“The optimal method of question delivery is found to be Secret Note”

April 1, 2017 4:21 AM

Armstrong, E. (2017) A Neural Networks Approach to Predicting How Things Might Have Turned Out Had I Mustered the Nerve to Ask Barry Cottonfield to the Junior Prom Back in 1997, arxiv:1703.10449 [q-bio.NC]

“We use a feed-forward artificial neural network with back-propagation through a single hidden layer to predict Barry Cottonfield's likely reply to this author's invitation to the "Once Upon a Daydream" junior prom at the Conard High School gymnasium back in 1997. To examine the network's ability to generalize to such a situation beyond specific training scenarios, we use a L2 regularization term in the cost function and examine performance over a range of regularization strengths. In addition, we examine the nonsensical decision-making strategies that emerge in Barry at times when he has recently engaged in a fight with his annoying kid sister Janice. To simulate Barry's inability to learn efficiently from large mistakes (an observation well documented by his algebra teacher during sophomore year), we choose a simple quadratic form for the cost function, so that the weight update magnitude is not necessary correlated with the magnitude of output error.

“Network performance on test data indicates that this author would have received an 87.2 (1)% chance of "Yes" given a particular set of environmental input parameters. Most critically, the optimal method of question delivery is found to be Secret Note rather than Verbal Speech. There also exists mild evidence that wearing a burgundy mini-dress might have helped. The network performs comparably for all values of regularization strength, which suggests that the nature of noise in a high school hallway during passing time does not affect much of anything. We comment on possible biases inherent in the output, implications regarding the functionality of a real biological network, and future directions. Over-training is also discussed, although the linear algebra teacher assures us that in Barry's case this is not possible.”

See also Armstrong, E. (2012) Non-detection of the Tooth Fairy at Optical Wavelengths, arxiv:1204.0492 [astro-ph.IM]

posted by alby (16 comments total)

What's scary is that there's a 67.3% percent probability chance that this will be the defining turning point to the penultimate paper that triggers the neural net advanced enhancement that triggers the Raspberry Pi version 2.718 gaining full consciousness in a particular high school hackers basement.


Already happened, we just don't know it yet.
posted by sammyo at 5:30 AM on April 1, 2017 [2 favorites]

I love this so much. The abstract alone murders me and the fact that she carries it through to full length with figures and citations deserves a standing slow clap.
I'd like to send Eve a slice of quiche and a glass of whole milk in recognition of her commitment to the bit. Is there an app for that? Perhaps a copy of Lee Seigel's "Love in a Dead Language" would be easier.
posted by putzface_dickman at 5:37 AM on April 1, 2017 [6 favorites]

Nice!
posted by nofundy at 5:39 AM on April 1, 2017

I wanted an answer - or at least some maximum-likelihood answer. But how to obtain an answer? Contacting Barry to simply pose the question was no longer a possibility; it would have violated my restraining order (WHPD Records Division 2002-2017, renewable).

posted by pjenks at 5:39 AM on April 1, 2017 [13 favorites]

I've put in an interlibrary loan request for Odes To Barry (1999-2017) but they haven't gotten back to me yet for some reason. In this age of open data this is pretty disappointing.
posted by eykal at 5:59 AM on April 1, 2017 [1 favorite]

She also authored "Non-detection of the Tooth Fairy at Optical Wavelengths"
posted by Ironmouth at 6:28 AM on April 1, 2017 [2 favorites]

When does the website start changing colors?
posted by msali at 6:30 AM on April 1, 2017 [1 favorite]

Attention to those who may have read the paper in full! SCP Foundation MTF Kappa-Ten personnel will be visiting you in the convenience of your own home or workplace with a follow-on article for your personal enjoyment. It must be read in full, as confirmed by MTF Kappa-Ten Med Staff, before the flamethrower team is ordered to stand down. Thank you, and have a wonderful day!
posted by Slap*Happy at 6:32 AM on April 1, 2017 [5 favorites]

"But how to obtain an answer?"
posted by Catblack at 6:43 AM on April 1, 2017

And, from last year, E. Armstrong gives us Pipe-cleaner Model of Neuronal Network Dynamics.

Regarding the dynamics themselves: as pipe cleaners possess no intrinsic dynamics, in our model we attribute the emergent circuit dynamics to magic. Magic is a strategy that has been largely neglected in the neuroscience community, and may serve as an illuminating comparison to the common physics-based approaches. This model makes predictions that it would be really awesome to test experimentally. Moreover, the relative simplicity of the pipe cleaner - setting aside the fact that it comes in an overwhelming variety of colors - renders it an excellent theoretical building block with which to create simple network models. Also, they are incredibly cheap when bought wholesale on Amazon.

posted by clawsoon at 6:50 AM on April 1, 2017 [4 favorites]

As someone who spends way too much of my precious time obsessing and beating myself up over every decision I've ever made, which may have been the wrong one and which may have kept my life from going in a better direction, I honestly can't say whether an exercise like this would bring me comfort and closure or just more self-recrimination.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 6:59 AM on April 1, 2017 [2 favorites]

I normally hate the internet on April 1, but this is great.

Section IV C. Insight into the functionality of real biological networks:










posted by cyclopticgaze at 8:49 AM on April 1, 2017 [9 favorites]

A Neural Networks Approach to Predicting How Things Might Have Turned Out Had I Mustered the Nerve to Ask Barry Cottonfield to the Junior Prom Back in 1997

Cut to:
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:33 AM on April 1, 2017

Stage 2: Tweaking Barry

Based on the photos, I will guess that this stage took up most of Barry's 20s.
posted by GenjiandProust at 9:42 AM on April 1, 2017 [1 favorite]

Omg, I literally snort-laughed when I got to Barry's picture. Reading through the whole paper was wonderful. This is so awesome, thanks for sharing.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:01 PM on April 2, 2017

Honestly - I would have gone with a random forest here.
posted by piyushnz at 3:24 PM on April 5, 2017