Snowball in Hell
December 24, 2015 12:14 AM Subscribe
The forecast low in Central Park today is expected to match its previous record high from Christmas Eve of 1996 of 63°F / 17°C. By the afternoon, temperatures should reach the low 70s (22°C), shattering the record by 10 degrees F.
With some help from an El Niño, 2015 is expected to be the warmest year ever recorded. November was very nearly a full 1°C above 20th century averages; January through November was 0.25C warmer than the same period last year. Some of the most remarkable warming last month was far away from the Pacific, however: in the Arctic temperatures are 4 to 10 degrees C (7 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.
With some help from an El Niño, 2015 is expected to be the warmest year ever recorded. November was very nearly a full 1°C above 20th century averages; January through November was 0.25C warmer than the same period last year. Some of the most remarkable warming last month was far away from the Pacific, however: in the Arctic temperatures are 4 to 10 degrees C (7 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal.
"In NYC, it's shaping up to be the most abnormally warm month ever recorded, by a lot—amazing 14 degrees above normal."
posted by kliuless at 12:41 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by kliuless at 12:41 AM on December 24, 2015
Wherefore art thou, climate change deniers?
posted by axiom at 1:05 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by axiom at 1:05 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Wow. The forecast minimum here in Sydney is 19 C or 66 F, which is only 2 degrees warmer than New York!
posted by other barry at 1:17 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by other barry at 1:17 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
14C forecast in London for Christmas Day. People have been sitting outside cafes all week.
The press are just biding their time for when we get a cold snap in the new year, and the headlines will be paraphrases of 'WHERE'S YOUR STUPID WARMING NOW, EH? EH?' (see Drinky Die's link).
posted by colie at 1:34 AM on December 24, 2015 [5 favorites]
The press are just biding their time for when we get a cold snap in the new year, and the headlines will be paraphrases of 'WHERE'S YOUR STUPID WARMING NOW, EH? EH?' (see Drinky Die's link).
posted by colie at 1:34 AM on December 24, 2015 [5 favorites]
For no good reason I booked a mid-January east coast vacation. After I did that I looked at weather records for 2014. It was damn cold in 2014. I went out and bought lots of merino wool and polartec. Now, it looks like it'll be cold but not damn cold. Global warming doesn't seem to mean that any place gets uniformly warmer. Global warming seems to mean that the average temperature rises a bit and the variability spikes.
posted by rdr at 1:39 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by rdr at 1:39 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Sigh. The signature of climate change is not warmer temperatures in a given region in a given continent, it is more variance from the historic mean.
Pointing at a warmer winter in [this place][this year] as evidence (which should not be fucking necessary at this point, but most people are idiots, sure, OK) is counterproductive, because the increase of boundary-violating energy in the climactic system could mean (El Nino notwithstanding) that it might well be stupid cold there next time 'round, which would give fuel to the deniers.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 2:12 AM on December 24, 2015 [51 favorites]
Pointing at a warmer winter in [this place][this year] as evidence (which should not be fucking necessary at this point, but most people are idiots, sure, OK) is counterproductive, because the increase of boundary-violating energy in the climactic system could mean (El Nino notwithstanding) that it might well be stupid cold there next time 'round, which would give fuel to the deniers.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 2:12 AM on December 24, 2015 [51 favorites]
Wherefore art thou, climate change deniers?
"Wherefore" means "why". Just sayin'.
Elizabethan English Pedant Man...awaaaaaaaaay!
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 2:40 AM on December 24, 2015 [57 favorites]
"Wherefore" means "why". Just sayin'.
Elizabethan English Pedant Man...awaaaaaaaaay!
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 2:40 AM on December 24, 2015 [57 favorites]
It's still a good question. Perhaps a better question.
posted by Grangousier at 2:42 AM on December 24, 2015 [45 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 2:42 AM on December 24, 2015 [45 favorites]
I'm often in Amsterdam this time of year, and the temperatures are usually bitingly cold (not helped by the high humidity). But so far this trip I haven't had to wear gloves while riding my bike, I'm perfectly comfortable without a hat, and my long underwear is still in my suitcase.
posted by antinomia at 2:44 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by antinomia at 2:44 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Last year on New Year's Eve we got something like 30 cm of snow overnight, the most in decades. This year there's an overnight low of 9°C on Christmas Eve.
Exciting times we live in.
posted by DoctorFedora at 3:46 AM on December 24, 2015
Exciting times we live in.
posted by DoctorFedora at 3:46 AM on December 24, 2015
I agree with STWChicken.. Ironic how, when the deniers point to a bit of a cold spell we tell them that Climate Change can't be disputed by a bit of cold air, but when we get a warm spell we do the exact same thing...
That said, I'm sitting in my chair a mile away from center of Hell, and the temperature in Hell was 60 degrees yesterday. (and, there's not a snowball to be found, the title of this FPP is a bit misleading!)
posted by HuronBob at 3:49 AM on December 24, 2015 [4 favorites]
That said, I'm sitting in my chair a mile away from center of Hell, and the temperature in Hell was 60 degrees yesterday. (and, there's not a snowball to be found, the title of this FPP is a bit misleading!)
posted by HuronBob at 3:49 AM on December 24, 2015 [4 favorites]
Andy Borowitz humor, good to keep bookmarked for forwarding during the next cold snap.
posted by sidereal at 4:07 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by sidereal at 4:07 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Wherefore art thou, climate change deniers?
