Election 2016: Rubio and Kasich's last stand
March 15, 2016 3:55 AM   Subscribe

The 2016 Apocalypse Presidential Election continues: Five states vote in primaries on Tuesday, March 15th. Republican candidates Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will undoubtedly gain some delegates, while the other two will likely face their last stands: Marco Rubio in Florida, and John Kasich in Ohio. Candidates are taking desperate measures, like recommending each other, to stop Trump, while violence escalates at Trump events. Meanwhile, the Democratic race has tightened between frontrunner Hillary Clinton and her opponent Bernard Sanders as they prepare to split almost 800 delegates Tuesday...

Tuesday, March 15th
- Florida (Republican and Democratic primaries)
- Illinois (Republican and Democratic primaries)
- Missouri (Republican and Democratic primaries)
- North Carolina (Republican and Democratic primaries)
- Ohio (Republican and Democratic primaries)
- Northern Mariana Islands (Republican caucus)

Tuesday, March 22nd
- Arizona (Republican and Democratic primaries)
- Utah (Republican and Democratic caucuses)
- Idaho (Democratic caucus)

Saturday, March 26th
- Alaska (Democratic caucus)
- Hawaii (Democratic caucus)
- Washington State (Democratic caucus)

There may not be any debates for a while: A Republican debate is scheduled for Monday, March 21st in Salt Lake City, but Donald Trump hasn't heard about it. He only knows what he reads on the Internet, after all. The next Democratic debate will be sometime in April.

(Please play nicely and respect the moderators.)
posted by mmoncur (4322 comments total) 46 users marked this as a favorite

 
(My first FPP! Go easy on me if it has mistakes. Thanks to Wordshore for the previous election megathread, which I shamelessly copied the formatting from.)
posted by mmoncur at 3:56 AM on March 15, 2016 [42 favorites]


Thanks mmoncur, good post!
posted by Drinky Die at 3:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


[Hello, gentle election thread followers, your friendly moderator here! It would be great to try to keep this focused on developing news and info, and make an effort to avoid a flood of casual or repeat commenting that folks will have to wade through to try to get to any substantial coverage or analysis. Thank you!]
posted by taz at 4:04 AM on March 15, 2016 [49 favorites]


North Carolina represent. Heading to the polls after work and a snack. It's been a practice for me for over a decade to walk from home to the voting booth. It clears my head. Currently this means walking a couple miles each way, and that's the short route across train tracks, a highway underpass and some parking lots.

Maybe the court-ordered re-redistricting that didn't really help much will be redrawn again between now and this summer, when the postponed state legislature elections occur, will reallocate me to one of the polling stations nearer by.
posted by ardgedee at 4:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


mmoncur, what a great first post! Looking forward to the rest of the thread.
posted by infini at 4:11 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


He only knows what he reads on the Internet, after all.

That's certainly something that we have in common.

From the "hasn't heard about it" link: "We've had enough debates," Trump told reporters at a news conference in Palm Beach, Florida. "I mean, how many times do you have to give the same answer to the same question?"

He actually might have a point there...
posted by sour cream at 4:15 AM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


"I mean, how many times do you have to give the same answer to the same question?"

I don't know Trump, but once you answer a question the same way twice we'll get right on figuring that out.
posted by Twain Device at 4:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [58 favorites]


Needs the "holy shit please make it stop trash fire two thousand fuckteen" hashtag.

Great post, thank you mmoncur!
posted by triggerfinger at 4:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [22 favorites]


Fivethirtyeight has Kasich at an 87% chance (as I write this) of winning Ohio. That is good (well, relatively speaking, here in this Darkest Timeline) news, because if Trump takes Ohio along with all the rest, he is pretty much unstoppable bar an unprecedented thermonuclear ratfucking at the convention. If Kasich takes it, there are still paths to Trump not making 1237 before then.

Not that any of the potential not-Trumps in play aren't anything less than terrifying, but so it goes.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


"A plague o'both your houses!"

Well, IMHO, once the Bern is damped (if that comes to pass) (if the Bern pulls it off, he'll be McGovern'd mercilessly). It'll be a nose holder (for me). Not that it'll be hard to hold one's nose.

This election will have so many twists and turns it will be mind boggling. Contested GOP convention, the establishment holding on like grim death? Third party candidate due to hurt feelings, slights? Electoral College crisis due to aforementioned third party candidate and no winner in the Electoral College with a GOP House calling the election (shudder)? GOP state legislatures changing winner take all to apportioned Electoral College delegates to rig the EC vote?

What a way to run a political system, pick a president.
posted by WinstonJulia at 4:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Politico: Trump probably wins everything except Ohio (Kasich), Clinton probably wins everything though Illinois and Missouri have a significant chance of going to Sanders.
posted by Wordshore at 4:47 AM on March 15, 2016


@ggreenwald Glenn Greenwald, regarding Secretary Clinton's comments yesterday on Libya: You justified the bombing campaign with flamboyant displays of concern for The Libyan People: remember them?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Just voted here in Cincinnati. Poll workers reported that it wasn't too busy yet but it seemed like it was picking up when I left. There are at least a couple of down-ballot Democratic primaries with more centrist/establishment and progressive/activist Democrats running (this one will be the most interesting - whether rising star Cincinnati city councilman can beat the former Governor [who lost the Governor position to Kasich], who jumped into the race late) -- when results begin to come in, I will be looking to see if voters going for Sanders help lift the latter group towards victory.

Last night on evening news I saw several Clinton and Sanders ads, 1 or 2 Kasich ads (which still show Ben Carson in them...), 2 anti-Trump ads, and at least 2 Trump ads.

For those playing along at home, the big Ohio counties to keep an eye on tonight when returns begin coming in are the following:

Hamilton - Cincinnati
Franklin - Columbus
Cuyahoga - Cleveland
Lucas - Toledo
posted by mostly vowels at 4:51 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


My single, insane, and incorrect prediction:

Sanders gets more votes than Clinton in Ohio because a higher percentage of Clinton supporters cast a terrified strategic vote for Kasich in the Republican primary.
posted by kyrademon at 4:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Why would Clinton supporters vote strategic today? Most head to head polls show Clinton and Sanders beating Der Furor easily. Trump is an awful candidate for the Republicans they just can't stop him because apparently half of their base are neofascists.
posted by vuron at 4:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


My prediction for Ohio: Cuyahoga County goes for Bernie, because progressive voters decline to vote strategically in the Republican primary and instead take the opportunity to vote against prosecutor Tim McGinty, who declined to indict the police officers that shot Tamir Rice.
posted by box at 5:02 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


I don't know a single Democrat in Ohio planning to vote strategically in the GOP primary. Not saying it won't happen but I really don't see that being A Thing.
posted by mostly vowels at 5:08 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Ben Carson: Even if Trump's a bad president, it'll only be 4 years

With endorsements like these, who needs enemies?
posted by mmoncur at 5:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [57 favorites]


> "Why would Clinton supporters vote strategic today?"

I said that because --

1) I might vote for Kasich, if I lived in Ohio, since I'm pretty mellow about whether Sanders or Clinton gets the Democratic nomination but the ever-increasing brownshirt-style violence of "Trumpism" is scaring the &*&%*! out of me, and

2) I completely without justification assume that many other voters are Just Like Me, except that

3) Although I actually voted for Sanders, I suspect that my mellowness about whether Sanders or Clinton gets the nomination is somewhat more common among Clinton supporters than Sanders supporters, based on no objective evidence and going entirely by the nonrandom and biased sampling of what people seem to be saying on Metafilter, besides which

4) I said it was an insane and inaccurate prediction, so it's not like I'm standing firmly behind this and shouting it as truth from the rooftops.
posted by kyrademon at 5:10 AM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


It's early morning, but a few things are abundantly clear. Trump will get the lion's share of delegates and is all but guaranteed the GOP nomination. There's not going to be any brokered convention or the like; Trump is it. Rubio will likely lose even his home state of Florida and finally drop out. Cruz will hold on for a while longer, but not for much.

I'm a Sanders supporter, and I think he'll have a good day. I hope so, anyway! If he takes Ohio that will be YUGE, and his momentum will keep on keepin on. Probably pretty evenly split, which is ultimately good news for Hillary, because Bernie needs some big wins.
posted by zardoz at 5:12 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


You do realize that Kasich is really unpopular among Ohio Democrats right? Between his attacks on unions, planned parenthood, expansion of fracking and cutting funds to cities, most Ohio Democrats loathe Kasich, and shake our heads at how he's been able to push a moderate image because of how insane this election year has become.
posted by mostly vowels at 5:13 AM on March 15, 2016 [43 favorites]


My prediction: Missouri goes to Sanders by a nose, Ohio by a bit more and Illinois by good bit. Clinton takes NC, but not by as much as one might expect, and Florida by a lot. We go into the next round of elections with Sanders just slightly closer to Clinton than before. Upcoming state primaries continue the pattern, and in the end it's basically a tie and they'll have to settle it with a brawl between Clinton's donors and Sanders' donors.

That last part might just be a fantasy.
posted by Foosnark at 5:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


"You voting for Hillary today?"
"Heck no, you can't trust her. I'm between Bernie & Kasich"
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


they'll have to settle it with a brawl between Clinton's donors and Sanders' donors.

Nerdfight!

I'm agnostic enough between Sanders and Clinton that I am honestly not sure I will bother to vote (and by the time this state votes, it will probably be decided anyway). They are both ok in some ways and flawed in others, but I could live with either.

But the GOP side is the most compelling political theater in my lifetime and I can't figure out what they are going to do. They have a set of genuinely terrible candidates (though each for a different reason) and half the party seems to be hoping for a reincarnation of Reagan to walk in and solve everything. Maybe Romney thought he would take that role, but he was more like a stage jumper whom the crowd decides not to catch, and the thud when he hit was painful to witness.

My hope on that side is that the results continue to stay mixed so that Trump doesn't pass the mark for a long time, giving more time for the party elders to figure out a non-brownshirt option of some sort.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:25 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Why I Have Not Endorsed Any Candidate, by Samira Rice (mother of Tamir): My experience has let me know that the system is working just the way the people in power want it to. I cannot settle for partial solutions and lip service.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:26 AM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


Sanders gets more votes than Clinton in Ohio because a higher percentage of Clinton supporters cast a terrified strategic vote for Kasich in the Republican primary.

Or, as I like to call it, "Tuesday morning."

What a freakin' weird year.
posted by MrGuilt at 5:29 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Hillary’s emails reveal lucrative ties to for-profit colleges
It was recently revealed through Hillary’s emails that during her first year as Secretary of State she insisted that Laureate Education be included in the guest list for an education policy dinner hosted at the U.S. Department of State.

“It’s a for-profit model that should be represented,” she wrote in the August 2009 email, and as a result, a senior vice president at Laureate was added to the guest list. Several months later, former President Bill Clinton became an honorary chancellor of Laureate International Universities, which turned out to be incredibly lucrative. He was paid a cool $16.5 million between 2010 and 2014 for his role with the for-profit college.
posted by ennui.bz at 5:30 AM on March 15, 2016 [48 favorites]


Beware the Ides of March.
posted by Sphinx at 5:37 AM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


Ben Carson: Even if Trump's a bad president, it'll only be 4 years

What an odd thing to say!
And what does this say about his opinion regarding Obama?
I mean, Obama is a two-term president, so if Ben Carson thinks that all the bad presidents only serve one term and then fail to be reelected, then the only logical concl ... Oh. Right. Sorry. I'll see myself to the door now.
posted by sour cream at 5:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


My impressions for here in FL 18th District:

I was at a fundraiser Friday for Jonathan Chane and Mary Higgins. Chane is running as a Dem facing Randy Perkins in the August D primary to replace Patrick Murphy, who is the DNC and establishment pick to get the D nod for Rubio's seat.

Based on my unscientific polling here, it's Trump by a lot. The Rubio campaign is conspicuously absent in Martin County, one of the most reliably Republican counties in FL. On the Dem side, based on attendance at the fundraiser, it's a dead heat, much closer than the polls suggest. That may be skewed as this was an event for Chane. Perkins fits the Clinton mold more closely - a one time Republican who changed his registration to Dem to run for this open seat, lots of money of his own and from the DNC, Big Sugar, etc., and typical "Third way" Republican-lite policies. The August down-ticket primary will be interesting.

(I was a long time supporter of Murphy - another R who became a D to run - but after his vote in favor of intervention in Syria, that was it for this R in D's clothing. I's supporting Alan Grayson.)
posted by sudogeek at 5:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Beware the Ides of March.

I was in the shower this morning, contemplating the strangeness/irony/appropriateness/whatever of participating in the Democratic process on the Ides of March, when a house centipede skittered along the wall near the ceiling, got near the showerhead, and fell off the wall and slid down the drain. I have no idea what that would portend (aside from a clumsy/suicidal arthropod) but I had a good, bitter laugh over it.

What a freakin' weird year.

Yeah.
posted by Foosnark at 5:51 AM on March 15, 2016 [24 favorites]


You do realize that Kasich is really unpopular among Ohio Democrats right?

Kasich's fav / unfav among Ohio Democrats is 30/58. Even among voters who describe themselves as "very liberal" he gets 30/61. Those are pretty great numbers for a GOP governor! (Compare: Scott Walker gets 38/57 in Wisconsin among all voters, both Democrats and Republicans!) General election polls in Ohio show Democrats winning against any GOP candidate except Kasich, who wallops both Clinton and Sanders.

I don't think there's a clear path for Kasich to the nomination, and I don't actually think he's a particularly moderate Republican, but if you want a guy who can draw some support from the other party and who can win a swing state, I think he's got a pretty good claim that it's him.
posted by escabeche at 5:51 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


This picture almost makes me feel sad for Marco*.

* - So long as the use of 'almost' here is the same as in 'i almost made the LFC first team after a great performance in a pick-up game against five year olds.'
posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'm curious to see what the Republican Party does after this election. The years of courting the fringe and Tea Party elements has lost them control of their own party, so they need to either embrace the madness or change the rules of the system to take back control. If it's the former I suspect the more moderate elements will defect to the Democrats, while in the latter situation the lunatics will splinter to form their own authoritarian party.

Either way it's good news for the Democrats, but not so much for the progressives. The Democratic Party will necessarily lean further right, win handily for a while, and within 8-12 years we could see the same situation repeated on the left. We could be looking at the birth of a three party system in the States.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I was number 48, voting in a semi-gentrified area of south St. Louis, MO. I see lots of Bernie signs, and some hillary stickers. (including a Hillary sticker on the same car with a sticker for the Jesus-y, generally rightwing radio station; go figure)
posted by notsnot at 5:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Thanks for the tip on Sittenfeld, mostly vowels. Somehow I missed him, although in a general I'd certainly take Strickland over Portman.

Total anecdata; here in Cleveland I know a couple of people who already have crossed over to make a strategic vote for Kasich, and several more who are at least seriously considering it. So it's kind of a Thing, I just doubt that it's enough of a Thing to really make a difference. (I could see, maybe, early returns showing a close enough race causing late voters to more strongly consider a strategic vote, but I don't know how we'd actually get evidence that that happened.)
posted by soundguy99 at 5:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Based on my single bit of anecdotal evidence, Kasich doesn't have a chance. My mom mentioned Sunday that "some republican" running for "something" was having a rally in the community centre of my home Chicago suburb, two blocks from my childhood home, but she had no idea that it was Kasich.

It took me 10 minutes to establish this was someone running for President, and not Village Treasurer, and my mom is pretty switched on about the news cycle and politics. Taking the country by storm he isn't.
posted by C.A.S. at 6:03 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


My prediction: nobody has a clue what's going to happen today.
posted by localhuman at 6:06 AM on March 15, 2016 [43 favorites]


Pondering the strategic Kasich vote: if it became apparent that there was a significant number of folks who crossed the aisle to vote Kasich/against Trump (i.e. "wow, Kasich's winning margin is surprisingly similar to the variance between the Dem's participation in this primary vs. 2008 (the prior open primary"), I'm sure Trump and his supporters would cry foul. Would there be any recourse?

Personally, everything is in the rules, and, at the end of the day, I will choose between two candidates in November. It's not unreasonable for me to want input into who they may be.
posted by MrGuilt at 6:08 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


> "I'm sure Trump and his supporters would cry foul. Would there be any recourse?"

Well, first, given how many conservative Democrats Trump is known to have picked up in open primaries thus far, that would be pretty hypocritical. So, yeah, it would probably happen.

However, whether they cry foul or not, there is no recourse. How do you prove whether a vote by a registered Democrat for Kasich is a strategic vote against Trump or a sincere belief that Kasich is nifty? Even if you could prove it, what would it matter? It's a free country and an open primary, you can vote for whoever you want for whatever reason you want.

States that want to avoid this kind of thing have closed primaries. Ohio doesn't.
posted by kyrademon at 6:19 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I was unable to vote in Ohio this morning because my change of address form apparently did not work. I'm pretty angry.

My boyfriend is considering biting his tongue and voting for Kasich for the downstream effects in the Republican convention. I could not bring myself to do that because Kasich is such an anti-women, anti-labor candidate, but I appreciate the sacrifice.

I'm in Columbus, and I'm just glad the Republican convention will be in Cleveland, not here!
posted by ChuraChura at 6:19 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Duval counties computers had a county wide glitch and went down, so according to the news all precincts went to paper ballots. This was around 8 am, so barely an hour after the polls opened. The Supervisor of Elections went on breaking news to clarify that it was a problem with the electronic check in, so voters were/are being checked in by hand and then I believe they're using the scantron ballots.

It's going to be a long long day here in Florida.
posted by hollygoheavy at 6:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


That hypothetical Ohio Democrat who's cool with either Bernie or Hillary, knows full well that Kasich isn't actually moderate, but still wants to vote against budding fascism? Yeah, I can see it.
posted by whuppy at 6:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Either way it's good news for the Democrats, but not so much for the progressives. The Democratic Party will necessarily lean further right, win handily for a while, and within 8-12 years we could see the same situation repeated on the left. We could be looking at the birth of a three party system in the States.

I've been thinking this same thing for a while as well. If all you care about is "My party will win!" this is indeed great news for the Democrats, but probably terrible news for anyone who espouses anything resembling progressive values. I guess it just means we will slide down the pole a little more slowly than otherwise, but doesn't give me much hope.
posted by briank at 6:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Early voted here in Cincinnati last Saturday because my son was home from college and he didn't think to get an absentee ballot in time. It was his first time voting so we all went downtown together to the Board of Elections. I got a little teary because voting is super important to me, and I used to take him and his sister with me to vote when they were little and taking them out of school wasn't a big deal. They'd go into the booth with me and we'd discuss why voting was important, and my belief that if you don't vote you don't have the right to bitch about government (unless, of course, your vote was taken from you or you were disenfranchised). They'd get stickers, too, and it was fun.

So yeah. My kid participated in his very first election, exercising his right to vote. It's a big deal.
posted by cooker girl at 6:34 AM on March 15, 2016 [51 favorites]






Kenneth P. Vogel, Ben Schreckinger and Hadas Gold: Trump campaign manager's behavior prompted staff concerns
The Republican presidential frontrunner is standing by his 42-year-old campaign manager, and both men have disputed the reporter’s account. Lewandowski, responding to emailed questions, characterized his relationship with reporters who cover the campaign as “excellent” and said his temperament is not an obstacle to doing his job.

But a POLITICO investigation reveals that the incident was far from the first time in Lewandowski’s political career ― or even during the 2016 campaign ― that the intense, Red Bull-chugging operative has been accused of bullying and other inappropriate behavior.

In interviews with more than 20 sources who have dealt with Lewandowski during his nearly year-long tenure with the Trump campaign and in his previous job with the Koch brothers-backed advocacy group Americans for Prosperity, complaints emerged about Lewandowski being rough with reporters and sexually suggestive with female journalists, while profanely berating conservative officials and co-workers he deemed to be challenging his authority.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Predicting tomorrow's NY Post headline: Goodbye Rubio Tuesday.
posted by The Bellman at 6:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [57 favorites]


Goodbye Rubio Tuesday.

Not really gonna miss you.
posted by Faint of Butt at 6:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


I was unable to vote in Ohio this morning because my change of address form apparently did not work. I'm pretty angry.

Ask to cast a provisional ballot. Also, contact this voting watchdog group (1 866 OUR Vote). A friend in MA was unable to vote in her primary, and the Our Vote people were able to help her out, pointing her to the actual law about "postmarked by" (vs. received by) that the local clerks had misinterpreted.
posted by anastasiav at 6:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Beware the Ides of March.
posted by Sphinx at 8:37 AM on March 15 [4 favorites +] [!]


Which appropriately enough, Ides of March is movie about politics that partially takes place in and filmed in Ohio.
posted by mmascolino at 6:50 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


It's been sort of fascinating in a grim way watching Salon twist itself in knots trying to be a Democratic media outlet for two election cycles now, (separated by 2012) while presenting a pretty partisan picture of the Dem field. They clearly loathe Hillary and would like to see Sanders elected. During the 2008 election their coverage was dotted with a few positive / sympathetic pieces, but this cycle their coverage has been deeply negative regarding the Clinton campaign.

If Clinton does get the nomination, it should be interesting to see if they switch streams or abandon their principles to get Trump elected.
posted by zarq at 6:50 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


The emphasis on "winning" the primaries in the Democratic race is really unfortunate. Because of the proportional allocation of delegates, Sanders could "win" 4 out of 5 races today and still end up with a net loss of 100+ delegates. Which is what happened with the Michigan/Mississippi primaries. It was a "big night" for Sanders, but he actually suffered a net loss of like 30 delegates. It really doesn't make sense to cover the races this way when they aren't winner-take-all.

And I worry that Sanders fans might feel bamboozled when their candidate stacks up some surprising "wins" and ends up losing by a substantial number of pledged delegates.
posted by mpbx at 6:56 AM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


Salon has been absolutely ripping Trump for months, so I don't see that happening.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:57 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Trump was in Greater Cincinnati this weekend which caused a couple interesting developments:

His rally was supposed to be in downtown Cincinnati but due to what they called safety concerns they moved it to the reliably Republican suburb of West Chester.

The Hamilton County sheriff Jim Neil, a Democrat who is running unopposed in the primary, is facing a backlash because he was sitting on the dais, smiling and cheering behind Trump, during the rally: Neil: Attending Trump rally was 'selfish'.

Trump tweeted that Pete Rose has endorsed him, and said Rose should be in the Hall of Fame. Rose's lawyer has denied any endorsement.
posted by girlmightlive at 6:57 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


From the Monkey Cage Blog today, an article (WaPo) detailing how skillfully Trump has wielded the politics of resentment, how that's helping him in the rust belt --and how pundits who equate Trump and Sanders' screeds against the system are missing the point.
posted by duffell at 6:57 AM on March 15, 2016


Salon has been absolutely ripping Trump for months, so I don't see that happening.


They won't endorse Trump, they'll just say that Hillary is no better than Trump, so progressives are better off heightening the contradictions in the hope that things get so bad for minorities and poor people that they finally see the light and vote for who white, liberal leftists want them to.
posted by mpbx at 6:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


TPM: Someone Will Die
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:00 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'd be surprised if there was much crossover among Ohio Democrats. He's not, like, wildly unpopular, but it's not like Dems think he's benign. He's got a pretty bad reputation, tempered only by the realization that it could be much worse.

On the other hand, he's very popular among Republicans here, so he should probably win comfortably. There's no real reason for Democrats to vote strategically.

But I'm a Republican who switched parties to vote for Bernie, so what do I know?
posted by kevinbelt at 7:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Salon has been absolutely ripping Trump for months, so I don't see that happening.

The question in my mind is not whether they'll endorse Trump outright. They won't. But every article attacking her during the national campaign once the primaries are over will be more fodder for moderates who might have voted for her to say, "Screw them both, I'll stay home on Election Day."
posted by zarq at 7:06 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


But I'm a Republican who switched parties to vote for Bernie, so what do I know?
posted by kevinbelt


So what you're saying is, Bernie has strong backing in the Kevin Belt.
posted by duffell at 7:06 AM on March 15, 2016 [57 favorites]


Trump tweeted that Pete Rose has endorsed him, and said Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.

I lived several years on Cincinnati's west side which is where Rose is from, and the attitude that Rose should be in the HOF is an article of faith in much of Cincinnati, but especially on the west side. I also expect Trump to pick up those precincts by a land slide, and this will just cement it even more.
posted by mostly vowels at 7:08 AM on March 15, 2016


The question in my mind is not whether they'll endorse Trump outright. They won't. But every article attacking her during the national campaign once the primaries are over will be more fodder for moderates who might have voted for her to say, "Screw them both, I'll stay home on Election Day."

If Salon making note of true, problematic things that Clinton has said and done can cause potential supporters to sit the election out, she's as weak a candidate as many fear.
posted by threeants at 7:10 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


hope that things get so bad for minorities and poor people that they finally see the light and vote for who white, liberal leftists want them to

Tell that to the Arabs in Dearborn who voted against Sec. Clinton's bomb-first Middle East policies. Tell it to my white, black and brown friends and neighbors and coworkers and local elected officials, many of whom are deeply involved in anti-racist and anti-poverty work and who, if my facebook feed is any indication, are overwhelmingly supporting Sen. Sanders.

We actually don't take our marching orders from Salon, thanks.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:12 AM on March 15, 2016 [32 favorites]


if my facebook feed is any indication

What's the MOE on a Facebook feed these days?
posted by mpbx at 7:14 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


If Salon making note of true, problematic things that Clinton has said and done can cause potential supporters to sit the election out, she's as weak a candidate as many fear.

I don't think she is, personally. But if she takes the nomination, that shouldn't matter. No matter who the Democratic candidate is, once the conventions are over the only goal Democrats should have is to stop Trump from taking the Presidency.

Idealism is a wonderful thing. But principles mean jack shit if we allow tragedies to happen by inaction. And a Trump Presidency would be a tragedy. He's a petty, egomaniacal, thin-skinned, impulsive, immature racist moron that no one with an ounce of sanity would let anywhere near this country's military or nuclear arsenal. Or control over women's and minority rights.
posted by zarq at 7:14 AM on March 15, 2016 [58 favorites]


I kind of doubt that Salon has much pull these days (if it ever did).

I'm Canadian, and don't think much of Hillary, but I can't imagine how any lefty/progressive type could look at a Clinton/Trump matchup and think "Meh, they're basically the same, I'm not gonna bother voting."
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Florida voter here. I usually do early or absentee voting, but I forgot to do that this time. In related news, I also found out that my employer gives an hour of paid leave to go vote (!!!), so I went ahead and voted this morning on my way in.

The polls were pretty quiet, which is what I was hoping for, but I have no idea what the turnout will be like. It was relatively steady though, with a short line because of an issue with someone's ID (insert-rant-about-voter-ID-laws-here), but on the whole, things went pretty smoothly.

I'm in the capital, which means my county is reliably-liberal, but the surrounding counties are pretty deeply conservative--the exact demographic that seems to be capturing Trump's attention.

I figure my county will probably go for Bernie, and the rest, well, we'll see.
posted by PearlRose at 7:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I just want this primary season to be over so that I can put a bumper sticker on my car for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. Maybe I should just put both Hillary and Bernie stickers on my car now and peel off the loser in a few months.
posted by octothorpe at 7:19 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


>I'm agnostic enough between Sanders and Clinton that I am honestly not sure I will bother to vote

Can you do me a huge favour and go and give that vote to Sanders? If it's all the same to you it really isn't to me, and you'd make this internet stranger very happy.
posted by Dragonness at 7:20 AM on March 15, 2016 [41 favorites]


Expecting the media to black out any criticism of Clinton’s actions and words is deeply disrespectful to the memories of the children and adults in Iraq who were killed by the force she authorized; the Americans whose deaths from AIDS she verbally erased the other day; the students saddled with crushing loans whose for-profit debtors she and her husband took money from and gave patronage to; etc.
posted by threeants at 7:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


I was unable to vote in Ohio this morning because my change of address form apparently did not work. I'm pretty angry.

Depending on which part of the process the "wrong address" screwed up, you very well might be able to go back and force the issue if you have a utility bill in your name with your current address on it. Or you should at least be able to get a provisional ballot.

Ohio FAQ about voter ID

Ohio FAQ about provisional ballots
posted by soundguy99 at 7:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'm Canadian, and don't think much of Hillary, but I can't imagine how any lefty/progressive type could look at a Clinton/Trump matchup and think "Meh, they're basically the same, I'm not gonna bother voting."

That's not the issue. The issues are voter fatigue, not wanting to bother voting for the lesser of two evils, etc.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Ohio voter here. I strongly considered the strategic vote for Kasich, but ended up going for the idealistic vote for Sanders at the last minute.
posted by slogger at 7:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Well, my facebook feed is a pretty good cross-representation of political actors (alderpersons, representatives, neighborhood association staffers, progressive clergy, non-profit workers, activists) in my neighborhood. These are people in the trenches, not berniebro slacktivists.

I agree, it's not anything like a scientific poll. I never said it was. My point is that there are plenty of politically-active people of color and white allies who are supporting Sen. Sanders and the insinuation that we don't exist is pretty offensive.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:24 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


mmoncur: Ben Carson: Even if Trump's a bad president, it'll only be 4 years

Rather a different from the soundclip from NPR's coverage of Carson backing Trump:
"There's two different Donald Trumps," Carson continued. "There's the one you see on the stage, and the one who's very cerebral, sits there, and considers things very carefully. You can have a very good conversation with him. And that's the Donald Trump that you're going to start seeing more and more of right now."
Unspoken: The racist bigot was just his devil's mask, used to ramp up fear and hysteria. Now he'll become human again, concerned for the well-being of all Americans, as will be his job if he is president.


localhuman: My prediction: nobody has a clue what's going to happen today.

I know, I know! I'll putz around on MetaFilter for too long, get some work done, have some lunch, back to MetaFilter and more work, then head home. Success!
posted by filthy light thief at 7:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


If you live in Florida, please vote. Because my brother in law will be voting. And... well, please just vote. At least two of you.
posted by Naberius at 7:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [48 favorites]


I don't know a single Democrat in Ohio planning to vote strategically in the GOP primary. Not saying it won't happen but I really don't see that being A Thing.

Yeah, no way. Even though I would vote for any Dem for president over these Republican crazies, there was no way I was going to turn up the chance to vote against Ted Strickland. I think getting some decent gun control legislation through is one of the most important issues in our current political cycle, and Strickland's views on this are . . . scary.
posted by chainsofreedom at 7:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I can't imagine how any lefty/progressive type could look at a Clinton/Trump matchup and think "Meh, they're basically the same, I'm not gonna bother voting."

I have an acquaintance who feels this way. She prides herself on being extremely progressive and believes that, if Sanders doesn't win the nomination, a Trump election would bring about a leftist revolution. She also feels morally okay with voting for Trump because, since he's never held office, she can say that she's not voting for someone who's voted for a policy position she disagrees with. I don't agree with any of that logic but there it is.
posted by girlmightlive at 7:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also, I voted at 7 am this morning because I knew I wouldn't have the energy after work. The poll workers said that it had been steady for the past half hour, although not mobbed. Also also, why do all church basements smell the same?
posted by chainsofreedom at 7:29 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Urn coffee, hot dish and mildew?
posted by ian1977 at 7:31 AM on March 15, 2016 [24 favorites]


There's no real reason for Democrats to vote strategically.

Long shot that the Republican convention could be contested, i.e. Trump doesn't start with enough delegates to win on the first vote, and if he doesn't then for each vote after more and more delegates are free-range. Kasich taking Ohio is a cornerstone of this, so if any Ohio Dems want to increase the chance of Trump losing the nomination, a vote for Kasich does have some strategic value.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:31 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Sam Wang has the probability of Clinton v. Trump at higher than 80%. It'll go up after today, I suspect.
posted by persona au gratin at 7:32 AM on March 15, 2016


point is that there are plenty of politically-active people of color and white allies who are supporting Sen. Sanders and the insinuation that we don't exist is pretty offensive.

Never intended to insinuate as such. Apologies.
posted by mpbx at 7:32 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Plenty of us Michigan D voters did not pull an R ballot to vote strategically, and were pleasantly surprised with the results.
posted by klarck at 7:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Sam Wang has the probability of Clinton v. Trump at higher than 80%.

I don't know who Sam Wang is, but at this point, the race is so unpredictable, I would not be surprised if neither Clinton or Trump were the nominees.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:34 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


"Gore and Bush. Both the same." While at the same time thinking that Bush might bring about a socialist revolution.

The Revolution isn't coming, people. Change happens slowly here, and it's always the result of hard work and smart voting.
posted by persona au gratin at 7:34 AM on March 15, 2016 [40 favorites]


Wang is the dude at Princeton who's better than Silver at forecasting.
posted by persona au gratin at 7:35 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Missouri voter! I have strategically voted in the past, such as McCain in the 2000 primary. I strongly considered it this time around, but then I looked at the Republican ballot. I couldn't even consider giving my vote to one of those assholes, even in the name of Stop Trump.
posted by aabbbiee at 7:35 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Yeah, "hope for the racist authoritarian monster so it'll inspire leftist revolution" is the most idiotic form of slacktivism I have ever encountered.
posted by duffell at 7:37 AM on March 15, 2016 [76 favorites]


Another Ohio voter, who considered a strategic vote for Kasich, despite the large number of pro- Planned Parenthood rallies I've gone to, and full knowledge of the type of supreme court justice he would nominate. I went Dem instead, mostly for the down ballot races.
posted by damayanti at 7:37 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Any real chance of a Clinton-Sanders ticket?
posted by zakur at 7:38 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Seriously, don't you just get Cruz if you stop Trump? I'd rather have Trump. If Trump is Warren Ellis' "Beast", then Cruz is "The Smiler".
posted by selfnoise at 7:38 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


i'm so annoyed with the tiny dishonesties of this election season. for instance, that salon article? - Sorry, Hillary, but we’re done: Keep repeating racist myths and praising Kissinger and the Reagans. I’m switching to Bernie Sanders - that sounds like someone who just made up their mind, no? like they had switched sides? weird then that last month that very same author wrote Hillary Clinton’s self-satisfied privilege: Her Goldman Sachs problem helps explain the popularity of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump (and poking around at some of his work elsewhere shows him to have been pretty anti-hillary for at least a while).
posted by nadawi at 7:39 AM on March 15, 2016 [30 favorites]


> "Yeah, 'hope for the racist authoritarian monster so it'll inspire leftist revolution' is the most idiotic form of slacktivism I have ever encountered."

Baldrick: No, wait. We do nothing ... until our heads have actually been cut off.
Blackadder: And then we ... spring into action?
posted by kyrademon at 7:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [42 favorites]


Rather a different from the soundclip from NPR's coverage of Carson backing Trump

NPR giving Republicans the benefit of mushy, they-aren't-really-that-extreme coverage? You don't say.

But they buried the lede: conservative favorite Carson admitted the primary battles are just a dog-and-pony show and none of them really mean any of it (this is at the end of the story, mind):
Both men attempted to move past that history during the Friday morning press conference.

"The one person that just kept sneaking up on me - I couldn't lose him - was Dr. Ben Carson. ...And so I started going after Ben" said Trump, bluntly acknowledging the political calculations that go into political attacks. "It's politics. Ben understands that. And I was really impressed by the way he fought back. Because he fought back with silence and strength."

"We buried the hatchet," said Carson. "That was political stuff. And that happens in American politics."
Count me among the Democratic voters (I used to be willing to vote Republican before the latter became a lockstep parliamentary party and a vote for, say, Dick Lugar became tantamount to a vote for Jeff Sessions, Joni Ernst or Ted Cruz) who will vote for either Hillary or Bernie in the general.
posted by Gelatin at 7:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I don't know who Sam Wang is, but at this point, the race is so unpredictable, I would not be surprised if neither Clinton or Trump were the nominees.

What has been so unpredictable? Trump has been the frontrunner in the GOP primary since June, and has held a massive lead over his rivals ever since. Clinton has been the frontrunner in the Democratic race since 2009 and even now that the race has narrowed, she holds a a 10 point national polling average lead and a substantial delegate lead.

For all the noise and bluster and "narrative," this primary has been extremely predictable. It's just that some people are in denial.
posted by mpbx at 7:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Any real chance of a Clinton-Sanders ticket?

No, Bernie Sanders would not run with her.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]




Wang is super good and I'm glad that he's showing up because 538 has been pretty light on content and somewhat heavy on punditry recently.

Personally I suspect the following:

Republicans-
Trump wins everything but Ohio and continues his death march to the nomination
Rubio does awful in Florida and drops out tomorrow
Kasich wins Ohio but too little too late maybe it will be enough to get a contested convention but it seems unlikely because I don't see Cruz and Kasich winning many more states.

Trump gains more of a delegate lead butmaybe falls behind the 100% pace that he needs.

Democrats-
Clinton wins Florida and NC by convincing margins.
Sanders wins Missouri by 3 points
Clinton and Sanders effectively split Illinois and Ohio with Clinton probably winning Illinois and Sanders maybe pulling the upset in Ohio.

Sanders wins some battles but continues to lose the war as Clinton pads her lead by a decent number of net delegates. I suspect her lead will be at least 250 by the end of the day.
posted by vuron at 7:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


For all the noise and bluster and "narrative," this primary has been extremely predictable. It's just that some people are in denial.

I mean, there's no need for you to be rude about it. But Michigan last week was extremely unpredictable, and I find it unpredictable and horrifying that Trump is still the frontrunner when he is probably going to get someone killed, very soon.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Expecting the media to black out any criticism of Clinton’s actions and words is deeply disrespectful to the memories of the children and adults in Iraq who were killed by the force she authorized; the Americans whose deaths from AIDS she verbally erased the other day; the students saddled with crushing loans whose for-profit debtors she and her husband took money from and gave patronage to; etc.

This has all been reported on at length for the last few months, and at least in response to her Iraq vote and the AIDS disaster, she has also responded at length. There's nothing wrong with acknowledging and reporting what has happened and holding her accountable. But at some point Americans are going to have to vote for one candidate or the other, and if she becomes the candidate we owe it to ourselves to not shoot ourselves in the face over who sits behind the Resolute desk for the next 4 years.

We also have a responsibility towards those whose rights will surely be stripped away and to those whose lives will be screwed over in other ways if Trump takes the Presidency.
posted by zarq at 7:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


Any real chance of a Clinton-Sanders ticket?

No, for the same reason the idea of a Obama-Clinton ticket was a non-starter. The VP slot is almost insulting.

Sanders on a Clinton cabinet is a different matter, but the places he'd arguably be most effective are currently positions with little regard (Interior, HHS, Labor) and I see no evidence that he'd be effective at State or Defense, but...

...hmm. Treasury is interesting. Put the man in the exact department tasked with the economy -- and tasked with regulating the markets. Sanders as SecTres means he can go after Wall Street big time.

Except I doubt that Clinton would do that, because, well, one of the reasons there are Sanders supporters is Clinton's ties to Wall Street. But if you wanted to send a clear message that those ties don't mean anything, announcing Sanders as SecTreas during the general election campaign would be a big way to do just that.
posted by eriko at 7:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


> "Seriously, don't you just get Cruz if you stop Trump?"

Well ... no, not necessarily. "Stopping Trump" at this point means "the Republicans have a contested convention", not "Cruz wins" -- Cruz winning outright would be almost impossible at this point. And no one honestly really knows who would come out of a contested convention with the nomination. While there are rules about who is eligible, those rules can literally be changed last minute.

"Stopping Trump" at this point means "throw everything in a blender and hope something horrible doesn't come out, because it's the only thing not *guaranteed* to produce something horrible".
posted by kyrademon at 7:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Sanders looks stronger than he is because the GOP realizes that any of their ridiculous candidates could beat him once $1 billion is spent telling Americans how much Sanders would want to raise their taxes and scaring old people about loss of medical control

Hillary on the other hand has been beat in the press and especially republican news outlets every day for years

If Sanders takes her down I think we will have a gold plated White House next year. I hope he does not win any of these states today and I wish that he would do the right thing and drop out
posted by knoyers at 7:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


a Trump election would bring about a leftist revolution

The Helter Skelter demographic
posted by beerperson at 7:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Seriously, don't you just get Cruz if you stop Trump? I'd rather have Trump.

This is Mr. Freedom's view. He says Trump winning at least would keep an anti-Planned-Parenthood advocate out of the Oval Office.
posted by chainsofreedom at 7:46 AM on March 15, 2016


Being the spouse of a teacher in Ohio, I have no love for Kasich, but even I have to admit that this negative ad (WARNING: Trump ad) run by the Trump campaign is pretty disingenuous.

I'm convinced at this point that Trump is a disciple of Alistair Crowley. He's bending reality to match his vision by repeating magick spells (ie, lies). He just tosses stuff out there, like that that guy who charged him at the rally might have been affiliated with ISIS - he read it on the internet, you know - , and lets his followers eat it up while the rest of watch on in horror.
posted by charred husk at 7:47 AM on March 15, 2016


No, Bernie Sanders would not run with her.

For the same reason Elizabeth Warren won't -- a Northeasterner adds no regional pull to the ticket, and both Sanders and Warren have more power in the Senate.
posted by Gelatin at 7:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Sanders looks stronger than he is because the GOP realizes that any of their ridiculous candidates could beat him once $1 billion is spent telling Americans how much Sanders would want to raise their taxes and scaring old people about loss of medical control

I'm gonna be frank - I don't think that kind of political strategy works in this climate. That's like saying that evangelicals were right to count on anti gay marriage positions because it always brought out the vote. 2 Obama terms later and the legality of gay marriage nationwide seems to put the lie to that.

It's a different time now even from 2008.
posted by chainsofreedom at 7:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


I have a hard time imagining a Cruz nomination coming out of a contested convention. If it gets to the smoke filled rooms stage, everyone in that smoke filled room will despise Ted Cruz.

(Christ, I literally think Trump is at the front of a neo-fascist putsch, and I'd rather have him than Cruz.)
posted by Naberius at 7:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Hillary on the other hand has been beat in the press and especially republican news outlets every day for years

This is a common but curious talking point for Hillary supporters. "She's been terrible for years."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


For the same reason Elizabeth Warren won't -- a Northeasterner adds no regional pull to the ticket, and both Sanders and Warren have more power in the Senate.

And that he doesn't want to be Vice President.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Sanders looks stronger than he is because the GOP realizes that any of their ridiculous candidates could beat him once $1 billion is spent telling Americans how much Sanders would want to raise their taxes and scaring old people about loss of medical control

They're going to say that about anybody who wins the nomination. If fucking Zombie Reagan was the Dem nominee, they'd call him a socialist just like they do with Sanders and Clinton and Obama.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:50 AM on March 15, 2016 [23 favorites]


i stopped being surprised by trump's frontrunner status when one day social media was blanketed with "trump : no laughing matter anymore!" and within days it was all about the donald being attacked by a bird. "this is serious!...lololol did you see the face he made when the bird flapped its wings?!?!"

but what do i know, i've never found his foray into politics to be funny.
posted by nadawi at 7:51 AM on March 15, 2016




I think fears that his primary cycle has heaped too much criticism against Hillary for Democrats to be able to vote for her in November are overblown. Hate and fear of Trump will trump hate and fear of Clinton. Plus, there can always be a message of "make her president in 2016 and primary her in 2020"- if she fails to live up to the populist agitation of this moment.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:52 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Sanders won't be the VP.

He's from the Northeast so no geographic diversity, he's old so the combined age of the ticket is an issue and doesn't bring minority turnout with him.

Long story shot Clinton will almost certainly select a Latino running mate because it will strengthen the anti-Trump coalition. Unfortunately I think sexism will prevent the VP choice from being a woman which is a shame because I think a dual female ticket would be pretty fun.

As much as people like Warren I don't see her being a serious pick for either Clinton or Sanders mainly because she's from the NE and the Democrats will likely want to keep her in reserve if the apocalypse happens and the Brownshirts take control of the White House. You know assuming that Trump doesn't suspend voting.
posted by vuron at 7:52 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


This is a common but curious talking point for Hillary supporters. "She's been terrible for years."

The mods have repeatedly asked that we stop doing the the whole "Sanders supporters are like this and Clinton supporters are like that" thing, so it'd be great if we didn't keep on doing it.
posted by zombieflanders at 7:52 AM on March 15, 2016 [24 favorites]


I'm gonna be frank - I don't think that kind of political strategy works in this climate.

Trump is literally telling people at his rallies that someone who charged the stage in Dayton, Ohio is a member of ISIS, and those audiences believe him. Alternet has him lying at a rate of once every five minutes. People are still voting for him.

It's a different time now even from 2008.

Yes. Astonishingly, people seem to be getting stupider and more gullible. How do we know? Trump's candidacy wasn't laughed off the ballots.
posted by zarq at 7:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


I have friends who live in downtown Cleveland (like, literally in Playhouse Square), and they are renting out their apartment for the Republican Convention and getting the hell out of Dodge.
posted by chainsofreedom at 7:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Long story shot Clinton will almost certainly select a Latino running mate because it will strengthen the anti-Trump coalition.

If she is the nominee, I would be very surprised if she doesn't select Sherrod Brown.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I have a hard time imagining a Cruz nomination coming out of a contested convention.

If it's honestly contested, I have a hard time believing *any* of them come out of it. Instead, it's going to be somebody else, because one of the reasons the GOP is in this fix is that people who support Trump/Cruz/Rubio (pick 1) won't support Rubio/Trump/Cruz (pick the other two.)

If Cruz-Rubio supporters got along, one of them would be the GOP nominee right now. They don't and won't, and thus, the chances of any of them getting the nod are nil. Expect the GOP to basically say "None of you won, so all of you lose."

That's actually a risk for the Democrats, because they could (chances are low, I agree) actually pick a good candidate and make this an actual race.

If it's dishonestly contested (that is, they pull rule trickery and prevent Trump from the first ballot win he would have gotten) then it turns into a war in the GOP. I don't think they're that dumb.
posted by eriko at 7:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I wonder how much triangulating for VP pick Clinton will really be looking to do, given that her husband picked a fellow young moderate Southerner as his VP, and that worked out all right for Bill.
posted by Etrigan at 7:56 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


a two female ticket would also being interesting because should hillary find herself in the big chair and she has a male vp, i suspect we'll see the vp get a sudden outsized role in the administration and in the media focus just by virtue of being the man in the room, sadly.
posted by nadawi at 7:56 AM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


If she is the nominee, I would be very surprised if she doesn't select Sherrod Brown.

Don't pick a D senator right now. That's the *last* fucking thing you need to do is pull another red or purple state D out of the senate.

Pulling Hilary Clinton or Barak Obama out of the Senate is one thing (though Blago fucked things up and we ended up with Kirk) but the odds are good that putting Brown into the west wing means that seat goes R, and if you want Clinton or Sanders to do anything but veto, if you actually want them appointing people, you need the Senate controlled by the Democrats, and you cannot risk losing a seat.

Yes, the races favor the Democrats, but favor does not mean "ensure."
posted by eriko at 7:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [35 favorites]


I'm not American but worry about the flogging Sanders would take in the run up. All the media needs to run with is a single, mildly embarrassing video clip, and then all the flaccid "undecideds" are fearful about backing a loser.
posted by bonobothegreat at 7:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I worry about the electoral future of the Democratic party if only candidates from Vermont or Massachusetts have records that are ideologically pure enough to make it through the primary.

We're lucky that Barack Obama had such a short runway to the presidency. If he'd been around long enough to face some tough votes in the Senate, he might've had a harder path to the nomination.
posted by mpbx at 7:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


There's something Faustian about this Chris Christie stuff. Except it's like he sold his soul in a really bad deal, and the devil showed up like immediately to drag him into hell.
posted by angrycat at 7:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [27 favorites]


Brokered convention chat! The fun part of that conversation is realizing that despite the looming threat of a Trump third party challenge aside, the GOP has nothing but fallen idols. Who could they put forth to try to stir the base? The failed aristo Romney? The embattled, embearded Ryan? The pro-choice, emBushed Rice? Newt Gingrich? Not only the Republicans have spent all of their time crafting candidates that have no crossover appeal, they don't even have anyone who could cut into the appeal of Trump's base, at least not very much.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Just btw, the link above about a possible Clinton/Sanders ticket is from Talking Points Memo. In it, Tad Devine, a senior Sanders strategist, is quoted hypothesizing about the possibility of Sanders joining Clinton as a VP.
posted by Slothrop at 7:59 AM on March 15, 2016


Cleveland orders 2,000 sets of riot gear for Republican Convention

Why? Don't GOP supporters carry their own?
posted by eriko at 7:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


should hillary find herself in the big chair and she has a male vp, i suspect we'll see the vp get a sudden outsized role in the administration and in the media focus just by virtue of being the man in the room, sadly.

Naw, the Veep just isn't that interesting. Unless the Senate is tied or nearly so.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


well, the big question no one asks is who's going to be trump's vp?
posted by pyramid termite at 8:00 AM on March 15, 2016


I worry about the electoral future of the Democratic party if only candidates from Vermont or Massachusetts have records that are ideologically pure enough to make it through the primary.

The nerve of people having standards!
posted by entropicamericana at 8:00 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


>well, the big question no one asks is who's going to be trump's vp?

Why, Ivanka, of course.
posted by Dragonness at 8:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Gary Busey.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Long story shot Clinton will almost certainly select a Latino running mate because it will strengthen the anti-Drumpf coalition.

My money's on Julian Castro.

In the Never-Going-To Happen category: the Clinton/Sanders ticket would be great, mostly because it would cause at least a few hours of gobsmacked peace as their fightiest respective supporters* try to figure it out.

*I'll be fine with whichever one of them wins the nomination, honestly. I just want Drumpf to lose.
posted by thivaia at 8:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


well, the big question no one asks is who's going to be trump's vp?

Well, Chris Christie spent yesterday allowing himself to be humiliated and degraded (although many would say deservedly so) on live TV in front of millions, so...
posted by zombieflanders at 8:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


> "well, the big question no one asks is who's going to be trump's vp?"

We're not going to find out until the final episode of the Reality Show.
posted by kyrademon at 8:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Omarosa
posted by goneill at 8:04 AM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


At this point, he'd be wise to pick someone who would provoke more controversy than he has. Someone who would distract the country while he runs it into bankruptcy. Someone like Omarosa Manigault.
posted by zarq at 8:04 AM on March 15, 2016


Jinx, goneill :D
posted by zarq at 8:04 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


We're not going to find out until the final episode of the Reality Show.

um, isn't that when trump puts his big fat orange finger on the button?
posted by pyramid termite at 8:06 AM on March 15, 2016


> "um, isn't that when trump puts his big fat orange finger on the button?"

You're impatient for Season 2 already?
posted by kyrademon at 8:07 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


That's the second season cliffhanger.
posted by mochapickle at 8:07 AM on March 15, 2016


His short little vulgar finger, surely
posted by kelborel at 8:08 AM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Definitely Omarosa.

If Clinton gets the nom vs. Trump, my VP money is on Julian Castro, Cory Booker, or Antonio Villaraigosa. She's not so naive as to think that white people won't be overwhelmingly Trumpist in the general. She knows she'll be needing support from the rest of America.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:08 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


(Can we not with the insults about the way someone looks. Not okay about Clinton, not okay about Trump.)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:08 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


"they could (chances are low, I agree) actually pick a good candidate and make this an actual race"

Unlikely. That's how we've gotten to this point. If there were a good Republican candidate, he would have already declared and started winning primaries. Kasich is probably the textbook good candidate (popular two-term governor of a swing state with a strong legislative background who can appeal to moderates despite being extremely orthodox), and he's polling in the single digits everywhere except Ohio. Scott Walker is another "good candidate", and he dropped out before the voting even started because he couldn't crack 1% in polls. There just isn't a very long bench in the GOP these days. Paul Ryan is basically all that's left.
posted by kevinbelt at 8:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Cory Booker is from New Jersey. That does her no good.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:09 AM on March 15, 2016


Castro is the odds on favorite because Young and Latino and totally unlikely to win a statewide office in Texas.

Corey Booker would be awesome but NJ makes him unlikely same with Deval Patrick.

Tom Perez is seen as another possible candidate because he's Latino and has solid track record at Labor and Justice.

Much longer odds would be someone like Anthony Foxx, O'Malley, or Bayh.
posted by vuron at 8:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Booker and Villaraigosa are from solid blue states, yes.

Counterpoint: Biden is from Delaware.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:11 AM on March 15, 2016


slacktivists

Man this term bugs me. Stop doing political engagement wrong! Oh, you care about the course of the nation ? Well yeah but you don't care enough. You certainly aren't caring in a way that matters!

No sensible person thinks that posting memes or whinging on facebook wins elections, and getting people to go out and pound the ground and vote for more than President - and in non-presidential elections - is important. But to paraphrase Milton, they also serve who only stand and wait to cast a vote and go home.

There's a dude in my facebook friends who I used to work with almost ten years ago. He's probably mid-30s now. For two major elections in my memory he's posted things along the lines of they're all the same, lesser evil is not a choice he's willing to make, don't vote it encourages them blah blah blah.

His first pro-Bernie post showed up in my feed late last year. He went out and voted in the Virginia primary for Bernie, where Bern lost 2:1. But he's still engaged now, two weeks later. I don't know if that'll mean a general vote if Bernie's not on the ballot; he might check back out.

But for now, he's interested in political goings-ons and he's gone out to the ballot box. Maybe for the first time; I know he didn't vote in the 2004. Why do we want to sneer at people who choose to leave the majority of folks who don't vote and get interested, just because it's kind of a weak interest/involvement? Has that shit ever made one of them decide hey, I should really shape up and go make some calls and a donation.

Fuck that. People want to give a damn about politics and get a taste for taking action, I'm going to call that a win and say thanks.
posted by phearlez at 8:11 AM on March 15, 2016 [56 favorites]


Naw, the Veep just isn't that interesting. Unless the Senate is tied or nearly so.

we've painfully learned that what is interesting is what the media tells us is interesting. if a male vp wanted to make his name all it would take is passive aggressively disagreeing with president clinton to get things going. or it could go the other way and everyone could praise him for things she does. women are often not given credit for their own successes - i mean, you only have to notice some of hillary's supporters saying they're voting for her to get another 4 to 8 years of bill clinton or obama to see this play out right in front of us.
posted by nadawi at 8:11 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


I'm starting to worry that Trump's election would be the literal Apocalypse.
posted by Faint of Butt at 8:13 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I also wonder this about having our first First Gentleman, if Hillary wins. Especially since that First Gentleman will be Bill, a man so charismatic that he has a magnetic pull on everyone in the room from the second he walks in (quote from MomFreedom, who met him in the 90s). Will we see an expansion of the activities of the First Spouse now that there is a chance that that spouse will be male?
posted by chainsofreedom at 8:14 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Didn't somebody bring up Rick Scott for Trump VP at some point? Seems perfect. Floridian, actual crook, looks like the bad guy from Lawnmower Man.
posted by selfnoise at 8:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


I'm starting to worry that Trump's election would be the literal Apocalypse.

That would explain his evangelical support.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Biden as eternal VP would also be really fun because who else is willing to wash his Trans Am on the White House driveway.
posted by vuron at 8:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


Naw, the Veep just isn't that interesting.

The entire last thirty years of U.S. presidential electoral history is a direct outgrowth of Ronald Reagan's selection of George H.W. Bush in 1980. Interesting? Maybe not. Important? Bet yer ass.
posted by Etrigan at 8:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]




Rubio would actually be a perfect running mate for Hillary if he were a Democrat.
posted by fraxil at 8:17 AM on March 15, 2016


Shoot, my bad. Lawnmower Man 2.
posted by selfnoise at 8:17 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Who could they put forth to try to stir the base? The failed aristo Romney? The embattled, embearded Ryan?

I mean, the Romney/Ryan ticket did get 47% last time - I suppose there's a chance that the Republican establishment hopes that a "not-crazy" candidate has an actual shot at winning.

But mostly (IMO) a contested convention would be about the establishment beating the Trump Rebellion into submission; they'd resign themselves to losing this time around but start the process of rejiggering the party optics and structure (i.e., it wouldn't surprise me if there are Republican super-delegates in 2020.)
posted by soundguy99 at 8:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


What I want to see most is Bernie doing well in Illinois tonight, for his electoral prospects, but also to make Hillary pay a political price for her ties to the corrupt, soulless "centrist" Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel. That's a healthy precedent to set and good God I have enjoyed watching Sanders rail on Rahm:

"The mayor has no problem putting pressure on teachers when he wants concessions from them. He has no problem arm-twisting the parents on the South Side or the West Side when he wants to close their schools. He is really tough, isn't he? Taking on the children and the parents. But he ain't so tough taking on the big money interests on Wall Street."
posted by airing nerdy laundry at 8:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


NYTimes: Upheaval at Breitbart News as Workers Resign and Accusations Fly

Everything is terrible and the threat of fascism is far to close, but the collapse of Brietbart would be a tiny sliver of joy in that, because fuck those guys.
posted by Artw at 8:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [48 favorites]


Years ago, I set my browser auto-replace plugin to change all instances of "Rick Scott" to "Off-brand Lex Luthor," and I'd completely forgotten about it until now. *chortle*
posted by duffell at 8:19 AM on March 15, 2016 [55 favorites]


Counterpoint: Biden is from Delaware.

Obama didn't need to make an additional state competitive, because his race meant he would be polarizing and his ability to strip votes away from his opponent would be weakened. Obama needed to shore up his portion of the white vote who would be willing to vote for a black man but also subconsciously needed reassurance that a white guy would be around to "lend a hand." Joe Biden is whiter than Ron Howard in a jar of mayonnaise, so he fit the bill perfectly.
posted by mightygodking at 8:19 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Rick Scott for Trump VP at some point? Seems perfect. Floridian, actual crook, looks like the bad guy from Lawnmower Man.

No. I won't have this. No, sir.

The canonical visual comparison for Rick Scott is Bat Boy, beating out Voldemort by a hair. Hair? Get it? Because he's bald.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:20 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


There is a non-insignificant chance of Trump starting his own political party if he gets robbed of the nomination at the convention. I think a lot of Trump voters are truly ready to leave the Republican party, and who knows maybe some Sanders supporters would see the appeal too.
posted by fraxil at 8:20 AM on March 15, 2016


Another election today.... Chicago Top Prosecutor Accused of Clearing 68 Killer Cops Fights to Keep Her Job: In 2008, Anita Alvarez became Chicago's first woman and first Latina state's attorney. After a tenure marred with cover-ups and controversy, many Chicagoans are no longer on her side. Now, whether she keeps her seat is up to the city.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Unlike clinton, sanders would raise taxes for even the very poor. People might vote for higher taxes for someone else but many will not vote for higher taxation for themselves. Sanders would tax every group more than clinton would.

I think a lot of hysteria against single payer among older voters would be easy and effective, given the past

Sanders' success in primaries with young white voters does not show that he is going to be able to win conservative swing states in a general election after what will be an unprecedented advertising barrage

His views are actually far removed from most Americans

Not a risk I'm comfortable with

Hillary is vulnerable too but not like that
posted by knoyers at 8:23 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Unlike clinton, sanders would raise taxes for even the very poor.

Cite?
posted by Radiophonic Oddity at 8:25 AM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


Fascinating analysis from Sam Wang: Losing Ohio Improves Trump’s Chances to Win the Nomination
posted by kelborel at 8:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


George Takei shared this viewpoint on Trump vs Sanders on Facebook.

It made me very happy indeed.
posted by the cydonian at 8:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Personally I would have more faith in Sanders' revolution if he were further left - on Snowden, federal legalization of marijuana, etc.

The more time goes on, there's no there there really with his campaign, and it's just so weaksauce to bang on about the revolution as the only answer.

I know this will prompt people to add a bunch of links and tell me to read more about Sanders and also watch these here videos, but really. This is my opinion based on my own research.
posted by zutalors! at 8:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Hmm. Google' doing some kind of infobox thing if you search the candidates names. Not sure if that's stepping over a line.
posted by Artw at 8:30 AM on March 15, 2016


Let's be honest Clinton doesn't need to expand the Battleground state lists hardly at all in order to win the Presidency although honestly I expect Democrats to be competitive in NC.

Clinton's strategy will be to be competitive in Ohio but mainly to focus on denying Florida and Virginia to Trump. If Florida goes democrat there is virtually no way that the Republicans can win.

I suspect that Clinton will choose Castro mainly because he helps put NC/Virginia into play (the share of minority voters in NC has gone up dramatically) and helps lock down Florida and Colorado. Hell he might even help in Arizona but I think the snowbirds will continue to keep Arizona safely Republican another election cycle although I think the Republican stronghold of Phoenix-Scottsdale is dying off (figuratively and literally).
posted by vuron at 8:30 AM on March 15, 2016


I think a lot of hysteria against single payer among older voters would be easy and effective, given the past

The only way hysterics would happen in that demographic is by telling them you're taking away their single-payer Medicare.
posted by mikelieman at 8:30 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Unlike clinton, sanders would raise taxes for even the very poor.

Cite?


Here's the proposal breakdown. Sanders says this would be offset by savings from the abolition of health insurance premiums under Medicare for All.

"Most taxpayers would see a single-digit increase in their marginal tax rate. People with taxable income below $250,000 would see an 8.8 percentage point increase."
posted by mpbx at 8:30 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


The only real things knoyers could be talking about are the 0.2% payroll tax to cover paid family and medical leave, and the 2.2% Medicare For All premium. Both of these would be more than made up for in any low- or mid-income household's budget by no longer having to pay for private health insurance. (Source)
posted by Faint of Butt at 8:30 AM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


Counterpoint: Biden is from Delaware.

Obama didn't need to make an additional state competitive, because his race meant he would be polarizing and his ability to strip votes away from his opponent would be weakened. Obama needed to shore up his portion of the white vote who would be willing to vote for a black man but also subconsciously needed reassurance that a white guy would be around to "lend a hand." Joe Biden is whiter than Ron Howard in a jar of mayonnaise, so he fit the bill perfectly.


Oh for sure, and I'm not saying Biden was a bad pick, not at all -- rather that the importance of picking a swing-stater for your running mate is overestimated, relative to other tactical considerations. I think the benefit to Clinton of picking a Hispanic or African-American VP (aiming to increase minority and progressive turnout across the nation) would be greater than the benefit of your Sherrod Brown or your Bill Nelson.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:31 AM on March 15, 2016


Hillary is one of those big, beautiful, fast Clipper ships built in the waning days of sail. Sanders is a plodding side-wheel steamer. Though she probably wins the nom, and maybe wins the general, the future will never belong to her.
posted by klarck at 8:31 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


I don't like that comparison because those old ships are lovely :(
posted by saturday_morning at 8:32 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Cleveland orders 2,000 sets of riot gear for Republican Convention

That's a win for commerce AND the police state! The system works!
posted by filthy light thief at 8:32 AM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Sanders says this would be offset by savings from the abolition of health insurance premiums under Medicare for All.

How wouldn't I save money by cutting out the middleman health insurance companies and paying straight into a trust-fund like FICA? I can't imagine very many HR people having trouble replacing the yearly kowtowing to the HMO with a straight 6.5%

Way I see the numbers, under Bernie-care, my family saves a few grand.
posted by mikelieman at 8:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


And saves my employer even more...
posted by mikelieman at 8:34 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


And then we can roll out a single, nationwide, EHR system, and then have more money for patient care!
posted by mikelieman at 8:35 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]




The future really doesn't belong to Sanders either because let's be honest he was unable to build a compelling case to minority voters until way too late and baring an epic meltdown by Clinton he's exceedingly unlikely to be the nominee.

That being said if someone can do a convincing job of aligning both progressives (economic justice) with minority groups (racial and social justice) in a compelling (and charismatic) package then the future looks very very bright.

The major question is whether the Republicans will pivot fast enough to capture the voters that will no doubt feel left out by a new Democratic Coalition.
posted by vuron at 8:37 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


2.2% tax increase and .2% payroll tax applies for everyone. The average tax burden would go up by $9k. And that doesn't include the additional 6.2% payroll tax that employers would pay would be passed on in many or most instances

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/04/pf/taxes/bernie-sanders-taxes/

Many voters will not see this as a good trade given that "government controlled" health care is still unpopular (if single payer that was even in the cards in the foreseeable future)

If Sanders is the nominee the Republicans have a great deal of strong new material to work with and I think they would win. They wouldn't even have to be deceptive in their ads, although they will be
posted by knoyers at 8:38 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Thanks for the link, mpbx.

A 6.2 percent income-based premium paid by employers on wage income. This is basically a payroll tax, and most economists agree that the cost of "employer-paid" payroll taxes are passed on entirely to workers in the form of lower wages in the long run. For that reason, I'm treating all payroll taxes as paid by employees, regardless of their ostensible target.

My view is that the very poor, who knoyers said would get a tax increase, are already getting the lowest wages around, and that there's not much of a floor below what they get paid. I don't think that it's fair to count the employer portion as paid by the employee regarding this population in particular.
posted by Radiophonic Oddity at 8:38 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


There is a non-insignificant chance of Trump starting his own political party if he gets robbed of the nomination at the convention. I think a lot of Trump voters are truly ready to leave the Republican party, and who knows maybe some Sanders supporters would see the appeal too.

I think the opposite scenario is more likely. At the convention, the RNC supports Trump because going back on their word and disenfranchising millions of party faithful who voted for him would be political suicide. But disgusted conservatives led by pundits such as Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson either join together to support the Constitution Party candidate or they form their own political party and nominate someone more palatable. Trump can't claim the RNC isn't keeping their word.
posted by zarq at 8:39 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Not sure that the very poor see it that way, that there's nothing beneath where they are. Every dollar that you take from them counts for something they need. And they may not be paying for insurance now
posted by knoyers at 8:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


For those considering not voting: Please do cast a vote. Not to decide is to decide.
posted by DesbaratsDays at 8:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Both of these would be more than made up for in any low- or mid-income household's budget by no longer having to pay for private health insurance.

A tax that's 'more than made up for' in reducing other costs is still a tax though. It's a GOOD TAX INCREASE, which I am putting in all caps to make clear that I don't have any problem with it being a tax increase, but that doesn't make it not a tax.
posted by cjelli at 8:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


That being said if someone can do a convincing job of aligning both progressives (economic justice) with minority groups (racial and social justice) in a compelling (and charismatic) package then the future looks very very bright.

The nice thing is that, however dreadful this campaign is, it's already demonstrated that such a combo would be electorally viable in 2020 and beyond, Clinton presidency or no Clinton presidency.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yeah, I don't think anyone (here, at least) would disagree that Sanders's tax plan is good policy, but it's very obviously bad politics and would be an albatross around his neck in the general election.
posted by mpbx at 8:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Unlike clinton, sanders would raise taxes for even the very poor. People might vote for higher taxes for someone else but many will not vote for higher taxation for themselves. Sanders would tax every group more than clinton would.

Republicans get away with it all the time, not sure why this time is somehow different.

I think a lot of hysteria against single payer among older voters would be easy and effective, given the past

If it wasn't enough to sink Obama in 2012, when his not-even-universal private health care system was being described as a fascist socialist takeover of the health insurance industry, I see no reason why it would sink Sanders.

Sanders' success in primaries with young white voters does not show that he is going to be able to win conservative swing states in a general election after what will be an unprecedented advertising barrage

Still don't see any evidence of this at all.

His views are actually far removed from most Americans

Are you sure? 58% of Americans support single-payer health care. "Anger at Wall Street" is one of the rare things that unites Ds and Rs. At this point "Bernie's views aren't like most Americans" is more a weird dogwhistle-y way conservatives are portraying Sanders than actual fact.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [32 favorites]


"That being said if someone can do a convincing job of aligning both progressives (economic justice) with minority groups (racial and social justice) in a compelling (and charismatic) package then the future looks very very bright."

Wasn't that the appeal of Obama?
posted by kevinbelt at 8:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I still fail to see how the very poor are going to face any tax increase. They make so little that they don't pay income tax, and their wages are so low that employers won't be able to pass on payroll tax increases. Or is being very poor that different than 6 years ago, when I was finally able to move out of that population?
posted by Radiophonic Oddity at 8:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Wasn't that the appeal of Obama?

The guy won two elections and would probably win a third fairly easily if it was legal.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Why are we even discussing single-payer like it's remotely likely to actually happen in the next decade? Republicans have a stranglehold on the house due to their stranglehold on State Legislatures and because congressional apportionment as a deeply partisan affair in most states. This is unlikely to change anytime soon and the 2020 demographic changes that will happen in the census are unlikely to change this significantly as population shifts will largely reflect population growth in Southern Republican states and population losses in Midwest and NE cities.

The idea that the Democrats will get a majority in the House and a progressive 60 senators (enough to actually get a single-payer system past a filibuster) in the next 10 years is exceedingly unlikely. The brief period that Obama had that was 4 months and there were never 60 progressive votes among Democrats.

Short of the Republican party imploding I just don't think it's possible even if I am willing to concede that economically speaking it might be a good thing.

That being said I think we can achieve universal coverage without necessarily going to a single-payer model.
posted by vuron at 8:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


I currently pay about $7200/yr in insurance premiums to insure myself, my wife and my daughter. This is as a state employee, too. Our premiums amount to around 20% of our household income. Bernie's proposals would make a huge positive difference in our household income, even with a tax increase. Also, he supports the highest minimum wage, so I think he would claim that if attacked on his tax proposals. I think too few people understand how much they pay in premiums or realize that few people have super awesome insurance plans through their jobs anymore. I know both my mother and my in-laws just go "gee whiz" and change the subject when they find out how much I have to pay to insure my family. (Note: I am a supporter of both or either Clinton and/or Sanders and I voted today in the primaries)
posted by Slothrop at 8:47 AM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


If it wasn't enough to sink Obama in 2012, when his not-even-universal private health care system was being described as a fascist socialist takeover of the health insurance industry, I see no reason why it would sink Sanders.

One of the things I'm idly curious about, and which I don't believe will be answerable for another decade or so, is whether all the attempts to smear Obama as a socialist (and therefore earn the voters of older voters) has backfired by endearing socialism to younger voters and future voters, who might like Obama and work backwards from that to liking socialism (or at least more socialist policies). Sort of an accidental shift of the Overton window, maybe.
posted by cjelli at 8:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [27 favorites]


Rubio would actually be a perfect running mate for Hillary if he were a Democrat.

Don't give them ideas.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


That being said I think we can achieve universal coverage without necessarily going to a single-payer model.

I want my frickin' public option. I'm almost glad no one is talking about it in the campaign, though, because I think the more stealthily it is done, the more politically feasible it is.
posted by OnceUponATime at 8:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


But disgusted conservatives led by pundits such as Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson either join together to support the Constitution Party candidate or they form their own political party and nominate someone more palatable.

With an lineup of political talent like that, how could they lose?
posted by Gelatin at 8:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I have an acquaintance who feels this way. She prides herself on being extremely progressive and believes that, if Sanders doesn't win the nomination, a Trump election would bring about a leftist revolution.

I know I am way, waaaay late to the party on this comment, but this is precisely the kind of sloppy thinking that should be questioned. (Gently, so as not to scare them, but still.)

How does she expect this to work? What historical examples can she cite for "revolution" following on the heels of the election of a far-right figure? What organizations capable of military action currently exist, and how does she expect others to come into being? Again, how does this compare to other civil wars and insurgent campaigns? What is a strong example of this happening in a highly industrialized country? (ie, a country where you can't really just have the guerrillas hiding out in the mountains?)

Is she familiar with the longue duree, so to speak, of actually-existing left mass campaigns that were not primarily military? How long they took, how much they cost socially, what brought them into being? Again, what is a strong historical example of this happening in a developed country? Or even in a developing country?

Revolutions are like strikes, I suspect. Before you're in one, you think it sounds exciting and dramatic and heart-stirring, and when you're actually in the middle, you find out that it's awful and that resolving things in less dramatic ways is definitely preferable.

It's not that, if Trump is elected, I would have any problem with mass militant organization. Indeed, I expect I'll be involved in mass, militant organization (not the kind with actual guns; more the protest kind). But people really, really need not to have this silly, shallow, careless understanding of history and social change. If there were a Trump presidency and mass militant organizing sufficient to provoke anything even halfway close to "revolution", you would be looking at ten, fifteen, twenty years of social breakdown and chaos in its wake, even if one ended up with an Allende or a Zapatista movement rather than someone charismatic and corrupt. Maybe you could imagine a situation like Venezuela, where you had a charismatic strongman who was flawed but committed to social change. And that's the best case!

It's one thing to have a revolution if you're pushed to the wall; it's another to run over to the wall thinking it will be fun times and everyone home by Christmas.
posted by Frowner at 8:51 AM on March 15, 2016 [75 favorites]


I can't engage honestly and in good-faith with anyone who speaks of Bernie Sanders' tax increases without also speaking about the savings to families that offset them.

Sure, there's a new tax for Universal Healthcare, but that honestly can't be said without also saying, "and you never pay your HMO again, saving YOU money"
posted by mikelieman at 8:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


The thing is, there isn't the infrastructure for a "revolution", mostly peaceful or otherwise. There could be, given five or ten years and a little luck, which is where things are different than when I was younger. But it would be nice if those movements were able to mature in merely bad conditions rather than under fire.
posted by Frowner at 8:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


has backfired by endearing socialism to younger voters and future voters, who might like Obama and work backwards from that to liking socialism

Or just by conflating centre-left market-solution capitalism with actual socialism. You run campaigns against the former by 'smearing' it as the latter, you lose, and suddenly you can't run against the latter because oops they're the same now
posted by saturday_morning at 8:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


i support single payer, but what i have read on the polling is that the numbers supporting single payer change dramatically when the tax increases needed to pull it off are described

don't have a cite, sorry
posted by angrycat at 8:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Would people be happier if Bernie Sanders lived in Fantasyland, and made the pledge, "NO NEW TAXES!"?
posted by mikelieman at 8:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Is she familiar with the longue duree, so to speak, of actually-existing left mass campaigns that were not primarily military? How long they took, how much they cost socially, what brought them into being?

Or even the ones that WERE primarily military. How many weeks or months or even years of living in the jungle?
posted by chainsofreedom at 8:54 AM on March 15, 2016


In today's National Post, on the pages dedicated to coverage of Super Tuesday, there is a quarter-page ad with the large tagline: WHY DO YOU THINK THEY CALL IT SUPER?

It's an ad for Health Plus Super Colon Cleanse. And there is a $2.00 off coupon.
posted by Kabanos at 8:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


and yeah, one could argue that people would save money regardless of tax increases, but it's the stupid reaction against tax increases that defies reason
posted by angrycat at 8:54 AM on March 15, 2016


Would people be happier if Bernie Sanders lived in Fantasyland, and made the pledge, "NO NEW TAXES!"?

Truly, I wonder so much what people are thinking when they whine about taxes. When a candidate promises to lower taxes, what do they expect to happen? What, indeed, would happen if Donald Trump dismantled the IRS? Would it be a roving gang of privatized tax collectors like in the olden days? I want to know.
posted by witchen at 8:56 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


but it's the stupid reaction against tax increases that defies reason

It all make so much more sense to me now that I've given up the expectation and hope that people will act rationally. That is, sadly, the exception rather than the rule.

Is it Bourbon-o-clock yet?
posted by mikelieman at 8:57 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]



Rubio would actually be a perfect running mate for Hillary if he were a Democrat.

Don't give them ideas.


Right, because Hillary is so Republican. Planned Parenthood would totally support this as an organization that endorsed Hillary.
posted by zutalors! at 8:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Today I am feeling like I will vote for anyone who promises to abolish Daylight Saving Time.
posted by Fleebnork at 8:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [40 favorites]


Would it be a roving gang of privatized tax collectors like in the olden days?

Tax Farming?
posted by mikelieman at 8:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Sort of an accidental shift of the Overton window, maybe

On the other side of the aisle, maybe liberals have been calling the Republicans racist fascists for so long, their base has responded...
posted by Apocryphon at 9:00 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I just want to see Trump make Christie bark like a dog. That's the only thing left for Trump to do. Christie's political career is over now.
posted by My Dad at 9:02 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


Anita Alvarez became Chicago's first woman and first Latina state's attorney. After a tenure marred with cover-ups and controversy, many Chicagoans are no longer on her side.

I was going to mention that race. The anti-Alvarez consensus candidate is Kim Foxx.

The tipping/crystallizing point for Black Lives Matter here was the shooting of Laquan McDonald; he was unarmed and walking away from officers when he was shot sixteen times by Chicago's Finest. The dashcam video came out a year later and revealed that the CPD had been blatantly lying about the way things went down. Protesters shut down streets in the Loop (rallying cry: Sixteen Shots and a Cover-up) and called for the resignation of Mayor Emmanuel, the CPD Chief (Garry McCarthy, whose head soon rolled as the Mayor's fall-guy-designate) and State's Attorney Alvarez, who was condemned for slow-walking the prosecution of the officer responsible. So we'll see today if they can go two for three.

Other Illinois races to watch: Illinois House 5th, where Democratic representative Ken Duncan, who is accused of helping Republican governor Bruce Rauner in his Scott-Walker-ish crusade to smash the unions. Democrats have a technical supermajority but thanks in large part to Duncan's absence in key votes they have been unable to exercise overrides and such. As a result the state of Illinois has been without a budget since last summer, as the governor refuses to sign a budget that doesn't include the "turnaround agenda" (right-to-work) legislation he says is needed to get out of a structural deficit.

President Obama has actually endorsed Duncan's primary challenger, I believe, which is pretty bad news for Duncan. So this may not be a race that has national implications but it will probably be the one that has the greatest consequences on the state level.

Thinking about the presidential primary, I'll be watching to see how the Sanders/Clinton vote in the city matches up to the Chuy/Emmanuel mayoral election. If Sen. Sanders is to win Illinois, he'll need to do well in the Latino strongholds on the Northwest and Southwest sides of the city, be at least somewhat competitive in the majority-black neighborhoods on the West and Southwest sides, and make some inroads into Clinton's base of support in the wealthy central areas (the Loop and north through the Gold Coast, Lincoln Park and Lakeview). Wild card: the far northwest and far southwest sides, AKA the bungalow belt, which are white middle-class areas with a strong contingent of public employees (cops, firefighters, sanitation workers and such). They're fairly conservative but also staunch trade unionists, so who knows which way they'll lean.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:03 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Today I am feeling like I will vote for anyone who promises to abolish Daylight Saving Time.

"It's not morning in America, yet."
posted by cjelli at 9:03 AM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


In today's National Post, on the pages dedicated to coverage of Super Tuesday, there is a quarter-page ad with the large tagline: WHY DO YOU THINK THEY CALL IT SUPER?

It's an ad for Health Plus Super Colon Cleanse. And there is a $2.00 off coupon.


If this is the National Post I'm thinking of, I'd like to point out that it is a Canadian paper, and that we are grateful that the only colons that may require cleansing here today are our actual intestinal possessions, and not the metaphorical colon of civic society

And now back to watching my man-babe Prime Minister frolicking with pandas, you may join me if you wish
posted by saturday_morning at 9:03 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Would people be happier if Bernie Sanders lived in Fantasyland, and made the pledge, "NO NEW TAXES!"?

I remember back in the '92 cycle, Paul Tsongas debuted the line "I'm running to be President, not Santa Claus", and I thought, well, he's done for.
posted by thelonius at 9:04 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


With an lineup of political talent like that, how could they lose?

They don't have to lose. They just have to tank Trump.
posted by zarq at 9:04 AM on March 15, 2016


I just want to see Trump make Christie bark like a dog. That's the only thing left for Trump to do. Christie's political career is over now.

He'll bring Christie on stage in a gimp suit with a chain leash
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:05 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]




on NPR this morning there was this odd idea that Trump was so personally offended by Obama's mockery of him during the correspondent's dinner, it played a role in his decision to run.

which, can you imagine a Trump presidency after Obama? Holy fucking christ. This personal, 'Saddam tried to kill my daddy' umbrage was bad enough with Bush II. I would feel the need to apologize to the world every single day.
posted by angrycat at 9:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Siraj Datoo: Far Right In Europe Hope Donald Trump Will Set Them Free
Sunic, who said that he knows David Duke “very well” and respects “many things he has to say” said the term “white supremacist” is simply used to discredit opponents. Instead, he calls himself a “cultural pessimist.” He’s confident that a Trump presidency would lead to people currently scared of being labelled fascists for their views to speak more freely.

Sunic — and other far-right figures who spoke to BuzzFeed News — also volunteered that their support of Trump stemmed from his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has promoted an uber-conservative agenda at home and issued support for far-right parties across Europe, as well as for Trump.

Ménard, the French mayor, said it was “important” that America “stops demonising Russia.” Britain First’s Golding praised Trump’s attitude and said that working with Russia would help Britain to “obliterate ISIS”. The Belgian MEP Dewinter also suggested that a new US-Russia partnership could force European countries to alter their relationships with Putin.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:11 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


oh npr what garbage won't you repeat with a straight face
posted by entropicamericana at 9:11 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


witchen: When a candidate promises to lower taxes, what do they expect to happen?

a) That they'll be able to keep more of the money they earn, working for a living.
b) That programs they disagree with -- usually social service programs that don't affect them directly -- will lose funding.

mikelieman: Would people be happier if Bernie Sanders lived in Fantasyland, and made the pledge, "NO NEW TAXES!"?

Polling consistently says: 'It depends on what those taxes are being used for.' Is the money funding "free" healthcare, education, etc? (Which isn't actually free since it's tax-funded.) Then, yes, raise taxes. Money spent on social service programs the public dislikes, on paying public school teachers or on wars they don't agree with: No, don't raise 'em.
posted by zarq at 9:12 AM on March 15, 2016


They don't have to lose. They just have to tank Trump.

Well, maybe, but I wouldn't trust Kristol or Son of Erick to competently park my car, let alone craft a winning voter coalition.

Meanwhile, national treasure Charles Pierce notes that "the bounds of reality do not apply to the Frankenstein's Monster of the Republican Party."

That's been true since at least the 1980 election, in which the Republicans embraced what George H. W. Bush rightly called "voodoo economics," and have clung ever more tightly to their supply-side fantasy ever since, to the cost of states like Kansas, to say nothing of the nation.

One thing that makes me uneasy is that we can't count on the so-called "liberal media" to hold the candidates to objective reality. Remember 2000, when George W. Bush told whoppers during the debate, and the press made it all about how Al Gore sighed?
posted by Gelatin at 9:15 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Re: Christie, this is like watching season two of The Sopranos, except you could occasionally close your eyes and pretend Sal Bonpensiero would still have a future when it was all over
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:15 AM on March 15, 2016


And I worry that Sanders fans might feel bamboozled when their candidate stacks up some surprising "wins" and ends up losing by a substantial number of pledged delegates.

This is why I expect the Republicans will win the election.

Already we have the narrative going out that Clinton has "bought"the election, and nobody but Wall Street could possibly vote for her; I expect a lot of the people who have done nothing but do negative campaigning against Clinton for the past six months to scream that the election was "stolen", and vote for Trump in a "counter establishment/"anybody but "that woman""move.
posted by happyroach at 9:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Chicago voter here. I just got back from my polling place. They were asking everyone for ID. I told them they weren't supposed to ask for ID but they insisted they were told to. They let me vote without showing mine but kept asking those behind me for ID. I tried calling the Board of Elections but can't get through; just emailed but have no idea if anyone's reading emails today.

Also, my ballot didn't match the sample ballot I had pulled from the Chicago BOE website. At the time I assumed "well shit, everything is so redistricted and gerrymandered I'm sure the sample ballot lookup gets it wrong sometimes." It was US Representative and a Judicial subcircuit that were different. It wasn't til I got home that I realized they probably gave me the wrong ballot. I checked against the map on the wall and it looked right but now I'm second guessing myself. So now I just hope that my ballot doesn't get thrown out for being the wrong one. Usually I like voting but today wasn't great. In fact, I care about voting so much that this screwup is making me weepy.

I get that working at a polling place is a thankless, shitty job but I've never been confident at the level of competence on display when I go vote. It can be disheartening.

One good thing though is that I've never seen this polling place busy - usually there's only one or two other people there with me. Today I went in the middle of the day (so not typical pre- or post- work time) and there were several folks there already voting and a few more got in line behind me.
posted by misskaz at 9:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [38 favorites]


I think Obama might be just straight-up trolling Rubio today.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


A number of progressive organizations have banded together to publish the following open letter urging mass nonviolent mobilization against a Trump candidacy, to include protests, door to door campaigning, voter registration, etc.
posted by sallybrown at 9:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I'm a fan of NPR, but their political coverage gets weird.

On one hand, they went to significant lengths to clarify Cokie Roberts' role with NPR after a column she wrote with her husband a month ago took a very political stance: "GOP must stop Trump - now" (she provides commentary, and isn't an NPR journalist).

Yet they also interviewed Ralph Reed, founder of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, and let him blather on about the violence done in the name of Islam without countering his closing comment.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


These local, on the ground reports are great -- please keep them coming.
posted by msalt at 9:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


A number of progressive organizations have banded together to publish the following open letter urging mass nonviolent mobilization against a Trump candidacy, to include protests, door to door campaigning, voter registration, etc.

I'm there. I'm not going to sit by the sidelines and let actual pure distilled evil become president. To be fair, though, we need this kind of mobilization against the threat of a Cruz theocracy as well.
posted by dis_integration at 9:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Well people pretty consistently want more government help and less taxes and also a balanced budget. So, uh... shrug.

It does need to be pointed out OVER and OVER and OVER again until it hopefully sinks in that Sen. Sanders (and progressives generally) are the closest side we have to fiscal responsibility. Sec. Clinton wanted war in Syria, and she has no plan to pay for it. The Republicans all want war with Iran, plus absolutely massive tax cuts, and have promised to preserve or cut only slightly the major entitlement programs (Social Security and Medicare), they have no plan to pay-for these promises either.

But no politician ever gets called out on their bullshitting except for those nasty tax-and-spend liberals, for whom the whole media starts whipping out their pocket calculators (or just blatantly ignores other savings or offsets, such as the fact that higher taxes to pay for Medicare-For-All are more than offset by insurance premium and cost-sharing savings, administrative simplification and increased economies of scale).
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:23 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


oh npr what garbage won't you repeat with a straight face

NPR is desperate to show how "balanced" they are; one can always count on the network to report whatever Republicans think about any given issue. The sad thing is, modern movement conservatism relies on so many phony myths and fantasies -- chief among them that the mainstream media is at all liberal -- that when NPR reports facts inconvenient to the Republican narrative, they'll always just dismiss it as "liberal media."
posted by Gelatin at 9:23 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I just want to see Trump make Christie bark like a dog. That's the only thing left for Trump to do. Christie's political career is over now.

See, this is why I think the convention is likely to be brokered and weird shit's going to happen, and before it's all done they're going to have to make all those cops with their fancy new riot gear stop beating on Black Lives Matter protesters in the streets and come inside and start beating on delegates.

The Republicans have basically gone over the edge. Their brand is fucked, no matter what happens. The question is which flavor of fucked they want. Their choices appear to be:

a) take the nomination away from Trump through some form of convention chicanery. Infuriate the base, watch Trump go third party, and possibly actually beat their candidate in a three-way election that Hillary wins. Spend years trying to rebuild the Republican party against a Democratic party that now pretty much is what they used to be, and offers big capital all the same advantages without the risk of some - I think the term was subhuman morlock - flaring up every six weeks or so and causing splash damage to your brand on twitter.

b) All fall in line and throw their right hands up for Trump, hope for a decent position in the new Reich, and basically ride it out.

Option b didn't work out so well for Chris Christie, did it? Trump is too unpredictable. He's a lone wolf. I don't think he can work as part of a political machine. I don't even see how he's going to pick a VP. So he's just going to tear apart the party apparatus, and especially anybody who looks like they're rising into a position near his own. Nobody's going to survive it.

This, by the way, is why if I were a Republican senator, I'd be begging Obama to nominate someone for the Supreme Court by the end of the week. If they don't take Obama's nice, relatively uncontroversial nominee, their choices for who's going to send them the next nominee are Hillary or Donald Trump.
posted by Naberius at 9:25 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


"throw everything in a blender and hope something horrible doesn't come out,

Why am I suddenly reminded of the movie Gremlins?


If good policy is bad politics,

You can't seriously doubt that good policy is sometimes, perhaps even often, unpopular, particularly before it has been experienced.

then this entire world is fucked up beyond all hope of repair

This one the jury is still out on, but the polar bears have a strong opinion in the affirmative.
posted by bardophile at 9:26 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Sure, there's a new tax for Universal Healthcare, but that honestly can't be said without also saying, "and you never pay your HMO again, saving YOU money"

I'm for universal healthcare. I'm for single payer healthcare. But there's assumed privilege in your comment that I think is worth noting. Because you're wrong about that last part.

For a moment, let's assume that you're so poor you cannot afford health insurance. That because of this, you have never paid an HMO. You have never paid an insurance premium. Because you simply cannot afford to add another bill onto your monthly expenses. This the likely reality for most people who are uninsured. 48 million people in this country are uninsured, and a few of them are Mefites. They're not going to save money on Sanders' Universal Healthcare plan. They've never paid for an HMO before and aren't going to start.

There would be huge advantages to expanding medicare to cover everyone and I'm a firm believer that we need to do it.

But no, not everyone will be "saving money" if we do.
posted by zarq at 9:30 AM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Sec. Clinton wanted war in Syria, and she has no plan to pay for it.

FFS, she was Secretary of State while the Syria conflict raged and resisted strong pressure for US intervention. Can we tone down the highly partisan, slanted rhetoric?
posted by msalt at 9:30 AM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


oh npr what garbage won't you repeat with a straight face

Defund NPR... And give the money to PBS NewsHour!
posted by Apocryphon at 9:30 AM on March 15, 2016


I just want to see Trump make Christie bark like a dog. That's the only thing left for Trump to do. Christie's political career is over now.

He'll bring Christie on stage in a gimp suit with a chain leash


Y'all might enjoy this.
posted by DynamiteToast at 9:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


But no, not everyone will be "saving money" if we do.

You just described pretty much my entire family ever, and I'm pretty sure they all would have saved thousands and thousands of dollars in unexpected medical bills. And two bankruptcies.
posted by mayonnaises at 9:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


They were asking everyone for ID. I told them they weren't supposed to ask for ID but they insisted they were told to. They let me vote without showing mine but kept asking those behind me for ID.

UGH!!!!111! I'm sorry that happened. Boo hiss.

My polling place was busy but there wasn't a line (voted about 8:45am). I didn't show ID and wasn't asked, so hopefully that's the norm today! The only slight snafu was that when the poll worker pulled my name up on the touch screen, he accidentally tapped my spouse's name (we have the same last name and share initials) -- if I hadn't been paying attention, he would have been marked as "already voted" on going in to vote. (Which would have been interesting to watch, actually -- he's not someone who puts up with shenanigans at all. :) )
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:34 AM on March 15, 2016


Re: Cleveland during the convention...

I was in Cleveland this past August for a conference (at the same convention center where the GOP will be this summer) and the police presence a full year in advance was already highly visible. I saw way more officers than I normally see in Cincinnati's business district. Can any locals weigh in on whether my perception is correct?
posted by mostly vowels at 9:39 AM on March 15, 2016


Today I am feeling like I will vote for anyone who promises to abolish Daylight Saving Time.

If you say so...
posted by Strange Interlude at 9:40 AM on March 15, 2016


BRB, moving to Russia.
posted by Fleebnork at 9:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I am not sure, but I go to a conference every summer at the Duke Energy Center in Cincinnati and I see almost no police there, so. We are opposites?
posted by chainsofreedom at 9:41 AM on March 15, 2016




> If good policy is bad politics,

...then it's Tuesday?
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Cleveland is stealing all of Cincinnati's police, obviously.

(And they can keep them...)
posted by Strange Interlude at 9:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oops, looks like the convention is taking place at Quicken Loans arena
posted by mostly vowels at 9:43 AM on March 15, 2016


You just described pretty much my entire family ever, and I'm pretty sure they all would have saved thousands and thousands of dollars in unexpected medical bills. And two bankruptcies.

The specific comment I was replying to said that everyone would save money because they weren't paying an HMO. Which is wrong.

I didn't have health insurance for 11 years in my teens and 20's. I didn't go to doctors for years, because it simply it wasn't possible. Believe me, i know the value of being insured. But if we're going to talk about that, then let's do so. Because the realities of poverty and being uninsured are a hell of a lot deeper than "you won't have to pay your hmo."
posted by zarq at 9:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Defund NPR

I disagree; part of the problem as I see it is that NPR has been defunded of so much public money, and so it has had to turn to corporate donors.

If good policy is bad politics

Republicans have known for years they can't be fully honest about their agenda -- see Lee Atwater's famous confession about racial dogwhistles, among other things -- and as a result they've crafted an impressive messaging and marketing machine. I believe Democrats are at a disadvantage in that they know they have better policies; they sincerely believe, and so rely on that sincerity to convince the electorate. Meanwhile, the Republicans counter with simple slogans that have been focus-grouped to hellandgone by the likes of Frank Luntz, to the point that voters consistently tell pollsters they dislike "Obamacare" while approving of its individual components.

Democrats have to stop pretending Republicans are operating in anything like good faith -- Bush v Gore alone should have convinced them -- and stop apologizing for their own good policies, but rather work harder on selling them.
posted by Gelatin at 9:45 AM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Actually, the joke I was making is that NewsHour seems to be overlooked, as far as public news programs go.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:47 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Frowner basically covered what I wanted to say about the idiocy of voting Trump "to cause a revolution." Revolutions like that result in lots of dead people. If you have no choice they might be the only way to go, but to wish for it is to reveal yourself as either clueless or heartless.
posted by emjaybee at 9:47 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Democrats have to

SHOW UP FOR FUCKING MIDTERMS
posted by prize bull octorok at 9:47 AM on March 15, 2016 [86 favorites]


For a moment, let's assume that you're so poor you cannot afford health insurance. That because of this, you have never paid an HMO. You have never paid an insurance premium.

This is a valid point. I assume there would be some sort of an offset for low-income folks, possibly an expansion of the earned income tax credit. But, of course, our unicorn glitter progressive Congress will probably have already increased the federal minimum wage to $15/hr, so I think it's fair to say that the working poor are probably going to have more money in their pockets even after higher income tax rates are levied.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Omfg, the riot gear article linked above is terrifying:

A group of Trump supporters calling itself “The Lion’s Guard” aims to serve as a militia-style security force for attendees at Trump rallies
posted by mostly vowels at 9:51 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Special alert to Trump supporters:
It was just announced. The Republican primaries got moved to Thursday. Ya, um ...authorities decided it was a safety issue to hold R and D primaries on the same day. So you can wait until Thursday.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Today I am feeling like I will vote for anyone who promises to abolish Daylight Saving Time.

I can just imagine Trump promising this in a speech.

TRUMP: "Folks I hate daylight savings, it's like time is a weak loser that can't make a decision. You know who doesn't do daylight savings? China. The Chinese are beating us on trade and they are beating us on time! We are behind by at least 12 hours, and we're behind even MORE when we're off daylight savings!!The first thing I'll do is end daylight savings and set our East coast clocks 14 hours ahead, and we will start winning again! It won't be Morning in America, it will be TOMORROW in America!"
posted by FJT at 9:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


I just got back from my Cincinnati polling place. It was even quieter than usual.
posted by mmascolino at 9:54 AM on March 15, 2016


It was just announced. The Republican primaries got moved to Thursday. Ya, um ...authorities decided it was a safety issue to hold R and D primaries on the same day. So you can wait until Thursday.

Telling them their primary moved isn't going to help. You do want people to vote in their own primary.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:55 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Telling them their primary moved isn't going to help.

On top of that, Republicans need to resort to vote-suppression tactics because when people turn out, Democrats win. Let's leave those shenanigans to them (and fight like hell against them too).
posted by Gelatin at 9:57 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


Ohio voter here. I live in a college town in a very conservative district. There was a voting line (mostly students) out the door, more people voting than I have ever seen here. I saw a number of Bernie t-shirts, but the student body tends to be fairly conservative as well. Anecdotally, I haven't seen a single sign for Trump around. I voted for Bernie.
posted by Bistle at 10:00 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


This is a valid point. I assume there would be some sort of an offset for low-income folks, possibly an expansion of the earned income tax credit. But, of course, our unicorn glitter progressive Congress will probably have already increased the federal minimum wage to $15/hr, so I think it's fair to say that the working poor are probably going to have more money in their pockets even after higher income tax rates are levied.

The Sanders plan expands Medicare to cover everyone. So coverage and premiums would likely be similar to Medicare A and B.

Currently, if you qualify, (as a senior) Medicare A is free. Part A is essentially hospital insurance. It covers most medically-necessary care in a hospital or nursing facility. It also covers home health aides and hospice care. Part B covers everything else.

Part B is medical insurance and it requires a monthly premium. It covers most medically-necessary doctors' services, including preventive care. It also includes hospital outpatient services (emphasized here because they're not covered by Part A!,) ambulance services, lab tests and scans like x-rays. In addition, it covers some of the home health care costs that are not covered by Part A, including certain kinds of durable medical equipment.

So what happens if someone gets sick and goes to the ER to get antibiotics as an outpatient? Not covered by Part B.

I haven't read all of the Sanders plan. But I'm guessing that's addressed. Because that's how many uninsured people probably get medical care -- a visit to the ER.
posted by zarq at 10:02 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'll be shocked if this election doesn't come down to two white men.

Unfortunately the more I learn about the details of Sander's actual proposals -- like how the best case scenario for "free college" proposal actually realistically means "free public universities in maybe 3 states." and how his proposal for "single payer healthcare" depends on somehow getting tax increases through congress -- the sadder it makes me.

