see that the provincial elections in the 1990s prove me wrong.
posted by clawsoon at 7:10 AM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


Someone commented on CBC: "One of Rachel Notley's first announcements will be that Alberta can retire all of its coal operated generating plants as the province can now generate enough electricity from Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein spinning in their graves."
posted by oulipian at 8:03 AM on May 6, 2015 [2 favorites]


I did a bit of spreadsheeting on the results, and it looks like the ridings where vote-splitting gave the NDP their government were:

DUNVEGAN-CENTRAL PEACE-NOTLEY
CALGARY-ACADIA
CALGARY-BOW
CALGARY-CROSS
CALGARY-HAWKWOOD
CALGARY-NORTHERN HILLS
CALGARY-SHAW
PEACE RIVER
RED DEER-NORTH
WEST YELLOWHEAD
WHITECOURT-STE. ANNE

So Calgary, and northwestern Alberta. If a third or so of either Wildrose or PC voters had crossed over, there wouldn't be an NDP government.

For balance, the NDP got basically the same mandate (around 40% of the popular vote, give or take a couple of percentage points) for every federal majority government since 1958, other than Mulroney's big 50% win in 1984.
posted by clawsoon at 8:16 AM on May 6, 2015 [3 favorites]


Nancy Peckford of Equal Voice writes a great article about gender issues at play in this Alberta election, past Alberta elections, and other Canadian elections.
posted by Lemurrhea at 8:17 AM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


One of Rachel Notley's first announcements will be that Alberta can retire all of its coal operated generating plants as the province can now generate enough electricity from Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein spinning in their graves."

Which is doubly ironic given the very brief "Extremist of the Day" strategy that the NDP used to counter the initial PC strategy of painting everyone but them as "extreme."
posted by nubs at 8:35 AM on May 6, 2015


Nancy Peckford of Equal Voice writes a great article about gender issues at play in this Alberta election, past Alberta elections, and other Canadian elections.

It is interesting that voters have lifted up female leaders in Alberta in the last couple of elections (Alison Redford, Danielle Smith, Rachel Notley), while internal party politics have pulled them down. Redford and Smith didn't lose at the ballot box; Redford was pushed out by her party for bad press between elections, and Smith let Prentice talk her into giving up her leadership of Wildrose.
posted by clawsoon at 9:03 AM on May 6, 2015


how could Rachel Notley not be an extremist when her own brother — her own brother! — is on the record as wanting to destroy all money?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:07 AM on May 6, 2015 [3 favorites]


I note with some amusement that the riding of Calgary-Klein voted for the NDP.

(Calgary-Lougheed stuck with the PCs.)
posted by clawsoon at 10:08 AM on May 6, 2015


Eric Grenier takes a victory lap on behalf of the pollsters.
posted by Lemurrhea at 10:21 AM on May 6, 2015


One of Rachel Notley's first announcements will be that Alberta can retire all of its coal operated generating plants as the province can now generate enough electricity from Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein spinning in their graves."

On a more serious note, I did see something about Notely promising to shift provincial funding from developing carbon capture technology to schools and hospitals.
posted by Nevin at 10:27 AM on May 6, 2015


— off-the-charts levels of conservative vote splitting
— the "anyone but me ought to pay" effect of the PC budget. [...] The NDP will save us from that, of course, by pretending that government is free. That odd law of politics then takes over: pretending that government is free encourages or even requires even more government, making it more expensive and delaying an inevitable, now even-bigger right-sizing further into the future. For all their faults the PC's under Prentice were I think trying to make some progress on that front.
[...]
If the NDP finds a way to help the real, non-privileged working class in this province, they could win my support. That's not the party I know.


The Alberta NDP I know has been in power for about 12 hours now, so it seems remarkable you possess such a deep knowledge of their governance in such little time. If anybody should know how useless just looking at a party name or label is, it's us Albertans, who have had a fairly wide range of governments - competent to corrupt, increasing and decreasing spending, socially progressive and conservative - all wearing the same PC name.