They're probably all hunkering down in the same holes they ran to when the summer heat waves began.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:25 AM on December 24, 2015
They're probably all hunkering down in the same holes they ran to when the summer heat waves began.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:25 AM on December 24, 2015
At least you're not getting xmas eve tornados like in Mississippi. There were 20 reported.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:32 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:32 AM on December 24, 2015
The weather this Christmas Eve will be the same it was on July 4.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:52 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:52 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
How weird is it that the entire eastern seaboard is having totally normal weather and yet New York is all balmy?
posted by indubitable at 4:54 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by indubitable at 4:54 AM on December 24, 2015
I'm fairly certain most of the Eastern seaboard is balmy today.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:55 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:55 AM on December 24, 2015
It isn't normal in central NC. It's going to be about the same temp as NYC.
posted by mfu at 4:56 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by mfu at 4:56 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
It's going to be 75 here in central NC. It ought to be in the 40s!
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:11 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:11 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
Georgia reporting in. We're having torrential thunderstorms with a side of flash flood watch.
posted by Fleebnork at 5:13 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Fleebnork at 5:13 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
Here in Baltimore it's like Hawaii - warm, windy, rainy.
Mele Kalikimaka!
posted by sidereal at 5:15 AM on December 24, 2015 [4 favorites]
Mele Kalikimaka!
posted by sidereal at 5:15 AM on December 24, 2015 [4 favorites]
Yeah, I've got my family visiting me in NYC for Christmas this year, and this could almost be pleasant (if not a little surprising) if it weren't for all the rain.
posted by Navelgazer at 5:17 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by Navelgazer at 5:17 AM on December 24, 2015
It's forecasted to be 70 degrees here in southern New Hampshire today.
I feel quite comfortable referring to this and exceptionally cold winters, as evidence of climate change. Not global warming, but climate change. The climatic extremes are more extreme and swinging more broadly. Storms are occurring more intensely and out of season. Things are changing at a rate wildlife and plants can't cope with our respond to from year to year - or do you think it's normal and unconcerning for the crocus bulbs to be pushing out of the New Hampshire soil in December?
It's good to recognize that this is an El niño year, and that that exacerbates and changes weather patterns. It's also good to be cognizant of weather patterns in context globally and over a few years. This year is aberrantly warm because of El Niño, but you can't blame the past several years of aberrant warmth and strong storms and drought and polar vortices and wildfires on that. The earth's climate is changing, and this year, those changes were intensified.
Caution. It is vitally important not to make connections.
posted by ChuraChura at 5:20 AM on December 24, 2015 [20 favorites]
I feel quite comfortable referring to this and exceptionally cold winters, as evidence of climate change. Not global warming, but climate change. The climatic extremes are more extreme and swinging more broadly. Storms are occurring more intensely and out of season. Things are changing at a rate wildlife and plants can't cope with our respond to from year to year - or do you think it's normal and unconcerning for the crocus bulbs to be pushing out of the New Hampshire soil in December?
It's good to recognize that this is an El niño year, and that that exacerbates and changes weather patterns. It's also good to be cognizant of weather patterns in context globally and over a few years. This year is aberrantly warm because of El Niño, but you can't blame the past several years of aberrant warmth and strong storms and drought and polar vortices and wildfires on that. The earth's climate is changing, and this year, those changes were intensified.
Caution. It is vitally important not to make connections.
posted by ChuraChura at 5:20 AM on December 24, 2015 [20 favorites]
My kids were playing basketball outside yesterday. That's not normal Nova Scotia activity for late December. We often have mild starts to winter, and being on the ocean saves us from the really deep freezes, but double-digits Celcius is just wrong.
It's not that it's warmer than usual. For at least a decade our weather has been stranger than normal, very different from decades past.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:21 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
It's not that it's warmer than usual. For at least a decade our weather has been stranger than normal, very different from decades past.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:21 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Checking in from Kingston, Ontario and yeah, it's definitely warmer this Christmas Eve than last year's. It's not even 9 am and we're sitting at 52F. I personally don't mind a green Christmas as it reminds me of pretty much every Christmas I had as a kid in the South, but my Canadian husband is having kittens about it.
posted by Kitteh at 5:24 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by Kitteh at 5:24 AM on December 24, 2015
It's in the 20s here and supposed to be in the single digits within a few days, but the overall forecast this year is for another low snowpack and more precipitation as rain rather than snow. If that turns out to be true, that will mean another drought summer in the west and potentially a fire season even longer and more intense than this year's.
I still know some people who are climate change deniers, but it is harder and harder for them to find creative ways to wish away how different the winters are than just a couple of decades ago, and the very real world impacts this is having on the landscape and on industries like farming.
The articles I've seen about the heatwave in NYC have just focused on the immediate warmth but not on other impacts -- obviously mountain snowpacks are not such an issue in the east, but there will be other issues such as the warm winter causing higher survival rates for insects or issues for plants that need a period of intense cold, say.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:31 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
I still know some people who are climate change deniers, but it is harder and harder for them to find creative ways to wish away how different the winters are than just a couple of decades ago, and the very real world impacts this is having on the landscape and on industries like farming.
