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October 13, 2016 10:58 AM Subscribe
Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced today that she would call a second referendum on independence if the UK opts for a hard Brexit. Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced today that she would call a second referendum on independence if the UK opts for a hard Brexit.
Addressing the UK prime minister, Teresa May, she said:
If you think for one single second that I’m not serious about doing what it takes to protect Scotland’s interests, then think again.
If you can’t - or won’t - allow us to protect our interests within the UK, then Scotland will have the right to decide, afresh, if it wants to take a different path.
A hard Brexit will change the UK fundamentally.
A UK out of the single market - isolated, inward looking, haemorrhaging jobs, investment and opportunities - will not be the same country that Scotland voted to stay part of in 2014.
If that’s the insecure, unstable prospect we face as part of the UK, then no one will have the right to deny Scotland the chance to choose a better future.She said the Scottish government would publish an independence referendum bill next week. In some respects, this sounded more like a negotiating gambit than a statement of intent.
She made remaining in the single market Scotland’s key priority.
The prime minister may have a mandate to take England and Wales out of the EU but she has no mandate whatsoever to remove any part of the UK from the single market.
She accused the Conservatives of embracing Ukip-style xenophobia and said their views had “no place in a civilised society”. Sturgeon said that even though 1m Scots voted for Brexit, they did not vote for the hard Brexit now on offer from the Tories.
"Of course, I know that one million of our fellow citizens voted to Leave. They did so for a range of legitimate reasons and as first minister, I have a duty to listen to, to understand and to respond to these reasons. But I suspect that many of those who voted to Leave, look now at the actions and rhetoric of the Tories and think ‘that’s not what I voted for’.
They may have voted to take back control.
But I can’t imagine many of them voted to hand control to the unholy trinity of Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox ...
They didn’t vote to throw economic rationality out of the window.
They didn’t vote to lower their own living standards or to sacrifice jobs and investment.
They didn’t vote for our businesses to face tariffs or for holiday-makers to need visas.
They didn’t vote for the scapegoating of foreigners."
If you can’t - or won’t - allow us to protect our interests within the UK, then Scotland will have the right to decide, afresh, if it wants to take a different path.
A hard Brexit will change the UK fundamentally.
A UK out of the single market - isolated, inward looking, haemorrhaging jobs, investment and opportunities - will not be the same country that Scotland voted to stay part of in 2014.
If that’s the insecure, unstable prospect we face as part of the UK, then no one will have the right to deny Scotland the chance to choose a better future.She said the Scottish government would publish an independence referendum bill next week. In some respects, this sounded more like a negotiating gambit than a statement of intent.
She made remaining in the single market Scotland’s key priority.
The prime minister may have a mandate to take England and Wales out of the EU but she has no mandate whatsoever to remove any part of the UK from the single market.
She accused the Conservatives of embracing Ukip-style xenophobia and said their views had “no place in a civilised society”. Sturgeon said that even though 1m Scots voted for Brexit, they did not vote for the hard Brexit now on offer from the Tories.
"Of course, I know that one million of our fellow citizens voted to Leave. They did so for a range of legitimate reasons and as first minister, I have a duty to listen to, to understand and to respond to these reasons. But I suspect that many of those who voted to Leave, look now at the actions and rhetoric of the Tories and think ‘that’s not what I voted for’.
They may have voted to take back control.
But I can’t imagine many of them voted to hand control to the unholy trinity of Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox ...
They didn’t vote to throw economic rationality out of the window.
They didn’t vote to lower their own living standards or to sacrifice jobs and investment.
They didn’t vote for our businesses to face tariffs or for holiday-makers to need visas.
They didn’t vote for the scapegoating of foreigners."
Pretty much all the arguments for staying died with the UK economy so I say good luck to them.
posted by Artw at 11:13 AM on October 13, 2016 [14 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:13 AM on October 13, 2016 [14 favorites]
It was also premature to threaten a second vote: the UK would be seeking a unique deal with the EU which could meet many of Sturgeon’s conditions, he said.
I was under the impression that the non-rosiest-glasses view sees a big gap between "would be seeking" and "is likely to get...."
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:20 AM on October 13, 2016 [8 favorites]
I was under the impression that the non-rosiest-glasses view sees a big gap between "would be seeking" and "is likely to get...."
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:20 AM on October 13, 2016 [8 favorites]
Couldn't agree more with Ms. Sturgeon.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 11:20 AM on October 13, 2016 [10 favorites]
posted by the quidnunc kid at 11:20 AM on October 13, 2016 [10 favorites]
UK ain't getting shit from the EU that the EU doesn't want to give it and is in a position to negotiate fuck all. That boat sailed.
posted by Artw at 11:21 AM on October 13, 2016 [21 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:21 AM on October 13, 2016 [21 favorites]
Couldn't agree more with Ms. Sturgeon.
Would you expect an independent Scotland to be more open to voting #1 quidnunc kid?
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:22 AM on October 13, 2016 [36 favorites]
Would you expect an independent Scotland to be more open to voting #1 quidnunc kid?
posted by GenjiandProust at 11:22 AM on October 13, 2016 [36 favorites]
An American politician would have conducted a shitload of polls before going out on this limb, wonder if she did....that is, I'm certain that as a leader of the SNP Sturgeon thinks as a matter of principal Scotland should be independent, but is she going into this game of chicken with May with conviction on her side, or conviction and the numbers, too?
It'd probably be worth the risk for the SNP either way; it wasn't so long ago that they were a distinctly minority party, IIRC. They've already proved themselves adept at seizing the right moments to shove public opinon in their direction.
Question: If May pushed forward with Brexit and loses Scotland, is that good or bad for the Tories? On the one hand, the PM who lost Scotland is not a good look. On the other, Labor is currently at its lowest ebb in decades, and an Scotland-less UK would be one in which the Tories would have a strong majority for the foreseeable, no? Would the Tories take that, at this stage?
posted by Diablevert at 11:23 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
It'd probably be worth the risk for the SNP either way; it wasn't so long ago that they were a distinctly minority party, IIRC. They've already proved themselves adept at seizing the right moments to shove public opinon in their direction.
Question: If May pushed forward with Brexit and loses Scotland, is that good or bad for the Tories? On the one hand, the PM who lost Scotland is not a good look. On the other, Labor is currently at its lowest ebb in decades, and an Scotland-less UK would be one in which the Tories would have a strong majority for the foreseeable, no? Would the Tories take that, at this stage?
posted by Diablevert at 11:23 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
okay but what's the cutesy nickname for scotland leaving the UK? Scexit? To me that seems like it should be pronounced with a "sc" like in "scene" rather than an "sc" as in "Scotland," so it's sort of sub-ideal for that reason...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:29 AM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:29 AM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
> okay but what's the cutesy nickname for scotland leaving the UK? ...To me that seems like it should be pronounced with a "sc" like
Scitfest.
posted by I-Write-Essays at 11:30 AM on October 13, 2016 [12 favorites]
Scitfest.
posted by I-Write-Essays at 11:30 AM on October 13, 2016 [12 favorites]
okay but what's the cutesy nickname for scotland leaving the UK?
#SasseNah
posted by Etrigan at 11:31 AM on October 13, 2016 [90 favorites]
#SasseNah
posted by Etrigan at 11:31 AM on October 13, 2016 [90 favorites]
Too close to the Irish/Scots Gaelic for England wanting to leave the EU - Sasamach
posted by kersplunk at 11:35 AM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by kersplunk at 11:35 AM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
Would you expect an independent Scotland to be more open to voting #1 quidnunc kid?
We merely look forward to the Scottish Crown being dis-unified with the English, and We shall therefore be pleased to present Ourselves before the Stone of Scone for any coronation rituals our new subjects may wish to execute upon Us.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 11:35 AM on October 13, 2016 [36 favorites]
We merely look forward to the Scottish Crown being dis-unified with the English, and We shall therefore be pleased to present Ourselves before the Stone of Scone for any coronation rituals our new subjects may wish to execute upon Us.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 11:35 AM on October 13, 2016 [36 favorites]
SEXIT
posted by infini at 11:51 AM on October 13, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by infini at 11:51 AM on October 13, 2016 [7 favorites]
Loxit
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:54 AM on October 13, 2016
posted by a lungful of dragon at 11:54 AM on October 13, 2016
Ah, but everyone knows that the REAL Stone of Scone is still hidden.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:55 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 11:55 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Wouldn't it be Scremain?
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 11:59 AM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 11:59 AM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
An American politician would have conducted a shitload of polls before going out on this limb, wonder if she did
Yes. Or at least, kind of, in that the SNP will have been paying very close attention to the poll numbers but it's such a heavily polled subject anyway that it's not just the SNP commissioning them (I don't actually know how many/often they have - they did their own 'listening exercise' recently, though).
They're also very keenly aware of what happened to those polling numbers during the last indyref campaign. Polls were showing something like 30% in favour of independence when
the campaign started, and it ended up 45% voting Yes. The number's been hanging around the 40s since then, with a brief blip upwards after the EU referendum result, so if the same pattern happens again then it would be Yes by a good way.
Obviously that's quite a big 'if', and things have changed to make independence less appealing to some - oil price has dropped a lot, Scotland currently running a fairly hefty budget deficit, for some big ones. But also, two of the main points for the No campaign during the last indyref were a) that Scotland would be out of the EU if it left, and b) Scotland would lose the stable, well-performing currency of the pound if it left. That's fairly fresh in people's memories. Also, with the political landscape having changed so much, it's hard to imagine how a No campaign this time round could do so well at presenting a cross-party unified front.
Also, if Westminster is seen as overriding the Scottish parliament over Brexit issues, that's going to go down very, very poorly in Scotland.
Question: If May pushed forward with Brexit and loses Scotland, is that good or bad for the Tories?
No Conservative PM is going to want to go down in history as 'the one that lost the Union'. Plus, the Scottish Conservatives are not doing too badly at the moment - they are a bigger party than Labour in the Scottish Parliament as of the 2016 elections. They used to do well in Scotland, and would very much like to have that base back - they don't want it gone for good.
As for what they're willing to do to keep Scotland in the union... we'll see, I suppose.
posted by Catseye at 12:00 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
Yes. Or at least, kind of, in that the SNP will have been paying very close attention to the poll numbers but it's such a heavily polled subject anyway that it's not just the SNP commissioning them (I don't actually know how many/often they have - they did their own 'listening exercise' recently, though).
They're also very keenly aware of what happened to those polling numbers during the last indyref campaign. Polls were showing something like 30% in favour of independence when
the campaign started, and it ended up 45% voting Yes. The number's been hanging around the 40s since then, with a brief blip upwards after the EU referendum result, so if the same pattern happens again then it would be Yes by a good way.
Obviously that's quite a big 'if', and things have changed to make independence less appealing to some - oil price has dropped a lot, Scotland currently running a fairly hefty budget deficit, for some big ones. But also, two of the main points for the No campaign during the last indyref were a) that Scotland would be out of the EU if it left, and b) Scotland would lose the stable, well-performing currency of the pound if it left. That's fairly fresh in people's memories. Also, with the political landscape having changed so much, it's hard to imagine how a No campaign this time round could do so well at presenting a cross-party unified front.
Also, if Westminster is seen as overriding the Scottish parliament over Brexit issues, that's going to go down very, very poorly in Scotland.
Question: If May pushed forward with Brexit and loses Scotland, is that good or bad for the Tories?
No Conservative PM is going to want to go down in history as 'the one that lost the Union'. Plus, the Scottish Conservatives are not doing too badly at the moment - they are a bigger party than Labour in the Scottish Parliament as of the 2016 elections. They used to do well in Scotland, and would very much like to have that base back - they don't want it gone for good.
As for what they're willing to do to keep Scotland in the union... we'll see, I suppose.
posted by Catseye at 12:00 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
Question: If May pushed forward with Brexit and loses Scotland, is that good or bad for the Tories? On the one hand, the PM who lost Scotland is not a good look. On the other, Labor is currently at its lowest ebb in decades, and an Scotland-less UK would be one in which the Tories would have a strong majority for the foreseeable, no? Would the Tories take that, at this stage?
Sadly I think the UK is a Tory stronghold for the foreseeable, anyway. I cannot envisage many Westminster parliamentary seats in Scotland becoming Labour in the future, near or medium-far (currently there is one scottish Labour MP in Westminster, one Conservative, and one Lib Dem. The other 56 MPs are all SNP now).
posted by stevedawg at 12:01 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Sadly I think the UK is a Tory stronghold for the foreseeable, anyway. I cannot envisage many Westminster parliamentary seats in Scotland becoming Labour in the future, near or medium-far (currently there is one scottish Labour MP in Westminster, one Conservative, and one Lib Dem. The other 56 MPs are all SNP now).
posted by stevedawg at 12:01 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
One of the smart things here is that May has given herself a mandate to do a whole bunch of things through the Brexit vote ("I represent the will of the 52% so my programme is right"). Which is a hard door to close now that Sturgeon, claiming the Scots who voted Remain, is doing the same thing but with far more legitimacy.
posted by litleozy at 12:01 PM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by litleozy at 12:01 PM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
Also: "Yexit", apparently. ("Yes" from the last independence campaign + "-exit"). I know, I know...
posted by Catseye at 12:02 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Catseye at 12:02 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
The Labour party was weak without Scotland even before totally imploding, so year, that might be England fucked. Possibly once it all goes crowsbows and eating each other a new political order will emerge?
posted by Artw at 12:05 PM on October 13, 2016
posted by Artw at 12:05 PM on October 13, 2016
Even Spain and Belgium have got to have some measure of empathy at this point.
Speaking of, Scotland would obviously be banking on becoming part of the EU but one of the suggested stumbling blocks were Spain, France etc who wouldn't want to encourage their own separatist movements. Is this still as big an issue as previously thought? I could see other EU members making this 'exceptional circumstances'?
posted by litleozy at 12:05 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
Speaking of, Scotland would obviously be banking on becoming part of the EU but one of the suggested stumbling blocks were Spain, France etc who wouldn't want to encourage their own separatist movements. Is this still as big an issue as previously thought? I could see other EU members making this 'exceptional circumstances'?
posted by litleozy at 12:05 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
Yes. The Catalan issue is actually one of the main reasons why Spain doesn't have a government right now.
She'll win this in a walk though. Any "Cosmopolitan Liberal Elite" who voted no the last time is voting yes this time.
The only fly in the ointment is the Oil revenue is a lot less meaningful.
posted by JPD at 12:11 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
She'll win this in a walk though. Any "Cosmopolitan Liberal Elite" who voted no the last time is voting yes this time.
The only fly in the ointment is the Oil revenue is a lot less meaningful.
posted by JPD at 12:11 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
#AlbaSeeinYa
posted by aaronetc at 12:14 PM on October 13, 2016 [30 favorites]
posted by aaronetc at 12:14 PM on October 13, 2016 [30 favorites]
>> Even Spain and Belgium have got to have some measure of empathy at this point.
> Speaking of, Scotland would obviously be banking on becoming part of the EU but one of the suggested stumbling blocks were Spain, France etc who wouldn't want to encourage their own separatist movements. Is this still as big an issue as previously thought? I could see other EU members making this 'exceptional circumstances'?
Yeah, from my uninformed American perspective (but I repeat myself), it seems like "okay separatist movements can get in as independent nations, but only if the nation they're separating from shits the bed altogether" seems like a reasonable precedent to set.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:16 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
> Speaking of, Scotland would obviously be banking on becoming part of the EU but one of the suggested stumbling blocks were Spain, France etc who wouldn't want to encourage their own separatist movements. Is this still as big an issue as previously thought? I could see other EU members making this 'exceptional circumstances'?
Yeah, from my uninformed American perspective (but I repeat myself), it seems like "okay separatist movements can get in as independent nations, but only if the nation they're separating from shits the bed altogether" seems like a reasonable precedent to set.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:16 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
"Yexit," to me, sounds like more like a way to describe Kim separating from Kanye.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:17 PM on October 13, 2016 [15 favorites]
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:17 PM on October 13, 2016 [15 favorites]
The only fly in the ointment is the Oil revenue is a lot less meaningful.
That won't be the only fly in the ointment. This time around I wholly expect the Tories to immediately threaten to put up a fence and a border gate on the M6.
posted by Talez at 12:18 PM on October 13, 2016
That won't be the only fly in the ointment. This time around I wholly expect the Tories to immediately threaten to put up a fence and a border gate on the M6.
posted by Talez at 12:18 PM on October 13, 2016
Sc-oot?
posted by GeckoDundee at 12:22 PM on October 13, 2016 [25 favorites]
posted by GeckoDundee at 12:22 PM on October 13, 2016 [25 favorites]
I would think Northern Ireland has a stronger motivation to leave compared to Scotland. Maybe Ireland might be one state some day?
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:22 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:22 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
This was fairly predictable from the SNP, and well played.
I think there is a good chance that there will be a second vote on Brexit in about 2.5 years and that in the end Brexit won't happen.
I watching carefully and somewhat cautious to see what happens in Northern Ireland.... That could involve bloodshed -the troubles are still fairly recent memories.
posted by Dr Ew at 12:25 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
I think there is a good chance that there will be a second vote on Brexit in about 2.5 years and that in the end Brexit won't happen.
I watching carefully and somewhat cautious to see what happens in Northern Ireland.... That could involve bloodshed -the troubles are still fairly recent memories.
posted by Dr Ew at 12:25 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
I would think Northern Ireland has a stronger motivation to leave compared to Scotland. Maybe Ireland might be one state some day?
Actually it's the opposite. They just (just? 1997 is almost twenty years away!) unfucked decades of the populace killing each other. Over half of the populace has asked for the status quo every year they have polled it since 1998.
posted by Talez at 12:26 PM on October 13, 2016 [11 favorites]
Actually it's the opposite. They just (just? 1997 is almost twenty years away!) unfucked decades of the populace killing each other. Over half of the populace has asked for the status quo every year they have polled it since 1998.
posted by Talez at 12:26 PM on October 13, 2016 [11 favorites]
I wish Scotland all the best, and I hope the whole UK disintegrates. Indeed, if Scotland left the UK and Ireland was reunited before the UK left the EU, I would seriously reconsider England staying in the EU.
posted by Emma May Smith at 12:27 PM on October 13, 2016
posted by Emma May Smith at 12:27 PM on October 13, 2016
I think there is a good chance that there will be a second vote on Brexit in about 2.5 years and that in the end Brexit won't happen.
May has stated that she intends to invoke Article 50 next March.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:31 PM on October 13, 2016 [5 favorites]
May has stated that she intends to invoke Article 50 next March.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:31 PM on October 13, 2016 [5 favorites]
The financial sector would probably be more happy to decamp to Edinburgh rather than Frankfurt.
posted by adamvasco at 12:32 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 12:32 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
The financial sector would probably be more happily to decamp to Edinburgh than Frankfurt.
They're going to Dublin.
posted by Talez at 12:34 PM on October 13, 2016 [5 favorites]
They're going to Dublin.
posted by Talez at 12:34 PM on October 13, 2016 [5 favorites]
In my head I'm writing a 2000AD style comic set in a future England that seeks to join a New United Kingdom (of Scotland, Wales and Irelands). Its to be called N.U.K.E. of course.
posted by rodlymight at 12:41 PM on October 13, 2016 [9 favorites]
posted by rodlymight at 12:41 PM on October 13, 2016 [9 favorites]
Actually it's the opposite. They just (just? 1997 is almost twenty years away!) unfucked decades of the populace killing each other. Over half of the populace has asked for the status quo every year they have polled it since 1998.
Always one of the saddest things about Brexit for me, touch wood it'll be fine but I doubt those voting Leave gave more than a second thought to the very real consequences to Northern Ireland...
posted by litleozy at 12:42 PM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
Always one of the saddest things about Brexit for me, touch wood it'll be fine but I doubt those voting Leave gave more than a second thought to the very real consequences to Northern Ireland...
posted by litleozy at 12:42 PM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
Deep Fried Exit
posted by PenDevil at 12:43 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by PenDevil at 12:43 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
but what's the cutesy nickname for scotland leaving the UK? Scexit?
ScottiSchism ?
posted by Lanark at 12:50 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
ScottiSchism ?
posted by Lanark at 12:50 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
> "She'll win this in a walk though. Any 'Cosmopolitan Liberal Elite' who voted no the last time is voting yes this time."
Hi, I think that's me.
I didn't vote No last time because I couldn't vote, being a U.S. citizen living in Scotland. However, as some of you here may remember, this being the only place where I really talked about it at all, I was philosophically opposed to IndyRef. To oversimplify, I'm a proponent of nations coming together, working in concert, freedom of movement, and greater cooperation. I thought IndyRef was part of a trend towards increased Balkanization that I didn't much like, and that post-IndyRef plans were vague, overly optimistic, and casually brushed aside obvious problems.
Welp. If there's a hard Brexit or anything like it, I've changed my mind.
If I thought IndyRef was Balkanization, a hard Brexit makes it look like a minor change of bureaucracy. If I thought IndyRef was poorly planned, Brexit of any kind makes it look like genius-level forethought in comparison. And if Scotland can cut itself free from England and eventually wend its way back to the EU, I hope it does.
I never imagined something as stupid as the Brexit referendum would pass. To those of you who warned me that it might and Scotland could have a better chance of staying in the EU if they left: You were right. I was wrong.
And next time around, if there is a next time around, I will probably be able to vote.
posted by kyrademon at 12:52 PM on October 13, 2016 [19 favorites]
Hi, I think that's me.
I didn't vote No last time because I couldn't vote, being a U.S. citizen living in Scotland. However, as some of you here may remember, this being the only place where I really talked about it at all, I was philosophically opposed to IndyRef. To oversimplify, I'm a proponent of nations coming together, working in concert, freedom of movement, and greater cooperation. I thought IndyRef was part of a trend towards increased Balkanization that I didn't much like, and that post-IndyRef plans were vague, overly optimistic, and casually brushed aside obvious problems.
Welp. If there's a hard Brexit or anything like it, I've changed my mind.
If I thought IndyRef was Balkanization, a hard Brexit makes it look like a minor change of bureaucracy. If I thought IndyRef was poorly planned, Brexit of any kind makes it look like genius-level forethought in comparison. And if Scotland can cut itself free from England and eventually wend its way back to the EU, I hope it does.
I never imagined something as stupid as the Brexit referendum would pass. To those of you who warned me that it might and Scotland could have a better chance of staying in the EU if they left: You were right. I was wrong.
And next time around, if there is a next time around, I will probably be able to vote.
posted by kyrademon at 12:52 PM on October 13, 2016 [19 favorites]
a fence and a border gate on the M6
Compared to a controlled border in Ireland, this would be incredibly trivial. The M6, A1, A68 & A7 must comprise 99% of border traffic, plus the two railway lines.
posted by ambrosen at 12:58 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Compared to a controlled border in Ireland, this would be incredibly trivial. The M6, A1, A68 & A7 must comprise 99% of border traffic, plus the two railway lines.
posted by ambrosen at 12:58 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
I voted against independence in '14, if there is anything like a hard Brexit I would almost certainly vote for. I consider myself British and European, the England that is emerging after Brexit is not a place I want to be part of.
posted by epo at 1:02 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by epo at 1:02 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Just checked, Hadrian's wall does not actually run along the Anglo-Scott border. Which is a shame, as it would have been cool to see it rebuilt.
posted by Hactar at 1:06 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Hactar at 1:06 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
#ScotFree
posted by zamboni at 1:07 PM on October 13, 2016 [41 favorites]
posted by zamboni at 1:07 PM on October 13, 2016 [41 favorites]
"> okay but what's the cutesy nickname for scotland leaving the UK? ...To me that seems like it should be pronounced with a "sc" like"
Yexit
posted by burr1545 at 1:10 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Yexit
posted by burr1545 at 1:10 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
If the Westminster government takes a hard line that the referendum decided the Scottish question for all time and future referenda are illegal, wouldn't there be some very severe laws they could bring to bear against any Scottish leader that defied them? I.e., wouldn't calling an illegal referendum to break up the country come under sedition or treason or some similarly heavy charge?
(Whether they'd do so would, of course, depend on politics. Having some rebellious Scots to crush could be less bad than being reduced to a rump state.)
posted by acb at 1:16 PM on October 13, 2016
(Whether they'd do so would, of course, depend on politics. Having some rebellious Scots to crush could be less bad than being reduced to a rump state.)
posted by acb at 1:16 PM on October 13, 2016
if Deutsche Bank really needs to be rescued, there might not be much of an EU to leave in 2.5 years...
posted by ennui.bz at 1:18 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by ennui.bz at 1:18 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Even if a majority of Scots ultimately end up being in favor of staying in the Union, I think that this it's a savvy move on Sturgeon's part to keep this issue on the table, and I suspect her constituents will see it as such.
The threat of another independence referendum grants Scotland a significantly more powerful negotiating position, and will allow Sturgeon's government to negotiate terms that are more strongly in Scotland's favor, even if the threat of secession is hollow.
If Westminster decides to screw over Scotland, it's pretty easy to see how that threat would become much less hollow.
"We might leave, and if you fuck with us, we'll definitely leave" is a savvy (and probably accurate) position for the Scottish government to take.
posted by schmod at 1:21 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
The threat of another independence referendum grants Scotland a significantly more powerful negotiating position, and will allow Sturgeon's government to negotiate terms that are more strongly in Scotland's favor, even if the threat of secession is hollow.
If Westminster decides to screw over Scotland, it's pretty easy to see how that threat would become much less hollow.
"We might leave, and if you fuck with us, we'll definitely leave" is a savvy (and probably accurate) position for the Scottish government to take.
posted by schmod at 1:21 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
#Scout
posted by Shepherd at 1:23 PM on October 13, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by Shepherd at 1:23 PM on October 13, 2016 [7 favorites]
I'm a bit confused here - does the Scottish Parliament have the constitutional power to call a second referendum? The first one was only achieved through a transfer of power from the UK government.
Yeah, on actually reading the article - it says "Sturgeon faces substantial obstacles to staging a second independence vote....Holyrood requires Westminster’s legal authority to stage one." So surely May can just ignore any referendum anyway?
posted by Pink Frost at 1:29 PM on October 13, 2016
Yeah, on actually reading the article - it says "Sturgeon faces substantial obstacles to staging a second independence vote....Holyrood requires Westminster’s legal authority to stage one." So surely May can just ignore any referendum anyway?
posted by Pink Frost at 1:29 PM on October 13, 2016
If the Westminster government takes a hard line that the referendum decided the Scottish question for all time and future referenda are illegal, wouldn't there be some very severe laws they could bring to bear against any Scottish leader that defied them? I.e., wouldn't calling an illegal referendum to break up the country come under sedition or treason or some similarly heavy charge?
The scottish need to request the right to hold a referendum from the UK government, and it's up to the UK govt to decide whether to grant them permission to stage the referendum. I can't imagine it would ever get to the stage where the Scottish govt held an illegal referendum, the sticking point would be one step before if they were refused permission.
Which would be politically unwise for May to do, but who knows what could happen I guess! Old political mores seem to have been thrown out the window these days.
posted by stevedawg at 1:32 PM on October 13, 2016
The scottish need to request the right to hold a referendum from the UK government, and it's up to the UK govt to decide whether to grant them permission to stage the referendum. I can't imagine it would ever get to the stage where the Scottish govt held an illegal referendum, the sticking point would be one step before if they were refused permission.
Which would be politically unwise for May to do, but who knows what could happen I guess! Old political mores seem to have been thrown out the window these days.
posted by stevedawg at 1:32 PM on October 13, 2016
I'm all for this if it means I can trade in my British Passport for a Scottish/EU one, while living in North America.
posted by blue_beetle at 1:39 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by blue_beetle at 1:39 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
This is a sensible move by Sturgeon, who knows - in addition to all the variables mentioned upthread - that whatever happens afterwards, any second Indyref is almost certainly going to be the last. So she wants to have as many options lined up as she can.
She said that she wants the UK to stay in the EU free market and to have freedom of movement. If that's not available, then Scotland to keep those and England and Wales can do what they want. And if that's not possible without independence, then independence it has to be.
Her first goal is shared by the majority of the House of Commons, and the SNP is a major part of that voting bloc, so with moves afoot to force May to get Parliamentary permission for the Brexit negotiation stance - something that is currently going through the courts - Sturgeon may have actual leverage here, although whether that extends to the NeoDevo of the second stage is much less clear. For the second option, Scotland would have to be given power to set immigration and negotiate trade deals independently of Westminster: not impossible, but raising a whole new set of issues If Scotland has freedom of movement and England doesn't, there'd have to be de facto Scottish citizenship, for a start.
So it's over to Madame Tazza, who has set her face against all of the above, but does not have as much control over either Parliament or her party as she likes to pretend.
The biggest extra unknown in this, which is something that may not be visible until after Article 50 is triggered, is what the EU negotiators will say to any or all of the above.
Fun times. Anyone for an Edi meet-up?
posted by Devonian at 1:52 PM on October 13, 2016 [7 favorites]
She said that she wants the UK to stay in the EU free market and to have freedom of movement. If that's not available, then Scotland to keep those and England and Wales can do what they want. And if that's not possible without independence, then independence it has to be.
Her first goal is shared by the majority of the House of Commons, and the SNP is a major part of that voting bloc, so with moves afoot to force May to get Parliamentary permission for the Brexit negotiation stance - something that is currently going through the courts - Sturgeon may have actual leverage here, although whether that extends to the NeoDevo of the second stage is much less clear. For the second option, Scotland would have to be given power to set immigration and negotiate trade deals independently of Westminster: not impossible, but raising a whole new set of issues If Scotland has freedom of movement and England doesn't, there'd have to be de facto Scottish citizenship, for a start.
So it's over to Madame Tazza, who has set her face against all of the above, but does not have as much control over either Parliament or her party as she likes to pretend.
The biggest extra unknown in this, which is something that may not be visible until after Article 50 is triggered, is what the EU negotiators will say to any or all of the above.
Fun times. Anyone for an Edi meet-up?
posted by Devonian at 1:52 PM on October 13, 2016 [7 favorites]
does the Scottish Parliament have the constitutional power to call a second referendum?
Everyone seems to get hung up on the concept of Parliament as sovereign, but in this particular case that completely begs the question. There's a general principle of international law that says people have a right to self determination (it's written into the UN Charter for example), but, especially in the context of "Brexit", that kind of begs the question here too. If Parliament is sovereign*, then the UN (and of course the EU) can't tell it what to do either. There's also the question of what exactly the Treaty of Union did, which is glossed over every time the UK is treated as just England (and Wales) plus one.
But ultimately none of this matters. In the UK the rule is "Might is Right". The War of the Three Kingdoms (formerly known as the Civil War) pretty much established that Parliament ultimately answers all these questions. Of course, that's just because the Parliamentarians won.
If Sturgeon can hold a referendum, and if the voters vote for independence, then it won't matter what the constitutional experts say.
Internally, the question of UDI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence) has historically been a big one for the SNP, but it was always theoretical. If there's ever an actual situation where a pro-independence referendum result hasn't been "authorised" by Westminster, then it will all come down to who blinks first.
*More correctly, the Crown in cabinet, but ask Charles I how that works.
posted by GeckoDundee at 2:24 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Everyone seems to get hung up on the concept of Parliament as sovereign, but in this particular case that completely begs the question. There's a general principle of international law that says people have a right to self determination (it's written into the UN Charter for example), but, especially in the context of "Brexit", that kind of begs the question here too. If Parliament is sovereign*, then the UN (and of course the EU) can't tell it what to do either. There's also the question of what exactly the Treaty of Union did, which is glossed over every time the UK is treated as just England (and Wales) plus one.
But ultimately none of this matters. In the UK the rule is "Might is Right". The War of the Three Kingdoms (formerly known as the Civil War) pretty much established that Parliament ultimately answers all these questions. Of course, that's just because the Parliamentarians won.
If Sturgeon can hold a referendum, and if the voters vote for independence, then it won't matter what the constitutional experts say.
Internally, the question of UDI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence) has historically been a big one for the SNP, but it was always theoretical. If there's ever an actual situation where a pro-independence referendum result hasn't been "authorised" by Westminster, then it will all come down to who blinks first.
*More correctly, the Crown in cabinet, but ask Charles I how that works.
posted by GeckoDundee at 2:24 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
How do you have an independent Scotland without free movement to England?
How do you have an independent Scotland without more North Sea oil money than exists?
How do you have an independent Scotland without either the EU variances allowed the former UK or the subsidies given to Ireland?
What on Earth would the trade relations between an independent Scotland and England be?
The SNP has built itself around the political idea that Scotland can skip out on the consequences of the UK having spent the North Sea money on making bankers very rich, building commuter villages, and speculating on real estate... what's that going to look like in 2.5 years?
posted by ennui.bz at 2:36 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
How do you have an independent Scotland without more North Sea oil money than exists?
How do you have an independent Scotland without either the EU variances allowed the former UK or the subsidies given to Ireland?
What on Earth would the trade relations between an independent Scotland and England be?
The SNP has built itself around the political idea that Scotland can skip out on the consequences of the UK having spent the North Sea money on making bankers very rich, building commuter villages, and speculating on real estate... what's that going to look like in 2.5 years?
posted by ennui.bz at 2:36 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
It's hard Brexit or no Brexit at all, says EU council president.
His metaphor for the UK-EU negotiations does run off the rails a bit: "That was pure illusion, that one can have the EU cake and eat it too. To all who believe in it, I propose a simple experiment. Buy a cake, eat it, and see if it is still there on the plate. The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us. There will be no cakes on the table. For anyone. There will be only salt and vinegar."
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:37 PM on October 13, 2016 [10 favorites]
His metaphor for the UK-EU negotiations does run off the rails a bit: "That was pure illusion, that one can have the EU cake and eat it too. To all who believe in it, I propose a simple experiment. Buy a cake, eat it, and see if it is still there on the plate. The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us. There will be no cakes on the table. For anyone. There will be only salt and vinegar."
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:37 PM on October 13, 2016 [10 favorites]
"There will be only salt and vinegar."
It’s no coincidence that is the most popular flavour of crisps in... Scotland. It is a very subtle allusion to full EU Council support for independence. Thus spake Tusk.
posted by bitteschoen at 2:45 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
It’s no coincidence that is the most popular flavour of crisps in... Scotland. It is a very subtle allusion to full EU Council support for independence. Thus spake Tusk.
posted by bitteschoen at 2:45 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
Referendum up
Mark them ballots high
Wave it in their face
Tell 'em Brits bye
Brits bye
Scotland's thinking 'bout EU
posted by nicebookrack at 2:48 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Mark them ballots high
Wave it in their face
Tell 'em Brits bye
Brits bye
Scotland's thinking 'bout EU
posted by nicebookrack at 2:48 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Professor of Politics at Strathclyde on the radio just now on the Scottish polls - just before the Brexit referendum, 90 percent of Yes and 90 percent of Nos said they'd vote the same way in a second Indyref. Afterwards, it was 80 percent and 80 percent - so lots of churn but no overall movement.
So it's all fuzzy enough that while Sturgeon can't guarantee success in a referendum, May can't be sure that a hard-line stance against the SNP won't move public opinion in favour of independence.
I think we're still in the phoney war stage of Brexit - people haven't quite had to think about what will actually happen. But fuel and food prices are about to go up substantially, the UK is about to be kicked out of various security intelligence agreements, and while the right-wing press is busy claiming this is either nothing to do with Brexit or the result of vindictiveness by the Other, this might not last long.
As for 'how will an independent Scotland cope...', it's just as germane to ask how Scotland will cope in a post-Brexit UK with 10 percent of GDP gone and a permanent English Tory majority with no money?
posted by Devonian at 2:50 PM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
So it's all fuzzy enough that while Sturgeon can't guarantee success in a referendum, May can't be sure that a hard-line stance against the SNP won't move public opinion in favour of independence.
I think we're still in the phoney war stage of Brexit - people haven't quite had to think about what will actually happen. But fuel and food prices are about to go up substantially, the UK is about to be kicked out of various security intelligence agreements, and while the right-wing press is busy claiming this is either nothing to do with Brexit or the result of vindictiveness by the Other, this might not last long.
As for 'how will an independent Scotland cope...', it's just as germane to ask how Scotland will cope in a post-Brexit UK with 10 percent of GDP gone and a permanent English Tory majority with no money?
posted by Devonian at 2:50 PM on October 13, 2016 [6 favorites]
Didn't we establish in a previous thread that Britain has literally no power to "opt" for a particular style of Brexit since, in the current situation, it will be served whatever style the EU feels is appropriate.
I mean, I my residual Hibernian DNA feel all warm when Scots pollies thump the table about independence (however impractical) but the premise seems incorrect. What have I misunderstood?
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 2:59 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
I mean, I my residual Hibernian DNA feel all warm when Scots pollies thump the table about independence (however impractical) but the premise seems incorrect. What have I misunderstood?
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 2:59 PM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Couple comments deleted. marienbad, you've got a pretty bad track record of behavior in Brexit-adjacent discussions and at this point you need to just give them a pass entirely going forward.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:02 PM on October 13, 2016 [12 favorites]
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:02 PM on October 13, 2016 [12 favorites]
The oil price is about half what is was at the time of the first indeyref, and that will have bitten in parts of Scotland and undermined the argument it could survive on oil revenue for some.
How much could they make from selling Scottish EU passports to the likes of me?
posted by biffa at 3:05 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
How much could they make from selling Scottish EU passports to the likes of me?
posted by biffa at 3:05 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
They'll want to come back at the first sign of any hardship.
posted by Burn_IT at 3:18 PM on October 13, 2016
posted by Burn_IT at 3:18 PM on October 13, 2016
OTOH, if the United Kingdom of England and Wales does become a reactionary UKIP fiefdom, where foreigners and foreign ideas are unwelcome, and after they close down the last polski sklep they start on the gay bars and Thai restaurants and trendy bars, where all the food is stodgy and all the art is figurative, groceries are sold in pounds and ounces and CAMRA has statutory power to approve or prohibit beverages for sale, where young people do national service picking fruit that the Lithuanians used to pick, and they've also brought back the cane in schools for good measure, Scotland could stand to benefit from a brain drain of liberal-minded and forward-looking émigrés, sort of like all the Bauhaus graduates who ended up teaching at American and British art schools in the 1930s. It'd probably be easier moving to Edinburgh or Glasgow than to Berlin or Amsterdam. The result of this would be that various creative and cultural industries that flourished in London (or Bristol or Cambridge or Manchester) would end up migrating north, while England stagnates.
posted by acb at 3:21 PM on October 13, 2016 [11 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:21 PM on October 13, 2016 [11 favorites]
Or 'August in Edinburgh', as it's already known.
posted by Devonian at 3:25 PM on October 13, 2016 [11 favorites]
posted by Devonian at 3:25 PM on October 13, 2016 [11 favorites]
BREAKING NEWS: Marmite Survival After a ‘Brexit’ Scare Comes With a Price [The New York Times]
“But they probably never thought it would come to this. Fears that Marmite and other British classics, like the PG Tips brand of tea, might disappear from store shelves had gripped Britons after reports that the supermarket chain Tesco and the owner of those brands, the British-Dutch consumer goods company Unilever, were locked in a price dispute over who should bear the cost of the weakening pound. Marmite was briefly unavailable in Tesco’s online market, and store supplies dwindled.”posted by Fizz at 3:35 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
okay but what's the cutesy nickname for scotland leaving the UK? Scexit?
Scotch Exit is fine, I'd say.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 3:50 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
Scotch Exit is fine, I'd say.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 3:50 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
As for 'how will an independent Scotland cope...', it's just as germane to ask how Scotland will cope in a post-Brexit UK with 10 percent of GDP gone and a permanent English Tory majority with no money?
England will have been Scotland's biggest "trading" partner: there's no set of reasonable trade agreements which will square this with the devalued pound and EU regulations unless there is an extremely soft Brexit. An independent Scotland and ex-EU England without free movement is an instant international and humanitarian crisis, with free movement it is an international and humanitarian crisis.
Scottish independence post-Brexit is even more absurd than Brexit is. The only way it could have worked is if England and Scotland were both within the EU.
posted by ennui.bz at 3:50 PM on October 13, 2016
England will have been Scotland's biggest "trading" partner: there's no set of reasonable trade agreements which will square this with the devalued pound and EU regulations unless there is an extremely soft Brexit. An independent Scotland and ex-EU England without free movement is an instant international and humanitarian crisis, with free movement it is an international and humanitarian crisis.
Scottish independence post-Brexit is even more absurd than Brexit is. The only way it could have worked is if England and Scotland were both within the EU.
posted by ennui.bz at 3:50 PM on October 13, 2016
Or 'August in Edinburgh', as it's already known.
“The Year August Never Ended”.
posted by acb at 4:00 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
“The Year August Never Ended”.
posted by acb at 4:00 PM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
I'd love them to stay, but honestly I can't help but keep thinking of the line "fly you fools!"
posted by edd at 4:03 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by edd at 4:03 PM on October 13, 2016 [4 favorites]
Scotch Exit is fine, I'd say.
Scotch Eggxit.
posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:25 PM on October 13, 2016 [8 favorites]
Scotch Eggxit.
posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:25 PM on October 13, 2016 [8 favorites]
ennui.bz, can you elaborate on the "crisis" you forecast and its basis please? I can see how the situation, as you've described it, leads to genuine problems for an independent Scotland. I'm less clear as to how those play out as dramatically in the absence of serious ethnic / religious tensions or a sudden (and unlikely) cessation of trade. It possible I'm missing a crucial part of the picture you've painted.
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 4:29 PM on October 13, 2016
posted by Lesser Spotted Potoroo at 4:29 PM on October 13, 2016
Tangentially, I can't help imagining that Ken MacLeod and (MeFi's Own) Charlie Stross are currently alternating between laughter and tears while hurling unfinished drafts on a roaring bonfire...
And I miss Iain Banks.
posted by prismatic7 at 4:31 PM on October 13, 2016 [10 favorites]
And I miss Iain Banks.
posted by prismatic7 at 4:31 PM on October 13, 2016 [10 favorites]
And I miss Iain Banks.
And Christopher Hitchens.
This last year, I've been thinking quite a bit about Brexit and what he might have had to say about it. I was not always in agreement with his particular political world views, but he was a damned fine essayist and I think he would have provoked some fascinating insight into this discussion.
posted by Fizz at 4:48 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
And Christopher Hitchens.
This last year, I've been thinking quite a bit about Brexit and what he might have had to say about it. I was not always in agreement with his particular political world views, but he was a damned fine essayist and I think he would have provoked some fascinating insight into this discussion.
posted by Fizz at 4:48 PM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
I saw all the pro Brexit people waving Union Jacks before the election. And I thought, you know, you're going to lose the blue in that flag.
posted by persona au gratin at 12:39 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by persona au gratin at 12:39 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
prismatic7: Ken and I are both writing far-future space fiction for the next few years. It's the only way to be safe.
posted by cstross at 1:23 AM on October 14, 2016 [10 favorites]
posted by cstross at 1:23 AM on October 14, 2016 [10 favorites]
On oil: oil is irrelevant, in the long term. We (the human species, not just Scotland) can't keep burning the stuff, and even if Scotland was sitting on Saudi-scale reserves it would be a rapidly depreciating asset as vehicle transport mostly cuts over to electricity powered by other energy sources.
On the other hand, even without oil Scotland is a net energy exporter. We've got 20% of Europe's tidal power potential, and so many wind turbines -- most of the UK's installed capacity -- that on windy days our local renewable base exceeds 100% of electricity demand; we're exporting power to the English grid, and, more importantly, all those companies with expertise in building offshore oil platforms are now getting really good at building giant big-ass offshore wind turbines.
Arguing against Scottish independence on grounds of "the oil won't pay for it" is a very backward-looking -- not to mention short-sighted -- argument. Admittedly it's hard to make a bulletproof argument based on future resources that aren't fully on stream yet, but I think the writing is on the wall on this one, and another IndyRef in 5 years, or even 2, is going to hear very different rhetoric about energy exports.
posted by cstross at 1:29 AM on October 14, 2016 [25 favorites]
On the other hand, even without oil Scotland is a net energy exporter. We've got 20% of Europe's tidal power potential, and so many wind turbines -- most of the UK's installed capacity -- that on windy days our local renewable base exceeds 100% of electricity demand; we're exporting power to the English grid, and, more importantly, all those companies with expertise in building offshore oil platforms are now getting really good at building giant big-ass offshore wind turbines.
Arguing against Scottish independence on grounds of "the oil won't pay for it" is a very backward-looking -- not to mention short-sighted -- argument. Admittedly it's hard to make a bulletproof argument based on future resources that aren't fully on stream yet, but I think the writing is on the wall on this one, and another IndyRef in 5 years, or even 2, is going to hear very different rhetoric about energy exports.
posted by cstross at 1:29 AM on October 14, 2016 [25 favorites]
Regarding borders and free movement with England (/Wales/NI, although obviously the land border is the big one) - Northern Ireland's situation is important here. If the UK government is saying that it can resolve post-Brexit border issues without a hard border between NI and RoI,* maintaining the Common Travel Area, then the Scottish government can just say "okay, whatever you're doing there, do the same thing here." (To which the answer could of course be "no", but that would be widely perceived as being punitive for the sake of it, which is likely to push support for independence even higher.)
* whether this will actually be possible is a whole other issue, but at present at least that's the line they're going with.
posted by Catseye at 2:25 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
* whether this will actually be possible is a whole other issue, but at present at least that's the line they're going with.
posted by Catseye at 2:25 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
You Can't Tip a Buick: ">>> Even Spain and Belgium have got to have some measure of empathy at this point.The important difference would be that in the case of an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, the less-than-United Kingdom wouldn't get a say because ... well, because they've left. Applications to join the EU requires an unanimous yes from the EU Council. As long as e.g. Spain stays in the EU they can block breakaway Catalunya from joining.
>> Speaking of, Scotland would obviously be banking on becoming part of the EU but one of the suggested stumbling blocks were Spain, France etc who wouldn't want to encourage their own separatist movements. Is this still as big an issue as previously thought? I could see other EU members making this 'exceptional circumstances'?
> Yeah, from my uninformed American perspective (but I repeat myself), it seems like "okay separatist movements can get in as independent nations, but only if the nation they're separating from shits the bed altogether" seems like a reasonable precedent to set."
posted by brokkr at 2:36 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
UK No
(Works better if you pronounce 'UK' as a two-letter word)
posted by krinklyfig at 3:22 AM on October 14, 2016
(Works better if you pronounce 'UK' as a two-letter word)
posted by krinklyfig at 3:22 AM on October 14, 2016
UK No
But this will end up getting pronounced "you-KAY-no," and everyone will imagine a volcano spewing ukuleles, whether for good or evil.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:17 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
But this will end up getting pronounced "you-KAY-no," and everyone will imagine a volcano spewing ukuleles, whether for good or evil.
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:17 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
I can't imagine the British Royal Family would be too keen on a Scottish Exit. No more purring Brenda!
posted by asok at 4:52 AM on October 14, 2016
posted by asok at 4:52 AM on October 14, 2016
In August I was invited to meet Nicola Sturgeon and members of her cabinet together with some 350 other EU nationals. We were invited to ask the Scottish Goverment any question we'd like and afterwards we mingled with senior Scottish politicians who wanted to hear from EU citizens. It was an interesting event - it dealt with everything from housing and social issues to trade and the economy.
Let's just say that I'm completely unsurprised to see Sturgeon take formal steps towards another referendum. Brexit is a massive gamechanger in a political landscape that was already hugely changed from 2014.
posted by kariebookish at 6:15 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
Let's just say that I'm completely unsurprised to see Sturgeon take formal steps towards another referendum. Brexit is a massive gamechanger in a political landscape that was already hugely changed from 2014.
posted by kariebookish at 6:15 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
Meanwhile, the huge EU-Canada trade deal that's been hailed by some hard Brexiters as something we could just sorta pick up, repaint and reuse isn't doing so well just weeks from signing.
tl;dr - trade deals are hard. This is why the Treasury modelled decades under WTO, But that didn't look nice, so of course it was scaremongering.
Meanwhile, Theresa May says that it doesn't matter if the Scots want to leave, they said they didn't once so there's an end to it. It's important to respect the wishes of the people. And although the Scots said they wanted to remain in the EU, they can't and there's an end to it. By 'respecting the wishes of the people', she means 'English people'
Uppity bloody Scots. Why can't they just accept their place?
posted by Devonian at 6:28 AM on October 14, 2016 [3 favorites]
tl;dr - trade deals are hard. This is why the Treasury modelled decades under WTO, But that didn't look nice, so of course it was scaremongering.
Meanwhile, Theresa May says that it doesn't matter if the Scots want to leave, they said they didn't once so there's an end to it. It's important to respect the wishes of the people. And although the Scots said they wanted to remain in the EU, they can't and there's an end to it. By 'respecting the wishes of the people', she means 'English people'
Uppity bloody Scots. Why can't they just accept their place?
posted by Devonian at 6:28 AM on October 14, 2016 [3 favorites]
I saw all the pro Brexit people waving Union Jacks before the election. And I thought, you know, you're going to lose the blue in that flag.
Not all, no. These constitutional tensions are very welcome because they'll eventually lead to the end of the UK. And if the UK ends a whole chunk of history, cultural and social outlook, ends with it.
It's worth bearing in mind, once again, that Leavers in England tended to be English-identified and Remainers British-identified. One of these groups will deal very easily, mentally-speaking, with Scottish independence. Their country isn't going to disappear but reappear.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:58 AM on October 14, 2016 [3 favorites]
Not all, no. These constitutional tensions are very welcome because they'll eventually lead to the end of the UK. And if the UK ends a whole chunk of history, cultural and social outlook, ends with it.
It's worth bearing in mind, once again, that Leavers in England tended to be English-identified and Remainers British-identified. One of these groups will deal very easily, mentally-speaking, with Scottish independence. Their country isn't going to disappear but reappear.
posted by Emma May Smith at 6:58 AM on October 14, 2016 [3 favorites]
As per Wikipedia, "The area now called England was first inhabited by modern humans during the Upper Palaeolithic period, but takes its name from the Angles, one of the Germanic tribes who settled during the 5th and 6th centuries." It's funny cos it's true.
posted by billiebee at 7:03 AM on October 14, 2016
posted by billiebee at 7:03 AM on October 14, 2016
I voted Yes. I will do so again.
What has surprised me is just how wildly 2015 and 2016 (especially) have diverged from even the looniest post-Indyref political landscapes we discussed two years ago. The entire No campaign was built on the foundation of the strength, unity, political, economic and global power of the United Kingdom as a state.
That foundation is crumbling faster than I would ever have believed. Sometimes I think I've accidentally stumbled into SNP fan-fic.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:22 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
What has surprised me is just how wildly 2015 and 2016 (especially) have diverged from even the looniest post-Indyref political landscapes we discussed two years ago. The entire No campaign was built on the foundation of the strength, unity, political, economic and global power of the United Kingdom as a state.
That foundation is crumbling faster than I would ever have believed. Sometimes I think I've accidentally stumbled into SNP fan-fic.
posted by Happy Dave at 7:22 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
And in other news today, membership of Theresa May's 'Brexit Committee' includes...
This gets forgotten a lot when Scottish independence is discussed outside Scotland - it's all kilts and angry people with banners and freeeeeedom!, etc etc. I have spoken to otherwise well-informed and intelligent people who seemed genuinely surprised that Scottish politics included anything other than independence, because the SNP are in power and presumably they sit around watching Braveheart all day or something? And that kind of discussion vastly underestimates how much else is at play.
People in Scotland trust the Scottish government far more to represent their interests than they do the UK government. This isn't an SNP thing specifically - it was also the case with previous Scottish governments, and is the case with devolved administrations generally. And respecting devolution was a big issue in the last independence referendum with The Vow - not only do we take you seriously, Scotland, but we'll even give you more powers if you vote to stay in the Union.
Even this news is getting largely reported on as "SNP propose another referendum", and not "SNP propose another draft referendum to be ready to go if their Single Market proposal is ignored and Article 50 gets invoked anyway". Which I concede is a less snappy headline. But it's an important distinction, because if there's a Yes vote to independence this time round, it'll be won not by flags and Braveheart but by the Yes campaign saying: see, we've been overruled here, we've been left out here, our proposals have been dismissed, our Parliament has been disregarded, even the Conservatives' own Secretary of State for Scotland was seen as less important to the Brexit negotiations than Andrea Leadsom - see, we need independence because devolution is not enough.
(* overcautious caveat there, but given what 2016 politics has already thrown at us, I wouldn't be surprised if 2017's big debate is on trade negotiations with sentient seahorses from a parallel dimension who have sewn up the unobtanium market.)
posted by Catseye at 7:37 AM on October 14, 2016 [7 favorites]
There are no permanent spots for the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland secretaries, who are listed as attending on an “as required” basis. There are also no positions for the attorney general’s office or justice ministry.I think* the central issue around a (possible, possible...) new independence referendum will be who can make the most convincing case about whether Scotland is getting treated seriously by the UK government - that its interests are taken seriously, its vote on the EU referendum is taken seriously, the legitimacy of its devolved government is taken seriously.
[...]
Also reported to be members are former leave campaigners whose departments are less intrinsically connected to the process: Andrea Leadsom at environment, Chris Grayling at transport, and Priti Patel, the international development secretary.
This gets forgotten a lot when Scottish independence is discussed outside Scotland - it's all kilts and angry people with banners and freeeeeedom!, etc etc. I have spoken to otherwise well-informed and intelligent people who seemed genuinely surprised that Scottish politics included anything other than independence, because the SNP are in power and presumably they sit around watching Braveheart all day or something? And that kind of discussion vastly underestimates how much else is at play.
People in Scotland trust the Scottish government far more to represent their interests than they do the UK government. This isn't an SNP thing specifically - it was also the case with previous Scottish governments, and is the case with devolved administrations generally. And respecting devolution was a big issue in the last independence referendum with The Vow - not only do we take you seriously, Scotland, but we'll even give you more powers if you vote to stay in the Union.
Even this news is getting largely reported on as "SNP propose another referendum", and not "SNP propose another draft referendum to be ready to go if their Single Market proposal is ignored and Article 50 gets invoked anyway". Which I concede is a less snappy headline. But it's an important distinction, because if there's a Yes vote to independence this time round, it'll be won not by flags and Braveheart but by the Yes campaign saying: see, we've been overruled here, we've been left out here, our proposals have been dismissed, our Parliament has been disregarded, even the Conservatives' own Secretary of State for Scotland was seen as less important to the Brexit negotiations than Andrea Leadsom - see, we need independence because devolution is not enough.
(* overcautious caveat there, but given what 2016 politics has already thrown at us, I wouldn't be surprised if 2017's big debate is on trade negotiations with sentient seahorses from a parallel dimension who have sewn up the unobtanium market.)
posted by Catseye at 7:37 AM on October 14, 2016 [7 favorites]
Andrew Marr: Scotland and the Battle For Britain (Pt2) takes a look at then history of the SNP & Scottish nationalism in the wake of
a: the failed independence referendum and
b: the Brexit vote.
The SNP was, for a long time, the preserve of romantics and quirks, and was considered a Protestant party; Labor had the Catholic vote sewn up. Then Labor pushed the notion of "The Tories have no mandate in Scotland" thinking that they were the only alternative. The SNP then took the idea and basically said "No mandate in Scotland applies to Westminster, not just the Conservatives".
It looks at the economics, political personae/cultures, who voted which way, and how the Scotland of Marr's youth (Conservative, masculine-oriented, Unionist) developed into one where women fill the corridors of power and are talking about leaving the U.K.
Nicola Sturgeon comments in it that many Scots voted no to Independence because they saw it as a threat to their membership in the EU. A substantial number voted against Brexit for the same reason.
The two films end with the question "Will Brexit trigger a second Indyref?" Now we know the answer.
As a 'Murrican who owns a kilt (California State Tartan), I found this a really useful bit of co text and history.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:23 AM on October 14, 2016 [3 favorites]
a: the failed independence referendum and
b: the Brexit vote.
The SNP was, for a long time, the preserve of romantics and quirks, and was considered a Protestant party; Labor had the Catholic vote sewn up. Then Labor pushed the notion of "The Tories have no mandate in Scotland" thinking that they were the only alternative. The SNP then took the idea and basically said "No mandate in Scotland applies to Westminster, not just the Conservatives".
It looks at the economics, political personae/cultures, who voted which way, and how the Scotland of Marr's youth (Conservative, masculine-oriented, Unionist) developed into one where women fill the corridors of power and are talking about leaving the U.K.
Nicola Sturgeon comments in it that many Scots voted no to Independence because they saw it as a threat to their membership in the EU. A substantial number voted against Brexit for the same reason.
The two films end with the question "Will Brexit trigger a second Indyref?" Now we know the answer.
As a 'Murrican who owns a kilt (California State Tartan), I found this a really useful bit of co text and history.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:23 AM on October 14, 2016 [3 favorites]
FWIW, the party's name is 'Labour', not 'Labor'.
It's not worth a lot, as they've been absolutely demolished in Scotland.
posted by Happy Dave at 8:25 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
It's not worth a lot, as they've been absolutely demolished in Scotland.
posted by Happy Dave at 8:25 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
A UK court just decreed that Brexit isn't happening without Parliament voting to trigger article 50. Yet more interesting times ahead for ol' Blighty.
posted by Slap*Happy at 8:46 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by Slap*Happy at 8:46 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
The collapse of Scottish Labour has left a real existential gap for many late middle-age stalwarts. To have its comforting existence and rightness of purpose yanked away has left many of them feeling angry, betrayed and alone. One dear, erudite formerly solid-left friend has become utterly insufferable with his "Founders of SNP were racist bigots 70+ years ago so SNP irreparably racist" and "Corbyn Labour antisemitic!!" rants, and thus has become an effective champion of May-style awfulness because his base has evaporated and been replaced by something he can no longer understand.
posted by scruss at 9:24 AM on October 14, 2016
posted by scruss at 9:24 AM on October 14, 2016
*grips handrail on white knuckle ride ever tighter*
A couple of threads on, I have to thank cstross for his thoughtful comment to me earlier.
I have decided to try and go for British citizenship. Trainwreck though Britain may be at the moment, I'll never be a citizen of the EU if I'm not a citizen of the UK. And I'm pretty sure that at this point nothing scares Theresa May more than a foreigner with a vote.
Citizenship is going to be expensive and difficult; so would uprooting from London and moving to Scotland be. At the moment, though, it looks like it will probably be necessary-- assuming the courts and Parliament can't manage to play Gandalf to the Brexit Balrog.
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:27 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
A couple of threads on, I have to thank cstross for his thoughtful comment to me earlier.
I have decided to try and go for British citizenship. Trainwreck though Britain may be at the moment, I'll never be a citizen of the EU if I'm not a citizen of the UK. And I'm pretty sure that at this point nothing scares Theresa May more than a foreigner with a vote.
Citizenship is going to be expensive and difficult; so would uprooting from London and moving to Scotland be. At the moment, though, it looks like it will probably be necessary-- assuming the courts and Parliament can't manage to play Gandalf to the Brexit Balrog.
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:27 AM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
→ A UK court just decreed that Brexit isn't happening without Parliament voting to trigger article 50
I thought that Santos & Miller was still before the court?
posted by scruss at 9:34 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
I thought that Santos & Miller was still before the court?
posted by scruss at 9:34 AM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
You're right - I mistook the opposition argument for a ruling.
posted by Slap*Happy at 10:13 AM on October 14, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Slap*Happy at 10:13 AM on October 14, 2016 [1 favorite]
okay, so this is just oddball theorycrafting, but:
apologies if I'm misusing terminology / accidentally using place names in a way that indicates a political slant; the very fact that I'm asking about such a silly thing indicates that I'm an ignorant Californian who probably shouldn't be theorycrafting about serious political issues on the other side of the world from me.
No apologies for saying that England has shat the bed, because good lord has England shat the bed.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:33 PM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
- All parties involved in Northern Ireland carefully put together a very smart agreement that allows for everyone involved to go about their day-to-day business without anyone having to ask questions that don't really need to be answered, questions that when asked inspire people to start shooting at each other.
- The people of England and Wales, in their infinite wisdom, have blown up the foundation of that agreement in order to express a vague dissatisfaction with the existence of people who aren't British.
- Scotland, in response to England's shitting of the UK bed, are likely to leave the UK.
- Northern Ireland attempting to go its own way, or attempting to join up with the Republic, would likely spark off the sorts of questions that end in people answering with bombs and bullets.
- As such, would it be possible for the people of Northern Ireland to re-establish a foundation for an agreement that allows everyone to go about their day-to-day business without shootings and bombings by leaving the UK and then entering into a union with Scotland?
apologies if I'm misusing terminology / accidentally using place names in a way that indicates a political slant; the very fact that I'm asking about such a silly thing indicates that I'm an ignorant Californian who probably shouldn't be theorycrafting about serious political issues on the other side of the world from me.
No apologies for saying that England has shat the bed, because good lord has England shat the bed.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:33 PM on October 14, 2016 [2 favorites]
would it be possible for the people of Northern Ireland to re-establish a foundation for an agreement that allows everyone to go about their day-to-day business without shootings and bombings by leaving the UK and then entering into a union with Scotland
No. It's the "leaving the UK" part of the equation that is the entire foundation of all the years of unrest. In the words of the late Unionist leader Rev Ian Paisley, as in Union of NI with Great Britain: never, never, never. (Unionists are not so much with the ambivalence)
posted by billiebee at 5:12 PM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
No. It's the "leaving the UK" part of the equation that is the entire foundation of all the years of unrest. In the words of the late Unionist leader Rev Ian Paisley, as in Union of NI with Great Britain: never, never, never. (Unionists are not so much with the ambivalence)
posted by billiebee at 5:12 PM on October 14, 2016 [4 favorites]
so I suppose tricksy arguments about still being part of part of the UK are a non-starter. oh well.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:17 PM on October 14, 2016
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:17 PM on October 14, 2016
"I know what will solve the dispute in Northern Ireland! Tricksy arguments!"
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:18 PM on October 14, 2016
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 5:18 PM on October 14, 2016
I dunno, I could see it working although I'm not sure how you could sell it politically. The NI folks who don't consider themselves Irish are basically ethnic Scots (to the extent of fabricating an entire language to make a point about this).
If you could include Greater Edinburgh as well (the bit within the M25), frankly I'd be all for it.
posted by doop at 12:45 AM on October 15, 2016
If you could include Greater Edinburgh as well (the bit within the M25), frankly I'd be all for it.
posted by doop at 12:45 AM on October 15, 2016
Caledonwi'ya
posted by aihal at 4:25 AM on October 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by aihal at 4:25 AM on October 15, 2016 [1 favorite]
I am outraged that urbanwhaleshark got more favourites for explaining Jon Mitchell's joke than Jon got for making it.
posted by biffa at 8:46 AM on October 15, 2016
posted by biffa at 8:46 AM on October 15, 2016
Not all, no. These constitutional tensions are very welcome because they'll eventually lead to the end of the UK. And if the UK ends a whole chunk of history, cultural and social outlook, ends with it.
It's worth bearing in mind, once again, that Leavers in England tended to be English-identified and Remainers British-identified. One of these groups will deal very easily, mentally-speaking, with Scottish independence. Their country isn't going to disappear but reappear.
All the Methuselahs who remember their country before the union with N.I. or Scotland or Wales will feel right at home.
posted by ersatz at 10:14 AM on October 15, 2016
It's worth bearing in mind, once again, that Leavers in England tended to be English-identified and Remainers British-identified. One of these groups will deal very easily, mentally-speaking, with Scottish independence. Their country isn't going to disappear but reappear.
All the Methuselahs who remember their country before the union with N.I. or Scotland or Wales will feel right at home.
posted by ersatz at 10:14 AM on October 15, 2016
From Sturgeon's conference-ending speech today:
posted by vasi at 10:50 AM on October 15, 2016 [5 favorites]
If you remember just one word from my speech today, I want it to be this one. It begins with an 'I'.
No, not that one! Not yet.
The word I want you to remember is this - inclusion. Inclusion is the guiding principle for everything we do. It encapsulates what we stand for as a party and it describes the kind of country we want Scotland to be.
An inclusive country.
A country where everyone has the opportunity to contribute to a better future and to share in the benefits of that better future. A country which works for those who value the security they currently have and for those who yearn for change. A country where we value people for the contribution they make. Not one where we will ever judge them on their country of birth or the colour of their passport.
That is the inclusive Scotland we are working to build.
You Can't Tip a Buick: "If nothing else, it would solve the problem of having an EU country having a border with a non-EU country that's complex and with many crossings"I simply don't see that the NI-ROI border should be a problem after the UK leaving the EU. The two countries are free to keep the Common Travel Area alive. As long as Ireland doesn't join Schengen - and there's really no reason for it to do so at this point - you can have exactly the status quo. It is not without precedent that EU countries have some degree of open borders and free movement with a non-EU country; see for instance the Nordic Passport Union.
posted by brokkr at 11:07 AM on October 15, 2016
I simply don't see that the NI-ROI border should be a problem after the UK leaving the EU.
Well some people in the North of Ireland - myself included - would feel extremely unhappy about having to pass through a policed border control to cross into the South of Ireland. It was a source of huge contention before and it would be again.
posted by billiebee at 11:52 AM on October 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
Well some people in the North of Ireland - myself included - would feel extremely unhappy about having to pass through a policed border control to cross into the South of Ireland. It was a source of huge contention before and it would be again.
posted by billiebee at 11:52 AM on October 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
That Sturgeon speech is why I have moved to Scotland. Well, there are lots of reasons, all interlinked, but I want to live in a society led by people who aren't scared to promote the very core of what I want society to be - inclusive, embracing, unafraid, humane. Mostly - humane.
(I'd also like to keep my EU citizenship...)
Meanwhile, I've dipped my toe in the process of Mefi meet-ups. I'm not sure if this is forbidden under the self-link rules, but I don't know how else to promote it so for those of you within slouching distance of Auld Reekie, here it is.
posted by Devonian at 11:56 AM on October 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
(I'd also like to keep my EU citizenship...)
Meanwhile, I've dipped my toe in the process of Mefi meet-ups. I'm not sure if this is forbidden under the self-link rules, but I don't know how else to promote it so for those of you within slouching distance of Auld Reekie, here it is.
posted by Devonian at 11:56 AM on October 15, 2016 [3 favorites]
billiebee: "Well some people in the North of Ireland - myself included - would feel extremely unhappy about having to pass through a policed border control to cross into the South of Ireland. It was a source of huge contention before and it would be again."Right. And I'm arguing that I don't see any reason you couldn't keep the CTA and an open border even after UK leaves the EU.
posted by brokkr at 2:59 PM on October 15, 2016
Right. And I'm arguing that I don't see any reason you couldn't keep the CTA and an open border even after UK leaves the EU.
I'm not sure that I have this right, but my impression is that, RoI being in the EU, it will continue to be part of the free travel area within the EU. If you keep the CTA, economic migrants can just cross from the RoI to the UK without a border check. Since limiting the flow of migrants is what people wanted out of Brexit, there has to be a border control point somewhere, and forcing Irish and/or British people to pass through one to get to the other country will be problematic no matter where you put it, I think....the only alternative to putting on on the land border between RoI and N.I. would be to put one at all ports on the isle of Great Britain, e.g., you'd have to show a passport going from Belfast to London or Cardiff, but not Dublin to Belfast. I'd think that would cause an uproar as well...
posted by Diablevert at 3:56 PM on October 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
I'm not sure that I have this right, but my impression is that, RoI being in the EU, it will continue to be part of the free travel area within the EU. If you keep the CTA, economic migrants can just cross from the RoI to the UK without a border check. Since limiting the flow of migrants is what people wanted out of Brexit, there has to be a border control point somewhere, and forcing Irish and/or British people to pass through one to get to the other country will be problematic no matter where you put it, I think....the only alternative to putting on on the land border between RoI and N.I. would be to put one at all ports on the isle of Great Britain, e.g., you'd have to show a passport going from Belfast to London or Cardiff, but not Dublin to Belfast. I'd think that would cause an uproar as well...
posted by Diablevert at 3:56 PM on October 15, 2016 [2 favorites]
And the same would apply to a post-Brexit EU Scotland. which has no history of a physical border in modern times.
This is what ultimately gets my goat. Free movement of people is NOT a problem if you do not consider it one. It's a huge benefit to cultures and economies. The whole Brexit farrago is an object lesson in grand political failure, one punishing hundreds of millions of people for the sake of a few million bigots who won't get what they want anyway.
posted by Devonian at 9:21 AM on October 16, 2016 [5 favorites]
This is what ultimately gets my goat. Free movement of people is NOT a problem if you do not consider it one. It's a huge benefit to cultures and economies. The whole Brexit farrago is an object lesson in grand political failure, one punishing hundreds of millions of people for the sake of a few million bigots who won't get what they want anyway.
posted by Devonian at 9:21 AM on October 16, 2016 [5 favorites]
Diablevert: "I'm not sure that I have this right, but my impression is that, RoI being in the EU, it will continue to be part of the free travel area within the EU."RoI is not part of the "free travel area within the EU", i.e. Schengen. There are border controls when travelling from e.g. Germany to Ireland, whereas I have often taken the plane from Germany to Denmark without showing any form of ID at any point during the journey.
RoI will continue to participate in the free movement of labour under article 45 of the EU treaties. This is not the same as allowing everybody to enter RoI as long as they're coming from another EU country. And the CTA is the mechanism by which the UK and RoI agree who they'll let in and travel freely between the two countries. An independent Scotland would likely want to join the CTA.
Diablevert: "Since limiting the flow of migrants is what people wanted out of Brexit, there has to be a border control point somewhere"Yes. Put them in the international airports and ports with regular ferry connections - i.e. where they are now. Problem solved. You don't need to check people sailing between Irish and UK ports as they will have been checked entering either country.
posted by brokkr at 11:15 AM on October 16, 2016 [2 favorites]
Angus Robertson: "If the United Kingdom delivers on the priorities that the Scottish Government is going to be setting out in the next week, that is going to be the focus of our continuing and renewed relationship in a European context, and if the Scottish Government is satisfied then I don’t see how the Scottish Government would pursue a further independence referendum."
Couple of fairly hefty 'if's there, of course.
If the UK government goes for a soft Brexit and a parliamentary vote on A50, and presents that as something they were arm-twisted into by Scotland, are the tabloid press going to send actual armies up here? I grow slightly concerned.
posted by Catseye at 3:58 AM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
Couple of fairly hefty 'if's there, of course.
If the UK government goes for a soft Brexit and a parliamentary vote on A50, and presents that as something they were arm-twisted into by Scotland, are the tabloid press going to send actual armies up here? I grow slightly concerned.
posted by Catseye at 3:58 AM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
Guardian on how other EU borders are managed
posted by Diablevert at 6:24 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Diablevert at 6:24 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
Frankly, if the Tories abandon hard Brexit and blame the Scots, then blame away. There;s enough anti-Scots prejudice in the Westminster establishment that more makes little difference, and derailing the Brexit madness is worth the price of a bit more Anglo-Saxon apoplexy.
The latest kite being flown over the Brexit battlements is paying the EU lots of money to give Nissan and the City of London some sort of quasi-EU ghetto status. I can't help but see this as a not-so-implicit admission that leaving the EU in general is a very bad and very expensive mistake, and if you try and apply logic to the idea you quickly arrive at the 'well, don't bloody well leave in the first place'.
posted by Devonian at 6:32 AM on October 17, 2016 [4 favorites]
The latest kite being flown over the Brexit battlements is paying the EU lots of money to give Nissan and the City of London some sort of quasi-EU ghetto status. I can't help but see this as a not-so-implicit admission that leaving the EU in general is a very bad and very expensive mistake, and if you try and apply logic to the idea you quickly arrive at the 'well, don't bloody well leave in the first place'.
posted by Devonian at 6:32 AM on October 17, 2016 [4 favorites]
Catseye, so many people down here (I'm scottish but live in London) would be so grateful for this kind of face-saving intervention there would surely be a counteracting 'people's army' put together in swift order.
posted by stevedawg at 12:26 PM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by stevedawg at 12:26 PM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
Worked out great for Wat Tyler.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:38 PM on October 17, 2016
posted by Chrysostom at 7:38 PM on October 17, 2016
Emma May Smith - It's worth bearing in mind, once again, that Leavers in England tended to be English-identified and Remainers British-identified. One of these groups will deal very easily, mentally-speaking, with Scottish independence. Their country isn't going to disappear but reappear.
Such people probably haven't given much thought to what that means in any practical sense, principally because it's a fantasy with no grounding in reality. 'Their country' is a myth that they individually construct. I suggest there is as much common ground between them as a group as there is between remainers and leavers.
posted by asok at 2:53 AM on October 18, 2016
Such people probably haven't given much thought to what that means in any practical sense, principally because it's a fantasy with no grounding in reality. 'Their country' is a myth that they individually construct. I suggest there is as much common ground between them as a group as there is between remainers and leavers.
posted by asok at 2:53 AM on October 18, 2016
For example, I would like the country to be reforested as much as possible and people to get back into contact with the health giving properties of the environment, a link that is being regrown through the recent popularity of foraging. Perhaps that was mostly lost with the witch persecutions, or maybe industrialisation.
I wouldn't expect that to be a wildly popular view amongst the hateful Leavers.
posted by asok at 1:42 AM on October 19, 2016
I wouldn't expect that to be a wildly popular view amongst the hateful Leavers.
posted by asok at 1:42 AM on October 19, 2016
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posted by Talez at 11:07 AM on October 13, 2016 [5 favorites]