♪♫ Ev'ry day you fight, like you’re running out of time
November 2, 2016 2:59 PM Subscribe

Just six days left before the election. Rebounding from FBI Director Comey's resumption of the email investigation (previously), Hillary has been galvanizing her base, while Trump has adopted an unusual strategy of encouraging people to change their vote.

Trump currently has a narrow but workable path to victory if the polls continue to tighten. That may change after "Jane Doe," the woman accusing him of raping her as a 13 year-old, speaks out this evening.

It's not just about Trump and Hillary. The downballot is also important. MeFites are voting and volunteering. There's even a MeFites United calling team (details from kristi.)

Other Resources

Ballotpedia has a mass of election resources.
Plan your election day; again from Ballotpedia, state-by-state poll opening and closing times.
How to vote in every state by NoxAeternum.
More voter information by lampshade.
Election thread reference

posted by ChurchHatesTucker (3333 comments total) 101 users marked this as a favorite

Wow the air is clear up here..

Six more days. Not sure if I'm hopeful or terrified.
posted by Alterscape at 3:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

I wanted to get this up for reactions to the Jane Doe press conference. I also stripped it way down because talking about Comey seemed odd after mentioning that.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

This time I get to be the one to say, "Finally an election thread I've gotten to the end of!"
posted by explosion at 3:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Where are all the comments?
This thread is rigged!
posted by chavenet at 3:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

We're submitting them and then editing them, just like Trump intended.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 3:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

The press conference with Jane Doe was just called off due to death threats.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

I don't think the Jane Doe press conference is happening.

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/793936316262219776

Lisa Bloom just said her client was "living in fear" and did not want to show her face and ended the press conference.

posted by Mothlight at 3:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh my fucking god.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

We now resume our regularly scheduled freakout about emails.
posted by zachlipton at 3:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Bloom did say that it would be rescheduled, presumably after they beef up security.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:07 PM on November 2, 2016

HILLARY CLINTON AND THE POPULIST REVOLTThe Democrats lost the white working class. The Republicans exploited it. Can Clinton win it back?

By George Packer
posted by the man of twists and turns at 3:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

The press conference with Jane Doe was just called off due to death threats.

Can I submit my FPP again?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Obama at a UNC Chapel Hill rally earlier today: "All the progress we hope to make over the next eight years, all of that goes out of the window if we don't win this election. And we don't win this election, potentially, if we don't win North Carolina. So I hate to put a little pressure on you, but the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders. The fate of the world is teetering and you, North Carolina, are going to have to make sure that we push it in the right direction."

Only a little pressure...
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [46 favorites]

I think the best odds for getting back the non-deplorable part of the working class would be to put up a candidate more like Sanders. Obviously not an option this election, but there is always in 8 years, or 4 if they go particularly badly or Clinton doesn't want re-election for whatever reason.
posted by Mitrovarr at 3:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Is #westandwithjanedoe a thing yet?

Threats. And people wonder why women don't come forward. Jesus Christ.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [58 favorites]

Today's entry over at Indexed:
Stress-eating Halloween candy & refreshing all the tabs.
posted by mon-ma-tron at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I know the next 6 days are going to be objectively just as long as any other 6 days. They're not going to feel like that, though.

I hope it's just 6 days, and the process doesn't get dragged out. I'm going to need some serious drugs if it does. Candy isn't going to do it.
posted by still_wears_a_hat at 3:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

reminder for kitty and pupper owners: pet costumes are always on markdown the week after halloween so if you think it will help your sanity pls dress up your puppers as fat lil pumpkins

also post pictures
posted by poffin boffin at 3:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [175 favorites]

Wow, I'd never caught an election thread that was under like 700 comments.

Just wanted to say I'm Mexican and looking at this from an outsider perspective but I'll be sending USA good vibes all week and up to tuesday night.

Pleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresidentPleasedon'tmaketrumppresident
posted by CrazyLemonade at 3:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [89 favorites]

i promise i am not a paid shill for Big Pet Costume
posted by poffin boffin at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [75 favorites]

So the press conference didn't happen?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016

I come from white Southern working class people and our problems are not that interesting and mostly boil down to ignorance + racism encouraged by the richer people who want to manipulate us, can we stop wringing our hands over white people feelings.
posted by emjaybee at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [72 favorites]

Let's ask Conway about Trump singling out Katy Tur at his rally. She says Hillary is "in the gutter" but they are much more "joyful and positive and uplifting" in their campaign.
posted by zachlipton at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

The press conference with Jane Doe was just called off due to death threats.
The Gamergators taught them well.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

reminder for kitty and pupper owners: pet costumes are always on markdown the week after halloween so if you think it will help your sanity pls dress up your puppers as fat lil pumpkins

Well there's my coping strategy for the week.
posted by corb at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

I also stripped it way down because talking about Comey seemed odd after mentioning that.

Today on Twitter I saw a statement from "Tiffany", a former Epstein employee, about witnessing Donald Trump raping teenagers and girls even younger. I also saw a statement from the teenager involved in the Anthony Weiner case directed at Comey about how his timing thrust her into the spotlight and how unprofessionally and hurtfully it was handled. Comey, like a horrifying number of older men in this country who have some influence on the election, doesn't seem to consider young women worth protecting. That's a HUGE part of this election and it's a depressing thread that feels like it runs through everything and just grinds me down.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 3:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [171 favorites]

I think the best odds for getting back the non-deplorable part of the working class would be to put up a candidate more like Sanders.

Deduct ten points for saying "the working class" when you mean "the white working class."
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [123 favorites]

The Clinton camp going back up on the air in CO concerns me. I know we all think it's in the bag there but those polls showing a Clinton +9 lead or whatever are old at this point, and the only recent polls we have are C+3, C+1, C+3, C+2. And the fact that they're putting money back into Colorado means their internal polling backs up the public polling. Not necessarily exactly but in terms of there being some tightening.

I'm not super comfortable with the fate of the nation resting on C+3, C+1, C+3, C+2 and if anybody else is they have nerves of frikkin' steel.
posted by Justinian at 3:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

For me, Friday morning to Monday evening will be occupied with a road trip to NC for the funeral and memorial of a very beloved grandmother.

In theory, this means the weekend will be dedicated to memories and bonding and familial love. But then again, I know who some of them are voting for already. So I may be trapped on the top of a mountain for two days with some pretty abhorrent views. Wish me luck.
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

for other more unconventional pets you could prolly make a cute dress for a snake with an old tube sock and those puffy paint pens
posted by poffin boffin at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [46 favorites]

I don't know, there's a weird smell over these allegations. It's entirely possible that this woman has just picked her friends poorly, but it's also possible that, per Jezebel's reporting, she's part of a freelance ratfucking and wants out. To be clear, I completely believe that Trump is the kind of man who would do what she alleges. I just ... In any case, I have no doubt she is facing death threats.
posted by Countess Elena at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

This is the point in the election cycle when I want to tell myself to keep calm and trust in Nate Silver but his most recent charts are not providing the warm comforts that I am accustomed to (I should have know that those heady 85+% days were fleeting).
posted by sparklemotion at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Here's hoping Jane Doe has an opportunity to come back out in a couple of days, with a bulletproof vest or a tank or at the very least an army of decent people volunteering to bodyguard her. The idea that the deplorables could silence someone like her is just devastating.

What a horrible election.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

If anything good has come out of this election cycle, it's been the apparent failure (finally!) of the Parties to keep shoveling their warmed-over doublespeak without consequence. The D party very nearly had a legitimate candidate with legitimately progressive policies, and the R party was taken over by a total crank. Wow!
posted by anarch at 3:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I know it's wrong to want very bad things to happen to whoever threatened that young woman, but I do. Polls reportedly slipping, the fucking FBI coming down on the GOP side during an election - this I could handle, but I got nothing but hate in my heart for whoever did that shit.

Done now. Time to find a bottle of Malbec to empty.
posted by Mooski at 3:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

I know the next 6 days are going to be objectively just as long as any other 6 days. They're not going to feel like that, though.

I hope it's just 6 days, and the process doesn't get dragged out. I'm going to need some serious drugs if it does. Candy isn't going to do it.

If you're in most of the US this isn't true because of Daylight Savings Time.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 3:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]

Wish me luck.

Good luck, and I'm sorry for your loss. When I went to the ancestral homestead for my grandmother's funeral in May, I was actually pleasantly surprised at how many people weren't on Team Trump.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

I got an 8 month old puppy a month ago (I guess that means she's 9 months). She and my cat (3 yrs old) get along really well considering. I mean they are not playing together or anything, but no one has gotten hurt. What I am trying to say here is, we will all be ok. Cats and dogs are coexisting on my couch right now, dammit and I am taking that as a sign.

Also this is the first election post that I have gotten to post in. Usually there are about a thousand posts and I get exhausted and don't finish.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 3:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

I don't know, there's a weird smell over these allegations.

This is one big reason there hasn't been a lot of coverage. If you want your allegations to be taken seriously it's usually best not to be surrounded by political operatives and known ratfuckers. I don't know what happened and Trump is pure scum but the people around the accuser inspire 0 confidence.
posted by Justinian at 3:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Justinian, re CO polls, we have a brand new one at HRC +10.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [82 favorites]

OH MY GOD I LOVE YOU.
posted by Justinian at 3:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [110 favorites]

Deduct ten points for saying "the working class" when you mean "the white working class."

I meant all of it. I think the non-white parts of it are on our side this election because they're against Trump, but we need to offer them real improvements to get their loyalty long term. I don't think Clinton will do much for them except not actively make their situation worse.
posted by Mitrovarr at 3:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Ahem. I mean... thank you, that is important information.
posted by Justinian at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [41 favorites]

I'd like to thank wikileaks for exposing Clintons' bullshit with PAST DNC Brazilles leaking info concerning the debate in Flint. what assholes.
posted by clavdivs at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

> "Justinian, re CO polls, we have a brand new one at HRC +10."

And the recent Times-Picayune/Lucid CO poll was at Clinton +7.
posted by kyrademon at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I think Trump voters are pretty good at not believing accusations from women and that his floor is pretty well baked in at this point and that this press conference wouldn't have moved any numbers very much, so I can't say as I'm disappointed that we didn't get the press conference and the ensuing freakouts over the fact that the press conference didn't result in better polls
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

BREAKING
WikiLeaks email dump shows that Clinton was given locations of debates in advance
posted by Senor Cardgage at 3:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [98 favorites]

RIGGED
posted by entropicamericana at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Damn, that Colorado poll was taken more than a week ago, was online, and was not a random sample. From the poll: The online panel design is
not a random sample of the Colorado general public, and accordingly, we make no claims of scientific certainty with respect to its generalizability to the state.

Sadly, I must lump it in with the bullshit polls I was railing against instead of sleeping last night. Just because I want it to be true doesn't mean it is.

JCPL rising again.
posted by Justinian at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

Six more days. Not sure if I'm hopeful or terrified.

You can be both.
posted by octothorpe at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Hey everyone! An update on my previous "Oh my God my house was lived in by child-Roger-Ailes" news. The documentary filmmaker is coming on Election Day/evening to film the house and interview us, as well as film us watching election returns (the documentary is actually on Roger Ailes and his impact on media coverage).

I am excited about this, but I remarked to my husband, "I guess this means we have to wear pants and not provide commentary in the voices of the cats while we watch the returns, huh."
posted by chainsofreedom at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [113 favorites]

I think the Brazille thing is another nothing burger. HRC is nothing if not completely prepared. The general theme of the debate was set, she really would not have needed any help.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

one can only imagine how lost, befuddled, and flat-footed Clinton would have looked, stammering for an answer about lead poisoning in Flint, had Brazile not given her that nefarious lifeline!
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]

My awesome iPhone 6s -- which not only looks cool and works really well but speaks to my worth as a human being -- loaded this thread in like milliseconds.
posted by orange ball at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

I gave up on the election threads, but for the home stretch will try to keep up. It's terrifying at this point. Dear fellow USians, just fucking vote, mkay?
posted by theora55 at 3:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

JCPL rising again.

no offense but the JCPL concept is going in the Wicker Trump along with the word "optics" on Nov 9
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [69 favorites]

Everytime there is an article about the poor, poor unemployed white people, it's important to remember that unemployment for black Americans is twice that of whites. It certainly varies by location and educational level (educated people in cities have an advantage) but the people who are really suffering are not the ones that get the sympathy profiles in major media.

I really want to see a universal basic income for all. I would also like to see an "American Dream" for us all, no matter the race, gender, sexuality, etc. The for-whites-only American Dream in the 1950's was supported by the government, financing it through high taxes on the wealthy. If it could happen again, this time for all Americans, it would be wonderful. I don't think anyone should be poor. The trouble is there may not be enough actual jobs for everyone, but a universal basic income...one can dream, I guess.

Even without a UBI, a Clinton administration will be better for the poor, for women, POC, indeed anyone who is not a white male. And, if someone is seriously thinking of voting for a candidate who was endorsed by the KKK - the KKK! - I don't want to know them. I could forgive people for voting for Bush, or McCain, or Romney, as basically decent people who thought differently than I did - but voting for Trump puts you beyond the pale (har har).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [172 favorites]

I know, right? If not for Wikileaks, we would never have been able to point at Donna Brazile and proclaim her Captain Obvious.
posted by xyzzy at 3:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Great comment Rosie
posted by Potomac Avenue at 3:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

> "Damn, that Colorado poll was taken more than a week ago, was online, and was not a random sample."

Well ... if you restrict it to nonpartisan live phone polls, I don't think there's even BEEN one in Colorado since the Quinnipiac poll on October 16.
posted by kyrademon at 3:33 PM on November 2, 2016

Thus the concern, yes. It is hard to feel confident when polling this year has been so spotty and low quality compared to 2012.
posted by Justinian at 3:34 PM on November 2, 2016

I know, right? If not for Wikileaks, we would never have been able to point at Donna Brazile and proclaim her Captain Obvious.

Would that make her Captain Brazile?
posted by miguelcervantes at 3:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

As I mentioned in the last thread, I do think the Brazile thing generally stinks, and as the NYT commented yesterday, CNN, in particular, needs to act like a news organization and start talking about what happened here rather than running and hide.

But, I maintain that there were only two candidates this cycle who were so out of it that they needed a secret tip that someone might ask about the Flint water crisis at a debate HELD IN FLINT, and neither Donald Trump nor Ben Carson were participating in the Democratic debate. I am supremely confident that Hillary Clinton had a Flint water answer fully prepped and ready to go well before the evening before the debate, and I'm sure Sanders had one too.

I think the issue, and a number of other things that have happened this season (hi Corey!) raise some pretty important questions about surrogates and analysts, and CNN, as the folks most responsible for making the mess, ought to play a role in cleaning it up. But I think it's immaterial as far as the primary is concerned.
posted by zachlipton at 3:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I've only half followed (well quarter (Maybe 1/8?)) followed the election threads. Before this gets too long, what is JCPL?
posted by [insert clever name here] at 3:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I've only half followed (well quarter (Maybe 1/8?)) followed the election threads. Before this gets too long, what is JCPL?

Welcome! We've got a wiki to help you catch up on all the nonsense we've invented in these threads as (attempted) coping mechanisms while neglecting our personal and professional responsibilities.
posted by zachlipton at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]

Follow the election thread reference at the top of the page.
posted by LionIndex at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Seriously...everytime I see JCPL my brain goes, "Johnson County Public Library" because that's my county library.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

Been meaning to mention this for a while, but if you have access to BBC iPlayer, they've got up their 2002 documentary "The War Room" - a fly-on-the-wall behind the scenes look at Bill Clinton's 1992 primary and presidential election campaign.

It is well worth a watch, if only for just how different things are and from a position of knowing how things went for all the key players involved.
posted by garius at 3:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I despair that CNN knows how to act like a news organization. I get that calm news about far flung places like one finds on PBS News Hour might not sell soap, but how would we know? Maybe, like, try it out.
posted by xyzzy at 3:41 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

BTW, I voted earlier in October - California is pretty good about allowing you to vote by mail without jumping through a lot of hoops. Not only was I able to #StandWithHer, I was able to vote yes on legal marijuana, hooray! I live in an indigo-blue part of a blue state so it's not as if my vote made a huge difference, but I felt good to be able to do something. And there are the downticket races.

I have seen the occasional Clinton/Kaine sign (amusingly, one right next to a leftover Halloween "A Witch Lives Here With Her Little Monsters" sign) but no Trump/Pence, thank god. Lots and lots and LOTS of signs for local officials. I try to give some attention to those, as the less sexy, more local races are how senators and presidents get started, and I really want to vote in as many pinko libruls as I possibly can.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

The big Health Plan speech coverage linked in the previous FPP bothered me because all of the speakers-- the doctors, Ben Carson, Pence Trump-- don't rely on ObamaCare. They are either covered through work and/or wealthy enough to buy the best medical insurance available. When coming up with the new Trump-Pence plan I'm sure they did not confer with anyone who has insurance coverage through ObamaCare. Yes it has its problems but it also has its strengths and just getting rid of it is going to be a disaster for millions of people.

This is one of the many, many ways in which the Trump campaign has been such a shit show-- his policies are not geared to help anyone but himself. Unlike Hillary, he has made no effort to listen or to be open to what Americans need or want. Instead the agenda he is pushing is to please his crowds (build a wall) or cater to Republican politicians (defund Planned Parenthood) or benefit the Trump family (get rid of the Estate Tax.) Is there anyone on MetaFilter that thinks he has consulted anyone other than his immediate circle of cronies, family, and advisers? Like god forbid he should actually go to a Planned Parenthood office and talk to some of the women there to see how they would be affected if PP is defunded.

And, if someone is seriously thinking of voting for a candidate who was endorsed by the KKK - the KKK! - I don't want to know them.

I've been saying this for months. Look at who is running his campaign. Look at who is showing up at his rallies and the T-shirts they are wearing. Even if you don't understand who the alt-right are, you should be able to understand Trump that Bitch and Lock her up.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

my god, the election threads wiki produces so much nostalgia feels. remember when we used to call Martin O'Malley Littlefinger? We used to talk about Martin O'Malley! Good lord, it seems so long ago.

I wonder what little Linc Chaffee is up to. I hope he's moved out west and returned to being a farrier.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]

please someone stop me before I write election fanfic about Lincoln Chaffee trying to convince all the other farriers to switch to metric horseshoes...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [39 favorites]

posted by chainsofreedom at 17:27
I am excited about this, but I remarked to my husband, "I guess this means we have to wear pants and not provide commentary in the voices of the cats while we watch the returns, huh."

actually I would watch this documentary
posted by strange chain at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [77 favorites]

Only if Miranda July directed it.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Stuck with a conundrum for election night:

Friends are organizing a party. My girlfriend/partner almost certainly can't go, 'cause she'll be deep into project stuff for her current coding classes.

I feel a deep need to see through the salvation or destruction of the republic with friends. Conversely, I feel like I should be home with my girlfriend for a moment like that (also because the success or failure of electing a woman to the presidency means more than a little). She says I should go 'cause she'll be too invested in her work to even look up, but... gah.

I don't know if she's just hiding her election trauma or if I'm projecting mine onto her. :)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I think Trump voters are pretty good at not believing accusations from women

Shit, they didn't believe him when he confessed.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [104 favorites]

This may be the first election night that I go to bed early. I'll know who won by the sound or absence of gunfire in the distance.
posted by Splunge at 3:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I am excited about this, but I remarked to my husband, "I guess this means we have to wear pants and not provide commentary in the voices of the cats while we watch the returns, huh."

I imagine the documentary crew might insist on pants, but you should absolutely not let them talk you out of the kitty-commentary.
posted by jackbishop at 3:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

I feel like I just want to go into a cave and come out in two years. No matter what happens the next year is going to be really messed up.
posted by lumpenprole at 3:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Can we start calling Trump a gazillionaire? It sounds big and it's completely made-up, like the value of his name.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Watching the national news is not making me happy. ABC is doing the election map, checking to see how Trump could reach 270 electoral votes. CBS is showing a group of college-age voters bringing up various issues. Don't get me started about local news in Oklahoma.
Have I mentioned how much I appreciate the points of view on MetaFilter? Opinions are respectfully exchanged and solid evidence is cited.
Anti-Hillary ads are showing on the stations. Notice how they never say what Trump's policies are?
On with the election....
posted by TrishaU at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

For even more nostalgia feels, pop back to the first election 2016 megathread (a mere 754 comments) Hillary declares for 2016, back when 575 days before the election felt as endless as the next six days do now. Skimming the first bunch of comments, essentially nothing has changed in the last 569 days. Or the CNN Too Many Cooks video thread (tw: Too Many Cooks) for a simpler time when this election was just about mild dislike over a media company's viral video efforts.
posted by zachlipton at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Seriously...everytime I see JCPL my brain goes, "Johnson County Public Library" because that's my county library.

I didn't know the acronym either so I googled it and got ... the Johnson County Public Library.
posted by chavenet at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

Usually I hate teaching Writing About Literature, because I'm really not that great at it. I'm trying, but I get this weird tension because, say, I tear up watching David Tennant do a soliloquy from Hamlet and my students are often just *yawn* and it makes me sad and sort of grim and I just don't know how to connect. This isn't an ask for teaching advice; I'm working on it.

What I mean to say is that this semester I am really welcoming it. When I read the WWI poems, Langston Hughes, even the over-the-topness of Sylvia Plath, when I look at all the different layers in "Young Goodman Brown" and Invisible Man, when I realize that I've got some beautiful lines from Cynthia Ozick and Flannery O'Connor engraved in my head, when I anticipate watching Hamlet next week and man I'm already like that is so fucking beautiful--

And I feel okay. I mean now, at this moment. Humanity has been capable of great things, in literature and beyond. And my students may yawn (maybe 'cause I'm crappy), and people may somehow! bizarrely! most incredibly! believe that Trump is more honest than Clinton. And it's like, humanity has always been thus. Great and terrible. That's how it fucking is.

Also, I'm really stoned right now. That helps.
posted by angrycat at 3:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [83 favorites]

I am supremely confident that Hillary Clinton had a Flint water answer fully prepped and ready to go well before the evening before the debate, and I'm sure Sanders had one too.

But this doesn't resolve the problem. The entire affair is disappointing to me (speaking as someone who early voted for Hilary), because when something like that happens and someone gives you an unfair advantage it is up to your ethics and moral compass for you (or your staff) to stand up and say no, this isn't fair, we don't need to play dirty in this way because we have faith in our candidate.

The fact that they both anticipated a question that was leaked to one of the candidates doesn't solve the squishy moral compass here. Whether she directly worked with the DNC at that point and anticipated receiving the tip aside or wants to write it off as an unsolicited tip, even in that circumstance the only acceptable solution at the point was to 1) Notify the debate organizers that you received this tip and they should consider reevaluate their questions, and 2) Notify your competitors that you received this tip.

Again, I voted for Hilary and still would even in this circumstance because the alternative is far worse, but this does not in anyway help her image among Sanders-supporters who we need to get her to the finish line.
posted by Karaage at 3:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

also post pictures

It's no chubby pumpkin but I snapped a couple photos of my dog in a hoodie for you all.

He was being tempted with a new treat--a yak cheese crunchy puff--during the shoot, in case you're wondering what he's looking at. If you'd like an update on his current status, he is naked and begging for a second yak cheese crunchy puff while holding the first yak cheese crunchy puff in his mouth.
posted by phunniemee at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]

Biden/deal with it sunglasses
posted by mon-ma-tron at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Great post ChurchHatesTucker; the 156th on the blue tagged with Election2016. Heck.

Over here in Albion I'm working on the election day post (#dibs) which will be up when the mods deign it so.
posted by Wordshore at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

I live in a tiny town where we all know each other. There is one very vocal Trump supporter in town, white guy in his mid 20s, who I have been having a harder and harder time being civil to. I have started to avoid him because being openly against him or anyone is kind of verboten in our town culture, even though he spent the summer driving around with two giant US flags and MAGA written.
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 4:01 PM on November 2, 2016

I early voted today. It was nice and easy and it feels good to have my part in this dumpster fire done and over with. Nice to fingers crossed help get medical marijuana in FL along with the main event of trying to ward off fascism.

Is anyone aware of ways I can expatriate myself for a while if Trump does get elected? I will have an English Literature degree in the spring for what that is worth and I am willing to do basically anything short of like joining the French Foreign Legion. I will of course make the requisite profile on Maple Match. I know "I'm moving to Canada if ______ is elected" is a cliché that few follow through on but I am serious.
posted by Gymnopedist at 4:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I'm so tired.
posted by vrakatar at 4:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]

I'm sure I'm not alone here in checking FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics multiple times a day to see the latest polling averages. This post on Mother Jones, especially the second part about Reversion to the Mean, was very comforting to me today.
posted by ejs at 4:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

In a just world we could early vote, then program our cryosleep tubes to wake us after the election. (Or if Trump wins... in time for the first 2020 election thread.)
posted by invincible summer at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Again, I voted for Hilary and still would even in this circumstance because the alternative is far worse, but this does not in anyway help her image among Sanders-supporters who we need to get her to the finish line.

no offense but the JCPL concept is going in the Wicker Trump along with the word "optics" on Nov 9

Ooh, ooh! Can I add to the list of concepts to be tossed into the post-election Wicker Trump?

1. Nothingburger
2. All out of evens
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]

For anyone in the mood to watch a train wreck, the Louisiana Senate race debate is on tonight in about an hour (7 PM Central) and it's being broadcast nationally by CSPAN. Featuring everyone's actual KKK member David "is he still around?" Duke.
posted by Bringer Tom at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2016

Gymnopedist, whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if ______ is elected," I say "No! We need you here to fight the good fight!"

So, uh, imagine me saying that to you.
posted by ejs at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

So in which states am I able to change this comment?
posted by sammyo at 4:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Teen Who Allegedly Got Weiner Sexts “Upset” With Comey: The teenager exclusively told BuzzFeed News she is upset with the FBI for not informing her that her case became tied to the use of Hillary Clinton’s private email server.

Just had to get that "exclusively" in there, did you?
posted by homunculus at 4:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

MetaFilter: naked and begging for a second yak
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [21 favorites]

Why isn't MSNBC covering the fact that the press conference was called off due to death threats? WHY?????? That's a breaking fucking news story, too. Fuck. Fuck fuck fuck.
posted by Room 641-A at 4:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

we make no claims of scientific certainty with respect to its generalizability to the state.

What in the seven hells is the value of a poll that isn't representative? I mean... other than being especially representative of the sort of news reporting we've had since the start of this crapfest.

Why bother going through the trouble of making a poll that has absolutely no validity? Are we reporting internet polls, too? Tea leaves? Entrails of pumpkins? "Here's a completely arbitrary sampling of people that has no validity and shouldn't be relied upon by anybody to provide any insight into anything, but we're doing it anyway because we have space to fill and time to kill."

Is it December yet?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

>the default assumption that Bernie received no hot tips from media-affiliated Berners is unsupportable

"Rules are for others" and "everyone is doing it" excuses. This is why people find Clinton distasteful.
posted by anti social order at 4:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

If this was linked upthread forgive me, but polling in Florida of early voters showed that 28 percent of Republicans there voted for Hillary. IF that holds up, she should win the state 48-40, the book on it being Donnie needs 90 percent of registered Republicans generally, state by state, to have a puncher's chance. I'm gonna go mix some other sports metaphors and some Jame-o over ice.
posted by vrakatar at 4:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Touching back on the topic of disability and voting access, here's an article about some of the efforts in Iowa: Election Day equality: Access is crucial for those with disabilities.
posted by Lexica at 4:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Hillary Clinton's campaign has Twitter accounts for your state: Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming.

Puerto Rico too. Almost every single one has been updated today and has links to local events, voting information, etc. Lets go people!
posted by cashman at 4:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Is it December yet?

I hate to break it to you but I just let some wax drip into a bowl of water and I'm afraid the shapes the wax took are not favorable to Clinton at all. This is not good, people.
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

My dog in her hoodie. Alien or hard boiled egg-- you decide.

BuzzFeed Election Forum At Orthodox Synagogue Exposes Rift Among New York City Jews

More than 100 people came to Talmud Torah of Flatbush for “Election 2016: The Jewish Perspective,” a panel moderated by local radio host Leon Goldenberg. The event included New Jersey Rabbi Menachem Genack, who spoke in defense of Clinton, and Brooklyn assemblyman Dov Hikind, who said he plans to write-in Paul Ryan for president on Nov 8.

But while there were no Trump supporters on stage, the audience had its share, including Heshy Friedman, a member of “Jewish Democrats for Trump,” a group that is running ads in Jewish newspapers in swing states including Florida and Ohio.[...]

Ayton Eller, another Flatbush resident who identified as a Democrat, wore a Trump logo on his skullcap.

“I’m an American Jew first, and I’m voting for Trump because he’s a strong supporter of Israel,” Eller said. “When Clinton was New York’s senator, she pandered to Jews. As soon as she became secretary of state, she flipped her policies and opposed Jewish settlements. She supported the Iran nuclear deal, which is a catastrophe for Israel that legitimizes Iran.”

One “Jewish Democrats for Trump” flier Friedman’s group passed out read “4 Reasons Why Every Jew Must Vote TRUMP” and included a message at the bottom, “What is happening throughout Europe must NOT be allowed to happen to us.” Another made reference to the Holocaust: “Hillary’s facilitation of Iran’s nukes could mean six million in 9 minutes. Never again dare we remain silent.”

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Be disappointed in John Podesta for not telling on Brazile all you want, but the default assumption that Bernie received no hot tips from media-affiliated Berners is unsupportable. No one hacked his campaign and posted 10 years of email archives, so we have no way of knowing.

This is an absurd red herring. Sure, count me equally disappointed in Bernie if he got a hot tip too and he failed to do the same thing, but this doesn't change what occurred in the Clinton campaign.

Unless you're trying to go with the "hey it's just politics and everyone plays dirty, including maybe Bernie" excuse - which is what I'd expect out of Trump.

If we're going to lay it at just Podesta's feet, then I'd also expect Clinton to take him to task for it too, if not demanding a resignation. But that's not going to happen.
posted by Karaage at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Justinian I say this with all the love in my heart, you need to smoke a big honking bowl of weed and chill the fuck out man
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [64 favorites]

If you want your allegations to be taken seriously it's usually best not to be surrounded by political operatives and known ratfuckers.

A judge examined the evidence and decided there was enough for a hearing. This is not a small-town story; how, as a random person, do you step into a presidential election without being surrounded by political operatives?
posted by Room 641-A at 4:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

>The fact that they both anticipated a question that was leaked to one of the candidates doesn't solve the squishy moral compass here. Whether she directly worked with the DNC at that point and anticipated receiving the tip aside or wants to write it off as an unsolicited tip, even in that circumstance the only acceptable solution at the point was to 1) Notify the debate organizers that you received this tip and they should consider reevaluate their questions, and 2) Notify your competitors that you received this tip.

Successful politicians press every advantage they can get as hard as they can, or they very quickly stop being successful politicians.

Election campaigns aren't about devising fair methods of ascertaining the will of the electorate. instead, they're about demonstrating which of the competitors can construct/control the most effective organization for winning votes.

Elections aren't, like, metafilter threads, where we relatively dispassionately try to use discussion as a means of getting at truth or whatever. Instead, they're war; it's not a mistake that that word "campaign" can be used to refer to both political campaigns and military campaigns.

Instead of being scandalized by the Clinton team using the institutional machinery of the DNC to their benefit, focus on how you can help your candidates build and/or seize control of institutional machinery themselves.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

This is an absurd red herring.

I apologize. I didn't mean to imply that you would celebrate such a thing. I meant that Bernie voters would have no reason to know such a thing if illegal activity hadn't occurred.
posted by xyzzy at 4:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Again, I voted for Hilary and still would even in this circumstance because the alternative is far worse, but this does not in anyway help her image among Sanders-supporters who we need to get her to the finish line.

To quote the guy I voted for in the primaries: I'm tired of hearing about [her] damn emails.

Approximately 100% of the Sanders voters who were actually ever going to vote for Clinton feel the same way and are voting for her. The others, we can argue about what percent fall into which basket, but some of them are misogynists (never voting Clinton because she's a woman), some of them are anti-establishment leftists (never voting Clinton because she's too establishment) and some of them are that weird group of Sanders --> Trump crossover voters, which I'm still not convinced are real people, I suspect the majority of those guys are 4chan trollers.

Anyway, we don't need the tiny numbers of voters in those groups, and we won't get them anyway. Happily, the coalition of left-of center whites, black and brown people and women that Clinton has very skillfully built will carry her to victory.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

Justinian, you picked a such bad week to stop sniffing glue.
posted by bonehead at 4:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [32 favorites]

Yeah I'm entirely indifferent to Clinton getting questions pre-debate or pre-town hall. That's called being effective, having connections, and exploiting your advantages. The Presidential campaign isn't a college midterm.
posted by dis_integration at 4:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?

There's probably a cultural thread starting with the underground railroad, through the Vietnam war, and the 2000 election that makes it culturally relevant. And in at least two of those cases, it was a super real thing that people did out of fear for their safety.

But at least in my household it's not academic; my Canadian (not-yet-naturalized) wife is understandably on high alert about this election and if Trump won I'm pretty sure the odds we remain in the states in 5 years is sub 30%. And for all the Canadians in the states on TN visas, this is a pretty specific issue too.

That's not to say that this is most people's situations, and certainly both myself and folks on work visas have the privilege to make somewhat unconstrained choices about where we live and work, but it's not entirely blowing smoke either.
posted by heresiarch at 4:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Metafiler: Also, I'm really stoned right now. That helps.
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

She may have gotten a question or two but that just means those type questions moved to the top of the practice pile. THEY DO HOMEWORK.
posted by vrakatar at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

HuffPo Donald Trump Will Not Get His Son-In-Law’s Newspaper’s Endorsement

Editor-in-chief Ken Kurson told The Huffington Post Wednesday that the “Observer is not going to make an endorsement in the general.”

The Observer was one of four publications to endorse Trump during the Republican primary, along with the Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post, the Santa Barbara News-Press and The National Enquirer. [...]

In April, New York magazine reported that Kurson ― who worked as a former speechwriter for Rudy Giuliani in addition to journalism roles ― provided input for a speech Trump gave at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference, a role that raised conflict of interest concerns.

Kurson was unapologetic, telling HuffPost that he and Kushner have long discussed politics and he simply looked at a draft in the course of their discussions. A family friend, Kurson landed the Observer’s top job after Kushner cycled through five editors in seven years.

While Kurson didn’t regret his involvement, a former senior politics editor put out a statement shortly afterward that no editorial staffers should assist campaigns. The paper’s national political reporter quit just over a week later in response to the primary endorsement and other Trump coverage concerns.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Elections aren't metafilter threads where we relatively dispassionately try to use discussion as a means of getting at truth or whatever. Instead, they're war; it's not a mistake that that word "campaign" can be used to refer to both political campaigns and military campaigns.

In this war of a campaign, it's a really bad idea to accept (hopefully) unsolicited tips from an insider as to the contents of an upcoming debate question. The potential benefits are minor (and in this case, practically zero), but the costs of this being made public are significant. I am more disappointed in Brazille than Podesta or the HRC campaign. It's not really a big deal, but it's not absolutely nothing. It makes me question how well guarded the questions for the general election debates are, and I'm sure I'm not alone on that, and that kind of doubt is really not good for a candidate.
posted by skewed at 4:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Re the "smell" of the allegations:

If you want your allegations to be taken seriously it's usually best not to be surrounded by political operatives and known ratfuckers.

Works well enough for donald, tho.

In all seriousness one of my very very bright friends (who happens to be female) made a similar argument about the timing of the claims. But it's just so easy to counter - given what the man himself has said about his behavior and inability or unwillingness to control it and the dozen other women suggesting he was telling the truth about himself, how could we not be more than a little interested in the substance of these claims.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 4:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Instead of being scandalized by the Clinton team using the institutional machinery of the DNC to their benefit, focus on how you can help your candidates build and/or seize control of institutional machinery themselves.

Could you clarify what you mean by this? Because I'm reading it as "instead of being disappointed that your preferred candidate did something you find distasteful by using her establishment powers to her benefit and think is negatively affecting her image, just focus on how you can help your preferred candidate.....continue to use those establishment powers to her benefit?"

She's my preferred candidate. That doesn't mean I can't be disappointed in what she's doing, and being told "hey don't worry about that, she'll be better when she's president" isn't at all comforting.
posted by Karaage at 4:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

“4 Reasons Why Every Jew Must Vote TRUMP”

Man, I hope someone asked them how they interpret the "Jew-S-A!" cry that went 'round Trump's rally...
posted by TwoStride at 4:31 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

... and then I caught this on the local news. Good grief.
Oklahoma republican's Facebook post sparks controversy

“Just because I’m in the state legislature doesn’t take away my first amendment rights. I can say however I feel on Facebook, and it wasn’t a threat. It was my thoughts tying her to the treasonous act I think she committed,” said John Bennett, representative for for the 2nd district and running for reelection next Tuesday.
His Wikipedia page gives more information about his past and other conservative views.
Nope, not happy about Oklahoma politicians and news coverage.
posted by TrishaU at 4:32 PM on November 2, 2016

WaPo Gary Johnson still sees 2016 as a game changer. Others call it a missed opportunity for Libertarians

MURRAY, UTAH — Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president, could not believe what was happening. For months, he’d argued that the American public’s disgust with the two major parties would cut his path to the White House. He’d just watched those candidates disqualify themselves from high office. And he was polling worse than ever — especially in Utah, where those candidates were toxic.

“James Comey would not have done what he did unless there was something underlying all of this,” Johnson told a crowd of around 100 people at a college auditorium near Salt Lake City. “And if Trump is elected, he could actually go into inauguration day on trial for rape! Underage rape! He could be on trial for underage rape, taking the oath of office!”

Both claims were full of holes, from Comey’s own letter to Congress on the case of Hillary Clinton’s emails to the flimsiness of the Donald Trump case. At the same time, two time zones away, Johnson’s running mate, Bill Weld, was telling MSNBC that he was “vouching for Mrs. Clinton” and far more worried about Trump winning the election. This was not a bad day in the Libertarian ticket’s final run. It was typical.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Man, I hope someone asked them how they interpret the "Jew-S-A!" cry that went 'round Trump's rally...

Or the cries of lügenpresse at the Trump rally, or his unwillingness to push away the KKK, or.....
posted by lumpenprole at 4:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

I'm signed up to canvass for her on election day, but the disregard for my concerns and excuses I'm hearing here is making me reconsider.

that'll teach Hillary not to use her establishment powers to make people on message boards not give a shit about what Donna Brazile emails to John Podesta!

give me a break
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [49 favorites]

She may have gotten a question or two but that just means those type questions moved to the top of the practice pile. THEY DO HOMEWORK.

Yeah, I have to say that if you're blindsided by ANY question that comes up at a debate and unprepared to answer it, you probably shouldn't be president. I mean, any one of us should be able to guess pretty much all potential questions that could come up.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

Oklahoma republican's Facebook post sparks controversy

"Sparks controversy?" Way to take a stand, local news. Just to fill in a little more about this guy on today's episode of Better Know a Deplorable:

Bennett, who is seeking re-election, presided over a state House interim study on radical Islam last week where speakers branded both the director of the local Council on American-Islamic Relations chapter and a local imam as terrorists.

posted by zachlipton at 4:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

No way, you want your JCPL to be right around 45%-to-lightly-crunchy this far out from the election. It's a whites-of-the-eyes kind of thing.

Famously, Naploeon's JCPL was close to Burbling throughout most of his career until Waterloo when it faded down to Lolling. And look what happened there.
posted by petebest at 4:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

[breaks off bit of Kit-Kat bar for prize bull octorok]
posted by vrakatar at 4:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Let's remember something all of the wikileaks including the Donna Brazile emails -- we don't know how accurate they are. Even if the Clinton campaign or whoever sent them wanted to check them all to make sure they weren't modified, there are literally not enough hours in the day to go through thousands of emails to look for modifications.

It bothers me a great deal that the press accepts these uncritically while slapping "alleged" to the public and vetted statements of 12 women that Trump sexually abused them. Even after Trump confessed in general terms to doing so.
posted by msalt at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]

I polled everyone in my living room and they would like some apple sauce before teeth-brush-an-stories.
posted by BS Artisan at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [29 favorites]

Could you clarify what you mean by this? Because I'm reading it as "instead of being disappointed that your preferred candidate did something you find distasteful by using her establishment powers to her benefit and think is negatively affecting her image, just focus on how you can help your preferred candidate.....continue to use those establishment powers to her benefit?"
posted by Karaage at 4:30 PM on November 2 [+] [!]

Sorry, I thought you were coming from a "left critique of Clinton" point of view.

For my part I'm not disappointed or whatever in Clinton for using every institutional advantage to disadvantage her opponents, because politics is the skilled working of institutional advantage in order to disadvantage your opponents. like if you find that sort of thing distasteful, you find politics distasteful.

Really I think the main takeaway from this, going forward, is that good lord campaigns need to start encrypting their communications.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:41 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:41 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

>Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?

I understand Canada is gonna build a big-ass wall between us and them. There's some disagreement about whether we're paying for it or not, but once that's ironed out it's going up... so anybody who wants to move better do it quick.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I know the next 6 days are going to be objectively just as long as any other 6 days. They're not going to feel like that, though.

To paraphrase Jane Austen, "Tuesday did come, and exactly when it might be reasonably looked for."
posted by uosuaq at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]

kravatar, that's a really good point -- there's early voter party affiliation data coming out of a few states, but it's probably safe to assume there are significantly more Republicans for Hillary than Democrats for Trump, so it's likely that those numbers are a little to the right of the actual vote totals.
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oklahoma republican's Facebook post sparks controversy

“I am not advocating to shoot, hurt or kill Hillary Clinton or anyone else. That is not what I meant by that. I was using the firing squad words to refer to what the punishment is for treason. Hillary Clinton has committed nothing less than treason by knowingly leaving our American troops over there to die,” he said.

These weasels always try to weasel out of what they have said/written. "I'm not advocating to kill Hillary, I just want to punish her for treason-- whatever punishment that might be." Hokay. Come right out and say it, then: "I think Hillary Clinton should be executed for committing treason. Because BenGHAAAAAAAAZI" No need to have a trial, no need to pay any attention to all of the many congressional hearings that have found she did nothing wrong. Just take her out and shoot her. Jesus.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

There's a report that Cruz will campaign with Pence tomorrow, so if you're a keen observer of invertebrates, that will be something to look for.

In other (CBS) news, there's a new feature What women who worked for Donald Trump have to say about him, it's a mixed bag, ending with:

Another woman who worked for Trump as an assistant in the late 1990’s said overall her experience was positive. But while she said his comments during the campaign about Mexicans and Muslims has surprised her, the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video with its lewd conversation between Trump and Billy Bush did not.

She also said Trump would regularly call in female employees to his office and ask them for their opinion about the three women he was dating at the time, one of whom was Melania, asking, “Which one do you think is the most attractive?”

Kind of gives the whole Meredith! thing a bit of a creepy vibe.
posted by zachlipton at 4:45 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same as before FBI announcement: Reuters/Ipsos

...in a daily tracking poll. I mean, yes, better than it having collapsed after the Comey announcement so thumbs up I guess but we're still waiting for some good large sample live caller landline-and-cellphone polling from big national firms.
posted by Justinian at 4:45 PM on November 2, 2016

yoyoyo hoisted with yer own ardvarc kravatar is my alt universe bad guy, slow down
posted by vrakatar at 4:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I miss the salad days of whitehouse.org.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 4:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

I feel a deep need to see through the salvation or destruction of the republic with friends. Conversely, I feel like I should be home with my girlfriend for a moment like that (also because the success or failure of electing a woman to the presidency means more than a little).

Exact same dilemma. My sweetie is two hours away, will probably be half-working but it seems like an important night to hug and drink together no matter what happens. Maybe I answered my own question, even if the big parties will be here in Portland.
posted by msalt at 4:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

If anyone is alone in NYC on Tuesday, start a thread in IRL, we'll find a bar or something.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oof, sorry vrakatar! I got overexcited by the sight of such a near-anagram of "aardvark".
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

@JDiamond1 Trump just now remarking he's trying to stay on message: "Stay on point Donald, right? Stay on point. No sidetracks, Donald. Nice and easy."

Hilarious. He is now just spitting out the instructions he got from his handlers just before getting on stage. Presidential, my ass.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [47 favorites]

the fact that they're putting money back into Colorado means their internal polling backs up the public polling.

Possibly. Possibly not. Time is now more limited than money. Ad slots are reserved, and if they're not used, some other org will fill them. Nobody on a campaign ever regretted overspending to win a state.

Oh, and this Awl piece means you never have to read another travelogue profile of Trump voters again.
posted by holgate at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Yes yes all good polls are secretly bad and all bad polls are gospel we know
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

The #ImWithTur hashatg is the greatest. Lots of lovely, supportive people out there on the Twitters.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

I signed up for two in-person shifts at the local campaign joint on Tuesday (8-11 am; 2-5 pm), so that will keep me busy until the evening, and then I'll probably swing by here and try to keep myself hydrated enough to support several hours of turning, spitting, cursing, worrying, praying-while-atheist, and general anxiety-wallowing.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

hey wanna see something super sad? apparently the minecraft guy is hella trumpy

here's his twitter.

At first I thought he was joking, so I kept scrolling back. the last one I read before I had to stop was this one:

"People are just afraid to speak out against Hillary Clinton's corruption and the downfall of US democracy because Ghostbusters 2016"
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

Our long national nightmare is drawing to an end. I place my faith in the candidate who is smart, resilient, hardworking and pragmatic.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Disapointed to find that @JDiamond1 is not, in fact, Joe Biden's account.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

The Trump International Hotel & Tower in Toronto is likely to hit the market as the owner of debt on the property seeks a sale.

"JCF Capital ULC, a closely held firm, recently bought the construction loan on the 65-story hotel and condominium building, and claims developer Talon International Inc. and related companies defaulted on making payments since last year. JCF Capital is seeking a court-supervised sales process for the property to recoup the outstanding $301 million on the debt, according to court filings made Tuesday [25 October 2016] under Canada’s bankruptcy and insolvency act."
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

@PpollingNumbers
@QuinnipiacPoll, Among Early Voters:

North Carolina:
Clinton 58 (+22)
Trump 36

#Ohio:
Clinton 58 (+26)
Trump 32

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail
posted by chris24 at 4:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Justinian I say this with all the love in my heart, you need to smoke a big honking bowl of weed and chill the fuck out man
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:20 PM on November 2

Nice
posted by ejs at 4:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [114 favorites]

Hah, didn't even notice the time. Niiiiice.

I'm doing my part by voting for POT in California. Yes we can!
posted by Justinian at 4:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

@alivitali Trump again conflating the 650,000 emails found on Weiner's laptop and the smaller # of emails re Clinton being reviewed.

This is his new trick. As if every single email off of Weiner's laptop is a previously deleted email from Clinton's server and each one will reveal her treasonous handling of highly confidential state secrets. More likely it's a combination of 10 Groupon emails a day/Can you pick up some milk/Don't forget your dental appt/Get the hot new pill that turn your dick into a firehose.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Michael Cohen (the journalist, not the lawyer), thinks that Clinton is hitting a bunch of states to help with down-ticket races, not to prop up her own numbers. Threaded tweets, start here. Partial quote:

... her focus is certainly on swing states, but also on places where Dems are in close down ballot races ... today she's in Arizona, which has 2 close House races. ... but then look where she's not going: TX and GA, which are both close but only have one competitive House race between them

posted by maudlin at 5:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls? I don't get it -- why the mismatch?
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 5:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

This evening my wife got a vote shaming mailer from the CO Democratic Party. She dislikes these type of mailers intensely. I know there are reports that these things are effective (though I wonder how well those reports hold up to critical scrutiny), but the "voter report card" isn't even accurate. We've voted in every election (including this one) since we've moved to the state three years ago yet she gets a score of "average," which is below "good" and "excellent."

The mailer advises, "We plan to update this voter report card after the upcoming election and will be interested to see whether or not you voted."
posted by audi alteram partem at 5:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls? I don't get it -- why the mismatch?

Sheer panic causing her voters to vote as quickly as possible?
posted by peacheater at 5:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Democrats always overperform before election day and Republicans overperform on election day. The goal for Democrats is to run up the score enough pre-nov8 to overcome that.
posted by Justinian at 5:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

A theory I've read: polls may be measuring willingness to be polled -- "enthusiasm", if we must use that term -- as well as voting intentions. When Trump is doing badly in the media, he gets temporary slaps on the wrist from Republican officials and his supporters are more likely to avoid polling, thus dropping his numbers below their natural ceiling.
posted by maudlin at 5:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I can only speak to NC but it's generally known what portion of the electorate in a given state tends to vote early. In NC the Dems tend to pick up more early votes every year, and basically need to build up a firewall against same-day voting which favors Rs. (This is just in NC, idk about Ohio)
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls? I don't get it -- why the mismatch?

Presumably in part her campaign's superior ground game and the tendency of Democrat's to do better in early voting. It will tighten some on election day but hopefully not too much. I'd love to see double digit smack downs in most blue states.
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

For the past couple of election cycles, Democrats have heavily emphasized early voting. Basically, Democratic constituencies tend to be people who have a tough time making it to the polls. They're more likely to be single mothers with childcare issues, more likely to be low-income workers who can't get off work, more likely to have unreliable transportation, more likely to live in precincts that are being intentionally targeted by evil Republican vote suppression efforts, etc., etc., etc. In states with early voting, Democrats bank on winning big with early voting to offset having lower turnout on election day. And probably, a lot of Democratic early voters would have ended up voting anyway, but they're listening to pleas from canvassers and callers to vote early. So it's a good sign that Democrats are dominating early voting, but it's also true that it would be a very bad sign if they weren't.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Did I miss something about the election and Notch, xyzzy?

Well, according to YCTAB's comment and a stroll through his twitter, he apparently is claiming that twitter censors pro-Trump hashtags and that Hillary is evil. So, yeah, the inspiring words of a white billionaire. I still plan to play Minecraft, but I have known about his shitty personality for over two years.
posted by xyzzy at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Ohhhh, I missed YCTABs comment at first despite being glued to the thread. Guess that's what happens with 500 comments per hour. Thanks.
posted by Justinian at 5:09 PM on November 2, 2016

I took a trip to some of the stranger parts of the internet today and talk about going down the rabbithole - hoo boy there is some very disturbing lines of thought out there.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 5:10 PM on November 2, 2016

Yes - maudlin, I talked to a pollster who said that the post Comey Trump bump he was seeing was largely due to the same number of Trump voters answering the phone or agreeing to be polled, but a smaller number of Clinton voters than the previous few days.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

The Brazile email thing is stupid. That all of these emails are out there is like one side gets to play by one set of rules (they can strategize in secret) but Clinton's people's every move and past judgement can be second guessed out of context well after the fact. We don't know what anyone talked about on the phone or in person. We don't even know if emails weren't held back precisely because they gave a more complicated picture. We don't even really know who knew what when (I sincerely doubt Podesta reads every email he gets.) Even assuming Brazile is lying now that could just mean "deny everything" is a more media feasible response than nuanced truth or apologies in the week before the election.
posted by R343L at 5:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

William Gibson (@GreatDismal):

James Carville: Near-future nightmare extrapolative genius. VOTE!!!
posted by salix at 5:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

My fuckstick local news was going on about how to change your early vote. Didn't realize it was a Trump talking point. Figures.

Seriously though, how bad do you have to be losing to try to get folks to undo already cast votes?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm assuming that a lot of the Clinton activity in PA these days (she's coming back on Friday afternoon, at Heinz Field) is in support of our super close Senate race.

I still have a rage hangover from seeing those smug Trump bros on campus today. That was the wrong moment for me to then come back on here and read yet another story about how downtrodden and ignored Trump voters are, because those dudes are like the least ignored demographic on the planet.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

MY GOD I LOVE YOU.

As goes the JCPL, so the nation.
posted by corb at 5:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

I took a trip to some of the stranger parts of the internet today and talk about going down the rabbithole - hoo boy there is some very disturbing lines of thought out there.

Earlier today, I was looking on Twitter to see what people were saying about Obama speaking at Chapel Hill this afternoon. His speech hadn't started yet, but a bunch of people were tweeting about all the terrible lies Obama was telling Chapel Hill students right then, as if his speech was already happening. Like, what were those people listening to? It was kind of surreal.
posted by bananana at 5:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Guys, if Trump had received multiple debate questions in advance with as much detail as this:

"One of the questions directed to HRC tomorrow is from a woman with a rash. Her family has lead poison and she will ask what, if anything, will Hillary do as president to help the [people] of Flint.”

We'd all be up in arms and asking for the leaker/cheaters to be shamed and punished, at the very least.

So can we not be hypocrites when the cheating happens to benefit Clinton? It's embarrassing.

It's completely possible and okay that she can be a flawed, dishonest politician and still be the better choice here. It's okay to vote for her and be disappointed in her. It's a completely logical and acceptable position. She does not need to be a shining beacon of integrity to come out ahead of Trump. We don't need to apologize or gloss over her misdeeds when the misdeeds of the other candidate are, truly, so much worse.
posted by rokusan at 5:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [50 favorites]

Besides, it wouldn't matter if Trump were coached. He would give the Trump evasion, and pretend to be an expert in lead poisoning. It is a null point.
posted by Oyéah at 5:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Lisa Bloom, representing the woman accusing Trump of rape, now says:

Our firm's website was reportedly hacked today, as well as emails. Anonymous claims responsibility.

She RTs a tweet that purports to be such a claim of responsibility, for whatever it's worth.
posted by zachlipton at 5:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

So Clinton's doing 20-30 points better in early voting than in the polls?

From the moment Trump secured the nomination, no result other than a landslide for Clinton has really been possible. They hoped for (and even worked toward getting) the weakest possible opponent, and oh boy did they get their wist, the rest has been foregone conclusion.

I don't really get the anxiety or worry about this, and never have. It's only the desperate media desire to cover a horserace (and both campaigns' desire to create the illusion of one, for obvious reasons) that's produced any of this "closeness".
posted by rokusan at 5:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

I will be election watching with my fellow rebel delegates from the RNC. We will be packing into a bar to be complicatedly happyish sort of at how the election goes together.
posted by corb at 5:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [53 favorites]

Like, what were those people listening to?

The memo from Moscow? (More likely they were just throwing all manner of shit at the wall to see what might show up in hashtag and keyword searches.)
posted by holgate at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

It's completely possible and okay that she can be a flawed, dishonest politician and still be the better choice here. It's okay to vote for her and be disappointed in her.

It's also completely possible that some of us do. not. give. a. fuck. and/or don't think she or her people did anything wrong.

My god, I wish I could personally kick James Comey in the shin for making this conversation raise its trivial stupid head yet AGAIN.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [61 favorites]

In all seriousness one of my very very bright friends (who happens to be female) made a similar argument about the timing of the claims.

She first filed in April.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

What a horrible election.

A Facebook friend (Clinton supporter, but still) has been regularly reacting with amusement to all the election hijinks and crowing "this is the best election ever!"

Today is when I finally went off on him about 'no, it's really, really not."
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

JSB - Justinian-strength benzodiazepine.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Rokusan, I would agree, if Hillary had gotten those questions, but she didn't. Podesta did,and he says he didn't tell Hillary. You can choose to believe or not, but he's always been aware of, and in compliance with the rules, as far as I can tell.

That said, trump has had multiple paid staffers also being paid as CNN analysts, so if information was being dropped by CNN to the dems, I guarantee it dropped for the reps.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

As goes the JCPL, so the nation.

When they go low, we get high…?
posted by nicepersonality at 5:31 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

The memo from Moscow? (More likely they were just throwing all manner of shit at the wall to see what might show up in hashtag and keyword searches.)

Yeah, a lot of them had usernames involving the word "deplorable" and stuff about hating Hillary in their profiles.

Pretty sure those people were listening to Rush Limbaugh.
posted by bananana at 5:32 PM on November 2, 2016

It's not hypocritical to say we don't know everything. It's not hypocritical to acknowledge that 100% perfect openness about every mistake made is an infeasible decision for a campaign to make. This close to the election you don't apologize for anything. It's not hypocritical for me to concede that reality and not demand purity and perfection that are not only impossible (humans make mistakes!) but make it impossible to win elections.
posted by R343L at 5:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I hope all the candidates did get slipped questions in advance. I mean, hell, PLEASE, let's give them all the debate questions in advance and let them have plenty of time to come up with, I dunno, intelligent well-thought-out nuanced complex substantive meaningful answers. (Or the closest some mouth-breathing damnfools can get).

It's not a pop quiz, for crying out loud.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [51 favorites]

I just got invited to my second secret pro-Hillary Facebook group. I needed this today (apparently one wasn't enough!)
posted by misskaz at 5:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

the R party was taken over by a total crank In 1980? That was really the beginning.
posted by Mr. Yuck at 5:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I actually have never really given a rat's ass about debate question secrecy. I'm not really electing based on ability to speak extemporaneously on a randomly ass-pulled topic for 2 minutes. It's not the fucking SATs, it's a chance to hear from both candidates about what their policies and positions are. It's a shitty format for that but it's not improved by this weird veil of secrecy over the questions. So I actually wouldn't care if (and for all we know, they did) the Trump team or anyone else knew a question or two in advance.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [38 favorites]

I polled everyone in my living room and they would like some apple sauce before teeth-brush-an-stories.

Now that's a platform I can get behind. What's the story tonight?
posted by eclectist at 5:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

What is hypocritical is that relatively minor errors of Clinton or her campaign get ten or fifty times the attention of egregiously immoral and/or illegal behavior by Trump. Sometimes it's not even a real error of Clinton or her campaign but it takes over the front page of the NYT anyway. So I'll ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ at minor campaign shenanigans - people make mistakes of judgement. I can forgive that.
posted by R343L at 5:40 PM on November 2, 2016 [53 favorites]

Donald Trump and His Uncanny Resemblance to Horror | The Closer with Keith Olbermann | GQ

One of his better ones.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

(longtime ruiner of own ocular nerves through late-night election thread reading, first time poster)

I'm in the swingiest part of the swingiest state--the I-4 corridor in Florida, where the tide of crazy to the north surges on the shore of the equal (but different) crazy to the south. In the past five hours I've had calls from the Clinton campaign making sure that I was voting for them, another, different call from the Clinton campaign asking me for last-minute donations / volunteering, and a call from a pollster that asked me lots of heavily-loaded questions like "does knowing that Felix McPolitics is a bloated, spherical plutocrat with hotels on both Park Place and Boardwalk and an armchair made out of the taxidermied infants of the poor make you more or less likely to vote for him?" My Facebook feed is like a dumpster fire that someone has attempted to extinguish by repeatedly piling more trash onto. From a political standpoint, it feels like I've put on one of those huge puffy coverall suits with the face mask and am being violently assaulted by dogs.

And yet fall is finally here after a sticky, seemingly-endless summer, bringing with it drier weather, cooler temperatures, and slants of light (someone once told me that, for six months out of the year, you wonder why anyone would ever want to live in Florida, and for the other six you wonder why anyone would ever live anywhere else). The baby gets me up very early, so I'm always awake for the sunrise. I take my coffee out in the front yard, listen to the susurration of the traffic (louder in the early mornings due to some mysterious sonic alchemy I have never understood), and watch the sun start to filter through the Spanish moss hanging from the live oaks. It feels so much like spring mornings in the Northwest during my college days, days that were full of active, smart people having (more or less) intelligent, lucid conversations about politics.

I stand there breathing that in for about ten minutes every morning, and it gets me through most of the day. It's only in the evenings that the itching and the screaming terrors set in.
posted by lorddimwit at 5:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [173 favorites]

Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa. I basically day on the sidelines apart from donating in 2008 despite my great enthusiasm, and dipped a toe in phonebanking and data entry in 2012, but the bullshit email resurrection and attendant tightening (which may even predate the Comey letter, FFS) makes me want to go full fucking bore here. Not that I think Trump might win, but the threatening of the landslide/congressional majority ticks me off bad. LET'S DO THIS.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [104 favorites]

The fabulous Alexandra Erin shares the bitter truth: "The longer this election wears on, the more I feel like @StephenKing's Dead Zone had an optimistic fairy tale ending." It's a set of threaded tweets and well worth reading through to the end.

I posted something similar in one of these threads except, obviously, less eloquent but at least in greater than 140 character chunks. It's obviously what has happened.

This is well known psychologically. It's how you develop blackmail material. It's how you make child soldiers. It's how you make fanatics. Start little by little having them sacrifice a piece of themselves. Every time they do, they're a little more in your power. And you don't even necessarily have to do anything! They've come this far and they can't admit it's been a terrible mistake. They can't admit they've fucked up. So the only way is forward. And, eventually, you get them to do something terrible enough that there is no going back. And they're yours.

That's where Trump's supporters are. They've given themselves up inch by inch and now there isn't anything left but forward. I guess they never read V for Vendetta 'cause they gave up that last inch without even a thought.
posted by Justinian at 5:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [60 favorites]

If we are going to have pop quiz-style debate questions, I wish they were real ones. Not "what up with your emails?" for the 500th time or "please recite your rehearsed statement on your plan for [TOPIC X] that anyone can see on your website," but stuff like "what is your view on Erdogan's assertion of Turkish claims to Mosul and how will these claims impact future US-Turkey relations and US military operations in Iraq?"

Now, if journalists ask questions like that, they're attacked for asking gotcha questions (and I might agree if it was a question about an obscure cold border dispute that gets no press or attention), but that's actually the kind of thing someone who wants to be President should be knowledgeable enough to talk about for a minute or two.
posted by zachlipton at 5:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [33 favorites]

There is a lot of anecdotal evidence suggesting that Republican women are telling their husbands and pollsters that of course they're voting for Trump, but not necessarily planning to do that in the actual secret ballot voting booth largely because of the whole pussy-grabbing dame-numbering dressing-room-invading thing, which women tend to find much more compelling because they've actually had to deal with creeps like that themselves.

The William & Mary College exit polls of Florida early voters showing Republican voters going 28% for Clinton would seem to support this. This is not at all the traditional phenomenon of early voting favoring Democrats. If even a third of that trend holds true, the election is over and Hillary can start ordering the window treatments for the White House.
posted by Bringer Tom at 5:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

Election Forum At Orthodox Synagogue Exposes Rift Among New York City Jews

[Heshy] Friedman, the “Jewish Democrats for Trump” activist, said he voted Democrat in local New York races but supported Republicans at the top of the ticket. [...]

Hmm. Heshy Friedman. Where did I hear that name before. Ah, here it is:

Meet the One-Man Homophobia Machine
According to reports, anti-gay protester Heshy Friedman had to hire day laborers to pose alongside him at New York’s LGBT Pride Parade on Sunday. His hate group may have just one member—himself.

Not only is this story a beat-up (a national report on a meeting held in a local Jewish school that attracted 100 people? And which couldn't even find any pro-Trump speakers?) but they may have based their claims of a "rift" on the ravings of a nutcase. Couldn't they have Googled it?
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]

Seriously though, how bad do you have to be losing to try to get folks to undo already cast votes?

I don't know who would care enough to early vote for Clinton and also be so upset by the Comey letter that they would want to switch to Trump.
posted by zutalors! at 5:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa.

I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you.

Really, thank you, and I hope it goes great!
posted by zachlipton at 5:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [19 favorites]

So those 20-30% Dem early voting margins are basically normal in terms of past elections? Nothing to get excited about?
posted by hoist with his own pet aardvark at 5:55 PM on November 2, 2016

So uh, the Louisiana Senate debate is...something
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Vote for the lizard, not for the wizard...
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Yeah, T.D.Strange, watching it wrap up right now. If you thought the Prez and Veep debates were amateur hour shit shows, let's just say you ain't seen nuthin.
posted by Bringer Tom at 5:58 PM on November 2, 2016

These Wikileaks Emails Prove Just What a Monster Hillary Clinton Is [real emails, sarcastic headline]
posted by misskaz at 6:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

I'm really worried about how fucked the post election culture is going to be. From Trumps crowing about a rigged election to the extremely small but publicly noted voter fraud cases inspired by Trump's campaign, to Trump encouraging early voters to change their vote- its a cascading mess that will be used to delegitimize a Hillary win, and lend itself to uncertainty after the election. Iveorry that the election will end up being the beginning of the madness, not the end.

I'm not sure what's next, but I'm afraid for us.
posted by [insert clever name here] at 6:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

Oh, if you watched the LA SEN debate from the beginning, the reason the moderator let Duke get away with that was that there was an extended shouting match between them earlier over Duke not being allowed extra time to rebut attacks against him by other candidates in the course of answering unrelated questions.
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Hillary can start ordering the window treatments for the White House.

Bill's job.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 6:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [163 favorites]

I can't tell if I'm going to hyperventilate, burst into tears, or vomit. I just pray it's only one of them.
posted by aramaic at 6:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Lisa Bloom, representing the woman accusing Trump of rape, now says:
Our firm's website was reportedly hacked today, as well as emails. Anonymous claims responsibility.

i've been trying to open that site since it was first linked here this afternoon with no luck at all.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

its a cascading mess that will be used to delegitimize a Hillary win, and lend itself to uncertainty after the election.

Worth remembering that various morons claimed that Obama was a secret Kenyan Muslim for 8 whole years, and the wheels of government still turned.

You can burn that bridge when you come to it.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa.

Oh boy good luck to you. I'd never canvass for a Democrat in Tampa, and that's where I grew up. Florida Man is out of his mind.
posted by dis_integration at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm really worried about how fucked the post election culture is going to be.

You forgot the Party of Trump still in control of at least one house of Congress, with an open Supreme Court seat, and a federal government already operating without a budget.

November 8 is not the end, if anything it's only the turning point when things get even worse.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Worth remembering that various morons claimed that Obama was a secret Kenyan Muslim for 8 whole years, and the the wheel of government ~~stilled turned~~ turned for two years then ground to a halt sporadically pushing against themselves to make sure government barely stayed alive.

FTFY.
posted by Talez at 6:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Today the two little girls walking home from school in front of us stopped to read the signs at the Crazy Trump House, which currently read HILLARY IS A CRIMINAL BITCH and something about Bill raping children. I said, "oh don't read that, girls! Please don't read any of that," and they looked uncomfortable like kids do when somebody else's parent reprimands them. (Not my intention, obviously. Oops.)

Then I went home and cried for about the hundredth time this election cycle. There is no way to protect all of the people in this country who need to be protected from all of this.
posted by gerstle at 6:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [93 favorites]

These Wikileaks Emails Prove Just What a Monster Hillary Clinton Is [real emails, sarcastic headline]

I read these and I think, goddamn, this woman is totally a human being! With like, real human feelings and compassion!

VOTE FOR THE ONLY HUMAN BEING 2016
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [35 favorites]

Yeah, what is left of the GOP will move left, the Donnie crowd will form a lunatic third party, and we will all live to see an evolution of the political landscape. The future is here- women and "minorities" are the votes that matter now, and that ought to drive the agenda. Sorry asshole white males, your 200 plus years are over.
posted by vrakatar at 6:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory" and for some reason it makes me so happy, so thank you Justinian, this election has been a time of real joy for me.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 6:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [81 favorites]

Carrying over from previous thread re: WTF OHIO!!!!!????@&$&$-$+#!!!!

1) Ohio, like pretty much every state, is an urban archipelago of blue in a sea of rural/exurban/suburban red. Map of 2012. The blue counties are essentially cities (Cleveland, Columbus, Youngstown, etc.) or college towns (Athens, Bowling Green). Obama managed to capture a fairly high percent of votes in some outlier counties (Ashtabula, Erie), that tend to be total tossups.

2) This year there's some evidence that those outlier counties, especially around Youngstown, maybe even Youngstown proper, are going red. Probably a combo of racial resentment, sexism, and poor economies.

3) But. I think the Ohio results will be enlightening about the value of GOTV /ground games and whether polls are accurately capturing the electorate. I've done 4 canvassing shifts since Oct 12, when early voting started in Ohio. All in pretty low-income areas with mostly black and Latinx residents, calling on Dem voters to encourage them to vote early if possible, or at least make the effort to get out on Nov 8. I've only run into 2 people who are registered who are either not voting or not voting for Hillary. Otherwise it's been "Hell Yeah Hillary." Even the couple of folks who forgot to register. . . .

But only about half of the people I've talked to are the people I've got listed at that address. Low income people move a lot, or are registered at a relative's address. Is the campaign missing folks due to this inaccurate info? Probably. Am I reaching folks who might otherwise not have gotten a friendly nudge, or known they could vote early? Yes.

So. I still hope like hell that Ohio goes blue, and if it does I think it's pretty strong evidence that GOTV efforts work, and that a lot of pollsters should rethink their methodology.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

So what's the deal with Congress? We gonna get a Dem Senate for a little while?
posted by infinitewindow at 6:10 PM on November 2, 2016

Yeah, what is left of the GOP will move left, the Donnie crowd will form a lunatic third party, and we will all live to see an evolution of the political landscape.

Will this really happen? If the GOP was to split in this fashion - into one faction of of what the GOP has historically pretended to be, ie 'real' small government, anti-tax and regulation guys, and then another faction of loose cannon Trumpite racist, sexist assholes - wouldn't that basically assure a Democratic victory in future elections?

Would those smaller parties have any hope of competing against a united Dem party?
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

We gonna get a Dem Senate for a little while?

Remember I said that a Clinton Meta-Margin of +3% is the breakeven point for a Democratic Senate? That’s just about where the race is. Either party could easily end up in control – things are on a knife edge.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Whelp, I am officially taking a week of work to go canvass in Tampa.

Thank you! My ballot left Mississauga this morning en route to Hamilton County, OH, where I last lived in the States* and where my father lives now, but Tampa is home, and what you're doing means a lot to me.

* Because I follow tf through and "just moved to Canada" nine years ago. (FWIW if you complete a two-year degree in Canada, you're eligible for a three-year open work permit, which gives you more than enough time to find employment or shack up—I opted for the latter and became a permanent resident two years ago.)
posted by wreckingball at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory

That didn't last long Off-Broadway...
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]

My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

So a real life example of the republican primaries and Trump's visibility on TV?
posted by [insert clever name here] at 6:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders

Am I the only one who swore that the POTUS was quoting Star Wars?
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [25 favorites]

In this case, I think you're allowed to use stronger language around your four year old than you might otherwise.
posted by mollweide at 6:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

In all seriousness one of my very very bright friends (who happens to be female) made a similar argument about the timing of the claims. But it's just so easy to counter - given what the man himself has said about his behavior and inability or unwillingness to control it and the dozen other women suggesting he was telling the truth about himself, how could we not be more than a little interested in the substance of these claims.

Also, she's making these claims not just to the media, but first and foremost as part of a legal process, which means she'll be deposed, under oath, on pain of perjury charges. There's little reason to doubt her story unless one just really wants to.
posted by Gelatin at 6:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

And now Trump is channelling Gollum.
posted by holgate at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

That's actually fascinating. As a kid I always thought JFK was a bad man and I think it is because i misinterpreted my parents discussions about how sad and tragic his assignation was. What happened to him was bad - not he was bad. Kid brains.
posted by double bubble at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

Would those smaller parties have any hope of competing against a united Dem party?

I'm not sure, but I think the dems- who have rifts of their own- would have to go hard at those newly lefty GOP voters and operatives and maybe cement a several decade majority. If a vanilla, standard repub like Mitt Romney couldn't beat the dems nationally, going down the donnie hole is not going to work for them going forward. Then again every 4 years we focus all this political energy on two candidates, and a terrible candidate with good policies can be beat by an appealing candidate with unclear or shitty policies. Ask John Kerry. That is one reason why I wish we voted for party not person here in the USA, then force the top winning parties to govern together, but I'm a crackpot of some sort.
posted by vrakatar at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Generally, I avoid the fuck out of Facebook, but I've been trying to reconnect with a friend of mine who is only active on Internet social media via Facebook. And like, back in high school, I was part of this circle of nerdy, dorky arts-adjacent kids. We're talking really nerdy. ElfQuest nerdy. Full performances of Rent on back porches nerdy. Urkel if he'd been into Norse mythology nerdy. You can imagine how this went down in the suburbs in the mid-nineties, but hey, one of us had a steady boyfriend! She was dating this guy who was sweet and nerdy and really into playing his trumpet. They really liked each other! He seemed like a good guy!

Tonight, on Facebook, I find out that in the intervening 15 years, the ex-boyfriend has become super-Christian, and is fucking posting on Facebook, approving how his pastor says that voting for Trump is like chemotherapy, because it will feel awful, but will kill what's wrong with America.

Which is offensive to me on multiple levels. First, thanks for trivializing chemotherapy, while also simultaneously rubbing salt into the wounds of every goddamn person who has had a loved one who died of cancer when the chemo didn't work.

And second.

WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK IS THE CANCER IN THIS SCENARIO

BESIDES THE QUEER, NERDY, DORKY, ARTSY LIBERALS WHO SAT AROUND IN A WOOD PANELED BASEMENT WITH YOU FOR FUCKING HOURS, LISTENING TO YOU PLAY YOUR NERDY FUCKING MUSICAL COMPOSITIONS ON THE ELECTRONIC KEYBOARD OF THE GIRL WHO THOUGHT SHE WAS ELFQUEST CHARACTER, AND WAS CONVINCED THAT READING THE COMICS WERE TRIGGERING MEMORIES OF HER PAST LIFE AS A WOLFRIDER

I swear to God. So yes, I guess I know not just one, but two Trump supporters in real life, and for the record, this one is also white and male, and isn't poor either -- apparently, he's a fucking UX designer for a network security firm, and he just bought a lovely new house with four bedrooms in an exurb!
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [81 favorites]

That didn't last long Off-Broadway...

Jesus Christ! Superstar!
Came to earth on a Yamaha!
posted by Talez at 6:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

That is one reason why I wish we voted for party not person here in the USA, then force the top winning parties to govern together, but I'm a crackpot of some sort.

Take it from an Australian, the Westminster system does not guarantee you won't get a gormless grinning sociopath.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I'd earlier asked about driving people to the polls and got some good advice about seeing if churches are doing it, but as I'm not entirely comfortable volunteering through a church and I didn't find anything else, I took the other suggested path and signed up to canvass on election day and on the weekend before, after work. They haven't gotten back to me yet, so I don't know what exactly I'm doing yet, but I'm hoping for decent weather (Duluth can be awful nasty in November.) and not getting sent over to the rich people side of the hill. If I can somehow canvass around where I live, that'd be amazing.

Largely because of everyone here being so supportive and sharing stories about it, I'm going to try my best to ignore the massive anxiety I feel about walking up to a strangers house and asking them about politics in favor of focusing my mind on helping my neighbors vote. Gonna do our best to keep Duluth as blue as the great big lake it's next to.
posted by neonrev at 6:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

My four-year-old told me that she voted for Trump at school today. When I asked why, she said it was because her mom and I talk about him at home all the time. I ... am not sure what to tell her mother.

It's going to be ok. I liked Bush (Senior) when I was around that age, mostly because he had a funny name and I knew what a bush was, and also because he was for low taxes, a policy position that was immediately appealing to young me, because taxes meant people taking away your stuff and getting seemingly nothing in return. This too will pass.
posted by zachlipton at 6:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

So yes, I guess I know not just one, but two Trump supporters in real life,

Only two? Lordy, do I envy you or what?!?!
posted by double bubble at 6:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

I actually don't know any. But I'm not on Facebook really so that constrains the number of people I "know."
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I liked Bush (Senior) when I was around that age, mostly because he had a funny name

There was like a week back in 2000 when 8 year-old me heard the name Nader and got really excited until my parents stopped me somehow. Kids like funny names, and the ones they hear the most stick better.
posted by neonrev at 6:34 PM on November 2, 2016

David Duke just had a literal meltdown on television. Hopefully he's done.
posted by guiseroom at 6:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

Only two? Lordy, do I envy you or what?!?!

The people I know generally fit into circles on a Venn diagram labeled:

1. Non-white people, and white people who married them.
2. LGBTQA people.
3. Professional women doing it for themselves in spite of domineering white asshole men who think their wealth makes them more important and brilliant than they are.

It isn't Trump-friendly soil.
posted by joyceanmachine at 6:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

We would have been better if in January we had allowed journalists to say, "with all due respect, are you insane?"
posted by Talez at 6:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

I was part of this circle of nerdy, dorky arts-adjacent kids. We're talking really nerdy. ElfQuest nerdy. Full performances of Rent on back porches nerdy.

Wait. Rent kids were still reading Elfquest?!

I have hope for the future.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

I actually don't know any.

Not only do I know A LOT of people supporting Trump, I know plenty of people i (formerly) considered rational, reasonable and smart who support Trump. I'm kinda depressed about myself thinking about it. I'm sure my ties to people in Oklahoma are skewing my "friend sample set" but even with that, I've had a few real surprises amongst my acquaintances. It's been a real eye opener.
posted by double bubble at 6:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

Yeah I don't know any Trump people either as far as I know. All the Bernie people I know are now happily for Clinton. I know one longtime Republican who is voting Johnson.
posted by zutalors! at 6:44 PM on November 2, 2016

We would have been better if in January we had allowed journalists to say, "with all due respect, are you insane?"

I think there's a compelling class action case against CNN to force Jeff Zucker to divvy that extra $100m among the entire population.
posted by holgate at 6:46 PM on November 2, 2016

The people I know generally fit into circles on a Venn diagram labeled:

This makes me unaccountably happy. My wife thanks you for rescuing my mood, which had gone pretty much to hell earlier.

I love this place.
posted by Mooski at 6:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

So this is...different

WaPo Trump: U.S. should accept ‘tremendous numbers’ of legal immigrants based on merit

PENSACOLA, Fla. — After months of declaring that he would curtail legal and illegal immigration, Donald Trump proclaimed at a campaign rally on Wednesday night that as president he would allow “tremendous numbers” of legal immigrants based on a “merit system.”

“I want people to come in. I want tremendous numbers of people to come in,” Trump said at a rally here, his third campaign stop in Florida on Wednesday. “And we’re going to have that big, beautiful door in the wall. But you know what? They have to come in through a process. They have to come in legally.”

Trump was then cut off by loud cheers from the crowd and many of his supporters shouting: “Legally!”

“They have to come in legally,” Trump said, continuing. “And we’ll have merit involved, too. Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country? Wouldn’t that be nice? Somebody said: 'You can’t say that; that’s not politically correct.' Well, I just said it, folks.”

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 6:49 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Looks like the Cubs may pull out a World Series victory.

A very worried part of me thinks that some loyal Cubs fan made a truly evil pact with a ghoul in exchange for a title which has been the cause of the crazy year of 2016, which will end with Trump's election and the end of world in a nuclear Armageddon type fashion.

So, I've got no love for the Indians but I hope they win.
posted by localhuman at 6:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

No one check the Cubs score.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

The FBI's investigation into the Clinton Foundation that has been going on for more than a year has now taken a "very high priority," separate sources with intimate knowledge of the probe tell Fox News.

The Congressional Republicans are right. This will never literally end.
posted by Talez at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".

I wasn't aware that he was running for office but I suppose if any republicans want to write him in instead of voting for Trump, I won't complain.
posted by nolnacs at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

the non-deplorable part of the working class

They are voting for Clinton. And they voted for Clinton in greater numbers than for Sanders in the primary too.

Or do you mean "white working class?" Because at this point the actual working class is decidedly more brown, female, and urban than either Trumps' or Sanders' constituency. And Hillary is winning them bigly, as she did in the primary.

The issue has little to do with the actual infests of working class people. But if you watch TV you'd think "working class" meant only white folks, and all those brown city women earning $11 an hour cleaning hotels and caring for children and taking care of the elderly are obviously the elite bourgeoisie. Whereas a white coal miner or machinist earning three times as much is an oppressed worker whose needs must be considered as special, because whiteness.

Yeah there are a lot of poor white people, and they are majority for Trump just like middle class white people. It isn't because Trunp is a champion of the interests of workers, but because he a champion of white privilege.

Liberals need to be cautious about the easy collapse of the category of "working class" into the category of "white guy in hard hat worried about his job." It's easy to do.

The party supported by most non-white working-class people is the party that supports broad working-class economic interests like a robust safety net and workplace safety regulations and a higher minimum wage and universal health coverage and cheaper higher education. If they voted their economic rather than cultural interests, white workers would be in solidarity and be much better off.
posted by spitbull at 6:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [109 favorites]

Secret Life of Gravy:

That kind of merit system probably goes something like this:
White ✓
Heternormative ✓

I imagine him and his supporters are daydreaming about some kind of repeat of European immigration to the US.
posted by constantinescharity at 6:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Less FBI harassing Clinton and more Elfquest please
posted by Brainy at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

Tonight, on Facebook, I find out that in the intervening 15 years, the ex-boyfriend has become super-Christian...

Dude. Dude! I have one of those, too! Not an ex, but my best friend for awhile was a liberal Buddhist guy who loved to wear women's clothes out to queer clubs on weekends. I taught him how to do makeup and he taught me to check my privilege. Now he's a Trump loving doomsday prepper who lives in the wilds of Alaska and literally keeps a small plane gassed up out back in case the government comes to take his guns. Like, HOW IS THIS A THING THAT CAN HAPPEN. I accepted his friend request a few years ago, but after reading his wall I just sat back in morbid fascination as I watched this creature evolve. I am occasionally tempted to cautiously ask him what happened, but I am too scared.
posted by xyzzy at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [31 favorites]

I do know a couple of salty Berners but as far as I know they are holding their noses to save us from the obviously much worse option.

Among my co-workers, one is a former OFA field organizer and Trump is a universal grim joke in the office. Liz Warren came to give a rally that happened to be held in my building (there's a ballroom upstairs) and several of my colleagues turned up to cheer loudly. My parents are libertarians and despise Trump. My in-laws are lifelong liberal Democrats and my mother in law was a SEIU union organizer for many years. One of my friends is the Democratic mayor of one of those small dying Western PA mill towns and she is totally in the bag for Hillz. My social circle is not Trump friendly.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

“They have to come in legally,” Trump said, continuing. “And we’ll have merit involved, too. Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country? Wouldn’t that be nice? Somebody said: 'You can’t say that; that’s not politically correct.' Well, I just said it, folks.”

It's quite close to what he was saying during his big immigration speech back on Aug 31 -- part of the path to citizenship would depend on the "ability to successfully assimilate" and "we" get to choose who stays. He didn't go into exactly what or how we defined merit, but the gesture was there even back then.
posted by mochapickle at 6:57 PM on November 2, 2016

Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".

I wasn't aware that he was running for office but I suppose if any republicans want to write him in instead of voting for Trump, I won't complain.

That's Republican, we count those.
posted by ymgve at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country?

Rich people. Talk about pay for play....
posted by vrakatar at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

So what'd David Duke do? I'm curious but not curious enough to watch the video and have to actually listen to him talk
posted by Sing Or Swim at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Just for the sake of clarity:

Dude. Dude! I have one of those, too! Not an ex, but

The guy in my comment did not date me. He dated my nerdy friend with whom I used to eat Jelly Bellys and make up Norse god fanfiction. In fact, I think the nerdy friend is currently a mefite, because I spotted on her Ask Metafilter a while back. :D
posted by joyceanmachine at 7:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Every time I think, "This feels a lot like Prop 8, nobody I know would vote for it, and the polls were leaning anti-, but still it passed," I come visit the new election thread to be reassured. So, thanks.
posted by blnkfrnk at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Yeah, none of my people are trump people, but I just don't talk politics with people I think are likely to be trumpists. Because I just don't want to know. I can't. This election is breaking my heart, and I just cannot. But, like I said before, I haven't been on Facebook since summer 2015, and I just don't have it in me to go back now.

I am not sure I would have made it through this election sane without all y'all.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".
I wasn't aware that he was running for office

well he had woody guthrie's vote
posted by entropicamericana at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Soooooooo, Trump's "new" immigration policy sounds like the one we've had in place for years.

Such a nasty man.
posted by allthinky at 7:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

After signing up months ago as a potential volunteer and donating a few times, I got my first call from the Hillary campaign today. I guess I shouldn't have expected there to be many events here in Red-as-Hell Louisiana, but I was still surprised that I haven't been contacted outside of the zillion emails a day asking for more donations. The guy left a message (I was on a work call at the time) asking me to come to the local HQ to make calls. I may actually go, just to feel like I've contributed something.

This sounds way more glum than I intended, but I guess I'm just sad to be in a sea of red where there is never much interest from the democrats, and where I feel like my vote is pointless (I will absolutely always vote anyway). Maybe I'm just exhausted by this whole campaign. Hopefully on Tuesday night I'll be getting drunk with friends and celebrating a Hillary victory, and this funk will be lifted.
posted by tryniti at 7:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [15 favorites]

David Duke just had a literal meltdown on television. Hopefully he's done.

He's been done since he plowed his campaign finances into his gambling addiction back in 1995 (which one of his R opponents actually brought up in the debate). I'm frankly a bit surprised that some Russian mafioso hasn't whacked him for further gambling debts. He only barely squeaked onto the debate stage via the 5% polling cutoff and there was never any realistic chance that he would make the runoff. Unfortunately, there's also not much chance that either of the Democrats will make it either, but that's another shit show.
posted by Bringer Tom at 7:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Every morning for the past two months as I drive in to work, I pass a large billboard that exhorts "Vote for Jesus!".

A few years back he greeted everyone at my polling place. It was awkward.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

David Frum: The Conservative Case for Voting for Clinton:

This November, however, I am voting not to advance my wish-list on taxes, entitlements, regulation, and judicial appointments. I am voting to defend Americans' profoundest shared commitment: a commitment to norms and rules that today protect my rights under a president I don’t favor, and that will tomorrow do the same service for you.

Vote the wrong way in November, and those norms and rules will shudder and shake in a way unequaled since the Union won the Civil War.

I appreciate that Donald Trump is too slovenly and incompetent to qualify as a true dictator. This country is not so broken as to allow a President Trump to arrest opponents or silence the media. Trump is a man without political ideas. Trump's main interest has been and will continue to be self-enrichment by any means, no matter how crooked. His next interest after that is never to be criticized by anybody for any reason, no matter how justified—maybe most especially when justified. Yet Trump does not need to achieve a dictatorship to subvert democracy. This is the age of “illiberal democracy,” as Fareed Zakaria calls it, and across the world we’ve seen formally elected leaders corrode democratic systems from within. Surely the American system of government is more robust than the Turkish or Hungarian or Polish or Malaysian or Italian systems. But that is not automatically true. It is true because of the active vigilance of freedom-loving citizens who put country first, party second. Not in many decades has that vigilance been required as it is required now.

Your hand may hesitate to put a mark beside the name, Hillary Clinton. You’re not doing it for her. The vote you cast is for the republic and the Constitution.

posted by zachlipton at 7:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [72 favorites]

Judge: North Carolina Voter Challenge Process Seems 'Insane'
posted by Chrysostom at 7:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

If anyone needs a quiet, calming, earnestly humorous TV show where the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives and there's lots of slow mo pastoral beauty and folk music, I cannot reccomend binge watching both seasons of Detectorists on Netflix highly enough. I'm on my second go through. It briefly restores my faith in people for 30 minutes at a time and soothes me with acoustic guitars.

Self-care, y'all. It's important.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

So what'd David Duke do? I'm curious but not curious enough to watch the video and have to actually listen to him talk

Went on and on at the moderator about being interrupted and having a right to respond and the media deciding who can speak and him not being allowed to answer and not getting a chance to make his statement and being silenced and the government is targeting him.

Also, he overpaid his taxes by $6,000.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:12 PM on November 2, 2016

scaryblackdeath: hang out with your friends and don't worry about your girlfriend. Sounds like she'll be distracted and fine.

I have my volunteer job going on all night that night, which means sadly I have to stay sober. No TV but we have Internet. I'm going to bring in Chinese food and probably hog the computer all night.

I am listening to Mike Daisey's The Trump Card while I read and drink. I am also writing my NaNo novel on presidents this year so....writing about Washington, who was so modest he didn't want to put himself forward. Yeah. I miss those days that I never saw.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

" praying-while-atheist"

Mimicking the way some voters have liked to exchange vote-swaps between safe and swing states, this year the Democratic Party will be arranging invocation swaps. You, as an atheist Democratic voter, commit to performing multiple profane curses on behalf of a religious Democratic voter, who will in turn perform the same number of prayers to one or more deities on your behalf. In this fashion Democrats can maximize both the prayers and curses on their candidates' behalfs without violating any rules. Please follow @AngelsAndDemonsDNC on Twitter for updates!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [34 favorites]

While Tuesday will definitely be a day for anti-anxiety medication in general I feel like the Comey bullshit has been safely defused. I suspect it was never really about helping Trump out too much but instead helping down-ballot Republicans get the wavering Republican voters.

NC and Virginia are looking more and more solid all the time which helps with weakness in Ohio. Florida will be a nailbiter but I strongly suspect that LV screens are unfairly hampering Clinton in regards to first time voters.

I also feel cautiously optimistic about the Senate although the GOP is dropping some serious cash to take down Bayh in Indiana. Most analysts seem to think a 51-49 or 50-50 Dem split.

House of course will stay useless but Issa looks like he's probably toast so small comfort.

Clinton+ Senate Majority for 2016-2018 means Scalia and RBG seats get replaced which seems like about the limit of what's actually achievable.
posted by vuron at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2016

earnestly humorous TV show where the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives

Well, except for Simon and Garfunkel.
posted by valkane at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

...I suppose if any republicans want to write [Jesus] in instead of voting for Trump, I won't complain.

Hey, now, it's dirty pool to encourage anyone to vote for an ineligible candidate, even your opponents!

After all, Jesus was only 33 when he died (and rose again, but once you're dead I don't think you're eligible any more: even Byrd had to give up his seat eventually), and he wasn't born in the United States or to parents who are citizens. So, sorry, Son of the Risen Lord, but you may not be elected President of the United States.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Ye ha David Frum.
posted by vrakatar at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Went on and on at the moderator about being interrupted and having a right to respond and the media deciding who can speak and him not being allowed to answer and not getting a chance to make his statement and being silenced and the government is targeting him.

So basically he's doing exactly what Trump has been doing?

Also, he overpaid his taxes by $6,000.

Ah.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:16 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

I know four Trump supporters, none younger than their mid-fifties.

I've actually been very happily surprised quite a few times over the last year when people who I was afraid might be for Trump turned out to be totally the opposite.
posted by octothorpe at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh, and here's a link to The Guardian's report where David Duke talking (later in that "debate") about how "there is a problem in America with a very strong, powerful, tribal group that dominates our media and dominates our international banking". In case that was too subtle for the audience, he goes on with "I’m not opposed to all Jews [...]"
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Well, except for Simon and Garfunkel

Yeah but the guitar riff that plays whenever they show up makes me bark-laugh every single time.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Clinton+ Senate Majority for 2016-2018 means Scalia and RBG seats get replaced which seems like about the limit of what's actually achievable.

RBG isn't going to step down just for Clinton. She's in good shape for her 80s and the Court is her life with her husband gone now. I doubt she's the next to go, my bet would be Kennedy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:20 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

My dog has slowly been chewing her Dognald Trump toy to bits. Tonight, before I could grab it from her, she swallowed the last scrap of his face. All that's left of him is his scalp of horrible hair...and one tiny little fist.

Time to put his remnants in our basket of deplorables aka the garbage.
posted by sallybrown at 7:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [37 favorites]

All that's left of him is his scalp of horrible hair...and one tiny little fist.

That sounds like the end of Roald Dahl's version of this year's election.
posted by Joey Michaels at 7:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [52 favorites]

Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory" and for some reason it makes me so happy, so thank you Justinian, this election has been a time of real joy for me.

where is my app to launch this false messiah into the sun
posted by poffin boffin at 7:23 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

I doubt she's the next to go, my bet would be Kennedy.

That would be great, but I've heard Breyer is pretty sick of it, and ready to go.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:25 PM on November 2, 2016

soren_lorenson! I'm watching Detectorists for the second time, this go-around with my mother. We have just one more episode to go (but season three is in the works, from what I hear) and we will both be sad to see it end. It is the best antidote to the utter bullshit scaring my mom. So, so sweet. Be brave! Trivia isn't necessarily trivial. Friendships are the stuff of a full life. It's about the journey, not the destination. (And don't drink Shelia's lemonade.) This is the sort of show I tell all my friends about, then consider making new ones so I can tell them about it, too.
posted by thebrokedown at 7:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

I finally got around to watching The Prisoner. Last night, I watched the election episode. And suddenly 2016 and Trump and the whole madness make sense. It's all an elaborate con, and we're the unwitting participants. Carefully designed to make Number 6 completely unhinged and finally spill his secrets.
posted by honestcoyote at 7:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

Both Trump and Clinton will be in midtown Manhattan on Tuesday night. That's not going to be a great commute home.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

So will Clinton(who is a big Cubs fan) be willing to wear a Cubs Jersey and risk losing Ohio? I mean it's the Cubs and a possible World Series win.
posted by vuron at 7:27 PM on November 2, 2016

Chobani’s CEO Gets Death Threats for Giving Jobs to Refugees
[Chobani founder and CEO] Ulukaya is a Turkish immigrant of Kurdish descent who came to the US, bought a run-down Kraft yogurt factory in a depressed upstate New York town with a loan from the Small Business Administration, and built a dream. Ten years later, he employs 2,000 people in New York and Idaho, and announced in April that he was going to give 10 percent of the company’s ownership to its employees—an act that made some employees instant millionaires. Chobani pays even low-level employees over minimum wage, and offers full-time employees health benefits, 401(k) plans, and parental leave, even for factory workers. Last year, he signed Warren Buffett’s Giving Pledge, promising to give away a majority of his fortune to charities.
posted by Room 641-A at 7:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [114 favorites]

I've actually been very happily surprised quite a few times over the last year when people who I was afraid might be for Trump turned out to be totally the opposite.

That's what is keeping me overall optimistic about the outcome of the election. Even my friends or acquaintances who happen to be republican, some incredibly republican and rode the anti-Clinton wave through the 90s and beyond, are all voting for Clinton if they live in swing states or obstaining in blue/red states. All of them are even trying to convince their many more republican acquaintances to come to their senses and are aghast at the ones who haven't come around.
posted by milarepa at 7:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

The one house on my bike commute route (from the far northern bit of Chicago - Edgewater and Rogers Park - into Evanston) with Republican downticket yard signs has conspicuously lacked any presidential signs. Today a Clinton/Kaine sign popped up next to the Kirk one; apparently they're #NeverTrump. (Corb's not alone!) I know I know don't worry about signs too much, and to be fair much of my commute is along multifamily houses and apartment buildings that're less likely to have visible signs on a lawn (or a lawn at all), but for such a solidly Democratic area there've been few signs, and so this one - and the two or three others that've popped up in the last week - have lowered my JCPL-equivalent a bit.

A very worried part of me thinks that some loyal Cubs fan made a truly evil pact with a ghoul in exchange for a title which has been the cause of the crazy year of 2016, which will end with Trump's election and the end of world in a nuclear Armageddon type fashion.

So, I've got no love for the Indians but I hope they win.

I grew up in Cleveland, so I admit to certain unavoidably partisan leanings here, but I was actually debating whether a World Series loss might depress voting turnout in the Democratic stronghold of NE Ohio, handing over the state to Trump. (And whether conversely a victory might help GOTV efforts due to a happier and more optimistic regional mood.)
posted by ubersturm at 7:30 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Will this really happen? If the GOP was to split in this fashion - into one faction of of what the GOP has historically pretended to be, ie 'real' small government, anti-tax and regulation guys, and then another faction of loose cannon Trumpite racist, sexist assholes - wouldn't that basically assure a Democratic victory in future elections?

Would those smaller parties have any hope of competing against a united Dem party?

The GOP is in a very interesting bind right now. Whether they split in half or not, I think, they won't be winning any more presidential elections; the deplorable wing is driving too many people away, and has been since 2004. But the deplorable wing is winning seats in Congress, and holding state legislatures. And I don't think the deplorables will go dormant again - like I said, they're winning. And they've been growing steadily since 2004.

So the GOP is in more or less the same boat the Democrats were in, in the last third of the 20th century, after LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act and lost the South - they can't wash the stink off. But they can't use the Democrats' plan to regain prominence, because there isn't one. The Dems just flailed and disappointed everyone until demographics caught up with them. (And, more crucially, the Republicans started throwing away Black and Hispanic votes.) Demographics aren't going to go backwards. (But the Dems might start throwing away votes.)

So, the GOP is screwed as a party, but we still have to live with them taking a dump on the House floor live on C-SPAN.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 7:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory" and for some reason it makes me so happy, so thank you Justinian, this election has been a time of real joy for me.

That's where all the Diesel Powered Nuns work.
posted by AlonzoMosleyFBI at 7:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Finally signed up Mrs photo guy and myself to go canvassing this weekend. I probably should've signed up sooner but had too much else going on - better late than never though I guess.

I know four Trump supporters, none younger than their mid-fifties.

I know two diehard Trump fans, one of whom is a 60-something coworker (did I mention were Feds? Yeah I can't wrap my head around that either). The other is only in his 30s but otherwise seems to fit the stereotype.
posted by photo guy at 7:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Btw for those of you who filled out an online form to volunteer, if you do get contacted it's going to be by phone and they may not leave a message if it's another volunteer making the call. Answer your phone even if it's an unfamiliar or out of state number. They don't do this stuff through email, generally.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Also lots of volunteer events are listed online. Just pick a time and show up. If you're reasonably willing to do a variety of things they will probably not be annoyed.
posted by R343L at 7:45 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

“They have to come in legally,” Trump said, continuing. “And we’ll have merit involved, too. Wouldn’t it be nice if we went a little bit on the merit system? We take people that are really going to help us to grow our country? Wouldn’t that be nice? Somebody said: 'You can’t say that; that’s not politically correct.' Well, I just said it, folks.”

This is strange, because I have a whole lot of experience with the existing US immigration system and it's merit-based already. Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?
posted by ugly at 7:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

@Evan_McMullin
I would seek to be one of the weakest presidents in modern times, because I want to return more power to the states.

Oh honey.
posted by acidic at 7:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [44 favorites]

Dear Evan McMullin: not that I ever need to care about you for a second in life, but "state's rights" and "more power to the states" only leads to madness and civil wars.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Lisa Bloom, representing the woman accusing Trump of rape, now says:
Our firm's website was reportedly hacked today, as well as emails. Anonymous claims responsibility.

It was down at least an hour before the scheduled start of the press conference. I tried to look at it and timed out.

Think the FBI is investigating that DDOS attack? BWAHAHAAHAHAAHA
posted by msalt at 7:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

McMuffin does the whole dogwhistle stuff much better. What's sad is talking in code about returning power to the states seems like rational thought in comparison to Trump rhetoric.
posted by vuron at 7:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

So, the Trump "victory party" is invitation-only at the Midtown Hilton, and the Clinton one is "sign up online to learn more" at the Javits Center.

Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

Because the kind of Trump supporters who show up at rallies don't know a fucking thing about the immigration system and think that the US is populated by citizens (first-class: white; second-class: non-white) and illegal immigrants. And because of refugees, who to Trump supporters are human timebombs.

The Trump "merit" system would be "under 25 and at least an 8" for women, and "willing to get stiffed on wages then sent back home" for men. No browns.
posted by holgate at 7:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [24 favorites]

States don't have rights. Only people (and corporations) have rights. States have delegated authority.
posted by teirnon at 7:53 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]

I grew up in Cleveland, so I admit to certain unavoidably partisan leanings here, but I was actually debating whether a World Series loss might depress voting turnout in the Democratic stronghold of NE Ohio, handing over the state to Trump.

C'mon, it's Cleveland. We're used to losing. Hell, I'd be more concerned about a win - we wouldn't know what to do with ourselves, and turnout would be depressed because everyone would still be drunk.

Also, from my experiences GOTV canvassing, white folks might get all mopey and stay home, black and Latinx folks are pissed. People are itching to give Trump a righteous smackdown at the polls, and the fact that they actually like Hillary is icing on the cupcake.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Talez: The FBI's investigation into the Clinton Foundation that has been going on for more than a year has now taken a "very high priority," separate sources with intimate knowledge of the probe tell Fox News.

The Congressional Republicans are right. This will never literally end.

Obama needs to fire Comey (Nov. 9th if not now) and stick someone trustworthy in the role. They need to purge the FBI of politically motivated elements and restore impartiality, or at least make it blue instead of red. Yeah, it'll look a little corrupt, but much less corrupt than having a hostile FBI director attacking the president for their entire term, and after the election it won't matter for four years (by which time people will have mostly forgotten about it.)
posted by Mitrovarr at 7:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Dan Ilic of Fusion Media interviews McMuffin, and pitches him some campaign slogans.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

This is strange, because I have a whole lot of experience with the existing US immigration system and it's merit-based already. Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

He's said a bunch of things like this before, so it's not that new for him. I think there's a distinction between the employment-based US immigration system, which is sort of merit-based (qualifications-based I guess, it's certainly not a points system like some countries have, which have their own problems) and the family-based system, which is where the majority of immigrants come from. The right-wing talking point I've heard a bunch on this is that we admit too many immigrants because they are family members of US citizens and permanent residents (after endless waiting periods) and not enough based on qualifications and skills.

It's not PC because it knocks family unification and because it doesn't take a lot of imagination to guess what kind of merit-based system Trump would setup.

He also has demonstrated that he has absolutely no clue how the current legal immigration system works, who can and can't come legally and how long they have to wait for things, etc...
posted by zachlipton at 7:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

after the election it won't matter for four years (by which time people will have mostly forgotten about it.

If there's anything this election has made clear, it is that years and decades old events will come back to haunt you, whether they actually occurred or not.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 7:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

I hate to break this to you, but Mr. Trump stands in front of thousands of people and describes a reality that simply does not exist.
posted by valkane at 7:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Dan Ilic of Fusion Media interviews McMuffin, and pitches him some campaign slogans.

Big points in Egg's favor: sense of humor, ability to take a joke.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

One of the guys who plays in my D&D group is a vocal Trump supporter. It's earned him a fairly frosty reception that led to him approaching me last week to ask why some of the group didn't seem to like him. (I am apparantly the nice, approachable one). I pointed out that I am a queer, non-citizen/immigrant jew and the other members of the group were various shades of liberal. Also, my best friend (our barbarian) is protective as fuck and whenever he talked about Trump not meaning all [minority] only the fact she works at the store we play at kept her from yelling. a lot.

This week, he didn't talk politics once. His Facebook hasn't had a horrible Trump meme or statement, either.

It was so beautiful, guys.
posted by Torosaurus at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [101 favorites]

Every time I see JCPL, I read "Jesus Christ Propulsion Laboratory"

Don't tell anyone, but I hear they have some sort of two wheeled, human powered mechanism for Him they are skunkworking.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Huh, I was sure that Trump would hold his election night rally at Trump Tower, so at the end of the night they could seal it all up like a pharaoh's pyramid.

Plus, it would be one last thing to bill to the campaign.
posted by ckape at 8:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

States don't have rights. Only people (and corporations) have rights. States have delegated authority.

Well, to modern American conservatives, the Supremacy Clause ranks in priority somewhere between a school board bylaw and a tree fort pinky swear. The fact that the Founders talked about "these United States" a lot is enough to assume that they were just joshin' us with the crazy idea that the federal government should have any power at all.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jesus was headed out to vote when he ran into the Beatles who scared him off because they are bigger than Jesus.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

This country is not so broken as to allow a President Trump to arrest opponents or silence the media

Frum seems unaware of how the. FBI treated the left & organized labor under Harding's AG, Daugherty. Or maybe that was legitimate law enforcement from a Republican perspective.
posted by Coventry at 8:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

Lawrence O'Donnell highlighted the Republican #NeverTrump movement and is pushing a narrative that the movement might be the only thing standing between us and Trump holding up his right hand in front of the Capitol on January 20th. To explain this, he showed polls where Republicans down tickets are massively outperforming the top of the ticket. I am not sure I buy this narrative, but I appreciate his efforts to applaud reasonable Republicans who have been fighting Trump from the get go.
posted by xyzzy at 8:07 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Why would it be not-PC to describe the system aptly?

I thought this question was rhetorical.
posted by zutalors! at 8:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Clinton is running just running national ads with Trump being an asshole at this point. Doesn't even have to say a word.
posted by vuron at 8:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

David Duke just had a literal meltdown on television. Hopefully he's done.

I eagerly clicked on this link and was HIGHLY disappointed not to see a Wicked Witch-like puddle with a shrill "I'm melllllting!" wail from this walking, talking, pile of excrement...
posted by TwoStride at 8:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if Trump is elected," I say ...

Canada ain't far enough away. Have you considered New Zealand?
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 8:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I tried looking into moving to Canada, but Canada doesn't want me.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:15 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

They can afford to be picky these days, jenfullmoon -- lots to choose from, you know?
posted by wenestvedt at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Canada ain't far enough away. Have you considered New Zealand?

Neither of which wants you if you or a dependent family member are autistic, BTW.
posted by Lexica at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Have you considered New Zealand?

Economists warn Trump victory would be 'horrible' for NZ economy
posted by Paragon at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

This was mentioned upthread, but this Awl piece really is the tombstone on all the "Let's try and understand Trump voters" articles.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Dana Milbank: Dear Donald Trump: I want my $49 back

As one of the loudest Trump critics, I thought it would be exquisite to have my name engraved as part of the “select group” on Trump’s wall. I clicked through and authorized the $49 charge to my credit card.

And then, nothing. No acknowledgment. No response. No word about any wall with my name on it. I checked my spam filter: nothing. I checked my Visa statement: The charge had gone through.

Stiffed! And at great personal risk. Post employees aren’t supposed to donate to campaigns, and in 16 years I hadn’t — until the lure of Trump’s wall got me. We don’t want a contribution to create the appearance that we’re in the tank for a candidate, even if, in the case of Trump and me, the probability of creating such an impression is fairly low. My editors gave me the proverbial 40 lashes for my $49.

[Discussion about all the other people Trump has stiffed in his past]

I wrote to Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks on Wednesday and asked whether she could tell me where I could find my name on the Trump Tower donor wall, or refund my $49. She indicated she was looking into it, but nothing happened.

I bet Trump isn’t even building that wall — and I paid for it!

posted by zachlipton at 8:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

FBI More Out of Control Then We Knew

Purge really isn't an inappropriate word here, it's absolutely what must happen, starting with Comey and going, deep, deep into the rank and file. This is a rogue agency trying to usurp control of the country, it's literally the enemy within.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

Than, TPM. THAN.
posted by dis_integration at 8:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

Josh Marshall is a pretty heavy typo-er.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

He's no pre-Vox-actually-has-a-copy-editor Matt Yglesias, tho.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'll be working the polls again here in $STATE, so I'm pretty up-to-date on the procedures and requirements around registering and voting here. Out of curiosity, I clicked on the 'How to vote in every state' link for my state.

Wow! The video was very thorough and very detailed, and correct in every regard. What an incredible resource for people!

I can't imagine the amount of work that was required to nail all of that down for all 50 states.
posted by teatime at 8:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Guys, the cancelled Jane Doe press conference was a few miles from where I live. If there's another one would it be worth it for me to liveblog it to y'all?
posted by moonlight on vermont at 8:32 PM on November 2, 2016 [23 favorites]

Yes!
posted by wenestvedt at 8:33 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

He's no pre-Vox-actually-has-a-copy-editor Matt Yglesias, tho.

Does anyone listen to the Weeds podcast? Yglesias is one of the biggest male uptalkers I've ever heard. I have nothing against uptalkers of any gender, but I swear I walk around uptalking for five straight hours after a Weeds episode.
posted by zutalors! at 8:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Yes please.
posted by Rykey at 8:35 PM on November 2, 2016

I -- just read that whole comment in uptalk. *shakes head vigorously*
posted by maudlin at 8:36 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

I liked this blog post: And Crown thy Good with Sisterhood:

This past weekend, I watched my oldest daughter create picture after picture after picture of a gracefully aging woman wearing pants next to the words GIRL POWER and thought back to when I was her age and what GIRL POWER looked like to me -- Pink Power Rangers and She-Ra and Catwoman -- women who were literally warriors... who hid behind costumes and masks in order to fight back. In those days, GIRL POWER felt like a costume girls wore on Halloween -- a store-bought cape in pink instead of blue -- a cartoon. …

This is not an election about right vs left or woman vs man or even right vs wrong. This election is about our children's future vs our parents' past. This is an election where we get to choose between exclusion and inclusion, walls and windows, breaking barriers or condemning progress. And we cannot, as a nation, as a people choose NOT to grow up.

posted by Lexica at 8:39 PM on November 2, 2016 [60 favorites]

So let me see if I have this right. A Republican operative writes a book attacking the Clintons. It's published by Breitbart, led by the guy who would become Trump's campaign manager. Somebody gives that book to the FBI, who starts an investigation, interviewing the author repeatedly. Eventually, they present their evidence and both career FBI leadership and career public integrity prosecutors conclude there's not enough to it and the FBI agents are ordered to do something else with their time, but they get mad and keep investigating anyway? Then everybody involved leaks like crazy to the WSJ.

This seems like an accusation-laundering factory capable of ruining anybody's life. And I think it's clear that Comey needs to go not because of the letter, but because he simply doesn't have the slightest bit of control over his agency and his staff is spending more time leaking than fighting crime.
posted by zachlipton at 8:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [72 favorites]

For those of you watching the nailbiter at Wrigley Field: Remember when it looked like the Cubs were for sure going to win the World series a few hours ago and everyone got cocky? Go vote, America..
posted by dis_integration at 8:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Obama will almost certainly pressure Comey to fall on his sword after the election. He definitely can't allow him to stay around and it's clear that Comey has lost control over the agency or he's a partisan hack. Neither is remotely acceptable.
posted by vuron at 8:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Rasmussen still has Cubs up 7-5!

--@MattNegrin
posted by zachlipton at 8:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

Jesus, reading that TPM article makes me wonder if anyone hires copy editors anymore. But the civil war he's describing there is the conclusion MeFites arrived at on Friday or Saturday, right? I'm pretty sure I posted something that called for a workplace culture investigation on the level of the one they did at NASA after the Challenger explosion. Something very, very sick is happening there if rogue agents are allowed to just do whatever the hell they want without repercussions.

The Brennan Center for Justice made a compelling case back in 2014 not just for fixing the FBI but also ticking off the reasons it should be fixed. Note that the case was written by a former FBI agent.

Some interesting tidbits:

Comey’s new fear-mongering is part of his continuing effort to transform the FBI into a full-fledged domestic intelligence agency. For anyone concerned about unchecked government power, this is a bad idea. And for anyone only concerned with effective security, it is even worse... An FBI agent merely asking questions about a political candidate, a religious leader, or a community activist can start rumors that destroy reputations and alter destinies, without ever leveling charges that could be defended.

posted by xyzzy at 8:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [36 favorites]

A rain delay as a tied World Series moves into extra innings with a dark storm visible on radar. A metaphor? 2016 is the worst.
posted by zachlipton at 8:56 PM on November 2, 2016 [34 favorites]

2016: everything is trolling and everything is a metaphor of everything else, including the trolling.
posted by holgate at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

Oh Cleveland zeroed in the 9th? Hooray!
posted by Oyéah at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2016

A rain delay as a tied World Series moves into extra innings with a dark storm visible on radar. A metaphor? 2016 is the worst.

TTTCS!

I'm not going through another hanging chad nightmare. There are no 10th innings or rain delays for this election. It ends in 6 days or I do.
posted by dis_integration at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [13 favorites]

Oh Cleveland zeroed in the 9th? Hooray!

The 8th
posted by NoMich at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2016

Anybody else kind of wish they could just sleep until Tuesday?
posted by Justinian at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

Anybody else kind of wish they could just sleep until Tuesday?

Yes.
posted by restless_nomad at 8:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [40 favorites]

No. We've got calls to make and doors to knock on.
posted by zachlipton at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

Anybody else kind of wish they could just sleep until Tuesday?

Wednesday for me.
posted by Jalliah at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Holy shit. Delay of game in the World Series?!?! In the 9th, at 6-6!?!
I'm not blaming the writers. I'm blaming them who hired 'em.

(NE OH Native who doesn't care about about sports because he grew up in NE OH and cares a whole lot about the world we live in because see above

This fuckin year, man...)
posted by rp at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

This game is the perfect metaphor for the election. Blue team winning, red team pretty racist if you look at it close but somehow caught up at the end, and now it's delayed at the very end so you're pretty sure it's never going to result in a fucking winner already.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [22 favorites]

Blue team winning, red team pretty racist if you look at it close but somehow caught up at the end

Except the Blue team owned by a Trump-supporting asshat. Just sayin.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Public service announcement: baseball games and Presidential elections are independent events.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2016 [48 favorites]

But so many people try to prove otherwise! It must be true!
(finally going to finish Luke Cage now)
posted by rp at 9:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Public service announcement: baseball games and Presidential elections are independent events.

It's been a slow oppo night
posted by OHenryPacey at 9:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think WS games are correlated with Hollandaise sauce, though.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

Than, TPM. THAN.
For a site that produces relatively little original content and seems to have little inside sourcing due perhaps to its youthful reportorial staff, it really is remarkably shabbily edited. Not just typos, either.

Marshall himself is a smart analyst. But he doesn't have the resources to compete as a breaking news site and the strain shows.
posted by spitbull at 9:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

tonycpsu: You can have my magical thinking when you peel it out of my cold, dead brain.
posted by Coventry at 9:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Public service announcement: baseball games and Presidential elections are independent events.

If this election was a baseball game, the concession stands would have stopped serving alcohol two months ago.
posted by peeedro at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

So, is the FBI now basically acting as a promotional arm for a bullshit book by that Breitbart staffer now working for Trump?
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:12 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt.

Can we buy them for all the mods?
posted by zachlipton at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

Hey how fun would it be to tie the world series to the election?? If Cubs win then Hillary wins and if Cleveland wins then the other guy wins. My reasoning is only based on Hillary being a Cubs fan and the other team has a racist name just like the other guy is a racist.

This delay of game means the election gets dragged out past Thursday.
posted by numaner at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Reporting from Chicago. The tension and anxiety in this game may be one of the few things I've experienced in months that matches the stress of this god damn election.

Which is probably the sign of a fortunate life. I'll take it.
posted by jammer at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

What are the odds the game will still be going by Nov. 8? Nate Silver has it at 12%.
posted by Behemoth at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Hey how fun would it be to tie the world series to the election?? If Cubs win then Hillary wins and if Cleveland wins then the other guy wins.

It's bad enough they tie home field advantage to the All-Star game.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:16 PM on November 2, 2016

And these freaking uniforms! People - white at home, gray on the road.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

@kenrudin: In the last 8 times a World Series went to a Game 7 in a prez year, when the AL team wins, WH goes GOP; when the NL team wins, Dems do too.
posted by anastasiav at 9:22 PM on November 2, 2016 [14 favorites]

Now there's a meaningful stat for you.
posted by dersins at 9:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

GOP and designated hitter, smite them both!
posted by mahorn at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

So... go cubs?
posted by localhuman at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

I want more than Comey falling on his sword. It's very clear, to me at least, that shoving the ostensible leader of a sick organization off the lifeboat won't address the hungry cannibals left behind. I did have great difficulty reconciling the nature of a dude who would defend an ailing AG from Bush vultures and threaten to resign over unconstitutional expansions to intelligence powers with the guy who becomes Chaffetz's lapdog, but I think I get him, now. Comey is the type of guy who is a sponge for whatever organization he works for. He always wants to be the penultimate symbol of his institution. That he is going rogue and aggressively shoving back at the DOJ is quintessential FBI. In the last thread, someone pushed back at me for defining Comey as a rules lawyer, and rightfully so. He's not. He's just believes his own press.
posted by xyzzy at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

To be entirely fair, it's Cleveland baseball - the entire city is used to performative despair. They wouldn't know what to do if they win.

(my parents, who are staunch Dems who have been volunteering in WI, have gone completely radio silent and this was after all I got were responses of emoji in tears when I texted them when CLE was down 3. Right now I'm just hoping they're still alive.)
posted by ultranos at 9:27 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

The timing of that Hilary ad on the World Series was kinda perfect. Commercial in the top of the 10th, Cubs up 8-6. And the "Just One Wrong Move" commercial played to a big chunk of the electorate.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 9:28 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Why they're pushing out polls this late I have no idea but a new poll out of the University of Denver from a couple hours ago has the race tied in Colorado with third party candidates taking 15% of the vote (Clinton leads +1 in the two way). Its a live caller poll to both landlines and cellphones.
posted by Justinian at 9:43 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

The timing of that Hilary ad on the World Series was kinda perfect.

I saw! It was like the first time I saw one of her ads on TV after recently seeing it on Twitter! It's a sign! (TTTCS)
posted by numaner at 9:44 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

This freaking game. Stop playing with my emotions.
posted by vuron at 9:45 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Yesh and the world series too.
posted by Joey Michaels at 9:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [9 favorites]

approximately 90% of the people on my fb feed are complaining of breathing problems and/or possible TIAs. it's exactly like the election thread when a weird PA poll comes out
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

OK and there go the fireworks. I'm officially declaring this a good omen for the Dems.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Nice win by the Cubs. Apart from the players and their families, the team owners, and scads of gamblers, it doesn't matter at all who won. Unlike this election...
posted by morspin at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2016

"fuck fuck oh fuck we did it oh fuck" if you're listening to the international feed without Joe Buck, like I am.

so.
posted by holgate at 9:50 PM on November 2, 2016

HILLARY! GO CUBS!
posted by numaner at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Good Folks at JCPL worked overtime to let those fireworks rip.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

The probability of two events each with roughly a 15% chance of happening happening together is only 2.25%.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Skipping ahead a bit to post this so sorry if this has been mentioned already.

YCTAB, my twitter feed is mostly gamedevs/progs cause that's my job and that's why I'm there. Followed notch for a while, it became quite clear around the GG era that he's a sexist d***k , and I'm not surprised at all (although I didn't knew since I don't follow him anymore).

+ Cubs win World Series! Not sure if we have to be afraid, BTTF 2 was only wrong by one year it would seem. I'd do THE toast, but I feel it's not really proper.
posted by coust at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

Kris Bryant: "This Trumps everything."
posted by dirigibleman at 9:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

I really don't need Tuesday night to be as close as this. Really.
posted by maudlin at 9:52 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

Kris Bryant: "This Trumps everything."

I heard it, and immediately shivered. That word really has been ruined.
posted by numaner at 9:54 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Cubs pretty much stole all the long shot mojo for the remainder of this year. Trump should go ahead and concede tonight because no way is he replicating the Cubs.
posted by vuron at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

You could seeee how the Indians got so close... plate discipline. Terry Francona drilled that into the Sawx during their dominant run, and got the heavy hitters to really buy into it.

In the end, the team with the most talent won, and I like Theo as much as I like Terry. Awesome.
posted by Slap*Happy at 9:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

So at what point after the polls show that we have legalized mj would we be able to take advantage. Because I fully expect that to be confirmed at like noon at the latest, and it would come in somewhat handy for the rest of the day.
posted by susiswimmer at 10:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

*we* in this case being California.
posted by susiswimmer at 10:01 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Foer from Slate published something of a rebuttal piece on the Trump server that addresses some of the analyses posted on Twitter, the Intercept, and the New York Times. It's pretty even-handed but he stands by his reporting and says that all of the experts that he could reach who consulted on the original piece stood by their analyses.

Also, I hate baseball.
posted by xyzzy at 10:03 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

The Cubs haven't won the championship since before women got the right to vote. I know this is highly uncorrelated, but it's like that 102 y/o lady voting for Hillary. I just feel like it means something.
posted by numaner at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [11 favorites]

I'm not a sports guy, but I want to believe that teams with fucking racist names will be cursed until they change them.

My father, for as much of a super-progressive guy he is, still is a fan of The Washington Football Team to this day. He readily acknowledges the horrible name and mascot has to go, and even that football itself is a brutal game, and he doesn't argue that commercial sports in this country are out of control. He doesn't really argue my Chomsky-esque view that it's all bread-and-circuses, though I suspect he thinks I should lighten up. But he's kind enough not to tell me that. (He's still an old gentle hippie at heart.) It's through him that I've come to understand that that particular team in general doesn't really do well.

I understand Cleveland's baseball team doesn't have much of a history of doing really well, and that making it to the World Series is kind of a historical fluke. It sounds like they just lost. Aww, what a shame.

So I guess my theory/hope continues to stand. You keep being racist, you keep losing. Fuckheads.
posted by CommonSense at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [10 favorites]

California has like a dozen dumb and contradictory propositions on the ballot to have to wade through. Unfortunately they won't be able to call the pot proposition at 4:20.
posted by vuron at 10:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Baseball is OK.

Having an elite early voting firewall in Florida, is way better.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:09 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

They did it! 108 years later and the drought is finally over. Way to make history, @Cubs. #FlyTheW -H
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

Clark County is in Nevada
posted by hleehowon at 10:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

p sure there is a fanfare post for the ball game guys
posted by poffin boffin at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [8 favorites]

@kylegriffin1: Clinton watching the Cubs win
posted by airish at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

Well hopefully Hillary ends the 44-0 win streak for men in a little less than a week. Or should I do that as 43-1-0?
posted by vuron at 10:13 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Errr, well where ever it is. The tweet sounded good.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 10:16 PM on November 2, 2016

It's now very clear (when you combine these two reports with the conflicting stories I outlined yesterday) that lower-level agents in the NY FBI office(s) are warring with their higher-ups and Justice Department folks over trying to take down Clinton. No one in the legal community in their right mind is going to green-light a criminal investigation involving publicly discernible steps like subpoenas over a fucking STEVE BANNON book on Clinton right before the election. No solid investigation involves agents going back to the well multiple times to interview the same people (which means they have nothing) and continuing to butt up against, defy, and leak against their higher command. Not that it wasn't already, but it's clear from this and the Eric Garner case that there's a major culture issue in the NY office and a complete grudgefest between the agents on the ground there and everyone else they interact with.

My suspicion is this explains the lack of progress on Trump/Russia ties and the conflicting leaks about that investigation to the NYT. Like usual, the prospect of a woman gaining power has reduced the supposed "tough guys" to whiny babies, and now they're sulking because they didn't get to take down Clinton like they thought they would.

Comey should be out now, along with anyone at the FBI who leaked confidential information to the press about investigations.
posted by sallybrown at 10:21 PM on November 2, 2016 [46 favorites]

The MVP prize was handed out by Chevrolet, a company that didn't exist in 1908, like votes for women.
posted by holgate at 10:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

And that picture also fits the tips we heard late last week that Comey went public with the Weiner emails because of threats from the NY FBI agents that they would leak the info if he didn't.

It also explains why the warrant wasn't in hand for those emails - my guess is those in charge refused to take that step until their hands were forced by Comey's letter.
posted by sallybrown at 10:26 PM on November 2, 2016 [5 favorites]

The problem is that the FBI just acted like a shit accelerator. Accusations from the alt-right/vast right-wing conspiracy come in at one end, none of the usual steps that would happen in a meaningful successful investigation (subpoenas, interviews of all the relevant witnesses, grand jury, approval by prosecutors at key steps in the process, indictment), it gets leaked to the press, and it all comes out at hurtling speed in Trump's own TV ad (paid for by the RNC, naturally) as "now the FBI has launched a new investigation."

Meanwhile, if we're leaking investigations all over the place, where's the investigation into the Pam Bondi donation?
posted by zachlipton at 10:34 PM on November 2, 2016 [17 favorites]

Hey guys with the University of Denver poll and recent good early voting numbers out of Nevada I made a very plausible map for you that will help you sleep tonight. Sweet dreams!
posted by Justinian at 10:35 PM on November 2, 2016 [6 favorites]

And because this leaking is not just continuing but becoming more specific and more anti-Clinton (wonder if the leakers are emboldened by the fact that no one is getting in trouble??), I don't think this will be the end of it. You can already see in that Fox piece that a source blatantly lied about the Clinton investigation as if it's legitimate and on the path somewhere quick, when it's very obvious from the other reports that it's going nowhere.
posted by sallybrown at 10:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

NC is starting to look like Virginia in terms of Clinton building up a solid EV and polling lead.

Florida EV is looking very very favorable for Hillary as well. I'd like her to win Ohio and Iowa but the ubearable whiteness of being in both those states appears to be giving her issues. I really don't have much concerns about Colorado either tbh.
posted by vuron at 10:46 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Nate Silver is kind of losing his mind right now, but I enjoyed this salty prediction-rivalry tweet: Cleveland's still a 99% favorite in the Princeton Baseball Consortium model.

Think he's feeling a little burnt by the (DESERVED) PEC/Sam Wang love this year?
posted by sallybrown at 10:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Justinian: tonight you are not allowed to Justinian.

sallybrown: seriously, reassign those fucking FBI agents to filing duty. Or toilet-cleaning.

The weirdness is that in the best timeline you're going to have a not-quite-Trumpist congressional GOP that is being led by the nose by an actually-Trumpist FBI and an actually-Trumpist slavering base. And the worst outcome of that best timeline is that the US becomes something like Turkey.
posted by holgate at 10:47 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I made a very plausible map for you that will help you sleep tonight.

A good use of your time. Can you go to bed already?
posted by Atom Eyes at 10:51 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Just think: The last time the Cubs won, 108 years ago, America hadn't even elected a woman for President yet.
posted by ckape at 10:57 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Nate made the mistake of trying to be a pundit instead of a polls analysis guy and 538 built a very swingy model.

The fact that Trump basically needs to run the table on the states that are considered toss-ups currently and also steal one or more states where Clinton's current polling lead is pretty substantial make for a very very predictable (and boring) narrative.

Short of a total black swan event it's not really likely that there will be much movement in the polls either way so the high variance that we are seeing in the 538 polling aggregator methodology is starting to seem like a bit of an outlier. I figure by Saturday or Sunday he'll adjust the model they are using will move more and more into alignment with the other aggregators. He might still hedge his beats some but at a certain point variance from polling averages is going to get harder and harder to justify.
posted by vuron at 10:58 PM on November 2, 2016 [4 favorites]

Ugly, you need to stop coming in here to drop vague insinuations, period.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 10:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [30 favorites]

Ugly: Not believable at this time. Amidst the other leaks so far, there's approximately nothing. If anyone has such evidence, they've only got days to put up or shut up.

Tick, tock.
posted by Enturbulated at 10:59 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

Given how much has already leaked out of the FBI, if the FBI had any real honest-to-god, y'know, evidence of malfeasance, why wouldn't they have leaked that instead of a plate of nothing burgers?
posted by fragmede at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2016 [20 favorites]

now it's delayed at the very end so you're pretty sure it's never going to result in a fucking winner already

Since Election Day is the Tuesday following the first Monday in November it's later than usual this year because the month started on November 1.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2016

There is publicly available evidence that definitely disqualifies Trump from the role of President - but no rumors of him being investigated. So either he's not being investigated, or he is being investigated but the FBI are being fucking professionals about it like they should be.

I'd assume it was Clinton Derangement Syndrome, not misogyny, but Idunno if that's worth makin a distinction.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 11:02 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

W the hell!! Biden is on SVU talking about rape.
( Just turned on the recording.)

How did I miss that he was doing this? Did I miss this info in a thread? I swear I've read every post!
posted by Jalliah at 11:03 PM on November 2, 2016

Since these threads started thay'e been making me feel angry and bitter, not because of the state of American politics but because I do not live in New York and cannot go see Hamilton. On reading this thread's wiki (!) I discovered that

HAMILTON IS ON YOUTUBE!

So if you, like me, forgot that soundtracks are a thing that exists, get ye to your browser and restore some sanity. It lives up to the hype.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [18 favorites]

Oh wait. My bad this is really old. I just confused myself. I thought it was new. Sorry all. *stubs toe sheepishly*
posted by Jalliah at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

I have no doubt that there are people in the FBI who believe they have evidence that disqualifies Clinton for the job. There's a reasonable chance there are people in the FBI who believe they have evidence that disqualifies Trump for the job too.

The problem is that law enforcement is not supposed to be influencing elections by leaking accusations to the press. They're supposed to build cases with evidence and bring them through the justice system. And if they can't do that, they're supposed to shut the hell up. Because to act in any other way is to have an extrajudicial government operation that thinks it knows better than anyone else. We had that already, it was called the FBI under J. Edgar Hoover, and it was widely considered a model for what we're looking to avoid in a law enforcement agency.

If FBI agents had a good-faith basis to believe they had a strong legitimate accusation blocked for political purposes, surely there should be some indication that they went to the IG to report that interference? Or to Congress, where there's no shortage of Republicans who would be happy to hold hearings on both the original case and the alleged cover-up? Or they could put up and actually tell someone what evidence they have? But they didn't do any of those things. They made vague anonymous accusations to the press less than a week before the election.
posted by zachlipton at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [50 favorites]

Lol, Biden's guest appearance on SVU was a few weeks ago, so it must be a repeat.
posted by xyzzy at 11:05 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I figure by Saturday or Sunday he'll adjust the model they are using will move more and more into alignment with the other aggregators.

I would actually be truly shocked if Silver did this; it would essentially destroy his reputation. (I realize his rep is pretty tarnished ((hah hah get it tarnish? silver?)) hereabout but the media still eats him up) I expect he'll ride his model all the way through the election. Any adjustments will come after the 8th.
posted by Justinian at 11:06 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

... it's later than usual this year because the month started on November 1.

I do believe that is the case most years.
posted by Bovine Love at 11:08 PM on November 2, 2016 [68 favorites]

Yes, my birthday is Nov 1, and it has started the month for my whole life. I am, however, willing to concede that perhaps it was different before my time.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:10 PM on November 2, 2016 [16 favorites]

it's later than usual this year because November 1 was a Tuesday

FIXED
THAT
FOR
EVERYBODY
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:11 PM on November 2, 2016 [27 favorites]

Well, the PEC is currently reporting Clinton's win probability as "random drift 98%, Bayesian 100%". Whew! Glad that's over.
posted by The Tensor at 11:14 PM on November 2, 2016 [12 favorites]

If FBI agents had a good-faith basis to believe they had a strong legitimate accusation blocked for political purposes, surely there should be some indication that they went to the IG to report that interference?

Just in case others aren't aware, I believe zachlipton is referring to the Inspector General of the DOJ, which is something like Internal Affairs.
posted by xyzzy at 11:17 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

the R party was taken over by a total crank

In 1980? That was really the beginning.

I'd point more to the Southern Strategy, which I think helped incentivize the stupidity, but you're not wrong. Here in Aus we've concluded that Reagan is perhaps best described by our favourite national 4-letter word.
posted by iffthen at 11:18 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

OK, so the only problem with watching sports on Tivo is the risk that the game runs too long even if you add an hour. And then you miss the end of Game 7 of the World Series.

But what a great game! Props to the Indians for not folding when they were down 5-1 and props to the Cubs for not folding when they blew their lead. I love this type of baseball game: lots of scoring, aggressive base running, plays at the plate.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Guys, this is huge!
@RT_com: BREAKING: Russian govt is not the source for #WikiLeaks' #Clinton emails - RT's exclusive interview with #Assange
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:19 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Short of a total black swan event

Things that only happen every 108 years?

I'm a bad person
posted by fullerine at 11:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

RT reports Assange clearing Russia; what could go wrong? Just like how Nixon told us he wasn't a crook.
posted by zachlipton at 11:24 PM on November 2, 2016 [7 favorites]

Guys, this is huge!
@RT_com: BREAKING: Russian govt is not the source for #WikiLeaks' #Clinton emails - RT's exclusive interview with #Assange

lol. I wonder who he implies did it.
posted by Jalliah at 11:25 PM on November 2, 2016 [1 favorite]

I just took this screenshot at the bottom of the RT article. What a great comment section they run.
posted by zachlipton at 11:29 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Oh wait. I think I get it. Let me guess. People are going to imply that is was US intelligence leaking the emails right?
posted by Jalliah at 11:30 PM on November 2, 2016

RT reports Assange clearing Russia;

They're playing to the choir. It's enough for Limbaugh/Hannity to rant about for a few hours. It's yet more supporting evidence of their cognitive framing, "Hillary Clinton is The Devil"
posted by mikelieman at 11:32 PM on November 2, 2016

They're playing to the choir. It's enough for Limbaugh/Hannity to rant about for a few hours. It's yet more supporting evidence of their cognitive framing, "Hillary Clinton is The Devil"

Well putting on my Putin hat and pretending I was him: Since it looks like there is disarry in the FBI with rogue group leaking and the narrative that some are trying to push that they know how bad Hillary really is and are trying to save the country, I would add fuel to the fire. I would suggest that it was rogue intelligence who have the good of the country in mind who hacked the emails and leaked them. And of course Clinton (and the dems) is covering it up by blaming the Russia and Trump. It's all part of her evil plan etc etc.

He is doing what he can to help Trump.
posted by Jalliah at 11:37 PM on November 2, 2016 [3 favorites]

Several deleted. As always, questions/discussion of moderation belong in the contact form or Metatalk.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:38 PM on November 2, 2016 [2 favorites]

But then who knows, it's 2016, Assange could just come right out of left field and blame China.
posted by Jalliah at 11:38 PM on November 2, 2016

An in-depth investigation by Russia has cleared Russia of any wrongdoing!
posted by Justinian at 11:42 PM on November 2, 2016 [28 favorites]

latex: thanks for that link.
posted by StrawberryPie at 11:44 PM on November 2, 2016

Case closed, then. Assange never lies. He certainly never lied about a Clinton strategist calling for his assassination on Fox News. (It wasn't a Clinton strategist.) He definitely didn't accuse Bill Maher of making a $1 million HRC PAC donation after "checking his files." (Maher donated that amount to Obama's SuperPAC and got in trouble with the FEC for giving too much money to Bernie Sanders.) He never stated that all credit card numbers and other personal data are redacted prior to leaks. (They aren't.) And we should definitely believe him when he says that he has no problem with Hillary Clinton and that all of his statements about Hillary being a demon ready to put a noose around our necks are misquotes or misunderstandings. (They aren't.)
posted by xyzzy at 12:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

so uh last thread I was all "I see no reason for anyone to vote for Evan McMullin," but okay I was dumb there is a reason to vote for Evan McMullin: Justinian's map.

Egg's got a shitty platform, but his goofy reason for running actually is pretty sound: a 269 Clinton 269 Trump result is strictly worse than a 269 Trump 263 Clinton 6 McMullin result. There's a chance that the House might put McMullin in by virtue of being neither Clinton nor Trump, but if they had to choose between just Clinton-Trump the Republicans would put Trump in without hesitation.

Let it be known: if I lived in Utah, and if the polls got tighter, this commie would vote for an independent republican.

Dang though, I bet Romney would be pissed if it turned out McMullin was the White Horse. All "Egg?! The prophecy was about EGG?!?"
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

So if you, like me, forgot that soundtracks are a thing that exists, get ye to your browser and restore some sanity. It lives up to the hype.

I used to think that I was cool because my wife got us tickets to see hamilton with the original cast, but then my step-sister started liveblogging the game from Wrigley Field tonight. This election season has been fraught.
posted by stet at 12:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

ugh I'm dumb. Justinian's map isn't the one where Egg makes sense: we'd need a map that was 275 Trump 263 Clinton. In that case, Utah voting for Egg instead of Clinton would be good.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump adviser reveals how Assange ally warned him about leaked Clinton emails
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

it's just going to be tearing garments and ululating at the sky from now until November 9th, isn't it.
posted by angrycat at 12:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

a 269 Clinton 269 Trump result

The fact that the presidency could conceivably be decided by Congress voting, one vote per state is just like, what the actual fuck on so many levels. What would even happen? How many reps would go for Trump vs. McMuffin? Could Democrats stall and obstruct and run out the clock until January, at which point Kaine would become President by default? I have so many questions.
posted by en forme de poire at 12:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I don't think there's a way for the Democrats to stall for Kaine, but IIUC, the new, incoming House is the one that votes, which means those down-ballot races are more important than ever if we see a 269 v. 269 EV result.
posted by fragmede at 1:03 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I don't know who would care enough to early vote for Clinton and also be so upset by the Comey letter that they would want to switch to Trump.

I keep wondering if there's some nugget of brilliance there. Like, maybe Trump wants to gum up the works on election day? But pre-poll voting favours Clinton, so he's basically sabotaging his own voters in order to gain a speculative advantage from vote-switchers. Argh, he's inside my head now.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

> I don't think there's a way for the Democrats to stall for Kaine, but IIUC, the new, incoming House is the one that votes, which means those down-ballot races are more important than ever if we see a 269 v. 269 EV result.
posted by fragmede at 1:03 AM on November 3 [+] [!]

BUT they vote as state delegations, and I believe the Republicans have a lock on having a majority of the house delegations from a greater total number of states than the Democrats will.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 1:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Remember Trump's Razor.

The reason he's suggesting changing votes is not to gum up the works or anything considered, it's some dumb shit he made up off the cuff. Or, taking it more literally, he accidentally voted for Hillary.
posted by Trifling at 1:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [52 favorites]

Youtube's suggested video in the sidebar to reach out to people that liked the ad.
posted by sebastienbailard at 1:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

So, it's 2am and I'm still awake reading another election thread even though I have to be up in a few hours to go back to work, where I am largely surrounded by Trump supporters, uninformed loud mouths, and apathetic non-voters. I'm just so tired- tired of biting my tongue, of trying to have calm rational discussions that end with people yelling at me and calling me names, of outwardly ignoring comments while screaming on the inside.

These threads, and the members of this community, have been such a wonderful resource for me. Even when we are discussing terrible things, or the polls are down, or the JCPL is high...we are in it together and that means the world to me. I've learned more from these threads, the intelligent coversation, the spirited debates, the links to hilarity and horror, than I have from any other single source.

So thank you. Thank you, mods, for keeping us in line. Thank you to those who have been on the ground canvassing or making calls, for making a real difference. And thank you to everyone who has participated, even the lurkers, for making me feel surrounded by support and strength. This is a remarkable place, ya' know?
posted by pupperduck at 2:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [105 favorites]

Youtube's suggested video yt in the sidebar to reach out to people that liked the ad.

the mud represents the election and the twink represents america
posted by en forme de poire at 2:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

(P.S. I've seen just about everything else in an election thread so niche softcore shouldn't have really surprised me, but for people who are reading this at work tomorrow, that vid is NSFW)
posted by en forme de poire at 2:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I... assumed something was going to happen in the video. Like... an alligator would show up or...? But no it was just him and the mud. So much... him.
posted by Justinian at 3:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I confess to skimming a bit, and did not think to check for a "I'm Donald Trump, and I approve this message" bit at the end.
posted by sebastienbailard at 3:30 AM on November 3, 2016

This may be silliness but I have got to say, with the amount of Trump support I'm seeing here I would not be shocked if Connecticut goes red. I shouldn't say just because Trump support but also because of the number of people I meet that also keep saying "we're gonna be blue so it doesn't matter" and/or "I don't like Clinton so I'm gonna vote 3rd party". I know what the polls say but I just can't shake the horrible feeling, especially with the anti-dem push because our governor has such a bad reputation (I'm not happy with him either).
posted by JakeEXTREME at 4:04 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

he accidentally voted for Hillary

haha! unfortunately NY doesn't have early voting because that would be awesome.
posted by zutalors! at 4:22 AM on November 3, 2016

he accidentally voted for Hillary

Hoho, or someone in his family claimed they did.

Another thing that kept going round in my head after this particular twist of him suggesting changing votes was, how does the Donald have any experience with buyer's remorse? I wouldn't have expected him to know what that is.
posted by Namlit at 4:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

buyer's remorse?

I felt like he thought his crowd wouldn't understand that term and he had to define it for them.
posted by zutalors! at 4:30 AM on November 3, 2016

Connecticut?
posted by spitbull at 4:31 AM on November 3, 2016

It's too early to Connectthedots. It ain't Connecticut-and-dried yet.
posted by Namlit at 4:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I dunno anecdotal evidence doesn't mean much. I know people in the primary who were sure Bernie would win NY and CA in a landslide because everyone they knew was for Bernie and they saw Bernie signs everywhere.
posted by zutalors! at 4:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

Just a little bit of new political chaos from the UK - a court has just ruled that the Government can't trigger Brexit without getting the approval of Parliament, because of deep constitutional issues over sovereignty and the right of the Government to revoke laws without Parliament (It can't but Brexit would). This now goes to our own Supreme Court which has eleven on the bench and is basically non-partisan, but the legal arguments from the lower court seem pretty cut and dried to me.

Parliament is strongly non-Brexit, and the referendum is non-binding on it. My money, if the UK Supreme Court concurs with this judgement, would be on a spring election that re-ran the Brexit issue.

Which would be its own special brand of insane. So, if Mr Trump brings back his Mr Brexit line, remind everyone about the batshit madness that comes with.
posted by Devonian at 4:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [60 favorites]

(P.S. I've seen just about everything else in an election thread so niche softcore shouldn't have really surprised me, but for people who are reading this at work tomorrow, that vid is NSFW)

Only watched it for a few seconds, but I told myself that it represented Milo Y. being swallowed by quicksand, and found it oddly satisfying in that interpretation.
posted by Halloween Jack at 4:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Random request: I seem to recall in one of the election threads link to a story or research showing that when Democrats win with larger margins, they govern more from the left than the center. It seems like an obvious statement but it's still something I'd like to be able to back up with a friend in a non-swing state who is skeptical about voting for Clinton. Does anyone know where the story or research lives?
posted by mostly vowels at 4:58 AM on November 3, 2016

guys

the polls

seriously my normally cautious optimism is being replaced with near panic

help
posted by kyrademon at 5:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Look at the HuffPo Pollster and ignore the rest. See that nice big healthy Clinton lead? Concentrate on that, and breathe.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:02 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Only watched it for a few seconds, but I told myself that it represented Milo Y. being swallowed by quicksand, and found it oddly satisfying in that interpretation.

I figured it was broadly targeting the coveted {twink, Trump, mining-and-resource-extraction} advertising markets. My wife found the jerky handycam stuff at the beginning quite off-putting.
posted by sebastienbailard at 5:07 AM on November 3, 2016

So I'm a Canadian who will be staying in the States on business during the election:

AMERICANS, WHAT DO I DO?! I'M SO EXCITED I'M VIBRATING!
posted by Dressed to Kill at 5:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

If this tweet is right, Clinton is leading a bunch of polls
posted by drezdn at 5:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I do not live in New York and cannot go see Hamilton.

