The ground begins to move at 11:44 AM on a Thursday in April.
March 3, 2016 4:56 PM Subscribe
It is indeed interesting reading so far (I've read only the first section thus far) but christing fuck do I wish the writer would choose a fucking verb tense and stick to it.
posted by dersins at 5:03 PM on March 3, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by dersins at 5:03 PM on March 3, 2016 [6 favorites]
Via OPB: Unprepared: An Oregon Field Guide Special
It's a very well-made program, if depressing. The takeaway message is that Oregon's pre-earthquake taxpayers would rather save money than prepare. That includes having hospitals and (elementary) schools right on the coast — no kidding — where post-magnitude 9.0 quake tsunamis will cause massive devastation.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 5:12 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
It's a very well-made program, if depressing. The takeaway message is that Oregon's pre-earthquake taxpayers would rather save money than prepare. That includes having hospitals and (elementary) schools right on the coast — no kidding — where post-magnitude 9.0 quake tsunamis will cause massive devastation.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 5:12 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
what portland?
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 5:12 PM on March 3, 2016
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 5:12 PM on March 3, 2016
Basically, you're on your own. Good luck!
posted by a lungful of dragon at 5:13 PM on March 3, 2016
posted by a lungful of dragon at 5:13 PM on March 3, 2016
TLDR version found here - with less annoying fiction (the Vice articles read like they found the original and then tacked a story around it).
posted by combinatorial explosion at 5:14 PM on March 3, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by combinatorial explosion at 5:14 PM on March 3, 2016 [5 favorites]
Spoiler: you won't be able to get a single origin expresso nor heritage pork loin for dinner.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:19 PM on March 3, 2016 [13 favorites]
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:19 PM on March 3, 2016 [13 favorites]
I know it's probably irrational, but as much as I love the Pacific northwest, as I'm considering places for retirement, I've all but eliminated going west of the cascades.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:47 PM on March 3, 2016
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:47 PM on March 3, 2016
Tokyo Magnitude 8.0:
I can't think of anything particularly iconic in Portland falling over the way Tokyo Tower is portrayed in the show, other than some antique bridges still in use for unknown reasons.
posted by pwnguin at 5:56 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
The series' setting is based upon the prediction that there is 70% or higher chance of an earthquake measuring 7.0 magnitude on the Richter scale hitting Tokyo in the next 30 years, with the series illustrating the consequences of an 8.0 scale earthquake affecting the city.
I can't think of anything particularly iconic in Portland falling over the way Tokyo Tower is portrayed in the show, other than some antique bridges still in use for unknown reasons.
posted by pwnguin at 5:56 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Big Pink will probably topple. I live out in the numbahs so my biggest concern is the doug fir tree falling over on my house.
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 6:36 PM on March 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 6:36 PM on March 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
People might mock our urban homesteading efforts here in portland but it totally makes sense considering how quickly our lives could all turn into some twee mad max kinda shit.
posted by Betty_effn_White at 6:47 PM on March 3, 2016 [20 favorites]
posted by Betty_effn_White at 6:47 PM on March 3, 2016 [20 favorites]
Like, you end up trading sexual favors for espresso and a few free-range eggs.
posted by rtha at 6:55 PM on March 3, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by rtha at 6:55 PM on March 3, 2016 [7 favorites]
Those who control the chickens control the universe.
posted by Betty_effn_White at 7:06 PM on March 3, 2016 [22 favorites]
posted by Betty_effn_White at 7:06 PM on March 3, 2016 [22 favorites]
Thanks for posting this. I'm attending my first CERT class in two weeks, but I sure hope we never see anything as bad as the scenario depicted in this article.
posted by longdaysjourney at 7:21 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by longdaysjourney at 7:21 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
The tank farms fed by the pipeline are not as resilient. Half-full tanks developed standing waves known as “seiches,” commonly seen in swimming pools during earthquakes.
Also seen in Devils Hole in Death Valley National Park! The Death Valley seiches are the result of very distant earthquakes.
posted by compartment at 7:24 PM on March 3, 2016 [3 favorites]
Also seen in Devils Hole in Death Valley National Park! The Death Valley seiches are the result of very distant earthquakes.
posted by compartment at 7:24 PM on March 3, 2016 [3 favorites]
Greeeeat, now I get to worry about my friend who moved there.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:44 PM on March 3, 2016
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:44 PM on March 3, 2016
All the articles along these lines are just propaganda to keep people from moving there. Everyone should listen to them and not move there.*
*except me
posted by wintersweet at 7:48 PM on March 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
*except me
posted by wintersweet at 7:48 PM on March 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
My go-to tongue-in-cheek joke when fellow Portlanders get on the subject is "on the plus side, I might be able to afford a house then."