The articles I've seen about the heatwave in NYC have just focused on the immediate warmth but not on other impacts -- obviously mountain snowpacks are not such an issue in the east, but there will be other issues such as the warm winter causing higher survival rates for insects or issues for plants that need a period of intense cold, say.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:31 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
I'm in Boston and our forecast high for today is 70 F.
Confession: I am really enjoying the weather right now. After last winter -- last fucking winter -- this is glorious. (Yeah, yeah, unnatural, ski slopes going under, global climate change. I know. I know these things are all bad. But I'm not walking through 6' snowbanks to get to the Post Office so I am going to enjoy the hell of out this while it lasts.)
posted by pie ninja at 5:33 AM on December 24, 2015 [15 favorites]
Confession: I am really enjoying the weather right now. After last winter -- last fucking winter -- this is glorious. (Yeah, yeah, unnatural, ski slopes going under, global climate change. I know. I know these things are all bad. But I'm not walking through 6' snowbanks to get to the Post Office so I am going to enjoy the hell of out this while it lasts.)
posted by pie ninja at 5:33 AM on December 24, 2015 [15 favorites]
As the OP points out, this is climate change pushed by the 2015-16 El Niño.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:34 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:34 AM on December 24, 2015
i'm dreaming of a white christmas ...
posted by pyramid termite at 5:34 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by pyramid termite at 5:34 AM on December 24, 2015
Everybody relax - Matthew McConaughey found a black hole.
posted by davebush at 5:34 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by davebush at 5:34 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
*Breathes into paper bag, chants "weather is not climate... Weather is not climate..." Gives up, hyperventilates*
This shit is adding up, and fast. Googling real estate opportunities in the Northwest Territories & Yukon.
posted by Devils Rancher at 5:37 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
This shit is adding up, and fast. Googling real estate opportunities in the Northwest Territories & Yukon.
posted by Devils Rancher at 5:37 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
My friends who are parents are avoiding the topic of the weather like the plague, and if it comes up in conversation, more than one has started to cry. I think it FEELS like proof of Global Warming being real and real bad, coming so close on the heels of the Paris talks. I mean, I follow climate change science pretty closely, but I've been uneasy all fall because the temperatures make it seem so real and immediate even though I know it's largely El Niño (in a warmer world) AND I've been seeing real, dire signs for years, like crop changes and bulbs coming up a month early and problems with apple crops. Having this heat hanging over me day after day after day just FEELS like a very ominous warning.
The couple of Tea Party Republicans who have dared to make snide Global Warming comments in my FB feed have been RAPIDLY and NOISILY shouted down by parents -- not angry partisan parents, but parents who are freaking the fuck out about the children's future. You can sense the change in the topic. I wonder if, looking back, we'll see this as the year climate change really starts to become an issue "soccer moms" are willing to get very upset about and take it to the voting booth.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:57 AM on December 24, 2015 [27 favorites]
The couple of Tea Party Republicans who have dared to make snide Global Warming comments in my FB feed have been RAPIDLY and NOISILY shouted down by parents -- not angry partisan parents, but parents who are freaking the fuck out about the children's future. You can sense the change in the topic. I wonder if, looking back, we'll see this as the year climate change really starts to become an issue "soccer moms" are willing to get very upset about and take it to the voting booth.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:57 AM on December 24, 2015 [27 favorites]
I would love to see some study done that measures somehow the exacerbation of ailments due to extreme weather changes.
in Philly, we went from 45 to 72 in a few days. It's going to drop down again I guess next week?
Each one of these dramatic changes usually leads to me sitting on the couch at 4 am, really not that interested in watching Sex in the City but it's distracting when the pain hits and I become this pitiful writhing mass.
Like people with arthritis? The weather changes suck balls.
posted by angrycat at 6:00 AM on December 24, 2015
in Philly, we went from 45 to 72 in a few days. It's going to drop down again I guess next week?
Each one of these dramatic changes usually leads to me sitting on the couch at 4 am, really not that interested in watching Sex in the City but it's distracting when the pain hits and I become this pitiful writhing mass.
Like people with arthritis? The weather changes suck balls.
posted by angrycat at 6:00 AM on December 24, 2015
Here in Indiana yesterday, we had thunderstorms. Freaking deluge of rain with thunder and lightning. Oh, and a tornado watch for most of the afternoon and evening.
I'll take all that over snow and sub-zero temps, any day.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:02 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
I'll take all that over snow and sub-zero temps, any day.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:02 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
I moved to NYC after a lifetime of California, and I was fully expecting to have to deal with snow, and yet here we are. I was even going to be contrary and go to the beach on Christmas Day even if it meant standing around in some freezing-ass wind and staring at gray water. For me this is all business as usual-- Christmas is always sunny and 70, even in San Francisco-- but you can tell everyone around me is gradually freaking out more and more.
posted by blnkfrnk at 6:07 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by blnkfrnk at 6:07 AM on December 24, 2015
It's supposed to be in the mid-40s here in Michigan, so I hope all you folks with 70-degree weather enjoy a cold beer on a hot Christmas morning for me.
posted by Turkey Glue at 6:07 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Turkey Glue at 6:07 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Checking in from Thunder Bay, Ontario -- currently raining, 32 degrees F/0 Celsius, with dirty snow melting into slush as of this post.