I made a pilgrimage back to the homeland to see LMM during the last week of his run, a birthday surprise for my best girl and all... but, yeah. Worth it. Very worth it.

The last time a play made me say "wow" when the lights came up was... heck, maybe JCM's original Hedwig?
posted by rokusan at 5:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

So at what point after the polls show that we have legalized mj would we be able to take advantage.

If it's like the other states that have already legalized, maybe a year or so while they get the legal/govt/licensing apparatus in place, and a few months of hiccups thereafter.

Not the answer you wanted, I am sure. Wheels turn slowly.
posted by rokusan at 5:25 AM on November 3, 2016

Watching Kellyanne Conway on CNN I gotta admire her sheer ability to gaslight the nation.

I otherwise completely despite her.

Also, why didn't Caroline Fayard just turn to David Duke and say "what the hell is wrong with you?"
posted by Talez at 5:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

the polls

seriously my normally cautious optimism is being replaced with near panic

If a source of information can't help you make better decisions and frequently causes you distress, it might make sense to put it aside for a while.
posted by Coventry at 5:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

AMERICANS, WHAT DO I DO?!

Culturally, the answer to this depends so very much on where you're going that it's dawning on me that you can't really speak of the US as a single place in any meaningful sense.

If you want to celebrate the election itself, find the local Democratic Party's location for their watch party, and go hang. If you're single, the sheer explosion resulting from a Clinton victory pretty much guarantees that at least 75% of the people in that room are going to have sex with each other, so you get two good memories out of one night.

Otherwise most of my answers will revolve around food. Don't get barbecue in any state where there aren't any waitresses who might call you "hon".
posted by middleclasstool at 5:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

Oh god, Clinton is still better but I am Very Irritated at her campaign trying to turn up the panic. I just got pushed an ad saying "Trump has 259 EVs per polls", and I'm like, no, that is bullshit, I follow this closer than most and literally no one has him at a 259 EV output, stop panicking me to get money Clinton campaign.
posted by corb at 5:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

Some fresh bullshit from your trusty FBI: Bret Baier: FBI Sources Believe Clinton Foundation Case Moving Towards "Likely an Indictment" claims that:

1. The Clinton Foundation investigation is far more expansive than anybody has reported so far and has been going on for more than a year.

2. The laptops of Clinton aides Cherryl Mills and Heather Samuelson have not been destroyed, and agents are currently combing through them. The investigation has interviewed several people twice, and plans to interview some for a third time.

3. Agents have found emails believed to have originated on Hillary Clinton's secret server on Anthony Weiner's laptop. They say the emails are not duplicates and could potentially be classified in nature.

4. Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

5. FBI sources say with 99% accuracy that Hillary Clinton's server has been hacked by at least five foreign intelligence agencies, and that information had been taken from it.

And by "'barring some obstruction in some way' from the Justice Department," they mean "people telling me 'a Steve Bannon book with no other evidence is not strong enough support for an indictment, you idiots.'"
posted by sallybrown at 5:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

Watching Kellyanne Conway on CNN I gotta admire her sheer ability to gaslight the nation.

I fully expect that the title for her post-election tell-all memoir will be I Didn't Say That and You Didn't Read This.
posted by hangashore at 5:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

Luckily they aren't the ones that are supposed to make the call as to whether the evidence they're putting forth is enough to support an indictment or not, so "likely" here doesn't really mean anything unless the Justice Department has already indicated there's sufficient evidence.
posted by Karaage at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Corb, 538 snake has him at 266.
posted by Talez at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016

I was in the unusual position of having to reassure my therapist that things aren't that bad. She lives in a more conservative part of Massachusetts and has seen a bunch of Trumppence signs and noticed that "Clinton By 1" was trending on social media. I gave her the same advice I've seen others offer here: Hillary has had a steady six-point lead for the past few months; follow PEC, which is less click-baity than Nate Silver; volunteer if you can; and VOTE.

I didn't tell her to sign up for MetaFilter, because that would be weird. "I've noticed that every time Joe Biden puts on his sunglasses, you feel the need to tell people your mother has a crush on him. Why is that?"
posted by pxe2000 at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

Look at the HuffPo Pollster and ignore the rest. See that nice big healthy Clinton lead? Concentrate on that, and breathe.

I know this is meant to be helpful, but only looking at the one poll with good news is how Romney & Friends "knew" they had it in the bag. I'm concerned that's MeFi is starting to build its own bubble and not looking at the reality of what has happened to the race since we want to hold on to that feeling we had when Clinton had a clear lead. She doesn't anymore. And the chances of retaking the Senate are dire. We can ignore it for our mental health, but we shouldn't tell ourselves comforting lies.
posted by tzikeh at 5:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

HuffPo is a poll aggregator, tzikeh.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

mostly vowels I seem to recall in one of the election threads link to a story or research showing that when Democrats win with larger margins, they govern more from the left than the center.

Why turnout matters, even in true-blue districts: Large margins of victory make politicians more responsive to progressive goals
posted by chris24 at 5:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Corb, 538 snake has him at 266.

242 now, so breathe. Also McMullin is now on the EV board!
posted by corb at 5:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

> "I just got pushed an ad saying 'Trump has 259 EVs per polls', and I'm like, no, that is bullshit, I follow this closer than most and literally no one has him at a 259 EV output, stop panicking me to get money Clinton campaign."

538 Polls Plus has him at 246 (243 Polls Only), with no recent change to the general upward trend. RCP puts him at 265 with no tossup states.
posted by kyrademon at 5:44 AM on November 3, 2016

4. Sources within the FBI have told him that an indictment is "likely" in the case of pay-for-play at the Clinton Foundation, "barring some obstruction in some way" from the Justice Department.

This is just more toilet-bowl spin from a GOP that is getting flushed. What it really tells us is that the FBI isn't doing much investigating, because apparently they're all busy calling their favorite reporters. And it tells us that Comey has lost control of his institution. He is not long for his job.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 5:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

I will also note that a number of the FBI leak articles mention the FBI agents using Wikileaks documents to build their case. It seems, um...unlikely...that documents stolen by Russia as part of a plot to hack our election that is currently also being investigated by the FBI are going to be used in any legitimate way in handing down an indictment or bringing a legal case.

Forgot my last thought - so this should be a clue about the intelligence, motivations, truthfulness, and in-the-know-ness of the leakers (as well as those in the press who are blithely reporting it).
posted by sallybrown at 5:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I stay calm by only checking electoral-vote.com, which currently has T at 221 and Hillary at 317.
posted by mothershock at 5:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed. The Clinton hearings leading up to his impeachment were truly a low point in American democracy - and while I get that historically they were not so unprecedented (from the result, maybe yes, but the viciousness and blatant falsity, pretty par for the course.) What I sincerely hope, though is that these assholes (and by that I mean anyone like Starr or Comey, who try to make hay out of dirt.

There's a disconnect there - like with the 'Benghazi Conspiracy' Where there could very well be something illegal happening but there's so much shouting and finger pointing that the real issue, the real point of it gets lost. Mostly, though, the lying is fucking tiring.

I also want Anthony Weiner to experience sufficient remorse that he decides to change his name and go join a monastery and is never heard from again. Even if the engine of that remorse is not merely emotional in nature but physical. Like, I'll come back to the States to give him a lift.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

This is my favorite Cubs reaction shot.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 5:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

@adr (celebrity librarian who emigrated from the USA to Canada):
americans who are all like "I wanna move to Canada" you dudes realize you can only get like 2, maybe 3 different kinds of oreos here, max
posted by Wordshore at 5:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

Sorry, hit post too soon -
on edit,

If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed. The Clinton hearings leading up to his impeachment were truly a low point in American democracy - and while I get that historically they were not so unprecedented (from the result, maybe yes, but the viciousness and blatant falsity, pretty par for the course), I really hoped I wouldn't have to watch that kind of bullshit again. What I sincerely hope is that these assholes (and by that I mean anyone like Starr or Comey, who try to make hay out of dirt) get bitched slapped into next week, or next month - which sufficient vigor that everyone takes a step back and reconsiders before trying to follow in their footsteps.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Sure - but voters just hear "indictment."

From Fox News. People who are watching Fox News wouldn't vote for Clinton if she could guarantee them a shiny new unicorn in every driveway.
posted by uncleozzy at 5:51 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

Relax y'all and look forward to saying Madame President for the next 4 years at least. This will be confirmed by 11pm Tuesday, so just take it easy.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:51 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

So, why are the poll aggregators getting such different results from the same information?

Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton 317 / Trump 221
Electoral Vote: Clinton 317 / Trump 221
Huffington Post: Clinton 302 / Tossup 72 / Trump 164
538: Clinton 292 / Trump 245
RCP: Clinton 273 / Trump 265

That's an enormous spread.
posted by kyrademon at 5:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Scott Lemieux at Lawyers, Guns and Money: The Clinton Rules and the Media’s Ghastly Failure to Inform the Public

[W]e should emphasize the media’s agency here. Comey’s letter was an appalling and indefensible partisan intervention into the election. But if it matters, it’s because the media failed to cover it accurately (as a scandal about Comey’s violation of longstanding procedures to provide no information worded in a way to allow the implication that Hillary Clinton is guilty of something) rather than inaccurately (as a Hillary Clinton scandal) or with meta-coverage that does Comey’s dirty work (did this letter damage Clinton?)

(The Yglesias piece Lemieux linked to is also worth reading, as it points out what a desperate fishing expedition both the "email scandals" and the obsession over Bill Clinton's penis were products of.)
posted by Gelatin at 5:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed.

Be prepared with Chaffetz at the helm. House Republicans are already preparing for ‘years’ of investigations of Clinton.
posted by Karaage at 6:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

On this greatest, most miraculous of mornings, I am going out for celebratory Eggs Benedict, and god help the fool who tries to stop me.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

New Trumpsign spotted on my way to work this morning:

Such economic anxiety. Very working class. Wow. Much downtrodden masses. (This is an 8 bedroom, 5 bathroom $2mil+ home situated adjacent to a university campus. Truly the salt of the earth, American heartland, etc...)

So, to recap the Trump displays I have seen around town: This one, 2 in my neighborhood which is solidly non-downtrodden working class (i.e., people with well paying blue color or first responder jobs) and middle class, and racially integrated which must be super awkward for those peoples' black neighbors, and a couple on multi-unit and retail buildings that were clearly placed there by the landlord (same landlord owns both buildings) because they are self-made vinyl banners affixed to the sides of the buildings. Putting that together with the new Trump table outside the library manned exclusively by LAX-bro stereotypes, I'm really not feeling the "feel the pain of the Trump supporters and their woeful plight" meme right now.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [26 favorites]

Kyrademon: one thing I've seen about 538's model is that it ties uncertainty in one state's polling to the results in other states, in a way that is considered unusual. Can't say about the others. But without the three closest states (NC FL NV), Clinton is at 273, and with them she is at 323, so that spread makes perfect sense to me.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

americans who are all like "I wanna move to Canada" you dudes realize you can only get like 2, maybe 3 different kinds of oreos here, max

that's twice or thrice the kinds of Oreos they have here in France!!
don't get me started on Tex-Mex

More on-topic: reportage over here is as freaking dismal as in the US, there are still article titles with "we explain how the latest brouhaha about Clinton emails may affect her campaign" and I keep having to tell colleagues THEY'RE WEINER'S EMAILS FFS and I'm starting to get all "we [French] have a presidential election coming up in a few months and the media are behaving like shit, this does not bode well" aaaand they're like "we're not the US lol" so I basically STFU now and keep giving money to the Clinton campaign.

I get to go through this again as soon as the 8th is passed. good lord. Keep in mind, Clinton will have to also work with whichever president we elect here. A few months after that, Germany holds its federal elections.
posted by fraula at 6:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Just had an egg white and turkey sausage sammich from Panera, not quite an Egg McMuffin but I don't feel quite as queasy afterward either. Also the McDs near my office is the notorious Heroin Happy Meal one so I tend to stay out of it.
posted by octothorpe at 6:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

538 also has consecutive posts on the site's front page entitled "Most Voters Haven't Changed Their Minds All Year" and "Trump's Chance Of Victory Has Doubled In The Last Two Weeks", which yes those two positions can be reconciled, but in order to do so you have to be positing a strangely specific set of unlikely circumstances. I.e they're hedging.
posted by penduluum at 6:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

So, after 108 years, down 3-1 in the series, behind in the game, in extra innings, after a rain delay, the Cubs finally win the World Series? And people took this as a good sign for Clinton? I mean, maybe, but the ridiculousness of that on top of all the other ridiculousness of the year has me starting to wonder how President McMullin will actually govern. It's just so crazy it's starting to feel almost inevitable given all else that's happened.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

New Trumpsign spotted on my way to work this morning

For the love of god, walk without rhythm.
posted by tocts at 6:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [67 favorites]

Slate: Hillary Clinton’s Firewall Appears to Be Holding
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

That's an enormous spread.

That's not an enormous spread. That's Florida and North Carolina, the two hardest-to-predict states.
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

There's no way the House picks freaking McMullin if it came down to that. What reason would they have? They'd be pissing off literally 95% of American voters, and we know by now that those guys ONLY care about keeping their jobs.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

For the love of god, walk without rhythm.

Nah, I've got my Maker hooks ready. Bring it on.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [24 favorites]

In a nutshell polls agree it's close in a lot of states and a clear Clinton lead in others. In order for DJT to win he has to win both. In order for HEC to win she has to just win the states she's supposed to be ahead in. Plus there's the possibility she like Obama in 12 is underpolling in which case: landslide.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

So, after 108 years, down 3-1 in the series, behind in the game, in extra innings, after a rain delay, the Cubs finally win the World Series? And people took this as a good sign for Clinton?

I take it as no sign for Clinton. Humans are probably biologically predisposed to looks for signs and portents and shit, but sportsball and elections aren't actually related.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Who knows? No matter what happens at that point there is going to be a firestorm, so it might be best to try and hide behind a unknown rather than put either super-destructo-Donnie or the hated Hillary in office. If it we'd somehow go that completely nuts as a nation and end up with states deciding rather than the vote, there just aren't any sane options left.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:23 AM on November 3, 2016

"Don't fret or wet, go pet a pet."
-Abraham Lincoln
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I take it as no sign for Clinton. Humans are probably biologically predisposed to looks for signs and portents and shit, but sportsball and elections aren't actually related.

Heh. Yes, I too believed that before 2016.

And still do really, but I'm willing to at least listen for those magical voices now.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

RE: Cubs/Indians

@nanaze
One racist cartoon down, one to go.
posted by chris24 at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]

The Trump Apocalypse Might Not Come, But the Republican One Will
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

So, after 108 years, down 3-1 in the series, behind in the game, in extra innings, after a rain delay, the Cubs finally win the World Series? And people took this as a good sign for Clinton?

You have to admit the symbolism is a little on the nose for her career and this election cycle. (The rain delay was Obama...)
posted by Andrhia at 6:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

The Cubs also won a MLB-best 103 games this year, were denied home field advantage by way of the (stupid) All-Star Game rule, and won the series by doing the things they did during the regular season. I think there are some positive similarities between their season and the Clinton campaign.
posted by strange chain at 6:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [26 favorites]

The Cubs never trailed in that game.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

So, the House has voted for President twice.
1800, you will have heard of. The Dem-Reps screwed up and voted in a tie under the old system. Eventually the Federalists quit gumming up the works, and the actual Presidential candidate won.
In 1824, the Dem-Reps had been the only party in power for so long, the one-party system was de facto a no-party system. Neither Adams nor Jackson were the official nominee, but then that guy had a stroke after Election Day. Clay finished fourth, so he was out, and teamed up with Adams to give him the win.
Andrew Jackson was so pissed off he went out and founded his own party, with a national convention that would bring the whole party together to actually decide who the candidate would be.
We have never had an election in the modern two-party system go to the House. If this one did, it'd be a test of whether the GOP is really cracking up or not.
The new House votes by state. You need 26 states to win, and they will keep voting until there is one. If no winner by January 20, the new Senate (+ Biden), which elects the VP, would be picking an acting president, only until the House picks someone.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 6:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Cubs lead wire to wire and the only reason the Indians came back is because of errors. 🤔
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Now that we see the theme of 2016 is in fact "good triumphs over evil," I'm coming out of the closet as a Blue Texas Truther. Hillz with 400+, motherfuckers. Come at me.

(No but really, no way the likely voter screens are catching all the terrified and pissed off first time voters, or all the terrified and pissed off Latinx. I do expect them.)
posted by schadenfrau at 6:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

Donald Trump is Antichrist v. 0.93, the beta test.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Anyway there is no such things as signs. The basilisk will strike whenever it pleases.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

The Cubs never trailed in that game.

Ah, good, I was misinformed.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:30 AM on November 3, 2016

Americans - if you need an absorbing sporting distraction from the election, especially now the Cubs have wrapped things up, then look towards your national side for something even more nail-biting than the baseball World Series or the election. It's nearing the climax of the Division Four series being held in Los Angeles, and there's a three way tie at the top between Oman, Denmark and the USA. After the the USA started on a winning run, only losing for the first time against Denmark, it's going down to the wire. Tomorrow, the USA play Jersey and hoping that goes well, they'll be into the final on Friday. Tense times.
posted by Wordshore at 6:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Also the Cubs are owned by a staunch Hillary supporter. IF SIGNS EXIST THIS IS A GOOD 1 DO NOT @ ME
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I take it as no sign for Clinton. Humans are probably biologically predisposed to looks for signs and portents and shit, but sportsball and elections aren't actually related.

Not probably, we are predisposed to look for patterns and assign meaning to events. It's basic pattern recognition and is a basic cognitive function that is necessary for basic survival. Like a lot of thinks it has it's negative side and can lead to types of magical thinking.
posted by Jalliah at 6:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Donald Trump is Antichrist v. 0.93, the beta test.

Why did it have to be an open beta?
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

That's brilliant. Beta Test Antichrist is my new band name.
posted by whuppy at 6:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

The Cubs are owned

Errr, RUN not owned. They're owned by lizards as all sports teams are.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

Also, signs can be self-fulfilling prophecies. Good omens lead to more effort higher turnout. Positivity wins.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Also the Cubs are owned by a staunch Hillary supporter. IF SIGNS EXIST THIS IS A GOOD 1 DO NOT @ ME

Cubs are GMed by a Hillary supporter, but owned by staunch Republicans who Trump threatened earlier this year.

@realDonaldTrump
I hear the Rickets family, who own the Chicago Cubs, are secretly spending $'s against me. They better be careful, they have a lot to hide!

He also criticized how they were run:

@KFILE
Donald Trump said the Chicago Cubs were a poorly run baseball team in March: [image]
posted by chris24 at 6:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

The Cubs versus Sharks ballgame is probably a good omen.
posted by sebastienbailard at 6:40 AM on November 3, 2016

If Clinton's presidency turns into the rabid shit-show of frothing hatred that W.J Clinton's was, I am going to be so, so disappointed.

You're going to be disappointed then. The House will be Republican, that's all but a mathematical certainty, and it will therefore spend the next four years attacking Clinton like a rabid wolverine, squandering tens of millions on ~~witch hunts~~ "investigations", and generally doing nothing but indulging in the most far right Clinton Derangement Syndrome temper tantrums that it can manage.

If Clinton can't get a functional majority in the Senate it will play right along with the House and probably not merely flat out refuse to confirm any of her Supreme Court appointments, but also likely simply refuse to confirm **ANY** Clinton appointments, including her own Cabinet. If she does get a majority she'd better railroad her Cabinet picks and urge Ginsberg to retire ASAP because come 2018 the Senate is all but guaranteed to flip back to the Republicans at which point it will join the House in utter screaming frothing at the mouth rabid attacks on Clinton and refusing to do absolutely anything.

My hope rests on a Democratic Senate, a very quick set of Supreme Court confirmations followed by the Supremes ruling gerrymandering to be unconstitutional in time for hte 2020 elections to end the Republican hold on the House.

Because the next four years are going to be nothing but one long, continuous, never ending, Republican temper tantrum with Clinton exerting every erg of political energy and will she can muster merely to hold the status quo.

And that's the best case scenario.
posted by sotonohito at 6:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [61 favorites]

"Brazile, who didn’t respond Monday to a request for comment, said after WikiLeaks posted the earlier e-mail that she never had access to debate questions and wouldn’t have shared them if she did. She suggested the WikiLeaks documents may have been “misinformation.” The Clinton campaign has said the Russian government hacked the e..."

What a liar. I understand leaking questions is a small thing compared to other Clinton crimes. Fine, she lost quite a few votes which is fine because that won't matter what matters is the nightmare she will face daily as president.
Good luck hilly, because your going to need it.
posted by clavdivs at 6:42 AM on November 3, 2016

Tomorrow, the USA play Jersey and hoping that goes well, they'll be into the final on Friday. Tense times.

The USA's best association football players are facing off against the island of Jersey?

I suspect it will be a close game.
posted by ocschwar at 6:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Florida Man Steve Schale with an FL early-voting update

Two or three threads ago, someone mentioned the potential impact of Puerto Rican voters in Florida. Steve agrees:

It is obvious, but still important to stress, that the reason Puerto Ricans are changing the politics so fast, is unlike all other Hispanic migrants to Florida, they can vote on day one as US Citizens, so their growth has an acute impact on politics. Orange County, for example, once one of the whitest, and most Republican places, is now majority-minority in registered voters, and overwhelmingly Democratic. The changes aren’t as significant in Seminole, but they are still happening.

posted by strange chain at 6:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]

As for Brazile, while I find her ouster despite CNN keeping paid Trump campaign members on staff, I think the whole thing is awful.

A **NEWS AGENCY** shouldn't be keeping paid commentators who are also actual, no fooling, for real, members of any political party organization around. Invited on as guests perhaps, but kept as if they were legitimate journalists, not a chance.
posted by sotonohito at 6:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

More on the connection between the Trump campaign and the NY FBI: Meet Donald Trump's Top FBI Fanboy

Kallstrom is the former head of the New York FBI office, installed in that post in the ’90s by then-FBI director Louis Freeh, one of Giuliani’s longtime friends. Kallstrom has, like Giuliani, been on an anti-Comey romp for months, most often on Fox, where he’s called the Clintons as a “crime family.” He has been invoking unnamed FBI agents who contact him to complain about Comey’s exoneration of Clinton in one interview after another, positioning himself as an apolitical champion of FBI values. . . .

In a wide-ranging phone interview on Tuesday with The Daily Beast, Kallstrom first repeated his claim that he gets hundreds and hundreds of calls and emails but stressed they all came from retired agents, adding that he didn’t “want to talk about agents on the job.” Then he acknowledged that he did interact with “active agents.” The agents mostly contacted him before the recent Comey letter because “in all but two cases,” they agreed with what he was saying in his TV appearances, noting that those two exceptions both thought “I should be more supportive of Comey.”

Kallstrom adamantly denied he’d ever said he was in contact with agents “involved” in the Clinton case, insisting that he didn’t even know “the agents’ names.” He asked if this story was “a hit piece,” and contended that it was “offensive” to even suggest that he’d communicated with those agents. When I emailed him two quotes where he made that claim, he responded: “I know agents in the building who used to work for me. I don’t know any agents in the Washington field office involved directly in the investigation.”

Later, though he acknowledged that “the bulk” of the agents on the Weiner case are “in the New York office,” even as he insisted that the “locals” he told Pirro would’ve leaked the renewed probe had not Comey revealed it were not necessarily agents.

He declined to explain why Megyn Kelly stated as a fact that he was in contact with agents “involved” in the case. Asked in a follow up email if he suggested or encouraged any particular actions in his exchanges with active agents, Kallstrom replied: “No.”

“Now, I’m supporting Comey,” Kallstrom told me on the phone, adding that he can’t do or say anything else before election day. “He can’t characterize” what the bureau has from the Weiner emails. “The FBI can’t say anything without having all the information,” Kallstrom contends, just after telling me he supports the FBI director who’s under fire for having done just that.

And, though he predicted in September that more facts about the Clinton case would soon come out, he told me he was “surprised” by the Comey letter. Calling Giuliani a “very good friend,” who he’s seen in TV studios a couple of times recently when they were both doing appearances, Kallstrom said he thought Giuliani was more likely referring to WikiLeaks revelations or videotapes from Project Veritas when he teased big surprises to come. . . .

It’s clear enough, though, why when Comey sent a note to FBI staff on Friday explaining his decision to inform Congress about the renewed Clinton probe, the scoop about that internal memo went to Fox News. Why Kallstrom gets booked to talked about the Clintons a “crime family.” Why Clinton Cash author Peter Schweitzer, caught in a web of Breitbart and Trump conflicts, would announce on Fox that he was asked in August to sit down with New York office FBI agents investigating the Clinton Foundation (with The New York Times reporting this week that the agents were relying largely on his discredited work when they pitched a fullscale probe).

This is SOME bullshit.
posted by sallybrown at 6:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [48 favorites]

I am cautiously optimistic about a Democratic Senate (though I'm much more firmly optimistic about a Clinton win). And Senate means liberal Supreme Court, for the first time in 50-odd years.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

If she does get a majority she'd better railroad her Cabinet picks and urge Ginsberg to retire ASAP because come 2018 the Senate is all but guaranteed to flip back to the Republicans at which point it will join the House in utter screaming frothing at the mouth rabid attacks on Clinton and refusing to do absolutely anything.

Goddamn right. Get those justices in NOW. Breyer and Ginsburg, you've seen what the future holds. The Republican party will get dragged out kicking screaming and soiling themselves whilst openly embracing white nationalism all the way down. Hopefully they make such a shitshow from 2018-2020 that it assures Clinton re-election.

I give it better than 50-50 odds that they impeach her. Because it's not like they have any coherent policy positions*; they literally have nothing left but a frothing scream of "No!"

*c.f. Trump
posted by leotrotsky at 6:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

Good luck hilly, because your going to need it.

Not gonna happen. Because if the GOP overplays that hand, she quits, and then Kaine becomes president.

And they have nothing on him.
posted by ocschwar at 6:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

It is really remarkable to me that there hasn't been an FBI/DOJ memo leaked telling people to stop leaking to the press.
posted by dismas at 6:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

You're going to be disappointed then.

Absolutely. I am going in clear-eyed that what I am voting for this election is not a functional government for the next four years, it's simply non-apocalypse. The government will not be functional, but we will still have a country at the end of it, and I still hopefully will have my 401k and my house and we won't be in the midst of a nuclear winter. That's it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]

And they have nothing on him.

You say that like it matters. They didn't have anything on Obama, either. The man had the cleanest slate of any politician in recent memory, and they threw a tantrum for eight fucking years.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [113 favorites]

I wouldn't even characterize it as leaking anymore. The FBI people doing this are just brazenly talking to the press at this point.
posted by Jalliah at 6:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

One of the guys who plays in my D&D group is a vocal Trump supporter. It's earned him a fairly frosty reception that led to him approaching me last week to ask why some of the group didn't seem to like him.

That's my excuse to share something I see as a positive sign. I'm in a Facebook group for D&D dungeon masters, where a female DM posted a message about having to boot a player who wanted to role-play his character's sexual encounters, and pestered her about it after she refused. She asked the group if she did the right thing by telling him he was no longer welcome at her table.

We've talked before here on the Blue about how geek culture has its sexist blind spots, but I was utterly heartened to see that the commentary was solidly on her side. Nearly everyone declared that such harassment has no place in the game, that she was completely within her rights to participate in his character's slashfic, and that she had every right to give him the boot when he wouldn't abide by her decision. Not a few pointed out that guys like him can give their hobby a bad reputation.

Conservative pundits like to complain that feminism and liberal values lead to a joyless, sterile society, but as so often with conservative claims, the opposite is true. It's better when everyone is valued and a single sexist jerk isn't allowed to ruin things for everyone.
posted by Gelatin at 6:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [70 favorites]

You say that like it matters. They didn't have anything on Obama, either. The man had the cleanest slate of any politician in recent memory, and they threw a tantrum for eight fucking years.

This one's white.
posted by ocschwar at 6:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

You're going to be disappointed then. The House will be Republican, that's all but a mathematical certainty, and it will therefore spend the next four years attacking Clinton like a rabid wolverine, squandering tens of millions on witch hunts "investigations", and generally doing nothing but indulging in the most far right Clinton Derangement Syndrome temper tantrums that it can manage.

The Brian Buetler piece I linked above posits that we're not being imaginative enough. They're going to impeach her, that's not even a question. Further, Republicans could not only refuse to confirm a SCOTUS pick, which they've already all but promised not to do, or confirm any cabinet appointments, but they could also:

-refuse to fund the government
-tie Republican policies like repealing Obamacare, defunding Planned Parenthood, or hell, reducing the size of the Supreme Court, to the debt ceiling and force Clinton into repeated shutdown-causing vetoes
-withhold disaster spending or tie it to Republican policies
-refuse to follow SCOTUS rulings made by a 5-4 Clinton majority if there is one
-refuse to follow decisions made by Clinton executive appointees
-keep suing over everything on flimsy grounds
-tie funding the government to Clinton releasing documents to further their witchhunts

They've already flirted with all of the above under Obama. There's no evidence that they are remotely driven by any desire to keep the government functioning, and the last 8 years has been a constant progression of ever more extreme norm breaking and obstruction. At the very least they're going to keep up the same things at the same rate, but this election has shown that the extremists are now the ones running the party. There's no long the slightest check on what they're willing to do to stop the smallest Democratic success, much less a large one.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]

Oh my god Im watching MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle interview a Trump asshat and I think today's the day she will finally shoot lazors out of her eyes and burn a hole through a Trump-surrogate's head. I just know she she's got lazor eyes. She is so smart and tough but so IDGAF-funny. She's got The Ellerman in her.

I stopped watching cable news in 2012 (other than major news events) and willl wean myself off again after the election, but I might make an exception for her hour.
posted by Room 641-A at 6:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

On a related note, one thing that's heartened me this election is logging on to other discussion sites where I wouldn't expect a strong Democratic audience, sites for classic baseball and other sports, for example, and finding not only support for the dems but vehement pro-Clinton anti-Trump attitudes and only minimal pushback, so I'm a little more optimistic than the polls seem to suggest about the race.
posted by gusottertrout at 6:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

FOX News: Casting notice goes out for new 'up-and-coming' conservative news network

"Donald Trump denies he is interested in launching a new conservative news venture, but somebody sure is.

What's being billed as an "up-and-coming conservative media network currently in development" is now scouring for hosts, reporters and right-leaning, well-spoken panelists, according to a brand new casting notice obtained Wednesday evening by Fox News...

Auditions are being held at an undisclosed New York City studio on Nov. 7, the eve of Election Day."

I guess Trump isn't planning on winning.
posted by chris24 at 7:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

What, you mean the new Ministry of Information?
posted by wenestvedt at 7:03 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

If Trump (hopefully) loses (and loses badly), but wants to stay in politics, then there's a political party here in the UK with a rapid turnover of leaders and very similar views and rhetoric to himself. A perfect match.
posted by Wordshore at 7:04 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

This one's white.

And a woman.
posted by Roommate at 7:04 AM on November 3, 2016

And a woman.

The comment was a reference to Kaine.
posted by Jalliah at 7:06 AM on November 3, 2016

Grr. Misread. Never mind.
posted by Roommate at 7:06 AM on November 3, 2016

Tim Kaine is a woman? Why won't crooked media cover?
posted by Behemoth at 7:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

But still. they were pretty frothy about Bill, and have steadily been getting worse. I think in the end they'll refuse to cooperate with anyone with a "D" by their name.
posted by Roommate at 7:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

They meant Kaine if they somehow impeached Clinton. Not that they could nor that they would leave anyone alone that they didn't support. Until a new leader comes along with some ideas about how conservatism can work in govt (and not in a fascist way!), they are going to be stuck in anarchy mode for a long time.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:09 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

So I hope everyone here who has a chance to vote early has voted or is planning to do so before Election Day. Even if it wouldn't be a problem for you to wait in line on Tuesday, it might be a problem for another prospective voter because of childcare needs, disabilities, or simply because they need to get to work.

It's one small thing we can do to help and one small thing to ease the panic. Let's give those who must vote on Election Day the best possible chance to be able to cast their ballot!
posted by lydhre at 7:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

I don't think that's going to matter much, as far as the far-right response to a potential President Kaine. For Obama the black man it was "he's secret muslim Kenyan", for Clinton the woman it's "nasty bitch," but recall that for Kerry the white cishet male war-hero it was "effeminate flip-flopper coward". The hard-right opposition will always be able to find something they consider Not Real American to splash all over whomever the democrat is. Who knows, maybe for Kaine it would even be Papist or something, revive that old-school bigotry, all retro style

I'm going with "secret anchor baby" as the reprehensible Kaine branding we end up with.
posted by duffell at 7:14 AM on November 3, 2016

Kaine is Catholic, so we'll be partying like it's 1960
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

americans who are all like "I wanna move to Canada" you dudes realize you can only get like 2, maybe 3 different kinds of oreos here, max

My mom collects all the weird flavors of Oreos. I have like six different flavors of 'em right now in the house. I just tried candy corn (not worth it) and I have red velvet and Swedish Fish (?!?!) and haven't even gotten up the nerve to try it. I do recommend peanut butter, lemon, and Fruity Crisps if you can find those.

I think I could live without the Oreos if the politics was less crazy. But see above "Canada doesn't want me because I'm not smart, rare, or special" commentary :P
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

What online streaming election-night-coverage options are there going to be? Anybody know? I ask because my TV gets only one station (a weird religious one) and I'm reluctant to go to a bar that night.
posted by CheesesOfBrazil at 7:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

homunculus: Teen Who Allegedly Got Weiner Sexts “Upset” With Comey: The teenager exclusively told BuzzFeed News she is upset with the FBI for not informing her that her case became tied to the use of Hillary Clinton’s private email server.

Just had to get that "exclusively" in there, did you?

Yeah, because of all the endlessly shitty things about a fifteen year old young woman being sexually propositioned by a married, 52 year old man, and who is being used as a political pawn by a branch of the US government to try and sway an election in favor of a racist, sexist, rapey human garbage fire, that's truly what we should be upset about.
posted by zarq at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

Nevada info. Looking good.

@ForecasterEnten
Something like 60%+ of NV has already voted. Numbers are consistent with a Clinton win, unless there's something funky is up.

@RalstonReports
Wow. Dems win big today in Clark, nearly 5,000-voter edge. Was 4,000 on this day in 2012. Clark firewall now at 55,000.
UPDATE: The Nevada Early Voting Blog
posted by chris24 at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

If Clinton Wins, Get Ready For Another Impeachment. Yup, that'll be true. They'll probably actually get her impeached, too.

Sigh.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

revive that old-school bigotry, all retro style

Yeah, they've already got that part going. I'm surprised they haven't moved on to the Irish yet.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:19 AM on November 3, 2016

Colbert will be on Showtime from 11-midnight, I think.

He was on "Fresh Air" yesterday and it was a really good interview.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Yup, that'll be true. They'll probably actually get her impeached, too.

Well sure, because impeachment is the process. but there's no way they're getting 2/3 of the Senate to remove her. It'll just be another expensive time waste that'll likely improve her favorables, just like it did for Bill.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]

They'll probably actually get her impeached, too.

They'll never convict her in the Senate and BClinton's highest favorables were when Rs overreached. Honestly, it might be the best thing for midterm 2018 as far as motivating Ds.
posted by chris24 at 7:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

My mom collects all the weird flavors of Oreos. I have like six different flavors of 'em right now in the house. I just tried candy corn (not worth it) and I have red velvet and Swedish Fish (?!?!) and haven't even gotten up the nerve to try it. I do recommend peanut butter, lemon, and Fruity Crisps if you can find those.

The Red Velvet ones are weird because of the "cream cheese" frosting.
posted by ArgentCorvid at 7:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Anyway. The right's treatment of Catholic Democrats in the last decade or two hasn't been generically anti-Catholic; instead they've exploited existing political and ideological divides among Catholic laity and leadership in the US. As Kaine's star rises, watch for more and more hard-right Republicans embracing right-wing reactionary bishops, and expect more news stories about individual priests and bishops announcing they'll deny communion to anyone who supports a pro-choice platform.
posted by duffell at 7:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Yeah, I love cream cheese but I dunno about 'em. They probably can't be as bad as some others though, I hope? I can say that candy corn literally just tasted like cake icing. Which is a vast improvement from the nasty plasticness of candy corn, mind you, but everyone else I had try it said it was all too sweet.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:27 AM on November 3, 2016

HFA email team should just start giving everything they send out the subject line "BEDWETTING TODAY: $TIMEOFDAY EDITION"
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

refuse to follow decisions made by Clinton executive appointees
refuse to follow SCOTUS rulings made by a 5-4 Clinton majority if there is one

Huh? They're the legislative branch. They can't do shit except pass laws. Enforcement falls to the executive branch, which belongs to the president. Any crazy shit they pass is then subject to the judiciary.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't see the point of wringing our hands about what the Rs will do after the election. We will have plenty of time for that when it happens. I feel fairly certain that Clinton's team will have some kind of plan for what is best to do in that situation.

We need to cultivate a calm, steely, Clinton-esque resolve that, regardless of the crap that's going to be thrown, we will persevere.
posted by emjaybee at 7:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [70 favorites]

The president is required to be a native born citizen. Is that true for all those in the line of succession?
posted by rebent at 7:29 AM on November 3, 2016

It is really remarkable to me that there hasn't been an FBI/DOJ memo leaked telling people to stop leaking to the press.

The Obama Administration's immune system is only triggered by leaks of actual wrongdoing.
posted by indubitable at 7:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Anyone who's looking at trashy individual polls taken 5 days before the election and waving their arms around like a panicked Kermit (I'm looking at one person specifically here) should a) go vote, if possible (it really does calm the nerves), and b) read up on early voter numbers. The crossover rate, Dems winning unaffiliated voters, and just general "crushing it" nature of dem turn-out in EV is very heartening.
posted by codacorolla at 7:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

The president is required to be a native born citizen. Is that true for all those in the line of succession?

Mu. I believe that any position in the line of succession below VP can be filled by someone who isn't a natural born citizen - but they get excluded if the line of succession actually needs to be invoked.
posted by Francis at 7:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

according to a brand new casting notice obtained Wednesday evening by Fox News...

My favorite part about this is that it will pit Fox News against Batshit News. They really will be horribly divided.

Excellent.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

For shame! Candy corn is delicious. Fall harvest mix 4eva.
posted by ian1977 at 7:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

The president is required to be a native born citizen. Is that true for all those in the line of succession?

To become President, yes; otherwise they just get skipped (e.g. Madeleine Albright).
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Did anyone listen to the Seneca, Nebraska episode of Radiolab? It's about a dying town in Nebraska that fought in two even camps over nothing much on the surface, to the point of its own destruction. And in the aftermath all there is is abiding hatred: "those horrible people." In its own way it shook me harder than a lot of the presidential election.
posted by argybarg at 7:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

I "met" Newt Gingrich, once. He dropped by a software engineering course I was taking at Georgia Tech in November or December of '98, for reasons I don't recall, after he'd announced his resignation post-backlash to the impeachment proceedings.

He looked... broken.

It was beautiful.

Impeach another Clinton? Please. Bring it.
posted by Vetinari at 7:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

I'm depressed by the talk of impeachment. Like others have pointed out there's no way there will be votes in the Senate for conviction and removal, so it's a complete waste of time and money.

Also, I strongly feel that impeachment should only be used for offenses committed as president. The American people will have already ruled on the alleged pay for play and private server stuff by electing her.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

My favorite part about this is that it will pit Fox News against Batshit News.

Sadly, I bet the whole thing pushes Fox more to the right.
posted by drezdn at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

As Kaine's star rises, watch for more and more hard-right Republicans embracing right-wing reactionary bishops...

And then watch Pope Francis push back pretty strong, because he don't truck with that.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

So, he wants to run the nation like a business, hmmm? Sad, given how well his business is doing in Toronto.
posted by peppermind at 7:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

FelliniBlank, I pity the fool.
posted by Too-Ticky at 7:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

One other thing: if you're obsessively following Nate Silver's chest beating on 538 and buying into his panic, keep in mind that 538 is currently in the top 100 visited sites in the US. Panic-mode makes Nate a loooooooot of money.
posted by codacorolla at 7:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Vetinari: Not broken enough, evidently.
posted by adamgreenfield at 7:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Panic-mode makes Nate a loooooooot of money.

A close race (even if we have to pretend it's closer than it really is) is good for revenue in all media. Based on election threads vs others around here, it's good for MetaFilter's page views, too!
posted by rokusan at 7:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Also, I strongly feel that impeachment should only be used for offenses committed as president. The American people will have already ruled on the alleged pay for play and private server stuff by electing her.

On the other hand, if President Trump is found guilty after his election of child rape, I think impeachment would be an appropriate path to follow, for the sake of the nation.
posted by ejs at 7:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Whenever I hear someone say "I'm moving to Canada if X", I just get confused. What is the origin of this? 2000? Draft dodgers? Loyalists? I mean I feel like it only works as a joke if you could just up and move to Canada, but no one actually thinks that, right?

There is of course a long tradition of people who leave their home country / culture semi-permanently or permanently for a variety of personal, economic, political, or social reasons. It's one of the senses of the term "expatriate." In this particular circumstance the PM of Canada (I think it was, maybe just the Premier of Nova Scotia?) joked that Americans would find Cape Breton (part of Nova Scotia) lovely, and it was publicized by a Canadian radio DJ and became an internet thing. Their FAQ.

Coincidentally, we vacationed last summer in NS, and once the locals had gauged my politics (that I wasn't conservative), the generally left of center folks I met were full of questions about what I thought was going on in the U.S. election, and I heard the good-natured "You know, Canada is thinking about building a wall on the border... and making the U.S. pay for it, haha" joke a million times. Perhaps not surprisingly, a lot of these conversations happened in one or another of NS's many excellent brewpubs / brewery tasting rooms.
posted by aught at 7:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

This has all been grand for bringing Mefite lurkers into the fold, that's for sure. Welcome, all you new guys!
posted by thebrokedown at 7:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [41 favorites]

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

Because the model's previous state had Clinton up by more than +1 in Arizona before the new data was entered? In other words, the new data represents a weakening of Clinton's position.
posted by mazola at 7:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

Could Hillary's AZ "lead" have been higher in a previous version of that poll?
posted by drezdn at 7:53 AM on November 3, 2016

Regarding the poll, Nate might have decided it has a Dem bias. He would then subtract however many points he deems it biased by before averaging it in.
posted by Trifling at 7:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, he wants to run the nation like a business, hmmm?

How to run a nation like a business:

Only listen to the people at the top, ignore input from people in the trenches.
Make the poorest people work as hard as possible to further enrich the wealthiest, whose workdays often consist of golf and martini lunches.
Pay workers as little as possible.
Provide lowest amount of goods or services for highest possible prices.

Sounds like what we've been doing for centuries. Let's try something else.
posted by entropicamericana at 7:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [62 favorites]

So, a poll just came out showing Clinton up by +1 in Arizona. Before anyone gets too excited, other polls over the same period show Trump up, so let's assume for the moment it's an outlier.

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

If the poll has a known bias (e.g., it's consistently more Democratic-leaning than all the others), they might be adjusting for that. So if all Whozis Polls have a known +3 Dem bias, the Whozis Arizona Poll of November 2nd that shows Clinton up 1 becomes an Adjusted Whozis Arizona Poll of November that they're reading as Trump up 2.

(I think that's very roughly how they do it, but I have no actual knowledge of their process.)
posted by Etrigan at 7:54 AM on November 3, 2016

kyrademon, that poll was adjusted in their model from +1 Clinton to +1 Trump, meaning 538 thinks that that polling outfit has a +2 Clinton bias.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 7:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Something to keep in mind during the breathless analyses of Black voter turnout: The Blame Game Has Already Started: The Myth Of The Depressed Black Turnout.
posted by TwoStride at 7:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

The last time I saw BREAKING NEWS on UK TV it was because Michael Heseltine admitted strangling his dog. Today, it was because Steven Seagal has been granted Russian citizenship by Putin. I really need to sort out which news channels I watch before US election day.
posted by Wordshore at 7:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

You can pre-order the Hamilton mixtape tomorrow.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

For shame! Candy corn is delicious. Fall harvest mix 4eva.

I've never wanted to flag something as much as I do this comment, but in the spirit of compromise and good will I've restrained myself.
posted by gusottertrout at 7:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

My Malawian friends have sent me occasional messages over the past year that are all variations on 'What is wrong with this man? What is wrong with these people who are voting for this man?'

For one, these friends are not fans of attacks on the Obamas, which is unsurprising as the Obama family is pretty popular in Malawi. Maybe more politically-relevant, most of them believe that Malawi narrowly dodged having another long-term dictator when former President Bingu wa Mutharika died of a heart attack in 2012, and they are dismayed to see the US potentially voting in such a demagogue.

Seriously - the whole world is watching.
posted by palindromic at 8:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

Is the news that Putin granted Seagal Russian citizenship...like...a near-miss? Did Putin really mean to get Joe Arpaio over there before he can be locked up?

(And you really need to check out Seagal's look in the photo accompanying that article.)
posted by wenestvedt at 8:03 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

(And you really need to check out Seagal's look in the photo accompanying that article

definitely NOT bald or graying
posted by entropicamericana at 8:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

palindromic, I remember from my time living in Malawi that the bus station vendors sold "bin Laden" buns (not because they liked bin Laden, but because he was a well-known name). The bin Laden buns had a heavy dusting of flour on top, leaving a big white flour beard on the face of anyone who ate one. At some point there were Obama buns in the mix too. I can't help but wonder if they sell bright orange Trump buns there now.
posted by duffell at 8:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Steven Seagal has been granted Russian citizenship by Putin.

Oh boy, I see a great future in store for him if Trump is elected!
posted by octobersurprise at 8:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Saw a car on my way to work with MY CAT IS A DEMOCRAT bumper sticker. What does that mean? I don't know but it was funny.
posted by emjaybee at 8:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Study Suggests No Hidden Trump Voters:

According to a new study, a hidden army of Donald Trump voters that’s undetected by the polls is unlikely to materialize on Election Day.

“The study — which was comprised of interviews with likely voters conducted over the phone with a live interviewer, and other interviews conducted online without a personal interaction — showed only a slight, not-statistically-significant difference in their effect on voters’ preferences for president.”

posted by Chrysostom at 8:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Every time a new set of polls comes out, 538 updates their model, runs 10,000 simulations, and reports the results of the simulations. That's not enough simulations for all the randomness to even out. So sometimes there will be a pretty good poll but the simulation results will go down a bit, just due to randomness.
posted by dfan at 8:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Saw a car on my way to work with MY CAT IS A DEMOCRAT bumper sticker. What does that mean? I don't know but it was funny.

Chairman Meow isn't actually a democrat but he's willing to hold his nose and vote Clinton to keep Trump out.
posted by Talez at 8:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Not forgetting that Steven Seagal has been assisted in his hour of need by a MeFite previously, yet again I wonder how we as an online/IRL community have affected and influenced not just the US election, but the world around us. (MetaTalk thread for a post-election day)
posted by Wordshore at 8:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I hear Purrnie Sanders is out stumping for Clinton though.
posted by Talez at 8:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

My cat is a democrat.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 8:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

Chairman Meow

Mousey-Tongue, surely
posted by beerperson at 8:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [57 favorites]

My cat is 100% a Republican, he is basically Greebo except he still has both eyes. I have no doubt that he feels that he pulled himself up by his bootstraps by getting picked up off the streets of Detroit as a kitten, that he has worked for every comfort in his life, and has subsequently carried himself with totally unearned confidence.
posted by palindromic at 8:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [38 favorites]

a quiet, calming, earnestly humorous TV show where the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives and there's lots of slow mo pastoral beauty and folk music, I cannot reccomend binge watching both seasons of Detectorists

So I really like The Detectorists a lot, but I am not sure I agree with the bit about "the white men are all quite nice to all the people in their lives" bit. Both Andy and Lance are (maybe inadvertently because of their pathological passivity or extreme obsessive nerdery) quite frustrating to the women and others in their lives.
posted by aught at 8:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Mousey-Tongue, surely

get out
posted by entropicamericana at 8:20 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Latest Nevada early voting update. It gets pretty into the minutiae, but the upshot is current trends look like:

* Trump loss
* Heck (Senate) loss
* likely Dem pickups of 2 House seats
* possible Dem takeover of both houses of state legislature (those are both currently GOP).
posted by Chrysostom at 8:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]

The Atlantic: How Trump Pushed Millennials Out of the Republican Party
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Federal Court Rejects PA GOP Efforts to Send Poll Watchers to Different Counties to Look for Voter Fraud

This is potentially a big ruling, keeping racist yahoo "poll watchers" from rural counties out of Philly and Pittsburgh.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]

Mousey-Tongue, surely

'Mousie dung,' per expert cat-pun-maker B. Kliban.
posted by palindromic at 8:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

White Sox fan Barack Obama on the @cubs winning the World Series: "This is actually, for Cubs fans, the greatest thing since sliced bread.” (video)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

In-person early voting in NC counties are now all in line with 2012; last week's laggards have caught up, despite reduced EV locations.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:34 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

For a positive sports+election story, here's a tweet from December 2015 of HRC signing a fan's custom Cubs jersey, wherein she notes '2016 is the year both will win.'
posted by palindromic at 8:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

wherein she notes '2016 is the year both will win.'

RIGGED
posted by tonycpsu at 8:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Ugh. I haven't had nuclear war nightmares since the 80s. At least until recently.

Every single person casting for the rape pumpkin should be forced to sit through 1984's Threads first.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 8:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

White Sox fan Barack Obama on the @cubs winning the World Series: "This is actually, for Cubs fans, the greatest thing since sliced bread.”

I'll allow it only because sliced bread is the greatest thing since Betty White.
posted by Etrigan at 8:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

My cat is 100% a Republican, he is basically Greebo except he still has both eyes. I have no doubt that he feels that he pulled himself up by his bootstraps by getting picked up off the streets of Detroit as a kitten, that he has worked for every comfort in his life, and has subsequently carried himself with totally unearned confidence.

No doubt makes a big pile of shit and then expects someone else to clean it up.

He could have served in the second Bush administration.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

I'm depressed by the talk of impeachment. Like others have pointed out there's no way there will be votes in the Senate for conviction and removal, so it's a complete waste of time and money.

Don't be depressed about it! It's only a complete waste of time and money from the GOP point of view. It's basically the GOP spending money on Democratic mobilization. You know near the beginning of Blazing Saddles when Bart takes himself hostage? But imagine that it's Trey Gowdy* and nobody likes him so the crowd just urges him to shoot the hostage while we just jump up and down clapping like Playboy Penguin.

*Disclaimer: This should not be taken as a claim that Gowdy could successfully operate a revolver.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Detectorists is lovely and everyone should go watch both series and the Christmas special right now. Yes, the male characters drive the women in their lives round the twist, but that’s because of who they are, not because any of them are misogynist shitbags played for laughs.

Not to turn this into BBCfilter but I agree. They're obsessive nerds and drive the non-obsessive-nerds in their lives a bit mad, but it's not played for the usual infantalized men/scolding women laughs. In the end, everyone is just very sensible and get over their differences mostly like adults. They are legitimately trying to be good people. And the stay-at-home dad plot in season 2 avoids the low hanging fruit of "it's funny because he's a MAN caring for a BABY!" in a way that delights me.

As the slightly more down-to-earth wife of a guy with a pretty nerdy set of past-times (he's going to a tabletop historic wargaming con this weekend--his best friend that he's going with is even named Lance, I shit you not), I really liked how Becky totally accepts Andy's hobby even as she really has no desire to take part in it herself, and sometimes ribs him gently about it but never shames him. It's a really different dynamic than you'd expect from the set up.

/fanfare derail
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:45 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

I don't see the point of wringing our hands about what the Rs will do after the election. We will have plenty of time for that when it happens. I feel fairly certain that Clinton's team will have some kind of plan for what is best to do in that situation.

And I fervently hope that part of that plan involves calling out Republicans in advance for their obstructionism, pointing out that Republicans started conspiring to block anything Obama proposed -- even a health care policy created by conservatives -- even as he took the Oath of Office.

Let's have no more mealy-mouthed reporting "dysfunctional government" -- Clinton should start running against a do-nothing Congress from Day One, and point out clearly that "gridlock" is about Republicans refusing to do their jobs.

She should give pundits -- I'm looking at you, David Brooks -- no cover to write nonsense like "why oh why can't both parties meet in the middle" or "why or why won't the President propose some nice, middle-of-the-road proposal (which just happens to be what the president is proposing and Republicans obstructing).

Republicans will not give up their obstructionist tactics unless they pay a political price for it, and they won't pay that price as long as their behavior is normalized. Part of Clinton's job is to tell the American people that voted her into office exactly who's to blame for the "gridlock" they all hate.
posted by Gelatin at 8:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]

per expert cat-pun-maker B. Kliban.

"Love to eat them mousies" ... with guitar!
posted by octobersurprise at 8:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

As a child my bedroom was decorated in Kliban cats. This thread is giving me the nostalgia vapors now. I need to lie down.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Gentle nudge that if folks want to talk about tv shows or cats or Hamilton or other non-election stuff, that's better to do in other threads.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

Center for Public Integrity: A nonpartisan guide to national security and foreign policy issues in the presidential election. Part 1: Trump Part 2: Clinton
posted by kirkaracha at 8:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Final rallies are now on the schedule. Trump's going back to Manchester, NH, which he considers a kind of lucky charm from the primaries. POTUS will be in NH earlier that day.

Hillary will be in Philly with Bill and Chelsea, Barack and Michelle. That was always the likely location: PA doesn't vote early, the city and the burbs will decide the state, and the historic symbolism forms the backdrop for a final argument that the choice is between the continuation of American democratic norms and something else entirely.
posted by holgate at 8:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Getting back to this #@!* election:

Dear Mister Rogers, What Would You Do if You Were President?

"If I had the awesome responsibility of being President, I would try to help the country and the members of Congress understand that there are proven ways of effectively helping children born to high-risk families - that early childhood care has a lasting impact on adult life."

Mr. Rogers is still looking after us. Don't make Mr. Rogers sad, America.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [66 favorites]

Matt Yglesias on Twitter:

The last time the Cubs won a World Series, the Republican Party favored voting rights for African-Americans.

posted by palindromic at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [93 favorites]

Alan Turdyk and Chris Pine star in If Congress Was Your Co-worker
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]

Plus Bill has a big van that he's going to use to drive people to the polls in the wake of the SEPTA strike.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

My cat is probably a Libertarian, because she doesn't give a shit about anyone else unless she wants something from them.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

My cat is a Democrat, because she pretends to care about everyone to get pets but secretly will claw the crap out of you when you aren't looking.

I don't actually have a cat
posted by koeselitz at 8:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just heard about this CBC radio. I searched to see if it was posted before but could find it. Regardless it's a whole play list of Trump protest songs specifically written for the election and it's made me feel better listening to them. Aimee Mann, Death Cab for Cutie, REM, Ani Difranco. So far I'm partial to 'Mr Tangerine Man' by Wesley Stace.

30 days of 30 songs

Artists for a Trump Free America

30 Days, 30 Songs is an independent website that will release one song per day from October 10 until Election Day. It is produced by the creators of 90 Days, 90 Reasons, which sought to motivate voters to give President Obama a second term, and it features work from artists across the country.

As artists, we are united in our desire to speak out against the ignorant, divisive, and hateful campaign of Donald Trump. We will not be duped by Mr. Trump’s rhetorical contortions, by his pandering and lies and false promises. He has shown the content of his character time and time again, and the very fact of his candidacy is a blight on the nation. His words incite hatred and celebrate inequity. Most troubling of all, over the past year, the country has become inured to the towering vileness of his rhetoric and deeds, his attacks on women, Mexican-Americans, Muslims, and those with disabilities. But we have to remember these acts, and act against them. In the words of Cornell West, we cannot become "well-adjusted to injustice.”
posted by Jalliah at 8:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

Anybody catch that Lena dunham rap video? I'm sure that'll bring out the millennials to the polls.
posted by R.F.Simpson at 9:01 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'm not saying that the Cubs winning the World Series means the End Times have come, but I saw the Beast buying a chili dog during the seventh-inning stretch.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:05 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Alan Tudyk and Chris Pine star in If Congress Was Your Co-worker

Saw that and really enjoyed it, not only for its subject matter and presentation but because Pine is so obviously having a ball doing it.
posted by Halloween Jack at 9:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

A nonpartisan guide to national security and foreign policy issues in the presidential election.

too bad the election is about emails and grabbing pussy this time, it might be nice for the public to hear a bit about, oh, what happens if we withdraw from NATO and replace it with the new Trump Alliance
posted by thelonius at 9:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

The Atlantic: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?

The Clinton team’s decision to focus so much more attention on states that it wants to win—as opposed to those it believes it needs to win—represents one of the central, if often unremarked upon, choices of the 2016 election. It has allowed her to play offense for most of the general election, while forcing rival Donald Trump to spend most of his energy defending states more indispensable to his strategy than to hers.

But it’s also meant Clinton has devoted little attention, beyond field organizing, to fortifying states where Trump is now making a late push amid the tailwind of tightening national polls. With Trump consolidating traditional Republican voters, Clinton faces the risk that she has overestimated her hold on the places most central to her strategy.

(Apologies to Justinian.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

TPM: McConnell Speaks Out On Trump: Make Him 'Most Powerful Republican':

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has largely avoided weighing in on Donald Trump's candidacy, especially over the past few months, but the senator on Wednesday night urged Kentucky residents to vote for the Republican nominee.

At a rally in Frankfort, Kentucky, McConnell told the crowd that "we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America," according to the Associated Press.

"If America votes like Kentucky, we'll be fine," he added.

posted by palindromic at 9:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I saw the Beast buying a chili dog during the seventh-inning stretch.

His hair was perfect.
posted by Strange Interlude at 9:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]

What are the chances of TWU Local 234 just voluntarily deciding to take one for the team for one day without any injunction necessary from SEPTA?
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

This Creepy Unearthed Photo of Trump Must Be Carefully Studied:

We thought we knew all the greatest hits by now, but SPY recently discovered a long-lost Trump photo, and you're going to want to cancel all appointments to study this. Seemingly intended to work as either erotica or Trump's business card, the undated and uncredited photo features Trump dominating his then-wife Marla Maples, which would place it in the early 1990s. There is so much to process in this photo that it's too overwhelming to take it in all at once and may induce seizures. Let us take you on a more controlled tour of its many points of interest.

1. That Smirk

Anybody who's made eye contact with a smug frat boy who just dipped his genitals into an unsuspecting partygoer's drink knows this look: It says, "There's pretty much nothing I can't get away with, and you can bet your ass I've tested that theory."

2. The Hover

His slight forward pitch moves him from "standing" to "looming." Only a man who believes in his own immensely bold stature would insist on hovering over his recently betrothed loved-one like a Boeing V-22 Osprey waiting to lay waste to its intended target.

posted by palindromic at 9:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

The Atlantic: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?

something something horserace something something betteridge
posted by entropicamericana at 9:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

'If America votes like Kentucky, we'll be fine,' he added.

Thankfully America doesn't vote like Kentucky.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

Funny how differently we see numbers if you just change the representation slightly. Just had the following conversation with someone who's very worried about the 538 model giving a 33% probability of Trump winning:

"You know, I'll cheerfully give you 2-to-1 odds against Trump winning..." (I.e., offering to bet against Trump with the odds implied by the 538 model.)

"What? No way, those odds SUCK!"
posted by Coventry at 9:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

McConnell told the crowd that "we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

I wouldn't mind if this was the quote that was forever used henceforth to define McConnell's tenure as a public servant.
posted by Strange Interlude at 9:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

While doing some statistical analyses recently, I was surprised by how some states which I would pair together (in my mind) are so demographically different.
Kentucky: 7.3% black.
Tennessee: 17.1% black.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Issa is trying to tamp down on impeachment talk.

But he's about to be out of Congress, so he's probably trying to save his seat, and it's not really going to be his call. No word from Trey Gowdy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:16 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

@LatinoDecisions:
The final 5 national polls release in 2012:
Tie, Obama+1, Romney+1, Tie, Romney+1.
Actual margin Obama +3.9
Bad Latino sample = Bad Poll [image]
posted by chris24 at 9:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

The Atlantic: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?

...the campaign has devoted very little advertising or time from Clinton and her top surrogates in several of the states that are part of her core strategy for reaching 270 Electoral College votes—among them Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico.

HuffPost Pollster shows strong and relatively steady Clinton leads in Michigan (+7.7), Wisconsin (+6.1), Colorado (+5), Virginia (+7.2), and New Mexico (+8.9).
posted by kirkaracha at 9:19 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Trump is 100% running with the FBI is about to indict her in his rally today. Straight Breitbart.
posted by Talez at 9:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Oh, hey, Atlantic. Let me put on my editor hat and I'll get right back to you: the campaign has devoted very little advertising or time from Clinton and her top surrogates in several of the states ~~that are part of her core strategy for reaching 270 Electoral College votes—~~ in which she has a commanding polling lead, among them Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico.

Fixed for accuracy, but I'm afraid it won't be as clickbaity as you wanted. Oh, and you're fired.

Taking off my editor hat and putting on my pundit hat, I'd be worried if she were diverting resources to supposeldy safe states, instead of playing on Republican turf the way she's been doing since, oh, the convention.
posted by Gelatin at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

This campaign is disgusting.
posted by Talez at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Bring in the closer(s).

@danmericaCNN:
Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Michelle Obama will campaign in Philadelphia on Monday night, per an aide.
posted by chris24 at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Part of my deliberations about who to vote for involved imagining how the major candidates would behave if impeached. I doubt they would behave exactly the same.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016

"we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD!!
posted by octobersurprise at 9:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I like to think that everyone is redeemable. Everyone can change and be good. Steve Bannon tests this belief because that guy is straight up evil.
posted by Talez at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

> My favorite part about this is that it will pit Fox News against Batshit News.

Sadly, I bet the whole thing pushes Fox more to the right.

I don't think it'll be an ideological battle as much as a competition for the shortest skirts and lowest necklines for the female hosts.
posted by peeedro at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America

Will his first Executive Order be to assume the identity of the Koch brothers, then?
posted by Etrigan at 9:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

"we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

Well, at least we know where McConnell stands on that whole "support-but-not-endorse" thing. And Democrats should never let him forget it.
posted by Gelatin at 9:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

I've been using the Hillary Call Tool for the MeFites United Team in between my computer's attempts to overheat itself. It says we've made 2,967 calls together as a team, but it doesn't update as I go.

I've been terrified of Trump since he announced and everyone around me told me I was crazy and paranoid for being worried. I'm refraining from filling this space with a long impassioned plea for folks to get out and volunteer. Instead it's just a short plea. Please, do something, anything, to help your local down ticket races. Or the ones in spots far away from you if you are confident in your local elections going {the way you want them to}.
posted by bilabial at 9:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

The Election Polls That Matter - Jim Messina offers a reassuring and fascinating look at what polls and data matter and why as per his experience in Obama's 2012 campaign.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

... when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

I haven't seen the model so this is just speculation, but one possible explanation is that the poll degraded the model's estimate of the pollster's credibility because the poll looked implausible. That would weaken the contribution of other pro-Clinton polls from the same source.

Has anyone released an open-source implementation of the model?
posted by Coventry at 9:33 AM on November 3, 2016

> I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt.

Oh man. Don't do it! Do you want to give 2017 a challenge?
posted by ardgedee at 9:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

...the campaign has devoted very little advertising or time from Clinton and her top surrogates in several of the states that are part of her core strategy for reaching 270 Electoral College votes—among them Michigan

Hillary Clinton will be in Detroit tomorrow. In the past two months, I personally have seen Tim Kaine and Bill Clinton, and had work/school interfere with seeing Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Hillary. I don't feel Michigan has been ignored by top surrogates.
posted by palindromic at 9:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

From that Brownstein piece (my emphasis):

Clinton has devoted little attention, beyond field organizing, to fortifying states where Trump is now making a late push

That's a weirdly dismissive qualifier. Anyway, Brownstein's argument is that Clinton might regret not campaigning defensively for 273 EVs in states like Wisconsin and Michigan. The strategic problem with that argument is that it would have dragged Clinton onto Trump's territory in terms of things like trade policy, and given less focus to states whose demographics look more like the nation as a whole. (Think of it as a more abstracted version of an "I went to Bleaksville" story.) It also glosses over how the campaign has considerably more information about what the electorate looks like than he does.
posted by holgate at 9:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

I think a lot of impeachment talk is to depress votes and demoralize us. I've heard a few people in my circle say they can't face four more years of investigations and stonewalling. I don't think that would put any votes in Trump's column but it might turn someone into a "why bother, everything sucks" if they are marginal Clinton supporters.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]

[RE: turnaround time for implementation of legal marijuana]

If it's like the other states that have already legalized, maybe a year or so...

Here's how it happened in Oregon: Measure 91 was approved on November 4th, 2014 and officially went into effect on July 1st, 2015 — meaning possession was no longer illegal. Retail dispensaries had to wait until January 2016 to begin recreational sale.
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:37 AM on November 3, 2016

I've been out canvassing for statewide Democrats three times this month so far, and will be out again this weekend and on Election Day. Last night I finally logged into the call tool for Hillary (on the MeFite Team) and did some phonebanking for the first time. (Nobody picked up.)

Volunteering really really helps with my JCPL. I recommend it.
posted by aabbbiee at 9:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

A point of anecdata: my dad and stepmom (75 & 66 years old, respectively) are the typical upper-middle-class, actually-liberal-in-values-but-always-vote-Republican, southern white folks who have always confused me. (I mean, really, why don't you vote for the people who agree with you?) But cultural inertia is strong, especially in the American South, and there are lots of people like them. On top of this, they are long-time Clinton-haters, suffering from your basic Clinton Derangement Syndrome, and they have intense personal dislike for Hillary Clinton, because of a personal experience:

Years ago, my dad ran a region of an outdoor advertising agency based in Little Rock, and had to work directly with Governor Bill Clinton to resolve a very contentious zoning issue. (His impression of that interaction, back in 1987: that man will be president, probably soon.) Because of this, he and my stepmom were invited to some fancy cocktail party with a bunch of wealthy and/or powerful Arkansas people. So they went, and were completely out of place, and found themselves sitting on a sofa at the edge of a large room, chatting and people watching, when Bill & Hillary stopped nearby and had a private conversation, that was loud enough for my folks to hear.

Apparently they were mutually assessing the room, reviewing who was who, who was connected in some way they needed to be aware of, or etc. To me, the story has always sounded like a very savvy couple kind of brutally and effectively scoping a room before they have to go and work it, but to my dad and stepmom, well, let's just say they were horrified and very offended at how the Clintons were talking about people. So for years now, whenever Hillary has come up in a political conversation, both of them remember this with venom and zest that has been stoked and fed by Clinton Derangement Syndrome for decades, and it's always awkward (yes, we know this story, yes, we know that Hillary Clinton is horrible person and that you know this personally).

So you can imagine how our chats about the election have gone this year. While it was fun getting them to consider Sanders for a while, when the nominations formally became Clinton and Trump, I started to worry. You know why. But here's the part of this story that's important now: chatting with Dad a couple of days ago, I laughingly mention that Donald Trump (whom they are appropriately disgusted by) is having a rally near them (in NC), and he mentions "naw, we already voted....we're still taking sugar by the spoonful, though."

Y'all: these are the two people in my life who have hated the Clintons more specifically and for longer than anyone I know, and they both voted for Hillary. They're pissed about it, sure, but they're not dumb and they don't want people to suffer or the country to fall apart. I have since been completely calm about this Tuesday's results, because in so many ways, they effectively serve as representatives of their age and culture cohort, and I think a loooooot of people will think the same thing they did, when it comes time to actually cast their votes: Clinton is a terrible politician, but Trump is a terrible human being. (n.b.: I personally disagree with the former and am excited to cast my vote for the first female president.)
posted by LooseFilter at 9:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [136 favorites]

aabbbiee, that's totally the trend. Out of the last 50 calls I've made, precisely three people have picked up. I make notes about whose name is on the voicemail (So if the voters name is a man named Wendell and the voicemail is a lady saying her name is Susan, I put it in the box) I hope that information is helping someone somewhere.
posted by bilabial at 9:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

runs 10,000 simulations

and

Has anyone released an open-source implementation of the model?

My understanding is that part of the criticism of Silver's prognosticating is that he keeps his model private, so that you can't review what he's doing and understand it. Keeping it private makes it much harder for Silver to defend against accusations that he's making it as volatile as possible to drive pageviews and ad revenue. And as Sam Wang wrote today:

If you want an estimate that uses national polls, see The Upshot. I’m a little concerned that FiveThirtyEight’s code double-counts (i.e. overcounts) the swings in national and state polls. They’ve been a bit underconfident and volatile.

I'd also like to point out that Monte Carlo simulations are pretty mature and well-understood, and even a statistics non-expert like myself can run 10,000 simulations quite quickly in an Excel spreadsheet (although that relies on using Excel's, er, somewhat dubious random number generator). You just need data, an average, and standard deviation. The data in polls is problematic because you're relying on humans, who tend to have biases, and how Silver accounts for these biases is not known.

So basically, take fivethirtyeight with some salt. I'll be quite curious to see an analysis of Silver vs Wang after the election is done.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

The strategic problem with that argument is that it would have dragged Clinton onto Trump's territory in terms of things like trade policy, and given less focus to states whose demographics look more like the nation as a whole.

Right. I also feel like there's a lot of untapped energy that the candidates can draw on when they're regularly showing up in states that don't get a lot of love this late in the campaign. We hear all the time in these threads from Democratic voters in reddish states that there's a motivated volunteer and voter base that could turn those states purple if the candidates devoted more time to them. Now suddenly electoral circumstances make that a sensible strategic play -- anything she loses by not focusing enough on the usual swing states she can possibly gain and then some by winning just a couple of the states she's going on offense in. And it signals to those voters that the Democrats actually care about them, and, oh by the way, the underlying demographics are friendly to them even if the voter registration numbers or ultimate election day vote totals might not be.

I love this strategy. If it turns out it doesn't work, obviously I'll be devastated, but you have to count the potential upside of winning these red states or at least showing up strongly in them as you count the downside of possibly coughing up an easier win.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

"we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America,"

Well, at least we know where McConnell stands on that whole "support-but-not-endorse" thing

Oh, didn't you know?

For Republicans in 2016, it's perfectly peachy to express verbal support, donate money, even actively campaign for a candidate; but so long as you don't explicitly, with your human mouth, say out loud the magic words "I endorse this candidate" it doesn't count as an endorsement.
posted by Atom Eyes at 9:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]

Clinton is a terrible politician, but Trump is a terrible human being.

Actually, I think Clinton is good at being a politician, but being good at politics often makes you kind of bad at other types of human interactions.

Case in point: My sister has, in the course of her career, had to work with both Gavin Newsom (former mayor of SF, now LT Gov of CA) and Kamala Harris (current CA AG, probable successor to Boxer's Senate seat). Her opinion of both of them is that they kind of suck as human beings: they're self-involved and duplicitous (and Newsom is practically a robot in his inability to connect on a personal level). She loathes Harris.

But she'll vote for both of them, because she thinks they're effective politicians and she agrees with their politics.
posted by suelac at 9:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

with your human mouth

Since McConnell is an evil tortoise there is literally no chance of that.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Nate Silver suffering a Scott Adams-esque meltdown this year over being wrong about the rise of Trump, and the triumph of the Cubs is why Twitter deserves to continue to exist.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

...I saw the Beast buying a chili dog...

What was his jersey number?
posted by kingless at 9:56 AM on November 3, 2016

Nate Silver suffering a Scott Adams-esque meltdown

wow I think this is taking things a bit far.
posted by zutalors! at 9:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

...I saw the Beast buying a chili dog...

What was his jersey number?

538, apparently.
posted by Etrigan at 9:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

My understanding is that part of the criticism of Silver's prognosticating is that he keeps his model private

Someone told me today that there's enough public information about his model to reproduce it in principle. Not an expert in the field or anything, though.
posted by Coventry at 9:58 AM on November 3, 2016

Clinton is a terrible politician, but Trump is a terrible human being.

Seems the two thing I always end up reposting in election threads are the article about larger turnout and vote margins moving Dems left in policy, and this:

It’s time to admit Hillary Clinton is an extraordinarily talented politician

"It may not be impossible for a woman to win the presidency the way we are used to men doing it, but it is unlikely. The way a woman is likeliest to win will defy our expectations.

Perhaps that's why we don't appreciate Clinton's strengths as a candidate. She's winning a process that evolved to showcase stereotypically male traits using a stereotypically female strategy.

And it's working."
...

"Another way to look at the primary is that Clinton employed a less masculine strategy to win. She won the Democratic primary by spending years slowly, assiduously, building relationships with the entire Democratic Party. She relied on a more traditionally female approach to leadership: creating coalitions, finding common ground, and winning over allies. Today, 208 members of Congress have endorsed Clinton; only eight have endorsed Sanders.

This work is a grind — it's not big speeches, it doesn't come with wide applause, and it requires an emotional toughness most human beings can't summon.

But Clinton is arguably better at that than anyone in American politics today."
posted by chris24 at 9:59 AM on November 3, 2016 [85 favorites]

I love this strategy. If it turns out it doesn't work, obviously I'll be devastated, but you have to count the potential upside of winning these red states or at least showing up strongly in them as you count the downside of possibly coughing up an easier win.

And considering that, LooseFilter's marvelous story aside, much of Clinton's and Trump's support is already baked in, her campaign is probably also considering the impact rallying voters can give to down-ballot races.

Clinton's campaign may turn out to have chosen the wrong strategy, but as a political junkie from way back, I've admired their sheer professionalism. And I've considered Trump's amateurishness an insult to the American political process, and wondered why more politicians, pundits, and journalists don't share the same opinion, at least publicly.
posted by Gelatin at 9:59 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I saw the Beast buying a chili dog during the seventh-inning stretch.

His hair was perfect.

What rough bro, his hour come 'round at last, slouches towards Wrigleyville, &c.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 10:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]

I have Fanfare’d Detectorists Season 2. You may now return to your normal electoral overthinking.
posted by pharm at 10:01 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Someone told me today that there's enough public information about his model to reproduce it in principle. Not an expert in the field or anything, though.

It's possible, but the thing that I keep seeing in his blog posts is (paraphrasing) "We made some tweaks to the model."
posted by Existential Dread at 10:03 AM on November 3, 2016

Well, as of yesterday over 700,000 people have voted early in Harris County, Texas, in person and by mail. This county is home to Houston and has the greatest number of registered voters in the state. Almost 32% of registered voters in the county have already voted. This county went blue both times for Obama. (Barely, in 2012, but still blue!) In the largest 16 counties, that's over 3.3 million early votes collected.

I'm not going to tempt the whatever from high atop the thing, but I'll join those who are choosing to be optimistic. Even if the state as a whole doesn't swing over this time, this could be good news for a lot of local races.

Still, I'm having to fight some serious fatigue. I just want this to be over already. I'm just so tired of seeing article after article stressing how unlikable Hillary is. She may be winning, but...Millenials don't like her! Black voters don't like her! Leftists don't like her! Women sort of like her - but only straight white women, except for the straight white women who despise her! White men fucking hate her! Whee! And that doesn't even take into account the vast right-wing Bannon-led monstrosity that has pretty much taken a blood oath to impede everything she does and seek impeachment if she is actually elected.

So no one likes her, and no one trusts her, and no one has any enthusiasm for her...except for somehow, she's been consistently ahead of her opponent since the start of the race, and no one can figure out how. Well, I guess it's just that Trump is *just* that awful. Except that she dominated the primary as well, which is pretty amazing for someone who apparently no one likes.

Someone posted this article in the previous thread, but I keep going back to read it to remind myself that there's plenty of enthusiasm for Clinton out there in a demographic that's pretty much treated as invisible: older women.

A Hillary Clinton secret: lots of voters really like her

A majority of the electorate finds Clinton dishonest and inauthentic. Clinton devotees see her as caring and truthful, her reputation the product of unfair, gendered criticism and caricature.

“I think a lot of people find her cold and aloof. I don’t find that at all when I watch her. I see a very warm soul,” said Jennifer Hajkowski, 41, a high school teacher at the Philadelphia rally.

Green, a former foster child, was still in high school, struggling to get by, when she began sympathizing with the first lady.

“She had to change her hair and take off her glasses and act this certain way, and it had to be hurtful and degrading for her, but she did it. Can you imagine being that person, though?” Green said. “ ‘Oh, I wasn’t pretty enough. I wasn’t wife-y enough. I had the wrong name. My glasses were thick. I wasn’t wearing fashionable clothes.’ How absolutely ridiculous. I don’t think guys understand what that’s like.”

Clinton, whose rally speeches can sound stilted, has struggled to excite the young voters who were thrilled by Obama’s gifts as a communicator. But for some women of her generation, both professionals and homemakers, her preference for quiet labour over grandiose performance is familiar.

Betsy True, 61, is a quiltmaker in Alexandria, Va., who had a previous career in computers at the defence department, a male-dominated workplace where her opinions were sometimes treated with sexist disdain. She said she admires how Clinton managed to work together in the Senate with people who voted to impeach her husband — and how she did not show off.

“She just did the work,” True said. “Put her head down, did the work.”

I keep thinking of those electoral maps showing what would happen if only men voted, and what would happen if only women voted. I think it is going to be those women who will save this country. They don't hold massive rallies or have breathless think pieces written about them in the media, but they are the ones who will propel Clinton to victory because they see in her someone to truly admire. They're used to being ignored, but they will make their voices heard at the voting booth.
posted by Salieri at 10:05 AM on November 3, 2016 [119 favorites]

Reading Amanda Marcotte's latest piece on Trump crystallized a few thoughts in my head and caused me to realize something: Trump is a Hutt.

He has a ceaseless appetite and constant demand for hollow and empty praise, delights in tormenting and humiliating others, eats food that is disgusting to normal humans (well done steaks, really?), and especially enjoys dominating and sexually humiliating women. He even hangs around with criminals, and runs a grift himself!

The short fingered hands make sense now, Hutts have very stubby fingers. Likewise the awful wig, Hutts have no hair.

Donald Trump is a Hutt.
posted by sotonohito at 10:08 AM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

Remember that time Trump gave a fake $1M bill to the chess club at the Bronx school where he was "Principal for a Day" and then ran a crazy lotto where buy new sneakers for some of the kids but not all of them? The American Federation of Teachers found the chess teacher, David MacEnulty, and asked him to write it up:

Recently, a lot has come out about Trump’s appeals to racist thought. From our interaction that day, I have to say, that part of his character has been in place for a long time.

The parents were dumbfounded. It was one of those horribly awkward moments. Mr. Trump then gave the parents two $100 bills.

Later, he met with our fifth-graders in the auditorium. We had 10 classes on a grade level. His big contribution to our school was that he would hold a lottery. He would take the winning class to the Nike store in Trump Tower to get new sneakers. His view of our students’ hopes and aspirations was clearly mired in a ghetto stereotype. As our (real) principal sardonically said later: “Why didn’t he just bring the watermelon?”

One would think that before accepting the role of educational leader, Trump would have sent someone out for a little background research. Clearly that did not happen. He was winging it all the way, and he was in an environment he simply did not understand. Nor, it appeared, did he care to.

There was a major disconnect between the person, the mission and the place. Recently, a lot has come out about Trump’s appeals to racist thought. From our interaction that day, I have to say, that part of his character has been in place for a long time. The amazing thing is, he thought he put on a great performance. The man is truly clueless.

The bio at the end says the award-winning teacher is now teaching at Dalton, which nicely sums up our education system in a nutshell.
posted by zachlipton at 10:10 AM on November 3, 2016 [42 favorites]

We need to cultivate a calm, steely, Clinton-esque resolve that, regardless of the crap that's going to be thrown, we will persevere.

When I saw those pics of Hillary celebrating the Cubs win all I could think was, "how can a candidate possibly enjoy a baseball game in the middle of this garbage fire of an election season?" The fact that I'm handwringing and rending garments while she takes a moment to enjoy sportsball is precisely why she even can be President. I wish I could steal just 1% of her ability to compartmentalize.
posted by xyzzy at 10:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Couple people have already posted about the Nevada early voting returns. Here is a whole lot of tl;dr explaining exactly what that means and why it matters. Summary:

-Nevada regularly has 70% turnout in early voting, meaning that it is the easiest state to call based on early voting returns.

-Over 85% of the state’s voters live in two counties: Clark County (home of Las Vegas) and Washoe County (home of Reno).

-Conventional wisdom says that if, by the end of the early voting period, the Democrats can run up a lead of 50-60,000 votes in Clark County and keep it to a draw or slight disadvantage in Washoe County, then they have a lead which is basically insurmountable on election day. (Before election day, the party registration of voters is known, but not the way they voted.)

-As of today there is around a 50,000 vote Dem firewall in Clark County and a tiny lead in Washoe County, with half of the expected electorate having already voted.

-In summary: "Barring some absolute craziness, Nevada is very close to being locked up."

With Nevada, Clinton could lose all of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire and still win the election.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]

I figure by Saturday or Sunday [Nate Silver] adjust the model they are using will move more and more into alignment with the other aggregators.
I would actually be truly shocked if Silver did this; it would essentially destroy his reputation. (I realize his rep is pretty tarnished ((hah hah get it tarnish? silver?)) hereabout but the media still eats him up) I expect he'll ride his model all the way through the election. Any adjustments will come after the 8th.
My layman's understanding is that Nate Silver's model amplifies uncertainty the further away from the election that you are. That doesn't explain his swinginess this week, but it's brilliant dramatically. In a mathematical way, it makes sure-thing elections look more competitive than they really are, then at the last minute it wipes out that distortion so he can claim he accurately predicted all those races.

What's missing is, accurately predicted them as of when? Give me all the poll data on November 7th, and I'll accurately predict 48 or more out of 50 states too. Let's see everybody's prediction a month or three before the election before we start anointing wizards.
posted by msalt at 10:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Trump is a Hutt
Indeed
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:13 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

It's possible, but the thing that I keep seeing in his blog posts is (paraphrasing) "We made some tweaks to the model."

Thanks. Good to know.
posted by Coventry at 10:15 AM on November 3, 2016

From a few threads ago: Supertrump - Brexit in America
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:15 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Nate Silver is kind of losing his mind right now...

Guys, we broke Nate.

"Definitely NOT the apocalypse coming or anything like that, why would you even think of such a thing lol hahahaha?"
posted by zarq at 10:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Remember that time Trump gave a fake $1M bill to the chess club at the Bronx school where he was "Principal for a Day"

The "Scott's Tots" episode of The Office come to life.
posted by acidic at 10:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

some states which I would pair together (in my mind) are so demographically different.

Start with geology. There are lots of places in Kentucky that look and feel like places in Tennessee, just in terms of the landscape, but there's nowhere in Kentucky like southwest Tennessee.

I also feel like there's a lot of untapped energy that the candidates can draw on when they're regularly showing up in states that don't get a lot of love this late in the campaign.

Take the crowd at ASU last night as an example. There are always risks in doing that: going to Atlanta would fire things up, but if it was ever on the schedule, it got scrubbed after Comey's intervention. But Brownstein's classification of NC as a "wants to win" state points to the weakness of the "defend the homeland" argument, especially given the state-specific mood and trends. Political "homelands" change. And a campaign focused on the future has to go to those places, even as election officials in NC show that the past isn't even past.
posted by holgate at 10:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Case in point: My sister has, in the course of her career, had to work with both Gavin Newsom (former mayor of SF, now LT Gov of CA) and Kamala Harris (current CA AG, probable successor to Boxer's Senate seat). Her opinion of both of them is that they kind of suck as human beings: they're self-involved and duplicitous (and Newsom is practically a robot in his inability to connect on a personal level). She loathes Harris.

But she'll vote for both of them, because she thinks they're effective politicians and she agrees with their politics.

Seattle's city council includes a socialist named Kshama Sawant (self-declared; I'm not name-calling here). She has gotten a lot of love and support from left-oriented folks. She pushes for great things like the $15 minimum wage, stood firm against handing over city funds for yet another goddamn stadium, etc. On that level, she's great.

She was a hardcore Bernie supporter in the primary, which was fine. Then she threw her voice behind Jill Stein after the primary, and that's when I lost all my respect for her. Like, completely.

Only then, after I was one of the few people in my large social circle to say anything negative about her, did one of my attorney friends (works for the city) lean over and confide in me that she's a horrible person in general. Tough to work with even when you're trying to cooperate and do something in her interests. His language was not kind, but it was telling how carefully he used it.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

The Atlantic article also says "Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three loosest bricks in the blue wall." I already linked to the HuffPost Pollster charts showing her leads in Michigan (+7.7) and Wisconsin (+6.1); she's also got a steady lead in Pennsylvania (+5.8).

With Nevada, Clinton could lose all of Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire and still win the election.

She's also leading in Florida (+2.8), North Carolina (+2.2), and New Hampshire (+6.9). It's pretty close in Florida and North Carolina, but she's had a pretty steady lead in both.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I'm coming out of the closet as a Blue Texas Truther.

Join my sad tribe! I've been calling for a Blue Texas since 2008, although 2012 was some cold water on my hopes.

Although I have a real dilemma in that due to some unfortunate car trouble and related expenses I'm totally broke until Nov 9th and therefore can't lay in supplies of celebratory Tequila and queso. (TTTSC) I'll have to settle for saving the local beer in the fridge until then.
posted by threeturtles at 10:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I can't vote. If you can, you must - Chelsea E Manning
posted by Artw at 10:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

She's also leading in Florida (+2.8), North Carolina (+2.2), and New Hampshire (+6.9). It's pretty close in Florida and North Carolina, but she's had a pretty steady lead in both.

NH I'm personally not worried about at all, but there were a couple of bad polls today that had some friends of mine freaked out, so I thought I'd add it. FL and NC (and sort of UT) are the only states where I'm not feeling essentially certain of the outcome at this point. In both states I expect a Clinton win (with UT as a three-way tossup) but I wouldn't put money on it (well, I did put money on NC months ago but I wouldn't put MORE.)

On the other hand, I recently put, yes, sorry mom, $100 on a Trump loss, to pay out at $145 if he loses.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

But she'll vote for both of them, because she thinks they're effective politicians and she agrees with their politics.

I think the shitty human truth that's most been at play this election is that there are a lot of people who will in fact cut off their nose to spite their face. What you're describing about your sister is sadly a lot rarer than it should be. People will frequently choose a candidate who is going to be demonstrably worse for them and the country, just so long as they don't have to suffer the indignity of voting for someone they find unlikable (for whatever reason, real or imagined) on a personal level.
posted by tocts at 10:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Per Nate Silver, a pretty good explanation of the logic behind 538:

Nate Silver's model gives Trump an unusually high chance of winning. Could he be right?
posted by Artw at 10:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

My dad is a decades-long lefty progressive: an environmentalist, feminist, socialist advocate for the poor and disenfranchised. Earlier this year, he and I both strongly supported Sanders' candidacy and chatted often about his policies, speeches, downticket support and how to volunteer for him.

After Sanders dropped out, I felt no choice but to start lukewarmly supporting Clinton and I'm happy to report that my support has increased somewhat since then, if for nothing else than for fear of what a Trump presidency would look like for me and mine. My dad, on the other hand, has spent the time posting increasingly kooky things to his Facebook page like lists of "the Clinton bodycount" and assorted conservative posts in support of Wikileaks and Jill Stein. Nothing pro-Trump, thank the gods, but they might as well be, especially considering some of the sources. Just this morning he posted something stating that although "Hillary trolls" and the "MSM" will say otherwise, voting for Hillary Clinton in lieu of Trump is to vote for a murderer in lieu of a child rapist.

Now, I haven't seen my dad in some time, but I'm going to be spending this whole weekend with him. I wish I could just tell him that if he cares about the women in his life (like me, his daughter) and their opinions, he'll promise not to do anything to get Trump elected. But in the past I've already had to talk him down (rather, shut him down completely) from freakin' chemtrails and I wasn't even emotionally invested in that!

I think I'm just going to button my lip and talk about the Cubs instead.
posted by theraflu at 10:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Democratic EV leads in Nevada are going to be very significant. The Clark firewall looks like it's in the 50-55k range which is pretty much game over for Trump and is likely to doom some of the Republicans down ballot.
posted by vuron at 10:25 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

So late to this thread, but in reading through the comments, I keep thinking about a psychological principle I learned about ages ago. That people, when challenged with cognitive dissonance, will double down and contort and justify their thinking in order to resolve it. That is, instead of changing their mind when faced with evidence, they'll become more resolute instead of changing.

I'm worried this is what is happening to Republicans. There are those (Kasich, Romney, the Bushes) who rejected Trumpism and wouldn't get on board. They don't worry me. Good on them. Then there are the Trump-solids, and they've been expounded on at length. They're vile people being allowed to be as vile as they can muster. Gross, deplorable, etc. But that's not what worries me either, because if no one had given the Alt-Right a national platform, they'd be slowly dwindling in the next few decades.

And that's the problem. The problem is that, through this election, through forcing people to toe the party line, they are recruiting. McCain worries me. Paul Ryan worries me. This mincing, posturing, dancing on the rim...I don't think they realize that they're not really doing that anymore. As they're fond of mentioning, this election is effectively a binary choice. And they chose Trump, and they have to justify that to themselves. They have to justify everything he brings with him, and everything he stands for. And--even if Hillary Clinton wins--I'm afraid they will.
posted by erinfern at 10:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

Last night, for the book to read before bathtime, the household preschooler requested "the girl who was first." When asked which book is that, we got the clarification, "the one about Clinton" -- which let to a scramble to find, amid the piles of picture books that is or former coffee table, Hillary Rodham Clinton: Some Girls Are Born to Lead.

The girl who was first, indeed. We surely hope so.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:28 AM on November 3, 2016 [69 favorites]

Tablet: Who Goes Trump?: "What ultimately determines support for the GOP nominee isn’t race, class, or political ideology. It’s character."

The above is adapted, in some places word-for-word, from a 75-year-old Harper’s essay titled “Who Goes Nazi?” Written by Dorothy Thompson, the first American journalist to be expelled from Nazi Germany, the article presents readers with the aforementioned “macabre parlor game” in which she secretly assesses which guests at a random social function might “go Nazi” given the proper political and social conditions. As Thompson keenly observed from her time in Germany, there was no single demographic “type” of Nazi supporter; workers and businessmen and intellectuals and landed gentry all backed Adolf Hitler’s political movement, just as workers and businessmen and intellectuals and landed gentry opposed it. There were even Jews, Thompson wrote, “who have repudiated their own ancestors in order to become “Honorary Aryans and Nazis.” Nazism, Thompson argues, “appeals to a certain type of mind,” not a rigid composite. As such, her article is a timeless analysis of the authoritarian mentality and makes for disturbingly relevant reading today.

Since Donald Trump declared his candidacy for president 16 months ago, it has become a lazy journalistic trope to attribute his rise to the economic travails of the white working class in an era of globalization. Contrary to popular conception, however, the median household income of a Trump primary voter is a healthy $72,000 a year, well above the $62,000 national average and higher than the median incomes of those who supported both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Meanwhile, 44 percent of Trump voters have college degrees, far more than the 29 percent of the general adult population. According to a Gallup working paper based upon interviews with some 87,000 Trump supporters over the past year, the most exhaustive statistical analysis of the Trump phenomenon completed thus far, “There appears to be no link whatsoever between exposure to trade competition and support for nationalist policies in America, as embodied by the Trump campaign.” The same study also found “little clear evidence that economic hardship predicts support for Trump, in that higher household incomes tend to predict higher Trump support.”
...
“Believe me, nice people don’t go Nazi,” Dorothy Thompson wrote. “Their race, color, creed, or social condition is not the criterion. It is something in them. Those who haven’t anything in them to tell them what they like and what they don’t—whether it is breeding, or happiness, or wisdom, or a code, however old-fashioned or however modern, go Nazi.” Trump supporters are people who, were he to become president, would explain away the mosque firebombing or Attorney General Chris Christie’s “opening up the libel laws” against The New York Times, just as passive Nazi voters looked away from the “Don’t buy from Jews” graffiti spray-painted on the neighborhood grocery store. These people are lacking “something in them,” a moral code, and their very large numbers are a troubling indicator of a rot in the American soul.

posted by zachlipton at 10:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [81 favorites]

The federal Office of Personnel Management subtweeted the FBI this morning.

@USOPM
If you're a #Fed, please know the restrictions of political activity under the #HatchAct
Overview of the Hatch Act
posted by chris24 at 10:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [57 favorites]

Maybe don't fret the narrowing polls too much. We're just regressing toward the mean.

I plotted the top two popular vote-getters in every U.S. presidential election since 1824, using data from The American Presidency Project. The top two contenders, typically a Democratic and a Republican, but occasionally a Whig, have danced closely around the 50-50 mark for nearly 100 years. Only four times since 1824 has the winner received more than 60 percent of the popular vote. Since 2000, the candidates have been separated by an average of 3.5 points. The median and average separations have been 8.2 and 9.5 points since 1824—a figure skewed upward due to a few outlying and not particularly close races. (The electoral tally doesn’t usually appear so close because the Electoral College tends to magnify differences in the popular vote.)

posted by notyou at 10:30 AM on November 3, 2016

The girl who was first, indeed. We surely hope so.

Man, everybody forgets about Grace.
posted by Etrigan at 10:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Mexico prepares contingency plan for U.S. election
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

"Definitely NOT the apocalypse coming or anything like that, why would you even think of such a thing lol hahahaha?"

Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Naked Florida man wiring his groin! Mass hysteria!

Real wrath of God stuff.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

@jameshohmann
20% of voters are college-educated white women. Romney won them by 6. Trump is losing them by 27 in our new poll:

The Daily 202: College-educated white women are Hillary Clinton’s firewall
posted by chris24 at 10:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

Donald Trump is a Hutt.

The comparison has been made.

Also, too, I want to believe that Nate Silver is really skewing his own predictions to make sure that Clinton voters get out to the fucking polls.
posted by Halloween Jack at 10:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I become enraged when people around me act like Hillary don't got this.

Maybe I'm not in the group you're aiming this at, but I am not only terrified of Trumping winning the election, I'm also terrified of Hillary having to contend with R House and R Senate for any number of moments, much less years.

And indeed, it is possible that "Hillary don't got this" because she's depending on the American people. We don't have the best track record (I know, not the worst, either, let's not play that game) on several things - race issues of all kinds, women's rights, health care. Complacency is just about the worst thing for Hillary supporters to be engaging in, second to actively voting/advocating for Trump.
posted by bilabial at 10:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

We're just regressing toward the mean.

And they don't come meaner. Or more regressive.
posted by Grangousier at 10:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]

Don't lecture me about complacency. I never said I was complacent.
posted by agregoli at 10:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

On last night's show, Colbert played the Jew-S-A clip, starting with "a word of warning: if your children are in the room, you might want to regret having brought them into this world."
posted by zachlipton at 10:39 AM on November 3, 2016 [47 favorites]

Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this?

Yesterday afternoon I finally put a name to my daytime night terrors. It's the feeling of waiting to learn if the ugly mole if malignant or not.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

Everyone here deserves to share their feelings without being hectored that they are doing the worst thing. Especially since I didn't DO anything wrong except feel a certain way and share it.
posted by agregoli at 10:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

One deleted, everybody's tense, let's not take it out on each other.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 10:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

With Icelanders nervously awaiting results of wrangling to form a coalition government, the leader of the centrist party Bright Future, who's also a musician, is preforming a concert later today with his punk band, Dr. Spock, as part of the Iceland Airwaves music festival. I think that's a great idea. The music festival is perfectly timed to take voters minds of things while the negotiations are underway. (There's no guarantee there will be a government by the time the festival is over, though. Coalition wrangling take a while.)

By the way, I know Kate Tempest has some fans here. She's performing tomorrow. KEXP will be live streaming (though it's during work hours for most people in the US).
posted by nangar at 10:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I am seriously tempted, now, to actually purchase this shirt. ("2016 Sucks")
From the same vendor, for $1 less, you can get "It's Always Taco Night Somewhere" (Don't the most people consider Tuesday Taco Night?)
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

So the essence of that Vox piece on Silver was that in his method the 14% undecided and third party voters could basically go either way so he leaves a wider range of possibilities to account for that, making it more likely for Trump to win or Clinton to landslide? Is that it? It would make all the froofrah over this stuff seem even sillier if so.
posted by gusottertrout at 10:45 AM on November 3, 2016

Well, his interpolation of national poles might be making things flakey too.
posted by Artw at 10:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Remember how Trump said “It's very possible that I could be the first presidential candidate to run and make money on it”?

Both Campaigns Pay Themselves, But Trump Spends a Lot of Cash on Trump:

" Looking at the FEC data from July to October, it's clear that Trump’s self-payments fall outside the norm. We’re not talking about a Trump Tower taco bowl here and there. Trump uses campaign funds (which is to say, supporter donations) to do stuff like fly around in a Tag Air Boeing 757 with gold-plated seat belts. Trump is Tag Air’s CEO, and the campaign racks up a travel bill between $300,000 and $2 million per month. The campaign also spends thousands of dollars reimbursing Trump family members, over $180,000 a month on (unusually high) rent in Trump Tower and Trump Plaza."

This is of course the sort of thing that the media should be investigating and Congress holding hearings on after the election, but hey, e-mails!
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this? I become enraged when people around me act like Hillary don't got this. I can't go there. All I know is, on the 8th? SHE WINS. Finally.

There's a part of me that's like "Trump?! Nahhhh...." but then I panic. Not just because of the closer polls but also because of Brexit. Lots of people never thought Brexit would happen, and look at it now. And it's an effin' mess. So I can't allow myself to refuse to believe he could win.
posted by bananana at 10:50 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I have to say how much I am looking forward to next Wednesday, assuming the election is over by then. Although for North easterners, we probably only have a few weeks off until the NYC mayoral and New Jersey gubernatorial kick off. Maybe they'll hold off until January?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:52 AM on November 3, 2016

>Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this?

I refused to believe that Bush could win. Twice. I wil believe Trump can't win once he's actually lost. Nobody knows what's going to happen, and nobody will know, until it's happened.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 10:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]

Halloween Jack there needs to be a word for when you think you've gotten an idea only to discover that it's common knowledge. I bet there's one in German.
posted by sotonohito at 10:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

This is of course the sort of thing that the media should be investigating and Congress holding hearings on after the election, but hey, e-mails!

I was just looking at the upper left hand corner of the New York Times and coming here to say something quite similar. One wonders why nobody points this out where everyone hears it.
posted by Namlit at 10:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just a thought, if you're in the USA and you are on overload with election news, comments et al. The clocks go back in, what, three nights time when Daylight Saving Time kicks in (most places). So that's three evenings left before an hour of end-of-day daylight is abruptly lost.

If you can e.g. work and time and mobility and weather permitting, maybe consider leaving the screens of election fire behind and doing some outdoor activity over some of those evenings (even better if you can do it in a place with no political lawn signs). It's a good time of the year to do so there, it'll be nice exercise and vitamin D top-up and clear the head time, and when you come back there will still be a few days - and evenings - left of pre-election stuff on the TV, Internet and other screens and places.
posted by Wordshore at 10:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

20% of voters are college-educated white women. Romney won them by 6. Trump is losing them by 27 in our new poll
Every 'drilling-down' poll I see shows Trump performing worse with various sub-populations (especially the growing ones). Where are his votes coming from? Are alt-right/deplorables suddenly the most motivated voting group ever?
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:59 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

President Obama about to begin speaking in Jacksonville, Florida (CSPAN)
posted by everybody had matching towels at 10:59 AM on November 3, 2016

Well, his interpolation of national poles might be making things flakey too.

Can't we leave the Poles out of this?
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 11:00 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

WHOOPS that's a recording of his speech in Miami earlier ahhhh the Jacksonville one is later today
posted by everybody had matching towels at 11:00 AM on November 3, 2016

Is anyone like me, and they REFUSE to believe Trump could win this?

Not me. I am pretty certain Clinton will win, but after the primaries I about 70% believed Trump would. It's amazing to me that the circular firing squad of the Republican primaries exposed so few of the weaknesses in Trump's character and history which have come out since. It's like no one knows how to do opposition research but the Clinton campaign.
posted by Coventry at 11:01 AM on November 3, 2016

Just a thought, if you're in the USA and you are on overload with election news, comments et al. The clocks go back in, what, three nights time when Daylight Saving Time kicks in (most places).

Thanks for reminding me that this dumpster fire gets an additional hour added to it.
posted by Etrigan at 11:01 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

FBI launches internal investigation into its own Twitter account

Candice Will, Assistant Director for the FBI’s Office of Professional Responsibility, said she was referring the matter to the FBI’s Inspection Division for an “investigation.” Upon completion of the investigation, the findings will be referred back to the the Office of Professional Responsibility for “adjudication.”

posted by zakur at 11:04 AM on November 3, 2016 [32 favorites]

~Hillary Clinton will be in Detroit tomorrow. ~
Wow, palindromic I would like to see Hillary in person, but I hate crowds.

I have done phonebanking, my names in the group are -Carrie and Sesha. Since my last round I have not been able to get the call tool to work. I created the second profile to see if would work. It did for one call session and stopped working, also. I did report my problem to the IT people but it's probably small potatoes at this point.

This is the first campaign I have volunteered for and it made me feel better about the election.

Thank you for your volunteer efforts, too.
posted by Gadgetenvy at 11:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

Can't we leave the Poles out of this?

Can we? One of the candidates is THIS CLOSE to using the phrase "annex the Sudetenland" at any given time.
posted by delfin at 11:06 AM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Can't we leave the Poles out of this?

they're still pretty touchy about that time kerry forgot poland
posted by entropicamericana at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Well, his interpolation of national poles might be making things flakey too.
Well, you can't say "You forgot Poland".
jinx
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

oneswellfoop: An example of Simpson's Paradox, maybe? Hopefully not?
posted by Turd Ferguson at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016

Sudetenland is Czech, silly.
posted by Coventry at 11:07 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Probably what's most concerning to me at this point is the information bubble so many Trump supporters are in. Like they ONLY listen to what Trump and the alt-right say, to the point where they seem to think he's the greatest, most amazing possible candidate (even his flaws, like the horrible things he's said and done, are somehow made to be positive traits) while Clinton is, with no exaggeration, the most corrupt politician to ever run for President. Like, how is that even possible? She is literally THE WORST CANDIDATE EVER?? Come on.

Even Clinton's most fervent supporters are generally aware that she's not perfect. She's a human being. She's made some mistakes. But at least she's spent her life trying to work for the greater good and to serve things bigger than herself and her family name. And they call the mainstream media biased, but hey - somehow the people who pay attention to it manage to be aware of both candidates' faults.
posted by bananana at 11:09 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

It's like no one knows how to do opposition research but the Clinton campaign.

What opposition research has the Clinton campaign actually done, though? Most of the dirt on Trump is either stuff that's been public record since forever, scandals unearthed through investigative journalism, or the proceedings of ongoing lawsuits. Clinton has been very effective in terms of her messaging and capitalizing on new scandals as they erupt, but what has her campaign told us about Trump that wasn't already known? Even the Alicia Machado thing was more of an old scandal that Clinton got Trump to reignite rather than anything new.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 11:11 AM on November 3, 2016

I think 538 is less useful this year because the data it uses to make its predictions has been too volatile and noisy. The public polls appear to be struggling to come up with a good likely voter screen as evidenced by the high volatility in their expectations of who will vote.
posted by humanfont at 11:11 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

My dad, on the other hand, has spent the time posting increasingly kooky things to his Facebook page like lists of 'the Clinton bodycount'

The main reason I'm for her is she's really, really good at murder.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:12 AM on November 3, 2016 [102 favorites]

So everyone should really calm down.

I know we've been burned before and getting your hopes up only to have soul crushing disappointment is a really horrible thing but with 5 days left just make sure you vote. Thats honestly all thats left at this point. I've worked on campaigns before, like a paid insider position, and basically all the publicly available information is shit. So 538 doesn't really know anything especially so close to the election. Everything gets crazy in the last few weeks, with everyone throwing so much shit at each other and all the voters getting so tired of the process that they refuse to accept calls. But the campaigns internal data is super specific and highly reliable. And its based on how someone will probably vote and if they have already voted or not. Yeah, the campaigns know if you have already voted. That means in states with early voting, campaigns know way before election day what the result will be. In states without early voting they know exactly who to target resources at to ensure all the votes they need are counted. Look at some stories from the campaign staff for McCain in '08, everyone knew they were doomed in September. It's been pretty much the same thing with Trump's guys this time around.

And what convinces me even more is the blatant refusal by the Republicans and the Trump campaign to invest in an actual campaign. Yeah, TV ads and media time is great. But canvassers and phonebankers, starting in the primary campaign (which is one reason a long and grinding primary is actually a plus) collect data on voters for the campaign and then follow up on it later for the general election and ensure that all those people vote again. You know that saying about how you need to remind someone 7 times before they don't forget? That's why campaigns keep calling and calling and calling. Trump has clearly not invested in this. The last article I read said that Clinton was outmanning him something like 5:1 in paid staff. And that doesn't even count volunteers. The Republican party as a political culture is sort of... against it? I dunno. I am sure the political operatives know how useful it is, but most of the activists and candidates see it as some form of "community organizing" like ACORN or what our communist president does.

If you really want to know whats going on with the campaigns check the candidates travel schedules and the schedules of their biggest surrogates. Then you can see what areas they think are the most important. Try to compare with what states they would be "defending" or "attacking" compared to whats neccessary for 270 EV. In our case Clinton, Kaine, Biden, and the Obamas have been almost 100% attacking this campaign. I would say they have been hyper aggressive, and probably know something we don't. They know the Presidential race is in the bag, but want to win downticket races and expand the map for future races by registering voters in places like Arizona, Texas, and Georgia. If they have been "defending" it's been in swing states like Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio which Clinton doesn't even need to win necessarily. Where they aren't going nearly at all is places like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Michigan.

After all this my prediction is

CLINTON 358
TRUMP 174
MCMULLIN 6

VOTE!
posted by Glibpaxman at 11:14 AM on November 3, 2016 [97 favorites]

Sudetenland is Czech, silly.

That's not what I've been hearing from Trump supporters.
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

Rokusan: I made a pilgrimage back to the homeland to see LMM during the last week of his run, a birthday surprise for my best girl and all... but, yeah. Worth it. Very worth it. The last time a play made me say "wow" when the lights came up was... heck, maybe JCM's original Hedwig?

I strongly recommend Taylor Mac's new play HIR, finishing up a run at Defunkt Theatre in Portland but roaming around the country. (Australia next year). Edgy, funny, deep look at gender roles, sexism and trans-everything. NYT: "audacious and uproarious black comedy"
posted by msalt at 11:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

What opposition research has the Clinton campaign actually done, though?

I tend to assume that the ultimate source of most negative news about Trump is the Clinton campaign and its surrogates. Not to RLTP or anything, but that's certainly how it worked with Bernie, where we know from the email leaks that the Clinton campaign was doing extensive oppo research. It's widely assumed that the corresponding emails on Trump have not been released because the source favors Trump. YMMV, though.
posted by Coventry at 11:17 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'm not really worried at all (to the point where people keep posting on my Facebook wall requesting info on early voting statistics or what-have-you because they know how closely I'm following the race and how basically confident I am in the outcome).

But! I am on some new medication which is giving me more memorable dreams than I normally have, and in the past week I have had two oddly similar ones: in the first, a school full of white-faced vampire creatures who sit perfectly still until the moment you set eyes on them, at which point they shamble over and steal your life-force; and the second, an invasive plant alien which overgrows entire planets like kudzu and turns the few surviving inhabitants into mindless servants. Both times I woke up in the middle of the night half-thinking that the monsters in these dreams were coming for me, which hasn't happened to me in years.

I WONDER IF THESE DREAMS ARE IN ANY WAY RELATED TO THE ELECTION
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

Designer Michael Thibodeau points out the weird relationship between the two leading and competing shipping carriers and U.S. Presidential candidates. (Yeah, but who's the USPostalService eagle?)
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

What Glibpaxman just said, 100%. Do GOTV and donate, but most importantly vote.

Also, due to the way Silver's model works, he's incorporating polls that have far worse data than stable and predictive earlier polls! This close to the big day, people don't have the time, the money, or the inclination to do high quality polls. The polls that we ARE getting have any number of methodological flaws that distort their results. The ACTUAL data (EV numbers) is extremely good for Clinton. It's not in the bag, but refreshing a flawed, poorly developed 538 model that's ONLY GETTING WORSE BECAUSE IT'S ONLY TAKING IN WORSE DATA is a good way to give yourself an unearned ulcer.

Vote. GOTV. Donate. Don't worry yourself sick.
posted by codacorolla at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

The main reason I'm for her is she's really, really good at murder.

The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing...
posted by Talez at 11:18 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]

Clinton has been very effective in terms of her messaging and capitalizing on new scandals as they erupt, but what has her campaign told us about Trump that wasn't already known? Even the Alicia Machado thing was more of an old scandal that Clinton got Trump to reignite rather than anything new.

But that's been part of the brilliance of her campaign messaging, as far as I'm concerned. She doesn't need elaborate or obscure negative advertising, she just shows Trump speaking. And then Trump complains about her nasty negative ads, when they're nothing but showing him saying things.

She doesn't have to define Trump; she's letting Trump define Trump. And as part of that, she's set some clever and obvious traps, like the Machado one, that Trump isn't disciplined enough to avoid, proving even further how unfit he is.
posted by Gelatin at 11:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing...

No, man, you don't get it. YOU DON'T KNOW HOW DEEP THIS GOES
posted by Mayor West at 11:21 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Here is another comforting thing: Nevada early voting looks really really good for Clinton. Nate has said that if the 538 model was run with Nevada in the safe win column for Clinton, she has a 90%+ chance of winning by their model. So let's not panic just yet.
posted by peacheater at 11:22 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Both times I woke up in the middle of the night half-thinking that the monsters in these dreams were coming for me, which hasn't happened to me in years.

I had a dream last night that I was eating a supermarket bagel. It was awful.

So, see, everybody is having nightmares.
posted by uncleozzy at 11:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

So at what point after the polls show that we have legalized mj would we be able to take advantage.

By all accounts it's very easy to get a medical marijuana card in Cali, and it won't be hard to demonstrate stress that needs medicating.

If that doesn't work for you, come visit Oregon! We're ahead of you on this one, and right next door. While you're here, check out our vote by mail and motor voter registration system -- it's working great!
posted by msalt at 11:23 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Of course, now that it looks like Trump has an outside chance of winning, the fetid slime in congress is slopping in line behind the nominee. As if you needed more of an indication how rotten this party is, and more of an indication of just how cowardly and devoid of principle the leadership is. What bullshit about how he doesn't represent the party.

For half a century, in order to keep their hands in everyone's pockets, the GOP brass have deliberately pursued a strategy of manipulative identity politics centered around stoking racial hatred, enforcing gender hierarchy, pandering to religious intolerance, eroding respect for civic institutions and promoting militaristic nationalism as the only acceptable form of patriotism. Who would have thunk it, that this is the kind of ideology that breeds fascists? And now these same weasels want to disown the base, now that they turn out to be Nazis. Republicans made this. Republicans own this. The GOP is now unmistakably the party of American fascism.

So it's only fitting that the party "leadership" is sheepishly lining up behind the avatar of the monster they thought they could control. It doesn't matter that Trump is an incompetent, emotionally unstable con artist and child molester in hock to the Russian mob and/or deep state. He is the channel for the rage of the base, and if that's their route to power, they are craven enough to take it.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 11:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]

in the first, a school full of white-faced vampire creatures who sit perfectly still until the moment you set eyes on them, at which point they shamble over and steal your life-force

Just lock them in a room with some Weeping Angels. Easy-peasy.

We've discussed much how Trump's fragile ego, like his small hands, drive much of his insecurity. When he loses on Tuesday, I wonder if the fact that Clinton didn't have to spread lies about him but simply show the voters Trump talking in order to make them reject him will prove especially galling.
posted by Gelatin at 11:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Glibpaxman, from your lips to Justinian's ears.
posted by gwint at 11:27 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

The GOP is now unmistakably the party of American fascism.

Again I am reminded of Jonah Goldberg's little book that was a feeble attempt to claim that, nuh-uh, it's liberals who are the real fascists, and I grin.
posted by Gelatin at 11:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing.

Oh man you are so bad at anatomy. People breathe with their noses
posted by beerperson at 11:29 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

I'm not having nightmares but I am waking several times a night which is not usually my thing. I blame the election.

I soothe myself by remembering that St. Arnold Christmas Ale, my favorite of their ales, is now in stores and I get to have one again on election night.
posted by emjaybee at 11:30 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

The strongest indication that HRC has never killed anyone is that Weiner is still breathing.

I don't think "that Weiner" is appropriate language to refer to the FBI director.
posted by 0xFCAF at 11:31 AM on November 3, 2016 [51 favorites]

guys, i've posted much of this before, but i just want to share it for people who need good news:

i'm a former #neverhillary guy back when she first announced she was running again. i was a big (yooge) bernie supporter when he threw his hat in the ring, having first heard of him many years ago here on mefi. i donated to his campaign, the first i have ever donated to since i first started voting in 1992.

when it became clear he lost the nom, i decided i simply would not vote for the presidential ticket because i living a very blue state and it was safe because i thought both of the major party nominees were deplorable. i was never a hillary basher in the 1990s, i thought she was unfairly maligned. it was the stuff afterwards that made me dislike her: the votes for the war, the patriot act, dismissing obama, chumming it up with wall street.

it has since become clear to me that the two candidates are not even remotely equal and while hillary is not perfect, i remain cautiously optimistic about a hillary presidency, particularly if we give her a blue senate. it has also become clear that trump is even more deplorable than i previously thought (and believe me, i've always thought he was slime) and the republic would not survive a trump administration

i happily cast a straight democratic ballot earlier this week (including hillary for prez) and what's more, i donated to hillary's campaign today. i am not complacent about her winning, but i am optimistic. she's got this.

so take a few deep breaths, have a taco, have your favorite beverage, whether it's an ice cold IPA or a pumpkin spice latte or rotgut whiskey. vote early if you can. vote often if you can (just kidding, don't do that, it would be wrong), donate if you can. volunteer if you live in a state that is not a sure thing. but do not panic.

and look forward to another 8 years of kate mckinnon in pantsuits on snl.
posted by entropicamericana at 11:32 AM on November 3, 2016 [99 favorites]

'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say
posted by zombieflanders at 11:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]

Again I am reminded of Jonah Goldberg's little book that was a feeble attempt to claim that, nuh-uh, it's liberals who are the real fascists, and I grin.

This is why I have so little sympathy for people like him and Ben Shapiro moaning about the hatred targeted against them. I mean, you have dedicated your entire career to a political party that promotes racism, misogyny and worship of violence as civic virtues, and denigrates civic institutions and tolerance of other cultures, and now you have a sad when your followers turn on you cause surprise, Nazis aren't too fond of Jews, you stupid assholes.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 11:35 AM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say

Unsurprising, if depressing. What is it with law enforcement types and fascism?
posted by leotrotsky at 11:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say

EXTRY EXTRY READ ALL ABOUT IT! Authoritarians All In for Fellow Authoritarian! Shocking News, Said Nobody Ever!
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:36 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

What is it with law enforcement types and fascism?

Job security.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

the whole "i'm moving to canada" thing is so weird to me bc like. Did U Kno? there are 33 other countries to our south with socialized medicine and better weather.
posted by poffin boffin at 11:37 AM on November 3, 2016 [55 favorites]

>we need a new president, Donald Trump, to be the most powerful Republican in America

Will his first Executive Order be to assume the identity of the Koch brothers, then?

This has put some kind of bizarre Highlander scenario in my head and I would like to thank you for that.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:38 AM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm not having nightmares but I am waking several times a night which is not usually my thing. I blame the election.

This made more sense when I first misread it as "erection".
posted by rocket88 at 11:40 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

From Roger Stone's: "The Clintons' War on Women."
"There are widespread claims that the Clintons are responsible for the death of as many as eighty-three people whose knowledge stood in the way of political ascent. Based on our investigation, the Clintons are only plausibly responsible for the deaths of half of the people on this list."
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:41 AM on November 3, 2016

Paula Chertok: Trump’s Orwellian “Rigged” Campaign Is Straight Out of Putin’s Propaganda Playbook

People are sucked into Trump’s disinformation swamp through a variety of linguistic techniques, aimed to elevate emotional responses. You will be angry whether you buy into Trump’s conspiracies or see through them. … This outrage factor is psychologically exciting, agitating our human brains. Again, we can’t avoid this psychological effect. Trump’s language either pulls us in or reviles us, but the high level of emotion and agitation is common to all his listeners at the end of the day.

posted by Kabanos at 11:41 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

I'm not having nightmares but I am waking several times a night which is not usually my thing. I blame the election.

I said it in a thread two weeks ago or so, I'll say it again - if my old recurring nightmares about nuclear war come back between now and Tuesday I will develop the ability to teleport myself to Trump's presence through sheer will and I will punch him in the dick.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:42 AM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

speaking of erections
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

My girlfriend keeps getting voicemails from the Trump camp and stacks of election junk mail cards swearing that [non-Republican candidates] are all sorts of evil. Now the voter intimidation junk mail is starting with the voter report card stuff. This election needs to end. It's dragged on far too long and the mental sewage it's gushed all over the national discourse has poisoned so much.
posted by Servo5678 at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I said it in a thread two weeks ago or so, I'll say it again - if my old recurring nightmares about nuclear war come back between now and Tuesday I will develop the ability to teleport myself to Trump's presence through sheer will and I will punch him in the dick.

Don't dick punch. Vote!
posted by Talez at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

A partisan FBI actively engaged in politics five days before an election. This is fine!
posted by diogenes at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]

Saw a car on my way to work with MY CAT IS A DEMOCRAT bumper sticker.

DemoCAT, surely. I mean come on let's at least TRY people.
posted by freecellwizard at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

'The FBI is Trumpland': anti-Clinton atmosphere spurred leaks, sources say

I have a friend who worked for several years in one of their field offices doing analysis. Dude's portrait of the culture is that there is a minority of agents that are really, really good guys who are trying to protect people, some of whom are literally damaging their own mental health chasing down child pornographers and pedophiles to keep kids safe. But the majority, he said, are dong-swanging alpha bro hardline conservatives. Like wish-it-was-1955, three-martini-lunches people. The only surprising thing to me about their latest moves is how much of it they're doing out in the open. I figured they'd have a better self-preservation instinct than that, but they may think they're bulletproof, who knows.
posted by middleclasstool at 11:44 AM on November 3, 2016 [42 favorites]

DemoCAT, surely. I mean come on let's at least TRY people.

You are wrong it's Demeowcrat
posted by zutalors! at 11:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

But the majority, he said, are dong-swanging alpha bro hardline conservatives. Like wish-it-was-1955, three-martini-lunches people.

That's what you get when you disqualify everyone who has ever smoked weed I guess
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:46 AM on November 3, 2016 [71 favorites]

entropicamericana, I have almost exactly the same history and thinking!
posted by Coventry at 11:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

And the FBI is getting its intel from Bannon. No problem there!
posted by diogenes at 11:47 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

The IRS's Commendable Silence In The Presidential Campaign [forbes]

Unlike the FBI, the IRS has drawn a bright line against any disclosure of any kind, and stuck with it. By doing so, the IRS has stayed out of the campaign muck.

It has come to this: The FBI, treated for decades as a paragon of bureaucratic virtue, is up to its neck in the swamp of electoral politics, thanks largely to its own doing. The IRS, subject of never-ending criticism from both political parties for bureaucratic fumbling, has been a model of responsibility and rectitude. For once, I’d rather be the IRS.

I'll add also that the IRS has a higher percentage of women and POC senior executive service employees than the government as a whole. PDF See also this NYT article from October on the FBI's lack of women and POC agents.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [80 favorites]

eats food that is disgusting to normal humans (well done steaks, really?

WHAT? I mean, I knew the man was despicable, but WELL DONE STEAKS? Quick, someone publicize this! I think I see a way we can win Texas.
posted by threeturtles at 11:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

Reagan also liked his steak well done. Clearly the GOP has become the party of expensive, overcooked leather.
posted by stet at 11:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

'The FBI is Trumpland'
The FBI was originally established to fight Organized Crime - the Mob. And now they are working in service of the only Presidential Candidate with verified Mob connections. (Of course, if they'd done their jobs long ago, Dirty Donald and his New Jersey mob pals would've been in jail) Even J. Edgar would be ashamed.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:52 AM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Where are his votes coming from?

Non-college white men. There are still a lot of them.

The Nevada early voting numbers are reliant on registration rather than actual preference, so they don't catch crossovers, but it suggests something's off with the ongoing polling. That's not an unskew: Nevada has long had a public-polling R+ lean (across multiple pollsters) and the question after every election is whether it's strictly a Nevada thing -- high population mobility in and out of state, hard to contact casino/entz workers on evening shifts, etc. -- or whether there are deeper problems with sampling southwestern Hispanic voters that might extend to somewhere like Arizona.
posted by holgate at 11:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Maybe the proud election-thread-clobbering peoples here can add “THREADS” with a wash-proof sharpie to the I SURVIVED THE 2016 ELECTION shirt
posted by farlukar at 11:53 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Today in "Soren Lorensen Visits The Library Where The Trump Table Is" (I swear to god I'm not doing this on purpose, it's just in a really central location on campus!):

Their banner reads YOUTH FOR TRUMP.

Not "STUDENTS FOR TRUMP" or "YOUNG REPUBLICANS FOR TRUMP" but literally the most simultaneously awkward and Godwinny-dogwhistly phrase possible.

Seriously, guys: youth? Really?
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:54 AM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]

> What is it with law enforcement types and fascism?

Oversimplified, but law enforcement deals a lot with the letter of the law rather than the spirit, and they're not lawyers. Most of them don't ever want to be lawyers. So it's seen as total bullshit when you do all this hard work in order to catch the bad guy, but it's thrown out because they weren't Mirandized, or some other legal "trickery".
posted by fragmede at 11:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I would wear the shit out of a I SURVIVED THE 2016 MEFI ELECTION THREADS shirt.
posted by joyceanmachine at 11:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]

Seriously, guys: youth? Really?

You'd prefer Trumpjugend?
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 11:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

Law enforcement types are overwhelmingly white and male.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:56 AM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

The Economist enthusiastically endorses Clinton
posted by obliquity of the ecliptic at 11:57 AM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

Anybody catch that Lena dunham rap video? I'm sure that'll bring out the millennials to the polls.

Please promise me this is a joke.
posted by msalt at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Seriously, guys: youth? Really?

I can't help but hear this in the voice of Joe Pesci from My Cousin Vinnie. Yute.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

You'd prefer Trumpjugend?

How about "Orange Shirts"?
posted by Mayor West at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

This was posted a few threads ago, but I think it's relevant enough to share again.

Vox: Why women are still voting for Trump, despite his misogyny

The role of sex and gender in this election extends beyond Donald Trump’s personal history and the media’s excessive scrutiny of Hillary Clinton’s voice. Trump’s ethno-nationalist populism reflects anxieties over the changing role of women and men in society against a backdrop of harrowing economic crisis and demographic change that will soon make the United States a majority-minority country.

As Stephanie Coontz argues, the upheavals are all interrelated. Economic precarity promotes the scapegoating of women and people of color while the divergent fortunes of poor and affluent families foster distrust and anger over the rising stature of women. Coontz, a longtime observer of changing gender relations through a political economic lens, teaches history and family studies at the Evergreen State College. She is the author of multiple books, including A Strange Stirring: The Feminine Mystique and American Women at the Dawn of the 1960s, Marriage, a History, and The Way We Never Were.

This interview really helped my understanding of why people are voting for Trump.
posted by ZeusHumms at 11:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

@fahrenthold: The $1M gift that @realDonaldTrump gave to veterans in May, under media pressure, went to USMC charity run by Kallstrom.
[the former FBI dude who's been all over Fox]
posted by melissasaurus at 12:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [50 favorites]

Yair Rosenberg:
Melania just plagiarized Trump's second wife Marla Maples. Here's the only Google results for "if you could dream it, you could become it"
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

From the unsurprising headlines department, NYT: Donald Trump’s Income Isn’t Always What He Says It Is, Records Suggest, focusing on how his financial disclosure forms overstate his income by showing gross revenue, excluding often significant expenses:

The records demonstrate that large portions of those numbers represent cash coming into his businesses before covering costs like mortgage payments, payroll and maintenance. After expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on his disclosure forms, or actually lose money.

In fact, it is virtually impossible to determine from the forms just how much he is earning in any year.

Mr. Trump appears to have used a provision in federal ethics laws that allows business owners to list gross revenue, as opposed to net income after expenses, on their disclosure forms. But he does not seem to have completely acknowledged that choice. Rather, he has suggested that the figures on the form represent money in his pocket.

In news releases, the Trump campaign said that “Mr. Trump’s income” listed in a disclosure form filed last year was $362 million, and was more than $557 million in a form filed this year. During the debate with Mrs. Clinton in September, he mentioned an even larger figure.

“It shows income … in fact, the income — I just looked today — the income is filed at $694 million for this past year, $694 million,” Mr. Trump said. “If you would have told me I was going to make that 15 or 20 years ago, I would have been very surprised.”

In short, he lists income of millions of dollars from a business on his disclosure forms, but then files property tax appeals showing that same business lost money or barely broke even after expenses, but publicly brags about the big number.
posted by zachlipton at 12:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Trumpjugend would at least have the virtue of being more honest.
posted by Archelaus at 12:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Seth Meyers nails it on A Closer Look:

[A lot of Americans] just don't love the two choices. I mean, do you pick someone who's under federal investigation for using a private email server, or do you pick someone who called Mexicans rapists, claimed the president was born in Kenya, proposed banning an entire religion from entering the US, mocked a disabled reporter, said John McCain wasn't a war hero because he was captured, attacked the parents of a fallen soldier, bragged about committing sexual assault, was accused by 12 women of committing sexual assault, said some of those women weren't attractive enough for him to sexually assault, said more countries should get nukes, said he'd force the military to commit war crimes, said a judge was biased because his parents were Mexican, said women should be punished for having abortions, incited violence at his rallies, called global warming a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese, called for his opponent to be jailed, declared bankruptcy six times, bragged about not paying income taxes, stiffed his contractors and employees, lost a billion dollars in one year, scammed customers at his fake university, bought a six foot tall painting of himself with money from his fake foundation, has a trial for fraud coming up in November, insulted an opponent's looks, insulted an opponent's wife's looks, and bragged about grabbing women by the pussy. How do you choose?

posted by kirkaracha at 12:03 PM on November 3, 2016 [127 favorites]

This is kind of a funny article from the guy who bought the domain trump.org

WaPo link
posted by waitangi at 12:03 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

The Economist enthusiastically endorses Clinton
"In another way, she is well-suited to the task. Herding bills through Congress to the point of signing requires a tolerance for patient negotiating and a command of sleep-inducing detail. Though it has been hard to hear above the demand to “lock her up”, Mrs Clinton has campaigned for an open, optimistic country. She can take heart from the fact that, outside Washington, there is more bipartisanship and problem-solving than most Americans realise, and from the fact that popular pessimism has far overshot reality. Around 80% of Trump supporters say that, for people like them, America is worse than it was 50 years ago. That is false: half a century ago 6m households lacked a flushing lavatory. It is also a most un-American way to see the world. The time is ripe for a rebound."
Excellent.
posted by zarq at 12:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [58 favorites]

So like a lot of things about him, Trump's publicly-claimed income is gross.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

Melania just plagiarized Trump's second wife Marla Maples. Here's the only Google results for "if you could dream it, you could become it"

who plagiarized frank-n-furter: "Don't dream it, be it."
posted by j_curiouser at 12:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Don't dick punch. Vote!

I can only hear this in Obama's serious tone of voice.
posted by Taft at 12:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Don't dick punch. Vote!

Surely, "Don't dick punch, ballot punch!"
posted by Mayor West at 12:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

who plagiarized frank-n-furter: "Don't dream it, be it."

"In just seven days, we can make the president a wo-o-o-o-man."

(So the math is off by one day—sue me!)
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:14 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

Their banner reads YOUTH FOR TRUMP.

"For" in the Molochian sense? YOUTH FOR THE YOUTH GOD!!

(No, wait. That's Peter Thiel.)
posted by octobersurprise at 12:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

As unlikely as it seems, maybe a lot of good will come out of this FBI leak nonsense. Maybe being personally targeted by the bloated, out of control National Security State will galvanize a President Clinton into finally moving to reign in this monster that's been growing since 9/11. I know at the very least that the FBI's going to have an unpleasant couple of years, and if Hillary has any guts (and I think she does) there's going to be a massive purge there.
posted by indubitable at 12:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

The most recent This American Life episode dives deep into how and why islamophobia and anti-immigration became the main plank of the Republican Party. It predates Trump obviously. They use St. Cloud MN as an example of a place where simple fear of the other locally get stoked by operatives of a national movement of Tea Party afflilated hate groups who provide all this false info under the guise of a think tank. It can be a little heavy on the Hugs For Facists but the quotes from these regular people expressing really amazingly dumb views is eye opening.

Of course this being TAL you have to skip through a bunch of horrifically unfunny musical theater about Paul Ryan to get to the good reporting. Thanks 2016!
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Well I just heard from my delightful, (and I mean it,) other Utah family. The military line about why they voted McNuggets, rather than Hillary, is that if workers out at Hill Air Force Base used private email, they would be in jail. I mentioned Rumsfeld/Cheney, Rice, Powell using this and that it apparently is how it was done for several administrations. I also mentioned it was used more than Hillary, and the deleted emails were in the millions, and yeah, they voted the line that came closest to their personal experience.
posted by Oyéah at 12:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I can't vote in your election so I'll handle the dick punching

we've got a brand new dance it's called punch his ass right in the dick
posted by mannequito at 12:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

Fixed: "In just seven days, AND SEVEN NIGHTS! we can make the president a wo-o-o-o-man."

Dig it if you can!
posted by Gelatin at 12:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Is this good? This sounds good.

@RobbyMook
Huge news! More early votes have now been cast in Florida than in all of 2012.
posted by chris24 at 12:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

@steveschale
Yesterday in Florida: Largest number of Black voters (African American & Caribbean voters of any day so far. Roughly 55k. Share up to 12%
posted by chris24 at 12:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

Is this good? This sounds good.

I think at last count 30% of Latin@ early voters in Florida were first-time voters so, yes
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:21 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

Did U Kno? there are 33 other countries to our south with socialized medicine and better weather.

I pretty much already live in Canada (go Central New York!) where everyone has a slightly nasally accent with flat As, so it would basically be like moving in with a slightly more extreme version of my people.
posted by xyzzy at 12:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is kind of a funny article from the guy who bought the domain trump.org

After he rebuffed the initial lawyer attack:

Less than a year later, the domain name Trump.tv went up for sale via public auction, too. I also purchased that domain, this time for only $251, and redirected it to point to Trump.org.

Way to go, Trump organization.
posted by Dr Dracator at 12:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Maybe being personally targeted by the bloated, out of control National Security State will galvanize a President Clinton into finally moving to reign in this monster that's been growing since 9/11. I know at the very least that the FBI's going to have an unpleasant couple of years, and if Hillary has any guts (and I think she does) there's going to be a massive purge there.

Very unlikely. That's not how you get things done -- personal vendettas are more of a Trump characteristic. Also, fixing broken institutional culture is much harder than "round up all the bad guys and purge them." Open opponents get hard to find when you announce it's open season on them. Every President since Eisenhower has been bitterly disappointed in the performance of the CIA (at least through the period covered by Legacy of Ashes, which was published in 2008), but none of them could fix it.
posted by Coventry at 12:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

TRUMPMOTELS.COM

(also call the phone number)
posted by emjaybee at 12:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

@RobbyMook
Huge news! More early votes have now been cast in Florida than in all of 2012.

@steveschale
Yesterday in Florida: Largest number of Black voters (African American & Caribbean voters of any day so far. Roughly 55k. Share up to 12%

Y'all, remember how the battle looks hopeless but then you remember to look to the east and you see Gandalf striding onto the battlefield on Shadowfax, fucking shit up old school? Maybe this is like that, and we the people are fuckin' GANDALF. Believe.
posted by duffell at 12:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [87 favorites]

can we rein in the NSA too while we're at it or is that too much to ask
posted by stolyarova at 12:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

and we the people are fuckin' GANDALF.

Turns out eagles can vote.
posted by drezdn at 12:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

I can't vote in your election so I'll handle the dick punching

we've got a brand new dance it's called punch his ass right in the dick

New theme song of the thread, courtesy of MeFi's Own mediocre.
posted by Strange Interlude at 12:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

We also know eagles don't like Trump at all. I suspect it's the stench of Mordor on him.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

Man these Project Veritas videos are so incredibly dumb. There's a new one out that's at the top of reddit that has the Donald supporters frothing which records a staffer in Deborah Ross' (D Sen NC) campaign admitting that it was one of their trackers who got the audio of Burr (R Sen NC) joking about shooting Clinton. That's it. Like, that's normal campaign fare at this point, you try to send trackers to all your opponents events in case they say anything that could lose them an election, like, I don't know, why don't we shoot the Democratic candidate for President!
posted by DynamiteToast at 12:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Here's Melania talking about (part 2 how big of a problem it is that people, especially kids, are bullying and attacking each other on social media and saying she will focus on this if she's First Lady, a job that will be significantly easier for her since some of the worst such bullying is coming from inside the house.

We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other. We must find better ways to honor the basic goodness of our children, especially in social media. It iwll be one of the main focuses of my work if I'm privileged enough to become your first lady."

Meanwhile, here's Trump watching the speech from his plane, weirdly tuned to CNN, a network he has called on social media:

“Fraud” “Really pathetic” “totally dishonest!” “the worst” “fortunately they have bad ratings” “everyone knows they are biased” “so negative” “really bad” “bad product” “(Clinton News Network)” “little watched” “just doesn't get it” “ratings are so low - and getting worse” “Boring anti-Trump panelists, mostly losers in life!” “unwatchable” “Their news on me is fiction, a disgrace to the broadcasting industry, an arm of the Clinton campaign”
[and dozens more that I'm not going to fill this comment with]

A better way to talk to each other indeed.
posted by zachlipton at 12:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

It's removing your political opponents from government employment

More than that, it's removing government employees who are forbidden by law to engage in political activity, but are doing so, from government employment.
posted by Gelatin at 12:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [38 favorites]

I have had Cryptopsy stuck in my head all morning, and on Wednesday I will blast this all day.

And just when you thought it was too much
For the desperate masses

AND

THEN

it passes.
posted by Existential Dread at 12:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

can we rein in the NSA too while we're at it or is that too much to ask

No one got rid of Hoover until he died, despite it being an open secret that the FBI was his personal tool which he routinely used to investigate and manipulate thousands of people. He made himself useful to Attorneys General and presidents, and made sure they liked him (except for Kennedy -- they disliked and distrusted each other.) I'm sure the NSA will do the same thing with Clinton.
posted by Coventry at 12:46 PM on November 3, 2016

and we the people are fuckin' GANDALF.

Turns out eagles can vote.

The metaphor really works, because in both cases it doesn't make sense why the eagles don't come in and save the day sooner.
posted by skewed at 12:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Let's try that again: President Obama speaking in Jacksonville, Florida (CSPAN)
posted by everybody had matching towels at 12:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

*perks up

*ticks off "why didn't the eagles just fly Frodo to Mordor" on Official MeFi Derail Card
posted by saturday_morning at 12:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [75 favorites]

Can someone point me to the graph / chart from one of the recent previous threads that shows that Trump's polling hasn't grown past his base? I can't find it, but it was basically showing his support waxing and waning but staying around ˜38% throughout?
posted by Mchelly at 12:53 PM on November 3, 2016

The metaphor really works, because in both cases it doesn't make sense why the eagles don't come in and save the day sooner.

Because the Eye of Bannon™ would see them. Duh.
posted by Talez at 12:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Charles Pierce: With 6 Days Left, a Single Theme Unites the Republican Party: Extortion. Something is indeed shakin' on Shakedown Street.
posted by homunculus at 12:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Because the Eye of Bannon™ would see them. Duh.

Nah, it's too busy being looking for all the ~~Jews~~ Dwarves.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

> FBI launches internal investigation into its own Twitter account

The FBI Is Self-Destructing at the Worst Possible Moment. And it was a long time coming.
posted by homunculus at 12:57 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

Ha ha ha. FBI launches internal investigation into its own Twitter account — An FBI tweet may have crossed the line.
posted by Coventry at 12:57 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Part of the problem with fixing FBI or other law enforcement and investigative agencies is that popular as well as political culture has made them largely anathema to many liberals as career choices, so the culture inside the agencies of police forces is going to be more conservative by lacking diversity of alternative voices. Liberal scorn alone isn't going to fix the problem nor address the needs the agencies fill. Demanding higher standards is of course a good thing, but if those standards require people to act better than most people normally would, then those standards are going to be hard to uphold in institutions lacking diversity.
posted by gusottertrout at 12:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other. We must find better ways to honor the basic goodness of our children, especially in social media.

First Mod is tough gig, Melania. Are you sure you're ready for that?
posted by octobersurprise at 12:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [24 favorites]

Anybody concerned about similarities to Brexit should go listen to the BuzzFeed podcast from yesterday; No One Knows Anything, episode: "Mr. Brexit"

They delve into the slight similarities and the vast differences between the Brexit campaign and the Donald Trump campaign. It is only 16 minutes and I think will put your mind at rest.

I have been completely sure since the RNC that Hillary Rodham Clinton has this in the bag. I've never waivered from that. However....I did find myself hyperventilating the other day when I heard a clip of "No you're the puppet. You're the puppet." being played in the intro of the NYTimes podcast. Just for a second I had the nightmarish thought of that man being our President and talking to other leaders. Not going to happen. But how terrible that it is this close. Every gooddamn state in the USA should be 20 points ahead for Clinton.

Speaking of podcasts, last night someone on the Blue commented about Matt Yglesias on The Weeds, wondering if his uptalking bothered anybody else. Holy Hell. The first time I listened to that podcast I was in stunned disbelief. It is the most bizarre thing I've ever heard. How are we the listeners supposed to take him seriously? I've gotten used to it, but ever time I hear him I wonder why no one has pulled him aside and told him, "You are professional, well-informed adult. Why would you want to sound like an obnoxious teenager? Stop that uptalking at once! Pull yourself together, man."
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 12:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

H. Clinton and Bernie are going to be at Walnut Creek amphitheater in Raleigh tonight. I really wish I could go. They must be expecting a massive crowd because that is a big venue.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 1:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

First Mod is tough gig, Melania. Are you sure you're ready for that?

She'll have the biggest, most luxurious, gold-plated banhammer.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Part of the problem with fixing FBI or other law enforcement and investigative agencies is that popular as well as political culture has made them largely anathema to many liberals as career choices, so the culture inside the agencies of police forces is going to be more conservative by lacking diversity of alternative voices.

A lot of their barriers to entry are explicitly anti-liberal, left over from back in the day when radical hippies and Communists were considered the greatest threat to our nation. They are the way they are by design.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]

The Rude Pundit: Republicans Love Power But Not Democracy

What all this has done is make the nutzoids and dumbshits that make up the GOP voter coalition completely mistrust that democracy works. If everything the opposition does is a cataclysmic event ready to bring on an apocalyptic nightmare of zombies, terrorists, and government health care, then obviously you'd believe that elections are rigged and evil agents are trying to steal your lovely country from your innocent hands. Donald Trump has succeeded in working his followers into a fever pitch by promising them shit that he couldn't do even if he was elected and telling them that if he loses, it's only because bankers or someone are working against him. What the fuck are they gonna think about democracy if their Trump godhead doesn't ascend to his White House iron throne?

And the other obvious outcome here is to say that the only way government can function is if one party completely controls it. That's cool when your party is in power. But it ain't very cool when your party is in the minority and out of the presidency. Then we get to widespread suppression of dissent and other nasty things.

Democracy is supposed to ensure that people have to compromise. Once that ends, once even the chance of that ends, which is what Republicans are doing, then democracy is fuckin' doomed, man.

posted by homunculus at 1:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

biggest, most luxurious, gold-plated banhammer.
as opposed to bean-plated jaja
posted by Namlit at 1:03 PM on November 3, 2016

do you pick someone who's under federal investigation for using a private email server

Interesting factoid: I know someone who is a long time lawyer in the Justice Dept., and whose job for years has been doing, then supervising at a high level, many criminal federal prosecutions. S/He says that the likelihood of anything ever coming out of the email inquiry is zero, that the case has always been unprosecutable. Because to be a chargeable case, there'd have to be knowing delivery of classified material to someone else, and that has never, ever been what this investigation was about.

You'd never know this by our idiot media coverage, making the FBI molehill a mountain while whistling at the mounting evidence of tax evasion/gimmickry, illegal foreign campaign solicitations, long term fraud at Trump U, major fiduciary violations at the Trump Foundation, sexual assaults both major and minor, and more. Plus the enormous conflicts of interest between Trump's business interests and potential presidential duties (on the cold day in hell he got that office.)

The only thing as ironic as this is Trump's ability to draw evangelical and Xian support -- a man with no religious affiliations, who has broken virtually every commandment, and who hasn't even consistently supported core issues like abortion -- versus Clinton's inability, despite being a fairly model Xian.
posted by bearwife at 1:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]

In addition to Clinton, Obama is stumping hard for FL Senate candidate Patrick Murphy.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 1:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

The preliminary employment requirements for the FBI include a polygraph examination; a test for illegal drug use; credit and records checks; and extensive interviews with former and current colleagues, neighbors, friends, professors, etc.

Below are specific elements that will automatically disqualify job candidates for employment with the FBI. These include:

Default on a student loan insured by the U.S. Government
Use of marijuana within the three (3) years preceding the date of their application for employment, regardless of the location of use (even if marijuana usage is legal in the candidate’s home state).
Use of any illegal drug, other than marijuana, within the ten (10) years preceding the date of the application for employment.

No poors, no druggies, nobody with sketchy friends, and nobody who gets nervous when hooked up to a lie detector
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

FBI or other law enforcement and investigative agencies is that popular as well as political culture has made them largely anathema to many liberals as career choices

I see showbiz_liz got to this before I did, but yeah - this is not just self-selection, but also impediments in the form of hiring criteria and the security clearance process. I think it more serves to show preference for the unimaginative rule-follower than any real left-right axis, but I think you unquestionably see a consequence of only ever hiring people who have never encountered the enforcement arm of the legal system on a personal level.
posted by phearlez at 1:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

using Excel's, er, somewhat dubious random number generator

Ever since Office 2007, Excel has been using Mersenne Twister to generate PRNs.
posted by Slothrup at 1:08 PM on November 3, 2016

"Marco Rubio said friends don't let friends vote for con artists. Guess what he did a few days ago! Voted for Donald Trump! Guess Marco Rubio doesn't have any friends." - Obama, just now
posted by everybody had matching towels at 1:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [161 favorites]

DemoCAT, surely. I mean come on let's at least TRY people.

You are wrong it's Demeowcrat

Demoristocrats!
posted by Kabanos at 1:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

In the Charlie Pierce article that homunculus links, he quotes the NYPost as saying this:

Cops and firefighters were blown away by Clinton's hubris in planning the fireworks display, which would eclipse the shower of blazing sparkles that preceded the balloon drop at July's Democratic National Convention. "It's a little presumptuous of her to plan on winning. I guess she put in for this before Friday," one NYPD detective said. Others said the actual election results could put a damper on things, but one firefighter raised the specter of a 2000-style recount and added, "So what's she going to do, put the fireworks on ice?" Another source wondered: "If she loses, will she take it over to the East Side and sell it to Trump for half-price?" A retired firefighter said the FDNY' s "rank and file is outraged they are being forced to do political work…This will make it seem like the firefighters endorsed Hillary," the source said.

You'll have to insert your own Post-esque line breaks to recreate their characterstic drip-drip-drip of nothingburger with zilchpickle terribleness, but shocking, I know, that the Hillary's people have engaged in appropriate planning for a major campaign event, including establishing safeguards and protocols for having fire protection from the FDNY.

Any chance they made sure their fireworks provider pulled permits, too?????????????????
posted by joyceanmachine at 1:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Marco Rubio said friends don't let friends vote for con artists . . .

I will miss our President's sick burns. I hope HRC keeps her Twitter team around with aspirations to keep her aiming at that exalted level of takedown.
posted by bearwife at 1:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

A friend of mine will be covering Hillary HQ on election night, and I just told him about the fireworks. He is so excited.
posted by uncleozzy at 1:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Adam Gopnik: Why Trump Is Different

Call them what you will—populist authoritarianism or extreme-right-wing ethno-nationalism—the active agents within a Trump speech and energizing a Trump rally are always the same: the worship of power in its most brutal and authoritarian forms (thus his admiration for Vladimir Putin and for the Chinese Communists who assaulted the protesters at Tiananmen Square); the reduction of all relations to dominance contests; the contempt for rational argument; the perpetual unashamed storm of lies; the appeal to hysterically exaggerated fears of outsiders; and, above all, the relentless sense of ethnic grievance that can be remedied only by acts of annihilating revenge. His is the ideology not of democratic patriotism but of a narrow nationalism alone—the glorification of the nation, and the exaggeration of its humiliations, with violence promised to its enemies, at home and abroad; and a promise of vengeance for those who feel themselves disempowered by history. He will “level the playing field” with the terrorist spectre of isis by forcing soldiers to commit war crimes; he will not merely kill our enemies but annihilate their families. His platform is resentment and his program is revenge, and that is an ideology with many faces and one name. This is fascism with an American face.

...

One reading of Trump should be avoided—indeed, repelled—for the sake of intellectual integrity. It has become almost an essential piety even among his opponents that a special pathos clings to his supporters, who know not what they do, but are themselves victims of forces larger than they. The misérables of the postmodern period, the dispossessed of the globalized planetary era, his supporters are not really the “racists” they are thought to be—and if they indulge in the blind hatred of his message it is only because their alienation from mainstream America, and their increasing hopelessness in the face of job losses and meaningful occupation, makes them vulnerable to a demagogic ideology. They embrace from ignorance and misplaced hope rather than from shared hatreds.

...

Even if the correlation were minimally robust, the notion that belonging to the largely fluid category “the white working class” puts one in special possession of virtue—a notion that still makes Chris Matthews’s eyes moist every night—is, in a polyglot, cosmopolitan country, absurd. The white working class built unions and raised children and fought wars—and lynched black people and supported Joe McCarthy. Sometimes those attitudes could be held together in a single personality. No group is invulnerable to bad causes. We should have no hesitation in calling deplorable attitudes deplorable—without imagining that those who hold them are deplorable people. They can be wrong without being bad. And, in any case, it would be good to balance the endless hand-wringing about the pathos of the Trump voter with some countervailing sense of the pathos, still larger, of the Clinton voter: the Latina motel cleaner in Nevada or the single mother in Brooklyn. No category of voters in a democracy is especially virtuous, none immune from evil.

...

The mistake in the analysis lies deeper, perhaps—in the assumption that only a strange and traumatic sequence can have made this happen. What can be causing Trumpism? We ask, and seek for an earthquake, or at least a historical oddity or a series of highly specific causal events. The more tragic truth is that the Trumpian view of the world is the default view of mankind. Bigotry, fanaticism, xenophobia are the norms of human life—the question is not what causes them but what uncauses them, what happens in the rare extended moments that allow them to be put aside, when secular values of toleration and pluralism replace them.

posted by theodolite at 1:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]

You'll have to insert your own Post-esque line breaks to recreate their characterstic drip-drip-drip of nothingburger with zilchpickle terribleness, but shocking, I know, that the Hillary's people have engaged in appropriate planning for a major campaign event, including establishing safeguards and protocols for having fire protection from the FDNY.

Every one of those quoted cops and firefighters comes off as a screaming asshole.
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]

asshole misogynist fascist cops how weird
posted by entropicamericana at 1:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [42 favorites]

a screaming asshole.

The visual that inspired has me googling cat gifs, thanks.
posted by Mooski at 1:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

6 ways Trump could win 270 electoral votes

It's a more click-baiting than insightful CNN piece interesting largely because in every way he needs Florida. Oh, Donnie'll be hotter 'en a two-peckered billy goat in a pepper patch if he loses America's wang.
posted by octobersurprise at 1:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Every one of those quoted cops and firefighters comes off as a screaming asshole.

Someone get Roiland on the phone, they need to re-render this scene but change the image for the sun.
posted by phearlez at 1:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think it more serves to show preference for the unimaginative rule-follower than any real left-right axis, but I think you unquestionably see a consequence of only ever hiring people who have never encountered the enforcement arm of the legal system on a personal level.

Yes, it certainly isn't a wholly neutral context for hiring as showbiz_liz reasonaly pointed out, but i do think of it more in line with the phearlez's quote above, though maybe even without even the "unimaginative" part. It certainly may be time to change the some of those guidelines a bit when pot is legal in some states and student loans can be oppressive, but trying to find people who will uphold the law and respect the rules and who are more open to leftish values won't be easy even with that given the tension between a national intelligence gathering service and many of the values of those on the left. The same too could be said for other branches of law enforcement too varying degrees.
posted by gusottertrout at 1:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

The visual that inspired has me googling cat gifs, thanks.

When you think about it an asshole's scream is just a really loud fart.
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

When you think about it

can't make me
posted by theredpen at 1:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

I said it in a thread two weeks ago or so, I'll say it again - if my old recurring nightmares about nuclear war come back between now and Tuesday I will develop the ability to teleport myself to Trump's presence through sheer will and I will punch him in the dick.

So you plan on punching a dick in the dick?
posted by CottonCandyCapers at 1:22 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Because the next four years are going to be nothing but one long, continuous, never ending, Republican temper tantrum with Clinton exerting every erg of political energy and will she can muster merely to hold the status quo.

It's still going to be something like ten thousand times better than the alternative.

No matter how hard Republicans try to hold back time, progress continues. Men now marry men, women marry women, minorities are becoming the majority, a black man is president, and a woman is going to succeed him. Things will continue to get better.
posted by pracowity at 1:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

Republicans are now vowing Total War.

But as he has in so many ways, Donald Trump takes every ugly impulse Republicans have and turns it up to 11, and just about the entire party follows him down. So now they are making it very clear that from literally the day Hillary Clinton is inaugurated, they will wage total war on her. There will be no rule or norm or standard of decency they won’t flout if it gets them a step closer to destroying her, no matter what the collateral damage.

It’s important to understand that strong institutions are what separate strong democracies from weak ones. In a strong democracy, one party can’t come into power and just lock up its opponents. It can’t turn the country’s law enforcement agencies into a partisan tool to destroy the other party. It can’t say that the courts will function only at its pleasure. We have the world’s most stable system not just because there aren’t tanks in the streets on election day, but because we have institutions that are strong enough to restrain the venality of individual men and women. And now, Republicans are not even pretending that those institutions should be impartial and transcend partisanship. They’re saying, if we can use them to destroy our opponents, we will.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [53 favorites]

So you plan on punching a dick in the dick?

Dickception?
posted by Talez at 1:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

In 2012, the Romney campaign had approval from the city of Boston to shoot fireworks over Boston Harbor. Turned out to be no need for that (and Tagg drove Mitt home to Belmont).
posted by adamg at 1:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

"Perhaps that's why we don't appreciate Clinton's strengths as a candidate. She's winning a process that evolved to showcase stereotypically male traits using a stereotypically female strategy. And it's working."

Excellent point. There is so much sexism baked into our expectations of politicians and presidents, starting with celebrating the "blunt talking, piss people off, DGAF" attitude.

Take that classic, moronic question -- "Who would you rather have a beer with?" (And ignore for now the fact that neither George W. Bush nor Trump drink beer.)

Listen to how different this sounds: "Who would you rather have a glass of wine with?"
posted by msalt at 1:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

6 ways Trump could win 270 electoral votes

ಠ_ಠ
posted by zarq at 1:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

I would totally have a beer with Hillary.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [60 favorites]

My standard: "Who would you rather have a beer without bitching about?"
posted by Rykey at 1:38 PM on November 3, 2016

Hasn't Hillary been to like half a dozen breweries on the trail? Some photos from one of them.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 1:38 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

though maybe even without even the "unimaginative" part

I waffled on including that, as I have known plenty of nice FBI agents and counted a few as friends, and don't want to slight them. But I left it because I think it does truly describe the general preference the system shows towards people who have not stepped even slightly outside any of the cultural norms. It's not a perfect exclusion by any means but I think it's a general truism when you look at the whole secret clearance scheme, and the FBI criteria goes even beyond basic TS guidelines. I guess you could use "uncomplicated," but that seems to be similarly judgmental-sounding in a different manner.

See also the problem with the fact that our high court never gets people with defense experience seated. There's an entire half of the adversarial system who never gets their experience reflected from the bench, and that's fucked up.
posted by phearlez at 1:38 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Can't we leave the Poles out of this?

entropicamericana: they're still pretty touchy about that time kerry forgot poland

Yeah, they are. Most of them. All of them.
posted by chonus at 1:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I just can't fathom that he's actually made it this far, to mere days away.

The worst thing is knowing if it was Biden v Trump this election would be 1980 but with the colors reversed.
posted by Talez at 1:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Can we please try not to use the word "purge" to describe justifiable dismissal of federal employees on the basis of Hatch Act violations and dissemination of confidential information? Chris Christie was using "purge" just months ago at the RNC to describe firing government employees on the basis of ideology. What Clinton would be doing at the FBI would be done on the basis of breaking agency rules and federal law. It's a very different thing and calling it a "purge" gives it nasty connotations.
posted by sallybrown at 1:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [37 favorites]

Fuck beer. Who do you want to have $2 frozen margarita with at happy hour, this is the true question. Hilary would never bogart all the chips n' salsa. She would order a plate of nachos and let the rest of the table eat most of them. And everyone around the table would cackle drunkenly as the tequila kicked in.
posted by emjaybee at 1:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]

Don't dick punch. Vote!

I reserve the right to do both, good sir
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Oh, Eric.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I hope she has many beers and many drinks over the next eight years, and I hope she gets to have at least half of them with people she likes.
posted by Mooski at 1:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Oh, Eric.

Ugh, these fuckin guys. You can marginalize horrific assholes like Duke with out resorting to extrajudicial killings. The world is not your private safari hunting ground, Eric.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:44 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

My father's the first Republican who's gone out and said, 'Listen, what's happened to the African-American community is horrible and I'm going to take care of it.'"

Seems like there was at least one other famous Republican that took care of some horrible things that happened to the African-American community.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]

Ugh, these fuckin guys. You can marginalize horrific assholes like Duke with out resorting to extrajudicial killings. The world is not your private safari hunting ground, Eric.

Just once I'd like someone interviewing these assholes go "what the fuck is wrong with you?"
posted by Talez at 1:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]

You can marginalize horrific assholes like Duke with out resorting to extrajudicial killings.

Well, if his Dad became president it wouldn't necessarily be extrajudicial for long.
posted by Coventry at 1:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Regardless of who's voting, the more early votes there are, the less chance there is of shenanigans on Tuesday, whether just from long lines and shitty-slow processes or from outside interference.

Every one of those quoted cops and firefighters comes off as a screaming asshole.

I'm sure the Post has them filed in the contact book under "Assholes, NYPD" and "Assholes, FDNY" for just these kinds of situations. Cowards, all of them.

It reminds me of that piece in the Grauniad about the aftermath of 9/11, covering both Senator Clinton's immediate support and concern for first responders, and her efforts to get funding for the Ground Zero workers who developed health problems, against resistance from the Bush administration.

There's something galling about the narrative of influence-peddling when so many groups have benefitted from HRC's work and either don't have any influence of their own, or do so and still retain a toxic institutional affection for an authoritarian bullshit artist. It's as if a woman isn't allowed to earn gratitude.
posted by holgate at 1:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

Just once I'd like someone interviewing these assholes go "what the fuck is wrong with you?"

In this case, it was the interviewer who started it, so not much chance of that happening.
posted by zachlipton at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016

The metaphor really works, because in both cases it doesn't make sense why the eagles don't come in and save the day sooner.

They didn't come in earlier because of the Nazgul. Same thing in Lord of the Rings.
posted by Celsius1414 at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

> I think the best odds for getting back the non-deplorable part of the working class would be to put up a candidate more like Sanders

Is there anyone you have your eye on for 2024?
posted by The corpse in the library at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016

"My father's the first Republican who's gone out and said, 'Listen, what's happened to the African-American community is horrible and I'm going to take care of it.'"

Psst! Eric! Lincoln!
posted by Sys Rq at 1:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

It's as if a woman isn't allowed

Yeah, you can pretty much end the sentence there.
posted by Mooski at 1:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

Question for the stat-heads among you:

So, a poll just came out showing Clinton up by +1 in Arizona. Before anyone gets too excited, other polls over the same period show Trump up, so let's assume for the moment it's an outlier.

However, when that poll -- and that poll only -- was plugged into the 538 model, Clinton's overall chances of winning went DOWN ever so slightly. How is that possible?

PLEASE don't tell me it's because 538 sucks or Nate Silver wants clicks or whatever your personal opinion about the site is, I've already heard it. I am literally asking, solely and only, why mathematically would a model move in that direction after being given that poll?

The answer is that nobody knows. If you really want to drive yourself crazy trying to figure it out, all of 538's updates are here. The number to pay attention to is the red/blue ones on the far right - that's 538's adjusted poll estimate based on the pollster's history (and whatever else Nate wanted to throw in). To wit:

-Trump +7 in Utah? Clinton's chances are down .1%!
-Trump +11 in Utah and +16 in Kentucky? Clinton's chances down .2%!
-Tie in New Hampshire? Clinton's chances up .2%!
-Trump +13 in Texas and +10 in Utah? Clinton's chances down 1.1%!

One suggestion was that there's a certain stochastic element here because they're running these Monte Carlo simulations 10,000 times every time they get new data. So the .1% changes are really just random noise. I guess that could be part of it.

The real issue - one that Wang calls "double-counting" - is that Silver has two things baked into his calculations: (1) all state polls are correlated with each other and (2) all polls are adjusted with an overall trend. Did you catch that? Whenever we get a new state poll, he adjusts all of the other polls twice. Let's say the 538 model estimates that Wisconsin's at Clinton +6. And last week, Minnesota was at +8. If we get a poll today that says Minnesota is at +4, that updates Wisconsin in two ways: first, Nate's model says "well Minnesota and Wisconsin are pretty similar, so if Minnesota's at +4, then Wisconsin's probably closer to +4 than we thought." THEN, his model says, "Oh also the trend in Minnesota is down four points last week, so Wisconsin must be down too." And it further reduces Clinton's lead in Wisconsin.

See why that's double-dipping? If the states are correlated, then you assume the new information in Minnesota is giving us up-to-date information about Wisconsin. If you don't assume the states are correlated, then the trend in Minnesota is telling us something about the trend in Wisconsin. Nate's model does both. That's why his model looks so volatile - because every new poll is counted twice, once in the state-by-state correlations and once in the overall trend-line.

Why do they do this? Because Nate Silver has apparently never heard of William of Ockham.
posted by one_bean at 1:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

Oh, Eric.

I'll take "the Trumpling doth protest too much" for 200, Alex.

"Hmm... okay, so I've heard that people are kind of touchy about the whole white supremacy and Klan connection to my dad. Soooo let me think... I guess I should say we should assassinate those people? That sounds like something someone might think if they didn't like Klan members. I'll go with that. Assassination! Yeah, that's the ticket!"
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

> No poors, no druggies, nobody with sketchy friends, and nobody who gets nervous when hooked up to a lie detector

Don't forget mandatory undergraduate degree - they won't even look at your application otherwise, as it's an absolute requirement.
posted by MysticMCJ at 1:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Here's an, ahem, poll declaring Trump the victor.
posted by cottoncandybeard at 1:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

(1) all state polls are correlated with each other and (2) all polls are adjusted with an overall trend. Did you catch that? Whenever we get a new state poll, he adjusts all of the other polls twice.

That's not necessarily broken. Surely you can make a fully probabilistic hierarchical model which captures both those behaviors. (Not that I know anything about how the 538 model.)
posted by Coventry at 1:58 PM on November 3, 2016

ERIC TRUMP: I...disavow David Duke.

KELLYANNE CONWAY: Good, good. Keep going

ET: David Duke is wrong, and...bad.

KC: Yes. You're doing great

ET: I denounce him. I denounce him until the blood comes

KC: Ok hold up
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]

Re. the FBI, President Clinton would have no good options. If she cleans house, it'll look like a vengeful purge or a craven attempt at stifling ongoing investigations. If she doesn't, she'll be dogged by a rogue law enforcement agency for her entire presidency, eternally turning up new potentially pertinent evidence whenever convenient. Obama could do it as a lame duck but probably won't.
posted by theodolite at 2:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I like how they contacted David Duke about the Eric Trump quote and he was like "good one, I'm in the middle of a project, call me in an hour." Like...what project? A shoebox diorama of Great Moments in Segregation?
posted by zutalors! at 2:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [49 favorites]

I think the best idea is to clean house in the FBI as soon as possible. Gives people the most time to forget about it before the next election.

She basically has to do it. They'll be trying to destroy her the entire term if she doesn't. It would be a lot better if Obama did it, and he should... but I agree he probably won't.
posted by Mitrovarr at 2:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

It reminds me of that piece in the Grauniad about the aftermath of 9/11, covering both Senator Clinton's immediate support and concern for first responders, and her efforts to get funding for the Ground Zero workers who developed health problems, against resistance from the Bush administration.

This is the thing that has galled me about 9/11 for the past 15 years - that a staggeringly huge number of politicians, and citizens, have no compunction about exploiting the worst day of my life for their own sentiment-filled tributes, but when it comes to actually making good on "supporting the troops", like Hillary is trying to do, they're all "fuck that noise".

I mean, I've gotten used to it, but it still galls.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]

> If she cleans house, it'll look like a vengeful purge or a craven attempt at stifling ongoing investigations.

She is already viewed as vengeful and corrupt by a certain faction who have basically committed to treating her as such. Optics be damned - if this doesn't happen under President Obama, I don't see much of an excuse for it to not happen under her administration.
posted by MysticMCJ at 2:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Who wants to put money down that some faction in the FBI tries to start an investigation Wednesday on whether Clinton rigged the election?
posted by C'est la D.C. at 2:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

what project?

Tweaking? A project that needs tweaking?
posted by DynamiteToast at 2:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

>>(1) all state polls are correlated with each other and (2) all polls are adjusted with an overall trend. Did you catch that? Whenever we get a new state poll, he adjusts all of the other polls twice.

>That's not necessarily broken. Surely you can make a fully probabilistic hierarchical model which captures both those behaviors. (Not that I know anything about how the 538 model.)

I don't think it's necessarily an inherently bad idea, but I suspect the model is over-correcting. A big part of the reason for this is that a lot of states are harder to poll than others, so a state with very swingy polling will wind up affecting other states, even when those other states have very stable polling.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:10 PM on November 3, 2016

Like...what project?

oh, you know. stuff.
posted by entropicamericana at 2:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Also the "good one." So casual for a death threat. I guess he's used to them.
posted by zutalors! at 2:12 PM on November 3, 2016

She is already viewed as vengeful and corrupt by a certain faction who have basically committed to treating her as such.

At this point, if Jesus Christ appeared in the skies above Washington at the moment of Clinton's inauguration and declared 'Here is my daughter, in whom I am well pleased', the entire GOP would mass-convert to Hinduism.
posted by Devonian at 2:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [86 favorites]

The FBI can do whatever they want. I am certain that Preet Bharara isn't going to go along with their crap.
posted by mikelieman at 2:14 PM on November 3, 2016

She is already viewed as vengeful and corrupt by a certain faction who have basically committed to treating her as such.

If someone is starting from the axiom, "Hillary Clinton is EVIL.". There's not a whole lot of room for rational discussion of her stance on the issues.
posted by mikelieman at 2:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

If there's anything we should take away from this election, it's that the Gish gallop works. Fuck optics. Do what you want. The Republicans have left the Supreme Court with eight people, and no one cares.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 2:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

At this point, if Jesus Christ appeared in the skies above Washington at the moment of Clinton's inauguration and declared 'Here is my daughter, in whom I am well pleased', the entire GOP would mass-convert to Hinduism.

Wahhabism, surely. They're halfway there.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Are we still giving yard sign updates?

They've sprouted up here in the past week. While there have been a few Trump signs for a while now, those have multiplied, and I've been pleased to see Hillary represented as well.

But twice I've done a double-take on seeing one for Michelle Beckman. (Nearby city council, I think.)
posted by jaruwaan at 2:20 PM on November 3, 2016

I'd like to reiterate one one of the quotes theodolite pulled from that Adam Gopnik article, because it rings so true to me (emphasis and abridgement mine):

The mistake in the analysis lies deeper, perhaps—in the assumption that only a strange and traumatic sequence can have made this happen. What can be causing Trumpism? . . . The more tragic truth is that the Trumpian view of the world is the default view of mankind. Bigotry, fanaticism, xenophobia are the norms of human life—the question is not what causes them but what uncauses them, what happens in the rare extended moments that allow them to be put aside, when secular values of toleration and pluralism replace them.<>

posted by ianhattwick at 2:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

On the main road near me there are two McCain/Palin signs far enough apart that they don't appear to be just one person's yard signs. I'm not sure if it's someone being Dadaist, some poor Republican is engaging in wishful thinking, or, I actually live in an area where the fabric of space and time is broken. Sapphire and Steel have been assigned.
posted by merocet at 2:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

The Republicans have left the Supreme Court with eight people, and no one cares.

Not only have people basically accepted that there will be no new justice this year, but now the goalposts have been moved such that you have several Republicans (Cruz, Burr, etc) saying maybe let's just wait until the next Republican president....

(Even if the GOP retains the Senate, I still hope this view remains enough of a minority that a handful of Republicans + the Dems can get a justice confirmed, but ugh)
posted by thefoxgod at 2:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

THR - Critic's Notebook: Melania Trump's Campaign Speech Goes From Vapid to Unintentionally Hilarious

In her first campaign speech since the convention, the aspiring First Lady urged voters to "treat each other with respect and kindness," as the nation burst into hysterical laughter.

A mere five days before the election, Melania Trump emerged from hiding to deliver her first campaign speech since the Republican National Convention. Considering how well that one went, it's not surprising she waited this long.

This speech, at least, seemed to be wholly original, although you wouldn't have been surprised if she had begun by saying "four score and seven years ago." On the other hand, it was so vapidly platitudinous and basic that if her speechwriters were cribbing from anyone, it was Dr. Seuss.
...
The proceedings became truly surreal when she informed the crowd that social media "can have a bad side" (really, Melania, you think?) and that "our culture has gotten too mean and too rough." It made you wonder if she actually knows who she's married to. She added that she would "work hard to improve everyday life for women." (Just a suggestion, Melania, but the best way to start would be by keeping them far away from your husband.)

Delivering the absurdly ironic sound bite that will have comedy writers working overtime the next few days — you can be sure that Laura Benanti will be reprising her impression for Stephen Colbert — Melania declared, "We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree."

That is, she forgot to add, unless Donald gets elected.

posted by zachlipton at 2:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Of course she has to clean house at the FBI. This isn't normal politics where there are measured reactions and she could reasonably expect that in with limited response her critics would back off. They will accuse her no matter what she does.
posted by humanfont at 2:29 PM on November 3, 2016

This speech, at least, seemed to be wholly original

About that...

(((Yair Rosenberg))) Verified account
‏@Yair_Rosenberg

Melania just plagiarized Trump's second wife Marla Maples. Here's the only Google results for "if you could dream it, you could become it":
posted by stolyarova at 2:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

New polls from possible battleground states that shouldn't be battlegrounds. Trump up only 1 in Georgia post-Comey is... interesting.

@BraddJaffy
NBC/WSJ/Marist polls:

AZ
Trump 45
Clinton 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3

GA
Trump 45
Clinton 44
Johnson 8

TX
Trump 49
Clinton 40
Johnson 6
Stein 2
posted by chris24 at 2:33 PM on November 3, 2016

WSJ Republican Party to Air Spanish-Language TV Ad That Doesn’t Mention Donald Trump

The Republican National Committee on Wednesday will begin airing its first Spanish-language television ad of the 2016 election – only it doesn’t mention presidential nominee Donald Trump, who is struggling to win over Hispanic voters. The RNC is spending nearly $250,000 on the ad airing on Univision and Telemundo, in which Hispanic voters talk about the issues that attract them to the GOP: lower taxes, stronger national security and expanded school choice.

“We wanted to push out a conservative message on television that all of our candidates represent,” said Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 2:33 PM on November 3, 2016

Wolf to Chaffetz, on the women who have accused Trump of sexual assault: "You don't believe those women, is that right?"
Chaffetz: "I don't know if they're telling the truth or if they're not telling the truth... Assume that it's true and hope that it's not."

--@CCValentine_

What the what now?
posted by zachlipton at 2:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'd like to suggest not posting daily horse race tracking polls. They are garbage, and fully known to be.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary

God, can you fucking imagine?
posted by penduluum at 2:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

What the what now?

Everything Jason Chaffetz says more sense when you remember that he is both a partisan hack and a complete idiot.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

Sofia Boza, the RNC’s Hispanic media press secretary
God, can you fucking imagine?

He is working through the unimaginable.
posted by zachlipton at 2:38 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'd like to suggest not posting daily horse race tracking polls.

The NBC/WSJ state polls are not tracking polls.
posted by chris24 at 2:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I would totally have a beer with Hillary.

How Hillary Clinton beat John McCain at vodka drinking
The Telegraph - May 23, 2008

It has emerged that Mrs Clinton took on Mr McCain at downing vodka shots when the two senators were on a congressional tour of Estonia in 2004.

Rumours of the drinking contest have surfaced before, but had always been dismissed as apocryphal until the story was finally confirmed by Mrs Clinton's campaign manager, and by the owner of a restaurant in the Estonian capital of Tallinn.

Dimitri Demjanov, proprietor of Gloria's, said the two political heavyweights managed four shots each before Mrs Clinton was declared the winner, though the rules of the contest remain somewhat opaque.

Was it first past the post? Did Mr McCain demand a recount? Mr Demjanov refused to say, but when asked who was the winner he did not hesitate before answering: 'Hillary won. She stayed correct after four shots. And John McCain too.'

posted by Atom Eyes at 2:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]

In more profiles in Republican courage: Original Never-Trumper Hugh Hewitt now says he's voting Trump. As if there was ever really a question.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I kind of don't feel very much for the 'hee hee ho ho Melania soo comical'-approach, but of course:

"We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree..." is just, uh...
posted by Namlit at 2:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'd like to suggest not posting daily horse race tracking polls.

The NBC/WSJ state polls are not tracking polls.

Mea culpa, you're right. It's ABC/WaPo that does the daily tracking stuff.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

She means "people who disagree with Trump et. al. must treat Trump et. al. with respect and kindness even when Trump et. al. are being horrible."

It's similar to "What is this election missing? Empathy for Trump supporters."
posted by stolyarova at 2:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

I kind of don't feel very much for the 'hee hee ho ho Melania soo comical'-approach, but of course:

"We must treat each other with respect and kindness, even when we disagree..." is just, uh...

Cognitive dissonance in action.
posted by bananana at 2:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

How Hillary Clinton beat John McCain at vodka drinking

Now picturing Hillary Clinton as Marion Ravenwood.
posted by entropicamericana at 2:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

Cognitive dissonance in action.

Some dissonance, sure, but I'm worried about the "cognitive" here.
posted by Namlit at 2:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

sorry to beat the dead horse, but NBC/WSJ do horse-racey daily tracking, it's just not these polls
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:51 PM on November 3, 2016

Not an ex, but my best friend for awhile was a liberal Buddhist guy who loved to wear women's clothes out to queer clubs on weekends. I taught him how to do makeup and he taught me to check my privilege. Now he's a Trump loving doomsday prepper who lives in the wilds of Alaska and literally keeps a small plane gassed up out back in case the government comes to take his guns. Like, HOW IS THIS A THING THAT CAN HAPPEN.

This was approximately seven million comments back, but I've been thinking about this a lot recently because of a Facebook interaction I had with a guy who I haven't seen for about 10 years, but we used to be really good friends when we lived in the same town. He posted a rabid editorial piece to his wall that said Hillary should step down from the presidential race (yes, a week before the election) due to the "very serious" criminal investigation being conducted by the FBI. I commented with a link to the Eichenwald article in Newsweek showing that the new flurry of concern was a tempest in a teapot.

Now, this is a college-educated man. Late 40's. Reasonable person. He's a conservative Christian, but when I knew him he was fairly apolitical. I mean, be probably voted GOP, but he wasn't rabid, and he and I shared an tendency toward pacifism and a concern about the extreme soldier-worship on the rise in America. We talked about how we were troubled by the "I support President Bush and our troops" signs that popped up after the US invaded Iraq, and we both didn't like the implication that real Americans wouldn't criticize Bush's unnecessary new war. I thought he would read and respond constructively to a well-sourced article that put the latest Comey/Clinton flap in perspective.

I was wrong. He told me Newsweek was part of the liberal mainstream media and was probably being paid by the Clinton camp to cover her crimes. He think followed up with a link to a Christian author saying that no matter what happened on election day, God would still be in control and his plans would come to fruition. I told him that I wasn't really clear on what his theology of God's sovereignty had to do with the details of the FBI investigation, and that's when he told me that even if the evil woman I supported became POTUS, she wouldn't be able to thwart the will of God.

Here's the kicker. The reason I know him is that I was his pastor. He was a deacon. We worked together for more than four years in ministry. His wife was part of our worship planning committee and we met weekly. And all it took was one link to one article and he's basically telling me that I'm on the side of the devil because I'm fact-checking some rabid no-nothing editorial. I have no idea what happened to the guy. But at some point he got completely sucked into the Fox News alternate reality and it seems to have basically ruined him. I've see that happen with older folks, but was not expecting that from one of my peers.

I let it drop. I don't see how we can have a productive conversation when I can't point to any information source he will respect. If it's not overtly right-wing and pro-Trump, it's part of the corrupt liberal establishment to him.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 2:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [144 favorites]

NC Voting Report

I voted this afternoon (~4:00pm) in Raleigh (Optimist Park). Took about 15 minutes waiting in the steadily moving line, 5 minutes to get a ballot, and another 10 to fill in the ovals. Traffic was steady in and out of the building. Yesterday the process was a little quicker for my wife. Also, a couple of hours earlier today she picked up her aged mother from her room at the extended care home and helped her through curbside voting. Nana has supported Clinton enthusiastically since 2008 and she was wild to vote. When we told her last night that today was a go she said, "That's great! I thought I had to wait 'til Tuesday." Early voting made that old lady happy.

The older I get the more Yellow Dog Democrat I become. Easy to vote for Ross and Cooper and so on, especially considering the opposition. The decisions aren't difficult and I vote calmly. But voting for Clinton felt about the same to me as voting for Obama in 2008. Not just proud (like 2012), thrilled.
posted by kingless at 2:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]

Rep. Chaffetz on Clinton: "Her ability to look in the camera and just lie, lie, lie scares me more than anything"

So we need a Chaffetz Corollary to Trump's Mirror now? Anything Chaffetz says about Clinton is projecting Kellyanne Conway?
posted by Talez at 2:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I think the most important poll is one of the least scientific: the one cottoncandybear linked to an article about on AVClub. Porn site Red Tube polled "one million users": 82% male (and obviously 100% NOT scandalized by Trump's behavior toward women) and Trump was preferred by ONLY 52.1%?!!? If he can't get a higher margin from THAT demographic sub-sub-group, then he's going to get landslided (landslid?) by the rest of the electorate.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Since I'd like some favorites, let me tell you about how door knocking went today.

I've only ever previously volunteered for charity stuff that I did with work and those events were structured to accommodate corporate groups like ours. And I'm an introvert, so talking to strangers is really not my thing.

But this cycle, even in MN, I felt like just voting (I voted back in Sept.) wasn't enough, I needed to do more. I took today and tomorrow off so that I could volunteer and I'm really happy I did.

I have evening duties that meant I could only go during the day so I didn't actually talk to very many people. But I can echo others in saying that I didn't have any negative interactions. The closest one was the guy who works the night shift that we woke up. He gets it but wanted very much to go back to sleep. They put me in very blue area so I saw a lot of Bernie signs (sometimes accompanied by a Hillary sign too), a few Hillary signs and bumper stickers, but zero Trump.

At the campaign office in South Minneapolis, they tell me that they need door knockers most of all, election day is the most important day for door knocking so it will be an all-out blitz. I asked if they wanted the case of bottled water I brought for them and got a relieved sigh in answer. I asked if there was anything else and he said, "More bottled water." So if you can only donate some supplies, bottled water is what they need.

Oh also, I was able to get my ideal scenario (short of, "Actually, could you enter some data instead.") of basically being a safety escort for someone else not afraid to talk to people but not comfortable going alone. I'm going back tomorrow for more and might see if I can take election day off for more.
posted by VTX at 2:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [76 favorites]

> Vox: Why women are still voting for Trump, despite his misogyny

That is a great piece. Here's another excerpt from it:

I was very struck by the female supporter who said Trump is like the bully you want to beat up on the other bully. There is longstanding social science evidence that people with fewer resources, educational or economic, tend to look heroes — or villains even— to stand up for them. Somebody they think has some kind of power that they don’t have.

The exception is when you have a union. The one time that you don’t see that in action, at least so much, is when an area is unionized. Then, because workers have some kind of collective power, they’re not so likely to turn toward some authoritarian demagogue. They can actually imagine going up against the boss in their own collective power rather than finding somebody else to go up against the boss or someone else to throw under the wheels of the bus.

Fuck Reagan for forcibly accelerating the decline of unions.
posted by languagehat at 2:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [107 favorites]

Well, if you're waiting for oppo droppo, tomorrow may be your day. Friday has been the big day for it; Comey, Grabbing Pussy, Wikileaks. From both Kurt Eichenwald and NeverTrumper Rick Wilson. Hopefully more impact than the last couple.

@kurteichenwald
Coming up tomorrow in @Newsweek: One of my most important stories so far pertaining to the election.

@TheRickWilson
I'll say it for the 10th time:

1. Media has the two story leads.
2. Neither was the story from yesterday.
3. I don't control timing.
posted by chris24 at 2:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

My JCPL is at epic levels today. I'm avoiding 538 now but someone mentioned "66-33" to me and I'm just... taking it one breath at a time. I'm telling myself sanity arrives in less than a week. Just, thank you all for getting me through this.
posted by clever sheep at 3:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Rick Wilson has become the boy who cried Wolf Blitzer.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

In more profiles in Republican courage: Original Never-Trumper Hugh Hewitt now says he's voting Trump

If nothing else, I will give Erick Erickson credit for being true to his word. He told them all to go screw themselves and voted McMullin.
posted by octobersurprise at 3:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Need a burst of positivity? This Emily's List "Girl Club" ad is the BEST.
posted by everybody had matching towels at 3:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [23 favorites]

My JCPL is at epic levels today. I'm avoiding 538 now but someone mentioned "66-33" to me and I'm just... taking it one breath at a time.

As mentioned above, Nate has said if Nevada goes blue, her chances are 90%+ even in his model. Early voting returns from the state look very good for Dems, in a state where 60% of the vote will be early vote.
posted by chris24 at 3:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Porn site Red Tube polled "one million users": 82% male (and obviously 100% NOT scandalized by Trump's behavior toward women)

That comment appears in the AV Club article but does not appear to be supported by the "poll" in question, nor does it seem plausible to me. Plenty of people watch porn but do not support sexual assault, even those who like porn that presents a fantasy version of such. Unless I'm missing some detailed data that doesn't show up on RedTube's page about the poll. (Which is obviously not meant to be taken toooo seriously, heh)
posted by thefoxgod at 3:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

I early-voted in Prince George's County, Maryland, this afternoon. Turnout was heavy, and parking was a disaster, but inside the polling place things moved very quickly. I was in and out in about 30 minutes, complete with sticker. There were a couple sad Trump/Pence signs, but no people trying to engage anyone about that disgusting ticket. Of course, suburban Maryland is pretty dark blue...
posted by wintermind at 3:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

@juliaioffe I spent the day with Trump supporters in Tennessee. They told me the country is on the wrong path, and that the earth is flat. Literally.

All those shots from space of the big blue marble? Fake?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Unless I'm missing some detailed data that doesn't show up on RedTube's page about the poll.

I'm pretty sure that's a different kind of pole. Hiyo!
posted by kirkaracha at 3:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Vox: Third-party voters are “trading votes” with Clinton voters to defeat Trump
posted by Apocryphon at 3:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

If nothing else, I will give Erick Erickson credit for being true to his word. He told them all to go screw themselves and voted McMullin.

I really do want to be inclusive, but this group of people -- not the relatively sane/moderate NeverTrumpers like Kasich and corb, etc. but the people like Erickson and Glenn Beck who are directly responsible for the post-fact, fascist-threatened hellhole that is America, 2016 -- and who then are asking for chin scritches for voting McMullin/Clinton/None Of The Above --

Erickson: Look, you're against bleeding, and I also oppose bleeding! Let's come together and stop the bleeding!

tivalasvegas: Yeah but I seem to remember you spent the last ten years beating the body politic with a stick and that is why there is blood

Erickson: Let's move forward together! Also, Fact checkers are liberal reporters who want to be taken seriously. So instead of writing on the editorial page or the front page, they create “fact check” columns where their liberalism can be used to claim the truth for the left, even when it is a lie.

tivalasvegas:

[fake, internal dialogue]
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

Can transport workers strike by refusing to collect fares? That way they would increase financial pressure on management by keeping maintenance/fuel costs up but pushing revenue to zero, and at the same time avoid alienating customers.
posted by Coventry at 3:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

I know this is meant to be helpful, but only looking at the one poll with good news is how Romney & Friends "knew" they had it in the bag. I'm concerned that's MeFi is starting to build its own bubble and not looking at the reality of what has happened to the race

There is definitely some of this going on. To be clear, it's still possible Clinton will win in North Carolina and Florida and Nevada and Colorado and New Hampshire and get 320+ EV. Some people report encouraging early voting numbers. (I don't have the background to properly evaluate these claims since you'll also find people claiming the opposite). So perhaps that will happen.

But today we have two polls showing Trump with a lead in New Hampshire. That is a Clinton "blue wall" state. As in, the states that prevent Trump from getting to 270. Yes, if Clinton does not win New Hampshire it means Trump really and truly has a realistic path to 270. Not just a vaguely plausible map, but a realistic one.

Could he lose NH? Sure. Could he win NH and lose Nevada or North Carolina and thus the election? Sure. But this "The race being close is media spin, it's in the bag, GO TEAM!" is... wrongheaded. It's, again, how Romney was blindsided.
posted by Justinian at 3:22 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Vox: Third-party voters are “trading votes” with Clinton voters to defeat Trump

WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS IS, A PERSONALITY QUIZ? IF YOU DON'T WANT TRUMP, VOTE CLINTON. AAAAUUUUUUGH
posted by Taft at 3:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

That quote from theodolite's link, Adam Gopnik: Why Trump Is Different!

Bigotry, fanaticism, xenophobia are the norms of human life—the question is not what causes them but what uncauses them, what happens in the rare extended moments that allow them to be put aside, when secular values of toleration and pluralism replace them

This, this, this. One of my great frustrations with this election is that there's so much "how could Trump supporters support such?! what changed?!" and yes, of course, it's the normal, historical condition for human beings to be xenophobic and bigoted. It's only the last maybe 100 years we've made any sustained progress in being less so in a (somewhat) universal sense. To answer that question, one way we maintain norms of toleration and pluralism is thru norms. Norms are maintained in a lot of ways, but one way is leadership. Those with more influence and who are listened to more need to maintain those norms. Republican leaders have been not maintaining those norms and by abdicating to Trump (at best saying mealy-mouthed things like they don't like a specific thing he says but vote for him anyway), they are signaling the norms they support which lead people away from what progress we've made. So to the degree our society is supposed to reject bigotry and xenophobia (which isn't enough for many of us, but there's some), the Republican leaders have been undermining it by not clearly rejecting Trump.

They've been undermining norms for tolerance for a while in other ways for ages, of course, but remember under Bush during the Iraq war he was regularly trying to tamp down the idea that this was a clash of civilizations. Anyone remember this? The Bush administration renamed the operation because Muslim scholars pointed out that justice was the providence of God and if you didn't want this to appear to be a Holy War, then maybe they should rename. And they did. That may seem small but it matters. The Bush administration, for all its faults, did make some effort to not make it only about xenophobia, etc.

So, I am not afraid of Trump or even people who support Trump. I'm afraid that even if Clinton wins, those leaders won't stand up to the next guy like him. I don't know how we get to those norms, but certainly we make it harder by undermining them.
posted by R343L at 3:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [44 favorites]

I hope the Clinton supporters swapping votes are voting Clinton anyway.
posted by Taft at 3:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

but the people like Erickson and Glenn Beck who are directly responsible for the post-fact, fascist hellhole that is America, 2016

Oh yeah, Erickson's made a career out being only marginally better than Trump. I'm not applauding his values so much as I'm applauding his sass.
posted by octobersurprise at 3:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

WHAT DO THINK THIS IS, A PERSONALITY QUIZ? IF YOU DON'T WANT TRUMP, VOTE CLINTON. AAAAUUUUUUGHGHGHGHGHGHG

Welcome to the electoral college.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

And if you don't believe the campaign sees this as an issue, Obama will be going to New Hampshire on Monday. Obama is President of the United States. You don't send the President of the United States to a state worth 4 electoral votes on election eve if your Major Concern Button hasn't started flashing.
posted by Justinian at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

I know this is meant to be helpful, but only looking at the one poll with good news is how Romney & Friends "knew" they had it in the bag. I'm concerned that's MeFi is starting to build its own bubble and not looking at the reality of what has happened to the race

From a totally practical point of view, I don't know what difference it would make whether I was overconfident or not. At this point, I'm going to be doing everything that I can no matter who is ahead and by how much. If I freak out, I'll just do it in a more sleep-deprived state. I think my best course of action is to avoid the news and focus on GOTV until Wednesday.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Well that was a bit word salad. I blame excitement and being sick. Anyway, leadership people. Part of the problem is leadership. It really does matter that Mitch McConnell says shitty things.
posted by R343L at 3:26 PM on November 3, 2016

All those shots from space of the big blue marble? Fake?

They're all from an angle where you can't see the elephants and the turtle underneath. Duh.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

'Starship Troopers' Reboot in the Works (Exclusive)

Because what we all really need right now is more glorification of fascism from an author with well-known blind spots of racism and sexism, right?
posted by zachlipton at 3:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Or alternately, Justinian, Obama is there to help make sure Ayotte loses her seat to the Democratic challenger, Maggie Hassan. It probably has very little to do with whether Clinton wins New Hampshire at all.
posted by R343L at 3:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [51 favorites]

The original novel for Starship Troopers had Johnny Rico being Filipino, taking place in a future, while despotic and militaristic, was very egalitarian on matters of race and gender. Heinlein was also big about hiding the ethnicities of his characters in other works.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

I guess we'll find out on Tuesday, R343L.
posted by Justinian at 3:31 PM on November 3, 2016

All of this hand wringing can be rendered completely null and void with a nice win in North Carolina or, especially, Florida. So come on guys you can do it. We believe in you.
posted by Justinian at 3:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

There's now a Florida script on the phone banking website, should you wish to direct your calls there.
posted by zachlipton at 3:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

They're already striking For Real, in case that was unclear

I recognize that... Commiting to run transport services without collecting fares on election day seems like a good way to head off an injunction, that's all.

...today we have two polls showing Trump with a lead in New Hampshire

Looks like I might be visiting NH this weekend.

Because what we all really need right now is more glorification of fascism from an author

FWIW, Verhoeven's Starship Troopers satirized Heinlein pretty brutally.
posted by Coventry at 3:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

The original novel for Starship Troopers had Johnny Rico being Filipino, taking place in a future, while despotic and militaristic, was very egalitarian on matters of race and gender.

Heinlein's politics vary by who he was married to at the time.
posted by BS Artisan at 3:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Yeah, his early works had him as a proto-feminist, but he declined over time.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I don't really understand vote trading... aren't you taking a huge risk? It's not enforceable! What if this tricks people into giving away their vote in some way that is bad? Am I not understanding it well?

Yes; true; it's a possibility; no, you understand it just fine.

And this is why despite getting mooted in the fourth week of October every four years, vote-trading never really took off. There's no legal way to enforce adherence, and so it relies on trust between partisans on the most directly partisan of issues (how to vote) at the most polarized moment (election day).

I suppose it could be of limited value in specific, tight-knit cross-state communities. Like maybe Mormons in Idaho could switch their McMuffin votes with potential Trump-voting cousins across the border in Utah to win our favorite breakfast food his delectable six EVs.

Or, I think I saw someone posting a two-for-one exchange site where third-party voters in swing states trade their vote for two major-party candidate votes in a safe state -- that way, they get more overall votes which helps them with barriers to entry and such, and the major-party voters get a half-vote in Swing State as opposed to a useless vote in Safe State. That seems more plausible as both sides are not really in competition. Still seems kinda silly though.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

NYTimes Donald Trump Can’t Count on Those ‘Missing White Voters’

The possibility that the missing white voters were conservative populists, primed to support a candidate like Mr. Trump, was never supported by much evidence. But it was used to justify a strategy that eschewed gains among nonwhite and moderate voters in favor of larger margins with conservative white voters.

This year, Mr. Trump’s gains among missing white voters aren’t likely to be even enough to overcome four years of demographic shifts, let alone form the basis of a lasting political coalition.

These findings are based on an Upshot analysis of voter registration data nationwide, as well as Upshot/Siena College polls of North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania.

These polls were linked to voter registration and vote history data: We can tell which respondents voted in 2012, or whether they were registered.[...]According to these data, it’s Mrs. Clinton — not Mr. Trump — who stands to gain from a surge of new voters.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Growing increasingly nauseated with each sign of Republicans sadly, predictably falling in line, now that Trump has some viability again. So, with tomorrow likely being a big news day, like the last few Fridays have been, I'm thinking about this:

I’ve known Jeff [Epstein] for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life.
– Donald Trump

Q: Have you ever had a personal relationship with Donald Trump?
A. What do you mean by "personal relationship," sir?
Q. Have you socialized with him?
A. Yes, sir.
Q. Yes?
A. Yes, sir.
Q. Have you ever socialized with Donald Trump in the presence of females under the age of 18?
A: Though I'd like to answer that question, at least today I'm going to have to assert my Fifth, Sixth, and 14th Amendment rights, sir.
– from Epstein's deposition in a suit brought by one of his child victims

What I wonder is if tomorrow incontrovertible evidence comes out that Trump is a serial child rapist—because, let's face it, he probably is—how would the GOP pivot to defending child rape? I'm absolutely certain at this point that they would, I just don't know what angle they would take.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 3:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [35 favorites]

After 2000, it is absolutely insane there wasn't some sort of major campaign to amend the Constitution and get rid of the electoral college. Get rid of first-past-the-post voting while you're at it, so third parties can actually be viable. Vote trading simply reminds us how utterly malfunctioning our electoral system is. And that's why I remain resolute in being apathetic towards voting third party in non-swing states. If you're not in a battleground, then vote your conscience. That is what the bizarre reality that geographical privilege has gifted you in America.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

'Starship Troopers' Reboot in the Works (Exclusive)

Film history reboots itself; first as satire, second as documentary.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Vox: Third-party voters are “trading votes” with Clinton voters to defeat Trump

This a special kind of fucking stupid only third party voters are capable of sustaining. There's no such thing as a "safe state" for Clinton, if enough of you morons don't vote for her, she will lose. This is too clever twice over, like a 19yr old tech-bro's first start-up to pick up dog poop in San Francisco.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

how would the GOP pivot to defending child rape?

depends on the evidence

Statement from victim = she's a liar
Confession from Trump = just locker room talk
Video proof = he was a Democrat back then
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [78 favorites]

how would the GOP pivot to defending child rape

By throwing the child under the bus, of course. She came to the party willingly, she lied about her age, she knew sex is how you get ahead in the business, look at what she was wearing, she had makeup on, she looked like she was 18, and why did she wait so long to complain?

That is what they will say. Oh, and that it's all lies.
posted by suelac at 3:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

wait, where are there $2 happy hour frozen margaritas?? I may need that on election night.
posted by Gymnopedist at 3:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Wait, I'm confused. Do we have a reason to think tomorrow's supposed revelations pertain to child rape, or are you guys just riffing on something?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:42 PM on November 3, 2016

That is what they will say. Oh, and that it's all lies.

Don't forget "she's not pretty enough to rape, just look at her".
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 3:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

lol at the idea of a constitutional amendment happening ever again

To propose an amendment:
The Constitution provides that an amendment may be proposed either by the Congress with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate or by a constitutional convention called for by two-thirds of the State legislatures.

To ratify a proposed amendment:
After being officially proposed, either by Congress or a national convention of the states, a constitutional amendment must then be ratified by three-fourths of the states. Congress is authorized to choose whether a proposed amendment will be sent to the state legislatures or to state ratifying conventions for ratification.

An amendment that says "Puppies are cute," wouldn't pass, much less anything even slightly more controversial.
posted by entropicamericana at 3:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

@PaulaReid .@CBSNews confirms FBI found emails on #AnthonyWeiner computer, related to Hillary Clinton server, that are "new" & not previously reviewed.

Don't panic. "New" does not equate to criminal or incriminating. There is every probability that these new emails are to or from Huma and to or from someone else. Didn't a lot of her staff use the Hillary Clinton server for their emails?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:43 PM on November 3, 2016

After 2000, it is absolutely insane there wasn't some sort of major campaign to amend the Constitution and get rid of the electoral college. Get rid of first-past-the-post voting while you're at it, so third parties can actually be viable.

If you could just convince thirty-four states for a constitutional amendment for getting rid of the EC and all fifty states to get rid of FTTP we'll be in business.

Sadly, the people who control 30-something of those states are controlled by people who are keen to see their fiefdoms remain gerrymandered and not let third party candidates get a look in. We can't even get the NPVIC passed in 270 electoral votes (we're at 165) despite pushing like hell.

But whatever, we're insane and there's no political reality of very powerful people pushing against this to deal with at all.
posted by Talez at 3:44 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

There's no such thing as a "safe state" for Clinton, if enough of you morons don't vote for her, she will lose.

That's the paradox, innit? You don't want to vote in a way that would cause the greater evil to win. But if you're in a solid state, others are already doing that dirty work for you. So you're more likely to vote for a third party candidate if they're less likely to gain significant support to throw the election to the greater evil. That said, it is laughable that states such as NY or CA will somehow flip decades upon decades of past voting behavior, defy poll analysis, and somehow become unsafe states.

Give us the Condorcet voting already
posted by Apocryphon at 3:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

OMG, this fucking election. I was talking with my kids over dinner and my 16 YO was describing noticing the phenomenon that we on MeFi shorthand as "IOKIYAR". I started talking about yes, that's exactly what happened when WJ Clinton was impeached, all of the major players were later revealed to have been adulterers and molesters *while the impeachment process was underway*. The 16YO corrected me that WJC wasn't impeached for having an affair but for lying under oath. I exploded in a 15 minute rant about Republican witch hunting, all the things that came to a standstill because the leader of the free world had to testify in the most intimate terms about his sexual practices, Monica Lewinsky's ruined life. Reader, I ranted in front of my 12 year old about the blue dress.

This. Fucking. Election.
posted by Sublimity at 3:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [85 favorites]

It's not that complicated. You're not going to get 3/4ths of the states to agree to an amendment that would decrease the influence of more than 1/4th of the states. The same inequality that is baked into the electoral college is also baked into the process for amending the Constitution, so it's not going to get changed by Constitutional amendment.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

lol at the idea of a constitutional amendment happening ever again

The ERA was being fought for as late as 1979, which isn't exactly ancient history.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

After 2000, it is absolutely insane there wasn't some sort of major campaign to amend the Constitution and get rid of the electoral college.

People are working on it
posted by indubitable at 3:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

(I should add, people are working on a work-around because, yeah, good luck ever amending the US constitution)
posted by indubitable at 3:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

NYTimes Donald Trump Can’t Count on Those ‘Missing White Voters’

Here's the thing. Donald Trump and his deplorables are old white people. They grew up in a society where there were pretty much only white people on TV, in the newspapers, running for office, etc. and so 2016 is very confusing for them.

Trump was born in 1946, just look at the stats for race & ethnicity in the US in the 40s & 50s when he was growing up. Nearly 9 in 10 Americans were white and practically all the rest were disenfranchised and fully segregated black people. It was peak white, historically speaking. (Now Hillary also is about the same age, but she's spent her entire life working in Democratic politics alongside people who were not all upper-middle-class white folks. Trump has not.) And since the 70s they've maintained the illusion by drawing ever-more precarious electoral boundary maps. That bubble hasn't quite burst yet, but it's coming.

There's a very simple reason that Trump and the Deplorables can't count on those 'missing white voters'. Because a lot of them are dead. It's not the 1960s, even, anymore. And unlike the Dems, they are only now realizing this because the nasty old bubble gum they've been chewing since 1955 has finally lost its elasticity and it blew up all over their face in 2008.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

The ERA was being fought for as late as 1979, which isn't exactly ancient history.

the political climate has changed a little since 1979
posted by entropicamericana at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

But whatever, we're insane and there's no political reality of very powerful people pushing against this to deal with at all.

He's not powerful in the least, but it sure would have been nice if Lawrence Lessig has been allowed on stage at the early debates of the DNC, so at the very least he would get a chance to pitch to the American people the concept of electoral reform.
posted by Apocryphon at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump and Clinton have both landed at Raleigh airport. Dang. I didn't realize Trump was going to be around here as well.

@Acosta Trump speech in NC tonight to focus on national defense. 7 Medal of Honor recipients to join Trump on stage, I'm told.

Wonder how much of his national defense plan involves locking Hillary up?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Posted this in the election volunteering thread on MetaTalk, but that's buried pretty deep now so posting it here too:
Ugh, got my first Trump supporter. Claimed the Clinton campaign got her number illegally and said she can't tell me the number of people she's told she's not a Clinton supporter (would support her going to jail not the White House). Says she's not saying that I'm doing anything illegal of course, but wouldn't put it past the Clinton campaign, of course. Well, I guess it had to happen some time, and to be honest, it wasn't thaaaaat bad. She wasn't personally rude to me.
posted by peacheater at 3:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

The ERA was being fought for as late as 1979, which isn't exactly ancient history.

I can remember 1979 myself but it was a pretty darn long time ago. It's very different country now.
posted by octothorpe at 3:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

You don't send the President of the United States to a state worth 4 electoral votes on election eve if your Major Concern Button hasn't started flashing.

Once more with feeling: this close in, you start running out of places to go based on the electoral map and the finite nature of time and the availability of venues. The trip to Arizona and Nevada yesterday was the last western swing. From now on, it's Ohio and NC and Florida and Philly and Pittsburgh and Detroit. NH doesn't do early voting. PA doesn't do early voting. MI doesn't do early voting.
posted by holgate at 3:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Oh boy. The War on Christmas has already started. Seems like every year it starts earlier and earlier. I remember the good old days when the War on Christmas didn't start until after Thanksgiving.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 3:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

I just want to beg everyone who isn't actually a Stalinist to stop muttering about Hillary "purging" the FBI and anywhere else of those who have wronged her. It's not a great look. Let's stick to politics rather than authoritarian fantasies, in my humble opinion.

Obviously it's important to go by the book. But we know that an internal investigation has already been opened.

Someone should be filing complaints with the DOJ Inspector General RIGHT NOW. After the election, Obama can talk about it and promote it and encourage it. Hopefully even as we speak, someone is taking steps to figure out who is leaking to the WSJ and other sources.

The Inspector General should fully investigate, ideally in time for the Obama Administration to fire people if appropriate. Even if not, a process begun before Hillary takes office, through the normal channels, is perfectly appropriate.

Also, firing people is fine but reprimanding and suspending those involved will kill their careers and make sure they aren't in leadership positions in the future, without drawing the massive heat that a large scale firing would. Also, the problems seem localized in New York, and there's certainly nothing wrong with rotating people out of a dysfunctional office. To Alaska, Wyoming, etc, places full of conservatives. NYC has to be one of the favorite postings for FBI agents.
posted by msalt at 3:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

peacheater: FWIW, it's possible that no one from the phone bank you're calling from ever called her before. But the a state democratic campaign might have. Or some other progressive cause did and she mistook them as being from the Clinton campaign (seriously a lot of people only pay attention to the presidential race). And data isn't shared immediately so far as I know and that's all assuming whoever called her before correctly marked her as a Trump supporter. :(
posted by R343L at 3:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Wait, I'm confused. Do we have a reason to think tomorrow's supposed revelations pertain to child rape, or are you guys just riffing on something?

I doubt it. Rick Wilson is heavily implying that the Newsweek story is based on his tip, and he's said many times that neither of his two pieces of oppo relate to the rape case.
posted by acidic at 3:59 PM on November 3, 2016

This group is actively trying to start an Article V convention, which could pass new amendments. You need 2/3 of the States to call for that.
posted by thelonius at 4:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

He's not powerful in the least, but it sure would have been nice if Lawrence Lessig has been allowed on stage at the early debates of the DNC, so at the very least he would get a chance to pitch to the American people the concept of electoral reform.

It would have been nice but then he basically came out of the gate with "this is a stunt, I will do what I want which is politically unfeasible anyway holding only the executive and then resign" which is great when you consider what being POTUS actually entails. Which is why I didn't crowdfund it when it came up. Like, I know white people love raising awareness but it was an entirely unproductive exercise.
posted by Talez at 4:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'd like to speak up for vote trading. I think it's great. MA or VT or OR or something aren't going Red, it's just not happening. But literally every single vote in Florida is important. If you live in Florida and just can't live with yourself voting for the D candidate, or genuinely want to support the alternative but you also want to stop the Rs, getting that extra boost to actually get out and cast your ballot is easily worth the trouble for the Blue state voter.

Ideally it would be relatively risk free. The person in the blue state could vote early for Stein or write in Bernie or whatever and send a Snapchat snap to the swing state voter. Sure there's some risk of welching but what gets lost if they do back out?

If I was a billionaire tech nerd I'd build a site to enable it. As a side product it might get 3rd parties a reason to actually try to have some real policies instead of a colllection of genie wishes.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Reader, I ranted in front of my 12 year old about the blue dress.

It's OK. They need these memories to understand politics and why you vote the way you do. I remember Thanksgiving dinner with my now wife's family when we were 15 years old, and her mom telling the story of how she was teaching 7th grade French in 1981 when she heard Reagan had been shot. Her words were something like, "They came in and said the President had been shot, and I had to act shocked for the kids and turn on the news, but I ran right out to the teacher's lounge to make sure they had got him, so the kids wouldn't see me cheer". Then she did explain how they had hated Reagan's lies and "trickle down" from the beginning, how her dad was in a union, my wife's father was a democratic precinct captain, and so on. Kids shouldn't be shielded from your real feelings and politics, that's how you accidentally raise an Ayn Rand follower. Just remember to back up your emotional reaction with the reasons why, and make sure they understand it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [32 favorites]

> Trump speech in NC tonight to focus on national defense.

Every time I think of a Trump speech, I think of Markov Chains - reading this was enough, I couldn't take it anymore as the curiosity was killing me... so I had to run one of Trumps prior speeches through a Markov Chain generator:

This July, recruiting to CNN, ISIS was obsolete because internet this July, in Germany. More political stamina to then-Secretary. The major difference beginning in some what a clear were dead to America.

Oversee. We Must Work Together Agained as a rally. We will work side-by-side in our institutions, beheadings and immigration of exporting death that slaughtered, girls are murdered out and disabled threat champions. I will be all ask the United States.

In serve as our President, In winning or extinguished. The failures in Iraq, and allow tradition is deemed safe Again.

A new approach, when purpose of Forces Agreement and other entitlement benefits that thread the direct religion – so the common – and teaching hate will be used.

Some of this doesn't seem that far off....
posted by MysticMCJ at 4:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

If I was a billionaire tech nerd I'd build a site to enable it.

They did. The CA SoS at the time threatened to sue the shit out of the site owners if they continued because it was basically simultaneously buying and selling a vote.
posted by Talez at 4:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Some woman just told me that because she got "eleven pieces of mail yesterday and fifteen today," she was "through with the election".

"I am so sick of junk mail that I'm willing to let Trump and/or Clinton whom I hate to become President just so I don't have to look at anymore junk mail. I don't care about loss of rights and/or other important to me issues nearly as much as I care about how much paper I have to touch long enough to throw away."
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

Yeah, I'm with Justinian on this one. I don't want to freak anybody out, and you know, I'm pretty much happily doing what I need to be doing, and I wouldn't mind stress eating because my health would improve if I had more meat on my bones.

But anytime I hear people going after the polls, I remember Romney. And as somebody else said upthread, I remember 2000 and 2004.

In 2000, I had just been broken up with and had all this drama, had been in love with B Clinton, fell very much out of love with him, and wasn't enchanted with Gore. I wasn't like *oh he lied about the internet* or *he SIGHED* or whatever, I just was like, Bill let me down, this joker GWB can't possibly win, dutifully voted, then--wait, what? What the fuck just happened?

And then in 2004, it very much felt like a kick to the stomach. Because it wasn't, oh, the country done fucked up once, we'll sort it out now, it was--people didn't like Kerry because he was stiff? Are you fucking kidding me with this fucked-up ness? Americans are that stupid. Right? Right?

Maybe 538 is wrong and y'all who are but Sam Wang are right on the money, and my musing: hmm a Trump presidency is actually a possibility is misguided.

But I would frankly rather know exactly what states to be looking at, and while I've heard criticism about 538's numbers being off, I haven't heard that 538 is wrong about Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida are the states that I don't know, decide whether it's apocalypse nowish?

I appreciate hearing what's going on with those states. I'm assured by the NV and CO numbers and for some reason 538 now has NC as light blue. So that's all cool.

Still too fucking close by a mile, though.
posted by angrycat at 4:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

The one illogical thing, among many, that stands out in my mind, is WTF? The FBI has a twitter account? Are you kidding me. The one time Secretaries of State had private servers for email, they tried their best to keep secure, and the FBI has a twitter account, that any agent, or any supervisor, or any talking head FBI person can riff on? This is no, no, no, no.

The military has the Stars and Stripes, they say whatever they want, which I find terrible, at best, then lifer federal employees are tweeting the contents of investigations. It is as if the IRS were tweeting, Oh Yeah, Oh Yeah, we're gonna get us some offa whomever. Even I don't have a twitter account, I finally reached a point of saying realistically, "Self, how many ways are you going to say the same thing, and who are you going to say it to?"
posted by Oyéah at 4:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

They did. The CA SoS at the time threatened to sue the shit out of the site owners if they continued because it was basically simultaneously buying and selling a vote.

Lollll it's obvious why I'm not a billionaire.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Well, things are quickly going to shit in Turkey. Nothing like a little preview of Trump's America.

@nateschenkkan
Turkey appears to be arresting all the HDP MPs, third-largest party in parliament. This is it, people.

@nateschenkkan
This has been coming since the elections on June 7, 2015, when the HDP's success broke the AKP's majority in parliament.

@nateschenkkan
In under two years, HDP has gone from being the government's interlocutor for peace to its mortal enemy.

@mutludc
Demirtas of HDP: "Security forces are at my home door in Diyarbakir now, with a forced detention order."
posted by chris24 at 4:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [44 favorites]

They should have a tv show: Are you smarter than a billionaire?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 4:11 PM on November 3, 2016

Oyéah: I sincerely doubt just anyone in the agency has access to FBI official twitter account. There's probably a media team that controls all of them and decides how they are used.
posted by R343L at 4:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

The one illogical thing, among many, that stands out in my mind, is WTF? The FBI has a twitter account? Are you kidding me. The one time Secretaries of State had private servers for email, they tried their best to keep secure, and the FBI has a twitter account, that any agent, or any supervisor, or any talking head FBI person can riff on? This is no, no, no, no.

It's an account that they use specifically to post public notices of new documents that are made public under FOIA. It's not a random account anybody can just use to riff, nor does it have anything to do with email servers. Lots of government agencies have Twitter accounts for the purpose of communicating with the public. I do not understand you.

This specific use of the twitter account (which again, involved posting public documents, albeit curiously timed ones), is under investigation.
posted by zachlipton at 4:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

German comedian Jan Böhmermann (previously) comments on the US presidential election with a catchy new song: Grab US by the Pussy

There's also an English version of his election special (46 min): “America has given us so much: bodybuilding, MacGyver, and lactose-free soy lattes.”
posted by blasser duenner Junge at 4:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

The one illogical thing, among many, that stands out in my mind, is WTF? The FBI has a twitter account? Are you kidding me

Yeah! Those dummies! What possible reason could there be for the FBI to have a way to quickly reach millions of people?
posted by acidic at 4:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Oyéah: I sincerely doubt just anyone in the agency has access to FBI official twitter account. There's probably a media team that controls all of them and decides how they are used.

Actually, there's probably a GS-10/12 position called something like "public affairs specialist" who's in charge of those accounts. Someone in the FBI controls that account, who it is, why the timing, and whether they were influenced by particular team of agents in the NYC office are the interesting questions.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

@jeneps
Hillary Clinton and Pharrell just made a surprise stop at North Carolina Central University, an HBCU in Durham [pic]

@jeneps
Aide says there's now a huge line of people walking to a nearby early voting site
posted by chris24 at 4:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [36 favorites]

NBC News Exclusive: White House Readies to Fight Election Day Cyber Mayhem

The U.S. government believes hackers from Russia or elsewhere may try to undermine next week's presidential election and is mounting an unprecedented effort to counter their cyber meddling, American officials told NBC News.

The effort is being coordinated by the White House and the Department of Homeland Security, but reaches across the government to include the CIA, the National Security Agency and other elements of the Defense Department, current and former officials say. [...]

Officials are alert for any attempts to create Election Day chaos, and say steps are being taken to prepare for worst-case scenarios, including a cyber-attack that shuts down part of the power grid or the internet.

But what is more likely, multiple U.S. officials say, is a lower-level effort by hackers from Russia or elsewhere to peddle misinformation by manipulating Twitter, Facebook and other social media platforms.

For example, officials fear an 11th hour release of fake documents implicating one of the candidates in an explosive scandal without time for the news media to fact check it. So far, document dumps attributed to the Russians have damaged Democrats and favored Trump.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

But anytime I hear people going after the polls, I remember Romney.

Romney and Obama were neck-and-neck in the weeks before the election, and half the national polls had Romney in the lead. That is not currently the case with Clinton and Trump.
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

I've got a bad feeling about GOP rhetoric, and the FBI, which is that they are ramping. That is, they are pyschologically building themselves up. Now we're seeing talk of impeaching Hilary on day one.

I'm not sure that the Republicans and Trump are going to accept the election results, at all. I think that they may just declare them all invalid on Wednesday. Demand a recount.

Civil war may be upon us, no matter what happens on Tuesday. No matter what the electoral college says.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 4:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

So at a school in Virginia, the principal and a secretary dressed up as Trump and Clinton-in-a-prision-uniform for Halloween, to the usual outrage, angry parents, school board superintendent saying stuff, you know the drill.

Hey, I wonder what the name of the school is. Robert E. Lee High School.
posted by zachlipton at 4:21 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]

Romney and Obama were neck-and-neck in the weeks before the election, and half the national polls had Romney in the lead. That is not currently the case with Clinton and Trump.

Depends on if you count tracking polls or not.
posted by Justinian at 4:22 PM on November 3, 2016

...there's probably a GS-10/12 position called something like "public affairs specialist" who's in charge of those accounts

I bet there are multiple people with de facto access, though, so there will be a cloud of deniability around the whole thing.
posted by Coventry at 4:22 PM on November 3, 2016

Atlantic Why Is Hillary Clinton So Widely Loved?

We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton, who support her because of her qualifications rather than because of her unqualified opponent, who empathize with her. Yet millions of Americans, women and men, love her intelligence, her industriousness, her grit; they feel loyal to her, they will vote with enthusiasm for her.

Human beings change as they grow, but a person’s history speaks to who she is. There are millions who admire the tapestry of Hillary Clinton’s past: the first-ever student commencement speaker at Wellesley speaking boldly about making the impossible possible, the Yale law student interested in the rights of migrant farmworkers, the lawyer working with the Children’s Defense Fund, the first lady trying to make health care accessible for all Americans.

There are people who love how cleanly she slices through policy layers, how thoroughly she digests the small print. They remember that she won two terms to the United States Senate, where she was not only well-regarded but was known to get along with Republicans. They have confidence in her. There are people who rage at the media on her behalf, who see the coverage she too often receives as unfair. There are people who in a quiet, human way wish her well. There are people who, when Hillary Clinton becomes the first woman to be president of the United States, will weep from joy.

For sure I will be weeping with a combination of joy and relief.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [72 favorites]

Wow. The Guardian article that zombieflanders linked above, titled "The FBI is Trumpland", just came across my Facebook feed – without comment, but posted by an FBI agent I've known for 40 years.
posted by Now I'm Prune Tracy! at 4:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [62 favorites]

Reposting from an earlier election post, for those who are interested:

If you know anyone in a swing state who wants to support a third-party, suggest they take a look at Trump Traders, who will match their single vote for Clinton in a swing state for two votes for a third-party candidate of their choice in a state that's safe for the Democrats. That gets the third party closer to the 5% level which will let them compete more effectively next time around and it helps stop Trump's election.

posted by Joe in Australia at 4:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

two votes for a third-party candidate of their choice in a state that's safe for the Democrats.

Once more, with feeling: If enough people do this, the state won't be safe for Democrats any more. Math is hard, but not that hard.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

wait wait wait, two votes for the Green or Libertarian clownshow for one vote for Clinton?

are they fucking kidding me with this shit?
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

Actually, I lied... two of the tracking polls moved back towards Clinton so only the LA Times still has Trump leading. That's good.
posted by Justinian at 4:32 PM on November 3, 2016

I'm phone banking in Somerville and I just got my first live wire! Some woman just told me that because she got "eleven pieces of mail yesterday and fifteen today," she was "through with the election". She then slammed the phone down.

I hope she steps in a pile of fresh dog feces.

To be fair, a lot of people really do feel like they're being hounded. This election is my first time living in a swing state (NC). The amount of mail and phone calls I've been receiving from people who I'm aware do mean well, but sometimes calling at weird hours like 8:30PM, has been nuts. I'm not sure if it makes it more or less annoying that the previous residents of the house I moved into were Republicans. So not only do I get my own political mail, but theirs too. You can't turn on the TV without seeing awful commercials about every single person running, and so many of these commercials sound like they were written by 5 year-olds for 5 year-olds. It's super annoying. I wish I, as someone who already voted, could disable these commercials and the mail I keep getting about them. (Doesn't give someone the right to be rude to you on the phone.)

But I am excited to hear that Hillary is in town!!!! Yay!!!!!
posted by bananana at 4:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

Yeah, it's not a great idea. A state is safe until it's not, and the more common talk is about protest voting, vote trading and just safe states in general, the more likely people are to try and game the system and rely on others to do the right thing while they fuck around.
posted by gusottertrout at 4:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Reuters U.S. court deals Trump a setback in poll-monitor fight

In Pennsylvania, Trump's poll-monitoring plan faces a significant hurdle because state law requires partisan poll watchers to perform their duties in the county in which they are registered to vote.

That could make it difficult to recruit monitors in places like Philadelphia, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by a ratio of eight to one. The city has 120,000 registered Republicans and 1,685 voting locations.

The Pennsylvania Republican Party sought to suspend that requirement so that poll monitors could come from anywhere in the state, which would enable them to bring in supporters from suburban and rural areas where Trump has stronger support.

But U.S. District Judge Gerald Pappert said that would be too disruptive to change the law less than a week before Tuesday's vote.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

German comedian Jan Böhmermann (previously) comments on the US presidential election with a catchy new song

Can't wait for the Donald's lawsuit - for copyright infringement, ' course.
posted by progosk at 4:34 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Once more, with feeling: If enough people do this, the state won't be safe for Democrats any more. Math is hard, but not that hard.

And the reality is, the math will never ever ever get to a case to flip NY, or CA, or any of the other West Coast/Northeastern states. Except maybe NH. That's why you be smart and focus on states with comfortably large margins.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Florida house race I mentioned in the last thread (FL-07, Democrat challenger Stephanie Murphy trying to unseat Republican John Mica) has been upgraded from toss up to lean democrat!
posted by everybody had matching towels at 4:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]

This group is actively trying to start an Article V convention, which could pass new amendments. You need 2/3 of the States to call for that.

Note that their simulated convention in September had the modest and achievable goals of requiring the states to approve any increase in the national debt, imposing term limits, limiting the Commerce Clause to its original meaning, limiting the power of federal regulations, requiring a supermajority to impose federal taxes, repealing the 16th Amendment (federal income tax), and giving the states the power to abrogate any federal law, regulation, or executive order. Nothing much.

2/3 of the states are required, which is 34 out of 50. At this moment, Republicans control all state legislatures in 30 out of 50, and 8 have split control. The 3/4 to pass such amendments is 38/50. Part of the purpose of pushing for every possible vote for Democrats is to reverse that trend and squash even the thought of such a convention happening.

Now, the other comfort is that those who want an Article V convention are also spreading the quaint belief that it can be limited to the topics and amendments of their choosing, and that they can prevent the left and center from proposing their own amendments. This belief is unsupported by the Constitution, to put it succinctly. A full-blown wild-card convention is sufficiently dangerous that no one outside of archconservative dingbats and Lawrence Lessig wants one.
posted by delfin at 4:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Wow. The Guardian article that zombieflanders linked above, titled "The FBI is Trumpland", just came across my Facebook feed – without comment, but posted by an FBI agent I've known for 40 years.

The biggest Trump supporter on my FB friends list is a lifelong Chicago Police Department officer. I keep him unhidden because he gives me a healthy reminder why I got the fuck out of that city when I left for college and didn't look back.
posted by ocschwar at 4:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

To be fair, a lot of people really do feel like they're being hounded

Yeah, I'm going to be wearing my sheepish face canvassing this weekend. People are sick to death of it, but about half the people I actually talked to last weekend were truly valuable voter contracts with people who needed to know where their polling place was, or who hadn't really considered voting and hadn't made plans to do so, and one enthusiastic new volunteer. The other 50% were like omg geeze you people have already been here like 8 times! So it's still important to do but it's tough to ride that line between making those valuable contacts while not also pissing off the likely voters. I'll have my son with me Saturday, so the cuteness might help with that.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

that's when he told me that even if the evil woman I supported became POTUS, she wouldn't be able to thwart the will of God.

If I were Christian, I would say, "I agree - but what makes you think you know what that will is?"

Claiming this or that politician "cannot thwart God's will": part of standard doctrine for the faith.
Claiming that "God's will" matches the wishes or predictions of any particular human media or other group: extreme hubris.

It's endlessly entertaining to me how many Christians find that God's will matches exactly their own prejudices, and how quickly they insist that their grandparents, who were equally devout and equally certain, were mistaken. "God's will" was used as an excuse to deny women and people of color the right to vote, to murder LGBT people, to keep slaves, to condone child abuse, and pretty much ever other vicious thing people have done to each other.

I maintain my believe that if an omnipotent being wants something to happen, he doesn't need Fox newscasters to convince us of its value.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

The Florida house race I mentioned in the last thread (FL-07, Democrat challenger Stephanie Murphy trying to unseat Republican John Mica) has been upgraded from toss up to lean democrat!

I voted for Stephanie Murphy yesterday! :)
posted by Gymnopedist at 4:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

Sign report, Pittsburgh edition:

I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp, not unlike many others dotting the region. Except to its right was a similar-looking sign, with the same font, colors, and everything -- but it said:

IS
A
JAGOFF

If anyone reading this knows who's doing this, my MeMail is open, and I have a round of frosty beverages for the heroes who are out there doing this work.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [65 favorites]

We do not see, often enough, the people who love Hillary Clinton...

Many middle-class African-Americans love the Clintons.
posted by Coventry at 4:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

I'm actually hearing a lot fewer complaints about being hounded this election than I have in the past. I don't know if it's because the stakes seem higher or if our ground game isn't as good. I start to worry a bit if people aren't annoyed with us, to be honest!

I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp, not unlike many others dotting the region. Except to its right was a similar-looking sign, with the same font, colors, and everything -- but it said:
IS
A
JAGOFF

Someone did something similar to this when people chalked Trump slogans on the sidewalks around campus here. It warmed my cold, cold heart. I will happily contribute to the beer fund.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Well, I'm in Virginia, which I think we can agree is a safe Clinton state, so if any Trump voter in a swing state wants to trade votes with me and also hear about exciting opportunities in the commemorative plate market, send me your email address and we can set something up.
posted by indubitable at 4:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Following up on my Clinton impeachment rant: my kids and I just watched Lewinsky's TED talk about cyber bullying, in which she talks about her experience. My kids, they got it.
posted by Sublimity at 4:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS IS, A PERSONALITY QUIZ? IF YOU DON'T WANT TRUMP, VOTE CLINTON. AAAAUUUUUUGH

I believe the point of trading third party votes is to get 5% of the popular vote without screwing up the electoral college. That's the magic percentage to get federal funding for your party.
posted by xyzzy at 4:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Yeah, I'm going to be wearing my sheepish face canvassing this weekend.

It's useful to keep in mind when you're canvassing that you're doing people a favor by helping them to do the right thing on election day.
posted by Coventry at 4:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Buzzfeed: How Macedonia Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation

Over the past year, the central Macedonian town of Veles (population 45,000) has experienced a digital gold rush as locals launched at least 140 US politics websites. These sites have American-sounding domain names such as WorldPoliticUS.com, TrumpVision365.com, USConservativeToday.com, DonaldTrumpNews.co, and USADailyPolitics.com. They almost all publish aggressively pro-Trump content aimed at conservatives and Trump supporters in the US.

The young Macedonians who run these sites don’t care about Donald Trump. They are responding to straightforward economic incentives: as Facebook regularly reveals in earnings reports, a US Facebook user is worth about four times a user outside the US. The fraction-of-a-penny-per-click of U.S. display advertising — a declining market for American publishers — goes a long way in Veles. Several teens and young men who run these sites told BuzzFeed News that they learned the best way to generate traffic is to get their politics stories to spread on Facebook — and the best way to generate shares on Facebook is to publish sensationalist and often false content that caters to Trump supporters.

As a result, this strange hub of pro-Trump sites in Macedonia is now playing a significant role in propagating the kind of false and misleading content that was identified in a recent BuzzFeed News analysis of hyperpartisan Facebook pages. These sites open a window into the economic incentives behind producing misinformation specifically for the wealthiest advertising markets and specifically for Facebook, the world’s largest social network, as well as within online advertising networks such as Google AdSense.

“Yes, the info in the blogs is bad, false and misleading but the rationale is that ‘if it gets the people to click on it and engage, then use it,’” said a university student in Veles who started a US politics site, and who agreed to speak on the condition that BuzzFeed News not use his name.

posted by zachlipton at 4:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [53 favorites]

Buzzfeed: How Macedonia Became A Global Hub For Pro-Trump Misinformation

how did this not make it into HyperNormalisation?
posted by indubitable at 4:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

wait, where are there $2 happy hour frozen margaritas?? I may need that on election night.

Applebee's at least. And they're not bad, though I had them in August when they were $1, now they are apparently $2.
posted by threeturtles at 4:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

zachlipton, that's an amazing story. I thought I had heard it all with the paid Russian trolls pretending to be Americans in the comments section. Now this.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

My main issue with 538 is that their methods are closed-source and there aren't a lot of details about them, and that while each of the individual steps they talk about e.g. here seem to make sense, it's also a pretty ad-hoc method with a lot of moving parts and those tend to be difficult to reason about. I just can't tell whether 538 is double-counting national trends or not based on their description of the method. In contrast, if they were throwing everything into an established modeling framework (and esp. if they made that framework public, or semi-public) it would be a lot easier to tell whether they'd specified the model correctly.

Empirically, it does seem like 538 is the most volatile of the poll aggregators: even other aggregators that do take into account the national trends and inter-state correlations, like this Slate one (from Pierre-Antoine Kremp, who uses an established modeling framework -- currently 88% for Clinton), currently have a substantially higher chance of a Clinton win. It's possible 538 is right and everyone else is wrong, but given that the other people doing these calculations are at least equally qualified I'm inclined to mentally down-weight the outlier (in this case, 538).
posted by en forme de poire at 5:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Hillary Clinton and Pharrell just made a surprise stop at North Carolina Central University

She stopped at UNCG and NC A&T last Thursday (the first day of early voting) after a rally at Wake Forest. These rallies and unannounced stops aren't simply "get out the vote": they're "here's a map to the early voting location and volunteers to guide you."
posted by holgate at 5:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

Earlier in the year, some in Veles experimented with left-leaning or pro–Bernie Sanders content, but nothing performed as well on Facebook as Trump content.

Or, if commemorative plates aren't your thing, perhaps I can interest you in a time share??
posted by indubitable at 5:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp, not unlike many others dotting the region. Except to its right was a similar-looking sign, with the same font, colors, and everything -- but it said:
IS
A
JAGOFF

If we ever get another election in which levity is possible, I wholeheartedly support culture jamming of the urban landscape with road signs. If we have to drive by them for months anyway, we should at least get to see signs like FREE THE NAIROBI TRIO and GARBAGE MEN DEMAND EQUAL TIME and CANDIDATE X MOLESTS COLLIES.
posted by delfin at 5:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

If we ever get another election in which levity is possible, I wholeheartedly support culture jamming of the urban landscape with road signs. If we have to drive by them for months anyway, we should at least get to see signs like FREE THE NAIROBI TRIO and GARBAGE MEN DEMAND EQUAL TIME and CANDIDATE X MOLESTS COLLIES.

I really wanted to revive the old Firesign Theater "PAPOON FOR PRESIDENT: HE'S NOT INSANE", but that's such an appealing promise these days that it evokes depression rather than absurdity.
posted by lumpenprole at 5:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

Fellow Philly Mefites - I don't understand the concerns regarding the SEPTA strike. Who is taking public transportation to their polling place? The divisions are almost all tiny - the biggest I saw were about half a mile in length and those were in lightly populated areas like market east.

Is the fear that people won't have time before or after work because transportation is messed up with the strike? Is there something that I am missing?
posted by nolnacs at 5:16 PM on November 3, 2016

MetaFilter: written by 5 year-olds for 5 year-olds
posted by kirkaracha at 5:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

FNORD/SOMA 2020!
posted by vrakatar at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

I believe the point of trading third party votes is to get 5% of the popular vote without screwing up the electoral college. That's the magic percentage to get federal funding for your party.

I'm all about strategic voting! Not voting strategically in our weird-ass plurality system (plurality with binning?) means that you're less likely to get the results you want. If people want to trade, it's totally fine with me, though I'd rather see the Clinton popular vote totals run up as high as possible so she can claim an unambiguous mandate in the press.

The only real problems I have with this strategy are that 1. the federal funding is still a drop in the bucket relative to what the major parties spend, and 2. IIRC, it would also have to be spent on a presidential campaign specifically, not on e.g. actually organizing within states. And in my view that's just more money spent encouraging people to quixotically protest-vote.

Especially without voting reform or an actual split of the Republican party into moderate pro-business types and frothing tea-partiers, a third party left candidate has to actually have more support than either Dems OR Repubs in order to win; a sizable minority just ends up delivering elections to Republicans. I'm not an accelerationist so I don't see this as a good outcome. If the Green Party actually wanted to win the presidency it'd take a shit ton of organizing between elections over the next decades, plus successfully fielding candidates at the state level so there's an experienced bench to draw from. And I'm not even sure that's likely to be more successful than building out the Progressive wing of the Dems, assuming the goal is actually more leftist representation in the US Government - which I concede it might not be for some radicals.

But anyway, I still feel a lot better about Stein voters trading vs. not trading.
posted by en forme de poire at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

There was some panic about the SEPTA strike on Twitter earlier, but even if it were going to affect polling places in the city (which as you say it shouldn't), political parties regularly drive voters to the polls anyway.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 5:20 PM on November 3, 2016

Is the fear that people won't have time before or after work because transportation is messed up with the strike? Is there something that I am missing?

I suspect the fear may be that it would provoke a conservative anti-union backlash that could lead to greater Trump turnout/voting?
posted by en forme de poire at 5:21 PM on November 3, 2016

Apologies if this Inside the Trump Bunker article has been posted in previous threads, but I just came across it now. The Trump campaign actually gave Bloomberg pretty significant access and it's interesting to read about the methods to their madnesses.

The upshot is:

They know they're losing. Rather than focusing on ground game and GOTV, they're focused on voter suppression, specifically among white liberals, young women and black people. Hence the TPP stuff, the Bernie stuff, the "Hillary went after the women Bill abused" stuff, and more. They're posting some very targeted ads on Facebook.

and

Reince Preibus spent 4 years and a lot of money building an elaborate database of Republican voters, and now Trump has it.
posted by pocketfullofrye at 5:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

As a US citizen what is my best option for betting on this election. The recent uncertainty seems to have created the opportunity for a quick return. Scanning various prediction markets I see an increased the payout on a Clinton win (e.g. Betfair, Predictit, IEM), but seems like the stakes are either too low or the transaction costs are still to high. For example PredictIt had Kaine wins VP available for trading at $.68 with $1.00 payout (all others are not open to new traders). Seems like a pretty great return but then there is a 5% fee to depositing funds to your account and a 10% fee when the contract closes, plus taxes.
posted by humanfont at 5:24 PM on November 3, 2016

I participated in vote trading in 2000, which is why I voted for Nader in Texas. But it didn't make me feel any better when Gore lost. Those people in Florida still voted Nader and still lost the election. So, ultimately, I think you should vote for who you would actually like to be president. Not to make a statement or in some kind of chess move. Vote for who you think should get the job, of the people actually on the ballot.
posted by threeturtles at 5:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

P.S.: Wang and Zelizer walk you thru your election anxiety (via PEC)
posted by en forme de poire at 5:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Finally, re: the Buzzfeed article on the Macedonia Trump sites, I realized as I read it that it was surrounded by headlines (in Buzzfeed) like, "You've Been Making Apple Pie Wrong This Entire Time" and "A Mom Texted Videos Of Her Dead Son’s Body To His Dad In An Alleged Revenge Killing" and got the distinct impression that the subtext of the entire article was "Game recognize game".
posted by indubitable at 5:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Yeah, [vote trading is] not a great idea. A state is safe until it's not, and the more common talk is about protest voting, vote trading and just safe states in general, the more likely people are to try and game the system and rely on others to do the right thing while they fuck around.

Maybe, but the reality is that a vote in a swing state is infinitely more valuable than a vote in a state that's 100% non-swing. These vote swap programs aren't going to be large enough to affect California unless Hillary has already lost. On the other hand, there's a non-zero chance that vote-swappers will affect Colorado or even (e.g.) Maine and eke out a win if things go badly. Even if it doesn't help Clinton's election, the fact that a voter supports a Democrat candidate in one race might flow on to down-ballot races.

So while there might be a moral hazard in this sort of gamification, there are potential practical benefits in this election, which is really what's critical.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

She stopped at UNCG and NC A&T last Thursday (the first day of early voting) after a rally at Wake Forest. These rallies and unannounced stops aren't simply "get out the vote": they're "here's a map to the early voting location and volunteers to guide you."

And tomorrow is the last full day of early voting here in NC. The polls close at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday and don't open again until Election Tuesday.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:33 PM on November 3, 2016

And tomorrow is the last full day of early voting here in NC. The polls close at 1:00 p.m. on Saturday and don't open again until Election Tuesday.

Remember how John Roberts told us the South cured racism, so the Voting Rights Act was no longer needed?
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]

So, ultimately, I think you should vote for who you would actually like to be president.

The problem is that in our current voting system, by doing this, you may end up making it more likely that your most reviled choice becomes president. Hence strategic voting, when possible: either voting Clinton in order to vote against Trump (even if your first choice is actually another candidate), or trading with a voter from a "safe" Clinton state like VT or MA.

It's a good point though that people may participate in trading networks insincerely: I don't know that there's a legal way to validate a vote trade.
posted by en forme de poire at 5:41 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

It's funny how easy it is to think that racism is dead when you are a wealthy white man in a privileged job for life.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

>I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp....

My favorite sign-changing from the last election was when someone posted a huge, hand-made "Rand Paul Family Values" sign on the edge of the road, and some fine person climbed the embankment and, using strategically-place white tape, changed it to "Ru Paul Family Values". It stayed that way for months.
posted by acrasis at 5:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]

I'm going to Virginia this weekend to knock doors with the union thugs! Folks have been hard at work full time and at all hours, all over the country. I have a friend who's been doing this in friendly New Hampshire where they've told him to get out of their middle-of-nowhere gravel-roaded neighborhood and threatened to call the cops when he didn't. Union folk get the "best" assignments. The VA neighborhood I'm going to is a cakewalk.

Someone in prior thread was asking why Hillary would go to Detroit when Michigan is electorally safe. Part of the reason may be signalling pro-labor, because labor folks have not been not so enthused, from what I've heard. But they need to go out, and this is a critical week.
posted by zennie at 5:45 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

Sorting Through the Clinton Email Case and What the F.B.I.’s Options Are

A week ago, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, jolted the presidential race by sending a letter to Congress saying the bureau had discovered new emails that might be relevant to Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server. The disclosure set off widespread criticism of Mr. Comey and unleashed a hurricane of news about Mrs. Clinton’s family foundation, Russia and F.B.I. infighting. Let’s sort it all out.

It's mostly an explainer if you haven't been following this closely, but there's one interesting detail as to what took them so long since they had Weiner's laptop a while ago:

That is when agents realized that Ms. Abedin’s emails were on the laptop, but they did not have the authority to view them without a warrant.

The F.B.I. needed custom software to allow them to read Mr. Weiner’s emails without viewing hers. But building that program took two weeks, causing the delay. The program ultimately showed that there were thousands of Ms. Abedin’s emails on the laptop.

Programing note: the NYT paywall is coming down Monday-Wednesday, including a live call-in show for their podcast.
posted by zachlipton at 5:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

I was on my way home from work tonight and saw a Trump/Pence sign along the side of the on ramp....

I'd need to check with Don Henley, but I believe the actual lyrics are:

"Out on the road today, I saw a Trump/Pence sign on the side of a ramp
A little voice inside my head said 'that looks straight out of Mein Kampf.'"
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

For example PredictIt had Kaine wins VP available for trading at $.68 with $1.00 payout (all others are not open to new traders). Seems like a pretty great return but then there is a 5% fee to depositing funds to your account and a 10% fee when the contract closes, plus taxes.

The 10% fee is on your profit and not on the total $1 per share, if that makes any difference.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

"Oh, they're so much more brave than me. I wouldn't have done what they did. I'm brave in other ways. I'm brave, I'm financially brave."
posted by acidic at 5:53 PM on November 3, 2016

These vote swap programs aren't going to be large enough to affect California unless Hillary has already lost.

Honestly, even if these programs were restricted only to trading votes in New York, California, and Illinois, it'd be more than enough to accommodate the fairly low numbers of third party voters in swing states. It is absolutely laughable to claim that trading a meager amount of votes would flip those states for Republican candidates.

It's a good point though that people may participate in trading networks insincerely: I don't know that there's a legal way to validate a vote trade.

Me neither. I guess at the end it ends up being a game theory sorta dilemma for us prisoners of the two-party system.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

67% at 538 and the FBI thing really has me freaking the fuck out. Please someone tell me it is going to be okay :(
posted by Merzbau at 5:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

67% at 538

Sam Wang and the PEC have got your back.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:57 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

67% at 538 is up from earlier. Every other aggregator is more optimistic. Things have levelled out post-Comey. Early voting in Nevada and North Carolina is going swimmingly. It is going to be okay.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't know that there's a legal way to validate a vote trade.

No, and that would be substantially illegal to set up - vote buying is illegal; talking to someone and saying, "Hey, if you lived here, who would you vote for? That sounds awesome; I'll vote for them," is not.

Unverified vote trades fall in the same category as "ok, you've convinced me to vote for [CANDIDATE];" they're entirely unregulated and unenforceable claims. There's no way to prove you voted for someone else's candidate of choice, which is why "selfie with ballot" is illegal in several states - showing proof you voted in a particular way could be a condition of vote buying.

Informal, no-proof "vote trading" is within the range of accepted voter persuasion; providing proof moves it into paying for votes.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 6:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

It would appear that Nate Silver is overcompensating for underestimating the chances of Trump winning the GOP nomination, which was a very different race.
posted by Apocryphon at 6:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

67% at 538 and the FBI thing really has me freaking the fuck out. Please someone tell me it is going to be okay :(

Stop following 538. He's trolling you.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

And tomorrow is the last full day of early voting here in NC.

Which is why Obama is in Fayetteville and Charlotte tomorrow.

In other scheduling news, Trump's going from Wilmington, NC on Saturday lunchtime all the way to Reno. (And probably to Vegas and his blankie.) That's five hours of flight time. At least he gets the Secret Service to pay for a chunk of it.
posted by holgate at 6:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

The FBI vs. CIA split over the election is fascinating. I always sort of assumed there was "an establishment" where the top people pretty much, regardless of political differences, colluded... but this FBI stuff shows that there are multiple competing establishments.

Hell, there are competing interests within the establishments. There's an ongoing battle between operations, criminal and intel at the Bureau, and the CIA's got so damn many fiefdoms the DCI is mostly a cat herder.

That they've mostly stayed out of direct political involvement has been their only saving grace to this point, and now.... well.

It's going to be interesting for Madame President, even beyond the Republican blockade.
posted by Mooski at 6:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

North Carolina. In 2012, Duke students could vote early on the main campus. This year, the polls were moved to a little-known spot. Result: [official email to student body: "We are currently on track to have the lowest voter turnout from Duke students since 2008. As of today, only 1200 of you have casted [sic] ballots in North Carolina, while over 4000 students voted in the 2010 and 2012 elections."]

Duke's VP of Public Affairs tells me the location was picked by Durham County's board of elections the university's input.
He says the location has drawn 5,000 voters including non-students since Oct. 27. He doubts location is responsible for low student turnout.

Duke students wrote university administrators and @DurhamCounty election officials in August expressing concern over the remote voting site.

--@KatzOnEarth
posted by zachlipton at 6:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

NYT Paywall suspended Mon.--Wed. #NextPost
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

Are they going to do news in that time or just wall to wall nothingburger garbage?
posted by Artw at 6:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

So you plan on punching a dick in the dick?

Yo dawg
posted by Cookiebastard at 6:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

So if you buy 1000 contracts of Kaine as next VP at $0.68 you would net $238 after the 50 fee to put in funds and the $32 fee to remove it. They won't let US accounts pull money for 30 days. So you are getting at 23% return in 35 days. Beats a CD.
posted by humanfont at 6:14 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh my god, this hero woman calls Mike Pence's office every day to report on her menstrual cycle:

Until that night in March, Laura Shanley was like many women who support women’s health rights but have not spoken out about it. But as the Carmel mother of one and her husband watched the news about Gov. Mike Pence’s approval of a bill that would expand the state’s already restrictive abortion laws, she decided she had to do something.

"If the governor is this interested in what’s going on in my body, I might as well call and tell him," she said. The next day, Shanley, 38, a preschool teacher and former social worker, did just that.

Speaking in her sweet Southern drawl, Shanley told someone at Pence's Statehouse office, “I just wanted to call and let the governor know my flow was particularly heavy today.”

Link to her FB group.
posted by acidic at 6:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [126 favorites]

So Jill Stein continues to prove that she is an absolute idiot:
Jill Stein finally went all in on being a spoiled, privileged jackass by publicly endorsing a Trump presidency over a Clinton one. Stein's Social Media Director, Jillian (last name not revealed) posted an ill-informed rant about the evils of Hillary Clinton on Stein's Facebook page:

"A Clinton presidency is D A N G E R O U S .
And no, I'm not just saying that because of her white-privileged faux feminism. Google it. My vote is indeed... going... to a woman (and a white one at that).
I do not want someone in office that knows the system the way Clinton does. If Obama can do what he's done, it scares the hell out of me to think about the damage and destruction Hillary will cause—and how much power the 99 percent will lose in the process."

Jillian rants about her unaddressed pet peeves for a while and how Hillary won't deal with them (even though she's spoken repeatedly about how she would) before getting to the money shot:

"So yes: If a Trump presidency would mean that we have to fight ignorants in the streets—I'm ready for that. I know that kind of racism. We already live in that kind of racism everyday—let's bring it to light and start calling it out."

If that isn't the definition of white privilege, I don't know what is.
posted by peacheater at 6:21 PM on November 3, 2016 [72 favorites]

Rebecca Solnit on Facebook:

So my friend Philip Heying in Kansas has a dark parable for you: In 2014 here in Kansas we had a moderate Democrat named Paul Davis running against our incumbent psychopath governor Sam Brownback.
Davis is a milquetoast, business friendly liberal . . . He alienated a lot of the left wing of the Democratic Party here by not taking a strong enough stand on social issues like gay marriage and hate crime legislation . . .

Brownback won by about 30,000 votes. . . . As of July 1st, 2017, I will have to allow concealed firearms in my college classrooms. Many of my personal friends, people my age, have NO HEALTH CARE, when they would if they lived in an ACA friendly state. Our roads are a mess. Hospitals are closing. Teachers are fleeing the state. Rural communities are being wiped out by economic strife and an associated methamphetamine epidemic. Profits are leaving this state in rivers of multinational corporate franchise profits. Our watersheds are being destroyed by rampant overuse of farm chemicals by desperate farmers trying to compete in a completely unregulated market.

None of this would have come to pass with Davis as governor and a rational legislature.

This is what happens when progressives sit on their hands, waiting for some perfect savior.

posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 6:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [147 favorites]

FBI examining fake documents targeting Clinton campaign: sources

The document, identified as a fake by the Clinton campaign, claims poll ratings had plunged for Clinton and called for “severe strategy changes for November” that could include “staged civil unrest” and “radiological attack” with dirty bombs to disrupt the vote.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

So yes: If a Trump presidency would mean that we have to fight ignorants in the streets—I'm ready for that.

So now we have two pro-civil-unrest candidates? Wonderful.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

The FBI vs. CIA split over the election is fascinating.
I knew that kind of thing all the way back from the 1967 satirical movie "The President's Analyst". (They did have to change the names to FBR and CEA to protect somebody). The FBR wanted to assassinate the title character and the CEA agent protecting him got along with a Soviet spy better than the guys from the other American agency (remember, they were Commies then). And the FBR agents wore boring black suits, even undercover. (Reason #44 to find that movie and watch it, maybe on election night)
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Somehow I don't think a rich old white woman is going to be the one finding herself manning the barricade with a spike club and makeshift gas mask. So when she says "If a Trump presidency would mean that we have to fight ignorants in the streets—I'm ready for that" she means "If a Trump presidency would mean that you have to fight ignorants in the steets-you'll be ready for that".

She's very gung ho about volunteering poorer, browner bodies for the struggle.
posted by Justinian at 6:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [67 favorites]

It seems telling that she wrote "fight ignorants in the street" rather than "fight ignorance in the street". The phrasing she used implies that people are unchangeable and can only be fought, as opposed to persuaded to change their minds or educated about the things they're ignorant about.
posted by Lexica at 6:37 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

The FBI split we've been talking about thus far has been FBI/DOJ, not CIA.

What is the FBI/CIA split over? I ask because a few of you have mentioned it and Jake Tapper also posted tonight (twitter): been hearing for weeks anecdotally about the CIA-FBI divide over this election.

What is that about?
posted by sallybrown at 6:38 PM on November 3, 2016

I suspect the fear may be that it would provoke a conservative anti-union backlash that could lead to greater Trump turnout/voting?

it's gonna provoke me into taking out republicans with flying triangle chokes from the top of independence hall is what it's gonna fucking provoke
posted by poffin boffin at 6:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

i tell you what
posted by poffin boffin at 6:39 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

What is that about?

Probably that large factions inside the FBI are in the tank for Trump while the CIA would prefer Clinton by a good margin. Different sorts of folks make up different governmental agencies.
posted by Justinian at 6:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

A note of warning on PredictIt (where I'm significantly invested). There are some markets which are "at their maximum number of traders". I transferred in a significant sum only to learn I couldn't put it on the Dems winning the White House and had to fall back on a low return contract. (Yes, I'm more than 92% convinced Obama won't be impeached before leaving office).
Once you are in a market however, it seems you can increase your stake. So, I recommend a small initial investment, and verify you can actually trade everywhere you want to. Also, the market is highly inefficient due in part to the 10% profit transaction tax. So look at yes and no versions of equivalent outcomes such as next president, next vp, party in White House, woman in White House.
posted by meinvt at 6:42 PM on November 3, 2016

Stop following 538. He's trolling you.

Worth noting that this criticism of 538 as overly volatile was voiced back in the 2012 election, so it's not special pleading this time around or anything.
posted by en forme de poire at 6:44 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Heritage Action officially calls for Supreme Court blockade if Clinton wins.

The conservative group Heritage Action is pushing Republican senators to keep the Supreme Court at eight justices if Democrat Hillary Clinton is elected president.

In a Thursday morning briefing at the Heritage Foundation’s Washington headquarters on Capitol Hill, the group said Republicans should embrace the idea of leaving the Supreme Court without its ninth justice, perhaps for as long as five years.

Fuck these people, forever.
posted by sallybrown at 6:44 PM on November 3, 2016 [55 favorites]

You know, I've done some of that fighting ignorants in the streets. Not as much as many people have, and I've always been protected primarily by white privilege and secondarily by fear-induced good instincts.

Let me tell you, it gets old after a while unless you're a very particular type of person.

But look: are people really going to put their money where their fucking mouths are? Are they planning on getting arrested or if necessary beaten and shot fighting the deportation of undocumented people or the internment of Muslims? If that's what the Greens are planning, they are still dumb as shit, because there are too few people, too poorly organized to make a difference in that way.

Otherwise, what Stein is talking about is "terrible things will happen to people of color and undocumented people generally, and we'll hold some rallies". "Lots of people will lose their healthcare in the Medicaid rollback, and several hundred people will commit civil disobedience!" "The Ryan budget will impoverish the elderly and create downward wage pressure as people put off retirement and...that's an abstract issue, so there's fuck all we'll do about it, and don't forget to vote Green again in 2020".

I've been around this stuff, and "fighting ignorants in the streets" is mostly a losing strategy. At best - at best! - it's a strategy where, at enormous personal cost to activists, you manage to render some state actions so expensive and inconvenient that the state stops them. Or maybe if you have massive popular organizing. But even there, the idea that you buy trouble for yourself by electing Trump when you can just as well fight a Clinton presidency in the streets is so massively stupid that I can't even stand it.

I've seen a lot of street protest by now, and participated in a reasonable amount. It's not useless, but it is very costly and tends to succeed only when paired with the ability to get either sympathetic or pressurable people into office.

It's romantic fantasy to think that "we" are going to "fight in the streets" against a Trump administration and win.
posted by Frowner at 6:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [94 favorites]

Can't see Trump allowing any more elections if he wins, either. Can you imagine him, in the office of president with all the levers of power to absue, actually allowing someone to run against him?
posted by Artw at 6:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Maddow just explained that Eichenwald's piece for Newsweek is going to be more (what sounds like) circumstantial evidence connecting Trump to the Russian hacking, including the tidbit that the Russians freaked out and stopped leaking when Trump attached the Khan family because they thought Trump would have to drop out of the election (guess Russian hackers have too high an opinion of Americans).
posted by sallybrown at 6:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Can't see Trump allowing any more elections if he wins, either.

I remember people here saying the same thing about GWB. It wasn't true then and I doubt its true now. Trump is a uniquely dangerous candidate, yes, but he isn't going to cancel elections.
posted by Justinian at 6:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I went to a texting night in Manhattan! Getting out the early vote in battleground states. Winnie the campaign dog was there.
posted by zutalors! at 6:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

...more (what sounds like) circumstantial evidence connecting Trump to the Russian hacking...

Ugh. That's a nothingburger by Trump standards. Back to the fetal position we go.
posted by Behemoth at 6:53 PM on November 3, 2016

Keep in mind that a large number of FBI agents start out their careers in local law enforcement which let's just say tends to skew towards the conservative side. There are no doubt divisions within the FBI that are more representative of the US as a whole or even potentially liberal but it's pretty clear that many of the field offices have a very conservative orientation. This definitely seems to be the case for the NYC FBI field office. FBI in the tri-state area seem to have good relationships with NYPD and US Attorneys and also have a massive preoccupation with counter terrorism.

While the CIA used to be more or less a exclusive Ivy League clubhouse back in the day it seems that ultimately the CIA has become staffed by pragmatists and quite frankly Trump makes their job way way more difficult and that's assuming Trump isn't a Putin puppet which is still somewhat plausible.
posted by vuron at 6:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Here's where Clinton will be between now and election day:

PA MI OH FL PA NH OH PA

As others have said Pennsylvania is almost entirely in-person on election day voting so it makes sense to concentrate on such states. But still.
posted by Justinian at 6:57 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm texting for Hillary right now! A+, would recommend for fellow introverts.
posted by yasaman at 6:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Don't curl up in a fetal position, phone bank. Save fetal position for the post victory hangover Wednesday; but only if you make calls.
posted by humanfont at 6:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

@Impolitics This will always be remembered as the presidential election in which the KKK, the KGB and the FBI all supported the same candidate.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 6:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [173 favorites]

it's gonna provoke me into taking out republicans with flying triangle chokes from the top of independence hall is what it's gonna fucking provoke
posted by poffin boffin

you take independence hall and i ll take the liberty bell. psst you'll have to show me what a flying triangle choke is but whothehell pb i m in
posted by Wilbefort at 6:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Clinton's career as SoS was pretty CIA-compatible, unfortunately - her office's actions in Haiti and Honduras were straight out of the "suppress dissent, suppress progressive reform" playbook that they always break out for the Caribbean and Central America. I'm sure that CIA enthusiasm for her is at least as much about her actual foreign policy history - since those people aren't dummies - as it is about competence or dislike for Trump.
posted by Frowner at 6:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Stop trying to correlate Clinton's movements with tea leaf reading.

Clinton and surrogates are actually going to specific states to support the down ballot candidate more than the risk of Pennsylvania going for Trump.

McGinty vs Toomey is a very critical race for winning back control of the Senate.
posted by vuron at 7:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

There seems to be some confusion as to the idea that vote trading was invented just for this election, when TFA from Vox mentions that it came up as early as 2000. Surely New Mexico and Florida could've benefited from that then.

Florida was supposed to be a lock for Gore. The traders were trading AWAY Gore votes in Florida. I know as I traded my Nader vote to someone in Florida.
posted by waitingtoderail at 7:03 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I knew that kind of thing all the way back from the 1967 satirical movie "The President's Analyst".

One of my favorite films, holding up surprisingly well despite its era of origin.
posted by Bringer Tom at 7:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Slavoj Zizek endorses Trump
posted by bukvich at 7:07 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

NYT Jim Messina (Obama 2012 campaign manager): The Election Polls That Matter

With just days left in the 2016 presidential election, Americans are wondering if polling is accurate or if we’ll see a Brexit-style shock.

It’s not just voters who ask these types of questions. On the eve of Election Day in 2012, as the campaign manager for President Obama’s re-election, I was asked to meet him at a rally in Milwaukee.

“Gallup has me down by three points, and other polls have me trailing, tied or with a slight lead,” the president said. “Your models have this race basically over. Why are we right and they are wrong?”

The best campaigns don’t bother with national polls — I’ve come to hate public polling, period. In the 2012 race we focused on a “golden report,” which included 62,000 simulations to determine Mr. Obama’s chances of winning battleground states. It included state tracking polls and nightly calls from volunteers, but no national tracking polls.

In Milwaukee, I assured the president that the golden report was predicting a victory, with 332 electoral votes. On Election Day, that was the exact number of electoral votes the president won.

Today, campaigns can target voters so well that they can personalize conversations. That is the only way, when any candidate asks about the state of the race, to offer a true assessment.

Hillary Clinton can do that. To my knowledge, Donald J. Trump, who has bragged that he doesn’t care about data in campaigns, can’t.

Basically, relax and trust the internal numbers, which are based on "little data" that target specific voters and their past voting records, rather than crappy likely voting screens.
posted by zachlipton at 7:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]

In re Stein and street protest again: the vast, vast majority of the time, we just do not have enough people who can afford to take militant action that we can disrupt anything. Remember Gulf War II? There were massive, massive anti-war marches around the world - the freeway was entirely full of people here in MPLS and I've never been in a bigger demo as far as I can recall. And what fucking good did it do? If everyone had been willing to have a general strike and/or go to jail and/or physically fight the cops, we might have been able to inconvenience the government enough to get them to change strategies. But for a variety of reasons, people did not do that and were totally unlikely ever to have done it.

Similarly with the vast majority of street protests I've been part of. If your goal is to influence policy in general, or to change one aspect of a situation, and you're really willing to go to the mat, and it's not really in the state's interest to crush you, you can achieve something - particularly if you're formally or informally partnered with policy-oriented activists, and particularly if you're focusing on a local issue. But if your goal is to stop something big when it's in the strong interests of the state to do it, you will not win.

This isn't a society where we fight it out by faction in the street, or even a society where we currently have mass organizations to mobilize people. General strikes have never gotten much traction in this country, and they (or other mass actions that are basically like general strikes) are the most powerful "stop this now" options we've got.

Voting is what we've got. Should things be different? Sure. Can they be different? Possibly. But right now the primary way to prevent, say, an escalation in private and state-led racist attacks on immigrants is to vote down the white nationalist candidate. Trying to prevent that in the streets instead of at the voting booth will work intermittently and locally, but at a huge cost and the end result of only helping some people. I mean, I have been in street confrontations with white nationalists, and I know a bunch of people who cut their teeth politically on such kind of thing. It isn't as fun as you'd think, and the real problem is that it isn't nearly as effective as you think.
posted by Frowner at 7:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [42 favorites]

McGinty vs Toomey is a very critical race for winning back control of the Senate.

Especially as Bayh keeps getting hit with solid (deserved) oppo. Ugh. It's like rooting for the hot lunch to be mystery meat.
posted by sallybrown at 7:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Slavoj Zizek endorses Trump

Zizek is a fool, and a joke, a plagiarist to boot. I'm not at all surprised that he's basically outing himself as an edgelord.
posted by dis_integration at 7:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

Fascism is a helluva drug.

@DavidCornDC
So Trump is under investigation for fraud, admitted to committing sexual assault, was caught lying about mob ties-and FBI agents favor him?
posted by chris24 at 7:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [30 favorites]

Slavoj Zizek endorses Trump

Well, we all know just how great [spat Frowner, bitterly and sarcastically] Zizek is on women's issue and race, so I guess that settles matters. Trumpalump for me!
posted by Frowner at 7:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

Someone once said that America can always be relied upon to do the right thing – having first exhausted all other alternatives. America, it’s less than a week to voting day. Your alternatives are now exhausted..
posted by Behemoth at 7:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [14 favorites]

So, being officially in a (light) Red State, I've not been terribly impressed with the much-vaulted Clinton voter database: even today, doing the official GotV calls, I still got one person who was definitely a Trump supporter.

That said, I did get one success! One person I talked to had just had surgery and so they had mobility issues they'd never had to deal with before. They were definitely a supporter, but they weren't sure they'd be able to deal with the lines at the polls this year. I consulted with my coordinator and we got them set up with a plan to go do in-person absentee voting at one of the more accessible locations in town!

So that's one more vote in the bag for Clinton, at least.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 7:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [55 favorites]

That Zizek plagiarism thing is hysterical. The story I read is he employs ghost writers and the plagiarism was in a ghost piece.
posted by bukvich at 7:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Zizek is just...he's tiresome. "Edgelord" is just the right word for him - that relentless, theory-bro but-actually-Lacan-and-or-Stalin awesomely-radical routine, plus the dudely disdain for feminism and queer activism if either ever presents any challenge to edgelording it up. He didn't always used to be this way - it was the fame, I think. Not that you can't see traces of it in his work pre-2000, but nothing like he is now.

He's basically everything that sucks about the European left, kind of the like the feeling I got from time that I discovered that a bunch of super-cool super famous Greek anarchists were huge rape apologists.
posted by Frowner at 7:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [45 favorites]

Quite the post over at balloon-juice.com:

The Maskirovka Slips Part III: Kompromat
Back on October 20th, Thomas Rid reported out an excellent piece of long form journalism on Russian meddling in the US election at Esquire. Rid’s piece specifically focused on kompromat or compromising materials and hacking. Specifically releasing blended real and fabricated materials to achieve one’s strategic goals. Rid’s piece zeros in on the frightening combination of Russian/Russian sponsored hacking and the release of kompromat materials.
posted by NoMich at 7:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

I guess you can't really expect Zizek to go with something other than "sharpen the contradictions."

Actually, I was counting on Zizek finding another, uncovered layer of thesis--antithesis to hand wave about. "A Trump win will push the major parties back to basics and plus Hillary is no great shakes" is kinda weak.
posted by notyou at 7:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Zizek is kind of fun at times but in this case he's also completely misreading the realities of American culture and thinking that American conservatives are more or less like European conservatives in that ultimately they would step in and prevent Trump from going overboard.

But the reality is that European Conservatives are more or less closer in orientation to Clinton than the modern Republican party. Electing Trump is like voting for the UKIPs or the National Front for the disruptive nature of what would happen.

In this case Zizek is falling into the accelerationist argument that a powerful jolt to the system like electing a misogynist who plays around with White Nationalism would result in an equal and opposite response such as revolutions.

However revolutions are rarely bloodless and it takes a cruel calculus (and frankly the security blanket of privilege or the simple phenomenon of "i'm glad it's happening over there") to want one. Yes Clinton is implicitly supporting the current status quo but the consequences of a Trump presidency in terms of real and lasting harm to many population groups within the US is simply unacceptable. A revolution doesn't get started by putting a fascist into power.
posted by vuron at 7:28 PM on November 3, 2016 [17 favorites]

Powerpoint presentation produced in DNC v. RNC litigation for VA GOP election officers and poll watchers - pdf link
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Zizek is just...he's tiresome.

But what about his exciting hot take on the election? “I’m horrified at Trump. But I think Hillary is the true danger.”

It's almost as good as "NO, YOU'RE A PUPPET."
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:30 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

The combination of "don't vote for her because we'll impeach her and it'll be chaos" with the British right-wing tabloids' vilification of senior judges as "enemies of the people" clarified something for me today: when you have revanchist movements that look to a past that never existed, they also fabricate institutional norms. Or dispense with them entirely. There are no moderate Republicans in this re-imagined 50s: there are Dixiecrats and Joe McCarthy and the vindicated mob.
posted by holgate at 7:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [26 favorites]

Florida was supposed to be a lock for Gore.

Yeah, and he won it.

Hey, who's signed up to pee on Scalia's grave this week? I'm feelin' micturious.
posted by petebest at 7:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]

Wait was Zizek actually trying to put forth a Hegelian Thesis-Antithesis-Synthesis argument there with the idea that Trump coming to power would force rational actors in the Republican party and Democratic party to team up and fight crime... err Fascism? If so that was like the laziest form of a dialectical argument I've seen in ages.

Doesn't anyone consider the possibility that fascism could just win, and then everyone would be stuck with it? I mean, a fascist US would be terrifying, particularly if working together with a fascist Russia. They could reasonably take over the world.
posted by Mitrovarr at 7:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [21 favorites]

As bad as they are, Trump and the far right don't mutter about reconquering lost territory or settling old scores with America's neighbors. (Russia is a different story.) That's one difference between OG fascism and whatever is happening now. So there's a little ray of sunshine.
posted by theodolite at 7:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Princeton Election Consortium

As of November 3, 10:07PM EDT:
Snapshot (206 state polls): Clinton 314, Trump 224 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +2.7%

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 97%, Bayesian 99%

Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.5%,
Nov. control probability: Dem. 68%

/TTTCS
posted by petebest at 7:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

No but we do have a history of excusing things as "manifest destiny."
posted by Andrhia at 7:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Could he lose NH? Sure. Could he win NH and lose Nevada or North Carolina and thus the election? Sure. But this "The race being close is media spin, it's in the bag, GO TEAM!" is... wrongheaded. It's, again, how Romney was blindsided.

I'm baffled by how much people are struggling with this analogy. In 2012, all major poll aggregators showed Obama with a small but significant lead. There was a movement by Republicans - inside and outside the campaign - to "unskew the polls" because they didn't think Obama's lead was real. They were explicitly critiquing the fact that all the polls, in aggregate, showed Obama winning. Right now, just like 99% of the past year, Clinton is winning in all of the aggregated polls. She's winning all of the major national polls and she's ahead in all of the states she needs to win plus a few she doesn't. The most pessimistic aggregator has her ahead by at least 2% in states that get her to 270. Obama won all the states he was up by 2% in in 2012 on that very same aggregator. There is, quite simply, no reasonable argument to the idea that Trump is winning right now or that there is any modern precedent to somebody with this consistent a lead at this late stage going to lose. To argue otherwise is to take the Romney 2012 position.

Anything could happen. Some unimaginable scenario between now and close of polls on Tuesday that upends reality itself. No pollster can model that. The discussion people are having in trying to interpret the poll aggregators is not about whether Clinton is winning, but by how much.
posted by one_bean at 7:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]

Trump singling out Katy Tur at his rally

Katy Tur's response.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:59 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

I was just polled by Gallup, and the questions were weird. Specifically, the caller asked if I've heard or read anything about Hillary or Donald in the last day. Since most of my media is filtered through MetaFilter, I quickly tried to think of anything of substance I heard or read about either person. Sadly, I blanked on Hillary's significant fund-raising in recent days, or her positive polls, and just said "more about emails." But for Donald I said "sexual harassment," so I felt like I nudged something, maybe. Plus, I said (and believe) she's highly capable in high-stress situations, and things of that sort, and said Donald was not highly capable in those situations.

The caller didn't say I shouldn't discuss the polling questions, but I feel a bit like I'm talking about an active court case as a juror.

kirkaracha: Trump singling out Katy Tur at his rally

Katy Tur's response.

Wait, Trump jokes with reporters about how what he says about the media not covering his campaign is a joke? And no other reporters have said this in the open? That's what caught my ear.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [6 favorites]

As bad as they are, Trump and the far right don't mutter about reconquering lost territory or settling old scores with America's neighbors. (Russia is a different story.) That's one difference between OG fascism and whatever is happening now. So there's a little ray of sunshine.

There's less than a week to go, what are the odds that Trump suggests invading Canada?
posted by indubitable at 8:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Here. Is. The. Deal. Tho. If the USA votes out Democracy in favor of strongman Autocracy, we'll be OK. Most of us. The Strongman will cater to what he decides are our wants and needs, and we will mostly be satisfied with that. The USA will remain a power on the world stage.

We just will cease to be a Democacy, and an example of how the greatest of powers must be governed by a consensus of its citizens and not by decree from the Powerful to the Ordinary.

We are perilously close now, where one political entity has declared it will never respect consensus, nor take part in it, and has made good on that for eight years running.

If Donald J. Trump wins, it is the end of the Great American Experiment. He is the very epitome of "One Man, One Vote, One Time."

America the Nation will carry on, thrusting its chest out at the other Great Powers. America the Great Nation, the Shining City on the Hill, the imperfect Republic striving for better, the huddled masses yearning to be free? Yeah. There's a Wall instead now.

I know you are voting. Get other people to go vote with you. It's important.
posted by Slap*Happy at 8:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [33 favorites]

The USA will remain a power on the world stage.

If Trump made good on his bloviating about tariffs and protectionism, he would plunge the US into a recession that would make the GFC look like a time of beer and skittles.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Here. Is. The. Deal. Tho. If the USA votes out Democracy in favor of strongman Autocracy, we'll be OK. Most of us. The Strongman will cater to what he decides are our wants and needs, and we will mostly be satisfied with that. The USA will remain a power on the world stage.

I really, really don't think so. I think the economy will crater immediately, be damaged further by an incompetent response, and this will cause mass civil unrest. There may be a civil war, or the autocrat will start an external war to defuse internal tension. It might go nuclear. Honestly, I think the best-case scenario twenty years down the line is a third-world civilization in the ruins of a first-world one, and the worst-case is a live-action Fallout re-enactment.
posted by Mitrovarr at 8:14 PM on November 3, 2016 [18 favorites]

As bad as they are, Trump and the far right don't mutter about reconquering lost territory or settling old scores with America's neighbors.

It depends upon how exactly they interpret the "take their oil" stuff Trump has said. I spoke with one military veteran who, in response to discussion of unrest in the Middle East, said "I don't know why we don't just make the Middle East part of the U.S."

When I pointed out that granting everyone in his hypothetical annexed region of the Middle East the Constitutional rights of U.S. citizens would actually make it more difficult to solve problems in the ways he was proposing solving them, his responses made it clear that he was imagining something more like a region of subject peoples, or a Philippines-type protectorate or something.
posted by XMLicious at 8:15 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Also, Trump is exactly the kind of never grown up six year old who might really start a nuclear war in a fit of pique. And the C&C people have already weighed in to let us know there is nothing to stop him if he wants to, because all the mechanisms are weighted to make it easy to launch, because he might only have ten minutes to make the decision if there's a first strike by someone else and you can't have a lot of lollygagging while the missiles might be flying.
posted by Bringer Tom at 8:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

Hard to be a power on the world stage without a world.
posted by humanfont at 8:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [10 favorites]

The ludicrous nature of arguing against Clinton's clear lead at this point is further accentuated by all of the Early Voting information we are seeing in the battleground states. Everything on the ground at this moment seems to suggest that not only is Clinton winning under current polling LV assumptions but there are significant signs that EV turnout is actually up in most battleground states and groups that are traditionally discounted in most LV screens such as first-time voters and many Latinx voters are actually turning out in record amounts. When you account for demographic shifts and increased voter turnout there is a very real possibility that the current projections are actually dramatically under representing the level of support for Clinton in a way similar to the Obama 2012 projections vs Obama 2012 actual vote.

And that's also ignoring all the twitter chatter from various campaign experts who have access to internal data from all the micro-focus GotV tools. Plouffe and others have been consistently confident of Clinton getting 300+ EVs and considering how expertly Obama For America handled 2012 I think they know their shit.

In comparison the Trump campaign seems to be hostile to analytics altogether and increasingly turning to a narrative that Trump's likely loss is not due to him being a complete awful candidate but rather the result of Clinton "rigging" because the Republican party seems utterly dependent on the idea that Democratic administrations are inherently illegitimate which I guess is how they plan on managing their role as the permanent opposition party moving forward.
posted by vuron at 8:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

Oh yeah, and we are all forgetting the time bomb in the atmosphere, global warming. If the US government falls to autocracy that's a 30-40 year time, minimum, before anyone can do anything about global warming (like, to even slow the acceleration of it). That puts you straight into the 'no Florida' and 'large areas of equatorial land become uninhabitable' scenarios.
posted by Mitrovarr at 8:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

Also, I wouldn't read too much into the early voting statistics. I think many democrats are voting early because they expect violence at the polls. Republicans will not expect this and thus early voting may not reflect later turnout.
posted by Mitrovarr at 8:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

Susan Sarandon may still be... well, Susan Sarandon, but Tim Robbins has endorsed Clinton and written a HuffPost piece to Bernie or busters.
posted by chris24 at 8:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [16 favorites]

>Dang though, I bet Romney would be pissed if it turned out McMullin was the White Horse. All "Egg?! The prophecy was about EGG?!?"

I know this is f-a-r up-thread now, but just in case anyone was wondering: The White Horse Prophecy.

FYI this is a super-common topic of conversation and trend of thought in Utah and in Mormon circles, even though it is semi-discredited and officially disavowed.
posted by flug at 8:23 PM on November 3, 2016 [11 favorites]

>The fact that the presidency could conceivably be decided by Congress voting, one vote per state is just like, what the actual fuck on so many levels.

The thing is, you can't have a tie. That is the worse possible outcome--a tie with no clear way to resolve it.

So they set up some method to insure that a tie will never happen. It could be flipping a coin, it could be playing rock-paper-scissors, fight a duel, whatever. Their version of this is, let the House vote. Personally I would go for any of a coin, rock-paper-scissors, OR (best of all) a duel over letting the HOUSE of all people vote, but that's just me . . .
posted by flug at 8:29 PM on November 3, 2016

Facebook post from a user named Scott Melker:

As many of you know, I attended the University of Pennsylvania with Donald Trump Jr. I feel compelled to share this story before the election, in the hopes that it will shed a bit of light on the kind of person that Donald Trump is, and the kind of son that he raised.

I was hanging out in a freshman dorm with some friends, next door to Donald Jr.'s room. I walked out of the room to find Donald Trump at his son's door, there to pick him up for a baseball game. There were quite a few students standing around watching, trying to catch a glimpse of the famed real estate magnate. Don Jr. opened the door, wearing a Yankee jersey. Without saying a word, his father slapped him across the face, knocking him to the floor in front of all of his classmates. He simply said "put on a suit and meet me outside," and closed the door.

Donald Jr. was a drunk in college. Every memory I have of him is of him stumbling around campus falling over or passing out in public, with his arm in a sling from injuring himself while drinking. He absolutely despised his father, and hated the attention that his last name afforded him. His nickname was "Diaper Don," because of his tendency to fall asleep drunk in other people's beds and urinate. I always felt terrible for him.

I am voting for Hillary Clinton for a number of reasons, her opponent notwithstanding. However, in light of what I saw that day, it is clear to me that Donald Trump lacks the temperament and basic social decency to run our country.

There are people in the comments confirming that they (and Melker) went to college with DJT Jr., but not that specific story. Sad but not surprising.
posted by sallybrown at 8:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [94 favorites]

I'd love to see privileged lefty social media managers try to take up armed action against the Right, but probably not for the same reasons they have in mind... and it's not worth burning the world down for a brief and terrible spectacle.

I really want to slap these people with a pile of history textbooks. Revolution is bloody, terrifying, and nearly always slaughters their utopian vision in its crib.
posted by BS Artisan at 8:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

"So yes: If a Trump presidency would mean that we have to fight ignorants in the streets—I'm ready for that."

"Some of you may die, but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make." - Lord Farquaad
posted by happyroach at 8:31 PM on November 3, 2016 [43 favorites]

Susan Sarandon may still be... well, Susan Sarandon, but Tim Robbins has endorsed Clinton and written a HuffPost piece to Bernie or busters.

The times they are a changin' back.
posted by phearlez at 8:36 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

Facebook post from a user named Scott Melker:

Broken link?
posted by eviemath at 8:39 PM on November 3, 2016

Here. Is. The. Deal. Tho. If the USA votes out Democracy in favor of strongman Autocracy, we'll be OK. Most of us. The Strongman will cater to what he decides are our wants and needs, and we will mostly be satisfied with that.

I also strongly disagree with this. What is baffling to me about much of the discussion here and elsewhere is how adamant everyone seems to be that talk about a dictatorship is hyperbolic, despite everything that Trump himself has said, despite everything his voters say, despite the police & FBI, despite everything. And in a dictatorship there is NOONE who is safe. No person.

There are CLASSES of people who may be priviledged, as it were, but in a dictatorship belonging to the safe group is completely fluid. Moreover, the notion that white people, or white men, or even Trumpists themselves are somehow impervious is completely misguided.

A dictatorship needs an escape goat, vulnerable people who are easy targets, and by now it's pretty clear who that is, an enemy to function as a pretext for occasional brutal strongman action (again, I think it's obvious who the candidates are), and a method to keep various groups who could unite in opposition against you at odds with each other (and in this regard he is getting massive help from people who, given their stated ideals, should oppose him very firmly). Powerful and influential potential rivals are NOT to be tolerated - and in a dictatorship everyone powerful and influential is a potential rival. And the most powerful and influential GROUP in the US, as in most other places, are men, white men.

So, while I agree that probably as a group white men (and possibly Trump voters) will be as per usual more privileged than most, I predict that should a Trump win really herald the birth of a dictatorship (even a laissez-faire one), you will see huge numbers of your priviledged, safe connationals destroyed.

I grew up in a dictatorship, and that is what happened. I haven't studied dictatorship, but what i read about that in other places, this seems a constant. This video linked earlier this weak in an Ask gives a good overview.

If a dictatorship lasts more than a few years, there is literally noone who is safe. And unsafe in a dictatorship is something that someone who grew up in a non-dictatorship cannot even fathom.

I also agree with Mitrovarr's second point. This would not be any odd 'this too shall pass' dictatorship. This comes at a time when we are at a possibly lethal crossroad for our species. This is in a country which could obliterate billions of people if it so chooses.
posted by miorita at 8:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [48 favorites]

Facebook post from a user named Scott Melker:

Broken link?

Looks like he deleted it...here is the tweet where I found it.
posted by sallybrown at 8:47 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

As an academic who works at a very teaching-heavy institution, Slavoj Žižek is the epitome of everything I dislike about the culture of big research institutions.

“If you don’t give me any of your shitty papers,” Žižek told students at The New School in New York—who may have matriculated at that institution for the sole purpose of working with Slavoj Žižek—“you get an A. If you give me a paper, I may read it and not like it, and you can get a lower grade.”

The only thing worse than having to actually teach classes, Žižek insists, is the indignity of holding office hours. “Here in the United States, students tend to be so open that sooner or later, if you are kind to them, they even start to ask you personal questions, [share their] private problems; could you help them, and so on. And what should I tell them? I don’t care. Kill yourself. It’s not my problem.” The Žižekophant giving the interview laughs at this, hard.

(The article goes on to note that he has been accused of filling up office hour meeting time sheets with fake names.)
posted by dhens at 8:49 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

A dictatorship needs an escape goat

Everyone needs an escape goat.

Boring party? Ride that escape goat on out of there.

Boss droning on in a meeting? Giddyup, Billy!

Stuck in traffic? ONWARD, ESCAPE GOAT!
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [72 favorites]

Claiming that "God's will" matches the wishes or predictions of any particular human media or other group: extreme hubris.

yeah, God told me personally they're all full of shit. He said "q, those guys are all full of shit, imma send my guy donald to humiliate 'em, and then they shall know that I am God".
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 8:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

_{Metafilter: Zizek's argument is not particularly compelling to me}

I'm so sorry.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

A dictatorship needs an escape goat

Miorita, I like your comment, but I also wanted to say that this is a fantastic typo. I really want an escape goat. I picture myself riding it away from all this mess, probably in company with someone riding a nopetopus. I am picturing mefites thundering away on a vast herd of escape goats and nopetopi.
posted by Frowner at 8:54 PM on November 3, 2016 [46 favorites]

In the doom and gloom of the previous post I forgot a very important thing I've been wanting to say for a while: thank you from the bottom of my heart for the huge effort you have put into this election.

I've been sitting and reading (most) of every election post since early this year and I am, for months now, overwhelmed with gratitude at what you are doing. It literally feels like you guys are fighting for the fate of the world (I know that sounds overwrought, but I genuinely think that this is one of the most important events that has faced humanity in the last many thousands years, and I am far from being the only non-USisn who feels this).

Edit 'cause I'd gobbled up the ending there.
posted by miorita at 8:55 PM on November 3, 2016 [28 favorites]

Miorita, I like your comment, but I also wanted to say that this is a fantastic typo.

Frowner, why I left it, actually (that and the edit window had closed). As long as I can make myself smile, all is not lost; I can always set off into the sunset on my escape goat...

Everybody needs one.
posted by miorita at 9:01 PM on November 3, 2016 [24 favorites]

Zizek is a pathetic fraud.
posted by Coventry at 9:02 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

As a US citizen what is my best option for betting on this election?

I'm moved half of my small bit of savings back into an equities index fund, banking on a Hillary victory rally. Gotta say it's been a nervous week since I did that Monday, though.
posted by msalt at 9:04 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

The Best Time I Pretended I Hadn’t Heard of Slavoj Žižek
posted by OHenryPacey at 9:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [25 favorites]

So lately I've been "fighting the ignorants" on Facebook and Quora (I know), which obviously accomplishes nothing except to let me burn off some anxiety and rage. Of course I've encountered many people in the Fox/Breitbart bubble whose world views are bizarrely self contradictory (one person said that the media NOT covering Trump's Russia connections is proof they're rigged for Clinton?) but the most amazing detachment from reality has to go to the person who said that Trump's upcoming trial for fraud was a lie made up by CNN. I mean, even Trump admits this trial is happening.
posted by ejs at 9:08 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

Escape goats.

Will go (almost) anywhere, great for snuggling.

Hmm, I might need one to cope with post-election trauma.
I've given them as gifts and they're so soft...
I need to stop before I talk myself into this indulgence.
posted by Superplin at 9:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

I had a shitty parenting day the other day. My kids came home from school November 1 and the kindergartener said, "Today we talked about Thanksgiving and what we're thankful for, and [classmate] said she's thankful that they just got their electricity back because it was broken for two months!" And my second-grader said, "Mom, did you know that humans are warming the climate by burning too much fossil fuel? We learned that in science today!" And I was like, Jesus Christ, can we finish this election and elect Hillary and a Democratic Senate already and get some action on childhood poverty and climate change? (Or, perhaps more to the point, not get some action from the GOP that actively increases childhood poverty and the likelihood of the planet turning into Venus?)

On a different, lighter note, I read a profile of IL Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth the other day, who lost both her legs in Iraq and had one of her arms very badly injured, talking about her history, including the injuries, and when she was rehabbing at Walter Reed, her mobility goal for her arm was "Be able to put my hair in a ponytail" and I was like "YESSSSSSSSS." Representation matters, because only another woman would understand the crucial importance of ponytail ability! (Long-haired dudes get it, but they don't get it.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:11 PM on November 3, 2016 [72 favorites]

There aren't enough lifegoats on this ship.
posted by Behemoth at 9:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [29 favorites]

One thing that hadn't occurred to me, via Tommy Vietor: the FBI runs the maximum-disclosure background checks for White House staff. So there's that, if there really is a corner of the NYC office which reprts directly to Giuliani.
posted by holgate at 9:15 PM on November 3, 2016

Slavoj Žižek is the epitome of everything I dislike about the culture of big research institutions.

You think one eccentric Slovenian rock star performance artist fake scholar at the New School represents the teaching standards of typical faculty at R1s? I met with 5 undergrads today about their honors thesis projects.

That was an unfair dis.

And hell the New School isn't even an R1.
posted by spitbull at 9:16 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

So, ultimately, I think you should vote for who you would actually like to be president.

The problem is that in our current voting system, by doing this, you may end up making it more likely that your most reviled choice becomes president.

(That's a double layered quote, I don't know how to clarify that...)

But I think you and I have some different assumptions about third party voters. I don't think that most Jill Stein voters ACTUALLY want Jill Stein to be president. They want Hillary Clinton to be president, they just want personally to vote for Jill Stein at the same time. Maybe because they personally dislike Clinton, maybe because they want to support the Green party generally or the cause of environmentalism, or just on the principle of third parties generally.

That's why you see third party voters talking about things like "oligarchy" or whatever. That's the definitely of a protest vote: I know the person I'm voting for won't win, but I don't want to vote for the main candidates. It would truly be interesting if you could give someone the actual option of voting for a third party candidate or Hillary Clinton, with the knowledge that their vote would actually decide the presidency. Which would they choose?

I think especially in this election, what third party voters really want is for Hillary Clinton to be President. They don't want Trump. But they are either voting strategically in favor of a cause they support or they can't bring themselves to vote for Clinton. So when I say vote for who you actually want to be President, I mean who you actually want to be running the country. Vote as if your vote is the deciding vote. Vote as if your grandchildren are going to ask you who you voted for in this historic election.
posted by threeturtles at 9:17 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

"“Here in the United States, students tend to be so open that sooner or later, if you are kind to them, they even start to ask you personal questions, [share their] private problems; could you help them, and so on. And what should I tell them? I don’t care. Kill yourself. It’s not my problem.”"

Twice I had freshly-arrived British advisers (once in college, once in grad school) I had to go to for routine administrative stuff (forms signed, etc.) when I was having crises -- once a really traumatic death in the family, once a financial aid screw up where I was afraid I was going to end up homeless -- and I'm a teary person so I ended up teary in their offices and apologized profusely: "I'm sorry, I'm just really stressed." and BOTH TIMES the guys said a variation on, "Don't apologize! I've heard that if Americans think you're a good professor they'll cry in your office!" (One of them later went and told the department secretary how flat-out excited he was to have a student cry in his office because he felt accepted and helpful and she of course immediately told me and was like, "That's the happiest he's been since he's arrived!")

GLAD TO HELP.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [121 favorites]

why a CIA vs. FBI split?

CIA agents are internationalists, they know people from other countries and go there and like things about them. They are also undoubtedly AGHAST that Trump is openly cooperating with Russia destabiliization efforts, openly asking for the hacking of Clinton campaign emails (which he got, you notice) etc.

I don't understand quite why that doesn't bother FBI agents, but Trump did give more than a million dollars this year to the charity run by ex-FBI NYC bureau chief (now Fox News commentator) Jim Kallstromm. Note: why isn't THAT investigated for pay-to-play?

And for leaks, since Kallstromm is openly claiming to speak for dozens of current and former agents on national TV. It's against FBI policy for Kallstromm to speak at all to active agents about current cases.
posted by msalt at 9:21 PM on November 3, 2016 [34 favorites]

Ha ha ha, Eyebrows, that's so cute.
posted by Coventry at 9:23 PM on November 3, 2016

Also my concern over vote trading is that it may encourage MORE third party votes in swing states. If someone hears that a bunch of people have agreed to vote Democrat in, say, Florida instead of third party, I'm afraid they may feel it's more acceptable for THEM to then vote third party because everyone else is ensuring the right outcome overall. And then the people who agreed to vote-trade go back on their promise and Florida dooms the fucking country again.

Umm, 2000 election PTSD, no, what are you talking about?
posted by threeturtles at 9:24 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

> The military line about why they voted McNuggets, rather than Hillary, is that if workers out at Hill Air Force Base used private email, they would be in jail.

Yes, I get this a lot from my Utah relatives who happen to have some kind of military connection, too. it is completely wrong--so far as I understand the law--but it's hard to shake them off it.

Part of is that they *do* work hard to put the fear of the Lord and/or the MPs in you, when they indoctrinate you in the importance of keeping secrets etc. Those kinds of presentations scare you (because they are designed to) but they may not be 100% factually accurate in every way from the legal point of view.

If you ask them to name someone who did a similar type of thing that Clinton did and was actually prosecuted, they can't, of course. Because there aren't any.

BTW the funny thing about the Clinton email server is that the whole thing happened in the same time frame as the Snowden leaks. When essentially every possible thing in the State Department's classified system was actually leaked to the whole wide world.

Compared to that, Hillary's private server looks like a veritable fortress of security . . .
posted by flug at 9:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [20 favorites]

Gosh. Can you imagine if Clinton gave a million dollars to a charity run by someone who was regularly getting on TV slamming her opponent?
posted by R343L at 9:25 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Slavoj Žižek is the epitome of everything I dislike about the culture of big research institutions.

You think one eccentric Slovenian rock star performance artist fake scholar at the New School represents the teaching standards of typical faculty at R1s?

Not to derail, but no, I don't think that, having done my PhD at an R1 and worked with many dedicated educators. What I say is that he is the epitome of everything I dislike (not "everything") in the culture of research institutions. I will point you to this anecdote that I talked about a few years ago. (The candidate in question got her PhD from the university where fun goes to die.)
posted by dhens at 9:26 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

And anyway Zizek is appointed at NYU and U of Llublijana in Slovenia. At NYU he is a global distinguished prof, which means he comes and goes as he pleases and doesn't even teach classes as such.

He's a celebrity outside academia. I don't know anyone in critical theory-literate circles who takes him at all seriously.
posted by spitbull at 9:27 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

I just can't stop chuckling over the Macedonia story. This comes across as far more resentful and American imperialist than I intend it, but the US pours at least half a billion dollars into aid to Macedonia, does the democracy promotion song and dance, preaches the joys of capitalism and free markets, drives agreement on the Ohrid Framework for peace, and specifically gives grants to promote broadband access and build computer labs in schools. In response, a bunch of enterprising young Macedonians create fake US news websites with made-up stories about the election, get them to go viral on Facebook, and cash their AdSense checks from Google, paid for by advertisers pushing their own scams on gullible Americans, quite possibly all using a computer or internet connection the US helped put in place.

And Republicans complain foreign aid is ineffective. I'd say we did a damn excellent job teaching them capitalism.
posted by zachlipton at 9:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [45 favorites]

From Silver's latest ode to click bait:

There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall. And it’s come in New Hampshire, a state that we said a couple of weeks ago could be a good indicator of a Donald Trump comeback because of its large number of swing voters. Three new polls of New Hampshire released today showed a tied race, Trump ahead by 1 percentage point and Trump up by 5.

There have been six other polls of NH released in the past 24 hours that he manages to omit. You'll never guess who's ahead in those.
posted by one_bean at 9:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

OK, good news, bad news. First the good (or reassuring) news.

We've all been worried about endless congressional investigations and impeachment proceedings. But remember that if Democrats eke out the Senate, that not only stops monkey wrench investigations, but it gives the good people a chance to launch their own investigations e.g. voter suppression.

I would particularly like to see hearings pressing the NY FBI office about the obvious bullshit going on there, like the $1.23 million payment that Trump gave former NYC bureau chief Kallstrom right before a bunch of leaks started coming out of his old office -- things Kallstrom talked about on national TV, even admitting that he is violating FBI policy by talking to agents about a current case. Rudy Giuliani (who employed Kallstromm at his previous law firm) needs some time on the hot seat, under oath, as well.

How about their dismissal of Russian ties to Trump, such as disregarding the evidence of secretive server communications because "there might be an innocuous explanation"? I'd love to see say Bernie or Elizabeth Warren grill them on why this obvious excuse doesn't apply to donations to the Clinton Foundation for programs to help the poor. Gee do you think there might be an innocuous explanation for those donations?
posted by msalt at 9:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [32 favorites]

Even in the year of Brexit and Trump, South Korea might win for most bananas political meltdown.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [8 favorites]

Is Twitter classified as a private server? I wasn't completely honest about why I don't tweet. I think it is stupid, the closest I come to it is posting in a long thread on Metafilter.

I don't think the FBI has any business posting information on Twitter. The FBI isn't sexy, isn't all today, is not hip, it is the freaking FBI. The FBI belongs on its own web site, and all info out of them should come off of it. Not twitter. For one thing, that is so easy to forge, it is so easy to put up a digital plaque and look official. That group, the FBI, composed of gazillions of dedicated individuals, and support staff, and undercover agents, do not tweet. A platform like twitter has to be full of holes, and the idea that a government agency who deals in secrecy, uses a Swiss cheese public platform for anything is ill advised. It also leaves plenty of room for miscommunication.

The FBI doesn't get to have an attitude about who our president is.
posted by Oyéah at 9:42 PM on November 3, 2016 [9 favorites]

I think especially in this election, what third party voters really want is for Hillary Clinton to be President.

This really isn't my experience. At least in my circle of acquaintances, the people voting for Jill Stein have said that they really prefer that she become president because they like her policies better, and aren't just voting Green as a general show of support for third parties. They may not believe she can win, but they seem to be voting their honest opinion. I think suggesting that they really want Clinton to be president is not going to be very persuasive to such a voter and in fact could backfire.

If someone hears that a bunch of people have agreed to vote Democrat in, say, Florida instead of third party, I'm afraid they may feel it's more acceptable for THEM to then vote third party because everyone else is ensuring the right outcome overall.

I'm kind of skeptical, at least without some kind of evidence. Postulated moral hazards don't always materialize. And my intuition is that if someone cares about not tipping the balance of their state in the first place to the point that they had decided not to vote third-party before hearing about the trades, they are probably already either participating in a trade or voting one of the two main parties.

(The trades also aren't new, as you point out. In 2000, one of the big voting exchanges got shut down before the election by the California Secretary of State; it was legal federally, but because states can regulate their elections any way they see fit, the legal environment was much less clear. I suspect that may actually be a bigger reason than moral hazard for why more people didn't trade in '00.)
posted by en forme de poire at 9:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

There have been six other polls of NH released in the past 24 hours that he manages to omit. You'll never guess who's ahead in those.

There haven't been, so far as I can tell, 9 polls of NH released in the past 24 hours. Where are you seeing this?
posted by Justinian at 9:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

In a fascist or otherwise Chekist^{_^} state, the FBI are the ones who get to become the secret police while the CIA has to deal with the international fallout of stupid stuff Trump does.
posted by XMLicious at 9:48 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

There have been a lot of election threads and many, many comments and sometimes they have perplexed me and sometimes they have vexed me but I have never, in all these threads, in these godzillabytes of discussion, run into anything that left me truly speechless and aghast.

office hour meeting time sheets

WHAT DARK MADNESS IS THIS?!
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:50 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Dare I ask what the current value of the JCPL is?
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:50 PM on November 3, 2016

$20 same as in town was I fast enough?
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:51 PM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]

$20 same as in

crap
posted by mazola at 9:52 PM on November 3, 2016 [31 favorites]

Dare I ask what the current value of the JCPL is?

Moderate, down from high! Only because it's hard to maintain your cortisol levels so high all the time without dying. I'm sure they'll spike again with the next set of polls.

(I still can't find all these other NH polls. I do see a SurveyMonkey thing but that's only one and not actually a real poll.)
posted by Justinian at 9:53 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

$20 same as in ...

ROFL!
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:55 PM on November 3, 2016

if all we need is an escape goat...
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

For all you folks freaking out, here's something to soothe your fears - Beyoncé Will Reportedly Join Jay Z At Hillary Clinton Rally Tomorrow:

CBS News reports that Beyoncé will be joining her husband at the Cleveland State University rally, according to a source who overheard the news. The show is part of the Clinton campaign’s ongoing efforts to encourage black Ohio voters to turn out at the polls next week; hopefully it works.

posted by palindromic at 9:58 PM on November 3, 2016 [22 favorites]

P.S. Every time I visit metafilter (which over the past couple of weeks, has been, uh, a lot), I am reminded how I love this place and the people in it. (Really, I mean it.) My heartfelt thanks.
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:00 PM on November 3, 2016 [27 favorites]

Looks like Talking Points Memo will be a good place to check out Tue night:

We will have live election results in every state for not just the presidential election, but every congressional race in the country, with breakouts down to the county level. We have one addition that I think real elections junkies and numbers nerds we'll really like. Even if you're neither you may find it very interesting. In each jurisdiction down to the county level, alongside the live election results, we'll have the results from that county from the 2012 presidential election.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:05 PM on November 3, 2016 [12 favorites]

office hour meeting time sheets

WHAT DARK MADNESS IS THIS?!

A thing students would write their name in in a given block in order to have a guaranteed meeting with a busy prof? Like scheduling a doctor's appointment, except first-come-first-served.

(Did you maybe think that I meant some kind of punch card for getting paid a wage or something?)
posted by dhens at 10:06 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I'd just like to join the pro-escape goat chorus. My husband is constantly bothering me to let him get a goat. If I ever give in, I will name it The Escape Goat.
posted by threeturtles at 10:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

There are six polls ending Nov. 2 (click on the arrows next to "Dates", three show Clinton ahead, one shows Trump ahead, and two are tied (one that Silver skews to Trump).
posted by dirigibleman at 10:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

We will have live election results ...

Also on Tuesday, emergency rooms around the country will be filled to capacity by people having nervous breakdowns from watching the highly detailed Talking Points Memo live broadcast....
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:10 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

I just found on facebook I waited 96 years which apparently was linked a couple threads ago. But here it is again because it's cheering and wonderful.
posted by R343L at 10:12 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

Did you maybe think that I meant some kind of punch card for getting paid a wage or something?

I kinda thought you meant something that you would use to demonstrate to the powers that be that you were doing enough... office-hour-ing... which seems just ugh if I'd wanted a boss evaluating my performance metrics I'd have made entering the corporate world my primary action item
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:13 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

The actual NH numbers from this week are all over the place. The T+5 (on 48) from ARG is out of whack with anything that has come out of the state, and they're all smaller samples than earlier polling. Hillary has added an event on Sunday in Manchester, so make of that what you will. Again, no early voting, and a key Senate race where today's polls favoured Ayotte, though in some she lagged Trump and others she did better than him.
posted by holgate at 10:16 PM on November 3, 2016

Yeah, there's been some chatter on Twitter about weird party response rates on some of those NH polls. Obviously, you don't want to cherry pick and play unskewing, but they may have been a bit off.

Worth sending Obama up to try and get Hassan over the finish line anyway.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:18 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yeah, the polls out of NH have been mostly low quality lately. I hope Sam Wang or Silver or whoever writes a post mortem about why there has been so much garbage polling this cycle as compared to 4 or 8 years ago. I'm sure the answer is that good polling is expensive... but it's getting ridiculous. SurveyMonkey shit is not an acceptable substitute for calling 1000 people and asking them who they are voting for.
posted by Justinian at 10:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

entropicamericana: "Now picturing Hillary Clinton as Marion Ravenwood."

"Yeah, I'll tell you what - until I get back my country, you're going to get more than you bargained for. I'm your goddamn president!
posted by Chrysostom at 10:20 PM on November 3, 2016 [13 favorites]

No, at one of the colleges I attended profs would have sheets posted on their doors with slots during their office hours and you would sign up for a slot if you needed to see them. That way you don't have a pile up of students in the hall or whatever.

I assume he was filling in all the slots with fake names so he could avoid dealing with any actual students.
posted by threeturtles at 10:29 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

No, at one of the colleges I attended profs would have sheets posted on their doors with slots during their office hours and you would sign up for a slot if you needed to see them. That way you don't have a pile up of students in the hall or whatever.

I assume he was filling in all the slots with fake names so he could avoid dealing with any actual students.

exactly, yes
posted by dhens at 10:30 PM on November 3, 2016

dhens: I will point you to this anecdote

Depending on the context, yeah, a high level PI's gonna see teaching undergrad lectures as a waste of their time.

They'd rather be teaching graduate students (or writing grants, or - FSM forbid - doing actual work/research).
posted by porpoise at 10:31 PM on November 3, 2016

My friend tells me she had a dream last night that we were watching the election, and Michigan was called for Trump, and I didn't care, and that's how she knew it was a dream, because if that should come to pass in the real world, I would instantly transform into Richard Sherman's anti-Crabtree diatribe but reciting Madeline Kahn's 'flames on the side of my face' monologue instead of talking about football.

also in the dream she couldn't vote because her PayPal account balance was too low
posted by palindromic at 10:35 PM on November 3, 2016 [7 favorites]

An Only Goat is a lonely goat, but I imagine an escape goat would fix that!
posted by eviemath at 10:36 PM on November 3, 2016

SurveyMonkey shit is not an acceptable substitute for calling 1000 people and asking them who they are voting for.

The YouGov polls seem pretty okay; 538's pollster ranking gives them a solid B. But I'd like to see more gold-standard polling as well.
posted by en forme de poire at 10:36 PM on November 3, 2016

That said, professors who've agreed to teach as x% of their contract should make a bona fide attempt to teach - and all the attendant background work that's involved.

There are teaching professors and there are research ones. (slightly) different worlds.

So it's completely different in the humanities, eh?
posted by porpoise at 10:38 PM on November 3, 2016

From Silver's latest ode to click bait:
There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall... Trump ahead by 1 percentage point and Trump up by 5.
There have been six other polls of NH released in the past 24 hours that he manages to omit. You'll never guess who's ahead in those.
posted by one_bean at 9:33 PM on November 3 [4 favorites +] [!]

So I read your comment to a couple of friends who were over at my place this evening. One of them knew exactly the article you referenced, found it on his phone, and read to me the very next sentence that you yourself omitted:

There are some qualifications here: The poll showing Trump with a 5-point lead is from American Research Group, a pollster that’s had its issues over the years. And other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.

He then told me to stop reading Metafilter and follow Nate Silver instead. I could hear the mic drop in his words.
I trusted you, one_bean. I trusted you, and I quoted you from Metafilter in a real-life conversation, and look what happened: one of my friends immediately shut your quote down and shattered my faith. Possibly forever.
The skies are darker.
Even my cats are looking at me differently now.
I don't know how I'll get over this.
*hangs head in shame*
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:40 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

I hope Sam Wang or Silver or whoever writes a post mortem about why there has been so much garbage polling this cycle as compared to 4 or 8 years ago.

I think Nate Cohn at NYT's Upshot (the other Nate!) has done some interesting work with its Siena polls drawn from voter roll data (to try and emulate internals) but that's definitely not cheap, and not doable in many states given the varying amount of public registration data.
posted by holgate at 10:43 PM on November 3, 2016

I assume he was filling in all the slots with fake names so he could avoid dealing with any actual students.

Okay, that's at least being an asshole in a way that makes a certain asshole sense.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:46 PM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]

There are some qualifications here: The poll showing Trump with a 5-point lead is from American Research Group, a pollster that’s had its issues over the years. And other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.

He then told me to stop reading Metafilter and follow Nate Silver instead. I could hear the mic drop in his words.
I trusted you, one_bean. I trusted you, and I quoted you from Metafilter in a real-life conversation, and look what happened: one of my friends immediately shut your quote down and shattered my faith. Possibly forever.

I didn't quote that part because I didn't feel like it was fair to make Nate disqualify his own argument. The entire lede is (paraphrasing) "we always said Clinton would be in trouble if NH looks bad for her." The only evidence he has for NH looking bad is the three recent polls he cherry picked. Then he admits she's still ahead by 2 to 3 points. Then he says Obama won all his states he was up 2 in. But "Clinton could be in trouble if she's doing badly in NH but she's not doing badly in NH" doesn't get the same eyeballs.
posted by one_bean at 11:09 PM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]

I love how the interpreter at @HillaryClinton's Raleigh event was signing @KatyPerry's "Roar."

--LJSelsky

Check out the video. I wasn't aware that the Clinton team was hiring interpreters for her events, but I'm not super-surprised. Not sure if she's had them at every single event all along, but she's had interpretation at other recent events too. My searching has yet to turn up any evidence of Trump providing such accommodations at his rallies.
posted by zachlipton at 11:19 PM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]

The Chelsea Clinton event here in Seattle a couple weekends ago had sign interpreters for the entire program. They signed the introductory music program (Seattle Girls Choir).
posted by R343L at 11:32 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]

...Not long ago, I had occasion to write of the divide in virtue that separates us from Shakespeare, making the point that Shakespeare believed in fate, order, and forgiveness, whereas we believe in history, justice, and compassion, and that, superior though our moral progress may seem, there are bitter truths in the old trinity. For, as Shakespeare would have grasped at once, there is no explaining Trump. He is one of those phenomena that rise regularly in history to confound us with the possibility—and black comedy—of potent evil: conscienceless, cruel and pathologically dishonest. That evil magnetizes followers of all kinds is another permanent truth. Overexplaining its rise is as foolish as pretending that it can be easily defeated. The threat it makes to an order that, however imperfect, is worth sustaining and defending reminds us of that order’s fragility. As to forgiveness, much will be demanded, even if the best happens—or the worst, at least, is avoided.

Why Trump Is Different —And Must Be Repelled
posted by y2karl at 11:43 PM on November 3, 2016 [19 favorites]

Why Trump Is Different —And Must Be Repelled
An article that would have done much more good a couple decades ago, but back then his financial, legal and sexual "antics" were just considered "colorful" or even "comical" by the "Liberal" Media. Thanks, guys. By the way, he isn't really so unique, and a generation of potential evildoers aren't just following him; they're working on emulating his "success".
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:56 PM on November 3, 2016 [5 favorites]

I assume he was filling in all the slots with fake names so he could avoid dealing with any actual students.

Okay, that's at least being an asshole in a way that makes a certain asshole sense.

Heywood Jablome needs a lot of help, ok
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:57 PM on November 3, 2016 [15 favorites]

Phonebanking update:

As zachlipton said above, there's a Florida script under States now, and I highly recommend making Florida calls!

I spoke with a number of people in Florida who were absolutely planning to vote for Hillary; were open to the idea of early voting but hadn't really planned on it (so a little nudging from me may have really helped); and hadn't considered the Senate race really at all, so a few talking points about the Senate race could really make a difference.

It feels so good to call swing states - and it really might make the difference between a Senate that will work with Hillary or a Senate that won't. Call Florida! Call Colorado! Call Arizona! Nevada! North Carolina!

Right now, MeFites United is in 6th place for the week (we were 8th this morning) and 3rd place for all calls since they launched the teams. We're ALMOST up to 100 team members.

I'm so proud of you!
posted by kristi at 12:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [38 favorites]

>JCPL

Jean-Claude Pan Lamme?
posted by Sutekh at 12:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Justinian Current Panic Level, a running MeFi measure of the state of the race.
posted by chris24 at 12:17 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Nah, it's too busy being looking for all the Jews Dwarves.

"On April 24, 2013, at 11am, someone comes into my office and says, 'Donald Trump just tweeted: 'I promise you I'm much smarter than Jonathan Leibowitz—I mean Jon Stewart—who, by the way, is totally overrated,'" Stewart recalled.
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:28 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Ooh, we've got the Zizek choice now? Excellent. His contrarian take was soooo unexpected too.

Just to keep the deep thinkers for Trump train a-rollin', here's Camille Paglia's take on the election.
posted by gusottertrout at 12:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Things continue to look good in Nevada.

@RalstonReports:
Huge day for Dems in Clark County. Dems won by nearly 6,000 votes (18,122-12,328). Mr. Trump, they have built that firewall above 60,000.
posted by chris24 at 12:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

I think Nate Silver's model is now tuned to making him millions of dollars via clickbait rather than accurately predicting the election. The guy turned into a media member invested in the horse race long ago.
posted by benzenedream at 12:56 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Some philosophers just want to watch the world burn. From a reasonably safe distance.
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Colbert on Trump telling himself on stage to stay "nice and cool." ("Easy, Action" references to West Side Story need to be made more often.) "It is like West Side Story because both candidates are from New York, and much like the Jets, Trump is about to rumble with Hispanics."

psst. down here for the real reason for this comment. Hamiltrash: You can listen to a couple new tracks from the mixtape right now!
posted by zachlipton at 2:39 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Omg, that Colbert bit about Xeno-gurt, the alternative for people who like yoghurt but don't like the people who make it: "In stead of active cultures, Xeno-gurt has one monolithic culture that never changes."

I mean it's probably just the nerves (not only wrt what's happening in USA but in recent times here in Europe, too) but somehow that got me laughing until I was in tears.

Like, real tears.
posted by sively at 2:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

Ah, we meet again LA Times tracking poll.

I will not miss you when you are gone!
posted by Justinian at 3:26 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Considering the new name of the LA Times' parent company, this might be better described not as a tracking poll, but rather a Troncing poll.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Before the Žižek derailette is shut down, and as long as people are interested in throwing virtual fruit, I'll mention that according to people on the critical theory scene who knew him before he was a rockstar (I had to hack fonts in order to typeset his name, it's that long ago), he has a distractingly lax approach to personal hygiene. Which is, sadly, the only thing I could think of as his fame grew and he began to turn up on the media a lot more.
posted by Grangousier at 3:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

> Colbert on Trump telling himself on stage to stay "nice and cool."

Tbh when I first read about Trump's soliloquy at that rally, it reminded me of the ending of "The Jinx" but without the burping.
posted by moody cow at 3:46 AM on November 4, 2016

Ugh. Pittsburgh's liberal* paper, the Post-Gazette, just endorsed Toomey over McGinty for Senate a day after endorsing the odious Mike Turzai to keep his PA house speakership. I don't know what the hell they're thinking.

* They're liberal compared to the Trib which is the late Richard Scaife's propaganda project.
posted by octothorpe at 3:58 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Way upthread somebody asked about the ability for Philly folks to get to the polls:
People are having really long commute times to work. One of my students had to leave class early to pick somebody up. Another person didn't come to class because she had to drive her son somewhere. One of my students said that getting into the city via car is terrible.

Now, most Philly folks would start crying if T were elected, so I'd guess folks are highly motivated. But the millennial in my classes are not excited.

So if you are enthused, your boss is on your case because you're getting in late, you barely see your family because of the horrible commute, and by the way, PA is looking pretty safe anyway.

So I can see where it would have an impact
posted by angrycat at 4:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

God I have never before in my life wanted so badly for someone to just bitch slap Camille Paglia so hard it makes her head ring. Like, the next hot grad student girl she inevitably sexually harasses at a conference, just swing a haymaker at her and knock her to the floor.

Zizek and his increasingly fascist shitposting... of course he doesn't bathe. This remains the most accurate and comprehensive commentary on Zizek as a thinker and as an individual I've ever seen. His bullshit in this election was not just predictable but perfectly classed by Dorothy Thompson's "Who Goes Nazi?" essay:

Mr. G is a very intellectual young man who was an infant prodigy. He has been concerned with general ideas since the age of ten and has one of those minds that can scintillatingly rationalize everything. I have known him for ten years and in that time have heard him enthusiastically explain Marx, social credit, technocracy, Keynesian economics, Chestertonian distributism, and everything else one can imagine. Mr. G will never be a Nazi, because he will never be anything. His brain operates quite apart from the rest of his apparatus. He will certainly be able, however, fully to explain and apologize for Nazism if it ever comes along. But Mr. G is always a “deviationist.” When he played with communism he was a Trotskyist; when he talked of Keynes it was to suggest improvement; Chesterton’s economic ideas were all right but he was too bound to Catholic philosophy. So we may be sure that Mr. G would be a Nazi with purse-lipped qualifications. He would certainly be purged.

God. Both of these people are so repulsive. Just trash.
posted by moonlight on vermont at 4:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [27 favorites]

The "funny" thing about Paglia and Zizek for me was that I didn't even have to look to know what their take would be. Once I saw Zizek's had been posted I wrote out my Paglia comment and then googled to find out what she actually said.

It suggests that the deep analysis behind their thinking is basically just whatever common liberal attitudes are, go in another direction to get noticed. The Slate model of writing basically.
posted by gusottertrout at 4:19 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Oh, and for my own giggles, I long ago decided that whenever one is mentioned, I'd try to bring up the other to try and get people to think of them as one, 'cause that would piss both of them off if it caught on and eventually they'd have to go at each other just to prove who had the better hot takes.
posted by gusottertrout at 4:23 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

> I hope Sam Wang or Silver or whoever writes a post mortem about why there has been so much garbage polling this cycle as compared to 4 or 8 years ago. I'm sure the answer is that good polling is expensive... but it's getting ridiculous. SurveyMonkey shit is not an acceptable substitute for calling 1000 people and asking them who they are voting for.

> The YouGov polls seem pretty okay; 538's pollster ranking gives them a solid B. But I'd like to see more gold-standard polling as well.

Nate Silver has noted that internet panel polls have been favoring Trump this election season compared to traditional telephone polls, and he's been pretty wary of them. He updates his pollster ratings when he has election results to compare them to. If the internet panel polls do turn out have some sort of sampling bias that favors Trump voters, their ratings will drop next week.
posted by nangar at 4:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

sheets posted on their doors with slots during their office hours and you would sign

At my lazy-assed hate-to-teach R1 we make them guess when we are in the office.
posted by spitbull at 4:47 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I dreamed it was election night and they'd already called Nevada for Hillary

Waking up was a crushing disappointment
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Depending on the context, yeah, a high level PI's gonna see teaching undergrad lectures as a waste of their time.

They'd rather be teaching graduate students (or writing grants, or - FSM forbid - doing actual work/research).

I know this is off-topic, but I can't let this pass. Teaching undergrads isn't a waste of a professor's time, it's one of their fucking core duties, no less than teaching grad students, writing grants, or designing experiments. Professors acting like they're somehow too good to teach undergrad leads to students getting shitty educations and feeling like the scientific elite holds them in contempt, which is bad for science and bad for society.

Teaching undergrad classes is "actual work," and it's one of the main things that professors are supposed to do. If a professor only does research-related activities then they're only doing half their job, which makes them a shitty professor.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 4:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [55 favorites]

Also regardless of his philosophy idk how anyone could take one look at any photo of Zikek taken at any point, including his wedding photos, and NOT realize that he wasn't super into the whole hygiene thing
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:55 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Žižek takes Freud, Lacan and Marx seriously. That's a combination of psychological pseudoscience, political and economic pseudoscience, with a dose of misogyny thrown in. It's enough for me to ignore anything he says, and have questions about anyone who takes him seriously.

(I'm not dating him and he's not my roommate, so I don't care about his grooming habits.)
posted by nangar at 5:15 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

eviemath, re the Donald Trump Jr At College story, you probably need to be logged in to Facebook to see it. I can confirm the text sallybrown posted is the same. Some more anecdotes from the comments:

Amanda Johnson Ferguson
Thank you, Scott. I have and have always had a lot of respect for you. Not that I needed any convincing or another reason to NOT vote for Trump. But I have been waiting for someone from our Penn class to share their memories with regard to this family.

Cameron Greenlee
Hey Scott, ironically enough I was Eric's RA in boarding school, & pulled him out of quite a few a$$ beatings. Eric was never anything other than respectful/neutral to me, and grateful in the times I looked out for him..
Then his dad came to give a speech on career day, and his glorious bottom line was that all of us be grateful for what we had, because he was bankrupt and the hobo on the street was 1mil richer than he was. I think Ivanka relayed the same flat story in some interview. T Sr. never once came to the dorm to see his son.

Thanks, Don, thanks for the inspiration. 😐

Emily Jay Seikel
I always found Jr. to be very creepy at the Fiji house my freshman year.

Andrea and I were regulars there that whole year. Wasn't pretty.
posted by iffthen at 5:25 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Žižek takes Freud, Lacan and Marx seriously.

Don't forget Hegel
posted by thelonius at 5:27 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I always found Jr. to be very creepy at the Fiji house my freshman year.

I didn't know anyone in it, but Fiji had the reputation at my school of being the "creepy" frat to begin with, so this might not be saying much.
posted by LionIndex at 5:30 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Or it might be saying quite a lot, if even among creeps Don Jr. stood out as creepy.
posted by hangashore at 5:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

So last night my husband spun a top on our home bar. It was a good spin, but nothing out of the ordinary. He was playing pool and I was reading and ten minutes later he looks over to me and says "hey, it's still spinning" but no. No. That top spun until it stopped, perfectly balanced and upright.

I'm sorry everyone I'm so sorry we are stuck in my subconscious where Trump is running for president and I can't wake up fuck you Christopher Nolan.
posted by lydhre at 5:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [60 favorites]

I'm sure Zizek's view of the election has great influence over the critical voting block of first year philosophy majors at Amherst, but no one else gives two fucks.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

it's one of their fucking core duties

Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. Just like some professors also never publish but only teach. I could mock a professor at a Happy Valley liberal arts college or a community college for never publishing because they have a 3-3 load but I'd be missing the essence of their job. The requirement to teach undergraduates is not inherent in the title "professor" -- and certainly not in the rest of the world outside the US.

Using crazy Zizek to dump the old "omg profscam!" calumny on R1 faculty is patently silly. Academics do many different kinds of work, in different balance depending on context and ambition and expectations of their institution.

The best undergrad teacher I've ever known was also the most famous professor I studied with as an undergrad, and phenomenally productive of research and public work. That was Stephen Jay Gould, and his teaching changed my life. He found time to correspond with former undergrads long after we left college, and that was before email. He loved teaching and so do most serious scholars I know (20 years at an R1, reviewed many other departments, chaired my own).
posted by spitbull at 5:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [30 favorites]

Pretty decent jobs numbers in this morning's report, so that's some more good news.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:47 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

OK, guys, it's a separate FPP right now, but I really want to emphasize how soothing a balm PredictIt has been for me. Yes it's an open sewer commenting system, where you get a bunch of wannabe-alpha-male-Trumpists swinging their dicks around, but the important part is, the loudest ones are the ones with absolutely no grounding in statistics, polling, or the electoral college. This is literally your chance to go and take away their lunch money. Go bet on Trump not getting to 370 electoral votes (a scenario which would require that national polls be off by something like 6.5%, or a meteor hitting the Clinton household, which are equally likely outcomes), and bask in your certain knowledge of a ~11% return.

Go ahead, read all the comments at the bottom, and chuckle at the obviously doctored videos they're posting that they're sure will spell the end of Hillary. Then take their money, and laugh. Then go vote, and we'll torpedo this asshole.
posted by Mayor West at 5:47 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Y'all, relax. When I was in southern Brazil a couple of weeks ago my colleague explained to me a plant-based election forecasting model that one of his employees uses. I asked if he would apply it to the US oresidential election. In six replicates, Hillary was the winner every time (P < 0.001). We've got this in the bag.
posted by wintermind at 5:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Has this shown up here, yet? As Trump Ally, Rudy Giuliani Boasts of Ties to F.B.I.

[Giuliani's] most remarkable claim is that he has a pipeline into the Federal Bureau of Investigation and that agents tell him they are “outraged” that they have not been able to bring Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to justice.

posted by Coventry at 5:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

You're right spitbull, and I was speaking too broadly. I don't want to perpetuate this derail further, but I'll acknowledge that there are many professors even in the US for whom teaching undergrad is not a core duty. The phenomenon of professors feeling like they were hired to do research and train grad students and resenting their contractual undergraduate teaching duties is a real one though, so I stand behind my earlier comment albeit with the caveat that there are indeed many professors to whom it doesn't apply. </derail>
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:53 AM on November 4, 2016

certain knowledge of a ~11% return.

Except that PredictIt takes 10% of profits plus 5% of redemption, so you're really looking at ... 6.5%ish I think? Are you really gonna toss in $100 to make $6.50 thirty days from now?
posted by uncleozzy at 5:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Ha, Fiji. Of course Donald Junior's a Fiji brother. Fraternities come and fraternities go, but there is, AFAIK, only one fraternity which, if it were ever to reincorporate, would immediately be served a bench warrant for manslaughter, and that is the MIT chapter of Phi Gamma Delta.

So I guess they have a pretty evil reputation everywhere, huh?
posted by jackbishop at 6:00 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

So a few years ago Cote d'Ivoire had a civil war because there were a number of polling irregularities and neither presidential candidate would admit that they had lost the election. It took a very long time for votes to get counted, there were a bunch of complications, and the upshot was that after 3,000ish deaths, lots of violence, and a significant internally displaced and refugee population, the international community threw itself behind Alassane Ouattara, the current president of Cote d'Ivoire.

The other presidential candidate, Laurent Gbagbo, was arrested and is currently being tried at the International Criminal Court. Many members of his party, the Force Populaire Ivorienne (FPI) are also being tried in various courts for various crimes against humanity.

Yesterday, FPI endorsed Donald Trump: "Allez @DonaldTrump_FR! A nous la maison blanche!"
posted by ChuraChura at 6:01 AM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

certain knowledge of a ~11% return.

Except that PredictIt takes 10% of profits plus 5% of redemption, so you're really looking at ... 6.5%ish I think? Are you really gonna toss in $100 to make $6.50 thirty days from now?

And although it's run by a university* in my home town here Downunder, it STILL charges a $40 fee for non-US users.

________
*Seriously? I know the education sector is hurting, but this is a bit of a desperate way to get research funding.
posted by lollusc at 6:02 AM on November 4, 2016

Not that we need any further proof of how fucked-up the NY FBI office is, but here it is anyway:

Tensions had been thick between New York and Washington for months, dating to disagreements over how to handle the case of Eric Garner, the 43-year-old black man who died after being put in an apparent chokehold by a police officer. Officials in the Justice Department’s civil rights division wanted to move forward with a case against the police officer, but New York-based agents and prosecutors vehemently disagreed, according to people familiar with the case.

Sounds like the entire office just needs to be removed, branch and root, and built back up from scratch.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Sources: U.S. intel warning of possible al Qaeda attacks in U.S. Monday

And guess who the source is? An unnamed FBI official. This has gotten absolutely insane, they're not even trying to hide their machinations now. Just throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks.
posted by ejs at 6:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

So I guess they have a pretty evil reputation everywhere, huh?

Yeah no. Lots of places Fijis are the good frat. As far as frats go.
posted by chris24 at 6:03 AM on November 4, 2016

1. The metafilter Zizek derail is by far the most interesting thing I have seen even remotely related to the 2016 president election in well over a week.

2. I want to differ with spitbull's statement that nobody in the academy takes Zizek seriously. In Paul Fry's Yale Literary Criticism course (link) Zizek is mentioned more than any other living writer and in the search inside his book Amazon cites 20 occurrences of Zizek. Fry may be the only one but 1>0.
posted by bukvich at 6:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

@ddiamond

Under Obama

Private-sector jobs: ↑ 11,243,000

Government jobs: ↓ 344,000

Source: @BLS_gov

Remember this every time some conservative (Trump supporter or not) tries to tell you that Obama has implemented, or is trying to implement, some form of socialism or "European-style" society.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:06 AM on November 4, 2016 [47 favorites]

oh ha ha I'd forgotten about a possible terrorism scare.

this election is so stupid, and yet I've managed to more or less forgotten ISIS and climate change, which is ridiculous

what if we're all part of some intergalactic game, where one team is trying to maintain earth's living conditions while others are trying to fuck it up

I've had this thought much too often
posted by angrycat at 6:07 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

also John Hockenberry is sort of freaking out on WNYC, talking about David Souter's comments about the death of democracy and Brexit and it's basically like Yeats's "Second Coming," except the beast doesn't have the head of a lion but rather an orange demented angry face.
posted by angrycat at 6:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

[Giuliani's] most remarkable claim is that he has a pipeline into the Federal Bureau of Investigation and that agents tell him they are “outraged” that they have not been able to bring Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to justice.

The thought of Giuliani being perp-walked in front of the national press and sent to Club Fed to rot for the rest of his days because of his connections to the FBI is delicious.
posted by zombieflanders at 6:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

what if we're all part of some intergalactic game, where one team is trying to maintain earth's living conditions while others are trying to fuck it up

What if?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

RE: the FBI. It's overwhelmingly a middle-aged white male organization. 83% white, 80% male. Shocking they'd be all in for Trump.

As U.S. pushes police to diversify, FBI struggles to get minorities in the door

"The FBI, which is part of the Justice Department, has long struggled with recruiting special agents of color into its ranks. Of the bureau’s 13,455 agents, only 606, or 4.5 percent, are African American, according to the most recently available statistics. Only 6.8 percent are Hispanic.

At the top levels of the FBI, only 5 percent of officials, most of whom came from the ranks of special agents, are African American. Only 2.8 percent are Hispanic."
posted by chris24 at 6:14 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

I know this is off-topic, but I can't let this pass. Teaching undergrads isn't a waste of a professor's time, it's one of their fucking core duties, no less than teaching grad students, writing grants, or designing experiments. Professors acting like they're somehow too good to teach undergrad leads to students getting shitty educations and feeling like the scientific elite holds them in contempt, which is bad for science and bad for society.

The problem is that teaching undergrads isn't what universities award tenure and advancement for- it doesn't generate publishable papers, so from a pragmatic standpoint spending your time teaching undergrads instead of researching and writing is, in fact, a waste of your time if you don't want to be an adjunct forever. It's a stupid and sick set of incentives.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:17 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Eichenwald's latest Newsweek article on Trump is up, "Why Vladimir Putin's Russia is Backing Donald Trump".
posted by papercrane at 6:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Matt Yglesias has an article on Vox regarding Hillary's email. It's a nice summary if you need a handy thing to point for someone who would benefit from a simple Clinton email explainer.

This is unfortunate because emailgate, like so many Clinton pseudo-scandals before it, is bullshit. The real scandal here is the way a story that was at best of modest significance came to dominate the US presidential election — overwhelming stories of much more importance, giving the American people a completely skewed impression of one of the two nominees, and creating space for the FBI to intervene in the election in favor of its apparently preferred candidate in a dangerous way.
posted by chaoticgood at 6:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

I want to differ with spitbull's statement that nobody in the academy takes Zizek seriously

I'm not in the academy, and when I was I wasn't in the humanities, but I took him pretty seriously once, until I heard him talking about a topic I've studied seriously myself.
posted by Coventry at 6:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

it's basically like Yeats's "Second Coming," except the beast doesn't have the head of a lion but rather an orange demented angry face.

A comparison Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has made a few times in the past.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 6:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

an escape goat

Ladies and Gentlemen, and other sentient, literate MeFites, what we have uncovered here is pure gold. I hereby nominate Qidnunc the Escape Goat as mascot of the MetaFilter sportsball team.

All those in favor, post a comment or lurk. Opposed, send your preferred mascot name on a 3x5 card to the retired-FBI partisan hack of your choice no later than Thursday of last week.

Votes will be tallied me banana, when daylight come an me wan' go home.
posted by petebest at 6:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Sounds like the entire office just needs to be removed, branch and root, and built back up from scratch.

Whoa there, comrade! Are you some kind of STALINIST?
posted by indubitable at 6:26 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

petebest: Rigged!
posted by Coventry at 6:27 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Under Obama

Private-sector jobs: ↑ 11,243,000

Government jobs: ↓ 344,000

Source: @BLS_gov

I saw a bumper sticker yesterday that said "Obama put the country in the toilet and Hillary is going to flush it." I've even heard my dad say "Obama has brought this country to its knees."

It's so weird how some people are living in an entirely different reality.

Fox News's Merica
posted by Fleebnork at 6:30 AM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

It's a stupid and sick set of incentives.

Only if you don't see the mission of the university as producing research. Again, in my view this is a false dichotomy. Undergrads who come to an R1 (ought to) do so to be around professors doing leading edge research.

And by the way, at any R1 I know, your teaching record certainly affects your tenure chances.

I feel like this is a 30 year old argument. As I said, most of the top flight scholars I know love undergrad teaching. I know I do. I devote 6 hours a week to one-on-one undergrad advising, teach an additional three undergrad classroom hours every week (with class sizes between 15 and 60), and stay in touch with former undergrads for many years as I often continue to advise their careers and write letters for them well into grad school years. I did that before I got tenure too. And I am hardly unique.

If you want to focus on undergrad teaching there is a career path for that. If you want to attend an institution focused on undergrad education, there are thousands of options. If you want to get a BA at a major research institution then expect your faculty to be seriously motivated by their research which forms the basis for most of our teaching.
posted by spitbull at 6:30 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

And by the way, at any R1 I know, your teaching record certainly affects your tenure chances.

Yes... when I was in grad school the Undergraduate Teaching Award was affectionately known as the "kiss of death" for tenure-track professors.
posted by Coventry at 6:33 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

On the FEC website, how can I look up the contributions Bernie Sanders' campaign fund has made since he conceded the nomination?
posted by Coventry at 6:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

In a better world, there would be enough funding and departments would have enough discretion to decide for themselves how their faculty should interact with undergrads and - perhaps! - even make those decisions based on the particular research areas and research strengths of the faculty themselves. Some senior faculty have specialties and skills that make undergrad teaching or mentoring a very good fit (David Roediger's US History 101 was a fantastic class and he is a Big Deal, for instance) and some are so specialized that it doesn't make a lot of sense to have them doing anything but maybe some senior undergrad coursework or some undergrad research rotations.

Still, someone who actively scorns teaching undergrads and thinks that this is categorically not the business of a first rate scholar kind of sucks.
posted by Frowner at 6:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Man, this Politico article on Hillary's life made me cry like a baby: What It Took, by Michael Kruse. I can't give an excerpt because it should be read whole.

Ladies...we are SO CLOSE!!!!!!!!

This is a great example of a male journalist writing a dead-on, fully fleshed out article on a woman's breakthrough moment - he tells this story through the voices of women and resists centering his take.
posted by sallybrown at 6:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [69 favorites]

(and can we please rein in the derails and chatfilter and keep this on the topic of the election.)
posted by sallybrown at 6:40 AM on November 4, 2016 [31 favorites]

My fiancé and I live about a block and a half from the Hudson River, and are half planning to grab our video camera for the fireworks on Tuesday night. Just so if we have a daughter one day, she can have the footage that her parents took of it.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

For some good feels this morning, I highly recommend this Facebook post from one of Tim Kaine's grad school roommates and close friend, Charles Hirschhorn, describing Kaine in great detail. He really does sound like a wonderful person.
posted by sallybrown at 6:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

The Eichenwald Newsweek article seems prettyebad to me. Will it have any effect?
posted by medusa at 6:44 AM on November 4, 2016

Had dinner last night with a good friend who is a staunch republican. After a few beers, he asked the question I knew was coming: what do you think is going happen Tuesday? I told him Clinton would win. But what he really meant was what was going to happen after Tues and I told him his party was going to have to shun the "value" voters and conspiracy theorists and move back towards the center. He went on to say he doesn't care about gay marriage, abortion, etc. just small government and entitlement reform. He mentioned something about minorities on welfare and I pointed out how the majority of entitlements go to white folks and how what he should be worried about is the increasing numbers of white males filing disability claims in their late 50's because they can no longer find work or are physically unable to perform manual labor. We talked about how much of the manufacturing work in the US has been lost to automation rather than Mexico or China and I then I made my pitch for a minimum guaranteed income which he of course dismissed.

He's a Reagan republican and I respect his politics even if I disagree with them. Unfortunately, he's the exact kind of republican that should be pushing his party back towards the middle but he feels like he's been set adrift.
posted by photoslob at 6:45 AM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

The Eichenwald Newsweek article seems prettyebad to me. Will it have any effect?

The Trumpabteilung are too deep in to start heeding doubts now, and that segment of society loves Putin for being a Strong Manly Leader Who Puts People In Their Place for some time now.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

this election is so stupid, and yet I've managed to more or less forgotten ISIS and climate change, which is ridiculous

I live in Paris and get frisked four times a day on workdays, we have "unidentified package" scares about once a week, and had still managed to forget ISIS due to this election.

As someone who has and had older friends who lived in Alsace-Lorraine, a grandfather-in-heart who organized and fought in the French Resistance, and other friends along the Alps before and during WWII, y'all who still think Trump wouldn't be so bad are seriously friggin' worrisome. That's exactly what they thought of well-known European fascists before they came to power. It's why I keep harping on "The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui," because Brecht does so well at describing it in terms that make it obvious it could happen anywhere, and that guys like Trump raise danger signals, and yet still fly under the radar precisely because enough people underestimate them due to privileged viewpoints, and think the worst couldn't happen to them/in their country. "Certainly not with this guy, sure he's a jerk but it wouldn't be THAT bad." It's also a refrain we women are profoundly familiar with when it comes to abusers. This is a guy who very likely ordered and abused young girls. Add to that his litany of other abuses of diverse people. What on earth could make anyone think that that extent of blatant, repeated disregard for human life wouldn't be "so bad" on an even larger scale? The systemic devaluation of the same people Trump cannily devalues is so ingrained, part of us still doesn't see these people as the representatives of humanity they are. ("First they came..." points to this as well.) Trump wasn't reined in before, why would he be with an FBI director, Assange, and Putin already helping him? I hope the worry is mostly rhetorical, even so it is entirely worth asking ourselves these questions so that we face our own shadows and recognize that we've put real live people in them (women, girls, minorities) and can do better.

It is really heartening to see that a good amount of people have integrated that the solutions include not being numbed to the underestimation (i.e. GOTV – don't stay at home because you assume Clinton will win) and recognizing that we're all in this together. We can still do better.
posted by fraula at 6:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

The Eichenwald Newsweek article seems prettyebad to me. Will it have any effect?

Short of another "Access Hollywood" type video now, the only thing that's going to matter is getting out the vote.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 6:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

ICYMI ...this Politico article on Hillary's life... linked above is great.
posted by kingless at 6:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

The Dalai Lama and Arthur C. Brooks: Behind Our Anxiety, the Fear of Being Unneeded (NYT):

This helps explain why pain and indignation are sweeping through prosperous countries. The problem is not a lack of material riches. It is the growing number of people who feel they are no longer useful, no longer needed, no longer one with their societies.

In America today, compared with 50 years ago, three times as many working-age men are completely outside the work force. This pattern is occurring throughout the developed world — and the consequences are not merely economic. Feeling superfluous is a blow to the human spirit. It leads to social isolation and emotional pain, and creates the conditions for negative emotions to take root.

What can we do to help? The first answer is not systematic. It is personal. Everyone has something valuable to share. We should start each day by consciously asking ourselves, “What can I do today to appreciate the gifts that others offer me?” We need to make sure that global brotherhood and oneness with others are not just abstract ideas that we profess, but personal commitments that we mindfully put into practice.

Each of us has the responsibility to make this a habit. But those in positions of responsibility have a special opportunity to expand inclusion and build societies that truly need everyone.

Leaders need to recognize that a compassionate society must create a wealth of opportunities for meaningful work, so that everyone who is capable of contributing can do so. A compassionate society must provide children with education and training that enriches their lives, both with greater ethical understanding and with practical skills that can lead to economic security and inner peace. A compassionate society must protect the vulnerable while ensuring that these policies do not trap people in misery and dependence.

posted by sallybrown at 7:00 AM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

So, do polls that ask for likely voters ask only whether someone is a likely voter, or do they give the option that would include likely voters and those who have already voted? Because if it is the former, they would likely skew to Trump as the early voters are dropped from the polls.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:01 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Gothamist: Hear Mel Brooks's Adorable Robocall For Long Island State Senator
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

it looks like SEPTA might go to court today. Apparently we had only 60% turnout in 2012, and people are getting mighty tired, so yeah, whether or not we have SEPTA Tuesday is a big deal. It will impact everybody who lives or works or goes to school or other ties in the city.
posted by angrycat at 7:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Seriously, I'm a huge fan of unions, but SEPTA couldn't pick any other time to go on strike? Do they not realize the stakes here?
posted by peacheater at 7:08 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

Undergraduate Teaching Award was affectionately known as the "kiss of death" for tenure-track professors.

Ah, folklore.
posted by spitbull at 7:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

@ThePlumLineGS
Clinton campaign is telling top donors they think FL, NC, and NV are in the bag, due to Latino voters:
NYT: Clinton Pushes Minority Turnout as Trump Tries to Rally His Base

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there."
posted by chris24 at 7:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

SEPTA is trying to get a response from Democrats as well as Republicans, and this has sure as shit gotten the Democrats attention, so I'm not sure it's a bad move on their part.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 7:10 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, do polls that ask for likely voters ask only whether someone is a likely voter, or do they give the option that would include likely voters and those who have already voted?

I am not a pollster and don't study mass behavior but I am unaware of any pollster at this point who doesn't include people who've already voted as likely voters.

The way it typically works is that they ask you a series of questions and you have to give a set of the "right" answers to be a likely voter. I still don't understand why they haven't switched to just estimating a probability of turnout and weighting by that. I mean, even if some demographic group only has a 20\% chance of turnout, that means you still expect 20 percent of them to turn out, not zero percent.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:11 AM on November 4, 2016

Short of another "Access Hollywood" type video now, the only thing that's going to matter is getting out the vote.

It could matter if the general media picks it up enough to knock off or at least cut down on the BS the FBI is leaking. Media narrative likely won't change many votes at this point but it can suppress people bothering to vote.
posted by Jalliah at 7:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

SEPTA is trying to get a response from Democrats as well as Republicans, and this has sure as shit gotten the Democrats attention, so I'm not sure it's a bad move on their part.

If it results in a Trump Presidency, it is a bad move, because Trump (and Republicans in general) are unlikely to be as amenable to union bargaining as any Democratic President would be. It's short-sighted and cutting off their nose to spite their face.
posted by peacheater at 7:12 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

On the one hand, it's not a transit worker's job to consider the fate of political campaigns. On the other hand, they stand to gain or lose ground significantly depending on the outcome of the races, especially the down-ballot races. I think they were right to strike at the deadline to show they're serious about their position, but it seems like breaking the strike for a day (or however long it takes to get the system to full capacity by Tuesday) would advance their own interests as well as those of the people they're serving.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

Y'all, I just accidentally got on some other post here in the blue somehow, and it took me foreveh to figure it out. "So, THIS is why some people complain about derails!" I thought to myself after the 20th consecutive comment about teaching vs research in colleges. I literally forgot for a moment that Metafilter exists beyond these election threads. God, I'll be glad when this is, at long last, over.
posted by thebrokedown at 7:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

If a deal with SEPTA is not reached in time is there any way for polling hours to be extended on an emergency basis? Who needs to talk to whom for that to happen?
posted by lydhre at 7:15 AM on November 4, 2016

SEPTA is not on strike, the TWU is.
posted by zutalors! at 7:15 AM on November 4, 2016

BTW does this empathy for Trump voters thing extend to if the fuckers win?
posted by Artw at 7:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Yes... when I was in grad school the Undergraduate Teaching Award was affectionately known as the "kiss of death" for tenure-track professors.

My wife got one of those! She's been adjuncting for five years now.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

dances_with_sneetches: already-voteds are given the maximum score in the LV screen and counted in polls.

What doesn't happen (I believe) is that the LV screen itself gets modified to take account of respondents who've already voted. That cake is baked. So if it turns out that more early voters are "unlikely voters" than they'd expected, they're not going to be treated as demographically representative of those "unlikely voters" who haven't voted yet. Which, I think, is a fair position to take.
posted by holgate at 7:17 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

There's nothing new in the Newsweek article, but it does a good job of tying together everything we already know. And it captures just how crazy it is. I like the part about British intelligence being blown away by Trump refusing to acknowledge Russia's role in the hacking and the fact that the American media shrugged it off. I know how they feel!
posted by diogenes at 7:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jezebel has a video of a 1993 commercial the young Melanija Knavs did for a Slovanian brand. In it, Melania plays "the first woman President of the United States" (tho the commenters point out that the US flag is nowhere to be seen, just the European and Slovanian flags). It's worth a moment for the huge shoulder pads, the brown lipstick*, and the Caprice Classic that is her "motorcade."

(*I guess that makes Melania the OG "Girl With The Brown Lipstick.")
posted by octobersurprise at 7:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Here's the quote:

The words that so shocked the British were “our country has no idea,” and “I doubt it.” All of the NATO allies are sure Russia is behind the hacking. All of America’s intelligence agencies are, too. The foreign intelligence services had been sharing what they knew about this with the Americans, and Trump had been told about it. But he blithely dismissed the conclusion of not only the United States but its allies as well, based on absolutely nothing. Trump had no apparent means of developing his own information to contradict the findings of intelligence agencies around the world. And that he would so aggressively fight to clear Putin and cast aspersions on all Western intelligence agencies, left the British officials slack-jawed.
posted by diogenes at 7:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

Well, now I just sound sarcastic, for there are some comments here about teaching and research, a link in which I must have accidentally pressed that got me to a whole new thread about just that. I swear I wasn't making some jerk-ass meta comment about THIS post. I gotta stop waking up in the middle of the night to catch up.
posted by thebrokedown at 7:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

sallybrown, that article you linked regarding the hard personal choices that Clinton has had to make to get to where she is now really is excellent. I recall a comment from an earlier election thread by I-forget-who, where someone said that they wanted to see Hillary change her name back to Hillary Rodham as soon as she gets inaugurated to her second term. I don't expect to see that happen in a million years (nor did the original commenter, to be fair) but I would freaking love it if she did that.

I really want to see what no-fucks-to-give Hillary looks like; she's worked so hard at compromise, moderation, and pragmatism that I really want her to have a chance to be herself. I suspect I would like her a lot more as a politician if she fought harder for her personal values rather than triangulating for the position that is closest to those values and also leaves her with a viable political future. I get that she almost certainly would never have had a hope in hell of becoming president if she'd just said "Fuck it, I'm gonna do me" back in the early 80s, but I want her to have a chance at the end of her career to show us who she really is.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 7:23 AM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Heh. The inadvertent burn is the deepest burn of all, thebrokedown. I will note for the record that folks could probably let that derail drop for good in here now if they haven't already.
posted by cortex at 7:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

The amazing thing about the Newsweek article is that it isn't a bombshell. Think about it. There's an article in Newsweek about the Republican presidential candidate working with the Kremlin, or at the very least furthering Russia's interests for unknown reasons. And it isn't big news because we already knew that!
posted by diogenes at 7:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [42 favorites]

Given the absolute consistency with which Trump has defended Putin during a campaign where barely anything has been consistent -- and where, in basest political terms, there was no domestic benefit for him to do so -- no wonder the spooks think he's compromised. They think that he's indifferent to their work at best, and at worst would abuse it for personal benefit or for the benefit of others.
posted by holgate at 7:32 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

Ladies and Gentlemen, and other sentient, literate MeFites, what we have uncovered here is pure gold. I hereby nominate Qidnunc the Escape Goat as mascot of the MetaFilter sportsball team.

"Maaaaaaaaaaa"
posted by EscapeGoat at 7:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [70 favorites]

Does anyone have any Florida early voting data and analysis today? Nevada is giving me sweet sweet relief, but that's not enough.
posted by lydhre at 7:36 AM on November 4, 2016

(sorry I'm just now catching up to the tail end of yesterday)

Zizek is a pathetic fraud.

That's a great article, mostly because I've never of Zizek before this thread. But in that list of things to deny for entertainment, if you deny knowing about sloths to me, you should be prepared for so many videos. Because SLOTHS! <3
posted by numaner at 7:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Does anyone have any Florida early voting data and analysis today?

This is your guy for Florida info. He's the Ralston Reports of FL.

Steve Schale

Twitter
posted by chris24 at 7:39 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

And a bit from today's post from Steve.

"So with that, here is where we stand:

Yesterday, we blew past the five million mark, pushing over 5.25m votes. I do want to note, especially because as you will see, the margin is razor close, that there are discrepancies between the data the state reported and data you can get off county election’s offices. In some cases, those differences would benefit the D’s, in some the R’s. In other words, these numbers could change a little during the day.

Total Ballots cast: 5,267,750
Total Vote By Mail: 2,370,567 (45%)
Total Early Vote: 2,897.183 (55%)

Republicans: 2,093,586 (39.74%)
Democrats: 2,091,753 (39.71%)
NPA: 769,241 (20.55%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.03%

Dems won VBM and EV today, the first time the former has happened. I wouldn’t be surprised if this continues, largely because of math. There are a lot more Dem ballots out there than GOP ballots, in part because the Dems pushed VBM later in October, and in part because, I have no freaking idea why people haven’t mailed back their ballots.

Right now, I think about 57 percent of the likely electorate has voted. At this pace, if the next few days of early and VBM returns look like the last few days, we will be at 70% of the likely electorate done by E Day. One caveat, given the number of low propensity voters who are showing up, I might revise my turnout estimate upward, in which case, that 70% number will become more like 67-68%, but still, at that rate, we are going to have a pretty good sense where Florida is headed pretty darn early on Tuesday."
posted by chris24 at 7:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

I voted yesterday in totally blue Massachusetts. It was surreal seeing the names on the ballot. I felt damn good filling in that form, I tell you what. And I got a sticker!
posted by Biblio at 7:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

I did a site search and it doesn't look like it's been posted yet...

Really good article from Vox about policy: Hillary Clinton's Quiet Revolution
posted by phunniemee at 7:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

This election has made me realise that there is a large gulf between how I understand the world and how the world actually is. I used to feel sympathy for people who were adrift. Now I join them. I trust the Metafilter consensus that we'll get through this one but the idiot has beaten a path that more clever ones will follow.
posted by night_train at 7:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

What's the matter with the polls?

Campaign professionals say the run-up to the election is exposing key flaws in the public polling conducted by news organizations and academic institutions. The most obvious flaw is that the polls are overstating sudden fluctuations to the American people, say campaign pollsters whose own data is far more stable ...

Nearly all voters are going to support the same party again (again)

Based on [YouGov] polling and analysis, 88% of voters who voted for Obama or Romney in 2012 and who will vote in 2016 are voting for the same party as last time. Romney supporters almost all support Trump; Obama supporters almost all support Clinton. This is not a pattern that has only emerged in the final days of the campaign, the rates of switching were nearly as high in the middle of September, before any of the debates ... However, while these rates of switching are low in absolute terms, they are higher than the corresponding figures were in our polling just before the 2012 election, when compared to 2008. In that election, Obama and Romney both retained over 90% of the 2008 vote for their parties.

posted by kyrademon at 7:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

One imagines Trump calling up Putin after receiving his intelligence briefing.

"Vlad, are these things true?"

"Donald, tell me what those mean men told you and I will tell you the truth."
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:48 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

The thing I find remarkable is that Trump is doing so well with basically everything going against him. The economy is strong. Unemployment is down. There will be probably be a recession soon, because we've never passed ten years between recession. Crime is down. I know some will look at the jump this year, but it is has gone down during the Obama administration.

Imagine how Trump would do if things were actually bad.

The ability to avoid recessions during the last two Democratic presidencies is remarkable. Of the last ten recessions, going back to the beginning of the Eisenhower administration, nine have begun under Republican administrations:

The last ten recessions (for reference, from Wikipedia).

July 1953 – May 1954 Eisenhower president for six months.
Aug 1957 – April 1958 Eisenhower president for 4 years, seven months.
Apr 1960 – Feb 1961 Eisenhower president for 7 years three months.
Dec 1969 – Nov 1970 Nixon president for 11 months.
Nov 1973 – Mar 1975 Nixon president for four and three quarters years.
Jan–July 1980 Carter president for 3 years.
July 1981 – Nov 1982 Reagan president for six months.
July 1990 – Mar 1991 Bush, Sr. president for one and one half years.
March 2001–Nov 2001 Bush, Jr. president for two months.
Dec 2007 – June 2009. Bush, Jr. president for seven years.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

@juliaioffe I spent the day with Trump supporters in Tennessee. They told me the country is on the wrong path, and that the earth is flat. Literally.

All those shots from space of the big blue marble? Fake?

Yeah, but you never see it from the side, do you? #teachthecontroversy
posted by disconnect at 7:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

I really want to see what no-fucks-to-give Hillary looks like

Listen, and understand! Clinton is out there! She can't be bargained with. She can't be reasoned with. She doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And she absolutely will not stop... ever, until you have high-quality affordable health insurance and subsidized child care!
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [57 favorites]

538: Procedural note: our cutoff for including polls in the 538 model is 11:59pm on Monday. Then we'll run our final forecasts at midnight. (twitter)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:52 AM on November 4, 2016

The economy is strong. Unemployment is down. Crime is down.

The thing is, many of his followers don't believe that any of the above are true. Their media tell them that these are all lies, that really actually everything is terrible, and there's no way to prove to them that they're being misled. Any source that reports that crime is down gets labeled "lying liberal media."
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:52 AM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

From the Steve Schale link the always amazing chris24 posted:

Which leads me to my final point. My buddy Peter Hamby, who works at Snapchat and who I think is one of the smarter people around, tweeted something last night which I think is both likely – and reminiscent of 2012: “There's more likelihood polls are overlooking disconnected millennials, African-Americans & Hispanics than "closet Trump supporters" From my observation, particularly with the NPA growth and the number of low propensity voters in Florida, I think this could be happening here, and is one of the reason I am less concerned about the party delta than I was earlier in the week.

That makes me breathe a little easier. Just a smidge, but I will take any smidges at this point.
posted by lydhre at 7:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

The economy is strong. Unemployment is down. There will be probably be a recession soon, because we've never passed ten years between recession. Crime is down. I know some will look at the jump this year, but it is has gone down during the Obama administration.

You would not believe how many people not only don't know this, but also don't want to know this, and desperately want and need for it to be false.
posted by Pope Guilty at 7:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [41 favorites]

The thing I find remarkable is that Trump is doing so well with basically everything going against him.

Yeah, what really, deeply, disturbs me is that if the Republicans had their act together and had nominated someone other than Trump the Hutt they probably could have won, and won handily. I dunno if it's just a combination of misogyny and Clinton Derangement Syndrome, or what.
posted by sotonohito at 7:55 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

> On the FEC website, how can I look up the contributions Bernie Sanders' campaign fund has made since he conceded the nomination?

Go here. Search for Bernard Sanders, or just enter P60007168. That's the ID the Sander's presidential campaign; it'll be faster. To get a detailed break-down, go the "Two-Year Summary" tab, click the disbursement type for details, then click "Payment Date" to sort them chronologically.

It looks he's been making a lot of contributions to State Democratic Parties. (I just looked at most recent stuff.)
posted by nangar at 7:56 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Crime is down.

Actual crime is down, but the thing that I expect lots of anglos use as their personal barometer for crime -- are there angry black people on tv? -- is up.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [47 favorites]

From:

Eichenwald's latest Newsweek article on Trump is up, "Why Vladimir Putin's Russia is Backing Donald Trump".

The Russian penetration in the United States is far more extensive than previously revealed publicly, although most of it has been targeted either at government departments or nongovernment organizations connected to the Democratic Party. Russian hackers penetrated the White House, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the State Department. The State Department cyberattack, which began in 2014 and lasted more than a year, was particularly severe, with Russian hackers gaining entry into its unclassified system, including emails. (Hillary Clinton left the State Department in 2013, which means that if she had used its unclassified email system rather than her private server—a decision that has dogged her throughout the campaign—any of her emails on the government system could have been obtained by Russian hackers.)

Oh the irony...

It's wishful thinking but it would be wonderful if the media would give the Hillary email thing more root cause analysis treatment and not treating it like she was just acting nefariously while the system (and everyone else) was some sort of perfect example of goodness and light. I know there has been some talk about it but the big story, the scandal so to speak is about problems with the system as a whole.
posted by Jalliah at 7:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

Krugman: Who Broke Politics?

In other words, Republican leaders have spent the past couple of decades doing exactly what the likes of Mr. Ryan are doing now: trashing democratic norms in pursuit of economic benefits for their donor class.
posted by DynamiteToast at 7:58 AM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

As for people not wanting to know that crime is down and so forth, I think a lot of what Fred Clark noticed with regards to people desperate to believe that the CEO of P&G is a Satanist applies. They want to feel that they're good, and they've decided to do that by believing they're superior to those Other People, which in turn necessitates that they believe the absolute worst about those Other People that they possibly can.

This requires an elaborate fantasy world to be built up, and a lot of people to share it with so they can pretend it's real, and they hate, hate, hate anything that threatens their fantasy.
posted by sotonohito at 7:59 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

sallybrown, that article you linked regarding the hard personal choices that Clinton has had to make to get to where she is now really is excellent.

Anecdote for those still trying to sway voters: That article really spoke to my over-70 white male Independent father (who voted for Clinton twice, Bush twice, and Obama twice - I guess he likes consistency lol), who reads Drudge Report daily and got thrown off track a bit this election by Clinton Cash. His dearest wish was that Romney or Bloomberg would run as third party.

He said that article was the most convincing argument he has yet seen for why she will make the better President.
posted by sallybrown at 8:01 AM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Here's my take-home quote from the latest Steve Schale Florida report:

[Florida] remains exceptionally close. The race really will go to the side that does the best job over the next 96 hours. I used the term “crazy close” yesterday and I think it still works today.

So, I'm really hoping that the alleged and much-touted ground-game/GOTV advantage this year is a real thing that makes a real difference.
posted by kyrademon at 8:01 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Except that PredictIt takes 10% of profits plus 5% of redemption, so you're really looking at ... 6.5%ish I think? Are you really gonna toss in $100 to make $6.50 thirty days from now?

Um...yes? Where else am I going to get a near-guaranteed 78% APY? Here's what you do with PredictIt--forget about cashing out in a month. Just keep rolling into the next almost-sure thing. You can make $6.50 per $100 in five days. That's huge. Maybe it'll take a little while for the next almost-sure-bet, but there will be one. Split up your new nest egg into several good prospects. Take the profit and invest in something new.

I put $100 up front and then $50 a month into PredictIt starting last October. I did that until I had invested $600 of my own money. Now I have about $850, all riding on Hillary to win, at an average of 62 cents per share. Tuesday will be a nice payday for me. Or Trump will win and being out $600 will be the least of my troubles.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

PredictIt is illegal in the US, isn't it?
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

An acquaintance told me that Hilary is going to take advantage of the end of daylight saving time to mess up Republicans' smartphone clocks so that they miss the election. He's a nice guy so I just told him to make sure his old fashioned alarm clock is wound up. He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.
posted by moonmilk at 8:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [33 favorites]

An acquaintance told me that Hilary is going to take advantage of the end of daylight saving time to mess up Republicans' smartphone clocks so that they miss the election. He's a nice guy so I just told him to make sure his old fashioned alarm clock is wound up. He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

Election 2016: Poe didn't know shit.
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:06 AM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

One of the lesser-reported stories about Florida is the number of Puerto Ricans who've arrived in the state (especially Orlando) since the last presidential election because of the debt-induced economic crisis in PR that the US Congress refuses to address. They're not immigrants; they're citizens who have gained the right to choose the president by relocating. They're not going to show up as likely voters. The Clinton campaign has been on a very focused registration push for them since the summer.
posted by holgate at 8:07 AM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

[Florida] remains exceptionally close. The race really will go to the side that does the best job over the next 96 hours. I used the term “crazy close” yesterday and I think it still works today.
So, I'm really hoping that the alleged and much-touted ground-game/GOTV advantage this year is a real thing that makes a real difference.

The close numbers are purely on party affiliation. If the 28% R-to-D crossover number that popped up the other day is even halfway right, that's great for us.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 8:07 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

He's a nice guy. . . . He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

Yes, he certainly sounds like a pleasant fellow.
posted by a fiendish thingy at 8:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Umm... I'm as sure as anyone here that Clinton's gonna win on Tuesday, but this talk of "surefire investment strategies" is making me a little nervous. Let's nip this conversational thread in the bud?
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:12 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm all ears if anyone has been looking at any work in the realm of the psychology of this situation. Not the well known stuff like "people double-down when their beliefs are challenged with facts" but the more nebulous origin of why people form these beliefs in the first place. Once a belief is formed, it's hard to change, yes, but we're not born with a set of beliefs, we learn them. Where and how do people learn them and why are a certain set of non-factual beliefs so incredibly attractive to so many people even as they are demonstrably false? What is the dopamine hit that these beliefs give the believers? Where does it come from and why?

Oh gosh. There's so much to look at because of the multitude of factors at play, not just belief formation in general but how that interacts with more meta belief systems. If you're looking specifically at the 'The Right' I would start sifting through research and data about authoritarianism, personality and response to authoritarian personalities which falls under a characteristic call authoritarian submission. This is a case where the wiki entry of Right Wing Authoritarianism is a good jumping off point as it gives some basics and oodles of links.

*warning* It is a rabbit hole.
posted by Jalliah at 8:12 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Does anyone have a good Ralston-like person to follow on Twitter for Georgia voting/turnout stats and reporting?
posted by sallybrown at 8:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

An acquaintance told me that Hilary is going to take advantage of the end of daylight saving time to mess up Republicans' smartphone clocks so that they miss the election. He's a nice guy so I just told him to make sure his old fashioned alarm clock is wound up. He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

What? I know ridiculous but now I'm curious. Did they give any explanation on how she was going to do this? How does this mind work....
posted by Jalliah at 8:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

That is satire? Please?
posted by Slothrup at 8:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Where does it come from and why?

I started to type out a long description of how my dad thinks, but I think this article probably does a better job of illustrating it.
posted by Fleebnork at 8:17 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Matt Yglesias has an article on Vox regarding Hillary's email. It's a nice summary if you need a handy thing to point for someone who would benefit from a simple Clinton email explainer.

That Yglesias article is a humdinger, and hits the proper notes that not only in the so-called "Clinton email scandal" nothing of the kind, but also that its prominence is a serious instance of journalistic malpractice on the part of nearly all the media.

I've noted before that I'd like to be able to challenge any journalist or pundit to explain the so-called "Clinton email scandal" in 25 words or less, and they don't get to use the words "raises questions."

Then I'd like to hand them Yglesias' article. Then fire them.
posted by Gelatin at 8:18 AM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

I hope she has a plan to get rid of the sun, because those damned analog sundials are a real threat to the vast liberal conspiracy.
posted by Existential Dread at 8:18 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you want to know what Wikileaks/Drudge are pushing on this Friday morning, it's that Podesta is a Wiccan who eats blood and the FBI saw the antichrist.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:18 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Does anyone have a good Ralston-like person to follow on Twitter for Georgia voting/turnout stats and reporting?

I don't know of a Ralston-like person in Georgia. This CNN Report is from a few days ago and shows early voting 37% up. One thing about Georgia is you don't register with a party there so there's no way to breakout how the vote has gone by party thus far.
posted by chris24 at 8:19 AM on November 4, 2016

> He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

Damnit, who let that slip? The instructions were clear - the first rule of clock confiscation club is that no one talks about clock confiscation club.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Looks like the verdict in the BridgeGate case is coming out any minute now.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

If you want to know what Wikileaks/Drudge are pushing on this Friday morning, it's that Podesta is a Wiccan who eats blood and the FBI saw the antichrist.

Desperately needs a [real] or [fake] tag. And I mean desperately.
posted by lydhre at 8:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

I don't know of a Ralston-like person in Georgia. This CNN Report is from a few days ago and shows early voting 37% up. One thing about Georgia is you don't register with a party there so there's no way to breakout how the vote has gone by party thus far.

All my #ATLiens are swearing up and down it's going to flip but I know that's all anecdata from a Blue part of the state. I guess it will be a peach of a surprise if so!
posted by sallybrown at 8:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

> "If the 28% R-to-D crossover number that popped up the other day is even halfway right, that's great for us."

I'm personally very dubious about that number. We'll see, I guess.
posted by kyrademon at 8:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

If you want to know what Wikileaks/Drudge are pushing on this Friday morning, it's that Podesta is a Wiccan who eats blood and the FBI saw the antichrist.

Holy not satire batman. I thought you must have missed the [fake] tag. I looked. It's true....
posted by Jalliah at 8:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Anyone else here going to the canvassing rally in Nashua, NH at 10 am tomorrow?
posted by Coventry at 8:22 AM on November 4, 2016

Looks like the verdict in the BridgeGate case is coming out any minute now.

Time to cause some traffic problems in Fort Christie
posted by Existential Dread at 8:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

All my #ATLiens are swearing up and down it's going to flip but I know that's all anecdata from a Blue part of the state. I guess it will be a peach of a surprise if so!

I voted on Monday, so add me to the list, too.
posted by Fleebnork at 8:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

You realize, of course, that Daylight Savings is stealing hours from us allowing Obama and Hillary to make Time Bombs.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:26 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you want to know what Wikileaks/Drudge are pushing on this Friday morning, it's that Podesta is a Wiccan who eats blood and the FBI saw the antichrist.

Desperately needs a [real] or [fake] tag. And I mean desperately.

[real]
Here it is:

WIKI WICCAN: PODESTA PRACTICES OCCULT MAGIC
FBI AGENTS SEE 'ANTICHRIST'
ASSANGE: CLINTON, ISIS FUNDED BY SAME MONEY
TERROR THREAT WARNING MONDAY
94,609,000 NOT IN LABOR FORCE
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:28 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

He warns us that Hilary will probably confiscate analog clocks next year.

WE HAVE CLOCKS.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 8:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

All my #ATLiens are swearing up and down it's going to flip but I know that's all anecdata from a Blue part of the state. I guess it will be a peach of a surprise if so!

Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a complete blow out, with women across the country quietly voting Hillary while smiling and politely ignoring their Trump spouting husbands?
posted by leotrotsky at 8:30 AM on November 4, 2016 [38 favorites]

Re: "escape goat" -- I should point out that this is actually etymologically appropriate; the English word "scapegoat" finds its origin in the Book of Leviticus, chapter 16, which details the prescribed rituals for the Day of Atonement. After the priest sacrifices a bull (for his own sins) and a goat (for the sins of the nation), he is to confess the sins of the nation over a second goat which is then taken out ("escaped") into the wilderness, symbolically carrying the sins of the nation out with it:

When [Aaron (the priest)] has finished atoning for the holy place and the tent of meeting and the altar, he shall present the live goat. Then Aaron shall lay both his hands on the head of the live goat, and confess over it all the iniquities of the people of Israel, and all their transgressions, all their sins, putting them on the head of the goat, and sending it away into the wilderness by means of someone designated for the task. The goat shall bear on itself all their iniquities to a barren region; and the goat shall be set free in the wilderness.

So a "scapegoat" is one who takes on the guilt of the whole, whether fairly or no; and is then driven out (othered, we might say) in order to atone for the sins of the nation.

How scapegoating functions in America, 2016 is left as an exercise to the reader.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:31 AM on November 4, 2016 [40 favorites]

If you want to know what Wikileaks/Drudge are pushing on this Friday morning, it's that Podesta is a Wiccan who eats blood and the FBI saw the antichrist.

Okay for those that don't want to go there.

There is a Podesta email where he was invited to some weird occult like event. As far as I can tell there is no indication that he went or was interested in going. Just that this lady invited him. But since he got the email (an no one will ever send you an email that you have no interest in of course) that means he wanted to get it because he is a wiccan and blah blah.

The FBI antichrist thing is literally a link to the Guardian article on the FBI being Trumpland I'm still pondering what it has to do with the antichrist.
posted by Jalliah at 8:31 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Today is a feast of great political writing thus far. I present to you, by Jim Yardley for the NYT:

An American in a Strange Land
After more than a decade away, a foreign correspondent comes back to take stock of his divided homeland.

This summer, I decided I wanted to explore this place that had become a foreign country to me. I didn’t understand what had happened since I left, why so many people seemed so disillusioned and angry. I planned a zigzag route, revisiting places where I once lived or worked, a 29-day sprint through 11 states (and four time zones). I knew I would be moving too fast to make any sweeping declaration about the state of America, and I wouldn’t ask people which presidential candidate they were voting for. I was more interested in why they were so anxious about the present and the future. I wanted to find out why the country was fragmenting rather than binding together. Most of all I wanted to see with my own eyes what had changed — and so much had changed.

posted by sallybrown at 8:32 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

@BraddJaffy: Bridgegate: Jury finds ex-Chris Christie allies Bridget Kelly and Bill Baroni guilty on all counts
posted by zombieflanders at 8:33 AM on November 4, 2016 [58 favorites]

When I was a kid I was very impressed with the Religious Right's witchcraft and Antichrist rhetoric around the '96 election. Hillary Clinton was a witch?! Bill Clinton was the Antichrist?! I didn't buy it, but it seemed amazing that these people would see such signs!

Then in 2000 suddenly Al Gore was the Antichrist, and I went "Ohhhhh, that's how this works."
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:33 AM on November 4, 2016 [36 favorites]

What? I know ridiculous but now I'm curious. Did they give any explanation on how she was going to [confiscate analog clocks]?

Just round them up at the same time you confiscate guns, I suppose.
posted by thelonius at 8:34 AM on November 4, 2016

WIKI WICCAN: PODESTA PRACTICES OCCULT MAGIC
FBI AGENTS SEE 'ANTICHRIST'
ASSANGE: CLINTON, ISIS FUNDED BY SAME MONEY
TERROR THREAT WARNING MONDAY
94,609,000 NOT IN LABOR FORCE

Holy shit. No joke. And this is a site people get "information" from.

Wow.
posted by photoslob at 8:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

I finally got added to one of the secret Hillary groups on Facebook this morning and omfg, you guys. It's a huge group growing by leaps and bounds, and people feel safe enough to share their personal stories of why they're voting for her and why they don't feel safe talking about it outside of protected areas, the work they're doing to help get out the vote, ways others can help... it's really uplifting. There are so many people out there who are incredibly eager to vote for Hillary and who don't get captured by polls, don't show up to rallies or speak publicly about their political opinions. Please remember that when you get scared in the next few days.
posted by palomar at 8:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [33 favorites]

PredictIt is illegal in the US, isn't it?

Nope. It exists for academic purposes and there's an $850 limit on each market, so they are allowed to operate.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Sweet satisfaction on Bridgegate verdicts for this New Yorker. Now Christie can go away for good. Hopefully Kelly rolls hard on his bully ass for a sentencing consideration.
posted by spitbull at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

That would explain the tactical alarm clock attachment for the AR-15.
posted by peeedro at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

@mattmfm:

New @ppppolls dump of battleground state polling:
NH: Clinton 48-43
NV: Clinton 48-45
WI: Clinton 48-41
PA: Clinton 48-44
NC: Clinton 49-47

posted by zombieflanders at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [29 favorites]

Just that this lady invited him

"this lady", of course, is Marina freaking Abramović.
posted by acidic at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Yeah, what really, deeply, disturbs me is that if the Republicans had their act together and had nominated someone other than Trump the Hutt they probably could have won, and won handily.

I love counterfactuals as much as the next person, but I can't give credence to this one. It would have been an entirely different campaign, and I believe Clinton's team would have just as deftly found ways to dispatch Cruz, Rubio, or Kasich—All three of whom apparently didn't even consider digging up the plentiful oppo on Trump that was just lying around. And all three would be trying to fight Clinton on her own turf (i.e. a semblance of reality).
posted by ejs at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Next stop: jail for Christie.
posted by Dashy at 8:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Seriously, how are you guys getting invited to these secret groups? I'm only on Facebook, like, twice a month, but you all are making me jealous!
posted by amarynth at 8:37 AM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

All my #ATLiens are swearing up and down it's going to flip but I know that's all anecdata from a Blue part of the state. I guess it will be a peach of a surprise if so!

Erick Erickson was hinting that Dems (though not Team HRC) had internal polls saying "tie". He personally thinks Trump will eke out a narrow win, and I think he's about right there. GA is the next in line (in presidential years) after NC: not now, but soon.

If the Dems' political centre of gravity is moving southwards, then it poses some long-term questions about how to address things like wages and job security in states that have always been culturally anti-union, and have that baked into their laws. But that's for another day.
posted by holgate at 8:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

PPP released their numbers:

—NH: Clinton 48-43
—NV: Clinton 48-45
—WI: Clinton 48-41
—PA: Clinton 48-44
—NC: Clinton 49-47

Of course this was followed by (in particular reference to those PA numbers):

@suffolk89:
@ppppolls Wrong I talk with real people. 4 different Mcdonald's 20 people each. Gop won in every place.

Reply from @ppppolls to @suffolk89:
well you told us
posted by garius at 8:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [68 favorites]

I have so much FOMO on the secret groups that I'm just pretending they don't exist. Or they are full of jerks.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Who's in the mood for some more good news from PPP?

New Public Policy Polling surveys in 6 key Senate battleground states find strong support for common sense gun legislation from voters across the aisle, and that candidates who endorse these policies are set to perform well in next week’s election. There is overwhelming support in Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for:

-Expanding background checks on gun purchases
-Barring those convicted of a hate crime from buying a gun
-Prohibiting those convicted of stalking or domestic abuse from buying guns

Check out the numbers here (PDF).

Kick the bums out!
posted by sallybrown at 8:39 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

There is a Podesta email where he was invited to some weird occult like event. As far as I can tell there is no indication that he went or was interested in going. Just that this lady invited him. But since he got the email (an no one will ever send you an email that you have no interest in of course) that means he wanted to get it because he is a wiccan and blah blah.

Honestly, the Wikileaks business over this is one of the more viscerally scary things I've seen this election. That's actually, really old-school fascist - it chimes with the "blood libel" and it suggests that Wikileaks is calling into being* an electorate which really believes that all this pagan blood/soil stuff works, and therefore we must stop our enemies from doing witchcraft. It's not that our other choice is light-filled rationalism where everything always adds up, because that would be miserable in its own way, but racing to build a climate of superstitious hostile irrationalism to mobilize your political faction is...it just really, really ought to be out of the question even in a terrible election.

*When they say "people who hate Clinton, you should hate Clinton because of [witchcraft], they are pushing people to hate witchcraft because they hate Clinton. It's weaponized my-enemy-is-eating-crackers, where all of the sudden you decide you hate crackers. (The tasty snack kind, not the racist white people kind.)
posted by Frowner at 8:39 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm personally very dubious about that number. We'll see, I guess.

I'm dubious about it too. I think it's too high. I do think that it could be an indication that there is a statistically significant amount doing it though. So say it's somewhere between 5-10% which on the low end I don't think that number is unreasonable considering a lot of other info that's been floating around. With the early votes are showing a roughly equal amount Rep and Dem votes returned even 5% of those GOP votes are crossover votes that's good.

We know there are numbers of Republican who either only voting down ticket or voting Clinton. The question is just how many at this point.
posted by Jalliah at 8:40 AM on November 4, 2016

Christie is the head of the Trump transition team.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:41 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Nope. It exists for academic purposes and there's an $850 limit on each market, so they are allowed to operate.

Welp, guess when I get home it's time to scour the site for easy pickings.
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:41 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Honestly, my secret Hillary group is so uplifting and wonderful that those of you who want in should just flagrantly post something on your page asking to be added...the one I am in is now over 500K people, you must know SOMEONE in there! But I've been hesitant to add people in my life unless I know for sure they will enjoy the firehose of posts (it's taken over my entire feed but I love it).

I like to keep it double super secret on Metafilter or else I would just friend all of you myself and add you.
posted by sallybrown at 8:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

I have so much FOMO on the secret groups that I'm just pretending they don't exist. Or they are full of jerks.

No they are wonderful and perfect. You'll get your nod I'm sure, I think the weird thing is that you can just add people, not send an invite, so I think some people might be worried it would piss people off to suddenly get notifications from a group they might not have wanted to join popping up in their feed.
posted by zutalors! at 8:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Seriously, how are you guys getting invited to these secret groups? I'm only on Facebook, like, twice a month, but you all are making me jealous!

Don't feel bad, I am on Facebook all the damn time and I just got an invite today -- I think I saw something about membership in groups being throttled until recently, or something along those lines. MeMail me and I'll add you if you want.
posted by palomar at 8:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

my secret Hillary group is so uplifting and wonderful that those of you who want in should just flagrantly post something on your page asking to be added

yea, I second this.
posted by zutalors! at 8:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that jail for Christie is a slam-dunk; he is facing a criminal summons for misconduct in the case, but that's not yet an indictment. On the plus side, for all intents and purposes his political career appears to be over, and we'll always have the gifs of his humiliation at the hands of Cheeto Benito.
posted by Existential Dread at 8:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

The Marina Abramovic smear shows how dangerous ubiquitous surveillance is because it's so easy to take things out of context. It's true that she was inviting Podesta to a Satanic ritual, but it's obviously a work of performance art, not an actual attempt to commune with Satan.
posted by Coventry at 8:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

I got added to a secret Hillary group yesterday, and the thing I find the most uplifting about it is how many stories there are of Republicans and Independents who started out not loving Clinton, but looked into all the garbage behind Clinton Derangement Syndrome, and are now enthusiastic, but private supporters, because their families/neighbors might explode if they knew.

(I don't find it encouraging that people are frightened to be honest because they are worried about retribution. But it comforts me to know that Clinton has so much enthusiastic support against people the pollsters probably think will vote for Trump.)
posted by a fiendish thingy at 8:47 AM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

And the thing with Wikileaks - until very, very recently they were a left organization. Even in the early stages of this election I would have described them as a left organization, albeit a vexed one with a bad analysis. It is really scary to see them slide so fast from plausible criticism of Clinton (I mean, one could disagree about how important their criticism was but they were criticizing actual things that happened) into where they've been for the past couple of months.

I'm not entirely opposed to knee-jerk antiliberalism from the left but the number of people prone to such during the 2016 election who seem to either find fascism preferable to liberalism or be unconcerned about it is shocking and something I couldn't have predicted.
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:48 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Erick Erickson was hinting that Dems (though not Team HRC) had internal polls saying "tie". He personally thinks Trump will eke out a narrow win, and I think he's about right there.

My Clinton-supporting aunts in GA would be delighted and I would be, too, but I'm not holding my breath. My feeling—nothing more than that—is that too much of south and north GA is still dominated by the Fox News demographic.
posted by octobersurprise at 8:48 AM on November 4, 2016

doesn't appear that jail for Christie is a slam-dunk

I don't know, facing federal sentencing for a crime you were ordered by your boss to commit tends to have miraculous effects on an enforcer's memory.
posted by spitbull at 8:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

MetaFilter: my secret Hillary group.
posted by dis_integration at 8:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [60 favorites]

Texas among 3 states FBI fears are in al-Qaeda's sights ahead of election

How crazy is it that my first reaction to this now is "Well the FBI would say that, they want Trump to win..."
posted by DynamiteToast at 8:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

"this lady", of course, is Marina freaking Abramović.

I had no idea who she is which is why it was just 'this lady'. I see now that she is a well known artist. Now I understand why he would get an email. Doubtful it will make any difference to the spinners. There are pictures of her with blood and satan like things!
posted by Jalliah at 8:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Apparently the EV returns in Georgia are much closer than expected, and there's a big gender gap with more women voting than men (also the case in NC). I'm not confident in a Georgia flip but it wouldn't totally shock me either.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

I have like $3 on PredictIt for a Georgia flip so come on big money! (Also: Texas flip.)
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Remember Bush and the tactical use of color coded "terror alert levels" during the 2004 election?

Yeah, color me more convinced the FBI is criminally engaged in raw partisanship.
posted by spitbull at 8:52 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Nope. It exists for academic purposes and there's an $850 limit on each market, so they are allowed to operate.

Welp, guess when I get home it's time to scour the site for easy pickings.

Just never forget the old chestnut "when you look around the poker table, if you can't spot the sucker - it's you." The reason there's 'easy pickings' in those sorts of places is that there's doofuses chasing the payout or too hung up on their own ideology to bet purely based on the winner. We all think we're more rational than that but everyone is susceptible sometimes.
posted by phearlez at 8:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

There are pictures of her with blood and satan like things!

Yeah, but we also have pictures of Trump with people like Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, Kellyanne Conway, and Corey Lewandowski, and unlike Satan, we know those people exist.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

N-thing others: How do we get access to these secret Hillary groups? The rabid anti-Clinton coworkers near me are really getting me down.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 8:54 AM on November 4, 2016

Thanks to ChurchHatesTucker in the previous thread, I will now always think of Chris Christie as Reek.

And I have not been invited to any sooper sekrit Hillary groups. I can understand why they need to be sooper sekrit, but it's bringing up middle-school trauma to read about "I'm in a KEWL exclusive group that's SOOPER SEKRIT and SO MUCH FUN!"
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:55 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Just never forget the old chestnut "when you look around the poker table, if you can't spot the sucker - it's you." The reason there's 'easy pickings' in those sorts of places is that there's doofuses chasing the payout or too hung up on their own ideology to bet purely based on the winner.

Fortunately in this case the doofuses are Trump partisans
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:56 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

MeMail me if you want to canvas for Democrats tomorrow in Nashua, NH and need a ride from Boston. I will be departing from Central Square at 8:30 am.

https://www.facebook.com/events/213801412386080/
posted by Coventry at 8:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

That's the problem with the culture of "secret" Facebook groups. They reward keeping secrets more than the *real* work of publicizing them to the world of online bullies that made people want to join them in the first place. I knew someone who kept their secret group so secret they won an award for secret-keeping and now no other secret groups will let her join. Secret groups, why can't they be more like open, public groups. What a scam!
posted by spitbull at 8:58 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

>> Welp, guess when I get home it's time to scour the site for easy pickings.

> Just never forget the old chestnut "when you look around the poker table, if you can't spot the sucker - it's you.

Well, right now you can get Kaine VP contracts for 5c cheaper than Clinton Presidency contracts, and there's almost enough spread to have a fully hedged Pence VP + Clinton President pair of bets that always pays out. Either those markets are very thin, or the prices are changing very fast and the web display isn't keeping up.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:59 AM on November 4, 2016

Regarding FL and how tight the EV is between parties, one possible bright spot is Cuban-Americans are usually registered and vote Republican. And per this recent poll data out yesterday, Cubans are only supporting Trump 49-42.

Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide
posted by chris24 at 9:00 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

"I'm in a KEWL exclusive group that's SOOPER SEKRIT and SO MUCH FUN!"

It's not like that. A lot of the people in those threads are women in deep red states who are having HRC signs and property defaced. A lot of them are sharing experiences of deep trauma. A lot of them are talking about how terrified their children are. Or how awesome their children are and how much they want to protect them from Trump.

It's not about being cool, and it's nothing like middle school.
posted by zutalors! at 9:01 AM on November 4, 2016 [50 favorites]

The reason there's 'easy pickings' in those sorts of places is that there's doofuses chasing the payout or too hung up on their own ideology to bet purely based on the winner.

Exactly who I mean to try and find! :D
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:01 AM on November 4, 2016

It's 2 days after the Cubs won the World Series.
The Cubs are parading past Wrigley Field literally right now in front of untold numbers of people.
And I'm here thinking - next Tuesday is going to be the craziest day.
Be safe everybody.
posted by cashman at 9:03 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

...they're secret because women got harassed for supporting Hillary during the primaries. And now there are still plenty of women who don't feel totally safe.

Less Mean Girls and more La Resistance.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:03 AM on November 4, 2016 [46 favorites]

Regarding FL and how tight the EV is between parties, one possible bright spot is Cuban-Americans are usually registered and vote Republican. And per this recent poll data out yesterday, Cubans are only supporting Trump 49-42.

Plus unaffiliated voting is up more than 200% in FL and a large share of those voters are Hispanic (and/or young). Florida is looking better and better.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:03 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Or how awesome their children are and how much they want to protect them from Trump.

One of the things I'm grateful for is my son being just a bit too young to know Trump exists. We don't watch TV news, and he's in pre-k, so they don't talk about the election at school.

He's going to grow up thinking a woman being President is a perfectly normal thing. It's pretty cool.
posted by Fleebnork at 9:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

The reason there's 'easy pickings' in those sorts of places is that there's doofuses chasing the payout or too hung up on their own ideology to bet purely based on the winner.

Exactly who I mean to try and find! :D

Me too, but when it's something I feel as strongly about as many of these political decisions I run the risk of finding that doofus a lot physically closer than I want to admit :)
posted by phearlez at 9:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

too hung up on their own ideology to bet purely based on the winner.

My 10 shares of Hillary wins Texas are giving you the finger.
posted by cmfletcher at 9:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

zutalors: I noted that I can understand the need for secrecy. I live in a blue state where I could be in a wide-open Hillary group, and put Hillary signs in my yard, and have Hillary bumper stickers, and nothing would happen. I know that women are in danger in deep red states. So secrecy is very understandable. It's the talking about it in front of others who are not invited that's, not rude per se, but a little middle-schoolish, like talking about a party in front of people who are not invited. That's all.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 9:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Also with the Wikileaks - just as it's weird to see the right stanning for Russia now, it's equally weird to see the nominally-left using proximity to transgressive art to smear their political enemies. It's like we're in bizarro-world eighties right now.
posted by Frowner at 9:06 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Daveed Diggs (Hamilton's Jefferson) has made a video explaining all the reasons millennials should vote for Clinton over Trump.
posted by chris24 at 9:08 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

Anyone know where to advertise canvassing ride shares for Boston? I put it on r/boston, but I'm flailing a little.
posted by Coventry at 9:08 AM on November 4, 2016

Evan Bayh is now down. A Democratic Senate is looking increasingly unlikely.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:08 AM on November 4, 2016

And re: followup that it is middle-schoolish to talk about it w/people who aren't in it-- memail me, and I'll send you the link so you can request membership.
posted by a fiendish thingy at 9:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

FWIW, one of the reasons I have talked about my Hillary group on MeFi before is to flush out people who might want in on such a space. MeMail me if you do.
posted by Stacey at 9:10 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around why someone thinks being in a secret facebook group is somehow safe in regards to anonymity. Are they using sockpuppet accounts? Serious question.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I live in a blue state where I could be in a wide-open Hillary group, and put Hillary signs in my yard, and have Hillary bumper stickers, and nothing would happen.

You know, I would have told you that I lived in a blue area and nothing would happen, and then someone I know woke up one morning to find a white supremacist flier taped to her Hillary yard sign. Someone has been putting the up around town and on campus.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:12 AM on November 4, 2016

Evan Bayh is now down. A Democratic Senate is looking increasingly unlikely.

He deserves to lose and lose big. The sad part is the rest of us deserve a functioning Senate, and we might not get one.
posted by sallybrown at 9:15 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I can't speak to that for the Hillary group, but I am a member of another secret FB group on a sensitivr topic, and yes, many members have sockpuppet accounts just for that group.
posted by Stacey at 9:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Anyone know where to advertise canvassing ride shares for Boston?

Local campaign office?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:19 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Without Bayh, the best case scenario for a Democratic Senate is Mastro defeating Heck in NV on the strength of Latino early voting, which does seem plausible reading Ralston. McGinty is narrowly leading Toomey. Then we need one more of New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Missouri. All currently with the Republican leading in the polling average. Or an upset of Rubio.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:19 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around why someone thinks being in a secret facebook group is somehow safe in regards to anonymity.

They feel a group full of like-minded strangers (which operates on the honor system, essentially, asking us please only add those who will be supportive and follow the rules of the group) is a safer place to express their feelings and experience than their Facebook page full of the people they know. Which says a lot of sad things about the way family, friends, and neighbors treat each other and disregard or dismiss women's experiences. I understand why people would think this choice is a naive one but it isn't necessarily...sometimes it's an optimistic one, made even while taking account of the risks.
posted by sallybrown at 9:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Evan Bayh is now down. A Democratic Senate is looking increasingly unlikely.

My prediction is Dems hit 50/50 by winning 2 of 3 in NV, NH, and NC, but lose IN, MO, and FL. Senate majority is going to be super close, and so much hangs in the balance with that.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around why someone thinks being in a secret facebook group is somehow safe in regards to anonymity.

It is anonymity from Republican relatives who barely know how email works. Secret FB group is more than enough to shield most people from that audience.
posted by a fiendish thingy at 9:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

I wonder if Sean Hannity will show footage of the gigantic Trump rally that will be held in Chicago this afternoon.

(Of course, the liberal media wants you to believe it's a rally for the Cubs. ; ) )
posted by SisterHavana at 9:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

bngbng: Wash away that election stress with these relaxing gifs
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:23 AM on November 4, 2016

> "My prediction is Dems hit 50/50 by winning 2 of 3 in NV, NH, and NC ..."

They would need to win all three, I believe.
posted by kyrademon at 9:23 AM on November 4, 2016

a little middle-schoolish

I think it's important that people know there is enthusiasm for Clinton out there, after a year of hearing how everyone is holding their nose and really hates her. Unfortunately a lot of people are scared to be open with their enthusiasm. Calling it "middle school" to acknowledge that an enthusiasm exists but people aren't comfortable widely sharing the details of it is dismissive.
posted by zutalors! at 9:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

> "My prediction is Dems hit 50/50 by winning 2 of 3 in NV, NH, and NC ..."

They would need to win all three, I believe.

Bah, you're right. Well sheee-it.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:26 AM on November 4, 2016

Then we need one more of New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Missouri. All currently with the Republican leading in the polling average.

Polling average where? HuffPo has ties + /- 1 in three of those races, 538 has them up in 2/3, and PEC predicts at least 50. And if we're going to go by latest polls, PPP is showing the Dem candidates ahead in NV, NH, PA, and WI, which gives us 50. Add Duckworth in IL to that and we have a majority.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:27 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

McGinty is narrowly leading Toomey.

I'm one guy tilting at windmills (polls) here but I have a very strong feeling that McGinty is going to win by the skin of her teeth, if at all. A lot of folks are just going to check her name off after Hillary, but there isn't this groundswell of support. And as Octothorpe dutifully pointed out before, the P-G ('Liberal Rag') just endorsed Toomey. This race is far from in the bag for blue.
posted by splen at 9:28 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Then we need one more of New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Missouri. All currently with the Republican leading in the polling average. Or an upset of Rubio.

By the PEC/Sam Wang New Hampshire and North Carolina are tied - and Missouri is within half a point. And I think that the NC early voting is optimistic for North Carolina as is Clinton's ground game advantage. And PEC is saying Dem +0.7

If there is a Democratic Senate majority the one I'll be least upset to lose is Bayh.

Larry Sabato's saying 2 out of the 5 tossups are needed for 50-50 with the Senate breaking ties. - with three gains in PA, WI, and IL.
posted by Francis at 9:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

> "My prediction is Dems hit 50/50 by winning 2 of 3 in NV, NH, and NC ..."
>>They would need to win all three, I believe.
>>>Bah, you're right. Well sheee-it.

Re: Senate, according to that NYT poll aggregator aggregator, there are 8 competitive seats and the Democrats need at least 4 of them:

Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Indiana
New Hampshire
Missouri
North Carolina
Florida

And of those, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look pretty good for the Dems, while Florida looks pretty bad (and now Indiana, now that Bayh is apparently cratering). The rest are tossups. So that means the Dems need two of:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Missouri
North Carolina
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

And the thing with Wikileaks ... Even in the early stages of this election I would have described them as a left organization, albeit a vexed one with a bad analysis. It is really scary to see them slide so fast from plausible ... into where they've been for the past couple of months.

I don't think the two facts: bad analytically combined with a slide into becoming a tool of the alt-right are unrelated at all. I also think that one of the take-aways for other sovereign actor intelligence services, Russia proximately, but China and possibly Saudi Arabia too, is how easy it is to fuck with US news media to drive election messaging the way they want it.

Wikileaks is in the position of both having a level of some credibility that they more or less lucked into (Poor Chelsea Manning, then the more canny Snowden). They also are incredibly constrained now in terms of resources. So they're a prime candidate for being "useful idiots". And sure enough, Assange, desperate as he is to stay relevant has bitten hard at whatever he's been offered, without looking hard at who is feeding him.

Note that these "leaks" aren't coming from more credible or critical sources: Glen Greenwald, for example, or major news outlets, US domestic or Foreign (as the Panama paper leak did).

So yeah, the lesson for foreign interests are that weak structures like Wikileaks are vulnerable entry points in the US political and media landscapes, which can be used to stir the pot, steer the news cycles and lay out bait for their preferred outcomes.
posted by bonehead at 9:31 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

the P-G ('Liberal Rag') just endorsed Toomey.

OMFG DID THEY????

Wow man, fuck them. So much.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:31 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

They would need to win all three, I believe.

They need 3/4 of PA, NH, NC, NV; assuming they lose IN, FL and MO. There 7 pickup opportunities left. All they needed was 3, and it's not looking likely to happen, becuase Chuck Schumer's candidates are universally terrible and trailing Clinton badly across the board.

But hey, Schumer will get everything he's ever wanted as King Shit of Shitty Senate Minority Mountain, so he's happy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:32 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Local campaign office?

Maybe... I'm a Berner, so I'm not used to top-down organization for this kind of work.

But while I was looking for their contact info, I found the Hillary events page and made an event. Should be good enough. Thanks.
posted by Coventry at 9:34 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

The strange thing as an outsider to PA is I haven't heard any negativity about McGinty, unlike Bayh (IN) or Murphy (FL). And PA is not like NH where a lot of voters seem to genuinely like the Republican candidate - seems like much of PA would be happy to get rid of Toomey. It just seems like a lack of penetration about who McGinty is and what she stands for, or a lack of "charisma" (which is gendered, as we've talked a lot about this political season). A "Who? Her?" situation.
posted by sallybrown at 9:35 AM on November 4, 2016

> "There are 8 competitive seats and the Democrats need at least 4 of them ..."

Five. Nevada is currently a Democratic seat, the rest are Republican seats. They are down by four in the Senate. So they need to either hold Nevada and flip four, or lose Nevada but flip five.
posted by kyrademon at 9:36 AM on November 4, 2016

First post in an election thread, but you all convinced me to go up to PA this weekend for GOTV and then I convinced my brother to go with me and then we convinced my parents to volunteer in NH. I don't think my parents have done any political action since the 60s.

So +4 for Metafilter!
posted by oryelle at 9:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [54 favorites]

I don't think we can or should assume the Dems will lose the Senate races in IN, FL, *and* MO (especially MO).
posted by sallybrown at 9:36 AM on November 4, 2016

I'm one guy tilting at windmills (polls) here but I have a very strong feeling that McGinty is going to win by the skin of her teeth, if at all. A lot of folks are just going to check her name off after Hillary, but there isn't this groundswell of support. And as Octothorpe dutifully pointed out before, the P-G ('Liberal Rag') just endorsed Toomey. This race is far from in the bag for blue.

I'm not local but it looks like the she's led in all 9 polls conducted in the past 2 weeks. Granted her margins aren't as good as Clinton's, but can I ask locals, why this level of doubt?
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:37 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Mass poll closures in battleground states create potential for Election Day chaos: It’s the first presidential election in 50 years without the full protection of the Voting Rights Act.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

OMFG DID THEY????
Wow man, fuck them. So much.

Sadly, yes....

http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/editorials/2016/11/04/Toomey-for-Senate-The-Republican-incumbent-deserves-another-term/stories/201611300006
posted by splen at 9:38 AM on November 4, 2016

And I have not been invited to any sooper sekrit Hillary groups. I can understand why they need to be sooper sekrit, but it's bringing up middle-school trauma to read about "I'm in a KEWL exclusive group that's SOOPER SEKRIT and SO MUCH FUN!"

If it helps, think of them more as a safe space. So much of the rhetoric related to this election has been on topics that might be triggering. Sexual Assault/Rape. Racism. Sexism. Anti-Semitism. The list goes on and on. I think for many people, including myself, it's been a very anxious and upsetting year and a half.
posted by zarq at 9:39 AM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

> "Five. Nevada is currently a Democratic seat ..."

Whoops, I was wrong when I said this. You're right, because I didn't realize you weren't counting Illinois as competitive. So that would be one flip there, and they'd need four more. Sorry.
posted by kyrademon at 9:40 AM on November 4, 2016

If you want a window into the crazy, anti-government extremist expert JJ MacNab is tweeting about an Oath Keeper webinar about "Operation Sabo" (their election day plan to go undercover to document voter fraud). It includes the Oath Keeper's assessment of the groups they think are most likely to go violent before, during, and after the upcoming election. Her summary of their stance:

"If Trump wins, dems will turn violent.
If Clinton wins, dems will turn violent and set up conservatives to take the fall."

Because if you win election the next step is to frame your opponents that lost for funsies? It's scary that this is logical to grown adults who own guns.
posted by bluecore at 9:40 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

The strange thing as an outsider to PA is I haven't heard any negativity about McGinty

Come over and read my mail. Plenty of negative mailings, anyway. I don't watch TV so couldn't comment there.
posted by Dashy at 9:42 AM on November 4, 2016

As someone who lives in MO, can I just beg and plead that we are one of the Dem wins for Senate AND for Governor? Cause seriously, I can't handle Blunt anymore and Greitens is a scary inexperienced weirdo.
posted by teleri025 at 9:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

> The FBI vs. CIA split over the election is fascinating. I always sort of assumed there was "an establishment" where the top people pretty much, regardless of political differences, colluded... but this FBI stuff shows that there are multiple competing establishments.

That's one of the most important things I've learned from reading a lot of history: there are always multiple competing establishments. Even under autocracies the defense ministry and the interior ministry are at daggers drawn, etc. In fact, one way autocrats stay in power is by encouraging such competition and not letting any one establishment get too strong.

> I'm not entirely opposed to knee-jerk antiliberalism from the left but the number of people prone to such during the 2016 election who seem to either find fascism preferable to liberalism or be unconcerned about it is shocking and something I couldn't have predicted.

But that's exactly what knee-jerk antiliberalism from the left leads to. One reason Hitler was able to take power was the Comintern's dogged antagonism to anyone less radical than they (i.e., than Stalin); they preferred the Nazis to the German Social Democrats. See Wikipedia's Third Period article.
posted by languagehat at 9:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

> "Mass poll closures in battleground states create potential for Election Day chaos: It’s the first presidential election in 50 years without the full protection of the Voting Rights Act."

RAGE
posted by kyrademon at 9:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

> One of the lesser-reported stories about Florida is the number of Puerto Ricans who've arrived in the state (especially Orlando) since the last presidential election because of the debt-induced economic crisis in PR that the US Congress refuses to address. They're not immigrants; they're citizens who have gained the right to choose the president by relocating. They're not going to show up as likely voters. The Clinton campaign has been on a very focused registration push for them since the summer.

Yep. Even Selzer messed this up. She one of the best pollsters in the country, and her method of determining likely voters doesn't have same problems most pollsters do, but she polls only in English. To compensate for this, her Florida poll oversampled Hispanic voters then weighted the average to reflect the actual percentage of Hispanics in the Florida population. What she apparently didn't realize is that, in Florida, this procedure means substituting responses from Cuban-Americans, who are mostly second and third generation immigrants, for the responses they didn't get from Puerto Ricans who weren't comfortable taking a survey in English. (They're from an almost entirely Spanish-speaking US territory.) Cuban-Americans lean Republican and Puerto Ricans lean Democratic. (Puerto Rico's government has been under the control of a local party affiliated with the Democratic Party for the last couple decades. The number two party split from the Republicans in the 1960s and is more centrist than the current mainland US Republican Party.)

Bottom line: 'Hispanics' aren't a remotely monolithic group. If your going to do a poll in Florida, you've got to hire a call center that has bilingual employees. Statistical jiggering isn't going to fix it, and might make things worse.

Florida is close. But with most pollsters (even Selzer) undercounting Puerto Ricans in Florida one way or another, our chances might be better than the numbers indicate.
posted by nangar at 9:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [43 favorites]

FUCK YOU SCALIA.
posted by Artw at 9:45 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

The strange thing as an outsider to PA is I haven't heard any negativity about McGinty

Come over and read my mail. Plenty of negative mailings, anyway. I don't watch TV so couldn't comment there.

Every single commercial break has one or two anit-McGinty ads and, and one or two anti-Toomey ads.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Granted her margins aren't as good as Clinton's, but can I ask locals, why this level of doubt?

Hillary is +5.8 in PA right now
McGinty is +3.8 on the last polled average in the last week

There's not a doubt in my mind that Hillary will take PA.
There's not a doubt in my mind that roughly 0 percent of people who vote for Trump will cross over and vote McGinty
I honestly believe (and would love to be wrong) that more than 2 out of every 100 PA voters for Hillary will not vote McGinty.

McGinty and Toomey have had nothing but a negative campaign. I follow this stuff pretty regularly and I will vote for McGinty and I can't really tell you how she is distinguished from generic 'D' other than she's not Toomey. That's pretty bad. All negativity, all the time, and I think that hurts her. I honestly believe a not insignificant chunk of 'D' voters are going to leave it blank.

Add to that the PG endorsing Toomey in pretty glowing terms (not the lesser of two evils) and I think it's going to be a whole lot closer than +3.8% Plus, if there's a transit strike in Philly, that's McGinty votes down the drain.

I think McGinty will win but it'll be by <1%, especially after the PG endorsement of Toomey.
posted by splen at 9:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

The thing about Toomey is he's just normal levels of Republican evil, and he's got the name recognition advantage that all incumbents have. He's not a totally off the wall whackadoodle, he's a very boringly conservative businessman who has been typically mealy-mouthed about Trump. He's evil mayonnaise on evil white bread. So it's easy for people to just go, "Eh, he's fine, I think I recognize his name, he must be doing okay."

McGinty's problem is that she also doesn't inspire a ton of enthusiasm, but isn't an incumbent so has that up hill battle. She's a centrist Democrat from Philadelphia which is not exactly a rare creature in Pennsylvania politics.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

FUCK YOU SCALIA.

Never inappropriate, but let's also direct our hatred towards the living and FUCK YOU JOHN ROBERTS
posted by Existential Dread at 9:46 AM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

I admit I was curious about the secret FB groups -- and I guess a bit skeptical about the periodic updates about them that seemed so pat.

BUT hearing people talk about why they exist (to provide safe spaces) makes so much sense and was so well described. Thanks everyone who chimed in on that conversation.

I for one don't need to be part of one of the FB groups, but am glad people are finding comfort in them. Bonne courage!
posted by ianhattwick at 9:48 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

FUCK YOU SCALIA.

No, no, this is Roberts' doing. He's been on a crusade to destroy voting rights for 40 years. He was in Florida in 2000. A lot of conservatives will try and position him as the sane and reasonable one, but in this case he's the flaming bigoted "activist judge." Of course, almost every conservative loves the decision in Shelby v Holder, even the #NeverTrumpers.

On preview: what Existential Dread says.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:48 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Come over and read my mail. Plenty of negative mailings, anyway. I don't watch TV so couldn't comment there.

Every single commercial break has one or two anit-McGinty ads and, and one or two anti-Toomey ads.

I guess I didn't phrase this right. I don't perceive a coherent negative image for McGinty the way I do for Bayh ("crony who trades on his seat for money") or Murphy ("empty suit bankrolled by dad") from the outside.
posted by sallybrown at 9:48 AM on November 4, 2016

Every single commercial break has one or two anit-McGinty ads and, and one or two anti-Toomey ads.

My middle fingers have been getting quite a work out with all the Toomey ads. (I haven't seen a single pro-Trump ad, though. It's all McGinty vs. Toomey or pro-Hillary all the time.)
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:49 AM on November 4, 2016

I am currently vaguely pro-John Roberts because of this thing last night where he provided a courtesy fifth vote, even against his own judgment, to stay an execution.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

If your going to do a poll in Florida, you've got to hire a call center that has bilingual employees.

Working at a nonprofit in California that does a lot of telephone work, it's actually blowing my mind a little that any call center wouldn't have at least a third of its front line employees being bilingual in English and Spanish, much less one in Florida.
posted by infinitywaltz at 9:52 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I am currently vaguely pro-John Roberts because of this thing last night where he provided a courtesy fifth vote, even against his own judgment, to stay an execution.

I know someone who knew him fairly well in his early lawyer days and says he wavers on the death penalty and has been that way for years. I always thought, given the right case and the right circumstance, he could vote to strike it down.
posted by sallybrown at 9:53 AM on November 4, 2016

Working at a nonprofit in California that does a lot of telephone work, it's actually blowing my mind a little that any call center wouldn't have at least a third of its front line employees being bilingual in English and Spanish, much less one in Florida.

I internet-know a guy who works for a polling company, and he said that they've been having to hire high school students to keep up with the workload. They may just not be able to find enough Spanish-speaking polling workers to meet the demand.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:54 AM on November 4, 2016

(I also think that decision of Roberts could be a clue to how he is currently feeling about the Court vacancy and how he would feel about the new Republican "strategy" of leaving the seat open.)
posted by sallybrown at 9:56 AM on November 4, 2016

Every single commercial break has one or two anit-McGinty ads and, and one or two anti-Toomey ads.

This is why I haven't watched ten minutes of commercial TV other than the debates for the last four months. I couldn't even bring myself to watch the World Series because of the political ads and I haven't seen a football game yet this season.
posted by octothorpe at 9:56 AM on November 4, 2016

FunnyOrDie goes We Are the World.

Holy Shit You've Got to Vote
posted by chris24 at 9:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Have people seen Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College problem, explained? Is there some truth to the author's analysis?
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

It's scary that this is logical to grown adults who own guns.

And badges.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

The FBI vs. CIA split over the election is fascinating. I always sort of assumed there was "an establishment" where the top people pretty much, regardless of political differences, colluded... but this FBI stuff shows that there are multiple competing establishments.

See The President's Analyst for a broad caricature of this divide... the FBI as prudish flat-topped moral majority types, the CIA as louche, amoral Machiavellians. (or at least that's how I remember it, it's been a while.)
posted by condour75 at 10:00 AM on November 4, 2016

I too, was just added to a Super Sekrit Hillary FB page (initials PN). In my case, I knew they were out there but didn't get an invite until the group was hinted at in another friend's post and I dropped a hint myself. I was surprised to see how many of my friends were already in the group...and these are people who have no other connection than through me.

I've had to unfollow the group because it was choking my feed, but I drop into the page when I can. I agree it seems to be a safe space for people who otherwise might not want the hassle of dealing with the pushback they might get on their public page.
posted by Preserver at 10:00 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Does reality have an escape goat clause? Why does it feel like some politicians took one several years ago, and no one noticed?
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:02 AM on November 4, 2016

Guys, I just remembered that on Tuesday* I get to cast a vote for Hillary, Defender of Bunnies, as our next president, and that is a glorious feeling. If you don't help protect the baby bunnies, Jimbo,** there will be consequences.

*Early voting sounds great, but I can walk to my tiny village's polling place on Tuesday, whereas I'd need to beg a ride to another town in order to vote early.

**It's hard to punch a do-nothing Congress in the collective nose, but if there's anyone who can do it, it's her.
posted by salix at 10:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

it's weird to see the right stanning for Russia now

what is this "stanning" I keep seeing. I feel like the urbandictionary definition is not the one in use here
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

McGinty's problem is that she also doesn't inspire a ton of enthusiasm, but isn't an incumbent so has that up hill battle. She's a centrist Democrat from Philadelphia which is not exactly a rare creature in Pennsylvania politics.

She also doesn't have much of a record to run on anyway. She was the pro-coal commissioner of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, a do nothing rubber stamp position, which she then seemlessly transitioned into a fracking lobbyist job. She's basically Evan Bayh without the first Senate term.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:04 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh but McGinty's just got a key endorsement that will put her over the top in Western PA.
Donny Iris!
posted by octothorpe at 10:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Donny Iris!

I fucking love "Ah Leah" and I don't care who knows it.
posted by chris24 at 10:08 AM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

I feel like the urbandictionary definition is not the one in use here

The first U-D definition seems to have it right. Think incredible deep fandom to the point of being creepy/scary.
posted by drezdn at 10:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Have people seen Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College problem, explained? Is there some truth to the author's analysis?

It seems like an article that Vox might have wanted to publish six months ago, when things were more theoretical, but now that we actually have polls to look at in all these states he's discussing just four days out, we have a decent idea how she's going to do in the Electoral College?
posted by ejs at 10:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Skipping ahead to note that I have a crown that is acting up and my dentist appointment is Tuesday. I'm so glad I voted early.
VOTE EARLY IF YOU STILL CAN!
posted by mon-ma-tron at 10:12 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Have people seen Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College problem, explained? Is there some truth to the author's analysis?

Ignore it. Everything it is saying is true - but nothing is amazingly relevant for 2016 at this point in the game.
posted by Francis at 10:12 AM on November 4, 2016

Fun HFA ad - Will Ferrell: comedian, actor, just your average Millennial
posted by palindromic at 10:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

> "Have people seen Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College problem, explained? Is there some truth to the author's analysis?"

I've seen the same analysis elsewhere. It could matter, but only if the election ends up being very close.
posted by kyrademon at 10:13 AM on November 4, 2016

Does reality have an escape goat clause? Why does it feel like some politicians took one several years ago, and no one noticed?

we noticed. we noticed the 'moral majority'. we noticed newt gingrich. we noticed the blow job impeachment. we noticed no WMD's. we noticed PATRIOT act. we noticed NRA. we noticed 'mission accomplished'. we noticed sub-prime. we noticed 8 years of congressional nothing. we noticed 50+ attempts to repeal ACA. we noticed 33 Benghazi hearings. it feels that way because it is accurate. but we noticed. yes we did.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 10:14 AM on November 4, 2016 [52 favorites]

I fucking love "Ah Leah" and I don't care who knows it.

Me too, but I gotta tell you my mental picture of Donny Iris did not at ALL agree with reality.
posted by Mooski at 10:14 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Texas Tribune: Party leaders' rhetoric leaves Texas Republican women reeling

Interviews with Texas Republican female consultants, lobbyists, activists and aspiring politicians reveal a common sentiment: They no longer feel welcome in their own party.

I hope this turns into appreciable results in the presidential race in Texas.

Side Note: I'm growing increasingly that my Texas absentee ballot, mailed express from Austria on October 26, isn't going to be counted. I check Texas' FPCA Ballot Tracker regularly. According to that tool, my ballot has not yet arrived. :(
posted by syzygy at 10:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

Here’s a Short Film About a Mexican Mother Buying a Trump Piñata
posted by kirkaracha at 10:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

I think there are too many unknowns, and unknown unknowns as the great donny rumsfeld would say, to really predict the senate. Everything from LV pools to how much people split their ballots, do people want a check on Clinton, and the possibility of overpowering minority voter registration and turnout. It's really not possible to evaluate from the outside. Anything can happen there even in "safe" states. I said upthread that I'm not worried about the Presidential race precisely because all the unknown information is probably helping Clinton, even if we don't know how much. But in the senate it can cut both ways. So please vote.
posted by Glibpaxman at 10:16 AM on November 4, 2016

Guys, guys, guys! I have been married for multiple decades. In all those years, my husband has never voted, because he says it doesn't matter in Texas, the incumbents will always win, and Texas hasn't gone Dem since before LBJ. But this year, he registered, and he just voted. (Not in small part, I am sure, because I told him if we had a trumptastrophe, and he hadn't voted, I would never make chicken fried steak or cream gravy again.) I make really good cfs, y'all.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 10:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [150 favorites]

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force

Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home. The National Socialist Movement, various factions of the Ku Klux Klan and the white nationalist American Freedom Party all are deploying members to watch polls, either “informally” or, they say, through the Trump campaign.

The Oath Keepers, a group of former law enforcement and military members that often shows up in public heavily armed, is advising members to go undercover and conduct “intelligence-gathering” at polling places, and Donald Trump ally Roger Stone is organizing his own exit polling, aiming to monitor thousands of precincts across the country.

Energized by Trump’s candidacy and alarmed by his warnings of a “rigged election,” white nationalist, alt-right and militia movement groups are planning to come out in full force on Tuesday, creating the potential for conflict at the close of an already turbulent campaign season.

“The possibility of violence on or around Election Day is very real,” said Mark Potok of the Southern Poverty Law Center. “Donald Trump has been telling his supporters for weeks and weeks and weeks now that they are about to have the election stolen from them by evil forces on behalf of the elites.”

It is difficult to know at what scale these plans will materialize, because Anglin and his fringe-right ilk are serial exaggerators, according to Potok. And rather than successfully uncover widespread voter fraud — for which there is a lack of compelling evidence — or successfully suppress minority turnout, Potok said the efforts are most likely to backfire.

The NAACP tweeted this out with the message "If someone tries to stop you from voting, take their picture and call 1-866-OUR-VOTE. Lawyers will be ready."
posted by zachlipton at 10:17 AM on November 4, 2016 [53 favorites]

SecretAgentSockpuppet, I faved your comment right as it popped up for me, but five other people apparently did so at the same time. Must be the chicken fried steak.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 10:19 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Brian Williams (of all people) DESTROBLITEVISCERATES Mark Halperin for his coverage of Trump. The look on Halperin's face has brightened my otherwise "meh" Friday.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:20 AM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

I just asked one of my friends to add me to the super secret Hillary FB group she's in (initials: PN), and it's already doing an amazing job of taking my mind off the noise and bullshit around this election.

The group isn't just for women, because I can see a couple of my (strongly feminist) male pals are members too, but I'm sure it's a safe space. And the stories the women are sharing? Wow. Just wow.

It will definitely take over your FB feed, but it will make you feel a million times better. See if you can get an invitation from a friend -- it's a good parallel source to these Metafilter threads.
posted by vickyverky at 10:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

@BretBaier apologizes for his false reporting on the Clinton Foundation: "It wasn't just inartful, it was a mistake." (video)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

I would never make chicken fried steak or cream gravy again

Aw man, I haven't lived in Texas in 15 years and not had a good chicken fried steak since. And now I'm jonesing hard. [checks Seamless for NYC options]
posted by chris24 at 10:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

So Bret Baier just went on Fox News and admitted he was full of crap when he said that the FBI has evidence "that would likely lead to an indictment:

I explained a couple of times yesterday the phrasing of one of my answers to Brit Hume on Wednesday night, saying it was inartful, the way I answered the last question about whether the investigations would continue after the election. And I answered that, yes, our sources said it would. They would continue to likely to an indictment. Well, that just wasn't inartful, it was a mistake, and for that I'm sorry. I should have said, they will continue to build their case. Indictment obviously is a very loaded word, Jon, especially in this atmosphere and no one knows if there would or would not be an indictment no matter how strong investigators feel their evidence is. It is obviously a prosecutor who has to agree to take the case and make that case to a grand jury. We stand by the sourcing, on the ongoing active Clinton Foundation investigation and are working to get sources with knowledge of the details on the record, and on camera. Hopefully today.

posted by zachlipton at 10:23 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Oh but McGinty's just got a key endorsement that will put her over the top in Western PA.
Donny Iris!

I take back everything I said previously--McGinty will win +102.5

(looks stupid to anyone outside western PA...inside western PA, it is comedy gold!)
posted by splen at 10:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home.

Trying to imagine a shave-headed, camo-and-shades wearing, gun-toting white dude trying to hand out liquor and marijuana 'in the ghetto' and failing
posted by Existential Dread at 10:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [55 favorites]

His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to [...] hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home

Hokay, well I think I hit my "is this real life" threshold for the day, so I'm checking out. Keep fighting the good fight, everybody out there.
posted by penduluum at 10:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Well, that just wasn't inartful, it was a mistake

I think there's a distinction to be made between 'it was a mistake' and 'I lied like a fucking carpet.'

Just saying.
posted by Mooski at 10:25 AM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

Trying to imagine a shave-headed, camo-and-shades wearing, gun-toting white dude trying to hand out liquor and marijuana 'in the ghetto' and failing

Mr. Lahey & Randy
posted by mannequito at 10:26 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

Have people seen Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College problem, explained? Is there some truth to the author's analysis?

Let's see...

Trump’s biggest electoral strength has been adding more white working-class voters [...] These voters, fortunately for him, are quite numerous in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Maine’s Second Congressional District, which allocates its electoral vote independently from the statewide winner. They also mean that Trump is polling better in Pennsylvania and Michigan than Mitt Romney ever did.

Based on polling, no fucking way she loses Pennsylvania or Michigan. Polling better than Mitt =/= winning. She is likely to lose Iowa and Ohio (Maine 2 is a tossup) but her path to 270 doesn't include them. Nevada has actually gotten more Hispanic and based on EV results is close to a lock for her already, with 60% of the projected vote already in.

Nevada and Florida are swing states and do have big Hispanic populations, but other demographic elements in those states favor Trump, so the demographic switcheroo is a wash there.

Already covered Nevada; Florida's early voting shows an absolutely massive increase in Hispanic turnout, as well as (based on exit polls) larger-than-expected aisle-crossing by Republicans (probably a lot of these are Cubans). Youth turnout is also up in Florida. Florida is a tossup but leans D.

North Carolina, where Clinton’s greater strength with white college graduates is helping her, is also a wash because reduced turnout by the state’s large black population hurts her.

Black turnout is actually not down as much as it initially seemed; early voting locations opened first in majority-white areas (fuck the NC GOP forever). The wildcard in NC is the absolutely massive unaffiliated turnout, which trends young. NC is in my opinion the only true tossup left.

The only battlegrounds where the demographic switcheroo is unambiguously in her favor are Virginia, where she’s so solid it’s hardly even a battleground, and Colorado, which is close but considerably less close than it was for Obama.

lol forever at the idea that these are swing states now.

Also she does not actually need Nevada, Florida, or North Carolina to win.

Of all the states mentioned above she does need Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Colorado. Current chances via NYT Upshot are:

PA 90% D 77% D >99% D 92% D 90% D 99% D Lean D Lean D Likely D
MI 90% D 78% D 99% D 97% D 93% D >99% D Lean D Lean D Likely D
CO 85% D 76% D >99% D 91% D 87% D 98% D Lean D Likely D Likely D
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:26 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

@SubodhChandra: BREAKING: US Judge Gwin is granting a temporary-restraining order against @realDonaldTrump campaign to forbid voter-intimidation!
posted by zombieflanders at 10:26 AM on November 4, 2016 [63 favorites]

Trump is now furiously asking what part of Mexico the name "Gwin" comes from.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Am I the only one who finds links to tweets to be useless? It's just "hey somebody said this thing" not a thing in itself.
posted by OHenryPacey at 10:31 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

@SubodhChandra: BREAKING: US Judge Gwin is granting a temporary-restraining order against @realDonaldTrump campaign to forbid voter-intimidation!

@realdonaldtrump: "Judge Gwin has made his decision; Now let him enforce it" [fake]
posted by Talez at 10:31 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

But this year, he registered, and he just voted. (Not in small part, I am sure, because I told him if we had a trumptastrophe, and he hadn't voted, I would never make chicken fried steak or cream gravy again.)

I was wondering when Disney would make their own version of Lysistrata!
posted by ejs at 10:32 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

Just signed up for the MeFi Phone Bank and made 30 calls on my lunch break to my fellow North Carolinians. It was super easy, and surprisingly OK/non-panic-inducing for this ultra introvert! Planning to do more after work, and get the hubby on his phone, too.

I can't vote, but that doesn't mean I don't have a voice!
posted by Dorinda at 10:32 AM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

Trump is now furiously asking what part of Mexico the name "Gwin" comes from.

Cuba. Gwintanemo Bay.

Sorry
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:32 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Whoa, have there indeed been mass closures of polling locations? Mass poll closures in battleground states create potential for Election Day chaos
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:33 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Many of the women in these groups are telling stories of abusive partners, abusive families, sexual assaults, being left to die after ectopic pregnancies or botched abortions, reprisals in workplaces, and the ongoing harassment they experience in their communities for being anything other than vocal Trump-supporters. (Remaining silent has resulted in attacks for many of them.)

Washington has all-absentee voting now. I disliked it at first, because I get a little joy out of getting out of the house and voting in person, but I recognize it's far more efficient. It also lets you vote with less pressure because you can sit with your favorite voting guide or whatever & not worry about holding up a line.

It was only the last couple weeks of this election that made me think twice about that. How many people out there live with abusive, controlling partners? Presumably more women than men, surely, but we know the reverse happens, too. And there are plenty of other in-home relations (parent/adult child, etc) that may face the same danger. How many people out there can't vote the way they want to if they vote from home?

I keep thinking about how many women (and probably not a few men) really need the privacy of the voting booth.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:34 AM on November 4, 2016 [40 favorites]

So Bret Baier just went on Fox News and admitted he was full of crap when he said that the FBI has evidence "that would likely lead to an indictment:

I explained a couple of times yesterday the phrasing of one of my answers to Brit Hume on Wednesday night, saying it was inartful, the way I answered the last question about whether the investigations would continue after the election. And I answered that, yes, our sources said it would. They would continue to likely to an indictment. Well, that just wasn't inartful, it was a mistake, and for that I'm sorry. I should have said, they will continue to build their case. Indictment obviously is a very loaded word, Jon, especially in this atmosphere and no one knows if there would or would not be an indictment no matter how strong investigators feel their evidence is. It is obviously a prosecutor who has to agree to take the case and make that case to a grand jury. We stand by the sourcing, on the ongoing active Clinton Foundation investigation and are working to get sources with knowledge of the details on the record, and on camera. Hopefully today.

I suspect either they were threatened with a lawsuit or someone is FINALLY coming down on the NY FBI office and the Fox News source sent a mayday for Fox to stop attributing these comments to the FBI.
posted by sallybrown at 10:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Per this article from a couple days ago, this is what Judge Gwin's ruling means:

"If U.S. District Judge James Gwin were to grant the restraining order requested by Democrats, Trump supporters would be forbidden from protesting against a candidate several hundred feet away from a polling place, from "suggesting" that someone illegally voting may be subject to prosecution "or from simply asking fellow citizens for whom they voted," the brief says."

It is also an Ohio ruling, not nationwide.
posted by chris24 at 10:37 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

scaryblackdeath: It was only the last couple weeks of this election that made me think twice about that. How many people out there live with abusive, controlling partners? Presumably more women than men, surely, but we know the reverse happens, too. And there are plenty of other in-home relations (parent/adult child, etc) that may face the same danger. How many people out there can't vote the way they want to if they vote from home?

There's also the possibility your employer could make you fill it out in front of them to keep your job.
posted by Mitrovarr at 10:38 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Here's some lighthearted humor: @CBSNews It's official -- President Obama has been in the White House for eight full years! (real)
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:40 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Whoa, have there indeed been mass closures of polling locations? Mass poll closures in battleground states create potential for Election Day chaos

Yes. But it's not like they were open last week and now they're closed; it's just that they used to be polling places in past elections and now, for this one, they're not. Basically, if you don't have a ride, and can't mail in your ballot, you don't get to vote. That's how they get you.
posted by Sys Rq at 10:40 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Whoa, have there indeed been mass closures of polling locations? Mass poll closures in battleground states create potential for Election Day chaos

Yes. The GOP's long-game strategy has been to take over state legislatures in time for redistricting, gerrymander the districts to cement a majority in the House despite the fact that there are more democrats than republicans, then use a multipronged strategy to suppress voter turnout, because the past has shown that when turnout is high, Democrats win, but when it is low, the GOP has the edge.
posted by dis_integration at 10:41 AM on November 4, 2016 [26 favorites]

Um, Obama didn't enter the White House until January, CBS.
posted by Sys Rq at 10:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Here's some lighthearted humor: @CBSNews It's official -- President Obama has been in the White House for eight full years!

It's already Inauguration Day? Oh thank god. Who's getting sworn in?
posted by zachlipton at 10:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [26 favorites]

It's the talking about it in front of others who are not invited that's, not rude per se, but a little middle-schoolish, like talking about a party in front of people who are not invited. That's all.

Since I'm the person who posted about how much I like the secret group I finally got invited to today, I can't help but think this is directed at me. I'm sorry that you feel like I'm being a middle school bitch by talking about this awesome group in front of you, but I also posted in-thread that anyone who wanted in should MeMail me and I'd help them, so...
posted by palomar at 10:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

I have a friend who was leaving the polling place in Columbus, responded "Hell no" when asked if she voted for Trump, and was called a cunt by a group of men standing far enough outside the polling place that they were allowed to have Trump signs. At least they weren't armed - Ohio is an open carry state. I wouldn't mind at all if they barred everyone from political stuff within a larger radius of polling places. Voter intimidation is real and a major problem.
posted by ChuraChura at 10:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [34 favorites]

I keep thinking about how many women (and probably not a few men) really need the privacy of the voting booth.

My elderly parents both voted absentee this year, and I filled out the ballots for them. Now, I went over each selection before I marked it to get their agreement, then handed the ballots back to them for their review and signature. But how many people in abusive relationships have their absentee ballots filled out by their partners and then have their signatures forged?
posted by jessian at 10:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Just signed up for the MeFi Phone Bank and made 30 calls on my lunch break to my fellow North Carolinians. It was super easy, and surprisingly OK/non-panic-inducing for this ultra introvert!

Good on you!

Some people like the "comfort of your own home" calling, but others (like me) prefer to go to call centers and work alongside other in an office-lite environment. If the latter sounds more your speed, you can find one nearby here. (If the former is more appealing, see the link in this FPP)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:48 AM on November 4, 2016

I've been a registered Democrat for as long as I've been registered, and I've lived here a while, and I've donated to Democratic campaigns, and: what kind of phone list are they working off of where I would ever been flagged as a Republican voter or possible Republican voter?

I keep a yahoo mail account specifically for e-commerce accounts so my real email isn't cluttered with marketing crap. I don't sign up for anything political using it, ever. Last week I looked in the spam folder of it, and over the past month the typical garbage of pr0n and v1agra ads were replaced with (legitimate) emails from the Trump campaign. It's just a theory, but I think the Trump strategy of targeting voters is literally identical to a shotgun spammer. This is a super bad strategy, so I hope the theory is correct.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:50 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I recall in one of the earlier threads someone said even in all-absentee ballot states, you have the ability to go to a local government office and cancel your ballot and fill out a new one. Not that that would cover everyone who was pressured, but that's one of the ways of dealing with the dangers.

Has there ever been a study of the influence partners have on voting, the rate at which people are pressured to vote by spousal influence, or the rate at which people claim to vote one way but then vote another (like a marriage-related Bradley effect)? I guess it would be almost impossible to measure...
posted by sallybrown at 10:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Former Governor John H. Sununu: "Do you think Bill was referring to Hillary when he said: 'I did not have sex with that woman?'"

*deep breath* *deep breath* *deep bre-- SMASH THE PATRIARCHYYYYYYYYYYY ALREADY MY GOD
posted by sallybrown at 10:55 AM on November 4, 2016 [64 favorites]

Not that we didn't already know, but pretty interesting that they just admit it.

Rudy Giuliani Confirms FBI Insiders Leaked Information To The Trump Campaign

"All of this has led to suspicion that someone in the FBI is leaking information to Giuliani and the Trump campaign. The Daily Beast’s Wayne Barrett explored those suspicions on Thursday, detailing how Giuliani’s ties to the agency date back to his days as a U.S. attorney in the 1980s.

Giuliani confirmed that notion Friday during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.”

“I did nothing to get it out, I had no role in it,” he said. “Did I hear about it? You’re darn right I heard about it, and I can’t even repeat the language that I heard from the former FBI agents.”

Giuliani also said he expected Comey’s announcement to come weeks before it did.

“I had expected this for the last, honestly, to tell you the truth, I thought it was going to be about three or four weeks ago, because way back in July this started, they kept getting stymied looking for subpoenas, looking for records,” he said. "

posted by chris24 at 10:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

When I married my husband, he was apolitical, leaning right, and had never voted. Flash forward several years now, and he's voted several times and has already asked to take off work early to make sure he can pull the lever for Clinton. I have never directly pressured him (except to call him a ninny for not even being registered), but I have definitely influenced him and I'm not even sure he's aware of it, exactly. So glad I'm using my powers for good.
posted by thebrokedown at 10:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [31 favorites]

This is unfortunate because emailgate, like so many Clinton pseudo-scandals before it, is bullshit. The real scandal here is the way a story that was at best of modest significance came to dominate the US presidential election.

No one should be surprised. During the 90s Congress spent 140 hours of congressional hearings investigating the Clinton's Christmas card list.

You can and should expect more of the same immediately after the election and continuing until long after Hillary leaves office. The Whitewater case began in 1992, before Bill Clinton's election and continued until 2002, long after he left office. The 10 year investigation ended with no evidence of crimes.
posted by JackFlash at 10:58 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

Techdirt: FBI Opens Internal Investigation Into One Of Its Own Twitter Accounts Because Good Lord This Year Is So Stupid

(Actual title)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:59 AM on November 4, 2016 [23 favorites]

I don't believe a word Giuliani says, even when it does coincide with what I want to be the truth.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 10:59 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

because I told him if we had a trumptastrophe, and he hadn't voted, I would never make chicken fried steak or cream gravy again

He would deserve it, too.
posted by ArgentCorvid at 11:01 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Okay, maybe I'm being paranoid here, but if Hillary wins, doesn't that mean the Democrats are going to lose Kaine's seat in the Senate?. And if he did stay, surely, he can't vote twice: once as Senator once as Senate pro-tem.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:03 AM on November 4, 2016

Democratic governor in Virginia. Another Dem gets put in Kaine's place
posted by mcstayinskool at 11:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Okay, maybe I'm being paranoid here, but if Hillary wins, doesn't that mean the Democrats are going to lose Kaine's seat in the Senate.

Democratic Governor appoints Dem replacement.
posted by chris24 at 11:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Okay, maybe I'm being paranoid here, but if Hillary wins, doesn't that mean the Democrats are going to lose Kaine's seat in the Senate.

Dem. Gov., Dem. Appointee. It's fine.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:05 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

He'll get replaced with a temporary appointee by the Democratic governor of Virginia, so the Dems won't lose the seat.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 11:06 AM on November 4, 2016

Okay, maybe I'm being paranoid here, but if Hillary wins, doesn't that mean the Democrats are going to lose Kaine's seat in the Senate.

The replacement gets appointed by the Governor of Virginia. Who happens to be a Democrat. We had this one out with the VP nomination :)
posted by Francis at 11:06 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Lol.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:07 AM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Okay, maybe I'm being paranoid here, but if Hillary wins, doesn't that mean the Democrats are going to lose Kaine's seat in the Senate. And if he did stay, surely, he can't vote twice: once as Senator once as Senate pro-tem.

The governor gets to appoint a replacement until another election is held. Considering that it's Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat (who used to work with the Clintons, no less), it's a safe seat for now. And considering VA has gone blue in statewide elections even in the midterm and midterm-of-the-midterm elections, it's likely to stay that way.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:07 AM on November 4, 2016

Guys we need to coordinate this at the meetings before we post.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 11:08 AM on November 4, 2016 [59 favorites]

STOP FOLLOWING ME FROM IN FRONT!
posted by zombieflanders at 11:08 AM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

The Governor of Virginia is $20 SAIT, o wait is that not what we're all doing here?
posted by zachlipton at 11:08 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

this is what they mean by "echo chamber" isn't it
posted by koeselitz at 11:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [60 favorites]

You can and should expect more of the same immediately after the election and continuing until long after Hillary leaves office.

that is, you can expect more of the same if everyone ignores the down-ticket races. However, if you can also help to get out the vote on the down-ticket races, and get out the jackasses who took part in Whitewater and such, it could end sooner.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Like Hillary hadn't thought of that. She's the goddamn Batman.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

That's why I didn't want Kaine to be the pick. The 2017 VA special election will be lower turnout along with the governor's race, and the Democratic incumbent will have a slight advantage, but is not a guarantee to stay blue. It was a needless risk. Kaine is fine, but he's not swaying the election on his own, he's probably not even swinging Virginia from red, and plenty of other VP picks could've done the same job.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:09 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

As a slightly broader PSA, it seems worth reminding activists that you probably should be devoting at least some of your time to the Senate at this point, even at the cost of doing less for the presidential campaign. Clinton at this point is very likely to win based on all quantitative data, and your incremental contribution to that electoral success is probably pretty small at this stage. But your contribution to a close Senate race, with the Senate in the balance, could be significantly larger, even with just four days left. Folks already probably know the close Senate races, but one list is here. Without the Senate, the Supreme Court is deeply screwed, and most models are pretty sure that Republicans will take the Senate in 2018. All the models have the Senate right on the cusp of changing party control but sliding ever so slightly in the wrong direction, and a few solid nudges in a couple states could make a big difference. So if you aren't active for a campaign, reach out to the nearest tight Senate campaign if you can, and if you're active in the presidential race, think about at least giving some of your time to a Senate campaign if you can, and urge others to do the same. I wouldn't say this sort of thing on CNN where I could influence thousands of activists and materially hurt Clinton's chances, but in personal communication, when you are deciding on an individual level, your marginal contribution to the Senate is at the moment much greater than the presidency, for all the attention that the latter tends to absorb.
posted by chortly at 11:10 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Like Hillary hadn't thought of that. She's the goddamn Batman.

I disagree. Fewer emotional problems, constantly having to overcome wounds inflicted by other men's bullshit, and irrefutably brilliant.
She's Barbara Gordon, surely.

(Election comic book analogies, Round 23, begin!)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

This is both awesome and frightening. From the Guardian.

The A-Z of Trump: 26 Illustrators Picture a Ghastly Future
posted by chris24 at 11:11 AM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

The "governor appoints replacement senator" thing is part of the reason I was beating the drum for Elizabeth Warren NOT to be the VP nominee from the day of the convention. Do you want Scott Brown in the Senate? Because that is how you get Scott Brown in the Senate. (Unless he revoked his MA eligibility when he went carpetbagging in New Hampshire)
posted by Mayor West at 11:12 AM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

That might be how we get Curt Schilling in the Senate.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 11:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

MotherJones trying to kill us: What's the GOP Strategy for 2020?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 11:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Be careful... if you say his name two more times, he appears behind you wearing a bloody sock.
posted by Mayor West at 11:13 AM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Or posts another meme.
posted by drezdn at 11:15 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

But this year, he registered, and he just voted. (Not in small part, I am sure, because I told him if we had a trumptastrophe, and he hadn't voted, I would never make chicken fried steak or cream gravy again.)

Lechestrata!
posted by phearlez at 11:15 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

Wikileaks is in the position of both having a level of some credibility that they more or less lucked into (Poor Chelsea Manning, then the more canny Snowden).

Am I missing something? Didn't Snowden provide NSA documents directly to journalists rather than going through Wikileaks? I don't recall him ever providing a massive doc-dump to Wikileaks like Manning did. Other than Wikileaks helping Snowden safely exit Hong Kong, I'm not aware that they ever worked together. (Their approaches have been starkly different, too; Snowden redacted documents in some cases to protect innocent people, if I recall correctly.)
posted by duffell at 11:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Start a draft Michelle for Senate campaign. Think of her, Bernie, and Warren together.
posted by Glibpaxman at 11:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Meanwhile, in the race for endorsements from newspapers, magazines and periodicals going into the final weekend:

Clinton has comfortably broken past the 400 mark and now has 425 such endorsements. Of these, 78 have circulations greater than 100,000 people. In addition, at least 45 of these publications endorsed Mitt Romney four years ago. (At least 158 endorsed Barack Obama.)

An official "no endorsement" comes at a faint, distant second place with 55 publications. Of those, 6 have circulations greater than 100,000 people. About 43 of them endorsed Mitt Romney last time, 3 endorsed Barack Obama, and 1 endorsed Gary Johnson.

Coming in an even more distant third place are endorsements for "anybody but Donald Trump" -- a total of 18 publications, with 6 of them having a circulation of greater than 100,000. At least 1 endorsed Mitt Romney last time and at least 1 endorsed Barack Obama.

Arguably coming in a very, very weak fourth place (but see below) is Donald Trump, who has finally broken into double digits with 12 endorsements. Only 1 has a circulation greater than 100,000. At least 8 of these endorsed of these Mitt Romney last time.

Gary Johnson has 6 endorsements, so by that measure he is in fifth place. However, since 3 of his endorsements come from newspapers with circulations greater than 100,000, the circulation spread of these endorsements swamps Donald Trump's by a considerable margin, perhaps 2 and a half times as many people -- so it could easily be argued that Johnson is, in fact, in fourth place and Donald Trump is in fifth place. 3 newspapers endorsing Gary Johnson this time around endorsed Mitt Romney last time, and 2 endorsed Barack Obama.

I probably don't need to tell you that this is a completely unprecedented spread; never in history has one major party candidate received more than 35 times the number of endorsements as the other. Donald Trump has less than 3% of Hillary Clinton's number of endorsements. I haven't calculated the difference in circulation spread, but it is undoubtedly an even larger disparity. As a comparison, from what I can determine, in 2008 Barack Obama received about 164 endorsements and Mitt Romney received about 111.

Now, I suspect polling is showing us what has long been suspected -- these endorsements mean very little these days, if they ever did, in terms of swaying actual voter opinion. Nonetheless, I would like to salute the courage of the well over 400 editorial boards, whether right-leaning, left-leaning, or centrist, that are standing up against an unqualified, racist, sexist, lying, and frankly dangerous candidate, especially since some of them are doing so in the face of canceled subscriptions, or even death threats.
posted by kyrademon at 11:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [68 favorites]

Really every Democratic Senator is too valuable where they are. None of them should be in consideration for ANY executive appointment in a Clinton administration.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:16 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

The 2017 VA special election will be lower turnout along with the governor's race, and the Democratic incumbent will have a slight advantage, but is not a guarantee to stay blue.

Virginia governors can't serve consecutive terms. Ralph Northam (current LtGov) has said he's going to run.
posted by Etrigan at 11:17 AM on November 4, 2016

As we get closer to the election, I get less sure of how I should divide my time between (a) donating, working on ground game, persuading people on Facebook, vs. (b) taking private moments to retreat into dark corners and dry-heave out my feelings on how ludicrous this all is and how hard it seems to be and who, if anyone, is taking crazy pills here
posted by savetheclocktower at 11:18 AM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Virginia governors can't serve consecutive terms

The incumbent Senator appointed by McAullife will have a slight advantage by way of being in office for a year before the special election.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:21 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Like Hillary hadn't thought of that. She's the goddamn Batman.

I disagree. Fewer emotional problems, constantly having to overcome wounds inflicted by other men's bullshit, and irrefutably brilliant. She's Barbara Gordon, surely.

She comes from a working class background, has plans within plans, considers standing up to bullies to be a core personal value, and the dream that was the United States may well depend on her. She's goddamn Captain America.
posted by EatTheWeek at 11:22 AM on November 4, 2016 [57 favorites]

Trying to imagine a shave-headed, camo-and-shades wearing, gun-toting white dude trying to hand out liquor and marijuana 'in the ghetto' and failing

Marijuana is decriminalized in my city, so if they want to come on up to my place with liquor and weed, they're welcome. I'm going to vote first thing, so I'll be ready to kick back with a spliff by the time they get there.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:23 AM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

Do you want Scott Brown in the Senate? Because that is how you get Scott Brown in the Senate.

Not really. In Massachusetts, the state has to call a special election to replace a senator who quits or dies to fill out the rest of his or her term (the Democratic legislature did this to screw with Mitt Romney, natch). Scott Brown won the special election because Martha Coakley ran a horrible campaign and Brown ran as one of those MoR Republicans we love to elect to prominent positions when the Democrat runs a horrible campaign (we may be solid blue, but we hate being taken for granted). Two years later, Scotto ran against Elizabeth Warren for a full term and she wasn't a horrible candidate (and then Coakley ran again, for governor, and guess what?).
posted by adamg at 11:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

he's probably not even swinging Virginia from red

I disagree, and think Kaine is a good pick with a payoff on a lot of levels. I'd contend he's a very Clinton-esque pick in this way - he's not a home run on any one thing, but a solid utility player who appeals on a lot of factors and props up a lot of areas for her.

But then, I would think that; I'm a Virginian who has voted for Kaine multiple times and am happy to have gotten to make another vote for him in second chair. I think you underestimate the vulnerability of Virginia to going red and the appeal Kaine has here. Just because it's not flashy doesn't mean it's not there.

Virginia governors can't serve consecutive terms

TDS was speaking of the appointee, who will be an incumbent (albeit only a 10 month one) in the 2017 election which Virginia law says is when the seat will need to be open to candidates.
posted by phearlez at 11:24 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

A page from a Toomey / PA GOP phone canvassing script was released a few days back to show that they're reaching out to those who won't vote for Trump. Makes perfect sense, of course, but it's a reminder that the GOTV operation has largely been outsourced to state Republicans who, if given the choice, may prefer to fight down the ballot for their local candidates than try to persuade waverers about the top of the ticket.
posted by holgate at 11:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Glibpaxman: Start a draft Michelle for Senate campaign.

Leave Michelle alone. That poor woman has said she wants no part of governing in her future and who can blame her.
posted by chonus at 11:29 AM on November 4, 2016 [64 favorites]

So what are the chances the FBI arrests Clinton before Monday?
posted by guiseroom at 11:29 AM on November 4, 2016

well that was a fart in the room
posted by angrycat at 11:33 AM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

Maybe I should have said odds, not chances. I just feel like everything is going down the drain for Clinton and Trump's going to win and I can't function like a normal person until this is all over.
posted by guiseroom at 11:34 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I disagree, and think Kaine is a good pick with a payoff on a lot of levels. I'd contend he's a very Clinton-esque pick in this way - he's not a home run on any one thing, but a solid utility player who appeals on a lot of factors and props up a lot of areas for her.

But then, I would think that; I'm a Virginian who has voted for Kaine multiple times and am happy to have gotten to make another vote for him in second chair. I think you underestimate the vulnerability of Virginia to going red and the appeal Kaine has here. Just because it's not flashy doesn't mean it's not there.

This. I don't want Bill or even Obama. I want Merrick Garlands. I want vanilla & non-threatening and consistently advancing policy in a thousand anodyne and difficult to politicize ways. I want to bore them to sleep, to make it much harder to spin up their outrage machine.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:35 AM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

I'd contend he's a very Clinton-esque pick in this way - he's not a home run on any one thing, but a solid utility player who appeals on a lot of factors and props up a lot of areas for her.

Worth remembering: John Oliver on Tim Kaine before the DNC, versus John Oliver on Tim Kaine during the DNC.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

I can't function like a normal person until this is all over.

Call your local field office and they'll provide you with ample distraction.
posted by holgate at 11:36 AM on November 4, 2016 [27 favorites]

Leave Michelle alone. That poor woman has said she wants no part of governing in her future and who can blame her.

I know. I just want what I can't have. She deserves a peaceful life with her kids and husband away from all this shit but.. How awesome would it be?
posted by Glibpaxman at 11:40 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

It was always going to be Kaine:

People close to Clinton were telling me, as early as February, that there really wasn’t anyone else on their short list. The main reason Clinton chose Kaine is so simple as to be unbelievable: She thinks he could serve as president if she can’t, and didn’t think anyone else she talked to fit that criterion.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:41 AM on November 4, 2016 [67 favorites]

CNN said Hillary has fallen to 268 EV according to their poll/projection whatever. That has my wife and I very upset. I can't get her to stop watching CNN. So I joined the Mefite United Calling group and made five calls in NC, no one home. I hate talking on the phone and was shaking during my first call. I'll keep calling. I don't know what else to do.
posted by marxchivist at 11:41 AM on November 4, 2016 [51 favorites]

If you feel like dropping in with hypothetical horror scenarios or to make fun of women in secret HRC Facebook groups and that's your way of letting off steam, please go volunteer or Swiffer your floor a real lot, thanks.
posted by zutalors! at 11:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

Hills just sent me an email with the subject line Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:42 AM on November 4, 2016 [95 favorites]

hahaha latest Clinton campaign email subject line: "Stop refreshing FiveThirtyEight"
posted by numaner at 11:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

What can we do when not only is our political system broken, but the media who are supposed to inform the public are broken too?

How do we create an entirely new Fourth Estate with standards, principles, and skill out of nothing?
posted by chonus at 11:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Glibpaxman: Start a draft Michelle for Senate campaign.

Leave Michelle alone. That poor woman has said she wants no part of governing in her future and who can blame her.

Michelle probably has 100 books she wants to read, 1000 margaritas she wants to drink with friends, so many charitable causes she wants to get started, and invaluable time she wants to spend with her family instead of trying to save all of us. I hope she and Barack take off somewhere for 3 weeks with good food, good wine, Oprah-style cashmere sweatsuits (my preferred relaxation method), maybe some masseuses, breakfast in bed, good sunsets to watch, and a lot of laughs.
posted by sallybrown at 11:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

dammit kirkaracha
posted by numaner at 11:43 AM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

So what are the chances the FBI arrests Clinton before Monday?

Two thoughts, no, three:

That's basically a coup. The FBI had better be ready to take down the Obama administration by force of arms if they do that. I'm not saying this could literally never happen in the US, but conditions are not now in place.

Second, know that everyone in the FBI and most politicians on the right do not want to overthrow the state in blood and fire - they want to get secure, not-too-hard-work-based, well-paid political and consulting jobs for themselves and their buddies until the end of time. All of this "let's overthrow everything in blood and fire" stuff is in the service of getting their buddy Trump elected so they can reap the sweet, sweet financial rewards. If there's a blood and fire scenario, it will not be because the FBI decides to overthrow the state but because the right's rhetoric has unhinged their base. That's scary, but not as scary as a coup.

Third, take note that we here on metafilter are following Wikileaks and all this unhinged stuff. Most people, even people anxious about the election and even most Republicans, are not. All those people are expecting that whatever happens, there will be a relatively stable transfer of power and the government will continue to function more or less as it has in the past - paying out social security, issuing licenses, etc. The weight of popular expectation is huge, and going against it - though not impossible - would require a very different set of circumstances.

The US has never had your classic blood-and-fire, martial-music-on-the-radio coup. Doing something that unprecedented and risky is a big deal, you're not guaranteed to win and if you do win you're not guaranteed to like the results.

The problem right now is, if anything, that a bunch of dumb people are so confident in the rule of law and the peaceful transfer of power that they are playing a bunch of rhetorical games, trying to scare everyone, pretending they don't want the rule of law when all they want is nice fat sinecures and big suburban houses in gated white communities. They simply aren't the men of whom coups are made - they're just coup LARPers.
posted by Frowner at 11:44 AM on November 4, 2016 [59 favorites]

Hills just sent me an email with the subject line Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight.

Trump may have the FBI in his pocket, but Hillary clearly has the NSA.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:45 AM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

The reason Clinton chose Kaine was because, as Charlie Pierce so aptly put it, he's so squeaky-clean that even the skeletons in his closet wear comfortable loafers. Were there other choices with the same qualities? I don't know, but I assume they knew Benghazi and e-mails would be the issue, so they wanted someone who wouldn't create any similar headaches.
posted by zombieflanders at 11:45 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

> "CNN said Hillary has fallen to 268 EV according to their poll/projection whatever."

That's with 66 EVs considered tossups, not with Trump getting all the rest. Basically, they're saying they think Hillary will win 268, and then she'd need to win any one of: Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, or North Carolina.
posted by kyrademon at 11:47 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Am I the only one who finds links to tweets to be useless? It's just "hey somebody said this thing" not a thing in itself.
posted by OHenryPacey

Am I the only one who finds comments to be useless? It's ju
posted by DynamiteToast at 11:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Hills just sent me an email with the subject line Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight.

SHE KNOWS ME SO WELL
posted by lydhre at 11:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

you probably should be devoting at least some of your time to the Senate

The idea that Maggie Hassan has a shot at the Senate is my primary motivation for going to NH, but at this stage canvassing for her and canvassing for Clinton are functionally equivalent.
posted by Coventry at 11:49 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Thank you, Frowner. I'm getting off the roof.

Maybe reading some Andrew Sullivan will help relax me. He's always rational and calm.
posted by guiseroom at 11:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I want to bore them to sleep, to make it much harder to spin up their outrage machine.

That machine is kept well-oiled enough to be spun up at the press of a Rush Limbaugh-shaped button regardless of whether there's any reason. The NRA has been reduced to saying, "Yeah, but Obama wants to ban guns!" after his presidency resulted in a slight expanstion of gun rights -- he signed laws that allow gun owners to carry guns in national parks and check guns in baggage on Amtrak (those changed laws signed by Reagan and Bush II, respectively), and none of his post-Sandy Hook executive actions changed any law or regulation.

And saying that still makes the NRA money.
posted by Etrigan at 11:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Hills just sent me an email with the subject line Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight.

I got that advice from a colleague yesterday. Today I had a meeting with him in his cube and he has a post-it up on his monitor that lists key states and their electoral votes. The struggle is real.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

Hills just sent me an email with the subject line Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight.

I got that too. I laughed out loud, and tossed her another $15.
posted by Roommate at 11:51 AM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Hills just sent me an email with the subject line Stop Refreshing FiveThirtyEight.

FOX NEWS ALERT: WHAT DOES CLINTON HAVE TO HIDE NOW?

#538gate
#pollghazi
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:52 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I hate talking on the phone and was shaking during my first call. I'll keep calling. I don't know what else to do.

Keep calling, you're doing fine. Throw away the script, they're written by poly sci types. Figure out what the key questions/exhortations are and bring them up in a way that's natural to you. I promise after twenty-odd calls it'll feel natural.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:52 AM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

> #538gate

Wouldn't it be 53g8?
posted by guiseroom at 11:53 AM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

Maybe reading some Andrew Sullivan will help relax me. He's always rational and calm.

I chuckled even before I clicked on the link. Poor guy.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 11:54 AM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Last night at the HRC event I went to one of the organizers said "there's two ways to run an election - scared or unopposed." Good words to keep in mind. I didn't see any complacency there, and we were in MANHATTAN.
posted by zutalors! at 11:54 AM on November 4, 2016 [30 favorites]

sallybrown: I hope she and Barack take off somewhere for 3 weeks with good food, good wine, Oprah-style cashmere sweatsuits

Oh my God this just made me envision Michelle and Barack having a TREAT YO SELF 2017 day and I couldn't be happier.
posted by chonus at 11:56 AM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Wouldn't it be 53g8?

53g8-gazi?
posted by Strange Interlude at 11:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Reply from @ppppolls to @suffolk89:
well you told us

I'm just loving the shade from @ppppolls lately. That plus good swing state news is awesome.

I'm posting from your past; I'm a couple hundred comments and who knows what fresh hell in the media behind. But I wanted to respond to some of the thoughts in the even deeper past about possible oppo drops on Trump.

The ones we've had so far have eroded some soft support, and definitely hurt him with women. But I think things like the Access Hollywood tape and the assault accusations actually help him with his base - he's tough, he makes his own rules, all women belong to us alpha males (excuse me while I delicately vomit off screen). I've seen a lot of people speculating that there has to be a Trump sex tape out there somewhere, maybe even with underage girls, or that there will be some tape of him dropping the N word, etc. I think those would do the same thing - erode a bit from the outside, but maybe not enough to make a difference, and it would probably strengthen his core white supremacist misogynist base.

I've been thinking about what kinds of things would actually hurt Trump with his asshole coalition. I think it would have to be something like a Melania sex tape - with another man, while she was married to Trump. If anything is going to hurt him with that group, it's going to have to hit him in the masculinity department, the Breitbart "cuck" zone so to speak.

I'm not saying in any way that such a tape exist; just indulging in morbid speculation as I phonebank* from the precipice of disaster.

*joined the MefitesUnited group today; hi!
posted by invincible summer at 11:58 AM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

> 53g8-gazi?

Now you're just being silly.
posted by guiseroom at 11:59 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

#NeverTrump GOP strategist Michael Shannon had a good collection of tweets last night, including this one: "Political consultants have gotten a bad rap – overall, they have been MORE PRINCIPLED than most politicians this year."

That's a legitimate point: CNN had to boot off its usual GOP pundits to replace them with Trump stalwarts; people like Mike Murphy, Steve Schmidt, etc. The chief political surrogates on the campaign trail are zombies like Gingrich and Giuliani. The strategists get paid to win elections, to look at the changing demographic foundations of the electorate, and tune the message. Yes, a lot of them got bulldozed by Trump and are sore about it, but that's given them room for a candour that is rare in election years.

Also: I think the last couple of weeks point to the subtext of that line about Kaine being ready to serve as president: Clinton has no illusions about the congressional GOP's impeachment fantasies. The Senate barrier is high, but these are not normal times.
posted by holgate at 12:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

"Stop refreshing metafilter too"
posted by Potomac Avenue at 12:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Trying to create a list of "Video of terrible things Trump could do that would make his rabid base let him go," is an exercise in futility. Either they'd decide it was ok/not bad, or that it was fake.
posted by emjaybee at 12:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

"Stop refreshing metafilter too"

Nevar!
*click*
posted by petebest at 12:02 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

"Stop refreshing metafilter too"

... said no one, ever.
posted by Dashy at 12:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Am I the only one who finds comments to be useless? It's ju

Don't worry, nobody reads the comments down here.
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:05 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

Just another plug to get involved in-person for the big GOTV push that will be happening for the next four days. It is NOT too late to get involved in the campaign, in fact this is the most important time of all. Some key things to know:

--The canvassing taking place right now is with voters who are highly likely to vote Democrat, to encourage them to actually do so. There is a very low likelihood that you will encounter Trump voters. And if you do? Your job is to thank them for their time and leave. Canvassing right now is not about persuasion, it's about turning out the base.

--Go to hillaryclinton.com/events and put in your zip code. Canvassing, phone-banking and other GOTV events will be listed there. Sign up on the site but you will likely not be contacted via email about it. If you do get contacted, it will be by phone and it will probably be an out-of-state number (most field operatives are from other locations around the country and they use their personal cell phones to call). So, answer your phone even for unrecognized and out-of-state numbers.

--But even if you don't get a call? Just show up. Believe me, no one is going to turn away your services because they didn't know you were coming.

--I will not lie, as an introvert this shit is hard. You knock a lot of doors that no one answers, a lot of people don't really want to talk to you that badly, even if they are supporters. It's important to remember that it's not personal. None of those people are going to remember who you are or what you even looked like by dinnertime that night. But every now and then you talk to someone where you realize that you just made a difference. It might not feel like it at the time because really no one is going to go from low propensity voter zero to YASSS QUEEN I WILL VOTE while they are talking to you, but you can see the wheels turning. Or people who just haven't had time to figure out where their polling place is or don't know some of the ins and outs of election law in your state and you can provide them with key information that takes them from "Idk I don't know where my polling place is and I bet they won't let me vote anyway if I don't have an ID, so why bother" to "Huh, I can just walk two blocks to go vote and I don't need to bring anything with me. I can do that."

Basically what I am saying is that you can do this. If I, Capt. Awkward Nerdy Introvert can do this, you can too. Wear your Fitbit, get your steps in, exhaust yourself so you can sleep through some of the anxiety. It helps.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

Don't worry, nobody reads the comments down here.

I certainly don't, that's for sure.
posted by Strange Interlude at 12:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

"Stop refreshing metafilter too"

Every day, I tell myself I am done--Done!--with these god-damned election threads. I guess I'll quit next Wednesday.

Next Wednesday evening.
posted by sandettie light vessel automatic at 12:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

I guess I'll quit next Wednesday. Next Wednesday evening.

smash cut to: DAY 47 OF TRUMP'S REFUSAL TO CONCEDE
posted by beerperson at 12:10 PM on November 4, 2016 [36 favorites]

Every day, I tell myself I am done--Done!--with these god-damned election threads. I guess I'll quit next Wednesday.

Next Wednesday evening.

Well if you're like me, you'll probably hit your favorite limit at about 1:30 AM Wednesday, so you'll have to come back on Thursday to favorite everything you missed. But after that, definitely.
posted by DynamiteToast at 12:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

"Stop refreshing metafilter too"

Ha! I have Metafilter+ - all I have to do is click on the friendly blue SHOW button instead of the mean and nasty refresh button that came with the browser.
posted by porpoise at 12:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

CNN said Hillary has fallen to 268 EV according to their poll/projection whatever. That has my wife and I very upset.

Keep calm at look at electoral-vote.com, which has Clinton at 317 without Nevada.

CNN's map has Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina as tossups, and Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and and Wisconsin as Lean Democratic.

Current margins from HuffPost Pollster (based on composite polls): Arizona (Trump +1.5), Colorado (Clinton +5.1), Florida (Clinton +2.6), Michigan (Clinton +7.5), Nevada (Clinton +2.5), New Hampshire (Clinton +3.4), North Carolina (Clinton +2.0), Pennsylvania (Clinton +5.5), Virginia (Clinton +6.8), and Wisconsin (Clinton +5.8).
Charts customized to start June 1, right around when Trump clinched the nomination.

Check out the trendlines there or on the New York Times latest polls page. Other than Nevada and New Hampshire, Clinton's leads have been stable for months.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

>> #538gate

>Wouldn't it be 53g8?
posted by guiseroom at 11:53 AM on November 4 [7 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]

Yes. And if it were made a senior official in the Catholic Church, it would be properly styled as 53 Cardinal g8.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

CNN is optimized to attract eyeballs, not to provide an accurate view of the world. Same as the contemporary 538.
posted by Coventry at 12:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

smash cut to: DAY 47 OF TRUMP'S REFUSAL TO CONCEDE

Let him throw his tantrum. With 400+ EV, the Electoral College is going to get out early after declaring it for Clinton / Kaine.
posted by mikelieman at 12:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

And if there were multiple such senior officials, they would be 53 Cardinals g8.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Let him throw his tantrum. With 400+ EV, the Electoral College is going to get out early after declaring it for Clinton / Kaine.

And we all know what that means...

BEACH PARTY!!!

[cue "Wipeout"]
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Great news everyone...!
posted by drezdn at 12:29 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

I attended legal poll monitoring training earlier this week, and it was really informative. Lots of takeaways from it, and I think some stand out as worth worth mentioning, especially if you're a poll worker.

First, pass this on: if someone tries to prevent you from voting or intimidates/challenges you and you feel you have the right to vote, call one of these hotlines (there's one each for English, Spanish, and Asian languages.) It's non-partisan and will walk you through the situation and your rights. Generally, don't let any member of the public try to stop you from voting. Report people to poll workers if they're out of line.

There are frequently issues with polling places not providing adequate materials for alternate languages. This is a huge problem. As a poll worker, overlook this and you might exclude entire communities of people from voting, and likely no one will know enough to call you out on it (and the groups that need this the most won't know enough English to ask you in many situations). Your training has likely skipped over this too.

Section 203 of the Voting Rights Act requires translated materials for language minorities that have suffered a history of exclusion/disenfranchisement in the voting process. It kicks in when either more than 5% of the citizens of voting age of your state or subdivision are members of a single language minority and are limited-English proficient, or more than 10,000 of the citizens of voting age are. Everything must be translated for these groups. Spanish is pretty common.

The requirements vary by county and state, but your polling place might have more stringent requirements. In California it's 3%. If any requirements kick in, you should receive the alternate language materials to be provided at the polling place. If it's a laminated translation of the ballot, it might be placed on a wall in a prominent part of the polling area. If it's a box of ballots, then place them as an option alongside the English ballots. etc.

Pretty simple! But commonly ignored completely. Just thought I'd pass this info on in case it helps. There are other things. Understand the voter ID laws in your state if there are any, for example. This is a common way that poll workers (often inadvertently) show discrimination against minority groups, for example by asking for IDs for foreign-sounding names but not for others. Make sure it's actually required, and make sure you ask everyone if it is.

If a voter's name isn't on the registration list, or if she doesn't have required identification, etc., she should always be given the opportunity to cast a provisional ballot. Many poll workers are untrained on this. In most cases, think about this before you let someone walk away. If they're at the wrong polling place, maybe they can head to the right one with no problem, or maybe they're unable to. They should be able to cast a provisional ballot in a worst case scenario.

Hope this helps!
posted by naju at 12:29 PM on November 4, 2016 [57 favorites]

And the Wikileaks "Spirit Cooking" tweet links to the website of Luke Rudkowski, right-libertarian 9/11 truther, climate change denier and New World Order conspiracy theorist. Such lovely allies.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 12:29 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Meanwhile, for your penultimate Campus Trump Table field report: I somehow do not think the several brown and female students who were engaged in intesnse conversation with the tablers were fervently discussing how they were all going to #MAGA together. And next to that scene was a lone student holding up a "TRUMP IS RACIST. BLACK LIVES MATTER" sign. I high-fived her as I ran past. The kids are alright. Well, most of them.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Atom Eyes: And we all know what that means...

BEACH PARTY!!!

[cue "Wipeout"]

... quickly followed by "Oh gods, the water is freezing! Back inside! Everybody, back inside! It's sweata weatha!"
posted by filthy light thief at 12:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Random thoughts, after discussing the election with a (liberal, like-minded) co-worker:

Haters gonna hate.

By which I mean people who are angry and want to hate someone else will find someone to hate. My co-worker mentioned reading about an angry white man who was upset that immigrants were coming into his town and changing things, but when someone looked at the statistics, the town was still predominantly white: 98% down to 97% over some period of time. That change represented around "immigrant" 20 families moving into the town.

So we were talking about why this small percentage change and few people changed the feeling of his town. One reason may be because low-income families who are more likely to rent apartments with little free or open space in or around their home are likely to use public parks for social gatherings that other people with larger homes and/or private yards might hold inside.

But if there weren't these visible "Others" to single out, angry people would find other targets. After all, if white people who both worship a Christian god can get so angry as to fight over the details of their religions (Irish Catholics vs Protestants*), angry people in a more homogeneous community will find a way to lash out at someone else.

* TIL The Troubles weren't sectarian, but was primarily political and nationalistic. " Unionists/loyalists, who are mostly Protestants and consider themselves British, generally want Northern Ireland to remain within the United Kingdom. Irish nationalists/republicans, who are mostly Catholics and consider themselves Irish, generally want it to leave the United Kingdom and join a united Ireland."
posted by filthy light thief at 12:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

(But there has been plenty of sectarian violence in the history of people, so people have always found a reason to hate and kill each-other, even when they appear to be very similar to an outside observer.)
posted by filthy light thief at 12:35 PM on November 4, 2016

I'm now listening to the Surfari's album.
posted by mikelieman at 12:37 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

The agency argues that the continued work stoppage "constitutes a clear and present danger to the health, safety and welfare of our riders and the citizens of Philadelphia and the region."

Wow. If their labor is SO VITAL, then I guess we should keep them happy and healthy and give them what they're asking for.
posted by mikelieman at 12:38 PM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

I just want to thank whoever it was that suggested about three of these megathreads ago that you click on the time stamp for the last comment you read to let you reload to that point. Were it not for that, I would have scrolled my hand to a nub by now.
posted by thebrokedown at 12:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

zachlipton: Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home.

Existential Dread: Trying to imagine a shave-headed, camo-and-shades wearing, gun-toting white dude trying to hand out liquor and marijuana 'in the ghetto' and failing

I'm imagining neo-Nazi skinheads getting busted by undercover feds on stings to catch buyers of pot. "It wasn't for me, it's for those people in the ghettos! They're the real threat here!"
posted by filthy light thief at 12:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

First, pass this on: if someone tries to prevent you from voting or intimidates/challenges you and you feel you have the right to vote, call one of these hotlines (there's one each for English, Spanish, and Asian languages.) It's non-partisan and will walk you through the situation and your rights.

Added to the wiki. Feel free to refine.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

From Kirkarcha's link to politico above:
Tim Kaine is vanilla, but he’s the textured, whole-bean Breyer’s kind.

Mmm. Ice cream will calm my nerves. Yes, ice cream.
posted by samthemander at 12:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Just got a robocall from a Terry MacAuliff encouraging me to vote no on 1 (the right to work constitutional amendment here in VA) which was a drag; I can't gloat to a recording that I already did.
posted by phearlez at 12:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

New York Times: The Voter Suppression Trail (via)
posted by tonycpsu at 12:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm imagining neo-Nazi skinheads getting busted by undercover feds on stings to catch buyers of pot. "It wasn't for me, it's for those people in the ghettos! They're the real threat here!"

FEDS: Hmm good point
posted by theodolite at 12:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Does anyone else hear "Spirit Cooking" and think "ooh yes I'd love to go hiking with my Trangia this weekend"?
posted by acidic at 12:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Krauthammer buries the lede, here, but he comes out for Clinton over Trump:

"As final evidence of how bad are our choices in 2016, Trump’s liabilities, especially on foreign policy, outweigh hers."
posted by gurple at 12:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

From Steve Schale of FL on twitter (thanks to chris24):

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL
Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

If we trust in the data that 28% of GOP FL voters flipped (and I know some don't think that's accurate), what do we think of the NPA voters? Maybe Murphy has a fighting chance after all.
posted by sallybrown at 12:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

This week I learned that there are a lot of people in the world who think they would be in the streets fighting against a Trump administration, but when it comes to Standing Rock the most they're able to do is "check in" on Facebook.
posted by one_bean at 12:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Tim Kaine is vanilla, but he’s the textured, whole-bean Breyer’s kind.

Mmm. Ice cream will calm my nerves. Yes, ice cream.

I'm bristling at the characterization of Breyer's as "good" ice cream. Try McConnell's or Jeni's and get back to me, Politico writers.

Rumble mumble grumble nothing that comes in a half-gallon is "good" ice cream except maybe Tillamook but definitely not Breyer's.
posted by stolyarova at 12:48 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

I stay calm by only checking electoral-vote.com, which currently has T at 221 and Hillary at 317

Just don't look at the Senate.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:49 PM on November 4, 2016

Ye gods. I just got to the bottom of the LAST thread. Before I bob back to the top ...

Some mfer posted a six foot Trump Pence sign on his private property lawn at the corner next to our walking neighborhood grade school. Across the street from the guy usually flying huge Second Confederate Navy Jack, 1863–1865 flags (Dixie flag). There is not much keeping me from tagging his sign template style "#MakeAmericaRacistAgain" than the fact that I'm sure Florida will go and stay blue. And some remaining civility .Tempted to get a pic of my kids pointing and laughing at the sign but you know, don't want them shot, either.
posted by tilde at 12:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

mikelieman: Let him throw his tantrum. With 400+ EV, the Electoral College is going to get out early after declaring it for Clinton / Kaine.

What planet of ice cream and sunshine are you getting 400+ EV from? Or what are you smoking and did you bring enough for everyone for the next four years?
posted by chonus at 12:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Great news everyone...!

It's great news and news that has me spitting mad at the same time. Thanks for dragging the country through your refusal to stand up to the wingnuts, who ended up ending your political career anyhow. Dickhead.
posted by Rykey at 12:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Just don't look at the Senate.

This is good advice in any context.
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

New PPP:

Colorado:
4-way: Clinton beating Trump 48-43
2-way: Clinton beating Trump 50-45

Michigan:
4-way: Clinton beating Trump 46-41
2-way: Clinton beating Trump 50-44

Virginia:
4-way: Clinton beating Trump 48-43
2-way: Clinton beating Trump 51-45

(reminder that earlier today PPP gave us:
NH: Clinton 48-43
NV: Clinton 48-45
WI: Clinton 48-41
PA: Clinton 48-44
NC: Clinton 49-47)
posted by sallybrown at 12:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

gurple: Krauthammer buries the lede, here, but he comes out for Clinton over Trump

Kraut hammer: bash the neo-Nazi.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

23 great pieces of pop culture that almost make up for this dismal election
posted by kirkaracha at 12:53 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I just want to thank whoever it was that suggested about three of these megathreads ago that you click on the time stamp for the last comment you read to let you reload to that point.

that's a BBO
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 12:54 PM on November 4, 2016

Even if you shave a little off for bias in PPP, things are looking good.
posted by drezdn at 12:54 PM on November 4, 2016

NB for my analysis above.

guacamole : Superplin :: ice cream : stolyarova
posted by stolyarova at 12:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

What planet of ice cream and sunshine are you getting 400+ EV from? Or what are you smoking and did you bring enough for everyone for the next four years?

A) I'm pulling it out of my ass, but if you're going to dream, Dream Big. And hey, it's not IMPOSSIBLE.

B) I'm in New York so "No Comment", but also "No worries, Mon!"
posted by mikelieman at 12:55 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

nothing that comes in a half-gallon is "good" ice cream except maybe Tillamook but definitely not Breyer's

Does anything even come in a half-gallon anymore, besides Kirkland (which comes in two half-gallons and is actually really good)?
posted by Turd Ferguson at 12:58 PM on November 4, 2016

Tim Kaine is vanilla, but he’s the textured, whole-bean Breyer’s kind.

Tim will have a custom Ben & Jerry's flavor inside of two years. It'll be called "Vanilla."
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [37 favorites]

What planet of ice cream and sunshine are you getting 400+ EV from?

Don't you want to believe? Join The 400+ EV Club on Metafilter. Texas is going to turn as blue as this here page.
posted by sallybrown at 12:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

ZOMFG, thanks to stolyarova's link, I now know that I can get Jeni's ice cream at THREE DIFFERENT PLACES HERE IN TOWN. HOW DID I NOT KNOW THIS BEFORE?
posted by mon-ma-tron at 1:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Edy's, Grand's and Breyer's come in half-gallons still, as does Tillamook (which is, as previously mentioned, quite good). I'd forgotten Kirkland, and of course that's tasty. Costco's house brand items are generally excellent. Jim Senegal is what a billionaire ought to be like, so Trump hates him. Just makes me like Costco better.
posted by stolyarova at 1:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jeni's is pricey but worth it for special occasions (like Election Night, when we will also be having Election Cake!).
posted by stolyarova at 1:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

The Daily Show - Behind the Scenes at Trump Headquarters - Meet the Speechwriter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:05 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm listening to Bill Clinton speak in Denver, I have my ballot all researched to be filled out and dropped off tomorrow, and I've been reading stories being posted to one of those private Hillary Facebook groups.

I've been depressed and worried but at least today things are looking up. Let's get this done.
posted by rewil at 1:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Blue Bell is available in half gallons and the Homemade (brand) Vanilla is still listerically good.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 1:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a complete blow out, with women across the country quietly voting Hillary while smiling and politely ignoring their Trump spouting husbands?

"That's so weird honey. I bet you're right, it was all a conspiracy."
posted by msalt at 1:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

Bill Clinton ‘Felt So Bad’ For Melania Trump Arguing Against Cyberbullying

"I never felt so bad for anybody in my life as I did for his wife going out giving a speech saying ‘Oh, cyber bullying was a terrible thing,’” Clinton said a rally in Pueblo, Colorado.

“I thought, ‘Yeah, especially if it's done at three in the morning against the former Miss Universe by a guy running for president!’” Clinton continued. “None of this is real. You couldn't make it up. The problem is we're laughing but it isn't funny because people's lives are going to be changed by this.”

Obama Struggles To Quiet Rally-Goers After Protestor Interrupts (VIDEO). It's kind of a giant mess, but Obama handles it really well once he finally gets people to pay attention to the President in the room. He literally goes, "everybody sit down and be quiet for a second." Watch the video.

"This is what I mean about folks not being focused," Obama said. "Hold up. Hold up. First of all, we live in a country that respects free speech. Second of all, it looks like maybe he might have served in our military and we have to respect that. Third of all, he was elderly and we have had to respect our elders. And fourth of all, don't boo, vote!"

posted by zachlipton at 1:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [71 favorites]

So Felix Biederman and Virgil Texas, the people behind Carl Diggler, put up an annotated version of McMuffin's article in Foreign Policy outlining his Syria policy. The first paragraph is great:

On my first day in the Syrian capital of Damascus as a young intelligence officer, I struck up a conversation with a spice vendor in a local marketplace. [Virgil Texas: This is the deep state version of Tom Friedman getting his information from Indonesian cab drivers.] With my broken Arabic, I made small talk until I felt comfortable enough to ask him what he thought of Bashar al-Assad, who had recently inherited power from his father. The man seemed nervous and didn’t answer. I thought perhaps he didn’t understand my poor Arabic, so I asked again. [Felix Biederman: Maybe because an obvious foreign intelligence officer who wears special underwear and has a fucking light bulb for a head was talking to him in broken Arabic.] This time, the fear in his eyes was unmistakable. Without saying a word, he bolted into the back of his shop. [Felix Biederman: If we had to invade a country every single time Evan McMullin made someone visibly uncomfortable during a conversation, we would destroy the earth 10 times over.]

And another choice bit:

By Western standards, however, the Syrian air force is relatively small and outdated. Russian aircraft are more advanced, but they are also few in number. [Virgil Texas: Even Hillary was canny enough to dodge the question “would you shoot down Russian aircraft to enforce a no-fly zone?” at the 3rd debate. President Turgidson here is openly bragging that he will and getting erect at the thought.]

Read the whole thing, it's magnificent.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 1:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

Publix house brand, as well, if you're in their geographic area. Their all-the-time stuff is just good, but their limited-time flavors are sometimes excellent.
posted by penduluum at 1:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

This was forever ago in this thread at this point, but people were commenting how polling becomes crap as we get close to election day. I just wanted to throw in my personal experience here, because I can completely see how that would be true.

I live in NC. In August I was polled via my cell phone 3 times, but I haven't answered a call from an unknown number since then. At first I was excited about the prospect of being polled, but now I get so many calls every damn day from people concerned about my car's warranty, my home's security system, my credit score, my student loans, and on and on. I couldn't handle how many calls I was getting, and someone told me that just answering (even if you say "remove me from your list") lets the people flag you as an active line and you'll get more calls. I have no earthly idea if that's correct, but I can tell you this: at the middle of the summer I got few enough calls from unknowns that I was always answering. By September I couldn't handle it anymore and I don't answer any unknown.

If I was called by pollsters 3 times in August, would I have gotten called more times in September and October? Who knows. But this datapoint has fallen off their grid, and who knows how many more people are doing the same?
posted by jermsplan at 1:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Talenti sea salt caramel gelato comes in half gallons and should probably have a warning label it's so damn good.
posted by cmfletcher at 1:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

To add to quonsar's excellent comment:

We noticed. We noticed Anita Hill. We noticed all the restrictions being placed on abortion and all the clinics being shut down. We noticed transvaginal probes. We noticed all the fetal rights bills, the war on contraception and the repeated attempts to smear and defund Planned Parenthood. We noticed the bile spewed at Sandra Fluke. We noticed "legitimate rapes." We noticed who blocks the gender pay gap. We noticed the permissiveness that allows domestic violence perpetrators to keep their guns.
posted by madamjujujive at 1:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [79 favorites]

ok listening to the latest fivethirtyeight podcast, Nate Silver really has sort of lost it.
posted by zutalors! at 1:16 PM on November 4, 2016

Brett Baier: That just wasn't inartful, it was a mistake, and for that I'm sorry.

That's cool Brett, we all make "mistakes." Most of them don't flip the Senate though...
posted by diogenes at 1:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

It's kind of a giant mess, but Obama handles it really well once he finally gets people to pay attention to the President in the room.

Am I the only one who was hoping he'd **WHISTLE** to get everyone to shut up?

Or did I spend too many years at sleep away camp?
posted by mikelieman at 1:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Some things that are scaring me:

- This tweet
- The front page of the Boston Globe, which stated that Hillz and the turnip are "neck and neck".

I already voted and I'm doing volunteer work. I want to believe she has this in the bag. I can't be complacent. This is terrifying.
posted by pxe2000 at 1:19 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Some days I feel like Barack and Michelle Obama are the only adults in the country.
posted by zachlipton at 1:20 PM on November 4, 2016 [42 favorites]

This tweet

Umm, not sure if you're serious.
posted by drezdn at 1:20 PM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

ok listening to the latest fivethirtyeight podcast, Nate Silver really has sort of lost it.

Listened to Slate's Political Gabfest podcast on the way into work today. One of the hosts comes on and says that he's had to stop following politics for the past few days because he's got no energy for it any more. A host of a political podcast.

This dumpster fire be breakin' brains with extreme prejudice.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:20 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

pxe2000, that picture in that tweet is of Obama in Denver, not Trump in Ohio.
posted by stolyarova at 1:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

He's probably sitting on the plane kicking himself for not telling the crowd to stop being insubordinate and churlish.
posted by cmfletcher at 1:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

pxe2000, I'm pretty sure the picture in that tweet is from Obama's acceptance speech for the nomination.
posted by penduluum at 1:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Some things that are scaring me:

- This tweet

Look very carefully at that photo.
posted by Sys Rq at 1:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

I couldn't see the stage. This is the level of panic I was at when I saw that. Sorry folks, nothing to see here.

The Boston Globe, though. I know it's a Suffolk poll, but I'm afraid the electorate is going to stay home based on those polls.
posted by pxe2000 at 1:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

OMG that guardian link, chris24! It's an abecedarium, after the style of Edward Gorey, whom i love.

Guardian
posted by annsunny at 1:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

This Y Combinator-Backed Company Has a Secret Weapon to Sway the Election

My Journey to the Center of the Alt-Right
posted by the man of twists and turns at 1:23 PM on November 4, 2016

The front page of the Boston Globe, which stated that Hillz and the turnip are 'neck and neck'.

God damn it people, stop freaking out about individual polls and horse-race coverage.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:24 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

pxe2000, that tweet was fake, but get a load of this one...downright terrifying!
posted by acidic at 1:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Frankly, I'm terrified by this issue, now. Salads with scissors make me shiver.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Twitter: Virginia update: early voting turnout is up by 31% in Northern Virginia, & up 0.02% in the rest of the state. (links to this chart)
posted by sallybrown at 1:26 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

I'm afraid the electorate is going to stay home based on those polls.

What helps people get out and vote: Volunteering to get out the vote.
What doesn't help people get out and vote: Freaking out about polls on the internet.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:26 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

get a load of this one...downright terrifying!

I had no idea there was such overlap between Cubs fans and Trump followers.
posted by pxe2000 at 1:26 PM on November 4, 2016

(note: this is Trump's current view [real]. actually quite reassuring if you're into that sort of thing.)
posted by acidic at 1:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I couldn't see the stage.

Could you see the giant pictures of Obama on either side of it?

Your mission this week is to gorge on as much discount Halloween candy as you can. Why you slacking?
posted by Sys Rq at 1:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Twitter: Virginia update: early voting turnout is up by 31% in Northern Virginia, & up 0.02% in the rest of the state.

Northern Virginia is Democrat Virginia, right?
posted by drezdn at 1:28 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I increasingly think that, barring some exciting oppo droppo this afternoon, we should all unplug this weekend and focus on GOTV or some non-election related activity. Start your detox/comedown from these threads and political news early!
posted by yasaman at 1:29 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

On November 9th.
The sun will rise, breaking out between clouds.
With all the dismal days behind us, with the doubt dispersed the news media will all go out of business because no one will care to hear anything more once they have heard the words: Madame President.
Angels will laugh.
Nightingales will twitter.
The stink spirit will slouch away, back into the polluted river from which it came.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Northern Virginia is Democrat Virginia, right?

much more so, yes.
posted by zutalors! at 1:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

New Clinton ad (twitter) on the Trump beauty pageant dressing-room bust-ins. (Does anyone recognize what this music is from? It reminds me of one of the true-crime docuseries from the past couple years...)
posted by sallybrown at 1:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

It's an abecedarium

TIL abecedarium.
posted by chris24 at 1:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

The stink spirit will slouch away, back into the polluted river from which it came.

i'm not confident we can put this turd back in the butthole
posted by stolyarova at 1:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

God damn it people, stop freaking out about individual polls and horse-race coverage.

Be tolerant, some of us can't help it. I am the go-to person of sanity and wisdom calming down many of my friends, but my stomach is constantly roiling, I wake up several times every night and I think I am about as stressed as I have ever felt in my life. My mind knows these rational things but my body is betraying me.

Plus, I am a believer in the power of positive worry. Did you ever notice that it is not usually the things that you worry about that turn horrific? Nope, it is the things you didn't worry about at all. Those things sneak up on you and smack you upside the head. So a little judicious worry is just your little protective mojo bag, your little sacrifice to the gods.
posted by madamjujujive at 1:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

Northern Virginia is Democrat Virginia, right?

Democrat and sane federal employee Republican.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Wow, this is escalating quickly. Someone just asked me to come up with a plan with a budget of a few thousand dollars for online marketing of GOTV efforts in NH through Tuesday.
posted by Coventry at 1:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

This has been a shit year for all the world collectively. Shit thing after shit thing keeps happening. While I have never doubted since the DNC that Clinton is going to win (and I'm so excited about that when I let myself be that I'm often a whirlwind of spitting and cursing so as not to tempt the you-know-what from you-know-where), I lapse into despair about how the Republicans have abandoned the practices of democratic governance as a principal. Reading about blocking Supreme Court Justices and Impeachment and Contesting Results has just deposited me in the pit of ultimate despair.

So the other day, I asked my Facebook friends to share photos of their pets with me. You guys, over 200 people shared photos of dogs, cats, rabbits, birds, snakes, lizards, spouses and children. I responded to almost every photo with "Who is the good kitty/doggie/husband? Who gets deserves a treat? Yes! You do!"

It did wonders for my psyche and prepared me for the next few days. I actively encourage any of you who are really freaking out to do something similar. I was both thrilled at how many pictures I got to doggie talk too but was also thrilled at how many of my friends from all periods in my life were so eager to share their pictures of their critters - people I didn't even know had pets even.

Its been a shit year. Its going to get shittier even when Clinton wins. We're no good to anyone else if we let the shit overwhelm us. Take care of yourselves and then take care of winning this thing.
posted by Joey Michaels at 1:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

New Clinton ad (twitter) on the Trump beauty pageant dressing-room bust-ins.

A made-for-TV 30-second ad, at that. I wonder if they have a sense of something that's going to break at oppo droppo' clock.
posted by holgate at 1:36 PM on November 4, 2016

pls droppo the oppo soon, Thing High Atop The Whatever

i'm almost out of ice cream
posted by stolyarova at 1:37 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

#NotAllSouthernVirginians
posted by DanSachs at 1:38 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Hey, it's oppo droppo' clock somewhere
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Rick Wilson and the rest of these people hyping massive oppo drops (that will allegedly *destroy* Trump and/or Clinton) remind me of MetroMan, who amassed a large following during the Rob Ford Saga by constantly tweeting stuff (supposedly based on insider knowledge and contacts he had) about how Ford was five minutes away from being hauled out of his house or city hall in handcuffs, or that ANOTHER HUGE STORY was about to break. Very few of his many breathless prognostications actually came to pass, and when they didn't he would mumble about how corrupt cops must have suppressed the evidence or something.
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Oh lord, three phone calls from the Republican party in the last 20 minutes telling me to vote. I guess I'd better since they asked, though they just might be a wee bit disappointed with the results. But first I gotta unplug the damn phone.
posted by gusottertrout at 1:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

What time is oppo droppo' clock. 5:00 EST?
posted by diogenes at 1:43 PM on November 4, 2016

A made-for-TV 30-second ad, at that. I wonder if they have a sense of something that's going to break at oppo droppo' clock.

And a new (I think?) 60-second (twitter) also focused on his treatment of women.

Who knows if it's oppo or Clinton just harnessing the power of the women's vote as much as possible. (But I want it to be oppo so badly!!!)
posted by sallybrown at 1:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

What time is oppo droppo' clock. 5:00 EST?

If you're me, it's usually between 8 or 830 am, after my second cup of coffee.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:44 PM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

We're still in EDT
posted by mikelieman at 1:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

three phone calls from the Republican party in the last 20 minutes telling me to vote

This is the exact opposite of effective GOTV, by the way. You aren't supposed to encourage everyone to vote, just the people you know for a fact are going to vote for your candidate. That's why the GOTV door-knocking decision tree ends abruptly if you reach a Trump supporter.

On top of living in a smoking husk of my former country, I'm going to be mightily pissed off if this rank political incompetence actually results in a win.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

On November 9th.
The sun will rise, breaking out between clouds. [fake]
posted by beerperson at 1:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

God damn it people, stop freaking out about individual polls and horse-race coverage.

God damn it people, stop attacking fellow human beings who are anxious and panicked and exhausted and scared, who come here to share their current state of mind because maybe they have nowhere else to do it, and don't expect to be smacked down for worrying about this SHITSHOW of a nightmare election in a place they hope they will at least be fucking tolerated and understood. Nobody's asking to be coddled, but Jesus H Motherfucking Christ don't jump down the throats of people who are legitimately afraid and may be at a breaking point. It's an intolerable, *physical* feeling and we often have no relief except to risk sharing our fears with the politically like-minded around us. Jesus. Have some compassion.
posted by chonus at 1:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [34 favorites]

We're still in EDT

Did you know that 46% of the US population is in the Eastern timezone? It's not really important to the conversation, but it's interesting!
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

SO, maybe the Clinton campaign isn't doing the big oppo-droppo because they don't need to. They seem pretty confident of winning just by using their enormous, well organized voter-contact operation and relentless series of TV ads.

And really, with all the talk from Trump and the GOP of intentional and endless obstruction if Clinton wins, if there's a videotape out there of Trump fucking an owl or something, it might be better to use after the election of Madame President.
posted by Cookiebastard at 1:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

It's okay, Obama just called too and personally asked me to go vote, so clearly I'm a bigger wig than I ever imagined. THE FATE OF THE NATION MIGHT REST IN MY HANDS! No pressure or anything...
posted by gusottertrout at 1:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Whenever I get an email "from" Barack or Michelle with my name in the subject line, I always keep it in my inbox for a few days before deleting it, just to look at it and pretend that they're my close personal friends.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [31 favorites]

i'm not confident we can put this turd back in the butthole

I'm stealing that. A lot.
posted by whuppy at 1:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

sallybrown: Join The 400+ EV Club on Metafilter. Texas is going to turn as blue as this here page.

Oh no, this page is white! THIS PAGE IS WHITE! I'M GOING BLIND!

Oh, nevermind ... it's set to professional bland at work. Carry on!
posted by filthy light thief at 1:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Whenever I get an email "from" Barack or Michelle with my name in the subject line, I always keep it in my inbox for a few days before deleting it, just to look at it and pretend that they're my close personal friends.

Wait, you delete your emails?
posted by Surely This at 1:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Exclusive: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 1:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

Turds back in buttholes? Modern science is wonderful.
posted by Devonian at 1:55 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

DNC tells Mother Jones it has evidence its HQ was bugged.

The second sweep, according to the Democratic officials, found a radio signal near the chairman's office that indicated there might be a listening device outside the office. "We were told that this was something that could pick up calls from cell phones," a DNC official says. "The guys who did the sweep said it was a strong indication." No device was recovered.

The DNC sent a report with the technical details to the FBI, according to the DNC officials. "We believe it's been given by the bureau to another agency with three letters to examine," the DNC official says. "We're not supposed to talk about it."

A Democratic consultant who has done work for the DNC, who asked not to be identified, says he was recently informed about the suspected bugging.

The DNC officials will not say what countermeasures were subsequently taken. "As a general policy, we don't talk about such efforts," the other DNC official says. But this official adds, "You have to take all of this incredibly seriously." The first DNC official notes, "We are the oldest political party in this country, and we are under constant attack from Russia and/or maybe others."

posted by sallybrown at 1:56 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

Wow, Trump really is running as Nixon 2.0.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

Exclusive: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged

Voter Suppression, Appeals to White Nationalism, Bugging Offices...

It's like an RNC Greatest Hits Album
posted by leotrotsky at 1:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

So Felix Biederman and Virgil Texas, the people behind Carl Diggler, put up an annotated version of McMuffin's article in Foreign Policy outlining his Syria policy.
_{- [expletive deleted]}

oh my god reading this was the highlight of my day
posted by indubitable at 1:58 PM on November 4, 2016

if there's a videotape out there of Trump fucking an owl or something

This clip will become the ad bump on Trump TV
posted by beerperson at 1:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

it's oppo droppo' clock here and now! hooray!
posted by stolyarova at 1:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Senate Republicans have made it plainly clear that it's essential to get rid of their majority for at least two years so at a minimum some executive appointments can get done. If they keep their majority, the path for Clinton to get a second term looks dim, since it has been made abundantly clear that the GOP will never pay even the smallest price for throwing constant temper tantrums that cripple the government.

Also, I don't know if the world can withstand any more time with Jim Inhofe as the Senate Environment Committee Chair.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 1:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

You guys! I decided to see what would happen if I replied yes to the latest text I got from HFA asking for help this weekend.

So it turns out I'm volunteering at the northside Richmond office on Sunday afternoon and Monday evening. Wooo!
posted by emelenjr at 1:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [43 favorites]

Exclusive: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged

The FBI initially did not respond to a request for comment. Contacted later, they said, "Yeah, we know. Who do you think bugged the place?"
fake but probably really true
posted by kirkaracha (staff) at 2:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Evan Bayh is really screwing the pooch on his re-election. Fucking hell man, how do you blow a 20+ point lead?
posted by leotrotsky at 2:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

COME ON GOTV! EVERYBODY TO THE LIMIT! EVERYBODY GOTV!

(targeted GenX solicitation)
posted by soren_lorensen at 2:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

if there's a videotape out there of Trump fucking an owl or something

This is kind of funny because I realized what the music from Clinton's new beauty pageant ad reminded me of, and it was the theme music to The Staircase, the documentary about Michael Peterson's murder trial (which involves quite the theory related to owls).

Here's a youtube of the theme music to compare to the ad - warning: there are some graphic images in there involving blood.

So basically the tone and feel of the new Clinton ad about Trump is similar to that of a series about a man who murdered his wife.
posted by sallybrown at 2:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Why are what read like massive scandals dropping as exclusives on Mother Jones? I know they do some quality journalism, but it's not exactly the place for perceived balanced reporting, is it?

If it holds water and is the level of scandal that it purports to be, I'd really hope their choice of outlet doesn't sink the story.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:04 PM on November 4, 2016

Brian Stelter of CNN (twitter): Trump scoop coming up on @CNNSitRoom in 2 minutes...
posted by sallybrown at 2:07 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Okay, I think it's been long enough . . .

HAHA Romney! Loooooooseeeeeeerr!! OMG You Romney people around me suck at being decent! What a crap candidate you rallied around! Jesus why not elect Queen Elizabeth's sock ffs! Hahahahahaaa!! In 2012 47% fscks you!

Romneeeyy Loooooserrrrr! Romney Loooooserrrr! And what is up with naming the kids "Blort" and "Glurf" etc? And who tf would Pick Joe Grannystarver for Veep!? Bwahahahaaaaa! You Suck you business-destroying goon! Good riddance! I hope we never have to see your stupid privileged white mug again except when you desperately try to talk the GOP out of nominating someone even worse than you!

O-ba-ma! O-ba-ma! WhooooooOOOOO!! Hellz to the yeah baby!

*whew*. Okay thanks, I'd been afraid to jinx it. *snif*. Sorry - carry on.
posted by petebest at 2:07 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

sallybrown, I fell for that too. He's airing an ad on The Voice. That's literally it.
posted by acidic at 2:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Brian Stelter of CNN (twitter): Trump scoop coming up on @CNNSitRoom in 2 minutes...

Nope, not falling for it, especially from a guy who may or may not have been the lead singer and guitarist of the Stray Cats.
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:10 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

Twitter from Georgia local news: The Secretary of State's office says Georgia has shattered its early voting record, with nearly 2.2 million Georgians voting so far.
posted by sallybrown at 2:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

I was watching this for another reason, but I feel like it would be a good song for Hillary next week.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 2:12 PM on November 4, 2016

Just got a robocall from a Terry MacAuliff encouraging me to vote no on 1 (the right to work constitutional amendment here in VA) which was a drag; I can't gloat to a recording that I already did.

I'm learning a lot in these election threads, like even people with similar political leanings interact with robocalls in different ways. If you call me and I pick up, I'm talking to you if I want even if you can't respond, especially if I get to gloat.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 2:13 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Brian Stelter of CNN (twitter):

Of the Brian Stelter Orchestra?
posted by beerperson at 2:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around why someone thinks being in a secret [Hillary] facebook group is somehow safe in regards to anonymity. Are they using sockpuppet accounts? Serious question.

It's not necessarily IRL harassment people are worried about as much as being yelled out and shouted down on Facebook itself. This spring, there were a lot of horribly nasty attacks on anyone supporting Hillary, and most of it came from Sanders supporters, not Trumpeters. In fact, there was a lot here on Metafilter.

Remember when the Sanders crowd was celebrating the 20-year-old in Alaska who was harassing the 50-something union lady who was a superdelegate, on Facebook? Bad times.

I've admitted a number of Mefites into sekrit Hiillary groups on Facebook and am happy to do so now for anyone, except ugly.
posted by msalt at 2:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

@CNNSitRoom: Breaking: Trump Campaign Advertising on Television in Swing States.

Fuck you, CNN.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 2:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Is the CNN scoop this bit that Trump is buying a 2-minute ad? Brian, you oversold.
posted by zachlipton at 2:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Of the Brian Stelter Orchestra?

I miss Real seltzer.
posted by mikelieman at 2:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

After 8 years of a president, voters are almost always ready for the next president to be from the other party. It's amazing that Hillary is doing this well, really.

This time next week, the people who own the GOP will be thinking, "Damn, if only we'd gone with Jeb!" They would likely have won the Presidency, kept the Senate, and, by extension, gained control of the Supreme Court for the next generation.
posted by teirnon at 2:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a complete blow out, with women across the country quietly voting Hillary while smiling and politely ignoring their Trump spouting husbands?

ugh i keep remembering how domestic violence rises after big sporting events bc men are furious that their team lost
posted by poffin boffin at 2:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

"Damn, if only we'd gone with Jeb!"

Maybe the takeaway should be "if only we had better candidates to choose from!"
posted by tofu_crouton at 2:18 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Herman Cain, where are you?!?

/pumpkinpatch
posted by petebest at 2:19 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Not gonna lie, MeFites. I am legit sitting in a Labor & Delivery room at my hospital awaiting birth, and having gotten the epidural (highly recommended, btw; pain went from THIS ELECTION AHHH!!! to extremely manageable in about 20 minutes), figured ... "welp, might as well check the election thread, prob won't have time later." I am well and truly hooked.

One of the painful things about this election cycle was that being pregnant, I couldn't even take the edge off my anxiety with a nice glass of whisky. That, my friends, has been rough. It also seemed like my daughter was planning on waiting until after Nov 8 to make an appearance, and I've been joking that she wanted to wait to make sure we don't elect Cheeto Hitler (having heard that he doesn't welcome POC newcomers to this country). She's gonna be a smart cookie. Today, however, she decided she's ready to join us ... which I'm taking as a sign that she feels good about the outcome of this election.

I'm thrilled to be having my first kid, a daughter, during the time of our first female president, and that's where I'm gonna leave my anxiety and my worries, and step away from the news and thread for awhile. Hillary 2016! Thanks for being there, MetaFilter. See y'all on the other side.
posted by alleycat01 at 2:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [283 favorites]

I think the takeaway has already been , "Oops, we aren't the people who own the GOP anymore!"
posted by rikschell at 2:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

alleycat that's wonderful. congratulations!
posted by Bacon Bit at 2:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Come on Marla Maples, time to drop those tax returns!!

/pumpkinpatch
posted by sallybrown at 2:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Maybe the takeaway should be "if only we had better candidates to choose from!"

How about "if only we were a better party?"

Exclusive: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged

Okay, see this shit is what pisses me off so much about people spreading whatever falls out of Wikileaks and their hacking. Right now, nobody would question that bugging the DNC is not fucking okay. But that's because nothing has come of it except for the abstract suggestion that it happened.

The "let's share Wikileaks 'cause it's out there" crowd would immediately drop that anti-bugging position the second anything even remotely interesting or amusing came out of it. Bugging is bad until we find out Steve got pissed off at George because he made a mess loading the toner cartridge into the office printer, and then it's all "Tension at the DNC" for days and "Well, it's out there, so why don't we talk about it?"

And yes, for the record: it's not fucking okay if it happens to the RNC, either.

We're still not talking about the Pentagon Papers, folks. This isn't whistleblowing. We're talking about petty bullshit.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Not gonna lie, MeFites. I am legit sitting in a Labor & Delivery room

...so that's gotta be a first, right?
posted by tonycpsu at 2:24 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

ICYMI: sallybrown's link from above: What It Took. The whole goddamn thing made me tear up and I'm even listening to happy music. That last line "They said Clinton. She saw, underneath it all, Rodham." damn near broke me.
posted by numaner at 2:24 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'm now listening to the Surfari's album.

Stick it to Cheeto Perdito's Deplorables and listen to Meshuggah Beach Party, y'all.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:25 PM on November 4, 2016

Go alleycat01 go!!! There are women voting right now who were alive before the 19th Amendment passed, and someday your daughter will say "I was born the weekend before the U.S. elected its first female President." And they will have overlapped on this planet!
posted by sallybrown at 2:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [48 favorites]

Alleycat, so exciting! The first Metafilter Election Thread Baby!
Congratulations, and early welcome to the Alleykitten.
posted by Superplin at 2:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [36 favorites]

"Damn, if only we'd gone with Jeb!"

It's entirely possible that Hillary has had the demographics and the support and the lowkey enthusiasm all along and that, alternate-history doomsday scenarios we're all so weirdly fond of aside, she would have beaten any of the sad sack chuckleheads the GOP rounded up this cycle.
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

You can do it alleycat! Bring another voter into the world!
posted by tofu_crouton at 2:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Talez, I summoned your voice of reason this afternoon as I contemplated a lone man standing with a display of Trump/Pence campaign signs at the main intersection in my neighborhood at rush hour. No chance that he'll my blue Metrowest 'burb red--and better here than New Hampshire.

I'm flattered at being thought of as a voice of reason but for posterity's sake I do want to point out my post-facto rationalization was after I flipped the Trumpkin the bird driving past as he looked at me and gave me that white guy nod that they give each other to imply you're both down with something. I'm the last person who's example you want to follow.
posted by Talez at 2:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls

A federal judge has ordered local elections boards in North Carolina to restore voters to the rolls after they were purged too close to Election Day.

U.S. District Judge Loretta Biggs issued the ruling Friday after an emergency hearing earlier in the week on NAACP allegations that at least three counties purged voter rolls through a process disproportionately targeting blacks.

posted by sallybrown at 2:28 PM on November 4, 2016 [58 favorites]

Yep, someone is finally cracking down on the NY FBI.

Twitter: Wolf Blitzer interrogating Rudy Giuliani, who is saying he never said he got inside information from FBI. “If I did say that I” misspoke.
posted by sallybrown at 2:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

Twitter: Virginia update: early voting turnout is up by 31% in Northern Virginia, & up 0.02% in the rest of the state.

That may be because Virginia does not have early voting — it has somewhat permissive absentee voting requirements and you can cast an absentee ballot in person. NoVa has probably seen an increase because most of NoVa is suburbs and bedroom communities of people who commute elsewhere in the DC area for work, which would fall under "Business outside County/City of residence on Election Day". I guess you could also work this somewhat in Hampton Roads, but I've seen almost nothing in the way of Democratic organization around here and they haven't even bothered to support the Democrat contesting the newly-redrawn 2nd House district.
posted by indubitable at 2:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Saw a Hillary ad this morning in Fort Worth Texas, one of the "here are things Donald Trump said, OMG he's going to start a nuclear war." ones.

Not likely she can take Texas, so I like to think she's doing it just because she can.

I hope I live long enough to see the Texas Republican asshats currently devoted to keeping most of our state poor, polluted, ignorant and sick, state swept back under the rocks they came from.
posted by emjaybee at 2:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

@CNNSitRoom: Breaking: Trump Campaign Advertising on Television in Swing States.

Brian Stelter is literally a boy who cried Wolf.
posted by Talez at 2:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Krauthammer buries the lede

He just can't bring himself to actually endorse Clinton. It's like Otto trying to say "I'm sorry."
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Wolf Blitzer interrogating Rudy Giuliani, who is saying he never said he got inside information from FBI. “If I did say that I” misspoke.

And Wolf said "here's the video of you saying it"

And Rudy said "Ah, yes, of course I said that. I lied. Tee Hee!"

And then... and then... [fake as hell]
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:33 PM on November 4, 2016

BREAKING: In 10 minutes we'll be revealing where certain ursine mammals have been found to defecate. The answer may surprise you!
posted by 0xFCAF at 2:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

A friend who is a Director of a public library in rural Florida has just sent out these two tweets: [1] [2].
posted by Wordshore at 2:36 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

I think the takeaway has already been , "Oops, we aren't the people who own the GOP anymore!"

Yep! All the talk of the GOP failing to learn the lesson of its 2012 postmortem misses the point a bit because the audience for that postmortem was the party elites, and elites didn't pick Donald Trump. Voters did. Racist, hateful, sexist, ignorant, and/or desperate voters. The GOP may be beyond convincing because it's not being led by anything analogous to a brain anymore. How do you sit down 14 million Trump primary voters and explain to them why racism isn't the way to win elections anymore?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:37 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oh dear. Another email.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 2:38 PM on November 4, 2016 [41 favorites]

@RCorySmith
This is an actual photo from Reuters of Pat McCrory voting at an NC library. How did this even happen?

Beautiful.
posted by acidic at 2:38 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

How do you sit down 14 million Trump primary voters and explain to them why racism isn't the way to win elections anymore?

Almost impossible when you've convinced them racism is over.
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

I can't favorite that email enough, senor cardgage.

Thanks for making me laugh
posted by orange ball at 2:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

This is an actual headline that needed to be written in this the year of 2016: No, John Podesta didn’t drink bodily fluids at a secret Satanist dinner.

Please end already.
posted by zachlipton at 2:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oh dear. Another email.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 2:38 PM on November 4 [5 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]

Many combolations, Elizagerth
posted by J.K. Seazer at 2:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [27 favorites]

Ha! I totally forgot what my username is here.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 2:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged

It's ratfuckers all the way down
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 2:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

BREAKING: New email reveals Hillary likes to curl up with tea and read Human Rights Watch reports.

--@nxthompson

She's also interested in Parks and Recreation and The Good Wife, but apparently does not own a TV guide. Also, not really a new email.
posted by zachlipton at 2:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

It's ratfuckers all the way down

Doesn't there have to be a rat at the bottom?
posted by spitbull at 2:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

No, John Podesta didn’t drink bodily fluids at a secret Satanist dinner.

No, John Podesta is not secretly the frontman for a Satanic rock group

although shave his head and give him some shades and there's a pretty good resemblance
posted by Existential Dread at 2:51 PM on November 4, 2016

DNC: Hey FBI, it appears our offices have been bugged!
FBI: You don't say! We'll send a tech out to the crawl space over the east hall to check on that right away.
[fake]
posted by contraption at 2:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

DNC offices bugged.
What even is this year?
They say that 1968 was even crazier than 2016 and frankly if that is true then Im surprised everyone didn't get addicted to heroin back then.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 2:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

23 great pieces of pop culture that almost make up for this dismal election

This is now way upthread, but I just clicked on this and found out that a friend-of-a-friend who I always liked a lot but never really became friend-friends with is now a writer for the AV Club! I hope it's as cool a job as it sounds!
posted by Metroid Baby at 2:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm now listening to the Surfari's album.
I'm listening to the '60s surf music of the band the "Frontier Psychiatrist" band stole the name from. The Original Avalanches "SKI SURFIN'"! Ah, the old days of holiday music and reliable winter weather.

And for quality comfort-foody ice cream, I recommend Tillamook brand (been eating their cheese for years and recently also enjoyed their Greek Yogurt but I'll probably switch back to Chobani just because the racists hate it, but I digress). You don't need to get their 'super premium', their regular is pretty damn good; the Vanilla Bean has "real crushed Madagascar vanilla beans" but my fave is the entertainingly named 'Udderly Chocolate'. Their big cartons are bigger than most (56 ounces vs. 48; remember 'half gallons'?) and their ice cream sandwiches 'Tillamookies' are creatively yummy.

In a way, I don't mind the "closehorserace" coverage in that it will motivate sane people to DON'T PANIC JUST VOTE (we need a Hitchhiker's Guide to 2016) because the insane people already will/have.

How do you sit down 14 million Trump primary voters and explain to them why racism isn't the way to win elections anymore?
It's all they have anymore, and if it means handing over your tax dollars to a career con man in exchange for getting to burn down a few non-Christian houses of worship, it's worth it.

DNC: Hey FBI, it appears our offices have been bugged!
FBI: Sorry, didn't hear you because of the feedback; let me turn down the other audio input...
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

That DNC bugging article looks mighty thin:

The second sweep, according to the Democratic officials, found a radio signal near the chairman's office that indicated there might be a listening device outside the office. "We were told that this was something that could pick up calls from cell phones," a DNC official says. "The guys who did the sweep said it was a strong indication." No device was recovered. No possible culprits were identified.

So no actual evidence that there was anything there, only a vague "signal" that "might be a listening device". For what should be a bombshell of a story, you'd think they would have actually recovered a device.
posted by indubitable at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

So no actual evidence that there was anything there, only a vague "signal" that "might be a listening device".

And if there was something there, publicizing the story without first recovering the device makes it very likely that the device will be remotely disabled or physically removed before it can be discovered.
posted by contraption at 3:03 PM on November 4, 2016

Texas Latino turnout up sharply in early voting surge

Through Wednesday, with two more days of early voting left, Latino turnout in the state’s 20 most populous counties had already exceeded Latino early voting turnout in 2012 by 26 percent, according to data compiled by Derek Ryan, a political consultant and former research director of the Republican Party of Texas.

According to the article, probably not enough to color Texas blue this year, but it's only a matter of time. I can't wait to see Texas turn blue!
posted by syzygy at 3:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Maybe I am reading this wrong, but looks like very high female voter turnout in Georgia (twitter).
posted by sallybrown at 3:07 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

If we trust in the data that 28% of GOP FL voters flipped (and I know some don't think that's accurate), what do we think of the NPA voters? Maybe Murphy has a fighting chance after all.

Steve Schale himself is optimistic, in part because of the growth in NPAs. A lot of the Puerto Ricans who have come to Florida are NPA.

In general an uptick in Latino voting would be underrepresented in the polls. Because the demographic has had low voter turnout in the past, they will not be weighted as likely voters in many screens.
posted by msalt at 3:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Psst! Hey, syzygy—this post from earlier today might be of interest to you.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Hey, has that secret FB group (PN) vanished for other folks?
posted by oakroom at 3:12 PM on November 4, 2016

Yep
posted by kirkaracha at 3:14 PM on November 4, 2016

Yup, it's vanished for everyone as far as I can tell -- there'd been well over 100K new members added since I was added this morning, so I'm thinking we broke Facebook. Hopefully it comes back up soon.
posted by palomar at 3:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

WaPo In ‘Little Moscow,’ Russians helped Donald Trump’s brand survive the recession

As he sat in the marble-paneled common room of Sunny Isles’ Trump Tower I overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, Masarsky added another aspect of Trump’s appeal: “Russians compare him to Putin. They like a strong personality.”

Roman Bokeria, the Georgian-born chief executive of Miami Red Square Realty, said that Russian-speaking investors have been attracted to the Trump buildings because they see the brand as a safe place for their money.

“They don’t trust stocks or bonds,” Bokeria said. “They want real estate, something they can see and touch and feel. And for Russians, where is the best real estate? It’s Miami and South Florida. It’s Trump. That is the dream.”

posted by zachlipton at 3:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Seconding the thanks to sallybrown for the link to What It Took:

But there was a bigger compromise in front of her, one that was politically a much bigger deal. “He lost because she hadn’t changed her name,” Ann Henry told me.

“It cost them dearly,” Schechter, her Wellesley thesis adviser, told me last week. “So she learned: You better go along to get along.”

“Rodham, Rodham, Rodham,” said Verveer, describing the crux of the attacks from her husband’s opponents—already in 1978, when he had won, and again in 1980, when he had not. “As though she were a monster from another world.”

How much was her identity worth if it meant costing him his political future? Her calculation was concise, as she would phrase it in the memoir: “I decided it was more important for Bill to be Governor than for me to keep my maiden name.” She made her announcement at the same news conference her husband announced he would be running to win back the office.

I knew she'd changed her name, but I had no idea about the circumstances. I will do my best never to refer to her as "Clinton" again. It's Rodham Clinton or Rodham from now on, as far as I'm concerned.
posted by galaxy rise at 3:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

Here's an easier way to bet on a Clinton victory.

Buy the S&P 500 index. The index has been depressed about 5% since Trump got the nomination because of market uncertainty. If Clinton wins, it has a good chance of recovering that 5%. If Trump wins it it might go down another 10%. So if it has a 5% upside and a 10% downside, you take the bet if you think Clinton has a better than 67% chance of winning.

The advantage of this bet rather than the bookmakers is that the amount you can bet is unlimited and if you lose, instead of losing everything, you only lose 10%.
posted by JackFlash at 3:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

> They say that 1968 was even crazier than 2016 and frankly if that is true then Im surprised everyone didn't get addicted to heroin back then.

We did. We just don't tell you younger folks about it because we're ashamed. The '70s were one long detox.
posted by languagehat at 3:18 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

That GA poll from yesterday that had Clinton down 1 looked like a fluke. Here's another poll from today with Clinton down...by 2. We haven't talked about Senator Isakson much at all in here, but looks like he'll be going to a runoff...

Eat a peach, Donald!
posted by sallybrown at 3:19 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Eat a peach, Donald!

Hey now, hey now...
posted by peacheater at 3:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

(Seriously if GA is this close according to "likely" metrics and the female turnout so far is that inflated...what if we get a Democratic senator from GA?)
posted by sallybrown at 3:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

As far as I'm concerned, she can go by whatever name she wants, but there's a small part of me that hopes she gets up there on inauguration day (TTTCS) and corrects the Chief Justice, "actually, it's Clinton Rodham now."
posted by zachlipton at 3:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hey mom, the MeFite who started this account for me says to check your MeMail for the password. I am negative-some-amount-of-time old and already sick of this election, but I can't wait to get on here and start posting mushroom recipes or scanned cats or whatever it is you people do.
posted by alleycat01's bundle of joy at 3:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [80 favorites]

The '70s were one long detox.

I guess that explains the food.

How the world views the US election

2016: A Liberal Odyssey
posted by the man of twists and turns at 3:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

RE: the close GA polls. If it's close in GA, NC should be maybe assured?

@Nate_Cohn
The real lesson is for NC
posted by chris24 at 3:26 PM on November 4, 2016

And what is up with naming the kids "Blort"

*cough*
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 3:26 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

@electionsmith
Hispanic EIP voting in Florida is off the charts...429k have voted in person, up 152% at this time in 2012

#TrumpEffect
posted by chris24 at 3:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

I'm still amused her email addy was hrod17. It's the year you take office that's important.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

"actually, it's Clinton Rodham now"

Well, that would certainly take care of the concern trollery that goes "B-b-but how can you have two President Clintons living in the White House at the same time?? How are the staff supposed to address Bill?? Constitutional crisis!!"
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Women (including women of color) and other people of color are about to save this democracy from fascism. Despite a campaign season that's largely ignored their stories in favor of urging the nation to sympathize with white working class men. Despite being warned there will be people watching them at the polls. Despite record-breaking impediments for voters of color. Despite over 500 days of being afraid of what their lives could look like under Donald Trump and his goons, and of being reminded every single day of the times when men like him treated us like we weren't fully human.

This is why I will go canvass and call voters like a good girl this weekend, but I am also going to watch this unfold this weekend through Tuesday like a hawk, because it is going to be GLORIOUS, RIGHTEOUS PAYBACK. I am not going to stop watching the news NOW, of all times! I want to see those white male pundits' faces melt off.
posted by sallybrown at 3:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [111 favorites]

then Im surprised everyone didn't get addicted to heroin back then.

Sort of a lot of people did. One reason every year back then sucked a little worse was how many young people kept dying both in war and from addiction. Heroin ate a big hole in the arts community and the left youth movements and civil rights movements alike.
posted by spitbull at 3:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

U.S. Govt. Hackers Ready to Hit Back If Russia Disrupts Election (NBC News)

U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News.

American officials have long said publicly that Russia, China and other nations have probed and left hidden malware on parts of U.S critical infrastructure, "preparing the battlefield," in military parlance, for cyber attacks that could turn out the lights or turn off the internet across major cities.

It's been widely assumed that the U.S. has done the same thing to its adversaries. The documents reviewed by NBC News — along with remarks by a senior U.S. intelligence official — confirm that, in the case of Russia.

Yikes.
posted by sallybrown at 3:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

I am not going to stop watching the news NOW, of all times! I want to see those white male pundits' faces melt off.

I want to watch Fox Tuesday night because I want their tears.

I want their tears so very, very badly.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

The second sweep, according to the Democratic officials, found a radio signal near the chairman's office that indicated there might be a listening device outside the office. "We were told that this was something that could pick up calls from cell phones," a DNC official says. "The guys who did the sweep said it was a strong indication." No device was recovered. No possible culprits were identified.

I think it's worth noting that it's largely a movie trope that you sweep the detector around, hear a squeal, and then pull the obvious bug out of the telephone/light fixture/heating vent. In the past I have worked with some folks at $BigStateU that described a situation where, in a single department, there are multiple (as in 10s to 100) machines on the wifi that are unsecured and not in compliance with the IT policies, and may be zombies left by prior students, and they can't find the damn things. Radio-emitting devices in constant communication with the wireless network in a single building, and a multi-person IT department can't locate them even in the absence of a nefarious actor. It doesn't surprise me that the DNC can identify the radio signals of a potential bug but can't find it.
posted by Existential Dread at 3:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

@karentravers
NEW @ABC-WP tracker: Clinton 47 Trump 43. Support for Trump has slipped to lowest in 10 days, enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has recovered
posted by Senor Cardgage at 3:44 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

the thing that scares me about Russia is that Putin can't back down. He's trying to outrun a collapsing economy by chasing a war with the US. That is...not great.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:44 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

As a person who uses a spectrum analyzer to sniff out devices causing RF interference I can agree that it's hard to track stuff down even when no attempt is being made to conceal it, but also that that (at least with the grade of gear I'm stuck with) it's not at all uncommon to see a weird one-off signal that might be something local, but could also be something passing by, something strong but far away, or just an artifact of the tools.
posted by contraption at 3:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

The governor gets to appoint a replacement until another election is held. Considering that it's Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat (who used to work with the Clintons, no less), it's a safe seat for now.

McAuliffe in December: "I've got this thing and it's fucking golden, and, uh, uh, I'm just not giving it up for fuckin' nothing."
posted by JackFlash at 3:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News.

So...bets on whether this is the Obama Administration deliberately creating a leak in order to warn the Russians?

Ordinarily I'd take for granted that this is deliberate, but after the last few days of FBI Gone Wild it's hard to take for granted that other intelligence agencies aren't getting froggy, too.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Apologies if someone has posted it before but here is The Voter Suppression Trail an Oregon trail type thing by the NYT.
posted by juv3nal at 3:48 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

From: H 'hrod17@clintonemail.com'

Wait, she couldn't even get the username of her choice without appending a number to the end, ON HER OWN SERVER?
posted by ckape at 3:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [23 favorites]

Wolf Blitzer interrogating Rudy Giuliani, who is saying he never said he got inside information from FBI. “If I did say that I” misspoke.

Huh. I wonder if Wolf started attending journalism night school.
posted by duffell at 3:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

You think he's chasing war with the US? I'm not sure what he's going for with Trump. Could be that he just wants a friendly leader in office to reopen trade. Could be he's hoping Trump will literally collapse the government.

I'm thinking just likes the idea of a weak, isolationist US that abandons NATO and lets him re-expand into the Baltic States and beyond.
posted by saturday_morning at 3:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Shaaaaaaaade

Giuliani: Christie is still leading Trump's transition team 'as far as I know'

Rudy Giuliani said that as far as he knows, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is still leading Donald Trump’s transition team.

“As far as I know he is, but I'm not, I mean I haven't been involved with the transition team at all, so you probably have to check with someone else,” Giuliani told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Friday afternoon. “As far as I know, he is, yes.”

posted by sallybrown at 3:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Trump campaign will appeal district court order against voter intimidation-related actions to the 6th Circuit
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 3:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Harry Enten's interview on The Gist today is good for those of us suffering from 538-related anxiety. Everything he says sounds good for Hillary.
posted by diogenes at 3:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Wait, she couldn't even get the username of her choice without appending a number to the end, ON HER OWN SERVER?

the 17 is her inauguration year, as has been foretold
posted by mochapickle at 3:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

Latino Early Vote Surges From Florida to Nevada

Latino voters are already showing up to vote this election and could cast ballots in larger numbers than Democrats saw in recent elections.

On a call with reporters Friday, Latino Decisions--a polling group focused on Hispanic voting patters--said that Latino turnout is on track to make history next week.

On the call, Gabriel Sanchez, a principal at Latino Decisions, pointed to early voting trends that show Latino early voting is up 100 percent in Florida, 60 percent in North Carolina and up 25 percent in Colorado and Nevada.

Sanchez said at this point, Latino Decisions is projecting that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote on or before Tuesday--a major increase from 2012 numbers when the group estimated 11.2 million voted.

No creo que sean partidarios de Trump.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [38 favorites]

roomthreeseventeen: Trump campaign will appeal district court order against voter intimidation-related actions to the 6th Circuit

Is there any chance this could go anywhere before the election? The courts almost never move that fast.
posted by Mitrovarr at 3:54 PM on November 4, 2016

One deleted. Sorry, "is teaching valued at R1s" is too big a derail, and we can't do it in here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 3:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Whoa. With all the talk of latinx turnout, Asian-Americans are showing up too.

@samsteinhp
Mook says they've seen a 90% increase in turnout of Asian American voters versus 2012
posted by chris24 at 3:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

Harry Enten's interview on The Gist today is good for those of us suffering from 538-related anxiety. Everything he says sounds good for Hillary.

Meanwhile Silver is still flogging fear on twitter.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Whoa. With all the talk of latinx turnout, Asian-Americans are showing up too.

@samsteinhp
Mook says they've seen a 90% increase in turnout of Asian American voters versus 2012

some anectdata: all my Asian friends (and me!) have already voted early here in MD and DC, based on facebook and instagram.
posted by numaner at 4:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

If these early turnout numbers are showing what they seem to be then we owe women and latino people a huge debt of thanks for saving the world.
That means our savior is in essence a latina.
And *that* means all of us are going to have to take back some of the things we said about Gigli.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 4:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [21 favorites]

Mook says they've seen a 90% increase in turnout of Asian American voters versus 2012

Sam Wang wrote a recent article noting that the Asian American vote has shifted dramatically since 1992, from +40% R to +40% D. So that is very good news for Hillary and Dem Senate candidates.
posted by msalt at 4:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Giuliani: Christie is still leading Trump's transition team 'as far as I know'

What he is not doing is campaigning for Trump in New Hampshire tomorrow. He has canceled all three of his appearances.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

No. I stand by my comments about Gigli. She knew what she was doing when she signed on! She knew it all along!
posted by numaner at 4:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I know that Texas really can't turn blue, but I still have a tiny shred of optimism.

For the past several years I have worked in it near one of the county voting locations. I've watched the lines for the last presidential election and the local elections, two of which were very high profile. I have never seen lines as long on election day as I have in the past two weeks of early voting. It's a university location, so it's by and large students, who skew highly Democrat. Today there were what looked like 150 people in line.
posted by tofu_crouton at 4:05 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

nothing that comes in a half-gallon is "good" ice cream except maybe Tillamook but definitely not Breyer's

Oregon is blessed with two excellent half-gallon ice creams with a good range of flavors: Tillamook and Umpqua. They even have price wars against each other, so they go for around $3.50 a half-gallon. I guess all that coastal rain is good for dairy farms.

Not sure how widely distributed it is in other states, though.
posted by msalt at 4:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Giuliani: Christie is still leading Trump's transition team 'as far as I know'

Considering that we're talking (hopefully) about the transition from public eye to dust heap of history, I can't really think of anyone more qualified to lead that team than Christie.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

I know that Texas really can't turn blue

Sí! Se! Puede!!!
posted by sallybrown at 4:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [54 favorites]

If Dems win the Senate and Pat Leahy is Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he might want to subpoena Mr. Giuliani about who his Hatch-violating friends in the NYC FBI are.
posted by chris24 at 4:10 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Just read this bit of Trump in Ohio on infrastructure. Apparently he thinks he should hold rallies and ask people "how do you like doing the interstate?" and "how do you like doing the bridge?" and decide what projects to fund with some kind of applauseometer. I'm sure "how do you like putting the power plant over in 'those people's' neighborhood?" will be especially popular.

You know we should do that, before we do a project have a big rally, how do you like doing the interstate? People go uhhh, "How do you like doing the bridge?" Oh we love it. It's not a bad way actually

posted by zachlipton at 4:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I know that Texas really can't turn blue, but I still have a tiny shred of optimism. ... I have never seen lines as long on election day as I have in the past two weeks of early voting.

Winning Texas this year would probably take a landslide for Hillary, but just getting close should convince Democrats to put serious resources into competing for the state in 2018 and 2020, and that alone is a huge plus for the left. Defending Texas will take a lot of Republican resources either way, and if it goes blue, Republicans will be simply unable to win the presidency.

Also, don't forget that Republican control of the House and Senate is heavily dependent on Republican gerrymandering in Texas, which as you recall resulted from Tom Delay's felonious illegal funding and a highly suspect mid-decennium redistricting. The second Democrats take the state back, all of that can be reversed.
posted by msalt at 4:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [31 favorites]

U.S. Govt. Hackers Ready to Hit Back If Russia Tries to Disrupt Election

U.S. military hackers have penetrated Russia's electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin's command systems, making them vulnerable to attack by secret American cyber weapons should the U.S. deem it necessary, according to a senior intelligence official and top-secret documents reviewed by NBC News.
posted by bluecore at 4:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

"2016: A Liberal Odyssey"??
No, 2016: A Trump Odyssey. Thank you, Jon Rosenberg, I continue to wear your 'macho broccoli' shirt with pride.

I'm in almost-Southern California with Tillamook Ice Cream available in the supers (I spent so long on my last multiple-sidetracked comment I missed most of the Tillamook conversation) but even it isn't a halfgallon anymore , but it's closer than most... $5.99 regular price, frequent sales at $4-$4.50 (and once recently, I doubled up on a sale at Vons/Safeway and an 'electronic coupon' to get two cartons for $3 each).
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:16 PM on November 4, 2016

You know we should do that, before we do a project have a big rally, how do you like doing the interstate? People go uhhh, "How do you like doing the bridge?" Oh we love it. It's not a bad way actually.

Isn't that how public works projects work already? Maybe nobody shows up, but generally there's a public meeting for that kind of thing, no?
posted by Sys Rq at 4:16 PM on November 4, 2016

Sí! Se! Puede!!!

This map is going to be so damn pretty come Wednesday.
posted by schadenfrau at 4:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

An electoral college voter says he won't vote for Clinton.

I mean, that's some sort of cause for removal, right?
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 4:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

TGIFOS
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Kelly O'Donnell (twitter): .@ChrisChristie had planned to campaign for @realDonaldTrump in NH Saturday but he has canceled

wamp wamp
posted by sallybrown at 4:28 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Trump has changed his hair. I repeat. Trump has changed his hair.

Maybe being around Pence has worn off on him?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:28 PM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

Giuliani: Christie is still leading Trump's transition team 'as far as I know'

oh lordy lord I cannot wait for these pricks to turn on each other in the aftermath of their loss

it's gonna be better than the lighthouse scene in Battle Royale :D
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

An electoral college voter says he won't vote for Clinton.

I mean, that's some sort of cause for removal, right?

That story broke a month or two ago. He's a shitbird. We won't need his vote anyway.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 4:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I keep seeing "I Talked To Some Trump Voters" articles... (I have been so lucky to have no political encounters - no signs in my neighborhood, no politics in neighbor, bus, doctors office or store conversations) but if I were to talk to a Trump voter, it would end with me selling them some Florida real estate "right in the middle of the coral reefs; when they're bleached you'll be able to start building on them!" Because the common denominator for Trump voters isn't Angry, Scared or Racist... it's gullible.
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I know it's unrealistic to not look at polls despite knowing it will just cause stress, so let's take a look at the latest PEC:

As of November 4, 7:06PM EDT:
Snapshot (216 state polls): Clinton 312, Trump 226 EV Meta-margin: Clinton +2.6%

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98%, Bayesian >99%

Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50, Meta-margin: D +0.8%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 76%

Cool.
posted by msalt at 4:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump has changed his hair.

Yeah, it actually sorta works.
posted by penduluum at 4:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

Phil Elliot of Time (twitter): Per pooler @EliStokols, the crowd at Trump's rally in NH has graduated from "lock her up" to "execute her."
posted by sallybrown at 4:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Fun fact: the meaning of the name "Rudolph Giuliani" is "fascist wet fart."
posted by duffell at 4:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

This new hairdo will pull over the rest of the undecideds. It's over, folks.
posted by zakur at 4:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I think it is basically a done deal that Bobby Scott will replace Tim Kaine in the Senate should Hillary win.
posted by humanfont at 4:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Coventry: "Can transport workers strike by refusing to collect fares? That way they would increase financial pressure on management by keeping maintenance/fuel costs up but pushing revenue to zero, and at the same time avoid alienating customers."

Generally you can work to rule as a job action but it is pretty hard to imagine collecting fares isn't in the job description.

zachlipton: "'Starship Troopers' Reboot in the Works (Exclusive)

Because what we all really need right now is more glorification of fascism from an author with well-known blind spots of racism and sexism, right?"

RAH is dead; it's not like he'd be penning the movie.

And it's not like the original movie (AKA: 90210 Goes to War) was true to the source material. It was basically scripted from the cover art. And not the better cover art; maybe this one. I mean how the smeg do you make a Starship Troopers action movie and not have power armour and atomic weapons; the Mobile in MI? It was stupidly disappointing.

So there are at least two movies that could be derived from the book:
One a gritty drama hung on federal service with maybe 20-25 minutes of combat. This one could be problematic and is likely to appear to glorify fascism. But we've also come a long way since 1959; this movie could side step all of the sexist problems of the book. Sexism and other isms aren't immutable foundations of the work. I mean it 99% wouldn't but it could given the right director. There are lots of morality plays available in the source material to de glorify Fascism.

Two a shoot em up, glorify war, action movie featuring the Mobile Infantry. The latter could be either an origin story hewing somewhat closely to the book or a general action flick encompassing as little or as much of the book as you want. Heck you could easily spin a 90 minute action movie out of the Brain Bug Hunt featuring Sgt Zim alone. Setup right there is easily a trilogy covering Rico's advancement. Cast it like the Fast and the Furious. MI in the book is already highly integrated except for being all men; not hard at all to integrate genders.

And you could have a spin off movie covering the Navy and featuring an all female cast ala Ghostbusters 2016. 100% true to the source material; the fan boys would have even less justification for protest than usual. Slice and dice how ever you want.

And hey, lots of strong rolls for amputee actors.
posted by Mitheral at 4:34 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Kellyanne Conway @KellyannePolls
#teamwork #NH

Just a reminder that entertainment network CNN still pays that piece of shit Lewandowski a salary.
posted by Talez at 4:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Phil Elliot of Time (twitter): Per pooler @EliStokols, the crowd at Trump's rally in NH has graduated from "lock her up" to "execute her."

Yeah, ok, let's get the Secret Service on this. This is terrifying.
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:36 PM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

Trump has changed his hair. I repeat. Trump has changed his hair.

It turned white when he heard about the BridgeGate convictions.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:37 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

That electoral college guy makes me incendiary with rage. It. Is. Not. About. You. You have one fucking job, you soulless cretin. Do it or step aside.
posted by thebrokedown at 4:37 PM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

Phil Elliot of Time (twitter): Per pooler @EliStokols, the crowd at Trump's rally in NH has graduated from "lock her up" to "execute her."

Yes, and Katy Tur was called a whore to her face. This is what makes a Trump Rally so special-- that great smell of free-wheelin misogyny.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

This is a real article, and the quotes are from real people. I am not making this up:

A Guy In A Trump Shirt Carried A Gun Outside Of A Virginia Polling Place. Authorities Say That’s Fine.

WASHINGTON ― A man wearing a Donald Trump shirt and carrying a weapon stood outside a voting location in Loudoun County, Virginia, on Friday. Authorities in the nation’s richest county are apparently OK with that.

Erika Cotti encountered the man when she went to vote at the county’s registrar’s office, she told The Huffington Post. Virginia doesn’t have early voting per se, but voters can cast in-person absentee ballots for a host of reasons, like if they’re going to be out of the county or city on Election Day.

“I had my 9-year-old son with me. I felt intimidated,” Cotti said. “And I had to explain to my 9-year-old why a man with a 357 magnum is standing outside the polling station.”

Cotti said the man offered her a Republican sample ballot, which she declined.

“He’s like, ‘Who are you going to vote for, crooked Hillary?’ And I was like, that’s really none of your business,” Cotti said, adding that the man was standing in the sidewalk outside of the office when they left and blocking their path.

Judy Brown, Loudoun County registrar, confirmed that the man was standing outside her office in Leesburg and handing out GOP literature.

“There is a gentleman standing outside the office with a holstered gun,” Brown told HuffPost. “According to law enforcement, because Virginia is open carry, he’s allowed to have it.”

Brown noted that the man was “being nice” to people, and that he appeared to respecting the observed 40-foot no-canvassing zone outside of the entrance.

“They said that there’s nothing they could do, that he was well within his rights to be carrying his weapon,” Brown said.

Brown said her office contacted the local Republican Party, which got the man to agree to pull his Trump shirt over the weapon so people couldn’t see it. “Hopefully nobody else will be concerned about him,” Brown said.

Loudoun County Republican Committee Chairman Will Estrada told HuffPost that the man was a former law enforcement official and veteran with a concealed carry permit.

“’We don’t want to startle anyone,’” Estrada said he told him. “He felt really bad, he pulled his T-shirt over it, and I think everything was fine after that.”

posted by sallybrown at 4:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Brown said her office contacted the local Republican Party, which got the man to agree to pull his Trump shirt over the weapon so people couldn’t see it.

Does he have a concealed carry permit?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

“He felt really bad, he pulled his T-shirt over it, and I think everything was fine after that.”

YES PULL THE SHIRT OVER THE GUN THIS IS FINE
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

If elected Clinton will be the 7th secretary of state to become president, and the first since James Buchanan, just before the Civil War.
Fun fact: there have been two secretaries of state named Elihu.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

"He felt really bad"

Surrrre ok
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 4:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

That electoral college guy makes me incendiary with rage. It. Is. Not. About. You. You have one fucking job, you soulless cretin. Do it or step aside.

I think if we put enough R&D money into it, we can fix the system by creating life-like androids with sufficient programming to be mathematically provable to always cast the vote for the candidate that got the most votes in a state.

Or we could get rid of the electoral college, but that's mostly just crazy fantasy talk.
posted by indubitable at 4:44 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oh come on, the guy with the open carry gun blocking the sidewalk into the voting place and asking women with children if they're voting for "Crooked Hillary" was "being nice!" Leave the nice man alone! He's probably for Trump because he's a sad working class white man! Have empathy for him!
posted by sallybrown at 4:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [65 favorites]

“Hopefully nobody else will be concerned about him,” Brown said.

Yeeeeah, because the people who are concerned are the source of the trouble.
posted by mixedmetaphors at 4:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

“He felt really bad, he pulled his T-shirt over it, and I think everything was fine after that.”

YES PULL THE SHIRT OVER THE GUN THIS IS FINE

I hate to bring race into this but how fine would it be if he was black? If a black man showed up with a weapon and accosted people 40 feet from the entrance to the office would that be fine? Would everybody be like, "Oh yeah it's cool, no sweat."
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:48 PM on November 4, 2016 [43 favorites]

Jane Doe withdrew her lawsuit against Trump today after receiving death threats.
posted by melissasaurus at 4:48 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Ed Henry from Fox News had an interesting take on the video of Obama telling rally crowd to respect pro-Trump heckler:

Turn on @FoxNews -- President says "sit down and be quiet" to trump backer and clinton folks trying to shout guy down

Then, after numerous people reply to take issue with his unique interpretation:

As i said he told protester AND the pro-Clinton supporters to quiet -- was a funny moment on the trail no need for u to twist it

Then after even more people weigh in to tell him how full of shit he is:

President absolutely did stand up for protester's rights & said the crowd should show respect for military vet, why it was good moment
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

I guess Democrats could fight fire by sending a lot of Latinx and AA individuals wearing Hillary '16 shirts and carrying weapons outside of precincts in conservative areas.

No wait that would just result in a lot of dead minorities.
posted by vuron at 4:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

“Hopefully nobody else will be concerned about him,” Brown said.

Translation: Hopefully, there won't be any more Clinton voters trying to vote here.
posted by teirnon at 4:53 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

You think he's chasing war with the US?

The US military is the organization which just admitted to invading Russian infrastructure for the purpose of disabling it.

It's MADness.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Ugh. Today, for the first time in ages, I got into stupid arguments with people on both the left and right. They both say they hate Trump, but the one on the right said he may end up voting for him anyway (which is apparently Hillary's fault, somehow), and the one on the left is obsessed with the email thing and spouting your basic right-wing talking points, while also insisting that Sanders would have basically been anointed President and Savior by now because he's not a corrupt, lying, Wall-Street-whoring neoliberal leading us all into war.

I've come down with a nasty cold which is keeping me sidelined from canvassing, so I donated to Kander's Senate campaign in Missouri instead. I had to do something, since I'm entering the sleepless agitation phase and my usual anxiety-management methods aren't working.

Also I have a deadline tomorrow and have made very little progress on this paper so am feeling kind of general hopelessness toward the world. Bleh.
posted by Superplin at 4:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

spitbull: "It's ratfuckers all the way down

Doesn't there have to be a rat at the bottom?"

It's more of an ouroborosian, daisy chain of rat fucking.

Existential Dread: "Radio-emitting devices in constant communication with the wireless network in a single building, and a multi-person IT department can't locate them even in the absence of a nefarious actor. It doesn't surprise me that the DNC can identify the radio signals of a potential bug but can't find it."

And bugs can either batch transmit to avoid detection or not transmit at all. A bug that is either downloaded regularly or tapped into electrical and hardwire network isn't going to be uncovered by an antenna. This is really old tech, see The Thing (1945).

Secret Life of Gravy: "Trump has changed his hair. I repeat. Trump has changed his hair."

Wow, he's been sporting the same do since the 80s at least. He must be running scared.
posted by Mitheral at 4:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

The US is basically saying "Yeah you can get up some shenanigans on Tuesday trying to cripple the US internet with DDos and other cyberattacks" but it can easily be reciprocated. Think of it as the 21st century equivalent of deterrence through Mutually Assured Destruction, i.e don't start shit next week unless you are willing to get punched back.
posted by vuron at 4:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

while also insisting that Sanders would have basically been anointed President and Savior by now because he's not a corrupt, lying, Wall-Street-whoring neoliberal

While right wingers have the John MacClane good guy with a gun fantasy, those on the left have the Bernie Sanders: Supercandidate fantasy.
Both fantasies are absolutely reliant on never being tested in the real world and thus are able to remain forever perfect in the sealed snowglobe of imagination.
Where the Die Hard fantasy relies on a perfect imagined scenario of deadeye hipshots and expertly-aimed headshots against optimally hapless foes in an ideally envisioned environment, the Sanders scenario largely relies on believing in an America where half the population doesnt equate "socialism" with "communism" and vote accordingly.
I love Sanders too. That's why I backed him in the primaries until we lost (and we did lose). But thinking he'd be doing any better than Clinton at this point only works because it only has to pass the test of what we prefer to imagine. An easy bar to clear.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 5:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Powerful Clinton ad (new?) to encourage Latinx/Hispanic turnout (twitter).
posted by sallybrown at 5:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Also if anyone is feeling charitable toward a well-meaning honkey, can someone break down the "latinx" thing and its usage and so forth.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 5:03 PM on November 4, 2016

Easier than typing Latino/a.
posted by Sublimity at 5:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Latino/Latina is by nature gendered. Latinx is a concession that some people might not be defined by simple gender binaries.
posted by vuron at 5:05 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Here are two articles about it:
Why People Are Using The Term ‘Latinx’
Why We Say Latinx: Trans & Gender Non-Conforming People Explain
posted by Lexica at 5:05 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

The bad news: The Clinton Firewall has sprung a significant leak in New Hampshire. Couple more bad polls out of NH today (and one good one).

The good news: NH is only 4 electoral votes and can be made up in Nevada if Nevada peeps hang tough.
posted by Justinian at 5:05 PM on November 4, 2016

I personally am laughing at the TV personality based response to the Trump campaign's flaming fail. Yeah! Change his hair to look older and more presidential! Yeah, that's what we need!
posted by Sublimity at 5:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Latinx is a gender-neutral way to refer to people of Latin American origin.
Hispanic is a gender-neutral way to refer to people of Spanish-speaking origin.

So someone from Brazil is Latinx, but not Hispanic. Someone from Spain is Hispanic, but not Latinx.

I learned this on Metafilter!
posted by sallybrown at 5:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

The Florida calling list on hillaryclinton.com seems like a hot list to me tonight, lots of contacts, all supporters, several who I was able to help with early voting info, only one who hung up on me when I told him who I was.

It really is the best place to channel your election anxiety.
posted by zachlipton at 5:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

MADDoS?

This election's got it all.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:10 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

It's not Russia chasing the war, here, it's the US. The US military is the organization which just admitted to invading Russian infrastructure for the purpose of disabling it. The lack of message discipline in US intelligence organizations at the moment is mind-blowing.

uh, what? Russian FSB and GRU hacking units have been deliberately trying to influence our election. You think it was an accident the word got out that we can reciprocate if they continue? It was a message. Don't pretend the Russians are innocently minding their own business here. They're seeing how off-balance they can push us.
posted by bluecore at 5:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [37 favorites]

Thanks for the lesson, yallz!
posted by Senor Cardgage at 5:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Think of it as the 21st century equivalent of deterrence through Mutually Assured Destruction
The difference is that Russia can disavow Guccifer 2.0, but the US can't disavow NBC's claims. From a diplomatic perspective, it's a firm commitment to the degradation of Russian sovereignty which the US can't back away from.
posted by Coventry at 5:12 PM on November 4, 2016

Also if anyone is feeling charitable toward a well-meaning honkey, can someone break down the "latinx" thing and its usage and so forth.

I heard it actually pronounced recently, it's "la-TEEN-ecks."

So someone from Brazil is Latinx, but not Hispanic. Someone from Spain is Hispanic, but not Latinx.

LOTS of room for debate there. By one definition anything related to the Iberian Peninsula is Hispanic. You can see how complicated that rapidly becomes.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:12 PM on November 4, 2016

roomthreeseventeen, it is actually legal but is uncommon. He will face a $1000 fine as his only consequence.

When this first came out, I e-mailed the Washington State Democratic Party to ask what could be done in this matter, but received no reply. My hope is that Secretary Clinton will not need his vote to get to 270. The elector in question has said that he has received support from other electors (unknown from which states)and hopes they will follow his lead. Apparently, over time, 99% of electors do vote their states' will. At least that is encouraging, but it's time to revisit the idea that the electoral college is not needed.
posted by Silverstone at 5:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Russian FSB and GRU hacking units have been deliberately trying to influence our election.

There's no verifiable evidence of that, just claims from people connected to US intelligence, which has been overstating the threat posed by Russia for almost a century.
posted by Coventry at 5:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

can someone break down the "latinx" thing and its usage and so forth.

The basics have been covered, but one more important point: it's pronounced "LATin-eks" not "luh-TINKS."
posted by msalt at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

There's no verifiable evidence of that Maybe they are not going to verify that for any one of us, personally.
posted by Oyéah at 5:16 PM on November 4, 2016

I tried to use the electoral college as a topic for my english class this morning. If something is too complicated for an hour of deep explanation and conversation, then maybe we shouldn't be using it as a basic instrument of governance. Maybe.
posted by Glibpaxman at 5:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oyéah: But no one who knows the history of US Intelligence Community claims about Russian behavior would seriously believe them without supporting evidence.
posted by Coventry at 5:19 PM on November 4, 2016

Coventry: There's no verifiable evidence of that, just claims from people connected to US intelligence, which has been overstating the threat posed by Russia for almost a century.

There's no verifiable evidence that's been made public.
posted by Mitrovarr at 5:20 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Um halp me with my classic view fail. I did something this morning such that classic view on my phone looks the same as on my laptop and it wasn't like that before. I want all the navigation links back on the bottom with the handy "skip to the bottom" link at the top of the page but I can't figure out how to make that happen. I'm going to sprain my scrolling thumb on this thread without it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:21 PM on November 4, 2016

If something is too complicated for an hour of deep explanation and conversation, then maybe we shouldn't be using it as a basic instrument of governance. Maybe.

Eh. Rock, Paper, Scissors is easy to explain, but may be a bad way to choose a Prez.

An amendment to require faithful voting the first round should have bipartisan support.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

There's no verifiable evidence of that, just claims from people connected to US intelligence

Just the entire security apparatus of the US and Western Europe.
posted by diogenes at 5:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

But no one who knows the history of US Intelligence Community claims about Russian behavior would seriously believe them without supporting evidence.

Not true. CrowdStrike and IIRC a few other private infosec firms did independent analysis on the DNC hacks and all pointed to Russian known actors.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 5:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

soren_lorenson: try going to this link, it should set a cookie to tell your device you want the mobile version of the site: mobile.metafilter.com

Here's the brief FAQ entry about switching between mobile and standard (desktop) views, in Classic. You can switch from Classic to Modern and vice versa on your Preferences page.
posted by LobsterMitten at 5:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Good point! So just the US, Western Europe, and the private sector, but let's not jump to conclusions!
posted by diogenes at 5:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Special Agent Dale Cooper: Not necessarily state actors, though.
posted by Coventry at 5:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

US intelligence, which has been overstating the threat posed by Russia for almost a century.

You're aware of the whole "Russia invading and annexing sections of land from two different sovereign nations in the last 10 years" thing right? Also the whole "US as leader of the coalition that has thus far attempted to stop them in Ukraine through sanctions" and "US as scapegoat used to explain quality of life issues in Russia" thing too, correct? A disengaged US abandoning NATO would be the perfect thing for Russia right now, and guess which candidate is parroting RT, openly asking Russia to continue hacking Clinton, and enjoying seeming immunity from the sort of email hacks that have plagued the DNC?

The US intelligence community (not all of which is governmental.) isn't just saying shit to say shit when they talk about the possibility of outside interference in an election. It's kinda a huge deal. They wouldn't be saying it unless they thought it was or very likely was true.
posted by neonrev at 5:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [46 favorites]

Don't pretend the Russians are innocently minding their own business here. They're seeing how off-balance they can push us.

Then all the more reason for us to not allow them to push us into a mutually destructive war with them.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:25 PM on November 4, 2016

Couple comments deleted. We're not going to have a fight about the term "Latinx" in here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 5:26 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Coventry, tell us about your 400 pound hacker on his bed theory!
posted by diogenes at 5:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

It's more of a Trump-paid-Russian-hackers-for-the-hacks theory.
posted by Coventry at 5:29 PM on November 4, 2016

If something is too complicated for an hour of deep explanation and conversation, then maybe we shouldn't be using it as a basic instrument of governance. Maybe.

Eh. Rock, Paper, Scissors is easy to explain, but may be a bad way to choose a Prez.

Rock, Paper Scissors is like a 2 minute explanation, at most. I'm hoping for something that an adult can understand without too much difficulty and without vague unnecessary complexities. I see a lot of good stuff in the EC. For example forcing the political system to care about regional concerns and protecting against the tyranny of the majority. But I also think its a relic of the 18th century and needs a serious update.
posted by Glibpaxman at 5:32 PM on November 4, 2016

I'm pretty sure that when intelligence agencies say "Russia did it," they mean Russia the state. Not some random dudes in Russia.
posted by diogenes at 5:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Quantization of the Presidential vote is a nice plus for the EC. The only thing worse than recounts in one or two states is recounts in all 50 states.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

And I'm pretty sure that intelligence agencies lie and overstate the basis for their beliefs. See the "Missile Gap" for instance.
posted by Coventry at 5:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Yes State Actor, Coventry.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 5:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Thanks LobsterMitten. I had to just blow away my browsing history and cache altogether, which I should have thought to do before. But all is back to being right with my classic view. Phew!
posted by soren_lorensen at 5:37 PM on November 4, 2016

Just offering a little weird anecstory...as a military brat/dependent, I spent my high-school years from '80 to '85 in Europe. When I returned to SoCal I suffered massive culture shock.

The U.S. had changed so much and had become so unfriendly in so many ways. With the war on drugs and cracking down on "illegal immigrants", the criminalization of so many things, the enforcement of the "letter of the law"...

The Ronald Reagan effect didn't happen gradually for me, it hit me all at once. In just those few years the entire social climate of my town had totally changed and had become adversarial.

I'm telling this story, preaching to the choir, because I think it illustrates how the republican party works and why, even though they and their motives and means are so entirely obviously fucked up, are still incredibly effective for their cause.

It's just like how "gangs" were invented in the prison system by separating groups by race and creating adversarial environments. It's a means of population control. It keeps people occupied with bullshit contrived "team vs team" instead of real issues and resolutions to those issues.

Anyway, sorry for ranting and I don't even know if it makes sense, but it's been on my mind and I think you guys will understand.

Be good, be safe and, I know you will...go vote!
posted by 1980sPunkersForHillary.com at 5:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [44 favorites]

For example forcing the political system to care about regional concerns and protecting against the tyranny of the majority. But I also think its a relic of the 18th century and needs a serious update.

regional concerns

Like an outnumbered agrarian elite concerned that an emerging proletariat* might join forces with the serfs and slaves which provide its labor?

Yeah, leave that in the dustbin of history where it belongs. One person, one vote.

Get rid of the Senate while we're at it, or convert it to a nationally-elected proportional representative body.

*aware that this is an anachronism
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Rock, Paper Scissors is like a 2 minute explanation, at most. I'm hoping for something that an adult can understand without too much difficulty and without vague unnecessary complexities. I see a lot of good stuff in the EC.

My literal next sentence was: An amendment to require faithful voting the first round should have bipartisan support.

It should take less than two minutes to explain.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:41 PM on November 4, 2016

So... add my partner and I to the growing list of lurkers who've been following these election threads all year, as a way to keep track of all the goings-on, stay informed, and (most importantly) find a way to not let our anxiety disorders drive us completely batshit insane about this election!

We're still both pretty anxious, but! We got to see Hillary and Michelle in person two weeks ago (from a looong way away, but still)! We voted early, this past Saturday! I (finally) got an account here! :p And tomorrow, we're joining the Call From Your Couch effort to GOTV!

(Um, is it cool if we join the MeFi call team? Promise we've been dedicated lurkers for years! ;)

Anecdotal NC Early Voting report: we're lucky enough to rent in an older, very white, very middle-class area of town, so the closest early voting spot was just on the other end of our neighborhood - we could have walked, if we really needed to. The line was long, took about an hour and a half to get in to vote, but it moved steadily, we didn't see or hear of any problems. Of course, the early voting locations for the non-white areas of town were all moved, including off-campus for the local HBU. (Can I add my voice to the chorus screaming "down ballot, people!" Damn, our state legislature sucks.)

Anyway, thank you all for being an oasis of (mostly) sanity in these trying times!

(Oh, and count me also as one who appreciates the endless (glorious!) Hamilton references... it was only through MeFi that I finally decided to look up this thing everyone kept talking about, and now the amazement that is Hamilton is in my life! =) ...much to my partner's sometime dismay.... =P)
posted by Kelrichen at 5:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [75 favorites]

Well how is this going to play out on Election night? Blitzer announces, "And now we can confirm that Hillary Clinton has 270 electoral votes and thus has won the presidential race. This is a great historical moment. Hillary.... Oh wait. I've been informed that one electoral college voter has vowed he will not cast his vote for Clinton so she is only at 269 EVs."

Wow, he's been sporting the same do since the 80s at least. He must be running scared.
posted by Mitheral at 7:57 PM on November 4

So all these years Melania has had to pretend he looked great. She has had to tell him how wonderful his hair was, how much she liked it....blah blah blah. Now Kellyann Conway (presumably) comes along and talks him into changing his hair. Must be a bit provoking.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Between Achewood coming back this year, that Chris Onstad article being posted to the front page recently, and our continued annoyance at (allow me to say his name just once) Scott Adams, I present you with this relevant strip from 2008.
posted by The Horse You Rode In On at 5:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Get rid of the Senate while we're at it,

You're putting your faith in the House?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Um, is it cool if we join the MeFi call team? Promise we've been dedicated lurkers for years! ;)

YES!!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:44 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

And you know, I'm not even mad that he will vote Trump instead of Clinton. The other way would make me angry, as well. I'm angry that this fool is not doing the ONE THING he is supposed to do. I think it makes me think of pharmacists who refuse to fill prescriptions written by a damn doctor. Why get that job if you aren't capable of doing it?! None of this is about you! This fucking election.
posted by thebrokedown at 5:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

I think there is a lot of deliberate one hand not knowing what the other hand is doing, in this sort of work. Tacit approval and state blind eyedness, with full understanding of capabilities and intent, is a possibility.

Look at us, we have a ton of intelligence actors, who are not working for the US government as employees or civilian employees. They work in the defense industry and sub contract, their allegiances are hopefully aligned with the US, but they actually work for their bosses and shareholders in their corporations.

In Russia, it is entirely possible to have a very sophisticated private structure any more, that works alongside the state but not necessarily directed point to point on the schematic.

There is an enormous criminal enterprise that crosses all borders, deals in all sorts of goods, services, monies, promises, guarantees. They like how they work and sometimes there are brutal readjustments of priorities, or trade routes. There are a lot of people who work just for the money, what ever that work is. This whole thing is a crap shoot. The thing that really bothers me is the FBI just doesn't understand they work for all Americans, and they have a big job to accomplish on any day, and taking their eyes off the ball to play politics is one way to really screw up our political system. Especially if the crime that is ongoing against our political system, mirrors, on the surface, their political leaning.
posted by Oyéah at 5:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Well how is this going to play out on Election night?

If Clinton's at 323 or 254, then he gets to pull his "look at me" move. If she's at 270, he gets a very serious phone call telling him to stop being an idiot.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think there is a lot of deliberate one hand not knowing what the other hand is doing, in this sort of work. Tacit approval and state blind eyedness, with full understanding of capabilities and intent, is a possibility.

Exactly, and from a diplomatic perspective that's a much easier situation to work with.
posted by Coventry at 5:51 PM on November 4, 2016

Owen Ellickson ‏@onlxn
MOOK: Shit.
HILLARY:
MOOK: A Washington state elector refuses to vote for you. You need 271 now.
HILLARY: Ha! Of course I fucking do

I can't believe he's been giving this away for free for months.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [55 favorites]

You're putting your faith in the House?

Oh yeah also while we're passing amendments to clean up the Electoral College bullshit and drastically reform the Senate, we're also de-gerrymandering the House by requiring nonpartisan boundary commissions with strict Justice Department oversight. And federal administration of elections for federal office. And ponies. Many, many ponies.

*sob*
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

GQ We Asked Pro–Donald Trump Trolls What They Think of Melania’s Plan to End Cyberbullying

The way one user put it, as soon as Donald Trump wins the election, all dissenters will vanish into thin air, and there won't be anyone left for them to intimidate or harass:
“Once all the cucks flee back to whatever hole they crawled out from there’ll be nothing to cyber bully about.”[...]
Probably the most disheartening comment came from a user who wasn't interested in arguing about whether there is or is not a cyberbullying problem, or even if it's Melania's place to try to fix it:
“I think she looks hot and should keep the Don happy.”
Whether you support Melania or not, everyone can agree that America's First Lady isn't just an object to be gawped at. Everyone, it seems, apart from her husband's most loyal supporters.

posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Why is France so much at establishing new republics than us, we've been at the democracy game longer than they have
posted by Apocryphon at 5:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Looking at the law for Washington state it seems that the other electors can by a simple majority vote replace him if he refuses to vote for Hillary. He still has to pay the fine. The Secretary of State certifies the votes before sending them on.
posted by humanfont at 5:55 PM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Why is France so much at establishing new republics than us, we've been at the democracy game longer than they have

they keep getting invaded and have to start things over again
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:56 PM on November 4, 2016

Whether you support Melania or not, everyone can agree that America's First Lady isn't just an object to be gawped at. Everyone, it seems, apart from her husband's most loyal supporters.

And if Donald were to suddenly soften his tone and act like anything other than the ultimate alpha male, he'd become just another "cuck" to them.
posted by bananana at 5:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't know if this is gonna be useful to anyone at this late stage in the game but there's this pretty comprehensive roundup of the reputations and biases of the major American newspapers and newsmagazines from TV Tropes' "Useful Notes" section.
posted by The Horse You Rode In On at 5:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Kellyanne Conway spoke before Trump at his rally in Hersey Pennsylvania tonight. She was a bit drowned out by the crowd chanting "CNN Sucks." From pollster to campaign manager to public speaker. I wonder why they decided to have her speaking? Guiliani not available for rabble rousing?
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 6:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Sometimes, even in deepest, bluest Baltimore City, the crazy comes to you, in your mailbox. I opened my mailbox to find this bit of sheer, unbridled craziness in the mail today.

Their research is about as good as their spelling and grammar; I regularly vote Democratic (on those few occasions when I don't vote Green, Socialist, Worker's Party, or similar, as I sometimes do for random city offices here in Baltimore). But damn if this wasn't the most interesting piece of snail mail I've gotten in a good while.

Hoooooo-whee, this election season can't end soon enough.
posted by CommonSense at 6:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Owen Ellickson ‏@onlxn

That moment that you realize you've been all caught up on the Election Thread but you're days behind on TrumpLeaks by @onlxn

ahhhhhh
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:02 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

humanfont, would this be doable in practice before this person actually abstained? Do the electors take auxillary electors with them in case an elector becomes ill or if an elector refuses to vote the state's will? It all sounds very messy and I had wished this gentleman would step down from being an elector but he did not.
posted by Silverstone at 6:03 PM on November 4, 2016

Apocryphon: Then all the more reason for us to not allow them to push us into a mutually destructive war with them.

I reject your assessment that there is only a binary outcome here - that we either let Russia do whatever they want or we have a nuclear war. No one wants a war. But it's kind of important that we tell a foreign dictator to stop undermining our democracy. Putin came up in the KGB. Sowing chaos is part of his training, and he'll push until we make him stop. Russian proverb from Lenin: "Probe with bayonets. If you encounter steel, withdraw. If you encounter mush, continue.”
posted by bluecore at 6:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

I agree with you, bluecore, I just don't think telling him via NBC or verifying penetration of Russian systems was very smart.
posted by Coventry at 6:09 PM on November 4, 2016

Bye bye Issa. Hopefully.

@Redistrict
Horrific new voter registration data for GOP in CA: since '12, Ds have added 754,000 voters, Rs have lost 308,000.
http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/ror-pages/15day-gen-16/congressional.pdf
posted by chris24 at 6:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [32 favorites]

(From August) An Electoral College revolt against Donald Trump is quickly quashed in Georgia

By 5 p.m., Vu had surrendered, and another potential revolution – one with national overtones – had been quashed.

“My public expressions of misgivings about our party’s nominee has led to events that would be detrimental to the promotion of our party’s platform of limited government, free enterprise, and liberty. Thus, I am tendering my resignation as a presidential elector,” Vu said in a press release that was issued jointly with state GOP chair John Padgett.

Georgia elector can't vote Trump - vssht - he's out by close of business. Washington elector can't vote Clinton mmmwhheyy mwrgonna mwehhhh.

This is how you get Tom Daschle, people.
posted by petebest at 6:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

OK, I'm still around ten hours behind in this thread, but this morning's news about wicca/anti-christs/etc caused me to go to Drudge Report for the first time ever, and I really need some help reacting. I was expecting partisan hackery and conspiracy theories, but that site is bordering on time cube level lunacy (and atrocious web design)... Is this seriously where "normal" Republicans are getting their information in 2016? Cuz if so, my jcpl has just busted right off its moorings.
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 6:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Drudge got its start as the first source to take the Monica Lewinsky allegations seriously almost twenty years ago, so wrap your brain around what that time period has done to the GOP.
posted by Pope Guilty at 6:18 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Kellyanne Conway spoke before Trump at his rally

It was actually Michael Cohen first but after 15 minutes of him glowering at the crowd and shouting "What're YOU lookin' at? Hah?", and "Punk!", KellyAnne appeared and guided him offstage before speaking.

*sigh* Fine. [fake]
posted by petebest at 6:19 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

My in-laws use Drudge as their home page.

Noooooot looking forward to my next visit, either way.
posted by Elementary Penguin at 6:19 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

My in-laws use Drudge as their home page.

Yeah, we need a support group or something.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

From internet treasure, 90 year old former Dem Congressman John Dingell: a fantastic tweetstorm story about FDR and the Whitehouse starts here.

@JohnDingell
There's a old story that's been swimming around in my head in recent days and I thought I would share it with you if that is alright.
posted by chris24 at 6:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

10 Totally Fake Stories Bannered By Drudge This Year (2012)
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 6:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm not up to date on this thread but if anyone would like to be invited to the OMG Secret Clinton FB group, Memail me. I'm willing to FB friend any Mefites and invite you. I was invited to the group when it was 150,000 and now it's like 700,000.
posted by threeturtles at 6:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Coventry: I agree with you, bluecore, I just don't think telling him via NBC or verifying penetration of Russian systems was very smart.

The Russians got the message and are given the opportunity to think twice about messing with our election, all without a shot being fired. The ball is in their court.
posted by bluecore at 6:28 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Is this seriously where "normal" Republicans are getting their information in 2016?

Mmmmmdefine "normal" Republicans. The ones supporting the traitorous, incompetent, felony-sexually-assaulting, misogynistic tax-fraud for President?

Then, technically, yes.

Although "Drudge" is sometimes referred to as "CNN", "ABC", and "The New York Times".

Hey, Trump's done us some favors by forcing the mainstream press to show their shamlessness.
Chuck Todd! Up high! Down low!
too slow!
posted by petebest at 6:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Ah, faithless electors, they get a special side-eye from me.

When I was in high school the only faithless elector in the history of the Republic had been one of Nixon's, who did it because it was so very obvious it wouldn't affect the outcome and he was showboating that he could do it. My Civics professor told us about it all and then said, "and I'm not going to tell you his name because I'm not playing his crappy little game."

So when I took the SAT, guess what question was on there that I didn't know the answer to. Principles will punch you in the kidney sometimes.
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [23 favorites]

This HuffPost article gives a recent statement of Mr. Satiacum's views regarding his elector's position. I had hoped that he would either come around or resign if he could not come around but it sounds like he's doubling down on the matter. He states that it would be nice if he started a movement which caused a meaningful result at the electoral vote.

I understand that he's dedicated to Bernie Sanders (I believe he was elected at the Democratic caucus while Senator Sanders was still in the race.). I do get that. I only hope that there are no more faithless electors this electors in this paricular election. It's just too important.
posted by Silverstone at 6:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

bluecore: Yes, and the message they must have gotten was "Don't fuck with us, because we're already fucking with you." Really dumb.
posted by Coventry at 6:36 PM on November 4, 2016

... I'm pretty sure there have been dozens of faithless electors in the Presidential race. I don't know where the Nixon thing came from, maybe an urban legend type of deal?
posted by Justinian at 6:40 PM on November 4, 2016

Let me say just this, "Cotton candy accident, rather than random wind blown hay, baby."
posted by Oyéah at 6:40 PM on November 4, 2016

Is this seriously where "normal" Republicans are getting their information in 2016?

Drudge has been the lodestar of the Republican internet constellation for as long as I can remember. The only thing I can remember predating him is Usenet.

I've long maintained that Trump is just the inevitable consequence of the Southern Strategy. You build up a fascist base, don't be shocked when they choose overt fascism over your genteel panderers. The Drudge phenomenon though, that is truly sui generis, the original deformed protein that gave rise to the prion disease eating the brain of Dr Frankenstein's GOP.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 6:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Um, is it cool if we join the MeFi call team? Promise we've been dedicated lurkers for years! ;)

For emphasis: even if you're a lurker and haven't ponied up the $5 to join Metafilter you can join the call team for free and make a difference.

Please make a difference.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

Opinions and all that stuff Coventry, but personally I don't think it's even a little dumb and maybe well up on the list of better approaches that I can think of.
posted by Golem XIV at 6:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/national-enquirer-shielded-donald-trump-from-playboy-models-affair-allegation-1478309380
posted by acidic at 6:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

This ties in with the broader story about the Enquirer as both a Trump propaganda front and a way to bury stories with cash.

The number of women whose silence has bought by Trump, either through cash payments and buried stories or contractual NDAs (and I assume, direct threats from Michael Cohen, thug "attorney at law") is as significant an untold story of this election as the tax returns.
posted by holgate at 6:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

McClatchy/Marist and Fox just came out with two national live-caller landline-and-cellphone polls, taken 11/1-11/3. They are both C+1 and C+2 depending on whether you're looking at 4 way or 2 way race. These are the kind of polls I was asking for, now I kinda wish I hadn't been! Ugh.
posted by Justinian at 6:59 PM on November 4, 2016

Oh, and yeah, Melania worked while on a visitor visa, which is probably Liz Mair's bit of oppo.
posted by holgate at 7:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Here's a thing: Iraqi families seeing each other for the first time in two years after the fall of ISIS in Mosul.

Chills.
posted by Existential Dread at 7:02 PM on November 4, 2016 [36 favorites]

Folks. Beyonce is performing at a Clinton rally. In a pantsuit. Her backup dancer are in blue pantsuits.
posted by R343L at 7:02 PM on November 4, 2016 [64 favorites]

So, in updated witch news, I've come to Salem, Massachusetts [real] to cast a few particularly targeted spells.

1. Added to the list is James Comey, Ghouliani, all Steves, the faithless elector in Washington, and any newscaster grilling nothingburgers.
2. A healing and love spell for alleycat and family
3. Bey is on stage in Ohio and it is giving me life.
posted by Sophie1 at 7:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

Just looked up at the TV at the bar I'm at, and ABC (aka liberal media) is airing a Chandra Levy documentary.

Because, sure. Let's coincidentally reopen that wound 4 days before an election.
posted by schmod at 7:05 PM on November 4, 2016

OK, who else is going to wear a pantsuit on Tuesday for good luck???
posted by Sublimity at 7:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Kelrichen,

"(Um, is it cool if we join the MeFi call team? Promise we've been dedicated lurkers for years! ;)"

YES!

As the person who created the MeFites United call team in a fit of unmitigated happiness-to-be-a-MeFite, I officially give you permission, blessings, and welcome!

Please join!

And welcome to Metafilter!
posted by kristi at 7:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Sublimity: I am in a facebook group called National Pantsuit Day. So, uh, yeah. Though I really just have a suit-suit (Saint Harridan, men's style cut for women).
posted by R343L at 7:07 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hey, alleycat01, how are you doing? Sending warm thoughts to you and your Election Thread baby! <3
posted by stolyarova at 7:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

In case you're interested, here's a Hawaii Civil Beat interview with a number of Hawaii people for Trump. Of particular interest are the white people talking about blocking immigration. The white people in Hawaii. Also, abortion and actual genuine nonsense figures heavily into their reasoning.
posted by Joey Michaels at 7:10 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

OK, who else is going to wear a pantsuit on Tuesday for good luck???

I have an exam on Tuesday, and it's probably going to be about 80 degrees, but I'm totally considering it...

I don't want to talk about how I'm in here instead of studying my ass off
posted by Defying Gravity at 7:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Folks. Beyonce is performing at a Clinton rally. In a pantsuit. Her backup dancer are in blue pantsuits.

Hold up. Beyonce's wearing pants?!
posted by palomar at 7:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

The 13 year old accuser in the rape case has (again) dropped the lawsuit. Some people will argue that's because she was afraid and was receiving threats. Some will argue that it's because it was always baseless. But in any case its over and it was likely always going to end this way which is why it never gained traction in the press.
posted by Justinian at 7:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Mr. Trump’s relationship with Mr. Pecker . . . is well-documented.

Mmmm.
posted by petebest at 7:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Yep, pants.
posted by R343L at 7:13 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

Reading the tea leaves I think we need to sub in Nevada for New Hampshire on the Clinton map. Once again a bunch of old white people need to be saved from themselves. Go Nevada.
posted by Justinian at 7:13 PM on November 4, 2016

Jon Ralston says likely record 50k+ day in Clark County. That's Las Vegas. Cha-ching.
posted by Justinian at 7:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm in northern Nevada and literally all the precious old ladies in my yoga class are With Her. We had a little huddle after Elizabeth Warren was here the other day. <3
posted by stolyarova at 7:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

Rachel Maddow just made a drink on air. I completely understand.
posted by xyzzy at 7:15 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

The 13 year old accuser in the rape case has (again) dropped the lawsuit.

She apparently talked to Daily Mail today and even did a photo shoot. (Warning, graphic descriptions of rape)
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:15 PM on November 4, 2016

I keep a yahoo mail account specifically for e-commerce accounts so my real email isn't cluttered with marketing crap. I don't sign up for anything political using it, ever. Last week I looked in the spam folder of it, and over the past month the typical garbage of pr0n and v1agra ads were replaced with (legitimate) emails from the Trump campaign. It's just a theory, but I think the Trump strategy of targeting voters is literally identical to a shotgun spammer. This is a super bad strategy, so I hope the theory is correct.

So much for the "value" in a 13m email "database". I need to check my honeypots.

Giant Trump Pence sign update: I was driving so could only make out the f-word in one corner, but the rest of one side was scribbled over in silvery spray paint by some unhappy and untalented tagger last night.
posted by tilde at 7:18 PM on November 4, 2016

Xyzzy - Rachel makes a drink every Friday!
posted by Sophie1 at 7:18 PM on November 4, 2016

She does?! I have never seen her do it before. I have heard her talk about drinking quite a bit though.
posted by xyzzy at 7:21 PM on November 4, 2016

I noticed today someone had put a handdrawn "Thank You FBI" sign under their Trump/Pence sign.

I worry about Florida.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:21 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Folks. Beyonce is performing at a Clinton rally. In a pantsuit. Her backup dancer are in blue pantsuits.

Pictures or it didn't happen (tho the picture is my head is amazing!)
posted by danapiper at 7:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

I linked to one! There are probably a million on twitter now. :)
posted by R343L at 7:24 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

So the one Trump-supporting relative I have left shared a video today captioned "VLADIMIR PUTIN APPEARS ON TV TO TALK ABOUT HOW BAD HILLARY CLINTON IS".

I am officially out of Evens.
posted by mmoncur at 7:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

...and you thought we'd WON the Cold War against Russia...
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

The AP just broke a Melania immigration story.

The documents obtained by the AP show she was paid for 10 modeling assignments between Sept. 10 and Oct. 15, during a time when her visa allowed her generally to be in the U.S. and look for work but not perform paid work in the country. The documents examined by the AP indicate that the modeling assignments would have been outside the bounds of her visa.

I don't actually care about her illegal employment. As usual, it's the hypocrisy and lack of empathy for others that rubs me the wrong way.
posted by xyzzy at 7:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [45 favorites]

Junot Diaz for Voto Latino: "All of us must be free or none"
posted by frumiousb at 7:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

Folks. Beyonce is performing at a Clinton rally. In a pantsuit. Her backup dancer are in blue pantsuits.

This probably deserves its own post, but I'm too hesitant to read any commentary about the whole thing to make that post.

Did you see Beyonce's and the Dixie Chicks's performance of Beyonce's 'Daddy Lessons' at the CMAs? First off, it's awesome. Second off, remember that the Dixie Chicks were blacklisted from radio in 2003 when Natalie Maines said, to an audience in London, "Just so you know, we’re on the good side with y’all. We do not want this war, this violence, and we’re ashamed that the President of the United States is from Texas."

For that comment -- that comment -- the Dixie Chicks lost radio airplay and received many, many death threats. (By the way, if you haven't seen the documentary about the fallout from that -- Shut Up and Sing -- I highly recommend it.)

Anyway, thirdly, towards the end of the CMA Daddy Lessons performance, Beyonce and the Chicks took a little onstage-walkabout that both gave the horn section some time to solo, and also allowed for a set change, and then they marched down stage, in the audience's and camera's face, and they mashed in the hook and the kicker verse to the Dixie Chicks' own song, "Long Time Gone." The lyrics of that verse -- which is directed at contemporary country music and its stars:

They sound tired but they don't sound Haggard,
They've got money but they don't have Cash.
They got Junior but they don't have Hank.
I think, I think, I think, the rest is,
A long time gone....

[WaPo covered it. Like I said, I don't want to read the fallout, so I don't know who else has written about it.]

Anyway, the Dixie Chicks and Beyonce basically went onstage at the CMAs and said Fuck You to the CMAs.

So fourthly, could they be the supergroup that plays at the inauguration, please???

I'm still anxious about whose inauguration it's going to be, but my point remains. I want them to play regardless of who's sworn in.
posted by mudpuppie at 7:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [84 favorites]

So when I took the SAT, guess what question was on there that I didn't know the answer to. Principles will punch you in the kidney sometimes.

What the hell kind of SAT was that?
posted by leotrotsky at 7:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [30 favorites]

The Russia thing has sparked some weird discussions on Facebook, and some other places I've seen, among liberal acquaintances. There is a lot of one off comments about restarting the cold war, or what year is this anyway and the like, while among conservatives there is talk about Russia being dangerous and suggestions that the US should avoid any sort of confrontational talk. It's something of an odd paradigm that seems to be at least minimally affecting potential voters, where the desire is one of heavy avoidance of any involvement outside the US borders.

This can make Trump seem strangely more appealing because of his outspoken admiration for Putin. Since it seems apparent that he would capitulate to Russian interests, which, one might then assume, would keep the US out of harm's way, but at the cost of putting many other countries and people in harm's way. In this view, a Trump presidency could, potentially, make the US safer from nuclear attack as we'd be effectively siding with most of the other nuclear powers that might reasonably attack us, while also making it perhaps more likely the US could use nuclear weapons against a weaker nation due to Trump being Trump. It's an eerie look at the kind of foreign policy I think a lot of people are looking for, where dictators elsewhere can have something like free reign as long as they don't threaten the US.

One can see the appeal in this, but also see how it fits the xenophobic attitude and general feeling of inchoate fear that is a constant underpinning to so much of our modern society. I'm not sure anyone has a good plan to fix this, or if there is even a sensible plan possible to account for the mix of feelings involved, but it is sobering to try and project out what this might suggest about future elections and future involvement with the rest of the world.
posted by gusottertrout at 7:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

I grew up during the Cold War. I was one of the last students, in a state run program, to learn real skills, because Ronald Reagan, not satisfied with decimating the Actors Union, decided that he would create the Welfare Queen, and further kill our society with his horrible views of what he apparently thought would be a good Bedtime for Bonzo.

Come on. This is pure misogyny. i remember Geraldine Ferraro. God, how much they hated her!

I voted TWO WEEKS AGO. I VOTED FOR HILLARY. For fuck's sake. Me and my 13 Revolutionary War ancestors, and my Warren Mayflower ancestors are all rolling in their graves, man. Vote with your conscience, to be sure, but by God, as a Goddess in Maine: I urge you: VOTE AGAINST TRUMP.
posted by Marie Mon Dieu at 7:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

I know from these threads that Joy Reid has been kicking it, but this Twitter post kicks it beyond. Has she been this badass through the entire election, or is she kicking it up a notch here at the end? I admit I neither watch TV news or follow Twitter particularly regularly, but she seems on a tear.
posted by mollweide at 7:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

A Militia Gets Battle Ready for a ‘Gun-Grabbing’ Clinton Presidency

If these guys were brown they'd be in a CIA black site already
posted by theodolite at 7:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

The fundamental question about Trump and pageants and models (and tangentially, Melania as a model) is whether there's any reason to believe that standard operating practices didn't apply around Trump. Dodgy visa status, flophouses with extortionate rent extracted from fees, young women contractually obliged to show up at parties or as table decoration to seal business deals. Given the associations that Trump had at the time, and all that's public about Trump, I doubt that very much.

Anyway, it's clearly too hot for the press to handle, despite being led in that direction by campaign operatives. Which may be fitting, because it was tolerated (in bipartisan fashion) along with everything else about Trump that was tolerated when he was NYC's tabloid court jester, deflecting attention from the city's actual hobnobbing charity gala billionaires. "There must have been a moment, at the beginning, were we could have said -- no. But somehow we missed it."
posted by holgate at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Dixie Chicked - to be unjustly castigated and boycotted for exercising one's right to have a opinion about the political, economic or cultural death spiral the US is currently in.
posted by Mitheral at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Don't skip by acidic's link to the Wall Street Journal blockbuster there -- Trump's friends at the National Enquirer paid $150,000 to hush up a story about Trump's affair with a Playboy Bunny of the Year (while he was married to Melania).

Technically, they purchased the lifetime rights to her story for $150K and then never published it.
posted by msalt at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

R343L: " Beyonce is performing at a Clinton rally. In a pantsuit. Her backup dancer are in blue pantsuits."

Ah, so it appears the Beyonces have been activated. The Beyhive is a go. Repeat: Beyhive is a go.
posted by mhum at 7:53 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Beyonce and the Chicks took a little onstage-walkabout that both gave the horn section some time to solo

The horn section was Too Many Zooz (previously). They are awesome in their own right.
posted by peeedro at 7:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I don't actually care about [Melania Trump's] illegal employment. As usual, it's the hypocrisy and lack of empathy for others that rubs me the wrong way.

You may not care, but this story -- that Trump married an "illegal" immigrant who was taking good jobs away from hard-working, gorgeous American women -- has real potential to discourage his base from voting IMHO.
posted by msalt at 7:55 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

I'm a couple hundred comments behind and possibly the election has exploded in the interim but Y'ALL THE ELECTION THREAD IS HAVING A BABY.

So exciting
posted by gerstle at 7:56 PM on November 4, 2016 [36 favorites]

Not that her citizenship will end up being revoked, but I hope he spends the weekend having to defend his hypocrisy. And one oppo drop on Melania, another on him cheating on Melania. Saturday android twitter might be interesting.

@JoyAnnReid:
Guest on @TheLastWord just said Melania Trump working unauthorized in the U.S. could jeopardize her citizenship today. Wow.
posted by chris24 at 7:56 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

real potential to discourage his base from voting IMHO

But is it too late? Will it influence many voters at this point?
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:58 PM on November 4, 2016

A few comments deleted. Sorry, if Rick Astley is going to be in this election he needs to go through the primary process like the rest of us.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [79 favorites]

I grew up during the Cold War. I was one of the last students, in a state run program, to learn real skills, because Ronald Reagan, not satisfied with decimating the Actors Union, decided that he would create the Welfare Queen, and further kill our society with his horrible views of what he apparently thought would be a good Bedtime for Bonzo.

Come on. This is pure misogyny.

You're misunderstanding me I think, I'm not supporting the ideas, or advocating much of anything, just elaborating some trends that seem present and unexpected. Those former Reaganite types are now looking at Putin as a role model over on the right, while on the left some are expressing their own concerns about potential involvements. It isn't about who to vote for, as we've covered, that's clearly and obviously Clinton, but what it might suggest for her presidency and a popular US perspective going forward.
posted by gusottertrout at 8:00 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

this story -- that Trump married an "illegal" immigrant who was taking good jobs away from hard-working, gorgeous American women -- has real potential to discourage his base from voting IMHO
His "base" would never resent anything unethical or illegal he's done... they would only ENVY him and hope that having someone like him in the White House would open things up for them to do things equally crappy. That's how a "Great Again" America would be for millions of mostly-white, mostly-male Americans. Remember 'Be Like Mike'? They WANT to Be Like Donald, or maybe even Be Like Vladimir and they need to be slapped down just as much as Donald needs to...
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

But is it too late? Will it influence many voters at this point?

Diehard Breitbarters? No. Traditional suburban Republican women who were already feeling squidgy about him, and "Reagan Democrats" who are super mad about foreigners taking jobs? Yeah, I think so. So maybe especially in the Upper Midwest.
posted by msalt at 8:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Existential Dread's link to the video of the families reunited is so worth watching because of the reminder of what matters is a father exiled by war gazing at his little daughter after two years and saying through tears "she is worth the whole world." It's pretty much the antidote to anything Trumpish.
posted by dorothyisunderwood at 8:05 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Yeah, the idea that Trump supporters would care about Melania's work status suggests they care about immigration, when what they actually care about is race.
posted by Bookhouse at 8:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [44 favorites]

I think this tweet was engineered in a lab to infuriate Trump...(this is in Nevada, btw)
@RalstonReports
They just extended voting hours at a Mexican supermarket to 10 PM. Close to 1,000 voters in line. If you have a panic button GOP, find it.
posted by acidic at 8:07 PM on November 4, 2016 [56 favorites]

is it too late? Will it influence many voters at this point?

Just getting emails off the front page would be nice
posted by shothotbot at 8:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Our immigration laws are very punitive. Even inadvertent visa violations or misunderstandings can result in completely absurd penalties like losing your citizenship decades later.
posted by humanfont at 8:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

has real potential to discourage his base from voting IMHO.

Nope, if I may for purposes of example be possessed by a Trump supporter for a moment:

"NOW CLINTON AND THE LIBRUL MEDIA ARE ATTACKING POOR MELANIA! IT'S A CONSPIRACY! EVRYONE KNOWS SHE'S AMERICAN BORN AND BREAD! OR AT LEAST SHES DEFINITELY NOT MUSLIM OR MEXICAN, LOOK AT HER SKIN! BESIDES, WHO CARES ABOUT HER, TRUMP WILL PROBABLY GET A NEW WOMAN WHEN HE'S PRES ANYWAY!"

We're not exactly dealing with rational people who are going to change their mind at the first whiff of hypocrisy at this point.
posted by mmoncur at 8:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Ah, so it appears the Beyonces have been activated. The Beyhive is a go. Repeat: Beyhive is a go.

Here’s what we already knew, from Jones’s last discussion with hilariously crazy homophobe pastor James David Manning of the ATLAH church in Harlem

Oh wow, Pastor Manning! That kook has had it in for Obama since 2008 (cw: a lot of disturbing racist comments that are kinda funny if you're in the right state of mind).
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:10 PM on November 4, 2016

He will face a $1000 fine as his only consequence.

Well, $1000 and being fucking finished forever with whomever selected him in the first place. That could be a devastating move to your reputation and network, limiting your ability to get any help with any thing ever. again. Guess he's betting it's worth it for whatever he's getting out of it.
posted by ctmf at 8:10 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

could jeopardize her citizenship today.

"Enforce the laws." It's a big could: that shit just doesn't get enforced in cases like this. And as oneswellfoop suggests, white women aren't really immigrants to Trumpkins, even if they're being shipped over to be chattel for rich businessmen.
posted by holgate at 8:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

LeBron James is campaigning with Hillary in Cleveland on Sunday.
And of course she just had Jay-Z and Beyonce perform a Get Out the Vote concert in Cleveland.

We believe in you Ohio! (or at least Cleveland still rocks)
posted by airish at 8:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

Clark County is over 50k today in early vote. VEGAS BABY.
posted by Justinian at 8:13 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

finished forever with whomever selected him in the first place.

And that's not even counting direct retaliation, or threats thereof. I'm betting that's why the Republican elector quickly shut his pie hole and quit. Wouldn't put it past the Trump campaign to make a mobster movie style phone call immediately.
posted by ctmf at 8:15 PM on November 4, 2016

Well, $1000 and being fucking finished forever with whomever selected him in the first place. That could be a devastating move to your reputation and network, limiting your ability to get any help with any thing ever. again. Guess he's betting it's worth it for whatever he's getting out of it.

Satiacum is a Native American and is protesting the lack of concern over Native American affairs, so he's both got a legit grudge against government and probably isn't too concerned over losing his standing given how little Native Americans have in US society. That Clinton is his target strikes me as misguided personally, but the place he's coming from is hard to deny.
posted by gusottertrout at 8:16 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

LeBron James is campaigning with Hillary in Cleveland on Sunday.
And of course she just had Jay-Z and Beyonce perform a Get Out the Vote concert in Cleveland.

Wow, Ohio is really making Clinton go the extra mile for supporting the Cubs.
posted by gusottertrout at 8:18 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

President Trump will just give Melania a first-day Presidential Pardon, right after Chris Christie because he's needed to work on Transition duties.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Couple comments deleted. Let's keep it cool in here; people are tense but we don't need to go after each other.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:24 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

One point that Stuart Stevens makes -- which is legit -- is that if Melania entered the US on a B-1/2 with the intent of working, that's straight up visa fraud. You can enter on a B visa if you're investigating work opportunities without being compensated, but not if you're doing paid work, or even compensated in kind. Intent's hard to prove in those cases -- though she was under some kind of contract within a week of arriving in the US -- and again, that was (and perhaps still is) S.O.P. for the modelling business. But, still.
posted by holgate at 8:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Are Facebook video view counts legit? This random stream of the Bey/Jay-Z concert from a FOX affiliate in Atlanta has been viewed 2.5 million times. And that wasn't the only stream.
posted by acidic at 8:31 PM on November 4, 2016

What the hell kind of SAT was that?

The kind colleges use to decide whether they're interested in you or not. It's not a trick question.
posted by Bringer Tom at 8:32 PM on November 4, 2016

The kind colleges use to decide whether they're interested in you or not. It's not a trick question.

The regular SAT only tests math, verbal, and writing, not historical knowledge; however there are also SAT subject tests which test science, languages, and history.

No need to get all salty about it. Not everyone took or even knows about the subject SATs and of course it would be baffling for there to be a history question on the regular SAT.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

SecretAgentSockpuppet: "In all those years, my husband has never voted, because he says it doesn't matter in Texas, the incumbents will always win, and Texas hasn't gone Dem since before LBJ."

PEDANTRY: Carter won Texas in '76.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:36 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

@steveschale:
So 879k people voted in Dade in the 2012 Presidential

648k have voted in 2016 with 3 days of EV & EDay yet to go.
posted by chris24 at 8:38 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Well, $1000 and being fucking finished forever with whomever selected him in the first place.

My HS teacher made it clear that the Nixon rogue elector was just trying to get his name in the history books, and it offended him to play the little fuck's crappy game. Electors are generally medium fry in the local political scene, somewhere between school board member and state district rep, for whom it is a bit of a privilege but also all it gets you is a very small fine print mention in a very thick book in the history archives. But being a faithless elector, well yes that burns all your bridges with the local poli set but on the other hand you probably aren't ever headed to Congress yourself anyway and your mention in those history books will be so much more prominent. Unless my Civics teacher wrote them.
posted by Bringer Tom at 8:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

I apologize for calling that guy a "soulless cretin." That's language I usually only use alone in the car. Clearly it may be more nuanced than that. But it still seems to me to be subverting the will of the people and that's frustrating as hell to me.
posted by thebrokedown at 8:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just to be clear - there were plenty of faithless electors prior to any Nixon election.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Remember when Jan Brewer said Hispanics don't get out and vote?

Arizona leads nation in early-voting surge by Latinos

"As of Oct. 30, nine days before the Nov. 8 election, 13 percent of the early ballots cast in Arizona came from Latino voters, up from 11 percent at the same point prior to the 2012 presidential election and from 8 percent in 2008.

The increase from 2012 to 2016 is the largest increase in early voting by Latinos in any state, according to statistics compiled by Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups.

Nevada and Colorado have had the second- and third-largest increases in Latino early voting, according to the Catalist data, based on 37 states that have reported early-voting results.

Data tabulated by Arizona's Democratic Party showed an even bigger increase in early voting by Latinos in Arizona, from 6.2 percent in 2012 to nearly 12 percent through Nov. 1. The data is based on Hispanic surnames."
posted by chris24 at 8:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [18 favorites]

it still seems to me to be subverting the will of the people and that's frustrating as hell to me.

For what it's worth, I agree and don't support his choice at all, even though I can see where he's coming from.
posted by gusottertrout at 8:44 PM on November 4, 2016

3.5hr wait in Tempe, AZ; "the voters shouldn't have waited until the last minute to show up."

There will be the usual postmortem about this shit, and nothing will happen unless it is made to happen. The US simply does not have free and fair elections in states where minority votes are decisive.
posted by holgate at 8:47 PM on November 4, 2016 [20 favorites]

Some places more than others, though. From Jon Rolston:

"We will not turn people away," Election Dept spox tells me, saying voting places will stay open as long as it takes.

posted by Justinian at 8:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Guys, make sure you're checking the Ralston (NV) and Schale (FL) Twitter feeds. They are losing their minds right now at the Hispanic voter turnout, totally unexpected levels.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on November 4, 2016 [15 favorites]

Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout

"So far, Latino voting in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina is significantly up from 2012"

Lots of good detail as well.
posted by chris24 at 8:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hrm, looking it up it's clear that Roger L. MacBride is the faithless elector of 1972 I didn't know to put on that national college admissions test. I suppose it might have been the ACT rather than the SAT, but since I made the highest score in my state on the ACT in that testing cycle it seems unlikely that I would have missed a question like that. Then again it was 35 years ago and at my age you can feel the neurons dying, so who knows.

There was something about MacBride that Prof Johnson thought was noteworthy and stupid and that some testing company thought we should have been taught about. Looking over the FairVote page on faithless electors, I'm frankly a little puzzled as to why it was obviously considered so important.
posted by Bringer Tom at 8:55 PM on November 4, 2016

I'm pretty sure all those Latino voters in Florida are there to vote for Trump. He told me me so on the teevee.
posted by Justinian at 8:55 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

@steveschale:
"On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.

That's literally nuts."
posted by chris24 at 8:56 PM on November 4, 2016 [28 favorites]

Sarah Palin will join Donald Trump on the campaign trail in the final days before election day in two key states, Michigan and North Carolina, the Daily Beast reports.

So, we can color those two in for Clinton, then.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:56 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

Blast from the past, Eminem's 2004 Mosh Video. Times have changed since then, but not enough.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

The LV screen is in tatters.
posted by holgate at 8:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

Uh, this post is tagged "HilaryClinton," and there's no one with that name running in the election.
posted by miguelcervantes at 8:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

From an editor of the conservative Weekly Standard.

@jpodhoretz:
This is very, very big. If Latino vote up this much in Fla and continues so until Election Day, Trump's dead
posted by chris24 at 8:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

I'm catching Hardball on the rerun. Does anyone at all believe Ghouliani when he tells Chris Matthews that the big bombshell secret he was crowing about two days before the Comey letter involved a speech he was going to give about ad buys? Because I sure as shit don't.
posted by xyzzy at 9:03 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

@HeerJeet:
Hispanic voters have been the sleeping giant of the American electorate. Trump has awakened that giant. We'll see the consequences now.

@HeerJeet: What if ... the missing white voters turn out to be missing Hispanic voters?
posted by chris24 at 9:04 PM on November 4, 2016 [35 favorites]

LATimes, jscalzi (mefi's own): Dystopias are fantastic in fiction. But do you really want to live in one?

Dystopias: A great place to be a tourist. Not a great place to be a permanent resident.

Which brings us to this presidential election.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:07 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

Dystopias: A great place to be a tourist. Not a great place to be a permanent resident.

Oddly enough, that's how many people I know describe California.
posted by Bringer Tom at 9:09 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Uh, this post is tagged "HilaryClinton," and there's no one with that name running in the election.

Shut it down folks. We lost on a technicality. #maga
posted by dis_integration at 9:11 PM on November 4, 2016 [19 favorites]

Today at work I had a totally unexpected moment with a fellow hospice nurse who told me he was pro Trump (because foundation innuendo--there *must* be something there) and for a second I was frozen and freakishly frightened and then I remembered all of the things I learned from MeFi and I was able to make a fairly calm reasonable case for humanity and sanity without just freezing like I usually do when confronted with conflict. And of course I didn't change his mind, but it felt so good to be able to channel y'all and know you were out there. Thank you.
posted by eggkeeper at 9:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [81 favorites]

If there is a 'hidden voters group' missed by the pollsters, they are Latinx with some other not-white groups usually defined as 'not-likely' voters. And the better the news for Trumpy, the more the people scared shitless by him will make themselves heard. I think Nate Silver knows this year is going to be a big Fail for pollsters and he can't make adjustments for that.
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [9 favorites]

@davidplouffe, 8:05 PM - 24 Aug 2016

Each day of this campaign seems big and interesting and crazy but ultimately least suspenseful race since 1984. Forest and trees situation

@AriFleischer, 10:54 AM - 25 Aug 2016

Probably right.

via
posted by kirkaracha (staff) at 9:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

The bad news is: when the actual votes turn out to be much more pro-Hillary than the polls predict, Trumpy WILL scream "FIXED" and the militias will declare War. Be careful out there. Batten down your hatches. And DON'T PANIC. That's THEIR job.
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

ultimately least suspenseful race since 1984

Senate majority is a huge deal, given Republican intentions.
posted by Coventry at 9:19 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

@TexasAFLCIO:
Latino turnout in El Paso yielding 75-25 Clinton based on exit polls, @RepBetoORourke says. #TxAfLCIO #1u #TTEvents

@deaniemills:
In El Paso, turnout was up by 64% over 2012; it was up by close to 40% around Houston, Dallas, Austin & San Antonio.
posted by chris24 at 9:20 PM on November 4, 2016 [24 favorites]

I'm excited too but exit polls are crappy and self-selecting when done non-scientifically... which is generally the case. Otherwise we'd have President Kerry.
posted by Justinian at 9:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

(The turnout numbers are rock solid though!)
posted by Justinian at 9:22 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

Jon Ralston wins the Internet.

@RalstonReports:
"They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, will stop me from being president."
posted by chris24 at 9:26 PM on November 4, 2016 [76 favorites]

I looked at the pictures of the massive line in Nevada and started bawling. Then I read all of this other stuff about turn-out and who is turning out and kept crying.

I never thought I'd be crying at pictures of people voting in a US election. It was the straw that broke my wall of stress and it's just all blurging in a big mess.
posted by Jalliah at 9:27 PM on November 4, 2016 [49 favorites]

Nevada Dem candidate for Senate, who would be first Latina Senator.

@CatherineForNV:
On my way to Cardenas (Bonanza & Lamb).

This location is now open until 10pm for the last day of early vote. Come join us!
posted by chris24 at 9:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

With all the tumult of this terrible year, no one weeps for Merrick Garland: the Langdon Alger of the 2016 presidential election.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 9:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

Tim Kaine gave a speech in Spanish to a decent (but not huge) crowd in Phoenix on Thursday. It led on Telemundo News. The English-language media writeup was "well, that was a novelty" or "well, polls don't say it helped much."

I think Nate Silver knows this year is going to be a big Fail for pollsters and he can't make adjustments for that.

This week's polling has felt like a micro version of GI, GO; I'm starting to think the result may be a macro version. As nangar said upthread, arguably the best pollster in the US (whose home territory is Iowa) doesn't have a good model for Spanish-speaking respondents.

And yeah, the reaction to it -- especially on a big Hispanic vote -- is going to be ugly. I don't accept Noah Smith's bleak prediction that it leads to a cycle of disenfranchisement and distrust and Latin American-style dysfunction, but I do think that it sets up another cycle where the elected GOP refuses to believe that it is an endangered species because its range is being curtailed.

But hey, the NYT got to visit a radical extremist training camp in Georgia and made it look like fun fun gun gun camp with a token black guy.
posted by holgate at 9:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Now, come on. You don't even know if Garland enjoys puzzles.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:36 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

"If Trump loses, we shouldn’t downplay what nearly happened here. Once Trump is in the rearview mirror, this whole thing will be easy to laugh off. A lot of people will be tempted to tell the story as one of celebrity and media – of the wackiness of the “reality TV age” – rather than as the genuinely scary brush with fascism it really was.

So, a gentle reminder: Donald Trump is a racist authoritarian nationalist, and he’s going to win over 40% of the vote."

A little while ago I was asked to write a series of three columns about the US election for an Australian feminist online magazine. This is the last of them, trying to explain how Trump happened. I'm pretty sure I stole the "this is defeating fascism on easy mode" thing from someone here? And I definitely stole a lot of general insight, clarity, and snark. I haven't commented much, and I often read on a device where I can't even favourite(!), but these threads have been my lifeblood.

So thanks, MetaFilter. Only a few more days.
posted by Rumpled at 9:38 PM on November 4, 2016 [117 favorites]

@ClaraJeffery:
To sum up: In last 24 hours black EV turnout in NC and Fla seems to hitting/surpassing 2012.
Hispanic early voting in Fla and NV off charts
posted by chris24 at 9:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [22 favorites]

FL voters no one talking about--->
"other/mixed race"

284K voted early
5.5% share
40D-36NPA-24R
31.2% no voting history
57% low propensity

HOLY FUCKING SHIT. Sleeping fucking giant indeed.
posted by Talez at 9:40 PM on November 4, 2016 [48 favorites]

leotrotsky: What the hell kind of SAT was that?

Bringer Tom: The kind colleges use to decide whether they're interested in you or not. It's not a trick question.

Pretty sure the joke was "Principles (high school principals) will punch you in the kidney sometimes."
posted by ActingTheGoat at 9:40 PM on November 4, 2016

oneswellfoop: The bad news is: when the actual votes turn out to be much more pro-Hillary than the polls predict, Trumpy WILL scream "FIXED" and the militias will declare War. Be careful out there. Batten down your hatches. And DON'T PANIC. That's THEIR job.

You know, I'm about tired of militias. If they do declare war, I hope the government reacts accordingly. Take the revolution larpers at their word and give them some actual war. Let them see how it turns out.
posted by Mitrovarr at 9:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Donald Trump believes the United States can get $1 trillion in new roads — for free

Just another way Trump is planning to destroy America if he is elected.

FYI in our "moderately conservative" state, even the Chamber of Commerce opposing privatizing our public infrastructure, like roads, water, and sewer.

When the business community itself is opposing your supposedly business-friendly plan, you know it's a dumb idea . . .
posted by flug at 9:41 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

Come on Florida, let's get this thing called by the time your polls close! If the media is going to feed us a steady stream of horse race bullshit now, I want to spend all of election night watching them backpedal through it once it's obvious they missed the real story of the Latinx/female/non-white voting blocs flexing their muscle.

Also, TTTCS.
posted by strange chain at 9:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [23 favorites]

Wow:

@amychozick
Major--> Hillary reclaiming her "baked cookies" line from 1992. This on screen at Beyonce concert

@ErickFernandez
Hillary Clinton reciting Jay-Z bars from "My President is Black."

Is it possible we're witnessing some kind of Ultra-Giga Mecha Hillary D.G.A.F. Alpha Mode, Codename: Rodham X transformation like in the final episodes of a 1980s anime about giant fighting space robots? i may be a bit in my cups
posted by mhum at 9:42 PM on November 4, 2016 [124 favorites]

I think Nate Silver knows this year is going to be a big Fail for pollsters and he can't make adjustments for that.

This week's polling has felt like a micro version of GI, GO; I'm starting to think the result may be a macro version. As nangar said upthread, arguably the best pollster in the US (whose home territory is Iowa) doesn't have a good model for Spanish-speaking respondents.

Okay so am I right in thinking then that all of these early voting numbers are indicating that the polls could be quite off but in the good way? I don't trust my thinking skills right now.
posted by Jalliah at 9:43 PM on November 4, 2016 [8 favorites]

I think a lot about sitting in a dull USCIS office this spring to do the necessaries to renew my green card, when all around me were people who were starting their path to citizenship. (I have my reasons for not taking that route, rational and irrational: partly in a kind of daft solidarity with David Bowie, embracing the way that the US actually lets you live as a legal alien as long as you aren't a shithead; partly because I didn't want to take a spot in the processing line for someone with less privilege than me this damn year.)

They're the people who can stand for four hours to vote. They learned the language test. They learned the civics test. They took a number and waited their turn in beige offices in beige office parks. Citizens are citizens, but they earned it more than most.
posted by holgate at 9:45 PM on November 4, 2016 [46 favorites]

Jalliah, if Latinx turnout is up 50%, and 3/4 of them wouldn't have passed the likely voter screen? Oh yeah that's good.
posted by chris24 at 9:46 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

Yes, Jalliah, it's looking more and more like the infamous "Bradley Effect" will reverse itself here and become forever known as "The Trump Effect".

And I would think Deplorable Donald would more likely put it this way: "They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And I don't like the competition."
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:48 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

WaPo: Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:50 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

It's very Twitter, but "get me a one who looks at me the way Beyoncé looks at Hillary" is so real.
posted by holgate at 9:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [27 favorites]

holgate: Polling station fuckery always happens in AZ for all the usual reasons of voter suppression; but also because the GOP hates the fact that most felons get their voting rights automatically restored on the day of discharge (there is a separate process for multiple offenders).

I can always spot the retiree transplants because they are the ones you hear saying things like "I bet all the criminals are voting this time- they're not allowed to, you know."

They are half right... but it ain't the half they think.

Yes we voted- and yes we ARE allowed.
posted by Hiding From Goro at 9:53 PM on November 4, 2016 [57 favorites]

chris24: "@ClaraJeffery:
To sum up: In last 24 hours black EV turnout in NC and Fla seems to hitting/surpassing 2012.
Hispanic early voting in Fla and NV off charts"

Yeah, a reminder why the injunction blocking the NC voter roll purges is so big.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Jalliah, if Latinx turnout is up 50%, and 3/4 of them wouldn't have passed the likely voter screen? Oh yeah that's good.
posted by chris24 at 12:46 AM on November 5 [1 favorite +] [!]

Yes, Jalliah, it's looking more and more like the infamous "Bradley Effect" will reverse itself here and become forever known as "The Trump Effect".

And I would think Deplorable Donald would more likely put it this way: "They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And I don't like the competition."
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:48 AM on November 5 [1 favorite +]

This would be so amazing. I'm overwhelmed with how amazing it would be. Like full on restore faith in humanity type thing.
posted by Jalliah at 9:54 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

Hugs, Jalliah. Thanks for your concern about us floundering lunks down here.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:57 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ralston has been careful to hedge, but he clearly expects Dems to take NV POTUS vote, the Senate seat, CD-3 and CD-4 (those are both pickups), and to retake both statehouses. That's...that's a pretty good haul.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:58 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

I don't trust my thinking skills right now.

Neither do I, but I trust people who have kept an eye on voter turnout in their respective states for a long time, and they seem gobsmacked by what they're seeing, both on the ground and in the stats. And yeah, Harry Reid has one of the last old-school voting machines, and it looks like he converted it to run on solar power this year.
posted by holgate at 9:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

I think these two things are related.

@js_edit:
By the time the sun rises tomorrow, Trump will have lost Nevada.

@RalstonReports:
I hear Jesse Law, who is in charge of poll-watching for the NV GOP, has arrived at the Mexican market. Right on time.
posted by chris24 at 9:59 PM on November 4, 2016 [11 favorites]

New Yorker: Bernie Sanders’s Hard Fight for Hillary Clinton
posted by Chrysostom at 10:01 PM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]

"Ready for the election?"
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [4 favorites]

@HeerJeet:
In 2012 48% of Hispanics turned out to vote as against 66% of whites & 64% of blacks. Trump seems to be increasing Hispanic turnout

@HeerJeet:
If you get Hispanics voting near the numbers of non-hispanic whites & non-hispanic blacks, there will be huge shift in USA politics
posted by chris24 at 10:06 PM on November 4, 2016 [17 favorites]

One of the most powerful things about voting and democracy is that we each get one vote. Trump with his (fake) billions, his 500 days campaigning, his wall-to-wall media coverage, has the exact same amount of vote as one of the 1,000 people standing in line for hours tonight at that grocery store in Nevada. On Tuesday, each of those voters whom he has spent over a year disparaging matters just as much as he does, and together they matter so much more.

I am so excited.
posted by sallybrown at 10:08 PM on November 4, 2016 [81 favorites]

I'm watching Nevada from Hong Kong, sitting at a desk in my office with tears in my eyes. Even if Trump wins, this bell will not be un-rung.
posted by frumiousb at 10:12 PM on November 4, 2016 [31 favorites]

I really liked this film by Daveed Diggs for millennials about the election. You know he's serious when he uses his slow speaking voice!
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 10:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [7 favorites]

You know, I'm about tired of militias. If they do declare war, I hope the government reacts accordingly. Take the revolution larpers at their word and give them some actual war. Let them see how it turns out.

I think it's a bunch of sound and fury, but I am personally less enthused by the prospect of increased domestic terrorism.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 10:14 PM on November 4, 2016 [1 favorite]

@RalstonReports:
"Current voter count in Clark with at least an hour left:

55K

Record keeps getting higher."

@Redistrict:
"For those not following, there is a Friday night massacre of Trump's NV prospects underway... "
posted by chris24 at 10:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [16 favorites]

I just read some tweets about people who have ordered pizza and sent it to the market in Nevada.
posted by Jalliah at 10:17 PM on November 4, 2016 [13 favorites]

I hear Jesse Law, who is in charge of poll-watching for the NV GOP, has arrived at the Mexican market. Right on time.

What's the bet this fucker is going to challenge every not-white voter he can to stretch the process out.
posted by Talez at 10:20 PM on November 4, 2016

It is quite something to think that Trump will be flying all the way to Reno and sleeping in his Vegas suite this weekend when Harry Reid has already baked a fucking "Nevada loser" cake for him and is ready to serve it on a silver platter.

I mean, given Harry Reid, he might actually get someone to deliver a real cake to TrumpVegas.
posted by holgate at 10:20 PM on November 4, 2016 [25 favorites]

I just read some tweets about people who have ordered pizza and sent it to the market in Nevada.

What a great idea! Are there more ways to help like this? This is probably unrealistic, but hell, I'd be happy to order something online and have it sent there ... somehow ...
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:22 PM on November 4, 2016

I'm also so very happy to see all the early and absentee voters in all states. If the ballots are properly secured and delivered to the proper people, none of the early/absentee voters have to witness or endure whatever the Republicans have in mind for election day shenanigans. These votes are in the bank, assuming proper handling of the ballots. I feel good about ballot handling in Nevada, though. I have no knowlege of the other states to form an opinion on how they will handle ballots and hope they will do as well.
posted by Silverstone at 10:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

I forgot Trump was going to be in Nevada.

I wonder if this is going to cause him to lose it, go off script, and say something extra stupid.
posted by Jalliah at 10:23 PM on November 4, 2016 [5 favorites]

I have never been prouder of my state than I am tonight. Battle-born, indeed.

Come and take it, Donnie.
posted by stolyarova at 10:24 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

What a great idea! Are there more ways to do this?

I don't know. It looks like the tweets were from people who lived there and knew what pizza places to order from.
posted by Jalliah at 10:25 PM on November 4, 2016

@josemacias8:
A crowd of 50 people waiting outside Cardenas Market. Cheering up the last people coming out from voting. Latino vote woke up #earlyvote [image]

@ProducerMcD:
Photos of people lined up to vote in the late hours of the night in Nevada are making me well up with tears. America can make you happy. [images]

@ProducerMcD:
Try and get past this wall, motherfucker.
posted by chris24 at 10:25 PM on November 4, 2016 [84 favorites]

I hope this serves as inspiration to Hispanic voters in other states, too, especially AZ. Stick it Jan Brewer, people!
posted by Chrysostom at 10:26 PM on November 4, 2016 [29 favorites]

This should make nationwide news, which in turn should inspire turnout in other states (I think rather than make people think it's all taken care of, it will make people want to take part).

"Immigrants: we get the job done!" (my one and only Hamilton quote in these election threads)
posted by sallybrown at 10:29 PM on November 4, 2016 [66 favorites]

Immigrants: we get the job done!

#lastthread
posted by Joey Michaels at 10:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [36 favorites]

There's more America in that parking lot tonight that there is in a thousand camo-clad AR-15-toting weekend warriors with Oakleys backwards on their fat potato heads
posted by Senor Cardgage at 10:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [130 favorites]

Obama won Nevada by 6.7% in 2012. Dems are about to match the early voting firewall he had then. And the 57,000 is 10,000 more than the last day of EV in 2012.

@RalstonReports:
57,000 voted as of 10 PM.

Now we wait for the tallies...

Dems could match 71K edge at end of 2012 early voting after this turnout tonight.
posted by chris24 at 10:33 PM on November 4, 2016

If everyone can, by some miracle, deliver on immigration reform, some of these new voters might come back to vote again in two years.
posted by zachlipton at 10:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [10 favorites]

Then we need to flip the senate.
posted by frumiousb at 10:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Early voting is awesome. Let's make sure everyone in our spheres of influence gets out and votes if they haven't. Landslide!
posted by Joey Michaels at 10:39 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

The "this" is the quote: "I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but what I decided to do was to fulfill my profession. -- Hillary Clinton"

To understand how wild this is for her to do this, make sure to read the "What it Took" article from Politico linked way, way upthread.

I was raised by a single working mom, and I turned 18 just in time to vote for Bill in '92. It's hard to articulate just how much Hillary has always reminded me of my mother -- who had to do it all on her own, and did, two kids and all. My mom worked her way up from welfare and the GI Bill (her own, not inherited benefits or whatever) to being a middle class tech professional. She got her graduate degree while I finished high school. And she took heat for her choices & constantly had society trying to make her feel like a bad mom all along the way. The truth was, she was the best mom most of my teachers and my childhood friends knew, and she was a boss, too.

So I remember people losing their fucking minds over the "stayed home and baked cookies" comment. Those words seemed perfectly natural and reasonable to me. Like it pissed me off that anyone had the gall to be offended, because fuck you, why should that even be expected of her? Or of any woman? And I remember people in the media losing their shit over Murphy Brown 'cause it showed a single woman raising a child on her own while pursuing a high-pressure career. That was only 1992.

Hell, on into 2000, I was still running into women in "liberal" Los Angeles who fully believed the best role a woman could have was that of stay-at-home wife & mother and that was a good and proper thing.

Obviously a Hillary victory means so, so much for women. Given her opponent, it means so much for all kinds of minorities. And it's shitty of straight white guys to make everything about themselves. But just between me & the blue? This shit is personal for me, too.

These assholes have been talking shit about my mom pretty much all my life, whether they realize it or not. I hope to God she wins, I hope it fucking hurts these jerks, and I hope they choke on their fucking cookies.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:44 PM on November 4, 2016 [118 favorites]

President Obama: FULL INTERVIEW | Real Time with Bill Maher
posted by kirkaracha at 10:51 PM on November 4, 2016 [12 favorites]

Donald Trump really thought he could insult Latinos and we'd just stand there and take it. Please, we are not @ChrisChristie.

--@TUSK81

Shade for days.
posted by zachlipton at 11:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [117 favorites]

okay, seriously guys, where did everybody go?
posted by pennypiper at 11:30 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

This should make nationwide news, which in turn should inspire turnout in other states

It SHOULD, but will it? I've been having a tough time finding reputable sources that explain the significance of early voting in NV - specifically the Clark County firewall concept - in an easy-to-understand way. The best thing I could find was a Reddit post. There haven't been many news stories about it so far. Maybe that will change now, but idk.
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:31 PM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]

Wow, that Obama interview with Bill Maher is really good. It's a 35-minute in-depth conversation between two intelligent people. President Obama is a wise and thoughtful person.
I literally cannot image Donald Trump being able to come off anywhere nearly as well. Obama speaks in paragraphs.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:32 PM on November 4, 2016 [14 favorites]

It's 7:30 in the morning in Prague right now. I realize with daylight savings that means it won't be until 6am Wednesday morning that the east coast hits midnight.

It's going to be a weird morning to wake up to the election still going on.

Like 50 times weirder than the time I watched the Super Bowl live on a Monday morning in Melbourne
posted by mrzarquon at 11:33 PM on November 4, 2016 [3 favorites]

We Are The Wall

definitely didn't shed a tear or anything at this nope nope
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:35 PM on November 4, 2016 [67 favorites]

In El Paso, turnout was up by 64% over 2012; it was up by close to 40% around Houston, Dallas, Austin & San Antonio.

You know what we call those parts of Texas? The Democratic parts. (Also not-coincidentally, the not-as-white parts.)
posted by threeturtles at 12:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Daniel Dale of the Toronto Star tweeting from Trump's Hershey, PA rally last night:

John, 67, says if Trump loses he'll do civil disobedience like blocking the drive-thru of McDonald's where illegal immigrants work.

I give him 5 minutes before he caves to the pressure of mcnugget-starved commuters pounding their car horns.
posted by duffell at 12:07 AM on November 5, 2016 [34 favorites]

I'm not sure if this has been posted before, but Be You Y Vota has 733k views on the Being Latino Facebook page. The video it's based on is embedded here: Meet Sarai González, the inspiring Tica in Bomba Estéreo's "Soy Yo" video.
posted by Wobbuffet at 12:17 AM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

There ought to be awards for people like Daniel Dale, Katy Tur, Sopan Deb and Jenna Johnson on the roving Trump beat, and David Fahrenthold on office duty (to go with his Pulitzer). Or just a very long holiday. And therapy.

Can we GoFundMe it or something? Give them a month on a quiet Caribbean island?
posted by holgate at 12:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Ralston: "Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP."

Trump's got a rally in CO after Reno, but he's going to spend most of the day tomorrow on his plane either knowing that he's been schlonged in the west, or having Kellyanne pretend otherwise.
posted by holgate at 12:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I keep telling you: Fucking. Landslide.

I want to take a moment to highlight a comment NoxAeternum made a couple of months ago:

Here's some more food for thought: in my own lifetime, California was a lot more swingy, to the point that one could consider it to be more Republican leaning (after all, it did produce Nixon and Reagan!) So what the hell happened?

Well, back in the early 90s, the CAGOP started to see demographic shifts erode the position of strength they had in the 80s. So the Republican governor of the time, Pete Wilson, decided that pursuing nativist policies would re-energize the GOP electorate. And they did, for a bit.

They also made it clear to minorities in the state that they either hung together, or hung separately. By the time you get to 2000, the state was a lot less white, and CA minorities were a lot less inclined to vote for a party that treated them as the enemy. And thus, CA became part of the "blue wall".

Things change. Don't just assume politics is static, because it isn't.

As a Latino and a Californian, I saw this happen firsthand. The early 90s were fucking awful time to be a child of immigrants in California. Our governor was on tv blaming immigrants for every hardship we faced, which was a really fucking scary and confusing for me and lots of other kids in immigrant communities. For the CAGOP, it was a working strategy in the short term: Pete Wilson won re-election in '94 by championing a a ballot initiative called Prop 187 denying our community education and healthcare.

It was the first time in American history that a state passed a law related to immigration. The resulting backlash lost California for the GOP for a generation.

As goes California, so goes the nation. There's a lot of rivalry among Latinos, but one thing that unites us is that we're proud people. What you are starting to see now nationwide is the result of GOP's deliberate strategy to insult us at every possible opportunity.

Expect us.
posted by joedan at 12:50 AM on November 5, 2016 [198 favorites]

I've always believed you Joedan. You're the person I thought of when I saw those pictures from Nevada. It's like watching Gandalf appear with the dawn.
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:55 AM on November 5, 2016 [50 favorites]

http://thetelegraph.com/news/91835/woman-admits-voting-for-late-husband-says-she-knew-he-wanted-to-vote-trump

Another Trump supporter commits voter fraud.
posted by miratime at 1:04 AM on November 5, 2016 [48 favorites]

(an election judge, no less!)
posted by miratime at 1:07 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Breitbart and InfoWars for five years.
Longer than that; the dude named Breitbart split off from Drudge's website in 2007 and died in 2012 (Drudge dates back 20 years) and I had a neighbor in an apartment building 15 years ago who had an "InfoWars" bumper sticker on his cheap car (I never spoke to him, obviously).
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:10 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Another Trump supporter commits voter fraud.
Obviously. Trump's Mirror applies to his followers too.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:12 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I know the thread has kind of moved on from the "What is the evidence that Russia is hacking American political players" question but I feel like I should still drop the link to the CrowdStrike report in here. It's full of a lot of code-level details about why they are pretty sure "Cozy Bear" and "Fancy Bear" hacked the DNC.

Also I want to say I did a GOTV shift earlier and was amazed to find that at least half the people I called have already early-voted. It sems like a sign of a well oiled campaign machine with a canny strategy, and a super motivated base, both of which give me a lot of hope. I'm going to early vote myself tomorrow -- hope the lines aren't too long because I'm bringing my 3 and 5 year old daughters.

I feel like this is history in the making, and when they are 83 and 85 and I am long gone, they will be telling this story. Hopefully to their grandaughters who want to be president, and not to inspire what's left of The Resistance.

I personally will always remember the hours and hours I spent staring at this blue message board on my phone, and it's gonna be a weirdly happy emotional memory that I will take with me for the rest of my life, of how scared I was this year, and how you guys made me feel less alone, and how much I have learned.
posted by OnceUponATime at 1:31 AM on November 5, 2016 [45 favorites]

Election sign update: I just saw some new signs pop up near my apartment: Gary Johnson. Also, I think they might be the first presidential election signs I've seen around here since the primaries. They're on an undeveloped commercial lot, so I suspect a guerrilla planting.
posted by ckape at 1:33 AM on November 5, 2016

I honestly don't know how you American MeFites are doing it. I'm paralysed with anxiety about Trump winning and I'm all the way in Australia.

I planned to take the day off from work, but instead I'll be getting a gynecological examination at around the time the results will come through.
posted by daybeforetheday at 1:49 AM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

Dixie Chicks - Landslide
posted by mikelieman at 1:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I've always believed you Joedan. You're the person I thought of when I saw those pictures from Nevada. It's like watching Gandalf appear with the dawn.

Seriously. Because of you, "Expect us" has become a phrase that makes me tear up instantly. Between that and Somos el Muro, my face is dripping like it just went through a car wash.
posted by palmcorder_yajna at 2:17 AM on November 5, 2016 [29 favorites]

Another election sign update: Within the last 48 hours, someone has planted about about half a dozen Jill Stein signs along one of our neighborhood arterials, so those visiting the Taco Bell drive-through will have the opportunity to think hard about People, Planet, and Peace while waiting for their Crunchwrap Supremes.

And wait they will, for it is a very, very slow, very, very stoned Taco Bell.
posted by palmcorder_yajna at 2:27 AM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

Tonight I talked to an old friend, who's been a shut-in for the past several years. He says he wasn't aware that he could vote for just the president.

My friend was going to take a pass on voting because he hadn't decided on everything on the ballot (we're in California). During our long talk tonight, he figured out how to send his ballot.
posted by goofyfoot at 2:27 AM on November 5, 2016 [35 favorites]

crickets ;-)
posted by pjmoy at 2:37 AM on November 5, 2016

This may be the most appropriate Election Year t-shirt design I've seen.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:45 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

So, remember yesterday morning, when endorsements from newspapers, magazines, and periodicals stood at 425 Clinton, 55 not endorsing, 18 anybody-but-Donald Trump, 12 Donald Trump, and 6 Gary Johnson? Well, that was yesterday! Time for an update!

Publications endorsing Hillary Clinton now stand at 447, an increase of 22. Major new additions include the Wilmington News-Journal (circulation 104,000), bringing her total endorsements with circulations above 100,000 to at least 79.

Still far behind in distant second, we have publications officially not endorsing anyone at 75, an increase of 20. A solid gain, true, but still outpaced by Hillary Clinton, and there'll be no making up a deficit of over 370 even if it wasn't losing ground.

"Anybody-but-Donald-Trump" has added three publications for a total of 21, with the major new addition of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which has a circulation of more than 300,000. Congratulations, anybody-but-Donald-Trump, that's a real coup, bringing your total >100,000 circulation endorsements to 11! (I slightly underestimated the number of large-circulation periodicals making this endorsement in my last post.) While it's true you're mired in a third place so low you can't even see second, which can't even see first, it's nice to see you making a real effort, anybody-but-Donald-Trump.

And well behind that third place we have Donald Trump at 13, adding only one publication. However, that publication is the Florida Times-Union, circulation 128,000, bringing his total endorsements from large papers up to 2. For those concerned by this, however, I feel that I should point out that the Miami Herald, the Orlando Sentinel, the Tampa Bay Times, and the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, each of which has a larger circulation than the Times-Union, have all endorsed Hillary Clinton (and so have five other, smaller Florida newspapers.) And I feel I should also point out, since I did not last time, that yes, one of his only 13 endorsements is the official organ of the KKK.

Gary Johnson remains static at 6, adding no endorsements to his total, and in fact no periodical has endorsed him since September 30. (One begins to wonder if the ones that did are starting to feel a little embarrassed about it.)

Finally, although I haven't mentioned it before now -- probably remiss of me, given the interest in him on this site -- Evan McMullin does have one endorsement, from the Provo Daily Herald in Utah.
posted by kyrademon at 3:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [37 favorites]

CNN: Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout.

The twist: Nevada isn't one of the three key states.
posted by mmoncur at 3:41 AM on November 5, 2016 [20 favorites]

Regrettably, this tally of newspaper endorsements only brings into focus just how irrelevant the entire Newspaper industry has become. In fact, Deplorable Donald's endorsement by the Official KKK paper may represent more actual votes than most of the largest papers in the survey. Then there's the Florida paper that published an APOLOGY to its readers for news coverage that was too critical of Trump. Sigh.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:42 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

The Economist has finally published their endorsement.
posted by Slothrup at 3:46 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

> "Regrettably, this tally of newspaper endorsements only brings into focus just how irrelevant the entire Newspaper industry has become."

Yes, but I am nonetheless grateful for any and every group that is willing to stand up en masse and say, this is not normal and this is not right.
posted by kyrademon at 4:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [21 favorites]

It also ain't right.
posted by progosk at 4:24 AM on November 5, 2016

My oh-for-fuck's-sake-o-tron is just about out of juice!
posted by farlukar at 4:41 AM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

CNN: Early voting data in 3 key states show spike in Latino turnout.

The twist: Nevada isn't one of the three key states.

Scene: Wavy screen - 2013

Mook1: GOP Autopsy's out. We need to mobilize black, latino, and woman voters.
Mook2: Let me go get my monkey's paw.
posted by sebastienbailard at 4:46 AM on November 5, 2016 [41 favorites]

You know what we call those parts of Texas?

Tejas!
posted by spitbull at 5:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

The Deplorable reaction to Nevada is pretty interesting-- some are despairing, some are insisting these voters are actually illegals (naturally), and some are confidently insisting that high numbers of Latinx voters is good news for Trump. I swear to you, they repeat their nonsense so confidently that sometimes I wonder if I am the one who is crazy.

I get that. Last night while following the Nevada news I ended up on a site where there were lots of comments about it being good for Trump and that so many Lantinx are for Trump and oh look at them all coming out for Trump it's wonderful. As I said up thread my thinking skills are so done and I know full well that my irrational side is making a strong showing and I thought 'Oh hey maybe they're right. How do we know all of these new people and amounts of people aren't there for Trump?" and I freaked out. But then again I also freaked out when I read he changed his hair yesterday.

And I KNOW that it's ridiculous but it's like I'm now in competition with myself and it is making me bonky. I don't like it at all because in general I''m usually very good in stressfu, scary and tense situations. Trying to focus on the silver lining though. Now I know that I am reacting this way I can figure out why this situation is so different and do something about it. That's all I got at this point.
posted by Jalliah at 5:34 AM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Because the Trump campaign is basically the Campaign of Gaslighting? It sucks that it works so well, even when we know better.
posted by miratime at 5:48 AM on November 5, 2016 [45 favorites]

Finally, although I haven't mentioned it before now -- probably remiss of me, given the interest in him on this site -- Evan McMullin does have one endorsement, from the Provo Daily Herald in Utah.

McMuffinMentum!
posted by leotrotsky at 5:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I finally got to do some phone banking!

My time zone doesn't match up well to US phone banking hours but this weekend I was actually home at the right time. Thanks mobile provider for giving me unlimited free international calling.

I cannot recommend this highly enough. Many reasons:

The tool makes it so easy. You get plenty of time to read through the script and prepare and practice before you make the call. The script is bolded in the right parts and the key information you're supposed to ask for is really clearly highlighted.
All the voters I spoke to were strong Hillary supporters. They were happy and excited to talk to me.
You get to help people develop their plan for how to vote. Just about the most important thing you can do! It's very satisfying to know you're helping in a concrete way.
My calls help the overall mefi call tally!
it is so, so satisfying and calming to do something tangible and productive to influence the outcome of this election. I have been in low level panic mode for months now. I've tried all sorts of things to keep that under control and making just a few dozen calls this morning was by far the most effective. Certainly better than my previous wine and whiskey strategy!

I'm looking forward to getting on the phones again tomorrow. It's a little addictive.

And thank you thank you thank you to all of you who are doing the in person door to door canvassing. It is so important and it's such a wonderful thing that you're giving of yourself to do.

May we all be as calm, collected and focussed as Hillary in these final few days.
posted by mosessis at 6:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [47 favorites]

I know it's somewhere in a past thread but could someone post the MeFite call group info and a brief synopsis as to what's required? I don't think I've seen it in the past couple thread (could be wrong because omg this year).
posted by JakeEXTREME at 6:19 AM on November 5, 2016

Democrats could wake up on this Latinx vote thing, too - consider that when people think they're really getting something, ie, getting not to be deported or targeted, they vote like hell. Democrats should put a lock on immigrant votes by...doing better for immigrants. The GOP isn't going to do it. If Democrats actually learn from this election, they will learn that there's huge untapped constituencies out there who are actually eager to vote if something real is on the table. This year the real thing is "no orange fascist please" but you know, if they put "real social change for snake people" and "real immigration reform" and "actual voting rights legislation" and "some kind of national control over racist police" on the table I bet they could keep turning out a lot of people even in less panic-inducing years.

The Democrats need to stop being so concerned with pandering to rich people because that's the GOP's thing. They need to develop their base and turn people out by actual policy actions.
posted by Frowner at 6:21 AM on November 5, 2016 [104 favorites]

joedan, I was thinking of you too. "Expect Us!!!"
posted by sallybrown at 6:24 AM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

I know it's somewhere in a past thread but could someone post the MeFite call group info and a brief synopsis as to what's required? I don't think I've seen it in the past couple thread (could be wrong because omg this year).

This comment by kristi explains.
posted by Wordshore at 6:26 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

There were some comments here about texting for HRC. Does anyone know if that's something you can sign up to do from home?
posted by amarynth at 6:29 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Do you know, I don't think Donald Trump has the slightest notion of the demographic changes that have swept the US in the past twenty years, or just how large a percentage of the population is now Latinx. And boy oh boy, is he about to get a world-historical wakeup call.
posted by adamgreenfield at 6:30 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Just a warning - this Clinton ad (twitter) will completely destroy you. A young boy with the same condition as NYT reporter Serge Kovaleski talks about how Trump hurt his feelings.
posted by sallybrown at 6:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [25 favorites]

Remember when Jan Brewer said Hispanics don't get out and vote?

Yeah. Hey what is that sound . . . Is that the sound of her biting our shiny metal @$%?!
posted by petebest at 6:37 AM on November 5, 2016 [18 favorites]

I have a song on my mind.

Decía Gregorio Cortez
con su pistola en la mano:
"No corran rinches cobardes,
con un solo

in Anglo:
Gregorio Cortez said,
with his pistol in his hand:
"Don't run you cowardly Rangers,
from one lone Mexican."

Ramon Ayala's conjunto version.

I am wishing the man known to his countless enchanted students (I knew him at the end of his illustrious life but didn't study with him) as Don Americo (Paredes) were still here to see Nevada last night.
posted by spitbull at 6:41 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I have to tell everyone that I dreamed that I was interviewing Hillary Clinton for [basically an amateur radio thing I used to do]. It was a super detailed dream. She was really nice and very charismatic, you guys! And in my dream I thought, "everyone on metafilter who has met her says she's a very warm person, I guess that's true".

I was a really conflicted in the dream because I felt like I still could not support her foreign policy.

She had great hair and a really nice outfit, too, sort of lavish in that "beautiful minimalist nineties big coat" way - I noticed especially.

In the dream I thought to myself, "I should tell her that I'm sure she's going to be president, but what if that jinxes things?"

This is not a characteristic dream for me - I almost never dream about actually existing people, never mind famous ones. Let's hope it augers well.
posted by Frowner at 6:43 AM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

In case Beyoncé and LeBron Jamese were not enough, Hillary now strategically deploying taco trucks to Ohio.
posted by shothotbot at 6:53 AM on November 5, 2016 [35 favorites]

[Vote by mail]
Application processed on: 9/7/2016
Ballot Issued: 10/11/2016
*Received and Verified by the Registrar:11/4/2016

Hill yeah!
posted by carsonb at 6:53 AM on November 5, 2016 [24 favorites]

Thank god for Women and Minority voters being willing to save White Males from ourselves.

It's truly amazing that some people seem to be bewildered that a candidate and movement that treats women and minorities as subhuman might generate a massive backlash.

Hopefully this is going to be the beginning of some beautiful things as a massive diverse coalition seems like what democracy is supposed to be about. A vast homogenous population just seems like it's likely to fall victim to groupthink. I think what we've seen is the Republican Party and the largely white male population that forms their base assume that's what is good for white males is good for everyone and then double down time and again when people tell them that no maintaining structures of white patriarchal privilege is not the way to go.
posted by vuron at 6:55 AM on November 5, 2016 [29 favorites]

Whoops, somehow I chopped the all important word "Mexicano" from the corrido lyric excerpt above (" con un solo Mexicano")...

Gives me a chance to explain why... Americo Paredes played a huge role in creating the field of Chicano Studies with his 1958 book With His Pistol In his Hand, which interprets a famous Tejano corrido as a veiled tale of resistance to white power, represented in the brutality of Texas Rangers to the falsely accused protagonist. He showed that Tejano folk culture, like black and indigenous folk culture, never acquiesced to Anglo domination through violence. For his troubles, the young U Texas professor and recent Texas PhD received actual death threats from the actual Texas Rangers (then as now a markedly white police force) for besmirching their white hat legend with a tale of how they were almost beaten by one wily Tejano peasant with far greater skills as a horseman and far greater knowledge of the land.

Paredes went on to great fame in his long career at Texas. Indeed, his stunning politicization of Chicano oral tradition earned a movie version of his book's interpretation of the tale of Gregorio Cortez, which is on YouTube, but is no substitute for the book.

He was a luminous human being all around too.
posted by spitbull at 7:00 AM on November 5, 2016 [24 favorites]

Frowner, you're dream is so much better then mine.

I dreamed that for some reason, I think maybe it was for spying reasons, I went to help out with something in Trump campaign office. I had already helped out a lot in a Hillary office. So I go in thinking I'm not really sure why I'm here but whatever and ask what my job is. Then a friend of mine walks in and looks startled when she sees me. I'm thinking, what in the hell is she doing here. She's supports Trump and is working for him? She doesn't say anything and just avoids me for a bit.
Finally I say we need to talk this out and we go to our own room. We have a conversation. I ask her why? Why you? How could you? I don't remember the exact answers but I was just so sad and disappointed. Then I left.

I woke up and my immediate reaction was oh thank goodness, it was only a dream and had sweet, sweet relief. I was horrified that I would dream that about my friend. I realized that my brain picked her because there is no way in real life she would ever support Trump and having her do so would be a nightmare.

Thanks brain.
posted by Jalliah at 7:02 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

The collective memory of America is short. During the 2010 midterm elections, it seemed like every other house in my north Dallas neighborhood sported a “Had Enough? Vote Republican!” yard sign. As if it had been two hundred years, instead of two, since the US economy was on the brink of collapse, with panicked credit markets, huge banks and insurance companies about to topple into the void, a flatlining auto industry, the Dow Jones plunging toward 6500, and job losses topping 700,000 a month, not to mention the wars that had turned the budget surpluses of the late Bill Clinton years into massive deficits, all courtesy of a two-term Republican president whose party controlled Congress for six of the last eight years. Yes, please! Take us back to the good old days of 2008!

[...]

“You don’t miss your water till your well runs dry,” the late, great Sam Cooke sang in one of his more melancholy songs. Around 2009, 2010, around the time we were crawling out from under the wreckage of 2008 and saw that the Wall Street crowd had come through just fine, thank you, that seems to be when a critical mass of the American population began to realize that, hey, we were missing something; that maybe our well was running dry. People were angry. We had good reason to be. We saw great prosperity at the top, scant trickle-down toward the bottom. In Texas, and especially in rural Texas ... the Tea Party rose with a mighty roar to rage against liberals, the government and the newly elected Democratic president.

If that rage seems somewhat misdirected, here’s an explanation: 40 years of well-funded, highly organized laissez-faire proselytizing and government-bashing have done a number on the American mind. The country got conned by a profound ideological shift, starting in the early 1970s as hardcore free-market, anti-government advocates launched a concerted effort to change the political landscape.

Ben Fountain, The Big Con: what is really at stake on election day, The Guardian (5 November 2016).
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:04 AM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

My Hillary dream last night involved being at a convention (for parents of autistic children, which is weird because my son, to my knowledge, is not on the spectrum) where she was speaking and as she started half the audience stood and turned their backs on her and walked out in protest of...something. And she just took it in stride, told the rest of us to huddle up closer and turned her speech into more of a conversation with those of us who remained. I think Chelsea was there too.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:11 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

There have been times during this election where I've been dismayed at how the internet has made it so easy to spread conspiracy theories and foment hate. Then I see things like and am reminded that it can also amplify the best attributes of this country.

@maireadlynn
You guys the Internet just sent us pizza at #Cardenas. We love you Internet and we love early voting! #theinternetsentuspizza

posted by strange chain at 7:16 AM on November 5, 2016 [34 favorites]

The Latinx culinary workers of Vegas might've just saved the nation.

@RalstonReports:
Final (almost) NV early #s are in:
Trump is dead.
GOP in big trouble in #nvsen, two House seats and #nvleg control.
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over."
posted by chris24 at 7:18 AM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

sallybrown, omg that ad. I'm usually fairly clinically detached from campaign ad sentimentalism but that last line is a fucking mic drop. Hope it is really running widely.
posted by spitbull at 7:21 AM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm concerned that all these early votes, great though they appear, represent votes that aren't going to be cast on election day, rather than being bonus extra votes.
posted by Flashman at 7:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

That Ralston report - for everyone who was terrified, not able to sleep, having bad anxiety attacks, etc, breathe easier. Trump now has to win ALL of OH, FL, NC, UT, AZ, GA *and* PA or ALL of OH, FL, NC, UT, AZ, GA, IA, CO, *and* a choice of MI, WI, VA, NM.

Keep pushing those voters - let's send the strongest repudiation we can!!
posted by sallybrown at 7:25 AM on November 5, 2016 [24 favorites]

@nickgourevitch:
Recent news on impact of Trump's rhetoric:
1) Hispanics surging in FL/NV
2) Women voting at higher rates vs '12
3) HRC up w/ Jews 73%-18%
posted by chris24 at 7:25 AM on November 5, 2016 [20 favorites]

I'm concerned that all these early votes, great though they appear, represent votes that aren't going to be cast on election day, rather than being bonus extra votes.

I don't really grok your concern. Votes are votes. They're not bonus votes, they're just votes? The "bonus" part is if that, if the voters were considered unlikely to turn out, then the polls underrepresented them.
posted by dis_integration at 7:26 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

sallybrown, omg that ad. I'm usually fairly clinically detached from campaign ad sentimentalism but that last line is a fucking mic drop. Hope it is really running widely.

It's now on Clinton's Facebook page in case anyone wants to share it on their own page. It is really something.
posted by sallybrown at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

So I'm just watching the Somos El Muro ad linked through Twitter above and bawling my eyes out. It's like, you wanted a wall? Here's your fucking wall.
posted by medusa at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2016 [29 favorites]

I'm concerned that all these early votes, great though they appear, represent votes that aren't going to be cast on election day, rather than being bonus extra votes.

I know this is difficult because of all the media bullshit but... maybe your fellow citizens are decent human beings and are just as disgusted with the nascent fascism as you are.
posted by Glibpaxman at 7:29 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Flashman --

That's not as bad as it might seem. Every banked vote makes the GOTV effort easier and makes it easier to contacti people who can be convinced to vote but wouldn't vote without contact, that's part of a real bonus. And the general sentiment is that Clinton's GOTV is far superior to Trumps, so it's a double bonus.
posted by jclarkin at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

That Somos el Muro ad was exactly what made me think of Gregorio Cortez and Americo Paredes!
posted by spitbull at 7:30 AM on November 5, 2016

I don't really grok your concern.

I'm still deeply traumatized by the Brexit vote.
posted by Flashman at 7:31 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

what's that got to do with early voting?
posted by andrewcooke at 7:36 AM on November 5, 2016

I'm still deeply traumatized by the Brexit vote.

As are we all, but that comparison is a bit apples and oranges. Part of why Brexit happened is that it was a referendum in which literally every vote counted. Winning the electoral college, on the other hand, presents a much more impregnable challenge to Trump than the Brexiteers faced.
posted by Sonny Jim at 7:37 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Flashman: Here is a good explanation from CNN about why this early vote lead is insurmountable;

Overall, Democrats have built a lead of more than 72,000 votes there -- 13.7 points ahead of Republicans, and slightly larger than Obama's 2012 edge.

It's no surprise Democrats are ahead there, but the gap is more than double what Republicans say they need it to be. A GOP official said Trump could afford to lose Clark County by 6 points and still carry the state.

Democrats also cast more ballots in Washoe County -- Nevada's second biggest, the home of Reno, and historically a swing region that Republicans believed they would win in this election cycle.

Statewide, Democrats have an edge of 46,000 votes, or 6 points. That's roughly the same as Obama's 48,000-vote lead after early voting in 2012 -- which grew when more Democrats than Republicans turned out on Election Day. . . .

Overall, 767,000 Nevadans have voted early -- more than half the state's active registered voters, and ahead of 2012's figure of 705,000 early votes -- when about 7 in 10 Nevada voters cast their ballots early.

If 2012's turnout of 81% of Nevada's active registered voters holds in 2016, there could be around 400,000 more votes to be cast.

There's no realistic way for Republican voters to overcome this deficit. There's no realistic reason why Dems would have all voted early, leaving no one for Election Day, when Republicans all stayed home.
posted by sallybrown at 7:37 AM on November 5, 2016 [27 favorites]

It is quite something to think that Trump will be flying all the way to Reno and sleeping in his Vegas suite this weekend when Harry Reid has already baked a fucking "Nevada loser" cake for him and is ready to serve it on a silver platter.

I mean, given Harry Reid, he might actually get someone to deliver a real cake to TrumpVegas.

with the message: "BIENVENIDO A NEVADA"
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:38 AM on November 5, 2016 [25 favorites]

Trump just announced (unplanned) that he's going to Minnesota before Election Day. (twitter)

Uh...LOL
posted by sallybrown at 7:46 AM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

You tube Dealing with Protesters Trump vs Obama
posted by Jalliah at 7:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

If Trump really lost NV, then this is now the worst case scenario. I can't wait to drink my White Male Tears cocktail tuesday night.
posted by dis_integration at 7:56 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Justin Trudeau vs protestor
posted by Bovine Love at 8:01 AM on November 5, 2016

I can't wait to drink my White Male Tears cocktail tuesday night.

This White Male's Tears will be tears of joy. I gladly share them with you.
posted by zakur at 8:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [27 favorites]

White Male Tears cocktail

I googled this looking for a recipe, sadly, there wasn't one that I found.

I'll go with the old standby:

Rick: It's one part lame advice about stuff you know nothing about and a lot of vodka.
Bartender: I have a lot of vodka.
Rick: Then I'll take one of those, I don't need the rest.

posted by mikelieman at 8:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

Meta: That's a lot more appropriate than I thought it would have been.
posted by mikelieman at 8:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

The secret Hillary group on FB has grown by over 300,000 people since I joined yesterday. If you'd like to be added to it, go to my MeFi profile and hit the link to my FB profile, send me a friend request, and I'll accept and add you to the group.
posted by palomar at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2016 [27 favorites]

Do we know which cities/venues each of the candidates will be on election night? Both NYC?
posted by bluecore at 8:18 AM on November 5, 2016

Both NYC. Hilton for Trump, Javits for Clinton.
posted by chris24 at 8:19 AM on November 5, 2016

Do we know which cities/venues each of the candidates will be on election night? Both NYC?

Both NYC, Both midtown manhattan. Clinton will be at the Javits center. Trump at some dumb hotel.
posted by dis_integration at 8:19 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

The secret Hillary group on FB has grown by over 300,000 people since I joined yesterday.

300,000 in one day? Is there a typo in there or am I misunderstanding this?
posted by maudlin at 8:20 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

> There's no realistic reason why Dems would have all voted early, leaving no one for Election Day

I can think of one very orange reason.
posted by fragmede at 8:22 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Buzzfeed: In a South Georgia town, the prosecution of five people on accusations of voter fraud comes amid an unexpectedly tight battle for the state’s electoral votes. The state argues vigilance against voter fraud is necessary — but others say it’s a tactic to suppress the vote.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:26 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

RE: Nevada turnout and its impact on the Senate race.

@ppppolls
Our polling has basically found everyone voting for Hillary voting for Cortez Masto too- different dynamic from 2012 on ticket splitting
posted by chris24 at 8:27 AM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Sorry if this is old news (but I did search this thread first) – did people see this a couple of days ago? FBI complaint filed regarding Ohio secretary of state allegedly failing to distribute nearly 1 million absentee ballots.
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:27 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

but others say it’s a tactic to suppress the vote

And other others say "fuck the fucking assholes who are doing this."
posted by tonycpsu at 8:30 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Nope, no typo. Group membership was sitting around 525,000 when a friend added me yesterday morning... as of right now, it's over 830,000 and counting. I've added like ten people today and I've been awake for an hour. Want in? Holler at me.

I joined yesterday and it's so amazing. So inspiring and so diverse! It's actually hard to read right now because so many people are posting the the page keeps moving.

My favorite right now is the post from a woman whose neighborhood doesn't allow yard signs. So she put a life size cardboard cut out of Hillary looking out her living room window. lol
posted by Jalliah at 8:31 AM on November 5, 2016 [59 favorites]

Sorry if this is old news (but I did search this thread first) – did people see this a couple of days ago? FBI complaint filed regarding Ohio secretary of state allegedly failing to distribute nearly 1 million absentee ballots.

This is misleading. The complaint is that the SOS did not distribute absentee ballot applications. That is a huge difference.
posted by zakur at 8:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

@kylegriffin1
"Wow— this letter to @POTUS from Grace Hardison, a 100-year old black woman who was a plaintiff in the NAACP lawsuit of NC's voter purge: [letter]"

Obama read the letter at yesterday's rally.

@Natalie_Borden
"President Obama is reading a letter from Grace Bell Hardison.
Her story: https://pocket.co/sM4QR_"

Video of Obama
posted by chris24 at 8:34 AM on November 5, 2016 [45 favorites]

The complaint is that the SOS did not distribute absentee ballot applications

Huh. You're right. The author's part of the article really doesn't mention the word "applications", though the quoted passages do. Looks like a gaffe by the author.
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:37 AM on November 5, 2016

300,000 in one day? Is there a typo in there or am I misunderstanding this?

Pantsuit Nation is rising. Right now it's at about 837K (in the time it took me to write this post it grew by 2,000 members). I'm certain there will be over 1 million people in that group by Election Day. 1.3 million members is a full 1% of the vote. All in a SECRET Facebook group that you have to invite people to, where I have seen nothing but love, kindness, oceans of emotional labor and support, and women (and some men) sharing deeply personal stories about their lives. And I have not seen a single troll or hateful post.

Take that Tea Party! When women and our allies come together, there is NOTHING that can stop us.
posted by sallybrown at 8:42 AM on November 5, 2016 [72 favorites]

Trump's Wisconsin rally tomorrow rally is cancelled, per campaign
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:43 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Trump's Wisconsin rally tomorrow rally is cancelled, per campaign

DOESN'T HAVE THE STAMINA! SAD!
posted by Talez at 8:46 AM on November 5, 2016 [42 favorites]

This supporter is worried that Trump can't make it through a speech without freaking out, but wants to give him nuclear weapons, a bigger military than the next 7 combined, and the entire intelligence and law enforcement apparatus.

@alivitali
Trump says "get em out" to an apparent protester. Supporter in the front row pleads "stay on script! Stay on script, Donald!"
posted by chris24 at 8:50 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I have not seen a single troll or hateful post.

Me neither, and that takes monitoring. The admins must be getting acute carpal tunnel by now. Hats off to them.

The "rah-rah Hill" is one thing (and an encouraging thing) but OMG, the stories - they are, over and over, a litany of American women's history and the constant, painful challenges women have faced due to repressive politics and misogyny. These groups have been a feminist touchstone for me.
posted by Miko at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [20 favorites]

Oh my gosh. So I just read about a group of Hillary woman, in a deep red county, who found each other through a FB group which grew like crazy and then literally came up with a secret code way of identifying themselves to each other when they're out and about.
posted by Jalliah at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [47 favorites]

He was scheduled to campaign with Paul Ryan in Wisconsin, wondering if he's canceling just to get him back. This guy's pettiness makes Nixon look good.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2016

Hillary Clinton's closing ad of her campaign is running in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin through Election Day.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 8:57 AM on November 5, 2016 [82 favorites]

Blame the Rise of Trump on the Failure of TV News.
posted by Johann Georg Faust at 9:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hillary Clinton's closing ad of her campaign

Well, shit, that made me cry.
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2016 [31 favorites]

@HamiltonMusical
Four days away! The Schuyler Sisters and the cast of #HamiltonBway remind you to #VoteVote on November 8th! #Ham4Vote [video]
posted by chris24 at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

Nevada should be added to the blue firewall
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:05 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Grrrr I'm supposed to be making calls from home but the Hillary website says no lists of voters to call yet, keep checking back (!!!) a glitch? so many people making calls on Sat at noon that their system is clogged? urgh
posted by DMelanogaster at 9:09 AM on November 5, 2016

This Lawrence O'Donnell interview with Sam Wang is fun to watch, not just because it's Sam Wang on television talking about his methodology ("over seventy-two quadrillion possibilities!") but also because of how they presented him in the smallest possible box next to a giant widescreen shot of Beyoncé's performance in Cleveland.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I feel bad about being so hyperconscious of the musical editing in that Hillary spot, but recutting pop songs against the pacing of the established arrangement always gets under my skin in the same pointless irrational way that a hotel TV set to the wrong aspect ratio does.

I mean, don't get me wrong: it's good, slick editing, and serves the needs of that ad itself. But dang it I've heard "Roar" too many times not to be like wait what's with the hey now c'mon that's not where the verse and WHAT that's WHAT

It's almost as bad as that episode of The Americans where they used "In The Air Tonight" but edited out the goddam drum fill.
posted by cortex at 9:10 AM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

I love that that campaign ad is set to "Roar" - the voice of a 19 year old woman. Something I notice about Clinton is she backs up the people who step forward to support her. She doesn't try and control Jay Z from cussing at his show, she doesn't apologize for centering Katy Perry (who some could dismiss as a silly pop star), she let the Khan family write and deliver their own remarks without controlling it...when she chooses people or accepts their help, she trusts them.
posted by sallybrown at 9:10 AM on November 5, 2016 [70 favorites]

I mean, don't get me wrong: it's good, slick editing, and serves the needs of that ad itself. But dang it I've heard "Roar" too many times not to be like wait what's with the hey now c'mon that's not where the verse and WHAT that's WHAT

For me that would make me look up at the TV like huh? Oh! I don't know if they try to bake that effect in, though.
posted by sallybrown at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2016

I'd guess their intent there is totally neutral: for every grump like me there's probably someone outright delighted by the recut and about fifty people who have no strong feelings about the editing either way but are like "hey, yeah, that Katy Perry song!" Overall presentational effect way overrules any thoughts about people like me or my cheerful opposite. Just one of those little sausage-making things that catches my attention.
posted by cortex at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ttump going off the edge of reality earlier today - Tampa speech with even more bizarre conspiracy theory email stuff. (TPM)

Who WANTS to keep to the script, eh, Donnie?
posted by Devonian at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Ttump going off the edge of reality earlier today

PREDICTION: Trump will say Clinton has had someone killed by Monday night.
posted by chris24 at 9:16 AM on November 5, 2016

#SCOTUS stays 9th Circuit ruling against "ballot harvesting" law, meaning the ban on it WILL be in effect for this election.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Chris, that is what Bengazi is all about.
posted by AlexiaSky at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2016

Chris, that is what Bengazi is all about.

A bit more directly and explicitly.
posted by chris24 at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Tuesday Night’s Literal Showstoppers: Clinton and Trump: More than half of Broadway theaters and the White Light Festival at Lincoln Center will all go dark on Tuesday evening rather than compete with the most compelling, consequential theater in town: the presidential election.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

I've called 22 people for Hillary and no one has answered. I tell myself I'm keeping busy calling these folks so people better than me on the phone can actually talk to people. I'm guessing most folks have caller ID and they see some dude from NC calling they don't know so they don't answer. It was weird, NC wasn't on the call list this morning. So I chose PA, called about four people and then the web site said "No more voter lists." So I moved on to Iowa, couldn't get any lists for FL. Are these lists really done or are they getting new lists all the time?
posted by marxchivist at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump is campaigning in Minnesota? Mondale country?

Good luck! /king george voice
posted by Flannery Culp at 9:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

Hmmm, I had kind of given up on ol' IA, but new Iowa poll:

Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 3
Stein 3

And two close House races, both with Republican incumbents:

Rod Blum (R) 47
Monica Vernon (D) 41
Unsure 12

David Young (R) 44
Jim Mowrer (D) 39
Unsure 17
posted by sallybrown at 9:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

SCOTUS stays 9th Circuit ruling against "ballot harvesting" law, meaning the ban on it WILL be in effect for this election.

What does this mean?
posted by Jalliah at 9:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump's Wisconsin rally tomorrow rally is cancelled, per campaign

Was scheduled to start just before the Packers kickoff. Sad!

Instead, he's going to Minnesota (during the Vikings game), which if you believe NeverTrump campaign types means he's doing the traditional "no map, therefore rack up thousands of miles flinging shit at the wall to fake out press" final tour.
posted by holgate at 9:23 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ballot Harvesting is a non direct family member assisting someone in turning in a early ballot. Arizona had made it illegal, SCOTUS put a stay on it.
posted by AlexiaSky at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jalliah, here you go: Court puts Arizona ballot-harvesting law on hold
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

He's campaigning in states that he'd have to win to break the Clinton firewall, it does make a certain sense. There's no sense in stopping in Ohio, if he doesn't have Ohio in the bag by now he's fucked anyway.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2016

Thank you!
posted by Jalliah at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2016

> "PREDICTION: Trump will say Clinton has had someone killed by Monday night."

You're kidding, right? He said he thought there was something "very fishy" about Vince Foster's suicide and that "there are people who continue to bring it up because they think it was absolutely a murder" back in MAY.
posted by kyrademon at 9:28 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

He's campaigning in states that he'd have to win to break the Clinton firewall

Yeah, but you'd think WI is a better opportunity than MN. I mean in 2012 there was a big todo about a GOP poll that had Romney tied in MN. Obama won by 8.
posted by chris24 at 9:28 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

He's campaigning in states that he'd have to win to break the Clinton firewall

That's why Wisconsin makes sense. The GOP is fairly strong there. It's plausibly flippable. Scott Walker is the gov after all. But Minnesota? Now he's just flinging shit at the wall.
posted by dis_integration at 9:30 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

You're kidding, right?

I'm saying he's going to bring that up again more explicitly or something else. That was all in the primary before the nation was paying attention and he got pushback on it and stopped talking about it.
posted by chris24 at 9:30 AM on November 5, 2016

SCOTUS stays 9th Circuit ruling against "ballot harvesting" law, meaning the ban on it WILL be in effect for this election.

What does this mean?

The Supreme Court ruled in Purcell v. Gonzales that because last-minute court orders impacting elections can be confusing and chaotic for voters and election officials, judges should be cognizant of this effect when deciding whether to step in to election disputes that happen close to the election. Looks like this decision is partly to send a message that the Court is standing behind that principle.
posted by sallybrown at 9:31 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

sallybrown: U.S. Govt. Hackers Ready to Hit Back If Russia Disrupts Election (NBC News)

Related: U.S. Had Cyberattack Plan if Iran Nuclear Dispute Led to Conflict (New York Times, Feb. 16, 2016)
posted by filthy light thief at 9:37 AM on November 5, 2016

I'm saying he's going to bring that up again more explicitly or something else. That was all in the primary before the nation was paying attention and he got pushback on it and stopped talking about it.

Well around the 15th of October the Right wiki peeps did try to push the story that Hillary was involved in murdering Scalia. Something, something here's proof from a Podesta email.
Which then led to the speculation that this means her plan is to kill the rest of them and blah blah.
posted by Jalliah at 9:37 AM on November 5, 2016

Ok, you get busy at work and miss a day of this thread and returning to it is daunting indeed. A grab-bag of comments as I try to catch up:

1. Anecdata point on voter turnout: I'm hearing from a lot of POC friends in red states who voted absentee this year because (especially the Latinx ones) they were afraid of Trump's white supremacist supporters engaging in voter intimidation at the polling stations.

2. Is there a way to contribute money to sending taco trucks to those waiting in polling lines? I saw at comment that Hillary's campaign was on this in Ohio, but are there more directed ways than just kicking in cash when I get the next fundraising email from Hillary/Bernie/Elizabeth Warren/Act Blue in about 35 seconds?

3. There totally needs to be a FPP on the whole Beyonce/Dixie Chicks/CMA Tried To Scrub Them From Their Website madness. But I totally agree that Bey and the Dixie Chicks should play Hillary's inauguration!
posted by TwoStride at 9:39 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

So according to http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog Nevada is blue. Why hasn't 538 (updated 1 hour ago) taken this into account?
posted by morspin at 9:41 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

That's why Wisconsin makes sense. The GOP is fairly strong there. It's plausibly flippable. Scott Walker is the gov after all. But Minnesota? Now he's just flinging shit at the wall.

Wisconsin really doesn't make sense. The last time Wisconsin voted R was in '84. Even in times with strong R prospects it doesn't vote R. If Trump wants to win without PA he needs to run the gauntlet. OH, IA, NC, FL, NV, NH.

If he had surrogates worth a damn this might actually be plausible. But since Romney is busy out in NV telling every white Mormon to vote Heck but not Trump and the rest of the GOP won't touch him with a forty foot barge pole, he's pretty fucked.

Why hasn't 538 (updated 1 hour ago) taken this into account?

Because 538 works on poll methodology not early voting.
posted by Talez at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

You're kidding, right? He said he thought there was something "very fishy" about Vince Foster's suicide and that "there are people who continue to bring it up because they think it was absolutely a murder" back in MAY.

Right wing talk radio was talking about the "Clinton Death List" back in the 90s. Hillary Haters have been saying "Vince Foster! Vince Foster!" for more than 20 years.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 9:44 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I told my wife this morning I wanted to strangle Nate Silver because he isn't reassuring me - but, really, that's not his job. His model is transparent and he sticks by it; that's integrity.
posted by Mid at 9:46 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I think this is very good advice c/o twitter: You can tell a lot more about where the race is by tracking HRC/Kaine than Trump. Clinton has strategy and data. Trump has an airplane

And keep in mind, where Clinton/Kaine are going is not just about the top-of-the-ticket races. I hope they are trying to hoover up as many House seats as they can.
posted by sallybrown at 9:48 AM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

Sounds from this tweet like Paul Ryan had no clue Trump was going to cancel Wisconsin...heh.
posted by sallybrown at 9:49 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Right wing talk radio was talking about the "Clinton Death List" back in the 90s. Hillary Haters have been saying "Vince Foster! Vince Foster!" for more than 20 years.

It's important to remember that Richard Mellon Scaife was personally throwing millions at doing this in the 90s via the Arkansas Project.

NYT in 1998: Almost $2 Million Spent in Magazine's Anti-Clinton Project, but on What?

In December 1993, Richard Mellon Scaife, a reclusive multimillionaire and benefactor of many conservative causes, began subsidizing a large-scale effort at The American Spectator magazine to unearth damaging information about President Clinton.

By the time his grants ended in the fall of 1997, Mr. Scaife had given The American Spectator $2.4 million, according to a preliminary internal audit at the magazine. Of that amount, $1.8 million was specifically allocated to obtain information about the activities of Mr. Clinton and his wife, Hillary, during their years in Arkansas. This came to be known at the magazine as ''The Arkansas Project.'' White House officials have described it in a different way: as a major component of a ''vast right-wing conspiracy'' to damage Mr. Clinton.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:49 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I think I've added about thirty people to the secret FB group -- if you want in, send me a friend request via the FB link on my MeFi profile. Or if that's not working, try searching for greyskulljones on FB. I'm heading out for errands and family time for a few hours but will accept friend requests and add to the group as quickly as I can. Or MeMail me if you're having trouble, and we'll work it out. Now, off to teach my grandma how to phone bank!
posted by palomar at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

Right wing talk radio was talking about the "Clinton Death List" back in the 90s. Hillary Haters have been saying "Vince Foster! Vince Foster!" for more than 20 years.

Yep, which is different than the Republican nominee saying two days before the election that his opponent has had people killed. Of course it's been out in the fever swamps, and of course he hinted at Vince Foster once in the primary. I just think there's a good chance a desperate Trump explicitly says it in the last few days.
posted by chris24 at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'm planning on busking on Election Day (since I already voted) and now I have to learn a Katy Perry song?! THANKS HILLARY.
posted by pxe2000 at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

That said, if Hillary takes NV, then she needs only one other of the "close" states, including MI.

Regarding the travel schedules - I have read that Hillary and Kaine are likely to hit states with very high election-day turnout as opposed to states where early voting dilutes the importance of a late visit. Also, keep in mind that media markets and also ethnic affiliations can cross state boundaries - I have thought that a big Hillary appearance in an African American venue (e.g., Detroit) might have some effect throughout the Midwest, for example. So I don't read a MI visit as "panic" that she is behind in MI.
posted by Mid at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

NYT in 1998: Almost $2 Million Spent in Magazine's Anti-Clinton Project, but on What?

"We've plenty of hearsay and conjecture... Those are kinds of evidence!"
posted by Talez at 9:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm planning on busking on Election Day (since I already voted) and now I have to learn a Katy Perry song?! THANKS HILLARY.

If you know Brave you know Roar.
posted by Talez at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

"We've plenty of hearsay and conjecture... Those are kinds of evidence!"

This will take the brownest of the brown liquors to get through.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:54 AM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

You know, everyone's been saying "what if we get a slicker Trump in 2020", but it just occurred to me - what if we get a better Bernie?

To me, it seems obvious that a lot of people are voting for Dream Hillary - the image her very smart campaign team has created that positions her as far stronger for anti-racism, feminism and social justice generally than I think her history or her policies bear out. But we can see from the response to this portrait that there's a lot of people who want that and who are mobilized by it. What if we got a Bernie who was some combination of more-nationally-connected, harder to red-bait, maybe younger, maybe not as white/straight/male? Someone who could mobilize more women, for example? Someone who could present left policies in such a way that they forged a better coalition between younger people and older people?

If I were a left-leaning-in-my-heart Democrat in a fairly safe spot, I would spend the next four years working up a Bernie-like program and positioning myself to run in 2020, and if I wasn't able to get ready then I'd be working toward 2024.

Assuming Hillary wins, she's coming to the presidency in a really different situation from when Bill won - she didn't have a Sistah Souljah moment, she didn't gesture towards open racism to try to position herself better. She had to make a coalition which has appealed to core Democratic constituencies and - even with things like her wishy-washy statement on DAPL, etc - she has had to temporize with POC in a way that Bill Clinton did not. And unlike Bill, she won't be able to pacify many of her more centrist supporters with a boom and economic good times - no good times are coming. Bill got a way with a LOT of shit economically and politically because his core center Democrat base was fat and happy in the nineties and let everything go. Hillary has a different constituency and a different economy.

And that means that there's a lot more possibilities out there - not that we're going to get utopia, but if she wins there's more room, and more need, for newer big political projects. And we know there's the desire for them, just from watching what people want to be voting for.

Victory breeds victory - that's why the right doesn't want us to have any of it. Would I prefer to elect someone well to Hillary's left? Sure I would. But a Hillary victory might just mobilize people in radical ways.
posted by Frowner at 9:55 AM on November 5, 2016 [54 favorites]

This will take the brownest of the brown liquors to get through.

I need to start a MeTa to get a flagging option for "THIS GUY GETS IT!".
posted by Talez at 9:56 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

if she wins there's more room

This is a point I have tried to make to progressive Hillary-haters: the pipeline for progressive pols and ideas is much more favorable and productive under a projected Clinton presidency than under any Trump administration that would do nothing but divert everyone's energies into constant legislative and court battles.
posted by Miko at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2016 [34 favorites]

It's almost as bad as that episode of The Americans where they used "In The Air Tonight" but edited out the goddam drum fill.

Oh you better believe that's a paddlin'
posted by petebest at 9:58 AM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

Trump campaign all over the place. This new "path" doesn't include their new destination Minnesota.

@PeterAlexander
NEW: Michigan is Trump campaign's latest priority for surpassing 270 electoral votes, per aide. Trump wins WH with FL NC IA OH GA & MI.
posted by chris24 at 9:59 AM on November 5, 2016

NEW: Michigan is Trump campaign's latest priority for surpassing 270 electoral votes, per aide. Trump wins WH with FL NC IA OH GA & MI.

Oh wait you're serious?
posted by Talez at 10:02 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

> "Trump wins WH with FL NC IA OH GA & MI."

If you have to mention GA, your Republican campaign may be experiencing some turbulence.
posted by kyrademon at 10:02 AM on November 5, 2016 [45 favorites]

Wow, normally I'm immune to campaign ads. I can appreciate them as being effective but damn I actually teared up with that Roar Ad. To close out an awful campaign season with a message of forward looking, a message of hope, and a message of triumph is a brilliant close to what seems like a brilliant campaign.

If you have had doubts banish them from your mind because She's Got This.
posted by vuron at 10:04 AM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

To me, it seems obvious that a lot of people are voting for Dream Hillary - the image her very smart campaign team has created that positions her as far stronger for anti-racism, feminism and social justice generally than I think her history or her policies bear out. But we can see from the response to this portrait that there's a lot of people who want that and who are mobilized by it. What if we got a Bernie who was some combination of more-nationally-connected, harder to red-bait, maybe younger, maybe not as white/straight/male? Someone who could mobilize more women, for example? Someone who could present left policies in such a way that they forged a better coalition between younger people and older people?

I mean...sure. But I don't want that. I want the actual Hillary, and I find it kind of offensive that you think people are voting for some imaginary Actual Progressive that, what, they've tricked themselves into believing in, because they couldn't get someone better?

I actually want this older woman who is actually running, warts and all, not a "better Bernie". And I know you said the "better Bernie" doesn't have to be a man, but Bernie himself is a man and I find it annoying that the misogyny involved in being the first woman to get this far is being elided.
posted by Salieri at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [62 favorites]

It's almost as bad as that episode of The Americans where they used "In The Air Tonight" but edited out the goddam drum fill.

Yeah but the use of "Tusk" in episode 1 was fucking rad though

ARE WE ALL AGREED THAT THE USE OF TUSK WAS FUCKING RAD
posted by duffell at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [21 favorites]

He's campaigning in states that he'd have to win to break the Clinton firewall, it does make a certain sense.

But at this point, randomly showing up in states on short notice can drag away resources from GOTV, because there needs to be advance work done. Not that Trump has a proper GOTV operation, but the local party has to accommodate him.

Compare the setup for the Hillary / LeBron event in Cleveland, which has a standard RSVP, but if you put in a couple of hours of canvassing they'll give you a priority ticket.

(And Chelsea's presence on the campaign trail has been quiet but incredibly focused: small events in mid-sized "blue oasis" towns. She's doing five canvassing events on Sunday in the Philly burbs.)
posted by holgate at 10:07 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Princeton Election Consortium

As of November 5, 12:06PM EDT:Snapshot (192 state polls): Clinton 312, Trump 226 EV
Meta-margin: Clinton +2.6%RSS
Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98%, Bayesian >99%

Senate snapshot (48 polls): Dem+Ind: 50, GOP: 50,
Meta-margin: D +0.8%, Nov. control probability: Dem. 78%
posted by petebest at 10:07 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I find it kind of offensive that you think people are voting for some imaginary Actual Progressive

Frowner said "a lot of people", not "most people" or "all people". You can go on record as not one of those people without implying that the original comment was saying something it wasn't.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

@ambertamblyn
Listen: I'm not voting for Hillary because she's a woman. I'm voting for her because I AM. I see what's at stake for my body. Got it?
posted by chris24 at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [54 favorites]

NEW: Michigan is Trump campaign's latest priority for surpassing 270 electoral votes, per aide. Trump wins WH with FL NC IA OH GA & MI.

Michigan? THIS Michigan?
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

If you have to mention GA, your Republican campaign may be experiencing some turbulence.

#Peachmentum has got me feeling like this.
posted by sallybrown at 10:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

New Hampshirites don't like Ayotte's reckless attitude to gun control, according to Public Policy Polling, one of the most respected and accurate polling services:

"In 2013 and again in 2016, Senator Kelly Ayotte voted against a bill that would require most gun sales be subject to a background check. Does Senator Ayotte’s opposition to comprehensive gun background checks make you more likely or less likely to vote for her, or does it not make a difference?"

More likely: 14%
Less likely: 42%
Doesn't make a difference: 41%
Not sure: 3%

Perhaps that's why she's down 3% in the latest poll, and Trump is down 5%!

posted by Coventry at 10:10 AM on November 5, 2016

Taking a break. I apologize.
posted by Salieri at 10:11 AM on November 5, 2016

Women of Metafilter (or just those in this thread): Is it harmful for me to use this mashup image of New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte in a bathing suit, as a photo accompanying the following text in a FB post?

Not a woman but that's still really disgusting.
posted by Talez at 10:12 AM on November 5, 2016 [22 favorites]

You know, everyone's been saying "what if we get a slicker Trump in 2020", but it just occurred to me - what if we get a better Bernie?

I'd rather people try to build a movement to influence policy leftwards from the bottom up--work on taking back state legislatures and governorships, push better Congressional candidates for 2018 and 2020, current Members not letting Schumer dick them around--than spending their energy trying to come up with someone to primary Clinton from the left and almost surely hand the election to the slicker Trump. Rather unsurprisingly, what I just described seems to exactly what Sanders is working on creating, and even the Busters (if they actually care) should be listening to him. And third parties, the Greens in particular, need to stop letting narcissistic dickbags get to the top of the ticket and spending 99.9% of their time and energy and money for that 5%. Focus on winning local and state races and build an actual party. Better yet: find POTUS candidates that (unlike Stein and Nader et al) actually care about downballot races and fundraising for their party rather than generating controversy.

Oh, and for the love of Dog, everybody avoid recruiting people who are willing to get their face on RT or Fox News purely of out of contrarian spite. This should be part of not being the aforementioned dickbags, but make sure just in case.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:12 AM on November 5, 2016 [35 favorites]

Is it harmful for me to use this mashup image of New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate Kelly Ayotte in a bathing suit, as a photo accompanying the following text in a FB post?

Why the heck is she in a bathing suit? Why is she wearing a tiara? Just use a regular picture of her with that text.
posted by sallybrown at 10:13 AM on November 5, 2016 [36 favorites]

the brownest of the brown liquors

I miss Phil Hartman.
posted by mikelieman at 10:15 AM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

Not a woman but why the need to conflate her ideological views with her body? Seems extremely, how do I put it kindly, counter-productive?
posted by localhuman at 10:16 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Why the heck is she in a bathing suit?

I don't know. It was the only image I could find of her wielding a gun.
posted by Coventry at 10:16 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Thanks for the feedback, everyone.
posted by Coventry at 10:16 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

And third parties, the Greens in particular, need to stop letting narcissistic dickbags get to the top of the ticket and spending 99.9% of their time and energy and money for that 5%. Focus on winning local and state races and build an actual party.

Complete this sentence: "After the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the ______ Party has the highest number of seats among State and National offices for any organized party."

You'd think it would be Libertarians, right? You'd be wrong.

Vermont Progressive Party

As of 2012, the party controls 10% of the Vermont Senate seats, and 3.3% of the seats in the Vermont House of Representatives. After the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, the Vermont Progressive Party has the highest number of seats among State and National offices for any organized party. (That's 9 lower and upper chamber seats, in one state; the Libertarians have 2 upper and 2 lower chamber seats, TOTAL, in all 50 states.)

Guess how they got started?

The Vermont Progressive Party originated [in 1999] with the independent campaign of Bernie Sanders for mayor of Burlington (previous to being elected mayor Sanders was a leader in the VT Liberty Union Party). Sanders, who was later elected to the United States House of Representatives, and subsequently to the United States Senate, never officially associated himself with the Progressive Party, although the Progressives were among his biggest supporters. A group of his supporters organized themselves as the Progressive Coalition to contest further elections.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:17 AM on November 5, 2016 [29 favorites]

So! in all the excitement of HRC with Beyonce and Jay Z and LeBron James in Cleveland, our little rally in Detroit got overlooked. My not-very-good photos are here.*

Doors were scheduled at 2:00, start time of 3:45, so I tried to get there by 1:30. I have a two-year-old, so that didn't happen, and I got there at 2:00. My daughter and I walked from our parking spot (free, close, and found with my mad street knowledge of Eastern Market), spotted the start of the line at Shed 3, then started following it to find the end. We walked. And walked. Then walked some more. The line stretched and wrapped around 3-4 blocks. The Free Press estimated 4,000 attendees. I will take them at their word, because my estimates tend to be of the '1, 2, many' variety.

The rally opened with Detroit Mayor, Mike Duggan, who gave a shout-out to Jesse Jackson (who was in attendance), then was followed by Dennis Williams, the UAW President. Unsurprisingly, the focus of both of their speeches was on building infrastructure, how Obama saved the auto industry, and HRC's support for unions. Dennis Williams also hit on the note of Trump claiming American workers make too much money, which you'd think would've been a more viable line of attack this campaign, but what do I know?

They were followed by Rep. Brenda Lawrence, who was my mayor in Southfield, MI for quite some time. She had my favorite line of the day, which came after commenting on Trump's gross misogyny and the necessity of women to make sure he loses: "Everyday I wake up, I know I'm a 10, because God made me in His image and no man can tell me what I'm worth." Rep. John Conyers followed her, and he was a bit more low-key and I think he was wearing a smoking jacket?

She was followed by Sen. Gary Peters, who gave a much more fiery speech than I expected. I had always seen him as a bit of a nebbish-y policy wonk - dude was a financial advisor, for chrissakes. Sen. Debbie Stabenow spoke on her many years of working with HRC on policies related to education and children's health/safety. Then - surprise! - Mark Cuban popped up, mostly to talk some shit against Trump and talk about profit-sharing with workers. He managed to avoid saying 'jagoff.'

Finally, Rev. Wendell Anthony, head of the Detroit NAACP, and showed EVERYONE up with his nigh-sermon introductory remarks for HRC. I wish there was a video somewhere because it was a delight and I only remember the line 'Then the FBI sent out their letter, which didn't make things any better.'

Then BAM, there she was. It was sort of weird seeing that she was a corporeal form and not a weird media invention. Here's her speech with a moment of Rev. Anthony's intro.

This was the 3rd rally I've attended in the past couple months, and it was by far, the most well-attended and lively. There was a real mix of folks of all ages, races, genders. While my 2yo didn't catch the messages, she found the whole affair had a good beat and she could dance to it. She came home with a lot to talk about and I hope this is a fond story for her when she's older. I think she'll accompany me for our canvassing on Monday and Tuesday AM.

*-apologies for photo quality, my spot on the floor was directly in line with the setting sun but by jove, i would get my HRC photo even if it sucked and/or gave me dude from Pi headaches forever
posted by palindromic at 10:19 AM on November 5, 2016 [49 favorites]

May I just say that the outbreaks of your well-earned, tightly-shepherded glee are punching little holes in the king-hell dread I've been carrying around with me these past many months (both the fraction I knew about and the part I wasn't even aware of)?

I thank you all for your GOTV efforts, your thoughtful analysis, your pointers to sources I'd never have been aware otherwise, and above all for your expressions of love and solidarity to one another. It's a beautiful thing to see, and still more beautiful to have been a part of, in however tiny a way.

Three more days. Let's do this thing.
posted by adamgreenfield at 10:21 AM on November 5, 2016 [20 favorites]

What's interesting is that Trump is basically giving up on Nevada and Colorado based on that list.

Based on demographics he's probably right but Michigan is HAHAHA territory.
posted by vuron at 10:22 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm sure I'm not the first to think of this, but he mentions of women being abused for supporting Hillary has me concerned about probable dangers to them on Tuesday. Are there resources we can start spreading (e.g., via twitter) now, in advance?

(I figure, abusers will find a reason to be abusive whether Hillary wins or loses.)
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:22 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'd rather people try to build a movement to influence policy leftwards from the bottom up--work on taking back state legislatures and governorships, push better Congressional candidates for 2018 and 2020, current Members not letting Schumer dick them around--than spending their energy trying to come up with someone to primary Clinton from the left and almost surely hand the election to the slicker Trump.

Have all my favorites and evens. If all the Bernie momentum gets channeled into primarying Clinton from the left in 2020, he failed, and his supporters failed, and they will have killed the country by giving us the second coming of Trump. Thanks, Brosef. The Presidency is the capstone of your political movement, it's not where you start. And building from the ground up working with Clinton, and pushing her incrementally in the progressive direction does two things 1) it builds up the roster of credible progressive politicians with actual records of accomplishments they can run on for decades to come and 2) it actually achieves your alleged policy goals, no, not all at once in a grand revolution, but bit by bit until the original goal is realized.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:25 AM on November 5, 2016 [46 favorites]

> Wow, normally I'm immune to campaign ads. I can appreciate them as being effective but damn I actually teared up with that Roar Ad. To close out an awful campaign season with a message of forward looking, a message of hope, and a message of triumph is a brilliant close to what seems like a brilliant campaign.

Yeah. It's an excellent closing ad.
posted by nangar at 10:26 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Sounds from this tweet like Paul Ryan had no clue Trump was going to cancel Wisconsin...heh.

More evidence that he's campaining as future TrumpTV folk hero Lonesome Rhodes and not as the Republican POTUS candidate.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 10:29 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I mean...sure. But I don't want that. I want the actual Hillary, and I find it kind of offensive that you think people are voting for some imaginary Actual Progressive that, what, they've tricked themselves into believing in, because they couldn't get someone better?

I'm thinking that most people voting for Hillary are not voting for the person who was instrumental in preventing a rise in the Haitian minimum wage and very supportive of the Honduran coup. There are all kinds of things where I think we can all sincerely differ (should Hillary support $15, or is $12 a better strategy? for instance; or even "how accurately are we assessing the Russian state's aggressiveness, and is Hillary's position intelligently strategic or too hawkish) but there are also significant things in her recent past that I think are legitimately disturbing to people of good conscience.

I'm excited to probably elect a woman president, but I would not be excited if we were electing someone positioned like Theresa May or Margaret Thatcher (that is, Hillary may be center-right by European terms, but she's center-left in US terms, so I feel much more enthused about her than I would about a comparable European figure, because she's pushing to the left; I would be unexcited about TM or MT because they are pushing to the right.)

If Hillary is elected and works to live up to her campaign (even if the Republicans try to prevent her delivering) I will absolutely vote for her in 2020. if she turns out to be Dream Hillary after all, I will be nothing but happy.

I mean, it's complicated. I think that most ordinary people who are not ideologized conservatives are better people than our political masters are, and I think that's actually a good thing.
posted by Frowner at 10:29 AM on November 5, 2016 [29 favorites]

I voted anti-fascist. Simple as that.
posted by Pope Guilty at 10:31 AM on November 5, 2016 [33 favorites]

Why the heck is she in a bathing suit?
I don't know. It was the only image I could find of her wielding a gun.
posted by Coventry at 10:16 AM on November 5 [+] [!]

I was all set to flame on, but something about the bewildered innocence of this cracked me up instead. Take heart. None of us knows why she's wearing a bathing suit while armed; it is unknowable.

This fucking election.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [49 favorites]

I will say that when I was talking about 2020, I was more thinking "if Hillary, god forbid, loses, or if there's some other real political change". If Hillary is acting on her campaign promises to the extent politically possible and hasn't done anything unlikely like plunged us into some new war (she's hawkish but nobody's fool, I mean come on) it wouldn't make sense to primary from the left in any but a "this is just performance art" way.
posted by Frowner at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

To close out an awful campaign season with a message of forward looking, a message of hope, and a message of triumph is a brilliant close to what seems like a brilliant campaign.

The lead-up to this election has been so hard. All of the negative stuff feels really personal. I had a major panic attack after the Trump "grab them" audio came out. I'm having election anxiety dreams. It's personal, high-stakes, and I hate so much of what has come out of it.

At the same time, it's reminded me of the time leading up to the vote on Prop 8 in California. Which I didn't remember, until looking at that Wiki link, was during the same general election as Obama's first run. I thought it was on an off-year for some reason. But anyway.

Being in California during the Prop 8 campaign was so disheartening and depressing. Talk about personal. The entire premise of the referendum was to determine whether I, personally, was entitled to the same rights as the people around me. And the public spoke through the ballot box, and they said No.

The lead-up to that vote was awful, but there were also these little blips of hope. I was at a street fair shortly before the election and there were a lot of presumably straight people with "No on Prop 8" buttons and T-shirts. And dammit if I didn't start crying in a public place, because it was like, "Okay, so there are people who feel hatred towards me and want to limit my rights, but there are also strangers who support people like me and are willing to say it even though they don't personally have anything at stake here."

And that's how Hillary's closing ad makes me feel. There has been so much hatred in this election, and Hillary is countering it with support for immigrants, and people of color, and the LGBTQ community, and she has a national platform in which to broadcast that support. That in itself is huge, to me. It's the diamond in the pig shit. Sucks to have to dig for it, but I'm glad to have found it.
posted by mudpuppie at 10:37 AM on November 5, 2016 [41 favorites]

Even if all the Clinton does in the next 4 years is block any attempts at undoing Obama's legacy and getting a liberal justice to replace Scalia and any other retirements then I will be content. Yes I would like more to be done but I think that depends on the 2018 midterms and whether the SCOTUS can be convinced to rule in favor of non-partisan congressional districts.

Until the next census in 2020 it's going to be hard to regain the House and let's be perfectly honest the House Republicans have no interest in actually governing.
posted by vuron at 10:38 AM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

So much winning you'll get sick of winning... against Romney and the 17 dwarves.

@GlennThrush:
Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.
posted by chris24 at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2016 [14 favorites]

Why the heck is she in a bathing suit?
I don't know.

Because the picture of a random female body her head was pasted on was wearing one.

You could use this, if you must have one:
http://www.reardonreports.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/ayotte-shooting-rifle-2.jpg
posted by queenofbithynia at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm going to New Hampshire tomorrow with a car full of Nasty Women (and maybe one Bad Hombre) to see Hillary speak. While I'm sad that I will have to wait until after the election to busk with Tim Kaine, I'm excited to see the woman for whom I cast my vote.
posted by pxe2000 at 10:42 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

You could use this, if you must have one

Perfect! Thank you!
posted by Coventry at 10:45 AM on November 5, 2016

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Makes sense. If Trump beats Romney, it vindicates the idea that Romney lost because he "wasn't conservative enough."
posted by J.K. Seazer at 10:46 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

If that rage seems somewhat misdirected, here’s an explanation: 40 years of well-funded, highly organized laissez-faire proselytizing and government-bashing have done a number on the American mind. The country got conned by a profound ideological shift, starting in the early 1970s as hardcore free-market, anti-government advocates launched a concerted effort to change the political landscape.

"The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing voters to think of themselves only as taxpayers"
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

If Trump beats Romney, it vindicates the idea that Romney lost because he "wasn't conservative enough."

Trump is conservative?
posted by mazola at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

So Beyonce has made into my parents Facebook feed. I got the question "Who is she? I've heard the name and know she's a singer. Is she a big celebrity? This concert was a big deal then?"

Well...let me tell you Mom and Dad...

So now we have a date tonight. Going out for dinner, buying some snacks on the way home and then I'm showing them Lemonade.

Can't wait to see what they think, coming to it, knowing next to nothing.
posted by Jalliah at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2016 [35 favorites]

Makes sense. If Trump beats Romney, it vindicates the idea that Romney lost because he "wasn't conservative enough."

Which really just goes to show. The actual goal is beating Hillary Rodham.
posted by mikelieman at 10:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Based on demographics he's probably right but Michigan is HAHAHA territory.

Like, I know that there are Trump supporters in MI, but I don't actually know any of them.

Not that my Facebook feed is representative of MI demographics, but apparently know a lot of Clinton haters, and almost all stopped posting about how horrible she was shortly after Trump got the nomination, and I've never seen anything actually positive about Trump from any of my MI Facebook friends.

So even my most hardcore Republican MI family and friends are embarrassed of him.

The closest encounter I had with hardcore Trump supporters in MI, at least those willing to voice it, was at a bar where about half a dozen middle age white men, all in town for a reunion, were discussing how we need a business man to fix things, and how he just doesn't say the right things but means well.

These very knowledgeable business men also spent a good amount of time complaining about how much the bar had changed since back in the day and how it wouldn't last much longer: the bar was packed (as always) and the last remodel was over 5 years ago. I think they were upset about all of the craft beers available in addition to the typical Bud/Miller light.

So I question their judgement and grip on reality on multiple levels.
posted by ghost phoneme at 10:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

PSA for those in Pennsylvania, with friends there, or doing GOTV there: a program's been set up to give voters free Lyft or Uber rides to the polls on Tuesday. Folks in other places can also donate via that link to fund more rides.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Sid Miller has dropped down Donald's ~~Alzheimer's~~ memory hole.

Note to self: If by some calamity Trump actually does win this election, invest in airbrushes and Adobe because the Minitrue is going to be working overtime.
posted by Talez at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I add that when I'm all "oh I am so critical of Hillary" bear in mind that I come from a political background where "voting endorses a corrupt and imperialist system" is a a commonplace belief. The amount of Hillary-enthusiasm required to move the needle for me from "Democrats, yeah whatever, like they believe in democracy, look at American history" to "well, Hillary Clinton actually seems like a pretty darn good candidate considering how American presidential candidates go, even though I have serious reservations" is huge. Considered in relation to other people in general, I seem like a skeptic, but considering my typical approach, I am a superfan.
posted by Frowner at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2016 [28 favorites]

re: all of Trump's campaign stops in the last days of the election, an interesting take from elsewhere:

I can guarantee you he is flying as much as possible for one reason, like everything Trump touches it is basically a scam.

See he is charging his campaign full market value for flying his plane, i.e. he is billing the campaign for the plane as if he just chartered it on the open market which is obviously much more expensive than it costs him to operate it. That money goes right into his pocket. Secondly almost every person on the plane are Secret Service agents which means they are required by law to reimburse Trump full market value for their use of the plane.

Trump wasn't flying back every night because he was obsessed with sleeping in his own bed, his freaking plane has a bed, he was flying back to scam as much money out of the federal government and his campaign as possible. And on top of it he will probably take a tax deduction for depreciation on the plane because of all the flying he did.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2016 [68 favorites]

Like, I know that there are Trump supporters in MI, but I don't actually know any of them.

Aren't the ring of white suburbs around Detroit notoriously racist, having been more or less created to allow white people to benefit from proximity to Detroit while not living near black people?
posted by Pope Guilty at 10:54 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump is conservative?

"Conservative" has no meaning now other than maximal white grievance. There's no coherent set of conservative policy ideas that haven't already been tried and failed, and the Republican party is split between trying them more bigly, and even more bigly but also with overt racist intent. So yes, Mitt Romney wasn't conservative enough because he didn't campaign on throwing Obama in prison. Trump did, he's a true "conservative".
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:58 AM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

considering my typical approach, I am a superfan.

That's pretty close to where I am, too.
posted by Coventry at 10:59 AM on November 5, 2016

That's sort of what I mean, but didn't make clear.

I know and am related to a lot of white people from SE Michigan (of which I am one), many of whom are Republicans who loath Clinton (I do not belong to that group). And even they can't stand Trump, and calmed down drastically on the Clinton hate once Trump locked in.

So from my perspective, Trump has a snowball's chance in hell in MI.
posted by ghost phoneme at 11:00 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

We've reached the singularity.
posted by guiseroom at 11:02 AM on November 5, 2016 [107 favorites]

If Trump beats Romney, it vindicates the idea that Romney lost because he "wasn't conservative enough."

I think it's more like - If Trump beats Romney, it vindicates the idea that Trump is DEFINITELY the coolest kid in the sixth grade and also he's DEFINITELY a better and real billionaire and also he never got left out of the sleepover at the real billionaire's club, his invite was just lost in the mail, ok? Everyone knows that.
posted by sallybrown at 11:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [28 favorites]

We've reached the singularity.

Which one is the candidate again?
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:03 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Which one is the candidate again?

The gooey, cheesy one wrapped in yellow paper.
posted by mochapickle at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

We've reached the singularity.

Would "Yo dawg" work here?
posted by Cookiebastard at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

I just got into my first Facebook argument about politics since the primaries.

I'm normally pretty good about these things, but a self-identified reasonable Republican said that the Democrats need to start compromising more and talk more about policy if they want reasonable Republicans to vote for Clinton. Otherwise, we're all too nasty and he'll just stay home. As we're all in Florida, I noted that he was indulging in some emotional blackmail... and it went downhill from there.

I'm ashamed of myself, mostly. But also... how does one even talk to someone who clearly sees Trump as a dumpster fire but doesn't want to vote if I hurt his feelings by pointing out that Republicans are the ones who refuse to even hold a hearing about Garland? How is that not grandstanding and emotional blackmail?
posted by JustKeepSwimming at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

Which one is the candidate again?

The MeFites on the Blue looked from food to man, and from man to food, and from food to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2016 [43 favorites]

We've reached the singularity.

I wish this photo could be in the thread. It belongs here, with us, the original McMuFinn-knowers.
posted by sallybrown at 11:07 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

@sahilkapur: This is a remarkable mea culpa from Bill Maher on how he treated Republican nominees before Trump. [Video of Bill Maher arguing that liberals cried wolf about Bush and Romney.]

Bush, whose policies killed and continue to kill tens of thousands, was definitely actually good compared to Trump. Thanks, Bill
posted by Rustic Etruscan at 11:08 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

If Trump beats Romney, it vindicates the idea that Romney lost because he "wasn't conservative enough."

It's the prize for best LOSER
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:08 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

> Which one is the candidate again?

I don't even now anymore. Maybe we're the candidate and Egg's the MetaFilter.
posted by guiseroom at 11:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

There were some comments here about texting for HRC. Does anyone know if that's something you can sign up to do from home?

This is from who knows how many comments up, but I wanted to answer: unfortunately, you can't do this from home, and I don't know how many campaign HQs are set up to do this at all aside from ones in NYC and LA. One of the volunteer coordinators told me that they'd only recently gotten the go ahead from legal to let volunteers do this texting at all, and that previously, it had been staff doing it whenever they could spare the time. Apparently, it's illegal to mass text people who haven't opted in, so the campaign has some software set up so that you can text people individually, sort of like with the predictive dialer system, only you need to have someone actually push the "send" button for each text, hence the need for volunteers. They're only letting volunteers do this with secured phones from campaign HQs, i.e., you hand a coordinator your ID, and they give you a phone or two to send texts from. You're not writing the text yourself; there's a template text that's basically a reminder to vote with a link to the Hillary website with polling location information etc.
posted by yasaman at 11:09 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

how does one even talk to someone who clearly sees Trump as a dumpster fire but doesn't want to vote if I hurt his feelings by pointing out that Republicans are the ones who refuse to even hold a hearing about Garland? How is that not grandstanding and emotional blackmail?

Waste of time at the moment. Find more productive people to talk to.
posted by Coventry at 11:10 AM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I signed up for the call team days ago, but only just got the nerve together to make my first calls. Four no answers and one "already voted". I hate being on the phone, and was extra-nervous about this because I've got a clearly non-US accent, so thanks to everyone here for the encouragement.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 11:11 AM on November 5, 2016 [44 favorites]

In other helping out questions -- I've opted out of canvassing this weekend as I have had the cold from hell and do not want to make my fellow Democrats sick. It also means that I lose my voice fairly easily. Are there things I can do that aren't canvassing and phone banking right now?
posted by JustKeepSwimming at 11:12 AM on November 5, 2016

What the gutting of the VRA and a R legislature and governor have wrought. Thankfully they'll be able to vote some of them out when they are finally able to vote. But great to see such interest in voting.

@seangallitz:
People at the front of the early voting line @NCState told me they have been here for 3.5 hours. Easily a thousand people behind them still
posted by chris24 at 11:12 AM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

Like, I know that there are Trump supporters in MI, but I don't actually know any of them.

There is one of Michigan stock, but he is lonely and (quite possibly) cold and he gets interviewed; linked from the post of the next election thread... #cryptic
posted by Wordshore at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

how does one even talk to someone who clearly sees Trump as a dumpster fire but doesn't want to vote if I hurt his feelings by pointing out that Republicans are the ones who refuse to even hold a hearing about Garland? How is that not grandstanding and emotional blackmail?

I would point out exactly this, pretty much just as you wrote it. Then I'd tell him this is why I refuse to engage in further conversation and walk away.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:13 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Can anyone weigh in on Ohio? Everyone I know there is conservative to moderate. They think very highly of Rob Portman and are meh on Kasich. But Clinton appears to have never really had a shot there...any on-the-ground info from the Buckeye State?

Polling's been pretty unfavorable for the Dems for a while, however it looks as if Clinton's campaign is making an eleventh-hour play for the state now, investing more heavily in GOTV than they had been. That means that either they have a lot of money to spare and are going for their stretch goals, or else it means that their internal polling suggests it's winnable. It will probably be close either way. I'd put it well behind FL, NC, and NH for winnable states though.
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I signed up for the call team days ago, but only just got the nerve together to make my first calls. Four no answers and one "already voted". I hate being on the phone, and was extra-nervous about this because I've got a clearly non-US accent, so thanks to everyone here for the encouragement.

I'm diving in now. I'm so bad at the phone and I'm so extra super bad at asking strangers to do things. Here's goes ~~McMuffin~~ nuthin'.
posted by sallybrown at 11:15 AM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

Say I wanted to send pizzas to a call center. How would one do this? Can one do this?
I'm in CA so I'd prefer to do it somewhere swingier.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 11:16 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I voted last week. The only obstacle I had to overcome was my own inertia, which was somehow preventing me from driving two miles downtown to drop off my ballot. And the only obstacle I needed to overcome was a smart-ass poll observer being a smart-ass:

"Just drop your ballot in the giant silver election box."
"This one?"
"No, the other giant silver election box."

My husband got the same guy -
"Thank you for voting in this ridiculous election"
(Other observer, sotto-voce) "Bob, you can't keeping saying that."

So on one hand, yay me for voting. On the other, the discrepancy between my experience and so many others is fucking disgusting, not just that it exists at all but that it's not causing more of an outrage. I mean, yes mass-disenfranchisement is a shame, but it's no private email server.
posted by bibliowench at 11:16 AM on November 5, 2016 [27 favorites]

how does one even talk to someone who clearly sees Trump as a dumpster fire but doesn't want to vote if I hurt his feelings by pointing out that Republicans are the ones who refuse to even hold a hearing about Garland? How is that not grandstanding and emotional blackmail?

Return it, tell the person you don't want to argue about the election but you respect them enough to know they see what's at stake here and no matter their beliefs on any individual issues, they'll do what's best for the country and vote for the person they believe to be the best option for keeping it together for the next four years..
posted by gusottertrout at 11:18 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

BREATHE EASIER: Early Voters Give Hillary Clinton Much Needed Firewall in Swing States - Donald Trump’s hateful rhetoric does appear to have a price, as record increases in African Americans and Latinos heading early to the polls in key swing states has given Hillary Clinton some breathing room

"If early voting in key battleground states is any indication, the Republican nominee may be dead in the water before the polls open Tuesday morning. Strategists have been crowing for months about Donald Trump’s utter lack of in-state political organization and the power of the Clinton voter turnout machine.

That infrastructure—girded by door-to-door campaigning, automated text messages and volunteer phone banks—has already begun to pay off. According to NBC News, the Clinton camp has reportedly made “45 million direct voter contacts since start of early voting and has nearly one million [volunteers] this weekend.”

In at least two states, North Carolina and Nevada, Clinton appears to have built a firewall. Few states, however, are as important to Trump as North Carolina. “If Mr. Trump does not win the state, his path to the presidency – already narrow – becomes nearly impossible,” writes Nate Cohn for the New York Times.

“Already, about 2,585,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,574,000 we think will eventually vote,” says Cohn. “Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 9 percentage points – among people who have already voted."

posted by chris24 at 11:24 AM on November 5, 2016 [22 favorites]

Can anyone weigh in on Ohio? Everyone I know there is conservative to moderate. They think very highly of Rob Portman and are meh on Kasich. But Clinton appears to have never really had a shot there...any on-the-ground info from the Buckeye State?

As every year, it's up to the large metro counties. Unfortunately, I've heard that early voting - a Dem strong point - in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is down compared to 2012.

Honestly, I hope we go Clinton, but since she doesn't really need us, I wouldn't mind terribly if we don't. I'm really sick of the whole "As Ohio goes, so goes the Nation" bellwether state nonsense. We're not keeping up with the rest of the nation demographically. We're older, whiter, and less educated.
posted by zakur at 11:26 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

We've reached the singularity.

Hold on.
McMullins running mate's name is actually Mindy Finn? Seriously?

I mean, that makes those McMuffin jokes all the more obvious, but still... I had no idea...
Just when you think this election couldn't possibly get any weirder...
posted by sour cream at 11:28 AM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

Greene County is located in southwest Missouri, more densely populated than its neighboring Ozark counties, due to its county seat, the city of Springfield, where three-fifths of the county’s people live. Ninety-three percent of those people are white. In 1906, it was the scene of the notoriously horrific lynching murder of three African American men, which caused an exodus of African American families from the area. The reason it's still so white, may have to do with the sheer volume of very loud and obvious white supremacists that are still there.

Given the history, and current state of white supremacy in this area, the news this week that armed, uniformed sheriffs deputies will be stationed in Greene County polling places is not comforting.

Under Missouri law, law enforcement officers cannot enter polling stations except when exercising their duties or when expressly requested by election officials. That request was made by the Republican county clerk.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:29 AM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Yahoo News has put together a collection of Trump-inspired T-shirts worn by his fans.

I was trying to find my "favorite" but it was pretty difficult because they are celebrating Trump and often celebrating misogyny at the same time. Maybe this one because it is such a head scratcher.

Or maybe this one because the picture of Trump is so bizarre.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 11:31 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

First few minutes of one of my favorite comics (Rory Scoville) on Conan the other night is all Election and very funny.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Pope Francis back at in time for Mass tomorrow:

“No tyranny can be sustained without exploiting our fears. This is clear,” the pope said in Spanish. “All tyranny is terrorist. And when that terror ignited in the peripheries with massacres, looting, oppression, and injustice explodes in the centers in the form of violence, including with hateful and cowardly intent, the citizens who still have some rights are tempted by the false security of walls, physical or social—walls that close some in and banish others.”

“Is this the life that our father God wants for us?” he asked. Later in the speech, Francis also criticized “false prophets that exploit fear and hopelessness to sell magical formulas of hate and cruelty.”

posted by sallybrown at 11:32 AM on November 5, 2016 [46 favorites]

Just finished my first round of phone banking - had originally planned to canvass but the office asked us to phone bank instead. The first few were really tough (I have pretty bad social anxiety) but it got a bit easier after a while. It was about what I expected: lots and lots of hangups/answering machines, a few "do not call me", and one cantankerous Trump supporter (ugh). I did talk to a few friendly Hillary supporters though, and even helped one arrange transportation to the polls. Glad to do what I can to make Virginia blue :)

Also for any fellow introverts freaked out by calling strangers - it's not as bad as you'd think, and you can go at your own pace. Working at the precinct office helped me stay motivated as well (I also took in snacks and a case of water, which they definitely appreciated).
posted by photo guy at 11:34 AM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

Hold on.
McMullins running mate's name is actually Mindy Finn? Seriously?

Technically no. But actually yes. It's complicated!
posted by Wordshore at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Thanks, yasaman, for the info about texting. I found a texting event in DC tomorrow!
posted by amarynth at 11:38 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Say I wanted to send pizzas to a call center. How would one do this? Can one do this?

Yeah, just call them first to see if someone else did, how many people are there, etc. I'd do it locally since all volunteers are calling swing states by now.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

McMuffins for McMuFinn
posted by VTX at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I really want to know more about the connection between Trump and the National Enquirer. Besides the most recent news of them paying to suppress a Trump story, they were also the ones that reported on Cruz's supposed affairs.
posted by drezdn at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

@burner: Working the Election? Phone Banking? Get a free, unlimited use Burner number to use between now and Election Day
posted by Lexica at 11:40 AM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I really want to know more about the connection between Trump and the National Enquirer.

TPM: Enquiring Minds Want To Know: Just How Cozy Are Trump And National Enquirer?

New York mag: Donald Trump’s Alliance With the National Enquirer
posted by chris24 at 11:43 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

THIS CHART: 800+ Polling Places Closed Since SCOTUS Gutted The Voting Rights Act

Hey, that map looks kinda familiar.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Oh no, Dave Chappele. :-(
posted by Artw at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Like, I know that there are Trump supporters in MI, but I don't actually know any of them.

Oh, I know 'em. Mostly people from my very small town who never got out (mentally or physically). Some are relatives, but judicious blocking on social media has kept me sane. I live in a little blue bubble but not too far away is a mostly rural county that's one of the reddest places in the state. Michigan is gerrymandered to heck and that's why our state government and US House reps are red, but the state reliably goes blue for US Senate and President.

Aren't the ring of white suburbs around Detroit notoriously racist, having been more or less created to allow white people to benefit from proximity to Detroit while not living near black people?

Somewhat. I mean, yes, that's why the suburbs were created and there are still heavily white pockets. But there are also suburbs that have subsequently become quite integrated. Of course, a lot of the racists just moved farther out, into the still rural areas. Many of them now work IN the suburbs and commute out to the rural communities.
posted by Preserver at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

My timeline is having a pretty interesting conversation about how the Observer (owned by Jared Kushner) posted a report from their beauty columnist (last article: The Best Post-Brexit Cult Beauty Bargains) on Dave Chappelle's show last night, saying (with quotes) that he defended Trump and attacked Hillary's supposed role in releasing the Access Hollywood tape. This is noteworthy, of course, because Chappelle is hosting SNL next week and will be back in the news in a big way. Doreen St. Félix (a writer for MTV News and formerly Lenny Letter) was there, and says "this isn't really what happened, the reporting is selective" and "I went to the chappelle set and i promise you he was not defending trump. he did say a lot of shit i balked at but not that".
posted by acidic at 11:53 AM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh no, Dave Chappele. :-(

2016 has been the sort of year where you really need to distinguish better between e.g. "Dave Chappele has suddenly died" and "Dave Chappele incorporated some political beefing about Clinton, who he has voted for, into his standup comedy".
posted by cortex at 11:54 AM on November 5, 2016 [40 favorites]

Oh no, Dave Chappele. :-(

His beef is that he thinks the Clinton camp leaked the Access Hollywood tape? Ugh. Anyway, I've been wondering about that and I just don't think it's true. I guess the logic would be: leak the tape to throw Trump completely off his game for the debates. But it would've made much more sense to have the tape drop in the last Friday of October so that the news cycle during the final gasp of early voting and the election was completely dominated by Trump's nastiness. And I think the Clinton camp is smart enough to come to the same conclusion, ergo, I think the tape came out because of journalists, not Clinton.
posted by dis_integration at 11:56 AM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Oh no, Dave Chappele. :-(

I honestly thought he'd died. /heartattack
posted by mochapickle at 11:58 AM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

And he also said that what Trump described isn't sexual harassment?

Not cool, Dave, not cool.
posted by saturday_morning at 11:59 AM on November 5, 2016 [21 favorites]

Adjacent headlines on Politico:
Trump has a problem with Jay-Z's language
Trump touts Texas official who called Clinton a ‘c---'
posted by kirkaracha at 11:59 AM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

Seriously, can we take a breath before we destroy Chappelle based on a report from a woman who is employed by Trump's son-in-law and attended social media training from the Trump campaign?
posted by acidic at 12:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

This part was much worse than where he thinks the video came from:

He continued to say that he doesn't believe Trump's comments to Bush were admitting to sexual assault in the recorded conversation. "Sexual assault? It wasn't. He said, 'And when you're a star, they let you do it.' That phrase implies consent," Chappelle said. "I just don't like the way the media twisted that whole thing. Nobody questioned it."

posted by J.K. Seazer at 12:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

And he also said that what Trump described isn't sexual harassment?

That's the worst part I think. The whole ' "They let you do it" implies consent' bullshit straight from the alt right. Uugh.
posted by zakur at 12:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Nobody questioned it because it SO CLEARLY DID NOT IMPLY CONSENT.
posted by mochapickle at 12:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

I really want to know more about the connection between Trump and the National Enquirer.

The National Enquirer was owned for a long time by Generoso Pope, Jr., a businessman with allegedly very strong ties to the Genovese crime family. You ain't gotta go through Kevin Bacon to connect that line to Donald Trump.
posted by Sys Rq at 12:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Seriously, can we take a breath before we destroy Chappelle based on a report from a woman who is employed by Trump's son-in-law and attended social media training from the Trump campaign?

I mean I definitely hope the quote is inaccurate, but if they were just making up shit Chappelle said, they would probably not have included the part where he voted for HRC.

Anyway he'll have plenty of opportunity to address the situation if he was misquoted. He's hosting SNL after the election.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:04 PM on November 5, 2016

People at the front of the early voting line @NCState told me they have been here for 3.5 hours. Easily a thousand people behind them still

While McCrory gurns with Trump in Wilmington.

Ohio? I think it's just a case of "go where the numbers tell you to go." There's nothing head-fakey on the schedule right now like a trip to Atlanta (though there's still room for events to be added) and surrogates everywhere. Kasich retains overall command of the state GOP's GOTV operation, so why not test its limits?
posted by holgate at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2016

I mean I definitely hope the quote is inaccurate, but if they were just making up shit Chappelle said, they would probably not have included the part where he voted for HRC.

I mean there is a talented, trustworthy WOC journalist saying that the piece is not an accurate representation of his set, but okay!
posted by acidic at 12:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Chappelle is a comedic genius, but if you think being an apologist for rape culture is outside of the norm for him you haven't been paying attention.
posted by joedan at 12:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

Three paths that deliver Trump the win

If Trump wins Florida and Ohio and North Carolina (and protects the GOP turn of Arizona and Utah and Georgia), he would stand at 253 electoral votes — 17 shy of the magic number of 270.Those final 17 electoral votes have proved trickiest. Here are his treacherous paths:

1. Win the Keystone State
Pennsylvania (20): 273 electoral votes

2. Cobble together four states
Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Maine-2 (1), New Hampshire (4): 270 electoral votes

3. Pull off a shocker
Combine Iowa (6) and/or Nevada (6) with some wild card state: Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5)

States linked to HuffPost Pollster composite polls.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Just to note, today is the day the campaign kicks into top gear (our office opened a second place exclusively for phone banking.) So if you were thinking of phone banking now is a good time!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I don't think any of those paths are viable. I think he'll lose at least Florida and North Carolina out of the base states he needs, has no chance to win Pennsylvania, will lose Nevada and New Hampshire, and has no chance in any of the wild card states.

I'd love to see Hills win Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio but I'm trying to stay data-driven and I've been going by the HuffPost Pollster composite polls all along.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

kirkaracha- VA is DEFINITELY not happening, and based on early voting NV is not happening either. That would leave Pennsylvania... Which has been one of the steadiest states in terms of polling... and even then, winning NC or FL would make it not matter.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Do we have the same data about Florida that we have about Nevada early voting? What's the story there? I'd find Florida going blue to be a lot more reassuring.
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:22 PM on November 5, 2016

Stolen from a friend's Facebook
Me: Who are we voting for on Tuesday?
Toddler: HILLARY CLINTON
Me: And who do we want as our next president?
Toddler: HILLARY CLINTON
Me: And what we will call her as president?
Toddler: GHOSTBUSTERS
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [117 favorites]

> "Do we have the same data about Florida that we have about Nevada early voting? What's the story there?"

Some good signs, but they're not considered a guarantee. As of yesterday, Florida early voting stood at:

Republicans: 2,093,586 (39.74%)
Democrats: 2,091,753 (39.71%)
NPA: 769,241 (20.55%)

And there is apparently at least some reason to believe that the No Party Affiliation vote may favor the Democrats. However, even if so, things are likely close again in Florida so turnout and GOTV are going to matter A LOT.
posted by kyrademon at 12:26 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

To add to what kyrademon said: some poll data is also suggesting substantial R->D presidential crossover voting, which would move a good chunk of those R early voting numbers over to HRC's side. It's an encouraging data point, but no, it's not anywhere near the reassurance we're getting out of NV. It'll be a GOTV game for sure.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Also influencing the R crossover possibility in Florida is that Cuban-Americans, traditionally a strong R constituency, are polling only at 49-42 Trump over Clinton. Cubans comprise 6.5% of the Florida population so in a state as close as Florida is traditionally, the crossover there alone could swing the state.
posted by chris24 at 12:34 PM on November 5, 2016

Election threaders - would there be interest in a Metatalk post where we can share our various electoral college predictions (through the make-your-own-maps at 270towin.com) and maybe projected Senate and House counts, as well as any state-specific predictions people have? We could give a deadline of Tuesday at noon?

For bragging rights, not $$. Mostly because I'm lazy and don't want to coordinate anything.
posted by sallybrown at 12:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Also a huge number of Hispanic early voters in Florida are first-time or low-frequency voters, meaning polling wouldn't have accounted for them in likely voter screens.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:36 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Unless the early votes are numerous enough to imply the likely outcome in and of themselves, you shouldn't put much confidence in the trend they suggest.
posted by Coventry at 12:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'd like to add that my wife and I are planning a delayed honeymoon to Puerto Rico in February, and if displaced Puertorriqueños actually do end up putting Hillary over the top in Florida, I promise to spend an irresponsible amount of money there and personally restart the economy to the best of my ability.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [41 favorites]

Politico's Marc Caputo on MSNBC: Trump has stopped using his main pollster (Tony Fabrizio) because of the ongoing dispute over Fabrizio's $750k bill. That's almost too hilarious to be true but also completely believable.
posted by holgate at 12:39 PM on November 5, 2016 [52 favorites]

Thank god for Women and Minority voters being willing to save White Males from ourselves.

Mostly, we're trying to save ourselves, our bodies, and the hard-won recognition of our rights and humanity...

It's a bit of a mistake, imo, to center saving white men as a major reason for why marginalised communities are voting the way(s) they are.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 12:41 PM on November 5, 2016 [42 favorites]

BREAKING: Judge Sides With RNC In Ballot Security Consent Decree Case

Ugh
posted by the return of the thin white sock at 12:41 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

My wife and I are going to the Katy Perry GotV concert tonight. This is the first campaign event I have ever gone to but then the choices have never been quite so stark.
posted by nolnacs at 12:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

What are the consequences of the ballot security ruling? I tried to read the decision but it's all over my head.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:46 PM on November 5, 2016

Our greatest TV president explains how much one vote means.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 12:54 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

What are the consequences of the ballot security ruling? I tried to read the decision but it's all over my head.

He denied the DNCs motions for sanctions, and for a quick injuction. He also denied, for now, the DNC's request for extension of the decades old consent decree, but left open the possibility of revisiting that decision through additional discovery after the election. He found there was not currently enough evidence of RNC coordination.

Basically the RNC won, for now, and as long as there's no smoking gun of RNC involvement in planning election day thuggery, they will win again and the consent decree will expire next year.

If there's big problems on election day, this case isn't closed. If everything goes smooth, it probably will be.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:54 PM on November 5, 2016

Be like Joe Biden (twitter video)
posted by une_heure_pleine at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Charles Pierce: I've Finally Had It with Trump. I don't know why, but this was the gross public lie that broke the camel's back.

The Rude Pundit: Last Note to Trump Voters: You Are Wrong and You Are Shit and Your Candidate Is Shit
posted by homunculus at 12:57 PM on November 5, 2016 [40 favorites]

Also as noted by Rick Hasen, the RNC's lawyers here made pretty specific representations to the court about what the RNC was planning for election day, namely, no intimidation tactics. If it turns out there's widespread intimidation anyway...those lawyers could be personally on the line in a pretty big way.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

Republicans Don't Want Minorities to Vote. Here's the Proof. Voter suppression is now happening coast to coast.
posted by homunculus at 12:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh my, the graph on 538 looks like it is hitting a critical point-- bottoming out! Now I just have to resist looking for another few minutes.
posted by TreeRooster at 1:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

In reflecting on @roomthreeseventeen's post above, I think it is interesting that in the past year or so, we have had women as the main protagonists in three franchises, Star Wars, Mad Max, and Ghostbusters. Noticeably vocal in their harassment and griping about said choices, have been MRA's/alt righters. I hope Furiosa/Rey/Dr. Yates wins this election.

Now I find myself humming Aretha Franklin/Annie Lennox's duet to myself. Sisters are certainly doing it for themselves.
posted by nikitabot at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Hey guys, I seriously just had an actual Egg McMuffin on my way back from dropping off a friend at the airport. I could not resist.

It was disgusting, but it felt righteous to order it.
posted by spitbull at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

@steveschale
Overall EV diversity in Florida through Friday:
White: 67.5%
Black: 12.4%
Hispanic: 14.6%

Definitely trending more diverse than 2012.
2/2
posted by chris24 at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2016

Lol, fivethirtyeight still has NV as going red. I'm following @fivethirtynate instead.

Molten variables hiss and roar. On my mind-forge, I hammer them into the greatsword Epistemology. Many are my foes this night.

posted by Existential Dread at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Oh no, Dave Chappele. :-(

He's never been great about women.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

I don't know why people don't like Egg McMuffins. They're just Eggs Benedict without sauce.
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Also @steveschale: One more thing: Remember how I told you Wednesday was record day for AfAm turnout in FL...until Thursday? Well, Friday beat them both.
posted by sallybrown at 1:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

Meanwhile, McMuffins for the McMullins.
posted by Dr. Zira at 1:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Let's stop posting that McMuffins image. It's been posted several times now, we've seen it.
posted by Too-Ticky at 1:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

> They're just Eggs Benedict without sauce.

Do you even realize the implications of what you've just said?
posted by contraption at 1:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

Really, that court decision hasn't given RNC an inch. It's simply concluded that the DNC has not demonstrated the RNC to be in violation of its consent decree. It's clear from reading the decision that the RNC is in for a very rough time if any convincing evidence arises of it participating in voter intimidation / fraud mitigation / "hauling voters away in a cage attached to a pickup truck" (see p. 25.)

The most disappointing thing is that the Trump campaign is not subject to the consent decree, but the decision does say on p. 25

The Court notes that, unfortunately, such calls for uninformed, vigilante enforcement of voting laws carries with it the very real possibility of subjecting the adherents to legal violations. Among other laws, the Voting Rights Act provides, in part, that “[n]o person . . . shall intimidate, threaten, or coerce, or attempt to intimidate, threaten, or coerce any person for voting or attempting to vote[.]” 52 U.S.C. § 10307(b). From the evidence submitted by the DNC, it appears that some individuals who plan on “watching” polls in “certain areas” are not even aware of the law or its contours. Moreover, such broad calls to action, without specific training as to what is legally permissible, creates untrained watchers with no credible guidance. What are they to watch for? Who are they to watch? Where are they to watch? How are they to act when watching? What action are they to take? What action are they to refrain from? To whom are they supposed to report? What is legally permissible? What is unlawful? Without specific guidance, the “watchers” are left to answer these critical questions for themselves.

Probably also worth noting that the judge is an Obama appointee.
posted by Coventry at 1:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

The secret Hillary group on FB has grown by over 300,000 people since I joined yesterday. ... 837K members total

SHHHH! It's a SECRET.
posted by msalt at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think Nate Silver is having a bad day (twitter).
posted by sallybrown at 1:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I think Nate Silver is having a bad day (twitter).

He's seeing his brand tanking this time in 4 years. No one reads 538 for their other articles, and if he blows his one signature thing by over correcting for his Trump primary call...
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Thanks for the add @palomar. I've added 3 people of my own! The FB group already has 10k more members since I joined about 40 minutes ago!!!
posted by nikitabot at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't know why people don't like Egg McMuffins. They're just Eggs Benedict without sauce.

I have loved Egg McMuffins for years, and think they should win a Nobel Prize for Engineering. When McDonalds went breakfast all day, I did some serious bingeing.

But since they put in the 2 for $4 deal around here, they kill my stomach. Did they change a major ingredient or something? I don't know, but as good as that deal is I can't handle it any more.

Luckily I still like Bacon, Egg and Cheese Biscuits.
posted by msalt at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2016

I think Nate Silver is having a bad day (twitter).

Yeah, I just saw that. This is where the lack of transparency on his model and the constant cassandraing is backfiring on Silver. It's all well and good to say "but we actually test our empirically based model," but when your predictions have been out of line with all the others for some time now, people are going to pick at the flaws or ignore you, unless you provide evidence for your findings.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I just checked and was disappointed that the first page of Google results for "Egg McMuffin" are all about the sandwich. Step up your game, Google!
posted by Pope Guilty at 1:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

We all know you have to link Egg McMuffin to his wikipedia page on as many occasions as possible if you want different Google results. Be the change you want to see in the world.
posted by zachlipton at 1:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I continue to be baffled by the 538 hate (53h8?). He's got a model, he's feeding it the data. It's more volatile than other models. That's either right, or a mistake. But I doubt he's doing it just to get pageviews. Maybe. I'm not that cynical yet. I think he genuinely believes in his model. Just because you don't like his forecast doesn't make him an evil demon.
posted by dis_integration at 1:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

I don't get the 538 hate. It seems pretty clear that he's attempting to include an "unknown unknown" term of poll instability in his prediction that the other models are not.
posted by Skorgu at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

I think Nate Silver is having a bad day (twitter).

I feel like part of what's going on with Silver this election is that he doesn't actually care that much about politics. He was a sports guy first and foremost, and his actual political convictions are sort of vaguely libertarian in a fairly unconsidered way as I recall. He got into the politics prediction racket because everyone else was providing analysis that was laughably bad, fact-free, and clearly pushing narratives, so it was easy to provide a better alternative. Now everyone else has caught up to him there, but he's locked into a whole career spending all his time talking about things he doesn't really like or care about, and I think that's why his work this cycle has been so poor. He's burned out and being pushed/slouching into a role as a pundit that he hates. He's tried to quit before, I wouldn't be shocked if he did again after this election.
posted by Copronymus at 1:28 PM on November 5, 2016 [29 favorites]

> They're just Eggs Benedict without sauce.

Good God, don't start the Eggs Benedict derail again! We're still burping from the last one.
posted by languagehat at 1:34 PM on November 5, 2016 [14 favorites]

He's tried to quit before, I wouldn't be shocked if he did again after this election.

Approved.

*clik* Steve? Get me Sam Wang.
posted by petebest at 1:34 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

My grandfather is 95, born just after women won the right to vote. He was a paratrooper on D-Day and helped liberate concentration camps during WWII, fighting off literal armed fascists. There's a good chance right now that he won't be alive in a month. And last week, in one of the last substantive things he will ever do on this earth, he fought fascism again and voted for Hillary Clinton.
posted by zachlipton at 1:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [207 favorites]

Like, if 538 says 66% chance HRC wins, and PEC says >99% chance she wins, and she DOES win, it's not like PEC was ... righter.
posted by penduluum at 1:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win.

He's so fucking wrong.
posted by Sophie1 at 1:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Folks have posted above about the Enquirer covering up Trump's affair with a Playboy model, but I still enjoyed Josh Marshall's talk of the "Trump-Pecker alliance" and the quote from NYDN: “Trump is a big friend of Pecker."

pecker
posted by palindromic at 1:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Like, if 538 says 66% chance HRC wins, and PEC says >99% chance she wins, and she DOES win, it's not like PEC was ... righter.

That's not exactly true. If he (FOR EXAMPLE) has Nevada as 51/49 Dem and it winds up being a complete blowout, then, yeah, he was wrong. It would be wrong to put California at 51/49 too even if that's technically a 'Dems win' scenario.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I think tomorrow morning we're going to fire up the double boiler, make a nice hollandaise from scratch, and go hit the drive-through.
posted by contraption at 1:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

No, but the different models' predictions do imply different state-by-state wins/losses and margins, Senate seat wins/losses and margins, and nationwide House generic ballot results, which will all be assessable after the fact. If 538 says there's a 50% chance of her winning FL, and PEC says 99%, and she wins by ten votes, then yes, I'd say 538 was righter. If she wins 60-40, it wasn't.

Edit: what showbiz-liz said.
posted by saturday_morning at 1:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Mostly because I'm lazy and don't want to coordinate anything.
posted by sallybrown at 12:35 PM on November 5 [6 favorites]

Are you sure you're not in charge of Trump's GOTV campaign?
posted by Kibbutz at 1:39 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Like, if 538 says 66% chance HRC wins, and PEC says >99% chance she wins, and she DOES win, it's not like PEC was ... righter.

We can evaluate the various models more granularly based on how the state races fall and how big the margins are. Lower probability for a win implies a lower margin of victory. If Clinton takes FL and OH and breaks 330 EVs, we can definitely say that 538's model needs some revision.
posted by dis_integration at 1:41 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Why hasn't 538 (updated 1 hour ago) taken this into account?

Because 538 works on poll methodology not early voting.

Aren't early voting results just an extremely accurate type of poll?
posted by msalt at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

I don't know why people don't like Egg McMuffins. They're just Eggs Benedict without sauce.

Aaaaahhhh shit!
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

If he (FOR EXAMPLE) has Nevada as 51/49 Dem and it winds up being a complete blowout, then, yeah, he was wrong.

Definitely true, to the extent that he's predicting actual vote margin. That's a good point. I was only thinking in terms of his top-line predictions: who wins the outcome of a single election event. If the polls-only and polls-only are intended to predict actual EV vote margin, that's a very different thing.
posted by penduluum at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Went to get a haircut today, the (Hispanic) shampoo lady, who has never said boo to me other than "Is this too hot?" asked me "Did you vote yet??" Glad I could tell her yes. She said she voted yesterday (last day of early voting). She then worried about the outcome, and I said that Tx would probably not go blue this time but that Clinton was going to win. She never said she was pro-Clinton but I'm pretty sure.
posted by emjaybee at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

I think tomorrow morning we're going to fire up the double boiler, make a nice hollandaise from scratch, and go hit the drive-through.

Have you learned nothing? If there's one thing to take away from the gigantic waste of human potential that has been these election threads (I wouldn't trade any of you for the world), it's that you don't need a double boiler, you can use a hand blender. I mean why do we even bother having these threads?
posted by zachlipton at 1:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [30 favorites]

This is a little mean but on the other hand, lol

Election Update: How Our Model Works by Nate Silver

...Even our own Harry Enten, who is not famous at all, claimed just last month that Trump has to win almost every swing state to have a chance at victory. But there is one key factor Harry and the other sites don’t take into account:

As you can see in the graphic above, our model predicts that me fucking this election up would be “very embarrassing” at best, although a career or life-ruining public backlash also falls within the margin of error.

And there’s data to support this — looking at adjectives that come up when searching for my name on Twitter now, and comparing them to the same search on November 9th of 2012, we can see some unsettling trends:

Almost no one says I’m a genius anymore, and there has been a ten-fold increase in how often I get called a dumbass.

Internal polling done at FiveThirtyEight revealed that just thinking about this data gives me diarrhea 100 percent of the time...
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

Aren't early voting results just an extremely accurate type of poll?

Not really. In any case we don't actually know how they voted, only party registration. But polls should be taking account of early voters by marking those who self-report as already voting as definite voters, increasing their weight in the likely voter screen.
posted by dis_integration at 1:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

If Clinton takes FL and OH and breaks 330 EVs, we can definitely say that 538's model needs some revision.

Well, or that the public polls just genuinely sucked. If the early voting numbers bear out, with zillions of Hispanics voting who didn't make it past LV screens, then 538 didn't really have much to work with. And that data just wasn't available until EV numbers came in. Other models having been more *optimistic* in that scenario doesn't make them retroactively more *accurate* (as poll aggregators, rather than full-service prediction tools) given the public polling data.
posted by saturday_morning at 1:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

I doubt that he's consciously perverting his model for the sake of getting pageviews, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he wasn't in full control of the model anymore, and, for instance, the political climate at ESPN tends to favor models which drive pageviews.
posted by Coventry at 1:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I don't get the 538 hate. It seems pretty clear that he's attempting to include an "unknown unknown" term of poll instability in his prediction that the other models are not.

It's not hate, particularly; people are free to criticize his model all they want, but he gets pretty bent out of shape when they do, apparently. He's out of line with other data-based predictions, most notably PEC, and because his model is not public there's no way of really accounting for it. Couple that with his constant "the race is real real tight right now" and people conclude that he's doing it for the pageclicks. He could forestall some of that by making his model public, but currently all we have to go on is his qualitative "we take the polls, and aggregate them, and weight them, and voila!" explanation.

The volatility of his predictions doesn't line up with other analyses, either; Sam Wang has (fairly mildly) pointed out why he thinks 538 is so volatile. The biggest difference seems to be that 538 focuses heavily on national polling while PEC focuses only on state polls.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:46 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

My old professor Ray Fair also has a very effective election model backtested to 1916 (purely based on economic factors, as he's an economist) and it's predicting a GOP win. He used to make the media rounds every four years but has stayed pretty quiet this time, saying this:

I have been asked whether I believe any of this? The coefficient estimates are based on data going back 100 years---25 elections. They show that the economy has significant effects on voting behavior, as does the duration variable. In this election the duration variable is working against the Democrats, and G and Z are quite low by historical standards, which also works against the Democrats. P is low, which is positive for the Democrats, but this is the only bright light for them. If one assumes that the empirical regularities gleaned from the past 25 elections, as reflected in the coefficient estimates, hold for this election, one would conclude that the Democrats' chances are quite poor.

It is no secret, of course, that Donald Trump is an unusual choice for a candidate. It may be that people who would otherwise vote for the Republicans because of the sluggish economy and a desire for change will vote for the Democrats because of Donald Trump's characteristics that they don't like. If so, then one might say that personalities overwhelmed the economy in affecting voting behavior for this election, which means that the equation's predictions could be way off. The econometric analysis behind this work assumes business as usual, which may not be the case this time. There is no way I can test this before the fact, and even after the fact it is only one observation.

posted by acidic at 1:46 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm pretty sure that when (IF, IF *TTTCS*) Clinton, in many states, beats the latest margins given her on 538 the blame will fall on poor poll quality and changing demographics, not bad/over cautious/double dipping analysis by Nate Silver and co. That'll be the official explanation anyway.

At this point I really don't care how or why, but he is an outlier and it is stressing me out, though I don't think 538 has magical insight that PEC has not.
posted by lydhre at 1:46 PM on November 5, 2016

the political climate at ESPN tends to favor models which drive pageviews.

Or Disney.
posted by LionIndex at 1:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Other models having been more *optimistic* in that scenario doesn't make them retroactively more *accurate* as poll aggregators given the public polling data.

If other models have been, for the past month or so, correctly calling states which 538 has modeled as tossups over the same period, then, yes, they were in fact more accurate than 538.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:47 PM on November 5, 2016

If Clinton takes FL and OH and breaks 330 EVs, we can definitely say that 538's model needs some revision.

Actually, eyeballing his posterior distribution on the EV count, the posterior probability for more than 330 EVs is something like 30%. So that in itself wouldn't invalidate his model.

Edit: There's something wrong with the anchors on the page I linked. I meant to link the graph with electoral votes on the x axis and percent probability on the y.
posted by Coventry at 1:48 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Have you learned nothing? If there's one thing to take away from the gigantic waste of human potential that has been these election threads (I wouldn't trade any of you for the world), it's that you don't need a double boiler, you can use a hand blender. I mean why do we even bother having these threads?

Oh, I know the hand blender method, I just feel this application will benefit from adherence to the traditional rituals.
posted by contraption at 1:48 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Really what should happen is that McDonalds should just sell shelf-stable hollandaise in those same foil-topped plastic tubs they use for orange juice.
posted by contraption at 1:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win.

BREAKING: 1 out of 128 Professors is an Election Psychic
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

David Malki!'s Dispatches from the Mirror Universe.

There but for the grace of god...
posted by Jonathan Harford at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2016

All will make sense when it is revealed Silver has been distracted all season trying to perfect the hollandaise sauce
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I don't think he's doing it for pageviews but I do think his current model (which has been modified from the ones he used in previous elections) models a level of uncertainty for which there is no evidence.

Already we're hearing reports of massive levels of latinx voting that was not captured by the polling. That's exactly the sort of systematic uncertainty that Silvers' model is incorporating (albeit one that actually favors Clinton). If you don't think the public polling is adequate, then that necessarily pulls the probabilities closer to 50/50.
posted by dirigibleman at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Do you want to watch a seven-minute documentary of Hillary's campaign (from Hillary)? I thought so.
posted by acidic at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [14 favorites]

The hollandaise thread is over here. Tips cap to flt.
posted by mochapickle at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Cracked: 5 Things You Believe About Voting That Are Statistically BS
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Based on these threads, I think it's appropriate to post my endorsement of the perfect home ~~Egg McMuffin~~ breakfast sandwich maker from (ahem) Hamilton Beach.
posted by Kibbutz at 1:54 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Silver isn't wrong that HuffPo pollster is stupid. That's why I get all het up whenever somebody posts a link to it as evidence the race isn't tightening. It's absurd.

He's absolutely right; it's completely idiotic to present yourself as a poll aggregator when you're showing a 6 point national race. Maybe the race will end up being 6 points. But that's in no way what the polls are showing. The polls are showing around a 2 point race. That's... just facts.

There's nothing wrong with saying you think the turnout model in the polls is wrong and it wont be a two point race. But don't claim to be presenting facts as a poll aggregator.
posted by Justinian at 1:59 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Here's the thing about 538. Right now, their polling averages are almost exactly in line with all the other poll aggregators. Just based on polls alone, Nate has Clinton winning NV, NC, FL (click on individual states on his map to get the broad details for polling averages and his model adjustments). But then he adds the special sauce - the state correlations and the trendline. The trendline is pushing those three states back to Trump in the model. So literally the only thing that distinguishes Nate from every other bog standard polling aggregator is his special (black box) model. And I think he's probably wrong about at least two of those three states. And I think he knows he's wrong about Nevada. Hence the meltdown on Twitter.

As much as I hope 538 comes back in line with all the others by Tuesday, it'll be nice to have differences in state by state predictions because then we really will be able to determine who had the better model.
posted by one_bean at 1:59 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win.

Pretty sure this is a kind of surviorship bias, and one of these stories shows up every 4 years.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [22 favorites]

Also dirigibleman makes a good point.

If the polls fail to pick up large latinx turnout which makes the polls miss by 2% in Clinton's direction people will say "HAHAHA SUCK IT NATE SILVER". Except that's exactly wrong. It would actually be proof that Nate Silver was right to present his model with large uncertainty. If the polls can miss by 2-3% in Clinton's direction then they could have missed by 2-3% in Trump's direction and resulted in a Trump victory.

Sam Wang is great but this ain't a 99% Clinton race. It's probably not a 65% race either. I don't know what it is. But If the polls miss by a lot in Clinton's direction it's not evidence Silver was wrong, it's evidence he was right.
posted by Justinian at 2:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

(When I say it's probably not a 65% race I mean it's probably higher than that, not lower.)
posted by Justinian at 2:02 PM on November 5, 2016

If you don't think the public polling is adequate, then that necessarily pulls the probabilities closer to 50/50.

I just don't see how that follows. How close your model is depends on why you think it's inadequate, and how you are weighting your model to respond to that.

It's known that 538 takes instability in individual states' polling and magnifies it across other states. It's also known that he uses national polls, which have smaller and less accurate results for each individual state they poll by their very nature, and incorporates them into his state-by-state model. It is not known how much he is adjusting his model to compensate for the relative lack of trustworthiness of those polls, and the fact that his model makes states with very stable polling look swingy.

It might be worth it to incorporate both of those things in order to have more total raw data in your model; however, since we have no idea how much he's adjusting for those things, all we know is that his projections for individual states are based on assumptions that no one else is making, and those assumptions may very well not be borne out.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:03 PM on November 5, 2016

So Silver cannot fail he can only be failed?
posted by emjaybee at 2:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Ask not what Nate Silver can do for you...
posted by infinitywaltz at 2:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Either Silver or Wang or anyone else can fail, it's just hard to say who has failed without being able to run multiple simulations. Like... if Clinton wins a 4% national victory we can't actually say whose model was better. If we did the same election 100 times and Clinton won a 4% national victory 98 times then we'd say Wang is correct. If Clinton won 71 times we'd say Silver was correct.

But sadly we cannot.
posted by Justinian at 2:06 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Lower probability for a win implies a lower margin of victory.

I don't think that's necessarily true. Let's take Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, 29+15+6 EVs.

Let's assume that HRC gets 269 without any of these and that they're all too close to call. If they're all decided by independent coin flips the odds are 50% that HRC wins since she only needs one more EV to go over the top but the average margin is (0.5*29 + 0.5*15 + 0.5*6) = 25

If those coin flips are not as independent as we thought they were, if in fact there's the equivalent of a single coin flip that determines all 3 the odds are still exactly 50/50 and the margin if she wins is only ever 50 EVs.

Just by changing our assumptions on independence, not polls or any other predictions, we can get totally different margins with the same probability.

I'm no statistician so by all means check my math.
posted by Skorgu at 2:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

But then he adds the special sauce - the state correlations and the trendline. The trendline is pushing those three states back to Trump in the model. So literally the only thing that distinguishes Nate from every other bog standard polling aggregator is his special (black box) model.

Well now this is interesting. I hadn't realized that the current 538 model put such a premium on the trendline. I wonder what Nate Silver used to think about the concept of trendlines and momentum in previous races. I wonder if he ever said something like,

When people say a particular candidate has momentum, what they are implying is that present trends are likely to perpetuate themselves into the future. Say, for instance, that a candidate trailed by 10 points in a poll three weeks ago — and now a new poll comes out showing the candidate down by just 5 points. It will frequently be said that this candidate “has the momentum”, “is gaining ground,” “is closing his deficit,” or something similar.

Each of these phrases are in the present tense. They create the impression that — if the candidate has gone from being 10 points down to 5 points down, then by next week, he’ll have closed his deficit further: perhaps he’ll even be ahead!

There’s just one problem with this. It has no particular tendency toward being true.

posted by saturday_morning at 2:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [18 favorites]

Via my Facebook feed, anecdata from the Philly suburbs: so many Dem volunteers showed up today that they've had trouble finding enough doors for them all to knock on.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 2:11 PM on November 5, 2016 [27 favorites]

...without being able to run multiple simulations.

I just rewatched White Christmas episode of Black Mirror. You've just horrified me beyond belief.
posted by ghost phoneme at 2:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Either Silver or Wang or anyone else can fail, it's just hard to say who has failed without being able to run multiple simulations.

But if there are discrepancies in who wins what states, one will have ended up being more correct. And if one is closer to estimating the overall vote margin, one will have ended up being more correct. If one is closer to the eventual Electoral College outcome, one will have ended up being more correct. In 2008 and 2012, Wang was more correct, even though they both predicted Obama wins.

It's true that, even if Clinton gets 330 EVs, Nate won't be wrong. That's because his model has so much uncertainty. That's not a good thing! Here's my model: Clinton and Trump have a 50% chance of winning in every state on Tuesday. I am definitely going to be right. I'm going to be more right than anybody else, but my model sucks. The fact that Nate is hedging his bets is not a point in his favor.
posted by one_bean at 2:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I think the reason no one was home when my son and I went canvassing today is that everyone else was also out canvassing (when we came home, my door had a sticker on it indicating we had been canvassed, which my son thought was hilarious). We passed by clipboard-wielding folks from other organizations not directly affiliated with HFA also GOTVing for the democrats several times while we were out. If folks don't know who, where and how to vote by Tuesday, they've been in a coma.
posted by soren_lorensen at 2:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [25 favorites]

Via my Facebook feed, anecdata from the Philly suburbs: so many Dem volunteers showed up today that they've had trouble finding enough doors for them all to knock on.

The local chapter of the Dems in northern Virginia sent out an e-mail saying roughly the same thing, that they have tons of canvassers. They're asking people to phone bank instead, at least for the weekend.
posted by zombieflanders at 2:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I once got a call from Republican phone-bankers while I was phone-banking for the Democrats. They were like "hi, I"m Julie from the Republicans! Are you planning to support our candidate?" And I was like, "well, I'm currently making identical phone calls for the Democratic candidate." And they were like "oh, then I guess not!" And I was like "nope, definitely not." And then we both laughed, because that kind of seems to sum up the phone banking experience some days.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [44 favorites]

YouTube version of Hill's "Story of Us" vid.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:22 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

Via my Facebook feed, anecdata from the Philly suburbs: so many Dem volunteers showed up today that they've had trouble finding enough doors for them all to knock on.

Send 'em over to Michigan? :-/
posted by saturday_morning at 2:22 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

The fact that Nate is hedging his bets is not a point in his favor.

That depends completely on the uncertainties in the polling.
posted by Justinian at 2:23 PM on November 5, 2016

The thing that gets me about Silver and Wang arguing is that it's so pointless to argue about degrees of certainty in models like this. They're arguing about the distribution of electoral votes in elections with polling very similar to this one. Silver's model is saying that if you had 100 elections with polling similar to this one's, you should expect the Democrat to win about 650 of them. Wang is saying that if you had 100 elections with polling similar to this one, you should expect the Democrat to lose only some small handful.

We will have that hundred elections with polling similar to this one, if we're "lucky," in 400 years.

Yeah, you can get some handle on it by looking at which states different models are getting wrong, and their predicted margins in each state... but come on. The topline winner is what people care about, and arguing about whose probability statement about that more accurately captures the true uncertainty is just so angels-dancing-on-pins since we just don't have anything like the data to accurately capture that uncertainty and almost certainly never will, because by the time you would have had enough data points to work with the political system has likely undergone serious changes.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 2:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

There'd be nothing wrong with Silver's model if he wasn't constantly on twitter pushing the latest outlier poll and saying the sky is falling. And then getting defensive and writing a pissy post about it. It's not the model per se, it's Silver and his commentary.

Yeah, this. It's not in dispute that Silver has spent a lot of time over the last 10 years working on poll aggregation and prediction-modeling; he should calmly stand by his model, and let it stand or fall on its own.

What does concern me is the fact that he's apparently been tweaking his model along the way. I'd think a more scientific approach would involve setting up the assumptions, background variables (like economic strength, popularity of the incumbent president, etc.) and so on at the outset of the election season, by June or July at the latest -- and then feeding polls to the model and letting it grind out its own conclusions.

If you keep meddling with it, sure, you'll end up with a result that's closer to the actual result. But you'll have no way of knowing if that's because the model was actually good, or if it's because you kept putting your thumb on the scale.

I actually do agree with Silver's original call to assume greater uncertainty than many of the other models have; at the beginning of this season, we really didn't have any idea what the Trumpian coalition would look like. It was entirely possible that he could have built a winning Rust Belt - Interior West - Deep South coalition. Now, from our vantage point in November, the race has been quite stable and has mirrored, surprisingly closely, the Obama-Romney race, but hindsight is 20/20.

It looks like he bet on greater volatility, and he's lost that bet. That's okay, it doesn't make him bad or stupid. And on the other side, it doesn't mean he has to get nastily defensive.
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Paul Ryan's ridiculous social media strategy of "I'll completely ignore the world burning around me and keep sending out increasingly stupid #BetterWay tweets" has taken an awkward turn into subtweeting Melania Trump.
posted by zachlipton at 2:28 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Schedules, schedules: HRC to Grand Rapids on Monday, POTUS to Ann Arbor. One interpretation is that Michigan is soft; another might be that polling the state has proved iffy this year (e.g. the primary loss, against all the polling, spooked Hillary). But it's another state with no real early voting.
posted by holgate at 2:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Christie Was a ‘Puppeteer’ Who Knew All, Says Bridgegate Juror

Juror Sheryl Bender broke her silence in an interview one day after Bridget Anne Kelly and Bill Baroni were convicted, expressing bewilderment that neither Christie nor other members of his inner circle were held accountable in the plot to create traffic jams near the George Washington Bridge as a way to exact revenge on a New Jersey mayor.

Christie wasn’t charged, but was depicted at trial as an abusive bully whose aides punished perceived enemies. The scandal helped doom his Republican run for the presidential nomination.

"Even though Trump said last year that he thought Christie 'totally knew' about the lane closing plot, he appointed him to lead his transition team. Christie has assembled a team led by two close advisers responsible for filling thousands of government jobs if Trump wins."

Sure. Why not. You're gonna get tired of winning.
posted by petebest at 2:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

He could forestall some of that by making his model public

His model is almost assuredly Official Disney Property at this point. Even if he'd prefer to reveal his ~~secret hobo spices~~ how the weighting is done and how the model is composed, there are probably contractual limits to his disclosures. That is not the stuff of good science, but he is also likely to suffer worse career repercussions for being publicly incorrect than the average academic data scientist.
posted by palindromic at 2:32 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Sam Wang on Twitter: Been thinking. I think polling-error parameters feeding PEC probability should probably be reset, which would give 91-93%. Below that, nah.

That was in response to a question about whether he's being overconfident.

Agggh. Same thing to Sam Wang. It's okay to criticize your model, but you shouldn't start tweaking it mid-game. Stand by your assumptions, and then critique them clearly and openly in the postmortem analysis.

(He's probably right that there's less than a 99% chance of a Clinton win. But that's not what his model says!)
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Schedules, schedules: HRC to Grand Rapids on Monday, POTUS to Ann Arbor.

Feeling kind of bad for telling the kid in line behind me at HRC's Detroit rally yesterday not to worry about Michigan because it's not like the campaign in sending any Obamas in...
posted by palindromic at 2:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

It's okay to criticize your model, but you shouldn't start tweaking it mid-game. Stand by your assumptions, and then critique them clearly and openly in the postmortem analysis.

I don't think he's tweaking it, just starting the post-mortem early.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 2:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

I'm no statistician so by all means check my math.

Ha I was totally wrong. The odds of 3 independent coins flipping at least one head is 87.5%, not 50/50. So an 87.5% chance of winning with an average margin of 25 or a 50% chance of winning with a margin of 50. I think my point stands but I've confused myself so who knows.
posted by Skorgu at 2:40 PM on November 5, 2016

Agggh. Same thing to Sam Wang. It's okay to criticize your model, but you shouldn't start tweaking it mid-game. Stand by your assumptions, and then critique them clearly and openly in the postmortem analysis.

But he hasn't actually tweaked his model. The website still says 98% (99%). He was just spitballing.
posted by saturday_morning at 2:41 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

It's not science, it's infotainment. I think people are reacting to Silver's perceived clickbaiting more than whatever theory they think they know about his prediction models.

A "serious" statistician wouldn't be so blasé about the immenent destruction of all we hold dear with "OMG Hillz might not make it people! Click if you believe!"
posted by petebest at 2:42 PM on November 5, 2016

I'm holding my breath and waiting for AZ to turn blue.
posted by Taft at 2:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

That depends completely on the uncertainties in the polling.

Dude come on you have been following this debate long enough to know that there are many other things that contribute to Nate's model's uncertainty other than polling bias and precision.
posted by one_bean at 2:45 PM on November 5, 2016

Silver isn't wrong that HuffPo pollster is stupid.

What is the evidence for this?
posted by kirkaracha at 2:46 PM on November 5, 2016

My mother-in-law just told us that she voted absentee in Maine for Clinton. She's been saying for the last month that she'd do a write-in for Bernie because something something Hilary isn't perfect something something.

I'm hopeful that the near-daily FB fights and drama between her and my wife are now at an end. Sanity reigns in our household.
posted by rbellon at 2:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [22 favorites]

It hasn't really been all that much like Obama/Romney. In that race, the two of them were much closer in the popular vote polling and there were many times late in the game when Romney was polling ahead. Clinton hasn't trailed in the polling averages for over 100 days, and over the past month her closest lead over Trump was higher than Obama's highest lead over Romney. (And at this point in 2012 Nate was giving Obama a 90% chance of winning.)

I don't mean in the sense of who's winning the horserace -- I mean in the sense that there was a reasonable chance that Trump could've totally reworked the red-blue map. I'm talking Ohio +7 Trump, Michigan +3 Trump, Wisconsin +5 Trump, Pennsylvania +3 Trump... the Rust Belt flip that Trump still thinks is coming because he's an idiot.

Could've happened, if he weren't such an incompetent, misogynistic, blatantly racist egomaniac who did zero coordination with his party and went out of his way to piss off demographics and party leaders who totally could have been in his corner.

There was a nonzero chance of that happening and if it had, Silver would be riding high right now. (Except that he would also be royally screwed, as an American citizen about to ~~live through~~ experience a Trump presidency.)

Instead, it looks like the map is going to be basically Obama '12, with Trump flipping Iowa and maybe Ohio, and Clinton taking back NC. The Sturm und Drang of 2016 looks to be a virtual repeat of 2012 on the electoral map, at least. Unless, as I hope, the LV screens are utterly falling apart against el muro latino and the silent hordes of Lysistratas....
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:51 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

What is the evidence for this?

Here is Huffpo Pollster currently showing more than a 5 point race for Clinton based on polling.

Show me the last couple of polls where Clinton was more than 5 points ahead of Trump. Ok, now square that with HuffPo showing a 5 point lead.
posted by Justinian at 2:51 PM on November 5, 2016

HRC to Grand Rapids on Monday

What!?!?! Why is she going there instead of either a Dem stronghold (Flint, A2, etc.) or one of the light red suburban Detroit districts?

Do they think they can take the Third Congressional?! Except for a hot minute after Watergate (when the seat was vacated by Gerald Ford on his abrupt accession to 1600 Penn. Ave.), Grand Rapids hasn't had a Democratic rep since... *wiki wiki* 1913.
posted by tivalasvegas at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

In 1 Unscripted Moment, Hillary Clinton Finds Joy in the Rain

Her arms thrust skyward, one after the other, in what starts to feel like a dance.

There’s an unfamiliar sense of abandon and joy.

The rain grows heavier. Her wet clothes turn a shade darker. She cracks a wide smile. She takes in the scene around her and laughs before she finishes her sentence.

She’s drenched now, her voice hoarse. The storm is mussing her hair. It’s time to leave the stage. But just before doing so, she turns and raises both arms, giving herself up to the storm and the moment — and the looming end of this adventure.

Go watch the video. It's glorious. She is so done, done with everything, voice utterly broken, and she's just smiling and laughing through the rain, like she has through her entire career.

As Olbermann put it: "The criticism should never have been "smile more." It should've been "stop listening to anybody who tells you to smile LESS!""

That, right there, is the woman I voted for. We don't get to see that Hillary Clinton very often, but when we do, oh is it sweet.
posted by zachlipton at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [86 favorites]

You guys, my four-year-old is running around the house with a clipboard "playing canvas." It's adorable. Oops gotta go, he's demanding I come to his campaign office! :) :) :)
posted by soren_lorensen at 3:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [93 favorites]

Metafilter: I think my point stands but I've confused myself so who knows.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Show me the last couple of polls where Clinton was more than 5 points ahead of Trump. Ok, now square that with HuffPo showing a 5 point lead.

You know you can check which polls the HuffPo Pollster is using? NBC/SurveyMonkey 51/44 to Clinton, ABC News 53/41.
posted by Francis at 3:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Do you want to watch a seven-minute documentary of Hillary's campaign (from Hillary)? I thought so.

That moment in the middle of this video when Robby Mook jumps out of his plane seat at the announcement that NBC called the nomination for Hillary, and then Hillary puts her hand over her heart - you can see in her face that interior part of herself she guards so carefully, shining out and thinking "I actually, finally made it! Oh my god! I did it!!!"
posted by sallybrown at 3:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

Mook on HRC's schedule, for what it's worth.
posted by shothotbot at 3:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Jon Stewart - Twitter War with Donald Trump (NSFW Lang.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:05 PM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

So many states have early voting now, I think sometimes people forget there are a few where there's no early voting unless you are legitimately unable to vote on election day. I totally am picking up what Mook is putting down up there, living in one of those vote only on Tuesday states.
posted by soren_lorensen at 3:07 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Mook on HRC's schedule, for what it's worth.

So we have both Obama and Clinton going to MI and Obama and Clinton going to PA. Perhaps those are the two day-of-voting-only states with the highest potential? Maybe a sign OH will not flip despite the good poll today?
posted by sallybrown at 3:08 PM on November 5, 2016

I love that they seem confident on Florida.
posted by chris24 at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Sorry if already covered, what does the ballot harvesting ruling mean for WA, if anything? Someone at work was planning on doing it as a convenience for other colleagues.
posted by Joe Chip at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2016

New Steve Schale update from Florida:

On a day that saw 464,000 voters with almost 26% of the votes come in from NPAs, Democrats won the day by about 9K votes, winning narrowly both VBM and EV.

Total Ballots cast: 5,731,761
Total Vote By Mail: 2,370,567 (45%)
Total Early Vote: 2,897.183 (55%)

Democrats: 2,268,663 (39.58%)
Republicans: 2,261,383 (39.45)
NPA: 1,201,715 (20.97%)

Total Margin: DEM +0.13%

Right now, I think about 60% percent of the likely electorate has voted. At the higher turnout rate, I think we will be between 66-67% of likely voters having voted through Sunday. Another way of looking at this – our early vote as of yesterday is 91 more people than voted in all of Pennsylvania in the 2012 election. EV Florida with 2 days to go would be the 5th largest voting state in America.

...

To put Miami in perspective, in 658K have voted there through yesterday, compared to 879K who voted there in the entire 2012 election. Yesterday was the biggest day of early voting in the county’s history. A county I expect to be at best, 10.5% of statewide votes is well over 11.15% of the state, and yesterday was almost 12% of all voters. And right now the 44D-30R-26NPA split should play out pretty favorably for the Democrats.

...

I also want to restate something verbatim I wrote yesterday, mainly for my friends at CNN who keep reporting the topline numbers with no context. So here goes:

Between 2012 and 2016, a significant number of white Democrats switched parties. A large number of them came from places where the odds of them voting for any Democrat in recent history was very low, and certainly not one for President. For those not from here, you have to remember that large parts of the state are still very “southern” and as such, has retained some of that Southern Democrat identity, even though many of those voters have long stopped voting for Dems for President. The Obama second term and the rise of Trump – plus the fact that Republicans are winning more local offices, gave them the nudge to shed the label and “re-categorize themselves” into the party where they really belong.

So I asked some data people a question: is there a chance that part of the GOP lead is built with people who four years ago, were Democrat early voters – even if they were Dems in name only. The answer is yes. Almost 50,000 2016 Republican early voters were Democratic early voters in 2012. In other words, if none of those voters had switched, Dems would have a roughly 100K vote lead over the GOP today – even though that lead would have been meaningless.

All looking good. And that explains why the Republicans are declaring that they like Florida as well. Double counting. If Clinton wins Florida it's game over I think.
posted by Francis at 3:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

FL is on set it and forget it (aka let the surrogates take it). They've assembled all the ingredients in the crockpot and now it's been cooking slowly. :)

Another strange thing about OH is it was impossible to get phone bank numbers, despite OH calling being the top category in the phone bank system. Every time I clicked on it it told me I was done. FL and NC, in contrast, had lists that just kept coming.
posted by sallybrown at 3:11 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

> "Sorry if already covered, what does the ballot harvesting ruling mean for WA, if anything?"

The ruling applied to AZ only. If ballot harvesting was allowed in WA before, it still is.
posted by kyrademon at 3:14 PM on November 5, 2016

The Election Polls That Matter

The best campaigns don’t bother with national polls — I’ve come to hate public polling, period. In the 2012 race we focused on a “golden report,” which included 62,000 simulations to determine Mr. Obama’s chances of winning battleground states. It included state tracking polls and nightly calls from volunteers, but no national tracking polls.

In Milwaukee, I assured the president that the golden report was predicting a victory, with 332 electoral votes. On Election Day, that was the exact number of electoral votes the president won.

Jim Messina, the chief executive of the Messina Group and a chairman of Priorities USA Action, was the campaign manager for President Obama in 2012.

posted by kirkaracha at 3:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I just assumed the main story on CNN's front page was referring to the election in a figurative sense (and not the more literal interpretation of direness) . It didn't seem extreme or hyperbolic or out of the ordinary and was immediately accepted. That's how far we've gone...
posted by guiseroom at 3:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

This elementary school has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1968.

They're going with Clinton this time around.
posted by sektah at 3:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

There is something going on in MI that we're not picking up on, whether it's internal polling for the Presidential race or some calculation about the House. But there's no way they'd be sending both Clinton and Obama if there wasn't something to achieve there that they couldn't achieve elsewhere.

This got me worried for a minute, but:

I assume that their sending Hillary & top surrogates to MI means that the campaign's not considering NV, NC, FL, WI, or OH to be worth the trip, else they'd be going there. And even if (what's the opposite of TTTCS?) Trump takes Ohio and Michigan, plus NH and one EV in Maine, if Clinton holds on to NV/NC/FL/WI (which we think will happen) -- he still doesn't hit 270! So they at least aren't going to MI because of that fear.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I don't mean in the sense of who's winning the horserace -- I mean in the sense that there was a reasonable chance that Trump could've totally reworked the red-blue map. I'm talking Ohio +7 Trump, Michigan +3 Trump, Wisconsin +5 Trump, Pennsylvania +3 Trump... the Rust Belt flip that Trump still thinks is coming because he's an idiot.

I swear this is the last thing I'll say about polls this weekend. But this captures something that has always been really unclear in the 538 model. There are fundamentally two questions to election forecasting: (1) how much can we trust the polls today and (2) what do the polls today tell us about Election Day, sometime in the future?

Wang basically thinks (1) polls, in aggregate, are pretty reliable for saying what people are thinking right now. He estimates (2) by asking how much polls have fluctuated over the course of previous elections. That's not terribly sophisticated, but it's easy and transparent. Polls - and more importantly public opinion - really do change over the course of the campaign. That's why back in June, Wang had Clinton's chances of winning much lower, even though had the election been held in June he was absolutely certain she would have won. At that time, there really was a chance for Trump to move voters in places like MI and WI and PA. With three days to go, there's just nowhere for the polls to go. The cake is baked. In June, there was some potential for polls and a lot of potential for people to change their minds. Now, there's only the chance that the polls are wrong. So Clinton's chances of victory are much higher.

538 appears to have three different models (polls plus, polls only, nowcast). In my mind, I've always assumed that the nowcast is "what would happen if the election were held today" (i.e., how much can we trust the polls), and polls only is "how much can voters change their mind from now until the election." (Polls plus is "how much can voters change their mind given the state of the economy and some other crap"). But the two different models haven't actually functioned like that. The nowcast has always been way too similar to polls only. It's completely unclear how they function or what assumptions Nate has built into them. If you follow them closely, it just doesn't seem like "how much can voters change their mind before the election" is even something they include in their model. Or if they do, it's a really uninformative part of the overall model. It's just a head scratcher.
posted by one_bean at 3:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

tivalasvegas: what's the opposite of TTTCS?

I'd go with SCTTT.
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:22 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Professor who’s predicted 30 years of presidential elections correctly is doubling down on a Trump win

This elementary school has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1968. They're going with Clinton this time around.

Staaaaahp.
posted by duffell at 3:23 PM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

I'd go with SCTTT.

I'll get drool all over my face though!
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:24 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Every time I clicked on it it told me I was done. FL and NC, in contrast, had lists that just kept coming.

Could that be a bug? I was told "you're done" in FL several times and just had to click on the state again to get new numbers.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 3:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Silver's model is saying that if you had 100 elections with polling similar to this one's, you should expect the Democrat to win about 650 of them.

Rigged!
posted by Slothrup at 3:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Good article on the Latin@/Hispanic turnout (NYT):

24 percent of the Hispanics casting early ballots [in FL] were first-time voters, the analysis showed. . . . Jon-Carlos Perez, 30, a concrete skilled laborer originally from Puerto Rico, said he cast his vote for Mrs. Clinton in part because “she’s not an idiot like Trump.” Mr. Perez, an independent voter, said of Mr. Trump: “I’m Puerto Rican, and I’m probably more American than he is.”

Canvassing on Saturday morning in North Miami, Mary Kay Henry, the president of the Service Employees International Union, and a handful of local members focused on households, many of them Haitian or Hispanic, with an infrequent voting history. But nearly every resident who answered their door assured her they had already voted.

“The word is out,” said Ms. Henry, as roosters scooted between yards.

posted by sallybrown at 3:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

I hesitate to bring this one up at all, because it's wikileaks and Sanders and drama and ugh, but it's going around and of some interest. I'm only going to link to the hacked email (assuming, of course, it is genuine), because I haven't seen any reporting on it that isn't right-wing crazypants stuff, and I'm not bringing that in here.

The context is a mild attack Sanders made in May 2015 when he was asked about the Clintons' wealth, saying that people with that kind of money "don't sit in restaurants like this" and "that type of wealth has the potential to isolate you from the reality of the world." It's not an invalid line of criticism, though it somewhat clashed with Clinton's early campaign which was big on small town halls and listening to people talk about their problems. A reporter emailed to get comment from the Clinton campaign.

The communications staff flagged it for the team, and in response to this, Mook wrote to Podesta:

This isn't in keeping w the agreement. Since we clearly have some leverage, would be good to flag this for him. I could send a signal via Welch--or did you establish a direct line w him?

A bunch of people are insinuating increasingly crazy things from this without evidence, especially around the meaning of "some leverage" (which, I note, can mean more like "attack back," rather than "secret blackmail conspiracy"), but "the agreement" is interesting, as it suggests the campaigns may have had a deal not to attack each other too hard (which would fit the vast majority of their behavior in the primaries) and run positive campaigns. If that's the case, looking at what happened in the Republican primaries, it seems like a damn fine decision.

Presumably, all will be revealed when the books come out.
posted by zachlipton at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

if Clinton holds on to NV/NC/FL/WI (which we think will happen)

We do? I mean, giving NC and FL to Clinton is basically saying "the election is over". I understand optimism but that's more or less assuming that Trump has 0% to win.
posted by Justinian at 3:29 PM on November 5, 2016

How to Make Sense of the Election Forecasts

If you are a consumer of political news and analysis, you have likely run across various “forecasts” of what will happen in this election. It’s useful to sort them out.

posted by kirkaracha at 3:30 PM on November 5, 2016

There's a mob of wild horses that tends to roam between northwestern Kansas and north eastern Colorado. In all previous presidential elections they have been in Colorado when the Republican has won and Kansas when the Democratic candidate has won, and in the Missouri Territory when the Whigs have won.

This year they are all in South Dakota due to global climate change.
posted by localhuman at 3:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [69 favorites]

In fact, if Clinton holds NC, NV and FL... she can lose the whole entire goddamn Midwest besides MN and IL, plus PA, and still eke out a majority. Don't believe me? It does not lie.

If she holds them, we can call this election as soon as polls close in the Panhandle.

T
T
T
C
S
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

USA needs an Antony Green not this Nate clown.
posted by Joe Chip at 3:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Right, like I said saying "if Clinton holds on to NV/NC/FL/WI" is essentially just saying "if Clinton wins the election".
posted by Justinian at 3:32 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I think tomorrow morning we're going to fire up the double boiler, make a nice hollandaise from scratch, and go hit the drive-through.

(oh wow this is probably ancient now, but...)

McDonalds already has an approximation of hollandaise available, they call it "breakfast sauce" and I know that it at least goes on their bagel sandwiches. Maybe just ask for your McMuffins with that, if you're in a hurry and not about to make your own back home.
posted by indubitable at 3:32 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

if Clinton holds on to NV/NC/FL/WI (which we think will happen)

We do?

NV and FL have both been part of the Latin@/Hispanic early voting wave and have knowledgeable local voting experts saying they're either locked up (NV) or on track for a win assuming normal turnout by Dems (FL). NC was called out in another article on early voting this morning as being locked up due to turnout (I wish I could remember what article this was...). Clinton has been ahead by a good bit in WI polling for a while.

Seems fair to say we think she will win all four.
posted by sallybrown at 3:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

We do? I mean, giving NC and FL to Clinton is basically saying "the election is over". I understand optimism but that's more or less assuming that Trump has 0% to win.

I think so. And I mean, I'm giving you a worst-case scenario here. How likely is it that Trump, in the face of the polls generally having him down by a slim to solid amount across the Great Lakes region (less OH and IN), will actually take PA, MI and WI? He has to do that, plus grab one of NC or FL or (NV and NH).

It's increasingly unlikely and I feel okay in saying so.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:36 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump just added a stop in LEESBURG, VA for Sunday night. Literally the only reason for him to go there right now is to go shopping at the outlet mall. WTF? He might as well go to DC.
posted by sallybrown at 3:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

I got get-out-the-voted on my way to my book group today. I'm not sure if they even told me their party affiliation, but no one is going to canvass for the Republicans in my mostly-POC, heavily immigrant neighborhood. So I told them we had made time to vote on election day, we were all registered, we knew where our polling place was and we were all in the tank for the Democrats, then thanked them for getting out the vote. If they were Republicans in disguise that would be kind of funny, but I don't think they were.

Biking home through an affluent but hippie-ish part of town, I saw a bunch of Clinton/Kaine signs, one Hillary 2016! sign, zero Trump signs, some signs for local races, one "Everybody sucks 2016" sign and....one home-made Hillary yard sign that looked like a small child had had a hand in it. Also lots of Black Lives Matter signs.
posted by Frowner at 3:39 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Oh, also one Jill Stein sign! Never seen one before!
posted by Frowner at 3:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Black Lives Matter... yard signs?
posted by indubitable at 3:42 PM on November 5, 2016

I'm cautiously optimistic but I'd definitely feel better about the Clinton camp's internals if they were putting the big guns in North Carolina or Florida rather than Pennsylvania and Michigan. Those are pure defense plays.

You don't get to be extra-the-President if you get more than 270 EVs.

Plus, they have been spending time in Florida and North Carolina... which have early voting... which Michigan and Pennsylvania do not.
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

The dances_with_sneetches current chill level is at 9. The Latinos will have your backs. Texas will go for Clinton along with Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Missouri. There will be a six point swing in all but the non-Latino whitest states. I really believe it will be 400 plus electoral votes. Trump has been running an incompetent campaign in a way that the polls can't measure.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [24 favorites]

Black Lives Matter... yard signs?

I've had some in my neighborhood but they kept either getting stolen or vandalized. I saw a Black Lives Matter bumper sticker around the corner from me just this morning.
posted by sallybrown at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016

Good point about the early voting (or lack thereof!). I am appeased.
posted by Justinian at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Barbara Comstock has been running away from Trump. Now he's coming to her district near Leesburg. Sad.
posted by humanfont at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Black Lives Matter... yard signs?

Uh, yeah? They do exist. There's no law that says only political campaigns can get yard signs printed.
posted by soren_lorensen at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Black Lives Matter... yard signs?

Yes, there are a lot around in MPLS. I thought everywhere had them if they had an active BLM group but maybe not? I want one but haven't had the cash when people have been selling them.
posted by Frowner at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Post from a FB friend about her husband:

[Name] was handing out sample ballots for the local Dem Party here in Asheville on Thursday, (they can't vote a straight party ticket in NC), when one of those Trump Poll Watcher Wackos arrived. He screamed profanities, got right up in [Name's] face in an aggressive manner, said all the people there were too close to the polling place and were breaking the law, wanted everybody's names, and on and on. The library (polling place) called the police. But when the police car pulled into the drive, the dude ran away! I'm so glad I stayed behind to do laundry!!!! [Name] says he felt shaken and all the folks handing out info were frightened. Dang, voting should not be dangerous!
posted by emjaybee at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

The Latinos will have your backs. Texas will go for Clinton along with Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Missouri. There will be a six point swing in all but the non-Latino whitest states. I really believe it will be 400 plus electoral votes.

What do you think for SC?
posted by sallybrown at 3:46 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

So I'm an expat and it is killing me being out of the country for this election. Not since 9/11 have I felt such a drive to "go home".

I was an activist for many years in the 80s and 90s, organizing for LGBT and women's reproductive rights first in college and then when I was living in DC. The drive to do something now is overwhelming.

Also, all the Canadians around me are a bit snobby when it comes to US politics and are definitely not interested in hearing me go on about it since it "doesn't affect them."

So I favourite all of you who are calling and knocking on doors and doing all the things. These threads have been a lifeline for me, calming my anxieties and making me laugh out loud when I really need it.

So thank you to all of you, I really mean it (and am tearing up as I write that)
posted by obliquity of the ecliptic at 3:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [43 favorites]

Good point about the early voting (or lack thereof!). I am appeased.

We tend the JCPL here like we're raking one of those zen sand gardens. It's a good way to keep calm.
posted by sallybrown at 3:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [24 favorites]

[Name] was handing out sample ballots for the local Dem Party here in Asheville on Thursday, (they can't vote a straight party ticket in NC), when one of those Trump Poll Watcher Wackos arrived. He screamed profanities, got right up in [Name's] face in an aggressive manner, said all the people there were too close to the polling place and were breaking the law, wanted everybody's names, and on and on.

Everybody, if this happens at your polling place, take a leaf out of the BLM book and record them with your phone if you think you can do it safely.
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [38 favorites]

The nowcast has always been way too similar to polls only. It's completely unclear how they function or what assumptions Nate has built into them.

Yeah, Silver's model just doesn't seem to do any actual predicting of the future in the way one would expect. It has fluctuated wildly over the course of the year.

I don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. I certainly don't need a weatherman who can only tell me which way the breeze is blowing today.
posted by howfar at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

all the Canadians around me are a bit snobby when it comes to US politics and are definitely not interested in hearing me go on about it since it "doesn't affect them."

THEY WISH
posted by Slothrup at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [14 favorites]

If Clinton gets 400 plus EV I will, Sam Wang-esque, eat a bug.

But only like a cricket or something. Not a creepy spider or caterpillar.
posted by Justinian at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Sign update:

The large grain silo(Google image search) off of I55 and Damen in Chicago had a wonderful spray paint of "fuck Trump". It was vertical and quite impressive. Couldn't capture a pic though.

In addition, I was canvassed in Spanish via txt message for Hillary today. Most likely due to the zip code I live in.
posted by AlexiaSky at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

> Greene County is located in southwest Missouri, more densely populated than its neighboring Ozark counties, due to its county seat, the city of Springfield, where three-fifths of the county’s people live. Ninety-three percent of those people are white. . . . the news this week that armed, uniformed sheriffs deputies will be stationed in Greene County polling places is not comforting.

FYI we just learned that all of the schools in our district (Kansas City, Missouri metro area) will be closed on Tuesday.

Reason is that a number of schools are voting locations.

What is interesting is that the schools are voting locations every election. Elections a couple times a year, as a rule. And the schools have never closed for elections before in the 20+ years we have lived here.

Methinks the various authorities are taking threats of election-day violence seriously.
posted by flug at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

President Obama to Campaign in Ann Arbor Monday.

The rally will be held from 9 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 7, but a time for Obama's visit has not been announced.

Oh, Obama will be in Ann Arbor around lunchtime? Given past experience, think I may stroll on over to Zingerman's about that time.
posted by Preserver at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

JustKeepSwimming: I've opted out of canvassing this weekend as I have had the cold from hell and do not want to make my fellow Democrats sick. It also means that I lose my voice fairly easily.

I'm in the same boat. However, I'm optimistic about tomorrow. Sanders is making a stop here (they are really pulling out all the stops in AZ, it's so heartening!), and I RSVP'd. My plan is to do that, then canvass my little heart out pretty much from that point on until the polls close Tuesday.

In related-ish news, today my car magnet arrived (I think I donated $5 in response to some email that came with a magnet offer), and went straight onto the back of my Civic. And even more exciting was the arrival of my bottle of BPAL Nasty Woman. Proceeds go to Planned Parenthood and Emily's List. Too late to get it in time for Election Day, but it makes a great gift for the nasty women in your life!

(I think my cold is getting better because I can actually smell it, so yay.)
posted by Superplin at 3:54 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Yeah, Silver's model just doesn't seem to do any actual predicting of the future in the way one would expect. It has fluctuated wildly over the course of the year.

I've felt this way for 8 years now. For all his spin, all three of Silver's models are basically a now-cast with somewhat varying amounts of secret sauce added on top. An actual prediction of election day needs to be much more stable or it is utterly useless.

Sam Wang's model has that going for it though even he now admits he underestimated the inherent uncertainty a bit. He says if he redid the model now it would likely be giving a 91-93% of Clinton win vs 99%, That feels right to me and we all know that your gut is the best way to make political predictions.
posted by Justinian at 3:54 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I'm cautiously optimistic but I'd definitely feel better about the Clinton camp's internals if they were putting the big guns in North Carolina or Florida rather than Pennsylvania and Michigan. Those are pure defense plays.

On the other hand, the polls in Michigan are a sea of blue (albeit low single digit blue). You'd sure rather have every goddamn poll showing you +3 to +5 than the opposite.

"Cautiously optimistic", from Justinian, three days before the Day? I'll take it!

But I'd actually be more worried if they were going more all-out in NC/FL. That would mean they're concerned about them; and if not, as I just realized, Michigan and even Pennsylvania... don't matter for getting-to-270 purposes.
posted by tivalasvegas at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I just read the reviews of that BPAL Nasty Woman, which include --

it’s actually strongly evocative of the wood and incense scent of Japanese Buddhist temples, which I absolutely love.

I've been looking for a scent like this ever since I got back from Japan!! In.
posted by sallybrown at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Just got back from canvassing in Mid-Michigan and it went surprisingly well. I've been reluctant despite canvassing in 08 and 12 because I'm just not in a great head space for it right now. I'm glad I did. It gave me something to do besides sit at home nervously and now I'm considering taking Election Day off and going out again.
posted by MaritaCov at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Black Lives Matter... yard signs?

They're all over the place in my northeast Portland, OR neighborhood. Which is kind of awesome to see, but is also a little...something...given the neighborhood's history with redlining, "urban renewal" and gentrification.
posted by dersins at 3:59 PM on November 5, 2016

Wisconsin is in play, so when a friend posted on FB that she was looking for a partner to knock on doors, I went out with her. We were reminded that our town really doesn't have neighborhoods, it has blocks. We covered about 12 blocks, and each one looked and felt different.

Every person of color we talked to (that is to say, most of the people we talked to) just laughed when we asked if they were planning to vote Tuesday. Oh, hell, yes. We only encountered one person who claimed that she hadn't decided.

I'll be an election observer for the League of Women Voters on Tuesday. To be honest, that's more fun and easier than GOTV, and it lets me feel like I'm doing something about voter suppression, which makes me incandescent with rage. This is my the third year.
posted by BrashTech at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [45 favorites]

On a different topic, we're just a few days out yet so it's time to start panicking about rain in Philadelphia, snowstorms in Detroit and so on.

Except -- it's unseasonably warm and nice, here in Chicago at least -- I saw people wearing shorts today! in November! -- and as far as I know that's supposed to continue into next week. So there's another variable that looks to be leaning in the Dems' favor.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, there are six poll aggregators I am aware of that offer a modeled prediction -- PEC, HuffPost, Daily Kos, Pierre-Antoine Kremp, NYT Upshot, and 538. In order, they give Clinton's chances of winning as >99%, 98.3%, 90%, 90%, 84%, and 64.8%.

I am inclined to think that the two highest (PEC and HuffPost) and the one lowest (538) are outliers.

For HuffPost, I have the same problem as Justinian. Their prediction seems fair for the state-by-state numbers they give, but their numbers are higher than anyone else's. They give Clinton's chance of winning Florida, for example, at 93%. NONE of the others have it any higher than 77%. Where are they getting those numbers, and why are they so much higher than the others?

538, on the other hand, is an outlier in the other direction. They give Clinton's chance of winning Florida at 52%, when the lowest any of the others gives is 69%. The reasons for that have been discussed endlessly here, and I will say I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with them having a model that has high state-to-state correlation and incorporates large error bars when the number of undecided and third party voters is high. But I do think it makes them an outlier in terms of how big they think the uncertainty is.

In contrast, we have four models with state-by-state predictions relatively in keeping with each other -- PEC, Daily Kos, Pierre-Antoine Kremp, and NYT Upshot (there are minor differences, such as Daily Kos giving Clinton a much higher chance in New Hampshire than the others, but they are for the most part similar.)

PEC takes those numbers and comes to a conclusion I find dubious. PEC's overall prediction seems odd if you look at their numbers on a state-by-state basis. They predict Clinton with a 69% chance in New Hampshire, 63% in North Carolina, 74% in Florida, and 63% in Nevada -- states which, if Clinton lost all four, would probably mean losing the election. Now, she's ahead in their model in all of them, so it's reasonable to predict a good chance of Clinton's success, but even if those numbers are considered to be completely uncorrelated and there is no possibility of error, you still get about 1.1% chance of losing all four, so shouldn't their number be below 99%? And if they are correlated, even slightly, or there is a chance of polling error, shouldn't it be less than that?

The other three, in contrast, have similar state-by-state numbers, but all have Clinton in a lower but still-high range -- 84% to 90%, e.g. a high chance of winning but not guaranteed.
posted by kyrademon at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

WaPo The early vote scenario is by no means uniformly good for Hillary Clinton

Some of this is kind of BS, as it relies on data from a few days ago and ignores the surge in early voting over the past couple days. It does, however, show the effectiveness of voter suppression efforts in OH and NC. A lower percentage of black early voters in GA, OH, and NC isn't great, but Hispanic (their term) turnout is up across the board and none of those states are essential to a Clinton win.

One interesting bit with regard to Trump's sudden announcement that he's going to VA:

In Virginia, you'll notice, the increase in early voting ballots is heavily centered in the northeastern part of the state -- the Democratic suburbs of Washington that are heavily responsible for the political shift in the state.

Of course, he's stopped paying his chief pollster, so it's hard to conclude his actions are based on any kind of data right now.
posted by zachlipton at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

This beautiful drawing (Facebook) was linked through the Pantsuit Nation group (which is now over 950K members!), but the poster said it's fine to share and made it public on her own page. By 15-year-old Abigail White of Texas.
posted by sallybrown at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

Tony Schwartz on p.m. Joy. She is asking what Trump's reaction will be to losing.

Trump is basically saying, "I will not be deterred by reality."
"Short of +300 EVs, Trump is going to fight this."
posted by Sophie1 at 4:09 PM on November 5, 2016

McMuffins for McMuFinn

I didn't realize until now that McMullin had chosen a VP candidate whose name adds the "fin" to the end of "McMuffin".

GUYS HE'S BEEN IN ON THE JOKE THE WHOLE TIME
posted by mmoncur at 4:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

In 2011, Trump said he supported 'amnesty' for some undocumented immigrants

"Well first of all he's really talking about something where somebody has been in the country for 25 years, they've been educated here, they're really tremendously performing people, and citizens, or not citizens depending — I guess he's talking about if they become, or should they become, citizens," Trump said. "The fact is he's showing a lot of compassion. Now I know both of them, and they're both very, very, good people. I like what Newt is saying to a certain extent. It's a very limited thing, but he's talking about people that have really been terrific people for this country for a long, long, period of time. He's saying it's very, very, tough to throw them out.

"I tell you, I know Michele," said Trump. "And if you told Michele, 'Go across the street. You see that family? They've been here, they've been really producers for this country for 25 years. They're great people, their children are educated, their children are producers, you go tell that family to get out of here and get into their own country,' I don't think she could do it, because she's a good person."

"This isn't conservative, I'm the world's most conservative person, this isn't conservative. This is compassion," added Trump.

"Is it amnesty?" asked "Fox and Friends" host Steve Doocy.
"I guess to a certain extent, for a very limited number of people, it would be considered amnesty, but how do you tell a family that's been here for 25 years to get out?" responded Trump.

More importantly though, As Trump Inches Closer, Anxiety Sets In Among Undocumented Immigrants: "When your life is literally on the line, the election takes on new meaning."

Nearly every day, her mother calls to ask “how our girls,” ― Clinton and Nevada Democratic senate candidate Catherine Cortez Masto ― are doing,Gamez said. Those calls have become more panicky than usual recently. But they serve to motivate as well.

“Fear is turning into, ‘OK, let’s getting into reality and let’s do something about this,’” Gamez said of her mother. “Because if [Trump] wins, we’re going to lose everything.”

Now I'm just thinking about the Can we stay? ad and I'm tearing up.
posted by zachlipton at 4:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Trump just added a stop in LEESBURG, VA for Sunday night.

And Pence is in Fairfax, VA today. Leesburg is borderline real America part of Virginia, but Fairfax is blue blue blue. RealClearPolitics: Clinton +5.2. HuffPost Pollster: Clinton +6.4.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2016

When you go low, I go high 80% of the time, and knee you in the balls the other 20% of the time.
posted by guiseroom at 4:16 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

I know having the candidate appear in tank has been a big no-no since Dukakis, but Hills looks pretty good.
fake and Facebook. But I repeat myself.
posted by kirkaracha (staff) at 4:16 PM on November 5, 2016

A friend just added me to PN completely unbidden, and as far as I know she has no connection to MetaFilter. I mean, that shouldn't surprise me — membership is over a million now, it's legit a mass phenomenon.

But the stories, the stories...my god, it's so real I can barely handle it. Whatever happens on Tuesday, may these women continue to be a conscious and purposive force in American life. The country would never be the same.
posted by adamgreenfield at 4:16 PM on November 5, 2016 [22 favorites]

PEC takes those numbers and comes to a conclusion I find dubious. PEC's overall prediction seems odd if you look at their numbers on a state-by-state basis. They predict Clinton with a 69% chance in New Hampshire, 63% in North Carolina, 74% in Florida, and 63% in Nevada -- states which, if Clinton lost all four, would probably mean losing the election.

If she wins any one of those four, she pretty much can't lose, is the thing. She doesn't need to win all four of them to win.
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

If Clinton gets 400 plus EV I will, Sam Wang-esque, eat a bug.

But only like a cricket or something. Not a creepy spider or caterpillar.

I've had Chapulines before. They're pretty tasty.

And here's some Cricket Recipes. Just in case.
posted by happyroach at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

When you go low, I go high 80% of the time, and knee you in the balls the other 20% of the time.

Classy.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

> "So I'm an expat and it is killing me being out of the country for this election ... The drive to do something now is overwhelming."

obliquity of the ecliptic, Democrats Abroad has a phone banking program -- you might want to look into it! All you need is Google Chrome and an internet connection. I was doing it earlier in the week, and I know at least some states count absentee ballots so long as they are postmarked by election day, so it may still be worth doing.

On a completely different note, I'm also an expat, and last night we were out with some friends and one of them was wearing a Trump hat. Not a MAGA hat, but a hat with the word "Trump" taped to it on a piece of paper. He said he was wearing it to provoke discussion, which I am nearly certain is true, I don't think this guy is some kind of weird Scottish Trump supporter. Nonetheless, my spouse and I asked him to take it off, as we were finding it upsetting. He obliged immediately. Then someone else in the group felt obligated to give me a little lecture on how this was all part of the British sense of humor, and how his Austrian girlfriend would sometimes get upset and leave when people started goose-stepping around and heiling at parties. In short ... um.
posted by kyrademon at 4:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

Zeynep Tufekci has an NYT op-ed: WikiLeaks Isn’t Whistleblowing

Wanton destruction of the personal privacy of any person who has ever come near a political organization is a vicious but effective means to smother dissent. This method is so common in Russia and the former Soviet states that it has a name: “kompromat,” releasing compromising material against political opponents. Emails of dissidents are hacked, their houses bugged, the activities in their bedrooms videotaped, and the material made public to embarrass and intimidate people whose politics displeases the powerful. Kompromat does not have to go after every single dissident to work: If you know that getting near politics means that your personal privacy may be destroyed, you will understandably stay away.
...
Journalism ethics have to transition from the time of information scarcity to the current realities of information glut and privacy invasion. For example, obsessively reporting on internal campaign discussions about strategy from the (long ago) primary, in the last month of a general election against a different opponent, is not responsible journalism. Out-of-context emails from WikiLeaks have fueled viral misinformation on social media. Journalists should focus on the few important revelations, but also help debunk false misinformation that is proliferating on social media.

Those of us who aren’t reporters need better ways to respond, too. These hacks are done to steal our attention and to confuse us; the only effective response is to refuse to play this game on the hackers’ terms.

She has a tweetstorm that expands on this a little more too: "Surprising that US privacy-advocates are not alarmed at the harm the mass hack method does to ability to dissent."
posted by zachlipton at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [58 favorites]

> "If she wins any one of those four, she pretty much can't lose, is the thing. She doesn't need to win all four of them to win."

Yes, but with those numbers, the chance of losing all four together should be higher than 1%. Not a LOT higher if the predictions are perfect, but still higher.
posted by kyrademon at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Joy-Ann Reid: Why We Should All Fear the Rot Inside the FBI

The events of the past two weeks have made it all but impossible to have much faith in the FBI now. The agency has, through the actions of a minority cell of unknown size, been severely tainted, potentially dragging down the reputations of even the finest agents in its ranks.

After all, how can we trust the nation’s foremost federal law enforcement agency now that it has become clear that a faction of its agents used a conspiracy theory-hawking political book to launch a partisan probe into a presidential candidate?

That unprecedented prospect: that federal law enforcement could take it upon themselves to try and swing a national election using allegations gleaned from a partisan hatchet job financially linked to the target’s political opponent, is Third World stuff. It makes the already creepy chants of “lock her up!” at Trump rallies reminiscent of a spiraling coup d’etat in a banana republic, because clearly, some in the FBI want to make those chants come true. And it makes Rudy Giuliani’s assertion, two days before Comey’s vague oppo dump, that the campaign had “a couple of things up our sleeve to turn [the race] around,” an ominous tell indeed.

posted by tonycpsu at 4:24 PM on November 5, 2016 [51 favorites]

Argh, via that Drudge link I just fell down a very disturbing rabbit-hole of alt-righters who are now convinced that secret food code-words like "pizza" and "walnut sauce" in the emails prove that Podesta and the Clintons were involved in some kind of secret child sex-trafficking ring ([real], not linking because obviously).

Apparently these winners are sending daring investigators to Comet Ping-Pong in DC, which is the place they've decided is ground zero for the trafficking ring, to order pizza while freaking out the waitstaff because of how obviously pants-shittingly terrified they are about a place I can confirm is just a normal restaurant that has pizza and some ping pong tables. I think we might have even had a MetaFilter meetup there a couple years ago.
posted by Copronymus at 4:24 PM on November 5, 2016 [14 favorites]

From New Hampshire, thank you so much to all the volunteers who are coming in from nearby blue states as fresh troops. We're totally exhausted, but today we had enough people coming in long distance that we were able to redirect some of them to other locations.
posted by XMLicious at 4:24 PM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

as far as I know she has no connection to MetaFilter

Oh totally, I was invited by 3 or 4 different people who are not only not MeFites, but from dramatically different parts of the country, and don't know one another. It's encouraging. Thing is I'm sure a lot of them have been wide open about being Team Hillary from early on, so I'm not sure it means a lot more support than we already knew about, but I really like the stories from folks deep in red country who are keeping their affiliation private.
posted by Miko at 4:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Yes, but with those numbers, the chance of losing all four together should be higher than 1%. Not a LOT higher if the predictions are perfect, but still higher.

(1-0.69)*(1-0.63)*(1-0.74)*(1-0.63) = 0.01103
posted by effbot at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

OK, so Pantsuit Nation appears to be achieving true virality, based on a few searches I ran on Google and Facebook, at a remarkable clip. It is in expanding by the hour. It's a damn popular facebook search that yields nothing obvious. Apparently the intersection is with "National Pantsuit Day." Also, Beyonce, nuf said.

Interesting. Is this somehow originating with Clinton's social media team or is it really an organic "secret women for Hillary" group? I've been predicting a hidden women's vote (especially among white lower-middle-class women) in these threads since back in July, although of course so have others, and just based on a gut feeling and knowing a lot of working class white women. It would be amazing to see it materialize, even more to see it empowered by virality at the crucial moment, that is, in the next two days. I've been a bit surprised the campaign didn't make a more explicit play to appeal to the privately appalled-by-trump female voter,* but this looks like it might do that organizing work.

Whether it's organic or campaign driven, here we are doing the Lord's work on Metafilter.

I share the intense fantasy that he gets his ass kicked back to Queens by a huge hidden surge of women and Latinx voters. I want so much to believe it could happen. The sense of power it might create among both women and Latinx (and other minorities of course) would be lasting, I think.

But I tell myself confirmation bias is a hell of a drug. And I just wrote Hillary my third check in three days.

* ETA if they did the appeal just right, I would never have noticed as a white guy though
posted by spitbull at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

They predict Clinton with a 69% chance in New Hampshire, 63% in North Carolina, 74% in Florida, and 63% in Nevada -- states which, if Clinton lost all four, would probably mean losing the election.

If she wins any one of those four, she pretty much can't lose, is the thing. She doesn't need to win all four of them to win.

...the odds of losing all 4 together are, wait for it, 1.1%.

Math is hard.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

And here's some Cricket Recipes. Just in case.
posted by happyroach at 4:17 PM on November 5

/sideeye
posted by petebest at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

After knocking on doors all day, I feel more and more hopeful for Tuesday. In Asheville we had dozens and dozens of volunteers visiting every nook and cranny of the county. GOTV is what we do. The GOP has nothing like this machine and nothing like this commitment. Now most of the doors I knocked on were people not at home, or people who'd moved, or people who'd voted today or yesterday (thankfully they'd crossed out anyone who voted before that). But I talked to one 18-year-old who was planning to vote on Monday. I told her that early voting was over and she'd have to go on Tuesday, and I helped her make a plan. Obama won NC by 5 votes per precinct in 2008. Tiny gains matter. Every vote matters. We are going to win this.
posted by rikschell at 4:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [37 favorites]

Comet Ping-Pong in DC, which is the place they've decided is ground zero for the trafficking ring

ok I literally know a NUN who goes there for pizza
posted by sallybrown at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

Now I'm just thinking about the Can we stay? ad and I'm tearing up.

I can't imagine being a teacher in one of our local (Chicago, heavily Latinx) public schools right now and knowing that a non-zero number of my kids was trying to deal with normal kid stuff plus the fear that their parent(s) / family members who are undocumented might have to leave; that they themselves might be ripped away from their country and their neighborhood and their friends and everything they know because of the hatred that's being unleashed in this country.

90% is not good enough odds. 99% is not good enough.

350 electoral votes would not be good enough to wipe away the harm that has been done in this deplorable year.

Next Tuesday cannot be the end of this struggle; it has to be the beginning of a new chapter in our country's long march toward justice and equality and true reconciliation.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:34 PM on November 5, 2016 [44 favorites]

That moment in the middle of this video when Robby Mook jumps out of his plane seat at the announcement that NBC called the nomination for Hillary [...]

I just now realised that the references to "Mook" in Ellickson's Twitter feed were talking about an actual person; that "Mook" isn't just a way of referring to some anonymous underling. This makes a lot more sense; I wondered why everybody was using 1930s gangster talk.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:36 PM on November 5, 2016 [38 favorites]

> "...the odds of losing all 4 together are, wait for it, 1.1%."

Right. And that's assuming there's no correlation at all, and no uncertainty due to possible polling error. So even if Wang thinks averaging the public polls reduces error to nil, and results are uncorrelated, >99% seems too high. And since I do think there must be at least some correlation and uncertainty, I would expect a good model to give a somewhat lower number.

So, frankly, does Wang, at least according to the recent tweet of his that people have been linking.
posted by kyrademon at 4:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Is this somehow originating with Clinton's social media team or is it really an organic "secret women for Hillary" group?

They bear every hallmark of being actual grassrots groups: pleas from overwhelmed admins, no professional graphic design, very few admin posts - plus, there are several. I don't think you could make this as an intentionally-viral effort if you tried. It really feels like other campaigns I've been involved in that were just started by community members using Facebook as a platform for communication.
posted by Miko at 4:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

if they were putting the big guns in North Carolina or Florida

For NC, it becomes "where?" NC's Dem-rich metro areas are Charlotte and the Triangle and the Triad, then there's a population drop off to places like Fayetteville and Rocky Mount and Asheville. At some point you're going to hit diminishing returns. The campaign team will have tomorrow to crunch the final NC early voting lists and work out who needs to be contacted before Tuesday. Kaine's going to be in Charlotte and Wilmington on Monday before heading back to VA for election day.

I think we'd all agree with Josh Marshall that the Clinton campaign has the best model of the electorate available to anyone, and so we just have to read the tealeaves (however we may) from its scheduling, not from public polls or Trump's itinerary.

(Trump has a weird fixation on Loudoun County, even though he talks about coal miners when he's speaking there.)
posted by holgate at 4:38 PM on November 5, 2016

There are times when it just doesn't pay to talk with folks:

Friend (good friend, voted already and in my opinion correctly): This shit worries the hell out of me, man.

Mooski: The reputable polls are pretty solid, and the early voting numbers I'm reading on MeFi (all my friends and family know what that means) look okay. I'd say the chances are pretty damn good.

F: Yeah, well.

M: What?

F: Dude, we're just waiting to see if the cancer in this country's taken over more than 50% of the body.

M: ...

M: Fuck you, next two rounds are on you.

We got a lot of work ahead of us, win or lose.
posted by Mooski at 4:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [25 favorites]

Is this somehow originating with Clinton's social media team or is it really an organic "secret women for Hillary" group?

I think it is legit organic. People have been talking about these secret groups for months, for some reason they didn't take off like this until now (perhaps because this was organized around a simple action/event of 'wear this thing on this day'?). This past week/weekend is when volunteer mobilization really ramped up, so maybe that's really spurred the growth?

What is interesting is because of the size of this group and the BIZARRE nature of this election, you get women who might not overlap on many issues - people whose profile pictures are "Black Lives Matter" like one of my friends commenting on posts by people with the "blue line cop memorial" graphics as their profile picture and saying "Go girl! Turn Texas Blue!" It's really something. There is an overwhelming vibe of support and protection of each other. There was a post I saw by an older woman holding her I Voted sticker that apologized for her "ugly" wrinkled hands - it got hundreds of comments in response saying "we love your hands, those hands show years of working hard" and the like. No tearing each other down. We have put everything else aside.
posted by sallybrown at 4:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [67 favorites]

I canvassed in Central Florida today. Lots of people weren't home, but we left literature at their houses. The people we did talk to were uniformly enthusiastic & excited to vote. I brought along my brother. This was his first time canvassing, my third. He was seriously impressed by what he heard. He's pretty convinced now that the minority vote is going to turn Florida blue. It was a great day. Oh, and I was one of about 20 women who turned up to canvas this morning. And that was just for the 9:00 Saturday morning shift.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

I just now realised that the references to "Mook" in Ellickson's Twitter feed were talking about an actual person; that "Mook" isn't just a way of referring to some anonymous underling. This makes a lot more sense; I wondered why everybody was using 1930s gangster talk.

That explains the Podesta e-mails talking about recipes for giggle-water
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Trump has a weird fixation on Loudoun County

A Guy In A Trump Shirt Carried A Gun Outside Of A Virginia Polling Place. Authorities Say That's Fine. | Huffington Post

"23 hours ago - WASHINGTON ― A man wearing a Donald Trump shirt and carrying a weapon stood outside a voting location in Loudoun County, Virginia, on Friday. . . "

Hm.
posted by petebest at 4:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Report from the field: I've been volunteering with Somerville for Hillary since late September, right after the first debates. Last Thursday was my first time phone captaining (training/answering questions/cat-herding--and I got to meet pxe2000!) and we had over 50 people, well over twice any previous phone bank. Today I went up to NH - the shift I left with had 30 cars in it, with each carload being given a packet of about 30 households, meaning that in our shift alone 900 doors got knocked and leaflets got left and conversations got had. They ran out of canvassing packets and had to print more.

We managed to catch Colin Van Ostern (D candidate for NH gov) and he told us that there were over 5000 volunteers in NH that day; assuming that they went out in groups of three-ish and each had a packet of about the same size, that means that TODAY ALONE we knocked on over 50,000 doors.

Our last door was the best of the day: a woman gardening outside who looked really grumpy at being interrupted and then proceeded to ask us why it was, exactly, that we were supporting Hillary. She griped about all the negativity in the media and how she kept hearing that Hillary was untrustworthy and she just really wanted to know why we would spend our weekend doing this. The three of us canvassing together all explained all the reasons we were with her--her record of service to families and kids, her work for 9/11 first responders, her work to get kids with disabilities into the school system, her work with CHIP, her diplomatic work, etc. etc. etc. and by the end of it she was smiling and nodding along and agreeing and adding to our points...and saying that she was going to tell all of this to her husband too. She finished by asking if she had to change her registration (she's a Republican!) to vote for Hillary and we assured her that in the privacy of the voting booth, she could choose whomever she wanted.

Personally, I'm gonna count that as +1, maybe even +2, for Hillary.

If I may, I'm going to copy-pasta my most recent Facebook post because I think maybe some Mefites could stand to hear it too:

Hey peeps. Let's talk about self-care for a second, yeah? If you're stressed out by all this craziness, it's not only ok, but super important to take care of yourself. Sign off the internet, hug your loved ones, cuddle a puppy, get a massage, go to a dance or yoga class, go on a run. Bake some cookies. Have some sex. Sign off the internet. Did I mention sign off the internet? For the love of god, stop refreshing 538. It's not helping anyone.

If it helps you to volunteer, there are lots of things available this weekend, ranging from canvassing to phone banking to dropping snacks off at your closest organization point. You can phone bank from home (hillaryclinton.com/calls) or from a local office (hillaryclinton.com/events). Find a canvassing event near you (hillaryclinton.com/gotv). Check Facebook for the closest campaign office ("$yourCommunity for Hillary" is a pretty good place to start) and stop by with some food or snacks. Real food and bottled water are going to be especially appreciated as some organizers and volunteers are going to be working multiple shifts back-to-back through Tuesday. You can even do things like text encouragement to volunteers (hillaryclinton.com/page/volunteer-online)!

The most important thing? The one, single, solitary thing that everyone can do? VOTE. It matters.

We're all in this together. We're stronger together. I wish that all of you who are stressed out could see these campaign offices and how incredibly well-organized they are. When they talk about Hillary's ground game - guys, I have seen it and I have done it and it is ON POINT. I don't know for sure who will win, but I know there are a hell of a lot of dedicated, organized, smart, kind people working to make our first female president a reality.

I believe that she will win.
posted by athenasbanquet at 4:48 PM on November 5, 2016 [67 favorites]

Sam Wang is great but this ain't a 99% Clinton race. It's probably not a 65% race either.

The Bayesian probabilities they're computing are subjective anyway, in the sense that they represent degrees of belief, not frequencies. There is no feasible notion of a "correct" probability in this kind of situation.

Also, it's worth keeping in mind that any honest statistician in a domain like political forecasting will tell you his or her model is wrong. As Andrew Gelman puts it, "In the social sciences, it is rare for there to be an underlying theory that can provide meaningful constraints on the functional form of the expected relationships among variables, let alone the distribution of noise terms."

Lastly, one important idea in that paper is ensembling multiple models into a mixture weighted by their ability to explain existing observations, which in this case would include prior elections. Of course, you can't do that with the 538 model, because no one else knows enough about how it works to reproduce it.
posted by Coventry at 4:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Celebrity endorsements, music edition (via twitter):

George Clinton (no relation ;) ): @CNN George Clinton voting for Hillary Clinton vote vote vote don't get it twisted your vote counts

Sean Ono Lennon: When @george_clinton tells you to do something, you do it!
posted by sallybrown at 4:51 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

Right. And that's assuming there's no correlation at all, and no uncertainty due to possible polling error. So even if Wang thinks averaging the public polls reduces error to nil, and results are uncorrelated, >99% seems too high. And since I do think there must be at least some correlation and uncertainty, I would expect a good model to give a somewhat lower number.

Wang does these calculations for all the states (and a subset of the combinations). You can see those results here. Blue bars are 95% confidence intervals, so you can see that if the election were held today, he thinks Trump would have about a 2% chance of winning. The top line numbers (random drift and Bayesian) include movement from now until Tuesday. The Bayesian is so high because it assumes the overall national response will trend back towards the election average, which is a slightly higher Clinton lead. It is a little odd that the random drift model is higher, but there may be some weird non-linear response going on between the national margin and the actual EV outcome (i.e. a 0.5% change in overall sentiment results in a much higher win probability for Clinton than it would for Trump). That might also be where Wang is zeroing in on his overconfidence.

Okay, I swear now I'm out of poll talk.
posted by one_bean at 4:52 PM on November 5, 2016

Field update: knocked on 50-some doors on this rainy Saturday. Had about a dozen awesome conversations with voters, and one super shitty conversation with a Trump supporter who, while he was shouting at me, actually, literally kicked his dog so hard it yelped. Someone please let the 2016 writers' room know that one was a little too on-the-nose.
posted by dersins at 4:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [57 favorites]

Keep digging that hole:

Trump intro speaker attacks election officials for keeping polls open in Nevada so “a certain group” could vote

“you feel free right now?"

(twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 4:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

@HillaryforNM
"Hold the door!" George R.R. Martin surprised volunteers in Santa Fe today to encourage early voting. 🗳 Learn more: http://IWillVote.com [pic]
posted by chris24 at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire Democratic candidate for the Senate with more than a fighting chance, says she has a financial shortfall relative to her campaign's plans for Monday and Tuesday. If you have any to spare, please consider donating to her.

Done.

By the way, suggestions for where to send money have really been helpful. I'm not able to give a lot, but when y'all suggest candidates to give to, it does generate donations. Thank you!
posted by duffell at 5:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

Thanks, duffell & prefpara!
posted by Coventry at 5:05 PM on November 5, 2016

"Short of +300 EVs, Trump is going to fight this."

Oh, I will laugh so hard on election night!

I've had Chapulines before. They're pretty tasty.

They were on the menu at the neighborhood taco place when I went for dinner an hour ago.
posted by mikelieman at 5:07 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Trump has a weird fixation on Loudoun County

Maybe he's trying to fire up his base of retired FBI agents.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:12 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

If I never hear from AJ Delgado again, it will not be too soon. She never answers a question, she is rude and does nothing for her candidate, as far as I can tell.
posted by Sophie1 at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2016

Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire Democratic candidate for the Senate with more than a fighting chance, says she has a financial shortfall relative to her campaign's plans for Monday and Tuesday. If you have any to spare, please consider donating to her.

A) Done!
B) Is there a source for that that I can tweet out to ... encourage ... my friends with?
posted by miguelcervantes at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, in case anybody else was procrastinating about donations (I know, I suck) worrying about filling out endless forms and so on, after donating based on the link above, I realize that doing it on my phone was a one-click Apple Pay donation.

Hassan Donations
Clinton Donations
posted by instamatic at 5:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I just voted in Colorado. Grabbed the dog and walked to the 24-hour ballot drop box, gave the ballot a smooch, gave the dog a smooch, and did my small part in making history.

Walking it over was important to me as someone who is recently disabled. This summer I could barely walk to the corner and now I can walk a whole mile without stopping. It's been quite a year and I am excited and proud to vote for Hillary and for the progressive candidates in downticket races who support and include people like me.

My state is blue but my county is red, and the GOTV mission here is out in full force. I had a phone banker and a canvasser today, and both marked me down for Hillary and Senator Bennet. And there were other canvassers out in my neighborhood in pairs.

During Bush/Kerry, we didn't have early voting here in Colorado. I flew across the country from an assignment and waited in line for 2.5 hours, only to be told that they had no record of my registration (funny that it happened to dozens of democrats and unaffiliateds in line near me as well) and forced to vote by provisional ballot.

Early voting is a godsend -- at the drop box, there was never a moment when someone hadn't stopped to drop a ballot and help keep Tuesday's election channels clear for Election Day voters . Everyone looked cheerful and happy to be doing it. It was a Saturday afternoon -- there were no protestors, no signs. No stickers this way, but it was a pleasure to cast my vote anonymously and in peace.
posted by mochapickle at 5:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [74 favorites]

Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire Democratic candidate for the Senate with more than a fighting chance, says she has a financial shortfall relative to her campaign's plans for Monday and Tuesday. If you have any to spare, please consider donating to her.

Done from this NH voter. Thanks for the heads up.
posted by schoolgirl report at 5:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

If I never hear from AJ Delgado again, it will not be too soon. She never answers a question, she is rude and does nothing for her candidate, as far as I can tell.

For me that goes for the entire Aryan Master Race Poster Girl crew. Scottie, Kellyanne, Kayleigh, Betsy. Any network that keeps them after the election needs to be fully boycotted.

That also applies to the men who defended Trump. But the irony that all of Donald's female defenders were all white and had blonde hair and blue eyes was not lost on me.
posted by Talez at 5:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

Is there a source for that that I can tweet out to ... encourage ... my friends with?

Nothing online that I know of. I can pastebin one of her emails if you like. Here's an excerpt from one:

Alex — I just looked, and we missed our most recent fundraising goal. As of now, we don't have enough cash to execute our last-minute plans to turn out voters to elect Governor Hassan to the Senate.

The worst part? A handful of recent polls show that Ayotte is just slightly ahead. There's still time to make a difference, but we have to act fast

posted by Coventry at 5:24 PM on November 5, 2016

The doorbell rang a while ago at our out-in-the-woods house in fairly rural south west Virginia. We rarely get callers, but I went running to the door, high with excitement that it might be a GOTV person. And lo and behold, it was a lovely man with his Clinton/Kaine sticker. I'm not sure he was quite prepared for the excitement in our house (all three of us rushing to the door, inviting him in, assuring him that all was well with our vote, proving anxiously that we were prepared for Tuesday etc.). I also told him about what I was hearing on MetaFilter and updated him on that as an anxiety reducing resource, so doing my bit also in getting out the $5 donations our way too ;)
posted by recklessbrother at 5:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [70 favorites]

So far this weekend I've donated to Hassan and Kander and Kirkpatrick (who doesn't have a real chance to win against McCain, but I still want her to make a strong showing). I wanted to be out canvassing, but since I can't, I'm chipping in another way instead.

I'm totes broke, but hey, I figure I'm giving myself and everybody else a lady President and blue Senate for Christmas, so.
(Okay, fine, they won't actually take office until January, but they'll be sparkling under the Christmas tree all the same.)
posted by Superplin at 5:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Maggie Hassan ... please consider donating to her.

Just made my fifth donation to her campaign this year. I've used PEC's ActBlue donation link to make several rounds of donations to democratic senate candidates in close races this election (have also donated to Clinton in the general and Sanders and Canova in the primaries).

As an expat, I can't canvass, so I'm doing what I can. I've even made a few calls for the Mefites United team (from Austria) :)
posted by syzygy at 5:36 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

These Australians Crossed The Ocean To Knock On Doors For Hillary Clinton in a minivan they've nicknamed the "Truck of Justice": They cannot vote. They cannot give money. They cannot accept a paycheck or make decisions for the campaign. Yet they have traveled about 10,000 miles to arrive on American voters' doorsteps, and knock..
posted by TwoStride at 5:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [55 favorites]

Thanks to those of you donating, especially down-ballot. As a non-citizen living in the US, I can't donate no matter how many emails they send me. I dedicate my phonebank calls to you!
posted by une_heure_pleine at 5:39 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

Thanks to those of you donating, especially down-ballot. As a non-citizen living in the US, I can't donate no matter how many emails they send me. I dedicate my phonebank calls to you!

If you're an LPR you can donate.
posted by Talez at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

PEC has a link on their sidebar to an ActBlue campaign for PEC's high-impact senate races. Right now donations get split between Jason Kander, Katie McGinty, Maggie Hassan, Deborah Ross, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Evan Bayh. They say these are " races where a combination of a small polling margin and the state's population suggest that you can make an impact. Importance is scored using The Power Of One Vote calculation at election.princeton.edu." and it was last updated on 11/1.
posted by amarynth at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

If Clinton gets 400 plus EV I will, Sam Wang-esque, eat a bug.

I will eat an entire pie.

I will also do that if she loses, but for a different reason.
posted by rifflesby at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [51 favorites]

Also a non- citizen. Note that you can donate if you have a green card.
posted by Coventry at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

If you're an LPR you can donate.
I know, but I'm not. And I'm actually OK with the rule - I think preventing foreign financial influence on a country's elections is sensible. It's just gotten mildly frustrating to be constantly asked for money that I'm willing to give, but can't.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 5:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'm eating a damn pie either way folk.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 5:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

If Clinton gets 400 plus EV I will, Sam Wang-esque, eat a bug.

I will eat an entire pie.

I will contribute considerably to the MetaFilter Moderator Libations Fund, should one exist, and lobby hard for one, should it not.

This place has kept me sane.
posted by Mooski at 5:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

Do butterflies count as bugs? I would like to eat a sugared butterfly.
posted by Justinian at 5:51 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

New Nevada early voting update from Ralston Reports.

Let’s be conservative and say two-thirds of the vote is in – it was 70 percent in 2012 and turnout is down this year. That means there are roughly about 385,000 votes left. Let’s say Trump did the impossible and won Election Day by 10 points – 50-40. That would be 192,000 to 154,000, or 38,000 votes. He would probably still lose.

And the chances of Trump winning election day by 10 points are about the same as Billy Bush anchoring the CBS Evening News.

In the Senate race, Joe Heck probably would have to win Election Day by only half as much. But winning Tuesday by 5 points is a daunting task. The Heckophiles are on Twitter making comparisons to 2012 and using the lower lead percentages for the Democrats as a sign that Heck can pull a Dean Heller. Maybe. But private data I have seen belies it, and it would be a disaster for Catherine Cortez Masto and the Reid Machine if that occurred.

The Democratic strategy of building up a registration advantage, especially in Clark, then banking votes in in early voting has worked in the last two cycles. There is no reason to think it won’t this time, and there is no reason to believe the Democratic machine won’t work on Election Day, too.

Republicans may be right that they can get higher turnout on Tuesday. But that’s what they said in 2012, and Democrats won Election Day by 12,000 votes.

And consider this: Latino vote was a higher than usual percentage of the early vote – more than 13 percent. But many Hispanics don’t like to vote early, and that means many will vote Tuesday, which is a real problem for Republicans. In five of the six highest Latino precincts, early turnout was up from ’12, too.

I think the GOP will gain ground on Tuesday. But Clinton is too far ahead, I’d guess, and Cortez Masto may be, too, for it to make a difference.

Sometime this weekend or Monday, I will do some math on the down-ballot races and show you why the two GOP House seats in play are almost surely gone and why the Legislature may be, too, for Republicans.

Come Tuesday one phrase comes to mind for Nevada. FINISH HIM!
posted by Francis at 5:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

A Trump presidency would be a disaster for the entire world. They have a valid stake in this.
posted by rifflesby at 5:56 PM on November 5, 2016 [64 favorites]

In IA, turnout among registered Dems is substantially down compared to 2012. We aren't seeing this in other states with a lot of EV.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

But many Hispanics don’t like to vote early

Does anyone know what he's referencing, or is he just...saying this?
posted by sallybrown at 5:59 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Matt Mackowiak (Republican strategist) on Chris Hayes with the quote of the day.

"If Donald Trump loses, on Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., the Republican party is going to drop him like 3rd period French."
posted by Sophie1 at 6:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Uh huh. Will his voters?
posted by saturday_morning at 6:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

#BREAKING: Donald Trump was just rushed off the stage at his rally here in Reno, Nevada (twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 6:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

dersins: one super shitty conversation with a Trump supporter who, while he was shouting at me, actually, literally kicked his dog so hard it yelped.

I really hope you took his address and reported him to your local animal cruelty prevention organization. That's animal abuse.
posted by tzikeh at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

The "Australians travel across the world to canvass for Hillary Clinton" thing rubs me a little bit the wrong way. It's one thing if you're a non-citizen who lives here—sure, fine, do whatever the law allows you to do, you obviously have a stake in this.
This is an interesting question (full disclosure: I'm Australian living in the US). Part of me wants to say that since the US has such a massive influence on countries like Australia (it basically determines our foreign and military policy, plus has a lot of soft cultural power, before we even start talking about the risk of nukes), that the power differential is different for Australians campaigning here than if Americans went there. And it's not like those four people are going to make a massive difference anyway. But I see your point. If it was a larger-scale or state-sponsored effort going either way I'd be a lot more concerned. For what it's worth, when I've canvassed anyone who's noticed my accent has been impressed that we foreigners cared that much about an election we can't even vote in.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Yeah, there was a fight of some kind right in front of the stage. There are secret service and national guard there. Now they're... escorting someone out?
posted by Justinian at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2016

@ElectProject Places exceeding their 2012 total #earlyvote
AZ, AR, DE, DC, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, ME, MD, MA, MN, NV, NC, OK, SC, TN, UT, VA, WV & WI
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

#BREAKING: Donald Trump was just rushed off the stage at his rally here in Reno, Nevada

Finally did the math.
posted by Mooski at 6:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

Maggie Hassan

Done!
posted by diogenes at 6:07 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

#BREAKING: Donald Trump was just rushed off the stage at his rally here in Reno, Nevada

First thought was 'oh gawd they're going to stage something'. Hard not to think this.
posted by Jalliah at 6:08 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I know, I'm thinking it too. That and "please don't let it be one of our side, please don't let it be one of our side" causing it.
posted by sallybrown at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2016

Live feed of the Reno rally if for some ungodly reason you wish to see this.
posted by duffell at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2016

Would Aussies want a bunch of Yanks coming over during one of their elections and trying to throw our weight behind whichever of their candidates we prefer?

It already happens, though generally on a HQ level, as a kind of political cultural exchange trip. British MPs' parliamentary researchers or other young activists have volunteered for US campaigns for as long as I can remember, and vice versa. I'm glad that it's restricted to non-decision-making positions.

It's certainly less iffy than veteran US operatives (whether a Carville or a Manafort) flying in to advise campaigns around the world for off-season cash.
posted by holgate at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

It's not staged, they definitely hustled someone out and DT is back onstage.
posted by Sophie1 at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Will his voters?
Those who vote for him only because he is "not Hillary Clinton", yes. That's a large part of his Voting Block (basically those in the OTHER, non-Deplorable basket). And most of them will have no problem with Their Party's action both when they supported him and when they didn't. Back to Business As Usual.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2016

Matt Mackowiak (Republican strategist) on Chris Hayes with the quote of the day.

"If Donald Trump loses, on Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., the Republican party is going to drop him like 3rd period French

See, there's your problem. They still don't realize that they're not the Republican Party anymore; Trump is. There's no place for strategy in a party where the most important quality in a candidate for President is "telling it like it is".
posted by J.K. Seazer at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

But if you actually live in a different country? It may not be illegal for you to come over here and campaign in our elections, but it seems kinda…inappropriate? A bit weird anyway.

Given the oversized role of the US on the world stage, I feel like this kind of thing is most appropriate here. But I also don't think it's necessarily a bad thing if someone wants to cross political boundaries to achieve a goal.
posted by snofoam at 6:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Ben Jacobs: "Bald white guy in hoodie being led out in handcuffs after rushing stage at trump" with very blurry picture (twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 6:10 PM on November 5, 2016

This two-minute Trump ad is airing here in PA (it was just on during college football). Josh Marshall notes something about it that would be shocking if we hadn't been enduring months of this kind of shit:

Trump Rolls Out Anti-Semitic Closing Ad

The Trump narration immediately preceding Soros and Yellin proceeds as follows: "The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. For those who control the levers of power in Washington [start Soros] and for the global [start Yellen] special interests [stop Yellen]. They partner with these people [start Clinton] who don't have your good in mind."

For Blankfein: "It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the [start Blankein] pockets of a handful of large corporations [stop Blankfein] and political entities."

These are standard anti-Semitic themes and storylines, using established anti-Semitic vocabulary lined up with high profile Jews as the only Americans other than Clinton who are apparently relevant to the story. As you can see by my transcription, the Jews come up to punctuate specific key phrases. Soros: "those who control the levers of power in Washington"; Yellen "global special interests"; Blankfein "put money into the pockets of handful of large corporations."

This is an anti-Semitic ad every bit as much as the infamous Jesse Helms 'white hands' ad or the Willie Horton ad were anti-African-American racist ads. Which is to say, really anti-Semitic. You could even argue that it's more so, given certain linguistic similarities with anti-Semitic propaganda from the 1930s. But it's not a contest. This is an ad intended to appeal to anti-Semites and spread anti-Semitic ideas. That's the only standard that really matters.

This is intentional and by design. It is no accident.

If sanity prevails on Tuesday, we will have much to atone for as a nation for letting this vile creature come within sniffing distance of the presidency.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [61 favorites]

Bald white guy

*exhales*
posted by saturday_morning at 6:11 PM on November 5, 2016 [26 favorites]

I just went and watched the feed. DJT was doing his normal talking points, and then stopped to notice a protestor, asked how much the protestor was being paid by HRC, and then all of a sudden he was grabbed off the stage.

He's due in Denver later tonight.

I loathe him but I want him to end this campaign alive. Humiliated and humbled but alive.
posted by mochapickle at 6:11 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

'oh gawd they're going to stage something'
But remember, Dumb Donald is unable to stage a sincere fart without having Mark Burnett's production company doing major post-production work.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I'm hopeful that the Trump campaign is overestimating the size of the antisemitic voting block.
posted by diogenes at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Bald white guy

Egg? Is that you?
posted by dersins at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Joe Chip, I looked all over the voter info sites for the state and can find no legal statements one way or the other about having others deliver your ballot to a dropbox or the mailbox. I did see a cautionary statement for another year's election regarding a problem some were having with strangers coming to the door, offering no ID or bonafides, and asking to deliver people's ballots for them--not canvassers, just people. That was found to be some sort of scam that year. The upshot is that it appears you coworker can legally perform this service for your workplace, so long as you all are sure that your coworker will either deliver the ballots or return them to you if something goes wrong with the plan.

You can check your ballot status once the postal service has had time to deliver it to the local election office or once it has been picked up from the drop box by going to your county's election site. I found sites for King and Spokane counties via google but do not know if all counties offer trackers.
posted by Silverstone at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

He's back on stage. Says "No one said this would ever be easy" and thanks the secret service.

Early reports from the feed are that someone had a firearm.
posted by mochapickle at 6:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

(Trump has a weird fixation on Loudoun County, even though he talks about coal miners when he's speaking there.)

He has a golf course there. So he thinks of it as his territory, and I don't think he can imagine it being anything but pro-Trump. (He seems to not feel the same way for the winery he "rescued" from his "friend" Pat Kluge 2 hours further south, which is actually far closer to more people likely to vote for him. It may have something to do with the fact he plays golf but doesn't drink. Or that the nearest non-dinky airport is 90 minutes away. Or that he fears getting too close geographically to Larry Sabato in case reality forces a meeting. )

Also, our Trump calls here in Virginia have dropped down from 2x a day to once every 2-3 days (even though he promised he was pulling out of Virginia, he lied and is still putting money here), but the push-polling (3-4x a day) is way up, even though we tell them we don't do polls or discuss politics at all and then hang up. Plus, the Republicans and Republican-adjacaent organizations always spoof a local return number and/or caller, which really irks me.
posted by julen at 6:16 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

This two-minute Trump ad yt is airing here in PA. Josh Marshall notes something about it that would be shocking if we hadn't been enduring months of this kind of shit:

Trump Rolls Out Anti-Semitic Closing Ad

My question is this, is their really enough people out there, who aren't already with Trump who would get the anti-semitic references for an ad like this to make a difference? Because as horrible as it is, if you don't know why the ad has all these people wouldn't it seem weird? It's seems more like a preaching to the choir thing. You have to already be in the group to get it, sort of thing.

Or are they banking on people just feeling all scared because it sounds scary and winking at all the people in the know.
posted by Jalliah at 6:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Being the Secret Service body who has to take a bullet for Trump should really have the contractual clause - "Nov 9: Retire on full pay for life".

Make that double pay.
posted by Devonian at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Early reports from the feed are that someone had a firearm.

Bald white guy with a gun? Odds it was a Trump supporter increasing.
posted by dersins at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

someone had a firearm.

Pure speculation, but I can't see them letting him back out immediately if someone had a gun even if they wrestled the assailant down. More likely someone just tried to rush the stage unarmed.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm hopeful that the Trump campaign is overestimating the size of the antisemitic voting block.

Josh Marshall: Trump Rolls Out Anti-Semitic Closing Ad

From a technical and thematic perspective it's a well made ad. It's also packed with anti-Semitic dog whistles, anti-Semitic tropes and anti-Semitic vocabulary. I'm not even sure whether it makes sense to call them dog whistles. The four readily identifiable American bad guys in the ad are Hillary Clinton, George Soros (Jewish financier), Janet Yellin (Jewish Fed Chair) and Lloyd Blankfein (Jewish Goldman Sachs CEO).

The Trump narration immediately preceding Soros and Yellin proceeds as follows: "The establishment has trillions of dollars at stake in this election. For those who control the levers of power in Washington [start Soros] and for the global [start Yellin] special interests [stop Yellin]. They partner with these people [start Clinton] who don't have your good in mind."

For Blankfein: "It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the [start Blankein] pockets of a handful of large corporations [stop Blankfein] and political entities."

To some extent, I questioned whether Marshall is overselling it, but here's the thing. Trump's "closing argument" ad is based on his "global power structure" international banking conspiracy to destroy the US speech from last month. That was the speech where everyone was like, "yeah, this is really anti-Semitic." I mean first sentence of the New York Times article level everyone. That was the speech where actual neo Nazis were cheering "yes! He gets it!" in response. That's the speech Trump, and I presume Bannon, who clearly has his fingerprints all over this, said "yes, forget the people pointing out how terrible this was to say, let's say it more, let's make this the cornerstone of our final campaign strategy."

And I really shouldn't be that surprised. After all, we're talking about the same campaign that doubled down on literally every terrible thing to come out of Trump's mouth, from "they're rapists" on. And it's the same candidate who talked about wanting people with yarmakules to be counting his money, who stereotyped Jews at a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition, whose campaign posted a "sheriffs star" and a pile of cash on Twitter. But the thing that hurts me so much is that they were on notice with this one. He gave the speech, plenty of people said "this is wrong and you shouldn't be talking like this," and the campaign has instead responded by spending millions of dollars to ensure they spread this message as widely as possible.

I realize that makes me privileged and shallow, as if I wasn't paying enough attention as he doubled down on his racist and sexist and Islamophobic attacks and turned them all into ads too, the millions of people he's been hurting be damned. But he's gone and done it to me now too, and I feel sick.
posted by zachlipton at 6:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [21 favorites]

In Bill Mitchell related "weird little indicators" - I drove down I-95S out of DC earlier today, and coming back there was a big slow down. Which turned out to be caused by 3-4 idiots on an overpass with giant Trump-Pence signs waving to the interstate traffic, and people stopping to honk and rubberneck.

Since I was slowed down anyway I made sure to do my part and give them the full double bird out the drivers window. Sorry, traffic behind me, but it was a patriotic duty.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

Since I was slowed down anyway I made sure to do my part and give them the full double bird out the drivers window. Sorry, traffic behind me, but it was a patriotic duty.

See. This is what happens when you follow my example.
posted by Talez at 6:22 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just watched the feed. During the confused couple of minutes while Trump was offstage, a professional cameraman tried to close in and get footage. A bunch of rally attendees blocked the camera with Trump signs, then shoved the cameraman back, and when that didn't do enough, began landing blows on his face while someone else tried to take his camera away.

It's not enough for Trump to lose; I need these people to be humiliated and broken by a crushing defeat on election day.
posted by duffell at 6:23 PM on November 5, 2016 [57 favorites]

My question is this, is their really enough people out there, who aren't already with Trump who would get the anti-semitic references for an ad like this to make a difference?

There's multiple layers to this kind of thing. Some people just get it. For others it's laying the groundwork. They hear about these people being bad, and latter figure out what the common thread is.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

annotating the Trump spot: "...the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations..." ...that are NOT Trump Corporations. Jealous much, Donnie?
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:25 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

"Hold the door!" George R.R. Martin surprised volunteers in Santa Fe today

And in a remarkable instance of life imitating art, Trump is actually Ramsay Bolton.
posted by octobersurprise at 6:26 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Someone please catch me up to speed? Someone rushed the stage at Donnie's rally in Reno?
posted by vrakatar at 6:27 PM on November 5, 2016

It's not clear yet what happened. There was a disturbance of some sort, secret service rushed Cheeto off the stage, and then a bald white dude in a hoodie was escort out by the gmen.
posted by Justinian at 6:29 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Robert Costa, who is plugged into the campaign like nobody else in the press, wrote up that ad as Trump's "mind-meld with Bannon" in the closing stages. It's hard to deny that Bannon has turned Fox News Republicans into Breitbart/Infowars Trumpists. And it's also clear (e.g. that "hey, spot the secret Jew" thing with Jon Stewart) that Trump believes a bunch of rich Jewish people in Manhattan conspire against him -- people he thinks of as Jews first and foremost -- and has thought that since his days in Queens with his KKK-rally attendee dad.
posted by holgate at 6:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

digby: "CNN talkers say Trump going back to speech & not going crazy shows discipline Surrogate says shows he's got the temperament 2B president #oy"
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I don't think that antisemitism is a thing that either exists or doesn't exist. I think it's a cultural force that is sometimes dormant and that can be brought back to life. Trump isn't appealing to some sentiment that is out there in the population, I don't think. He's whipping something up because it's in his bet interest for that thing to be out there.

This is probably going to sound really naive but I'm trying to figure out this strategy. I agree that with Bannon it's more then likely. How would this whip up antisemitism if a person doesn't actually know that these particular people are Jewish? They would think these people are bad because Trump et al says so but not because they are Jewish per say.

Are they setting these people and the supposed conspiracy up as being bad so the foundation gets set and the Jewish part gets eased in later? Sort of oh and by the way they are all Jewish...think about it....
Or is it just about garnering a base of clueless support for the actual antisemitic forces so they can do what they want to do?
posted by Jalliah at 6:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Also, I think antisemitism is part of the package of misogyny, xenophobia and racism. Trump's got that covered a hundred ways to Tulsa already; he's not going to be picking up any liberal Jewhaters. But that's all he's got, so...

This is one thing that I suspect will alleviate the 'the next Trump will be a Supertrump without the obvious character flaws' fears - the people who are on board with this are all that there are, and there will be fewer of them pro rata in 2020 and fewer still in 2024. The danger will come if someone can identify and collect subgroups of the non-Trump demographics by forming a dark rainbow coalition, I mean, it's possible, but some aspects of Trump\s Always Be Closing 'this is your LAST CHANCE!' rhetoric isn't that far off base.
posted by Devonian at 6:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Lisa Bloom ‏@LisaBloom 6m6 minutes ago

My new Trump accuser client bravely speaks on video for the first time. Wait 'til you hear why. Will post within the hour. Watch this space.

(from twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 6:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Here's a video of someone being escorted out of the rally. Again, my theory is that he didn't have a gun since they are calmly escorting him somewhere rather than tasering/sitting on him.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 6:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Hillary Clinton Campaign Announces Election Eve National TV Ad

The Hillary Clinton campaign signaled Saturday some of its plans for the closing round of televisions ads ahead of Tuesday's election. A buy was made for a two-minute national TV ad, which according to a campaign official, will express a "positive and unifying message" to air during primetime network program Monday evening.

Sneak preview.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Striking photo of the protestor in Reno.
posted by saturday_morning at 6:32 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

There wasn't a gun, no way the SS let's Trump back out there if there was. Twitter is stupid.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:32 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

And in a remarkable instance of life imitating art, Trump is actually Ramsay Bolton.

Which would make HRC Sansa. At least for the HBO version, that sounds about right. Hopefully he's torn apart by his own surrogates.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:33 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I've seen several photos now, what's with the police at the rally in Reno looking more military than most actual soldiers? It's crazy.
posted by zachlipton at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Striking photo of the protestor in Reno.

Wow, "heavy police escort" is a good description!
posted by diogenes at 6:35 PM on November 5, 2016

my theory is that he didn't have a gun since they are calmly escorting him somewhere rather than tasering/sitting on him.
...or he just looked white enough.

Twitter is stupid.
This cannot be repeated enough. WORST. POSSIBLE. MEDIUM. for Breaking News, even if you only follow Good sources.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:36 PM on November 5, 2016

Wow, "heavy police escort" is a good description!

Yeah, the word 'jackbooted' leapt unbidden to mind.
posted by Mooski at 6:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I made the mistake of starting to read the Twitter comments under that picture. I don't recommend it.
posted by diogenes at 6:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I've seen several photos now, what's with the police at the rally in Reno looking more military than most actual soldiers? It's crazy.

'Murica.

Also, some of those are probably the Secret Service tactical team.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I thought, " Why in the heck is the US military at a rally?"
Then...oh...wait..
posted by Jalliah at 6:39 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Sigh

Twitter: I've spoken to six witnesses. Panic apparently sparked when someone yelled "he's got a gun". Unclear if he did. No-one I spoke to saw weapon
posted by sallybrown at 6:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Last Australian-related comment I promise, but I think one of our more beloved cartoonists, First Dog on the Moon, has something useful to say here:
The US election is a complete shambles, it is a total shemozzle! It's like a shambles and a shemozzle got together and had a whole family of calamities, who stole a truck full of hullabaloo and crashed it into a disaster show which exploded and burned down the catastrophe factory next door, but not before they accidentally knocked down the fences at the pandemonium farm and all the pandemoniums all escaped.
But a lot worse.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 6:40 PM on November 5, 2016 [18 favorites]

Trump intro speaker attacks election officials for keeping polls open in Nevada so “a certain group” could vote

“you feel free right now?"

Here's the transcript. That was the chairman of the Nevada GOP, whining about "a certain group" voting.
posted by zachlipton at 6:41 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

In other news, the Tim Kaine press bus was hit hard by a car (one report says a police car). People on the bus are fine, no word on the car. The motorcade kept going.
posted by zachlipton at 6:42 PM on November 5, 2016

Darned election officials letting people vote. It just ain't fair.
posted by petebest at 6:46 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

You know what's pretty cheering? Looking at a map of how little Clinton needs to win (as opposed to paths to a Trump victory). Check out this map (twitter) - that sea of red still gives us Madame President.
posted by sallybrown at 6:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

“you feel free to treat people not like you shittily right now?" Annotated That For You

The American Dream is dead if it no longer applies exclusively to certain specific Americans.
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2016

Trump also complained about people voting in Nevada (autoplaying video), though he didn't use the phrase "a certain group."
posted by zachlipton at 6:51 PM on November 5, 2016

Via: @KevinBohnCNN: "A law enforcement official tells CNN no weapon has been found related to the incident in Reno and Donald Trump"
posted by sallybrown at 6:54 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I think that given the stress level in the room right now we could all stand to benefit from this clip of Tim Kaine playing harmonica with Bon Jovi
posted by saturday_morning at 6:55 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

The American Dream is dead if it no longer applies exclusively to certain specific Americans.

Historically, it hasn't. Of the top of my head, "Frederick Douglass" comes to mind, but there might be an earlier citation.
posted by mikelieman at 6:56 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Instead of "certain group", Trump just said that the Dems rigged the polls in Vegas and bussed in outsiders. So, pick your flavour of herrenvolk democracy.

How would this whip up antisemitism if a person doesn't actually know that these particular people are Jewish?

I suppose it depends on how much exposure one has to casual anti-semitic stereotypes in everyday life. Bannon's gambling that enough people have the seeds planted that with enough horseshit he can get them to germinate.
posted by holgate at 6:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

No weapon found according to law enforcement source.
posted by Sophie1 at 6:58 PM on November 5, 2016

No weapon found.

Trump's social media people calling it an assassination attempt.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by saturday_morning at 7:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Stupid liberal. Couldn't even assassinate a political foe because of their own shitty gun laws. /s
posted by Talez at 7:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

The American Dream was always intended as an exclusively White Male Dream. And I've seen it said that it only became a major part of the culture after World War II when they had to throw out something to keep the newly returned veterans in line and push the women out who were doing their jobs while they were away.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Video of the Trump assassination attempt

[fake, clearly]
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:02 PM on November 5, 2016

Wait was it even confirmed he was a protester? Could it have just be a shady looking trump supporter in a hoodie? They can't be that much of a self-parody right?
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:02 PM on November 5, 2016

My son is visiting for a few days. He will take me to vote on election day. He has already voted by absentee ballot as his work sends him hither and yon sometimes with little notice.

So this afternoon we were eating fruit and fiddling around with a deck of cards when I proposed a quick game of War. "I'll be Hillary and you be Trump," was my challenge, which he accepted with an ugh. He called me a Nasty Woman, much to my glee, as he shuffled and dealt.

Dear Mefites, I am happy to report a decisive win for Hillary. Someone alert 538.
posted by maggieb at 7:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [37 favorites]

Trump's social media people calling it an assassination attempt.
Well, if all the guy wanted was to make Donald listen to something sensible, it could have caused his head to explode, so it would've been a serious threat.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Dear Mefites, I am happy to report a decisive win for Hillary. Someone alert 538.

Nate Silver's model says there's a 35% chance you actually lost.
posted by dersins at 7:05 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

From Mark Ambinder on Twitter

A Homeland Security official confirms the @ABC report: no gun found, crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted "gun."

posted by Francis at 7:05 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

The Media Never Raised the Bar for Donald Trump

Donald Trump’s closing argument is that he can use a teleprompter. Not necessarily that the words he reads off the teleprompter are true or intelligent, just that he can say all of them out loud and in order. In the final days of this campaign, we have returned to where we began, with an odd fixation on whether this man who aspires to the presidency can avoid saying anything ignorant, bigoted, inscrutable, or otherwise disqualifying for an hour or so at a time, once or twice a day.
...
If, when left unattended, a presidential candidate is likely to do something unpredictable but ill-advised, that’s a deadly serious character flaw that needs to be treated as such. If thrust before a global audience without a script, Trump routinely says and does things that make people think less of him, that’s a much bigger deal than whether it means he won or lost a campaign news cycle.
...
Everything we’ve seen over the past several months points to the fact that Clinton is at her strongest when she’s disintermediated, while Trump unvarnished is a walking murder-suicide. By leaving this contrast unstated, and saying nothing at all about its implications for the presidency, the media is failing those Americans who have a choice to make by November 8.

posted by kirkaracha at 7:07 PM on November 5, 2016 [47 favorites]

crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted "gun."

Can't wait for the NRA to assert that everybody in that room should have been packing.
posted by holgate at 7:08 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

So signs are deadly assassination weapons. Who knew?
posted by Jalliah at 7:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Donated to Maggie Hasan and gave a bump to Hillary while I was at it. Thanks for the tip.

I've been in a weird relatively-little-news bubble for the last week as I was unable to spend my usual half the day reading Metafilter election threads cover to cover. All I had for news was . . . news. And now I see how people can be so uninformed. If all you have time for is catching part of the broadcast news or catching headlines on a few news sites, you really have virtually no idea what's happening. I knew I was getting a lot of information here that I wouldn't otherwise but until this happened I had no idea how very much. It's really disturbing.
posted by HotToddy at 7:10 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

women born before women had the right to vote, voting.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:11 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

The oppo has droppo'd. Just watching...
posted by Devonian at 7:12 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Maggie Hassan, New Hampshire Democratic candidate for the Senate with more than a fighting chance, says she has a financial shortfall relative to her campaign's plans for Monday and Tuesday. If you have any to spare, please consider donating to her.

Done as well. WE NEED THE SENATE!
posted by Windopaene at 7:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Can't wait for the NRA to assert that everybody in that room should have been packing.

He just wanted a gun. It's like saying "beer me!"
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2016

Me too. Let's get the Senate.
posted by mollweide at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Hello, great humans. I just spent the day at campaign HQ in Brooklyn and that's what my next couple of days look like, too. I am here to testify that there is a great deal of competence in that building. My team was smart and funny and kind and I think I'll probably have a couple of new friends quite shortly. The mood is tense and highly competent. Good jokes are high-fived. They're flagging voting issues and ensuring individual voters figure out where they can do their thing. People keep reminding each other to take care of themselves, to get enough sleep, to eat some of the pizza in the conference room. So from HQ to you: take care of yourself, get some sleep, eat some pizza.
posted by lauranesson at 7:16 PM on November 5, 2016 [53 favorites]

A woman I went to high school with is one of the people behind the IWaited96Years site! HRC wrote to Estelle Schultz, the woman who inspired the site (facebook link, assuming I did that correctly).
posted by amarynth at 7:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Black Lives Matter... yard signs?

I'm slowly catching up with this thread, so I realize we've probably moved on from this subtopic, but I was most impressed to see one of these in Oakland . . .

— WAIT FOR IT —

. . . in the Montclair section. This is way up in the hills, up amongst the twisty, turny, curvy streets, where the views are absofreakinglutely amazing because you're looking down upon the entire Bay area and, yes, as you can imagine, the houses cost a freaking fortune. Lots of great hiking and biking as well. Some incredible, beautiful houses and lots of rich people up there.

Not exactly the part of Oakland where I'd expect fo dind a BLM yard sign, let alone boatloads of Hillary and Bernie(!) stickers and signs.

But then again . . . Northern California. I guess it's not actually THAT surprising, even if it IS a wealthy area. It's Oakland, not ~~Shallow~~ Palo Alto.
posted by CommonSense at 7:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Iraq war vet compares his gear to the cops in Nevada at that rally from Reno tonight, lols
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

MetaFilter: take care of yourself, get some sleep, eat some pizza.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

This Sign Kills Fascists.
posted by Justinian at 7:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

Well - it's more of the same. Any other candidate would be holed beneath the waterline, but we all know how Trump treats women and here's another example of him doing the 'fuck me or fuck off' creepozoid thing. He looks up skirts, he comments on what he sees, he gets shitty if you don't play along.

Jeez. This human shares my gender.
posted by Devonian at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I've not seen any BLM yard signs in Chicago. :( Is there some secret West Coast facebook group we have to join to get them?
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:26 PM on November 5, 2016

Any other candidate would be holed beneath the waterline...

There is some comfort in the fact that, despite his popularity, he is in fact holed beneath the waterline.
posted by Coventry at 7:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

The oppo has droppo'd. Just watching...

It's Lisa Boyne, whose account appeared on HuffPo a couple of weeks ago.

I now don't think the Casablancas connection -- which I think provides context for Trump expanding his operations from pageants to modelling after separating from Marla Maples -- will get any proper investigation unless the models themselves come forward. And they're probably under NDA or otherwise kept silent.
posted by holgate at 7:28 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Like I said in the last thread - I've seen more BLM signs in Grand Rapids than Trump signs. There's a place you can get them on Wealthy Street.
posted by LionIndex at 7:29 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Interesting:

Benjamin Ross @BenRossTransit
Political canvassing trick I learned today: Wear brown. More people open the door and talk to you because they think you're from UPS
posted by bluecore at 7:31 PM on November 5, 2016 [10 favorites]

I ALMOST FORGOT TO MENTION: I was working all day next to a badass woman who was our go-to for Spanish-language stuff and general knowing of everything. READERS, HER NAME IS MEREDITH.
posted by lauranesson at 7:35 PM on November 5, 2016 [58 favorites]

CommonSense, there is a group of white women who walk down my street to the Keller/580 overpass many mornings. They are carrying BLACK LIVES MATTER and END WHITE SUPREMACY signs. It makes me realize i live in quite a bubble.
posted by waitangi at 7:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

holgate, I bet you are right. There is nobody but Trump who would benefit from Trump being shot at. I'm glad the matter was a huge mistake and cleared up quickly, but I hate to realize that the truth of it probably does make no difference. It's a sad story of how miserably tense and yet essentially ridiculous his hardliners are right now.
posted by Countess Elena at 7:42 PM on November 5, 2016

MetaFilter: take care of yourself, get some sleep, eat some pizza.

My cats have a message for you about self-care, and about caring for those around you.
posted by mudpuppie at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2016 [24 favorites]

So I just talked to my husband who is spending the weekend in what must be a Trumpist maelstrom: a historical tabletop wargaming convention in Central PA. He reports a predictable amount of "Crooked Hillary" talk (and in fact declined to buy some miniatures of a guy because he wouldn't shut up about it). He also reports near-universal looks of grim, clenched-teeth, silent forbearance from the womenfolk attached to these dudes every time they brought it up.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:43 PM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

Just interviewed the man who was detained. He is a Republican who was holding a Republicans for Trump sign. I'll have details on @KRNV at 11 (link)

LOL. LOL.
posted by yasaman at 7:44 PM on November 5, 2016 [14 favorites]

@BenMargiott
Just interviewed the man who was detained. He is a Republican who was holding a Republicans for Trump sign. I'll have details on @KRNV at 11 [real but deleted]

@BenMargiott
CORRECTION: The man who was detained was holding a Republicans AGAINST trump sign. I apologize for the mistake.

this election........
posted by acidic at 7:46 PM on November 5, 2016 [21 favorites]

Wait, edit to that tweet I just posted: CORRECTION: The man who was detained was holding a Republicans AGAINST trump sign. I apologize for the mistake.
posted by yasaman at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just interviewed the man who was detained. He is a Republican who was holding a Republicans for Trump sign. I'll have details on @KRNV at 11 (link)

ha ha, now I can't stop laughing
posted by Jalliah at 7:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Ben Margiott deleted that tweet and corrected it: "CORRECTION: The man who was detained was holding a Republicans AGAINST trump sign. I apologize for the mistake."

So he must have concealed the sign under his clothes to get it past the security check -- which, I found out today, also prohibits dixieflags but not dixieflag clothing -- and when he reached down to unveil it, everyone went batshit.
posted by holgate at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Awwww booo I was so siked. still funny though.
posted by Potomac Avenue at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2016

And now I stopped laughing....boo
posted by Jalliah at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2016

Credit where due. The US Secret Service is 100% taking no chances.
posted by mikelieman at 7:48 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Maggie Hassan

Done here as well.

It's been said but not by me yet: huge gratitude to those of you canvassing and calling and volunteering. I'm so thankful for your work and reports. I know I speak for many.
posted by spitbull at 7:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Report from the get out the vote concert in Philadelphia tonight:

My wife and I had to stand in line for over an hour and a half before we got in. We were quite concerned that the venue would fill up but it turned out there was room to spare at the top of the lawn. A lot of people left the line during that hour and a half wait thinking they wouldn't get in. It is a shame that they missed out.

I don't understand the logistics of events like this but something clearly didn't work right. The line hardly moved for long stretchs of time and then we covered a quarter mile in a mad rush as the event was starting. Even then we still missed a number of speakers, only coming in catch the last part of Katie McGinty's speech.

As an aside, I was not at all impressed by McGinty. I hope she wins but I don't think she is a strong candidate. Then again, she is running against Pat Toomey.

Shonda Rimes introduced Clinton to the great pleasure of the crowd. Hillary understandably sounded a bit hoarse but still got everyone fired up. She mainly focused on the importance of this particular and getting everyone out to vote.

Katy Perry put on a good performance as well.

All in all, we thought that it was an evening well spent.
posted by nolnacs at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

Facts don't matter. Trump will claim it was an assassination attempt the rest of the way. Hell, there might be a NYT headline saying the same thing.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Re: the Lisa Bloom video, it is Lisa Boyne speaking (not the child-rape client who dropped the suit) telling her story as reported two weeks ago, (Trump is a crude, boorish, misogynist who enjoys sycophantic men bullying women for his amusement) because she wants women to be able to tell their stories without being bullied or threatened "and that's what Donald Trump does". 5m long video.

There's nothing right about his campaign. It starts awful and only gets worse. A year we've had to put up with this . . . grotesque affront to . . ugh. Logic? Common decency? A majority of the population on the planet?
posted by petebest at 7:51 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

This whole mindset is so insane. Corporations are people. Money is speech. Republicans against Trump are guns. Such Orwell.
posted by riverlife at 7:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Facts don't matter. Trump will claim it was an assassination attempt the rest of the way. Hell, there might be a NYT headline saying the same thing.

Probably true. In his mind the narrative is set. Plus it makes him feel important. He likes anything that makes him feel important.
posted by Jalliah at 7:52 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Example #17,394 why Twitter is the WORST resource for breaking news, even when used by reliable sources...
@BenMargiott
Just interviewed the man who was detained. He is a Republican who was holding a Republicans for Trump sign. I'll have details on @KRNV at 11 [real but deleted]
@BenMargiott
CORRECTION: The man who was detained was holding a Republicans AGAINST trump sign. I apologize for the mistake.

But the "assassination attempt" claim may have some validity; seeing a "Republicans AGAINST Trump" sign at a rally could make his swollen head go all Scanners eplodey...
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:55 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

And since Infowars already slapped it on their home page, no way it doesn't become a "Clinton cover-up" among those true believers by tomorrow.
posted by holgate at 7:57 PM on November 5, 2016

Hey but the good thing is there could be some good headlines like "Trump insists he was almost assassinated...by Republican man brandishing a sign'.

I'm okay with headlines that make him sound like an idiot.
posted by Jalliah at 7:57 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

"Hold the door!" George R.R. Martin surprised volunteers in Santa Fe today to encourage early voting.

It occurred to me that GRRM's involvement means that someone we like is going to die tragically and unexpectedly, but that's already happened, what, 53 times this year?
posted by Pater Aletheias at 7:58 PM on November 5, 2016 [15 favorites]

Re: the mythical Rick Wilson / Lisa Mair two oppo stories.

Lisa explained (over her Twitter, of course) last night that one of them may have been / have been similar to the National Enquirer Trump affair story they buried for Trump ("This same thing may be exactly what's happened w one of two bad Trump stories I mentioned, BTW. Of course, it's quite possible that the really damaging thing I was alluding to happened with McDougal. I don't know her......what we dug up came from a source w close ties to Trumpworld, and an alleged admission made by a very key figure who works for Trump. Worth noting, ahem, that we also did notify people at ABC back in the primary of what we had come to believe was true. And it looks like McDougal AND Clifford did indeed speak to ABC. Too bad McDougal cut a contract with National Enquirer, Clifford went quiet.").

Lisa also linked to a "quasi-naked" modeling "shot of [Melania] faux-kissing a girl" that happened during one of the illegal modeling shoots, so perhaps that was the other one.

Thanks for nothing Lisa!

As for Wilson, this very long string of tweets involving Wilson and multiple frustrated followers suggest he also has NUTHIN. They seem to think there was some kind of taped evidence involving Donald Trump and an abortion, which Wilson neither confirms nor denies. (Perhaps this is the "really damaging thing" Mair was alluding to also.) Someone in the thread links to this blog entry involving "multiple anonymous sources" but nothing legit. Like Mair, he blames the media for not going after whatever tip he gave then. Fittingly, this conversation ends "yall got played by a bitter hack who will never work again."

Thanks for nothing Rick!
posted by sallybrown at 8:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

yes, but from GRRM, it should be tragically, unexpectedly AND VIOLENTLY.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:00 PM on November 5, 2016

And since Infowars already slapped it on their home page, no way it doesn't become a "Clinton cover-up" among those true believers by tomorrow.

Oh well. They can just add it to the list. Right under the most recent "Hillary is a Satan worshiper and Dems drink blood' one.
posted by Jalliah at 8:01 PM on November 5, 2016

the man who was detained. He is a Republican

I understand why there aren't more Bob Roberts references, but I think we all knew this part would pan out.

. Huh. I forgot Alan Rickman was in - waaaitaminit! 2016!!!!!
posted by petebest at 8:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

So, given that Bateman Jr and Trump's social -media director are passing the Reno thing off as an assassination attempt, I assume the next step will be for Trump to claim during his next rally that he dodged a bullet, and for his sycophants then to yell that the dishonest media is covering up an assassination attempt by reporting that it wasn't.

I saw the video and I'm pretty sure that what I saw was that Hillary Clinton hobbled in, coughing, carrying a B83 thermonuclear bomb that Obama must have given her over her shoulder. After screaming her allegiance to ISIS, she threw the bomb at him -- very weakly mind you -- but before it could go off Trump rushed over to it and swallowed it whole in order to shield the crowd with his flawless and mighty flesh. There was a muffled thud and he burped a little glowy burp.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:05 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

They said they had nothing to do today because volunteer turnout was 90% and they had planned for 50%.

Political activism can be pretty dispiriting if you wait for someone to tell you what to do... If you ever find yourself in that situation, or roped into something stupid, you can always print out some pamphlets and go talk to people in an area with a lot of foot traffic.
posted by Coventry at 8:06 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump Jr retweeted an image "stop Democrat violence."

I know 2016 is a weird year, but I'm still pretty sure the Secret Service doesn't just promptly let you go if what you did qualifies in the slightest way as an assassination attempt on someone they protect.
posted by zachlipton at 8:07 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

OKAY. I have once again reached the bottom of the thread ... but my eyeballs are shaking so it's time to stop again for a while.

As for this Twitter thing I don't get it. I don't think it needs explanation because I think in the end it doesn't matter to me if I get it. But it's made me realize that my perspective on all this is so incoherent I'm out of coherents.

See you guys Wednesday. Go Vote if you can. Lots riding on it.
posted by tilde at 8:08 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh dear lord. I went to The_Donald. Yep it's full on the left tried to assassinate Donald and look at how he stood strong!!!! And now EVERYONE is trying to cover it up. I did quick scan through comments (I can only stand so much) and any 'I heard there wasn't a gun' "Guys there was no gun" is just ignored or shouted down because the people want it to be true so bad that it just is...cause they say so.
They're also screaming mad that it's not headline news and that this major historical event is not being covered and omg the sky is falling, help us all, everything is horrible argle bargle..blurg, blah, someone tried to kill Daddy and no one cares...oh and Hillary is evil SHE DID IT.
posted by Jalliah at 8:11 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Nevada D's seem to be much happier tonight than they were earlier in the week. Not many folks picking up tonight BUT everyone I've talked to has been nice and happy sounding.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 8:12 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I found out something pretty remarkable today. I found out in the nearby small town, a town which is so Republican that it's very rare for anyone to run on any other party in the county, in this town the school district's slogan this year is "We are better, stronger together." So the town has signs all over saying "Stronger Together."

Either someone is really upset that the slogan they picked first became the Democratic candidate's slogan, or there's a Democratic mole somewhere in the district administration feeling VERY smug.
posted by threeturtles at 8:16 PM on November 5, 2016 [21 favorites]

Mrs. CHT gave Hassan a contribution via Act Blue after I mentioned her situation. Thx for the heads-up.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:17 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Speaking of political activism, if you're anywhere near Manchester, NH tomorrow, these folks will be there getting out the vote. They are not Democrats, they are mostly focused on state-level progressive candidates and defeating the Republicans. But defeating the Republicans is functionally equivalent to getting Clinton and Hassan elected. You can go canvas with them, then go to the Manchester Clinton rally and watch James Taylor there in the evening!
posted by Coventry at 8:18 PM on November 5, 2016

Paul Lewis: Austin told me he was punched, kicked. Someone grabbed his testicles and he his neck was in a chokehold. He said he feared for his life.

Thankfully nobody (except the Secret Service) was armed...
posted by dinty_moore at 8:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

As for this Twitter thing I don't get it. I don't think it needs explanation because I think in the end it doesn't matter to me if I get it. But it's made me realize that my perspective on all this is so incoherent I'm out of coherents.

I'll explain it anyway, in the interest of preserving coherents.

All along, as his party has become increasingly a dumpster fire, Paul Ryan's social media people have been tweeting out these inane #BetterWay tweets, generally just some calm bit of Republican orthodoxy like "Retweet if you agree ↦ You should be able to buy health insurance across state lines. #BetterWay" or "#Republicans will protect the homeland, keep terrorists out of America and secure our borders. #BetterWay." Basically, just inane platitudes that sound like they come from a Mitt Romney stump speech. They give the appearance that Ryan is unaware of the flames that are burning all around him.

So last night, the AP put out a story confirming that Melania Trump worked in the US while on a tourist visa. The next day, Paul Ryan tweets, "As a nation of laws, we must insist that everyone come here legally and maintain legal status. #BetterWay"

On Twitter, subtweeting is when you talk about someone "behind their back" by saying something about them, typically something negative or mocking, but don't @-mention them so they don't directly see it in their notifications. Here, fictional Trump is accusing fictional Ryan of subtweeting Melania by tweeting about immigrants needing to follow the law the day after an article indicated she did not do so.

I wish I didn't know any of the above things, but hey, 2016.
posted by zachlipton at 8:22 PM on November 5, 2016 [13 favorites]

djw's post at the Lawyers, Guns, & Money blog on an afternoon of canvassing:

Only a few people want to take advantage of the captive audience to talk politics, but one woman, just getting home from a double shift as I arrived to her house, was pure gold. I’m going to reconstruct my favorite part of her rant as faithfully as possible, but I’m not doing it justice–it was just a marvelous, angry, hilarious rant. The gist of it:
Look, I get it, you white people* had a hard time with Obama being president so you need a racist president. I get it. I don’t like it but I get it. But what I don’t get is why you needed a racist who is so goddamn crazy and stupid! Couldn’t you find a racist who could actually know how to run the damn government? I mean, I wouldn’t vote for him–he’d still be bad for people like me–but at least he’d know what he’s doing? What good does it do the damn white people when Trump shits the bed? It’s not like there’s some other special country they move to when he takes this country down. We get a black president and he does a pretty good job, and your response is murder-suicide? You white people need to get smarter about how you do this racism thing.
*she interjected caveats about how her use of “you white people” should not be construed to include people such as myself and Obama/Clinton supporters generally, so this didn’t come off as hostile or accusatory as the words on the page might make it appear.

/bitter laughter

I can't wait for this election season to end. Volunteers called me twice today--looks like they have outdated info for me in PA, though I live now in IL--so I thanked them & said I voted early for Hillary, and also noted that I've been e-mailing/calling my parents regularly to make sure they vote for Hillary (& McGinty, etc.) since they live in PA. They don't keep up with the news much and so don't fully grok the sheer batshit nature of this election, but if nothing else the crazed urgency in my communications (utterly unlike 2012 or 2008) is getting the point across.

I'm going to be crying buckets on Tuesday, and it will be either from despair or joyous catharsis. I hope for the latter.
posted by ilicet at 8:23 PM on November 5, 2016 [80 favorites]

It's okay to criticize your model, but you shouldn't start tweaking it mid-game.

I'm not sure that's true. I mean, if you are a scientist testing statistical models, then yes, you should create a model and then let it run.

But if your goal is to accurately predict the results of the election, then surely you SHOULD make changes based on actual events. If there's evidence that some group of voters isn't being included in polls, then that should be taken into account, right? Or if there's evidence that more certainty exists for some reason (say one of the candidates does something INCREDIBLY STUPID and after that all polling becomes fairly stable) then your model should probably reflect that new reality rather than continue to act like there's a lot of uncertainty out there.

I mean, if we're going to give what statisticians say as much weight as we do, then I think their goal should be running experiments, but rather being accurate. Nate Silver got as much attention as he did because he was incredibly accurate and predicting exact results. So people are now treating his predictions as The Word of Science when even he seems to be telling people not to rely on his model.

But then again I came VERY close to failing statistics and had a terrible prof, so you probably shouldn't listen to me.
posted by threeturtles at 8:26 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

when he reached down to unveil it, everyone went batshit

That's happened before.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

In the "Trump is rushed off the stage" clip, who were the... soldiers? In brown camo? And helmets? I don't like that direction, whoever it was.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:27 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Beyonce's Pantsuit
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:28 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

So can someone explain the Pantsuit Nation thing? I got added today, as did pretty much everyone working at my staging location. Is it some new thing that just got started, or did it just go viral today?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:31 PM on November 5, 2016

Pantsuit Nation has been around for a while. It's super-duper positive and open, which is great but causes it to be somewhat snarked at by the meaner seeekret FB groups. Anyone can add anyone, which is why it's growing at a tremendous rate.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:34 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Couldn’t you find a racist who could actually know how to run the damn government? What good does it do the damn white people when Trump shits the bed?
To me, the only potential upside of a President Trump is the fact that he is SO incompetent that he is likely to hurt "his people" as much (or maybe even more) as the people he wants to hurt. MALAC: Make America Like Atlantic City.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:34 PM on November 5, 2016

I don't know how long the group has been there. I got added earlier in the week by a friend and the group was just called something like "National Pantsuit Day is November 8" intended as a "wear a pantsuit on election day" thing. I don't think it was anywhere near a million people. It was only the last day or so it seems to have exploded. I mean it's gone up over 20% since I started checking its size this morning.
posted by R343L at 8:36 PM on November 5, 2016

I can't think of a more apt comparison. For a man who has been peddling his "I alone" tough guy facade for over a year, he looked extremely cowardly up there. For a split second the little man with tiny hands behind the curtain was exposed. And now they're trying to hawk it as an assassination attempt to bolster his image in the hopes of some pity votes.

Trump was a cravenly milksop/namby-pamby/yellow-belly/candy-ass/milquetoast tonight. And the Secret Service grabbed him by his own lack of spine.
posted by guiseroom at 8:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

In the "Trump is rushed off the stage" clip, who were the... soldiers? In brown camo? And helmets? I don't like that direction, whoever it was.

Secret Service counter assault team, probably augmented by the local SWAT team. They're always on hand for the President (and at this point I assume both candidates), but you're not usually supposed to see them.

There's actually a much better case to be made for them than use of military hardware in a random no-knock raid of a weed grow house, which also happens every single day.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:37 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

I got added earlier in the week by a friend and the group was just called something like "National Pantsuit Day is November 8" intended as a "wear a pantsuit on election day" thing. I don't think it was anywhere near a million people. It was only the last day or so it seems to have exploded.

And these are 2 different groups. National Pantsuit Day is a FB "Community" and a campaign with a website, etc. I think that actually Pantsuit Nation - which is an FB "Secret Group" which can't be searched and to which you must be invited by a member, started out with a similar name, but changed it when the National Pantsuit Day group asked them to disambiguate, but since then they've been growing like mad.
posted by Miko at 8:42 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

I've been in Pantsuit Nation for a while. I'm a Seven Sisters alum and we seem to have been pretty highly represented in the early days. It's a really nice place. I read it before I go to bed for positive stories and so I don't get too depressed.
posted by frumiousb at 8:47 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

Show me the last couple of polls where Clinton was more than 5 points ahead of Trump. Ok, now square that with HuffPo showing a 5 point lead.

You know you can check which polls the HuffPo Pollster is using? NBC/SurveyMonkey 51/44 to Clinton, ABC News 53/41.

Ok, but why are we even TALKING about national polls or national percentages? A national poll has NOTHING to do with how we elect the president, which is by the electoral college. The only thing that matters at this point is state predictions. The best a national poll can tell us is a general sort-of-kind-of sense of how the nation is feeling, but not who is going to win.

Clinton has a fairly significant lead on probability of winning the election because she has a lot of states with lots of points locked up for her. Even if one state goes for Trump instead of her, she has a lot of other ways to get to 270. Trump doesn't. That means she has a higher probability overall. National popular vote has nothing to do with it.
posted by threeturtles at 8:48 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Clinton has a fairly significant lead on probability of winning the election because she has a lot of states with lots of points locked up for her.

Not points. Not a game.
posted by dersins at 8:49 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Another way of saying it is Trump has to win ALL the tossup states and swing states. Clinton only needs some of them, and is flexible in which ones. The likelihood of her winning actually is reflecting the low likelihood of Trump winning all the states he would need to get to 270.
posted by threeturtles at 8:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

I added about 6 people to Pantsuit Nation tonight, then got an automated FB message saying "you've been blocked from using this feature for going too fast." WTF? [I mean, I know it's in theory a bot-protection algorithm, but really...]
posted by Miko at 8:51 PM on November 5, 2016

Oh yeah, meant to add, Pantsuit Nation was created by a Yale grad, and seems to have picked up a ton of traction early on in the network of Eastern liberal-arts-school alums. Which makes a lot of sense when you think about it, and also accounts for a lot of its rapid spread, because these networks are big and wide but also drill down through personal roots into all sorts of local geographies in every state.
posted by Miko at 8:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Sorry for the posting burst but...

Thing is I'm sure a lot of them have been wide open about being Team Hillary from early on

I've been heartened by how many of my friends are on the FB group who I DIDN'T invite because I only invited the people I knew were enthusiastic Clinton supporters. All three of them. But I have lots of friends on that group, liking and commenting when they DON'T on their own timelines. It makes me feel a lot better about my friends and the ringing silence I was getting for so much of this campaign.

I think for many of them it was an issue of professionalism since a lot of them work at universities or fields where they have some conservative colleagues they didn't want to break ties with. Which makes me wonder if this is something women have to be much more careful about than men, if they are judged much more harshly for expressing personal/political views. (If I were still employed, I wouldn't even HAVE a facebook, at least not under my real name.)
posted by threeturtles at 8:56 PM on November 5, 2016 [16 favorites]

Not points. Not a game.

I hate to be the wet blanket, but boy howdy...

There are paid professionals working this game, angling for percentage points. This is how they think and operate. It would benefit us to think about this and operate upon these observations like they do, if for no other reason than to out-maneuver the most loathsome of them.
posted by Slap*Happy at 8:57 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

I haven't commented significantly in any of the election threads but I've read every single one (OH GOD WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME) but I want to chime in with my gratitude for being a place of sanity! Iowa had been "leaning Republican" in the PEC forecast for a while, so this thread helped reduce my personal JCPL.

Count me as another one of those introverts who started making campaign phone calls on Friday night and went out canvassing today, all thanks to this thread.

Iowa is now gray in the PEC forecast. Come on, Iowa. Don't let me down!
posted by nicodine at 8:57 PM on November 5, 2016 [40 favorites]

The Lisa Boyne video honestly upsets me more than the other stories in a lot of ways. She's very believable, and the story she tells isn't terribly sensational. She comes across like a pretty ordinary woman who thinks it's gross that a guy who can do something like that can bully other women and literally run for president. And here's the thing-- the night she describes is probably just another night for Donald Trump. He literally probably can't even remember it. But by coming forward about it, her life will be changed forever. For Trump, a night casually rating, degrading and bullying women was just par for the course. And we've got him running for president. Even if he loses, I may never look at my old friends and family the same way again. They're saying horrible things like "everybody does it" and "boys will be boys" and I think: who the f*ck are these people? I often reflect that I am too permissive in the behaviour I accept from men, but I would never have someone like this in my life. This isn't something everybody does!

I know I'm preaching to the converted here, but this normalisation of abuse and evil is starting to eat away my bones.
posted by frumiousb at 9:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [52 favorites]

The JCPL secret-sauce-black-box-methodology is panic

Somebody unscrew the poles
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:01 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Check out this map (twitter) - that sea of red still gives us Madame President.

That's because people, not dirt, is what votes. All that red west of the Mississippi except Texas? Fewer people than just California.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 9:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Clinton +5 in latest ABC/WAPO tracker
posted by guiseroom at 9:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Is this somehow originating with Clinton's social media team or is it really an organic "secret women for Hillary" group?

Originally the group was called National Pantsuit Day on November 8th. They changed the name once it got really huge and people were calling for it lasting longer.

And I believe it really was organic. There are some other secret Clinton groups out there that are no where near as large and have strictly limited their members. PN was accused last week of being full of fake accounts because it was impossible for a group to grow that fast. It was reported to FB and membership may have been capped at one point?

One person posted last weekend-ish that she met Hillary at an event and told her about the group and at that point Hillary hadn't heard of it, but she was thrilled. I saw someone else post yesterday that her staff is now reading to Hillary from the group occasionally during breaks, but I don't know how that was sourced.

I was super thrilled to be invited Thursday before last by a friend who I don't even know very well and who hasn't posted ANY political stuff at all. But I have been so publically loud-mouthed this whole cycle that she knew to add me.
posted by threeturtles at 9:03 PM on November 5, 2016 [11 favorites]

I submitted an election prediction post in MetaTalk so it should pop up by tomorrow, for those who want to make predictions.

(I went over it so many times to make sure I got nothing wrong, and I just realized I forgot to make any mention of Egg or a possible third party EV win...sorry my McMuFinn!)

Only 2 more days...and then Election Day is upon us! I almost can't believe it...
posted by sallybrown at 9:04 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Yeah, a different group I'm in caps the number of people in it. I imagine others could have gone viral if they didn't cap.
posted by R343L at 9:05 PM on November 5, 2016

Election Prediction post is live in meta.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 9:13 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

By "points" I and others were referring to percentage points, which is different from votes. Don't know another way to say that. It has nothing to do with sports.
posted by threeturtles at 9:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

PEC's overall prediction seems odd if you look at their numbers on a state-by-state basis. They predict Clinton with a 69% chance in New Hampshire, 63% in North Carolina, 74% in Florida, and 63% in Nevada -- states which, if Clinton lost all four, would probably mean losing the election. Now, she's ahead in their model in all of them, so it's reasonable to predict a good chance of Clinton's success, but even if those numbers are considered to be completely uncorrelated and there is no possibility of error, you still get about 1.1% chance of losing all four, so shouldn't their number be below 99%? And if they are correlated, even slightly, or there is a chance of polling error, shouldn't it be less than that?

So I think part of the answer to your first question is that you need to look at the distribution over all states and all electoral college vote totals: even if Clinton lost all four, she has a non-zero chance in other swing states.

And the second part is that those per-state numbers are the "right now" snapshot, and in that snapshot it's true PEC doesn't account for state-to-state correlation. But the 99% number comes from estimating the likely amount of drift in the overall national margin over time (like, "Clinton +3%") and converting that back into Electoral Vote totals by looking at how EV totals and the national margin have covaried over time so far. So it does kind of take into account correlation between the states in that sense, because it's taking potential shifts in the trend at the national level, then working backwards to get predicted EV totals.

The main criticism of the model is that in how much drift you assume is plausible; the race has been pretty stable this year compared even to 2008, but it's also possible stronger-than-normal third party support (Johnson ~5%, Stein ~3%) means drift will be a little higher. Still, we're quite close to the end and drift should matter less and less in the last few days.

I still like the explicit hierarchical model approach of Kremp the best (note URL change); it's now reporting a Clinton win at 87%.
posted by en forme de poire at 9:18 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

This election is over for me... but then again. It never was about me.

I am a single, white, male. Approaching middle age... much to my chagrin.

Alternatively educated, but educated nevertheless.

Though NM is a blue state, I voted a straight D ticket and a majority of them women... all the damn way down.

Bonds for libraries, public housing, and infrastructure improvements?

You're gods damned right.

At my EV voting location, a quick vote tabulator review showed ~12,000 votes cast for just that site. This was around 12:30 Mountain time. Not bad for little ol' Albuquerque.

I'm doing my damnedest to keep this state Blue.

Hard Blue.
posted by PROD_TPSL at 9:20 PM on November 5, 2016 [53 favorites]

T.D. Strange: Secret Service counter assault team, probably augmented by the local SWAT team.

I was curious so I looked into this more - I don't think any Secret Service counter assault team members. I suspect those are reserved for the President and the White House, and everyone in armor at these events are local law enforcement who reinforce the Secret Service agents in suits. In this photo you can see a patch on the closest officer which matches this file photo of the Reno SWAT team. So, yeah, another example of the militarization of our local police.
posted by bluecore at 9:23 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

Maggie Hassan
Done!
posted by annsunny at 9:33 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Though I donated through Emily's List, because I'm already on their mailing list.
posted by annsunny at 9:34 PM on November 5, 2016

everyone in armor at these events are local law enforcement who reinforce the Secret Service agents in suits

That makes sense. They'd outsource the CAT duties to the local SWAT team for the canidates. Also hard to deploy the real CAT in two places with the brutal final schedules.

I'm still much less concerned about this use case than most, if you have a SWAT team, this is what it should be used for, protecting legitimate national security concerns when they are present locally. Not no-knock raiding a stash house at 4am that may have the perp's baby in it, or may be the complete wrong address. Or even lesser offenses.

The warrior cop culture is fucked up and a real problem, but I don't see this as the typical context.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:36 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

This is interesting from Nate Cohn: Less regular voters are steadily representing a larger and larger share of N.C. early voters (twitter with chart)

And this - VA: an amazing 16% of Prince William's absentee votes were cast on the final day vs. 10% elsewhere, consistent w/ last-minute Latino surge. (twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 9:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

Regarding Senate races to donate to: Elizabeth Warren's shortlist in a recent email seemed like as good a place as any to start, so I followed it. Candidates included Deborah Ross, Maggie Hassan, Russ Feingold, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Jason Kander.

I've not seen any BLM yard signs in Chicago. :( Is there some secret West Coast facebook group we have to join to get them?

Reporting from Chicago: Only in the last week did Clinton/Kaine signs start outnumbering Black Lives Matter signs on my bike commute (Edgewater, Rogers Park, & Evanston). Your neighborhood may vary, but they are definitely here!
posted by ubersturm at 9:43 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Here's a nice calming article from The Daily Beast, about how the mechanics of her ground game are really great.
posted by annsunny at 9:43 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Saw my first Gary Johnson sign out in the wild today. It's in my neighborhood, a block I walk down several times a week, so it's definitely new. Also, it was stuck in a kind of median strip, directly in front of a yard--belonging to an insurance office--planted with Clinton/Kaine, Kirkpatrick, and Penzone signs, so my guess is a bit of last-minute guerrilla campaigning.

But hey, it's out there.
posted by Superplin at 9:51 PM on November 5, 2016

Two days and a wake up.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

Saw my first Gary Johnson sign out in the wild today.

My upstairs neighbor has a Johnson/Weld sign in his window (no surprise, but from the booming noises, as far as I can tell he plays xbox all day when he's not at law school), which motivated me to buy my very first campaign sign a few weeks ago. Our Clinton/Kaine sign is, I think, more prominently displayed and closer to people's eyeline, so she's winning this battle, too.
posted by dis_integration at 9:55 PM on November 5, 2016 [8 favorites]

I've been making calls for MeFites United. Tonight there was an angry shouty Republican guy instead of the woman I'd expected to speak with, and I hung up mid-rant (after thanking him for his time, I'm not a monster).
posted by salix at 9:57 PM on November 5, 2016 [19 favorites]

Add this to Trump's endorsement column:

North Korea has backed presumptive U.S. Republican nominee Donald Trump, with a propaganda website praising him as "a prescient presidential candidate" who can liberate Americans living under daily fear of nuclear attack by the North.

A column carried on Tuesday by DPRK Today, one of the reclusive and dynastic state's mouthpieces, described Trump as a "wise politician" and the right choice for U.S. voters in the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.

It described his most likely Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, as "thick-headed Hillary" over her proposal to apply the Iran model of wide sanctions to resolve the nuclear weapons issue on the Korean peninsula.

posted by sallybrown at 9:58 PM on November 5, 2016

I've been making calls for MeFites United. Tonight there was an angry shouty Republican guy instead of the woman I'd expected to speak with, and I hung up mid-rant (after thanking him for his time, I'm not a monster).

How many times did he say "Emails" and "Benghazi"?
posted by dis_integration at 9:59 PM on November 5, 2016

Add this to Trump's endorsement column:

(this is from June! sorry)
posted by sallybrown at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2016

Ms. Pie and I just donated to Maggie Hassan's campaign (for the second time in as many months). Thanks for the heads-up earlier!
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:00 PM on November 5, 2016 [4 favorites]

Black lives matter... yard signs?
There is a young white homeless woman in Berkeley who I have seen for some years hanging out downtown reading and writing poetry and mostly keeping way way way to herself who has been posting this Vote Black flyer around town.
posted by gubenuj at 10:08 PM on November 5, 2016 [6 favorites]

as far as I can tell he plays xbox all day when he's not at law school

I think if your upstairs neighbor tried really hard he could be 0.3-0.5% more Libertarian
posted by en forme de poire at 10:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [23 favorites]

Another Hassan contribution from us. Thanks for mentioning it, duffell.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

the "sign assassin" speaks (that was fast!): Trump protester: I was beaten for holding a 'Republicans against Trump' sign

The man, who identified himself as Austyn Crites, 33, from Reno, told the Guardian he was holding the sign at a rally when Trump supporters wrestled him to the ground.

He said he was kicked, punched and choked, and feared for his life when the crowd turned on him at the gathering in Reno, Nevada.

Crites cited Trump’s treatment of Mexicans, Muslims and women as the reason he decided to protest again Trump, who he described as “a textbook version of a dictator and a fascist”. . .

Although he described himself as a Republican and fiscal conservative, Crites said he had canvassed “for a few hours” with the Clinton campaign in Nevada because he wanted to do all he could to prevent a Trump presidency

He said he was not fully supportive of Clinton but believed she was the only candidate who could stop Trump from reaching the White House.

Crites said he had not formal connection to the Clinton campaign and decided to attend the rally on his own volition.

“Evan [Evan] McMullin is someone I also support,” he said of the independent conservative standing for president on many states, and added that he backed Trump’s Republican opponents during the primaries. “John Kasich, for example, was a great candidate.”

Crites said he felt Trump supporters were well-meaning but simply misguided by Trump’s demagoguery. “He’s fascist, he’s a dictator,” he said of the Republican nominee, saying such leaders turn normal people “into animals”.

While he was surprised at what occurred at the rally, Crites he said he did not blame the crowd for his treatment. “I like these people,” he said. “These are my fellow Americans. I love these people. I understand that they came here because they’re patriotic, they want to do good for their country.”

He added: “The people who attached me – I’m not blaming them. I’m blaming Donald Trump’s hate rhetoric.”

“My heart still aches for what this nation could potentially do by electing him,” he added. “That hurts me much more than any of this violence.”

“The fact that I got beat up today, that’s just showing what he’s doing to his crowds. But I just want people to understand I’m going to be OK, but now what’s more important is if the country going to be OK? So do your part and vote.”

The experience sounds terrifying.
posted by sallybrown at 10:14 PM on November 5, 2016 [106 favorites]

obliquity of the ecliptic: "Also, all the Canadians around me are a bit snobby when it comes to US politics and are definitely not interested in hearing me go on about it since it "doesn't affect them.""

Wow! I'm a Canadian living in Canada and most of the people i know; who aren't Justin's both not ready and an evil mastermind; have been scared shitless that the orange Dorito would win.
posted by Mitheral at 10:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

I haven't seen this posted yet (at least in this thread) but Netflix has a mockumentary called "Undecided: The Movie" which provides a nice change of pace from all the election craziness.

In it, two "undecided" voters try to pick which candidate they will support as part of a reality show and in the course of their hilarious adventures, reveal how easily both political campaigns and the media can be manipulated.
posted by Jaybo at 10:19 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump campaign and Republicans paid $1.8m to companies mired in voter fraud claims (Guardian)
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:24 PM on November 5, 2016 [17 favorites]

Okay, now the schedules are looking like a poker table with raises and re-raises. Hillary added a midnight rally in Raleigh after the big Philly event, while Trump is going to Grand Rapids after NH. Enjoy the road closures, Grand Rapids.

Trump has ten rallies in the next two days. He's going to get messy and crazy (compared to the current messy-crazy) and Ted Nugent will help him get there.
posted by holgate at 10:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Sigh. The last drunken, enraged Saturday night before the election...

What will we all do on Thursday, (barring taking to the streets should the unthinkable happen), when the victory thread has died out...
posted by Windopaene at 10:50 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

This is interesting: Oklahoma saw a 31.7-percent increase in early voter turnout from the 2012 election, as 148,458 voters turned up at local polling stations over the three-day period. That's more than 35,000 more voters than there were in the 2012 election, and nearly a 30-percent increase from numbers in the 2008 election.

The total number of Presidential election votes in OK in 2012 was 1,334,872. So that 35,000 extra early votes is more than 2.6% of their total election votes from last time.
posted by sallybrown at 10:53 PM on November 5, 2016 [3 favorites]

Christ, the Evan McMullin supporter beaten at the Trump rally strikes home and could have been me. I was offered space and close access at a Trump rally but my husband thought it would be too risky considering how I'd already seen things ramp up.
posted by corb at 10:54 PM on November 5, 2016 [76 favorites]

Are you going for McMuffin, corb? Given that you live in an obscenely safe D state.
posted by Talez at 10:57 PM on November 5, 2016

A second delegate from Washington state says he may not cast his vote for Clinton even though she's going to win the state. Heck of a job, Washington!

I should post my prediction as 268-268 with 2 votes for Bernie Sanders. I'm sure if that happened it would send exactly the message they intend and totally not whip half the country into a blinding rage at pseudo-progressives like the delegates in question.
posted by Justinian at 11:02 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

Imma do it. Imma post that as my prediction.
posted by Justinian at 11:05 PM on November 5, 2016

I almost (I said *almost*) want to read this fanfic:

Trump: I hate illegal immigrants.
Melania: 'I hate cyber bullies'
*look at each other longingly*

(twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 11:09 PM on November 5, 2016 [31 favorites]

Justinian: there's a second threatened faithless elector in Washington?!
posted by R343L at 11:11 PM on November 5, 2016

Yep, Robert Satiacum said already that he definitely will not cast his vote for Clinton while today Bret Chiafalo said he is "considering" not voting for Clinton even if she wins the state. You had onejob, Washington State Democratic Party. One job!
posted by Justinian at 11:15 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

For folks who are curious but don't want to give Alex Jones & Co. any more page views:

This New York Magazine article does a nice job of explaining both (1) The whole, stupid Abramovic/Satanism thing, and (2) The even stupider Comet Ping Pong child trafficking thing.

And maybe all the election craziness has rendered me kind of punch-drunk, but my thoughts are now, basically a combination of:

(A) THIS?? IT'S THE FINAL WEEKEND OF YOUR CAMPAIGN AND THIS IS YOUR OPPO?? YOU CLUELESS FUCKING SPOONS, WHY DID YOU EVEN BOTHER TO DROPPO THIS OPPO??

-and-

(B) OMG, there was a Kickstarter whereby you could get Marina Abramović to stage Spirit Cooking at your house? I want Marina Abramović to stage Spirit Cooking at my house!! And I know that I do not have and never have had 10g to spend on something like that, but still, WHY WAS I NOT INFORMED???

And now I really need to calm down and focus, because all I've been doing for the last hour or so is alternately convulsing with mirth and looking at all the cool shit on Marina Abramović's Twitter stream, and I've got to get some stuff done if I'm going to have time to phone bank tomorrow and Monday. And hell, maybe that actually is Trumpland's strategy: To make people Hillary's camp laugh so fucking hard in the last few days that they forget to GOTV.
posted by palmcorder_yajna at 11:22 PM on November 5, 2016 [5 favorites]

Trump is going to Grand Rapids

i shall fart in his general direction.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 11:23 PM on November 5, 2016 [7 favorites]

You had onejob, Washington State Democratic Party. One job!

Don't even name the faithless electors. They're almost certainly googling themselves like crazy over this (IYKWIM). Why give them the satisfaction?
posted by dersins at 11:24 PM on November 5, 2016 [12 favorites]

At Trump's next event in Denver, his intro speaker described what happened in Reno as "an attempt of murder" and blamed the press:

I think the hate a lot of the media raised against him caused an attempt of murder against him in Nevada

Again, I'm damn sure the Secret Service doesn't just let you leave after 20 minutes if you've attempted murder against a protectee.

And here's CNN's Noah Gray being assaulted for trying to film what happened in Reno.
posted by zachlipton at 11:30 PM on November 5, 2016 [9 favorites]

If this keeps up, Clinton is only going to earn only 78% of the electoral votes a man would if he won all the same states.
posted by zachlipton at 11:38 PM on November 5, 2016 [76 favorites]

I don't know if this will help anyone, but this is helping me deal with my election anxiety.
posted by R.F.Simpson at 11:43 PM on November 5, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just as a palate cleanser for those who have had their fill of short fingered vulgarians, here is a gentleman with quite long fingers who knows how to use them. (SFW, but if you are a prog rock hater you may not want to click the link.)
posted by TedW at 11:45 PM on November 5, 2016 [1 favorite]

Devonian: "Being the Secret Service body who has to take a bullet for Trump should really have the contractual clause - "Nov 9: Retire on full pay for life"."

You really think Trump doesn't have a lot of sympathizers/supporters in the SS? Especially with how they are shuttling around on his gold plated private jet I bet there are SS members who are falling over themselves to be assigned that duty.

saturday_morning: "Striking photo of the protestor in Reno."

Why the heck is that photo in black and white?

Potomac Avenue: "Iraq war vet compares his gear to the cops in Nevada at that rally from Reno tonight, lols"

The Reno cop is set up for rioters not IEDs.
posted by Mitheral at 11:45 PM on November 5, 2016

Just in case anyone has been on the fence about volunteering for a campaign: We need people. Yes, you can jump in even if you haven't been volunteering so far, even though it's like you're only showing up for the fun exciting part of the campaign, nobody will hold it against you because we 100% need the people. You can come in for these last three days, and you will be welcomed and cheered. The work you'll be asked to do will be vital and necessary work. You may even get a meal out of it, depending on the office. Canvassing goes until 7pm, phonebanking goes until 9, and you can stick around doing data entry as late as you want.

*caveat: definitely true for any downballot races but idk for sure about the Hillary for America offices, someone please confirm or deny.

Everyone working on my local House race is so excited - our most grumpy campaign staffer cracked a smile tonight, at midnight, because we met our goal of 6,000 doors, and the office was still full of volunteers cleaning and preparing for the next day. Our candidate is a total nobody who's never been in politics before, and we're winning it on pure volunteer power.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:17 AM on November 6, 2016 [29 favorites]

Why the heck is that photo in black and white?

Check his feed. A lot of his work is black and white. He does it really, really well.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 12:36 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Can a second faithless elector really be true? Can they not just step aside for someone else if they will not do their job? I confess to not really understanding how this works.
posted by frumiousb at 12:44 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't know either but it might be the only chance left for the Democrats to defeat ourselves!
posted by mmoncur at 12:48 AM on November 6, 2016 [16 favorites]

I am just so completely over people thinking their feelings are more important than the impact of their actions on the lives of everyone around them. If they can't do their job in good conscience, fine. Step aside. I'm sort of hoping that there's some weird thing where electors cannot step aside which explain why these people are not completely selfish.
posted by frumiousb at 12:55 AM on November 6, 2016 [41 favorites]

Welp. God tells Jim Bakker that Trump is going to win
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

whip half the country into a blinding rage at pseudo-progressives like the delegates in question.

There already, thanks. These self-important jackasses need to step down if they can't do the job. Leftists in general are being fucking ridiculous in Washington right now. My nightmare scenario is that Washington flips red because so many (mostly young, white and male) presumed progressive voters have decided this is the time for them to grandstand or "send a message" by writing in stupid shit, abstaining from voting, or JillNotHilling. I go round and round about which decision I feel the most contempt for. Definitely have a stack of folks I can't see taking seriously again after this is all over. I already pulled the plug on a Tinder date this week when she texted me she planned to "vote her conscious" and write in Bernie. I flat-out Can't with Cascadian leftist self-absorption anymore.
posted by EatTheWeek at 1:19 AM on November 6, 2016 [63 favorites]

Re electors; someone upstream posted the WA law, which allows for a majority of the electors to replace an elector who refuses to fulfill her/his duty. Still, these guys...wtf man?

Re Spirit Cooking; omg, I fell into a hole of twitter where there are a ton of people who are convinced that pizza, ice cream and ice cream accessories are somehow code words for a sex ring and orgy porgy at the DNC. I mean, it's nonsensical. I do not understand how anyone could be this deluded. And Wikileaks, jumping in with some serious wtfery, even for JA.

Re Hillary as Demon; I'll be honest with you guys, for the longest time, I thought the whole Alex Jones thing was a shtick. An Andy Kaufman level of put-on. But then I watched that video of him freaking out about our Hillary smelling of sulfur, and I was like "oh shit, he's in need of medical assistance, and people actually listen to this lunatic as though anything he says is true. Oh dear..." )

Re Trump protestor, who did not try to assassinate anyone; this same black hole of idiocy which believes that the Clintons spend their free time ordering up sex slaves with a side of sprinkles, is also reporting "I was there, and I saw the gun!", which reminds of this scene in Monsters Inc.

This fucking year, you guys. This fucking year.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 1:20 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Oh, LA Times. You torment me.

Their tracking poll has Trump ahead with 18-34 year olds and tied with Latinos now. Why do they hurt me so?
posted by Justinian at 1:28 AM on November 6, 2016

Computer forensics defuses FBI's Clinton email 'bombshell' : 95 per cent of the 650,000 messages not relevant (theregister.co.uk)

...

Standard forensic procedures for e-discovery in civil and criminal investigations is to make a certifiable digital copy of all media immediately after getting access, and immediately to analyse and index the contents, including buried metadata and email attachments.

The software utilised in these investigations is used to handling and sifting big data, scaling up to tens of millions of files. The global e-discovery market in software systems and services is now worth an estimated $1bn, with many companies offering sophisticated email analysis add-on systems to spot, map, network and visualise chaining, duplicates, and to provide searchable indexes.

The FBI have long been leaders in this business. As revealed by Edward Snowden, the FBI has been operating the PRISM and other systems for over ten years from its Digital Intercept Technology Unit (DITU) at its sprawling Quantico, Virginia base. The unit annually "ingests" and analyses billions of emails intercepted from US optical fibre cables or passed on by telecommunications operators. The critical part of the system's front end, obviously, is to spot email addresses associated with intelligence targets.

But when it came to the debate, the agency's computer teams had apparently regressed to the digital stone age. The New York Times reported: "The FBI needed custom software to allow them to read Mr Weiner's emails without viewing hers. But building that program took two weeks."

Industry experts used to massive email searches in large civil cases have been scathing about the idea that the FBI's job is difficult with modern tools. Linda Sharp of ZL Technologies said: "In the scheme of e-discovery, 60,000 documents is nothing. We're used to seeing documents in the tens of millions of documents, terabytes of data."

Even if you read every email, "we're not talking about a lot. 60,000 is nothing."

...

posted by sebastienbailard at 1:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [13 favorites]

Welcome to the extra bonus hour of this horrible election, west coast edition.
posted by zachlipton at 1:01 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

sebastienbailard: "The FBI needed custom software to allow them to read Mr Weiner's emails without viewing hers. But building that program took two weeks."

That's what happens when you try use a regexp to solve a problem.
posted by Mitheral at 1:23 AM on November 6, 2016 [33 favorites]

Ooooo! comment from the past!
posted by Mitheral at 1:24 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

the "sign assassin" speaks

Nice appendix to that Dealing with Protesters: Trump vs Obama video posted earlier.
posted by progosk at 1:33 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Trump campaign confirms misunderstanding after commotion at Nevada rally.

Reached for comment, Trump himself clarified: "No weapon. No weapon. No, you're the weapon."

[fake] (I think)
posted by sektah at 1:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Justinian, if you took your relationship with the LA Times to the green, the first and only answer would be:

DTMFA
[jokingly] by [Divide by Banana Error] on -13,543,760,221 [876 favorites +] [!]

posted by maxwelton at 1:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

Huh, so to Trump supporters holding up a protest sign is "attempted murder".

That should give a little taste of what a Trump administration would be like: Criticism is treason. Face-to-face criticism is attempted murder.

Don't think it can happen in the US? Yeah, that's what they were thinking in Turkey as well until a week ago...

I'd really miss MeFi, though.
posted by sour cream at 2:03 AM on November 6, 2016 [32 favorites]

One thing that really pisses me off about this story is that the headline should not be "Trump Rushed Offstage". It should be "Peaceful Protestor Attacked and Beaten at Trump Rally".
posted by kyrademon at 2:05 AM on November 6, 2016 [103 favorites]

"I was there, and I saw the gun!"

Donald Trump and the gun were in the closet making babies and I saw one of the babies and the baby looked at me
posted by en forme de poire at 2:17 AM on November 6, 2016 [62 favorites]

How do we know all the people at the rally aren't 'crisis actors'?
posted by thelonius at 2:26 AM on November 6, 2016

I'm pretty sure that it was unintentional, but -13,543,760,221 in Unix time resolves to a point on 31 January 1927. An interesting set of events that day.
posted by clorox at 2:32 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

I am now losing sleep over this fucking election and some headlines google shot at me about how Nate Silver is leaning in Trump's direction.

UGH.
posted by INFJ at 3:04 AM on November 6, 2016

@daveweigel: By [Sunday] morning the story will be that a werewolf charged Trump and he decapitated him with Excalibur.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:17 AM on November 6, 2016 [20 favorites]

I thought that I was losing sleep because I woke up ridiculously early. Then I remembered that daylight savings time had ended.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

I'm pretty sure that it was unintentional

I am merely the vessel through which the Banana speaks.

You'd think I would run that through the date() to see what it resolved to, but am glad I didn't, as I would have spent an hour trying to find a timestamp which would be perfect. (Note: It wouldn't have been perfect.)
posted by maxwelton at 3:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

Leftists in general are being fucking ridiculous in Washington right now

Right now? As a former Seattleite I can attest they were ridiculous 20 years ago too. Susan Sarandon would be right at home in the PNW.

Remember that what makes the PNW so attractive to hipster leftists is the same thing that draws right wingers there: the unbearable whiteness of privilege.
posted by spitbull at 3:32 AM on November 6, 2016 [38 favorites]

I got an extra hour of sleep. I forgot this time change was the good one.

On Tuesdays we wear pantsuits. SOMe coherents restocked. Thatnks
posted by tilde at 4:07 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

538 : "The polls-plus model, which gives Trump a 36 percent chance, is basically the same one that gave Mitt Romney just a 9 percent chance on the eve of the 2012 election, so it isn’t inherently so cautious. But the still-high number of voters not committed to either Trump or Clinton — about 13 percent of the electorate says it’s undecided or will vote for a third-party candidate, as compared with just 3 percent in the final 2012 polling average — contributes substantially to uncertainty."
posted by jeffburdges at 4:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

So my (conservative) mom and I have been arguing about politics in fraught e-mails (she doesn't like Trump either, but thinks he was nominated by Dems voting in Republican open primaries and RINOs). In her last e-mail she complained that "corrupt" Hillary was the anointed choice of the Democratic party from the beginning and that Democrats were never given any real choice because the Dems "pretended to run an old socialist geeser as her opponent, making her the younger and more moderate 'choice.'"

So I wrote a long e-mail in response to that, trying to explain why the two Democratic candidates did inspire people, and how hard-fought the primary was, and now I want to share it here because it feels good to remember this stuff.

Bernie is only 5 years older than Hillary, and he was HUGELY popular among the younger part of the party. People were genuinely excited about his ideas -- basically taking money and power away from corporations, and giving them back to the institutions that people have democratic control over. Ask your son how fake people's enthusiasm for Bernie was!

Bernie won more primary votes from young people than Clinton and Trump combined.

Bernie engaged heavily with the college student demographic, but while of course student loan debt is a huge problem in some people's lives, a lot of people don't go to college at all...

Hillary engaged with working parents who can't afford childcare, with disabled people who don't have transportation and so can't get jobs, with black people who are maybe afraid of the gangs in their neighborhoods but even MORE afraid of the police in their neighborhoods, with Latino people who are citizens but worried about their family members who are not, with gay people who can still be legally fired for being gay if their employer finds out, with people who are suffering from mental illness and can't afford treatment or find a place to get it if they could afford it. If you actually listen to what she says, rather than what people are saying about her, she is trying to engage people about the most devastating problems in their lives. Each of these groups are minorities, but you'd be surprised how many people they add up to when you put them all together, and add in the people who aren't in these categories but know and love people who are. (And refugees. And trans people. And American Muslims. And, and, and...)

And for a lot of these people, it's hard to even ask for help with these problems because if you reveal these aspects of your identity people will spit on your. Undocumented immigrants are HATED by a lot of people, gay people are HATED, mentally ill people are HATED, and they are all blamed for their own problems. Even people of different races, "Oh, it's just black culture. If parents would raise their children better, they wouldn't all be thugs." No sympathy, just "It's your own fault. You should be better."

Did you watch the Democratic Convention? It was remarkable. No stigmas! People got up on this national stage in front of millions of people and said who they were, and they were not ashamed! I don't think you understand how inspiring that is for SO many people.

And me? I'm a working mother. A WORKING mother. I FREQUENTLY feel shamed for working. But I am proud of the PhD in physics that I earned, and I don't want to quit being a scientist. I love it, and it's part of who I am. So I pay $31k per year for childcare, and even though I probably am in the top 5% of Americans with respect to income, I still feel like it's hard to afford.

And I have two kids with genetic diseases, and they take medicines that can cost upwards of $100k per year EACH, which is not affordable by anyone, really. Before Obamacare, their "pre-existing conditions" would have prevented them from ever getting that medication covered by insurance again if we lost our jobs (and the insurance we had when they were born) or wanted to change jobs, or hit their "lifetime coverage limits" (probably before they were ten years old.) Obamacare is the only reason we can afford to treat this genetic condition and prevent them from getting brain damage. Every time Republicans talk about repealing Obamacare I hear "We don't care if your kids get brain damage." Seriously. That is deeply personal for me. (Also I have these parents who are self employed, and without Obamacare they probably wouldn't be able to get insurance either. And I partially support my mother in law who is disabled and lives on social security, which Republicans want to cut.)

Hillary Clinton is definitely speaking to me. And I LIKE her pragmatic, incrementalist approach to solving problems. (Obamacare is a compromise that actually got enacted, whereas if we'd held out for better, we might still be stuck with the old system... And my kids might have brain damage by now.) Hillary makes promises I believe she can keep, at least if Republicans can grow up enough to stop threatening to filibuster everything, or shut down the government, or default on the debt, or refuse to confirm supreme court justices if they don't get their way (even though the MAJORITY of Americans elected Obama and hopefully Clinton because they wanted a DIFFERENT way.)

The Democrats put up two very popular, very inspiring candidates this year. Bernie, despite being an "old socialist," inspired young people to the point where his picture is probably up in more dorm rooms than any rock star (by promising them health care and student loan debt relief! And saying we need to take back power from corporations!) and Hillary has inspired all the people who feel spit on by our culture, who carry burdens that the rest of society don't want to touch because it treats the people carrying them as lepers. Hillary has inspired ME this year. Just so you know.

posted by OnceUponATime at 4:24 AM on November 6, 2016 [127 favorites]

Latina Hotel Workers Harness Force of Labor and of Politics in Las Vegas (NY Times)

The 57,000-member Culinary Union, which is 56 percent Latino and includes guest room attendants, is a powerful supporter of Nevada Democrats
posted by kingless at 4:25 AM on November 6, 2016 [22 favorites]

The "Australians travel across the world to canvass for Hillary Clinton" thing rubs me a little bit the wrong way. It's one thing if you're a non-citizen who lives here—sure, fine, do whatever the law allows you to do, you obviously have a stake in this. But if you actually live in a different country? It may not be illegal for you to come over here and campaign in our elections, but it seems kinda…inappropriate? A bit weird anyway. Not sure if I'm really on board with that idea. Would Aussies want a bunch of Yanks coming over during one of their elections and trying to throw our weight behind whichever of their candidates we prefer? I dunno.

Australia has a *massive* stake in this election. Aus has been a very, very loyal military ally to the US, to the point where our top politicians have to (correctly) fight for continued involvement overseas when the electorate doesn't want it. Fighting to uphold the strength of the US alliance is the right thing to do for the country even if it's politically unpopular, because Australia has less than 10% of the population of the US and hence can't hope to maintain existing levels of defence on our own. So Trump getting elected is very much not in our national interest - it's only last week that his campaign made clear that he as president would continue to guarantee the security of US allies like Australia. Considering how loyal we've been to the US, at significant cost... that's not really good enough.
posted by iffthen at 4:29 AM on November 6, 2016 [22 favorites]

It's one thing if you're a non-citizen who lives here—sure, fine, do whatever the law allows you to do, you obviously have a stake in this. But if you actually live in a different country? It may not be illegal for you to come over here and campaign in our elections, but it seems kinda…inappropriate?

You would rather back-door sabotage like Putin has been doing?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:37 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

By coincidence, speaking of Australian groups visiting the US, tomorrow I am hosting my institute's annual reception for a group of Aboriginal Australian college students making an annual visit to check out US graduate programs. It's their first night in the US.

I think of all the anthropologists who have hauled off to the Western Desert or NT to study the distinctive cultures of Indigenous Australians over the last century. The tables are turned as these bright Aboriginal students get their chance to observe the strange and primitive power-transfer rituals of the most powerful settler colonial state in the grips of moral paralysis.

They are reportedly very excited to be arriving just in time for the big day.
posted by spitbull at 4:50 AM on November 6, 2016 [64 favorites]

ICYMI: the US election prediction thread is open on MetaTalk. Contest closes at 11:59 PM on Monday, November 7.
posted by Wordshore at 4:56 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Have a blast, spitbull! Aboriginal Australians are probably the gentlest, kindest (and also most-mistreated) cultural group here in Australia. I hope you have a good time with them.
posted by iffthen at 4:57 AM on November 6, 2016

Some coherents restocked.

I'm assuming that's a homonym of coherehce, but I shall start calling the rational, polite, anti-deplorable political contingent 'The Coherents' from now on.

I am a Coherent, I am proud to support Coherency, and I urge my fellow Coherents to renew the fight and take the damn battle to the enemy!
posted by Devonian at 5:04 AM on November 6, 2016 [20 favorites]

And Joe in Australia! Grar! This thread already had plenty existential despair.

Welp. God tells Jim Bakker that Trump is going to win

Have a look at this video on the same show, in which some random dude prophesies that Donald Trump will be president. To quote:

"the Holy Spirit says... this man's word is his bond" (speaking about Trump)

The Holy Spirit has some homework to do.
posted by iffthen at 5:09 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

"the Holy Spirit says... this man's word is his bond" (speaking about Trump)

Game recognize game. Those con artists see a fellow traveler in Trump. The devil you know is better than the one waiting for you in hell, I guess.
posted by dis_integration at 5:12 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

Thanks iffthen. We have hosted this group annually for several years (it's an amazing privately funded effort to get more Aboriginal people into global-league academia and science across many disciplines and professions) and I have met quite a few Indigenous Australians over the years both through this and multiple other connections to Australia, albeit never having been myself (waaay high on my bucket list however, I shall soon, as I have quite a few friends working there, being an anthropologist and all).

Temperamentally I am cautious about generalizing personality types and cultures. Kindness and gentleness are qualities of good people everywhere, but are also affective strategies for survival among genocidally colonized Indigenous people. So I know what you mean, but never forget that a righteous anger often burns within and that modern (and urban, educated, etc) Indigenous people tend to have the same modern cultural and affective repertories as non-Indgenous moderns of their class and generation and social experience (for example, recognizing themselves as having solidarity with other migrant people of color despite very different histories) . That said, I have indeed experienced levels of generosity and kindness myself amongst diverse Indigenous communities with no reason to be especially welcoming to yet another white anthropologist wannabe ally, to know what you mean.

For no reason at all other than that it speak s to the righteous rage within I mentioned, and that's it's an amazing song by an amazing artist, here is Aboriginal singer/songwriter Archie Roach with "Alien Invasion."
posted by spitbull at 5:17 AM on November 6, 2016 [24 favorites]

Welp. God tells Jim Bakker that Trump is going to win

Bog standard misogyny. Le yawn.
although he may have inadvertently saved Earth once Heh.

Leftists in general are being fucking ridiculous in Washington right now

Um, Washington state Dems, could your leadership kind of get your electors' s**t together, like, real quick? Cause that'd be super. Just need them to focus . . . really bear down there until about mid-Jan 2017 mmmmkay.
posted by petebest at 5:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

To add a connection to the feminist foundation of this community and the election as many of us see it, never forget that being Indigenous in the settler-colonial state has required an enormous amount of emotional labor, as has also been true of women and other minority groups (think of SNL's "angry black guy" Obama translator). It has historically been dangerous for Indigenous people to appear pissed off.
posted by spitbull at 5:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

I had planned to canvass this weekend, but I had a work-induced anxiety attack yesterday and stayed home. My canvassing buddies invited me to NH to see Hillary, but I still feel drained and shaken, and I may not go. I'm trying to rally so I can see her, but...ACK.
posted by pxe2000 at 5:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Latina Hotel Workers Harness Force of Labor and of Politics in Las Vegas (NY Times)

Do not miss this article because of the somewhat dry headline. This is from the perspective of a woman in Las Vegas named Celia Vargas who will inspire you like crazy!
posted by sallybrown at 5:28 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

Re Hillary as Demon

There's a bit of rhetoric that I keep seeing on Facebook from conservative Christians trying to justify their vote for a greedy sexual predator. They say "Trump is carnal, but Hillary is demonic. God can work with carnal." I guess the idea is that you can be a rich sex fiend like King David, but if you Benghazi email blah blah whatever you have so clearly allied yourself to the forces of darkness that God can't reach your corrupt, withered soul.

On the other hand, I've seen this making the rounds among evangelicals, too, so they aren't completely a lost cause. Evangelicals: This Is What It Looks Like When You Sell Your Soul For A Bowl Of Trump
posted by Pater Aletheias at 5:31 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

This is from the perspective of a woman in Las Vegas named Celia Vargas who will inspire you like crazy!

Celia Vargas is so awesome.

Most of the hotels on and around the Strip are union shops, but the one that employs Ms. Vargas has yet to sign a contract. Even though its workers voted to unionize last December, and even though it is violating the law by not coming to the bargaining table — a point reinforced in a decision and order issued on Thursday by the National Labor Relations Board.

Guess the name of the hotel!
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:34 AM on November 6, 2016 [25 favorites]

Um, Washington state Dems, could your leadership kind of get your electors' s**t together, like, real quick? Cause that'd be super. Just need them to focus . . . really bear down there until about mid-Jan 2017 mmmmkay.

Electors vote on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December, so we only need them to hold on to sanity until December 19th this year.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 5:34 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

In the super sekrit ultra enormous FB group for Hillary, there is a steady stream of posts from people who are Republican, are NeverTrumpers, or whose very elderly parents are voting for a Democratic candidate for the first time ever.

All those early voting tabulations that reference the party affiliation assume that the voters are adhering to their party, but it sure does look like there's a significant number of republicans who are not.

Does anyone have a view inside of Trumpistan to see if there is a similar story line? I will see if I can wade into The_Donald but I don't know if I have the stomach to do that for very long.
posted by Sublimity at 5:42 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

That said, I have indeed experienced levels of generosity and kindness myself amongst diverse Indigenous communities with no reason to be especially welcoming to yet another white anthropologist wannabe ally, to know what you mean.

That's what I meant. You're very much welcome in Australia spitbull, memail me for recommendations and hookups when you get here!
posted by iffthen at 5:46 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

Oh shit guys, we lost Tehund again. They're still halfway trough the last thread after briefly having caught up. [warning: link loads prior 3000+ comment thread]

So everybody go for brunch and get the Eggs Benedict or visit the taco truck for a few hours ok?

And can someone go back and help Tehund get through the Hollandaise derail? That shit is murder on your boots.
posted by spitbull at 5:47 AM on November 6, 2016 [14 favorites]

I will see if I can wade into The_Donald but I don't know if I have the stomach to do that for very long.

11th hour conversions are a staple of any Us vs Them narrative; whether they actually exist or not, there will be anecdotal examples.
posted by Mooski at 5:47 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Someone in The Group ventured over to a group calling themselves "the Deplorables," and reported back that it's full of a lot of hating Clinton, and not any excitement and joy at voting for Trump. Quelle surprise.
posted by thebrokedown at 5:49 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

The other night I was driving in RI and I saw a sign posted on an overpass. It was scrawled with "drain the swamp #maga". I found it absolutely chilling.
posted by Biblio at 5:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

spitbull, that video link was really good. I'll listen more to Archie Roach. (Also it autoplayed to My Island Home by Warumpi Band. I needed to hear that again! The video includes an image of a road sign that says "Papunya 250km." That place has enormous significance for me.)
posted by iffthen at 5:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Tehund
I meant "tehhund" of course, which always makes me think of a clever dog who has mastered the skill of posting Doge memes, but somehow that medial double-h throws me every time. Sorry teh!
posted by spitbull at 5:55 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

I found an extra-special voter at the end of this article! (Yahoo News)

Gary Robinson came here from England in 1983 and hasn't voted for anyone since Margaret Thatcher. Until now.

He got his U.S. citizenship. He supported Brexit for his homeland, and believes political correctness is swamping Western culture —with Islamists pushing sharia law and politicians too weak to push back.

"England's lost," the Florida contractor said in an interview.

"We're probably over here, maybe five years behind England. But we're gonna see it. You call a place in Michigan now and it's, 'Press Three for Arabic.' It's ludicrous... We've got softies as politicians. They mean well. But I believe they're undermining the fabric of our society."

He's made his choice: "Trump motivated me to get citizenship."

posted by sallybrown at 5:57 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Does anyone have a view inside of Trumpistan to see if there is a similar story line? I will see if I can wade into The_Donald but I don't know if I have the stomach to do that for very long.

There is nothing about Repubs going Dem that I have seen. It's all about secret Trump voters and Dems going Trump because they know the truth.

At this time though they're mostly obsessed with all of the rampart voter fraud going on, Hillary and the Dems being Satanists and Daddy almost getting assassinated last night.
posted by Jalliah at 5:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Oh and Hispanics are voting for Trump more because people have brown friends, or know someone who knows someone who is brown and speaks spanish and they are all for Trump hugly.
posted by Jalliah at 5:59 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Some demographics on the FL voters not affiliated with a party (NPA):

Why do I think NPAs in FL will break HRC?
Through Friday:
All voters: 67.4% white, 14.5% Hispanic
Among NPAs: 63.5% white, 20.2% Hispanic.

This is where I falter as it brings up more questions. I know it's twitter but these numbers need more context to explain why he thinks that. At least for people not familiar with all of the assumptions.
Is it just the math? We're assuming that enough of the Hispanic vote is going to Clinton? I know that in Florida both traditionally and in polls a lot of Hispanics do vote GOP. So what's the breakdown and is it different now?

And I'm not saying I don't trust Schale to know what he's talking about I just wish I understood the arguments behind his thesis more.
posted by Jalliah at 6:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Bah. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette proved themselves as cowardly and mealy mouthed I was afraid they'd be and didn't endorse anyone but instead published this shitty "A guide to decide: Twelve tests to choose between Clinton and Trump" which is full of idiocies like:

He is dynamic — a builder and deal maker. Being the ultimate political outsider, Mr. Trump, again, has the freedom to experiment. And we need something of the New Deal spirit now — willingness to try new things and throw out what has clearly failed.

And:

With a good team, a Trump administration might be able to find a balance between intervention and paralysis by applying a simple principle: Where do the interests and security of the American people lie?

I wish that I hadn't let my digital subscription lapse because I want to be able to cancel it now. I know a few senior writers there and I'm really trying to restrain myself from sending any of them an email yelling at them about this.
posted by octothorpe at 6:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [21 favorites]

Wow. That is disgusting.
posted by petebest at 6:16 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

Leftists in general are being fucking ridiculous in Washington right now. My nightmare scenario is that Washington flips red because so many (mostly young, white and male) presumed progressive voters have decided this is the time for them to grandstand or "send a message" by writing in stupid shit, abstaining from voting, or JillNotHilling. I go round and round about which decision I feel the most contempt for. Definitely have a stack of folks I can't see taking seriously again after this is all over. I already pulled the plug on a Tinder date this week when she texted me she planned to "vote her conscious" and write in Bernie. I flat-out Can't with Cascadian leftist self-absorption anymore.

EatTheWeak, I completely sympathize... I've had enough run-ins with brogressives this year that I'm not even trying right now. Like, maybe don't yell at me about voting with my vagina if you're trying to get me to let you borrow my vagina for a night? Just a thought.
posted by palomar at 6:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [42 favorites]

I cannot believe that they had the gall to talk about Trump having the "New Deal spirit." That's beyond repulsive. It's obscene.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:19 AM on November 6, 2016 [54 favorites]

WTF P-G??????

Are they trying to scoop up the Trib's readership now that it's gone all digital?
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Is it just the math? We're assuming that enough of the Hispanic vote is going to Clinton? I know that in Florida both traditionally and in polls a lot of Hispanics do vote GOP. So what's the breakdown and is it different now?

There's an at least softly data-based expectation that NPA latinos in FL are disproportionately puertorriquenos, who can be predicted to vote almost-monolothically Democratic.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 6:25 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

I have a friend from the 'burgh who's been saying his friends from home are voting Trump. I've thought, nah - these are truly nice guys, not bros, with independent, strong wives, they have spoken out about increasing refugees and in support of Black Lives Matter, the two I know pretty well voted twice for Obama and I know one of them loved Bernie. These guys are the good guys. I guess he is right, though. Something in the water in Pittsburgh.
posted by sallybrown at 6:26 AM on November 6, 2016

Is it just the math? We're assuming that enough of the Hispanic vote is going to Clinton?

Jalliah, Latinx polls overwhelmingly for Clinton, even in Florida. This recent poll showed Clinton with an overall 30% lead with them. Breaking that down, with Cuban-Americans, a traditionally very strong R vote, Trump is only leading 49-42, and non-Cubans went for Clinton 71-20.

And nationally, the WaPo tracking poll has Clinton up 72-18 with Latinx. As comparison, Romney got 27% of the Latinx vote and lost by 4%.
posted by chris24 at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Just got back from a few minutes of The_Donald. In what universe is it not crystal-clear that those people are bugfuck insane? Holy cow.

There were a few sprinkles of "I was a Democrat and now I support Donald" in there, generally conveyed that same sort of scornful sour-grapes Trumpster tone, or outright frothy fantasy brainwashing (referencing "being RedPilled"). Such a strong contrast from those republican crossover voices in the FB thread, which are generally about living up to American ideals.

Fear is a helluva drug.
posted by Sublimity at 6:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Going to the_donald for any sort of information is pointless. They are completely disconnected from reality. Any truth told there is purely by coincidence.

They were pushing that Trump stood up to an assassination attempt even after it came out that there was no gun and the protester was pulling out a sign.

The_donald is either performance art or total idiocy.
posted by jclarkin at 6:28 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

I'm curious how much traffic will drop to the /The_Donald subreddit after the election? We know from the DNC hack that FSB and GRU hacking units were both hacking it simultaneously, possibly in competition with each other the way that government agencies often do. I have a theory that a certain percentage of /The_Donald are a part of Putin's digital troll army which might be unknowingly chatting up fellow Russian trolls, constantly one-upping each other on the crazy but neither of them can vote. It would be interesting if a certain percentage of traffic to the subreddit evaporated overnight when they pulled the plug on the op.
posted by bluecore at 6:29 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

Yeah, so basically there are two things up with Latinos in Florida. The first is that the Latino population of Florida is increasingly non-Cuban-American, and that trend has accelerated recently because people have been moving to Florida from Puerto Rico, where the economy has really collapsed. Puerto Ricans are US citizens, so recent arrivals from Puerto Rico can all vote. And the second is that younger Cuban-Americans are way more likely to entertain voting for Democrats than older Cuban-Americans are. It's no longer true that the Republicans have a lock on the Cuban-American vote.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:31 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Comments on that P-G non-endorsement have people opening up with both barrels.

The Toledo Blade, owned by the same family, ran the exact same article, so it's clearly coming from the owner. Oh, who was just photographed last month proudly hanging out on Donald Trump's plane. Imagine that.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:33 AM on November 6, 2016 [16 favorites]

On the other hand, I've seen this making the rounds among evangelicals, too, so they aren't completely a lost cause. Evangelicals: This Is What It Looks Like When You Sell Your Soul For A Bowl Of Trump

That was a really good piece, Pater Aletheias. My biased, human take on Trump-voting evangelicals is they've decided to choose party over God, and party over country. It's not necessarily conscious soul-selling though: I think a few decades of Moral Majority manipulation have thoroughly ingrained the idea that abortion is the absolute evil a Christian voter must vote against, and Republicans just keep waving the banner.

Re what I said above, that the Holy Spirit needs to do some homework: of course that's ridiculous. A Holy Spirit that's so obtuse is hardly part of the Godhead (I'm aiming for Voltaire's neither Holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. Alas, I've not reached my 40 cups of coffee for the day.)

On that note: if you dig into Jim Bakker's Youtube presence (don't), there's some worrying stuff there. There's all sorts of people prophesying all sorts of things, and they aren't all good. I'm gonna throw in another Bible verse here (which is ridiculous and annoying to have to do, thanks a lot evangelicals):

If what a prophet proclaims in the name of the LORD does not take place or come true, that is a message the LORD has not spoken. That prophet has spoken presumptuously, so do not be alarmed. Deut 18:22

I'd paraphrase that as "put up or shut up." Get it right or disappear. Some of what I see on Bakker's channel represents the worst of Pentecostalism, and I say that as someone who dislikes labels but is best described by "pentecostal," if it comes to that. There's also my own experience of seeing people who have a reputation as prophets, legitimately as far as I can see, in the sense they have foreknowledge, but don't behave in ways that are appropriate to that calling, e.g. calling out national leaders as being influenced by demons. Yeah, you guys wouldn't say that to their face.

Anyway - as a Christian, some of this prophecy stuff looks very legitimate, because "how did you get that information??" But there's also a lot of noise and stupidity. Prepare to dig if you feel inclined to explore (and don't think Bakker is representative. I think he's a twit.)
posted by iffthen at 6:34 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

The_donald is either performance art or total idiocy.

I truly believe it began as the former. Many of the posts I saw in the early primary race referred to 'nimble navigators' and 'high energy'/'low energy' members of the subreddit - I could be wrong, but it had the feel of 4-channers making fun of something.

I think as more and more of the Republican field dropped, the patients took over the asylum.
posted by Mooski at 6:34 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Thanks all for the info about Florida demographics and breakdown. Make more sense now.

I truly believe it began as the former. Many of the posts I saw in the early primary race referred to 'nimble navigators' and 'high energy'/'low energy' members of the subreddit - I could be wrong, but it had the feel of 4-channers making fun of something.

I think as more and more of the Republican field dropped, the patients took over the asylum.

Was just reading some stuff on r/politics this morning and some people were talking about this. Apparently the sub started as satire and to make fun of the idea of Trump as a Candidate and people were in on the joke. It then attracted people that didn't understand the joke and thought it was serious. They eventually took over.
posted by Jalliah at 6:39 AM on November 6, 2016 [13 favorites]

NY local race: NY 19 Siena poll: Faso (R) leading Teachout (D) by 6 points, 48%-42%. Vulnerable GOP open seat.

I'll be thinking of Teachout and hope she somehow gets swept up in a wave. She seems good from an outsider's perspective.
posted by sallybrown at 6:40 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Concerning Florida Latinx voters:

Traditionally the Latinx vote in Florida has been dominated by Cuban-Americans. This has traditionally been a very conservative bunch largely fixated on concerns about Cuba under Castro. Republicans have been willing to push a way more aggressive stance vs Castro and thus Republicans often got more voters.

However there has been a weakening of the Cuban-American voting block as demographics and time and Obama's policies toward normalizing relations with Cuba have seen some liberalization of the Cuban American voter. Younger Cuban Americans are less ideological and my understanding is that at some of the older cohort actually want to be able to go visit Cuba and they also see the natural end of the Castro regime and have some hope for a peaceful reentry of Cuba into the world community.

In addition there has been a massive influx of Puerto Ricans in the middle part of the state (Orlando area). These individuals have been economical displaced by the shitshow in Puerto Rico and let's just say they are not happy about Republican failures to address the economic situation in Puerto Rico. They are all citizens and those of age are definitely willing to vote.

Finally Mexican Americans are coming into the northern part of the state in massive numbers and while a certain percentage are undocumented there are also a bunch of young Mexican-American citizens who would traditionally not pass a Likely Voter screen due to their age and ethnic background. There is an extreme loathing of Trump and his villification of the Latinx community. If you have friends and family members that could be targeted by a Trump administration that's going to inspire many to repudiate him.

In general Florida is basically becoming more diverse literally every day. Yes there is still a part of Florida that is part and parcel of the Old South with all that entails but it's shrinking all the time.

And let's be honest Trump hasn't been endearing himself to other key demographics either. South Florida has a metric boatload of retired Jewish Americans who have seen in the fascist rhetoric of Trump and his villification of NY Banks, etc a more than vague reminder of past horrors. While the number of Jewish Americans who actually experienced the horrors of the Holocaust diminishes every year there are still lots of Jewish Americans who had a grandfather or grandmother who still had a serial number tattooed onto their left arm and that has a tendency of sticking with you.

Hopefully Florida delivers a repudiation of Trumpism Tuesday that diverts the Republican party from their current trajectory of extreme nativism and race based hatred but I'm still a bit fearful about Florida although the EV numbers looks very very solid.
posted by vuron at 6:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

Tom Nichols, of NeverTrump tweetstorm fame, has a good condemnation of Trump that may help with your Republican friends who are indecisive.

While I don't agree with his Republican assessment of Clinton, he at least takes NeverTrump to it's logical conclusion and endorses her.

What Trump has already cost America: And how much steeper the price will grow if he wins
posted by chris24 at 6:45 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

sallybrown: "I have a friend from the 'burgh who's been saying his friends from home are voting Trump. I've thought, nah - these are truly nice guys, not bros, with independent, strong wives, they have spoken out about increasing refugees and in support of Black Lives Matter, the two I know pretty well voted twice for Obama and I know one of them loved Bernie. These guys are the good guys. I guess he is right, though. Something in the water in Pittsburgh."

The city itself is heavily in support of Clinton but the city is only something like 15% of the metro area which gets very conservative in the suburban and rural areas. And there are quite a few people in old mill towns in the area who have been sucked in by Trump's "I'll bring the mills back" nonsense.
posted by octothorpe at 6:46 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Oh and if anyone is curious about the reaction of places like r/the_donald on election day there is sub set up for just that. r/the_meltdown It's so people can see but not have to go there. I'm not a Reddit person, just reading some r/politics this past week so am just learning the ins and outs there. I thought this is pretty hilarious.
posted by Jalliah at 6:47 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

> I cannot believe that they had the gall to talk about Trump having the "New Deal spirit." That's beyond repulsive. It's obscene.

Well, we know Trump has Russian hacker connections, so it's possible he does have the New Deal Spirit, slotted in the ROMcase next to Dixie Flatline.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 6:49 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Apparently the sub started as satire and to make fun of the idea of Trump as a Candidate and people were in on the joke. It then attracted people that didn't understand the joke and thought it was serious. They eventually took over.

I think of it as Chappelle's Law: when you satirize abhorrent beliefs because they're so horrible you need to laugh at them, you inevitably attract people who interpret the jokes instead as so true they have to laugh at them.
posted by tocts at 7:01 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

Surge of latino voters rattles trump campaign.

You don't say?

I could have written this in March and then just filled the numbers in later. How can this possibly be a surprise to anyone
posted by schadenfrau at 7:03 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

Long, but worth a read - a 1993 NYT article by Michael Kelly: Saint Hillary

Plus, not sure if it has been noted here yet, but NYT announced it will have unlimited access Nov. 7-9
posted by madamjujujive at 7:05 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

I think the Latinx vote was generally ignored in previous Presidential elections. I guess it used to split pretty much in ways reflecting the rest of the nation (didn't Bush win the Hispanic vote in '04?). How a backlash against Trump's unadulterated racism is a surprise, I don't know.
posted by dis_integration at 7:07 AM on November 6, 2016

Jamil Snith on all the empathy and understanding for Trumpists.
posted by Artw at 7:12 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Justinian, buddy… whenever the JCPL spikes I recommend watching the JWCV.

Johnny Wallflower Calming Video

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:16 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Crazy shit happening in Florida.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 7:23 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

The thread's getting unmanageable, so I can't be sure no one has made this point, but I wanted to jump in with a comment on the Clinton in the Rain moment, because I think it ties to an interview from Humans of New York she did a few months back.

Here's the quote:

"[When campaigning] Women are seen through a different lens. It’s not bad. It’s just a fact. It’s really quite funny. I’ll go to these events and there will be men speaking before me, and they’ll be pounding the message, and screaming about how we need to win the election. And people will love it. And I want to do the same thing. Because I care about this stuff. But I’ve learned that I can’t be quite so passionate in my presentation. I love to wave my arms, but apparently that’s a little bit scary to people. And I can’t yell too much. It comes across as ‘too loud’ or ‘too shrill’ or ‘too this’ or ‘too that.’ Which is funny, because I’m always convinced that the people in the front row are loving it.”

You know what's happening in that speech? Clinton is shouting. And she's waving her arms. And that's what made me start tearing up.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 7:36 AM on November 6, 2016 [96 favorites]

That video is wonderful, steady-state.
posted by Coventry at 7:39 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Trump is an idiot and he's surrounded by idiots. The post-mortem of Romney 2012 was very clear, you cannot win in national elections when your core demographic is white men.

1)Most of the analysis centered around a general belief that it's functionally impossible to increase white "working class" voter turnout signficantly and white college-educated vote at high percentages but moving the voter split is challenging (unless you run an open misogynist).

2)Republicans typically view African American voters as not worth the trouble. Voting split if overwhelming Democrat so the optimal strategy is to actually work at disenfranchisement of AAs, i.e. shrink the number of eligible AAs. In the long term this is been facilitated by mass incarceration of AAs (throwing people into prison isn't just for making your buddies rich it's also good politically) and in the short term its facilitated by attempts to purge voter rolls, force Voter ID laws, etc.

3)Latinx voters have typically been seen as the optimal route for expanding the Republican base. There is a belief that Latinx voters are actually socially conservative based upon issues of faith (although I think this is a false assumption based upon perceptions about english-speaking Catholics and the general trend towards conservatism under JPII and Benedict, there is definitely an element of socially liberal Catholicism expressed in much of South America though, witness the definite theological shift between Benedict and Francis). In addition Latinx voters are supposedly pro small business which is seen as a central tenet of modern Republican thought. I think there is also some belief that Latinx voters can be cultivated into ideal minorities like the Cuban-American voter block.

4)Asian Americans are increasingly voting Democratic but population distributions are typically resulting in local or regional shifts rather than being extremely relevant at the national level. Most of the areas where Asian Americans make up a significant voting population are already lost territory for Republicans.

So Latinx voters were seen as the optimal way of growing the party. However race-baiting against "illegal aliens" is a very successful strategy in many state and congressional races. For the most part there was an understanding that while you could race-bait it needed to be through dog-whistles and at the national level Republicans needed to have Latinx candidates, thus the rise of Rubio and Cruz.

However the Republican primary season skews the Republican candidates significantly. Republican candidates are supposed to talk tough in the primaries and then shift into general election mode later. Thus Republicans tend to get milquetoast national candidates. This bait and switch routine has gotten frustrating for many Republican base voters so when Trump came onto the seen and he was willing to engage in explicit race-baiting while also repudiating the Republican elite it crystalized support around him. These deplorables propelled Trump through the primaries and the rest of the party has glommed onto him like spineless jellyfish.

So Latinx voters coming out in droves to repudiate Trump is pretty much a given but it's also terrifying for Republicans but it puts a lot of downballot Republicans at risk. It also has the potential of salting the earth with Latinx voters for decades. Republicans cannot allow Latinx voters to become a solid 70-30 partisan split and continue to be a relevant party in national elections. It also could result in some tectonic shifts on the congressional level as Latinx voters could easily swing a lot of ostensibly red districts into purple or blue.

The thing is that I don't know how the Republican party backs away from the abyss. Repudiation of the deplorables is politically risky but continuing to back positions that the deplorables like is political risky.
posted by vuron at 7:40 AM on November 6, 2016 [40 favorites]

Sam Wang and Beyoncé sharing a split screen on MSNBC. This election season is so surreal.
posted by octothorpe at 7:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

The thread's getting unmanageable...

There'll be a new election post a bit later today as this one is unlikely to be functional for many come election day. Mods have said yes, and am finishing off the new post and doing some last link checking shortly.
posted by Wordshore at 7:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

People people! The Sunday puzzler on NPR! "A name in the news that has a double letter. If you change that letter it will be a popular food product." Yes the answer was McMullin / McMuffin!
posted by R343L at 7:44 AM on November 6, 2016 [48 favorites]

Another thing from the WaPo/ABC poll, most Clinton supporters are voting for Clinton, while most Trump supporters are voting against Clinton rather than for him. Hopefully this helps the GOTV advantage.

"Clinton has a clear advantage in affirmative support, with 55 percent of her backers saying the main reason they are voting for her is because they support her, compared with 43 percent of Trump voters. More Trump voters say they are voting for him mainly because they oppose Clinton."
posted by chris24 at 7:45 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

Long, but worth a read - a 1993 NYT article by Michael Kelly: Saint Hillary

That article has everything - places where she really inspires me all the way through places that remind of the things I strongly dislike about her. And lots of bits where an "intellectual" man is condescending and belittling of her.
posted by sallybrown at 7:47 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Interesting comments about failure to verify the physical security of electronic voting machines, among election officials.

"I have been an election worker. We were asked to sign the attestation envelopes in advance.

"I trust further checks were conducted higher up. But at our level, protocol was ignored."

posted by Coventry at 7:48 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Here's a handy database of Trump False Things.

There are quite a few.
posted by Devonian at 7:51 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

they should use that rain video in their tv slots. it's very good.
posted by andrewcooke at 7:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

I think there is also some belief that Latinx voters can be cultivated into ideal minorities like the Cuban-American voter block.

The racist Steve Sailer indicted Karl Rove on this. I'm not going to link to the racist site that has the money quotes (google 'karl-rove-architect-of-the-minority-mortgage-meltdown' if you're interested, warning -- it's a racist site)

the main indictment:

As you`ll recall, Rove`s best-known tactic to appeal to Latino voters was repeatedly pushing "comprehensive immigration reform" (i.e., an amnesty for illegal immigrants).

Rove, though, had other arrows in his quiver. One was a plan to turn Hispanics into Republicans by providing them with loose credit so they could become homeowners.

This is exactly what happened 2002-2006 and a big drive of the housing bubble of 2004-2006.

I do think Rove's evil calculation was 'veterans and homeowners vote GOP, so let's make more of both, by hook or crook' . . . .
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 7:56 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

Some state info. Go Texas!

@steveschale
Yesterday was the best day for Dems in FL of cycle.
Won the day by about 26k voters.
Over 6.15m total FL votes so far.

@Redistrict
TX: Hidalgo, largest Hispanic county in state, has already cast more votes than in all of '12 - and we haven't even reached Election Day.

@Redistrict
Slight correction - El Paso is largest Hispanic majority county in state, but Hispanics are an even larger % in Hidalgo.
posted by chris24 at 7:56 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

A great piece by Ralston this morning:

Donald Trump may have been here this weekend, believing in the polls that show him ahead or competitive here. But like Bruce Willis in “The Sixth Sense” (spoiler alert), he does not realize he is dead.

And Ralston reminds me of something we haven't discussed much here: This wave of Latinx/Hispanic voters (and women nationwide) will elect the first Latina Senator in U.S. history!!!!!! That is HUGE!
posted by sallybrown at 8:00 AM on November 6, 2016 [23 favorites]

@Redistrict
TX: Hidalgo, largest Hispanic county in state, has already cast more votes than in all of '12 - and we haven't even reached Election Day.

@Redistrict
Slight correction - El Paso is largest Hispanic majority county in state, but Hispanics are an even larger % in Hidalgo.

Great so I went to this twitter page to see is there is more and ended up with an ugh. This tweet about some not so good numbers in Upper NY state

This is unsettling for Clinton if that kind of underperformance is similar across the border in PA & elsewhere.

in response to:

Siena has terrible numbers for Clinton in Upstate NY. Down 5% in #NY19 (Obama won by 6% in '12). Down 14% in #NY22 (Obama/Romney tied).

Anyone have any insight into this?
posted by Jalliah at 8:05 AM on November 6, 2016

The Sixth Circuit ruling is in favor of the Trump campaign. I imagine this will go up to the Supreme Court today as well.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:05 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

No rationale at all. The 6th Cir is dominated by Republican judges.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:06 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Apparently Francis, host of the show Cooking with Dog, has passed away. Fuck 2016.
posted by stolyarova at 8:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

The thing is, I think that many Latinos might be attracted to a moderate Republican party. It's absolutely true that Latinos have high rates of small business ownership. It's true that many are pretty socially conservative, although I think it's a really different kind of social conservatism than your mainstream Republican white Evangelical version. I think that Republicans might be able to win significant Latino support if they could run on a platform of equal opportunity, a limited but positive role for government, and support for personal responsibility tempered by compassion. But they can't do that, because they've gone off the deep end ideologically. The problem isn't just the racism, although of course the racism is a massive problem. Another problem is that the same forces that are pushing them towards racism are also pushing them towards an unsustainable policy agenda.

Most of the areas where Asian Americans make up a significant voting population are already lost territory for Republicans.

Mostly true, but my sense is that Asian-Americans have been a significant factor in Virginia's transition to a Democratic majority. I'd be curious if the numbers bear that out.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

"The other night I was driving in RI and I saw a sign posted on an overpass. It was scrawled with "drain the swamp #maga". I found it absolutely chilling."

I live in RI, in Warwick, which is a pretty suburban area. I've seen several Trump yard signs, but few if any Hillary ones. I even saw a guy in a Trump mask dancing around on this median where we usually see panhandlers.

But, here's the thing. RI is a solid blue state. I think people aren't putting up Hillary signs is because there's no reason to. The sentiment, I think, is that of course right thinking people are going to vote for Hillary. It's like putting up a sign to say that you like sleeping indoors.

You only need to put up a sign if you're varying from the mean.

(And actually the Trump yard signs are kind of handy. I don't know much about the people running for city council, but since Patricia Morgan signs show up in the same yards as Donald Trump signs I know to vote for the other guy on that race.)
posted by JDHarper at 8:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

Sam Wang and Beyoncé sharing a split screen on MSNBC. This election season is so surreal

Hah! She wasn't on the show, they just opened with a few seconds of her performing at a rally and then kept her up mutely dancing while he interviewed his guests in a tiny picture-in-picture window.

Also, "Democratic Strategist Krystal Ball?" We need new writers.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:12 AM on November 6, 2016 [19 favorites]

Let's talk about something really important: how to pronounce Latinx. Since the letter x in Spanish is equis, I propose it should be pronounced Lah-teen-EHK-ees.
posted by medusa at 8:12 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

@NAACP: "From the basement of this very church, nine voices are crying out "VOTE For Me!"" - @BishopSam
posted by NorthernLite at 8:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [18 favorites]

Jalliah I don't have any particular insight, but my understanding has been that the Clinton campaign expects to underperform Obama in the rural areas of PA while overperforming in the suburbs. Those NYS numbers don't seem particularly disastrous to me. She can lose votes in the Pennsyltucky areas as long as she makes them up with women in the Philly suburbs, which polls show her doing quite nicely.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:14 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

The thing is that I don't know how the Republican party backs away from the abyss.

It's not difficult. Just stop saying racist shit. I mean, it's not like the GOP can't appeal to conservative white men without doing or saying racist shit. Just say normal boring conservative shit instead, blah blah business blah blah moral values blah family. But saying racist shit is an easy, lazy way to get (a lot of) conservative white men's attention right now.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

@ForecasterEnten
Columbus Dispatch: Clinton 48, Trump 47 in Ohio
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html
Would explain why Clinton was campaigning in Ohio.
posted by chris24 at 8:20 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

"Clinton has a clear advantage in affirmative support, with 55 percent of her backers saying the main reason they are voting for her is because they support her, compared with 43 percent of Trump voters. More Trump voters say they are voting for him mainly because they oppose Clinton."

That's it. That's the ballgame.

Every presidential election in my memory has been won by the candidate whose supporters were fired up to vote for him, rather than against the other guy: Reagan over Carter and Mondale; Bush over Dukakis; Clinton I over Bush and Dole; Bush II over Gore and Kerry; Obama over McCain and Romney.
posted by dersins at 8:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

> Even if you read every email, "we're not talking about a lot. 60,000 is nothing."

These people are clearly here on the election thread with us. Yes, indeed, 60000 posts is but merely an evening's trifle . . .
posted by flug at 8:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

More state info:

@Nate_Cohn
Last day of NC early vote was strong for Clinton, esp on black turnout:
192k
White 62.5, Black 27.9
D 41.3, R 29.6
18-29: 21.9
>65: 10.5
posted by chris24 at 8:23 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

6th Circuit issues stay of Ohio voter intimidation case TRO, halting enforcement of order that Trump campaign had opposed.

Federal judge had barred presidential campaigns & others from taking a variety of actions, including impeding voters and photographing them.

Luckily I don't think this will have the same Purcell issue as we saw yesterday. The Purcell principle came about in a case involving whether or not a voter had to present ID to vote. So far this year we've seen Purcell referenced in a Sixth Circuit case challenging a law against ballot selfies, an E.D. Pa. case challenging a state law about who can qualify as an official poll watcher, and a Ninth Circuit case (which the Supreme Court weighed in on yesterday) involving the collection of ballots.

The very basis of the Purcell principle is to avoid chaos and confusion for the sake of keeping elections running smoothly. Upheaval and last minute changes leading to uncertainty are bad, under Purcell, because they chill the vote and deter voters.

I might be wrong but I think this Sixth Circuit case is about third parties (people working for or with campaigns) and what they can do, not poll workers or voters themselves. Further, the heart of this case is about voter intimidation - trying to make sure voters are not deterred from voting.
posted by sallybrown at 8:23 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Ralston is very confusing. Seems to have moved Nevada to red, unless he's being sarcastic.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:24 AM on November 6, 2016

One was a plan to turn Hispanics into Republicans by providing them with loose credit so they could become homeowners.

Sailer is a despicable person, and his rationale there is to blame minorities for the financial crisis, but "turn people into property-owning citizens" has been part of the American narrative since colonial days, but particularly in the redlining era of "upgrading" certain immigrant communities into the pantheon of whiteness.

That ties in with Ross Douthat's weird and icky NYT op-ed today, which is basically "white people stopped breeding and so they don't have big families to support them, so they want government to do it instead" with a side-serving of "white people think they're being outbred by the browns". That's just shamefully ignorant.
posted by holgate at 8:24 AM on November 6, 2016

roomthreeseventeen, he is being sarcastic.
posted by acidic at 8:25 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Great so I went to this twitter page to see is there is more and ended up with an ugh. This tweet about some not so good numbers in Upper NY state

I can't speak to NY-22 but I live just outside of NY-19. There are definitely pockets of deep Trump country there—tons of gun nuts ("Repeal the SAFE Act" signs far outnumber signs for political candidates), homemade Trump signs in the middle of nowhere, lots of angry exurbanites. I'm not surprised Clinton does poorly there. Siena still has her up 17 points statewide. I suspect she's losing some votes to third parties, too—14% of respondents to this Siena poll were still undecided or voting third party.
posted by enn at 8:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

Ralston is very confusing. Seems to have moved Nevada to red, unless he's being sarcastic.

He is very sarcastic on his Twitter. Does not suffer fools. :)
posted by sallybrown at 8:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

Pant-suited drag queen Hillarys in the Castro.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 8:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

Ralston's definitely being sarcastic. But it looks like GOP firms are trying to create chaff and flood the polling averages with cheap robopolls over these final few days.
posted by holgate at 8:27 AM on November 6, 2016

Ralston is very confusing. Seems to have moved Nevada to red, unless he's being sarcastic.

roomthreeseventeen, he is being sarcastic.

Yep, he's a smartass. Like @ppppolls, he often mocks idiot Republicans. Or in this case, Trump's spokesman.
posted by chris24 at 8:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

McMuffinMentum!

Bottom of the Thread Story:

I've mentioned elsewhere on the site that my life for the last five months has basically been spent taking care of my mom for 14-16 hours a day, going home to sleep, and starting over again. It's been pretty bleak, but for the last month or so I've been catching up on the election thread on my ride home, and there is almost always a McMuffin mention. This serves to remind me that there is a McDonalds near my stop, and because America Is Great At Breakfast I can get an Egg McMuffin at 9:00 at night. And I love Egg McMuffins. Love. Them. So thanks, MetaFilter, for doubling my quality of life. No joke.

And thank you, Herb Peterson, for inventing the Egg McMuffin!
posted by Room 641-A at 8:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [49 favorites]

roomthreeseventeen, metafilter is a dangerous place for someone with a broken snark detector.
posted by Coventry at 8:29 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Anyone have any insight into [poor Clinton performance in upstate NY]?

There are shitloads of older rural-ish anglos without degrees. Trumpland.

This applies less in 22, which has Binghamton (home of a big SUNY, the remnants of IBM, and assorted tech firms), but even it is overwhelmingly anglo (like I was surprised at how much when I pulled the data) and still manages to have a college attainment rate below the NY rate.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:30 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Tearjerker alert: I waited 96 years - photos & stories of American women born before August 18, 1920, when the final state ratified the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
posted by madamjujujive at 8:31 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

Last night I said something to a fellow volunteer at the staging location about how she should try to convince a conservative relative to vote for Egg McMuffin, and her eyes got all wide, and she was like "I love Egg McMuffins! I'm going to go get one on the way home!" I wonder if McDonalds is seeing an Egg-related surge in McMuffin sales.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:31 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

Justinian, I e-mailed the WA state Democratic party right after Mr. Satiacum's story first broke and heard nothing at all from them. This disappoints me, and I have no idea what to do about it. In his particular case, I wondered if the party could enlist Senator Sanders to talk to him about doing the job he was elected to do or resigning. By refusing to cast his EV for the state winner, he is effectively disenfranchising thousands, if not tens of thousands of voters and that isn't right or fair to the voters.

I understand that Mr. Satiacum has intense political views which do differ from the general election voters of the state. I understand that he wants Native American interests to be far more important in the political and human spheres than they are now and I agree with him on this matter.

Aside from disenfranchising WA voters with his stance, though, I have another problem with his projected vote. If he and others do defy the votes of their states, we could end up with a failure to elect Secretary Clinton. Do these people really think a Trump presidency will help their causes? Doesn't it seem reasonable that Secretary Clinton gives them the best chance of moving their causes forward, while allowing the election of Trump will further diminish their causes (and worse)? If he watched the campaign at all, Mr. Satiacum should have seen that a Trump presidency would lead to a terrible outcome for anyone but wealthy, white males.

In the end, I have to hope that Secretary Clinton earns way more than the needed 270 EV on Tuesday. That way, these people can make their point but not cost themselves and the rest of the country a terrible amount of harm. It is wrong that it has come to this, though, and we, as a nation, need to look into abolishing the EV system.

And, as a Washingtonian, I offer apologies :( This election was already stressful enough without adding faithless electors to the mix.
posted by Silverstone at 8:32 AM on November 6, 2016 [19 favorites]

Siena has terrible numbers for Clinton in Upstate NY. Down 5% in #NY19 (Obama won by 6% in '12). Down 14% in #NY22 (Obama/Romney tied).

Upstate NY, outside of the cities, is quite white and extremely racist. And, because many of the "big" offices like gov, senator, president, etc usually go D, they have the SILENCED ALL MY LIFE attitude that fits right into Trump's rhetoric. I'm expecting a lot of rural upstate NY and PA to go harder for Trump than they did for Romney. Won't make a difference in the outcome of the state as a whole though.
posted by melissasaurus at 8:33 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

I wonder if McDonalds is seeing an Egg-related surge in McMuffin sales.

The campaign almost makes sense as a McDonalds marketing ploy.
posted by Coventry at 8:33 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

madamjujujive, thank you for that. Amazing.
posted by chris24 at 8:35 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Any guesses as to where in New Hampshire voter intimidation is likely to be most prevalent?
posted by Coventry at 8:36 AM on November 6, 2016

The thing is that I don't know how the Republican party backs away from the abyss. Repudiation of the deplorables is politically risky but continuing to back positions that the deplorables like is political risky.

The NeverTrump strategists who endorsed the 2012 postmortem are pretty frank about it: the longer this goes on, the more blatantly GOP state legislatures and their county board representatives have to influence elections through punitive voter ID laws and polling place restrictions, which identifies them as vote suppressors (and potentially forces the VRA back on the federal agenda). The boost that the GOP get from midterms gives those legislators a false sense of long-term empowerment.

Mark Salter: "No future for a party that only wins when the fewest vote."

I think people like Salter will be ignored by elected Republicans who are gunning for a big Senate win in 2018. Let's see how that goes.
posted by holgate at 8:36 AM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

Oliver Willis linked to:

Donald Trump Is Going To Get His Ass Kicked On Tuesday

"But this isn’t close, and never was. The evidence right there in front of you, if you care to notice."
posted by jjj606 at 8:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [20 favorites]

This made me laugh out loud. Kellyanne Conway is like the evil twin of James Carville - misusing her considerable talents in such a horrible way.

On conf call with reporters, Conway says recent Kaine spanish language speech in AZ proves "you can be boring in two languages." (twitter)
posted by sallybrown at 8:44 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Donald Trump Is Going To Get His Ass Kicked On Tuesday

"But this isn’t close, and never was. The evidence right there in front of you, if you care to notice."

Uses the term "butternut turd." A++ Would read again.
posted by mochapickle at 8:44 AM on November 6, 2016 [33 favorites]

I understand that Mr. Satiacum has intense political views which do differ from the general election voters of the state. I understand that he wants Native American interests to be far more important in the political and human spheres than they are now and I agree with him on this matter.

As a white, child-of-European-immigrants Washington state voter, I'm somewhat amused at the irony of being disenfranchised by a Native American. But only if Trump loses.
posted by Slothrup at 8:47 AM on November 6, 2016 [11 favorites]

Siena has terrible numbers for Clinton in Upstate NY. Down 5% in #NY19 (Obama won by 6% in '12). Down 14% in #NY22 (Obama/Romney tied).

Upstate NY, outside of the cities, is quite white and extremely racist

Anecdata from Albany: a smattering of Trump signs on my daily dog walks, (including one around the corner that says "deplorable and proud of it", which, wtf?!) with a stronger showing when driving outside of Albany proper. I wouldn't be shocked if the margin here is smaller than it was for Obama.
posted by dis_integration at 8:47 AM on November 6, 2016

From the Columbus Dispatch article on the Ohio poll mentioned above:

"Pace Engineering CEO Craig Wallace of Gates Mills, east of Cleveland: “I voted for Trump but think he is unstable and an egomaniac as well as dangerous on national defense and economics. This year, there was no good candidate.”

Racism and/or misogyny is a helluva drug.
posted by chris24 at 8:53 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

On conf call with reporters, Conway says recent Kaine spanish language speech in AZ proves "you can be boring in two languages."

The saddest part about that awful line is that it's playing to a mostly-anglo press pack that doesn't know what Spanish-language media says, or considers it irrelevant. At least Conway will never run a major campaign again, and her final check from the campaign will bounce.
posted by holgate at 8:57 AM on November 6, 2016 [18 favorites]

Final NBC/WSJ Poll: Clinton Holds a Four-Point National Lead Over Trump

It's 5 points in the 2-way, so 3rd party voters break slightly her way.

"Looking inside the numbers of the two-way horserace, Clinton is ahead of Trump among women (53 percent to 38 percent), African Americans (86 percent to 7 percent), Latinos (65 percent to 20 percent) and those ages 18-34 (55 percent to 32 percent).

Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (47 percent to 42 percent), seniors (49 percent to 42 percent) and whites (53 percent to 38 percent).

But there's a significant difference among whites: Those without college degrees are breaking for Trump by a 2-to-1 margin, 60 percent to 30 percent.

Yet among whites with college degrees, Clinton is ahead by 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent."
posted by chris24 at 9:00 AM on November 6, 2016

obliquity of the ecliptic:

So I'm an expat and it is killing me being out of the country for this election. Not since 9/11 have I felt such a drive to "go home".

I was an activist for many years in the 80s and 90s, organizing for LGBT and women's reproductive rights first in college and then when I was living in DC. The drive to do something now is overwhelming.

Also, all the Canadians around me are a bit snobby when it comes to US politics and are definitely not interested in hearing me go on about it since it "doesn't affect them."

As a Canadian who's rabidly followed US politics very closely since high school, first let me apologize, and secondly, let me just say I feel your pain. I've had recent conversation with other Canadians whose analysis is maybe at the complacently smug level of "Well, gosh, Trump sure is ridiculous, but Clinton seems kind of corrupt, but America's crazy so I'm just glad I'm Canadian" and I have to stop myself from grabbing them by the front of the shirt, shaking them like a martini, and screaming into their face "Do you realize that the GOP campaign quite literally sounds like a Stormfront discussion thread or an Alex Jones broadcast? Do you realize that this campaign is the apotheosis of the Southern Strategy? Do you realize WHAT IS AT STAKE HERE?"

Ahem.

Instead of doing that, I come here and read first hand stories from people working phones to GOTV or going out to campaign and canvass and feel much better.

As someone whose country shares a lengthy undefended border with the US, thanks to all of you who are out there doing the work. Get 'er done, eh?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:02 AM on November 6, 2016 [28 favorites]

I'm reminded at this point of a complaint by a creationist after Dover v Kitzmiller - "It's a conspiracy by the intelligent and educated"...
posted by Devonian at 9:05 AM on November 6, 2016 [22 favorites]

The best part of that Ohio poll showing it neck-and-neck is that Trump - who is jetting around NINE states in these last two days, including Minnesota, Virginia, and Wisconsin - has no stops planned in Ohio.
posted by sallybrown at 9:06 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Upstate NY is regressive as fuck and likes its white male privilege a LOT.

IME republicans in NYS tend to be pretty deplorable, especialily on race.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:07 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Butternut turd.

Drew Magary is a national treasure.
posted by Sophie1 at 9:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

The NeverTrump strategists who endorsed the 2012 postmortem are pretty frank about it: the longer this goes on, the more blatantly GOP state legislatures and their county board representatives have to influence elections through punitive voter ID laws and polling place restrictions, which identifies them as vote suppressors (and potentially forces the VRA back on the federal agenda). The boost that the GOP get from midterms gives those legislators a false sense of long-term empowerment.

I disagree, I don't think there's very much sunlight at all between NeverTrumpers and the base on voter suppression. There's pretty much no support for automatic voter registration, or rally any way at all to make voter registration easier. On the voter ID issue, it's a constant moving of the goalposts. You might be able to convince them on free voter ID, but not for expanding the numbers and hours of voter registration locations. After all, what kind of lazy bum can't find the time to get to one? Never mind that they can be up to ~250 miles away and only open 9-5, it's gotta be a personal fault. If, by some miracle, they agree on those conditions, then they'll want to require documentation that somehow always turns out to cost a handful of cash. Never mind that that's a de facto poll tax, voting is somehow a privilege, not a right.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but as far as I can tell, almost none of the so-called moderates have really pushed for making voting any easier, just plausible-deniability racist instead of blatantly racist.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

> How would this whip up antisemitism if a person doesn't actually know that these particular people are Jewish?

Antisemitism as we think of it today (Jews control the world economy, are behind socialist revolutions, etc.) is a modern phenomenon (as opposed to the age-old "Jews killed Christ" variety); the term itself was coined by Wilhelm Marr in 1879, the same year he founded the Antisemites League, and the whole complex of ideas associated with it spread over Europe and beyond in the late 19th century, exacerbated by economic crises and leading to pogroms and Nazism. (The Protocols of the Elders of Zion was first published in a Saint Petersburg newspaper Aug. 28–Sept. 7, 1903, and was widely translated after WWI, becoming the antisemites' bible.) The thing is, it proved to be a wildly successful recruiting technique and sure-fire vote-getter (and mob-driver); if Marr had said "It's all the Jews' fault!" and everybody had shrugged and said "Eh, I know some Jews, they're not so bad," it would have gone nowhere and the 20th century would have been very different, but for whatever reason (and obviously there's been shelffuls of books about this) a whole lot of people said "Hey, yeah, that sounds right, let's beat up some Jews!" It's not restricted to Germany or Europe or the West; when I was teaching college in Taiwan in the 1970s, I was horrified to discover that virtually all of my students believed that stuff—they didn't hate Jews, they just believed that Jews were bankers and wanted to control the world the same way they believed that people spoke English in England. They didn't know any Jews and had never been to England, but there are things everybody just knows. So the people behind Trump are using this sure-fire technique the same way they're using racism and misogyny, and they don't have to have big labels saying BAD JEW, they just have to get people used to seeing Jewish names and Jewish faces in connection with the bad stuff that's scaring them. The connection will be made.

How far can it go, here, in this country, where Jews have been pretty well assimilated for decades and there's no organized wholesale antisemitism (as opposed to countless individual instances of petty retail antisemitism)? I don't know, but frankly it scares the shit out of me. The racism and misogyny suck too, but they've been around forever and it's no surprise they're featuring prominently in this GOP campaign. But this? If this gets traction, I'm going to feel very bad about my country. Don't underestimate it, and fight it when you see it.
posted by languagehat at 9:10 AM on November 6, 2016 [75 favorites]

Perhaps of interest to Florida peeps, David Siegel (basically the Florida version of Trump, including the sexual harassment, bankruptcy, contractor-stiffing, reality-show-starring, and obscenely-garish-taste-having) came out in support of his doppleganger -- whom his wife used to date. Also this is the guy who takes credit for getting Bush elected by pressuring his employees to vote Republican.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 9:10 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

RE:the final NBC/WSJ poll above. Hopefully this disgust with Trumpism has lasting effects for Dems.

@RonBrownstein
Worth remembering: no D has won col+ whites in history of polling. In NBC/WSJ @HillaryClinton +7 w/them in four way race, +10 in two way.
posted by chris24 at 9:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

My Republican friend who has a PA cell phone number said she got 4 different calls yesterday from Clinton volunteers (she wasn't mad at all, she's voting for Clinton, just not in a swing state).

That kind of thing plus the reports of "not enough doors to knock" makes me wonder if this is the largest number of people ever to volunteer for a campaign? I feel like 50% of people under 40 I know volunteered with Obama '08 - it will be interesting to compare.
posted by sallybrown at 9:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

re: Satiacum

Personally, I don't really care. It's never going to come down to one vote in the electoral college, and he's allowed to do it. It's a minor inconvenience protest that will nonetheless lead to about a thousand more news stories written about it than if he'd just said those things. That's kinda what protesting is for.

But there's a time-honored tradition of telling minorities of all stripes (but as someone from SD I've seen more of this specific version) to just shut up and vote for the nice white person who represents their interests better, even if in this case 'better' is 'we'll build pipelines through your water supply and give vague attention to the idea of tribal sovereignty' instead of 'we'll completely ignore you and more openly despise you.'. Clinton is far from an ideal candidate on native issues, and he has a right to point that out.

I say this all as a Clinton voter and volunteer. He's actually got a totally legitimate gripe against Clinton. If he was whining about emails, sure, he's an asshole, but he's actually using a position he holds to make a political point about a massively oppressed and ignored population he's a member of. Let's not make him out to be some kind of disenfranchising bastard. There's like, a billion actual cases of that directly happening purely out of racism on a wider scale that are dramatically more problematic and need attention.

I ordinarily try and put a cherry on top at the end of these things, but I dunno? Chill out and let the man actually have a say for once? Don't demand the silence of a Native person because they choose to make a point that embarrasses a political candidate you like? This isn't life and death for the poor disenfranchised white voters in WA (stifles giggle), but it kinda is in a lot of cases for the people he's protesting for.
posted by neonrev at 9:15 AM on November 6, 2016 [29 favorites]

I e-mailed the WA state Democratic party right after Mr. Satiacum's story first broke and heard nothing at all from them. This disappoints me, and I have no idea what to do about it. In his particular case, I wondered if the party could enlist Senator Sanders to talk to him about doing the job he was elected to do or resigning. By refusing to cast his EV for the state winner, he is effectively disenfranchising thousands, if not tens of thousands of voters and that isn't right or fair to the voters.

a) There's no realistic combination of Clinton states where she's dead on 270. There's 268s. There's 272s. There's no realistic 270 here.

b) Even if they did hit 270 exactly by some freak of nature, there are five weeks to replace intransigent electors.

c) Why would they piss off a section of left-leaning people two days before the election by starting an intra-party shitfight over it?

The WA state Democratic party are doing exactly what they should right now. Just keep your mouth shut, see where the dice fall and then assess the situation November 10th.
posted by Talez at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

That kind of thing plus the reports of "not enough doors to knock" makes me wonder if this is the largest number of people ever to volunteer for a campaign?

OFA had 2.2 million volunteers in 2012, which wil be pretty hard to top. That's more than 1.5% of the total number of voters in the 2012 election.
posted by dersins at 9:17 AM on November 6, 2016

Racism and/or misogyny is a helluva drug.

so is propaganda - I can certainly envision people who aren't racist or misogynist in particular, but who believe the lies they hear again and again about Obama having wrecked the country and Clinton being the greatest corrupt criminal of all time, voting Trump because they think the main thing is to keep her out of the White House
posted by thelonius at 9:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Al Gore will be campaigning for Clinton in Colorado Monday in Boulder and Jefferson County with a focus on climate change.

The surrogate advantage Clinton has is amazing. POTUS, FLOTUS, Biden, Bill, Bernie, Warren.
posted by chris24 at 9:19 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

Reminder to anybody with a Zipcar account: from 6pm to 10pm on Tuesday, rentals are FREE, and any reservation that covers that time period before and/or after only charges for outside those times. I've already reserved a car myself, and will be helping with canvassing and transportation for those that need it in northern VA.
posted by zombieflanders at 9:22 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

Racism and/or misogyny is a helluva drug.

so is propaganda - I can certainly envision people who aren't racist or misogynist in particular, but who believe the lies they hear again and again about Obama having wrecked the country and Clinton being the greatest corrupt criminal of all time

Fair enough. Propaganda and partisanship might also explain it. Though I think being susceptible to that contra-factual propaganda probably finds best root in those primed to want to believe because of bigotry. And as mentioned before here, the prime factors in Trump support have been shown in multiple studies to be racism and misogyny (along with authoritarianism.)
posted by chris24 at 9:23 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

I don't mean to minimize the toxic impact in this election of racism and misogyny, but there are also other bad things afoot.
posted by thelonius at 9:25 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Just got a neighborhood canvassing here in philly. I took the pupper out for her afternoon strut and the guy was a few doors down. He was on the phone telling his SO he only had two more to hit. After he got off the phone, I shook his hand and said if one of those is my address (it was) you've got the vote and thanked him for putting in the time. I'm a little bummed I was already out the door and couldn't gift him some leftover Halloween candy.

Thank you again to everyone who donated, put in time, and helped keep it sane.
posted by cmfletcher at 9:25 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

Donald Trump Is Going To Get His Ass Kicked On Tuesday

Of course, none of this should discourage you from voting. If anything, you should be even more excited to vote on Tuesday, to experience the immense satisfaction of flushing Trump down the toilet for good. More important, you could also potentially help to deal Republicans the down-ballot losses they so richly deserve for supporting this tasteless, dictatorial shitbag. That’s where the real suspense is.

posted by kirkaracha at 9:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [16 favorites]

zombieflanders thanks for the heads-up! I found this link #drive the vote for more info.
posted by StrawberryPie at 9:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Clinton will be airing 2 TV ads nationally during Sunday Night Football featuring Republican vets supporting Clinton. Here's one of them (twitter).

The old "I have daughters so now I care about women" trope is tiring AF, but I think these will be effective for that audience.

Anecdotally, Pantsuit Nation (now at 1.23 million members) is filled with posts from women who say they talked their husbands into voting Clinton or whose husbands are registered Republicans enthusiastically voting for Clinton.
posted by sallybrown at 9:27 AM on November 6, 2016 [22 favorites]

Also, "Democratic Strategist Krystal Ball?" We need new writers.

Krystal Ball is fantastic, I'm glad to see her continuing on in politics. She ran for Congress back in 2010 and was smeared by her opponents with pictures from a holiday costume party. Her response:

In a phone interview, Ball said she thinks that female candidates are unfairly held to a different standard. She noted that recently elected Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown had once posed nude in a magazine centerfold, yet it wasn't a big deal in his campaign.

Ball said she disagrees politically with women like Sarah Palin and Delaware candidate Christine O'Donnell, but thinks "they also have been subjected to very unfair, sexist attacks" because of their gender.

"It's sexist and it's wrong, regardless of political party," Ball said in a statement posted on her campaign's Facebook page Wednesday. "And I have a message for any young woman who is thinking about running for office and has ever attended a costume party with her husband or done anything stupid on camera. Run for office. Fight for this country. Don't let this sort of tactic deter you."

posted by galaxy rise at 9:28 AM on November 6, 2016 [26 favorites]

Lyft, Uber, Zipcar, Maven offer Election Day rides
posted by chris24 at 9:28 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

I don't mean to minimize the toxic impact in this election of racism and misogyny, but there are also other bad things afoot.

On one hand, I agree. On the other hand, I'd rather the narrative be focused on these problems to the exclusion of others, because I feel like "yeah but what about this" has been used too often to dilute the discussion down to white male talking points.
posted by Mooski at 9:30 AM on November 6, 2016 [11 favorites]

Hearing about the people sending pizzas to NV early voters stuck in line made me really, really happy yesterday. And thinking about it reminded me of the first time I ever heard of something like that happening: in 2004, when I was a freshman in college, and San Francisco let same-sex couples get married. People started sending the couples waiting in line at City Hall flowers and cake, from all over the country-- I sent flowers, from my dorm room in Lancaster, PA. Sometimes I still think about that-- I don't know who got the flowers, but I hope they're still together, and happy.

Stuff like that is why, for me, the Internet has changed our political discourse for the better, despite the twitter trolls and 4chan brigades. Not only can we see good, important things happen in realtime, but we can participate in them, even from half a world away. The people sending pizzas to NV are going to feel invested in the results of that early voting in a way they wouldn't have, otherwise.

It's becoming increasingly clear that one of the best ways to effect large-scale social change is through one-on-one interactions: when you know and care for someone in a maligned group, it's harder to hate the group they belong to.

The more we talk to each other, the more we reach out, the more empathy we generate and the more progress we can make. We really are stronger together.
posted by nonasuch at 9:31 AM on November 6, 2016 [34 favorites]

> Clinton will be airing 2 TV ads nationally during Sunday Night Football featuring Republican vets supporting Clinton. Here's one of them (twitter).

Please let second video be George W. Bush.
posted by guiseroom at 9:32 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

When I talked to my 70 year old mom this morning the very first thing she mentioned was Pantsuit Nation.
posted by octobersurprise at 9:32 AM on November 6, 2016 [31 favorites]

Trump - who is jetting around NINE states in these last two days, including Minnesota, Virginia, and Wisconsin - has no stops planned in Ohio.

And nor does Pence, whose parallel campaign at least shows some degree of political nous.

almost none of the so-called moderates have really pushed for making voting any easier, just plausible-deniability racist instead of blatantly racist.

I'd agree that they've been pretty quiet on active steps to reform the process, but they at least admit that voter suppression is not politically sustainable, and will help alienate new voters for a generation.
posted by holgate at 9:34 AM on November 6, 2016

Chill out and let the man actually have a say for once? Don't demand the silence of a Native person because they choose to make a point that embarrasses a political candidate you like? This isn't life and death for the poor disenfranchised white voters in WA (stifles giggle), but it kinda is in a lot of cases for the people he's protesting for.

Am I allowed to say no at this point?

Look, as a Clinton supporter, I have spent well over a year being told to feel sympathy for one demographic or another. During the primaries, it was understandable; one of the two candidates was going to win, and we were all on the same side anyway. But after the primaries? After the DNC? After dozens upon dozens of articles trying to explain why a bunch of poor white people were voting for Trump? After listening to tons of my (mostly white, mostly privileged) friends talk about voting for a third party because something something Wikileaks?

This close to the election, when we're talking about a person who is a representative for the Democratic party, I am totally out of fucks to give.

I don't care about him wanting to bring visibility to his cause.Hell, I don't care if Clinton is personally planning to sacrifice his family to the gods of 538 tomorrow evening to guarantee her victory. At this point in the game, I am all out of caring about motivations: the only thing I care about are actions.
posted by steady-state strawberry at 9:35 AM on November 6, 2016 [30 favorites]

After holding on to my mail in ballot for a couple days, I finally had time to go to my local coffeeshop, order an iced mocha and a cookie, and sit down and fill it out, which is my usual routine for celebrating my vote in lieu of getting a sticker or whatever. I had a momentary twinge of sadness at not seeing McMullin listed as an option for president in Washington, but since I hadn't had breakfast yet that may have been for the good so as to not give in to any momentary urge of whimsical illusion of satiety and actually vote for him. After briefly chatting with some of the baristas about the strange mix of fear and inspiration this election has inspired, I made out my sheet for Clinton, walked a block to the local ballot drop box and deposited it to be counted.

With my vote finally sent in for counting, the feeling of relief at my part of the process ending is a little bittersweet. I'll be happy when this is all over, I hope, on Tuesday night, but I'll miss all the daily positivity that has accompanied the opposition to Trump and the support for Clinton, which has been such a welcome push against old ideas of what "normal" can be. For all the hate and fear Trump has stirred up, there has been in even greater measure a recognition of failing and a call for an end to the kind of racism and misogyny Trump embodies.

The near universal support for Clinton among publications that have followed these events provides some witness that reality isn't completely open to distortion, and so much more importantly the many people coming out to share stories and work together in opposition to the tradition of white male rule has provided hope that time is passing. Things aren't settled, the battles aren't over, and there will be no total victory declared on election day or any time soon after, but if this kind of united stand against hate can be maintained, the future looks much brighter than it otherwise could.

If we can show Trump as a symbol of what is wrong with beliefs tied to fear of our neighbors near and far, then there is still reason to believe that the US won't serve as evidence of a failed experiment in liberty and equality, but can instead show these ideals can still be maintained even as they prove difficult to wholly enact in our own present moment. Despite all that has happened this last year and in all the time before, there is still reason to think people can overcome their weaknesses and help make the world at least a little better place each time this spirit of unity stands forth against the will for destruction.
posted by gusottertrout at 9:38 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

Am I allowed to say no at this point?

After dozens upon dozens of articles trying to explain why a bunch of poor white people were voting for Trump? After listening to tons of my (mostly white, mostly privileged) friends talk about voting for a third party because something something Wikileaks?

You totally are, but it kinda makes you a jerk to point to people asking you to feel sympathy for white people not liking Clinton when saying why a Native person doesn't want to vote for Clinton.

Just generally, yeah, I think it's pretty bad to silence a marginalized group for any reason, even personal fatigue.
posted by neonrev at 9:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [14 favorites]

obliquity of the ecliptic: Also, all the Canadians around me are a bit snobby when it comes to US politics and are definitely not interested in hearing me go on about it since it "doesn't affect them."

Oh, obliquity of the ecliptic, please come hang out in my Canadian neighbourhood for some companionship.

The people I know fall into : "This could be the ascent of fascism and we are hopeless to help", "Trump is terrible but the fears and frustrations of his supporters include things that genuinely must be addressed if we don't want fascism", "My family is there so please let there be no violence in the streets after the result", and there is definitely some snobbery, and "i wish it was Bernie", but there is also the sense of having just escaped horror ourselves and then turned to see your friend falling victim (i.e. "we just escaped Harper, who was not as boorish but my goodness his policies were terrible and was escalating the anti-immigrant and racist tone" )

Also, the janitor at the middle high school where I fence told us he has never heard middle schoolers talk about an election so much. He says they tell him their thoughts about it, and their worries about what trump means. This is also reflected among the teens at the fencing club, who discuss all the lastest US election news every time we fence and are all planning to stay up and watch.

Sign of the times: they are also talking about it with Americans during online gaming and reporting what they are hearing, some of which shocks them, but really, the ability to talk directly through the games to people around the world is fascinating.
posted by chapps at 9:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [11 favorites]

I ordinarily try and put a cherry on top at the end of these things, but I dunno? Chill out and let the man actually have a say for once? Don't demand the silence of a Native person because they choose to make a point that embarrasses a political candidate you like? This isn't life and death for the poor disenfranchised white voters in WA (stifles giggle), but it kinda is in a lot of cases for the people he's protesting for.

How about: he was chosen by the party to represent the voters of the party in WA state in the Electoral College, and he should very well do that job, and he can shout all he wants from every rooftop about whatever point he wants to make, but he should do the fucking job. And how about no voter should be disenfranchised, ever, even for the vanity of a Bernie or Buster.

You totally are, but it kinda makes you a jerk to point to people asking you to feel sympathy for white people not liking Clinton when saying why a Native person doesn't want to vote for Clinton.

Also, being smug isn't a good look, so between that quote and your giggling, maybe try to post with some respect for other people on MetaFilter.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 9:43 AM on November 6, 2016 [37 favorites]

Upstate NY is regressive as fuck and likes its white male privilege a LOT.

IME republicans in NYS tend to be pretty deplorable, especialily on race.

Honestly I think there are a lot of regressive voters state-wide. NYC likes to pretend that upstate is a different country, but it wasn't upstate that twice elected Trump surrogate and early endorser (and all-around jackass) Giuliani.

It's too bad that it looks like Teachout will lose NY-19. I really thought this insane red-baiting ad complete with Birkenstocks as a symbol of communism had the smell of desperation on it.
posted by enn at 9:44 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand: An Anxious Nominee Seeks Assurance

In the final days of the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump’s candidacy is a jarring split screen: the choreographed show of calm and confidence orchestrated by his staff, and the neediness and vulnerability of a once-boastful candidate now uncertain of victory.

On the surface, there is the semblance of stability that is robbing Hillary Clinton of her most potent weapon: Mr. Trump’s self-sabotaging eruptions, which have repeatedly undermined his candidacy. Underneath that veneer, turbulence still reigns, making it difficult for him to overcome all of the obstacles blocking his path to the White House.

"Truly a sight to behold. A man beaten. The once great champ, now, a study in moppishness. No longer the victory hungry stallion we've raced so many times before, but a pathetic, washed up, aged ex-champion."
posted by kirkaracha at 9:44 AM on November 6, 2016 [17 favorites]

There's something really enjoyable about people pointing out the sins of white Bernie fans whilst ignoring the fact that it will have zero impact on anything at all and that he's actually a Native dude with an actual point that mysteriously never gets mentioned.
posted by neonrev at 9:45 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

My partner is as liberal as you get, and he voted for Giuliani twice. Our neighborhood was a hellhole before that. It was a different time.
posted by roomthreeseventeen at 9:46 AM on November 6, 2016

Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand

Enlightening description of the Trump data operation:
And they know that his chances of winning the election are iffy. But they maintain that there is unseen money and muscle behind his political operation — and a level of sophistication that outsiders, and people who have run traditional campaigns, cannot fully appreciate.

At times, however, that is hard to detect. Over a cheeseburger, fried calamari and an “Ivanka Salad” at the Trump Grill in the basement of Trump Tower last week, several aides flipped open a laptop and loaded the popular website 270towin.com, which allows users to create their own winning electoral maps.

For 10 minutes, they clicked through the country, putting Democratic-leaning states won by Mr. Obama four years ago, like New Mexico and Colorado, into Mr. Trump’s column.

Their analysis seemed more atmospheric than scientific.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:46 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

@Redistrict
87% of House Republicans are white men vs. 43% of House Dems. After election, will likely be 88% to 41%.

@Redistrict
For context, only about 33% of the eligible American electorate are non-Hispanic white men.

538: House Democrats Are Getting More Diverse. Republicans Aren’t.
posted by chris24 at 9:46 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

Just got a neighborhood canvassing here

It's great, isn't it? I was out there, though that was not me. I had not canvassed since eight years ago, but obviously we just can't mess around, so I got out there to do my little part. Worry not about the candy. Depending on the office, the guy probably had access to candy (and fruit, muffins) at the staging place.

Even after having seen upteen mefites telling us all to go canvas, that it is not only a good thing to do, but also makes you feel good, I still was dreading it. And I'm not antisocial in the slightest. Just lazy on the weekends sometimes. But it was really great.

You meet other people who are supporting.
You see lots of other people out knocking doors while you're doing it.
You're likely contacting dems and just getting them to commit to vote, making sure they have a plan and know where their polling place is.
You see lots of other people out knocking doors after you've done it.
You get exercise.
You feel better because you're not solely on here reading and replying.

So here's yet another mefite telling you to get out there and canvas!
posted by cashman at 9:48 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

A fascinating must read: America on the Edge by Daniel Dale - an outsider's perspective on what has been going on in our election at the grounds-eye level

"When you’re a Canadian reporter in America, you’re not ferried around on a campaign plane and deposited in a media pen. Instead, you — I — crank up the Blue Rodeo, guzzle a gas station Slurpee for the late-night sugar, and drive. Which means you have less access to insiders but more access to outsiders."
posted by madamjujujive at 9:48 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

My partner is as liberal as you get, and he voted for Giuliani twice.

It definitely gets more liberal than that.
posted by enn at 9:49 AM on November 6, 2016 [62 favorites]

How about: he was chosen by the party to represent the voters of the party in WA state in the Electoral College, and he should very well do that job, and he can shout all he wants from every rooftop about whatever point he wants to make, but he should do the fucking job. And how about no voter should be disenfranchised, ever, even for the vanity of a Bernie or Buster.

This is a really difficult thing because traditionally a lot of groups have had their oppression continued in part by their allies asking them to wait for a better time.

The Democratic party, for better or worse, (but IMHO much much better) is a big tent party that doesn't operate in a lockstep. Getting pissy about mild forms of protest that, in all honesty, won't make a difference, and even if they did make a difference could be fixed before the practical consequences matter? What exactly will it accomplish for the delegate being technically correct apart from an intangible sense of full enfranchisement?
posted by Talez at 9:49 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand: An Anxious Nominee Seeks Assurance

"As the aides agonized over which words to feed into the teleprompter, they become so engrossed that a hot light set up next to the machine caused Mr. Bannon’s Kuhl hiking pants to begin smoldering.

“I think my pant leg is on fire,” he said after noticing the acrid smell."

You have absolutely got to be shitting me.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:50 AM on November 6, 2016 [65 favorites]

This isn't life and death for the poor disenfranchised white voters in WA (stifles giggle), but it kinda is in a lot of cases for the people he's protesting for.

He's not just disenfranchising white people.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:54 AM on November 6, 2016 [38 favorites]

Incredible anecdote from the latest NYT story that everyone's posting:

As the aides agonized over which words to feed into the teleprompter, they become so engrossed that a hot light set up next to the machine caused Mr. Bannon’s Kuhl hiking pants to begin smoldering.

“I think my pant leg is on fire,” he said after noticing the acrid smell.

Liar, liar...
posted by acidic at 9:56 AM on November 6, 2016 [21 favorites]

Inside Donald Trump’s Last Stand: An Anxious Nominee Seeks Assurance

The most interesting sentence in that article:

Aides to Mr. Trump have finally wrested away the Twitter account that he used to colorfully — and often counterproductively — savage his rivals.

It confirms what I've suspected for a couple of weeks. Trump had his Twitter account taken away from him for the sake of the campaign.
posted by Talez at 9:57 AM on November 6, 2016 [32 favorites]

I say this all as a Clinton voter and volunteer. He's actually got a totally legitimate gripe against Clinton.

Then maybe he shouldn't have pledged himself to vote for her by accepting his place on the slate? I mean, this is not ethical rocket science. You shouldn't freely, of your own volition, and facing no negative consequences for refusal, publicly pledge to do something you don't intend to do.

I think it's pretty bad to silence a marginalized group for any reason, even personal fatigue.

It's not silencing. He can say whatever the hell he wants to, and he can publicly refuse to vote for her by publicly and loudly declining his place on the slate. It's honoring the commitment that you have publicly made, or dishonoring yourself by going back on it.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:57 AM on November 6, 2016 [53 favorites]

So many whoa moments in that NYT piece, it's almost the template for how a losing campaign starts to fragment as everybody seeks to absolve themselves of blame: Ivanka defending the brand over the campaign, Jared Kushner as Trump-talker, "taking away Twitter", etc.

Mr. Trump, who does not use a computer, rails against the campaign’s expenditure of tens of millions on digital ads, skeptical that spots he never sees could have any effect.

Brad Parscale (a web design person who's pretending to be a digital data person) may have done a Trump on Trump.
posted by holgate at 9:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

My biggest problem with the faithless elector scenario is that there were a number of electors who don't strongly support their party's candidate. One elector going rogue as a form of legit protest might be fine, depending on circumstances, but if that sparks a larger elector rebellion things could get ugly.
posted by gusottertrout at 10:01 AM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

Plug for my boo's awesome HRC/Janet Jackson mashup tee design
posted by Senor Cardgage at 10:02 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

This isn't life and death for the poor disenfranchised white voters in WA (stifles giggle), but it kinda is in a lot of cases for the people he's protesting for.

12.5 % of Washingtonians are Latinx.
4% are African American
2.6% are Native American, Alaskan Native, or Hawaiian Native

If even one of those folks votes for Clinton, he is disenfranchising that person as well. So, giggle away if you must, but know that your giggle is a pretty dickish one.
posted by dersins at 10:04 AM on November 6, 2016 [35 favorites]

Hey, Native American protestor! How dare you not honor your contract with us! It's your duty as an American to honor all contracts, especially those made with the United States and its political parties. Don't you know we're on your side?
posted by chortly at 10:04 AM on November 6, 2016 [19 favorites]

Brad Parscale (a web design person who's pretending to be a digital data person) may have done a Trump on Trump.

Parscale was funneling millions in digital ads straight to Bannon's Breitbart. They've basically bilked the donors for everything. Donny may come out even given how much of the campaign he's plunged into his own properties but Bannon is making out like a bandit.
posted by Talez at 10:04 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Uses the term "butternut turd." A++ Would read again.

*Looks whistfully at the butternut squash on the counter that's for tonight's dinner*

*Pulls out ledger book and writes "winter vegetables" under a column labelled "Things tainted by the US election"*
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:04 AM on November 6, 2016 [47 favorites]

I really can't get over that Trump's actual data operation is exactly the same as mine, literally just clicking around on 270towin.com.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:04 AM on November 6, 2016 [20 favorites]

No one who actually gives a shit should be fighting about the ethics of a faithless elector on metafilter right now. There is too much productive work to do. The fight will still be there to join on Wednesday, if you find you still care.

You know, I'm canvassing later today and on election day. I already voted absentee. Clinton is almost guaranteed a victory. This is my one day off work this week. I'm going to choose to use it to defend a guy defending native rights for an hour or two on the internet. It's ludicrous to suggest that caring about one thing means stopping caring about the rest. The fight doesn't go away, it's always here. Is there any chance that anyone reading a word of this fight is going to decide to not vote for Clinton?

It's not silencing. He can say whatever the hell he wants to, and he can publicly refuse to vote for her by publicly and loudly declining his place on the slate. It's honoring the commitment that you have publicly made, or dishonoring yourself by going back on it.

The only reason anyone is listening is because he is refusing to vote for Clinton. There is not a chance in hell we'd be discussing Native issues right now if he wasn't doing what he's doing. There is no chance he will actually effect the election, and a chance he won't even be the elector anyway. But right now he's just one voice for a group that is both marginalized and ignored at the same time that it is engaged in the largest world-wide show of Native solidarity the planet has ever seen.

This is the electoral math equivalent of getting real pissed off about BLM protestors on the highway. You're still gonna get to work, just a little later than you'd like.
posted by neonrev at 10:05 AM on November 6, 2016 [23 favorites]

Brad Parscale (a web design person who's pretending to be a digital data person) may have done a Trump on Trump.

I really love this. We know a bit about Parscale from the Bloomberg profile:

He hustled consulting gigs, going door to door and cold-calling local businesses. “My first year, I tapped on shoulders in a bookstore to get my first customers, people who were buying web books, and asked if they needed help,” he says. One day in 2010, the phone rang. It was Kathy Kaye, the new head of Trump International Realty. “She said, ‘Would you like to bid on building the Trump website?’ ” Parscale recalls. “I said yeah. I bid $10,000 on the first website. I think they were shocked how cheap it was. Next thing I know, I’m talking to Ivanka. So they signed a contract with me, and I wrote the website by myself. I told ’em I’d give all the money back if they didn’t like it.”

The guy's got hustle, and I have no idea if he's good at what he does, but six years ago he was building real estate websites, and today, he's managing millions and millions of dollars worth of a digital campaign operation, including many ads that are clearly preaching to the choir. I'm all for recognizing good people whatever their background, but this guy has essentially no political experience, and it says a great deal about Trump's business sense that he would put him in charge.
posted by zachlipton at 10:06 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

*Pulls out ledger book and writes "winter vegetables" under a column labelled "Things tainted by the US election"*

Nope. Completely offset by this.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:07 AM on November 6, 2016 [26 favorites]

The Democratic party, for better or worse, (but IMHO much much better) is a big tent party that doesn't operate in a lockstep. Getting pissy about mild forms of protest that, in all honesty, won't make a difference, and even if they did make a difference could be fixed before the practical consequences matter? What exactly will it accomplish for the delegate be technically correct apart from an intangible sense of full enfranchisement?

It achieves the goal of not being morally the same as going around the back and torching people's votes.
posted by jaduncan at 10:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

And [Trump] is struggling to suppress his bottomless need for attention. As he stood next to the breakfast buffet at his golf club in Doral, Fla., eyeing a tray of pork sausages, he sought to convey restraint

Love it!
posted by Coventry at 10:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

There is not a chance in hell we'd be discussing Native issues right now if he wasn't doing what he's doing.

That's simply not true. The folks at Standing Rock protesting DAPL are doing a much better--and much more important--job of this right now.
posted by dersins at 10:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [54 favorites]

Field reports coming in. We know the dem side is out doing final canvas rounds on foot to specify Hillary voters, and this list will be the final Monday/Tuesday all-hands turnout list. For example, I spent a few hours in a NoVA neighborhood, and had been one of 150 people in the area just that day, and that was just part of a separate union effort. We were working off an already-narrowed list and it's late in the game; mostly we didn't talk to people but we left notes on doors with election day poll hours and "vote no on issue 1" (the Right to Work amendment). As we were leaving we saw a van full of Hillary campaign people show up to the same neighborhood to work their own lists.

But on the R side? Based on recent reports from folks I know, who are deployed in Florida, Iowa, Virginia, New Hampshire, we're only seeing Trump folks doing visibility things, holding signs on bridges and street corners. We went under a freeway overpass that had a big Trump sign and a jumping and waving family, including kids. Anything on a bridge is almost certainly unsanctioned (authorities don't like it). I'm wondering if all of this "visibility work" in swing states is actually just Trump supporters who've been given no direction and are just burning energy wholesale.

We weren't waving signs, but I know the neighbors saw us walking the neighborhood, and would have seen others like us and maybe checked out what notes we left or chatted to their neighbor about "there were some people here," so canvassing has its own aspect of visibility.

The ground game seems to be going uncontested.

But there's still the final sprint through apathy and voter suppression obstacles.
posted by zennie at 10:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

If he gets his wish and Trump wins maybe they can name the pipeline after him.
posted by Artw at 10:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

If even one of those folks votes for Clinton, he is disenfranchising that person as well. So, giggle away if you must, but know that your giggle is a pretty dickish one.

"But there are people of color in Washington too!" is a pretty pathetic argument to make in response to "this smacks of white people telling people of color to stop being inconvenient."
posted by hoyland at 10:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Clinton is almost guaranteed a victory.

I agree, but what about the downballot races? The Senate is in play, for instance. If your Senate seat is not, phonebanking into a state where it is might be more productive than canvassing.
posted by Coventry at 10:12 AM on November 6, 2016

I would just like to point out that to my reasonably informed impression a vast majority of Native Americans is voting for Clinton. Many NA leaders have endorsed her.
posted by spitbull at 10:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

Seriously, I don't know what I think of the guy, but I know what I think of Metafilter's response and I'm not impressed.
posted by hoyland at 10:13 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

but I know what I think of Metafilter's response and I'm not impressed

You'll have to be clearer because there's people on both sides of the issue here.
posted by Talez at 10:15 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

That's simply not true. The folks at Standing Rock protesting DAPL are doing a much better--and much more important--job of this right now.

I meant we meaning here on metafilter. Not that it means anything real, but I want it to be in the conversation. The Federal gov't is largely responsible for interacting with Tribes, which I guess I have to remind people are a unique sort of sovereign inside of the US and very complicated, and I really want us to talk about them more because they are an amazing force against many of the environmental and energy policies I also have a problem with. Also, you know, it's federal laws and treaties and stuff.

I really didn't think "Don't tell a Native dude to sit down and shut up" would be such a contentious issue here.
posted by neonrev at 10:15 AM on November 6, 2016 [10 favorites]

A new election post is up (though for ease of tracking, you may want to continue with any current ongoing disagreements on this thread).

Two sleeps left till the vote and count; it's going to be a long few days. Pace yourself; sleep, water, good nutrition, own time, exercise, non-election activities, whatever puts your mind at rest.
posted by Wordshore at 10:16 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

The Senate is in play, for instance. If your Senate seat is not, phonebanking into a state where it is might be more productive than canvassing.
This makes sense to me. I was planning to canvass in Northern Virginia today, but given what I'm hearing about how many people are out, I think I can do more good making calls from home into Ohio and Florida and wherever else the phonebank directs me.
posted by une_heure_pleine at 10:16 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

This is a great test case on the limits of partisanship here. Generally there has been little allowance for protests, complaints, or arguments from the left against HRC during the last month or two. Will a Native American doing no harm to anyone in order to draw a little bit more attention to NA issues finally be the one case where Clinton partisans acknowledge a space for protest from the left during the campaign season?

It would appear not...
posted by chortly at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

What exactly will it accomplish for the delegate be technically correct apart from an intangible sense of full enfranchisement?

The degree to which this could be used to justify simply dismissing various vote counting irregularities is wince inducing.
posted by jaduncan at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

Are you going for McMuffin, corb? Given that you live in an obscenely safe D state.

Yeah, I voted McMullin - I want my vote to read "I would have voted R if your candidate wasn't a troglodyte" to the WA GOP.
posted by corb at 10:18 AM on November 6, 2016 [27 favorites]

I would just like to point out that to my reasonably informed impression the vast majority of Native Americans are voting for Clinton. Many NA leaders have endorsed her.

Oh, true to my experience too, and is true of both the people who are at or were at DAPL. The one of them at DAPL has posted supportive stuff about this guy. It's not black and white for them. But one voice is not the end of days. And there's a chance he won't be the elector when it matters.
posted by neonrev at 10:19 AM on November 6, 2016

I really didn't think "Don't tell a Native dude to sit down and shut up" would be such a contentious issue here.

They could just be confused because it's also the Trump campaign's message and we've been fighting against that for months.
posted by Talez at 10:19 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

In his column on 538 discussing Nevada early voting Harry Enton alludes to the fact that pollsters have a hard time reaching Hispanic voters. This could result in a significant error on Clinton's favor.
posted by humanfont at 10:19 AM on November 6, 2016

This is a great test case on the limits of partisanship here. Generally there has been little allowance for protests, complaints, or arguments from the left against HRC during the last month or two.

It isn't a protest against HRC only. It's a willingness to intentionally distort an election result. That doesn't have a great history, no matter what view I have on the justifications for doing so.
posted by jaduncan at 10:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [20 favorites]

Faithless electors disenfranchise tens of thousands of voters in their states through their actions. If this guy was setting ballots on fire would you still be like "well, he's making important points though"
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [43 favorites]

It's one day before an election that has many people terrified. I think let's cut everyone on all sides a break for being tense and loaded for bear.

One faithless elector is not a big deal, irrespective of his motives. He doesn't speak for Native America but he speaks as a Native American, and that is a place of understandable dissent.
posted by spitbull at 10:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Will a Native American doing no harm to anyone in order to draw a little bit more attention to NA issues finally be the one case where Clinton partisans acknowledge a space for protest from the left during the campaign season?

When the mechanism by which he is choosing to do this disenfranchises 1/12th of Washington state? No, that is not a form of protest I have any sympathy for whatsoever.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 10:21 AM on November 6, 2016 [33 favorites]

The degree to which this could be used to justify simply dismissing various vote counting irregularities is wince inducing.

In Australia, where absolutely everyone votes, the AEC has gotten it down to a science knowing if mistakes or voting irregularities have affected the results. Sometimes the mistakes result in do-overs but in general, we don't rerun entire elections because some elderly person with mild Alzheimers voted twice by mistake. A perfectly enfranchised electorate is a myth.
posted by Talez at 10:22 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

Nope. Completely offset by this.

Well that just went out to everyone I know.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 10:23 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't really know why we'd bother even having an electoral college if not to introduce this exact kind of dissent.

If the issue is that one guy can ignore the votes of thousands, sure, lets get rid of the electoral college. All for it as far as I know. But if we're gonna have this dumb system, I don't mind if it very rarely gets used for political protest. This is legitimate political protest occurring in a system that allows him to do this. There's a chance they can replace him.
posted by neonrev at 10:25 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

With all due respect, as a queer Washintonian with more than a couple trans friends, and Jewish friends, and who's heard trump supporters literally talk about murdering people if they think the election is rigged, and sure as heck isn't going to sit by and hide in my room if things get ugly... this is damned well a matter of life or death. I'm sorry it would be nice if the world were happy and fluffy and nice and everything were guaranteed to turn out fine. It's not.
posted by Zalzidrax at 10:26 AM on November 6, 2016 [35 favorites]

"Hold the door!" George R.R. Martin surprised volunteers in Santa Fe today to encourage early voting.

It occurred to me that GRRM's involvement means that someone we like is going to die tragically and unexpectedly, but that's already happened, what, 53 times this year?

GRRM's involvement probably means that the end of this election season will never come.
posted by srboisvert at 10:31 AM on November 6, 2016 [23 favorites]

With all due respect, as a queer Washintonian with more than a couple trans friends, and Jewish friends, and who's heard trump supporters literally talk about murdering people if they think the election is rigged, and sure as heck isn't going to sit by and hide in my room if things get ugly... this is damned well a matter of life or death.

I don't question your assertion but I do question how it goes from "faithless elector protesting" to "Trump supporters think the election is rigged".
posted by Talez at 10:32 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

I really didn't think "Don't tell a Native dude to sit down and shut up" would be such a contentious issue here.

To paraphrase an old adage, if you say something that's uncontroversial and most people here could agree with, but it causes a shitstorm, maybe you're the problem.
posted by Special Agent Dale Cooper at 10:33 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

I don't really know why we'd bother even having an electoral college if not to introduce this exact kind of dissent.

That's implying that the electoral college in 2016 is something that has actively been maintained as a cherished part of American democracy as opposed to an 18th century folly that's falling to pieces but has a historic preservation order slapped on it.

Faithless electors of any kind are making it about them and not whatever positions or beliefs they advocate, because they're imposing subjective agency on a system that has systematically adopted norms that moved away from concentrating that power. Those norms are good ones.
posted by holgate at 10:33 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

I've never done this before. If we're arguing about one thing here and there's a new election thread, do we carry it over right away or do we keep it going here?

Cause I don't want to stop this, but I also don't want to shit-up the last thread before the election with this weirdness.

But anyway;

With all due respect, as a queer Washintonian with more than a couple trans friends, and Jewish friends, and who's heard trump supporters literally talk about murdering people if they think the election is rigged, and sure as heck isn't going to sit by and hide in my room if things get ugly... this is damned well a matter of life or death. I'm sorry it would be nice if the world were happy and fluffy and nice and everything were guaranteed to turn out fine. It's not.

You can replace the words "queer Washingtonian" with "Communist Dakotan" and I could write the same paragraph. I've had a single death threat so far. If I still lived there I'd have more I'm sure.
Take comfort in polling data and maths. Find a way that Trump can win because of this guy that isn't nutso. He's an incredibly minor spoiler creating a huge fuss. Maybe just listen to the dude? Maybe he's got a point? I dunno.
posted by neonrev at 10:35 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

I don't question your assertion but I do question how it goes from "faithless elector protesting" to "Trump supporters think the election is rigged".

"They just throw away your votes. This time it was public. It's a rigged system."

Public trust in fair elections is one of the most important parts of democratic legitimacy.
posted by jaduncan at 10:36 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

I don't really know why we'd bother even having an electoral college if not to introduce this exact kind of dissent.

There shouldn't be an electoral college.
posted by Artw at 10:38 AM on November 6, 2016 [21 favorites]

> I've never done this before. If we're arguing about one thing here and there's a new election thread, do we carry it over right away or do we keep it going here?

Cause I don't want to stop this, but I also don't want to shit-up the last thread before the election with this weirdness.

I would vote for keeping it going here; those interested in the discussion (and it is an interesting one for sure) will see it in their Recent Activity and can join in, but it would probably be best to let the new thread develop its own momentum. Your call, obviously.
posted by languagehat at 10:38 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

My fear is that any possible thing that casts doubt on the election is going to be used. Even if it doesn't make any sense.

The chance this guy's vote will make a difference is not that big. But not that big a chance of a catastrophic outcome is still very, very bad.
posted by Zalzidrax at 10:39 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

The powerful intertribal Alaska Federation of Natives endorsed Hillary Clinton 2 weeks back, their first ever presidential endorsement.
posted by spitbull at 10:39 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

Public trust in fair elections is one of the most important parts of democratic legitimacy.

The elections were fair. The candidate you voted for had the representatives they put forward to be elected sent to the electoral college. The representative is just doing something you don't like. By that measure the entire political system is invalid.
posted by Talez at 10:40 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

If he gets his wish and Trump wins maybe they can name the pipeline after him.

There are good arguments on both sides of this divide about the faithless elector, but this is really uncalled for and a low blow given his explicit reason for being a faithless elector, and it makes me really sad to see it here.
posted by sallybrown at 10:40 AM on November 6, 2016 [14 favorites]

I mean, Trump supporters don't mind if the system is rigged in favor of their God Emperor, right? If a Trump elector were to be talking like this, sure, that person would probably be risking their own life and increasing the risk of violence for everyone. But a Clinton elector? They'll probably see this as either 1) a righteous fight against the corrupt establishment, 2) evidence of the Left's incompetence/political correctness GONE MAD or 3) hilarious lulz.
posted by overglow at 10:42 AM on November 6, 2016

It's from last week, but it didn't get a lot of attention: Donald Trump believes the United States can get $1 trillion in new roads — for free

The idea is straightforward enough. Trump would push Congress to authorize $137 billion in tax credits for construction companies looking to build new toll roads, toll bridges or any other sort of infrastructure project that has a revenue stream attached to it. (The revenue is critical, in that it generates a return to the private builder of the project.)

The advisers behind the plan, Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, calculate that the tax credits would leverage $167 billion in investment by the companies that receive them, who would in turn borrow money on the private market to finance up to $1 trillion in total spending. That spending, then, would create jobs, with wages that would be taxed, and corporate profits, which also would be taxed.

Ross and Navarro calculate the added tax revenue would be enough to pay for the total cost of the tax credits, which means the overall cost to the government would be . . . nothing. They contrast that to Democrat Hillary Clinton's infrastructure plan, which is funded in part by business tax increases.

A trillion dollars of new toll roads in private hands, how could that go wrong? The math doesn't add up, and depending on how these deals are structured, it's way too easy for the private operators to either reap a huge windfall from people who just want to drive down the street or go broke when it turns out they massively overstated demand for their stupid toll road to their investors.

The crazy thing is that most big private toll road projects have failed in the US, along with countries like Spain and Australia. The investors Trump wants to raise a trillion dollars from, they just might ask why these projects will be different from all the rest before they open their wallets.

We could also ask why a campaign that's built on a populist revolt and runs ads demonizing big banks wants to literally hand control of the nation's roads to the same "global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities." Or more importantly, why the voters who are so determined to show the "global power structure" who's boss don't realize that Trump wants to hand those same people all our roads.
posted by zachlipton at 10:43 AM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

1) a righteous fight against the corrupt establishment

Yep, and then I'm worried someone's going to see that as inspiration to continue that righteous fight with guns.
posted by Zalzidrax at 10:44 AM on November 6, 2016

By the way, even before the caucus, the leaders of the largest tribal nations *in Washington State* also endorsed Clinton, as have the Pueblo nations, the Navajo Nation, most N and S Dakota tribes, and many others.
posted by spitbull at 10:45 AM on November 6, 2016 [7 favorites]

Zalzidrax, that totally makes sense.
posted by overglow at 10:46 AM on November 6, 2016

The elections were fair. The candidate you voted for had the representatives they put forward to be elected sent to the electoral college. The representative is just doing something you don't like. By that measure the entire political system is invalid.

I would indeed see faithless electors as a fundamental bug left over from a time before modern communication and the ability to directly pass on the result. The elector isn't on the ballot, and nobody seriously chooses to vote for the elector's judgement (or, indeed, even knows who they are). The elector therefore doesn't have the democratic mandate to interfere that you imply.
posted by jaduncan at 10:47 AM on November 6, 2016 [20 favorites]

When the mechanism by which he is choosing to do this disenfranchises 1/11th of Washington state? No, that is not a form of protest I have any sympathy for whatsoever.

Which 1/11th is he disenfranchising? If you want to be rationalist about it, there is virtually no scenario, and none with more than a 10^-9 chance of happening, where anyone's desired electoral outcome is affected. The voters are already disenfranchised by the existence of the electoral college. What preserves the franchise is when the outcomes reflect the vote intention. That is virtually certain to happen here. So no one is disenfranchised in any of the fundamental democratic ways we care about, except for contractarian and literalist readings that somehow think that the electoral college has meaning in and of itself.

More importantly, those arguing against this guy should really ask themselves why they care enough to spend their precious seconds opposing this violation, of all the violations in the world. Even if you are fully convinced that this protestor, or someone from BLM say, is totally wrong and violating the rules of democracy, is that really where you want to make your intervention? To complain about one of the most abused subgroups in all of US history making his protest in a wrong way? To wrack your brains for all the comparably oppressed groups who might, under some very unlikely scenario, might somehow possibly be hurt by this? To make a stand on pure principle, a principle that seems to receive far less attention when it is a faithless Trump elector? This -- not the feelings, but actually taking action because what you've read is so wrong you can't let it stand -- in order to attack a Native American protestor on behalf of some conceptually round-about principle or practically unlikely outcome -- this is what partisanship is.
posted by chortly at 10:48 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

mcstayinskool: Nope. Completely offset by this.

Dinner is hereby redeemed, and I have constructed a small election/squash-themed tableau as a tribute to the restorative powers of that particular Vine.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:48 AM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

I don't think anyone is saying that most Natives are against Clinton. I don't know any who aren't for her. I do know some who have serious reservations about the Federal Gov't in general, and about Clinton specifically, always because of actual voting history and policy. This is their lives. They know what they are talking about. Theirs is an important voice, and one that is not so often heard.

I don't think a single guy refusing to vote for Clinton is going to increase the level of violence on election day one iota. They really don't give a shit about him, and they don't really need much of a reason to be violent besides Trump not winning. Consider how much the average Trump voter cares about the opinion of one Native guy in Washington.
posted by neonrev at 10:51 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

David Archambault, the inspiring Chairman of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation, has endorsed Clinton.
posted by spitbull at 10:52 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

If you're upset that there's a potential faithless elector, I'd like to suggest you direct your ire not at the faithless elector but at the people who chose said elector. A lot of people here were chortling this summer over the possibility Trump's incompetent machine might have been picking electors that would not support him at the convention.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 10:56 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

> GRRM's involvement probably means that the end of this election season will never come.

The ending of the whole thing is still being written. Book & TV versions will end up being dramatically different for several reasons. Stay tuned!
posted by flug at 10:56 AM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

That NY Times article is just sad.

Like depressingly sad in how it portrays how juvenile and ignorant Trump is of how politics works, how governing works, how voting works.

And how woefully delusioned he is about winning. The more I read about his behavior, the more I see it as an ignorant bafoon who is easily swindled by those who know how to play his buttons. Like he is a genuinely terible human being to partake in these business ventures and believe that exploitation is an appropriate way to go through live. But he is just as easily exploited by those close to him.

It took him giving up his twitter account to understand that him not tweeting would keep things on message?

I hope he reads this article and goes into a rage realizing how weak he appears in it.

And I do hope the defeat is so complete, so unquestionable, that he concedes Tuesday night, and watches everything disappear in front of him. And then he gets on twitter and gets himself banned.
posted by mrzarquon at 10:58 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

If you're upset that there's a potential faithless elector, I'd like to suggest you direct your ire not at the faithless elector but at the people who chose said elector.

The can't-see-the-forest-for-the-trees caucusgoers who turned the Washington state legislative district caucus that I attended this spring into a complete shitshow?
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 11:01 AM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

To be fair it can be hard to see the forest for the trees in western Washington State.
posted by spitbull at 11:05 AM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

We forgot to link the SNL cold open:

"Mr. Trump, everyone can see your tweets."
"Really? And I'm still in this thing. America, you must really hate this lady"

"Has the whole world gone crazy? Donald Trump has singlehandedly destroyed everything we Americans hold dear. Kindness. Decency. Tic Tacs. Skittles. Taco Bowls. Father-daughter dances. Buses. Bright red hats. The word ‘great.’ The color orange. Men."

All the pain caused by this election can't be undone with a romp through Times Square though, and it's kind of gross for them to suggest otherwise.
posted by zachlipton at 11:06 AM on November 6, 2016 [13 favorites]

Perhaps of interest to Florida peeps, David Siegel (basically the Florida version of Trump, including the sexual harassment, bankruptcy, contractor-stiffing, reality-show-starring, and obscenely-garish-taste-having) came out in support of his doppleganger -- whom his wife used to date.

If by chance any of you haven't seen the documentary about the Siegels "Queen of Versailles" it truly is essential watching for insight into the world of people like Trump. The shit they say without a single blink of conscience is amazing.
posted by Rumple at 11:08 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Danny Concannon is curious as to why we're so bumfuzzled that we don't have a link to the NEW ELECTION THREAD! in here yet.
posted by neonrev at 11:11 AM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Not knowing about the new thread meant I got to miss at least a half hour of senseless millennial bashing, so I'm ok with that.
posted by zachlipton at 11:20 AM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

I share with you good people that I just went and watched Schoolhouse Rock's Electoral College video. Have to admit it wasn't as helpful as Conjunction Junction.
posted by eggkeeper at 11:23 AM on November 6, 2016

I am not listing NA endorsers of Clinton as a criticism of Mr. Satiacum's right to protest, but rather to make sure the conversation doesn't assume a conflict between Clinton and Native America that does not conform to the political reality. Like all Americans, Native Americans hold diverse opinions and do not think as one.

Argh, I somehow missed this comment before and can't support it enough. The Native community is generally behind whichever democrat is on the slate, and Clinton isn't some Indian hatin' bigot either. It's quite complicated. I now remember one Trumper Native person I know. Yeah, it's weird.

There's simply legitimate concerns that can and should be discussed both now and after the election. I support this guy fully in his personal protest. If you're feeling like your vote might not count because of it, I guess I'm sorry. I simply don't care that much about your concerns, the same way you don't care about his concerns that much. There's also the much ignored element of the chance that he will be replaced and none of this actually matters, but there's a native man speaking out. Politics on both sides demand he be quieted. This is the reality of things. We vote for people, not our ideals. You can't praise her pragmatism and ignore the fact that it is politically expedient to ignore Native people. That's just the reality of electoral maths. Let's try not to fall into it so willingly.
posted by neonrev at 11:26 AM on November 6, 2016

I now remember one Trumper Native person I know.

I've met Trumpist hispanics. I was out canvassing, though, so it's possible they were trying to troll me.
posted by Coventry at 11:35 AM on November 6, 2016

There is some space there between this specific individual's legitimate grievance due to his being Native American and the interest of arguing against faithless electors as reasonable. The same kind of individual circumstance isn't the sole measure of value here as other electors without that same background could also become faithless. Standing up for this specific individual's choice makes it difficult to stand against other's choices without endless complication in trying to define legitimacy of values. It isn't only protests we might agree with that are the cause of faithless electors, so the space for argument needn't necessarily be confined to the value in this one man's choice as the sum total of the issue. It's more complicated than that.
posted by gusottertrout at 11:36 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

More importantly, those arguing against this guy should really ask themselves why they care enough to spend their precious seconds opposing this violation, of all the violations in the world.

We live in a time when the informal institutions and norms of good-faith conduct that are essential to having a system of government that is remotely functional are under relentless and intentional assault. Almost entirely from the right, but assaulting them from the left as well does the republic no good at all.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:37 AM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

If I see one more liberal handwring essay about the noble fucking morons of Bumblefuck County and why they believe literally the stupidest and most easily debunked bullshit rumors but that's honorable because they are old and white and had every god damn privilege handed to them during the post-War boom economy so they had no choice but to screw everyone that came after them and now they feel left out of the national conversation because we don't arrest gay people for sodomy any more and theres all these brown people around now that get to vote and have jobs too and that's an affront to God I guess because every one of them is a terrorist looking to crash a plane into the Cracker Barrel off Route 9 I may well fucking ignite.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 11:39 AM on November 6, 2016 [50 favorites]

the noble fucking morons of Bumblefuck County

...by Chuck Tingle?
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:41 AM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

A lot of people here were chortling this summer over the possibility Trump's incompetent machine might have been picking electors that would not support him at the convention.

That was a completely different situation, and those were not even electors.

Delegates to the RNC are chosen by rules defined by the Republican party. Electors are elected by the people of the state, according to the laws of the state. Bound delegates to the RNC were pledged to their candidates for only the first round, so in a brokered convention, Trump delegates could switch candidates without breaking any laws or rules. Electors from Washington State signed a legally required pledge to vote for their party nominee, period.

I would have loved to see Trump's poor delegate selection cost him the nomination in a brokered convention, but I would not want to see a faithless elector cost him the electoral college if he had won the election fair and square. It's too great a price to pay, even given the stakes.
posted by mbrubeck at 11:42 AM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

> I've met Trumpist hispanics.

our local paper (la tercera, santiago, chile) has (brief) interviews with three chilean ex-pats who are voting for trump. they don't say anything you couldn't guess tbh.
posted by andrewcooke at 11:44 AM on November 6, 2016

Mike Huckabee left me a voicemail with a personal message direct from Jesus. Yes, Jesus! When he got to the part about "Render unto Seizure" I had to back up the recording to listen again.

Yep, "Render unto Seizure." Thanks, Mike!
posted by Surely This at 11:52 AM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

"Render unto Seizure"
JRun again!
posted by thelonius at 11:55 AM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

For Recent Activity: NEW THREAD
posted by mbrubeck at 12:07 PM on November 6, 2016 [4 favorites]

It's a willingness to intentionally distort an election result.

It's really not. It's a holdover from a time when it was generally acknowledged that brakes were needed on the mob, but it's not a distortion. If Trump won the EVs, I'd be praying for faithless electors to save America.
posted by corb at 12:13 PM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

Mike Huckabee left me a voicemail with a personal message direct from Jesus. Yes, Jesus! When he got to the part about "Render unto Seizure" I had to back up the recording to listen again.

Render unto Caesar.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 12:24 PM on November 6, 2016

dis_integration: "Anecdata from Albany: a smattering of Trump signs on my daily dog walks, (including one around the corner that says "deplorable and proud of it", which, wtf?!)"

Quite a lot of people have embraced the moniker completely un-ironically.
posted by Mitheral at 12:24 PM on November 6, 2016

zombieflanders: " On the voter ID issue, it's a constant moving of the goalposts. You might be able to convince them on free voter ID, but not for expanding the numbers and hours of voter registration locations. After all, what kind of lazy bum can't find the time to get to one? Never mind that they can be up to ~250 miles away and only open 9-5, it's gotta be a personal fault."

Or the voter id office is only open on the 5th Wednesday of every month. Yep, 4 days annually (last chance to get ID for this go around was back in August; hope you have all the right documentation. But hey the office is open for almost a full working day (8:15 to 4) so I can see how that is completely reasonable. I'm really surprised they didn't go whole hog and have the office only open on Feb 29th. For maximum disenfranchisement the office should be in the unlit, unstaired cellar and contained in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying "Beware of the Leopard"
posted by Mitheral at 12:35 PM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

>> Mike Huckabee left me a voicemail with a personal message direct from Jesus. Yes, Jesus! When he got to the part about "Render unto Seizure" I had to back up the recording to listen again.

> Render unto Caesar.

I don't think Mike Huckabee is on Mefi. You might want to email him that information.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:37 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Pace yourself; sleep, water, good nutrition, own time, exercise, non-election activities, whatever puts your mind at rest.

Binging beer and Halloween candy.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:56 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

There is not a chance in hell we'd be discussing Native issues right now if he wasn't doing what he's doing.

So exactly what Native issues ARE we talking about now, thanks to this guy? Be specific.
posted by happyroach at 1:05 PM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

THEY'VE ADDED TEXAS TO THE STATES TAB ON THE PHONE BANKING PAGE!

All this time I've been thinking "I wish I could call Texas." I was so excited when they added Florida.

AND NOW THEY'VE ADDED TEXAS!

Dialing ...
posted by kristi at 1:17 PM on November 6, 2016 [15 favorites]

So, a friend of mine was just notified that his Florida mail-in ballot (straight D ticket that was mailed months ago btw) was disqualified because the signature on the ballot doesn't match the one they have on file. According to the notice, this friend has until 5pm on Monday to go to the elections office to fix the error, but the reason the ballot was mailed in is because friend is working on the other side of the world currently so going to the office is not really possible. Anyone else hearing similar stuff? Sounds super sketchy and makes me worried for Florida a little...

Any local Florida info anyone has that I can pass on about options would be greatly appreciated!
posted by danapiper at 1:35 PM on November 6, 2016

Comey today, less than 36 hours before the election: "You know that letter I sent out last week to appease the Republicans that got everyone in a tizzy? Well, never mind."
posted by JackFlash at 1:42 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

For those of you wanting to text instead of phonebank and don't have a Hillary texting event nearby, I just spent the last hour texting for Next Gen Climate (on behalf of Hillary and other Dems) and it's been a great experience. I have a friend who works for Color of Change and they're doing the same with black voters. Moveon.org is doing it as well.

As a dyed-in-the-wool believer in organizer who came up through field, I was pretty skeptical about texting instead of calling, but in this hour I've had twice as many actual conversations with voters than I did in 4 hours of calling with the Hillary tool a few weeks ago in the same time window (Sunday afternoon). This is a really exciting development and I hope someone is doing some serious A/B testing on this vs. phonebanking.
posted by lunasol at 1:44 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

So exactly what Native issues ARE we talking about now, thanks to this guy? Be specific.

It looks like we're stuck back on deciding whether he is Protesting Correctly or if we can just go ahead and ignore him because he's using what fleeting political leverage he has to actually get his voice heard in a way that we've determined to be Contrary to the American System of Democracy.

I wouldn't blame that on him.

Seriously, snark aside: This is a threat that

(a) only has teeth in the very specific, highly unlikely circumstance of a 269-269 tie;
(b) in which situation, there appear to be mechanisms by which the elector could be replaced by the party apparatus in time for the official convocation of the Electoral College in December (I think? that's a thing I haven't thought about since 2000) and
(c) if anyone has the right to hold the American political system hostage until their demands are met, it's sure as hell a Native person.

It's easy for us to prance about on MeFi re: our support for the DAPL protestors at Standing Rock. The vast majority of us really will not be materially affected in any way if the pipeline is built or is not built. But threaten us with an electoral vote that leads to Trump, and suddenly even good liberals are up. in. arms.

How dare this person exercise their power over our system! Don't they know that a whole nation's way of life is at stake?

Well, turnabout is fair play.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:45 PM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

Comey today, less than 36 hours before the election: "You know that letter I sent out last week to appease the Republicans that got everyone in a tizzy? Well, never mind."

That fucking toolbag. He can't be fired quick enough.
posted by Artw at 1:47 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Comey in his best Gilda Radner voice: "Never mind."
posted by JackFlash at 1:52 PM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

So today is apparently the day I ran out of fucks. I woke up, got online, and started fighting anyone being anti-Hillary. I just have run out of give-a-shit and am sick of listening to this bull. My longest exchange has been with someone spreading the "pizza is code for child sex orgies" crap. Umm, I think I've won that encounter, but if anyone sees any sane takes on that, could you pass it this way?

(I searched my own email archive for "pizza" and posted incriminating statements like talk about a place that has pizza and "more than just pizza." Obviously, I was talking about a secret brothel, amirite?)
posted by threeturtles at 2:21 PM on November 6, 2016

If you can read this you're in the wrong thread.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:21 PM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

Several hundred comments later, I'd like to thank amarynth for the link to ActBlue's donation campaign for close Senate races. I gave!
posted by wallabear at 2:34 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Comey in his best Gilda Radner voice: "Never mind."

Someone has to say "James you ignorant slut" first.
posted by nubs at 2:50 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

ChurchHatesTucker: "If you can read this you're in the wrong thread."

Your not my supervisor!
posted by Mitheral at 3:14 PM on November 6, 2016 [6 favorites]

Someone has to say "James you ignorant slut" first

Ixnay! Gilda Radner as Roseanne Roseannadanna is not Jane Curtin as Jane Curtin in Weekend Update.
posted by y2karl at 3:16 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

Get your pop cultural references right!
posted by y2karl at 3:20 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

Sorry. I'm just a caveman. I fell on some ice and later got thawed out. These threads frighten and confuse me. Sometimes I wonder if little demons got into my phone and typed all these comments. But there's one thing I do know - if there's any mistaken pop culture references, it was the demons, not me.
posted by nubs at 3:34 PM on November 6, 2016 [14 favorites]

Pater Aletheias: This Is What It Looks Like When You Sell Your Soul For A Bowl Of Trump

I could understand religious groups making a pragmatic decision to support Trump, although (a) they should realise they wouldn't get what they were promised; and (b) other values should be more important. But it was very, very hard to see how someone could make a principled decision to support Trump, even if they're pretty deluded. This article goes a long way to explaining that: it was never about ethical principles; it was about supporting the guy on the Right.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:38 PM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

But it was very, very hard to see how someone could make a principled decision to support Trump, even if they're pretty deluded.
Many many Americans, ESPECIALLY white males share a central principle with Deplorable Donald. "ME FIRST. EVERYBODY ELSE LAST." And many Christians carry an extremely edited version of The Bible that supports that principle.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:48 PM on November 6, 2016 [2 favorites]

danapiper, this comment by roomthreeseventeen linked to a Facebook post about a person in the exact same situation, but the post has now been removed. I can't recall what the solution was but it was not about the signature, despite that being the reason given. It was something having to do with a local race on the ballot that had changed (sorry, wish I could remember the details).

Your friend needs to call the local office handling the election and may have to go in person to get it fixed (sounds like it's not possible for him, unfortunately). He'll have to ask them what to do in his particular situation.
posted by sallybrown at 3:51 PM on November 6, 2016

sallybrown, thank you. I'll encourage reaching out to the local office. Friend was pretty discouraged but knowing that in other situations it wasn't about the signature might help
posted by danapiper at 3:56 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

I see people whose point of view I really respect on both sides of this faithless elector example. I definitely see the poetic justice of a protest electoral college vote by a native American.

Efforts to minimize the symbolic and effective meaning of his action seem disrespectful to me. If it were 'just' one man's vote, or if it 'doesn't really matter' because it is unlikely to affect the outcome, it would not be a meaningful act on his part. I don't know him at all, but I give him the benefit of the doubt of being a thoughtful actor, and undertaking this, at huge risk if not cost to himself, I imagine, because he does see it as a meaningful act. I would be surprised if he would agree with the calls of 'supporters' in this thread to just ignore it?

And I think it is a meaningful act. The American political process fundamentally relies on the consent and cooperation of citizens and leaders. That's why it IS a big deal that Donald Trump refused to commit to respecting the election results, even if in the end, the concession speech is not really necessary and there isn't much he can really do.

So this action, to me, really is aimed at the legitimacy of American political processes. And if any community has the right to call into question the legitimacy of American political processes, the native community certainly does. I would be willing to honor his action by having a serious conversation about how to have legitimate political processes in a state whose roots were/are fertilized in colonialism and genocide. And I still can think that it's a fraught and problematic action, and feel really concerned about how it plays out.

In the balance, is it more wrong or more right? Is legally erasing the votes, and voters, you were selected to represent, valid/acceptable political expression, and for who? It's not's really obvious to me, either in this case or for generating general 'rules.' I lean towards no, because it undermines the integrity of our voting system, and I think he wouldn't have taken this stand if he weren't prepared face controversy. But I don't see how calling for overlooking it is a service to either the political process or progressive discourse.
posted by Salamandrous at 4:17 PM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

Speaking as a Washington resident whose vote will be disenfranchised if Satiacum follows through on his pledge to be faithless, I don't think it is poetic justice at all.

First, he is speaking solely for himself, not for his tribe. The Puyallup tribe has been a significant contributor (nearly $500,000) to HRC and has supported her candidacy. If Satiacum is not speaking for his community, I think the poetry of his action is missing.

Second, genocide and betrayal of treaties is a profound wrong, but it is not disenfranchisement. It would be poetic if someone whose history was Jim Crow and denial of the vote did this, perhaps -- that is a different history than that of Native Americans.

Third, if you want to undermine the legitimacy of American political processes, what is with the decision to become an activist in a major party, and an elector for them? So that someday you could launch your sabotaging attack? What we have here instead is someone who is elevating his own wishes over his tribe, his party, his state, and his promise to reflect the will of the electorate. He is even doing that to the candidate he says he represents, Bernie, who is supporting HRC as actively as he can.

This is faithless indeed. But it isn't principled at all in my view.
posted by bearwife at 4:39 PM on November 6, 2016 [9 favorites]

Second, genocide and betrayal of treaties is a profound wrong, but it is not disenfranchisement. It would be poetic if someone whose history was Jim Crow and denial of the vote did this, perhaps -- that is a different history than that of Native Americans.

All other things about this discussion aside....
This is a really wierd hair to split and, as a Native person, is a really, really gross thing to say.

Not to mention that, specifically in my family's living memory, it's also demonstrably wrong because, believe it or not, black people in Alabama were not the only people shit upon enough to have their voices silenced. But, whatever, believe whatever you want.
posted by RolandOfEld at 4:55 PM on November 6, 2016 [12 favorites]

So this action, to me, really is aimed at the legitimacy of American political processes. And if any community has the right to call into question the legitimacy of American political processes, the native community certainly does.

This exactly. For me, this is where the argument ends. Who am I to question if a native person decides to challenge the legitimacy of the US government? I can't really argue with that, their position is unassailable.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 5:47 PM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

If you can't see the next thread, it can't see you.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:28 PM on November 6, 2016 [5 favorites]

octothorpe: "I wish that I hadn't let my digital subscription lapse because I want to be able to cancel it now."

We have a paper subscription (I'm old fashioned). I will be canceling it in the morning.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:13 PM on November 6, 2016 [3 favorites]

As a member of a nonpartisan government agency (in the words of my boss^4, "your job is to execute the democratic process, not participate in it", and I take that very seriously), the faithless elector gives me Complicated Feelings!
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:43 PM on November 6, 2016 [1 favorite]

So exactly what Native issues ARE we talking about now, thanks to this guy? Be specific.

That they exist at all and have a political voice. The bar is pretty fucking low when it comes to discussions of Native issues, recognition is still more than we usually get in the US. If anyone wants to discuss Clinton and Native issues, I'm all for it. We'd just seemingly rather just talk about how he's saying stuff instead of what he's saying.

That isn't a thing that we ever talk about. It isn't a thing anyone talks about. When was the last time anything about the Federal Gov't and its relationship with native groups was a topic at all in a presidential election? This is a major deal. Even getting the issue on the table is a fucking step.

If you don't believe me, look at how much anger is being directed at a guy who cannot affect the election in any meaningful way. Someone literally said that if he had been black he might have a point. Literally trying to split hairs between slavery and genocide to define this guy as bad. It's incredibly hard to get anyone to seriously consider Native people as having political legitimacy of any type, even on the left.
posted by neonrev at 8:24 PM on November 6, 2016 [8 favorites]

I'm not leaving until CHT writes me a haiku that combines the election, going to the next thread, and a sloth.
posted by numaner at 7:04 AM on November 7, 2016

Sloth turns toward you
"Vote #1 quidnunc kid"
Next thread, numaner
posted by Etrigan at 7:08 AM on November 7, 2016 [6 favorites]

hmph, i'll take it.
posted by numaner at 7:11 AM on November 7, 2016 [2 favorites]

Before people even try to split that "genocide vs. slavery hair" (ill-advised though it may be to go there) they should make sure they're up on their history. Mass enslavement of Native Americans by Europeans was absolutely a thing—both in the US and elsewhere—and the slave trade with Africa definitely amounted to genocide against the cultural groups that were most heavily impacted, but it's not taught much in American schools because it happened on another continent. There's not even anything to split.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 8:05 AM on November 7, 2016 [6 favorites]

If by chance any of you haven't seen the documentary about the Siegels "Queen of Versailles" it truly is essential watching for insight into the world of people like Trump. The shit they say without a single blink of conscience is amazing.

Also the shit they carelessly leave lying about and step in! Much like Trump.
posted by srboisvert at 1:52 PM on November 7, 2016 [3 favorites]

"But there are people of color in Washington too!" is a pretty pathetic argument to make in response to "this smacks of white people telling people of color to stop being inconvenient."

I'm POC, I live in Washington, I deserve my fucking vote fucking counted, and I find your sentiment *incredibly* offensive, just fyi.
posted by mordax at 4:44 PM on November 7, 2016 [2 favorites]

I didn't mention it above, but I am also a person of color living in Washington.
posted by mbrubeck at 1:45 PM on November 8, 2016

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