The only party that pretended that there was something for free was the Wild Rose, who promised no increase in taxes, no decrease in services and a decrease in the deficit simultaneously. The NDP was quite up front about their plans for (modest) tax increases; I read the platform and it was very clear, but I also checked a handful of major news sites and they all reported the same. CBC even managed to mention it in their nine word headline.

If increasing the wages of the lowest paid workers and the taxes of the highest paid ones doesn't count as economic progress for the "true working class", then I'm not sure what you are looking for, other than not liking the name and colour of the party.

The most remarkable thing is - for all the freaking out people are doing - how moderate the NDP platform is. They call for small increases in taxes for high income citizens and corporations, and their big ticket spending promises are on more teachers to keep up with the growing student population, more funding for PSE to keep up with the demand for highly educated workers, and more long term care spaces to keep up with the growing elderly population. Asking the most well-off to pay a little bit more mostly to maintain the level of services. If the name weren't already taken, the platform could fairly be called something like "progressive conservative."

But yes, we do agree that first-past-the-post is a terrible system. I said it when FPTP produced election results I hated and I'll say it again now that it's produced a result I like. There's no way that the PC should have 4% more public support than the Wild Rose and half as many seats, nor that the Wild Rose should lose 10% of their public support and gain seats as a result.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 11:06 AM on May 6, 2015 [10 favorites]


I note with some amusement that the riding of Calgary-Klein voted for the NDP.

That's my riding; so named because the neighbourhood Klein is originally from is there, not because of our political identity. It's an interesting area of the city that has at times trended pretty liberal/lefty, and I think it was also one of the areas most solidly for Nenshi in his first election.

Speaking of which, this morning on the CBC Danielle Smith became the first pundit (I guess she is now?) to mention the fact that there was an ongoing demographic and ideological shift in the province; that the elections of Nenshi in Calgary and Don Iveson up in Edmonton were the first hallmarks of it; and that the right in general had failed to grasp both the implications and the speed of the spread (she says it was one of the things that caused her to want to unite the right, but that even she did not expect it to change things this fast). She also noted that a lot of people in the province might have just realized that they'd been living under defacto NDP government under the PC banner for the last decade anyways, and decided to go all in.

I'm in complete agreement with Homeboy Trouble (and so is Danielle, apparently); this NDP platform/budget is a very centrist/moderate thing that could easily have come under a PC banner. And Notley seems perceptive enough to take things slowly in terms of making changes. In 2012, the PCs went left to stave off the WR in the election; ever since they've been going right to try to absorb/blunt the WR and that left a lot of room on the centre and centre-left to be occupied.

Report from the ground: I did just go through downtown Calgary: As of right now, men in business suits appear to still be conducting business. Oil companies are open. No signs of any hammers, sickles, red flags, or socialist horde preparing to conduct purge. Situation is calm.
posted by nubs at 12:01 PM on May 6, 2015 [4 favorites]


ALL POWER TO THE SOVIETS FLAMES
posted by Chrysostom at 12:20 PM on May 6, 2015 [2 favorites]




Argh, hit post by mistake:

A Different Kind of Miracle on the Prairies
posted by nubs at 12:50 PM on May 6, 2015


From the comments, it sounds like the original version of the Vancouver Sun story said that Notley was the first woman elected Premier in Alberta. Oops...
posted by clawsoon at 1:19 PM on May 6, 2015


I would love to see (or build) a poll-by-poll map for some of the central and northwestern ridings that went NDP. Was the NDP an urban thing there, too? It's really clear when you look at Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, and Red Deer. I wonder if it's the same for Grande Prairie, High Prairie, Whitecourt, Slave Lake, etc.
posted by clawsoon at 1:28 PM on May 6, 2015


Looks like the NDP already fixed climate change! I think I saw a mammoth on the Yellowhead this morning.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:48 PM on May 6, 2015


That's a good question, clawsoon. There's been a long simmering urban vs. rural divide in the province, which some close analysis might just show is reflected as a NDP/WR thing now.