Not exactly a typical Christmas scene here at the Boreal 48th (or so) parallel ...
posted by milnews.ca at 6:16 AM on December 24, 2015
Not exactly a typical Christmas scene here at the Boreal 48th (or so) parallel ...
posted by milnews.ca at 6:16 AM on December 24, 2015
This is that feeling of cosmic dread they kept talking about in the Lovecraft novels.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Gettin' it while I can, folks. Seriously. I don't know if this boat can be turned around ... or even salvaged.
.
posted by Sheydem-tants at 6:23 AM on December 24, 2015
.
posted by Sheydem-tants at 6:23 AM on December 24, 2015
My grandchildren will look at photos of snow and wonder what the white stuff is.
posted by tommasz at 6:25 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by tommasz at 6:25 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
Confession: I am really enjoying the weather right now. After last winter -- last fucking winter -- this is glorious.
You Bostonians deserve it. I'm a few hours north of you in Portland, Maine, and I felt bad for you last year, and we got like 130 inches ourselves. You guys got like another 10-15 inches on top of that I think? Plus a lot more population density.
I'm hoping for a record snowless winter this year.
posted by mayonnaises at 6:28 AM on December 24, 2015
You Bostonians deserve it. I'm a few hours north of you in Portland, Maine, and I felt bad for you last year, and we got like 130 inches ourselves. You guys got like another 10-15 inches on top of that I think? Plus a lot more population density.
I'm hoping for a record snowless winter this year.
posted by mayonnaises at 6:28 AM on December 24, 2015
I'm hoping for a record snowless winter this year.
Despite our monsoon conditions in Georgia right now, January is predicted to be colder than usual, with higher chance of precipitation. We might be looking at another snowpocalypse or two.
posted by Fleebnork at 6:33 AM on December 24, 2015
Despite our monsoon conditions in Georgia right now, January is predicted to be colder than usual, with higher chance of precipitation. We might be looking at another snowpocalypse or two.
posted by Fleebnork at 6:33 AM on December 24, 2015
Philly here - it's supposed to be low 70s today, plenty of rain, it feels very humid. It's been unseasonably warm on and off for while, with sunshine - plenty of sitting outside cafes, at least until the sun goes down. Flowers are blooming again, and I picked the last cherry toms a couple of weeks ago.
posted by carter at 6:34 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by carter at 6:34 AM on December 24, 2015
I thought the preferred term was climate change over global warming because the actual local changes could vary so much and could actually be cooler. Saying "ha, see the global warming now!" seems a bit counterproductive to that.
posted by smackfu at 6:38 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by smackfu at 6:38 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
In the Twin Cities there is a puny inch or so of snow on the ground. It fell yesterday afer switching over from rain in the morning. Two days ago it was pouring rain . I've lived in Minnesota most of my life and don't remember rain in December. November rain is unusual enough.
Do you need some time...on your own? Do you need some time...all alone?
I'm sorry
posted by Elly Vortex at 6:39 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]
Do you need some time...on your own? Do you need some time...all alone?
I'm sorry
posted by Elly Vortex at 6:39 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]
To me it's been a year of craziness and extremes in temperatures.
I grew up in Chennai, India and now live in Boston, MA.
After experiencing that crazy extreme winter in Boston at the beginning of the year, I heard about summer temperatures in Chennai breaking all previous records. Then I went home over the end of November and the beginning of December and we had record-breaking rainfall (over three times the usual amount) leading to widespread flooding. Then I get back to Boston to find record-breaking winter highs. I'm getting slightly tired of hearing the word "record-breaking". Frankly, if global warming is all about the usual weather patterns being broken and extremes becoming more likely, I believe it!
posted by peacheater at 6:46 AM on December 24, 2015 [6 favorites]
I grew up in Chennai, India and now live in Boston, MA.
After experiencing that crazy extreme winter in Boston at the beginning of the year, I heard about summer temperatures in Chennai breaking all previous records. Then I went home over the end of November and the beginning of December and we had record-breaking rainfall (over three times the usual amount) leading to widespread flooding. Then I get back to Boston to find record-breaking winter highs. I'm getting slightly tired of hearing the word "record-breaking". Frankly, if global warming is all about the usual weather patterns being broken and extremes becoming more likely, I believe it!
posted by peacheater at 6:46 AM on December 24, 2015 [6 favorites]
Drinky Die:That is the most infuriating website I've ever visited and I come here every day.If global warming is fake why is it warm?
posted by ob1quixote at 6:50 AM on December 24, 2015 [14 favorites]
I did not move to Yankeeland for this shit.
Also when the weather patterns finally break and we get seasonably-frozen wind moving over a Lake Erie that is still far above freezing, the lake effect belt is going to get *pounded*.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:06 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Also when the weather patterns finally break and we get seasonably-frozen wind moving over a Lake Erie that is still far above freezing, the lake effect belt is going to get *pounded*.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:06 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
And meanwhile, to tail off the end of a record drought year in the Pacific Northwest, we're on track to set new precipitation records for December, with snow pack as much as 150% of normal.
posted by wotsac at 7:14 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by wotsac at 7:14 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
It's supposed to be normal levels of cold right after Christmas.
posted by smackfu at 7:14 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by smackfu at 7:14 AM on December 24, 2015
I listened to 'Jars of Clay' in my shorts yesterday.
posted by clavdivs at 7:15 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by clavdivs at 7:15 AM on December 24, 2015
Rochester, NY here. Other than maybe 2" at the very end of November (which melted right away) we have not gotten any measurable snow this season so far.
