BC Votes
May 8, 2017 8:36 AM   Subscribe

British Columbia goes to the polls on Tuesday, to determine if the governing BC Liberals (not to be confused with the federal Liberals) deserve to win a fifth election in a row, or if a stream of scandals and perceived corruption will cause voters to show them the door.

Christy Clark, the premier since 2011, won a come-from-behind victory in the previous election, and she's hoping to pull out another win, having closed the gap in opinion polling to a tie with the opposition NDP. Clark is campaigning on the strength of the BC economy and her ability to stand up to American protectionism.

But then there's the money. The New York Times called BC "the wild west of campaign cash" because of its unregulated campaign finance. Just before the election, the RCMP began an investigation into lobbyists funnelling corporate donations to the BC Liberal party -- they have since returned over $250,000 in improper donations. Clark was also taking a $50,000 per year "top up" from the party, for her duties as leader. And many appointees to public positions are also BC Liberal donors.

John Horgan leads the BC New Democratic Party. He's a passionate -- or angry -- defender of underdog, who promises $10/day childcare, $15/hour minimum wage, ending monthly healthcare premiums and bridge tolls, 110,000 new units of affordable housing, and a ministry of mental health and addictions to address drug use and the fentanyl crisis.

Andrew Weaver is a climate scientist and the BC Green Party leader. He's also the only MLA the party has ever elected, although that may soon change: The Green party is having a bigger impact on this campaign, and could take up to four seats in the legislature.

More campaign info: Polls are open from 8am to 8pm on Tuesday, and you're entitled to 4 consecutive hours off work during voting hours. Here are the full details about how to vote. You'll need to bring ID, but there are lots of options.
posted by Banknote of the year (85 comments total) 10 users marked this as a favorite
 
Here's Andrew Weaver essentially cyber-stalking a Victoria, BC teacher. She's a union rep who teaches in Weaver's constituency. He met her and made some very anti-union comments. She wrote a Facebook post about it, but Weaver (who I guess is friends with her) took screenshots of some semi-private Facebook posts she made, and posted to Twitter.

I do hope the Greens get trounced this election.
posted by My Dad at 8:55 AM on May 8, 2017 [5 favorites]


British Columbia has the most corrupt governments in Canada. The BC Liberals are about on par with the American Democratic party, which is pretty amazingly far-right by Canada's standards. They aren't like any other Liberal party.
posted by Yowser at 8:59 AM on May 8, 2017 [4 favorites]


Our riding in the interior has been solidly NDP for the last 2 elections, but the Greens are making a serious play for it. They have a significant presence, a good candidate and have been spending money (David Suzuki flew in!).

There has been a lot of arguing and discussion about splitting the vote and letting the Liberals take the seat almost by default, but last time I checked, the candidate was sitting at around 25%.

And a quick note on the party names for those not from BC. The Liberals are that in name only. Their colour scheme is traditionally the "conservative" blue, and their policies reflect that.

Yowser, I grew up in Quebec, and I always said that BC was the only province that makes Quebec politics look sane.

Go vote everyone!
posted by sauril at 9:01 AM on May 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


I am currently waiting at my gate for a flight out of province. I have never been so glad for advance voting. Goodness I have hope for a change in government. I have to.
posted by mce at 9:08 AM on May 8, 2017


Here's Andrew Weaver essentially cyber-stalking a Victoria, BC teacher.

It really isn't. This all seems kind of silly, but you really need the context to understand.

And the context of the very, very close ties between the big unions and the NDP (particularly the public sector unions) is pretty important here. All of the big unions hate the Greens, work actively for the NDP, and make no secret of it. You can like that or not like that, but there is no denying that the leadership of the BCTF (the person in question is on the executive) is pretty clearly partisan here.

The NDP have long played this game where union folks act for the NDP and then get mad when they get treated like the political players they are. The BCTF are the Green's political opponent, sadly, and that's a reality we have to live with in BC.

It is a bad situation and I hope some campaign finance reform will help, but there is a long history here that will take many years to get better, if it ever does.
posted by ssg at 9:11 AM on May 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


It really isn't. This all seems kind of silly, but you really need the context to understand... The BCTF are the Green's political opponent, sadly, and that's a reality we have to live with in BC.

Love the way you frame this. /s

For one thing, BCTF isn't the only union Weaver has disparaged. Second, the TF, while certainly aligned with the NDP, is not an affiliate. It's as simplistic as saying that the Liberals do whatever "big business" tells them to do. With the case of Clark's proposed carbon tax on thermal coal exports, anyone from Jim Pattison's organization will tell you this is not so.

Third, the BCTF has some good reasons to vote NDP. The Liberals acted unconstitutionally by stripping key bargaining rights from teachers. The Supreme Court recently forced the BC government to put $300M back into the school system. Guess who fought that battle? Not the Greens. It was the TF. My oldest son has been in school this entire time. I can tell you how bad things are in the school system.

Fourth, unions in British Columbia are no longer Jimmy Hoffa types running building projects. Instead, unions typically represent clerical, health and other service occupations. These occupations are low-paid, and are often represented by women.

The same women like Weaver is cyber-stalking here.