"Someone said it's like Albertastan now."
-Federal Justice Minister Peter MacKay after cabinet.
posted by nubs at 2:53 PM on May 6, 2015


I would love to see (or build) a poll-by-poll map for some of the central and northwestern ridings that went NDP. Was the NDP an urban thing there, too? It's really clear when you look at Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, and Red Deer. I wonder if it's the same for Grande Prairie, High Prairie, Whitecourt, Slave Lake, etc.

2015.abvote.ca does a nice job of agglomerating the data with links to view relevant maps. From a quick look at the "rural" NDP riding I know best, Banff-Cochrane, the NDP won 57, the WRP 25 and the PC 4 polling stations (57-25-4). Looking in more detail, Banff went 10-0-0 for an NDP shutout, while Canmore was 23-0-1. On the other hand, commuter town Cochrane went 11-20-2 for the WRP, while the remainder went 13-5-1.

In West Yellowhead, the overall was 35-14-13. The NDP won three of the four towns; Grand Cache 5-0-1, Jasper 6-0-0 and Hinton 15-3-1. But the WRP won Edson 1-9-3, while the remainder went 8-2-8, with the PC strength in the rural area surrounding Edson.

In a WR riding, Drayton Valley - Devon, the Wild Rose ran the table in Drayton Valley 0-15-0 while the NDP held Devon 14-0-0. The remainder went 7-34-15.

It's hard to build a coherent narrative from this small sample; NDP strength makes sense in national parks, but the Wild Rose is just as capable of picking up a town as the NDP are, and the rural areas aren't completely a Wild Rose stronghold.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 2:54 PM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


Rachel Notley, dragon-slayer, tax-cutter.
posted by No Robots at 2:57 PM on May 6, 2015


I added a couple of sheets to my spreadsheet with ridings where I found the NDP wins interesting, and using the official maps, tried to build a rural-"urban" divide based on compactness of polling areas. To simplify, I didn't include advance polls, since I'm not sure what area they're covering.

In this small sample of 3 ridings, I'm not seeing any particular rural-vs-"urban" divide for the NDP.

On preview, what Homeboy Trouble said.
posted by clawsoon at 2:59 PM on May 6, 2015


Oh man, thanks so much for linking to the strategists podcast, Homeboy Trouble. It's solid gold.
posted by figurant at 3:00 PM on May 6, 2015


Federal Justice Minister Peter MacKay after cabinet.

It's always amusing to remember how he was so utterly out-maneuvered by Stephen Harper back in the day. An intellectual light-weight without a shred of personal ethics. It's hard to believe MacKay is the successor to honorable, intelligent people like John Fraser, Joe Clark, Perrin Beatty, Barbara McDougall, and Kim Campbell.
posted by Nevin at 3:03 PM on May 6, 2015 [8 favorites]


clawsoon, I'm interested in the column "NDP vote-splitting win". Are you saying that only 11 of the NDP seats are owing to vote splitting? I would appreciate anything you have to say about this.
posted by No Robots at 3:12 PM on May 6, 2015


Alberta Loses Its Goddam Mind for the 4th Time: A Guide For the Perplexed
If you can get past the initial weirdness of the idea—that the land of Nickelback fell, Brokeback Mountain-style, for a bunch of tweedy Dippers—it's actually not as fucked up as it looks on paper.

For starters, no one has actually liked the PCs since King Ralph retired from his illustrious career of burning down the public sector and kicking homeless people. That was almost a decade ago. Ed Stelmach sparked the Wildrose counter-revolution because, for many Albertans, simply suggesting that maybe oil companies should pay the province marginally more in royalties is basically one step removed from Stalinism.
posted by nubs at 3:15 PM on May 6, 2015 [3 favorites]


Ed Stelmach sparked the Wildrose counter-revolution because, for many Albertans, simply suggesting that maybe oil companies should pay the province marginally more in royalties is basically one step removed from Stalinism.