I know that there's a definite non-zero chance of this place falling apart, but even in the reality that some day I'll be in ground zero of a disaster I don't really see myself living anywhere else than the NW.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 7:56 PM on March 3, 2016 [5 favorites]
I know that there's a definite non-zero chance of this place falling apart, but even in the reality that some day I'll be in ground zero of a disaster I don't really see myself living anywhere else than the NW.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 7:56 PM on March 3, 2016 [5 favorites]
I just hope it brings down the Yard.
But you know, I bet its probably going to be the only thing left standing.
posted by Auden at 8:05 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
But you know, I bet its probably going to be the only thing left standing.
posted by Auden at 8:05 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Funny. My internal stories like this begin: It's night, but the light is brighter than than the sun through my wall. Then I realize that the light has come through two doorways, not the window next to my bed. It's too hot. Then the sound is so loud that...
posted by Splunge at 8:26 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Splunge at 8:26 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
I live in a brick apartment building right at the foot of the West Hills. If the collapsing building doesn't kill me, the landslide and collapsing stilt houses careering down the hill certainly will!
posted by Automocar at 8:34 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Automocar at 8:34 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Very surprised at some of the flippancy here. I know taking shots at Portland is "fun" but unless it's your own gallows you're laughing at, kind of a dick move here?
posted by listen, lady at 8:49 PM on March 3, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by listen, lady at 8:49 PM on March 3, 2016 [4 favorites]
Whistling past the graveyard. And personally, I live in San Francisco, so...yeah.
posted by rtha at 9:13 PM on March 3, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by rtha at 9:13 PM on March 3, 2016 [4 favorites]
Ok but I kept wondering why, in all the detailed descriptions of why no planes/no trucks to bring in supplies, were helicopters not a thing? Food drops? If you have a city full of people cut off from outside, would you not do that?
Also seems like it would be easier to use forest-fire planes instead of trying to get trucks to put out fires?
I get that landing/refueling would be problems, but I kept thinking HELICOPTERS DAMMIT all the way through.
Relatedly he could also have made it worse by having it be in winter with lots of snow.
No description of problems that come from lots of dead bodies, though maybe with this scenario they'd be mostly buried anyway.
posted by emjaybee at 9:22 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Also seems like it would be easier to use forest-fire planes instead of trying to get trucks to put out fires?
I get that landing/refueling would be problems, but I kept thinking HELICOPTERS DAMMIT all the way through.
Relatedly he could also have made it worse by having it be in winter with lots of snow.
No description of problems that come from lots of dead bodies, though maybe with this scenario they'd be mostly buried anyway.
posted by emjaybee at 9:22 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
he could also have made it worse by having it be in winter with lots of snow.
ITYM rain.
posted by Greg_Ace at 9:27 PM on March 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
ITYM rain.
posted by Greg_Ace at 9:27 PM on March 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
15% chance of 9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in the next 50 years
70% chance of 7.0 earthquake hitting Tokyo in the next 30 years
63% probability of a 6.7 or greater quake in the San Francisco Bay region in the next 30 years (this prediction was made 8 years ago, so now 22 years) and a similar prediction for a larger earthquake in Los Angeles
And of course an earthquake in any of these places just increases the chances of another one in the rest of the places.
The Ring of Fire is in for some serious stront wurst.
posted by eye of newt at 9:34 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
70% chance of 7.0 earthquake hitting Tokyo in the next 30 years
63% probability of a 6.7 or greater quake in the San Francisco Bay region in the next 30 years (this prediction was made 8 years ago, so now 22 years) and a similar prediction for a larger earthquake in Los Angeles
And of course an earthquake in any of these places just increases the chances of another one in the rest of the places.
The Ring of Fire is in for some serious stront wurst.
posted by eye of newt at 9:34 PM on March 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
If this idea sounds familiar but better-written and none of the links above are doing it for you, the New Yorker did a highly readable piece speculating about the Pacific Northwest and Cascadia Subduction Zone's 'the big one' last July. We talked about it on MetaFilter as well.
posted by librarylis at 9:48 PM on March 3, 2016 [10 favorites]
posted by librarylis at 9:48 PM on March 3, 2016 [10 favorites]
This one understands where people live and work in Portland, though.
posted by gingerest at 12:58 AM on March 4, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by gingerest at 12:58 AM on March 4, 2016 [3 favorites]
I just finished listening to the audiobook of Simon Winchester's "The Crack at the Edge of the World," and AFAICT you are all screwed. Sorry, because it seems like such a nice place, too; it's a shame that Mother Nature will cleanse it with fire and force before I have a chance to visit.
posted by wenestvedt at 3:14 AM on March 4, 2016
posted by wenestvedt at 3:14 AM on March 4, 2016
I made the mistake of reading the Portland Mercury one first. The Vice article now looks even more poorly edited, which I'd thought wasn't possible.
posted by XtinaS at 5:42 AM on March 4, 2016
posted by XtinaS at 5:42 AM on March 4, 2016
This is a sci-fi author's disaster porn write up of what could happen maybe in a worst case scenario. However like the NY Times peice it relies on fantasy and speculation about the worst, most improbable chain of events rather than the likely ones. It is more likely that things won't break as bad and that we'll have a couple decades to get ready. Fortunately Oregon is doing a lot to get ready. Schools are being moved. Tsunami sirens have been installed. Roads and bridges are getting updated. I spend a lot of time out there and the rest of my family is there. It is kind of annoying to read these disaster scenarios over and over again. Inevitably well meaning friends flood my relatives with these stories. As if they didn't know.
posted by humanfont at 7:06 AM on March 4, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by humanfont at 7:06 AM on March 4, 2016 [2 favorites]
QUAKE 2016I have a feeling it will be somewhere in between. And most people I know here have some form of disaster escape plan, and water and food put by. That being said, if you live here and want to freak yourself out....
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 9:00 AM on March 4, 2016
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 9:00 AM on March 4, 2016
I live in Michigan. We're not going to get a tsunami, a major earthquake, or a hurricane. We get tornados, but not in the numbers or the frequency that the big flat windy states to our south do. I live in a place where a prevailing northeasterly flow of weather means that, consistently, the worst weather passes, first, just to the south and, then, just to the east of us. A bad bunch of tornados a few years ago followed exactly that path, for instance, and so do the edges of many rain- and snowstorms.
It's kind of interesting to live in a place that doesn't really have a mechanism for total rapid destruction by an act of nature. Weirdly, it's kind of a let-down. All these people in California and Oregon, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and so on, whose lives are a high-stakes bet against The Big One happening while they're still there. Kind of exciting! Thumbing your nose at fate!
Here in Michigan it's a sort of lower-stakes gamble that the economy will still allow us and our kids a decent standard of living as the decades pass, which is an anxiety we've been living with at least since the early 80s, and a bet we've seen a lot of our neighbors lose.
We have a lot of room here for survivors/refugees from other places, though. A lot of land, both urban and rural, and empty housing stock that might not be completely unlivable if these disasters hit y'all sooner rather than later. Heavy industry is gone, for now, but we could build a functioning economy again if the coasts weren't there to drain away money, ideas, intellect, and entrepreneurial energy.
Back in the 80s, when the automotive jobs started going away in big numbers for the first time, and people started leaving Michigan in hopes of jobs elsewhere, the joke was, "Will the last person to leave Michigan please turn out the light?" But now I feel like we're Motel 6: not a place you'd want to spend the night if you had better options, but still, there and waiting and good enough once your other options fall into the ocean. "Michigan: We'll Leave The Lights On For You."
posted by not that girl at 9:20 AM on March 4, 2016 [11 favorites]
It's kind of interesting to live in a place that doesn't really have a mechanism for total rapid destruction by an act of nature. Weirdly, it's kind of a let-down. All these people in California and Oregon, the Gulf Coast, Florida, and so on, whose lives are a high-stakes bet against The Big One happening while they're still there. Kind of exciting! Thumbing your nose at fate!
Here in Michigan it's a sort of lower-stakes gamble that the economy will still allow us and our kids a decent standard of living as the decades pass, which is an anxiety we've been living with at least since the early 80s, and a bet we've seen a lot of our neighbors lose.
We have a lot of room here for survivors/refugees from other places, though. A lot of land, both urban and rural, and empty housing stock that might not be completely unlivable if these disasters hit y'all sooner rather than later. Heavy industry is gone, for now, but we could build a functioning economy again if the coasts weren't there to drain away money, ideas, intellect, and entrepreneurial energy.
Back in the 80s, when the automotive jobs started going away in big numbers for the first time, and people started leaving Michigan in hopes of jobs elsewhere, the joke was, "Will the last person to leave Michigan please turn out the light?" But now I feel like we're Motel 6: not a place you'd want to spend the night if you had better options, but still, there and waiting and good enough once your other options fall into the ocean. "Michigan: We'll Leave The Lights On For You."
posted by not that girl at 9:20 AM on March 4, 2016 [11 favorites]
Spoiler: you won't be able to get a single origin expresso nor heritage pork loin for dinner.
So, bespoke ice cream cones are still available, right? Right!?
posted by spacely_sprocket at 9:21 AM on March 4, 2016 [3 favorites]
So, bespoke ice cream cones are still available, right? Right!?
posted by spacely_sprocket at 9:21 AM on March 4, 2016 [3 favorites]
I like the part with all of St Johns being ablaze. The only thing you can be sure of is that this description is wrong as are all future gawping articles to some degree. It might happen in December with landslides galore or in August with much less misery, could be 3 am with everybody at home or 5:30 with all the cars on the roads. I think in general Americans go for a slightly Pollyannaish take when it comes to disaster planning, We are the country of brinkman-improvisation and we love it, (Apollo 13 The Movie?) We also haven't had large parts of our country destroyed since the Civil War, I think this is why we love disaster/armageddon porn. Unlike Russia or Germany we have no recent experience with cataclysm and recovery so we-fear love the idea and instead of imagining recovery and normalcy we fantasize about post apocalyptic BDSM and don't really think in practical terms about risk reduction, (I mean the voters, with their pocketbooks.) There is an excellent OPB effort on The Earthquake: http://www.opb.org/news/series/unprepared/ What I wonder is when it comes if it will smash Portland enough that the new locus of Oregon will be the Bend etc. part of the state. Arguments against that are the absence of Interstate 5 and the River. I just hope it happens before I'm too old or after I'm dead. I don't want to be 68 and trying to push rubble with my bare hands.
posted by Pembquist at 9:35 AM on March 4, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Pembquist at 9:35 AM on March 4, 2016 [1 favorite]
WHO CONTROL STUMPTOWN?
posted by gottabefunky at 9:50 AM on March 4, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by gottabefunky at 9:50 AM on March 4, 2016 [7 favorites]
but seriously, we've started carrying an inflatable raft in our car in case one of us has to retrieve our daughter from school across the river and all the bridges are out of service
posted by gottabefunky at 9:54 AM on March 4, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by gottabefunky at 9:54 AM on March 4, 2016 [4 favorites]
Why is it that in the last year there's been so much media focus on this? I feel like OPB, the Portland Mercury, the Oregonian and Wilamette Weekly all did articles on the earthquake, along with the NYT and now Vice. Was there a new study done recently?
I live right off the MAX line on 60th & Glisan. I'll be trudging along the train tracks, or I'll be at Biddys.
posted by gucci mane at 12:26 PM on March 4, 2016
I live right off the MAX line on 60th & Glisan. I'll be trudging along the train tracks, or I'll be at Biddys.
posted by gucci mane at 12:26 PM on March 4, 2016
We did this same scenario in Portland in the 1980s in elementary school. Its part of the Northwestern mythos, this fear of Cascadia Apocalypse.
posted by iamck at 1:19 PM on March 4, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by iamck at 1:19 PM on March 4, 2016 [1 favorite]
Remember when these so called scientists were all, "One day the great ice dam at Lake Missoula will burst and our great nation will be obliterated in a terrible flood as the glacial lake drains to the ocean in a few days."
posted by humanfont at 3:01 PM on March 4, 2016
posted by humanfont at 3:01 PM on March 4, 2016
Why is it that in the last year there's been so much media focus on this?
Indonesia, Chile, Japan...
posted by clew at 3:26 PM on March 4, 2016
I think it's more fear mongering. Nothing gets clicks like the possibility the world is ending.
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 5:31 PM on March 4, 2016
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 5:31 PM on March 4, 2016
Been there, done that. I lived through 1983-84 so more disaster end of the world shit is just like my childhood.
I'm Oregon born and raised and none of the locals are surprised. You live through floods and volcanoes exploding and people filming Animal House in town and you get used to it. Life is peril. Everyday is a chance at crazy shit coming true, you just deal with it.
posted by fiercekitten at 5:36 PM on March 4, 2016 [1 favorite]
I'm Oregon born and raised and none of the locals are surprised. You live through floods and volcanoes exploding and people filming Animal House in town and you get used to it. Life is peril. Everyday is a chance at crazy shit coming true, you just deal with it.
posted by fiercekitten at 5:36 PM on March 4, 2016 [1 favorite]
The author has a follow-up article, "Everything You Need to Survive the Big One".
posted by jjwiseman at 11:20 AM on March 5, 2016
posted by jjwiseman at 11:20 AM on March 5, 2016
I think it's more fear mongering. Nothing gets clicks like the possibility the world is ending.-- LuckyMonkey21
It isn't just fear mongering, and it is good to publish articles like this to convince cities like Portland to better prepare.
When two large bodies of land on either side of a fault are measurably moving next to each other, inches per year, north of a city, and south of a city, but there is no movement at all near the city, then you know enormous forces are building up.
We absolutely know that all that pressure has to be released, we just don't know exactly when. It is like stretching a rubber band more and more. You can't guess when it will break, but you sure as heck know that it is going to break.
Here's something interesting and new I just learned about: slow earthquakes. They have the power of 6 or 7 on the Richter scale, but they take place over weeks, so you can't feel them. These have been happening frequently along the Cascadia Subduction zone.
If you look at Figure 11 in the article I link, you'll see the problem. There has been all this slow-earthquake slippage, but there's this large area that is locked, with no movement at all. It would be better if the area got a few 5 or 6 or even 7 level earthquakes, like we get in the SF Bay Area, so they would have a better idea of what is coming and more motivation to do better reinforcement of buildings, bridges, and hillsides.
posted by eye of newt at 7:02 PM on March 5, 2016 [2 favorites]
It isn't just fear mongering, and it is good to publish articles like this to convince cities like Portland to better prepare.
When two large bodies of land on either side of a fault are measurably moving next to each other, inches per year, north of a city, and south of a city, but there is no movement at all near the city, then you know enormous forces are building up.
We absolutely know that all that pressure has to be released, we just don't know exactly when. It is like stretching a rubber band more and more. You can't guess when it will break, but you sure as heck know that it is going to break.
Here's something interesting and new I just learned about: slow earthquakes. They have the power of 6 or 7 on the Richter scale, but they take place over weeks, so you can't feel them. These have been happening frequently along the Cascadia Subduction zone.
If you look at Figure 11 in the article I link, you'll see the problem. There has been all this slow-earthquake slippage, but there's this large area that is locked, with no movement at all. It would be better if the area got a few 5 or 6 or even 7 level earthquakes, like we get in the SF Bay Area, so they would have a better idea of what is coming and more motivation to do better reinforcement of buildings, bridges, and hillsides.
posted by eye of newt at 7:02 PM on March 5, 2016 [2 favorites]
The city of Portland is generally divided into five quadrants
Now, that's an interesting trick.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:13 PM on March 5, 2016 [2 favorites]
Now, that's an interesting trick.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:13 PM on March 5, 2016 [2 favorites]
I know, right, they really should have gone with "Portland est omnis divisa in partes quinques."
posted by gingerest at 9:27 PM on March 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by gingerest at 9:27 PM on March 5, 2016 [1 favorite]
Eye of Newt-
I live here, and am fully aware that there are things that will happen. Seriously, they are on it. I objected to this particular article because it was disaster porn. I would just like them to report on it in a way that helps people to prepare rather than just freak them out.
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 10:05 PM on March 5, 2016
I live here, and am fully aware that there are things that will happen. Seriously, they are on it. I objected to this particular article because it was disaster porn. I would just like them to report on it in a way that helps people to prepare rather than just freak them out.
posted by LuckyMonkey21 at 10:05 PM on March 5, 2016
The author has built their fantasy by selecting worst case options at every turn. It's a m9 quake as opposed to the more likely m8.5(still huge but like 16 times smaller in energy). The epicenter is due west from Portland about 125 miles away, instead of the more likely location southwest of Coos Bay (250) miles away. Also the story is set in the near future where all the ongoing seismic upgrades are incomplete.
posted by humanfont at 6:33 PM on March 6, 2016
posted by humanfont at 6:33 PM on March 6, 2016
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posted by skycrashesdown at 4:56 PM on March 3, 2016