The craziest thing is that while Sanders voted for Obamacare, he criticizes it but then builds a college plan that is weaker but has the exact same flaw --it relies on buy-ins from individual states, the vast majority of which have republican legislatures that will never go for it. Of course, he can't do it any other way, because public universities are not controlled at the federal level the way the way they are in countries with free or cheap college.

Meanwhile, on the far left and the right people are talking about indicting Hillary for the exact same things Rice and Powell did that nobody has ever mentioned.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 10:06 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Why can't we indict Rice and Powell too?
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:10 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


the police presence a full year in advance was already highly visible. I saw way more officers than I normally see in Cincinnati's business district. Can any locals weigh in on whether my perception is correct?

Probably not so much, TBH. I don't get to downtown Cleveland all that often, but starting from the rebuilding of Terminal Tower as a shopping/dining center in the late 80's there's been a more-or-less-continual process of improving/gentrifying downtown and the immediate surroundings, so the cops have maintained a fairly strong presence there for years.
posted by soundguy99 at 10:10 AM on March 15, 2016


Meanwhile, on the far left and the right people are talking about indicting Hillary

The indictment's out of our hands. It'll happen or it won't.
posted by Trochanter at 10:10 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh, I should add... Part B is $121.80 per month if your individual income is less than $85K annually.

I believe it's possible to qualify for free Part B, but I don't know how low your income has to be. (I think it's around $1200 per month or lower, but am not sure.)
posted by zarq at 10:11 AM on March 15, 2016


My favorite part about voting in Ohio is the sticker they give you. It says "I [Picture of the State of Ohio] Voting." I Ohio voting, why doesn't everybody Ohio voting?
posted by Bistle at 10:12 AM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


Meanwhile, on the far left and the right people are talking about indicting Hillary for the exact same things Rice and Powell did that nobody has ever mentioned.

If by "nobody", you mean "actually realistically pretty much everyone", then sure.
posted by Etrigan at 10:13 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Why can't we indict Rice and Powell too?

Here's hoping the GOP establishment nominates Rice, then.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:14 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


well, Ohio is shaped like a jagged, pointy heart...
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:15 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I wish Condi would come to her senses, cross the aisle and run as Bernie's VP. She's too good for them. And Colin for Sec State. Come on guys.
posted by Trochanter at 10:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Why can't we indict Rice and Powell too?

Because it's not at all clear that Rice, Powell or Clinton have done anything wrong or illegal.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 10:18 AM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


Two questions that occur to me, as a Canadian who is following the election pretty closely:

1. As intimated upthread, I'm really surprised by the Republicans delaying the supreme court nominee on a pure gamesmanship level. The betting markets are all showing the Democrats as pretty heavy favourites to take the general election. Wouldn't the Republicans have a much better chance of getting a justice they can live with through right now than they would in the first year of a Clinton or Sanders presidency? Not to mention the fact that Trump's likely nominees would probably be left of centre on social issues too?

2. Isn't the Clinton indictment thing kind of a red herring? It doesn't look like there is any chance of an indictment coming through before the general election. And if Hillary becomes president, then she can't be indicted without first being impeached, right? So she only faces indictment if she doesn't win, which renders the whole thing moot?
posted by 256 at 10:20 AM on March 15, 2016


I wish Condi would come to her senses, cross the aisle and run as Bernie's VP. She's too good for them. And Colin for Sec State.

No. No no no no no.
posted by aabbbiee at 10:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


> "well, Ohio is shaped like a jagged, pointy heart..."

*stares at Ohio map*

... I ... guess so? In the same sort of way that a car is shaped like a rectangular, if you ignore all the bits where it isn't?
posted by kyrademon at 10:21 AM on March 15, 2016


if she were married (to a man), i thought condi had a great chance of being the first female and first black president. but alas, she doesn't have a spouse and that is seen as suspicious by large groups of people.
posted by nadawi at 10:22 AM on March 15, 2016


(i'm not advocating a condi presidency, i just thought if she had done the expected marriage/kids thing, she would have had a good shot at the office)
posted by nadawi at 10:23 AM on March 15, 2016


We already have an African American female national security advisor surnamed Rice. And the foreign policy controversies Susan's embroiled in are far less problematic than Condi's.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:24 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


2017: Trump is so bad as president that massive amounts of Americans try fleeing to Mexico but there's this HUGE FREAKING WALL.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:24 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


well, Ohio is shaped like a jagged, pointy heart...

In kinda the same way that the heart shape is shaped like an actual heart, sure.
posted by Etrigan at 10:25 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I believe it's possible to qualify for free Part B, but I don't know how low your income has to be. (I think it's around $1200 per month or lower, but am not sure.)

Um, yes. You can be dually-enrolled into both Medicare and Medicaid if your income is below 100% of the federal poverty line, about $1000 for an individual and $1200 for a household of two (it is tied to inflation and I don't remember the new 2016 numbers off the top of my head). In this case, Medicaid covers most of the costs that Medicare doesn't pay for, including part B premiums. You might end up with some very small (like $2.00 or $3.90 small, in IL at least) copays for medications and doctor visits.

Of course, many people go with a Part C (Medicare Advantage) plan, which is basically a private plan that replaces parts A/B/D for a somewhat higher premium, usually in the range of $130/mo I think. That option might or might not remain in an expanded Medicare program.

Regardless, it's a bit of a clunky system* and I assume everything would get bundled together under a single payer system -- the issue right now is that there is one federal program that handles seniors & people with permanent disability (Medicare) and another state/federal partnership program that handles low-income people (Medicaid).

I also am not sure how premiums would change under a single-payer system. Right now Medicare is funded through a payroll tax on all workers plus premiums for Parts B and D for most people, and some people do have to pay for Part A if they don't have enough work quarters to qualify for premium-free Part A. But Medicare as it stands right now also is covering the oldest and sickest part of the population; if it were expanded to cover everyone then premiums could go down. Depending of course on how much of an increase you have in payroll taxes to cover the increased costs.

*understatement of the year
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:25 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


psst.

I Heart Ohio Voting

(I woulda linked to a pic of my own sticker but forgotten passwords etc etc.)
posted by soundguy99 at 10:26 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm really surprised by the Republicans delaying the supreme court nominee on a pure gamesmanship level. The betting markets are all showing the Democrats as pretty heavy favourites to take the general election. Wouldn't the Republicans have a much better chance of getting a justice they can live with through right now than they would in the first year of a Clinton or Sanders presidency?

It's a matter of timing. Wait 'till Trump gets the nod. They'll confirm a ham sandwich.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


alla yall ohio-is-heart-shaped deniers can hate, but clearly the ohio secretary of state agrees with me
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I Bloody Steak Voting?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


> Ben Carson: Even if Trump's a bad president, it'll only be 4 years

I wouldn't be so sure. The way Trump behaves, I'll be surprised if he doesn't commit one or more blatantly impeachable offenses once he's in office, and if the establishment Republicans really hate him as much as I keep reading that they do and they genuinely fear that he's destroying the party, they might just cooperate with the Democrats if the later try to impeach him.
posted by homunculus at 10:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


It looks more like a severed chicken head plummeting to the ground beak-first than a heart, really.
posted by kyrademon at 10:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


a potent metaphor for this election
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:29 AM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


I'll be surprised if he doesn't commit one or more blatantly impeachable offenses once he's in office, and if the establishment Republicans really hate him as much as I keep reading that they do and they genuinely fear that he's destroying the party, they might just cooperate with the Democrats if the later try to impeach him.

Yeah, one reason why I don't think Trump himself is the most dangerous threat ever is because I'm pretty sure that both parties can work together to impeach him if he does something truly flagrant. He might have a few turncoat opportunists endorsing him, but he'd have to do a lot more to win over a majority of Republican legislators, much less Democrats.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:32 AM on March 15, 2016


It looks more like a severed chicken head plummeting to the ground beak-first than a heart, really.

Dear kyrademon, please accept this Official Key To The State Of Michigan, for services rendered.
posted by Etrigan at 10:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [22 favorites]


I wish Condi would come to her senses, cross the aisle and run as Bernie's VP. She's too good for them. And Colin for Sec State.

No. No no no no no.


Yeah, absolutely not.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 10:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I also didn't get asked for ID here in Chicago. The only problem at my polling place was a crotchety old man giving the poll workers a hard time because of the way the ballot scanner machines work (they briefly spit your ballot back out if you undervote, and he thought people would see who he voted for). Which, I guess his complaint was sorta valid, but he was being extremely rude to all the (non-white) poll workers in a really awful way. I guess I also failed to grab one of the little "thank you for voting" slips of paper because I couldn't get away from that terrible old man fast enough, but those are a lousy substitute for a sticker anyway.
posted by gueneverey at 10:36 AM on March 15, 2016


I wish Condi would come to her senses, cross the aisle and run as Bernie's VP.

Setting aside for only a moment Rice's spectacular incompetence as National Security Advisor -- 9/11 happened on her watch, let's not forget -- she was as dishonest as the day is long when it came to selling W's Excellent Iraqi Adventure. Clinton deserves to be chided for her calculated support for that disaster, but Rice was one of its architects and chief advocates. Not to mention her unflagging support for the entire miserable failure that was Bush and his presidency. As a Republican, Rice would undoubtedly support whatever hare-brained tax cuts and deregulatory measures came out of the Republican House. No, thank you.
posted by Gelatin at 10:36 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


One more thing regarding medicare and health care....

I think it's important to talk about the details of healthcare coverage. Because it's fine to have "coverage for everyone" as a talking point, but what does that coverage actually cover?

It's vitally important (imo) for us not to view poverty through the lens of what the middle, working or wealthy classes think might help, but rather what will in fact help people. How do poor people use hospitals? What do they do when they get sick but can't see a doctor? Universal healthcare can't just be applied. It has to alleviate problems. It has to not only create preventative care systems to help people get sick less frequently, but give them access to the care and medications they need to get well. Because someone who gets sicker and sicker and can't see a doctor but also has to work to survive probably will wind up getting other people sick in the process.

That's one of the reasons I brought up medicare. The question of whether Sanders' plan adds hospital outpatient services to its basic medicare expansion for the poor is deeply important. Because the fact that it's not part of Part A right now is a travesty.

When I was uninsured and poor, I went to the ER as an outpatient if i got sick, and then pled poverty and didn't pay my bill. If that happened, I would probably miss a day of work. As a kid, that's likely not such a big deal. (I mean, it was for a couple of years at 19 and 20 because i was pitching in to help support my mother at the time.) But if Medicare did cover those visits for everyone, that would mean a great deal to anyone who ever showed up at the ER needing an antibiotic. Hell, it would mean that people would go get diagnosed and hopefully receive the care they need, rather than assume they'd get better in a few days.

Right now, if you're on Medicare Part A but not Part B, the equation changes from "I can't afford to get sick as an outpatient, ever -- only hospitalized" to: "What happens if i need to go to the ER and get a chest x-ray as an outpatient? If they check me in, I'm covered. But if not, I'm screwed." And in an ER, it's a catch-22 and out of your hands. They won't admit you ​unless​ the chest x-ray shows you need to be admitted. So... you have it in the ER. Is it covered by Medicare Part A? Maybe not. Definitely not if you're not admitted. If you are admitted, it was done in the ER when you hadn't been admitted yet. The whole system is screwed up. Something so simple that it needs to be addressed -- but if you haven't been through it or don't know the system, would you even know what questions to ask when formulating legislation to make sure people aren't falling through a coverage gap?

And again, ANY coverage is MUCH MUCH better than NO coverage. At least Sanders HAS a plan to cover more people. Clinton isn't even entertaining the idea!

But the devil is most certainly in the details, and if coverage isn't adequate then that matters. A LOT.
posted by zarq at 10:37 AM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


The many mysteries surrounding Bernie Sanders’s single-payer health care plan
Sanders has staked his campaign for president on a platform of converting the U.S. health care system into a $14 trillion single-payer program run by the government. His opponent for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton, has criticized the cost and the political feasibility of his plan, but Sanders makes it sound simple: If Europe can do it, so can we.

Experts say it’s not so simple, in part because no large free-market country, not in Europe or even Canada, has ever tried what Sanders is proposing — to socialize an industry that accounts for nearly one-fifth of the national economy.

“It is not just a problem of the politics,” said Sherry Glied, dean of the Wagner School of Public Service at New York University. “The devil truly is in the details in designing single payer – you have to define what you are going to give up, the trade offs, and once you do that [single payer] isn’t a simple elegant thing anymore.”
[...]
“There is only one way that I know of that you can provide universal, cost effective and comprehensive health care for all of our people,” Sanders said in 2009 while ACA was being debated in the Senate. “That is a Medicare for all single-payer system.”

Sanders has not yet offered key details about what such a system would look like if he were to enact it, such as how much it would pay doctors and what treatments would be covered. Those details could all significantly change how people use health insurance and how much it would cost the government.

The lack of detail makes it very difficult to estimate how his plan would change the economy. So does the lack of any comparable historical precedent for what he is proposing.
posted by OmieWise at 10:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


[Several comments deleted. To keep these threads being something we can do here, folks need to not make it personal, not say "you people" are terrible, etc, and seriously, do not bring suicide/homicide talk in here.]
posted by LobsterMitten at 10:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Meanwhile, Congress is hard at work "Recognizing magic as a rare and valuable art form and national treasure."
posted by melissasaurus at 10:42 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Frowner basically covered what I wanted to say about the idiocy of voting Trump "to cause a revolution." Revolutions like that result in lots of dead people. If you have no choice they might be the only way to go, but to wish for it is to reveal yourself as either clueless or heartless.

(Warning: anecdata ahead!) Speaking as a white male, nearly every single person I've heard espousing the wish that Trump become President in order to usher in a leftist revolution... has also been a white male. Realistically speaking, we'd be the least likely people to be killed in an anti-Trump revolution. So hey, fellow white dudes out there: let's maybe think about which "we the people" that glorious revolution would be helping!
posted by duffell at 10:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


It's difficult to have conversations if someone says "the politics of this are bad," and the response is that the politics are not a description of the thing-as-it-is. Saying that it's a tough sell to folks that their taxes will go up is in no way equivalent to saying that they won't receive savings elsewhere or that it's a bad idea. When we are talking about a general election, we are always talking about messaging as well. American voters are not particularly known for paying attention to the asterix.
posted by OmieWise at 10:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Meanwhile, Congress is hard at work "Recognizing magic as a rare and valuable art form and national treasure."

Why not? Magical thinking is essential to modern movement conservatism.
posted by Gelatin at 10:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


if she were married (to a man), i thought condi had a great chance of being the first female and first black president. but alas, she doesn't have a spouse and that is seen as suspicious by large groups of people.

If you're a strong female these people figure you dine at the Y regardless. See all the seekret lesbean stuff that's always going on about HRC.
posted by phearlez at 10:45 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yes, Collin "Iraq TOTALLY has yellowcake uranium and WMDs, you guys!" Powell is not a guy I want anywhere near the Presidency. He sold his (considerable, even among liberals at the time) credibility down the river when he got up in front of the UN and helped put his stamp on Bush's war plans.
posted by emjaybee at 10:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


MetaFilter: a severed chicken head plummeting to the ground beak-first
posted by Foosnark at 10:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


The lack of detail makes it very difficult to estimate how his plan would change the economy. So does the lack of any comparable historical precedent for what he is proposing.

Here's what it says on his site
"Bernie’s plan would create a federally administered single-payer health care program. Universal single-payer health care means comprehensive coverage for all Americans. Bernie’s plan will cover the entire continuum of health care, from inpatient to outpatient care; preventive to emergency care; primary care to specialty care, including long-term and palliative care; vision, hearing and oral health care; mental health and substance abuse services; as well as prescription medications, medical equipment, supplies, diagnostics and treatments. Patients will be able to choose a health care provider without worrying about whether that provider is in-network and will be able to get the care they need without having to read any fine print or trying to figure out how they can afford the out-of-pocket costs.
...
As a patient, all you need to do is go to the doctor and show your insurance card. Bernie’s plan means no more copays, no more deductibles and no more fighting with insurance companies when they fail to pay for charges.
There are some details on that page. But yeah, right now it's a summary description, not a full-fledged plan. But it's good to see that it would combine benefits for wider coverage.
posted by zarq at 10:47 AM on March 15, 2016


This has all been reported on at length for the last few months, and at least in response to her Iraq vote and the AIDS disaster, she has also responded at length. There's nothing wrong with acknowledging and reporting what has happened and holding her accountable. But at some point Americans are going to have to vote for one candidate or the other, and if she becomes the candidate we owe it to ourselves to not shoot ourselves in the face over who sits behind the Resolute desk for the next 4 years.

We’ll have to agree to disagree, then. I don’t think voting for a profit-driven invasion falls into the “ugh so sorry I missed your birthday that one time, now that it’s out in the open let’s move on” category. If the Democrats don’t want to be reminded of their candidates’ death tolls, they would do well to select candidates that don’t have one. There are over 318.8 million Americans who have never placed a Senate vote to kill people in another country for resources.
posted by threeants at 10:51 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


And how many of these 318.8 million are actually running for President in 2016?
posted by soundguy99 at 10:53 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


if she were married (to a man), i thought condi had a great chance of being the first female and first black president. but alas, she doesn't have a spouse and that is seen as suspicious by large groups of people.

I can't think of Condi without thinking of the description of her from that really long, allegedly nonfictional SomethingAwful article about the Bush administration. Apparently, everybody liked her, she didn't seem to do much beyond work and exercise (at home) to Led Zeppelin, and she also had mysteriously wonderul-smelling hand cream.
posted by Sticherbeast at 10:54 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


If you're a strong female these people figure you dine at the Y regardless. See all the seekret lesbean stuff that's always going on about HRC.

sure, of course, people say all sorts of weird stupid things based on their own bigotry, but i still think if she had the sort of family that republicans like they would have voted for her, especially if she were running against a dem who was a woman and/or black. i honestly always thought our first non-white and/or non-male president would be a republican, actually, and was pleasantly surprised it didn't work out that way.

(although, i will say, as someone who has been hearing seekrit sex scandal rumors about hillary since i was a small child, those closer to home always seemed to argue that she had a cavalcade of cocaine providing young men that kept her company while bill was driving around in his limo with young women - not that this has any basis in fact, but i heard it long before they hit the national stage and it has persisted)
posted by nadawi at 10:55 AM on March 15, 2016


The lack of detail makes it very difficult to estimate how his plan would change the economy. So does the lack of any comparable historical precedent for what he is proposing.

That article raises some valid questions, but is very scaremongery and at several points is close to outright lies. For instance, the ACA has actually cost a lot less than estimated, so while it's technically accurate to say that "estimates of the cost of health care spending also have a history of being completely wrong. Early studies of the cost of Medicare were off by billions of dollars and the Obama administration continues to grapple with shifting ACA budget expectations" is, at best technically correct but highly misleading.

It's also self-contradictory: "no large free-market country, not in Europe or even Canada, has ever tried what Sanders is proposing — to socialize an industry that accounts for nearly one-fifth of the national economy." vs., buried lower in the article: "Canada is the best and most recent example of a country attempting a health care plan similar to the one Sanders’s proposes, Glied said. The Canadian system evolved over decades from a universal plan that started in a single province in the 1940s."

I think this is a derail and this thread is going to be big enough without continuing, but maybe I will do an FPP about health insurance designs sometime.
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:55 AM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Apparently, everybody liked her, she didn't seem to do much beyond work and exercise (at home) to Led Zeppelin, and she also had mysteriously wonderul-smelling hand cream.

And that hand cream was made from... petroleum!
posted by Apocryphon at 10:58 AM on March 15, 2016


I think this is a derail and this thread is going to be big enough without continuing, but maybe I will do an FPP about health insurance designs sometime.

Yeah, sorry for my part in the derail. I know it's nominally on topic, but I still don't want to veer the conversation too far off course. Obviously this is a topic i feel strongly about. :)
posted by zarq at 10:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


“It is not just a problem of the politics,” said Sherry Glied, dean of the Wagner School of Public Service at New York University. “The devil truly is in the details in designing single payer – you have to define what you are going to give up, the trade offs, and once you do that [single payer] isn’t a simple elegant thing anymore.”

I choose to give up Health Insurance Companies, and as a trade-off, we use the money saved on overhead for patient care.
posted by mikelieman at 10:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Just voted in Illinois.

We have an open primary, and you can select any ballot you like. The woman behind me said, "But I'm a registered democrat, so..." The poll worker persisted in convincing her that she really could take any ballot she liked. At this, the woman said, "Well, then I'll be voting against someone instead of for someone... Let's go with the republican ballot."

Strangely, though, the poll workers do have to call out your ballot choice loudly and publicly; supposedly it's state law(?). It appears to serve no functional purpose, because the people they're calling to shouldn't be expected to keep track of which voter is getting which ballot that way, and the paper slip with printed sticker that you bring over to them serves the purpose much more reliably anyway. I know of one person for whom that actually dissuaded them from picking a ballot of the "opposite" party, which seems to be the only purpose it could serve.

The guy by the ballot scanning machine said they hadn't been given any "voted" stickers. :-(
posted by whatnotever at 10:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


As far as I am concerned, Condi belongs in prison along with the rest of C-plus Augustus's war cabinet.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 10:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


That's not really a trade-off, but since there's no downside to getting ride of the heath insurance companies, you don't have any trade-offs...
posted by mikelieman at 11:00 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I am very entertained by the notion that the GOP is so bankrupt of viable candidates is that they're reduced to mining the past for failed figures. But also the prospect of Clinton v. Rice always reminds me of this wondrous treatise.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:00 AM on March 15, 2016


I surprised every here speculating about VP choices is missing the most obvious choice for Sanders: Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN).

He's black, so that should help bolster Bernie's relative weakness there. He's from the Midwest, so that should help balance out the Brooklyn accent and the Vermont-ness. Most importantly though, after 8 years of reactionary yowling about a socialist Muslim in the White House, we would actually have a socialist and a Muslim in the White House.

The choice is obvious, Sander/Ellison 2016: Turn the Bern Up to 11.
posted by Panjandrum at 11:01 AM on March 15, 2016 [64 favorites]


Strangely, though, the poll workers do have to call out your ballot choice loudly and publicly; supposedly it's state law

I also voted in Illinois, they didn't do that for me. Just handed me my ballot. Perhaps it is a local law that doesn't impact all precincts?
posted by Green With You at 11:03 AM on March 15, 2016


A Jewish/Muslim ticket. Holy moly. How's that for neutrality on Israel-Palestine?
posted by Apocryphon at 11:03 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


the poll workers do have to call out your ballot choice loudly and publicly; supposedly it's state law

Really?!? That's never happened to me and I've voted in every primary and general election since moving to Illinois in '09.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:04 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




I do not understand the super narrow focus on the details of his health care plan when Clinton barely has one at all ("let the states add a public option" and defend ACA is the most I've seen from her). How can Sanders' plan simultaneously be so unlikely that many of the same people critiquing it say "it will never happen, you silly starry-eyed idealists" but also see it worthy of fisking up and down for every detail? It is kind of a weird. double-standard. Of course the plan would change as it was debated, voted on, and implemented - everybody knows that. Of course a lot of details would need to be hammered out. I just don't see how anyone could look at Sanders' record and assume he would be OK with loopholes that leave out poor people, even if we can find loopholes in his policy statements (which, again, are vastly more detailed than anything Clinton has put forth).

More links on Sanders and policy:
Columbia economist Jeffrey Sachs: "Sanders is right to reject that philosophy and to attack the stagnation of Democratic Party mainstream economic policy."
New UMass economics study demonstrates that a tax on Wall Street speculation could easily pay for Sanders' college tuition proposal
Tech policy activists find Bernie Sanders is best bet
Bernie Sanders Scored Victories for Years via Legislative Side Doors, NYT
When it was wildly unpopular politically, Sanders backed a pride parade. In the LGBT community, word got out: Burlington was a place trans Americans could be safe
posted by dialetheia at 11:07 AM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]




Meanwhile, Congress is hard at work "Recognizing magic as a rare and valuable art form and national treasure."

Wow, somebody in Congress is apparently really, really into David Copperfield:
Whereas David Copperfield, introduced to magic as a boy growing up in New Jersey, has been named a Living Legend by the Library of Congress;

Whereas David Copperfield, with 21 Emmy Awards, 11 Guinness World Records, and over four billion dollars in ticket sales, has impacted every aspect of the global entertainment industry;

Whereas David Copperfield, through his magic, inspires great positive change in the lives of Americans;

Whereas people consistently leave David Copperfield’s live magic show with a different perspective than when they entered;

Whereas Rebecca Brown of Portland, Oregon, left a David Copperfield magic show with a newfound inspiration to pursue her lifelong, unfulfilled passion for dance;

Whereas three months after Rebecca Brown attended the David Copperfield magic show, she performed her first choreographed recital in Portland, Oregon’s Pioneer Square;

Whereas programs such as Project Magic, created by David Copperfield, use magic as a form of therapy for children with physical, psychological, and social disabilities;
posted by parallellines at 11:07 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Strangely, though, the poll workers do have to call out your ballot choice loudly and publicly; supposedly it's state law(?).

I also voted this morning in Chicago, and there was no such requirement. (On preview: what Green With You said.) The only choices available for me if I chose a Republican ballot would have been for President and US Senate, so even if I did want to vote strategically, taking the Republican ballot would have been foolish, especially since we really need to kick out Anita Alvarez.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 11:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Well, this election is a final countdown.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


A Jewish/Muslim ticket. Holy moly. How's that for neutrality on Israel-Palestine?

And for Secretary of State, obviously, Justin Amash, chairman of the House Freedom Caucus and a second-generation Palestinian Christian immigrant. *mind boggles*
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:09 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Finally, the coalition government that will bring peace to the Middle East.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:10 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It is kind of a weird. double-standard.

someone who wants to upend the status quo has to have more details than someone who wants to continue it. that doesn't seem odd to me.
posted by nadawi at 11:11 AM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


We’ll have to agree to disagree, then. I don’t think voting for a profit-driven invasion falls into the “ugh so sorry I missed your birthday that one time, now that it’s out in the open let’s move on” category. If the Democrats don’t want to be reminded of their candidates’ death tolls, they would do well to select candidates that don’t have one. There are over 318.8 million Americans who have never placed a Senate vote to kill people in another country for resources.

They're not running for President. Clinton is, and Sanders is, and the Republican circus are. If Clinton gets the nomination, she'll be running against one of the Republicans.

At that point, you only have one choice if you actually hold progressive beliefs. The choice will be that nominee, or President Trump/Cruz/whatever monster emerges from their convention.

Literally any position you hold dear (income inequality, racial equality, immigration, etc) will be 1000000x worse under that Republican. If you care about the people who would be affected by that, your choice is clear.

"But what about her vote for the Iraq War!? What about the 100,000 dead Iraqis!?"

Will withholding a vote from Clinton resurrect them? Will withholding a vote from Clinton undo the war? Will withholding a vote from Clinton undo anything you have against her?

No, but withholding a vote from Clinton will help the Republican nominee win if she's the Democratic nominee.

You don't have to agree to disagree. You have to acknowledge that if you are sincere in any progressive position you espouse, the only option is to vote for whoever the Democratic nominee is, no matter how personally odious you might find them, because the Republican alternative is infinitely worse. When President Trump is kicking your non-white/straight/Christian/etc friends' teeth in, they won't be very comforted that you've kept your conscience as pure as the driven snow.

It's not about Clinton being necessarily better, or owing the Democrats the vote, or party loyalty, or personally approving of her. It's about not having a Republican be President and hurting many people. If Sanders gets the nomination I'll vote for him in a heartbeat over the Republican, because whatever issues I have with him are dwarfed by the issues I have with Trump or Cruz or Ryan or Romney or...
posted by Sangermaine at 11:14 AM on March 15, 2016 [49 favorites]


Honestly, he has plenty of details. His plan is much simpler than the status quo and doesn't need fifteen three-ring binders to describe - one of the key benefits of single-payer is doing away with the vast complexity that creates those loopholes in the first place.

I always go back to this Corey Robin piece about health care complexity: "Aside from the numbers, what I’m always struck by in these discussions is just how complicated Obamacare is. Even if we accept all the premises of its defenders, the number of steps, details, caveats, and qualifications that are required to defend it, is in itself a massive political problem. As we’re now seeing.

More important than the politics, that byzantine complexity is a symptom of what the ordinary citizen has to confront when she tries to get health insurance for herself or her family. As anyone who has even good insurance knows, navigating that world of numbers and forms and phone calls can be a daunting proposition. It requires inordinate time, doggedness, savvy, intelligence, and manipulative charm (lest you find yourself on the wrong end of a disgruntled telephone operator). Obamacare fits right in with that world and multiplies it."
posted by dialetheia at 11:15 AM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


re: announcing chosen ballot at the voting place:

I also voted in Illinois, they didn't do that for me.
...
Really?!? That's never happened to me and I've voted in every primary and general election since moving to Illinois in '09.
...
I also voted this morning in Chicago, and there was no such requirement.

Interesting. So I looked it up. The relevant statute, I assume:
Any person desiring to vote at a primary shall state his name, residence and party affiliation to the primary judges, one of whom shall thereupon announce the same in a distinct tone of voice, sufficiently loud to be heard by all persons in the polling place.
posted by whatnotever at 11:15 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Quite honestly, as terrible as supporting the Iraq War was, she was hardly alone in that. If you're going to criticize her for militancy in foreign policy, criticize her tenure at State. Libya, Haiti, Honduras, etc. should be brought up before Iraq, because those are places we might actually be able to do something about immediately.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:16 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Way back in the early months of the 2008 Democratic nomination battle, the online hive of liberal wonkery was abuzz with controversy.

The health care plans announced by the Clinton and (especially) Obama campaigns had come under fire for being short on specifics and vague about key issues. The controversy was dominating the campaign news cycle, and now liberal pundits were split.

One side (including Paul Krugman and the New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn) saw the sparse details and general vagueness of Obama’s proposals (and, to a lesser extent, Clinton’s) as a serious problem that reflected poorly on the candidates.

But one prominent wonk demurred — Matt Yglesias:
Implicit in the pro-details side of things seems to be a kind of mandate literalism about the American legislative process. The idea is that if a candidate has a proposal on the table, runs on the proposal, gets attacked on the proposal, and then wins the election anyway that this makes it much more likely that congress will actually pass the proposal.

That makes a ton of logical sense. But is it historically accurate?

Meet the New Harry and Louise: Vox’s attack on Bernie Sanders is sold as a policy critique. It’s actually a dishonest exercise in managing the Democratic Party base.

posted by kyp at 11:17 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


I do not understand the super narrow focus on the details of his health care plan when Clinton barely has one at all

Health care reform, and specifically single payer, is one of the the centerpieces of his platform. In dollar figures, both nationally and for individuals, it would probably the most significant single plank in that would effect everyone in the country. It would be a radical transformation of how America pays for healthcare. Clinton's plan is both incremental and also not a central plank of her platform.

I really do not see how it's surprising that people would want to understand -- and therefore would focus on -- the details of Sander's plan, given how central it is to his platform and how radical a shift it would be if enacted.

It is kind of a weird. double-standard. Of course the plan would change as it was debated, voted on, and implemented - everybody knows that. Of course a lot of details would need to be hammered out
.

It's also kind of a weird double standard to laud his healthcare policy's positives for the plan-as-is, but oppose any criticism on the grounds that it would necessarily change in practice.
posted by cjelli at 11:17 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


And, I mean, 'it would be a radical transformation of how we do healthcare' isn't necessarily a bad thing, at all. We don't do healthcare well now. But Clinton's plan is incremental, and it's relatively easy to look at it and see how it would or would not work, and for whom, whereas Sanders plan, by its sheer scale invites questions.

Not necessarily negative questions, not necessarily critical questions, but necessarily necessary questions, because understanding what a massive restructuring of American healthcare policy would look like is complicated. Of course people are focusing on it. Focus isn't bad.
posted by cjelli at 11:21 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Already we have the narrative going out that Clinton has "bought"the election, and nobody but Wall Street could possibly vote for her

Despite the fact that she's gotten around a full 50% more votes than Sanders. But those are the moneyed elites... you know, poor black folks and so on.
posted by Justinian at 11:22 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


re: Bernie raising taxes: remember that the Ds nominated a decorated war-hero and by election he was the chablis-sippin', brie-eatin' wimp while the R nominee, who spent the war on a bender, was the real hero.

The Rs will absolutely destroy Sanders.
posted by fingers_of_fire at 11:24 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


In case you haven't noticed, chief, Turd Blossom ain't callin' the shots at the Republican HQ anymore.
posted by entropicamericana at 11:26 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


The Rs will absolutely destroy Sanders.

Everyone said that about Obama, too. Besides, they will equally 'destroy' Clinton - we haven't even begun to talk about her time at State beyond Benghazi, the disaster in Libya, the Clinton Foundation, or whatever Bill has been up to for the last 8 years.
posted by dialetheia at 11:26 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


That being said I think we can achieve universal coverage without necessarily going to a single-payer model.

We can get everyone insured, which sounds great as a political accomplishment, but is worthless unless the coverage is actually good. Let's stop writing "filet mignon" on a six-piece chicken nugget holster from Wendy's and pretending that makes chicken nuggets filet mignon.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 11:27 AM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


The difference between now and 2004 as far as the media's ability to shape the character narrative of the two candidates (and the very idea of what the "center" of the country) is HUGE, and either Sanders and Clinton would have people smarter than the folks running Kerry's operation back then to navigate it. The Republicans are not the "fall in line behind the narrative" party they were in 2004 (they weren't in '08 or '12 either)
posted by MCMikeNamara at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I dunno. Speaking as someone who wants Clinton to win the primary, I think the R field is bad enough that Sanders would have a good shot against any of them even with all the Castro-loving commie shit they'd throw at him.
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


I do not understand the super narrow focus on the details of his health care plan

Because right now he doesn't actually have a plan. He has a summary on his website, and those of us who are interested in learning more are left to speculate. When he hits the general and posts a full-fledged plan, we'll be able to discuss it. Until then, chatting about what a good plan would and wouldn't include is not a reason for people to go on the attack.

I spent a lot of time explaining why I feel the details matter upthread. Don't really see a need to retype that here. But yeah, they absolutely matter. I've been the person they affected.

when Clinton barely has one at all

Which I quite clearly acknowledged. And now I'm done with that, because I want to focus on what a true revision to health care that covers the uninsured requires.

Dialatheia, I truly like and respect you. I appreciate that you are thoughtful in your responses. But it would be nice, for once, to discuss Sanders' policies (especially since other people are bringing them up in dumb, inaccurate ways,) without having the immediate defensive reaction be "BUT CLINTON." Clinton isn't writing Sanders' policies. She's not on his staff. And talking about his plans doesn't require that she be brought in as a comparison every single time, because it obfuscates the details. If you want someone like me, who is not sold on Sanders as a viable national candidate, to take his ideas and policy proposals seriously then they truly need to be able to stand on their own.

I set my bar higher than "well, the summary sounds good" because after several Presidential elections, "sounds good" is pie-in-the-sky without actual concrete details. So yes, I'd like to see how certain things will be handled. And yes, I think how those details are handled make a huge difference. And there's nothing wrong with discussing them, either. I also don't think it's too much to point out that mikelieman is wrong about something, and that it's shitty to imply that people are somehow not being "honest" if they note that.
posted by zarq at 11:28 AM on March 15, 2016 [23 favorites]


I think at this point all four frontrunners (Clinton and Sanders, Trump and Cruz) are equally destroyable. The lesser GOP establishment runner-ups are also destroyable, just in boringer ways.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:29 AM on March 15, 2016


We don't even know what the talking points are about Bernie yet, because he's totally unvetted. I really hope there aren't any massive skeletons in his closet, but we really wouldn't know if there were, because the Vermont press agreed with him that everything but his policy stances was off-limits. I have no idea if the Republicans will dig up anything that will stick. I certainly hope not, but a lot of sixties radicals said things that would now seem profoundly regrettable.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 11:31 AM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


If Sanders were to somehow get the nom, while Trump doesn't, maybe there will be an accelerationist meme among some Republicans to "Bern it all down" by voting in a socialist for president in the hopes that things would get so bad that the inevitable counterrevolution would throw him and the Democratic Party out, and smash the federal octopus.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:32 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I choose to give up Health Insurance Companies, and as a trade-off, we use the money saved on overhead for patient care.

Seriously. The largest insurers in the country are skimming, on average, somewhere between 7-10% of premiums paid off as profit, while paying top executives 8-figure salaries. Meanwhile, every health care provider in the country has staff dedicated to dealing with the 4,683 different arcane insurance rules they have to follow if you want your doctor to be paid. The moment you go single-payer, you cut costs by tens of billions of dollars, by definition. This tends to get painted as "the health care business will go belly-up and that would be AWFUL for the economy," but we somehow managed to survive the decline of the buggy-whip industry, y'know?
posted by Mayor West at 11:33 AM on March 15, 2016 [24 favorites]


Let's stop writing "filet mignon" on a six-piece chicken nugget holster from Wendy's

It's been a while but aren't Wendy's nuggets 5 pieces?
posted by mikelieman at 11:34 AM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Nah, the grownup contingent of the Republican party has investments and will throw everything they have behind a not-Trump candidate.

I think the worst matchup for Dems would probably be Sanders v Kasich, but that's also probably one of the most unlikely ones, so.
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:35 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


If it's Sanders vs. Trump, Trump will try to goad Sanders and Sanders' supporters into a lot more nasty confrontations. Sanders can try to keep it about issues, but Trump will try to create a false narrative that Sanders' supporters are reckless, chaotic, and seek to weaken America.
posted by FJT at 11:37 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


they might just cooperate with the Democrats if the later try to impeach him

Why are they all so coy about supporting his nomination, though, that's the thing that gets me. Seems easy enough for the Republican elite to sabotage his campaign well before he can get elected, by simply picking someone else to run against him and Hillary. They would lose the presidency but avoid going through the embarrassment of impeaching a fellow Republican. And they can focus their energies on impeaching Hillary, once she is coronated. If they don't like Trump, it's a problem they can solve, if they can put the republic ahead of winning at any cost.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:37 AM on March 15, 2016


Chicken nugget holster?
posted by ian1977 at 11:38 AM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Marco Rubio Communications Director Alex Conant: "Rubio supporters in Ohio should vote for John Kasich."


It's a bold strategy, Cotton, let's see how it pays off.
posted by Cookiebastard at 11:38 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


How much effort is the RNC going to even put into the general once Trump is their candidate?
posted by beerperson at 11:40 AM on March 15, 2016


If it's Sanders vs. Trump, Trump will try to goad Sanders and Sanders' supporters into a lot more nasty confrontations.

That will happen regardless as long as Trump is the nominee, though. The protest included a lot of Sanders supporters, but the Chicago and St. Louis protests were organized by students and Black Lives Matter organizers, not Sanders. MoveOn lent support but didn't organize the event. Expecting people of color to sit on the sidelines and not protest when such violent rhetoric is being thrown around is just not realistic. There will be protests regardless of who the nominee is, and the Republicans will try to pin that on any Democratic candidate.
posted by dialetheia at 11:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


If they don't like Trump, it's a problem they can solve, if they can put the republic ahead of winning at any cost.

ding ding ding we have a winner.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:40 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]




entropicamericana I really really hope you are right that the absence of Karl Rove means that the Republican oppo research machine will be ineffective. But I'm fairly confident that you are staggeringly wrong - and also that Bernie is a target that they would love love love to get their hands on.

It's true that their efforts against Obama (Rev. Wrights, Ayers) didn't stick - but then Obama is a more compelling candidate than either Sanders or Clinton, and he also had 8 years of Bush fatigue helping him out.

Also - they HAVE begun to talk about Hillary's issues. Remember her 10+ hour performance in the Benghazi hearings last fall? By all accounts she kicked ass while making the Senate Republicans look like the school children that they are. For reasons discussed at length in other threads, she has a lot of experience playing punching bag for the right. That is an asset.
posted by fingers_of_fire at 11:41 AM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Any person desiring to vote at a primary shall state his name, residence and party affiliation to the primary judges, one of whom shall thereupon announce the same in a distinct tone of voice, sufficiently loud to be heard by all persons in the polling place.

Yup, they called out my affiliation this morning, so all four workers and one other person voting at the time know I voted democratic.
posted by Windigo at 11:42 AM on March 15, 2016




It's probably telling that Trump is fixated on Sanders supporters. Who does he see as the bigger threat?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:43 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]



Here’s What [some] Trump Supporters Believe Will Happen If He Doesn’t Win

#12 seems pretty excited about his perceived prospects.
posted by Windigo at 11:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yo, I just want to say that if you don't know what a chicken nugget holster is, your employer is probably paying for your health insurance.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 11:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


By all accounts she kicked ass while making the Senate Republicans look like the school children that they are.

Oh yeah, I had forgotten about that. She was great! That definitely makes me feel less anxious about the Clinton-Trump debates.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:44 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


It's probably telling that Trump is fixated on Sanders supporters. Who does he see as the bigger threat?

Trump plays an anti-Establishment candidate on TV.

Sanders IS an anti-Establishment candidate.

I can easily see a lot of people who support Trump as an alternative to supporting the Establishment GOP candidates, getting a good look at Sanders' fiscally responsible policies, and crossing the aisle to vote for him.
posted by mikelieman at 11:46 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump is fixated on Sanders supporters. Who does he see as the bigger threat?

I mean, I do think that Sen. Sanders is the stronger candidate against Trump but I don't think that Trump is a particularly savvy political prognosticator. That is to say, I wouldn't use his perception as insight into anything beyond the horrifying world of the interior of his brain.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:47 AM on March 15, 2016


Here’s What [some] Trump Supporters Believe Will Happen If He Doesn’t Win

at least #14 had the presence of mind to hide his face
posted by burgerrr at 11:48 AM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


Brandon Stanton of @humansofny, who condemned @realDonaldTrump online, says it's time for influencers to be vocal.

Brandon takes some great photos and tells some great stories, but anyone who uses the word "influencer" without the slightest bit of self-awareness is part of the damn problem.
posted by My Dad at 11:49 AM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]




Yo, I just want to say that if you don't know what a chicken nugget holster is, your employer is probably paying for your health insurance.

I mean, I thought that nuggets came in a box with dipping sauce, but clearly the country has moved forwards on this issue.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:50 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yeah, I literally gasped at #14. I hope to god that was trolling.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:50 AM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I used to take him and his sister with me to vote when they were little ....They'd get stickers, too, and it was fun.

Thanks to all the parents who do this! Because the American education system certainly isn't useful in this regard. My politically active children talk of friends who came into this election cycle without a clue as to the importance of primaries and essentially thought it all came down to whoever was left standing when the conventions happened-with no idea as to how the primaries played into determining who would be left standing at the conventions.
posted by beaning at 11:52 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I mean, I thought that nuggets came in a box with dipping sauce, but clearly the country has moved forwards on this issue.

Mileage varies. That was a product of a more affluent time, generally, since the additional packaging adds costs, compared to the cardboard pouch, which is already in stock in various sizes, and just needs print runs with artwork.

( Full Disclosure: I spent a few years during the 80's with McDonald's thinking about these things. )
posted by mikelieman at 11:56 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I feel like #21 is a chill guy who has a good sense of perspective. Maybe I'm just being optimistic, though.
posted by selfnoise at 11:57 AM on March 15, 2016


There will be protests regardless of who the nominee is, and the Republicans will try to pin that on any Democratic candidate.

I don't think it will stick quite as hard though. There's a reason why Trump is hitting Sanders on the protest thing and not Clinton. Simply because it's an easier sell. It's not true at all, but it's an easier sell:

1) Sanders talks about "revolution" a lot
2) Sanders is a socialist
3) Sanders loves countries like Nicaragua and Cuba that have and revolutions
4) Sanders has the support of unpredictable youths and unemployed folks who have all the time to enact revolution

Clinton's boring Establishment, she's not a revolutionary at all.
posted by FJT at 11:57 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


During last year's general election, one of my friends posted on FB that his polling place was out of I Ohio Voting stickers, so he didn't get one. I'm glad I've never had to face such a tragedy.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:57 AM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


( Subsequently, I did time doing arcane things in the QA lab of a major international sandpaper manufacturer, which is neither sand, nor paper. )
posted by mikelieman at 11:58 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Here’s What [some] Trump Supporters Believe Will Happen If He Doesn’t Win

That's a whole lotta white people.

Also, WTF #14.
posted by zarq at 11:58 AM on March 15, 2016


Chicken nugget holster?

Yes, thanks to open carry states
posted by klarck at 11:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


Trump supporters, I believe, think themselves revolutionary. Shit, they're pretty much the same crowd that took over the wildlife preserve in Oregon .
posted by mikelieman at 11:59 AM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh my gosh, those fucking stickers. People talk about the stickers all the time when they mention why they don't want to vote early. They will give you a damn sticker if you do in-person early voting, and you can hold on to it and wear it on election day. We seriously thought about making our own stickers for people who filled out mail-in ballots, just so we had an answer to the objection.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 12:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I mean this is America, we're all supposed to be about revolution. And the difference between counterrevolutions and revolutions are usually just the intended goals, not the tactics used or the people waging them. Just ask the Vendée and the Chouannerie.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:01 PM on March 15, 2016


God, seeing "If Hillary wins, 1 world order" on that Trump supporter's sign reminds me that the classics never go out of style no matter how much talk radio you aren't listening to anymore.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 12:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


in retrospect I know what a chicken holster is but I didn't know they were called holsters. I feel like my fast food career could have been so much funnier if I had.
posted by ian1977 at 12:02 PM on March 15, 2016


The X Files are back! Black helicopters!
posted by Artw at 12:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Strangely, though, the poll workers do have to call out your ballot choice loudly and publicly; supposedly it's state law(?). It appears to serve no functional purpose, because the people they're calling to shouldn't be expected to keep track of which voter is getting which ballot that way, and the paper slip with printed sticker that you bring over to them serves the purpose much more reliably anyway.

This is a transparency-motivated move in service of theoretical poll watchers. Also from Chicago's law, in (10 ILCS 5/7-34) (from Ch. 46, par. 7-34) :
Pollwatchers shall be permitted to observe all proceedings and view all reasonably requested records relating to the conduct of the election, provided the secrecy of the ballot is not impinged, and to station themselves in a position in the voting room as will enable them to observe the judges making the signature comparison between the voter application and the voter registration record card; provided, however, that such pollwatchers shall not be permitted to station themselves in such close proximity to the judges of election so as to interfere with the orderly conduct of the election and shall not, in any event, be permitted to handle election materials. Pollwatchers may challenge for cause the voting qualifications of a person offering to vote and may call to the attention of the judges of election any incorrect procedure or apparent violations of this Code.
So the functional purpose is to give these folks enough information to look at their own materials. Sometimes that's for challenges, more often (in my observation anyway) it's about them looking at their list of likely voters and deciding who they might want to call and goad or offer a ride to.

Yeah, it's sorta dopey when there's nobody there to hear it. But from a pollworker training standpoint you want to try to get them to just be consistent in their behavior so they're always in compliance. Poll watchers often come and go or just do part of the day.
posted by phearlez at 12:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


melissasaurus: Here’s What [some] Trump Supporters Believe Will Happen If He Doesn’t Win (Buzzfeed)

#8 - Buzzfeed thought: "If Hillary Wins / 1 World Order" really? We're not even typing that one up (OK, they skipped a few others, so it looks like a hasty bit of work)

I'm not sure if that was part of BuzzFeed's 'K-File' cadre of Four 20-Somethings, aka the BuzzFeed Buzzsaw that campaigns should fear (good job BuzzFeedifying the title, NPR!)
posted by filthy light thief at 12:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


zarq: That's a whole lotta white people.

You're surprised that Trump rallies aren't more diverse? He's not exactly what I'd call a "unifying" force.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


ArbitraryAndCapricious: "Oh my gosh, those fucking stickers. People talk about the stickers all the time when they mention why they don't want to vote early. They will give you a damn sticker if you do in-person early voting, and you can hold on to it and wear it on election day. We seriously thought about making our own stickers for people who filled out mail-in ballots, just so we had an answer to the objection."

I've been voting in person forever and I can't remember ever getting a sticker.
posted by octothorpe at 12:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I've been voting in person forever and I can't remember ever getting a sticker.
In Illinois we used to get pins!
posted by Max Power at 12:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


And onions for your belt? (Sorry, knee-jerk Simpsons reference.)
posted by filthy light thief at 12:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


It's too easy to take shots at the writing and language skills of those Trump supporters in the Buzzfeed post, but here I go anyway. Also LOL at the use of "tariffs" in #17. Don't tread on me! Wahhhh!
posted by witchen at 12:09 PM on March 15, 2016


I've been voting in person forever and I can't remember ever getting a sticker.
In Illinois we used to get pins!


I'm assuming y'all stopped because most people didn't have room on their lapel for more than three.

OR!

But you can't fasten a pin to a headstone
posted by phearlez at 12:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


#8 - Buzzfeed thought: "If Hillary Wins / 1 World Order" really? We're not even typing that one up

"Our entire business model is based on a huge quantity of traffic to our sites, but we don't need the hassle of showing up in those search results."
posted by MCMikeNamara at 12:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I didn't know they were called holsters

In technical terms, it's a 'box'
posted by mikelieman at 12:10 PM on March 15, 2016


melissasaurus: "Here’s What [some] Trump Supporters Believe Will Happen If He Doesn’t Win"

So sad to see obviously blue color people so mad about a $15 minimum wage.
posted by octothorpe at 12:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


My "I {Ohio/severed chicken head} voting" sticker fell off sometime between meetings and now I feel very sad.
posted by mostly vowels at 12:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My read on Trump is that as long as he's in circumstances that basically resemble a TV show, he's fine, but once he's outside the safety of a highly stage managed environment, he quickly loses his cool. I think this has worked for him so far because the rest of the GOP field has basically been reality TV show contestants, in that their responses have been narrowly constrained and relatively predictable, and Trump has a lot of experience with this and can handle it. It's his show, effectively, and he's done that for years. What remains to be seen is how this will play out against an opponent who isn't thrown off by his approach, because one thing both Clinton and Sanders have in common is a long track record of dealing with exactly this type of blowhard. Is he going to have a series of increasingly insane scenes at tightly controlled rallies while simultaneously drowning in bravado and nonsense during debates he will quickly bail on? I don't know. I don't think it's impossible that Trump might adapt, but I think it's a tall order to learn patience overnight. Just imagine Trump in Clinton's place during the Benghazi hearings, he'd melt down. I don't know, maybe it's just wishful thinking on my part to think this even matters, but part of me has the same feeling I did in 2012 where the media hyped a tight race that ultimately failed to materialize.
posted by feloniousmonk at 12:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Trump is making his volunteers sign a pledge saying they'll "prevent" their employees from volunteering for another candidate's campaign and that they agree that he can sue them if they "disparage" him or his family members or his companies.

It's a sign of how bad this election is that, at this point, I'm actually wishing he'd go back to talking about his penis.
posted by melissasaurus at 12:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


In Illinois we used to get pins!

OMG, when did that stop?!?

Sadly, if there was swag for voting I bet voter turnout would skyrocket. If you got a t-shirt at the poll? Probably 75% participation. I'm tempted to start a SUPER PAC....
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


That's the worst thing about caucusing: no stickers*.

*That's a lie - the worst thing about caucusing is actually everything about caucusing
posted by dinty_moore at 12:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


So sad to see obviously blue color people so mad about a $15 minimum wage.

You'd be mad about a $15/hr min wage if you were making $15/hr right now.
posted by klarck at 12:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Sadly, if there was swag for voting I bet voter turnout would skyrocket.

It should match whatever's in that year's Oscars gift bag.
posted by beerperson at 12:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Sorry, not necessarily "you".
posted by klarck at 12:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


So sad to see obviously blue color people so mad about a $15 minimum wage.

And head-desk-thumping (is that a thing we can say?) to know these are the same people who are wound the hell up about immigration. How much do you think that tomato is going to cost if they have to pay people wages legal immigrants & citizens will demand for the job, jerky?
posted by phearlez at 12:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Experts say Sanders’ plan might decimate the health-insurance industry...

Experts say that like it's a bad thing. I hope we can also decimate the anonymous expert industry.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 12:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Also LOL at the use of "tariffs" in #17. Don't tread on me! Wahhhh!

tariffs and protectionism are actually cool and good things to support imo
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 12:17 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Trump is making his volunteers sign a pledge

More details on that from The Daily Dot.
posted by cjelli at 12:17 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


So sad to see obviously blue color people so mad about a $15 minimum wage.

You'd be mad if about a $15/hr min wage if you were making $15/hr right now.


Yep. I guaran-damn-tee their beliefs are driven (at least partly) by that meme circulating about how combat soldiers only make $x amount and some BURGER-FLIPPER wants to come along and say they deserve more? How dare they! WTF, A BURGER-FLIPPER or OUR TROOPS? WHOSE SIDE ARE YOU ON.

That kind of thing. The real tragedy is...you don't have to choose. Combat soldiers and burger-flippers can support their families with reasonable wages!!!!
posted by witchen at 12:17 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Kill the fucking F35, and BOTH the Buger-Flipper and the Solder get a fucking living wage.

I expect that would happen on the first day of Bernie Sanders' appointee to Sec. Defense's service
posted by mikelieman at 12:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Nugget Holster is my new band name.
posted by uosuaq at 12:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Sec. Defense Alan Grayson, IMNSHO...
posted by mikelieman at 12:20 PM on March 15, 2016


A BURGER-FLIPPER or OUR TROOPS

Oh god, that meme. I see it like weekly from my aunt's sister.
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Nugget Holster is my new band name.

I think the Speedo company has it trademarked already :(
posted by mikelieman at 12:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Shit, they're pretty much the same crowd that took over the wildlife preserve in Oregon .

I'd guess that the leadership of that operation were probably Cruz voters, although some of the rowdy followers (like the people who wouldn't leave toward the end) are probably Trump voters. As vaunted electoral wizard Carl Diggler put it, "Gold standard-loving mountain folk of Idaho want a candidate they can shoot down an ATF helicopter with. That's Cruz."

Re: protesters, I really liked this video contrasting the way Trump responds to protesters to the way Obama responded. It really makes Trump look like the weak bully that he is.

So sad to see obviously blue color people so mad about a $15 minimum wage.

It got buried at the end of the last thread, but bardophile linked to a great piece making the argument that Trump's supporters are actually less blue-collar than we would expect: Misrepresenting the white working class: what the narrating class gets wrong: "Take the assumed popularity of Trump among the white working class, for example. There appears to be supporting evidence for that. According to Brookings, for example, in a national survey 55% of “Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who support Trump are white working-class Americans.” But this does not mean what Brookings thinks it means. Among all adult whites, nearly 70% do not have bachelor’s degrees (the definition of “working class” used here). This means that at 55%, the white working-class is under-represented among Trump supporters. Conversely, unless Trump is getting much more minority support than reported, his supporters are disproportionally college-educated whites. They make up 30% of the white population, but they are at least 40% of Trump voters in the Brookings survey."

On another note, I really enjoyed this podcast interview with Rutgers history professor Donna Murch about Sanders' appeal within the Black community: how Bernie Sanders has built a multi-racial anti-austerity campaign (there's a transcript too). Some people have finally started calling out the erasure of people of color who support Sanders, and I thought she had a lot of great insight into the kind of support he has been able to build in Black communities. I've been really disappointed to see people act like his only supporters are white men - it's quite disrespectful to his supporters who are women and people of color.
posted by dialetheia at 12:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [30 favorites]



That's not really a trade-off, but since there's no downside to getting ride of the heath insurance companies, you don't have any trade-offs...


Well, somewhere between 400k and 2.5 million people work in the insurance industry. It's a pretty big deal to get rid of major industry, even if it's one that doesn't seem to work well. If one of the good things about single-payer is increased efficiency (and it is), it's not clear where all of those people will go or what they will do.
posted by OmieWise at 12:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


so I just saw a pickup truck (in downtown Oakland) with a bumper sticker reading:
Bernie: Because Fuck this Shit
which like on the one hand I'm in such a bubble and basically don't have any first-hand clue whatsoever about how middle America thinks, but on the other hand even outside the west coast cities bubble there's a lot of "because fuck this shit" sentiment.

this is the chief point of overlap, as I see it, between Trump supporters and (some) Sanders supporters.

Anyway, I guess my point is that I halfway think that a Republican campaign built around presenting Sanders as a Scary Dangerous Castro-loving Commie might backfire. Not because America has any particular love for Castro or communism, but just because of our newfound tendency as a nation to support nearly anything that our governing institutions/media institutions oppose.

still think Clinton's going to get the nomination, still think that Trumpism is more popular than socialism, still utterly terrified about what America might become after this election.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:23 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


blue color people

Wow, two Arrested Development references already today.
posted by FJT at 12:23 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


...Obama is a more compelling candidate than either Sanders or Clinton...

???

To many (most?) Sanders supporters, Sanders is basically the most compelling candidate since FDR. Obama's main appeal was (a) not being Bush, (b) cool! a black President, and (c) not being Hillary Clinton. I supported him while also expecting him not to be the progressive that some people were saying he was.

I donated $35 total to Obama's campaign... in the general. I didn't even vote in the primary in 2008. I voted for Jill Stein in the general in 2012.

I've donated over $500 to Sanders' campaign so far (my spouse says I need to stop) and we went to his rally on Sunday and I've been looking forward to the Missouri primary since approximately September of last year.
posted by Foosnark at 12:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


You'd be mad about a $15/hr min wage if you were making $15/hr right now.

I make $17/hr and I'm not mad about a $15 minimum. Why would I be?
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


I know. Bernie is milking me dry! And I still don't have those bumper stickers!!!!!!!
posted by ian1977 at 12:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


This chart of the healthcare sector SPDR is a great proxy for why there is going to be a huge fight over healthcare if any significant changes are proposed. That particular fund is worth ~$12 billion and if you add up all of the similar ones the amount quickly jumps higher. For some, basic physical wellness is at stake, for others, fortunes exist to be made or preserved. I'm definitely not arguing for the status quo or whatever, but this is the situation.
posted by feloniousmonk at 12:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah presumably people that are making $15 now will likely overall get a raise if the minimum wage is set at $15. Its not like it would turn a currently NOT minimum wage job into a minimum wage job. Employer would have to pay more to remain competitive.
posted by ian1977 at 12:26 PM on March 15, 2016


You'd be mad if about a $15/hr min wage if you were making $15/hr right now.

My brother-in-law keeps griping about the idea of a $15 minimum wage. He's in a line of work that requires some skill and training, but not college, and it took him a long time working up the ranks to make much more than $15 an hour. So he rants "why should a teenager flipping burgers make the same thing starting out that I did after 10 years of hard work! I'll just quit and take an easy fast food job!"

So I say "1) Isn't it a great thing that you'd be able to take literally any job out there without losing much money? If you think fast food would be easier and more fun, go for it! 2) Don't you think that when your employer sees that everyone on his staff can leave at any moment for the same money, he'll have to raise wages to keep good workers?" Somehow, the BIL is not happy about either of these things. It doesn't matter that his situation will improve; all that he sees is that some "less worthy" person will have it easier than he did, and that's what rankles.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 12:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [51 favorites]


Does anyone feel like a Trump vs Whoever battle isn't so much a battle of progressivism vs conservatism but a battle for the country's soul? I know if Mittens was elected he would open the floodgates for him and his billionaire buddies to further loot the country but at least he'd still be polite and use euphemisms for dog whistles.

This feels like the dog whistles are over and pretty soon the over racism at large will begin.
posted by Talez at 12:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


the kind of support he has been able to build in Black communities

I cultivate my echo chamber, but damn I'm following some cool black women lately. They really bring the rhetoric.
posted by Trochanter at 12:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


You're surprised that Trump rallies aren't more diverse? He's not exactly what I'd call a "unifying" force.

Just noting that his attempt to unite all the pale shades under one banner is clearly working.
posted by zarq at 12:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yes, whether you're an urban racist xenophobe, or a rural racist xenophobe, or even a suburban racist xenophobe, ITS A BIG TENT
posted by ian1977 at 12:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


To many (most?) Sanders supporters, Sanders is basically the most compelling candidate since FDR.

Yes, it makes sense that Sanders supporters would find Sanders more compelling. But I thought Obama is more compelling. And to be honest, Sanders leaves me a little cold.

And back in the day, there was a very big amount of hype about Obama. I remember his two books were best sellers, the press loved him, and will.i.am did a song about his campaign. It was insane in some ways when I think back on it.
posted by FJT at 12:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


It's a pretty big deal to get rid of major industry, even if it's one that doesn't seem to work well.

It would be a huge dislocation, to be sure. I imagine that there would be programs put in place to reeducate* retrain us and so on. I'd much rather see people get the services they need more efficiently than have a job as a gatekeeper, though (and I'm lucky in that my job actually is to help people get through the system, as opposed to increasing my employer's profit margin. Shudder. That's soul-killing work.

*the communism emerges!
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Does anyone feel like a Trump vs Whoever battle isn't so much a battle of progressivism vs conservatism but a battle for the country's soul

If we elected Trump? Holy cats, I could never show my face in another country. We'd be the complete laughing stock of the entire planet.
posted by ian1977 at 12:33 PM on March 15, 2016


Why is it always teenagers flipping burgers the go to, like every fast food place I visit is mostly people over 35 behind the counter?
posted by The Whelk at 12:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [35 favorites]


???

To many (most?) Sanders supporters, Sanders is basically the most compelling candidate since FDR. Obama's main appeal was (a) not being Bush, (b) cool! a black President, and (c) not being Hillary Clinton. I supported him while also expecting him not to be the progressive that some people were saying he was.


This is kind of revisionist history, I think possibly colored by how people feel let down by Obama. Obama in 2008 was a phenomenon. He was like a rock star at his events. His supporters were every bit as fervent and motivated then as the Sanders people are now.

I'm not sure who is more compelling, but it's just blatantly false that the only reason people voted for him were the three you give. People really, really believed in him and what he was saying in '08. In fact,the reasons you give were exactly the spin the Republicans gave after he won: he was just some black guy who won because of his race.

We ran a "not-Bush" in '04. Didn't go so well
posted by Sangermaine at 12:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [26 favorites]


So he rants "why should a teenager flipping burgers make the same thing starting out that I did after 10 years of hard work! I'll just quit and take an easy fast food job!"
For the kingdom of heaven is like unto a man that is an householder, which went out early in the morning to hire labourers into his vineyard. And when he had agreed with the labourers for a penny a day, he sent them into his vineyard. And he went out about the third hour, and saw others standing idle in the marketplace, And said unto them; Go ye also into the vineyard, and whatsoever is right I will give you. And they went their way. Again he went out about the sixth and ninth hour, and did likewise. And about the eleventh hour he went out, and found others standing idle, and saith unto them, Why stand ye here all the day idle? They say unto him, Because no man hath hired us. He saith unto them, Go ye also into the vineyard; and whatsoever is right, that shall ye receive. So when evening was come, the lord of the vineyard saith unto his steward, Call the labourers, and give them their hire, beginning from the last unto the first. And when they came that were hired about the eleventh hour, they received every man a penny. But when the first came, they supposed that they should have received more; and they likewise received every man a penny. And when they had received it, they murmured against the goodman of the house, Saying, These last have wrought but one hour, and thou hast made them equal unto us, which have borne the burden and heat of the day. But he answered one of them, and said, Friend, I do thee no wrong: didst not thou agree with me for a penny? Take that thine is, and go thy way: I will give unto this last, even as unto thee.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 12:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


Just voted for Bernie in St. Louis. Team Bernie has been hard at work here- there were Bernie signs placed at the perimeter outside my polling place, and when I went home there was a Bernie doorknob hanger on my apartment door. Did not see a single sign for any other candidate.

In the past few months I've seen cars with mostly Bernie stickers, a couple Trumps, and one Carson. oh, and one car that I walk by daily that has both Hillary and Bernie.

There were two other people voting at the same time - the woman with a baby in front of me was not on The List and had to go to the Other Table to figure it out. Might've been an ID thing.

The polling worker who set up the machine for me was super nice and excited about the process and was telling me how the machines had to be turned off for 30 days after the election so the vote we have in April will be all paper ballots.

I wore my sticker to the store and the cashier was like "Oh I forgot that's today!" so I may have inspired one person to go vote.
posted by ghostbikes at 12:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Two thoughts.

1) I have some Trumpist friends. I've heard "Make America Great Again" a number of times. I've taken to asking them to name the last five American history books they have read. If silence were golden, I'd be getting rich.

2) Pet peeve: I'm so sick and tired of Democrats being passive and defensive (and in some cases shaping their responses) when it comes to what the other party might think or do. To hell with them. Who says they get to dictate the narrative? Dems need to positively and aggressively recapture both political dialogue and policy debates in this country. Call 'em like you see 'em. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.
posted by CincyBlues at 12:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


> It doesn't matter that his situation will improve; all that he sees is that some "less worthy" person will have it easier than he did, and that's what rankles.

This is almost the definition of the politics of resentment, isn't it?
posted by benito.strauss at 12:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


People thought Obama would be the new JFK, and then forgot that JFK wasn't actually all that progressive.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


We ran a "not-Bush" in '04. Didn't go so well

To be fair, we also tried to run a compelling candidate, but then he screamed that one time.
posted by dinty_moore at 12:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [33 favorites]


Why is it always teenagers flipping burgers the go to, like every fast food place I visit is mostly people over 35 behind the counter?

Exactly. Low-wage workers are older than you think: "88% of workers that would benefit from a minimum wage increase are older than 20, 1/3 are over 40."
posted by dialetheia at 12:37 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


"This Jesus guy. Not fair to hardworking Americans. Weak. #MakeAmericaGreatAgain"
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


like every fast food place I visit is mostly people over 35 behind the counter?

Somewhere out there, Kevin Smith is saying, "See, see! Clerks II was just ahead of it's time!"
posted by FJT at 12:38 PM on March 15, 2016


but then he screamed that one time.

And then he sold out and became a turncoat lobbyist.
posted by Justinian at 12:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Why is it always teenagers flipping burgers the go to, like every fast food place I visit is
mostly people over 35 behind the counter?


Because in the conservative belief system, fast food jobs are the first steps for kids into the real world of Self-Sufficient Hard Work. Anyone older than a teen doing those jobs is obviously a lazy moron who needs a good dose of bootstraps, not a handout.
posted by Sangermaine at 12:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


We'd be the complete laughingstock of the entire planet.

Eight years of Bush sort of turned that into the new normal. Even with Obama in charge, Tea Party shenanigans and Palin in the news kept on making us look goofy.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2016


wore my sticker to the store and the cashier was like "Oh I forgot that's today!"

I know most Americans aren't nearly as politics-crazy as us, but AHH WTF really?
posted by tivalasvegas at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I dunno. Bush will look like an elder statesman compared to Trump I think.
posted by ian1977 at 12:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It would be a huge dislocation, to be sure. I imagine that there would be programs put in place to reeducate* retrain us and so on. I'd much rather see people get the services they need more efficiently than have a job as a gatekeeper, though (and I'm lucky in that my job actually is to help people get through the system, as opposed to increasing my employer's profit margin. Shudder. That's soul-killing work.

Well, sure, but this is once again talking past each other. I'm not saying (and I don't see others in this thread saying) that we should preserve the insurance companies. The Post was saying, and I'm saying, that just looking at the "Positive" side of the ledger does not a plan make, especially if there are big "Negative"s that have not yet been accounted for.

It's frankly weird to both want to point out the damage done by trade deals and basically shrug or change the subject when it comes to people who stand to lose their jobs under a major health insurance reorganization.
posted by OmieWise at 12:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


I mean, it's a lotta people!
posted by OmieWise at 12:41 PM on March 15, 2016


Trump supporters, I believe, think themselves revolutionary. Shit, they're pretty much the same crowd that took over the wildlife preserve in Oregon .

exactly zero of the mormons i know, including the incredibly radical/devout ones, support trump. if anything, they're "anybody besides trump, except hillary because she's a missing member of a 1/3 of the host of heaven."
posted by nadawi at 12:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


needs a good dose of bootstraps

Maybe we need to re-frame things in terms of how many more boostraps a higher minimum wage would let them buy.
posted by cjelli at 12:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]




It's frankly weird to both want to point out the damage done by trade deals and basically shrug or change the subject when it comes to people who stand to lose their jobs under a major health insurance reorganization.

Why wouldn't many of those jobs just become government jobs doing many of the same things within a better system? Besides, single-payer wouldn't put all health insurance companies out of business - even in countries with national systems like the NHS, there is still a substantial market for private insurance to cover extra benefits beyond the baseline provided by the public system.
posted by dialetheia at 12:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yeah presumably people that are making $15 now will likely overall get a raise if the minimum wage is set at $15.

Not necessarily, and probably not right away for a lot of people. I landed a job in college that paid a bit more than minimum wage in MI, and had minimal pay raises annually. When the minimum wage got bumped up to about what I made, I had no corresponding bump up in pay. I wasn't too upset, but my coworker was livid that newbies now made as much as her. I pointed out that it's not the law's fault our employer doesn't value our experience more than $X per hour.

I think it was easier to be angry at the law than the job you were stuck in because the economy sucked, a job that didn't value your experience because you're just an easily replaceable body (ha! I had customers asking after me for years after I left because I got shit done, but it obviously didn't impact the bottom line because they're still a minimum wage job now).
posted by ghost phoneme at 12:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


we stereotype "burger flippers" as teenagers (and often teen boys) because it helps hide that it's a majority adult women trying to support their families. it's also why we stereotype abortion seekers as 22 year old irresponsible "girls" rather than adult women who have or will have children.
posted by nadawi at 12:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [40 favorites]


Bernie's rage against the machine: "Sanders’s candidacy has beaten back elite, establishment corporate centrism, offering his party a viable progressive alternative. That’s why he has already won."
posted by dialetheia at 12:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


People really, really believed in him and what he was saying in '08.

And places like the now-defunct Digg were full of critiques of his messaging--they were almost completely "inspirational" pieces that almost studiously avoided hard positions. Lots of people brought it up. I saw those Hope and Change commercials on TV and was hit by how anyone could choose to believe anything they wanted about their core message. A lot of it boiled down to "Good things, not bad things." In fact it pushed me away from the Democrats in that race (I consider myself a mostly liberal independent.)
posted by Phyltre at 12:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's frankly weird to both want to point out the damage done by trade deals and basically shrug or change the subject when it comes to people who stand to lose their jobs under a major health insurance reorganization.

And just to be clear about what I'm saying: the progressive argument for trade deals is that they substantially raise the standard of living among the world's poorest people. They are not perfect in doing this, for all kinds of design reasons, but as much as it sucks to be poor in America, most poor people in America have a much higher standard of living than most of the world's poor.

I bring this up because while I am not a supporter of the trade deals we have, I think that the conversation about them is fairly American centric on the Left. So when you talk about the benefits to be had by something like doing away with the insurance industry because of what that would represent in terms of people having insurance, I think it's also important to note that the rhetoric about trade deals focuses too heavily on who has gotten screwed by them in America.
posted by OmieWise at 12:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


I saw those Hope and Change commercials on TV and was hit by how anyone could choose to believe anything they wanted about their core message.

Yeah, someone on Metafilter a few months ago suggested that Obama did too promise huge progressive change since his campaign slogan was HOPE. I wondered how the two things were necessarily related.
posted by OmieWise at 12:48 PM on March 15, 2016


oh thank god we finally have a thread to litigate Obama's 2008 campaign promises
posted by beerperson at 12:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [35 favorites]


If we elected Trump? Holy cats, I could never show my face in another country. We'd be the complete laughing stock of the entire planet.

Eh, it would probably be a moot point, since most of the civilized world would close its borders to us immediately. There's a reason Trump thinks Mexico is going to pay for that wall.
posted by Mayor West at 12:49 PM on March 15, 2016


Why wouldn't many of those jobs just become government jobs doing many of the same things within a better system? Besides, single-payer wouldn't put all health insurance companies out of business - even in countries with national systems like the NHS, there is still a substantial market for private insurance to cover extra benefits beyond the baseline provided by the public system.

It sounds like you are asking for exactly what I am asking for: a plan that shows this is workable without simply disrupting the economy and introducing unintended harms.
posted by OmieWise at 12:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Why wouldn't many of those jobs just become government jobs doing many of the same things within a better system?

Commission? Lots of sales folks all over the industry. Plus some of those hired merely to deny claims would be hard pressed to find a niche.

There would still be a private health insurance industry, just more exclusive.
posted by Max Power at 12:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's frankly weird to both want to point out the damage done by trade deals and basically shrug or change the subject when it comes to people who stand to lose their jobs under a major health insurance reorganization.

Why wouldn't many of those jobs just become government jobs doing many of the same things within a better system?
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, administrative costs in Medicare are only about 2 percent of operating expenditures. Defenders of the insurance industry estimate administrative costs as 17 percent of revenue.
A lot of that extra 15 percent is labor cost, and it wouldn't all be absorbed into a Medicare-equivalent single-payer system.
posted by Etrigan at 12:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Why wouldn't many of those jobs just become government jobs doing many of the same things within a better system?

Because one of the ways single payer saves money is by reducing administrative costs, and one of the main ways it reduces administrative costs is by reducing the need for having multiple people per office sorting out insurance paperwork.

If there's a 1:1 ratio in healthcare administration jobs after the implementation of a single-payer plan, that plan is going to be more expensive (and result in, presumably, a higher tax burden, or other revenue needed) than one that does cut jobs, making it less appealing as a cost-saving measure.
posted by cjelli at 12:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


"still utterly terrified about what America might become after this election."

Assuming Trump does not become POTUS, I am actually heartened by this election cycle. For once, in my lifetime, candidates that are not part of the party establishment, who are not following tightly focus-grouped "messaging" narratives are doing well. It could open the process to even better (and admittedly worse) folks throwing their hats in the ring in future cycles.
posted by jetsetsc at 12:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]




I think there are two issues with the disruption that would be caused by the transition to single-payer: the actual issue and then the politics of it. It's clear that the transition would cause problems for some people, and ideally we would find a way to manage that pain, because it's the right thing to do. But the system isn't working now, and I think you could argue that the disruption would be worth it, even if some people would lose their jobs. But there's also the issue of the politics. I personally ran into a bunch of people who told me that they wouldn't vote for Obama in 2012 because they worked in healthcare and thought that the ACA was going to cost them their livelihood. I think that was totally overwrought, but they couldn't be convinced. Insurance is a pretty big industry in my state, and we're going to have to figure out things to say to concerned voters that aren't just "sometimes you have to break some eggs to make an omelet, and sadly you're one of the eggs."

Having said that, people who work in healthcare can also have trouble paying their healthcare costs, especially if they're not at the very top of the system, and I wouldn't assume that everyone in the industry will be opposed to reform.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 12:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


oh thank god we finally have a thread to litigate Obama's 2008 campaign promises

Someone upthread said Obama didn't motivate people like Sanders. Whether or not he kept his campaign promises or whether or not Obama actually promised anything meaningful, the point is he really did move and excite people in 2008. It's wrong to say his support was a Kerry-like settling for someone because he wasn't a Republican. People really believed. Whether they should have is another issue.
posted by Sangermaine at 12:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


nearly every single person I've heard espousing the wish that Trump become President in order to usher in a leftist revolution... has also been a white male. Realistically speaking, we'd be the least likely people to be killed in an anti-Trump revolution.

FWIW, we're also the least likely to be killed under a Trump presidency.

yeah, there's not going to be an anti-Trump leftist revolution. The violence will be coming from the other side, and it doesn't really matter whether Trump wins or not. If he wins, they'll be encouraged. If he loses, they'll be pissed.
posted by Naberius at 12:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


This live-action adaptation of Brian Wood's DMZ is getting weird.
posted by Apocryphon at 1:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I bring this up because while I am not a supporter of the trade deals we have, I think that the conversation about them is fairly American centric on the Left. So when you talk about the benefits to be had by something like doing away with the insurance industry because of what that would represent in terms of people having insurance, I think it's also important to note that the rhetoric about trade deals focuses too heavily on who has gotten screwed by them in America.

Agreed. I don't agree with the doctrinaire ideologues on either side of the protectionism/free trade-ism debate. I'd like to see a real conversation about the tradeoffs both here and globally. I suspect I'd actually come down more in favor of free trade than Sen. Sanders does, but I also bet that he knows a hell of a lot more than I do about these issues, so maybe he's right.

I do think that there should be labor and environmental standards built into trade deals that protect the workers in developing countries and ensure that corporations aren't making money off a global race-to-the-bottom. I guess that makes me a fair-trade person? But every deal gets sold as "fair trade" / "gold standard", etc. and the damn things are so complicated that you can't really understand what the ramifications are without a doctorate in international economics (and even then, I suspect a time machine would be needed).
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


[Couple of comments deleted. Election threads are terrible, I agree, but if you hate them please just skip them, rather than coming in here to just add even more negative stuff?]
posted by LobsterMitten at 1:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Does anyone know what Trump's support among the military is? I think I've read that the top brass doesn't like him, but what about the rank-and-file?
posted by Sangermaine at 1:04 PM on March 15, 2016


> If we elected Trump? Holy cats, I could never show my face in another country. We'd be the complete laughing stock of the entire planet.

This quote seems relevant here. I don't know how much laughing anyone would be doing.
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:05 PM on March 15, 2016


Even Krugman is finally coming around on trade:  "The Times columnist made his name by ridiculing critics of globalization. Now he admits that “free-trade” cheerleading was mostly garbage."
posted by dialetheia at 1:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Does anyone know what Trump's support among the military is? I think I've read that the top brass doesn't like him, but what about the rank-and-file?

Military Times survey: Troops back Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders for president
posted by dialetheia at 1:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


One way you could manage the disruption of the private health care industry while still controlling costs long-term is to create private health care worker welfare. If, as the time of the passing of X bill, you have been employed by the private health care industry for more than N years, and you have no other employment, then the government will pay you your current salary, indexed to inflation, until you reach age Y.

Is it terrible that these people are getting paid to do nothing? A little. But, its a finite amount of money in the long run, and it makes the transition from private to public health care much more gentle and fair to the people who are made redundant. Over time, those people will find other work, reach "retirement", or die, and then we can enjoy the full cost savings of single payer healthcare vs. Rube Goldberg healthcare roulette.
posted by rustcrumb at 1:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


witchen: Don't tread on me! Wahhhh!

There's a van with the Gadsden Flag image with "Don't Tread On My Gun Rights," and I realized anyone could appropriate the "Don't Tread on my [blank] Rights," so I wanted to make one that says "Don't Tread on Women's Rights."


You Can't Tip a Buick: so I just saw a pickup truck (in downtown Oakland) with a bumper sticker reading:

Bernie: Because Fuck this Shit


I've seen one here in New Mexico, so I had to look it up. Sadly, it's not one of his official stickers.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Does anyone know what Trump's support among the military is? I think I've read that the top brass doesn't like him, but what about the rank-and-file?

Coincidentally, the Military Times just released a poll yesterday:

Trump: 26.90%
Sanders: 21.91%
Cruz: 16.70%
Clinton: 11.17%
Rubio: 9.93%
Kasich: 7.70%
posted by zombieflanders at 1:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Oh, sure dialetheia gets her link in 1st.

It's shortcuts in commenting like this that are why we need me to Make MetaFilter Great Again.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Chicago voter here. I just got back from my polling place. They were asking everyone for ID.

Same, just voted. No ID asked for -- so something very screwy was going on there.

Busy for a primary.
posted by eriko at 1:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Extremely disruptive and extremely loud: The new power of Black activism with Ashley Williams
posted by melissasaurus at 12:43 PM on March 15 [2 favorites +] [!]


This is interesting, because so far Clinton has won the Black vote by 80 to 90 percent margins everywhere that she has run.

I don't really think I can buy the argument that Clinton is somehow anti-Black or that she represents the "same" strand of white supremacy as Trump .... unless you're willing to also argue that 90% of Black voters are ignorant and need to be gently educated as to whom they should "really" support.
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 1:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]




Military Times survey: Troops back Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders for president

Coincidentally, the Military Times just released a poll yesterday:

Trump: 26.90%
Sanders: 21.91%


Great, we can count on the troops to prop up Emperor Trump or the Sanders Revolution.
posted by Sangermaine at 1:13 PM on March 15, 2016


Because in the conservative belief system, fast food jobs are the first steps for kids into the real world of Self-Sufficient Hard Work. Anyone older than a teen doing those jobs is obviously a lazy moron who needs a good dose of bootstraps, not a handout.

I have heard this So. Many. Times.

"If you want more than $7.25 you should work harder! Go to school! Get a better job!" As though new jobs just magically appear when you're a hard worker, as though college is accessible for everyone, or is a magic ticket to financial success. These folks are aware, on some level, that the overall economy can be good or bad ("repeal the job-killing Affordable Care Act!") but they always think people work minimum wage jobs because of character flaws, not because that's all that is open to them.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 1:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


This is kind of revisionist history, I think possibly colored by how people feel let down by Obama.

Speaking for myself: it is not revisionist history. I literally made and posted an image that said:
    HOPE
    for the best
    PREPARE
    for disappointment

I know a lot of people did get really excited about Obama in 2008. I was caught up in that excitement a little bit -- largely excited to get the GOP out and inspired by the fact that he did get people's hopes up -- but I was not without concerns. Drone strikes and domestic spying and the TPP are really not terribly surprising to me.
posted by Foosnark at 1:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Coincidentally, the Military Times just released a poll yesterday:

Trump: 26.90%


Trump on McCain: "He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured."

How soon they forget.
posted by zarq at 1:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


This is interesting, because so far Clinton has won the Black vote by 80 to 90 percent margins everywhere that she has run.

Michigan was 68% Clinton to 28% Sanders.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Why are we even discussing single-payer like it's remotely likely to actually happen in the next decade?

Because we talked about allowing gays to marry much more than a decade out. (And that's just one example.) You talking about it, and you *KEEP* talking about it, and suddenly everybody has heard of it, and you have that much more of a chance.
posted by eriko at 1:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [53 favorites]


Michigan was 68% Clinton to 28% Sanders.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:16 PM on March 15 [1 favorite +] [!]


My apologies. Clinton has won Black voters by 70 - 90 percent everywhere she has run.

I retract my original, inaccurate statements.
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 1:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Bill Clinton hanging around Il on election day. (casual whistling) Just hanging around.
posted by Trochanter at 1:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I think it's pretty unlikely that the Supreme Court is going to rule that there has to be single payer health insurance, though. It's not hard to imagine substantial turnover in the Supreme Court, especially if there's a Democratic Senate after the election, which could happen. I don't really see a Democratic House happening until after the post-2020 redistricting.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:20 PM on March 15, 2016


Technically she has won black voters by 40-85% everywhere she has run. 70-30 is winning by 40% not 70%.
posted by Justinian at 1:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Among Cuyahoga Co. potential early voters, 15.6% (!) of Dems requested GOP ballots, likely to vote Kasich. Source

That should be good for Kasich. I wonder what it will mean for the Dem result? Are strategic voters more likely to support Bernie or Hillary?

Edit: Or they could be voting for Trump, I guess.
posted by AwkwardPause at 1:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I do think that Sen. Sanders needs to do better among black voters not merely because he can't win the nomination otherwise, but because progressive politics in a multiracial nation needs to be a multiracial coalition. I don't think it would be healthy for "progressivism" to be a white-people thing, any more than it is that conservatism is a white-people thing in the US right now.

(And yes, lots of ethnic minorities are actually conservatives in other Western countries. It's possible to espouse economic and even social conservatism while not being racist. American conservatives just can't seem to make it happen though....)
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


I voted for Obama in 2008 because he seemed committed to civil governance, not because I thought he was markedly left wing. I read his book...people who expected something other than a moderate Democratic administration from him were basing those expectations on something other than his stated goals.
posted by Ipsifendus at 1:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Trump: 26.90%
Sanders: 21.91%

Great, we can count on the troops to prop up Emperor Trump or the Sanders Revolution.


Why? Almost 75% of them don't want Trump, almost 80% don't want Sanders.

The fact that Sanders is pulling those numbers from the notably conservative military is impressive. The fact that the regular GOP candidates *aren't* is even more so.

The one thing you can say from these numbers is almost half of them will vote for these two rather than the GOP party candidate. Throw in Clinton's numbers, and it's almost 60% against the GOP party candidates.

That's the real shock. 60% of the military wants somebody who is not GOP.
posted by eriko at 1:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


I would say that it's good for Bernie.
Bill Clinton hanging around Il on election day. (casual whistling) Just hanging around.
What exactly do you think he's doing?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Why are we even discussing single-payer like it's remotely likely to actually happen in the next decade?

Given the weird swings in ideology this primary season has created so far, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some enterprising coalition of Republicans in the near-future says "you know how we ALL HATE Obamacare? Well, we've got something better! It's called single-payer, and even though it's more cost-effective, the TAX-AND-SPENDocrats aren't even pushing for it!"
posted by Greg Nog at 1:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Among Cuyahoga Co. potential early voters, 15.6% (!) of Dems requested GOP ballots, likely to vote Kasich. Source

I'm not sure why people assume that Dem voters requesting Republican ballots are voting against Trump, especially in the Rust Belt. A lot of his best support seems to come from disaffected Democrats: "His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats."
posted by dialetheia at 1:27 PM on March 15, 2016


I don't really think I can buy the argument that Clinton is somehow anti-Black or that she represents the "same" strand of white supremacy as Trump .... unless you're willing to also argue that [XX%] of Black voters are ignorant and need to be gently educated as to whom they should "really" support.

Black voters, like white voters, or women voters, or men voters, or poor voters, or wealthy voters, or any other demographic are not a monolith. One person's statements about their view of the election (and the role of activism in politics) does not negate other people's views or votes nor do their views or votes negate hers.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


My point is that Clinton is, by all appearances, wildly popular among people of color, and white liberals either flat out refuse to believe this, argue that it's somehow technically not true, or argue that people of color need to be whitesplained about how Bernie is good for them, or simply throw their hands up and hope that a Trump presidency will somehow expose the contradictions in capitalism and bring about The Revolution, in which thousands of huge marionette puppets will peacefully overthrow the American Empire and bring about a patchouli-scented era of peace and prosperity.

Clinton represents the status quo. Trump represents a descent into the long night of fascism, an era of midnight knocks, shiny boots, stiff-armed salutes and mass graves.

People of color understand this. They are prepared to accept the status quo, because they know the alternative is so, so much worse.
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 1:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


My point is that Clinton is, by all appearances, wildly popular among people of color, and white liberals either flat out refuse to believe this, argue that it's somehow technically not true, or argue that people of color need to be whitesplained about how Bernie is good for them

I'm confused about the context here - Ashley Williams is Black. So is Michelle Alexander, who wrote Why Hillary Clinton doesn't deserve the Black vote. I don't think anyone involved in the piece you're responding to was 'whitesplaining' anything.
posted by dialetheia at 1:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


Y'know, it's interesting that the proportion of support that candidates are getting in that military poll are almost directly in line with the candidates' dovishness. (Sure, Trump is batshit enough that he might get us into a war with Argentina for all we know, but he's at least expressed pretty on-point criticism of the wars during this primary season). Then you've got Sanders, a relatively isolationist liberal.

If you'd asked me to guess what the poll results would've been, I would have estimated much stronger support for Kasich and Rubio, establishment conservative types. Also warmongerers, though. So... maybe we should listen to the people who'd be on the front lines, and not the chickenhawks?
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


What exactly do you think he's doing?

So many wrong things I can say here....

Speaking solely for my area of Chicago (Chicago is *huge*, focusing on one person's stomping grounds is a great way to misread the city.) But, having said that, speaking solely for my area?

Not one sign that Clinton is running for president. Lots of Sanders ads. Lots of proud Sanders voters -- as in wearing Sanders gear -- voting today. But I was...confused? surprised? I'm not sure...but it sure seemed odd that there wasn't even a Clinton sign in the windows somewhere.

It's odd. There was plenty of both Clinton and Obama in this same neighborhood eight years ago. I don't know how to read those tea-leaves.

The neighborhood has changed in the last 8 years, true.
posted by eriko at 1:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


In regards to conservatives who are contemplating various strategies involving floor fights at the GOP convention, or independent bids by someone other than Trump, here's what I don't understand: given that any such scenarios are likely to result in a massive blowout at the polls, virtually guaranteeing the Democratic nominee the win, why are they bothering? Surely there must be some establishment Republicans somewhere who both hate Trump enough not to support him, and have the integrity to stand up in public and say, "It would be better for us to lose this Presidential election and spend the next four years fighting Clinton tooth and nail in Congress. At least that way we get to keep our souls."
posted by Ipsifendus at 1:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm confused about the context here - Ashley Williams is Black. So is Michelle Alexander, who wrote Why Hillary Clinton doesn't deserve the Black vote.

90% of voting Black people in my home state disagree with Ashley Williams and Michelle Alexander. White liberals hold up a few black folk who agree with them and say "look! look here! See? You should think like them. You should think like these black friends of mine, who've got the right idea!"

That's not whitesplaining?
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 1:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Michelle Alexander also explicitly says "[t]his is not an endorsement for Bernie Sanders." She thinks Bernie is better than Hillary, but she thinks he's profoundly problematic and that there's unlikely to be real change from within the Democratic party. That's a common view among black (and other) radicals, but it's wrong to depict it as an endorsement of Bernie, and I think it's important to recognize that most voters are not radicals.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:37 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


How soon they forget.

Live by the swiftboater, die by the swiftboater. I'm not a member of the party that made attacking a person's military record part of campaigning.
posted by eriko at 1:37 PM on March 15, 2016


White liberals hold up a few black folk who agree with them and say "look! look here! See? You should think like them. You should think like these black friends of mine, who've got the right idea!"

I posted, without further comment, a link to an interview with an activist who happens to be a black queer woman. You're reading into this way more than was actually there.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


That's a common view among black (and other) radicals, but it's wrong to depict it as an endorsement of Bernie, and I think it's important to recognize that most voters are not radicals.

Certainly, I didn't mean to represent it as if it was and I apologize if I did. I don't think Ashley Williams endorsed Sanders, either. I am just confused about the idea that it's not OK to link to other voices as well - even in states where 90% of Black voters voted for Clinton, I'm not sure why that 10% shouldn't deserve a voice, too. I don't think anyone is actually trying to say "everyone should think like this" when they post links to other perspectives but I am sorry if it comes across that way.
posted by dialetheia at 1:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Wow.

Just wow.

A statement that will neither win you Sanders voters or Trump voters.
posted by eriko at 1:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Coincidentally, the Military Times just released a poll yesterday:

Trump: 26.90%

Trump on McCain: "He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured."

How soon they forget.


Trump is more than one slogan, and it usually takes more than one slogan to sway a person.

But I would have loved to be a fly on the wall when groups of military people first heard that, to see how they reacted. That statement isn't flat-out anti-military, it's a crude effort by a draft dodger, who said that in prep school he received more military training than most actual soldiers did, to smear an actual combat vet as weak.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




And she literally says in the interview that "folks [disadvantaged along one or more axis] cannot afford to have anyone who is currently running actually win." So, it is not an endorsement of any candidate.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


New Slogan for Rubio:

Rubio: A Presidential Candidate At Whose Rallies you Don't Get Beaten Up
posted by theorique at 1:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Don't tread on me! Wahhhh!

Pwease No Steppy.
posted by sparkletone at 1:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


OK I wrote a whole response but it's not worth arguing this again.

I'm a supporter of Bernie Sanders and I'm not white, there are lots of other people who are black and brown who also support him. We're not made up and we're not race traitors.

Can we move on, please?
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [27 favorites]


Rubio: Relax nerds! You're safe here
posted by ian1977 at 1:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Sure, Trump is batshit enough that he might get us into a war with Argentina for all we know

He's gonna get us into more than a war in just Argentina. Trump has stated in a debate he'd send 30,000 soldiers into the Middle East again to fight ISIS. Along with his general hostility towards China, his campaign website has said he plans on boosting US military presence in the South China Sea.

I guess the only way you would vote for Trump and see him as not too war-like is if you think he's not saying what he means.
posted by FJT at 1:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Wow.

Just wow.

A statement that will neither win you Sanders voters or Trump voters.
Suddenly in the crowd, Rubio spotted a Bernie Sanders sign. Did he get angry? Did he threaten violence? Did he encourage his supporters to “rough up” the protester and “carry them out in a stretcher”?

Nah!
“Oh look, a Bernie Sanders sign,” Rubio said excitedly. “Don’t worry, you’re not gonna get beat up at my rally!”
The crowd cheered, as if it were something to actually cheer for rather than what should have simply been a fact. Oh well, at least they didn’t boo.
I'll take whatever little fig-leaf-shaped bits of paper count for political civility today, because there's so much open hate out there.

So let's all cheer for civility over hatred, even if we don't vote for the candidate.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [44 favorites]


Along with his general hostility towards China, his campaign website has said he plans on boosting US military presence in the South China Sea.

As someone who currently lives in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, I am really really concerned with Trump's rhetoric on China, Japan, North Korea, etc., etc., etc.
posted by melissasaurus at 1:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


“Oh look, a Bernie Sanders sign,” Rubio said excitedly. “Don’t worry, you’re not gonna get beat up at my rally!”

Poor Rubio - I almost feel sorry for him. He was probably just excited that he was still relevant enough to bother protesting
posted by dialetheia at 1:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Trump's foreign policy is really too terrifying to think about.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Sangermaine: But only one candidate will protect humanity from daemons, Orks, xeno-scum, and heretics.

AKA Muslims and Immigrants.

You act like a post-apocalyptic despot, you get called a post-apocalyptic despot. Donald Trump Quotes and Immortan Joe Gifs!
posted by filthy light thief at 1:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Rubio is just Jeb in younger and Cuban-American form. What's there to truly feel sorry for? He'll still be making millions from speaking tours and book deals for the rest of his life. So he doesn't get the power. He'll still get the money.
posted by Apocryphon at 1:51 PM on March 15, 2016


“Oh look, a Bernie Sanders sign,” Rubio said excitedly. “Don’t worry, you’re not gonna get beat up at my rally!”

Have a cookie, Marco. *hands over a stale fragment of graham cracker, the saddest cookie of all*
posted by duffell at 1:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


> But only one candidate will protect humanity from daemons, Orks, xeno-scum, and heretics.
posted by Sangermaine at 1:45 PM on March 15 [2 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]

It strikes me that there are at least two Chaos Gods that I'd rather see as President if the alternative is Trump.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Don't tread on me! Wahhhh!

Pwease No Steppy.


Anybody who votes Trump is just asking for it.
posted by Drinky Die at 1:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


But only one candidate will protect humanity from daemons, Orks, xeno-scum, and heretics.

Couldn't be Trump - if there was anyone who was the WAAAGH given flesh it would be him. I bet if you open his suit, you'll find a bunch of snotlings frantically working the gears as a gretchin barks catchphrases into a speaking cone.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 1:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


graham crackers aren't cookies any more than cereal is soup I will fight you
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Suddenly in the crowd, Rubio spotted a Bernie Sanders sign. Did he get angry? Did he threaten violence? Did he encourage his supporters to “rough up” the protester and “carry them out in a stretcher”?

BUT ... did anybody see what Rubio did then?

HE RAISED HIS RIGHT HAND IN A NAZI SALUTE!


posted by theorique at 1:55 PM on March 15, 2016




You know, I'm a terrible old cynic. For a few minutes I thought that quip about the Sanders sign was pretty good, pretty human.

Then here came the cynic. I didn't see no sign.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
posted by Trochanter at 2:00 PM on March 15, 2016


I mean, Clinton was expected to lose Illinois, right?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 2:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yep. Illinois is pretty much a neighbor of Vermont.
posted by localhuman at 2:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


I think she very well may lose Illinois, but she's still mostly considered the front-runner there. The thing to keep in mind is that winning or losing particular states isn't the most important thing. The most important thing is the delegate count. So if she loses by a little in some states but wins by a lot in others, she still gets most of the delegates.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


It's Vermont turtles, all the way down.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 2:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Shock Illinois exit poll: Hispanics voting 65-35 @BernieSanders over @hillaryclinton.

Brilliant! I'm super happy about that result, if it holds -- and as I said upthread, based on what I've been seeing in my majority-Latino neighborhood, I'm not all that shocked....
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




But, having said that, speaking solely for my area? Not one sign that Clinton is running for president. Lots of Sanders ads. Lots of proud Sanders voters -- as in wearing Sanders gear -- voting today. But I was...confused? surprised? I'm not sure...but it sure seemed odd that there wasn't even a Clinton sign in the windows somewhere.

in my area which was a guaranteed win for clinton (which is how it shook out) i saw one single clinton sign on election day. lots and lots of bernie - signs, shirts, flags, i'm sure someone was carrying tickertape w/ bernie's name on it just in case a parade broke out (hell, we actually had a pro-bernie parade during early voting) - and yet, still went to clinton. not saying that will happen in your area - could be just as easily that she know she won't take it so she didn't expend any primary efforts - just that signs don't equal support.
posted by nadawi at 2:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Remember - 538 had Clinton winning Michigan with a 99% chance.
posted by yertledaturtle at 2:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


What's there to truly feel sorry for? He'll still be making millions from speaking tours and book deals for the rest of his life. So he doesn't get the power. He'll still get the money.

Nah. In this country, you gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power.
posted by phearlez at 2:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


signs don't equal support

Absolutely. I'm pretty sure there were a lot more Chuy signs than Emmanuel signs in the mayoral race last year, and Rahm still won handily (if by much less than he was expected to).
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


She has been predicted to win Illinois:
...
Remember - 538 had Clinton winning Michigan with a 99% chance.