This rings so fucking true to my ears. My anecdote.
posted by infinitewindow at 4:01 PM on May 6, 2015


Burgess adds to the confusion: Go home, says the nation to Alberta, you're drunk.
posted by chapps at 5:56 PM on May 6, 2015


Dear AB,

Welcome home. We missed you.

CA
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:07 PM on May 6, 2015 [1 favorite]


New thread.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:03 PM on May 6, 2015


Why is there a new thread?
posted by Nevin at 8:16 PM on May 6, 2015


clawsoon, I'm interested in the column "NDP vote-splitting win". Are you saying that only 11 of the NDP seats are owing to vote splitting? I would appreciate anything you have to say about this.

My column labels could be improved. :-) If you look at the totals at the bottom of the "Combined winner" column, you'll see how the election would've theoretically gone if all the right-wing votes had gone to one party and all the left-wing votes to the other party. It would've been 55-32 for the right-wing party, suggesting that 22 NDP seats or thereabouts came from vote splitting.

The "NDP vote-splitting win" column marks the ridings that were most dependent on vote splitting for their NDP wins. If a third of WRP votes had gone to the PCs, or vice versa, those 11 ridings would've been lost and the NDP would not have formed the government.
posted by clawsoon at 8:20 PM on May 6, 2015


Thanks, clawsoon. I'll be studying that.
posted by No Robots at 8:28 PM on May 6, 2015


In a WR riding, Drayton Valley - Devon, the Wild Rose ran the table in Drayton Valley 0-15-0 while the NDP held Devon 14-0-0.

Interesting. The NDP candidate in that riding was an Aboriginal from Maskwacis (formerly Hobbema). It looks like the Ermineskin and Louis Bull parts of the Four Nations reserve are in the Drayton Valley - Devon riding, though I don't know enough about the towns of Drayton Valley and Devon themselves to know whether this would explain anything. I noticed in the Wetaskiwin-Camrose riding (which I grew up in) that the parts of the Four Nations reserve in that riding (Samson and Montana) went overwhelmingly for the NDP. Like, 837 votes to 50 in favour of the NDP.

Since the reserves are mostly more-or-less rural, Aboriginal votes might have given the NDP more rural votes in northern and western Alberta than they would've gotten otherwise. Is it possible that a successful get-out-the-vote effort on the reserves swung some of those crucial northwestern ridings to the NDP?
posted by clawsoon at 8:43 PM on May 6, 2015


Um, I'm the one who did the new thread: I looked for one and didn't find this. None of my links connected to this post, either, probably because all the ones I used are in the comments, of course.

I thought it was weird as hell that there wasn't a preexisting thread. I'll contact the mods and get mine deleted.
posted by jrochest at 8:45 PM on May 6, 2015


No, don't get it deleted! There are lots of good contributions in that thread, too. Don't erase all those contributions.

Besides, this was supposed to be more of a pre-election thread. :-)
posted by clawsoon at 8:51 PM on May 6, 2015 [2 favorites]


Yeah, I think the two can co-exist just fine; this one is the background on the election and election night, and the new one is the "now what" thread.
posted by nubs at 8:53 PM on May 6, 2015


Does anyone have a good analysis (or links to good analysis) of why it was the NDP and not the Liberals who won?

The liberals didn't run a full slate of candidates, the NDP did.
posted by furtive at 10:10 PM on May 6, 2015


furtive: That was a symptom, not a cause. The Liberals didn't run a full slate mostly because they were in organizational and financial shambles.
posted by whittaker at 2:10 PM on May 8, 2015


« Older The struggle is real   |   I go head first Acknowledging with a new secret... Newer »


This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments