♪♫ Ev'ry day you fight, like you’re running out of time
November 2, 2016 2:59 PM   Subscribe

Just six days left before the election. Rebounding from FBI Director Comey's resumption of the email investigation (previously), Hillary has been galvanizing her base, while Trump has adopted an unusual strategy of encouraging people to change their vote.

Trump currently has a narrow but workable path to victory if the polls continue to tighten. That may change after "Jane Doe," the woman accusing him of raping her as a 13 year-old, speaks out this evening.

It's not just about Trump and Hillary. The downballot is also important. MeFites are voting and volunteering. There's even a MeFites United calling team (details from kristi.)

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posted by ChurchHatesTucker (3373 comments total) 105 users marked this as a favorite
 
Wow the air is clear up here..

Six more days. Not sure if I'm hopeful or terrified.
posted by Alterscape at 3:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


I wanted to get this up for reactions to the Jane Doe press conference. I also stripped it way down because talking about Comey seemed odd after mentioning that.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


This time I get to be the one to say, "Finally an election thread I've gotten to the end of!"
posted by explosion at 3:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


Where are all the comments?
This thread is rigged!
posted by chavenet at 3:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]


We're submitting them and then editing them, just like Trump intended.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 3:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]




I don't think the Jane Doe press conference is happening.

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/793936316262219776
Lisa Bloom just said her client was "living in fear" and did not want to show her face and ended the press conference.
posted by Mothlight at 3:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh my fucking god.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


We now resume our regularly scheduled freakout about emails.
posted by zachlipton at 3:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


Bloom did say that it would be rescheduled, presumably after they beef up security.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:07 PM on November 2, 2016




The press conference with Jane Doe was just called off due to death threats.

Can I submit my FPP again?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


Obama at a UNC Chapel Hill rally earlier today: "All the progress we hope to make over the next eight years, all of that goes out of the window if we don't win this election. And we don't win this election, potentially, if we don't win North Carolina. So I hate to put a little pressure on you, but the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders. The fate of the world is teetering and you, North Carolina, are going to have to make sure that we push it in the right direction."

Only a little pressure...
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [47 favorites]


I think the best odds for getting back the non-deplorable part of the working class would be to put up a candidate more like Sanders. Obviously not an option this election, but there is always in 8 years, or 4 if they go particularly badly or Clinton doesn't want re-election for whatever reason.
posted by Mitrovarr at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


Is #westandwithjanedoe a thing yet?

Threats. And people wonder why women don't come forward. Jesus Christ.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [60 favorites]


Today's entry over at Indexed:
Stress-eating Halloween candy & refreshing all the tabs.
posted by mon-ma-tron at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


I know the next 6 days are going to be objectively just as long as any other 6 days. They're not going to feel like that, though.

I hope it's just 6 days, and the process doesn't get dragged out. I'm going to need some serious drugs if it does. Candy isn't going to do it.
posted by still_wears_a_hat at 3:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


reminder for kitty and pupper owners: pet costumes are always on markdown the week after halloween so if you think it will help your sanity pls dress up your puppers as fat lil pumpkins

also post pictures
posted by poffin boffin at 3:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [178 favorites]


Wow, I'd never caught an election thread that was under like 700 comments.

Just wanted to say I'm Mexican and looking at this from an outsider perspective but I'll be sending USA good vibes all week and up to tuesday night.

Pleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresident
posted by CrazyLemonade at 3:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [91 favorites]


i promise i am not a paid shill for Big Pet Costume
posted by poffin boffin at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [75 favorites]


So the press conference didn't happen?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016


I come from white Southern working class people and our problems are not that interesting and mostly boil down to ignorance + racism encouraged by the richer people who want to manipulate us, can we stop wringing our hands over white people feelings.
posted by emjaybee at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [77 favorites]


Let's ask Conway about Trump singling out Katy Tur at his rally. She says Hillary is "in the gutter" but they are much more "joyful and positive and uplifting" in their campaign.
posted by zachlipton at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


The press conference with Jane Doe was just called off due to death threats.
The Gamergators taught them well.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


reminder for kitty and pupper owners: pet costumes are always on markdown the week after halloween so if you think it will help your sanity pls dress up your puppers as fat lil pumpkins

Well there's my coping strategy for the week.
posted by corb at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]


I also stripped it way down because talking about Comey seemed odd after mentioning that.

Today on Twitter I saw a statement from "Tiffany", a former Epstein employee, about witnessing Donald Trump raping teenagers and girls even younger. I also saw a statement from the teenager involved in the Anthony Weiner case directed at Comey about how his timing thrust her into the spotlight and how unprofessionally and hurtfully it was handled. Comey, like a horrifying number of older men in this country who have some influence on the election, doesn't seem to consider young women worth protecting. That's a HUGE part of this election and it's a depressing thread that feels like it runs through everything and just grinds me down.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [175 favorites]


I think the best odds for getting back the non-deplorable part of the working class would be to put up a candidate more like Sanders.
Deduct ten points for saying "the working class" when you mean "the white working class."
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [126 favorites]


The Clinton camp going back up on the air in CO concerns me. I know we all think it's in the bag there but those polls showing a Clinton +9 lead or whatever are old at this point, and the only recent polls we have are C+3, C+1, C+3, C+2. And the fact that they're putting money back into Colorado means their internal polling backs up the public polling. Not necessarily exactly but in terms of there being some tightening.

I'm not super comfortable with the fate of the nation resting on C+3, C+1, C+3, C+2 and if anybody else is they have nerves of frikkin' steel.
posted by Justinian at 3:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


For me, Friday morning to Monday evening will be occupied with a road trip to NC for the funeral and memorial of a very beloved grandmother.

In theory, this means the weekend will be dedicated to memories and bonding and familial love. But then again, I know who some of them are voting for already. So I may be trapped on the top of a mountain for two days with some pretty abhorrent views. Wish me luck.
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]


for other more unconventional pets you could prolly make a cute dress for a snake with an old tube sock and those puffy paint pens
posted by poffin boffin at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [47 favorites]


I don't know, there's a weird smell over these allegations. It's entirely possible that this woman has just picked her friends poorly, but it's also possible that, per Jezebel's reporting, she's part of a freelance ratfucking and wants out. To be clear, I completely believe that Trump is the kind of man who would do what she alleges. I just ... In any case, I have no doubt she is facing death threats.
posted by Countess Elena at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


This is the point in the election cycle when I want to tell myself to keep calm and trust in Nate Silver but his most recent charts are not providing the warm comforts that I am accustomed to (I should have know that those heady 85+% days were fleeting).
posted by sparklemotion at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Here's hoping Jane Doe has an opportunity to come back out in a couple of days, with a bulletproof vest or a tank or at the very least an army of decent people volunteering to bodyguard her. The idea that the deplorables could silence someone like her is just devastating.

What a horrible election.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


If anything good has come out of this election cycle, it's been the apparent failure (finally!) of the Parties to keep shoveling their warmed-over doublespeak without consequence. The D party very nearly had a legitimate candidate with legitimately progressive policies, and the R party was taken over by a total crank. Wow!
posted by anarch at 3:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


I know it's wrong to want very bad things to happen to whoever threatened that young woman, but I do. Polls reportedly slipping, the fucking FBI coming down on the GOP side during an election - this I could handle, but I got nothing but hate in my heart for whoever did that shit.

Done now. Time to find a bottle of Malbec to empty.
posted by Mooski at 3:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


I know the next 6 days are going to be objectively just as long as any other 6 days. They're not going to feel like that, though.

I hope it's just 6 days, and the process doesn't get dragged out. I'm going to need some serious drugs if it does. Candy isn't going to do it.


If you're in most of the US this isn't true because of Daylight Savings Time.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 3:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]


Wish me luck.
Good luck, and I'm sorry for your loss. When I went to the ancestral homestead for my grandmother's funeral in May, I was actually pleasantly surprised at how many people weren't on Team Trump.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


I got an 8 month old puppy a month ago (I guess that means she's 9 months). She and my cat (3 yrs old) get along really well considering. I mean they are not playing together or anything, but no one has gotten hurt. What I am trying to say here is, we will all be ok. Cats and dogs are coexisting on my couch right now, dammit and I am taking that as a sign.

Also this is the first election post that I have gotten to post in. Usually there are about a thousand posts and I get exhausted and don't finish.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 3:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


I don't know, there's a weird smell over these allegations.

This is one big reason there hasn't been a lot of coverage. If you want your allegations to be taken seriously it's usually best not to be surrounded by political operatives and known ratfuckers. I don't know what happened and Trump is pure scum but the people around the accuser inspire 0 confidence.
posted by Justinian at 3:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


Justinian, re CO polls, we have a brand new one at HRC +10.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [83 favorites]


OH MY GOD I LOVE YOU.
posted by Justinian at 3:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [110 favorites]


Deduct ten points for saying "the working class" when you mean "the white working class."

I meant all of it. I think the non-white parts of it are on our side this election because they're against Trump, but we need to offer them real improvements to get their loyalty long term. I don't think Clinton will do much for them except not actively make their situation worse.
posted by Mitrovarr at 3:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]


Ahem. I mean... thank you, that is important information.
posted by Justinian at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [41 favorites]


I'd like to thank wikileaks for exposing Clintons' bullshit with PAST DNC Brazilles leaking info concerning the debate in Flint. what assholes.
posted by clavdivs at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


> "Justinian, re CO polls, we have a brand new one at HRC +10."

And the recent Times-Picayune/Lucid CO poll was at Clinton +7.
posted by kyrademon at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think Trump voters are pretty good at not believing accusations from women and that his floor is pretty well baked in at this point and that this press conference wouldn't have moved any numbers very much, so I can't say as I'm disappointed that we didn't get the press conference and the ensuing freakouts over the fact that the press conference didn't result in better polls
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


BREAKING
WikiLeaks email dump shows that Clinton was given locations of debates in advance
posted by Senor Cardgage at 3:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [98 favorites]


RIGGED
posted by entropicamericana at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


Damn, that Colorado poll was taken more than a week ago, was online, and was not a random sample. From the poll: The online panel design is
not a random sample of the Colorado general public, and accordingly, we make no claims of scientific certainty with respect to its generalizability to the state.


Sadly, I must lump it in with the bullshit polls I was railing against instead of sleeping last night. Just because I want it to be true doesn't mean it is.

JCPL rising again.
posted by Justinian at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


Six more days. Not sure if I'm hopeful or terrified.

You can be both.
posted by octothorpe at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Hey everyone! An update on my previous "Oh my God my house was lived in by child-Roger-Ailes" news. The documentary filmmaker is coming on Election Day/evening to film the house and interview us, as well as film us watching election returns (the documentary is actually on Roger Ailes and his impact on media coverage).

I am excited about this, but I remarked to my husband, "I guess this means we have to wear pants and not provide commentary in the voices of the cats while we watch the returns, huh."
posted by chainsofreedom at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [115 favorites]


I think the Brazille thing is another nothing burger. HRC is nothing if not completely prepared. The general theme of the debate was set, she really would not have needed any help.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


one can only imagine how lost, befuddled, and flat-footed Clinton would have looked, stammering for an answer about lead poisoning in Flint, had Brazile not given her that nefarious lifeline!
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]


My awesome iPhone 6s -- which not only looks cool and works really well but speaks to my worth as a human being -- loaded this thread in like milliseconds.
posted by orange ball at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


I gave up on the election threads, but for the home stretch will try to keep up. It's terrifying at this point. Dear fellow USians, just fucking vote, mkay?
posted by theora55 at 3:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


JCPL rising again.

no offense but the JCPL concept is going in the Wicker Trump along with the word "optics" on Nov 9
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [70 favorites]


Everytime there is an article about the poor, poor unemployed white people, it's important to remember that unemployment for black Americans is twice that of whites. It certainly varies by location and educational level (educated people in cities have an advantage) but the people who are really suffering are not the ones that get the sympathy profiles in major media.

I really want to see a universal basic income for all. I would also like to see an "American Dream" for us all, no matter the race, gender, sexuality, etc. The for-whites-only American Dream in the 1950's was supported by the government, financing it through high taxes on the wealthy. If it could happen again, this time for all Americans, it would be wonderful. I don't think anyone should be poor. The trouble is there may not be enough actual jobs for everyone, but a universal basic income...one can dream, I guess.

Even without a UBI, a Clinton administration will be better for the poor, for women, POC, indeed anyone who is not a white male. And, if someone is seriously thinking of voting for a candidate who was endorsed by the KKK - the KKK! - I don't want to know them. I could forgive people for voting for Bush, or McCain, or Romney, as basically decent people who thought differently than I did - but voting for Trump puts you beyond the pale (har har).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [174 favorites]


I know, right? If not for Wikileaks, we would never have been able to point at Donna Brazile and proclaim her Captain Obvious.
posted by xyzzy at 3:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Great comment Rosie
posted by Potomac Avenue at 3:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


> "Damn, that Colorado poll was taken more than a week ago, was online, and was not a random sample."

Well ... if you restrict it to nonpartisan live phone polls, I don't think there's even BEEN one in Colorado since the Quinnipiac poll on October 16.
posted by kyrademon at 3:33 PM on November 2, 2016


Thus the concern, yes. It is hard to feel confident when polling this year has been so spotty and low quality compared to 2012.
posted by Justinian at 3:34 PM on November 2, 2016


I know, right? If not for Wikileaks, we would never have been able to point at Donna Brazile and proclaim her Captain Obvious.

Would that make her Captain Brazile?
posted by miguelcervantes at 3:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


As I mentioned in the last thread, I do think the Brazile thing generally stinks, and as the NYT commented yesterday, CNN, in particular, needs to act like a news organization and start talking about what happened here rather than running and hide.

But, I maintain that there were only two candidates this cycle who were so out of it that they needed a secret tip that someone might ask about the Flint water crisis at a debate HELD IN FLINT, and neither Donald Trump nor Ben Carson were participating in the Democratic debate. I am supremely confident that Hillary Clinton had a Flint water answer fully prepped and ready to go well before the evening before the debate, and I'm sure Sanders had one too.

I think the issue, and a number of other things that have happened this season (hi Corey!) raise some pretty important questions about surrogates and analysts, and CNN, as the folks most responsible for making the mess, ought to play a role in cleaning it up. But I think it's immaterial as far as the primary is concerned.
posted by zachlipton at 3:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


I've only half followed (well quarter (Maybe 1/8?)) followed the election threads. Before this gets too long, what is JCPL?
posted by [insert clever name here] at 3:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


I've only half followed (well quarter (Maybe 1/8?)) followed the election threads. Before this gets too long, what is JCPL?

Welcome! We've got a wiki to help you catch up on all the nonsense we've invented in these threads as (attempted) coping mechanisms while neglecting our personal and professional responsibilities.
posted by zachlipton at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]


Follow the election thread reference at the top of the page.
posted by LionIndex at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Seriously...everytime I see JCPL my brain goes, "Johnson County Public Library" because that's my county library.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]


Been meaning to mention this for a while, but if you have access to BBC iPlayer, they've got up their 2002 documentary "The War Room" - a fly-on-the-wall behind the scenes look at Bill Clinton's 1992 primary and presidential election campaign.

It is well worth a watch, if only for just how different things are and from a position of knowing how things went for all the key players involved.
posted by garius at 3:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


I despair that CNN knows how to act like a news organization. I get that calm news about far flung places like one finds on PBS News Hour might not sell soap, but how would we know? Maybe, like, try it out.
posted by xyzzy at 3:41 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


BTW, I voted earlier in October - California is pretty good about allowing you to vote by mail without jumping through a lot of hoops. Not only was I able to #StandWithHer, I was able to vote yes on legal marijuana, hooray! I live in an indigo-blue part of a blue state so it's not as if my vote made a huge difference, but I felt good to be able to do something. And there are the downticket races.

I have seen the occasional Clinton/Kaine sign (amusingly, one right next to a leftover Halloween "A Witch Lives Here With Her Little Monsters" sign) but no Trump/Pence, thank god. Lots and lots and LOTS of signs for local officials. I try to give some attention to those, as the less sexy, more local races are how senators and presidents get started, and I really want to vote in as many pinko libruls as I possibly can.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]


The big Health Plan speech coverage linked in the previous FPP bothered me because all of the speakers-- the doctors, Ben Carson, Pence Trump-- don't rely on ObamaCare. They are either covered through work and/or wealthy enough to buy the best medical insurance available. When coming up with the new Trump-Pence plan I'm sure they did not confer with anyone who has insurance coverage through ObamaCare. Yes it has its problems but it also has its strengths and just getting rid of it is going to be a disaster for millions of people.

This is one of the many, many ways in which the Trump campaign has been such a shit show-- his policies are not geared to help anyone but himself. Unlike Hillary, he has made no effort to listen or to be open to what Americans need or want. Instead the agenda he is pushing is to please his crowds (build a wall) or cater to Republican politicians (defund Planned Parenthood) or benefit the Trump family (get rid of the Estate Tax.) Is there anyone on MetaFilter that thinks he has consulted anyone other than his immediate circle of cronies, family, and advisers? Like god forbid he should actually go to a Planned Parenthood office and talk to some of the women there to see how they would be affected if PP is defunded.


And, if someone is seriously thinking of voting for a candidate who was endorsed by the KKK - the KKK! - I don't want to know them.


I've been saying this for months. Look at who is running his campaign. Look at who is showing up at his rallies and the T-shirts they are wearing. Even if you don't understand who the alt-right are, you should be able to understand Trump that Bitch and Lock her up.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]


my god, the election threads wiki produces so much nostalgia feels. remember when we used to call Martin O'Malley Littlefinger? We used to talk about Martin O'Malley! Good lord, it seems so long ago.


I wonder what little Linc Chaffee is up to. I hope he's moved out west and returned to being a farrier.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]


please someone stop me before I write election fanfic about Lincoln Chaffee trying to convince all the other farriers to switch to metric horseshoes...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [39 favorites]


posted by chainsofreedom at 17:27
I am excited about this, but I remarked to my husband, "I guess this means we have to wear pants and not provide commentary in the voices of the cats while we watch the returns, huh."

actually I would watch this documentary
posted by strange chain at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [77 favorites]


Only if Miranda July directed it.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Stuck with a conundrum for election night:

Friends are organizing a party. My girlfriend/partner almost certainly can't go, 'cause she'll be deep into project stuff for her current coding classes.

I feel a deep need to see through the salvation or destruction of the republic with friends. Conversely, I feel like I should be home with my girlfriend for a moment like that (also because the success or failure of electing a woman to the presidency means more than a little). She says I should go 'cause she'll be too invested in her work to even look up, but... gah.

I don't know if she's just hiding her election trauma or if I'm projecting mine onto her. :)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think Trump voters are pretty good at not believing accusations from women

Shit, they didn't believe him when he confessed.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [105 favorites]


This may be the first election night that I go to bed early. I'll know who won by the sound or absence of gunfire in the distance.
posted by Splunge at 3:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


I am excited about this, but I remarked to my husband, "I guess this means we have to wear pants and not provide commentary in the voices of the cats while we watch the returns, huh."

I imagine the documentary crew might insist on pants, but you should absolutely not let them talk you out of the kitty-commentary.
posted by jackbishop at 3:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]


I feel like I just want to go into a cave and come out in two years. No matter what happens the next year is going to be really messed up.
posted by lumpenprole at 3:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Can we start calling Trump a gazillionaire? It sounds big and it's completely made-up, like the value of his name.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


Watching the national news is not making me happy. ABC is doing the election map, checking to see how Trump could reach 270 electoral votes. CBS is showing a group of college-age voters bringing up various issues. Don't get me started about local news in Oklahoma.
Have I mentioned how much I appreciate the points of view on MetaFilter? Opinions are respectfully exchanged and solid evidence is cited.
Anti-Hillary ads are showing on the stations. Notice how they never say what Trump's policies are?
On with the election....
posted by TrishaU at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


For even more nostalgia feels, pop back to the first election 2016 megathread (a mere 754 comments) Hillary declares for 2016, back when 575 days before the election felt as endless as the next six days do now. Skimming the first bunch of comments, essentially nothing has changed in the last 569 days. Or the CNN Too Many Cooks video thread (tw: Too Many Cooks) for a simpler time when this election was just about mild dislike over a media company's viral video efforts.
posted by zachlipton at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Seriously...everytime I see JCPL my brain goes, "Johnson County Public Library" because that's my county library.

I didn't know the acronym either so I googled it and got ... the Johnson County Public Library.
posted by chavenet at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


Usually I hate teaching Writing About Literature, because I'm really not that great at it. I'm trying, but I get this weird tension because, say, I tear up watching David Tennant do a soliloquy from Hamlet and my students are often just *yawn* and it makes me sad and sort of grim and I just don't know how to connect. This isn't an ask for teaching advice; I'm working on it.

What I mean to say is that this semester I am really welcoming it. When I read the WWI poems, Langston Hughes, even the over-the-topness of Sylvia Plath, when I look at all the different layers in "Young Goodman Brown" and Invisible Man, when I realize that I've got some beautiful lines from Cynthia Ozick and Flannery O'Connor engraved in my head, when I anticipate watching Hamlet next week and man I'm already like that is so fucking beautiful--

And I feel okay. I mean now, at this moment. Humanity has been capable of great things, in literature and beyond. And my students may yawn (maybe 'cause I'm crappy), and people may somehow! bizarrely! most incredibly! believe that Trump is more honest than Clinton. And it's like, humanity has always been thus. Great and terrible. That's how it fucking is.

Also, I'm really stoned right now. That helps.
posted by angrycat at 3:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [83 favorites]


I am supremely confident that Hillary Clinton had a Flint water answer fully prepped and ready to go well before the evening before the debate, and I'm sure Sanders had one too.

But this doesn't resolve the problem. The entire affair is disappointing to me (speaking as someone who early voted for Hilary), because when something like that happens and someone gives you an unfair advantage it is up to your ethics and moral compass for you (or your staff) to stand up and say no, this isn't fair, we don't need to play dirty in this way because we have faith in our candidate.

The fact that they both anticipated a question that was leaked to one of the candidates doesn't solve the squishy moral compass here. Whether she directly worked with the DNC at that point and anticipated receiving the tip aside or wants to write it off as an unsolicited tip, even in that circumstance the only acceptable solution at the point was to 1) Notify the debate organizers that you received this tip and they should consider reevaluate their questions, and 2) Notify your competitors that you received this tip.

Again, I voted for Hilary and still would even in this circumstance because the alternative is far worse, but this does not in anyway help her image among Sanders-supporters who we need to get her to the finish line.
posted by Karaage at 3:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


also post pictures

It's no chubby pumpkin but I snapped a couple photos of my dog in a hoodie for you all.

He was being tempted with a new treat--a yak cheese crunchy puff--during the shoot, in case you're wondering what he's looking at. If you'd like an update on his current status, he is naked and begging for a second yak cheese crunchy puff while holding the first yak cheese crunchy puff in his mouth.
posted by phunniemee at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]




Great post ChurchHatesTucker; the 156th on the blue tagged with Election2016. Heck.

Over here in Albion I'm working on the election day post (#dibs) which will be up when the mods deign it so.
posted by Wordshore at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


I live in a tiny town where we all know each other. There is one very vocal Trump supporter in town, white guy in his mid 20s, who I have been having a harder and harder time being civil to. I have started to avoid him because being openly against him or anyone is kind of verboten in our town culture, even though he spent the summer driving around with two giant US flags and MAGA written.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 4:01 PM on November 2, 2016


I early voted today. It was nice and easy and it feels good to have my part in this dumpster fire done and over with. Nice to fingers crossed help get medical marijuana in FL along with the main event of trying to ward off fascism.

Is anyone aware of ways I can expatriate myself for a while if Trump does get elected? I will have an English Literature degree in the spring for what that is worth and I am willing to do basically anything short of like joining the French Foreign Legion. I will of course make the requisite profile on Maple Match. I know "I'm moving to Canada if ______ is elected" is a cliché that few follow through on but I am serious.
posted by Gymnopedist at 4:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


I'm so tired.
posted by vrakatar at 4:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]


I'm sure I'm not alone here in checking FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics multiple times a day to see the latest polling averages. This post on Mother Jones, especially the second part about Reversion to the Mean, was very comforting to me today.
posted by ejs at 4:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


In a just world we could early vote, then program our cryosleep tubes to wake us after the election. (Or if Trump wins... in time for the first 2020 election thread.)
posted by invincible summer at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Again, I voted for Hilary and still would even in this circumstance because the alternative is far worse, but this does not in anyway help her image among Sanders-supporters who we need to get her to the finish line.
Be disappointed in John Podesta for not telling on Brazile all you want, but the default assumption that Bernie received no hot tips from media-affiliated Berners is unsupportable. No one hacked his campaign and posted 10 years of email archives, so we have no way of knowing.
posted by xyzzy at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [56 favorites]


no offense but the JCPL concept is going in the Wicker Trump along with the word "optics" on Nov 9

Ooh, ooh! Can I add to the list of concepts to be tossed into the post-election Wicker Trump?

1. Nothingburger
2. All out of evens
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]


For anyone in the mood to watch a train wreck, the Louisiana Senate race debate is on tonight in about an hour (7 PM Central) and it's being broadcast nationally by CSPAN. Featuring everyone's actual KKK member David "is he still around?" Duke.
posted by Bringer Tom at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016


Gymnopedist, whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if ______ is elected," I say "No! We need you here to fight the good fight!"

So, uh, imagine me saying that to you.
posted by ejs at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


So in which states am I able to change this comment?
posted by sammyo at 4:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]




MetaFilter: naked and begging for a second yak
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [21 favorites]


Why isn't MSNBC covering the fact that the press conference was called off due to death threats? WHY?????? That's a breaking fucking news story, too. Fuck. Fuck fuck fuck.
posted by Room 641-A at 4:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


we make no claims of scientific certainty with respect to its generalizability to the state.

What in the seven hells is the value of a poll that isn't representative? I mean... other than being especially representative of the sort of news reporting we've had since the start of this crapfest.

Why bother going through the trouble of making a poll that has absolutely no validity? Are we reporting internet polls, too? Tea leaves? Entrails of pumpkins? "Here's a completely arbitrary sampling of people that has no validity and shouldn't be relied upon by anybody to provide any insight into anything, but we're doing it anyway because we have space to fill and time to kill."

Is it December yet?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


>the default assumption that Bernie received no hot tips from media-affiliated Berners is unsupportable

"Rules are for others" and "everyone is doing it" excuses. This is why people find Clinton distasteful.
posted by anti social order at 4:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


If this was linked upthread forgive me, but polling in Florida of early voters showed that 28 percent of Republicans there voted for Hillary. IF that holds up, she should win the state 48-40, the book on it being Donnie needs 90 percent of registered Republicans generally, state by state, to have a puncher's chance. I'm gonna go mix some other sports metaphors and some Jame-o over ice.
posted by vrakatar at 4:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Touching back on the topic of disability and voting access, here's an article about some of the efforts in Iowa: Election Day equality: Access is crucial for those with disabilities.
posted by Lexica at 4:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]




Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?
posted by The arrows are too fast at 4:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Is it December yet?

I hate to break it to you but I just let some wax drip into a bowl of water and I'm afraid the shapes the wax took are not favorable to Clinton at all. This is not good, people.
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


My dog in her hoodie. Alien or hard boiled egg-- you decide.


BuzzFeed Election Forum At Orthodox Synagogue Exposes Rift Among New York City Jews
More than 100 people came to Talmud Torah of Flatbush for “Election 2016: The Jewish Perspective,” a panel moderated by local radio host Leon Goldenberg. The event included New Jersey Rabbi Menachem Genack, who spoke in defense of Clinton, and Brooklyn assemblyman Dov Hikind, who said he plans to write-in Paul Ryan for president on Nov 8.

But while there were no Trump supporters on stage, the audience had its share, including Heshy Friedman, a member of “Jewish Democrats for Trump,” a group that is running ads in Jewish newspapers in swing states including Florida and Ohio.[...]

Ayton Eller, another Flatbush resident who identified as a Democrat, wore a Trump logo on his skullcap.

“I’m an American Jew first, and I’m voting for Trump because he’s a strong supporter of Israel,” Eller said. “When Clinton was New York’s senator, she pandered to Jews. As soon as she became secretary of state, she flipped her policies and opposed Jewish settlements. She supported the Iran nuclear deal, which is a catastrophe for Israel that legitimizes Iran.”

One “Jewish Democrats for Trump” flier Friedman’s group passed out read “4 Reasons Why Every Jew Must Vote TRUMP” and included a message at the bottom, “What is happening throughout Europe must NOT be allowed to happen to us.” Another made reference to the Holocaust: “Hillary’s facilitation of Iran’s nukes could mean six million in 9 minutes. Never again dare we remain silent.”
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Be disappointed in John Podesta for not telling on Brazile all you want, but the default assumption that Bernie received no hot tips from media-affiliated Berners is unsupportable. No one hacked his campaign and posted 10 years of email archives, so we have no way of knowing.

This is an absurd red herring. Sure, count me equally disappointed in Bernie if he got a hot tip too and he failed to do the same thing, but this doesn't change what occurred in the Clinton campaign.

Unless you're trying to go with the "hey it's just politics and everyone plays dirty, including maybe Bernie" excuse - which is what I'd expect out of Trump.

If we're going to lay it at just Podesta's feet, then I'd also expect Clinton to take him to task for it too, if not demanding a resignation. But that's not going to happen.
posted by Karaage at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


Justinian I say this with all the love in my heart, you need to smoke a big honking bowl of weed and chill the fuck out man
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [66 favorites]


If you want your allegations to be taken seriously it's usually best not to be surrounded by political operatives and known ratfuckers.

A judge examined the evidence and decided there was enough for a hearing. This is not a small-town story; how, as a random person, do you step into a presidential election without being surrounded by political operatives?
posted by Room 641-A at 4:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


>The fact that they both anticipated a question that was leaked to one of the candidates doesn't solve the squishy moral compass here. Whether she directly worked with the DNC at that point and anticipated receiving the tip aside or wants to write it off as an unsolicited tip, even in that circumstance the only acceptable solution at the point was to 1) Notify the debate organizers that you received this tip and they should consider reevaluate their questions, and 2) Notify your competitors that you received this tip.

Successful politicians press every advantage they can get as hard as they can, or they very quickly stop being successful politicians.

Election campaigns aren't about devising fair methods of ascertaining the will of the electorate. instead, they're about demonstrating which of the competitors can construct/control the most effective organization for winning votes.

Elections aren't, like, metafilter threads, where we relatively dispassionately try to use discussion as a means of getting at truth or whatever. Instead, they're war; it's not a mistake that that word "campaign" can be used to refer to both political campaigns and military campaigns.

Instead of being scandalized by the Clinton team using the institutional machinery of the DNC to their benefit, focus on how you can help your candidates build and/or seize control of institutional machinery themselves.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


This is an absurd red herring.
I apologize. I didn't mean to imply that you would celebrate such a thing. I meant that Bernie voters would have no reason to know such a thing if illegal activity hadn't occurred.
posted by xyzzy at 4:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Again, I voted for Hilary and still would even in this circumstance because the alternative is far worse, but this does not in anyway help her image among Sanders-supporters who we need to get her to the finish line.

To quote the guy I voted for in the primaries: I'm tired of hearing about [her] damn emails.

Approximately 100% of the Sanders voters who were actually ever going to vote for Clinton feel the same way and are voting for her. The others, we can argue about what percent fall into which basket, but some of them are misogynists (never voting Clinton because she's a woman), some of them are anti-establishment leftists (never voting Clinton because she's too establishment) and some of them are that weird group of Sanders --> Trump crossover voters, which I'm still not convinced are real people, I suspect the majority of those guys are 4chan trollers.

Anyway, we don't need the tiny numbers of voters in those groups, and we won't get them anyway. Happily, the coalition of left-of center whites, black and brown people and women that Clinton has very skillfully built will carry her to victory.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


Justinian, you picked a such bad week to stop sniffing glue.
posted by bonehead at 4:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]


Yeah I'm entirely indifferent to Clinton getting questions pre-debate or pre-town hall. That's called being effective, having connections, and exploiting your advantages. The Presidential campaign isn't a college midterm.
posted by dis_integration at 4:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]


Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?

There's probably a cultural thread starting with the underground railroad, through the Vietnam war, and the 2000 election that makes it culturally relevant. And in at least two of those cases, it was a super real thing that people did out of fear for their safety.

But at least in my household it's not academic; my Canadian (not-yet-naturalized) wife is understandably on high alert about this election and if Trump won I'm pretty sure the odds we remain in the states in 5 years is sub 30%. And for all the Canadians in the states on TN visas, this is a pretty specific issue too.

That's not to say that this is most people's situations, and certainly both myself and folks on work visas have the privilege to make somewhat unconstrained choices about where we live and work, but it's not entirely blowing smoke either.
posted by heresiarch at 4:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


Metafiler: Also, I'm really stoned right now. That helps.
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]


She may have gotten a question or two but that just means those type questions moved to the top of the practice pile. THEY DO HOMEWORK.
posted by vrakatar at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


HuffPo Donald Trump Will Not Get His Son-In-Law’s Newspaper’s Endorsement
Editor-in-chief Ken Kurson told The Huffington Post Wednesday that the “Observer is not going to make an endorsement in the general.”

The Observer was one of four publications to endorse Trump during the Republican primary, along with the Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post, the Santa Barbara News-Press and The National Enquirer. [...]

In April, New York magazine reported that Kurson ― who worked as a former speechwriter for Rudy Giuliani in addition to journalism roles ― provided input for a speech Trump gave at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference, a role that raised conflict of interest concerns.

Kurson was unapologetic, telling HuffPost that he and Kushner have long discussed politics and he simply looked at a draft in the course of their discussions. A family friend, Kurson landed the Observer’s top job after Kushner cycled through five editors in seven years.

While Kurson didn’t regret his involvement, a former senior politics editor put out a statement shortly afterward that no editorial staffers should assist campaigns. The paper’s national political reporter quit just over a week later in response to the primary endorsement and other Trump coverage concerns.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Elections aren't metafilter threads where we relatively dispassionately try to use discussion as a means of getting at truth or whatever. Instead, they're war; it's not a mistake that that word "campaign" can be used to refer to both political campaigns and military campaigns.

In this war of a campaign, it's a really bad idea to accept (hopefully) unsolicited tips from an insider as to the contents of an upcoming debate question. The potential benefits are minor (and in this case, practically zero), but the costs of this being made public are significant. I am more disappointed in Brazille than Podesta or the HRC campaign. It's not really a big deal, but it's not absolutely nothing. It makes me question how well guarded the questions for the general election debates are, and I'm sure I'm not alone on that, and that kind of doubt is really not good for a candidate.
posted by skewed at 4:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Re the "smell" of the allegations:

If you want your allegations to be taken seriously it's usually best not to be surrounded by political operatives and known ratfuckers.

Works well enough for donald, tho.

In all seriousness one of my very very bright friends (who happens to be female) made a similar argument about the timing of the claims. But it's just so easy to counter - given what the man himself has said about his behavior and inability or unwillingness to control it and the dozen other women suggesting he was telling the truth about himself, how could we not be more than a little interested in the substance of these claims.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 4:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Instead of being scandalized by the Clinton team using the institutional machinery of the DNC to their benefit, focus on how you can help your candidates build and/or seize control of institutional machinery themselves.

Could you clarify what you mean by this? Because I'm reading it as "instead of being disappointed that your preferred candidate did something you find distasteful by using her establishment powers to her benefit and think is negatively affecting her image, just focus on how you can help your preferred candidate.....continue to use those establishment powers to her benefit?"

She's my preferred candidate. That doesn't mean I can't be disappointed in what she's doing, and being told "hey don't worry about that, she'll be better when she's president" isn't at all comforting.
posted by Karaage at 4:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


“4 Reasons Why Every Jew Must Vote TRUMP”

Man, I hope someone asked them how they interpret the "Jew-S-A!" cry that went 'round Trump's rally...
posted by TwoStride at 4:31 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


... and then I caught this on the local news. Good grief.
Oklahoma republican's Facebook post sparks controversy

“Just because I’m in the state legislature doesn’t take away my first amendment rights. I can say however I feel on Facebook, and it wasn’t a threat. It was my thoughts tying her to the treasonous act I think she committed,” said John Bennett, representative for for the 2nd district and running for reelection next Tuesday.
His Wikipedia page gives more information about his past and other conservative views.
Nope, not happy about Oklahoma politicians and news coverage.
posted by TrishaU at 4:32 PM on November 2, 2016


WaPo Gary Johnson still sees 2016 as a game changer. Others call it a missed opportunity for Libertarians
MURRAY, UTAH — Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president, could not believe what was happening. For months, he’d argued that the American public’s disgust with the two major parties would cut his path to the White House. He’d just watched those candidates disqualify themselves from high office. And he was polling worse than ever — especially in Utah, where those candidates were toxic.

“James Comey would not have done what he did unless there was something underlying all of this,” Johnson told a crowd of around 100 people at a college auditorium near Salt Lake City. “And if Trump is elected, he could actually go into inauguration day on trial for rape! Underage rape! He could be on trial for underage rape, taking the oath of office!”

Both claims were full of holes, from Comey’s own letter to Congress on the case of Hillary Clinton’s emails to the flimsiness of the Donald Trump case. At the same time, two time zones away, Johnson’s running mate, Bill Weld, was telling MSNBC that he was “vouching for Mrs. Clinton” and far more worried about Trump winning the election. This was not a bad day in the Libertarian ticket’s final run. It was typical.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Man, I hope someone asked them how they interpret the "Jew-S-A!" cry that went 'round Trump's rally...

Or the cries of lügenpresse at the Trump rally, or his unwillingness to push away the KKK, or.....
posted by lumpenprole at 4:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


I'm signed up to canvass for her on election day, but the disregard for my concerns and excuses I'm hearing here is making me reconsider.

that'll teach Hillary not to use her establishment powers to make people on message boards not give a shit about what Donna Brazile emails to John Podesta!

give me a break
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [49 favorites]


She may have gotten a question or two but that just means those type questions moved to the top of the practice pile. THEY DO HOMEWORK.

Yeah, I have to say that if you're blindsided by ANY question that comes up at a debate and unprepared to answer it, you probably shouldn't be president. I mean, any one of us should be able to guess pretty much all potential questions that could come up.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]


Oklahoma republican's Facebook post sparks controversy

"Sparks controversy?" Way to take a stand, local news. Just to fill in a little more about this guy on today's episode of Better Know a Deplorable:
Bennett, who is seeking re-election, presided over a state House interim study on radical Islam last week where speakers branded both the director of the local Council on American-Islamic Relations chapter and a local imam as terrorists.
posted by zachlipton at 4:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


No way, you want your JCPL to be right around 45%-to-lightly-crunchy this far out from the election. It's a whites-of-the-eyes kind of thing.

Famously, Naploeon's JCPL was close to Burbling throughout most of his career until Waterloo when it faded down to Lolling. And look what happened there.
posted by petebest at 4:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


[breaks off bit of Kit-Kat bar for prize bull octorok]
posted by vrakatar at 4:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Let's remember something all of the wikileaks including the Donna Brazile emails -- we don't know how accurate they are. Even if the Clinton campaign or whoever sent them wanted to check them all to make sure they weren't modified, there are literally not enough hours in the day to go through thousands of emails to look for modifications.

It bothers me a great deal that the press accepts these uncritically while slapping "alleged" to the public and vetted statements of 12 women that Trump sexually abused them. Even after Trump confessed in general terms to doing so.
posted by msalt at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]


I polled everyone in my living room and they would like some apple sauce before teeth-brush-an-stories.
posted by BS Artisan at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [29 favorites]


Could you clarify what you mean by this? Because I'm reading it as "instead of being disappointed that your preferred candidate did something you find distasteful by using her establishment powers to her benefit and think is negatively affecting her image, just focus on how you can help your preferred candidate.....continue to use those establishment powers to her benefit?"
posted by Karaage at 4:30 PM on November 2 [+] [!]


Sorry, I thought you were coming from a "left critique of Clinton" point of view.

For my part I'm not disappointed or whatever in Clinton for using every institutional advantage to disadvantage her opponents, because politics is the skilled working of institutional advantage in order to disadvantage your opponents. like if you find that sort of thing distasteful, you find politics distasteful.

Really I think the main takeaway from this, going forward, is that good lord campaigns need to start encrypting their communications.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:41 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]




>Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?

I understand Canada is gonna build a big-ass wall between us and them. There's some disagreement about whether we're paying for it or not, but once that's ironed out it's going up... so anybody who wants to move better do it quick.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I know the next 6 days are going to be objectively just as long as any other 6 days. They're not going to feel like that, though.

To paraphrase Jane Austen, "Tuesday did come, and exactly when it might be reasonably looked for."
posted by uosuaq at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]


kravatar, that's a really good point -- there's early voter party affiliation data coming out of a few states, but it's probably safe to assume there are significantly more Republicans for Hillary than Democrats for Trump, so it's likely that those numbers are a little to the right of the actual vote totals.
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oklahoma republican's Facebook post sparks controversy
“I am not advocating to shoot, hurt or kill Hillary Clinton or anyone else. That is not what I meant by that. I was using the firing squad words to refer to what the punishment is for treason. Hillary Clinton has committed nothing less than treason by knowingly leaving our American troops over there to die,” he said.
These weasels always try to weasel out of what they have said/written. "I'm not advocating to kill Hillary, I just want to punish her for treason-- whatever punishment that might be." Hokay. Come right out and say it, then: "I think Hillary Clinton should be executed for committing treason. Because BenGHAAAAAAAAZI" No need to have a trial, no need to pay any attention to all of the many congressional hearings that have found she did nothing wrong. Just take her out and shoot her. Jesus.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


There's a report that Cruz will campaign with Pence tomorrow, so if you're a keen observer of invertebrates, that will be something to look for.

In other (CBS) news, there's a new feature What women who worked for Donald Trump have to say about him, it's a mixed bag, ending with:
Another woman who worked for Trump as an assistant in the late 1990’s said overall her experience was positive. But while she said his comments during the campaign about Mexicans and Muslims has surprised her, the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video with its lewd conversation between Trump and Billy Bush did not.

She also said Trump would regularly call in female employees to his office and ask them for their opinion about the three women he was dating at the time, one of whom was Melania, asking, “Which one do you think is the most attractive?”
Kind of gives the whole Meredith! thing a bit of a creepy vibe.
posted by zachlipton at 4:45 PM on November 2, 2016 [21 favorites]


Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos

...in a daily tracking poll. I mean, yes, better than it having collapsed after the Comey announcement so thumbs up I guess but we're still waiting for some good large sample live caller landline-and-cellphone polling from big national firms.
posted by Justinian at 4:45 PM on November 2, 2016


yoyoyo hoisted with yer own ardvarc kravatar is my alt universe bad guy, slow down
posted by vrakatar at 4:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I miss the salad days of whitehouse.org.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 4:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


I feel a deep need to see through the salvation or destruction of the republic with friends. Conversely, I feel like I should be home with my girlfriend for a moment like that (also because the success or failure of electing a woman to the presidency means more than a little).

Exact same dilemma. My sweetie is two hours away, will probably be half-working but it seems like an important night to hug and drink together no matter what happens. Maybe I answered my own question, even if the big parties will be here in Portland.
posted by msalt at 4:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


If anyone is alone in NYC on Tuesday, start a thread in IRL, we'll find a bar or something.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Oof, sorry vrakatar! I got overexcited by the sight of such a near-anagram of "aardvark".
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


@JDiamond1 Trump just now remarking he's trying to stay on message: "Stay on point Donald, right? Stay on point. No sidetracks, Donald. Nice and easy."


Hilarious. He is now just spitting out the instructions he got from his handlers just before getting on stage. Presidential, my ass.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [47 favorites]


the fact that they're putting money back into Colorado means their internal polling backs up the public polling.

Possibly. Possibly not. Time is now more limited than money. Ad slots are reserved, and if they're not used, some other org will fill them. Nobody on a campaign ever regretted overspending to win a state.

Oh, and this Awl piece means you never have to read another travelogue profile of Trump voters again.
posted by holgate at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


Yes yes all good polls are secretly bad and all bad polls are gospel we know
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


The #ImWithTur hashatg is the greatest. Lots of lovely, supportive people out there on the Twitters.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


I signed up for two in-person shifts at the local campaign joint on Tuesday (8-11 am; 2-5 pm), so that will keep me busy until the evening, and then I'll probably swing by here and try to keep myself hydrated enough to support several hours of turning, spitting, cursing, worrying, praying-while-atheist, and general anxiety-wallowing.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


hey wanna see something super sad? apparently the minecraft guy is hella trumpy

here's his twitter.

At first I thought he was joking, so I kept scrolling back. the last one I read before I had to stop was this one:

"People are just afraid to speak out against Hillary Clinton's corruption and the downfall of US democracy because Ghostbusters 2016"
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]


Our long national nightmare is drawing to an end. I place my faith in the candidate who is smart, resilient, hardworking and pragmatic.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Disapointed to find that @JDiamond1 is not, in fact, Joe Biden's account.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


The Trump International Hotel & Tower in Toronto is likely to hit the market as the owner of debt on the property seeks a sale.

"JCF Capital ULC, a closely held firm, recently bought the construction loan on the 65-story hotel and condominium building, and claims developer Talon International Inc. and related companies defaulted on making payments since last year. JCF Capital is seeking a court-supervised sales process for the property to recoup the outstanding $301 million on the debt, according to court filings made Tuesday [25 October 2016] under Canada’s bankruptcy and insolvency act."
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


@PpollingNumbers
@QuinnipiacPoll, Among Early Voters:

North Carolina:
Clinton 58 (+22)
Trump 36

#Ohio:
Clinton 58 (+26)
Trump 32

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail
posted by chris24 at 4:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


Justinian I say this with all the love in my heart, you need to smoke a big honking bowl of weed and chill the fuck out man
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:20 PM on November 2


Nice
posted by ejs at 4:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [116 favorites]


Hah, didn't even notice the time. Niiiiice.

I'm doing my part by voting for POT in California. Yes we can!
posted by Justinian at 4:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]


@alivitali Trump again conflating the 650,000 emails found on Weiner's laptop and the smaller # of emails re Clinton being reviewed.

This is his new trick. As if every single email off of Weiner's laptop is a previously deleted email from Clinton's server and each one will reveal her treasonous handling of highly confidential state secrets. More likely it's a combination of 10 Groupon emails a day/Can you pick up some milk/Don't forget your dental appt/Get the hot new pill that turn your dick into a firehose.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


Michael Cohen (the journalist, not the lawyer), thinks that Clinton is hitting a bunch of states to help with down-ticket races, not to prop up her own numbers. Threaded tweets, start here. Partial quote:
... her focus is certainly on swing states, but also on places where Dems are in close down ballot races ... today she's in Arizona, which has 2 close House races. ... but then look where she's not going: TX and GA, which are both close but only have one competitive House race between them
posted by maudlin at 5:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls? I don't get it -- why the mismatch?
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 5:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


This evening my wife got a vote shaming mailer from the CO Democratic Party. She dislikes these type of mailers intensely. I know there are reports that these things are effective (though I wonder how well those reports hold up to critical scrutiny), but the "voter report card" isn't even accurate. We've voted in every election (including this one) since we've moved to the state three years ago yet she gets a score of "average," which is below "good" and "excellent."

The mailer advises, "We plan to update this voter report card after the upcoming election and will be interested to see whether or not you voted."
posted by audi alteram partem at 5:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls? I don't get it -- why the mismatch?

Sheer panic causing her voters to vote as quickly as possible?
posted by peacheater at 5:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]


Democrats always overperform before election day and Republicans overperform on election day. The goal for Democrats is to run up the score enough pre-nov8 to overcome that.
posted by Justinian at 5:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


A theory I've read: polls may be measuring willingness to be polled -- "enthusiasm", if we must use that term -- as well as voting intentions. When Trump is doing badly in the media, he gets temporary slaps on the wrist from Republican officials and his supporters are more likely to avoid polling, thus dropping his numbers below their natural ceiling.
posted by maudlin at 5:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I can only speak to NC but it's generally known what portion of the electorate in a given state tends to vote early. In NC the Dems tend to pick up more early votes every year, and basically need to build up a firewall against same-day voting which favors Rs. (This is just in NC, idk about Ohio)
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls? I don't get it -- why the mismatch?

Presumably in part her campaign's superior ground game and the tendency of Democrat's to do better in early voting. It will tighten some on election day but hopefully not too much. I'd love to see double digit smack downs in most blue states.
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


For the past couple of election cycles, Democrats have heavily emphasized early voting. Basically, Democratic constituencies tend to be people who have a tough time making it to the polls. They're more likely to be single mothers with childcare issues, more likely to be low-income workers who can't get off work, more likely to have unreliable transportation, more likely to live in precincts that are being intentionally targeted by evil Republican vote suppression efforts, etc., etc., etc. In states with early voting, Democrats bank on winning big with early voting to offset having lower turnout on election day. And probably, a lot of Democratic early voters would have ended up voting anyway, but they're listening to pleas from canvassers and callers to vote early. So it's a good sign that Democrats are dominating early voting, but it's also true that it would be a very bad sign if they weren't.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Did I miss something about the election and Notch, xyzzy?
Well, according to YCTAB's comment and a stroll through his twitter, he apparently is claiming that twitter censors pro-Trump hashtags and that Hillary is evil. So, yeah, the inspiring words of a white billionaire. I still plan to play Minecraft, but I have known about his shitty personality for over two years.
posted by xyzzy at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Ohhhh, I missed YCTABs comment at first despite being glued to the thread. Guess that's what happens with 500 comments per hour. Thanks.
posted by Justinian at 5:09 PM on November 2, 2016


I took a trip to some of the stranger parts of the internet today and talk about going down the rabbithole - hoo boy there is some very disturbing lines of thought out there.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 5:10 PM on November 2, 2016


Yes - maudlin, I talked to a pollster who said that the post Comey Trump bump he was seeing was largely due to the same number of Trump voters answering the phone or agreeing to be polled, but a smaller number of Clinton voters than the previous few days.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


The Brazile email thing is stupid. That all of these emails are out there is like one side gets to play by one set of rules (they can strategize in secret) but Clinton's people's every move and past judgement can be second guessed out of context well after the fact. We don't know what anyone talked about on the phone or in person. We don't even know if emails weren't held back precisely because they gave a more complicated picture. We don't even really know who knew what when (I sincerely doubt Podesta reads every email he gets.) Even assuming Brazile is lying now that could just mean "deny everything" is a more media feasible response than nuanced truth or apologies in the week before the election.
posted by R343L at 5:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]




My fuckstick local news was going on about how to change your early vote. Didn't realize it was a Trump talking point. Figures.

Seriously though, how bad do you have to be losing to try to get folks to undo already cast votes?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


I'm assuming that a lot of the Clinton activity in PA these days (she's coming back on Friday afternoon, at Heinz Field) is in support of our super close Senate race.

I still have a rage hangover from seeing those smug Trump bros on campus today. That was the wrong moment for me to then come back on here and read yet another story about how downtrodden and ignored Trump voters are, because those dudes are like the least ignored demographic on the planet.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]


MY GOD I LOVE YOU.

As goes the JCPL, so the nation.
posted by corb at 5:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]


I took a trip to some of the stranger parts of the internet today and talk about going down the rabbithole - hoo boy there is some very disturbing lines of thought out there.

Earlier today, I was looking on Twitter to see what people were saying about Obama speaking at Chapel Hill this afternoon. His speech hadn't started yet, but a bunch of people were tweeting about all the terrible lies Obama was telling Chapel Hill students right then, as if his speech was already happening. Like, what were those people listening to? It was kind of surreal.
posted by bananana at 5:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Guys, if Trump had received multiple debate questions in advance with as much detail as this:

"One of the questions directed to HRC tomorrow is from a woman with a rash. Her family has lead poison and she will ask what, if anything, will Hillary do as president to help the [people] of Flint.”

We'd all be up in arms and asking for the leaker/cheaters to be shamed and punished, at the very least.

So can we not be hypocrites when the cheating happens to benefit Clinton? It's embarrassing.

It's completely possible and okay that she can be a flawed, dishonest politician and still be the better choice here. It's okay to vote for her and be disappointed in her. It's a completely logical and acceptable position. She does not need to be a shining beacon of integrity to come out ahead of Trump. We don't need to apologize or gloss over her misdeeds when the misdeeds of the other candidate are, truly, so much worse.
posted by rokusan at 5:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [52 favorites]


The fabulous Alexandra Erin shares the bitter truth: "The longer this election wears on, the more I feel like @StephenKing's Dead Zone had an optimistic fairy tale ending." It's a set of threaded tweets and well worth reading through to the end.
posted by maudlin at 5:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [21 favorites]


Besides, it wouldn't matter if Trump were coached. He would give the Trump evasion, and pretend to be an expert in lead poisoning. It is a null point.
posted by Oyéah at 5:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Lisa Bloom, representing the woman accusing Trump of rape, now says:
Our firm's website was reportedly hacked today, as well as emails. Anonymous claims responsibility.
She RTs a tweet that purports to be such a claim of responsibility, for whatever it's worth.
posted by zachlipton at 5:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls?

From the moment Trump secured the nomination, no result other than a landslide for Clinton has really been possible. They hoped for (and even worked toward getting) the weakest possible opponent, and oh boy did they get their wist, the rest has been foregone conclusion.

I don't really get the anxiety or worry about this, and never have. It's only the desperate media desire to cover a horserace (and both campaigns' desire to create the illusion of one, for obvious reasons) that's produced any of this "closeness".
posted by rokusan at 5:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


I will be election watching with my fellow rebel delegates from the RNC. We will be packing into a bar to be complicatedly happyish sort of at how the election goes together.
posted by corb at 5:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [54 favorites]


Like, what were those people listening to?

The memo from Moscow? (More likely they were just throwing all manner of shit at the wall to see what might show up in hashtag and keyword searches.)
posted by holgate at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


It's completely possible and okay that she can be a flawed, dishonest politician and still be the better choice here. It's okay to vote for her and be disappointed in her.

It's also completely possible that some of us do. not. give. a. fuck. and/or don't think she or her people did anything wrong.

My god, I wish I could personally kick James Comey in the shin for making this conversation raise its trivial stupid head yet AGAIN.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [63 favorites]


In all seriousness one of my very very bright friends (who happens to be female) made a similar argument about the timing of the claims.

She first filed in April.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


What a horrible election.

A Facebook friend (Clinton supporter, but still) has been regularly reacting with amusement to all the election hijinks and crowing "this is the best election ever!"

Today is when I finally went off on him about 'no, it's really, really not."
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


JSB - Justinian-strength benzodiazepine.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]


Rokusan, I would agree, if Hillary had gotten those questions, but she didn't. Podesta did,and he says he didn't tell Hillary. You can choose to believe or not, but he's always been aware of, and in compliance with the rules, as far as I can tell.

That said, trump has had multiple paid staffers also being paid as CNN analysts, so if information was being dropped by CNN to the dems, I guarantee it dropped for the reps.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]


As goes the JCPL, so the nation.

When they go low, we get high…?
posted by nicepersonality at 5:31 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


The memo from Moscow? (More likely they were just throwing all manner of shit at the wall to see what might show up in hashtag and keyword searches.)

Yeah, a lot of them had usernames involving the word "deplorable" and stuff about hating Hillary in their profiles.

Pretty sure those people were listening to Rush Limbaugh.
posted by bananana at 5:32 PM on November 2, 2016


It's not hypocritical to say we don't know everything. It's not hypocritical to acknowledge that 100% perfect openness about every mistake made is an infeasible decision for a campaign to make. This close to the election you don't apologize for anything. It's not hypocritical for me to concede that reality and not demand purity and perfection that are not only impossible (humans make mistakes!) but make it impossible to win elections.
posted by R343L at 5:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


I hope all the candidates did get slipped questions in advance. I mean, hell, PLEASE, let's give them all the debate questions in advance and let them have plenty of time to come up with, I dunno, intelligent well-thought-out nuanced complex substantive meaningful answers. (Or the closest some mouth-breathing damnfools can get).

It's not a pop quiz, for crying out loud.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [52 favorites]


I just got invited to my second secret pro-Hillary Facebook group. I needed this today (apparently one wasn't enough!)
posted by misskaz at 5:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]


the R party was taken over by a total crank In 1980? That was really the beginning.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I actually have never really given a rat's ass about debate question secrecy. I'm not really electing based on ability to speak extemporaneously on a randomly ass-pulled topic for 2 minutes. It's not the fucking SATs, it's a chance to hear from both candidates about what their policies and positions are. It's a shitty format for that but it's not improved by this weird veil of secrecy over the questions. So I actually wouldn't care if (and for all we know, they did) the Trump team or anyone else knew a question or two in advance.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]


I polled everyone in my living room and they would like some apple sauce before teeth-brush-an-stories.

Now that's a platform I can get behind. What's the story tonight?
posted by eclectist at 5:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


What is hypocritical is that relatively minor errors of Clinton or her campaign get ten or fifty times the attention of egregiously immoral and/or illegal behavior by Trump. Sometimes it's not even a real error of Clinton or her campaign but it takes over the front page of the NYT anyway. So I'll ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ at minor campaign shenanigans - people make mistakes of judgement. I can forgive that.
posted by R343L at 5:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [56 favorites]




(longtime ruiner of own ocular nerves through late-night election thread reading, first time poster)

I'm in the swingiest part of the swingiest state--the I-4 corridor in Florida, where the tide of crazy to the north surges on the shore of the equal (but different) crazy to the south. In the past five hours I've had calls from the Clinton campaign making sure that I was voting for them, another, different call from the Clinton campaign asking me for last-minute donations / volunteering, and a call from a pollster that asked me lots of heavily-loaded questions like "does knowing that Felix McPolitics is a bloated, spherical plutocrat with hotels on both Park Place and Boardwalk and an armchair made out of the taxidermied infants of the poor make you more or less likely to vote for him?" My Facebook feed is like a dumpster fire that someone has attempted to extinguish by repeatedly piling more trash onto. From a political standpoint, it feels like I've put on one of those huge puffy coverall suits with the face mask and am being violently assaulted by dogs.

And yet fall is finally here after a sticky, seemingly-endless summer, bringing with it drier weather, cooler temperatures, and slants of light (someone once told me that, for six months out of the year, you wonder why anyone would ever want to live in Florida, and for the other six you wonder why anyone would ever live anywhere else). The baby gets me up very early, so I'm always awake for the sunrise. I take my coffee out in the front yard, listen to the susurration of the traffic (louder in the early mornings due to some mysterious sonic alchemy I have never understood), and watch the sun start to filter through the Spanish moss hanging from the live oaks. It feels so much like spring mornings in the Northwest during my college days, days that were full of active, smart people having (more or less) intelligent, lucid conversations about politics.

I stand there breathing that in for about ten minutes every morning, and it gets me through most of the day. It's only in the evenings that the itching and the screaming terrors set in.
posted by lorddimwit at 5:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [176 favorites]


Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa. I basically day on the sidelines apart from donating in 2008 despite my great enthusiasm, and dipped a toe in phonebanking and data entry in 2012, but the bullshit email resurrection and attendant tightening (which may even predate the Comey letter, FFS) makes me want to go full fucking bore here. Not that I think Trump might win, but the threatening of the landslide/congressional majority ticks me off bad. LET'S DO THIS.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [105 favorites]


The fabulous Alexandra Erin shares the bitter truth: "The longer this election wears on, the more I feel like @StephenKing's Dead Zone had an optimistic fairy tale ending." It's a set of threaded tweets and well worth reading through to the end.

I posted something similar in one of these threads except, obviously, less eloquent but at least in greater than 140 character chunks. It's obviously what has happened.

This is well known psychologically. It's how you develop blackmail material. It's how you make child soldiers. It's how you make fanatics. Start little by little having them sacrifice a piece of themselves. Every time they do, they're a little more in your power. And you don't even necessarily have to do anything! They've come this far and they can't admit it's been a terrible mistake. They can't admit they've fucked up. So the only way is forward. And, eventually, you get them to do something terrible enough that there is no going back. And they're yours.

That's where Trump's supporters are. They've given themselves up inch by inch and now there isn't anything left but forward. I guess they never read V for Vendetta 'cause they gave up that last inch without even a thought.
posted by Justinian at 5:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [61 favorites]


If we are going to have pop quiz-style debate questions, I wish they were real ones. Not "what up with your emails?" for the 500th time or "please recite your rehearsed statement on your plan for [TOPIC X] that anyone can see on your website," but stuff like "what is your view on Erdogan's assertion of Turkish claims to Mosul and how will these claims impact future US-Turkey relations and US military operations in Iraq?"

Now, if journalists ask questions like that, they're attacked for asking gotcha questions (and I might agree if it was a question about an obscure cold border dispute that gets no press or attention), but that's actually the kind of thing someone who wants to be President should be knowledgeable enough to talk about for a minute or two.
posted by zachlipton at 5:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [34 favorites]


There is a lot of anecdotal evidence suggesting that Republican women are telling their husbands and pollsters that of course they're voting for Trump, but not necessarily planning to do that in the actual secret ballot voting booth largely because of the whole pussy-grabbing dame-numbering dressing-room-invading thing, which women tend to find much more compelling because they've actually had to deal with creeps like that themselves.

The William & Mary College exit polls of Florida early voters showing Republican voters going 28% for Clinton would seem to support this. This is not at all the traditional phenomenon of early voting favoring Democrats. If even a third of that trend holds true, the election is over and Hillary can start ordering the window treatments for the White House.
posted by Bringer Tom at 5:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [26 favorites]


Election Forum At Orthodox Synagogue Exposes Rift Among New York City Jews

[Heshy] Friedman, the “Jewish Democrats for Trump” activist, said he voted Democrat in local New York races but supported Republicans at the top of the ticket. [...]
Hmm. Heshy Friedman. Where did I hear that name before. Ah, here it is:
Meet the One-Man Homophobia Machine
According to reports, anti-gay protester Heshy Friedman had to hire day laborers to pose alongside him at New York’s LGBT Pride Parade on Sunday. His hate group may have just one member—himself.
Not only is this story a beat-up (a national report on a meeting held in a local Jewish school that attracted 100 people? And which couldn't even find any pro-Trump speakers?) but they may have based their claims of a "rift" on the ravings of a nutcase. Couldn't they have Googled it?
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]



Seriously though, how bad do you have to be losing to try to get folks to undo already cast votes?


I don't know who would care enough to early vote for Clinton and also be so upset by the Comey letter that they would want to switch to Trump.
posted by zutalors! at 5:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]


Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa.

I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you.

Really, thank you, and I hope it goes great!
posted by zachlipton at 5:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]


So those 20-30% Dem early voting margins are basically normal in terms of past elections? Nothing to get excited about?
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 5:55 PM on November 2, 2016


So uh, the Louisiana Senate debate is...something
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Vote for the lizard, not for the wizard...
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yeah, T.D.Strange, watching it wrap up right now. If you thought the Prez and Veep debates were amateur hour shit shows, let's just say you ain't seen nuthin.
posted by Bringer Tom at 5:58 PM on November 2, 2016


These Wikileaks Emails Prove Just What a Monster Hillary Clinton Is [real emails, sarcastic headline]
posted by misskaz at 6:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]


I'm really worried about how fucked the post election culture is going to be. From Trumps crowing about a rigged election to the extremely small but publicly noted voter fraud cases inspired by Trump's campaign, to Trump encouraging early voters to change their vote- its a cascading mess that will be used to delegitimize a Hillary win, and lend itself to uncertainty after the election. Iveorry that the election will end up being the beginning of the madness, not the end.

I'm not sure what's next, but I'm afraid for us.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 6:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


Oh, if you watched the LA SEN debate from the beginning, the reason the moderator let Duke get away with that was that there was an extended shouting match between them earlier over Duke not being allowed extra time to rebut attacks against him by other candidates in the course of answering unrelated questions.
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Hillary can start ordering the window treatments for the White House.

Bill's job.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 6:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [164 favorites]


I can't tell if I'm going to hyperventilate, burst into tears, or vomit. I just pray it's only one of them.
posted by aramaic at 6:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


Lisa Bloom, representing the woman accusing Trump of rape, now says:
Our firm's website was reportedly hacked today, as well as emails. Anonymous claims responsibility.


i've been trying to open that site since it was first linked here this afternoon with no luck at all.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


its a cascading mess that will be used to delegitimize a Hillary win, and lend itself to uncertainty after the election.

Worth remembering that various morons claimed that Obama was a secret Kenyan Muslim for 8 whole years, and the wheels of government still turned.

You can burn that bridge when you come to it.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa.

Oh boy good luck to you. I'd never canvass for a Democrat in Tampa, and that's where I grew up. Florida Man is out of his mind.
posted by dis_integration at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'm really worried about how fucked the post election culture is going to be.

You forgot the Party of Trump still in control of at least one house of Congress, with an open Supreme Court seat, and a federal government already operating without a budget.

November 8 is not the end, if anything it's only the turning point when things get even worse.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Worth remembering that various morons claimed that Obama was a secret Kenyan Muslim for 8 whole years, and the the wheel of government stilled turned turned for two years then ground to a halt sporadically pushing against themselves to make sure government barely stayed alive.

FTFY.
posted by Talez at 6:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


Today the two little girls walking home from school in front of us stopped to read the signs at the Crazy Trump House, which currently read HILLARY IS A CRIMINAL BITCH and something about Bill raping children. I said, "oh don't read that, girls! Please don't read any of that," and they looked uncomfortable like kids do when somebody else's parent reprimands them. (Not my intention, obviously. Oops.)

Then I went home and cried for about the hundredth time this election cycle. There is no way to protect all of the people in this country who need to be protected from all of this.
posted by gerstle at 6:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [93 favorites]


These Wikileaks Emails Prove Just What a Monster Hillary Clinton Is [real emails, sarcastic headline]

I read these and I think, goddamn, this woman is totally a human being! With like, real human feelings and compassion!

VOTE FOR THE ONLY HUMAN BEING 2016
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [35 favorites]


Yeah, what is left of the GOP will move left, the Donnie crowd will form a lunatic third party, and we will all live to see an evolution of the political landscape. The future is here- women and "minorities" are the votes that matter now, and that ought to drive the agenda. Sorry asshole white males, your 200 plus years are over.
posted by vrakatar at 6:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory" and for some reason it makes me so happy, so thank you Justinian, this election has been a time of real joy for me.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 6:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [81 favorites]


Carrying over from previous thread re: WTF OHIO!!!!!????@&$&$-$+#!!!!

1) Ohio, like pretty much every state, is an urban archipelago of blue in a sea of rural/exurban/suburban red. Map of 2012. The blue counties are essentially cities (Cleveland, Columbus, Youngstown, etc.) or college towns (Athens, Bowling Green). Obama managed to capture a fairly high percent of votes in some outlier counties (Ashtabula, Erie), that tend to be total tossups.

2) This year there's some evidence that those outlier counties, especially around Youngstown, maybe even Youngstown proper, are going red. Probably a combo of racial resentment, sexism, and poor economies.

3) But. I think the Ohio results will be enlightening about the value of GOTV /ground games and whether polls are accurately capturing the electorate. I've done 4 canvassing shifts since Oct 12, when early voting started in Ohio. All in pretty low-income areas with mostly black and Latinx residents, calling on Dem voters to encourage them to vote early if possible, or at least make the effort to get out on Nov 8. I've only run into 2 people who are registered who are either not voting or not voting for Hillary. Otherwise it's been "Hell Yeah Hillary." Even the couple of folks who forgot to register. . . .

But only about half of the people I've talked to are the people I've got listed at that address. Low income people move a lot, or are registered at a relative's address. Is the campaign missing folks due to this inaccurate info? Probably. Am I reaching folks who might otherwise not have gotten a friendly nudge, or known they could vote early? Yes.

So. I still hope like hell that Ohio goes blue, and if it does I think it's pretty strong evidence that GOTV efforts work, and that a lot of pollsters should rethink their methodology.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


So what's the deal with Congress? We gonna get a Dem Senate for a little while?
posted by infinitewindow at 6:10 PM on November 2, 2016


My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.
posted by Slothrup at 6:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [83 favorites]


Yeah, what is left of the GOP will move left, the Donnie crowd will form a lunatic third party, and we will all live to see an evolution of the political landscape.

Will this really happen? If the GOP was to split in this fashion - into one faction of of what the GOP has historically pretended to be, ie 'real' small government, anti-tax and regulation guys, and then another faction of loose cannon Trumpite racist, sexist assholes - wouldn't that basically assure a Democratic victory in future elections?

Would those smaller parties have any hope of competing against a united Dem party?
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]




Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa.

Thank you! My ballot left Mississauga this morning en route to Hamilton County, OH, where I last lived in the States* and where my father lives now, but Tampa is home, and what you're doing means a lot to me.

* Because I follow tf through and "just moved to Canada" nine years ago. (FWIW if you complete a two-year degree in Canada, you're eligible for a three-year open work permit, which gives you more than enough time to find employment or shack up—I opted for the latter and became a permanent resident two years ago.)
posted by wreckingball at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory

That didn't last long Off-Broadway...
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]


My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

So a real life example of the republican primaries and Trump's visibility on TV?
posted by [insert clever name here] at 6:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders

Am I the only one who swore that the POTUS was quoting Star Wars?
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]


In this case, I think you're allowed to use stronger language around your four year old than you might otherwise.
posted by mollweide at 6:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]



In all seriousness one of my very very bright friends (who happens to be female) made a similar argument about the timing of the claims. But it's just so easy to counter - given what the man himself has said about his behavior and inability or unwillingness to control it and the dozen other women suggesting he was telling the truth about himself, how could we not be more than a little interested in the substance of these claims.


Also, she's making these claims not just to the media, but first and foremost as part of a legal process, which means she'll be deposed, under oath, on pain of perjury charges. There's little reason to doubt her story unless one just really wants to.
posted by Gelatin at 6:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


And now Trump is channelling Gollum.
posted by holgate at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

That's actually fascinating. As a kid I always thought JFK was a bad man and I think it is because i misinterpreted my parents discussions about how sad and tragic his assignation was. What happened to him was bad - not he was bad. Kid brains.
posted by double bubble at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]


Would those smaller parties have any hope of competing against a united Dem party?

I'm not sure, but I think the dems- who have rifts of their own- would have to go hard at those newly lefty GOP voters and operatives and maybe cement a several decade majority. If a vanilla, standard repub like Mitt Romney couldn't beat the dems nationally, going down the donnie hole is not going to work for them going forward. Then again every 4 years we focus all this political energy on two candidates, and a terrible candidate with good policies can be beat by an appealing candidate with unclear or shitty policies. Ask John Kerry. That is one reason why I wish we voted for party not person here in the USA, then force the top winning parties to govern together, but I'm a crackpot of some sort.
posted by vrakatar at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Generally, I avoid the fuck out of Facebook, but I've been trying to reconnect with a friend of mine who is only active on Internet social media via Facebook. And like, back in high school, I was part of this circle of nerdy, dorky arts-adjacent kids. We're talking really nerdy. ElfQuest nerdy. Full performances of Rent on back porches nerdy. Urkel if he'd been into Norse mythology nerdy. You can imagine how this went down in the suburbs in the mid-nineties, but hey, one of us had a steady boyfriend! She was dating this guy who was sweet and nerdy and really into playing his trumpet. They really liked each other! He seemed like a good guy!

Tonight, on Facebook, I find out that in the intervening 15 years, the ex-boyfriend has become super-Christian, and is fucking posting on Facebook, approving how his pastor says that voting for Trump is like chemotherapy, because it will feel awful, but will kill what's wrong with America.

Which is offensive to me on multiple levels. First, thanks for trivializing chemotherapy, while also simultaneously rubbing salt into the wounds of every goddamn person who has had a loved one who died of cancer when the chemo didn't work.

And second.

WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK IS THE CANCER IN THIS SCENARIO

BESIDES THE QUEER, NERDY, DORKY, ARTSY LIBERALS WHO SAT AROUND IN A WOOD PANELED BASEMENT WITH YOU FOR FUCKING HOURS, LISTENING TO YOU PLAY YOUR NERDY FUCKING MUSICAL COMPOSITIONS ON THE ELECTRONIC KEYBOARD OF THE GIRL WHO THOUGHT SHE WAS ELFQUEST CHARACTER, AND WAS CONVINCED THAT READING THE COMICS WERE TRIGGERING MEMORIES OF HER PAST LIFE AS A WOLFRIDER

I swear to God. So yes, I guess I know not just one, but two Trump supporters in real life, and for the record, this one is also white and male, and isn't poor either -- apparently, he's a fucking UX designer for a network security firm, and he just bought a lovely new house with four bedrooms in an exurb!
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [82 favorites]


That didn't last long Off-Broadway...

Jesus Christ! Superstar!
Came to earth on a Yamaha!
posted by Talez at 6:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


That is one reason why I wish we voted for party not person here in the USA, then force the top winning parties to govern together, but I'm a crackpot of some sort.

Take it from an Australian, the Westminster system does not guarantee you won't get a gormless grinning sociopath.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


I'd earlier asked about driving people to the polls and got some good advice about seeing if churches are doing it, but as I'm not entirely comfortable volunteering through a church and I didn't find anything else, I took the other suggested path and signed up to canvass on election day and on the weekend before, after work. They haven't gotten back to me yet, so I don't know what exactly I'm doing yet, but I'm hoping for decent weather (Duluth can be awful nasty in November.) and not getting sent over to the rich people side of the hill. If I can somehow canvass around where I live, that'd be amazing.

Largely because of everyone here being so supportive and sharing stories about it, I'm going to try my best to ignore the massive anxiety I feel about walking up to a strangers house and asking them about politics in favor of focusing my mind on helping my neighbors vote. Gonna do our best to keep Duluth as blue as the great big lake it's next to.
posted by neonrev at 6:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]


My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

It's going to be ok. I liked Bush (Senior) when I was around that age, mostly because he had a funny name and I knew what a bush was, and also because he was for low taxes, a policy position that was immediately appealing to young me, because taxes meant people taking away your stuff and getting seemingly nothing in return. This too will pass.
posted by zachlipton at 6:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


So yes, I guess I know not just one, but two Trump supporters in real life,

Only two? Lordy, do I envy you or what?!?!
posted by double bubble at 6:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


I actually don't know any. But I'm not on Facebook really so that constrains the number of people I "know."
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


I liked Bush (Senior) when I was around that age, mostly because he had a funny name

There was like a week back in 2000 when 8 year-old me heard the name Nader and got really excited until my parents stopped me somehow. Kids like funny names, and the ones they hear the most stick better.
posted by neonrev at 6:34 PM on November 2, 2016


David Duke just had a literal meltdown on television. Hopefully he's done.
posted by guiseroom at 6:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


Only two? Lordy, do I envy you or what?!?!

The people I know generally fit into circles on a Venn diagram labeled:

1. Non-white people, and white people who married them.
2. LGBTQA people.
3. Professional women doing it for themselves in spite of domineering white asshole men who think their wealth makes them more important and brilliant than they are.

It isn't Trump-friendly soil.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]


We would have been better if in January we had allowed journalists to say, "with all due respect, are you insane?"
posted by Talez at 6:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


I was part of this circle of nerdy, dorky arts-adjacent kids. We're talking really nerdy. ElfQuest nerdy. Full performances of Rent on back porches nerdy.

Wait. Rent kids were still reading Elfquest?!

I have hope for the future.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


I actually don't know any.

Not only do I know A LOT of people supporting Trump, I know plenty of people i (formerly) considered rational, reasonable and smart who support Trump. I'm kinda depressed about myself thinking about it. I'm sure my ties to people in Oklahoma are skewing my "friend sample set" but even with that, I've had a few real surprises amongst my acquaintances. It's been a real eye opener.
posted by double bubble at 6:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


Yeah I don't know any Trump people either as far as I know. All the Bernie people I know are now happily for Clinton. I know one longtime Republican who is voting Johnson.
posted by zutalors! at 6:44 PM on November 2, 2016


We would have been better if in January we had allowed journalists to say, "with all due respect, are you insane?"

I think there's a compelling class action case against CNN to force Jeff Zucker to divvy that extra $100m among the entire population.
posted by holgate at 6:46 PM on November 2, 2016


The people I know generally fit into circles on a Venn diagram labeled:

This makes me unaccountably happy. My wife thanks you for rescuing my mood, which had gone pretty much to hell earlier.

I love this place.
posted by Mooski at 6:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


So this is...different

WaPo Trump: U.S. should accept ‘tremendous numbers’ of legal immigrants based on merit
PENSACOLA, Fla. — After months of declaring that he would curtail legal and illegal immigration, Donald Trump proclaimed at a campaign rally on Wednesday night that as president he would allow “tremendous numbers” of legal immigrants based on a “merit system.”

“I want people to come in. I want tremendous numbers of people to come in,” Trump said at a rally here, his third campaign stop in Florida on Wednesday. “And we’re going to have that big, beautiful door in the wall. But you know what? They have to come in through a process. They have to come in legally.”

Trump was then cut off by loud cheers from the crowd and many of his supporters shouting: “Legally!”

“They have to come in legally,” Trump said, continuing. “And we’ll have merit involved, too. Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country? Wouldn’t that be nice? Somebody said: 'You can’t say that; that’s not politically correct.' Well, I just said it, folks.”
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 6:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Looks like the Cubs may pull out a World Series victory.

A very worried part of me thinks that some loyal Cubs fan made a truly evil pact with a ghoul in exchange for a title which has been the cause of the crazy year of 2016, which will end with Trump's election and the end of world in a nuclear Armageddon type fashion.

So, I've got no love for the Indians but I hope they win.
posted by localhuman at 6:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


No one check the Cubs score.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]




Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".

I wasn't aware that he was running for office but I suppose if any republicans want to write him in instead of voting for Trump, I won't complain.
posted by nolnacs at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


the non-deplorable part of the working class

They are voting for Clinton. And they voted for Clinton in greater numbers than for Sanders in the primary too.

Or do you mean "white working class?" Because at this point the actual working class is decidedly more brown, female, and urban than either Trumps' or Sanders' constituency. And Hillary is winning them bigly, as she did in the primary.

The issue has little to do with the actual infests of working class people. But if you watch TV you'd think "working class" meant only white folks, and all those brown city women earning $11 an hour cleaning hotels and caring for children and taking care of the elderly are obviously the elite bourgeoisie. Whereas a white coal miner or machinist earning three times as much is an oppressed worker whose needs must be considered as special, because whiteness.

Yeah there are a lot of poor white people, and they are majority for Trump just like middle class white people. It isn't because Trunp is a champion of the interests of workers, but because he a champion of white privilege.

Liberals need to be cautious about the easy collapse of the category of "working class" into the category of "white guy in hard hat worried about his job." It's easy to do.

The party supported by most non-white working-class people is the party that supports broad working-class economic interests like a robust safety net and workplace safety regulations and a higher minimum wage and universal health coverage and cheaper higher education. If they voted their economic rather than cultural interests, white workers would be in solidarity and be much better off.
posted by spitbull at 6:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [112 favorites]


Secret Life of Gravy:

That kind of merit system probably goes something like this:
White ✓
Heternormative ✓

I imagine him and his supporters are daydreaming about some kind of repeat of European immigration to the US.
posted by constantinescharity at 6:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Less FBI harassing Clinton and more Elfquest please
posted by Brainy at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


Tonight, on Facebook, I find out that in the intervening 15 years, the ex-boyfriend has become super-Christian...
Dude. Dude! I have one of those, too! Not an ex, but my best friend for awhile was a liberal Buddhist guy who loved to wear women's clothes out to queer clubs on weekends. I taught him how to do makeup and he taught me to check my privilege. Now he's a Trump loving doomsday prepper who lives in the wilds of Alaska and literally keeps a small plane gassed up out back in case the government comes to take his guns. Like, HOW IS THIS A THING THAT CAN HAPPEN. I accepted his friend request a few years ago, but after reading his wall I just sat back in morbid fascination as I watched this creature evolve. I am occasionally tempted to cautiously ask him what happened, but I am too scared.
posted by xyzzy at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]


I do know a couple of salty Berners but as far as I know they are holding their noses to save us from the obviously much worse option.

Among my co-workers, one is a former OFA field organizer and Trump is a universal grim joke in the office. Liz Warren came to give a rally that happened to be held in my building (there's a ballroom upstairs) and several of my colleagues turned up to cheer loudly. My parents are libertarians and despise Trump. My in-laws are lifelong liberal Democrats and my mother in law was a SEIU union organizer for many years. One of my friends is the Democratic mayor of one of those small dying Western PA mill towns and she is totally in the bag for Hillz. My social circle is not Trump friendly.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


“They have to come in legally,” Trump said, continuing. “And we’ll have merit involved, too. Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country? Wouldn’t that be nice? Somebody said: 'You can’t say that; that’s not politically correct.' Well, I just said it, folks.”

It's quite close to what he was saying during his big immigration speech back on Aug 31 -- part of the path to citizenship would depend on the "ability to successfully assimilate" and "we" get to choose who stays. He didn't go into exactly what or how we defined merit, but the gesture was there even back then.
posted by mochapickle at 6:57 PM on November 2, 2016


Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".

I wasn't aware that he was running for office but I suppose if any republicans want to write him in instead of voting for Trump, I won't complain.


That's Republican, we count those.
posted by ymgve at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country?

Rich people. Talk about pay for play....
posted by vrakatar at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


So what'd David Duke do? I'm curious but not curious enough to watch the video and have to actually listen to him talk
posted by Sing Or Swim at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Just for the sake of clarity:

Dude. Dude! I have one of those, too! Not an ex, but

The guy in my comment did not date me. He dated my nerdy friend with whom I used to eat Jelly Bellys and make up Norse god fanfiction. In fact, I think the nerdy friend is currently a mefite, because I spotted on her Ask Metafilter a while back. :D
posted by joyceanmachine at 7:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


Now he's a Trump loving doomsday prepper who lives in the wilds of Alaska and literally keeps a small plane gassed up out back in case the government comes to take his guns.

"Oh my gosh, the FBI! Here for my AR-15, you say? Sure, I'll be happy to hand that right over. But first I just need to go into the kitchen for a sec to check on the steamed hams"
posted by Greg Nog at 7:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]


Every time I think, "This feels a lot like Prop 8, nobody I know would vote for it, and the polls were leaning anti-, but still it passed," I come visit the new election thread to be reassured. So, thanks.
posted by blnkfrnk at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Yeah, none of my people are trump people, but I just don't talk politics with people I think are likely to be trumpists. Because I just don't want to know. I can't. This election is breaking my heart, and I just cannot. But, like I said before, I haven't been on Facebook since summer 2015, and I just don't have it in me to go back now.

I am not sure I would have made it through this election sane without all y'all.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".
I wasn't aware that he was running for office


well he had woody guthrie's vote
posted by entropicamericana at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Soooooooo, Trump's "new" immigration policy sounds like the one we've had in place for years.

Such a nasty man.
posted by allthinky at 7:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


After signing up months ago as a potential volunteer and donating a few times, I got my first call from the Hillary campaign today. I guess I shouldn't have expected there to be many events here in Red-as-Hell Louisiana, but I was still surprised that I haven't been contacted outside of the zillion emails a day asking for more donations. The guy left a message (I was on a work call at the time) asking me to come to the local HQ to make calls. I may actually go, just to feel like I've contributed something.

This sounds way more glum than I intended, but I guess I'm just sad to be in a sea of red where there is never much interest from the democrats, and where I feel like my vote is pointless (I will absolutely always vote anyway). Maybe I'm just exhausted by this whole campaign. Hopefully on Tuesday night I'll be getting drunk with friends and celebrating a Hillary victory, and this funk will be lifted.
posted by tryniti at 7:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]


David Duke just had a literal meltdown on television. Hopefully he's done.

He's been done since he plowed his campaign finances into his gambling addiction back in 1995 (which one of his R opponents actually brought up in the debate). I'm frankly a bit surprised that some Russian mafioso hasn't whacked him for further gambling debts. He only barely squeaked onto the debate stage via the 5% polling cutoff and there was never any realistic chance that he would make the runoff. Unfortunately, there's also not much chance that either of the Democrats will make it either, but that's another shit show.
posted by Bringer Tom at 7:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".

A few years back he greeted everyone at my polling place. It was awkward.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


David Frum: The Conservative Case for Voting for Clinton:
This November, however, I am voting not to advance my wish-list on taxes, entitlements, regulation, and judicial appointments. I am voting to defend Americans' profoundest shared commitment: a commitment to norms and rules that today protect my rights under a president I don’t favor, and that will tomorrow do the same service for you.

Vote the wrong way in November, and those norms and rules will shudder and shake in a way unequaled since the Union won the Civil War.

I appreciate that Donald Trump is too slovenly and incompetent to qualify as a true dictator. This country is not so broken as to allow a President Trump to arrest opponents or silence the media. Trump is a man without political ideas. Trump's main interest has been and will continue to be self-enrichment by any means, no matter how crooked. His next interest after that is never to be criticized by anybody for any reason, no matter how justified—maybe most especially when justified. Yet Trump does not need to achieve a dictatorship to subvert democracy. This is the age of “illiberal democracy,” as Fareed Zakaria calls it, and across the world we’ve seen formally elected leaders corrode democratic systems from within. Surely the American system of government is more robust than the Turkish or Hungarian or Polish or Malaysian or Italian systems. But that is not automatically true. It is true because of the active vigilance of freedom-loving citizens who put country first, party second. Not in many decades has that vigilance been required as it is required now.

Your hand may hesitate to put a mark beside the name, Hillary Clinton. You’re not doing it for her. The vote you cast is for the republic and the Constitution.
posted by zachlipton at 7:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [74 favorites]




If anyone needs a quiet, calming, earnestly humorous TV show where the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives and there's lots of slow mo pastoral beauty and folk music, I cannot reccomend binge watching both seasons of Detectorists on Netflix highly enough. I'm on my second go through. It briefly restores my faith in people for 30 minutes at a time and soothes me with acoustic guitars.

Self-care, y'all. It's important.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]


So what'd David Duke do? I'm curious but not curious enough to watch the video and have to actually listen to him talk

Went on and on at the moderator about being interrupted and having a right to respond and the media deciding who can speak and him not being allowed to answer and not getting a chance to make his statement and being silenced and the government is targeting him.

Also, he overpaid his taxes by $6,000.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:12 PM on November 2, 2016


scaryblackdeath: hang out with your friends and don't worry about your girlfriend. Sounds like she'll be distracted and fine.

I have my volunteer job going on all night that night, which means sadly I have to stay sober. No TV but we have Internet. I'm going to bring in Chinese food and probably hog the computer all night.

I am listening to Mike Daisey's The Trump Card while I read and drink. I am also writing my NaNo novel on presidents this year so....writing about Washington, who was so modest he didn't want to put himself forward. Yeah. I miss those days that I never saw.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


" praying-while-atheist"

Mimicking the way some voters have liked to exchange vote-swaps between safe and swing states, this year the Democratic Party will be arranging invocation swaps. You, as an atheist Democratic voter, commit to performing multiple profane curses on behalf of a religious Democratic voter, who will in turn perform the same number of prayers to one or more deities on your behalf. In this fashion Democrats can maximize both the prayers and curses on their candidates' behalfs without violating any rules. Please follow @AngelsAndDemonsDNC on Twitter for updates!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [34 favorites]


While Tuesday will definitely be a day for anti-anxiety medication in general I feel like the Comey bullshit has been safely defused. I suspect it was never really about helping Trump out too much but instead helping down-ballot Republicans get the wavering Republican voters.

NC and Virginia are looking more and more solid all the time which helps with weakness in Ohio. Florida will be a nailbiter but I strongly suspect that LV screens are unfairly hampering Clinton in regards to first time voters.

I also feel cautiously optimistic about the Senate although the GOP is dropping some serious cash to take down Bayh in Indiana. Most analysts seem to think a 51-49 or 50-50 Dem split.

House of course will stay useless but Issa looks like he's probably toast so small comfort.

Clinton+ Senate Majority for 2016-2018 means Scalia and RBG seats get replaced which seems like about the limit of what's actually achievable.
posted by vuron at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2016


earnestly humorous TV show where the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives

Well, except for Simon and Garfunkel.
posted by valkane at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


...I suppose if any republicans want to write [Jesus] in instead of voting for Trump, I won't complain.

Hey, now, it's dirty pool to encourage anyone to vote for an ineligible candidate, even your opponents!

After all, Jesus was only 33 when he died (and rose again, but once you're dead I don't think you're eligible any more: even Byrd had to give up his seat eventually), and he wasn't born in the United States or to parents who are citizens. So, sorry, Son of the Risen Lord, but you may not be elected President of the United States.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


Ye ha David Frum.
posted by vrakatar at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Went on and on at the moderator about being interrupted and having a right to respond and the media deciding who can speak and him not being allowed to answer and not getting a chance to make his statement and being silenced and the government is targeting him.

So basically he's doing exactly what Trump has been doing?

Also, he overpaid his taxes by $6,000.

Ah.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


I know four Trump supporters, none younger than their mid-fifties.

I've actually been very happily surprised quite a few times over the last year when people who I was afraid might be for Trump turned out to be totally the opposite.
posted by octothorpe at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Oh, and here's a link to The Guardian's report where David Duke talking (later in that "debate") about how "there is a problem in America with a very strong, powerful, tribal group that dominates our media and dominates our international banking". In case that was too subtle for the audience, he goes on with "I’m not opposed to all Jews [...]"
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


Well, except for Simon and Garfunkel

Yeah but the guitar riff that plays whenever they show up makes me bark-laugh every single time.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Clinton+ Senate Majority for 2016-2018 means Scalia and RBG seats get replaced which seems like about the limit of what's actually achievable.

RBG isn't going to step down just for Clinton. She's in good shape for her 80s and the Court is her life with her husband gone now. I doubt she's the next to go, my bet would be Kennedy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


My dog has slowly been chewing her Dognald Trump toy to bits. Tonight, before I could grab it from her, she swallowed the last scrap of his face. All that's left of him is his scalp of horrible hair...and one tiny little fist.

Time to put his remnants in our basket of deplorables aka the garbage.
posted by sallybrown at 7:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]


All that's left of him is his scalp of horrible hair...and one tiny little fist.

That sounds like the end of Roald Dahl's version of this year's election.
posted by Joey Michaels at 7:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [52 favorites]


Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory" and for some reason it makes me so happy, so thank you Justinian, this election has been a time of real joy for me.

where is my app to launch this false messiah into the sun
posted by poffin boffin at 7:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


I doubt she's the next to go, my bet would be Kennedy.

That would be great, but I've heard Breyer is pretty sick of it, and ready to go.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:25 PM on November 2, 2016


soren_lorenson! I'm watching Detectorists for the second time, this go-around with my mother. We have just one more episode to go (but season three is in the works, from what I hear) and we will both be sad to see it end. It is the best antidote to the utter bullshit scaring my mom. So, so sweet. Be brave! Trivia isn't necessarily trivial. Friendships are the stuff of a full life. It's about the journey, not the destination. (And don't drink Shelia's lemonade.) This is the sort of show I tell all my friends about, then consider making new ones so I can tell them about it, too.
posted by thebrokedown at 7:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


I finally got around to watching The Prisoner. Last night, I watched the election episode. And suddenly 2016 and Trump and the whole madness make sense. It's all an elaborate con, and we're the unwitting participants. Carefully designed to make Number 6 completely unhinged and finally spill his secrets.
posted by honestcoyote at 7:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


Both Trump and Clinton will be in midtown Manhattan on Tuesday night. That's not going to be a great commute home.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


So will Clinton(who is a big Cubs fan) be willing to wear a Cubs Jersey and risk losing Ohio? I mean it's the Cubs and a possible World Series win.
posted by vuron at 7:27 PM on November 2, 2016


Chobani’s CEO Gets Death Threats for Giving Jobs to Refugees
[Chobani founder and CEO] Ulukaya is a Turkish immigrant of Kurdish descent who came to the US, bought a run-down Kraft yogurt factory in a depressed upstate New York town with a loan from the Small Business Administration, and built a dream. Ten years later, he employs 2,000 people in New York and Idaho, and announced in April that he was going to give 10 percent of the company’s ownership to its employees—an act that made some employees instant millionaires. Chobani pays even low-level employees over minimum wage, and offers full-time employees health benefits, 401(k) plans, and parental leave, even for factory workers. Last year, he signed Warren Buffett’s Giving Pledge, promising to give away a majority of his fortune to charities.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [117 favorites]


I've actually been very happily surprised quite a few times over the last year when people who I was afraid might be for Trump turned out to be totally the opposite.

That's what is keeping me overall optimistic about the outcome of the election. Even my friends or acquaintances who happen to be republican, some incredibly republican and rode the anti-Clinton wave through the 90s and beyond, are all voting for Clinton if they live in swing states or obstaining in blue/red states. All of them are even trying to convince their many more republican acquaintances to come to their senses and are aghast at the ones who haven't come around.
posted by milarepa at 7:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


The one house on my bike commute route (from the far northern bit of Chicago - Edgewater and Rogers Park - into Evanston) with Republican downticket yard signs has conspicuously lacked any presidential signs. Today a Clinton/Kaine sign popped up next to the Kirk one; apparently they're #NeverTrump. (Corb's not alone!) I know I know don't worry about signs too much, and to be fair much of my commute is along multifamily houses and apartment buildings that're less likely to have visible signs on a lawn (or a lawn at all), but for such a solidly Democratic area there've been few signs, and so this one - and the two or three others that've popped up in the last week - have lowered my JCPL-equivalent a bit.

A very worried part of me thinks that some loyal Cubs fan made a truly evil pact with a ghoul in exchange for a title which has been the cause of the crazy year of 2016, which will end with Trump's election and the end of world in a nuclear Armageddon type fashion.

So, I've got no love for the Indians but I hope they win.


I grew up in Cleveland, so I admit to certain unavoidably partisan leanings here, but I was actually debating whether a World Series loss might depress voting turnout in the Democratic stronghold of NE Ohio, handing over the state to Trump. (And whether conversely a victory might help GOTV efforts due to a happier and more optimistic regional mood.)
posted by ubersturm at 7:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Will this really happen? If the GOP was to split in this fashion - into one faction of of what the GOP has historically pretended to be, ie 'real' small government, anti-tax and regulation guys, and then another faction of loose cannon Trumpite racist, sexist assholes - wouldn't that basically assure a Democratic victory in future elections?

Would those smaller parties have any hope of competing against a united Dem party?


The GOP is in a very interesting bind right now. Whether they split in half or not, I think, they won't be winning any more presidential elections; the deplorable wing is driving too many people away, and has been since 2004. But the deplorable wing is winning seats in Congress, and holding state legislatures. And I don't think the deplorables will go dormant again - like I said, they're winning. And they've been growing steadily since 2004.

So the GOP is in more or less the same boat the Democrats were in, in the last third of the 20th century, after LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act and lost the South - they can't wash the stink off. But they can't use the Democrats' plan to regain prominence, because there isn't one. The Dems just flailed and disappointed everyone until demographics caught up with them. (And, more crucially, the Republicans started throwing away Black and Hispanic votes.) Demographics aren't going to go backwards. (But the Dems might start throwing away votes.)

So, the GOP is screwed as a party, but we still have to live with them taking a dump on the House floor live on C-SPAN.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 7:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory" and for some reason it makes me so happy, so thank you Justinian, this election has been a time of real joy for me.

That's where all the Diesel Powered Nuns work.
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 7:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


Finally signed up Mrs photo guy and myself to go canvassing this weekend. I probably should've signed up sooner but had too much else going on - better late than never though I guess.

I know four Trump supporters, none younger than their mid-fifties.

I know two diehard Trump fans, one of whom is a 60-something coworker (did I mention were Feds? Yeah I can't wrap my head around that either). The other is only in his 30s but otherwise seems to fit the stereotype.
posted by photo guy at 7:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Btw for those of you who filled out an online form to volunteer, if you do get contacted it's going to be by phone and they may not leave a message if it's another volunteer making the call. Answer your phone even if it's an unfamiliar or out of state number. They don't do this stuff through email, generally.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


Also lots of volunteer events are listed online. Just pick a time and show up. If you're reasonably willing to do a variety of things they will probably not be annoyed.
posted by R343L at 7:45 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


“They have to come in legally,” Trump said, continuing. “And we’ll have merit involved, too. Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country? Wouldn’t that be nice? Somebody said: 'You can’t say that; that’s not politically correct.' Well, I just said it, folks.”

This is strange, because I have a whole lot of experience with the existing US immigration system and it's merit-based already. Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?
posted by ugly at 7:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


@Evan_McMullin
I would seek to be one of the weakest presidents in modern times, because I want to return more power to the states.

Oh honey.
posted by acidic at 7:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]


Dear Evan McMullin: not that I ever need to care about you for a second in life, but "state's rights" and "more power to the states" only leads to madness and civil wars.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


Lisa Bloom, representing the woman accusing Trump of rape, now says:
Our firm's website was reportedly hacked today, as well as emails. Anonymous claims responsibility.


It was down at least an hour before the scheduled start of the press conference. I tried to look at it and timed out.

Think the FBI is investigating that DDOS attack? BWAHAHAAHAHAAHA
posted by msalt at 7:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


McMuffin does the whole dogwhistle stuff much better. What's sad is talking in code about returning power to the states seems like rational thought in comparison to Trump rhetoric.
posted by vuron at 7:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


So, the Trump "victory party" is invitation-only at the Midtown Hilton, and the Clinton one is "sign up online to learn more" at the Javits Center.

Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

Because the kind of Trump supporters who show up at rallies don't know a fucking thing about the immigration system and think that the US is populated by citizens (first-class: white; second-class: non-white) and illegal immigrants. And because of refugees, who to Trump supporters are human timebombs.

The Trump "merit" system would be "under 25 and at least an 8" for women, and "willing to get stiffed on wages then sent back home" for men. No browns.
posted by holgate at 7:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]


States don't have rights. Only people (and corporations) have rights. States have delegated authority.
posted by teirnon at 7:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]


I grew up in Cleveland, so I admit to certain unavoidably partisan leanings here, but I was actually debating whether a World Series loss might depress voting turnout in the Democratic stronghold of NE Ohio, handing over the state to Trump.

C'mon, it's Cleveland. We're used to losing. Hell, I'd be more concerned about a win - we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves, and turnout would be depressed because everyone would still be drunk.

Also, from my experiences GOTV canvassing, white folks might get all mopey and stay home, black and Latinx folks are pissed. People are itching to give Trump a righteous smackdown at the polls, and the fact that they actually like Hillary is icing on the cupcake.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Talez: The FBI's investigation into the Clinton Foundation that has been going on for more than a year has now taken a "very high priority," separate sources with intimate knowledge of the probe tell Fox News.

The Congressional Republicans are right. This will never literally end.


Obama needs to fire Comey (Nov. 9th if not now) and stick someone trustworthy in the role. They need to purge the FBI of politically motivated elements and restore impartiality, or at least make it blue instead of red. Yeah, it'll look a little corrupt, but much less corrupt than having a hostile FBI director attacking the president for their entire term, and after the election it won't matter for four years (by which time people will have mostly forgotten about it.)
posted by Mitrovarr at 7:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]




This is strange, because I have a whole lot of experience with the existing US immigration system and it's merit-based already. Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

He's said a bunch of things like this before, so it's not that new for him. I think there's a distinction between the employment-based US immigration system, which is sort of merit-based (qualifications-based I guess, it's certainly not a points system like some countries have, which have their own problems) and the family-based system, which is where the majority of immigrants come from. The right-wing talking point I've heard a bunch on this is that we admit too many immigrants because they are family members of US citizens and permanent residents (after endless waiting periods) and not enough based on qualifications and skills.

It's not PC because it knocks family unification and because it doesn't take a lot of imagination to guess what kind of merit-based system Trump would setup.

He also has demonstrated that he has absolutely no clue how the current legal immigration system works, who can and can't come legally and how long they have to wait for things, etc...
posted by zachlipton at 7:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


after the election it won't matter for four years (by which time people will have mostly forgotten about it.

If there's anything this election has made clear, it is that years and decades old events will come back to haunt you, whether they actually occurred or not.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

I hate to break this to you, but Mr. Trump stands in front of thousands of people and describes a reality that simply does not exist.
posted by valkane at 7:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


Dan Ilic of Fusion Media interviews McMuffin, and pitches him some campaign slogans.

Big points in Egg's favor: sense of humor, ability to take a joke.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


One of the guys who plays in my D&D group is a vocal Trump supporter. It's earned him a fairly frosty reception that led to him approaching me last week to ask why some of the group didn't seem to like him. (I am apparantly the nice, approachable one). I pointed out that I am a queer, non-citizen/immigrant jew and the other members of the group were various shades of liberal. Also, my best friend (our barbarian) is protective as fuck and whenever he talked about Trump not meaning all [minority] only the fact she works at the store we play at kept her from yelling. a lot.

This week, he didn't talk politics once. His Facebook hasn't had a horrible Trump meme or statement, either.

It was so beautiful, guys.
posted by Torosaurus at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [103 favorites]


Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory"

Don't tell anyone, but I hear they have some sort of two wheeled, human powered mechanism for Him they are skunkworking.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


Huh, I was sure that Trump would hold his election night rally at Trump Tower, so at the end of the night they could seal it all up like a pharaoh's pyramid.

Plus, it would be one last thing to bill to the campaign.
posted by ckape at 8:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]


States don't have rights. Only people (and corporations) have rights. States have delegated authority.

Well, to modern American conservatives, the Supremacy Clause ranks in priority somewhere between a school board bylaw and a tree fort pinky swear. The fact that the Founders talked about "these United States" a lot is enough to assume that they were just joshin' us with the crazy idea that the federal government should have any power at all.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Jesus was headed out to vote when he ran into the Beatles who scared him off because they are bigger than Jesus.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


This country is not so broken as to allow a President Trump to arrest opponents or silence the media
Frum seems unaware of how the. FBI treated the left & organized labor under Harding's AG, Daugherty. Or maybe that was legitimate law enforcement from a Republican perspective.
posted by Coventry at 8:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


Lawrence O'Donnell highlighted the Republican #NeverTrump movement and is pushing a narrative that the movement might be the only thing standing between us and Trump holding up his right hand in front of the Capitol on January 20th. To explain this, he showed polls where Republicans down tickets are massively outperforming the top of the ticket. I am not sure I buy this narrative, but I appreciate his efforts to applaud reasonable Republicans who have been fighting Trump from the get go.
posted by xyzzy at 8:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]



Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?


I thought this question was rhetorical.
posted by zutalors! at 8:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Clinton is running just running national ads with Trump being an asshole at this point. Doesn't even have to say a word.
posted by vuron at 8:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


David Duke just had a literal meltdown on television. Hopefully he's done.

I eagerly clicked on this link and was HIGHLY disappointed not to see a Wicked Witch-like puddle with a shrill "I'm melllllting!" wail from this walking, talking, pile of excrement...
posted by TwoStride at 8:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]


whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if Trump is elected," I say ...

Canada ain't far enough away. Have you considered New Zealand?
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 8:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


I tried looking into moving to Canada, but Canada doesn't want me.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


They can afford to be picky these days, jenfullmoon -- lots to choose from, you know?
posted by wenestvedt at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Canada ain't far enough away. Have you considered New Zealand?

Neither of which wants you if you or a dependent family member are autistic, BTW.
posted by Lexica at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


Have you considered New Zealand?

Economists warn Trump victory would be 'horrible' for NZ economy
posted by Paragon at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


This was mentioned upthread, but this Awl piece really is the tombstone on all the "Let's try and understand Trump voters" articles.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Dana Milbank: Dear Donald Trump: I want my $49 back
As one of the loudest Trump critics, I thought it would be exquisite to have my name engraved as part of the “select group” on Trump’s wall. I clicked through and authorized the $49 charge to my credit card.

And then, nothing. No acknowledgment. No response. No word about any wall with my name on it. I checked my spam filter: nothing. I checked my Visa statement: The charge had gone through.

Stiffed! And at great personal risk. Post employees aren’t supposed to donate to campaigns, and in 16 years I hadn’t — until the lure of Trump’s wall got me. We don’t want a contribution to create the appearance that we’re in the tank for a candidate, even if, in the case of Trump and me, the probability of creating such an impression is fairly low. My editors gave me the proverbial 40 lashes for my $49.

[Discussion about all the other people Trump has stiffed in his past]

I wrote to Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks on Wednesday and asked whether she could tell me where I could find my name on the Trump Tower donor wall, or refund my $49. She indicated she was looking into it, but nothing happened.

I bet Trump isn’t even building that wall — and I paid for it!
posted by zachlipton at 8:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


FBI More Out of Control Then We Knew

Purge really isn't an inappropriate word here, it's absolutely what must happen, starting with Comey and going, deep, deep into the rank and file. This is a rogue agency trying to usurp control of the country, it's literally the enemy within.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]


Than, TPM. THAN.
posted by dis_integration at 8:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


Josh Marshall is a pretty heavy typo-er.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


I like Josh Marshall but he needs a personal copy editor.
posted by lalex at 8:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


He's no pre-Vox-actually-has-a-copy-editor Matt Yglesias, tho.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'll be working the polls again here in $STATE, so I'm pretty up-to-date on the procedures and requirements around registering and voting here. Out of curiosity, I clicked on the 'How to vote in every state' link for my state.

Wow! The video was very thorough and very detailed, and correct in every regard. What an incredible resource for people!

I can't imagine the amount of work that was required to nail all of that down for all 50 states.
posted by teatime at 8:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Guys, the cancelled Jane Doe press conference was a few miles from where I live. If there's another one would it be worth it for me to liveblog it to y'all?
posted by moonlight on vermont at 8:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]


Yes!
posted by wenestvedt at 8:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


He's no pre-Vox-actually-has-a-copy-editor Matt Yglesias, tho.

Does anyone listen to the Weeds podcast? Yglesias is one of the biggest male uptalkers I've ever heard. I have nothing against uptalkers of any gender, but I swear I walk around uptalking for five straight hours after a Weeds episode.
posted by zutalors! at 8:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Yes please.
posted by Rykey at 8:35 PM on November 2, 2016


I -- just read that whole comment in uptalk. *shakes head vigorously*
posted by maudlin at 8:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


I liked this blog post: And Crown thy Good with Sisterhood:
This past weekend, I watched my oldest daughter create picture after picture after picture of a gracefully aging woman wearing pants next to the words GIRL POWER and thought back to when I was her age and what GIRL POWER looked like to me -- Pink Power Rangers and She-Ra and Catwoman -- women who were literally warriors... who hid behind costumes and masks in order to fight back. In those days, GIRL POWER felt like a costume girls wore on Halloween -- a store-bought cape in pink instead of blue -- a cartoon. …

This is not an election about right vs left or woman vs man or even right vs wrong. This election is about our children's future vs our parents' past. This is an election where we get to choose between exclusion and inclusion, walls and windows, breaking barriers or condemning progress. And we cannot, as a nation, as a people choose NOT to grow up.
posted by Lexica at 8:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [60 favorites]


So let me see if I have this right. A Republican operative writes a book attacking the Clintons. It's published by Breitbart, led by the guy who would become Trump's campaign manager. Somebody gives that book to the FBI, who starts an investigation, interviewing the author repeatedly. Eventually, they present their evidence and both career FBI leadership and career public integrity prosecutors conclude there's not enough to it and the FBI agents are ordered to do something else with their time, but they get mad and keep investigating anyway? Then everybody involved leaks like crazy to the WSJ.

This seems like an accusation-laundering factory capable of ruining anybody's life. And I think it's clear that Comey needs to go not because of the letter, but because he simply doesn't have the slightest bit of control over his agency and his staff is spending more time leaking than fighting crime.
posted by zachlipton at 8:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [72 favorites]




Obama will almost certainly pressure Comey to fall on his sword after the election. He definitely can't allow him to stay around and it's clear that Comey has lost control over the agency or he's a partisan hack. Neither is remotely acceptable.
posted by vuron at 8:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Rasmussen still has Cubs up 7-5!
--@MattNegrin
posted by zachlipton at 8:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


Jesus, reading that TPM article makes me wonder if anyone hires copy editors anymore. But the civil war he's describing there is the conclusion MeFites arrived at on Friday or Saturday, right? I'm pretty sure I posted something that called for a workplace culture investigation on the level of the one they did at NASA after the Challenger explosion. Something very, very sick is happening there if rogue agents are allowed to just do whatever the hell they want without repercussions.

The Brennan Center for Justice made a compelling case back in 2014 not just for fixing the FBI but also ticking off the reasons it should be fixed. Note that the case was written by a former FBI agent.

Some interesting tidbits:
Comey’s new fear-mongering is part of his continuing effort to transform the FBI into a full-fledged domestic intelligence agency. For anyone concerned about unchecked government power, this is a bad idea. And for anyone only concerned with effective security, it is even worse... An FBI agent merely asking questions about a political candidate, a religious leader, or a community activist can start rumors that destroy reputations and alter destinies, without ever leveling charges that could be defended.
posted by xyzzy at 8:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]


A rain delay as a tied World Series moves into extra innings with a dark storm visible on radar. A metaphor? 2016 is the worst.
posted by zachlipton at 8:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [34 favorites]


2016: everything is trolling and everything is a metaphor of everything else, including the trolling.
posted by holgate at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


Oh Cleveland zeroed in the 9th? Hooray!
posted by Oyéah at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2016


A rain delay as a tied World Series moves into extra innings with a dark storm visible on radar. A metaphor? 2016 is the worst.

TTTCS!

I'm not going through another hanging chad nightmare. There are no 10th innings or rain delays for this election. It ends in 6 days or I do.
posted by dis_integration at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]


Oh Cleveland zeroed in the 9th? Hooray!

The 8th
posted by NoMich at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2016


Anybody else kind of wish they could just sleep until Tuesday?
posted by Justinian at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


Anybody else kind of wish they could just sleep until Tuesday?

Yes.
posted by restless_nomad at 8:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [40 favorites]


No. We've got calls to make and doors to knock on.
posted by zachlipton at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]


Anybody else kind of wish they could just sleep until Tuesday?

Wednesday for me.
posted by Jalliah at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Holy shit. Delay of game in the World Series?!?! In the 9th, at 6-6!?!
I'm not blaming the writers. I'm blaming them who hired 'em.

(NE OH Native who doesn't care about about sports because he grew up in NE OH and cares a whole lot about the world we live in because see above

This fuckin year, man...)
posted by rp at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


This game is the perfect metaphor for the election. Blue team winning, red team pretty racist if you look at it close but somehow caught up at the end, and now it's delayed at the very end so you're pretty sure it's never going to result in a fucking winner already.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]


Blue team winning, red team pretty racist if you look at it close but somehow caught up at the end

Except the Blue team owned by a Trump-supporting asshat. Just sayin.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


Public service announcement: baseball games and Presidential elections are independent events.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [48 favorites]


But so many people try to prove otherwise! It must be true!
(finally going to finish Luke Cage now)
posted by rp at 9:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Public service announcement: baseball games and Presidential elections are independent events.

It's been a slow oppo night
posted by OHenryPacey at 9:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think WS games are correlated with Hollandaise sauce, though.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


Than, TPM. THAN.
For a site that produces relatively little original content and seems to have little inside sourcing due perhaps to its youthful reportorial staff, it really is remarkably shabbily edited. Not just typos, either.

Marshall himself is a smart analyst. But he doesn't have the resources to compete as a breaking news site and the strain shows.
posted by spitbull at 9:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


tonycpsu: You can have my magical thinking when you peel it out of my cold, dead brain.
posted by Coventry at 9:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Public service announcement: baseball games and Presidential elections are independent events.

If this election was a baseball game, the concession stands would have stopped serving alcohol two months ago.
posted by peeedro at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


So, is the FBI now basically acting as a promotional arm for a bullshit book by that Breitbart staffer now working for Trump?
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]


I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt.

Can we buy them for all the mods?
posted by zachlipton at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


Hey how fun would it be to tie the world series to the election?? If Cubs win then Hillary wins and if Cleveland wins then the other guy wins. My reasoning is only based on Hillary being a Cubs fan and the other team has a racist name just like the other guy is a racist.

This delay of game means the election gets dragged out past Thursday.
posted by numaner at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Reporting from Chicago. The tension and anxiety in this game may be one of the few things I've experienced in months that matches the stress of this god damn election.

Which is probably the sign of a fortunate life. I'll take it.
posted by jammer at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


What are the odds the game will still be going by Nov. 8? Nate Silver has it at 12%.
posted by Behemoth at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Hey how fun would it be to tie the world series to the election?? If Cubs win then Hillary wins and if Cleveland wins then the other guy wins.

It's bad enough they tie home field advantage to the All-Star game.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:16 PM on November 2, 2016


And these freaking uniforms! People - white at home, gray on the road.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


@kenrudin: In the last 8 times a World Series went to a Game 7 in a prez year, when the AL team wins, WH goes GOP; when the NL team wins, Dems do too.
posted by anastasiav at 9:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]


Now there's a meaningful stat for you.
posted by dersins at 9:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


GOP and designated hitter, smite them both!
posted by mahorn at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


So... go cubs?
posted by localhuman at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


I want more than Comey falling on his sword. It's very clear, to me at least, that shoving the ostensible leader of a sick organization off the lifeboat won't address the hungry cannibals left behind. I did have great difficulty reconciling the nature of a dude who would defend an ailing AG from Bush vultures and threaten to resign over unconstitutional expansions to intelligence powers with the guy who becomes Chaffetz's lapdog, but I think I get him, now. Comey is the type of guy who is a sponge for whatever organization he works for. He always wants to be the penultimate symbol of his institution. That he is going rogue and aggressively shoving back at the DOJ is quintessential FBI. In the last thread, someone pushed back at me for defining Comey as a rules lawyer, and rightfully so. He's not. He's just believes his own press.
posted by xyzzy at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


To be entirely fair, it's Cleveland baseball - the entire city is used to performative despair. They wouldn't know what to do if they win.

(my parents, who are staunch Dems who have been volunteering in WI, have gone completely radio silent and this was after all I got were responses of emoji in tears when I texted them when CLE was down 3. Right now I'm just hoping they're still alive.)
posted by ultranos at 9:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


The timing of that Hilary ad on the World Series was kinda perfect. Commercial in the top of the 10th, Cubs up 8-6. And the "Just One Wrong Move" commercial played to a big chunk of the electorate.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 9:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Why they're pushing out polls this late I have no idea but a new poll out of the University of Denver from a couple hours ago has the race tied in Colorado with third party candidates taking 15% of the vote (Clinton leads +1 in the two way). Its a live caller poll to both landlines and cellphones.
posted by Justinian at 9:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


The timing of that Hilary ad on the World Series was kinda perfect.

I saw! It was like the first time I saw one of her ads on TV after recently seeing it on Twitter! It's a sign! (TTTCS)
posted by numaner at 9:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


This freaking game. Stop playing with my emotions.
posted by vuron at 9:45 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Yesh and the world series too.
posted by Joey Michaels at 9:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]


approximately 90% of the people on my fb feed are complaining of breathing problems and/or possible TIAs. it's exactly like the election thread when a weird PA poll comes out
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


OK and there go the fireworks. I'm officially declaring this a good omen for the Dems.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Nice win by the Cubs. Apart from the players and their families, the team owners, and scads of gamblers, it doesn't matter at all who won. Unlike this election...
posted by morspin at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2016


"fuck fuck oh fuck we did it oh fuck" if you're listening to the international feed without Joe Buck, like I am.

so.
posted by holgate at 9:50 PM on November 2, 2016


HILLARY! GO CUBS!
posted by numaner at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


The Good Folks at JCPL worked overtime to let those fireworks rip.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


The probability of two events each with roughly a 15% chance of happening happening together is only 2.25%.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


Skipping ahead a bit to post this so sorry if this has been mentioned already.

YCTAB, my twitter feed is mostly gamedevs/progs cause that's my job and that's why I'm there. Followed notch for a while, it became quite clear around the GG era that he's a sexist d***k , and I'm not surprised at all (although I didn't knew since I don't follow him anymore).

+ Cubs win World Series! Not sure if we have to be afraid, BTTF 2 was only wrong by one year it would seem. I'd do THE toast, but I feel it's not really proper.
posted by coust at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


Kris Bryant: "This Trumps everything."
posted by dirigibleman at 9:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


I really don't need Tuesday night to be as close as this. Really.
posted by maudlin at 9:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


Kris Bryant: "This Trumps everything."

I heard it, and immediately shivered. That word really has been ruined.
posted by numaner at 9:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


Cubs pretty much stole all the long shot mojo for the remainder of this year. Trump should go ahead and concede tonight because no way is he replicating the Cubs.
posted by vuron at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


You could seeee how the Indians got so close... plate discipline. Terry Francona drilled that into the Sawx during their dominant run, and got the heavy hitters to really buy into it.

In the end, the team with the most talent won, and I like Theo as much as I like Terry. Awesome.
posted by Slap*Happy at 9:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


So at what point after the polls show that we have legalized mj would we be able to take advantage. Because I fully expect that to be confirmed at like noon at the latest, and it would come in somewhat handy for the rest of the day.
posted by susiswimmer at 10:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


*we* in this case being California.
posted by susiswimmer at 10:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Foer from Slate published something of a rebuttal piece on the Trump server that addresses some of the analyses posted on Twitter, the Intercept, and the New York Times. It's pretty even-handed but he stands by his reporting and says that all of the experts that he could reach who consulted on the original piece stood by their analyses.

Also, I hate baseball.
posted by xyzzy at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


The Cubs haven't won the championship since before women got the right to vote. I know this is highly uncorrelated, but it's like that 102 y/o lady voting for Hillary. I just feel like it means something.
posted by numaner at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]


I'm not a sports guy, but I want to believe that teams with fucking racist names will be cursed until they change them.

My father, for as much of a super-progressive guy he is, still is a fan of The Washington Football Team to this day. He readily acknowledges the horrible name and mascot has to go, and even that football itself is a brutal game, and he doesn't argue that commercial sports in this country are out of control. He doesn't really argue my Chomsky-esque view that it's all bread-and-circuses, though I suspect he thinks I should lighten up. But he's kind enough not to tell me that. (He's still an old gentle hippie at heart.) It's through him that I've come to understand that that particular team in general doesn't really do well.

I understand Cleveland's baseball team doesn't have much of a history of doing really well, and that making it to the World Series is kind of a historical fluke. It sounds like they just lost. Aww, what a shame.

So I guess my theory/hope continues to stand. You keep being racist, you keep losing. Fuckheads.
posted by CommonSense at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]


California has like a dozen dumb and contradictory propositions on the ballot to have to wade through. Unfortunately they won't be able to call the pot proposition at 4:20.
posted by vuron at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]






Clark County is in Nevada
posted by hleehowon at 10:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


p sure there is a fanfare post for the ball game guys
posted by poffin boffin at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]


@kylegriffin1: Clinton watching the Cubs win
posted by airish at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


Well hopefully Hillary ends the 44-0 win streak for men in a little less than a week. Or should I do that as 43-1-0?
posted by vuron at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


Errr, well where ever it is. The tweet sounded good.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:16 PM on November 2, 2016




It's now very clear (when you combine these two reports with the conflicting stories I outlined yesterday) that lower-level agents in the NY FBI office(s) are warring with their higher-ups and Justice Department folks over trying to take down Clinton. No one in the legal community in their right mind is going to green-light a criminal investigation involving publicly discernible steps like subpoenas over a fucking STEVE BANNON book on Clinton right before the election. No solid investigation involves agents going back to the well multiple times to interview the same people (which means they have nothing) and continuing to butt up against, defy, and leak against their higher command. Not that it wasn't already, but it's clear from this and the Eric Garner case that there's a major culture issue in the NY office and a complete grudgefest between the agents on the ground there and everyone else they interact with.

My suspicion is this explains the lack of progress on Trump/Russia ties and the conflicting leaks about that investigation to the NYT. Like usual, the prospect of a woman gaining power has reduced the supposed "tough guys" to whiny babies, and now they're sulking because they didn't get to take down Clinton like they thought they would.

Comey should be out now, along with anyone at the FBI who leaked confidential information to the press about investigations.
posted by sallybrown at 10:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [47 favorites]


The MVP prize was handed out by Chevrolet, a company that didn't exist in 1908, like votes for women.
posted by holgate at 10:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


And that picture also fits the tips we heard late last week that Comey went public with the Weiner emails because of threats from the NY FBI agents that they would leak the info if he didn't.

It also explains why the warrant wasn't in hand for those emails - my guess is those in charge refused to take that step until their hands were forced by Comey's letter.
posted by sallybrown at 10:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]


The problem is that the FBI just acted like a shit accelerator. Accusations from the alt-right/vast right-wing conspiracy come in at one end, none of the usual steps that would happen in a meaningful successful investigation (subpoenas, interviews of all the relevant witnesses, grand jury, approval by prosecutors at key steps in the process, indictment), it gets leaked to the press, and it all comes out at hurtling speed in Trump's own TV ad (paid for by the RNC, naturally) as "now the FBI has launched a new investigation."

Meanwhile, if we're leaking investigations all over the place, where's the investigation into the Pam Bondi donation?
posted by zachlipton at 10:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]


Hey guys with the University of Denver poll and recent good early voting numbers out of Nevada I made a very plausible map for you that will help you sleep tonight. Sweet dreams!
posted by Justinian at 10:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]


And because this leaking is not just continuing but becoming more specific and more anti-Clinton (wonder if the leakers are emboldened by the fact that no one is getting in trouble??), I don't think this will be the end of it. You can already see in that Fox piece that a source blatantly lied about the Clinton investigation as if it's legitimate and on the path somewhere quick, when it's very obvious from the other reports that it's going nowhere.
posted by sallybrown at 10:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


NC is starting to look like Virginia in terms of Clinton building up a solid EV and polling lead.

Florida EV is looking very very favorable for Hillary as well. I'd like her to win Ohio and Iowa but the ubearable whiteness of being in both those states appears to be giving her issues. I really don't have much concerns about Colorado either tbh.
posted by vuron at 10:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Nate Silver is kind of losing his mind right now, but I enjoyed this salty prediction-rivalry tweet: Cleveland's still a 99% favorite in the Princeton Baseball Consortium model.

Think he's feeling a little burnt by the (DESERVED) PEC/Sam Wang love this year?
posted by sallybrown at 10:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]


Justinian: tonight you are not allowed to Justinian.

sallybrown: seriously, reassign those fucking FBI agents to filing duty. Or toilet-cleaning.

The weirdness is that in the best timeline you're going to have a not-quite-Trumpist congressional GOP that is being led by the nose by an actually-Trumpist FBI and an actually-Trumpist slavering base. And the worst outcome of that best timeline is that the US becomes something like Turkey.
posted by holgate at 10:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I made a very plausible map for you that will help you sleep tonight.

A good use of your time. Can you go to bed already?
posted by Atom Eyes at 10:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


Just think: The last time the Cubs won, 108 years ago, America hadn't even elected a woman for President yet.
posted by ckape at 10:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]


Nate made the mistake of trying to be a pundit instead of a polls analysis guy and 538 built a very swingy model.

The fact that Trump basically needs to run the table on the states that are considered toss-ups currently and also steal one or more states where Clinton's current polling lead is pretty substantial make for a very very predictable (and boring) narrative.

Short of a total black swan event it's not really likely that there will be much movement in the polls either way so the high variance that we are seeing in the 538 polling aggregator methodology is starting to seem like a bit of an outlier. I figure by Saturday or Sunday he'll adjust the model they are using will move more and more into alignment with the other aggregators. He might still hedge his beats some but at a certain point variance from polling averages is going to get harder and harder to justify.
posted by vuron at 10:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]


[Ugly, you need to stop coming in here to drop vague insinuations, period.]
posted by restless_nomad at 10:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]


Ugly: Not believable at this time. Amidst the other leaks so far, there's approximately nothing. If anyone has such evidence, they've only got days to put up or shut up.

Tick, tock.
posted by Enturbulated at 10:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


Given how much has already leaked out of the FBI, if the FBI had any real honest-to-god, y'know, evidence of malfeasance, why wouldn't they have leaked that instead of a plate of nothing burgers?
posted by fragmede at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]


now it's delayed at the very end so you're pretty sure it's never going to result in a fucking winner already

Since Election Day is the Tuesday following the first Monday in November it's later than usual this year because the month started on November 1.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2016


There is publicly available evidence that definitely disqualifies Trump from the role of President - but no rumors of him being investigated. So either he's not being investigated, or he is being investigated but the FBI are being fucking professionals about it like they should be.

I'd assume it was Clinton Derangement Syndrome, not misogyny, but Idunno if that's worth makin a distinction.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 11:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]



W the hell!! Biden is on SVU talking about rape.
( Just turned on the recording.)


How did I miss that he was doing this? Did I miss this info in a thread? I swear I've read every post!
posted by Jalliah at 11:03 PM on November 2, 2016


Since these threads started thay'e been making me feel angry and bitter, not because of the state of American politics but because I do not live in New York and cannot go see Hamilton. On reading this thread's wiki (!) I discovered that

HAMILTON IS ON YOUTUBE!

So if you, like me, forgot that soundtracks are a thing that exists, get ye to your browser and restore some sanity. It lives up to the hype.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]



Oh wait. My bad this is really old. I just confused myself. I thought it was new. Sorry all. *stubs toe sheepishly*
posted by Jalliah at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


I have no doubt that there are people in the FBI who believe they have evidence that disqualifies Clinton for the job. There's a reasonable chance there are people in the FBI who believe they have evidence that disqualifies Trump for the job too.

The problem is that law enforcement is not supposed to be influencing elections by leaking accusations to the press. They're supposed to build cases with evidence and bring them through the justice system. And if they can't do that, they're supposed to shut the hell up. Because to act in any other way is to have an extrajudicial government operation that thinks it knows better than anyone else. We had that already, it was called the FBI under J. Edgar Hoover, and it was widely considered a model for what we're looking to avoid in a law enforcement agency.

If FBI agents had a good-faith basis to believe they had a strong legitimate accusation blocked for political purposes, surely there should be some indication that they went to the IG to report that interference? Or to Congress, where there's no shortage of Republicans who would be happy to hold hearings on both the original case and the alleged cover-up? Or they could put up and actually tell someone what evidence they have? But they didn't do any of those things. They made vague anonymous accusations to the press less than a week before the election.
posted by zachlipton at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [50 favorites]


Lol, Biden's guest appearance on SVU was a few weeks ago, so it must be a repeat.
posted by xyzzy at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I figure by Saturday or Sunday he'll adjust the model they are using will move more and more into alignment with the other aggregators.

I would actually be truly shocked if Silver did this; it would essentially destroy his reputation. (I realize his rep is pretty tarnished ((hah hah get it tarnish? silver?)) hereabout but the media still eats him up) I expect he'll ride his model all the way through the election. Any adjustments will come after the 8th.
posted by Justinian at 11:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


... it's later than usual this year because the month started on November 1.

I do believe that is the case most years.
posted by Bovine Love at 11:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [70 favorites]


Yes, my birthday is Nov 1, and it has started the month for my whole life. I am, however, willing to concede that perhaps it was different before my time.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]


it's later than usual this year because November 1 was a Tuesday

FIXED
THAT
FOR
EVERYBODY
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]


Well, the PEC is currently reporting Clinton's win probability as "random drift 98%, Bayesian 100%". Whew! Glad that's over.
posted by The Tensor at 11:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]


If FBI agents had a good-faith basis to believe they had a strong legitimate accusation blocked for political purposes, surely there should be some indication that they went to the IG to report that interference?
Just in case others aren't aware, I believe zachlipton is referring to the Inspector General of the DOJ, which is something like Internal Affairs.
posted by xyzzy at 11:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


the R party was taken over by a total crank

In 1980? That was really the beginning.


I'd point more to the Southern Strategy, which I think helped incentivize the stupidity, but you're not wrong. Here in Aus we've concluded that Reagan is perhaps best described by our favourite national 4-letter word.
posted by iffthen at 11:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]


OK, so the only problem with watching sports on Tivo is the risk that the game runs too long even if you add an hour. And then you miss the end of Game 7 of the World Series.

But what a great game! Props to the Indians for not folding when they were down 5-1 and props to the Cubs for not folding when they blew their lead. I love this type of baseball game: lots of scoring, aggressive base running, plays at the plate.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]




Short of a total black swan event
Things that only happen every 108 years?

I'm a bad person
posted by fullerine at 11:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


RT reports Assange clearing Russia; what could go wrong? Just like how Nixon told us he wasn't a crook.
posted by zachlipton at 11:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]


Guys, this is huge!
@RT_com: BREAKING: Russian govt is not the source for #WikiLeaks' #Clinton emails - RT's exclusive interview with #Assange


lol. I wonder who he implies did it.
posted by Jalliah at 11:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]


I just took this screenshot at the bottom of the RT article. What a great comment section they run.
posted by zachlipton at 11:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]



Oh wait. I think I get it. Let me guess. People are going to imply that is was US intelligence leaking the emails right?
posted by Jalliah at 11:30 PM on November 2, 2016


RT reports Assange clearing Russia;

They're playing to the choir. It's enough for Limbaugh/Hannity to rant about for a few hours. It's yet more supporting evidence of their cognitive framing, "Hillary Clinton is The Devil"
posted by mikelieman at 11:32 PM on November 2, 2016


They're playing to the choir. It's enough for Limbaugh/Hannity to rant about for a few hours. It's yet more supporting evidence of their cognitive framing, "Hillary Clinton is The Devil"

Well putting on my Putin hat and pretending I was him: Since it looks like there is disarry in the FBI with rogue group leaking and the narrative that some are trying to push that they know how bad Hillary really is and are trying to save the country, I would add fuel to the fire. I would suggest that it was rogue intelligence who have the good of the country in mind who hacked the emails and leaked them. And of course Clinton (and the dems) is covering it up by blaming the Russia and Trump. It's all part of her evil plan etc etc.

He is doing what he can to help Trump.
posted by Jalliah at 11:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]


[Several deleted. As always, questions/discussion of moderation belong in the contact form or Metatalk.]
posted by LobsterMitten at 11:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]



But then who knows, it's 2016, Assange could just come right out of left field and blame China.
posted by Jalliah at 11:38 PM on November 2, 2016


An in-depth investigation by Russia has cleared Russia of any wrongdoing!
posted by Justinian at 11:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]


latex: thanks for that link.
posted by StrawberryPie at 11:44 PM on November 2, 2016


Case closed, then. Assange never lies. He certainly never lied about a Clinton strategist calling for his assassination on Fox News. (It wasn't a Clinton strategist.) He definitely didn't accuse Bill Maher of making a $1 million HRC PAC donation after "checking his files." (Maher donated that amount to Obama's SuperPAC and got in trouble with the FEC for giving too much money to Bernie Sanders.) He never stated that all credit card numbers and other personal data are redacted prior to leaks. (They aren't.) And we should definitely believe him when he says that he has no problem with Hillary Clinton and that all of his statements about Hillary being a demon ready to put a noose around our necks are misquotes or misunderstandings. (They aren't.)
posted by xyzzy at 12:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


so uh last thread I was all "I see no reason for anyone to vote for Evan McMullin," but okay I was dumb there is a reason to vote for Evan McMullin: Justinian's map.

Egg's got a shitty platform, but his goofy reason for running actually is pretty sound: a 269 Clinton 269 Trump result is strictly worse than a 269 Trump 263 Clinton 6 McMullin result. There's a chance that the House might put McMullin in by virtue of being neither Clinton nor Trump, but if they had to choose between just Clinton-Trump the Republicans would put Trump in without hesitation.

Let it be known: if I lived in Utah, and if the polls got tighter, this commie would vote for an independent republican.

Dang though, I bet Romney would be pissed if it turned out McMullin was the White Horse. All "Egg?! The prophecy was about EGG?!?"
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


So if you, like me, forgot that soundtracks are a thing that exists, get ye to your browser and restore some sanity. It lives up to the hype.

I used to think that I was cool because my wife got us tickets to see hamilton with the original cast, but then my step-sister started liveblogging the game from Wrigley Field tonight. This election season has been fraught.

posted by stet at 12:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


ugh I'm dumb. Justinian's map isn't the one where Egg makes sense: we'd need a map that was 275 Trump 263 Clinton. In that case, Utah voting for Egg instead of Clinton would be good.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]




it's just going to be tearing garments and ululating at the sky from now until November 9th, isn't it.
posted by angrycat at 12:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


a 269 Clinton 269 Trump result

The fact that the presidency could conceivably be decided by Congress voting, one vote per state is just like, what the actual fuck on so many levels. What would even happen? How many reps would go for Trump vs. McMuffin? Could Democrats stall and obstruct and run out the clock until January, at which point Kaine would become President by default? I have so many questions.
posted by en forme de poire at 12:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I don't think there's a way for the Democrats to stall for Kaine, but IIUC, the new, incoming House is the one that votes, which means those down-ballot races are more important than ever if we see a 269 v. 269 EV result.
posted by fragmede at 1:03 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


I don't know who would care enough to early vote for Clinton and also be so upset by the Comey letter that they would want to switch to Trump.

I keep wondering if there's some nugget of brilliance there. Like, maybe Trump wants to gum up the works on election day? But pre-poll voting favours Clinton, so he's basically sabotaging his own voters in order to gain a speculative advantage from vote-switchers. Argh, he's inside my head now.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


> I don't think there's a way for the Democrats to stall for Kaine, but IIUC, the new, incoming House is the one that votes, which means those down-ballot races are more important than ever if we see a 269 v. 269 EV result.
posted by fragmede at 1:03 AM on November 3 [+] [!]


BUT they vote as state delegations, and I believe the Republicans have a lock on having a majority of the house delegations from a greater total number of states than the Democrats will.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Remember Trump's Razor.

The reason he's suggesting changing votes is not to gum up the works or anything considered, it's some dumb shit he made up off the cuff. Or, taking it more literally, he accidentally voted for Hillary.
posted by Trifling at 1:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [53 favorites]


While watching Game 7 I skimmed through the Something Awful gameday thread every couple innings (all the same jokes as Twitter in a format I'm not too dumb to follow) and within the hundreds of "holy shit" and "lmao" posts I saw a response to this ad that made me laugh:
"Wow a woman came from nothing to make 100's of millions of dollars by screwing over dictators criminals and country's that don't like us? Sign me the fuck up"
posted by edeezy at 1:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]


Youtube's suggested video in the sidebar to reach out to people that liked the ad.
posted by sebastienbailard at 1:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


So, it's 2am and I'm still awake reading another election thread even though I have to be up in a few hours to go back to work, where I am largely surrounded by Trump supporters, uninformed loud mouths, and apathetic non-voters. I'm just so tired- tired of biting my tongue, of trying to have calm rational discussions that end with people yelling at me and calling me names, of outwardly ignoring comments while screaming on the inside.

These threads, and the members of this community, have been such a wonderful resource for me. Even when we are discussing terrible things, or the polls are down, or the JCPL is high...we are in it together and that means the world to me. I've learned more from these threads, the intelligent coversation, the spirited debates, the links to hilarity and horror, than I have from any other single source.

So thank you. Thank you, mods, for keeping us in line. Thank you to those who have been on the ground canvassing or making calls, for making a real difference. And thank you to everyone who has participated, even the lurkers, for making me feel surrounded by support and strength. This is a remarkable place, ya' know?
posted by pupperduck at 2:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [105 favorites]


Youtube's suggested video yt in the sidebar to reach out to people that liked the ad.

the mud represents the election and the twink represents america
posted by en forme de poire at 2:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


(P.S. I've seen just about everything else in an election thread so niche softcore shouldn't have really surprised me, but for people who are reading this at work tomorrow, that vid is NSFW)
posted by en forme de poire at 2:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I... assumed something was going to happen in the video. Like... an alligator would show up or...? But no it was just him and the mud. So much... him.
posted by Justinian at 3:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I confess to skimming a bit, and did not think to check for a "I'm Donald Trump, and I approve this message" bit at the end.
posted by sebastienbailard at 3:30 AM on November 3, 2016


This may be silliness but I have got to say, with the amount of Trump support I'm seeing here I would not be shocked if Connecticut goes red. I shouldn't say just because Trump support but also because of the number of people I meet that also keep saying "we're gonna be blue so it doesn't matter" and/or "I don't like Clinton so I'm gonna vote 3rd party". I know what the polls say but I just can't shake the horrible feeling, especially with the anti-dem push because our governor has such a bad reputation (I'm not happy with him either).
posted by JakeEXTREME at 4:04 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


he accidentally voted for Hillary

haha! unfortunately NY doesn't have early voting because that would be awesome.
posted by zutalors! at 4:22 AM on November 3, 2016


he accidentally voted for Hillary

Hoho, or someone in his family claimed they did.

Another thing that kept going round in my head after this particular twist of him suggesting changing votes was, how does the Donald have any experience with buyer's remorse? I wouldn't have expected him to know what that is.
posted by Namlit at 4:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


buyer's remorse?

I felt like he thought his crowd wouldn't understand that term and he had to define it for them.
posted by zutalors! at 4:30 AM on November 3, 2016


Connecticut?
posted by spitbull at 4:31 AM on November 3, 2016


It's too early to Connectthedots. It ain't Connecticut-and-dried yet.
posted by Namlit at 4:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I dunno anecdotal evidence doesn't mean much. I know people in the primary who were sure Bernie would win NY and CA in a landslide because everyone they knew was for Bernie and they saw Bernie signs everywhere.
posted by zutalors! at 4:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

Something about no publicity being bad publicity?
posted by pracowity at 4:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Just a little bit of new political chaos from the UK - a court has just ruled that the Government can't trigger Brexit without getting the approval of Parliament, because of deep constitutional issues over sovereignty and the right of the Government to revoke laws without Parliament (It can't but Brexit would). This now goes to our own Supreme Court which has eleven on the bench and is basically non-partisan, but the legal arguments from the lower court seem pretty cut and dried to me.

Parliament is strongly non-Brexit, and the referendum is non-binding on it. My money, if the UK Supreme Court concurs with this judgement, would be on a spring election that re-ran the Brexit issue.

Which would be its own special brand of insane. So, if Mr Trump brings back his Mr Brexit line, remind everyone about the batshit madness that comes with.
posted by Devonian at 4:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [60 favorites]



(P.S. I've seen just about everything else in an election thread so niche softcore shouldn't have really surprised me, but for people who are reading this at work tomorrow, that vid is NSFW)


Only watched it for a few seconds, but I told myself that it represented Milo Y. being swallowed by quicksand, and found it oddly satisfying in that interpretation.
posted by Halloween Jack at 4:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


Random request: I seem to recall in one of the election threads link to a story or research showing that when Democrats win with larger margins, they govern more from the left than the center. It seems like an obvious statement but it's still something I'd like to be able to back up with a friend in a non-swing state who is skeptical about voting for Clinton. Does anyone know where the story or research lives?
posted by mostly vowels at 4:58 AM on November 3, 2016


guys

the polls

seriously my normally cautious optimism is being replaced with near panic

help
posted by kyrademon at 5:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Look at the HuffPo Pollster and ignore the rest. See that nice big healthy Clinton lead? Concentrate on that, and breathe.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:02 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Only watched it for a few seconds, but I told myself that it represented Milo Y. being swallowed by quicksand, and found it oddly satisfying in that interpretation.

I figured it was broadly targeting the coveted {twink, Trump, mining-and-resource-extraction} advertising markets. My wife found the jerky handycam stuff at the beginning quite off-putting.
posted by sebastienbailard at 5:07 AM on November 3, 2016


So I'm a Canadian who will be staying in the States on business during the election:

AMERICANS, WHAT DO I DO?! I'M SO EXCITED I'M VIBRATING!
posted by Dressed to Kill at 5:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]




I do not live in New York and cannot go see Hamilton.

I made a pilgrimage back to the homeland to see LMM during the last week of his run, a birthday surprise for my best girl and all... but, yeah. Worth it. Very worth it.

The last time a play made me say "wow" when the lights came up was... heck, maybe JCM's original Hedwig?
posted by rokusan at 5:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


So at what point after the polls show that we have legalized mj would we be able to take advantage.

If it's like the other states that have already legalized, maybe a year or so while they get the legal/govt/licensing apparatus in place, and a few months of hiccups thereafter.

Not the answer you wanted, I am sure. Wheels turn slowly.
posted by rokusan at 5:25 AM on November 3, 2016


Watching Kellyanne Conway on CNN I gotta admire her sheer ability to gaslight the nation.

I otherwise completely despite her.

Also, why didn't Caroline Fayard just turn to David Duke and say "what the hell is wrong with you?"
posted by Talez at 5:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


the polls

seriously my normally cautious optimism is being replaced with near panic
If a source of information can't help you make better decisions and frequently causes you distress, it might make sense to put it aside for a while.
posted by Coventry at 5:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


AMERICANS, WHAT DO I DO?!

Culturally, the answer to this depends so very much on where you're going that it's dawning on me that you can't really speak of the US as a single place in any meaningful sense.

If you want to celebrate the election itself, find the local Democratic Party's location for their watch party, and go hang. If you're single, the sheer explosion resulting from a Clinton victory pretty much guarantees that at least 75% of the people in that room are going to have sex with each other, so you get two good memories out of one night.

Otherwise most of my answers will revolve around food. Don't get barbecue in any state where there aren't any waitresses who might call you "hon".
posted by middleclasstool at 5:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]


Oh god, Clinton is still better but I am Very Irritated at her campaign trying to turn up the panic. I just got pushed an ad saying "Trump has 259 EVs per polls", and I'm like, no, that is bullshit, I follow this closer than most and literally no one has him at a 259 EV output, stop panicking me to get money Clinton campaign.
posted by corb at 5:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


Some fresh bullshit from your trusty FBI: Bret Baier: FBI Sources Believe Clinton Foundation Case Moving Towards "Likely an Indictment" claims that:
1. The Clinton Foundation investigation is far more expansive than anybody has reported so far and has been going on for more than a year.

2. The laptops of Clinton aides Cherryl Mills and Heather Samuelson have not been destroyed, and agents are currently combing through them. The investigation has interviewed several people twice, and plans to interview some for a third time.

3. Agents have found emails believed to have originated on Hillary Clinton's secret server on Anthony Weiner's laptop. They say the emails are not duplicates and could potentially be classified in nature.

4. Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

5. FBI sources say with 99% accuracy that Hillary Clinton's server has been hacked by at least five foreign intelligence agencies, and that information had been taken from it.
And by "'barring some obstruction in some way' from the Justice Department," they mean "people telling me 'a Steve Bannon book with no other evidence is not strong enough support for an indictment, you idiots.'"
posted by sallybrown at 5:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]


Watching Kellyanne Conway on CNN I gotta admire her sheer ability to gaslight the nation.

I fully expect that the title for her post-election tell-all memoir will be I Didn't Say That and You Didn't Read This.
posted by hangashore at 5:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

Luckily they aren't the ones that are supposed to make the call as to whether the evidence they're putting forth is enough to support an indictment or not, so "likely" here doesn't really mean anything unless the Justice Department has already indicated there's sufficient evidence.
posted by Karaage at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Corb, 538 snake has him at 266.
posted by Talez at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016


I was in the unusual position of having to reassure my therapist that things aren't that bad. She lives in a more conservative part of Massachusetts and has seen a bunch of Trumppence signs and noticed that "Clinton By 1" was trending on social media. I gave her the same advice I've seen others offer here: Hillary has had a steady six-point lead for the past few months; follow PEC, which is less click-baity than Nate Silver; volunteer if you can; and VOTE.

I didn't tell her to sign up for MetaFilter, because that would be weird. "I've noticed that every time Joe Biden puts on his sunglasses, you feel the need to tell people your mother has a crush on him. Why is that?"
posted by pxe2000 at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


Look at the HuffPo Pollster and ignore the rest. See that nice big healthy Clinton lead? Concentrate on that, and breathe.

I know this is meant to be helpful, but only looking at the one poll with good news is how Romney & Friends "knew" they had it in the bag. I'm concerned that's MeFi is starting to build its own bubble and not looking at the reality of what has happened to the race since we want to hold on to that feeling we had when Clinton had a clear lead. She doesn't anymore. And the chances of retaking the Senate are dire. We can ignore it for our mental health, but we shouldn't tell ourselves comforting lies.
posted by tzikeh at 5:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


HuffPo is a poll aggregator, tzikeh.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


mostly vowels I seem to recall in one of the election threads link to a story or research showing that when Democrats win with larger margins, they govern more from the left than the center.

Why turnout matters, even in true-blue districts: Large margins of victory make politicians more responsive to progressive goals
posted by chris24 at 5:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


I will also note that a number of the FBI leak articles mention the FBI agents using Wikileaks documents to build their case. It seems, um...unlikely...that documents stolen by Russia as part of a plot to hack our election that is currently also being investigated by the FBI are going to be used in any legitimate way in handing down an indictment or bringing a legal case.
posted by sallybrown at 5:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Corb, 538 snake has him at 266.

242 now, so breathe. Also McMullin is now on the EV board!
posted by corb at 5:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


> "I just got pushed an ad saying 'Trump has 259 EVs per polls', and I'm like, no, that is bullshit, I follow this closer than most and literally no one has him at a 259 EV output, stop panicking me to get money Clinton campaign."

538 Polls Plus has him at 246 (243 Polls Only), with no recent change to the general upward trend. RCP puts him at 265 with no tossup states.
posted by kyrademon at 5:44 AM on November 3, 2016


4. Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

This is just more toilet-bowl spin from a GOP that is getting flushed. What it really tells us is that the FBI isn't doing much investigating, because apparently they're all busy calling their favorite reporters. And it tells us that Comey has lost control of his institution. He is not long for his job.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 5:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


I will also note that a number of the FBI leak articles mention the FBI agents using Wikileaks documents to build their case. It seems, um...unlikely...that documents stolen by Russia as part of a plot to hack our election that is currently also being investigated by the FBI are going to be used in any legitimate way in handing down an indictment or bringing a legal case.

Forgot my last thought - so this should be a clue about the intelligence, motivations, truthfulness, and in-the-know-ness of the leakers (as well as those in the press who are blithely reporting it).
posted by sallybrown at 5:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I stay calm by only checking electoral-vote.com, which currently has T at 221 and Hillary at 317.
posted by mothershock at 5:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed. The Clinton hearings leading up to his impeachment were truly a low point in American democracy - and while I get that historically they were not so unprecedented (from the result, maybe yes, but the viciousness and blatant falsity, pretty par for the course.) What I sincerely hope, though is that these assholes (and by that I mean anyone like Starr or Comey, who try to make hay out of dirt.

There's a disconnect there - like with the 'Benghazi Conspiracy' Where there could very well be something illegal happening but there's so much shouting and finger pointing that the real issue, the real point of it gets lost. Mostly, though, the lying is fucking tiring.

I also want Anthony Weiner to experience sufficient remorse that he decides to change his name and go join a monastery and is never heard from again. Even if the engine of that remorse is not merely emotional in nature but physical. Like, I'll come back to the States to give him a lift.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]




4. Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

This is just more toilet-bowl spin from a GOP that is getting flushed.


Sure - but voters just hear "indictment."
posted by tzikeh at 5:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


@adr (celebrity librarian who emigrated from the USA to Canada):
americans who are all like "I wanna move to Canada" you dudes realize you can only get like 2, maybe 3 different kinds of oreos here, max
posted by Wordshore at 5:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]


Sorry, hit post too soon -
on edit,

If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed. The Clinton hearings leading up to his impeachment were truly a low point in American democracy - and while I get that historically they were not so unprecedented (from the result, maybe yes, but the viciousness and blatant falsity, pretty par for the course), I really hoped I wouldn't have to watch that kind of bullshit again. What I sincerely hope is that these assholes (and by that I mean anyone like Starr or Comey, who try to make hay out of dirt) get bitched slapped into next week, or next month - which sufficient vigor that everyone takes a step back and reconsiders before trying to follow in their footsteps.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Sure - but voters just hear "indictment."

From Fox News. People who are watching Fox News wouldn't vote for Clinton if she could guarantee them a shiny new unicorn in every driveway.
posted by uncleozzy at 5:51 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


Relax y'all and look forward to saying Madame President for the next 4 years at least. This will be confirmed by 11pm Tuesday, so just take it easy.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:51 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


So, why are the poll aggregators getting such different results from the same information?

Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton 317 / Trump 221
Electoral Vote: Clinton 317 / Trump 221
Huffington Post: Clinton 302 / Tossup 72 / Trump 164
538: Clinton 292 / Trump 245
RCP: Clinton 273 / Trump 265

That's an enormous spread.
posted by kyrademon at 5:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Scott Lemieux at Lawyers, Guns and Money: The Clinton Rules and the Media’s Ghastly Failure to Inform the Public
[W]e should emphasize the media’s agency here. Comey’s letter was an appalling and indefensible partisan intervention into the election. But if it matters, it’s because the media failed to cover it accurately (as a scandal about Comey’s violation of longstanding procedures to provide no information worded in a way to allow the implication that Hillary Clinton is guilty of something) rather than inaccurately (as a Hillary Clinton scandal) or with meta-coverage that does Comey’s dirty work (did this letter damage Clinton?)
(The Yglesias piece Lemieux linked to is also worth reading, as it points out what a desperate fishing expedition both the "email scandals" and the obsession over Bill Clinton's penis were products of.)
posted by Gelatin at 5:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]


If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed.

Be prepared with Chaffetz at the helm. House Republicans are already preparing for ‘years’ of investigations of Clinton.
posted by Karaage at 6:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


On this greatest, most miraculous of mornings, I am going out for celebratory Eggs Benedict, and god help the fool who tries to stop me.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


New Trumpsign spotted on my way to work this morning:

Such economic anxiety. Very working class. Wow. Much downtrodden masses. (This is an 8 bedroom, 5 bathroom $2mil+ home situated adjacent to a university campus. Truly the salt of the earth, American heartland, etc...)

So, to recap the Trump displays I have seen around town: This one, 2 in my neighborhood which is solidly non-downtrodden working class (i.e., people with well paying blue color or first responder jobs) and middle class, and racially integrated which must be super awkward for those peoples' black neighbors, and a couple on multi-unit and retail buildings that were clearly placed there by the landlord (same landlord owns both buildings) because they are self-made vinyl banners affixed to the sides of the buildings. Putting that together with the new Trump table outside the library manned exclusively by LAX-bro stereotypes, I'm really not feeling the "feel the pain of the Trump supporters and their woeful plight" meme right now.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [26 favorites]


Kyrademon: one thing I've seen about 538's model is that it ties uncertainty in one state's polling to the results in other states, in a way that is considered unusual. Can't say about the others. But without the three closest states (NC FL NV), Clinton is at 273, and with them she is at 323, so that spread makes perfect sense to me.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


americans who are all like "I wanna move to Canada" you dudes realize you can only get like 2, maybe 3 different kinds of oreos here, max

that's twice or thrice the kinds of Oreos they have here in France!!
don't get me started on Tex-Mex

More on-topic: reportage over here is as freaking dismal as in the US, there are still article titles with "we explain how the latest brouhaha about Clinton emails may affect her campaign" and I keep having to tell colleagues THEY'RE WEINER'S EMAILS FFS and I'm starting to get all "we [French] have a presidential election coming up in a few months and the media are behaving like shit, this does not bode well" aaaand they're like "we're not the US lol" so I basically STFU now and keep giving money to the Clinton campaign.

I get to go through this again as soon as the 8th is passed. good lord. Keep in mind, Clinton will have to also work with whichever president we elect here. A few months after that, Germany holds its federal elections.
posted by fraula at 6:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Just had an egg white and turkey sausage sammich from Panera, not quite an Egg McMuffin but I don't feel quite as queasy afterward either. Also the McDs near my office is the notorious Heroin Happy Meal one so I tend to stay out of it.
posted by octothorpe at 6:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


538 also has consecutive posts on the site's front page entitled "Most Voters Haven't Changed Their Minds All Year" and "Trump's Chance Of Victory Has Doubled In The Last Two Weeks", which yes those two positions can be reconciled, but in order to do so you have to be positing a strangely specific set of unlikely circumstances. I.e they're hedging.
posted by penduluum at 6:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


So, after 108 years, down 3-1 in the series, behind in the game, in extra innings, after a rain delay, the Cubs finally win the World Series? And people took this as a good sign for Clinton? I mean, maybe, but the ridiculousness of that on top of all the other ridiculousness of the year has me starting to wonder how President McMullin will actually govern. It's just so crazy it's starting to feel almost inevitable given all else that's happened.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


New Trumpsign spotted on my way to work this morning

For the love of god, walk without rhythm.
posted by tocts at 6:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [68 favorites]


Slate: Hillary Clinton’s Firewall Appears to Be Holding
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


That's an enormous spread.

That's not an enormous spread. That's Florida and North Carolina, the two hardest-to-predict states.
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


There's no way the House picks freaking McMullin if it came down to that. What reason would they have? They'd be pissing off literally 95% of American voters, and we know by now that those guys ONLY care about keeping their jobs.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


For the love of god, walk without rhythm.

Nah, I've got my Maker hooks ready. Bring it on.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [24 favorites]


In a nutshell polls agree it's close in a lot of states and a clear Clinton lead in others. In order for DJT to win he has to win both. In order for HEC to win she has to just win the states she's supposed to be ahead in. Plus there's the possibility she like Obama in 12 is underpolling in which case: landslide.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


So, after 108 years, down 3-1 in the series, behind in the game, in extra innings, after a rain delay, the Cubs finally win the World Series? And people took this as a good sign for Clinton?
I take it as no sign for Clinton. Humans are probably biologically predisposed to looks for signs and portents and shit, but sportsball and elections aren't actually related.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


Who knows? No matter what happens at that point there is going to be a firestorm, so it might be best to try and hide behind a unknown rather than put either super-destructo-Donnie or the hated Hillary in office. If it we'd somehow go that completely nuts as a nation and end up with states deciding rather than the vote, there just aren't any sane options left.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:23 AM on November 3, 2016


"Don't fret or wet, go pet a pet."
-Abraham Lincoln
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I take it as no sign for Clinton. Humans are probably biologically predisposed to looks for signs and portents and shit, but sportsball and elections aren't actually related.


Heh. Yes, I too believed that before 2016.


And still do really, but I'm willing to at least listen for those magical voices now.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


RE: Cubs/Indians

@nanaze
One racist cartoon down, one to go.
posted by chris24 at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]




So, after 108 years, down 3-1 in the series, behind in the game, in extra innings, after a rain delay, the Cubs finally win the World Series? And people took this as a good sign for Clinton?

You have to admit the symbolism is a little on the nose for her career and this election cycle. (The rain delay was Obama...)
posted by Andrhia at 6:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


The Cubs also won a MLB-best 103 games this year, were denied home field advantage by way of the (stupid) All-Star Game rule, and won the series by doing the things they did during the regular season. I think there are some positive similarities between their season and the Clinton campaign.
posted by strange chain at 6:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [26 favorites]


The Cubs never trailed in that game.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


So, the House has voted for President twice.
1800, you will have heard of. The Dem-Reps screwed up and voted in a tie under the old system. Eventually the Federalists quit gumming up the works, and the actual Presidential candidate won.
In 1824, the Dem-Reps had been the only party in power for so long, the one-party system was de facto a no-party system. Neither Adams nor Jackson were the official nominee, but then that guy had a stroke after Election Day. Clay finished fourth, so he was out, and teamed up with Adams to give him the win.
Andrew Jackson was so pissed off he went out and founded his own party, with a national convention that would bring the whole party together to actually decide who the candidate would be.
We have never had an election in the modern two-party system go to the House. If this one did, it'd be a test of whether the GOP is really cracking up or not.
The new House votes by state. You need 26 states to win, and they will keep voting until there is one. If no winner by January 20, the new Senate (+ Biden), which elects the VP, would be picking an acting president, only until the House picks someone.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 6:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Cubs lead wire to wire and the only reason the Indians came back is because of errors. 🤔
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Now that we see the theme of 2016 is in fact "good triumphs over evil," I'm coming out of the closet as a Blue Texas Truther. Hillz with 400+, motherfuckers. Come at me.

(No but really, no way the likely voter screens are catching all the terrified and pissed off first time voters, or all the terrified and pissed off Latinx. I do expect them.)
posted by schadenfrau at 6:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


Donald Trump is Antichrist v. 0.93, the beta test.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Anyway there is no such things as signs. The basilisk will strike whenever it pleases.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


The Cubs never trailed in that game.

Ah, good, I was misinformed.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:30 AM on November 3, 2016


Americans - if you need an absorbing sporting distraction from the election, especially now the Cubs have wrapped things up, then look towards your national side for something even more nail-biting than the baseball World Series or the election. It's nearing the climax of the Division Four series being held in Los Angeles, and there's a three way tie at the top between Oman, Denmark and the USA. After the the USA started on a winning run, only losing for the first time against Denmark, it's going down to the wire. Tomorrow, the USA play Jersey and hoping that goes well, they'll be into the final on Friday. Tense times.
posted by Wordshore at 6:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Also the Cubs are owned by a staunch Hillary supporter. IF SIGNS EXIST THIS IS A GOOD 1 DO NOT @ ME
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


I take it as no sign for Clinton. Humans are probably biologically predisposed to looks for signs and portents and shit, but sportsball and elections aren't actually related.

Not probably, we are predisposed to look for patterns and assign meaning to events. It's basic pattern recognition and is a basic cognitive function that is necessary for basic survival. Like a lot of thinks it has it's negative side and can lead to types of magical thinking.
posted by Jalliah at 6:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Donald Trump is Antichrist v. 0.93, the beta test.

Why did it have to be an open beta?
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


That's brilliant. Beta Test Antichrist is my new band name.
posted by whuppy at 6:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


The Cubs are owned

Errr, RUN not owned. They're owned by lizards as all sports teams are.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


Also, signs can be self-fulfilling prophecies. Good omens lead to more effort higher turnout. Positivity wins.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Also the Cubs are owned by a staunch Hillary supporter. IF SIGNS EXIST THIS IS A GOOD 1 DO NOT @ ME

Cubs are GMed by a Hillary supporter, but owned by staunch Republicans who Trump threatened earlier this year.

@realDonaldTrump
I hear the Rickets family, who own the Chicago Cubs, are secretly spending $'s against me. They better be careful, they have a lot to hide!

He also criticized how they were run:

@KFILE
Donald Trump said the Chicago Cubs were a poorly run baseball team in March: [image]
posted by chris24 at 6:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


The Cubs versus Sharks ballgame is probably a good omen.
posted by sebastienbailard at 6:40 AM on November 3, 2016


If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed.

You're going to be disappointed then. The House will be Republican, that's all but a mathematical certainty, and it will therefore spend the next four years attacking Clinton like a rabid wolverine, squandering tens of millions on witch hunts "investigations", and generally doing nothing but indulging in the most far right Clinton Derangement Syndrome temper tantrums that it can manage.

If Clinton can't get a functional majority in the Senate it will play right along with the House and probably not merely flat out refuse to confirm any of her Supreme Court appointments, but also likely simply refuse to confirm **ANY** Clinton appointments, including her own Cabinet. If she does get a majority she'd better railroad her Cabinet picks and urge Ginsberg to retire ASAP because come 2018 the Senate is all but guaranteed to flip back to the Republicans at which point it will join the House in utter screaming frothing at the mouth rabid attacks on Clinton and refusing to do absolutely anything.

My hope rests on a Democratic Senate, a very quick set of Supreme Court confirmations followed by the Supremes ruling gerrymandering to be unconstitutional in time for hte 2020 elections to end the Republican hold on the House.

Because the next four years are going to be nothing but one long, continuous, never ending, Republican temper tantrum with Clinton exerting every erg of political energy and will she can muster merely to hold the status quo.

And that's the best case scenario.
posted by sotonohito at 6:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [62 favorites]


"Brazile, who didn’t respond Monday to a request for comment, said after WikiLeaks posted the earlier e-mail that she never had access to debate questions and wouldn’t have shared them if she did. She suggested the WikiLeaks documents may have been “misinformation.” The Clinton campaign has said the Russian government hacked the e..."

What a liar. I understand leaking questions is a small thing compared to other Clinton crimes. Fine, she lost quite a few votes which is fine because that won't matter what matters is the nightmare she will face daily as president.
Good luck hilly, because your going to need it.
posted by clavdivs at 6:42 AM on November 3, 2016


Tomorrow, the USA play Jersey and hoping that goes well, they'll be into the final on Friday. Tense times.

The USA's best association football players are facing off against the island of Jersey?

I suspect it will be a close game.
posted by ocschwar at 6:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Florida Man Steve Schale with an FL early-voting update

Two or three threads ago, someone mentioned the potential impact of Puerto Rican voters in Florida. Steve agrees:
It is obvious, but still important to stress, that the reason Puerto Ricans are changing the politics so fast, is unlike all other Hispanic migrants to Florida, they can vote on day one as US Citizens, so their growth has an acute impact on politics. Orange County, for example, once one of the whitest, and most Republican places, is now majority-minority in registered voters, and overwhelmingly Democratic. The changes aren’t as significant in Seminole, but they are still happening.
posted by strange chain at 6:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]


As for Brazile, while I find her ouster despite CNN keeping paid Trump campaign members on staff, I think the whole thing is awful.

A **NEWS AGENCY** shouldn't be keeping paid commentators who are also actual, no fooling, for real, members of any political party organization around. Invited on as guests perhaps, but kept as if they were legitimate journalists, not a chance.
posted by sotonohito at 6:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


More on the connection between the Trump campaign and the NY FBI: Meet Donald Trump's Top FBI Fanboy
Kallstrom is the former head of the New York FBI office, installed in that post in the ’90s by then-FBI director Louis Freeh, one of Giuliani’s longtime friends. Kallstrom has, like Giuliani, been on an anti-Comey romp for months, most often on Fox, where he’s called the Clintons as a “crime family.” He has been invoking unnamed FBI agents who contact him to complain about Comey’s exoneration of Clinton in one interview after another, positioning himself as an apolitical champion of FBI values. . . .

In a wide-ranging phone interview on Tuesday with The Daily Beast, Kallstrom first repeated his claim that he gets hundreds and hundreds of calls and emails but stressed they all came from retired agents, adding that he didn’t “want to talk about agents on the job.” Then he acknowledged that he did interact with “active agents.” The agents mostly contacted him before the recent Comey letter because “in all but two cases,” they agreed with what he was saying in his TV appearances, noting that those two exceptions both thought “I should be more supportive of Comey.”

Kallstrom adamantly denied he’d ever said he was in contact with agents “involved” in the Clinton case, insisting that he didn’t even know “the agents’ names.” He asked if this story was “a hit piece,” and contended that it was “offensive” to even suggest that he’d communicated with those agents. When I emailed him two quotes where he made that claim, he responded: “I know agents in the building who used to work for me. I don’t know any agents in the Washington field office involved directly in the investigation.”

Later, though he acknowledged that “the bulk” of the agents on the Weiner case are “in the New York office,” even as he insisted that the “locals” he told Pirro would’ve leaked the renewed probe had not Comey revealed it were not necessarily agents.

He declined to explain why Megyn Kelly stated as a fact that he was in contact with agents “involved” in the case. Asked in a follow up email if he suggested or encouraged any particular actions in his exchanges with active agents, Kallstrom replied: “No.”

“Now, I’m supporting Comey,” Kallstrom told me on the phone, adding that he can’t do or say anything else before election day. “He can’t characterize” what the bureau has from the Weiner emails. “The FBI can’t say anything without having all the information,” Kallstrom contends, just after telling me he supports the FBI director who’s under fire for having done just that.

And, though he predicted in September that more facts about the Clinton case would soon come out, he told me he was “surprised” by the Comey letter. Calling Giuliani a “very good friend,” who he’s seen in TV studios a couple of times recently when they were both doing appearances, Kallstrom said he thought Giuliani was more likely referring to WikiLeaks revelations or videotapes from Project Veritas when he teased big surprises to come. . . .

It’s clear enough, though, why when Comey sent a note to FBI staff on Friday explaining his decision to inform Congress about the renewed Clinton probe, the scoop about that internal memo went to Fox News. Why Kallstrom gets booked to talked about the Clintons a “crime family.” Why Clinton Cash author Peter Schweitzer, caught in a web of Breitbart and Trump conflicts, would announce on Fox that he was asked in August to sit down with New York office FBI agents investigating the Clinton Foundation (with The New York Times reporting this week that the agents were relying largely on his discredited work when they pitched a fullscale probe).
This is SOME bullshit.
posted by sallybrown at 6:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]


I am cautiously optimistic about a Democratic Senate (though I'm much more firmly optimistic about a Clinton win). And Senate means liberal Supreme Court, for the first time in 50-odd years.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


If she does get a majority she'd better railroad her Cabinet picks and urge Ginsberg to retire ASAP because come 2018 the Senate is all but guaranteed to flip back to the Republicans at which point it will join the House in utter screaming frothing at the mouth rabid attacks on Clinton and refusing to do absolutely anything.

Goddamn right. Get those justices in NOW. Breyer and Ginsburg, you've seen what the future holds. The Republican party will get dragged out kicking screaming and soiling themselves whilst openly embracing white nationalism all the way down. Hopefully they make such a shitshow from 2018-2020 that it assures Clinton re-election.

I give it better than 50-50 odds that they impeach her. Because it's not like they have any coherent policy positions*; they literally have nothing left but a frothing scream of "No!"

*c.f. Trump
posted by leotrotsky at 6:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


Good luck hilly, because your going to need it.


Not gonna happen. Because if the GOP overplays that hand, she quits, and then Kaine becomes president.

And they have nothing on him.
posted by ocschwar at 6:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


It is really remarkable to me that there hasn't been an FBI/DOJ memo leaked telling people to stop leaking to the press.
posted by dismas at 6:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


You're going to be disappointed then.

Absolutely. I am going in clear-eyed that what I am voting for this election is not a functional government for the next four years, it's simply non-apocalypse. The government will not be functional, but we will still have a country at the end of it, and I still hopefully will have my 401k and my house and we won't be in the midst of a nuclear winter. That's it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]


And they have nothing on him.

You say that like it matters. They didn't have anything on Obama, either. The man had the cleanest slate of any politician in recent memory, and they threw a tantrum for eight fucking years.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [117 favorites]



I wouldn't even characterize it as leaking anymore. The FBI people doing this are just brazenly talking to the press at this point.
posted by Jalliah at 6:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


One of the guys who plays in my D&D group is a vocal Trump supporter. It's earned him a fairly frosty reception that led to him approaching me last week to ask why some of the group didn't seem to like him.

That's my excuse to share something I see as a positive sign. I'm in a Facebook group for D&D dungeon masters, where a female DM posted a message about having to boot a player who wanted to role-play his character's sexual encounters, and pestered her about it after she refused. She asked the group if she did the right thing by telling him he was no longer welcome at her table.

We've talked before here on the Blue about how geek culture has its sexist blind spots, but I was utterly heartened to see that the commentary was solidly on her side. Nearly everyone declared that such harassment has no place in the game, that she was completely within her rights to participate in his character's slashfic, and that she had every right to give him the boot when he wouldn't abide by her decision. Not a few pointed out that guys like him can give their hobby a bad reputation.

Conservative pundits like to complain that feminism and liberal values lead to a joyless, sterile society, but as so often with conservative claims, the opposite is true. It's better when everyone is valued and a single sexist jerk isn't allowed to ruin things for everyone.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [70 favorites]



You say that like it matters. They didn't have anything on Obama, either. The man had the cleanest slate of any politician in recent memory, and they threw a tantrum for eight fucking years.


This one's white.
posted by ocschwar at 6:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


You're going to be disappointed then. The House will be Republican, that's all but a mathematical certainty, and it will therefore spend the next four years attacking Clinton like a rabid wolverine, squandering tens of millions on witch hunts "investigations", and generally doing nothing but indulging in the most far right Clinton Derangement Syndrome temper tantrums that it can manage.

The Brian Buetler piece I linked above posits that we're not being imaginative enough. They're going to impeach her, that's not even a question. Further, Republicans could not only refuse to confirm a SCOTUS pick, which they've already all but promised not to do, or confirm any cabinet appointments, but they could also:

-refuse to fund the government
-tie Republican policies like repealing Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, or hell, reducing the size of the Supreme Court, to the debt ceiling and force Clinton into repeated shutdown-causing vetoes
-withhold disaster spending or tie it to Republican policies
-refuse to follow SCOTUS rulings made by a 5-4 Clinton majority if there is one
-refuse to follow decisions made by Clinton executive appointees
-keep suing over everything on flimsy grounds
-tie funding the government to Clinton releasing documents to further their witchhunts

They've already flirted with all of the above under Obama. There's no evidence that they are remotely driven by any desire to keep the government functioning, and the last 8 years has been a constant progression of ever more extreme norm breaking and obstruction. At the very least they're going to keep up the same things at the same rate, but this election has shown that the extremists are now the ones running the party. There's no long the slightest check on what they're willing to do to stop the smallest Democratic success, much less a large one.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]


Oh my god Im watching MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle interview a Trump asshat and I think today's the day she will finally shoot lazors out of her eyes and burn a hole through a Trump-surrogate's head. I just know she she's got lazor eyes. She is so smart and tough but so IDGAF-funny. She's got The Ellerman in her.

I stopped watching cable news in 2012 (other than major news events) and willl wean myself off again after the election, but I might make an exception for her hour.
posted by Room 641-A at 6:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


On a related note, one thing that's heartened me this election is logging on to other discussion sites where I wouldn't expect a strong Democratic audience, sites for classic baseball and other sports, for example, and finding not only support for the dems but vehement pro-Clinton anti-Trump attitudes and only minimal pushback, so I'm a little more optimistic than the polls seem to suggest about the race.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


FOX News: Casting notice goes out for new 'up-and-coming' conservative news network

"Donald Trump denies he is interested in launching a new conservative news venture, but somebody sure is.

What's being billed as an "up-and-coming conservative media network currently in development" is now scouring for hosts, reporters and right-leaning, well-spoken panelists, according to a brand new casting notice obtained Wednesday evening by Fox News...

Auditions are being held at an undisclosed New York City studio on Nov. 7, the eve of Election Day."

I guess Trump isn't planning on winning.
posted by chris24 at 7:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


What, you mean the new Ministry of Information?
posted by wenestvedt at 7:03 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


If Trump (hopefully) loses (and loses badly), but wants to stay in politics, then there's a political party here in the UK with a rapid turnover of leaders and very similar views and rhetoric to himself. A perfect match.
posted by Wordshore at 7:04 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


This one's white.

And a woman.
posted by Roommate at 7:04 AM on November 3, 2016


And a woman.

The comment was a reference to Kaine.
posted by Jalliah at 7:06 AM on November 3, 2016


Grr. Misread. Never mind.
posted by Roommate at 7:06 AM on November 3, 2016


Tim Kaine is a woman? Why won't crooked media cover?
posted by Behemoth at 7:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


But still. they were pretty frothy about Bill, and have steadily been getting worse. I think in the end they'll refuse to cooperate with anyone with a "D" by their name.
posted by Roommate at 7:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


They meant Kaine if they somehow impeached Clinton. Not that they could nor that they would leave anyone alone that they didn't support. Until a new leader comes along with some ideas about how conservatism can work in govt (and not in a fascist way!), they are going to be stuck in anarchy mode for a long time.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:09 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


So I hope everyone here who has a chance to vote early has voted or is planning to do so before Election Day. Even if it wouldn't be a problem for you to wait in line on Tuesday, it might be a problem for another prospective voter because of childcare needs, disabilities, or simply because they need to get to work.

It's one small thing we can do to help and one small thing to ease the panic. Let's give those who must vote on Election Day the best possible chance to be able to cast their ballot!
posted by lydhre at 7:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


This one's white.

I don't think that's going to matter much, as far as the far-right response to a potential President Kaine. For Obama the black man it was "he's secret muslim Kenyan", for Clinton the woman it's "nasty bitch," but recall that for Kerry the white cishet male war-hero it was "effeminate flip-flopper coward". The hard-right opposition will always be able to find something they consider Not Real American to splash all over whomever the democrat is. Who knows, maybe for Kaine it would even be Papist or something, revive that old-school bigotry, all retro style
posted by Greg Nog at 7:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [48 favorites]


I don't think that's going to matter much, as far as the far-right response to a potential President Kaine. For Obama the black man it was "he's secret muslim Kenyan", for Clinton the woman it's "nasty bitch," but recall that for Kerry the white cishet male war-hero it was "effeminate flip-flopper coward". The hard-right opposition will always be able to find something they consider Not Real American to splash all over whomever the democrat is. Who knows, maybe for Kaine it would even be Papist or something, revive that old-school bigotry, all retro style

I'm going with "secret anchor baby" as the reprehensible Kaine branding we end up with.
posted by duffell at 7:14 AM on November 3, 2016


Kaine is Catholic, so we'll be partying like it's 1960
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


americans who are all like "I wanna move to Canada" you dudes realize you can only get like 2, maybe 3 different kinds of oreos here, max

My mom collects all the weird flavors of Oreos. I have like six different flavors of 'em right now in the house. I just tried candy corn (not worth it) and I have red velvet and Swedish Fish (?!?!) and haven't even gotten up the nerve to try it. I do recommend peanut butter, lemon, and Fruity Crisps if you can find those.

I think I could live without the Oreos if the politics was less crazy. But see above "Canada doesn't want me because I'm not smart, rare, or special" commentary :P
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


What online streaming election-night-coverage options are there going to be? Anybody know? I ask because my TV gets only one station (a weird religious one) and I'm reluctant to go to a bar that night.
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 7:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


homunculus: Teen Who Allegedly Got Weiner Sexts “Upset” With Comey: The teenager exclusively told BuzzFeed News she is upset with the FBI for not informing her that her case became tied to the use of Hillary Clinton’s private email server.

Just had to get that "exclusively" in there, did you?


Yeah, because of all the endlessly shitty things about a fifteen year old young woman being sexually propositioned by a married, 52 year old man, and who is being used as a political pawn by a branch of the US government to try and sway an election in favor of a racist, sexist, rapey human garbage fire, that's truly what we should be upset about.
posted by zarq at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


Nevada info. Looking good.

@ForecasterEnten
Something like 60%+ of NV has already voted. Numbers are consistent with a Clinton win, unless there's something funky is up.

@RalstonReports
Wow. Dems win big today in Clark, nearly 5,000-voter edge. Was 4,000 on this day in 2012. Clark firewall now at 55,000.
UPDATE: The Nevada Early Voting Blog
posted by chris24 at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


If Clinton Wins, Get Ready For Another Impeachment. Yup, that'll be true. They'll probably actually get her impeached, too.

Sigh.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


revive that old-school bigotry, all retro style

Yeah, they've already got that part going. I'm surprised they haven't moved on to the Irish yet.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016


Colbert will be on Showtime from 11-midnight, I think.

He was on "Fresh Air" yesterday and it was a really good interview.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Yup, that'll be true. They'll probably actually get her impeached, too.

Well sure, because impeachment is the process. but there's no way they're getting 2/3 of the Senate to remove her. It'll just be another expensive time waste that'll likely improve her favorables, just like it did for Bill.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [51 favorites]


They'll probably actually get her impeached, too.

They'll never convict her in the Senate and BClinton's highest favorables were when Rs overreached. Honestly, it might be the best thing for midterm 2018 as far as motivating Ds.
posted by chris24 at 7:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


My mom collects all the weird flavors of Oreos. I have like six different flavors of 'em right now in the house. I just tried candy corn (not worth it) and I have red velvet and Swedish Fish (?!?!) and haven't even gotten up the nerve to try it. I do recommend peanut butter, lemon, and Fruity Crisps if you can find those.

The Red Velvet ones are weird because of the "cream cheese" frosting.
posted by ArgentCorvid at 7:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Anyway. The right's treatment of Catholic Democrats in the last decade or two hasn't been generically anti-Catholic; instead they've exploited existing political and ideological divides among Catholic laity and leadership in the US. As Kaine's star rises, watch for more and more hard-right Republicans embracing right-wing reactionary bishops, and expect more news stories about individual priests and bishops announcing they'll deny communion to anyone who supports a pro-choice platform.
posted by duffell at 7:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


Yeah, I love cream cheese but I dunno about 'em. They probably can't be as bad as some others though, I hope? I can say that candy corn literally just tasted like cake icing. Which is a vast improvement from the nasty plasticness of candy corn, mind you, but everyone else I had try it said it was all too sweet.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:27 AM on November 3, 2016


This all bodes well for an alt-right Gangs Of New York remake
posted by Greg Nog at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


HFA email team should just start giving everything they send out the subject line "BEDWETTING TODAY: $TIMEOFDAY EDITION"
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


refuse to follow decisions made by Clinton executive appointees
refuse to follow SCOTUS rulings made by a 5-4 Clinton majority if there is one

Huh? They're the legislative branch. They can't do shit except pass laws. Enforcement falls to the executive branch, which belongs to the president. Any crazy shit they pass is then subject to the judiciary.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


I don't see the point of wringing our hands about what the Rs will do after the election. We will have plenty of time for that when it happens. I feel fairly certain that Clinton's team will have some kind of plan for what is best to do in that situation.

We need to cultivate a calm, steely, Clinton-esque resolve that, regardless of the crap that's going to be thrown, we will persevere.
posted by emjaybee at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [69 favorites]


The president is required to be a native born citizen. Is that true for all those in the line of succession?
posted by rebent at 7:29 AM on November 3, 2016


It is really remarkable to me that there hasn't been an FBI/DOJ memo leaked telling people to stop leaking to the press.

The Obama Administration's immune system is only triggered by leaks of actual wrongdoing.
posted by indubitable at 7:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Anyone who's looking at trashy individual polls taken 5 days before the election and waving their arms around like a panicked Kermit (I'm looking at one person specifically here) should a) go vote, if possible (it really does calm the nerves), and b) read up on early voter numbers. The crossover rate, Dems winning unaffiliated voters, and just general "crushing it" nature of dem turn-out in EV is very heartening.
posted by codacorolla at 7:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


The president is required to be a native born citizen. Is that true for all those in the line of succession?

Mu. I believe that any position in the line of succession below VP can be filled by someone who isn't a natural born citizen - but they get excluded if the line of succession actually needs to be invoked.
posted by Francis at 7:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


according to a brand new casting notice obtained Wednesday evening by Fox News...

My favorite part about this is that it will pit Fox News against Batshit News. They really will be horribly divided.

Excellent.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


For shame! Candy corn is delicious. Fall harvest mix 4eva.
posted by ian1977 at 7:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


The president is required to be a native born citizen. Is that true for all those in the line of succession?

To become President, yes; otherwise they just get skipped (e.g. Madeleine Albright).
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Did anyone listen to the Seneca, Nebraska episode of Radiolab? It's about a dying town in Nebraska that fought in two even camps over nothing much on the surface, to the point of its own destruction. And in the aftermath all there is is abiding hatred: "those horrible people." In its own way it shook me harder than a lot of the presidential election.
posted by argybarg at 7:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


I "met" Newt Gingrich, once. He dropped by a software engineering course I was taking at Georgia Tech in November or December of '98, for reasons I don't recall, after he'd announced his resignation post-backlash to the impeachment proceedings.

He looked... broken.

It was beautiful.

Impeach another Clinton? Please. Bring it.
posted by Vetinari at 7:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


I'm depressed by the talk of impeachment. Like others have pointed out there's no way there will be votes in the Senate for conviction and removal, so it's a complete waste of time and money.

Also, I strongly feel that impeachment should only be used for offenses committed as president. The American people will have already ruled on the alleged pay for play and private server stuff by electing her.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


My favorite part about this is that it will pit Fox News against Batshit News.

Sadly, I bet the whole thing pushes Fox more to the right.
posted by drezdn at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


As Kaine's star rises, watch for more and more hard-right Republicans embracing right-wing reactionary bishops...

And then watch Pope Francis push back pretty strong, because he don't truck with that.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


TPM: Pence Won't Say If Paul Ryan Should Be Re-Elected As House Speaker
Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence dodged questions in an interview published Thursday about whether or not he thinks House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) should keep his job. Pence refused three times to answer whether he believes Ryan should be re-elected, according to a report by the National Review. “My respect for Paul Ryan is boundless,” he told the Review twice. “I’m not a member of the House Republican conference anymore. I wouldn’t presume upon what the members of the conference choose.” According to the Review, one of Pence's senior advisers later explained that if Pence was still a member of Congress, he would vote to re-elect Ryan.
I feel bad for taking so much joy in this, not least because I'm sure Pence's preferred replacement would be worse, but come on: how else was 'I endorse the ticket but won't defend it and won't work to elect them' going to go over?
posted by cjelli at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


So, he wants to run the nation like a business, hmmm? Sad, given how well his business is doing in Toronto.
posted by peppermind at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


FelliniBlank, I pity the fool.
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


One other thing: if you're obsessively following Nate Silver's chest beating on 538 and buying into his panic, keep in mind that 538 is currently in the top 100 visited sites in the US. Panic-mode makes Nate a loooooooot of money.
posted by codacorolla at 7:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


Vetinari: Not broken enough, evidently.
posted by adamgreenfield at 7:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Panic-mode makes Nate a loooooooot of money.

A close race (even if we have to pretend it's closer than it really is) is good for revenue in all media. Based on election threads vs others around here, it's good for MetaFilter's page views, too!
posted by rokusan at 7:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


Also, I strongly feel that impeachment should only be used for offenses committed as president. The American people will have already ruled on the alleged pay for play and private server stuff by electing her.

On the other hand, if President Trump is found guilty after his election of child rape, I think impeachment would be an appropriate path to follow, for the sake of the nation.
posted by ejs at 7:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?

There is of course a long tradition of people who leave their home country / culture semi-permanently or permanently for a variety of personal, economic, political, or social reasons. It's one of the senses of the term "expatriate." In this particular circumstance the PM of Canada (I think it was, maybe just the Premier of Nova Scotia?) joked that Americans would find Cape Breton (part of Nova Scotia) lovely, and it was publicized by a Canadian radio DJ and became an internet thing. Their FAQ.

Coincidentally, we vacationed last summer in NS, and once the locals had gauged my politics (that I wasn't conservative), the generally left of center folks I met were full of questions about what I thought was going on in the U.S. election, and I heard the good-natured "You know, Canada is thinking about building a wall on the border... and making the U.S. pay for it, haha" joke a million times. Perhaps not surprisingly, a lot of these conversations happened in one or another of NS's many excellent brewpubs / brewery tasting rooms.
posted by aught at 7:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Question for the stat-heads among you:

So, a poll just came out showing Clinton up by +1 in Arizona. Before anyone gets too excited, other polls over the same period show Trump up, so let's assume for the moment it's an outlier.

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

PLEASE don't tell me it's because 538 sucks or Nate Silver wants clicks or whatever your personal opinion about the site is, I've already heard it. I am literally asking, solely and only, why mathematically would a model move in that direction after being given that poll?
posted by kyrademon at 7:47 AM on November 3, 2016


This has all been grand for bringing Mefite lurkers into the fold, that's for sure. Welcome, all you new guys!
posted by thebrokedown at 7:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [41 favorites]


However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

Because the model's previous state had Clinton up by more than +1 in Arizona before the new data was entered? In other words, the new data represents a weakening of Clinton's position.
posted by mazola at 7:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

Could Hillary's AZ "lead" have been higher in a previous version of that poll?
posted by drezdn at 7:53 AM on November 3, 2016


Regarding the poll, Nate might have decided it has a Dem bias. He would then subtract however many points he deems it biased by before averaging it in.
posted by Trifling at 7:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


So, he wants to run the nation like a business, hmmm?

How to run a nation like a business:
  • Only listen to the people at the top, ignore input from people in the trenches.
  • Make the poorest people work as hard as possible to further enrich the wealthiest, whose workdays often consist of golf and martini lunches.
  • Pay workers as little as possible.
  • Provide lowest amount of goods or services for highest possible prices.
Sounds like what we've been doing for centuries. Let's try something else.
posted by entropicamericana at 7:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [63 favorites]


So, a poll just came out showing Clinton up by +1 in Arizona. Before anyone gets too excited, other polls over the same period show Trump up, so let's assume for the moment it's an outlier.

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?


If the poll has a known bias (e.g., it's consistently more Democratic-leaning than all the others), they might be adjusting for that. So if all Whozis Polls have a known +3 Dem bias, the Whozis Arizona Poll of November 2nd that shows Clinton up 1 becomes an Adjusted Whozis Arizona Poll of November that they're reading as Trump up 2.

(I think that's very roughly how they do it, but I have no actual knowledge of their process.)
posted by Etrigan at 7:54 AM on November 3, 2016


kyrademon, that poll was adjusted in their model from +1 Clinton to +1 Trump, meaning 538 thinks that that polling outfit has a +2 Clinton bias.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 7:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Something to keep in mind during the breathless analyses of Black voter turnout: The Blame Game Has Already Started: The Myth Of The Depressed Black Turnout.
posted by TwoStride at 7:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


The last time I saw BREAKING NEWS on UK TV it was because Michael Heseltine admitted strangling his dog. Today, it was because Steven Seagal has been granted Russian citizenship by Putin. I really need to sort out which news channels I watch before US election day.
posted by Wordshore at 7:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


You can pre-order the Hamilton mixtape tomorrow.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


For shame! Candy corn is delicious. Fall harvest mix 4eva.

I've never wanted to flag something as much as I do this comment, but in the spirit of compromise and good will I've restrained myself.
posted by gusottertrout at 7:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


My Malawian friends have sent me occasional messages over the past year that are all variations on 'What is wrong with this man? What is wrong with these people who are voting for this man?'

For one, these friends are not fans of attacks on the Obamas, which is unsurprising as the Obama family is pretty popular in Malawi. Maybe more politically-relevant, most of them believe that Malawi narrowly dodged having another long-term dictator when former President Bingu wa Mutharika died of a heart attack in 2012, and they are dismayed to see the US potentially voting in such a demagogue.

Seriously - the whole world is watching.
posted by palindromic at 8:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]


Is the news that Putin granted Seagal Russian citizenship...like...a near-miss? Did Putin really mean to get Joe Arpaio over there before he can be locked up?

(And you really need to check out Seagal's look in the photo accompanying that article.)
posted by wenestvedt at 8:03 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


(And you really need to check out Seagal's look in the photo accompanying that article

definitely NOT bald or graying
posted by entropicamericana at 8:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


palindromic, I remember from my time living in Malawi that the bus station vendors sold "bin Laden" buns (not because they liked bin Laden, but because he was a well-known name). The bin Laden buns had a heavy dusting of flour on top, leaving a big white flour beard on the face of anyone who ate one. At some point there were Obama buns in the mix too. I can't help but wonder if they sell bright orange Trump buns there now.
posted by duffell at 8:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Steven Seagal has been granted Russian citizenship by Putin.

Oh boy, I see a great future in store for him if Trump is elected!
posted by octobersurprise at 8:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Saw a car on my way to work with MY CAT IS A DEMOCRAT bumper sticker. What does that mean? I don't know but it was funny.
posted by emjaybee at 8:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Study Suggests No Hidden Trump Voters:
According to a new study, a hidden army of Donald Trump voters that’s undetected by the polls is unlikely to materialize on Election Day.

“The study — which was comprised of interviews with likely voters conducted over the phone with a live interviewer, and other interviews conducted online without a personal interaction — showed only a slight, not-statistically-significant difference in their effect on voters’ preferences for president.”
posted by Chrysostom at 8:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Every time a new set of polls comes out, 538 updates their model, runs 10,000 simulations, and reports the results of the simulations. That's not enough simulations for all the randomness to even out. So sometimes there will be a pretty good poll but the simulation results will go down a bit, just due to randomness.
posted by dfan at 8:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Saw a car on my way to work with MY CAT IS A DEMOCRAT bumper sticker. What does that mean? I don't know but it was funny.

Chairman Meow isn't actually a democrat but he's willing to hold his nose and vote Clinton to keep Trump out.
posted by Talez at 8:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


Not forgetting that Steven Seagal has been assisted in his hour of need by a MeFite previously, yet again I wonder how we as an online/IRL community have affected and influenced not just the US election, but the world around us. (MetaTalk thread for a post-election day)
posted by Wordshore at 8:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


I hear Purrnie Sanders is out stumping for Clinton though.
posted by Talez at 8:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]




Chairman Meow

Mousey-Tongue, surely
posted by beerperson at 8:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [57 favorites]


My cat is 100% a Republican, he is basically Greebo except he still has both eyes. I have no doubt that he feels that he pulled himself up by his bootstraps by getting picked up off the streets of Detroit as a kitten, that he has worked for every comfort in his life, and has subsequently carried himself with totally unearned confidence.
posted by palindromic at 8:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [38 favorites]


a quiet, calming, earnestly humorous TV show where the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives and there's lots of slow mo pastoral beauty and folk music, I cannot reccomend binge watching both seasons of Detectorists

So I really like The Detectorists a lot, but I am not sure I agree with the bit about "the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives" bit. Both Andy and Lance are (maybe inadvertently because of their pathological passivity or extreme obsessive nerdery) quite frustrating to the women and others in their lives.
posted by aught at 8:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Mousey-Tongue, surely

get out
posted by entropicamericana at 8:20 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Latest Nevada early voting update. It gets pretty into the minutiae, but the upshot is current trends look like:

* Trump loss
* Heck (Senate) loss
* likely Dem pickups of 2 House seats
* possible Dem takeover of both houses of state legislature (those are both currently GOP).
posted by Chrysostom at 8:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]




Detectorists is lovely and everyone should go watch both series and the Christmas special right now. Yes, the male characters drive the women in their lives round the twist, but that’s because of who they are, not because any of them are misogynist shitbags played for laughs.

(ps, get the HD digital download if you can: there doesn’t appear to be any other way to watch it in HD & you’ll miss out on the full impact of lingering shots of the Essex countryside if you buy the DVD.)
posted by pharm at 8:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Federal Court Rejects PA GOP Efforts to Send Poll Watchers to Different Counties to Look for Voter Fraud

This is potentially a big ruling, keeping racist yahoo "poll watchers" from rural counties out of Philly and Pittsburgh.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]


Mousey-Tongue, surely

'Mousie dung,' per expert cat-pun-maker B. Kliban.
posted by palindromic at 8:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


(ps, get the HD digital download if you can: there doesn’t appear to be any other way to watch it in HD & you’ll miss out on the full impact of lingering shots of the Essex countryside if you buy the DVD.)

At least in the US, it's streaming on Netflix in HD. (That may be what you meant, but mentioning it in case you didn't).
posted by cjelli at 8:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


White Sox fan Barack Obama on the @cubs winning the World Series: "This is actually, for Cubs fans, the greatest thing since sliced bread.” (video)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]




For a positive sports+election story, here's a tweet from December 2015 of HRC signing a fan's custom Cubs jersey, wherein she notes '2016 is the year both will win.'
posted by palindromic at 8:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


wherein she notes '2016 is the year both will win.'

RIGGED
posted by tonycpsu at 8:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


Ugh. I haven't had nuclear war nightmares since the 80s. At least until recently.

Every single person casting for the rape pumpkin should be forced to sit through 1984's Threads first.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 8:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


White Sox fan Barack Obama on the @cubs winning the World Series: "This is actually, for Cubs fans, the greatest thing since sliced bread.”

I'll allow it only because sliced bread is the greatest thing since Betty White.
posted by Etrigan at 8:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


My cat is 100% a Republican, he is basically Greebo except he still has both eyes. I have no doubt that he feels that he pulled himself up by his bootstraps by getting picked up off the streets of Detroit as a kitten, that he has worked for every comfort in his life, and has subsequently carried himself with totally unearned confidence.

No doubt makes a big pile of shit and then expects someone else to clean it up.

He could have served in the second Bush administration.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


I'm depressed by the talk of impeachment. Like others have pointed out there's no way there will be votes in the Senate for conviction and removal, so it's a complete waste of time and money.

Don't be depressed about it! It's only a complete waste of time and money from the GOP point of view. It's basically the GOP spending money on Democratic mobilization. You know near the beginning of Blazing Saddles when Bart takes himself hostage? But imagine that it's Trey Gowdy* and nobody likes him so the crowd just urges him to shoot the hostage while we just jump up and down clapping like Playboy Penguin.

*Disclaimer: This should not be taken as a claim that Gowdy could successfully operate a revolver.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Detectorists is lovely and everyone should go watch both series and the Christmas special right now. Yes, the male characters drive the women in their lives round the twist, but that’s because of who they are, not because any of them are misogynist shitbags played for laughs.

Not to turn this into BBCfilter but I agree. They're obsessive nerds and drive the non-obsessive-nerds in their lives a bit mad, but it's not played for the usual infantalized men/scolding women laughs. In the end, everyone is just very sensible and get over their differences mostly like adults. They are legitimately trying to be good people. And the stay-at-home dad plot in season 2 avoids the low hanging fruit of "it's funny because he's a MAN caring for a BABY!" in a way that delights me.

As the slightly more down-to-earth wife of a guy with a pretty nerdy set of past-times (he's going to a tabletop historic wargaming con this weekend--his best friend that he's going with is even named Lance, I shit you not), I really liked how Becky totally accepts Andy's hobby even as she really has no desire to take part in it herself, and sometimes ribs him gently about it but never shames him. It's a really different dynamic than you'd expect from the set up.

/fanfare derail

posted by soren_lorensen at 8:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


I don't see the point of wringing our hands about what the Rs will do after the election. We will have plenty of time for that when it happens. I feel fairly certain that Clinton's team will have some kind of plan for what is best to do in that situation.

And I fervently hope that part of that plan involves calling out Republicans in advance for their obstructionism, pointing out that Republicans started conspiring to block anything Obama proposed -- even a health care policy created by conservatives -- even as he took the Oath of Office.

Let's have no more mealy-mouthed reporting "dysfunctional government" -- Clinton should start running against a do-nothing Congress from Day One, and point out clearly that "gridlock" is about Republicans refusing to do their jobs.

She should give pundits -- I'm looking at you, David Brooks -- no cover to write nonsense like "why oh why can't both parties meet in the middle" or "why or why won't the President propose some nice, middle-of-the-road proposal (which just happens to be what the president is proposing and Republicans obstructing).

Republicans will not give up their obstructionist tactics unless they pay a political price for it, and they won't pay that price as long as their behavior is normalized. Part of Clinton's job is to tell the American people that voted her into office exactly who's to blame for the "gridlock" they all hate.
posted by Gelatin at 8:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]


per expert cat-pun-maker B. Kliban.

"Love to eat them mousies" ... with guitar!
posted by octobersurprise at 8:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


/fanfare derail

A friendly reminder: Detectorists is on Fanfare, if anyone wants to continue this derail over there. Or start a discussion about Season 2, which isn't on Fanfare yet.
posted by cjelli at 8:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


As a child my bedroom was decorated in Kliban cats. This thread is giving me the nostalgia vapors now. I need to lie down.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


[Gentle nudge that if folks want to talk about tv shows or cats or Hamilton or other non-election stuff, that's better to do in other threads.]
posted by LobsterMitten at 8:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]


Center for Public Integrity: A nonpartisan guide to national security and foreign policy issues in the presidential election. Part 1: Trump Part 2: Clinton
posted by kirkaracha at 8:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Final rallies are now on the schedule. Trump's going back to Manchester, NH, which he considers a kind of lucky charm from the primaries. POTUS will be in NH earlier that day.

Hillary will be in Philly with Bill and Chelsea, Barack and Michelle. That was always the likely location: PA doesn't vote early, the city and the burbs will decide the state, and the historic symbolism forms the backdrop for a final argument that the choice is between the continuation of American democratic norms and something else entirely.
posted by holgate at 8:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Getting back to this #@!* election:

Dear Mister Rogers, What Would You Do if You Were President?
"If I had the awesome responsibility of being President, I would try to help the country and the members of Congress understand that there are proven ways of effectively helping children born to high-risk families - that early childhood care has a lasting impact on adult life."
Mr. Rogers is still looking after us. Don't make Mr. Rogers sad, America.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [67 favorites]


Matt Yglesias on Twitter:
The last time the Cubs won a World Series, the Republican Party favored voting rights for African-Americans.
posted by palindromic at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [94 favorites]


Alan Turdyk and Chris Pine star in If Congress Was Your Co-worker
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]


Plus Bill has a big van that he's going to use to drive people to the polls in the wake of the SEPTA strike.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


My cat is probably a Libertarian, because she doesn't give a shit about anyone else unless she wants something from them.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


My cat is a Democrat, because she pretends to care about everyone to get pets but secretly will claw the crap out of you when you aren't looking.

I don't actually have a cat
posted by koeselitz at 8:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Just heard about this CBC radio. I searched to see if it was posted before but could find it. Regardless it's a whole play list of Trump protest songs specifically written for the election and it's made me feel better listening to them. Aimee Mann, Death Cab for Cutie, REM, Ani Difranco. So far I'm partial to 'Mr Tangerine Man' by Wesley Stace.

30 days of 30 songs

Artists for a Trump Free America


30 Days, 30 Songs is an independent website that will release one song per day from October 10 until Election Day. It is produced by the creators of 90 Days, 90 Reasons, which sought to motivate voters to give President Obama a second term, and it features work from artists across the country.

As artists, we are united in our desire to speak out against the ignorant, divisive, and hateful campaign of Donald Trump. We will not be duped by Mr. Trump’s rhetorical contortions, by his pandering and lies and false promises. He has shown the content of his character time and time again, and the very fact of his candidacy is a blight on the nation. His words incite hatred and celebrate inequity. Most troubling of all, over the past year, the country has become inured to the towering vileness of his rhetoric and deeds, his attacks on women, Mexican-Americans, Muslims, and those with disabilities. But we have to remember these acts, and act against them. In the words of Cornell West, we cannot become "well-adjusted to injustice.”

posted by Jalliah at 8:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


Anybody catch that Lena dunham rap video? I'm sure that'll bring out the millennials to the polls.
posted by R.F.Simpson at 9:01 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm not saying that the Cubs winning the World Series means the End Times have come, but I saw the Beast buying a chili dog during the seventh-inning stretch.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:05 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Alan Tudyk and Chris Pine star in If Congress Was Your Co-worker

Saw that and really enjoyed it, not only for its subject matter and presentation but because Pine is so obviously having a ball doing it.
posted by Halloween Jack at 9:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


A nonpartisan guide to national security and foreign policy issues in the presidential election.

too bad the election is about emails and grabbing pussy this time, it might be nice for the public to hear a bit about, oh, what happens if we withdraw from NATO and replace it with the new Trump Alliance
posted by thelonius at 9:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


The Atlantic: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?
The Clinton team’s decision to focus so much more attention on states that it wants to win—as opposed to those it believes it needs to win—represents one of the central, if often unremarked upon, choices of the 2016 election. It has allowed her to play offense for most of the general election, while forcing rival Donald Trump to spend most of his energy defending states more indispensable to his strategy than to hers.

But it’s also meant Clinton has devoted little attention, beyond field organizing, to fortifying states where Trump is now making a late push amid the tailwind of tightening national polls. With Trump consolidating traditional Republican voters, Clinton faces the risk that she has overestimated her hold on the places most central to her strategy.
(Apologies to Justinian.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


TPM: McConnell Speaks Out On Trump: Make Him 'Most Powerful Republican':
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has largely avoided weighing in on Donald Trump's candidacy, especially over the past few months, but the senator on Wednesday night urged Kentucky residents to vote for the Republican nominee.

At a rally in Frankfort, Kentucky, McConnell told the crowd that "we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America," according to the Associated Press.

"If America votes like Kentucky, we'll be fine," he added.
posted by palindromic at 9:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


PlanPhilly: Democratic campaigns “concerned” SEPTA strike could derail electoral victories
With Election Day less than a week away and Transport Workers Union (TWU) Local 234 still on strike, Democrats hoping for big voter turnout in Philadelphia are growing increasingly nervous.

“I’m worried,” a senior campaign staffer for Katie McGinty told PlanPhilly. McGinty currently holds a 5 point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, according to RealClearPolitics’ average of polls. Democrats are pinning their hopes of winning back control of the Senate in large part on unseating Toomey in Pennsylvania.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is also concerned, said U.S. Rep. Bob Brady on Monday. Brady, who also chairs the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee, expressed his own concerns to reporters on Wednesday.

“It’s on my mind. A lot,” said Brady. “[Democratic campaigns] should be concerned. I’m concerned.” Brady added that he was hopeful that a deal would be made to end the strike before Election Day.
...
The potentially massive political ramifications are why SEPTA has said it will seek an emergency injunction to force the striking bus, subway and trolley employees back to work if the walkout persists.
...
Late Wednesday night, SEPTA officials said they would seek an injunction Thursday if the union did not agree to voluntarily suspend the strike for Election Day.
...
Would SEPTA win in court? That’s tougher to say. Suffice it to say there isn’t a lot of precedent here: It’s rare enough that an employer would seek to enjoin a strike, and rarer still that said union’s walkout on election day could affect voting.

“It’s a tough call,” said Joel Barras, a labor attorney and partner at Reed Smith. “It is very, very difficult to get an injunction of a work stoppage in this type of context, but if you're going to have a compelling reason to do so, a presidential election is a very good one.”
posted by cjelli at 9:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I saw the Beast buying a chili dog during the seventh-inning stretch.

His hair was perfect.
posted by Strange Interlude at 9:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]


What are the chances of TWU Local 234 just voluntarily deciding to take one for the team for one day without any injunction necessary from SEPTA?
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


This Creepy Unearthed Photo of Trump Must Be Carefully Studied:
We thought we knew all the greatest hits by now, but SPY recently discovered a long-lost Trump photo, and you're going to want to cancel all appointments to study this. Seemingly intended to work as either erotica or Trump's business card, the undated and uncredited photo features Trump dominating his then-wife Marla Maples, which would place it in the early 1990s. There is so much to process in this photo that it's too overwhelming to take it in all at once and may induce seizures. Let us take you on a more controlled tour of its many points of interest.

1. That Smirk

Anybody who's made eye contact with a smug frat boy who just dipped his genitals into an unsuspecting partygoer's drink knows this look: It says, "There's pretty much nothing I can't get away with, and you can bet your ass I've tested that theory."

2. The Hover


His slight forward pitch moves him from "standing" to "looming." Only a man who believes in his own immensely bold stature would insist on hovering over his recently betrothed loved-one like a Boeing V-22 Osprey waiting to lay waste to its intended target.
posted by palindromic at 9:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


The Atlantic: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?

something something horserace something something betteridge
posted by entropicamericana at 9:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


'If America votes like Kentucky, we'll be fine,' he added.

Thankfully America doesn't vote like Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]


Funny how differently we see numbers if you just change the representation slightly. Just had the following conversation with someone who's very worried about the 538 model giving a 33% probability of Trump winning:

"You know, I'll cheerfully give you 2-to-1 odds against Trump winning..." (I.e., offering to bet against Trump with the odds implied by the 538 model.)

"What? No way, those odds SUCK!"
posted by Coventry at 9:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


McConnell told the crowd that "we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

I wouldn't mind if this was the quote that was forever used henceforth to define McConnell's tenure as a public servant.
posted by Strange Interlude at 9:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


While doing some statistical analyses recently, I was surprised by how some states which I would pair together (in my mind) are so demographically different.
Kentucky: 7.3% black.
Tennessee: 17.1% black.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Issa is trying to tamp down on impeachment talk.

But he's about to be out of Congress, so he's probably trying to save his seat, and it's not really going to be his call. No word from Trey Gowdy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


@LatinoDecisions:
The final 5 national polls release in 2012:
Tie, Obama+1, Romney+1, Tie, Romney+1.
Actual margin Obama +3.9
Bad Latino sample = Bad Poll [image]
posted by chris24 at 9:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


The Atlantic: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?
...the campaign has devoted very little advertising or time from Clinton and her top surrogates in several of the states that are part of her core strategy for reaching 270 Electoral College votes—among them Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico.
HuffPost Pollster shows strong and relatively steady Clinton leads in Michigan (+7.7), Wisconsin (+6.1), Colorado (+5), Virginia (+7.2), and New Mexico (+8.9).
posted by kirkaracha at 9:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump is 100% running with the FBI is about to indict her in his rally today. Straight Breitbart.
posted by Talez at 9:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


Oh, hey, Atlantic. Let me put on my editor hat and I'll get right back to you: the campaign has devoted very little advertising or time from Clinton and her top surrogates in several of the states that are part of her core strategy for reaching 270 Electoral College votes— in which she has a commanding polling lead, among them Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico.

Fixed for accuracy, but I'm afraid it won't be as clickbaity as you wanted. Oh, and you're fired.

Taking off my editor hat and putting on my pundit hat, I'd be worried if she were diverting resources to supposeldy safe states, instead of playing on Republican turf the way she's been doing since, oh, the convention.
posted by Gelatin at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


This campaign is disgusting.
posted by Talez at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Bring in the closer(s).

@danmericaCNN:
Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Michelle Obama will campaign in Philadelphia on Monday night, per an aide.
posted by chris24 at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Part of my deliberations about who to vote for involved imagining how the major candidates would behave if impeached. I doubt they would behave exactly the same.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016


"we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!!
posted by octobersurprise at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I like to think that everyone is redeemable. Everyone can change and be good. Steve Bannon tests this belief because that guy is straight up evil.
posted by Talez at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


> My favorite part about this is that it will pit Fox News against Batshit News.

Sadly, I bet the whole thing pushes Fox more to the right.


I don't think it'll be an ideological battle as much as a competition for the shortest skirts and lowest necklines for the female hosts.
posted by peeedro at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America

Will his first Executive Order be to assume the identity of the Koch brothers, then?
posted by Etrigan at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


What are the chances of TWU Local 234 just voluntarily deciding to take one for the team for one day without any injunction necessary from SEPTA?

Non-zero, but beyond that hard to say. I'm assuming that they won't, because they've gone rather all-in on brinksmanship in past strikes rather than trying to play to popular opinion, and the management is substantially unchanged since then on both sides; they might want SEPTA to go through the work of getting an injunction, not fight it very hard, and then use the possibility of non-compliance to try to strikes a better deal before the election; or they might fight it, and then use the absence of one as leverage for settling the strike earlier. Or they might volunteer! That would be swell.

It's not too productive to speculate, though, since we'll know by the end of today, regardless, as today is the deadline SEPTA gave Local 234 for volunteering.
posted by cjelli at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


"we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

Well, at least we know where McConnell stands on that whole "support-but-not-endorse" thing. And Democrats should never let him forget it.
posted by Gelatin at 9:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I've been using the Hillary Call Tool for the MeFites United Team in between my computer's attempts to overheat itself. It says we've made 2,967 calls together as a team, but it doesn't update as I go.

I've been terrified of Trump since he announced and everyone around me told me I was crazy and paranoid for being worried. I'm refraining from filling this space with a long impassioned plea for folks to get out and volunteer. Instead it's just a short plea. Please, do something, anything, to help your local down ticket races. Or the ones in spots far away from you if you are confident in your local elections going {the way you want them to}.
posted by bilabial at 9:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


The Election Polls That Matter - Jim Messina offers a reassuring and fascinating look at what polls and data matter and why as per his experience in Obama's 2012 campaign.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


... when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?
I haven't seen the model so this is just speculation, but one possible explanation is that the poll degraded the model's estimate of the pollster's credibility because the poll looked implausible. That would weaken the contribution of other pro-Clinton polls from the same source.

Has anyone released an open-source implementation of the model?
posted by Coventry at 9:33 AM on November 3, 2016


> I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt.

Oh man. Don't do it! Do you want to give 2017 a challenge?
posted by ardgedee at 9:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


...the campaign has devoted very little advertising or time from Clinton and her top surrogates in several of the states that are part of her core strategy for reaching 270 Electoral College votes—among them Michigan

Hillary Clinton will be in Detroit tomorrow. In the past two months, I personally have seen Tim Kaine and Bill Clinton, and had work/school interfere with seeing Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Hillary. I don't feel Michigan has been ignored by top surrogates.
posted by palindromic at 9:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


From that Brownstein piece (my emphasis):
Clinton has devoted little attention, beyond field organizing, to fortifying states where Trump is now making a late push
That's a weirdly dismissive qualifier. Anyway, Brownstein's argument is that Clinton might regret not campaigning defensively for 273 EVs in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. The strategic problem with that argument is that it would have dragged Clinton onto Trump's territory in terms of things like trade policy, and given less focus to states whose demographics look more like the nation as a whole. (Think of it as a more abstracted version of an "I went to Bleaksville" story.) It also glosses over how the campaign has considerably more information about what the electorate looks like than he does.
posted by holgate at 9:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


I think a lot of impeachment talk is to depress votes and demoralize us. I've heard a few people in my circle say they can't face four more years of investigations and stonewalling. I don't think that would put any votes in Trump's column but it might turn someone into a "why bother, everything sucks" if they are marginal Clinton supporters.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]


[RE: turnaround time for implementation of legal marijuana]

If it's like the other states that have already legalized, maybe a year or so...


Here's how it happened in Oregon: Measure 91 was approved on November 4th, 2014 and officially went into effect on July 1st, 2015 — meaning possession was no longer illegal. Retail dispensaries had to wait until January 2016 to begin recreational sale.
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:37 AM on November 3, 2016


I've been out canvassing for statewide Democrats three times this month so far, and will be out again this weekend and on Election Day. Last night I finally logged into the call tool for Hillary (on the MeFite Team) and did some phonebanking for the first time. (Nobody picked up.)

Volunteering really really helps with my JCPL. I recommend it.
posted by aabbbiee at 9:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


A point of anecdata: my dad and stepmom (75 & 66 years old, respectively) are the typical upper-middle-class, actually-liberal-in-values-but-always-vote-Republican, southern white folks who have always confused me. (I mean, really, why don't you vote for the people who agree with you?) But cultural inertia is strong, especially in the American South, and there are lots of people like them. On top of this, they are long-time Clinton-haters, suffering from your basic Clinton Derangement Syndrome, and they have intense personal dislike for Hillary Clinton, because of a personal experience:

Years ago, my dad ran a region of an outdoor advertising agency based in Little Rock, and had to work directly with Governor Bill Clinton to resolve a very contentious zoning issue. (His impression of that interaction, back in 1987: that man will be president, probably soon.) Because of this, he and my stepmom were invited to some fancy cocktail party with a bunch of wealthy and/or powerful Arkansas people. So they went, and were completely out of place, and found themselves sitting on a sofa at the edge of a large room, chatting and people watching, when Bill & Hillary stopped nearby and had a private conversation, that was loud enough for my folks to hear.

Apparently they were mutually assessing the room, reviewing who was who, who was connected in some way they needed to be aware of, or etc. To me, the story has always sounded like a very savvy couple kind of brutally and effectively scoping a room before they have to go and work it, but to my dad and stepmom, well, let's just say they were horrified and very offended at how the Clintons were talking about people. So for years now, whenever Hillary has come up in a political conversation, both of them remember this with venom and zest that has been stoked and fed by Clinton Derangement Syndrome for decades, and it's always awkward (yes, we know this story, yes, we know that Hillary Clinton is horrible person and that you know this personally).

So you can imagine how our chats about the election have gone this year. While it was fun getting them to consider Sanders for a while, when the nominations formally became Clinton and Trump, I started to worry. You know why. But here's the part of this story that's important now: chatting with Dad a couple of days ago, I laughingly mention that Donald Trump (whom they are appropriately disgusted by) is having a rally near them (in NC), and he mentions "naw, we already voted....we're still taking sugar by the spoonful, though."

Y'all: these are the two people in my life who have hated the Clintons more specifically and for longer than anyone I know, and they both voted for Hillary. They're pissed about it, sure, but they're not dumb and they don't want people to suffer or the country to fall apart. I have since been completely calm about this Tuesday's results, because in so many ways, they effectively serve as representatives of their age and culture cohort, and I think a loooooot of people will think the same thing they did, when it comes time to actually cast their votes: Clinton is a terrible politician, but Trump is a terrible human being. (n.b.: I personally disagree with the former and am excited to cast my vote for the first female president.)
posted by LooseFilter at 9:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [137 favorites]


aabbbiee, that's totally the trend. Out of the last 50 calls I've made, precisely three people have picked up. I make notes about whose name is on the voicemail (So if the voters name is a man named Wendell and the voicemail is a lady saying her name is Susan, I put it in the box) I hope that information is helping someone somewhere.
posted by bilabial at 9:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


runs 10,000 simulations

and

Has anyone released an open-source implementation of the model?

My understanding is that part of the criticism of Silver's prognosticating is that he keeps his model private, so that you can't review what he's doing and understand it. Keeping it private makes it much harder for Silver to defend against accusations that he's making it as volatile as possible to drive pageviews and ad revenue. And as Sam Wang wrote today:
If you want an estimate that uses national polls, see The Upshot. I’m a little concerned that FiveThirtyEight’s code double-counts (i.e. overcounts) the swings in national and state polls. They’ve been a bit underconfident and volatile.
I'd also like to point out that Monte Carlo simulations are pretty mature and well-understood, and even a statistics non-expert like myself can run 10,000 simulations quite quickly in an Excel spreadsheet (although that relies on using Excel's, er, somewhat dubious random number generator). You just need data, an average, and standard deviation. The data in polls is problematic because you're relying on humans, who tend to have biases, and how Silver accounts for these biases is not known.

So basically, take fivethirtyeight with some salt. I'll be quite curious to see an analysis of Silver vs Wang after the election is done.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


The strategic problem with that argument is that it would have dragged Clinton onto Trump's territory in terms of things like trade policy, and given less focus to states whose demographics look more like the nation as a whole.

Right. I also feel like there's a lot of untapped energy that the candidates can draw on when they're regularly showing up in states that don't get a lot of love this late in the campaign. We hear all the time in these threads from Democratic voters in reddish states that there's a motivated volunteer and voter base that could turn those states purple if the candidates devoted more time to them. Now suddenly electoral circumstances make that a sensible strategic play -- anything she loses by not focusing enough on the usual swing states she can possibly gain and then some by winning just a couple of the states she's going on offense in. And it signals to those voters that the Democrats actually care about them, and, oh by the way, the underlying demographics are friendly to them even if the voter registration numbers or ultimate election day vote totals might not be.

I love this strategy. If it turns out it doesn't work, obviously I'll be devastated, but you have to count the potential upside of winning these red states or at least showing up strongly in them as you count the downside of possibly coughing up an easier win.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


"we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

Well, at least we know where McConnell stands on that whole "support-but-not-endorse" thing


Oh, didn't you know?

For Republicans in 2016, it's perfectly peachy to express verbal support, donate money, even actively campaign for a candidate; but so long as you don't explicitly, with your human mouth, say out loud the magic words "I endorse this candidate" it doesn't count as an endorsement.
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]


Clinton is a terrible politician, but Trump is a terrible human being.

Actually, I think Clinton is good at being a politician, but being good at politics often makes you kind of bad at other types of human interactions.

Case in point: My sister has, in the course of her career, had to work with both Gavin Newsom (former mayor of SF, now LT Gov of CA) and Kamala Harris (current CA AG, probable successor to Boxer's Senate seat). Her opinion of both of them is that they kind of suck as human beings: they're self-involved and duplicitous (and Newsom is practically a robot in his inability to connect on a personal level). She loathes Harris.

But she'll vote for both of them, because she thinks they're effective politicians and she agrees with their politics.
posted by suelac at 9:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]


with your human mouth

Since McConnell is an evil tortoise there is literally no chance of that.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Nate Silver suffering a Scott Adams-esque meltdown this year over being wrong about the rise of Trump, and the triumph of the Cubs is why Twitter deserves to continue to exist.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


...I saw the Beast buying a chili dog...

What was his jersey number?
posted by kingless at 9:56 AM on November 3, 2016



Nate Silver suffering a Scott Adams-esque meltdown


wow I think this is taking things a bit far.
posted by zutalors! at 9:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


...I saw the Beast buying a chili dog...

What was his jersey number?


538, apparently.
posted by Etrigan at 9:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


My understanding is that part of the criticism of Silver's prognosticating is that he keeps his model private
Someone told me today that there's enough public information about his model to reproduce it in principle. Not an expert in the field or anything, though.
posted by Coventry at 9:58 AM on November 3, 2016


Clinton is a terrible politician, but Trump is a terrible human being.

Seems the two thing I always end up reposting in election threads are the article about larger turnout and vote margins moving Dems left in policy, and this:

It’s time to admit Hillary Clinton is an extraordinarily talented politician

"It may not be impossible for a woman to win the presidency the way we are used to men doing it, but it is unlikely. The way a woman is likeliest to win will defy our expectations.

Perhaps that's why we don't appreciate Clinton's strengths as a candidate. She's winning a process that evolved to showcase stereotypically male traits using a stereotypically female strategy.

And it's working."
...

"Another way to look at the primary is that Clinton employed a less masculine strategy to win. She won the Democratic primary by spending years slowly, assiduously, building relationships with the entire Democratic Party. She relied on a more traditionally female approach to leadership: creating coalitions, finding common ground, and winning over allies. Today, 208 members of Congress have endorsed Clinton; only eight have endorsed Sanders.

This work is a grind — it's not big speeches, it doesn't come with wide applause, and it requires an emotional toughness most human beings can't summon.

But Clinton is arguably better at that than anyone in American politics today."
posted by chris24 at 9:59 AM on November 3, 2016 [87 favorites]


I love this strategy. If it turns out it doesn't work, obviously I'll be devastated, but you have to count the potential upside of winning these red states or at least showing up strongly in them as you count the downside of possibly coughing up an easier win.

And considering that, LooseFilter's marvelous story aside, much of Clinton's and Trump's support is already baked in, her campaign is probably also considering the impact rallying voters can give to down-ballot races.

Clinton's campaign may turn out to have chosen the wrong strategy, but as a political junkie from way back, I've admired their sheer professionalism. And I've considered Trump's amateurishness an insult to the American political process, and wondered why more politicians, pundits, and journalists don't share the same opinion, at least publicly.
posted by Gelatin at 9:59 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I saw the Beast buying a chili dog during the seventh-inning stretch.

His hair was perfect.


What rough bro, his hour come 'round at last, slouches towards Wrigleyville, &c.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 10:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]


I have Fanfare’d Detectorists Season 2. You may now return to your normal electoral overthinking.
posted by pharm at 10:01 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


Someone told me today that there's enough public information about his model to reproduce it in principle. Not an expert in the field or anything, though.

It's possible, but the thing that I keep seeing in his blog posts is (paraphrasing) "We made some tweaks to the model."
posted by Existential Dread at 10:03 AM on November 3, 2016


Well, as of yesterday over 700,000 people have voted early in Harris County, Texas, in person and by mail. This county is home to Houston and has the greatest number of registered voters in the state. Almost 32% of registered voters in the county have already voted. This county went blue both times for Obama. (Barely, in 2012, but still blue!) In the largest 16 counties, that's over 3.3 million early votes collected.

I'm not going to tempt the whatever from high atop the thing, but I'll join those who are choosing to be optimistic. Even if the state as a whole doesn't swing over this time, this could be good news for a lot of local races.

Still, I'm having to fight some serious fatigue. I just want this to be over already. I'm just so tired of seeing article after article stressing how unlikable Hillary is. She may be winning, but...Millenials don't like her! Black voters don't like her! Leftists don't like her! Women sort of like her - but only straight white women, except for the straight white women who despise her! White men fucking hate her! Whee! And that doesn't even take into account the vast right-wing Bannon-led monstrosity that has pretty much taken a blood oath to impede everything she does and seek impeachment if she is actually elected.

So no one likes her, and no one trusts her, and no one has any enthusiasm for her...except for somehow, she's been consistently ahead of her opponent since the start of the race, and no one can figure out how. Well, I guess it's just that Trump is *just* that awful. Except that she dominated the primary as well, which is pretty amazing for someone who apparently no one likes.

Someone posted this article in the previous thread, but I keep going back to read it to remind myself that there's plenty of enthusiasm for Clinton out there in a demographic that's pretty much treated as invisible: older women.

A Hillary Clinton secret: lots of voters really like her
A majority of the electorate finds Clinton dishonest and inauthentic. Clinton devotees see her as caring and truthful, her reputation the product of unfair, gendered criticism and caricature.

“I think a lot of people find her cold and aloof. I don’t find that at all when I watch her. I see a very warm soul,” said Jennifer Hajkowski, 41, a high school teacher at the Philadelphia rally.

Green, a former foster child, was still in high school, struggling to get by, when she began sympathizing with the first lady.

“She had to change her hair and take off her glasses and act this certain way, and it had to be hurtful and degrading for her, but she did it. Can you imagine being that person, though?” Green said. “ ‘Oh, I wasn’t pretty enough. I wasn’t wife-y enough. I had the wrong name. My glasses were thick. I wasn’t wearing fashionable clothes.’ How absolutely ridiculous. I don’t think guys understand what that’s like.”

Clinton, whose rally speeches can sound stilted, has struggled to excite the young voters who were thrilled by Obama’s gifts as a communicator. But for some women of her generation, both professionals and homemakers, her preference for quiet labour over grandiose performance is familiar.

Betsy True, 61, is a quiltmaker in Alexandria, Va., who had a previous career in computers at the defence department, a male-dominated workplace where her opinions were sometimes treated with sexist disdain. She said she admires how Clinton managed to work together in the Senate with people who voted to impeach her husband — and how she did not show off.

“She just did the work,” True said. “Put her head down, did the work.”
I keep thinking of those electoral maps showing what would happen if only men voted, and what would happen if only women voted. I think it is going to be those women who will save this country. They don't hold massive rallies or have breathless think pieces written about them in the media, but they are the ones who will propel Clinton to victory because they see in her someone to truly admire. They're used to being ignored, but they will make their voices heard at the voting booth.
posted by Salieri at 10:05 AM on November 3, 2016 [121 favorites]


Reading Amanda Marcotte's latest piece on Trump crystallized a few thoughts in my head and caused me to realize something: Trump is a Hutt.

He has a ceaseless appetite and constant demand for hollow and empty praise, delights in tormenting and humiliating others, eats food that is disgusting to normal humans (well done steaks, really?), and especially enjoys dominating and sexually humiliating women. He even hangs around with criminals, and runs a grift himself!

The short fingered hands make sense now, Hutts have very stubby fingers. Likewise the awful wig, Hutts have no hair.

Donald Trump is a Hutt.
posted by sotonohito at 10:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


Remember that time Trump gave a fake $1M bill to the chess club at the Bronx school where he was "Principal for a Day" and then ran a crazy lotto where buy new sneakers for some of the kids but not all of them? The American Federation of Teachers found the chess teacher, David MacEnulty, and asked him to write it up:
Recently, a lot has come out about Trump’s appeals to racist thought. From our interaction that day, I have to say, that part of his character has been in place for a long time.

The parents were dumbfounded. It was one of those horribly awkward moments. Mr. Trump then gave the parents two $100 bills.

Later, he met with our fifth-graders in the auditorium. We had 10 classes on a grade level. His big contribution to our school was that he would hold a lottery. He would take the winning class to the Nike store in Trump Tower to get new sneakers. His view of our students’ hopes and aspirations was clearly mired in a ghetto stereotype. As our (real) principal sardonically said later: “Why didn’t he just bring the watermelon?”

One would think that before accepting the role of educational leader, Trump would have sent someone out for a little background research. Clearly that did not happen. He was winging it all the way, and he was in an environment he simply did not understand. Nor, it appeared, did he care to.

There was a major disconnect between the person, the mission and the place. Recently, a lot has come out about Trump’s appeals to racist thought. From our interaction that day, I have to say, that part of his character has been in place for a long time. The amazing thing is, he thought he put on a great performance. The man is truly clueless.
The bio at the end says the award-winning teacher is now teaching at Dalton, which nicely sums up our education system in a nutshell.
posted by zachlipton at 10:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [44 favorites]


We need to cultivate a calm, steely, Clinton-esque resolve that, regardless of the crap that's going to be thrown, we will persevere.
When I saw those pics of Hillary celebrating the Cubs win all I could think was, "how can a candidate possibly enjoy a baseball game in the middle of this garbage fire of an election season?" The fact that I'm handwringing and rending garments while she takes a moment to enjoy sportsball is precisely why she even can be President. I wish I could steal just 1% of her ability to compartmentalize.
posted by xyzzy at 10:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


Couple people have already posted about the Nevada early voting returns. Here is a whole lot of tl;dr explaining exactly what that means and why it matters. Summary:

-Nevada regularly has 70% turnout in early voting, meaning that it is the easiest state to call based on early voting returns.

-Over 85% of the state’s voters live in two counties: Clark County (home of Las Vegas) and Washoe County (home of Reno).

-Conventional wisdom says that if, by the end of the early voting period, the Democrats can run up a lead of 50-60,000 votes in Clark County and keep it to a draw or slight disadvantage in Washoe County, then they have a lead which is basically insurmountable on election day. (Before election day, the party registration of voters is known, but not the way they voted.)

-As of today there is around a 50,000 vote Dem firewall in Clark County and a tiny lead in Washoe County, with half of the expected electorate having already voted.

-In summary: "Barring some absolute craziness, Nevada is very close to being locked up."

With Nevada, Clinton could lose all of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire and still win the election.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]


Remember that time Trump gave a fake $1M bill to the chess club at the Bronx school where he was "Principal for a Day" and then ran a crazy lotto where buy new sneakers for some of the kids but not all of them?

I had completely forgotten about this, and I suspect I might have made this comment before, but, wow, it's like Scott's Tots but real. And I thought that episode was implausibly cruel as fiction.
posted by cjelli at 10:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


I figure by Saturday or Sunday [Nate Silver] adjust the model they are using will move more and more into alignment with the other aggregators.
I would actually be truly shocked if Silver did this; it would essentially destroy his reputation. (I realize his rep is pretty tarnished ((hah hah get it tarnish? silver?)) hereabout but the media still eats him up) I expect he'll ride his model all the way through the election. Any adjustments will come after the 8th.
My layman's understanding is that Nate Silver's model amplifies uncertainty the further away from the election that you are. That doesn't explain his swinginess this week, but it's brilliant dramatically. In a mathematical way, it makes sure-thing elections look more competitive than they really are, then at the last minute it wipes out that distortion so he can claim he accurately predicted all those races.

What's missing is, accurately predicted them as of when? Give me all the poll data on November 7th, and I'll accurately predict 48 or more out of 50 states too. Let's see everybody's prediction a month or three before the election before we start anointing wizards.
posted by msalt at 10:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Trump is a Hutt
Indeed
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


It's possible, but the thing that I keep seeing in his blog posts is (paraphrasing) "We made some tweaks to the model."
Thanks. Good to know.
posted by Coventry at 10:15 AM on November 3, 2016


From a few threads ago: Supertrump - Brexit in America
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Nate Silver is kind of losing his mind right now...

Guys, we broke Nate.

"Definitely NOT the apocalypse coming or anything like that, why would you even think of such a thing lol hahahaha?"
posted by zarq at 10:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Remember that time Trump gave a fake $1M bill to the chess club at the Bronx school where he was "Principal for a Day"

The "Scott's Tots" episode of The Office come to life.
posted by acidic at 10:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


some states which I would pair together (in my mind) are so demographically different.

Start with geology. There are lots of places in Kentucky that look and feel like places in Tennessee, just in terms of the landscape, but there's nowhere in Kentucky like southwest Tennessee.

I also feel like there's a lot of untapped energy that the candidates can draw on when they're regularly showing up in states that don't get a lot of love this late in the campaign.

Take the crowd at ASU last night as an example. There are always risks in doing that: going to Atlanta would fire things up, but if it was ever on the schedule, it got scrubbed after Comey's intervention. But Brownstein's classification of NC as a "wants to win" state points to the weakness of the "defend the homeland" argument, especially given the state-specific mood and trends. Political "homelands" change. And a campaign focused on the future has to go to those places, even as election officials in NC show that the past isn't even past.
posted by holgate at 10:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Case in point: My sister has, in the course of her career, had to work with both Gavin Newsom (former mayor of SF, now LT Gov of CA) and Kamala Harris (current CA AG, probable successor to Boxer's Senate seat). Her opinion of both of them is that they kind of suck as human beings: they're self-involved and duplicitous (and Newsom is practically a robot in his inability to connect on a personal level). She loathes Harris.

But she'll vote for both of them, because she thinks they're effective politicians and she agrees with their politics.


Seattle's city council includes a socialist named Kshama Sawant (self-declared; I'm not name-calling here). She has gotten a lot of love and support from left-oriented folks. She pushes for great things like the $15 minimum wage, stood firm against handing over city funds for yet another goddamn stadium, etc. On that level, she's great.

She was a hardcore Bernie supporter in the primary, which was fine. Then she threw her voice behind Jill Stein after the primary, and that's when I lost all my respect for her. Like, completely.

Only then, after I was one of the few people in my large social circle to say anything negative about her, did one of my attorney friends (works for the city) lean over and confide in me that she's a horrible person in general. Tough to work with even when you're trying to cooperate and do something in her interests. His language was not kind, but it was telling how carefully he used it.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


The Atlantic article also says "Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three loosest bricks in the blue wall." I already linked to the HuffPost Pollster charts showing her leads in Michigan (+7.7) and Wisconsin (+6.1); she's also got a steady lead in Pennsylvania (+5.8).

With Nevada, Clinton could lose all of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire and still win the election.

She's also leading in Florida (+2.8), North Carolina (+2.2), and New Hampshire (+6.9). It's pretty close in Florida and North Carolina, but she's had a pretty steady lead in both.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm coming out of the closet as a Blue Texas Truther.

Join my sad tribe! I've been calling for a Blue Texas since 2008, although 2012 was some cold water on my hopes.

Although I have a real dilemma in that due to some unfortunate car trouble and related expenses I'm totally broke until Nov 9th and therefore can't lay in supplies of celebratory Tequila and queso. (TTTSC) I'll have to settle for saving the local beer in the fridge until then.
posted by threeturtles at 10:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]




She's also leading in Florida (+2.8), North Carolina (+2.2), and New Hampshire (+6.9). It's pretty close in Florida and North Carolina, but she's had a pretty steady lead in both.

NH I'm personally not worried about at all, but there were a couple of bad polls today that had some friends of mine freaked out, so I thought I'd add it. FL and NC (and sort of UT) are the only states where I'm not feeling essentially certain of the outcome at this point. In both states I expect a Clinton win (with UT as a three-way tossup) but I wouldn't put money on it (well, I did put money on NC months ago but I wouldn't put MORE.)

On the other hand, I recently put, yes, sorry mom, $100 on a Trump loss, to pay out at $145 if he loses.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


But she'll vote for both of them, because she thinks they're effective politicians and she agrees with their politics.

I think the shitty human truth that's most been at play this election is that there are a lot of people who will in fact cut off their nose to spite their face. What you're describing about your sister is sadly a lot rarer than it should be. People will frequently choose a candidate who is going to be demonstrably worse for them and the country, just so long as they don't have to suffer the indignity of voting for someone they find unlikable (for whatever reason, real or imagined) on a personal level.
posted by tocts at 10:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Per Nate Silver, a pretty good explanation of the logic behind 538:

Nate Silver's model gives Trump an unusually high chance of winning. Could he be right?
posted by Artw at 10:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


My dad is a decades-long lefty progressive: an environmentalist, feminist, socialist advocate for the poor and disenfranchised. Earlier this year, he and I both strongly supported Sanders' candidacy and chatted often about his policies, speeches, downticket support and how to volunteer for him.

After Sanders dropped out, I felt no choice but to start lukewarmly supporting Clinton and I'm happy to report that my support has increased somewhat since then, if for nothing else than for fear of what a Trump presidency would look like for me and mine. My dad, on the other hand, has spent the time posting increasingly kooky things to his Facebook page like lists of "the Clinton bodycount" and assorted conservative posts in support of Wikileaks and Jill Stein. Nothing pro-Trump, thank the gods, but they might as well be, especially considering some of the sources. Just this morning he posted something stating that although "Hillary trolls" and the "MSM" will say otherwise, voting for Hillary Clinton in lieu of Trump is to vote for a murderer in lieu of a child rapist.

Now, I haven't seen my dad in some time, but I'm going to be spending this whole weekend with him. I wish I could just tell him that if he cares about the women in his life (like me, his daughter) and their opinions, he'll promise not to do anything to get Trump elected. But in the past I've already had to talk him down (rather, shut him down completely) from freakin' chemtrails and I wasn't even emotionally invested in that!

I think I'm just going to button my lip and talk about the Cubs instead.
posted by theraflu at 10:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Democratic EV leads in Nevada are going to be very significant. The Clark firewall looks like it's in the 50-55k range which is pretty much game over for Trump and is likely to doom some of the Republicans down ballot.
posted by vuron at 10:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


So late to this thread, but in reading through the comments, I keep thinking about a psychological principle I learned about ages ago. That people, when challenged with cognitive dissonance, will double down and contort and justify their thinking in order to resolve it. That is, instead of changing their mind when faced with evidence, they'll become more resolute instead of changing.

I'm worried this is what is happening to Republicans. There are those (Kasich, Romney, the Bushes) who rejected Trumpism and wouldn't get on board. They don't worry me. Good on them. Then there are the Trump-solids, and they've been expounded on at length. They're vile people being allowed to be as vile as they can muster. Gross, deplorable, etc. But that's not what worries me either, because if no one had given the Alt-Right a national platform, they'd be slowly dwindling in the next few decades.

And that's the problem. The problem is that, through this election, through forcing people to toe the party line, they are recruiting. McCain worries me. Paul Ryan worries me. This mincing, posturing, dancing on the rim...I don't think they realize that they're not really doing that anymore. As they're fond of mentioning, this election is effectively a binary choice. And they chose Trump, and they have to justify that to themselves. They have to justify everything he brings with him, and everything he stands for. And--even if Hillary Clinton wins--I'm afraid they will.
posted by erinfern at 10:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


Last night, for the book to read before bathtime, the household preschooler requested "the girl who was first." When asked which book is that, we got the clarification, "the one about Clinton" -- which let to a scramble to find, amid the piles of picture books that is or former coffee table, Hillary Rodham Clinton: Some Girls Are Born to Lead.

The girl who was first, indeed. We surely hope so.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [70 favorites]


Tablet: Who Goes Trump?: "What ultimately determines support for the GOP nominee isn’t race, class, or political ideology. It’s character."
The above is adapted, in some places word-for-word, from a 75-year-old Harper’s essay titled “Who Goes Nazi?” Written by Dorothy Thompson, the first American journalist to be expelled from Nazi Germany, the article presents readers with the aforementioned “macabre parlor game” in which she secretly assesses which guests at a random social function might “go Nazi” given the proper political and social conditions. As Thompson keenly observed from her time in Germany, there was no single demographic “type” of Nazi supporter; workers and businessmen and intellectuals and landed gentry all backed Adolf Hitler’s political movement, just as workers and businessmen and intellectuals and landed gentry opposed it. There were even Jews, Thompson wrote, “who have repudiated their own ancestors in order to become “Honorary Aryans and Nazis.” Nazism, Thompson argues, “appeals to a certain type of mind,” not a rigid composite. As such, her article is a timeless analysis of the authoritarian mentality and makes for disturbingly relevant reading today.

Since Donald Trump declared his candidacy for president 16 months ago, it has become a lazy journalistic trope to attribute his rise to the economic travails of the white working class in an era of globalization. Contrary to popular conception, however, the median household income of a Trump primary voter is a healthy $72,000 a year, well above the $62,000 national average and higher than the median incomes of those who supported both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Meanwhile, 44 percent of Trump voters have college degrees, far more than the 29 percent of the general adult population. According to a Gallup working paper based upon interviews with some 87,000 Trump supporters over the past year, the most exhaustive statistical analysis of the Trump phenomenon completed thus far, “There appears to be no link whatsoever between exposure to trade competition and support for nationalist policies in America, as embodied by the Trump campaign.” The same study also found “little clear evidence that economic hardship predicts support for Trump, in that higher household incomes tend to predict higher Trump support.”
...
“Believe me, nice people don’t go Nazi,” Dorothy Thompson wrote. “Their race, color, creed, or social condition is not the criterion. It is something in them. Those who haven’t anything in them to tell them what they like and what they don’t—whether it is breeding, or happiness, or wisdom, or a code, however old-fashioned or however modern, go Nazi.” Trump supporters are people who, were he to become president, would explain away the mosque firebombing or Attorney General Chris Christie’s “opening up the libel laws” against The New York Times, just as passive Nazi voters looked away from the “Don’t buy from Jews” graffiti spray-painted on the neighborhood grocery store. These people are lacking “something in them,” a moral code, and their very large numbers are a troubling indicator of a rot in the American soul.
posted by zachlipton at 10:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [82 favorites]


The federal Office of Personnel Management subtweeted the FBI this morning.

@USOPM
If you're a #Fed, please know the restrictions of political activity under the #HatchAct
Overview of the Hatch Act
posted by chris24 at 10:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [60 favorites]


Maybe don't fret the narrowing polls too much. We're just regressing toward the mean.
I plotted the top two popular vote-getters in every U.S. presidential election since 1824, using data from The American Presidency Project. The top two contenders, typically a Democratic and a Republican, but occasionally a Whig, have danced closely around the 50-50 mark for nearly 100 years. Only four times since 1824 has the winner received more than 60 percent of the popular vote. Since 2000, the candidates have been separated by an average of 3.5 points. The median and average separations have been 8.2 and 9.5 points since 1824—a figure skewed upward due to a few outlying and not particularly close races. (The electoral tally doesn’t usually appear so close because the Electoral College tends to magnify differences in the popular vote.)
posted by notyou at 10:30 AM on November 3, 2016


The girl who was first, indeed. We surely hope so.

Man, everybody forgets about Grace.
posted by Etrigan at 10:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]




"Definitely NOT the apocalypse coming or anything like that, why would you even think of such a thing lol hahahaha?"

Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Naked Florida man wiring his groin! Mass hysteria!

Real wrath of God stuff.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this? I become enraged when people around me act like Hillary don't got this. I can't go there. All I know is, on the 8th? SHE WINS. Finally.
posted by agregoli at 10:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


@jameshohmann
20% of voters are college-educated white women. Romney won them by 6. Trump is losing them by 27 in our new poll:

The Daily 202: College-educated white women are Hillary Clinton’s firewall
posted by chris24 at 10:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


Donald Trump is a Hutt.

The comparison has been made
.

Also, too, I want to believe that Nate Silver is really skewing his own predictions to make sure that Clinton voters get out to the fucking polls.
posted by Halloween Jack at 10:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I become enraged when people around me act like Hillary don't got this.
Maybe I'm not in the group you're aiming this at, but I am not only terrified of Trumping winning the election, I'm also terrified of Hillary having to contend with R House and R Senate for any number of moments, much less years.

And indeed, it is possible that "Hillary don't got this" because she's depending on the American people. We don't have the best track record (I know, not the worst, either, let's not play that game) on several things - race issues of all kinds, women's rights, health care. Complacency is just about the worst thing for Hillary supporters to be engaging in, second to actively voting/advocating for Trump.
posted by bilabial at 10:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


We're just regressing toward the mean.

And they don't come meaner. Or more regressive.
posted by Grangousier at 10:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]


Don't lecture me about complacency. I never said I was complacent.
posted by agregoli at 10:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


On last night's show, Colbert played the Jew-S-A clip, starting with "a word of warning: if your children are in the room, you might want to regret having brought them into this world."
posted by zachlipton at 10:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [48 favorites]


Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this?

Yesterday afternoon I finally put a name to my daytime night terrors. It's the feeling of waiting to learn if the ugly mole if malignant or not.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


Everyone here deserves to share their feelings without being hectored that they are doing the worst thing. Especially since I didn't DO anything wrong except feel a certain way and share it.
posted by agregoli at 10:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


[One deleted, everybody's tense, let's not take it out on each other.]
posted by LobsterMitten at 10:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


With Icelanders nervously awaiting results of wrangling to form a coalition government, the leader of the centrist party Bright Future, who's also a musician, is preforming a concert later today with his punk band, Dr. Spock, as part of the Iceland Airwaves music festival. I think that's a great idea. The music festival is perfectly timed to take voters minds of things while the negotiations are underway. (There's no guarantee there will be a government by the time the festival is over, though. Coalition wrangling take a while.)

By the way, I know Kate Tempest has some fans here. She's performing tomorrow. KEXP will be live streaming (though it's during work hours for most people in the US).
posted by nangar at 10:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt. ("2016 Sucks")
From the same vendor, for $1 less, you can get "It's Always Taco Night Somewhere" (Don't the most people consider Tuesday Taco Night?)
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


So the essence of that Vox piece on Silver was that in his method the 14% undecided and third party voters could basically go either way so he leaves a wider range of possibilities to account for that, making it more likely for Trump to win or Clinton to landslide? Is that it? It would make all the froofrah over this stuff seem even sillier if so.
posted by gusottertrout at 10:45 AM on November 3, 2016


Well, his interpolation of national poles might be making things flakey too.
posted by Artw at 10:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Remember how Trump said “It's very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it”?

Both Campaigns Pay Themselves, But Trump Spends a Lot of Cash on Trump:

" Looking at the FEC data from July to October, it's clear that Trump’s self-payments fall outside the norm. We’re not talking about a Trump Tower taco bowl here and there. Trump uses campaign funds (which is to say, supporter donations) to do stuff like fly around in a Tag Air Boeing 757 with gold-plated seat belts. Trump is Tag Air’s CEO, and the campaign racks up a travel bill between $300,000 and $2 million per month. The campaign also spends thousands of dollars reimbursing Trump family members, over $180,000 a month on (unusually high) rent in Trump Tower and Trump Plaza."

This is of course the sort of thing that the media should be investigating and Congress holding hearings on after the election, but hey, e-mails!
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]


Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this? I become enraged when people around me act like Hillary don't got this. I can't go there. All I know is, on the 8th? SHE WINS. Finally.

There's a part of me that's like "Trump?! Nahhhh...." but then I panic. Not just because of the closer polls but also because of Brexit. Lots of people never thought Brexit would happen, and look at it now. And it's an effin' mess. So I can't allow myself to refuse to believe he could win.
posted by bananana at 10:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I have to say how much I am looking forward to next Wednesday, assuming the election is over by then. Although for North easterners, we probably only have a few weeks off until the NYC mayoral and New Jersey gubernatorial kick off. Maybe they'll hold off until January?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:52 AM on November 3, 2016


>Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this?

I refused to believe that Bush could win. Twice. I wil believe Trump can't win once he's actually lost. Nobody knows what's going to happen, and nobody will know, until it's happened.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 10:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [32 favorites]


Halloween Jack there needs to be a word for when you think you've gotten an idea only to discover that it's common knowledge. I bet there's one in German.
posted by sotonohito at 10:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


This is of course the sort of thing that the media should be investigating and Congress holding hearings on after the election, but hey, e-mails!

I was just looking at the upper left hand corner of the New York Times and coming here to say something quite similar. One wonders why nobody points this out where everyone hears it.
posted by Namlit at 10:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Just a thought, if you're in the USA and you are on overload with election news, comments et al. The clocks go back in, what, three nights time when Daylight Saving Time kicks in (most places). So that's three evenings left before an hour of end-of-day daylight is abruptly lost.

If you can e.g. work and time and mobility and weather permitting, maybe consider leaving the screens of election fire behind and doing some outdoor activity over some of those evenings (even better if you can do it in a place with no political lawn signs). It's a good time of the year to do so there, it'll be nice exercise and vitamin D top-up and clear the head time, and when you come back there will still be a few days - and evenings - left of pre-election stuff on the TV, Internet and other screens and places.
posted by Wordshore at 10:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


20% of voters are college-educated white women. Romney won them by 6. Trump is losing them by 27 in our new poll
Every 'drilling-down' poll I see shows Trump performing worse with various sub-populations (especially the growing ones). Where are his votes coming from? Are alt-right/deplorables suddenly the most motivated voting group ever?
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:59 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]




Well, his interpolation of national poles might be making things flakey too.

Can't we leave the Poles out of this?
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 11:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


WHOOPS that's a recording of his speech in Miami earlier ahhhh the Jacksonville one is later today
posted by everybody had matching towels at 11:00 AM on November 3, 2016


Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this?
Not me. I am pretty certain Clinton will win, but after the primaries I about 70% believed Trump would. It's amazing to me that the circular firing squad of the Republican primaries exposed so few of the weaknesses in Trump's character and history which have come out since. It's like no one knows how to do opposition research but the Clinton campaign.
posted by Coventry at 11:01 AM on November 3, 2016


Just a thought, if you're in the USA and you are on overload with election news, comments et al. The clocks go back in, what, three nights time when Daylight Saving Time kicks in (most places).

Thanks for reminding me that this dumpster fire gets an additional hour added to it.
posted by Etrigan at 11:01 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


FBI launches internal investigation into its own Twitter account
Candice Will, Assistant Director for the FBI’s Office of Professional Responsibility, said she was referring the matter to the FBI’s Inspection Division for an “investigation.” Upon completion of the investigation, the findings will be referred back to the the Office of Professional Responsibility for “adjudication.”
posted by zakur at 11:04 AM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]


~Hillary Clinton will be in Detroit tomorrow. ~
Wow, palindromic I would like to see Hillary in person, but I hate crowds.

I have done phonebanking, my names in the group are -Carrie and Sesha. Since my last round I have not been able to get the call tool to work. I created the second profile to see if would work. It did for one call session and stopped working, also. I did report my problem to the IT people but it's probably small potatoes at this point.

This is the first campaign I have volunteered for and it made me feel better about the election.

Thank you for your volunteer efforts, too.
posted by Gadgetenvy at 11:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


Can't we leave the Poles out of this?

Can we? One of the candidates is THIS CLOSE to using the phrase "annex the Sudetenland" at any given time.
posted by delfin at 11:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


Can't we leave the Poles out of this?

they're still pretty touchy about that time kerry forgot poland
posted by entropicamericana at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Well, his interpolation of national poles might be making things flakey too.
Well, you can't say "You forgot Poland".
jinx
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


oneswellfoop: An example of Simpson's Paradox, maybe? Hopefully not?
posted by Turd Ferguson at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016


Sudetenland is Czech, silly.
posted by Coventry at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Where are his votes coming from? Are alt-right/deplorables suddenly the most motivated voting group ever?

According to the comments on my local news website, yes. Pretty much exactly. They're talking a big talk, but it's along the (actually pretty plausible) lines of their support for Romney being lukewarm, so they didn't turn out; Trump, however, gets 'em all fired up, and they really REALLY hate his opponent, so they're turning out extra for this one.

I really want to find comfort in the state-by-state comparisons against Mitt Romney in '12, but this idea didn't occur to me until today and tbh it freaks me out.
posted by witchen at 11:08 AM on November 3, 2016


Probably what's most concerning to me at this point is the information bubble so many Trump supporters are in. Like they ONLY listen to what Trump and the alt-right say, to the point where they seem to think he's the greatest, most amazing possible candidate (even his flaws, like the horrible things he's said and done, are somehow made to be positive traits) while Clinton is, with no exaggeration, the most corrupt politician to ever run for President. Like, how is that even possible? She is literally THE WORST CANDIDATE EVER?? Come on.

Even Clinton's most fervent supporters are generally aware that she's not perfect. She's a human being. She's made some mistakes. But at least she's spent her life trying to work for the greater good and to serve things bigger than herself and her family name. And they call the mainstream media biased, but hey - somehow the people who pay attention to it manage to be aware of both candidates' faults.
posted by bananana at 11:09 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


It's like no one knows how to do opposition research but the Clinton campaign.

What opposition research has the Clinton campaign actually done, though? Most of the dirt on Trump is either stuff that's been public record since forever, scandals unearthed through investigative journalism, or the proceedings of ongoing lawsuits. Clinton has been very effective in terms of her messaging and capitalizing on new scandals as they erupt, but what has her campaign told us about Trump that wasn't already known? Even the Alicia Machado thing was more of an old scandal that Clinton got Trump to reignite rather than anything new.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 11:11 AM on November 3, 2016


I think 538 is less useful this year because the data it uses to make its predictions has been too volatile and noisy. The public polls appear to be struggling to come up with a good likely voter screen as evidenced by the high volatility in their expectations of who will vote.
posted by humanfont at 11:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


My dad, on the other hand, has spent the time posting increasingly kooky things to his Facebook page like lists of 'the Clinton bodycount'

The main reason I'm for her is she's really, really good at murder.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [103 favorites]


So everyone should really calm down.

I know we've been burned before and getting your hopes up only to have soul crushing disappointment is a really horrible thing but with 5 days left just make sure you vote. Thats honestly all thats left at this point. I've worked on campaigns before, like a paid insider position, and basically all the publicly available information is shit. So 538 doesn't really know anything especially so close to the election. Everything gets crazy in the last few weeks, with everyone throwing so much shit at each other and all the voters getting so tired of the process that they refuse to accept calls. But the campaigns internal data is super specific and highly reliable. And its based on how someone will probably vote and if they have already voted or not. Yeah, the campaigns know if you have already voted. That means in states with early voting, campaigns know way before election day what the result will be. In states without early voting they know exactly who to target resources at to ensure all the votes they need are counted. Look at some stories from the campaign staff for McCain in '08, everyone knew they were doomed in September. It's been pretty much the same thing with Trump's guys this time around.

And what convinces me even more is the blatant refusal by the Republicans and the Trump campaign to invest in an actual campaign. Yeah, TV ads and media time is great. But canvassers and phonebankers, starting in the primary campaign (which is one reason a long and grinding primary is actually a plus) collect data on voters for the campaign and then follow up on it later for the general election and ensure that all those people vote again. You know that saying about how you need to remind someone 7 times before they don't forget? That's why campaigns keep calling and calling and calling. Trump has clearly not invested in this. The last article I read said that Clinton was outmanning him something like 5:1 in paid staff. And that doesn't even count volunteers. The Republican party as a political culture is sort of... against it? I dunno. I am sure the political operatives know how useful it is, but most of the activists and candidates see it as some form of "community organizing" like ACORN or what our communist president does.

If you really want to know whats going on with the campaigns check the candidates travel schedules and the schedules of their biggest surrogates. Then you can see what areas they think are the most important. Try to compare with what states they would be "defending" or "attacking" compared to whats neccessary for 270 EV. In our case Clinton, Kaine, Biden, and the Obamas have been almost 100% attacking this campaign. I would say they have been hyper aggressive, and probably know something we don't. They know the Presidential race is in the bag, but want to win downticket races and expand the map for future races by registering voters in places like Arizona, Texas, and Georgia. If they have been "defending" it's been in swing states like Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio which Clinton doesn't even need to win necessarily. Where they aren't going nearly at all is places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Michigan.

After all this my prediction is

CLINTON 358
TRUMP 174
MCMULLIN 6

VOTE!
posted by Glibpaxman at 11:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [99 favorites]


Sudetenland is Czech, silly.

That's not what I've been hearing from Trump supporters.
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


Rokusan: I made a pilgrimage back to the homeland to see LMM during the last week of his run, a birthday surprise for my best girl and all... but, yeah. Worth it. Very worth it. The last time a play made me say "wow" when the lights came up was... heck, maybe JCM's original Hedwig?
I strongly recommend Taylor Mac's new play HIR, finishing up a run at Defunkt Theatre in Portland but roaming around the country. (Australia next year). Edgy, funny, deep look at gender roles, sexism and trans-everything. NYT: "audacious and uproarious black comedy"
posted by msalt at 11:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


What opposition research has the Clinton campaign actually done, though?
I tend to assume that the ultimate source of most negative news about Trump is the Clinton campaign and its surrogates. Not to RLTP or anything, but that's certainly how it worked with Bernie, where we know from the email leaks that the Clinton campaign was doing extensive oppo research. It's widely assumed that the corresponding emails on Trump have not been released because the source favors Trump. YMMV, though.
posted by Coventry at 11:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I'm not really worried at all (to the point where people keep posting on my Facebook wall requesting info on early voting statistics or what-have-you because they know how closely I'm following the race and how basically confident I am in the outcome).

But! I am on some new medication which is giving me more memorable dreams than I normally have, and in the past week I have had two oddly similar ones: in the first, a school full of white-faced vampire creatures who sit perfectly still until the moment you set eyes on them, at which point they shamble over and steal your life-force; and the second, an invasive plant alien which overgrows entire planets like kudzu and turns the few surviving inhabitants into mindless servants. Both times I woke up in the middle of the night half-thinking that the monsters in these dreams were coming for me, which hasn't happened to me in years.

I WONDER IF THESE DREAMS ARE IN ANY WAY RELATED TO THE ELECTION
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]




What Glibpaxman just said, 100%. Do GOTV and donate, but most importantly vote.

Also, due to the way Silver's model works, he's incorporating polls that have far worse data than stable and predictive earlier polls! This close to the big day, people don't have the time, the money, or the inclination to do high quality polls. The polls that we ARE getting have any number of methodological flaws that distort their results. The ACTUAL data (EV numbers) is extremely good for Clinton. It's not in the bag, but refreshing a flawed, poorly developed 538 model that's ONLY GETTING WORSE BECAUSE IT'S ONLY TAKING IN WORSE DATA is a good way to give yourself an unearned ulcer.

Vote. GOTV. Donate. Don't worry yourself sick.
posted by codacorolla at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


The main reason I'm for her is she's really, really good at murder.

The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing...
posted by Talez at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]


Clinton has been very effective in terms of her messaging and capitalizing on new scandals as they erupt, but what has her campaign told us about Trump that wasn't already known? Even the Alicia Machado thing was more of an old scandal that Clinton got Trump to reignite rather than anything new.

But that's been part of the brilliance of her campaign messaging, as far as I'm concerned. She doesn't need elaborate or obscure negative advertising, she just shows Trump speaking. And then Trump complains about her nasty negative ads, when they're nothing but showing him saying things.

She doesn't have to define Trump; she's letting Trump define Trump. And as part of that, she's set some clever and obvious traps, like the Machado one, that Trump isn't disciplined enough to avoid, proving even further how unfit he is.
posted by Gelatin at 11:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing...

No, man, you don't get it. YOU DON'T KNOW HOW DEEP THIS GOES
posted by Mayor West at 11:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Here is another comforting thing: Nevada early voting looks really really good for Clinton. Nate has said that if the 538 model was run with Nevada in the safe win column for Clinton, she has a 90%+ chance of winning by their model. So let's not panic just yet.
posted by peacheater at 11:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


Both times I woke up in the middle of the night half-thinking that the monsters in these dreams were coming for me, which hasn't happened to me in years.

I had a dream last night that I was eating a supermarket bagel. It was awful.

So, see, everybody is having nightmares.
posted by uncleozzy at 11:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


So at what point after the polls show that we have legalized mj would we be able to take advantage.

By all accounts it's very easy to get a medical marijuana card in Cali, and it won't be hard to demonstrate stress that needs medicating.

If that doesn't work for you, come visit Oregon! We're ahead of you on this one, and right next door. While you're here, check out our vote by mail and motor voter registration system -- it's working great!
posted by msalt at 11:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Of course, now that it looks like Trump has an outside chance of winning, the fetid slime in congress is slopping in line behind the nominee. As if you needed more of an indication how rotten this party is, and more of an indication of just how cowardly and devoid of principle the leadership is. What bullshit about how he doesn't represent the party.

For half a century, in order to keep their hands in everyone's pockets, the GOP brass have deliberately pursued a strategy of manipulative identity politics centered around stoking racial hatred, enforcing gender hierarchy, pandering to religious intolerance, eroding respect for civic institutions and promoting militaristic nationalism as the only acceptable form of patriotism. Who would have thunk it, that this is the kind of ideology that breeds fascists? And now these same weasels want to disown the base, now that they turn out to be Nazis. Republicans made this. Republicans own this. The GOP is now unmistakably the party of American fascism.

So it's only fitting that the party "leadership" is sheepishly lining up behind the avatar of the monster they thought they could control. It doesn't matter that Trump is an incompetent, emotionally unstable con artist and child molester in hock to the Russian mob and/or deep state. He is the channel for the rage of the base, and if that's their route to power, they are craven enough to take it.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 11:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]


in the first, a school full of white-faced vampire creatures who sit perfectly still until the moment you set eyes on them, at which point they shamble over and steal your life-force

Just lock them in a room with some Weeping Angels. Easy-peasy.

We've discussed much how Trump's fragile ego, like his small hands, drive much of his insecurity. When he loses on Tuesday, I wonder if the fact that Clinton didn't have to spread lies about him but simply show the voters Trump talking in order to make them reject him will prove especially galling.
posted by Gelatin at 11:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Glibpaxman, from your lips to Justinian's ears.
posted by gwint at 11:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


The GOP is now unmistakably the party of American fascism.

Again I am reminded of Jonah Goldberg's little book that was a feeble attempt to claim that, nuh-uh, it's liberals who are the real fascists, and I grin.
posted by Gelatin at 11:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing.

Oh man you are so bad at anatomy. People breathe with their noses
posted by beerperson at 11:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


I'm not having nightmares but I am waking several times a night which is not usually my thing. I blame the election.

I soothe myself by remembering that St. Arnold Christmas Ale, my favorite of their ales, is now in stores and I get to have one again on election night.
posted by emjaybee at 11:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing.

I don't think "that Weiner" is appropriate language to refer to the FBI director.
posted by 0xFCAF at 11:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [51 favorites]


guys, i've posted much of this before, but i just want to share it for people who need good news:

i'm a former #neverhillary guy back when she first announced she was running again. i was a big (yooge) bernie supporter when he threw his hat in the ring, having first heard of him many years ago here on mefi. i donated to his campaign, the first i have ever donated to since i first started voting in 1992.

when it became clear he lost the nom, i decided i simply would not vote for the presidential ticket because i living a very blue state and it was safe because i thought both of the major party nominees were deplorable. i was never a hillary basher in the 1990s, i thought she was unfairly maligned. it was the stuff afterwards that made me dislike her: the votes for the war, the patriot act, dismissing obama, chumming it up with wall street.

it has since become clear to me that the two candidates are not even remotely equal and while hillary is not perfect, i remain cautiously optimistic about a hillary presidency, particularly if we give her a blue senate. it has also become clear that trump is even more deplorable than i previously thought (and believe me, i've always thought he was slime) and the republic would not survive a trump administration

i happily cast a straight democratic ballot earlier this week (including hillary for prez) and what's more, i donated to hillary's campaign today. i am not complacent about her winning, but i am optimistic. she's got this.

so take a few deep breaths, have a taco, have your favorite beverage, whether it's an ice cold IPA or a pumpkin spice latte or rotgut whiskey. vote early if you can. vote often if you can (just kidding, don't do that, it would be wrong), donate if you can. volunteer if you live in a state that is not a sure thing. but do not panic.

and look forward to another 8 years of kate mckinnon in pantsuits on snl.
posted by entropicamericana at 11:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [100 favorites]




Again I am reminded of Jonah Goldberg's little book that was a feeble attempt to claim that, nuh-uh, it's liberals who are the real fascists, and I grin.

This is why I have so little sympathy for people like him and Ben Shapiro moaning about the hatred targeted against them. I mean, you have dedicated your entire career to a political party that promotes racism, misogyny and worship of violence as civic virtues, and denigrates civic institutions and tolerance of other cultures, and now you have a sad when your followers turn on you cause surprise, Nazis aren't too fond of Jews, you stupid assholes.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 11:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say

Unsurprising, if depressing. What is it with law enforcement types and fascism?
posted by leotrotsky at 11:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]



'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say


EXTRY EXTRY READ ALL ABOUT IT! Authoritarians All In for Fellow Authoritarian! Shocking News, Said Nobody Ever!
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


What is it with law enforcement types and fascism?

Job security.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


the whole "i'm moving to canada" thing is so weird to me bc like. Did U Kno? there are 33 other countries to our south with socialized medicine and better weather.
posted by poffin boffin at 11:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [56 favorites]


>we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America

Will his first Executive Order be to assume the identity of the Koch brothers, then?


This has put some kind of bizarre Highlander scenario in my head and I would like to thank you for that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


I'm not having nightmares but I am waking several times a night which is not usually my thing. I blame the election.

This made more sense when I first misread it as "erection".
posted by rocket88 at 11:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


From Roger Stone's: "The Clintons' War on Women."
"There are widespread claims that the Clintons are responsible for the death of as many as eighty-three people whose knowledge stood in the way of political ascent. Based on our investigation, the Clintons are only plausibly responsible for the deaths of half of the people on this list."
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:41 AM on November 3, 2016


Paula Chertok: Trump’s Orwellian “Rigged” Campaign Is Straight Out of Putin’s Propaganda Playbook
People are sucked into Trump’s disinformation swamp through a variety of linguistic techniques, aimed to elevate emotional responses. You will be angry whether you buy into Trump’s conspiracies or see through them. … This outrage factor is psychologically exciting, agitating our human brains. Again, we can’t avoid this psychological effect. Trump’s language either pulls us in or reviles us, but the high level of emotion and agitation is common to all his listeners at the end of the day.
posted by Kabanos at 11:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I'm not having nightmares but I am waking several times a night which is not usually my thing. I blame the election.

I said it in a thread two weeks ago or so, I'll say it again - if my old recurring nightmares about nuclear war come back between now and Tuesday I will develop the ability to teleport myself to Trump's presence through sheer will and I will punch him in the dick.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


speaking of erections
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


My girlfriend keeps getting voicemails from the Trump camp and stacks of election junk mail cards swearing that [non-Republican candidates] are all sorts of evil. Now the voter intimidation junk mail is starting with the voter report card stuff. This election needs to end. It's dragged on far too long and the mental sewage it's gushed all over the national discourse has poisoned so much.
posted by Servo5678 at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I said it in a thread two weeks ago or so, I'll say it again - if my old recurring nightmares about nuclear war come back between now and Tuesday I will develop the ability to teleport myself to Trump's presence through sheer will and I will punch him in the dick.

Don't dick punch. Vote!
posted by Talez at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


A partisan FBI actively engaged in politics five days before an election. This is fine!
posted by diogenes at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]


Saw a car on my way to work with MY CAT IS A DEMOCRAT bumper sticker.

DemoCAT, surely. I mean come on let's at least TRY people.
posted by freecellwizard at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say

I have a friend who worked for several years in one of their field offices doing analysis. Dude's portrait of the culture is that there is a minority of agents that are really, really good guys who are trying to protect people, some of whom are literally damaging their own mental health chasing down child pornographers and pedophiles to keep kids safe. But the majority, he said, are dong-swanging alpha bro hardline conservatives. Like wish-it-was-1955, three-martini-lunches people. The only surprising thing to me about their latest moves is how much of it they're doing out in the open. I figured they'd have a better self-preservation instinct than that, but they may think they're bulletproof, who knows.
posted by middleclasstool at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [43 favorites]



DemoCAT, surely. I mean come on let's at least TRY people.


You are wrong it's Demeowcrat
posted by zutalors! at 11:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


But the majority, he said, are dong-swanging alpha bro hardline conservatives. Like wish-it-was-1955, three-martini-lunches people.

That's what you get when you disqualify everyone who has ever smoked weed I guess
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [72 favorites]


entropicamericana, I have almost exactly the same history and thinking!
posted by Coventry at 11:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


And the FBI is getting its intel from Bannon. No problem there!
posted by diogenes at 11:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


The IRS's Commendable Silence In The Presidential Campaign [forbes]
Unlike the FBI, the IRS has drawn a bright line against any disclosure of any kind, and stuck with it. By doing so, the IRS has stayed out of the campaign muck.

It has come to this: The FBI, treated for decades as a paragon of bureaucratic virtue, is up to its neck in the swamp of electoral politics, thanks largely to its own doing. The IRS, subject of never-ending criticism from both political parties for bureaucratic fumbling, has been a model of responsibility and rectitude. For once, I’d rather be the IRS.
I'll add also that the IRS has a higher percentage of women and POC senior executive service employees than the government as a whole. PDF See also this NYT article from October on the FBI's lack of women and POC agents.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [81 favorites]


eats food that is disgusting to normal humans (well done steaks, really?

WHAT? I mean, I knew the man was despicable, but WELL DONE STEAKS? Quick, someone publicize this! I think I see a way we can win Texas.
posted by threeturtles at 11:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


Reagan also liked his steak well done. Clearly the GOP has become the party of expensive, overcooked leather.
posted by stet at 11:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


'The FBI is Trumpland'
The FBI was originally established to fight Organized Crime - the Mob. And now they are working in service of the only Presidential Candidate with verified Mob connections. (Of course, if they'd done their jobs long ago, Dirty Donald and his New Jersey mob pals would've been in jail) Even J. Edgar would be ashamed.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Where are his votes coming from?

Non-college white men. There are still a lot of them.

The Nevada early voting numbers are reliant on registration rather than actual preference, so they don't catch crossovers, but it suggests something's off with the ongoing polling. That's not an unskew: Nevada has long had a public-polling R+ lean (across multiple pollsters) and the question after every election is whether it's strictly a Nevada thing -- high population mobility in and out of state, hard to contact casino/entz workers on evening shifts, etc. -- or whether there are deeper problems with sampling southwestern Hispanic voters that might extend to somewhere like Arizona.
posted by holgate at 11:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Maybe the proud election-thread-clobbering peoples here can add “THREADS” with a wash-proof sharpie to the I SURVIVED THE 2016 ELECTION shirt
posted by farlukar at 11:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Today in "Soren Lorensen Visits The Library Where The Trump Table Is" (I swear to god I'm not doing this on purpose, it's just in a really central location on campus!):

Their banner reads YOUTH FOR TRUMP.

Not "STUDENTS FOR TRUMP" or "YOUNG REPUBLICANS FOR TRUMP" but literally the most simultaneously awkward and Godwinny-dogwhistly phrase possible.

Seriously, guys: youth? Really?
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]


> What is it with law enforcement types and fascism?

Oversimplified, but law enforcement deals a lot with the letter of the law rather than the spirit, and they're not lawyers. Most of them don't ever want to be lawyers. So it's seen as total bullshit when you do all this hard work in order to catch the bad guy, but it's thrown out because they weren't Mirandized, or some other legal "trickery".
posted by fragmede at 11:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I would wear the shit out of a I SURVIVED THE 2016 MEFI ELECTION THREADS shirt.
posted by joyceanmachine at 11:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]


Seriously, guys: youth? Really?

You'd prefer Trumpjugend?
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 11:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


Law enforcement types are overwhelmingly white and male.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]




Anybody catch that Lena dunham rap video? I'm sure that'll bring out the millennials to the polls.

Please promise me this is a joke.
posted by msalt at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Seriously, guys: youth? Really?

I can't help but hear this in the voice of Joe Pesci from My Cousin Vinnie. Yute.

posted by Atom Eyes at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


You'd prefer Trumpjugend?

How about "Orange Shirts"?
posted by Mayor West at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


This was posted a few threads ago, but I think it's relevant enough to share again.

Vox: Why women are still voting for Trump, despite his misogyny
The role of sex and gender in this election extends beyond Donald Trump’s personal history and the media’s excessive scrutiny of Hillary Clinton’s voice. Trump’s ethno-nationalist populism reflects anxieties over the changing role of women and men in society against a backdrop of harrowing economic crisis and demographic change that will soon make the United States a majority-minority country.

As Stephanie Coontz argues, the upheavals are all interrelated. Economic precarity promotes the scapegoating of women and people of color while the divergent fortunes of poor and affluent families foster distrust and anger over the rising stature of women. Coontz, a longtime observer of changing gender relations through a political economic lens, teaches history and family studies at the Evergreen State College. She is the author of multiple books, including A Strange Stirring: The Feminine Mystique and American Women at the Dawn of the 1960s, Marriage, a History, and The Way We Never Were.
This interview really helped my understanding of why people are voting for Trump.
posted by ZeusHumms at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]






From the unsurprising headlines department, NYT: Donald Trump’s Income Isn’t Always What He Says It Is, Records Suggest, focusing on how his financial disclosure forms overstate his income by showing gross revenue, excluding often significant expenses:
The records demonstrate that large portions of those numbers represent cash coming into his businesses before covering costs like mortgage payments, payroll and maintenance. After expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on his disclosure forms, or actually lose money.

In fact, it is virtually impossible to determine from the forms just how much he is earning in any year.

Mr. Trump appears to have used a provision in federal ethics laws that allows business owners to list gross revenue, as opposed to net income after expenses, on their disclosure forms. But he does not seem to have completely acknowledged that choice. Rather, he has suggested that the figures on the form represent money in his pocket.

In news releases, the Trump campaign said that “Mr. Trump’s income” listed in a disclosure form filed last year was $362 million, and was more than $557 million in a form filed this year. During the debate with Mrs. Clinton in September, he mentioned an even larger figure.

“It shows income … in fact, the income — I just looked today — the income is filed at $694 million for this past year, $694 million,” Mr. Trump said. “If you would have told me I was going to make that 15 or 20 years ago, I would have been very surprised.”
In short, he lists income of millions of dollars from a business on his disclosure forms, but then files property tax appeals showing that same business lost money or barely broke even after expenses, but publicly brags about the big number.
posted by zachlipton at 12:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Trumpjugend would at least have the virtue of being more honest.
posted by Archelaus at 12:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Seth Meyers nails it on A Closer Look:
[A lot of Americans] just don't love the two choices. I mean, do you pick someone who's under federal investigation for using a private email server, or do you pick someone who called Mexicans rapists, claimed the president was born in Kenya, proposed banning an entire religion from entering the US, mocked a disabled reporter, said John McCain wasn't a war hero because he was captured, attacked the parents of a fallen soldier, bragged about committing sexual assault, was accused by 12 women of committing sexual assault, said some of those women weren't attractive enough for him to sexually assault, said more countries should get nukes, said he'd force the military to commit war crimes, said a judge was biased because his parents were Mexican, said women should be punished for having abortions, incited violence at his rallies, called global warming a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese, called for his opponent to be jailed, declared bankruptcy six times, bragged about not paying income taxes, stiffed his contractors and employees, lost a billion dollars in one year, scammed customers at his fake university, bought a six foot tall painting of himself with money from his fake foundation, has a trial for fraud coming up in November, insulted an opponent's looks, insulted an opponent's wife's looks, and bragged about grabbing women by the pussy. How do you choose?
posted by kirkaracha at 12:03 PM on November 3, 2016 [128 favorites]


This is kind of a funny article from the guy who bought the domain trump.org

WaPo link
posted by waitangi at 12:03 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


The Economist enthusiastically endorses Clinton
"In another way, she is well-suited to the task. Herding bills through Congress to the point of signing requires a tolerance for patient negotiating and a command of sleep-inducing detail. Though it has been hard to hear above the demand to “lock her up”, Mrs Clinton has campaigned for an open, optimistic country. She can take heart from the fact that, outside Washington, there is more bipartisanship and problem-solving than most Americans realise, and from the fact that popular pessimism has far overshot reality. Around 80% of Trump supporters say that, for people like them, America is worse than it was 50 years ago. That is false: half a century ago 6m households lacked a flushing lavatory. It is also a most un-American way to see the world. The time is ripe for a rebound."
Excellent.
posted by zarq at 12:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [58 favorites]


So like a lot of things about him, Trump's publicly-claimed income is gross.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


Melania just plagiarized Trump's second wife Marla Maples. Here's the only Google results for "if you could dream it, you could become it"

who plagiarized frank-n-furter: "Don't dream it, be it."
posted by j_curiouser at 12:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


Don't dick punch. Vote!

I can only hear this in Obama's serious tone of voice.
posted by Taft at 12:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


Don't dick punch. Vote!

Surely, "Don't dick punch, ballot punch!"
posted by Mayor West at 12:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


who plagiarized frank-n-furter: "Don't dream it, be it."

"In just seven days, we can make the president a wo-o-o-o-man."

(So the math is off by one day—sue me!)
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:14 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]


Their banner reads YOUTH FOR TRUMP.

"For" in the Molochian sense? YOUTH FOR THE YOUTH GOD!!

(No, wait. That's Peter Thiel.)
posted by octobersurprise at 12:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


As unlikely as it seems, maybe a lot of good will come out of this FBI leak nonsense. Maybe being personally targeted by the bloated, out of control National Security State will galvanize a President Clinton into finally moving to reign in this monster that's been growing since 9/11. I know at the very least that the FBI's going to have an unpleasant couple of years, and if Hillary has any guts (and I think she does) there's going to be a massive purge there.
posted by indubitable at 12:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


The most recent This American Life episode dives deep into how and why islamophobia and anti-immigration became the main plank of the Republican Party. It predates Trump obviously. They use St. Cloud MN as an example of a place where simple fear of the other locally get stoked by operatives of a national movement of Tea Party afflilated hate groups who provide all this false info under the guise of a think tank. It can be a little heavy on the Hugs For Facists but the quotes from these regular people expressing really amazingly dumb views is eye opening.

Of course this being TAL you have to skip through a bunch of horrifically unfunny musical theater about Paul Ryan to get to the good reporting. Thanks 2016!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Well I just heard from my delightful, (and I mean it,) other Utah family. The military line about why they voted McNuggets, rather than Hillary, is that if workers out at Hill Air Force Base used private email, they would be in jail. I mentioned Rumsfeld/Cheney, Rice, Powell using this and that it apparently is how it was done for several administrations. I also mentioned it was used more than Hillary, and the deleted emails were in the millions, and yeah, they voted the line that came closest to their personal experience.
posted by Oyéah at 12:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I can't vote in your election so I'll handle the dick punching

we've got a brand new dance it's called punch his ass right in the dick
posted by mannequito at 12:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]


Fixed: "In just seven days, AND SEVEN NIGHTS! we can make the president a wo-o-o-o-man."

Dig it if you can!
posted by Gelatin at 12:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Is this good? This sounds good.

@RobbyMook
Huge news! More early votes have now been cast in Florida than in all of 2012.
posted by chris24 at 12:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]


@steveschale
Yesterday in Florida: Largest number of Black voters (African American & Caribbean voters of any day so far. Roughly 55k. Share up to 12%
posted by chris24 at 12:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [26 favorites]


Is this good? This sounds good.

I think at last count 30% of Latin@ early voters in Florida were first-time voters so, yes
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:21 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


Did U Kno? there are 33 other countries to our south with socialized medicine and better weather.
I pretty much already live in Canada (go Central New York!) where everyone has a slightly nasally accent with flat As, so it would basically be like moving in with a slightly more extreme version of my people.
posted by xyzzy at 12:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


This is kind of a funny article from the guy who bought the domain trump.org

After he rebuffed the initial lawyer attack:
Less than a year later, the domain name Trump.tv went up for sale via public auction, too. I also purchased that domain, this time for only $251, and redirected it to point to Trump.org.
Way to go, Trump organization.
posted by Dr Dracator at 12:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Maybe being personally targeted by the bloated, out of control National Security State will galvanize a President Clinton into finally moving to reign in this monster that's been growing since 9/11. I know at the very least that the FBI's going to have an unpleasant couple of years, and if Hillary has any guts (and I think she does) there's going to be a massive purge there.
Very unlikely. That's not how you get things done -- personal vendettas are more of a Trump characteristic. Also, fixing broken institutional culture is much harder than "round up all the bad guys and purge them." Open opponents get hard to find when you announce it's open season on them. Every President since Eisenhower has been bitterly disappointed in the performance of the CIA (at least through the period covered by Legacy of Ashes, which was published in 2008), but none of them could fix it.
posted by Coventry at 12:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


TRUMPMOTELS.COM

(also call the phone number)
posted by emjaybee at 12:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


@RobbyMook
Huge news! More early votes have now been cast in Florida than in all of 2012.

@steveschale
Yesterday in Florida: Largest number of Black voters (African American & Caribbean voters of any day so far. Roughly 55k. Share up to 12%


Y'all, remember how the battle looks hopeless but then you remember to look to the east and you see Gandalf striding onto the battlefield on Shadowfax, fucking shit up old school? Maybe this is like that, and we the people are fuckin' GANDALF. Believe.
posted by duffell at 12:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [87 favorites]


can we rein in the NSA too while we're at it or is that too much to ask
posted by stolyarova at 12:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


I just want to beg everyone who isn't actually a Stalinist to stop muttering about Hillary "purging" the FBI and anywhere else of those who have wronged her. It's not a great look. Let's stick to politics rather than authoritarian fantasies, in my humble opinion.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


and we the people are fuckin' GANDALF.

Turns out eagles can vote.
posted by drezdn at 12:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


I can't vote in your election so I'll handle the dick punching

we've got a brand new dance it's called punch his ass right in the dick


New theme song of the thread, courtesy of MeFi's Own mediocre.
posted by Strange Interlude at 12:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


We also know eagles don't like Trump at all. I suspect it's the stench of Mordor on him.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


Man these Project Veritas videos are so incredibly dumb. There's a new one out that's at the top of reddit that has the Donald supporters frothing which records a staffer in Deborah Ross' (D Sen NC) campaign admitting that it was one of their trackers who got the audio of Burr (R Sen NC) joking about shooting Clinton. That's it. Like, that's normal campaign fare at this point, you try to send trackers to all your opponents events in case they say anything that could lose them an election, like, I don't know, why don't we shoot the Democratic candidate for President!
posted by DynamiteToast at 12:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Here's Melania talking about (part 2 how big of a problem it is that people, especially kids, are bullying and attacking each other on social media and saying she will focus on this if she's First Lady, a job that will be significantly easier for her since some of the worst such bullying is coming from inside the house.
We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other. We must find better ways to honor the basic goodness of our children, especially in social media. It iwll be one of the main focuses of my work if I'm privileged enough to become your first lady."
Meanwhile, here's Trump watching the speech from his plane, weirdly tuned to CNN, a network he has called on social media:
“Fraud” “Really pathetic” “totally dishonest!” “the worst” “fortunately they have bad ratings” “everyone knows they are biased” “so negative” “really bad” “bad product” “(Clinton News Network)” “little watched” “just doesn't get it” “ratings are so low - and getting worse” “Boring anti-Trump panelists, mostly losers in life!” “unwatchable” “Their news on me is fiction, a disgrace to the broadcasting industry, an arm of the Clinton campaign”
[and dozens more that I'm not going to fill this comment with]
A better way to talk to each other indeed.
posted by zachlipton at 12:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


It's removing your political opponents from government employment

More than that, it's removing government employees who are forbidden by law to engage in political activity, but are doing so, from government employment.
posted by Gelatin at 12:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [38 favorites]


I have had Cryptopsy stuck in my head all morning, and on Wednesday I will blast this all day.

And just when you thought it was too much
For the desperate masses

AND

THEN


it passes.
posted by Existential Dread at 12:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


can we rein in the NSA too while we're at it or is that too much to ask
No one got rid of Hoover until he died, despite it being an open secret that the FBI was his personal tool which he routinely used to investigate and manipulate thousands of people. He made himself useful to Attorneys General and presidents, and made sure they liked him (except for Kennedy -- they disliked and distrusted each other.) I'm sure the NSA will do the same thing with Clinton.
posted by Coventry at 12:46 PM on November 3, 2016


and we the people are fuckin' GANDALF.

Turns out eagles can vote.


The metaphor really works, because in both cases it doesn't make sense why the eagles don't come in and save the day sooner.
posted by skewed at 12:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]




*perks up

*ticks off "why didn't the eagles just fly Frodo to Mordor" on Official MeFi Derail Card
posted by saturday_morning at 12:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]


Can someone point me to the graph / chart from one of the recent previous threads that shows that Trump's polling hasn't grown past his base? I can't find it, but it was basically showing his support waxing and waning but staying around ˜38% throughout?
posted by Mchelly at 12:53 PM on November 3, 2016


The metaphor really works, because in both cases it doesn't make sense why the eagles don't come in and save the day sooner.

Because the Eye of Bannon™ would see them. Duh.
posted by Talez at 12:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]




Because the Eye of Bannon™ would see them. Duh.

Nah, it's too busy being looking for all the Jews Dwarves.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


> FBI launches internal investigation into its own Twitter account

The FBI Is Self-Destructing at the Worst Possible Moment. And it was a long time coming.
posted by homunculus at 12:57 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]




Part of the problem with fixing FBI or other law enforcement and investigative agencies is that popular as well as political culture has made them largely anathema to many liberals as career choices, so the culture inside the agencies of police forces is going to be more conservative by lacking diversity of alternative voices. Liberal scorn alone isn't going to fix the problem nor address the needs the agencies fill. Demanding higher standards is of course a good thing, but if those standards require people to act better than most people normally would, then those standards are going to be hard to uphold in institutions lacking diversity.
posted by gusottertrout at 12:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other. We must find better ways to honor the basic goodness of our children, especially in social media.

First Mod is tough gig, Melania. Are you sure you're ready for that?
posted by octobersurprise at 12:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [24 favorites]


Anybody concerned about similarities to Brexit should go listen to the BuzzFeed podcast from yesterday; No One Knows Anything, episode: "Mr. Brexit"

They delve into the slight similarities and the vast differences between the Brexit campaign and the Donald Trump campaign. It is only 16 minutes and I think will put your mind at rest.

I have been completely sure since the RNC that Hillary Rodham Clinton has this in the bag. I've never waivered from that. However....I did find myself hyperventilating the other day when I heard a clip of "No you're the puppet. You're the puppet." being played in the intro of the NYTimes podcast. Just for a second I had the nightmarish thought of that man being our President and talking to other leaders. Not going to happen. But how terrible that it is this close. Every gooddamn state in the USA should be 20 points ahead for Clinton.

Speaking of podcasts, last night someone on the Blue commented about Matt Yglesias on The Weeds, wondering if his uptalking bothered anybody else. Holy Hell. The first time I listened to that podcast I was in stunned disbelief. It is the most bizarre thing I've ever heard. How are we the listeners supposed to take him seriously? I've gotten used to it, but ever time I hear him I wonder why no one has pulled him aside and told him, "You are professional, well-informed adult. Why would you want to sound like an obnoxious teenager? Stop that uptalking at once! Pull yourself together, man."
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 12:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


H. Clinton and Bernie are going to be at Walnut Creek amphitheater in Raleigh tonight. I really wish I could go. They must be expecting a massive crowd because that is a big venue.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 1:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


First Mod is tough gig, Melania. Are you sure you're ready for that?

She'll have the biggest, most luxurious, gold-plated banhammer.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Part of the problem with fixing FBI or other law enforcement and investigative agencies is that popular as well as political culture has made them largely anathema to many liberals as career choices, so the culture inside the agencies of police forces is going to be more conservative by lacking diversity of alternative voices.

A lot of their barriers to entry are explicitly anti-liberal, left over from back in the day when radical hippies and Communists were considered the greatest threat to our nation. They are the way they are by design.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]


The Rude Pundit: Republicans Love Power But Not Democracy
What all this has done is make the nutzoids and dumbshits that make up the GOP voter coalition completely mistrust that democracy works. If everything the opposition does is a cataclysmic event ready to bring on an apocalyptic nightmare of zombies, terrorists, and government health care, then obviously you'd believe that elections are rigged and evil agents are trying to steal your lovely country from your innocent hands. Donald Trump has succeeded in working his followers into a fever pitch by promising them shit that he couldn't do even if he was elected and telling them that if he loses, it's only because bankers or someone are working against him. What the fuck are they gonna think about democracy if their Trump godhead doesn't ascend to his White House iron throne?

And the other obvious outcome here is to say that the only way government can function is if one party completely controls it. That's cool when your party is in power. But it ain't very cool when your party is in the minority and out of the presidency. Then we get to widespread suppression of dissent and other nasty things.

Democracy is supposed to ensure that people have to compromise. Once that ends, once even the chance of that ends, which is what Republicans are doing, then democracy is fuckin' doomed, man.
posted by homunculus at 1:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


biggest, most luxurious, gold-plated banhammer.
as opposed to bean-plated jaja
posted by Namlit at 1:03 PM on November 3, 2016


do you pick someone who's under federal investigation for using a private email server

Interesting factoid: I know someone who is a long time lawyer in the Justice Dept., and whose job for years has been doing, then supervising at a high level, many criminal federal prosecutions. S/He says that the likelihood of anything ever coming out of the email inquiry is zero, that the case has always been unprosecutable. Because to be a chargeable case, there'd have to be knowing delivery of classified material to someone else, and that has never, ever been what this investigation was about.

You'd never know this by our idiot media coverage, making the FBI molehill a mountain while whistling at the mounting evidence of tax evasion/gimmickry, illegal foreign campaign solicitations, long term fraud at Trump U, major fiduciary violations at the Trump Foundation, sexual assaults both major and minor, and more. Plus the enormous conflicts of interest between Trump's business interests and potential presidential duties (on the cold day in hell he got that office.)

The only thing as ironic as this is Trump's ability to draw evangelical and Xian support -- a man with no religious affiliations, who has broken virtually every commandment, and who hasn't even consistently supported core issues like abortion -- versus Clinton's inability, despite being a fairly model Xian.
posted by bearwife at 1:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]


In addition to Clinton, Obama is stumping hard for FL Senate candidate Patrick Murphy.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 1:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


How are we the listeners supposed to take him seriously?

By listening to what he says rather than how he says it. This is definitely a derail, so I'll leave it at this, but I'd frame the question differently: why does uptalking mean someone shouldn't be taken seriously? Why does his talking that way sound 'bizarre'?

[Previously, previouslier, previousli-est]
posted by cjelli at 1:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


The preliminary employment requirements for the FBI include a polygraph examination; a test for illegal drug use; credit and records checks; and extensive interviews with former and current colleagues, neighbors, friends, professors, etc.

Below are specific elements that will automatically disqualify job candidates for employment with the FBI. These include:

Default on a student loan insured by the U.S. Government
Use of marijuana within the three (3) years preceding the date of their application for employment, regardless of the location of use (even if marijuana usage is legal in the candidate’s home state).
Use of any illegal drug, other than marijuana, within the ten (10) years preceding the date of the application for employment.


No poors, no druggies, nobody with sketchy friends, and nobody who gets nervous when hooked up to a lie detector
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


FBI or other law enforcement and investigative agencies is that popular as well as political culture has made them largely anathema to many liberals as career choices

I see showbiz_liz got to this before I did, but yeah - this is not just self-selection, but also impediments in the form of hiring criteria and the security clearance process. I think it more serves to show preference for the unimaginative rule-follower than any real left-right axis, but I think you unquestionably see a consequence of only ever hiring people who have never encountered the enforcement arm of the legal system on a personal level.
posted by phearlez at 1:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


using Excel's, er, somewhat dubious random number generator

Ever since Office 2007, Excel has been using Mersenne Twister to generate PRNs.
posted by Slothrup at 1:08 PM on November 3, 2016


"Marco Rubio said friends don't let friends vote for con artists. Guess what he did a few days ago! Voted for Donald Trump! Guess Marco Rubio doesn't have any friends." - Obama, just now
posted by everybody had matching towels at 1:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [164 favorites]


DemoCAT, surely. I mean come on let's at least TRY people.

You are wrong it's Demeowcrat


Demoristocrats!
posted by Kabanos at 1:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


In the Charlie Pierce article that homunculus links, he quotes the NYPost as saying this:
Cops and firefighters were blown away by Clinton's hubris in planning the fireworks display, which would eclipse the shower of blazing sparkles that preceded the balloon drop at July's Democratic National Convention. "It's a little presumptuous of her to plan on winning. I guess she put in for this before Friday," one NYPD detective said. Others said the actual election results could put a damper on things, but one firefighter raised the specter of a 2000-style recount and added, "So what's she going to do, put the fireworks on ice?" Another source wondered: "If she loses, will she take it over to the East Side and sell it to Trump for half-price?" A retired firefighter said the FDNY' s "rank and file is outraged they are being forced to do political work…This will make it seem like the firefighters endorsed Hillary," the source said.

You'll have to insert your own Post-esque line breaks to recreate their characterstic drip-drip-drip of nothingburger with zilchpickle terribleness, but shocking, I know, that the Hillary's people have engaged in appropriate planning for a major campaign event, including establishing safeguards and protocols for having fire protection from the FDNY.

Any chance they made sure their fireworks provider pulled permits, too?????????????????
posted by joyceanmachine at 1:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


"Marco Rubio said friends don't let friends vote for con artists. Guess what he did a few days ago! Voted for Donald Trump! Guess Marco Rubio doesn't have any friends." - Obama, just now

Rubio had better hope Trump doesn't win and repeal the ACA, because he's going to need a lot of expensive medical care to treat that burn.
posted by cjelli at 1:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [73 favorites]


Marco Rubio said friends don't let friends vote for con artists . . .

I will miss our President's sick burns. I hope HRC keeps her Twitter team around with aspirations to keep her aiming at that exalted level of takedown.
posted by bearwife at 1:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


A friend of mine will be covering Hillary HQ on election night, and I just told him about the fireworks. He is so excited.
posted by uncleozzy at 1:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Adam Gopnik: Why Trump Is Different
Call them what you will—populist authoritarianism or extreme-right-wing ethno-nationalism—the active agents within a Trump speech and energizing a Trump rally are always the same: the worship of power in its most brutal and authoritarian forms (thus his admiration for Vladimir Putin and for the Chinese Communists who assaulted the protesters at Tiananmen Square); the reduction of all relations to dominance contests; the contempt for rational argument; the perpetual unashamed storm of lies; the appeal to hysterically exaggerated fears of outsiders; and, above all, the relentless sense of ethnic grievance that can be remedied only by acts of annihilating revenge. His is the ideology not of democratic patriotism but of a narrow nationalism alone—the glorification of the nation, and the exaggeration of its humiliations, with violence promised to its enemies, at home and abroad; and a promise of vengeance for those who feel themselves disempowered by history. He will “level the playing field” with the terrorist spectre of isis by forcing soldiers to commit war crimes; he will not merely kill our enemies but annihilate their families. His platform is resentment and his program is revenge, and that is an ideology with many faces and one name. This is fascism with an American face.

...

One reading of Trump should be avoided—indeed, repelled—for the sake of intellectual integrity. It has become almost an essential piety even among his opponents that a special pathos clings to his supporters, who know not what they do, but are themselves victims of forces larger than they. The misérables of the postmodern period, the dispossessed of the globalized planetary era, his supporters are not really the “racists” they are thought to be—and if they indulge in the blind hatred of his message it is only because their alienation from mainstream America, and their increasing hopelessness in the face of job losses and meaningful occupation, makes them vulnerable to a demagogic ideology. They embrace from ignorance and misplaced hope rather than from shared hatreds.

...

Even if the correlation were minimally robust, the notion that belonging to the largely fluid category “the white working class” puts one in special possession of virtue—a notion that still makes Chris Matthews’s eyes moist every night—is, in a polyglot, cosmopolitan country, absurd. The white working class built unions and raised children and fought wars—and lynched black people and supported Joe McCarthy. Sometimes those attitudes could be held together in a single personality. No group is invulnerable to bad causes. We should have no hesitation in calling deplorable attitudes deplorable—without imagining that those who hold them are deplorable people. They can be wrong without being bad. And, in any case, it would be good to balance the endless hand-wringing about the pathos of the Trump voter with some countervailing sense of the pathos, still larger, of the Clinton voter: the Latina motel cleaner in Nevada or the single mother in Brooklyn. No category of voters in a democracy is especially virtuous, none immune from evil.

...

The mistake in the analysis lies deeper, perhaps—in the assumption that only a strange and traumatic sequence can have made this happen. What can be causing Trumpism? We ask, and seek for an earthquake, or at least a historical oddity or a series of highly specific causal events. The more tragic truth is that the Trumpian view of the world is the default view of mankind. Bigotry, fanaticism, xenophobia are the norms of human life—the question is not what causes them but what uncauses them, what happens in the rare extended moments that allow them to be put aside, when secular values of toleration and pluralism replace them.
posted by theodolite at 1:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]


You'll have to insert your own Post-esque line breaks to recreate their characterstic drip-drip-drip of nothingburger with zilchpickle terribleness, but shocking, I know, that the Hillary's people have engaged in appropriate planning for a major campaign event, including establishing safeguards and protocols for having fire protection from the FDNY.

Every one of those quoted cops and firefighters comes off as a screaming asshole.
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]


asshole misogynist fascist cops how weird
posted by entropicamericana at 1:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [43 favorites]


a screaming asshole.

The visual that inspired has me googling cat gifs, thanks.
posted by Mooski at 1:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


6 ways Trump could win 270 electoral votes

It's a more click-baiting than insightful CNN piece interesting largely because in every way he needs Florida. Oh, Donnie'll be hotter 'en a two-peckered billy goat in a pepper patch if he loses America's wang.
posted by octobersurprise at 1:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Every one of those quoted cops and firefighters comes off as a screaming asshole.

Someone get Roiland on the phone, they need to re-render this scene but change the image for the sun.
posted by phearlez at 1:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I think it more serves to show preference for the unimaginative rule-follower than any real left-right axis, but I think you unquestionably see a consequence of only ever hiring people who have never encountered the enforcement arm of the legal system on a personal level.

Yes, it certainly isn't a wholly neutral context for hiring as showbiz_liz reasonaly pointed out, but i do think of it more in line with the phearlez's quote above, though maybe even without even the "unimaginative" part. It certainly may be time to change the some of those guidelines a bit when pot is legal in some states and student loans can be oppressive, but trying to find people who will uphold the law and respect the rules and who are more open to leftish values won't be easy even with that given the tension between a national intelligence gathering service and many of the values of those on the left. The same too could be said for other branches of law enforcement too varying degrees.
posted by gusottertrout at 1:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


The visual that inspired has me googling cat gifs, thanks.

When you think about it an asshole's scream is just a really loud fart.
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


When you think about it

can't make me
posted by theredpen at 1:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


I said it in a thread two weeks ago or so, I'll say it again - if my old recurring nightmares about nuclear war come back between now and Tuesday I will develop the ability to teleport myself to Trump's presence through sheer will and I will punch him in the dick.

So you plan on punching a dick in the dick?
posted by CottonCandyCapers at 1:22 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Because the next four years are going to be nothing but one long, continuous, never ending, Republican temper tantrum with Clinton exerting every erg of political energy and will she can muster merely to hold the status quo.

It's still going to be something like ten thousand times better than the alternative.

No matter how hard Republicans try to hold back time, progress continues. Men now marry men, women marry women, minorities are becoming the majority, a black man is president, and a woman is going to succeed him. Things will continue to get better.
posted by pracowity at 1:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]


Republicans are now vowing Total War.

But as he has in so many ways, Donald Trump takes every ugly impulse Republicans have and turns it up to 11, and just about the entire party follows him down. So now they are making it very clear that from literally the day Hillary Clinton is inaugurated, they will wage total war on her. There will be no rule or norm or standard of decency they won’t flout if it gets them a step closer to destroying her, no matter what the collateral damage.

It’s important to understand that strong institutions are what separate strong democracies from weak ones. In a strong democracy, one party can’t come into power and just lock up its opponents. It can’t turn the country’s law enforcement agencies into a partisan tool to destroy the other party. It can’t say that the courts will function only at its pleasure. We have the world’s most stable system not just because there aren’t tanks in the streets on election day, but because we have institutions that are strong enough to restrain the venality of individual men and women. And now, Republicans are not even pretending that those institutions should be impartial and transcend partisanship. They’re saying, if we can use them to destroy our opponents, we will.

posted by T.D. Strange at 1:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [55 favorites]


So you plan on punching a dick in the dick?

Dickception?
posted by Talez at 1:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


In 2012, the Romney campaign had approval from the city of Boston to shoot fireworks over Boston Harbor. Turned out to be no need for that (and Tagg drove Mitt home to Belmont).
posted by adamg at 1:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


"Perhaps that's why we don't appreciate Clinton's strengths as a candidate. She's winning a process that evolved to showcase stereotypically male traits using a stereotypically female strategy. And it's working."
Excellent point. There is so much sexism baked into our expectations of politicians and presidents, starting with celebrating the "blunt talking, piss people off, DGAF" attitude.

Take that classic, moronic question -- "Who would you rather have a beer with?" (And ignore for now the fact that neither George W. Bush nor Trump drink beer.)

Listen to how different this sounds: "Who would you rather have a glass of wine with?"
posted by msalt at 1:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


6 ways Trump could win 270 electoral votes

ಠ_ಠ
posted by zarq at 1:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I would totally have a beer with Hillary.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [60 favorites]


I think i'm just really in disbelief and denial that this is our election. That Trump is actually a candidate... STILL. After everything. He's still a candidate.

I realized today that every time I look on here or on Twitter, I really truly believe I will see the end of his candidacy.

I just can't fathom that he's actually made it this far, to mere days away.
posted by sio42 at 1:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


My standard: "Who would you rather have a beer without bitching about?"
posted by Rykey at 1:38 PM on November 3, 2016


Hasn't Hillary been to like half a dozen breweries on the trail? Some photos from one of them.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 1:38 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


though maybe even without even the "unimaginative" part

I waffled on including that, as I have known plenty of nice FBI agents and counted a few as friends, and don't want to slight them. But I left it because I think it does truly describe the general preference the system shows towards people who have not stepped even slightly outside any of the cultural norms. It's not a perfect exclusion by any means but I think it's a general truism when you look at the whole secret clearance scheme, and the FBI criteria goes even beyond basic TS guidelines. I guess you could use "uncomplicated," but that seems to be similarly judgmental-sounding in a different manner.

See also the problem with the fact that our high court never gets people with defense experience seated. There's an entire half of the adversarial system who never gets their experience reflected from the bench, and that's fucked up.
posted by phearlez at 1:38 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Can't we leave the Poles out of this?

entropicamericana: they're still pretty touchy about that time kerry forgot poland


Yeah, they are. Most of them. All of them.
posted by chonus at 1:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I just can't fathom that he's actually made it this far, to mere days away.

The worst thing is knowing if it was Biden v Trump this election would be 1980 but with the colors reversed.
posted by Talez at 1:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Can we please try not to use the word "purge" to describe justifiable dismissal of federal employees on the basis of Hatch Act violations and dissemination of confidential information? Chris Christie was using "purge" just months ago at the RNC to describe firing government employees on the basis of ideology. What Clinton would be doing at the FBI would be done on the basis of breaking agency rules and federal law. It's a very different thing and calling it a "purge" gives it nasty connotations.
posted by sallybrown at 1:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [38 favorites]


Fuck beer. Who do you want to have $2 frozen margarita with at happy hour, this is the true question. Hilary would never bogart all the chips n' salsa. She would order a plate of nachos and let the rest of the table eat most of them. And everyone around the table would cackle drunkenly as the tequila kicked in.
posted by emjaybee at 1:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]


Don't dick punch. Vote!

I reserve the right to do both, good sir
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


Oh, Eric.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


I hope she has many beers and many drinks over the next eight years, and I hope she gets to have at least half of them with people she likes.
posted by Mooski at 1:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


Oh, Eric.

Ugh, these fuckin guys. You can marginalize horrific assholes like Duke with out resorting to extrajudicial killings. The world is not your private safari hunting ground, Eric.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:44 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


My father's the first Republican who's gone out and said, 'Listen, what's happened to the African-American community is horrible and I'm going to take care of it.'"

Seems like there was at least one other famous Republican that took care of some horrible things that happened to the African-American community.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]


Ugh, these fuckin guys. You can marginalize horrific assholes like Duke with out resorting to extrajudicial killings. The world is not your private safari hunting ground, Eric.

Just once I'd like someone interviewing these assholes go "what the fuck is wrong with you?"
posted by Talez at 1:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]


You can marginalize horrific assholes like Duke with out resorting to extrajudicial killings.


Well, if his Dad became president it wouldn't necessarily be extrajudicial for long.
posted by Coventry at 1:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Regardless of who's voting, the more early votes there are, the less chance there is of shenanigans on Tuesday, whether just from long lines and shitty-slow processes or from outside interference.

Every one of those quoted cops and firefighters comes off as a screaming asshole.

I'm sure the Post has them filed in the contact book under "Assholes, NYPD" and "Assholes, FDNY" for just these kinds of situations. Cowards, all of them.

It reminds me of that piece in the Grauniad about the aftermath of 9/11, covering both Senator Clinton's immediate support and concern for first responders, and her efforts to get funding for the Ground Zero workers who developed health problems, against resistance from the Bush administration.

There's something galling about the narrative of influence-peddling when so many groups have benefitted from HRC's work and either don't have any influence of their own, or do so and still retain a toxic institutional affection for an authoritarian bullshit artist. It's as if a woman isn't allowed to earn gratitude.
posted by holgate at 1:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


Just once I'd like someone interviewing these assholes go "what the fuck is wrong with you?"

In this case, it was the interviewer who started it, so not much chance of that happening.
posted by zachlipton at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016


The metaphor really works, because in both cases it doesn't make sense why the eagles don't come in and save the day sooner.

They didn't come in earlier because of the Nazgul. Same thing in Lord of the Rings.
posted by Celsius1414 at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


> I think the best odds for getting back the non-deplorable part of the working class would be to put up a candidate more like Sanders

Is there anyone you have your eye on for 2024?
posted by The corpse in the library at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016


"My father's the first Republican who's gone out and said, 'Listen, what's happened to the African-American community is horrible and I'm going to take care of it.'"

Psst! Eric! Lincoln!
posted by Sys Rq at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


It's as if a woman isn't allowed

Yeah, you can pretty much end the sentence there.
posted by Mooski at 1:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]


Question for the stat-heads among you:

So, a poll just came out showing Clinton up by +1 in Arizona. Before anyone gets too excited, other polls over the same period show Trump up, so let's assume for the moment it's an outlier.

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

PLEASE don't tell me it's because 538 sucks or Nate Silver wants clicks or whatever your personal opinion about the site is, I've already heard it. I am literally asking, solely and only, why mathematically would a model move in that direction after being given that poll?


The answer is that nobody knows. If you really want to drive yourself crazy trying to figure it out, all of 538's updates are here. The number to pay attention to is the red/blue ones on the far right - that's 538's adjusted poll estimate based on the pollster's history (and whatever else Nate wanted to throw in). To wit:

-Trump +7 in Utah? Clinton's chances are down .1%!
-Trump +11 in Utah and +16 in Kentucky? Clinton's chances down .2%!
-Tie in New Hampshire? Clinton's chances up .2%!
-Trump +13 in Texas and +10 in Utah? Clinton's chances down 1.1%!

One suggestion was that there's a certain stochastic element here because they're running these Monte Carlo simulations 10,000 times every time they get new data. So the .1% changes are really just random noise. I guess that could be part of it.

The real issue - one that Wang calls "double-counting" - is that Silver has two things baked into his calculations: (1) all state polls are correlated with each other and (2) all polls are adjusted with an overall trend. Did you catch that? Whenever we get a new state poll, he adjusts all of the other polls twice. Let's say the 538 model estimates that Wisconsin's at Clinton +6. And last week, Minnesota was at +8. If we get a poll today that says Minnesota is at +4, that updates Wisconsin in two ways: first, Nate's model says "well Minnesota and Wisconsin are pretty similar, so if Minnesota's at +4, then Wisconsin's probably closer to +4 than we thought." THEN, his model says, "Oh also the trend in Minnesota is down four points last week, so Wisconsin must be down too." And it further reduces Clinton's lead in Wisconsin.

See why that's double-dipping? If the states are correlated, then you assume the new information in Minnesota is giving us up-to-date information about Wisconsin. If you don't assume the states are correlated, then the trend in Minnesota is telling us something about the trend in Wisconsin. Nate's model does both. That's why his model looks so volatile - because every new poll is counted twice, once in the state-by-state correlations and once in the overall trend-line.

Why do they do this? Because Nate Silver has apparently never heard of William of Ockham.
posted by one_bean at 1:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]



Oh, Eric.

I'll take "the Trumpling doth protest too much" for 200, Alex.

"Hmm... okay, so I've heard that people are kind of touchy about the whole white supremacy and Klan connection to my dad. Soooo let me think... I guess I should say we should assassinate those people? That sounds like something someone might think if they didn't like Klan members. I'll go with that. Assassination! Yeah, that's the ticket!"
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


> No poors, no druggies, nobody with sketchy friends, and nobody who gets nervous when hooked up to a lie detector

Don't forget mandatory undergraduate degree - they won't even look at your application otherwise, as it's an absolute requirement.
posted by MysticMCJ at 1:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Here's an, ahem, poll declaring Trump the victor.
posted by cottoncandybeard at 1:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


(1) all state polls are correlated with each other and (2) all polls are adjusted with an overall trend. Did you catch that? Whenever we get a new state poll, he adjusts all of the other polls twice.
That's not necessarily broken. Surely you can make a fully probabilistic hierarchical model which captures both those behaviors. (Not that I know anything about how the 538 model.)
posted by Coventry at 1:58 PM on November 3, 2016


ERIC TRUMP: I...disavow David Duke.

KELLYANNE CONWAY: Good, good. Keep going

ET: David Duke is wrong, and...bad.

KC: Yes. You're doing great

ET: I denounce him. I denounce him until the blood comes

KC: Ok hold up
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]


Re. the FBI, President Clinton would have no good options. If she cleans house, it'll look like a vengeful purge or a craven attempt at stifling ongoing investigations. If she doesn't, she'll be dogged by a rogue law enforcement agency for her entire presidency, eternally turning up new potentially pertinent evidence whenever convenient. Obama could do it as a lame duck but probably won't.
posted by theodolite at 2:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I like how they contacted David Duke about the Eric Trump quote and he was like "good one, I'm in the middle of a project, call me in an hour." Like...what project? A shoebox diorama of Great Moments in Segregation?
posted by zutalors! at 2:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]


I think the best idea is to clean house in the FBI as soon as possible. Gives people the most time to forget about it before the next election.

She basically has to do it. They'll be trying to destroy her the entire term if she doesn't. It would be a lot better if Obama did it, and he should... but I agree he probably won't.
posted by Mitrovarr at 2:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


It reminds me of that piece in the Grauniad about the aftermath of 9/11, covering both Senator Clinton's immediate support and concern for first responders, and her efforts to get funding for the Ground Zero workers who developed health problems, against resistance from the Bush administration.

This is the thing that has galled me about 9/11 for the past 15 years - that a staggeringly huge number of politicians, and citizens, have no compunction about exploiting the worst day of my life for their own sentiment-filled tributes, but when it comes to actually making good on "supporting the troops", like Hillary is trying to do, they're all "fuck that noise".

I mean, I've gotten used to it, but it still galls.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]


> If she cleans house, it'll look like a vengeful purge or a craven attempt at stifling ongoing investigations.

She is already viewed as vengeful and corrupt by a certain faction who have basically committed to treating her as such. Optics be damned - if this doesn't happen under President Obama, I don't see much of an excuse for it to not happen under her administration.
posted by MysticMCJ at 2:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


Who wants to put money down that some faction in the FBI tries to start an investigation Wednesday on whether Clinton rigged the election?
posted by C'est la D.C. at 2:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


what project?

Tweaking? A project that needs tweaking?
posted by DynamiteToast at 2:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


>>(1) all state polls are correlated with each other and (2) all polls are adjusted with an overall trend. Did you catch that? Whenever we get a new state poll, he adjusts all of the other polls twice.

>That's not necessarily broken. Surely you can make a fully probabilistic hierarchical model which captures both those behaviors. (Not that I know anything about how the 538 model.)


I don't think it's necessarily an inherently bad idea, but I suspect the model is over-correcting. A big part of the reason for this is that a lot of states are harder to poll than others, so a state with very swingy polling will wind up affecting other states, even when those other states have very stable polling.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:10 PM on November 3, 2016


Like...what project?

oh, you know. stuff.
posted by entropicamericana at 2:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Also the "good one." So casual for a death threat. I guess he's used to them.
posted by zutalors! at 2:12 PM on November 3, 2016


She is already viewed as vengeful and corrupt by a certain faction who have basically committed to treating her as such.

At this point, if Jesus Christ appeared in the skies above Washington at the moment of Clinton's inauguration and declared 'Here is my daughter, in whom I am well pleased', the entire GOP would mass-convert to Hinduism.
posted by Devonian at 2:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [86 favorites]


The FBI can do whatever they want. I am certain that Preet Bharara isn't going to go along with their crap.
posted by mikelieman at 2:14 PM on November 3, 2016


She is already viewed as vengeful and corrupt by a certain faction who have basically committed to treating her as such.

If someone is starting from the axiom, "Hillary Clinton is EVIL.". There's not a whole lot of room for rational discussion of her stance on the issues.
posted by mikelieman at 2:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


If there's anything we should take away from this election, it's that the Gish gallop works. Fuck optics. Do what you want. The Republicans have left the Supreme Court with eight people, and no one cares.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 2:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


At this point, if Jesus Christ appeared in the skies above Washington at the moment of Clinton's inauguration and declared 'Here is my daughter, in whom I am well pleased', the entire GOP would mass-convert to Hinduism.

Wahhabism, surely. They're halfway there.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


Are we still giving yard sign updates?

They've sprouted up here in the past week. While there have been a few Trump signs for a while now, those have multiplied, and I've been pleased to see Hillary represented as well.

But twice I've done a double-take on seeing one for Michelle Beckman. (Nearby city council, I think.)
posted by jaruwaan at 2:20 PM on November 3, 2016


I'd like to reiterate one one of the quotes theodolite pulled from that Adam Gopnik article, because it rings so true to me (emphasis and abridgement mine):
The mistake in the analysis lies deeper, perhaps—in the assumption that only a strange and traumatic sequence can have made this happen. What can be causing Trumpism? . . . The more tragic truth is that the Trumpian view of the world is the default view of mankind. Bigotry, fanaticism, xenophobia are the norms of human life—the question is not what causes them but what uncauses them, what happens in the rare extended moments that allow them to be put aside, when secular values of toleration and pluralism replace them.<>
posted by ianhattwick at 2:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


On the main road near me there are two McCain/Palin signs far enough apart that they don't appear to be just one person's yard signs. I'm not sure if it's someone being Dadaist, some poor Republican is engaging in wishful thinking, or, I actually live in an area where the fabric of space and time is broken. Sapphire and Steel have been assigned.
posted by merocet at 2:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


The Republicans have left the Supreme Court with eight people, and no one cares.

Not only have people basically accepted that there will be no new justice this year, but now the goalposts have been moved such that you have several Republicans (Cruz, Burr, etc) saying maybe let's just wait until the next Republican president....

(Even if the GOP retains the Senate, I still hope this view remains enough of a minority that a handful of Republicans + the Dems can get a justice confirmed, but ugh)
posted by thefoxgod at 2:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


THR - Critic's Notebook: Melania Trump's Campaign Speech Goes From Vapid to Unintentionally Hilarious
In her first campaign speech since the convention, the aspiring First Lady urged voters to "treat each other with respect and kindness," as the nation burst into hysterical laughter.

A mere five days before the election, Melania Trump emerged from hiding to deliver her first campaign speech since the Republican National Convention. Considering how well that one went, it's not surprising she waited this long.

This speech, at least, seemed to be wholly original, although you wouldn't have been surprised if she had begun by saying "four score and seven years ago." On the other hand, it was so vapidly platitudinous and basic that if her speechwriters were cribbing from anyone, it was Dr. Seuss.
...
The proceedings became truly surreal when she informed the crowd that social media "can have a bad side" (really, Melania, you think?) and that "our culture has gotten too mean and too rough." It made you wonder if she actually knows who she's married to. She added that she would "work hard to improve everyday life for women." (Just a suggestion, Melania, but the best way to start would be by keeping them far away from your husband.)

Delivering the absurdly ironic sound bite that will have comedy writers working overtime the next few days — you can be sure that Laura Benanti will be reprising her impression for Stephen Colbert — Melania declared, "We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree."

That is, she forgot to add, unless Donald gets elected.
posted by zachlipton at 2:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


Of course she has to clean house at the FBI. This isn't normal politics where there are measured reactions and she could reasonably expect that in with limited response her critics would back off. They will accuse her no matter what she does.
posted by humanfont at 2:29 PM on November 3, 2016




New polls from possible battleground states that shouldn't be battlegrounds. Trump up only 1 in Georgia post-Comey is... interesting.

@BraddJaffy
NBC/WSJ/Marist polls:

AZ
Trump 45
Clinton 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3

GA
Trump 45
Clinton 44
Johnson 8

TX
Trump 49
Clinton 40
Johnson 6
Stein 2
posted by chris24 at 2:33 PM on November 3, 2016


WSJ Republican Party to Air Spanish-Language TV Ad That Doesn’t Mention Donald Trump
The Republican National Committee on Wednesday will begin airing its first Spanish-language television ad of the 2016 election – only it doesn’t mention presidential nominee Donald Trump, who is struggling to win over Hispanic voters. The RNC is spending nearly $250,000 on the ad airing on Univision and Telemundo, in which Hispanic voters talk about the issues that attract them to the GOP: lower taxes, stronger national security and expanded school choice.

“We wanted to push out a conservative message on television that all of our candidates represent,” said Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 2:33 PM on November 3, 2016


Wolf to Chaffetz, on the women who have accused Trump of sexual assault: "You don't believe those women, is that right?"
Chaffetz: "I don't know if they're telling the truth or if they're not telling the truth... Assume that it's true and hope that it's not."
--@CCValentine_

What the what now?
posted by zachlipton at 2:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


I'd like to suggest not posting daily horse race tracking polls. They are garbage, and fully known to be.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary

God, can you fucking imagine?
posted by penduluum at 2:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


What the what now?

Everything Jason Chaffetz says more sense when you remember that he is both a partisan hack and a complete idiot.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]


Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary
God, can you fucking imagine?


He is working through the unimaginable.
posted by zachlipton at 2:38 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


I'd like to suggest not posting daily horse race tracking polls.

The NBC/WSJ state polls are not tracking polls.
posted by chris24 at 2:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I would totally have a beer with Hillary.

How Hillary Clinton beat John McCain at vodka drinking
The Telegraph - May 23, 2008
It has emerged that Mrs Clinton took on Mr McCain at downing vodka shots when the two senators were on a congressional tour of Estonia in 2004.

Rumours of the drinking contest have surfaced before, but had always been dismissed as apocryphal until the story was finally confirmed by Mrs Clinton's campaign manager, and by the owner of a restaurant in the Estonian capital of Tallinn.

Dimitri Demjanov, proprietor of Gloria's, said the two political heavyweights managed four shots each before Mrs Clinton was declared the winner, though the rules of the contest remain somewhat opaque.

Was it first past the post? Did Mr McCain demand a recount? Mr Demjanov refused to say, but when asked who was the winner he did not hesitate before answering: 'Hillary won. She stayed correct after four shots. And John McCain too.'
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]


In more profiles in Republican courage: Original Never-Trumper Hugh Hewitt now says he's voting Trump. As if there was ever really a question.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


>Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary

God, can you fucking imagine?


Ruth Guerra, who held held role for several years, quit in June:
The dichotomy of being a Republican paid to defend a candidate attacking Hispanics on a near-daily basis proved to be too much for Guerra, according to multiple Latino Democratic and Republican operatives familiar with her thinking.
posted by cjelli at 2:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I kind of don't feel very much for the 'hee hee ho ho Melania soo comical'-approach, but of course:

"We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree..." is just, uh...
posted by Namlit at 2:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


I'd like to suggest not posting daily horse race tracking polls.

The NBC/WSJ state polls are not tracking polls.


Mea culpa, you're right. It's ABC/WaPo that does the daily tracking stuff.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


She means "people who disagree with Trump et. al. must treat Trump et. al. with respect and kindness even when Trump et. al. are being horrible."

It's similar to "What is this election missing? Empathy for Trump supporters."
posted by stolyarova at 2:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


I kind of don't feel very much for the 'hee hee ho ho Melania soo comical'-approach, but of course:

"We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree..." is just, uh...


Cognitive dissonance in action.
posted by bananana at 2:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


How Hillary Clinton beat John McCain at vodka drinking

Now picturing Hillary Clinton as Marion Ravenwood.
posted by entropicamericana at 2:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


Cognitive dissonance in action.

Some dissonance, sure, but I'm worried about the "cognitive" here.
posted by Namlit at 2:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


sorry to beat the dead horse, but NBC/WSJ do horse-racey daily tracking, it's just not these polls
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:51 PM on November 3, 2016


Not an ex, but my best friend for awhile was a liberal Buddhist guy who loved to wear women's clothes out to queer clubs on weekends. I taught him how to do makeup and he taught me to check my privilege. Now he's a Trump loving doomsday prepper who lives in the wilds of Alaska and literally keeps a small plane gassed up out back in case the government comes to take his guns. Like, HOW IS THIS A THING THAT CAN HAPPEN.

This was approximately seven million comments back, but I've been thinking about this a lot recently because of a Facebook interaction I had with a guy who I haven't seen for about 10 years, but we used to be really good friends when we lived in the same town. He posted a rabid editorial piece to his wall that said Hillary should step down from the presidential race (yes, a week before the election) due to the "very serious" criminal investigation being conducted by the FBI. I commented with a link to the Eichenwald article in Newsweek showing that the new flurry of concern was a tempest in a teapot.

Now, this is a college-educated man. Late 40's. Reasonable person. He's a conservative Christian, but when I knew him he was fairly apolitical. I mean, be probably voted GOP, but he wasn't rabid, and he and I shared an tendency toward pacifism and a concern about the extreme soldier-worship on the rise in America. We talked about how we were troubled by the "I support President Bush and our troops" signs that popped up after the US invaded Iraq, and we both didn't like the implication that real Americans wouldn't criticize Bush's unnecessary new war. I thought he would read and respond constructively to a well-sourced article that put the latest Comey/Clinton flap in perspective.

I was wrong. He told me Newsweek was part of the liberal mainstream media and was probably being paid by the Clinton camp to cover her crimes. He think followed up with a link to a Christian author saying that no matter what happened on election day, God would still be in control and his plans would come to fruition. I told him that I wasn't really clear on what his theology of God's sovereignty had to do with the details of the FBI investigation, and that's when he told me that even if the evil woman I supported became POTUS, she wouldn't be able to thwart the will of God.

Here's the kicker. The reason I know him is that I was his pastor. He was a deacon. We worked together for more than four years in ministry. His wife was part of our worship planning committee and we met weekly. And all it took was one link to one article and he's basically telling me that I'm on the side of the devil because I'm fact-checking some rabid no-nothing editorial. I have no idea what happened to the guy. But at some point he got completely sucked into the Fox News alternate reality and it seems to have basically ruined him. I've see that happen with older folks, but was not expecting that from one of my peers.

I let it drop. I don't see how we can have a productive conversation when I can't point to any information source he will respect. If it's not overtly right-wing and pro-Trump, it's part of the corrupt liberal establishment to him.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 2:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [147 favorites]


NC Voting Report

I voted this afternoon (~4:00pm) in Raleigh (Optimist Park). Took about 15 minutes waiting in the steadily moving line, 5 minutes to get a ballot, and another 10 to fill in the ovals. Traffic was steady in and out of the building. Yesterday the process was a little quicker for my wife. Also, a couple of hours earlier today she picked up her aged mother from her room at the extended care home and helped her through curbside voting. Nana has supported Clinton enthusiastically since 2008 and she was wild to vote. When we told her last night that today was a go she said, "That's great! I thought I had to wait 'til Tuesday." Early voting made that old lady happy.

The older I get the more Yellow Dog Democrat I become. Easy to vote for Ross and Cooper and so on, especially considering the opposition. The decisions aren't difficult and I vote calmly. But voting for Clinton felt about the same to me as voting for Obama in 2008. Not just proud (like 2012), thrilled.
posted by kingless at 2:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]


Rep. Chaffetz on Clinton: "Her ability to look in the camera and just lie, lie, lie scares me more than anything"

So we need a Chaffetz Corollary to Trump's Mirror now? Anything Chaffetz says about Clinton is projecting Kellyanne Conway?
posted by Talez at 2:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


I think the most important poll is one of the least scientific: the one cottoncandybear linked to an article about on AVClub. Porn site Red Tube polled "one million users": 82% male (and obviously 100% NOT scandalized by Trump's behavior toward women) and Trump was preferred by ONLY 52.1%?!!? If he can't get a higher margin from THAT demographic sub-sub-group, then he's going to get landslided (landslid?) by the rest of the electorate.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Since I'd like some favorites, let me tell you about how door knocking went today.

I've only ever previously volunteered for charity stuff that I did with work and those events were structured to accommodate corporate groups like ours. And I'm an introvert, so talking to strangers is really not my thing.

But this cycle, even in MN, I felt like just voting (I voted back in Sept.) wasn't enough, I needed to do more. I took today and tomorrow off so that I could volunteer and I'm really happy I did.

I have evening duties that meant I could only go during the day so I didn't actually talk to very many people. But I can echo others in saying that I didn't have any negative interactions. The closest one was the guy who works the night shift that we woke up. He gets it but wanted very much to go back to sleep. They put me in very blue area so I saw a lot of Bernie signs (sometimes accompanied by a Hillary sign too), a few Hillary signs and bumper stickers, but zero Trump.

At the campaign office in South Minneapolis, they tell me that they need door knockers most of all, election day is the most important day for door knocking so it will be an all-out blitz. I asked if they wanted the case of bottled water I brought for them and got a relieved sigh in answer. I asked if there was anything else and he said, "More bottled water." So if you can only donate some supplies, bottled water is what they need.

Oh also, I was able to get my ideal scenario (short of, "Actually, could you enter some data instead.") of basically being a safety escort for someone else not afraid to talk to people but not comfortable going alone. I'm going back tomorrow for more and might see if I can take election day off for more.
posted by VTX at 2:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]


> Vox: Why women are still voting for Trump, despite his misogyny

That is a great piece. Here's another excerpt from it:
I was very struck by the female supporter who said Trump is like the bully you want to beat up on the other bully. There is longstanding social science evidence that people with fewer resources, educational or economic, tend to look heroes — or villains even— to stand up for them. Somebody they think has some kind of power that they don’t have.

The exception is when you have a union. The one time that you don’t see that in action, at least so much, is when an area is unionized. Then, because workers have some kind of collective power, they’re not so likely to turn toward some authoritarian demagogue. They can actually imagine going up against the boss in their own collective power rather than finding somebody else to go up against the boss or someone else to throw under the wheels of the bus.
Fuck Reagan for forcibly accelerating the decline of unions.
posted by languagehat at 2:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [106 favorites]


Well, if you're waiting for oppo droppo, tomorrow may be your day. Friday has been the big day for it; Comey, Grabbing Pussy, Wikileaks. From both Kurt Eichenwald and NeverTrumper Rick Wilson. Hopefully more impact than the last couple.

@kurteichenwald
Coming up tomorrow in @Newsweek: One of my most important stories so far pertaining to the election.

@TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
posted by chris24 at 2:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


My JCPL is at epic levels today. I'm avoiding 538 now but someone mentioned "66-33" to me and I'm just... taking it one breath at a time. I'm telling myself sanity arrives in less than a week. Just, thank you all for getting me through this.
posted by clever sheep at 3:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Rick Wilson has become the boy who cried Wolf Blitzer.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


In more profiles in Republican courage: Original Never-Trumper Hugh Hewitt now says he's voting Trump

If nothing else, I will give Erick Erickson credit for being true to his word. He told them all to go screw themselves and voted McMullin.
posted by octobersurprise at 3:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Need a burst of positivity? This Emily's List "Girl Club" ad is the BEST.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 3:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]


My JCPL is at epic levels today. I'm avoiding 538 now but someone mentioned "66-33" to me and I'm just... taking it one breath at a time.

As mentioned above, Nate has said if Nevada goes blue, her chances are 90%+ even in his model. Early voting returns from the state look very good for Dems, in a state where 60% of the vote will be early vote.
posted by chris24 at 3:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


Porn site Red Tube polled "one million users": 82% male (and obviously 100% NOT scandalized by Trump's behavior toward women)

That comment appears in the AV Club article but does not appear to be supported by the "poll" in question, nor does it seem plausible to me. Plenty of people watch porn but do not support sexual assault, even those who like porn that presents a fantasy version of such. Unless I'm missing some detailed data that doesn't show up on RedTube's page about the poll. (Which is obviously not meant to be taken toooo seriously, heh)
posted by thefoxgod at 3:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


I early-voted in Prince George's County, Maryland, this afternoon. Turnout was heavy, and parking was a disaster, but inside the polling place things moved very quickly. I was in and out in about 30 minutes, complete with sticker. There were a couple sad Trump/Pence signs, but no people trying to engage anyone about that disgusting ticket. Of course, suburban Maryland is pretty dark blue...
posted by wintermind at 3:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


It's not too productive to speculate, though, since we'll know by the end of today, regardless, as today is the deadline SEPTA gave Local 234 for volunteering.

Well, disregard that: the Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that no injunctions have yet been filed, and both possible filing venues have closed for the day. They could still file tomorrow, or on Monday, but not over the weekend, right?
posted by cjelli at 3:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


@juliaioffe I spent the day with Trump supporters in Tennessee. They told me the country is on the wrong path, and that the earth is flat. Literally.

All those shots from space of the big blue marble? Fake?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Unless I'm missing some detailed data that doesn't show up on RedTube's page about the poll.

I'm pretty sure that's a different kind of pole. Hiyo!
posted by kirkaracha at 3:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]




If nothing else, I will give Erick Erickson credit for being true to his word. He told them all to go screw themselves and voted McMullin.

I really do want to be inclusive, but this group of people -- not the relatively sane/moderate NeverTrumpers like Kasich and corb, etc. but the people like Erickson and Glenn Beck who are directly responsible for the post-fact, fascist-threatened hellhole that is America, 2016 -- and who then are asking for chin scritches for voting McMullin/Clinton/None Of The Above --
Erickson: Look, you're against bleeding, and I also oppose bleeding! Let's come together and stop the bleeding!

tivalasvegas: Yeah but I seem to remember you spent the last ten years beating the body politic with a stick and that is why there is blood

Erickson: Let's move forward together! Also, Fact checkers are liberal reporters who want to be taken seriously. So instead of writing on the editorial page or the front page, they create “fact check” columns where their liberalism can be used to claim the truth for the left, even when it is a lie.

tivalasvegas:
[fake, internal dialogue]
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


Can transport workers strike by refusing to collect fares? That way they would increase financial pressure on management by keeping maintenance/fuel costs up but pushing revenue to zero, and at the same time avoid alienating customers.
posted by Coventry at 3:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


I know this is meant to be helpful, but only looking at the one poll with good news is how Romney & Friends "knew" they had it in the bag. I'm concerned that's MeFi is starting to build its own bubble and not looking at the reality of what has happened to the race

There is definitely some of this going on. To be clear, it's still possible Clinton will win in North Carolina and Florida and Nevada and Colorado and New Hampshire and get 320+ EV. Some people report encouraging early voting numbers. (I don't have the background to properly evaluate these claims since you'll also find people claiming the opposite). So perhaps that will happen.

But today we have two polls showing Trump with a lead in New Hampshire. That is a Clinton "blue wall" state. As in, the states that prevent Trump from getting to 270. Yes, if Clinton does not win New Hampshire it means Trump really and truly has a realistic path to 270. Not just a vaguely plausible map, but a realistic one.

Could he lose NH? Sure. Could he win NH and lose Nevada or North Carolina and thus the election? Sure. But this "The race being close is media spin, it's in the bag, GO TEAM!" is... wrongheaded. It's, again, how Romney was blindsided.
posted by Justinian at 3:22 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Vox: Third-party voters are “trading votes” with Clinton voters to defeat Trump

WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS IS, A PERSONALITY QUIZ? IF YOU DON'T WANT TRUMP, VOTE CLINTON. AAAAUUUUUUGH
posted by Taft at 3:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


That quote from theodolite's link, Adam Gopnik: Why Trump Is Different!

Bigotry, fanaticism, xenophobia are the norms of human life—the question is not what causes them but what uncauses them, what happens in the rare extended moments that allow them to be put aside, when secular values of toleration and pluralism replace them

This, this, this. One of my great frustrations with this election is that there's so much "how could Trump supporters support such?! what changed?!" and yes, of course, it's the normal, historical condition for human beings to be xenophobic and bigoted. It's only the last maybe 100 years we've made any sustained progress in being less so in a (somewhat) universal sense. To answer that question, one way we maintain norms of toleration and pluralism is thru norms. Norms are maintained in a lot of ways, but one way is leadership. Those with more influence and who are listened to more need to maintain those norms. Republican leaders have been not maintaining those norms and by abdicating to Trump (at best saying mealy-mouthed things like they don't like a specific thing he says but vote for him anyway), they are signaling the norms they support which lead people away from what progress we've made. So to the degree our society is supposed to reject bigotry and xenophobia (which isn't enough for many of us, but there's some), the Republican leaders have been undermining it by not clearly rejecting Trump.

They've been undermining norms for tolerance for a while in other ways for ages, of course, but remember under Bush during the Iraq war he was regularly trying to tamp down the idea that this was a clash of civilizations. Anyone remember this? The Bush administration renamed the operation because Muslim scholars pointed out that justice was the providence of God and if you didn't want this to appear to be a Holy War, then maybe they should rename. And they did. That may seem small but it matters. The Bush administration, for all its faults, did make some effort to not make it only about xenophobia, etc.

So, I am not afraid of Trump or even people who support Trump. I'm afraid that even if Clinton wins, those leaders won't stand up to the next guy like him. I don't know how we get to those norms, but certainly we make it harder by undermining them.
posted by R343L at 3:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [44 favorites]


I don't really understand vote trading... aren't you taking a huge risk? It's not enforceable! What if this tricks people into giving away their vote in some way that is bad? Am I not understanding it well?
posted by prefpara at 3:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


I hope the Clinton supporters swapping votes are voting Clinton anyway.
posted by Taft at 3:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]


but the people like Erickson and Glenn Beck who are directly responsible for the post-fact, fascist hellhole that is America, 2016

Oh yeah, Erickson's made a career out being only marginally better than Trump. I'm not applauding his values so much as I'm applauding his sass.
posted by octobersurprise at 3:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Can transport workers strike by refusing to collect fares? That way they would increase financial pressure on management by keeping maintenance/fuel costs up but pushing revenue to zero, and at the same time avoid alienating customers.

They're already striking For Real, in case that was unclear; buses and trolley's are shut down across Philadelphia. Rail is still operating, as that's under a separate union which has a different contract with a different renewal schedule, but with substantial delays due to overcrowding. SEPTA's management has said they'll obtain an injunction to force them back to work on election day, which has not yet happened, despite today being the stated deadline.
posted by cjelli at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016


WHAT DO THINK THIS IS, A PERSONALITY QUIZ? IF YOU DON'T WANT TRUMP, VOTE CLINTON. AAAAUUUUUUGHGHGHGHGHGHG

Welcome to the electoral college.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


And if you don't believe the campaign sees this as an issue, Obama will be going to New Hampshire on Monday. Obama is President of the United States. You don't send the President of the United States to a state worth 4 electoral votes on election eve if your Major Concern Button hasn't started flashing.
posted by Justinian at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I know this is meant to be helpful, but only looking at the one poll with good news is how Romney & Friends "knew" they had it in the bag. I'm concerned that's MeFi is starting to build its own bubble and not looking at the reality of what has happened to the race
From a totally practical point of view, I don't know what difference it would make whether I was overconfident or not. At this point, I'm going to be doing everything that I can no matter who is ahead and by how much. If I freak out, I'll just do it in a more sleep-deprived state. I think my best course of action is to avoid the news and focus on GOTV until Wednesday.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Well that was a bit word salad. I blame excitement and being sick. Anyway, leadership people. Part of the problem is leadership. It really does matter that Mitch McConnell says shitty things.
posted by R343L at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016


All those shots from space of the big blue marble? Fake?

They're all from an angle where you can't see the elephants and the turtle underneath. Duh.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


'Starship Troopers' Reboot in the Works (Exclusive)

Because what we all really need right now is more glorification of fascism from an author with well-known blind spots of racism and sexism, right?
posted by zachlipton at 3:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Or alternately, Justinian, Obama is there to help make sure Ayotte loses her seat to the Democratic challenger, Maggie Hassan. It probably has very little to do with whether Clinton wins New Hampshire at all.
posted by R343L at 3:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [51 favorites]


The original novel for Starship Troopers had Johnny Rico being Filipino, taking place in a future, while despotic and militaristic, was very egalitarian on matters of race and gender. Heinlein was also big about hiding the ethnicities of his characters in other works.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


I guess we'll find out on Tuesday, R343L.
posted by Justinian at 3:31 PM on November 3, 2016


All of this hand wringing can be rendered completely null and void with a nice win in North Carolina or, especially, Florida. So come on guys you can do it. We believe in you.
posted by Justinian at 3:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


There's now a Florida script on the phone banking website, should you wish to direct your calls there.
posted by zachlipton at 3:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


They're already striking For Real, in case that was unclear
I recognize that... Commiting to run transport services without collecting fares on election day seems like a good way to head off an injunction, that's all.
...today we have two polls showing Trump with a lead in New Hampshire
Looks like I might be visiting NH this weekend.
Because what we all really need right now is more glorification of fascism from an author
FWIW, Verhoeven's Starship Troopers satirized Heinlein pretty brutally.
posted by Coventry at 3:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]



The original novel for Starship Troopers had Johnny Rico being Filipino, taking place in a future, while despotic and militaristic, was very egalitarian on matters of race and gender.