Which was, to be fair, an accurate representation of the polling at the time.

Not to say Sanders won't win Illinois today. Just that Clinton is indeed expected to take it. (Just as she was in Michigan.)
posted by saturday_morning at 2:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Clinton has hired a lot of people who were involved in the 2012 Obama election, and one of their favorite sayings was "yard signs don't vote." Signs are really not a high priority for the current Democratic electioneers.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


BUT ... did anybody see what Rubio did then?

HE RAISED HIS RIGHT HAND IN A NAZI SALUTE!


I did Nazi that, no.
posted by Sangermaine at 2:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


It's Vermont turtles, all the way down.

Sanders is elected with great ceremony. At the swearing in, he gives a secret gesture on live television- Howard Dean pulls a velvet rope and the giant banner of the Green Mountain Boys drapes over Old Glory in the background, overshadowing it. "Ha ha!" cackles the new Governor of the Vermont Republic. "You thought I was going to conquer America for a foreign power, but you never expected it was Ethan Allen's!"
posted by Apocryphon at 2:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


maple syrup uber alles
uber alles maple syrup
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Nate Silver and 538 has also made adjustments to their odds - based on demographics.
How The Democrats Will Do, Based On Demographics

*Note - there is no source for where/ how he got his demographic data on which he bases these claims.
posted by yertledaturtle at 2:16 PM on March 15, 2016


Vox: Where Sanders needs to win today to truly scare Hillary Clinton: Illinois is at the top of their list. "Illinois is the most important contest to watch today. Clinton has led in most of the polling there, but there’s at least a chance that the state might deliver Sanders a dramatic, race-altering upset — though if the victory is narrow, he won't gain much ground in delegates."
posted by dialetheia at 2:16 PM on March 15, 2016


for what might be the first time ever, my mom voted today. i'm terrified to ask her who she voted for...
posted by nadawi at 2:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


DONT TREAD
posted by nicepersonality at 2:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


> "Nate Silver and 538 has also made adjustments to their odds - based on demographics."

Their demographic models put the probability of a Clinton win at 66% in Illinois and 58% in Ohio -- still leaning in Clinton's favor, but much much closer and less certain than the polling models suggest, if the demographic models turn out to be the accurate ones. Note that's probability of win, not percentage victory. (In Ohio, for example, the demographics suggest it should be about a 3 percentage point Clinton win.)
posted by kyrademon at 2:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


She has been predicted to win Illinois:

And this is why you can't trust polls.
posted by zarq at 2:23 PM on March 15, 2016


pocketfullofrye: people are talking about indicting Hillary for the exact same things Rice and Powell did that nobody has ever mentioned.
faint of butt: Why can't we indict Rice and Powell too?

"We" (meaning politically-driven Washington prosecutors) certainly could.

But these are the first three Secretaries of State ever to use email in any substantial way. They had no previous model to follow, and did what seemed to make sense, and no one told them it was a bad practice. No apparent harm resulted, and no one cared about this until it became a weapon to use against Hillary.

I think that if the people here making this argument are honest, the appeal of prosecuting all 3 has a lot more to do with inflicting pain on political enemies than any good-faith belief that these SOSs were engaged in malfeasance. And that's really not a good path to start going down.
posted by msalt at 2:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Jason Leopold, the reporter who initially sued for access to Clinton's public record emails: Why You Actually Should Care About Hillary Clinton's Damn Emails
posted by dialetheia at 2:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


So, in the coming weeks after today, according to 538's demographic models, it looks like there's going to be a long string of states where the demographics favor Sanders -- Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, with only Arizona a better one for Clinton. But after that, there's a period of states with more Clinton-friendly demographics -- New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, with only Rhode Island a better one for Sanders. Interesting.
posted by kyrademon at 2:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


To continue the wild baseless pipe dream hypothetical speculation of brokered conventions, would would the DNC try to push happens if HRC wins the primary race and then somehow got indicted during the convention? It's an impossible scenario, but not nil, and it's fun to imagine because the Democratic race has only two contenders this year.

Not sure if they would give the delegates to Bernie. Would alienate everyone who voted against him, too radical a move.

O'Malley and Webb are out. Too uninspiring, dropped out too soon to be considered.

The usual unity figures mentioned are Kerry and Biden. But is there anyone else at all? It seems so establishment and Republican to dip into yesteryear's defeated candidates as a compromise candidate.

Anyway, hypothetical brokered candidates are fascinating in that it sort of reveals who the party, or at least the party establishment, trusts as a "fallback president." The RNC rumors about Romney, Ryan, Condi, and Jeb(!) are likewise interesting.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:36 PM on March 15, 2016


If they didn't give the delegates to Bernie, they'd alienate everyone who voted for him. Pick your poison.
posted by Lyme Drop at 2:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


So, in the coming weeks after today, according to 538's demographic models, it looks like there's going to be a long string of states where the demographics favor Sanders -- Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, with only Arizona a better one for Clinton. But after that, there's a period of states with more Clinton-friendly demographics -- New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Indiana, with only Rhode Island a better one for Sanders. Interesting.

The biggest one to watch is California on June 7 with 548 delegate votes, which I suspect will be a lot closer than initial polls are predicting.
posted by zarq at 2:42 PM on March 15, 2016


The indictment stuff is a total red herring. The more concerning issue about the FBI investigation is its potential impact on how voters evaluate her honesty/trustworthiness, which is easily her biggest issue in most polls. Anyway, I am just tired of seeing people represent concern over FOIA and public records law evasion as being politically motivated. I believe that full reporter access to FOIA-able documents is really important to a functioning press. I understand other people have different priorities, but that doesn't make it ridiculous to be concerned about the email server, much less its impact on her electability (especially now that the guy who set it up has been granted immunity in exchange for testimony, and since her closest aides are going to be testifying about it over the course of this year).
posted by dialetheia at 2:43 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I can't believe this is actually going to drag on until June. We're all going to be totally burnt out before the campaigning for the actual election even begins!

I'm thinking I might tune it all out for a while.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


If it comes down to it, is there anybody around left who knows how to campaign for President in California? They've been using our state as nothing more than an ATM for national campaigns for so long.
posted by zachlipton at 2:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Make MetaFilter Great Again

Vote #1 quidnunc kid!
posted by orrnyereg at 2:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Please fix our surging wealth inequality and housing crisis.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


> If it comes down to it, is there anybody around left who knows how to campaign for President in California? They've been using our state as nothing more than an ATM for national campaigns for so long.
posted by zachlipton at 2:45 PM on March 15 [+] [!]


According to this documentary, the result of the 2008 Presidential election (you know, the one between Clinton/Lieberman and Elliot/Frost) hinged on California.

maybe the future is in fact more futuristic than predicted...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:51 PM on March 15, 2016


Anyway, hypothetical brokered candidates are fascinating in that it sort of reveals who the party, or at least the party establishment, trusts as a "fallback president."

As well as legal problems, there's other reasons e.g. campaign incident, currently not-public scandal, or ill health (or worse) for why any of Bernie (74), Donald (69) or Hillary (68) may not be a candidate, or even active in politics, come the election in two-thirds of a years time.

A couple of my Democratic Party activist friends in Iowa keep saying that there is support for Amy Klobuchar to be brought in as a candidate if needs be. No idea how feasible, or how much support, there actually is.
posted by Wordshore at 2:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]




Am I the only one for whom Sanders' age is an issue? It's not nearly enough of an issue for not voting for him enthusiastically in the general if it came to that, but 74 is damn old to run for a first term. It's damn old to run for a second term...
posted by Justinian at 2:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Don't forget the also crazy-but-also-not-nil chance of Cruz being excluded because of the Canadian birth thing.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:55 PM on March 15, 2016


But is there anyone else at all?

We'll fight celebrity with celebrity by nominating Tom Hanks. He'll end his rallies by pretending to spray snot out of his nose with silly string.
posted by FJT at 2:55 PM on March 15, 2016


Am I the only won for whom Sanders' age is an issue?

I've heard it before, so you're definitely not the only one, but he's only 6 years older than Clinton and 5 years older than Trump.
posted by dialetheia at 2:56 PM on March 15, 2016


> We'll fight celebrity with celebrity by...

George. Clooney.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 2:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


honestly the age of all the front runners is a concern to me but, as with so much about this election, i have to compare them to each other and not the imaginary candidates that i wish were up there fighting the good fight...
posted by nadawi at 2:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


But is there anyone else at all?

Oprah
posted by melissasaurus at 2:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Nelson Mandela became president of South Africa at age 76.
posted by theraflu at 2:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I've heard it before, so you're definitely not the only one, but he's only 6 years older than Clinton and 5 years older than Trump.

Is this election the Boomers Strike Back after A New [Gen-X] Hope, or what?
posted by Apocryphon at 2:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I think the age thing is going to make the VP selection particularly important. Sarah Palin might not have been as much of a problem for John McCain if it hadn't been for people doing the math and realizing that there was a real chance he'd have an incapacitating medical issue. Whoever gets the nomination is going to have to pick a VP who people will think of as a legitimate potential president, not just checking off a bunch of electoral boxes.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oprah

Oh god, to be honest that is probably the President this country deserves.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh god, to be honest that is probably the President this country deserves.
? so it's NOT Trump?
posted by Max Power at 3:02 PM on March 15, 2016


I think the age thing is going to make the VP selection particularly important. Sarah Palin might not have been as much of a problem for John McCain if it hadn't been for people doing the math and realizing that there was a real chance he'd have an incapacitating medical issue.

I'm not sure about that. I remember people, myself included, just being repulsed by her. She seemed to embody everything stupid and obnoxious and nasty about Republicans, like she was created in some lab by liberals to mock conservatives but then they embraced her.
posted by Sangermaine at 3:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I've heard it before, so you're definitely not the only one, but he's only 6 years older than Clinton and 5 years older than Trump.

And I wish they were younger, too. Well not Trump 'cause screw that guy. But I don't have a choice between a 74 year old and a 60 year old...
posted by Justinian at 3:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I remember people, myself included, just being repulsed by her.
Well, I mean, me too, but I'm not ever going to vote for a Republican no matter what. I definitely ran into some people who might have rolled their eyes and thought that it was just typical pandering to a demographic, except that it occurred to them that she could actually be president.

I don't think it matters for Trump, because Trump is a cult of personality, and his followers don't see him as an old man anyway. But it would matter for Bernie or Hillary.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:06 PM on March 15, 2016


If elected, Bernie Sanders would be the oldest U.S. president ever.

So would Donald Trump.

Hillary Clinton would be the same age as Ronald Reagan was when he took office. And he's the current oldest-president-of-all-time.

Hopefully all three will pick good VP's, but I don't think this is cause for concern. If they can survive the campaign, they can survive being in office.
posted by zarq at 3:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


FWIW, the life expectancy of a 74 year old man is 10 years, so there's a decent chance of not making it through one term and a moderate chance of not making it through two. The life expectancy of a 69 year old woman is 16 years. Just to be morbid.
posted by Justinian at 3:08 PM on March 15, 2016


And I wish they were younger, too

Martin O'Malley is 53 years young.
posted by FJT at 3:10 PM on March 15, 2016


On the flip side, it also demonstrates how far medical science has advanced since 1980.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Ugh: Trump has received nearly $2 billion in free media coverage this year

FWIW, the life expectancy ...

Luckily, reasoning from the population back to the individual is really misleading. There is substantial variability around that mean.
posted by dialetheia at 3:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


FWIW, the life expectancy of a 74 year old man is 10 years, so there's a decent chance of not making it through one term and a moderate chance of not making it through two. The life expectancy of a 69 year old woman is 16 years. Just to be morbid.

Life expectancy is a mean. Presidents have the best medical care in the world while they're in office. Their chances of thriving are higher than the rest of the population.
posted by zarq at 3:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh, that's true. I just think being President is such a high stress, tiring job that I'd prefer someone in late middle age to someone elderly. I suppose 70 is the new 50.
posted by Justinian at 3:14 PM on March 15, 2016


I can't wait to see the before-and-after pictures of Sanders after eight years in office.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:17 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Sanders wins some battles but continues to lose the war as Clinton pads her lead by a decent number of net delegates. I suspect her lead will be at least 250 by the end of the day... So if she loses by a little in some states but wins by a lot in others, she still gets most of the delegates.

At the moment, with 0% of the votes counted in five states (FL, IL, MO, NC, OH), Hillary has won 71 delegates and Bernie 4.
posted by LeLiLo at 3:17 PM on March 15, 2016


I'm not sure about that. I remember people, myself included, just being repulsed by her. She seemed to embody everything stupid and obnoxious and nasty about Republicans, like she was created in some lab by liberals to mock conservatives but then they embraced her.

In the month before the 2008 I was doing an American adventure thing, traveling on a 7,000 mile loop of Amtrak trains. Conversation about politics was usually polite, even between people of all different political persuasions. I've been at train dinner tables where Obama and McCain supporters had civil and respectful conversations, as we approached the election.

Unless one specific name came up. Yep. One of several incidents.
posted by Wordshore at 3:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


i wonder if because of reagan there might be some digging in to the candidates families to see if dementia has been an issue.
posted by nadawi at 3:19 PM on March 15, 2016


Trump/Caligula 2016
posted by zarq at 3:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


The thing with Palin was it took a little while for people to realize how under qualified she was. Her resume was short but pretty accomplished for what it was, and she could deliver a great speech when it was written for her. But then the interviews and other off the cuff moments made people realize she did not have the knowledge or temperament for national politics.

Trump is similar to her in many ways, for instance being totally unfit for national politics, but he can handle softball interviews without completely destroying himself at least. He can handle the media, if not the politics.
posted by Drinky Die at 3:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




i wonder if because of reagan there might be some digging in to the candidates families to see if dementia has been an issue.

Donald Trump's father had Alzheimer's. On the other hand he lived to be 94.
posted by mmoncur at 3:26 PM on March 15, 2016


Make the Apocalypse Weird Again — vote Tzeentch/Slaanesh 2016.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I think that Trump would (will? shudder) pick a fairly nondescript person as his VP candidate; that is, someone who wouldn't upstage him at all. But that's just my opinion.
posted by dhens at 3:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Matt Taibbi: How the New York Times sandbagged Bernie Sanders

I was totally here to link that dialetheia. Unreal.
posted by Trochanter at 3:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


The new version, though, reads very differently. In it, Sanders is described as a "small-ball" legislator whose career has been spent doing unimportant little things. The focus of the piece is now less on the what of his legislative victories than on the where: the margins.

Down with Sanders and his effective pragmatic incrementalism! Vote Hillary, because Sanders only has crazy big ideas he can't pass!
posted by Drinky Die at 3:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Donald Trump's father had Alzheimer's. On the other hand he lived to be 94.

As an minor aside, it's pretty amazing that John McCain's mother is still alive at 102. She was born in 1912, another year of much conflict for the Republicans.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Matt Taibbi: How the New York Times sandbagged Bernie Sanders

And I wasn't quite frustrated enough with this primary. Thank you.
posted by Gaz Errant at 3:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


After or before?
posted by ian1977 at 3:31 PM on March 15, 2016




Matt Taibbi: How the New York Times sandbagged Bernie Sanders

everytime i think they've finally perfected the art of doublespeak, minitrue comes out with a new edition of a newspeak. big brother would be so proud.
posted by Glibpaxman at 3:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trump/Wasp Nest Full of Dead Spiders '16
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [26 favorites]


Wow. According to MSNBC, 58% of all GOP voters today feel "betrayed by Republican politicians." I shouldn't be surprised - that has been one of the most persistent messages coming from the Tea Party - but I'm surprised it's such a strong majority of GOP voters. Only 38% don't feel betrayed.
posted by dialetheia at 3:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


The grossest part of that NYT story is that they substantially changed the article after a lot of people - including the Sanders campaign - had shared the article. It's one thing to give mostly unfavorable coverage, but it's another thing entirely to substantially edit the piece after the fact.
posted by dialetheia at 3:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


I wonder what the percentage would be for Democrats?
posted by benito.strauss at 3:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Well I don't feel betrayed by Republicans, I just think they are assholes.
posted by Drinky Die at 3:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]




still alive at 102. She was born in 1912

Now I'm not great at math, but
posted by beerperson at 3:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


." I shouldn't be surprised - that has been one of the most persistent messages coming from the Tea Party - but I'm surprised it's such a strong majority of GOP voters. Only 38% don't feel betrayed.

I think there are a lot of people voting for Trump who aren't racist or Make America Great people, they're just super low information, consider themselves GOP or at least not Democrat, and then go vote and think Trump seems ok. I think they go and vote, and go home and make dinner and forget all about it, but they think politicians are "all the same" and maybe this other guy would be ok, but anyway it's this far away politics thing so, shrug, I know some people who like that Trump.

I watched some footage of the Nevada caucus and it had all these people sitting and discussing at the table, and then almost all checking Trump. I doubt the discussion was "trade deals" or even "yeah, a wall sounds great." It was like someone saying they don't like all those politicians in Washington but maybe the Trump guy is different.

I grew up inside the Beltway and have spent my whole life in the NE corridor so this perspective is crazy alien to me, but I think it's out there.
posted by zutalors! at 3:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]




Wow. According to MSNBC, 58% of all GOP voters today feel "betrayed by Republican politicians."

i feel like this is the reverse no true scotsman - they feel betrayed by the republicans which is why they're supporting this specific republican in offices from county clerk to president because their candidate is going to get all those other republicans to start actin right! or whatever.
posted by nadawi at 3:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


The thing with Palin was it took a little while for people to realize how under qualified she was.

Daily Show clip - John McCain Chooses a Running Mate; August 29 2008

So, like, 8 hours, then?
posted by soundguy99 at 3:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]




Here's a one to one of the changes to the Sandbagged article.

The headline change is just so frickin blatant.
posted by Gaz Errant at 3:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


NYT Upshot: The Geography of Trumpism

Trump counties include places that have voted for both Republicans and Democrats, and the strongest predictors of Trump support include how a county responded to two very different third-party candidates: Trump territory showed stronger support for the segregationist George Wallace in the 1968 election than the rest of the country, and substantially weaker support for the liberal-leaning former Republican John B. Anderson in 1980.

Also:

Despite evidence that some individual Trump voters are driven by racial hostility, this analysis didn’t show a particularly powerful relationship between the racial breakdown of a county and its likelihood of voting for Trump. There are Trump-supporting counties with both very high and very low proportions of African-Americans, for example.

One of the strongest predictors of Trump support is the proportion of the population that is native-born. Relatively few people in the places where Trump is strong are immigrants — and, as their answers on their ancestry reveal, they very much wear Americanness on their sleeve.

posted by FJT at 3:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


> I think there are a lot of people voting for Trump who aren't racist or Make America Great people, they're just super low information, consider themselves GOP or at least not Democrat, and then go vote and think Trump seems ok.

Millions of people put orders of magnitude more thought into choosing their fantasy football teams than their elected representatives and then wonder why shit is so fucked up.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


MSNBC reporting that a precinct in Illinois is out of ballots, and trying to get a court order to stay open.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 3:51 PM on March 15, 2016


So, Taibbi says that cutting the last sentence from the McCain quote wasn't a big deal, but I disagree. That last sentence -- "It was the first real reform of the V.A. ever." -- gives a measure of what being "very effective" means. It establishes that Sanders has sometimes done large and unprecedented things. Cutting that sentence substantially weakens McCain's praise for Sanders.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 3:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


I grew up inside the Beltway and have spent my whole life in the NE corridor so this perspective is crazy alien to me, but I think it's out there.

No offense, but I live in an area with a lot of Trump and Cruz voters and I think they are way less "low information" than you think. They just have bad information. People have idiosyncratic reasons, and the source of their information is frequently looney-tunes right-wing propaganda from facebook and weird forums, but most do seem to have have more complex reasons than "eh, whatever, I just hate politics" to vote for Trump. There really is a sense of anger and betrayal toward the Republican party (that + racism are how the Tea Party got so big), and a lot of it does revolve around the failure to provide a functioning economy for working people (plus racism, of course). Whether people blame taxes or trade deals or immigration or what for that varies a lot, but it's not just pure ignorance with no reasoning - it's reasoning from false premises.
posted by dialetheia at 3:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


Are poll workers allowed to quote candidates' slogans? The volunteer at my polling place here in Florida scanned my driver license and asked "Are you ready to make America great again?" I laughed it off and replied "Sure, but not like that," and he said "Aw, sure you are!" We're a closed primary state. I pulled a Democrat ballot.
posted by Servo5678 at 3:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think there are a lot of people voting for Trump who aren't racist or Make America Great people, they're just super low information, consider themselves GOP or at least not Democrat, and then go vote and think Trump seems ok.

I live in Houston, where we just failed to pass the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance last Fall mostly because conservatives successfully painted it as an ordinance that would allow creepy men to enter bathrooms with your little daughter. In reality it made it against the law to discriminate on the basis of sex, gender, race, and like 15 other things. I got drunk and posted upset things on Facebook that night, and proceeded to run into like 3 people the next day who saw that and asked why I was so upset about the 'bathroom bill'. It was a real eye opener for me about how many people are really low information...
posted by DynamiteToast at 3:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I think "Sí, se puede" is the best possible response to a pollworker asking you a question like that
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [31 favorites]


You know, you could charitably interpret those edits to paint Bernie as a patient legislator who's been getting things done and building bridges behind the scenes for 25 years, if only it weren't for those two flagrant paragraphs. It's like they just had to make sure nobody got the wrong idea, that they had to assure whoever was reading that they're still bought and sold for Hillary all the way.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 3:56 PM on March 15, 2016


Because in the conservative belief system, fast food jobs are the first steps for kids into the real world of Self-Sufficient Hard Work.

they also seem to join many of the other minimum wage jobs in being work that slaves used to do
posted by pyramid termite at 3:57 PM on March 15, 2016


Beware the ides of Marco.

(Maybe that should be the "ideas of Marco"?)
posted by GrammarMoses at 3:57 PM on March 15, 2016


Are poll workers allowed to quote candidates' slogans? The volunteer at my polling place here in Florida scanned my driver license and asked "Are you ready to make America great again?"

Sure, but not like that.

If I were you, I'd call the local election commission.
posted by box at 3:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


No offense, but I live in an area with a lot of Trump and Cruz voters and I think they are way less "low information" than you think. They just have bad information.

I agree. At this stage in the internet and 24 hour media era, it's rare to be a low information era, but increasingly common to have bad information. That's a much worse problem for people still interested in pedestrian things like facts and reality, because it's pretty easy to provide information to people who don't have it, but maddening to try to correct falsehoods once they've taken root.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 3:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Life expectancy is a mean. Presidents have the best medical care in the world while they're in office. Their chances of thriving are higher than the rest of the population.

I think once you weigh that against the stress of the job it comes out in the wash, but that's just me. There's also the question of how much medical care can do against 70 years of health choices.

That said, I have 0 concerns about the ages of the candidates.
posted by phearlez at 3:59 PM on March 15, 2016


Here's a one to one of the changes to the Sandbagged article.

Interesting. They truncated McCain's quote, too, to remove his inaccurate statement that Sanders' had helped create the first reform of the Veteran's Administration. I remember shaking my head at that little bit of ahistorical hyperbole when I saw it in the original article. Anyone who knows anything about the VA's history knows that it has undergone quite a few changes and shakeups over the decades, most spurred by scandal, corruption, protests and investigative commissions.
posted by zarq at 4:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


The new version, though, reads very differently. In it, Sanders is described as a "small-ball" legislator whose career has been spent doing unimportant little things. The focus of the piece is now less on the what of his legislative victories than on the where: the margins.

the problem is that the story told by gatekeepers like the nytimes and the story told right in front of your face are diverging more and more strongly, because the material and social conditions of the apparatchiks that work their are diverging more and more strongly from everyone else.

the Clintons are just blatantly corrupt. but this is ++ungood until a gatekeeper can announce it. until then, you can point to any piece of evidence and your audience will say (to themselves): "well, if they were really crooks why hasn't the Times told me this?"

but that's the ultimate problem with centrists like Sanders; there's little space for being an honest politician the divisions in society are becoming so radical.
posted by ennui.bz at 4:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Age-wise, I feel like if Candidates can survive the campaign trail, which by all accounts is grueling, they are in sufficiently good health to be president.
posted by zug at 4:01 PM on March 15, 2016


After Judith Miller, I'm astounded the New York Times has the balls to continue publishing, much less people considering it more credible than the old Weekly World News...
posted by mikelieman at 4:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


The VA's troubled history. Timeline was published in 2014, right in the middle of one of the most recent scandals.
posted by zarq at 4:02 PM on March 15, 2016


Also, the NYT is just as guilty in not performing due diligence in vetting the fraudulent Bush Administration claims offered to obtain the AUMF-Iraq as Hillary Clinton, and shares the blood on their hands.
posted by mikelieman at 4:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


They say that if you're explaining you're losing, which is kind of a problem if you want to promote an idea more complicated than, say, "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN." As usual, The Simpsons did it:

In Bart's class, the two presidential candidates, Martin and Bart, hold a debate. Martin cites that the classroom has a level of 1.74 parts per million of asbestos. However, the class sides with Bart, as he demands more asbestos. At home, Homer reads Barts class newspaper and is impressed with his popularity. He encourages Bart to continue taking the election seriously and to go after Martin and win. A montage ensues, showing Bart leading rallies and posting pro-Bart signs and anti-Martin signs; all while a nervous Martin looks on in despair.
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


MSNBC in Ohio saying that normally they see a 2-1 Republican vote, today it seems to be 3-1, with Democrats posting protest votes in favor of Governor Kasich.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:05 PM on March 15, 2016


I hope they're all Hillary's.
posted by Trochanter at 4:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Millions of people put orders of magnitude more thought into choosing their fantasy football teams than their elected representatives and then wonder why shit is so fucked up.

And to cap it off, all my teams STILL suck.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


centrists like Sanders

He's not a centrist. See the left-most blue dot on this chart? Hover over it.
posted by zarq at 4:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


CNN showing exit polls that say a majority of Florida voters don't support deporting illegal immigrants and their talking heads are saying people are still voting not on issues but just emotion, because they want a revolution.

Personally I find it hard to reconcile primary voters on both sides wanting a revolution when Obama has an approval rating about as high as Reagan's.
posted by zutalors! at 4:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Bernie is gray. The dot, I mean. He is leftmost.

The leftmost blue is ironically named Blumenthal.
posted by FJT at 4:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Millions of people put orders of magnitude more thought into choosing their fantasy football teams than their elected representatives and then wonder why shit is so fucked up.

And to cap it off, all my teams STILL suck.


And the guy who forgot to show up for the draft and had his team autoselected makes it to the playoffs? Yeah, I'll make AMERICA GREAT AGAIN damnit!
posted by Glibpaxman at 4:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Bernie is gray. The dot, I mean. He is leftmost.

Ah, thanks. I'm colorblind.
posted by zarq at 4:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Make the Apocalypse Weird Again — vote Tzeentch/Slaanesh 2016.

Ungh. Of course Tzeentch would go for the younger running mate with a nice racks. Nurgle should have got the nod - that dude is willing to get his hands really, really dirty.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 4:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Well, the thing about fantasy football is that the players get far more power in getting to draft their teams. In American politics unless you're particularly civically engaged, usually the ballots are set on auto-draft.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hey everyone, it's Ruth Bader Ginsburg's birthday today! Not everything is terrible!
posted by triggerfinger at 4:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Personally I find it hard to reconcile primary voters on both sides wanting a revolution when Obama has an approval rating about as high as Reagan's.

I think, on the left at least, it's like "can you imagine how much more Obama could have accomplished if we didn't have a corrupt campaign finance system?"
posted by melissasaurus at 4:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


At this stage in the internet and 24 hour media era, it's rare to be a low information era, but increasingly common to have bad information.
I don't know. I've said this before, but I've come across a number of young women who tell me that they don't think they should vote because they don't have enough time to really research the candidates, and they think it's irresponsible to vote if you're not really informed. They tend to be working-class and really overextended. There was a woman who lived in my apartment complex, for instance, who was in her early 20s and who had a toddler and was working and going to school part-time. They're low-information non-voters, not low-information voters, and I suspect they have more information than they think they do, but they're definitely not people who have a lot of time to devote to cable news or the internet.

But yeah, there are definitely a lot of bad information voters. There are also a lot of people who just have really different priorities than me. I may think it's dumb as fuck that opposition to gun control is your number one issue, but for some people it is. They probably think I'm dumb as fuck for not realizing how important gun rights are.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


With 12% (Republican) and 16% (Dem) in Florida (which does not close until 8pm Eastern in the panhandle, Florida looks to be leaning for Trump and Clinton.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:17 PM on March 15, 2016


Early returns coming in from Florida. No surprises so far.
posted by kyrademon at 4:18 PM on March 15, 2016


It would be a major, major upset at this point if Florida didn't go for Trump and Clinton. The interesting stuff is going to happen in Illinois, Ohio, and Missouri.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:19 PM on March 15, 2016



Bernie is gray. The dot, I mean. He is leftmost.


Gillibrand is to the left of Warren. Can she run in 2020? She's young.
posted by zutalors! at 4:20 PM on March 15, 2016


Polls close in North Carolina and Ohio in less than ten minutes. Let the commenting begin!

posted by mmoncur (656 comments total) [remove from activity] [remove from favorites] 39 users marked this as a favorite [!]

Oh.
Hears distant sounds of sobbing MetaFilter moderators.
posted by Wordshore at 4:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


> With 12% (Republican) and 16% (Dem) in Florida

Where are you getting those numbers? Both WaPo and NYT are saying <2% reporting currently. Missing decimal point?
posted by Westringia F. at 4:21 PM on March 15, 2016


Among Cuyahoga Co. potential early voters, 15.6% (!) of Dems requested GOP ballots, likely to vote Kasich.

Trump is claiming
that there are ballots without his name in Florida. If true, the shit is going to hit the fan in very amusing ways.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:22 PM on March 15, 2016


Mods, when this is all over, if you're ever up in my neck of the woods, I'll buy you a beer.

Unless Trump is president, in which case I'll offer you shelter, glass trading-beads, and whatever kerosene and ammo I can spare.
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:23 PM on March 15, 2016 [28 favorites]


Where are you getting those numbers? Both WaPo and NYT are saying <2>

NBC.

posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:23 PM on March 15, 2016


There are also a lot of people who just have really different priorities than me. I may think it's dumb as fuck that opposition to gun control is your number one issue, but for some people it is. They probably think I'm dumb as fuck for not realizing how important gun rights are.

Yeah, that's a good point. We can debate how similar Clinton and Sanders are on the issues, but I think the way they campaign communicates very different priorities regardless.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


We seriously need to set up a beer fund for the mods. Maybe tequila. Can we have some sort of "thank you and congratulations for surviving this" event for the mods when the election is over?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


> Trump is claiming that there are ballots without his name in Florida.

Well, none of the dem tickets have his name....
posted by Westringia F. at 4:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Gillibrand is to the left of Warren. Can she run in 2020? She's young.

Yep. She turns 50 this December.

She's one of my Senators, and replaced Clinton when she was made Secretary of State. Has a great record on many issues. Aggressively pro-choice. Gets an F from the NRA. Was pro-gay marriage. Etc., etc. I'd love to see her step up to the plate... and I am hoping that if Clinton or Sanders are elected they'll create a cabinet position for her.
posted by zarq at 4:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


What *are* people's favorite sites for quickly updated numbers? Lately I've been using the Guardian, which is pretty good although their little animations kind of annoy me.
posted by uosuaq at 4:27 PM on March 15, 2016


Sorry I'm late did I miss anything fun?
posted by vrakatar at 4:28 PM on March 15, 2016


How can NBC results come in so much faster than NY Times?
posted by ian1977 at 4:28 PM on March 15, 2016


Looks like a pretty big win for Clinton in Florida, but that's not necessarily indicative. If she didn't get a pretty big win there it would have been a problem for her.
posted by Justinian at 4:29 PM on March 15, 2016


Senator Gillibrand spent the day advocating for Puerto Rico with Lin-Manuel Miranda. She's okay with me.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Sorry I'm late did I miss anything fun?

There was this orange guy from the tv. You'll never guess what happened next!
posted by Wordshore at 4:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


He's not a centrist. See the left-most blue dot on this chart? Hover over it.

There's a senator named 'Whitehouse'? Holy Ohio. Someone fast track him to at least a VP spot, stat! As someone asked, "How do you not vote for a guy who has govern right in his name"
posted by Apocryphon at 4:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


She's one of my Senators, and replaced Clinton when she was made Secretary of State.

Yeah, she's my Senator too and I vote for her, but I feel like Warren gets all this attention for being a lefty but both NY Senators are further left.

Haven't looked at which votes though of course.

hoping that if Clinton or Sanders are elected they'll create a cabinet position for her


Love this idea! I'm sure Clinton would, since Gillbrand took her Senate seat.
posted by zutalors! at 4:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


uosuaq: I like the NYT live results tracker, and you can click through to get detailed info on each state.
posted by adrianhon at 4:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


She's one of my Senators, and replaced Clinton when she was made Secretary of State.

Mine too. She's a little too establishment for my tastes, which isn't a showstopper, it's part and parcel with her coming up in the 80's and 90's. I would like Gillibrand to gain power in the Senate another cycle or two. The key cabinet posts are Liz Warren to treasury and Alan Grayson to defense..
posted by mikelieman at 4:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


NBC Ohio: Too early to call (Kasich leading), too early to call (Clinton leading)
North Carolina: Too close to call (Trump leading Cruz), Too early to call (Clinton leading)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:30 PM on March 15, 2016


FWIW, cortex drinks scotch.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


What's with the love for Alan Grayson I keep seeing? Dude is by all accounts a giant asshole and is literally a hedge fund manager.
posted by Justinian at 4:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


He's pugnacious and has the class traitor thing going for him so he's kinda like reverse-Trump.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Of the Dems who picked up Republican ballots today in Ohio, only a bit over half seem to have voted for Kasich. Many of them voted for Donald Trump. (why?)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:34 PM on March 15, 2016


Holy shit, Rubio is getting clobbered in his home state.
posted by Talez at 4:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Of the Dems who picked up Republican ballots today in Ohio, only a bit over half seem to have voted for Kasich. Many of them voted for Donald Trump. (why?)

Some people just want to watch the world burn.
posted by Sangermaine at 4:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I guess even Clinton supporters want to get a piece of that chaos election fun.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:36 PM on March 15, 2016


He should quit! Rubio should quit. He's really young, he should quit, read about climate change and women's rights and try again in a few years.
posted by zutalors! at 4:37 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Come on, Rubio is heading for another glorious second place victory.
posted by Justinian at 4:37 PM on March 15, 2016


If Rubio drops out, what happens to the 163 delegates he's picked up so far?
posted by peeedro at 4:37 PM on March 15, 2016


> How can NBC results come in so much faster than NY Times?

They're not. Looking at the numbers from NBC, WaPo, & NYT, someone -- and I think it's NBC -- is mistaken in their percentages-reporting.

Both WaPo and NBC have vote totals around ~1.1 M ballots counted right now in Fla, per party -- the vote totals are coming in at the same rate. But NBC is saying that's ~50% reporting while WaPo is saying ~15%.
posted by Westringia F. at 4:37 PM on March 15, 2016


Yeah, even if the stuff being alleged about Grayson is false (which I kind of doubt), he's said too many incendiary things to get elected to any office higher than the one he's got, in my opinion.
posted by uosuaq at 4:37 PM on March 15, 2016


As several people have pointed out, Trump's strongest supporters are registered Democrats who usually vote for Republicans. It's not at all surprising that he's pulling Democratic support in open-primary states.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Rubio drops out I think his delegates can go anywhere they want, until convention day.
posted by vrakatar at 4:38 PM on March 15, 2016


If Rubio drops out, what happens to the 163 delegates he's picked up so far?

They have to burned on the ceremonial pyre at the convention along with Rubio.
posted by Sangermaine at 4:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Of the Dems who picked up Republican ballots today in Ohio, only a bit over half seem to have voted for Kasich. Many of them voted for Donald Trump. (why?)

Some think a Trump candidate will be easier for the Democrats to beat. But some - a few Democratic acquaintances amongst them - are preferring Donald to Hillary or Bernie. Their logic is ... interesting. But it's an alarm that, come next November, I would not discount Donald winning the election.
posted by Wordshore at 4:38 PM on March 15, 2016


If Rubio drops out, what happens to the 163 delegates he's picked up so far?

They're free to vote for whomever, although usually the candidate suggests an alternative.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:39 PM on March 15, 2016


Of the Dems who picked up Republican ballots today in Ohio, only a bit over half seem to have voted for Kasich. Many of them voted for Donald Trump. (why?)

I would guess it's a combination of registered Democrats who see Trump as standing up for the little guy (or are racist, or both) and actual liberals who want to see the Republican party get stuck with the monster they created. I can't honestly say I don't understand that feeling.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 4:39 PM on March 15, 2016


Open primaries should have a space for you to write "this is a joke vote" or "this is a strategy vote" like on Survivor.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


For all people knocked him for sounding like a robot in the debates, Rubio's humanity really shone through once he started getting clobbered and fought back, in his flailing, ineffectual way. I felt for the guy. I hope he never holds a significant political office again barring a dramatic reversal of his terrible positions, but perhaps the thing that kept him from being a serious contender was that he just wasn't dead enough inside.

Does Bush get the Sword of Chang back now?
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Donivaldus Octavius has defeated Marcus Antonius Rubicon in Florida. Someone better keep him away from sharp objects for the next few days.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 4:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Or euro style, you vote party not person, vast coalitions are built.
posted by vrakatar at 4:42 PM on March 15, 2016


Of the Dems who picked up Republican ballots today in Ohio, only a bit over half seem to have voted for Kasich. Many of them voted for Donald Trump. (why?)

Optimists may quite reasonably think (although who the hell knows chaos rules nothing matters) that in a Trump vs Whoever general, Trump would be easily beaten. Also, yeah, maybe they just want to burn it all (or just the GOP) down.

He should quit! Rubio should quit.

He's just today been quoted as saying he won't, which seems crazy on the face of it, with no path whatsoever to the nomination, but has led many to think the contested convention is being seriously discussed and planned for among the NotTrump GOP. Buckle up!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


For all people knocked him for sounding like a robot in the debates, Rubio's humanity really shone through once he started getting clobbered and fought back, in his flailing, ineffectual way. I felt for the guy. I hope he never holds a significant political office again barring a dramatic reversal of his terrible positions, but perhaps the thing that kept him from being a serious contender was that he just wasn't dead enough inside.

Isn't this pretty much applicable to Jeb as well? Maybe it's a Florida thing.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I know he said he won't.... but he should. And I'm still counting on him to not support Trump.

Look I'm not a Republican and can't support Rubio for any reason...but the fact that both sides (not you Stavros just generally) seem to want to beat up on him as "loser" is just part of the Trump narrative to me.
posted by zutalors! at 4:45 PM on March 15, 2016


Wow, if the NYT is right Clinton is annihilating Sanders in Ohio.
posted by Sangermaine at 4:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I had some empathy for Jeb too, but not being dead enough inside wasn't his problem.
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:45 PM on March 15, 2016


Trump has been picking up a surprisingly high number of registered Democrats from the beginning. Don't write them off as people who are voting for him because they think he'll lose. Frankly, this is the thing that worries me the most about the possibility of his becoming the nominee. He has some kind of bizarre crossover appeal.
posted by kyrademon at 4:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]



Wow, if the NYT is right Clinton is annihilating Sanders in Ohio.


I think it's closer, less than 1% reporting.
posted by zutalors! at 4:46 PM on March 15, 2016


if the NYT is right

They're not. We were discussing how the NYT is less credible than the old Weekly World News just a little earlier.
posted by mikelieman at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


seem to want to beat up on him as "loser" is just part of the Trump narrative to me.

it's just that he's losing so much.
posted by Drinky Die at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2016


> "Wow, if the NYT is right Clinton is annihilating Sanders in Ohio."

That's with less than 1% of the vote counted. It's probably coming from a few precincts. I'd be shocked if it stayed at those numbers.
posted by kyrademon at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2016


I know he said he won't.... but he should. And I'm still counting on him to not support Trump.

Maybe Trump will bribe him with being Secretary of the Interior for Latino Affairs like he did similarly with Carson.
posted by Talez at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2016


Now, they could get lucky and be right, but really, they're just printing what the editorial board tells them to.
posted by mikelieman at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2016


Illinois polls will be open an extra 90 minutes in many parts of the state.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2016


They're not. We were discussing how the NYT is less credible than the old Weekly World News just a little earlier.

I sincerely miss WWW. I wish I could still read it while waiting in line at the grocery store. Did the saga of Bat Boy ever get an end?
posted by Sangermaine at 4:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


NYT gets their results from AP.
posted by FJT at 4:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Did the saga of Bat Boy ever get an end?

He ran for the Republican nomination as the evangelical candidate!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


> "Now, they could get lucky and be right, but really, they're just printing what the editorial board tells them to."

No, these are the actual numbers, as they come in. It's just early returns from a few precincts, so it doesn't mean much.

Be fair.
posted by kyrademon at 4:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


seem to want to beat up on him as "loser" is just part of the Trump narrative to me.

it's just that he's losing so much.


Right but he's losing to Trump Tactics. Rubio has few principles, but he does seem to have some and like he said, it seems like in this race humility is a weakness and braggadocio a virtue, which is not how public service is supposed to be.
posted by zutalors! at 4:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


...and lost.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:50 PM on March 15, 2016


Did the saga of Bat Boy ever get an end?

And that Bat Boy grew up to be...Ted Cruz.

I'm prize bull octorok...good day!
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


dammit stav
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Bat Boy: The Musical
posted by mikelieman at 4:51 PM on March 15, 2016


dammit stav

Heh. Fast mover, this thread.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]



Hold Me, Bat Boy
( Original Cast Recording )
posted by mikelieman at 4:54 PM on March 15, 2016




seem to want to beat up on him as "loser" is just part of the Trump narrative to me.

it's just that he's losing so much.

Right but he's losing to Trump Tactics. Rubio has few principles, but he does seem to have some and like he said, it seems like in this race humility is a weakness and braggadocio a virtue, which is not how public service is supposed to be.
posted by zutalors! at 4:50 PM on March 15 [+] [!]


...and lost.


Yes, let's beat up the LOSERS, it'll be BYOOTIFUL. If only they could all be like Trump, they would be winners. #trump #votewinners
posted by zutalors! at 4:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


...and lost.

Yeah, that was meant to be an amusing coda to my Cruz-as-Batboy joke. Like I said, fast mover.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:58 PM on March 15, 2016


New Bat Boy Film!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:58 PM on March 15, 2016


Looks like Kasich will likely take Ohio, which is the scenario many were predicting would likely prevent Trump from being able to get an outright majority by the convention.
posted by thefoxgod at 4:58 PM on March 15, 2016


oh sorry Stavros

I feel like everyone forgot about Cruz this time
posted by zutalors! at 4:59 PM on March 15, 2016


So we're looking at Clinton v Nightmare Convention Chaos Granfalloon in the general, yes?
posted by prize bull octorok at 5:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Florida called for Trump.
posted by adrianhon at 5:01 PM on March 15, 2016


Florida called for Trump and Clinton, no surprise (and Clinton is ahead by a huge margin with 50% reporting).

Goodbye Marco...
posted by thefoxgod at 5:01 PM on March 15, 2016


Florida was just called for Trump and Clinton: AP/NYT.
posted by Westringia F. at 5:01 PM on March 15, 2016


Just because Trump is an asshat doesn't mean he can't be right sometimes. Rubio is a big loser who just lost his home state in a landslide.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Looks like Kasich will likely take Ohio, which is the scenario many were predicting would likely prevent Trump from being able to get an outright majority by the convention.

FLA went Trump, which was the other leg of that stool. It'll be tougher, but he can still do it.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:02 PM on March 15, 2016


"If Hillary Clinton were smart, she'd put John Kasich on her ticket." -- Chris Matthews. wtf.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Thanks Drinky Die for saying what I couldn't quite spit out. Trump is taking away my Pollyannish belief that a large percentage of my fellow countrypeople wouldn't come out and support Hitler 2.0; he's not taking away my ability to make fun of an asshole like Rubio too.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 5:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


And Trump losing Ohio means Kasich stays in a bit longer, which actually works in Trump's favor.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:04 PM on March 15, 2016


"If Hillary Clinton were smart, she'd put John Kasich on her ticket." -- Chris Matthews. wtf.

Somebody who references past elections so much should have a better memory for who Kasich is. The politics there are not even close to compatible. This isn't a McCain and Lieberman situation.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


"If Hillary Clinton were smart, she'd put John Kasich on her ticket." -- Chris Matthews. wtf.

I heard that too roomthreeseventeen, it made me feel ill. Media center-rightism for the win. Nobody is ever allowed to call that Bush-voting jerk a liberal ever again.
posted by dialetheia at 5:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


i know this is an old refrain, but it is fucked up that any numbers get reported while polls are still open. our 24hr news cycle has ruined so much, and this might seem like small potatoes, but it pisses me off every time.
posted by nadawi at 5:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Just because Trump is an asshat doesn't mean he can't be right sometimes.

"I mean, say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos."
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, depends on what Kasich does and whether Cruz can keep doing well in future elections (today is not particularly good for Cruz overall from what I can see, but other than Missouri these don't seem like good states for him anyway).
posted by thefoxgod at 5:07 PM on March 15, 2016


BOVE/JESSAMYN 2016
posted by Wordshore at 5:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


There was a pretty reasonable looking analysis / data simulation posted upthread which argued that Is such winning Ohio is actually good for Trump because it keeps the race from collapsing to a two person fight for a while longer.

I still think the most likely outcome regardless of tonight's results is Trump getting about 45% of delegates and MAXIMUM CHAOS at the convention.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


i know this is an old refrain, but it is fucked up that any numbers get reported while polls are still open.

I hear you, but the alternative is less reliable numbers getting reported.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:08 PM on March 15, 2016


how would hillary be able to hang onto that planned parenthood endorsement if she picked john kasich??? there's no way they'd be okay with that
posted by burgerrr at 5:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Like yeah, let's pair one of the biggest champions for women's rights in American history with an extreme pro-lifer. Good plan, Chris!
posted by Drinky Die at 5:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


New Bat Boy Film!

This is like the best thread in the history of elections!
posted by mikelieman at 5:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


or, i dunno, waiting the approximately 12 hours necessary to get the actual count. it's totally fucking insane and unquestionably a product of horse race 24-hour news coverage.
posted by indubitable at 5:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Clinton isn't going to pick Kasich. It's a stupid idea.
posted by Justinian at 5:10 PM on March 15, 2016


And Trump losing Ohio means Kasich stays in a bit longer, which actually works in Trump's favor.

At this point, Trump's basically got a lock (or would have, in a normal year and if he weren't a monster bent on destroying his own party at the very least). Kasich winning Ohio basically just makes the possibility of a last-ditch effort to get rid of Trump at the convention somewhat viable.

But the question before Republicans is which path is going to be less destructive, to their future chances, to downticket races, to the GOP's viability as a party going forward: bend the knee to Trump, or fight to oust him at the convention, or just cut and run and form a third, trad-conservative party and leave him with the rump of a Chaos Party.

Interesting times.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:11 PM on March 15, 2016


If Clinton picked Kasich I'd vote for Trump because the Democratic Party would need to die and Trump would literally kill them.
posted by eriko at 5:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Geez people, Chris Matthews saying stupid shit isn't exactly surprising.
posted by octothorpe at 5:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Chris Matthews is Exhibit A in the newest addition to the national mall, the Gallery of People Who Swear Up And Down That They're Liberals But They Just Are Not.
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Clinton isn't going to pick Kasich. It's a stupid idea.

Yup, and Chris Matthews is a stupid pundit.
posted by dialetheia at 5:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Wow Sanders is getting crushed in Florida. I might have underestimated her net delegate advantage today.

I really can't see how Sanders has a route to the nomination now. There just aren't enough caucus and 90% white states remaining.
posted by vuron at 5:12 PM on March 15, 2016


waiting the approximately 12 hours necessary to get the actual count. it's totally fucking insane and unquestionably a product of horse race 24-hour news coverage.

Last week, I had gone to sleep early, woke up earlier ( like 4am eastern time ) and got to read it all after it settled down.

I think I'm going to close this window now, thank you for all the good 80's/90's memories about the WWN, and we'll see what's happened in the morning over coffee.
posted by mikelieman at 5:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I mean, why should anyone listen to a goddamn thing he has to say about politics - especially Democratic politics - if he seriously thinks that's even worth consideration? It boggles the mind.
posted by dialetheia at 5:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Man, heckling Rubio at his concession speech is just awful.
posted by Justinian at 5:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Marco is conceding Florida. He sounds happy and relieved. Was in way over his head.
posted by Lyme Drop at 5:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Its still quite possible for Trump to end up with <50% of the delegates. However, it seems very likely he will have the plurality, and if they don't give him the nomination I suspect his supporters will be more than a little unhappy. As much as they might not like their chances with Trump, if their goal is to elect a President then they are probably better off nominating him at that point (on the other hand, if they want to keep Trump out of the party at all costs they could spite him and basically completely throw the election).
posted by thefoxgod at 5:13 PM on March 15, 2016


Rubio's audience hates the shit out of Trump.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm really tired of the "people are angry" narrative. Where the hell are all these angry people at midterms.
posted by zutalors! at 5:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Now Marco's supporters are shouting down a heckler à la Trump supporters.
posted by Lyme Drop at 5:14 PM on March 15, 2016


Ooh, Marco's talking.
posted by box at 5:14 PM on March 15, 2016


Anyone catch what the protester yelled?
posted by Drinky Die at 5:14 PM on March 15, 2016




Man, heckling Rubio at his concession speech is just awful.


that's what I mean, Trump "loser" narrative taking over.
posted by zutalors! at 5:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Kasich winning Ohio basically just makes the possibility of a last-ditch effort to get rid of Trump at the convention somewhat viable.

FLA would have done that. This just keeps the field divided enough for Trump to keep a plurality.

Wow Sanders is getting crushed in Florida.

Two to one is about what everyone was expecting.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Man, heckling Rubio at his concession speech is just awful.

I never felt bad for Marco until that moment.
posted by Gaz Errant at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


it seems like in this race humility is a weakness and braggadocio a virtue, which is not how public service is supposed to be.

If that's not how public service is supposed to be then someone should have told the last seventy years (at least)
posted by phearlez at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2016


Geez people, Chris Matthews saying stupid shit isn't exactly surprising.

It's sort of what he does.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Now Marco's supporters are shouting down a heckler à la Trump supporters.

Not really, they didn't punch them or tell them to go to Auschwitz.
posted by zutalors! at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


What is everyone watching?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2016


Where the hell are all these angry people at midterms.

Remember the 2010 midterm Tea Party revolution? Thats where.

If you mean on the left, liberals don't vote in midterms (not literally true obviously, but there is a much bigger falling off on the left in non-Presidential years).
posted by thefoxgod at 5:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm watching a sad puppy getting kicked in the rain. Or is it Rubio's concession speech? Hard to say.
posted by Justinian at 5:16 PM on March 15, 2016


MSNBC
posted by triggerfinger at 5:16 PM on March 15, 2016


MSNBC for me.
posted by Gaz Errant at 5:16 PM on March 15, 2016


WaPo (I know, I know) is streaming Rubio's speech on its front page, too.
posted by Westringia F. at 5:17 PM on March 15, 2016


Now Marco's supporters are shouting down a heckler à la Trump supporters.

Protestors being frequent at speeches and the audience being instructed to chant to drown them out is not something new with Trump. He just attracts a lot more protesters for obvious reasons and added the part about wishing to beat them up.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


"I was elected in the tea party wave election, so you know I certainly don't prey on people's fear, anger, and frustration. Also Obamacare will kill your grandma."
posted by Drinky Die at 5:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Where the hell are all these angry people at midterms.

Remember the 2010 midterm Tea Party revolution? Thats where.

If you mean on the left, liberals don't vote in midterms (not literally true obviously, but there is a much bigger falling off on the left in non-Presidential years).


Well I think a lot of the angry trump people didn't vote in 2010.

Also it wasn't really a "teach me this fact" question, it was a question of frustration about midterms.
posted by zutalors! at 5:20 PM on March 15, 2016


If only Rubio had actually tried voting for stuff when he was a Senator, or showing up to the committees he was in!

Pathetic waste of a good looking (Latino) face, GOP fail again.
posted by Max Power at 5:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Rubio's quitting!
posted by zutalors! at 5:21 PM on March 15, 2016


Clinton/Kasich is dumb because honestly Dems don't need to build their entire strategy on winning Ohio. And even then there are better running mate options.
posted by vuron at 5:21 PM on March 15, 2016


I never felt bad for Marco until that moment.

Yeah, I thought my heart was totally closed to him and his ilk, but I have to admit that the way he is stumbling through this speech is actually giving me pangs of empathy.

And there it is! The official mention of withdrawal! What an odd journey this continues to be.
posted by youarenothere at 5:22 PM on March 15, 2016


I wonder if Clinton won people over or if Sanders lost people? Either way, these results are good for her campaign.
posted by kanewai at 5:22 PM on March 15, 2016


Rubio: "Working hard as a bartender and a maid they bought a house and retired with dignity"

Fuck you, Rubio. You know that's not possible in this day and age.
posted by Talez at 5:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [36 favorites]


"We are the descendants of go-getters!"
posted by box at 5:23 PM on March 15, 2016


Well I think a lot of the angry trump people didn't vote in 2010.

I don't know, they strike me as similar to the angry tea party people. Would be interested to see if anyone has any studies on how likely those people were to end up Trump voters. Concerns seem similar (and both had very explicit racial angles).
posted by thefoxgod at 5:24 PM on March 15, 2016


I hope Trump responds to Rubio dropping out with "Who has the bigger dick now?"
posted by Sangermaine at 5:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Just shut the fuck up, Rubio. Just shut the fuck up, get off the stage and never be heard from again you hypocritical cockwit.
posted by Talez at 5:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Guys, what was that meme a while ago where they would play this sad song (I think it was from a TV show) under any sort of faux tragic event?
posted by Trochanter at 5:25 PM on March 15, 2016


Play him off, keyboard cat?
posted by youarenothere at 5:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


Donivaldus Octavius has defeated Marcus Antonius Rubicon in Florida. Someone better keep him away from sharp objects for the next few days.

From a shallow grave (aka a smoky room full of dead-eyed RNC operators), the ghostly apparition of Jebaeus Pompous Magnbush grins weakly.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I wonder if Clinton won people over or if Sanders lost people? Either way, these results are good for her campaign.

Sanders wasn't expected to do much better than 2:1 in Florida, and she was expected to win NC too. The Ohio results are still really early - almost all of those initial votes are absentee/early voting from what I can tell looking at the county-by-county results. We'll see how it ends up.

Re: midterms, I have never seen a single shred of evidence that it's hard-left liberals who don't show up and vote - most evidence I can find indicates that it's less-reliable, less-partisan voters who stay home, mostly young and minority voters.
posted by dialetheia at 5:26 PM on March 15, 2016


Rubio's ending statements translated into Arabic: ALLAHU AKBAR!
posted by Talez at 5:26 PM on March 15, 2016


Marco!
posted by eriko at 5:26 PM on March 15, 2016


Rubio: "May God strengthen our eventual nominee."
posted by Westringia F. at 5:26 PM on March 15, 2016


As much as I hate Trump, I cannot deny that I continue to love watching every other GOP candidate fail. Silver linings, I guess.
posted by Greg Nog at 5:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Yeah, my point re midterms is that angry people should vote in them or I have no sympathy for angry people.
posted by zutalors! at 5:27 PM on March 15, 2016


Play him off, keyboard cat?

Walk of Life?
posted by peeedro at 5:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


FLA would have done that. This just keeps the field divided enough for Trump to keep a plurality.

Not sure what you mean -- there was nothing in play today that could have feasibly thwarted Trump's primary romp. I mean a loss in Florida for him might have slowed his momentum, but there's no recent point at which a loss for him in Florida seemed like a real possibility, I don't think, so it's kind of moot.

Divided GOP field or not, at this point, it's just too late for them to stop him before the convention, and so the question becomes (for the Republicans, at least) what can be done to make that convention chaos more likely to happen (and if that's what they need to do). If they'd taken the threat he represents seriously a few months back, then maybe a concerted anti-Trump faction could have emerged, but: egos and rank incompetence lost the day for them.

Fascinating to watch.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:27 PM on March 15, 2016


I wonder if Clinton won people over or if Sanders lost people? Either way, these results are good for her campaign.
She was way ahead in all of the polling in Florida. It would have been bad for her campaign if she hadn't won decisively. Having said that, I read somewhere that the AP exit polling suggested that most Democratic voters said they'd be happy with either Sanders or Clinton. I think that the internet vitriol is making people overestimate the distance that people perceive between them. I don't think that people were trying to figure out who was actually the devil: Bernie or Hillary. They either liked Hillary a little more or thought she was a little better as a candidate.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Race and Beyond: Why Young, Minority, and Low-Income Citizens Don’t Vote (from right after the 2014 midterms)
posted by dialetheia at 5:28 PM on March 15, 2016


Rubio needs this music.
posted by mmoncur at 5:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Guys, what was that meme a while ago where they would play this sad song (I think it was from a TV show) under any sort of faux tragic event?

A song, you say? (1:33)
posted by Apocryphon at 5:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Just shut the fuck up, Rubio. Just shut the fuck up, get off the stage and never be heard from again you hypocritical cockwit.

Second.

Guys, what was that meme a while ago where they would play this sad song (I think it was from a TV show) under any sort of faux tragic event?

Dunno. I think this moment calls for this. Or maybe this.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:29 PM on March 15, 2016


Guys, what was that meme a while ago where they would play this sad song (I think it was from a TV show) under any sort of faux tragic event?

mmm whatcha say
posted by SugarAndSass at 5:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


This?
posted by infinitewindow at 5:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


This is insane. Rubio had 3x the delegates Kasich does.
posted by zarq at 5:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


This is insane.

CHAOS RULES
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]




Google, which is guess gets its results from AP, has called N. Carolina for Clinton (58 - 38).
posted by octothorpe at 5:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




For people asking about whether Sanders has a plausible path to the nomination, this is the most recent spreadsheet analysis I've seen (includes Michigan). He's losing Florida by more than was penciled in here (that projection seemed pretty optimistic based purely on the age demographics), but it's not like he's completely tanking his projections. Bigger wins in New York or California, which have tons of delegates, could make up for it if he can keep momentum up. I'm reasonably sure he'll still have funding to continue through to the convention regardless of what happens.
posted by dialetheia at 5:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Makes me wonder if Rubio is about to team up (VP?) with Kasich. Which, of course, would just prolong the whole mess and help Trump. But I've realized that every Republican's goal at this point is to shoot the party in the foot, so it makes sense from that perspective.
posted by mmoncur at 5:34 PM on March 15, 2016


How were they able to call NC so early?
posted by windbox at 5:35 PM on March 15, 2016


Clinton must be crushing it.
posted by Justinian at 5:36 PM on March 15, 2016


I'm so confused, how are they able to call NC so early? Google says only 8% reported?

Exit polls.
posted by girlmightlive at 5:36 PM on March 15, 2016


The Republican Party's Descent Into Madness Is Not Limited to the Campaign Trail: In which the Freedom Caucus is still a thing.

Wow, the tea party opposes this:

The GOP budget repeals ObamaCare, shrinks the Commerce Department, strips funding from the Environmental Protection Agency, creates a pay-in structure for Medicare and give states control over the food stamps program. It would add $89 billion more in military funding than what President Obama has proposed.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:36 PM on March 15, 2016


Weirdly, the best shot for Kasich to actually win the nomination right now would be for him to win Ohio, immediately suspend his campaign, and then say, "Vote for Cruz, everybody, and see you at the contested convention!" (This will not, of course, happen, because real life doesn't work like that.)
posted by kyrademon at 5:37 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I'm so confused, how are they able to call NC so early? Google says only 8% reported?

In every state there are tight districts and outliers. If the outliers break unexpectedly, you can safely call the state pretty early.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:37 PM on March 15, 2016


I would not have thought, 6 months ago, that so many hopes would be pinned on Kasich.
posted by duffell at 5:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


NPR just called Ohio for Clinton.
posted by theodolite at 5:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My God, is Bernie getting crushed today?
posted by gadget_gal at 5:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Kasich doesn't stand a chance in a contested convention. If Trump gets blocked from winning outright then it will be Romney/Bush or Bush/Romney
posted by vuron at 5:40 PM on March 15, 2016


sadsville
posted by ian1977 at 5:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


This is insane. Rubio had 3x the delegates Kasich does.

DELEGATES ARE FOR CLOSERS!
posted by Sangermaine at 5:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


mmm whatcha say

That was it. Thanks.
posted by Trochanter at 5:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It feels kind of surreal for Rubio to be out of the race.
posted by delight at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


gadget: Clinton is cleaning up. I don't see that Sanders has a path to the nomination after today (as I've said before) that doesn't involve crazy external events.
posted by Justinian at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


NYTimes shows Ohio going to Clinton

Also Trump won every county in Florida except Miami-Dade
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016


MSNBC calls Ohio for Clinton.
posted by cooker girl at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016


mmm whatcha say

ha I forgot about that

Dear Sister
posted by zutalors! at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016


I heard a horrible rumor today - I'm curious what my fellow mefites think about it. It has potentially been discussed but I haven't had the time to peruse this thread in detail.

The rumor is that Democrats are voting for Trump in the open primaries in an attempt to both "guarantee" a Democratic win and destroy the Republican Party. No substantiation other than Trump's overwhelming victories in open primaries was offered (is that true?). Thoughts? The idea of it makes me sad.
posted by double bubble at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yeah Missouri and Ohio were his best bets today. Ohio being called this early which I did not expect is major. Sanders is effectively done at this point.
posted by vuron at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016


Thanks for that link, dialetheia. Interesting stuff
posted by zarq at 5:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


> "Kasich doesn't stand a chance in a contested convention."

I said his best shot. Which is still an infinitesimally small shot.
posted by kyrademon at 5:43 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


And Then There Were Zero (538):

A lot of what we think we know about nominations hinges on whether this argument about coordination failure was right. And it now kind of looks like it wasn’t. Walker got winnowed out during the debate stage. Bush couldn’t turn his candidacy into a significant presence in the early contests, and Rubio’s disappointing run ends with this big loss in his home state. It seems like our misfire may have been not about those candidates getting in each other’s way, but a fundamental misunderstanding about what Republican primary voters want and about the power they wield in the process.

Geez, that seemed like ages ago. I remember how everyone was thinking how formidable Walker was or how Rubio seemed to be the shiny rising star. It's amazing and surprising to look back on how wrong things have gotten.
posted by FJT at 5:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Sanders' chances aren't dead yet.
posted by zarq at 5:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trump Sanders 2016 :P
posted by ian1977 at 5:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


"Done" is relative for Sanders, though, to be clear. He'll continue to rack up delegates and win states through to the convention.
posted by Justinian at 5:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


If there were a musical about today, it might be called Bye Bye Bernie
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 5:45 PM on March 15, 2016


The rumor is that Democrats are voting for Trump in the open primaries in an attempt to both "guarantee" a Democratic win and destroy the Republican Party. No substantiation other than Trump's overwhelming victories in open primaries was offered (is that true?). Thoughts? The idea of it makes me sad.

I don't know why it makes you sad, but I'm sorry to hear it. It definitely happens, and is definitely happening, though.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:45 PM on March 15, 2016


> "The rumor is that Democrats are voting for Trump in the open primaries in an attempt to both 'guarantee' a Democratic win and destroy the Republican Party."

I don't believe this. I think it is, bizarrely, wishful thinking. I think the Democrats who are voting for Trump want Trump to win.
posted by kyrademon at 5:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Since the beginning of the debates I have vacillated between Clinton and Sanders. I have reasons to support both of them. Sadly that has all changed. Clinton's remarks about the Reagans' response to the HIV/AIDS crisis in the 80's have solidified my support of Sanders. I grew up in the 80's and came to political consciousness during that time. Her complete rewriting of history in praising the way the Reagans' behaved during that time is unconscionable. Her amnesia seems to be due to pandering to the Reagan lovers that also find the current crop of creeps that the Republicans are fielding horrible. Shame on you Hilary Clinton.

Until yesterday I have never registered as a Democrat despite always voting Democratic. I did this so that I can caucus here in Alaska on the 26th. The fact is, since I live in Alaska and the presidential election is always called long before our polls close, my vote counts for little. Caucusing will be the only way I will be able to have an effect in this election. Don't get me wrong, I will vote for Clinton if she is the Democratic candidate, but mostly because all the Republicans are beyond repugnant and odious in every way.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 5:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


The rumor is that Democrats are voting for Trump in the open primaries in an attempt to both "guarantee" a Democratic win and destroy the Republican Party.
I am sure that a few Democrats are doing that. I don't think any knowledgeable person would think it was making a difference in elections.

I am really hesitant to count Bernie out, and I think we should wait for delegate counts from tonight before we reevaluate the race.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Did Trump's last minute smear against Bernie being responsible for the Chicago rally protest work?
posted by FJT at 5:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's the destroying the Repubkican Party part that makes me sad. I have a new appreciation for sincere debate.
posted by double bubble at 5:47 PM on March 15, 2016


I don't know why it makes you sad

I was planning on that kind of screw up the Republicans strategic vote before I was persuaded (mainly by dialethia) to support Sanders, but the reality of how dangerous Trump is has become all too clear. It's dangerous to help him get any closer to the White House, even if you believe he can't win.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Maybe it will be 4 Michigans late tonight.
posted by ian1977 at 5:48 PM on March 15, 2016


I don't believe this. I think it is, bizarrely, wishful thinking.

Huh. Well, I could be wrong. I have been before. I thought this was a well-known, generally accepted strategic thing that some people did, though...
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:48 PM on March 15, 2016


I'll go vote in November, but I have no enthusiasm for Secretary Clinton. It appears that I'm in the minority on that, and I can't envision a Republican I'd actually vote for, so I guess I'll be voting for the Democrat. This is a very disappointing day for me.
posted by wintermind at 5:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


No FJT more likely is that people are backing the strongest candidate.
posted by Max Power at 5:49 PM on March 15, 2016


We always knew the Ides of March would be the nadir for Sanders supporters. And yeah, it looks like we have more ground to make up than we hoped. Still, we can soldier on.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Can we not call into doubt the validity of the democratic process? In understand that some people are going to be unhappy that their candidate is doing poorly today but can we really not try to manufacture a "stolen" election meme? There are plenty of people that for whatever reason like Clinton as a candidate and saying that the democratic process is somehow suspect because she's winning today is not cool.
posted by vuron at 5:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [31 favorites]


NC for the Republicans is close. 538 is saying there's a chance Cruz overtakes Trump there in the end.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:49 PM on March 15, 2016


"The rumor is that Democrats are voting for Trump in the open primaries in an attempt to both 'guarantee' a Democratic win and destroy the Republican Party."

This is the first primary election in a long time I've not used my indie status in MA to troll the Republican primary for the biggest garbage fire.

Having a kid changes things, I guess. It really makes you think hard about the future. I signed him up for sword fighting lessons and he's learning how to play a flamethrowing guitar and everything.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


I've defended Clinton here but I don't have enthusiasm for her either. What I have enthusiasm for is not letting a racist demagogue into the White House. Maybe it would be nice if that were not the way things are but that's what I've got.
posted by Justinian at 5:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Bernie will get my vote here in Maryland, but our primary is very late.
posted by wintermind at 5:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


>Bernie not winning makes me sad
Because Americans are the only ones that think public colleges being tuition free is idealism. PS- I a a teacher.
posted by gadget_gal at 5:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I thought this was a well-known, generally accepted strategic thing that some people did, though...
I think that a lot of people were talking about doing it in January, but as it became more clear that Trump was a viable candidate, and more clear that he's a seriously scary candidate, people have begun to have second thoughts.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Clinton's remarks about the Reagans' response to the HIV/AIDS crisis in the 80's have solidified my support of Sanders.

Clinton wrote an apology for that and gave credit to the actual activists.

Still a horrific mistake to make, but I think the apology is important to know about.
posted by SugarAndSass at 5:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


So the Republicans are down to the Guy Nobody Likes, the Guy Everyone Hates, and the Guy Nobody Knows? Party of Lincoln, ladies and gentlemen. Your Party of Lincoln.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


It's the destroying the Repubkican Party part that makes me sad.

Well, to be honest, the GOP is destroying itself with great alacrity this year on its own. I honestly don't think it's going to survive in anything like the form it's had since the Reagan years. It doesn't really need any help from Democrats or Independents to hurry it along, I don't think -- and like ArbitraryAndCapricious said, the strategic thing, if it's happening, is probably not making any difference.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Clinton wrote an apology for that and gave credit to the actual activists.

There was a lot of nice stuff in there but at no point did she explain why she said it in the first place.
posted by dialetheia at 5:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


The current GOP would would beat Lincoln to death and spit on his corpse.

Even Reagan would be shunned as a filthy RINO.

The current GOP is completely insane.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I've defended her as well, she has some very good qualities and some very bad qualities and I can definitely understand being ambivalent about her.

But the level of false equivalency that I've seen in progressive circles regarding Clinton is truly troublesome because I don't think people realize how much worse any of the Republican options would be in comparison to Clinton. So hold your nose if you must and try to primary her in 2020 but for the sake of your fellow American don't disengage.
posted by vuron at 5:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [22 favorites]


Hmm: NBC is calling Ohio for Kasich. Not seeing anyone else being so bold at this point (he has a 9% lead with 537/8,887 precincts reporting, a margin of ~37,000 votes).
posted by Westringia F. at 5:54 PM on March 15, 2016


Hell the current gop would beat Nixon to death and spit on his corpse.
posted by ian1977 at 5:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


uh...she won Ohio by a LOT.
posted by zutalors! at 5:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Speculation:
We are going to see one of the ugliest, most disgusting general elections in US History.
posted by yertledaturtle at 5:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


New York Times has called Ohio for Kasich as well.
posted by kyrademon at 5:56 PM on March 15, 2016


From now on, whenever anyone says crap about Ohio being a flyover state, I'm gonna say, "Oh yeah? At least Ohio didn't go Trump on Super Tuesday."
posted by cooker girl at 5:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [30 favorites]


Update to my last comment: AP just called OH for Kasich.
posted by Westringia F. at 5:57 PM on March 15, 2016


Oof. A sweep for Clinton today?

I guess I can redirect that $15 a month from Bernie back to Public Radio.
posted by notyou at 5:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


uh...she won Ohio by a LOT.

They aren't displaying the final numbers here, remember.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


uh...she won Ohio by a LOT.

Can you point us to where you are seeing the full results for Ohio?
posted by lalex at 5:58 PM on March 15, 2016


I guess one good thing about Trump is that it breaks the Tea Party narrative about True Conservatives. It's clear that a very large part of the base doesn't really care about ideology and orthodoxy, despite the appearance of lockstep conformity at the top.

I wonder if that shows a way forward for more moderate conservatives who don't buy into the Real Conservative tax pledge bullshit.

It's unfortunate that that part of the base also seems to be very responsive to Trump's racist nativism...
posted by Sangermaine at 5:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


uh...she won Ohio by a LOT.
I don't think we know that yet, right? Everyone is calling her the winner, but less than 10% of precincts have reported, and we don't know by how much.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]



We are going to see one of the ugliest, most disgusting general elections in US History.


I believe in the women of this country. We will not allow Trump.
posted by zutalors! at 5:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


Clinton about to speak.
posted by Drinky Die at 5:58 PM on March 15, 2016


I just hope she throws progressives a bone and picks a Bernie-esque vp we can get excited about in 8 years.
posted by ian1977 at 5:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]



uh...she won Ohio by a LOT.
I don't think we know that yet, right? Everyone is calling her the winner, but less than 10% of precincts have reported, and we don't know by how much.


true I may have misread. But if they're calling it at only 10% it's probably not that close.
posted by zutalors! at 5:59 PM on March 15, 2016


From now on, whenever anyone says crap about Ohio being a flyover state, I'm gonna say, "Oh yeah? At least Ohio didn't go Trump on Super Tuesday."

I thought the states which touched the Great Lakes got special exemption from Flyover Status.
posted by Justinian at 5:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


If you take a look at how Nixon and Reagan campaigned (and how Reagan governed in California) it would be difficult to say that "the current GOP would beat them to death and spit on their corpses."

As has been mentioned many, many times before, the current mess the GOP is in has it's roots in Nixon's Southern Strategy.

And Reagan of course used racist dog whistles such as "welfare queens" in his campaign rhetoric.

The fact of the matter is American political culture is based on racism. This is a structural problem and Trump is just the symptom or ultimate manifestation.
posted by My Dad at 5:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Good news is that Anita Alvarez is getting her butt kicked.
posted by vuron at 6:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Guys, I'm not so happy that Cruz has a chance in NC. If Cruz somehow overtakes Trump and manages to get the nomination, I'm terrified that the media well be like "oh, he's not so bad" compared to Trump and we'll end up with a christian dominionist in the white house.
posted by zug at 6:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


If you take a look at how Nixon and Reagan campaigned (and how Reagan governed in California) it would be difficult to say that "the current GOP would beat them to death and spit on their corpses."

I was more referring to what Reagan did in office: raised taxes several times, passed a full immigration amnesty act, and actually conducted diplomacy with the USSR, among other things. He would never pass the ideology tests that have been set up for Republicans in the last two decades. Any one of those things would get him derided as a RINO, all of them would mean he has no place in the party at all.

Lincoln also ran on basically the exact opposite of modern GOP beliefs, especially his espousing of a very strong federal government.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Cruz has no shot at winning the nomination outright and his chances of getting out of Cleveland without a shiv in his back are about zero.
posted by vuron at 6:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Clinton talking about equal pay for equal work - why I want to vote for her.
posted by zutalors! at 6:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Hillary bringing the bread and butter.
posted by vrakatar at 6:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I believe in the women of this country. We will not allow Trump.
I do too. I hope you are right. That said, I don't think I will be able to stomach the disgusting stuff Trump's supporters are going to say about Clinton and women in general.

It's doubly troubling to me because on many issues I do not agree with Clinton and Third-Way politics at all. I want to be able to defend her, but how can I defend things I do not agree with politically - honestly?
posted by yertledaturtle at 6:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Hillary is looking presidential.
posted by cmfletcher at 6:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


I wonder if the Kasich call is premature. His lead over Trump was 10% a little while ago, now it's 8%, and only 8% are reporting.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:08 PM on March 15, 2016


I've heard it before, so you're definitely not the only one, but he's only 6 years older than Clinton and 5 years older than Trump.

...and only 5 years older than Saint Ronnie Raygun was at his inauguration.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 6:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I defend the 75% of the stuff we agree on and hold on to the fact that she's still better than the GOP on the other 25%.
posted by Justinian at 6:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


I really appreciate that Clinton always includes people with disabilities when talking about equal rights. It's such a small thing to do, but it's so rare for people to do it.
posted by SugarAndSass at 6:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [51 favorites]



Hillary is looking presidential.


Her speech is like HERE'S ALL MY STUFF
posted by zutalors! at 6:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I want to be able to defend her, but how can I defend things I do not agree with politically - honestly?
My advice is to focus on the things that you do agree with, and then think longterm. Think about appointing Supreme Court justices who will overturn Citizens United. And then focus on any downticket races that you're excited about.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


It's doubly troubling to me because on many issues I do not agree with Clinton and Third-Way politics at all. I want to be able to defend her, but how can I defend things I do not agree with politically - honestly?

I hate drone warfare. It keeps me up at night. I support Obama. YMMV.
posted by zutalors! at 6:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


I was going to send a MeMail, but I'd rather thank dialetheia publically for fighting the good fight. She's presented so much information and I appreciate it. I have never felt the need to tone police myself here as much as in the US politics threads, as a Sanders supporter. So, congratulations to HRC on her victories tonight, but please try to keep in mind that many people here really, truly believe in Sanders, for reasons that are not sexist. Which is so say, please, please, please don't gloat. We're supposed to be in this together.
posted by Ruki at 6:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [54 favorites]


we'll end up with a christian dominionist in the white house.

I cannot see any way on earth that Cruz will be the Republican nominee. And if by some CHAOS RULES happenstance he is, he will be soundly, convincingly, humiliatingly defeated in the general.

On good days, after reading stats about how many actual Republicans are (at least right now) resolutely against Trump, I feel pretty confident that he would also be crushed in the general, even assuming some Democrats lose their minds.

On good days.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:12 PM on March 15, 2016


Hillary is looking presidential.

She won't officially be my candidate until the day Sanders concedes, but I'll never deny, that more than anyone else this election season, she totally embodies whatever the nebulous definition of presidential is. I can just see it, ya know?
posted by youarenothere at 6:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


We're supposed to be in this together.

I'm not sure what your definition of gloating is, but plenty of Sanders supporters have been happy when he won. It's not gloating.

Also, several people here have already said they are voting for Trump since Sanders isn't looking good tonight. Is that faith? As a minority, it makes me really angry.
posted by zutalors! at 6:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


She probably practices in front of a mirror.
posted by Justinian at 6:14 PM on March 15, 2016


I know I would.
posted by cooker girl at 6:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


I can totally support a moritorium on football spiking. Be happy with Clinton winning but there is absolutely no need to spike the football because Sanders supporters should be welcomed with open arms.
posted by vuron at 6:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Rubio says he won't beat us up.
posted by ian1977 at 6:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Clinton talking about equal pay for equal work - why I want to vote for her.

She practices what she preaches too - in salary, overall representation and leadership positions.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Now Kasich has protesters.
posted by zutalors! at 6:18 PM on March 15, 2016


She probably practices in front of a mirror.

Perhaps. I suppose I prefer effortful rhetoric, however practiced, to the other frontrunner's stream of consciousness nonsensical bile.
posted by youarenothere at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


I have never felt the need to tone police myself here as much as in the US politics threads, as a Sanders supporter.

Well, I can sympathize. As a Clinton supporter, in the last month I've tried to avoid getting into comparisons between Sanders and Clinton and instead have mostly been trying to talk about Donald Trump. I realized that continually trying to poke holes into each other's candidates just makes me not want to vote for either.
posted by FJT at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


This country needs supporters of Bernie Sanders now more than ever. Clinton cannot defeat genocidal racism on her own.

We all need to come together to resist this cloud of fascism brewing over our country. We all have a responsibility -- an obligation -- to fight for basic human decency.
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


stavrosthewonderchicken: I cannot see any way on earth that Cruz will be the Republican nominee. And if by some CHAOS RULES happenstance he is, he will be soundly, convincingly, humiliatingly defeated in the general.

I agree. Cruz would be a scarier president as he's a True Believer, but Trump scares me more as a candidate because he says insane things in such a way that seemingly rational people nod their heads and say, "It's not forever, he's just talking about banning muslims temporarily. You know, until we figure stuff out."
posted by bluecore at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also, several people here have already said they are voting for Trump since Sanders isn't looking good tonight. Is that faith? As a minority, it makes me really angry.

I have not seen one person who is a Sanders supporter say the are going to vote for Trump on Metafilter. Do you have an example of this?
posted by yertledaturtle at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Plenty of Sanders supporters have been happy he's won because they've said the longer he stays in the race, the more it pulls HRC to the left. I've been working all along to prevent my parents from voting for Trump. I assure you I will never vote for him. All around, we could do with less "all HRC supporters this" and "all Sanders supporters that." It's alienating all around and this race is too important for that.
posted by Ruki at 6:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


Kasich is having his audition.
posted by vrakatar at 6:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


That was OK handling of the protesters by Kasich though
posted by Cookiebastard at 6:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My advice is to focus on the things that you do agree with, and then think longterm. Think about appointing Supreme Court justices who will overturn Citizens United. And then focus on any downticket races that you're excited about.
Thanks. Will do my best.
posted by yertledaturtle at 6:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


OK, so to zoom out we are looking at a 2.5 person race on the Republican side -- Trumpists vs. Cruzites with a rump 0.5 for Kasich until he drops out.

Roughly, that corresponds to two of the three major groups in the GOP: Trump representing the white-nationalist element and Cruz the standard-bearer of the Religious Right. The third group, business-friendly social moderates (the "establishment") are going to be split four ways for the next few months: some will back Kasich, some will capitulate to Trump, some will back Cruz as the only viable anti-Trump and some will reluctantly jump to the Democrats.

So the race will be narrowed and clarified. With the GOP establishment in tatters, the struggle on the right will be between conservative white evangelicals and revanchists / white nationalists.

I'm looking to his speech tonight to give some clues on how Trump is going to handle things from here. He's tried, somewhat laughably, to speak the language of evangelicals. He can't do it very well. Cruz is fluent there, as was George W. Bush. But it's a culture that's very different to the culture Trump knows, and I don't think his vulgar shtick will wear well with evangelicals. They prefer modesty and piety in a leader, and firm positions on policies important to them such as abortion, gay marriage and Israel. Trump checks none of those boxes. Cruz, albeit abrasively, does -- and he can frame himself as a persecuted prophet.

So I'm not sure whether Trump takes a continued tack of engagement with evangelicals, hoping to co-opt enough of them to rebuild the shaky GOP coalition; or if he starts to pivot toward a relative moderation on social issues combined with a continued ultra hard line on immigration / racial issues, in the hope that he can get enough independents and conservative white Democrats to cross over to him.

If the latter, I think Trump will have a hard time getting evangelicals to GOTV for him in the fall. I know that from the left-wing perspective of Metafilter the two groups look pretty similar, but in important ways they're not. Evangelicals are the GOP's ground game, the Right's version of the labor unions. And losing a grip on them spells trouble not just for Trump but also for GOP downballot races.

Or maybe this is all just hopeful thinking. A lot can happen between here and Cleveland.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Kasich is so condescending.
posted by Bistle at 6:22 PM on March 15, 2016


She won't officially be my candidate until the day Sanders concedes

I'm a Sanders supporter. I want him to run to the convention and I want him to keep the discussion on the left as long as possible. I want her to not just acknowledge the shift in the Overton window but embrace it. She'll probably win the nomination and hopefully she'll fight for what we want.

/I'm still voting for Bernie in PA cause our primaries never matter
posted by cmfletcher at 6:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Yeah, I was just about to quote this and ask about it. Are you sure, I do not remember anyone suggesting that *they* would do this

Wait, are you sure? I have not watched this thread until just awhile ago but haven't seen this, and I really don't remember it in any other mefi thread. It sounds more like a fantasy/nightmare about what those damn Berniebros are going to do, rather than something that is happening in any real numbers.

On preview, seconding yerteldaturtle.
posted by skewed at 6:23 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Did Kasich just say "As I travel the country, and look into your hives"?
posted by cashman at 6:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I have not seen one person who is a Sanders supporter say the are going to vote for Trump on Metafilter. Do you have an example of this?

Not here, but elsewhere for sure. Reddit definitely. There's a certain type of person who cares only that their vote is "anti-establishment" and little else matters.
posted by youarenothere at 6:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I have not seen one person who is a Sanders supporter say the are going to vote for Trump on Metafilter.

Can't recall seeing this said by anyone here, either.

If anyone actually is thinking that way, though, for whatever reason: please don't.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's going to get very interesting now. Kasich winning his home state is a big spoiler for the angry yam. I don't like Kasich, don't think he's a moderate at all, but if the Repub establishment had a clue they'd be jumping behind him right now.
posted by Ber at 6:25 PM on March 15, 2016


Did Kasich just say "As I travel the country, and look into your hives"?

His human exoskeleton is breaking down!
posted by Sangermaine at 6:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


"I see your teeming, pulsating hives, brimming with the droning of workers and your mighty Queen, to whom I graciously bow. May her brood consume forever!"
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 6:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


Yep, I haven't seen any Trump voters on Metafilter (and don't expect to). There are people who will vote third party if Sanders loses though.
posted by Justinian at 6:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I implore people to listen to what some of us Torontonians have been saying since the summer. Trump reminds us a lot of Rob Ford. He's very electable in the general, and Clinton may be especially vulnerable to him. Dismiss him at your peril.

That said, is he really worse than Reagan? A man who happily dogwhistled to Southern racists that the murder of civil rights workers is a heroic defence of freedom? A demented poor man's John Wayne who joked about annihilating the world with nuclear weapons on a hot mic while president? Like Reagan, there is a serious chance President Trump would end modern human civilization through his idiot bellicosity but it's probably not greater than 4:1 or something like that.

As for the "accelerationist" theory that a Trump presidency would usher in a real leftist revolution: this is another thing that people thought about Ford. After all the nonsense that everyone outside of Toronto knows about, the supremely qualified leftist candidate for mayor and widow of Jack Layton, Olivia Chow was widely expected to romp to an easy victory. Instead, the Ford years just moved the Overton Window to the point where she was completely crushed. Now our current mayor, John Tory, is a man who if he was a fictional character would be dismissed as a ham-handed caricature, an idiot princeling of impeccable pedigree who manages to combine the sneering patrician condescension of Mitt Romney with the lugubrious fecklessness of JEB. And not only that, she came in third, also losing to the carpetbagging evil older brother of Rob Ford, a man dumber than Donald Trump, and also more of a sadistic bully and a more pathological liar. A man who when confronted about his pattern of anti-Semitic statements during the campaign lied about his wife being Jewish.

So yeah, I'm worried about all of you down there. I'm worried about all of us everywhere.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 6:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [23 favorites]


I've heard it before, so you're definitely not the only one, but he's only 6 years older than Clinton and 5 years older than Trump.

And he's fifteen years younger than my grandfather, who still chops wood for the furnace on a daily basis and was seriously considering standing for the Presidency this year on the This Is Not What I Stormed Iwo Jima For You Rat Bastards ticket. I don't see much in the actual medical histories of the candidates to suggest that we have to worry about any of them dying in office.

I was going to send a MeMail, but I'd rather thank dialetheia publically for fighting the good fight.

Christ, a thousand times this. At this stage when I want to find a good piece on Sanders I want to re-read, I open her posting history rather than going to my bookmarks bar.
posted by AdamCSnider at 6:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [22 favorites]


For the record, there has been exactly one person in this thread who said "Well, I guess I'm voting for Trump". I don't know if they were serious.
posted by mmoncur at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016


I have not seen one person who is a Sanders supporter say the are going to vote for Trump on Metafilter.

This may be a reference to the theoretical "Bernie or bust" crowd, who, while not actually voting for Trump, would effectively be voting for him if it ends up Clinton v. Trump.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016


I have not seen one person who is a Sanders supporter say the are going to vote for Trump on Metafilter.

Yeah, I think the worst we have is folks like me who are going to vote 3rd party or not vote, but that is a tiny number of people even here.
posted by Drinky Die at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


There's no need to trash the other side (and I don't see much of that today, thankfully) but its normal/fine to be excited when your candidate wins. There was a lot of shouting in the other thread when Michigan was called for Sanders, and it looks like tonight is shaping up to be a bigger-than-expected night for Clinton.

(There were a couple MeFites who were saying they would abstain or vote third party if Clinton got the nomination, but no one who said they would vote for Trump that I remember).
posted by thefoxgod at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I am happy Sanders ran, and I am happy he has done as well as he has, and that I got the opportunity to caucus for him—and, in some small way, to shift the party platform and national conversation back to the left.

I am also happy to support Clinton in the general election. I think she will be a fine president. (I’ll probably be frustrated with her a lot once she’s in office, but that’s true of literally anybody even remotely capable of winning a presidential election.)
posted by nicepersonality at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


BREAKING: Kasich calls for increased production of Royal Jelly, demands immigrants adopt new pheromones.
posted by Tyrant King Porn Dragon at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Ain't likely too many people around here will actually vote for Trump, zutalors. There are however plenty of people who will not vote for a corporatist like Clinton under any circumstances, myself included.
posted by jeffburdges at 6:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I mean even the notable few conservative voices here are disgusted beyond belief by Trump.
posted by Drinky Die at 6:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


What makes Christie do it?
posted by My Dad at 6:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Kasich is a nurse and takes widows to dinner.
posted by Bistle at 6:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm not going to say who but I do know one Trump supporter here a few weeks ago and I know one person that said he was a Sanders/Trump supporter here at Metafilter.
posted by FJT at 6:27 PM on March 15, 2016


Apparently Kasich is now running on a campaign of taking your elderly neighbor out to dinner.
posted by zachlipton at 6:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Not here, but elsewhere for sure. Reddit definitely. There's a certain type of person who cares only that their vote is "anti-establishment" and little else matters.

Sure I will buy that. Reddit is infested with trolls who will say anything to get a rise out of people. The claim I am disputing is one in which it was claimed that Sanders supporters on Metafilter said that they would vote for Trump.

I have not seen one Sanders supporter on Metafilter ever say this. I, of course, cannot read everything so I want an example.
posted by yertledaturtle at 6:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Missouri looks like a fairly tight race right now for both parties.
posted by kyrademon at 6:28 PM on March 15, 2016


>What makes Christie do it?

A position in the Trump administration? His political career is over if he can't get his foot in the door, nationally speaking.
posted by zug at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016


Trump may be dominating but all my neighbors just pulled together to find someone's lost dog and SUCCEEDED, and, even better:

#BYEEEEEEEANITAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

what the heck was Kasich saying about take her out to dinner and she'll wear the dress?
posted by sallybrown at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


This isn't Reddit, though. I get that those people exist, but not so much here. I guess that's my point. Don't take the rage for that type of Sander-supporters out on the Sanders-supporters here. This is a big loss tonight for us, I'm feeling genuinely sad, and it's disheartening to read comments that are calling the race for HRC right here and now. That's all. Have a great night, everyone.
posted by Ruki at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


There are however plenty of people who will not vote for a corporatist like Clinton under any circumstances, myself included.

Even if those circumstances include Trump or Cruz winning, which would guarantee more corporatism, racism, and other horror?

There's more at stake than just personal feelings. Come November either the Democrat or Republican nominee will be taking the White House, and for a huge number of people who that person is will make a world of difference.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


I might not be remembering correctly or thinking there were more than I saw, but I definitely saw a comment in the last few weeks by someone who wants to vote Republican/Trump because of how much they hate Clinton and has mentioned it several times.

I don't want to dig out that comment though bc I don't want to get into a personal thing. I regret making that comment. I'm happy for Hillary but was also happy for Sanders. I do think being happy is not the same as gloating.
posted by zutalors! at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


or if he starts to pivot toward a relative moderation on social issues combined with a continued ultra hard line on immigration / racial issues, in the hope that he can get enough independents and conservative white Democrats to cross over to him.

I think this is going to be the plan, as much as Trump has one. But I am growing increasingly certain that he doesn't actually have a plan, and that he's pretty much seat-of-the-pantsing this whole fucking thing to feed his ego, and leaving what little strategic thinking might be happening to his employees.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Her speech is like HERE'S ALL MY STUFF

Well, Bernie's stuff. Which is fine. Whichever way the wind blows.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Even if those circumstances include Trump or Cruz winning, which would guarantee more corporatism, racism, and other horror?

Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown.
posted by Justinian at 6:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think this is going to be the plan, as much as Trump has one.

It probably is, but the extreme positions he had to take in order to get the nomination are going to make some great campaign ads for the Democrats.
posted by thefoxgod at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016


Well, Bernie's stuff.

Equal pay is her stuff.
posted by zutalors! at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


What the hell is Kasich talking about?
posted by Arbac at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Kasich is just all over the place in this speech.
posted by cashman at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My advice is to focus on the things that you do agree with, and then think longterm. Think about appointing Supreme Court justices who will overturn Citizens United. And then focus on any downticket races that you're excited about.

Except that the Democratic party is playing the same game with it's base wrt the SC as the Republican party is wrt it's social conservatives. The result is a largely business friendly court that is slowly rolling back the constitutional basis for the New Deal. If anything, this primary shows how Citizens United was actually truly damaging to the Republican party in that it helped make it easier for billionaires to buy their own candidates. But, look at the basically conservative candidates Obama is vetting for the court; the Clintons count on you paying attention to a couple of hot-button issues like abortion or CU, while they push an agenda that is dismantling the legal basis for regulating big business and finance.

Both parties use hot button topics to manipulate their respective bases, the real cases to pay attention to deal with the ability of government to regulate business and the Democrats are playing their base for suckers.
posted by ennui.bz at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


I don't want Sanders to get the nomination, but I'm glad he's running, and I don't necessarily want him to drop out. I think that strongly-contested primaries are good for the process, particularly when they focus on ideas and policies, which this one mostly has. I'm a little sick of feeling like Sanders supporters think I am literally a minion of Satan, but I don't bear them any ill will, and I still believe, as I always have, that we're all going to have to work together to defeat whatever shitstorm the Republicans unleash upon us.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [26 favorites]


I am happy Sanders ran

It's not past tense yet. This was always going to be the darkest day. We don't know how the delegate count will go tonight.
posted by Trochanter at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I have never felt the need to tone police myself here as much as in the US politics threads, as a Sanders supporter. So, congratulations to HRC on her victories tonight, but please try to keep in mind that many people here really, truly believe in Sanders, for reasons that are not sexist. Which is so say, please, please, please don't gloat. We're supposed to be in this together.

I totally agree with and respect this. But I also would like to add that I have felt the exact same way in pretty much every other election thread as a Clinton supporter (who also likes Sanders) where, alongside the Sanders enthusiasm has been a lot of subtly nasty gender stuff that has felt really personal at times. So I think it's good to remember that this can be difficult for a lot of us, for different reasons. That said, I'm very much on board with what you're saying.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [34 favorites]


Missouri looks like a fairly tight race right now for both parties.

Missouri and NC both are tightening up on the Republican side with significant votes left to count.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:32 PM on March 15, 2016


I don't want to dig out that comment though bc I don't want to get into a personal thing. I regret making that comment. I'm happy for Hillary but was also happy for Sanders. I do think being happy is not the same as gloating.

Thanks. I know who you are talking about and he is a Troll. He was not a Sanders supporter. So, please be gentle, this is a sad night for some of us here.
posted by yertledaturtle at 6:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Kasich is just all over the place in this speech.

Yeah...this was not great. Would have thought he would have been preparing for this moment better.
posted by Drinky Die at 6:32 PM on March 15, 2016



I totally agree with and respect this. But I also would like to add that I have felt the exact same way in pretty much every other election thread as a Clinton supporter (who also likes Sanders) where, alongside the Sanders enthusiasm has been a lot of subtly nasty gender stuff that has felt really personal at times.


Yes
posted by zutalors! at 6:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I might not be remembering correctly or thinking there were more than I saw, but I definitely saw a comment in the last few weeks by someone who wants to vote Republican/Trump and has mentioned it several times.

Eh, metafilter has more than a couple of trolls, including one long-time member who loves to antagonize the leftist echo chamber tendencies of metafilter, and this member has definitely made a few pro-trump posts (all self-consciously in the voice of a reddit Trump supporter, since he knows that we mefites tend to find that so annoying). But that's not a Sanders --> Trump post.
posted by skewed at 6:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Odds on Trump mentioning his sweep of the Northern Mariana Islands? After that, odds that trumpistas would wonder why "foreigners" could vote in a presidential primary?
posted by dhens at 6:33 PM on March 15, 2016


NYT is now showing Sanders tied at 49% with Clinton in Missouri.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Why wouldn't many of those jobs just become government jobs doing many of the same things within a better system?


But what about the eight figure ceos and directors? Doesn't anyone care about them?
posted by notreally at 6:35 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Sanders is now leading in Missouri, and Cruz is very close indeed to Trump.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It looks like Sanders may win Missouri which would be a big morale help. I don't think it changes the delegate math but it'll keep this from being a "CLINTON SWEEP DASHES SANDERS HOPES" news cycle. And that's important from a fundraising etc perspective.
posted by Justinian at 6:37 PM on March 15, 2016


Yikes. So that is, I guess, the new Great Establishment Hope? A wet noodle with an anti-woman, anti-labor, anti-poor core. Might as well have stuck with Jeb.
posted by youarenothere at 6:37 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Well right now it seems that both Mo. and (more importantly) Il. are still winnable for Sanders, and Ohio might well be a defeat by less than 10%. In which case he will not drop out and could argue that he did better than expected (until Michigan anyway).
posted by talos at 6:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Kasich is better than Trump or Cruz but, yes, that just means he's like 86% terrible instead of 99%.
posted by Justinian at 6:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Wil Wheaton ‏@wilw 22m22 minutes ago

Shaping up to be another good night for Wall Street and the military industrial complex.
posted by Trochanter at 6:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


While I have reservations about both Clinton and Sanders, I'd be happy to vote for either one. I hope Bernie stays in the race but starts to pivot toward helping Hillary win (and drawing her to the left).

I think keeping Trump and Cruz out of the White House has become a way bigger issue than anything the democrats disagree on. Some of the Clinton vs. Sanders stuff here has looked to me like people on the Titanic arguing about which side of the deck the chairs look better on. Let's focus on getting to shore.
posted by mmoncur at 6:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]




Wil Wheaton ‏@wilw 22m22 minutes ago

Shaping up to be another good night for Wall Street and the military industrial complex.


Yeah, it's impossible that normal, regular people want her to be President.
posted by zutalors! at 6:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [34 favorites]


Both parties use hot button topics to manipulate their respective bases, the real cases to pay attention to

How you categorize a "real case" vs. a (presumably not real?) hot button topic isn't necessarily the same way others do. Racism and sexism, are, y'know, real things to real people as well. Police violence against minorities and abortion access, just to name two critical areas in which progressive policies are being assaulted, have serious consequences and folks who weigh those issues off against the attacks on the New Deal (large chunks of which even the Republican base support, and thus have a lot of inertia and staying power) are not necessarily naive or being taken by a bait-and-switch.

I hope Bernie stays in the race but starts to pivot toward helping Hillary win (and drawing her to the left)

I don't see how him pivoting helps with that. He's been doing fine drawing her leftward just doing what he's been doing: running and talking. There's really no reason why he would stop doing either of those things, he's said he's going all the way to the convention, and the core issue for him has always been to build public support for progressive policies whether or not he actually reaches the Oval Office.
posted by AdamCSnider at 6:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Kasich is better than Trump or Cruz but, yes, that just means he's like 86% terrible instead of 99%.

Well, maybe 94% terrible, but yeah. He's positioning himself as the compromise candidate for a contested convention, which is insanity, but bar somebody parachuting in somehow, that's a reasonable narrative.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Man, I hope Clinton sweeps!
posted by OmieWise at 6:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh good, Wil Wheaton weighed in. It's a good night for misogyny.
posted by Bistle at 6:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Both parties use hot button topics to manipulate their respective bases, the real cases to pay attention to deal with the ability of government to regulate business and the Democrats are playing their base for suckers.

Isn't this the old "the real issue is class!" saw that gets derided here at MeFi?

Those "hot button topics" are things like gay rights or minority voting rights, things that the Court has ruled on quite recently and which the make up of the Court demonstrably affects. Gay marriage, for example, only survived by the grace of Kennedy. A conservative majority would have shut it down. Similarly, the Voting Rights Act was gutted by the Court conservatives in 2013, a liberal majority would have saved it.

Are these not real concerns? Does nothing matter in the face of the One True Cause of business regulation?

Besides, the objection is pure nonsense: Citizens United was 5-4 lead by the conservatives with none of Obama's appointees joining. A liberal majority court wouldn't have struck the law down. The current business-friendly crusade is being lead by Roberts and the conservatives and has nothing to do with Obama.

Had there been an extra liberal on the Court, none of the decisions you lament would have happened. That's what's at stake, and that's what can be secured for the next several decades if a Democrat wins.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [26 favorites]


My mom's drunk neighbor is over and is insisting that Clinton will pick Sanders or Warren as his VP and wants to bet money that he's right. This will be the easiest $5 I've ever won.
posted by mostly vowels at 6:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


In any ordinary election cycle Kasich would seem as terrible as he actually is. He only seems vaguely human when compared to Trump and Cruz.
posted by octothorpe at 6:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


Well whoever wins, it looks like toast with jam for breakfast tomorrow, Victor.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 6:43 PM on March 15, 2016


This will be the easiest $5 I've ever won.

$5 dollars? Shit, I'd put down 5 large for a bet like that.
posted by windbox at 6:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


(Kasich as compromise contested convention candidate is insanity mostly because nobody's actually voting for him thus far, basically, but the other options are so unpleasant as to make it seem somehow viable. Which, again, does not bode well for the GOP in the general election.)
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Bistle: Oh good, Will Wheaton weighed in. It's a good night for the misogynists.

Wait, what? He seems like an alright guy, openly talking about his depression and all that. What did I miss?
posted by bluecore at 6:45 PM on March 15, 2016


ABC/NBC calling Illinois for Trump.
posted by thefoxgod at 6:45 PM on March 15, 2016


Shaping up to be another good night for Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

Yeah, it's impossible that normal, regular people want her to be President.


The comment is not about who favors her, but who she favors.
posted by tzikeh at 6:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [29 favorites]


Rubio suspends his campaign, according to TV news break-in. Hmph.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:47 PM on March 15, 2016


I hate Illinois Nazis.
posted by Sangermaine at 6:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


Lincoln rolls over in his grave again.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:47 PM on March 15, 2016


lol maddow, "They're looking for more flags."
posted by Drinky Die at 6:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Good lord, Ted Cruz is almost incomprehensibly vile. I fear him even more than President Trump. Who would have thought Calgary could produce a politician more reprehensible than Stephen Harper? I really wish Mayor Naheed Nenshi would give him a key to the city or something to remind his cretinous base that he was born outside of the country, and also the association with a Moozlim furriner politician might do a little extra splash damage.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 6:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Watch an episode of his board game show involving women /derail.
posted by Bistle at 6:48 PM on March 15, 2016


Does anyone else suspect that, for all the bluster and bullshit, when (if) Trump wins the GOP nomination the party falls in line and supports him anyway?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


The more I listen to Kasich mention the "mentally ill" in every debate and speech, the more I realize how condescending it is. I do think he legitimately believes government should do more to help those with mental illness, which is on the whole a good thing, but he brings it up because he believes the mentally ill are the people with a "legitimate" reason to need government help, rather than everyone else who doesn't have a GOP-approved excuse for their poverty, hunger, etc... and therefore must be lazy and undeserving.

Kasich's references to the "mentally ill" are his form of "compassionate conservatism": don't worry, we'll still cut everything, but we'll have something for the crazy people.

Of course, the Clintons aren't immune here either.
posted by zachlipton at 6:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Does anyone else suspect that, for all the bluster and bullshit, when (if) Trump wins the GOP nomination the party falls in line and supports him anyway?

Almost no doubt in my mind.
posted by dhens at 6:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Does anyone else suspect that, for all the bluster and bullshit, when (if) Trump wins the GOP nomination the party falls in line and supports him anyway?

Like all authoritarians, they can be relied on to fall in line once a convincing strongman can be identified.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 6:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My mom's drunk neighbor is over and is insisting that Clinton will pick Sanders or Warren as his VP and wants to bet money that he's right. This will be the easiest $5 I've ever won.

Yeah I would not bet on Sanders. Loyalty is a big deal for the Clintons, they aren't giving the nod to an independent who challenged her in the primary. Warren I don't think would want it.
posted by Drinky Die at 6:51 PM on March 15, 2016


$5 dollars? Shit, I'd put down 5 large for a bet like that.

I'm so confident that he's wrong that I told him I'd raise him $50 and donate it all to Planned Parenthood but he chickened out on raising the stakes that high.
posted by mostly vowels at 6:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Watch an episode of his board game show invoking women /derail.

Do you have a specific episode in mind? I remember seeing one with Felicia Day in it and they all seem to be friendly with and respectful of one another whilst having fun playing games.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 6:51 PM on March 15, 2016


Shaping up to be another good night for Wall Street and the military industrial complex.

Yeah, it's impossible that normal, regular people want her to be President.

The comment is not about who favors her, but who she favors.


So people who vote for her don't understand their own choices?

Personally I was really interested in what Sanders had to say, but there doesn't seem to be very much of it. The revolution didn't happen, and he didn't pivot from that strategy at all. That doesn't give me faith that someone can be a good President. He doesn't seem that great on women or minorities in practice. There are a lot of issues that pushed me over that line to Clinton, but I think I can think about these things on my own.
posted by zutalors! at 6:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Wil Wheaton ‏@wilw 22m22 minutes ago

Shaping up to be another good night for Wall Street and the military industrial complex.
posted by Trochanter at 6:38 PM on March 15 [4 favorites +] [!]


Wow, so much for "We're supposed to be in this together." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by FJT at 6:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


Does anyone else suspect that, for all the bluster and bullshit, when (if) Trump wins the GOP nomination the party falls in line and supports him anyway?

Oh, absolutely, though I wouldn't think as much if the D were almost anyone but Hillary. You can't spend literally decades demonizing the Clintons as the end times and then suddenly pivot to even a marginal admission that they may not destroy the country. They're stuck with Trump. As you reap, so shall you etc etc
posted by youarenothere at 6:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Bistle: Oh good, Will Wheaton weighed in. It's a good night for the misogynists.

Wait, what? He seems like an alright guy, openly talking about his depression and all that. What did I miss?


I don't know much about Wheaton or his views, but he did write a column titled Hillary Clinton, the psycho ex-girlfriend of the democratic party

That title was the title of a Reddit post criticizing Hillary for not cedeing the race to Obama quickly enough, which he quotes, saying he's finding solace in humor. He then adds an update:

"Update: Here, let me try this one more time for the humorless and professional victims out there, who seem to have shown up in a flood today: Gender, race, sexual orientation, things that make us different that we don't choose . . . they just don't matter to me. At all. People are people and identity politics is stupid."
posted by pocketfullofrye at 6:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Not electing Trump isn't going to do jack shit to address the resurgence of increasingly violent racism in this country. Whatever you think of her candidacy, Clinton's hyper-partisan campaign compels all the enthusiasm and broad appeal of a damp towel.

Our best hope to save this country from itself is the sort of enthusiastic pro-diversity populism best exemplified by Sanders' campaign. Without that force in the election cycle I expect things will get vastly more terrifying than anything we've seen yet.

Maybe somehow the energy persists without a path to the nomination but I don't see how. If all that hopefulness skitters away into the shadowy wood I'm going in after it; I don't want to watch the first protestor to die at a Trump rally and I don't want to watch Trump turn my generation into an image of anti-speech extremism like he's already beginning to do.

No one I know wants to vote for the way things are. The alternative is to vote for chaos. This is all completely horrifying.
posted by an animate objects at 6:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


>Bistle: Oh good, Will Wheaton weighed in. It's a good night for the misogynists.

Wait, what? He seems like an alright guy, openly talking about his depression and all that. What did I miss?


It's just this thing people on the Left do if a generally okay person may not be sufficiently politically correct catholic.
posted by My Dad at 6:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Wow, so much for "We're supposed to be in this together." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah, the Sanders' supporters "losing" feels like gloating.
posted by zutalors! at 6:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can we PLEASE keep the Bernie/Hillary infighting to one of the billion other threads?
posted by lalex at 6:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [15 favorites]


As much as respectable conservatives dislike Trump, they hate Hillary with the heat of a thousand suns and would totally fall in line and support him.
posted by octothorpe at 6:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


From Kasich's speech:
“We’ve got one more trip around Ohio this coming fall, when we will beat Hillary Clinton.”
Uhhh, my man, you coming to the convention or nah?
posted by mhum at 6:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Update: Trump DID mention Northern Mariana Islands.
posted by dhens at 6:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Here's one, listen to the first 30 seconds. Now let the wheaton thing die please.
posted by Bistle at 6:57 PM on March 15, 2016


Trump bragging about his Northern Marianas Islands victory more than any state is my genuinely favorite thing he's ever done
posted by theodolite at 6:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Trump is starting with a shoutout to the Northern Mariana Islands, thanking the governor by name. His supporters are going to be so confused.
posted by zachlipton at 6:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Whoa, hey, can y'all not quote me, twice now, in regard to something someone else on the Internet said. Because that's not cool.
posted by Ruki at 6:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Oh good, Trump is talking.
posted by cooker girl at 6:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trump bragging about his Northern Marianas Islands victory more than any state is my genuinely favorite thing he's ever done

Yeah, I was gonna say the same thing. He was really genuinely grateful.
posted by Drinky Die at 6:59 PM on March 15, 2016


NC also called for Trump. Missouri still kind of close between Trump and Cruz.
posted by thefoxgod at 6:59 PM on March 15, 2016


"They don't understand basic math...there are four of us." I want to hear Trump explain Arrow's Theorem.
posted by Ralston McTodd at 6:59 PM on March 15, 2016


Oh good, Trump is talking.

Damn it, you just blew up my sarcasm detector. Too dry!
posted by Drinky Die at 6:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


If I was drinking shots whenever Trump says "Amazing," I'd be drunk already.
posted by cooker girl at 6:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


So, if he tells corporations they have to come back to the US to make their products, doesn't that sound like Communism or Socialism or something OTHER than capitalism?
posted by cooker girl at 7:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


There was hardly any GOP advertising in Illinois until seriously the night before the election when suddenly everything was wall-to-wall Cruz (how many Supergirl viewers are going to vote Cruz, really?). I'm not sure anyone thought they could contest it until it was too late to contest it; Kasich has had a surprisingly strong showing but had zero ground game here.

The poll showing Bernie ahead in Illinois was an online-only poll; all the more traditional polls were showing a result closer to what seems to be coming in. So while it seemed pretty clear there was a Bernie surge, I was skeptical of his ability to win Illinois based on the online-only poll and I think a lot of his supporters didn't realize the poll was online-only, I feel bad seeing them disappointed. However, I've been really surprised by the strength of his showing downstate -- not just in college towns! -- and hopefully my fellow downstate progressives are already gearing up to grab those people. (Because, I mean, really, as a downstate progressive who's active in local politics, I am seriously surprised by the depth of Sanders' support and I see some serious party development waiting to happen.)

(Most of the statehouse primary races have been breaking the way I hoped, too, so yay for that!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Trump has never been a free trade ideologue. He's made a lot of speeches about protectionism.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Trump has been running on an anti-free-market platform since day 1. It's one of the main reasons doctors the GOP hates him, along with breaking all their dog whistles in half
posted by theodolite at 7:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


MSNBC just explained why IL is still too close to call - apparently the Cook County/Chicago vote is nearly all reported already but there are a lot of votes left to count in Champaign and more rural counties that are going for Sanders, so he could still make up the difference. Looks like he's doing well in Missouri, too, widening his lead up to four points over the last hour or so. The exit polls for IL and MO show very strong youth turnout, but Ohio, not so much (though it continues to narrow there too - he's made up about 15 points over the last hour-ish).

Sanders did much better than he was doing in the south with non-white voters in IL and MO, splitting Latino voters 49-50 with Clinton and earning 30% of Black votes in IL. In MO, he got 33% of Black voters and 39% of non-white voters (too small of a sample size to break out Latinos separately).
posted by dialetheia at 7:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


If I was drinking shots whenever Trump says "Amazing," I'd be drunk already.

"Don't cry for me, I'm already dead."
posted by notyou at 7:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


"Sarah Palin, everybody loves her..."

OMG I CAN'T EVEN
posted by cooker girl at 7:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


The more I listen to Kasich mention the "mentally ill" in every debate and speech, the more I realize how condescending it is.

Kasich is the guy who "means well", with all the positive and negative things which that expression imply. This puts him well ahead of lots of his peers, unfortunately.
posted by Slothrup at 7:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




Does anyone else suspect that, for all the bluster and bullshit, when (if) Trump wins the GOP nomination the party falls in line and supports him anyway?

It's possible, but I think too many bridges have been publicly burnt, and that Serious Republicans know that he'd be downticket poison. The calculus now in GOP circles has to be damage control, and I think this year is so wacky that they could end up flopping either way. Or more characteristically of the GOP in the past decade, a whole bunch of different ways.

I very much not hope they don't fall in line, because I think that blowing up and refactoring the GOP (and/or establishing a viable traditional-conservative third party) could be the best thing for democracy in America going forward. That may happen whether or not they bend the knee to Trump -- but we shall see.

And if I'm honest, the entertainment value of watching the GOP tear itself apart, knowing it increases a) the chances of a Democratic win in the general, b) the chances of something potentially more rational than the current GOP rising from the ashes and c) seeing Trump humiliated, something he just can't bear, well, that is not an insignificant factor for me.

On the other hand, this: Not electing Trump isn't going to do jack shit to address the resurgence of increasingly violent racism in this country.

Evil forces are being further mainstreamed by the very fact of Trump's success thus far, and that's going to get worse before it gets better, I think, regardless of whether he's defeated or not.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


It's pretty fricking close in Illinois.
posted by Trochanter at 7:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


And it's a weird map in Illinois. I've honestly never seen one quite like it, very hard to call.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I thought there'd be great entertainment value in watching the Republican party tear itself apart, but turns out, it just makes me sick to my stomach to see a man who literally wants to ban muslims from entering the country win any kind of election, even just a primary.
posted by skewed at 7:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]



Looks like the Drumpfstaffel are ready to go.


That's chilling.
posted by zutalors! at 7:09 PM on March 15, 2016


Talez: "Looks like the Drumpfstaffel are ready to go."

Holy shit. Is that real?
posted by octothorpe at 7:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]



Her speech is like HERE'S ALL MY STUFF

Well, Bernie's stuff. Which is fine. Whichever way the wind blows.


I went back the other day and read both their announcement speeches. Hers happened roughly 2.5 weeks after his. Hers is more flowery and rhetorical, his is more an outline of his positions. They are shockingly similar in priorities. Neither of them mentions criminal justice. They both mention Lily Ledbetter but she calls out women of color specifically.

If you dislike and mistrust Clinton you won't believe she means anything in her speech, but she was talking about a lot of the things Bernie was right from the start.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 7:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [27 favorites]


Nobody in the HISTORY OF POLITICS! Has had the kind of negative reporting that Trump has endured.
posted by cooker girl at 7:11 PM on March 15, 2016


I feel like a French voter in the second round of the 2002 presidential elections there, when somewhat unpopular and corrupt incumbent Jacques Chirac faced Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front in the runoff. The unofficial slogan of the people who supported Chirac in the second round was "mieux vaut l'escroc que le facho" -- "better the crook than the fascist." If Hillary wins the primaries, I'll vote for her.
posted by dhens at 7:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Yes, they're telling people to call the police if they see people who mentioned protesting on twitter.

How much do you expect them to just call the police on these folks anyway?
posted by zutalors! at 7:12 PM on March 15, 2016


Looks like the Drumpfstaffel are ready to go.

They should call themselves the Blue Shirts: just regular blue collar people coming together to stand up for America.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Nobody in the HISTORY OF POLITICS! Has had the kind of negative reporting free press that Trump has endured been gifted.
posted by Slothrup at 7:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Lastly, boy Trump sure likes the second amendment but isn't too keen on the first.
posted by cooker girl at 7:14 PM on March 15, 2016


Holy shit. Is that real?

Move over Haile, Trump is the true lion of Judah.
posted by ennui.bz at 7:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yeah, it's impossible that normal, regular people want her to be President.

It's certainly possible. It's just that normal, regular people aren't her constituents. Her real constituents are her friends from the Board of Directors who gave her all that money.

If she cared about everyone, everyone would be getting healthcare.
posted by mikelieman at 7:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


That was quite the give no fucks speech. I think he's accomplished all he wanted from this run and the rest will just be gravy for him.
posted by Drinky Die at 7:15 PM on March 15, 2016


This is actually the first time I've watched a Trump speech from start to finish.

I feel like I need a shower now.
posted by cooker girl at 7:15 PM on March 15, 2016


I thought there'd be great entertainment value in watching the Republican party tear itself apart, but turns out, it just makes me sick to my stomach to see a man who literally wants to ban muslims from entering the country win any kind of election, even just a primary.

I don't disagree. It's horrifying to watch, and utterly depressing to think about. But I can't vote in America, I can't handle sustained rage and I'm not a griever, so for me, at least, laughing is the only emotional reaction that's left to keep me from losing my freaking mind. And I think there's still a glimmer of hope that all of this, painful as it is to watch from afar and even more painful as it must be to undergo as an American citizen, will make a America a better nation, eventually.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


If she cared about everyone, everyone would be getting healthcare.

You are a poor student of history if you think Hillary Clinton is the reason we don't have and can't get universal healthcare.
posted by ThePinkSuperhero at 7:17 PM on March 15, 2016 [68 favorites]



If she cared about everyone, everyone would have healthcare.


this is a very weird comment given how she fought for this in the 90s.

But hey, agree to disagree. Like I said, I was really listening to Sanders but didn't hear much of substance for me, and the constant, nasty condescension for Hillary and her supporters, many of whom are minority women, is just really unnecessary. I'm asking for basic respect that Clinton voters can think for themselves.
posted by zutalors! at 7:17 PM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


Come November either the Democrat or Republican nominee will be taking the White House, and for a huge number of people who that person is will make a world of difference.

The next president of the United States is (almost certainly) going to be Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. Granted, not a choice between ideal candidates, but a choice that will likely have a huge impact on the direction of the country.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's certainly possible. It's just that normal, regular people aren't her constituents. Her real constituents are her friends from the Board of Directors who gave her all that money.

All in this together, everyone! Don't spike the ball, Clinton supporters!
posted by Sangermaine at 7:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]



Talez: "Looks like the Drumpfstaffel are ready to go."

Holy shit. Is that real?


Of course the Weimaring of 2016 would start with a twitter page. But the Drumpfstaffel seem like lambs after all:
Lions Guard does not support confrontation and brawling. There is no need to escalate into fights as long as the forces of order uphold the law against these marauders. Find these braggarts online, expose them to fellow Trump followers, and if you see them in a rally inform security. The Secret Service and Trump’s security is well paid to handle these threats once exposed.
So basically, GamerGate?
posted by dis_integration at 7:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


>You are a poor student of history if you think Hillary Clinton is the reason we don't have and can't get universal healthcare.

Agreed, but to be fair, she's refusing to fight for it this time around.
posted by zug at 7:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


[Folks, the Bernie vs. Hillary stuff, or framing your argument in terms of the moral obligations of voters, need to stop. Thanks.]
posted by restless_nomad at 7:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


So I keep checking the four big Ohio counties and very few precincts seem to have fully reported back yet. I will be surprised if Clinton maintains such a wide lead as the night goes on.
posted by mostly vowels at 7:20 PM on March 15, 2016


Hey, so, the race isn't over yet, but this is kind of an emotional night for me and family. I've mentioned before that I'm really close to the Sanders campaign, and honestly I think I've been wanting him to do well just so no one I know has to think about what their next step is. That day hasn't come and shouldn't come until the convention, but it does feel a little more real tonight.

So with that in mind, thanks for the calls for civility, and thanks for taking those calls seriously. It's really personal to some of us, and I don't mean just me.

Also, echoing the big shoutout to dialetheia for being awesome.
posted by teponaztli at 7:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


Of course the Weimaring of 2016 would start with a twitter page. But the Drumpfstaffel seem like lambs after all:

Well, of course they're not going to openly say "crack some skulls!" They'll maintain an official stance of non-violence while lamenting how unfortunate it is that members keep getting overenthusiastic and beating people up.
posted by Sangermaine at 7:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Three times now. Please, stop it. I don't appreciate my words being used this way. It's really the opposite of what I said.
posted by Ruki at 7:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


And it's a weird map in Illinois. I've honestly never seen one quite like it, very hard to call.

It doesn't look too different to the MI map to me, rural counties leaning to Sanders with strong Sanders support in college towns, the metropolis leaning to Clinton.

What strikes me as odd is how much more Ohio looks to be leaning toward Clinton. I'm not sure what to make of that, it looks like Michigan had a pretty uniform swing to Sanders when compared to its Midwestern siblings and I'm not sure why that would be.

Maybe the MI results reflect moderate Republicans pulling a Dem ballot as protest votes against Rick Snyder? That could actually explain why Sanders had higher proportions of the Democratic vote in more conservative areas (Western Michigan).
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:21 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He'll continue to rack up delegates and win states through to the convention.

I hope not. It's fine with me if he stays in until Clinton gets enough delegates to get the nomination (preferably excluding superdelegates), but he should withdraw shortly after that. (I'm pulling for Clinton in this election, but I said the same thing about her in 2008.) I think she'll get enough delegates before the convention.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


So with that in mind, thanks for the calls for civility, and thanks for taking those calls seriously.

OK, on preview I guess you can read that more like one of those "thanks for not smoking" signs.
posted by teponaztli at 7:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I hope not. It's fine with me if he stays in until Clinton gets enough delegates to get the nomination (preferably excluding superdelegates), but he should withdraw shortly after that.

He's said many, many times that he is taking it to the convention and campaigning in every state.
posted by dialetheia at 7:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Universal Coverage should be a political goal of Democrats. However it's not entirely apparent this was a referendum on that but a desire to select the most electable candidate possible. The exit polling across all 5 states today had Democrats seeing Hillary as the more electable candidate by a wide margin.

Progressives should be happy with the results that Sanders has been able to generate but let's be honest the attacks on Clinton from the left need to stop because she's going to the be candidate in the General Election and for better or worse progressives if they truly believe in progressive values (rather than just being anti-establishment) need to support the candidate most likely to actually provide some level of progressive policymaking and right now Clinton looks vastly superior to Der Furor.
posted by vuron at 7:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


ahhh I wish there were a more granular source of results for Illinois!
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:28 PM on March 15, 2016


Wait, the Lion Guard? Like from Disney Junior?

I look forward to hearing what Doc McStuffins has to say about his health care plan.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


campaigning in every state.

(Overseas US territories look downcast, begin to slowly walk away and one kicks a pebble)
posted by FJT at 7:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I hope not. It's fine with me if he stays in until Clinton gets enough delegates to get the nomination (preferably excluding superdelegates), but he should withdraw shortly after that.

Why? He's not just doing this for the nomination, he's doing this to get progressive issues pushed further into the light. Best way to do that is to keep talking and canvassing. It's not like he won't have plenty of time to help her in the general if she gets the nomination (admittedly, that's looking significantly more like when now). He's made statements on this for months now, there's no compelling reason to break them.
posted by AdamCSnider at 7:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Universal Coverage should be a political goal of Democrats.

Both candidates support universal coverage. Hillary doesn't support single-payer, Bernie does. But many countries have universal coverage without single payer. (I am also a pro-UC, anti-single-payer proponent).
posted by thefoxgod at 7:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


let's be honest the attacks on Clinton from the left need to stop because she's going to the be candidate in the General Election

I don't think there have been many attacks in this race from the left. Criticisms, yes, but not attacks. Maybe people in the darker reaches of the internet are saying things that qualify as attacks, but pointing out that Clinton is tight with Henry "Carpet-bomb" Kissinger is not an attack.

In any case, why are people supposed to just stop criticizing her on the left because she's wrapped up the nomination? It's democracy. I voted Obama, and continued to criticize him from the left. If you want a candidate, or an official, to move in your direction, you criticize them.

And anyway, the GOP doesn't need or want help from the left in criticizing Clinton. They've got a playbook, they're going to use it no matter what we say.

I won't shut up about the flaws of any candidate or public official, ever. Least of all the one that's most likely to be in power!
posted by dis_integration at 7:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [28 favorites]


"Attacks" from the left is the only thing keeping Clinton honest. The legacy of the New Democrats is one of triangulation and concession. The fact this Sanders campaign has finally been able to exert significant political pressure on the centre from the left rather than the right is the best thing to have happened to progressive politics in the US in a long time. Calling for that to end in the name of furthering left politics makes no sense.
posted by dustyasymptotes at 7:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [45 favorites]


And honestly, you can have your cake and eat it too. If anything, if Clinton proves to be another centrist neoliberal in power, you can rally against her administration and primary her in 2020. It's just that simple.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


"ahhh I wish there were a more granular source of results for Illinois!"

You will have to do it by hand, but you can go pretty granular by going through to counties here: http://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionAuthorities/ElecAuthorityList.aspx Most counties will update PDFs with new totals as new precinct reports come in.

Based on the outstanding precincts, I don't think Bernie quite has the space to win it, I think it'll come in about 51/48 for Hillary, but, like I said, a lot of people are surprised by the support for him in (non-college-town) downstate areas, so it's possible. I just don't think there's quite the space unless those outstanding precincts are unusually strong compared to already-reporting nearby precincts. But some of those are in parts of the state where I don't pay a lot of attention to elections so I don't know their maps as well, and some of them are in places that didn't have hot statehouse races to help drive results, so it's possible.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


soooo, anyway, to talk about the elections tonight: Cruz is .6% down in Missouri with 53% of precincts reporting.
posted by skewed at 7:37 PM on March 15, 2016



I won't shut up about the flaws of any candidate or public official, ever. Least of all the one that's most likely to be in power!


Yeah, I think Obama is a great President but drones, Snowden, now encryption...boo.

I don't see any downside to dissent.
posted by zutalors! at 7:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


It looks most of DuPage County is still out, and I could see that being strong for Bernie. I assume that Illinois will be a functional tie, although the media always makes it sound like the big deal is the winner.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:40 PM on March 15, 2016


Fiorina introducing Cruz. Thank you for muting her in favor of commercials MSNBC.
posted by Drinky Die at 7:40 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


There is always going to be some new horror from the Republican side, Sangermaine, not a good reason to endorse Clinton's Third Way bullshit.

Yes, I'd expect the Republican party itself to fall into line and support the Trump loony parade, Ray Walston, but the Republican voters should remain fairly divided. I'd wager Clinton beats him relatively easily.

In 2020, there are respectable odds that (a) the Koch brothers find someone with broader right-wing appeal, and (b) America is really really sick of Clinton, her corporate masters, and this Third Way crap, giving reasonable odds that some Koch goon like Shrub holds the presidency for the 2020s.

I'd love it if the Republican party somehow shredded itself, like the Whigs did in 1854, making way for some larger realignment, or even political reforms to end the two party system. Initially, I'd hopped that Trump might indicate this coming along, but now I think the Koch machine can hold them together through shear financing.
posted by jeffburdges at 7:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


On the eve of another strong night for Trump and Clinton, I remain unsure why I keep seeing calls here and elsewhere to stop arguing about Clinton vs Sanders. The whole point of a primary is to have a months-long debate about a complex and evolving contest of ideas, not just a series of sporting-events where people discuss polls and vote margins. Nor is it that we've "already" done it, in the sense that new information is constantly appearing, and I for one learn a huge amount every week about the candidates, the history of American politics, various past and proposed bills and policies, foreign events, and lots more. Sanders and Clinton supporters here regularly post new information, new insights, new arguments, and new events that affect my views of the race. I don't know why I'm supposed to hate all this either -- it's interesting and really, really important! And I hope we don't have to stop tomorrow as Clinton moves closer to the prohibitive favorite. It's a huge boon for democracy to continue to debate these issues, and there are far, far more of them then even the vast community here or in the Democratic party could exhaust in a decade, let along a few months. This impatience to get it all over with seems to presume that information and beliefs never change, and it's just beating each other about the head. But the first-hand reports from dozens of people here -- and presumably hundreds of lurkers -- says otherwise. We're all still learning through this contest. I hope we don't have to give it up, or relegate it to unpopulated corners of the internet, as things continue. Trump may make the difference between Clinton and Sanders look small, and delegate math may make the outcome foregone, but the beautiful and complex arguments of politics are never exhausted, never a waste of time, and never already done. I hope we can keep it up, because I for one think it's great.
posted by chortly at 7:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [22 favorites]


(Also we had exciting tornadoes in Illinois tonight which is delaying some of the downstate reporting in areas that were hit, and at least a few precincts lost power right after voting closed and had to wait to count. And local news reports are all-tornado, no-election, which means even when the counties are reporting the news is slow to push it out.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh god with Rubio out I don't know what to do in the primary anymore.
posted by corb at 7:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I think some Clinton supporters are kinda miffed that Bernie continues to hit at Clinton with personal attacks in his speech tonight when the reality is that he's effectively lost. I'm beginning to really wonder what message he's really trying to send because I can understand tilting at windmills but I'm not a big fan of personalizing Hillary as the personification of everything bad in politics.

I'd really like to see a post-mortem on Sanders campaign after this election cycle because there was definitely a lot of things that they did right but there was a lot of things that went really poorly for them. I kinda wonder if Sanders and Tad Devine just weren't really prepared for the groundswell of progressive support and really didn't develop comprehensive messaging until way way too late.

Personally I think a lot of the blame probably lies at Devine's feet (his track record with political campaigns is mediocre at best) but increasingly I've had concerns about just how negative the attacks have been on Hillary via proxies. It hasn't seemed like an attempt to strengthen the party.
posted by vuron at 7:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


while not actually voting for Trump, would effectively be voting for him

that's not how voting works
posted by Greg Nog at 7:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


ugh how did I miss Bernie speaking? I've been parked on MSNBC and CNN while posting I mean working on this presentation
posted by zutalors! at 7:46 PM on March 15, 2016


It's pretty foolhardy to place your trust on one person, anyway. If Trump was to drop out of the race tomorrow, he gets bored of it and declares it was a joke and declares mission accomplished in having ground Jeb's career into dust (and others'), their movement would be completely be in disarray. The anger and the discontent would still be there, but their ideals would have no one to cling to. Vicious anti-immigration policies would be once again in the hands of lip servicers and the Tom Tancredo marginal types, with no actual political way to getting enacted.

It shouldn't be so with what Sanders stands for. So what if his candidacy fails. There must be another apparatus to link his ideals to. A generation of progressive politicians at every government level to elect, a mass movement organized with the same clarity and focus that Sanders has brought us. And even if he wins, how would we keep him from making the same compromises every other Democrat has made in the last fifty years?

The movement must survive the man. Progressives must prepare to dig in for a long war.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


Ugh god I can't stand the thought that Ted Cruz is even still in this. Not that I prefer Trump. I just listen to Cruz and feel deeply scared. He sends a chill down my spine.
posted by sallybrown at 7:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


I feel like there's going to be a musical based on the Rubio story "Son of a bartender, son of a maid..."
posted by zutalors! at 7:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I just listen to Cruz and feel deeply scared. He sends a chill down my spine.

I really just think about how he ate that booger on stage.
posted by zutalors! at 7:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Sign on to the Trumpocalypse Corb. He'll crash and burn in the General election and maybe your base will have to wake up to the fact that White Males no longer get to rule the world and they'll pivot back towards being moderately progressive on social issues like they were in the good old days of Eisenhower.
posted by vuron at 7:48 PM on March 15, 2016


Sanders doesn't care at all about the party. He's only been in the party for about 15 minutes, and he did that with great reluctance. He wanted to run in the Democratic primary as an independent. He literally could not care less about what happens to the Democratic party.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


NYT now has Cruz in the lead in Missouri. I mean it's Evil vs Evil, but any loss for Trump is a victory for... something... at this stage.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Cruz just took the (tiny) lead in Missouri!
posted by Weeping_angel at 7:49 PM on March 15, 2016


Oh god with Rubio out I don't know what to do in the primary anymore.

If I were a Republican I would lie down and cry a little. No, a lot. But why can't you get behind Kasich? Sure, he'll never win in a straight delegate race, but if he's still in it he must think that there's still some game to be played at the convention. I'm surprised Rubio bowed out too. At this point, why not go all the way to Cleveland and see what happens? Except that campaigning must suck.
posted by dis_integration at 7:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He literally could not care less about what happens to the Democratic party.

He doesn't matter. His followers do. His ideals do.
posted by Apocryphon at 7:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


ugh how did I miss Bernie speaking? I've been parked on MSNBC and CNN while posting I mean working on this presentation

Did he? I missed it too. I was assuming he was waiting to see if he could pull off a win tonight first.

Oh god with Rubio out I don't know what to do in the primary anymore.


I mean you're pretty stuck. Kasich is the least dangerous Republican left, Cruz is probably the best bet to stop Trump but...he's Ted Cruz.
posted by Drinky Die at 7:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Never mind, they counted a couple more votes, I guess.
posted by Weeping_angel at 7:50 PM on March 15, 2016


Sanders doesn't care at all about the party. He's only been in the party for about 15 minutes, and he did that with great reluctance. He wanted to run in the Democratic primary as an independent. He literally could not care less about what happens to the Democratic party.

This is pretty unfair, given that he's caucused as a Democrat for his entire career.
posted by dialetheia at 7:50 PM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


Drinky Die, looks like a comment mentioned Bernie speaking but it does seem impossible to have missed it, since I have been watching CNN and MSNBC I mean working on this presentation
posted by zutalors! at 7:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


ugh how did I miss Bernie speaking? I've been parked on MSNBC and CNN while posting I mean working on this presentation

All Three Networks Ignored Bernie Sanders' Speech Tuesday Night, 'Standing By For Trump' (contains a link to the full speech on cspan)
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 7:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


I'm surprised Rubio bowed out too. At this point, why not go all the way to Cleveland and see what happens? Except that campaigning must suck.

Imagine getting on a debate stage with a guy who calls you "Little Marco" who just crushed you in a landslide in your own state. Yeah, I would drop out too.
posted by Drinky Die at 7:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Fuck you Ted Cruz. The only reason my son and his girlfriend have health care is because of Obamacare. You want to take that away?
posted by octothorpe at 7:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Cruz yacking on MSNBC a few minutes ago. Is it me, or does this guy look like the love child of Joseph McCarthy and Ayn Rand? Just couldn't resist.

Two conservative peas in a pod...
posted by WinstonJulia at 7:53 PM on March 15, 2016


There are a lot of policy positions which Clinton espouses that I deplore, but I'm still going to vote for her in the general because voting for president mostly involves choosing the least bad person. Clinton is certainly the only Republican I'd be happy to vote for in this presidential election, as a leftist. She's part of the power elite, sure, but she's progressive in some areas and would probably be a decent president.

There is more than one public office that counts. Unless you're active (voting, at least) at the state and local levels in politics, it's rather silly to complain about what an awful candidate Clinton is and how little she values the policy endeavors you want put in place. Sanders will (almost certainly) not be the nominee, but the federal executive branch is only one lever of power, albeit an important one.

If one supposes that we're going to have to choose between an old-fashioned Republican with a neoliberal twist and a vapid plutocrat (in Clinton and Trump respectively) simply because Sanders was robbed, and not because the traditional strongholds and institutions of the working class have been smashed and replaced in legislatures throughout every state, in state capitols, and in Congress, the bigger picture is being missed. Even if Sanders were elected, he couldn't unilaterally solve all the problems being created for working people and regular folks, even if we confined our consideration to Congress. Our problems are too deep, too systemic and too diverse in nature to be solved by any president alone, and that fact should be taken seriously if we're doing something other than merely complaining that the world isn't how we think it should be.
posted by clockzero at 7:54 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Can we retroactively change Missouri to a winner-takes-all state?

Not that I really want Trump to be defeated (a contested convention is like someone else said an epic ratfucking and that's pretty anti-democratic not that party conventions are really democratic) because I really want Trump to lose badly in the general election but a contested convention where Trump and his supporters storm out and he runs as a third party candidate would be epically funny.

Clinton in a three way race with and Trump would quite honestly give the Democrats the Senate and getting a Speaker Pelosi again not a completely unlikely event.

Clinton as VP with a Speaker Pelosi and maybe a House Majority leader Schumer would be sooo fucking funny I might have to listen to some talk radio just to hear the meltdown.

posted by vuron at 7:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He literally could not care less about what happens to the Democratic party.

A political party is only valuable to me insofar as it exists to further goals that I care about. The continued existence of the Democratic party in and of itself is not a goal that I care about.
posted by Slothrup at 7:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [27 favorites]


Cruz has to know that many of his claims and promises are absolute bullshit. What a turd.
posted by carmicha at 7:55 PM on March 15, 2016


CRUZ IS SO TERRIBLE
posted by zutalors! at 7:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


that's not how voting works

Except, it does. Cast a vote against, to help the opponent of a truly terrible candidate is like Voting 101.
posted by zarq at 7:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think some Clinton supporters are kinda miffed that Bernie continues to hit at Clinton with personal attacks in his speech tonight when the reality is that he's effectively lost.

What has distinguished Sanders' campaign is his unwillingness to attack Clinton in virtually any way, to say nothing of "personal attacks." I haven't listened to his speech tonight but I would be extremely surprised if there was any of that in there; it would be a radical change of tone for his campaign.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 7:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


Nothing stopped him from running as an independent. He ran as a Democrat to push the party to the left, and so that he would't undermine the eventual Democratic nominee.

I think he originally wanted to run as an independent, but decided to run as a Democrat only in order to get media coverage for things like debates and town halls. At least that's what Politico says.
posted by FJT at 7:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]



A political party is only valuable to me insofar as it exists to further goals that I care about. The continued existence of the Democratic party in and of itself is not a goal that I care about.


I agree, but I think the way our system is set up it's important. Downticket races and all.
posted by zutalors! at 7:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Here's why he literally does care about the Democratic party: he did not and will not run as an independent, so as not to be a spoiler and let the bad guys win.
posted by uosuaq at 7:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


I'm all for criticism of particular stances, but I'm extremely wary of the kind of "burn it all to the ground/it's all rigged" rhetoric I've seen from a handful of my fellow progressives. It's true that things are broken and need to be fixed, but... I, perhaps naively, genuinely believe we can move things in a better direction if we actually focus energy on down ballot races and midterms.

If people are told that the system is rigged and the party is despicable, why on earth would they be motivated to show up to the polls for other races? We need people like Sanders encouraging progressives (particularly young progressives) to get involved in their area (joining unions, voting, campaigning, advocating) so we can build up a progressive power base. Without that base, a progressive presidential candidate, even if they could win, couldn't do much.
posted by SugarAndSass at 7:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


"Carl Diggler" is, as always, amusing.
posted by My Dad at 7:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He literally could not care less about what happens to the Democratic party.

That is flatly untrue. Nothing stopped him from running as an independent, but he ran as a Democrat so he could pull the field of candidates to the left, and do so without undermining the eventual nominee.
posted by teponaztli at 7:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Some good news out of Chicago: Anita Alvarez, State's Attorney for Cook County, who has been widely criticized, lost big.
posted by zachlipton at 7:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


He ran as a Democrat to push the party to the left, and so that he would't undermine the eventual Democratic nominee.
He was explicitly asked whether he was a Democrat last Spring, and he said he was an independent running in the Democratic primary. It was actually kind of a thing among Democrats in Iowa. He has traditionally worked with the Democrats, but it seems to have been pretty important to him to call himself an independent. He felt like he would really debase himself if he formally affiliated himself with the party.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


he ran as a Democrat so he could pull the field of candidates to the left, and do so without undermining the eventual nominee.

I thought he ran to become President.
posted by zutalors! at 7:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Guy on MSNBC talking about his Missouri map, "Sorry it's not broken up by congressional district."

Yes, we can tell because the shapes aren't crazy tortured gerrymandered disasters.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Is there anything creepier than the sight of Ted Cruz saying "We welcome you with open arms"?

Nope. Nopenopenope you stay away from me bad man.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


If people are told that the system is rigged and the party is despicable, why on earth would they be motivated to show up to the polls for other races?

See, but the system is rigged and the party is despicable. That's the main problem, not the rhetoric pointing it out.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


but the system is rigged and the party is despicable

"...so do nothing" makes no sense to me as a response to this.
posted by Miko at 8:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


A party is the way that those goals get promulgated though which is why Sanders ran as a Democrat. Which is why some people kinda feel some complex thoughts about Sanders joining the party in order to run for President. They might like his political stance on some issues but they also get irritated by an "outsider" coming in and telling them they way that Clinton and Obama did it was all wrong.

First past the post elections mandate to formulation of two parties at a given time. A third party is only stable for a very brief period of time as it either gets absorbed by one of the existing parties or it takes over the existing party.

What's kinda interesting is that the current Republican party thought that it had eaten and digested the Dixiecrats but it's looking more and more likely that the Republican party will effectively become the Dixiecrats.

It will be interesting to see if progressives can shape the Democratic party from inside the party structures or if Democrats will just pick and choose progressive positions that poll well.
posted by vuron at 8:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


See, but the system is rigged and the party is despicable. That's the main problem, not the rhetoric pointing it out.

But the party is made up of the people we vote into it. If we elect more progressives in down ballot races, we can change the party.
posted by SugarAndSass at 8:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


A large portion of reliable Democratic voters are not registered Democrats and identify as independents - in fact, more voters identify as independents than Democrats at this point. Alienating those voters by demanding party loyalty and treating independents as persona non grata is not a great look for the party.
posted by dialetheia at 8:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [19 favorites]


"...so do nothing" makes no sense to me as a response to this.

I do agree with that. But, eh, I'm starting to understand it as I get older. There are other ways to focus your energy if you want to make the world a better place that don't involve politics.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


There are a variety of reasons he ran. It is not necessarily a binary.

If he wanted to be a spoiler he would have done what Trump did and threatened to run on a third party ticket. He isn't going to do that as far as I know since I do not have a crystal ball. Though he has stated he won't and I trust he will keep his word.
posted by yertledaturtle at 8:06 PM on March 15, 2016


Think not of Sanders as a deity, so much as the leftist, democratic socialist equivalent of Ron Paul, who ran as a Libertarian nominee for president in 1988. They're both idealists beloved by the Internet, who used a major party as a vehicle for their own ambitions to change the system from the top. And even though Rand might have been a quiet echo of his father, the populist minarchism that Ron Paul brought into the national discourse definitely shaped the country to come.

Sanders could likewise indirectly inspire a leftist Tea Party movement. Or better yet, a rebirth of Occupy. That's the opportunity he offers progressives, not just him being the president and fixing everything.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


What's kinda interesting is that the current Republican party thought that it had eaten and digested the Dixiecrats but it's looking more and more likely that the Republican party will effectively become the Dixiecrats.

So the south WILL rise again, only out of the living body of the Republican party, like that stomach monster from Alien. And it will surely kill its host, and hopefully be killed with fire.
posted by dis_integration at 8:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Man, if I had a nickel for every time I've heard Bernie say that Clinton and Obama did everything wrong, I'd have no nickels.
posted by uosuaq at 8:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [29 favorites]


These ruling parties having barred the gates to power to all comers without the guise of a Republican or a Democrat, Donald and Bernie set out to gut the respective parties and wear the skins.

An important fact is that the plurality of voters are not part of either party.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 8:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He doesn't matter. His followers do. His ideals do.

This sounds like a description of a martyr.
posted by OmieWise at 8:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I liked things like Occupy and BLM and Fight for 15 because they were group organizations that didn't/don't have a True Leader and seemed really focused on specific issues. It's the Bernie Is the Way stuff that really turns me off. I feel like everyone just wanted to fold all those issues into Sanders and that bothers me.
posted by zutalors! at 8:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


I keep expecting Chris Hayes to call him Bernie Sandwiches again
posted by zutalors! at 8:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He doesn't matter. His followers do. His ideals do.

This sounds like a description of a martyr.


Just a guy, actually. Call him a point of focus.
posted by Trochanter at 8:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


He felt like he would really debase himself if he formally affiliated himself with the party.

There's a big difference between wanting to be independent of the party structure and not caring about what happens to it. I mean, I don't see how your statement contradicts anything I said. He's been an independent for decades, but he obviously cared enough about the Democratic primary to want to run in it. He's going to keep running for the same purpose, which seems to me very different from not caring about what happens if he's not the nominee.
posted by teponaztli at 8:11 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


And at the time everyone and their mom was complaining that Occupy was leaderless, amorphous, driftless, etc. Damned if we do, damned if we don't.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


Kasich is the least dangerous Republican left, Cruz is probably the best bet to stop Trump but...he's Ted Cruz

I'm pretty committed to getting Trump out of the race, but the best thing I can say about Cruz is that he is Hispanic and his grandmother probably deplores his Spanish as much as mine does.
posted by corb at 8:14 PM on March 15, 2016


There are several reasons the Republicans have won the overton window fight so effectively over the last few decades. Yes of course, the Clintons' simply gave it to them, which helped all the Clintons' own right-wing interests. We cannot blame the Clintons completely for wrecking the overton window though.

In part, I think Republicans have won the overton window by being willing to sabotage the "bad" Republicans, including not just primary challenges, but actually running as independents. We'd have stronger left-wing Democratic candidates if the Greens put up a better fight in more races every year.
posted by jeffburdges at 8:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


And at the time everyone and their mom was complaining that Occupy was leaderless, amorphous, driftless, etc. Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

Yeah, unfortunately we don't have a parliamentary system and we can't vote for platforms. We vote for candidates. So Bernie is The Way, or Hillary is The Way, to get A President. Of course people get excited about the candidate, because we elect the candidate, not the ideas.
posted by dis_integration at 8:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm just so happy with how Clinton did tonight. I wish it would translate into the true narrative: Sanders has no chance at the nomination. I think it's far more important to pivot to the general than it is to send a message to the Democratic party. I really like Sanders' rhetoric, but I am far more afraid of the GOP, and always have been, than I am of the Third Way. I think all one needs to know about the seriousness of the issue here can be seen by the field that the GOP put into play this year. There was not one, not one, who I would feel comfortable with in the least.
posted by OmieWise at 8:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]



This sounds like a description of a martyr.


I remember when this type of rhetorical device was used to describe Obama by his opponents.
posted by yertledaturtle at 8:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


See, but the system is rigged and the party is despicable. That's the main problem, not the rhetoric pointing it out.

Ok, we've more accurately identified the problem. What now? And keep in mind that "Well, once I see the scope of the actual problem I pretty much lose interest in thinking about it further" means the discussion is over and sort of undercuts the ostensible moral seriousness of having identified the real problem in the first place.
posted by clockzero at 8:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


And at the time everyone and their mom was complaining that Occupy was leaderless, amorphous, driftless, etc. Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

I wasn't.
posted by zutalors! at 8:16 PM on March 15, 2016


I liked things like Occupy and BLM and Fight for 15 because they were group organizations that didn't/don't have a True Leader and seemed really focused on specific issues. It's the Bernie Is the Way stuff that really turns me off. I feel like everyone just wanted to fold all those issues into Sanders and that bothers me.

That's understandable but...it's an election. Gotta rally around somebody.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I remember when this type of rhetorical device was used to describe Obama by his opponents.

I wasn't describing him that way, I was replying to a description of him. I believe the description was by a supporter. I don't think you can describe him as basically Obi Wan and then complain when someone points out that's what you've done.
posted by OmieWise at 8:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My point is that I don't see Sanders! as an extension of those issues. So my support for them does not translate into support for Sanders.
posted by zutalors! at 8:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


See, but the system is rigged and the party is despicable. That's the main problem, not the rhetoric pointing it out.

Ok, we've more accurately identified the problem. What now?


Well, I'm a third party voter, so you know my answer. I also know you have very reasonable arguments against that but I do stand by my position.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:18 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I think it's far more important to pivot to the general than it is to send a message to the Democratic party. I really like Sanders' rhetoric, but I am far more afraid of the GOP, and always have been, than I am of the Third Way.

I can only speak for myself, but my support for Sanders is motivated in no small part by my belief that the Democrats are stronger when they aren't trying to undermine their own positions. The whole idea of Sanders pulling people to the left was never based on an assumption that this would weaken them in the general election.
posted by teponaztli at 8:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


50.9% to 48.2% in IL. Gap is closing.
posted by Trochanter at 8:19 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Think not of Sanders as a deity, so much as the leftist, democratic socialist equivalent of Ron Paul, who ran as a Libertarian nominee for president in 1988.

Noooo, he is not Ron Paul. I disagree with this strenuously. He's done far better than Ron Paul ever did.

Sanders' campaign absolutely did grow out of the momentum from activist movements, Occupy in particular - there were regular phonebanking parties for him in Zuccotti Park this week, even, and during Occupy a lot of people actually referred to him as "the Senator from Occupy" because he was one of the only people who was positive about the movement at the time. A great deal of his early support came from Occupy folks. This is one of the first formal coalitions built from leftist activist groups (although I think his coalition has grown much broader than even he would have expected as the campaign has continued), and it's been fantastic to see all the activist movements I've supported throughout the years (anti-Iraq, Occupy, Fight for 15, etc) finally get some recognition in the party, even if the party still treated that movement with much the same hostility as they did most of those activist movements.
posted by dialetheia at 8:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [24 favorites]


Though, for what it's worth, I think BLM and Fight for 15 have been as successful as they have due to lessons learned from Occupy. BLM definitely has leaders, e.g. Deray McKesson who's now running for mayor of Baltimore -- but they've been intentional about not centering around one particular personality. And both BLM and Fight for 15 have worked hard to unify around actionable goals / demands as opposed to Occupy's hyper-democratic, freewheeling structure which rendered it basically unable to express anything resembling a coherent policy ask.

Those are all movements which wanted to influence policy broadly, though. Whereas the Sanders movement has been by definition centered on a particular person who is seeking a particular office.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


And at the time everyone and their mom was complaining that Occupy was leaderless, amorphous, driftless, etc. Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

Well, pretty much all of human politics has been dominated by the conflict between centralists and federalists. Or maybe I'm just thinking of Latin America.

I'm saying that once the election is over, we need to rally around what the person believes in, not just give up hope because that person lost. We need to begin laying down the groundwork so the next great candidate can show up, and this time he or she will be empowered by a stronger political organization.

Does this sound dispensationalist? Maybe a little. But the core of this message is that we don't need a progressive messiah; we need to keep striving even if the savior of the moment loses or sells out.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


My point is that I don't see Sanders! as an extension of those issues. So my support for them does not translate into support for Sanders.

Not an extension of BLM I agree. Of Occupy? I think he clearly took that torch and is running with it with the support of the sort of people who lit it. I would be interested in hearing why you believe differently if you would like to elaborate.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:21 PM on March 15, 2016


Alienating those voters by demanding party loyalty and treating independents as persona non grata is not a great look for the party.

Well, I agree, but if the Party caters to these independents they should show loyalty. It's kind of how it works. Or else what incentive does the Party have to do what the independents want, right?
posted by FJT at 8:23 PM on March 15, 2016


Is there anything creepier than the sight of Ted Cruz saying "We welcome you with open arms"?

There's a meme for that.
posted by My Dad at 8:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Or else what incentive does the Party have to do what the independents want, right?

The incentive is winning elections.
posted by yertledaturtle at 8:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Well, I'm a third party voter, so you know my answer. I also know you have very reasonable arguments against that but I do stand by my position.

I wouldn't argue against that, actually, partially because I suspect we do probably agree on a lot of important issues and I'm tired of critiquing my substantive allies instead of supporting them. What I can't abide is the person who cares enough about power and justice to think critically about politics and take bold public positions, and mostly rhetorical ones, but not quite enough to participate.
posted by clockzero at 8:25 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


Or else what incentive does the Party have to do what the independents want, right?

How about their votes, their money, and their energy? Loyalty doesn't enter into it. And it's going to be an increasingly large problem for Democrats who rely on party loyalty, because fully 48% of millennials are registered independents. Of course they still lean Democratic, and their views are much more liberal even than party faithful for the most part, but party loyalty is an increasingly losing argument in an increasingly independent electorate. People just do not support the party system as much anymore.
posted by dialetheia at 8:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


> Republicans have known for years they can't be fully honest about their agenda -- see Lee Atwater's famous confession about racial dogwhistles, among other things --

> As has been mentioned many, many times before, the current mess the GOP is in has it's roots in Nixon's Southern Strategy.


Related thread.
posted by homunculus at 8:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm a lifelong registered Democrat (while, lifelong starting at 18), but honestly the only thing that keeps me voting (D) is opposition to the Republican party. I think a lot of what looks like party loyalty is really just opposition to a worse alternative.
posted by teponaztli at 8:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]



Not an extension of BLM I agree. Of Occupy? I think he clearly took that torch and is running with it with the support of the sort of people who lit it. I would be interested in hearing why you believe differently if you would like to elaborate.


I said this before, but I would have been more interested if he were further left. I feel like he is running sort of weaksauce left of Hillary and his outreach to minorities and women seems really perfunctory. His campaign just seems like a hodgepodge of things, and his answer to everything seems to be that he'll get his revolution. I think it's one thing for BLM and Occupy people to support a revolution, but for a major Presidential party candidate to do that, and for the revolution to really mean voting for downticket people that he doesn't really ever seem to mention...it just didn't all come together for me.
posted by zutalors! at 8:30 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trochanter: "50.9% to 48.2% in IL. Gap is closing."

When the vote is that close it doesn't really matter who "wins". The delegates will be allocated pretty much the same either way.
posted by octothorpe at 8:31 PM on March 15, 2016



I'm a lifelong registered Democrat (while, lifelong starting at 18), but honestly the only thing that keeps me voting (D) is opposition to the Republican party. I think a lot of what looks like party loyalty is really just opposition to a worse alternative.


I mean, I did that when I voted for Kerry.
posted by zutalors! at 8:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'm saying that once the election is over, we need to rally around what the person believes in, not just give up hope because that person lost.

Absolutely. I'll be voting for Jill Stein this fall as I did four years ago; if I lived in a swing state I would cheerfully vote for Hillary Clinton. Well, not super cheerfully. But resolutely, I guess. I feel that in Illinois, my vote for President is more valuable as a marker to the Democratic Party here that there is space to the left than to help run up their margin of victory.

I will happily be voting for Tammy Duckworth to kick Mark Kirk out of the Senate. Downballot races will be a mix of Green votes and votes for progressive Dems.

I don't identify as a Democrat and my goal in the ballot box isn't to further the Democratic Party's electoral fortunes. I'm happy to help Dems out, though, when things are close and/or when they're running candidates that I think are doing / will do a good job.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [17 favorites]


Huh, funny. My initial reticence to support him was because I find him too much of a leftist for my tastes. Thanks for explaining. I guess his campaign just hit a sweet spot on the left somewhere between how we see the world.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


No problem!
posted by zutalors! at 8:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Interesting conversation by one of my few remaining conservative friends on FB. She linked earlier to a piece in Christianity Today advocating for Christians to vote third-party to avoid the Trump/Hilary choice. One of her conservative friends chimed in that that would just *help* Trump win, while I'm thinking, no, that will actually help Hilary, you might as well vote for her.

Don't know how many conservative Christians will still feel that way in November. Trump is more blatantly religiously illiterate than the rest, but of course I'm sure he'll find surrogates to attest to his religiosity and learn some new catchphrases,
posted by emjaybee at 8:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


When the vote is that close it doesn't really matter who "wins". The delegates will be allocated pretty much the same either way.

Yeah, it's just that they called it for Hillary four hours ago.
posted by Trochanter at 8:33 PM on March 15, 2016


The reality is that the Democratic party feels like it's got a proven winner of a strategy which is keep Whites from voting more than 60-65% Republican and pulling significant majorities with every other demographic.

This is the coalition that won two elections for Obama and looks primed to win an election for Clinton. The people running Clinton's campaign are truly the best and brightest from both Clinton '08 and Obama '08 and '12. These people know how to win elections and they are going to microsegment the electorate and play moneyball (the baseball strategy) with the system until the Republicans can come up with an effective counter.

To think that Democrats were going to wholesale abandon the strategies that got Obama 8 years in office is delusional. Yes Democrats need to improve their messaging vis-a-vis the millenial voter because they are a massive demographic that is going to have a massive impact on politics for decades to come.

Personally I think it's great that so many Millenials are coming out so much for progressive politicians because most research has shown that the political parties you support in your first election tend to influence your voting patterns for the rest of your life and having millenials be overwhelmingly liberal and progressive in their politics is a very good future indeed.

I don't mind if Sanders wants to keep campaigning until the convention but I hope that he'll shift from attacking Clinton to attacking Trump because he's the real enemy.
posted by vuron at 8:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


I mean, I did that when I voted for Kerry.

Ugh, don't remind me...

This is an aside, but true story, I met Kerry not long after the 2004 election and he was the pander-iest panderer I've ever met. He was all "hey man!" with me, and somehow it came up that I play guitar, so then he was all "we should jam sometime!" It was the fakest experience I've ever had, and the whole time I was just thinking "I cannot believe we thought this guy had a chance."
posted by teponaztli at 8:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]


There is a difference between "attacking" (which would be something like pointing out the vast conflicts of interest we're going to start hearing about w/r/t the Clinton Foundation and her time at State) and pointing out facts about her policies. Substantive criticism is fine and I resent the hell out of implications that criticizing Clinton from the left should be off-limits. If you don't like it, fine, don't do it, but people do not have some moral duty to be silent about substantive policy and background differences. His path to the nomination is tough but it's not impossible and I hope he keeps playing to win.
posted by dialetheia at 8:37 PM on March 15, 2016 [35 favorites]


The reality is that the Democratic party feels like it's got a proven winner of a strategy which is keep Whites from voting more than 60-65% Republican and pulling significant majorities with every other demographic.

This is the coalition that won two elections for Obama and looks primed to win an election for Clinton.


I'm glad it "feels" like a proven winner to you, because it "feels" to me like two wins for Obama came after two wins for Bush and a currently-crazy-shitty overly-rightwing congress and an electorate that seems kind of scarily jazzed about the billionaire that wants to build a wall around mexico
posted by Greg Nog at 8:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [11 favorites]


And the crazy thing is that Edwards is that he was so fake that Kerry was creeped out by him. And even crazier, Edwards was pretty populist as far as Democratic front runners went, at least in this generation.
posted by Apocryphon at 8:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Don't know how many conservative Christians will still feel that way in November. Trump is more blatantly religiously illiterate than the rest, but of course I'm sure he'll find surrogates to attest to his religiosity and learn some new catchphrases,

I don't know that the main problem is that he can't speak the evangelical language, it's more that he's been publicly pro-choice for much of his life. If I was Ted Cruz, I would be campaigning on nothing else right now. There is zero reason to trust, from a pro-lifer's perspective, that Trump would use abortion as a litmus test if he was nominating a Justice.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yes Democrats need to improve their messaging vis-a-vis the millenial voter because they are a massive demographic that is going to have a massive impact on politics for decades to come.

They don't need to improve their messaging. They need to improve their policies. Millennials are tired of eating the shit that flows down from Capitol hill into our over-indebted, won't-ever-own-a-home, used-car, still-waiting-tables-at-30 lives.
posted by dis_integration at 8:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [35 favorites]


Kerry for all his faux bro-ness does seem like a pretty awesome Secretary of State. I kind of want him to remain at State assuming Clinton wins in November because he seems like he's got a fuckton of irons in the fire and I'd hate to see them get screwed up for no reason. Plus I can't see anyone else really being a better fit.
posted by vuron at 8:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, it's just that they called it for Hillary four hours ago.

I'm watching MSNBC and they've called FL, NC and OH, but IL has been too close to call all night.
posted by chris24 at 8:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


He was all "hey man!" with me, and somehow it came up that I play guitar, so then he was all "we should jam sometime!" It was the fakest experience I've ever had, and the whole time I was just thinking "I cannot believe we thought this guy had a chance."

So did you end up jamming with Kerry? That sounds like a great awkward time.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [13 favorites]


TFW you realize the blue isn't nearly as left as you thought it was.
posted by symbioid at 8:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [14 favorites]


They don't need to improve their messaging. They need to improve their policies.

This 1000x. One of the most effective things Sanders did to win Millennial voters was refusing to insult their intelligence by acting like a couple of cameos by the right celebrities or saying the right sequence of focus-group-tested words would win their votes.
posted by dialetheia at 8:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [18 favorites]




Homunuclus, additionally and don't forget Gingrich's Contract On America and that pitiful Turd Blossom.

They broke it for fun and profit. Good luck putting it back together.

The "Establishment GOP" isn't the establishment at all - they threw the old Rockefeller Repubs out, done, gone Gone With The Dole and McCain... This was going to be the scorched earth conservative's time. Triumphant, all we need is someone even further to the right. Oh yeah.

The so called Establishment Repubs are pissed because the Rockefeller Repubs, in the guise of Trump, have decided to try to take the party back after the above mentioned broke it (Atwater included). Good luck with that too.
posted by WinstonJulia at 8:42 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Remember that time Kerry played Van Halen as his closing song at the Democratic National Convention? Yeah bro!!!
posted by sallybrown at 8:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


The one thing you can say about Edwards was his focus on two Americas, poverty, and the working class was ahead of the game. If he wasn't revealed to be a total scumbag, he could have done well running on that message this year.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I liked things like Occupy and BLM and Fight for 15 because they were group organizations that didn't/don't have a True Leader and seemed really focused on specific issues. It's the Bernie Is the Way stuff that really turns me off. I feel like everyone just wanted to fold all those issues into Sanders and that bothers me.

I see no evidence that agitating for Sanders is pulling attention away from these groups. If anything, the success of the Sanders campaign comes from engaging people who have not been previously involved in politics. Reddit is a cesspit with many resentful Sanders/Trump/or bust users, but I've noticed just as many asking about downticket races and how to stay involved with the causes Sanders champions after this election is over.

Granted, I also found the responses on the main Sanders subreddit to the Chicago Trump protests last week very disheartening (just as I found Clinton's initial equivocating admonishments to the protesters) so I'm not sure whether that demographic's support for Sanders would also translate to longer term, meaningful support for Black Lives Matter. Nevertheless, economic justice can't happen without social justice and vice versa so I'm just glad that there is some coherence in both being addressed together in both campaigns and that Clinton has thankfully pulled back from that weird pivot a few weeks ago that tried to make it a wedge issues by pitting economic populism against identity politics.
posted by dustyasymptotes at 8:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


TFW you realize the blue isn't nearly as left as you thought it was.

How left could it really be without this sort of rhetoric, after all?
posted by clockzero at 8:46 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump is more blatantly religiously illiterate than the rest, but of course I'm sure he'll find surrogates to attest to his religiosity and learn some new catchphrases

As I noted upthread, I think the evangelical vote will be a tough nut for Trump to crack.

Additionally, evangelicalism ain't what it was in the 80s. Millennial evangelicals are, naturally, still more conservative than their non-evangelical counterparts. But a lot of them are much more concerned about environmentalism, anti-poverty work and so on, and are at least open to talking about abortion and gay marriage.

Lots of my evangelical friends came to my (gay) wedding.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]



TFW you realize the blue isn't nearly as left as you thought it was.


Because of Kerry?
posted by zutalors! at 8:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Remember that time Kerry played Van Halen as his closing song at the Democratic National Convention? Yeah bro!!!

I like to imagine that teponaztli forgot about the Kerry meeting, but a few months later one Sunday afternoon they get a knock on their door, and when they open there's Kerry in a The Who t-shirt, pressed jeans, and a blazer holding a case of Sam Adams with three Secret Service agents behind him holding guitar equipment.

teponaztli lets them in and they jam for a while, mostly classic rock with a couple of attempts at newer stuff. It's an enjoyable time but kind of off, like hanging out with one of your Dad's friends without your Dad, plus you keep glancing at the Secret Service guys standing like statues in the corners of the room.
posted by Sangermaine at 8:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


His path to the nomination is tough but it's not impossible and I hope he keeps playing to win.

His path is impossible (for any value of possible that is not actually, impossible). Please show your work if you say it isn't.
posted by OmieWise at 8:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Has there ever been the slightest indication that Edwards actually believed his messaging? Man he always seemed like the least sincere candidate the Democrats have but up in ages. He makes someone like Romney look sincere and earnest.
posted by vuron at 8:49 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


There is zero reason to trust, from a pro-lifer's perspective, that Trump would use abortion as a litmus test if he was nominating a Justice.

One lady sitting next to each other in a TrumpCamp: "Hey, we're all being shot tomorrow, but at least they're not asking us if we're pregnant first!"

... Not a comfort.
posted by corb at 8:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's an enjoyable time but kind of off

Or you're two bars in and you're like, "Oh god. This guy plays guitar like Clinton plays sax."
posted by Trochanter at 8:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Oh jeez.

Bill Clinton: Sanders is the 'blame candidate'(TheHill)


God God.

JUST IGNORE HIM, IDIOT. YOURE GOING TO WIN ANYWAY, AND YOU'RE DOING MORE HARM THAN GOOD.

She really can't help it. What stupid thing is she going to next?
posted by Artw at 8:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


*shrug* I believed, and believe he was sincere. Scumbag in some ways doesn't mean scumbag in all ways. Human beings are a weird ass species.
posted by Drinky Die at 8:52 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Please show your work if you say it isn't.

Sure, here you go. I linked to it upthread too. He would need to win a bigger margin than 54% in California now that he lost more delegates than expected in OH and FL, but it's not out of the question - the map is much more favorable for him from this point on, although he would still have to win by some big margins (much like Obama did in western caucus states).
posted by dialetheia at 8:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I love open primaries!
posted by clavdivs at 8:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Looks like the Drumpfstaffel are ready to go.

So, it can happen here?
posted by fuse theorem at 8:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Just please load Bill onto a plane and send him circling the planet for the next few months, thanks.
posted by sallybrown at 8:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


If Trump wants to win-- and I say If because I have no idea what is in Trump's brain-- he'll pick some kind of evangelical bigwig as his running mate. The evangelical will think he's "saving America" by adding God to Trump's ticket, it will give all of the religious right permission to vote Trump, and we'll be in serious trouble.
posted by mmoncur at 8:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


ChurchHatesTucker: "If Rubio drops out, what happens to the 163 delegates he's picked up so far?

They're free to vote for whomever, although usually the candidate suggests an alternative.
"

It's actually considerably more complex than that.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


TFW you realize the blue isn't nearly as left as you thought it was.

The blue has evolved a lot over the past 15 years since I signed up for my account. It was actually pretty much right in the middle when I joined. There were a lot more right wing members back then - if I remember correctly. It has drifted a lot to the left over the last few years. Which I am very happy about!
posted by yertledaturtle at 8:57 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I think BLM and Fight for 15 have been as successful as they have due to lessons learned from Occupy.

I see BLM as pretty distinct from Occupy, especially if we're talking about the specific organization Black Lives Matter as opposed to the larger movement (which lately I've seen referred to as the Movement for Black Lives to help distinguish it). Just, I wouldn't say the movement took lessons from Occupy as much as it came up with a different and somewhat more effective way of organizing on its own.
posted by sallybrown at 8:58 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


*shrug* I believed, and believe he was sincere. Scumbag in some ways doesn't mean scumbag in all ways. Human beings are a weird ass species.

Yeah, Edwards was a scoundrel, and I feel like a jerk just for thinking good thoughts about him in '04. But he was also a legit plaintiffs attorney who took on big corporations for their defective products. I mean sure, he did it for the money, and the glory and fame. But he also did good. And sure, plaintiffs attorneys get a bad rap (although mostly I think that's because corporations hate them, not because they're all ambulance chasing sleazeballs), but in a democracy that has basically abandoned effective regulation of commerce, plaintiffs attorneys are about all we've got. And they certainly aren't taking the easy path in law. So I think he must've believed some of his bullshit.

Also he was really good looking.
posted by dis_integration at 8:59 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Further, as far as calls to drop out, party politics isn't just about who wins - this is as much about a display of solidarity and strength on the left as it is about winning the nomination. The more delegates he has, the more influence he has over the platform and the more likely Clinton is to consider his base when choosing her VP. The more states he campaigns in, the more he's able to continue making the argument for real left policies and build a real left movement within the Democratic party to provide meaningful resistance when Clinton pivots right for the general and during her presidency should she be elected. I am very glad he's continuing to the convention.
posted by dialetheia at 9:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [26 favorites]


Just please load Bill onto a plane and send him circling the planet for the next few months, thanks.
posted by sallybrown at 8:53 PM on March 15 [3 favorites +] [!]

Oh I forgot to say please make sure it's not Jeffrey Epstein's sex and/or rape plane thanks
posted by sallybrown at 9:00 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Sure, here you go. I linked to it upthread too. He would need to win a bigger margin than 54% in California now that he lost more delegates than expected in OH and FL, but it's not out of the question - the map is much more favorable for him from this point on, although he would still have to win by some big margins (much like Obama did in western caucus states).

I may be missing something, but that Jacobin chart shows Sanders needing to win every state from here on out. (PR and DC excepted, of course. They aren't states.) Current polling at, for instance, 538, doesn't show him being anywhere near being able to do that. Other than "the polls will change, he'll close it up," is there something I'm missing.
posted by OmieWise at 9:01 PM on March 15, 2016


Oh I forgot to say please make sure it's not Jeffrey Epstein's sex and/or rape plane thanks

Oh god, I am absolutely dreading what a liability he's going to be in the general. And when was the last time Bill was vetted?
posted by dialetheia at 9:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Chris Hayes just talked about how Sanders helped oppose Rahm. I did not know how much effort Bernie put in to that. Good fucking move, right thing to do, too bad it's not been politically rewarding.
posted by Drinky Die at 9:03 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


CNN has been indicating that Bernie needs to win around 75% of the remaining pledged delegates to win the nomination. That isn't going to happen and what are the chances that the Superdelegates are suddenly going to ignore Clinton's 300+ delegate lead and go oh well let's just put up the White dude instead?

I understand the desire to keep up morale but the reality is that the race for the Democratic nomination is effectively over. Assuming Maryland, New Mexico, Arizona and Delaware are safely Clinton there just isn't room for him to make up those sort of differences.

Even if we can somehow assume that California, Washington and Oregon go for Sanders (and I don't think Sanders stands a chance in California based upon how much Clinton is dominating with minority voters) I just don't think there is time or states left. New York and New Jersey would be phyrric wins at best for Sanders.

Like I said keep on fighting the good fight but seriously there is nothing to be gained by continuing to demonize Clinton other than a vain hope of Trump leading to a accelerationist future and honestly that way lies madness.
posted by vuron at 9:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [12 favorites]


Further, as far as calls to drop out, party politics isn't just about who wins - this is as much about a display of solidarity and strength on the left as it is about winning the nomination. The more delegates he has, the more influence he has over the platform and the more likely Clinton is to consider his base when choosing her VP. The more states he campaigns in, the more he's able to continue making the argument for real left policies and build a real left movement within the Democratic party to provide meaningful resistance when Clinton pivots right for the general and during her presidency should she be elected. I am very glad he's continuing to the convention.

Sure. Just to be clear about what I was saying: I was responding to your claim that he had a path to the nomination. I find it difficult to know what the point under discussion is when the goalposts keep moving. First it's the actual nomination, and don't think he's out. Then it's the power to change minds and influence people. Both are important, but they are a bit contradictory.
posted by OmieWise at 9:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


too bad it's not been politically rewarding.

For Sanders, but maybe it helped bring down the Alvarez lady?
posted by zutalors! at 9:04 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Trump likes his steaks well done.

fucking monster
posted by ryanrs at 9:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


Is it possible for Sanders to manage to extract some major promises from Clinton/The Democratic Party if it would mean he suspend his campaign?
posted by FJT at 9:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh god, I am absolutely dreading what a liability he's going to be in the general. And when was the last time Bill was vetted?

I think this is actually one of the major reasons Hillary would welcome a Trump race. Also one of the reasons it will end up being a disgusting and disturbing election for women. Sleazeballs and creeps as far as the eye can see! And it will be super great because a big chunk (although not most) of the public will punish Hillary more heavily for her husband's behavior (can't keep her man in line!) than Bill, and refuse to blame Trump for his own (can't keep that guy down! he just loves the ladies!).
posted by sallybrown at 9:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


I was responding to your claim that he had a path to the nomination.

Right, and I posted a link demonstrating the numbers he'd have to put up to get there. It's unlikely but not impossible. Dropping it now, though.
posted by dialetheia at 9:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm a vegetarian now so this is irrelevant but if Trump starts a movement post-loss to Hillary to defend the reputation of well done (NOT BURNT INTO CHARCOAL, STEAKHOUSES) steaks I will help that campaign.
posted by Drinky Die at 9:08 PM on March 15, 2016


Chris Hayes just talked about how Sanders helped oppose Rahm.

I saw him do a press conference on that. Solid.
posted by Trochanter at 9:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Alvarez's delightful ~30 point loss is probably more related to that whole murder cop cover-up thing
posted by theodolite at 9:08 PM on March 15, 2016 [9 favorites]


Sanders had nothing to do with Alvarez' ouster, that was purely a result of local outrage and it's been brewing much longer than the Sanders campaign came to town.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:09 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]




I've finally found it!

Trump likes his steaks well done.

The one thing I can agree with Trump on.

I feel a bit dirty.
posted by mmoncur at 9:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Or else what incentive does the Party have to do what the independents want, right?

The incentive is winning elections.


Yeah, but everyone claims that their policies will win elections. This is precisely the argument that lay behind the Third Way - that independents (centrist independents, rather than the Sanders left wing independents) were key to victory. What's different and useful about Sanders, I think - as well as movements like the Occupy offshoots, BLM, etc. - is that they represent the idea that you're going to need to work on bringing the electorate to you rather than going to where the electorate is, and you're going to have to make your case.

Which is something I haven't seen a tremendous amount of in the Democratic Party (including its Left flank) in the, oh, twenty-some years since I've been paying attention to politics. There's been a steady stream of what I can only describe as entitlement prophecies: the youth vote will swing the country to the Left because young people are always two point five points more liberal on every issue than their elders or some such nonsense, or the growing Hispanic vote will deliver a permanent Democratic majority (turns out second/third generation Hispanics often identify as white and are able to find a pretty comfortable home in the Republican Party), or some other variation of "history is on our side, the mindless horde will throng to us in time". Occasionally we got a more personal messiah figure who would usher in the golden age of Left-liberalism (Dean, Obama - I was originally skeptical of Sanders because he seemed like more of the same).

While among the more hard-headed, centrist, Clinton-era Democrats the push was always to accept unquestioningly the views (as mediated through wonks and commentators as well as polls) of the American people, not try to change them. Find out how the voters stand, and take that as your base. Which did win elections - and I for one still value having grown up under a Clinton presidency that actually got some good things done for my family and for other families as well, kept our soldiers from being sent overseas in their hundreds of thousands, for example - but which nevertheless ceded ground to the opposition. An opposition which wasn't just accepting what Americans thought, but trying to shape it, and succeeding very well. For thirty years the average American could turn on the radio or the TV and hear consistent, coherent and honest-sounding policy analysis coming from the Right, while from the center they heard little but statements about what an amorphous American population of which they were a part "would accept" - not what it should accept, and here's why. And while there were Left commentators who were talking as well, they were relatively few and often of an older generation (Chomsky and the late Howard Zinn, for example), while many others sank into apathy or contemptuous anger at a nation which seemed uninterested in accepting their views immediately and wholeheartedly, and grew angry at the notion that it was up to them - the right and the righteous - to make the case to groups they believed should naturally belong to them (the white working class especially).

Because what the Left and the center Democrats had in common was the assumption (there were exceptions, but they were very few and far between as far as I could tell) that you treated the American population as an irrational mass who would be swayed by pretty much anything but an actual argument. You still see remnants of this on the Left today - conservatives are just irrational monsters, incapable of critical thinking - but you see more figures, Sanders and Warren among them, who understand not only that triangulation won't save us but neither will the eternally ephemeral youth vote, or the shift to a minority-majority country - you have to actually argue the case, not just once but many times, face to face. This is the lesson the Right learned a long time ago - you make the case, you make it constantly, you never stop making it. The American citizen population is going to move leftward if that case is made consistently and over a longer time period than a single election cycle, if not, it won't.

Which is why Sanders, I think, isn't going to and shouldn't stop talking and campaigning, and why he makes clear his willingness to keep arguing his principles are better even as he argues that supporting Hillary in the general is important. He's not just fighting to win the election, although he's been very clear on how important victory here is. But there's a broader battle to win over the American people that isn't going to happen because of younger voters riding in to save us, or changing racial demographics, or (and there are still leftists who I see claiming this!) that the 2008 financial meltdown will naturally create a liberal-left constituency through sheer shared trauma. No inevitability is coming to save us. Sanders gets it. I really wish I could be sure that more of the Leftists he inspires get it as well - that electability is not a brute unchanging fact but something whose definition can and has to be changed, and that it can only be changed by consistent advocacy over time. That despair isn't a more sensible or mature response than the centrist complacency they so detest. But I see a lot of that despair, rooted in an assumption that other Americans who are conservative or centrist or whatever are monolithic blocks of awfulness who cannot be argued or reasoned with, which leads to Messianism and, ultimately, to self-fulfilling defeat.
posted by AdamCSnider at 9:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [34 favorites]


Holy shit well done steak? Fuck I bet he even douses that shit in something like A1 sauce. This man must be stopped for the sake of the palates of millions of Americans!

First they came for the foodies, but I did not speak out because I was not a foodie
posted by vuron at 9:10 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


And here I thought he would just take a HYUGGE bite into the cow
posted by zutalors! at 9:12 PM on March 15, 2016


His butler said Trump's steaks would rock on the plate.
posted by Trochanter at 9:12 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


EW!
posted by zutalors! at 9:13 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


If he'd been pushing the anti-Rahm angle for longer though I think we'd be having a different conversation right now. But it's pretty clear that the campaign didn't think it would blow up like it has, and they just couldn't be everywhere at once, once they realized they had a real shot.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


If Trump gets the nomination I believe that voting against him will be a very satisfying vote for lots and lots of people. I think it will be the biggest landslide in history. America is an awful country, yes, but it also has a habit of standing up to people like Trump when it comes down to it.
posted by cell divide at 9:14 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Is there any reason to trust the voting machines and tabulators in 2016? Might Trump or Clinton win by better relationships with people who can control and change vote counts?
posted by Radiophonic Oddity at 9:20 PM on March 15, 2016


Is there any reason to trust the voting machines and tabulators in 2016? Might Trump (or Clinton) win by better relationships with people who can control and change vote counts?

Yes, Occam's Razor; and no, respectively.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Is there any reason to trust the voting machines and tabulators in 2016? Might Trump (or Clinton) win by better relationships with people who can control and change vote counts?

There is basically no reason, from an infosec standpoint to trust them, no. Individual tabulators, at least, could easily be controlled, and it wouldn't require being chummy with the companies that make them. Just a sustained effort to hack them. But it's a nontrivial thing to manipulate every tabulator in every district without getting caught (unless you can get to them before they get distributed, or through a software update).

But unless we can show fraud, you either have to believe that the vote count is legit, or you have to go slowly insane.
posted by dis_integration at 9:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Cell divide is right of course. For example. I gauge the Ms. Clav vote highly and this election: "if Trump gets the primary nomination, I'm voting Hillary."

Simple, yet effective and quite the thought when one is going to pull that lever in November.

For Hillary, half the battle is over.
posted by clavdivs at 9:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Even if getting the nomination is hopeless, I think Sanders needs to stay in the race for two reasons: to continue to coalesce a leftist constituency within and also separate from the Democratic Party and also to keep Clinton electable. Sanders needs to keep pushing Clinton, especially on trade and militarism and Wall Street, in order to prevent Trump from flanking her to the left on these issues. If (and it's a big if) he can do this effectively, I think he has a very good chance of beating her in November. The best thing Sanders can do now to prevent this disaster is to keep her from pivoting to the center and exposing her left flank.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 9:24 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


America is an awful country, yes

... I mean, I kind of like it? For all its faults?
posted by Justinian at 9:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [25 favorites]


People say they want to vote for something, not against something, and I think that in general advocating for a positive program gets you better results .... but I am so looking forward to voting against Trump. If I wasn't worried about spoiling my ballot I'd write "Fuck No" next his name in addition to casting my vote for Clinton/Sanders/Whoever.

I wonder if we should start organizing a "Dump Trump" movement, planning "After Dump" parties where we can bask in the afterglow of voting against him. "Gonna take a good dump this Nov. 8th?" "Oh yeah. It's time time to take a huge load off [our domestic politics].", etc., etc.
posted by benito.strauss at 9:27 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


MSNBC saying Hillary is the apparent winner in Illinois.
posted by cashman at 9:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Only about a 2,000 vote difference between Sanders and Clinton in Missouri right now.

CNN called Illinois for Clinton.

(Although both are basically going to be ties so it doesnt matter much for delegates)
posted by thefoxgod at 9:29 PM on March 15, 2016


Oh god, I am absolutely dreading what a liability he's going to be in the general

I think Bill Clinton's tendency to be a political loose cannon is exactly what Hillary needs should Trump be the GOP candidate. I bet that Bill is pissed that he doesn't get to run against Trump himself. No matter what you think of Bill Clinton's policies or personality, imagine him on a debate stage with Trump. I would pay money to watch that.
posted by billyfleetwood at 9:29 PM on March 15, 2016 [16 favorites]


Looks like I'll wind up about half a percentage point off on my prediction for Illinois, I feel pretty good about that!

But I'm going to bed before finding out for sure, some of these precincts are not going to report until after midnight!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Obama Trump would be a good bout.
posted by Trochanter at 9:32 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Bills' not looking well.
posted by clavdivs at 9:33 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Wow, it's really down to the wire in Missouri for the Dems. Clinton is only .4% behind with 2% of the vote left.
posted by Sangermaine at 9:33 PM on March 15, 2016


43 states will use 10-15 year old voting equipment in 2016. I imagine it's trivial to take over some of these machines, so maybe we shouldn't blindly trust vote counts.

Wouldn't Occam's Razor suggest that plenty of people have motive, means, and opportunity to alter votes? It's not that difficult to find exploits, manuals, disassemble code for old software.
posted by Radiophonic Oddity at 9:34 PM on March 15, 2016


Yeah, but dis_integration's point stands: sure it's possible, but unless you have evidence you'll go mad because there are unlimited scenarios that are possible.
posted by Sangermaine at 9:36 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


In terms of voting machines, you don't need to control them all-- just certain precincts in Ohio/Florida and possibly other swing states.
posted by cell divide at 9:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Missouri will be a nailbiter but apparently there are a decent number of precincts in STL that haven't reported. Seriously Missouri get your shit together. Anyway apparently I way way overestimated that Michigan result last week and it appears that it was mainly crappy polling in Michigan that was the culprit. Polling on the Democratic side has been extremely accurate today which should give the polling wonks a bit of a sigh of relief.
posted by vuron at 9:38 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Missouri will be a nailbiter

MSNBC just reported Clinton taking the lead, and there's only one county left to report, and that county is expected to break for Clinton. Your cuticles are saved!
posted by cashman at 9:41 PM on March 15, 2016


Tim McGinty, the Cleveland prosecutor who purposefully managed not to charge the officers who killed 12 year old Tamir Rice, just lost his Democratic primary.

~~adds additional dance moves to my #ByeAnita celebration~~
posted by sallybrown at 9:43 PM on March 15, 2016 [41 favorites]


Not to slight other smart folks posting, but I think we ought to take a cue from two of the most level-headed posters here: Arbitrary and Capricious and dialethia. Two really smart people who get it, imo, even if their emphases are sometimes quite different. A&C talks process, organizational depth and long term thinking; D has provided many substantive policy goals that are worthy of serious contemplation. I strongly suspect that if we took their examples to heart that we'd find ways to embrace the best of both their perspectives. I also suspect that they'd agree on many issues, too.

It's going to take both strong, pro-human policies and considerable organizational muscle to implement them. Nobody gets everything they want but the truth of the matter is that at this time, very few people are getting anything they want. Except maybe the insiders and oligarchs running the show. Sanders is an outsider, Clinton an insider, and we need the best of those two worlds to achieve any semblance of a more just world. We also need to force each of these stubborn and ambitious candidates to abandon some of their lesser appealing qualities and positions.

People need to stop underestimating the incredible power of ideas. People need to grasp the utter importance of creating the organizational strength to implement those ideas.

Because, as is becoming more apparent every day if one looks across the aisle, the alternative lies in base appeals to "might-is-right" and that almost always leads to violence.

Let's nip that shit in the bud and do it proper and good.
posted by CincyBlues at 9:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [31 favorites]


Wow, a clean sweep tonight is crazy. I don't think anyone expected this coming off of Michigan last week. I wonder what negated the Bernmentum at the close because Sanders heavily outspent Clinton in Missouri.
posted by vuron at 9:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Open primaries
posted by clavdivs at 9:51 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


And with 99% of the vote counted in Missouri, and remainder due from areas of strong Clinton support, it appears she has won 5 of 5.

I hope all the Bernie supporters take pride in the fact that Clinton has already expressed her agreement with him more strongly as the race has progressed, and quickly turn towards a strong and united front against Trump, because with ⅔ of the remaining R contests winner take all, he is, incredibly, almost certainly going to be the R nominee. And frankly neither Cruz or Kasich is close to being an acceptable President.

Also, a D landslide could bring both houses of Congress, governorships and state legislatures into reach for the D's. Then we could stop the ongoing infringement of minority voter rights and end partisan gerrymandering.
posted by bearwife at 9:53 PM on March 15, 2016 [6 favorites]


Historical question: a couple folks have advocated primarying Hillary from the left in 2020. Has this - primarying a sitting president - EVER been successfully done? Ted Kennedy failed in 1980, and that's the only attempt that even comes to mind.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:54 PM on March 15, 2016




NBC has called Missouri for Clinton with 99% in. She's got a razor thin margin but there apparently aren't enough votes left outstanding to close the gap.
posted by Justinian at 9:55 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


NBC calls Clinton "apparent" winner in Missouri.

My response.
posted by Drinky Die at 9:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Bette Midler: @RealDonaldTrump gets close to the nomination. Now I see why we needed warnings on plastic bags telling us not to put them over our heads.
posted by Wordshore at 9:56 PM on March 15, 2016 [27 favorites]


Clinton is the nominee yo. Sanders should drop and endorse. The first party to unite will win this election. He fought the good fight, but this is a TKO.
posted by Drinky Die at 10:01 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


I hope after today Sanders starts to steer his movement towards supporting downticket progressives. The world needs a sane United States more than ever, especially on climate. This is an issue that Bernie has been particularly good on, and an area where I think Secretary Clinton has the right intentions, but is letting herself be too influenced by a destructive consensus in Washington. I was really happy to see Sanders press her in the last debate to commit to ending fracking. While I would love it if Clinton reversed herself and endorsed a total end to fracking for oil and gas, I'm not confident she is going to budge. In the meantime, Sanders supporters would be wise to expend some energy to carry that same pledge all the way down to state rep primaries.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 10:02 PM on March 15, 2016 [20 favorites]


Clinton is the nominee yo. Sanders should drop and endorse. The first party to unite will win this election. He fought the good fight, but this is a TKO.

I disagree. Trump, and the republican party will pull all the media coverage the next few months if theirs is still a race, and the dems are just waiting around. It also allows Cruz, Trump and Kasich to focus all their attacks on Clinton while making it seems like, via the coverage, those 3 are the people the country is choosing from for president. I think its a smart move to keep Sanders running as long as possible.
posted by cashman at 10:05 PM on March 15, 2016 [8 favorites]


I hope after today Sanders starts to steer his movement towards supporting downticket progressives.

That's the thing, he never steered or pivoted or changed any approach at all. He might do that but I doubt it.
posted by zutalors! at 10:06 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


So it's another 0.2%. Is SNL going to do another cough and shake Larry David parody?
posted by vuron at 10:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


That's the most I've ever liked Larry David
posted by zutalors! at 10:07 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]




Poor Katy Tur, she looks like she hasn't slept for days. For covering the Trump campaign, NBC/MSNBC should give her combat pay and promise a vacation in Tahiti after the general election.
posted by Ber at 10:15 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Especially after Trump pointed at the journalists in the very back of his rally, called them "disgusting," and got the crowd to jeer at them.
posted by sallybrown at 10:16 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


So the votes are all in, right? When will they call Missouri for both parties?
posted by Sangermaine at 10:18 PM on March 15, 2016


I just have to say I could not be more ecstatic to see the backs of Anita Alvarez and Tim McGinty. This is a shot across the bow - your lack of action has consequences. This is black lives mattering (after the fact, of course - we haven't come that far yet) -- people taking the time to campaign and go out and vote to get rid of these craven do-nothings.

It would make a big difference to my feelings about Clinton if she would come out and break from Rahm, specifically citing the Laquan McDonald case and others like it. Especially because she has made a point about her support from mothers who've lost children to police shootings.
posted by sallybrown at 10:20 PM on March 15, 2016 [10 favorites]


Sangermaine: I like to imagine that teponaztli forgot about the Kerry meeting, but a few months later one Sunday afternoon they get a knock on their door, and when they open there's Kerry in a The Who t-shirt, pressed jeans, and a blazer holding a case of Sam Adams with three Secret Service agents behind him holding guitar equipment.

It's like you were there!

Apparently during the campaign he was talking about how he'd been learning some James Taylor songs, which at the time seemed really uncool, and today also seems not-exactly-cool, but in a way that I'm totally OK with. Sadly, I do not think he needed my vote badly enough, and he never followed through. Thanks for the memories (well, memory), John.
posted by teponaztli at 10:22 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


Deep sigh of despair as I foresee the TPP rolling my country, blitzing every environmental law corporations find an impediment to profit.
posted by valetta at 10:26 PM on March 15, 2016 [7 favorites]


Clinton is the nominee yo. Sanders should drop and endorse. The first party to unite will win this election. He fought the good fight, but this is a TKO.

Negative. The nominee gets decided at the convention. The platform gets decided at the convention. The time for unity (and the best chance for a lot of unity) comes from allowing the process to develop as designed.

I get it that Clinton supporters are offended that Sanders (and those who support him, like myself) is actually trying to win, instead of putting up a token candidacy, but deal with the fact that the ideas motivating the Sanders campaign are valid and worthy of consideration. Suggesting that he ought to "drop and endorse" betrays the very essence of why political discourse is so important. This isn't a game, it's much more serious than that. And I suspect that even if it were a game, any calls to quit and give up in the 3rd quarter would be a disservice to the game itself. By implying that we ought to invoke a mercy rule is not only mistaken, it's insulting.
posted by CincyBlues at 10:28 PM on March 15, 2016 [43 favorites]


Historical question: a couple folks have advocated primarying Hillary from the left in 2020. Has this - primarying a sitting president - EVER been successfully done?

Yeah, I saw those. Sigh. Y'know, its funny how much argument we need to put into getting people interested in getting her elected, but plotting her overthrow four years from now is apparently a font of great enthusiasm.

And no, not in the 20th century at least (there were a couple of weird cases in the 1800s before the present primary system was established - Tyler was expelled from the Whig Party during his incumbency and Polk became their new candidate, for example). LBJ famously decided not to run om 1968, and Theodore Roosevelt ran what was essentially a third-party Bull Moose insurgency against Taft in 1912, but successful attempts to primary a sitting president haven't been a thing in well past living memory.
posted by AdamCSnider at 10:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


> Deep sigh of despair as I foresee the TPP rolling my country, blitzing every environmental law corporations find an impediment to profit.

Well, if it makes you feel better, it won't be just your country.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:31 PM on March 15, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump seems (or seemed, maybe today will change that) aggravated by and afraid of Sanders' politics.

Leaving him in may deflect a lot of negativity aimed at Clinton because Trump just can't seem to help himself.

Clinton has faced decades of unjust and disproportionate attacks on her character, but it's really on her if she can't motivate people vote for her (or against Trump/Cruz/mystery date).

Two of her biggest obstacles in winning over the Bernie diehards will be Jill Stein (who is rad but also expect some "I'm not a Bro, see! I'm voting for a woman!" pettiness ) and apathy ("the system is rigged, fuck it")
posted by elr at 10:33 PM on March 15, 2016


This fingerpicker finds James Taylor pretty impressive! I give Kerry a definite "E" for Effort. He sort of mangles the Malaguena bit, but hey, he's giving it a shot.
posted by CincyBlues at 10:34 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


Trump, Cruz Vow to Barricade Kasich from Convention

This will go well.
posted by sallybrown at 10:38 PM on March 15, 2016


TFW you realize the blue isn't nearly as left as you thought it was.

I'm probably not as left as I like to think I am, but I did vote for Sanders and I spent most of tonight drinking. Now I'm skimming this post as I wait for the dryer to go off.
posted by DynamiteToast at 10:39 PM on March 15, 2016 [3 favorites]


He sort of mangles the Malaguena bit, but hey, he's giving it a shot.

Aw, that's actually really charming. Yeah, Taylor's a really great guitar player. Younger me was just a snob. Anyway, this is all a derail, so - sorry, my fault!
posted by teponaztli at 10:41 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yeah, I saw those. Sigh. Y'know, its funny how much argument we need to put into getting people interested in getting her elected, but plotting her overthrow four years from now is apparently a font of great enthusiasm.

Would you rather have a discourse about how evil she is and how we should stay at home or vote third party or write in Sanders?

I'm not saying that primarying Clinton is inevitable. Certainly we should give her administration a chance first. But I'm just saying that even if Sanders loses, that's not the end, not by a long shot. One line of defense falls, you go to the next ring. You prepare to cultivate and put forth progressives to vote for in the midterms. Then you try to work with Clinton in the White House to move things left, wherever applicable. Try to conjure up the same amount of energy that's been sparked by Sanders towards strengthening the ACA, or killing the TPP, or curtailing the NSA, and so forth.

And if her administration doesn't play ball, then primary her. 2016 isn't the end of the line, is all.

And as far as your historical analysis goes, that's correct. But I think we're at the end of a party system and as we can clearly see in the GOP camp, we are seeing unprecedented events. Successfully primarying a sitting president (who might not be Clinton, even), or brokered conventions, or a successful third party run, or parties breaking up into a four-way race a la 1860; who can say what 2020 will bring us?
posted by Apocryphon at 10:43 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]


There is something else very important about the continued fight of Bernie vs Hillary. It's this: it creates a leftist narrative. It's gives voters more exposure to a leftist platform.

Imagine if Bernie gives a concession speech tomorrow. What happens? The republican garbage pile suddenly dominates ALL NEWS. All press is good press, as Truml knows well, and the WORST possibly thing for democrats would be to give the news cycles to Cruz/Drump/Zardoz for the next three months.

If Bernie gives up, Creamsicle will win. Hands down. Hillary needs him to forge her narrative and maintain the spotlight on policies and differentiation between Democrats and the trash fire that is the Republican Party.

Also, he does have a chance. A stronger one than Hillary supporters think, but I'm laying the tactical case for why he is necessary for her presidency.
posted by special agent conrad uno at 10:44 PM on March 15, 2016 [21 favorites]


Yeah I'm not a Clinton supporter. I'm just looking at the election realities here. Bernie is not mathematically eliminated yet, but as a practical matter I can't see how he takes enough votes going forward to have a claim on this nomination. Love her or hate her, Hillary has won this nomination and she will be the person standing up to and defeating Trump come the general.
posted by Drinky Die at 10:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


teponaztli: "Yeah, Taylor's a really great guitar player. Younger me was just a snob."

Plus he helped save us from the ant invasion.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:45 PM on March 15, 2016 [5 favorites]


[A couple of comments deleted; don't make this personal, please. Discuss the topics, not other members of the site.]
posted by taz at 10:47 PM on March 15, 2016 [1 favorite]


We should get together and jam sometime, teponaztli!
posted by CincyBlues at 10:48 PM on March 15, 2016 [2 favorites]




^^^Sorry, not completely related to the election. I hope no de-rail results from my impudent posting of the Fran Drescher quote on this post.
posted by yertledaturtle at 11:05 PM on Ma