Fish's famous foul-up
October 15, 2017 7:29 AM   Subscribe

 
Apparently, in Hertford, Hereford, and Hampshire, hurricanes do occasionally happen.

Also, the rain in Spain is usually more common in the coastal and mountain regions. The central plain has a much more arid climate.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 7:38 AM on October 15, 2017 [31 favorites]


Ooh, I remember that. We went and watched a friend go windsurfing in the middle of it, after he retrieved his board from a few doors down where the wind had left it. We had to go find our dinghy the next day.
posted by dowcrag at 8:09 AM on October 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


I missed this is as I lived up North, but I will be right in the teeth of whatever of Ophelia comes in to Cornwall. The people I work with all study wind and wave movement and are super excited, and half of them are surfers so are even more excited. I suspect that the office might be quiet on Monday while they all pretend to be doing fieldwork.
posted by biffa at 8:21 AM on October 15, 2017 [4 favorites]


I hope my fellow Brits have sufficient tea and Jaffa cakes in house to ride out the storm tomorrow. Don't forget to check in on elderly neighbours during and afterwards, even if they start every conversation with "It's just like the Blitz".
posted by Wordshore at 8:48 AM on October 15, 2017 [11 favorites]


We just spent most of the weekend tearing down our giant rose arch and cutting back the enormous climbing rose and all the many varieties of clematis that have been growing on it since we built it fourteen years ago, because the most recent gale damaged it irreparably, and we were having nightmares of what could happen with the wreckage if the oncoming storm is anything like the one that happened 30 years ago.

I am really hoping this was an overreaction, but we live on the Wirral, and our routine gales are bad enough. Good luck to everyone in Ophelia's path.
posted by skybluepink at 9:06 AM on October 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


TV weather is so hyper exaggerated now that I can't imagine a weatherman underplaying anything. 22 deaths and 15 million trees, wow, that's a storm.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:09 AM on October 15, 2017 [1 favorite]




wow, winterhill can I come visit you and romp around on the moors like I'm Catherine Earnshaw??? it sounds amazing there.

and on a serious note, I do hope that all of you in Ophelia's path stay safe. I think we've had enough disaster lately...
posted by supermedusa at 10:42 AM on October 15, 2017 [4 favorites]


As an American who's watched three devastating hurricanes (and now a massive fire), please don't underestimate the power of this storm. From the news, it looks like Ophelia is heading towards a Southern Ireland landfall. Here in the US, storms can change course or strengthen pretty quick. There are also newcomers to coastal areas that have no idea how bad these storms are and elect to wait them out or; even worse, go out to the shore to watch the waves.

I know nothing about what kind of bad weather this area experiences; but if it's been 30 years since the last big storm, I'm guessing there may be a lot of folks who have no idea how bad this can potentially be. It is infinitely better to prepare or evacuate unnecessarily than it is to ride out a storm surge or 100 mph winds. This is my favorite place and people to visit and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Ophelia will weaken or veer out to sea. Please, please, please stay safe!
posted by jabo at 11:14 AM on October 15, 2017 [4 favorites]


jabo: speaking as someone on the east coast of Scotland ...

We're a long way north of the Caribbean, and consequently the air is a whole lot colder. Which means by the time Ophelia gets here it won't be able to hold anything like as much rain. We're seeing forecasts of 50-70mm of rain in England, which is a fair amount for a single day—but Houston got hit by up to 500mm in some places.

So our main threats are the storm surge and the wind. Ireland sits smack bang in Ophelia's path, so the waters will to some extent be abated before they reach the UK (and the west coast of Ireland is sparsely populated compared to the east). And as for wind, we get wind. Lots of wind. Like, we're Europe's wind turbine capital; hurricane force gusts are an annual occurrence in the north of Scotland, and the winds forecast from Ophelia aren't that far out of normal experience. We don't build homes out of sheetrock and timber, we build them out of brick and stone and concrete. So there will be some damaged roofs and some downed trees and travel chaos, but nothing that can't be cleaned up in a week.

Southern Ireland is going to catch it in the neck, but as noted, housing construction is generally more solid than you're used to in the States, and they're used to the sort of levels of rainfall that will be coming. Fingers crossed.
posted by cstross at 11:55 AM on October 15, 2017 [20 favorites]


cstross - Thanks for educating me on this. I thought the colder temps kept hurricanes away but figured this must be some powerful storm to make it up to your neighborhood.

Before Harvey hit Houston (where I grew up), I heard the usual nonsense that the news was exaggerated or the storm would never hit. One friend even went down to the coast to watch. We had right-wing radio argue the hurricane danger was overblown and a liberal plot. Most folks took the warnings to heart but many did not.

Hopefully, this level of stupid is limited to the US.
posted by jabo at 12:50 PM on October 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


Met Éireann have announced a red warning for all Ireland, schools, transport, childcare, universities all closing. I'm debating whether or not to go to work tomorrow. I work in a library in a County Council, they haven't announced closures yet, but I'm 15 miles from there along a tree lined road. Not sure I want to risk that. Especially as they are saying worst of the weather to hit us in the afternoon/evening when I'd be on the road back home.
posted by Fence at 1:26 PM on October 15, 2017 [3 favorites]


This is Bawbag all over again, isn't it?
posted by scruss at 2:20 PM on October 15, 2017


As mentioned in previous hurricane threads I do risk modelling for a reinsurance company and my office is in Dublin. As this NHC probability of tropical storm wind speed map shows, Ireland is getting this head on. Amusingly, up to a few hours ago, that map cut off at 60° north and 1° west - it just wasn't part of the model.

Here's a good post by Richard Dixon about the mechanics of the current situation, written several days ago but eerily prescient:
I would imagine that we'd likely see a "perfect (hybrid) storm" coming from:

a) a hurricane forming and remaining strong far out into the Atlantic over seas that are - for the time of year - anomalously warm and able to support a hurricane
b) a rapid acceleration under the influence of a strong mid-latitude jet-stream, carrying the system rapidly toward Europe, potentially re-intensifying as an extra-tropical system owing to the extra warmth in the system
In terms of potential damage, I reckon it could be bad/inconvenient but not apocalyptic. Irish houses are made from bricks or concrete rather than wood, although falling trees and roof slates are a definite danger. The country is like a dinner plate with a ring of low mountains around flat midlands - much of the coast is cliffs. My parents' house is only 200 m from the sea but a safe 40 m altitude.

Off the top of my head I can't think of any idiotic building locations like this insanity in Florida. Having said that, Cork city is spectacularly badly located, centred on an island in a river on a flood plain (although the north of the city is on a steep hill), and they're near the predicted landfall, and they flood pretty much every year anyway, so that might be a bad one.

But bear in mind that globally, Ireland is fairly windy on average. For example the winter before last (well, the 183 days Oct 15 - Mar 15) we had 87 days with gusts 50 km/h or higher and 29 days with gusts 75 km/h or higher.
posted by kersplunk at 2:49 PM on October 15, 2017 [2 favorites]


I hope my fellow Brits have sufficient tea and Jaffa cakes in house to ride out the storm tomorrow.

Ireland is going to be getting the brunt of the storm.

Southern Ireland is going to catch it in the neck, but as noted, housing construction is generally more solid than you're used to in the States, and they're used to the sort of levels of rainfall that will be coming.

....I am usually not catastrophic in hurricane threads, but....

I just now sent off an encouraging email to my friend in Cork to buck her up with the storm. I did some research into the strength of Ophelia (it's a Category 1) storm now. "That's weak," I told her. And I went to look up the strength of Hurricane Sandy, so I could try to encourage her with "shoot, Sandy was about a 3 or 4, so 1 is nothing...." and I learned that Hurricane Sandy was actually a category 1 storm. It was as destructive as it was because it had such a concentrated storm surge. That in turn flooded our subways and infrastructure to the point that New York city is still making repairs five years later.

Rain is only part of the equation. Tide and the force of the storm surge are another bit. Irish and UK houses may withstand rain, but can they withstand a storm surge of several feet?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:50 PM on October 15, 2017 [1 favorite]


Rain is only part of the equation. Tide and the force of the storm surge are another bit. Irish and UK houses may withstand rain, but can they withstand a storm surge of several feet?

If you put numbers into this site, Ireland should be pretty ok, Britain has some areas just as low lying as Holland or Denmark but they're not getting the brunt of this one.
posted by kersplunk at 2:57 PM on October 15, 2017


Ireland and Britain have a large tidal range, and as it's not full moon or new moon at the moment, high tide heights at Cork are 50 cm below what they could be (3 metres below at Clevedon, my nearest sea), so there's a couple of feet of leeway already. And the tidal range itself means that there's less building close to sea level, and most buildings are substantially higher above sea level than New York.

So basically, a storm surge seems unlikely to me. Damage to coastal infrastructure seems very likely, though.

The land at the southern end of the North Sea has low areas extremely vulnerable to flooding, but it's out of the track of the hurricane. It was extremely badly hit in 1953, with thousands of deaths. The parts with functioning government (London & The Netherlands) have been protected from a repeat of that. The rest of the area evacuates when it's under threat, and hasn't been severely hit since then.
posted by ambrosen at 3:30 PM on October 15, 2017 [2 favorites]


I think people aren't as likely to build right on the water in Ireland (compared with Florida) because the water is cold as hell and no one wants the damp when you don't have A/C to dry you out. So, I hope storm surge will not be as big a problem.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:14 PM on October 15, 2017


so I might find myself up on Ilkley Moor. With a hat.
Please check in with us when ta get back, otherwise we will be looking askance at the doocks for quite some time.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:17 PM on October 15, 2017 [4 favorites]


Live Coverage, Here
posted by alex_skazat at 5:10 PM on October 15, 2017


I was in Galway back in February for things, and happened to be in town as a particularly nasty stretch of weather set in. Not a named storm or anything, just a bit of sideways rain. Being the sort of American who packs waterproof boots, I didn't let it slow me down much, just head down, charge on, meet at the pub later. Everyone I met was amazed that I was out at all, much less on foot. Turns out they'd stopped the trains, and issued travel warnings, all for what I considered a light blow.

Dear kind folk of SW Ireland, do be careful. Having sat out two tropical storms in Central Georgia this year, I'm inclined to be cautious. This is real tropical weather, even by my somewhat differing standards. With love, the SE US.

But still, I don't get out of bed for less than a Cat. 2 storm, and don't stock up on bread and beer unless it's Cat 3... because I'm dumb like that. See also, walking around in a camel hair coat in a blow rather than a raincoat, because: "It was good enough for Mallory!" "Didn't he die, though?" "Yes, but stylishly..."
posted by 1f2frfbf at 5:18 PM on October 15, 2017 [6 favorites]


but Houston got hit by up to 500mm in some places

Mathing... mathing... no, it was much worse than that. We got 48"/1219mm where I live. According to ABC News, the max was 51.88"/1318mm in Cedar Bayou.

Good luck, Ireland, good luck, UK! While Harvey was keeping the streets full but the power was on, my daughter and I decided to watch something flood-related on Netflix and ended up with the 2007 Robert Carlyle masterpiece "Flood", giving it the full MST3K treatment. (Is there a reason no one climbs to the second story or higher in that movie? Are there really random giant pits in London to fall into during a flood? Can Robert Carlyle make anything watchable, or does even he have limits?)

How many people will be injured yelling "Get thee to a nunnery!"?
posted by BeeDo at 7:34 PM on October 15, 2017


To be honest I'm not really worried about structural damage and flooding (she said hopefully). I'm in the midlands so fingers crossed we won't get it too bad. More worried about trees falling. I live out the country, all the roads round here are lined with trees, so I've decided not to risk work today. Don't want to get trapped the wrong side of a fallen tree, or worse, on my way home this evening. It's a little blowy out at the moment, but nothing serious. I think I heard on the radio that the lights are going out in Kerry, but was feeding the dogs, so might have gotten that wrong.
posted by Fence at 12:31 AM on October 16, 2017 [1 favorite]


To be honest I'm not really worried about structural damage...