I was once a teacher, but I'm self-employed now. I operate a small business. I get taxed more because I am in a high-income home. I will never be in a union ever again. But I support unions.

If the Greens ever want to get elected, they should recognize a few facts of life, or rename themselves "The Engineer's Disease Party", because that's what they are.
posted by My Dad at 9:29 AM on May 8, 2017 [8 favorites]


My oldest son has been in school this entire time. I can tell you how bad things are in the school system.

How so?
posted by Keith Talent at 9:34 AM on May 8, 2017


BillVanderZalm_MikeHarcourt_GlenClark_GordonCampbell_holding_beer_thats_long_gone_stale.gif
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:25 AM on May 8, 2017


Read the "BC Liberals aren't national Liberals" link, thank you for that. Are the BC NDP roughly equivalent to the national NDP, though?
posted by Chrysostom at 10:27 AM on May 8, 2017


Read the "BC Liberals aren't national Liberals" link, thank you for that. Are the BC NDP roughly equivalent to the national NDP, though?

The NDP is the only major political party in Canada that is integrated between the federal and provincial and territorial levels (the exception being Quebec). This doesn't necessarily translate into a direct lockstep one-party-platform for all provinces, but there's a philosophical alignment, and organizational support (including membership).
posted by majuju at 10:34 AM on May 8, 2017 [3 favorites]


This doesn't necessarily translate into a direct lockstep one-party-platform for all provinces

Heh, to say the least. And if the NDP win tomorrow we're going to see that writ large, with the Alberta NDP having a pipeline expansion to the Pacific as a central policy, and the BC NDP having opposition to said pipeline as a major plank of their own. Interesting times...
posted by Arandia at 11:13 AM on May 8, 2017 [5 favorites]




Oh hey look who happened to drop by. (Twitter)
posted by ODiV at 11:24 AM on May 8, 2017


Keith Talent:
The overriding issue is classroom composition. Many years ago, the province decided to mainstream as many kids as possible, which is great and got very vocal parents off their backs, but neglected to ever fund enough support for these kids. After the Liberals gutted the contract, there was no limit on how many designated kids could be in a classroom. And we're talking about the whole spectrum, ranging from high functioning kids with minor learning issues, ESL learners, Korean kids just off the boat without a word of English, to the just barely able to be left alone without stabbing someone. How effective do you think even the best teacher can be when there are two kids who do not speak English, one dyslexic kid who can't write, two others with medical learning disabilities, you can't write on the whiteboard because it's not safe to turn your back on one of the others, and there are three more who are disruptive but haven't been diagnosed yet because there's no funds left this year. There's very little time, energy or attention left for the 'normal' kids, who are getting shortchanged. It's a credit to the resilience of the kids and teachers that the system manages to function at all.
posted by cfraenkel at 11:34 AM on May 8, 2017 [3 favorites]



My oldest son has been in school this entire time. I can tell you how bad things are in the school system.

How so?


My brother-in-law is a teacher. He describes it as demoralizing, getting on two decades of working for a boss that hates you, who has constantly tried to undermine you, even if that meant breaking the law in the process.
posted by philip-random at 11:40 AM on May 8, 2017 [4 favorites]


I'm not a privileged white person, so that Twitter thread/UI is incomprehensible to me. What are the specific lines and images that show the Green candidate's speech and actions towards union teachers? Is there a summary or translation?
posted by polymodus at 12:27 PM on May 8, 2017


A lifelong resident of BC here, and once again I have to witness an election that in no shape, way, or form would be close had our local mainstream press been even remotely interested in honest coverage of Clark. The New York Times, THE NEW YORK TIMES!! for fuck sakes, published this about the BC Liberals wide open acceptance of donations and also this about sweet heart tax breaks to big corporations. Sometimes it feels like this province truly is a company town, the way we support such grotesque corruption.

Yes, the NYT is doing some of the heavy lifting because the craven toadies at Postmedia, Global et al won't.

In the spirit of previous things I have posted, here is small gallery I drew of of BC's own Premier Velcro Fingers.

Finally, thanks for this wonderful post.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 12:32 PM on May 8, 2017 [5 favorites]


I'll say what I think everyone else has been too polite to say: the BC Liberal Party has essentially been laundering corporate money for Christy Clark.

It's Donald Trump-level embarrassing that she and the Party continue to receive support from BCers, regardless of what you think of the other parties and their leaders.
posted by klanawa at 12:38 PM on May 8, 2017 [10 favorites]


I'm not a privileged white person, so that Twitter thread/UI is incomprehensible to me.

In order to avoid a derail, feel free to MeMail me. I'm not exactly sure about the "white privilege" angle, so feel free to let me know what I am missing, in turn.
posted by My Dad at 1:15 PM on May 8, 2017


My oldest son has been in school this entire time. I can tell you how bad things are in the school system.

>>>How so?


Class sizes have been increased, while resources specifically aimed at helping students with learning disabilities have been decreased. This means there are more special needs students in each class; by law, teachers must provide specialized lesson plans for each student.

As a result, English-language track can be chaotic. This is why many parents choose French Immersion, which has smaller class sizes and more funding. Kids with special needs are also essentially weeded out. It's not an equitable or just system.

The saving grace is that if your child is lucky enough to go through to high school in French Immersion as our oldest son has, s/he will end up being able to build strong bonds with his or her classmates. More learning happens in the classroom.

This is pretty important because, by Grade 10, the students are being streamed, some on the track for STEM, others on the track for god knows what. Our son is fairly bright but we have to really help him with his math in order to prepare him for university-track "pre-Calculus" (the harder, more valuable class) in Grade 10.

I don't know what other families do. One of our son's classmates from kindergarten had to leave French Immersion because he had an undiagnosed learning disability. It was finally diagnosed in Grade 7 -- the second year of middle school. He had spent all that time being basically unable to read.

While high school has not been so bad, in elementary and middle school there is a definite divide between "French kids" and "the English kids". I think that's wrong, but it's a product of the underfunding of the school system over the past 15 years.
posted by My Dad at 1:26 PM on May 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


In regards to Weaver and the Greens' frequent anti-union / anti-TF comments (listen to his interview on 690 at the start of the campaign), I think what pisses me off the most is the fact that the TF and teachers in general have been bullied and steamrolled by the Liberal government. It would be nice if the bullying stopped.

My son's middle school band teachers poured their heart and soul into making the school's band programme the best in the city, and one of the best ones in the province. Their hearts and their souls. And then when the Clark government locked the teachers out, forcing students to miss the final weeks of the school year, and an entire month at the beginning of the year, the band teacher, addressing parents before being locked out said "this, too, shall pass." But it took months and months of hard-nosed behavior by the government.

My kids lost more than a month of school because of that.

I'm not always a big fan of teachers. There are some good ones, and some sanctimonious duds. But on the whole they do a great job, and I'm so very disappointed that the BC Green Party doesn't recognize that.

But, then again, if they have kids, they send them to private schools anyway.
posted by My Dad at 1:36 PM on May 8, 2017


Good points regarding special needs kids, I hadn't really thought of that. I'm lucky enough to have two daughters in french high school, and while your post jogs my memory back to others people's complaints when our friends had elementary aged kids, we've always been fortunate.

Thanks.
posted by Keith Talent at 1:46 PM on May 8, 2017


Read an anecdotal report from a Vancouver teacher on Reddit this morning that's perhaps relevant to the education discussion.

I'm expecting either a Liberal majority or a Green-backed minority tomorrow (which might be even more distressing).
posted by majuju at 1:54 PM on May 8, 2017


So French immersion schools are the nice Canadian version of private schools for ambitious parents? Seems about right.
posted by clawsoon at 1:57 PM on May 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


So French immersion schools are the nice Canadian version of private schools for ambitious parents?

It's called "poor man's private school" (bearing in mind there are publicly-funded private school in British Columbia that I sure can't afford).

I suppose French Immersion is for ambitious parents, if your ambition is to have your kids actually learn something in school. As parents we only want the best for our kids, to give them as many options in life as possible.

English-track is just too chaotic.
posted by My Dad at 2:03 PM on May 8, 2017 [1 favorite]


So French immersion schools are the nice Canadian version of private schools for ambitious parents?

I haven't seen a French immersion only public school (maybe in the big cities?) as most of the schools here which offer French Immersion also offer English track programmes as well. And they don't really cost any more then a non-French Immersion school so I'm not sure I get the "private school" thing. However, in my experience, it is often the case (not always though) that the schools offering French Immersion are in wealthier and whiter neighbourhoods which is why in my experience French immersion is for "WEALTHY and WHITE parents" rather than "ambitious". We had the choice of 2 schools to send our dauphin to and we opted for the poorer more diverse one, for better or worse, because the lily whiteness of the French Immersion school was such a turn off. The school which my kid attends offers Core French which is like a quarter French Immersion. I think ambitious Anglos in my neck of the woods send their kids to the French only public school rather than French Immersion. Which are a little too Catholic for this former Catholic.

Good luck with your election BC! Because seriously you need it.
posted by Ashwagandha at 4:18 PM on May 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


Victoria is probably different than wherever Ashwagandha is from because, despite its reputation, there is a fair amount of diversity in Victoria, including Sino- and Korean-Canadians, Indo-Canadians, and First Nations. In Vancouver is likely even more different than wherever Ashwagandha is from, since 43 percent of residents have Asian heritage (my sons and my wife would be classified as "Asian" in the Census). So French Immersion is just not in "white" schools.

Our youngest son did in fact go to an "inner-city" elementary school, with a significant First Nations population, and many immigrants, plus working class families. He was in French Immersion at that school, but we withdrew him and moved him to another school; we were unhappy with the dynamic in the French Immersion programme (i.e. bullying), and would have rather kept him in one school.

My main observation at that school was that it was atomized. There were many single-parent families, where the primary caregiver obviously had little time to spend with their child. So a lot of the energy of the school was aimed at providing support to the children.
posted by My Dad at 5:54 PM on May 8, 2017


If the Greens ever want to get elected, they should recognize a few facts of life, or rename themselves "The Engineer's Disease Party", because that's what they are.

Do you ever wonder if the intense hatred and constant insults directed towards the Greens by the NDP and supporters over the last three decades and more just might, even a little bit, have made them a little annoyed? Do you think some bridges might have been burned? Because the anger over votes that the NDP feels they somehow own is very real, it can be very intense, and it really isn't going to help in the long term.

It really is pretty sad for democracy in BC that a lot of people who probably would agree with a lot of the Green platform tow the party line about how the Greens are somehow horrible, stupid people for having the temerity to stand up for what they believe in. Even if you don't agree with Green policies, are we all so in love with US-style two party systems that the presence of a third party is the worst thing to happen ever? Do we really think the corporate-money party versus the union-money party is the way to go?

I think we can do better in BC politics.
posted by ssg at 7:36 PM on May 8, 2017 [2 favorites]


So French immersion schools are the nice Canadian version of private schools for ambitious parents?

Here's a piece on issues regarding French Immersion that references the private school perception. It's certainly a thing here in the small Manitoban city I live in, and I'd be lying if it wasn't something we're considering.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 8:10 PM on May 8, 2017


For a lot of people the environment is their number one issue, and they really, really don't trust the NDP on the environment. That might be a little unfair to the NDP, but it's not wholly unfair.
posted by Rumple at 8:12 PM on May 8, 2017


I live in southern Ontario but I grew up in French speaking northern Ontario. So yeah our French immersion looks very different then Victoria or Vancouver. My friend's kids went through the programme at one of the inner city elementary schools, the only person of colour was a single Indian kid, the rest were white middle class kids. That was through the whole time they were there.

Glad there is diversity in French immersion in BC, the only places I see real diversity here are in the "less desirable" schools, like the one my son attends, which get the bulk of the new Canadians. I've known people to move out of my neighbourhood to avoid having their kids go to that school, which is pretty sad and ridiculous.
posted by Ashwagandha at 10:06 PM on May 8, 2017


clawsoon: "So French immersion schools are the nice Canadian version of private schools for ambitious parents? Seems about right."

Well leaving aside the benefits of learning a second language in general; being able to communicate in both official languages is a large structural advantage in Canada when looking for work. Probably ambitious parents want that for their kids but enrolment locally has actually been declining even as a percentage.

Ashwagandha: "I haven't seen a French immersion only public school (maybe in the big cities?) as most of the schools here which offer French Immersion also offer English track programmes as well. "

It's pretty common here in BC; my city of about 80K has a french immersion only school track. Which we pulled my daughter out of last year because of issues with the instruction despite her having been in immersion since 19 months old when she was in day care. Bizarrely she now has to take french in English middle school which just might be a waste of her time considering she she is fluent/literate in French.
posted by Mitheral at 9:52 AM on May 9, 2017


It really is pretty sad for democracy in BC that a lot of people who probably would agree with a lot of the Green platform tow the party line about how the Greens are somehow horrible, stupid people for having the temerity to stand up for what they believe in.

My issue is that Weaver is a truly awful, opportunistic politician who will do anything to attain more power. He supported Cark's budgets, came out for tun of the river private power projects that have essentially bankrupted BC Hydro which once had some of the lowest Hydro rates in North America, and said he would support a Clark minority government.

He has turned the Greens into BC Liberal Lite, looking to be the party of the centre, and if the Liberals win again my own sense is he will be the new environmental minister.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:36 PM on May 9, 2017 [1 favorite]


For a lot of people the environment is their number one issue, and they really, really don't trust the NDP on the environment.

This is true, but the solutions to environmental problems are social and economic, not scientific. The Green party is ultimately liberal-technocratic, while the NDP is democratic-socialist. These are big differences that people seem to have difficulty recognising or articulating. Unfortunately, the development of "trust" isn't necessarily a rational process.
posted by klanawa at 6:31 PM on May 9, 2017


The BC NDP have a problem in that much of the big money jobs outside of the service sector are in resources extraction (forestry, mining, fishery) and it's is tough to have a strong environmental stance and simultaneously convince people in those industries to vote for you. And they don't to grab even the low hanging fruit like making big waves about their plank to stop raw log exports.

And they are on the right side of a $15 minimum wage which has pitted them squarely against business interests; even many small, uh "hippy", businesses that would otherwise support them.

Then again the Liberals are the only ones I've seen putting up advertising signs in provincial parks.
posted by Mitheral at 6:53 PM on May 9, 2017


My issue is that Weaver is a truly awful, opportunistic politician who will do anything to attain more power.

I love this! I mean, sure, the guy probably likes power. Almost all politicians do. But the idea that someone will do anything to attain more power, so they choose to run for the Green party, who had never before elected an MLA, is hilarious. Yup, that's the path of someone who cares for nothing but power!
posted by ssg at 7:55 PM on May 9, 2017 [3 favorites]


Well its possible it was his third choice. Or hes power mad and an enviromentalist.
posted by Mitheral at 8:00 PM on May 9, 2017


The Green party is ultimately liberal-technocratic, while the NDP is democratic-socialist. These are big differences that people seem to have difficulty recognising or articulating.

Do you want to offer even a shred of evidence to back up your claims about who is liberal-technocratic and who is democratic-socialist? Because people might have difficulty recognising or articulating them because you just made this up.
posted by ssg at 8:01 PM on May 9, 2017


I happen to know Andrew Weaver and I would definitely not say he is power hungry. He firmly believes in the problem of global warming and everything else is a means to an end. He also very strongly supports education, regardless of whatever he may have said to the BCTF. Probably history will be in his favour.

I didn't vote Green mind you because fuck the Liberals.
posted by Rumple at 8:32 PM on May 9, 2017 [2 favorites]


Well, it's bedtime here on the other side of the Rockies, but I have to say that the current leading numbers - 43 NDP 42 BCLib 2 Green would be a fascinating government. Good luck - we're all counting on you.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 9:41 PM on May 9, 2017


so last I looked it's a dead heat, "Liberals" and NDP both with 42 seats, and the remaining 3 going Green.

If this holds, the future will be different
posted by philip-random at 10:34 PM on May 9, 2017


I'm excited that George Chow, Jinny Simms, and Morgane Oger are all ahead! We'll have a great NDP team.
posted by Banknote of the year at 10:56 PM on May 9, 2017


Looks like a few ridings may possibly be close enough to be undecided until absentee ballots are counted. Which won't be for two weeks, if I'm understanding Elections BC correctly.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:11 PM on May 9, 2017


I love this! I mean, sure, the guy probably likes power. Almost all politicians do. But the idea that someone will do anything to attain more power, so they choose to run for the Green party, who had never before elected an MLA, is hilarious. Yup, that's the path of someone who cares for nothing but power!

You made a funny. Congratulations.

Weaver has gotten further in politics as the head of the Greens than he would have in either of the other two parties. What the Greens remind me of is the very early days of the current version of the Liberal party, back when they were led by Gordon Wilson. When they started to get somewhere they were taken over by the right wing remnants of the Socreds and Gordon Campbell and Howe Street. My point is nascent political parties are vulnerable and Weaver saw his best opportunity for prominence in the Greens.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 11:17 PM on May 9, 2017 [1 favorite]


however this plays out, Weaver has a strong hand to play. True colours due soon.
posted by philip-random at 11:19 PM on May 9, 2017 [1 favorite]


Yikes, this could still go any way -- polls just flipped to 44 - 40 - 3 which would give a liberal majority. But who the hell knows... if it is a minority it is a bloody narrow one.
posted by Arandia at 11:28 PM on May 9, 2017


Assuming the result is a minority government where Green hold the balance of power, the Liberals as incumbents will be invited to form government first, with the assistance of another party, in this case the Greens.

Of course, the NDP may offer the Greens a better deal, but I can't see it. NDP supporters, especially the ones who voted NDP this time around, loathe the Greens (I do). I think the best option for Horgan and the Greens is to step back, and give the Greens the rope to hang themselves. Link the Greens with the Libs. And, watch the Greens self-destruct in public.

Adriane Carr was on 690 just now saying that "Horgan is hard to work with." The Greens, as Carr's comments indicate, are unused to holding power, and making the compromises, and displaying the tact needed to simply cooperate together.

The gamble for the NDP in that case would be that in the next election the NDP will be viewed as the better option for a change in government.

This won't be over for a while. Too close to call with the advance votes and the absentee votes.
posted by My Dad at 11:32 PM on May 9, 2017 [2 favorites]


It looks like the whole election will hinge on the 9 vote win that the NDP has over the Liberals in Courtenay-Comox. If the Liberals win that recount and there aren't any big swings in the three other ridings, they have a majority. If it holds, then I'd be pretty surprised if we don't end up with a NDP and Green coalition - and I think that gets us electoral reform, campaign finance reform, and better climate action.
posted by ssg at 11:50 PM on May 9, 2017


Do you want to offer even a shred of evidence to back up your claims about who is liberal-technocratic and who is democratic-socialist?

Nah, I don't really want to fight about this as badly as you seem to. I can find things to be true and proclaim them so without submitting my evidence to you for assent. You are free to ignore them. Thanks for your interest.
posted by klanawa at 11:55 PM on May 9, 2017 [2 favorites]


And with the need to count the absentee ballots in Courtenay-Comox, we probably won't even know if the Liberals have a majority until that happens, which normally isn't for a while.
posted by ssg at 11:57 PM on May 9, 2017


It looks like the whole election will hinge on the 9 vote win that the NDP has over the Liberals in Courtenay-Comox

if it's all hanging on only nine or nineteen or ninety or even nine thousand votes, anybody who thinks they've got a functional mandate is delusional, which might well make this an excellent moment for electoral reform
posted by philip-random at 12:00 AM on May 10, 2017


I'm really surprised that no one on the CBC seems to be acknowledging that 9 votes in Courtenay-Comox is meaningless. There were more than 3000 absentee ballots there last time around!
posted by ssg at 12:05 AM on May 10, 2017 [1 favorite]


Weaver would have to bring his party along to form a coalition with the Liberals. I don't want to sound like I know all the Greens but it so happens (again) that I know the new Cowichan MLA very well. I would be super surprised if she went along with any coalition with the Liberals, not to mention the rank and file Green members are also likely to kick up a fuss. Weaver may be a pragmatist or an opportunist or whatever but the party as a whole are idealist.

My Dad, you can certainly hate the Greens, and I didn't vote for them either, but the NDP really needs to examine exactly why they have lost this slice of the electorate.
posted by Rumple at 12:55 AM on May 10, 2017 [3 favorites]


In terms of total numbers, the NDP gained five seats, while losing two to the Greens. The Liberals lost a number of seats, but that was mitigated by picking up two Independents.

There's a lot of talk about how the Greens stole votes from the NDP, but if you look at ridings where the NDP won decisively, the Greens were often the second choice party, squeezing out the Liberals.
posted by My Dad at 11:35 AM on May 10, 2017 [1 favorite]


There's a lot of talk about how the Greens stole votes from the NDP, but if you look at ridings where the NDP won decisively, the Greens were often the second choice party, squeezing out the Liberals.

I don't get the relevance? Maybe the NDP would have crushed the Liberals even more if not for the Green vote.

Also if I recall, the actual Conservative Party vote dropped from 5% to less than 1%. Most of those people probably voted Liberal.

But anyway, twenty years ago, the people now voting Green were almost certainly voting NDP. The NDP has not kept up with its traditional constituency on the environment, and if they now continue to pick a fight with the Greens that will probably not help them much.

If the Greens do prop up the Liberals, which I doubt, then they will implode next election almost for sure.
posted by Rumple at 12:23 PM on May 10, 2017 [2 favorites]


I think the Greens were a palatable option for traditional BC Liberal voters who are dissatisfied with the party but would never vote for the NDP.

"Liberal-technocratic" pretty much describes my political views, so I gladly voted for the Green party and am happy that they won my riding and may well hold the balance of power. I'm no fan of the BC Liberals and would never vote for them, but would have had to hold my nose voting for the NDP because they really weren't much better when they were in charge last time
posted by borsboom at 12:35 PM on May 10, 2017


>There's a lot of talk about how the Greens stole votes from the NDP, but if you look at ridings where the NDP won decisively, the Greens were often the second choice party, squeezing out the Liberals.

I don't get the relevance? Maybe the NDP would have crushed the Liberals even more if not for the Green vote.


I just don't buy the narrative that Greens bled votes away from the NDP. There were a couple of problems for the NDP this time:

1) they couldn't hold onto Saanich North or Cowichan

I think Cowichan is the one scenario where Greens took votes away from the NDP, so that's one seat. I don't think voters "swung" away from Holman in Saanich North to Olsen. The Greens were motivated and got out their vote.

So Cowichan is one seat where the Greens "took away" supposedly NDP votes.

2) they didn't win any new seats in the Interior or the north

This is the path to power for the NDP. They actually lost Skeena. Horgan didn't campaign north of I think Quesnel. I don't think the Greens played a spoiler role in these ridings.

As Richard Zussman noted, @bcndp lost all 3 seats (Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley, Skeena) where new candidates needed to meet equity policy.

I'm not sure if there is anything the NDP can do about it, since what seems to drive most interior voters is the question of jobs, specifically resource jobs. The NDP is now an urban party, and urban voters are generally not moved by resource jobs.

The good thing for the NDP is they practically swept the Lower Mainland, including Surrey, and took out four cabinet ministers.
posted by My Dad at 12:51 PM on May 10, 2017


"Liberal-technocratic" pretty much describes my political views,

Under Campbell, following his second election win, I think you could have called the Libs "technocratic", but under Clark they are very much a rudderless populist party. Clark's flagship BC Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership is the very antithesis of a technocratic policy -- it is very bad, economically nonsensical policy.
posted by My Dad at 12:54 PM on May 10, 2017


If the Greens do prop up the Liberals, which I doubt, then they will implode next election almost for sure.

yeah, I've been resolutely negative toward the Greens throughout this election, not because I hate them or their platform, but because I Wanted To See The Liberals Lose!

But that was yesterday, today we have a whole new chessboard in front of us. I think it's great news that the Greens seem to have won three ridings, but only if they take this as impetus to further develop their vision, their base, their overall plan. Falling in line with the Libs would be the opposite of this and beyond cynical.

interesting times.




and don't discount the possibility of a disgruntled Liberal MLA or two crossing the floor to join the Greens
posted by philip-random at 1:08 PM on May 10, 2017


Clark's flagship BC Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership is the very antithesis of a technocratic policy -- it is very bad, economically nonsensical policy.
I completely agree. Both the BC Liberals and the NDP are really prone to this kind of stupidity (currently the BC Liberals moreso). Dropping or capping tolls on Metro Vancouver bridges is similarly nonsensical, when what is actually needed is a system of congestion charging throughout Metro Vancouver with the money that generates put into transit and active transportation.
posted by borsboom at 1:15 PM on May 10, 2017 [2 favorites]


Just to be clear, in describing myself as "liberal-technocratic" I didn't mean "Liberal" as in the BC Liberals. It was only capitalized because it was at the beginning of the sentence :)
posted by borsboom at 1:18 PM on May 10, 2017 [1 favorite]


borsboom: punctuation makes strange bedfellows
posted by Cosine at 1:30 PM on May 10, 2017 [3 favorites]


I just don't buy the narrative that Greens bled votes away from the NDP. There were a couple of problems for the NDP this time:

1) they couldn't hold onto Saanich North or Cowichan


Yes other than those two critical seats that the Greens took from them.

If the NDP keeps telling themselves that the Greens did not bleed votes away from them, then they are well and truly fucked. Denial is a pretty hard drug. Greens will never form government in this Province, but NDP will not either unless they listen to what green voters are telling them.
posted by Rumple at 1:37 PM on May 10, 2017


Greens will never form government in this Province, but NDP will not either unless they listen to what green voters are telling them.

what all voters (regardless of leaning) that I'm talking to are saying is: Electoral Reform Now. Which is more complex than many think, I suspect, because there are various options getting kicked around. But here's to action on that. Now.
posted by philip-random at 2:03 PM on May 10, 2017


If the NDP keeps telling themselves that the Greens did not bleed votes away from them, then they are well and truly fucked.

Just looking at the vote totals, I don't agree, though. The NDP needs more than Cowichan to win election. Saanich North is not a de facto NDP seat (usually Liberal). Neither is Oak Bay-Gordon Head (where I grew up, fwiw).

The NDP did well in Metro Van, increasing its seats. The NDP already has a green-ish platform that appeals to urban voters. What matters most to urban voters is affordability. Note that the three Green seats are all suburban and affluent (Cow Valley has Shawnigan and many hobby farms; it's also a suburb of Victoria).

The NDP did not do well regionally, where Greens presumably are not competitive anyway.

I still stand by my analysis: NDP is "fucked" if it cannot somehow appeal to rural / regional voters. See: NDP saw success in cities, but failures in rural B.C. were costly
posted by My Dad at 2:20 PM on May 10, 2017


Both the BC Liberals and the NDP are really prone to this kind of stupidity

Yes, as I was typing my missive I was thinking that the stupid homebuyers program, which pumps even more money into an overheated market, could have easily been an NDP program.
posted by My Dad at 2:22 PM on May 10, 2017


I'm sure you follow it much more closely than I do. However, I would guess that

1. In North Saanich Gulf Islands, the fact that they are now accustomed to having Elizabeth May as their Green MP is a strong source of influence provincially as well. Yes it was a Liberal riding provincially for a long time, however that itself was probably enabled by Green strength on the Gulf Islands cutting into NDP. Someone could drill down into results I suppose.

2. In Cowichan, the Green candidate had an extremely high local profile as an activist on the Shawnigan toxic soil dump. That was her claim to fame and it would be odd to say that people didn't vote for her primarily on the basis of her Green/environmental credentials. The NDP candidate had a much more traditional NDP background. I would also say that, very arguably, Shawnigan may be a suburb of Victoria but Cowichan certainly is not.

Anyway, time will tell: if the NDP don't get it together on the lack of trust they engender on the environment then they are alienating huge chunks of their constituency. Trying to appeal to the interior is a pipe dream, they have never been very strong in the interior with the odd exception here and there. Remember that the NDP governments of the 1990s were enabled by vote splitting on the right between Liberals and Socreds and then Liberals and Reform. Splitting on the left is a nightmare for them, probably cost Adrian Dix his shot, and which is only getting worse.
posted by Rumple at 3:26 PM on May 10, 2017


I just don't buy the narrative that Greens bled votes away from the NDP.

And the overall vote percentages really bear this out. The NDP vote was almost exactly the same (as a percent of the total vote) as last time. The Green vote doubled (up 9%). The Liberal vote was down 4% and the Conservatives were down 4% as well.

Of course, there is a lot going on and all kinds of shifts (not to mention different people choosing to vote or not), but in broad strokes it really doesn't look like the Greens are bleeding a lot of votes from the NDP. It looks a lot more like the Greens are drawing votes from the Liberals and possibly the Conservatives and the Greens are bringing out people who didn't vote previously (either they weren't inspired to or they were too young (Green support is stronger for younger folks)). I have no doubt that it does happen in specific ridings, but overall the Green vote doesn't seem to be coming from the NDP that much.

And I think if you look closely at specific ridings where there is a big shift from the NDP to the Greens, you do tend to see a lot of people who vote strategically for the NDP one election and then vote their conscience and vote Green the next election (especially when the Green candidate looks a lot more viable, e.g. as we see North Saanich Gulf Islands where in 2013 there definitely was a strong strategic voting movement, but then people saw that Adam was a viable candidate and voted for him in 2017). In that kind of situation, I think you really have Green voters who vote strategically for the NDP, rather than NDP voters who are being bled off by the Greens.

Depends how you look at it, but there is no denying that strategic voting has drawn a lot of votes to the NDP from the Greens over the years. Those people voting Green now is less about the NDP losing votes as much as it is about people voting for what they believe in.
posted by ssg at 9:50 PM on May 10, 2017


if the NDP don't get it together on the lack of trust they engender on the environment then they are alienating huge chunks of their constituency.

But shifting even more green than they are would win the NDP only two more seats - Cowichan and North Saanich. They already have a pretty green platform, opposing Kinder Morgan and tanker traffic.

If the NDP wants to win decisively they have to win in places like Kamloops and the northwest. And you do that by campaigning on jobs.

If the NDP goes even more green they will alienate the constituencies they won south of the Fraser -- the NDP won in part because they oppose punitive tolls on various bridges that penalize commuters in Surrey and so on.

They won in Surrey in part because of education. The core urban constituency of the NDP has more concerns than just tanker traffic. There is the idea of "social justice."
posted by My Dad at 9:58 AM on May 11, 2017


In the campaign narrative, the Greens would cost the NDP tight races. It appears they didn’t, and the Liberals underperformed in virtually all of the battlegrounds where the Greens grew their vote share.

It questions the idea that Green voters are just potential NDP supporters. They could be people looking for a third alternative.

posted by My Dad at 10:56 AM on May 11, 2017


yeah, it's absurd to say that every Green vote would otherwise be an NDP vote ... just as it's absurd to say that my NDP vote came from deep in my soul somewhere. It didn't. They were just the best option I could see here and now, 2017.

What is not absurd is to say that the NDP and their supporters better stop f***ing complaining about the vote-splitting and actually do something about it, which means electoral reform, which means NOT being roadblocks as they have been in the past both provincially (long story short -- their official silence in 2005 was deafening and very likely made the difference in the referendum falling short) and, more recently, federally*

* one of the main reasons given by the Trudeau Liberals for not going forward on reform is that they knew the NDP would not support anything but the proportional representation option, which is by far the most complex, effectively requiring a complete rethink of how Canadian governments have traditionally been both elected and ultimately organized. Seriously, try to find mention of anything other than the proportional option on the NDP website.
posted by philip-random at 11:52 AM on May 11, 2017 [3 favorites]


which is by far the most complex, effectively requiring a complete rethink of how Canadian governments have traditionally been both elected and ultimately organized

Not to let Trudeau off the hook, but it's infuriating how electoral reform quickly becomes a case of perfect being the enemy of the good. I'd be happy with STV, but I'd also be happy with ranked ballots or a second run-off election or pretty much any system where I don't have to try and watch polls and strategically vote. But it gets treated as one shot to fix every single flaw instead of getting people used to the idea of alternate voting systems and going from there.

The best / only good aspect of FPTP is that you don't need an explainer video by CGP Grey to understand how your vote got counted. But we had two votes for STV and the pamphlets still looked like rulebooks to The Cones of Dunshire.
posted by Gary at 1:16 PM on May 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


as somebody else put it a while back, if you can't explain it to a reasonably smart eleven year old in fifty words or less, it's not going to fly.
posted by philip-random at 2:06 PM on May 11, 2017


as somebody else put it a while back, if you can't explain it to a reasonably smart eleven year old in fifty words or less, it's not going to fly.
Plenty of other places use various different voting systems and it seems to work just fine. FPTP isn't actually all that easy to explain either, it's just what people are accustomed to. It's not exactly intuitive that a party that wins 16.7% of the vote only gets 3.5% of the representatives and isn't even considered an official party. In FPTP voters really need to understand the voting system in order to decide how to vote because of its unfairness (e.g. strategic voting etc). With a fairer system, you can vote your conscience with the knowledge that a reasonable approximation of the actual will of the people will be represented.
posted by borsboom at 2:56 PM on May 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


Electoral reform needs a charismatic crusader in a position of power to make it work. Politics is about emotion, and so far the discussion about electoral reform has been a didactic discussion championed by didactic people (e.g., Green supporters).
posted by My Dad at 7:31 PM on May 11, 2017 [1 favorite]


and so far the discussion about electoral reform has been a didactic discussion championed by didactic people (e.g., Green supporters).

I also know some Orange attired focus who do didactic rather well ...

But you're absolutely right about some charisma being required. Or just basic sales savvy.
posted by philip-random at 12:14 AM on May 12, 2017


Totally agree. It's not about the explanation (which will never be easy); it's about the story.
posted by borsboom at 6:30 AM on May 12, 2017




So... Norman Spector is part of the Green negotiation team. A bit of a shocker given his conservative leanings.

Here is Spector as part of the CBC On the Island political panel commenting on the election results and options for coalition or minority government
posted by chapps at 6:01 AM on May 18, 2017


Well! How long will this NDP-Green minority government last, and which wedge issue will it fall over?
posted by anthill at 3:37 PM on May 29, 2017


Or which NDP or Green MLA will cross the the floor to the Liberals a la David Emerson?
posted by Ashwagandha at 5:35 PM on May 29, 2017


A clever bit of parliamentary procedure fuckery that could preserve a Clark government: get an NDP or Green MLA elected Speaker before any supply votes can take place. Probably not going to happen.
posted by figurant at 7:52 PM on May 29, 2017


Well, this gets more interesting. Clark won't quit, recalling House
posted by nubs at 2:07 PM on May 30, 2017


I think the green mlas are unlikely to cross the floor. Even for cabinet seats; i think they are individuals who work differently, more on legacy than power. I thought Weaver might but dint think the others would. There was that one NDPer who was pro pipeline. Did he get elected?
posted by chapps at 5:47 PM on May 30, 2017


(Im not a green by the way, im a dipper).
posted by chapps at 5:48 PM on May 30, 2017


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