Heinlein's politics vary by who he was married to at the time.
posted by BS Artisan at 3:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


Yeah, his early works had him as a proto-feminist, but he declined over time.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


I don't really understand vote trading... aren't you taking a huge risk? It's not enforceable! What if this tricks people into giving away their vote in some way that is bad? Am I not understanding it well?

Yes; true; it's a possibility; no, you understand it just fine.

And this is why despite getting mooted in the fourth week of October every four years, vote-trading never really took off. There's no legal way to enforce adherence, and so it relies on trust between partisans on the most directly partisan of issues (how to vote) at the most polarized moment (election day).

I suppose it could be of limited value in specific, tight-knit cross-state communities. Like maybe Mormons in Idaho could switch their McMuffin votes with potential Trump-voting cousins across the border in Utah to win our favorite breakfast food his delectable six EVs.

Or, I think I saw someone posting a two-for-one exchange site where third-party voters in swing states trade their vote for two major-party candidate votes in a safe state -- that way, they get more overall votes which helps them with barriers to entry and such, and the major-party voters get a half-vote in Swing State as opposed to a useless vote in Safe State. That seems more plausible as both sides are not really in competition. Still seems kinda silly though.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


NYTimes Donald Trump Can’t Count on Those ‘Missing White Voters’
The possibility that the missing white voters were conservative populists, primed to support a candidate like Mr. Trump, was never supported by much evidence. But it was used to justify a strategy that eschewed gains among nonwhite and moderate voters in favor of larger margins with conservative white voters.

This year, Mr. Trump’s gains among missing white voters aren’t likely to be even enough to overcome four years of demographic shifts, let alone form the basis of a lasting political coalition.

These findings are based on an Upshot analysis of voter registration data nationwide, as well as Upshot/Siena College polls of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania.

These polls were linked to voter registration and vote history data: We can tell which respondents voted in 2012, or whether they were registered.[...]According to these data, it’s Mrs. Clinton — not Mr. Trump — who stands to gain from a surge of new voters.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


Growing increasingly nauseated with each sign of Republicans sadly, predictably falling in line, now that Trump has some viability again. So, with tomorrow likely being a big news day, like the last few Fridays have been, I'm thinking about this:
I’ve known Jeff [Epstein] for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life.
– Donald Trump

Q: Have you ever had a personal relationship with Donald Trump?
A. What do you mean by "personal relationship," sir?
Q. Have you socialized with him?
A. Yes, sir.
Q. Yes?
A. Yes, sir.
Q. Have you ever socialized with Donald Trump in the presence of females under the age of 18?
A: Though I'd like to answer that question, at least today I'm going to have to assert my Fifth, Sixth, and 14th Amendment rights, sir.
– from Epstein's deposition in a suit brought by one of his child victims
What I wonder is if tomorrow incontrovertible evidence comes out that Trump is a serial child rapist—because, let's face it, he probably is—how would the GOP pivot to defending child rape? I'm absolutely certain at this point that they would, I just don't know what angle they would take.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 3:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [35 favorites]


After 2000, it is absolutely insane there wasn't some sort of major campaign to amend the Constitution and get rid of the electoral college. Get rid of first-past-the-post voting while you're at it, so third parties can actually be viable. Vote trading simply reminds us how utterly malfunctioning our electoral system is. And that's why I remain resolute in being apathetic towards voting third party in non-swing states. If you're not in a battleground, then vote your conscience. That is what the bizarre reality that geographical privilege has gifted you in America.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


'Starship Troopers' Reboot in the Works (Exclusive)

Film history reboots itself; first as satire, second as documentary.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Vox: Third-party voters are “trading votes” with Clinton voters to defeat Trump

This a special kind of fucking stupid only third party voters are capable of sustaining. There's no such thing as a "safe state" for Clinton, if enough of you morons don't vote for her, she will lose. This is too clever twice over, like a 19yr old tech-bro's first start-up to pick up dog poop in San Francisco.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


how would the GOP pivot to defending child rape?

depends on the evidence

Statement from victim = she's a liar
Confession from Trump = just locker room talk
Video proof = he was a Democrat back then
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [80 favorites]


how would the GOP pivot to defending child rape

By throwing the child under the bus, of course. She came to the party willingly, she lied about her age, she knew sex is how you get ahead in the business, look at what she was wearing, she had makeup on, she looked like she was 18, and why did she wait so long to complain?

That is what they will say. Oh, and that it's all lies.
posted by suelac at 3:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]


wait, where are there $2 happy hour frozen margaritas?? I may need that on election night.
posted by Gymnopedist at 3:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Wait, I'm confused. Do we have a reason to think tomorrow's supposed revelations pertain to child rape, or are you guys just riffing on something?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:42 PM on November 3, 2016


That is what they will say. Oh, and that it's all lies.

Don't forget "she's not pretty enough to rape, just look at her".
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 3:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


lol at the idea of a constitutional amendment happening ever again

To propose an amendment:
The Constitution provides that an amendment may be proposed either by the Congress with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures.

To ratify a proposed amendment:
After being officially proposed, either by Congress or a national convention of the states, a constitutional amendment must then be ratified by three-fourths of the states. Congress is authorized to choose whether a proposed amendment will be sent to the state legislatures or to state ratifying conventions for ratification.

An amendment that says "Puppies are cute," wouldn't pass, much less anything even slightly more controversial.
posted by entropicamericana at 3:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


@PaulaReid .@CBSNews confirms FBI found emails on #AnthonyWeiner computer, related to Hillary Clinton server, that are "new" & not previously reviewed.

Don't panic. "New" does not equate to criminal or incriminating. There is every probability that these new emails are to or from Huma and to or from someone else. Didn't a lot of her staff use the Hillary Clinton server for their emails?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:43 PM on November 3, 2016


After 2000, it is absolutely insane there wasn't some sort of major campaign to amend the Constitution and get rid of the electoral college. Get rid of first-past-the-post voting while you're at it, so third parties can actually be viable.

If you could just convince thirty-four states for a constitutional amendment for getting rid of the EC and all fifty states to get rid of FTTP we'll be in business.

Sadly, the people who control 30-something of those states are controlled by people who are keen to see their fiefdoms remain gerrymandered and not let third party candidates get a look in. We can't even get the NPVIC passed in 270 electoral votes (we're at 165) despite pushing like hell.

But whatever, we're insane and there's no political reality of very powerful people pushing against this to deal with at all.
posted by Talez at 3:44 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


There's no such thing as a "safe state" for Clinton, if enough of you morons don't vote for her, she will lose.

That's the paradox, innit? You don't want to vote in a way that would cause the greater evil to win. But if you're in a solid state, others are already doing that dirty work for you. So you're more likely to vote for a third party candidate if they're less likely to gain significant support to throw the election to the greater evil. That said, it is laughable that states such as NY or CA will somehow flip decades upon decades of past voting behavior, defy poll analysis, and somehow become unsafe states.

Give us the Condorcet voting already
posted by Apocryphon at 3:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


OMG, this fucking election. I was talking with my kids over dinner and my 16 YO was describing noticing the phenomenon that we on MeFi shorthand as "IOKIYAR". I started talking about yes, that's exactly what happened when WJ Clinton was impeached, all of the major players were later revealed to have been adulterers and molesters *while the impeachment process was underway*. The 16YO corrected me that WJC wasn't impeached for having an affair but for lying under oath. I exploded in a 15 minute rant about Republican witch hunting, all the things that came to a standstill because the leader of the free world had to testify in the most intimate terms about his sexual practices, Monica Lewinsky's ruined life. Reader, I ranted in front of my 12 year old about the blue dress.

This. Fucking. Election.
posted by Sublimity at 3:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [86 favorites]


It's not that complicated. You're not going to get 3/4ths of the states to agree to an amendment that would decrease the influence of more than 1/4th of the states. The same inequality that is baked into the electoral college is also baked into the process for amending the Constitution, so it's not going to get changed by Constitutional amendment.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


lol at the idea of a constitutional amendment happening ever again

The ERA was being fought for as late as 1979, which isn't exactly ancient history.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


After 2000, it is absolutely insane there wasn't some sort of major campaign to amend the Constitution and get rid of the electoral college.

People are working on it
posted by indubitable at 3:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


(I should add, people are working on a work-around because, yeah, good luck ever amending the US constitution)
posted by indubitable at 3:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


NYTimes Donald Trump Can’t Count on Those ‘Missing White Voters’

Here's the thing. Donald Trump and his deplorables are old white people. They grew up in a society where there were pretty much only white people on TV, in the newspapers, running for office, etc. and so 2016 is very confusing for them.

Trump was born in 1946, just look at the stats for race & ethnicity in the US in the 40s & 50s when he was growing up. Nearly 9 in 10 Americans were white and practically all the rest were disenfranchised and fully segregated black people. It was peak white, historically speaking. (Now Hillary also is about the same age, but she's spent her entire life working in Democratic politics alongside people who were not all upper-middle-class white folks. Trump has not.) And since the 70s they've maintained the illusion by drawing ever-more precarious electoral boundary maps. That bubble hasn't quite burst yet, but it's coming.

There's a very simple reason that Trump and the Deplorables can't count on those 'missing white voters'. Because a lot of them are dead. It's not the 1960s, even, anymore. And unlike the Dems, they are only now realizing this because the nasty old bubble gum they've been chewing since 1955 has finally lost its elasticity and it blew up all over their face in 2008.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]


The ERA was being fought for as late as 1979, which isn't exactly ancient history.

the political climate has changed a little since 1979
posted by entropicamericana at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


But whatever, we're insane and there's no political reality of very powerful people pushing against this to deal with at all.

He's not powerful in the least, but it sure would have been nice if Lawrence Lessig has been allowed on stage at the early debates of the DNC, so at the very least he would get a chance to pitch to the American people the concept of electoral reform.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Trump and Clinton have both landed at Raleigh airport. Dang. I didn't realize Trump was going to be around here as well.

@Acosta Trump speech in NC tonight to focus on national defense. 7 Medal of Honor recipients to join Trump on stage, I'm told.

Wonder how much of his national defense plan involves locking Hillary up?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Posted this in the election volunteering thread on MetaTalk, but that's buried pretty deep now so posting it here too:
Ugh, got my first Trump supporter. Claimed the Clinton campaign got her number illegally and said she can't tell me the number of people she's told she's not a Clinton supporter (would support her going to jail not the White House). Says she's not saying that I'm doing anything illegal of course, but wouldn't put it past the Clinton campaign, of course. Well, I guess it had to happen some time, and to be honest, it wasn't thaaaaat bad. She wasn't personally rude to me.
posted by peacheater at 3:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


The ERA was being fought for as late as 1979, which isn't exactly ancient history.

I can remember 1979 myself but it was a pretty darn long time ago. It's very different country now.
posted by octothorpe at 3:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


You don't send the President of the United States to a state worth 4 electoral votes on election eve if your Major Concern Button hasn't started flashing.

Once more with feeling: this close in, you start running out of places to go based on the electoral map and the finite nature of time and the availability of venues. The trip to Arizona and Nevada yesterday was the last western swing. From now on, it's Ohio and NC and Florida and Philly and Pittsburgh and Detroit. NH doesn't do early voting. PA doesn't do early voting. MI doesn't do early voting.
posted by holgate at 3:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Oh boy. The War on Christmas has already started. Seems like every year it starts earlier and earlier. I remember the good old days when the War on Christmas didn't start until after Thanksgiving.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


I just want to beg everyone who isn't actually a Stalinist to stop muttering about Hillary "purging" the FBI and anywhere else of those who have wronged her. It's not a great look. Let's stick to politics rather than authoritarian fantasies, in my humble opinion.

Obviously it's important to go by the book. But we know that an internal investigation has already been opened.

Someone should be filing complaints with the DOJ Inspector General RIGHT NOW. After the election, Obama can talk about it and promote it and encourage it. Hopefully even as we speak, someone is taking steps to figure out who is leaking to the WSJ and other sources.

The Inspector General should fully investigate, ideally in time for the Obama Administration to fire people if appropriate. Even if not, a process begun before Hillary takes office, through the normal channels, is perfectly appropriate.

Also, firing people is fine but reprimanding and suspending those involved will kill their careers and make sure they aren't in leadership positions in the future, without drawing the massive heat that a large scale firing would. Also, the problems seem localized in New York, and there's certainly nothing wrong with rotating people out of a dysfunctional office. To Alaska, Wyoming, etc, places full of conservatives. NYC has to be one of the favorite postings for FBI agents.
posted by msalt at 3:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


peacheater: FWIW, it's possible that no one from the phone bank you're calling from ever called her before. But the a state democratic campaign might have. Or some other progressive cause did and she mistook them as being from the Clinton campaign (seriously a lot of people only pay attention to the presidential race). And data isn't shared immediately so far as I know and that's all assuming whoever called her before correctly marked her as a Trump supporter. :(
posted by R343L at 3:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


Wait, I'm confused. Do we have a reason to think tomorrow's supposed revelations pertain to child rape, or are you guys just riffing on something?

I doubt it. Rick Wilson is heavily implying that the Newsweek story is based on his tip, and he's said many times that neither of his two pieces of oppo relate to the rape case.
posted by acidic at 3:59 PM on November 3, 2016


This group is actively trying to start an Article V convention, which could pass new amendments. You need 2/3 of the States to call for that.
posted by thelonius at 4:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


He's not powerful in the least, but it sure would have been nice if Lawrence Lessig has been allowed on stage at the early debates of the DNC, so at the very least he would get a chance to pitch to the American people the concept of electoral reform.

It would have been nice but then he basically came out of the gate with "this is a stunt, I will do what I want which is politically unfeasible anyway holding only the executive and then resign" which is great when you consider what being POTUS actually entails. Which is why I didn't crowdfund it when it came up. Like, I know white people love raising awareness but it was an entirely unproductive exercise.
posted by Talez at 4:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


I'd like to speak up for vote trading. I think it's great. MA or VT or OR or something aren't going Red, it's just not happening. But literally every single vote in Florida is important. If you live in Florida and just can't live with yourself voting for the D candidate, or genuinely want to support the alternative but you also want to stop the Rs, getting that extra boost to actually get out and cast your ballot is easily worth the trouble for the Blue state voter.

Ideally it would be relatively risk free. The person in the blue state could vote early for Stein or write in Bernie or whatever and send a Snapchat snap to the swing state voter. Sure there's some risk of welching but what gets lost if they do back out?

If I was a billionaire tech nerd I'd build a site to enable it. As a side product it might get 3rd parties a reason to actually try to have some real policies instead of a colllection of genie wishes.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


I'm phone banking in Somerville and I just got my first live wire! Some woman just told me that because she got "eleven pieces of mail yesterday and fifteen today," she was "through with the election". She then slammed the phone down.

I hope she steps in a pile of fresh dog feces.
posted by pxe2000 at 4:03 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


Reader, I ranted in front of my 12 year old about the blue dress.

It's OK. They need these memories to understand politics and why you vote the way you do. I remember Thanksgiving dinner with my now wife's family when we were 15 years old, and her mom telling the story of how she was teaching 7th grade French in 1981 when she heard Reagan had been shot. Her words were something like, "They came in and said the President had been shot, and I had to act shocked for the kids and turn on the news, but I ran right out to the teacher's lounge to make sure they had got him, so the kids wouldn't see me cheer". Then she did explain how they had hated Reagan's lies and "trickle down" from the beginning, how her dad was in a union, my wife's father was a democratic precinct captain, and so on. Kids shouldn't be shielded from your real feelings and politics, that's how you accidentally raise an Ayn Rand follower. Just remember to back up your emotional reaction with the reasons why, and make sure they understand it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [32 favorites]


> Trump speech in NC tonight to focus on national defense.

Every time I think of a Trump speech, I think of Markov Chains - reading this was enough, I couldn't take it anymore as the curiosity was killing me... so I had to run one of Trumps prior speeches through a Markov Chain generator:

This July, recruiting to CNN, ISIS was obsolete because internet this July, in Germany. More political stamina to then-Secretary. The major difference beginning in some what a clear were dead to America.

Oversee. We Must Work Together Agained as a rally. We will work side-by-side in our institutions, beheadings and immigration of exporting death that slaughtered, girls are murdered out and disabled threat champions. I will be all ask the United States.

In serve as our President, In winning or extinguished. The failures in Iraq, and allow tradition is deemed safe Again.

A new approach, when purpose of Forces Agreement and other entitlement benefits that thread the direct religion – so the common – and teaching hate will be used.


Some of this doesn't seem that far off....
posted by MysticMCJ at 4:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]


If I was a billionaire tech nerd I'd build a site to enable it.

They did. The CA SoS at the time threatened to sue the shit out of the site owners if they continued because it was basically simultaneously buying and selling a vote.
posted by Talez at 4:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Some woman just told me that because she got "eleven pieces of mail yesterday and fifteen today," she was "through with the election".

"I am so sick of junk mail that I'm willing to let Trump and/or Clinton whom I hate to become President just so I don't have to look at anymore junk mail. I don't care about loss of rights and/or other important to me issues nearly as much as I care about how much paper I have to touch long enough to throw away."
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


Yeah, I'm with Justinian on this one. I don't want to freak anybody out, and you know, I'm pretty much happily doing what I need to be doing, and I wouldn't mind stress eating because my health would improve if I had more meat on my bones.

But anytime I hear people going after the polls, I remember Romney. And as somebody else said upthread, I remember 2000 and 2004.

In 2000, I had just been broken up with and had all this drama, had been in love with B Clinton, fell very much out of love with him, and wasn't enchanted with Gore. I wasn't like *oh he lied about the internet* or *he SIGHED* or whatever, I just was like, Bill let me down, this joker GWB can't possibly win, dutifully voted, then--wait, what? What the fuck just happened?

And then in 2004, it very much felt like a kick to the stomach. Because it wasn't, oh, the country done fucked up once, we'll sort it out now, it was--people didn't like Kerry because he was stiff? Are you fucking kidding me with this fucked-up ness? Americans are that stupid. Right? Right?

Maybe 538 is wrong and y'all who are but Sam Wang are right on the money, and my musing: hmm a Trump presidency is actually a possibility is misguided.

But I would frankly rather know exactly what states to be looking at, and while I've heard criticism about 538's numbers being off, I haven't heard that 538 is wrong about Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida are the states that I don't know, decide whether it's apocalypse nowish?

I appreciate hearing what's going on with those states. I'm assured by the NV and CO numbers and for some reason 538 now has NC as light blue. So that's all cool.

Still too fucking close by a mile, though.
posted by angrycat at 4:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


There seems to be some confusion as to the idea that vote trading was invented just for this election, when TFA from Vox mentions that it came up as early as 2000. Surely New Mexico and Florida could've benefited from that then.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:08 PM on November 3, 2016


The one illogical thing, among many, that stands out in my mind, is WTF? The FBI has a twitter account? Are you kidding me. The one time Secretaries of State had private servers for email, they tried their best to keep secure, and the FBI has a twitter account, that any agent, or any supervisor, or any talking head FBI person can riff on? This is no, no, no, no.

The military has the Stars and Stripes, they say whatever they want, which I find terrible, at best, then lifer federal employees are tweeting the contents of investigations. It is as if the IRS were tweeting, Oh Yeah, Oh Yeah, we're gonna get us some offa whomever. Even I don't have a twitter account, I finally reached a point of saying realistically, "Self, how many ways are you going to say the same thing, and who are you going to say it to?"
posted by Oyéah at 4:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


They did. The CA SoS at the time threatened to sue the shit out of the site owners if they continued because it was basically simultaneously buying and selling a vote.


Lollll it's obvious why I'm not a billionaire.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Well, things are quickly going to shit in Turkey. Nothing like a little preview of Trump's America.

@nateschenkkan
Turkey appears to be arresting all the HDP MPs, third-largest party in parliament. This is it, people.

@nateschenkkan
This has been coming since the elections on June 7, 2015, when the HDP's success broke the AKP's majority in parliament.

@nateschenkkan
In under two years, HDP has gone from being the government's interlocutor for peace to its mortal enemy.

@mutludc
Demirtas of HDP: "Security forces are at my home door in Diyarbakir now, with a forced detention order."
posted by chris24 at 4:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [44 favorites]


They should have a tv show: Are you smarter than a billionaire?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:11 PM on November 3, 2016


Oyéah: I sincerely doubt just anyone in the agency has access to FBI official twitter account. There's probably a media team that controls all of them and decides how they are used.
posted by R343L at 4:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


The one illogical thing, among many, that stands out in my mind, is WTF? The FBI has a twitter account? Are you kidding me. The one time Secretaries of State had private servers for email, they tried their best to keep secure, and the FBI has a twitter account, that any agent, or any supervisor, or any talking head FBI person can riff on? This is no, no, no, no.

It's an account that they use specifically to post public notices of new documents that are made public under FOIA. It's not a random account anybody can just use to riff, nor does it have anything to do with email servers. Lots of government agencies have Twitter accounts for the purpose of communicating with the public. I do not understand you.

This specific use of the twitter account (which again, involved posting public documents, albeit curiously timed ones), is under investigation.
posted by zachlipton at 4:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


German comedian Jan Böhmermann (previously) comments on the US presidential election with a catchy new song: Grab US by the Pussy

There's also an English version of his election special (46 min): “America has given us so much: bodybuilding, MacGyver, and lactose-free soy lattes.”
posted by blasser duenner Junge at 4:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


The one illogical thing, among many, that stands out in my mind, is WTF? The FBI has a twitter account? Are you kidding me

Yeah! Those dummies! What possible reason could there be for the FBI to have a way to quickly reach millions of people?
posted by acidic at 4:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


Oyéah: I sincerely doubt just anyone in the agency has access to FBI official twitter account. There's probably a media team that controls all of them and decides how they are used.

Actually, there's probably a GS-10/12 position called something like "public affairs specialist" who's in charge of those accounts. Someone in the FBI controls that account, who it is, why the timing, and whether they were influenced by particular team of agents in the NYC office are the interesting questions.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


@jeneps
Hillary Clinton and Pharrell just made a surprise stop at North Carolina Central University, an HBCU in Durham [pic]

@jeneps
Aide says there's now a huge line of people walking to a nearby early voting site
posted by chris24 at 4:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [37 favorites]


NBC News Exclusive: White House Readies to Fight Election Day Cyber Mayhem
The U.S. government believes hackers from Russia or elsewhere may try to undermine next week's presidential election and is mounting an unprecedented effort to counter their cyber meddling, American officials told NBC News.

The effort is being coordinated by the White House and the Department of Homeland Security, but reaches across the government to include the CIA, the National Security Agency and other elements of the Defense Department, current and former officials say. [...]

Officials are alert for any attempts to create Election Day chaos, and say steps are being taken to prepare for worst-case scenarios, including a cyber-attack that shuts down part of the power grid or the internet.

But what is more likely, multiple U.S. officials say, is a lower-level effort by hackers from Russia or elsewhere to peddle misinformation by manipulating Twitter, Facebook and other social media platforms.

For example, officials fear an 11th hour release of fake documents implicating one of the candidates in an explosive scandal without time for the news media to fact check it. So far, document dumps attributed to the Russians have damaged Democrats and favored Trump.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]


But anytime I hear people going after the polls, I remember Romney.

Romney and Obama were neck-and-neck in the weeks before the election, and half the national polls had Romney in the lead. That is not currently the case with Clinton and Trump.
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


I've got a bad feeling about GOP rhetoric, and the FBI, which is that they are ramping. That is, they are pyschologically building themselves up. Now we're seeing talk of impeaching Hilary on day one.

I'm not sure that the Republicans and Trump are going to accept the election results, at all. I think that they may just declare them all invalid on Wednesday. Demand a recount.

Civil war may be upon us, no matter what happens on Tuesday. No matter what the electoral college says.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 4:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


So at a school in Virginia, the principal and a secretary dressed up as Trump and Clinton-in-a-prision-uniform for Halloween, to the usual outrage, angry parents, school board superintendent saying stuff, you know the drill.

Hey, I wonder what the name of the school is. Robert E. Lee High School.
posted by zachlipton at 4:21 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]


Romney and Obama were neck-and-neck in the weeks before the election, and half the national polls had Romney in the lead. That is not currently the case with Clinton and Trump.

Depends on if you count tracking polls or not.
posted by Justinian at 4:22 PM on November 3, 2016


...there's probably a GS-10/12 position called something like "public affairs specialist" who's in charge of those accounts
I bet there are multiple people with de facto access, though, so there will be a cloud of deniability around the whole thing.
posted by Coventry at 4:22 PM on November 3, 2016


Atlantic Why Is Hillary Clinton So Widely Loved?
We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton, who support her because of her qualifications rather than because of her unqualified opponent, who empathize with her. Yet millions of Americans, women and men, love her intelligence, her industriousness, her grit; they feel loyal to her, they will vote with enthusiasm for her.

Human beings change as they grow, but a person’s history speaks to who she is. There are millions who admire the tapestry of Hillary Clinton’s past: the first-ever student commencement speaker at Wellesley speaking boldly about making the impossible possible, the Yale law student interested in the rights of migrant farmworkers, the lawyer working with the Children’s Defense Fund, the first lady trying to make health care accessible for all Americans.

There are people who love how cleanly she slices through policy layers, how thoroughly she digests the small print. They remember that she won two terms to the United States Senate, where she was not only well-regarded but was known to get along with Republicans. They have confidence in her. There are people who rage at the media on her behalf, who see the coverage she too often receives as unfair. There are people who in a quiet, human way wish her well. There are people who, when Hillary Clinton becomes the first woman to be president of the United States, will weep from joy.
For sure I will be weeping with a combination of joy and relief.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [73 favorites]


Wow. The Guardian article that zombieflanders linked above, titled "The FBI is Trumpland", just came across my Facebook feed – without comment, but posted by an FBI agent I've known for 40 years.
posted by Now I'm Prune Tracy! at 4:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [62 favorites]


Reposting from an earlier election post, for those who are interested:
If you know anyone in a swing state who wants to support a third-party, suggest they take a look at Trump Traders, who will match their single vote for Clinton in a swing state for two votes for a third-party candidate of their choice in a state that's safe for the Democrats. That gets the third party closer to the 5% level which will let them compete more effectively next time around and it helps stop Trump's election.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


two votes for a third-party candidate of their choice in a state that's safe for the Democrats.

Once more, with feeling: If enough people do this, the state won't be safe for Democrats any more. Math is hard, but not that hard.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


wait wait wait, two votes for the Green or Libertarian clownshow for one vote for Clinton?

are they fucking kidding me with this shit?
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]


Actually, I lied... two of the tracking polls moved back towards Clinton so only the LA Times still has Trump leading. That's good.
posted by Justinian at 4:32 PM on November 3, 2016


I'm phone banking in Somerville and I just got my first live wire! Some woman just told me that because she got "eleven pieces of mail yesterday and fifteen today," she was "through with the election". She then slammed the phone down.

I hope she steps in a pile of fresh dog feces.

To be fair, a lot of people really do feel like they're being hounded. This election is my first time living in a swing state (NC). The amount of mail and phone calls I've been receiving from people who I'm aware do mean well, but sometimes calling at weird hours like 8:30PM, has been nuts. I'm not sure if it makes it more or less annoying that the previous residents of the house I moved into were Republicans. So not only do I get my own political mail, but theirs too. You can't turn on the TV without seeing awful commercials about every single person running, and so many of these commercials sound like they were written by 5 year-olds for 5 year-olds. It's super annoying. I wish I, as someone who already voted, could disable these commercials and the mail I keep getting about them. (Doesn't give someone the right to be rude to you on the phone.)

But I am excited to hear that Hillary is in town!!!! Yay!!!!!
posted by bananana at 4:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Yeah, it's not a great idea. A state is safe until it's not, and the more common talk is about protest voting, vote trading and just safe states in general, the more likely people are to try and game the system and rely on others to do the right thing while they fuck around.
posted by gusottertrout at 4:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Reuters U.S. court deals Trump a setback in poll-monitor fight
In Pennsylvania, Trump's poll-monitoring plan faces a significant hurdle because state law requires partisan poll watchers to perform their duties in the county in which they are registered to vote.

That could make it difficult to recruit monitors in places like Philadelphia, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a ratio of eight to one. The city has 120,000 registered Republicans and 1,685 voting locations.

The Pennsylvania Republican Party sought to suspend that requirement so that poll monitors could come from anywhere in the state, which would enable them to bring in supporters from suburban and rural areas where Trump has stronger support.

But U.S. District Judge Gerald Pappert said that would be too disruptive to change the law less than a week before Tuesday's vote.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


German comedian Jan Böhmermann (previously) comments on the US presidential election with a catchy new song

Can't wait for the Donald's lawsuit - for copyright infringement, ' course.
posted by progosk at 4:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Once more, with feeling: If enough people do this, the state won't be safe for Democrats any more. Math is hard, but not that hard.

And the reality is, the math will never ever ever get to a case to flip NY, or CA, or any of the other West Coast/Northeastern states. Except maybe NH. That's why you be smart and focus on states with comfortably large margins.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


The Florida house race I mentioned in the last thread (FL-07, Democrat challenger Stephanie Murphy trying to unseat Republican John Mica) has been upgraded from toss up to lean democrat!
posted by everybody had matching towels at 4:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]


This group is actively trying to start an Article V convention, which could pass new amendments. You need 2/3 of the States to call for that.

Note that their simulated convention in September had the modest and achievable goals of requiring the states to approve any increase in the national debt, imposing term limits, limiting the Commerce Clause to its original meaning, limiting the power of federal regulations, requiring a supermajority to impose federal taxes, repealing the 16th Amendment (federal income tax), and giving the states the power to abrogate any federal law, regulation, or executive order. Nothing much.

2/3 of the states are required, which is 34 out of 50. At this moment, Republicans control all state legislatures in 30 out of 50, and 8 have split control. The 3/4 to pass such amendments is 38/50. Part of the purpose of pushing for every possible vote for Democrats is to reverse that trend and squash even the thought of such a convention happening.

Now, the other comfort is that those who want an Article V convention are also spreading the quaint belief that it can be limited to the topics and amendments of their choosing, and that they can prevent the left and center from proposing their own amendments. This belief is unsupported by the Constitution, to put it succinctly. A full-blown wild-card convention is sufficiently dangerous that no one outside of archconservative dingbats and Lawrence Lessig wants one.
posted by delfin at 4:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]



Wow. The Guardian article that zombieflanders linked above, titled "The FBI is Trumpland", just came across my Facebook feed – without comment, but posted by an FBI agent I've known for 40 years.


The biggest Trump supporter on my FB friends list is a lifelong Chicago Police Department officer. I keep him unhidden because he gives me a healthy reminder why I got the fuck out of that city when I left for college and didn't look back.
posted by ocschwar at 4:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]



To be fair, a lot of people really do feel like they're being hounded


Yeah, I'm going to be wearing my sheepish face canvassing this weekend. People are sick to death of it, but about half the people I actually talked to last weekend were truly valuable voter contracts with people who needed to know where their polling place was, or who hadn't really considered voting and hadn't made plans to do so, and one enthusiastic new volunteer. The other 50% were like omg geeze you people have already been here like 8 times! So it's still important to do but it's tough to ride that line between making those valuable contacts while not also pissing off the likely voters. I'll have my son with me Saturday, so the cuteness might help with that.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]


that's when he told me that even if the evil woman I supported became POTUS, she wouldn't be able to thwart the will of God.

If I were Christian, I would say, "I agree - but what makes you think you know what that will is?"

Claiming this or that politician "cannot thwart God's will": part of standard doctrine for the faith.
Claiming that "God's will" matches the wishes or predictions of any particular human media or other group: extreme hubris.

It's endlessly entertaining to me how many Christians find that God's will matches exactly their own prejudices, and how quickly they insist that their grandparents, who were equally devout and equally certain, were mistaken. "God's will" was used as an excuse to deny women and people of color the right to vote, to murder LGBT people, to keep slaves, to condone child abuse, and pretty much ever other vicious thing people have done to each other.

I maintain my believe that if an omnipotent being wants something to happen, he doesn't need Fox newscasters to convince us of its value.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]



The Florida house race I mentioned in the last thread (FL-07, Democrat challenger Stephanie Murphy trying to unseat Republican John Mica) has been upgraded from toss up to lean democrat!


I voted for Stephanie Murphy yesterday! :)
posted by Gymnopedist at 4:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


Sign report, Pittsburgh edition:

I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp, not unlike many others dotting the region. Except to its right was a similar-looking sign, with the same font, colors, and everything -- but it said:
IS
A
JAGOFF
If anyone reading this knows who's doing this, my MeMail is open, and I have a round of frosty beverages for the heroes who are out there doing this work.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [66 favorites]


We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton...
Many middle-class African-Americans love the Clintons.
posted by Coventry at 4:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]


I'm actually hearing a lot fewer complaints about being hounded this election than I have in the past. I don't know if it's because the stakes seem higher or if our ground game isn't as good. I start to worry a bit if people aren't annoyed with us, to be honest!
I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp, not unlike many others dotting the region. Except to its right was a similar-looking sign, with the same font, colors, and everything -- but it said:
IS
A
JAGOFF
Someone did something similar to this when people chalked Trump slogans on the sidewalks around campus here. It warmed my cold, cold heart. I will happily contribute to the beer fund.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Well, I'm in Virginia, which I think we can agree is a safe Clinton state, so if any Trump voter in a swing state wants to trade votes with me and also hear about exciting opportunities in the commemorative plate market, send me your email address and we can set something up.
posted by indubitable at 4:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


Following up on my Clinton impeachment rant: my kids and I just watched Lewinsky's TED talk about cyber bullying, in which she talks about her experience. My kids, they got it.
posted by Sublimity at 4:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS IS, A PERSONALITY QUIZ? IF YOU DON'T WANT TRUMP, VOTE CLINTON. AAAAUUUUUUGH
I believe the point of trading third party votes is to get 5% of the popular vote without screwing up the electoral college. That's the magic percentage to get federal funding for your party.
posted by xyzzy at 4:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


Yeah, I'm going to be wearing my sheepish face canvassing this weekend.
It's useful to keep in mind when you're canvassing that you're doing people a favor by helping them to do the right thing on election day.
posted by Coventry at 4:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


Buzzfeed: How Macedonia Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation
Over the past year, the central Macedonian town of Veles (population 45,000) has experienced a digital gold rush as locals launched at least 140 US politics websites. These sites have American-sounding domain names such as WorldPoliticUS.com, TrumpVision365.com, USConservativeToday.com, DonaldTrumpNews.co, and USADailyPolitics.com. They almost all publish aggressively pro-Trump content aimed at conservatives and Trump supporters in the US.

The young Macedonians who run these sites don’t care about Donald Trump. They are responding to straightforward economic incentives: as Facebook regularly reveals in earnings reports, a US Facebook user is worth about four times a user outside the US. The fraction-of-a-penny-per-click of U.S. display advertising — a declining market for American publishers — goes a long way in Veles. Several teens and young men who run these sites told BuzzFeed News that they learned the best way to generate traffic is to get their politics stories to spread on Facebook — and the best way to generate shares on Facebook is to publish sensationalist and often false content that caters to Trump supporters.

As a result, this strange hub of pro-Trump sites in Macedonia is now playing a significant role in propagating the kind of false and misleading content that was identified in a recent BuzzFeed News analysis of hyperpartisan Facebook pages. These sites open a window into the economic incentives behind producing misinformation specifically for the wealthiest advertising markets and specifically for Facebook, the world’s largest social network, as well as within online advertising networks such as Google AdSense.

“Yes, the info in the blogs is bad, false and misleading but the rationale is that ‘if it gets the people to click on it and engage, then use it,’” said a university student in Veles who started a US politics site, and who agreed to speak on the condition that BuzzFeed News not use his name.
posted by zachlipton at 4:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [55 favorites]


Buzzfeed: How Macedonia Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation

how did this not make it into HyperNormalisation?
posted by indubitable at 4:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


wait, where are there $2 happy hour frozen margaritas?? I may need that on election night.

Applebee's at least. And they're not bad, though I had them in August when they were $1, now they are apparently $2.
posted by threeturtles at 4:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


zachlipton, that's an amazing story. I thought I had heard it all with the paid Russian trolls pretending to be Americans in the comments section. Now this.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]


My main issue with 538 is that their methods are closed-source and there aren't a lot of details about them, and that while each of the individual steps they talk about e.g. here seem to make sense, it's also a pretty ad-hoc method with a lot of moving parts and those tend to be difficult to reason about. I just can't tell whether 538 is double-counting national trends or not based on their description of the method. In contrast, if they were throwing everything into an established modeling framework (and esp. if they made that framework public, or semi-public) it would be a lot easier to tell whether they'd specified the model correctly.

Empirically, it does seem like 538 is the most volatile of the poll aggregators: even other aggregators that do take into account the national trends and inter-state correlations, like this Slate one (from Pierre-Antoine Kremp, who uses an established modeling framework -- currently 88% for Clinton), currently have a substantially higher chance of a Clinton win. It's possible 538 is right and everyone else is wrong, but given that the other people doing these calculations are at least equally qualified I'm inclined to mentally down-weight the outlier (in this case, 538).
posted by en forme de poire at 5:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]


Hillary Clinton and Pharrell just made a surprise stop at North Carolina Central University

She stopped at UNCG and NC A&T last Thursday (the first day of early voting) after a rally at Wake Forest. These rallies and unannounced stops aren't simply "get out the vote": they're "here's a map to the early voting location and volunteers to guide you."
posted by holgate at 5:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


Earlier in the year, some in Veles experimented with left-leaning or pro–Bernie Sanders content, but nothing performed as well on Facebook as Trump content.

Or, if commemorative plates aren't your thing, perhaps I can interest you in a time share??
posted by indubitable at 5:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp, not unlike many others dotting the region. Except to its right was a similar-looking sign, with the same font, colors, and everything -- but it said:
IS
A
JAGOFF


If we ever get another election in which levity is possible, I wholeheartedly support culture jamming of the urban landscape with road signs. If we have to drive by them for months anyway, we should at least get to see signs like FREE THE NAIROBI TRIO and GARBAGE MEN DEMAND EQUAL TIME and CANDIDATE X MOLESTS COLLIES.
posted by delfin at 5:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]


If we ever get another election in which levity is possible, I wholeheartedly support culture jamming of the urban landscape with road signs. If we have to drive by them for months anyway, we should at least get to see signs like FREE THE NAIROBI TRIO and GARBAGE MEN DEMAND EQUAL TIME and CANDIDATE X MOLESTS COLLIES.

I really wanted to revive the old Firesign Theater "PAPOON FOR PRESIDENT: HE'S NOT INSANE", but that's such an appealing promise these days that it evokes depression rather than absurdity.
posted by lumpenprole at 5:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]


Fellow Philly Mefites - I don't understand the concerns regarding the SEPTA strike. Who is taking public transportation to their polling place? The divisions are almost all tiny - the biggest I saw were about half a mile in length and those were in lightly populated areas like market east.

Is the fear that people won't have time before or after work because transportation is messed up with the strike? Is there something that I am missing?
posted by nolnacs at 5:16 PM on November 3, 2016


MetaFilter: written by 5 year-olds for 5 year-olds
posted by kirkaracha at 5:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]


FNORD/SOMA 2020!
posted by vrakatar at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I believe the point of trading third party votes is to get 5% of the popular vote without screwing up the electoral college. That's the magic percentage to get federal funding for your party.

I'm all about strategic voting! Not voting strategically in our weird-ass plurality system (plurality with binning?) means that you're less likely to get the results you want. If people want to trade, it's totally fine with me, though I'd rather see the Clinton popular vote totals run up as high as possible so she can claim an unambiguous mandate in the press.

The only real problems I have with this strategy are that 1. the federal funding is still a drop in the bucket relative to what the major parties spend, and 2. IIRC, it would also have to be spent on a presidential campaign specifically, not on e.g. actually organizing within states. And in my view that's just more money spent encouraging people to quixotically protest-vote.

Especially without voting reform or an actual split of the Republican party into moderate pro-business types and frothing tea-partiers, a third party left candidate has to actually have more support than either Dems OR Repubs in order to win; a sizable minority just ends up delivering elections to Republicans. I'm not an accelerationist so I don't see this as a good outcome. If the Green Party actually wanted to win the presidency it'd take a shit ton of organizing between elections over the next decades, plus successfully fielding candidates at the state level so there's an experienced bench to draw from. And I'm not even sure that's likely to be more successful than building out the Progressive wing of the Dems, assuming the goal is actually more leftist representation in the US Government - which I concede it might not be for some radicals.

But anyway, I still feel a lot better about Stein voters trading vs. not trading.
posted by en forme de poire at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]


There was some panic about the SEPTA strike on Twitter earlier, but even if it were going to affect polling places in the city (which as you say it shouldn't), political parties regularly drive voters to the polls anyway.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2016


Is the fear that people won't have time before or after work because transportation is messed up with the strike? Is there something that I am missing?

I suspect the fear may be that it would provoke a conservative anti-union backlash that could lead to greater Trump turnout/voting?
posted by en forme de poire at 5:21 PM on November 3, 2016


Apologies if this Inside the Trump Bunker article has been posted in previous threads, but I just came across it now. The Trump campaign actually gave Bloomberg pretty significant access and it's interesting to read about the methods to their madnesses.

The upshot is:

They know they're losing. Rather than focusing on ground game and GOTV, they're focused on voter suppression, specifically among white liberals, young women and black people. Hence the TPP stuff, the Bernie stuff, the "Hillary went after the women Bill abused" stuff, and more. They're posting some very targeted ads on Facebook.

and

Reince Preibus spent 4 years and a lot of money building an elaborate database of Republican voters, and now Trump has it.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 5:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


As a US citizen what is my best option for betting on this election. The recent uncertainty seems to have created the opportunity for a quick return. Scanning various prediction markets I see an increased the payout on a Clinton win (e.g. Betfair, Predictit, IEM), but seems like the stakes are either too low or the transaction costs are still to high. For example PredictIt had Kaine wins VP available for trading at $.68 with $1.00 payout (all others are not open to new traders). Seems like a pretty great return but then there is a 5% fee to depositing funds to your account and a 10% fee when the contract closes, plus taxes.
posted by humanfont at 5:24 PM on November 3, 2016


I participated in vote trading in 2000, which is why I voted for Nader in Texas. But it didn't make me feel any better when Gore lost. Those people in Florida still voted Nader and still lost the election. So, ultimately, I think you should vote for who you would actually like to be president. Not to make a statement or in some kind of chess move. Vote for who you think should get the job, of the people actually on the ballot.
posted by threeturtles at 5:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]




Finally, re: the Buzzfeed article on the Macedonia Trump sites, I realized as I read it that it was surrounded by headlines (in Buzzfeed) like, "You've Been Making Apple Pie Wrong This Entire Time" and "A Mom Texted Videos Of Her Dead Son’s Body To His Dad In An Alleged Revenge Killing" and got the distinct impression that the subtext of the entire article was "Game recognize game".
posted by indubitable at 5:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]


Yeah, [vote trading is] not a great idea. A state is safe until it's not, and the more common talk is about protest voting, vote trading and just safe states in general, the more likely people are to try and game the system and rely on others to do the right thing while they fuck around.

Maybe, but the reality is that a vote in a swing state is infinitely more valuable than a vote in a state that's 100% non-swing. These vote swap programs aren't going to be large enough to affect California unless Hillary has already lost. On the other hand, there's a non-zero chance that vote-swappers will affect Colorado or even (e.g.) Maine and eke out a win if things go badly. Even if it doesn't help Clinton's election, the fact that a voter supports a Democrat candidate in one race might flow on to down-ballot races.

So while there might be a moral hazard in this sort of gamification, there are potential practical benefits in this election, which is really what's critical.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]


She stopped at UNCG and NC A&T last Thursday (the first day of early voting) after a rally at Wake Forest. These rallies and unannounced stops aren't simply "get out the vote": they're "here's a map to the early voting location and volunteers to guide you."

And tomorrow is the last full day of early voting here in NC. The polls close at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday and don't open again until Election Tuesday.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:33 PM on November 3, 2016


And tomorrow is the last full day of early voting here in NC. The polls close at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday and don't open again until Election Tuesday.

Remember how John Roberts told us the South cured racism, so the Voting Rights Act was no longer needed?
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]


So, ultimately, I think you should vote for who you would actually like to be president.

The problem is that in our current voting system, by doing this, you may end up making it more likely that your most reviled choice becomes president. Hence strategic voting, when possible: either voting Clinton in order to vote against Trump (even if your first choice is actually another candidate), or trading with a voter from a "safe" Clinton state like VT or MA.

It's a good point though that people may participate in trading networks insincerely: I don't know that there's a legal way to validate a vote trade.
posted by en forme de poire at 5:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]


It's funny how easy it is to think that racism is dead when you are a wealthy white man in a privileged job for life.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]


>I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp....

My favorite sign-changing from the last election was when someone posted a huge, hand-made "Rand Paul Family Values" sign on the edge of the road, and some fine person climbed the embankment and, using strategically-place white tape, changed it to "Ru Paul Family Values". It stayed that way for months.
posted by acrasis at 5:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]


I'm going to Virginia this weekend to knock doors with the union thugs! Folks have been hard at work full time and at all hours, all over the country. I have a friend who's been doing this in friendly New Hampshire where they've told him to get out of their middle-of-nowhere gravel-roaded neighborhood and threatened to call the cops when he didn't. Union folk get the "best" assignments. The VA neighborhood I'm going to is a cakewalk.

Someone in prior thread was asking why Hillary would go to Detroit when Michigan is electorally safe. Part of the reason may be signalling pro-labor, because labor folks have not been not so enthused, from what I've heard. But they need to go out, and this is a critical week.
posted by zennie at 5:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]


Sorting Through the Clinton Email Case and What the F.B.I.’s Options Are
A week ago, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, jolted the presidential race by sending a letter to Congress saying the bureau had discovered new emails that might be relevant to Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server. The disclosure set off widespread criticism of Mr. Comey and unleashed a hurricane of news about Mrs. Clinton’s family foundation, Russia and F.B.I. infighting. Let’s sort it all out.
It's mostly an explainer if you haven't been following this closely, but there's one interesting detail as to what took them so long since they had Weiner's laptop a while ago:
That is when agents realized that Ms. Abedin’s emails were on the laptop, but they did not have the authority to view them without a warrant.

The F.B.I. needed custom software to allow them to read Mr. Weiner’s emails without viewing hers. But building that program took two weeks, causing the delay. The program ultimately showed that there were thousands of Ms. Abedin’s emails on the laptop.
Programing note: the NYT paywall is coming down Monday-Wednesday, including a live call-in show for their podcast.
posted by zachlipton at 5:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]


I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp....

I'd need to check with Don Henley, but I believe the actual lyrics are:

"Out on the road today, I saw a Trump/Pence sign on the side of a ramp
A little voice inside my head said 'that looks straight out of Mein Kampf.'"
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]


For example PredictIt had Kaine wins VP available for trading at $.68 with $1.00 payout (all others are not open to new traders). Seems like a pretty great return but then there is a 5% fee to depositing funds to your account and a 10% fee when the contract closes, plus taxes.

The 10% fee is on your profit and not on the total $1 per share, if that makes any difference.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]




These vote swap programs aren't going to be large enough to affect California unless Hillary has already lost.

Honestly, even if these programs were restricted only to trading votes in New York, California, and Illinois, it'd be more than enough to accommodate the fairly low numbers of third party voters in swing states. It is absolutely laughable to claim that trading a meager amount of votes would flip those states for Republican candidates.

It's a good point though that people may participate in trading networks insincerely: I don't know that there's a legal way to validate a vote trade.

Me neit