The snow we have gotten, maybe twice, is the little wispy flakes that you can barely see.
* * * * * * *
* * * * * * *
* * * * * * *
(this is the snow we're not getting.)
posted by Lucinda at 7:27 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
The snow we have gotten, maybe twice, is the little wispy flakes that you can barely see.
* * * * * * *
* * * * * * *
* * * * * * *
(this is the snow we're not getting.)
posted by Lucinda at 7:27 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
Snowball in Hell
Apropos of literally nothing at all, one of these in one of these would be disgusting, come to think of it. And I kind of wish I hadn't. Thought of it.
posted by Grangousier at 7:30 AM on December 24, 2015
Apropos of literally nothing at all, one of these in one of these would be disgusting, come to think of it. And I kind of wish I hadn't. Thought of it.
posted by Grangousier at 7:30 AM on December 24, 2015
7-Year-Old Mississippi Boy Among Those Killed in Devastating Weather
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:30 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:30 AM on December 24, 2015
Oh, and more on track: springlike conditions in midwinter with a cold snap possible before the actual spring is an agricultural disaster waiting to happen, isn't it?
posted by Grangousier at 7:31 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 7:31 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
Meanwhile, Dark Sky is telling me that on Monday the low will be 27 and the high 47.
In Los Angeles.
posted by Lyn Never at 7:46 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
In Los Angeles.
posted by Lyn Never at 7:46 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
I moved from NYC to Hawaii this summer and was looking forward to being all smug with my warm, sunny xmas weather when I FaceTimed my family. Now I have to find something else to be smug about.
posted by melissasaurus at 7:50 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by melissasaurus at 7:50 AM on December 24, 2015
The big problem is that the jet streams, and particularly the circumpolar vortex, are not hewing to their historically stable patterns. Right now it's the monster el Nino picking up Gulf heat and moisture and sweeping it over the eastern seabord, but in 2014 it was the polar vortex dipping south and bringing air that usually stays over the Arctic Ocean to places like New Orleans.
But that's just the atmostphere. Imagine the fun we'll have when the great ocean conveyor currents like the Gulf Stream get disrupted. Wheeeee!
posted by Bringer Tom at 7:53 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]
But that's just the atmostphere. Imagine the fun we'll have when the great ocean conveyor currents like the Gulf Stream get disrupted. Wheeeee!
posted by Bringer Tom at 7:53 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]
In Berlin it's a steady 12*C, and the Xmas markets have been a bit ... wrong - like how're you supposed to snuggle over your Gluehwein if you're not even wearing gloves?
posted by runincircles at 7:54 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by runincircles at 7:54 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Here in Virginia the spring peepers are peeping and the daffodils are sprouting.
I really love how they ran out of colors on the temperature anomaly chart; white either means normal or +35 degrees F.
posted by peeedro at 7:54 AM on December 24, 2015
I really love how they ran out of colors on the temperature anomaly chart; white either means normal or +35 degrees F.
posted by peeedro at 7:54 AM on December 24, 2015
I look forward to the future where Christmastime is that beautiful part of the year where it is almost cool enough to take a walk outside without your special heat-reflecting silver hazmat suit.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:57 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:57 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
I'm in Wisconsin, about an hour and a half east of the Twin Cities. This will be my second winter after living in SoCal all my life, so I'm not totally sure what "normal" is yet, but it's been way warmer than last year and what weather websites tell me is the average for this time of year. We've had some snow here and there, but nothing sticking more than a day or so, while last year we had snow on the ground from the first week of November through March. There's a bit of snow on the ground now from the same system Elly Vortex mentioned, which looks like it might last - the forecast has us hitting 35 tomorrow, but that's the only day above freezing in the 10-day outlook. Looks like we'll get some snow reinforcements after Christmas, and the temps will go down to their normal spots with highs around 20.
A couple things are kind of annoying with it not being down to normal cold levels. First, since it's been right around freezing when we have gotten snow, it basically turns to slush instantly. Last year, things didn't melt until spring, so we didn't really have ice on the roads or any muckiness all winter. So, it was cold, but it want also gross like it has been this year. Second, my town has a bunch of outdoor skate rinks that were supposed to open last weekend, but they can't really even flood the rinks until the ground is frozen so it'll be a while yet before they can open them. I was hoping to sort of teachoice myself to play hockey, but no luck yet.
posted by LionIndex at 8:01 AM on December 24, 2015
A couple things are kind of annoying with it not being down to normal cold levels. First, since it's been right around freezing when we have gotten snow, it basically turns to slush instantly. Last year, things didn't melt until spring, so we didn't really have ice on the roads or any muckiness all winter. So, it was cold, but it want also gross like it has been this year. Second, my town has a bunch of outdoor skate rinks that were supposed to open last weekend, but they can't really even flood the rinks until the ground is frozen so it'll be a while yet before they can open them. I was hoping to sort of teachoice myself to play hockey, but no luck yet.
posted by LionIndex at 8:01 AM on December 24, 2015
Gettin' it while I can, folks. Seriously. I don't know if this boat can be turned around ... or even salvaged.
I'm certainly no expert, but I follow climate change pretty closely, and the best the experts and scientists are hoping for is a 2 degree C warming. That would mean a greatly changed climate, but still livable (except, perhaps, for the hottest parts of the planet.) I won't offer any opinions on whether warming over and above that will occur (I tend to think yes, because we would need to overthrow capitalism, and... yeah.)
posted by Automocar at 8:08 AM on December 24, 2015
I'm certainly no expert, but I follow climate change pretty closely, and the best the experts and scientists are hoping for is a 2 degree C warming. That would mean a greatly changed climate, but still livable (except, perhaps, for the hottest parts of the planet.) I won't offer any opinions on whether warming over and above that will occur (I tend to think yes, because we would need to overthrow capitalism, and... yeah.)
posted by Automocar at 8:08 AM on December 24, 2015
I tend not to think that all is lost, but I certainly tend to think that everything between the tropics of cancer and capricorn will be totally uninhabitable by the end of the century, and that the ensuing population displacement will cause unbelievable chaos and suffering. Also, the oceans may end up being essentially poison, so coastlines are probably not a great place to be. I'm personally keeping an eye out for cheap land in central Ellesmere Island.
Anyway, Merry Christmas!
posted by mrjohnmuller at 8:20 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
Anyway, Merry Christmas!
posted by mrjohnmuller at 8:20 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
The predictions are at least 4C and probably 6C warming, Automocar. If you're seeing 2C, you're seeing the commercial media prediction, which — as always — is a pacifying lie intended to minimize our demand for change. If the general public comprehended what we are going to experience over the next forty years, there would be rioting in the streets and billionaire oil barons swinging from lamp posts. Rupert Murdoch & friends don't want to see such things.
posted by five fresh fish at 8:22 AM on December 24, 2015 [8 favorites]
posted by five fresh fish at 8:22 AM on December 24, 2015 [8 favorites]
The predictions are at least 4C and probably 6C warming, Automocar.
Where are you seeing this? Serious question. A good friend has a degree in a field related to this and pays a lot of attention to this (I get a lot of my info from him) and he is nowhere near that pessimistic. 4-6C? That would pretty much spell the end of industrialized human civilization.
posted by Automocar at 8:38 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Where are you seeing this? Serious question. A good friend has a degree in a field related to this and pays a lot of attention to this (I get a lot of my info from him) and he is nowhere near that pessimistic. 4-6C? That would pretty much spell the end of industrialized human civilization.
posted by Automocar at 8:38 AM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
Meanwhile, Dark Sky is telling me that on Monday the low will be 27 and the high 47.
In Los Angeles.
I don't have access to darksky but I can look at forecast.io which uses the same data and they're saying 56 -39 in los angeles which is cooler than normal but not record setting. Now if you're in the mountains, like say Wrightwood, it will be absurdly cold.
posted by rdr at 9:09 AM on December 24, 2015
In Los Angeles.
I don't have access to darksky but I can look at forecast.io which uses the same data and they're saying 56 -39 in los angeles which is cooler than normal but not record setting. Now if you're in the mountains, like say Wrightwood, it will be absurdly cold.
posted by rdr at 9:09 AM on December 24, 2015
Yeah, I'm on the corner of Sunset and Alvarado, and the lowest DarkSky says it's going to get all week is 36 on Sunday.
Not looking forward to a week where the hottest it gets is 63 degrees :-(
posted by sideshow at 9:23 AM on December 24, 2015
Not looking forward to a week where the hottest it gets is 63 degrees :-(
posted by sideshow at 9:23 AM on December 24, 2015
I fucking hate this weather and I want to set fires about it. It goes down to the low 50s-high 40s at night, which is of course not quite cold enough for the building's heat to turn on, and then the daytime temps are not warm enough to banish the damp icy chill from my house, and even with space heaters my fucking piece of shit worthless spine is trying to actively murder me and QUITE FUCKING FRANKLY the only way I can stay warm enough is gENOCIDE ALL MUST PERISH
angriest hiss
posted by poffin boffin at 9:27 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
angriest hiss
posted by poffin boffin at 9:27 AM on December 24, 2015 [3 favorites]
pac-north-west reporting ...
after a few weeks of heavy rain and rather unprecedentedly consistent wild wind, we are having what seems to be statistically normal early winter weather. Rain at sea level, snow in the mountains. The skiers are loving it ...
posted by philip-random at 9:40 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
after a few weeks of heavy rain and rather unprecedentedly consistent wild wind, we are having what seems to be statistically normal early winter weather. Rain at sea level, snow in the mountains. The skiers are loving it ...
posted by philip-random at 9:40 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
16c in Ottawa today. I just opened the windows to air the house out.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:52 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:52 AM on December 24, 2015
Haha, someone at my family party just mentioned how much they were enjoying the unseasonable warmth and everyone looked awkward, wouldn't look at him, and then changed the subject. New conversational taboo: Enjoying climate change.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:13 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:13 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]
Automocar: James Hansen, Kevin Anderson, news out of this past summit, New Scientist reports, etc. Google it: 4–6C is the expectation now.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:36 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by five fresh fish at 10:36 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
and it might snow in the Bay Area tonight. nothing to see here!! move along...
posted by supermedusa at 10:43 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by supermedusa at 10:43 AM on December 24, 2015
New conversational taboo: Enjoying climate change.
Huh, no one in my family objects to enjoying warmer weather. You do have to precede it by the ritual "I know climate change is bad but" and then you're allowed to glory in a warm December. (It is bad, but . . . this weather is actually very pleasant.)
posted by jeather at 10:49 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
Huh, no one in my family objects to enjoying warmer weather. You do have to precede it by the ritual "I know climate change is bad but" and then you're allowed to glory in a warm December. (It is bad, but . . . this weather is actually very pleasant.)
posted by jeather at 10:49 AM on December 24, 2015 [1 favorite]
200 cm base at Seymour, one of the three local mountains just north of Vancouver, BC. 4WD or chains were required yesterday to access the mountain due to heavy snow. There's rumours of snow for the city, there's a potential for a White Christmas. Always funny when we have snow and it's shorts weather back east.
posted by crazycanuck at 10:59 AM on December 24, 2015
posted by crazycanuck at 10:59 AM on December 24, 2015
I've been watching the customers at the bait store/hunting supply/gas station I work at slowly get more and more worried as the weird winter this year wrecks all their hunting and fishing and outdoors stuff. First, the winter started late and stays warmer than it should in November, which pleased the farmers, but upset the deer hunters, who rely in part on cold temps to help preserve dead deer. They were in many cases just not heading out because a dead deer in 65 degree weather goes bad pretty quick, and the warmer weather keeps the deer bedded down. Bad hunting for them this year. Now, the winter has finally kinda made it to normal late december, but until the last couple of weeks any below freezing temps we had were followed by days of above freezing, and this has crippled the main winter respite of the rural Minnesotan, ice fishing. The ice is still risky where it exists, and the various opulent to shitty ice houses they own might not see use this year at all. Snowmobiling is gross in slush and skiers don't have any snow to speak of. People are actively worried and mentioning it to me without prompting. I haven't heard the spectre of global warming raised yet, but even in this super conservative area people are noticing something is up, even if it's just self interest.
Anyway, it'll be weird when the ice fishing lobby becomes a big climate change crusader. These people do not joke about ice fishing.
posted by neonrev at 11:17 AM on December 24, 2015 [10 favorites]
Anyway, it'll be weird when the ice fishing lobby becomes a big climate change crusader. These people do not joke about ice fishing.
posted by neonrev at 11:17 AM on December 24, 2015 [10 favorites]
> ice fishing lobby
It was good to hear rural Coloradans concerned about climate change in a This American Life storylast year, oh, crap, 2 1/2 years ago. iSeeChange still going strong!.
posted by morganw at 1:06 PM on December 24, 2015
It was good to hear rural Coloradans concerned about climate change in a This American Life story
posted by morganw at 1:06 PM on December 24, 2015
Sigh. The signature of climate change is not warmer temperatures in a given region in a given continent, it is more variance from the historic mean.
Sigh.
The sign of global warming is average temperatures over an extended period of time increasing over a supermajority of the planet. The variance from the mean is cause both by the warming *and* by the extra energy.
But it being warm in the Eastern and Central US has little to do with global warming and everything to do with the effect of an El Niño event on the US, which results in very warm temperatures there and much cooler and wetter weather on the West coast, and more rain in the South.
This pattern is well known to meteorology, which is why the extended range outlooks called for just this to be happening. It may be even warmer because of global warming, but the fact that this year is proving to be a very warm one in the Central/Eastern North American regions and rather cool and wet in the West is well known. And the next time an El Niño peak happens, it'll be another warm winter.
After 2013-2014? Just enjoy it.
posted by eriko at 3:36 PM on December 24, 2015
Sigh.
The sign of global warming is average temperatures over an extended period of time increasing over a supermajority of the planet. The variance from the mean is cause both by the warming *and* by the extra energy.
But it being warm in the Eastern and Central US has little to do with global warming and everything to do with the effect of an El Niño event on the US, which results in very warm temperatures there and much cooler and wetter weather on the West coast, and more rain in the South.
This pattern is well known to meteorology, which is why the extended range outlooks called for just this to be happening. It may be even warmer because of global warming, but the fact that this year is proving to be a very warm one in the Central/Eastern North American regions and rather cool and wet in the West is well known. And the next time an El Niño peak happens, it'll be another warm winter.
After 2013-2014? Just enjoy it.
posted by eriko at 3:36 PM on December 24, 2015
The sign of global warming is average temperatures over an extended period of time increasing over a supermajority of the planet.
Yes, well, sure, kinda, tautologically. But what I was talking about by using the word 'sign' is Stuff Ordinary People Might Be Able To Notice. Incremental average temperature increases over the entirety of the planetary surface isn't that, even if it is indeed what's happening.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:45 PM on December 24, 2015
Yes, well, sure, kinda, tautologically. But what I was talking about by using the word 'sign' is Stuff Ordinary People Might Be Able To Notice. Incremental average temperature increases over the entirety of the planetary surface isn't that, even if it is indeed what's happening.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:45 PM on December 24, 2015
The everyday ordinary-people word that will really sum up the simultaneous increase in temperature mean and variance is heteroscedastic.
posted by tss at 4:22 PM on December 24, 2015 [6 favorites]
posted by tss at 4:22 PM on December 24, 2015 [6 favorites]
I read an interesting article in the New Scientist around last year, where they interviewed a dozen or so prominent climate scientists and said, "Off-the-record, do you think things are really worse or better than the official science says?" They all said that things were likely worse, perhaps much worse. Consensus was that everyone tends to report the minimum possible results that they can iron-clad justify. Several pointed out that there had been a recent confluence of bad reports - clathrates, glacial coverage and temperate records - that seemed to confirm everyone's worst - but not unreasonable! - fears.
So - and I hate to be the bearer of bad news - a possible if unlikely hypothesis is that we are not going to experience climate change in the best case scenario or even average - that we get the worst case. Rather than climate change being a problem for future generations, it might even be a fairly immediate problem in this generation.
I reiterate that I think the chance is small, but it might be our world's weather has already tipped, and while there will still be variation, there will be a steady trend upward from now on, clearly perceptible at human scale time rates (decades, not centuries). This is compatible with the existing data - if we were suddenly steadily warming, we'd suddenly see a spate of temperature records set each year, just as we've seen now for the next several years. Of course, we really won't know for a few years yet...
The next few decades will be exciting regardless. I am fairly confident that humans will rise to the challenge and society and culture will survive, though I think with the onset of hard climate change, the world water crisis, and the end of the antibiotic all coming near the same time, things will get very bad in a way we haven't seen for 700 years or so...
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 4:58 PM on December 24, 2015 [5 favorites]
So - and I hate to be the bearer of bad news - a possible if unlikely hypothesis is that we are not going to experience climate change in the best case scenario or even average - that we get the worst case. Rather than climate change being a problem for future generations, it might even be a fairly immediate problem in this generation.
I reiterate that I think the chance is small, but it might be our world's weather has already tipped, and while there will still be variation, there will be a steady trend upward from now on, clearly perceptible at human scale time rates (decades, not centuries). This is compatible with the existing data - if we were suddenly steadily warming, we'd suddenly see a spate of temperature records set each year, just as we've seen now for the next several years. Of course, we really won't know for a few years yet...
The next few decades will be exciting regardless. I am fairly confident that humans will rise to the challenge and society and culture will survive, though I think with the onset of hard climate change, the world water crisis, and the end of the antibiotic all coming near the same time, things will get very bad in a way we haven't seen for 700 years or so...
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 4:58 PM on December 24, 2015 [5 favorites]
I am absolutely confident that climate change is going to be our most pressing issue within a dozen years. For the past two decades it is the worst-case predictions that have come true. We have blown right past all the best-case scenarios. Left them in the dust. We are well beyond the tipping point. We are well into the we-are-fucked point.
This is why we finally have US politicians admitting that there is a problem, why we have a US military telling us flat-out that we have a problem, why the top twenty US consumer products corps are saying flat-out that they have to change.
Our politicians, military, and corporations have fought admitting these problems for many years: this very year, that all changed. That alone should scare the shit out of you.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:36 PM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
This is why we finally have US politicians admitting that there is a problem, why we have a US military telling us flat-out that we have a problem, why the top twenty US consumer products corps are saying flat-out that they have to change.
Our politicians, military, and corporations have fought admitting these problems for many years: this very year, that all changed. That alone should scare the shit out of you.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:36 PM on December 24, 2015 [2 favorites]
The northern militaries are all doing squirts over the realization that the Arctic Ocean is soon going to be passable by normal ships. That is going to change a lot of trade and political realities.
posted by Bringer Tom at 1:00 PM on December 25, 2015
posted by Bringer Tom at 1:00 PM on December 25, 2015
2C is the optimistic best case scenario world governments are paying lip service towards possibly attempting. The IPCC states that we are presently on the path to 3.7 to 4.8C. And of course, 2C is the number previously arbitrarily declared as 'safe', never mind that we are discovering that even the current 1.1 degree change is unmanageable. And of course these numbers only look towards 2100 when the trajectory will continue long past this horizon. The forecasts also cannot adequately internalize the well publicized unpredictable tipping points like methane clathrates or the temperature at which forests cease to take in CO2 and instead dump it back out. We haven't seen anything yet.
posted by kaspen at 4:08 PM on December 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by kaspen at 4:08 PM on December 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
James Lovelock gives us twenty years.
posted by five fresh fish at 12:15 PM on December 30, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by five fresh fish at 12:15 PM on December 30, 2015 [1 favorite]
"The North Pole was above freezing today, on what should be one of the coldest days of the year. 50 deg F above norm."
posted by kliuless at 1:01 PM on December 31, 2015
posted by kliuless at 1:01 PM on December 31, 2015
Fossil fuel burning 'postponing next ice age': Climate change is altering global cycles to such an extent that the next ice age has been delayed for at least 100,000 years, according to new research identifying Earth’s deep-freeze tipping point
posted by homunculus at 9:18 PM on January 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by homunculus at 9:18 PM on January 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
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posted by Drinky Die at 12:27 AM on December 24, 2015 [7 favorites]