How Are Things In Your Town?
May 6, 2016 4:11 AM   Subscribe

When he saw a 538 article that claimed to define "normal America" as cities similar to the national average based on "race, education, and age", statistics freak Lyman Stone thought it needed much more detailed analysis. So he collected 20 sets of statistics (from % Married to % Households With No Phone) and made a big honking spreadsheet he called Lyman's Grand Scale of Urban Weirdness. So based on his 20-factor-analysis, which American Metro Areas are most "Normal" and which are most "Weird"?

If you decided TL/DR,
the most "Weird" are
#1 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
#2 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
#3 Jacksonville, NC
the most "Normal" (or just "Average") are
#1 Oklahoma City, OK
#2 Tulsa, OK
#3 Jacksonville, FL

(long-forgotten pop-cutural post title reference)
posted by oneswellfoop (70 comments total) 21 users marked this as a favorite
 
As a hobby statistician I find this very insteresting, thanks!

> If you decided TL/DR, the most "Weird" are ...

Yes, and you wouldn't know that immediately by just looking at the tables, because for some weird reason, the author decided to list the ten weirdest/normalest cities in ALPHABETICAL order, rather than in order of weirdness, so that you'd first have to run a mental sorting algorithm over those tables. (Or RTFA.)
But interesting nonetheless.
posted by sour cream at 4:58 AM on May 6, 2016 [6 favorites]


That's why I linked to the big spreadsheet before the article (and added the TL/DR), but what do expect from a statistician whose day job is with the USDA? (USOCDA?)
posted by oneswellfoop at 5:02 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


It's somewhat weird to me that Springfield stands out via both methods as fairly "normal," because to be honest I think of Springfield as lousy. Ditto New Haven.
posted by Diablevert at 5:16 AM on May 6, 2016


The distribution of Weirdness is itself not normal: it's skewed. The top of the scale has a longer tail than the bottom of the scale. So, the weirdest places are even weirder in that they are also farther away from the center of the distribution. Also, having a value smaller than 6 on this scale is itself weird. (Not as weird as having a value greater than 28, but still weird.) The *really* normal places are the ones with scores in the middle, like where I live. ;)
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 5:16 AM on May 6, 2016 [4 favorites]


#3 Jacksonville, NC

If an economy built on tattoo parlors and strip clubs isn't normal, I don't even know this country.
posted by Bulgaroktonos at 5:17 AM on May 6, 2016 [25 favorites]


My wife is from Columbus, OH and I go there every year. I agree. It feels very, very, very, very normal. Extraordinarily normal. I would go so far as to say abnormally normal.

I like it a lot.
posted by escabeche at 5:22 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think of Springfield as lousy. Ditto New Haven.

To be fair, no one said normal was great or desirable.
posted by smirkette at 5:23 AM on May 6, 2016 [11 favorites]


"If an economy built on tattoo parlors and strip clubs isn't normal, I don't even know this country."

No, that sounds about right to me. Throw in a few thrift stores and some vacant buildings, and that's a shockingly common downtown.
posted by kevinbelt at 5:24 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


#3 Jacksonville, NC
If an economy built on tattoo parlors and strip clubs isn't normal, I don't even know this country.


And places to freshen up the ol' high 'n tight. Besides, Jacksonville is the hometown of Ryan Adams. What?! He was actually kind of weird at one point.

How is Normal, IL not on the weird list? Unironically, it was incredibly normal when I lived there, which makes it really weird.
posted by NoMich at 5:27 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


Of course, this may just show that "lousy" is the "new normal"*. I have no interest in living anywhere in Oklahoma myself.

But then, most of the cities and towns in California are on the high end of the "weird" scale, including some in the Central San Joaquin Valley that I wouldn't recommend to anyone, just above the mid-coastal community where I live very happily. So there really is no correlation between either end of the scale and "good places to live". Which may be the most significant finding of all.

* I do NOT like the term "the new normal". No sir, I don't like it.
posted by oneswellfoop at 5:28 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


I live about fifteen miles from Bisbee, Arizona, which would be high on the weirdness scale if the writer even deigned to consider small towns. I wouldn't live in a high-population area if you paid me. But I'm old (62) and I have the luxury of avoiding congested areas.
posted by Agave at 5:32 AM on May 6, 2016 [6 favorites]


I'm fairly well-traveled, especially to "normal" places, and most of the list rings true to me. But Louisville/Jefferson County as the 10th most normal place in America is most decidedly false. The latter part, especially: Jefferson County might be normal demographically, but in terms of behavior I've never been somewhere more abnormal. One time, I drove past a liquor store where some kids were leisurely climbing in a Jeep. A few minutes later, I had to do a u-turn because the road was closed by flood waters. As I turned around, that same Jeep was speeding toward me, with no one in its driver's seat, and a large tree being dragged underneath the chassis, followed by several police cars. The police cars got the Jeep to stop (how, I'm not sure, since *there was no driver*), and wrestled the passengers out of the car with their guns drawn. Alas, this is where that story ends, as I drove by and didn't wait for the resolution. That night, we went to dinner in downtown New Albany, which we thought was the nice part of the county, until we returned to our hotel and realized that, as we were eating, there was a high-speed police chase occurring around us after a bank robbery down the block. The next morning, I woke up, and directly in front of my hotel room door were a bunch of pretzel crumbs, as if someone sat down in front of my door to eat their pretzels. When I went to the parking lot, the car next to mine was riddled with bullet holes. That is Jefferson County, Indiana, your tenth-most normal city in America.
posted by kevinbelt at 5:37 AM on May 6, 2016 [46 favorites]


That... sounds right?
posted by tobascodagama at 5:44 AM on May 6, 2016 [6 favorites]


new haven is the only place i have lived in for any length of time in the usa. the inequality and racial division seemed pretty odd to me. worrying if that is normal.
posted by andrewcooke at 5:44 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


I worked in New Haven for awhile at a store on Chapel Street, both the yalies and the other assorted urban flotsam seemed determined to drive me bananas. In contrast, it's much maligned neighbor, Bridgeport, where I lived for many years, was wonderfully unpretentious if a bit of a wreck.
posted by jonmc at 5:57 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


I used to work at a cafe on chapel st in New Haven, but it was by the art grad school so most of the people were nice enough. Where my house was on the east side of the river, (but still in new haven) was an utter dump. I more than once saw 30+ person fights across the street from my house.
posted by Ferreous at 6:05 AM on May 6, 2016


That is Jefferson County, Indiana, your tenth-most normal city in America.

FWIW, Indiana is the nation's leading meth producer. Just sayin'...
posted by Thorzdad at 6:09 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


Im not surprised to see Louisville high up on this list... I am quite surprised to hear "New Albany, IN" and "nice" in the same sentence.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:10 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


I knew Laredo would show up as soon as I read the variables. High foreign born, high poverty, lots of renters, low educational attainment. We're off the charts on a bunch of these. We are also have the smallest percentage of white people of any urban area in the US. Go Laredo!
posted by Pater Aletheias at 6:10 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


> (long-forgotten pop-cutural post title reference)

Surely you must have meant to link to this.
posted by DarkForest at 6:11 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also, one person's 'weird' is another's 'pretentious.'
posted by jonmc at 6:12 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


Nothing will convince me that Indiana is normal or redeemable.
posted by Ferreous at 6:15 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


Spokane is a gem.
posted by furtive at 6:15 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


"How is Normal, IL not on the weird list? "

Illinois as a whole topped the list of "normal" states, being the state whose demographics (urban/rural, rich/poor, racial mix, immigrants, industry mix, etc.) is the closest match for the country as a whole. So Normal remains pretty normal!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:17 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


Apparently Indiana is weird.
posted by benito.strauss at 6:27 AM on May 6, 2016


I've always described it as the state where the south prolapsed north.
posted by Ferreous at 6:29 AM on May 6, 2016 [7 favorites]


Bellingham is normal? ... Huh.
posted by Zalzidrax at 6:33 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


Also this doesn't really answer the question, is 'average' normal or weird?
posted by Zalzidrax at 6:36 AM on May 6, 2016


"For the record Austin, you’re not that weird: 12.05 score, below-average weirdness. Go ahead. Send me your hate-mail."

The struggle to keep Austin weird has apparently failed.
posted by Atreides at 6:49 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


Those "Keep Portland Weird" bumper stickers annoyed me enough that I put one on my car that said "Make Portland Normal" -- though clearly we need to nail down what defines weird and normal.
posted by rabbitrabbit at 6:52 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


So among the criteria:
9. Median Male Annual Earnings- Very low wages and very high wages are alike penalized.
Crtl+F: "female", nothing, "women", nothing. "mother"? Nothing. Because we all know that only men's income is relevant.
20. White % of the Population. Because if they're not white and not foreign born, well, they all look the same.