posted by Fence


Hmmm.
posted by Wordshore at 2:34 AM on October 16, 2017


You should be able to see the data feed from the wavebuoys we have out on the south coast of Cornwall, wave height has picked up substantially since 4am, its due to peak later today. Nothing huge yet, I think the record wave we've recorded here is 9m (but my memory may be telling lies).
posted by biffa at 3:58 AM on October 16, 2017


Well, Ophelia is definitely here in force in Cork city now. I've still got power but it looks like there are quite a few outages. No doubt it's all small potatoes next to a proper hurricane but I'm fairly sure it's the worst weather I've ever experienced in this country. Schools, the university, and many local businesses are closed today. I hope people are taking it seriously and staying indoors, because it's serious weather and we don't get an awful lot of that here.
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 4:08 AM on October 16, 2017 [2 favorites]


"We don't build homes out of sheetrock and timber, we build them out of brick and stone and concrete."

It's like some people didn't even listen to the message in the three little pigs as regards wind resistant construction standards. (That was the moral right?)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:25 AM on October 16, 2017


the 2007 Robert Carlyle masterpiece "Flood"

Oh, and weirdly, I walked through the set of that on my way to get a curry.
I think they were filming on Fournier Street or thereabouts and had big hoses and whatnot all over the place.
We stopped for a chat and someone described the plot to us. Sounded terrible.
I'd always intended to watch it someday. Still haven't.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:28 AM on October 16, 2017


Ireland and Britain have a large tidal range, and as it's not full moon or new moon at the moment, high tide heights at Cork are 50 cm below what they could be (3 metres below at Clevedon, my nearest sea), so there's a couple of feet of leeway already. And the tidal range itself means that there's less building close to sea level, and most buildings are substantially higher above sea level than New York.

this is a comfort - thank you!

I've heard that Ophelia was already downgraded out of hurricane status when it made landfall; however, my friend griped that Desmond was strong enough to blow some tiles off her roof, and I saw a scary bit of footage on Twitter of the entire roof of a primary school in Limerick blowing away all in one piece; any word thus far of the impact?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:09 AM on October 16, 2017


The sky outside in London is a sickly yellowy brown. It's so dark outside (it's 1520 here) that the construction site next to me has put all it's lights on and the crane operators have come down.

It's looking super apocalyptic.
I've never really weather like this before.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:24 AM on October 16, 2017 [1 favorite]


I wonder if those skies have something to do with the wildfires in Portugal and Spain right now.
posted by rollick at 7:27 AM on October 16, 2017


I was curious about what the forecasters meant by "phenomenal" seas, then I saw a tweet which said the Kinsale Gas Platform had measured a wave height of 14.2m, and that anything over 14m counted as "phenomenal".

The Fastnet Lighthouse seems to have measured the highest gust windspeed as 103 knots/190km per hour.
posted by Azara at 7:28 AM on October 16, 2017


Photo of London skies on twitter
posted by rollick at 7:45 AM on October 16, 2017 [2 favorites]


Sahara desert dust apparently.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:51 AM on October 16, 2017


This is Not Fun. The pink sun this morning was cool, but I'm really not enjoying this part at all, and we're not even in the direct path of this thing. Husband currently works for a client down on the docks in Liverpool, and says the waves on the Mersey are impressive, to put it mildly.
posted by skybluepink at 7:55 AM on October 16, 2017 [1 favorite]


Sahara dust has all kinds of interesting effects. It provides minerals that the rainforests in Brazil depend on. It gets deposited in thick layers offshore West Africa that look like reservoir rock on well logs, but aren't because the dust is as fine as flour - it has low porosity. And it sparks a lot of hurricanes.
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:04 PM on October 16, 2017 [2 favorites]


The waves off Cornwall were a little disappointing. We came home via the beach this evening and there was hardly anything going on. I was interested to see what the town on the other side of the Peninsula that protects the bay we live on was like as that can really kick off in storms, it turns out it was messier over there: Porthleven twitter search.
posted by biffa at 12:46 PM on October 16, 2017


« Older a small win against 'just trash it' attitude   |   "we should not expect the first NS-NS GWs to be... Newer »


This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments