Wonder what else he could have done without...
April 11, 2017 3:30 PM   Subscribe

"In the boldest Chart Party simulation yet, we’re sending Barry Bonds back in time to re-live every plate appearance of his historic 2004 season without a baseball bat. "

(via Kotke, natch)
posted by jenkinsEar (29 comments total) 26 users marked this as a favorite
 
This is really another delightful piece from Jon Bois. I'm not 100% convinced by his model, but I'm endlessly amused by the result. Glass of milks raised to him forever.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:34 PM on April 11, 2017 [2 favorites]


(And yes, I will continue to make the "milks" reference to my grave. Then and only then can you pry the milks from my cold, dead hands.)
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:34 PM on April 11, 2017 [3 favorites]


From the comments:

i use Sheets to generate the charts, then edit them in Photoshop and upload them to Google Earth, which i use to animate/scroll/etc

Google Earth to do motion graphics? Is this as bonkers as it seems, like is there not a better tool for this that's not too expensive? If I wanted to make similar animations can anyone suggest a better approach?
posted by Space Coyote at 4:07 PM on April 11, 2017


this is even better than i had expected it to be, and that's saying something for a jon bois chart party
posted by burgerrr at 4:12 PM on April 11, 2017 [4 favorites]


Space Coyote, sometimes the best tool is the one you have and know. I'd personally do this in After Effects or Blender, but I trained for years to learn those tools. I certainly wouldn't have thought of Bois' approach on my own but I can respect the lateral thinking to solve the problem with the tools at hand.
posted by Alterscape at 4:23 PM on April 11, 2017 [3 favorites]


1. Jon Bois is a national treasure
2. Huh, I've never seen his fuzzy ginger head before
posted by danny the boy at 4:35 PM on April 11, 2017 [3 favorites]


1. I feel like the major factor that is ignored here is the caliber of pitching, which gets lost in the "fraction of pitches that are strikes" calculation. I'm not sure how to control for it, but my guess is that better pitchers (perhaps with a lower ERA?) are less likely to intentionally walk him.

2. Does that "fraction of pitches that are strikes" count intentional and unintentional balls the same?

It doesn't really matter... Barry Bonds is still apparently the greatest hitter of all time.
posted by MengerSponge at 5:03 PM on April 11, 2017 [4 favorites]


If you don't much care about the "without a baseball bat" shtick and don't want to watch a twelve-minute video, just watch the first four minutes, before he gets into the shtick. I didn't think I could have any more respect for (the way too often unfairly maligned) Bonds, but now I do. Thanks for the post!
posted by languagehat at 5:47 PM on April 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


Holy hell, this is really something. Bonds was just a once-in-a-lifetime confluence of talent, timing, and, sure, chemical assistance.
posted by uncleozzy at 5:51 PM on April 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


Well, huh.

That certainly wasn't the result I would have expected.
posted by DoctorFedora at 6:24 PM on April 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


Google Earth to do motion graphics? Is this as bonkers as it seems, like is there not a better tool for this that's not too expensive? If I wanted to make similar animations can anyone suggest a better approach?

You can try Prezi which can do some similar sorts of things.
posted by bitdamaged at 6:31 PM on April 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


I grew up a big fan of Barry Bonds (AVS #1, Drabek #2, Bonds #3..never liked Bonilla).

That said, I hated him when he went to the Giants, but I understood. Thus began 20 years of losing, who would want to stay for that. But before he left and before his head began to look like a bobblehead doll, he was one of the best pure contact hitters - no amount of drugs helps you put the bat on the ball. Now, steroids, etc will help hit that ball further (though evidence of that cause and effect remains to be seen....) but you have to have that hand-eye coordination. You don't hit 73 home runs on steroids, cream and clear alone.

But.....that all said, the sanctimony of baseball writers is a heaping pile of bullshit. When Big Mac was bopping dingers left and right nobody was asking about the HGH sitting right there in his locker. To take it a major step back, Hank Aaron and hitters in the 50's, 60's and 70's would routinely pop greenies and drink red juice, both amphetamines, before games. To my fellow Pittsburgh Pirates fans I remind them Willie Stargell wasn't nicknamed 'Pops' for his fatherly figure, it was for the pills he popped before games (and supplied to teammates as well). Even the untouchable Roberto Clemente took greenies before games (also the double entendre behind the 1970's Green Weenie). But whatever, people choose to forget that and villify Bonds.

I'm not saying he should be canonized, he should be in Cooperstown, and people should stop acting like he's the first player to allegedly take something to help him succeed on the field.

(Goes off to watch Proud Again, and if you get that reference there's an Iron City waiting for you)
posted by splen at 7:21 PM on April 11, 2017 [9 favorites]


splen, people who are stronger have better fine motor control when manipulating heavy objects, like baseball bats. Also I think you're misremembering the Mark McGwire situation a little bit. What he had out in the open in his locker was "andro" (androstenedione) which was an OTC supplement at the time, and there was a good deal of controversy in the press. We now know that it was part of a larger regimen of drugs.

That said, lots of players were using PEDs in 2004 and none of them hit like Bonds. He was a once-in-a-generation talent.
posted by chrchr at 7:36 PM on April 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


What he had out in the open in his locker was "andro" (androstenedione)

You are correct. I got my supplements mixed up.

Bonds used a 32 oz. bat IIRC, equal to or less than most players.
posted by splen at 7:41 PM on April 11, 2017


The question at the end:
What does this mean about baseball?

... nothing good
Is a bit too dour.

The thing that is fascinating about the scenario is that pitchers and Bonds were playing a meta game that had consequences for the actual game. As I see it, the game rules about whether or not the ball was in the strike zone were less important than the meta rules of whether or not Bonds would swing at the ball and the likely RBI of the hit.
posted by ethansr at 8:43 PM on April 11, 2017 [2 favorites]


I am developing a serious man crush on Jon Bois.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:57 PM on April 11, 2017


I'd like to see this same methodology used on a mediocre player. Do less skillful batters see a higher percentage of pitches in the stike zone than Bonds saw? I'm willing to bet other batters are more likely to swing at junk than Bonds was too, so my suspicion is this methodology would demonstrate that every batter would benefit from only pretending to have a bat.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 9:06 PM on April 11, 2017


You should suggest it to him, I bet Bois would do it!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:19 PM on April 11, 2017


Bonds is a hall of fame hitter. Not sure if I would put him in the hall of fame or not.

There is no doubt that with or without steroids or clear or whatever, he was an amazing talent. (A-Rod too btw.) To me, the advantage was not in his hand eye coordination it was in the strength that turned long outs into home runs. Sure some of those 73 would have been outs otherwise. On the other hand, I think pitchers were pitching around him and he was able to hit some balls that were thrown to him but were out of the strike zone yet he chose to swing. It is hard enough to hit a strike. Hitting a ball (not a strike) is even harder. Then add in the fact that some pitchers pitching to him might have been on the juice themselves and it is even harder to know just how good he really is. I think the best thing to do is to compare him to players of his era. If you do, he hands down is the best.
posted by AugustWest at 9:51 PM on April 11, 2017


I don't really have a tolerance for watching baseball anymore, but I'll watch anything Jon Bois cares to create about it. His Pretty Good story about Lonnie Smith is, indeed, pretty good and the Chart Party about Jeff Francoeur is a delight.

Though my favorite Chart Party is the sad tale of the Chiefs kicking 7 field goals while losing. The timing with the lyrics is brilliant.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 10:31 PM on April 11, 2017 [2 favorites]


I loved the chart with OPS from all players from all seasons. What a neat piece of history.
posted by MillMan at 10:54 PM on April 11, 2017


The episode of Pretty Good about the 1904 Olympic marathon is one of my favorite things ever.
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:39 AM on April 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


> the sanctimony of baseball writers is a heaping pile of bullshit.

Racist bullshit at that.

> Not sure if I would put him in the hall of fame or not.

See above re: sanctimony.
posted by languagehat at 8:37 AM on April 12, 2017


Barry Bonds is at WORST the third best baseball player of all time. He was a Hall-Of-Famer even if he retired after the 1999 season, which by all accounts is the time he began to take chemical supplements.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 9:58 AM on April 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


I read once that the PED hysteria in baseball really kicked off after Bonds broke the HR record due to three common American attitudes: irrational drug panic, dislike of organized labour, and resentment of successful minorities.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 10:00 AM on April 12, 2017


As I said above, Bonds is a Hall of Famer, just not sure I would put him in the Hall. Although, I do not have a great reason why not. I guess it just feels like cheating to me, but as time goes on and I hear all the arguments why it is not, I am coming closer to thinking Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod all deserve to get in. To be honest, I think my view is soft. No reason to really make them wait if you are going to let them in anyway someday.

I do think that the steroid era was to blame on about 80% the owners and commissioner and 20% on the fans. I happen to love baseball and can watch a 1-0 pitcher's duel, but I get that the casual fan wants to see action which is translated into people running around the bases.

I do believe that when the rightfully do let the steroid era players into the hall, they should lift the ban on Pete Rose. If there is no morals criteria, there is no morals criteria. As I understand it, he did not bet while playing and only bet on other games or FOR his team when managing. With sites like FanDuel and all the fantasy sites, the sports seem to encourage gambling on games.
posted by AugustWest at 10:22 AM on April 12, 2017


Someone on Twitter has fixed my minor complaint about the methodology here by running the scenario through 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Result: .608 was probably a little high, but not far off.
posted by figurant at 11:36 AM on April 12, 2017


Barry Bonds is at WORST the third best baseball player of all time. He was a Hall-Of-Famer even if he retired after the 1999 season

Yes, this exactly. Bonds belongs in the Hall.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:38 PM on April 12, 2017 [2 favorites]


splen: "I grew up a big fan of Barry Bonds (AVS #1, Drabek #2, Bonds #3..never liked Bonilla).

That said, I hated him when he went to the Giants, but I understood.
"

Bonds was immensely talented, and clearly deserves to be in the HOF - as noted above, he'd be qualified just based on pre-drug seasons. That said, sports fandom does not have to be entirely fact-based, and as a Pirates fan, I will never not hate him.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:28 PM on April 19, 2017


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