I'm not saying he's wrong or intentionally biased. Just that there are some incredibly large blind spots here. It feels like these factors were chosen intentionally in order to contrast with the 538 numbers. 538 just did some broad categories- race, education, ethnicity and age. I'm not sure about education, but the rest of it can easily be seen as what you would see driving (or walking, or taking the bus) down the street. These ones, well, they get oddly specific, like looking only at owner owned household size instead of general household size, or white collar and resource extraction while ignoring service sector and manufacturing.

By his definition, these places are weird or normal. But his definition of normal is decidedly weird.
posted by Hactar at 6:55 AM on May 6, 2016 [5 favorites]


Austin lost the battle to stay weird in the 80s it's just been hanging on to past glories for about 30 years now.
posted by vuron at 6:55 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


Okay:

* In 2005, someone took on a fun pet project to ascertain who was "the most average person in America." They took a whole bunch of random polls and studies that yielded information like "more people own dogs than cats" or "more people eat red meat than are vegetarians" or "the average person lives in an area with x% population density", and then crunched all the data to try to find someone who matched as many of those stats as possible. They did indeed find one person - and that person lived in my birth hometown.

* Then, also in 2005, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Slate magazine decided to see if it could figure out the place that was, on average, the least vulnerable to natural disasters. It went through a careful process to narrow things down to a single county - which is the very same county in the United States where you will find my birthplace.

So it does not surprise me in the slightest that New Haven was named the most "normal" town in this initial report - because there are already two other studies that have concluded that Connecticut is the bastion of "normal" and "average".

I also take this as evidence that my teenage complaints that "this place is boring and nothing ever happens here" actually were supported by science.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:01 AM on May 6, 2016 [20 favorites]


So are the places that have a normal amount of weirdness (approx average weirdness) more normal than the places with an abnormal amount of normality?
posted by yeolcoatl at 7:02 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


Also: Congrats to Spokane for being weirdly normal. Woo! Spokane!
posted by yeolcoatl at 7:03 AM on May 6, 2016


It's a bit of a paradox. The average family has 1.25 children, but if you met someone with one and a quarter children, you wouldn't exactly think that's normal.
posted by RobotHero at 7:07 AM on May 6, 2016 [5 favorites]




Why does it list Jersey City, as being in PA? I can tell you with full confidence that it's in NJ, between NYC and Newark.
posted by fings at 7:40 AM on May 6, 2016


It doesn't. The "New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA" is just the label for the geographical unit of measurement (the greater NYC metropolitan area) which extends into eastern Pennsylvania.
posted by plastic_animals at 7:47 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


He keeps using that word, Normal. I don't think it means what he thinks it means.

A better choice would be Typical. Or Average. Or even Mundane.

Personally, I prefer above average. Does that make me weird?
posted by Jefffurry at 7:50 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


I also take this as evidence that my teenage complaints that "this place is boring and nothing ever happens here" actually were supported by science.

I have been to Storrs several times and I concur that oh my god, nothing happens here, does it?
posted by maryr at 7:53 AM on May 6, 2016


#1 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Also, one person's 'weird' is another's 'pretentious.'

I've lived in or near #1 for over 30 years. It doesn't strive to be weird (I think all the foreign-born inhabitants tipped the scale), and has too much of a cultural inferiority complex in relation to San Francisco and the Peninsula to ever hope to get closer than being an acquaintance to pretentiousness.
posted by King Sky Prawn at 7:54 AM on May 6, 2016 [6 favorites]


After many years on the road and having familiarity with most of these places, what strikes me most about this list is how very very much I don't want to live in any of the normal places.
Of course I grew up in San Jose, but back in the '50s and '60s it was normal. Or at least I thought it was.
posted by Alter Cocker at 8:04 AM on May 6, 2016


I'm from kalmazoo, 7th most normal town. Keep Kalamazoo Normal!
posted by rebent at 8:15 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


He also made a poor choice by using the word weird and the reaction to his work shows why authors need to choose their words with care. People have an emotional reaction to weird and the word is most often associated with the aberrant behavior of an individual, not the demographic characteristics of a region. That people sometimes act weird in an otherwise "normal" city is irrelevant in this analysis.

This work is more "sciencey" than science in that the author picks a few reasonable sounding variables and dashes off a statistical analysis in which he takes twenty economic and demographic variables and contorts them into a single, linear, normal-to-weird continuum.

What the analysis actually shows is how close regions hew to the normal (in the statistical sense of normal being a measure of central tendency like average or median) across the twenty chosen variables. Regions with values that are close to average across all the variables are those that come out as "normal". Places that have a couple of variables with values that differ greatly from average (like the NYC MSA which has a far greater number of immigrants than the national average and a much lower rate of car ownership than the national average) come out as "weird". The scale here is not normal to weird, but from "measures close to average on many variables" to "deviates greatly from average on a few variables".
posted by plastic_animals at 8:16 AM on May 6, 2016 [3 favorites]


Your town has a higher percentage of government employees than the average? Weird! Housing costs are more or less than the median? Totally freaky! You consider yourself more than 60% male or 60% female? Way to rebel against normal gender roles! Truly we are exploring new frontiers of urban weirdness here.
posted by sfenders at 8:22 AM on May 6, 2016


"For the record Austin, you’re not that weird: 12.05 score, below-average weirdness. Go ahead. Send me your hate-mail."

Round Rock is throwing off the average.
posted by Finfishley at 8:22 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


If the average non-averageness is 13.2, what does that mean?
posted by Zalzidrax at 8:23 AM on May 6, 2016


San Jose vs Jacksonville, NC weirdness clash: I was using my iPhone for directions around Jacksonville, and Siri kept pronouncing "North Marine Boulevard" like the middle word was referring to the Bay Area county.
posted by bendybendy at 8:56 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


To the average mefite, "weird" is something to strive for and "normal" is an insult.
posted by rocket88 at 9:02 AM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


#1 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

Yeah baby!

People ask me how I live living in America, having moved here from Canada 8 years ago.

I tell them I don't live in America, I live in California. And now I can say it with even more authority! Time to form the Santa Clara County Separatist party!

And for those that haven't read the article closely enough, this area isn't weird as in cool-but-puzzling, it's weird as in full of people with high salaries, lots of brown people and too much education.
posted by GuyZero at 9:09 AM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


"#1 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

I've lived in or near #1 for over 30 years. It ... has too much of a cultural inferiority complex in relation to San Francisco and the Peninsula to ever hope to get closer than being an acquaintance to pretentiousness."

Santa Clara County is Mountain View and Palo Alto. Pretentiousness? Check.
posted by kevinbelt at 9:18 AM on May 6, 2016


While MTV and PA are indeed in Santa Clara County I think the survey means the City of Santa Clara, along with Sunnyvale & San Jose.
posted by GuyZero at 9:22 AM on May 6, 2016


For some reason, it thrills me to see Spokane is completely normal
posted by mumimor at 11:08 AM on May 6, 2016


woohoo my hometown (well, the urban area it's in) and my current city are numbers 1 and 4 on the weird scale! yeah baby
posted by burgerrr at 11:43 AM on May 6, 2016


This reminds me, in its spirit, of all those dog-whistle appeals to "real America" that politicians sometimes use. I grew up in New York, have lived there for nearly my whole life and I feel comfortable there because it's a place where my experience as a bilingual, second-generation immigrant and visible minority is extremely normal. I feel uncomfortable in places that are majority white. Why are places that have disproportionate percentages of minorities "weird"? I know they're weird in the broad statistical sense but Is that really a metric we want to use to determine normality? "Normal" carries associations of good and desirable with it and "weird" sounds like some sort of crazy fun lifestyle choice. I don't like New York because it's crazy and weird--I like it because I feel comfortable there in a way that I really don't feel anywhere else in America.
posted by armadillo1224 at 12:21 PM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


"Why are places that have disproportionate percentages of minorities 'weird'"

Because they're not like most of America. That's the point of this article - what city is, statistically speaking, most similar to the American average for the various categories? New York is most definitely not like the rest of America, on a number of measures. There's no value judgment being made. Part of the reason you don't feel comfortable anywhere else is because New York is so different.
posted by kevinbelt at 12:44 PM on May 6, 2016


Yeah, New York isn't America. It's IN America, technically, but it's as American as a raspberry and smoked salmon samosa.
posted by GuyZero at 12:53 PM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


Yeah those 8.4 million people making up the most populous metro area don't count, obviously.
posted by The Whelk at 1:11 PM on May 6, 2016


8.4 million is just the city itself
23 million in the metro area (according to Wikipedia)

but that's neither here nor there (well it is here in that i am there but that's also beside the point)

this whole focus on what is representative of America? is a nice exercise, but probably only encourages those who would say this is and this is not real America - maybe we can one day accept that if it's in the boundaries, it's American, including every single person who was born here and probably a good number of those who weren't but may as well have been

preaching to the choir in this forum i know
just bracing myself for the coming months of electoral madness
because it would be nice to hear more politicians get blunt about these things
posted by kokaku at 1:22 PM on May 6, 2016


So Lyman Stone argues that Jed Kolko's method makes "high-cost, transit-dense urban areas" seem more normal than they are. But maybe that's not a problem.

For an analogy, the population density of the USA is 35 people per square kilometre. But if you took every American and distributed them evenly across the country, for a majority of Americans, that would be a much lower population density than they are used to.

But the obvious weakness of my analogy is he didn't use any measurements based on per-land-area, they were all based on per-person or per-household. So it's not exactly the same problem.

But imagine if, for example, you polled a random sample of Americans and found out the demographics for the city they live in, and averaged that instead? I think that would skew a little more towards the dense urban areas.

So you've got to decide what it means for a city to be representative of America? They're going with it matching the demographics of the USA, but it's not going to be representative of the average American's experience.
posted by RobotHero at 1:35 PM on May 6, 2016 [2 favorites]


So what have we learned today?
Well, "normal" when it's defined as "average" is NOT "typical". Note the "Search for the Most Average American" EmpressCallipygos linked to - for one thing, it's wrong because with 51% female population in the U.S., the 'Average American' is a woman. But that points out something that I have declared frequently (pointing to one of my all-time favorite books, "How to Lie With Statistics"): that statistical analysis can be very slippery, and if basing it on 3 categories as the original article did is inadequate, even 20 categories probably are. And Lyman does admit to some 'weighing' (aka 'fudging') because Statistical Bias is inevitable.

And what is "weird" anyway? (Besides the theme for MeaFilter in May?) "Average" is certainly not "Optimal"; for some categories, the maximum is really ideal, for others the minimum is, and where it's "somewhere in between", the midpoint is absolutely NOT necessarily the best. And where the optimal is far from the average, "weird" in one direction is better and "weird" in the other is worse.

So, if you can make any conclusions from all this (and frankly, I'd rather you didn't), it would be that (1) America is Weird, both in good ways and bad ways, and (2) Statistics are Weird. So if you have a Freak Flag, fly it, unless it's a Confederate Flag, and remember, your hometown isn't really "more American" than anyplace else. Yeah, Cleveland rocks, but my family moved away from there when when I was 5½.
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:06 PM on May 6, 2016 [1 favorite]


My beloved Athens, GA loses out to Columbus AND Dalton in our fair state!?

No sir. We are tops of weirdness in our state, maybe not as weird as some of the premier weirdness hotspots worldwide or nationwide, but we definitely win in our state. And we are definitely weirder than Dalton, by God. Carpet is all well and good, but find me a good bar with steamed pork-buns and good cocktails in Dalton, and then we'll talk...

Also: listing Hilton Head as the weirdest place in South Carolina... them's fighting words. I have nothing to add, just get out yer fire safe suit and hold on...
posted by 1f2frfbf at 8:14 PM on May 6, 2016


Oklahoma City is actually a nice place! It's also one of the biggest cities in the U.S. by area, but that's not counted so the point's moot. I can't speak much to Tulsa's quality, as I didn't spend my youth there, but central Oklahoma isn't the worst place to live by a long shot. As the old John Fullbright song goes, "Central Oklahoma is my land, is my country/ Eastern Oklahoma is a beautiful sight/ Northern Oklahoma might as well be Kansas/ You never go to Southern Oklahoma at night"

I feel like getting the *truly* most average city in the US would require a lot more parameters, and a lot better understanding of what makes places special. By rate of natural disasters, the greater OKC Metropolitan Area is probably one of the highest in the country, what with the constant droughts and earthquakes and tornadoes.
posted by brecc at 9:06 PM on May 6, 2016


I'm proud that California, especially the northern end, is tops at keeping it weird.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:23 AM on May 7, 2016


Yeah, New York isn't America. It's IN America, technically, but it's as American as a raspberry and smoked salmon samosa.
GuyZero

That's pretty American. In what other country are you going to find a raspberry and smoked salmon samosa?
posted by yeolcoatl at 2:49 PM on May 7, 2016


> That's pretty American. In what other country are you going to find a raspberry and smoked salmon samosa?

The things you do that most distinguish you from others are often very different from the things you do most frequently.
posted by benito.strauss at 7:51 PM on May 7, 2016


True, but both are critical components of an identity.
posted by yeolcoatl at 10:32 PM on May 7, 2016


That's pretty American. In what other country are you going to find a raspberry and smoked salmon samosa?

I dunno, this sounds pretty Swedish to me.
posted by maryr at 10:47 AM on May 9, 2016


Well, they do eat lakhs of lox there.
posted by benito.strauss at 11:08 AM on May 9, 2016 [1 favorite]


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