Fear and Trembling and the Sickness Unto Death
March 15, 2018 12:50 PM   Subscribe

The Trump Show, Episode 22: amid deadly showdowns with Russia, North Korea, Iran, and the UAE, the President gets tough with Canada. And there's oh, so much more inside.

-- Republicans reel from a special election loss in a deeply red, gerrymandered PA district
-- Mueller subpoenas Trump Organization financial docs, crossing Donald's bright red line
-- Russia's blatant nerve agent attack in UK finally gets this administration to slap them with a silk handkerchief; massive retaliation expected
-- Republicans are caught purging the State Dept on ideological and ethnic grounds
-- Neo-Nazis are now literally cuckholding each other
-- Jared, Ivanka, McMaster and Jeff Sessions are all rumored to be getting forced out of the administration soon
and
-- Trump finally meets his match in public discourse manipulation: one Stormy Daniels
posted by msalt (2257 comments total) 117 users marked this as a favorite
 
Sarah Sanders has an explanation for why Donald Trump admitted to contradicting Justin Trudeau and claiming that the US has a trade deficit with Canada, despite his admission that "I didn’t even know. ... had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’", and despite the US not actually having a trade deficit with Canada. Sarah Sanders' explanation is that the Federal Government's figures are wrong and the US does in fact have a trade deficit with Canada, and that is what Trump was referring to, accurately, despite his explicit acknowledgment that he didn't know whether there was a trade deficit. So. That's solved now.

In related news, Sarah Sanders was not able to provide the corrected trade data she was referring to, but she knows that "we have it and will be happy to provide it to you". How exciting! I'm excited.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:53 PM on March 15, 2018 [69 favorites]


Mod note: Official reminder: help keep these threads information-dense and not a headache to moderate. If you haven't read that MetaTalk, give it a go; if you have but not recently, give it another skim. Help us help you help us help you.
posted by cortex (staff) at 12:54 PM on March 15, 2018 [29 favorites]


Sarah Sanders also had an explanation for why the President of the United States said this:
We send a car to Japan, they analyze it for four weeks before they decide to send it back because it’s not environmentally friendly. … One of the car companies actually had a car made and it was the most environmentally perfect car, cost them a fortune. They spent a fortune. … But they wanted to see if they could get it in [to Japan]. And it, they were going crazy. Four days went by. Then five days. And they were ready to approve it and they said, no, no, we have to do one more test. It’s called the bowling-ball test, do you know what that is? That’s where they take a bowling ball from 20 feet up in the air and they drop it on the hood of the car. And if the hood dents, then the car doesn’t qualify. Well, guess what, the roof dented a little bit, and they said, nope, this car doesn’t qualify. It’s horrible, the way we’re treated. It’s horrible.
Nobody knows what the President was referring to, because what he said was not true, but, said Sarah Sanders, there is an explanation.

The explanation is that "obviously the President was joking".

Yes. The paragraph in blockquote that I just posted here is an obvious joke, by the President. If you don't find the President's joke to be funny, try reading it again now you understand it's a joke. Maybe it will be funny the second time.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:56 PM on March 15, 2018 [106 favorites]




From the Democratic gains in recent elections, it seems clear that while Trump is popular with his base, he's unpopular -- and massively so -- with everyone else. Saccone defined himself as "Trump before Trump" and it wasn't enough, which ought to strike some fear into Republican politicians everywhere.

Democrats need to draw the line and define Republican politicians everywhere as the party of Trump. They should not let the likes of Ryan and McConnell pretend to disapprove of Trump while supporting his agenda (or expecting him to support theirs). They should force Republicans to abandon Trump loudly and publicly or go down to humiliating electoral defeat.

Trump's bullying and bluster has always covered up for the fact that he is a loser. Which makes him a perfect Republican, and Democrats should never let America forget it.
posted by Gelatin at 12:58 PM on March 15, 2018 [26 favorites]


I have thought for a while that the first question about anything Trump does should be whether it was a joke. Put them on the record before it's used as an excuse, with the double-duty of obviating any more detail to the question. "Yes? OK, let's move on, then: why would he joke about something like that?"
posted by rhizome at 1:00 PM on March 15, 2018 [22 favorites]


I'm not a professional comedian or anything, but it seems to me that if your personal spokesperson has to come out and explain to the world that something you said was "obviously" a joke, then not only was it not obvious, it was a shitty joke.

(Also, it was not a joke, he is a senile person who wasn't very intelligent to begin with.)
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:03 PM on March 15, 2018 [66 favorites]


A little political gaming levity for your afternoon: "How could we elect Robotnik?!"

"He's going to build a giant egg to keep all the disgusting animals in there!"
posted by Servo5678 at 1:04 PM on March 15, 2018 [10 favorites]


I have thought for a while that the first question about anything Trump does should be whether it was a joke.

Or, every time (literally every time) they say something was a joke follow up with an enormous list of all the other lies he's told and ask if they were also a joke.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 1:12 PM on March 15, 2018 [16 favorites]


Zinke responded: "Oh, konnichiwa"

Another day, another five-alarm-fire of blatant racism and general stupidity from a cabinet member which will be largely ignored because of all the other fires.

My jaw is on the floor. I'm so angry at this. And I'm angrier still at where it fits in the context of this gigantic shitshow.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:18 PM on March 15, 2018 [164 favorites]



I have thought for a while that the first question about anything Trump does should be whether it was a joke.


what if we just skipped a beat to an automatic, "Mr. President, that's not funny." Regardless of what he says. It would deny he and his team that fallback.
posted by philip-random at 1:20 PM on March 15, 2018 [27 favorites]


Hadn't seen this VF article posted yet: Robert Mueller Is Still Laying the Groundwork

No big bombshells here, but I did find this last part interesting (and alarming):

When it comes to the 2016 American presidential election, however, the Putin regime looks increasingly unwilling to follow rules of any kind. “I suspect Skripal was talking to Christopher Steele or someone on Christopher Steele’s team,” Carpenter says, referring to the former British spy who in 2016 compiled the “dossier” of alleged ties between Trump and Russia. “That is why this got Putin’s ire up, and so that’s why they went after him. The Kremlin’s No. 1 goal here is to intimidate anyone that may have talked to Steele or any of his associates, or who might cooperate with Mueller. Yeah, it’s pretty ominous. It’s a really, really bad development.”

Overreading or connecting the dots? Haven't seen anyone else suggesting Skripal is a message to Mueller.

Also, following up on this George Nader pedophilia stuff from the previous thread:

There, special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators stopped Nader, people familiar with the case said. His electronics were seized and he was then allowed to go to his lawyer. Nader later agreed to cooperate with Mueller’s investigation, said the people with knowledge of the case as it pertains to Nader.

Given Nader's history, I wonder what they found on his electronics and if that's why they've got his, um, cooperation. I wonder if they knew what they might find.
posted by cudzoo at 1:21 PM on March 15, 2018 [27 favorites]


The VF article's headline reads, "MUELLER HAS LAID THE GROUNDWORK: WHY HIS NEXT TARGETS COULD INCLUDE ROGER STONE"
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:28 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


Overreading or connecting the dots? Haven't seen anyone else suggesting Skripal is a message to Mueller.

Brings to mind that top secret security briefing last year when all of the senators emerged looking ashen and shaken.
posted by Celsius1414 at 1:30 PM on March 15, 2018 [33 favorites]


The Maine Republican who threw slurs at Emma Gonzalez of Parkland, FL for her gun reform advocacy has an opponent for that House seat.
Eryn Gilchrist, a 28-year-old Bates College graduate who lives in Greene, ME, and works for a medical device company, filed her paperwork on Thursday

There's a link to donate to her campaign in the article, for those interested.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:32 PM on March 15, 2018 [130 favorites]




Zinke responded: "Oh, konnichiwa"

Let us be clear, by the way. This was not a closed door meeting. This was not friends shooting the shit. Not that either would've been, y'know, excusable. But Zinke is on camera doing this. There is video with sound. Because it was a hearing of the fucking House Committee on Natural Resources

and a Congresswoman just told him about learning that her grandfather was interned

and the Secretary of the Interior responds

OH

KONNICHIWA

LOOK AT THE REACTION OF THE WOMEN IN THE BACKGROUND
posted by joyceanmachine at 1:41 PM on March 15, 2018 [63 favorites]


by the way, from the splinternews article by molly osberg that atomeyes linked to:
“Oh, konnichiwa,” Zinke said, smiling, using a term normally meant for the afternoon. “I think it’s still ‘ohayo gozaimasu’ [good morning], but that’s okay,” Hanabusa responded, after a brief but painful silence.
i just
posted by joyceanmachine at 1:42 PM on March 15, 2018 [71 favorites]



LOOK AT THE REACTION OF THE WOMEN IN THE BACKGROUND


Apparently the tweet was deleted.
posted by Autumnheart at 1:44 PM on March 15, 2018 [8 favorites]


Parrott stood on a box outside the trailer and watched Heimbach and Jessica have sex inside, according to a police report. When the box broke under Parrott’s weight, he entered the trailer to confront them.

Now that Nazi Love Triangle story truly is a ray of sunlight in dark, dark times. Thank you, universe ❤️
posted by The Toad at 1:44 PM on March 15, 2018 [17 favorites]


LOOK AT THE REACTION OF THE WOMEN IN THE BACKGROUND

Apparently the tweet was deleted.


It was worth hunting for: YouTube link
posted by gladly at 1:47 PM on March 15, 2018 [23 favorites]


I don't know how to link to a specific time on youtube, but it's 12:18 on this video, watch the reactions of the two women behind him. Jaws literally drop.
posted by Think_Long at 1:48 PM on March 15, 2018 [12 favorites]


Mod note: One comment removed. Should-be-needless reminder that criticizing racist fuckos by inventing some additional racist imagery for us all to imagine is not doing it right.
posted by cortex (staff) at 1:48 PM on March 15, 2018 [15 favorites]


Re: trade with Canada, one angle is the fetishization of certain types of industries. Trudeau was foolishly focused on the monetary value rather than how manly it makes the U.S. look.

"Goods" are proper manly jobs, like resource extraction and manufacturing. "Services" are effete coastal elite jobs and can be ignored.
posted by RobotHero at 1:50 PM on March 15, 2018 [13 favorites]


From TweetLand:

Liz Cheney: The Enhanced Interrogation Program saved lives, prevented attacks, & produced intel that led to Osama bin Laden. The techniques were the same as those used on our own people in the SERE program. No one should slander the brave men & women who carried out this crucial program.

Meghan McCain: My father doesn’t need torture explained to him.
posted by Dashy at 1:51 PM on March 15, 2018 [135 favorites]


Okay...

One: Nazi Love Triangle is probably, at this moment, being written down on a punk rocker’s list of possible band names,

Two: Obviously, once Mueller lays the groundwork, his next step is to get the Stone, and

Three: the existentialist title for this thread, and its description as an episode, as if this were some horrible alt-reality dystopia show like Man in the High Castle, with every week bringing a new dramatic outrage, is so achingly apt I can’t even.
posted by darkstar at 1:51 PM on March 15, 2018 [15 favorites]


Re trade with Canada, I assume that on the various news outlets in the US this will now be debated by the experts, with some of the experts supporting the Trump view. Something along the likes of: "When the President says we have a trade deficit with Canada he is thinking of some numbers. We don't have those numbers but the President has them, he's looked at them, and he says we have a trade deficit. The question is how are we going to respond? We'll need to get tough with Canada."
posted by Vindaloo at 1:56 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


My new thread reminder: with everything going on, let’s all remember to be nice to each other here. Everyone is stressed and anxious and angry so let’s be good to each other.
posted by skycrashesdown at 1:56 PM on March 15, 2018 [29 favorites]


Obvious but needs stating: Black Children Will Be the Victims of Armed Teachers
posted by Artw at 1:57 PM on March 15, 2018 [83 favorites]


I'm not a professional comedian or anything, but it seems to me that if your personal spokesperson has to come out and explain to the world that something you said was "obviously" a joke, then not only was it not obvious, it was a shitty joke.

I am a professional comedian, and this was not a joke at all. It was a colorful "zinger" story, a pointed but apocryphal political anecdote like the old one about the bureaucrat/politican who ordered the firing of half of the cattle guards or Ronald Reagan's tale of the WW2 pilot who could have parachuted out but chose to say with a tail gunner who was stuck in his seat -- which turned out to be a scene from an old movie.

It's also not funny, but these stories are designed for audience reaction of a chuckle (or a tear), so they have the vague form of a joke. Mostly they're manipulative bullshit though.
posted by msalt at 1:58 PM on March 15, 2018 [35 favorites]


Much of the Trump “joke” oeuvre consists of “kidding on the square” - he says it like it’s a joke, and his audience is supposed to laugh, but actually he really means it and just wants the deniability of a joke format.

(that he means something and that it is true of course being two different things)
posted by Artw at 2:02 PM on March 15, 2018 [20 favorites]




Besides the incoherent sputtering, of course, I am boggled because saying "konnichiwa" to Asian women, I thought, 'usually' occurs in the context of a random catcall or a racist assumption that a woman you haven't actually heard speak probably doesn't speak English. But.... he just heard her speak perfect English at length. WTF.
posted by nakedmolerats at 2:10 PM on March 15, 2018 [4 favorites]


This is a good read: Stormy Daniels Is Crushing Trump At His Own Game:
One remarkable feature of Stormy Daniels' chess match with Trump is that shame — this White House's usual instrument against its adversaries — isn't working. Porn stars don't find shame especially useful, and Daniels is no exception. This poses a problem for the president: Daniels (aka Stephanie Gregory Clifford) is utterly unembarrassed about profiting off her connection to him. She's unembarrassed in general. As the president's most virulent defenders have come after her, she's parried their attacks with jokes that defang them. Cracks about her age earn GILF humor, cracks about her being a prostitute have her crowing with glee. She's so good at this that her attackers often end up deleting their tweets; it's just not worth it.

The entire Trump playbook — imply that an enemy's motives are shameful, dishonest, and not what they claim — falls apart when they have no interest in seeming better than they are. Daniels is open about the fact that her motive is money. Just as Trump has always been.

posted by TwoStride at 2:10 PM on March 15, 2018 [130 favorites]


It was worth hunting for: YouTube link

The description under the video, hosted by an account called "House Natural Resources Committee Democrats":
The House Natural Resources Committee holds a March 15, 2018, hearing with Secretary Ryan Zinke on the Trump administration's radical FY2019 budget proposal, which cuts popular programs and does nothing to improve conservation around the country. This video is part two.
Which is all true enough, but like, could you guys maybe mention the most remarkable part of the video? The part that is the reason why anyone is watching it?
posted by saturday_morning at 2:12 PM on March 15, 2018 [4 favorites]


Manafort Urges Judge to Dismiss Laundering and Lobbying Case.
In the filing, Manafort’s lawyers argued that Mueller exceeded his authority under an appointment that directed him to investigate possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Mueller can also investigate other matters that arise from his investigation, but he’s abused that authority, according to the filing.
posted by scalefree at 2:13 PM on March 15, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Honorable Rep. Hanabusa is my rep. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but out here in Hawaii, unless you are somebody's Japanese language teacher and are trying to make them speak Japanese, you'd almost never greet a fellow local in Japanese no matter what their ancestral ethnicity. I mean, its embarrassing and horrifying that this even needs to be said, but you don't greet your fellow Americans - especially (but not limited to) fellow Americans who you don't actually know personally - with a language you imagine their ancestors once spoke. Rep Hanabusa showed tremendous restraint in not immediately responding "And guten tag to you, Herr Zinke."
posted by Joey Michaels at 2:15 PM on March 15, 2018 [233 favorites]


The techniques were the same as those used on our own people in the SERE program...

This is just your periodic reminder that the SERE program was designed to prepare our soldiers and help them avoid cracking in the face of the horrible, despicable, Geneva-conventions-violating tactics of our totalitarian enemies who we fully expected to fight dirty. The entire justification for SERE was that "our adversaries are going to commit such terrible atrocities that we need to give you special training and support to survive." This isn't a defense, it's an admission of war crimes. Basically a statement that we have knowingly forfeited any moral high ground we might ever have had in this area.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 2:19 PM on March 15, 2018 [125 favorites]


Zinke's been doing great lately. Yesterday he said he never flew on a private jet because the private planes he was on had propellers [real].

He also clarified that he had never been to parties where rich people get together to drink champagne and laugh at poor people. Those parties served asti.
posted by 0xFCAF at 2:22 PM on March 15, 2018 [43 favorites]


The Maine Republican who threw slurs at Emma Gonzalez of Parkland, FL for her gun reform advocacy has an opponent for that House seat.
Eryn Gilchrist, a 28-year-old Bates College graduate who lives in Greene, ME, and works for a medical device company, filed her paperwork on Thursday


Wwwwwwow. I have never run for my credit card that fast in my life. And it appears that she has raised nearly all of the stated $50,000 goal, already. On day one? Give 'em hell, Eryn!
posted by scottatdrake at 2:26 PM on March 15, 2018 [75 favorites]


I'm willing to believe Trump wasn't deliberately lying about that meeting because if he had the mental capacity to distinguish between separate talks with the same head of state we wouldn't coming up with theories about Japanese bowling-ball drops.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:27 PM on March 15, 2018 [4 favorites]




Liz Cheney: The Enhanced Interrogation Program saved lives, prevented attacks, & produced intel that led to Osama bin Laden. The techniques were the same as those used on our own people in the SERE program. No one should slander the brave men & women who carried out this crucial program.

"The techniques were the same as those used on our own people in the SERE program. " is a lie of omission of detail. The SERE program exposed troops to the methods. Not the full technique.

The full technique was repeated simulated drowning repeated in the 20 minute sessions every second day for months with no end in sight. The amount of simulated suffocations endured by the victims of torture in the Enhanced Interrogation Program were quite high. KSM was reportedly waterboard 183 times. Remember that Christopher Hitchens broke after being water boarded just once for a few seconds despite being very motivated to not break (though perhaps not a man known for resolve or fortitude).

No American soldier has been subjected to the full extent of that by American interrogators.

It was so dumb and evil that the FBI walked out on the interrogations because it was too evil for them.
posted by srboisvert at 2:29 PM on March 15, 2018 [85 favorites]


the other thing is that Hanabusa just finished telling an anecdote about her Japanese-American grandfather’s internment, which means that she’s at least third-generation, which makes treating her automatically as a Japanese speaker even more racist, if that’s even possible.
posted by murphy slaw at 2:30 PM on March 15, 2018 [50 favorites]


Which is all true enough, but like, could you guys maybe mention the most remarkable part of the video? The part that is the reason why anyone is watching it?

Come to see the jerk who's in a competition for Biggest Turd in the trump Shithole, stay for the thoughtful, informative Dem discussion on how they're dismantling important programs and conservation efforts.
posted by NorthernLite at 2:33 PM on March 15, 2018 [7 favorites]


At some level this is pointless gossip, but since we had a long discussion last thread about spousal communications privilege...

TPM Livewire: Vanessa Trump Files For Divorce From Trump Jr.
... Vanessa Trump reportedly filed for an uncontested proceeding where “she’s not expecting a legal battle over custody of the couple’s five children or their assets."
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:34 PM on March 15, 2018 [24 favorites]


Daniels is open about the fact that her motive is money. Just as Trump has always been.

Speaking of which, she now has a fundraising site, to crowdfund her "attorneys' fees; out-of-pocket costs associated with the lawsuit, arbitration, and my right to speak openly; security expenses; and damages that may be awarded against me if I speak out and ultimately lose to Mr. Trump and Mr. Cohen"

I mean, there are better charitable causes you could donate money to. On the other hand, we all spend money on entertainment too, and this seems like good value for money from that perspective.
posted by OnceUponATime at 2:37 PM on March 15, 2018 [17 favorites]


Sorry if this was already mentioned:
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spent $1 million in taxpayer money to use military aircraft between the spring and fall of 2017 — and requested a military jet to fly him and his wife on their European honeymoon, travel records show.
Past Treasury Secretaries traveled commercial.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:43 PM on March 15, 2018 [34 favorites]


Oh, the nostalgia trip! I remember being outraged about James Watt back when I was, like, 12 years old.

Favorite bumper sticker ever, recently spotted on the guitar case of a folk musician – I can’t believe I’m still protesting this crap
posted by maniabug at 2:44 PM on March 15, 2018 [17 favorites]


My big question for today is, who in the administration pushed through the new Russia sanctions? It’s obviously not Trump but I can’t figure out who else in the cabinet would have the presence of mind to bother chasing down even this fig leaf of retribution.

Okay, that’s a lie, my big question is “WTF!?”, just like every day since Nov 2016.
posted by murphy slaw at 2:46 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


The new sanctions were enacted by Treasury and they are definitely touch football while the other side is playing tackle.
posted by peeedro at 2:50 PM on March 15, 2018 [2 favorites]


Scottadrake, I got to Eryn Gilchrist's funding page 25 minutes after you did. They raised the goal to $100K, presumably because the total so far was over $51K.

Blue wave, y'all. Keep working.
posted by Sublimity at 2:52 PM on March 15, 2018 [46 favorites]


The administration’s delay in imposing sanctions, too, is especially frustrating. It basically has allowed ample time for the targets to liquidate their holdings and shift them into other markets where the sanctions won’t affect them.
posted by darkstar at 2:53 PM on March 15, 2018 [7 favorites]


Hanabusa just finished telling an anecdote about her Japanese-American grandfather’s internment, which means that she’s at least third-generation

According to wikipedia, she's fourth generation.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:54 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


(and, fwiw, liberals often seem to think that puerto rico would be the first majority minority state if it ever joined, conveniently ignoring that hawaii is, and has always been, majority minority, after an illegal occupation and annexation...)

California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas also exist, FWIW.
posted by Sys Rq at 2:57 PM on March 15, 2018 [28 favorites]


According to wikipedia, she's fourth generation.

And Donald Trump is a third generation American. I would be very gratiful if we could not count how many generations somebody has been here. My wife (for example) is a naturalized immigrant and you know what that makes her? An American, same as every other American.

Again, I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but this "how many generations thing" is (in my opinion and I recognize its being used here at MeFi with good intentions) a way of making certain (almost exclusively non-white) people seem less American. Once you're American, you're American. I'll go back into lurk mode now.
posted by Joey Michaels at 3:00 PM on March 15, 2018 [94 favorites]


Here on the grey and rainy island, the news running order has been upset by the nerve agent attack. 500 people being told to wash their clothes and possessions if they were in a restaurant/pub was a strange thing; and it appears Salisbury is suffering more. The net effect of this being that Trump is suddenly not making the top three in the strangely-consistent-for-a-long-time UK TV news story running order now, which is pretty much:

1. Theresa hurls sanctions at Russia; Russia hurl some back.
2. "Everyone" is "outraged" that Jeremy Corbyn will not full-throatedly condemn Russia without evidence.
3. Brexit; Government says vague words, Europe says "nope".
4. Trump tweets something outrageous and/or fires someone.
5. Jose Mourhino is a bit shit nowadays.

Over on the Isle of Lewis, where Trump's mother comes from and several of his relatives still live (blog post by an ex-politician there), the island is still split over him. The Facebook groups - Pro-Trump and Anti-Trump - are still active to a degree, and there is hope amongst some on the island that he will pay another visit (though this seems unlikely, as he stayed less than two minutes in his mother's house on the last visit).

And (this is a regular thing) a journalist from a US newspaper has received a not-so-positive Hebridean welcome when he decided to go and skulk around the island, asking people what they thought of the Trump/Stormy Daniels story (his angle was "Very religious Trump ancestral island: are they shocked by his sexual immoralities?"). If he'd done his research he would have discovered that this is does not go down well there, and yadda yadda yadda another large bill for a hire car mysteriously greatly damaged in the middle of the night.
posted by Wordshore at 3:00 PM on March 15, 2018 [19 favorites]


(sorry for the generation-counting derail and picking apart "degrees" of racism. shitty racist thing is shitty.)
posted by murphy slaw at 3:09 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


Jeremy Corbyn will not full-throatedly condemn Russia without evidence.

It's a chemical weapon developed and closely guarded by Russia. How much more evidence does he need? Who does he think did it? Jealous lover with access to Novichok?
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:10 PM on March 15, 2018 [15 favorites]


It's lovely of everyone to point out exactly why Zinke's comment makes him an ignorant asshole, truly, but... I wish we could just take it for granted that, SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS after Hanabusa's grandfather (an American citizen born on American soil, as she says) fought to be recognized as American, that Japanese Americans are in fact American and that it's rude to greet them with "hahaha konnichiwa." I mean, really.

This is my official comment on this debacle as the self-appointed Japanese American spokesperson of Metafilter.
posted by sunset in snow country at 3:10 PM on March 15, 2018 [62 favorites]


If you’re in Miami, FL:

Gramps' Dark and Stormy Daniels Cocktail Will Benefit Stormy Daniels' Legal Defense Fund

Beginning tonight, Gramps Wynwood will donate $1 from every Dark and Stormy Daniels cocktail to Stormy Daniels' legal fund. The libation, Gramps' Adam Gersten says, is a cross between a traditional Dark and Stormy and a bourbon bramble. The drink ($12) will debut tonight during Gramps' happy hour and will be offered until "Daniels succeeds in court and she's able to break her illegal gag order or Trump's impeachment, whichever comes first," Gersten says.
posted by gucci mane at 3:11 PM on March 15, 2018 [51 favorites]


I had a thought earlier today, that Trump has been so awful that GW Bush may actually be able to start campaigning for Republicans. He's been almost completely absent from the campaign trail and that's a very odd thing for a former president. I could be off base here. Trump makes Dubya look like a real statesman, and that's saying something.
posted by azpenguin at 3:11 PM on March 15, 2018 [4 favorites]


Trump makes Dubya look like a real statesman, and that's saying something.

i figure if trump can appoint a guy who said that invading iraq was a great idea that would add 1000 points to the dow as his economic advisor, the moment is ripe for dubya's re-emergence
posted by murphy slaw at 3:16 PM on March 15, 2018 [2 favorites]


... Vanessa Trump reportedly filed for an uncontested proceeding where “she’s not expecting a legal battle over custody of the couple’s five children or their assets."

I'm just going to read this as her knowing full well that her elephant-murdering failscion of a husband is going to federal prison soon
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:18 PM on March 15, 2018 [104 favorites]


... Vanessa Trump reportedly filed for an uncontested proceeding where “she’s not expecting a legal battle over custody of the couple’s five children or their assets."

It's my understanding that Vanessa Trump can be forced to testify against Don Jr. by Mueller once their divorce is final (which can be relatively soon since it's a no-contest divorce). Federal spousal privilege ends when the marriage ends.
posted by orange swan at 3:22 PM on March 15, 2018 [20 favorites]


I mentioned in a thread about a hundred years ago that one of the terrible aspects to the tenure of President Dumbass will be that it would make Dubya seem not all that bad in comparison.

I mean...one of the key reasons the country was so willing to entertain the prospect of a candidate that was a relative newcomer to politics, indeed, a POC with a Muslim name (one word of which was the same as one of our nation's arch-enemies and another was similar to the name of another one), was because GEORGE W. BUSH JR. WAS TERRIBLE IN VIRTUALLY EVERY WAY.

Every time I hear that Bush Jr. is slowly, slowly making inroads at having his reputation being rehabilitated, it is like a jagged piece of metal in my guts.
posted by darkstar at 3:22 PM on March 15, 2018 [81 favorites]


Bush Jr. should never have his reputation rehabilitated, it should just be further evidence of how deeply flawed the entire Republican Party is.
posted by gucci mane at 3:25 PM on March 15, 2018 [21 favorites]


@davidfrum: Trump’s omnidirectional regardless-of-the-facts belligerency toward everybody else makes all the more striking his continued personal unwillingness to acknowledge the Russian nerve gas attack on UK soil.

I'm never going to get used to being on the same side as Frum and friends
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:26 PM on March 15, 2018 [15 favorites]


It was so dumb and evil that the FBI walked out on the interrogations because it was too evil for them.

@matthewamiller (MSNBC)
As a side note, there are many impressive moments from Bob Mueller's career, but one of his finest was ordering FBI agents not to participate in the CIA's torture program, at a time of extraordinary pressure.
posted by chris24 at 3:30 PM on March 15, 2018 [175 favorites]


It's a chemical weapon developed and closely guarded by Russia. How much more evidence does he need? Who does he think did it? Jealous lover with access to Novichok?

These are the arguments I've seen. Mostly I think they're obviously wrong, but one of them I think is not totally impossible. A bunch of links in this article here - caution, I know nothing about this blog except that it is regularly linked from news aggregator Naked Capitalism, a site with which I do not always agree but which I've been reading for many years now and don't think is stupid:

1. Novichok is mostly hype - that is, Russia has nerve agents, but the specifics of this particular class of agent come from an extremely dubious source who has a lot of incentive to lie. Possible, but something still happened to these people - even if it's not Super Secret Extra Dangerous Nerve Agent, it's still something very dangerous.

2. This all happened right next to the UK's own secret chemical research facility - why couldn't it have been an accident? That just happened to this particular dude out of all possible people...

3. That it's a false flag and either didn't happen at all (guy and daughter are actually fine) or was done by the British themselves, either to take the heat off May because of the disaster of Brexit and other stuff or to justify some kind of thing about Russia. Incredibly unlikely because it seems very difficult to fake this kind of thing and keep it really secret and the repercussions if a whistleblower or leaker talked are absolutely staggering to contemplate. A faked nerve gas attack in the middle of the UK? That's not the same as lying about WMDs abroad.

4. The only one I think is actually plausible is the idea that some Russia-related actor but not the Russian state did it - some oligarch or gangster with reasons of their own and access to some kind of dangerous nerve agent. Such a person might have their own independent reasons to attack this guy and his daughter or might have knock-on reasons to do something that would redound on Putin. It's not clear that every Russia who has been murdered in the UK was murdered by the state - some of them appear to have been murdered by members of the oligarchy for their own reasons. This is the one I would like ruled out. It seems unlikely but not absolutely impossible, and in this political climate I would rather be 100% sure.
posted by Frowner at 3:32 PM on March 15, 2018 [14 favorites]


According to wikipedia, she's fourth generation.

And Donald Trump is a third generation American. I would be very gratiful if we could not count how many generations somebody has been here. My wife (for example) is a naturalized immigrant and you know what that makes her? An American, same as every other American.


I agree, although it would be glorious if reporters began each question to 45 with, "Guten tag, Herr Präsident."
posted by ricochet biscuit at 3:33 PM on March 15, 2018 [10 favorites]




Oh good, we're taking policy proposals from Grindhouse.
posted by The Gaffer at 3:35 PM on March 15, 2018 [42 favorites]


In the filing, Manafort’s lawyers argued that Mueller exceeded his authority under an appointment that directed him to investigate possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Mueller can also investigate other matters that arise from his investigation, but he’s abused that authority, according to the filing.

This is frivolous bullshit. Ok, it's a little less frivolous than a drug dealer claiming that he can't be prosecuted for the fully automatic AK-74 found in plain sight on his kitchen table because the warrant the DEA served when they busted down his door was for drugs... but not by much.

His lawyers can't possibly think it will succeed. I suppose when your client is gonna go to the pokey for 400 years you throw everything against the wall. And it supports your (and the President's) talking points, I guess.
posted by Justinian at 3:37 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


US Senate candidate proposes arming homeless people with shotguns

(Libertarian candidate, doin' it for attention. Don't give it to him.)
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:37 PM on March 15, 2018 [36 favorites]


... Vanessa Trump reportedly filed for an uncontested proceeding where “she’s not expecting a legal battle over custody of the couple’s five children or their assets."

I'm just going to read this as her knowing full well that her elephant-murdering failscion of a husband is going to federal prison soon


I think it might be “give me everything or I tell them everything”

IANAL, so no idea if it’s legal to make the assertion of spousal privilege part of a divorce agreement, but considering the things spousal privilege doesn’t cover — metadata, if you will — I’m really tickled by the idea that she could use this to get everything and then still screw him in the investigation anyway.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:44 PM on March 15, 2018 [24 favorites]


I think it might be “give me everything or I tell them everything”

I think it's "I'm protecting myself and the children, so that when all YOUR assets are seized, our Trust Funds will remain intact."

I presume her lawyers are smart enough to only go after the known-clean assets.
posted by mikelieman at 4:03 PM on March 15, 2018 [34 favorites]


I have been acutely conscious of Bush Jr.'s ill-conceived joking at the 2004 White House Correspondents' Dinner about "searching for the Weapons of Mass Destruction". If he's going to comment on the UK nerve agent assault, all he needs to say is "THERE they are..."
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:14 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


Libertarian candidate, doin' it for attention. Don't give it to him.

Why not, though? He's not going to win, he's not going to take votes from the Dem, and if it gets enough press the Republican will end up having to endorse arming the homeless or concede that it's dumb to distribute guns as a means of reducing violent crime.
posted by contraption at 4:15 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


This is because a libertarian can't get attention for saying obviously sensible things.

"As well as the shotgun plan, he would focus on minority rights and said he would oppose foreign military intervention."
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:26 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


end up having to endorse arming the homeless or concede that it's dumb to distribute guns

After all, the NRA was for gun control when it was the Black Panthers arming themselves. Republicans/NRA don't really want everyone to have guns, just themselves.
posted by thefoxgod at 4:27 PM on March 15, 2018 [23 favorites]


the couple’s five children

Idiocracy didn't account for this.
posted by rhizome at 4:31 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


Republicans/NRA don't really want everyone to have guns, just themselves.

Sure, but I'm all for getting Republicans monologuing about which people are the good kind that should get free guns, and which ones are the bad kind who might misuse the free government guns, especially when it's in the context of fighting with a Libertarian about the True Meaning of Freedom.
posted by contraption at 4:32 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]




yeah, they botched the rollout.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:47 PM on March 15, 2018 [78 favorites]


US Senate candidate proposes arming homeless people with shotguns

If we have to live in a low-budget film, Hobo With A Shotgun may be less existentially depressing than Idiocracy.
posted by acb at 4:51 PM on March 15, 2018 [12 favorites]


The best people. HUD advisor is apparently a complete fraud. But since he's a believer in privatization, they didn't bother checking his background at all.
posted by suelac at 4:52 PM on March 15, 2018 [25 favorites]


Loony Left (upbeat!) Report: The latest issue of Democratic Left, the DSA House publication , is dedicated to Medicare For All and arguing it from a socialist perspective, a labor perspective, a force for empowerment, and how on the ground campaigns will work. This Is How We Win.
posted by The Whelk at 4:52 PM on March 15, 2018 [41 favorites]


They did botch the rollout, I'd say. It was bad politics. All they had to do was say they'd found no evidence of collusion, case closed, Democrats are sore losers who won't let us move on. That was the news cycle they've been working up to for the last year. Claiming the intelligence agencies were wrong, especially because that claim isn't in the report they were releasing, was just stupid.

Yes, they're pathological liars and they're terrified of admitting to any facts that don't cover Trump in glory, which explains why they did it, but it was still dumb as rocks.
posted by saturday_morning at 4:53 PM on March 15, 2018 [10 favorites]


Undocumented immigrant appointed to statewide post in California: (Taryn Luna & Billy Kobin, Sacramento Bee)
Lizbeth Mateo, a 33-year-old attorney and immigrant rights activist, will serve on the California Student Opportunity and Access Program Project Grant Advisory Committee. The committee advises the California Student Aid Commission on efforts to increase college access for California students from low-income or underserved communities.

"While Donald Trump fixates on walls, California will continue to concentrate on opportunities," de León said in a news release. "Ms. Mateo is a courageous, determined and intelligent young woman who at great personal risk has dedicated herself to fight for those seeking their rightful place in this country."
Mateo graduated from Santa Clara University Law School and passed the California bar last year. I hope she does well at her new post. And I'm proud of Kevin De Leòn; no doubt this is his way of saying "ha ha fuck you we aren't the fifth largest GLOBAL economy because we shit on our immigrants, Republicans!"
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:06 PM on March 15, 2018 [44 favorites]


> Bush Jr. should never have his reputation rehabilitated, it should just be further evidence of how deeply flawed the entire Republican Party is.

GWB is, as of this post, directly and indirectly responsible for many, many, many more innocent deaths than Trump is. The odiousness of his policies was just somewhat masked by the last fumes of the old-school Republican "genteel" racism, sexism, xenophobia, etc.. that the Tea Party and then Trump blew away.
posted by The Card Cheat at 5:13 PM on March 15, 2018 [16 favorites]


Mod note: Oh my God are we not having a historical slavery debate here in service of a derail.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 5:15 PM on March 15, 2018 [73 favorites]


US Senate candidate proposes arming homeless people with shotguns
posted by Artw at 3:34 PM on March 15 [7 favorites +] [!]


I stay the fuck outta these threads for my mental health but drop in when they are young to check up on my homies, like Art. I miss you guys out in the rest of the site.

That said:

Arm the Homeless (Dec 1993)

I know one of the formerly young gentlemen involved with this outstanding, visionary prank, and the local media published the prankster's home addresses, resulting in death threats. Interesting times, as some source once said.
posted by mwhybark at 5:17 PM on March 15, 2018 [9 favorites]


ProPublica: Correction: Trump’s Pick to Head CIA Did Not Oversee Waterboarding of Abu Zubaydah
"ProPublica erred when it reported in 2017 that Gina Haspel was in charge of a secret prison in Thailand during the infamous interrogation of an al-Qaida suspect."

There's a whole lot of retraction in here. Of relevance, however, buried within the article (emphasis mine):
The New York Times, which also reported last year that Haspel oversaw the interrogation of Abu Zubaydah and another detainee, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, published a second story this week making the same point. It quoted an unnamed former senior CIA official who said Haspel did not become base chief until late October of 2002. According to the Times, she was in charge when al-Nashiri was waterboarded three times.
So, this sucks. The attention-grabbing headline is "She didn't torture anyone, it wasn't her," but there still seems to be some level of "she did torture another guy" in the mix, so how is that any better? Argh.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:34 PM on March 15, 2018 [19 favorites]


4. The only one I think is actually plausible is the idea that some Russia-related actor but not the Russian state did it - some oligarch or gangster with reasons of their own and access to some kind of dangerous nerve agent.

Quite possible. The Guardian from a few hours ago:

"The years following the fall of the Berlin Wall were chaotic, with chemical weapons laboratories and storage sites across the Soviet Union abandoned by staff who were no longer being paid. Security was almost non-existent, leaving the sites at the mercy of criminal gangs or disenchanted staff looking to supplement their income. “Could somebody have smuggled something out?” Amy Smithson, a US-based biological and chemical weapons expert, said to Reuters. “I certainly wouldn’t rule that possibility out, especially a small amount and particularly in view of how lax the security was at Russian chemical facilities in the early 1990s.”
posted by Wordshore at 5:38 PM on March 15, 2018 [3 favorites]


Haspel participating in carrying out GWB’s orders to torture is bad, but erasing the tapes of torture is in my opinion qualitatively worse. It shows a corrupt intent and the desire to avoid democratic oversight of illegal acts.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 5:39 PM on March 15, 2018 [70 favorites]


Federal spousal privilege applies to communications during marriage even after divorce - however, it only applies to communications between husband and wife, not "metadata" and other information, and it can be waived if she's accused herself; she can take immunity to testify to some details that would otherwise be privileged.

Even with the full privilege in place, she's allowed to talk about what he did - who he met with, when he left and when he returned, how much money was spent, who called to ask about him, and so on. Only talks between the two of them are restricted information, and unless he spent a lot of time talking about "I gotta go see a guy about arranging a Russian money laundering business for daddy," their actual discussions aren't going to be the important bits of evidence. (Note: They got married in 2005 and have five children. She's had no TIME to be involved in money laundering schemes.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:56 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


About the play sanctions: it seems very similar to that bombing of a Syrian airbase they did once. One gets the sense that some Trumpian calls their Russian handler and says — we need to do something now or it will be too obvious that we are puppets. The handler promises to get back and calls the Kremlin to figure out something that looks like an appropriate action to ignorant conservatives but does minimal damage in real life. That is then what happens.
posted by mumimor at 6:02 PM on March 15, 2018 [11 favorites]


Trump decides to remove national security adviser, and others may follow (WaPo)
President Trump has decided to remove H.R. McMaster as his national security adviser and is actively discussing potential replacements, according to five people with knowledge of the plans, preparing to deliver yet another jolt to the senior ranks of his administration.

Trump is now comfortable with ousting McMaster, with whom he never personally gelled, but is willing to take time executing the move because he wants to ensure both that the three-star Army general is not humiliated and that there is a strong successor lined up, these people said.

The turbulence is part of a broader potential shake-up under consideration by Trump that is likely to include senior officials at the White House, where staffers are gripped by fear and un­certainty as they await the next move from an impulsive president who enjoys stoking conflict.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:05 PM on March 15, 2018 [23 favorites]


(Note: They got married in 2005 and have five children. She's had no TIME to be involved in money laundering schemes.)

Because they couldn’t afford a nanny??
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 6:07 PM on March 15, 2018 [9 favorites]


It’s worth remembering that before bombing Assad’s airstrip, Trump gave Assad’s ally Putin a heads up, so he could get his people out of the way. Whether Putin was asked to pinky-promise that he wouldn’t tell Assad about the airstrike is a question lost to history.

Assad’s attacks on the Syrian people continue unabated to this day. It appears that a single pre-announced airstrike was insufficient. Sad face emoji.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:08 PM on March 15, 2018 [14 favorites]


President Trump has decided to remove H.R. McMaster as his national security adviser

Funny how this decision happens now.

@politico
McMaster calls for further U.S. punishment of Russia over ‘atrocities’ in Syria
http://politi.co/2FMww2k
posted by chris24 at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2018 [53 favorites]


Deranged man-child presidunce begins Saturday night massacre two days early, next on vraknews.
posted by vrakatar at 6:19 PM on March 15, 2018 [9 favorites]


Haspel participating in carrying out GWB’s orders to torture is bad, but erasing the tapes of torture is in my opinion qualitatively worse.

I get what you’re saying here, but the actual torture is still worse. I think it’s important that we never lose sight of the fact that the US committed an extensive series of war crimes and then legislated amnesty for our war criminals.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 6:20 PM on March 15, 2018 [23 favorites]


Funny how this happens now.

Not only does the President of Russia control the President of the United States, he wants everybody to know about it, while maintaining implausible deniablility.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:22 PM on March 15, 2018 [9 favorites]


Several candidates have emerged as possible McMaster replacements, including John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Keith Kellogg, the chief of staff of the National Security Council.

Kellogg travels with Trump on many domestic trips, in part because the president likes his company and thinks he is fun.


So our best hope of avoiding the all-but-certain war that would come with Bolton in power is that our toddler-in-chief picks his new national security advisor on the criteria of "fun".
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:22 PM on March 15, 2018 [17 favorites]


I'm never going to get used to being on the same side as Frum and friends


And fucking Bill Kristol! I feel like I'm on crazy pills!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 6:27 PM on March 15, 2018 [35 favorites]


And fucking Bill Kristol! I feel like I'm on crazy pills

For real. He follows me on Twitter now and I’m like, I can’t believe I hadn’t blocked you before, but now I don’t know what to do.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 6:30 PM on March 15, 2018 [32 favorites]


I get what you’re saying here, but the actual torture is still worse.

The actual torture is more horrifying, but it should have been obvious that "enhanced interrogation" was illegal under the country's treaty obligations, despite the bullshit construction of a category of "unlawful combatants" with no rights. So ordering the torture videos to be destroyed is willful destruction of evidence of a crime. She is part of a conspiracy with the people who personally committed the horrifying acts.
posted by mubba at 6:31 PM on March 15, 2018 [17 favorites]


From the Washington Post link above:

Also, Trump has sometimes expressed confusion about what agencies and secretaries are in charge of what duties, a senior administration official said. For example, this official said, he has complained to Pruitt about regulatory processes for construction projects, although the EPA is not in charge of the regulations.
posted by octothorpe at 6:33 PM on March 15, 2018 [39 favorites]


The average tenure of a national security advisor is over 2.5 years. With McMaster's replacement, Trump will be on his third NSA in 13 months. Running like a well oiled machine!
posted by Justinian at 6:34 PM on March 15, 2018 [17 favorites]


At least this one hasn't actively committed treason (I mean, probably).
posted by Chrysostom at 6:35 PM on March 15, 2018 [9 favorites]


The Trump divorce photo montage Page 6 put together takes a sudden, dark turn at picture 15. It's all Family, Family, Family, GRIM PORTENT, Family, Family, Family..
posted by robocop is bleeding at 6:40 PM on March 15, 2018 [21 favorites]


RE: the Canada deficit/surplus. The funny thing is, of course, the US isn't the only one tracking these numbers. Naturally Canada is too and we've come out pretty firmly that the US has a trade surplus with Canada.
posted by Mitheral at 6:40 PM on March 15, 2018 [4 favorites]


This is like Stupid I, Claudius
posted by EarBucket at 6:40 PM on March 15, 2018 [70 favorites]


I'm never going to get used to being on the same side as Frum and friends

Don't worry -- I've got enough snide loathing for Frum to cover us all. He'll sicken you again eventually, I promise.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:48 PM on March 15, 2018 [13 favorites]


I picked the wrong week to quit taking SSRIs.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 6:56 PM on March 15, 2018 [40 favorites]


Question: I keep seeing speculation on Twitter that the DJTJr divorce may be an effort to transfer assets to Vanessa Trump for protection from the investigation, but I haven't yet seen it from people I'd consider legal experts. Can anyone here say whether or not that's a realistic scenario?

Probably not? Mueller is taking down people left and right, you think he wouldn't see through a little fraudulent conveyance?
posted by Talez at 7:00 PM on March 15, 2018 [12 favorites]


More "stormy" legal weather ahead for Trump—MSNBC's The Beat With Ari Melber: "A new BuzzFeed letter revealed first on The Beat demands the Trump White House 'preserve any documents' related to 'Michael Cohen…Stephanie Clifford and Karen McDougal.' In an exclusive interview on The Beat BuzzFeed’s Editor-in-Chief and lawyer say they are 'ready to fight that fight'[.]" Ty Cobb responds, "I believe this is the first time I'm seeing this letter. I'll review it and make sure the White House does the right thing."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:05 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


I'll review it and make sure the White House does the right thing.

Translation: Ignore any smoke you may see coming out of the White House in the next 72 hours.
posted by Talez at 7:10 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


The turbulence is part of a broader potential shake-up under consideration by Trump...

Yeah, I think we've reached the point where the president says, "oh hey, all these appointed people... I can throw them out if they don't do what I want!" And since he's oblivious to the idea that the government actually does important things, he doesn't care how disruptive it is to eject people for not obeying his whims.

However, most politicians and bureaucrats would like their job security to be better than "you're here until you annoy me," so he's going to have problems finding replacements. He has no problems finding cronies, but he's reached a point where he's having trouble finding cronies that can even superficially work with his existing cronies. The bigotry and entitlement crowd doesn't get along with itself, and once you've removed "get the damn job done" as a reason to cooperate, you get nothing but infighting and drama (and news leaks, lots of news leaks).
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:11 PM on March 15, 2018 [12 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 House:
-- In the aftermath of the PA-18 special election, both contenders appear to be filing for the fall general. Lamb in the new PA-17, where he is probably the favorite in the primary, although there are several other folks who were already in. And Saccone in the new PA-14, where he has opposition, and can't be considered a favorite.

-- Mentioned earlier, Sabato moved ratings for 5 races today, all towards the Dems.

-- IL-03: This Dem primary race continues to be hot. Incumbent conservative Dem Lipinski is getting a big donation from the Susan B Anthony fund, which normally backs pro-life Republicans. He also managed to piss off Obama folks by implying in a flyer that he supported Obama's candidacy (he had not). Meanwhile, challenger Newman continues to get ad spending from NARAL and picked up an influential endorsement from the president of the Cook County Board of Commissioners.

-- In the wake of the Lamb upset, GOP leadership calling out House members who aren't hustling hard enough. Names named include: IL-12 (Bost), MI-07 (Wahlberg), MI-08 (Bishop), NC-09 (Pittenger), NC-13 (Budd), VA-05 (Garrett), VA-07 (Brat), WI-06 (Grothman).
** 2018 Senate:
-- MO: New ethics complaint against likely GOP candidate Hawley, who seems to be picking up a lot of little dings lately.

-- WI: Inside the battle for Tammy Baldwin's seat.

** Odds & ends:
-- A judge's ruling in Nevada has struck a likely fatal blow in the GOP's efforts to recall three Democratic state senators. More backstory here, if you've forgotten this (tl;dr: It's all bullshit).

-- Poll by the Missoulian of Montana politician approvals had meh numbers for Democrats (Sen Tester: -2 / Gov Bullock: -4) but outright lousy for Republicans (Rep Gianforte: -29 / Sen Daines: -21 / GOP-controlled state legislature: -48). Note that the wording of the poll was a bit unusual.

-- Illinois primaries are next Tuesday, and it looks like the GOP governor primary could be tightening up. Far right wing candidate Ives is out with a poll showing her trailing incumbent gov Rauner by just 7 points. Meanwhile, the Democratic Governors Association is up with an ad trying to help Ives along.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:20 PM on March 15, 2018 [47 favorites]


If we have to live in a low-budget film, Hobo With A Shotgun may be less existentially depressing than Idiocracy.

Probably less racist, too.
posted by msalt at 7:26 PM on March 15, 2018 [8 favorites]


These are the arguments I've seen. Mostly I think they're obviously wrong, but... The only one I think is actually plausible is the idea that some Russia-related actor but not the Russian state did it - some oligarch or gangster with reasons of their own...

You seem to be under the impression that the Russian State, Oligarchy, and Bratva are three distinct things. I don't see much evidence to support that assumption.
posted by dirge at 7:29 PM on March 15, 2018 [10 favorites]


Probably not? Mueller is taking down people left and right, you think he wouldn't see through a little fraudulent conveyance?

Pretty sure splitting assets in divorce isn't putatively fraudulent. Fraudulent conveyance comes in more when somebody gifts all their assets to their kids or to an irrevocable trust because they know they've got a large potential judgment looming, or a bankruptcy.

I mean, unless they're so stupid as to have lots of text messages about how it's just a sham transaction.

oh, right.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:30 PM on March 15, 2018 [29 favorites]


This is like Stupid I, Claudius

Soon the Secret Service will find Tiffany hiding in the closet and declare her President.

I look forward to her reconquest of Britain.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:36 PM on March 15, 2018 [56 favorites]


the DJTJr divorce may be an effort to transfer assets to Vanessa Trump for protection from the investigation,

Quite the opposite.
(1) Divorces aren't quick enough to dodge another court's existing investigation, even when they're simple and uncontested. While this may be uncontested, it's not simple - there are a lot of assets involved, plus custody of children. (It doesn't matter how much the parents agree on who should have custody; the court is obligated to consider what's best for the child. In most cases, that's "whatever makes both parents happy," but it still takes review. Any debates over schools or visitation stretch out the timeline.)

(2) The assessment and split of assets of a divorce may be part of the public record. Even without that, it means both sides' attorneys and the judge seeing a list of all assets. If it's filed confidentially, another court (*koff* Mueller *koff*) could still easily get access to the record.

You don't hide your shady money dealings by listing them in detail for legal review.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:37 PM on March 15, 2018 [10 favorites]


okay, i think i figured it out

trump's new plan is to rotate people in and out of his cabinet so fast that mueller won't know who to subpeona
posted by murphy slaw at 7:40 PM on March 15, 2018 [23 favorites]


Cyberattacks Put Russian Fingers on the Switch at Power Plants, U.S. Says
United States officials and private security firms saw the attacks as a signal by Moscow that it could disrupt the West’s critical facilities in the event of a conflict.

They said the strikes accelerated in late 2015, at the same time the Russian interference in the American election was underway. The attackers had compromised some operators in North America and Europe by spring 2017, after President Trump was inaugurated.

In the following months, according to a Department of Homeland Security report issued on Thursday, Russian hackers made their way to machines with access to critical control systems at power plants that were not identified. The hackers never went so far as to sabotage or shut down the computer systems that guide the operations of the plants.

Still, new computer screenshots released by the Department of Homeland Security on Thursday made clear that Russian state hackers had the foothold they would have needed to manipulate or shut down power plants.
Well, this isn’t terrifying.
posted by non canadian guy at 7:42 PM on March 15, 2018 [46 favorites]


California appoints 33 year old undocumented immigrant to statewide post (California Student Opportunity and Access Program Project Grant Advisory Committee):
Lizbeth Mateo, an attorney and immigrant rights activist, was appointed to an advisory committee that seeks to improve access to college for low-income California students
[...]
In 2015, Mateo applied for legal status under the deferred action for childhood arrivals program, better known as DACA, but has twice been denied because she briefly traveled to Mexico in 2013 as part of the “Bring Them Home” campaign to see how border agents would react when they tried to reenter the United States.
I can hear the heads asploding from here.
posted by Mitheral at 7:45 PM on March 15, 2018 [16 favorites]


So our best hope of avoiding the all-but-certain war that would come with Bolton in power is that our toddler-in-chief picks his new national security advisor on the criteria of "fun".

whether or not we launch another war in the persian gulf is going to come down to how much trump hates john bolton's moustache
posted by murphy slaw at 7:49 PM on March 15, 2018 [6 favorites]


@MelissaStetten (former model)
Surprised his marriage didn’t work out since he was sending me DMs a month after his wife gave birth. (I tweeted a joke about pulling a muscle changing a tampon and he replied asking if I smelled bacon? Cool joke)

SCREENSHOT OF ONE OF THE DMS
posted by chris24 at 7:55 PM on March 15, 2018 [44 favorites]


I expect Lizbeth Mateo is quite competent but that is definitely some trolling by California.
posted by Bovine Love at 7:56 PM on March 15, 2018


Scottadrake, I got to Eryn Gilchrist's funding page 25 minutes after you did. They raised the goal to $100K, presumably because the total so far was over $51K.


I ... What? Maine House 57 has about 8,600 people living in it. It's entirely rural - no downtown, no business district. You could run a ROBUST campaign there for $10k. I cannot IMAGINE how anyone would spend $100k to run for that seat.

I support the desire to support her, but there are plenty of other Maine Dems who could use the support, starting with either of the candidates in CD2 or any of the Dem Gov candidates.
posted by anastasiav at 7:58 PM on March 15, 2018 [13 favorites]


So is Trump now firing anyone and everyone just so the Saturday Night Massacre will look somehow less suspicious in comparison? "What, I didn't fire them to obstruct justice, I fire lots of people, just for funzies. That's my brand."
posted by p3t3 at 8:05 PM on March 15, 2018 [10 favorites]


My hope is that she takes some of the surplus money and passes it around to some other candidates she likes. I don't know if that's legal, though. I can't imagine it wouldn't be.
posted by Merus at 8:05 PM on March 15, 2018 [2 favorites]


"I cannot IMAGINE how anyone would spend $100k to run for that seat. "

In a lot of states, candidates can use their campaign funds to donate them to other candidates. (Paul Ryan, for example, donated $646k to other candidates from his own campaign war chest.) And the fundraiser says "Contribute now to the Lewiston Democratic Party. We'll use every dollar to beat Gibson and his hateful allies." So it sounds like it's not even the candidate's personal committee, but the local party, and they're clear that they intend to use it to defeat not just him but his "allies" -- other Republicans, one assumes.

When you have a candidate who's a stunningly good fundraiser, for whatever reason, it's almost always a good idea to take that as far as you can so that the funds raised can benefit many other politicians on the same side. You've got a crazy situation where a Maine Democrat has gone viral and is raising crazy money on the internet; you're not only going to spend her campaign into the stratosphere for that local race, but you're going to get that money to every Democrat in the state facing an uphill battle or contesting a newly-contestable seat -- and not just at the statehouse level, but at the federal level and at the local level, running for city council or mayor or water district manager. It's going to be a huge boon, and do a lot to "build the bench."
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:05 PM on March 15, 2018 [75 favorites]


Since we're talking about Roman emperors now, can I just express my profound disappointment that the thread title has nothing to do with the Ides of March?
posted by J.K. Seazer at 8:13 PM on March 15, 2018 [39 favorites]


Capt. Renault: Don't worry -- I've got enough snide loathing for Frum to cover us all. He'll sicken you again eventually, I promise.

Hoo boy. You got that right. David Frum is only doing this for the money. He's a bigot:

"But those of us who oppose gay marriage, and we remain the majority at least for now, believe that these new values are not changing the family--they are destroying it, and harming those within it. As such beliefs become more widespread, so do divorce and illegitimacy. The proponents of gay marriage can only get what they want by weakening Americans' attachment to the traditional family even more than it has already been weakened. And as such, these proponents are hastening a process of social dissolution that has already brought misery to untold millions of people, with children suffering most grievously of all."

...and a warmonger:

David Frum served as a speechwriter and special assistant to President George W. Bush, and helped write Bush's famous "Axis of Evil" State of the Union address in 2002. "My role was small," Frum told Big Think. "He made the choice to say it and it may have been reckless."

Frum is a cowardly homunculus.

He dedicated a huge chunk of his life to building up the far right in Canada, and when things didn't move fast enough for him here he moved to the US and became a speechwriter for W., culminating in the Axis of Evil speech.

Now he's rebranded himself as an anti-Trump polemicist. Just because things have gotten so bad doesn't make him good. He is the corporeal manifestation of those who laid the groundwork for Trump's rise. For him to act surprised, alarmed, or upset is something that genuinely requires the suspension of disbelief.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:13 PM on March 15, 2018 [63 favorites]


"Far right wing candidate Ives is out with a poll showing her trailing incumbent gov Rauner by just 7 points."

A University of Illinois researcher today released an analysis showing that the Russian bots are boosting Ives LIKE WHOA. (She has more mentions than all three Democratic candidates combined, who all have much higher profiles.) Clearly they're doing it because she is the absolute worst candidate in the race (and that's saying something because I would not pee on Rauner if he were on fire, but Ives is still WAY WAY WORSE) and that by supporting a horrendous and very public bigot they can fire up the bigots who feel like she's speaking for them AND fire up the anti-bigots who are freaking out that a bigot is getting so much attention and press coverage.

I'm sure Ives's campaign is not involved (they are not even a little tech savvy and barely have an online strategy), which makes it all the more frightening that Russian bot farms zeroed in on this horrible bigot and signal boosted her like crazy. I'd be skeptical of claims that they managed to single-handedly boost her to viability as a candidate, but they for sure didn't hurt, and they're for sure giving bigots more outlets and a sense of credibility.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:21 PM on March 15, 2018 [35 favorites]


This is like Stupid I, Claudius
posted by EarBucket at 6:40 PM on March 15 [28 favorites +] [!]


Old King Log, as he would have it
posted by mwhybark at 8:24 PM on March 15, 2018 [2 favorites]


He dedicated a huge chunk of his life to building up the far right in Canada, and when things didn't move fast enough for him here he moved to the US and became a speechwriter for W., culminating in the Axis of Evil speech.

And when the American Big Time slacks off, he comes back to Canada to suck at the teat of the public television and radio he was too good for before and (presumably, were he philosophically consistent), should oppose the very existence of.

‘Opportunist’ is hardly the word. ‘Traitor’, more like.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:26 PM on March 15, 2018 [16 favorites]


"... he replied asking if I smelled bacon"

Is this a joke? I don't get it.
posted by Tarumba at 8:44 PM on March 15, 2018 [36 favorites]


I can only think it's a metaphor so mixed it might as well have been a Madlib.
posted by rhizome at 9:04 PM on March 15, 2018 [8 favorites]


I’m terrified that all of this recent firing is going to culminate in the Fire Sessions, Get New AG to Fire Mueller plan and it will get lost in the firehose of crap coming out of the White House. Somebody talk me down?
posted by Weeping_angel at 9:10 PM on March 15, 2018 [6 favorites]


Guessing it was after this tweet?
posted by greermahoney at 9:10 PM on March 15, 2018


What happens to all of Mueller & co.'s documents and such if he's fired? Do Trump's stooges just walk in and take everything?
posted by gucci mane at 9:17 PM on March 15, 2018


Pretty sure Mueller is smart enough to have backups.
posted by emjaybee at 9:37 PM on March 15, 2018 [2 favorites]


Well, money isn't everything. It's all in how you spend it. I'm not involved so much on the finance side of things-- I know it does help, a lot. I'm a field hand, and the boots on the ground is what I know. Field margin-- and that is all volunteer driven, direct voter contact, knocking on doors and making phone calls, that kind of thing-- is the thin blue line, the 3-5%.

My own race, we got into the runoffs on pure field margin. I say this with zero ego, mind, but pound for pound, my candidate has the best field team working in the country today.

And it is hard. It's backbreaking and frequently tedious work. I spent two full days putting updated stickers on the brochures left on the doorstep with my back bent at a weird angle. And that was kind of a break from my usual routine.

Let me tell you about it. I get to work at 8:30, enter whatever data is left over from yesterday, and plan out who I'm talking to for the day. This involves weird strategy stuff, and actual brainpower.

From probably 11am to 4pm, I knock on the doors I've chosen, and hand out literature and try to tell people why my candidate is the best and why they should vote for her, should give up their time to her. (most experienced, best hope of beating the republican, etc, etc. it happens to be the truth, but also it's because my team is my family, and I love them with all of my heart, and I want to keep them through November. The candidate, too, who has taken care of me better than my own blood family ever has.) And every day I come away with a new story, a new connection. I give up a little piece of my heart in every single conversation I have. I get doors shut in my face, a lot, while I'm putting this part of me out there. But every so often someone responds, tells me something that makes it worth it.

From there, I get back to the office and make phone calls to other supporters, other democrats, to get them to knock on doors, for my person. I'm trying to build connections, trying to put a few people in a room together and maybe make friends, give them something they'll remember and take with them that will last past this election. A memory, a sense of doing something, because building these networks is the only thing that gets us through. Something that will make them show up past just this race. So I call people, trying to invite them behind the curtain, from 5pm to 9pm. Most people doing this, while they're making phone calls, they're making texts at the same time.

There's little spaces to breathe, in between, to laugh and joke and throw things at these people going through this with me, to commiserate and revel in this absurd thing that we do, to whistle against the darkness in the possibility of loss. Because every single call and every single text, behind each one of those is someone exhausted down to their soul, fighting for something that they think is worth it. For a candidate they believe in. For a family that they found. Occasionally they even eat food.

So.

Y'know.

Maybe you get some calls you don't like. Maybe you get too many. Maybe you don't like being texted. Someone reads those replies back. Someone is thankful for every moment you give up to try to make the world a better place. Someone is reading those texts, those emails, and taking all of it right to the heart.

Be kind to them.
posted by dogheart at 9:39 PM on March 15, 2018 [153 favorites]


Really trying not to derail, but genuinely curious - why would the "Related Posts" to this particular post all be Bush threads from November and December of 2000? Glitch in the matrix, or coding error?
posted by yhbc at 9:40 PM on March 15, 2018 [5 favorites]


Re: Stormy Daniels....

I’ve had and have friends who were/are call girls and one who is pretty well known in adult entertainment (who is a call girl on the side) We’ve spent time talking about “the life” (their title for the world they work in)

These are some takeaways

1) These women are smart, shrewd and honest, namely because what they have to offer is so clear.

2) Most of the high-powered men who have come to these women share secrets with them that the men wouldn’t share with any one else. Sometimes it’s information the women don’t want to be privy to. Their discretion influences reputation and, thus, their price with current and future clients. No matter what, however, the women hold the secrets.

3) The power dynamics that happen between the women and their clients are not what people expect. A tight fitting dress and a judicious shift of the hips can turn powerful men into blubbering fools. I’ve seen this happen and was flabbergasted by it.

4) “They don’t pay me for sex. They pay me close the door on the way out”

These women have more power than people give them credit for. Your contract is the time you pay for. If you break this contract, then you pay for it. Daniels is going for the money and more power to her.

Had a Dark and Stormy Daniels cocktail tonight. It was delicious.
posted by goalyeehah at 10:29 PM on March 15, 2018 [109 favorites]


Really trying not to derail, but genuinely curious - why would the "Related Posts" to this particular post all be Bush threads from November and December of 2000? Glitch in the matrix, or coding error?

OP here, no idea. I didn't do anything to make that happen, unless it was shared tags?
posted by msalt at 10:34 PM on March 15, 2018


South Korea: Foreign Minister Kang to Meet Ivanka Trump in US. This is a thing kings do, not elected leaders of a democracy.
posted by scalefree at 10:39 PM on March 15, 2018 [19 favorites]


One: Nazi Love Triangle is probably, at this moment, being written down on a punk rocker’s list of possible band names,

Or is about to be in the running for Worst New Order Cover Ever.
posted by gtrwolf at 10:57 PM on March 15, 2018 [30 favorites]


Goalyeehah, all four of your points jive perfectly with my experiences with friends and acquaintances who work or have worked in the industry, as well. Mainly in jurisdictions where it's a legal enterprise, yes, but still... note for note.

It's always boggled me when the media portrays these women as fools or (worse) victims, when they've held enormous power in the same way for, like, millennia.
posted by rokusan at 11:04 PM on March 15, 2018 [11 favorites]


These women are smart, shrewd and honest

From February 2016, before all this hit.

New York magazine's The CUT: The Female Porn Director Winning All the Awards
Even as Hollywood remains a bastion of white male power, the adult film industry’s most honored director this year is a woman, Stormy Daniels. She won Best Picture and Best Director at the XBIZ Awards on January 15, as well as Best Drama at the AVN Awards on the 22nd, for her three-hour Western epic, Wanted, which she stars in and also wrote.

Oh, and Daniels has already directed 70 films. But that doesn’t mean it’s been an easy ride. “For years everyone was like, ‘Stormy Daniels, she’s the best female director.’ That’s always bugged me. What does my vagina have to do with directing?” she says. She’s all tousled blonde hair and a canyon of cleavage, curled up on a purple plush sofa 18 stories up at Las Vegas’s Hard Rock Hotel with Sin City splayed out behind her. “Why do I have to be the best female director? Why can’t I just be one of the best directors?”

As a director, she has ambitions beyond the usual vignettes of seemingly random strangers banging each other in half-furnished condos. Her films have character, dialogue, plot, and setting — Wanted’s desert shoot was as arduous as any classic Western’s.

“It was the hardest thing I’ve ever done by far. There’s no running water, no electricity, it’s 115 degrees,” she says. “There was fire, a flash flood, grip truck broke down, prop truck broke down, camera truck got stuck in the sand, the cameras went down, I was robbed, 16 people cried.”

Not only did she have to manage disasters, she had to deliver on-camera, too: “It’s hard to be sexy when covered in sweat and horsehair and wearing the same outfit without being able to wash it for 20 days.”
And her Twitter is great too. She's smart, funny, and self-deprecating. And she tools on trolls.

@anetizyn
@StormyDaniels what if you go to hell from taking so many dicks? aren't you concerned?

@StormyDaniels
Does heaven have a maximum dick-taking number? More importantly, does hell have a minimum? Just want to check that my quota is on track.

@ScottBayless2
Pretty sure dumb whores go to hell, I don't make the rules.

@StormyDaniels
Whew! Glad I'm a smart one.

---

@SGOqueen
Oh Stormy, go back under the rock you crawled out from!

@StormyDaniels
In case you haven't noticed, I'm ALWAYS under two boulders.
posted by chris24 at 3:42 AM on March 16, 2018 [125 favorites]


You may remember way back when 45 retweeted the leader of Britain First, a bunch of bloody racists.

Said leader has recently received a healthy serving of porridge at Her Maj's expense, due to being found guilty of being a bloody racist. Yum yum.

Life inside hasn't gone well for him so far.

I commend this cautionary tale to those who are contemplating being bloody racists, are in danger of being retweeted by 45, or (as regrettably often) both.
posted by Devonian at 4:36 AM on March 16, 2018 [24 favorites]


She's untrollable and really sharp and funny with the responses. I wonder if these doofuses realize that an adult actress might have some experience being called a whore by frustrated morons before.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:40 AM on March 16, 2018 [68 favorites]


WSJ's Rebecca Ballhaus @rebeccaballhaus backs up the rumors about McMaster's borrowed time:
Confirmed: Trump has told Kelly he has decided to oust McMaster, administration officials tell me + @MichaelCBender. Trump doesn’t yet have a replacement in mind and wants a more graceful exit for McMaster than he afforded Tillerson, whom he fired via tweet.
And Rep. Ted Lieu @tedlieu calls BS on the White House:
This tweet by Sarah Sanders on H.R. McMaster gives rise to 2 possibilities:
1. Five sources lied to @washingtonpost that @POTUS has already decided to remove McMaster
2. @realDonaldTrump lied to @PressSec
Which do you think it is?
Sarah Sanders @PressSec Just spoke to @POTUS and Gen. H.R. McMaster - contrary to reports they have a good working relationship and there are no changes at the NSC.
Trump's management style formed in two organizations: either Trump Org, in which everything revolves around his every whim, or The Apprentice, in which a huge fuss is made over whether or not he'll fire someone.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:05 AM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


Doktor Zed: This tweet by Sarah Sanders on H.R. McMaster gives rise to 2 possibilities: 1. Five sources lied to @washingtonpost that @POTUS has already decided to remove McMaster 2. @realDonaldTrump lied to @PressSec Which do you think it is?

3. Sanders knows what's going on, but is happy to lie about it because that is what Trump wants her to do.
posted by Too-Ticky at 5:13 AM on March 16, 2018 [49 favorites]


From publisher Melville House, this offer is good for a couple more days:

We’re offering a FREE e-book of the Torture Report, now that Trump has nominated Gina Haspel to head the CIA
posted by SteveInMaine at 5:17 AM on March 16, 2018 [54 favorites]


I'm never going to get used to being on the same side as Frum and friends

And fucking Bill Kristol! I feel like I'm on crazy pills!


And JENNIFER RUBIN!!!

"The Right Turn," indeed!
posted by jgirl at 6:02 AM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


Trump doesn’t yet have a replacement in mind and wants a more graceful exit for McMaster than he afforded Tillerson, whom he fired via tweet.

So he’s using the rumour mill instead. Bold choice; let’s see how it works out for him.
posted by nubs at 6:05 AM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


He both likes to see McMaster squirm and wants at least a few days of crowing 'fake news, fake news!' after the rumor mill reported McMaster out, no doubt rumors he himself started.

If there was a president of bad TV drama he'd be the best.
posted by readery at 6:11 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


So much turnover! I don't even remember why I'm supposed to hate McMaster, but I assume he's done some shit.

Personally, I'm waiting for Zinke to get fired. I have a bunch of half-mast jokes ready to go.
posted by ryanrs at 6:17 AM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


Re: Stormy Daniels. Her lawyer indicated this morning on Morning Joe that she has been threatened with physical violence with regard to the Trump lawsuit. He would not comment on whether or not those threats came from the Trump folks. Avenatti is a really good lawyer according to a lot of disparate sources and I don't think he's talking about threats on Twitter.

Also, know lots of folks in the industry and yes, goalyeehah, I have very similar observations.
posted by Sophie1 at 6:50 AM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Because of course, because obviously: WaPo roundup on Trump's plans to I guess fire everyone who even tangentially has government experience and replace them with talking heads poached from cable news
posted by halation at 6:52 AM on March 16, 2018 [18 favorites]


Confirmed: Trump has told Kelly he has decided to oust McMaster, administration officials tell me + @MichaelCBender. Trump doesn’t yet have a replacement in mind and wants a more graceful exit for McMaster than he afforded Tillerson, whom he fired via tweet.
The man oozes consideration. No exit is more graceful than leaking about it all over the news for weeks right up until you find the replacee’s replacement.
posted by notyou at 6:57 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Re: Stormy Daniels. Her lawyer indicated this morning on Morning Joe that she has been threatened with physical violence with regard to the Trump lawsuit.

Not the first time she's been involved in politics and faced violence as a result:
Daniels eventually dropped out of the race, but not before a bomb blew up her political advisor’s car.
"It looks like the pictures you see in Iraq following a roadside car bombing."
posted by clawsoon at 7:12 AM on March 16, 2018 [21 favorites]


Personally, I'm waiting for Zinke to get fired.

Zinke will never be fired. He simultaneously epitomizes the abject worship of elite military units and physical force rampant in the Trumpian strain of American culture (and not only there, of course), the grifter mindset endemic to the Cernovichian right, and the smirking, sneering desire of contemporary conservatives to "trigger libs" at all times.

He's one of the more perfect crystallizations of this moment in our history I can think of, in fact, and one of the very last characters I can imagine Trump turning on.
posted by adamgreenfield at 7:12 AM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


Excellent video summary of Fox News's... evolving... feelings on diplomacy, after President Obama was replaced by President Trump.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:34 AM on March 16, 2018 [46 favorites]


Excellent video of Fox News's... evolving... feelings on diplomacy, after President Obama was replaced by President Trump.

Wow, the difference is so black and white.
posted by chris24 at 7:35 AM on March 16, 2018 [105 favorites]


Bloomberg: FEMA Strips Mention of ‘Climate Change’ From Its Strategic Plan
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, responsible for dealing with the effects of disasters like hurricanes and floods, has stripped the words “climate change” from the document meant to guide its actions over the next four years.

FEMA on Thursday released its strategic plan for 2018-2022. It replaces a version issued under former President Barack Obama that repeatedly cited the challenges caused by a changing climate, and the need for FEMA to incorporate those risks into its long-term plans.

By contrast, the new document doesn’t mention climate, global warming, sea-level rise, extreme weather, or any other terminology associated with scientific predictions of rising surface temperatures and their effects.
This is the obvious consequence of Trump promoting a crypto-climate change denier to head the Agency: "Brock Long, whom President Donald Trump appointed to run FEMA last year, has equivocated on whether climate change is real and man-made. 'The term climate change has become such a political hot button that, I think, I keeps us from having a real dialogue,' he told Bloomberg in an interview last summer."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:36 AM on March 16, 2018 [18 favorites]


Mod note: Bunch of stuff removed. Please remember how big these threads get and make the effort not to dig in on sidebar arguments about stuff as much as possible; also maybe like triple check whether "I have a good joke about porn stars" is gonna really go anywhere good. I know the Stormy Daniels stuff is in the news but blowing up catch-all threads by having multiple simultaneous arguments about her and Trump and second-degree arguments about how people are having those original arguments is just gonna take us down a vortex that I have zero interest in spending my Friday navigating.
posted by cortex (staff) at 7:37 AM on March 16, 2018 [28 favorites]


I've seen a couple of articles saying that WH staffers are more worried about Stormy than Mueller, but I can't figure out why. Isn't the S.D. thing just an embarrassment with minimal legal repercussions, or am I missing something?
posted by Optamystic at 7:39 AM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Isn't the S.D. thing just an embarrassment with minimal legal repercussions, or am I missing something?

I imagine it's more relatable to a lot of people. Trump camp colluded with the Russians to rig the election vs.rich old white man pays woman to be quiet about an affair.
posted by nathan_teske at 7:42 AM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


Also, as long as the GOP stands behind Trump he doesn't have to care about any legal repercussions, so even minor damage to his reputation -- especially if it's in an area that could turn voters against him -- is worse than proof of treason.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:44 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Isn't the S.D. thing just an embarrassment with minimal legal repercussions, or am I missing something?

Using the threat of physical harm to coerce someone into staying quiet should have legal repercussions, if it can be proven. It's certainly something to impeach a President over. But we have lots of those things already.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:44 AM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Isn't the S.D. thing just an embarrassment with minimal legal repercussions, or am I missing something?

Given Trump's level of hyper-ego and extreme investment in his public image, I'd say there's probably a lot of people at the White House cowering in fear of their boss's response should any intimate, sexual details be made public.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:44 AM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


I feel like screaming out the window like a crazy person about how dangerous John Bolton is. It's going to be Bolton and a bunch of yahoos from Fox? I'm sorry, does Mattis have zero influence here? I mean, I'm not saying Mattis is the Supreme Mellower-outer or anything, but I did have the impression that he cares about being good at his job. How can he, wraith-like, float along with this travesty? Like, until he gets his war with Iran? Does he think that this crew of dumb fucks could handle anything like a war with Iran? Is Mattis, with all his accolades, just like, 'Trump is influenced by Putin cool cool alright.' Because I was under the slight impression that out of all these sacks of worm food Mattis was like, sort of a patriotic dude.

I just don't get it. It's like Comey, with all the damage he caused, has been the only one within the administration or recently of the administration, to call bullshit. And then he gets made a fucking hero, even after he done fucked up in a serious manner. Don't any of these people who have friends who are like, "Seriously, Steve, just quit and burn the place down. You can sleep on my couch if you lose the house."

I guess there was that ICE guy, but that news got buried in the whole casting for Season Two of Trump: America's Worst Nightmare Ever
posted by angrycat at 7:46 AM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


Representative Louise Slaughter (D-NY) has died aged 88. First elected in 1986, Slaughter became the first woman to chair the powerful House Rules Committee.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:48 AM on March 16, 2018 [26 favorites]


Saw this tweet from astute and witty ex-DOJ flack Matthew Miller:

"There's not a lot to love about this chaos presidency, but John Kelly calling Pruitt to tell him to stop floating his own name for AG is pretty fantastic."

Haven't seen details reported anywhere; if anyone has a link, please do share, because that's just awesome.
posted by martin q blank at 7:50 AM on March 16, 2018 [21 favorites]


Isn't the S.D. thing just an embarrassment with minimal legal repercussions, or am I missing something?

USA Today has a breakdown of the legal issues of Trump's payoff to Stormy Daniels: Did the $130,000 Payment to Stormy Daniels Break the Law? "If the $130,000 payment came from Trump himself, the payment did not violate the law on contribution limits. Candidates can put unlimited amounts of their own money into campaigns. But Trump’s campaign, and Cohen, could be in legal jeopardy if Cohen, or another unnamed party, was the source of the money. "

And, as cited in a previous thread, Blogger Susan Simpson @TheViewFromLL2 found a very suspicious coincidence in the timeline:
Something I'd love to see a reporter ask Trump Org about:

1) Cohen formed EC LLC on Oct 17 2016
2) The contract provided for EC LLC to pay Stormy $130K by Oct 27 2016
3) Between Oct 17 & Oct 25, the Trump campaign made payments to Trump Org properties that add up to $129,999.72.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:52 AM on March 16, 2018 [40 favorites]


Louise Slaughter was my Representative and an awesome one at that. We are incredibly sad here in Fairport.
posted by valkane at 7:52 AM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


It was mentioned in last night's WaPo story.
White House officials have grown agitated that Pruitt and his allies are privately pushing for the EPA chief to replace Sessions, a job Pruitt has told people he wants. On Wednesday night, Kelly called Pruitt and told him the president was happy with his performance at EPA and that he did not need to worry about the Justice Department, according to two people familiar with the conversation.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:52 AM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


@robwhisman: really good seeing the people i’ve watched post some variation of the phrase “fuck your feelings, snowflake” sixty times a week since 2015 suggest school shootings might end if every student were nicer to the sad kid
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:00 AM on March 16, 2018 [91 favorites]


Adding to the podcast suggestions in the last thread, Ian Masters's Background Briefing has been excellent on Trump/Russia all along, and it's available for streaming and download the next day. It's just sober discussion without the pretense of a journalistic "view from nowhere." This segment from Wednesday was particularly good: Is the Trump Organization a Racketeering Enterprise? with Tom Adams.
posted by mubba at 8:10 AM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Hmmm. Theresa May and Boris Johnson signaling they may go after oligarch assets in Britain. (The Week, via Reddit.)

I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m not sure what a public warning is supposed to accomplish that wouldn’t be better accomplished by, you know, actually seizing the assets, so...I’ll believe it when I see it.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:15 AM on March 16, 2018 [30 favorites]


"If the $130,000 payment came from Trump himself, the payment did not violate the law on contribution limits. Candidates can put unlimited amounts of their own money into campaigns. But Trump’s campaign, and Cohen, could be in legal jeopardy if Cohen, or another unnamed party, was the source of the money. "

so… trump can either fess up to paying hush money to a former lover, or run afoul of campaign finance law.

delicious. more rocks and hard places for this administration, pls.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:18 AM on March 16, 2018 [46 favorites]


It occurs to me that a public warning gives them warning to move as much of their assets out of the country as possible as fast as possible. Not that one can divest from assets like property that quickly. If there's a strategy behind making those noises, it might be an attempt to ratchet up pressure Putin by the oligarchs. At least they seem to be contemplating an effective method of retaliation, which is heartening.

Also, what's the legal situation on seizing the assets of private citizens of another country for political purpose? Presuming oligarchs fall under the heading of "private citizen." I have no idea at all the method by which this could be executed under the rule of law. If it was a declared war, sure. Filing this under "sanctions" is enough?
posted by wires at 8:21 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


All the replacements are worse people in every way, but one heartening consequence is they may well be worse at keeping their jobs. Not that there's a magic method of placating Trump for long. John Bolton will have a high-level role in the administration until the day he pisses the president off, quite possibly by agreeing with him on something, or by inadvertently taking up too much of the spotlight. Compared to other authoritarians, Trump isn't just bad at carrying out actual plans, he's at some level hostile to the idea. He self-sabotages because it gives him a sense of control (and also because of general ineptitude, of course).

I think most of the difference between the old laughably-high rate of turnover, and the new ludicrously-accelerated one, isn't the nature of the people holding the jobs. It's more about Trump's own discovery of the extent to which he does have a say in things (or he's hit the right emotional extremes to no longer care, I'm not sure which). The people who had thought "He can't just do whatever he wants because, like, someone has to stop him, right?" were maybe 15% correct -- the adults in the room, for a time, could convince him about certain norms/rules. But for whatever reasons they no longer can. And because of this, he's just going to keep firing people (or making them want to quit).

I could be wrong, we could be looking at semi-stable rule by Bond villains who praised Donald on the TV. But my instinct is that, while things will stay bad for a solid length of time, they won't stay the same kind of bad for more than a couple months within it.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:24 AM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


Bolton is another wonderful reminder that the Republican party was chock full of race-baiting halfwit shitlords long before Trump graced the scene.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:29 AM on March 16, 2018 [93 favorites]


I’m not sure what a public warning is supposed to accomplish that wouldn’t be better accomplished by, you know, actually seizing the assets

I don't think the UK wants to seize the assets any more than Putin et al want the assets to be seized, frankly; the economy is weak and the problems are structural; tourism is one potential bright spot, and banking / foreign investment is another. The public warning may be a coded message for Putin et al to knock it off with the snarky comments and conspiracy theories and cracks about 'impotence' (and to turn off the social media bots and silence the compromised actors, depending how far down the rabbit hole you want to go). Basically saying: we have to do something, or at least look like we're doing something, and we don't want it to be this, and neither do you, so simmer down.
posted by halation at 8:30 AM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


bolton is also a reminder that as terrible as this administration is, at least they didn't nominate a UN ambassador who believed that the organization should disband and joked about its headquarters being bombed
posted by murphy slaw at 8:31 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


CBS reporting that Kelly could quit as soon as today, and that Mulvaney is a potential replacement.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:37 AM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


Representative Louise Slaughter (D-NY) has died aged 88.

I grew up in her district (more or less, given redistrictings), and she repped it for nearly my entire life thus far. I have (not fond) memories of my Trumpster parents ranting about her, so you know she's good people; she protected my rights when no one in my family would, and I can never thank her enough for that.

Anyone know if there will be a special election? I don't know many folks in the area anymore (other than the ones I'm related to), but would definitely make a trip up for canvassing/campaigning/GOTV (caravan from NYC anyone?). I wonder if Rochester Mayor Lovely Warren would run (her name has come up recently for Lt. Gov.).
posted by melissasaurus at 8:40 AM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


Unclear if this would replace either or both or neither of Mulvaney's current jobs.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:40 AM on March 16, 2018 [14 favorites]


CBS reporting that Kelly could quit as soon as today, and that Mulvaney is a potential replacement.

And the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Trump and Kelly have reached a truce. (link to CNBC because the WSJ article is paywalled).


¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by sporkwort at 8:46 AM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


Mulroney takes over CoS as well as all other cabinet-level staff positions with exception of Secretary of State. Secretary of State is filled by Trump himself, who hails the consolidation as a cost cutting measure.
posted by contraption at 8:48 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


contraption: You're going to need to link the article, or mark that as fake.

(Okay, I'm kidding.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:50 AM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


It really seems like Trump knows about ten, maybe fifteen people, total, and has to keep shuffling them around. How long before Vince McMahon joins Linda in the cabinet?
posted by uncleozzy at 8:50 AM on March 16, 2018 [14 favorites]


Basically saying: we have to do something, or at least look like we're doing something, and we don't want it to be this, and neither do you, so simmer down.

I thought May's suggestion that the poison may have come from stocks Russia had lost control of was designed to offer Putin a face-saving story which would spare the UK from taking any real action (and hence endangering all that delicious Russian money that's been flooding into London recently).

The fact that Putin declined to take her up on this offer just shows the degree of scorn with which he views May's threats. The UK's a paper tiger on this issue, and he knows it.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:53 AM on March 16, 2018 [22 favorites]


US housing department adviser quits amid questions of fraud and inflated biography
Naved Jafry, who called for radical privatization to fix America’s cities, steps down following inquiry from the Guardian about his record
Styling himself as an “entrepreneur and philanthropist”, Jafry said he controlled a multimillion-dollar trust fund built since 1885 by relatives in India. According to court records, however, he struggled to pay rent and bills while engaging in a series of failed takeovers of gas stations and other ventures in Texas over the past decade.

In November 2013, a judge ordered Jafry and a fuel company he chaired to repay more than $800,000 to the family of Alfred Oglesby, a former NFL player and investor in the fuel firm, who died in 2009. Oglesby’s widow accused Jafry of fraud. Jafry has not paid the money. Debt collectors said they had been trying to locate him for years.
posted by XMLicious at 8:59 AM on March 16, 2018 [29 favorites]


The BBC is now reporting that the second Russian death is being treated as murder.
posted by stonepharisee at 9:01 AM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


Presuming oligarchs fall under the heading of "private citizen." I have no idea at all the method by which this could be executed under the rule of law.

Unexplained wealth orders. Hardly any of the money coming into the UK from Russia is “clean”.
posted by Talez at 9:02 AM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


BBC: UK police launch murder investigation after death of Russian businessman Nikolai Glushkov in south-west London
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:05 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


It's not the second death - the nerve agent victims are still alive, as far as I know - but it may be the fifteenth, as the police have re-opened investigation on 14 previous suspicious deaths of Russians in the UK.
posted by Devonian at 9:10 AM on March 16, 2018 [27 favorites]


Wow, the New Yorker cover next week. Is, um. I think I'm going to turn that one face down.
posted by angrycat at 9:11 AM on March 16, 2018 [22 favorites]


US housing department adviser quits amid questions of fraud and inflated biography

This administration is a bat-signal for grifters.

But man, just reading the biographies of these people, it all just sounds exhausting. Spinning lies so hard, moving around whenever shit catches up with you, lying lying lying nonstop, dealing with lawsuit upon lawsuit... don't these people get tired of it all? I can barely keep my head above water in my normal non-fraudulent job and my real life actual family and the simple paperwork required to open a HELOC.
posted by soren_lorensen at 9:12 AM on March 16, 2018 [54 favorites]


Buzzfeed: Trump's CIA Has Set Up Teams To Kill Terrorists
The Central Intelligence Agency has been deploying small teams of commandos to kill selected suspected terrorists, according to two sources familiar with the program.

The program, which has not been previously disclosed, is coordinated by units from the CIA’s Special Activities Center, which oversees the agency’s paramilitary capability, the sources said.

The CIA denied that it has such a program. “Your story is wrong,” said Ryan Trapani, an agency spokesperson.

Director Mike Pompeo, who President Trump has just tapped to become secretary of state, has publicly said the agency will become more “aggressive” and “vicious” but has not mentioned the new effort to kill terrorists.

...

The Special Activities Center is now led by a former commando at the agency. BuzzFeed News is withholding his name at the request of the CIA. Until this spring, he was a senior aide to Pompeo, and before that, he served under John Brennan, Pompeo’s predecessor. He was, according to a source who knows him, a vocal proponent of more aggressive and audacious operations, and he pushed for the use of the SAC to kill terrorists.

Pompeo, according to the two sources, also pushed for the capabilities and the authorization to launch lethal ground operations.

...

The Special Activities Center, previously known as the Special Activities Division, houses the CIA’s Ground Branch, a group of commandos; the Air Branch, which has intelligence, attack, and transport aircraft; and the Maritime Branch. All three branches have been on a recruitment and hiring and acquisition binge, according to the two sources familiar with the program.

The Ground Branch, shortened to just “Branch” or “GB,” inside the agency, is made up of elite fighters, often taken from the ranks of SEALs, Delta Force, and Marine Special Operations Command. They are dubbed Paramilitary Operations Officers, or PMOO, which they pronounce “peemoo.” In the past, they were largely seen as support staff, helping case officers on projects, or for training foreign forces. Now they are used in direct actions and are operating on their own.

There are only about 100 or so of these fighters, but under Trump the numbers have been growing.

posted by snuffleupagus at 9:13 AM on March 16, 2018 [18 favorites]


bolton is also a reminder that as terrible as this administration is, at least they didn't nominate a UN ambassador who believed that the organization should disband and joked about its headquarters being bombed

Haven't nominated yet.
posted by Gelatin at 9:14 AM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Philip Bump has updated his timeline: A (so far) complete timeline of the investigation into Trump and Russia. It covers events from 2013 to the present, complete with a filter to show only actions involving a particular individual or entity. A comprehensive and useful tool.
posted by zachlipton at 9:15 AM on March 16, 2018 [46 favorites]


They are dubbed Paramilitary Operations Officers, or PMOO, which they pronounce “peemoo.”

So...death squads. Cool cool, this is all well and good.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:20 AM on March 16, 2018 [37 favorites]


I thought May's suggestion that the poison may have come from stocks Russia had lost control of was designed to offer Putin a face-saving story which would spare the UK from taking any real action (and hence endangering all that delicious Russian money that's been flooding into London recently).

The fact that Putin declined to take her up on this offer just shows the degree of scorn with which he views May's threats. The UK's a paper tiger on this issue, and he knows it.


And she's made Britain a paper tiger by choice. If memory serves me correctly, we have discussed in these threads how the Magnitsky Act has put a real crimp in the wealth of Putin and the other oligarchs, and also in Putin's power, as his oligarch supporters need a safe foreign haven for their ill-gotten wealth.

May could deal a real blow against the murderous kleptocrats in Russia with the stroke of a pen, without firing a shot. But she can't resist that sweet, sweet Russian money to prop her up, so she sells her country out.

Much like Trump.
posted by Gelatin at 9:21 AM on March 16, 2018 [35 favorites]


"Special Activities."

They always come up with the best euphemisms.
posted by notyou at 9:23 AM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


"Special Activities."

They always come up with the best euphemisms.


They didn't come up with it.

Special Action 1005
Special Action Krakow
Special Unit
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:26 AM on March 16, 2018 [16 favorites]


If memory serves me correctly, we found out about the Iran-Contra program when one of the American mercenaries working for it got captured. These jokers really can't distinguish between movies and reality.
posted by Gelatin at 9:53 AM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


Maybe I'm missing something huge, but... isn't this idea better than droning? At least with respect to civilian casualties?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:55 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Here's a 2016 backgrounder on the "Ground Branch" by SOFREP News. This bit is interesting:

When people envision Ground Branch, they tend to picture “Rainbow Six” or “Splinter Cell” black helicopter-type stuff, but the reality is that their mission is essentially the same as the unconventional warfare mission of Army Special Forces (Green Berets). What makes GB unique is that they can operate under the CIA’s Title 50 authority for covert action. This makes GB a deniable force, unlike active-duty SEALs, Rangers, or Delta operators.

posted by snuffleupagus at 9:57 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94: "Representative Louise Slaughter (D-NY) has died aged 88. First elected in 1986, Slaughter became the first woman to chair the powerful House Rules Committee."

She was a trailblazer and a great advocate, this is sad news. It must also be said she was well liked by GOP folks as well - the statements that have been coming out have been going beyond pro forma, and make it clear she will be missed.

melissasaurus: "Anyone know if there will be a special election?"

It's basically up to Cuomo if he wants one or not. Given we're already in the back half of March, he may not. The seat should be safely blue, regardless.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:05 AM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


I probably was in the momentary grip of "like in the movies" thinking, and I very humbly apologize.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:05 AM on March 16, 2018


Just quoted by verstegan in another open thread, an article called "Kill Lists" from last June by Clive Stafford Smith in The Times Literary Supplement (paywalled, unfortunately):
The CIA’s dabbling in assassination caused so many problems that, in 1975, a Church Committee Report declared assassination “incompatible with American principle, international order and morality”. Among the reasons to reject the practice, the Report identified the danger of political instability following a leader’s death; the inability of a democratic government to ensure that such covert activities remain secret; and the inevitable fact that the use of assassination would invite reciprocal or retaliatory action against American leaders. One result was Executive Order 11905, signed by President Gerald Ford on February 18, 1976, which officially banned political assassinations. Subsequently, between 1978 and 1981, President Jimmy Carter and then President Ronald Reagan broadened the prohibition: “No person employed by or acting on behalf of the United States Government shall engage in, or conspire to engage in, assassination”.

The gradual evolution of the rule against assassination came to a head at almost the same time as the 1984 Convention Against Torture; both principles would be cast aside after 9/11 without debate. Naturally, since bad cases make for unwise practices, the US began by trying to target Osama bin Laden, who was seen as responsible for the outrages in New York and Washington. Jane Mayer, in her article “The Predator War” published in the New Yorker in 2009, describes how, in February 2002, “along the mountainous eastern border of Afghanistan, a Predator reportedly followed and killed three suspicious Afghans, including a tall man in robes who was thought to be bin Laden. The victims turned out to be innocent villagers, gathering scrap metal”. Thus began America’s unravelling of the law.
posted by XMLicious at 10:06 AM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


The Central Intelligence Agency has been deploying small teams of commandos to kill selected suspected terrorists, according to two sources familiar with the program.
----
Maybe I'm missing something huge, but... isn't this idea better than droning? At least with respect to civilian casualties?


Define "suspected terrorists."
posted by melissasaurus at 10:08 AM on March 16, 2018 [35 favorites]


The most (well perhaps one of the most) concerning aspects of this approach seems that it is, like nearly everything Trump does, a product of some ego-driven need to outdo Obama. Trump's quandary is there isn't anyone out there who could actually do that for him, since Osama Bin Laden was kind of the top of the heap on that front, no?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:14 AM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


KC Star: ‘He’s ahead. Wake up.’ Kansas Republicans fear defeat in 2018 congressional race
Anxiety over the GOP's weakened grasp on Kansas’ 2nd congressional district, which includes Topeka and Lawrence, was on full display during last month’s state party convention.

GOP Rep. Lynn Jenkins is retiring. Republicans lack a clear front runner in the race to replace her, while Democrats have coalesced around Paul Davis, a former state lawmaker who won the district during his unsuccessful campaign for governor in 2014.

"If the election were held today, (there's) a 70 percent chance Davis gets elected,” Mike Stieben, co-chair of Kansans For Life’s political action committee, told the crowd at a convention prayer breakfast.

He passed an empty KFC bucket around the room, urging people to drop in donations so his anti-abortion group could start campaigning in the district. "We cannot elect Paul Davis," Stieben said. "And he's ahead. Wake up. We need your help."

And this was before Conor Lamb, a Pennsylvania Democrat, eked out a victory in a conservative district that in 2016 went strongly for Donald Trump, bolstering Democrats' hopes of a blue wave and spiking conservative concerns about what this could all mean for the Republican majority in Congress.
posted by chris24 at 10:14 AM on March 16, 2018 [40 favorites]


I should add that of course the whole underlying idea that foreign terrorists absolutely must be killed or caught, regardless of the ethical/financial/human cost, is straight-up irrationality, even if the terrorist is more than just "suspected".

I often figure that American voters and government will never be rid of that idea, and we just need leaders who placate that bloodlust in the least bloody way they can. But this is too cynical on my part. After all, a logically overlapping notion is "guns don't kill people, people kill people". That results in a belief that massacre-prevention policy should focus on individual perpetrators, but the winds are changing on that.

The more we can treat terrorism-prevention as a matter of some non-onerous logistical security (plus solving the root social causes), and less about "figure out who the terrorists are, kill them, ta-da no more terrorism", the better.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:23 AM on March 16, 2018 [18 favorites]


Trump's quandary is there isn't anyone out there who could actually do that for him, since Osama Bin Laden was kind of the top of the heap on that front, no?

I would bet money that someone at the CIA has been tasked with sifting through all the old Castro assassination plots to figure out which ones can be adapted for Kim Jong Un.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:24 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish: I would bet money that someone at the CIA has been tasked with sifting through all the old Castro assassination plots to figure out which ones can be adapted for Kim Jong Un.

And then Donald will suggest doing it himself, arguing that North Korea would never suspect it, and it would cement his legacy forever. It's the perfect combination of his ridiculous tough-guy act and his constant shtick of "Past leaders have been doing complicated stupid things, instead of simple genius things".

Holy shit. I give like a 35% chance that is literally what he had in mind when agreeing to the meeting.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:31 AM on March 16, 2018 [29 favorites]


Bolton is another wonderful reminder that the Republican party was chock full of race-baiting halfwit shitlords long before Trump graced the scene.

Yeah, this is why I don't understand why Bolton is being described as a new level of existential threat. He's had a seat at the table before. I'm not denying that he's terrible or dangerous. I just don't see how his re-entering the picture marks a new, previously unrealized circle of hell.
posted by diogenes at 10:35 AM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


anastasiav : I support the desire to support her, but there are plenty of other Maine Dems who could use the support, starting with either of the candidates in CD2 or any of the Dem Gov candidates.

Looks like the money is being directed to the Lewiston Democratic Party, which has promised to divert all of proceeds from the page to her campaign (its new goal is $250k!). The Greene/Sabbatus and the Lewiston area is in ME Congressional District 2 (the odious Poloquin, R), so I'd imagine freeing up other funds to support the opposition to him, and encouraging GOtV efforts would be a big help. Some people may not know but, there is a refugee Somali community, some of whose children born in the US are likely getting close to voting age, so maybe some money can be put towards their outreach as well. 100k would go towards a lot of outreach in that area!
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 10:37 AM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


Cook Political moves ratings for ten races, 9 towards the Dems:

CA-07 (Bera): Likely D => Solid D
CA-24 (Carbajal): Likely D => Solid D
FL-13 (Crist): Likely D => Solid D
NJ-07 (Lance): Lean R => Toss-up
NM-02 (open): Likely R => Lean R
NY-03 (Suozzi): Likely D => Solid D
OH-12 special: Likely R => Lean R
PA-08/01 (Fitzpatrick): Lean R => Toss-up
PA-12/17 (Rothfus): Lean R => Toss-up
PA-18/14 (Lamb): Toss-up => Likely R

Note that the PA ones are a little goofy because of the redistricting.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:40 AM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


PA-18/14 (Lamb): Toss-up => Likely R

Are they saying that Lamb is less likely to win in November, despite having just won in a heavily gerrymandered district that's going to be less gerrymandered in a few months? What happened to trigger the shift?
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:45 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Yeah, this is why I don't understand why Bolton is being described as a new level of existential threat.

Instead of talking to him from Fox, he'll be talking to Trump from the room and often be the last or only voice he hears. All I know is that politics/defense/foreign relations twitter, including many sane Rs, are very worried.

@djlavoie (D speechwriter)
People aren't freaking out ENOUGH about John Bolton as NSC.

He will tell Trump that bombing countries will make him "tough" and "strong" and "willing to do what Obama was too weak to do."

It is an apocalyptic confluence of ego, ignorance, and anger.
posted by chris24 at 10:47 AM on March 16, 2018 [70 favorites]


That might be them resetting the probabilities from a heavily-polled special election to a starting-from-scratch general.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:47 AM on March 16, 2018


I *think* what he's saying is that the PA-18 Lamb just won doesn't exist anymore. The biggest piece of it is the new PA-14 - it's much more GOP, and Lamb isn't running there (he's running in new PA-17).

If you read the piece, this is when they've decided to switch to the new districts, so PA ratings are sort of misleading. The real upshot is: we have a good shot at flipping new PA-17, new PA-14 is (probably) out of reach.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:50 AM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


I *think* what he's saying is that the PA-18 Lamb just won doesn't exist anymore. The biggest piece of it is the new PA-14 - it's much more GOP, and Lamb isn't running there (he's running in new PA-17).

Ah, that makes sense. Thanks.

Politics is wacky, you guys.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:55 AM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


TPM Livewire: Vanessa Trump Files For Divorce From Trump Jr.

A mildly intriguing update from Page Six: Vanessa Trump Hires Criminal Defense Attorney For Donald Jr. Divorce "White Plains, NY-based lawyer David Feureisen is representing Vanessa Trump, according to paperwork filed in Manhattan Supreme Court late Thursday. Feureisen is best known for securing the release of a New York man named Anthony DiSimone from federal prison in 2007 after a judge overturned a murder conviction related to a bar fight in 1994."

Bartels & Feureisen does handle divorce cases, as well as accidents, corporate business, and family ones, but they seem an odd choice.

And the timing of the divorce filing with the NYT's scoop about Mueller subpoena'ing Trump Org documents has raised eyebrows...
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:55 AM on March 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


Oh, he could totally have had that scenario in mind. Just like how he would have run unarmed into Stoneman Douglas to take on the heavily armed shooter.
posted by saturday_morning at 11:03 AM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


85% percent chance he told the room that's what he'd do. 0% chance he'd have the guts to exert himself or risk his life.
posted by cmfletcher at 11:10 AM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Playing catch up from two threads and a half a scarramuchi ago;

Re Escorts, dancers, sex workers, adult film actresses, when I was a student at Smu, I shared a penthouse flat with two other women working on advanced degrees at said school. I had a job working at a gentlemen's club, starting as waitress and working my way thru bartender into talent management. Most of my dancers were college students from religiously affiliated universities. My flatmates were escorts who specializes in very wealthy men and politicians. We had friends in the adult film and print industry. Those women went on to become powerhouses in their respective fields which are deeply intellectually challenging. We offered scholarships and tuition reimbursements and rent subsidies to keep our employees in college. All of us knew that these careers had a hard stop, age and looks wise. Stormy Daniels is well known in the Dallas area, and she's a shrewd negotiator, and a strong proponents for the performers who work with her. She's awesome, and the adult industry needs dozens more of women like her who are not ashamed of what they do, and refuse to be shamed into earning less than she's worth.

Re Afghanistan and wars in Asia, four of the boys who were seniors in rotc last year, joined the military out high school to earn gi bill credits to go to college. Every single one of them are being sent to the middle east. We have a massive build up happening, and it's not getting any attention.

Re time dilation, this shit has to stop. The simulation has hit a bug, and the cycles are happening too fast. If we could just reset back to before CERN pushed us into an alternate dimension, that would be great.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:16 AM on March 16, 2018 [91 favorites]


Killing "suspected terrorists" just makes more "actual terrorists."

Christ, it's been decades of this idiocy. I can't believe the stupid hatefulness of the armchair Rambos in charge of the military.
posted by aspersioncast at 11:18 AM on March 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


Faint of Butt: Are they saying that Lamb is less likely to win in November, despite having just won in a heavily gerrymandered district that's going to be less gerrymandered in a few months?

Recall that the purpose of gerrymandering is to pack lots of your opponents' votes into a few districts while still creating safe districts for your side. That means that that if republicans are doing the gerrymandering, then a republican district is drawn to be safe but not overwhelmingly so. In other words, the district wasn't drawn to be unwinnable by democrats, it was drawn to be unwinnable by democrats under normal circumstances. Less gerrymandered does not mean more competitive, it just means not optimized to maximize one party's representation at the state level.
posted by jomato at 11:19 AM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


Josh Marshall talked to Michael Avenatti on an extra podcast episode.
posted by kingless at 11:29 AM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


I took Susan Simpson's data around the money laundering to provide the $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels and wrote some code to try out some things.

I filtered the list to all payments to organizations containing TRUMP. There were 466 of them.

Then, for each transaction, I considered whether the amount of that transaction plus any number of the following 10 transactions added up to within $1 of some target amount. This works out to be about 1 million different possible sets of transactions.

Then I tested for different target amounts: $90,000, $100,000, $110,000, $120,000, $130,000, $140,000, $150,000, $160,000, and $170,000.

Here's the output of that program:
Read 31170 lines from trump-campaign-2016-expenditures.txt
466 payments were to Trump properties
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $90000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $100000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $110000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $120000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $130000...
HIT TARGET: Total is 129999.72! Transactions found:
[1st] 10/17/2016 0:00,TRUMP NATIONAL GOLF CLUB WASHINGTON DC,FACILITY RENTAL/CATERING SERVICES,"$8,544.00 ",
[in ] 10/17/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL,FACILITY RENTAL/CATERING SERVICES,"$13,431.88 ",
[in ] 10/17/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL LAS VEGAS,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859911],"$18,731.90 ",
[in ] 10/17/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL LAS VEGAS,TRAVEL: LODGING,"$79,043.94 ",
[out] 10/20/2016 0:00,"TRUMP, DONALD J.",IN-KIND: PAYROLL (SEE MEMOS BELOW),"$2,574.43 ",TRUMP
[out] 10/20/2016 0:00,TRUMP TOWER COMMERCIAL LLC,PAYROLL,"$2,574.43 ",
[in ] 10/25/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859906],"$10,248.00 ",
[out] 10/25/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859906],"$16,142.61 ",
[out] 10/27/2016 0:00,TRUMP NATIONAL GOLF CLUB,TRAVEL: LODGING - AMEX [SB23.4103],$524.70 ,
[out] 10/27/2016 0:00,TRUMP NATIONAL GOLF CLUB,TRAVEL: LODGING - AMEX [SB23.4103],$524.70 ,
[out] 10/27/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859906],$956.08 ,
[out] 10/27/2016 0:00,TRUMP NATIONAL DORAL MIAMI,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859911],"$1,473.40 ",
Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $140000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $150000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $160000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations
Checking for transaction sequences totaling $170000...Done. Tested 931840 combinations

We have a sequence of transactions which is:
  • The only sequence, out of 9 million possible sequences, to total a round number of tens of thousands near $130,000
  • The only sequence in which this happens occurs exactly when the payment to Daniels occurs
  • Occurs within a window of 7 transactions, even though we considered a substantially broader window of 10 transactions when looking for "false positives"
Trump laundered money from his campaign to pay off his affair. Full stop. Zero question.
posted by 0xFCAF at 11:30 AM on March 16, 2018 [520 favorites]


Re time dilation, this shit has to stop. The simulation has hit a bug, and the cycles are happening too fast.

Trump's inside our OODA Loop.
...decision-making occurs in a recurring cycle of observe-orient-decide-act
...
In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries—or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary's Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop ... Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing, as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns, they are competing against.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:34 AM on March 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


I came across this essay in Current Affairs which gives the best outlining for the kind of social and political change I’m down for

“ Collective ownership means collective decision-making power. Without democratic decision-making, then there’s no collective ownership. There’s just government ownership, and governments themselves only conform to the principles of socialism to the extent they are democratic. In fact, “democratic socialism” should be a redundancy, because socialism should consist of the application of democracy to all aspects of life.” Socialism is a series of principles
posted by The Whelk at 11:38 AM on March 16, 2018 [26 favorites]


Holy crap that's awesome, 0xFCAF. You should try and get your analysis in front of someone with a big megaphone, or perhaps a friendly Senator's staff. That's pretty devastating.
posted by adamgreenfield at 11:39 AM on March 16, 2018 [62 favorites]


Trump laundered money from his campaign to pay off his affair. Full stop. Zero question.

I swear to God. When the ACA went live and the site was crashing, President Obama made a national address about load balancing. Now we’re finding possible evidence that the president is a felon by running some RegExs over a text file.

If this isn’t a simulation or some mass consciousness playing games with itself, then I don’t know what the fuck anymore.
posted by middleclasstool at 11:44 AM on March 16, 2018 [41 favorites]


0xFCAF, what do the markers [in] and [out] mean in your data?
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:46 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


The gradual evolution of the rule against assassination came to a head at almost the same time as the 1984 Convention Against Torture; both principles would be cast aside after 9/11 without debate. Naturally, since bad cases make for unwise practices, the US began by trying to target Osama bin Laden, who was seen as responsible for the outrages in New York and Washington. Jane Mayer, in her article “The Predator War” published in the New Yorker in 2009, describes how, in February 2002, “along the mountainous eastern border of Afghanistan, a Predator reportedly followed and killed three suspicious Afghans, including a tall man in robes who was thought to be bin Laden. The victims turned out to be innocent villagers, gathering scrap metal”. Thus began America’s unravelling of the law.

Bill Clinton attempted to assassinate Osama bin Laden in 1998, openly and publicly, well before 9/11.
posted by srboisvert at 11:47 AM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


[in ] 10/25/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859906],"$10,248.00 ",
[out] 10/25/2016 0:00,TRUMP INTERNATIONAL HOTEL,TRAVEL: LODGING [AMEX: SB23.2859906],"$16,142.61 ",


What is this? Was the hotel paying money to the campaign? Some kind of refund?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:47 AM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


[in] marks payments that were used to add up to the target amount, [out] marks payments that are "skipped" (i.e. legitimate activity). Add up the [in] amounts to hit the target amount, ignoring the [out] payments.
posted by 0xFCAF at 11:48 AM on March 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


That seems very, very persuasive.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:50 AM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


0xFCAF I want to buy you a beer or coffee or whatever - also what you’ve done should go wider, please could we stay on top of its dissemination?
posted by From Bklyn at 11:51 AM on March 16, 2018 [29 favorites]


Trump's inside our OODA Loop.

His Brownian motion executive style degrades our ability to process & react, certainly. But it also degrades his own. The point of OODA loops is to make better decisions faster than your opponent. Can't do that if you're unable to Observe or Orient & your Decision function is severely impaired.
posted by scalefree at 11:52 AM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Trump laundered money from his campaign to pay off his affair. Full stop. Zero question.

Another analysis on Medium.

Statistical Model Strongly Suggests the Stormy Daniels Payoff Came from the Trump Campaign
To explore whether these payments are worth investigating further, we have approached the question from another angle. Instead of examining the individual payments forensically, we have instead focused on the rather close match between the summed payments ($129,999.72) and the $130,000 Daniels payoff. It struck us as fairly unlikely that, by chance alone, so few payments would sum to such a precise figure.

In order to investigate these suspicions, we developed 10,000 sets of simulated Trump campaign payments. Each set contained 10 randomly generated payments. We then searched each of those sets for the combination of payments with the total closest to $130,000. The simulation confirmed that it is extremely unlikely that, by random chance alone, a set of payments near a specific date would almost equal $130,000.

For each of the 10,000 sets, we generated a “closeness” value — the difference between their “best match” and $130,000. For instance, if the “best match” was $130,014.29, the “closeness” value would be $14.29.

Across 10,000 sets of simulated payments, the 99.9th percentile of closeness was $0.24. The actual degree of closeness in the real-life Trump campaign finance records is $0.28. In other words, out of every one thousand simulated payment sets, only one contained a combination of payments as close to $130,000 as the real-life payments made in the week preceding Oct. 25th.
posted by chris24 at 11:53 AM on March 16, 2018 [86 favorites]


Trump laundered money from his campaign to pay off his affair. Full stop. Zero question.

This might explain the comment above that the WH staff is more nervous about Stormy Daniels than they are about Mueller. And the Daniels and Mueller stories may even converge...
posted by Emera Gratia at 11:56 AM on March 16, 2018 [29 favorites]


The point of OODA loops is to make better decisions faster than your opponent.

I don't wanna be all time-for-some-game-theory, but I don't think Trump is playing the same game as his many opponents. With all the MAGA rhetoric pared back, his sole goals are naked self-aggrandizement and self-enrichment, and he can do that without contesting whatever it is we're perceiving as the battlespace, as it were.

He doesn't have an OODA loop in the same way we do. True to what fascist theory exalts and extolls, he just acts from gut instinct, which is why — perfect phrasing! — his Brownian strategy is so effective. (In the short term, anyway, and he'd better hope there is no "long term," because in the long term I'm quite sure it all falls to pieces.)
posted by adamgreenfield at 11:58 AM on March 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


Does anyone know if structuring campaign expenditure in this way to avoid scrutiny is itself illegal?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:00 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


He doesn't have an OODA loop in the same way we do. True to what fascist theory exalts and extolls, he just acts from gut instinct, which is why — perfect phrasing! — his Brownian strategy is so effective. (In the short term, anyway, and he'd better hope there is no "long term," because in the long term I'm quite sure it all falls to pieces.)

you can't win a farting contest by playing chess
posted by murphy slaw at 12:01 PM on March 16, 2018 [39 favorites]


I feel like Nigel Tufnel from Spinal Tap. How much more Trump can this be? None more Trump. This is disgusting.

Trump wildlife protection board stuffed with trophy hunters.
WASHINGTON (AP) — A new U.S. advisory board created to help rewrite federal rules for importing the heads and hides of African elephants, lions and rhinos is stacked with trophy hunters, including some members with direct ties to President Donald Trump and his family.

A review by The Associated Press of the backgrounds and social media posts of the 16 board members appointed by Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke indicates they will agree with his position that the best way to protect critically threatened or endangered species is by encouraging wealthy Americans to shoot some of them.

One appointee co-owns a private New York hunting preserve with Trump’s adult sons. The oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., drew the ire of animal rights activists after a 2011 photo emerged of him holding a bloody knife and the severed tail of an elephant he killed in Zimbabwe.
posted by scalefree at 12:04 PM on March 16, 2018 [52 favorites]


0xFCAF - Rachel Maddow has a tip line that her staff actually reviews. This may be very interesting to them.
posted by Sophie1 at 12:07 PM on March 16, 2018 [55 favorites]


I sent a link to the data analysis comment to the TPM tip inbox. Pretty great stuff there.
posted by lazaruslong at 12:08 PM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


I am with From Bklyn! OxCACF, take a f*cking bow!
posted by goalyeehah at 12:09 PM on March 16, 2018 [28 favorites]


What's the difference between OxFCAF's analysis and the Medium article's analysis?
posted by snwod at 12:10 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]



Statistical Model Strongly Suggests the Stormy Daniels Payoff Came from the Trump Campaign


And now I have a great example to teach students what a null hypotheses is.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:10 PM on March 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


I sent a link to the data analysis comment to the TPM tip inbox. Pretty great stuff there.

So did I, independently. :D
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:11 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


I sent it to Joe Pesci. I don't know why, I just figured he'd enjoy it.
posted by delfin at 12:14 PM on March 16, 2018 [113 favorites]


The medium article approach uses a probabilistic model to determine the odds of a "transaction like this one" appearing in the data.

My approach actually looks for "transactions like this one" in the data.

Arguably you need both to come to a firm conclusion.

I'm working on a gist on and off and will be updating it with more explanatory text as I'm able to. Also sending this to Maddow etc
posted by 0xFCAF at 12:14 PM on March 16, 2018 [127 favorites]


Ahhhh, it's a Friday afternoon. What story have they decided to wait to bury the lead on this week? Surely they got one more in 'em.
::Takes a sip of tea, refreshes browser::
posted by hillabeans at 12:15 PM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


What's the difference between OxFCAF's analysis and the Medium article's analysis?

Think of it as peer-review and replication of results, unless 0xFCAF happens to be the author of the Medium article.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 12:16 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Cool. Thanks for the explanations.
posted by snwod at 12:17 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


> What's the difference between OxFCAF analysis and the Medium article's analysis?

Nerd alert, but the two analyses are exploring related, but different questions.

The Medium article asks, how often do a few random (simulated) payments add up to within a dollar of $130,000? (This being the special "payoff" number.) And the answer is, not very often at all.

0xFCAF's analysis asks a different question: do small subsets of the (real world) payments made by the Trump campaign to the Trump organization often add up close to round multiples of $10,000? And the answer is, the only multiple they ever add up to (out of 9 million possible combinations) is the one case where they came in at 129,999.72, and that just so happened to be on the same week that PP was paid off to the tune of $130,000.00.

But I'm sure that's just a coincidence. Yep.
posted by RedOrGreen at 12:20 PM on March 16, 2018 [109 favorites]


The medium article asks the question: what is the probability of finding a result like this if the payments were made randomly? Its important because a skeptic could just say, oh, thats just by chance that those payments totaled that amount. But the probability of randomly generated payments getting as close to or closer than the amount actually paid is about 1 in 1,000.

OxFCAF's method asks: how many groups of payments made by the trump campaign in a short period of time totaled something close to a round number? The answer is one.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:21 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


In more social science terms, the medium article conducts inference using a null hypothesis, while OxFCAF uses a placebo test.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:23 PM on March 16, 2018 [37 favorites]


> 4. The only one I think is actually plausible is the idea that some Russia-related actor but not the Russian state did it - some oligarch or gangster with reasons of their own and access to some kind of dangerous nerve agent.

This is the only alternative explanation that is even 10% plausible.

But the way Putin has been taking a victory lap over these killings and poisonings really takes the wind out of all of these alternative explanations. If this were really some rogue group that had somehow gotten ahold of the Russian nerve gas stockpiles and was using them to kill people while pasting the blame on Putin and/or the Russian government, Putin would be acting in a very, very different way right now.

This is much like the victory lap Putin took after the Trump election, when he as much as admitted--and bragged about--Russia's role in the election, while offering a few paper-thin verbal denials to retain a modest air of plausible deniability about the whole.

The important thing here is that the act of publicly claiming credit afterwards is an important part of the action itself. It's not just poisoning or killing someone or influencing the election. It's LETTING PEOPLE KNOW, very clearly, that you are capable of doing it at any time and any place.

TL;DR: We know damn good and well that Putin is responsible for this stuff because he's told us so himself, through words and actions.
posted by flug at 12:29 PM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


The medium article approach uses a probabilistic model to determine the odds of a "transaction like this one" appearing in the data.

My approach actually looks for "transactions like this one" in the data.


And crucially, they concur. A consistent reality picture as to the most likely explanation emerges from a consideration of both. This is as close to a smoking gun as anything other than an own-goal, failson-Don-Jr.-style admission is ever likely to be.
posted by adamgreenfield at 12:30 PM on March 16, 2018 [41 favorites]


Campaign finance law, from the FEC: Using campaign funds for personal use is prohibited.

Commission regulations provide a test, called the “irrespective test,” to differentiate legitimate campaign and officeholder expenses from personal expenses. Under the “irrespective test,” personal use is any use of funds in a campaign account of a candidate (or former candidate) to fulfill a commitment, obligation or expense of any person that would exist irrespective of the candidate’s campaign or responsibilities as a federal officeholder.

More simply, if the expense would exist even in the absence of the candidacy or even if the officeholder were not in office, then the personal use ban applies.

posted by mudpuppie at 12:34 PM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


More simply, if the expense would exist even in the absence of the candidacy or even if the officeholder were not in office, then the personal use ban applies.

I mean, technically, Trump wouldn't have to pay hush money to porn stars if he wasn't a candidate, so uh, I guess he's in the clear.
posted by wabbittwax at 12:37 PM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Fired top diplomat Rex Tillerson says he’s praying for America. Thanks, we're gonna need it.
posted by monospace at 12:40 PM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Jim Acosta reported a WH source said, wrt the possible purge of monsters and replacing them with worse ones, "Everyone loves a season finale."

There's something I'm feeling that's existential but also involves a feeling of a need to vomit. Oh! Existential nausea! Is that what this is?
posted by angrycat at 12:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


Fuck you too, Rex. Don't pray, blow the fucking whistle on these dipshits.
posted by aiglet at 12:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [71 favorites]


It took me like six tries to parse that headline. I kept trying to figure out which diplomat was talking about Rex Tillerson because "Top diplomat Rex Tillerson" just isn't a cromulent noun phrase—it should be something like "infamous diplomacy-disrupter Rex Tillerson" or "diametrical anti-diplomat Rex Tillerson".
posted by The Tensor at 12:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


Somebody responded to that "Season Finale" tweet with the hope that it would be a Newhart finale style 'it's all been a dream now welcome Madame President'
posted by angrycat at 12:47 PM on March 16, 2018 [47 favorites]


So if crowdfunded donations to Stormy Daniel's legal campaign end up exceeding her legal costs, can she use the excess to fund a political campaign?
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:50 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


$129,999.72

You do realize the 28 cents was left off so as to provide deniability: We didn't send $130,000 for this payment.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:50 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


The funny thing is if this *billionaire* wasn't such a cheap bastard and actually paid on his own just a few hundred dollars of the $130k payoff, it would totally look like a fluke. But no, he had to get almost every penny back.
posted by chris24 at 12:53 PM on March 16, 2018 [39 favorites]


You do realize the 28 cents was left off so as to provide deniability: We didn't send $130,000 for this payment.

Also because Trump is a huge cheapskate and would totally cheat someone out of 28 cents just for the hell of it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:55 PM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


The funny thing is if this *billionaire* wasn't such a cheap bastard and actually paid on his own just a few hundred dollars of the $130k payoff, it would totally look like a fluke. But no, he had to get almost every penny back.

I was actually kinda sceptical initially, both because million to one chances happen nine times out of ten, but also because I couldn't see how anyone who money launders for a living would be so mind-numbingly stupid as to not obfuscate the amount at least a little.

Also surprised that he didn't add in an extra 10% at least for himself.
posted by Buntix at 12:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


American Express took a chunk of the payments for themselves, making the closeness of the total to the settlement cost extra unnecessary and incompetent.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:00 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


Are violations of campaign finance law prosecutable via the impeachment process?
posted by ZeusHumms at 1:02 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Are violations of campaign finance law prosecutable via the impeachment process?

Anything is an impeachable offense, if there is the political will to do so. At this moment, there isn't.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 1:05 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


What is impeachable is whatever Congress decides is impeachable. They could decline to impeach Trump for being a serial killer or a paid agent of Russia, and they could decide to impeach him because he once violated a campaign finance law by overpaying $0.01.
posted by Justinian at 1:05 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


Are violations of campaign finance law prosecutable via the impeachment process?

The impeachment process is for prosecuting "high crimes and misdemeanors."

The definition of "high crimes and misdemeanors" is whatever a majority of the House and 2/3 of the Senate agrees it is.
posted by Uncle Ira at 1:06 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


Somebody responded to that "Season Finale" tweet with the hope that it would be a Newhart finale style 'it's all been a dream now welcome Madame President'

I'll leave out the names to avoid a 2020 speculation derail, but this morning in the car my wife and I got talking about possible 2020 candidates. After a couple names I like, it occurred to me how none of them can equal Hillary Clinton's resume. Not that any of the resumes are bad at all, but none are like hers.

My wife pointed out it's really not about the resume, particularly with this dipshit in office. Anyone who runs against him is bound to be more qualified. But that only made me feel worse about it, really. I think about how massively qualified Clinton was for the job, how massively unqualified Cheeto Mussolini is...and how many people didn't care.

I still don't know how I'll ever forgive anyone for voting for him. And I don't know why I should try.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:10 PM on March 16, 2018 [93 favorites]


Not to abuse edit windows: I guess what I'm saying is it's important to move on, and I think I have, but moving on doesn't mean you're done grieving.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:11 PM on March 16, 2018 [13 favorites]


Forensic Accounting is a Thing, and I am deadly curious how close 0xFCAF (glorious!) work is to best practice in that field.

To put it another way, is this the sort of evidence that routinely convinces judges to convict in fraud cases?
posted by wires at 1:13 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


NPR just continued what seems to be a disturbing Trend in its Friday weekly political report. For the second time in a month, it had a conservative columnist as usual, but instead of a liberal columnist, it had a media reporter. Casting a reporter into the role normally occupied by the likes of EJ Dionne or another liberal columnist falsely concedes that the media is, in fact, liberal.
posted by Gelatin at 1:16 PM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


I have to wonder: did OxFCAF also inadvertently exculpate the Trump Organization of any other illegal/questionable structuring of a similar nature? As in, the payment to Daniels looks like the only time something like it has happened?

Or should we not expect that other instances of structuring (which is also called "smurfing" according to Wikipedia!) would add up to such round numbers? Or was this just a specific time window?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:18 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


Alternately, and I know this isn't the intended framing, it correctly implies that conservatives are opposed not to "liberals" but to the concept of facts.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:19 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


InTheYear2017 I was wondering that too, I was thinking there might be others. But it actually might be that this is the only time they did it sloppily. They were rushed, right? Because they had missed the deadline?
posted by Brainy at 1:24 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


The important thing here is that the act of publicly claiming credit afterwards is an important part of the action itself.

Just like terrorism.
posted by Gelatin at 1:25 PM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


I am by no means an expert, but I think the next step in an investigation would be to start digging into the set of payments that are identified as part of the transaction. They are each listed as being for something legitimate (facility rental, lodging, etc.) - gather evidence and/or issue subpoenas to determine whether the listed service was or was not really provided. Hotel lodging? Who stayed there, for what dates, and in what rooms? It's hard to construct a fraudulent set of facts behind a large payment that holds up under scrutiny.
posted by allegedly at 1:27 PM on March 16, 2018 [18 favorites]


I have to wonder: did OxFCAF also inadvertently exculpate the Trump Organization of any other illegal/questionable structuring of a similar nature? As in, the payment to Daniels looks like the only time something like it has happened?

If I understand the description, the search only included $90k-$170k in $10k increments. If there was a $50k instance, or $95k, or $180k, that wasn't in the criteria.
posted by Kriesa at 1:29 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


Now that's some eponystericality, right there.
"allegedly, indeed."
posted by rp at 1:29 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


did OxFCAF also inadvertently exculpate the Trump Organization of any other illegal/questionable structuring of a similar nature?

No. 0xFCAF was looking for values in ten-thousand dollar increments centered around the known value of the Stormy Daniels settlement payment. Other settlement payments might be half the size, double the size, or $5k more than the Daniels payment, and would go undetected.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:31 PM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


0xFCAF, how hard is it to tweak your code to run on shuffled versions of the data? You can can bootstrap a false positive rate directly from the data for added confirmation that it's not a fluke. My prediction would be that you'd essentially see no false positives when running on 100 random shuffles of the data, further bolstering the evidence for money laundering.
posted by biogeo at 1:31 PM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


To put it another way, is this the sort of evidence that routinely convinces judges to convict in fraud cases?

I'm not a forensic accountant, but for a time in my misguided youth I was in charge of Accounts Receivable at a ladies wear company. The way it goes is you start with the ledger and work your way down to the dress:
Dear Sirs;

Our records indicate several unpaid invoices. Attached please find copies of the relevant purchase order, the invoices, and the signed receipt from UPS indicating successful delivery. Please also note that two of the items were returned to us for alterations; those invoices are unpaid as well.

Please advise.

Warmly,

Notyou
A/R Clerk
Dress Factory
Just swap in details from 0xFCAF's analysis, plus Bob Mueller's name and office at the end there, and wait for the check to arrive.
posted by notyou at 1:43 PM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Stormy's lawyer is on with Jake Tapper.

@amandawgolden (CNN)
.@jaketapper: "Is there anything in the litany of accusations, you would call them facts, that surround this case that happened while Donald Trump was President?"
@MichaelAvenatti: "Yes."

@TheLeadCNN
You say your client, Stormy Daniels, felt “physically threatened” to stay silent about what she knew about Donald Trump

Daniels’ attorney: “I didn’t say she ‘felt’ physically threatened — what I said was, she ‘was’ physically threatened.”
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 1:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [90 favorites]


New from Pew, just more confirmation that in white evangelicalism, Jesus is just a cover story for white supremacist fascism.

White evangelicals approve of Trump's job performance (78%) at twice the rate of the general public (39%).
posted by chris24 at 1:50 PM on March 16, 2018 [72 favorites]


Alternately, and I know this isn't the intended framing, it correctly implies that conservatives are opposed not to "liberals" but to the concept of facts.

While that latter part is true enough, the segment was their weekly Friday Roundup, in which they typically have a liberal and conservative provide commentary and opinion on the week's events. As far back as I remember, that's been the format.

So while journalists can provide worthy insight and opinion on the stories of the week, the problem is the format casts them, exlcusively, on the liberal side. Which is not an implication, let alone a concession, NPR has any place making.
posted by Gelatin at 1:53 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


I would like 0xFCAF to see if other "Trump" payments can be totaled to reach values close to $1k increments, ranging from much smaller to much larger than the Stormy Daniels settlement amount. Maybe something will stick out like a sore thumb. If so, we'll have the approximate date of another payment Trump didn't want us to know about.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:00 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


wabbittwax: "
I mean, technically, Trump wouldn't have to pay hush money to porn stars if he wasn't a candidate, so uh, I guess he's in the clear.
"

Except Trump seems to have paid off many sex workers previous to his run for president.

scaryblackdeath: "I think about how massively qualified Clinton was for the job, how massively unqualified Cheeto Mussolini is...and how many people didn't care."

Every time I think about the resumes of the candidate who lost and the candidate who won I want to stab myself with a spork.
posted by Mitheral at 2:01 PM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


The part that has me kind of skeptical it still isn't some kind of big coincidence (a very big one) is that the payments were to a variety of Trump properties, all of which would have their own books and accounts. The trail of how the money traveled doesn't really make sense to me. Cohen said he got the money out of his home equity loan. If the theory is that the campaign reimbursed him by funneling money through the Trump Organization, how did the money make it from several different entities back to Cohen? Bringing multiple properties (and the staff who handle accounting at each one) into it would increase scrutiny. And it the theory is that Cohen got stiffed (he should have known who he was working for), why make the payments at all?

There are also two transactions for the Vegas hotel for lodging on the 25th. One is [in] and one is [out], in 0xFCAF's terminology. I can certainly imagine a scheme that included real invoices amid fake ones, but essentially throwing away a data point so it all adds up to $129,999.72 is a little bit of starting with the hypothesis and working backwards.

I'm not saying they didn't necessarily funnel money from the campaign, but "oh, we'll launder most of the money through the Vegas hotel, but let's just do ~6.5% of our laundering through the DC golf club" seems like a strange way to run such an operation.

The bit of the story that's fascinating me is that City National Bank opened an internal investigation into the payment, asking Daniels’s lawyer where the money came from. That happened a year later in September 2017. I don't think banks just randomly start asking questions about a year-old transaction, so something happened around then to cause them to be suspicious. Who or what brought it to their attention then, months before the story broke?
posted by zachlipton at 2:04 PM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


(Click through for links to the images)
That's cool, with all the links and the evidence and numbers and facts... but have you ever noticed that the the redacted document is written in Times New Roman, 12 point font. 6 inch page width.

Although it only takes 5 minutes to see if the name "Donald John Trump" fits in there, I've also got the 30 second clickbait version for those of reddit-tier intelligence.

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/84xnpy/stormy_daniels_lawyer_we_both_fear_for_our/dvte9d5/
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:06 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


I'm not saying they didn't necessarily funnel money from the campaign, but "oh, we'll launder most of the money through the Vegas hotel, but let's just do ~6.5% of our laundering through the DC golf club" seems like a strange way to run such an operation.

I don't see why. It's obfuscation. Just like the 28 cents. Trump owns all of these properties and doesn't care which of them receives the money from his campaign.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:09 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


If the theory is that the campaign reimbursed him by funneling money through the Trump Organization, how did the money make it from several different entities back to Cohen?

The individual entities didn't have to pay Cohen piecemeal. The Trump Organization (or Trump himself) would have paid Cohen as part of their normal legal bills, knowing that, ultimately, the Organization (and thus Trump) had already been paid by the campaign.
posted by jedicus at 2:12 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


Nobody should be able to read the summary at the end of 0xFCAF's post and think that this is a coincidence. The presence of presumably legitimate payments to Trump properties around the same time in no way invalidates his findings. The other payments are irrelevant.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:13 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


There are also two transactions for the Vegas hotel for lodging on the 25th. One is [in] and one is [out], in 0xFCAF's terminology. I can certainly imagine a scheme that included real invoices amid fake ones, but essentially throwing away a data point so it all adds up to $129,999.72 is a little bit of starting with the hypothesis and working backwards.

I'm assuming that payments were tossed out if they were stable, recurring payments rather than one-off payments.
posted by jedicus at 2:15 PM on March 16, 2018


I'm assuming that payments were tossed out if they were stable, recurring payments rather than one-off payments.

I did not exclude regular payments - I don't really have a working definition for what that would be. But none of the amounts in the specified sequence are amounts that occur anywhere else. The excluded "PAYROLL" entry, $2,574.43, is indeed extremely common in the data.
posted by 0xFCAF at 2:16 PM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


in white evangelicalism, Jesus is just a cover story for white supremacist fascism.

That's such a brutal conclusion. I mean I come from a family of white evangelicals and it hurts me to see that. But...

Anti-Trump evangelical Michael Gerson says of Trump's support among evangelicals: "This is the result when Christians become one interest group among many, scrambling for benefits at the expense of others rather than seeking the welfare of the whole."

I'm not sure there's any difference between the substance of that conclusion and "white supremacist fascism". Gerson's piece says "Christians" in that particular quote, but throughout the body of the piece he acknowledges that it's white evangelicals specifically, and not Christians generally, who have decided to cleave to Trump.

White people seeking "benefits at the expense of others" is pretty much the definition of "white supremacy."

Gerson says "The moral convictions of many evangelical leaders have become a function of their partisan identification."

I think "moral convinctions - become a function of partisan identification" is certainly related to the definition of "fascism." Under fascism, morality is what the ruling party says it is.

Gerson says the story of white evangelical support for Trump "is the story of how an influential and culturally confident religious movement became a marginalized and anxious minority seeking political protection." That reminds me of this quote:

"In a transnational study of ethnic violence, MIT political scientist Roger Petersen found that a major risk factor for ethnic violence was anger stemming from “the feeling of being politically dominated by a group that has no right to be in a superior position.” Typically, that occurs when an ethnic group that was formally subordinate achieves new status and power."

I think it's fair to say that dynamic is related to the history of white supremacy in the US and fascism in Europe. And it matches Gerson's description perfectly.

I'm forced to conclude that people like my family members can be generous to me personally, generous to the the poor in their own communities, kind to animals, loving parents of their children, selfless caretakers of their elderly relatives... and also be white supremacist fascists. I just don't know what to do with that conclusion.
posted by OnceUponATime at 2:19 PM on March 16, 2018 [110 favorites]


I would think the theory is that these various Trump properties then paid invoices to “Essential Consultants, LLC.” It’s a bland name that wouldn’t raise suspicion on their books by itself. Cohen then paid $0.28 himself so he can truthfully claim that he used his own money to “facilitate” the payment.
posted by stopgap at 2:26 PM on March 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


Doesn't Phil Ruffin own part of the Vegas hotel (this article says it's a 50/50 split)? My point is that the Organization is not a single monolithic entity. Money paid to its various parts would be accounted for at those entities. Trump profits from it, of course, but indirectly; $50K in the Trump International bank account is not the same as $50K in Trump's pocket, not least because he doesn't own the whole hotel. There would have to be a whole separate layer of sham payments out of the Trump companies, involving another bunch of accountants and fraudulent invoices and such, which is I guess possible, but dramatically increases the chances of someone finding out.

I very much don't want to be negative about 0xFCAF's fantastic work; there's just a bunch of parts of the chain of events that would have had to occur on Trump's side for this to happen that seem a bit strange to me. I'm not at dead certainty is all.

I would think the theory is that these various Trump properties then paid invoices to “Essential Consultants, LLC.” It’s a bland name that wouldn’t raise suspicion on their books by itself.

Cohen is really damn stupid (arranging the payment using his Trump Org. email, for example), but having traceable payments directly from Trump properties to EC would be incredibly bad work on his part. Which, ordinarily, would make me believe that couldn't have happened, but it's hard to overstate just how stupid this man is.
posted by zachlipton at 2:32 PM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


Interesting new Guardian on Vil Mirzayanov who worked at the Novichok factory, commenting on the challenges of weaponizing it, and likelihood of state culpability in the Skirpal attack.


Mirzayanov said he did not feel fear for himself or his family in speaking about novichok and Russia.

“It may be a little bit crazy, but when I decide something, I’m going exactly to do it, without any distraction, to some goal,” he said. “I’m a very determined person. Because of that, if I’ve decided, all of it is gone, any fear – I don’t feel any fear.”

posted by maniabug at 2:41 PM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Who could have known...

WaPo: Democrats balk as Republicans try to use must-pass spending bill to fix tax law
Republicans aiming to use an upcoming spending bill to fix a glaring problem with their recently passed tax overhaul are running into a wall with Democrats, who were shut out of the tax law process and now don’t want to cooperate unless they get something in return. ... Democrats say they warned Republicans that pushing through the $1.5 trillion tax law in a matter of weeks — without public hearings — would result in problems and unintended consequences. And now that such issues are emerging, some Democrats resent being asked to lend their votes to a solution.
I'm not sure why this is framed as "Democrats say ..." when the facts are plain, and who are those other Democrats who don't resent being asked to help fix things now? But whatever, I guess. Of course it will be up to the Democrats to be the responsible adults and make sure agribusinesses don't get nuked, and of course they will then face ads complaining about Democrats raising taxes.

I'm so tired of this bullshit.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [45 favorites]


. I believe Cohen's very specific statements that he made the payment with personal funds and hadn't been reimbursed directly or indirectly from Trump's campaign or company.

So... He is still owed 28¢?
posted by Sys Rq at 2:46 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


"Kelly also said that Larry Kudlow’s past cocaine habit won’t be a problem for his security clearance, as it is public knowledge. Kelly joked that the 1990s were “a crazy time.”"

@ddale8: The Trump administration to prosecutors: Pursue the harshest possible sentences for non-violent drug offences The Trump administration to itself: Past cocaine use is no biggie, the '90s were wild times, man

To be clear, I don't think Kudlow's history with addiction should be disqualifying (his history of being horribly wrong about economics is plenty of reason there). His recovery is wonderful, and all the best to the man. But his addiction was the same condition the Trump Administration is currently throwing people in jail for years for having, predominately people of color.
posted by zachlipton at 2:47 PM on March 16, 2018 [99 favorites]


Which, ordinarily, would make me believe that couldn't have happened, but it's hard to overstate just how stupid this man is.

This is also why I'm sceptical about the '28 cents means deniability!' argument. If everything here is actual -- the use of the Trump.org email, the sloppy footwork -- I think it's totally believable that somebody messed up the math a little bit.
posted by halation at 2:47 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


@RWPUSA (Richard Painter, GWB's WH Ethics Lawyer)
John Bolton was by far the most dangerous man we had in the entire eight years of the Bush Administration. Hiring him as the president's top national security advisor is an invitation to war, perhaps nuclear war. This must be stopped at all costs.
posted by chris24 at 2:50 PM on March 16, 2018 [66 favorites]


Re: Bolton: there will be a confirmation hearing right?
posted by photoslob at 2:56 PM on March 16, 2018


I can certainly imagine a scheme that included real invoices amid fake ones, but essentially throwing away a data point so it all adds up to $129,999.72 is a little bit of starting with the hypothesis and working backwards.

I mean, sort of, but that's not a problem. Allowing data points to be "thrown away" like this actually increases the likelihood of finding other sequences that would sum to $130k or a similar round number. It also doesn't necessarily imply a "scheme" on the part of the Trump campaign, just for the money laundering transactions to be buried among and interleaved with other transactions, which is reasonable enough to assume. The real question is, how often do you end up with a subset of 11 sequential transactions that total nearly $130k by random chance, following the procedure 0xFCAF followed? The fact that such a sequence occurs only once in the entire dataset (including when testing for other round-number sums) is a very compelling argument that the probability of this occurring by coincidence is very low. Shuffling the data would give another fairly direct way of estimating the probability of this being a coincidence.
posted by biogeo at 2:57 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Re: Bolton: there be a confirmation hearing right?

No, straight appointment.
posted by diogenes at 2:57 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


I think it's totally believable that somebody messed up the math a little bit.

Trump’s Razor cuts both ways here. The stupid explanation could be that they are sloppy with numbers. But the equally stupid possibility is that whoever came up with this plan really thought that a 28¢ discrepancy would make investigators think “nope, it ain’t exact, everything is legal here!”

What we have here is a rare case of Schrödinger’s Stupidity. Unfortunately there’s no box to open.
posted by middleclasstool at 2:59 PM on March 16, 2018 [16 favorites]



Re: Bolton: there be a confirmation hearing right?

No, straight appointment.


The NSA is an aide position - direct appointment, no confirmation needed. There's an extra stipulation for some rank of general but I've never dug into the precedent/rationale for that.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:04 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Is Director CIA a senior enough position that Pompeo does not require additional Senate confirmation to take over as SecState? I think... probably?
posted by Justinian at 3:07 PM on March 16, 2018


Why underpay Cohen by a few shiny nickels? Because he can go under oath and truthfully say "I did not receive $130,000 from the Trump Campaign. Stormy Daniels received money out of my own pocket."

Remember, this is Stupid Watergate.
posted by 0xFCAF at 3:08 PM on March 16, 2018 [24 favorites]


Although a quick googling suggest otherwise and says he will need reconfirmation. So fuck if I understand anything anymore.
posted by Justinian at 3:08 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Atlantic, Peter Beinart, The Nancy Pelosi Problem "The first female speaker of the House has become the most effec­tive congressional leader of modern times—and, not coinciden­tally, the most vilified."
In addition to being a masterful legislative tactician, the 77-year-old Pelosi is, in Politico’s words, “the most successful nonpresidential political fundraiser in U.S. history.” Yet many of her colleagues want her gone. In November 2016, almost a third of House Democrats voted to depose her as leader. Another coup attempt erupted last summer. Why so much discontent with a woman who has proved so good at her job? Maybe because many Democrats think Pelosi’s unpopularity undermines their chances of winning back the House. Why is she so unpopular? Because powerful women politicians usually are. Therein lies the tragedy. Nancy Pelosi does her job about as well as anyone could. But because she’s a woman, she may not be doing it well enough.
...
Gender scholars would not be surprised. For a 2010 paper in the Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, the Yale researchers Victoria Brescoll and Tyler Okimoto showed study participants the fictional biographies of two state senators, identical except that one was named John Burr and the other Ann Burr. (I referred to this study in an October 2016 article for this magazine called “Fear of a Female President.”) When quotations were added that described the state senators as “ambitious” and possessing “a strong will to power,” John Burr became more popular. But the changes provoked “moral outrage” toward Ann Burr, whom both men and women became less willing to support.

Nancy Pelosi, by leading her party in Congress, has become Ann Burr. A woman can serve in Congress without being perceived as overly ambitious. By climbing to the top of the greasy pole, however, Pelosi has made her ambition visible. She has gained the power to tell her male colleagues what to do. (The pollster Celinda Lake notes that most ads attacking Pelosi show her speaking, not listening.) She has put herself, to quote the anti-Ossoff ad, “in control.”
I do think this article doesn't give quite enough attention to the idea that some Democrats may be upset that Pelosi may be more moderate than they are ("The party, after all, is moving left, where Pelosi has been all along" is not entirely wrong, but I'm not convinced it's entirely an accurate description), so we don't need to have the "I have perfectly good reasons for disliking Pelosi that have nothing to do with sexism" fight in this thread. The extent to which Pelosi is vilified more than Schumer is really, really hard to ignore.
posted by zachlipton at 3:20 PM on March 16, 2018 [52 favorites]


The NSA is an aide position - direct appointment, no confirmation needed. There's an extra stipulation for some rank of general but I've never dug into the precedent/rationale for that.

Three- and four-star generals need to be confirmed by the Senate because their rank is appointed by Congress.
posted by hanov3r at 3:21 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


Is there any reason why more left Democrats couldn’t just compromise with Pelosi? Given her skillset and experience she would be a powerful ally to have in pushing more progressive policies.
posted by gucci mane at 3:26 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


Except Trump seems to have paid off many sex workers previous to his run for president.

I would VERY MUCH like to know if Michael Cohen ( AKA Donald Trump ) paid off Jane Doe, the woman who sued him, and appeared ready to prevail on the preponderance of evidence, for raping her with Jeffrey Epstein in 1994, but withdrew her suit.

It cost Bill Clinton 800k for Paula Jones to withdraw her suit, and Trump settled the fraudulent Trump "university" suits for only 25M.
posted by mikelieman at 3:28 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Maybe because many Democrats think Pelosi’s unpopularity undermines their chances of winning back the House.
Appeasement in service of ineffective politics. I hope that this sentiment is increasingly rare among Democrats.
posted by LarsC at 3:29 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


Pelosi need to pass the baton. There's plenty of women in the House to take it.
posted by mikelieman at 3:35 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


Pelosi has fought this fight more than once -- and she hasn't lost so far. I don't expect there's another pol in the Dem House caucus who can pull it together enough to topple her this time, either.
posted by notyou at 3:35 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


Leslie Gibson has dropped out of his Maine State House race.

More coverage here.
posted by hanov3r at 3:36 PM on March 16, 2018 [31 favorites]


Pelosi need to pass the baton. There's plenty of women in the House to take it.

"I'd never vote for Clinton- but I'd vote for Warren!"

Warren becomes viable

"Warren is too right wing- but I don't hate women- I'd vote for Harris!"

Harris becomes viable

"Harris is a neoliberal! We need a different woman!"

rinse repeat forever.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 3:37 PM on March 16, 2018 [181 favorites]


Sure, why the hell not? Happy Friday everyone! Daily Beast, Lachlan/Swin, John Kelly: Rex Tillerson Was on the Toilet When I Told Him He’d Be Getting Fired
Reporters gathered at the White House on Friday were stunned when Chief of Staff John Kelly shared a very embarrassing story about outgoing Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

The reporters were there with senior White House officials for an off-the-record meeting with Kelly, who was attempting to tamp down speculation about an impending administration staff purge. The Daily Beast was not invited, but was briefed on its contents by three sources with knowledge of the meeting.

According to those sources, Kelly recounted a very awkward conversation with Tillerson during which he informed the secretary that President Donald Trump would very likely soon fire him. The awkwardness was less a result of the contents of the conversation than its setting.

Tillerson, Kelly told the room, was suffering from a stomach bug during a diplomatic swing through Africa, and was using a toilet when Kelly broke the news to him.
Swin says "We sourced the, uh, shit out of this."
posted by zachlipton at 3:40 PM on March 16, 2018 [27 favorites]


Uneasy lies the Rex upon the throne
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:43 PM on March 16, 2018 [34 favorites]


I guess you could say ol' Rex got shit-canned.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


Christ why would they release a detail like that?

They all deserve each other.
posted by notyou at 3:48 PM on March 16, 2018 [84 favorites]


Christ why would they release a detail like that?

It’s a reality tv show. Why they don’t have the admission/confessional booth, I don’t know.

The good news is even stupid america stopped tuning into The Apprentice, and it got cancelled. So will this. So will this.
posted by valkane at 3:55 PM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


I mean, I guess? it's good to know that John Kelly is not a fucking nasty inhuman ratbastard exclusively to women and people of color but is capable of sometimes being a fucking nasty inhuman ratbastard to rich white guys as well. But still, he is a terrible person, and I wish him ill.
posted by FelliniBlank at 3:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


Tillerson, Kelly told the room, was using a toilet when Kelly broke the news to him.
Christ why?
It’s a reality tv show.


OR!

What about this:
You know how Putin's been running around spectacularly poisoning people left and right? Also, remember that weirdness they still haven't figured out with the "sonic weapon" giving Americans in the Cuban US embassy brain damage? Well, what if this is more sci-fi war games like that?

What if some enemy of the US has found a poison or a freaky circus weapon that can make people say blitheringly stupid shit all the time? Just the most jawdroppingly stupid shit imaginable? Just randomly, for no reason, people in DC grab a microphone and bleat the worst, stupidest possible thing into it? I know: sounds outlandish. But really, doesn't it pretty much explain everything that's happened?
posted by Don Pepino at 3:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


McMasters Death Watch update from ABC White House correspondent Tara Palmeri @tarapalmeri:
Caught up H.R. McMaster outside of the West Wing. He told me "Sarah set it straight yesterday. Everybody has got to leave the White House at some point"
I asked whether he's leaving sooner rather than later: "I'm doing my job" and then he walked away. No denial. [audio link]
Her colleague Karen Travers @karentravers adds,
ALSO - McMaster walked some guests out of the West Wing entrance. Right in front of several live cameras.
Perhaps making a clever pointed statement of "I'm still here" ?
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:59 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Trump Org. is privately owned, right? So the money from all these playments flows back to Trump eventually. No need to write out an incriminating check to Cohen. He relaxes for an evening of gambling at a Trump casino and his room has a briefcase with some chips in it when he arrives. Never forget that casinos (and their chips) are excellent ways to launder money.

True, Trump's half ownership of the Vegas hotel means he only gets half of that particular payment. But Donald wouldn't think of that, and there's no need to burden such a busy man with that level of detail. Probably not that much money anyway, just one of many payments.
posted by msalt at 4:03 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


What if some enemy of the US has found a poison or a freaky circus weapon that can make people say blitheringly stupid shit all the time? Just the most jawdroppingly stupid shit imaginable?

Honestly, for about a year now I’ve been operating on the assumption of a gas leak.
posted by mochapickle at 4:04 PM on March 16, 2018 [15 favorites]


Christ why would they release a detail like that?

Because Republicans are pod people who think these types of stories are quirky and funny and humanizing.
Remember Mitt Romney's hilarious anecdote about the time he strapped the family dog to the roof of his car and then the dog got sick and shat all over itself and the car? He happily revealed that fucked-up story because he thought it was relatable!
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:05 PM on March 16, 2018 [37 favorites]


Gibson said he made the decision after meeting with friends, family and colleagues, saying that his dropping out is “the best thing for everybody.” He also said that “I am not walking away with my head hung low. I am walking away with my head held high.”
you SHOULD be walking away with your head hung low after the way you behaved; either you're lying or you've learned nothing and neither look is good

Never forget that casinos (and their chips) are excellent ways to launder money.

never forget that Trump literally has used precisely that tactic before
posted by halation at 4:06 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


For a little late afternoon levity, noted alt-right personality and racist dipshit Tim "Baked Alaska" Gionet attempted to make a return to Twitter today and was promptly banned again.
posted by Existential Dread at 4:11 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


So with Gibson out and with Gilchrist having entered the race on the last day to file, does that mean she is now running unopposed? Because that's fucking awesome.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:12 PM on March 16, 2018 [16 favorites]


Georgia GOP pushes elimination of Sunday voting to suppress black turnout

They're not going to let Texas and Georgia and Arizona become swing states without a fight.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:14 PM on March 16, 2018 [51 favorites]


No, Republican Thomas Martin Jr., from Benton, also entered the race against Gilchrist, probably also on the last day.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:15 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Don Pepino: Also, remember that weirdness they still haven't figured out with the "sonic weapon" giving Americans in the Cuban US embassy brain damage?

There is now a pretty likely explanation for the symptoms, and if it's correct then it was accidental: multiple close-together ultrasound surveillance devices. As this article puts it: In this scenario, either the individual devices themselves or too many of them in close proximity could have had health effects unforeseen by the spies who placed them.

Why there'd be more than one bug in a room, I dunno, but maybe they were left by spies from different countries/organizations who didn't know about each other, or as the article said, maybe one bug went haywire. This does thicken the plot, but not in the mystery-weapon direction (probably), and either way the Cuban government's own absurd denial (they said it was cricket chirping) still makes sense.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 4:37 PM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Barry McCaffrey, retired four star general:

"Reluctantly I have concluded that President Trump is a serious threat to US national security. He is refusing to protect vital US interests from active Russian attacks. It is apparent that he is for some unknown reason under the sway of Mr Putin."
posted by chris24 at 4:43 PM on March 16, 2018 [100 favorites]


Saw this in the thread under Barry McCaffrey's tweet:

When he retired from the Army in 1996, he was the most decorated general officer serving at the time, with two Distinguished Service Crosses, two Silver Stars and three Purple Hearts.
posted by diogenes at 4:48 PM on March 16, 2018 [13 favorites]


I'd like to think we're not living in a badly written simulation, but a *Chuck Harder* is representing Trump in a case with a porn star.

@nycsouthpaw
Charles Harder is representing Donald Trump in the Stormy Daniels case.
SCREENSHOT OF FILING

EDIT:

This is a suit trying to move the Stormy suit to federal court. So Trump is officially involved now.
posted by chris24 at 4:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [14 favorites]


FYI: Charles Harder was the attorney that Thiel bankrolled in order to pursue Hulk Hogan's suit against Gawker.
posted by mhum at 5:00 PM on March 16, 2018 [21 favorites]


Trump gets Harder for Stormy Daniels
posted by porn in the woods at 5:02 PM on March 16, 2018 [113 favorites]


Harder's co-counsel is Stonerock.
posted by neroli at 5:30 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]



Is Director CIA a senior enough position that Pompeo does not require additional Senate confirmation to take over as SecState? I think... probably?
...
Although a quick googling suggest otherwise and says he will need reconfirmation. So fuck if I understand anything anymore.
...
The last time this was discussed, the distinction seemed to be that Pompeo is senior enough by virtue of already having been confirmed once to be appointed in an interim capacity without needing confirmation -- but if he was appointed in an interim capacity, he couldn't be nominated as the permanent Secretary. So yes, but also no.


He may serve as interim immediately, but must be confirmed for the permanent position within 210 days (per my admittedly novice reading and understanding of The Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998.)
posted by zakur at 5:34 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


Mod note: Rein in the riffing, please.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 5:36 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


Is this thread only Washington news or can I post this here? DeAndre Harris cleared of assault
posted by Botanizer at 5:41 PM on March 16, 2018 [28 favorites]


Pompeo can either be the acting SecState or the nominee to replace Tillerson permanently. Not both.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 5:41 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Harder's co-counsel is Stonerock.

[real]

Less amusingly, Charles Harder is the notorious lawyer who successfully represented Hulk Hogan against Gawker and Melania Trump against the Daily Mail, as well as providing legal counsel to such sterling citizens as Harvey Weinstein and Roger Ailes. He's also part of Jared Kushner's legal team. Michael Avenatti is facing a very tough opponent indeed.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:48 PM on March 16, 2018 [14 favorites]


Meh, he's apparently not THAT great as a lawyer...
posted by Emera Gratia at 6:00 PM on March 16, 2018


@KevinMKruse:
The Trump Cabinet This Week:

Tillerson: Shitcanned!
Mnuchin: $1m flights
Mattis: Theranos fraud
Sessions: McCabe threats
Zinke: Konichiwa!
Carson: Lied about $31K dining set
DeVos: "60 Minutes" disaster
Shulkin: Embattled, with armed guards outside office

That's just this week.

---

And this doesn't count Pruitt campaigning for AG and being told to shut it by Kelly. Or McMaster being hung out to dry publicly.

The. Best. People.
posted by chris24 at 6:05 PM on March 16, 2018 [85 favorites]


Regarding Kelly telling a roomful of reporters (off the record, but still) about Tillerson being on the can while getting the news that he's getting fired... how exactly did Kelly know? I figure there are four main possibilities:

1) Tillerson somehow just straight up tells Kelly. Maybe something like "Hey Jim, can we make this quick? I picked up some kind of bug and I'm shitting my brains out here.... No, like right now, as we speak."

2) Tillerson doesn't tell Kelly but Kelly can hear it through the phone. (yikes!)

3) Kelly hears about it later after the fact from someone else that Tillerson was pooping when he called.

4) This didn't happen at all and Kelly is just telling a story to further embarrass and diminish Tillerson.

Not sure which possibility is the most horrifying, though.
posted by mhum at 6:09 PM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


@allinwithchris
Felix Sater confirms: Trump was pursuing deal with sanctioned Russian bank during campaign

VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 6:16 PM on March 16, 2018 [58 favorites]


BBC: UK police launch murder investigation after death of Russian businessman Nikolai Glushkov in south-west London

Does anyone know if there's an up-to-date list of suspected Russian assassinations? I know last year Buzzfeed did a list of possible Russian hits that have taken place in the UK.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:18 PM on March 16, 2018


I have to confess I… don't really get that New Yorker cover. It's Trump in a fancy, extravagant robe. I guess they're going for a whole "thinks he's a king" thing? Eh. Still, the illustrator did a tremendous, just tremendous job with the clothes in it. Just beautiful
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:47 PM on March 16, 2018 [59 favorites]


Thatsthejoke.gif
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [27 favorites]


There's no robe. He's naked. Emperor has no clothes.

EDIT.

Ahh.
posted by chris24 at 6:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


David Carroll was my thesis professor and now he is maybe saving the country. Damn.
posted by Brainy at 6:58 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


And McCabe is out. What a week.
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 7:02 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]




Even more than usual, this has been Christ What an Asshole week. If I didn't know they were constitutionally incapable of forethought and planning, I would suspect they had made actual detailed plans to do every possible thing to look like the most petty, snide, venal, vindictive shitheads in all the world.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:08 PM on March 16, 2018 [23 favorites]


hanov3r: "Leslie Gibson has dropped out of his Maine State House race."

In case like me you have trouble keeping the scandals straight just by name Leslie Gibson is the Republican candidate for the Maine House of Representatives from Sabattus who called one student from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., “a skinhead lesbian” and another “a bald-faced liar.”

Gibson had been cruising toward an unopposed election in the district, which includes Sabattus and Greene. But his comments stirred both Martin [Thomas Jr. GOP] and Democrat Eryn Gilchrist to join the contest.

posted by Mitheral at 7:08 PM on March 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


They sure aren't trying to make any friends at the FBI.
posted by contraption at 7:12 PM on March 16, 2018 [9 favorites]


[Leslie Gibson] called one student from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., “a skinhead lesbian” and another “a bald-faced liar.”

And, according to the linked article, "later apologized to one of the students." I'm not going to ask the obvious question, 'cause the answer, whatever it is, wouldn't make me think any better of him anyways.
posted by jackbishop at 7:13 PM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


FBI’s Andrew McCabe is fired a little more than 24 hours before he could retire

Once again I'm put in the completely unexpected position of feeling sorry for an FBI agent
posted by dis_integration at 7:13 PM on March 16, 2018 [53 favorites]


Andrew McCabe has been fired

Because making an enemy of the FBI worked out so well for Nixon, right? "Those who cannot learn from history", etc, hopefully.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:14 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


Once again I'm put in the completely unexpected position of feeling sorry for an FBI agent

Not just an FBI agent, an FBI agent that made some really shitty decisions and was part of the whole insertion of the agency into the 2016 election. Nevertheless, he's being fired because he didn't make Russia go away and that's both really shitty and worrying.
posted by Talez at 7:23 PM on March 16, 2018 [32 favorites]


McCabe has put out a lengthy statement (here in full via Twitter), in which he does not mince words, describing this as:
an unprecedented effort by the Administration, driven by the President himself, to remove me from my position, destroy my reputation, and possibly strip me of a pension that I worked 21 years to earn. . . .

This attack on my credibility is one part of a larger effort not just to slander me personally, but to taint the FBI, law enforcement, and intelligence professionals more generally. It is part of the Administration's ongoing war on the FBI and the efforts of the Special Counsel investigation, which continue to this day. Their persistence in this campaign only highlights the importance of the Special Counsel's work.
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:26 PM on March 16, 2018 [105 favorites]


Obligatory TV Tropes link.
posted by Artw at 7:27 PM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


Also, from the NYT: In an interview, Andrew McCabe was blunt. “The idea that I was dishonest is just wrong,” he said, adding, “This is part of an effort to discredit me as a witness.”
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:30 PM on March 16, 2018 [19 favorites]


@chrisgeidner
FULL SESSIONS STATEMENT

@KevinMKruse
Retweeted Chris Geidner
Jeff Sessions is angry someone lied under oath. Jeff Sessions.
posted by chris24 at 7:38 PM on March 16, 2018 [69 favorites]


Oh, and the usual garnish of craven cowardice, from CNN: "A representative for McCabe said he learned from a press release that he had been fired by Sessions."
posted by FelliniBlank at 7:58 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Your occasional reminder that another disillusioned #2 at the FBI was the anonymous source "Deep Throat" in the Watergate Scandal that brought down Nixon.
posted by Rumple at 8:03 PM on March 16, 2018 [55 favorites]


On the positive side, at least someone in the FBI has a legit reason to say, "And he was only one day from retirement" as they open the bottle of scotch they keep in their desk drawer.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 8:05 PM on March 16, 2018 [47 favorites]


Trump wants to punish McCabe, so he has him fired just hours before his pension kicks in. That's a loss of many thousands of dollars earned over two decades.

Now there's a former FBI agent with tons of behind-the-scenes information about Trump and his administration, carrying a sizable chip on his shoulder against Trump, and looking for a way to replace that lost money.

Master strategist, ladies and gentlemen.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 8:09 PM on March 16, 2018 [128 favorites]


On the positive side, at least someone in the FBI has a legit reason to say, "And he was only one day from retirement" as they open the bottle of scotch they keep in their desk drawer.

I give pretty good odds that the next non-treasonous President re-enstates that pension.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:12 PM on March 16, 2018 [22 favorites]


Possibly McCabe has a lawsuit here for age discrimination at the least (firing before the pension kicks in, which is an old trick that these days no one does because it opens the org to lawsuit risk), plus the slander and defamation he alleges in this statement.

(According to Notyou’s partner, the HR executive. )

Should be fun.
posted by notyou at 8:15 PM on March 16, 2018 [17 favorites]


NYT reporting that Trump's lawyers have filed briefs indicating that Stormy Daniels has violated her NDA "at least 20 times".
Mr. Trump’s name surfaced in one of two motions his legal team filed Friday in Los Angeles. One, in the name of the shell company, Essential Consultants, sought to move the suit to federal court from Los Angeles Superior Court, where Ms. Clifford filed the suit.

The second motion, filed on Mr. Trump’s behalf, states that he joins Essential Consultants in seeking the change of venue and ends with the statement, “Mr. Trump intends to pursue his rights to the fullest extent permitted by the law.”
posted by hanov3r at 8:17 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


Mr. Trump intends to pursue his rights to the fullest extent permitted by the law.

Here we see the rhetorical power of understatement
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:19 PM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


Might have been easier if he'd signed the NDA
posted by mbo at 8:20 PM on March 16, 2018 [11 favorites]


Yes, Trump is suing for damages related to an affair he did not have and a payoff he did not finance in return for an NDA contract he did not sign that wasn't at all about him.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:21 PM on March 16, 2018 [138 favorites]


i honestly don’t know what to think of this one.

from TPM’s take:
This week the FBI’s Office of Professional Responsibility made the recommendation that McCabe fired, putting the decision on Sessions. But it may be weeks before the report is released, so the full scope of McCabe’s alleged misconduct remains unclear.
so to OPR recommended that he be fired, even though he was already halfway out the door. has OPR been politicized under Sessions? or is the report going to show that mccabe behaved even more irresponsibly than we already know?

this is absolutely the shittiest possible way to handle the situation, don’t get me wrong. it’s clearly retaliation as far as trump is concerned. but until we see the report it’s hard to tell how gratuitous it is.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:25 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


That's the best part, really. In filing this lawsuit; Donald J. Trump (aka Daniel Dennsion) is seeking damages for violating the NDA that was in place to keep Stormy Daniels from saying anything about who she had sex with... Donald J. Trump. So; the NDA is void.

This whole thing would have been a complete non-story if Trump had done either of two things:
1) "Nope, that'a a lie." because.. porn star. sure, some people would believe her. others would not. wouldn't matter because it would just go away.

2) "Yep, I did it. So?" because nothing matters anymore, he wouldn't face any consequences from his base about it, and it would be gone by now.

He really is, as someone up-thread put it, the stupidest stupid to ever have stupided.

$20 million in damages is an interesting number, though. I wonder if that's how much Melania gets in the pre-nup if he's unfaithful.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 8:28 PM on March 16, 2018 [41 favorites]


They have to fire McCabe because it provides someone to set up as mishandling the Clinton case and provides an opportunity to reopen it. Let the guy retire and not fire him and the narrative is not nearly so compelling.
posted by Bovine Love at 8:32 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


On the positive side, at least someone in the FBI has a legit reason to say, "And he was only one day from retirement" as they open the bottle of scotch they keep in their desk drawer.

I have not seen any reports that McCabe ever said "I'm getting too old for this shit."
posted by rhizome at 8:33 PM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


$20 million in damages is an interesting number, though. I wonder if that's how much Melania gets in the pre-nup if he's unfaithful.

i would be surprised that a guy who keeps lawyers on retainer to pay off his lovers would sign a pre-nup that left him exposed in that way but we are talking about trump here
posted by murphy slaw at 8:34 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


i would be surprised that a guy who keeps lawyers on retainer to pay off his lovers would sign a pre-nup that left him exposed in that way but we are talking about trump here

Also, every one of those lawyers on retainer is an incompetent wackjob in their own right. As opposed to Stormy Daniels and her lawyer Michael Avenatti, who are a pair of smart, fearless, successful badasses.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:44 PM on March 16, 2018 [4 favorites]


Good lawyers avoid Trump because 1. he won't listen to their advice, and 2. he often doesn't pay them.
posted by Miss Cellania at 8:58 PM on March 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


I have not seen any reports that McCabe ever said "I'm getting too old for this shit."

He didn't have to, it's the Trump administration, we're all too old for this shit, newborn babies are too old for this shit.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:04 PM on March 16, 2018 [33 favorites]


I wonder if that's how much Melania gets in the pre-nup if he's unfaithful.
Are you kidding? Trump's prenup likely allows him to fuck whoever, with specified penalties for Melania's unfaithfulness. Both of them knew what kind of cash/progeny-based marriage they were getting into.
posted by benzenedream at 9:05 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


so to OPR recommended that he be fired, even though he was already halfway out the door. has OPR been politicized under Sessions? or is the report going to show that mccabe behaved even more irresponsibly than we already know?

That's the question. I have a hard time beliveing that this incompetent administration has managed to reach all the way down to the FBI's OPR/OIG after they haven't managed to get nearly anything else done except whatever was already pre-packaged by Mitch McConnell, or the Kochs, or Heritage. We haven't seen the report of McCabe's conduct yet, and we KNOW the FBI itself committed serious malfeasance throughout the entire Hilary emails farce. I'm not pouring one out for McCabe until we see what that report tell us about what role he played in that.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:08 PM on March 16, 2018 [12 favorites]


Yes, Trump is suing for damages related to an affair he did not have and a payoff he did not finance in return for an NDA contract he did not sign that wasn't at all about him.

And Stormy's lawyer is all over it.

@MichaelAvenatti
How can President Donald Trump seek $20 million in damages against my client based on an agreement that he and Mr. Cohen claim Mr. Trump never was a party to and knew nothing about? #notwellthoughtout #sloppy #checkmate

---

@emptywheel
Shorter Donald Trump: I'm suing you for $20M for telling people I'm David Dennison which I've just confirmed by suing you for $20M.

---

@joshtpm
Points worth considering: What information could possibly be so damaging that a sitting President wld openly join a suit like this when we already know they had sex? There seem to be two issue.

First Daniels says that the President like to be humiliated, spanked etc in the sack. Apparently she mentions this in the 60 mins interview. The legal machinations behind the agreement also might get one or more lawyers disbarred or worse. That’s one.

Second goes way beyond Stormy Daniels. Daniels has an NDA. The same lawyer who repped her on the NDA also repped another Trump girlfriend who sold her story to the Enquirer which promptly buried it. Avenatti says 6 more women have already come forward to him and at least 2 of them say they’re under Trump NDAs. In Michael Wolff’s book Bannon said that he and Kasowitz ‘took care of’ 100 women during the Access Hollywood uproar in October 2016. I know they worked on this together from another source. So just how many NDA’d women are there? The answer speaks for itself. A lot.

This battle with Stormy Daniels is like The Battle of NDA Hill. If Daniels can break out and tell her story, it’ll be very hard to prevent the rest from doing the same, whether the process exposes defects in the contracts or whether fighting the women in court to stay silent simply becomes politically untenable.
posted by chris24 at 9:10 PM on March 16, 2018 [76 favorites]


@pwnallthethings: "So anyway here's a thread of the backstory of the attack on FBI Deputy Director (and for a while, Acting Director) Andy McCabe, based on emails to and from him obtained via #FOIA"

Very informative!
posted by FelliniBlank at 9:11 PM on March 16, 2018 [21 favorites]


Felix Sater confirms: Trump was pursuing deal with sanctioned Russian bank during campaign

hoping this doesn’t get missed in the general shit tornado.

wikipedia on the bank in question, VTB:
29 July 2014: the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) published that VTB Bank OAO, which is the second largest bank in Russia, together with its subsidiaries (“the VTB Group”) and the Bank of Moscow through its parent bank, VTB Bank OAO, and other entities have been added to the Specially Designated Nationals List (SDN) This freezes the assets in the United States of VTB, VTB Global, Bank of Moscow, and other entities; and blocks any United States citizen or entities from conducting business with VTB, VTB Global, Bank of Moscow, and other entities.
these sanctions were still in effect leading up to and during the 2016 campaign.

from the treasury department’s FAQ on OFAC and the SDN:
12. How much are the fines for violating these regulations?

The fines for violations can be substantial. In many cases, civil and criminal penalties can exceed several million dollars. Civil penalties vary by sanctions program, and the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990, as amended by the Federal Civil Penalty Inflation Adjustment Act Improvements Act of 2015, requires OFAC to adjust civil monetary penalty amounts annually. For current penalty amounts, see section V.B.2.a of Appendix A to OFAC’s Economic Sanctions Enforcement Guidelines at 31 C.F.R Part 501. [03-08-17]
this is very serious shit.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:13 PM on March 16, 2018 [63 favorites]


Trump tweets: Andrew McCabe FIRED, a great day for the hard working men and women of the FBI - A great day for Democracy. Sanctimonious James Comey was his boss and made McCabe look like a choirboy. He knew all about the lies and corruption going on at the highest levels of the FBI!
posted by guiseroom at 9:16 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


this is very serious shit.

And in the interview with Sater, it's clear there are emails between him and Cohen talking about putting together a deal for Trump Moscow using this Russian partner and sanctioned bank. In fact he tries to downplay them by saying they will sound worse than they really are because Cohen and he were just excited their guy Trump might become president.
posted by chris24 at 9:17 PM on March 16, 2018 [10 favorites]


@PreetBharara
Once upon a time I thought Alberto Gonzales was the weakest and most craven Attorney General in modern times. I was wrong.
posted by chris24 at 9:22 PM on March 16, 2018 [96 favorites]


Sanctimonious James Comey was his boss and made McCabe look like a choirboy.

He's calling Comey worse than McCabe in order to frame his firing of Comey as super-extra-justified. The actual subject of the tweet isn't McCabe but looming obstruction charges.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:23 PM on March 16, 2018 [20 favorites]


i’m sure that the special prosecutor will take that tweet into account when deciding whether or not to file an obstruction charge.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:26 PM on March 16, 2018 [8 favorites]


(Andrea Mitchell, NBC) @mitchellreports: One suggestion from a McCabe supporter: if a friendly member of Congress hired him for a week he could possibly qualify for pension benefits by extending his service the extra days
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:27 PM on March 16, 2018 [24 favorites]


The book deal he's going to get will make up for a lot of pension.
posted by chris24 at 9:28 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


i’m sure that the special prosecutor will take that tweet into account when deciding whether or not to file an obstruction charge.

As well as the time he asked McCabe who he had voted for. And the time he castigated McCabe for letting Comey fly home from LA on an FBI plane after being fired. And the time Trump told McCabe to ask his wife how it felt to be a loser. And the time in December when he tweeted: "FBI Director Andrew McCabe is racing the clock to retire with full benefits. 90 days to go?!!!"
posted by FelliniBlank at 9:31 PM on March 16, 2018 [60 favorites]


The book deal he's going to get will make up for a lot of pension.

The lawsuit he’s going to win. That Presidential tweet!
posted by notyou at 9:35 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


The lawsuit he’s going to win. That Presidential tweet!

@PreetBharara
Retweeted Donald J. Trump
This is called lawsuit Exhibit A

@RadioFreeTom
Retweeted Donald J. Trump
So much for the fig leaf of arguing that McCabe was fired for any other reason but a political vendetta and his connection to Comey.
posted by chris24 at 9:39 PM on March 16, 2018 [92 favorites]


In any kind of sane world, which I'm well aware we've long since left that category, Trump would be impeached and arrested -tonight- for obstruction, -just for this tweet-, absent any other evidence necessary.
posted by Archelaus at 9:42 PM on March 16, 2018 [33 favorites]


That's the question. I have a hard time beliveing that this incompetent administration has managed to reach all the way down to the FBI's OPR/OIG after they haven't managed to get nearly anything else done except whatever was already pre-packaged by Mitch McConnell, or the Kochs, or Heritage.

Isn't OPR a part of the DOJ? Seems like it would be easy peasy for the evil Keebler to politicize after all.
posted by un petit cadeau at 9:43 PM on March 16, 2018


Sure it was posted back when, but from January 26th...

Foreign Policy: Trump Launched Campaign to Discredit Potential FBI Witnesses
President Donald Trump pressed senior aides last June to devise and carry out a campaign to discredit senior FBI officials after learning that those specific employees were likely to be witnesses against him as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, according to two people directly familiar with the matter.

In testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee on June 8, recently fired FBI Director James Comey disclosed that he spoke contemporaneously with other senior bureau officials about potentially improper efforts by the president to curtail the FBI’s investigation of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Mueller is investigating whether Trump’s efforts constituted obstruction of justice.

Not long after Comey’s Senate testimony, Trump hired John Dowd, a veteran criminal defense attorney, to represent him in matters related to Mueller’s investigation. Dowd warned Trump that the potential corroborative testimony of the senior FBI officials in Comey’s account would likely play a central role in the special counsel’s final conclusion, according to people familiar with the matter.

In discussions with at least two senior White House officials, Trump repeated what Dowd had told him to emphasize why he and his supporters had to “fight back harder,” in the words of one of these officials. [...]

The FBI officials Trump has targeted are Andrew McCabe, the current deputy FBI director and who was briefly acting FBI director after Comey’s firing; Jim Rybicki, Comey’s chief of staff and senior counselor; and James Baker, formerly the FBI’s general counsel. Those same three officials were first identified as possible corroborating witnesses for Comey in a June 7 article in Vox. Comey confirmed in congressional testimony the following day that he confided in the three men.
posted by chris24 at 9:49 PM on March 16, 2018 [25 favorites]


Asha Rangappa:
THREAD. Some thoughts on McCabe's firing, and separating the merits from the circumstances:

2. On the merits: We will have to see the OIG report first, but it's worth noting that a) something that went through both OPR (within the FBI) and the OIG involves multiple layers/people and b) "lack of candor" is something that is taken *very* seriously in the FBI

3. For example, if you tell your Supervisor you have a source meeting and cut out early -- but you instead go home and pick your kids up from school, that's T&A (Time and Attendance) fraud. Punishable. But if you lie about it when asked, it's "lack of candor," and fireable.

4. Why? Because the credibility of agents is the bread and butter of what they do. They go on the stand. Or in front of Congress. Having it in your record that you lied can make you an unusable witness. It means you literally cannot perform your duties. So there are good reasons.

5. So whether McCabe's firing was justified comes down to what investigators found and whether it went to his integrity as an agent. The fact that he was close to retirement doesn't give him a pass under the FBI's standards. The merits part can be contested/appealed by McCabe.

6. The bigger issue, and I think the one most people find problematic, are the circumstances. Here, the employee in question is one about whom the President of the United States has been publicly tweeting (multiple times), advocating for his firing, and to lose his pension.

7. Further, said employee is a key witness in an active investigation against the President himself. The "corrupt intent" for obstruction is *most* probative by the accounts given by Comey, regarding his meetings with POTUS, including "loyalty oath," letting Flynn go, etc.

8. Comey told a few people at the time about those convos -- including McCabe. McCabe can corroborate those accounts, strengthening the case for obstruction. POTUS therefore has a reason to want to discredit him.

9. On top of that, the decisionmaker in McCabe's firing decision was AG Sessions. Who was a part of Trump's campaign and an outspoken critic of the FBI's investigation into HRC...which McCabe oversaw.

10. And Sessions himself has been cyberbullied by POTUS for having recused himself from the Russia investigation, making it clear that his OWN job is on the line if he does not do what POTUS wants. (And potentially leaving him in a similar precarious situation if he recused here)

11. I think the McCabe firing, had it been done by Rosenstein, or Boente, would have had much more credibility and be less controversial. (And I suspect it would have been done, if at all, less publicly and with more care for allowing the OIG report to come out first.)

12. So the bottom line is that POTUS involving himself in this has poisoned the well all around, making the FBI's internal process and the OIG look political, and Sessions as a lackey. This is ultimately bad for the FBI and DOJ -- and the country -- generally.

13. The big thing to remember is that this is the *same* OIG that will decide Strozk/Page's fate, and possibly on the legitimacy of the Carter Page FISA. For those who are championing McCabe's firing, they better not cry foul if those decisions don't come out the way they hoped.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:00 PM on March 16, 2018 [49 favorites]


World News: Chinese president Xi Jinping re-appointed with no term limits
Xi, 64, is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong and last Sunday was given the right to continue in office indefinitely after the legislature scrapped term limits for the president and vice-president.
posted by porpoise at 10:01 PM on March 16, 2018 [7 favorites]


With the House out of the monitoring Trump game for now, and the Senate seemingly on pause, but still extant, it's only Mueller to apply the pressure, now joined by victims of the President’s gluttony, ever growing. From here in the rafters, it appears the only thing protecting the Republic from Trump is the threat of public opinion turning against him, particularly the view of the elites that still hold some sway, and others who don’t, but who still can marshall resources to continue to fight and delay to the next election. So precarious!

The more lawsuits people can bring, the better.

Also. Vote.
posted by notyou at 10:10 PM on March 16, 2018 [6 favorites]


Pompeo can either be the acting SecState or the nominee to replace Tillerson permanently. Not both.

Can Pruitt be the acting Attorney General (but not the new appointee) just long enough to fire Rod Rosenstein, while still keeping his old job at EPA? In other words, can he hold two cabinet positions at the same time, if one is acting? What if he takes a temporary leave from EPA, can he go back after he stops acting?
posted by msalt at 10:18 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


It's worth stepping back and really taking a moment to appreciate how fucking crazy it is that the President of the United States is gloating in public about firing inconvenient FBI officials in the middle of a Friday night.
posted by theodolite at 10:20 PM on March 16, 2018 [124 favorites]


Do FBI cases go through the MSPB? Two of the 3 board members are nominated (and I don't think confirmed yet) by Trump.
posted by ctmf at 10:21 PM on March 16, 2018


The Merit System Protection Board has no quorum right now, and Trump is unlikely to appoint anyone to it. So McCabe isn't going to get any help that way.
posted by suelac at 10:23 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


Right, and it blocks a lawsuit until it goes through the MSPB process, no?
posted by ctmf at 10:26 PM on March 16, 2018


Dumbass appointed the second board member just a week ago. (Coincidence?). So they do have a quorum to act now.

BUT, they have an enormous backlog following a historically long stretch without a quorum, and it’s a Dumbass appointment, so who knows whether McCabe could expect relief there even if he deserves it.

He’s got a better chance angling for a million-dollar book deal at this point.
posted by darkstar at 10:31 PM on March 16, 2018 [3 favorites]


How many lawsuits total are against Trump in one form or another?
posted by gucci mane at 10:36 PM on March 16, 2018 [2 favorites]


Pompeo can either be the acting SecState or the nominee to replace Tillerson permanently. Not both.

Can Pruitt be the acting Attorney General (but not the new appointee) just long enough to fire Rod Rosenstein, while still keeping his old job at EPA? In other words, can he hold two cabinet positions at the same time, if one is acting? What if he takes a temporary leave from EPA, can he go back after he stops actin


Cite a statute or case, or realize that these are norms without force of law.

A formulation that is getting increasingly disturbing by its widespread application to each day's fresh horrors.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:10 PM on March 16, 2018 [5 favorites]


According to the NYT's Matt Appuzzo as well as Matthew Miller and some other commentators, one of the suspicious elements of McCabe's firing is that the FBI disciplinary process never works as "lightning fast" as it did here. They do say that the players in the OIG are straight arrows and the "lack of candor" charge may have merit, but the fact that this was carried out at a manic pace suggests that someone (Sessions?) was pushing things along specifically so the recommendation would be delivered to Sessions before McCabe's retirement. If the process happened at its normal rate, he would have been long gone before its conclusion.

Of course, I'm sure Jeff "I'm shocked at this lack of candor" Sessions will claim that he made the decision to act on that recommendation totally independently, but come on.

My favorite part of McCabe's statement is the ending, where he notes that "to have my career end in this way . . . is incredibly disappointing and unfair. But it will not erase the important work I was privileged to be a part of, the results of which will in the end be revealed for the country to see."
posted by FelliniBlank at 11:22 PM on March 16, 2018 [76 favorites]


This Twitter thread from a few months ago, going through emails from a FOI request, suggests that McCabe had been generally diligent about conflicts of interest. (I don't know how to unroll threads, sorry.)

It's hard to see where the lack of candor charge comes from, if this is indicative. If he recused himself from the Clinton investigation, we probably can't blame him for Comey's bullshit decision to tip the election to Trump.
posted by Merus at 11:31 PM on March 16, 2018 [1 favorite]


@ClintWatts: This IG report would need to be extremely damning to justify firing McCabe with 2 days to retirement. At a minimum, AG Sessions should make public the report and clearly note reasons for firing McCabe, a Deputy Director FBI

@Susan_Hennessey: I appreciate the caution of saying "wait for the IG report." But unless there is some utterly shocking conduct by McCabe—hard to believe on available evidence—this just isn't business as usual. The timing, the speed of investigation, the severity of punishment. It's all off... As @joshgerstein notes, this stuff usually takes forever in federal government. It's only responsible to acknowledge it's possible there is something big we don't know. But all signs here point to a foul here.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 11:35 PM on March 16, 2018 [28 favorites]


@emptywheel: "So @profcarroll challenged Facebook (for not protecting his data under EU law). It moved forward today. And now Facebook cut off Cambridge Analytica."

So Facebook acknowledging that it has no real way to enforce its platform policies around data sharing seems like a big deal, as does the implicit acknowledgment that a major foundation of Trump's digital operation was based on violations of Facebook policy. And dropping the story at 9pm on a Friday night is a very clear effort to bury it.

Even in a case as blatant as this with so much public scrutiny, it took years and a lawsuit to understand where data was being sold contrary to policy and that "oh yeah, we totally deleted that valuable data" isn't actually a meaningful guarantee. That seems like really good reason to believe this is happening an awful lot in cases we'll never know about.
posted by zachlipton at 11:43 PM on March 16, 2018 [59 favorites]


On top of all the holy-shittery this McCabe retirement business raises in itself, I feel like the fallout from the message it sends to everybody else is going to be interesting. In case anybody had any doubt about how little Trump cares about their personal well-being, and how far he'll go to prove it, he just fired a guy two days away from retiring. I'm guessing civil servants don't appreciate being bullied by an incompetent tyrant for political reasons, and people outside government who have dirt on Trump may decide this tips the scale in favor of airing it. For the average member of the public (who are paying attention, anyhow), the gut-punch of such a dick move is sure to arouse sympathy for the guy, and any subsequent firing of Mueller may energize more politically engaged people to fight back harder.
posted by Rykey at 11:56 PM on March 16, 2018 [16 favorites]


Just watched the Chris Hayes interview with Felix Sater (I think this is it, probably geo-locked but it will presumably show up on yt shortly) and it's hilarious, between Sater's earnest innocent poker face while trying to imply that he was just a reformed honest business man successfully doing business in the Russian Federation in the 90s, his protestations about Trump's noble character and patriotic honor, and Hayes's dogged refusal to accept any evasive or ambiguous answers to questions.
posted by XMLicious at 12:50 AM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Chuck Schumer's war on black people and the poor
The new Democratic leader is providing crucial assistance to Republicans and President Trump to get a sweeping rollback of Dodd-Frank pushed through Congress. It is political and policy malpractice — and amounts to announcing open season on African-Americans and the poor, so that his state's marquee industry can bleed them for profit.
...
As I have previously argued, this deregulation is profoundly racist both in general and in its specifics. Deregulated banks cause economic crises that hit black Americans by far the worst — for example, during the foreclosure crisis the percentage of black households underwater on their mortgage spiked over 20-fold, while over the same period the corresponding white figure increased "only" 6-fold. Meanwhile, if they aren't carefully prevented from doing so, Wall Street preys on black people. That's a constant in American history going back to before the revolution.
...
Now, Schumer himself did not vote for the bill. But make no mistake, he was the key to its passage. Party leadership has a considerable power in the Senate, both direct and indirect. He could have twisted arms and kept this thing off the floor as Reid did — but instead, as The New York Times reports, "he has given conservative-state Democrats leeway to vote as they see fit and has urged progressives in the party to tread lightly when criticizing moderates."
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:31 AM on March 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


Now, Schumer himself did not vote for the bill. But make no mistake, he was the key to its passage. Party leadership has a considerable power in the Senate,

I'm a big fan of party unity, and while I don't believe this is owned by Schumer, the fact that so many traitors to the party, who shouldn't need reminding, broke ranks says more about the traitors, than Schumer.

After all, we don't want to reduce the Democrats in Congress to RICO tactics, despite what the Republicans do, do we?

SEE ALSO: ST: DISCO S01
posted by mikelieman at 4:42 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]




Ex CIA director John O. Brennan is not mincing words today.

When the full extent of your venality, moral turpitude, and political corruption becomes known, you will take your rightful place as a disgraced demagogue in the dustbin of history. You may scapegoat Andy McCabe, but you will not destroy America...America will triumph over you.
posted by Devonian at 5:15 AM on March 17, 2018 [116 favorites]


“do what you gotta do,” per @Sen_JoeManchin

If they're not going to listen to Professor Warren, then they're not acting rationally, and in good faith. What they need to do is replace Manchin, etc...
posted by mikelieman at 5:16 AM on March 17, 2018


"Damn You NPR" Filter: Just listened to Scott Simon do a puff-piece fangirl interview with a former Mike Pompeo staffer about what kind of Secretary of State he'd be. And not once did Simon bring up any of Simon's more questionable views, like how he opposed the closing of Guantanamo and how he wanted to use drones in North Korea.

....Turns out Scott Simon tweeted out "hey, check out my interview" to his listeners only a few minutes before. I let him know what I thought, if anyone heard that same interview and wants to join in....
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:36 AM on March 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


The people of Indiana had a literal tug of war with Wall Street for Senator Joe Donnelly's soul over the banking bill. I guess we see who won.
posted by Rykey at 5:41 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Well done Republicans.

Percentage of Germans (very) worried by the policies of:

Donald Trump: 82%
Vladimir Putin: 53%
posted by chris24 at 5:45 AM on March 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


Donald Trump: 82%
Vladimir Putin: 53%


Was there no "¿Porqué no los dos?" option?
posted by adamgreenfield at 5:47 AM on March 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


@tedlieu
I interviewed Andrew McCabe during a closed door Judiciary Committee Hearing. You should read his statement below. I believe him.

But even if you disagree, the punishment he is receiving is far out of proportion to his 21 years of service. McCabe will win his appeal.

Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe's statement on his firing
posted by chris24 at 6:05 AM on March 17, 2018 [28 favorites]


what i'm wondering is if there really are several women with ndas and some of them decide to violate them and reveal what they did with trump, what happens if melania decides she's had enough and DTMFA? can he be served with divorce papers while he's president?

this has the potential to make the watergate scandal really look like a third-rate burglary - what a massive, awful thing this is turning out to be
posted by pyramid termite at 6:16 AM on March 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Breaking on the Facebook-Cambridge story.

Guardian: Revealed: 50 million Facebook profiles harvested for Cambridge Analytica in major data breach
The data analytics firm that worked with Donald Trump’s election team and the winning Brexit campaign harvested millions of Facebook profiles of US voters, in the tech giant’s biggest ever data breach, and used them to build a powerful software program to predict and influence choices at the ballot box.

A whistleblower has revealed to the Observer how Cambridge Analytica – a company owned by the hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, and headed at the time by Trump’s key adviser Steve Bannon – used personal information taken without authorisation in early 2014 to build a system that could profile individual US voters, in order to target them with personalised political advertisements.

Christopher Wylie, who worked with an academic at Cambridge University to obtain the data, told the Observer: “We exploited Facebook to harvest millions of people’s profiles. And built models to exploit what we knew about them and target their inner demons. That was the basis that the entire company was built on.”

Documents seen by the Observer, and confirmed by a Facebook statement, show that by late 2015 the company had found out that information had been harvested on an unprecedented scale. However, at the time it failed to alert users and took only limited steps to recover and secure the private information of more than 50 million individuals.
posted by chris24 at 6:18 AM on March 17, 2018 [84 favorites]


what happens if melania decides she's had enough and DTMFA?

She’s played the long game so far, I don’t see her splitting unless there’s a threat of jail time or the money goes away.
posted by Artw at 6:21 AM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


can he be served with divorce papers while he's president?

Served, yes. The actual divorce proceedings could get weird considering Trump is not supposed to have personal knowledge of his assets under management (ha!). But I agree with Artw, it's vanishingly unlikely.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:24 AM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Donald Trump: 82%
Vladimir Putin: 53%

Was there no "¿Porqué no los dos?" option?


As 82%+53%=135%, I think there was.
posted by box at 6:27 AM on March 17, 2018 [14 favorites]


And from the writer of the Guardian FB-CA piece. FB really didn't want this out there.

@carolecadwalla
Yesterday @facebook threatened to sue us. Today we publish this.
Meet the whistleblower blowing the lid off Facebook & Cambridge Analytica. LINK
posted by chris24 at 6:27 AM on March 17, 2018 [42 favorites]


And now the Times has the story as well.

NYT: How Trump Consultants Exploited the Facebook Data of Millions
As the upstart voter-profiling company Cambridge Analytica prepared to wade into the 2014 American midterm elections, it had a problem. The firm had secured a $15 million investment from Robert Mercer, the wealthy Republican donor, and wooed his political adviser, Stephen K. Bannon, with the promise of tools that could identify the personalities of American voters and influence their behavior. But it did not have the data to make its new products work.

So the firm harvested private information from the Facebook profiles of more than 50 million users without their permission, according to former Cambridge employees, associates and documents, making it one of the largest data leaks in the social network’s history. The breach allowed the company to exploit the private social media activity of a huge swath of the American electorate, developing techniques that underpinned its work on President Trump’s campaign in 2016.

An examination by The New York Times and The Observer of London reveals how Cambridge Analytica’s drive to bring to market a potentially powerful new weapon put the firm — and wealthy conservative investors seeking to reshape politics — under scrutiny from investigators and lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic.

Christopher Wylie, who helped found Cambridge and worked there until late 2014, said of its leaders: “Rules don’t matter for them. For them, this is a war, and it’s all fair. They want to fight a culture war in America,” he added. “Cambridge Analytica was supposed to be the arsenal of weapons to fight that culture war.”
posted by chris24 at 6:32 AM on March 17, 2018 [55 favorites]


I would be extraordinarily interested in knowing whether that data pool of Facebook users had significant populations in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
posted by Room 101 at 6:44 AM on March 17, 2018 [26 favorites]


Hey, remember Facebook promoting how much help they gave the Trump campaign? While they knew their entire network had been raided by the same campaign?
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:45 AM on March 17, 2018 [27 favorites]


The congressional investigations of Facebook if Ds win a house are going to be lit.

RIP Zuckerberg 2020.
posted by chris24 at 6:46 AM on March 17, 2018 [69 favorites]


Does anyone know if there's an up-to-date list of suspected Russian assassinations? I know last year Buzzfeed did a list of possible Russian hits that have taken place in the UK.

British Insider UK has such a list, and the Independent has an article, though some in it are people who have keeled over under odd circumstances outside the UK.

There's also a bit of discussion around this on the current UKpolitics thread on the blue.
posted by Wordshore at 6:50 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


The congressional investigations of Facebook if Ds win a house are going to be lit.

I guess we're not going to get into the weeds (at least here), but the details in this story suggest the possibility of more than just a regulatory or even criminal response. There are state privacy laws to consider, as well as the fact that Facebook is a publicly owned company and owes duties to its stockholders.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:51 AM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Rep Eric Swalwell on Twitter, RTing Trump:

Gloat now, but you will be fired soon. And it's not going to be done cowardly, as you've done to so many who've served you. There's a storm gathering, Mr. President, and it's going to wipe out you and your corrupt organization all the way down to the studs.
posted by hexaflexagon at 6:53 AM on March 17, 2018 [58 favorites]


She’s played the long game so far, I don’t see her splitting unless there’s a threat of jail time or the money goes away.

I don't think she's playing any game. If things go south there's also the whole sicking the federal government on her citizenship. It's almost certain that she entered the United States initially to work illegally and Trump knows this. The DOJ has proven it will remove citizenship from those who have fraud in their background. With the right prodding, the DOJ could be persuaded to denaturalize her, take her into custody, and deport her back to Slovakia away from her child. Her parents would also follow her back as their green cards would be in jeopardy and probably be revoked.

I mean this is the US President we're talking about here and a legislative branch that is unwilling to restrain him or punish him for his egregious actions. It's far more likely that she's a prisoner in a gilded cage.
posted by Talez at 6:57 AM on March 17, 2018 [21 favorites]


NYT: How Trump Consultants Exploited the Facebook Data of Millions

I’ll give them this, the data scraping in this story does not appear to be of Russian origin, looks like they went out and spywared a bunch of suckers on Mechanical Turk all for themselves.
posted by Artw at 7:00 AM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Served, yes. The actual divorce proceedings could get weird considering Trump is not supposed to have personal knowledge of his assets under management (ha!). But I agree with Artw, it's vanishingly unlikely.

Counterpoint: 2017/2018... There is no "Normal" anymore.
posted by mikelieman at 7:01 AM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Regarding voter manipulation in swing states by use of Cambridge data:

CBS Story from Feb. 2016 -- Ted Cruz's data app helps campaign target voters
Protecting the privacy of law-abiding citizens from the government is a pillar of Ted Cruz's Republican presidential candidacy, but his campaign is testing the limits of siphoning personal data from supporters.

His "Cruz Crew" mobile app is designed to gather detailed information from its users' phones -- tracking their physical movements and mining the names and contact information for friends who might want nothing to do with his campaign.

That information and more is then fed into a vast database containing details about nearly every adult in the United States to build psychological profiles that target individual voters with uncanny accuracy...

The son of mathematicians and data processing programmers, Cruz is keenly and personally interested in the work. "Analytics gives the campaign a roadmap for everything we do," said Chris Wilson, data and digital director. "He has an acute understanding of our work and continually pushes me on it."
...
The Associated Press found the Cruz campaign's app -- downloaded to more than 61,000 devices so far -- goes furthest to glean personal data.

The Cruz app prompts supporters to register using their Facebook logins, giving the campaign access to personal information such as name, age range, gender, location and photograph, plus lists of friends and relatives. Those without a Facebook account must either provide an email address or phone number to use the app.
...
It also shares the material with analytics companies. Cruz's campaign combines the information with data from a group called Cambridge Analytica, which has been involved in his efforts since fall 2014. A Cambridge investor, Robert Mercer, has given more money than anyone else to outside groups supporting Cruz.
As the story points out, many campaigns had their own apps. They should all get a hard look.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:01 AM on March 17, 2018 [54 favorites]


I guess we're not going to get into the weeds (at least here), but the details in this story suggest the possibility of more than just a regulatory or even criminal response. There are state privacy laws to consider, as well as the fact that Facebook is a publicly owned company and owes duties to its stockholders.

Don’t stop there, keep talking
posted by schadenfrau at 7:05 AM on March 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


This is one of the things that will only be clear in retrospect. But consider that if the hypothesis that Cambridge Analytics, Russian State Actors, and people in the United States WERE sharing voter data via the Trump Tower -> Spectrum Health -> Alfa Bank server communication, that's now in the scope of Mueller's investigation, and WILL be fully investigated.
posted by mikelieman at 7:10 AM on March 17, 2018 [28 favorites]


The congressional investigations of Facebook if Ds win a house are going to be lit.

Too big to fail. Just watch.
posted by middleclasstool at 7:11 AM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


And now of course they're going for the whole enchilada.

Trump’s Lawyer: It’s Time to End the Mueller Probe
President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, John Dowd, told The Daily Beast on Saturday morning that he hopes Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein will shut down the Mueller probe.

Reached for comment by email about the firing of former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe, sent The Daily Beast the text of Trump’s most recent tweet on the subject, which applauded the firing. Then he wrote that Rosenstein should follow Sessions' lead.

“I pray that Acting Attorney General Rosenstein will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia Collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt Dossier,” Dowd then wrote.

He told The Daily Beast he was speaking on behalf of the president, in his capacity as the president’s attorney.
posted by chris24 at 7:16 AM on March 17, 2018 [44 favorites]


If they're willing to try to pull the plug with this week's ink barely dry then they don't think they can withstand whatever's coming next.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:19 AM on March 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


That's the president, demanding that the Department of Justice terminate an ongoing investigation into the subversion of a presidential election, financial crimes, obstruction of justice and more, and making this demand through his personal attorney.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:20 AM on March 17, 2018 [105 favorites]


This is all like finding out Pearl Harbor happened, one detail at a time, 2 years after the act.
posted by klarck at 7:24 AM on March 17, 2018 [50 favorites]


The congressional investigations of Facebook if Ds win a house are going to be lit.

Too big to fail. Just watch.


Yeah Facebook is a massive, publicly traded company on the S&P 500 with a market cap more than half of Exxon; there's no way they get more than a monetary slap on the wrist even for blatant well-understood crimes, let alone something you'd have trouble explaining to your parents.
posted by aspersioncast at 7:24 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Too big to fail. Just watch.

Oh the glorious day should social networks become federated instead of lock in.
posted by Talez at 7:26 AM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Trump’s Lawyer: It’s Time to End the Mueller Probe

I'm seeing some "red alerts" on twitter. Am I supposed to take to the streets on red alert? Or am I being put on alert to get ready to take to the streets? This sucks!!! I don't want to be pondering when it's time to take to the streets!
posted by diogenes at 7:30 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


This is the equivalent of Trump emailing the DC DMV with a vanity plate request for: OBSTRCTR
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:32 AM on March 17, 2018 [18 favorites]


Too big to fail. Just watch.

Consider the tobacco lawsuits. The bigger they come...
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:33 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


If Trump wants the Russia probe to end he should stop committing crimes.
posted by Talez at 7:35 AM on March 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


The apparent lack of controls that Facebook has on its data is breathtaking. An academic was asked to pinky swear that he wouldn't use it for naughtiness, was given full access, and then downloaded their entire social graph. He was then asked to pinky swear that he had destroyed the data and he promptly sent it all to to Cam. Anal. via a "plausible deniability" route.

Facebook gave its family jewels and its customer's privacy to any researcher with bad intent. That is just amazingly reckless. Someone with that data could basically recreate 25% of Facebook, and become the only real competitor that they have, with the cost of a front end app and some servers.
posted by pdoege at 7:36 AM on March 17, 2018 [40 favorites]


This is the equivalent of Trump emailing the DC DMV with a vanity plate request for: OBSTRCTR

And Dowd seems to have released this and is now backtracking, changing to say he was speaking in a personal capacity and saying Mueller shouldn't be technically "fired", just that the investigation should end based on the merits. "Not fire. Just end it on the merits in light of recent revelations."
posted by chris24 at 7:37 AM on March 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Someone with that data could basically recreate 25% of Facebook, and become the only real competitor that they have, with the cost of a front end app and some servers.

That's precisely what Cambridge Analytica did, at least as far as commercial campaigning data sources are concerned.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:39 AM on March 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Hahaha, Dowd was literally emailing Betsy Woodruff of the Daily Beast while she was live with Joy Reid on MSNBC trying to massage his quotes.

The. Best. People.
posted by chris24 at 7:41 AM on March 17, 2018 [27 favorites]


Specific details from the Guardian piece on Facebook and Cambridge Analytica:
The data was collected through an app called thisisyourdigitallife, built by academic Aleksandr Kogan, separately from his work at Cambridge University. Through his company Global Science Research (GSR), in collaboration with Cambridge Analytica, hundreds of thousands of users were paid to take a personality test and agreed to have their data collected for academic use.

However, the app also collected the information of the test-takers’ Facebook friends, leading to the accumulation of a data pool tens of millions-strong. Facebook’s “platform policy” allowed only collection of friends data to improve user experience in the app and barred it being sold on or used for advertising.

[...]

Kogan, who has previously unreported links to a Russian university and took Russian grants for research, had a licence from Facebook to collect profile information, but it was for research purposes only.

So when he hoovered up information for the commercial venture, he was violating the company’s terms. Kogan maintains everything he did was legal, and says he had a “close working relationship” with Facebook, which had granted him permission for his apps.
posted by XMLicious at 7:42 AM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


I am getting some deja-vu from this Cambridge Analytica stuff. I thought we heard about these guys and their Facebook raiding years ago? The article posted by snuffleupagus mentions them, I could've sworn there already was discussion of how they were exploiting social media data for their own purposes. Is the difference with these articles that there's confirmation they scraped private information from profiles, rather than just what's publicly available?
posted by Anonymous at 7:45 AM on March 17, 2018


Kogan, who has previously unreported links to a Russian university and took Russian grants for research, had a licence from Facebook to collect profile information, but it was for research purposes only.

Oh.

Oh well, probably just coincidence.
posted by Artw at 7:52 AM on March 17, 2018 [43 favorites]


chris24
“I pray that Acting Attorney General Rosenstein will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia Collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt Dossier,” Dowd then wrote.

He told The Daily Beast he was speaking on behalf of the president, in his capacity as the president’s attorney.
Can any lawyers tell us speaking on behalf of your client requires adopting their Style of capitalization?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:55 AM on March 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


And Dowd seems to have released this and is now backtracking...

Realized... Dowd seems to have realized this.
posted by chris24 at 7:55 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


The data was collected through an app called thisisyourdigitallife

Point being, among others: for the love of all that is holy, stop taking those stoopid What's Your Porn Star Name? and Which Star Wars Character Are You? quizzes.
posted by adamgreenfield at 7:59 AM on March 17, 2018 [74 favorites]


I'm seeing some "red alerts" on twitter.

Mueller probe is now at DEFCON 2 ("FAST PACE", which, incidentally, nicely describes the rate of news and the pace of this thread in the past 24 hours)

As a reminder, from Mother Jones, If You Want to Understand Trump, Understand This: Revenge Is What He Cares About Most. For instance, this is his warped idea of business advice: "'Always get even. When you are in business, you need to get even with people who screw you.' – Think Big"
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:03 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


You'll remember Dowd from his previous appearance in Season 1 where he claimed he wrote Trump's earlier tweet obstructing justice.

@realDonaldTrump
I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies. It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!
posted by chris24 at 8:04 AM on March 17, 2018 [10 favorites]




stop taking those stoopid What's Your Porn Star Name? and Which Star Wars Character Are You? quizzes.

The "we can predict your education/income from your consumer tastes!" links turning up as 'sponsored content' lately are particularly gross AND obvious. I mean, they're using the engine to provide the gimmick that gets people to submit their data to the engine.

But package an invasion of privacy that people wouldn't tolerate normally as a Fun Game and people will voluntarily provide valuable marketing and demographic data, as well as unthinkingly clicking through the screen that permits profile harvesting. And then they'll validate the data/train the engine for you, as long as they can do it via reaction emoticon. And recruit their friends!
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:08 AM on March 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


I am getting some deja-vu from this Cambridge Analytica stuff. I thought we heard about these guys and their Facebook raiding years ago?

Most of it we knew, but what seems new is that SCL/Cambridge Analytica promised back in 2016 that they destroyed data they were using in violation of Facebook's terms (they have always tried to restrict the sharing of graph data, since their whole business model is based around controlling that data themselves, but there's never really been an enforcement mechanism), and now a whistleblower is showing the NYT and Observer that was a lie. Nix also told Parliament, "we do not work with Facebook data and we do not have Facebook data," and the veracity of that seems to be significantly at various with the facts as we now know them.

Facebook's policy is that you're supposed to only slurp data as it relates to stuff that you can use in your app. For instance, Spotify might grab your friends list and all the bands you and your friends have liked so you can follow your friends and get recommendations. But they aren't supposed to sell that to a data broker (Facebook wants to be that data broker). Telling everyone "hey, please don't share this valuable data" isn't really an effective strategy. And Facebook doesn't seem to have done a whole lot in response to this situation. As I understand it, their view is pretty much that the whole system worked as intended, but for the use of the data beyond the personality profile app. Which is true—spitting out this data is the entire point of the Facebook API—, but the fact that anything your friends can see is also available to any random app they're foolish enough to authorize is part of the problem.

I, as always, remain skeptical that Cambridge Analytica wasn't mainly peddling snake oil with these psychographic profiles, but what we'd really need to understand their effect is the same kind of transparency for online political advertising that is required for broadcast, and it's maddening that isn't mandated. Every online political ad should be disclosed, including information about how it was targeted and who paid for it.
posted by zachlipton at 8:09 AM on March 17, 2018 [42 favorites]


aspersioncast: Yeah Facebook is a massive, publicly traded company on the S&P 500 with a market cap more than half of Exxon; there's no way they get more than a monetary slap on the wrist even for blatant well-understood crimes, let alone something you'd have trouble explaining to your parents.

More than that, I think an insurmountable obstacle is that it's just accepted as normal that any company a consumer does business with, any web site they visit, and any device they buy–it's accepted that those things allow the manufacturer of the device or the service provider to establish a beachhead in the consumer's life and conduct surveillance and amass information. And every other organization and company and political party leans heavily on the data sets compiled in this way to make their money and pursue their agendas.

Any serious and comprehensive response to these events would require a reckoning with that state of affairs; and none of those interests are going to give up the advantages they gain from everyone's lives being pried open and made vulnerable, so they won't very well be able to hold Facebook accountable for something they're unwilling to stop availing themselves of.
posted by XMLicious at 8:10 AM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Is the difference with these articles that there's confirmation they scraped private information from profiles, rather than just what's publicly available?

Yes, we now know they stole the data. And illegally employed foreigners in a US election.
But in July 2014, an American election lawyer advising the company, Laurence Levy, warned that the arrangement could violate laws limiting the involvement of foreign nationals in American elections.

In a memo to Mr. Bannon, Ms. Mercer and Mr. Nix, the lawyer, then at the firm Bracewell & Giuliani, warned that Mr. Nix would have to recuse himself “from substantive management” of any clients involved in United States elections. The data firm would also have to find American citizens or green card holders, Mr. Levy wrote, “to manage the work and decision making functions, relative to campaign messaging and expenditures.”

In summer and fall 2014, Cambridge Analytica dived into the American midterm elections, mobilizing SCL contractors and employees around the country. Few Americans were involved in the work, which included polling, focus groups and message development for the John Bolton Super PAC, conservative groups in Colorado and the campaign of Senator Thom Tillis, the North Carolina Republican.
And perhaps more importantly in this story, Facebook knew it for two years and did nothing. In fact, continued to help the Trump campaign an then have lied and covered it up since.
posted by chris24 at 8:10 AM on March 17, 2018 [49 favorites]


There were a dozen other choices for the Republican nominee. Every Trump voter needs to be reminded of this. Constantly.
posted by Cyrano at 8:11 AM on March 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


The book deal he's going to get will make up for a lot of pension.

Nope. Every book published by someone formerly holding a clearance has to go through review, and his would never make it. We will likely not know the full details of everything that has happened for a full fifty years at least.
posted by corb at 8:16 AM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


As per that CBS data gathering-share-with-CA news story, it doesn't seem like it would have necessarily mattered who the nominee was. A Bannon/Mercer/Nix fix was in from 2014.
Bannon for the culture war effect, Mercer for usual old rich white man crazy stuff, and Nix cuz he's power mad to prove he could do it.
posted by rc3spencer at 8:16 AM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


Savannah drops sign ban in Pence Savannah St. Patrick’s Day security zone, in which Savannah gives up after being sued for trying to ban signs in the vicinity of Mike Pence. The city claims it was a "miscommunication" with the feds.

AP also reports on how Pence is ruining St. Patrick's Day, Savannah ‘worried about the fun’ as Pence comes to St. Pat’s thanks to a 12-block "enhanced security zone" where coolers and outside drinks and chairs are banned.
posted by zachlipton at 8:20 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


@jaketapper
Since Friday 5 pm:
*POTUS sued a porn star for $20M;
*DOJ fired embattled former deputy FBI director McCabe hours before retirement, as POTUS wanted;
* we learned the Trump campaign's data firm, Cambridge Analytica, had unauthorized access to 50 million people's Facebook data.

All three of these stories are of potential consequence.

1) POTUS suing @StormyDaniels means he is now acknowledging he was party to the non-disclosure agreement. Her attorney @MichaelAvenatti was daring POTUS to sue them and amazingly he took the bait. Discovery awaits.

2) Regardless of the merits of what the FBI disciplinary officials recommended regarding McCabe, he is now quite likely in a quite different position and frame of mind than he would have been. And he’s a witness for Mueller.

3) Trump campaign’s data firm Cambridge Analytica using, in an unauthorized way, the data of 50 million Facebook users, might have more repercussions for Facebook and its fight against regulation than it will against the Trump campaign. But as with all of these cases who knows?
posted by chris24 at 8:20 AM on March 17, 2018 [67 favorites]


Yes, we now know they stole the data

And it seems possible/likely that it was then used to facilitate other potentially actionable or illegal activities, in some scenarios making those activities illicit because of its use. For instance, the provenance of the data might make its use by apps like Cruz's a big problem. Who knew what? Cruz's data guy said Ted was breathing down his neck about their op. Lit hearings indeed, if the Dems can get Congress back.

There are also some problems for the executives on the corporate side (from the Guardian article):
Last month both Facebook and the CEO of Cambridge Analytica, Alexander Nix, told a parliamentary inquiry on fake news that the company did not have or use private Facebook data... Milner, Facebook’s UK policy director, when asked if Cambridge Analytica had Facebook data, told MPs: “They may have lots of data but it will not be Facebook user data. It may be data about people who are on Facebook that they have gathered themselves, but it is not data that we have provided.”...Nix told the same MPs: “We do not work with Facebook data and we do not have Facebook data.”

But the whistleblower's dossier appears to contradict those assertions and has been passed onto authorities. The article says "it includes emails, invoices, contracts and bank transfers that reveal more than 50 million profiles – mostly belonging to registered US voters – were harvested from the site in the largest ever breach of Facebook data." As ever, those bank transfers should be interesting.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:22 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Every book published by someone formerly holding a clearance has to go through review, and his would never make it.

James Comey's memoir, A Higher Loyalty: Truth, Lies, and Leadership, seems to have passed muster without too much delay and will be published in a month's time.

Incidentally, his book tour should prove fascinating. Axios Exclusive: Comey to Come Out Hot on Book Tour, Correct Lies
Comey has been quiet for nearly a year — fired by President Trump on May 9, precipitating the appointment of special counsel Bob Mueller eight days later. He has heard a lot of lies and misstatements about the FBI that he intends to correct. He didn’t want to be in this position, but is embracing it.

• There'll be more announcements about his book tour soon, but he’s eager to go to where his critics are and take them on.
• He has seen three presidents up close (George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump), and will compare and contrast the first two he served to the third.
• As you can guess, what he says is going to rattle a lot of china.
And last month, when he was finishing recording the audiobook version, he tweeted, "Lordy, this time there will be a tape."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:28 AM on March 17, 2018 [32 favorites]


National Geographic's running white supremacist apologetics now. Endless portaits of various flavors of fascist scum and none from the non-white residents of the "rapidly diversifying" areas discussed. Guess being bought by Fox has consequences.

As America Changes, Some Anxious Whites Feel Left Behind: Demographic shifts rippling across the nation are fueling fears that their culture and standing are under threat.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:29 AM on March 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


"Too big to fail" should be a synonym for "time to nationalize."
posted by biogeo at 8:30 AM on March 17, 2018 [63 favorites]


WaPo, Paul Sonne and Karen DeYoung, Trump wants to get the U.S. out of Syria’s war, so he asked the Saudi king for $4 billion
In a December phone call with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, President Trump had an idea he thought could hasten a U.S. exit from Syria: Ask the king for $4 billion. By the end of the call, according to U.S. officials, the president believed he had a deal.

The White House wants money from the kingdom and other nations to help rebuild and stabilize the parts of Syria that the U.S. military and its local allies have liberated from the Islamic State. The postwar goal is to prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian partners from claiming the areas, or the Islamic State from regrouping, while U.S. forces finish mopping up the militants.
So as usual, Trump's foreign policy strategy is to shake down an ally (well, whatever Saudi Arabia is) for cash. Missing from this strategy is any, well, actual strategy:
One senior official said the SDF should cut a deal with the Syrian regime, given that Assad is ascending and there is little U.S. appetite to expand the military mission. The SDF shares Assad’s goal of ridding Syria of opposition rebels, the Islamic State and Turkish forces.

A second senior administration official, however, completely rejected the notion that Assad is winning, saying the regime is “weaker than it has ever been, certainly in this half of the civil war.”

“If we compare it to his pre-civil-war position, he controls about half or less of prewar territory, less than half of the arable land and far less than half of strategic resources like oil and gas,” the official said. Those who say otherwise, the official added, are “misunderstanding the political process.”

A third administration official expressed shock that any top U.S. official at this point would make that case. “Really?” this official asked.
posted by zachlipton at 8:31 AM on March 17, 2018 [19 favorites]



He really is, as someone up-thread put it, the stupidest stupid to ever have stupided.

I can't find it now, but someone on MeFi once put it as "The dumbest, shittiest dumbshit who ever shitted some dumb."
posted by notsnot at 8:35 AM on March 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


Could someone elaborate on what role McCabe might have played in using the FBI/the email investigation to kneecap Hillary Clinton? I've seen a few people saying that but I can't find any more information. Googling just turns up reams and reams of articles spinning it in the opposite direction (that he intervened to protect her).
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:38 AM on March 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Haberman implying the new push to fire Mueller is because Trump is pissed/worried about the Trump Org subpoenas.

@maggieNYT
Trump was livid over subpoena story from @nytmike and me two days ago. Dowd statement about Mueller, pre-walk back, comes after that angry bout
posted by chris24 at 8:39 AM on March 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


Here, notsnot. That thread still makes me laugh/cry every time.
posted by Melismata at 8:42 AM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Andrea Mitchell: One suggestion from a McCabe supporter: if a friendly member of Congress hired him for a week he could possibly qualify for pension benefits by extending his service the extra days

Rep. Mark Pocan: Andrew call me. I could use a good two-day report on the biggest crime families in Washington, D.C.
posted by Cookiebastard at 8:52 AM on March 17, 2018 [114 favorites]




I, as always, remain skeptical that Cambridge Analytica wasn't mainly peddling snake oil with these psychographic profiles, but what we'd really need to understand their effect is the same kind of transparency for online political advertising that is required for broadcast, and it's maddening that isn't mandated.

I think the key is in the microtargeting of "political" ads and fake news. Even if CA's voter profiles were off a bit, its pretty trivial to scrape who is posting anti-Hilary shit in a Michigan suburban district and then target them and 100 others in the same district for more inflammatory pro-Trump content. And that was orders of magnitude more influential than a TV buy in the same general area. And we still getting the bits and pieces of the puzzle, the likelihood that all of CA's data wasn't being fed directly to the Russian botnets seems close to zero. We're going to get those next links too.

At this point I also believe Facebook likely had direct knowledge of the entire information war backbone. Facebook data -> CA -> Russia and then right back to Facebook.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:04 AM on March 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


There were a dozen other choices for the Republican nominee. Every Trump voter needs to be reminded of this. Constantly.

Yeah, but none of the others were as clear with their bigotry, sexism, and fascism. The dogwhistles were all still there, but Trump was the only one to come out and say we should ban all Muslims from coming into the country and put together a registry for those who are already here (as, y'know, citizens, not that he or his supporters accept that).

They knew. They all knew.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:08 AM on March 17, 2018 [36 favorites]


Daily Beast: Fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe Lawyers Up. McCabe has retained Michael Bromwich, the ex-inspector general of the Justice department to represent him.

Andy McCabe is not fucking around here. All the Twitter esquires are noting Bromwich is a "top notch lawyer," i.e., the type who told Trump to go to hell when he tried to hire them.
posted by FelliniBlank at 9:09 AM on March 17, 2018 [99 favorites]


I've been avoiding the politics thread for my own mental well being for several weeks or so now, but this McCabe thing is beyond the pale. Who fires a career civil servant, to say nothing of the Deputy Director of the FBI, TWO DAYS before he retires? There'd better be hell to pay for this one.
posted by elsietheeel at 9:13 AM on March 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


“I pray that Acting Attorney General Rosenstein will follow the brilliant and courageous example of the FBI Office of Professional Responsibility and Attorney General Jeff Sessions and bring an end to alleged Russia Collusion investigation manufactured by McCabe’s boss James Comey based upon a fraudulent and corrupt Dossier,” Dowd then wrote.

You see that right there? We already know, have already known for months, that the investigation into the Trump campaign wasn't based on the dossier but on George Popadopalous being unable to keep his big mouth shut. The right continues to insist on having not only their way but their reality in contravention of the publicly known facts, and nobody in the world is safe as long as one person who makes that demand is tolerated.
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:17 AM on March 17, 2018 [26 favorites]


Andy McCabe is not fucking around here. All the Twitter esquires are noting Bromwich is a "top notch lawyer," i.e., the type who told Trump to go to hell when he tried to hire them.

The thing that keeps being re-enforced to me is how completely outgunned Trump is in every way. He's the President, he's the most powerful person in the world, but since he has absolutely no understanding of soft power or the benefits of basic human decency he's alienated or intentionally destroyed almost all of his allies. And he doesn't have the electoral value to let him get away with it (he's batting .000 with candidates he campaigns for). He's drawing the noose tighter around his neck with every step he takes.

...and if he thinks it's bad now, wait until after the 2018 elections. The only risk now is that he tries to take the rest of us with him; and I have to think that Mattis has had some pretty strong conversations with everybody in the military chain of command that involves the big booms. I wouldn't be surprised if there's already a letter a la Schlesinger and Nixon.

I also wonder about the long term impact on the GOP of abdicating their constitutional responsibilities in the face of a clear attack by a foreign power. FBI and CIA and DoD and Foggy Bottom have LONG institutional memories. A lot of these institutions are traditionally pretty politically conservative. But they sure as hell have no truck with traitors; and despite the official definitions, this is certainly treason to them.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:23 AM on March 17, 2018 [55 favorites]


At this point I also believe Facebook likely had direct knowledge of the entire information war backbone. Facebook data -> CA -> Russia and then right back to Facebook.

As apparently revealed in the Panama papers, Russian oligarchs connected to Putin (aren’t they all, if they’re still alive) have been major investors in Facebook since before the IPO. At one point, the Russian money is alleged to have come from the Russian state.

Zuckerberg should possibly be in prison.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:25 AM on March 17, 2018 [73 favorites]


Rep Eric Swalwell on Twitter, RTing Trump:

Gloat now, but you will be fired soon. And it's not going to be done cowardly, as you've done to so many who've served you. There's a storm gathering, Mr. President, and it's going to wipe out you and your corrupt organization all the way down to the studs.


Electing Donald Trump is like renting your house to a meth cook.
posted by Catblack at 9:28 AM on March 17, 2018 [24 favorites]


I feel like Trump is the giant rat in the kitchen that triggered the call to the exterminators. But the house has been infested for years. This is going to flush all sorts of stuff out of the woodwork.

And that's not even considering the congressional investigations that'll come after 2018.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:29 AM on March 17, 2018 [24 favorites]


Zuckerberg should possibly be in prison.

Wasn’t his very first product a morally iffy data-scraper?
posted by Artw at 9:31 AM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


Zuckerberg should possibly be in prison

In my fever dreams his private estate on Kauai (that used to be an entire country club) is seized and winds up in a native lands trust.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:32 AM on March 17, 2018 [75 favorites]


And that's not even considering the congressional investigations that'll come after 2018.

I'd really like to believe this, but I just don't see the Democrats having the spine for it. They'll have the Republicans screaming in their ears about it, and god knows they're more afraid of the disapproval of the Republicans than they are of any other entity or group in the universe.
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:39 AM on March 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


Secretive religious charity run by top US housing officials raises questions
GJH Global Ministries, which made its website private after inquiries by the Guardian, does not appear to have a clear purpose
One of the top officials in Donald Trump’s housing department runs an opaque religious charity with a colleague who resigned from the administration when the Guardian found he was accused of fraud and exaggerated his biography.

Johnson Joy, the chief information officer at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (Hud), is part of a Christian not-for-profit in Texas with Naved Jafry, who quit [] as a Hud adviser after inquiries about his professional history.

[...]

Jafry declined to discuss GJH and said: “That was a long time ago.” According to a filing to state regulators, Jafry became the registered agent for GJH in January this year. A one-bedroom apartment in Houston is listed as the group’s headquarters.

Joy did not respond to questions about his involvement, including whether he had cited his leadership of GJH when successfully applying to work at Hud.

Joy and Jafry both lived in the Houston area recently and attended Lakewood, the megachurch there run by the television preacher Joel Osteen. Joy worked as project manager on Osteen’s cellphone app before overseeing IT at Hud – a position with a $161,900 salary that entails managing dozens of people and a $46m budget.

A former business partner of Jafry, Garson Silvers, said Jafry was given his job at Hud after being recommended by Osteen’s mother, Dodie. Jafry disputed this.
posted by XMLicious at 9:49 AM on March 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


Zuckerberg should possibly be in prison

At the least, Sorkin/Fincher have a logline on that "Social Network" sequel.
posted by BigBrooklyn at 9:52 AM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


that the president of the united states, a putatively wealthy man, has to resort to shysters with inadequate impulse control like Dowd for representation is an important object lesson in the many dangers inherent in alienating the entire reputable legal profession.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:57 AM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


Huh. In November 2016 I decided to follow all my reps on Social Media where possible, and one of them does nothing but retweet Joel Osteen.
posted by maggiemaggie at 10:02 AM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]




> I have a hard time beliveing that this incompetent administration has managed to reach all the way down to the FBI's OPR/OIG after they haven't managed to get nearly anything else done

There has been a pretty clear pattern of Donny becoming more sophisticated over time in his desire to manufacture a more convincing cover story. Even if he doesn't see the necessity of doing so for any legal or moral reason, he understands the utility of having a better cover story from a public relations and media standpoint.

How they might have managed to make that happen is of course an open question at this point--and one well worth investigating. But Trump is clearly well motivated to destroy potential enemies at this point, and he and his allies are becoming more skilled in manipulating the levers of government to do so.
posted by flug at 10:02 AM on March 17, 2018


Could someone elaborate on what role McCabe might have played in using the FBI/the email investigation to kneecap Hillary Clinton? I've seen a few people saying that but I can't find any more information. Googling just turns up reams and reams of articles spinning it in the opposite direction (that he intervened to protect her).

McCabe and Comey's behavior around the email investigation--the bizarre publicity, Comey's release of that letter a week before the election--helped drill in But Her Emails as an actual thing that was important and required attention. McCabe also pushed forward on investigation into The Clinton Foundation directly before the election. The Comey Letter in particular (i.e. the one released before the election) resulted in a drop in polls, a shift in undecided, and very likely helped cost her the election. Both came from the not-small-percentage of the FBI that strongly disliked her and they're perfect examples of the type of person who disliked Clinton too much to consider what life with the alternative would be like.

Now they're being targeted by the right as Shills because history is malleable and conservatives like to forget how much they (and Trump) celebrated the FBI when it was off on its wild goose chase. We were literally all existing there two years ago and watching it in real time, but sure! Let's wave our hands and pretend the actual things we experienced and read in the news never happened!
posted by Anonymous at 10:04 AM on March 17, 2018


Adrian Lamo, hacker who turned in Chelsea Manning, dies aged 37

from reading between the lines of his father’s comments, i suspect this was a suicide? but given the current zeitgeist it’s also very easy to spin this out into elaborate conspiracy theories. i hope the media leave his family alone.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:09 AM on March 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


Johnson Joy, the chief information officer at the Department of Housing and Urban Development (Hud), is part of a Christian not-for-profit in Texas

Maybe Chuck Harder and Ryan Stonerock need a third for the new firm?
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:13 AM on March 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


BREAKING: AP learns fired FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe maintained personal memos regarding President Donald Trump.

Looks like someone kept those receipts.
posted by PenDevil at 10:13 AM on March 17, 2018 [82 favorites]


No big surprise, from Paula Reid at CBS: "JUST IN: Lordy, there are memos. McCabe kept contemporaneous memos of conversations with the President & events surrounding Comey firing."

I wonder if Mueller got them last night or will get them Monday.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:13 AM on March 17, 2018 [55 favorites]


National Geographic's running white supremacist apologetics now. Guess being bought by Fox has consequences.
As I noted before, NG is part of the Fox media empire that's been sold to Disney, so whatever pressure they're getting is currently from The Mouse. But then, I consider "As America Changes, Some Anxious Whites Feel Left Behind: Demographic shifts rippling across the nation are fueling fears that their culture and standing are under threat" to be nothing but good news; White Supremacist Culture is what gave us Donald Trump and it needs to be sent to the 'dustbin of History' as soon as possible.

... the many dangers inherent in alienating the entire reputable legal profession.

This has been Trump's Method of Operation for DECADES, and it hadn't failed him yet. Of course, I must note (again) that one group of the legal profession he never alienated were corrupt prosecutors in New York and New Jersey... like Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani.

Meanwhile, Trump's turning against the highest profile of "the not-small-percentage of the FBI that strongly disliked" Hillary is going to peel off much of his support from that semi-important group. And the way his critics are lighting up Twitter, I suspect he's talking to whomever close to him is "Internet Savvy" to figure out how to use Facebook, where his TRUE friends are.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:16 AM on March 17, 2018


The FBI also manufactured a reason to "reopen" the "closed" Clinton emails investigation with Anthony Weiner's laptop, which we now know contained NO new information. Commenting publicly like that was a massive breach of procedures. They knew that at the time. If McCabe made that decision based on intent to sabotage Clinton, and it seems likely he did or was involved, he should be fired and he shouldn't get a pension.

These people are not our friends. Not McCabe, and not Comey on his fucking redemption book tour. They both VERY directly, and VERY intentionally, gave us Trump.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:16 AM on March 17, 2018 [78 favorites]


jesus, if trump ran a protection racket his enforcers would go around saying

“nice restaurant you got here, it would be a real shame if my boss, donald trump, paid me to burn it down. i mean, if it burned down! for no reason! i don’t even know my boss, donald trump, who never pays me to burn down buildings in order to intimidate people!”
posted by murphy slaw at 10:18 AM on March 17, 2018 [59 favorites]


Pensions are not a gift, they are earned by the employee and cannot legally be taken away.
posted by bz at 10:21 AM on March 17, 2018 [57 favorites]


For real. Nobody gets to say, "You committed an act of workplace misconduct, and so you don't get to collect Social Security."
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:23 AM on March 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


He's not yet eligible. He hasn't earned shit until tomorrow. Don't commit misconduct while in office.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:24 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Looks like someone kept those receipts.

Literally every high-ranking career official with any integrity at all should've started making such preparations from the moment this regime took power. Notes, relaying incriminating instructions and conversations to others immediately after they happen just to establish them as evidence, all of it. Anyone who saw this crew come into the White House should have started making plans to resign or be fired on principle at any time as a matter of survival.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:25 AM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


I wonder if Mueller got them last night or will get them Monday.

Mueller will have had those memos for nearly a year at this point.
posted by Justinian at 10:25 AM on March 17, 2018 [38 favorites]


Yep last straw for Facebook here. Deleting my account.

Twitter has to go the same way, too.

And IG is owned by Facebook. That's the one I kinda like....

Mastodon it is, I guess.
posted by lazaruslong at 10:27 AM on March 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


Regarding Facebook and the consequences of their lost user data. The new EU privacy law GDPR takes effect on May 25. It is retroactive. It applies to data you've already collected. The fine for data breaches is up to €20 million or 4% of global annual turnover for the preceding financial year.
posted by Julianna Mckannis at 10:33 AM on March 17, 2018 [35 favorites]


Thanks to Dem AGs, we won't have to wait until Da hopefully take the House. I'm sure NY's Schneiderman will be next.

@MassAGO:
#BREAKING: Massachusetts residents deserve answers immediately from Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. We are launching an investigation.
posted by chris24 at 10:34 AM on March 17, 2018 [82 favorites]


McCabe's attorney.

@mrbromwich:
I have been involved in DOJ and FBI disciplinary matters since 1994. I have never before seen the type of rush to judgment – and rush to summary punishment – that we have witnessed in the case of Andy McCabe:

STATEMENT
posted by chris24 at 10:39 AM on March 17, 2018 [46 favorites]


A former business partner of Jafry, Garson Silvers, said Jafry was given his job at Hud after being recommended by Osteen’s mother

It is utterly unsurprising to learn that Naved Jafry, whose entire life seems to be made out of scams and lies, is buddy-buddy with the Osteens.

Unsurprising, mind you, but not expected. It is a bit unnerving to learn that all the grifters on the conservative/evangelical circuit seem to be in on the same damn scams; that instead of a lot of individual con-men working their inividual cons there seems to be concerted, cooperative effort to hoover up all the money they can and steal everything that isn't nailed down.
posted by jackbishop at 10:41 AM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


Mueller will have had those memos for nearly a year at this point.

Oh, duh, right. He has built-in access to internal FBI documents.
posted by FelliniBlank at 10:44 AM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
As the House Intelligence Committee has concluded, there was no collusion between Russia and the Trump Campaign. As many are now finding out, however, there was tremendous leaking, lying and corruption at the highest levels of the FBI, Justice & State. #DrainTheSwamp
The Fake News is beside themselves that McCabe was caught, called out and fired. How many hundreds of thousands of dollars was given to wife’s campaign by Crooked H friend, Terry M, who was also under investigation? How many lies? How many leaks? Comey knew it all, and much more!


Looks to be a Decompensation Saturday.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:44 AM on March 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


god i just want him to go full cornered rabid animal and get it over with, the tension is unbearable.

if you want a vision of the future, imagine doctor frank n. furter saying "anticpa…" in a human face, forever.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:46 AM on March 17, 2018 [44 favorites]


🍿🍿🍿

@Comey:
Mr. President, the American people will hear my story very soon. And they can judge for themselves who is honorable and who is not.
posted by chris24 at 10:47 AM on March 17, 2018 [54 favorites]


Trump alone in the WH on a weekend and no golf. Bodes well.
posted by chris24 at 10:49 AM on March 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


Oh, duh, right. He has built-in access to internal FBI documents.

It's obvious both to anyone observing closely and from the reporting (last week?!?!) that Mueller has already concluded that Trump is guilty as hell of Obstruction of Justice and is keeping that charge in his back pocket while he pursues other crimes. Because if he brought that out now he might not get the opportunity to pursue the rest.

I wonder if he's got a dead man's switch with the obstruction charges. I suppose it depends on how much he trusts Rosenstein.
posted by Justinian at 10:49 AM on March 17, 2018 [30 favorites]


... the many dangers inherent in alienating the entire reputable legal profession.
This has been Trump's Method of Operation for DECADES, and it hadn't failed him yet. Of course, I must note (again) that one group of the legal profession he never alienated were corrupt prosecutors in New York and New Jersey... like Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani.


It kinda has....Trump's litigation record isn't so impressive. He's just managed the keep the pace of his grift (and now graft) ahead of the pace of litigation. (Which isn't exactly a superhuman feat.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:59 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


god i just want him to go full cornered rabid animal

is that not what's happening right now?
posted by ryanrs at 10:59 AM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Trump is nothing but a personality who needs to amplify the sound of his own hoofbeats, who is not cold-blooded, but hot-blooded. The fever pitch will be quite shrill indeed by the time anybody with authority can kneecap Mueller.
posted by rhizome at 11:00 AM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


On MSNBC: "This treatment of McCabe is reminiscent of Roy Cohn, Trump's mentor, who with Senator McCarthy destroyed so many American lives. Today, Roy Cohn is smiling in Hell."
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:02 AM on March 17, 2018 [14 favorites]


He's just managed the keep the pace of his grift (and now graft) ahead of the pace of litigation.
But far ahead of PROSECUTION. The only structure that should have Trump's name on it is a prison cell, but it's not.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:05 AM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Trump Suite could be the crappiest cell in the shittiest federal prison in America.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:08 AM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


The Trump Suite could be the crappiest cell in the shittiest federal prison in America.

Or Funeral March of a Marionette, butt arranged for a concerto of whoopie cushions.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:12 AM on March 17, 2018 [6 favorites]


BREAKING: AP learns fired FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe maintained personal memos regarding President Donald Trump.

The WSJ confirms this, with an additional detail: "Mr. McCabe wrote contemporaneous memos describing his dealings with Mr. Trump and the White House, as well as about what Mr. Comey told Mr. McCabe about his own interactions, a person close to Mr. McCabe said.

"This person said that Mr. McCabe turned the memos over to Mr. Mueller."
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:22 AM on March 17, 2018 [45 favorites]


He's not yet eligible. He hasn't earned shit until tomorrow.

He's not yet eligible for an enhanced retirement benefit for federal law enforcement officers who can retire early at the age of 50, but he has earned and is still eligible for his full pension once he reaches age 57, the mandatory retirement age for federal law enforcement officers. He could only lose that pension for treason or espionage.

His early termination will result in approximately $392,000 in foregone annuity payments over the next seven years. The exact number depends on some possible performance bonuses and the possibility that he may have briefly earned a higher salary while he was acting Director for three months.
posted by jedicus at 11:36 AM on March 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


The Intercept, Ryan Grim and Sam Biddle, Democrats want to subpoena Apple to find out when key administration officials downloaded encrypted messaging apps
Down on Page 20 of the memo is a pair of ideas that could put Congress on a collision course with privacy advocates in Silicon Valley. “Apple: The Committee should seek records reflecting downloaded encrypted messaging apps for certain key individuals,” the memo suggests. “The Committee should likewise issue a subpoena to WhatsApp for messages exchanged between key witnesses of interest.”

The committee said that it would also seek to find out “all messaging applications that Mr. [Jared] Kushner used during the campaign as well as the presidential transition, including but not limited to SMS, iMessage, Whatsapp, Facebook Messenger, Signal, Slack, Instagram, and Snapchat.”

The committee may also consider adding ProtonMail, the encrypted email service, to that list. One White House staffer, Ryan P. McAvoy, jotted his ProtonMail passwords and his address on a piece of White House stationary and left it at a bus stop near the White House. A source found it there and provided it to The Intercept, which confirmed its authenticity. (McAvoy did not respond to requests for comment.)
Only. The. Best. People.
But. Her. Emails.

Fun fact: when you Google Ryan P. McAvoy to find out who he is (staff assistant), one of the hits that comes up is this email on which McAvoy is CC'd inviting new staff to training on the Presidential Records Act.
posted by zachlipton at 11:47 AM on March 17, 2018 [50 favorites]


I know a lot of people here don’t like Comey (understandable), but I personally cannot wait to see him in Portland on April 21st! I am so excited and you will definitely see me there asking as many questions as I can possibly ask! I’m already making a list.
posted by gucci mane at 11:53 AM on March 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


Ask him how he feels about foisting this waking nightmare on all of us, please.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:55 AM on March 17, 2018 [71 favorites]


The whole thing about a Congressperson hiring McCabe for a few days is just trolling, right? Isn't it the firing that costs his pension rather than the lack of 2 days of service?
posted by Justinian at 11:56 AM on March 17, 2018


My sense is that Comey's a fairly decent human being who made a mistake that in retrospect turned out to have hugely terrible effects.

I hope he's able to find a way to own up to the part he played in creating the Current Shitnado.
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:56 AM on March 17, 2018 [22 favorites]


At this point, I'm willing to give leeway to those People Who Didn't Intend For Quite This Much Shitnado who help work to bring down the People Who Really Do Want This Much And A Lot More.
posted by delfin at 12:02 PM on March 17, 2018 [59 favorites]


Mod note: Couple deleted; sorry, there's no coming back from the perennially irresistible topic of Which Game of Thrones Character Is Comey or any other figure in this omnishambles. Can't open that door even a crack.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:04 PM on March 17, 2018 [60 favorites]


He did a shit thing and now he's doing a not-shit thing. I don't see any reason to try and figure out whether the scales of his entire life ultimately tip one way or another based on that stuff.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:08 PM on March 17, 2018 [27 favorites]


the likelihood that all of CA's data wasn't being fed directly to the Russian botnets seems close to zero. We're going to get those next links too.

As you were saying... The Guardian, Carole Cadwalladr, The Cambridge Analytica Files
There are other dramatic documents in Wylie’s stash, including a pitch made by Cambridge Analytica to Lukoil, Russia’s second biggest oil producer. In an email dated 17 July 2014, about the US presidential primaries, Nix wrote to Wylie: “We have been asked to write a memo to Lukoil (the Russian oil and gas company) to explain to them how our services are going to apply to the petroleum business. Nix said that “they understand behavioural microtargeting in the context of elections” but that they were “failing to make the connection between voters and their consumers”. The work, he said, would be “shared with the CEO of the business”, a former Soviet oil minister and associate of Putin, Vagit Alekperov.

“It didn’t make any sense to me,” says Wylie. “I didn’t understand either the email or the pitch presentation we did. Why would a Russian oil company want to target information on American voters?”

Mueller’s investigation traces the first stages of the Russian operation to disrupt the 2016 US election back to 2014, when the Russian state made what appears to be its first concerted efforts to harness the power of America’s social media platforms, including Facebook. And it was in late summer of the same year that Cambridge Analytica presented the Russian oil company with an outline of its datasets, capabilities and methodology. The presentation had little to do with “consumers”. Instead, documents show it focused on election disruption techniques. The first slide illustrates how a “rumour campaign” spread fear in the 2007 Nigerian election – in which the company worked – by spreading the idea that the “election would be rigged”. The final slide, branded with Lukoil’s logo and that of SCL Group and SCL Elections, headlines its “deliverables”: “psychographic messaging”.
...
There’s no evidence that Cambridge Analytica ever did any work for Lukoil. What these documents show, though, is that in 2014 one of Russia’s biggest companies was fully briefed on: Facebook, microtargeting, data, election disruption.
posted by zachlipton at 12:13 PM on March 17, 2018 [60 favorites]


Comey knowingly put his thumb on the electoral scale. He intentionally influenced the outcome, in a way that was plainly partisan and starkly counter to both the expected impartiality of law enforcement and informal safeguards established for such investigations, wound up in a pissing match with Trump, and lost. Now he has buyer's remorse.

We should listen to what he has to say, but we shouldn't let him rehabilitate himself just because we're eager to hear it. He disgraced his office, imperiled the basic rule of law and placed every human being on this earth at serious risk by both by his direct actions and their consequences.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:14 PM on March 17, 2018 [42 favorites]


it seems fundamentally American to me that the biggest existential crisis of the century for the republic was enabled in large part by an overly optimistic act of ass-covering
posted by murphy slaw at 12:15 PM on March 17, 2018 [44 favorites]


Wasn't Comey forced to write that letter because the FBI NY field office (or Giuiliani or both) had leaked to Jason Chaffetz about the Weiner's laptop still having mails that were not analysed?
posted by PenDevil at 12:17 PM on March 17, 2018 [13 favorites]


There are state privacy laws to consider, as well as the fact that Facebook is a publicly owned company and owes duties to its stockholders.

Facebook's in the very unusual situation where the vast majority of its shareholders are also likely to be users/customers, millions of whom also had their privacy violated in this breach.
posted by msalt at 12:20 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Wasn't Comey forced to write that letter because the FBI NY field office (or Giuiliani or both) had leaked to Jason Chaffetz about the Weiner's laptop still having mails that were not analysed?

He wasn't forced. Effectively he thought that HRC would win and she would immediately get dragged into hearings by a hostile Republican legislature. He didn't want to be seen as covering for her in any conceivable way, cries of "but our job is to be impartial" be damned. At that point he's basically between a rock and a hard place. Either he goes along with protocol and gets reamed by hearing after hearing for the next few years or he writes a stupid letter and when the Republican attack dogs come looking for him he puts his hands up and says "hey, I let y'all know".

He, like everyone else, was just surprised with the dumpster fire winning.
posted by Talez at 12:22 PM on March 17, 2018 [21 favorites]


Comey forced to write that letter

Forced? No. Pressured, at best. And certainly not that letter. And maybe just have some integrity instead of caving.

And given what we now know the FBI knew or suspected about Trump & company where was Comey's burning need for candor to the American citizenry there?

I want his receipts but he can sell his mea culpas elsewhere.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:25 PM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Could we -not- have the "is the enemy of our enemy -really- our friend?" debate literally every time someone who has done bad things also does useful things? I swear we have that debate in every one of these threads.
posted by Archelaus at 12:26 PM on March 17, 2018 [88 favorites]


Mod note: Well put, and seconding that.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:28 PM on March 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


The Russians, the Evil Clique of the FBI, the NRA, the Kochs and Mercers, the GOP vote-ratfuckers, the Social Media Bros... all influenced the results of the 2016 Election, but nobody really coordinated with anybody, especially Trump, who can't even coordinate himself climbing the White House stairs. All they really had in common was a disdain/hatred of Hillary Clinton. A variation of the "enemy-of-our-enemy" conundrum is the "are all our enemies allies with each other"??? And then we get the realization that "agents of chaos" unintentionally enable the worst Fascists ("No no no! We wanted CHAOS!"). Could removing any one of the bad actors have reversed the results of 2016? Maybe certain specific ones (especially the vote-ratfuckers), but it was a combined effort, just not a coordinated one.
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:40 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


I don’t think we know that.
posted by kerf at 12:42 PM on March 17, 2018 [12 favorites]


nobody really coordinated with anybody

We have plenty of specific examples of people coordinating with each other, such as Stone and Assange, or Manafort, Trump Jr, Kushner and Veselnitskaya, or Kislyak and Everybody.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:49 PM on March 17, 2018 [49 favorites]


nobody really coordinated with anybody Oneswellfoop
Hmmm.... interesting talking point , where is it from *checks note card*
I hear you.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 12:58 PM on March 17, 2018


I took onefellswoop to mean 'everybody didn't conspire with everybody else' in their various efforts and maneuverings, i.e. not a unified conspiracy but a patchwork of diverse conspiracies and individual efforts, some more extraordinary than others. Which seems manifestly accurate with all these different stories now in view.

Multifuckeralism.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:59 PM on March 17, 2018 [31 favorites]


Cooperating, yes, but not coordinating in any major way . Trump's victory was a "death by a thousand little cuts".
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:00 PM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


And I am absolutely not saying that there aren't dozens if not hundreds of laws broken in the process. I like snuffleupagus' term "Multifuckeralism".
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:03 PM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


This was a very close election. The “cooperation” between Trump’s team and agents of Putin working to influence the election through what our President would dub “the Cyber” may very well have been decisive. Let’s not kid ourselves.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:04 PM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Can't open that door even a crack.

You really need some kind of slow-witted but very strong person who knows how important it is to keep the door closed
posted by chappell, ambrose at 1:04 PM on March 17, 2018 [110 favorites]


McCabe is accused of misleading investigators about allegedly giving information to a former Wall Street Journal reporter about the investigation of Hillary Clinton and the Clinton family’s charitable foundation. McCabe asserts in his post-firing statement that he not only had authority to “share” that information to the media but did so with the knowledge of “the director.” The FBI director at the time was Comey.

“I chose to share with a reporter through my public affairs officer and a legal counselor,” McCabe stated. “As deputy director, I was one of only a few people who had the authority to do that. It was not a secret, it took place over several days, and others, including the director, were aware of the interaction with the reporter.”

If the “interaction” means leaking the information, then McCabe’s statement would seem to directly contradict statements Comey made in a May 2017 congressional hearing.
Jonathan Turley makes this sound ominous in a column in The Hill, but this analysis seems to me to be calling a molehill a mountain. (Allegedly) leaking and lying about doing so seems justifiable in the face of what Trump was doing at the time (and still is). Is there really some there here?
posted by GrammarMoses at 1:06 PM on March 17, 2018


The Russians, the Evil Clique of the FBI, the NRA, the Kochs and Mercers, the GOP vote-ratfuckers, the Social Media Bros... all influenced the results of the 2016 Election, but nobody really coordinated with anybody, especially Trump

NRA w/ Russians, check
Russians w/ Trump, check
NRA w/ Trump, check
Russians w/ Social Media, check
Social Media w/ Trump, check
Rorhbacher, Nunes, McConnel, Ryan check, check, amazing coinciden e, laughing on tape,

I mean, I guess i could just hyperlink each "check" with the dozens and dozens of publically available sources, but some very fine people put it all together for me already. :)
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 1:19 PM on March 17, 2018 [18 favorites]


I'm now having bitter memories of how many felt that American Nazis in the last season of Breaking Bad was to out there. Vince and his team knew. They knew.
posted by juiceCake at 1:24 PM on March 17, 2018 [13 favorites]


everybody didn't conspire with everybody else' in their various efforts and maneuverings, i.e. not a unified conspiracy but a patchwork of diverse conspiracies and individual efforts

For at least some of these actors, I see an analogy to that time when you* and your housemates opened up the big bag of Halloween candy on October 25th and had an occasional piece each over the next couple of days. Nobody had any particular plan to eat all the candy, but somehow Halloween rolls around and you've got an empty bowl and sad kids.

The media, the FBI, a handful of other actors... AFAICT, none of them wanted Trump to win, but a "display of impartiality" or "ginning up a horse race" was profitable, and, hey, Clinton was obviously more qualified and had an insurmountable lead, so why not make your own life easier or better shaving points off of that huge advantage. And then, on November 9th, surprise! You've got an incompetent fascist dictator (and, again, sad kids).

I dunno how to assess the moral valence, but there is a difference in intent between those who actually wanted Trump to win and those who didn't.

* Hypothetical you, of course. You would never do this. And neither would I.
posted by jackbishop at 1:25 PM on March 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


From The Guardian article linked to above by Carole Cadwalladr:

Millions of people’s personal information was stolen and used to target them in ways they wouldn’t have seen, and couldn’t have known about, by a mercenary outfit, Cambridge Analytica, who, Wylie says, “would work for anyone”. Who would pitch to Russian oil companies. Would they subvert elections abroad on behalf of foreign governments?

Advertisement

It occurs to me to ask Wylie this one night.

“Yes.”

Nato or non-Nato?

“Either. I mean they’re mercenaries. They’ll work for pretty much anyone who pays.”

It’s an incredible revelation. It also encapsulates all of the problems of outsourcing – at a global scale, with added cyberweapons. And in the middle of it all are the public – our intimate family connections, our “likes”, our crumbs of personal data, all sucked into a swirling black hole that’s expanding and growing and is now owned by a politically motivated billionaire.

The Facebook data is out in the wild. And for all Wylie’s efforts, there’s no turning the clock back.


I have given The Guardian some money in the past. I am now going to go give that paper some more. Journalism like this needs to be encouraged and supported.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:33 PM on March 17, 2018 [28 favorites]


Nobody had any particular plan to eat all the candy, but somehow Halloween rolls around and you've got an empty bowl and sad kids.

It's not actually the last straw that breaks the camel's back. It's the weight of all of them. Some people feel like getting their one straw up there is really important, and it's just one straw after all. Others won't get paid if they come home with any of their bosses' straw left over, even if it kills the camel for tomorrow's load. Others have a bale of fake straws and actually want to see the camel fall. Everyone sees each other lined up to get to the camel...everyone can see all the straw...but no one goes back home.

And that's how we wound up with the jackass instead.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:33 PM on March 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


Well, that and irrational resentment of camels.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:37 PM on March 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


Crowdsourced Surveillance—US spy lab hopes to geotag every outdoor photo on social media
"Finder" will geotag images by terrain, sky features.
Finder is but one of several image processing projects underway at IARPA. Another, called Aladdin Video, seeks to extract intelligence information from social media video clips by tagging them with metadata about their content. Another, called Deep Intermodal Video Analytics (DIVA), is focused on detecting "activities" within videos, such as people acting in a manner that could be defined as "dangerous" or "suspicious"—making it possible to monitor huge volumes of surveillance video simultaneously.
posted by XMLicious at 1:38 PM on March 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


but nobody really coordinated with anybody, especially Trump

I'm firmly convinced that there will be a non-zero number of senators and/or representatives that will be unceremoniously cashiered out of the political gig at the very least, if not imprisoned for various and sundry crimes, for coordinating with anyone and everyone, especially the Trump administration, if Mueller's investigation is allowed to proceed to it's ultimate end. Deeply dirty pols is the only explanation for a number of truly head-scratching behavioral tics exhibited by the GOP since the election.

Was it an all-encompassing mind-numbingly large conspiracy that got DJT elected? No. After he was elected? There has definitely been some shady shit going on, or getting covered up.
posted by eclectist at 1:47 PM on March 17, 2018 [22 favorites]


oh hey, i totally missed this:

Sessions’ Firing McCabe Violated His Promise to Recuse

sessions fired mccabe over his conduct in the russia probe. sessions is recused from that matter. this should have been handled by rosenstein.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:53 PM on March 17, 2018 [78 favorites]


From that Guardian Cambridge Analytica article:

A few months later, in autumn 2013, Wylie met Steve Bannon. At the time, he was editor-in-chief of Breitbart, which he had brought to Britain to support his friend Nigel Farage in his mission to take Britain out of the European Union.

What was he like?

“Smart,” says Wylie. “Interesting. Really interested in ideas. He’s the only straight man I’ve ever talked to about intersectional feminist theory. He saw its relevance straightaway to the oppressions that conservative, young white men feel.”



Do you know what? I could probably literally throw a rock and hit a straight man with whom I could talk about intersectional feminist theory. It's not that unusual if you, like, hang out with left-leaning people who read a lot.

This is just what I said about Bannon from the get-go, and I extend it to all these people - they are not actually smart or sophisticated. They're people who've hung out with people who think that deceiving and controlling and cheating other people is neat, and they think that because you spend a lot of your limited years on this earth scheming how to trick others, that makes you smart. It's like if I decided that because I spent all my time figuring out how to vomit patterns on the rug, that made me smarter than people who didn't find vomiting in patterns interesting.

I'm always reading articles like this, where some white man will pop out with some relatively banal insight about the world, and because he says it in front of a bunch of extremely ill-informed people with minimal interiority and he isn't actually stupid, they act as though he's, like, Theodore Adorno or something.

I know a lot of extremely smart people in a range of professions, and if you said to them "you're so smart, why don't you spend your time figuring out how to manipulate people and installing petty dictators so that you can make a lot of money instead of spending all your time studying sea life [or doing physics, or translating things, or looking at phages, etc etc]" almost all of them would say, "Because I'm too smart to want to, that's why".
posted by Frowner at 1:57 PM on March 17, 2018 [128 favorites]


sessions fired mccabe over his conduct in the russia probe. sessions is recused from that matter. this should have been handled by rosenstein.

Well, they're claiming they fired him over his conduct related to one of the investigations of Clinton, not the Carter Page Nunes memo stuff. However, let's remember what Sessions actually recused himself from: "I have decided to recuse myself from any existing or future investigations of any matters related in any way to the campaigns for President of the United States."
posted by FelliniBlank at 1:58 PM on March 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


correction: mccabe’s coonduct in the clinton probe, which sessions also recused himself from
posted by murphy slaw at 2:00 PM on March 17, 2018 [2 favorites]


I feel like today puts the pieces together with the sequence of the T campaign's direction.
Russia corruption money-laundering + hacking + Wikileaks feeding media frenzy on emails and Trumpish bluster, topped up by Bannon joining up with years-long tested tool (CA, facebook data) to put it over the top in microtargeted efforts, even up to the last moment.

I finally understand the utility and power of Bannon in the campaign, all behind the scenes apparently.
posted by rc3spencer at 2:02 PM on March 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


Caroline O. @RVAwonk unearths this blast from the past:
Cambridge Analytica CEO Alexander Nix (Nov. 9, 2016): “We are thrilled that our revolutionary approach to data-driven communications played such an integral part in President-elect Donald Trump’s extraordinary win.”
Full press release on PR Wire:
Cambridge Analytica, the market leader in the provision of data analytics and behavioral communications, would like to congratulate President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence on their historic victory.

Cambridge Analytica was instrumental in identifying supporters, persuading undecided voters, and driving turnout to the polls. The firm's integrated Data Science, Digital Marketing, and Polling and Research teams informed key decisions on campaigning, communications, and resource allocation.[...]

"Our internal data showed the race tightening in the last few weeks of the election because of previously hidden trends within voter sampling and demographic abnormalities in absentee ballots and early voting (particularly in rural areas). These trends, in part, were responsible for the boost towards the president-elect in the industrial Midwest," said Matthew Oczkowski, Head of Product for Cambridge Analytica. "Our models predicted most of the late movement correctly. We are extremely proud of the work that we were able to do in collaboration with the campaign."

Cambridge Analytica planned and executed the campaign's digital media planning and buying operation to win over voters, and was able to test and immediately refine its messaging and delivery platforms by using the firm's data and polling.
The country needs to investigate why CA/SCL was so confident with its internal data when those of not only the Clinton campaign but also establishment pollsters were so surprisingly wrong.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:12 PM on March 17, 2018 [49 favorites]


everybody didn't conspire with everybody else' in their various efforts and maneuverings, i.e. not a unified conspiracy but a patchwork of diverse conspiracies and individual efforts

The trick is not to put a cover page on your TPS report. Then there can be no overall conspiracy.
posted by srboisvert at 2:29 PM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


where some white man will pop out with some relatively banal insight about the world, and because he says it in front of a bunch of extremely ill-informed people with minimal interiority and he isn't actually stupid, they act as though he's, like, Theodore Adorno or something.

Hey, didja know there's a really great almost every TED talk on is this phenomenon?
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:37 PM on March 17, 2018 [51 favorites]


Just to reemphasize a point I've made before and to echo Zachlipton above: from what I understand, the overwhelming opinion among academics and high-tech campaign folks is that the effects of Cambridge Analytica's microtargeting are way overblown. They took an algorithm that seemed reasonably decent at predicting personality traits, and then claimed -- as so many other microtargeters do -- that because they could target ads to specific individuals based on these specific traits, therefore they could deliver persuasion. There is almost no evidence of the latter. Microtargeting works badly if at all, there is almost no evidence that CA's methods had much of any effect, and no reason to think that adding big-5 personality scores plus "social media" will suddenly transform microtargeting that already uses myriad other individual-level features into something magically effective or sinister. I hope that by six-degrees-of-Russia this doesn't make me into an apologist around here, but people should know that many experts in microtargeting, campaigns, and social media analytics consider CA to be mainly a scam, and fears about it driven much more by the wider context of anxiety about elections, Russia, social media, etc, than any good evidence that CA actually did or could make any difference, even on the scale of an election decided by a few thousand votes.
posted by chortly at 2:41 PM on March 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


Trump wants to punish McCabe, so he has him fired just hours before his pension kicks in. That's a loss of many thousands of dollars earned over two decades.

Just to point out that screwing people out of their pensions -- whether by tanking their 401k, failing to fund it -- like in Kentucky right now -- or other shenanigans seems to be the go-to Republican tactic.

They're after your life savings.
posted by Gelatin at 2:48 PM on March 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


This is a useful (and from my experience developing on the FB platform, I believe fairly accurate) thread on Facebook's API, how it's changed over time, what the Obama 2012 campaign did with similar data, and the argument over whether Facebook had a "breach" or not.

This really was how the Facebook platform worked until 2015. They didn't see it as unique or unusual because everyone was slurping down as much of the data as possible, and everyone knew that making you pinky swear you'd only use the data in certain ways was entirely unenforceable. I mean, I built apps that collected information about your FB likes and your friends' likes and stored them; that was what Facebook wanted you to do with their API. There's a good argument that the primary driver for changing the way the APIs worked was that Facebook was undercutting themselves by giving too much of their most valuable asset, their data, away for free, that you could collect and target so much without having to actually buy your ads through Facebook, and there were a series of API changes around that time period to stop that.

People are talking about this like Facebook screwed up (and I mean, they very much did, on a broad scale) and leaked 50M profiles, or that CA "stole" the data through particularly nefarious means (beyond collecting it for personality quizzes and then using it for this, and "lie about your intentions, which will never be verified" is not a cunning plot) when this to me looks like the platform working as it was basically originally designed. And that's the scary part.
posted by zachlipton at 2:52 PM on March 17, 2018 [38 favorites]


Chortly - Pretty sure their snake oil is snake oil and they are doing absolutely nothing magical at all, but between this and the data from the electoral rolls they and the Internet Research Agency could probably have cooked up a pretty effective campaign whilst pretending they were doing something clever with other data.
posted by Artw at 2:53 PM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Another congressman steps up to help McCabe with his pension problem: @RepTimWalz This reckless attitude towards Americans’ lives and careers is exactly why this man should not be President. Mr. McCabe, if you need a federal job for a few days, give me a call. We value servant leadership around here.
posted by scalefree at 2:56 PM on March 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


Chortly - Pretty sure their snake oil is snake oil and they are doing absolutely nothing magical at all, but between this and the data from the electoral rolls they and the Internet Research Agency could probably have cooked up a pretty effective campaign whilst pretending they were doing something clever with other data.

The crux is the "pretty effective" part. I imagine CA do believe their snake oil, and that IRA thought they were engaged in a "pretty effective campaign" -- and of course many others believe this as well -- but the point is just that, within the academic and peri-academic world of social media, microtargeting and campaigns, few believe that any techniques exist that are "pretty effective" at affecting voting behavior, and most strongly doubt that the techniques described by CA or the IRA would have any aggregate effect at all, let along be "pretty effective." Who knows, there could always be something more we don't know, but if true it would revolutionize not just campaigns but marketing in general if either of those groups had come up with new microtargeting techniques with the effectiveness that people seem to give them credit for.
posted by chortly at 3:05 PM on March 17, 2018 [1 favorite]




Identifying likely voters and bombarding them and those connected with them with disinfo and viral material and targeted ads in an attempt to push them over doesn't really seem like that much like rocket science in terms of complexity or likelihood of success, TBH. I wouldn't dismiss it even if their meyers-bridge garbage is bollocks.
posted by Artw at 3:13 PM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


I don't think anything had to be "pretty effective". The Russia-Republican allied campaign was pushing several different messages to different audiences, all of which combined to contribute to a preexisting dissatisfaction with the candidates and futile/defeated general environment. Remember how many people were saying they're both the same? Hilary is the real war hawk? The unprecedented support for third party spoilers? All of that was being pushed by the Russia-Republicans. They told black voters their vote didn't matter so vote 3rd party. They told gun nuts Hilary was coming for the AR-15s. They told Bernie Bros the DNC rigged the primary. They told everyone Hilary was a literal murderer. And they packaged it all around overwrought stories based on complete falsehoods. All individually targeted to individual voter's Facebook feeds, and often filtered through real life social connections.

That did have an effect, either in moving votes, or contributing to the overall environment that favored apathy, and therefore favored Trump. It didn't have to be very effective, any effect was enough.

Oh, and we're still talking about literal treason here. So ANY coordination with Russia, was treason. Regardless of the effectiveness.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:16 PM on March 17, 2018 [84 favorites]


Microtargeting works badly if at all, there is almost no evidence that CA's methods had much of any effect

Yeah, I haven't heard any of the behaviorists I know saying anything other than that it's snake oil.

The thing is -- and let me rush to note that I don't think you were implying otherwise or are likely to disagree -- is that from the point of view of the larger scandal it doesn't matter whether CA's methods were effective or not.
The Trump campaign was in bed with Russian security agencies, who were busy breaking American law in the US to provide them with information, coordinating with UK firms to further violate US election laws, etc etc. It doesn't matter whether their efforts were successful any more than it matters to the law whether the hitman you hired was successful.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:25 PM on March 17, 2018 [29 favorites]


In this Guardian video interview with Chris Wylie, the Cambridge Analytica data scientist whistleblower, he talks about CA's flimflam sales techniques and does say that they didn't do anything that had not been done before (except scrape 50 - 60 million facebook user's information through the third party app). At times he does seem to get a little carried away with what he did, because I'm sure he thinks it was somewhat effective. The part where he talks about whispering something slightly different into everyone's ear is convincing.
posted by maggiemaggie at 3:33 PM on March 17, 2018 [9 favorites]


I think the role of CA was not "super effective online marketing."

It was just "delivering data about American voters to Russia" (they left huge caches of voter targeting info freely available online where Russian intellgence might "accidentally" come across it) and "helping deliver Russian disinformation to American voters" (they reached out to WikiLeaks and offered to help Assange sort through the DNC emails.)

I think other people negotiated the policy concessions Trump offered to Putin (Sessions, Flynn, Manafort, JD Gordon) and the financial benefits Trump got in return (Sater, Kushner, Page, Manafort again.)

But as far as actual collusion -- Americans helping with Russian efforts -- I think Cambridge Analytica was the primary vehicle for that. Not in some voodoo social engineering way. Just as a conduit for exchanging information.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:37 PM on March 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


Axios reports, Source: McCabe Gave Interview, Memos to Mueller
Andrew McCabe, the former FBI deputy director who was fired Friday night, has met with special counsel Robert Mueller's team and has turned over memos detailing interactions with President Trump, according to a source familiar with the exchange. McCabe's interview with Mueller's prosecutors apparently included what he knows about former FBI director James Comey's firing. The memos include corroboration by McCabe of Comey's account of his own firing by Trump, according to the source.[...]

The handful of memos document both McCabe's own direct engagement with the president and Comey's. The memos include an account of at least one in-person meeting with Trump, the source said.
While this leak amounts only to confirmation of what any reasonable observer would expect, what's important is that its timing comes as a direct response to Trump firing McCabe and his effort to bundle it up with Comey's dismissal and his allegations of "tremendous leaking, lying and corruption at the highest levels of the FBI, Justice & State." McCabe and his allies are sending a clear message to Trump that this Friday night massacre won't stop him from bearing witness.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:57 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Mod note: Deleted a pedantic derail about use of the word "treason," if you need to hash this out, it has to happen in metatalk.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 4:02 PM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


NYt has a CA/Lukoil story up now too: Data Firm Tied to Trump Campaign Talked Business With Russians
Lukoil was interested in how data was used to target American voters, according to two former company insiders who said there were at least three meetings with Lukoil executives in London and Turkey. SCL and Lukoil denied that the talks were political in nature, and SCL also said there were no meetings in London.

The contacts took place as Cambridge Analytica was building a roster of Republican political clients in the United States — and harvesting the Facebook profiles of over 50 million users to develop tools it said could analyze voters’ behavior.

Cambridge Analytica also included extensive questions about Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, in surveys it was carrying out in American focus groups in 2014. It is not clear what — or which client — prompted the line of questioning, which asked for views on topics ranging from Mr. Putin’s popularity to Russian expansionism.
...
“I remember being super confused,” said Mr. Wylie, who took part in one of the Lukoil meetings.

“I kept asking Alexander, ‘Can you explain to me what they want?’” he said, referring to Mr. Nix. “I don’t understand why Lukoil wants to know about political targeting in America.”

“We’re sending them stuff about political targeting — they then come and ask more about political targeting,” Mr. Wylie said, adding that Lukoil “just didn’t seem to be interested” in how the techniques could be used commercially.
The Times has a second, anonymous, source for this beyond Wylie.
posted by zachlipton at 4:05 PM on March 17, 2018 [20 favorites]


@SarahHuckabee: "When you're attacking FBI agents because you're under criminal investigation, you're losing" (November 3, 2016)

@soledadobrien: "Then girl--you're losing."
posted by mosk at 4:33 PM on March 17, 2018 [77 favorites]


The New York Times: Mueller Wants Trump’s Business Records. What’s the Russia Connection?
  • There Was a Moscow Hotel Deal in the Works During the Campaign
  • Mr. Trump Took Miss Universe to Moscow and ‘Met the Top People’
  • The Trumps’ German Bank Paid Fines in a Russian Money-Laundering Case
  • A Russian Oligarch Bought a Trump Mansion at a High Price
  • There Were Boasts That Russian Money Helped Pay for Golf Courses and Other Projects

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:50 PM on March 17, 2018 [11 favorites]


The crux is the "pretty effective" part. I imagine CA do believe their snake oil, and that IRA thought they were engaged in a "pretty effective campaign" -- and of course many others believe this as well -- but the point is just that, within the academic and peri-academic world of social media, microtargeting and campaigns, few believe that any techniques exist that are "pretty effective" at affecting voting behavior, and most strongly doubt that the techniques described by CA or the IRA would have any aggregate effect at all, let along be "pretty effective." Who knows, there could always be something more we don't know, but if true it would revolutionize not just campaigns but marketing in general if either of those groups had come up with new microtargeting techniques with the effectiveness that people seem to give them credit for.

Yes and no.

It depends on the microtargeting technique. "Hillary is just as bad/corrupt" was a very effective one. Combined with all the other confounding factors the R's wholly introduced to U.S. politics...

It was a knife edge election.

Propaganda is pretty much proven to work. Targeted propaganda only needs to land a butterfly on the scale to steal a country.

Same as Spam, it only takes a 0.001 ROI.
posted by Buntix at 4:50 PM on March 17, 2018 [33 favorites]


Chortly - Pretty sure their snake oil is snake oil and they are doing absolutely nothing magical at all, but between this and the data from the electoral rolls they and the Internet Research Agency could probably have cooked up a pretty effective campaign whilst pretending they were doing something clever with other data.

Also criminals are not judged by the efficiency and accuracy of their crimes. Receiving foreign aid, money laundering and undeclared contributions are the campaign crimes. The aid doesn't have to have mattered. The money laundering doesn't have to actually clean the money. The contributions don't have to be effectively spent. They are all still crimes.
posted by srboisvert at 4:56 PM on March 17, 2018 [49 favorites]


“Your Honor, my client may have committed this offense, but to be fair, he clearly wasn’t very good at it, or you wouldn’t have caught him.”
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:57 PM on March 17, 2018 [77 favorites]


Politico: FEC probes whether NRA got illegal Russian donations

Under FEC procedures, the preliminary investigation is likely to require the NRA to turn over closely guarded internal documents and campaign finance records. Depending on what FEC investigators and lawyers find, the agency could launch a full-blown investigation, impose fines or even make criminal referrals to the Justice Department and Special Counsel Robert Mueller, people familiar with the probe said.

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 5:19 PM on March 17, 2018 [21 favorites]




Hunker down, everyone, He's bored, and up in the residence with his phone.

@realDonaldTrump
The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime. It was based on fraudulent activities and a Fake Dossier paid for by Crooked Hillary and the DNC, and improperly used in FISA COURT for surveillance of my campaign. WITCH HUNT!
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 5:25 PM on March 17, 2018 [24 favorites]


The Mueller probe was in fact started based on Trump's hand-picked Deputy Attorney General being alarmed at Trump's firing of the FBI Director, something which I'm reasonably confident did happen and was not a fever dream relayed to me backwards by a creamed-corn-smeared dwarf dancing in a dramatically-lit club lounge
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 5:28 PM on March 17, 2018 [38 favorites]


Ah, I see now - the capital letters in Trump's tweets are wingnut signals, kinda like the bat-signal…
posted by Pinback at 5:29 PM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


Sean Hannity already volunteered, it's about time Donald stepped up
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 5:29 PM on March 17, 2018 [1 favorite]


@kyledcheney: This is the *first* time @realDonaldTrump has used Mueller’s name in a tweet.
posted by pjenks at 5:31 PM on March 17, 2018 [22 favorites]


The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime

You know, for a probe investigating zero crimes, there sure have been a lot of people pleading guilty to crimes. Felonies, in fact. Weird!
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 5:34 PM on March 17, 2018 [78 favorites]


Yes, that's crimes, plural. He's saying there was no crime, singular. Checkmate, liberals
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:37 PM on March 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


Now that Trump has already pretty much corroborated McCabe's statement and implicitly admitted to obstruction of justice and abuse of power, I'm just waiting until he caps it off by openly saying he had McCabe canned. Because you know he will at some point.
posted by FelliniBlank at 5:37 PM on March 17, 2018 [8 favorites]


Trump on Twitter lately seems to be the equivalent of Drunk Nixon talking to the paintings in the White House in the latter days of Watergate.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:41 PM on March 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


We've all been so concerned about the ability of hostile regimes to read Trump's tweets and gain an immediate impression of his state of mind, we have failed to appreciate the precious schadenfreude provided to us thanks to our ability to read Trump's tweets and gain an immediate impression of his state of mind. Thanks @jack!
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 5:45 PM on March 17, 2018


I guess this is what I mean by "six-degrees-of-Russia." I don't know why anyone would interpret what I was saying as a comment on Russia's criminality, CA's criminality, whether criminal non-success implies non-guilt, collusion, or any of that stuff. C'mon, people -- there really aren't any Russian trolls on here, and a community member pointing out that the science suggests CA's methods were a bunch of baloney and neither they nor the IRA were likely to have had much measurable national-scale persuasive effects (though of course plenty of indirect effects), is really not a sensible target for so much clarification that these are still crimes. Who in these threads of all places really needs this clarified?

Anyway, the point was just an empirical one, because I happen to be interested in microtargeting, social media, and high-tech campaign methods. There are a number of empirical claims being made here, eg:

• The Russia-Republican allied campaign was pushing several different messages to different audiences, all of which combined to contribute to a preexisting dissatisfaction with the candidates and futile/defeated general environment.

• Identifying likely voters and bombarding them and those connected with them with disinfo and viral material and targeted ads in an attempt to push them over doesn't really seem like that much like rocket science in terms of complexity or likelihood of success, TBH. I wouldn't dismiss it even if their meyers-bridge garbage is bollocks.

• It depends on the microtargeting technique. "Hillary is just as bad/corrupt" was a very effective one. Combined with all the other confounding factors the R's wholly introduced to U.S. politics... It was a knife edge election....Propaganda is pretty much proven to work. Targeted propaganda only needs to land a butterfly on the scale to steal a country. Same as Spam, it only takes a 0.001 ROI.


But propaganda in the form of campaign and social media interventions in the modern era is very much not proven to work. No one is "dismissing" anything: there is actual science on this, decades of political science and marketing science, and much of it suggests that almost everything is ineffective, including big-data microtargeting and especially social media methods. We have no good evidence that the CA or IRA stuff actually influenced very many people, and more generally, there have been dozens or hundreds of studies of these kinds of campaign strategies showing that mostly they don't work very well if at all.

In general, it's hard to determine causal direction: whether CA and the like helped to cause a "preexisting dissatisfaction," the HRC disapproval levels, etc, as opposed to merely crafting their messages around existing attitudes. But that's why we have to look to the existing research, which suggests that it's extremely hard to actually budge these attitudes on the national scale even with literally billions of dollars spent in campaigns, let alone some dubious personality-based targeting or $1 million/month social media trolling. Sure, if we set our threshold at "0.001" or focus on whether it flipped a few thousand votes in just the right state, then of course no one can disprove that it might have had an effect. So the overall point is just that, tiny butterfly-flaps aside, there lots of evidence to suggest that these effects, if they exist at all, are pretty tiny. And like climate science or evolution, this isn't all just a matter of our personal opinions -- this stuff has been endlessly tested by entire academic disciplines for decades. There is a very strong prior at this point that most of this stuff is BS and ineffective.

[And finally, just to reiterate what should be unnecessary: I don't discuss this stuff because I secretly want to exculpate Russian, CA, or Trump, or to suggest that a knife-edge election couldn't have been flipped. I just have a pre-existing interest in these things and think that it matters to know whether the criminals actually succeeded, as well as knowing that they are of course still criminals for trying. Knowing this matters because it affects what kind of policies we pursue in the future, but also because it's just interesting in its own right.]
posted by chortly at 6:00 PM on March 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime.

in trump world, an investigation is a thing you start when you stumble upon bank robbers inside the vault, loading cash into sacks. if you don’t have them dead to rights when you start, it’s not a probe, it’s a WITCH HUNT.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:08 PM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


Daniel Dale: "Trump threaded his tweet on the firing of McCabe to the tweet on his anger about the Mueller probe, and now it seems like we’re going to get history’s first 'threading does not imply an actual link, he just threads things for no reason' statement from the White House podium."
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:09 PM on March 17, 2018 [64 favorites]


But propaganda in the form of campaign and social media interventions in the modern era is very much not proven to work.

The research you cited talks about persuasive effect on candidate choices. However, as I understand it, political judgements don't drive election outcomes - turnout does. For example, PA-18 went for Lamb because he got 80% of Clinton's votes, but Saccone only got 53%.

I've heard the research before on political advertising not being effective in driving choice, but is there any research showing how effective it is in driving turnout? I could see the propaganda campaign of 2016 being effective in motivating people to take the time to vote, or discouraging people from voting, even if it didn't change anyone's preferences. Especially if you just happen to know who the registered voters are and target them specifically...
posted by heathkit at 6:21 PM on March 17, 2018 [25 favorites]


Well, the meltdown explained...

@maggieNYT
Soon to be in mine and @nytmike's story, Trump's lawyers recently received a list of questions from Mueller's team that the special counsel would seek answers to in an interview. Adds to the portrait of what took place today.
posted by chris24 at 6:29 PM on March 17, 2018 [66 favorites]


Since Haberman's scoop indicates we're at last approaching the Trump-Mueller showdown, here's the Late Late Show with James Corden's version—Trump to Robert Mueller: 'It Wasn't Me' (w/ Shaggy)
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:43 PM on March 17, 2018 [24 favorites]


I've heard the research before on political advertising not being effective in driving choice, but is there any research showing how effective it is in driving turnout?

Yeah, there's a lot of belief around here in the importance of turnout. I guess the first thing is that, the paper I cited notwithstanding, the vast bulk of the research, as I understand it, examines effects on election outcomes, which encompasses both candidate preference and turnout; and many if not most of the negative results are that there is no effect on electoral outcomes, either via persuasion or turnout. I also recall that turnout is often seen by experts as at least as hard to affect as voter choice, except perhaps for very costly interventions, like offers to drive and physical door-to-door, which of course are very different from what's being discussed with CA, IRA, etc. But I don't have my textbooks at hand to check on that. As I've discussed here before, even candidate ideology (relative to district ideology) seems to have only a small relationship to voting and turnout. The most dominant result in political science and political psychology, I think, is that partisanship and habit trumps everything -- ideology, campaigns, candidates, social media, etc. So it's really hard to flip votes on a national scale, get people to vote if they are used to not voting, or change their attitudes about anything that has already been politically polarized. The downside of this, of course, is conflict, gridlock, acrimony, etc. The one arguable upside may be that it hardens individuals to outside manipulation.
posted by chortly at 6:45 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


Political ads aren't really intended to persuade voters to choose their candidate but to convince those that support their candidate already to go out and vote.

Sort of like how Coke commercials aren't trying to convince you that Coke is better than Pepsi, it's just encouraging those that already think Coke is better to drink more Coke.
posted by VTX at 6:52 PM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


You know you're super fucked when you can't handle the questions you know you're going to be asked let alone the ones you don't know you're going to be asked.
posted by Justinian at 7:02 PM on March 17, 2018 [45 favorites]


Re: microtargetting - I'll note that Google has invested vastly more money into the idea than CA has ever seen and can still barely manage to target me more efficiently than obvious stuff like showing me ads for local dentists when I search for "emergency dentist." Similarly, I think the CA data may have been used to show specific things to target conservative voters, but I suspect the specific message shown to them didn't really matter that much.
posted by Candleman at 7:03 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


You know you're super fucked when you can't handle the questions you know you're going to be asked let alone the ones you don't know you're going to be asked.

It's like all the stress of a job interview, except if you fuck up you go to jail. And if you answer everything honestly you go to jail.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 7:04 PM on March 17, 2018 [27 favorites]


Trump has never experienced a job interview, and he will no doubt go into the meeting with Mueller believing HE is the boss and Mueller is there to plead to keep his job.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:08 PM on March 17, 2018 [41 favorites]


A problem with 'previous research' is that, however valid and conducted appropriately - the underlying conditions/ variables are arguably different/ can change/ are fluid.

The mass micro-targetting of influence and the special circumstances (racism and misogyny, voter suppression, extreme polarization, incurious/ low-information voting populace) that surround this event could render past academic research less useful.

At the very least, the CA attack was potentiated by the supposedly trustworthy media (led by Fox, then Brietbart/Drudge/etc) and decreased the threshold for defense against 'conspiracy theories' etc.

If propaganda is outright absurd, it's easy to dismiss. If you've heard something kinda sorta like it before from some outlet that the FCC doesn't shut down, one may give it more credence and allow it to affect one's decisions/ actions.

Another effect is that by producing so much disinfo, it's like chaff. Even if one was reasonably reasonable and able to dismiss bullshit from one (or a few) outlets as bullshit, if one is completely inundated with bullshit, it's very easier to become disillusioned and care less.

I have an aunt in N. Carolina - it's N. Carolina so it wouldn't have made a difference - who's nominally Democratic but she fully bought into the "both sides," "Hillary is somehow bad," "it doesn't matter" rhetoric. Then proceeded not to bother voting.

Notwithstanding, but fuck. My CSO is dual American/Canadian, libertarian, voted absentee in Alabama (his last state residence) against Trump because Trump - but even he had weird oddball prejudices against Hillary and against both Clintons. Even the conspiracy bullshit ones.

I still have a real very hard time reconciling his Hillary hate.

You know, I'm not sure he actually even voted Clinton but mailed in Johnston or Stein or something instead? He only said that he voted "not Trump."
posted by porpoise at 7:11 PM on March 17, 2018 [16 favorites]


As far as I can remember, nobody got worked up arguing about whether or not breaking into the Watergate would have guaranteed Nixon a successful reelection.
posted by schmod at 7:11 PM on March 17, 2018 [43 favorites]


Mod note: I know things are moving at a rapid pace and Mueller is closing in on Trump, but please resist the urge to comment just to blow off steam because we're all spinning our wheels on a Saturday night waiting for the next thing.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:22 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


"Both sides are the same, I'm not voting" gives you an out so you don't have to examine your own misogyny and/or racism.
posted by maxwelton at 7:22 PM on March 17, 2018 [23 favorites]


Mod note: Relatedly, I know there's a lot of ground to cover with Cambridge Analytica in terms of 1) does anything they did work and help subvert our democracy, and how do we respond to similar subversion attempts? and separately 2) How many laws did they break, and how does this tie into Trump? The conversation will go a lot more easily if we can recognize that both #1 and #2 are of interest, and try not to talk past each other (when one person is on 1 and one is on 2 but they're arguing like they're on the same point), or get upset if someone is more concerned about #1 or #2. They're both legit issues and we can talk about both, and different people will be more concerned about one thing or another depending on their personal and professional interests.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 7:25 PM on March 17, 2018 [17 favorites]


McCabe’s firing shows yet again how readily Trump incriminates himself (Jennifer Rubin, WaPo)
President Trump, never able to conceal his vindictiveness and incapable of understanding what evidence might be used against him, gleefully tweeted, “Andrew McCabe FIRED, a great day for the hard working men and women of the FBI – A great day for Democracy. Sanctimonious James Comey was his boss and made McCabe look like a choirboy. He knew all about the lies and corruption going on at the highest levels of the FBI!” [...]

As a legal matter, this is another ham-handed and downright dumb move in a long line of actions designed to derail, undermine and discredit the Russia investigation.

Joyce White Vance, a former U.S. attorney tells me, “Even if McCabe’s firing is appropriate based on facts in the unreleased IG’s report, because of the President’s long running campaign against McCabe and Attorney General Sessions’ perceived vulnerability if he didn’t fall in step, it has the taint of political reprisal.” She adds that, “if an obstruction case against Trump ever went to trial, there would be a large screen where the President’s tweets would be prominently displayed for the jury as evidence of his efforts to obstruct the Russia investigation, while a parade of witnesses testified about conversations they had with him preceding each Tweet.”

In sum, once more, a Trump-inspired stunt is likely to backfire. The politics are irrelevant to Mueller, who now views each of Trump’s antics through a single lens: Does this reveal corrupt intent to disable an investigation into Trump’s conduct? In this case, Trump leaves little doubt as to his motives.
Really, this man has confessed multiple times in public to obstructing this investigation--like, right after he fired James Comey, he was on TV talking about how he had done it because of the investigation into Russian interference, and it's only hit a new low with the McCabe termination. Similarly, he's repeatedly ranted in, uh, "private" about the investigation in general, how Jefferson Sessions recused himself and hasn't ended the investigation, and how various other figure in the DoJ and FBI haven't done what he wanted. I mean, jeez, he's probably ranted on the phone to various and sundry associates about all these topics, and any one of them could have recordings of these conversations.

The evidence that we've been privy to, just as the general public would basically sink any other person. In a better functioning system, this joker would have been gone with months of the inauguration*. It seems like all this could come to a head soon, and many of the likely outcomes seem...not good. I'm scared.

*In a better functioning system, this joker never would have been able to get anywhere close to the WH.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:45 PM on March 17, 2018 [49 favorites]


In a functioning system, the electoral college would have functioned.
posted by perspicio at 8:00 PM on March 17, 2018 [7 favorites]


The cracks in the façade of the Trump White House are becoming harder to conceal, even from quasi-friendly access journos like Maggie Haberman, who tweeted just now: "Most people close to Trump are still doubtful he will get himself to a place of firing Mueller - he rarely does these things directly, and he’s been talked off it before - but they concede he is becoming harder to contain."

"Harder to contain" is Team Trump's code for "impeding constitutional crisis" and/or "Alzheimer's aggression".
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:48 PM on March 17, 2018 [5 favorites]


In a functioning system, the electoral college would have functioned.

The electoral college functioned exactly as the system set it up to. Racism prevailed because racism setup the electoral college.
posted by Uncle at 9:02 PM on March 17, 2018 [58 favorites]


FWIW, I meant my earlier comment as "It's okay to talk about whether CA was effective or not because that doesn't really matter now," not at all as "Hey chortly you are obvs too dumb to know this but..."

Also I have noticed that John Dowd looks like Nien Nunb's inbred cousin, or maybe like a BBC style Vogon. Or like the result of that mating.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:06 PM on March 17, 2018 [3 favorites]


Brti Hume (professional blowhard):
What a crock. To believe this, you have to believe that McCabe did not mislead investigators, but the FBI’s own Office of Professional Responsibility claimed that he did and used that false claim to recommend he be fired. It’s all part of a Trump conspiracy. And I’m Napoleon.

Asha Rangappa (Former FBI Special Agent, Counterintelligence Division):
THREAD. As usual, @brithume has zero idea what he's talking about. To understand why many agents, and indeed even the FBI Agents Association *which is non partisan) have issues with this, you have to understand an OPR in the FBI. The bar for "misconduct" is very low.

2. The purpose of OPR -- the Office of Professional Responsibility -- is to investigate misconduct in the FBI. Given the FBI's mission, that means that every FBI agent must be BEYOND REPROACH. This is a tough standard, and one that all agents are held to.

3. This is, of course, a good thing. OPR will investigate, e.g., a "misfiring" of a weapon. It will look into any discrepancies, whether in your use of the FBI's database, or your use of your government credit card or your Bureau car or phone.

4. But every agent knows people who got caught in OPR's net, and it can be pretty brutal -- and it's why OPR is the bane of every agent's existence. ANY infraction, no matter how small, can be "OPR'd" (yes, it's a verb). And once you're in OPR's net, it's hard to get out.

5. To give an example, my training agent, and partner, advised me when I started to never, ever use my FBI credentials for *anything* other than official business. Why? He once went to an amusement park with his kids which offered a LEO discount, and showed his creds...

6. ...not sure how it got back to the FBI (maybe the person behind him in line reported him?), but he got accused of "abusing his authority." 🙄 He was let off with a warning because he was new at the time, but that's the kind of oversight I'm talking about.

7. It's also kind of kafka-esque, at least based on the people I saw go through it. Some didn't even know until they weren't eligible for a promotion, for example. As far as I could tell it was a very opaque process, and pretty much stacked against the agent.

8. I'm sure the process is designed to protect the integrity of the Bureau, and to not allow anyone to have preferential treatment. But to me it seemed like Reverend Hale from The Crucible -- well-intentioned, but sometimes able to be carried away by its own zeal.

9. To bring this back to McCabe, it's important to remember that he was not being held to the criminal standard for perjury, i.e., where "intent" would be a major factor. I think that would explain why his attempt to proactively correct things he said would not have mattered.

10. To put another way: If anyone in the current administration or associated with it were held to the standard FBI agents are in OPR, there would literally be no one left in the Executive Branch. "Not remembering" in front of Congress? Correcting your SF-86 10 times? Yeah, FIRED

11. So Brit would be wise to save his sanctimony because members of the current admin are getting a pass that no one -- and I mean NO ONE -- in the FBI would ever get. From lying, to abusing government funds, to associating (and hiring!) with wife beaters and drug addicts.

12. Also, keeping in mind all of the above: Do you really think that multiple FBI agents, as well as senior DOJ officials, would all conspire to lie to a FISA court given the consequences they would face? No. IMO the whole McCabe thing only proves that the Nunes Memo is full of💩
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:07 PM on March 17, 2018 [70 favorites]


haberman paraphrased: the president’s staff are not conerned about him firing the special prosecutor because they are putting in enormous effort to thwart him - but they’re not sure how long they can maintain this in the face of his overwhelming urges.

guys, just stop. let’s do this. we have been teetering on this precipice since the beginning of the administration. let’s just put our cards on the table and see what kind of country we really are.

open the box and find out if the cat is dead or alive.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:10 PM on March 17, 2018 [19 favorites]


So with CA and SCL back in the news, I remembered I have this conspiracy "crazy wall" diagram image on my desktop that was floating around last year on Twitter (full size jpg).

Like most of these diagrams, it's mostly crazy, but also somewhat helpful for at least remembering names.

Like, they point out the John Bolton Super PAC has given Cambridge Analytica somewhere around $800K, (although maybe not all in the 2016 cycle.?.) and the PAC's top donor is also apparently Robert Mercer. So hey Senators, please use that to at least rub some more stink on him if he's up for confirmation hearings!

Also re: Facebook, I hope they don't steal too much of the spotlight when regulators inevitably try to put some boundaries in place, because Google and other marketing cookies/trackers could provide nearly as much demographic data, which could be even more personalized if/when cross-referenced and combined with other big databases.
posted by p3t3 at 9:18 PM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


I've heard the research before on political advertising not being effective in driving choice, but is there any research showing how effective it is in driving turnout?

There is research on how negative political ads suppress voter turn out. It was Rep. Ellison who mentioned it during an interview, and I was intrigued so verified it existed.

Wikipedia A subsequent study done by Ansolabehere and Shanto Iyengar in 1995[5] corrected some of the previous study's flaws. This study concluded that negative advertising suppressed voter turnout, particularly for Independent voters. They speculated that campaigns tend to go negative only if the Independent vote is leaning toward the opponent. In doing so, they insure that the swing voters stay home, leaving the election up to base voters. They also found that negative ads have a greater impact on Democrats than on Republicans. According to them, base Republicans will vote no matter what (and will vote only for a Republican), but Democrats can be influenced to either stay home and not vote at all or to switch sides and vote for a Republican. This, combined with the effect negativity has on Independents, led them to conclude that Republicans benefit more from going negative than Democrats.

A more recent study (from 2012, "Keep it Clean? How Negative Campaigns Affect Voter Turnout.")(pdf) came to similar conclusions but isn't quite so cut and dried. There isn't a straight correlation, as there are many other variables at play in any campaign, but there is something to it.
posted by phoque at 9:37 PM on March 17, 2018 [26 favorites]


There's research showing that Doctors that receive free pens from a Pharma Rep are much more likely to prescribe their drugs... Of course messaging that targets your income, locale, profession, beliefs, interests, etc. are going to be devastatingly effective, especially when paired with limitless Russian resources, American political consultancy support, links to fake websites authenticating claims, served up to you from supposedly regular people in multiple rounds timed precisely, etc.
posted by xammerboy at 9:52 PM on March 17, 2018 [10 favorites]


heathkit: "The research you cited talks about persuasive effect on candidate choices. However, as I understand it, political judgements don't drive election outcomes - turnout does. For example, PA-18 went for Lamb because he got 80% of Clinton's votes, but Saccone only got 53%. "

That doesn't necessarily mean just turnout, though - there can be Trump voters who went for Lamb. In fact, this analysis by The Crosstab finds that a purely turnout driven win by Lamb is basically mathematically impossible. At a guesstimate, it looks like Lamb's win was roughly half turnout driven (both high Dem and low GOP) and half persuasion of Trump voters.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:56 PM on March 17, 2018 [15 favorites]


It's really, really hard to square "advertising doesn't do anything" with the squillions of dollars spent on it.

Also, another thing you can do on Facebook is buy an ad promoting a news story, which isn't the same thing as a political ad and definitely doesn't have that "paid for by" or "I endorse this message" tag. (I remember reading that Bannon's machine did that a lot for Breitbart.) You can also pay to promote posts from your own page (like a podcast bumping up a post about a new episode) which can be almost literally anything, and generally don't look like advertising.

It's good to be skeptical about psycography microtargeting woo, but propaganda still works, and 2016 saw a whole range of propaganda techniques being used. Just plain old advertising seems old-fashioned in comparison, and superPACs look quaint.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:08 PM on March 17, 2018 [51 favorites]


Apparently federal employee unions don't exist anymore? Or at least that's what Betsy DeVos would like to believe. The Dept of Ed has unilaterally changed the union contract with the 4,000 members of the local union, without completing negotiations and without having the union actually sign the agreement.

... I can't believe these people.
posted by suelac at 10:31 PM on March 17, 2018 [89 favorites]


few believe that any techniques exist that are "pretty effective" at affecting voting behavior

So one piece of my grad studies was doing a fair chunk of research into an area adjacent to this. I'm very far from an expert (and my grad work is sadly somewhat in the past now), but I think I at least have a good idea of the type of research that has been done and some of the main conclusions.

My own area was music preference, how it changes over the life span, and how music preferences can be effectively shaped or altered (sample link). Because music preference is relatively little studied in comparison to other types of preference, I spent quite a bit of time looking at research in adjacent fields, such as how political preferences can be shaped.

So the first major conclusion of all this research is exactly what you have outlined: Preferences of adults (political, musical, religious, etc) are very much hard-set and inflexible. There is really very, very little that can be done to change them.

The literature is filled with examples of experimenters trying method X or Y on adults to try to change their (for example) political beliefs with no significant result or very mixed results.

So, political attitudes of adults are fixed and there is very little that will change them.

Yet . . . people do develop political attitudes and beliefs--VERY strong attitudes and beliefs in fact. And, different people have very different political attitudes and beliefs. And any individual likely has a variety of changing political beliefs over a lifetime.

(One of my favorite little factoids about political beliefs is that an individual's political beliefs actually change rather rapidly over the years in response to their social and life situation. But almost no one recognizes this fact about themselves. Instead, nearly everyone retcons their previous lifetime political beliefs to align with whatever their current political thinking is.)

My point is: Various experimental treatments can be shown to have little or no effect on political attitudes. Yet, political attitudes are indeed created and they do indeed change!

So there is an inherent contradiction there. Perhaps it is not that political attitudes are unchangeable but rather that the means at the disposal of social science experimenters with very limited time and budget are not really up to the task--which is, admittedly, a quite difficult one.

Just for example, after a lifetime of experience, a complex emotional investment in certain political candidates, parties, and beliefs, and being embedded deep in a social web where your current political beliefs are working for you in various ways, it is hard to imagine any 30 second video presentation or twitter message that is going to seriously move the dial on an adult's current political beliefs. They're just too set in place and have too much context behind them for such a small, simple thing to have much effect.

So that is why there is plenty of research showing that things like political signs, political messages and advertisements, political mailers, phone calls, door-to-door contact, etc etc etc have relatively little measurable effect.

But on the flip side, let's do a little thought experiment:

We have a local nonpartisan political race featuring two complete political novices with no particular name recognition.

Candidate #1 raises money, builds a campaign apparatus, recruits volunteers, puts political signs on every block, spends hours knocking on doors and meeting voters, does several blanket mailings, attends candidate forums, and buys some TV, radio, and social media ads. All things that are "proven" to have "no effect".

Candidate #2 has the advantage of a political science degree and so is well aware of the research showing that all of the above is useless. So Candidate #2 saves a lot of time and energy by skipping all of the above. Why bother--they're all well proven to be completely useless! Why bother to campaign and all that when it's well known that adult political attitudes are practically set in stone and nothing you can possibly do will alter them.

It's science!

So Election Day comes and Candidate #1 smashes Candidate #2 by roughly an 80/20 margin.

Of course.

So what went wrong with Candidate #2's beautiful theories?

Well, all the things listed above are indeed pretty useless in moving votes given the vitally important context that both candidates are part of existing, well defined political parties and that both parties and candidates are using the same general techniques in a reasonably effective way to get their names and basic messages out there.

Given that both candidates are roughly equal in yard signs, campaign mailers, candidate forums, social and traditional media, etc, then YES INDEED each addition yard sign or ad or even in-person visit from the candidate is going to make a marginal difference in the outcome at best.

But that is NOT because those techniques are inherently useless and ineffective, but rather because they are being played out on a relatively equal playing field where both candidates an parties are able to get their message out with roughly equal effectiveness AND they are both fitting in to a relatively pre-set political system where people already have pre-determined political ideas and party preferences.

Not only that, but the system tends to find an equilibrium for itself. That means a lot of things, but just for one example, if Candidate #1 makes a big TV ad buy then Candidate #2 is going to try to do the same. End result is not much change on either side despite outlay of large amounts of money by both.

That doesn't mean TV ads are ineffective. It simply means that both sides have similar means at their disposal and a similar capability to deploy them effectively.

Within that system, yes, each individual messaging step you may be able to take is going to be make a very, very small difference in the final outcome--if any.

But that is very, very different from saying that messaging (whether tradition media, social media, whatever) has no effect on attitudes of those targeted at all.

So I hate to be all paradoxical and self-contradictory in my conclusion, but that fact is that this type of messaging can simultaneously have a pretty negligible effect on the election outcome while also have a pretty LARGE effect on attitudes of those targeted.

That goes even more so if it is not just a few isolated messages but a coordinated and multifaceted campaign: Getting people to join and participate in social media groups, share messages themselves, become involved in the process by organizing or participating in rallies, etc.

The importance becomes even greater when you understand that the ultimate purpose of the Russian interference is not so much to alter election outcomes as to sow division and discord while simultaneously undermining faith in our democratic institutions.

The results DO seems effective in terms of encouraging further polarization. As a fine example, look at the cesspool /r/The_Donald became. If something like 20-40% of all messages were Russian bots there, it's pretty hard to make the case that this had little or no effect on the overall polarization of /r/The_Donald and of reddit overall.

Whether or not this was effective in moving a sufficient number of votes in the election, it certainly was effective in moving the dial on a part of the internet where I spend a significant amount of time daily.

That bothers me personally whether or not it affected the election itself.

And I don't know about you, but for me just the simple fact that they were able to do this and get away with it for years does create that effect of undermining confidence in our institutions.

Who were they manipulating and to what degree where they successful?

The very fact that we must address this question at all is unsettling already.
posted by flug at 11:40 PM on March 17, 2018 [136 favorites]


Just plain old advertising seems old-fashioned in comparison, and superPACs look quaint.

I suppose I'd be undercutting my own argument if I claimed that this impression of quaintness and old-fashionedness is perhaps less a reality than it is a construct of the self-promotion of entities like CA...

But more seriously, yeah, advertising definitely has effects, albeit far less than the MBAs who direct all that money think. But its effects are strongest in specific domains, such as informing people about things they are already amenable to but don't already know. They are weakest in domains where people already have firm opinions, such as partisan politics. My own theory is that Russia and Brietbart's effects were strongest not with swing voters or turnout, or on Democrats or Bernie-leftists, but mainly within that domain of the already amenable and partisan: ie, making the right and far-right much more extreme. So the effects may be weak electorally (since those folks were already voting Republican), but they may still be significant in making the crazies crazier. But that's totally just a theory, and the more scientifically cautious view remains that, since CA and IRA operated at the scale of small-to-moderate PACs, they probably had commensurate effects -- ie, not too much.

(And finally, re Ansolabehere and Iyengar, or any other specific paper -- well, if you think psychology has a replicability problem, you should see how bad it is in a domain largely based on small-n observational data limited to specific geographies and times using a congeries of often misunderstood econometric methods. Not that there's nothing to learn there, but that's why I try to stick to broad theories that have been tested dozens of different ways over many decades and domains. But that isn't to say there might not be all sorts of well-established results in political advertising, turnout effects, etc, that I'm not aware of -- I'm by no means an expert.)
posted by chortly at 11:42 PM on March 17, 2018 [4 favorites]


I don't have any of the research on hand, but I feel like we're missing the important dimension of how advertising and propaganda is utilised in the communication ecosystem between voters? Am I wrong in recalling that there is impact when campaigning is supported by, I don't know what's the term now, people talking to each other? People have greater tendency to believe messaging coming from people from the same tribe, as it were. And a key part of this era of propaganda is the creation and existence of fake accounts that portray themselves as common people, and driving the conversation. That's where I've personally observed the insidious effects.
posted by cendawanita at 12:22 AM on March 18, 2018 [22 favorites]


But that is NOT because those techniques are inherently useless and ineffective, but rather because they are being played out on a relatively equal playing field where both candidates an parties are able to get their message out with roughly equal effectiveness AND they are both fitting in to a relatively pre-set political system where people already have pre-determined political ideas and party preferences.

This seems like it largely explains the effect Facebook had on the election: Trump was using it as a persuasive medium and Clinton wasn't. So we see a pretty dramatic effect there because there wasn't the pushback.
posted by Merus at 1:14 AM on March 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


suppose I'd be undercutting my own argument if I claimed that this impression of quaintness and old-fashionedness is perhaps less a reality than it is a construct of the self-promotion of entities like CA

I meant that there are more different kinds of ads, and they often don't look like ads, and sometimes they're not even categorized as ads and not included in that dataset. It would be way simpler if it was just superpacs buying tv ads. There's way more oversight there. Whether or not the new stuff is more effective, who knows. But it's not simple and it's not necessarily as well studied. The Facebook people have taken a year and a half to dissect the 2016 campaign. It's possible research hasn't quite kept up.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:15 AM on March 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


Way to go flug! I was going to try to make the same argument in a much less informed and eloquent manner: that whatever way in which these methods of influence have scientifically been shown ineffective, it must be a very qualified sense, otherwise candidates who make no attempt whatsoever to influence the election in their favor would regularly defeat establishment candidates who try.

chortly: But its effects are strongest in specific domains, such as informing people about things they are already amenable to but don't already know. They are weakest in domains where people already have firm opinions, such as partisan politics.

This seems to me like a pivotal part of it: the successful propaganda efforts seem particularly skilled at training their subjects to forget on command their previously-strongly-held opinions and values, or to fiercely hold opinions in such a specific and contextual way that future messaging is always effectively new, and thus achieve the "We've always been at war with Eastasia" effect: witness Trump constantly saying the complete opposite of what he's said previously, on video or in a tweet, with no consequences for so regularly provably contradicting himself much less reality, or the video montage above showing how when Obama offered to meet with North Korea without preconditions, it was portrayed as utter craven foolishness, but their viewership will readily swallow the assertions that when Trump does the exact same thing with no planning it's brilliant innovative genius statesmanship.
posted by XMLicious at 2:25 AM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Chris Hayes: What ‘Law and Order’ Means to Trump (NYTimes)
And this is what “law and order” means: the preservation of a certain social order, not the rule of law. It shouldn’t have taken this long to see what has always been staring us in the face. After all, the last president to focus so intensely on law and order, Richard Nixon, the man who helped usher in mass incarceration, was also the most infamous criminal to occupy the Oval Office.
posted by mumimor at 2:36 AM on March 18, 2018 [67 favorites]


From the same article;
In this view, crime is not defined by a specific offense. Crime is defined by who commits it. If a young black man grabs a white woman by the crotch, he’s a thug and deserves to be roughed up by police officers. But if Donald Trump grabs a white woman by the crotch in a nightclub (as he’s accused of doing, and denies), it’s locker-room high jinks.
posted by porpoise at 2:51 AM on March 18, 2018 [72 favorites]


On a separate note, the marketing company and the team working on Trump's campaign was apparently illegally made up of mostly Canadian and British employees. I wonder if that made a difference? I wonder if an American team would have worried more about whether or not what they were doing was legal under American law or less inclined to throw morality out of the window considering they were tipping the scales in their own country's election? Or maybe even just more aware of the rules of running ads in American campaigns in general?
posted by xammerboy at 4:32 AM on March 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Guardian article on the guy that got the psycho-graphic data was really good, and really made it sound like this was something that was (A) illegal (B) pretty cutting-edge in terms of what's been done before with political marketing.

Hi, actual former PSYOPer here (and, curiously, FWIW, a holder of the same type of visa as the article's subject): No, it really was not a good article.

It may be useful in terms of furnishing us with biographical or (ha!) psychographical details about Wylie we didn't have before, and which may or may not be salient to our understanding of this affair and its dynamics. But lordy lordy lordy is the writer ever credulous about taking PSYOP's own institutional premises and claims for its effectiveness at face value. She may simply be passing on Wylie's own credulousness, but it doesn't speak well for her ability to do independent reporting and separate self-mythologizing tendencies from information that would be usefully clarifying to her audience.

She fails, for example, to detect that "information operations" isn't some new, superdevious form of PSYOP, but a circa-1996 doctrinal effort to pull the Army's various electronic warfare, PSYOP, public affairs and civil affairs efforts under an intellectually and operationally coherent umbrella. If you don't know any better, this kind of terminological detail lends her tale an unwonted air of spooky black-ops mindfuckery. For the most part it's puffery, though, little different than what you might find strewn through any corporate mission statement. And in particular, it doesn't go to CA's effectiveness.

I make no judgment here about that effectiveness, by the way. I just want people here not to weight this particular article too heavily in forming their judgements. Though as an occasional Graun writer my ownself I hate to be so critical about a colleague's work, I basically thought this was a hot mess.

And it showed these odd patterns; that, for example, people who liked ‘I hate Israel’ on Facebook also tended to like Nike shoes and KitKats.

Did anything jump out at anyone else about the language here, incidentally? I'm not sure whether it was conscious on anyone's part, or mere pareidolia on my own, but it's curious to me that both "Nike" and "KitKat" are near-homographs of or mere single-letter transpositions away from perhaps the most common antisemitic slur. It seems lax of Cadwalladr to raise this "odd" fact to the reader's attention without also pointing that out — but again, maybe that's just my misfiring synapses making significance where there is none.
posted by adamgreenfield at 4:53 AM on March 18, 2018 [34 favorites]


On the effectiveness of Cambridge...

We know from Facebook that Internet Research Agency reached 11.4 million FB users and spent $100,000 in ads to do so. (This excludes the organic reach of their pages and user posts which reached an additional 115 million.)

Well, Trump and CA spent $100 million on Facebook ads. If IRA touched 11 million with $100k, wonder how many CA reached with $100 MILLION. In a race decided by 79,000 votes.
posted by chris24 at 4:55 AM on March 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Mod note: A couple deleted. We can't really deal with another Bernie/Hillary fight here; feel free to roam the archives though.
posted by taz (staff) at 4:57 AM on March 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


i don't think advertising has a lot to do with the outcomes in politics - the main conduit for political propaganda in the u s is fox news and am radio - they have been preparing the ground and persuading the people for decades and when it comes to am radio, there's really been no opposing voice

this has got to have a lot more influence than whatever happened with ads in the last election
posted by pyramid termite at 5:09 AM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


the main conduit for political propaganda in the u s is fox news and am radio... this has got to have a lot more influence than whatever happened with ads in the last election

Except we know that Fox, Breitbart, Rush, etc. were all coordinating/working with Trump. So I'm not sure you can cleanly and clearly separate them. The narrative pushed on Fox, etc. was amplified and reiterated by ads and the messages pushed in ads were picked up and talked about on Fox, Rush, wherever. It was an ouroboros of insanity, stupidity, and lies.
posted by chris24 at 5:14 AM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


This idiot thinks McCabe didn't take contemporaneous notes because he didn't see him writing them in the meeting. But I guess when you have the memory of a goldfish, the idea of writing stuff down once you leave is strange.

@realDonaldTrump
Spent very little time with Andrew McCabe, but he never took notes when he was with me. I don’t believe he made memos except to help his own agenda, probably at a later date. Same with lying James Comey. Can we call them Fake Memos?

---

And of course he's getting his morning briefing from Fox & Friends.

@realDonaldTrump
Wow, watch Comey lie under oath to Senator G when asked “have you ever been an anonymous source...or known someone else to be an anonymous source...?” He said strongly “never, no.” He lied as shown clearly on @foxandfriends.
posted by chris24 at 5:29 AM on March 18, 2018 [16 favorites]


I'm seeing the "Cambridge Analytica exaggerates its effectiveness" argument being countered with points about the possible persuasiveness of fake accounts, and comparisons of the respective budgets of CA and the Internet Research Agency. But as I understand it, CA definitely didn't engage in activities like fake/spam accounts. (If they did, that surely broke Facebook's terms, right?)

CA and IRA each helped the campaign, but in different ways. Jewel thieves may be able to steal a lot of valuables with inexpensive tools, but that doesn't (necessarily) mean that white-collar criminals can steal proportionately more by starting with more money, because they're not using the same tools. I could be missing something, though.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:33 AM on March 18, 2018


That's why I separated the reach of IRA, using the 11.4 million touched by "legally" bought ads, not the 126 million reached counting fake accounts and pages. The reach of ads purchased should be comparable.
posted by chris24 at 5:38 AM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Ooops! I apologize for my poor reading comprehension, I'd forgotten about the ads the IRA bought and just skipped pastthe part where you mentioned them.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:49 AM on March 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


So up above Bella Donna suggested encouraging and supporting the Guardian's journalistic efforts via a donation. I went to do so, but because I'm that kind of weirdo I read through the Terms and Conditions and discovered that they have some bizarrely Trumpian non-disclosure clauses:
GNM reserves the right to [...] Publicly disclose the identity of the contributor and the amount of the contribution
and yet
Contributors shall not be entitled to publicise their contribution or otherwise market themselves or any connected person or business in connection with their contribution, except with the prior written consent of GNM and then only if the contributor complies with any relevant policies, procedures or requirements of GNM.
Even more bizarrely, these conditions aren't mentioned in of all places the Privacy Policy which is linked to at the same step in the payment process.

I would say whether I took Bella Donna's suggestion to heart and donated anyways, but I may or may not be contractually obligated to go all Stormy Daniels on their asses in court before announcing that publicly.
posted by XMLicious at 5:53 AM on March 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


WaPo (Ronald Klain): I stand with Andrew McCabe
And what if McCabe did do something wrong in authorizing FBI officials to talk to a reporter, or while answering questions from investigators looking into the matter? Here is Trump’s second advantage: the fact that almost every person who stands up to Trump will, themselves, be imperfect, be vulnerable to investigation, have made mistakes — that is to say, human.

As Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt point out in their book, “How Democracies Die,” modern authoritarian leaders do not consolidate power by coming after wholly innocent people: They exploit the fact that almost every person with a long public career — those who could be a check on the leader’s power — has done something wrong, or something that can be cast as wrong, if scrutinized in a certain way. Former FBI director James B. Comey — fired for refusing to bend to Trump’s will — made substantial and hugely consequential mistakes in handling the 2016 investigation of Hillary Clinton. Rex Tillerson — fired just hours after being the first senior U.S. official to join Britain in sharply criticizing Russia — probably was the worst secretary of state in modern history. The list goes on.

They, and others, may well have deserved to face some consequence, perhaps even to have their government service ended. But, in the era of Trump, that is not the right question. In these instances, we need to ask not whether an individual did something wrong; the question is whether there is any reason to believe that is why Trump took action. In McCabe’s case, the answer is obvious.

From Trump’s own words, it is clear that he had McCabe fired not for anything he did wrong, but for what he did right: His refusal to pledge political loyalty to Trump, his determination that the investigation of Trump and his campaign continue without compromise, and his testimony to the House Intelligence Committee corroborating Comey’s damning account of Trump’s obstruction.

McCabe’s firing serves Trump’s purposes, whether or not McCabe did anything wrong. And every FBI agent investigating matters that Trump finds uncomfortable, every intelligence officer reporting on Russian efforts to corrupt our democracy, every career civil servant doing his or her duty in the face of political pressure has been sent a chilling message: Cross the president at your peril. He will single you out, he will harass you publicly, he will find a way to end your career. He may even deny you a pension you have spent decades earning through selfless public service.

This, then, is the challenge that confronts Trump’s opponents dedicated to protecting the rule of law from his political power. Standing up to Trump may indeed involve standing unequivocally with imperfect people, people who may have done something wrong — to stop the president from perpetrating an even bigger wrong, with an even greater cost to our system.
posted by chris24 at 5:54 AM on March 18, 2018 [88 favorites]


Except we know that Fox, Breitbart, Rush, etc. were all coordinating/working with Trump. So I'm not sure you can cleanly and clearly separate them.
I can’t speak for pyramid termite but I don’t think it’s a separation as much as ordering based on impact: those ads and the rest of the propaganda campaign wouldn’t have worked without years and years of Rush and Fox grooming people to celebrate nastiness and think of facts as a liberal conspiracy. The people who were surprised by Trump were all old enough to have developed their political instincts in the era where Fox News either didn’t exist or was a new development rather many people’s exclusive view of the world for decades.
posted by adamsc at 5:59 AM on March 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


those ads and the rest of the propaganda campaign wouldn’t have worked without years and years of Rush and Fox grooming people to celebrate nastiness and think of facts as a liberal conspiracy.

Oh I agree with this. Sorry if I misunderstood. This tweet from Dan Murphy at Christian Science Monitor came across my feed yesterday and summed it up pretty well.

@bungdan
The Cambridge Analytica Trump/Bannon/Mercer story is indeed alarming and fascinating. But none of this crap works if tens of millions of us aren't resentful low-information rage babies who *like* being that way.
posted by chris24 at 6:04 AM on March 18, 2018 [83 favorites]


yes, that was pretty much what i was pointing out - decades of indoctrination - if that's the only opinion you've listened to for decades, it's going to take over your mind

a good part of my generation has been hopelessly brainwashed by it
posted by pyramid termite at 6:10 AM on March 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


it's curious to me that both "Nike" and "KitKat" are near-homographs of or mere single-letter transpositions away from perhaps the most common antisemitic slur.

The Nike thing seems plausible, but I'd rather not trawl the message boards that would be involved in finding it in the wild.

Half a minute of googling suggests the KitKat thing is a reference to a chan/reddit "eats a kitkat" meme. (That seems to have morphed into a crytpo-racist thing by 2017.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:29 AM on March 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Meanwhile, in Russia, Putin's influence campaign takes a more direct approach. (YT video of CC footage at polling station outside Moscow today).
posted by pjenks at 6:39 AM on March 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


AdamSC and Chris24, thank you, that has encapsulated what I've been thinking. All the bot campaigns, the Russians, Cambridge Analytica, the NRA, etc. etc., relied on fertile soil to grow their poisonous seeds. And it was Fox "News" and Rush Limbaugh (to name the two biggest) who tilled the fields and fertilized the soil, so to speak. Russia couldn't have influenced our election so much if we (collective "we") weren't so easily influenced, "resentful low-information rage babies."

Count me in as one who was surprised by the election results (and frankly I still have election night PTSD), but I live in a kind of blue bubble here in the Bay Area - The Big Sort in action. (I think a lot of people who were surprised because we are so sorted.)

When I think about "how can we prevent this?" - I've been reading Yascha Mounk's The People Vs. Democracy, and there's a lot to unpack, but I think a mistake many Democrats make is seeing our opponents as dark wizards and we are helpless little muggles. I don't think it will be an easy process but we have to believe we can do it.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:39 AM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


When I think about "how can we prevent this?"

Though it might seem an unlikely source for thoughts on how to regain hope&stride, the latest episode of Russell Brand’s Under the Skin podcast is an empassioned conversation with Yanis Varoufakis on how we got here, and what’s a way out/forward. (Though ostensibly about Europe, the insights apply just as well to the recent political landscape in the US.)
posted by progosk at 6:52 AM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Trump rails against Mueller investigation, dismisses McCabe’s notes as ‘Fake Memos’

WaPo on the president’s (undoubtedly prudent) decision to continue his obstruction of justice via petulant tweets this morning.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:53 AM on March 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


DJT:I don’t believe he made memos except to help his own agenda, probably at a later date.

How is memo made?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:09 AM on March 18, 2018 [36 favorites]




He doesn't know what "contemporaneous memo" means lolsob
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:20 AM on March 18, 2018 [38 favorites]


Cambridge Analytica scrambles to pull Channel 4 exposé
Channel 4 reporters posed as prospective clients and had a series of meetings with Cambridge Analytica that they secretly filmed — including at least one with Alexander Nix, its chief executive. Channel 4 declined to comment.

Mr Nix referred the FT to Cambridge Analytica’s spokesperson when asked if he was aware of the Channel 4 report, which is due to air this week, according to people briefed on the situation. Cambridge Analytica’s spokesman declined to comment on the undercover Channel 4 report.
posted by pjenks at 7:28 AM on March 18, 2018 [23 favorites]


He knows it means more than a plain statement supported by the witness’s claim to remember it all clearly.
posted by notyou at 7:28 AM on March 18, 2018


The Cambridge whistleblower has his Facebook account suspended by Facebook

@chrisinsilico:
Suspended by @facebook. For blowing the whistle. On something they have known privately for 2 years.
SCREENSHOT
posted by chris24 at 7:49 AM on March 18, 2018 [48 favorites]


@GenMhayden (former CIA and NSA Director):
FWIW. I have no window into the objective merits of the McCabe case. And therefore I cannot judge that, although McCabe had a stellar reputation. 1/3
- I can say, however, if this were conducted under the rules that pertain to military justice, it would have been thrown out because of what we call “undue command influence”. 2/3
- The President’s frequent and visible comments and pressure on DOJ would have prompted a military judge to dismiss this as hopelessly tainted. 3/3
posted by chris24 at 7:53 AM on March 18, 2018 [82 favorites]


Finally at least one R is speaking out to defend Mueller and democracy.

Graham: Trump firing Mueller would be 'the beginning of the end of his presidency'
posted by chris24 at 8:01 AM on March 18, 2018 [26 favorites]


Add Rubio and Rand with some support.

@chucktodd:
Sen. @marcorubio on the Mueller investigation: “I remain confident that the Special Counsel is going to conduct a probe that is fair and thorough and is going to arrive at the truth and is not going to go down rabbit holes that are not places that we need to be going.” #MTP

@CNN:
Sen. Rand Paul says he “wouldn’t advocate” President Trump fire special counsel Robert Mueller #CNNSOTU http://cnn.it/2GDWqX7
posted by chris24 at 8:05 AM on March 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


Finally - a Republican with the Strength, the Courage to...oh it's Lindsey Graham? The concern...
posted by Cookiebastard at 8:08 AM on March 18, 2018 [35 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
Spent very little time with Andrew McCabe, but he never took notes when he was with me. I don’t believe he made memos except to help his own agenda, probably at a later date. Same with lying James Comey. Can we call them Fake Memos?


Aaaaaaand, once again, thanks for corroborating McCabe's statements, Mr. President! -- "I am being singled out and treated this way because of the role I played, the actions I took, and the events I witnessed in the aftermath of the firing of James Comey." "This is part of an effort to discredit me as a witness."
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:10 AM on March 18, 2018 [25 favorites]


Also lovely that he's hanging Sessions out to dry, again.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:12 AM on March 18, 2018


Sen. Rand Paul says he “wouldn’t advocate”

Portraits of courage, GOP '18 edtn.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:15 AM on March 18, 2018 [31 favorites]


Add Rubio and Rand with some support.

Ha, Rubio is using weasel-words. He comes off as supportive if he wants, or he can claim the investigation itself is a rabbit hole. Rand is only slightly braver.

What a bunch of craven assholes.
posted by Anonymous at 8:17 AM on March 18, 2018


Rubio seems to be issuing a threat. 'Take Trump but if you investigate any other GOP it's over.'
posted by lumnar at 8:21 AM on March 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Oh, screw Rubio*, Graham, and RandPaul. Republican Senators can say whatever vaguely concerned sounding stuff they want, secure in the knowledge that the House will never, ever, ever initiate impeachment proceedings as long as it's red.

*And screw Rubio extra hard for his loathsome "make daylight saving time permanent" bill.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:21 AM on March 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


I'll believe any Republican will take any concrete action against Trump, exactly when it happens and not sooner. That goes double for Graham, Paul, Sasse, Flake, Corker, McCain and Rubio.

There's a reason you always seen the same set of names first out in the media with the same almost-reasonable sounding quotes about oversight or bipartisan opposition or concerns, while nothing ever changes substantively. These fuckers KNOW they can get on TV EVERY TIME just by playing the role of Lucy, and they also KNOW they'll NEVER get called to account for pulling back the football for the 800,000th time.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:21 AM on March 18, 2018 [60 favorites]


Reuters: Sources contradict Sessions' testimony he opposed Russia outreach
U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ testimony that he opposed a proposal for President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign team to meet with Russians has been contradicted by three people who told Reuters they have spoken about the matter to investigators with Special Counsel Robert Mueller or congressional committees. . . .

“Yes, I pushed back,” Sessions told the House Judiciary Committee on Nov. 14, when asked whether he shut down Papadopoulos’ proposed outreach to Russia. Sessions has since also been interviewed by Mueller.

Three people who attended the March campaign meeting told Reuters they gave their version of events to FBI agents or congressional investigators probing Russian interference in the 2016 election. Although the accounts they provided to Reuters differed in certain respects, all threes, who declined to be identified, said Sessions had expressed no objections to Papadopoulos’ idea.
Gee, I guess that would constitute a . . . lack of candor on Sessions' part.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:32 AM on March 18, 2018 [49 favorites]


I’m torn about Sessions. He clearly fucked up with the Russians, and he fired McCabe ...but he also recused himself, hasn’t resigned, and is supporting Rosenstein.

I mean it’s a low bar, but if not for Sessions we’d already be in a Constitutional crisis.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:38 AM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


I mean I guess I’m saying he should go to prison, but I want Trump to hang.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:40 AM on March 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


FelliniBlank: And screw Rubio extra hard for his loathsome "make daylight saving time permanent" bill.

Loathsome? Everything I know about DST suggests a mixed bag regardless of whether things are changed or stay the way they are. By all mean, Rubio can go to hell, but can anyone elaborate on this reason?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:46 AM on March 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Today's DRUDGE POLL results show that 78% of Americans want Mueller Fired. (link to twitter) – I don't know the original poll and don't want to go clicking on Drudges' website, but it felt like something worth bringing attention to here.
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:47 AM on March 18, 2018


Always amazed at moments of sanity from Gowdy. And while on Fox.

@kyledcheney (Politico)
WOW. Trey GOWDY addresses Trump's lawyer this AM: "if you have an innocent client Mr. Dowd, act like it.”

GOWDY also emphasizes that House Intel Committee's Russia report is *NOT* conclusive about collusion -- only that they didn't get evidence of collusion from witnesses they talked to -- and didn't talk to Flynn, Manafort, Papadopoulos, etc.

"You don’t know what you don’t know."

---

And more on protecting Mueller. The video has much more than the tweet quote.

@axios
Rep. Trey Gowdy on @FoxNewsSunday addresses Trump lawyer John Dowd's call to shut down the Mueller investigation. "And when you are innocent...act like it."
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 8:48 AM on March 18, 2018 [19 favorites]


Rubio can go to hell, but can anyone elaborate on this reason?

I just personally hate DST is all. It's particularly shitty for those of us living on the western edge of a time zone because both dawn and dusk occur way, way too late.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:48 AM on March 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


I know that feel, FelliniBlank. Atlanta is about 30 miles from the edge of the time zone and it's barely dawn when I arrive at work in the morning. Sucks.
posted by Fleebnork at 8:50 AM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


talk is cheap, folks

when the time comes, you can count on the GOP to fall in line like the good little authoritarian fucks they are
posted by entropicamericana at 8:51 AM on March 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


i think this is a new low in “paragraphs written in a news article in a major newspaper about the president of the united states”?
Mr. Trump, who admitted last week that he made up a claim in a meeting with Canada’s prime minister and is considered honest by only a third of the American people in polls, stayed this weekend at the White House, where he evidently is spending time watching Fox News and stewing about the investigation.
just another weekend in a functional democracy.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:51 AM on March 18, 2018 [34 favorites]


Graham calls for Senate Judiciary hearing on McCabe firing
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday said he believes the Senate Judiciary Committee should hold a hearing on the firing of former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

“I think we owe it to the average American to have a hearing in the Judiciary Committee where Attorney General [Jeff] Sessions comes forward with whatever documentation he has about the firing, and give Mr. McCabe the chance to defend himself,” Graham, a member of the panel, said on CNN’s “State of the Union."

“I believe when it comes to this issue we need as much transparency as possible to make sure it wasn’t politically motivated,” he added.
posted by chris24 at 8:54 AM on March 18, 2018 [50 favorites]


"Americans" in the "DRUDGE POLL" link above appears to actually mean "people who visit The Drudge Report website and click on stuff," so perversely, I think, what might be noteworthy about said poll is the fact that the number's not higher than 78%.

Also DST is an abomination and pointless but if we can't get rid of it, and for some stupid reason it appears that we can't, I'm willing to make it year-round. But we won't ever do that, either, even though the swinging back and forth is the worst part. Rubio's quixotic distraction is doomed to fail, since it would mean lots of schoolkids commuting in the morning dark.
posted by halation at 8:54 AM on March 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


Cambridge Analytica and Facebook accused of misleading MPs over data breach
The head of the parliamentary committee investigating fake news has accused Cambridge Analytica and Facebook of misleading MPs in testimony, after the Observer revealed details of a vast data breach affecting tens of millions of people.

After a whistleblower detailed the harvesting of more than 50 million Facebook profiles for Cambridge Analytica, Damian Collins, the chair of the House of Commons culture, media and sport select committee, said he would be calling on the Facebook boss, Mark Zuckerberg, to testify before the committee.

He said the company appeared to have previously sent executives able to avoid difficult questions who had “claimed not to know the answers”.

Collins also said he would be recalling the Cambridge Analytica CEO, Alexander Nix, to give further testimony. “Nix denied to the committee last month that his company had received any data from [his firm] GSR,” he said. “We will be contacting Alexander Nix next week asking him to explain his comments.”
posted by chris24 at 9:05 AM on March 18, 2018 [35 favorites]


BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS BREAKING NEWS

22% of Drudge Report readers do NOT want the President to fire Mueller!

Well, he's lost the Drudge Report readers...
posted by yhbc at 9:10 AM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Today's DRUDGE POLL results show that 78% of Americans want Mueller Fired. (link to twitter) – I don't know the original poll and don't want to go clicking on Drudges' website, but it felt like something worth bringing attention to here.

That poll could not possibly mean 78% of Americans, because that would mean that a substantial percentage of people who poll Democratic actively want Mueller fired. Trump is unpopular - it's just not possible that far more Americans than like Trump actually want to see the investigation ended. If the administration weren't such a shit-show you could probably count on some percentage of right Democrats who felt that it was a huge insult to Our Elected President or something, but even then I don't think you'd get to 78%.

I mean, I bet something like 95% of US mefites want Trump impeached, and a substantial number of the remaining ones want him guillotined instead, but that doesn't prove anything about Americans as a whole.
posted by Frowner at 9:14 AM on March 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats, some big Crooked Hillary supporters, and Zero Republicans? Another Dem recently added...does anyone think this is fair? And yet, there is NO COLLUSION!


Sure is interesting how he uses a word that, when referring to humans, is normally reserved for describing criminals. Trump and the GOP have for some time been laying the groundwork for the criminalization of the Democratic Party; at the moment it's primarily rhetorical, as a counter to the entirely (and increasingly) valid accusation of rampant GOP criminality. As actual GOP criminality becomes harder and harder to refute, D criminalization will concurrently transcend the rhetorical. The difference, of course, is that the actual criminals will be in power to lock up the invented ones.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:27 AM on March 18, 2018 [67 favorites]


from the “when you said ‘family business’ i didn’t realize you meant family business“ dept.:

Kushner Cos. Filed False Documents With NYC

NEW YORK (AP) — When the Kushner Cos. bought three apartment buildings in a gentrifying neighborhood of Queens in 2015, most of the tenants were protected by special rules that prevent developers from pushing them out, raising rents and turning a tidy profit.

But that’s exactly what the company then run by Jared Kushner did, and with remarkable speed. Two years later, it sold all three buildings for $60 million, nearly 50 percent more than it paid.

Now a clue has emerged as to how President Donald Trump’s son-in-law’s firm was able to move so fast: The Kushner Cos. routinely filed false paperwork with the city declaring it had zero rent-regulated tenants in dozens of buildings it owned across the city when, in fact, it had hundreds.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:28 AM on March 18, 2018 [104 favorites]


The Cambridge whistleblower has his Facebook account suspended by Facebook

This isn't punishment! Instead they could have tormented him by micro-targeting him with interesting but already expired offers or events from local bars and restaurants that he has visited and or liked. Like they do to me.
posted by srboisvert at 9:33 AM on March 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats

Stonekettle:
You see where this goes, right?

You see where this kind of thinking goes. Anybody not of THE PARTY can't be trusted.

Logically then, those not of THE PARTY must be removed from power, purged from government, military, education, etc

This is how it always starts. Right here.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:35 AM on March 18, 2018 [111 favorites]


Skripal poisoning update from ABC: the agent is believed to have been circulated through his car's ventilation system. Also, disturbingly, up to 38 people were sickened.

This was by definition a mass civilian WMD attack, and we started a 15-year (and counting) war and destroyed the entire Middle East over the mere worry of less.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:49 AM on March 18, 2018 [104 favorites]


Talking Points Memo:
The Republican leader of the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia probe gave inconsistent answers during an interview Sunday regarding whether the committee investigated potential collusion between the Trump campaign in Russia.

[Said Conaway]: “We were focused not so much on that, because that feeds into the collusion issue, and our committee was not charged with answering the collusion idea, so we really weren’t focused on that direction.”

“No evidence of collusion,” Todd repeated back to Conaway. “But if you’re not investigating collusion, then you haven’t sought the evidence.”

That’s all we investigated,” Conaway said, contradicting himself. “We didn’t investigate his obstruction of justice issue. That’s what we investigated: Was there collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians or between the Clinton campaign and the Russians?
* GOLF CLAP *
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:54 AM on March 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


Why does the Mueller team have 13 hardened Democrats

He’s throwing shit against the wall to see what sticks. Even as more members of his own party back away from him. Everyone sees where this is going. Any Senators giving strong *defenses* of President? Crickets? When you’ve lost Trey Gowdy (R-Slytherin) and Marco Rubio (R-Cnidaria), you’re toast.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:02 AM on March 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


@HeidiPrzybyla:
Rep. Conaway confirmed on @nbc that the House Intel Committee closed shop despite fact it never interviewed George Papadopoulos, the key figure whose actions prompted the start of an FBI probe on Russia/Trump.


@kyledcheney:
CONAWAY says House Intel Committee did NOT conclude there was no collusion between Trump campaign and Russia. "What we said is that we found no evidence of it. That's a different statement."

He notes they didn't talk to several central witnesses.

---

Gee, I guess this explains this.

@christinawilkie:
GOP Rep Trey Gowdy: Don’t trust congressional investigations. “Have confidence in Executive Branch” investigations like the Mueller probe. @FoxNewsSunday
posted by chris24 at 10:02 AM on March 18, 2018 [24 favorites]


They didn't investigate anything. They ran a disinformation operation at the direction of the White House and blocked the Democratic minority from conducting any real investigation.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:02 AM on March 18, 2018 [73 favorites]


If you like this sort of thing (which I do) the 'you are not so smart' podcast has a new episode addressing tribalism, post-fact, politics, and more. It even has some suggestions to overcome the quagmire.

(As we know from experienced observation) it seems like facts don't matter. They don't. Full stop. Using tribal markers to frame an issue, then supporting with facts (academically) works. Fun, educational listening.
posted by j_curiouser at 10:03 AM on March 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


GOP Rep Trey Gowdy: Don’t trust congressional investigations. “Have confidence in Executive Branch” investigations like the Mueller probe. @FoxNewsSunday

Laying the groundwork for 2019.
posted by Talez at 10:05 AM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


I'm curious about the reporting on the Skripal update -- US media are covering it, and The Guardian is covering US coverage of it, but the Graun and others are not reporting themselves, and the Graun specifically draws a parallel to other times the US has mucked up terror investigations by reporting details being intentionally kept from UK press, in the wake of the Manchester Arena bombing. Those incidents led to some furore and a suspension of counterterrorism intelligence sharing; wonder if this will, as well.
posted by halation at 10:07 AM on March 18, 2018 [6 favorites]


The Guardian follows up on that ABC story about extra victims in the novichok case. It is of relevance that this was first reported through US media:
This is not the first time the US media have reported updates from intelligence officials about incidents in the UK. British police temporarily suspended intelligence sharing with the US after the Manchester Arena bombing in May 2017 following a series of leaks to American media.

The US television network CBS disclosed the name of the Manchester suicide bomber, Salman Abedi, citing American sources, at a time when the British authorities were asking media to withhold information to protect the investigation. Additionally, the New York Times published detailed photographs taken at the bomb scene that had been taken by British investigators.
posted by stonepharisee at 10:07 AM on March 18, 2018 [12 favorites]


god, if they were just a little bit smarter, if the could manage the slightest bit of subtlety, they could have closed the investigation quietly with a brief statement about not finding any conclusive evidence.

but their audience isn’t the public, it’s trump - so it has to be a big red sign saying that trump did nothing wrong and in fact it was probably clinton all along. anything less and they go in the doghouse with sessions.

and now they’re surprised and unprepared to defend these ridiculous claims to the media.

i remember when republicans were smart enough to pull off a snow job. this is just pathetic.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:08 AM on March 18, 2018 [25 favorites]


"Good morning, Sir. Welcome to the National Cheese Emporium!"
"Good morning! What cheese do you have for sale?"
"We're focused not so much on that, because that feeds into the cheese-selling issue, and our emporium is not charged with selling cheese, so we really aren't focused on that direction."
"So, what do you sell?"
"Cheese; we only sell cheese. The selling of cheese is our sole purpose."
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:08 AM on March 18, 2018 [63 favorites]


i remember when republicans were smart enough to pull off a snow job. this is just pathetic.

They don't have to anymore because supporters of the Red Team will swallow anything hook, line, and sinker so long as they're pandered to about being the top of some imaginary social strata. You know, the poorest white guy is still "better" than the richest black guy.
posted by Talez at 10:11 AM on March 18, 2018 [5 favorites]




Quick reference - "Skripal" and "Novichok" refer to the same issue. Skripal is the guy (and his daughter) who were attacked, and Novichok is the nerve agent used.

(throwing it out there for clarity - I thought for a moment there were separate events.)
posted by notsnot at 10:17 AM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


I hate it when you disappoint me, Wisconsin, although I should expect it by now.

And that news is especially disappointing coming from Milwaukee, America's most segregated city.
posted by elsietheeel at 10:17 AM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Hey now dont sully the revolutionary hue with these guys, that side is well and truly team brown
posted by The Whelk at 10:21 AM on March 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
Spent very little time with Andrew McCabe, but he never took notes when he was with me. I don’t believe he made memos except to help his own agenda, probably at a later date. Same with lying James Comey. Can we call them Fake Memos?


McCabe attorney Michael Bromwich (@MRBromwich, to you, Twitter) is not having any of Trump's nonsense:
"We will not be responding to each childish, defamatory, disgusting & false tweet by the President. The whole truth will come out in due course. But the tweets confirm that he has corrupted the entire process that led to Mr. McCabe’s termination and has rendered it illegitimate."

Bromwich's profile on his firm's website highlights this experience in his C.V.: "He has been a federal prosecutor, a special prosecutor, an inspector general, the country’s top offshore drilling regulator, the compliance monitor of major public companies and public agencies, and a lawyer who has practiced with some of the most widely-respected law firms in the country. He has been called on countless times – by public corporations, private companies, federal, state, and local governments, cabinet secretaries, and the President of the United States – to deal with issues and problems of the greatest private and public significance."
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:38 AM on March 18, 2018 [39 favorites]


Surprising absolutely no one, Russian election results are available.

Putin or Putin, the suspense was truly killing me.
posted by lydhre at 11:39 AM on March 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


To be fair, this looks like it was a (state-run) exit poll, at least they're not claiming to have counted the entire country in less time than Westmoreland county
posted by saturday_morning at 11:44 AM on March 18, 2018


"The Red Team"
It must be noted that the current party designations weren't established until after the 2000 election, and before then, the Democrats rankled at being designated "red" since it connected them with the Damn Red Soviet Russians. I have to wonder if the Republicans' non-reaction was noted by Putin's People in Post-Soviet Russia as a sign they'd be open to cooperation. Of course, for a while, "far left" political parties were self-designated
Green, but after Jill Stein's Russia Connections, it may not work anymore (and it's not easy being green). If I were consulting with the Democratic Socialists, I'd recommend they go Purple to represent a "for everybody" platform.

Also, I'm not so sure that "we know that Fox, Breitbart, Rush, etc. were all coordinating/working with Trump". The Fake News entities compete with each other as much as any Media entities (you can't say, for example, that Disney, Nick and Cartoon Network are "coordinating"). They all had common enemies in Obama, The Clintons and the Democrats, but they didn't all line up behind Trump until he was clearly 'the Great White Hope' and only Breitbart (whose founder specifically split from Drudge) had direct connections to the campaign. Rupert Murdoch specifically is a "Formerly Never Trumper" and the newfound loyalty of Fox, as well as the WSJ and NYPost is part of what is scaring most of the Congressional Republicans from being "too critical" yet. Still, I would support a full boycott of all the sponsors of all the Fake News Media (the Kochs made me tearfully give up my lifelong use of Dixie Cups & Plates years ago... which I know I should've already done for environmental reasons, but I'm from THAT generation, but I digress).
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:52 AM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Well I just don’t feel comfortable calling the “race” for Putin until we get results from crucial Waukesha Oblast.
posted by zachlipton at 11:58 AM on March 18, 2018 [19 favorites]


it is amusing how fragile strongmen are. RT has gone from forecasting 'record turnout for decisive re-election' to saying 'eh, turnout doesn't matter so much, lots of places have mandatory voting and that makes turnout meaningless, but hey! but look how low turnout is in the US! despite their brutal and drama-filled election, they only had 57% turnout! russia's turnout is always higher!'

turns out that when you offer concert tickets, GoPros, Apple watches and cars as prizes for voting, you can eke out a margin juuuust slightly higher than the most-recent US turnout.
posted by halation at 12:20 PM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Why the hell would Putin care about turnout this time? Did Navalny's campaign scare him that much? "Look! Elections in Russia are totes legit!" Dude, you're not convincing anyone over the age of 19. Possibly lower in Russia itself.
posted by eclectist at 12:39 PM on March 18, 2018 [1 favorite]


NBC/WSJ poll: Democrats hold double-digit lead for 2018 midterm elections. The interesting part:
Also in the poll, the most popular political figures and institutions are the Federal Bureau of Investigation (48 percent positive, 20 percent negative), Planned Parenthood (52 percent positive, 25 percent negative), the “Me Too” Movement (35 percent positive, 18 percent negative) and special counsel Robert Mueller (28 percent positive, 19 percent negative).
posted by FelliniBlank at 12:51 PM on March 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


Why the hell would Putin care about turnout this time? Did Navalny's campaign scare him that much?
A state exit poll put the turnout at 63.7%, down on 2012. Mr Putin's campaign had hoped for a large turnout, to give him the strongest possible mandate.

Reacting to the exit poll, his campaign team said it was an "incredible victory".

"The percentage that we have just seen speaks for itself. It's a mandate which Putin needs for future decisions, and he has a lot of them to make," a spokesman told Russia's Interfax.
not sure whether 'future decisions' is meant to sound ominous, but it does, in fact, sound kinda ominous. (it is probably meant to sound ominous.)
posted by halation at 12:54 PM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Also, I'm not so sure that "we know that Fox, Breitbart, Rush, etc. were all coordinating/working with Trump". The Fake News entities compete with each other as much as any Media entities (you can't say, for example, that Disney, Nick and Cartoon Network are "coordinating").

They compete for market share and eyeballs, yes, but they also form a media ecosphere, and ideas spawned in one corner of that ecosphere are quickly picked up and carried forth by others. The net effect is little different than if they were actively collaborating on what talking point would go forth next.
posted by kewb at 1:10 PM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Turns out Trump forced White House staff to sign non-disclosure agreements with no end date, and financial penalties for violation. WTF.

I'm fairly sure this is unconstitutional...
posted by suelac at 1:16 PM on March 18, 2018 [96 favorites]


Turns out Trump forced White House staff to sign non-disclosure agreements with no end date, and $10m in penalties for violation. WTF.

I'm fairly sure this is unconstitutional...


Obviously it's unconstitutional, but since he could only get people with half a brain to work for him, they don't know. It's pure mob-like intimidation. Sigh
posted by mumimor at 1:22 PM on March 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


if not unconstitutional, it’s probably a violation of the Presidential Records Act
posted by murphy slaw at 1:26 PM on March 18, 2018 [44 favorites]


It's pure mob-like intimidation.

The dodgy capitalist version of Omertà.
posted by Buntix at 1:27 PM on March 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


if he keeps trying to use his real estate playbook in the federal government, the next step is to default on the national debt and then try to sue everyone on earth who owns US bonds
posted by murphy slaw at 1:29 PM on March 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


It is noteworthy that the non-disclosure article was published under the opinion section. Even though Ruth Marcus has an unnamed source and a draft of the agreement, there might be something that doesn’t meet the Post’s reporting standards (yet). I would wait for further corroboration before taking the story as a sure thing. If it was a scoop, I think they’d publish it as a scoop, not an opinion.
posted by peeedro at 1:31 PM on March 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


probably because marcus was only able to obtain the draft agreement at press time
posted by murphy slaw at 1:33 PM on March 18, 2018


The worst part is that the NDA, this draft anyway, tries to give Trump the ability to sue, personally, if staff discloses things even after his Presidency, however long it may last, is over. White House staff are supposed to work for the public, not for him. It’s like if your boss wanted to make you sign an NDA he could enforce himself instead of one you sign for your employer; no company would tolerate that, because employees are supposed to represent their employer, not their boss personally. There’s something seriously wrong with anybody who thinks of the office this way.

I did not think it was possible to have an even lower opinion of Don McGhan, yet here we are.
posted by zachlipton at 1:36 PM on March 18, 2018 [67 favorites]


Also, I'm not so sure that "we know that Fox, Breitbart, Rush, etc. were all coordinating/working with Trump".

Breitbart was run by Trump's campaign manager so I think it's safe to say they were working for and with him. And we know from the Seth Rich lawsuit that Trump got access to preliminary/draft Fox stories and instructed Fox to publish it which they did. Were Fox and Breitbart working together? Maybe not explicitly, but I said they were coordinating with Trump, not working with each other.
posted by chris24 at 1:53 PM on March 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


probably because marcus was only able to obtain the draft agreement at press time

Maybe, but we can’t know that. All we know is the WaPo isn’t standing behind this as original reporting yet. This has only cleared the same institutional standards as a George Will column so far. Don't be Dan Rather’d or Gorilla Channell’d.
posted by peeedro at 1:54 PM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


Margaret Sullivan, Middle East civilian deaths have soared under Trump. And the media mostly shrug.
The numbers are shocking — or at least they should be.

2017 was the deadliest year for civilian casualties in Iraq and Syria, with as many as 6,000 people killed in strikes conducted by the U.S.-led coalition, according to the watchdog group Airwars.

That is an increase of more than 200 percent over the previous year.

It is far more if you add in countries like Yemen, Afghanistan, Somalia and many others.
...
“The media has unfortunately been so distracted by the chaos of the Trump administration and allegations of the president’s collusion with Russia that it’s neglected to look closely at the things he’s actually doing already,” said Daphne Eviatar, a director of Amnesty International USA.
...
Eviatar, and others who monitor these issues, not only deplore the deaths of innocent people, but also the government secrecy that has worsened significantly over the past year.

The Pentagon no longer reveals, she said, “even the legal and policy framework the U.S. uses to guide these lethal strikes.”
posted by zachlipton at 2:12 PM on March 18, 2018 [72 favorites]


I'm fairly sure this is unconstitutional...

The Federal Government prohibiting the publication of non-classified information in perpetuity is an extremely straightforward breach of the First Amendment’s freedom of the press.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:21 PM on March 18, 2018 [20 favorites]


TPM: Zinke On Saying ‘Konnichiwa’ To Rep: ‘How Could Ever Saying Good Morning Be Bad?’

(already-limitless capacity for hatred increases)
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:23 PM on March 18, 2018 [39 favorites]


For anyone who thinks that Trump is able to enforce these contracts in a private capacity... imagine if Congress passed a law requiring all government employees to agree to the President’s private NDA or be fired. Would that be constitutional? No. It’s no different if the President does it unilaterally. He is part of the Federal Government.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:25 PM on March 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Fun fact: As Rep. Hanabusa pointed out in the moment, "konichiwa" does not translate to "good morning." Had Zinke been paying attention, he could have learned both the correct greeting for the appropriate time of day, and the more important lesson that you don't just randomly go around spitting out the one word you know in a foreign language when someone mentions their ancestry. Instead, he doubled down on both the racism and the ignorance.
posted by zachlipton at 2:28 PM on March 18, 2018 [72 favorites]


How Could Ever Saying Good Morning Be Bad?

Great question but since konichiwa means “good afternoon” we can already identify at least one bad thing about this decision
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:30 PM on March 18, 2018 [20 favorites]


zachlipton: Had Zinke been paying attention, he could have learned both the correct greeting for the appropriate time of day, and the more important lesson that you don't just randomly go around spitting out the one word you know in a foreign language when someone mentions their ancestry.

What he basically said was 'Oh, I did not hear a word you just said, because I'm not really listening. Instead, I'm only paying attention to how you're different from me. Nothing else about you matters to me.'
posted by Too-Ticky at 2:38 PM on March 18, 2018 [49 favorites]


well he’s not the Secretary of the Exterior is he
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:44 PM on March 18, 2018 [27 favorites]




Kogan, who has previously unreported links to a Russian university and took Russian grants for research, had a licence from Facebook to collect profile information, but it was for research purposes only.

And where did one of Kogan's colleagues wind up after the thisisyourdigitallife app fiasco exploded, you may ask?

CNN: Facebook Investigating Employee's Links to Cambridge Analytica
Joseph Chancellor, now a researcher at Facebook (FB), was a director of Global Science Research, a company that provided data to Cambridge Analytica.[...] "Joseph Chancellor is an employee of Facebook. We are looking into the situation," a spokesperson for Facebook told CNN.

On Friday, Facebook announced it was suspending Cambridge Analytica and data scientist Aleksandr Kogan, Chancellor's former business colleague, from using its platform while it investigates.[...]

The nature of Chancellor's role as a director of Global Science Research and his knowledge of Kogan's data collection practices are not clear. A spokesperson for Cambridge Analytica said "there was no recollection of any interactions or emails with" Chancellor. Facebook didn't mention Global Science Research in its blog post. But Cambridge Analytica said Saturday that it contracted the company in 2014 to "undertake a large scale research project in the United States." Global Science Research was incorporated in May 2014 and listed Kogan and Chancellor as directors, according to UK government records. (The records show that Global Science Research was dissolved in October 2017.)[...]

Kogan and Chancellor were both at the University of Cambridge when they set up Global Science Research, according to their LinkedIn profiles. The UK government records show Chancellor left Global Science Research in September 2015. According to his LinkedIn profile, he joined Facebook in November 2015.[...]

While Kogan's collection of the data [by the thisisyourdigitallife app] complied with Facebook policy, how he allegedly shared the data was not. Facebook said it ordered Kogan and Cambridge Analytica to delete the data when it determined Kogan had breached its policies in 2015. Facebook would not say if Chancellor also had access to the data and if he was asked to delete it.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:53 PM on March 18, 2018 [15 favorites]


if he keeps trying to use his real estate playbook in the federal government, the next step is to default on the national debt and then try to sue everyone on earth who owns US bonds

He literally did suggest creditors to the national debt might have to take a haircut during the campaign. It was a moment that should have caused a five-alarm-fire meltdown of his whole shitshow. Turns out it was only one such moment and got maybe an afternoon's worth of headlines before everything moved on.

I still can't wrap my head around that one. But it happened.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:32 PM on March 18, 2018 [53 favorites]


Why Are White Men Stockpiling Guns?

Because nothing is more terrifying than imagining others will treat you as you have treated them.
posted by srboisvert at 3:33 PM on March 18, 2018 [145 favorites]


Schools shouldn’t arm staff because they’re full of ‘lady teachers,’ Alabama lawmaker says (Alex Horton, WaPo)
Alabama state Rep. Harry Shiver (R) asserted that belief, saying that guns should not be placed in the hands of “our ladies” — meaning female teachers — many of whom he believes are “scared” of firearms.

“I’m not saying all [women], but in most schools, women are [the majority] of the teachers,” Shiver, a lawmaker representing a district northeast of Mobile, told AL.com in an interview published Thursday.

“Some of them just don’t want to [be trained to possess firearms]. If they want to, then that’s good. But most of them don’t want to learn how to shoot like that and carry a gun.”

Shiver did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 3:45 PM on March 18, 2018 [11 favorites]


The article in the link that ArtW posted noted that a mere three percent of the population now own half of its guns. I can't help but think of it as a fear-and-racism manifestation of hoarding disorder when somebody owns that many guns.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:46 PM on March 18, 2018 [38 favorites]


I suggest, humbly, that anyone interested in the methods of propaganda and manipulation being employed by Cambridge Analytica and other “unsavory” political groups should go and watch “Century of the Self” by Adam Curtis. It is a pretty good distilation of a) the history of advertising and how effective it is (hint: it’s all about ‘soft power’ as many people have been mentioning in these threads) and b) how politicians, starting heavily (though it was used prior, just not in the same manner) with the campaigns of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair in the 1990’s.

It’s been discussed here on the blue many times, and the majority of people panned it at the time.

I think it deserves to be revisited in light of the new information.

The biggest mistake is to think that you are immune to any of it. If you are human, you aren’t. If you consider yourself “smart”, you might consider that you might be an even easier target.

Above all else, it’s not about controlling an individual. It’s about controlling the environment. Countless repeatable experiments show that if you have individuals in a group environment, they more often than not will not go against the consensus of the group, even if it goes against their own personal beliefs or reasoning. As social beings, in social settings, acquiecence to the norms of the group are pivital in decision making and rationalization. This is where some of the methods used by the IRA and other known bad actors was basically using the same tools that advertising uses in ‘soft’ manipulation to achieve the same effects. Force reactions instead of responses. Control the group dynamic by flooding the information channels (airwares, cable news, social media, hell, even billboards) with the message(s) they want the group to hold.

Another mistake many people make is thinking they are targeting individuals. They are not. They are targeting demographicly analogous, but amorphous groupings. They are targetting specific beliefs shared by affinities. It is easy to show that you can’t make someone believe a specific falsehood or truth. You can, however, feed them subsequent information that will be either incorporated or rejected as valid information. It doesn’t matter if you get them to believe the sky is a particular color. Just that you get them to accept that the sky might not be blue. And the “trick” of it, as we have amply documented in these many threads, is that is the point. You don’t want a solid set of beliefs. You want chaos, infighting, confusion, frustration. You want to keep everything and everyone questioning their own senses to the point where anything you do is suddenly accepted as just the way things are. Even better for you if you agree with the things they are doing, as you will then support all the lunatics making things worse for everyone.

The saddest part is that when these methods were simply used to sell us products, the majority of people felt it was harmless. Simply business doing what is in the best interest of business. When it crossed over into politics, it was seen as a novel and intelligent way to market politicians to the public in order to get them elected. Now we are seeing what happens when it is used to sow dissent and create disorder. The atomization of the population in to classifiable, contained, and controllable discrete mini-cultures. Orwell ain’t got nothing on this shit. And what is worse, is that “we” (the American government, society, culture) thought it was a good idea. We valorize the idea of Ad-men (a la Mad Men). We think it is entertaining that the history of advertising is so rauchous and debaucherous and invented so many ways in which to manipulate consensus through witty commercials or catchy jingles. Sound bites that become earworms where you don’t even use the product but you can name the brand.

Anyway, that’s my nickel.
posted by daq at 3:53 PM on March 18, 2018 [111 favorites]


Schools shouldn’t arm staff because they’re full of ‘lady teachers,’ Alabama lawmaker says

Only rampant misogyny can save us from militarized places of learning. It's like Australia introducing cane toads to eat cane beetles
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:55 PM on March 18, 2018 [43 favorites]


As Trump has been, by most reports, looking for an excuse to get rid of Sessions, it's worth wondering who those "three unnamed meeting attendees" are, and what they hoped to accomplish by leaking this to Reuters.
posted by neroli at 4:21 PM on March 18, 2018 [3 favorites]


@williamjordann
Just noticed something incredible watching this @theDLCC video of Democrats who flipped state legislative seats:

Of the seats Democrats have flipped, 61% (!) were won by women. Nationwide state legislatures were just 24% female in 2015 (@NCSLorg data).
posted by chris24 at 4:25 PM on March 18, 2018 [66 favorites]


I suggest, humbly, that anyone interested in the methods of propaganda and manipulation being employed by Cambridge Analytica and other “unsavory” political groups should go and watch “Century of the Self” by Adam Curtis.

This times a thousand, times a million. It's one of the most important pieces of journalism I've ever watched, with regard to helping me understand the world that I live in, in a fundamental way. His latest from 2016, Hypernormalisation, is a rather bracing, clear framing of the motivations of the powers that most control our world (i.e., the hyper-rich and mega-corporations, especially financial institutions).

This stuff is not frivolous, and is the water in which we all swim. No one is smart enough to avoid it, because it's not about being smart. These influences are too fundamental, pervasive and pernicious for anyone to think their way out of being strongly shaped by them. Extensive, immersive experience of mediated reality on a massive scale absolutely affects human consciousness and perception, thus our imaginations, and thus our culture(s) and world. It is the giant Achilles' heel for our wonderful, humanistic societies and aspirations, as amply exploited by, e.g., Putin and his mob family. Donald Trump is the apotheosis of what Adam Curtis has been researching, investigating and making documentaries about for almost 20 years. Seriously, check out some of his work.
posted by LooseFilter at 4:29 PM on March 18, 2018 [68 favorites]


wife spotted Hope Hicks and Sarah Huckabee Sanders trying to hail a cab on 17th St. tonight. they got one, then the driver saw them, said "nope" and drove off.

Turned out into the street and refused all comfort would be a fitting punishment, I think.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:39 PM on March 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


The Hill: Trump to release opioid epidemic plan on Monday that includes death penalty

Law enforcement measures include allowing the Department of Justice to seek the death penalty for some drug dealers “where appropriate under current law.” [...] A senior White House official declined to specify examples of those cases and referred reporters to the Department of Justice.

The GOP death cult continues apace. Note the vague phrasing that attempts to foist responsibility for executions onto the DOJ. Both the WH and the DOJ are attempting to work towards the Führer in moving things toward Trump's indistinctly presented desire to kill drug dealers, while simultaneously relying on the weakening of other institutions (see: militarized paramilitary police) to get the message and do the dirty work for them. This is how it happens/ed.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:39 PM on March 18, 2018 [26 favorites]


Schools shouldn’t arm staff because they’re full of ‘lady teachers,’ Alabama lawmaker says

Huh. BoJack Horseman is real life now. This is fine.
posted by Sys Rq at 4:47 PM on March 18, 2018 [18 favorites]


Leaving aside the monstrous nature of expanding capital punishment in such a fashion, this move would be clearly unconstitutional to my layman's understanding. The SC has ruled against states which tried to impose the death penalty on child rapists (and adult rapists). Unless TrumpCo thinks they can persuade the court that drug dealers are much worse than child rapists it would fail on the same grounds.

Kennedy wrote for the majority in that case and he'd write for the majority in this one. Unless Roberts or somebody did because it went more than 5-4.

Not that it would since there's no chance this passes congress.
posted by Justinian at 4:47 PM on March 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


Unless TrumpCo thinks they can persuade the court that drug dealers are much worse than child rapists it would fail on the same grounds.

Courts don't have much to do with this. It's about word coming from the top that drug dealers die. If the Judicial branch won't work towards Trump, the more direct administrators of state violence will take it upon themselves.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:50 PM on March 18, 2018 [7 favorites]


There’s already a federal death penalty for “running a large scale drug enterprise” under the Federal Death Penalty Act of 1994. It’s just never been imposed. So this isn’t unprecedented.

I suspect that trump is thinking of street-level dealers, though. I also suspect that he thinks they look like Super Fly.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:56 PM on March 18, 2018 [20 favorites]


The Hill: Trump to release opioid epidemic plan on Monday that includes death penalty.

This is not just stunningly stupid, it's stunningly out-of-step stupid. The whole country, including republican LEOs and politicians in red states, have come around to treating opioid addition as a public health crisis. Once it's white people in the crosshairs, folks suddenly find their compassion. Even VP Mike Pence approved* a needle exchange in Indiana, for Pete's Sake.

Trump may think he looks tough, but it just makes him look out of step. Sessions, too. And it'll win them no friends in the states that voted for them, they're some of the hardest hit by the opioid crisis. Everybody who works a blue collar job knows somebody who started with a back injury, got hooked on pills like Fentanyl, and spiraled down. Their life already got destroyed, now you want to kill them?

*begrudgingly, to be fair
posted by leotrotsky at 4:59 PM on March 18, 2018 [18 favorites]


leotrotsky: I think you misunderstand. The death penalty isn't for users; it's for dealers who, as every loyal Tr*mp supporter "knows," are brown people.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:03 PM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Remember, it's the drug companies who are responsible for the current opioid epidemic. These aren't street pharmaceuticals we're dealing with; they're commercially produced.

Obviously, this law won't touch them, but let's always remember that the dealers who are responsible for an epidemic so large that it's caused the American life expectancy to drop for the first time in history are commercial pharmaceutical manufacturers, who are killing people deliberately for a profit.
posted by MrVisible at 5:06 PM on March 18, 2018 [36 favorites]


Again, am fully in favour of death penalty for drug company CEOs.
posted by Artw at 5:07 PM on March 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


leotrotsky: I think you misunderstand. The death penalty isn't for users; it's for dealers who, as every loyal Tr*mp supporter "knows," are brown people.

I'm saying we're beyond even that fig leaf. This isn't the 80s, and we're not talking about crack. This crisis is so entrenched in our communities that folks just want help, for their families and for their neighbors.

And most folks got started because of their doctors handing out shit like Fentanyl like candy under the pharma lie they weren't addictive, and then making it worse by overcorrecting and cutting everyone off.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:10 PM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


As a slight aside, if we could eliminate "Get Tough On" from the political vocabulary forever that would be super great.

You know that Mencken misquote? "For Every Complex Problem, There Is an Answer That Is Clear, Simple, and Wrong." The "Get Tough On" mindset is that in spades.

"Get Tough On" translates to "I Don't Understand The Underlying Issues, And Can't Be Bothered To Learn Them, So I'll Just Shout Louder."

It's never worked, it never will work, and people keep voting for it, and it's just so goddamn frustrating. It's right up there with "Run like a business," "It's those bureaucrats who don't understand the way the world is," and "They're all a bunch of crooks, kick them all out."
posted by leotrotsky at 5:18 PM on March 18, 2018 [72 favorites]


These aren't street pharmaceuticals we're dealing with; they're commercially produced.

In a lot of cases they are street drugs, though. Mostly because the phenomenon of massive over-prescribing of opioid painkillers in the USA starting c. 1990's made an awful lot of addicts. State medical boards have gotten stricter about doctors writing a lot of scripts for opioids, so a lot of those people get hooked, get cut off when their doctor says "no more", and turn to street drugs instead (and THAT problem is getting a lot worse now since street dealers are lacing their smack with fentanyl and carfentanil and it's killing more people).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:23 PM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


Low information voters like Trump's low information 'solutions'.
posted by puddledork at 5:23 PM on March 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


"Get Tough On" is a euphemism for "War On", which, to steal a quote from Rocket J, Squirrel, "That trick never works!"
posted by oneswellfoop at 5:25 PM on March 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


@SenJohnMcCain
Special Counsel Mueller has served our country with honesty and integrity. It’s critical he be allowed to complete a thorough investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election — unimpeded.

---

And just minutes ago.

@CaitrionaPerry
From the White House lawyer Ty Cobb just now: “In response to media speculation and related questions being posed to the Administration, the White House yet again confirms that the President is not considering or discussing the firing of the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller.”

---

McCain gets results. Lol.
posted by chris24 at 5:30 PM on March 18, 2018 [29 favorites]


Special Counsel Mueller has served our country with honesty and integrity. It’s critical he be allowed to complete a thorough investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election — unimpeded.

I agree, John. If only one of us could, say, sponsor legislation to guarantee that the Special Counsel could complete that investigation unimpeded?

I guess we'll just both have to cross our fingers and hold our breaths.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:33 PM on March 18, 2018 [34 favorites]


Well. If Trump already made the decision to fire him (which he did at day one) then it's not something that would be up for discussion or consideration or even thought in this admin. Trump's just going to tweet it and then people are going to stand around with thumbs up their asses saying it wasn't discussed and it was all him while trying to take cover. (The Ty Cobb statement already reads as cover for the WH.)
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 5:38 PM on March 18, 2018 [5 favorites]


I just loathe the goalpost relocation services that we purchase, every damn time.

We can't talk about outlawing assault rifles. Instead, we twist thumbs over whether teachers should be armed.

We can't talk about agreeing not to kill people in the name of justice. Instead, we fuss about which drugs are worse.
posted by Dashy at 5:51 PM on March 18, 2018 [20 favorites]


Another vote for Adam Curtis in general and The Century of the Self in particular.

It changed the way I view the world - what I took away from it, as a core message, was that the right has weaponised the 60s hippy focus on individualism and turned it into a potent tool to detroy mass movements, framing “political choice” as “consumer choice”.

This has been the way that I’ve got through to some of the swing state Jill Stein voters (or their equivalent) in my life - convincing them that they’ve been tricked by a decades-long program of divide and conquer by the right, and that their preferences have been used against them - encouraged to use their vote to signal a wish, instead of using it for progress that’s less-than-perfect but real.
posted by chappell, ambrose at 5:55 PM on March 18, 2018 [65 favorites]


@mbsimon:
(Replying to Cambridge Analytica) 👋 I ran the Obama 2008 data-driven microtargeting team. How dare you! We didn’t steal private Facebook profile data from voters under false pretenses. OFA voluntarily solicited opinions of hundreds of thousands of voters. We didn’t commit theft to do our groundbreaking work.
posted by Artw at 6:03 PM on March 18, 2018 [49 favorites]


There’s already a federal death penalty for “running a large scale drug enterprise” under the Federal Death Penalty Act of 1994.

Man, your country is really fucked up.
posted by Bovine Love at 6:06 PM on March 18, 2018 [37 favorites]


Trump is a big fan of Duterte in the Philippines, who has encouraged his country's police to kill as many drug dealers as possible. See this New Yorker article.
posted by awfurby at 6:06 PM on March 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


The New York Times's Maggie Haberman has another report from inside the Trump White House: Newly Emboldened, Trump Says What He Really Feels
A dozen people close to Mr. Trump or the White House, including current and former aides and longtime friends, described him as newly emboldened to say what he really feels and to ignore the cautions of those around him.

That self-confidence has led to a series of surprising comments and actions that have pushed the Trump presidency in an ever more tumultuous direction.[...]

“This could be the manifestation of growing confidence,” said Roger J. Stone Jr., one of the president’s oldest confidantes.

Projecting strength, control and power, whether as a New York developer or domineering reality television host, has always been vital to Mr. Trump. But in his first year in the White House, according to his friends, he found himself feeling tentative and anxious, intimidated by the role of president, a fact that he never openly admitted but that they could sense, people close to the president said.[...]

[H]is closest aides say [...] Mr. Trump now feels he doesn’t need the expertise of Mr. Kelly, Mr. Cohn or Rex W. Tillerson, the former Exxon Mobil executive he made secretary of state. If he once suspected they were smarter or better equipped to lead the country and protect his presidency, he doesn’t believe that now.
In the past couple of weeks, Trump has been testing his limits - moving ahead on tariffs, announcing a North Korea summit, driving out Cohn, firing Tillerson, threatening Mueller directly, and now preparing the death penalty for drug dealers - and he has yet to suffer any significant consequences or encounter any meaningful resistance.

On Twitter, Haberman sums up Trump Unbound: "He knows he feels like he has power over other people."

@CaitrionaPerry
From the White House lawyer Ty Cobb just now: “In response to media speculation and related questions being posed to the Administration, the White House yet again confirms that the President is not considering or discussing the firing of the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller.”


New York Magazine Yashar Ali @yashar counters: "Lots of folks are understandably focused on the impact of Trump firing Mueller. But he doesn't need to fire Mueller to hobble the investigation. Replacing Sessions would mean that his new AG would not have to recuse and could oversee the investigation instead of Rosenstein."
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:19 PM on March 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


And then this weekend he seemed to raise the possibility of dismissing Mr. Mueller.

“This could be the manifestation of growing confidence,” said Roger J. Stone Jr., one of the president’s oldest confidantes.


Huh. Seems like Roger Stone is interested in impeding the Mueller investigation. Why might that be?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:39 PM on March 18, 2018 [4 favorites]


But in his first year in the White House, according to his friends, he found himself feeling tentative and anxious, intimidated by the role of president,
Altogether now, "THAT was him feeling tentative, anxious and intimidated?!?"
posted by oneswellfoop at 6:43 PM on March 18, 2018 [17 favorites]


@JeffFlake
Members of Congress need to be vocal in support of Special Counsel Mueller finishing his investigation.

---

You're right. Like a senator could say he wasn't voting for anything Trump wanted if Mueller is fired.
posted by chris24 at 7:10 PM on March 18, 2018 [47 favorites]


Speaking of Flake, the WaPo has a story about Trump and Pence both visiting New Hampshire this week speculating that they are shoring up support ahead of a possible primary challenge in 2020. The top of the list is of Republicans active in NH is Flake.
posted by peeedro at 7:24 PM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


She's a full participant in these daily microdramas, dutifully putting out the White House line undercover of the NYT byline.

Between furnishing the likes of Roger Stone, Henry Kissinger, and Reps. Peter King and Mark Meadows with a place to air their praise of Trump - which they know will get back to him - and allowing White House staff to send up trial balloons under cover of anonymity, Haberman is practicing the worst kind of access journalism. For the appearance of balance, she does let more pessimistic aides vent in her article: "Some worried aides are less sanguine. They view the weekend’s attacks on Mr. Mueller and the F.B.I. as a particularly disturbing taste of what they believe could come. They say privately that Mr. Trump does not understand the job the way he believes he does, and that they fear he will become even less inclined to take advice."

By comparison, Daily Beast is more open about publishing leaks without the Grey Lady's veneer of objectivity: Team Trump: Expect Trump to Attack Mueller More Directly
The president, those close to him say, is determined to more directly confront the federal probe into his campaign’s potential role in alleged Russian election interference, even if it means exacerbating his legal standing amid an investigation that has already ensnared some of his most senior campaign and White House aides.

Two sources who speak regularly with Trump said they had noticed an uptick in recent months in the frequency of the annoyance the president would express regarding Mueller and his team, and the irritation at the deluge of negative news stories regarding the probe.
At the very least, we can anticipate another eventful Infrastructure Week come tomorrow.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:35 PM on March 18, 2018 [21 favorites]


Replacing Sessions would mean that his new AG would not have to recuse

Elizabeth de la Vega:
Is it necessarily true that Pruitt wouldn't have to recuse himself from the Mueller investigation if Trump appointed him AG? NO! Indeed, a fair reading of the DOJ Conflicts Rule, 28CFR45.2, suggests that NO AG appointed by Trump right now cd oversee the Mueller investigation.

Here is what the DOJ Conflicts Rule, 28 CFR 45.2, says:
§ 45.2 Disqualification arising from personal or political relationship.

(a) Unless authorized under paragraph (b) of this section, no employee shall participate in a criminal investigation or prosecution if he has a personal or political relationship with:
(1) Any person or organization substantially involved in the conduct that is the subject of the investigation or prosecution; or

(2) Any person or organization which he knows has a specific and substantial interest that would be directly affected by the outcome of the investigation or prosecution.
Taking #2 first, is there a doubt that Trump has a specific & substantial interest that would be directly affected by the outcome of the Mueller investigation? NO! Too many reasons to list, but enough to say Trump has made it crystal clear he wants the investigation over.

Equally, is there a question that Trump is “substantially involved in the conduct" under investigation? NO! An investigation into Trump campaign’s/Presidency’s ties to RU & possible obstruction of justice necessarily involves conduct in which Trump is substantially involved.

That leads us to Scott Pruitt. What is a “personal relationship” under the Conflicts Rule? Would it only apply to, say, Jared? No. 28 CFR 45.2(C) (2) defines personal relationship as:
(2) Personal relationship means a close and substantial connection of the type normally viewed as likely to induce partiality. An employee is presumed to have a personal relationship with his father, mother, brother, sister, child and spouse. Whether relationships (including friendships) of an employee to other persons or organizations are “personal” must be judged on an individual basis with due regard given to the subjective opinion of the employee.
So, does Pruitt's relationship with Trump constitute a "Personal Relationship?" Quite likely, but we need not decide, because here is the definition of "Political Relationship:"
(1) Political relationship means a close identification with an elected official, a candidate (whether or not successful) for elective, public office, a political party, or a campaign organization, arising from service as a principal adviser thereto or a principal official thereof;
As a cabinet appointee, who's served as adviser to Trump, an elected official, for over a year, it's obvious that Scott Pruitt has a "Political Relationship" w/ Trump, a person whose conduct is the subject of the investigation & one who has a significant stake in the outcome.

Accordingly, the DOJ Conflicts Rule, 28 CFR 45.2, would require Scott Pruitt to recuse himself from the Mueller investigation, just as Sessions had to do. Indeed, it's difficult to conceive of any AG appointee Trump might choose right now who would not be required to recuse.

But, you say, well, that’s crazy. That means Trump can't appoint ANY AG right now who could be involved in the Mueller investigation. Since DJT himself is under investigation, that would be exactly the right result under any fair system of conflicts enforcement, wouldn’t it?

But, then you say, harrumph, no Trump appointee would follow those rules. Don’t give up so easily! They sure as hell won’t follow them if we don’t talk about them. So TALK ABOUT THEM. Tell the media, tell your MOCS's. Pruitt wd STILL have to be confirmed, so 28CFR45.2 matters!

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:56 PM on March 18, 2018 [62 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate: -- NV: Danny Tarkanian has dropped out of the GOP primary, leaving incumbent Sen Heller as the presumptive nominee. Tarkanian is now going to run for NV-03, which he's already lost before. The ratings guys didn't see this as having any effect, leaving both races as is (NV Sen - Toss up / NV-03 - Leans Dem).

** 2018 House:
-- CA-49: Some polling out that indicates Dems won't get locked out of the top two in this district, which has been a concern. It's coming from one of the Dem campaigns, though, so may want to take it with a grain of salt.

-- KS-02: Mentioned earlier, GOP is worried about holding on to this one.

-- old PA-18: If you missed it earlier, long analysis from the Crosstab of the PA-18 special election results.
** Odds & ends:
-- Iowa is wasting no time filling the vacancy in SD-25, left open by the resignation of the Senate Majority Leader - it's been scheduled for April 10. You can help out Dem candidate Tracy Freese here.

-- New Victory Research poll of the Illinois Dem governor primary has a tight race:
Pritzker 32
Kennedy 26
Biss 22
There's been some indication the GOP race may have also tightened up.

-- Maryland's Senate passed a broad automatic voter registration bill by supermajority margin. It's now over to the House, where the Dems also have a supermajority (this is needed as Gov Hogan has promised to veto the bill).

-- On the flip side (and mentioned earlier), the Georgia GOP is trying to reduce voting hours in Atlanta and eliminate early voting on Sunday before the election.

-- Oddly, still no word from either SCOTUS or the federal district court looking at the PA redistricting. It's getting really late for a stay, but they've both been quiet for days.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:02 PM on March 18, 2018 [38 favorites]


Sen. Flake: Members of Congress need to be vocal in support of Special Counsel Mueller finishing his investigation.

If only someone had the power to say, put forth some kind of document that would ensure the Special Prosecutor couldn't be fired, some kind of document with rules in it, like, what's the word, a law? Who would have that kind of power? We may never know.
posted by dis_integration at 8:03 PM on March 18, 2018 [54 favorites]


Man, your country is really fucked up.

While true, that provision in the Federal Death Penalty Act of 1994 would be struck down as unconstitutional if anyone ever tried to use it. Nobody has because they know it would fail.

If Trump gets to replace RBG or someone else on the court I reserve the right to go back in time and delete this comment.
posted by Justinian at 8:22 PM on March 18, 2018 [8 favorites]


Man, your country is really fucked up.

There is hope, friend! My generation and all young people are fed up and hungry to fix the everlasting shit out of this country through every means possible up to and including running for office.

We've grown up with 9/11, endless pointless war, a financial downturn from which we haven't recovered, regular school shootings, political obstruction and corruption at every level, no pay raises for the average person alongside cuts in programs supporting the average person, and cutthroat competition in the education system.

And the calculus is simple. Just supporting even the most modest of measures such as getting rid of assault rifles puts you on the side of reason. There is no nuance to what decent policies would be nowadays. An average person could give you an 8-year legislative agenda. We're also hyperconnected and able to organize. And what do we have to lose? Most of us are underemployed, overindebted, and broke anyway.

We're slowly breaking down and fighting back against the moats and assumptions the Olds have put in place and relied on. There is successful leftist media now. Marches in the streets (when the hell has that happened during our lifetime?). Single payer healthcare doesn't even seem like Commie propaganda anymore.

We realize the GOP doesn't play nicely, it is playing war strategy over democratic debate. We will engage them in their bad faith war for control, something I'm afraid big-D Democratic representatives haven't done as they have stayed within the old textbook rules of engagement.

Things are still Shit because again, we're taking on Camelot, and all the highest levels of power in this country public and private are well on board with protecting the status quo with every moat possible. But I think there are signs of great momentum and big wins on the intersectionality front, and we are part of the all-important Narrative.

I'm energized and emboldened, and confident about the upside we not only have but demand.
posted by hexaflexagon at 8:33 PM on March 18, 2018 [107 favorites]


@BillKristol:
If Freedom Caucus opposes the omnibus, then Ryan will need Democratic votes. And of course McConnell needs Dems to get to 60. You'd think Dems might be tempted to insist on a vote on adding an amendment supporting the independence and continuation of the Mueller investigation.
posted by chris24 at 8:56 PM on March 18, 2018 [34 favorites]


Or...you know...the DREAMers
posted by saturday_morning at 9:06 PM on March 18, 2018 [27 favorites]


Or maybe some more deregulation of wall street.
posted by maxwelton at 9:17 PM on March 18, 2018 [9 favorites]


You'd think Dems might be tempted to insist on a vote on adding an amendment supporting the independence and continuation of the Mueller investigation.

It's like he's never even met a Democrat. What Democrats do is give away the farm for free.

When even the Republican dark maesters are pointing out how inept the other party is, there's something fundamentally broken.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:26 PM on March 18, 2018 [13 favorites]


Remember, there are only two ways to talk about Democrats:
1. Democrats are losing.
2. Democrats are winning, and here's why that means they'll lose.

Seriously. We get this shit from the media all the fucking time. Do we need it on the blue, too? Preemptively, before they have even done anything?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:33 PM on March 18, 2018 [130 favorites]


re: The Tariffs - Trump's first negotiation was an utter failure, and it involved a 20% Tariff on Mexican imports in order to pay for 'The Wall.'

Lawrence O'Donnel's 'President Donald Trump's First Negotiation Was A Humiliation' | The Last Word | MSNBC 27 Jan 2017
That is not Mexico paying for the wall, that is the taxpayer of the United States paying for the wall
Trump 'feeling more confidant' these days sounds legit. /s
posted by porpoise at 9:38 PM on March 18, 2018 [2 favorites]


The thing is...that from the point of view of the larger scandal it doesn't matter whether CA's methods were effective or not.
The Trump campaign was in bed with Russian security agencies, who were busy breaking American law in the US to provide them with information, coordinating with UK firms to further violate US election laws, etc etc. It doesn't matter whether their efforts were successful any more than it matters to the law whether the hitman you hired was successful.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:25 PM on March 17 [27 favorites +] [!]


I see what you're saying, and in the sense related to guilt of the parties involved I agree. However, there is still a large issue of whether the collusion did change the outcome of the election, and on that question swings the decision on whether to challenge the 2016 results.

Facebook claims that their experimentation shows their ability to change voting behavior by modulating an individual's newsfeed; Cambridge Analytica claims the ability to target individuals based on information in their account, and Russian troll factories were reportedly capable to pumping out fake news that could be targeted to selected vulnerable individuals identified by CA to be in swing districts in swing states using FB's methods. This all seems plausible to me regardless of what academic sociologists might say.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:07 PM on March 18, 2018 [10 favorites]


Speaking of Flake, the WaPo has a story about Trump and Pence both visiting New Hampshire this week speculating that they are shoring up support ahead of a possible primary challenge in 2020.

Yeah, an acquaintance told me just tonight that they can't use the gym at their college all week due to preparations for the visit.
posted by XMLicious at 10:21 PM on March 18, 2018


They changed the voter registration information on the official USA.gov site to display inaccurate information. It used to tell you that you could pre-register at a younger age in states that allowed that or that voters who would turn 18 before the next election can register, but it now provides the incorrect rule "You must be 18 to register" for many states.

As usual, incompetence over malice is a good working hypothesis, but changing accurate information to inaccurate is pretty problematic.
posted by zachlipton at 12:52 AM on March 19, 2018 [93 favorites]


However, there is still a large issue of whether the collusion did change the outcome of the election,

Historians will debate this for decades if not centuries, assuming civilization lasts that long.

and on that question swings the decision on whether to challenge the 2016 results.

There is no Constitutional mechanism to do that. The only remedy the Constitution gives us is impeachment.
posted by OnceUponATime at 1:44 AM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


Pruitt wd STILL have to be confirmed, so 28CFR45.2 matters!

My understanding is that, as someone who has already been Senate-confirmed to a different position, Pruitt would have the technical ability to fire Mueller as Acting AG prior to his re-confirmation. But perhaps Mueller could go to court and cite 28CFR45.2 as a reason for his firing to be unlawful.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:26 AM on March 19, 2018


Punching and protesting Nazis. Apparently it still works:
Elements of the left say that antifa tactics -- direct, physical confrontations with fascists and racists -- are a "gift to the alt-right," letting them play victim and validating their paranoid fantasies about the persecution of white dudes -- but punched Nazi Richard Spencer says that antifa tactics have worked as intended, making it impossible for him to continue his on-campus recruitment tour for his forthcoming race-war.

Spencer's admission of antifa's victory was part of a long, dull Youtube video he posted last Sunday, in which he announced the premature end of his "college tour," because "When they become violent clashes and pitched battles, they aren’t fun," adding, "Antifa is winning to the extent that they’re willing to go further than anyone else, in the sense that they will do things in terms of just violence, intimidating, and general nastiness."
If only I could think of a group Spencer might like more that has been and is prepared to do things in terms of violence, inimidation, and general nastiness.
posted by jaduncan at 3:15 AM on March 19, 2018 [42 favorites]


WaPo, Kushner Companies confirms meeting with Qatar on financing
Jared Kushner’s father met with Qatar’s finance minister three months after President Trump’s inauguration, a New York City session at which funding for a financially troubled real estate project was discussed, the company acknowledged Sunday.

However, Charles Kushner said he turned down possible funding to avoid questions of a conflict of interest for his son, who had run the family company until he became Trump’s senior adviser. The elder Kushner said that the Qataris had asked for the meeting, and that he told them he couldn’t accept sovereign funds.

“I was invited to a meeting,” he said in a statement to The Washington Post. “Before the meeting, Kushner Companies had decided that it was not going to accept sovereign wealth fund investments. We informed the Qatar representatives of our decision and they agreed. Even if they were there ready to wire the money, we would not have taken it.”
Yeah. Very credible story. We would have turned down the money we desperately need to bail out our underwater investment. Right. This is concerning too:
Kushner told The Post in a January interview that he would have refused the money if it been offered, but the comment was not on the record, and he did not disclose that he had met with the Qataris after the inauguration. Kushner put the comment on the record Sunday and added details about the circumstances of the meeting.
Maybe a good reason not to allow convicted felons to go off the record so they can omit material details...
posted by zachlipton at 4:13 AM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


... he told them he couldn’t accept sovereign funds.

back in the day when the building inspector came around and, uh, well, hell, asked for a bribe - it was hidden/polished/made not a bribe by the suggestion that you go to lunch together. But, oh, I can't leave the job-site so why don't you pick something up, on me, here's 250$.

Of course, that would never happen here because Kushner said he turned them down.

He said so.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:19 AM on March 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


Just to tell you how crazy the right is, Trey Gowdy said something remotely sane yesterday. And now? Trey Gowdy, undercover agent for the left and establishment.

@johncardillo
Despite all of Trey Gowdy’s bluster and grandstanding, he’s never made anyone on the left face actual consequences.

It was all a show to placate conservatives so he could protect the establishment.
posted by chris24 at 4:51 AM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


New York Magazine's Olivia Nuzzi @Olivianuzzi introduces her juicy, insider-y profile of Hope Hicks:
I spent some time with Hope Hicks during the last several weeks. She declined to speak on the record. This is the result of interviews with more than 30 current & former senior White House officials, campaign staffers, & sources close to the president:

What Hope Hicks Learned in Washington: The departure of the Trump whisperer has left the White House in even deeper chaos. Which surely pleases some outsiders angling to get back in.
The article has a ton of insider detail that the chattering classes have been chattering about all morning. Its best reporting revolves around Hicks's romantic entanglements with Corey Lewandoski and Rob Porter, particularly how the latter involved private investigators spying on them and how their affair was revealed in the tabloids. In retrospect, it's remarkable how that gossip story morphed into a low-level security clearance problem for mid-rank staffer and then a full-blown security scandal for the White House that would go all the way up to CoS John Kelly and "special adviser" Jared Kushner.

Unfortunately, Nuzzi's profile of Hicks as a person amounts to only the standard access-journalism positivity. It's filled with sources from Trumpland, named and not, praising her for her loyalty, her good nature, and her character, barely acknowledging how she's managed to be present for so many events that Robert Mueller is now investigating. Nuzzi even writes, deadpan, "But she believed Trump was a good person, and she was angered that his critics didn’t seem open to the parts of his personality that would lead them to believe the same. To Hicks, the president’s policies were secondary considerations — the man himself came first. And at the end of the day, she really liked him."

P.S. Buried in one unnamed source's discussion about the difference between Trump's relationships with Hicks and Ivanka is this poison pill. "He knows that Ivanka has a separate agenda. Ivanka refers to him as ‘DJT’ just like the boys do, and Ivanka understands that her father is gonna be dead in ten years."
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:30 AM on March 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


Ugh, Nuzzi also wrote that Kellyanne Conway is a Star article. The flames on the side of my face continue.
posted by armacy at 5:51 AM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


she believed Trump was a good person

I just... how?!
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:05 AM on March 19, 2018 [42 favorites]


The Federal Government prohibiting the publication of non-classified information in perpetuity is an extremely straightforward breach of the First Amendment’s freedom of the press.

It's not a law that constrains the press. It is a confidentiality contract voluntarily entered as terms of employment, with financial penalties that survive after employment. Lots of people have to sign such contracts. For example, your doctor's office staff.

It is not obviously unconstitutional re. the first amendment.
posted by ryanrs at 6:10 AM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Elements of the left say that antifa tactics -- direct, physical confrontations with fascists and racists -- are a "gift to the alt-right," letting them play victim and validating their paranoid fantasies about the persecution of white dudes -- but punched Nazi Richard Spencer says that antifa tactics have worked as intended, making it impossible for him to continue his on-campus recruitment tour for his forthcoming race-war.

Spencer's admission of antifa's victory was part of a long, dull Youtube video he posted last Sunday, in which he announced the premature end of his "college tour," because "When they become violent clashes and pitched battles, they aren’t fun," adding, "Antifa is winning to the extent that they’re willing to go further than anyone else, in the sense that they will do things in terms of just violence, intimidating, and general nastiness."


I do not believe anything scumsnakes like Spencer say, even if it is something I want to hear. Antifa is willing to go further than anyone else in terms of violence is a straight up lie when white supremacists are out there shooting at people and murdering people with cars. This just sounds like posturing to make antifa into the bogeyman. His tour is more likely canceled because he is a dim, uninteresting loser bigot that nobody wants to listen to. The reason we are beating him is because antifa is more united against him than any of his meager number of supporters is united for him.
posted by Regal Ox Inigo at 6:11 AM on March 19, 2018 [64 favorites]


she believed Trump was a good person

I just... how?!


Possibly because he flirts in that creepy, faux gallant way that grim old dudes use with women young enough to be their granddaughters who they want to fuck but for some reason can't get away with abusing directly... and she takes it as kindness.
posted by doornoise at 6:12 AM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


she believed Trump was a good person

I just... how?!


Stupid and vile. And I've come to believe you need to be both to be a Trump true believer. He's so manifestly awful that even the stupidest person would be repulsed if they weren't also a terrible person. And no matter how vile someone is, if they're not stupid they know he's a fucking incompetent idiot.

Which isn't to say vile people won't take advantage of the situation to further their own ends, but they're not true believers.
posted by chris24 at 6:14 AM on March 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


I do not believe anything scumsnakes like Spencer say, even if it is something I want to hear. Antifa is willing to go further than anyone else in terms of violence is a straight up lie when white supremacists are out there shooting at people and murdering people with cars. This just sounds like posturing to make antifa into the bogeyman. His tour is more likely canceled because he is a dim, uninteresting loser bigot that nobody wants to listen to. The reason we are beating him is because antifa is more united against him than any of his meager number of supporters is united for him.

Nor do I, as indicated by my snark about it. That said, I would be astonished if it is not now very hard to him to book venues and/or pay security costs, and that is a product of the conflict that counter-protesting causes...and claiming to be one of the ubermensch whilst repeatedly losing at street confrontation is not exactly the image fascists go for.

So, yeah. All of the above.
posted by jaduncan at 6:17 AM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


To me, the most significant part of Nuzzi’s article, at least with longstanding meaning in future scandals, is the Daily Mail stuff of private investigators following around Hicks. None of that is normal.
posted by zachlipton at 6:26 AM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Lots of people have to sign such contracts. For example, your doctor's office staff.

My doctor's office is not part of the Federal Government and does not have obligations under the First Amendment. The Executive Office of the President does have those obligations. Here's a summary of first amendment rights of government employees. It would seem that ex-employees who are necessarily acting as private citizens have even greater rights.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:31 AM on March 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


Ugh, Nuzzi also wrote that Kellyanne Conway is a Star article.

But she is a star!

He's so manifestly awful that even the stupidest person would be repulsed if they weren't also a terrible person. And no matter how vile someone is, if they're not stupid they know he's a fucking incompetent idiot.

If all your media comes from an alternate universe and everyone around you is saying the same thing and you've been raised in a culture that teaches you to plug your fingers firmly in your ears when it comes to the humanity of marginalized communities, well, you don't have to be innately stupid nor vile to possess stupid, vile beliefs. Except you don't think those beliefs are stupid and vile, you think they're what good, sane, decent Americans believe, as opposed to Them and Their beliefs.

And lest someone think I'm headed towards bothsidesism . . . the tribalism is similar on both sides, but the facts certainly are not.
posted by Anonymous at 6:32 AM on March 19, 2018


It's not a law that constrains the press. It is a confidentiality contract voluntarily entered as terms of employment, with financial penalties that survive after employment. Lots of people have to sign such contracts. For example, your doctor's office staff.

My doctor’s office is not a state actor. A blanket non-disclosure agreement as a requirement for a government job (with the United States explicitly named as a party) is pretty plainly prior restraint, which is unconstitutional.
posted by stopgap at 6:34 AM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


It is a confidentiality contract voluntarily entered as terms of employment, with financial penalties that survive after employment. Lots of people have to sign such contracts.

It's a private agreement with Trump signed as a condition of employment with the Federal Government. That's highly irregular, and probably illegal.

If it was an agreement acknowledging understanding of executive privilege, the classification system, and associated laws, regulations, and penalties, that'd be one thing. A side agreement inuring to the benefit of Trump is quite another. I don't see how it's legally much different from handing him an envelope full of cash in exchange for the job.

There are probably also first amendment issues involved, but I doubt it's necessary to bring them up in order to invalidate the NDA.
posted by dirge at 6:35 AM on March 19, 2018 [25 favorites]


@krassenstein:
Just in case you were wondering...

Mentions of 'Rosenstein' from Russian Twitter bots are up 2000% according to Hamilton diagnostic.

If there is any question about what's going to happen, there shouldn't be.

posted by Artw at 6:41 AM on March 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


If all your media comes from an alternate universe and everyone around you is saying the same thing and you've been raised in a culture that teaches you to plug your fingers firmly in your ears when it comes to the humanity of marginalized communities, well, you don't have to be innately stupid nor vile to possess stupid, vile beliefs. Except you don't think those beliefs are stupid and vile, you think they're what good, sane, decent Americans believe, as opposed to Them and Their beliefs.

I grew up in South Dakota in a Republican evangelical household. My best friend went to Hillsdale College as did his brother and father. I was a Republican for years. I understand the world you're referring to and while I can kinda rationalize staying Republican given what you say during previous incarnations of Republicanism, with Trumpism the veil is off. They literally celebrate being deplorable, constantly talk about virtue signaling which is an implicit admission that what we do is virtuous and what they do is not, and are overtly racist, fascist, bigoted and enjoy it - see Bannon's recent comments. There are no excuses. They are vile and stupid.
posted by chris24 at 6:45 AM on March 19, 2018 [56 favorites]


I do not believe anything scumsnakes like Spencer say, even if it is something I want to hear. Antifa is willing to go further than anyone else in terms of violence is a straight up lie when white supremacists are out there shooting at people and murdering people with cars. This just sounds like posturing to make antifa into the bogeyman. His tour is more likely canceled because he is a dim, uninteresting loser bigot that nobody wants to listen to. The reason we are beating him is because antifa is more united against him than any of his meager number of supporters is united for him.

Okay, actually I do basically believe Spencer, although I think there's some incorrect conclusions one can draw from his speech.

1. I have been on the periphery of nazi-punching circles for most of my teen-to-adult life, although I myself am a coward and kind of politically soft and have done little more than show up for large events or stand on the edge of things. Here in MPLS, we've run off generations of organized white supremacists through punching and other forms of militant protest. My point is not "oh, MPLS is an anti-racist utopia", because it's actually a pretty racist place with completely garbage policing. But even in this racist place with garbage policing, it has been tough for organized white supremacists to get a foothold.

2. This is different from other parts of the state. IMO, punching and inconvenience will run off white supremacists who are hobbyists and don't have a lot of state power. In a relatively wealthy, sorta-socially-liberal city like MPLS, the bulk of active white supremacists will be hobbyists, and they have little chance of capturing the government offices.

3. Again IMO, punching and inconvenience have worked against Spencer et all because they are hobbyists and grafters. That's not to say that they don't believe their beliefs, but that they are motivated substantially by the chance to make a buck and the charge they get out of attacking people who can't really hit back, especially attacking people as demonized in the US press as left activists and college students. If it weren't for the graft and the fun, they wouldn't bother; they'd just be racists in their private lives.

4. If you're faced with people who are either desperate, socialized into more committed white supremacy over generations or enmeshed in local power structures (either government or informal "big man" situations) you won't be able to punch them away. The Greensboro activists were facing this type of person and tragically underestimated them.

5. The wrong lesson to take from Spencer would be "punching is sufficient to deal with white supremacists and is always the best tactic". The right lesson would be, "figure out what kind of white supremacists you're dealing with, and if they are the kind who can be dissuaded through punching and inconvenience, use that".

6. IMO, it is worth dissuading any white supremacists you can dissuade; there's no "well, these are lightweights, why are you bothering to punch them". If you can get rid of a diffuse network of grafters and hobbyists, you should do so.

7. Charlottesville and so on: The crest of violence that happened last year (god willing it's a crest, anyway) happened because it was easy and fun for casual white supremacists to get together for punch-fests. The more they can meet up and the easier and funner it is for them, the more they want to do it.

What should chill us all about Charlottesville is that they had a plan to reeve through the town beating (and probably killing, since I don't think they're bright enough to stop) anyone they could catch. What happened to Deandre Harris was what was supposed to happen to a lot of other people. The fact that they were blocked from breaking up into smaller bands is what prevented this. Consider that this was a town de facto without police and with a huge number of pumped up, armed white men desperate to impress each other - we are damn lucky that there was very large and militant opposition, because those people were gunning for another Tulsa or Rosewood. In a better world, the damn fools who ran the city would be in prison today for running the risk.

What would things look like today if, instead of a conflict with one death, it had been a day of unchecked beatings and murder across the city? What would it look like if white supremacist fanboys had been able to pull that off? They would be enormously impressed with themselves and desperate to do it again.

8. Social change comes from leveraging multiple forces and tactics, because we are confronted with multiple forces and tactics. Punching Nazis doesn't solve all or even most problems, but it seems like it solves the problem of hobbyist Nazis.

9. In my opinion, hobbyist Naziism is the medium in which worse can grow.
posted by Frowner at 6:45 AM on March 19, 2018 [134 favorites]


There’s no question about what Trump wants to happen. There remains a question about whether he can be persuaded that it’s a bad strategy that will lead to dangerous failure. DoJ staff and the courts could work together to ensure Mueller’s investigation continues.

But it’s perfectly possible at any moment that our President tries to fire the Special Counsel who is investigating him for felonies, by tweet, and everyone should be alarmed about this.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:46 AM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


It's a private agreement with Trump signed as a condition of employment with the Federal Government. That's highly irregular, and probably illegal...There are probably also first amendment issues involved, but I doubt it's necessary to bring them up in order to invalidate the NDA.

My immediate reaction as well. I'd have to think about precisely why, but private side agreements that seek to condition public service aren't compatible with the whole Constitutional design of the government and the balance of powers. Just look at the oath public officials take -- protect and defend the Constitution, not the President's reputation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:47 AM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Just to tell you how crazy the right is, Trey Gowdy said something remotely sane yesterday. And now? Trey Gowdy, undercover agent for the left and establishment.

And yet it's completely consistent with their worldview. Hillary is obviously guilty of dozens of felonies including treason, so when Gowdy says "let's stick with evidence-based accusations," Gowdy is Deep State. Sessions says "We don't have a factual basis to prosecute Hillary," so Sessions is Deep State. Anyone who does not drink the tribal Kool-Aid is Deep State, and they have Fox talking heads and radio drones reciting to them day after day that the conspiracy is real and growing by the day.

What I would like these people to be open and direct about is that once they Smash the Deep State, what would they replace it with that would be even remotely Constitutional? And it's not a coincidence that Sean Hannity's radio show has advertisements for Article V Convention of States petitions.
posted by delfin at 6:48 AM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


The entire appeal of Trump is that he “owns the libs”, primarily by breaking stuff. He’s not doing anything else for anyone so it’s difficult to see his appeal coming from a good place.
posted by Artw at 6:49 AM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


> They know. They don't care. They are vile and stupid.

And of course, we up here in Canada are following along in the U.S.'s wake. Yesterday my brother in law showed me a photo he took of a pickup truck in Sarnia on Saturday, which was sporting a Confederate flag sticker and one of those peel-off decals reading (paraphrasing slightly from memory) "IT'S MERRY CHRISTMAS, NOT HAPPY HOLIDAYS - IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT, THERE ARE DAILY FLIGHTS OUT OF HERE." This is the beginning of the pushback to what little progress we have made as a society, and I will honestly be (pleasantly) surprised if it does not become violent pushback both here and in the U.S. in the not-too-distant future.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:54 AM on March 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


DoJ staff and the courts could work together to ensure Mueller’s investigation continues.

They really can't. The scenario where Trump fires Mueller necessarily involves a new AG to oversee the investigation, who would be the one doing the actual firing. Trump cannot fire Mueller directly.

If Mueller goes, it will be because a new boss at DOJ fired him. I guess techincally there could be a scenario where Mueller the man is fired and a new person appointed by a new AG to continue the investigation, but there's no rationale for that other than superficially appeasing Trump, and just replacing the head will not satisfy him, he wants the Russia investigation ended, and an affirmative statement clearing him of all wrongdoing. Replacing Mueller irrevocably taints the investigation.

The only way to protect Mueller is for Congress to act with legislation affirming his total independence from the office of the President. Which they will not do.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:55 AM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


According to Federal Regulations, Mueller can only be fired with cause. A court could find that cause unjust. They could also find that the new Acting AG is disqualified from overseeing Mueller due to their political connection to the suspect (28CFR45.2 mentioned above).
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:03 AM on March 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


there's no rationale for that other than superficially appeasing Trump, and just replacing the head will not satisfy him, he wants the Russia investigation ended, and an affirmative statement clearing him of all wrongdoing. Replacing Mueller irrevocably taints the investigation.

I suppose that depends on how servile and corrupt such a replacement would be. A pliant enough ringer might be willing to spike the investigation, and then disappear back into the corporate bar. It might be more survivable than a plain old Saturday Night Massacre, but Rosenstein would have to go along.But at this point I'd expect that would cause DoJ and the FBI to start leaking like a sieve. Or maybe just go to Congress as whistleblowers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:06 AM on March 19, 2018


A court could find that cause unjust. They could also find that the new Acting AG is disqualified from overseeing Mueller

We hope it could play out that way, but look at Mulvaney's likely illegal takeover of the CFPB for the example. While the courts ever so slowly get around to sorting out what "cause" means, the Mueller investigation will already be dead and a replacement prosecutor would have publicly cleared Trump. I don't think we can rely on a legalistic interpretation or the courts to save us here, once Mueller is canned, the damage is done.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:10 AM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Or maybe just go to Congress as whistleblowers.

FBI & DOJ: Look at this evidence
Republican Congress: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by Talez at 7:10 AM on March 19, 2018 [46 favorites]


It would at least be a way of getting at least some knowledge of the results of the investigation in front of the public...they deserted Nixon, in the end. Once Trump's coattails turn into a ball-and-chain they will desert him too.

(But will it happen before November?....)
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:14 AM on March 19, 2018


look at Mulvaney's likely illegal takeover of the CFPB for the example

Hopefully the difference is that while many observers considered Mulvaney's takeover illegal, others including the CFPB's lawyer and the judge assigned to the case felt that Trump had the authority in legislation to replace the CFPB head with another previously-confirmed individual. If a judge feels differently in the case of Mueller's termination, they could quickly issue an injunction. Perhaps they could write a draft ahead of time!

I don't pretend to know how likely any of this is. I do know that if Trump tries to fire Mueller it's going to be a historic constitutional clusterfuck, and every avenue of resistance will need to be explored.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:18 AM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Trump lying about his daughter calling him daddy, or Ivanka manipulating him, or porque no los dos? Just gonna put this here with the rest of the fire.

Upthread:
P.S. Buried in one unnamed source's discussion about the difference between Trump's relationships with Hicks and Ivanka is this poison pill. "He knows that Ivanka has a separate agenda. Ivanka refers to him as ‘DJT’ just like the boys do, and Ivanka understands that her father is gonna be dead in ten years."


From September 2017:
Trump has interrupted his tax speech so Ivanka can be invited up on stage. He says people say about him, "he can't be that bad a guy: look at Ivanka." He also says that Ivanka asked him "Daddy, can I go with you? I like that. I said yes you can." (The "I like that" sounded like it was about being called "daddy.") It was really really weird.
posted by erisfree at 7:25 AM on March 19, 2018


On the one hand, I think that Trump really, honest-to-god wants to fire Mueller because he thinks that it is his way of cutting the Gordian knot of the Russia investigation.

On the other hand, I think he also thinks that by threatening to fire Mueller, he will gain some kind of leverage in "negotiating" with him. For his entire life, he's always gotten his way by making big bluffs and counting on not being called on them. Sadly for him, the tactics that work on a roofing contractor don't work on a federal prosecutor.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:25 AM on March 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


They literally celebrate being deplorable, constantly talk about virtue signaling which is an implicit admission that what we do is virtuous and what they do is not, and are overtly racist, fascist, bigoted and enjoy it - see Bannon's recent comments. There are no excuses. They are vile and stupid.

I wasn't really thinking of the hardcore Trumpers, the ones whose adoration of Trump is solely in his ability to piss off The Snowflakes And The Liberals. There is a wide swath of Republicans who would admit that his behavior is distasteful but do not hear about half of it, think most of the other half is exaggerated, and think the stuff that's not exaggerated is overblown and certainly not as terrible as what The Liberals are doing. Vis-a-vis policy, they think all politicians are terrible except for Trump, who is a fighter who is just Doing His Best In The Swamp and is being undermined everywhere by the Deep State and also people who criticize him just aren't giving his policies a chance and the stuff he advocates that sounds bad, well, it's all talk and probably not his idea anyway.

These are terrible, ignorant beliefs. I call it malignorance--the kind of ignorance that is purposely held in the face of others' pain because fixing it requires facing ugly truths that a person simply does not have the spine or will to face. It perpetuates the patriarchy, it perpetuate white supremacy, it perpetuates injustice, and it perpetuates the support of Trump. It is cruelty but it is a unacknowledged cruelty born of fear, not sociopathy, a cruelty that has swathed itself in the falsehood that it is Correct. The reason we must differentiate is because it is the form of ignorance that can be overcome on an individual basis by using the techniques to combat tribalism that are outlined in discussions of tribal psychology like that You Are Not So Smart podcast linked above. I am not saying this applies to your relatives--it certainly sounds like it doesn't. But it behooves us to ask who it does apply to and what we can do about it.

(whether you feel it is worth your time, well, that is something that each person has to answer for themselves. As someone with many facets of privilege, I've decided it's my duty whether I enjoy it or not, because expecting the oppressed to engage in that additional emotional labor is just another form of perpetuating their oppression)
posted by Anonymous at 7:29 AM on March 19, 2018


What is the best up-to-date site or article that lays out the case for Trump's collusion with Russia? I want to get my facts straight before Mueller gets fired.
posted by coffee and minarets at 7:29 AM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Of course replacing Mueller taints the investigation. But why should Trump or the Republicans care?

From a certain POV firing Mueller, replacing him with a stooge who will dink around for a few days and then get up in a nationally broadcast press conference and say that there was no collusion between Trump and Russia and the investigation was clearly started only to appease the Democrats would be the optimum outcome.

The Democrats would complain, but so what? The Republicans would march in lockstep (something they're very good at) and loudly proclaim at every opportunity that the Special Council had found absolutely no wrongdoing of any sort.

Sure, the people who had actually conducted the investigation might leak? So? Evil Deep State actors motivated by sheer hatred of Trump, America, and mom's apple pie are trying to help the terrorists, the Special Council found no collusion. FOX, hate radio, and all the guests on NPR and the other "liberal" media would be full of nothing but righteous indignation at the expense of the pointless, partisan witch hunt that went on and how even those horrible partisan Democrats couldn't find any collusion.

To people who interested and involved in politics (like us here) it'd be obvious that Trump was lying, but to the average person who is largely disengaged it'd seem like yet another he said she said pissing match between the Democrats and the Republicans, and anyway didn't the Special Council find nothing wrong?

Maybe we'd get some extra traction during the midterm elections, but I wouldn't count on it.

Really I'm confused as to why Trump hasn't reenacted the Saturday Night Massacre and ousted Mueller before now. Sure, there'd be some immediate pushback, probably lots of protests, but it seems to me as if that would die down fairly quickly and the average disengaged American voter wouldn't care all that much.

Straight up firing Mueller might not be his best policy, but firing Mueller on some trumped up (heh) pretext and replacing him with a Trump loyalist seems like a win for Trump.
posted by sotonohito at 7:36 AM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


What is the best up-to-date site or article that lays out the case for Trump's collusion with Russia?

NPR's Embedded began a series called Trump Stories late last year. The two latest 1 hour installments are a good listen and helped me to better understand the series of events leading to the investigation.
posted by bz at 7:38 AM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]






Talking Points Memo: One Of The House’s Least Reliable Democrats May Lose His Primary Tuesday

Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL) spent much of his career antagonizing his own party as an outspoken pro-life advocate who has been hostile to gay rights and has voted against Democratic priorities from the DREAM Act to Obamacare to Planned Parenthood funding. After more than a decade representing a safely Democratic seat stretching from Chicago’s Southwest Side out to largely working-class suburbs, he’s facing the toughest primary challenge of his career from former ad executive Marie Newman, a staunch liberal whose campaign has gotten a major boost from a constellation of national progressive groups seeking his ouster.

Since this is a safely Democratic seat, forcing out a conservative incumbent seems like an unambiguously good thing.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:00 AM on March 19, 2018 [87 favorites]


> she believed Trump was a good person

I just... how?!


There's no way she believes this unless she either suffers from Stockholm Syndrome or is, in the words of Steve Bannon in Fire and Fury, "dumb as a stone". While I can't rule out these possibilities, her participation in Nuzzi's article overall reads as a smoke signal from Hicks to Trump: You can count on me.

This laughable assessment of Trump's character is unquestionably off-the-record Hope Hicks's. It's also just one gesture among many in this article to Trumpland that she's absolutely, unswervingly, completely loyal to DJT and will pose no threat whatsoever to him once she leaves the Trump White House—which could be as soon as in two weeks' time. Having been tailed by private eyes - which, Maggie Haberman reminds everyone, is longstanding Trump S.O.P. - and heard about Stormy Daniels receiving death threats, she must be thinking of her future. Hicks, who has been professionally dealing with the media her entire career, surely by now knows how to send a message through it.

When Trump finishes reading the profile, he can rest assured that she won't be going on the talk-show/cable news expert panel circuit, she won't be writing a tell-all memoir, and she certainly won't strike a plea bargain with Mueller.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:00 AM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Whatever message she may want Trump to get, I wouldn't count on her agreeing to go to jail for him if talking to Mueller is her only other option.

I mean, maybe she's that much of a True Believer, but also maybe she knows how to bullshit him as well as anyone can.
posted by emjaybee at 8:03 AM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


These are terrible, ignorant beliefs. I call it malignorance--the kind of ignorance that is purposely held in the face of others' pain because fixing it requires facing ugly truths that a person simply does not have the spine or will to face. It perpetuates the patriarchy, it perpetuate white supremacy, it perpetuates injustice, and it perpetuates the support of Trump. It is cruelty but it is a unacknowledged cruelty born of fear, not sociopathy, a cruelty that has swathed itself in the falsehood that it is Correct.

Normalcy bias is another way to phrase it. There are many, many right-wingers who are in denial about Trump being the tip of the spear of an openly white nationalist, Christian supremacist, caste system movement. (As compared to the many, many right-wingers _overjoyed_ that Trump is all of that.) These people are in hard denial of the fact that America has _always_ had white nationalist, Christian supremacist, caste system ideology controlling large portions of it. It's Grandpa's Not A Racist mutating into It's Not Racist To Believe These Racist Things Because I've Been Assured That They're Not REALLY Racist Things and If They Really Were Racist I Wouldn't Be Surrounded By People Believing Them Too.

I like to remind people that 4/5 of America's history as a nation involves minorities being denied the benefits of citizenship, whether it was them being treated literally as property or being subjugated -- sometimes by word and statute, sometimes by open violence -- by a privileged caste. This is not ancient history. This is within the lives of those reading this post, or their parents' lives. The other 1/5 of that history (post-Civil Rights Acts of the 60s) is hardly "well, we settled all that and everyone is equal now," but it at least has several stabs at leveling the playing field for those who do not tick all of the [] white [] European descent [] Christian [] affluent [] heterosexual [] male checkboxes.

The pushback by those who are in the favored caste is incessant and as predictable as the tides.
posted by delfin at 8:05 AM on March 19, 2018 [41 favorites]


In addition to maybe thinking he can bluff Mueller into a "good deal", Trump loves TV-style suspense for its own sake. It wouldn't surprise me if his plan were to fire him right before the midterms, to provide Republicans a much-needed boost in the polls. Ratings! Yes, that makes no actual sense, but when he fired Comey he thought everyone would love him for it, and he never learns.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:07 AM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


In addition to maybe thinking he can bluff Mueller into a "good deal",

IIRC, Trump's never been in a Criminal Court, only civil actions he could settle his way out of.

I wish I could "Rip Van Winkle" it to the point in the future where everyone knows enough to make sense of all this.
posted by mikelieman at 8:13 AM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


IIRC, Trump's never been in a Criminal Court, only civil actions he could settle his way out of.

Maybe his strategy is to sit down for an interview and poke Mueller in the leg with a brown envelope of cash
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:16 AM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


I mean, maybe she's that much of a True Believer, but also maybe she knows how to bullshit him as well as anyone can.

I'd wager the latter, though her public Twitter feed, @WHCommHopeHicks, sure reads like the former. Either way—or a bit of both?—the subtext of her participation in Nuzzi's article seems to be designed to reassure Trump, who's portrayed in positive light that literally no other White House staffer has done. Really now, "I’m sorry for everything you’ve been through."?!? Does that sound like anything DJT has publicly said in his entire life?
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:17 AM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


What is the best up-to-date site or article that lays out the case for Trump's collusion with Russia?

I've been working hard to keep 2016 Active Measures - What the Public Knows up to date.

Here is a direct link to the evidence of collusion section. I organized it into eight categories 1.) Papadopoulos 2.) Sater 3.) Manafort 4.) Donald Trump Jr 5.) WikiLeaks 6.) Policy 7.) Secret contacts 8.) Security risks

(I may have to break the Cambridge Analytica stuff out into its own category. I'm just not quite sure what to say about it, yet.)

If you're looking for gory details of Trump's history with the Miss Universe pageant and doing real estate deals with oligarchs, I put that stuff (which is not direct evidence of collusion, though it suggests motive and opportunity) on its own page: "The Story So Far." It's not totally comprehensive because that can get unreadably long. Just the highlights. That page also has a list of all the secret contacts we now know about between the Trump campaign and Russia, before the election and during the transition.

Because I find that people have trouble processing long lists of facts without a narrative to tie them together, I went ahead and created a page for "Plausible Explanations". It has links to a variety of different narratives, as well as a short description of what I consider both the worst case scenario, and the most likely scenario. But there are still, at this point, multiple possible explanations that fit the facts. Almost all of them, however, involve some form of collusion.
posted by OnceUponATime at 8:18 AM on March 19, 2018 [163 favorites]


"Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL) spent much of his career antagonizing his own party as an outspoken pro-life advocate who has been hostile to gay rights and has voted against Democratic priorities from the DREAM Act to Obamacare to Planned Parenthood funding. "

Also relevant to understanding Dan Lipinski is that his father was in the seat for 22 years. In 2004, after dad won the primary, he persuaded the Dem committee to replace him on the ballot with his son so he could retire, meaning Dan didn't have to go through a primary and was guaranteed election; Dan' been serving continuously in the seat since. Bill Lipinski was an "ethnic" Democrat (Polish, Catholic (in the era when Catholics were basically universally Democrats), Chicago machine, big union guy). Dan Lipinski, like so many of that generation's children, is functionally a Republican -- Catholic pro-lifer, Polish has become "white," parents' union jobs ensured the kids went to college and became professionals. But Dan Lipinski can't quit the Democratic party because a) he can't win in that district as a Republican and b) he's entirely beholden to his father for his life, for his career, and for his public reputation. It would be tremendously embarrassing for his father if Dan became a Republican, and he isn't willing to do that. And he isn't willing to explode his entire adult life, in which he's been a Democratic politician.

Everything about him annoys me.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:20 AM on March 19, 2018 [92 favorites]


> she believed Trump was a good person

I just... how?!


See also: Members of a college/high school football team are literally videotaped committing rape, but the coach says they're good kids. Cops are videotapped shooting an unarmed black man (or child) in the back, but the other cops stand behind them and still think of themselves as the good guys. And on. And on.

Or, see also: "Yes, he's an asshole, but he's our asshole."

Many people will excuse anything out of friendship. Lots of people value their personal loyalties over their conscience. Lots.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:32 AM on March 19, 2018 [33 favorites]




OnceUponATime, thank you! This is amazing.
posted by mochapickle at 8:39 AM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


> she believed Trump was a good person

I don't think her judgement is so hot. She also chose to be involved (beyond just in the office) with two batterers/sexual assaulters (Lewandoski and Porter.) It's entirely possible that she see's this kind of behavior as 'normal' or 'reasonable.' People believe all kinds of things.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:40 AM on March 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


Personal values and support for Donald Trump during the 2016 US presidential primary
Highlights
• Personal values predict support for Donald Trump beyond political attitudes.
• Low Altruism, high Power, Commerce, & Tradition predict Trump Support.
• People with similar values to Trump were more likely to support his candidacy.
• Values were a stronger predictor of support than political attitudes.

Trump supporters were more likely to agree with statements such as “People who are poor just need to work harder”, “In life, winning is the only thing that matters”, “A company’s main focus should be profits”, “Art shows are boring”, and “Dress codes are good and should be followed strictly.”

On the other hand, Trump supporters tended to disagree with statements such as “Building relationships is more important than building profit”, “Happiness is more important than money”, “Protestors are the most patriotic citizens”, and “Applying the scientific method is the best way to discover the truth.”
Not surprising but still,
posted by Talez at 8:41 AM on March 19, 2018 [50 favorites]


What is the best up-to-date site or article that lays out the case for Trump's collusion with Russia?

Seconding OnceUponATime's site. Remarkably thorough.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:47 AM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


That site should be on the sidebar.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 8:51 AM on March 19, 2018 [36 favorites]


>> and on that question swings the decision on whether to challenge the 2016 results.

There is no Constitutional mechanism to do that. The only remedy the Constitution gives us is impeachment.
posted by OnceUponATime at 1:44 AM on March 19 [12 favorites +] [!]


Well, the courts have done it before, so there's that.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:52 AM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Well, the courts have done it before, so there's that.

That's not impeachment that's annulling.
posted by Talez at 8:53 AM on March 19, 2018


Well, the courts have done it before, so there's that.

That's not impeachment that's annulling.
posted by Talez at 8:53 AM on March 19 [+] [!]


Yes. That was my point, in response to the assertion that there is no Constitutional remedy to fraudulent elections other than impeachment.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:57 AM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Haha, a lot of talk of "civil war" might be hyperbole but I think a Federal judge ordering that Hillary Clinton be handed the presidency might do the trick
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:58 AM on March 19, 2018 [38 favorites]


Well, the courts have done it before, so there's that.

This kind of move for a State Senate seat is a completely different situation than pulling it off for the Presidency, and, in any case, the trick there is the discarding of ballots that were deemed fraudulent. After the ballots were discarded, the other opponent was the winner. There is no magic bullet here that would, say, discard the electoral votes of Wisconsin because the Milwaukee Suburbs are full of racist jingoists easily susceptible to propaganda...
posted by dis_integration at 9:00 AM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Motion: Prosecutors excluded black jurors in seven death-penalty cases

In handwritten notes, Columbus prosecutors described prospective African-American jurors as “slow,” “ignorant,” “con artist” and “fat.” They also jotted a “B” or an “N” next to black people’s names on jury lists and routinely ranked them as the least desirable jurors. This astonishing system of race discrimination, revealed in a court motion filed Monday, was intended to exclude black people from juries in seven death-penalty cases against black defendants in the 1970s.

How many people similarly denied justice have already been executed?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:03 AM on March 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


Local Politics: almost every member of the IDC (Independent Democrat Caucus, a group of Dems in the NY State Senate who vote with the republicans, blocking almost all progressive legislature) now has a primary challenger

Likeminded people in those distincts should check that they are on the Democratic Party roll and vote in the upcoming primary.
posted by The Whelk at 9:06 AM on March 19, 2018 [93 favorites]


It wouldn't surprise me if his plan were to fire him right before the midterms

I think that Trump cannot conceive of Mueller as anything but a politically-motivated actor. Trump may imagine that if Mueller has a damning report or allegations to make, those will drop near the midterms to maximize their political impact. If Trump believes that, this gives him incentive to pre-emptively fire Mueller- incentive that increases asymptotically the closer you get to the midterms.

Nate Silver talks about how the mean projected Democratic gain in the House is modest, but his models show a surprisingly "heavy tail": the possibility of jaw-dropping historic gains. If Mueller were fired just before the midterms, it's hard to imagine that making the tail any lighter.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:06 AM on March 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


Haha, a lot of talk of "civil war" might be hyperbole but I think a Federal judge ordering that Hillary Clinton be handed the presidency might do the trick
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:58 AM on March 19 [1 favorite −] Favorite added! [!]


Yes, I've thought about that. There's been some indication that the same techniques used for the presidency may have been used for some key Congressional races. The fraudulently obtained power was then used to install Gorsuch in place of Merrick or some other choice by Obama. All three branches of government are, in my mind, illegitimate if collusion proves to be a factor in the 2016 election. Once a party controls these, they can effectively block the expression of the electorate, by simply ignoring laws. They have shown willingness to do that.

We're either a nation of laws or we're not. I feel that if we knowingly allow a party to steal the levers of government such that the will of the people is no longer heard, then we are no longer a nation of laws. This would be a test of us as a nation just as much as the question of slavery was.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:06 AM on March 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


After the ballots were discarded, the other opponent was the winner. There is no magic bullet here that would, say, discard the electoral votes of Wisconsin because the Milwaukee Suburbs are full of racist jingoists easily susceptible to propaganda...
posted by dis_integration at 9:00 AM on March 19 [1 favorite +] [!]


There are records of who was targeted and how. Some were encouraged to vote; others discouraged based on profiling. Those precincts or districts critical to the election could be revoted. I'm not saying this could be done successfully, especially given McConnell's SCOTUS, but I believe the Democratic party should be in court, today, making arguments. This is an historic event and a less shambolic GOP could create a permanent rule using exactly the techniques they've shown a propensity to use so far.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:11 AM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I mean, maybe she's that much of a True Believer, but also maybe she knows how to bullshit him as well as anyone can.

Hicks knifing Trump to save herself would be the truest expression of everything he ever taught her. I can't see how he could feel anything but pride, should that moment ever come.
posted by EatTheWeek at 9:15 AM on March 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies. It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!


Bloomberg has just published an in-depth account of new potentially illegal actions by Flynn during the Trump transition: What Michael Flynn Could Tell the Russia Investigators
A three-month Bloomberg investigation has found that Flynn, who was fired for having lied to the FBI and the vice president about his contacts with Russians, had a slew of other problematic entanglements. Previously unreported documents, including Pentagon contracts, emails and internal company papers, point to overlapping business conflicts around the world.[...]

Flynn’s troubles trace back to a previously unreported million-dollar contract for computer chips forged with a friend, Bijan Kian, a suave, Iranian-born businessman. A former governor at the Export-Import Bank, Kian was chairman of a Persian cultural nonprofit group, the Nowruz Commission, that gave him entree into high Washington circles. He built a relationship with former CIA Director James Woolsey and, in 2013, used it to get Flynn, then the Pentagon’s top intelligence officer, to support his computer chip company’s bid for a contract.

The next year, when Flynn was forced out by the Obama administration, his friendship with Kian blossomed into a business partnership. Kian brought him into the chip company, GreenZone Systems Inc., as a board member. According to Flynn’s financial disclosure, GreenZone and its parent company paid him more than $150,000 in cash, plus an undisclosed amount of stock in 2015.

Kian also helped fund and found Flynn Intelligence Group, the ex-general’s consulting firm, and served as a senior partner. While it’s been known that Flynn was advocating in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Israel in 2015 for a consortium seeking to build several dozen nuclear power reactors, it’s not been reported that he and Kian were also trying to sell GreenZone’s secure chips as part of the deal. Flynn lied about the trip in his federal disclosures.

Kian also brought Flynn Intel its most problematic deal: a previously reported $530,000 contract with Dutch company Inovo BV, ostensibly to improve the business climate in Turkey. Flynn later admitted that the contract primarily benefited Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and that his firm had been paid to lobby U.S. officials to extradite an Erdogan enemy living in Pennsylvania.[...]

Flynn helped Kian land a spot on the [transition team’s intelligence committee], where he prepared incoming CIA nominee Mike Pompeo for his confirmation hearing and pushed a number of policy proposals, including fighting a potential threat from electromagnetic pulses, or EMPs. Pompeo has recently been named secretary of state.

Another controversial and previously unreported proposal Flynn and Kian promoted was to hire private security contractors to collect information around the globe, then sidestep the CIA and provide the intelligence directly to the national security adviser, according to people who worked with them on the transition. Flynn couldn’t hold his administration job long enough to shepherd those plans into action.
(And here I was hoping for merely an update on Flynn's dalliance with an obvious GRU dangle back in 2014.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:16 AM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


A thought just occurred to me: Trump and Kushner are -- and have been -- making deals with some pretty unforgiving types.

Like, if Trump gets ousted and he and his son-in-law can't deliver on all the promises they've made in exchange for the loans and "gifts" they've gotten, it seems to me they're likely to get messages and visits from some very not-friendly types asking for repayment.

I'm starting to wonder if that's as much of a factor in his behavioral and emotional volatility as embarrassment and/or indignation that anyone dares to see him as less than the Son of Heaven.
posted by lord_wolf at 9:27 AM on March 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


Great point; even if the election were illegally rigged, the electoral college vote was arguably no more rigged than usual. The constitution allows states to choose Electors in any way they see fit, and they did so. There is, as yet, no constitutional necessity for the election of the President to reflect the will of the American people, or even the people of each state.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:46 AM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


A thought just occurred to me: Trump and Kushner are -- and have been -- making deals with some pretty unforgiving types.

Like, if Trump gets ousted and he and his son-in-law can't deliver on all the promises they've made in exchange for the loans and "gifts" they've gotten, it seems to me they're likely to get messages and visits from some very not-friendly types asking for repayment.

I'm starting to wonder if that's as much of a factor in his behavioral and emotional volatility as embarrassment and/or indignation that anyone dares to see him as less than the Son of Heaven.


Yeah this is why I think we'll see an excuse to retire long before impeachment, IIRC you get to keep Secret Service protection if you retire, but not if you're impeached and removed. It's like a struggle between his ego and his self-preservation instincts, right now the ego is winning but he's certainly been willing to suffer the ego blow of bankruptcy enough in the past that I think we'll see some excuse made to retire if Congress switches hands or his party realizes he's dead weight who can't help them elect any other Republicans.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:48 AM on March 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Impeachment and removal — even of judges — is not a legal remedy, but a political remedy, correct?

So any impeachable fruit of the poison tree is fair game. It’s a political question. I understand that people are afraid of the reaction if we impeach and remove Gorsuch and others after we’ve gotten rid of Trump, but I’m more afraid of the consequences for the country if we don’t.

We can’t keep kicking this can down the road. It just gives the fascists time and space to grow, regroup, evolve new tactics.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:51 AM on March 19, 2018 [55 favorites]


A thought just occurred to me: Trump and Kushner are -- and have been -- making deals with some pretty unforgiving types.

one of my big questions is "how mobbed up was trump before he had to resort to russian financing?" clearly he was driven in the direction of russian money by his ruined credit after multiple bankruptcies - but has he previously been in the position of owing money to murderous legbreakers, or is this a new level of consequence that his consequence-free life has left him totally unprepared for?
posted by murphy slaw at 10:01 AM on March 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


"...it seems to me they're likely to get messages and visits from some very not-friendly types asking for repayment.

I'm starting to wonder if that's as much of a factor in his behavioral and emotional volatility as embarrassment and/or indignation that anyone dares to see him as less than the Son of Heaven."

MMMMhm. I watched the sauce-making/helicopter errands sequence in Goodfellas last night, and Ray Liotta's irritabilty and hair trigger yelping throughout and his relief at the end of it that it's a cop and not a wiseguy who is holding the gun pointed at his ear were especially poignant.
posted by Don Pepino at 10:04 AM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


What's the word on the street on who the unnamed "official" Rob Porter was seeing on/off again is?
posted by AwkwardPause at 10:11 AM on March 19, 2018


It used to tell you that you could pre-register at a younger age in states that allowed that or that voters who would turn 18 before the next election can register, but it now provides the incorrect rule "You must be 18 to register" for many states.

I'm currently working with the town committee and state party on youth outreach. That the White House is so scared of these kids that they changed the website proves my point on how important that demographic is. Kid Ruki was talking over the weekend about seeing if she could organize a voter registration event for her peers. I really think that there can be a 2018 blue wave propelled by angry teenagers, but we need to make sure they have a seat at the table now.
posted by Ruki at 10:25 AM on March 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


i suspect that trump and the fox crew may be unpleasantly surprised to see how well Moon Law holds up in actual court
posted by murphy slaw at 10:25 AM on March 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


They repped Clovis who was Papadopoulous's boss.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 10:28 AM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


(the same Sam Clovis who was nominated for USDA chief scientist, despite knowing nothing about agriculture or science. he later withdrew.)
posted by murphy slaw at 10:31 AM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


i suspect that trump and the fox crew may be unpleasantly surprised to see how well Moon Law holds up in actual court

The Mahleur lot walked... the rule of law is an extremely precarious thing in America right now.
posted by Artw at 10:31 AM on March 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


So... ummm... Comey's book got overtaken on Amazon. What by?

A Day in the Life of Marlon Bundo

It's a book commissioned by Last Week Tonight which tells a story of Mike Pence's bunny, Marlo Bundo, and his struggle with his gay bunny relationship. There is also an audiobook version narrated by Jim Parsons.

Why would they do this? Because the Pence family are also releasing a book about Bundo and one of their promotional stops is at Focus on the Family, a bunch of professional homosexual haters and that pissed John off.
posted by Talez at 10:38 AM on March 19, 2018 [97 favorites]


The Mahleur lot walked... the rule of law is an extremely precarious thing in America right now.

They walked twice, both on the Bundy Ranch armed standoff, and on the armed takeover of federal land in Oregon.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:48 AM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Oh, this is marvelous -- lots of the 1-star ratings on the bunny book are actually positive reviews by fans but set as 1-star to drown out the 1-star haters. Haaaaaaaa.
posted by mochapickle at 10:54 AM on March 19, 2018 [29 favorites]


Federal district court rejects PA GOP's appeal of the redistricting, finds they have no standing.

The only legal avenue remaining is the request at SCOTUS for a stay, which we are still waiting to hear about.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:15 AM on March 19, 2018 [34 favorites]


Mr. diGenova is law partners with his wife, Victoria Toensing. Ms. Toensing has also represented Sam Clovis, the former Trump campaign co-chairman, and Erik Prince.

And Toensing's name may ring a bell to MeFites for, among other matters, her appearances on Fox News to defame Valerie Plame during the Bush II Yellow Cake scandal. She and her husband are veteran TV legal bullshitters, media proteges of Geraldo Rivera.

If Team Trump does go through with hiring them, it's an indication Trump's legal strategy will be to go full-on Uranium One-style conspiracy theory–pushing against Mueller.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:17 AM on March 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


In a total Miranda move, Cynthia Nixon announces candidacy for governor of New York.

Initial polling has Gov Cuomo up on Nixon 66-19.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:19 AM on March 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


The first Bundy case was thrown out due to prosecutorial misconduct. They won the second one mostly because the government tried to nail them for conspiracy rather than a more narrow charge, and the jury didn't buy it.

Hopefully any prosecution brought by Mueller would be handled more carefully.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:25 AM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Jpfed: “I think that Trump cannot conceive of Mueller as anything but a politically-motivated actor.”
This is a character defect shared by most soi-disant 'conservatives' and 'libertarians.' They simply cannot even imagine a world in which everyone else isn't just as big of a piece-of-shit as they are.

Cf. “Is America Governable?” Umair Haque, Eudaimonia & Co, 17 March 2018
posted by ob1quixote at 11:26 AM on March 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


In a total Miranda move, Cynthia Nixon announces candidacy for governor of New York.

Initial polling has Gov Cuomo up on Nixon 66-19.


I admit my initial reaction was a kind of puppy head tilt, but you know what? I’m here for this. You’d basically have to have celebrity power to launch a effective primary from the left in NYS against Cuomo, so, you know. Good. Hopefully it also opens the field to other left of Cuomo’s bullshit candidates, and the combination makes him sweat. Or takes him out. I can dream.

Seriously, fuck Cuomo.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:30 AM on March 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


Stormy Daniels hasn’t been mentioned in prime time on Fox News since March 8, Up to speed on the Stormy Daniels story? If you watch Fox, probably not. (WaPo)
posted by peeedro at 11:37 AM on March 19, 2018 [15 favorites]



It's a private agreement with Trump signed as a condition of employment with the Federal Government. That's highly irregular, and probably illegal...



I am confused as to how this is not transparently criminal extortion. I mean, Trump is making someone sign a side agreement to benefit him personally in exchange for giving them a government job? What am I missing?

That aside, imagine if instead of surrendering your free speech, the contract was, ok you can get a job but in exchange you had to permanently sign away your right to vote, or to bear arms, or to practice your religion...? We still in grey area territory?
posted by xigxag at 11:37 AM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


schroedinger: it is a unacknowledged cruelty born of fear, not sociopathy, a cruelty that has swathed itself in the falsehood that it is Correct

Two Sundays ago after church, this old white guy tells me how much he and some visiting friends enjoyed our choir's music. He's married to a Japanese-American woman and in my interactions with him (small-talk only), he's always been a sweetheart. He says one of his friends is from North Korea, captured during the Korean War. The friend settled here in California. "What does your friend think of the increasing aggression between our two leaders?" says I.

"HOW can they say such horrible things about our President?" He's almost tearful. "He's the smartest man in the world! If he can solve North Korea, wouldn't that be wonderful!"

Me: "Ah.... Yes it would be wonderful! From what I've read, and my sources are probably different from yours, I'm worried about the details of his plan. The devil's in the details, right? I have to say, I don't actually agree with your opinion of our President."

Him: "Really? But look at everything he accomplished in his life! All his businesses! Look at what he's accomplished in the past year! He knows how to get things done. Not like that other guy...the one before...what's his name..."

Me: "Obama?"

Him: "Yes! That was THE scariest time in my life!"

Me: "Er... Again, I have to say, my opinion is different. Gosh, [name redacted], I really think our sources of information must be so different, cuz we're both intelligent, compassionate people who want to reduce suffering, right? So we should be able to sit down and talk about why we believe such different things, right?"

He agreed with that. Next conversation -- if he's still willing to talk to me -- it'll be time for Stage 2: "HOW do you check if your sources are wrong? Here's my process: check my source's sources and check THEIR sources; and, check the other side's reasons for saying what it does. What's yours?"
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 11:38 AM on March 19, 2018 [70 favorites]


I've got to say, his inability to remember the name of the first black President, who was President up until roughly 14 months ago, does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the eventual success of your approach. But godspeed and good luck.

(spoilers: its because Obama is black.)
posted by Justinian at 11:41 AM on March 19, 2018 [113 favorites]


And if he's a Fox News watcher, then he spent eight years being bombarded with fearmongering programming. Its business model is founded on frightening its audience, something that Trump participated in and instinctively incorporated into his 2016 campaign.

It occurs to me that I don't remember fearmongering being part of Trump's platform in his Reform Party 2000 campaign, though I paid little attention to it, regarding him as an opportunistic buffoon that would never, ever need to be taken seriously.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:52 AM on March 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


Jpfed: “I think that Trump cannot conceive of Mueller as anything but a politically-motivated actor.”

So, totally unrelated to anything else going on here, I was reading this local article about a central kitchen that both trains marginalized underskilled people to work in kitchens and provides several local schools with their school lunches and:
Flanagan has heard principals say they’re afraid to serve explicitly healthy food because it would be perceived as too political.
Healthy. food. is. too. political. Jesus fuck. We really have just decided that everything is a political opinion and nothing is actual fact.
posted by soren_lorensen at 11:56 AM on March 19, 2018 [145 favorites]


All his businesses!

Ask him how difficult he thinks it is to bankrupt a casino.
posted by PenDevil at 11:59 AM on March 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


The crazy thing is, this is the City of Pittsburgh! We're like 2/3 Democrats, and Pittsburgh Public Schools are 60% non-white. Who are healthy lunches too political for? (Don't answer that. It's probably State-level politicians, most of whom are Republicans and hate cities and those who dwell in them and who are always looking for axes to grind.)
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:03 PM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Flanagan has heard principals say they’re afraid to serve explicitly healthy food because it would be perceived as too political.

This derives from Republicans' reluctance to openly condemn Michelle Obama for having dark skin, instead seizing upon her promotion of fruits and vegetables
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:06 PM on March 19, 2018 [63 favorites]


Flanagan has heard principals say they’re afraid to serve explicitly healthy food because it would be perceived as too political.

Flanagan is capitalizing on the President*'s ability to state his wishes as facts ("People say ... ", or "My friend told me ....") without fear of being checked.

Contagious, and no antibiotics in sight. We're fucked.
posted by Dashy at 12:10 PM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]




I've got to say, the thought of angering Republicans might just be what it takes to convince me to listen to my doctor and start eating healthier.
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:12 PM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


Er, Jennifer Flanagan is the director of Community Kitchen, the aforementioned nonprofit that trains marginalized and formerly incarcerated people for employment in the hospitality sector. I'm pretty sure she'd be quite happy if more school principals decided that the food her organization provides is appropriate to serve in their schools. She's just legit reporting what she's been told.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:14 PM on March 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


schadenfrau: "I admit my initial reaction was a kind of puppy head tilt, but you know what? I’m here for this. You’d basically have to have celebrity power to launch a effective primary from the left in NYS against Cuomo, so, you know. Good. "

Yeah, I know primarying is a hardy perennial debate in these parts, but this is like the Platonic ideal of when to go for it. Cuomo is no friend of the left, and at the same time, a Democrat is virtually certain to win the election (the NY GOP has had a hell of a time even finding a candidate for statewides).

If she wins, great. If she opens space for someone else on the left, great. But even running should a) force Cuomo to tack left a bit/move the Overton window, and b) help lefter candidates downballot.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:16 PM on March 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


Surely this latest Cambridge Analytica bombshell must be overstate…
In one exchange, when asked about digging up material on political opponents, Mr Nix said they could “send some girls around to the candidate’s house”, adding that Ukrainian girls “are very beautiful, I find that works very well”.

In another he said: “We’ll offer a large amount of money to the candidate, to finance his campaign in exchange for land for instance, we’ll have the whole thing recorded, we’ll blank out the face of our guy and we post it on the Internet.”
uh

well surely this is a case of them telling the client what they want to hear, the company itself…
Mr Nix told our reporter: “…we’re used to operating through different vehicles, in the shadows, and I look forward to building a very long-term and secretive relationship with you.”
uh

this is good news for donald trump?
posted by murphy slaw at 12:17 PM on March 19, 2018 [47 favorites]


Not only did Cambridge Analytica work with Corey Lewandowski before he became Trump's campaign manager, they had Steve Bannon as a vice-president. And they have extensive links to Russia.

In summary, NO COLLUSION
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:17 PM on March 19, 2018 [66 favorites]


Mod note: Please ease up on the riffing a bit, folks.
posted by cortex (staff) at 12:19 PM on March 19, 2018


More:

EXCLUSIVE: Cambridge Analytica offers to “set up fake IDs and websites” or pose as students to hide their role in election campaigns.

“It has to happen without anyone thinking: ‘that’s propaganda.’
EXCLUSIVE: The art of disguising propaganda - Cambridge Analytica bosses discuss the subtle techniques behind hidden online political messaging.


Sounds like if not joined at the hip with the IRA these guys share a lot of their techniques.
posted by Artw at 12:21 PM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


soren_lorensen: "It's probably State-level politicians, most of whom are Republicans and hate cities and those who dwell in them and who are always looking for axes to grind"

The good news is there have been a ton of GOP retirements in the PA legislature (4 Senate, 19 House), and several of those were Clinton districts (2 Senate, 4 House). PA Dems are running for the most seats in recent memory. We have an opportunity for substantial gains this year.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:22 PM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


For the conservosphere's hot take on Cambridge Analytica, here's the current top story under the Foxnews.com "White House" tab:

Trump Bible heads to museum
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:26 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Who are healthy lunches too political for?

Trump voters. You would not believe the amount of hate they have for the school lunch regulations passed under Obama.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:28 PM on March 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


And SCOTUS has denied the stay request from the PA GOP. Unless I am missing something, there are no further legal avenues for them to pursue, and the redistricting goes forward.

Btw, full court agreed, no dissents (and the earlier district court ruling was 3-0, as well).
posted by Chrysostom at 12:28 PM on March 19, 2018 [67 favorites]


I assume Channel 4 has a good reputation for these sort of stings? It's not just a more sophisticated version of Project Veritas? Because damn.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Yes, very solid rep.
posted by Artw at 12:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Trump Bible heads to museum

For sale: trump bible, never read.
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [122 favorites]


Let's not forget Michael Flynn. Vox from last year:
By itself, Harris’s reporting makes no connection to Cambridge Analytica. But in August the Associated Press published a report that helped connect the dots. In an amended public financial filing, Flynn was forced to disclose “a brief advisory role with a firm related to a controversial data analysis company that aided the Trump campaign.”

The “data analysis company” is none other than Cambridge Analytica. The precise amount of money Cambridge paid to Flynn is unknown, as are the details of Flynn’s role.
I feel like this is a turning point. We're no longer talking about Russian agents doing illegal things to help Trump. We're talking about Trump's campaign staff doing illegal things to help Trump. Possibly as Russian agents.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:31 PM on March 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


It's over in the PA gerrymandering case!

The SC has denied a stay. No dissents.
posted by Justinian at 12:36 PM on March 19, 2018 [36 favorites]


NYTimes: Trump to Hire Lawyer Who Has Pushed Theory That Justice Dept. Framed the President

News Update: The hiring announcement is official. '“Former U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia Joe DiGenova will be joining our legal team later this week,” said Jay Sekulow, one of the president’s personal lawyers. “I have worked with Joe for many years and have full confidence that he will be a great asset in our representation of the President.”'
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:37 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Oh I got overly excited. I should have known Chrysostom would beat me to it.

I was overly cynical about the SC I guess. I thought they'd come up with some garbage rationale like in Bush-v-Gore to put their thumbs on the scale. But this is huge.

I hope other states are taking a hard look at whether their own state Constitutions forbid the practice of overly partisan gerrymander.
posted by Justinian at 12:38 PM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


So as he's sniffling and slurring his way through this opioid speech it sounds like we're bringing back Just Say No PSAs and now we're into a campaign speech about DACA and The Wall.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 12:38 PM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Justinian: "I hope other states are taking a hard look at whether their own state Constitutions forbid the practice of overly partisan gerrymander."

Someone took a look at this earlier, and I think 48 states have similar language to the text in the PA constitution that the PA SC used as basis for the finding.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:42 PM on March 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


Note that under the new map Democrats seem poised to pick up around 4-5 seats in the PA delegation to the House of Representatives come November. That's roughly 1/5 to 1/6 of what they need to take the House over just from Pennsylvania.

That isn't a net gain of 4-5 from the new map over the old map since it is likely the Ds would have picked up a few seats in a wave under the old map as well but this probably nets an average of 2 new D reps even in a wave year.
posted by Justinian at 12:43 PM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]




From a Guardian reporter:

@carolecadwalla - Wow. Britain's Information Officer announces she is seeking a warranting to raid Cambridge Analytica and seize servers
posted by Existential Dread at 12:46 PM on March 19, 2018 [81 favorites]


no get the warrant first don't tell them about how you are intending to get the warrant thanks
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:48 PM on March 19, 2018 [125 favorites]


Trump says he wants a federal lawsuit against pharma companies that make opioids. He also says they have to combat the problem of over-prescribing, plans to cut nationwide opioid prescriptions by one third.

Ok. You've just cut the prescriptions. Great. Now what?

Oh yeah, you're going to leave the addicts hanging and force them to find heroin and fentanyl on the street to feed their addictions. If you don't handle the hard (and expensive) part of treating the addiction long term you're just going to turn those addicts into criminals.
posted by Talez at 12:49 PM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


Destruction of evidence is a great way to go to jail for a very long time. Also, from Artw's link:

This report is Part Two of a Channel 4 News series, ‘Data, Democracy and Dirty Tricks’, investigating Cambridge Analytica.

Part Three, on the company’s work in the United States, will be broadcast at 7pm tomorrow (Tuesday, 20 March 2018). You can watch Part One here.


I'm guessing more shoes are gonna drop.
posted by Existential Dread at 12:54 PM on March 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


If you don't handle the hard (and expensive) part of treating the addiction long term you're just going to turn those addicts into criminals.

that's where the whole death penalty thing comes in
*obviously*
jeez

Re: Cambridge Analytica... this is only part 2 of the Channel 4 series. Part 3, focusing on their American operations specifically, airs tomorrow. Invest in popcorn futures now, if today's anything to go by.
posted by halation at 12:54 PM on March 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


This particular Cambridge Analytica story is really chilling to me - The thing I can't get past:

> An undercover reporter for Channel 4 News posed as a fixer for a wealthy client hoping to get candidates elected in Sri Lanka.

That this is a thing that could actually happen is completely nuts. This is seriously into the territory of shadowy figures who hang out in a smoky room pulling the strings for countries the world all over - as a private agency, not as anything state sponsored, catering exclusively to the .01%. This is supervillian territory. This is shit that I thought could only be fiction because surely it would have been exposed or leaked by now.

The past year and change has me seriously questioning reality.
posted by MysticMCJ at 12:55 PM on March 19, 2018 [71 favorites]


In case anyone hasn't had the opportunity to view the video, Cambridge Analytica CEO Alexander "Skeevy" Nix claims that he hires attractive Ukrainian women and sends them to politicians' houses to surreptitiously film them. He uses "fake IDs and websites." "It sounds like a dreadful thing to say, but these are things that don't necessarily need to be true, as long as they're believed."
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:02 PM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Digital data can be deleted pretty cleanly, but it's not easy to do it in a way that plausibly looks like you didn't delete anything. So yeah, if that's the route they try, they'll be in big trouble regardless, as Existential Dread said. Especially if this upcoming Part 3's revelations suggest some records they ought to have but "mysteriously" don't.

Part 2 is worth watching just for the end, where the person they're talking to says CA employs "masters of disguise" when they go about bribing/threatening/entrapping political opponents, that they can plant covert cameras like nobody's business, etc. The stingers have become the stung... taste that irony, it's delicious.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:03 PM on March 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


That this is a thing that could actually happen is completely nuts. This is seriously into the territory of shadowy figures who hang out in a smoky room pulling the strings for countries the world all over - as a private agency, not as anything state sponsored, catering exclusively to the .01%. This is supervillian territory. This is shit that I thought could only be fiction because surely it would have been exposed or leaked by now.

The past year and change has me seriously questioning reality.


And Cambridge Analytica might just be the stupid loud one that got a higher profile than it wanted, how many similar outfits are out there that are successfully discreet?

Also I am not going to be surprised if we find out all they do is basic old school extorting, bribing and stealing with a social media twist and there's nothing actually there behind their data modelling, but handwaving vaguely about proprietary data wrangling makes for a great cover.
posted by jason_steakums at 1:05 PM on March 19, 2018 [28 favorites]


it’s so bizarre to me how CA has been described as primarily a data analysis and ad targeting operation up to now. these revelations show the business they’re really in: full-service propaganda and influence peddling
posted by murphy slaw at 1:07 PM on March 19, 2018 [44 favorites]


I'm half expecting it's going to turn out that CA is some bad old CIA cutout for regime change operations that took on a life of its own, just to get the full Trump's Mirror closure on his "Deep State" line.
posted by jason_steakums at 1:11 PM on March 19, 2018 [34 favorites]


cybercoitus interruptus He's married to a Japanese-American woman and in my interactions with him (small-talk only), he's always been a sweetheart.

Justinian spoilers: its because Obama is black

I think part of our problem, both individually and nationally, is that we have this unconscious expectation or belief that a person who does bad things is a bad person. The idea that there are evil people, not people who take evil actions. We talk about people who "are evil".

The problem is that it doesn't work that way. People can both be screaming racists **AND** be married to Japanese women, or be a sweetheart and a pillar of the local community. They can even be screaming racists and genuinely have black friends.

Hell, they can even be married to black people, have black children, and be screaming racists.

We want to imagine that evil seeps through a person and taints everything about them, we want to imagine that evil acts are committed by evil people.

But it doesn't.

Take the extreme example of Dennis Rader, better known as the BTK Killer. He wasn't just a serial killer, he tortured his victims and left taunting notes for the police and media to create a mood of panic and fear. But, and this is the important thing, he was also a devoted father who apparently genuinely loved his children, a good spouse who apparently genuinely loved his wife, a friendly outgoing and helpful person at his work. He wasn't evil the way we want to think of evil people. His evil aspects didn't seep through and taint the rest of him.

When Rader was finally caught and his identity revealed the most common reaction among people who knew him was complete astonishment. It wasn't the suburban indifference "he always kept his lawn tidy" sort of thing, there were people who thought they knew him well and could not believe he really was the BTK Killer.

Call it compartmentalization, call it whatever you like, but it is a fact of life.

It shouldn't surprise us that people who seem otherwise decent, thoughtful, caring, and generally nice and good can also be horrible racists, or misogynists, or homophobes, or transphobes. It shouldn't surprise us that people who are progressive on some issues are staggeringly regressive on others (see all the people far left on economic matters who are unrelentingly sexist).

That's where a lot of people are baffled by the Trumpers, and I think part of the reason why we see so many Natural Geographic style Observations of the Trump Voter in his Natural Habitat style articles in the NYT and NPR and so on. There's a difficulty believing that otherwise good people can also have horrible evil in them.

We see it with abortion, clearly the driving force behind forced birth advocacy is misogyny, but to say that is to be inundated with tales of forced birth advocates the people you're talking to know personally who are otherwise very nice. Yes, they are. That's neither surprising nor evidence that they aren't motivated by misogyny.

Are the Trumpers motivated by racism? Almost universally.

Outside that can they also be otherwise normal and even good and nice? Yup, and almost all of them are.

Sure, there are a few who are just plain evil through and through. Ingrown tonails of people who hate everyone and everything and who live miserable lives. But mostly they aren't. Mostly, outside being so racist that they voted for Trump on the promise of turning America into a white Christian ethnostate, they aren't evil. The evil they nurture hasn't and doesn't seep into their brains and taint everything about them.

And that's hard to deal with. We want our opponents to be unambiguously bad guys, not people who also happen to do bad things. That's why I keep thinking that properly evil is a verb, not an adjective or noun. People aren't evil, people **DO** evil. It's an action, not a state of being.

So yes, the Trumpers are horrible racists who voted mostly in retaliation against the Obama presidency and on the hope of transforming (restoring they'd say) America to a white Christian ethnostate.

And we've got to become comfortable with the fact that they're also going to be sweethearts in interracial marriages sometimes. We've got to reconcile the evil they do with the rest of their lives and deal with that.
posted by sotonohito at 1:12 PM on March 19, 2018 [85 favorites]


Steve Bannon was running Breitbart, doing business broadcasting dangerous bullshit, at the same time he was VP at Cambridge Analytica, doing business inventing and providing fraudulent evidence for dangerous bullshit. He's not just a devout conservative, he's a canny businessman.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:14 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


That Cambridge Analytica video is like Donnie Brasco levels of riveting and terrifying. I know CA is not, like, mobsters with guns or anything but can you imagine being the undercover "Sri Lankan gentleman" in that scenario? He did a great job of teasing out information by just seeming eager and curious, too, rather than like it was a set-up, with questions like, "So, who do I pay?" He got them to talk about subcontracting, making payments to shell companies, and similar practices that keep them at arm's length from the really dirty stuff. Amazing that he made it all the way to a private meeting with Nix, who finally spilled the dirty, dirty beans.
posted by Mothlight at 1:14 PM on March 19, 2018 [37 favorites]


Talking Points Memo Exclusive: State Dept. Officials Accused Of Retaliation Handle Internal ‘Dissent Channel’
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:18 PM on March 19, 2018 [10 favorites]


sotonohito, you're so right. My wife remarked the other day that "I learned to keep my love for people separate from what they do," and it kind of blew my mind. That yes, someone could do things that are unacceptable, but yes, you can love them anyway.

That doesn't mean you should accept what they do or say uncritically. And it certainly doesn't mean that people of color (or LGBTQ folks) should be pressured to forgive bad behavior or accept bigots. But is does mean that those of us who are "mainstream" white people need to work harder to engage these people who do evil things and try to get them to stop.
posted by rikschell at 1:34 PM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


From Channel 4's @MichaelLCrick
I understand that Information Commissioner is now likely to apply for warrant tonight, and is unhappy about Facebook’s presence right now inside the Cambridge Analytica’s office

Like...Facebook's physical presence? Like agents? Could they be doing anything other than actively conspiring with CA to destroy evidence or otherwise obstruct?

....what do their uniforms look like
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:35 PM on March 19, 2018 [34 favorites]


The Verge: Facebook says it’s hired a forensics team to investigate Cambridge Analytica
Facebook says it has hired the firm Stroz Friedberg to conduct the audit. According to Facebook, Cambridge Analytica is cooperating and offering access to their servers. The professor involved has also agreed to provide an audit, while a whistleblower involved has not, the company said.

Facebook says the investigation is meant to verify claims from Cambridge Analytica and others who say the data in question has, in fact, been destroyed. “If this data still exists, it would be a grave violation of Facebook’s policies and an unacceptable violation of trust and the commitments these groups made,” Facebook said in its statement.
Yes, let's make sure none of the data remains. Privately. This is normal.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:39 PM on March 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


from the context, i think that Facebook already has people on the ground in CA's offices, doing their own investigation into the extent of the data "leak".

the commissioner is pissed because Facebook has their own reasons to destroy evidence if CA's activities could implicate them in privacy violations under UK/EU law, for example.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:39 PM on March 19, 2018 [11 favorites]


I assume the motto of the Facebook audit team is "Move Fast and Break Things"
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:41 PM on March 19, 2018 [59 favorites]


rikschell I think I mostly mean we need to learn how to stop loving people who do bad things.

And that's part of my constellation of privilege, no one I know and love so much I feel a real wrench at cutting them lose is a Trumper. Unlike many I don't have to deal with a grandmother I dearly love and have fond memories of who also happens to be a horrible racist.

The worst I've ever had it was a former director and castmate friend of mine who turned out to think that calling out racists was worse than being a racist, and that it was up to black people in a (very liberal) church to just lovingly accept with never the slightest word of criticism a man who wore Confederate flag crap to church [1]. And I was able to cut her free with only a mild twinge of regret.

I have no idea how people can, or should, deal with the evil done by people they love and can't bear to cut off. Everyone has to make their own peace with that and one person's solution won't apply to other people. I can see some people just saying fuck it and cutting off everyone, I can see others trying to embrace those they love for the other parts of them and trying to ignore the evil those people do. I won't criticize either approach.

I think ultimately mockery and ostracism is the only solution, but I sympathize with those who have deeply loved relatives they don't feel they can ostracize and cut out of their lives.

[1] she rejected utterly the idea that it was acceptable for anyone to politely ask him not to do that. To her a liberal church had to be universally accepting and she couldn't see that accepting a guy wearing racist propaganda was automatically and unavoidably unaccepting of black people. To her even the mildest of suggestions that perhaps, maybe, possibly, this person shouldn't wear Confederate flag gear would automatically turn the church into a horrible place that ostracized people just like her childhood church ostracized her for getting pregnant.
posted by sotonohito at 1:44 PM on March 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


I find Facebook's explanation for their presence one-third plausible, and two-thirds they are thoroughly, ridiculously complicit.

Sheesh, what if Zuck's notion of running for President on a Democratic ticket was solely about countering appearance of an underlying allegiance to Team Trump? I always figured their role in this was arm's-length, the same way that the Chinese company that makes MAGA hats is just doing a job for money (well, that specifically may be a bad example), but it's not looking like that anymore.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:44 PM on March 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


to me it looks like Facebook took a typical Silicon Valley laissez-faire attitude towards sharing sensitive user data and then didn't realize how badly they fucked up until it was far too late.

it's likely that they are now taking questionably legal actions to cover up the extent of their involvement in the disaster, though.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:49 PM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


Dear tech people: if you're sitting on an app that works like Facebook only you actually give a damn about things like privacy, now's the time to launch.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:49 PM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


H/t to Mike Isaac, here comes Senator Ron Wyden. Particularly interesting to me:
In 2011, Facebook entered into a consent agreement with Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Under the terms of that agreement, Facebook is required to maintain "a comprehensive privacy program that is reasonably designed to (1) address privacy risks related to the development and management of new and existing products and services for consumers, and (2) protect the privacy and confidentiality of covered information."
a. Please describe how, three years after Facebook entered into the consent order with FTC, Spectre and his company were able to download sufficiently detailed data on 50 million Facebook users without their affirmative knowledge or consent.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:55 PM on March 19, 2018 [68 favorites]


The Independent, February 2017: A US hedge-fund billionaire who helped finance Donald Trump's campaign to become US president reportedly played a key role in the campaign for Britain to leave the EU.

Robert Mercer, co-owner of right-wing news organisation Breitbart, allegedly directed his data-analytics firm Cambridge Analytica to provide expert advice to the Leave campaign.

Mr Mercer, whose firm was paid £4.8m by the Trump campaign to persuade swing voters, offered his firm's help to Ukip leader Nigel Farage for free, Leave.eu communications director Andy Wigmore told The Observer.

“They were happy to help. Because Nigel is a good friend of the Mercers," Mr Wigmore said.
...
However, the electoral commission was not informed of Mr Mercer's work. All services worth more than £7,500 must be declared.

Leave.eu declined to tell the paper why it had not declared the donation of services.

Leave.eu founder Arron Banks previously told The Observer: "AI won it for leave."

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:56 PM on March 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


That "Mr. Brexit" thing did make Trump seem strangely well-informed about the affairs of a foreign government. I wonder if somebody else had been pitching him on the idea?
posted by contraption at 2:24 PM on March 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


The Washington Post: Trump’s lawyers have turned over documents to Mueller with hopes of limiting interview scope
Trump’s legal team recently shared the documents in an effort to limit any session between the president and special counsel Robert S. Mueller III to a few select topics, the people said. The lawyers are worried that Trump, who has a penchant for making erroneous claims, would be vulnerable in an hours-long interview.
Is... is that a thing? “Sorry Mister Policeman, but my client lies a lot, maybe if I offer you some documentary evidence you’ll agree not to ask him about it?”
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:26 PM on March 19, 2018 [75 favorites]


Now hoping that Robert Mercer dies in jail too.
posted by Artw at 2:30 PM on March 19, 2018 [29 favorites]


When they said "perjury trap" I was stunned that they weren't laughed out of the room and it didn't become an instant joke by all reporters.

"As a trained lawyer are you aware that a person can avoid a perjury trap by not lying under oath?"

"Earlier you brought up the idea that questioning by Mueller would be a 'perjury trap', are you suggesting that it is literally impossible for the President to avoid lying? Does he have a psychological condition that prevents him from telling the truth?"
posted by sotonohito at 2:30 PM on March 19, 2018 [64 favorites]


The Guardian's Carole Cadwalladr: BREAKING: Facebook WAS inside Cambridge Analytica's office but have now "stood down" following dramatic intervention by UK Information Commissioner's Office..

The ICO is trying to get a warrant tonight to go in tonight. BUT no judge available...

Team being assembled for tomorrow morning...

"Won't they be deleting everything right now?"
"Hopefully not."

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:33 PM on March 19, 2018 [40 favorites]


The whole "perjury trap" thing was made up by Bill Clinton when under investigation by Starr. While that investigation was much closer to being a witch hunt than this one, it's no accident that Clinton was worried about a "perjury trap" and then went on... to perjure himself.

Trump would probably perjure himself before he even sat in the chair.
posted by Justinian at 2:36 PM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


From the Post article:

“Former US Attorney for the District of Columbia Joe diGenova will be joining our legal team later this week,” Sekulow said in a statement. [...] In 1997, DiGenova wrote a column in the Wall Street Journal arguing that the Constitution allows for the indictment of a sitting president.

Just another wish-I'd-been-spawned-into-a-less-stupid-simulation Monday.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:36 PM on March 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


So yes, the Trumpers are horrible racists who voted mostly in retaliation against the Obama presidency and on the hope of transforming (restoring they'd say) America to a white Christian ethnostate.

And we've got to become comfortable with the fact that they're also going to be sweethearts in interracial marriages sometimes. We've got to reconcile the evil they do with the rest of their lives and deal with that.


My (half) sister came into money, moved to the South, and became an evangelical Christian. She's basically raising her black granddaughter and my family is Jewish. She's still a proud Trump supporter. We don't discuss politics, ever, and we only see each other once a year at best, so that makes things easier. But in my head, I judge, and I know I'll never think of her the same way again.
posted by Ruki at 2:38 PM on March 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


In 1997, DiGenova wrote a column in the Wall Street Journal arguing that the Constitution allows for the indictment of a sitting president.

presumably a major pillar of the defense he assembles will be the assertion that the Constitution does not allow for the indictment of a sitting president.
posted by murphy slaw at 2:39 PM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


Carole Cadwalladr -

BREAKING: Facebook WAS inside Cambridge Analytica's office but have now "stood down" following dramatic intervention by UK Information Commissioner's Office..

This is getting pretty Hollywood.
posted by Devonian at 2:39 PM on March 19, 2018 [15 favorites]


Carole Cadwalladr is reporting that they can't find a judge to issue a warrant for tonight and are prepping for the morning, but Channel 4 has purportedly said they did get a warrant for tonight and are going to entire. So who knows?
posted by Justinian at 2:43 PM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I don't buy the 'can't get a judge' line - you call them and get them out of bed at 2AM if you need to. That's practically in the job description.
posted by Devonian at 2:46 PM on March 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


"We didn't get a warrant, we'll be back first thing tomorrow" sounds like a great way to catch people hastily shoveling servers into a bonfire late at night.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 2:46 PM on March 19, 2018 [52 favorites]


In 1997, DiGenova wrote a column in the Wall Street Journal arguing that the Constitution allows for the indictment of a sitting president.

But with a dramatic courtroom manoeuvre, legal genius DiGenova deftly proves the President is unindictable as long as he is standing up
posted by saturday_morning at 2:46 PM on March 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


H/t to Mike Isaac, here comes Senator Ron Wyden

Probably of no importance, but why is he referring to the author of that Facebook app as "Aleksandr Spectre"? I'm pretty sure the name I've read previously was Aleksandr Kogan (see this Facebook Newsroom article, for example).
posted by ringu0 at 2:48 PM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


Aleksandr Spectre is his villainous alter-ego. I wish I was kidding.
posted by theodolite at 2:49 PM on March 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


Same dude.

Cambridge Analytica: When We Said Artificial Intelligence, We Meant Intelligence That Is Artificial
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:50 PM on March 19, 2018 [12 favorites]


The Mahleur lot walked... the rule of law is an extremely precarious thing in America right now.

I agree, but the Malheur takeover bunch didn't walk. For one thing, a couple pled guilty which has held up. Then, 4 men were convicted of both felonies and misdemeanors in the case.

And the Bundy's themselves all served at least two years in jail awaiting trial.
posted by msalt at 2:53 PM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


BREAKING: Facebook WAS inside Cambridge Analytica's office but have now "stood down" following dramatic intervention by UK Information Commissioner's Office..

This is getting pretty Hollywood.



As someone who's been filling in those ICO registration forms every year since they've been around. Well it's like discovering my local library has a militant SWAT capability.

Aleksandr Spectre is his villainous alter-ego.

The link I posted on the CA thread actually seemed to show that most of his research up until CA was into kindness and pro-social behaviour. Who hurt you Aleksandr? was it Jordan Peterson?
posted by Buntix at 2:58 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


From The Guardian piece on Aleksandr Kogan/Spectre:
While he was helping turn Facebook profiles into a political tool he was also an associate professor at St Petersburg State University, taking Russian government grants to fund other research into social media. “Stress, health, and psychological wellbeing in social networks: cross-cultural investigation” was the title of one piece of research. Online posts showed Kogan lecturing in Russian. One talk was called: “New methods of communication as an effective political instrument”.
...
Kogan appears to have largely kept the work private. Colleagues said they had not heard about the post in St Petersburg. “I am very surprised by that. No one knew,” one academic who asked not to be named told the Observer. Russia is not mentioned in a 10-page CV Kogan posted on a university website in 2015. The CV lists undergraduate prizes and grants of a few thousand dollars and links to dozens of media interviews.

One Cambridge Analytica employee mentioned Kogan’s Russian work in an email to Nix in March 2014 discussing a pitch to a Caribbean nation for a security contract, including “criminal psychographic profiling via intercepts”.

“We may want to either loop in or find out a bit more about the interesting work Alex Kogan has been doing for the Russians and see how/if it applies,” the colleague wrote.

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:01 PM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Where did he get his spyware?
posted by Artw at 3:04 PM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


Now hoping that Robert Mercer dies in jail too

I think Robert Mercer can’t actually die until you stab his personal copy of The Fountainhead with a fang from Roko’s Basilisk.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:06 PM on March 19, 2018 [121 favorites]



I was just about to ask if and how CA was related to Russia because I wasn't sure if I had missed something somewhere. It's hard to keep up and all the links straight.

The East Manitoba RJKC posted the above comment re. Kogan.

Oh. I see. And potentially wow and more wow. Nothing hinky going on there.

This is possibly spy/agent/asset territory yes?
posted by Jalliah at 3:08 PM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


@karoun: Sen. Dianne Feinstein just told reporters, twice, that she doesn’t think bills to protect the special counsel are necessary because firing him is such a no-go zone. That puts her very much at odds with other Dems, in the same place as many in the GOP.

I'd like to see the actual quote, but she keeps doing this, and it's just inexplicable. And then we all call her office and she fixes it a few hours later. This is not a good pattern for a California Senator to be stuck in.
posted by zachlipton at 3:09 PM on March 19, 2018 [82 favorites]


It's interesting that the meme about Trump working with Bond villains happened before we had heard about Dr Spectre of Cambridge and St Petersburg, Manipulator of Minds
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:10 PM on March 19, 2018 [20 favorites]


Sen. Dianne Feinstein just told reporters, twice, that she doesn’t think bills to protect the special counsel are necessary because firing him is such a no-go zone.

Does she not lock her doors because stealing is widely considered to be wrong?
posted by leotrotsky at 3:12 PM on March 19, 2018 [38 favorites]


Feinstein needs to get Cynthia-Nixoned in the primaries.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:13 PM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


And we've got to become comfortable with the fact that they're also going to be sweethearts in interracial marriages sometimes. We've got to reconcile the evil they do with the rest of their lives and deal with that.

I think there's this thing, which is more common on the left but is not exclusive to it, to think that if someone is a Good Person, receiving Correct Information, that they will just kind of naturally agree, that there's no other way forward but agreeing, at least on the "big stuff", and that any divergence is the result of "evil" or them being "Bad People".

And I think this just isn't true - or to the extent it's true, it isn't complete. Because even good people who are receiving correct information will have different interests. And sometimes those interests will align, but sometimes they won't. And the goal shouldn't be "I'm going to give those people the Correct Information and then they will Agree With Me." The goal should be, "I'm going to get those people the Correct Information and try to make sure the route to their goals harms as few people as possible and isn't coming from a place of bias or trying to harm others."

The example that was given by cybercoitus interruptus wasn't that of someone who is necessarily a racist or who even shows any signs of evil. It was of someone who thinks Trump is the "smartest man in the world!" with lots of businesses and accomplishments, and who was scared during Obama's presidency. There could be a lot of reasons for that, and some of them may be valid. (I mean, not the part about Trump's intelligence, but there were legitimate reasons to have concern about the Obama presidency).

And if that guy has any racially prejudicial opinions, it would be great to purge him of them, but even then, he might still support right-populism, and we have to understand and be okay with that. The goal isn't "once everyone learns The Truth, we will have One Government", the goal is that given two competing ideas for the heart of America, neither of them will be poisoned by fascism or racism.
posted by corb at 3:14 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Just because it got steamrolled by the inevitable Next Shit Circus thing, this is still pretty amazing (from wwaaayy up yonder, man)

Stormy's lawyer is on with Jake Tapper.

@amandawgolden (CNN)
.@jaketapper: "Is there anything in the litany of accusations, you would call them facts, that surround this case that happened while Donald Trump was President?"
@MichaelAvenatti: "Yes."


So much criming.
posted by petebest at 3:15 PM on March 19, 2018 [33 favorites]


Carole Cadwalladr is chronicling all the times since 2015 Facebook denied there was any problem with Cambridge Analytica, before suddenly rushing an audit and legal team to their offices today, shortly before the Information Commissioner's Office told them to gtfo.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:22 PM on March 19, 2018 [39 favorites]




NYT, NICOLE PERLROTH, SHEERA FRENKEL and SCOTT SHANE: Facebook Security Chief Said to Leave After Clashes Over Disinformation

"Facebook’s chief information security officer, Alex Stamos, will leave the company after internal disagreements over how the social network should deal with its role in spreading disinformation, according to current and former employees briefed on the matter.

Mr. Stamos had been a strong advocate inside the company for investigating and disclosing Russian activity on Facebook, often to the consternation of other top executives, including Sheryl Sandberg, the social network’s chief operating officer, according to the current and former employees, who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters."
posted by reductiondesign at 3:27 PM on March 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States cannot be reversed, although his tenure can and should be truncated.

The referendum on Britain leaving the European Union absolutely can be reversed, and it is vital that Brexit plans be put on hold, indefinitely. Or at least, "until we figure out what the hell is going on".
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [56 favorites]


"Mr. Stamos had been a strong advocate inside the company for investigating and disclosing Russian activity on Facebook"

FB's legal counsel must be freaking out about this sort of stuff. At the price of about 1000$/hour, adding up all the associates.
posted by mikelieman at 3:30 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Re: CA and the UK developments: I don't get this whole thing with announcing warrants before they're served? Was this more like an unauthorized media leak of a warrant process rather than an announcement from the authorities?

Kinda-sorta along parallel lines of thought: Any chance maybe the reluctance to put together legislation protecting Mueller is maybe because the start of such legislation would prompt Trump to torpedo Mueller before the legislation passed? Laws don't happen fast or with much surprise. I don't know how quickly something like that could be passed through (although maybe as a last-minute amendment to something right before voting?).
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:31 PM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Mahleur lot walked... the rule of law is an extremely precarious thing in America right now.

I agree, but the Malheur takeover bunch didn't walk. For one thing, a couple pled guilty which has held up. Then, 4 men were convicted of both felonies and misdemeanors in the case.


Don't forget there was also one who was shot dead.
posted by srboisvert at 3:33 PM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


I remember many Scaramuccis back, when Bannon was still in the White House, and word was he was not happy at all about Mueller's team starting to ask around about Cambridge Analytica. I wonder how many conversations he's had with his lawyer over the past few days.
posted by azpenguin at 3:33 PM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


Me just now: "Aleksandr Kogan. Didn't I say something about it being weird that a guy with a Russian name was working with Cambridge Analytica, one time, and get dinged for being prejudiced against Russians? I suppose it was partly prejudice, even though I was mostly suspicious because of the link to the Trump campaign, and as it turns out... But what did I say about him anyway?" [searches MeFi profile]

Me on January 27, 2017:
I've been thinking this election was won on social media, and have been giving Putin credit for being the genius who figured out that was possible. Mr. Russian Intelligence guy with his "kompromat" and his "fake news" and his "troll army" and his bots and his hackers and his search engine optimization and his propaganda wars, understood the information age better than we did. By all accounts Russians have been living in an alternate "reality" for some time anyway, all pretending everything is fine, and Putin helping them pretend.

But maybe I haven't been giving Steve Bannon enough credit. He's on the board of this company Cambridge Analytica which apparently can predict your age, race, skin color, religion, etc from your Facebook likes. Maybe he's the genius.

Or maybe there's a connection. There is definitely an ideological overlap. And of course American isolation is very much in Putin's interest. (Or American war with China, even better.) And Russia might be one of the few places that could (temporarily at least) benefit from climate change.

And I read that story about the origin of Cambridge Analytica and I can't help but wonder who this Aleksandr Kogan is, and whether he knows anyone important in Russia.

Goddamn this is freaking me out. I feel like I went to bed one night and woke up in a Neal Stephenson dystopia.
Welp.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:33 PM on March 19, 2018 [99 favorites]


Things continue to get worse.

CNN: Mississippi bans abortions at 15 weeks
With a swipe of a pen Monday, Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant signed into law a bill that prevents women from getting abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. His state, effective immediately, now holds the distinction of having the earliest abortion ban in the nation.
posted by hanov3r at 3:35 PM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


I don't get this whole thing with announcing warrants before they're served?

The ICO is about the most incompetent, toothless, underfunded organisation it is possible to imagine, basically. (Disclaimer: I don't know anything about the upcoming data protection laws, maybe they'll get better).
posted by threetwentytwo at 3:36 PM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


The Washington Post: Trump prepared to hit China with $60 billion in tariffs by Friday, doubling aides’ earlier proposal

sorry about the slow news day guys
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:37 PM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


I don't know how quickly something like that could be passed through (although maybe as a last-minute amendment to something right before voting?).

Even if they whipped something up and voted to pass it immediately, Trump would have ten days (excluding Sundays) to decide whether to veto it or not. After ten days, it would become law without his signature, or if he vetoed it, they would have to vote to override. So either way he'd have a week and a half to fire Mueller before such a bill became law.
posted by The Tensor at 3:37 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


I'd like to see the actual quote, but she keeps doing this, and it's just inexplicable.

I can't wait to vote for her (Democratic) opponent. Go home, Senator Feinstein, you're... I don't know. Drunk would at least make this understandable. Blinded by decades of privilege perhaps?
posted by Justinian at 3:44 PM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Sen. Dianne Feinstein just told reporters, twice, that she doesn’t think bills to protect the special counsel are necessary because firing him is such a no-go zone.

Ya know, they passed a law saying trump had to enact sanctions against Russia and he just ignored it. So passing a law against firing Mueller may be necessary, but also akin to tilting at windmills. We have a president who considers himself above the law.
posted by Miss Cellania at 3:46 PM on March 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Goddamn this is freaking me out. I feel like I went to bed one night and woke up in a Neal Stephenson dystopia

Past me: it’s ok, it can’t be that bad, your worst nightmares are never really true

Present me: hahaha you fucking innocent

Future me: hold my beer.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:51 PM on March 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


Ya know, they passed a law saying trump had to enact sanctions against Russia and he just ignored it.

Yes, because that law had no enforcement mechanism.

The proposed legislation allows the Special Counsel to contest an illegitimate dismissal in court. The current law just says, "can only be fired for cause" and doesn't give anyone a cause of action.
posted by suelac at 3:52 PM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


What does Julian Assange have to say about all this?

Facebook scandal widens: Obama campaign's Carol Davidsen admits Democrats sucked out "the entire social network of the US", kept the data and still have it. [link to video from 2015]
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:52 PM on March 19, 2018


@ItsMeCathi
These people have ties to Cambridge Analytica.

The Mercers
Steve Bannon
Rudy Giuliani
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Tom Cotton
John Bolton
Thom Tillis
Kellyanne Conway
Julian Assange
Hogan Gidley
David Bossie
Scott Brown


@carolecadwalla
And Nigel Farage

@JulianAssange
What's my tie to Cambridge Analytica you libelous fraud?

@lars_j_lindahl
Who are you calling a fraud? Why don't you step outside and say that again?
posted by Artw at 4:03 PM on March 19, 2018 [133 favorites]


In case you needed a reminder: Trump Data Guru: I Tried to Team Up With Julian Assange, in which Alexander Nix, who runs the place, contacted WikiLeaks about Clinton's emails.

You're not even a wiki fraud.
posted by zachlipton at 4:08 PM on March 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


AFAIK he can't actually fire Mueller; only the AG can do that - or in this case, Rosenstein, since the AG recused himself.

So what he could do, is throw out Sessions, appoint a new AG, wait for Senate confirmation - while Congress rushes to pass a law that prevents firing of a special prosecutor without special reasons. He could try one of the dodgy options to appoint someone without Senate approval, but only one of those is quick, and it involves him grabbing a successor from another department, someone who's already got Senate confirmation.

All of his options to fire Mueller start with "fire Sessions." If his team isn't supportive of this, it's likely all they have to do to delay a replacement is avoid helping him with the correct paperwork.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:09 PM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


Fuck. What are the odds, given the apparent involvement in organized crime in some of this, that the women sent to entrap these politicians are trafficked?
posted by schadenfrau at 4:10 PM on March 19, 2018 [32 favorites]


Thom Tillis is from my hometown. Never have I so wanted to see someone from Cornelius, NC lose everything and be sent to prison for life. For those unfamiliar with this shitbag, before he got himself elected to the US Senate with CA's help, he was the speaker of the state House, responsible for basically every horrible thing you've heard about NC over the past 8 years: the gerrymandering, the violations of voting rights, the anti-marriage equality amendment to the state constitution, the gutting of the state university system, the over-ruling of local zoning restrictions designed to make life better for people, the ban on talking about climate change, the attempt to stack the state courts, the attempt to take state control of Charlotte's airport and Asheville's drinking water conservation area, etc. etc. etc. Just like impeaching Trump tomorrow wouldn't immediately repair all the damage to our country, seeing Tillis go to prison wouldn't right all of the wrongs in NC, but it sure would put a smile on my face.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:11 PM on March 19, 2018 [57 favorites]


behold the field in which Stopped Clock Jennifer Rubin sows her fucks: it is barren

Is this all that Republicans will do all year? Are they kidding?
It’s a measure of our low expectations of Congress that the working assumption around Capitol Hill is that the gigantic spending bill will be the “last chance to settle dozens of long-running policy fights.” You see, there won’t be more chances to pass legislation of any consequence. (The Hill reports that “because the spending bill is also the last major piece of legislation likely to pass before the midterms, lawmakers are scrambling to throw in other measures.”)

Wait. It’s only March. They cannot find the time between now and the November elections to put together an infrastructure bill? A fix for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program? Legislation to protect our electoral system from sabotage or to protect the special counsel from being fired? Apparently not. Their work will be done if they pass the spending bill, they are telling us.

This alone should be reason to throw the Senate and House majorities out of office. No one else in America can tell their boss in April that they are in essence too busy to do their job through Thanksgiving.



In short, if Congress does virtually nothing but the tax cuts, ordinary voters — aside from feeling chagrin at Republicans’ unwillingness to check an increasingly out-of-control president — might conclude that its members have failed to address many of the issues near and dear to them, including a big infrastructure bill, reasonable gun control, relief from rising health-care costs and immigration. Republicans might consider putting their noses to the grindstone and solving some of these big issues. If not, they’ll hand Democrats the powerful argument that they’d get a lot more done than Republicans have. It wouldn’t be hard.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:12 PM on March 19, 2018 [45 favorites]


All of his options to fire Mueller start with "fire Sessions."

Couldn't he instead fire Rosenstein?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:12 PM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


@frankthorp: Q: Why are you so confident that Trump won't fire Mueller? HATCH: "Well, because I think it would be the stupidest thing that anybody could do."

Welp.
posted by zachlipton at 4:15 PM on March 19, 2018 [87 favorites]


orrin hatch, co-sponsor of the Hold The President's Beer Act of 2018
posted by murphy slaw at 4:16 PM on March 19, 2018 [77 favorites]


Trump prepared to hit China with $60 billion in tariffs by Friday, doubling aides’ earlier proposal
Oceania has always been at (trade) war with Eastasia.
posted by rc3spencer at 4:22 PM on March 19, 2018 [2 favorites]


If Trump fires Mueller, Republicans will be, like, really disappointed (Alexandra Petri, WaPo)
[…] there is no cause for alarm. Should the president attempt such a course, the Republicans who hold power in Congress have made it clear that they will … be disappointed.

One or two even have definite plans to compose a strongly worded letter to the president and think very, very hard about sending it. Another handful will go so far as to whisper to some reeds growing just on the edge of the great swamp that they think this idea is “very bad, and a travesty of our values.”

With one voice, Republicans in Congress have made it clear that if the president takes this extreme step, they will not be afraid to defy him by appearing on a cable news channel and saying something noncommittal. As they are doing right now. For instance, Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” “If he tried to do that [fire Mueller], that would be the beginning of the end of his presidency.” Beware, President Trump! If you continue down your present course, there is every reason to believe that Graham may even go so far as to write a memoir where he calls this “a dark, dark moment for this country, when people should have spoken up.”
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:23 PM on March 19, 2018 [27 favorites]


Pony request: Could we stop referring to Cambridge Analytica as "CA?"

It's already confusing enough that it's both a state and country abbreviation.
"CamAnal" was good, whoever did that.
posted by aspersioncast at 4:27 PM on March 19, 2018 [52 favorites]


I'm sorry, I know we're supposed to be, like, enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio of the thread by posting quality content, but I'm finding that the news this day is getting ahead of my ability to really wrap my head around it.

Like, I know who all the players are, and I understand perfectly well what deeds are alleged to have been committed, and I even have some inkling as to the implications thereof. What I'm struggling with is that this is actually happening. To us, an "us" that includes me. Now, in real time.

I feel like things are hurtling toward some kind of historical singularity, an event horizon past which none of our experiences and conventions will guide us in the slightest, or indeed make any sense at all. It's a rush, for sure, but I don't think I like it very much. (I'm reliably told that 1968 was still weirder and scarier than this, and right now I can imagine that least of all.)
posted by adamgreenfield at 4:31 PM on March 19, 2018 [80 favorites]


(Depending on your proclivities, you might hesitate before googling "camanal".)

ALL OF THIS IS A MAJOR SCANDAL. EVERY PIECE OF IT.

And yet.
posted by maxwelton at 4:32 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Pando Daily article from January, 10th 2017:
Worried about Facebook's coziness with Trump? Watch what Alex Stamos does next
"It’s certainly true to say that Stamos is a high ranking Facebook exec, but he’s also something else: The canary in the coal mine. Anyone worried about Zuckerberg and Sandberg’s willingness to cosy up to Trump (and in Zuck’s case, his increasingly weird willingess to cosy up to ultra-nationalist demagogues and authoritarian regimes generally) should keep a very close eye on what Stamos does next [...]

Should Stamos suddenly get “poached” by another company or decide to leave Facebook for some other unspecified reason, the rest of us should probably take that as a cue to get our data as far away from Mark Zuckerberg’s servers as possible."
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:33 PM on March 19, 2018 [29 favorites]


Yeah, Feinstein's already walked it back on Twitter:
I’ve said all along that Mueller is protected by DOJ regs from being fired. The regs state Mueller can ONLY be fired for cause, and Rosenstein has said REPEATEDLY there is no cause. Rules are clear, but I also support legislation to codify this protection.
Anyway, today's news makes me feel like a nameless background extra in an establishing shot in some over the top political thriller. Not enjoying it, tbh.
posted by yasaman at 4:34 PM on March 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


I'm still baffled that anyone in the UK still thinks it's smart to take a meeting with an Asian or Middle Eastern country, and speak clearly into the camera about all the crimes they've done.

The sting that caught Cambridge Analytica is textbook for British journalism. There's someone who falls for it every couple of years, and usually it's dipshit Lords or something who should know better.
posted by Merus at 4:35 PM on March 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


The regs state Mueller can ONLY be fired for cause, and Rosenstein has said REPEATEDLY there is no cause

Which is why Fox News and devin nunes has spent so much time trying to paint this as a political witchhunt, so that they have a pretense to stand in as the cause for firing him. I mean it’s obvious what the point of all that bullshit has been, DiFi
posted by dis_integration at 4:38 PM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Yeah, there are enough gray areas where "cause" can be engineered, which is why we need Ultimate Squares like Mueller in these positions. McCabe I will be able to take, because he's in the deception business, but federal prosecutors seem to mostly Schloz themselves out before they get as high as Mueller. Was Kenneth Starr a hack before he got his big break?
posted by rhizome at 4:42 PM on March 19, 2018


Justice Department says it's considering public disclosure of Carter Page surveillance order

The DOJ hasn't forgotten and it looks like it intends to call Trump's bluff.
posted by Talez at 4:42 PM on March 19, 2018 [24 favorites]


Can’t Trump just order them to not declassify it?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:45 PM on March 19, 2018


Cambridge Analytical claims to have ratfucked over 200 elections, world wide. Half the world has been gaslighted into fascism by a cabal of plutocrats.

I’m with adamgreenfield. I feel like I did watching the aftermath of 9/11 unfold. The likely future seems so absurdly terrible that I can’t quite believe it will happen, and yet each and every day the feeling of inevitability draws tighter around my neck.
posted by schadenfrau at 4:49 PM on March 19, 2018 [100 favorites]


The hiring of DiGenova may mean that the Trump team is betting that its only real recourse -- the only strategy that might actually pull their asses out of this fire -- is the same strategy they've been leaning on this whole time: America, who are you going to choose to believe? If they convince a critical mass of Americans to choose Trump Reality and reject all evidence to the contrary, then they will sidestep the whole thing. The truth has never been on Donald Trump's side, so his failsafe has always been to spew out greater and greater torrents of bullshit.
...Flynn, having lied to the FBI and the vice president about his contacts with Russians, had a slew of other problematic entanglements. Previously unreported documents, including Pentagon contracts, emails and internal company papers, point to overlapping business conflicts around the world.
Mueller has been digging into this fucked up mess for the better part of a year now, along with sixteen prosecutors and a couple dozen other investigators. I wonder if their shovels are even *close* to hitting bedrock. No matter where you dig, or how deep you dig, every shovelful keeps turning up more shit. I'm worried that Mueller will get canned before he fully excavates this thing and gets a picture of its true scope and depth.
posted by Vic Morrow's Personal Vietnam at 4:58 PM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


The whole "perjury trap" thing was made up by Bill Clinton when under investigation by Starr.

Defense lawyer and civil rights advocate Ken White over at Popehat is very firm about the reality of perjury traps and, because he is a better (or at least more consistent) person than me, says Donald Trump Shouldn’t Talk to the Feds.

My takeaway:
• Perjury traps are real
• Always seek legal advice before agreeing to talk to the police
• Unless you are a very smart person with the best words who will tell them there is NO COLLUSION
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:01 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


Should Stamos suddenly get “poached” by another company or decide to leave Facebook for some other unspecified reason, the rest of us should probably take that as a cue to get our data as far away from Mark Zuckerberg’s servers as possible."

WHELP
posted by EatTheWeek at 5:02 PM on March 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Facebook has 2.2 billion users world wide. How many countries does it operate in?

Did Cambridge Analytica use Facebook or its subsidiary networks in all of those 200 elections?

How much of Facebook’s advertising revenue comes from comes from entities like Cambridge Analytica?

How much damage have these people wrought on the world?
posted by schadenfrau at 5:04 PM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]




Is Cambridge Analytica a proxy for the Russian state? How many elections did Russia interfere with?

Is each occurance an act...of...

Oh holy fuck. Just...goddammit.
posted by schadenfrau at 5:11 PM on March 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


Andy Borowitz (@BorowitzReport): Trump wants drug dealers executed. Shouldn’t drug dealers just demand that the investigation of them be dropped?
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:12 PM on March 19, 2018 [37 favorites]


scaryblackdeath: Any chance maybe the reluctance to put together legislation protecting Mueller is maybe because the start of such legislation would prompt Trump to torpedo Mueller before the legislation passed?

I share this worry. Trump's own lack of focus is a small blessing. His primary source of information, Fox News, rarely discusses the investigation at all. For several hours a day, Robert Mueller ceases to exist for him. Legislation would perhaps force Trump to confront the issue, rather than let his lawyers convince him that all this fuss will boil down soon enough. But at the same time, these days those lawyers (try as they may) seem to have less and less hold over his mental state, so who knows?

Meanwhile, I'm not really sure why Sessions can't just… fire Mueller like he fired McCabe. Like, he makes some noises that Mueller has a "conflict of interest" or just lies that he has a bunch of unpaid parking tickets or whatever, something plausibly unrelated to the investigation itself. What would happen if Sessions did that? I understand that he "can't", but what actually would happen?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:15 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


That Andy Borowitz! What a laff riot.
posted by adamgreenfield at 5:16 PM on March 19, 2018 [19 favorites]


I've been on a shoot all day and this is from a while ago, but the previous discussion on how all these Republicans don't know any better because they've been indoctrinated by Fox and the RW mediaverse is kinda bullshit. They reality shopped to find the source that will confirm their hate, bigotry and biases. Fox didn't create all of this, it gave an outlet to many awful people looking for an excuse. Did it whip up these people even more? Sure, but they made the choice to be ill-informed, to be lied to, because in many cases it's what they wanted to hear. I'm a white straight guy and I'm still constantly amazed how white people get the benefit of the doubt and ready made excuse all the fucking time for their bad choices and bad behavior.
posted by chris24 at 5:24 PM on March 19, 2018 [48 favorites]


ratfucked over 200 elections, world wide

Well you know. In among those claims they said they'd done something weird with rumour during 2007 elections in Nigeria and...nah. They're inflating their portfolio by making shit up.

Martin Rowson has a cartoon out today in the Guardian, everything's happening in front of a green curtain per Wizard of Oz. I think a huge component of this odd rightwards movement is nothing more than smoke and mirrors, bots and multiple socks. All very much in the service of maximum profit.
posted by glasseyes at 5:28 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


Defense lawyer and civil rights advocate Ken White over at Popehat is very firm about the reality of perjury traps and, because he is a better (or at least more consistent) person than me, says Donald Trump Shouldn’t Talk to the Feds.

Mueller is still playing nice and letting Trump discuss the terms of a voluntary interview. But Trump can't refuse to talk if (when) he's subpoenaed, he has the right to take the 5th like any other American. If he wants to take the 5th on questions of whether he colluded with a forgien intelligence service to steal the election, fine, but we should, and Congress should, interpret that as an admission of (political, if not strictly legal) guilt and immediately start impeachment (lol they won't). White says this better than me:
If the president refuses to submit to a voluntary interview, Special Counsel Mueller could conceivably subpoena him to testify before the grand jury. That would require Mueller to tip his hand about the president's precise status: Department of Justice regulations require prosecutors to warn targets or subjects of their Fifth Amendment rights when subpoenaing them before a grand jury, and to advise targets of their status as targets. Trump might defy such a subpoena, and Mueller might seek to enforce it in court. The Supreme Court's decision in Clinton v. Jones suggests that the president is not immune from such subpoenas, even if there may be ambiguity about the exact way they can be enforced and the precise privileges the president might assert. This would be a spectacle and a constitutional crisis. But so would a clamor for an impeachment proceeding premised on lies to the FBI or perjury under oath. Submitting voluntarily to an interview with the special counsel does not prevent the spectacle or crisis; it merely hastens it and changes its nature from a struggle over presidential privilege and immunity to a struggle over the consequences of lying.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


Why Congress Must Act Now to Protect Robert Mueller (John Cassidy | The New Yorker)
The United States may be on the brink of a constitutional crisis. After three days of Presidential attacks on the investigation being carried out by the special counsel Robert Mueller, it seems clear—despite a public assurance from one of Donald Trump’s lawyers that the President isn’t currently considering firing Mueller—that the Trump-Russia story has entered a more volatile and dangerous phase. As the tension mounts, it’s essential that Congress step in to protect Mueller before it’s too late.

... One can understand why Trump might be nervous about experienced prosecutors like Weissmann digging around in his finances, and that’s why Congress needs to protect the special counsel against the President’s diktats. Under current law, there is no apparent redress if Trump can persuade someone at the Justice Department to fire Mueller for “good cause,” however specious that cause may be. There have been, however, two bipartisan bills put forward in Congress that would allow Mueller to challenge such a dismissal before a federal court consisting of three federal judges.

For months, these bills have been stalled in the Senate Judiciary Committee, which is under the chairmanship of Chuck Grassley, of Iowa. Over the weekend, even as a few Republicans, such as Graham and John McCain, emphasized the importance of allowing Mueller to finish his job, there was no sign of Grassley or any other prominent Republican leader agreeing to push through some legislation before Trump can act. The Washington Post reported that G.O.P. leaders “dodged direct questions … about the fate of the bills in light of the president’s Twitter tirade.”

In an informative post devoted to this issue at the Lawfare blog on Monday, Steve Vladeck, a professor at the University of Texas School of Law, noted that, for those Republicans who “actually want to ensure that the special counsel’s investigation continues unimpeded and don’t just want to look good to their constituents, there’s an easy way to do more than just threatening the president in tweets and talk-show interviews: Pass this legislation.” Vladeck’s argument is spot-on. When the history of the Trump era is written, it won’t be kind to this President’s enablers, and that applies to the passive enablers as well as the active ones.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:38 PM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


Re: Facebook CIO departure His group, which once had 120 people, now has three, the current and former employees said.

Damn.
posted by Annika Cicada at 5:59 PM on March 19, 2018 [9 favorites]


Probably all part of the Facebook effort to replace humans that might notice problems with dumb algorithms that won’t.
posted by Artw at 6:06 PM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]




Haven't seen this on the Blue yet. Forgive me if it's a double:
Why Mueller’s findings in the Trump-Russia probe may never see the light of day [Vox]
posted by CCBC at 6:16 PM on March 19, 2018


Intercept: Before He Was FBI Director, Chris Wray Supervised an Investigation That Found Erik Prince Likely Broke U.S. Law

[Wray] supervised a team of lawyers that informed the Justice Department that Blackwater founder Erik Prince had likely violated U.S. law while trying to sell secretly modified paramilitary attack aircraft to Azerbaijan’s military.

Wray and Robert Hur, now a senior Justice Department official, were both partners at the powerhouse law firm King & Spalding in 2015 when officials at Prince’s Hong Kong-based logistics company, Frontier Services Group, discovered suspicious activity by Prince over the proposed sale of the planes. Hur is currently the top lieutenant to Rod Rosenstein, the deputy attorney general. At King & Spalding, he was one of the lead lawyers on the Prince investigation.


At the very least it seems like Wray and Hur are aware that Prince is a supervillain. It's a start.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [23 favorites]


What action, if any, the Justice Department took after Wray’s team shared their initial findings has not been made public. “We were perplexed by the lack of immediate action” by the State and Justice departments, the former senior FSG official told The Intercept, adding that he and others at the company got the impression that “nobody wanted to dig into this until after the [2016] election.”

Thaaaaat sounds familiar.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:35 PM on March 19, 2018 [13 favorites]


NPR continues to dedicate all its energies to normalizing fascism.

Ex-CIA thug: Gina Haspel Used To Work For Me. She's A Great Choice For CIA Director

Includes variations on "she was only following orders," "if torture is so wrong why didn't Congress stop her," and the completely baseless "maybe she'll moderate Trump." the closer:

I know this is all starting to sound Pollyanna-ish, but we should all hope Haspel becomes a Trump whisperer. Who knows, she may talk him out of going back down the path of enhanced interrogation.

Less Pollyanna-ish than Pinochet-ish. Fuck you Bob Baer and fuck you NPR.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:40 PM on March 19, 2018 [84 favorites]


I do not know what Haspel truly thought or thinks about torture today, or even whether she, like me, believes it doesn't work.

wow you should probably get that checked out before you write op-eds effusively praising her nomination
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:43 PM on March 19, 2018 [84 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate -- Even vulnerable Republicans are going all in on support from Trump.

** 2018 House -- Doing our weekly generic ballot check-in, the 538 average stands at D+9.4 (48.5/39.1).

** Odds & ends:
-- Mentioned earlier, both cases brought by the Pennsylvania GOP in an effort to stop the PA Supreme Court-ordered redistricting failed today. There are no further legal avenues to pursue, the House elections will use the new lines. These are estimated to be roughly worth two more seats to the Dems (who would likely have picked up a couple anyway, due to environment).

-- Oral arguments wrapped up in the Kobach voter fraud case. Again, it did not go very well for Kobach.

-- WA signed into law today laws enacting same day registration, automatic voter registration, pre-registration for 16&17 year olds, changes that should improve minority representation, and new campaign finance requirements. State legislatures matter!

-- Mentioned earlier, Cynthia Nixon announced she was running for the Dem nomination for NY governor. Early polling shows gov Cuomo far in the lead, but we shall see. (Mefites of a certain age may be amused to recall she was in Tanner '88)
****
No R-vs-D special elections tomorrow, but we do have the Illinois primaries. Of interest are the IL-03 Dem primary, and both primaries for governor. Here is a guide from DKE. Cook County (Chicago) early voting is way up from 2014, fwiw.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:51 PM on March 19, 2018 [30 favorites]


If you don't want to lie you don't have to say anything. As was said on Pod Save America, calling an interview a perjury trap is like calling a bank a bank robbing trap.
posted by localhuman at 7:30 PM on March 19, 2018 [36 favorites]


Nothing would better represent the BEST POSSIBLE post-Trump America than a "celebrity candidate" who is honest, female, liberal and has the last name Nixon.
posted by oneswellfoop at 7:31 PM on March 19, 2018 [34 favorites]


Mentioned earlier, Cynthia Nixon announced she was running for the Dem nomination for NY governor. Early polling shows gov Cuomo far in the lead, but we shall see. (Mefites of a certain age may be amused to recall she was in Tanner '88

Teachout, one of the leading progressive voice in the state also said she supports her as an advocate and education activist and now I’m at the odd spot of supporting someone who was in Hannibal cause apparently I can manifest thoughts into reality now.

Anyway. It’s pretty easy to go forward, it’s as simple as ABC, Anyone But Cuomo.
posted by The Whelk at 7:32 PM on March 19, 2018 [16 favorites]


The Kansas City Star has a summary of the Kobach trial. Kobach had a bad day in court today, but tomorrow he may have a worse one:

Robinson will also preside over a contempt hearing for Kobach Tuesday.

The ACLU alleges that Kobach has failed to comply with a previous order in the case that requires him to treat voters who have not provided proof of citizenship the same as other registered voters until the judge rules.

A January filing from the ACLU also contends that Kobach’s office has refused to correct information in its manual for county election officers on how to handle these voters, who were allowed to cast ballots in the 2016 election under the order.

Kobach could face fines or other punishment if the judge agrees that he has flouted the previous order.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:35 PM on March 19, 2018 [27 favorites]


Anyway the Go Cynthia link
posted by The Whelk at 7:37 PM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


Teachout, one of the leading progressive voice in the state also said she supports her as an advocate and education activist

Teachout is listed as Nixon's campaign treasurer.

NIXON'S THE ONE

(or NIXON - NOW MORE THAN EVER)
posted by Chrysostom at 7:40 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


If they convince a critical mass of Americans to choose Trump Reality and reject all evidence to the contrary, then they will sidestep the whole thing.

Monmouth Poll: 74% of Americans believe in the existence of a "Deep State"--"a group of unelected gov & military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy." 53% are worried about it. 53% think gov spying on Americans is widespread.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:42 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


That’s...that’s a good ad.

I’m...excited? About Cynthia Nixon?

WHICH IS TERRIFYING I NEVER WANT TO BE EXCITED AGAIN IT ONLY PORTENDS DOOM

I literally just swatted that feeling down in a panic

So I’d say that’s a good sign
posted by schadenfrau at 7:43 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


It looks like she wants a vacancy tax in nyc?

I just


I’m worried I can haphazardly make things happen if I think about them too much
posted by The Whelk at 7:47 PM on March 19, 2018 [65 favorites]


Vacancy tax has become the Thing I Am Too Intense About in conversations about politics ever since I started trying to find a retail space to rent in DC. Do not get me goddamn started.
posted by nonasuch at 8:02 PM on March 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


but if there’s a vacancy tax won’t the rich property owners get around it by just hiring poor people to occupy

oh

oh that’s good though
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:04 PM on March 19, 2018 [64 favorites]


YES YOU GET IT NOW

(for real though I am incandescent with rage at the way landlords around here taken the slightest step towards gentrification as an excuse to hike rents to a level that would be silly even if the neighborhood was fully goddamn gentrified, which, like, how do you expect all those fun trendy businesses to make your neighborhood cool if they can't afford to goddamn open their doors--

sorry. sorry. stopping now.)
posted by nonasuch at 8:07 PM on March 19, 2018 [21 favorites]


NIXON'S THE ONE (or NIXON - NOW MORE THAN EVER)

Finally a Nixon you can trust.

stolen from Twitter
posted by chris24 at 8:09 PM on March 19, 2018 [22 favorites]


(DC effectively has a vacancy tax, and it's quite a good thing, but also not a magic bullet. All big cities should do it, but it also probably won't solve the problems you think it will solve)
posted by schmod at 8:10 PM on March 19, 2018 [1 favorite]


New York Daily News wins the day 1 joke contest for the Cynthia Nixon thing.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:15 PM on March 19, 2018 [18 favorites]


We can win with Nixon if we only buckle down.
posted by contraption at 8:17 PM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


DC effectively has a vacancy tax, and it's quite a good thing, but also not a magic bullet.

It’s also not enforced for shit.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 8:17 PM on March 19, 2018 [4 favorites]


DC effectively has a vacancy tax, and it's quite a good thing, but also not a magic bullet.

It’s also not enforced for shit.


yep, plus all of the inside-the-beltway-but-not-DC-proper neighborhoods are just as bad, if not worse. There's a storefront up the road from me that's been vacant for FIFTEEN YEARS, a stone's throw from a MARC station. It's owned by one of the handful of developers that seems to own everything. I just can't understand stuff like that.
posted by nonasuch at 8:29 PM on March 19, 2018 [5 favorites]


More public ownership ownership of property, it’s too easy for large congolmates to own property and take a loss on paper in one sector for thier empire.

If your unit is vacant for too long it has to go to amarket rated pinned to minimum wage* or be transferred to Housing Authority control.

*if you think the minimum wage would have to rise too high for this to happen well, we’ll be we shouldn’t have housing a part of a speculative imvestment market.
posted by The Whelk at 8:39 PM on March 19, 2018 [14 favorites]


Mod note: Probably worth digging into the rent/vacancy/etc stuff in a separate post, if folks want to go deeper on that stuff.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:53 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]




Susan Pompeo had an office at the CIA, made use of CIA staff, and accompanied her husband on official state visits to meet with intelligence officials

This administration is a damned Mandelbrot fractal of corruption. Zoom way out, or zoom way close in, and there it is, just expanding out in its recursive ouroborous of fucked up weirdness.
posted by dis_integration at 9:39 PM on March 19, 2018 [108 favorites]


CNN: Cambridge Analytica Whistleblower: We tested Trump slogans in 2014

"Drain the swamp," "deep state," and "build the wall" were in the works a year before he went down the escalator in 2015.

(But after Miss Universe 2013)
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:01 PM on March 19, 2018 [82 favorites]


Michael Hayden, who served as CIA director from 2006 until 2009, said his wife, Jeanine, was also a partner in his work, not unlike Pompeo. […] Her job, he said, was to be an advocate for the workforce and to tell him what could be improved.

There are so many ways this is infuriating. That is not a job. It is unpaid emotional labour. And if it were a real thing the CIA staff needed it should have been properly funded instead of being relegated to the CIA Director's wife. But it's pretty clear to me that this vague list of tasks was just a way to justify giving the Director's wife a building pass and an expense account, and to justify her travelling with him. So it's not just misogyny; it's corruption and nepotism.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:06 PM on March 19, 2018 [53 favorites]


Monmouth Poll: 74% of Americans believe in the existence of a "Deep State"--"a group of unelected gov & military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy." 53% are worried about it. 53% think gov spying on Americans is widespread.
And what percentage of that number believe the "Deep State" is Pro-Republican, mostly even Pro-Trump? Because I'm one of them.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:43 PM on March 19, 2018 [6 favorites]


I'd really love some interviewer to drill down with Wylie into any relationship between Cambridge Analytica and GamerGate.
posted by Yowser at 10:44 PM on March 19, 2018 [39 favorites]


A look back to Time's May 2017 cover story (the cover that had the Kremlinized White House):
As they dig into the viralizing of such stories, congressional investigations are probing not just Russia’s role but whether Moscow had help from the Trump campaign. Sources familiar with the investigations say they are probing two Trump-linked organizations: Cambridge Analytica, a data-analytics company hired by the campaign that is partly owned by deep-pocketed Trump backer Robert Mercer; and Breitbart News, the right-wing website formerly run by Trump’s top political adviser Stephen Bannon.

The congressional investigators are looking at ties between those companies and right-wing web personalities based in Eastern Europe who the U.S. believes are Russian fronts, a source familiar with the investigations tells TIME. “Nobody can prove it yet,” the source says. In March, McClatchy newspapers reported that FBI counterintelligence investigators were probing whether far-right sites like Breitbart News and Infowars had coordinated with Russian botnets to blitz social media with anti-Clinton stories, mixing fact and fiction when Trump was doing poorly in the campaign.

There are plenty of people who are skeptical of such a conspiracy, if one existed. Cambridge Analytica touts its ability to use algorithms to microtarget voters, but veteran political operatives have found them ineffective political influencers. Ted Cruz first used their methods during the primary, and his staff ended up concluding they had wasted their money. Mercer, Bannon, Breitbart News and the White House did not answer questions about the congressional probes. A spokesperson for Cambridge Analytica says the company has no ties to Russia or individuals acting as fronts for Moscow and that it is unaware of the probe.
No one can prove it yet?

Mercers ---> CA & Breitbart --->Bannon---->Alt-right web-o-sphere
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:57 PM on March 19, 2018 [8 favorites]


The deep state poll is interesting. The 74% includes "definitely" and "probably" exists. Only 5% said there is definitely no deep state. Belief was non-partisan, though Democrats leaned a bit more to "probably" rather than "definitely". Monmouth noted two groups with more saying the deep state is real - non-Whites and NRA members.

And what percentage of that number believe the "Deep State" is Pro-Republican, mostly even Pro-Trump? Because I'm one of them.

The idea it's unitary is a bit too far out there. Disparate networks - so the rumored scheming by the NYC FBI office to jam up the Clinton campaign would be pro-Trump deep state, while the "Alt National Park Service" type Twitters, if any are real, would be a minor manifestation of anti-Trump deep state. I think on balance anti-Trump though.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 11:09 PM on March 19, 2018 [3 favorites]


I'd like to see the actual quote, but she keeps doing this, and it's just inexplicable. And then we all call her office and she fixes it a few hours later. This is not a good pattern for a California Senator to be stuck in

Feinstein is one of the wealthiest Senators and her husband is a defense contractor..
posted by benzenedream at 11:20 PM on March 19, 2018 [7 favorites]


At State Department, Heather Nauert’s star is ascendant
Nauert, who was born in Illinois, was a breaking news anchor on Trump’s favorite television show, “Fox & Friends,” when she was tapped to be the face and voice of the administration’s foreign policy.

But of course.
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:45 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


So what he could do, is throw out Sessions, appoint a new AG, wait for Senate confirmation - while Congress rushes to pass a law that prevents firing of a special prosecutor without special reasons. He could try one of the dodgy options to appoint someone without Senate approval, but only one of those is quick, and it involves him grabbing a successor from another department, someone who's already got Senate confirmation.

Not that hard: fires Sessions, appoints Pruitt from EPA or Ben Carson from HUD as acting AG, they aren't recused so they can fire Mueller whether Rosenstein likes it or not. It could all happen in less than an hour.

Hopefully that would backfire. But I wouldn't bet $1,000 on that prospect.
posted by msalt at 1:00 AM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Sounds like Trump's legal team isn't happy at the prospect of moon lawyers like diGenova and Toensing joining, or happy working for Trump, for that matter.

The Washington Post reports: Trump Shakes Up Team of Lawyers as Legal Threats Mount
The hiring caught many of his advisers by surprise, prompting fears that Trump is preparing for bigger changes to his legal team — including possible departures — as he goes on the offensive in the primary legal challenges facing him.

Trump is not consulting with top advisers, including Chief of Staff John F. Kelly and chief White House lawyer Donald McGahn, on his Russia legal choices or his comments about the probe, according to one person with knowledge of his actions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive conversations. He is instead watching television and calling friends, this person said.[...]

The developments suggest that the tumult that has already engulfed Trump’s White House now threatens to overtake his fractious legal team. The half-dozen key lawyers tasked with defending Trump are increasingly operating with conflicting information, feuding internally, and pursuing strategies that many legal analysts and friends of the president view as dubious — if not downright dangerous.[...]

Members of the legal team — which the president has already overhauled once — dispense legal advice and counsel while also serving as Trump’s publicists and therapists, according to people familiar with the relationships. The lawyers employ a range of strategies to try to manage the impulses of their uncooperative client, these people have said.[...]

At different times, Trump has erupted with anger at Mueller’s probe, which he has long called a “witch hunt,” believing it is overshadowing his accomplishments and hampering his ability to do his job, according to multiple people familiar with his frustrations.

Trump vents about the probe to his lawyers frequently and also channels his friends’ criticism of them, according to these people. His lawyers have told him that the White House is required to provide some minimum cooperation with Mueller and have reassured him that they’re not leaving him exposed.

Emmet Flood, a white-collar defense lawyer who was interviewed by Trump a few weeks ago, continues to be eyed as a possible deputy to McGahn, two Trump aides said.
And the New York Times adds further information: Trump Considers Reshuffling Legal Team as He Takes On Mueller More Aggressively
President Trump’s legal team was poised for a shake-up on Monday, according to two people briefed on the matter, as he openly discussed firing one of his lawyers, another considered resigning and a third — who pushed theories on television that Mr. Trump was framed by the F.B.I. — joined the roster.

Mr. Trump has weighed aloud in recent days to close associates whether to dismiss his lawyer Ty Cobb, who had pushed most strongly a strategy of cooperating fully with the special counsel investigation. The president reassured Mr. Cobb that he had no plans to fire him, according to a person who spoke with the president late Monday, in part to prevent a narrative that his team was in disarray after The New York Times began making inquiries.

Mr. Trump’s lead lawyer, John Dowd, has contemplated leaving his post because he has concluded that he has no control over the behavior of the president, the two people briefed on the matter said. Ignoring his lawyers’ advice, Mr. Trump has reverted to a more aggressive strategy of publicly assailing the inquiry that he initially adopted in the weeks immediately after the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, was appointed. Now the president has begun attacking Mr. Mueller himself.[...]

Mr. Trump is also discussing adding other lawyers to the team, according to one person with knowledge of the matter.[...]
Trump has run into concerns before when trying to hire new lawyers. "'The concerns were, “The guy won’t pay and he won’t listen.”' said one lawyer close to the White House who is familiar with some of the discussions between the firms and the administration, as well as deliberations within the firms themselves."
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:34 AM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


If he can't stand the heat, he should get out of the kitchen.
posted by Sublimity at 3:03 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


the latest legal team news hammers home that if trump does go down (god willing) it’s going to be his complete lack of loyalty and refusal to really hear any voices besides the ones in his head that does him in. he isolates himself from the people that give him the best advice because following that advice would involve not indulging his every whim to maintain his narcissistic supply. he needs an amazing legal team right now, and he’s not going to have one because he’s hiring lickspittles off the teevee and showing his existing team that he’s unmanageable.

if he could listen to someone besides donald trump for five minutes, he might save himself. but if he could do that he wouldn’t be donald trump.
posted by murphy slaw at 3:49 AM on March 20, 2018 [56 favorites]


It also indicates that when he does go down, he’s going down kicking and screaming. There will be no Nixonian helicopter ride here. If and when and no matter how Trump leaves office he’s going to mount a very public campaign targeting his 25% base with every resource he’s got left. And worse, if he gets a pardon, he’ll spend the rest of his life being a Russian agent with one of the world’s largest megaphones.
posted by Room 101 at 4:22 AM on March 20, 2018 [23 favorites]


i am eating my breakfast in the hotel lobby and can’t escape CNN. as an organization they have been doing some decent reporting (mostly on the web) but goddamn if cable news isn’t killing america. they’ve got Rick Santorum (“senior political commentator”) on spinning for trump and it’s killing my appetite.

i’m becoming convinced that the guy who does the chyrons is managed by a rogue element in the editorial department, though. they’re running TRUMP HIRES CONSPIRACY THEORIST FOR LEGAL TEAM over santorum’s blather.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:33 AM on March 20, 2018 [65 favorites]




Meanwhile in UK officials seek warrant to enter Cambridge Analytica HQ
Information commissioner demands access to data and orders Facebook to halt audit.
Endgadget on the Facebook and Cambridge Analytica nightmare.
posted by adamvasco at 5:05 AM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


Interesting speculation. The timing does seem suspect:

@mkraju
Rep. Mike Conaway said tonight he has no plans to call Alexander Nix or any other Cambridge Analytica officials back to HPSCI to testify, reiterating that the Russia investigation has ended. Said it’s Nunes’ call, per @jeremyherb

@TeaPainUSA
As a matter of fact, the Cambridge Analytica scandal is the reason Nunes shut it down in the first place. CA is the smokin’ gun.
posted by Artw at 5:12 AM on March 20, 2018 [55 favorites]


If and when and no matter how Trump leaves office he’s going to mount a very public campaign targeting his 25% base with every resource he’s got left.

I remain convinced that that GOP elites will firmly arrange for he and his to go to prison (or just the grave) to shut them up.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:18 AM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


I remain convinced that that GOP elites will firmly arrange for he and his to go to prison (or just the grave) to shut them up.

I imagine the Congressional GOP's calculus has been reduced to, "What do we have to give Mueller to make his investigation into the Trump Campaign's casual conspiracy with Russian State Actors stop before it gets to the long-established conspiracy between the Russian State Actors and Congress? "
posted by mikelieman at 5:23 AM on March 20, 2018 [54 favorites]


NPR continues to dedicate all its energies to normalizing fascism.

i've replaced morning edition with old episodes of chapo trap house and all things considered with old episodes roderick on the line and it has done wonders for my mental health

(also, supertrain is going to take care of all this)
posted by entropicamericana at 6:20 AM on March 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


murphy slaw: if he could listen to someone besides donald trump for five minutes, he might save himself. but if he could do that he wouldn’t be donald trump.

Given that truth, I very often wonder how integral those flaws are to his appeal. Like, there's a lot of talk about how much scarier Trump would be for the nation if he were competent, and it's well-founded, but I wonder to what degree explicit competence would harm his initial electoral appeal. Over recent decades, white male privilege has been affected in ways that prompt a sense of no longer having one's shit together, so a lot of white voters are drawn to someone who seems similarly broken.

It's not that they're all mini-Trumps in personality (Trump himself is easily in the bottom quartile of Trump fans when it comes to intelligence or emotional health). It's that their reaction to trends (such as feminism, civil rights, gay rights, and yes, a changing economy) coalesce into an inner Trump. His narcissistic stubborness, his ineptitude masked by bluster, even specific extreme flaws like his sense that paying other people full salary to do a job for you makes you a sucker -- that definitely doesn't precisely match the typical white male American, sure, but it's an id he could have a beer with.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:24 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


@youngvulgarian
IT'S ALL KICKING OFF - DCMS select committee wants Mark Zuckerberg to come give evidence:
posted by Artw at 6:27 AM on March 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


I think the issue is that Trump voters presume competence where there is none. They don't see him as flawed at all, they see him as brilliant and successful because being white and rich means you must be brilliant and successful.

The fact that he's a dumb racist asshole helps because those voters are also dumb racist assholes.
posted by lydhre at 6:30 AM on March 20, 2018 [19 favorites]


I've said this before, but I honestly don't think a "Donald Trump, but competent and not insane" model would work because his base wouldn't trust anyone who can use three-syllable words in a sentence.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:31 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


the valorization of the rich in our culture prevents people from seeing that making a small fortune by starting with a large fortune is not an achievement.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:33 AM on March 20, 2018 [81 favorites]


Johnny Wallflower Monmouth Poll: 74% of Americans believe in the existence of a "Deep State"--"a group of unelected gov & military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy." 53% are worried about it. 53% think gov spying on Americans is widespread.

The thing is none of that seems really all that wrong.

"Deep state" seems like a modern synonym for "military industrial complex", or perhaps "military/prison/banking complex". Basically rich people who deal intimately with the government and benefit from a revolving door of government to private sector appointments.

From a conspiracy standpoint, the idea of a cabal of secret overlords, of course its preposterous. But the idea that there's a general consensus to adopt policy that benefits the billionaire class, and especially the billionaire class that's hooked into government stuff, seems perfectly reasonable.

I'm sure the Trumpers mean a secret cabal of nefarious plotters (doubtless Jews, Muslims, and/or Freemasons depending on their particular bigotry) who meet in some movie style shadowy chamber to plot the downfall of the Heroic President Trump, and that is conspiracy and divorced from reality.

But I'm not surprised you see a broad bipartisan agreement that there is such a thing as a deep state, if most people on the liberal end of things are defining it to mean military industrial complex 2.0 as I assume they are.

Likewise, we don't have to suspect that there's widespread spying on American citizens by the government, we know it for a fact. The NSA rooted most switches and routers Cisco made for several years. And we know that Cisco actively collaborated with the NSA in that project.

We know that AT&T actively helped the government illegally wiretap millions of Americans and that then Senator Obama violated his promise to filibuster any law that retroactively granted immunity to AT&T and voted for a law that did just that.

I'd say the disturbing thing is that only 53% of Americans think the US government is engaged in widespread spying on US citizens is the problem. It ought to be 100% because there have been multiple well sourced and verified stories showing that the US government engages in widespread spying on US citizens in the US. It's a fact as well established as the facts that the Earth is a spheroid or that the sun is hot.
posted by sotonohito at 6:33 AM on March 20, 2018 [51 favorites]


GOP confronts another failed tax experiment in Oklahoma

"I'm not scared to say it, because I love Oklahoma, and we are dying," said Republican state Rep. Leslie Osborn. "I truly believe the situation is dire."
posted by Artw at 6:34 AM on March 20, 2018 [34 favorites]


Amid all this NPR had Rep. Jim Jordon on (R -Ohio) giving us dispatches from planet Fox. All the anti-McCabe, anti-Comey, anti-Mueller "witch hunt" talking points. But he made it sound so scarily coherent, in comparison to Trump's "no puppet, no puppet" blubbering. It made me realize that there are a lot of people who are going to believe our government is completely illegitimate if Trump goes down. And a lot of people like me who will believe it is illegitimate if he stays. So in that way... Putin has already won.
posted by OnceUponATime at 6:36 AM on March 20, 2018 [33 favorites]


we have to stop referring to the GOP tax policies in places like Kansas and Oklahoma as "experiments". if they were experiments, their policies could be falsified by failure.

as it stands, tax cuts uber alles is holy writ to the republican party and will be re-applied elsewhere regardless of outcome (and probably re-applied in Kansas and Oklahoma as soon as they think the voters have forgotten).
posted by murphy slaw at 6:38 AM on March 20, 2018 [46 favorites]


Self-funded Millionaires Are Forcing Promising Democrats Out Of California Primaries
Four of the eight candidates running [in CA-39] haven’t raised any money and aren’t much of a factor. Out of the other four, three of them — Dr. Mai Khanh Tran, Gil Cisneros, and Andy Thorburn — have loaned themselves a total of $3.86 million for their campaigns. Cisneros, an ex-Republican whose main claim to fame is hitting the lottery for $266 million, gave himself $1.3 million. And Thorburn, a former insurance executive, provided a whopping $2.33 million of his own money for the race. No House Democratic candidate nationwide has self-funded more than Thorburn this cycle, and only Thorburn and one other have self-funded more than Cisneros, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics.

Thorburn and Cisneros clearly aren’t going anywhere; a source close to the process said that at a meeting in D.C. last week, “We were told both millionaires are each willing to write themselves another $5-6 million check” if they were pressed to give way.
In which the DCCC embraces a lottery winner/ "ex-"Republican and a CEO of a shady tax dodging insurance company because they can fund their own race.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:46 AM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


I imagine the Congressional GOP's calculus has been reduced to, "What do we have to give Mueller to make his investigation into the Trump Campaign's casual conspiracy with Russian State Actors stop before it gets to the long-established conspiracy between the Russian State Actors and Congress? "
posted by mikelieman at 5:23 AM on March 20


Her name is stormy daniels and she formerly ran for senate as a republican.
posted by eustatic at 6:50 AM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Yeah, the rest of that article about Oklahoma is filled with other Republicans reacting to Osborn's warnings with statements ranging from "I'm opposed to tax increases, period" to "government waste and corruption is the cause of the revenue problems." And then you get to the bottom and read this:

"It's the idea of having support and resources," said Billy Elles, a speech and debate coach at Westmoore High School who moonlights as a waiter at Outback Steakhouse. "I'm tired of having 34 students in a classroom. I'm tired of buying my own copy paper and my books."

This is where this "no taxes" philosophy always leads for ordinary citizens. You pay less in taxes, but have to buy books for your students. Or your car hits a pothole that might have been fixed by city workers if there was money to pay them and whoops, you're out several hundred dollars for repairs. Or the park that used to be free to use now charges money or gets closed altogether. And so on.

Republicans are like medieval doctors who observed their patients reacting badly to bloodletting and assumed it was because they still had too much blood inside them, although I suspect this comparison is unfair to medieval doctors because I assume most of them were operating in good faith and a genuine desire to help their patients.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:52 AM on March 20, 2018 [130 favorites]


This is where this "no taxes" philosophy always leads for ordinary citizens. You pay less in taxes, but have to buy books for your students. Or your car hits a pothole that might have been fixed by city workers if there was money to pay them and whoops, you're out several hundred dollars for repairs. Or the park that used to be free to use now charges money or gets closed altogether. And so on.

No no. It's Oklahoma. The oil and gas companies paid less in taxes. Your own tax bill is not so different to hitherto.
posted by jaduncan at 6:57 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


GOP confronts another failed tax experiment in Oklahoma

Oklahoma Senate passed a bill raising teacher pay by 12% to try to prevent a strike, but failed to pass the tax provisions that would have provided the revenue for those raises (increasing the cigarette tax rate, adding a new 6 cent gas tax, and raising rate on new oil and gas wells from 2% to 4%). They also rejected a plan that would include the oil and gas well tax increase and a 1% increase in sales tax, and exempt groceries from the state sales tax (not currently exempt). Voters previously rejected the sales tax increase proposal when it was on the ballot. Dems want to increase the gross production tax and reverse recent income tax cuts (among other proposals).

Revenue-raising bills need 75% support in the legislature or a majority of voters in a referendum. However, the state should see a roughly 13% increase in state tax revenues due to federal tax changes (assuming they don't squander it by cutting taxes again).
posted by melissasaurus at 6:58 AM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


(and probably re-applied in Kansas and Oklahoma as soon as they think the voters have forgotten)

Kobach promised "full-throttled conservatism" (at the KS Republican convention) if he is elected Governor. I was flabbergasted when I heard him say that. It just seems so tone-deaf and out of touch considering what Kansas has been through in recent years. I guess the only problem with Brownback was that he wasn't "full-throttled" enough? Good lord.

All the same, I would not be surprised at all if he wins, and not despite that, but because of it.
posted by history_denier at 7:01 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


I honestly can't tell if getting slapped with Contempt of Court today would be an asset or a liability to the Kobach campaign.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:03 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


Trump himself is easily in the bottom quartile of Trump fans when it comes to intelligence or emotional health

Did you look at video of his rallies? I think the floor goes down much lower than your comment suggests.
posted by thelonius at 7:11 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


Conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed.

Any failure seemingly due to conservatism is due to either betrayal and sabotage or insufficient devotion to conservatism, or possibly both.

Is Kansas suffering after a round of tax cuts? Then clearly the problem is that the tax cuts weren't deep enough. The magic will happen. It must happen. It **MUST**. If only we believe enough, lavish enough praise on the rich, and cut taxes enough then this time it will work.

And if it doesn't work this time?

Well then that's evidence that the tax rates are still too high, or that there are still too many regulations, or that someone was too critical of the rich and hurt their feelings, and we must again offer up tax cuts and rolled back protections on the alter of conservatism confident that blessings will then shower down upon us.

Conservatism cannot fail, it can only be failed.
posted by sotonohito at 7:11 AM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


In which the DCCC embraces a lottery winner/ "ex-"Republican and a CEO of a shady tax dodging insurance company because they can fund their own race.

No, the problem is California's shitty jungle "primary" system. They have really no choice because they can't force him out of the race, and his self funding means he's a serious contender.

This is yet another reason why the jungle "primary" needs to die.
posted by NoxAeternum at 7:19 AM on March 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


No no. It's Oklahoma. The oil and gas companies paid less in taxes. Your own tax bill is not so different to hitherto.

And just to underscore this, the only tax cut the GOP is not in favor of in Oklahoma is exempting food from the sales tax; Gov. Fallin will only consider it if the sales tax is expanded (a tax increase!) to services like doctors visits, childcare, and utility bills. You have to pay tax on bread and milk to feed your family, but rich assholes need tax-free capital gains.
posted by melissasaurus at 7:20 AM on March 20, 2018 [26 favorites]




This is yet another reason why the jungle "primary" needs to die

I’m not sure what you’d replace it with though? Back to the two party duopoly? Preselection by the party apparatus? There’s a complete disconnect between all levels of politics in the United States. If you went to preselection the factionism and back room deals would arguably be worse in a country without the system to be ready for it. You thought the presidential primary shitfight was bad? You’ve never seen a branch stacking shitfight.

The essential problem is that being a Democrat is the only way you win in California so Republicans are just running as Democrats and acting just liberal enough to pass the smell test. Getting rid of jungle primaries won’t fix that.
posted by Talez at 7:29 AM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Part of the problem is that as bumper-sticker slogans go, "Taxes are bad and I'll lower them!" is hard to counter, because in order to do so you have to get at least a bit into the weeds of explaining what the taxes are going to pay for and why that's good and how it's better than the alternative...and as they say; if you're explaining, you're losing. Those of us here in Ontario are about to go through all of this with Doug (brother of the late Rob) Ford and the resurgent PC Party. He doesn't have a plan, but that doesn't matter because for a big chunk of the electorate "taxes are bad" counts as a plan and the incumbent Liberals are at (somewhat-deservedly but exacerbated by sexism and homophobia) historically low approval ratings.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:33 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


DeVos testifying live for those curious; presumably she'll be pushed on hiding the details of the Department of Ed overhaul plan.

up presently is Rep. DeLauro, D-Conn., who is not here to play when it comes to school violence and is not having DeVos's equivocating when it comes to cutting counselling budgets or any arm-the-teachers nonsense (or any nonsense generally) and also has really great hair
posted by halation at 7:36 AM on March 20, 2018 [19 favorites]


I’m not sure what you’d replace it with though?

Some kind of run-off voting is usually best when there are a lot of choices.
posted by Artw at 7:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


Part of the problem is that as bumper-sticker slogans go, "Taxes are bad and I'll lower them!" is hard to counter, because in order to do so you have to get at least a bit into the weeds of explaining what the taxes are going to pay for

How about [FIX OUR SCHOOLS/BRIDGES/HOSPITALS]?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


> She adds, “We’re being categorized as lunatics, but we know that the weather is massively and completely, artificially controlled.”

Such are the lengths people will go to in order to avoid the unpleasant sensation of believing that their actions may have contributed to negative outcomes.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Excellent thread about the Texas bombings here.
posted by Melismata at 7:41 AM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


> How about [FIX OUR SCHOOLS/BRIDGES/HOSPITALS]

"The finger thing means the taxes!"
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:41 AM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Yowser: I'd really love some interviewer to drill down with Wylie into any relationship between Cambridge Analytica and GamerGate.

I agree with you. A few weeks ago, I would have said, "I don't do conspiracy theories!" but this latest news makes me wonder. I would not be surprised at all if CA helped gin up the GamerGate movement in some ways. I think we're going to go down quite a long and twisty rabbit hole when we are done figuring all this out.

The thing is, with all that CA and data-mining have done, it wouldn't have worked if it hadn't fallen on fertile soil in the US and in other countries. CA fanned the flame, but the embers were there. Welp, at least we don't have "Oh fuck/we're stuck/with Zuck/2020."

I found this paper (not paywalled for now): Is the Tea Party libertarian, authoritarian, or something else? (Jonathan Havercroft & Justin Murphy, Social Science Quarterly). I think "Tea Party" can be translated to "Trump voters."
The central claim of this article is that a crucial ideological factor explaining support for the Tea Party is what Friedrich Nietzsche called “misarchism” in reference to the political philosophy of Herbert Spencer. As we explain in detail below, distinct from both libertarianism and social conservatism, misarchism refers to an aversion to government combined with support for the state and traditional morality.
These people hate government, but love the state. I had been looking for something to explain why Trumpkins hate taxes and the social safety net, but love cops and the military (which are funded by government), and why it's "states rights for me but not for thee" when it comes to blue states. It sounds hypocritical, but to them it is not.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:44 AM on March 20, 2018 [40 favorites]


Part of the problem is that as bumper-sticker slogans go, "Taxes are bad and I'll lower them!" is hard to counter
I've seen this handled quite well on many bumper stickers. Socialism = public roads, etc.
posted by rc3spencer at 7:46 AM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]




Zuckerberg already came clean, in 2003.
posted by pjenks at 7:56 AM on March 20, 2018 [20 favorites]


I'm... not sure how Cambridge Analytica could have ginned up GamerGate. We've got a very clear idea how GamerGate started, because it was basically public, and the people involved didn't go anywhere near Facebook.

From memory: it started on 4chan's /pol/ forum, their attempt to quarantine off all the anti-Semitism and edgelord stuff into its own area (which never works for obvious reasons), and moved to a private chat room back when it was still called 5Guys. The logs of that private chat room got published in full soon after, in part because the dipshits let their target lurk in the chat room where they planned to harass her. It then moved to Twitter, which was one of the places she was attacked, and it bubbled up to other conservative celebrities on Twitter, one of whom responded and named it, giving it validation.

I don't know if it reached Facebook until Breitbart started covering it months later.
posted by Merus at 7:58 AM on March 20, 2018 [19 favorites]




If anyone feels like going over the criminal stuff that happened during Trump's pre-2016 business career again, I just watched "Dangerous Ties: Trump and His Business Partners" (alt link) from German public television network ZDF's ZDFzoom program. Released in August last year; it had some details I hadn't come across before and seems much less shy than American sources I've watched—unambiguously stating that he's constantly done business with criminals. Interviews in English, narration in German with English subtitles, ~45 min. (more English content)
posted by XMLicious at 8:04 AM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Part of the problem is that as bumper-sticker slogans go, "Taxes are bad and I'll lower them!" is hard to counter

"Proud Taxpayer"
"Proud to be an American Taxpayer"
"I help fund [State]'s schools, roads, and bridges."
"I paid my taxes and all I got was this functioning society"

"My opponent will tell you balancing a state budget is much like balancing a household budget and that tax cuts will pay for themselves. Well, go ask your boss for a 50% paycut and see how well that turns out for your finances. I want a [state] where my kids have more opportunities than when we grew up here, not fewer. I want safe, clean streets; medical care accessible in all corners of this state; and businesses that are truly interested in investing in our state, not just exploiting our people and resources. If we keep taking a paycut, we will never have these things. It's time for us to be adults and take our children's futures seriously."
posted by melissasaurus at 8:06 AM on March 20, 2018 [92 favorites]


Mod note: Gonna repeat here: please less one-liner comments. East Manitoba, you're kind of on a tear the last couple days, please ease up on the one-liner reaction/riffing/etc.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:06 AM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


So, uh, Stormy Daniels' lawyer would like us to know this is happening

You know, that's nuts.

It appears to be Stormy Daniels about to take a video'd lie detector test, if you want to spare yourselves the click.

But there are a lot of people for whom that kind of theatrics is very convincing evidence, more so than a congressional report, for example.

So...uh...good? I don't know. Hard to find the right way to usefully analyze a trainwreck between two circuses, caused and managed by drunks and bees.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 8:10 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


The essential problem is that being a Democrat is the only way you win in California so Republicans are just running as Democrats and acting just liberal enough to pass the smell test. Getting rid of jungle primaries won’t fix that.

Actually, it will - and I even have a case study in CA-17. With actual primaries, old school Democrat Mike Honda held off Silicon Valley technocrat Ro Khanna. Then jungle primaries came...and now we have Representative Khanna.
posted by NoxAeternum at 8:15 AM on March 20, 2018


you re-frame the debate in terms of schools, in terms of roads, in terms of public transit, in terms of defense, in terms of healthcare. Fixing healthcare polls really well, and consistently so; if you show people what you want to do, they're generally willing to take that option over lower taxes -- looking back at 2016, the 'higher taxes, better government' side won the popular vote in a landslide.

Conor Lamb won a district specially gerrymandered to keep Republicans in power by doing just this - "Yay healthcare, yay ACA! Yay unions!" And not, as the chattering classes would have you think, on opposing the latest female Democratic scapegoat, Nancy Pelosi. I mean, yes, he talked about opposing Pelosi but the real bread-and-butter which pushed Lamb to the finish line was being pro-healthcare and pro-union.

Danica Roem, America's first trans state lawmaker, won because she campained on fixing roads.

"Bread and butter" is good for Democratic politicians to campaign on. The electoral college - as well as gerrymandering, voter suppression, and Democratic turnout in general - is the bigger issue.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:20 AM on March 20, 2018 [38 favorites]


Of all the bizarre, obsessive, self-aggrandizing lies Trump likes to tell, one of the most inexplicable to me was the story that his Electoral College victory was some kind of historic blowout. Despite him bringing it up during nearly all his public appearances, the right wing echo chamber mostly hasn’t repeated it, and for good reason: even if your election coverage came exclusively from Fox News, you still know that Trump’s victory was a pretty big upset by a razor-thin margin.

It would have made far more sense to spin it as a monumental upset, prevailing over the political establishment of both parties against all odds, supported by the forgotten underdogs of the white working class. To make a sports movie analogy, if Rocky Balboa had knocked out Apollo Creed in the second round, it would have been less amazing than winning a deathmatch in the final round.

So why did Trump immediately latch onto this obviously bullshit narrative of a landslide? At the time, it just seemed like another weird thing Trump does. But after the revelations of the past few weeks, I realized a far more plausible explanation: Trump 100% knew he cheated, 100% knew multiple parties were putting their thumb on the scale for him. That’s why he fixated on the state or county electoral maps that show all that red—he needs to convince himself that he would have won anyway.

Apologies if this is common knowledge, but it was an epiphany I don't remember seeing here.
posted by johnny jenga at 8:22 AM on March 20, 2018 [48 favorites]


chris24: Of the seats Democrats have flipped, 61% (!) were won by women. Nationwide state legislatures were just 24% female in 2015 (@NCSLorg data).

NPR wants to temper your excitement with ... statistics? The Wave Of Female Candidates Is Set For A Wave Of Losses, Come November -- because Lots more women running equals lots more women losing. More specifically,
An NPR analysis shows that the influx of women candidates, beyond being heavily Democratic, features a glut of Democratic women running in races currently considered to be easy Republican wins.

In total, 49 percent of the Democratic women running for the House, Senate, and governor, not including incumbents, are in "likely" or "safe" Republican races. On the other side, 34 percent of Republican women running as non-incumbents are in likely or safe Democratic House, Senate, or governors' races.

And even those running for seats that are within reach for their party will still have to get through sometimes crowded primaries.

The bottom line is that a wave of female candidates is going to equal a wave of women losing in 2018.
...
One way to look at the data: If a woman won every possible House race this November, women would occupy 264 House seats — well over half, and a roughly 150 percent bump from the current level of 106.

But take out all of those Democratic women in races that Cook considers "solid" or "likely" Republican and Republican women in "solid" or "likely Democratic" races, and there would be a potential 162 female House members. And that's potential — assuming all of those women won.

To be clear, this still gives women — particularly Democratic women — a good chance of picking up significant numbers of seats in November.
Emphasis mine, because THIS IS THE STORY. Not mentioned: the current, and historic, gender bias, beyond noting that the one profiled candidate, Lauren Underwood, a Democratic candidate in the Illinois 14th Congressional District (here's her webpage), is the only woman in a pool of seven Democratic candidates.

More women losing shouldn't be the story - more women are running, including in previously uncontested GOP locations.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:23 AM on March 20, 2018 [80 favorites]


Vox discusses Trump's possible motivation for not firing Mueller yet

1) Firing Mueller would be much more procedurally complicated and legally challenging than firing Comey or Tillerson

2) Firing Mueller does not mean ending the Mueller investigation

3) Firing Mueller would unleash the leaks

4) A Trump cover-up could improve Democrats’ chances of retaking Congress — which would worsen the president’s legal woes

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:25 AM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


wow, NPR. "you can't lose if you don't run!" is the hottest of takes.

Next up on NPR, Steve Inskeep talks about a new report that not exercising drastically reduces sports injuries.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:26 AM on March 20, 2018 [59 favorites]


the trump legal team is in talks to add another lawyer, but it sounds like it may be more wishful thinking than an actual announcement?

Trump legal team seeks to add star GOP attorney Theodore B. Olson
President Trump’s legal team has reached out to Theodore B. Olson, one of the country’s most high-profile and seasoned litigators, to join forces amid mounting challenges in the probe of Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

The addition of Olson would come as Trump, feeling more vulnerable to the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III, has told confidants that he wants to recruit top-tier talent and shake up his group of lawyers, the people said.

Olson,77, who served as solicitor general in the George W. Bush administration and has long been considered a legal superstar, would bring deeper ties to Department of Justice and more experience on landmark cases than any of Trump’s current lawyers.

Olson is said to be reviewing the offer while weighing potential conflicts with his clients at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, where he is a partner, one person close to him said. Another person familiar with the discussions said a Trump senior adviser Kellyanne Conway recommended Olson to the president this week, but it was unclear whether Olson would accept. He previously declined an offer to join the team.
I'm not sure why they think that leaking this kind of thing helps them? There have been a number of leaks about seeking high-powered representation, but so far trump has mostly collected second-tier attorneys and professional republican grifters.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:38 AM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


I know Trump shoots from the hip a lot, meaning, I'm SURE he'd fire a team without having a suitable replacement....but I wonder if his current legal team only remains in place because he can't find anyone willing to work for/with him.
posted by Twain Device at 8:40 AM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Artw: "Some kind of run-off voting is usually best when there are a lot of choices."

A number of states/localities are experimenting with ranked choice voting. I believe we're going to see it spread significantly in the next few years.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:42 AM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


If the Republican primaries had ranked choice voting, a lot of voters for more traditional candidates (Bush, Rubio) would have selected other traditional candidates in second place. Donald Trump wouldn't have stood a chance.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:46 AM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


Secretive religious charity run by top US housing officials raises questions

The Guardian's reporter for this piece, Jon Swaine @jonswaine, has an update:
New: Johnson Joy, one of Ben Carson’s top officials at HUD, has resigned following our report this weekend. Two sources tell me he was escorted out by security this morning.

Joy left HUD as we were preparing an article on a new whistleblower complaint. Joy’s former executive assistant says she was fired for raising the alarm on corruption in contracting

Guardian: Second Housing Official Claims She Lost Job After Raising Corruption Complaints
Katrina Hubbard says she was reassigned then terminated within Ben Carson's department after raising alarm over misuse of public funds
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:48 AM on March 20, 2018 [55 favorites]


Part of the problem is that as bumper-sticker slogans go, "Taxes are bad and I'll lower them!" is hard to counter

George Lakoff: In Politics, Progressives Need to Frame Their Values
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:51 AM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


If the Republican primaries had ranked choice voting, a lot of voters for more traditional candidates (Bush, Rubio) would have selected other traditional candidates in second place. Donald Trump wouldn't have stood a chance.

I will go to my grave bearing the shame of voting for Rubio (because the polls told me he was leading) when i should have voted Kasich.
posted by ocschwar at 8:55 AM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


FTC opens investigation into Facebook after Cambridge Analytica scrapes millions of users’ personal information
The Federal Trade Commission has opened an investigation into Facebook following reports that a data analytics firm that had worked with the Trump campaign had improperly accessed names, “likes” and other personal information about tens of millions of the social site’s users without their knowledge.

The FTC probe – confirmed by a source familiar with the agency's thinking and not authorized to speak on the record -- marks the most substantial political and legal threat yet to Facebook as it grapples with the fallout from Cambridge Analytica and its controversial tactics. And it could result in the U.S. government slapping Facebook with a massive fine.

At issue for the company -- and at the heart of the FTC probe -- is a settlement they reached with the agency in November 2011, ending an investigation that Facebook deceived users about the privacy protections they are afforded on the site.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:58 AM on March 20, 2018 [33 favorites]


chris24: They reality shopped to find the source that will confirm their hate, bigotry and biases. Fox didn't create all of this, it gave an outlet

I agree that's true for many, perhaps most of them. It may be true for the guy in my anecdote & I'll find that out if I have more conversations with him. Speaking only for myself, I am happy to offer him a helping hand out of his circular thinking, just to see if he's capable of taking it. I have no illusions. He's tangentially in my life, & I have skills from years of talking to white people about racism and men about sexism (including here at Metafilter). So if I have the energy to talk to this guy, I might as well see if he's capable of occupying the fullness of his humanity.

By telling my anecdote above, I did not intend to imply that anybody else is obligated to do this kind of thing.** I did think that some people might find my approach useful. I don't see the utility of Mefites arguing again about Trump Supporters: Hateful Bigots or Pitiful Propaganda Victims. I can talk to people like this guy AND phone bank for flippable districts, etc.

**(still, it would be nice if more white people learned the skills of compartmentalizing righteous anger, not letting it show, and de-centering yourselves by (at first, before saying your piece) listening to / soothing the anger and anguish of people who don't listen to or respect you, because IF those people are reach-able, usually they have to feel that you've heard them first.

Those of us who are low in the social hierarchy on multiple axes, we do it all the time to survive. It's not fair. It's not fun. It's hit or miss. But it works often enough for me that I keep doing it. Again, it'd be helpful if more white people, especially white men, deployed these de-centering skills. Most white men can do it with their bosses. It doesn't seem to occur to them to do it with anybody else... because, I presume, people who would reciprocate are often lower in the hierarchy so why would it occur to you (general you, not directing this at anybody in-thread) to listen to or do emotional labor for them; and with people who don't reciprocate, it's unpleasant, so if you're lucky enough that you don't have to, then you choose to avoid it entirely.

Mocking and ostracizing the Richard Spencers of the world right off the bat is excellent of course.)
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 9:12 AM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


4) A Trump cover-up could improve Democrats’ chances of retaking Congress — which would worsen the president’s legal woes

Yup. Which is why Democrats should point out that there already is a Trump cover-up, and Congressional Republicans are aiding and abetting him.
posted by Gelatin at 9:16 AM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


NPR wants to temper your excitement with ... statistics? The Wave Of Female Candidates Is Set For A Wave Of Losses, Come November

The only good reason for a thinking person to listen to NPR is to keep abreast of the controlled opposition.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:16 AM on March 20, 2018 [26 favorites]


Good News Dept: Wyoming enacts law restricting use of civil forfeiture - requires hearing and probable cause for people to waive their rights to property.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:18 AM on March 20, 2018 [56 favorites]


Re: framing: Republicans are for the rich and the Russians. Democrats are for the people.
posted by Lyme Drop at 9:19 AM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Conservative Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post: A reminder of just how wrong Trump apologists were
President Trump is reportedly “more confident” in his job — what results provide him with such confidence is unknown — and hence we see an undiluted Trump. The promise that one day he would pivot, or become presidential, was ludicrous. In fact, he has gotten worse with time.

We now see unrestrained Trump — the one who hates criticism; who must continually pummel his opponents; who never bothers to learn about subjects on which he expounds; who thinks everyone in government owes their personal loyalty to him; who means what he says for only a fleeting instant; who confounds allies with policy zigzags; who bullies and blusters; who lies continually; and who, despite his bravado, cannot take on those to whom he apparently owes his presidency (e.g., the National Rifle Association, the Kremlin).
...
In sum, Trump could neither hire nor heed the advice of “very best people” on his staff or Cabinet. The pusillanimous Congress was never going to challenge him. But here’s the thing: By removing the GOP majority in Congress, the country can mitigate — not eliminate — Trump’s increasingly unhinged conduct. To get the institutional check that Republicans such as House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) promised, it seems, they need to be stripped of that majority.

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:22 AM on March 20, 2018 [27 favorites]




Greentech Media: US Government Accuses Russia of Hacking Into Energy Infrastructure
Energy Secretary Rick Perry told a congressional subcommittee on Thursday that he’s "not confident” the grid is secure from cyberintrusions, which are "literally happening hundreds of thousands of times a day. […] The warfare that goes on in the cyberspace is real, it’s serious, and we must lead the world."

Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., the ranking Democrat on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, cited the alert as mounting evidence of a crisis that she first asked the Trump administration to address in March 2017, only to be “met with deafening silence."
From the Joint Alert:
DHS and FBI characterize this activity as a multi-stage intrusion campaign by Russian government cyber actors who targeted small commercial facilities’ networks where they staged malware, conducted spear phishing, and gained remote access into energy sector networks. After obtaining access, the Russian government cyber actors conducted network reconnaissance, moved laterally, and collected information pertaining to Industrial Control Systems (ICS).
posted by Existential Dread at 9:25 AM on March 20, 2018 [19 favorites]


Can someone explain to me what Cambridge Analytica supposedly used the stolen Facebook data for? I've read through all of the articles pretty closely and it seems to me that:
  • To do the "psychometric profiling" you need to pair the Facebook data to the psychological quiz data
  • Collecting such paired data, and then analyzing the results (e.g., with SVD), allows you to build a model for how Facebook "likes" translate into genuine beliefs or demographic data.
So, the model can only be built for the 270,000 quiz participants... there is no "psychological data" for the 50 million Friend data that was collected on the side.

I see how the 270,000 could lead to a pretty powerful model (that no longer relies directly on user data... thus they can say that they did not rely on Facebook profiles during the election). But what are they accused/suspected-of using the actual 50 million raw Facebook profiles for?
posted by pjenks at 9:27 AM on March 20, 2018


By telling my anecdote above, I did not intend to imply that anybody else is obligated to do this kind of thing.

Sorry if my comment seemed directed at you. I certainly am not trying to tell anyone how to act towards Trumpers and I applaud anyone doing the tough of work trying to convert them. It was more frustration with a societal inclination towards excusing white behavior and the constant search for reasons Trumpers are like this - for example the repeated NYT and media forays into Trump country - when they ignore the pretty obvious one staring them in the face; a lot of them are bad, racist people.
posted by chris24 at 9:29 AM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


"Ranked choice" isn't a single system (there are a lot ways of choosing the "right" candidate given a set of voters' listed preferences, and a case can be made for each one). It looks like in most of these contexts the term refers to instant-runoff voting (IRV), the same way the word "average" usually refers to a mean.

Interestingly, jungle primaries approximate the IRV process, but don't go far enough. IRV is kind of like simulating any number of elimination rounds, not just two. And under IRV, if any two candidates are universally understood to be more similar to each other than to anyone else in the field, then (in principle) they shouldn't hurt each other by competing, because whichever one is slightly more popular will end up receiving all of the other one's votes. In practice it doesn't always work that way and spoilers can happen, but not as much as with traditional plurality voting.

Maine is moving to IRV (but maybe only for primaries? My sources haven't been clear about that), and a big reason has got to be the victories of the unpopular/disgusting LePage against a Democrat and Independent splitting the votes.

I'm pretty happy about Maine, but one of my concerns about implementing this more broadly is that the sort of American who currently votes third party may, more often than not, be hesitant to taint their ethically perfect ballot by placing a major-party candidate anywhere on it, even as a second choice. So they'd either submit a "bullet vote" (marking one candidate as the #1 choice and leaving the rest blank) or not vote at all, depending on whether bullet votes were allowed under the particular flavor of IRV.

Australia uses IRV to fill parliamentary seats, and voting is compulsory there. Third parties win just as rarely there as here, but at least (theoretically) they don't spoil as many elections.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:32 AM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Australia uses IRV to fill parliamentary seats, and voting is compulsory there. Third parties win just as rarely there as here, but at least (theoretically) they don't spoil as many elections.

On the contrary. In the Senate where you're working with multi-member districts where the threshold for election is much less of the popular vote you get plenty of third parties. That's the other half of the equation. You need multi-member districts so that it's not just winner take all.
posted by Talez at 9:34 AM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


I see how the 270,000 could lead to a pretty powerful model (that no longer relies directly on user data... thus they can say that they did not rely on Facebook profiles during the election). But what are they accused/suspected-of using the actual 50 million raw Facebook profiles for?

Well for one thing they could apply that trained model to the 50 million accounts (essentially reversing the process, turning FB profiles into psychological profiles) and then buy micro-targeted ads aimed at the subset of those 50 million people that the ads were most likely to influence. I believe they've been accused of at least that much: using the stolen profile data to inform their Facebook ad buys.

It's also suspected (but as far as I know not yet proven) that Cambridge Analytica then handed all of that information over to the Russian government or groups working on behalf of the Russian government, as part of the Russians' own ad-buying / social media bot / trolling operation.
posted by jedicus at 9:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


Can someone explain to me what Cambridge Analytica supposedly used the stolen Facebook data for?

Your first premise is false. The psychometric quiz data is irrelevant, just like Cosmpolitan doesn’t care about What Type Of Lover Are You when they’re putting together their media package for advertisers. It’s a hook to get your actual psychometric footprint, which is what you’ve liked, viewed, clicked on, bought, and the same for all of your Facebook friends.
posted by Andrhia at 9:38 AM on March 20, 2018 [54 favorites]


Pack it up, folks; we all know Ted's word is his bond, and the famed "B-b-b-but They Said It Was Legal" defense is untouchable.

Texas Tribune: Ted Cruz says Cambridge Analytica told his presidential campaign its data use was legal
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:44 AM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


Why is Mueller's team negotiating with Trump's team about a "sit-down interview"? Bill Clinton had to testify before the grand jury under oath; the Clintons had to testify nine times during the Whitewater investigation.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:47 AM on March 20, 2018 [40 favorites]


Can someone explain to me what Cambridge Analytica supposedly used the stolen Facebook data for?

The Data That Turned the World Upside Down
How Cambridge Analytica used your Facebook data to help the Donald Trump campaign in the 2016 election.
In 2012, Kosinski proved that on the basis of an average of 68 Facebook "likes" by a user, it was possible to predict their skin color (with 95 percent accuracy), their sexual orientation (88 percent accuracy), and their affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party (85 percent). But it didn't stop there. Intelligence, religious affiliation, as well as alcohol, cigarette and drug use, could all be determined. From the data it was even possible to deduce whether someone's parents were divorced.
...
Your data can also be used the other way round to search for specific profiles: all anxious fathers, all angry introverts, for example—or maybe even all undecided Democrats? Essentially, what Kosinski had invented was sort of a people search engine. He started to recognize the potential—but also the inherent danger—of his work.
...
On further investigation, he discovered that Aleksandr Kogan had secretly registered a company doing business with SCL. According to a December 2015 report in The Guardian and to internal company documents given to Das Magazin, it emerges that SCL learned about Kosinski's method from Kogan.

Kosinski came to suspect that Kogan's company might have reproduced the Facebook "Likes"-based Big Five measurement tool in order to sell it to this election-influencing firm.
...
Up to now, explains Nix, election campaigns have been organized based on demographic concepts. "A really ridiculous idea. The idea that all women should receive the same message because of their gender—or all African Americans because of their race." What Nix meant is that while other campaigners so far have relied on demographics, Cambridge Analytica was using psychometrics.
Note that this is mostly based on Cambridge Analytica's own claims about themselves. It's debatable whether it actually works as advertised. Cambridge Analytica's can have done illegal and immoral things in the election whether or not their algorithms work as they claim.
posted by OnceUponATime at 9:49 AM on March 20, 2018 [26 favorites]


It's quite possible that Trump's team has no intention of allowing a sit-down interview, and Mueller's team has no intention of allowing a limited interview, and will instead opt for a subpoena. The "negotiations" could be theater that both sides see as necessary and beneficial.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:50 AM on March 20, 2018 [22 favorites]


Part of the problem is that as bumper-sticker slogans go, "Taxes are bad and I'll lower them!" is hard to counter

George Lakoff: In Politics, Progressives Need to Frame Their Values
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:51 AM on March 20 [5 favorites +] [!]


Whenever someone complains about the poor state of some government funded thing (road, bridge, school, etc.) I mockingly lament that we are such a poor country and can't afford nice things. As the proportion of wealth and income both seep upward in our reverse trickle-down economy, it's clear that the 1% need to shoulder more of the burden, but the opposite has been happening, especially with the latest and greatest GOP tax shifts. I don't think it's such a hard message to say we need better schools and roads and we can afford it if we structure our taxes fairly.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:55 AM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


Mueller undoubtedly knows enough to land Trump in legal hot water interview or no interview. (That's why the concern trolling about "perjury trap" -- Team Trump doesn't know what's safe to lie about.) They stand to benefit by seeing what evidence Trump's lawyers will provide voluntarily, and they always have recourse to a subpoena.
posted by Gelatin at 9:55 AM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


In Clinton's case he agreed to testify over video after Ken Starr subpoenaed him.
Mr. Clinton will be the first sitting President to testify under oath in a grand jury investigation in which he is a potential target.
We already have a precedent for what to do in this situation, and answers to questions people are asking.

Can a president be subpoenaed? Yes.

Does a president have to testify under oath before a grand jury? Yes.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:55 AM on March 20, 2018 [34 favorites]


Whenever someone complains about the poor state of some government funded thing (road, bridge, school, etc.) I mockingly lament that we are such a poor country and can't afford nice things. As the proportion of wealth and income both seep upward in our reverse trickle-down economy, it's clear that the 1% need to shoulder more of the burden, but the opposite has been happening, especially with the latest and greatest GOP tax shifts. I don't think it's such a hard message to say we need better schools and roads and we can afford it if we structure our taxes fairly.

Indeed. The Boehner / McConnell soundbite used to be a mournful "we'd love to be able to fund the government, but we're broke."

Hogwash. The United States is the wealthiest country in the world. The question we should be asking is, are we willing to sacrifice essential public services so the top 1% can grab the other half of the nation's wealth, and do we really want the Republican policy of "we sure are!"
posted by Gelatin at 9:59 AM on March 20, 2018 [59 favorites]


I don't think it's such a hard message to say we need better schools and roads and we can afford it if we structure our taxes fairly.

I agree, and I really do think it's easy to craft bumper-sticker-simple messaging around this. The general public wouldn't be turned off by slogans like "tax the rich, medicare for all". The real problem is that wealthy donors would. If the Democrats would get over that, then I really think they could win on that message.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 10:01 AM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


Talez: On the contrary. In the Senate where you're working with multi-member districts where the threshold for election is much less of the popular vote you get plenty of third parties. That's the other half of the equation. You need multi-member districts so that it's not just winner take all.

Whoops! My sources on Australia were out-of-date and maybe just focused on the House (which is single-member districts), not the Senate (which is multi-member districts). Yes, single transferable vote (STV, basically instant-runoff with multiple seats) is excellent for third parties.

Really, thinking about it again, any voting system that resulted in third-party candidates outright winning single-person seats would probably be unrepresentative by definition, since any given community probably doesn't have anything close to majority support for a third party. (A possible counter-argument: The third-party person could be the least hated, a compromise candidate.) In general, the rightful place for their representation is systems where groups are collectively represented by multiple people (for example, STV and party-proportional systems).

So forget that specific assertion/criticism I made. The point is that a good system lets third-party voters be represented and not shut out, whether by actually getting representatives commensurate with their numbers, or by having their votes count for a second-favorite candidate.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:05 AM on March 20, 2018


Carole Cadwalladr: New details about Aleksandr Kogan's research. A different personality quiz he was using to pull @facebook data via its API in St Petersburg in summer 2014. To measure - gulp - the "dark triad": psychopathy, narcissism, machiavellianism
posted by adamvasco at 10:08 AM on March 20, 2018 [30 favorites]


It's debatable whether it actually works as advertised.

Kosinski's latest work is about the effectiveness of modeling people's personalities with FB likes.
The results presented in Fig. 2 show that computers’ average accuracy across the Big Five traits (red line) steadily grows with the number of Likes available on the participant’s profile (x axis). Computer models need only 100 Likes to outperform an average human judge in the present sample (r = 0.49; blue point).† Compared with the accuracy of various human judges reported in the meta-analysis (20), computer models need 10, 70, 150, and 300 Likes, respectively, to outperform an average work colleague, cohabitant or friend, family member, and spouse (gray points).
Now, it may be that the Big 5 are a poor proxy for what dimensions of variation exist among people pertaining to what they find persuasive. If Lakoff is right, there may be a different vector to project people's Likes along to distinguish people persuadable by one means versus another.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:08 AM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Carole Cadwalladr: New details about Aleksandr Kogan's research. A different personality quiz he was using to pull @facebook data via its API in St Petersburg in summer 2014. To measure - gulp - the "dark triad": psychopathy, narcissism, machiavellianism

Directly and intentionally cultivating mass sociopathy. We are 100% through the cyberpunk dystopia looking-glass.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:09 AM on March 20, 2018 [59 favorites]


"Undocumented and Unpaid, Until Now: Houston Day Laborers Fight Wage Theft After Hurricane Harvey", a story on this morning's Democracy Now! by their producer Renée Feltz who is also a contributing reporter at The Intercept—at about 46:00 in the full show (alt link, .torrent).

If you've read about or seen documentaries about Angola Prison in Louisiana in past years, the Financial Times did a 5½ minute video update last week on the progress of reforms there: Can America fix its prison crisis? Also, from late last year: Why don't Americans trust journalists? Report from Bowling Green, Kentucky.
posted by XMLicious at 10:18 AM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


I'm always glad to see recognition that voting rules are a huge part of the problem the American political system has, but it's worth remembering that ranked choice, instant runoff, and other similar voting systems still suffer from spoiler effects, still tend to marginalize third-party candidates, and still produce relatively high levels of "regret" (overall dissatisfaction with the outcome of an election by the voters who participated in it). Approval voting (in which you get to say whether you approve or disapprove of every candidate on the ballot) solves many of these problems, and is mathematically not subject to Arrow's Impossibility Theorem. (For a nice discussion see To Build a Better Ballot by Nicky Case, previously on Metafilter.)
posted by biogeo at 10:21 AM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Directly and intentionally cultivating mass sociopathy. We are 100% through the cyberpunk dystopia looking-glass.

i think this is an overly broad reading. trying to identify sociopaths via facebook data is value-neutral (or would be if the data was legitimately obtained with informed consent of the members involved).
posted by murphy slaw at 10:25 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


The general public wouldn't be turned off by slogans like "tax the rich, medicare for all".

meh, I'm always surprised at how prevalent the "rich people are our betters, also I might be one of them someday" sentiment is.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:30 AM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


Approval voting (in which you get to say whether you approve or disapprove of every candidate on the ballot) solves many of these problems

While I prefer approval voting to IRV as well, they are both far superior to what we have now.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:32 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


meh, I'm always surprised at how prevalent the "rich people are our betters, also I might be one of them someday" sentiment is.

It's always easier to defend the status quo as right and good than to confront the reality of grave inequality and one's own privileged position by association.
posted by Existential Dread at 10:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


meh, I'm always surprised at how prevalent the "rich people are our betters, also I might be one of them someday" sentiment is.

This is another area where good messaging is at odds with keeping major donors happy. A principled, well-argued stand for democracy has to include pointing out loudly and repeatedly that 1)The rich have hoarded our resources to an obscene degree 2)They are not especially smart, hard-working or talented 3)The idea that you might join them is propaganda to keep you from rising up.
posted by contraption at 10:38 AM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


Re: money for roads, schools, and hospitals

*ahem*

Where's the fucking money, McConnell?!
posted by petebest at 10:39 AM on March 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


3)The idea that you might join them is propaganda to keep you from rising up.

you know, there's a lot of talk about how the left lacks punchy messages, but "WORKERS OF THE WORLD UNITE. YOU HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE BUT YOUR CHAINS" fits on a bumper sticker pretty well.

:-|
posted by murphy slaw at 10:43 AM on March 20, 2018 [58 favorites]


if most people on the liberal end of things are defining it to mean military industrial complex 2.0 as I assume they are.

They aren't. They're defining it to mean the Rothschilds are controlling the weather. Or a cover up of military UFO bases. Or Clinton sabatoged Bernie at the behest of the Goldsteins.

There's a huge well of antisemitism, racism, misogyny and flat-out insanity in the conception of the Deep State, Left or Right
posted by happyroach at 10:45 AM on March 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


Scratch a conspiracy theory, find antisemitism. Always start from that presumption, or you are giving people unearned benefit of the doubt that I have never seen proven true.
posted by maxsparber at 10:49 AM on March 20, 2018 [58 favorites]


On snake oil: Cambridge Analytica’s Facebook data abuse shouldn’t get credit for Trump

In fact, Hersh spent a week trying to create a microtargeting model to find people who were interested in climate change and, he says, “you can’t do better than party affiliation.” If you don’t have access to that information, it’s very hard to figure out who’s interested. If you do, nothing else matters.

Which might be more reassuring if it a) inferring that from the data given didn't seem fairly trivia, b) there's a broad range of actions CA and the IRA can take with that, of various degrees of legality and c) the IRA probably has voter roll data to back it up.
posted by Artw at 10:55 AM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


prize bull octorok:
meh, I'm always surprised at how prevalent the "rich people are our betters, also I might be one of them someday" sentiment is.
Yes, but we shouldn't let that surprise fool us into over-weighing them in our perceptions. Like, a lot of people actually think it makes sense to characterize teenagers as "eating tide pods", but of course that's statistically bogus. And on a similar note:

happyroach:
sotonohito: if most people on the liberal end of things are defining it to mean military industrial complex 2.0 as I assume they are.
They aren't. They're defining it to mean the Rothschilds are controlling the weather. Or a cover up of military UFO bases. Or Clinton sabatoged Bernie at the behest of the Goldsteins.
There's no "they" there. Until a couple years ago (or even more recently), poll after poll on Obamacare found a majority disapproving it, but when you break those numbers down, a substantial portion preferred something more like a universal healthcare program -- it was never that most Americans were scared of death panels. I suspect that "deep state believers" poll is the same way -- a mixed bag of anti-fascist liberals, pro-Trump conservatives, and yeah, antisemites of all stripes. (Especially considering that only some people are even aware that it's a recent conservative smear phrase.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 11:00 AM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


prize bull octorok meh, I'm always surprised at how prevalent the "rich people are our betters, also I might be one of them someday" sentiment is.

There's often a surprising lack of that latter sentiment and a truly astounding amount of just straight up "rich people are our betters".

In The Reactionary Mind Corey Robin documents how, throughout history, there have always been a number of people who aren't at the top of the social structure, but who nevertheless vigorously defend it.

In part there's the superiority of being not at the bottom of the ladder. As long as the lowliest white man can think of himself as better than the best black man then a horrifying number of white men will literally fight to protect the entire social order. Like President Johnson once said:
"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
But even beyond that there's a tendency in humans to think in hierarchy, to imagine that those above them really do deserve to be there and really do deserve our loyalty and obedience. It's stronger in some of us than others, and in those people who feel that way strongly the idea that they aren't at the bottom of the ladder isn't all that important.

James Fitzjames Stephen wrote:
“to obey a real superior, to submit to a real necessity and make the best of it in good part, is one of the most important of all virtues – a virtue absolutely essential to the attainment of anything great and lasting.”
And there are a lot of people who really believe that. Anecdotally, I once got into an argument about unions with a working class conservative friend of mine, and kept asking why he thought unions were bad. Eventually he said "Look, the boss is supposed to be in charge, you shouldn't change that!"

Sure, the poor conservative might enjoy the fantasy of being one of the rich, and maybe they also enjoy the reality of being able to feel superior to those lower caste than them, but mostly they just really, really, like the idea of social hierarchy and having superiors. They're discomforted by the idea of true equality and find it disturbing and chaotic.
posted by sotonohito at 11:03 AM on March 20, 2018 [30 favorites]


if most people on the liberal end of things are defining it to mean military industrial complex 2.0 as I assume they are.

Also, the military-industrial complex was never a conspiracy theory per se, but a cogent observation about the still too-cozy relationship between private defense contractors and the U.S. military immediately following WWII through the Cold War and beyond, which helped lead to the semi-permanent global state of military engagement and colonial imperialism we've since become accustomed to.
posted by Strange Interlude at 11:06 AM on March 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


All through summer/fall 2016 my facebook feed lit up with my most progressive friends re-posting articles about how evil Hillary is and how she stole the nomination from Bernie and how "real" progressives shouldn't vote for her.
I have no doubt now that those progressive friends were targeted by this CA/Facebook data algorithm with the knowledge that they would happily and willingly spread the propaganda.
posted by rocket88 at 11:08 AM on March 20, 2018 [76 favorites]


I don't know how many people are watching the WH press conference today but I saw Sanders rattled for the first time. By what should have been a trivial question.

One of the reporters asked whether the WH viewed the Russian elections as "free and fair" and she stumbled her words, kept glancing down, and frankly looked like she had no answer. What she came up with was that it isn't our place to tell others how to run their countries and we're concerned with our own elections.

It was a terrible and telling answer. Just brutal, and I expect it will be the headline out of the press conference.
posted by Justinian at 11:11 AM on March 20, 2018 [101 favorites]


Scratch a conspiracy theory, find anti-Semitism.

I wouldn't be surprised if much of the Flat Earth Movement was actually a honey trap set up by right wing hate groups seeking out gullible and receptive marks at whom they can eventually start pushing their actual agenda (with help from the YouTube algorithm) which is white nationalism.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:11 AM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


All through summer/fall 2016 my facebook feed lit up with my most progressive friends re-posting articles about how evil Hillary is and how she stole the nomination from Bernie and how "real" progressives shouldn't vote for her.
I have no doubt now that those progressive friends were targeted by this CA/Facebook data algorithm with the knowledge that they would happily and willingly spread the propaganda.


So much so that entire Clinton-supporting social media groups were driven underground into private or hidden groups (e.g., Pantsuit Nation on FB, to name one). These people knew exactly what they were doing in fomenting division.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:13 AM on March 20, 2018 [65 favorites]


As I suspected, hotshot lawyer Ted Olson has told Trump’s legal team to fuck off.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:27 AM on March 20, 2018 [68 favorites]


I wouldn't be surprised if much of the Flat Earth Movement was actually a honey trap set up by right wing hate groups seeking out gullible and receptive marks at whom they can eventually start pushing their actual agenda (with help from the YouTube algorithm) which is white nationalism.

Given that the most notable proponent of Flat Earth theory in the US is an African-American NBA player (who likely has his own cultural reasons for distrusting mainstream science), that particular right-wing project would seem to be something of a bust.
posted by Strange Interlude at 11:29 AM on March 20, 2018


Sarah Sanders' inability to say Russia's elections were not free and fair got a brief mention on both CNN and MSNBC and then we moved right back to the Daniels/Mcdougal sex/payoff scandals. There are so many insane scandals circling TrumpCo that there isn't enough time to cover them all.

With any luck someone will put it up on youtube. It looked exactly like I looked when I had to stand in front of the class and answer a question I was completely unprepared for.
posted by Justinian at 11:30 AM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


This is where this "no taxes" philosophy always leads for ordinary citizens. You pay less in taxes, but have to buy books for your students. Or your car hits a pothole that might have been fixed by city workers if there was money to pay them and whoops, you're out several hundred dollars for repairs. Or the park that used to be free to use now charges money or gets closed altogether. And so on.

You'd probably be surprised by the number of places in the United States where the government is on the hook for pothole damage to cars.
posted by srboisvert at 11:30 AM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


I predict by Friday we find out that CambridgeAnal and Facebook have a stash of kompromat on congress, gov't officials etc, scraped from their accounts.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 11:32 AM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


I was going to write a rant about this, but instead can we just NOT do the blaming Bernie supporters thing again?
posted by Foosnark at 11:32 AM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


a truly astounding amount of just straight up "rich people are our betters"

Sometimes I think the just world fallacy is the generalization of that tendency to blame yourself for the abuse you’ve suffered, because it’s easier to believe it was your fault than to accept that you had no control over what happened to you.

As long as you’re not in the very bottom of the totem pole, it can be easier to believe in a just world than it is to accept that there’s injustice you have no control over.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:35 AM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Mod note: Hello friends, we are absolutely not going to be relitigating the primaries here today; yell into a pillow if you must.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:36 AM on March 20, 2018 [58 favorites]


With any luck someone will put it up on youtube. It looked exactly like I looked when I had to stand in front of the class and answer a question I was completely unprepared for.

David Mack, Buzzfeed tweeted a link with video of Sanders trying to answer whether or not the Russian elections were free and fair. It's such a circular answer, she could have comfortably ended with, "In conclusion, Russia is a land of contrasts."
posted by gladly at 11:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


A quick google search lets me know that I'm not the only person who thinks John Dowd reminds them of a Vogon.
posted by runcibleshaw at 11:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


Kris Kobach's contempt hearing seems to have gone *very* poorly.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:37 AM on March 20, 2018 [34 favorites]


Mentioned earlier, both cases brought by the Pennsylvania GOP in an effort to stop the PA Supreme Court-ordered redistricting failed today. There are no further legal avenues to pursue, the House elections will use the new lines.

Well, the new lines will be used, but not so fast about no legal avenues...

@jjabbott (Gov. Wolf's press secretary): So PA House Republicans have officially filed legislation to impeach four State Supreme Court justices...
posted by delfin at 11:39 AM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


@jjabbott (Gov. Wolf's press secretary): So PA House Republicans have officially filed legislation to impeach four State Supreme Court justices...

Awesome. Democrats can point to that precedent when they impeach Neil Gorsuch for occupying a stolen seat on the SCOTUS (or, perhaps more realistically, pass a bill after 2020 extending the Court to 15).
posted by Gelatin at 11:41 AM on March 20, 2018 [49 favorites]




As I suspected, hotshot lawyer Ted Olson has told Trump’s legal team to fuck off.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:27 AM on March 20 [8 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]


Yes, totally unsurprising. Today, I've been wondering how in the world the Trumpists thought they could get away with all of this, maybe because I heard a conservative MEP on the radio saying that Trump is totally unreliable and that the EU needs to hit back hard on any tariffs. And at this point, I'm thinking that they never expected to deal with any of this because they didn't expect to win the election. They expected to lose and build a business out of the loss, and that a Clinton administration would never persecute them for anything at all because it looks really bad to go after a political opponent. Two really good outcomes from their perspective, since both debt and criminal association was catching up with both the Trump and Kushner organizations.

Also: it's 100% possible to both mirror your own ignorance and racism and failure in Trump, and think he is incredibly smart. Just spend a couple of hours with an older white man who's always failed upwards, and you'll know.
posted by mumimor at 11:50 AM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


"Statesmanship" is overstating things obviously but... I don't think somebody can be called a quisling for what amounts to "thanks for your kind words"? He's trying to provide positive feedback. Like training a misbehaving cat.
posted by Justinian at 11:51 AM on March 20, 2018 [53 favorites]


Schumer just couldn't let Feinstein be the biggest quisling of the day.

I dunno. Shumer seems to be letting McConnell know that selling Mueller out is putting party before country and he'll be called out for it. And this public comment gives Shumer political cover to do so without it seeming like blind partisan bickering.
posted by Gelatin at 11:51 AM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Schumer just couldn't let Feinstein be the biggest quisling of the day.

So... McConnell says something good- Schumer salutes that- And that makes him a Nazi sympathizer?
a) refering to two Jewish senators as quislings is problematic AF
b) can Democrats do anything good in your eyes? McConnell is signaling that he doesn't want to fire Mueller- and recognizing that is bad? WTF?
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 11:52 AM on March 20, 2018 [69 favorites]


Schumer just couldn't let Feinstein be the biggest quisling of the day.

so this is where we're at now, Schumer blowing a little collegial smoke up McConnell's ass is "biggest quisling" territory? honestly I do not get the eagerness to pounce on every inconsequential utterance from a Democrat so we can all tell each other how much they suuuuck and are going to sell us out etc etc etc
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:52 AM on March 20, 2018 [67 favorites]


Also, the military-industrial complex was never a conspiracy theory per se, but a cogent observation about the still too-cozy relationship between private defense contractors and the U.S. military

I find it important to remember that there are (a) Conspiracy Theories and (b) CRACKPOT Conspiracy Theories, and that you shouldn't conflate (b) with (a)
posted by mikelieman at 11:53 AM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


i don't know that i would whip out "quisling" just yet, but i'm very disappointed that Schumer didn't take the opportunity to say "I am pleased to hear the majority leader affirm his support for the special prosecutor, and I hope that his support will extend to my amendment to the omnibus bill to assure the prosecutor's independence going forward".
posted by murphy slaw at 11:54 AM on March 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


U.S. Energy Information Administration: "Electricity generation from fossil fuels declined in 2017 as renewable generation rose"
...total U.S. net electricity generation fell slightly (down 1.5%) in 2017, reflecting lower electricity demand. Natural gas and coal generation fell by 7.7% and 2.5% from 2016, respectively, as generation from several renewable fuels, particularly hydro, wind, and solar, increased from 2016 levels.

Although natural gas continued to be most-used fuel for electricity generation for the third consecutive year, natural gas-fired electricity generation fell by 105 billion kilowatthours in 2017, the largest annual decline on record. Coal-fired electricity generation also fell, but to a lesser extent, marking the first year since 2008 that both natural gas- and coal-fired electricity generation fell in the same year.

Coal-fired generation accounted for more than half of the electric capacity retired in 2017, with 6.3 gigawatts (GW) of the 11.2 GW total. For the first year in at least a decade, no new coal-fired generators were added.
(Although coal and natural gas are still utterly dominant sources of electricity generation, percentage-wise. via)

Also from the EIA: "Average U.S. coal mining productivity increases as production falls"
posted by XMLicious at 11:54 AM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


He's trying to provide positive feedback. Like training a misbehaving cat.

Cats are one thing but positive reinforcement doesn't work so well on reptiles. Schumer continues to inexplicably suppose good faith that has been dead and rotted for years.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:55 AM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


b) can Democrats do anything good in your eyes?

Demand legislation to protect Mueller. Say that words and assurances are inadequate, not agree with Republican bluster about red lines we know to be a lie. This is basic.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:56 AM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


It does seem to me that every Democratic congressperson should be a co-sponsor of one of the bills to protect the Special Counsel, or should propose their own legislation. Or should have a very good reason for not doing so.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:57 AM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]




I find it important to remember that there are (a) Conspiracy Theories and (b) CRACKPOT Conspiracy Theories, and that you shouldn't conflate (b) with (a)

Reminds me of this classic vine: Black conspiracy theorist vs White conspiracy theorist
posted by joedan at 12:02 PM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


Channel4: Exposed: Undercover secrets of Trump’s data firm

“They don’t understand because the candidate never, is never involved. He’s told what to do by the campaign team.”
“So the candidate is the puppet?,” the undercover reporter asked.
“Always,” replied Mr Nix.


no puppet
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:07 PM on March 20, 2018 [104 favorites]


Coal-fired generation accounted for more than half of the electric capacity retired in 2017, with 6.3 gigawatts (GW) of the 11.2 GW total. For the first year in at least a decade, no new coal-fired generators were added.

The market cap of the entire US coal mining industry remains under $5B. Democrats should retake power and when we do, we should buy it out and wind it down as a pilot program to do the same for entire domestic petroleum industry.
posted by contraption at 12:09 PM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Demand legislation to protect Mueller. Say that words and assurances are inadequate, not agree with Republican bluster about red lines we know to be a lie. This is basic.

Schumer's D.C. senate office's Phone is (202) 224-6542 and Fax is (202) 228-3027 (senate switchboard is (202) 224-3121 for MeFites outside NY).

The congress critters will be skittering off for a two-week recess after Friday, which leaves Trump a huge window for mischief, so now's the time to fire up Resist.bot.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:10 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


Bah—note that while the electricity generation article I linked to above is for 2017, the headline of the coal productivity/production one covers the last five years; their data graphs do show an uptick in total coal production for 2017. (Though taking both articles together, the increased amount of coal produced must be going somewhere other than domestic electricity production.)
posted by XMLicious at 12:11 PM on March 20, 2018


Chinese-owned Alibaba joins ALEC to help write US laws in their favor. via The Intercept.

I'm sure this will be fine.
posted by emjaybee at 12:14 PM on March 20, 2018 [30 favorites]




The market cap of the entire US coal mining industry remains under $5B.

Thanks for the link -- that's an interesting corner of nytimes that I usually ignore. However, I did notice that the $5B doesn't include the $30B for "Utilities - Electric".
posted by paper chromatographologist at 12:17 PM on March 20, 2018


"Trump setback in accuser's defamation case is first of its kind"

President Trump must face a defamation lawsuit by a former contestant on his reality TV show “The Apprentice” after a Manhattan judge ruled in a first-of-its kind decision that he could not claim immunity through his job as the nation’s commander-in-chief.

“No one is above the law,” Justice Jennifer Schecter wrote in the 19-page decision released Tuesday....

The decision means that Summer Zervos, who in 2016 accused then-candidate Trump of groping and pressing his privates against her in 2007, can pursue her defamation case against the president for saying that her allegations were “fiction” and claiming she made them up for “personal gain." ...

The ruling also means that Trump will likely have to sit for a deposition in the case as Justice Schecter said the suit has merit.

posted by Dr. Send at 12:19 PM on March 20, 2018 [118 favorites]


Right, I'm just talking about buying out the mining operations. The federal government could then lay out a planned transition away from coal that might include incentives for utilities to replace their old plants, or might just be an announcement that domestic coal will be getting more scarce based on a specified timetable.
posted by contraption at 12:20 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Anyone know if the Zervos case in New York civil court could be televised? Maybe Trump will try to settle.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:24 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


I think we know what that lie detector test tweet from Stormy Daniel's Lawyer was about....
posted by Twain Device at 12:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Re-litigating the primaries is one thing. But as more and more new evidence comes to light as to how the 2016 primaries (and general) were manipulated, it is, I think, worth allowing a certain amount of discussion of that evidence and how it played out. We have a new round of primaries upon us, and so keeping an eye on and pointing fingers at the IRA, CA, and others who would distort the electorate should be well within bounds.
posted by jetsetsc at 12:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [23 favorites]


McConnell is signaling that he doesn't want to fire Mueller- and recognizing that is bad? WTF?

McConnell is very much responsible for us being in this Shit Circus™ in the first place. Chuck knows it. No need to pander or . . whatever it was.
posted by petebest at 12:31 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


Schumer praising McConnell doesn't help McConnell, it just makes Trump more likely to bang out an angry tweet about how McConnell is deep state.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:36 PM on March 20, 2018 [19 favorites]


McConnell is very much responsible for us being in this Shit Circus™ in the first place. Chuck knows it. No need to pander or . . whatever it was.

I disagree. For one thing, Shumer's mildly positive "yay, McConnell did the right thing for once" comment was hardly pandering. And another thing responsible for us being in this stupidest timeline is the "partisan bickering" that originated with the venom of Rush Limbaugh and the need for Republicans to abandon the objective reality that showed how terrible their policies are, and the so-called "liberal media"'s lazy and cowardly insistence that "both sides do it."

So a Democrat saying something nice on the rare occasions a Republican does something relatively not terrible is helpful to the Democratic side.
posted by Gelatin at 12:37 PM on March 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


(Oh, yeah, I forgot to credit the odious Newt Gingrich for urging fellow Republicans to describe Democrats as perverts, reprobates, and traitors at every opportunity. How ironic.)
posted by Gelatin at 12:40 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Christ, it’s helpful because the nutjobs they’ve been courting for years are already blaming McConnell and Ryan and establishment Republicans for Trump’s failures, and Democrats being nice to them just confirms their perfidy and makes the nutjobs not want to vote for them in the midterms.

THAT IS A-OK WITH ME.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:41 PM on March 20, 2018 [26 favorites]


In secretly recorded conversations, Cambridge Analytica’s CEO, Alexander Nix, claimed he had met Trump “many times”, while another senior member of staff said the firm was behind the “defeat crooked Hillary” advertising campaign.

“We just put information into the bloodstream of the internet and then watch it grow, give it a little push every now and again over time to watch it take shape,” said the executive. “And so this stuff infiltrates the online community, but with no branding, so it’s unattributable, untrackable.”
Emma Graham-Harrison and Carole Cadwalladr for the Guardian: Cambridge execs boast of role in getting Trump elected
posted by salix at 12:42 PM on March 20, 2018 [60 favorites]


is Daniels damaging her NDA case by leaking the tape/talking about the polygraph test? i realize that her claim is that the NDA is invalid, but does it harm her to publicly flout the NDA until that has been legally determined?
posted by murphy slaw at 12:42 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Just finished listening to the Channel 4 installment. Some very solid stuff! Nothing quite as explosive (to me, anyway) as in the last installment. Interviewees more or less admit to violations of rules about superPACs not interacting with candidates. They also describe how they cover their tracks from investigation by methods such as a "self-destructing" email system. They all but assured the "potential client" that he could have them do anything illegal he wished and no one would be the wiser.

Aside from that, something that surprised me is how much the Analytica people went into the details of American politics when the guy they spoke to was seemingly hoping to win a Sri Lankan election.

I have one small quibble... the video referred to Robert Mueller as "the lead investigator for the FBI", but that doesn't quite seem right, does it? He's both a former head of the FBI, and the leader of the special investigation that derives its power from the Department of Justice, separately from the FBI (as far as I understand).
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:43 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


InTheYear2017: " Until a couple years ago (or even more recently), poll after poll on Obamacare found a majority disapproving it, but when you break those numbers down, a substantial portion preferred something more like a universal healthcare program -- it was never that most Americans were scared of death panels. "

This is why I've always been skeptical of polling on "Is the country moving in the right direction?" There are many reasons you could think the country isn't moving in the right direction, lots of which are mutually exclusive.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:46 PM on March 20, 2018 [23 favorites]


is Daniels damaging her NDA case by leaking the tape/talking about the polygraph test? i realize that her claim is that the NDA is invalid, but does it harm her to publicly flout the NDA until that has been legally determined?

Maybe she doesn’t care about a stupid NDA? How hard is it gonna be for her to raise the funds to pay whatever blabbing costs her? Not very.
posted by Sys Rq at 12:49 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


I don't think it's such a hard message to say we need better schools and roads and we can afford it if we structure our taxes fairly.

Not at all:

"These potholes brought to you by tax cuts for the rich"
"Failing public schools brought to you by tax cuts for the rich"
"This traffic jam brought to you by tax cuts for the rich"

Etc.

The problem is not just how to implement proper progressive taxation, but also dismantle structures of patriarchy and white supremacy. Taxing the living shit out of the rich is great, but if we're still dealing with redlining and underfunded "urban" schools, the country still loses.
posted by rocketman at 12:50 PM on March 20, 2018 [45 favorites]


Until a couple years ago (or even more recently), poll after poll on Obamacare found a majority disapproving it, but when you break those numbers down, a substantial portion preferred something more like a universal healthcare program -- it was never that most Americans were scared of death panels.

And as many noted at the time, this fact was noted in the crosstabs of the various polls -- a good amount of the "disapproval" was "it's good, but we wish it could have gone farther." Not to mention that the Republicans lied, and lied, and lied about the programs (including but not limited to the "death panels" smear.)

Naturally the Republicans were quick to seize on indications of disapproval, but the so-called "liberal media" was under no obligation to take up their narrative. But they did.
posted by Gelatin at 12:52 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


contraption: "The market cap of the entire US coal mining industry remains under $5B. Democrats should retake power and when we do, we should buy it out and wind it down as a pilot program to do the same for entire domestic petroleum industry."

Serious question - doesn't coal have other uses than electricity generation (and Christmas gifts for naughty children)? Steel manufacturing, I thought?
posted by Chrysostom at 12:55 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


the coal used for steelmaking ("met coal") is a very small percentage of the total output of america's mines. coal used for energy and heating is cheaper and less clean-burning.
posted by murphy slaw at 12:57 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Yes, coal has a number of industrial uses. We also use coal derivatives for a number of dyes, pharmaceuticals, and other useful stuff. But that's peanuts compared to the amount we burn for electricity and heating.

I'm sure if we phased out coal electrical generation there'd be a need to keep open a mine or two. And that's fine. As long as the mines are eco friendly and we're only mining a fraction of what we are today then it's not a problem.
posted by sotonohito at 12:58 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


A nationalized coal industry would allow the government to continue extraction for whatever industrial non-fuel needs remain until alternatives can be found, but we need to start leaving it in the ground.
posted by contraption at 1:00 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]




From the above Guardian article on Cambridge Analytica: Remember how Trump's digital campaign was run by - something to the effect of - one guy from Austin who had built a few webpages before, who got instructions from Jr.? And the Trump Campaign had spent like $50 on banner ad Pepe memes, while Hillary's digital army was kickass? Okay, that's the context:

“We did all the research, all the data, all the analytics, all the targeting. We ran all the digital campaign, the digital campaign, the television campaign and our data informed all the strategy,” he told reporters who were posing as potential clients from Sri Lanka.

The company’s head of data, Alex Tayler, added: “When you think about the fact that Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 3m votes but won the electoral college vote that’s down to the data and the research.


Oooooohh. Yeah. No, yeah, there ya go. Yep. Okay.
posted by petebest at 1:01 PM on March 20, 2018 [38 favorites]


Maybe she doesn’t care about a stupid NDA? How hard is it gonna be for her to raise the funds to pay whatever blabbing costs her? Not very.

It is glorious poetic justice that Trump's inability to pay someone, anyone, the amount of money they deserve is a contributor to his downfall. Did he really think $130,000 would be enough money to keep someone that had an affair with a President of the United States quiet? Stormy Daniels could write a pamphlet about her story and make more than $130,000.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 1:02 PM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


From quite a bit up:
President Trump’s legal team has reached out to Theodore B. Olson, one of the country’s most high-profile and seasoned litigators.... He previously declined an offer to join the team.

Ted Olson, one of the team that succesfully argued to overturn Prop 8? I'm not surprised he turned him down, and I don't expect Cheeto Voldemort to have any better luck this time.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:03 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


One of the reporters asked whether the WH viewed the Russian elections as "free and fair" and she stumbled her words, kept glancing down, and frankly looked like she had no answer.

I agree with your assessment, but it seems almost every time I see SHS up there, she is in the same situation. I have never seen a prominent spokesperson for anything anywhere rely so heavily on "um."

I took a course years ago on public speaking and one of the things they had all the students do was watch a video of themselves doing a short presentation early on in the course. I find it remarkable that watching me give a three-minute talk about the One Easy Trick to calculate what day of the week that a given date falls on pretty much eradicated those tics from my speech, but the most publicly scrutinized person in the US (after the president*) somehow has never seen herself talk or had learned no lessons from it.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 1:03 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


NYT page for the Illinois primaries is up. Probably start seeing stuff trickling in around 8:30 Eastern.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:05 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


It is glorious poetic justice that Trump's inability to pay someone, anyone, the amount of money they deserve is a contributor to his downfall. Did he really think $130,000 would be enough money to keep someone that had an affair with a President of the United States quiet? Stormy Daniels could write a pamphlet about her story and make more than $130,000.

The NDA states that Daniels is on the hook for $1M for each violation. (Cohen brought a $20M suit based on that clause recently.)
posted by notyou at 1:08 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Ted Olson, one of the team that succesfully argued to overturn Prop 8? I'm not surprised he turned him down, and I don't expect Cheeto Voldemort to have any better luck this time.

less than two hours after i posted that article, the WaPo updated it to report that Olson turned him down again.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:09 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]




NRA to spend $15m on ads to defeat Hillary Clinton in key states [Guardian: Fri 16 Sep 2016]
Another key big-money link involves the hedge fund tycoon Robert Mercer, who has given a pro-Trump Super Pac at least $2m, and is also a lifetime NRA member and a Koch network donor. This year Cambridge Analytica, a voter data firm in which Mercer is a key investor, has worked with the Herald Group, a DC-based consulting firm, to implement the NRA’s “Trigger the Vote” drive to register new voters and get them to the polls. i360, a big voter data firm that is closely tied to the Koch donor network, has also been involved in the Trigger the Vote campaign.
posted by Buntix at 1:11 PM on March 20, 2018 [31 favorites]


It is glorious poetic justice that Trump's inability to pay someone, anyone, the amount of money they deserve is a contributor to his downfall. Did he really think $130,000 would be enough money to keep someone that had an affair with a President of the United States quiet? Stormy Daniels could write a pamphlet about her story and make more than $130,000.


The Daniels Pamphlet! Have you read this? [fake; Hamilton]
posted by Gelatin at 1:11 PM on March 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


Republican tactic number 1: When you fail, blame a woman.
posted by emjaybee at 1:11 PM on March 20, 2018 [40 favorites]


"Unqualified lesbian" is trending on Twitter, because Quinn attacked Nixon using the phrase, and the jokes just write themselves
posted by salix at 1:15 PM on March 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


The really horrifying thing to me is that even if Cambridge Analytica and every firm it touched gets nailed to the wall for this, there's nothing to prevent all this from happening again unless something is done about Citizen's United and campaign finance reform in general.

All the dark money will just shift to some group that isn't stupid enough to blab everything to a prospective client without checking him for a wire.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:15 PM on March 20, 2018 [83 favorites]


The NDA states that Daniels is on the hook for $1M for each violation. (Cohen brought a $20M suit based on that clause recently.)

Even so, I am sure there is an amount of money that Daniels could have been paid that would have convinced her to never come forward even if she and her lawyers decided the NDA is unenforceable. $130,000 is not that amount of money.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 1:16 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


On the other hand, Cohen had to dip into his home equity to scrounge up the 130k on short notice. It's plausible that she could have named a figure that they wouldn't be able to meet.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:18 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


The i360 Glassdoor reviews are something
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:19 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Ted Olson, one of the team that succesfully argued to overturn Prop 8? I'm not surprised he turned him down, and I don't expect Cheeto Voldemort to have any better luck this time.

Well, I'm guessing the reason Olson's name came up is that he was the defendant in a Supreme Court case specifically involving the Independent Counsel Act and was arguing then not only that the independent counsel appointed to investigate him in his capacity as Assistant Attorney General was illegitimate, but also that the whole idea was unconstitutional, so he's presumably at least somewhat sympathetic to Trump on this. If Trump's businesses didn't have a long history of not paying people they hire, he might well have signed up.
posted by Copronymus at 1:20 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


there's nothing to prevent all this from happening again unless something is done about Citizen's United

Is there a reason people don’t protest at the Supreme Court? Aren’t those delicate patrician types historically very sensitive to public opinion?
posted by schadenfrau at 1:21 PM on March 20, 2018


Because nobody who matters enters through the front door.
posted by rhizome at 1:21 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


For those bound while being tortured or who are nursing botched dental work, here is two hours of Betsy DeVos at her Appropriations subcommittee appearance today.
posted by rhizome at 1:27 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


@carolecadwalla
UPDATE: An ex-employee source points out "Cambridge Analytica is a legal fiction. Alexander Nix has been suspended from NOTHING."
This is a very good point. More to follow...

posted by Artw at 1:27 PM on March 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


Spoiler: It was my wife.

Ah, yes. The harridan defense. Popularized by former VA governor Bob McDonnell.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 1:27 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


For those bound while being tortured or who are nursing botched dental work, here is two hours of Betsy DeVos at her Appropriations subcommittee appearance today.

is there a transcript or excerpts with analysis, or can you just drive this railroad spike through my hand with a mallet?
posted by murphy slaw at 1:29 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


"Hey, Ted. Try the meatloaf."
"Nah, I'm good. Also, good luck in your future legal battles, but I'm going to have to decline."

I'm sure part of the reason for Trump's weekend meltdown was Mueller's list of questions, but also being turned down by a cadre of decent lawyers he so desperately needs.
posted by chainlinkspiral at 1:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


I forgot to credit the odious Newt Gingrich for urging fellow Republicans to describe Democrats as perverts, reprobates, and traitors at every opportunity.

Mr. Gingrich, like many Clinton impeachment-era Republicans, is a treasure trove of quotes about special prosecutors and how the president isn't above the law.
There are two principles “I am prepared to live and die on. The first is that the American people have the right to know about basic facts. And the second is that we are a nation under the rule of law and no person, including the president, is above the law.
-- Newt Gingrich, April 1998
I think it is disgraceful that official representatives of the executive branch are undermining a legitimate, legal investigation of the Department of Justice.
-- Newt Gingrich, March 1998
If he doesn’t want to fire Ken Starr, he should tell his staff to shut up. I am sickened by how unpatriotically they undermine the Constitution of the United States on behalf of their client
-- Newt Gingrich, April 1998
posted by kirkaracha at 1:33 PM on March 20, 2018 [71 favorites]


schadenfrau, people do protest a lot. Listen to this podcast for deets.
posted by rikschell at 1:33 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


I don't think it's been posted, but the second part of Cambridge Analytica on BBC4 is out
Mr Nix boasted about Cambridge Analytica’s work for Trump, saying: “We did all the research, all the data, all the analytics, all the targeting, we ran all the digital campaign, the television campaign and our data informed all the strategy.”

Separately, Mr Turnbull described how the company could create proxy organisations to discreetly feed negative material about opposition candidates on to the Internet and social media.

He said: “Sometimes you can use proxy organisations who are already there. You feed them. They are civil society organisations.. Charities or activist groups, and we use them – feed them the material and they do the work…
-----
In one exchange Alexander Nix revealed the company used a secret self-destructing email system that leaves no trace. He said: “No-one knows we have it, and secondly we set our… emails with a self-destruct timer… So you send them and after they’ve been read, two hours later, they disappear. There’s no evidence, there’s no paper trail, there’s nothing.”

posted by Brainy at 1:37 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


a secret self-destructing email system that leaves no trace

Ehh, sounds like sales bullshit to hype up how "cloak and dagger" they are. I'll believe it when Bruce Schneier writes an analysis.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 1:49 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


From the link way above, George Lakoff on how progressives should frame their values. "To deal with illegitimate fears, you don’t wait till you have to respond. You need (1) to build an effective communication system, (2) to communicate the general progressive value system, (3) repeat the truths that reveal what is right about those values, (4) act with courage to promote the sense of courage, confidence and hope that allows the truth to be meaningful and powerful. Within such a context, one can honestly and openly discuss the facts that undermine such fears, so that the illegitimate fears don’t get established in the first place." Guess the horse has left the stable on that one already ...
posted by Bella Donna at 1:51 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


(Channel 4 is not BBC 4; it's commercially funded despite being government-owned. The BBC has no commercials and is funded by a television license fee.)
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:52 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


Having called out Fox News for ignoring the Stormy Daniels story, her lawyer Michael Avenatti will be interviewed on Fox News tonight.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:55 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


a secret self-destructing email system that leaves no trace

Ehh, sounds like sales bullshit to hype up how "cloak and dagger" they are. I'll believe it when Bruce Schneier writes an analysis.


I believe that Cambridge Analytica is talking about their use of ProtonMail for client communication, which does support "self-destruct" after a mail is read.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:57 PM on March 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


NRA to spend $15m on ads to defeat Hillary Clinton in key states [Guardian: Fri 16 Sep 2016]
Another key big-money link involves the hedge fund tycoon Robert Mercer, who has given a pro-Trump Super Pac at least $2m, and is also a lifetime NRA member and a Koch network donor. This year Cambridge Analytica, a voter data firm in which Mercer is a key investor, has worked with the Herald Group, a DC-based consulting firm, to implement the NRA’s “Trigger the Vote” drive to register new voters and get them to the polls. i360, a big voter data firm that is closely tied to the Koch donor network, has also been involved in the Trigger the Vote campaign.


Don't forget that the Kochs are now part owners of Meredith Corp, who now own all of all of Time Inc. They have dozens of big web properties and 13 local TV stations. Meredith has data on 100 million+ Americans (probably more once they finish merging with Time). I have this terrible feeling that the Kochs backing of the Meredith-Time deal is really about i360 taking Cambridge Analytica's lead with this microtargeting crap, and gaining access to way more data.
posted by scottatdrake at 1:58 PM on March 20, 2018 [22 favorites]


> a secret self-destructing email system that leaves no trace

This is part and parcel of the Cambridge Analytica bullshit - the more I hear about them, the more I think they found a good gig blowing smoke up the asses of technically-unqualified people with money to burn.

For example, any self-destructing email system is trivially defeated by your mobile phone camera taking a snapshot of the email displayed on your monitor. The way self-destructing email could work is when *both* parties - sender and recipient - would like the email to go away and leave them with plausible deniability when the subpoenas arrive. Which, yes, is definitely possible, using a time-dependent encryption / decryption key that is securely disposed of afterwards.

And so, if a lot of CA's (sorry, "CamAnal's" is just... weird) puffery about psychometric profiling is bullshit, I bet that they will turn out to be a key clearinghouse for money (from e.g. the Mercers) and Russian meddling and the Trump campaign - breaking every Federal election and campaign finance law there is, pretty much.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:00 PM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


BuzzFeed: Fox News Strategic Analyst Lt Col Ralph Peters (Ret) has quit Fox News.
Four decades ago, I took an oath as a newly commissioned officer. I swore to "support and defend the Constitution," and that oath did not expire when I took off my uniform. Today, I feel that Fox News is assaulting our constitutional order and the rule of law, while fostering corrosive and unjustified paranoia among viewers. Over my decade with Fox, I long was proud of the association. Now I am ashamed.
...
As a Russia analyst for many years, it also has appalled me that hosts who made their reputations as super-patriots and who, justifiably, savaged President Obama for his duplicitous folly with Putin, now advance Putin's agenda by making light of Russian penetration of our elections and the Trump campaign. Despite increasingly pathetic denials, it turns out that the "nothing-burger" has been covered with Russian dressing all along. And by the way: As an intelligence professional, I can tell you that the Steele dossier rings true--that's how the Russians do things.. The result is that we have an American president who is terrified of his counterpart in Moscow.
This is the guy who called Obama a "total pussy" who was "date raped" by Putin.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:06 PM on March 20, 2018 [86 favorites]


How much internal server/Protonmail-only email could they possibly be getting and sending? Everyone they communicate with gets a copy of the email.

They should know that computers have long memories. That seems like something they should know, in their field. Someone should tell them.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 2:06 PM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


The way that ProtonMail works for non-ProtonMail addresses is that it sends a HTML link back to ProtonMail's servers. The recipient needs a passphrase to access the email. It is assumed that the ProtonMail user will share this passphrase through a separate secure channel.

The content of the message never reaches the recipient's email client. (Though as RedOrGreen notes, photographing or just screen-shotting the browser viewing the message could preserve the contents.)
posted by murphy slaw at 2:10 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


(my point here is not that Cambridge Analytica is not peddling bullshit. It's just that they're not peddling unadulterated bullshit.)
posted by murphy slaw at 2:13 PM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


The really horrifying thing to me is that even if Cambridge Analytica and every firm it touched gets nailed to the wall for this, there's nothing to prevent all this from happening again unless something is done about Citizen's United and campaign finance reform in general.

Actions you can take to correct Citizens United: Donate and volunteer for Represent.Us. Share this information with your social circle, contact your reps and ask them to support the American Anti-Corruption Act.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 2:13 PM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Following up on the "jungle primary" comments above, I'd like to reiterate that some flavor of ranked-choice or approval voting would be a huge improvement over both traditional FPTP elections and jungle/top-two primary systems. A top-two system is probably an improvement over FPTP in that it resembles a dumbed-down ranked-choice system, but it doesn't go far enough to actually fix the problems inherent in FPTP. I don't care all that much which ranked-choice system is implemented, because the trade-offs between the various systems are fairly subtle, and all of them are, IMHO, vastly better than any system in widespread use today.
posted by shponglespore at 2:19 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Despite increasingly pathetic denials, it turns out that the "nothing-burger" has been covered with Russian dressing all along.

This guy sounds like an asshole overall, but damn if this didn't make me laugh
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:25 PM on March 20, 2018 [36 favorites]


Having called out Fox News for ignoring the Stormy Daniels story, her lawyer Michael Avenatti will be interviewed on Fox News tonight.

Yeah, but during the 11pm hour, effectively burying the interview. They really don’t want Trump seeing it.
posted by Fleebnork at 2:26 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]




Stormy Daniels just now on Twitter, responding to the usual "blah blah go away" slut-shaming:

Technically I didn't sleep with the POTUS 12 years ago. There was no sleeping (hehe) and he was just a goofy reality TV star. But I digress...People DO care that he lied about it, had me bullied, broke laws to cover it up, etc. And PS...I am NOT going anywhere. xoxoxo

I haven't been following this story closely, but that would seem to be the clearest public statement on what happened she has made so far, isn't it?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [53 favorites]


The really horrifying thing to me is that even if Cambridge Analytica and every firm it touched gets nailed to the wall for this, there's nothing to prevent all this from happening again unless something is done about Citizen's United and campaign finance reform in general.

Not that we don't have a vital and urgent need for campaign finance reform, but a few hundred thousand computers and phones infected with a virus or other malware could collect the same information and more as the few hundred thousand people taking a personality test did, even if everyone abandons Facebook en masse and switches to an open-source decentralized social media app.

The fundamental problem is that our social interactions with other people are mediated through devices and software that are able to conduct surveillance on those interactions, and on top of that it's accepted as normal anyways for the producers of the devices and software to conduct all manner of surveillance on us. We aren't going to stop using devices and software to interact with each other over the internet, so unfortunately I think that to genuinely deal with this problem will require much deeper society-level reforms than changes in campaign finance: we need to accept that this sort of surveillance is ubiquitous and embedded in our lives and institute guarantees that the ubiquity of surveillance doesn't solely benefit the wealthy and powerful.

We need to ensure that this great flow of surveillance data, which we aren't going to be able to stop or get rid of, and which provides leverage as we see here to the powerful over the marginalized and the average citizen, is accessible and balances out by also providing leverage over the powerful for the marginalized and the average citizen. There's no getting around the fact that for the rest of human history, more and more of the physical objects in the world are going to be spying on us all the time but that state of affairs has to benefit everyone. It's probably not possible to have it benefit everyone equally, but the ability of Cambridge Analytica clients and their ilk to push the rest of us around with insight into every detail of our lives must be offset by transparency and insight for the rest of us into what those powers-that-be are doing all the time.
posted by XMLicious at 2:31 PM on March 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


Given that the most notable proponent of Flat Earth theory in the US is an African-American NBA player (who likely has his own cultural reasons for distrusting mainstream science),
WTF? No. First off, please don't make Kyrie Irving's flat earth thing racial. Second, Irving was trolling.
posted by TwoStride at 2:35 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


but mostly they just really, really, like the idea of social hierarchy and having superiors. They're discomforted by the idea of true equality

Like so very many other things in life, the answer lies somewhere in between, but we don’t make a lot of room for it.

In the Spanish Civil War, it was sadly thought it was undemocratic to do such things as give the best rifles to the best shooters, or to have the people who were most experienced at fighting be in charge. This was, to put it mildly, a mistake. It is not always an “unequal” idea to put people who are good at doing things in charge of doing things, or to have some form of hierarchy.

At the same time, that can be taken too far, creating essentially hereditary aristocracies, whether formal or informal, and the like, or people who believe in Prosperity Doctrine.

But whenever we are giving a simplistic explanation for a complicated phenomenon, we are probably missing something.
posted by corb at 2:36 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


Axios: Suspended Cambridge Analytica (CA) CEO Alexander Nix said his firm "ran all the digital campaign" for President Donald Trump.
Speaking about his appearance in front of Congress, Nix said, "They’re politicians, they’re not technical. They don’t understand how it works...They don’t understand because the candidate never, is never involved. He’s told what to do by the campaign team."
When asked, "So the candidate is the puppet?" by the undercover reporter, Nix replied, "Always.
posted by adamvasco at 2:39 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


The national GOP is flummoxed over what to do about the surging candidacy of coal baron and ex-con Don Blankenship.

How do you screw up a pretty easy win against Manchin? Nominate someone who served prison time for killing 29 employees in his coal mines.
posted by octothorpe at 2:43 PM on March 20, 2018 [48 favorites]


Perennial concern specter John McCain currently spectering on behalf of disenfranchised... Russians?
In a statement, McCain called Trump's phone call to Putin an insult to "every Russian citizen who was denied the right to vote in a free and fair election to determine their country's future."
posted by hanov3r at 2:47 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


How do you screw up a pretty easy win against Manchin?

Easy win? Manchin is quite popular, with a net favorability of like +20. Everything I've seen rates his race as no worse than toss-up. Like Conor Lamb he is a guy who reflects but is not slavish to his constituency.
posted by Justinian at 2:50 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


(They tend to rate it as toss-up because Manchin loses narrowly in polls against "generic Republican" but usually wins in low double digits when you plug in an actual name for "generic R".)
posted by Justinian at 2:52 PM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


I'm not too thrilled about the 'puppet' thing. As more evidence comes out about all of this stuff, the next Republican defense will be that Trump didn't know, and it seems like Skeevy Nix (I don't usually do nicknames, but that one's really good), intentionally or not (pfft, of course it's intentional), is helping to make that case.
posted by box at 2:52 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Trump knew. Don't you make me post that link again of Sarah Kendzior detailing out his 30 year history of Russian dealings and presidential runs.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 2:56 PM on March 20, 2018 [27 favorites]


He's not supposed to know. Bannon knows he's not supposed to know, hence the freakout when the Trumps made contact with the Russian side of the operation.

But probably he knew.
posted by Artw at 2:59 PM on March 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


The Guardian's Carole Cadwalladr:
Cambridge Analytica exists only on paper. Alexander Nix is CEO of SCL Elections. From which he hasn't been suspended.

Alexander Nix has been suspended from a shell company that has no employees and no assets. If you think this ends here, think again.

Meanwhile, there's a new kid in town. Emerdata.
With all the same directors...

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:03 PM on March 20, 2018 [65 favorites]




Kushner deffo knew, though. He's going to be ultra mega Piper Chapman levels of privileged insufferable in prison and this makes me happy.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 3:05 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


Re upthread discussion of Protonmail

The content of the message never reaches the recipient's email client.

Interesting. Can you forward it, or respond to it? Presumably you could print it, or screenshot it?
posted by A Terrible Llama at 3:06 PM on March 20, 2018


That would be rather dumb to do and defeat the object.So...
posted by Artw at 3:14 PM on March 20, 2018


Meanwhile, in Democrat-land, the Overton window seems to be inching leftward: Why Democrats Should Embrace a Federal Jobs Guarantee (Sean McElwee, Colin McAuliffe and Jon Green, The Nation):
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand told The Nation she supports a government-backed jobs guarantee. “Guaranteed jobs programs, creating floors for wages and benefits, and expanding the right to collectively bargain are exactly the type of roles that government must take to shift power back to workers and our communities,” she said. “Corporate interests have controlled the agenda in Washington for decades so we can’t tinker at the margins and expect to rebuild the middle class and stamp out inequality. We need to get back to an economy that rewards workers, not just shareholder value and CEO pay.”

...The results of the Civis polling were nothing short of stunning, showing large net support for a job guarantee: 52 percent in support, 29 percent opposed and the rest don’t know. “Even with explicit partisan framing and the inclusion of revenue in the wording, this is one of the most popular issues we’ve ever polled,” said David Shor, a senior data scientist at Civis Analytics.
Everybody but (surprise!) Trump voters loves a job guarantee (and even some of them!). Black, Latinx, and young voters are especially enthusiastic. I hope this can translate to the ballot box.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:19 PM on March 20, 2018 [65 favorites]


That would be rather dumb to do and defeat the object.So...


You mean why would you print a secure email? You wouldn't, unless you were the sort of person who liked to store up information to use if things go wonky, and things are likely to go wonky when you are working for a company that uses self-destructing email. A person might want to prove their innocence some day in the future, or someone else's guilt, or be concerned that the company's lawyer might go after them, or regulators. Or they might work for a creep and dream of the day they get to dish all of the dirt that they accumulated.

If I suspected I worked with a bunch of criminals who would throw me under the bus at the slightest provocation, I sure as fuck would be taking notes.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 3:19 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


...or maybe they would just like to do a little casual blackmail. Why not? It seems the rage.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 3:20 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


More on Emerdata, journalist Wendy Siegelman: Cambridge Analytica executives created a company with the Executive Director & Deputy Chairman of Erik Prince’s Frontier Services Group

Erik Prince's associates and the Cambridge Analytica crew together like chocolate and peanut butter? Quelle surprise. That whole Alfa Bank/Trump Org/Spectrum Health server business and the too pat NYT/FBI attempt to throw a bucket of cold water on it looks more and more like the press got hold of a card the FBI wasn't ready to play just yet when it was first reported, and they were trying to play dumb for damage control.
posted by jason_steakums at 3:22 PM on March 20, 2018 [48 favorites]


In response to a question about why Andrew Cuomo is problematic: Andrew Cuomo instituted the Moreland Commission to Investigate Public Corruption and then shut it down when it got too close to him.

“It’s not a legal question. The Moreland Commission was my commission,” Mr. Cuomo explained. “It’s my commission. My subpoena power, my Moreland Commission. I can appoint it, I can disband it. I appoint you, I can un-appoint you tomorrow.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:22 PM on March 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


Jeff Flake just floated impeachment on Twitter
posted by dis_integration at 3:23 PM on March 20, 2018 [35 favorites]


Hi, can someone explain why we don't like Cuomo?

Lots of strong hints of political corruption. Real political corruption, not Hillary Clintonesque NEOLIBERAL SHILL fake corruption.
posted by Justinian at 3:23 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


My favorite conspiracy piece, for some reason, has been the servers between Spectrum Health, Alfa Bank and Trump Co. This is probably because of the mysterious tip that came up tracking DNS requests. Anyhow...

On reddit, there is a new theory popping up that would explain that: Spectrum Health has all of the National Healthcare Databases available. Virtually the whole country's worth of names, SSN's, addresses, phone numbers, e-mails, everything. And it's geolocated.

On preview: jason_steakums is stealing thoughts out of my brain.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 3:23 PM on March 20, 2018 [36 favorites]


Artw: Bannon knows he's not supposed to know, hence the freakout when the Trumps made contact with the Russian side of the operation.

How uninformed/stupid must Bannon have been, to think Trump and the Russians would somehow stop talking to each other?

Regardless, I'm sort of pleased about the "puppet" comment because it can drive a wedge between Donald and Nix/Analytica. It's not like Donald will agree to a narrative whereby he was duped, and we all saw how he reacted the last time he was called a puppet.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:25 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


creating floors for wages and benefits

Let's add ceilings, too! Cap CEO salaries at, say 20 times entry level instead of the current 271 times.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [69 favorites]


Bannon knows he's not supposed to know, hence the freakout when the Trumps made contact with the Russian side of the operation.

If this is the way it went down, the best part is how idiots from the Trump campaign just. kept. doing it. Papadopoulos, Page, Sessions, Don Jr... it's like stupid whack-a-mole, and just comically escalating panic attacks for Bannon.
posted by jason_steakums at 3:31 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Floors, ceilings, and collective bargaining. I think we might be onto something here.
posted by stonepharisee at 3:36 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Hi, can someone explain why we don't like Cuomo?

He's supporting a splinter faction of NY Senate Dems that caucus with the Republicans to block all manner of progressive legislation that could probably otherwise pass in the 2nd bluest state in the country. NY as a state is not a leader on pretty much any legislative front, when it really should be competing with California to implement progressive policies the fastest.

Cuomo is the worst of party machine politics, he makes complaints about the Clinton machine seem cute by comparison. He'd be by far the worst Democratic 2020 nominee of the major candidates.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:39 PM on March 20, 2018 [47 favorites]


Jeff Flake just floated impeachment on Twitter

This would carry more weight if Flake hadn't led with "We are begging the president not to fire the special counsel" and concluded with "Mr. President, please don't go there." His overall message sounds more tailored to the Republicans voters who might consider him in 2020 as a challenger to Trump than one aimed at the White House.

It's on a par with Lindsey Graham's tepid response “Probably so, if he did it without cause. Yeah.” in a radio interview this morning with conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt about impeachment if Trump fired Mueller.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:43 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


Sounds more like a “we’re powerless to stop you” than a “we’ll do anything about it”, TBH.
posted by Artw at 3:46 PM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


It's on a par with Lindsey Graham's tepid response “Probably so, if he did it without cause. Yeah.”

That signals to me that Graham, and likely the rest of the GOP, is ready to accept whatever "cause" Trump can come up with.
posted by Mister Fabulous at 3:49 PM on March 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


@mrtickle3
Lobby of Cambridge Analytica's office in London. This really does not look good, and the Information Commissioner has confirmed it has nothing to do with them.
posted by Artw at 3:50 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


@mrtickle3
Lobby of Cambridge Analytica's office in London. This really does not look good, and the Information Commissioner has confirmed it has nothing to do with them.


The implication being that this is now a criminal investigation? Or is the implication that CA is removing all their own evidence? Hard to tell from the thread.
posted by Existential Dread at 3:56 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


This really does not look good...

I mean, I suppose it is a bit late in the year to be just now taking down the Christmas decorations, but that's no excuse for holiday-shaming!
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:56 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Why has their UK office not been raided yet? Do judges in the UK only work 3 days a week or something? Or is May worried about the legitimacy of the Brexit vote? They're openly packing up documents, all they need is a neon sign that says "WE ARE SHREDDING EVIDENCE"
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:59 PM on March 20, 2018 [32 favorites]


I think they are quietly being allowed to shred all the evidence, yes.
posted by Artw at 4:02 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


"The Trump–Daniels damages clause is illegal, in my opinion. Contract remedies compensate for the harm caused by a breach; unlike criminal sanctions, they are not used to deter or punish and may not enrich." Why Trump probably won't collect $20M.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 4:03 PM on March 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


@mrtickle3
Lobby of Cambridge Analytica's office in London. This really does not look good, and the Information Commissioner has confirmed it has nothing to do with them.


Removing anything to do with Brexit, IMHO. Before the search warrant is signed.
posted by popcassady at 4:05 PM on March 20, 2018 [32 favorites]


I mean, it's worth noting that destruction of evidence (at least in the states, and presumably across the pond as well) is a great way to get a big jail sentence. And these idiots are boxing things up in front of the public and in front of cameras. I'm guessing they may actually be prepping documents for transfer to the authorities under advice of their attorneys.
posted by Existential Dread at 4:11 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


The Washington Post: Conservative lobbyist Jack Burkman, trying to "solve" the murder of Seth Rich, claims to have been nearly murdered by Kevin Doherty, one of his "investigative" staffers working for something called The Profiling Project "to build a psychological portrait of Rich’s likely killer". He was shot in the buttocks and thigh.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:17 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


"The Trump–Daniels damages clause is illegal, in my opinion. Contract remedies compensate for the harm caused by a breach; unlike criminal sanctions, they are not used to deter or punish and may not enrich." Why Trump probably won't collect $20M.

Up to now Trump's been able to bluff on a bad contract, but at this point it's pretty clear that he's NEVER had a Varsity Legal Team. He's got the Staten Island Yankees, and not the ones up in the Bronx....
posted by mikelieman at 4:20 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


WAPO: President Trump did not follow specific warnings from his national security advisers when he congratulated Russian President Vladi­mir Putin Tuesday on his reelection, including a section in his briefing materials in all-capital letters stating “DO NOT CONGRATULATE,” according to officials familiar with the call.
posted by PenDevil at 4:22 PM on March 20, 2018 [135 favorites]


You guys remember the time there was an eclipse and he stared directly at it
posted by saturday_morning at 4:23 PM on March 20, 2018 [141 favorites]


It was not clear whether Trump read the notes, administration officials said.

RON HOWARD: It was clear.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:25 PM on March 20, 2018 [56 favorites]


WAPO: President Trump did not follow specific warnings from his national security advisers when he congratulated Russian President Vladi­mir Putin Tuesday on his reelection, including a section in his briefing materials in all-capital letters stating “DO NOT CONGRATULATE,” according to officials familiar with the call.

Obama also congratulated Putin on his "win" back in 2012, but at that point we were still trying to salvage relations.
posted by Talez at 4:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Why not just put DO NOT RESIGN in his notes, White House staffers? Then you could all go home.
posted by emjaybee at 4:29 PM on March 20, 2018 [78 favorites]


In Josh Marshall's interview with counterintelligence expert Asha Rangappa, towards the end they speculate that one reason for the muted Trump response to the UK spy poisoning is that Trump needs to leave open a similar endgame option for Paul Manafort. (The whole thing is really good.)
posted by johnny jenga at 4:38 PM on March 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


I'm getting kind of annoyed with the coverage of Cambridge Analytica on every news report that involves portraying the Facebook API and applications which rectally probe you and your friends' and relatives' profiles using it as some kind of benign thing which CA wickedly perverted and corrupted.

Zuck: I am shocked—shocked—to find that exploiting people by collecting all the datas is going on in here!
Croupier: Your IPO winnings, sir.
posted by XMLicious at 4:43 PM on March 20, 2018 [49 favorites]


Does this work, Cambridge Analytica Is Shady. But Facebook Is Shadier.?
posted by peeedro at 4:45 PM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


Cambridge Analytica is the symptom; Facebook is the disease.
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:48 PM on March 20, 2018 [23 favorites]


Are there circumstances where destroying evidence is treated as effectively identical to evidence for the worst likely crime that evidence would have pointed to? Like, when is it legally a safer bet to destroy evidence? Conversely, doesn't taking that bet automatically suggest that the worst should be assumed?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 4:54 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


There's room for lots of diseases.
posted by Artw at 4:54 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Justinian: "Easy win? Manchin is quite popular, with a net favorability of like +20. Everything I've seen rates his race as no worse than toss-up. Like Conor Lamb he is a guy who reflects but is not slavish to his constituency."

This, exactly. West Virginians like him, and with incumbency and the national environment behind him, he's likely to win. I'd put *several* Dem Senators ahead of him in terms of vulnerability.

That said, the GOP is still right to be freaking about Blankenship. He'd turn a decent-ish shot at the seat into a minuscule one, and maybe even have knock-on effects downballot. The guy is a murderer.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:56 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


It is glorious poetic justice that Trump's inability to pay someone, anyone, the amount of money they deserve is a contributor to his downfall. Did he really think $130,000 would be enough money to keep someone that had an affair with a President of the United States quiet? Stormy Daniels could write a pamphlet about her story and make more than $130,000.

The NDA states that Daniels is on the hook for $1M for each violation. (Cohen brought a $20M suit based on that clause recently.)


Pretty sure that what Daniels and Avenatti are doing here, dangling tasty info tidbits and teasing the upcoming Mar 25 60 Minutes interview already in the can, is re-negotiating Stormy's $130k payoff. If all goes according to plan, she will get a hefty 7-figure wire transfer on Mar 24-25, promptly shut up, and laugh all the way back to the bank.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:58 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


You've gotta think 60 Minutes has protected themselves against that, though. They wouldn't put so much on the line and then leave open an avenue for Daniels to block them from airing the tape, surely?
posted by saturday_morning at 5:03 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


The whole point of the Clifford payout is that OUR PRESIDENT* CAN BE BLACKMAILED. Or country. Our economy. Whatever, he'll give it up. That's the problem here.
posted by Dashy at 5:07 PM on March 20, 2018 [56 favorites]


Pretty much what Dashy says.
If Clifford gets out from under the NDA and the story gets out, she gets paid somehow (I'm sure) and the story gets out.
If she doesn't get out from under the NDA, the swirl of rumors and doubt is still there. Which makes me figure it almost doesn't matter.
And if she does come to a super secret side-deal to get her to shut up...she gets paid, and we all see stark evidence that Trump is susceptible to blackmail.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:26 PM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


on the other hand, if you were a successful woman in an under-appreciated field, wouldn’t you want to ruin a guy like donald trump if you could, just for the lulz?
posted by murphy slaw at 5:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [34 favorites]


What on earth does this guy consider to be so shady he wants to cover it up?
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:29 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


First results now trickling in on Illinois primaries. Pritzker off to an early lead for Dem Governor. No numbers just yet in the District 3 Dem primary between Lipinski & Newman. (GO NEWMAN!)
posted by darkstar at 5:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


IL primary - Early yet, but incumbent Gov Rauner looking like he is seriously underperforming in the GOP primary against far right state Rep Ives. He may well be in trouble here.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


on the other hand, if you were a successful woman in an under-appreciated field, wouldn’t you want to ruin a guy like donald trump if you could, just for the lulz?

Counterpoint.
posted by rhizome at 5:34 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


What on earth does this guy consider to be so shady he wants to cover it up?

That he has tiny hands and a bad wig.
posted by petebest at 5:35 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


is the general sentiment that Ives could win the primary and be too extreme for the general?
posted by murphy slaw at 5:37 PM on March 20, 2018


What on earth does this guy consider to be so shady he wants to cover it up?
So here's the thing. I don't think that having sex with a porn star hurts Trump at all. I think that having his sexual performance mocked by a really smart, funny porn star could hurt him quite a bit.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:37 PM on March 20, 2018 [37 favorites]


is the general sentiment that Ives could win the primary and be too extreme for the general?

Yes, very much so.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:38 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


What on earth does this guy consider to be so shady he wants to cover it up?

There's a part in the NDA that discusses paternity tests. There was a question asked in the polygraph test regarding unprotected vaginal sex.

I think having an affair, getting the person pregnant, and then insisting on an abortion would be that shady.
posted by mikelieman at 5:44 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


on the other hand, if you were a successful woman in an under-appreciated field, wouldn’t you want to ruin a guy like donald trump if you could, just for the lulz?

Or...if you were a patriot or just a plain old human being, wouldn't you want to ruin Donald Trump if you could, just for the sake of the country and the world?
posted by uosuaq at 5:45 PM on March 20, 2018 [50 favorites]


What on earth does this guy consider to be so shady he wants to cover it up?

There's a part in the NDA that discusses paternity tests. There was a question asked in the polygraph test regarding unprotected vaginal sex.

I think having an affair, getting the person pregnant, and then insisting on an abortion would be that shady.


Stormy's lawyer has been very clear that that language is boilerplate and there is no paternity/abortion issue.
posted by chris24 at 5:47 PM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


I mean...the fact that the President of the United States has a boilerplate clause for paternity tests/abortions. What makes it "boilerplate" is you have to use the same thing so often that there's no reason to change the wording.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:52 PM on March 20, 2018 [39 favorites]


Oh, I'd bet every penny I have that he's paid for an abortion. I'm just saying it's not with Stormy. And that contract language isn't the reason for the over the top reaction, since we're getting the reaction after we already know about that language.
posted by chris24 at 5:54 PM on March 20, 2018 [12 favorites]


Stormy's lawyer has been very clear that that language is boilerplate and there is no paternity/abortion issue.

I remember that too. That's what I would say in public until I dropped that depth charge.

Remember, at about the same time as the Daniels' NDA Hush Money payoff, Jane Doe -- who appeared to be prevailing on the evidence of her claim that DJT and convicted pervert Jeffrey Epstein, who has a history of that sort of thing. ( more Guardian excellence ) -- withdrew her lawsuit, citing "death threats" as the reason.

There's no bottom limit to the depravity of Donald J. Trump, and it's freaking 2018, so there is no "Normal" anymore.
posted by mikelieman at 5:55 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Early yet, but incumbent Gov Rauner looking like he is seriously underperforming in the GOP primary against far right state Rep Ives. He may well be in trouble here.

Eesh. I know some Democrats are hoping Ives will win, figuring that she'll be an easy opponent in the general, but that was also the party's disposition toward Trump back in early '16. I want Ives as far from a chance at real power as possible.
posted by Iridic at 5:55 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


Conservative lobbyist Jack Burkman, trying to "solve" the murder of Seth Rich...was shot in the buttocks....

Narrowly missing his head.
posted by orange ball at 5:57 PM on March 20, 2018 [24 favorites]


I remember that too. That's what I would say in public until I dropped that depth charge.

She also an adult actress performing without condoms. The idea that she isn't/wasn't on birth control always seemed weird to me.
posted by chris24 at 5:57 PM on March 20, 2018 [4 favorites]


I thought the deal with Daniels was that she had evidence his predilections involved, uh, dominatrices.
posted by Anonymous at 5:59 PM on March 20, 2018


Oh, I get to be the one to post this?

Bannon oversaw Cambridge Analytica’s collection of Facebook data, according to former employee

By Craig Timberg, Karla Adam andMichael Kranish
"Conservative strategist Stephen K. Bannon oversaw Cambridge Analytica’s early efforts to collect troves of Facebook data as part of an ambitious program to build detailed profiles of millions of American voters, a former employee of the data-science firm said Tuesday.

The 2014 effort was part of a high-tech form of voter persuasion touted by the company, which under Bannon identified and tested the power of anti-establishment messages that later would emerge as central themes in President Trump’s campaign speeches, according to Chris Wylie, who left the company at the end of that year.

Among the messages tested were “drain the swamp” and “deep state,” he said.
...

“We had to get Bannon to approve everything at this point. Bannon was Alexander Nix’s boss,” said Wylie, who was Cambridge Analytica’s research director. “Alexander Nix didn’t have the authority to spend that much money without approval.”
...
In focus groups arranged to test messages for the 2014 midterms, these voters responded to calls for building a new wall to block the entry of illegal immigrants, to reforms intended the “drain the swamp” of Washington’s entrenched political community and to thinly veiled forms of racism toward African Americans called “race realism,” he recounted.

The firm also tested views of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The only foreign thing we tested was Putin,” he said. “It turns out, there’s a lot of Americans who really like this idea of a really strong authoritarian leader and people were quite defensive in focus groups of Putin’s invasion of Crimea.”"
posted by OnceUponATime at 6:00 PM on March 20, 2018 [52 favorites]


She also an adult actress performing without condoms.

Not 100% sure about that -- I watched a couple of her videos, and they included condoms, fwiw.
posted by FelliniBlank at 6:00 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


Click through on that article for damning details about how Cambridge Analytica was founded in the first place, by the way.
posted by OnceUponATime at 6:01 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Wasn't there already a pretty thorough account of the Stormy/Donald encounter just recently? From news outlets she'd already talked to before the NDA (but which had kept quiet until this year)? I didn't just dream up the Fortune Magazine spanking, right?

If I had to speculate about what could possibly be so damning that they care this much, I can imagine roleplay-acting involving inclinations that we already know the president has because he goes out of his way to tell us. I won't articulate it because it's that disgusting (heck, it would make a few people look sideways at Stormy), but I think you know what I'm getting at.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:12 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


from that article:
Heather Nauert, the acting undersecretary for public diplomacy, said Tuesday that the contract was signed in November 2016, under the Obama administration, and has not expired yet. In public records, the contract is dated in February 2017, and the reason for the discrepancy was not clear. Nauert said that the State Department had signed other contracts with SCL Group in the past.

that story stinks to high heaven. obama admin signed a contract with CA right around the election? reciepts, please.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:12 PM on March 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


New from Pew:

56% of women and 58% of four-year college graduates now identify as Democrats or Dem leaners. Only 37% of women and 36% of college grads identify or lean as GOP.

And a big shift (11 points) in college educated whites to D. "Most white voters with at least a four-year college degree (53%) affiliate with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic; 42% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. As recently as two years ago, leaned partisan identification among white college graduates was split (47% Democrat, 47% Republican). "
posted by chris24 at 6:21 PM on March 20, 2018 [32 favorites]


and it seems like Skeevy Nix (I don't usually do nicknames, but that one's really good),

The proper plural is Nix name, like attorneys general or cappies bara.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:23 PM on March 20, 2018 [18 favorites]


IL: JB Pritzker wins the Dem gubernatorial primary. He's the multi-billionaire one.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:24 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


how many of these new democrats are only yankees fans during the playoffs
posted by murphy slaw at 6:26 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


It could also be he simply told her where one or more of the many bodies are buried from some particular grift or grifts, or how mobbed up he was/is, or something like that.

Otherwise, I cannot imagine a sex act depraved enough to make his base, or indeed, any republicans, care. I mean, even if it was video of Clifford made up to look exactly like his daughter and blah blah, I suspect no one would blink.
posted by maxwelton at 6:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


Otherwise, I cannot imagine a sex act depraved enough to make his base, or indeed, any republicans, care.

Now imagine if she were *horrors* a man.
posted by Justinian at 6:32 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


Now imagine if she were *horrors* a man.

If she topped him, for those assholes it's practically the same thing.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:36 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


murphy slaw: that story stinks to high heaven. obama admin signed a contract with CA right around the election? reciepts, please.

Reading Wikipedia about it, it sounds like the State Department engaging in classic CIA-type stuff.

Shit, I'd never considered this, but maybe the ultimate defense they'll mount really is going to be the old "Hey, the USA meddles in other countries so Russian activity is a non-story". Like, all the Republicans will just say "Whelp, you can't exactly impeach someone who behaved, as a candidate, the same way our own government's worst elements do, can you?"
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:45 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


IL: Challenger Kaegi wins the Cook County Assessor's race. That may not sound important, but the Assessor's office drives a lot of stuff in Chicago, and the incumbent was notoriously corrupt and seemingly racist.

There's still a bit of a question, due to some controversy regarding a third candidate, but I would guess nothing comes of it.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:48 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


I admittedly havent been following Illinois politics much since I moved away after college, but Pritzker has struck me as mostly okay for a super rich dude... but the usual suspects in the usual places I am following are talking like they're going to commit ritual suicide over his nomination? Is he really that terrible?
posted by Justinian at 6:49 PM on March 20, 2018


I'll defer to Eyebrows McGee, but I think he's basically bog-standard IL Dem. He's not awful, he'll be much better than Rauner (or, needless to say, Ives).

A lot of power in IL is tied up with House Speaker Mike Madigan, and that won't be changing this time.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:53 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


I expect that an awful lot of his base would probably be kind of horrified and disgusted if it came out

And, the MeFie award, for Zeigeistiest Username, goes to . .

(Sorry, I'm having a little trouble with the envelope)
*rip*
Well holy shit, it's Donald T Rump Sex Nightmare!

/legato_strings
posted by petebest at 6:53 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


IL-03 continues to be tight as a drum between Lipinski and Newman. Going down to the wire.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:55 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


IL: Challenger Kaegi wins the Cook County Assessor's race. That may not sound important, but the Assessor's office drives a lot of stuff in Chicago

Indeed.
posted by mikelieman at 6:55 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


So here's the thing. I don't think that having sex with a porn star hurts Trump at all. I think that having his sexual performance mocked by a really smart, funny porn star could hurt him quite a bit.

Remember we're talking about someone who saw fit to reassure America that there was nothing deficient about the size of his penis live on national television, during a primary debate. So, yeah.

On another topic, I'm sure Trump has probably promised to pay for an abortion. Given his track record, maybe his lawyer had to take out another home equity loan instead.
posted by Gelatin at 6:58 PM on March 20, 2018 [10 favorites]


Yahoo investigative reporter Michael Isikoff @isikoff informs us about the company Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-RUS) is keeping these days:
Birds of a feather: Erik Prince, key figure in Russia probe over his secret Seychelles meeting, hosted fundraiser Sunday night for endangered pro-Putin congressman Dana Roharbacher[sic]. "It was like an armed camp," an informant reports. "There were security guards everywhere."
On that note, the Atlantic's Natasha Bertrand @NatashaBertrand has been delving into his role in Russian-Ukrainian covert ties:
Interesting tidbit now that Rohrabacher's back in the news: Felix Sater told me last week that Rohrabacher was given that Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" by the Ukrainian MP Andrei Artemenko last January. Rohrabacher spox hasn't responded to my q's about it.
And:
Rohrabacher “talked with at least five different Ukrainians, all of them anti-Russian, who had proposed some sort of peace plan,” spokesman tells me. “He found the plan interesting and talked it up with colleagues and others,” but never with the White House, spox says.
Incidentally, Rohrabacher is suddenly facing a last-minute GOP challengerin former Republican Assembly Leader Scott Baugh, turning the 48th Congressional District primary into a Republican civil war.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:00 PM on March 20, 2018 [20 favorites]


"IL: Challenger Kaegi wins the Cook County Assessor's race. That may not sound important, but the Assessor's office drives a lot of stuff in Chicago, and the incumbent was notoriously corrupt and seemingly racist."

So I was curious (I've been following Marie Newman and writing Postcards to Voters for her, but hadn't heard of Kaegi), so I took a glance at his website:

Fritz's Plan
Fritz will:

...

Comply with all outstanding Freedom of Information Act requests and make responding to FOIA requests a priority. He will end the current administration’s pattern of resisting FOIA, and will cooperate with any outstanding court orders in regard to its operations, staffing and policy implementation.
Man, I HATE it when government offices are bad about FOIA. I am now a Fan of Fritz!

Thanks for the good news, Chrysostom!
posted by kristi at 7:02 PM on March 20, 2018 [15 favorites]


I would bet a chocolate layer cake on Trump having insisted on a mistress getting an abortion, and then refusing to cover the cost once she'd done so.
posted by suelac at 7:13 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


Yeah, this came up before the election here.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 7:18 PM on March 20, 2018


John Bolton’s Cambridge Analytica Connection
The embattled data firm earned more than $1.1 million from Bolton’s super PAC.
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:19 PM on March 20, 2018 [13 favorites]


Otherwise, I cannot imagine a sex act depraved enough to make his base, or indeed, any republicans, care. I mean, even if it was video of Clifford made up to look exactly like his daughter and blah blah, I suspect no one would blink.

I don't think he's worried about his base, he's worried about his ego. His whole thing is being The Big Dominant Dude. Number One Boss In Charge. Uncontrollable, Nobody tells Trump what to do!

So proof of him being dominated out in public? Something that completely undermines this persona (he thinks) he's built for himself? Dominated by a woman? No wonder he's freaking out.
posted by Anonymous at 7:19 PM on March 20, 2018


I'm watching the Illinois returns on WGN. This is a CATASTROPHE for Rauner. I suspect he'll win, but oh my God, it should never have been this close. (It's also a catastrophe for Illinois that this many people would vote for Jeanne Ives, who is a ghoul and a bigot.)

Kaegi for assessor is GREAT news -- Berrios (incumbent who was just primary-defeated) has a long history of reducing property taxes for the wealthiest (including in the very wealthy suburbs that are part of Cook County) while hiking them on the poor. It's a national embarassment and we've been called out as having super-racist property taxes, and it's true, we do.

JB is a good guy. He has no elected experience but he's been active in progressive politics for 20 years, including backing a lot of young progressives for office with money and training and connections to donors and leaders. He's also hired a really impressive team -- including some of our friends -- who are savvy about the legislature and the governorship and the bureaucracy, which makes me less nervous about having a political neophyte. Truly the most important thing they can do is hire and listen to a good team, and he's done that. He's also upfront about being super-rich, instead of pretending to be a regular farmer guy like Rauner -- it comes across a lot less condescending, and he addresses wealth's corruption of democracy pretty head on, and he's open about having to listen to people because he doesn't have any personal experience of poverty. But yeah, he's not a dilettante billionaire wandering in to buy a governorship; he's been involved for a long time and he doesn't think he knows it all. So, I don't love businessmen neophytes running for governor right off the bat, but he's among the better of that breed.

I will update on Lipinski and Rauner as more numbers come in!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:23 PM on March 20, 2018 [53 favorites]


I am so beyond sick of this topic of Trump and mistresses and sex and I know it's relevant but could we please at least refrain from idle speculation that's effectively fanfiction about who did what to whom, please and thank you

So this comment has some content, Vox's "Today Explained" podcast had an episode about Ms. Daniels a few days ago (Lady and the Tramp) focusing on the legal implications, especially the campaign finance angle. But I was really surprised that they didn't mention blackmail potential at all.

Also they talked about abolishing ICE on The Weeds.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 7:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [22 favorites]


FWIW, the IL GOP says they plan to spend money opposing the Nazi GOP candidate in IL-03 (you will recall he is the only one who filed, so he is the nominee by default). IL GOP plans to back an independent.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [9 favorites]


@ppppolls
One very encouraging data point for Democrats- in competitive GOP held IL-12, with 83% reporting, Dems have cast 37,339 votes for Congress compared to only 32,059 GOP votes for Congress. Good harbinger for the fall
posted by chris24 at 7:37 PM on March 20, 2018 [8 favorites]


@kylegriffin1 (MSNBC)
Michael Avenatti, Stormy Daniels' attorney, to @AriMelber: "They have stepped into every trap we have laid in this case the last two weeks. It's remarkable. I've never seen anything like it. I've never had good fortune like this, OK? We're going to keep shooting till we miss."
posted by chris24 at 7:38 PM on March 20, 2018 [93 favorites]


Also on turnout, Dem turnout up 200% over 2014, up 30% over 2010 (last competitive gubernatorial). About double GOP turnout statewide.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:40 PM on March 20, 2018 [25 favorites]


I didn't even consider voting Pritzker in the primary because I figure we need fewer billionaires in politics, not more.

I agree, but I have no idea how this can be fixed. One of the justifications Trump supporters gave for endorsing him in the Republican primaries was that Trump's wealth made him incorruptible. (Yes, I know he is actually corrupt and probably not nearly as wealthy as he claims.)

So even low-information types recognise the overriding importance of money in elections, and its corrupting effects. But they don't reason from that to "we should do something to create a level playing field". Instead, they take it as a given and reason that great wealth means a person is less corruptible. They've effectively been trained to equate money with virtue. What I find especially horrifying is the possibility that Clinton (who is frankly not poor herself) lost votes because she wasn't willing to cosplay Ms Moneybags.
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:00 PM on March 20, 2018 [5 favorites]


@ppppolls
Last month we found Bruce Rauner had a 26/63 favorability rating and trailed JB Pritzker 48-35, and tonight's results suggest Rauner's standing has gotten even worse since then
posted by chris24 at 8:01 PM on March 20, 2018 [3 favorites]


The frustrating thing with this (likely) Lipinski win is that IL has open primaries, and since there was no real GOP primary (one candidate, who is a Nazi), Lipinski's bacon was probably saved by GOP voters.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:04 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


"Knowing that Ives got as many votes as she did is making me reassess leaving the city to go downstate ever again."

Yeah, you need to stay out of Kendall and Will and Kane counties, and the Quad Cities and Carbondale. As the votes are standing right now, it's horrifying suburban Republicans who are Ives' strongholds. Rauner did pretty well across the center of the state, and south of 70 it's a fairly even split (by population). Politico has an updating map.

Don't tar downstaters with the Chicago suburban brush.

(Also, these downstate turnouts on the GOP side are RIDICULOUSLY low, the GOP downstate was apparently so disgusted by both candidates that they could barely be bothered to show up to vote.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:04 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


It looks like there are more Stormys brewing (sorry):

NYT: Ex-Playboy Model Karen McDougal Sues to Speak on Alleged Trump Affair
A former Playboy model who claimed she had an affair with Donald J. Trump sued on Tuesday to be released from a 2016 legal agreement restricting her ability to speak, becoming the second woman this month to challenge Trump allies’ efforts during the presidential campaign to bury stories about extramarital relationships.

[...] In other potential legal trouble for the president, a Manhattan judge on Tuesday denied a move by Mr. Trump’s lawyers to block a defamation suit from Summer Zervos, a former “Apprentice” contestant. [...] The judge, Jennifer G. Schecter, cited the Paula Jones harassment case that led to Bill Clinton’s impeachment and said, “It is settled that the president of the United States has no immunity and is ‘subject to the laws’ for purely private acts.”
The can is officially open and the worms are everywhere... Also, karma, man.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:05 PM on March 20, 2018 [60 favorites]


Yeah, you need to stay out of Kendall and Will and Kane counties, and the Quad Cities and Carbondale.

As someone who grew up in IL, just stay out of 217 entirely. There isn't anything there.

618 at least has Madison and St Clair in the STL metro area.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:11 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


Rauner is declaring himself the winner, although major news organizations haven't called for Rauner or Lipinski yet.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:19 PM on March 20, 2018


Oh hey, it's the part of the election thread where we start randomly trashing entire regions of the state/nation. Could we maybe just skip that?

Alternatively, I'm sure I'm not the only one who has some choice anti-Chicago rants saved up.
posted by shenderson at 8:22 PM on March 20, 2018 [17 favorites]


And Wasserman's called it for Lipinski, who squeaks it out by just under 2%.

sigh
posted by Chrysostom at 8:28 PM on March 20, 2018 [2 favorites]


WGN (among other places) is pointing out that DuPage County is still reporting, and that that's a) Ives's home county and b) deep GOP territory with a shit-ton of votes, so Ives is still possible. I confess I was surprised looking at the maps and seeing Kendall, Kane, and Will for Ives but not DuPage. I guess we'll see! She's about 20,000 back, there are definitely 20,000 votes in DuPage -- the GOP commentators seem split on how DuPage will fall. I think Rauner will pull it out, but it's very possible he just declared victory and won't.

Update as I type: Ives is conceding, so Rauner appears to be the winner, even though no news organizations are call it yet. (WGN just called it literally as I typed that.)

Daniel Biss -- the "middle class governor" candidate -- won two counties, McLean and Champaign, or ISU and U of I, basically. So his message sells really well to young voters. I think Biss has voted as an establishment, business-friendly Democrat in the legislature, which sort-of undermined his insurgent, progressive, middle-class message statewide, but it's notable how appealing he was to young voters.

Biss gave a pretty pro-Pritzker concession speech. Kennedy hasn't bothered yet, as far as I can tell. Ives is giving a speech that is STRAIGHT FIRE about Rauner's betrayals of the GOP.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:33 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


I'm getting a strong Gillespie-Stewart vibe from the Rauner-Ivey relationship. Hopefully it helps him as much as it helped Gillespie in VA.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:36 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


They cut to Marie Newman's concession speech, and she is not conceding! She says she's within 1300 votes of Lipinski and she's going to wait until the bitter end -- and she doesn't expect to concede tonight, and she's dismissing her campaign party to go drink across the street because they've run out of time on the room! I might be falling in love.

Pat Quinn has conceded to Kwame Raoul for Democratic AG candidate, thank God. (We can't miss you if you won't go away, Pat!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:45 PM on March 20, 2018 [7 favorites]


Oh man, I was just thinking sadly we would not get any Kornacki at all on the Illinois primaries, but hooray, here he is!
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:46 PM on March 20, 2018 [1 favorite]


With Raoul taking AG, and IL-03 maybe(?) not quite over, I think IL-06 is the only real race left.

Oh, and the non-binding Cook County measure to legalize pot passed 68-32. Hopefully someone takes notice.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on March 20, 2018 [6 favorites]


(Non-Illinois) ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 House:
-- Cohn: Still not clear whether Dem performance will hold up in higher turnout elections. FWIW, this got a fair bit of pushback from the rest of Election Twitter.

-- TX-27: Rep Farenthold, already retiring in light of a sexual harassment scandal, may just outright resign, so as to avoid an Ethics Committee investigation.
** 2018 Senate:
-- FL: Gravis poll has incumbent Dem Nelson up 44-40 over likely opponent Scott.

-- OH: BWU poll has incumbent Dem Brown up about 10 points over either possible GOP nominee.

-- WV: Mentioned earlier, the GOP is concerned that criminal Don Blankenship may manage to take the nomination, torpedoing a not-terrible chance of flipping the seat from Manchin.
** MS Senate special -- Gov Bryant has thrown everyone a curveball, and has apparently decided on Secretary of Agriculture and Commerce Cindy Hyde-Smith as the interim Senator to fill the Cochran seat. Hyde-Smith would still run in the fall for the rest of the term, but the concern is that she's not strong enough of a candidate to torpedo the candidacy of Chris McDaniel.

** Odds & ends
-- That Gravis poll also had the felon re-enfranchisement initiative up 63-25. This needs 60% to pass.

-- Utah has enacted a law that will allow municipalities to implement ranked choice voting.

-- PA GOP legislators have filed a bill for the impeachment of the state Supreme Court justices who voted for the redistricting decision. Now, this is appalling, but all indications are that this doesn't have the support of leadership, so I suspect it goes nowhere.

-- Strong statement by Senate Intel Committee on actions states need to take to guarantee election security.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:07 PM on March 20, 2018 [32 favorites]


This segment from tonight's Anderson Cooper where Michael Avenatti and Michael Cohen's lawyer go at it is highly entertaining (if for no other reason than to watch Anderson Cooper ask "Are you talking about her appearances in the Make America Horny tour?").
posted by triggerfinger at 9:17 PM on March 20, 2018 [11 favorites]


"FWIW, the IL GOP says they plan to spend money opposing the Nazi GOP candidate in IL-03 (you will recall he is the only one who filed, so he is the nominee by default). IL GOP plans to back an independent."

Yes, to say something nice about the IL GOP, they have been consistent and vocal in their opposition of him and their refusal to recognize him as a Republican or to support him in any fashion. (The fact that no candidate was run has to do with an absolute clusterfuck going on in the Cook County GOP where they're all busy excommunicating one another and it's not totally clear who's in charge or who owns the voter data or what else, and Rauner is way too weak a leader (having bought and paid for the state party, and providing around 90% of its funding now) to get his shit together and put up a candidate.) Like it'd be way better if they'd managed to run a candidate, but they've been VERY CLEAR that they're utterly against this guy and if, by some horrific act of God the Devil himself, he were elected, he would not be allowed to caucus with them, and they've already spent money on election lawyers to challenge his petitions to try to drive him out of the race.

The IL GOP deserves plenty of blame for mini-Trump Rauner and for horrific bigot Ives, but they have been firm in their stance against the actual Nazi and deserve props for that. There is a line, and that line is Nazis. (Which is more than you can say for the national party these days!)

Also, unrelatedly, Kwame Raoul has the DORKIEST LAUGH I have ever heard in my life, it's charming.

Here is Pritzker's victory speech (sadly I can't find his running mate's speech online yet, she is great -- Juliana Stratton, the black woman in the pearls on the left side of the screen), he definitely talks the Progressive talk (and bemoans Democrats who lurch to the center to appease Republican and independent voters). I'd be curious how it plays to you guys.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:21 PM on March 20, 2018 [14 favorites]


And Wasserman's called it for Lipinski, who squeaks it out by just under 2%.

Can't fight the Chicago Machine.

There aren't very many places left with true machine politics but Newman found one of them.
posted by Justinian at 11:11 PM on March 20, 2018


@kylegriffin1: Trump just went after Maxine Waters' intelligence again at the NRCC dinner: "I watch this Maxine Waters. You ever see Maxine Waters? A low IQ individual. Low IQ."
posted by zachlipton at 11:27 PM on March 20, 2018 [16 favorites]


NBC News, Notes, emails reveal Trump appointees' war to end HHS teen pregnancy program
The Trump administration’s abrupt cancellation of a federal program to prevent teen pregnancy last year was directed by political appointees over the objections of career experts in the Department of Health and Human Services, which administers the program, according to internal notes and emails obtained by NBC News.

The trove shows three appointees with strict pro-abstinence beliefs — including Valerie Huber, the then-chief of staff for the department's Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health — guided the process to end a program many medical professionals credit with helping to bring the nation’s teen pregnancy rate to an all-time low.
...
A June 2005 study conducted by Case Western Reserve University found that the sexual education programs that Huber ran in Ohio promoting abstinence-only education had “critical problems.” The study suggested the program conveyed “false and misleading information” about abortion, contraceptives and sexually transmitted infections and misrepresented “religious convictions as scientific fact.”
posted by zachlipton at 11:30 PM on March 20, 2018 [36 favorites]


@kylegriffin1: Trump just went after Maxine Waters' intelligence again at the NRCC dinner: "I watch this Maxine Waters. You ever see Maxine Waters? A low IQ individual. Low IQ."

PRO
JEC
TION.

Also known as Trump's Mirror.

(Oh, and he's always been a racist, sexist piece of shit, too.)
posted by CommonSense at 11:34 PM on March 20, 2018 [48 favorites]


BuzzFeed: Fox News Strategic Analyst Lt Col Ralph Peters (Ret) has quit Fox News.

I know I'm late, but if we're quoting this, we're quoting the last line:
So, to all of you: Thanks, and, as our president's favorite world leader would say, "Das vidanya."
posted by zachlipton at 11:44 PM on March 20, 2018 [29 favorites]


Just stumbled upon this threaded breakdown/ review of the Cambridge Analytica business:

Don't think I can speak to it being a comprehensive assessment of what happened but most of it makes sense (backed up by facts). To whit: Remember how Trump kicked off his campaign with disgusting comments about Mexican human beings? What he said to Megyn Kelly on live TV? He was talking to his custom audience, all cued up in the Facebook ads manager, and ready to go.

The gist being that CA were able to assess where they could get the Electoral College votes (in play) that they needed to win and focused all of their efforts on turning out the vote there.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:43 AM on March 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


Harvesting user information and monetizing it is the entire business model of Facebook, Google, Twitter et al. What CA did is not out of the ordinary and I am kind of shocked how all these tech giants are not the focus of several investigations right now. FB is complicit and directly responsible for what happened with CA and not a victim here. There needs to be a serious conversation of what information on users can be kept, used, sold by these companies.

Also, the Austin Bomber seems to have been found. A suspect was found dead in his car. 24 y old, white male.
posted by Megustalations at 3:31 AM on March 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


I know I'm late, but if we're quoting this, we're quoting the last line:
So, to all of you: Thanks, and, as our president's favorite world leader would say, "Das vidanya."


One would have thought that someone who touts himself as a national security expert would know that the Russian farewell is actually spelled something like da svidanya (до свидания).
posted by Gelatin at 3:34 AM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


2014. Steve Bannon. Anti-immigrant messaging. Unbelievable upset.

Dave Brat, you guys. The "Tea party Outsider" who defeated GOP House majority leader Eric Cantor. The guy who made the Republican establishment as a whole so scared they completely scrapped their 2012 "be less racist" report and committed to being anti-immigrant as a core plank of their platform.

From This American Life "The Beginning of Now" about that race...
Larry Nordvig: "Immigration was not the centerpiece of his campaign announcement."
...that donor that we had a meeting with, I know that word ["amnesty"] was, in particular, brought up during that conversation. Amnesty was seen as the ultimate in unfairness, if you will. Just ignoring the rule of law, which is important to Tea Party-type people. So you say the word amnesty in a speech and you got people's attention. And that was equally true of the media." ... I saw Steve Bannon at that event. He had radio interviews going. And it was at that time he basically pointed to a reporter and said, hey, this gentleman here will help you out. 
...
And he took up the Brat-Cantor race as one of Breitbart's crusades."
...
Zoe Chase: I find it remarkable that Ingraham's people were helping out to this degree. She's a radio host. But her producer, Julia Hahn, was really intense about the issue of immigration. Her name came up whenever I asked about media on the Brat campaign. Zach says he thinks it was Julia who wrote the speech. I couldn't confirm that with Julia.

A year later, she was hired by Breitbart to write about immigration. She still works for Steve Bannon, in the White House now.
...
Cantor lost by double digits. He'd spent $5 and 1/2 million. Brat had spent $200,000."
...
As Breitbart said the next day, "Eric Cantor loses referendum on amnesty." Dave Brat won because of immigration."
Bannon was running Cambridge Analytica at the time. Testing anti-immigrant messaging. 2014 is when that started. I will eat my hat if Cambridge Analytica wasn't effectively running Brat's campign. If Mercer (was he "that donor we had a meeting with?") wasn't supplementing that $200k with funding to Cambridge Analytica which was spent on Bear's behalf (plus all the free media he got through Ingraham and Breitbart). But on top of that, Mueller said the Internet Research Agency kicked off their activities in the summer of 2014.which is when Brat primaries Cantor.

It just wouldn't make sense for Cambridge Analytica and the Internet Research Agency to be spinning up their efforts at that moment and NOT be helping Bannon's favorite candidates, the anti-immigrant outsider...

Please, if anybody reading this knows any investigative reporters or anyone on Mueller's team or any politicians who serve on committees that could look into this... someone needs to investigate the campaign of Dave Brat.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:39 AM on March 21, 2018 [90 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
How long did it take for Obama to call Hugo Chavez and congratulate him on his 'reelection?' Who do you think Chavez supports in ours?


@yashar (New York mag)
Retweeted Donald J. Trump
This tweet from October 8, 2012 is really the ultimate example of "there's a tweet for everything".....It has the DO NOT CONGRATULATE element and the foreign interference element.
posted by chris24 at 4:41 AM on March 21, 2018 [47 favorites]


I know that word ["amnesty"] was, in particular, brought up during that conversation. Amnesty was seen as the ultimate in unfairness, if you will.

I'm sure the term "amnesty" got a huge response in Republican focus testing, because the anti-immigrant faction uses it to describe every single immigration reform. Including allowing DREAMers, brought here as minors, to stay in the country.

Just ignoring the rule of law, which is important to Tea Party-type people.

Nice try.
posted by Gelatin at 5:47 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


I'm from Ives' home district, and what I don't get is why Rauner didn't trot out his lieutenant governor, Evelyn Sanguinetti, to campaign against Ives.

They served on the same city council together for a few years and, from what I know, there was no love lost between the two.
posted by JoeZydeco at 6:18 AM on March 21, 2018


I'm also from Ives' home district, and rumor has it that the winner of the R primary for Illinois House 42, Amy Grant (no not that one), will be stepping down shortly so that the GOP can get Ives back on the ballot for the state house election in November. Ives doesn't seem to be going away any time soon.
posted by little king trashmouth at 6:31 AM on March 21, 2018


well, Stormy's lawyer said on MSNBC apparently that they have Trump dick pix, so reach for your anti-emetics of choice
posted by angrycat at 6:37 AM on March 21, 2018 [21 favorites]


Russia, if you’re listening, I hope you can find the missing dick pics and delete them
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:40 AM on March 21, 2018 [95 favorites]


well, Stormy's lawyer said on MSNBC apparently that they have Trump dick pix, so reach for your anti-emetics of choice


uh, is this new? i thought the lawyer said "we have additional evidence" and Unreliable Claude Taylor extrapolated that to dick pics
posted by murphy slaw at 6:43 AM on March 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


Is there a source for that besides @TrueFactsStated? Because he does not, in fact, state true facts.
posted by zachlipton at 6:45 AM on March 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


Bloomberg BNA, Ben Penn, Mulvaney, Acosta Override Regulatory Office to Hide Tips Rule Data
Labor Department leadership convinced OMB Director Mick Mulvaney to overrule the White House regulatory affairs chief and release a controversial tip-sharing rule without data showing it could allow businesses to skim $640 million in gratuities.

Mulvaney sided with Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta over the government’s rulemaking clearinghouse—a little-known but critical wing of the White House called the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs—three current and former executive branch officials told Bloomberg Law. That allowed the department to delete from the proposal internal estimates showing businesses could take hundreds of millions in gratuities from their workers.

The proposed rule, which reverses a 2011 regulation, generally makes it easier for restaurants to implement tip-sharing arrangements among workers who directly earn gratuities and those who don’t.
@jleibenluft: Remember Mulvaney claiming that all he wanted to do at CFPB was "a lot more math," pushing the agency towards quantitative over qualitative analysis? This decision he made at OMB shows that's only true when the data shows what he wants it to....
posted by zachlipton at 6:49 AM on March 21, 2018 [36 favorites]


Donald Trump Has Never Been More Dangerous Than He Is Now (Eric Levitz | NY Mag)
From one angle, it’s been a comforting few weeks for those of us who fear and loathe the Trump presidency. Since early February, public support for the president and his party has declined significantly — erasing the polling gains that both had made at the start of this year. Meanwhile, Democrats have continued to over-perform in special elections, scoring their most impressive victory yet last week, when Conor Lamb bested a better-funded Republican opponent in a Pennsylvania district that had gone for Trump by 20 points. Signs suggest that the GOP’s House majority won’t survive the winter — and that our reality star–in-chief is unlikely to be brought back for a second season.

For progressives, the case for optimism about Trump’s tenure has always gone something like: If he doesn’t get us all killed, the demagogue might just rejuvenate the Democratic base, poison the GOP’s brand, trigger big “blue” wave elections in 2018 and 2020, and thus, ironically, leave U.S. politics in a better place than it had been in circa 2016.

Over the past month, each piece of this scenario has begun to seem a tad more likely — except, that is, for the “doesn’t get us all killed” bit. Of course, Donald Trump is (almost certainly) not going to literally end all human life. But in recent weeks, many of the downside risks of his election — a mass-casualty war, irreparable diplomatic blunder, or constitutional crisis — have become more plausible than ever before. Assuming we avoid total catastrophe, America is poised to make a speedy recovery from its ill-advised experiment with kakistocracy. But there are (at least) four reasons why that assumption has never been less safe:

1) The “adults” in the West Wing have never had less influence over the president.

2) Trump’s path to a war with North Korea has never been easier to envision.

3) Trump has never had a stronger incentive to undermine rule of law in the United States.

4) It’s never been clearer that Congressional Republicans are unwilling to act as a check on Trump’s worst impulses.

... This all illustrates the enormous stakes of November’s elections. A Democratic House would have the power to subject the Trump administration to vigorous oversight, and, thus, serve as the kind of check on Executive corruption that our constitutional framework intended for Congress to be. By contrast, the survival of the GOP’s majority could embolden Trump to indulge his most destructive and authoritarian instincts more wantonly. As of this writing, Democrats lead the 2018 generic ballot by 9.5 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s polls of polls; by some estimates, Team Blue will need to win the popular vote by at least 8 percent to overcome Republican gerrymandering and secure a House majority.

All of which is to say: For progressives, there’s rarely been more cause to hope for the best from this presidency; nor more reason to prepare for the worst.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:51 AM on March 21, 2018 [56 favorites]


Jeff Flake just floated impeachment on Twitter

so Flake tweeted
We are begging the president not to fire the special counsel. Don't create a constitutional crisis. Congress cannot preempt such a firing. Our only constitutional remedy is after the fact, through impeachment. No one wants that outcome. Mr. President, please don't go there.
It seems like he's trying to make a strong statement in support of the investigation.

But if i'm Donald trump, i might read "Our only constitutional remedy is after the fact, through impeachment," as " we can't stop you, because the only remedy is impeachment, and you know as well as I do that a resolution of impeachment will never make it through the House".
posted by murphy slaw at 7:23 AM on March 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


Another twitter thread on Cambridge Analytica and the Trump data op.
9/Jan 2016: According to an internal memo from Matt Braynard, the campaign was focused on putting "100% of our organizational effort into enfranchising conventionally LOW PROPENSITY VOTERS that support our candidate." ...

18/June 21, 2016: Week of Trump & CA "official" 1st meeting. An exposed voter list database was uncovered: 154 million records and it "was exposed because of a misconfiguration in a CouchDB installation"
...
PS - If the theory pans out & Trump campaign (w/CA) used Obama data models for the purpose of VOTER SUPPRESSION...That "Defeat Crooked Hillary" content Alexander Nix mentioned to the undercover Channel4 reporters? Perfect fit.
Trump tests messaging with CA prior to 2015. Trump then hires L2, founded by former Obama staffers, and purchases a ton of data gathered by 2008 Obama...data which is later "accidentally" exposed and accessed by addresses tracing to Serbia. Data that would be later be used by CA (and Russia) to target those "low propensity" voters for Obama->Trump messaging, and voter suppression messaging.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:28 AM on March 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


Jeff Flake just floated impeachment on Twitter

I'll be impressed if a Republican Senator stands up and says something like "if Trump fires Mueller, I will join in a vote to remove him from office." Not simply saying that the process might happen (after the next Congress begins, presumably), and knowing that Senate Republicans will vote in lockstep to enable, not check, this president's abuse of power. And not a moment before.

Nixon resigned when he realized that Senate Republicans would no longer cover for him. How long will they continue to cover for Trump?
posted by Gelatin at 7:31 AM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


Politico notes that Breitbart has lost about half its readership in five months. No single big reason, lots of good ones listed for the major mojoectomy.
posted by Devonian at 7:35 AM on March 21, 2018 [29 favorites]


a scary thing about that Breitbart article is the idea that its influence has declined because, in effect, Bannon isn't in the white house putting Breitbart articles on the president's desk anymore, and he's getting all of his opinions from Fox News.

The idea that the president of the united states is driven by news commentary rather than shaping it is chilling. One of those terrifying things going on in the background that I constantly forget because of the horrifying things going on in the foreground.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:52 AM on March 21, 2018 [37 favorites]


I'm a little surprised Trump isn't taking advantage of the Nor'Easter 2018 #4 to pull some shady shit, thinking that a lot of people are too oppressed by the weather to organize.
posted by angrycat at 7:59 AM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Gelatin Nixon resigned when he realized that Senate Republicans would no longer cover for him. How long will they continue to cover for Trump?j

I'm very close to 100% certain that the answer for that is "until Jan 20, 2021 assuming Trump loses the 2020 elections".

I do not think the Congressional Republicans are psychologically and emotionally capable of seeing a second Republican President forced out of office for blatant criminality. They doubtless cringe at Trump's antics, maybe feel concern at his Russian ties and subservience, and certainly worry about how his Presidency will impact their own re-election chances.

But I don't think they'd vote to impeach him even in the most extreme circumstances.

Note that the Republican Party is still, after almost 44 years, resentful and hurt over Nixon's forced resignation. The decades long project to rehabilitate Nixon has not ended with Nixon's death, and in some ways it has intensified.

That feeling of bitter resentment and psychological hurt over Nixon is more important than any actual harm Trump may do to the Republicans. Having to oust two Republican Presidents in less than 50 years is simply not something most Congressional Republicans are capable of doing. They have never forgiven the universe for making them oust Nixon, and never gotten over it.

I think that most Congressional Republicans would rather lose their seats due to Trump's crimes and clownery than vote to remove Trump from office.

I'm sure they'll rationalize the decision to protect Trump to the bitter end in all manner of ways, I'm sure they'd deny strenuously that Nixon has anything to do with their position, but I'm also sure that I'm right and that Nixon is key.

There is no surely this moment, there is no act Trump can take that will make them stop protecting him. We only get rid of Trump by voting him out in 2020, there is no other path the Congressional Republicans will consider.
posted by sotonohito at 8:07 AM on March 21, 2018 [31 favorites]


And this time, Congressional Republicans are directly implicated themselves. Watergate did not involve the legislative branch at all. This time, Ryan knew. McConnell knew. They covered it up as it was happening. A full accounting of Trump's criminality would reveal that the entire party was at best criminally complicit in aiding and abetting, and in at least come cases active participants in the treasonous conspiracy.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:14 AM on March 21, 2018 [58 favorites]


Nixon was over 40 years ago. I think we’re more likely to see Republicans switching allegiance to a third Conservative Party than we are to see Republicans fall on their swords for psychological wounds inflicted on their predecessors.

After a midterm bloodbath, anyway. None of these people believe in anything enough to choose some abstracted resentment over survival.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:19 AM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


is anyone keeping count of how often "Trump" and "furious" has appeared in headlines in the last month?

CNN: Trump furious over leak of warning to not congratulate Putin
President Donald Trump was infuriated after it quickly leaked that he had been directly instructed by his national security advisers in briefing materials not to congratulate Russian President Vladimir Putin on his recent election victory during their call Tuesday morning, a source familiar with the President's thinking said.

Trump was fuming Tuesday night, asking his allies and outside advisers who they thought had leaked the information, noting that only a small group of staffers have access to those materials and would have known what guidance was included for the Putin call, the source said.

According to the source, the incident resurfaces his long-held belief there are individuals inside his administration -- especially in the national security realm -- who are actively working to undermine him.
it's small consolation that trump hates his job and it's making him miserable
posted by murphy slaw at 8:20 AM on March 21, 2018 [92 favorites]


There is no surely this moment, there is no act Trump can take that will make them stop protecting him. We only get rid of Trump by voting him out in 2020, there is no other path the Congressional Republicans will consider.

I still feel it all depends on what Trump and his closest advisers and family members are charged with, and the public reaction to those charges. Not only could this change the political calculus for the small number of Republican politicians required to impeach and convict Trump, it might also make them fear personal legal repercussions for being part of a conspiracy to place the President of the United States outside the rule of law. Just as Trump chose to commit felony obstruction of justice, so too would Congressional Republicans have to choose. Yes, most of them will enable Trump and placate the extremes of their base as long as possible, but I do not believe any Congressional Republican is willing to risk jail for him.

Except Rohrabacher. Probably Nunes too. They're probably more worried about poison-tipped umbrellas.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:24 AM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


noting that only a small group of staffers have access to those materials and would have known what guidance was included for the Putin call

A small group of staffers... and everyone who spends time in the copy room.

In a tightly-run administration, someone would put into place measures to avoid that kind of leak. The people who prepared the details of the report would also do the formatting and printing. In an administration based on croneyism, the people in charge of Important Stuff are more likely to hand off "lesser tasks" to random other staffers.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:26 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


no other path the Congressional Republicans will consider.

Yeah, the complicity of so many in Congress is what makes this so scary. Dana Rohrabacher, Devin Nunes, and now in my mind at least Dave Brat are all almost certainly compromised, not just craven. Paul Ryan, by swearing people to secrecy about the rumor that Trump and Rohrabacher were getting paid by Putin, and by declining to intervene to stop Nunes from rooting around in classified info when the FBI appealed to him for help, is clearly compromised as well. (Let me know if you want me to dig up links to any of those stories. I'm just feeling a little lazy at the moment.)

I can't tell if McConnell is compromised or just a coward and an opportunist and an asshole. But those four guys in the House, at least... I think something is really up, there, even though a year ago I would have thought this kind of conspiratorial thinking was a sign of some kind of impaired mental function.

And Nunes is chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and Ryan is Speaker of the House! They have a lot power.

That's why the good guys aren't guaranteed to win, here. Trump is an idiot, but he has a lot of people helping him. They could still win.
posted by OnceUponATime at 8:28 AM on March 21, 2018 [45 favorites]


Plus every random photographer Trump flashes the fucking thing to, let’s not forget his habit of doing that with documents.
posted by Artw at 8:29 AM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


The FSB could have overheard the memo being discussed on their listening device. This is not a joke, it's a legitimate concern
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:31 AM on March 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


Dave Brat is a full on Jesus-Nazi who was brought into politics by seig heiler Laura Ingraham so I would assume his full complicity in any and all Russian schemes, yes.
posted by Artw at 8:31 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


I think that most Congressional Republicans would rather lose their seats due to Trump's crimes and clownery than vote to remove Trump from office.

That seems a little extreme. Every Republican sitting in the legislature is currently choosing party over country, but only insofar as it enables a means to their desired end, which is the concentration of wealth in the hands of a small oligarchy, i.e. themselves. The GOP has been the party driving that train for the last 50-some years, so it makes sense for wealthy elites (and wannabes) to hitch their wagons to it. However, the moment it becomes political suicide to identify as a Republican, you're going to see a mass exodus to a third party, which will probably look mostly like the Tea Party. No one is willing to give up their ability to peddle influence and tax policy just to preserve an institution that can be reconstituted without the taint of Trumpism.

It's easy to predict what these guys are going to do. Just follow the money. They'll remain in lockstep with the GOP, right up until it becomes a financial liability to do so.
posted by Mayor West at 8:33 AM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


I can't tell if McConnell is compromised or just a coward and an opportunist and an asshole.

Probably all of the above but a traitor's a traitor and a fascist's a fascist. The important thing is that he never be forgiven or allowed to plead ignorance.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:33 AM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


I can't tell if McConnell is compromised or just a coward and an opportunist and an asshole.

¿Porque No Los Dos?
posted by Mayor West at 8:34 AM on March 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


As I understand it, in terms of just congressional procedures and federal laws, there are zero possible consequences to a representative who votes either for or against impeachment, right? Like, if the House had voted to impeach Obama literally for eating mustard, or were to vote against impeaching Trump on the grounds that Trump can break all the damn crimes he wants, then regardless of conflict of interest, none of the representatives who cast such votes would somehow be liable for breaking a rule, whether procedural or legal. Yes?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:38 AM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


InTheYear2017 That is correct.

Impeachment is a 100% political process, it is not legal, it is not a court.

The only consequences they face are political. Either at the ballot box or, if they go against their party, in the form of party displeasure.
posted by sotonohito at 8:40 AM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


a means to their desired end, which is the concentration of wealth in the hands of a small oligarchy, i.e. themselves. The GOP has been the party driving that train for the last 50-some years

The wealthy opposed FDR's programs to halt the Great Depression and threw their influence against those efforts, using means ranging from having Republicans in Congress persuade FDR to prematurely impose austerity -- which, of course, promptly tanked the economy again -- to contemplating a military coup. Republicans have been the party of the rich in opposition to the average American for going on a century now.
posted by Gelatin at 8:41 AM on March 21, 2018 [38 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump: “Special Council is told to find crimes, whether a crime exists or not. I was opposed to the selection of Mueller to be Special Council. I am still opposed to it. I think President Trump was right when he said there never should have been a Special Council appointed because.....
...there was no probable cause for believing that there was any crime, collusion or otherwise, or obstruction of justice!” So stated by Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz.


When a formerly-respected law professor says that police should not have investigated felonies and should not have successfully obtained multiple guilty pleas, he is not being sincere. Nor is he being contrarian. He is being controlled by Russia.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:43 AM on March 21, 2018 [44 favorites]


Yeah, the complicity of so many in Congress is what makes this so scary. Dana Rohrabacher, Devin Nunes, and now in my mind at least Dave Brat are all almost certainly compromised, not just craven. Paul Ryan, by swearing people to secrecy about the rumor that Trump and Rohrabacher were getting paid by Putin, and by declining to intervene to stop Nunes from rooting around in classified info when the FBI appealed to him for help, is clearly compromised as well. (Let me know if you want me to dig up links to any of those stories. I'm just feeling a little lazy at the moment.)

OnceUponATime, if it's not inconvenient, I'd be grateful if you would dig up the links, thanks.
posted by holborne at 8:44 AM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


CNN: Trump furious over leak of warning to not congratulate Putin

Carol Leonnig, the Washington Post nat sec journalist who broke "DO NOT CONGRATULATE"-gate, went on Maddow last night to provide some behind-the-scenes details of why this story got out: "After the president's call with Vladimir Putin there was quite a kerfuffle in the White House about what had just gone down, a sort of OMG moment of 'What are we going to say about this call? Are we going to say that the President congratulated Putin?' Well, the Russians kind of took that choice of out the hands of the White House by announcing that Trump had congratulated their leader. But there was quite a… um… a burst of activity trying to figure out what to do, so this became farily widely known pretty quickly."

This CNN piece went on to describe how the leak "contributes to the ongoing atmosphere of paranoia in the West Wing, [which] irked White House aides as well. Though the reaction has been described as 'rattled,' a White House official said it is more like anger and disappointment." In addition, "White House chief of staff John Kelly also is furious that a confidential presidential briefing became public knowledge, a White House official said, and intends to address the matter Wednesday as aides try to figure out who disclosed the warning." So, if H. R. finally gets the axe by Friday, we'll know who took the blame for this.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:49 AM on March 21, 2018 [45 favorites]


When a formerly-respected law professor says that police should not have investigated felonies and should not have successfully obtained multiple guilty pleas, he is not being sincere. Nor is he being contrarian.

Yeah. Even if Mueller doesn't bring a single case to trial, the number of crimes for which he's obtained guilty pleas suggests that there are not only crimes, but a pattern of criminal behavior that suggests racketeering. The evidence in the public domain right now suggests that the Trump Campaign, to say nothing of the Trump Organization, was a criminal enterprise.
posted by Gelatin at 8:52 AM on March 21, 2018 [44 favorites]


i think we have to be careful about saying that elements of the right are "controlled by russia" when the simpler hypothesis is that their interests are currently aligned with Russia.

Putin does not have infinite intelligence resources. The right is in bed with Russia because they've given up on the democratic process and the behavior you see when someone is exerting raw power to preserve raw power often looks the same as the actions of a Russian asset.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:52 AM on March 21, 2018 [48 favorites]




“realDonaldTrump: “Special Council is told to find crimes, whether a crime exists or not. I was opposed to the selection of Mueller to be Special Council.”

Who is Trump actually quoting? I’m fairly sure realAllanDershowitz, for
all his faults, knows the difference between “council” and “counsel.”
posted by Rumple at 8:53 AM on March 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


trump is transcribing from Fox and Friends and he can't spell
posted by murphy slaw at 8:55 AM on March 21, 2018 [53 favorites]


The first version of the tweet - because Trump already fixed this tweet once and still missed Council - spelled "whether a crime" with "wether."
posted by chris24 at 8:58 AM on March 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


trump is transcribing from Fox and Friends and he can't spell

ok that makes perfect sense kill me now
posted by Rumple at 9:00 AM on March 21, 2018 [36 favorites]


I was opposed to the selection of Mueller to be Special Council.”

That said, if they want to put together a Council to choose a Fellowship to throw Trump into a volcano, I'm down with that.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:08 AM on March 21, 2018 [38 favorites]


"certain elements of the right"? My understanding of Dershowitz is that he's always been left-leaning.
posted by hanov3r at 9:09 AM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


My understanding of Dershowitz is that he's always been left-leaning.

He became an advocate for torture after 9/11, and probably is in the population of folks who generally went insane at that time
posted by thelonius at 9:11 AM on March 21, 2018 [55 favorites]


Yeah, 9/11 broke Dershowitz.
posted by notyou at 9:13 AM on March 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


murphy slaw: i think we have to be careful about saying that elements of the right are "controlled by russia" when the simpler hypothesis is that their interests are currently aligned with Russia.

Yes, the Ryan/McCarthy audio (which was released the same day Mueller was appointed, good lord) both damns the House Republicans significantly... and possibly makes them less culpable than they would be in the worst-case scenario, i.e full compromise by Putin going back multiple years. In the transcript, they discuss the Trump/Putin/Rohrabacher connections as new information, and they seem to assume the USA can/should combat Russian interference, at least when it happens in other countries. That tape was more like the moment they all became complicit (unless its very release is an act of incredible deception and they're just pretending they considered Putin a bad guy behind closed doors, which is definitely possible in this timeline). It's when bewilderment morphed into conspiracy.

To be clear, I do think Trump himself and a number of others around him are controlled by Russia, in the sense of getting actual marching orders. Too many Trump actions are explained solely by that. I just think Ryan is more in the category of weasel than puppet (I could be wrong).
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:14 AM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


I can't tell if McConnell is compromised or just a coward and an opportunist and an asshole.

Probably all of the above but a traitor's a traitor and a fascist's a fascist. The important thing is that he never be forgiven or allowed to plead ignorance.


“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be.” -KV
posted by notsnot at 9:15 AM on March 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


Whatever his original leanings, Dershowitz has been a Fox Guest Stooge for years now. And for months he's been saying and doing anything any he can to entice Trump to either hire him to his legal team, or hey, let's dream high, nominate him for the Supreme Court.
posted by chris24 at 9:15 AM on March 21, 2018 [21 favorites]


So, if H. R. finally gets the axe by Friday, we'll know who took the blame for this.

McMaster is the only guy I have sympathy for in this whole shitshow. Because he's still active duty military and doesn't really have a choice to be there. I bet every day is a new living hell for the guy.
posted by Justinian at 9:18 AM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


What was H.R. McMaster's oath?

I, _____, having been appointed an officer in the Army of the United States, as indicated above in the grade of _____ do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic, that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservations or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office upon which I am about to enter; So help me God."

Seems like there's some wiggle room when the President is to the Constitution an enemy, domestic.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:26 AM on March 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


...there was no probable cause for believing that there was any crime, collusion or otherwise, or obstruction of justice!” So stated by Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz.

I wonder if that Obama guy ever took a course with Dershowitz?
posted by srboisvert at 9:32 AM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


"certain elements of the right"? My understanding of Dershowitz is that he's always been left-leaning.

The far-right warmonger guy? Where do people get this idea?
posted by Artw at 9:32 AM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


McMaster is the only guy I have sympathy for in this whole shitshow. Because he's still active duty military and doesn't really have a choice to be there. I bet every day is a new living hell for the guy.

I'm skeptical about this. Surely he can resign? I'm having trouble finding details on list, but at the very least he can submit a request for resignation of his commision (are generals commissioned officers?).
posted by dis_integration at 9:33 AM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


OnceUponATime, if it's not inconvenient, I'd be grateful if you would dig up the links, thanks.


Okay yeah, I should.

Dana Rohrabacher:
Putin’s favorite congressman: "Dana Rohrabacher’s pro-Russia views made him an outcast. But in Trump’s Washington, he could fit right in."

Erik Prince to host fundraiser for pro-Russia lawmaker amid Seychelles scrutiny: report

What we know about Yuri Chaika — the Kremlin's 'master of kompromat' who's behind the notorious Trump Tower meeting "Chaika's foray into American politics appears to have begun in earnest last April, when Rep. Dana Rohrabacher visited Moscow and obtained a memo from Chaika's office criticizing the Magnitsky Act."

House majority leader to colleagues in 2016: ‘I think Putin pays’ Trump
“There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” McCarthy (R-Calif.) said, according to a recording of the June 15, 2016, exchange, which was listened to and verified by The Washington Post. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is a Californian Republican known in Congress as a fervent defender of Putin and Russia.

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) immediately interjected, stopping the conversation from further exploring McCarthy’s assertion, and swore the Republicans present to secrecy.
Devin Nunes:
Lawmaker's 'peculiar midnight run' endangers Trump-Russia inquiry

White House officials played role in surfacing documents Nunes viewed


The Circumscribed Ethics Investigation Into Devin Nunes "The House Intelligence Committee chair claimed he’d been completely cleared, but the panel probing his conduct never gained access to the intelligence he was accused of divulging."

FBI condemns Nunes memo for 'omissions,' escalating feud

House Intelligence Committee Minority Report - "Below is a partial list of key witnesses that the [Nunes-led House Intelligence] Committee has yet to contact or interview, as well as document production requests that the Committee has yet to make"

Ryan backed Nunes in spat with Justice Dept. over Russia documents, sources say
While Ryan had already been in contact with Rosenstein for months about the dispute over documents, Rosenstein and Wray wanted to make one last effort to persuade him to support their position. The documents in dispute were mostly FBI investigative documents that are considered law enforcement sensitive and are rarely released or shared outside the bureau.
During the meeting, however, it became clear that Ryan wasn't moved and the officials wouldn't have his support if they proceeded to resist Nunes' remaining highly classified requests, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the meeting.
Dave Brat:
My reasons for thinking he is compromised have to do with the fact that he was elected with the help of Steve Bannon, at a time in 2014 when Bannon was leading Cambridge Analytica, and when the Internet Research Agency began to be active in American politics.

My comment above includes quotes showing Bannon's involvement in Brat's campaign, from a report aired on This American Life.

Meanwhile, Bannon oversaw Cambridge Analytica’s collection of Facebook data, according to former employee
Conservative strategist Stephen K. Bannon oversaw Cambridge Analytica’s early efforts to collect troves of Facebook data as part of an ambitious program to build detailed profiles of millions of American voters, a former employee of the data-science firm said Tuesday.

The 2014 effort was part of a high-tech form of voter persuasion touted by the company, which under Bannon identified and tested the power of anti-establishment messages that later would emerge as central themes in President Trump’s campaign speeches, according to Chris Wylie, who left the company at the end of that year.
And from Mueller's indictment of the Internet Research Agency...
By in or around April 2014, the ORGANIZATION formed a department that went by various names but was at times referred to as the “translator project.” This project focused on the U.S. population and conducted operations on social media platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. By approximately July 2016, more than eighty ORGANIZATION employees were assigned to the translator project.
Emphasis mine. It's possible the timing and the overlaps in messaging, methods, and personnel could be a coincidence, but that's very hard for me to believe.
Paul Ryan:
House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) immediately interjected, stopping the conversation from further exploring McCarthy’s assertion, and swore the Republicans present to secrecy.

During the meeting, however, it became clear that Ryan wasn't moved and the officials wouldn't have his support if they proceeded to resist Nunes' remaining highly classified requests, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the meeting.

Dems try to force vote on independent Russia probe “Speaker Ryan has shown he has zero — zero — zero — appetite for any investigation of President Trump,” Cummings said. “Instead, he appears to have minimized any oversight whatsoever.”
I'm not saying all these guys have been compromised at the same time, in the same way, or to the same degree. But I think they are all aware that Russia is interfering in our political system, and they are all knowingly helping Russia do it, at this point. Whether it's because they literally put party before country, or because of money or kompromat or a desire for power, I don't know. But I think they're doing it, and they're doing it consciously.
posted by OnceUponATime at 9:33 AM on March 21, 2018 [228 favorites]


Damn, OUAT. When you put together some links, you are not joking around.
posted by Sophie1 at 9:36 AM on March 21, 2018 [43 favorites]


Damn, OUAT. When you put together some links, you are not joking around.

And note that all this information, damning as it is, is just what's in the public domain. Doubtless the intelligence community, individual members of Congress -- including but not limited to Paul Ryan -- and other Russian assets in the Trump Administration have even more extensive information on how compromised the Republicans -- excuse me, these Republicans -- are.
posted by Gelatin at 9:39 AM on March 21, 2018 [16 favorites]


Damn, OUAT. When you put together some links, you are not joking around.

You've seen her webpage, right?
posted by ArgentCorvid at 9:41 AM on March 21, 2018 [71 favorites]


Talking Points Memo:
The top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee says whistleblowers have detailed a plot by the Trump administration to oust the CEO of the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) and replace him with someone favored by the White House.

Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) warned in a letter to the BBG, obtained by TPM, that that candidate, André Mendes, then plans to dismiss the existing Board of Governors, according to the whistleblowers.

In a statement to TPM, Engel called the alleged plot “our worst nightmare coming true.”

“This action would violate current law and represent what these whistleblowers have described as ‘a coup at the BBG,’ presumably with the aim of pushing the BBG’s journalism toward a viewpoint favorable of (sic) the Trump Administration,” Engel wrote to the BBG. “I view these claims as credible and this scenario as outrageous and unacceptable.”

posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:45 AM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


I should've included this link on Rohrabacher too. Lot's of details besides the one I'll pull quote...

He’s a Member of Congress. The Kremlin Likes Him So Much It Gave Him a Code Name.
Then earlier this year, this time on Capitol Hill, Mr. Rohrabacher dined with Alexander Torshin, the deputy governor of the Russian central bank who has been linked both to Russia’s security services and organized crime. During Mr. Trump’s presidential campaign, Mr. Torshin tried to set up a “backdoor” meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin, according to an email that has been turned over to Senate investigators.
posted by OnceUponATime at 9:46 AM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


McMaster is the only guy I have sympathy for in this whole shitshow. Because he's still active duty military and doesn't really have a choice to be there. I bet every day is a new living hell for the guy.

McMaster wrote a book about the responsibility of military leaders to speak truth to power, focusing on the Vietnam War.

Maybe he's walking a tightrope because he sees the massive dangers going on and he knows he may be replaced by someone without his sense of responsibility. Maybe he's not. I don't know. All I know is I have seen that guy go on camera and blow smoke up Trump's ass, and yet he's a dude who wrote a book on speaking truth to power.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:58 AM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


Gideon Resnik, Daily Beast: Joe Biden: I’d Have ‘Beat the Hell’ Out of Trump in High School for Disrespecting Women
Appearing Tuesday evening at a University of Miami event, the former vice president declared that a younger version of himself would have had no problem resorting to fisticuffs to teach Trump a lesson about dignity.

“When a guy who ended up becoming our national leader said, ‘I can grab a woman anywhere and she likes it,’” Biden said during the anti-sexual assault It's On Us event. “They asked me if I’d like to debate this gentleman, and I said no. I said, ‘If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.’”
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:04 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


Joe Biden: I’d Have ‘Beat the Hell’ Out of Trump in High School for Disrespecting Women

Yeah because what we really need is an honor culture driven by violent young men. Sit down, Joe.
posted by jedicus at 10:09 AM on March 21, 2018 [117 favorites]


Woulda shoulda coulda, Joe.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:09 AM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Well we're not in high school so act like it, Biden. Sheesh.
posted by agregoli at 10:09 AM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Hooooooo boy, Biden.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:09 AM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Joe Biden: I’d Have ‘Beat the Hell’ Out of Trump in High School for Disrespecting Women

- Joe Biden gave us Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, known for being a sexual harasser, and famously disrespected Anita Hill in the process
- Joe Biden is 75 years old
- some guy beating up some other guy for disrespecting women does not make me feel more respected, it makes me feel afraid
- I guess "when they go low, we go high" is for the Obamas only
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:11 AM on March 21, 2018 [55 favorites]


Mod note: Stepping in to head off more one-liner reactions - Biden said a bad dumb thing, consider the point made, and let's not derail onto everybody needing to say so individually.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 10:14 AM on March 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


(Can we please nix all links that are peripheral "someone said a dumb thing" to preempt our own outrage?)
posted by agregoli at 10:19 AM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


Seems like there's some wiggle room when the President is to the Constitution an enemy, domestic.

I believe he is, and everyone has a moral duty to oppose him - but how best to do that is sadly not clear. Do people stay and resist from within? Leave and make noise? I don’t even know the right answer myself.
posted by corb at 10:32 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


OnceUponATime: “I'm not saying all these guys have been compromised at the same time, in the same way, or to the same degree. But I think they are all aware that Russia is interfering in our political system, and they are all knowingly helping Russia do it, at this point. Whether it's because they literally put party before country, or because of money or kompromat or a desire for power, I don't know. But I think they're doing it, and they're doing it consciously.”
It's a hard pill to swallow to realize that goddamned John Schindler has been right all along about Putin waging "special war" on the Atlantic alliance. It's almost worse than realizing that a state of war currently exists between Russia and the United States, really.
posted by ob1quixote at 10:43 AM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


I’m not giving some random dude credit for noticing something that’s been blatantly obvious for a decade or longer.
posted by Artw at 10:45 AM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Fritz will:

...

Comply with all outstanding Freedom of Information Act requests and make responding to FOIA requests a priority. He will end the current administration’s pattern of resisting FOIA, and will cooperate with any outstanding court orders in regard to its operations, staffing and policy implementation.


It's kind of sad how merely obeying the law in chicago and cook county can seem progressive.
posted by srboisvert at 10:48 AM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


This sums up the Republican Position well: A GOP senator’s remarkable admission about Trump and Mueller
“The president is, as you know — you’ve seen his numbers among the Republican base — it’s very strong. It’s more than strong, it’s tribal in nature,” said Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., who decided to retire when his second term concludes at year’s end, after periodically sparring with Trump.*

“People who tell me, who are out on trail, say, look, people don’t ask about issues anymore. They don’t care about issues. They want to know if you’re with Trump or not,” Corker added.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:51 AM on March 21, 2018 [52 favorites]


Nixon was over 40 years ago. I think we’re more likely to see Republicans switching allegiance to a third Conservative Party than we are to see Republicans fall on their swords for psychological wounds inflicted on their predecessors.

A lot of the guys in the Senate are over 40, 50, 60 years old. It's living memory. And of course Nixon keeps coming up as a comparison to Trump, so that identity piece keeps getting activated. Even Paul Ryan, 48, came of age in a time when those psychological wounds were fresh and new. It's not as implausible as all that.

That said, I think its not necessary, and even Russian corruption isn't necessary to explain things (although that might also be true). The normal political motivations are sufficient. Some Republicans honestly believe this is the best path for the country, some are opportunists, some are motivated by hatred, and some are simply stupid and in over their head. Don't forget that our opponents are normal people.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 10:59 AM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


According to the Guardian, CA's parent SCL were trusted with secret documents by the Dept of Defence
The chair of the Commons home affairs committee has called for a full investigation into the activities of Cambridge Analytica after it emerged that its parent company was granted provisional “List X” status by the Ministry of Defence until 2013, granting it access to secret documents. ...

The SCL project was carried out by the MoD’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), which is focused on maximising “the impact of science and technology for the defence and security of the UK”.

Target audience analysis (TAA) is a controversial approach to government communications that evolved during the battle for hearts and minds in Afghanistan.

According to an assessment of the method by the Cdr Steve Tatham of the Royal Navy in 2015, it allows governments to “diagnose the exact groupings that exist within target populations”, leading to a ranking that “depends upon the degree of influence they may have in either promoting or mitigating constructive behaviour”.

It then uses “psycho-social research parameters” in order to “determine how best to change that group’s behaviour”.

According to Statham, the data “builds up a detailed understanding of current behaviour, values, attitudes, beliefs and norms, and examines everything from whether a group feels in control of its life to who they respect and what radio stations they listen to.” He added: “TAA can be undertaken covertly.”

posted by stonepharisee at 11:20 AM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


Rainbo Vagrant: "A lot of the guys in the Senate are over 40, 50, 60 years old. "

The youngest Senator is 40, so yeah.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:23 AM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


When even Gohmert's Mueller-firing fantasies are ruined by on-the-table GOP impeachment votes...

“I think Mueller should be fired,” Gohmert said during the monthly “Conversation with Conservatives” meeting on Wednesday. “He should never have been appointed and he should never have accepted. He should be fired.”

Gohmert clarified that he thinks the president should not actually fire Mueller, because Republicans in Congress might impeach him if he did so.

posted by Rust Moranis at 11:24 AM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


Do people stay and resist from within? Leave and make noise? I don’t even know the right answer myself.

It doesn't seem like staying and resisting from within is working in this case. And it is probably causing damage to those who stay. And I guess the less people there to do the evil work, then...?
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:26 AM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


Louie Gohmert, stupidest man in congress, advocates for the firing of the special counsel, while clarifying that the event he is advocating for should not happen.

This is the kind of clear thinking we've come to expect from the House Freedom Caucus.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:32 AM on March 21, 2018 [60 favorites]


According to the Guardian, CA's parent SCL were trusted with secret documents by the Dept of Defence

Ministry! Ministry of Defence. Not Department of Defense. Although, that's pretty fukin bad, too. Plus, maybe that's just what that Guardian article says; maybe that harrowing bit of news about the USDOD has merely not made it to the Guardian, yet.

More and more I'm thinking that since forever we've been acting like a clueless noobie loudmouthed gear-rich hiker in grizzly country. We got bit by a wasp in 2001 and have been spending the time since trying not to get bit by anymore wasps ever again by trying to kill every wasp and by running around and screaming and generally wrecking the environs. Meanwhile we seem to have failed to notice that an enormous, tooth-rich grizzly bear has been stalking us all day and is now within clawing distance. I mean, true: wasps: very bad. But grizzly bears. Worse.
posted by Don Pepino at 11:32 AM on March 21, 2018 [36 favorites]


also the grizzly bear is sending us Facebook posts telling us that Jesus wants us to burn our survival gear and we're like, "yeah, let's stick it to Crooked REI!"
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:37 AM on March 21, 2018 [42 favorites]


Louie Gohmert, stupidest man in congress, advocates for the firing of the special counsel, while clarifying that the event he is advocating for should not happen.

Gohmert is saying that Trump shouldn't fire Mueller, but Mueller should be fired, presumably through some mysterious act of God. We've gone past Stupid Reagan and Stupid Nixon, and are now into Stupid Henry II.
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:37 AM on March 21, 2018 [60 favorites]


And note that all this information, damning as it is, is just what's in the public domain. Doubtless the intelligence community, individual members of Congress . . . have even more extensive information on how compromised the Republicans -- excuse me, _these_ Republicans -- are.

Agreed, what we're seeing now is literally the lowest levels of detail. By definition, if it's on the evening news it's not high-level information, at least anymore. Congress had this information LONG AGO.

All these people know. Shit, we started putting it together immediately. Why are you praising McConnell, Chuck?! Punch him in the freakin' waddle, man! How much longer do we have to wait?
posted by petebest at 11:45 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


Rep Steve Cohen [D-TN-09] has filed a discharge petition to force a vote on a Mueller protection bill. More background.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:45 AM on March 21, 2018 [34 favorites]




Nearly 70 percent say Trump is a bad role model for children: poll

Respondents to the Quinnipiac University poll said by 67 percent to 29 percent that Trump is not a good role model for kids, a position held consistently across age groups ranging from 18 to 65 and up.

Over half of voters, 55 percent, say the president does not have a sense of decency, while 42 percent said he does.


Full poll results here.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:50 AM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


What are the odds the GOP Congress impeaches and removes Trump and then Pence immediately fires Mueller, declaring that with Trump gone the investigation is no longer necessary, invoking the example of Gerald Ford?
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:58 AM on March 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


Representatives signing the bipartisan Special Counsel Integrity Act H.R. 4669 Discharge Petition will appear here, presumably with a delay. If you have a representative, get them on the list!
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:58 AM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


That discharge petition is a stunt so don't get your hopes up. Not saying that stunts aren't sometimes worth it, just that this isn't a serious move aimed at protecting Mueller.
posted by Justinian at 12:01 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Via WaPo's Daily 202 (The Daily 202: Illinois primary results show angry bases in both parties demanding more purity)
A Pew Research Study, which coincidentally was published yesterday, highlights the degree to which the two parties continue a seismic, long-term sorting out: “The share of Democratic voters describing their political views as liberal has increased steadily since 2000. Currently, nearly half of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters (46%) say they are liberal, while 37% identify as moderates and 15% say they are conservatives. A decade ago, more Democrats described their views as moderate (44%) than liberal (28%), while 23% said they were conservative. … Conservatives have long constituted the majority among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans (68%) characterize their views as conservative, while 27% are moderates and 4% are liberals. While there has been little change in Republicans’ self-described ideology in recent years, the share calling themselves conservatives rose from 58% in 2000 to 65% eight years later.”

College graduates, women, minorities and millennials continue moving toward Democrats while Republicans consolidate gains among less-educated whites, especially men. Pew, with a survey sample of 10,000 Americans, found that 56 percent of women identify with the Democrats, up four points from 2015; 58 percent of college graduates affiliate with Democrats, the highest number recorded since 1992; and 59 percent of millennials lean Democratic, compared with 48 percent of both Generation Xers and baby boomers.
Highlighting by the Washington Post.
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:07 PM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


invoking the example of Gerald Ford?


Ford was in no way implicated in Nixon’s mess. Pence is just as contaminated by all of this as Trump, even if he manages to stay out of the news. People would be in the streets.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 12:08 PM on March 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


That discharge petition is a stunt so don't get your hopes up. Not saying that stunts aren't sometimes worth it, just that this isn't a serious move aimed at protecting Mueller.

Why do you say that? Not every bill unlikely to pass is a "stunt." Sen. Wayne Morse was opposing the Vietnam War long before anyone else in Congress was willing to go along, but it had an important impact and -- just as importantly -- was the right thing to do.

Also, Congresscritters are sheep. Peer group pressure among them, and echoing through public opinion, has real effects. Especially on a bill such as this where no entrenched business lobbyists have a direct stake in the bill.
posted by msalt at 12:13 PM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
.....They [Russia] can help solve problems with North Korea, Syria, Ukraine, ISIS, Iran and even the coming Arms Race. Bush tried to get along, but didn’t have the “smarts.” Obama and Clinton tried, but didn’t have the energy or chemistry (remember RESET). PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!
Emphasis mine. God that's fucking terrifying to read the US President write.
posted by Talez at 12:15 PM on March 21, 2018 [73 favorites]


Why do you say that?

Not OP but because any Republican who signs that petition is going to get their ass primaried.
posted by Talez at 12:16 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Right, this is something unlikely to pass which is being put forward to make a point. Whether that constitutes a "stunt" is semantics I suppose. The point I was making is that people shouldn't expect this to lead to protection of Mueller not that it was somehow a bad thing which maybe could be read into the word "stunt".
posted by Justinian at 12:17 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


It's a useful stunt that will hang Trump around Republicans' necks come the general.
posted by whuppy at 12:27 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


Have I mentioned the government is set to shut down in a couple days and we’re getting really darn close? Because Matt Fuller says Trump is kinda having problems with the omnibus now: Trump Having Second Thoughts About Spending Deal Ryan is reportedly being dispatched to the White House to try to fix it:
A senior GOP aide told HuffPost that the strongest argument Republicans have in convincing Trump is that he would draw 100 percent of the blame for a shutdown if he backed out of the omnibus deal now.

“It is no wonder why Tillerson called Trump what he called him,” the GOP source said, referring to reports that former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called the president a “moron.”
posted by zachlipton at 12:27 PM on March 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


I assure you Congressman Cohen is not pulling a "stunt". He is absolutely sincere in his efforts to impeach Trump, and the last time I spoke with him about it to express my support as a constituent, he seemed rather mystified that he was not receiving more support from his democratic colleagues. Cohen is showing leadership on this matter. That is not a stunt.
posted by vibrotronica at 12:27 PM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!

So we're actively being governed by Kane from Command and Conquer now?

That's troubling, to put it mildly.
posted by Archelaus at 12:31 PM on March 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


It's worth noting that the sponsor of the equivalent Senate legislation is Thom Tillis (R-NC), not known as a member of Antifa. If Republicans oppose this bill they should be forced to explain why.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


Well if the UK was looking for someone to back them up before Russia dumps a load of nerve agent in a pub in Hendon to get at some dissident Russian journalist they better cancel Brexit post haste.
posted by PenDevil at 12:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


"¿Porque No Los Dos?"

Just to clear this up since I'm seeing it more and more on MeFi... the correct structure would be ¿Por Qué No Los Dos?

Porque = because
Por qué = why

💚 This was your Spanish lesson for the week 💚
posted by Tarumba at 12:33 PM on March 21, 2018 [163 favorites]


Nate Silver making the point again today that despite what we're learning went on with Cambridge/Russia...the media's coverage of the Clinton emails "scandal" almost exclusively of all other issues was still far more influential in the election result. And they have not been held to account or changed their behavior AT ALL. The NYT is rolling in cash off their slaving coverage of the Trump campaign and now Trump White House.

We should care about all the collusion with Russia, but we have more power to affect change in the future by demanding better performance from the NYT specifically, and the media generally. Vote with your dollars.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:37 PM on March 21, 2018 [54 favorites]


well I believe the president when he tells us that there was NO COLLUSION with our greatest and must trusted ally with whom we will soon rule the world together

remember when conservatives' favorite movie was Red Dawn? anyway, we had a good run
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:37 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


Ford was in no way implicated in Nixon’s mess. Pence is just as contaminated by all of this as Trump, even if he manages to stay out of the news. People would be in the streets.

I hope history doesn't forget Pence the way it seems to have forgotten Spiro Agnew.

Paul Ryan is the Gerald Ford in this instance. And they're both dimwitted Midwestern jocks.
posted by elsietheeel at 12:37 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH!

I've always hated that phrase but it's not unusual for a Republican president to be saying that. Reagan used the phrase often and it's apparently been in the Republican party platform for years.
posted by octothorpe at 12:41 PM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]




They [Russia] can help solve problems with North Korea, Syria, Ukraine, ISIS, Iran and even the coming Arms Race.

I've suspected for some time that Trump's Super Secret Plan to defeat ISIS was nothing other than a formal alliance with Russia. His handlers managed to talk him into temporizing on the campaign trail and in the first year of his presidency, because they rightly judged the plan was 1) insane and 2) a blatant advertisement of his connivances with Putin, but those handlers are gone or neutralized. The control rods are out now, and Trump thinks it's a fine display of his power to spray his radioactively bad ideas all over the fucking nation.
posted by Iridic at 12:47 PM on March 21, 2018 [16 favorites]


I’m less concerned with the peace through strength stuff and more worried about the suggestion that Russia will solve problems with Ukraine. Because that sounds like he’s giving them an open invitation to annex the rest of it.
posted by zachlipton at 12:48 PM on March 21, 2018 [25 favorites]


I hope history doesn't forget Pence the way it seems to have forgotten Spiro Agnew.

If you haven't listened to Slow Burn, it's really, really worth doing for the uncanny parrallels to Watergate. Agnew was as big a troll and as big a party-first hack as Jon Coryn. Gerald Ford was Nixon's man in Congress even before appointed Vice President.

Ford was in no way implicated in Nixon’s mess.

Not directly, but listen to the second episode of Slow Burn for how he helped shut down the Wright Patman hearings in the early days of Watergate. Ford was a full participant in the coverup from the beginning, through the pardon.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:49 PM on March 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


I was thinking about how John Dean called the Watergate cover-up a cancer on the presidency. And then I thought of how cancers are immortalized cell lines. Which explains Roger Stone and the Nixon tattoo.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:50 PM on March 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


From Zuck:
In the next month, we will show everyone a tool at the top of your News Feed with the apps you've used and an easy way to revoke those apps' permissions to your data. We already have a tool to do this in your privacy settings, and now we will put this tool at the top of your News Feed to make sure everyone sees it.

A tool.

He made a tool.

Why am I in this timeline? I don't deserve this timeline! Please, Mister, there was some kind of mistake, I just know it! No, come back! You can't leave me here! Please, sir, for the love of god!
posted by eclectist at 12:50 PM on March 21, 2018 [32 favorites]


Paul Ryan is the Gerald Ford in this instance. And they're both dimwitted Midwestern jocks.

That comparison does a deep disservice to Ford, who served his country in WWII, graduated from Yale Law, and sat on the Warren Commission. Pardoning Nixon to get him out was not the right call, but that decision wasn’t an easy one.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:54 PM on March 21, 2018 [13 favorites]


A tool.

He made a tool.


As someone who has worked in user experience design for over a decade, I can assure you that if you make an opt-in tool for something fundamental and critical, 100% of users will find it and use it 100% of the time. /hamburger
posted by lord_wolf at 12:56 PM on March 21, 2018 [26 favorites]


Oh, and the idea that Watergate was so long ago it doesn't still have parallels and psychological impacts on the players today is sort of laughable given that Roger Stone is a key figure implicated in this...and he was doing Nixon dirty work at the time. Most of the Senate were College Republicans and Hill staffers in 1972. The Senate is fucking old. Watergate was a formative political experience for a lot of them.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:56 PM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


Guh. Like 2/3 of the response comments to Zuck's statement are "Thanks for making this right" Mary Sues.
posted by mochapickle at 12:56 PM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


In the next month, we will show everyone a tool at the top of your News Feed with the apps you've used and an easy way to revoke those apps' permissions to your data. We already have a tool to do this in your privacy settings, and now we will put this tool at the top of your News Feed to make sure everyone sees it.

FFS, I use these privacy settings all the time. All he's doing is taking a privacy-control setting that was buried and putting it up front. Which is something FB should be doing anyway. GOOD JOB ZUCKY
posted by Anonymous at 12:56 PM on March 21, 2018


Anyone who launched a Facebook knock-off today that would actually respect user privacy, ban the fucking Nazis, and arranged posts in chronological fucking order could make a bazillion dollars.

I can't believe nobody's doing it. I really can't.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:57 PM on March 21, 2018 [52 favorites]


I’m less concerned with the peace through strength stuff and more worried about the suggestion that Russia will solve problems with Ukraine. Because that sounds like he’s giving them an open invitation to annex the rest of it.

can't have problems with ukraine if it doesn't exist!

taps forehead
posted by murphy slaw at 12:58 PM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


From Zuckerberg's statement: The good news is that the most important actions to prevent this from happening again today we have already taken years ago.

What.

I mean. That statement was workshopped to death, probably. And yet.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:59 PM on March 21, 2018 [65 favorites]


could make a bazillion dollars

The thing is, the bazillion dollars only gets paid if they don’t respect user privacy, ban the fucking nazis, and arrange posts in chronological fucking order.
posted by stopgap at 12:59 PM on March 21, 2018 [17 favorites]


This was a breach of trust between Kogan, Cambridge Analytica and Facebook. But it was also a breach of trust between Facebook and the people who share their data with us and expect us to protect it. We need to fix that.

In this case, we already took the most important steps a few years ago in 2014 to prevent bad actors from accessing people's information in this way.


The fuck you did. And I don't see anything about you changing your business to stop being a giant surveillance system that's fun to use, which laid the foundation for everything you did wrong in 2016. Or anything about preventing your information security people from doing their jobs because money.

Honestly, this statement could have been generated by a bot that was trained on tech company non-answers to corporate scandals.
posted by middleclasstool at 1:00 PM on March 21, 2018 [51 favorites]


They [Russia] can help solve problems with ... the coming Arms Race.

I want to hear more about these problems with the coming Arms Race that Russia could help solve. Perhaps the coming Arms Race will not have enough Arms in it? They could help with that I suppose
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:01 PM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


Anyone who launched a Facebook knock-off today that would actually respect user privacy, ban the fucking Nazis, and arranged posts in chronological fucking order could make a bazillion dollars.

I can't believe nobody's doing it. I really can't.


A bazillion dollars from whom? Facebook is paid for by advertisers, not end users. Dreamwidth respects user privacy, bans vile accounts (I don't know that they have a Nazi presence), and arranges the readlist in chrono order - and it's not swimming in money.

(It's not a FB knockoff. There's no image/vid/audio hosting, and no partners offering games and other apps. But you don't get the partners without giving up user data, and you can't afford media hosting without a lot of money coming from somewhere.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:05 PM on March 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


Two plausible interpretations
  • Trump is starting an arms race so he can subsequently use Russia's help to end the arms race and win the Nobel Peace Prize.
  • Trump wants to start buying Russian missile technology.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:06 PM on March 21, 2018


I’m less concerned with the peace through strength stuff and more worried about the suggestion that Russia will solve problems with Ukraine. Because that sounds like he’s giving them an open invitation to annex the rest of it.

BTW Russia and Belarus are already both part of a... country or something called the Union State.
posted by XMLicious at 1:08 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


> Trump wants to start buying Russian missile technology.

To be fair, this will help bring more jobs to his political base.
posted by mosk at 1:09 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


That comparison does a deep disservice to Ford

You know what, you're right. President Ford was incredibly moderate, especially compared to today's GOP, and did many good things during his presidency. Paul Ryan hasn't done a single good thing in his life.

Although if you really want to be creeped out, here's a picture of President Ford, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney in the Oval Office in 1975. How long are the same old white men going to run this country?
posted by elsietheeel at 1:09 PM on March 21, 2018 [39 favorites]


man theres more than one tool in that statement
posted by localhuman at 1:09 PM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


That comparison does a deep disservice to Ford, who served his country in WWII, graduated from Yale Law, and sat on the Warren Commission.

The 'jock' part, too. Gerald Ford was voted MVP on a college football team that had two undefeated seasons and twice won national titles, and he turned down offers to play professional football from the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.

Paul Ryan does a workout plan sold via infomercial, and lies about his time in the one marathon he ran (he also lies about his weightlifting).

Stupid Watergate.
posted by box at 1:13 PM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


Welp looks like Sessions had additional motive: EXCLUSIVE: Fired FBI official authorized criminal probe of Sessions, sources say

I was wondering how long till Sessions was implicated, let's hope his name is one of the ones on Mueller's sealed indictments.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:14 PM on March 21, 2018 [104 favorites]


I was wondering how long till Sessions was implicated

Sessions not only lied under oath during his Senate confirmation hearing, but he also went out of his way to lie under oath during his Senate confirmation hearing, appending "oh by the way I never met with any Russians kthxbai" to the answer to another question.
posted by Gelatin at 1:19 PM on March 21, 2018 [38 favorites]


I was wondering how long till Sessions was implicated, let's hope his name is one of the ones on Mueller's sealed indictments.

If he is, I'll be watching to see if Xavier Becerra has a big grin on his face.

With this administration, in general, there are a LOT of well-placed people who will cheer to see them fall. You meet the same people on the way down as you do on the way up, as the old saying goes.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 1:21 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


I do wonder whether social media should be treated as, like, a natural monopoly best run as a public utility. But that runs into the scary scenario where the government has all your data directly (instead of indirectly by dealing with the companies), and decides what citizens ought to see.

Years back some NYU students started a thing called Diaspora, which is both an open software system and a social network (like how Wikipedia and Wikia use the open software MediaWiki, so anyone can start a similarly-structured wiki about their favorite monster truck anime, but people usually just use Wikia for that). It's decentralized in a way that's supposed to be good for users maintaining privacy and controlling their own data. Among drawbacks is that it's intrinsically somewhat difficult to ban awful stuff (specifically, at one point it was taken advantage of by ISIS).

I feel like we're re-encountering the fundamental problems and paradoxes of governance itself. Someone's going to just declare that we need a cyber-philosopher-king to run the web. Bleh.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:24 PM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


Yea, I meant implicated as in named in one of the investigations, not implicated in culpability. That's been public for a while now. I've been waiting to see his name on papers, because it's overdue.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:24 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


So this would be another FBI investigation that didn’t operate under the policy of continually informing the media and calling the target of the investigation extremely careless? It’s like that FBI policy only applies to Hillary Clinton or something.
posted by zachlipton at 1:24 PM on March 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


I was wondering how long till Sessions was implicated

He's a secondary target, Mueller is still deep-diving on the primary targets, the money launderers. When he stops getting more dirt on the money laundering, and hits bedrock, he'll tie this secondary stuff into the money laundering and wrap it in a pretty bow.
posted by mikelieman at 1:25 PM on March 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


When he stops getting more dirt on the money laundering, and hits bedrock, he'll tie this secondary stuff into the money laundering and wrap it in a pretty bow.

Not to mention conspiracy, obstruction of justice, racketeering, and some light treason.

Sometimes I dream a dream of the Republican Party and/or the Trump Organization running afoul of the RICO statute.
posted by Gelatin at 1:30 PM on March 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


I am also seeing the strategy of not immediately bringing Federal charges against Sessions (if/when illegalities are found), since his recusal from the Russian probe is what's holding the wolves at bay while Mueller finishes his investigation.
posted by mosk at 1:31 PM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


Per the ABC article the FBI's investigation into Sessions' "lack of candor" is over, so I wouldn't get your hopes up there.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:38 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Sometimes I dream a dream of the Republican Party and/or the Trump Organization running afoul of the RICO statute.

I'm pretty sure this has happened - my dreams involve them getting noticed by someone who's willing and able to prosecute.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:42 PM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


Earlier this week TV news here in New Zealand lead with the appointment of New Zealand-born Chris Liddell as Trump's Deputy Chief of Staff. Much of the item was a mixture of 'local boy makes good', and 'what does it mean for New Zealand?'. Liddell has been working with Trump since January 2016 and more latterly with Kushner. He also worked for Romney prior to his time with Trump. He had a successful career in corporate land having been CFO at Microsoft and at General Motors. He has a doctorate from Oxford. He's an active philanthropist in New Zealand and in the US. So clearly he is no slouch and doesn't fit the usual pattern of incompetence and grift that defines this Administration. So why would someone who is ostensibly intelligent, hardworking and is, what we would call here in New Zealand, 'a decent bloke', hitch his wagon to Trump, and continue to do so even now after all that has gone on up until now, and with what will clearly happen in the future as the Administration tailspins to disaster? Why would an otherwise competent, sentient and high-functioning individual freely and willing join such a train-wreck?

The only answer I can think of is ideology: that is, he shares the same ethno-nationalist-authoritarian views as Trump. There were hints of this when theTV item showed him being interviewed and saying words to the effect of, "the days of unfettered free trade are over". Anyone who describes the current rules-based free trade environment as "unfettered" does so not on the basis of empirical evidence, but on emotion and ideology.

In other words he is a fascist fellow-traveler. As they all are.
posted by vac2003 at 1:46 PM on March 21, 2018 [21 favorites]


I was wondering how long till Sessions was implicated, let's hope his name is one of the ones on Mueller's sealed indictments.

The guy literally perjured himself in his Senate confirmation hearings for his AG appointment. He must be in one of them.
posted by ocschwar at 2:02 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


Just to clarify; you guys are assuming Mueller has sealed indictments rather than there being evidence of that being so, correct?
posted by Justinian at 2:22 PM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


In the next month, we will show everyone a tool at the top of your News Feed with the apps you've used and an easy way to revoke those apps' permissions to your data. We already have a tool to do this in your privacy settings, and now we will put this tool at the top of your News Feed to make sure everyone sees it.

NOT GOOD ENOUGH! *whip crack*

I was really hoping that this would be the final crack in Facebook and that it would finally go the hell away (for varying values of "away"). Facebook has killed so many of my favorite niche websites because the readerships stopped leaving the Facebook walled garden and the sites' traffic dried up. Now we know how shady and/or careless they are with user data. The web was better off without it, ease of sharing baby pictures be damned.
posted by Servo5678 at 2:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


I do wonder whether social media should be treated as, like, a natural monopoly best run as a public utility.

with no one person in control and people free to recognize or block whatever nodes they want?

something like usenet?

i know, it's a bit of a derail, but isn't it a little frustrating that we've replaced the open, free tools of the 90s with multi-billion dollar conduits for shitlords and bullshit artists?
posted by pyramid termite at 2:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [70 favorites]


Per the ABC article the FBI's investigation into Sessions' "lack of candor" is over, so I wouldn't get your hopes up there.

One of the authors on Twitter:

Important point: Sessions attorney only says AG not still under investigation for statements made during confirmation. As our story says, it’s still unclear whether Mueller might be pursuing other statements Sessions has made since confirmation.
posted by diogenes at 2:39 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


ErisLordFreedom: A bazillion dollars from whom? Facebook is paid for by advertisers, not end users. Dreamwidth respects user privacy, bans vile accounts (I don't know that they have a Nazi presence), and arranges the readlist in chrono order - and it's not swimming in money.

See also: Diaspora*, which has existed in some form for over 7 years now, yet it hasn't gone anywhere. (Reading this summary of its development, written in 2012, indicates that 1) the CompSci undergrads overpromised what they could offer, and 2) there was a tragedy that set the effort back, possibly ending any momentum it actually had.)

Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd, and Diaspora (and other also-ran systems) just don't have the Facebook-scale crowds. (See also: Twitter vs Mastodon)
posted by filthy light thief at 2:40 PM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


Just to clarify; you guys are assuming Mueller has sealed indictments rather than there being evidence of that being so, correct?

There's several suspicious documents filed under seal with numbers around Manafort's original indictments. But no, I don't think there's hard evidence that these are related to the Mueller investigation. It's educated wishing.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:40 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


"Peace through strength" is a slogan from when Trump was a kid. Take a look at Victor "Vicky" Weisz's editorial cartoon from 1955 [source]
Transcript:
1940 STRENGTH THROUGH JOY
1945 JOY THROUGH PEACE 
1950 PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH
1955 DEFENCE THROUGH DETERRENTS 
195? ANNIHILATION THROUGH ACCIDENT 
We're obviously deep in the stupid cycle.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:41 PM on March 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


Kevin Drum makes an important point regarding Facebook - not a new one, but I thought this was well put: Facebook will never change unless we force it to.
In a sense, though, I don’t blame either Facebook or Zuckerberg for any of this. As a country, we’ve made it crystal clear that we don’t care about personal privacy. We mock European privacy directives. We ignore the dozens of companies that do exactly the same thing as Facebook but have lower profiles. We allow credit reporting companies to collect anything they want with no oversight at all when they screw up and wreck someone’s life. ... If we don’t like the idea of Facebook making our personal lives an open book to anyone, we can do something about it. The way to do that is to elect “politicians” who will write “laws” that regulate it.
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:42 PM on March 21, 2018 [32 favorites]


This is a little cheering: Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts is throwing some decent shade in his response to Mark Zuckerberg. (Link is Twitter with a screencap)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:44 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


From Zuckerberg's statement: The good news is that the most important actions to prevent this from happening again today we have already taken years ago.

What.


Seriously. How does this sentence even exist?
posted by diogenes at 2:49 PM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


The good news is the escaped horses emerged from an enterance we have been affixing a hinged door to.
posted by Artw at 2:51 PM on March 21, 2018 [44 favorites]


(I may be too strongly implying an intent to close the door or not randomly open it at intervals here.)
posted by Artw at 2:51 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


From Zuckerberg's statement: The good news is that the most important actions to prevent this from happening again today we have already taken years ago.

What.

Seriously. How does this sentence even exist?


It's true that the Facebook Graph API, since 2015, no longer lets you get a list of friends even though you've agreed to grant an app access to your facebook. (It only lets you see the friends of the user who have also signed up for the app. From my consulting days, I can promise that you usually have to explain this limitation to clients at least 3 times before they realize that their brilliant app idea that requires getting a list of all of each user's facebook friends to work... will not work)
posted by dis_integration at 2:54 PM on March 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


Facebook: Using Time Travel to Fix Todays Problems Yesterday so you can’t Legislate Us Tomorrow!
posted by valkane at 2:55 PM on March 21, 2018 [29 favorites]




U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions instructed federal prosecutors on Wednesday to seek the death penalty in drug-related cases whenever it is “appropriate",

So...never?
posted by H. Roark at 3:18 PM on March 21, 2018 [21 favorites]


Sessions is going to start using death penalty for drug users laws that are already on the books.

“In the face of all of this death, we cannot continue with business as usual need even more death," Sessions said of the opioid epidemic in a memo sent to the country’s U.S. Attorneys offices.
posted by zakur at 3:21 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


the death penalty law for drug crimes aren't for users. these penalties are for large-scale dealers/operations or dealers committing murder during a drug crime.

this is still not good! but we are not quite at the point of summarily executing drug users.
posted by murphy slaw at 3:23 PM on March 21, 2018


In all this Daniels-storming, CamAnal (sorry) psychwars, warranted Facebook-bashing, and endless Mueller forensics, I'm losing track.

Is there any sort of serious inquiry into what the fuck the FBI--who unlike the Russians is actually supposed to be accountable to the American people--was doing fucking with the election?

I would like that to not get lost.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:27 PM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]


i know, it's a bit of a derail, but isn't it a little frustrating that we've replaced the open, free tools of the 90s with multi-billion dollar conduits for shitlords and bullshit artists?

To re-rail this idea, remember that the free, open Internet was built by government and academics. The walled-off, data-mining Panopticon-Internet was built by business. This is the natural end result of Republicans' (and some Democrats') ceaseless campaign to "shrink government until you can drown it in a bathtub," ceding what was once a commonly-held good into the pockets of capitalists. This is, for the unfettered-capitalism cultists, the Internet working as it should. And look at the incredible results they've gotten from their investment! Now the democratic process itself is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with the sentiments of millions of voters just another item on their balance sheets. Or so they want us to believe.
posted by biogeo at 3:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [99 favorites]


CamAnal (sorry)

How about Camalytica?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:36 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


Is there any sort of serious inquiry into what the fuck the FBI--who unlike the Russians is actually supposed to be accountable to the American people--was doing fucking with the election?

I would like that to not get lost.


I agree, but I'm willing to give them a stay on that investigation as long as they're investigating the criminal activity of the Trump campaign and the GOP. Once that's over, as others have noted before, we're going to need a hell of a truth-and-reconciliation process, and the FBI's actions during 2016 absolutely must be part of that.
posted by biogeo at 3:37 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Anyone who launched a Facebook knock-off today that would actually respect user privacy, ban the fucking Nazis, and arranged posts in chronological fucking order could make a bazillion dollars.

This is demonstrably untrue. Most of these have been mentioned already, but these are the Facebook-like services I can think of just off the top of my head: Google+, Diaspora, Ello, Mastodon, Dreamwidth. I recently learned of MeWe, Vero, and the now-defunct Tsu when I asked my Facebook friends about their preferred alternatives. Some of them meet your criteria and some don't, but what they all have in common is that none of them have more than a tiny fraction of the users Facebook has, and most people have never even heard of most of them.

Facebook benefits tremendously from the network effect. Alternatively, you could think of it as a type of vendor lock-in. IMHO the best alternative would be for Facebook to continue under new management, because they do enough things right that it would be a pretty awesome service if it were being run in a more civic-minded way.
posted by shponglespore at 3:41 PM on March 21, 2018 [14 favorites]


USENET was wonderful in its day, but by the turn of the century it was overrun by spammers and trolls and pretty useless.
posted by msalt at 3:46 PM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


I'm on Facebook because everyone I know is on Facebook. Switching to a new service requires migrating that whole network, including the older people who had enough trouble just learning Facebook, to a new one. Your best bet is to hope a younger generation makes a new, more ethical Facebook-like site popular so that it grows as they grow up and The Olds slowly move over to it.
posted by Anonymous at 3:46 PM on March 21, 2018


Or how about social media works like SMS, and cell phones. I can text and call any phone, on any carrier, in any country. If I want, I can change my carrier.

Social media would be great if it worked like that, instead of the walled-garden lock in.
posted by yesster at 3:49 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


according to my 14 y/o the youngs already think facebook is a joke and none of them use it
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:49 PM on March 21, 2018 [48 favorites]


I work with teens as a youth minister. They looked at me like I was a Martian when I asked if any of them were on Facebook. I might as well have asked them about their favorite Victrola records.
posted by EarBucket at 3:56 PM on March 21, 2018 [44 favorites]


When today's 12-13 year olds are voting age, the disinformation infrastructure will move to Snapchat/Instagram or whatever is after those, it's not like those platforms are measurably better on privacy and verification than Facebook/twitter. It's just that right now their primary audiences don't vote.

Facebook's problems don't come from the age of the user base, but from a lack of oversight.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:00 PM on March 21, 2018 [30 favorites]


Anyone who launched a Facebook knock-off today that would actually respect user privacy, ban the fucking Nazis, and arranged posts in chronological fucking order could make a bazillion dollars.

I can't believe nobody's doing it. I really can't.


Let me tell you the story of RSS and Google Reader....
posted by srboisvert at 4:00 PM on March 21, 2018 [43 favorites]


The New York Times: How a Witness for Mueller and a Republican Donor Influenced the White House for Gulf Rulers
A cooperating witness in the special counsel investigation worked for more than a year to turn a top Trump fund-raiser into an instrument of influence at the White House for the rulers of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to interviews and previously undisclosed documents.

Hundreds of pages of correspondence between the two men reveal an active effort to cultivate President Trump on behalf of the two oil-rich Arab monarchies, both close American allies.

High on the agenda of the two men — George Nader, a political adviser to the de facto ruler of the U.A.E.; and Elliott Broidy, the deputy finance chairman of the Republican National Committee — was pushing the White House to remove Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson, backing confrontational approaches to Iran and Qatar and repeatedly pressing the president to meet privately outside the White House with the leader of U.A.E.

Mr. Tillerson was fired last week, and the president has adopted tough approaches toward both Iran and Qatar.

Mr. Nader tempted the fund-raiser, Mr. Broidy, with the prospect of more than $1 billion in contracts for his private security company, Circinus, and he helped deliver deals worth more than $200 billion with the United Arab Emirates. He also flattered Mr. Broidy about “how well you handle Chairman,” a reference to Mr. Trump, and repeated to his well-connected friend that he told the effective rulers of both Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. about “the Pivotal Indispensable Magical Role you are playing to help them.”
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:06 PM on March 21, 2018 [14 favorites]




shponglespore: Most of these have been mentioned already, but these are the Facebook-like services I can think of just off the top of my head: Google+, Diaspora, Ello, Mastodon, Dreamwidth. I recently learned of MeWe, Vero, and the now-defunct Tsu when I asked my Facebook friends about their preferred alternatives.

Wikipedia's article comparison of software and protocols for distributed social networking is pretty long.

yesster: Or how about social media works like SMS, and cell phones. I can text and call any phone, on any carrier, in any country. If I want, I can change my carrier.

Interestingly one of the things on that list, "Mr. Privacy", is evidently designed to operate via email?
posted by XMLicious at 4:13 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


this administration is an ouroboros of graft. i can’t keep track of which countries are trying to buy influence and which ones trump’s family and inner circle are trying to peddle influence to. it’s a writhing heap of lampreys all feeding on each other.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:16 PM on March 21, 2018 [30 favorites]


LiveJournal was and Dreamwidth is perfect for my social networking needs, but all the people I used to LiveJournal with all en masse, for reasons that I could not fathom at the time and still do not understand, moved to Tumblr.

Anything ad supported is going to go the way of Facebook by necessity. Anything not ad supported needs to be supported by the users. Enough people don't want to pay that it's extremely difficult to get a network effect on the latter model.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:20 PM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


With cell phones and SMS, you are paying for the service. You are the customer, not the product.
posted by clawsoon at 4:20 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Kevin Drum makes an important point regarding Facebook - not a new one, but I thought this was well put: Facebook will never change unless we force it to.

The page with this article will, of course, have your browser report your activity to Facebook if you're not blocking scripts. Same for many of the other content outlets running this narrative. Would they stop if pressured?
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 4:25 PM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


but all the people I used to LiveJournal with all en masse, for reasons that I could not fathom at the time and still do not understand, moved to Tumblr

guys remember when Russia ruined LiveJournal? time is a flat circle.
posted by prefpara at 4:25 PM on March 21, 2018 [58 favorites]


soren_lorenson, this and this might explain why there has been a mass exodus from Livejournal.
posted by suburbanbeatnik at 4:29 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate:
-- A bundle of PPP polls (Dems listed first):
  • AZ: Sinema up 46-41 on McSally
  • PA: Casey up 54-36 on Barletta
  • NV: Rosen up 44-39 on Heller
  • TN: Bredesen up 46-41 on Blackburn
  • WI: Baldwin up 51-39 on either GOP candidate
** MS Senate special -- Intrigue increases as the White House says it doesn't back Gov Bryant's pick of Cindy Hyde-Smith to fill the Cochran vacancy, and won't endorse or campaign for her. One might wonder how much Trump's endorsement is actually worth, but in this case - an open primary with no party labels and a not super well-known candidate, it could be important. Vox look at the race, more from Cook Political.

** 2018 House:
-- UT-04: Mellman poll has incumbent GOPer Love up 43-40 on Dem challenger McAdams.

-- IL-03: It's pretty clear that, as theorized, it was GOP voters who saved Rep Lipinski in last night's primary.

-- Lake Research poll looking at the generic ballot specifically in 30 swing districts (since it doesn't matter if Dems run up the score in safe blue districts) finds Dems up 11 points, 46-35. Also leading 11 points on the enthusiasm question.
** Odds & ends:
-- Democrats are contesting more state legislative seats than in any year since 1982.

-- As mentioned last night, Democratic turnout in the IL primaries was way up.

-- Our old buddy Kris Kobach out with a JMC Analytics poll showing him leading in the GOP gubernatorial primary for KS governor, up 31-18 on LtGov Collyer. Still a lot of undecideds, and this was taken before his very bad week in court.

-- PA GOP still talking impeachment of state Supreme Court justices over redistricting. Not clear how much this is letting the far right make noise or if it really has support from leadership. The GOP has a considerable margin in the House, they have just over the needed 2/3 in the Senate.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:31 PM on March 21, 2018 [28 favorites]


TN: Bredesen up 46-41 on Blackburn

*overcome with the vapors
posted by saturday_morning at 4:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Mastodon seems to have a little buzz. Does anyone here use it?
posted by msalt at 4:36 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


Lots of folks.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:38 PM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


biogeo: To re-rail this idea, remember that the free, open Internet was built by government and academics. The walled-off, data-mining Panopticon-Internet was built by business.

Was it, though? The Internet was hardwired to be a surveillance tool from the start.
Pick up any popular history of the Internet and you will generally find a combination of two narratives describing where this computer networking technology came from. The first narrative is that it emerged out of the military’s need for a communication network that could survive a nuclear blast...The second narrative, which is the most dominant, contends that there was no military application of the early Internet at all. In this version, the ARPANET was built by radical young computer engineers and playful hackers deeply influenced by the acid-drenched counterculture of the San Francisco Bay Area...For years, a conflict has raged between these historical interpretations. These days, most histories offer a mix of the two—acknowledging the first, yet leaning much more heavily on the second.

My research reveals a third historical strand in the creation of the early Internet—a strand that has all but disappeared from the history books. Here, the impetus was rooted not so much in the need to survive a nuclear attack but in the dark military arts of counterinsurgency and America’s fight against the perceived global spread of communism... The Internet came out of this effort: an attempt to build computer systems that could collect and share intelligence, watch the world in real time, and study and analyze people and political movements with the ultimate goal of predicting and preventing social upheaval. Some even dreamed of creating a sort of early warning radar for human societies: a networked computer system that watched for social and political threats and intercepted them in much the same way that traditional radar did for hostile aircraft. In other words, the Internet was hardwired to be a surveillance tool from the start. No matter what we use the network for today—dating, directions, encrypted chat, email, or just reading the news—it always had a dual-use nature rooted in intelligence gathering and war.
posted by joedan at 4:39 PM on March 21, 2018 [6 favorites]


Was it, though? The Internet was hardwired to be a surveillance tool from the start.

When I was a kid/teenager way back when in 1995 I had it drummed into me by old timers on the net that anything could be picked up at any time by any adversary, government or private, unless it was a secure connection and to expect that everyone was reading anything you sent unencrypted.
posted by Talez at 4:52 PM on March 21, 2018 [22 favorites]


soren_lorenson, this and this might explain why there has been a mass exodus from Livejournal.

It was well before that for the most part (this is ancient Lorensen family history at this point) and they could have still gone to Dreamwidth if they wanted all of the LiveJournal with less of the ownership (there's even utilities that port all your stuff over there). It just seemed like no one wanted to blog anymore, suddenly. Just click a button, share a picture, click a like, scroll endlessly. It's not really how I prefer to digitally socialize, which I think just makes me a fossil.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:55 PM on March 21, 2018 [24 favorites]


Whereas in 2018 they have two billion people log in to a secure site and then share all their data. Problem solved! /s
posted by Autumnheart at 4:58 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


The Internet was hardwired to be a surveillance tool from the start.
In 1972, almost as soon as the ARPANET was rolled out on a national level, the network was used to help the CIA, the NSA, and the U.S. Army spy on tens of thousands of antiwar and civil rights activists.
It's a little bit too thin for the author to be unable to explain what they're specifically talking about here, when this is a promotional piece for a book. I'm feeling a premonition that the computer network technology will turn out to have been "used for spying" in the same way that paperclips and filing cabinets were "used for spying", by fulfilling their mundane purpose.

I'm also looking askance at the claim that the author was "genuinely shocked" to learn that MIT and Harvard students tried to expel military-academic partnership projects from their campuses in 1969.
posted by XMLicious at 5:08 PM on March 21, 2018 [27 favorites]


Chrysostom, I am very appreciative of your tireless updates and analyses! Would it be possible to also include the margin of error when you post poll/survey results? I worry that many of the results are well within the margin of error so it's misleading to simply state that someone is "up" when in reality they're statistically tied. Thanks!
posted by ElKevbo at 5:08 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


and thinking about it more, i understand why Trump has gutted the State department and scattered the diplomatic corps to the four winds. traditional diplomacy is a tool for nation-states to come to agreements without direct aggression. but it's about conversations between nations, not individuals, not even the heads of state themselves.

trump wants dealings with other countries to be personal. he wants his own guy in there, because otherwise, there's no opportunity to stick out his palm and hope it gets greased. jared is trump's diplomat of choice because he's going to get a piece of the action, not some trade agreement or border agreement trump doesn't give a shit about.
posted by murphy slaw at 5:11 PM on March 21, 2018 [33 favorites]


Would it be possible to also include the margin of error when you post poll/survey results?

What a monstrous request. I'll try to remember, sure.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:13 PM on March 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


It just seemed like no one wanted to blog anymore, suddenly.

I suspect it's rather like MMO players, where the actual activity loses its novelty and becomes a chore, and you mostly just do it because that's what the community's doing, even though you would have given it up long ago if you were on your own.

How is this relevant to the US politics threads? How do you think.
posted by Merus at 5:16 PM on March 21, 2018 [11 favorites]




That PPP poll is the first legitimate polling of that race I've seen. There's been other encouraging Gravis polls this week too:

FL - Nelson 44, Scott 40
MO - McCaskill 42, Hawley 40

And a few weeks ago but still:
ND - Heitkamp 43, Cramer 40

Holding all of these seats is going to be a huge challenge, but it's looking more and more achievable all the time.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:18 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


isn't it a little frustrating that we've replaced the open, free tools of the 90s with multi-billion dollar conduits for shitlords and bullshit artists?

I know Myspace was just as much a corporate entity as Facebook, but they seemed more trustworthy when those were the two options, because their corporate model was more transparent and they allowed users more freedom to customize and tinker.

I actively boycotted Facebook for as long as I could until I needed it for work, even as friends all migrated to Facebook. They all said, "Facebook looks so much cleaner and there's not all those horribly themed profile pages." To which I'd answer, "Those horrible themes are awesome. They're a perfect instant indicator of who to avoid, how much they engage with the site, how tech-savvy they are, etc. They are reminders that the platform is not entirely safe."

Facebook uses the same clean white wall that first attracted users to also camouflage all the dark sides of their business model hoping nobody will notice, and they've had that wolf in sheep's clothing veneer from day one.
posted by p3t3 at 5:20 PM on March 21, 2018 [29 favorites]


Proving yet again that PA republicans are the worst: Facing allegations that he sexually or physically abused two women, state Rep. Nick Miccarelli on Wednesday announced that he will not be seeking reelection.

He could have pulled a Trump and not resigned.
posted by Artw at 5:21 PM on March 21, 2018




It just seemed like no one wanted to blog anymore, suddenly. Just click a button, share a picture, click a like, scroll endlessly. It's not really how I prefer to digitally socialize, which I think just makes me a fossil.

Me too. I really miss blogs. I literally do not find Twitter/Facebook posts interesting because 90% of the time they're just a pic or a sentence or a video.

I actively boycotted Facebook for as long as I could until I needed it for work, even as friends all migrated to Facebook.

Yeah, unfortunately it's not an option any more to quit Facebook, for reasons exactly like that. It's like not being computer literate/not owning a computer or not owning a cell phone. But when literally everyone has the same thing...now we end up with crap like this.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:31 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


octothorpe: "Proving yet again that PA republicans are the worst: Facing allegations that he sexually or physically abused two women, state Rep. Nick Miccarelli on Wednesday announced that he will not be seeking reelection."

Note that one of the women was a fellow legislator.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:33 PM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]




No DACA deal. No ACA fixes.

Gosh, the Dems must be utterly blindsided by this.
posted by Artw at 5:37 PM on March 21, 2018 [19 favorites]


To be fair, none of those 90s free tools ever went away. I am perfectly capable of buying a domain, getting a web host (or building my own), and cranking out a website and blog for myself that contains all the same information I give to Facebook and Twitter but housed on a platform that I fully control. Good old-fashioned Web 1.0 with a secure contact form and everything, just like I did in 1998. Maybe I'll even give it a guestbook. This is, in fact, exactly what I intend to do when/if I ever actually start the webcomic I've always wanted to start.

Everyone has flocked to the fancy corporate Web 2.0 bullshit conduits because they're better than anything I could hope to make. They're cheaper, easier, fancier, more reliable, and more fun. Nobody is going to go back to the old way. We can't even hope for people to go to a more secure alternative unless something else becomes fancier and more fun than Facebook. Facebook is a walled garden the same way Disneyland is a walled garden, the only difference is the currency you're paying to ride the rides.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 5:40 PM on March 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


Wait, this is alarming. From The Verge:
News of [Twitter's Chief Security Officer, Michael] Coates’ departure comes on the same day that Michael Zelewski, director of information security engineering at Google, announced his departure from that company after 11 years. And it comes two days after reports that Alex Stamos, Facebook’s chief security officer, plans to leave the company in August.

What are the odds that three top security officers of the the three top Internet communication platforms announce their departure practically simultaneously?

(Link earlier posted by Artw)
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:40 PM on March 21, 2018 [71 favorites]


Because this is our stupid government now, Paul Ryan is going on Fox And Friends tomorrow morning, presumably to feed talking points to the President in an attempt to keep him from lashing out against the omnibus bill.
posted by murphy slaw at 5:46 PM on March 21, 2018 [20 favorites]


Yeah, unfortunately it's not an option any more to quit Facebook, for reasons exactly like that. It's like not being computer literate/not owning a computer or not owning a cell phone. But when literally everyone has the same thing...now we end up with crap like this.

This is defeatist and it isn’t true. I’m personally and professionally successful and I have a large network of friends and contacts all over the world. I quit facebook immediately when they switched their rollout from “universities” to “everybody” in my country. The worst consequence I experienced was sometimes not being invited to parties, in the age before the advent of chat apps with group chat options. Plus I’ve consistently refused to apply for jobs that require that you have a social media presence or exploit the social media presence of others; but that’s not exactly a negative consequence. At this stage, when people ask to add me on FB and I explain that I don’t have it, they seem more jealous than surprised.

Since leaving, I’ve never read a single article, comment, tweet, whatever, that has made me regret the decision. It literally just seems to have become consistently worse by every metric. There may be a slight inconvenience involved in not being on FB but I’m sorry, I don’t see it as being any more difficult than any other form of political involvement. Slightly less convenient than “not buying profitable shares in defence contractors” and slightly more convenient than “becoming a vegetarian”.

I left for generally selfish reasons, but it should be an obvious moral choice by now.
posted by chappell, ambrose at 5:47 PM on March 21, 2018 [47 favorites]


Heck, you can have your own Wordpress blog set up in less than an hour, fully responsive and all. No domain required.
posted by Autumnheart at 5:48 PM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


I can't check all the numbers myself and I assume we'll have articles all day tomorrow, but if I'm reading it right this budget cuts our agency back below 2015 levels, a little less than $1 bil. That's going to hurt. A lot.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:50 PM on March 21, 2018 [8 favorites]


So this thing is basically psychopath ready, or are they going to extract an extra bucket of blood?

I can guess which.

Also II hope Chuck Schumer is getting the shit primaried out of him.
posted by Artw at 5:52 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Schumer is not up until 2022.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:53 PM on March 21, 2018 [1 favorite]


Then we make sure to remember this then.
posted by Artw at 5:55 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


Roy Blunt R-MO used Cambridge Analytica. He beat Jason Kander in that race.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 5:59 PM on March 21, 2018 [10 favorites]


OK I may have been comparing the wrong numbers. Request vs. enacted. It's about a billion below the agency's request. I think we'll get a small increase that's less than the inflation number, so limp along another year! Maybe we won't have to fire people!
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:03 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


T. D. Strange, it looks as though my agency holds steady, much to my surprise. I don’t expect research agencies to fare well in this climate.
posted by wintermind at 6:06 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


It's hard not to wonder if CamAlytica had a number of clients (such as Ted Cruz) for whom the work they did was perfunctory at best (I know he wasn't happy with it, anyway), because they were always 100% for Russian causes (and his campaign wasn't one). Like how when you get a haircut from a barbershop that's actually a mob front, you'll get a really lousy haircut.

That seemed a solid possibility even before the new racist revelation underscores that (it appears unlikely that Nix ever thought of black clients as worth actually serving).
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:08 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


I really miss blogs.

There's much less personal blogging these days, to be sure, but a fair number of the old-school political blogs are still around. Eschaton and Daily Kos are still doing pretty much what they've always done, Heather "Digby" Parton is still offering smart commentary, Driftglass and Rude Pundit are still bringing the snark, and Balloon Juice and Lawyers, Guns and Money have multiple posts daily from their respective groups of bloggers, with very active and mostly smart comments sections.

These are just a few I've reading since back in the Bush years, but there must be others still around from back then, too. (If anyone else wants to chime in with additional examples, that'd be swell.)
posted by Nat "King" Cole Porter Wagoner at 6:09 PM on March 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


God I miss Get Your War On. Anyone who feels the slightest bit of revisionist nostalgia for W needs to go read their archives.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 6:13 PM on March 21, 2018 [44 favorites]


If I'm reading the budget right, NSF research and related activities, DOE office of science, and NASA science directorate all got budget increases of ~5%+ relative to the FY17 enacted budgets. There was little to no detail on more granular activities, though.
posted by janewman at 6:17 PM on March 21, 2018 [2 favorites]


I miss that Billmon post illustrating the entire deceptive march to war with only direct quotes from Bush administration officials. I feel like now would be a good reminder of how something like that works.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:19 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


Mod note: Folks, the Facebook-or-not thing is getting to the derail level. Please take it elsewhere - there is a Cambridge Analytics thread.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 6:21 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


God I miss Get Your War On. Anyone who feels the slightest bit of revisionist nostalgia for W needs to go read their archives.

Every time Trump does some crazy new bullshit I remember this GYWO about dominating the news cycle. Every time. I wish this one was redone with Trump.
posted by Justinian at 6:24 PM on March 21, 2018 [12 favorites]


The Intercept:SAUDI CROWN PRINCE BOASTED THAT JARED KUSHNER WAS “IN HIS POCKET”

UNTIL HE WAS stripped of his top-secret security clearance in February, presidential adviser Jared Kushner was known around the White House as one of the most voracious readers of the President’s Daily Brief, a highly classified rundown of the latest intelligence intended only for the president and his closest advisers.

In late October, Jared Kushner made an unannounced trip to Riyadh, catching some intelligence officials off guard. “The two princes are said to have stayed up until nearly 4 a.m. several nights, swapping stories and planning strategy,” the Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported at the time.

What exactly Kushner and the Saudi royal talked about in Riyadh may be known only to them, but after the meeting, Crown Prince Mohammed told confidants that Kushner had discussed the names of Saudis disloyal to the crown prince, according to three sources who have been in contact with members of the Saudi and Emirati royal families since the crackdown. Kushner, through his attorney’s spokesperson, denies having done so.

On November 4, a week after Kushner returned to the U.S., the crown prince, known in official Washington by his initials MBS, launched what he called an anti-corruption crackdown. The Saudi government arrested dozens of members of the Saudi royal family and imprisoned them in the Ritz-Carlton Riyadh, which was first reported in English by The Intercept. The Saudi figures named in the President’s Daily Brief were among those rounded up; at least one was reportedly tortured.

It is likely that Crown Prince Mohammed would have known who his critics were without Kushner mentioning them, a U.S. government official who declined to be identified pointed out. The crown prince may also have had his own reasons for saying that Kushner shared information with him, even if that wasn’t true. Just the appearance that Kushner did so would send a powerful message to the crown prince’s allies and enemies that his actions were backed by the U.S. government.

One of the people MBS told about the discussion with Kushner was UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, according to a source who talks frequently to confidants of the Saudi and Emirati rulers. MBS bragged to the Emirati crown prince and others that Kushner was “in his pocket,” the source told The Intercept.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:39 PM on March 21, 2018 [74 favorites]


Washington Post: Trump’s Remark to Putin That They Could Meet Soon Caught White House Advisers by Surprise
President Trump’s senior advisers were thrown when he told Russian President Vladi­mir Putin on Tuesday that he expected to meet with him soon, as briefings before the call to Moscow included no mention of a possible meeting, and aides have not been instructed to prepare for one, senior administration officials said.

Although Trump told reporters that “probably we’ll be seeing President Putin in the not-too-distant future,” several officials said there are no plans for the two even to be in the same country until November, when both are expected to attend a Group of 20 summit in Argentina.[...]

Trump’s briefing materials for the Putin call, placed in a binder by the staff secretary’s office for Trump’s review, did not include any reference to a meeting, and specifically warned against congratulating the Russian president, said a person with direct knowledge who, like other officials, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal White House deliberations.

Senior White House officials have previously opposed a bilateral meeting with the Russian president.
Yes, it's odd that Trump should want to meet with Putin so soon after firing his ploddingly cautious Secretary of State and promising an unprecedented summit with Russian ally North Korea. It's almost as though Trump and Putin might be…colluding.

Meanwhile, the New York Times editorial board is scratching its collective head over this puzzling question: Why Is Trump So Afraid of Russia? Yes, it's puzzling all right. How long will it take them to start considering the technical issue of whether Trump is a Russian intelligence asset or a Russian intelligence agent?
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:27 PM on March 21, 2018 [53 favorites]


Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers (R) after Rep. Jenniffer González (non-voting Resident Commissioner for Puerto Rico) spoke, to the next witness: "It's refreshing to finally have a witness who doesn't have an accent."
posted by bluecore at 7:35 PM on March 21, 2018 [28 favorites]


I'm also looking askance at the claim that the author was "genuinely shocked" to learn that MIT and Harvard students tried to expel military-academic partnership projects from their campuses in 1969.

I read it as "shocked that students at these two incubating universities would actively work against it from day 1 because it was obvious that it would be used for mass control and mass surveillance", as in "people don't even know that now and it was always evident, even at the outset".

A good article though, if only for the recap of Google's military operations. Some of which was TIL.

And because of course, that "about" of the author is:
Yasha Levine is an investigative journalist and a former editor of Moscow-based newspaper The eXile. He is the author of the forthcoming book _Surveillance Valley: The Secret Military History of the Internet_.

*sigh* Sure. Why not.
posted by petebest at 7:35 PM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


Some good minor items in the budget bill - adequate funding for the Census, $380M in immediate funding of election security measures by states.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:08 PM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


"It's refreshing to finally have a witness who doesn't have an accent."

I'm sure there's plenty to pillory Rogers for, but I think that was a southerner joke, i.e., referring to their (common) southern accent.
posted by pjenks at 8:11 PM on March 21, 2018 [7 favorites]


Chrysostom - some minor gun stuff, too. Sounds like Fix NICS is in there plus language clarifying that there is no legal barrier to the CDC or other health agencies researching gun violence?

I don't see this omnibus as being an abject surrender like others. It's not good and it blows out the budget in conjunction with the tax cuts but the Ds seem to have gotten what they could get.
posted by Justinian at 8:15 PM on March 21, 2018 [3 favorites]


billmon and the poor man. miss those guys.
posted by j_curiouser at 8:18 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


A Controversial AIDS Researcher Was Just Tapped To Head The CDC
Robert Redfield's decades of scientific work is "peerless," said Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar in a statement released Wednesday. But others point to his checkered past, including allegations of scientific misconduct.
CSPI (Center for Science in the Public Interest) Urges Administration Not to Appoint Dr. Robert Redfield, with History of Scientific Misconduct, as CDC Director
posted by MrVisible at 8:29 PM on March 21, 2018 [23 favorites]


Robert Redfield's decades of scientific work is "peerless,"

you see that's your problem right there
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:32 PM on March 21, 2018 [95 favorites]


Sounds like Fix NICS is in there plus language clarifying that there is no legal barrier to the CDC or other health agencies researching gun violence?

Also keeps out the truly odious concealed carry reciprocity.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:34 PM on March 21, 2018 [5 favorites]


Also, mandates that the Congressional Research Service publish reports online, which will greatly improve access.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:37 PM on March 21, 2018 [9 favorites]


I'm sure there's plenty to pillory Rogers for, but I think that was a southerner joke, i.e., referring to their (common) southern accent.

Apparently he made the same joke at an event in North Dakota.

But Ms. Gonzalez-Colón did not have a southern accent. She is from Puerto Rico. And to mutter such a thing when so many Spanish-speakers are marginalized, mocked, and generally attacked for speaking a language spoken by more than 40 million Americans is a special kind of insidious and subtle racism that people get away with every day in the name of humor. And by throwing a bad joke into the session, it undermined the power of what Congresswoman Gonzalez-Colón was saying.
posted by mochapickle at 8:41 PM on March 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


Jenniffer González-Colon on Twitter: What @RepMikeRogersAL was clearly referring to was @FEMA_Brock ’s enunciation, which like Rep. Rogers’, is considered by many people to be a Southern drawl. It was a light-hearted bit of humor and I appreciated it. Rep. Rogers was not being negative about any accent

So we should probably drop this...
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:46 PM on March 21, 2018 [45 favorites]


Every time Trump does some crazy new bullshit I remember this GYWO about dominating the news cycle. Every time. I wish this one was redone with Trump

Get Your War On did one on Trump's Tweets back in 2012 (when it was a more innocent time…).
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:06 PM on March 21, 2018 [4 favorites]


WSJ, Charges Have Been Dropped Against Most Turkish Officers in D.C. Clash, in which most of the people who brutally beat peaceful protesters on US soil are allowed to walk away in the name of "easing tensions" because nothing matters anymore.
posted by zachlipton at 10:11 PM on March 21, 2018 [75 favorites]


The WaPo has a story about how Macron is the closest thing to Western Europe’s Trump whisperer and played a key role in getting the White House to condemn the Russian chemical attack to the extent they did. It contains this unsurprising tidbit about Trump’s relationship with Merkel:
By contrast, Trump did not call to congratulate Merkel on her fourth term, sealed this month with the formation of a coalition government. The two did speak March 1 about Syria and Russia after an extraordinary five-month gap in their direct communications. Obama was in touch with Merkel weekly for much of his presidency, and his administration considered her the central figure in European fiscal and political stability.
posted by peeedro at 11:03 PM on March 21, 2018 [35 favorites]


Obama was in touch with Merkel weekly for much of his presidency, and his administration considered her the central figure in European fiscal and political stability.

Well there's your problem right there, assuming America should give a shit about European fiscal and political stability. That sure doesn't sound America First to me. [/maga]

Exactly three things about Merkel are relevant to Trump: she's a) a woman who b) is not his type and c) has not said nice things about him. Her existence has no other meaning in Trump's world.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 11:31 PM on March 21, 2018 [18 favorites]


d) Angela Merkel isn't even the President of Germany, just the Chancellor. The German President is Frank-Walter Steinmeier who never says anything nice about Trump either, so why should Trump waste time talking to his assistant?
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:50 PM on March 21, 2018 [15 favorites]


I was telling a friend today about companies she could call/email/tweet/etc to ask them to stop funding hate, and realized I haven't seen anybody post this updated Media Matters list of Sean Hannity advertisers lately here, so here it is. Includes Chewy.com (online pet food & supplies), Zynga (Words With Friends, among tons of other games), AT&T, Starkist, Bausch & Lomb...

I emailed Chewy.com to ask if they're committed to continuing to send ad dollars to Hannity. They said, "We’re looking at commercial placements now and making adjustments as needed" which is waffly bullshit but maybe if they hear from enough of us they might find a spine or morals.
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 12:11 AM on March 22, 2018 [30 favorites]


Thanks for the chewy.com heads up cybercoitus interruptus. Here's my email if anyone wants to steal some of the words. Not my best work but it's still early.

" I've been a long time customer of chewy.com and am not pleased that you are sponsoring Sean Hannity's show on Fox. The man is a maelstrom of lies and divisiveness and is doing real damage to the fabric of American society. By giving him your advertising budget you are supporting his efforts.

If you intend to continue your sponsorship of his show through your advertising dollar I'm afraid you'll no longer have my dollars.

I'd be grateful for a response outlining your plans to divest yourself from sponsorship of the poison Hannity spreads.

Best regards etc."

posted by merocet at 5:17 AM on March 22, 2018 [24 favorites]


(Because of course, Trump tweets an early-morning response to the Biden fight-me thing.)
posted by box at 5:26 AM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Fox and Friends is on at six in the morning EDT? First of all, his slavish devotion to them makes a little more sense, and secondly he's been soaking in it for two+ hours now. Anyone know what else will be on the manbaby agenda today?
posted by petebest at 5:35 AM on March 22, 2018


listen, i think we can get a win out of this. let’s arrange a pay-per-view Rumble In The Jungle style bout for Biden and Trump on some uninhabited Pacific atoll

and just leave them there
posted by murphy slaw at 5:35 AM on March 22, 2018 [49 favorites]


> Exactly three things about Merkel are relevant to Trump: she's a) a woman who b) is not his type and c) has not said nice things about him. Her existence has no other meaning in Trump's world.

eh, pretty obviously untrue given how often he still mentions Hillary Clinton in tweets and at rallies. I'm guessing it's more like, why waste precious Executive Time thinking about a country he couldn't find on a map and whose government hasn't tried to bribe him lately?
posted by Old Kentucky Shark at 5:41 AM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Another Trump tweet, both unsurprising for him and stunningly obtuse given the news cycle: Remember when they were saying, during the campaign, that Donald Trump is giving great speeches and drawing big crowds, but he is spending much less money and not using social media as well as Crooked Hillary’s large and highly sophisticated staff. Well, not saying that anymore!

Maybe the new Always A Tweet rule will be that he'll turn every possible scandal into a point of pride. The obvious one that people have long been expecting, of course, would be bragging about his performance in various sexual affairs, but it can take other forms as well.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:45 AM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


but he is spending much less money

if it were me, i might not choose this moment to draw attention to the huge amount of outside money that was spent by entities that were likely illegally coordinating with my campaign

but hey, i'm not smart and tough and president of the united states
posted by murphy slaw at 5:47 AM on March 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


(Because of course, Trump tweets an early-morning response to the Biden fight-me thing.)

A couple of days after Melania hosted her long-awaited anti-cyberbullying initiative with executives from Google, Facebook, and… Twitter. ("I am well aware that people are skeptical of me discussing this topic," she told the audience.)

Anyone know what else will be on the manbaby agenda today?

Trump's public schedule for today includes signing "a Presidential Memorandum targeting China's economic aggression" at 12:30 PM and "a panel discussion at the Generation Next Summit" at 2:15 PM. There's nothing listed for this morning, so expect more tweets during his extended "executive time".
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:52 AM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


I find myself genuinely torn. (I also don't have an account with them, haven't used it in ages and, despite being nominally an 'internet person,' hence the ask, probably don't even know the interface, anymore.)
Is there any chance this can be set up as a professional / business account, not you personally? At least then, it's not your personal data. But then again, you'd be encouraging folks in your union to share more information on a platform which has no meaningful privacy policy. Honestly, that's a tough one.
posted by michswiss at 5:54 AM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Trump's public schedule for today includes signing "a Presidential Memorandum targeting China's economic aggression" at 12:30 PM

This Chinese economic aggression . . . Will it stand? Man?
posted by petebest at 6:24 AM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


President Obama also considered Merkel a friend. She was the final phone call he placed the day before Trump's inauguration. I'm sure that Trump is aware of how well they got along, and he's never going to warm to Merkel.
posted by gladly at 6:31 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Anyone know what else will be on the manbaby agenda today?

Daniel Dale (Toronto Star), a must follow on Twitter in the Trump era, tweets Trump's official next day public schedule every evening.
posted by chris24 at 6:31 AM on March 22, 2018 [14 favorites]




Of course Trump is tweeting about getting in a fist-fight with Joe Biden. He's gotta be riled up about this:

Summons issued to Trump in case alleging he is violating Emoluments Clause
A summons has been issued to President Trump in a lawsuit filed alleging he is violating the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution.

The lawsuit — filed by the attorneys general in Washington D.C. and Maryland — alleges that Trump is violating the clause, which prevents elected officials from receiving gifts or benefits from foreign governments without Congress’s approval, WAMU reported.

The lawsuit is filed against Trump in his "official capacity and in his individual capacity," according to the Washington, D.C. radio station.

The lawsuit also argues that businesses in Maryland and D.C. have been hurt because groups instead choose to stay at Trump's properties in attempts to get in his good favor.
Last year, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit from a liberal watchdog organization arguing that Trump was violating the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:34 AM on March 22, 2018 [72 favorites]


So Kosovo's opposition party just used tear gas to disrupt legislative proceedings and I guess we're not really at that stage yet but maybe we should be.

Although ADAPT peeps are at this moment defying the weather to throw themselves out of their chairs and block traffic and shit. If you see news about ADAPT legend Spitfire, just know this woman wears handcuff earrings and basically badder than all of our asses.
posted by angrycat at 6:34 AM on March 22, 2018 [41 favorites]


Reuters: Republican [Saccone] concedes to Democrat [Lamb] in close U.S. House race in Pennsylvania.

For those keeping score, that means Saccone conceded before Roy Moore.
posted by leotrotsky at 6:35 AM on March 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


Anyone know what else will be on the manbaby agenda today?

I was thinking more of the agenda that Foxy Friends plant in his fecund mind loop for the day. The ones most likely to blurt out via golden toilet tweets and often set the news cycle for a few days while fresh hell foments. I assume Biden was a segment.
posted by petebest at 6:37 AM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


The thing to remember about misogynists is that they don't ignore non-hot women, they actively hate them. The only use Trump has for women is as eye candy, and any woman who can't perform that role for him adequately isn't just disregarded, she is despised. Merkel is an older woman with a lot of power. It's the perfect storm for a misogynist like Trump.

In the Incremental Good News From The States department: [Pennsylvania] Senate OKs bill to toughen gun laws in domestic abuse cases. This really just makes an UTTERLY BONKERS current law slightly less insane, but baby steps I guess.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:37 AM on March 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


from the "there is no intelligence test for Congress" dept.:

TPM: GOP Rep. Blames HUD’s $31,000 Table On The ‘Deep State’
Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) said on Wednesday that Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson is not to blame for the $31,000 dining set his agency purchased for the secretary’s suite.

Instead, Tenney blamed the “deep state,” a term paranoid Trump administration officials use to describe career government employees that Trump’s allies believe are working to undermine President Donald Trump.

“Somebody in the deep state ― it was not one of his people, apparently ― ordered a table, like a conference room table or whatever it was, for a room,” Tenney said on WUTQ radio’s “Talk of the Town.” “And that’s what the cost was. Ben Carson tried to — he said, ‘You know how hard it is to turn it back because of the way that the procurement happens?'”
You may remember Rep. Tenney from her comments about how many mass shooters "turn out to be Democrats" in the wake of the Florida school shooting. It appears that she's in for a tough fight for her district in November.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:40 AM on March 22, 2018 [44 favorites]


Didn't Carson already throw his wife under the bus?
posted by PenDevil at 6:41 AM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


yes, but apparently Tenney didn't get the memo:
Asked about Carson’s testimony placing responsibility on his wife, Candy Carson, Tenney said, “I don’t know that he’s blaming his wife.”
posted by murphy slaw at 6:42 AM on March 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


WSJ, Charges Have Been Dropped Against Most Turkish Officers in D.C. Clash, in which most of the people who brutally beat peaceful protesters on US soil are allowed to walk away in the name of "easing tensions" because nothing matters anymore.

I share your disgust but there are actually some pretty compelling reasons for "easing tensions" with Turkey right now.
posted by GalaxieFiveHundred at 6:53 AM on March 22, 2018


Honestly a big conference room dining set is not going to be cheap, especially if the Federal Govt is buying. If they’d simply gone with that story, the truth, this would have died after the first news cycle.
posted by notyou at 6:55 AM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


This is quite an amazing time we live in (not good, just amazing. May you live in interesting times). Not just Trump but consider the following:

One of the left's biggest strengths is also the biggest weakness. The big tent philosophy leads to disagreements and prevents us from moving in lockstep. I'm not complaining, I think morally and philosophically that is the best way to be, but I have to admit it bites us in the ass from time to time.

That is the right's largest strength. They are fervent in their single mindedness, and generally move in complete synchronization.

But Trump. Oh Trump has lifted the veil to some degree and splintered them in many ways. Ways I've never seen Republicans split. It has happened here with Tenney and Carson, and on a larger scale with Russia and election shenanigans. And in some cases it is as simple as a lack of coordination and timing with message, but its causing a death by a thousand cuts.


I'm not saying any of the right are principled, they're just being shitty in separate directions, and that split is giving the left another slight advantage.
posted by Twain Device at 6:57 AM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


from the "mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore!" dept.:

AP: White House issues threat over leaked Trump briefing papers
WASHINGTON (AP) — The tempest over President Donald Trump’s congratulatory phone call to Vladimir Putin quickly grew into an uproar over White House leaks, sparking an internal investigation and speculation over who might be the next person Trump forces out of the West Wing.

The White House, which has suffered frequent leaks — at times of notable severity — said in a statement Wednesday it would be a “fireable offense and likely illegal” to leak Trump’s briefing papers to the press, after word emerged that the president had been warned in briefing materials not to congratulate the Russian president on his re-election.

The document had been accessible only to a select group of staffers, two officials said, and had been drafted by aides to National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. They also said there now is an internal probe of the leak but provided no other details. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations. The White House is not formally acknowledging the veracity of the presidential guidance first reported by The Washington Post.

The White House statement earlier Wednesday about a possible firing was an unusual threat and an indication of the seriousness with which the administration is treating the latest breach. Trump and Chief of Staff John Kelly are both angry over the disclosure, officials said, especially because of the small circle of distribution.

Trump has told confidants that be believes the leak was meant to embarrass and undermine him, said White House officials and outside advisers familiar with the president’s thinking but not authorized to publicly discuss private conversations.

Other leaks of classified material — including partial transcripts of Trump’s calls with foreign leaders — have not garnered specific warnings of termination or criminal action. It was not clear whether this week’s document was classified, but it was included with other classified papers.

It also was unclear whether Trump, who prefers oral briefings, had read the talking points prepared by his national security team before Tuesday’s call. McMaster briefed the president by phone before the conversation while Trump was in the White House residence.
posted by murphy slaw at 7:00 AM on March 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


It also was unclear whether Trump, who prefers oral briefings, had read the talking points prepared by his national security team before Tuesday’s call.

Really?
posted by fluttering hellfire at 7:02 AM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


"The document had been accessible only to a select group of staffers, two officials said, and had been drafted by aides to National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster."

Sounds like a precursor to firing McMaster?
posted by Twain Device at 7:03 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


It also was unclear whether Trump, who prefers oral briefings, had read the talking points prepared by his national security team before Tuesday’s call.

How wonderful that they are so confident in their position that they can basically admit that the president is woefully and WILLFULLY unprepared for matters of state. 2018, y'all.
posted by lydhre at 7:04 AM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


angrycat's comment about the ongoing ADAPT protest in DC is a good reminder that activism and civil disobedience works and that ADAPT is a great model of a group that does it right.

(And, angrycat, I totally agree with you about Spitfire. I've met her at Tuesdays with Toomey in Philly and she is the baddest of asses.)
posted by mcduff at 7:04 AM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Twain I think about this all the time. Conservatives just fall in line in order to stay cohesive and on message, it doesn't really matter that they may be unprincipled or lack morality, it's more important to stick together to protect themselves; whereas liberal thinkers inhabit a world where any opinion may have validity, and so a consensus way forward is harder to achieve. It's a struggle.
posted by OHenryPacey at 7:04 AM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Remember when they were saying, during the campaign, that Donald Trump is giving great speeches and drawing big crowds, but he is spending much less money and not using social media as well as Crooked Hillary’s large and highly sophisticated staff. Well, not saying that anymore!

True. Now that they know better, they're saying that Donald Trump was giving terrible speeches, drawing crowds smaller than he claimed, spending more money than declared in dubious ways, and covertly using social media to skew the election. You tell 'em, realDonaldTrump.
posted by rory at 7:05 AM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


> Exactly three things about Merkel are relevant to Drumpf: she's a) a woman who b) is not his type and c) has not said nice things about him. Her existence has no other meaning in Drumpf's world.

>eh, pretty obviously untrue given how often he still mentions Hillary Clinton in tweets and at rallies.


They are both an affront to his manhood. Merkel can be easily ignored, so she is, but Hillary beat him and insulted him on TV, in English, in America, and everyone saw it. She is his mortal enemy and from what we know of Trump he never forgives and has a petty vengeful heart. Remember him towering over her in the debates, "this terrible woman!" An old and non-hot woman who refused to lower her gaze to him and considers herself better than him.

It must be such a sad and painful place, inside his ugly little brain. Ick.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:25 AM on March 22, 2018 [21 favorites]


The White House, which has suffered frequent leaks — at times of notable severity — said in a statement Wednesday it would be a “fireable offense and likely illegal” to leak Trump’s briefing papers to the press, after word emerged that the president had been warned in briefing materials not to congratulate the Russian president on his re-election.

Whoever leaked the briefing papers leaked them quickly and probably with the intention of distancing themselves from Trump's actions. Given that I can't see why the White House believes that firing is a threat rather than an incentive. The White House seems like a particularly toxic workplace. The next three years are likely to involve an unpleasant accumulation of legal bills for staffers and to end unpleasantly. Who wouldn't prefer to be publicly fired for telling the american people that Trump is a Russian stooge over a lifetime of Trump stink?
posted by rdr at 7:25 AM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Now they’re calling mid- to low-level government employees who allegedly ordered politically-inconvenient furniture “the deep state”? This is just straight-up setting the stage for a coup.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:35 AM on March 22, 2018 [33 favorites]


OHenryPacey whereas liberal thinkers inhabit a world where any opinion may have validity, and so a consensus way forward is harder to achieve. It's a struggle.

I think in practice that's both true and untrue.

Liberal thinkers often want to imagine that they inhabit a world where any opinion may have validity, but they don't. Not really. But by trying to imagine that they do, by elevating that notion to the status of principle, we do often cause problems for ourselves.

In the abstract you're right. Much as I rail against it, we've got a big tent mentality because we're more broad minded and tolerant of different opinion (or just less cohesive, take your pick) than conservative groups.

But there **ARE** opinions and ideas we reject unhesitatingly, and often our biggest internal battles are fought over where exactly those lines are drawn and trying to convince people that those lines really do exist because far too often liberal thinkers like to pretend that they don't.

"All Jews should be killed", for example, is an opinion that people on the left would almost universally agree has no validity and would reject any utility in discussing.

We do gatekeep. But unlike the Republicans and conservatives we try desperately to pretend that we don't, and that the big tent is so big it doesn't really exist.

Which leads to articles like the amazingly great one by Greta Christiana on why she's bloody sick of having a "reasonable debate" on abortion.

On the left there are clear, bright, uncrossable, lines. The existence of those lines is often denied most vigorously though, and so people who want to place certain issues inside those lines face a double struggle. They have to convince our liberal thinkers that there are opinions who's validity they reject before they can even begin to argue that the opinion they oppose should be one of them.

"Are women fully people and deserving of all the rights we accord people?" is a question many of us on the left argue shouldn't be up for debate anymore than the question "should black people be enslaved?" is. But since even among liberals women are second class citizens even if they're counted as citizens at all the former is a valid question while the latter is rejected out of hand.

Even the biggest tent needs edges, and ours does have them no matter how much some of us would like to pretend otherwise. I think we'd all be better off if we admitted that liberalism does not welcome everyone and all opinions so we can honestly decide which opinions and people we intend to exclude.
posted by sotonohito at 7:37 AM on March 22, 2018 [41 favorites]


Conservatives just fall in line in order to stay cohesive and on message, it doesn't really matter that they may be unprincipled or lack morality, it's more important to stick together to protect themselves; whereas liberal thinkers inhabit a world where any opinion may have validity, and so a consensus way forward is harder to achieve.

Counteracting that, it's a lot easier to be unified in opposition to the group in power than unified in wielding power. At present the left has an unusually high level of coherence largely because each fresh outrage is something new to fight against, while the right is tearing itself to pieces because, now that they have a chance to do something, they disintegrate into petty squabbles over just what to do, and how, and who gets to sit in the Big Chair while they're doing it.

But, yeah, the baseline coherence is worse among a big tent of equality than in a rigidly authoritarian system. If a liberal political leader was behaving as badly as any of the leadership of Congress and the executive are doing, their own erstwhile cohort would tear them to pieces. That gives us a certain purity of intent and a lesser tendency towards hypocrisy (e.g. how Al Franken's behavior was handled), but it does make the coalition a pretty fragile one even under the best of circumstances.
posted by jackbishop at 7:43 AM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


The Card Cheat Now they’re calling mid- to low-level government employees who allegedly ordered politically-inconvenient furniture “the deep state”?

I think it's been obvious for some time that in addition to being antisemitic code speak for "secret Jewish conspiracy running everything", Trump and company have been using "deep state" to mean "the entire concept of civil service and government bureaucracy".

They've got a very straightforward desire to return to the spoils system where after every presidential election the entire civil service is fired and replaced by cronies of the new President. Trump has often expressed the opinion that the government is, or should be, his and that all the people who work for it do, or should, owe him personal loyalty and allegiance.

And that's the way the US government did work until fairly recently. For much of our nation's history every election involved a total purge of everyone who had worked for the former President's government and their replacement with party or personal loyalists. The result, naturally, was a total nightmare of bureaucratic inefficiency, loss of institutional knowledge, and of course personal and financial instability on the part of government employees which lead to graft and corruption.

But clearly that's what Trump, at the very least, wants. Which is weird since he's also been unwilling to even make nominations for over 200 government positions.

I think, in addition to simple laziness and senility, one reason for this is that Trump likes the idea of everyone having personal loyalty to him, but simply doesn't know enough people to appoint. He hasn't even just started plugging in names the Republican Party gives him because he's fundamentally incapable of trusting anyone enough to take their advice on who to hire.

He wants every government employee to be his own personal pick, but he doesn't have enough sycophants to even fill the entire White House staff, so he's stuck. And like anything else that puts him into a bind, he resolves that problem by ignoring it and pretending that his inability to fill government posts is a strength. If those jobs really needed to be filled he'd have filled them, since he didn't they didn't really need to be filled. QED. He's smarter than all those other Presidents who thought they had to appoint people to those jobs, that's why he didn't.

The combination of a spoils system dream and Trump's desperate need to be personally in control of and command the personal loyalty of every single person he employs has produced the devastation of the government we've seen. Civil service is just not a thing he can comprehend.
posted by sotonohito at 7:48 AM on March 22, 2018 [93 favorites]




Every Trump appointment is going to need to be purged once he’s gone, that’s for sure. So he’ll have wiped out the civil service twice, though the second time it won’t really have been worth a damn.
posted by Artw at 7:56 AM on March 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


I think, in addition to simple laziness and senility, one reason for this is that Trump likes the idea of everyone having personal loyalty to him, but simply doesn't know enough people to appoint. He hasn't even just started plugging in names the Republican Party gives him because he's fundamentally incapable of trusting anyone enough to take their advice on who to hire.

wow, you've really crystallized something that i have been thinking about a lot recently.

this is also why he appointed Ben Carson to HUD. To Trump, HUD is "that department that builds the Projects" -> the Projects are a black thing -> I need to appoint someone black -> Ben Carson is the only black person in my phone.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:05 AM on March 22, 2018 [42 favorites]


summary of hour-long presser given by Alexander Yakovenko, Russian ambassador to UK. Polished performance overall, but tended to fall apart in details and particulars, and Yakovenko couldn't always keep the story straight, in part because there's been a fair bit of tactical obfuscation and contradiction in Russia's responses to the Skripal poisoning affair. Got weirdly jokey at the end, as though his nerves started to get the better of him. Also made Trump's-Mirror-ish claim that UK has been threatening Russian journalists.

Also also made the frankly comical claim that Russia had absolutely nothing to do with Cambridge Analytica, and that his own (photographed!) meeting with Alexander Nix was pure whimisical coincidence because they happened to be attending the same polo match.
posted by halation at 8:05 AM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


The White House, which has suffered frequent leaks

Memba that time someone leaked sensitive intel about ISIS directly to the Russian ambassador while a Russian media photographer filmed it and it burned our intelligence relationships a fair bit? Hoo boy, I hope they finally catch that guy. What a maroon.
posted by petebest at 8:19 AM on March 22, 2018 [63 favorites]


The House advanced the Omnibus bill, amidst some chaos...

The Hill:
The gavel came down abruptly as soon as the "yes" tally hit 211, the magic number needed to clinch a majority. Some Democrats appeared to be still trying to vote, with some voices yelling "one more vote."

A CSPAN video showed that nine Democrats and three Republicans had not voted when the gavel came down. It wasn't immediately clear how many of those members were absent from the House on Thursday.

The measure faced pushback from House conservatives, who argued they were not provided enough time to review the 2,232-page measure, which was only released last night.

In the end, 25 Republicans voted against the measure — an unusually high number. Boos and catcalls could be heard as the gavel came down.

posted by delfin at 8:19 AM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


this is also why he appointed Ben Carson to HUD. To Trump, HUD is "that department that builds the Projects" -> the Projects are a black thing -> I need to appoint someone black -> Ben Carson is the only black person in my phone.

Also highlights his racism. The obvious cabinet appointment for a physician would be Health and Human Services. You'd appoint him to HUD only if you see him just as a generic black person, not as a surgeon.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:21 AM on March 22, 2018 [27 favorites]




BTW, lost amidst this table discussion is a story from March 8 alleging that Zinke replaced three sets of office doors in his building for the low, low cost of $139k.

I'm sure this will get as much coverage...
posted by mosk at 8:31 AM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


Note that Dowd was the one who had to clarify that he was only speaking for himself when he said it was time for Trump to wind up the investigation.

And he's probably the best/least insane lawyer that Trump had left.

not enough popcorn in the world
posted by murphy slaw at 8:33 AM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


sotonohito: "And that's the way the US government did work until fairly recently. "

The Pendleton Act was passed in 1883, so I don't know that I'd say *recently*.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:36 AM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


re: John Dowd resigning
I guess in the Three Stooges analogy time scale for his lawyers, we are now post-Shemp?
posted by rc3spencer at 8:37 AM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Note that Dowd was the one who had to clarify that he was only speaking for himself when he said it was time for Trump to wind up the investigation.

Also the one who jumped in and claimed he wrote the Trump tweet about firing Flynn that was pretty much overt obstruction of justice.
@realDonaldTrump: I had to fire General Flynn because he lied to the Vice President and the FBI. He has pled guilty to those lies. It is a shame because his actions during the transition were lawful. There was nothing to hide!
posted by chris24 at 8:37 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Dowd saw the writing on the wall; if Trump is resorting to bringing in card-carrying fruit loops like diGenova as his legal representatives, nothing good can come of staying on board.
posted by delfin at 8:38 AM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Something else good in the omnibus: language blocking the proposed Labor Dept rulemaking that would allow employers to steal tips from workers.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:38 AM on March 22, 2018 [30 favorites]


So at least we know why 45's been flying the 'hiring new lawyer' kite. (That's the one in the trees, up there, being eaten by squirrels.)

Does that mean that 45's only way out now is to fire Mueller, though? Even he will know he can't go into the investigation with no effective legal help, and presuming Dowd was in charge of the 'negotiations' (further assuming there was any such thing), Mueller can only now say 'Be interviewed voluntarily, or get served'.

This could bring things to the boil pretty swiftly.
posted by Devonian at 8:39 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


I wonder how much research exists in, like, Dunning-Kruger by proxy. I have to assume that when the president's lawyer quits (specifically on on the basis that the man doesn't listen to him), most of his fans are overjoyed, at the level of "Ha! Now the Donald can really show them all!"

Whereas if Obama were somehow in a legal wrangle with birthers, and then his own counsel quit, his supporters would naturally be freaked out on his behalf... and Obama is an expert lawyer.

Fingers crossed for "Trump chooses to represent himself just as soon as he learns that's something you can do"
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:39 AM on March 22, 2018 [26 favorites]


I've been struggling with how to conceptualize all these events. A dumpster fire is insufficiently complex and bewildering, a house of cards resolves too quickly.

But now I understand. It's a house of dumpster fires. All stacked in an insane pyriamid inferno.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 8:41 AM on March 22, 2018 [63 favorites]


If you are notorious for not paying your legal team (and other people who work for you), AND you won't take their advice, big f'n surprise they get fed up and leave. Play shitty games, win shitty prizes, etc. The only thing that seems to be keeping Trump and his merry crew from going into free-fall is the collusion of Congressional Republicans, and certain of the media. All the more reason to turn out for a 2018 Blue Wave.

Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act: the assassination of President James Garfield by a disgruntled office-seeker (or at least he thought he was) helped spur this reform.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:42 AM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Tucker Carlson invites a former sniper to attack March for Our Lives protests

As much as I appreciate what Media Matters does in terms of cataloguing the right's talking points and calling out extremism, I can't help but feel that their choice of headline wording is needlessly sensationalistic and undermines their message here.

Based on that, my first assumption was that Carlson had made some kind of ill-considered joke about wanting his guest to shoot protesters, but a viewing of the actual video reveals nothing more than the usual anti-gun control rhetoric. Conservatives can rightly point to this as baseless fear-mongering by liberals and progressives, and it's really disappointing.
posted by Strange Interlude at 8:44 AM on March 22, 2018 [63 favorites]


Could Trump "throw" the negotiations, like a fixed boxing match? And that's why he pushed aside the State Department and insisted on a face-to-face (instead of actual diplomats who would have taken forever and given up far fewer/small concessions)? Something like this:

1. Trump meets with Kim about nukes.
2. Kim poses for photos, shakes Trump's hand, refuses to disarm.
3. In keeping with his role as the consummate deal-maker, Trump offers something stupid, like "We'll retire 50% of our warheads if you do the same."
4. Putin smiles thinly as he watches his puppet dance.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:45 AM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Frankly, we'd all be better off if the US had 50% fewer nuclear weapons.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:50 AM on March 22, 2018 [34 favorites]


@kylegriffen: .@JuliaEAinsley just reported on MSNBC that, according to two sources close to Trump's legal team, Trump is interested in bringing back his previous lawyer Marc Kasowitz (who was removed from the team last summer).

Did The Apprentice bring back fired characters?
posted by zachlipton at 8:50 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Stopped Clock Jennifer Rubin on the spending deal:

"Thanks to his willingness to let Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, senior adviser Stephen Miller and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) lead him around by the nose and nix a DACA-for-the-wall deal, Trump will not get the wall he constantly promises to his anti-immigrant base. For someone who has the majorities in both houses of Congress, this negotiation reflects a shocking level of ineptitude on the president’s part. You wonder when he will start 'winning.'"
posted by jgirl at 8:51 AM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


Did The Apprentice bring back fired characters?

Omarosa! (on a subsequent season of Celebrity Apprentice)
posted by murphy slaw at 8:52 AM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


cjelli: what seems to have happened is that Trump was telling Dowd that he would be following his advice and then Trump started soliciting other lawyers without informing Dowd

The old "Dad said no so I'll ask Mom" trick, a classic
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:54 AM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


@ElizLanders: more news! @POTUS has decided that the EU, Argentina, Australia, Brazil & South Korea will be exempt from the steel and aluminum tariffs, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer just told a Senate committee.
posted by zachlipton at 8:58 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


how many iterations of this are we going to go through until Trump just says "CHINA, OKAY? IT'S JUST CHINA"
posted by murphy slaw at 9:00 AM on March 22, 2018 [41 favorites]


Trump is interested in bringing back his previous lawyer Marc Kasowitz (who was removed from the team last summer).

You'll remember that a week before he was let go last summer, Kasowitz went nuts and sent a stranger multiple profanity and violence filled emails. ‘Watch Your Back, Bitch’
posted by chris24 at 9:01 AM on March 22, 2018 [31 favorites]


Regarding the leak about the national security briefing about the Russian election response, two thoughts:

1. How many people who are involved in those assessments have sworn to uphold the Constitution and defend it against enemies foreign and domestic? It's remarkable how many conservative stalwarts from within government and without are sounding the alarm about the president (recall even that loathsome wing nut from FOX drew the line.) My bet is that there are at least a few people in or near the inner circle who have taken that oath, take it seriously, and are staying in specifically to surface this egregiousness as a way to aid that defense. Hard to conceptualize actual patriotic heroes in the midst of that dumpster fire, but hope can spring eternal.

2. Of course 45 prefers oral briefings--less evidence. But related to the first point, that's exactly why these briefings and advice are written and will continue to be written.
posted by Sublimity at 9:04 AM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Welp. Cambridge Analytica: search of London HQ delayed by wait for warrant

This gets fishier and fishier.
posted by Artw at 9:07 AM on March 22, 2018 [49 favorites]


Hegel remarks somewhere that all these crazy assholes appear, as it were, twice: the first time as Scaramucci, the second time as Kasowitz.
posted by Mocata at 9:11 AM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


My bet is that there are at least a few people in or near the inner circle who have taken that oath, take it seriously, and are staying in specifically to surface this egregiousness as a way to aid that defense. Hard to conceptualize actual patriotic heroes in the midst of that dumpster fire, but hope can spring eternal.

Mattis, probably McMaster.

Not Kelly. He’s in it for the Fascism.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:12 AM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Mattis went ahead and commuted war crimes on day one so I have no idea why people defend him so.
posted by Artw at 9:20 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


I don't think this got posted yet, and I find it very alarming as someone who works with public records issues (thankfully, not in the federal sector).

Politico: Judge dismisses lawsuit on Trump aides' use of encrypted apps

"While Cooper noted that “the use of automatically-disappearing text messages to conduct White House business would almost certainly run afoul of the Presidential Records Act,” he wrote in his 21-page ruling that the court could not settle the matter since the case lacked “a valid cause of action to proceed to the merits.”"
posted by mostly vowels at 9:24 AM on March 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


how many iterations of this are we going to go through until Trump just says "CHINA, OKAY? IT'S JUST CHINA"

As you were saying... Trump moves to crack down on China trade with $50 billion in tariffs on imported products
posted by zachlipton at 9:26 AM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


I've been struggling with how to conceptualize all these events.
Yesterday I was speaking with my daughter about the implications of CamAnalys and the Facebook collusion with regard to Trump and Brexit. I came up with, it's like we live in a safeish, comfortableish house that definitely shelters us from the elements, even those of us in the basement, with no windows, and in the attic, where the heating system doesn't reach. The lifts don't go all the way up the building but workable staircases do, and we all have water and electricity piped in. So that house is western government (perhaps more accurately it's western European government, which comes with a social safety net) and the structural support of that house is the democratic voting system. Now someone has taken a big swing at that house with a wrecking ball and cracked it top to bottom in several places, plaster falling off, windows broken, roof leaking, ominous creaking, gas mains and power lines are looking worrying. The stage we're at, we can start fixing it, difficult dangerous very hard work that needs a thorough approach, a fine sense of detail, an ability to balance equally urgent priorities and a true concern for justice and basic human rights; or we can run around flapping, trying to preserve a lost status quo without recognising the building's been structurally compromised, and then the whole thing ends in collapse, ruin and death. Death of the vulnerable first, as always.
posted by glasseyes at 9:31 AM on March 22, 2018 [44 favorites]


Welp. Cambridge Analytica: search of London HQ delayed by wait for warrant

This gets fishier and fishier.


Maybe if they switched from Top Stories to Most Recent things would go faster.

(add ?sk=h_chr to the end of the URL)
posted by srboisvert at 9:38 AM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Late to the party but, I believe that Trump tries to ignore Merkel because he is scared of her. Right now, she is the de facto leader of the free world, and she doesn't hide her contempt for him for a minute. I wonder what she hears in her daily briefings? And that made me think: I wonder what information the US is not getting because of Trump these days.

About the leaks: Trump or his family are the leakers, all the time.

glasseyes, that was a powerful and bleak image. This morning I dreamt I was in a post-apocalyptic version of here. There were ruins everywhere, and people struggling to find dry land and food. Suddenly I came upon a small place with a strangely homey atmosphere where people could sit down for a while and catch a breath, and when the inhabitants came to trust the group I was with, they let us in through a very small corridor filled with debris and tools into a huge hall filled with stuff made of paper. Miniature furniture, art, poems, food, plants all amazing in detail and cut out of paper, as if they had tried to recreate all the good stuff in the world. Before the alarm clock rang, I thought "there's still nothing to eat here".
posted by mumimor at 9:55 AM on March 22, 2018 [37 favorites]


if trump does axe mcmaster and try to install bolton as NSA, the optics just got a bit worse:

NPR: John Bolton's Curious Appearance In A Russian Gun Rights Video
Former U.N. ambassador John Bolton recorded a video used by the Russian gun rights group The Right to Bear Arms in 2013 to encourage the Russian government to loosen gun laws.

The episode, which has not been previously reported, illustrates the common cause that Russian and American gun rights groups were forming in the years leading up to the 2016 election through former National Rifle Association president David Keene. Keene appointed Bolton to the NRA's international affairs subcommittee in 2011.

Russian politician Alexander Torshin helped establish The Right to Bear Arms and cultivate ties with American gun rights groups including the NRA. As a Putin ally, Torshin served as the deputy speaker of Russia's parliament for more than a decade, and also spent time on Russia's National Anti-Terrorism Committee, a state body that includes the director of Russia's internal security service.

The Bolton video appears to be another plank in a bridge built by Russia to conservative political organizations inside the United States. It's unclear why Russian leaders wanted to curry favor with the NRA, but Torshin and Keene appeared to have developed close ties over in the years prior to the 2016 election.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:56 AM on March 22, 2018 [37 favorites]


It's unclear why Russian leaders wanted to curry favor with the NRA

We may have a couple of theories on this...
posted by azpenguin at 10:00 AM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]




Trumpcast: "First of all I'm so excited for Stephen Merchant to play Alexander Nix in the movie, in the Aaron Sorkin movie about this 'cause they have this uncanny resemblance."

Oh my God. Thank God. That was juuuust below my conscious recognition and causing me much cognitive dissonance. I couldn't understand why I felt disturbing affinity for this monstrous Fauntleroy A-hole. Now I understand, and I'm so relieved.
posted by Don Pepino at 10:19 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


The fourth was me. Which was embarrassing since I’m not a lawyer and then someone on their end realized it was a misdial and I tried to hang up but they were like, “you know, this isn’t necessarily a problem. Do you have a necktie?” Even after I told them I wasn’t in DC they were pretty adamant this could still work...
posted by From Bklyn at 10:24 AM on March 22, 2018 [85 favorites]


WaPo Daily 202: Winners and losers in the spending bill

At least, the ones the article author [James Hohmann] got to so far while reading the thing. Noteworthy winners include the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, National Endowment for the Arts and National Endowment for the Humanities, who all survived calls for closing them down. Losers include:
The House Freedom Caucus: The group of three dozen hard-line conservatives got rolled, as did Mick Mulvaney, the OMB director who used to be a member and took the lead in crafting the budget proposal Trump unveiled last month. Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), chairman of the Freedom Caucus, decried the deal because it funds Planned Parenthood, does not defund “sanctuary cities” and expands the national debt. He’s also mad that it does not “really” include money for the wall, and he doesn’t like stronger background checks for gun buyers. Many of the members in his caucus will vote no, but leadership does not need their votes. Meadows has Trump’s ear, but this again exposes the limits of his influence.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:25 AM on March 22, 2018 [21 favorites]


So wait. Is this spending bill a positive thing?
posted by Twain Device at 10:31 AM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


Wisconsin judge rules that state must hold special elections for two vacant legislature seats. Gov Walker was trying to skip holding them after a big upset by Dems in an earlier special.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:34 AM on March 22, 2018 [74 favorites]


I'm assuming the spending bill is a land of contrasts. It funds the government, and financially supports things Democrats like, pisses off the Freedom Caucus, but doesn't do poop for resolving DACA. There is also some back and forth about ACA fixes and preventing insurers from covering abortions, but I'm not sure how that shook out in this version.
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 10:37 AM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


Is this spending bill a positive thing?

Cautiously optimistic, but I'm sure there's still some shit in the sandwich. Such is politicking.

He’s also mad that it does not “really” include money for the wall

Hoping against hope, I'd be really surprised (and it would say that Trump has more power than I think he has) if there was ever anything passed by Congress that was explicitly and plainly "$X to build border wall." I think the legislative process is complex enough that something or someone will always be able to push a straight-up line-item off any bill, though they could get money for it by hiding it under different verbiage, which I'm sure is what will happen.
posted by rhizome at 10:38 AM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


So wait. Is this spending bill a positive thing?

it's a win insofar as it doesn't resemble the insane "budget" that the administration prepared at all.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:38 AM on March 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


Welp. Cambridge Analytica: search of London HQ delayed by wait for warrant

This gets fishier and fishier.


Presumably the Conservatives are slow-walking the investigation as best they can because CA has done all sorts of work for the Conservatives, just as they have for Trump and other Republicans. The statement by the judge on Monday that they were preparing a warrant, which otherwise seems like dumb thing to say publicly, may be part of that maneuvering, since a common gambit is to publicly state/leak a plan in order to pressure those who are trying to block it to release their block. That behind-the-scenes combat seems to still be going on, as various judges publicly declare a belated timeline, Hancock et al are forced to defend the slow pace, etc. In the meantime the crates vanishing from the offices remain unaccounted for, and some very computer-savvy folks who have known for years that they truck in illegal information have plenty of time to execute their fail-safes and delete plenty of incriminating material. Which of course is the goal, since I imagine they have more than enough to bring down the Conservatives if it all got out.
posted by chortly at 10:44 AM on March 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


Can we call them CamAn if we need an abbreviation? I live in CA, and plenty of MeFites live in the other CA, and that's already enough abbreviations to be confusing.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:48 AM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


In the meantime the crates vanishing from the offices remain unaccounted for, and some very computer-savvy folks who have known for years that they truck in illegal information have plenty of time to execute their fail-safes and delete plenty of incriminating material. Which of course is the goal, since I imagine they have more than enough to bring down the Conservatives if it all got out.

Imagine prosecutors announcing publicly that they were intending to raid a major drug cartel, but couldn’t find a judge anywhere, for going on three days. Meanwhile there’s videos on the evening news of burly goons with machine guns loading bags and bags of white powder into boxes.

This is the exact same thing.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:50 AM on March 22, 2018 [44 favorites]


CambrAn! Organic machinations never evilled so good! Part of this complete collusion.
posted by petebest at 10:50 AM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Caitlin MacNeal at TPM reports that Trump Says He ‘Would Like To’ Talk To Mueller’s Team
President Donald Trump on Thursday affirmed that he would still like to speak with special counsel Robert Mueller’s team for the Russia investigation.

“Yes. I would like to,” Trump told reporters at the White House when asked if he would talk to Mueller
, according to a White House pool report.

Trump has said before that he would like to talk to the special counsel’s investigators. In January, he said that he wanted to talk to Mueller’s team as soon as possible and that he would do so “under oath.”
I have to wonder if John Dowd's recent departure has to do with his former client being incredibly insistent on speaking to Mueller under oath. Duder can't keep his story straight for five minutes, and Down must know it would be a huge disaster to have the Jackass testifying.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:54 AM on March 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


I have to wonder if John Dowd's recent departure has to do with his former client being incredibly insistent on speaking to Mueller under oath. Duder can't keep his story straight for five minutes, and Down must know it would be a huge disaster to have the Jackass testifying.

yes, it's a primary reason. NYT:
The president has in recent days begun publicly assailing Mr. Mueller, a shift in tone that appears to be born of Mr. Trump’s concern that the investigation is bearing down on him more directly. He has also insisted he should sit for an interview with the special counsel’s office, even though Mr. Dowd believed it was a bad idea.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:56 AM on March 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


WaPo has a summary of the spending bill here.

There are a couple of "whew!" items:

Religion and politics: The federal ban on tax-exempt churches engaging in political activity, known as the Johnson Amendment, will continue, despite attempts by Trump and GOP lawmakers to rescind it.

Restaurant tips: In December, the Labor Department proposed a rule that would allow employers such as restaurant owners to “pool” their employees’ tips and redistribute them as they saw fit — including, potentially, to themselves. That generated a bipartisan outcry, and the bill spells out explicitly in law that tip pooling is not permitted: “An employer may not keep tips received by its employees for any purposes, including allowing managers or supervisors to keep any portion of employees’ tips, regardless of whether or not the employer takes a tip credit.”

Arts: Federal funding for the arts goes up, despite GOP attempts to slash it. The National Endowments for the Arts and Humanities will see funding climb to $152.8 million each, a $3 million increase over the last fiscal year. Trump proposed eliminating the endowments. The National Gallery of Art gets $165.9 million, a $1.04 million jump in funding. The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts will receive $40.5 million, which is $4 million more than the last fiscal year.
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:59 AM on March 22, 2018 [43 favorites]


=== LEVITY BREAK ===

Page 33 of this PDF of this Federal Election Commission Notice of Proposed Rulemaking re Internet Communication Disclaimers and the Definition of “Public Communication”.

=== LEVITY OVER, THANK YOU ===
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:00 AM on March 22, 2018 [88 favorites]


GODDAMMIT, FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION
posted by Faint of Butt at 11:07 AM on March 22, 2018 [26 favorites]


OK, I seriously wasn't expecting that on a .gov hosted PDF.
posted by MysticMCJ at 11:08 AM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


I... was caught unawares. That's well done.
posted by RolandOfEld at 11:10 AM on March 22, 2018 [21 favorites]


Regarding the FEC link: I don't get it. Is it the link to the Youtube video? Youtube is blocked at my workplace.
posted by Green With You at 11:12 AM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Is it the link to the Youtube video?

It's a link to Rick Astley - Never Gonna Give You Up
posted by Mister Fabulous at 11:14 AM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


Green With You Not just "a" youtube video, it's Rick Asterly's Never Gonna Give You Up.

Yes, the FCC has just rickrolled anyone reading that official, real, government document.
posted by sotonohito at 11:24 AM on March 22, 2018 [24 favorites]


Stopped Clock Jennifer Rubin on the spending deal

At some point, can we promote her to Clock Whose Battery Has Been Replaced? I think Trump might have fixed her.
posted by saturday_morning at 11:28 AM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


The FEC Rickrolled America. I guess when you live in the stupidest timeline, sometimes it's funny.

Anyhoo, this budget seems not terrible and I remain confused because the "hope" button on my Dashboard of Emotions (ala Inside Out) is locked down with a sign NOT AVAILABLE TILL AFTER 2018 ELECTIONS AT THE EARLIEST. I'm going to need more evidence (and I guess something actually passed) before I take down that sign.
posted by emjaybee at 11:28 AM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


Can we call them CamAn if we need an abbreviation? I live in CA, and plenty of MeFites live in the other CA, and that's already enough abbreviations to be confusing.

We may need a meta on this because it seems to repeatedly come up. "CA" is the accepted abbreviation by every major media organization, both because it is Cambridge Analytica's actual official abbreviated name, and because in context is it almost never actually confusing which entity CA refers to. If MF can handle "Grauniad" or IRA/IRA ambiguities, we can probably handle CA.
posted by chortly at 11:31 AM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Trump: Remember when they were saying, during the campaign, that Donald Trump is giving great speeches and drawing big crowds, but he is spending much less money and not using social media as well as Crooked Hillary’s large and highly sophisticated staff. Well, not saying that anymore!

UK comic Bob Monkhouse (RIP): "When I said I was going to become a comedian, they all laughed. Well, they're not laughing now, are they?"
posted by msalt at 11:32 AM on March 22, 2018 [63 favorites]


Rickroll—a hack?
posted by Melismata at 11:33 AM on March 22, 2018


Just Ajit Pai trying to be one of the cool kids while he destroys any semblance of an open internet.
posted by PenDevil at 11:35 AM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Oh thank Dog it wasn't goatse.cx.
posted by notyou at 11:35 AM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


Re: the Budget. This budget also fully funds WFIRST and several earth science missions at NASA that were zeroed out in the president's budget. This is a good thing for me because it means I still have a job.
posted by runcibleshaw at 11:35 AM on March 22, 2018 [68 favorites]


PenDevil: "Just Ajit Pai trying to be one of the cool kids while he destroys any semblance of an open internet."

Pai is at the FCC. This is the FEC.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:39 AM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


At some point, can we promote her to Clock Whose Battery Has Been Replaced? I think Trump might have fixed her.

eh, her analysis of Trump's failure to get what he wants is cogent, but she describes the big ramp in military spending as "necessary" and makes lots of deficit-hawk screeches. she's still a republican, she's just not insane.

it's a measure of the times that we consider republicans to be on our side as long as they're not obviously nuts or compromised by a foreign power.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:44 AM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


AP: Mueller Examining Cambridge Analytica, Trump Campaign Ties
Special counsel Robert Mueller is scrutinizing the connections between President Donald Trump’s campaign and the data mining firm Cambridge Analytica, which has come under fierce criticism over reports that it swiped the data of more than 50 million Facebook users to sway elections.

Mueller’s investigators have asked former campaign officials about the Trump campaign’s data operations, particularly about how it collected and utilized voter data in battleground states, according to a person with direct knowledge of the line of inquiry but not authorized to discuss it publicly.

The investigators have also asked some of Trump’s data team, which included analysts at the Republican National Committee, about its relationship with Cambridge Analytica, according to two former campaign officials. The campaign paid the firm just under $6 million for its work in 2016, according to federal records.
The question is how recent this line of inquiry is—Mueller's team was questioning RNC staff about digital operations back in December, for instance.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:05 PM on March 22, 2018 [28 favorites]


she describes the big ramp in military spending as "necessary" and makes lots of deficit-hawk screeches

I honestly don't know how you can do both of those things. You can reduce the deficit, or you can pour money into the military. Pick one. This just annoys me so much.
posted by me & my monkey at 12:17 PM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Bloomberg White House Correspondent @JenniferJacobs -
Asked what he would tell his 25-year-old self, Trump, at an event for millennial voters, says:

"Don't run for president.”
posted by murphy slaw at 12:19 PM on March 22, 2018 [86 favorites]


"The measure faced pushback from House conservatives, who argued they were not provided enough time to review the 2,232-page measure, which was only released last night."

This is something that should get broad bipartisan support to just stop. It never seems like good legislation comes from a lack of review. A 1 day per hundred pages minimum review time or similar should be legislated. Look at how badly some of the GOP got burned with the tax bill because of this foolishness.
posted by Mitheral at 12:20 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Also, mandates that the Congressional Research Service publish reports online, which will greatly improve access.

If you're interested, here's a little more detail on this and the history of it. The first bill seeking to do this was twenty years ago, from the 105th congress, introduced by Leahy and McCain.
posted by phearlez at 12:21 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Frankly, I think most of us would be warning our twenty-five-year-old selves about Trump running for president
posted by angrycat at 12:22 PM on March 22, 2018 [65 favorites]


About the leaks: Trump or his family are the leakers, all the time.

Yeah, every time there's a leak I just assume the leakers are everyone involved, with the possible exception of Trump.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:23 PM on March 22, 2018


Asked what he would tell his 25-year-old self, Trump, at an event for millennial voters, says:

"Don't run for president.”


The fact that Trump is clearly completely miserable is a very very small consolation. But I'll take anything at this point.
posted by lydhre at 12:32 PM on March 22, 2018 [95 favorites]


The Trump administration pushed back very hard at Michael Wolff's assertion that Trump Didn't Want To Be President. I guess Trump didn't get the memo.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:37 PM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


Trump wanted to be head of state but not head of government. Nobody told him it was the same thing under our system I guess.
posted by Justinian at 12:39 PM on March 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


Michael Wolff was right about a LOT of things. Or, possibly more likely, Bannon was. The book didn't spare him, but he came out looking the least colluded, and we're starting to see that particular worm turn.
posted by petebest at 12:47 PM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Nah, he wanted all the graft and influence peddling that he could suck up as a viable candidate for President without actually becoming President. Like always he'd prefer to be compensated for promises without actually having to follow through.

You could see the "OH Fuck, what have I done" on his face on election night.
posted by Mitheral at 12:50 PM on March 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


A gunrights group (not the NRA) posted HFC leader Mark Meadows’ personal cell phone number online over the minuscule Fix NICS amendment to the omnibus. Meadows had already voted no.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:50 PM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]




*pops in, looks at the thread*

Hrm, I wonder... *looks at the Dow*

Huh. Only a 700 point drop right now.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 12:58 PM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


UPDATE: 4 defense attorneys at different large law firms have been approached to join Trump's legal defense team in recent weeks. All 4 turned him down.

I wonder how many of these were told that they would be working for free for the publicity and that they'd be mowing the White House lawn.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:00 PM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


John Bolton seen entering West Wing. Edited version
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:02 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


I've popped in a couple times when the news was clutching its pearls over 300 points moves in the market, pointing out that at 25k+ levels that can be random noise and 1.2% moves happen fairly often.

3% moves are not random noise. This one matters and is absolutely a reaction to Trump potentially cratering Obama's economy. Obama handed Trump the best non-bubble economy in decades and he's gonna shit all over it. F- would not buy again.
posted by Justinian at 1:03 PM on March 22, 2018 [58 favorites]


Mitheral: You could see the "OH Fuck, what have I done" on his face on election night.

Truly. Here's a picture of the moment he won. Trump looks like he's about to puke. The look of triumph on Don Jr's dumbass face makes it obvious that wasn't in on the plan to lose.
posted by joedan at 1:05 PM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


Wait why is the stock market tanking? Because of a spending bill, or trade war stuff?
posted by thelonius at 1:06 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Trade war stuff and Facebook/Cambridge Analytica are being blamed. The former for the Dow, the latter for the NASDAQ.
posted by JimInLoganSquare at 1:08 PM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Who knows, if the Senate gets its act together and the spending bill gets put on Trump's desk, that's the kind of good news that often drives markets back up. But it's in the category of "not so much good, as not disastrous" news, so I'm not counting any chickens.
posted by JimInLoganSquare at 1:15 PM on March 22, 2018


Maybe it’s more of a correction from the bubbliciously optimistic “Hey everybody, we’ve got ourselves a laissez-faire capitalist in the White House! Let’s get naked!” to an “Oh. Oh Jesus no. Oh dear Lord. He did wh— Why would he — Oh God!” that’ll bring it all the way back down.
posted by Sys Rq at 1:16 PM on March 22, 2018 [30 favorites]


And we'll never know if Trump moved his investments to Treasuries or something that's getting a bounce from the tariffs move, because the annual financial disclosure reporting doesn't go into anywhere near enough detail.
posted by martin q blank at 1:19 PM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


From the ever-reliable Daniel Dale, our big orange boy deflates TPUSA's pet issue of an anti-conservative free speech crisis on college campuses, and Charlie Kirk meekly goes along with him.
posted by Existential Dread at 1:23 PM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


she's still a republican, she's just not insane.

I am reminded of a former friend of mine, who was a Reagan conservative in his youth and a libertarian Randroid when I met him. His saving grace was that he had zero tolerance for the religious-right types who wanted to drag America kicking and screaming back to Jesus, but he bought into most of the rest of the program.

Over the next ten years or so, we got to be good friends and had a lot of political discussions. He watched the Republicans devolve into lizard forms and voted third party one year for President, then consistently Democratic after that. I told him that I would know when the Republican Party had edged back into relative reasonableness because it would mean that _he and I could argue about politics again_ instead of agreeing 90% of the time, and that he had found actual Republicans with whom he could identify again.

That was in the mid-to-late 1990s. I wonder what he makes of the current batch.
posted by delfin at 1:28 PM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


I once read (maybe even here) a quip that all of the Hillary obsession, even post-victory, makes much more sense when you imagine that what he really wanted was to keep trolling and starting shit on Twitter and bitching that the vote was rigged etc, after he lost. He still tries to do it as the winner, but obviously it goes very different.
posted by nakedmolerats at 1:35 PM on March 22, 2018 [26 favorites]


our big orange boy deflates TPUSA's pet issue of an anti-conservative free speech crisis on college campuses,

So Trump is saner on this than some left and moderate pundits. (Hi Jonathan Chait!)
posted by chris24 at 1:38 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Like guns, I suspect this is one of those things where he’s stumbled into common sense out of lazily never bothering to learn the right wing talking points and he will course correct shortly.

Funny though.
posted by Artw at 1:40 PM on March 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


From the ever-reliable Daniel Dale, our big orange boy deflates TPUSA's pet issue of an anti-conservative free speech crisis on college campuses, and Charlie Kirk meekly goes along with him.

This is truly, truly spectacular. "Are you saying that I'm so unpopular on college campuses that there's a crisis of people being abused for being Trumpers? UNPOSSIBLE! I'm popular pretty much everywhere! It's fine! Next question!"

This is one of the few stopped clock moments Trump has ever had. He's absolutely right that it is just a few highly overblown incidents and the average college campus is pretty bored by this argument just in general.
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:42 PM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


eh, he's right for the wrong reasons here, it seems like his claim is that he's beloved in the Real American colleges in the Midwest and it's just a couple crazy hippie colleges probably in California or whatever that have a problem with him.

I don't think he understood the question.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:42 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Since "free speech in crisis" is precisely the sort of thing Fox News uses to fill airtime when there's a new indictment or whatever, I think it's possible that caused him narcissistic injury, and an adviser reassured him by (accurately!) calling it "overblown", so that's where he got the word. It's a stopped clock at AM when the real time is PM, and I'll take the popcorn.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:55 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


I'm lost in the barrage of information regarding Trump, GOP, Russia, DeVos, Prince, Putin, Facebook, Twitter, IRA, RT, CA, Magnitsky, Page, Sater, etc., etc., etc. My impression is that the only link only hinted at but not publicly proven to date is CA <> Russia. Is that right? And once that is proven, collusion between Trump and Russia is a lock?
posted by Mental Wimp at 1:58 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


If a direct CA/Russia link was proven (all the evidence is circumstantial at the moment), it would be proof of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Trump himself might still have deniability by throwing Bannon or other campaign staffers under the bus.
posted by murphy slaw at 2:02 PM on March 22, 2018


I don't think he understood the question.

I hestitate to say he ever understands anything, but in general he's constitutionally incapable of thinking of himself as unpopular. Think of how many times he's made up out of thin air a claim that a political opponent or head of state who clearly thinks he's a moron "said very nice things about me" (including, today, Conor Lamb).
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:04 PM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


My impression is that the only link only hinted at but not publicly proven to date is CA <> Russia. Is that right? And once that is proven, collusion between Trump and Russia is a lock?

Kinda on the collusion; CA appears to have been run by an international cabal of fascists. What it definitely is is another vector of election ratfucketeering, featuring a whole lot of outside campaign expenditure coordinated from within the campaign, which is not allowed.
posted by notyou at 2:06 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Collusion between Trump and Russia became publicly undeniable last summer, when Don Jr tweeted out his email and the Veselnitskaya meeting happened, quote, as "part of Russia and its government’s support for Mr. Trump". The only defense they have to that one is an absurd claim that Dad was somehow out of the loop on that (plus conspiracy-theory noises that she was allowed in the country specifically to entrap the Trumps, or something, plus "she didn't provide dirt anyway").
posted by InTheYear2017 at 2:07 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Kellyanne Conway weighs in on the opioid crisis: it wouldn't be so bad if The Kids Today weren't so fastidious about their diets.
On our college campuses, your folks are reading the labels, won’t put any sugar in their body, they don’t eat carbs anymore, and they’re very, very fastidious about what goes into their body — and then you buy a street drug for $5 or $10 and it’s laced with fentanyl, and that’s it.
posted by hanov3r at 2:08 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


she's arguing that people on dope are reading the heroin labels and are like 'no fetanyl! no problem!'

The last heroin baggie I saw, many a year ago, had a picture of a rattlesnake on it. That was the label.

Why am I arguing with Kellyanne Conway, Jesus
posted by angrycat at 2:14 PM on March 22, 2018 [52 favorites]


Pence is in New Hampshire today talking with republicans and praising Governor Sununu. He said something to the effect of "There is a lot of great things happening in America and I want to challenge you to go tell somebody about it. I truly believe the greatest force in America is neighbors telling neighbors." I truly cannot wait until someone knocks on my door to tell me the Good News about MAGA.
posted by schoolgirl report at 2:17 PM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


Ironically, Conway is unintentionally making one of the standard arguments for safe injection sites.
posted by mosk at 2:19 PM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


Presumably she's arguing for all drugs to be legalized, regulated, and have stringent quality-control standards and labelling practices, and admitting that the chemicals that make up a bottle of Dr. Pepper are not inherently more moral than the chemicals that make up a hit of ecstasy.

....right?
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:21 PM on March 22, 2018 [30 favorites]


it starts with neighbors telling neighbors but then they tell another neighbor and by the time it gets to your neighborhood everyone is asking what "MALT ARMENIA GRAPE BEGIN" means
posted by murphy slaw at 2:21 PM on March 22, 2018 [43 favorites]


My impression is that the only link only hinted at but not publicly proven to date is CA <> Russia

My take:
It is publicly known that consultants working for the Trump campaign [Cambridge Analytica] offered to help WikiLeaks sort through the emails taken by Russian hackers from the DNC servers.
...
Given the close links between the Trump campaign and Cambridge Analytica, there is not a clear distinction between Cambridge Analytica offering to help sort through hacked emails for distribution, and the Trump campaign offering to do so. That offer, then, appears to be evidence of attempted collusion brokered through closely linked intermediaries between Russia and the Trump campaign. At the very least, Cambridge Analytica seems to have been attempting to take advantage of Russian efforts.

Cambridge Analytica also had some pre-existing links to Russia. They gave briefings on their political work to Moscow firm Lukoil, and the researcher who developed the crucial algorithm worked for St Petersburg university. They also left sensitive voter-targeting algorithms unprotected online, where it could be accessed by anyone including foreign agents.
You can click through for a little more background information and links to sources. There's a link from "seems to have been attempting" to this Just Security piece by Justin Hendrix which gets into the question in a little more depth.
But you don’t have to believe that there were other active forms of collusion to see a connection between Russian disinformation, Cambridge Analytica and the Trump campaign. It’s all too possible it was just a matter of leverage. Perhaps SCL/Cambridge Analytica, expert in the theory and practice of disinformation, observed what the Russians were up to and decided to use it to Trump’s advantage. A data scientist that started a quantitative hedge fund, Robert Mercer would certainly have understood the concept of using leverage to amplify gains–that’s how hedge funds make their money. Perhaps this bet wasn’t about money, but rather about targeted propaganda.

Or perhaps, the truth is stranger still. Christopher Wylie told the Washington Post on Tuesday that among the first things he did for Bannon and the Mercers in 2014 was to test American views on Russian President Vladimir Putin. “The only foreign thing we tested was Putin,” he told the Post. “It turns out, there’s a lot of Americans who really like this idea of a really strong authoritarian leader and people were quite defensive in focus groups of Putin’s invasion of Crimea.”
posted by OnceUponATime at 2:22 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


If these kids we're tougher and weren't such snowflakes, if they'd had more rough and tumble childhoods, if they weren't so granola and liberal, then they wouldn't succumb so easily to fentanyl spiked heroin like some fucking lightweights?

(God I'm so tired.)
posted by Horkus at 2:23 PM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


it starts with neighbors telling neighbors but then they tell another neighbor and by the time it gets to your neighborhood everyone is asking what "MALT ARMENIA GRAPE BEGIN" means

I made this last year and it never gets old
posted by OverlappingElvis at 2:24 PM on March 22, 2018 [20 favorites]




My impression is that the only link only hinted at but not publicly proven to date is CA <> Russia

No fire yet but copious billowing smoke is pouring of CambrAnyl's (SCL's) headquarters:
-- they were involved in the Brexit election, a major Russian objective
-- Prof. Aleksandr Kogan who also calls himself Aleksandr Spectre sometimes, is at the center of CambrAnyl's effort, both the algorithm and the theft of 50 million user's data under false pretenses.
-- Kogan/Spectre has also done research projects at the University of St. Petersburg - the location of the Russian social media hackers of the Internet Research Agency, reportedly taught there and received government grants, and admits lecturing there, in Russian, at least three times since 2014, describing similar data theft methods.
-- As noted, he and SCL pitched Russian oil giant Lukoil on their voter suppression strategies and voter micro-targeting techniques in 2014.
posted by msalt at 2:58 PM on March 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


Collusion between Trump and Russia became publicly undeniable last summer, when Don Jr tweeted out his email and the Veselnitskaya meeting

MeFi Flashback December 30, 2017
1. The Russians reach out looking for a meeting to provide valuable dirt on Trump's opponent. 52 U.S. Code § 30121 has now been violated by the RUSSIANS.

( 52 U.S. Code § 30121 prohibits a foreign national, directly or indirectly, to make a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value, or to make an express or implied promise to make a contribution or donation, in connection with a Federal, State, or local election)

2. The Trump Campaign does NOT inform the FBI of the Russians Criminal Act.

3. The Trump Campaign schedules and attends a meeting with the RUSSIAN CRIMINALS, furthering the Russian scheme.

( 18 USC 2 states "Whoever commits an offense against the United States or aids, abets, counsels, commands, induces or procures its commission, is punishable as a principle"...
Overt acts showing conspiracy between the Trump Campaign and Russian State Actors in the election are thus demonstrated.

QED
posted by mikelieman at 2:59 PM on March 22, 2018 [23 favorites]


It is publicly known that consultants working for the Trump campaign [Cambridge Analytica] offered to help WikiLeaks sort through the emails taken by Russian hackers from the DNC servers.

That's a good point. So:

CA <> WikiLeaks <> Russian hackers ?<>? Russian government

Or am I being too weak on the Russian hackers <> Russian government? It seems to me there is solid evidence (according to the US IC and other, e.g. UK, IC) that the Russian hackers were tied to the Russian government.

My underlying hope is that there will be proof that CA worked directly with Russian hackers to help direct their voter suppression efforts to switchable districts in swing states. If so, it means Trump/GOP directly colluded in illegally influencing voting in a way that was effective in changing the outcome. This could be used to gain public acceptance of the idea that the election was fraudulently won. A remote, but possible outcome would be to permit the overturning of the election by the courts without massive civil unrest resulting from it.
posted by Mental Wimp at 3:06 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


A remote, but possible outcome would be to permit the overturning of the election by the courts without massive civil unrest resulting from it.

A remote-but-possible option would be overturning the election results without SCOTUS throwing out the whole concept as unconstitutional. There is no way to do so without massive civil unrest; 1/4 of the country adores the current president, believes any breakage of laws is fine as long as it's your guys doing it, and they're willing to be vicious and violent about it. Oh, and they have a fuckton of guns.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:10 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


There is no way to do so without massive civil unrest; 1/4 of the country adores the current president, believes any breakage of laws is fine as long as it's your guys doing it, and they're willing to be vicious and violent about it. Oh, and they have a fuckton of guns.

I hear what your saying, and I accept that there are a lot of ever-Trumpers with guns. What I'm hoping is that if sufficient hard evidence of collusion leading to changing of voting results can be found, the remaining 75% will be so incensed that they will insist on the results being overturned. If the 25% (probably fewer, in reality) try to start something, well, that's why we have law enforcement.

At this point, it's all speculative pipe-dreaming, but I would hope that we would not cede the rule of law because a small fraction of us own guns and low IQs.
posted by Mental Wimp at 3:17 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]




The Atlantic has decided to hire Kevin Williamson, notable right-wing scumbag.

Williamson has, among other things, suggested that women who get abortions be hanged. He compared a 9-year-old black child to a primate.

I'm just amazed by this. It's like they looked at the response to the Times columnist selections and thought "oh man, we've got to get us some of that!"
posted by faineg at 3:22 PM on March 22, 2018 [55 favorites]


The Atlantic has decided to hire Kevin Williamson, notable right-wing scumbag

The Atlantic
website only just today began getting really stroppy with me about using adblocking software, and started in with the aggressive 'subscribe or whitelist' article-blocking tactics. I wonder if these decisions are related. Whether or not they're related, I'm now far less inclined to accede to their whitelisting pleas; sorry, but I don't need to read Ian Bogost's notice-me-senpai effort to jump on the Cambridge Analytica news coverage bandwagon *that* badly.
posted by halation at 3:27 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


NYT: McMaster to Resign as National Security Adviser, and Will Be Replaced by John Bolton
WASHINGTON — Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, the battle-tested Army officer tapped as President Trump’s national security adviser last year to stabilize a turbulent foreign policy operation, will resign and be replaced by John R. Bolton, a hard-line former United States ambassador to the United Nations, White House officials said Thursday.
posted by Brainy at 3:27 PM on March 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


Welp, we're fucked.
posted by joedan at 3:29 PM on March 22, 2018 [28 favorites]


We're going to need a bigger fucking fuck thread.
posted by FelliniBlank at 3:31 PM on March 22, 2018 [66 favorites]


MeTalk Fucking Fuck IX thread here.
posted by klarck at 3:33 PM on March 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


So does Trump still claim the Iraq invasion was a mistake?
posted by PenDevil at 3:33 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


So if you were thinking of joining the armed forces: DON’T.
posted by Talez at 3:35 PM on March 22, 2018 [34 favorites]


Flashback to March 2nd.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders sought on Friday to dispel reports that national security adviser H.R. McMaster could be replaced as soon as this month.

"Look, Gen. McMaster's not going anywhere," Sanders said on "Fox & Friends."

posted by SpaceBass at 3:40 PM on March 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


So if you were thinking of joining the armed forces: DON’T.

"Joining"
posted by pracowity at 3:40 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]




Look, I am NOT normally one to toot my own horn but called it
posted by Twain Device at 3:43 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


This is the man who supports Trump sitting down with King Jong-Un with no preconditions because it will allow diplomacy to fail quickly. Bolton is bad, Trump is worse, the two together may kill us all.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:43 PM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]




Truly. Here's a picture of the moment he won. Trump looks like he's about to puke. The look of triumph on Don Jr's dumbass face makes it obvious that wasn't in on the plan to lose.

Ivanka doesn't look too happy, either.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:46 PM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


I hope he's working for Russia because that means some humans will probably be left alive, even if it's a few oligarch compounds
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:48 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Write to congress to demand that the Authorization for Use of Military Force be repealed.
posted by vibrotronica at 3:48 PM on March 22, 2018 [50 favorites]


Next week: Mad Dog replaced by an actual mad dog
posted by theodolite at 3:49 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Good thing Hawkish Hillary didn't win. Imagine the pickle we'd all be in now.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:50 PM on March 22, 2018 [114 favorites]


I am pleased to announce that, effective 4/9/18, @AmbJohnBolton will be my new National Security Advisor.

Oh yay so when I am called back for the Forever War I will have all the old familiar faces!

(quietly vomits into a bucket)
posted by corb at 3:51 PM on March 22, 2018 [39 favorites]


Next week: Mad Dog replaced by an actual mad dog

This would actually be a huge improvement.
posted by zombieflanders at 3:51 PM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


The job of national security advisor (full title Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs) is pretty much what it says on the box, yes? Like, Bolton won't have any special new powers, he'll just have the president's ear (plus access to top-secret info, yikes). That's also a privilege of, e.g, Trump's lawyer John Dowd and (just today) Charlie Kirk, to pick two examples of all the good that does.

I guess it's scarier insofar as the two men could be on the same wavelength when it comes to foreign interactions. But Trump's impulsivity is fractal; I'm not prepared to bet money on him seriously listening to anyone who isn't notably skilled in manipulating Trump-like people.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:51 PM on March 22, 2018


I'm afraid to say John Bolton is or was a Fox News analyst and is experienced in manipulating Trump-like people named Trump.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 3:53 PM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


I'm clinging to the hope that Bolton, an infamous bully with no impulse control and no interpersonal skills, will follow Scaramucci's trajectory: off of Fox News, into the White House, into a headline-hogging gaffe, onto Trump's nerves, out of the White House, into oblivion.

The alternatives arcan't bring myself to finish this sentence
posted by Iridic at 3:54 PM on March 22, 2018 [60 favorites]


A remote, but possible outcome would be to permit the overturning of the election by the courts […]

Please stop with the fantasy about overturning the election. The US public doesn't vote for the President. The voters of each state (plus DC) vote for their respective electors, although I believe a popular vote for electors isn't actually required by the US Constitution. Then these groups of electors deliver certificates reporting their votes to the President of the Senate for presentation at a joint sitting of Congress. Members of Congress have an opportunity to object to a State's votes at that time, and as long as there's support from one member of each House a vote will be taken and that State's report of electoral votes may be rejected. After any objections are dealt with, the Presiding Officer announces the final tally and the winner is thereby elected. There are provisions to deal with deadlocks and so forth.

The 2016 electoral college reports were presented to Congress and not opposed. By implication, Congress approved them. IANAL but I don't think the Supreme Court could overturn Congress' decision to not challenge the result, even if you demonstrated that each elector was wrongly appointed under each State's laws. And if it did, so what? Presumably Congress would just make the same decision. It's really not worth discussing this.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:54 PM on March 22, 2018 [38 favorites]


I'm not prepared to bet money on him seriously listening to anyone who isn't notably skilled in manipulating Trump-like people.

It's a skill that only works until it doesn't...
posted by Mental Wimp at 3:54 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


All I'll say about this announcement until I calm down is that when we debated in these threads about whether Trump could really be said to be worse than George W Bush when W had a body count in the hundreds of thousands we didn't actually mean that as a challenge for Trump to overcome.
posted by Justinian at 3:54 PM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


This aged well...

NYT (MDowd): Donald the Dove, Hillary the Hawk
posted by chris24 at 3:56 PM on March 22, 2018 [74 favorites]


Might be a good idea to really suck the marrow out of life for the next 18 days.

Should probably hang onto some of that marrow for the after-times
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:57 PM on March 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


I remember when we were all excited by the use of big data and social networks to win elections. How times change.
posted by clawsoon at 3:57 PM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Members of Congress have an opportunity to object to a State's votes at that time...

And what if it's found that the members of Congress were fraudulently elected? Is there no remedy? If so, we are susceptible to take-over by fraud without any recourse. What you propose means that once a cabal manages to take over two branches, there's nothing to stop them from dismantling our democracy, even if the courts stay neutral. What you suggest may be true, but if it is, we need to change the rules, one way or another, because it's a loophole in the system.
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:00 PM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


I am sure he will act quickly to remedy THIS situation (from 12/03/2016): Bolton: Russia sanctions insufficient; U.S. must ‘make the Russians feel pain’
posted by mosk at 4:00 PM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


This hire is just the cherry on top of the Bolton shit sundae: Fox News reports, Victoria Toensing Joins Husband Joseph Digenova On Trump's Legal Team In Russia Probe
President Trump retained the law firm diGenova & Toensing this week to represent him in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling and potential collusion with Trump campaign associates in the 2016 presidential election, sources told Fox News on Thursday.[...]

Recently, Toensing represented Mark Corallo, an ex-spokesman to former Trump attorney Marc Kasowitz, in his interview with the special counsel’s team. Toensing also represented Sam Clovis, a 2016 Trump campaign associate who supervised George Papadopoulos, in Clovis' Mueller interview. Papadopoulos pleaded guilty last year to making false statements to the FBI as part of the special counsel’s probe. Toensing also represented Erik Prince, a former informal adviser to Trump, who allegedly attended a meeting in January 2017 with a Russian investor in Seychelles, that Mueller reportedly is investigating.

But Corallo told Fox News on Thursday there was no conflict of interest.

“I signed a waiver acknowledging I see no potential conflicts with their representation of the President,” Corallo told Fox News in an email on Thursday, explaining it was a “standard” waiver of “potential conflict.”

A source close to diGenova and Toensing told Fox News that Corallo, Clovis and the president signed a waiver.

“The conflict is owned by the client. The conflict privilege is owned by the client,” the source told Fox News. “It’s the clients who have the privilege to waive. And the president waived it too.”
Toensing's current claim to fame is representing an FBI informant involved in the Uranium One pseudo-scandal. Like her husband, she bolsters Trump's legal team mainly with her expertise in appearing on Fox News to hawk right-wing conspiracy theories.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:00 PM on March 22, 2018 [10 favorites]


When we all die, just feel better knowing that tons of left pundits and journalists bought into the manifestly obvious lie that Trump was against the Iraq War and less of a hawk than Hillary.

NYT: How Hillary Clinton Became a Hawk "Donald J. Trump has demonstrated nowhere near the appetite for military engagement abroad that Clinton has."

The Nation: Donald Trump Could Be the Military-Industrial Complex’s Worst Nightmare

The Intercept: ROBERT KAGAN AND OTHER NEOCONS ARE BACKING HILLARY CLINTON

The Intercept: DONALD TRUMP CALLS HILLARY CLINTON “TRIGGER HAPPY” AS SHE COURTS NEOCONS

Guardian: At least President Trump would ground the drones
posted by chris24 at 4:05 PM on March 22, 2018 [92 favorites]


Can we have Michael instead of John? He's all for women's rights, equality, and ever so soothing. I also think DC could use more knee-length leather and/or denim dusters.
posted by stillmoving at 4:05 PM on March 22, 2018 [29 favorites]


The only thing about the Bolton appointment keeping me from completely losing my everloving mind at the moment is that at least we got two installments of darth’s ongoing photoshop of the outgoing staff today.
posted by marshmallow peep at 4:06 PM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


InTheYear2017 and Iridic have it: Bolton is too much like Trump for Trump Actual to have him around for long. Still though, EMRJKC94's I hope he's working for Russia because that means... has given me hope - can we get Ashcroft, Cheney,and Rumsfeld on Trump's cabinet and just roll them right up in Mueller's investigation, too? 2002/3-Me thanks you very much.
posted by eclectist at 4:06 PM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


America feels like it is one massive military clusterfuck away from completely collapsing on itself. If we go to war with North Korea or Iran (or both), hundreds of thousands will die and, at least against Iran, we could suffer a military defeat. The world will pay the price.

Also Bolton looks like the walrus from Alice in Wonderland. This is probably why Trump picked him.
posted by guiseroom at 4:08 PM on March 22, 2018 [8 favorites]


And right on schedule, here's Eli Lake ready with Bolton's tongue-bath. I expect he'll be calling everyone not in favor of nuking Tehran anti-Semites by the end of the month.
posted by zombieflanders at 4:11 PM on March 22, 2018


InTheYear2017 and Iridic have it: Bolton is too much like Trump for Trump Actual to have him around for long.

I wonder about this. Bolton's been described as a classic "kiss up, kick down sorta guy" and since there's really only one person he needs to kiss, in this situation, I could see him finding a way to hang on -- and he won't need much time to do damage. He also has a long track record of peddling precisely the sorts of conspiracy bullshit that his new boss best loves.
posted by halation at 4:12 PM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Wow, Chris Mathews is totally wigging out. He's making the Fucking Fuck thread sound sedate.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:14 PM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


And what if it's found that the members of Congress were fraudulently elected? Is there no remedy? If so, we are susceptible to take-over by fraud without any recourse. What you propose means that once a cabal manages to take over two branches, there's nothing to stop them from dismantling our democracy, even if the courts stay neutral. What you suggest may be true, but if it is, we need to change the rules, one way or another, because it's a loophole in the system.

Maybe there should be a provision in the Constitution for what to do if an election is rigged, but there isn't one. Just insisting that that's ridiculous doesn't empower the courts to do anything about it. I'm pretty sure it would require amending the Constitution, which isn't literally impossible but it's not going to happen in the next three years. The elections results we got are the election results we are stuck with.
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:14 PM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


TFW your last, best hope is that John Kelly hates John Bolton's guts.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:15 PM on March 22, 2018 [14 favorites]


I used to write, "It has been _0_ days since the last Trump disaster." Now I need to write, "It has been _0_ hours since the last Trump disaster."
posted by Melismata at 4:17 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


TFW your last, best hope is that John Kelly hates John Bolton's guts.

Bolton is a chickenhawk who served in the National Guard to duck Vietnam, and is pretty fucking cavalier with the lives of our servicemembers.

I'm sure all the uniformed guys hate him.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:19 PM on March 22, 2018 [15 favorites]


America feels like it is one massive military clusterfuck away from completely collapsing on itself. If we go to war with North Korea or Iran (or both), hundreds of thousands will die and, at least against Iran, we could suffer a military defeat.

Hell, I think a VICTORY against the Islamic Republic would break the American Empire.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 4:19 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]




Bolton's Agenda:

1) Rip up the Iran deal.
2) Accuse Iran of developing nuclear weapons
3) Offer a new deal which involves Iran prostrating themselves for the United States, this isn't actually serious, merely a pretext to justify what's next
4) When Iran obviously doesn't acquiesce accuse them of restarting the nuclear program
5) Start bombing sites that are "military in nature" alongside Israel
6) ???
7) Turn the Iranian Plateau to glass

The $65,000 question being how many people die in step 6.
posted by Talez at 4:23 PM on March 22, 2018 [11 favorites]


‘Lone DNC Hacker’ Guccifer 2.0 Slipped Up and Revealed He Was a Russian Intelligence Officer - Daily Beast

Roger Stone was DMing with a GRU officer for dirt on Hillary Clinton.
posted by faineg at 4:24 PM on March 22, 2018 [80 favorites]


Daily Beast EXCLUSIVE: ‘Lone DNC Hacker’ Guccifer 2.0 Slipped Up and Revealed He Was a Russian Intelligence Officer
Guccifer 2.0, the “lone hacker” who took credit for providing WikiLeaks with stolen emails from the Democratic National Committee, was in fact an officer of Russia’s military intelligence directorate (GRU), The Daily Beast has learned. It’s an attribution that resulted from a fleeting but critical slip-up in GRU tradecraft.

That forensic determination has substantial implications for the criminal probe into potential collusion between President Donald Trump and Russia. The Daily Beast has learned that the special counsel in that investigation, Robert Mueller, has taken over the probe into Guccifer and brought the FBI agents who worked to track the persona onto his team.
Amazingly for the cyber-wilderness of mirrors, they have a smoking gun:
[O]n one occasion, The Daily Beast has learned, Guccifer failed to activate the VPN client before logging on. As a result, he left a real, Moscow-based Internet Protocol address in the server logs of an American social media company, according to a source familiar with the government’s Guccifer investigation. Twitter and WordPress were Guccifer 2.0’s favored outlets. Neither company would comment for this story, and Guccifer did not respond to a direct message on Twitter.

Working off the IP address, U.S. investigators identified Guccifer 2.0 as a particular GRU officer working out of the agency’s headquarters on Grizodubovoy Street in Moscow. (The Daily Beast’s sources did not disclose which particular officer worked as Guccifer.)[...]

While the national election clearly interested him[...], Guccifer 2.0 reached down the ballot as well, posting documents from the Democrats’ national campaign committee on his WordPress blog. There, readers could find internal Democratic candidate assessments relevant to battleground states like Pennsylvania and Florida; internal assessments of key congressional districts, with granular analyses of their demographics; and campaign recruitment material.

The GRU officer was eager to share this trove, as well. A GOP political operative in Florida, Aaron Nevins, DM’d Guccifer 2.0 a request for “any Florida based information” and received 2.5 gigabytes’ worth, according to The Wall Street Journal. The data, he enthused to Guccifer 2.0, was “probably worth millions of dollars.” A consultant for a successful Florida Republican congressional candidate told the paper, “I did adjust some voting targets based on some data I saw from the leaks.”

Sometime after its hasty launch, the Guccifer persona was handed off to a more experienced GRU officer, according to a source familiar with the matter. The timing of that handoff is unclear, but Guccifer 2.0’s last blog post, from Jan. 12, 2017, evinced a far greater command of English that the persona’s earlier efforts.
This intelligence leak is pure dynamite—and could blow the alibis of Roger Stone and Julian Assange into smithereens.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:25 PM on March 22, 2018 [141 favorites]


My Twitter list has hundreds and hundreds of eminent foreign policy experts, and they are all panicking right now. A lot of "We'll Meet Again" Tweets.

As a young person, I am having some feelings about my older white countrymen right now.
posted by faineg at 4:26 PM on March 22, 2018 [21 favorites]


And right on schedule, here's Eli Lake ready with Bolton's tongue-bath...

posted by zombieflanders at 4:11 PM on March 22 [+] [!]


My favorite response to that tweet:
Bolton has a friend who isn't a madman. Heartwarming.
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:30 PM on March 22, 2018 [3 favorites]


Wow, Chris Mathews is totally wigging out. He's making the Fucking Fuck thread sound sedate.

Say what you will about Matthews, and plenty has been said on the blue, he has been staunchly anti-idiotic-wars for decades. He was against the Iraq war way before it was cool to be against the Iraq war.
posted by Justinian at 4:30 PM on March 22, 2018 [24 favorites]


i will distract myself from my overwhelming anxiety by asking if anyone knows if mcmaster was Fired By Tweet?
posted by murphy slaw at 4:31 PM on March 22, 2018


So, Kelly's a liar, a fascist, and a racist, but not otherwise obviously insane. Hopefully as Chief of Staff he would make it literally impossible for Bolton to ever be in the same room as Trump.

Where's the rest of the Republican foreign policy establishment, btw? Why are they not shouting bloody murder from every rooftop? Everybody knows Bolton's fucking crazy.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:33 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


i will distract myself from my overwhelming anxiety by asking if anyone knows if mcmaster was Fired By Tweet?

Dunno, but remember the bullshit about how they were going to keep him around until they could arrange a four-star gig for him because they wanted him to exit with dignity? Right.
posted by FelliniBlank at 4:34 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


@jdawsey1 (WaPo)
Trump called McMaster around 5:15 and told him he was being replaced, per person with knowledge. It was a foregone conclusion. But it was pleasant and not fired by tweet.
posted by chris24 at 4:36 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


@NatashaBertrand: Guccifer 2.0, of course, was cited as evidence by Roger Stone that Russia didn’t hack the DNC. He wrote an entire article about it.

(article link in tweet goes to Breitbart.)
posted by guiseroom at 4:38 PM on March 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


Maybe there should be a provision in the Constitution for what to do if an election is rigged, but there isn't one. Just insisting that that's ridiculous doesn't empower the courts to do anything about it. I'm pretty sure it would require amending the Constitution, which isn't literally impossible but it's not going to happen in the next three years. The elections results we got are the election results we are stuck with.

posted by showbiz_liz at 4:14 PM on March 22 [2 favorites +] [!]


Well, I'll take comfort in the fact that you're pretty sure, but not absolutely sure. In any event, I would like to hear the courts weigh in on it before I assume there is no recourse. SCOTUS ultimately interprets what's in and not in the Constitution. And it seems like the DNC and the Clinton campaign should be the plaintiffs.
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:38 PM on March 22, 2018


So what was the info Guccifer hacked from the RNC?
posted by gucci mane at 4:40 PM on March 22, 2018


A GOP political operative in Florida, Aaron Nevins, DM’d Guccifer 2.0 a request for “any Florida based information” and received 2.5 gigabytes’ worth, according to The Wall Street Journal. The data, he enthused to Guccifer 2.0, was “probably worth millions of dollars.” A consultant for a successful Florida Republican congressional candidate told the paper, “I did adjust some voting targets based on some data I saw from the leaks.”

So ... Florida Republicans asked for stolen data, were given the data, valued it at "millions of dollars", and actually used it. Thst sounds like a pretty solid case for breaches of electoral laws, theft, and hacking. Why isn't anyone being charged yet?
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:41 PM on March 22, 2018 [86 favorites]


One benefit of Trump's tendency to worship stars on a collar is that Mattis (who is still on Trump's good side) has the credibility to tell Bolton to fuck off, and Trump is more likely to listen.

This is why Mattis is there. Can you imagine what would happen if a Tillerson-type SecDef were the only thing between Trump, Bolton, and the next war?
posted by leotrotsky at 4:41 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Folks, this is bad enough without the "ZOMG WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE" thing. could we please, pretty please with sugar on top back that down or taking it to the fucking fuck thread, or something? I'm trying to keep up -without- spiralling down into a bleak pit of horrible despair today, and the doomsaying is really not helping with that.
posted by Archelaus at 4:42 PM on March 22, 2018 [52 favorites]


So what was the info Guccifer hacked from the RNC?

Kompromat. The Russians could have released all the RNC emails just like they did the DNC. There's a reason they didn't. And that reason is one reason why Ryan/McConnell et al are supporting Trump/Russia. They know what's in there, and it's probably a shitload of Russian money funding Republicans.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:44 PM on March 22, 2018 [62 favorites]


could we please, pretty please with sugar on top back that down or taking it to the fucking fuck thread, or something?

Cosign. I know things are grim and I'm not gonna speak for anyone else, but, like, I really need to maintain my equanimity. Invoking "We'll Meet Again"? Not helping with that, thanks.
posted by adamgreenfield at 4:44 PM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


Add me to the list of people who would like to see a chill on the war talk. I’m keenly aware it’s a growing possibility but all the catastrophic talk makes it hard for people with loved ones in the military to temper their already sky-high anxiety.
posted by _Mona_ at 4:51 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Mod note: Officially, please keep the disaster forecasting to a minimum here. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 4:53 PM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


@kevincollier: Oh! In 2016 @GUCCIFER_2 tweeted he'd given his stash to WikiLeaks, which retweeted that tweet. I've always read that as an endorsement, but Assange won't affirm. If that's true, and DB report is true, that'd mean GRU *directly* gave Hillary's emails to WikiLeaks. No intermediary.

Hmm.
posted by faineg at 4:54 PM on March 22, 2018 [48 favorites]


so we thought that Wikileaks got the emails from a GRU cutout, but it turns out that Wikileaks was the cutout.

i would not want to be roger stone’s pants right now

well, ever, really, but you know what i mean
posted by murphy slaw at 4:59 PM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


Is, uh, espionage a strict liability crime? I suspect not, unfortunately.
posted by Justinian at 5:01 PM on March 22, 2018


Legal question: if Roger Stone goes to prison, what happens to the Nixon horcrux on his back, which presumably retains its full pardon?
posted by theodolite at 5:02 PM on March 22, 2018 [63 favorites]


@jelani9
We should be clear: Trump is constructing a war-time cabinet. He is not systematic or strategic; he is driven by impulse rather than design. But by whatever mechanisms he did it, he is bringing together a team for war.
posted by Artw at 5:02 PM on March 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


Pompeo's confirmation hearings just got more interesting. Senate can't stop Bolton, but hopefully Ds light up Pompeo, another neocon almost as hawkish as Bolton.
posted by chris24 at 5:02 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


. . .by whatever mechanisms he did it, he is bringing together a team for war.
Weird, I got the impression he was bringing together a team to do Fox News broadcasts live for him during executive time.
posted by rc3spencer at 5:05 PM on March 22, 2018 [18 favorites]


How hawkish is Pence?

Just wondering whether the Bolton appointment could be the straw that breaks the camel's back amongst non-investigation-implicated Republicans and the calls for impeachment spread beyond the Never-Trumpers?
posted by doornoise at 5:10 PM on March 22, 2018


Just wondering whether the Bolton appointment could be the straw that breaks the camel's back amongst non-investigation-implicated Republicans and the calls for impeachment spread beyond the Never-Trumpers?

This will not happen, ever.
posted by gerryblog at 5:14 PM on March 22, 2018 [25 favorites]


How hawkish is Pence?
well
his religious views suggest that he's unlikely to stop anything furthering the apocalyptic narrative that brings back jesus
so we probably don't want to hang much hope on him
posted by halation at 5:14 PM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


How hawkish is Pence?

You can't really start Armageddon without every fucker trying to blow up Israel.
posted by Talez at 5:16 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


amongst non-investigation-implicated Republicans and the calls for impeachment spread beyond the Never-Trumpers?

Lindsey Graham says Trump could not have made a better choice than John Bolton for National Security Advisor.

You can count the number of Republicans that are against this nomination on one hand. Flake, Corker and Rand Paul. A couple outliers in the House like Amash. That's it.

Trump is not some outlier in the Republican party, everything he's doing is EXACTLY in line with the mainstream Republican view. All of them want to rip up the Iran deal. Most of them would happily invade Iran tomorrow.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:16 PM on March 22, 2018 [30 favorites]


Holding out hope for Bolton as the last straw for the Rump Republicans' support of Trump amounts to whistling in the dark.

e.g. Lil' Marco Rubio's congratulatory tweet: "I know John Bolton well, he is an excellent choice who will do an great job as National Security Advisor. General McMaster has served and will continue to serve our nation well. We should all be grateful to him for his service."
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:19 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


How. How can any person with brain be celebrating Bolton. I don't understand.
posted by angrycat at 5:21 PM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


any person with brain
well i think i found the flaw in your premise
posted by halation at 5:23 PM on March 22, 2018 [45 favorites]


How. How can any person with brain be celebrating Bolton. I don't understand.

War is fun and profitable to these people when it's not their kid they're sending off to die.
posted by Talez at 5:24 PM on March 22, 2018 [20 favorites]


Hey, let's combine the Guccifer and Bolton stories...

Dec 2016: Bolton suggests DNC hack was Obama administration 'false flag'
posted by chris24 at 5:24 PM on March 22, 2018 [38 favorites]


Remember when Republicans invited the PM of Israel to give a speech *to Congress* snubbing Obama's Iran deal? Yeah.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:26 PM on March 22, 2018 [12 favorites]


It had been rumored that McMaster might go back to the ranks and possibly pick up a fourth star. Instead, he's requesting retirement. It was rumored he might become the next commander of US forces in Korea, but the Pentagon this week said a decision to leave by the current commander had not been made yet.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:32 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


Daily Beast, Congress Snuck New Russia Sanctions Into Spending Bill
The spending bill bars the use of federal funds for “enter[ing] into new contracts with, or new agreements for Federal assistance to, the Russian Federation,” and allocates $250 million to the Countering Russian Influence Fund—a 150 percent increase from last year. Additionally, it authorizes significant new sanctions against Russia over its actions in eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Their origin, though, remains a mystery. While lawmakers were unsure who exactly inserted those measures into the 2,232-page spending bill, they said it represented a broad point of agreement among Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill in a policy area where Trump himself has, in their view, struggled.
posted by zachlipton at 5:41 PM on March 22, 2018 [47 favorites]


Struggled.

Yeah. I suppose "struggled" is a word you could use to describe his outright refusal to enact the sanctions.

Collusion seems like a better one, though.
posted by Archelaus at 5:44 PM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


Is there a list of the tariffs levied on Chinese imports today? I'm curious if any of them are products made by Trump's or Ivanka's companies.
posted by SpaceBass at 5:44 PM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


@CNN [Video]: "After we had been intimate, he tried to pay me." Former Playboy model Karen McDougal shares details of an alleged affair she had with Donald Trump.

@mkraju: “He said I was beautiful like her,” McDougal says, referring to Trump allegedly comparing her to Ivanka
posted by zachlipton at 5:44 PM on March 22, 2018 [37 favorites]


so the republicans put (or allowed the democrats to put) a raft of new russia sanctions in the omnibus bill. they have tweaked trump's nose on russia without giving him the ability to call them out by name during the upcoming campaign. well played.

now they just have to hope that no one points this out to Trump before he signs the thing.
posted by murphy slaw at 5:50 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


Never mind today's news about Chinese tariffs, Dowd's departure, Bolton's hiring, and Guccifer 2.0's unmasking, we're going to need a new thread before tomorrow morning if this advance media advisory from Rod Rosenstein is anything to go by:
Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein To Make Major Cyber Law Enforcement Announcement
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and other law enforcement officials will hold a press conference Friday, March 23, 2018 for a major cyber law enforcement announcement.

Who: Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein; Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence* Sigal Mandelker; Assistant Attorney General John C. Demers; U. S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman for Southern District of New York; FB Deputy Director David L. Bowdich; FBI Assistant Directory in Charge William F. Sweeney Jr.

When: Friday, March 23, 2018 10:00 a.m. EDT
* This office oversees FinCEN and OFAC, which means there's every chance this announcement will involve money-laundering in some way.

(Tip-off from Politico cybersecurity reporter Eric Geller)
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:54 PM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


“He said I was beautiful like her,” McDougal says, referring to Trump allegedly comparing her to Ivanka

Ew.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:57 PM on March 22, 2018 [31 favorites]


If the 25% (probably fewer, in reality) try to start something, well, that's why we have law enforcement.

There's a right-wing militia called the 3 Percenters whose name comes from the theory that 3% of the population fought in the War of Independence (in reality it's more like 15%). But when you add up the law enforcement and military personnel who are involved/sympathetic with/to them and Oath Keepers it's a pretty formidable number.

They are sworn to uphold the Constitution (as they interpret it) and btw they love Trump. So don't put your faith in law enforcement upholding "the law".
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:57 PM on March 22, 2018 [17 favorites]


It had been rumored that McMaster might go back to the ranks and possibly pick up a fourth star. Instead, he's requesting retirement.

Huh. I wonder if he wants to bail out while he can and speak out. He's supposed to remain apolitical as an active duty officer. Once retired, he can say what he wants. Also once retired, he can presumably keep his retirement benefits, unlike people who are fired the weekend before said retirement.

I still don't have any real sympathy or hopes for McMaster, so I'm not holding out any expectations of a sudden show of conscience. But a 3-star passing up a chance to be a 4-star is interesting.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:00 PM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


a 3-star passing up a chance to be a 4-star is interesting.

He's been up close and personal with Trump for a while now, which may have something to do with the decision to resign his commission and take retirement rather than continue to serve under the current Commander-in-Chief.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 6:03 PM on March 22, 2018 [19 favorites]


Also, are we *sure* he had the actual chance to become a 4 star or was that bullshit?
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:13 PM on March 22, 2018 [5 favorites]


@jboule: I can't help but think about Pompeo at State and Bolton on the NSC in the context of this from Trump.
In private conversations, Trump has told advisers that he doesn’t think the 2018 election has to be as bad as others are predicting. He has referenced the 2002 midterms, when George W. Bush and Republicans fared better after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, these people said.
WaPost, 14Jan2018: "New alarm among Republicans that Democrats could win big this year"
posted by pjenks at 6:18 PM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


But, I wonder, is Trump really competent enough to start a war?
posted by pjenks at 6:22 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


@kaitlancollins: Trump and Bolton have been discussing for weeks how he could replace McMaster. According to what a source familiar with those negotiations told me, Bolton promised Trump "he wouldn't start any wars" if he selected him as the new national security adviser.

I mean...that he felt the need to specifically make such a promise seems like kind of the problem here.
posted by zachlipton at 6:24 PM on March 22, 2018 [34 favorites]


it doesn't take a tremendous amount of competence to start a war. the way that congress has abdicated its war powers has rendered the US Military basically a point-and-shoot device.

ending a war, now that's where the competence comes in…
posted by murphy slaw at 6:24 PM on March 22, 2018 [27 favorites]


There's a right-wing militia called the 3 Percenters whose name comes from the theory that 3% of the population fought in the War of Independence (in reality it's more like 15%)

Was it really that few? Even at 15%? Because my family tree makes it look like every male person alive during that time (and that's most of the tree) fought for the Revolution.

How many times can you join DAR?

How many times would you want to?
posted by elsietheeel at 6:25 PM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Bolton promised Trump "he wouldn't start any wars" if he selected him as the new national security adviser.

Of course not. It's the other guys who will "start" them, just like Saddam did.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:38 PM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


So, do you think there is any actual classified information left? I would imagine Russia can look at whatever it wants these days.
posted by maxwelton at 6:57 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


Also, are we *sure* [McMaster] had the actual chance to become a 4 star or was that bullshit?

Trump consistently holds rewards out to his supporters but then snatches them away for some real or imagined slight. It looks to me as if he actively seeks opportunities to do this: look at the way his (then) Press Secretary, Sean Spicer, was excluded from Trump's audience with the Pope. I think Trump views any favour he can grant as a potential hold over the people who desire it; giving them what they want means relinquishing his hold. This strategy works much better for him than I would have expected: maybe he's tapped into something about operant conditioning.

Anyway, if McMaster is smart he will know that (a) he's unlikely to get that fourth star; (b) if he tries to get it he'll certainly become more complicit; and (c) Trump humiliates everyone in his circle unless he's trying to get favours from them. Better to make a clean break than be forced to eat the meatloaf.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:58 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


ELECTIONS NEWS

** MS Senate special -- Longtime Republican operator Andy Taggart mulling jumping into this race, out of concern appointee Cindy Hyde-Smith not strong enough to see off Chris McDaniel threat. The more Republicans jump in, the more likely a Dem at least makes the runoff.

** 2018 House:
-- CA-48: Laura Oatman drops out of the race in an effort to winnow the field in the Rohrabacher seat. This is one of a couple races where there is concern too many Dems may result in Republicans locking up the top two slots.

-- GOP leaders worried that normally safe Reps aren't taking the Dem threat seriously enough.

-- Loooooong Sabato write-up of the history of House retirements. GOP retirements are at historic highs by pretty much any measure. Odds are we'll still see a few more.
** Odds & ends:
-- A large number of Milwaukee voters have been dropped from the rolls, at least some in error. This being Scott Walker's Wisconsin, unclear how much of this is incompetence, how much malfeasance.

-- Speaking of Walker, he lost a court case today in his effort to avoid holding special elections he might lose. The judge - a Walker appointee - was blistering in her judgment. The AG has said they may appeal, so not clear what the next step is. The seats - one Senate, one Assembly - are red, but within range of a Dem flip.

-- NY gov Cuomo has a clear lead, but needs to take the primary challenge by Cynthia Nixon seriously.

-- PPIC poll of the CA gov race continues to show Gavin Newsom with comfortable lead, Republican Cox narrowly in second. Dems hope to have top two slots locked up to torpedo GOP turnout for downballot races.

-- Chief Justice of the PA Supreme Court fires off a (for a court justice) pretty fired up letter about the PA GOP's impeachment threat. Note that he is a Republican, and voted against the redistricting.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 PM on March 22, 2018 [41 favorites]


PPIC poll of the CA gov race continues to show Gavin Newsom with comfortable lead, Republican Cox narrowly in second. Dems hope to have top two slots locked up to torpedo GOP turnout for downballot races.

Gavin Newsom will be a very surprising win, because Lieutenant Governors historically don't do well as Governors in CA (*cough* Gray Davis *cough*).

IMHO, Newsom is all hat and no cattle. I'm still rooting for John Chiang.
posted by elsietheeel at 7:10 PM on March 22, 2018 [1 favorite]


It's worth reading about that Scott Walker case (although infuriating) - The argument against is so transparently ridiculous. The quick pull quote that summarizes it:

The case hinged on a state law that says Walker must promptly call a special election to fill any legislative seat that becomes vacant "before the second Tuesday in May in the year in which a regular election is held."

Walker aides contended Walker didn't need to hold special elections because the vacancies occurred not in 2018 — the election year — but in 2017.


Of course, the Judge - appointed by Walker - is being derided as an 'activist judge.' You know, for interpreting the law in a not completely fucking insane way.
posted by MysticMCJ at 7:12 PM on March 22, 2018 [40 favorites]


So, do you think there is any actual classified information left? I would imagine Russia can look at whatever it wants these days.

No. I literally think Russia has direct access to the nuclear codes. If we tried to launch a retaliatory strike, I don't think it would work, because they've changed the locks.

We are a client state.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:18 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Interesting discussion on Lawyers, Guns, and Money: Federally Guaranteed Employment can be Politically Popular

Spoiler: 52 percent in support, 29 percent opposed, even when phrased in partisan terms and mentioning revenue (i.e., presented as a Democratic Party policy paid for with a 5% tax on income above $200,000).
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:29 PM on March 22, 2018 [40 favorites]


Ooh, among other things, the omnibus spending bill is defunding ACORN, which I assume is currently being managed by Zombie Saul Alinsky.
posted by jackbishop at 7:30 PM on March 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


I'm still a little surprised that Paul Ryan is sleepwalking to oblivion. Maybe I missed the bit where he managed to defund healthcare like he always wanted, but the only way for him to secure that legacy dies in the November elections the way things are going. He isn't enough of a sycophant to be 100% on board with Trump, and he has to know that come the election he won't be minority leader. So why not talk to McConnell, ram through impeachment and hope that Pence instead of Trump means the Democratic base isn't as motivated to turn out?
posted by Merus at 7:38 PM on March 22, 2018 [2 favorites]


Maybe Paul Ryan is more afraid for his life than he is of losing his position as speaker and/or his legacy.
posted by Slothrup at 7:42 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


I'm afraid to say John Bolton is or was a Fox News analyst and is experienced in manipulating Trump-like people named Trump.

Remember this guy named Trump is the same guy who has a serious fear of being poisoned, an outsized (?) opinion on the attractiveness of his daughter, has been accused of rape by multiple people including his wife, changes subjects multiple times within the same sentence, repeats the exact same stories the exact same way every 10-20 minutes, believes his life's energy is set at birth and running out faster the more he moves, and delights and obsesses in creating conflict and humiliating those within his inner circle. Also his hair is ridiculous.

Bolton may not be as addled as Trump but he's going to get his - that's all Trump does, all day, every day. The dignity wraith contract comes with unlimited meatloaf and an NDA. (And, very possibly, a subpoena.). The longer he lasts, the closer he gets, the more Trump will crush him. He'll start big and wind up like everyone else. On the outs, confused, and humiliated.

Congratulations, John. Start drinking.
posted by petebest at 7:43 PM on March 22, 2018 [65 favorites]


Ooh, among other things, the omnibus spending bill is defunding ACORN

That's been in every budget bill since the 2010 Tea Party takeover.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:48 PM on March 22, 2018 [6 favorites]


The Defunding of the Acorn has become a yearly fertility ritual, intended to ensure bountiful rains of liberal tears.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:51 PM on March 22, 2018 [52 favorites]




So, Kelly's a liar, a fascist, and a racist, but not otherwise obviously insane. Hopefully as Chief of Staff he would make it literally impossible for Bolton to ever be in the same room as Trump.

Hope not, friend! Trump is thinking about getting rid of the Chief of Staff position altogether and just working with all of his lieutenants directly. [true] I mean, it worked so well for him in the Trump org! /s
posted by msalt at 8:13 PM on March 22, 2018 [22 favorites]


Trump is thinking about getting rid of the Chief of Staff position altogether and just working with all of his lieutenants directly.

can you imagine trump being responsible for keeping his own calendar? “executive time” as far as the eye can see, as befits the chief executive.
posted by murphy slaw at 8:22 PM on March 22, 2018 [16 favorites]


So that's how he gets out of the Mueller investigation. No one in the white house to receive/deliver the subpoenas, and fox news doesn't tell him about them.
posted by mrgoat at 8:28 PM on March 22, 2018 [7 favorites]


Senate's still in session on the omnibus. They're voting now to call all 100 to the floor. CSPAN Link.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:38 PM on March 22, 2018


So Michael Avenatti tweeted a picture of a DVD, saying, "If “a picture is worth a thousand words,” how many words is this worth?????#60minutes #pleasedenyit #basta."

Get your helmet and buckle up, kids; it could be a batshit Sunday.
posted by FelliniBlank at 8:47 PM on March 22, 2018 [44 favorites]


Michael Avenatti missed his true calling as a hype man.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:50 PM on March 22, 2018 [29 favorites]


@BilgeEbiri (Village Voice)
If Stormy can end this she deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.
posted by chris24 at 8:52 PM on March 22, 2018 [109 favorites]


The good news, now that Bolton is NSA, is that we're no longer going into a ruinous war with North Korea!

Instead we will send our sons and daughters to die by the tens of thousands in Iran. Provided they just don't go ahead and build the goddamn bomb while we're getting our logistics in line... and if they have one, the Saudis will have one, too. And...
posted by Slap*Happy at 8:55 PM on March 22, 2018


“Anyone can go to Baghdad. Real men go to Tehran.” -- Senior Bush Official, May 2003
posted by kirkaracha at 9:06 PM on March 22, 2018




McMaster firing upends plan to oust other top Trump officials (Eliana Johnson, Politico
Though the timing was unexpected, Trump’s decision to dismiss McMaster, a three-star Army general who has never meshed with the president personally, was not.

McMaster, who replaced Trump’s first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, a little over a year ago, is an intensely focused intellectual whose detailed briefings, by all accounts, drove the president crazy. Trump took to mocking him openly in the Oval Office, asking other White House aides why McMaster was so serious.

“Everyone knew he’d be out eventually,” said a second senior administration official.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:20 PM on March 22, 2018 [13 favorites]


Apparently one of the things holding up the spending bill tonight was Jim Risch's blood feud with deceased Idaho governor Cecil Andrus. He was doing everything in his power to stop the bill from renaming a wilderness preserve after Andrus, and I guess succeeded in getting that through the Senate, but it's not like anyone in the House cares, so the name will still change and congrats to Risch on throwing a fit about someone who's dead for no gain to anyone, anywhere, not even himself.
posted by Copronymus at 11:18 PM on March 22, 2018 [9 favorites]


Migration Policy Institute, Even as Congress Remains on Sidelines, the Trump Administration Slows Legal Immigration, with charts showing the reductions in legal immigration under Trump, including the drop-off in refugees and a slowdown in adjudicating family petitions.
posted by zachlipton at 11:48 PM on March 22, 2018 [4 favorites]


asking other White House aides why McMaster was so serious.

okay, this is a bit on the nose even by 2018 standards
posted by murphy slaw at 11:53 PM on March 22, 2018 [59 favorites]


In honor of Trump: I would like to formally pitch the idea we shit-can our tedious, racist national anthem and replace it with Tove Lo's Habits, a tune much more grounded in the reality of our brave new America.

baboobaboo...
posted by maxwelton at 2:21 AM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Bolton is like some bizarre character composite from Dr Strangelove: he manages to combine the paranoid nationalism of General Ripper, the enthusiasm for war of General Turgidson, and the chilling inhumanity of Strangelove himself.
posted by Major Clanger at 2:22 AM on March 23, 2018 [26 favorites]


Surprise! He's also hiding Russian Ambassador Alexi de Sadesky in his mustache.
posted by mosk at 3:24 AM on March 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


Poor McMaster. I can totally imagine him doing a briefing thinking: 'I can't just talk down to him like the Trump-wranglers say I should. How could he not feel patronised? Surely he has basic comprehension skills? I'll just treat him like an adult - anything else would be belittling.'

And all the time Trump's thinking: 'What's with all this "context" and these long sentences? He must be trying to catch me out. So belittling.'

And all the while Garfield's owner's former friend Lyman is waiting in the wings under his new identity, 'John Bolton'.
posted by Mocata at 3:25 AM on March 23, 2018 [22 favorites]


there are some choice leaks in the WaPo coverage of McMaster/Bolton:
His struggles with Trump were often personal. When the president would receive his morning schedule and see that he was expected to spend 30 minutes or longer with McMaster outside of his intelligence briefing, Trump would complain and ask aides to cut it back, according to two people familiar with the matter, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

At times, Trump would tell McMaster that he understood an issue largely to make him stop talking, these people said. “I get it, general, I get it,” Trump would say, according to two people who were present at the time.

Some days, Trump would tell his staff that he did not want to see McMaster at all, one of these people said.
(emphasis mine)
posted by murphy slaw at 3:35 AM on March 23, 2018 [38 favorites]


They are sworn to uphold the Constitution (as they interpret it) and btw they love Trump. So don't put your faith in law enforcement upholding "the law".
Yeeaah, government has to be functioning in order to pay pensions out. Plus, gross misconduct/getting the sack has consequences for a pension. Plus, you can wave a gun about as much as you like, how does that influence the admin chain that delivers salaries into a bank account? Somebody should point this out to them perhaps.
posted by glasseyes at 3:49 AM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Reuters, Exclusive: Trump official quietly drops payday loan case, mulls others - sources
The top cop for U.S. consumer finance has decided not to sue a payday loan collector and is weighing whether to drop cases against three payday lenders, said five people with direct knowledge of the matter
posted by zachlipton at 3:55 AM on March 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


Destruction and fallout continue:
Trump official says US is ‘pro-life country’ at closed-door UN meeting.
An official appointed by President Donald Trump said during a closed-door United Nations meeting that the “US is a pro-life country”, despite the fact both the law and public opinion support a woman’s right to access legal and safe abortion.
Bethany Kozma, a senior adviser in the office of Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment for US Agency for International Development (USAID), made the statement while countries negotiated the final document of the ongoing, annual women’s rights conference.
posted by adamvasco at 4:12 AM on March 23, 2018 [37 favorites]


Have I misunderstood something? Do law enforcement administer their own pensions? What about salaries? If they, of all people, do civil disobedience are they still going to be able to pay their mortgages, buy groceries, send their kids to college? How come? Guns hardly guarantee banking services. Or do I just not understand the American context
posted by glasseyes at 4:12 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


@Jonathan Swan [Axios] - A source close to John Bolton tells me he made no promise to Trump that he "wouldn't start any wars," contrary to reports. "Not true, wasn't discussed," the source says.
posted by bluecore at 5:11 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Bethany Kozma is kind of low-profile--she doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. She is, however, a low-level Bush-administration staffer turned stay-at-home mom turned (link to a Heritage Foundation-funded site) political (link to GLAAD) by... Obama's 'transgender agenda.'

And now she's in the Office of Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment.

The best people.
posted by box at 5:12 AM on March 23, 2018 [29 favorites]




Why... would you feel the need to go out there and deny the idea that you do not want to start wars
posted by saturday_morning at 5:20 AM on March 23, 2018 [48 favorites]


WaPo: Trump’s new female accusers may put him in greater danger
In addition to legal efforts from McDougal and Daniels that might enable them to speak out about their relations with Trump, he is being sued for defamation by Summer Zervos, a former contestant on “The Apprentice” who claims Trump kissed and groped her without her consent, and a judge ruled this week that this suit can proceed. As CNN’s Collinson points out, this means Trump may be facing a period of pretrial discovery and possibly a deposition, which “could put Trump in a perilous position.”

That, plus the prospect of Daniels and McDougal speaking out about Trump, means more public attention to Trump’s treatment of women. Noted Collinson: “Judging by vigorous attempts his lawyers have made to squelch the cases against him, there is considerable concern in Trump’s camp that the thickening legal jungle ensnaring him could come with a high political or legal cost.”

The evidence is mounting on many fronts that the energy, organizing and engagement among female voters — manifested in everything from the initial Women’s March through the #MeToo movement through recent Democratic electoral wins — constitute the cardinal factor in our politics right now. And it seems clear that female alienation from Trump is at the center of it.

Just consider this week’s Quinnipiac University poll, which had relatively good news for Trump. It also found that a staggering 62 percent of women disapprove of his performance, 55 percent strongly. And 55 percent of white women (a majority of whom backed Trump) disapprove, 48 percent strongly. Women want a Democratic House by 56-36. Even white women — a GOP-leaning constituency — favor a Democratic House by 48-44. Separately, new Pew Research Center data shows that among women, identification with the Democratic Party is rising.

Anecdotal evidence and fieldwork have shown that the anti-Trump backlash is heavily driven by mothers and grandmothers who are channeling their anger at Trump into organizing designed to reinvigorate our politics from the grass roots up in communities across the country. And a great deal has been written about how the Democratic victories in places such as Virginia, Alabama and Pennsylvania are being fueled by suburban and college-educated white voters, mostly women.

But Trump’s struggles among female voters may also be chipping away at the foundations of his blue-collar white coalition. As Ron Brownstein recently showed, Trump may even be losing substantial ground among non-college-educated white women, who originally backed Trump in big numbers. This is even happening in the Rust Belt, which could help put some House seats in play outside of the more educated and suburban districts that constitute the low-hanging fruit for Democrats.
posted by chris24 at 5:28 AM on March 23, 2018 [52 favorites]


President Stupid Joker.

It actually would go a long way to explaining his character. And the hair, which, will undoubtedly get thicker and fuller as the end nears.

And what part of McMaster's "preparedness" and "talking" is John Bolton going to avoid, exactly? The minute the first call gets made and the press gaggle vibrates is the minute Trump loses interest, dumps the mess on Bolton, then fires him on the toilet. Which, truth be told, is only right, really.
posted by petebest at 5:31 AM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Why... would you feel the need to go out there and deny the idea that you do not want to start wars

A reputation is a hard thing to regain.
posted by chris24 at 5:37 AM on March 23, 2018


White House lawyer McGahn eager to exit
President Donald Trump’s top White House lawyer, Don McGahn, is expected to step down later this year, though his resignation is contingent on the president finding a replacement and several other factors, according to four sources familiar with McGahn’s thinking.
McGahn, according to two of the sources, has signaled interest in returning to the Jones Day law firm where he previously worked and reprising a role he had during the 2016 campaign by handling legal matters for Trump’s re-election.


Looks like Trump is going to go full moon lawyer.
posted by PenDevil at 6:01 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Why... would you feel the need to go out there and deny the idea that you do not want to start wars

Because that story hurts him with Republicans. He's being brought on to start wars that Republicans want started.

And what part of McMaster's "preparedness" and "talking" is John Bolton going to avoid, exactly?

I think the danger is Bolton doesn't talk to Trump, he just does stuff. Well, talking to Trump dangerous too. Bolton won't give any context or caveats or nonmilitary solutions, he'll just present different attack options and ask Trump to pick which one to start first.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:01 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


The evidence is mounting on many fronts that the energy, organizing and engagement among female voters — manifested in everything from the initial Women’s March through the #MeToo movement through recent Democratic electoral wins — constitute the cardinal factor in our politics right now.

What 2016 would look like if just women voted, Nate Silver, 538, from October 2016. Scroll down for maps.
posted by nangar at 6:01 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


@realDonaldTrump
I am considering a VETO of the Omnibus Spending Bill based on the fact that the 800,000 plus DACA recipients have been totally abandoned by the Democrats (not even mentioned in Bill) and the BORDER WALL, which is desperately needed for our National Defense, is not fully funded.
posted by AwkwardPause at 6:02 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


House and Senate have left DC and deadline is midnight. But sure, you go for it Donny.

@chrislhayes
Trump’s weird, sad, half-assed gaslighting on DACA is a tacit acknowledgment he’s on the wrong side of the issue, politically.
posted by chris24 at 6:03 AM on March 23, 2018 [54 favorites]


Why... would you feel the need to go out there and deny the idea that you do not want to start wars

Why would you phrase it as "no, of course the president never asked his next NSA about wars"?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:06 AM on March 23, 2018


If Trump vetos the omnibus, I think they just might impeach him for making them all come back to Washington. You do not mess with the Senate’s jet fumes.

I’m pretty sure he won’t; he just wants to whine and demonstrate that nothing is his fault, but be prepared for him to continue to complain about Congress letting him down on the wall while simultaneously bragging about how much wall he’s built, with nobody ever calling him out on the contradiction to his face.
posted by zachlipton at 6:08 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


He does know that the fucking Republicans could vote on (and fix) DACA whenever the fuck they want, right? And that as leader of the Republican fucking party he can strongly encourage them to do so? Right?

Oh, sure. This has fucking nothing to do with DACA. Carry on.
posted by lydhre at 6:09 AM on March 23, 2018 [22 favorites]


Seeing all the MAGAhats suddenly capslocking about PROTECT DACA FIX DACA OMG DREAMERS is fucking wild, man.
posted by soren_lorensen at 6:21 AM on March 23, 2018 [56 favorites]


We talk a lot about Democrats caving around here, but I think they would let the government shut down for months rather than “fully fund the BORDER WALL”. The electorate would rightly see the shutdown as being caused by one man alone.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:23 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


uh, congress wouldn't be fixing DACA, they would be fixing the DREAM act. DACA was an executive action, which trump withdrew. trump is holding DACA hostage for the wall and draconian limits on legal immigration. he could "fix" it at any time by re-affirming the executive orders.

so the MAGAhats are begging congress to talk trump out of killing the hostages. delightful.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:26 AM on March 23, 2018 [21 favorites]


Trump is going to veto the spending bill because it doesn't protect the children of undocumented immigrants?
posted by diogenes at 6:26 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


Looks like Trump is going to go full moon lawyer.

Oh my god, imagine if the only lawyers Trump could get were sovereign citizens

I mean in recent months I've come to understand that it's not actually funny to put people who falsely believe the federal government is able to do things into federal government, because instead of coming to the realisation that they were completely wrong, they just ruin everything. But still. Just imagine Trump's best legal council being john-bernard :macklemire, with every legal document smeared with blood and affixed with a postage stamp

On the plus side, they'd probably actually fund the US Postal Service
posted by Merus at 6:26 AM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


Seeing all the MAGAhats suddenly capslocking about PROTECT DACA FIX DACA OMG DREAMERS is fucking wild, man.

See, your first mistake was assuming that most of the tweets amplifying this signal are anything more than Markov chains trained on @realDonaldTrump, broadcasting from Moscow. (You'd usually want to train your bots on something more substantive, but it's easy to get them to sound like Trump when Trump himself is apparently a sentient Markov chain)
posted by Mayor West at 6:27 AM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


Trump himself is apparently a sentient Markov chain)

assumes facts not in evidence.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:28 AM on March 23, 2018 [51 favorites]


Just consider this week’s Quinnipiac University poll, which had relatively good news for Trump. It also found that a staggering 62 percent of women disapprove of his performance, 55 percent strongly. And 55 percent of white women (a majority of whom backed Trump) disapprove, 48 percent strongly. Women want a Democratic House by 56-36. Even white women — a GOP-leaning constituency — favor a Democratic House by 48-44. Separately, new Pew Research Center data shows that among women, identification with the Democratic Party is rising.

Is there any way you guys can prevent white men from voting?
posted by mumimor at 6:31 AM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


We could give them 3/5ths of a vote. Turnabout is fair play
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:33 AM on March 23, 2018 [61 favorites]


Is there any way you guys can prevent white men from voting?

probably not. it's literally the only act of civic participation they routinely perform.

our only chance is to outnumber them, which we fortunately do, in vast numbers. we just have to remember to show up.

says the white man
posted by murphy slaw at 6:34 AM on March 23, 2018 [26 favorites]


I think to some extent Trump or more likely somebody advising him realizes if he trades the DREAM Act for his wall funding, he can use "I protected Dreamers" as a fig leaf to double down on cracking down on immigrants who are not Dreamers, and also "whoops looks like ICE accidentally scooped up some Dreamers but they didn't have proper documentation on them when they were ambushed", and much of the media and electorate will happily look the other way because "he protected the Dreamers". Obviously this isn't a reason to avoid passing the DREAM Act, but be prepared for the line to be very loosely drawn at Dreamers and anything goes outside of that line.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:35 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


Alleged serious person and hero of the Resistant Bob Corker: Please do, Mr. President. I am just down the street and will bring you a pen. The spending levels without any offsets are grotesque, throwing all of our children under the bus. Totally irresponsible.

Corker of course voted for the trillions in Republican tax cuts, which sound an awful lot like "offsets".

Jake Sherman (Politico): People close to the White House believe this veto threat is very real.

Yglesias: They sent out a Statement of Administration Policy yesterday outlining all the reasons the White House supports the bill.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:37 AM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


dude, corker, you and your boys threw all of our children under the bus in december. now you're just arguing over how fast the bus should back over them.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:41 AM on March 23, 2018 [37 favorites]


Chances this person "very close to the president" is David Dennison or John Barron?

@costareports (WaPo)
a person very close to the president tells me he's in the mood to "roll people," see how they react, whether it's his staff or congressional Republican leaders. He's tired of being told he's winning by earnest GOP types, all as newspapers and TV networks are focused on scandal.
posted by chris24 at 6:42 AM on March 23, 2018 [23 favorites]


And of course, his change of heart came after getting his morning briefing on F&F.

@MattGertz
On Fox & Friends this morning, Pete Hegseth said of the omnibus, "this is a swamp budget, this is a Mitch McConnell special," savaged it because "no wall."

VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 6:44 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Brookings Institute (from Lawfare's Polyakova) with our happy future scenarios in the next year or two. We get to be Ukraine 2.0.
posted by rc3spencer at 6:44 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


He's tired of being told he's winning by earnest GOP types, all as newspapers and TV networks are focused on scandal.

tired of constant media attention on the amount of smoke pouring out of the white house, the president has decided to walk out into the rose garden and smoke a cigar while soaked head to toe in gasoline.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:44 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


I’m tired of Fox and Friends being our fourth branch of government.

I sure am curious what Rosenstein has to say in 15 minutes though.
posted by zachlipton at 6:46 AM on March 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


Has no one here mentioned the press conference on a "major cyber law enforcement announcement" coming up at 10am? I've seen discussion of it in various sources ranging from "this is totally about Trump/Russia" to "this has nothing to do with Trump/Russia".

Whatever, it seems like we'll fund out soon enough. The silence about it just feels weird.

(On edit: It seems like it was indeed mentioned once up-thread. Mods feel free to delete this if it's noise.)
posted by jammer at 6:48 AM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Will the DOJ presser be online/live?
posted by AwkwardPause at 6:49 AM on March 23, 2018


Rosenstein presser up shortly.

Watch links:
[DoJ website]
[PBS via YouTube]
[CSPAN website]

Liveblogging over in MeFi chat...
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 6:49 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Egg McMullin tweeted he thinks the fake veto threat (his opinion it's fake) is a possible distraction from what Trump fears/knows is coming from Rosenstein.
posted by chris24 at 6:50 AM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


also, does the president realize that the current continuing resolution expires today, meaning that if he vetoes the omnibus, he's the one who shut down the government? every time this has happened in the past, it was easy to pin the shutdown on an intractable congress. today it would be 100% trump.
posted by murphy slaw at 6:50 AM on March 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


I sure am curious what Rosenstein has to say in 15 minutes though.

Naming Guccifer 2.0 as a Russian intelligence officer, I believe.
posted by scalefree at 6:50 AM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]




"Is there any way you guys can prevent white men from voting?"

I, for one, am pushing a National Lysistrata Protest.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:56 AM on March 23, 2018 [49 favorites]


Perry Bacon & Dhrumil Mehta, 538: Religious Democrats, Young Republicans: What The Stereotypes Miss About Both Parties
...Republicans are not just the party of old, conservative, white evangelicals without college degrees, and Democrats are not simply a coalition of young, secular, liberal, white college grads and nonwhites.

According to Pew, 33 percent of self-identified Democrats1 are whites without a four-year college degree. They represent a larger cohort in the Democratic Party than whites with a four-year degree (26 percent)...

And while the percentage of Democrats who are unaffiliated with any religion is growing and that group now makes up a third of the party, the majority of Democrats consider themselves Christians. And it’s not just black and Hispanic Democrats who account for the party’s churchgoing contingent: White Democrats who belong to “mainline” denominations, such as certain types of Presbyterians and Lutherans (12 percent), white Catholics (10 percent) and white evangelicals (7 percent) together form a is sizable percentage of the party — almost as large as the unaffliliated bloc.

In terms of ideology, 46 percent of Democrats identify as liberal, the highest number Pew has found for that label since at least 2000. That’s a plurality, but it’s still a minority...
posted by nangar at 6:59 AM on March 23, 2018 [18 favorites]


@sahilkapur (Bloomberg)
Democrats aren’t taking the bait on Trump’s omnibus veto threat. Says one senior D aide: “Ask Rs. Their problem. He’s just trying to get a reaction from Dems over something that’s demonstrably false.”

---

And in that vein...

@tedlieu
Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Dear @realDonaldTrump: The Republican controlled Congress jammed a $1.3 trillion bill with over 2,300 pages & forced a vote in less than 24 hours. What is GOP hiding?

I fully support a VETO. The American people--and Members of Congress--deserve to know what is in the bill.

---

And then in response to Robert Costa's "roll them" tweet mentioned above...

@tedlieu
Retweeted Robert Costa
Dear @realDonaldTrump: I support you rolling the Republican controlled Congress. It is unacceptable for #GOP to drop a $1.3 trillion spending bill of over 2300 pages and force a vote in less than 24 hours.

@SpeakerRyan has repeatedly broke his promise of regular order. Roll him.
posted by chris24 at 7:00 AM on March 23, 2018 [41 favorites]


[PBS via YouTube]
Wait. YouTube seriously puts their propaganda-warning box on PBS' videos?
posted by schmod at 7:02 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Oh shit. This is about 9 iranian hackers.

That is going to be a large problem with Bolton as the new NSA.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:07 AM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


oh lord i am super not thrilled that this announcement of rosenstein's involves iranian-state-sponsored hacking given yesterday's bolton appointment
posted by halation at 7:07 AM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Indicting "Iranian hackers". Great.
posted by petebest at 7:07 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


More fuel to justify the inevitable scrapping of the nuclear deal.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:09 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Setting up that casus belli a little early, aren't we?

Geez, writers. This pacing is shit.
posted by Talez at 7:10 AM on March 23, 2018 [34 favorites]


WTF. Rosenstein's announcement is the indictment of 9 Iranians who allegedly hacked a few hundred universities around the world and "stole" research. There doesn't seem to be an indication that research programs were sabotaged, just that information was downloaded. I wonder how much of this was even unpublished or sensitive research and how much of it was just bulk downloading of papers a la Aaron Swartz.

I mean, yeah, sure, hacking is bad, whatever, but this seems like page 6 news at best, not a "major cybercrime." If we go to war with Iran over some fucking grad students' PDFs...christ.
posted by jedicus at 7:14 AM on March 23, 2018 [50 favorites]


Mefi Chat for your realtime garment-rending needs.
posted by petebest at 7:14 AM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


Iran hacks some research papers... WAR!!!

Russia hacks election, power grid... No need to implement the sanctions Congress almost unanimously approved.
posted by chris24 at 7:18 AM on March 23, 2018 [82 favorites]


I guess the "Omnibus Tantrum to distract from new Russia hacking info" was not the winner. Back to "Omnibus Tantrum because Trump is a lying, gaslighting, moronic sack of shit."
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:21 AM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


So now we are going to be threading the needle between state sponsored hacking we want to go to war over and state sponsored hacking we want to ignore/dismiss and it’s just going to be crazy.
posted by Artw at 7:24 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


all white except the caucasians, gotcha
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:33 AM on March 23, 2018 [89 favorites]


Bolton: Pre-emption opponents argue that action is not justified because Pyongyang does not constitute an “imminent threat.” They are wrong. The threat is imminent, and the case against pre-emption rests on the misinterpretation of a standard that derives from prenuclear, pre-ballistic-missile times. Given the gaps in U.S. intelligence about North Korea, we should not wait until the very last minute. That would risk striking after the North has deliverable nuclear weapons, a much more dangerous situation.

Notice how he's saying the "imminent" threat is that North Korea does not have a deliverable nuclear weapon, and that the "gaps in U.S. intelligence about North Korea" -- in other words, lack of proof of imminent threat -- is not an impediment to but rather a reason for a preemptive strike.

"Hawk" doesn't begin to describe him. Bolton is a warmonger who demonstrably does not care about the catastrophic consequences of the wars he advocates.
posted by Gelatin at 7:38 AM on March 23, 2018 [27 favorites]


Loony Left discussion: CEO pay raises are outpacing worker and increasing
posted by The Whelk at 7:38 AM on March 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


New from the Guardian on Cambridge.

Leaked: Cambridge Analytica's blueprint for Trump victory
The blueprint for how Cambridge Analytica claimed to have won the White House for Donald Trump by using Google, Snapchat, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube is revealed for the first time in an internal company document obtained by the Guardian. The 27-page presentation was produced by the Cambridge Analytica officials who worked most closely on Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

A former employee explained to the Guardian how it details the techniques used by the Trump campaign to micro-target US voters with carefully tailored messages about the Republican nominee across digital channels. Intensive survey research, data modelling and performance-optimising algorithms were used to target 10,000 different ads to different audiences in the months leading up to the election. The ads were viewed billions of times, according to the presentation.

The document was presented to Cambridge Analytica employees in London, New York and Washington DC weeks after Trump’s victory, providing an insight into how the controversial firm helped pull off one of the most dramatic political upsets in modern history. “This is the debrief of the data-driven digital campaign that was employed for Mr Trump,” said Brittany Kaiser, 30, who was Cambridge Analytica’s business development director until two weeks ago, when she left over a contractual dispute.

She is the second former employee to come forward in less than a week, talking exclusively to the Guardian about the inner workings of the firm, including the work she said it conducted on the UK’s EU membership referendum. She said she had access to a copy of the same document now obtained by the Guardian, and had used it to showcase the campaign’s secret methods to potential clients of Cambridge Analytica.
posted by chris24 at 7:39 AM on March 23, 2018 [48 favorites]


Don't flood the page with your findings, but people interested in how Facebook and possibly Cambridge Analytica have evaluated them can see their advertising profile here. Check Your Information > Your Categories, and also be sure to look at Hobbies and Interests.

I'm a big fan of Cattle, Thought, Crop and Brick.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:55 AM on March 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


Seeing all the MAGAhats suddenly capslocking about PROTECT DACA FIX DACA OMG DREAMERS is fucking wild, man.

I know things are moving fast this morning but seeing this unfold really helped the meta-narrative make sense to me in a clearer way.

All through 2016 I literally thought I was living through a social-science experiment meant to demonstrate exactly how craven a fraction of the republican voting base was - that evangelicals would line up behind a Olympic-caliber sinner, deficit hawks behind the obvious wall boondoggle, they would spout any bullshit position you wanted. All of it to make clear that their real motivation all this time was to get in line behind the most authoritarian, racist, ignorant farther figure they could.

Now it is becoming increasingly clear that we WERE living through an experiment, in the form of what I think will eventually go down as one of the greatest PsyOps victories in history. The elements of course were always there in the American electorate, but Russia gave them a signal boost that made it impossible to ignore (and ignoring this ugliness is how America, or at least white America, has "handled" this since at least Reconstruction).

(Not to blithely both-sides this but the evidence is that they did the same thing on the Left, and among other things did a pretty great job there of surfacing and signal-boosting the misogyny that had been getting papered over forever as well.)

None of this makes me feel much better but it seems helpful to me to have a frameworks to organize the hourly barrage of bullshit we are enduring. I don't think any of this is truly new but seeing the MAGA dipshits turn on a dime this morning really crystallized something for me.
posted by range at 7:58 AM on March 23, 2018 [50 favorites]


(we need a new thread but i haven't the strength)
posted by murphy slaw at 8:02 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Well, they've tossed out the Iranian hacker story like a Baby Ruth in the pool. I suppose someone should wake Judith Miller if it's going to go anywhere.

So just to recap:
- a foreign country created a private hacking company to hack America
- this is var bad and var seris, kthx
- we've caught the hackers and thank all the institutions who came forward to help
- any foreign country who hacks America better watch its butt!
- It's Iran. Did we say that part? Iran. Not the other one. Iran bad, mmkay.

The press saw right through such a paper-thin pretense to forget about Russian hacking and focus on destroying Iran.
Question 1: "How awesome was it to catch the bad guys, and did you use guns?" (No comment)
Question 2: "Can you tell us who it was that got hacked?" (No)
Question 3: "wait, wait, wait . . . a government can just . . like . . hire people to hack . . other people?? OMG" (*quizzical looks* uhhh . . y-yes?)
Question 4: is Cybersecurity important? Would you say it was very important? (Oh, uh, absolutely. Thanks for coming.)

Then Michael . . sorry, John Bolton ran out and grabbed the mic for a chorus of Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran, but Trump tackled him and screamed "NO COLLUSION!" in the mic and then the feed cut out.
Okay I paraphrased a little at the end there
posted by petebest at 8:02 AM on March 23, 2018 [26 favorites]


I dunno guys I am worried WORRIED W O R R I E D that the Iranian government might have somehow figured out, possibly by meeting one academic one time ever, that if you email us and ask for our research without even saying why that not only will we send it to you we'll start spamming you with new stuff when we think of it.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:17 AM on March 23, 2018 [53 favorites]


well at least the NYT is having some fun. front page head for an article about Pompeo and Bolton is

"New Trump Foreign Policy Team Isn’t Big on Diplomacy"

(not linking because fuck the NYT)
posted by murphy slaw at 8:17 AM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


Politico has a story on how Mattis has survived in the Cabinet without turning into a complete yes-man, titled Why Trump Hasn't Fired Mattis, that opens with an account of the meeting where Tillerson called POTUS "a fucking moron."
“The postwar, rules-based international order is the greatest gift of the greatest generation,” Mattis told the president, according to two meeting attendees. The secretary of defense walked the president through the complex fabric of trade deals, military agreements and international alliances that make up the global system the victors established after World War II, touching off what one attendee described as a “food fight” and a “free for all” with the president and the rest of the group. Trump punctuated the session by loudly telling his secretaries of state and defense, at several points during the meeting, “I don’t agree!” The meeting culminated with Tillerson, his now ousted secretary of state, fatefully complaining after the president left the room, that Trump was “a fucking moron.”
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:19 AM on March 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


For those of you trying to temper your despair with humor, the Duffelblog is at least trying to help.
I am very thankful for the service of General H.R. McMaster who has done an outstanding job & will always remain my friend. There will be an official contact handover on 4/9,” Trump wrote in a tweet of McMaster, who will always remain the president’s friend until 4/10.

Bolton brings considerable national security experience to the job, to include pushing for the invasion of Iraq — which would later be called a resounding success — as well as his work in trying to spur regime change everywhere from North Korea to Iran to Canada.
posted by corb at 8:20 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Huh. I wonder if he wants to bail out while he can and speak out. He's supposed to remain apolitical as an active duty officer. Once retired, he can say what he wants. Also once retired, he can presumably keep his retirement benefits, unlike people who are fired the weekend before said retirement.

Also once retired he can get on the wingnut welfare circuit and possibly a fox news job.
posted by srboisvert at 8:24 AM on March 23, 2018


It's not that now would be a perfect time for Meuller to drop a bomb, but now would be a perfect time for Meuller to drop a bomb.
posted by petebest at 8:24 AM on March 23, 2018 [23 favorites]


Franken tweets for the first time in a month.

@SenFranken
“Lack of candor.” That’s one of the reasons AG Sessions used to justify his decision to fire former FBI Dep. Dir. Andrew McCabe. Ironic bc as you may recall, Jeff Sessions has demonstrated a lack of candor—under oath—about his own interactions w/ Russians. https://www.facebook.com/senatoralfranken/posts/1699670976785444

---

And now faced with Bolton, this is good news.

@mkraju
Feinstein toughens her stance on Haspel to CIA: “To promote someone so heavily involved in the torture program to the top position at the CIA, the agency responsible for one of the darkest chapters in our history, is a move that I’m very wary of.”
posted by chris24 at 8:27 AM on March 23, 2018 [34 favorites]


The secretary of defense walked the president through the complex fabric of trade deals, military agreements and international alliances that make up the global system the victors established after World War II, touching off what one attendee described as a “food fight” and a “free for all” with the president and the rest of the group. Trump punctuated the session by loudly telling his secretaries of state and defense, at several points during the meeting, “I don’t agree!”

Jesus. I'm going to need more wine for this Dr. Strangelove reboot.
posted by deludingmyself at 8:31 AM on March 23, 2018 [24 favorites]


East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94: Don't flood the page with your findings, but people interested in how Facebook and possibly Cambridge Analytica have evaluated them can see their advertising profile here. Check Your Information > Your Categories, and also be sure to look at Hobbies and Interests.

I'm a big fan of Cattle, Thought, Crop and Brick.


OK, I checked my preferences, and they look like some kind of "Settlers of Catan My Subconscious" gameboard with a few expansion packs thrown in: just nouns and disconnected abstracts, plus a dead catholic saint and some foods.

This would make a great MetaTalk thread to blow off steam in, I think.
posted by wenestvedt at 8:31 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Sarah Kendzior's summary of our current situation:

In sum, on the Iran hacks:

* Multiple Trump admin members want war with Iran
* Trump wants to use nuclear weapons
* Yesterday Trump hired Bolton, who wants both war with Iran and pre-emptive nuke strikes
* Pentagon now says the US can use nukes in response to major cyberattacks
posted by Emmy Rae at 8:33 AM on March 23, 2018 [51 favorites]


Hey, remember when Bob Mercer, billionaire and biggest donor/supporter to both Trump and Bolton said nuclear war wasn't that bad and nuclear radiation was actually helpful?

JW: What does he say about the dangers of nuclear war?

JM: He got into an argument with somebody he worked with in which he argued that Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and nuclear war in general, were not as bad as people think. It’s survivable, he argues, and not only that; the radiation from it, he suggests, from the fallout, is good for people. He’d say, “Well, you know, in the blast zone it wasn’t so great for the Japanese,” but outside of the blast zone, he would claim, it was great for the Japanese health.
posted by chris24 at 8:35 AM on March 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


Bolton Was Early Beneficiary of Cambridge Analytica

“The political action committee founded by John Bolton, President Trump’s incoming national security adviser, was one of the earliest customers of Cambridge Analytica, which it hired specifically to develop psychological profiles of voters with data harvested from tens of millions of Facebook profiles,” the New York Times reports. (via PoliticalWire)

Probably coincidence.
posted by petebest at 8:41 AM on March 23, 2018 [39 favorites]


Not just 'psychological profiles' -- the NYT article is worth a read:
Mr. Bolton’s political committee, known as The John Bolton Super PAC, first hired Cambridge in August 2014, months after the political data firm was founded and while it was still harvesting the Facebook data.

In the two years that followed, Mr. Bolton’s super PAC spent nearly $1.2 million primarily for “survey research,” which is a term that campaigns use for polling, according to campaign finance records.

But the contract between the political action committee and Cambridge, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, offers more detail on just what Mr. Bolton was buying. The contract broadly describes the services to be delivered by Cambridge as “behavioral microtargeting with psychographic messaging.
posted by halation at 8:46 AM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


And Wylie goes on:

"“The Bolton PAC was obsessed with how America was becoming limp wristed and spineless and it wanted research and messaging for national security issues,” Mr. Wylie said.

“That really meant making people more militaristic in their worldview,” he added. “That’s what they said they wanted, anyway.”"

There's an example video.
posted by halation at 8:47 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


What was that film that Reagan watched that finally convinced him nuclear war would be a bad thing? Can we pay Fox News to air it during the Fox & Friends time slot?
posted by biogeo at 8:49 AM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


What was that film that Reagan watched that finally convinced him nuclear war would be a bad thing?

The Day After.

Can we pay Fox News to air it during the Fox & Friends time slot?

It only works on people who already have a conscience, however sheltered & shriveled.
posted by scalefree at 8:52 AM on March 23, 2018 [44 favorites]


The Day After or Threads would not convince Trump of anything other than "nukes are super cool" unless they splice in a scene of Trump himself dying of radiation poisoning, in which case his takeaway would be "nukes are super cool except for that one part, so I'll make sure I'm in the bunker."
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:54 AM on March 23, 2018 [30 favorites]


So Bolton doesn't need congressional approval. Is there a mechanism for getting rid of him beyond public outcry?
posted by aspersioncast at 9:01 AM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


"“The Bolton PAC was obsessed with how America was becoming limp wristed and spineless and it wanted research and messaging for national security issues,” Mr. Wylie said.

I know that military service shouldn't be a prerequisite for service, but I really wish that if Bolton drags us into a war that his ass got deployed to the front line leading an infantry platoon. This chickenhawks are just so damn eager to risk other people's lives for their own ego bullshit. People aren't toy soldiers.

Most folks who have served know better.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:03 AM on March 23, 2018 [17 favorites]


So Bolton doesn't need congressional approval. Is there a mechanism for getting rid of him beyond public outcry?

As with Steve Bannon, we probably have to count on Trump getting frustrated and sick of his presence. Congress could repeal the AUMF, but that's been in force for nearly two decades at this point and it doesn't seem likely.
posted by Existential Dread at 9:04 AM on March 23, 2018


* Pentagon now says the US can use nukes in response to major cyberattacks

*doubletake*

uh, much love to Sarah Kendzior but do we have a source for that
posted by murphy slaw at 9:04 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


oh, silly me, it's right here in the updated national nuclear strategy

this was clearly intended as a message to the Russians but this is a genie i would REALLY rather not have out of the bottle at this moment in time
posted by murphy slaw at 9:06 AM on March 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


uh, much love to Sarah Kendzior but do we have a source for that

January NYT: Pentagon Suggests Countering Devastating Cyberattacks With Nuclear Arms
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:06 AM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


now we just have to hope that some of the saner heads at the pentagon will balk at characterizing a few terabytes of journal piracy and some GoT DVD rips as a "devastating cyberattack"

*gulp*
posted by murphy slaw at 9:08 AM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


So Bolton doesn't need congressional approval. Is there a mechanism for getting rid of him beyond public outcry?

He serves at the pleasure of the President. The task is to make him displease Trump:

1) Make constant fun of his moustache
2) Constantly praise his "strong response" position on Russia
3) Generally praise his manliness
4) Play up his ability to control Trump
posted by scalefree at 9:09 AM on March 23, 2018 [43 favorites]


Maybe we need to start calling our senators/reps to ask them to repeal the AUMF? At least make sure our elected* officials know we're paying attention and that we want to make a new war less likely, not more?

*some office holders may not fit this description due to outside interference
posted by Emmy Rae at 9:13 AM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


He serves at the pleasure of the President. The task is to make him displease Trump:

Focus on #4.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:15 AM on March 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


Pentagon now says the US can use nukes in response to major cyberattacks

What sucks about cyberattacks is that attribution is difficult on a good day. If you wanted the U.S. to attack a mortal enemy, you'd fake cyberattacks from that country. You wouldn't have to even do that good a job, because if it was a country we were already itching to attack (Iran for example) we'd cherry-pick the evidence to suit our case for war.

I fear attribution of a nuclear attack would suffer the same fate, since we refuse to get on the same page with the UK on attribution of nerve agents.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 9:23 AM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


could repeal the AUMF, but that's been in force for nearly two decades at this point and it doesn't seem likely.

Let's not forget, Barbara Lee got language repealing the AUMF through the House Appropriations Committee, but that fucker Paul Ryan stripped it.
posted by suelac at 9:23 AM on March 23, 2018 [63 favorites]


every time it's election day and it's an off-year and it's shitty outside and i want to stay in bed, being able to vote for Barbara Lee again gets me to the polls.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:28 AM on March 23, 2018 [27 favorites]


A few months ago, I got a note from Twitter saying basically, "You interacted with a suspicious account" regarding the election. That was it. No other details. So I, presumably like millions of other users, don't know what account it was or if I retweeted in support or got suckered or if I replied to say "lol u suck" or what.

Today, Tumblr decided to go much farther.
First, we’ll be emailing anyone who liked, reblogged, replied to, or followed an IRA-linked account with the list of usernames they engaged with.

Second, we’re going to start keeping a public record of usernames we’ve linked to the IRA or other state-sponsored disinformation campaigns. We’re committed to transparency and want you to know everything that we know.

We’ve decided to leave up any reblog chains that might be on your Tumblrs—you can choose to leave them or delete them. We’re letting you decide because the reblog chains contain posts created by real Tumblr users, often challenging or debunking the false and incideniary claims in the IRA-linked original post. Removing those authentic posts without your consent would encroach on your free speech—and there have been enough disruptions to our conversations as it is.
It goes on to talk about banning propaganda accounts and deleting their posts in the future.

I have to concede this is a tough needle to thread considering their point about debunking and not wanting to stifle the free speech of users responding to it. And yeah, maybe they could do more, maybe they're late on this, etc. But damn if I'm not happy to see somebody taking a better stance than the bare minimum bullshit Twitter has pulled. Tumblr's policies should set the minimum bar for everyone.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:30 AM on March 23, 2018 [69 favorites]


Don't flood the page with your findings, but people interested in how Facebook and possibly Cambridge Analytica have evaluated them can see their advertising profile here. Check Your Information > Your Categories, and also be sure to look at Hobbies and Interests.

There is no way that is all of the data available to advertisers and other purchasers of Facebook data.

I worry that this is whatever you call the opposite of a Potemkin Village -- a shabby and benign-looking front that you put in front of your massive mansion/armed compound, so that anyone stopping by to check your place out says, "Don't worry, it's just a run-down old shack."
posted by msalt at 9:42 AM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


Lol.

@realDonaldTrump
News conference at the White House concerning the Omnibus Spending Bill. 1:00 P.M.

---

RW twitter is flooded with nutjobs telling him to veto. Ingraham, Dobbs, Huckabee, Gorka, Coulter, etc. Most saying Ryan and McConnell are selling him out. But this says Schumer.

@jdawsey1 (WaPo)
Lot of Trump friends and allies are dialing him in the last 24 hours telling him he's going to look bad if he signs the omnibus spending bill and that he will be played for something of a fool by Schumer, per two people with knowledge of the calls.
posted by chris24 at 9:53 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Also, if this is a real news conference, and not just him ranting and then leaving, it'll be the first since February 16, 2017.
posted by chris24 at 9:59 AM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


omg. crazy bastard is gonna do it.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:00 AM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


So the livestream says bill signing, as does a WH official.

Either nobody knows what he’ll do, or he just wanted some attention this morning.
posted by zachlipton at 10:03 AM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


> omg. crazy bastard is gonna do it.

Government shutdown, here we come! Wheeee!

What a way to run a country, when a Republican president vetoes a budget passed by a Republican Senate and a Republican House! And - wait - was it passed by a veto-proof margin?

Actually, I would bet ten bucks that he doesn't have the courage of his convictions to actually veto this bill - he just wants some attention. (Oh, jinx.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:05 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


It’s not a real news conference. Just whoever today’s pool is. Even if he takes questions, it doesn’t count.
posted by zachlipton at 10:05 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


omg. crazy bastard is gonna do it.

But...surely this will be enough for even the Republicans to vote for impeachment? Surely? (I know, I've been "surely this-ing" on Metafilter since 2003... but I still can't quite fathom how he is still in office).
posted by Emera Gratia at 10:06 AM on March 23, 2018


Part of me wants him to veto it, so that the resulting clustershow will shake out these fuckers.

This must be how accelerationists feel all the time.
posted by Horkus at 10:07 AM on March 23, 2018 [15 favorites]




So, he's gonna sign it and cite national defense reasons according to MSNBC.

And lol, MSNBC just showed where he's going to give the speech and on a end table by his lectern is a tall stack of paper, the bill I'm assuming. Prop time!

Genius to highlight how *terrible* a bill is that you're going to sign anyway. Dunning Kruger meet Barbra Streisand.
posted by chris24 at 10:08 AM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


But...surely this will be enough for even the Republicans to vote for impeachment? Surely?

After everything else, why would THIS be it?
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:08 AM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


audio is up on the livestream and they do have a prop version of the bill waiting for him
whatever that's worth
posted by halation at 10:10 AM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Dunning Kruger meet Barbra Streisand.

Sooo.... Krugerrand? "The gold standard in stupid!"
posted by wenestvedt at 10:11 AM on March 23, 2018 [57 favorites]


After everything else, why would THIS be it?

Congressional Republicans have long subscribed to the theory that a Republican president need only the working digits to handle a pen. If the digits no longer work then it’s time to find some that will.
posted by Talez at 10:11 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


And lol, MSNBC just showed where he's going to give the speech and on a end table by his lectern is a tall stack of paper. Prop time!

The big stack of paper is set on what appears to be a velvet-covered box/pedestal, presumably to make it look even taller. This is already very, very stupid.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:11 AM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


The big is so BIG! Look how tall it is! I mean, shouldn't the entire Federal government fit on a note card?
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:13 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


But...surely this will be enough for even the Republicans to vote for impeachment? Surely?

After everything else, why would THIS be it?


For the first few months after the election, my benchmark for "surely this" was on the lines of "I'm afraid we're gonna see Putin roll on a NATO country before Republicans actually do anything about Trump."

After the last year, I don't even really think that would be enough anymore. Like I honestly think if Trump wanted to sell Alaska back to Russia for dollar, Mitch McConnell would mumble some shit about "the American people chose this president" and Paul Ryan would say it's time to get back to the business of relieving Americans of their tax burdens.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:13 AM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


don't watch, it only encourages him. if he wants the country to look at him, he can hold a damn press conference.

or answer a congressional subpoena.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:14 AM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


I will paypal $20 to any reporter that asks if he read all 2300 pages, if he even takes questions.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:16 AM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


honestly, forget the lea michele illiteracy conspiracy; i'll kick in $50 for anyone who asks him to read a page of the bill
just read it there
out loud, live, on camera
posted by halation at 10:20 AM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


AP: Support soars for stricter gun control laws
The poll, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that nearly 7 in 10 adults now favor stricter gun control measures. That’s the strongest level of support since The Associated Press first asked the question five years ago. The new poll also found that nearly half of Americans do not expect elected officials to take action.

“It feels hopeless,” said 30-year-old Elizabeth Tageson-Bedwin, of Durham, North Carolina, a self-described Republican who teaches 7th grade English. “Considering recent events, gun control in this country needs to be stricter — and it can be without infringing on anyone’s rights.”

Overall, 69 percent of Americans think gun laws in the United States should be made stricter. That’s up from 61 percent who said the same in October of 2016 and 55 percent when the AP first asked the question in October of 2013. Overall, 90 percent of Democrats, 54 percent of gun owners and 50 percent of Republicans now favor stricter gun control laws.

Sixty percent believe that making it harder to legally obtain a gun would result in fewer mass shootings; just 49 percent said the same in the 2016 poll.

The new poll finds support for specific gun control measures even among those who bristle at the term “gun control.” “That’s what Hitler did,” said Flora McIntyre, of Simi Valley, California, repeating a common, but inaccurate, line of criticism against gun control measures. “Hitler made everyone register their guns. Then he came and collected all the guns.”

But when asked about specific gun control prescriptions, the 82-year-old retired nurse, who said she owns a rifle and a .44 Magnum, said she favored stronger background checks and limits on the number of bullets allowed in a gun magazine. She also opposes President Donald Trump’s plan to give guns to trained teachers.

The poll shows that McIntyre is not alone. More than 8 in 10 Americans favor a federal law preventing mentally ill people from purchasing guns, along with a federal law expanding background check requirements to include gun shows and private sales.

Nearly 8 in 10 favor allowing courts to prevent people from owning guns if considered a danger to themselves or others, even if they have not been convicted of a crime. And 7 in 10 favor a nationwide ban on devices known as “bump stocks” that allow semi-automatic guns to function like automatic guns.

Nearly 6 in 10 favor a nationwide ban on AR-15-style rifles. “They should take them off the market. Too much power right there,” 25-year-old Sedrick Clark, of St. Louis Missouri, said of AR-15s. Clark, a self-described Republican, said he recently purchased a handgun for protection. But he said he’d support police efforts to go door-to-door to confiscate “dirty guns” from convicted felons and others who shouldn’t have them.
posted by chris24 at 10:21 AM on March 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


Apparently no one adjusted for DST at the WH.
posted by HyperBlue at 10:23 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


I'm increasingly convinced that the theory with the best explanatory power for Trump's actions is to assume that he believes he is in some sort of captive Big Brother/Truman Show scenario.

And if his ratings fall below 50 he explodes.
posted by Buntix at 10:26 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Either nobody knows what he’ll do, or he just wanted some attention this morning.

Yeah, he uses the former to get more of the latter.
posted by notyou at 10:27 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


don't watch, it only encourages him.

* THIS *

Trump, having neither an ideology besides self-promotion nor a plan besides self-enrichment, wants to govern by chaos. Since he has no idea how to actually perform the job of president, he'll settle for enticing everyone to wonder what he'll do next, in the hope that someone will somehow suggest something. His White House tenure has been this way from the beginning and has only worsened. What's maddening is how the media was publicly wringing its hands about how to cover it but now has settled into his rhythm of tantalizing/threatening at first and then backing down or doing the opposite.
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:31 AM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


"Bill is a ridiculous situation that no one has been able to read."

"We have military equipment like no one else does. And just last week we agreed to to sell hundreds of billions of it to Saudi Arabia." Umm...

And asks for a line item veto and ending filibuster.
posted by chris24 at 10:31 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


There’s a TV on here and he’s rambling elliptically, it’s military, Democrats, military, drmocrats but he also comes back to ending filibuster rules.
posted by Artw at 10:32 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Great. Mad Dog talking about how this new military budget 'reverses years of declining and unpredictable funding'.

Cool.
posted by lazaruslong at 10:35 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Wasn’t the line item veto ruled unconstitutional? I’m pretty sure we didn’t all hallucinatate a Supreme Court case.
posted by zachlipton at 10:35 AM on March 23, 2018 [17 favorites]


(nobody even threatened to filibuster this bill. also, they wouldn’t even give St. Reagan the line-item veto, give up. also a line-item veto would require you to read the damn bill, so don’t pretend you’d use it.)
posted by murphy slaw at 10:36 AM on March 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


He said "I will never sign another bill like this again". So bookmark that for September.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:37 AM on March 23, 2018 [26 favorites]


we're dealing with a person with a very tenuous grasp of what a wall is; i don't imagine he's up on constitutional caselaw, even twenty-year-old caselaw
posted by halation at 10:38 AM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


Trump’s justification for signing the omnibus bill is that he’s forced to do it for national security, and he will never be willing to sign a similar bill in the future. Even if he is forced to, for national security. That seems... unlikely?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:38 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


He also wants a line-item veto. Given the insane neglect of far too many government programs throughout his proposed budget, this would give him the ability to make that insane vision happen.
posted by scalefree at 10:38 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


Guys, cool it with the liveblogging. Post all the highlights when it's over.
posted by runcibleshaw at 10:39 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Reuters, Exclusive: Trump official quietly drops payday loan case, mulls others - sources
The top cop for U.S. consumer finance has decided not to sue a payday loan collector and is weighing whether to drop cases against three payday lenders, said five people with direct knowledge of the matter
posted by zachlipton at 3:55 AM on March 23 [17 favorites +] [!]


Solidarity of the grifting class. Seriously. This Trump guy seems to love every sleazy moneygrubber out there. Why, oh, why do the ragged masses love him so? Oh, right. Racism.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:40 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


A quick look on Twitter suggest the Russia-bots have pushing for #lineitemveto since at least last night, so someone thinks this is an approach worth pushing.
posted by stopgap at 10:44 AM on March 23, 2018 [30 favorites]


Serious question for YouTube users: Has anyone else had a bunch of Fox News live streams pop up in their recommended feeds in the last couple of days?

I feel asleep watching How it's Made the other night and got woken up to a live (but not official) feed of Fox News blaring and Trump's fat mug on the screen like some kind of Orwellian nightmare.

While I've had various "live" streaming news channels show up as their own channel recommendation (especially during major news events) I've never had A) Any news stream at all ever in my actual recommendations, B) any live streams pushed to my recommendations and C) any news OR live streams end up in autoplay recommendations.

After removing the video and doing the whole "tell us why" thing, this morning the same goddamn feed from the same user was in my recommendations today along with another live Fox feed.

Note that no other "news" channels or live streams are showing up at all. No BBC, no RT, no CNN. Just Fox. Only Fox.

Either YouTube is allowing individual users to purchase recommendation list positions, or they're pushing Fox internally, or someone really figured out how to ring all the bells and whistles and game the recommendation system and they're using it to push the hell out of Fox.


So, yeah. Y'all now realize we've been a hot cyberwar for like the last 10 years or more, no? I think there's a very good reason why everything is so screwy, and it has everything to do with the well of reason and logic being intentionally poisoned and manipulated by bad actors.

Turns out the most valuable target on the net isn't power plants, military installations or government archives. It's people. It's always been people.
posted by loquacious at 10:47 AM on March 23, 2018 [68 favorites]


The Republicans, of course, would be happy to see a Democratic president with line-item veto power, able to axe their budget priorities with the stroke of a pen ("bye-bye, abstincence education...").

What, no? Then their grandstanding is nothing but hot air.
posted by Gelatin at 10:50 AM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Who'da thunk it?

CNN: DiGenova role on President's legal team in flux
Veteran Washington attorney Joseph diGenova's role as part of President Donald Trump's legal team is still in question, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

DiGenova's hiring was announced on Monday by Jay Sekulow, counsel to the President. DiGenova, along with his wife and law partner, Victoria Toensing, had a Thursday meeting with the President, the sources said. Even so, diGenova's role, as well as that of Toensing who is also in discussions about joining the team, are in flux. One source said no one has been officially hired.

The Thursday meeting was the first time the husband-and-wife legal team met with the President since the Monday announcement. One source said that while Trump liked their message, the President is not convinced they are right for the legal jobs.

On Monday, after word that diGenova was coming on board, Sekulow said in a statement, "Former US Attorney for the District of Columbia Joe DiGenova will be joining our legal team later this week. I have worked with Joe for many years and have full confidence that he will be a great asset in our representation of the President." A source familiar with the plans said on Monday that diGenova's role was to engage with the media and actively defend the President.

But there is concern about conflicts for both diGenova and Toensing, according to two sources. The two run a small firm and there is a question if diGenova can reasonably claim a lack of conflict when his wife represents clients like Mark Corrallo, who has spoken to special counsel Robert Mueller's team about how the President and his team responded to the revelations regarding the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting that Donald Trump Jr. and other campaign officials had with a group of Russians.

Toensing also represents former Trump campaign national co-chair Sam Clovis, who has faced scrutiny for his connection to campaign foreign policy team member George Papadopoulos, two sources said. NBC News reported Clovis talked to the special counsel. Toensing has asked her clients to sign waivers regarding the conflicts, CNN is told by one person familiar with the matter, but that may not be sufficient to assuage the concerns.
posted by chris24 at 10:51 AM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


i don’t see how we can even begin to gain ground in the propaganda war when the President is the most credulous consumer of propaganda in the entire country.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:52 AM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


This is historic: this is surely the first time that any president has signed a bill into law while lamenting that no-one has read it, least of all himself. In doing so he was appealing to a demographic for whom the idea of reading and considering complex things is manifestly absurd.

And, what use is a line item veto, if you don’t read the line items?
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:53 AM on March 23, 2018 [37 favorites]


Telling everyone you're doing a thing because you are forced to do it by people you have insisted are weaklings is not a great look for a wannabe strongman.
posted by notyou at 10:56 AM on March 23, 2018 [72 favorites]


DiGenova role on President's legal team in flux

So this would mean the president's personal legal team currently consists of [checks scorecard] nobody. The president has no lawyers.
posted by mikepop at 10:59 AM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


Telling everyone you're doing a thing because you are forced to do it by people you have insisted are weaklings is not a great look for a wannabe strongman.

Maybe not a great look, but it's the rule for fascism.

However, the followers must be convinced that they can overwhelm the enemies. Thus, by a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:03 AM on March 23, 2018 [49 favorites]


Hey, remember way back to yesterday when a judge appointed by Scott Walker said his rationale for not holding special elections was bullshit and they needed to hold them? The WI GOP is going to change the laws and regulations so they don't have to.

@jessieopie
.@SenFitzgerald: GOP leaders are working on legislation to respond to Judge Reynolds’ ruling on special elections. Says the ruling will lead to “chaos” in the two open districts. #wipolitics
- .@SenFitzgerald: "The logistics of this is, it's very messy. I don’t think Judge Reynolds considered that at all, how this would actually transpire in the real world."
- .@SenFitzgerald says the goal is to "clean up" the policy on special elections. The goal is also to pass this law before @GovWalker would call special elections as ordered by Judge Reynolds, to prevent that from happening.
- .@SenFitzgerald on special elections ruling: "Eric Holder rolls into town with a lot of out of state money and says listen, we want this to happen right now, and that’s why I think we find ourselves in the position where Judge Reynolds was able to rule the way that she did."
- .@SenFitzgerald: "(District 5) has become the laughingstock of the state of Wisconsin. No matter who goes to Dane County Circuit Court, not only are Republicans going to lose, but you’re going to have somebody from the bench now politicizing that."
- .@SenFitzgerald says he wants Chief Justice Patience Roggensack to discipline Dane County Circuit Judge Josann Reynolds for "politicizing" her ruling in special elections case, says her comments in the writ were inexcusable.
- .@SenFitzgerald: "We're going to vote, and there's going to be an election right around the corner ... Nobody’s trying to slow down or halt anything related to an election. What we’re trying to do is make sure this make sense."
posted by chris24 at 11:05 AM on March 23, 2018 [25 favorites]


Sooo.... Krugerrand? "The gold standard in stupid!"

Krugeraynrand.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:09 AM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Wasn’t the line item veto ruled unconstitutional?

It used to be constitutional. In the Confederate Constitution.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:12 AM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


Huh. Maybe from now on whenever a conservative claims to be a 'strict constitutionalist' we should ask them to clarify which constitution they're referring to.
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:19 AM on March 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


A dark day for governmental theatre.
posted by petebest at 11:27 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


don’t see how we can even begin to gain ground in the propaganda war when the President is the most credulous consumer of propaganda in the entire country.

I mean this is the real thing. People are all “call your Congressman!” And I’m kind of stuck on, “Can’t we fake news reports that Bolton once insulted the President about his physical appearance?” He’s completely susceptible to propaganda. I’m not sure there’s anything else even there beyond that.
posted by corb at 11:32 AM on March 23, 2018 [17 favorites]


A dark day for governmental theatre.

Silver linings...

@AnnCoulter
CONGRATULATIONS, PRESIDENT SCHUMER!

@AnnCoulter
“ I will never sign another bill like this again” Yeah, because you’ll be impeached.

@AnnCoulter
IT'S 3-D CHESS! (There's never going to be a wall.)
posted by chris24 at 11:33 AM on March 23, 2018 [17 favorites]


We don't really have proof yet that Russian troll farms coordinated messaging with the Trump campaign. But I think they did. In the US election, talking points used by trolls (a lot whom were probably employed by the Russian govt.) seemed targeted to play on the discontents of different subgroups of Democrats in order to depress Democratic turnout, portraying the Hillary campaign as having contempt for working-class Democrats and wanting us out of the Party, trying to exacerbate the impression that the Democratic Party takes black voters for granted and doesn't care about them, and mocking the concerns of millennial voters. The design of the most of the troll talking points I saw and was subjected to in 2016 suggests a very good understanding of US politics and what different groups of people are fearful and disgruntled about. These kinds of attacks enraged me, as intended, but they didn't persuade me to stay home on election day. I'm worried they may have been more effective with younger voters, who'd be less familiar with Hillary Clinton's actual track record just because of their age, and less politically engaged Democrats.

The Russian government also put a lot of effort into getting Le Pen elected in France. Their efforts were often hamfisted, and displayed little understanding of French culture and politics. I know about these attempts because the French media was openly making fun them. (They tried to get Macron with a gay sex / infidelity scandal – Oh, no. they didn't! The absolute fucking idiots! Le Pen, the candidate they were trying to support, isn't a complete idiot and her campaign wouldn't touch that story with a ten-foot pole. Russian efforts to help her may have hurt her more than they helped.) I think this is the difference between a coordinated campaign and an uncoordinated one.

I think the combination of Americans' voting records obtained by Russian hackers by breaking into US state election boards' and election commissions' databases, along with massive amounts of Facebook data fraudulently obtained by Cambridge Analytica, and strategies for targeting different segments of US electorate based on a real understanding of US politics (also from CA), allowed Russian troll farms, and CA, to wage an effective and well targeted campaign to get Trump elected and depress Democratic turnout, while in France similar efforts were a complete flop.
posted by nangar at 11:34 AM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


I’ve Seen John Bolton Up Close. Yep, Be Afraid., MARK LEON GOLDBERG at the Daily Beast.

I'm still confused (after more than a year) about these gossipy sites that come up with real stuff. The whole comment is worth reading, so this is a random outtake:
At the time, he seemed to relish in the chaos that he had sown. During late-night press encounters, he would quip “All night, all right!” as if his goal was less to negotiate in good faith and more to just drag out the negotiations as a deadline loomed.

Eventually, as I reported at the time, then-Secretary General Kofi Annan got so fed up with Bolton’s antics that he called then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and asked her to rein him in. She did. The reform packages passed at the eleventh hour.

There is no Condoleezza Rice in this administration.
As it is, I'm persuading myself that the Trump administration is too incompetent to be dangerous. I never entirely understood how Bush/Cheney could make the Iraq case, but I did know people who bought it, including high level people. Now, no one I have met believes in anything Trump says. And even though the US can go alone, it would really change a lot of relations that are essential to US power in the long run. Imagine a situation where not one single NATO member would support a war. Or a war against North Korea that South Korea opposes.
posted by mumimor at 11:34 AM on March 23, 2018 [20 favorites]


Has Ann Coulter always been critical of Trump? I feel like I'm missing some context.
posted by Fleebnork at 11:34 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Has Ann Coulter always been critical of Trump? I feel like I'm missing some context.

She was and is a huge supporter. But now that he's acting like a typical Republican politician and not a complete racist fascist fuck, she's all "leopard, my face."

Anyway, any day she's pissed isn't a completely bad day.
posted by chris24 at 11:36 AM on March 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


Has Ann Coulter always been critical of Trump?

In Trump We Trust: E Pluribus Awesome!
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:36 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


now that he's being a typical Republican politician and not a complete racist fascist fuck

Cite?
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:40 AM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Ann Coulter is a essentially a single issue voter and that issue is "The Wall" so she gets publically angry whenever maximalist Wall policy is not followed.
posted by mmascolino at 11:42 AM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


Cite?

In her worldview. He signed the bill and didn't shut down the government to force full funding of the wall, elimination of chain migration, and immediate forced expulsion of all Dreamers.
posted by chris24 at 11:44 AM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


There is no Condoleezza Rice in this administration.

I'm so sad that I recognize you meant this in a negative way. We don't even have relatively competent war criminals in charge.
posted by petebest at 11:52 AM on March 23, 2018 [50 favorites]


I'm so sad that I recognize you meant this in a negative way. We don't even have relatively competent war criminals in charge.

Somewhere in the Catskills: “These war criminals are really terrible!” “Yeah, I know. And so incompetent!”
posted by stopgap at 11:56 AM on March 23, 2018 [56 favorites]


Has Ann Coulter always been critical of Trump? I feel like I'm missing some context.

She always gets pissed when Trump focuses on anything other than deporting immigrants. For instance, after Trump bombed that air field in Syria last year:

@AnnCoulter

I expected to spend this part of the Trump presidency tweeting that it's legal to deport anchor babies not arguing agst another Mid East war
4:04 PM - 6 Apr 2017
posted by joedan at 11:57 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Trump is extremely racist, but not as a foundational value. Coulter would give up meaningful things, e.g fame and success, if her Nazi dreams happened as a tradeoff. Trump wouldn't, because his self-interest (and associated complex of issues) always come first.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 11:59 AM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Schumer comms director...

@mattwhouse
I, for one, am tired of all the winning.

---

@Cernovich
Congratulations to my liberal friends.

You are getting Congress back.

I hope your party does more for you than @realDonaldTrump has done for his supporters.
posted by chris24 at 12:01 PM on March 23, 2018 [16 favorites]


Isn't Ann Coulter just a reactionary troll rather than a true believer? Like hasn't she literally admitted as much?
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:02 PM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


Lazy copy + paste from an American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) email that doesn't seem to be copied online just yet:

FY 2018 Omnibus Appropriations Package
March 22, 2018

Overview
• All FAST Act funding commitments supported by the Highway Trust Fund are met for FY 2018
o $44.2 billion in Federal Highway Administration programs
o $9.7 billion in Federal Transit Administration formula programs
o $845 million in Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration programs
o $747 million in National Highway Traffic Safety Administration programs
• For transportation, the $10 billion infrastructure designation from the budget deal is translated into additional program funding as follows:
o $2.565 billion for Federal-aid Highway Programs
o $864 million for transit formula programs
o $1 billion in Airport Improvement Program discretionary grants
o $2.565 billion for transit Capital Investment Grants program, up from $2.413 billion last year
o $1.5 billion for TIGER discretionary grants, up from $500 million last year
o $1.942 billion for Amtrak, up from $1.495 billion last year
o $863 million for rail grant programs, up from $98 million last year
• Includes a six month extension of FAA programs, through September 30, 2018

Highways
• $44.2 billion of obligation limitation for FAST Act contract authority programs
• $2.525 billion in additional general fund dollars available until September 30, 2021, composed of:
o $1.98 billion in highway funding distributed to the states by formula (in the same ratio they receive Federal-aid Highway Obligation Limitation).
- This funding can be used for “construction” projects eligible for funding under the Surface Transportation Block Grant Program.
- 53 percent of this funding is “suballocated” by population using the formula established in the Surface Transportation Block Grant Program.
o $300 million for federal lands and tribal transportation
o $20 million for Puerto Rico and other territories
o $225 million for a new discretionary grant program for bridges in states that have less than 100 people per square mile, with a focus on cost savings achieved through bundling of multiple projects
• Does NOT include a new rescission of highway contract authority for FY 2018; however, the bill also does not address the $7.6 billion rescission set for July 2020 under the FAST Act
• Requires states to facilitate installation of broadband infrastructure, commonly referred to as “dig once,” by:
o Identifying a broadband utility coordinator at a state agency
o Establish a process for registration of broadband infrastructure entities interested in access to rights-of-way, and notify such entities of projects in the Statewide Transportation Improvement Program each year
o There is no federal funding for these activities, but there is also no requirement to install broadband infrastructure
• Continues to allow states to repurpose old earmarks that are at least 10 years old, with no more than 10 percent of funds obligated
• Continues flexibility to use the Clearview font on highway signs
• Adjusts truck size and weight limits for North Dakota and New Hampshire
• Designates I-57 in Arkansas and Missouri
• Allows toll revenue flexibility for certain facilities in West Virginia, Maryland, and Kansas

Transit
• $9.7 billion in obligation limitation for FAST Act contract authority programs
• $834 million in additional general fund dollars available until expended, composed of:
o $400 million in Section 5337 State of Good Repair formula grants
o $400 million in Section 5339 Bus and Bus Facilities formula and discretionary programs
o $30 million in Section 5340 High Density State formula grants
o $4 million in bus testing
• $2.645 billion for Capital Investment Grants
o $1.5 billion for New Starts projects
o $716 million for Core Capacity projects
o $401 million for Small Starts projects
• $5 million for FTA training and technical assistance
• $150 million for Washington Metro

Rail
• $1.942 billion for Amtrak
o $650 million for Northeast Corridor
o $1.292 billion for National Network
o $2 million for the State-Amtrak Intercity Passenger Rail Committee
• $813 million in FAST Act intercity rail grants
o $543 million in Consolidated Rail grants, up from $68 million last year
o $250 million in State of Good Repair Partnership grants, up from $25 million last year
o $20 million in Restoration and Enhancement grants, up from $5 million last year
• $25 million in credit subsidy for the Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing (RRIF) program
• Allows use of highway CMAQ dollars on state-supported passenger rail routes

Aviation
• FAA programs are extended by six months, from March 31, 2018, to September 30, 2018
• $18 billion for Federal Aviation Administration programs, a $1.6 billion increase from last year
• $1 billion of general fund dollars added for the Airport Improvement Program, but only for discretionary grant programs prioritizing nonprimary, non-hub, and small-hub airports
• $155 million in Essential Air Service subsidies, up from $150 million last year
• No increase in Passenger Facility Charges

With all these increases, I have two thoughts: the GOP is betting that the Dems will take back control, in the midterms or in 2022, and are now treating the budget as Other People's Problems, or they're going to try and use these spending increases to win GOP support ("hey, we maintained/increased funding for [your interest area], concerned constituent!") for the midterm (which also serves as a way to drive a wedge between themselves and Trump), and will cut things later, quietly. Or loudly, if OMG DEBT BURDEN becomes the topic du jour.

Because why else would small government touting Republicans ramp up the debt after cutting taxes? They set themselves up to say "oh no, I'm sorry about [your interest area], but we have to cut it because money is tight now" and pretend that the fiscal constraints aren't solely because of their tax scam. Instead they seem to be saying "who cares, we can print more money! We're the government! Wheee!"
posted by filthy light thief at 12:08 PM on March 23, 2018 [20 favorites]


I think this was the plan all along no? Cut taxes, increase spending, create huge deficits that justify massive cuts to safety net programs?
posted by Mei's lost sandal at 12:12 PM on March 23, 2018 [24 favorites]


Isn't Ann Coulter just a reactionary troll rather than a true believer? Like hasn't she literally admitted as much?

I think that was just an episode of The Boondocks. Warning: lots of cursing and general boondockness.
posted by RolandOfEld at 12:18 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Instead they seem to be saying "who cares, we can print more money! We're the government! Wheee!"

I'm pretty sure that was the unofficial motto of every Republican administration I've ever seen. At least Reagan, Reagan, Bush I, Bush II, Bush II. "Fiscal conservative" was believable for a couple of years, then a polite fiction, then a fiction, and now just a grotesque. The One Weird Trick of conservatism.
posted by petebest at 12:21 PM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


don’t see how we can even begin to gain ground in the propaganda war when the President is the most credulous consumer of propaganda in the entire country.

I mean this is the real thing. People are all “call your Congressman!” And I’m kind of stuck on, “Can’t we fake news reports that Bolton once insulted the President about his physical appearance?” He’s completely susceptible to propaganda. I’m not sure there’s anything else even there beyond that.


He's probably vulnerable to someone interrupting Fox News programming and broadcasting fake Fox News shows in their place.
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:26 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


LAT: China announces retaliatory tariffs on 128 U.S. products, including California wine, almonds
China on Friday announced it would impose retaliatory import tariffs on 128 U.S. products — goods that amount to $3 billion — targeting staples that include California wines, fruits, and almonds.

The move follows President Trump's decision this week to slap tariffs on about $50 billion worth in Chinese goods, triggering a potentially damaging trade confrontation with Beijing.

[...]

The Chinese tariffs would first hit U.S. products such as avocados and nuts, with 15% tariffs. Beijing, if officials deemed it worthwhile, could also place 25% tariffs on American-made goods such as pork and aluminum. Friday's statement did not indicate a specific date the tariffs would go into effect, but noted businesses had until March 31 to offer opinions. It said officials would "take legal action within the framework of the World Trade Organization."

[...]

"We are technically in rhetorical territory here," said Andrew Polk, co-founder of Trivium China, a Beijing-based research firm. "There is a small window to effect policy… they're going to make a little noise, but then they're going to let U.S. industry and the stock market do the talking for them."
We're not quite at the actual tariffs on stuff yet (other than washing machines and solar panels), but yes please industry get on the phone with Fox and Friends and explain how much a trade war will hurt US consumers and US business. Also please will a Cato economist explain to them that a trade deficit also means a capital surplus (cheap money for growth!)?
posted by notyou at 12:28 PM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


Lots of responsibility for a coffee boy.

WaPo: ‘You should do it.’ Trump officials encouraged George Papadopoulos’s foreign outreach, documents show
When a Russian news agency reached out to George Papadopoulos to request an interview shortly before the 2016 election, the young adviser to then-candidate Donald Trump made sure to seek approval from campaign headquarters.

“You should do it,” deputy communications director Bryan Lanza urged Papadopoulos in a September 2016 email, emphasizing the benefits of a U.S. “partnership with Russia.” The exchange was a sign that Papadopoulos — who pushed the Trump operation to meet with Russian officials — had the campaign’s blessing for some of his foreign outreach.

Since Papadopoulos pleaded guilty last year to lying to the FBI about his Russia contacts during the campaign and agreed to cooperate with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, Trump officials have sought to paint the 30-year old energy consultant as a low level volunteer whose outreach to Russia was not authorized by the campaign — and in some cases, was actively discouraged.

But emails described to The Washington Post, which are among thousands of documents turned over to investigators examining Russia’s interference in the 2016 campaign, show that Papadopoulos had more extensive contact with key Trump campaign and presidential transition officials than has been publicly acknowledged.

Among those who communicated with Papadopoulos were senior campaign figures such as chief executive Stephen K. Bannon and adviser Michael Flynn, who corresponded with him about his efforts to broker ties between Trump and top foreign officials, the emails show.

As late as December 2016, as President-elect Trump was preparing to take office, Papadopoulos tried to serve as a conduit for the defense minister of Greece, transmitting what he said was a proposal for a strategic alliance from the Russian-allied Greek official that was reviewed by both Bannon and Flynn, then in line to be national security adviser.
posted by chris24 at 12:30 PM on March 23, 2018 [23 favorites]


China on Friday announced it would impose retaliatory import tariffs on 128 U.S. products — goods that amount to $3 billion — targeting staples that include California wines, fruits, and almonds.

Wrong state, idiots.
posted by Talez at 12:30 PM on March 23, 2018 [28 favorites]


I'm sure it's difficult to explain to the Chinese government that the ruling party of the United States hates many of those states more than it loves money.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:32 PM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


Josh Marshall, The Crisis Is Upon Us (trigger warning for...everything):
People spend lots of time speculating about the President’s frustration and impatience with the Russia probe when the real story is clear and simple. He’s guilty. His family is guilty. The closer the investigation gets the more palpable the threat and the greater the need both to protect himself and to act out. Through the alchemy of the President’s deranged mind, mounting legal peril is driving greater military adventure – not necessarily as a vehicle of distraction (though that may be involved too) but to preserve and enhance a domain where the President’s will and freedom are untrammeled and enabled. Feeling dominated by Bob Mueller is driving the President to find other spheres where his power and freedom are untouched.
...
The future of the country now rests on the results of the 2018 midterms. That sounds dramatic and hyperbolic. But look at the forces moving into alignment. It’s not. It’s an apt description of what is before us. The trouble is that even in the rosiest scenario any change on that front is ten months away. Immense damage can occur between now and then, and likely will.
So that’s nice.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:35 PM on March 23, 2018 [57 favorites]


I'm sure it's difficult to explain to the Chinese government that the ruling party of the United States hates many of those states more than it loves money.

"We like to call California 'The American Taiwan'."

See? That was easy.
posted by hanov3r at 12:36 PM on March 23, 2018 [26 favorites]


WaPo: ‘You should do it.’ Trump officials encouraged George Papadopoulos’s foreign outreach, documents show
Around the same time, Papadopoulos began communicating with Bannon about messages he was receiving from a contact at the Egyptian embassy about that country’s interest in organizing a meeting between President Abdel Fatah al-Sissi and Trump.

The emails show Papadopoulos was the first to alert the campaign to al-Sissi’s interest in meeting and then connected top campaign leadership to the Egyptian embassy.

In a statement, a spokesman for the Egyptian embassy confirmed that an embassy official contacted Papadopoulos as a way to reach the Trump campaign.

Bannon requested talking points from Papadopoulos for the meeting, sought a phone call with him to discuss it and ultimately asked Papadopoulos to contact the embassy to alert an official when a time was finalized, the emails show. Papadopoulos’s role in the meeting was first reported by the New York Times.

“This is a great move on our side. A home run,” Papadopoulos wrote to Bannon, in an email that has not previously been reported.

“Agree,” Bannon responded. “But very hard sell to DJT.”

Trump and al-Sissi met the next night at the Plaza Hotel in New York City. The session put the GOP nominee on a par with Clinton, who had previously announced she would be meeting with the Egyptian leader while he was in town. Sessions and Flynn also attended the Trump meeting.

“We met for a long time, actually. There was a good chemistry there,” Trump told Fox Business’s Lou Dobbs the next day.
posted by chris24 at 12:39 PM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


We produce 80% of the world's almond supply, so uhhh...good luck with that.
posted by elsietheeel at 12:40 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


These kinds of attacks enraged me, as intended, but they didn't persuade me to stay home on election day. I'm worried they may have been more effective with younger voters, who'd be less familiar with Hillary Clinton's actual track record just because of their age, and less politically engaged Democrats.

I agree with this. My job and the people I'm around regularly skews young and male (I am not) and I think this stuff was effective among many in that demographic. Like you, it didn't keep me from voting (well, I WANTED to vote for HRC). But one really bad effect this definitely had on me was that I often kept my mouth shut about HRC. Not only was the propaganda against her effective in convincing certain people of her evil, it was effective in making those people affected by it into irrational rageballs that I so did not want to get into a debate with. And I felt like I didn't really need to, at the end of the day, because come on- no matter how much you claim she sucks, look at your other option. Right? But I regret that now. I wish I would have stood up more and told people why they were wrong and how they should be responsible and vote for her anyway because Trump. But I didn't want to be on the receiving end of sexist vitriol about HRC. So despite the fact that I didn't believe the propaganda, and voted for her, it was effective against me anyway because it crippled my confidence in being more outspoken in my support of her. I can't be the only one. I regret it. This surely had an effect.
posted by robotdevil at 12:41 PM on March 23, 2018 [92 favorites]


Dara Lind, Vox: Donald Trump proves his omnibus veto threat was just a temper tantrum
The only thing more insulting than using DACA as a fig leaf for a veto threat was the fact that everyone knew he’d back down anyway.
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:41 PM on March 23, 2018 [14 favorites]


wenestvedt: "This would make a great MetaTalk thread to blow off steam in, I think."

Here it is
.

elsietheeel: "We produce 80% of the world's almond supply, so uhhh...good luck with that."

Even if a significant tariff only means China reduces imports that will probably have a depressive effect on prices. Almonds are probably a good with a pretty price elastic demand.
To that end they are a perfect retaliatory strike in a trade war; trading a relatively inelastic good like steel for almonds. The former will have ripple effects through the US economy, the latter will mean Chinese consumers will be sad they can't eat as many almonds.
posted by Mitheral at 12:53 PM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


My job and the people I'm around regularly skews young and male (I am not) and I think this stuff was effective among many in that demographic.

I think it was definitely targeted towards weakening the younger voter demographic. I should have been more suspicious about the "I'm a young PoC queer woman, and I HATE that corrupt, warmongering Hillary/DCC." Some of them may have been real and genuinely influenced by propaganda, but I really wonder how many of them actually exist. I'm tempted to go back and try texting some of those accounts.

And now in the conversation about Pelosi aren't we seeing the same thing with the "We need to get young blood in that position" line? Where is THAT idea coming from?
posted by happyroach at 12:58 PM on March 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


Aren't almond farms sucking up a significant portion of California's potable water? I like them, but if this means people grow fewer of them in a place with major water issues, it might not be the worst thing in the world.
posted by Copronymus at 1:00 PM on March 23, 2018 [18 favorites]


< tinfoil > The administration's friends in China, by way of Kushner and others, were asked to emphasize that California in particular would get punished. < / tinfoil >

Regardless, five bucks says Donald will say something along the lines of "take that, California!"

showbiz_liz: Isn't Ann Coulter just a reactionary troll rather than a true believer? Like hasn't she literally admitted as much?

That may be true and I may be misreading her completely.

In a society where full-blown Nazism remains (mostly) frowned upon, it can be hard to distinguish "actual KKK" from "just fucking around", because their behaviors and motivations fully align. Mere trolls benefit by pretending they're "really" Nazis (the better to anger people) and true-believer white supremacists benefit by pretending they're "really" trolls (the better to not arouse our suspicion).

(Trump himself is in an amorphous, overlapping third category, because both trolls and Nazis reflect aspects of narcissism, which is his underlying essence.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:05 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


Here's a 2016 WaPo article about water, almond production, and prices.

They sold fewer nuts, but made up for the harvest shortfalls by selling them at a premium—a simple adjustment to the shift in supply. They also passed the cost of the irrigation needed to combat the drought onto consumers. And everyone paid the extra bit, at least at first.

"Agricultural products tend to be inelastic," Crowder explained. "When the supply shifts, the price changes accordingly, because people still buy more or less the same amount."

In the case of almonds, volume sales fell by about the same amount as the crop yield fell, but dollar sales remained strong. People, in other words, bought the almonds that were available, as they had in the past, but paid more for each because there were fewer.

But then the American dollar began to strengthen, flexing its muscles against foreign currencies, like the euro and renminbi, turning high but manageable prices into headaches for anyone purchasing almonds abroad. And the thing is: many people do—somewhere between 60 and 70 percent of almonds produced in the United States are exported, the vast majority of which go to Europe and China.


So does that mean almonds are going to get super cheap again? Will they start an eat almonds for America campaign?
posted by elsietheeel at 1:06 PM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


Almonds are a a big drain (HAH) on California's water resources, yes, but it is dwarfed by the water used directly or indirectly (alfalfa for feed, etc) to raise cows. I don't get why China is targeting CA crops, though. Trump probably views anything which hurts California as a net win.
posted by Justinian at 1:08 PM on March 23, 2018 [9 favorites]


Not only was the propaganda against her effective in convincing certain people of her evil, it was effective in making those people affected by it into irrational rageballs that I so did not want to get into a debate with.

Invisibilia from a couple weeks ago ("The Other Real World") touches on outsiders influencing of social norms and the research they talk about indicates that you can't really change anyone's personal beliefs, but you can change how they feel about their society and what their society's norms are (which then also goes on to change behavior because people tend to behave the way they think is expected and accepted). I think this is what the propaganda was and continues to be aimed at. So, the social norm of what it means to be a liberal got altered such that it became more acceptable to be against Hillary and less acceptable to support her. Hence the secret Facebook groups. Hence robotdevil feeling like it wasn't really acceptable to vocally support her even as the people they were working with felt it was perfectly acceptable to denigrate her. The current Wild Rumpus of Racists isn't because non-racist people just suddenly turned racist due to agitprop, but because people who have always held racist beliefs were convinced that American social norms are accepting of overt racist behavior and are so empowered to just let it all hang out (and part of that was pulling the lever for Trump).
posted by soren_lorensen at 1:11 PM on March 23, 2018 [39 favorites]


There are 14 Republicans in California’s delegation to the House of Representatives, including majority leader Kevin McCarthy
posted by chrchr at 1:13 PM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


McCarthy has a huge agricultural base as well.
posted by elsietheeel at 1:15 PM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


So remember how the main Republican count-attack line about Moore was that his accusers were getting paid to come forward? Turns out they were trying to make the reverse true. WaPo, Shawn Boburg and Dalton Bennett, Attorney says Roy Moore supporters offered him $10,000 to drop client who accused the Senate candidate of sexual impropriety
Days after a woman accused U.S. Senate candidate Roy Moore of sexual impropriety, two Moore supporters approached her attorney with an unusual request.

They asked lawyer Eddie Sexton to drop the woman as a client and say publicly that he did not believe her. The damaging statement would be given to Breitbart News, then run by former White House strategist Stephen K. Bannon.

In exchange, Sexton said in recent interviews, the men offered to pay him $10,000 and promised to introduce him to Bannon and others in the nation’s capital. Parts of Sexton’s account are supported by recorded phone conversations, text messages and people in whom he confided at the time.
This is a really, really weird story.
posted by zachlipton at 1:16 PM on March 23, 2018 [74 favorites]


I don't get why China is targeting CA crops, though. Trump probably views anything which hurts California as a net win.

My guess would be they are targeting American export industries that 1) have developed a dependency on Chinese demand; 2) are significant constituents of total American exports.

Also, it's the LAT, so they will highlight goods exported from California in their reporting.

(Anecdotal: American food and agricultural goods are highly regarded by Chinese consumers for their quality and wholesomeness and already enjoy premium pricing as a result.)
posted by notyou at 1:19 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Soren_Lorenson: Exactly. (How did you know I just listened to that episode!?)

I highly recommend that people listen to it. In order to fight back against this crap we need to really understand exactly how it's affecting everyone. I like to think I understand a lot about psychology but this episode was fascinating and really gave me a lot of new perspective.
posted by robotdevil at 1:19 PM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Almost all of the almond farms are inland areas that voted Trump. 54% of Kern County for example. Though we can't be sure that China took this into consideration.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 1:19 PM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


showbiz_liz: Isn't Ann Coulter just a reactionary troll rather than a true believer? Like hasn't she literally admitted as much?

That may be true and I may be misreading her completely.


My read on Coulter is, and has always been, that she is a person with appalling personal beliefs who also thinks it's fun to get a rise out of people by saying things that intentionally exaggerate those beliefs while still basically agreeing with them in a foundational sense. She's an everyday sociopath who also delights in playacting as Cruella De Vil.
posted by Strange Interlude at 1:21 PM on March 23, 2018 [37 favorites]


Almost all of the almond farms are inland areas that voted Trump. 54% of Kern County for example.

True enough. Though anyone who has driven the 5 or the 99 through the central valley knows approximately how likely the folks there are to blame Trump and the Republicans for problems vs how likely they are to blame "Nancy Pooplosi".

Typical roadside sign.
posted by Justinian at 1:23 PM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


To be clear, this story isn't just about two Moore supporters making an offer; it's about multiple top Breitbart reporters who showed up at the meeting where Sexton was given a handwritten statement to sign, a statement in which he'd turn on his own client.
posted by zachlipton at 1:24 PM on March 23, 2018 [28 favorites]


From up-thread. I know Mark Leon Goldberg, and he's extremely trustworthy - that Daily Beast op-ed is (terrifyingly) spot-on.
posted by faineg at 1:29 PM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


(A further anecdote: During a recent trip to Hong Kong and Shenzhen, I saw a pile of discarded boxes beside a bin at the back of one of the hotels. They were waxed cartons from Snake River Farms.)

Also: Here's the list of 128 goods proposed for tariffs. Beef isn't included, but pork and ginseng are.
posted by notyou at 1:31 PM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


True enough. Though anyone who has driven the 5 or the 99 through the central valley knows approximately how likely the folks there are to blame Trump and the Republicans for problems vs how likely they are to blame "Nancy Pooplosi".

Or, if you go north, to complain about how unrepresented they are and how they want a new state and use a map to justify it, because there's so much more land north of Sacramento than there is in LA! (Seriously. The State of Jefferson)
posted by katster at 1:32 PM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


I don't get why China is targeting CA crops, though. Trump probably views anything which hurts California as a net win.

China benefits from a distracted and divided United States as much if not more than Russia.
posted by Candleman at 1:33 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


So the omnibus also snuck in the CLOUD Act without debate, which allows the executive branch to allow foreign governments to bypass the 4th Amendment and tap U.S. citizens without a warrant, and optionally funnel the information back to the U.S. government. Seems the kind of thing that anti-TPP folks, nationalists and self-styled anti-tyranny groups should be shitting bricks about, but I'm not seeing that kind of reaction, rather the usual "Donald is again playing chess with Deep State" kind of thing. Even Hacker News has a pretty mute reaction to this, when I'd expect to see a black bar at the top of the screen. Can't help but think more of the same is coming if there is no pushback.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 1:38 PM on March 23, 2018 [33 favorites]


So remember how the main Republican count-attack line about Moore was that his accusers were getting paid to come forward? Turns out they were trying to make the reverse true.
Trump's Mirror is the most reliable standard for judging any action, not just of Trump's, but any current Republican since the Tea Party takeover. But the Republican Mirror is only reflective; Trump's is magnifying.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:42 PM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


I live in an area filled with State of Jefferson signs and bumper stickers it's important to note that Jefferson also proposes to include a third of Oregon and has everything to do with racism and scared white men of the sort who hoard guns. It's not that they're necessarily underrepresented, it's that they don't want to be represented by THOSE PEOPLE in LA.
posted by elsietheeel at 1:48 PM on March 23, 2018 [25 favorites]


"Here's the list of 128 goods proposed for tariffs. Beef isn't included, but pork and ginseng are."

So, targeting Iowa and Wisconsin, too.
posted by JimInLoganSquare at 1:53 PM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


It would probably be very naive to imagine that China doesn't look at US domestic politics.
posted by mumimor at 1:58 PM on March 23, 2018 [24 favorites]


True enough. Though anyone who has driven the 5 or the 99 through the central valley knows approximately how likely the folks there are to blame Trump and the Republicans for problems vs how likely they are to blame "Nancy Pooplosi".

I agree with the general sentiment. But these folks, while often misguided, are not stupid. Trump unilaterally started a trade war, which was responded to in kind by China, in ways that directly impact many of these voters’ line of business. While I know the average Trump voter has a gift for contortions of logical inference, this particular situation seems like two-dimensional chess to me.
posted by Brak at 2:01 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]




I live in an area filled with State of Jefferson signs and bumper stickers it's important to note that Jefferson also proposes to include a third of Oregon and has everything to do with racism and scared white men of the sort who hoard guns. It's not that they're necessarily underrepresented, it's that they don't want to be represented by THOSE PEOPLE in LA.

I grew up there (a few miles east of Redding) and still have family there, and the resentment (and self consciousness) toward folks from Down South was palpable when I was a kid and seems to have gotten more intense in the years since. I've also noticed that the place seems more and more run down and generally shabbier with each successive Thanksgiving visit. Some of that is just my perception (you can't go home again), but I think generally rural parts of the state do lack investment and opportunity. As do urban parts of the state and places in between.

Say -- maybe instead of seccession, folks could work with other underserved communities to get better representation and services together!
posted by notyou at 2:24 PM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


I know that this is mainly the presidential thread and I know that this is the tiniest drop in the biggest bucket, but the VP has flown into Atlanta on a Friday at rush hour and shut down our already-super-congested main north-south corridor for hours. During rush hour. In Atlanta!!! Y’all - have you been in Atlanta during a normal Friday commute? Arghfhfhh

So many things that this administration does keeps my blood at a daily simmer but I’m just absolutely boiling.
posted by Fritzle at 2:27 PM on March 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


I grew up there (a few miles east of Redding) and still have family there, and the resentment (and self consciousness) toward folks from Down South was palpable when I was a kid and seems to have gotten more intense in the years since.

See also: Chicago and Downstate.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 2:27 PM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


The State of Jefferson was first proposed in 1941.
On November 27, 1941, a group of young men gained national media attention when, brandishing hunting rifles for dramatic effect, they stopped traffic on U.S. Route 99 south of Yreka, the county seat of Siskiyou County, and handed out copies of a Proclamation of Independence, stating that the State of Jefferson was in "patriotic rebellion against the States of California and Oregon" and would continue to "secede every Thursday until further notice."
Our gums, let us flap them. I don't think that the rural fantasies of Jefferson (or Weedonia, or...) are going to come true anytime soon. But elsietheeel and notyou are right, there's a lot of poverty, gun-hoarding, Don't Tread On Me type stuff, and angry disaffected white men in California's interior. The eastern parts of Cali (except for touristy places like Lake Tahoe, Yosemite, etc.) are a whole different beast from the coasts and Bay Area - much poorer and redder, though powerless against the wealthy indigo-blue areas.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 2:30 PM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


Regardless, five bucks says Donald will say something along the lines of "take that, California!"

Since there are multiple "BROWN AND PELOSI ARE CAUSING THIS WATER SHORTAGE!!!!!1111!!" type billboards up and down the 5 freeway in the heart of CA farmland, Trump is literally fucking over the only large Republican constituency left in California.

On preview: Hah, Justinian beat me to it
posted by sideshow at 2:59 PM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Quote on the radio just now: "The world is going to stop worrying about containing Iran, and start to worry about containing the US". BBC leading on the international horror at Bolton, which appears near-universal.
posted by Devonian at 3:07 PM on March 23, 2018 [39 favorites]


Mod note: Deleted CalExit/State of Jefferson derail. If it's interesting/relevant enough to discuss, it can have its own thread.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 3:11 PM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


I wonder if Trump knows that much of his California constituency either held their noses when they went to the polls or they stayed home. Romney and McCain both got 57% in Kern County, compared to his 54%. Every GOP voter I know in Kern County says they loathe him, but they will always vote the party line. I'm curious to know what they're thinking now, but I also avoid talking to them whenever possible.
posted by elsietheeel at 3:14 PM on March 23, 2018


Here's what Nancy Pelosi's email newsletter says about the omnibus bill, DACA, and a woman's right to choose:
California Democrats proudly fought for and secured progress in the omnibus that will create jobs, improve health and advance economic opportunity across our state.

In sharp contrast to the devastating cuts called for in the Trump budget, the omnibus contains robust funding to combat homelessness, create new affordable housing and promote community development. We secured the highest-ever level of funding for HOPWA, protected AIDS research and prevention including the Minority AIDS initiative and achieved record levels of investment for the life-saving research of NIH including groundbreaking initiatives like precision medicine.

[Plus: wildfire/fire prevention funding, Pell Grants, disaster preparedness, infrastructure ... local transit projects ... then she says:]

The omnibus also rejects the Trump Administration’s cruel anti-immigrant agenda. We ensured no increase in detention beds, no new ICE deportation agents and no defunding sanctuary cities. Instead of the $25 billion the President wanted for his immoral and ineffective border wall, he’s getting only $641 million for new pedestrian fencing and levees.

Unfortunately, Republicans refused to join us to provide real protections for our Dreamers. The GOP shamefully offered only a temporary patch for only a few DACA recipients, tied to billions for the border wall and extreme interior enforcement that many Dreamers made clear they could not support. Speaker Ryan has failed to live up to his promise to bring a DACA solution to the floor, and we will continue to press him to give us a vote to protect Dreamers.

[Then, a section on Supreme Court case, National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, about "whether fake abortion clinics run by anti-abortion extremists can continue to manipulate pregnant women by denying them access to important health care information" - I had never heard of this case until now:]

Democrats will never stop fighting to defend a woman’s fundamental freedom to make her own personal decisions involving her health and her family. The Supreme Court must once again affirm states’ right to safeguard the health of their citizens and ensure women have access to basic information about their rights and their health care.

[Also, congratulates Toni Atkins, the first woman and first LGBT person to lead both houses of the California legislature.]

If you have decent representatives, it's worth subscribing to these things to get the occasional glimpse into what they're doing and saying. My own reps don't send these out that often; to be honest, I wish Kamala Harris would send out more updates.
posted by kristi at 3:14 PM on March 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


RNC has already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in an AZ district Trump won by 21. Election is 4/24.

@greggiroux (Bloomberg)
Arizona 8th special election (4/24): RNC reported spending $281,250 to help Debbie Lesko (R) http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00003418/1215885/se
Hiral Tipirneni (D) released TV ad this week attacking "politician Debbie Lesko." #az08
posted by chris24 at 3:18 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


CNN, Michelle Kosinski, Trump's National Security Council recommends expelling Russian diplomats
President Donald Trump is expected to receive a recommendation from his National Security Council on Friday that he expel a yet-to-be-determined number of Russian diplomats from the US in response to the poisonings of a former spy and his daughter on UK soil, a source with knowledge of the situation told CNN.

The decision to send that recommendation to the President comes after a high-level meeting at the White House on Wednesday during which the NSC drew up a range of options to take action against Russia, according to multiple State Department officials and a source familiar with the discussion.
So if I have the timeline correct, McMaster was fired the day after the NSC recommended taking action against Russia?
posted by zachlipton at 3:19 PM on March 23, 2018 [64 favorites]


That recommendation is the one thing he will veto today.
posted by notyou at 3:24 PM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


RNC has already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in an AZ district Trump won by 21. Election is 4/24.

The interesting thing here is that while AZ-08 had a similar Trump margin to PA-18 or (also upcoming) OH-12, it was seen as much less likely to flip than those two. It was never "ancestrally Democratic", and there is no significant union presence. If the GOP is legit worried about AZ-08, they are in deep trouble.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:31 PM on March 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


They asked lawyer Eddie Sexton to drop the woman as a client and say publicly that he did not believe her. The damaging statement would be given to Breitbart News, then run by former White House strategist Stephen K. Bannon.

The fuck? So they were asking him to profoundly breach his professional ethics (which are codified, and have teeth for breach) for $10,000? That’s seriously underbidding for someone to risk possible disbarment. Also insulting as hell to the attorney.

They’re such weaselly little fucks.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:43 PM on March 23, 2018 [46 favorites]


Is your teen an activist? (Riane Konc, McSweeney's)
It’s every parent’s greatest fear: their teen goes off to school one day and then comes back an activist. But how can you know if your teen has been sucked into the world of activism? Look out for these warning signs.

Paraphernalia

Your teen won’t like you going through their stuff, but for their safety, you need to search their room for activist paraphernalia. It can be scary to find a backpack stuffed with petitions or a pile of protest signs shoved under the mattress, but try to stay calm. Remember: your response will set the tone for all future interactions with your teen.

New Friends

One classic sign of activism in teens is them spending time with new peer groups. Have you heard your teen mention the name “Wayne LaPierre”? If you have heard this name in your home, it’s time to pay attention. Remember, there is not a teen alive who would interact with someone named “Wayne” unless they were deep into activism.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 3:46 PM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


Trump stopped tweeting about the stock market right when it stopped making him look good All told, the president has tweeted about the performance of the stock market at least 68 times since taking office, with a majority of those tweets occurring between October and December. Since Feb. 8, however — 43 days ago, as of this writing — he has been silent on the topic on Twitter.

posted by T.D. Strange at 3:46 PM on March 23, 2018 [35 favorites]


I mean, just offhand there’s serious breach of at least three Rules of Professional Conduct, and I can guarantee you any disciplinary commission would be livid if this set of facts came in front of them. It’s gross corruption to the detriment of your own client; he would have gotten completely torched.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:55 PM on March 23, 2018


Now he's tweeting for a line-item veto. Donny's learned a new phrase.

@realDonaldTrump
As a matter of National Security I've signed the Omnibus Spending Bill. I say to Congress: I will NEVER sign another bill like this again. To prevent this omnibus situation from ever happening again, I'm calling on Congress to give me a line-item veto for all govt spending bills!
posted by chris24 at 4:06 PM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Commercial bribery is a misdemeanor in Alabama, worth up to a year in jail and a fine of $6,000.
(a) A person commits the crime of commercial bribery if he:

(1) Confers, or agrees or offers to confer, any benefit upon any employee or agent without the consent of the latter's employer or principal, with intent to improperly influence his conduct in relation to his employer's or principal's affairs
The felony "bribery" only refers to gov't employees, including jurists and in some areas, volunteers. However, offering a lawyer $$$ to drop and denounce a client sounds like commercial bribery. I wonder if Sexton's got email or recordings of phone calls of their offer.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:06 PM on March 23, 2018 [11 favorites]


Sam Nunberg Is Still Talking. There's a lot here, but here's some flavor:
Nunberg tells me his favorite book is Trust Me, I Am Lying by former American Apparel media stuntman Ryan Holiday. “There is something about manipulating media that I love. It’s like Katy Tur said: ‘Who is Sam Nunberg? You gotta talk to him. Occasionally, he will give you something that is true, but usually you need to confirm it with three other people.’”

Still, he has limits.

“I have never, nor would I ever, lie to [Washington Post reporter Robert] Costa or to my Magela.”

I’m sorry—your who?

“My Magela. I call Maggie Haberman [of The New York Times] my Magela. You know, like Mamela. Maggie is like my aunt.”

He shrugged.

“I don’t know if she feels that way, actually.”'
...
When the Drudge Report published the news that Trump had named Brad Parscale his 2020 campaign manager, it was the same day that it was announced that Jared Kushner was losing his security clearance and that top Kushner aide Josh Raffel was leaving the White House. Nunberg, who considers Kushner a leftist who leaked to Drudge, sent an email to Drudge with the subject line, “Sorry Asshole.”

“Your little escapade failed,” Nunberg wrote. “The Parscale announcement doesn’t outdo Raffel leaving and your crush losing his security access. Fuck you sellout bitch hypocrite. You useless aggregator. Go shoot yourself up with more drugs. Warm regards, Sam.”

And Nunberg continues to be at war with Lewandowski. He told me with evident pride that he orchestrated the story of Lewandowski and Hope Hicks’ argument that landed on Page Six in New York Post. “We are like high school mean girls. The whole Trump circle. We fight and we try to kill each other and then some of us make up in a week and some of us don’t and some of us will always hate each other.”
posted by zachlipton at 4:06 PM on March 23, 2018 [19 favorites]


These people are all extremely, malignantly fucked up. Those of us who are not have an understandably hard time accepting that there are really people out there like John Bolton or Sam Nunberg (though he's probably the most relatable of the crew just due to his complete inability to pretend he's not an epic hot mess) or Jared or DJT.

We need to think of these people as would-be mass murderers but for being more organized, more privileged, more patient and with less suicidal ideation. All the hand-wringing folks are doing about mad bombers and school shooters needs to be directed in equal measure at these fucking people.
posted by soren_lorensen at 4:16 PM on March 23, 2018 [28 favorites]


I say to Congress: I will NEVER sign another bill like this again.

Here's hoping this is Trump's "Read my lips: no new taxes."

He's already begun to lose Rush Limbaugh. On his show today, Limbaugh confessed, "I don’t like this. I don’t like the way I’m feeling right now. And I try to be a guy governed by my thoughts, but I’m not liking the way I’m feeling. I’m feeling like I just saw Donald Trump get on the escalator and go back up. [...] In addition to feeling like I just saw Donald Trump go back up the escalator, I’m not feeling like anything that happened today was game changing. This seemed typical. This seemed much the same as we have become accustomed to in watching Washington function. And it doesn’t feel right."

He then proceeded to whine and bloviate about how the omnibus spending bill somehow gives the Democrats what they want out of immigration, doesn't fund the Wall sufficiently, and generally stripped out Donald Trump’s agenda. He concluded, "And Trump says he’s irritated but he’s never gonna go for anything like this again. And he warned ’em. He warned those Democrats, I’m not gonna ever do anything like this again. Well, I don’t know."
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:22 PM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


Now he's tweeting for a line-item veto. Donny's learned a new phrase.

Y'know, there's a completely coherent argument to be made on the lines of "I will not sign a new budget/omnibus into law if I have not had time to read it, even under pressure of a shutdown." That's a completely non-partisan stance people could sympathize with even despite their understandable hatred of Trump.

It's sitting right there. Right on the sidewalk. Ready to be picked up. He could have all the media heads shrugging and nodding and saying, "Gosh, he's got a point." But instead, he shoots for some crazy pipe dream nonsense that has already been found unconstitutional.

He's so bad at this.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:22 PM on March 23, 2018 [58 favorites]


(Yes, I know Trump doesn't read. That's not the point. It's impossible to believe he's even had his own people read it for him, is what I'm saying.)
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:24 PM on March 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


It is funny how Donald "The Government could use a good shutdown" Trump let himself get bullied into signing a bill he doesn't like at all just to keep the government from shutting down.

One of the core jobs of the President is to manage Congress by vetoing shitty lazy last-minute bills like this. A good President would toss that bill right back at Congress and demand Congress do their job by making something everyone can agree on. A good President would be demanding the people representing America work together on things Americans resoundingly support like dreamer protection and gun reform. A good President would be bringing people together, not delighting in ripping us further apart.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 4:32 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


There is this alternate universe where if a POTUS came in who strong-armed Congress into immigration reform, improved relations with NK, passed a huge infrastructure bill, and warned Congress that they would veto any bill that involved this last-minute bullshit this POTUS would be tremendously popular and considered a success. I feel like all of these things (well, maybe not NK) are just sitting there waiting for Trump to pick them up, but he is such a venal, corrupt, narcissistic, ignorant coward that he is simply not capable of taking advantage of the opportunities in front of him. All the man wants is approval, and he could have it if he just wasn't himself.
posted by Anonymous at 4:33 PM on March 23, 2018


Here’s John Bolton Promising Regime Change in Iran by the End of 2018

We don't negotiate with terrorists. Except when it comes to Iran. Then we always negotiate with terrorists.
...Bolton told members of the Iranian exile group, known as the Mujahedeen Khalq, MEK, or People’s Mujahedeen, that the Trump administration should embrace their goal of immediate regime change in Iran and recognize their group as a “viable” alternative.
...
To understand how extraordinary it is that the man about to become the president’s most senior national security official made this promise to the MEK, it is important to know that, until recently, the Iranian dissidents had spent three decades trying to achieve their aims through violence, including terrorist attacks.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:01 PM on March 23, 2018 [12 favorites]


One of the core jobs of the President is to manage Congress by vetoing shitty lazy last-minute bills like this. A good President would toss that bill right back at Congress and demand Congress do their job by making something everyone can agree on.

I mean, that's what this is? This is the only full year funding bill they can get done. It's not terrible. It's not great obviously. It's not what President Sanders or Clinton or Obama would pass with full control of Congress. But it's no where close to the apocalyptic Trump budget. It's more or less maintaining the status quo, you know, the one where we have a functioning civil service. NO ONE in Congress actually wants to pass the Trump budget except the Freedom Caucus and far right Senators like Cruz, because doing so would literally end the federal government as we've known it in modern times. And there's NO WHERE NEAR enough of them to pass that. Democrats DID get some things in here, scroll up. Republicans of course got some bad shit in there too, but that's how the process works.

This IS what they can all agree on. There was never any plan B, because there was no way the Trump budget could ever pass. It couldn't have even got 50 votes, just like we saw with his Obamacare "replacement". When it comes down to it, Republicans are NOT willing to pass the spending cuts they pretend they want, because they would get annihilated the next election AND lose their rationale for arguing to end Social Security and Medicare.

On top of that, the process "concerns" are bullshit theater like Joe Manchin shooting the Obamacare bill with a shotgun. How many times have we seen this picture? Ohhhh, the bill is so big, ohhhh, no one has read it! Bullshit. They've been negotiating versions of this same spending bill since the first CR in September. They passed the top line spending levels a month ago. All their staffs have read it. They've all read versions of this time and time again, and when it comes down to it, Republicans are the ones that dragged this out for 6 months until the very last day before shutdown, time, after time, after time.

Spare us the both sides do it and they should do their jobs, this is Congress doing it's job, literally for the only time this year.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:39 PM on March 23, 2018 [24 favorites]


Finally. Search warrant issued for CamAn.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:43 PM on March 23, 2018 [39 favorites]


@gelliottmorris:
Millennial women have seen the largest shift in party identification (to 37 points pro-Democratic!!) that Pew Research Center has ever recorded between genders and generations
posted by Chrysostom at 5:52 PM on March 23, 2018 [54 favorites]


NYT sums up the week thusly - "After Another Week of Chaos, Trump Repairs to Palm Beach. No One Knows What Comes Next."

Aides said there was no grand strategy to the president’s actions, and that he got up each morning this week not knowing what he would do. Much as he did as a New York businessman at Trump Tower, Mr. Trump watched television, reacted to what he saw on television and then reacted to the reaction.

I don't think there's any doubt as to the nature of this grossly dysfunctional presidency.
posted by Devonian at 6:01 PM on March 23, 2018 [22 favorites]


All the man wants is approval, and he could have it if he just wasn't himself.

As a malignant narcissist, Trump's compelled to undermine himself and everyone around him, like, say, Capitol Hill allies and White House aides who are leaking to the press that their dysfunctional boss is going off the rails.

WSJ: Trump Relishes Off-Script Approach
White House aides huddled with Mr. Trump and warned him that he might catch blame for shutting down the government on a weekend he planned to spend at his Palm Beach, Fla., resort.

“F— that,” Mr. Trump said in rejecting the argument, according to people familiar with the discussion.[...]

Friends and former aides said he is relishing the focus and attention he is receiving with personnel and policy moves that at times have convulsed the capital. And they point to measures like the China trade tariffs and the agreement to talk to North Korea as innovations in U.S. policy that only a disrupter of the status quo could deliver on.[...]

Yet the approach carries risks, jeopardizing the White House’s credibility when a presidential tweet or unscripted comment collides with prepared statements crafted by his advisers, such as the long list of favorable talking points on the spending bill that his staff issued Thursday.

“Never been this wild,” said one White House official, summing up the last two weeks in the West Wing.

A top Republican House aide said Friday: “You have to take every statement of administration policy with a grain of salt because we all know it comes down to one man.”
Politico: Trump Aides Are ‘At Their Wits’ End’—The president’s unpredictable behavior has West Wing staffers worried about their own credibility.
The president’s surprise Friday morning tweet threatening to veto a $1.3 trillion government funding bill — and subsequent reversal in a matter of hours — capped another week in which Trump’s impulsive decisions undermined his exasperated staff.

Tensions were running high in the White House on Friday, especially on the communications team, as staff scrambled to figure out whether the president really intended to veto the bill or was just blustering. There is growing concern in the West Wing that the president’s unpredictable behavior is undercutting staffers’ credibility, according to two people who have spoken to White House officials in recent days.

"The press and comms team, more than others, are at their wits’ end,” a former White House official told POLITICO. “I don't blame them for being frustrated, because they're on the front lines of this and are directly responsible for dealing with the blowback of the president's un-planned tweets.”
Trump's now off for a weekend at his club, where his cronies will court him with shameless flattery and all the worst advice he wants to hear.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:12 PM on March 23, 2018 [15 favorites]


Metafilter: would-be mass murderers but for being more organized, more privileged, more patient and with less suicidal ideation.

NPR had a story on All Things Considered this afternoon about racial differences in media coverage of mass killers by race, focusing on the Austin sheriff's description of the bomber as struggling. It was not completely terrible.
posted by medusa at 6:15 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Oh hey, what a shocker: turns out Mattis is screwing over transgender troops after all. Just with not quite as broad a brush as Trump.

@Travis_Tritten:
Mattis' 'confidential' recommendations to Trump on new transgender military policy was just published in federal court documents.
Mattis recommations:
1.Transgender persons without gender dysphoria diagnosis can serve
2.Transgender persons who have undergone gender transition are disqualified
3.Transgender persons w/ history of gender dysphoria are disqualified, with some exceptions
Trump has signed a memo authorizing Mattis to implement those recommendations at the military's new transgender policy.

The Hill: Trump bans most transgender people from serving in the military
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:32 PM on March 23, 2018 [29 favorites]


I just went down a rabbit hole reading about the Doomsday Clock, which is currently at two minutes to midnight. Fun fact: this is the closest to midnight it has ever been since 1953, which is when the US and the Soviets began testing hydrogen bombs. Started in 1947, this is the 71st year of the clock's existence.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:33 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


Mod note: Less chatter and one-liners please!
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 6:43 PM on March 23, 2018 [1 favorite]


So we have a 1.3 trillion dollar spending bill and a 1 trillion dollar projected deficit. Did we really only raise 300 billion in taxes? (I swear that I used to understand this)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:51 PM on March 23, 2018 [4 favorites]


NPR had a story on All Things Considered this afternoon about racial differences in media coverage of mass killers by race, focusing on the Austin sheriff's description of the bomber as struggling. It was not completely terrible.

In 2018 NPR gets praise for acknowledging the existence of racism. I'll start calling NPR not-completely-terrible when they acknowledge and try to make amends for their behavior over the past year-plus.

Cornish (the interviewer in the story) in particular will in my mind never be rehabilitated after acting as Gorka's controlled-opposition enabler.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:52 PM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


Bolton Expected to ‘Clean House’
Another source said, “He is going to remove almost all the political [appointees] McMaster brought in.”

A second former White House official offered a blunt assessment of former Obama officials currently detailed or appointed to the NSC: “Everyone who was there during Obama years should start packing their shit.”
...
It wouldn’t be the first purge to follow a change in Trump’s national security advisor. When Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster replaced retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn in the job last year, McMaster systematically eliminated officials seen as loyal to his predecessor. According to four sources close to the White House, those so-called “Flynnstones” — advisors loyal to Flynn — are believed to be plotting their return to the NSC.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:57 PM on March 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


No mention of the bump stocks ban proposal yet in the thread? I hear The_Donald on Reddit is on fire over this late Friday evening news:

Justice Dept. Proposes Banning Bump Stocks, Setting Aside Its Own Recommendations
Attorney General Jeff Sessions said on Friday that the Justice Department was proposing to ban so-called bump stocks through regulations rather than wait for Congress to act, a move that defies recommendations by federal law enforcement officials and could subject the department to litigation from gun rights groups. Mr. Sessions’s announcement came moments after President Trump said on Twitter that the Justice Department would imminently announce a rule banning bump stocks.
(Yes, of course the tweet blamed Obama for being in favor of bump stocks.)

Oh, and don't expect any meaningful change:
By reinterpreting the conclusion that was made under President Barack Obama, the Justice Department could open itself up to lawsuits when the rule is finalized. Litigation would tie up the bump stock ban in the courts.
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:07 PM on March 23, 2018


Bump stocks are a red-herring, since you can simulate a machine gun with a "semi-automatic" rifle simply by hooking the thumb of your trigger hand through your belt. The rifles themselves which permit this are defectively designed and in a better universe, the Consumer Product Safety Commission would have required them to be classified as machine guns, and regulated under the NFA.
posted by mikelieman at 7:11 PM on March 23, 2018 [13 favorites]


According to four sources close to the White House, those so-called “Flynnstones” — advisors loyal to Flynn — are believed to be plotting their return to the NSC.

Um, those are Russian spies.
posted by Artw at 7:13 PM on March 23, 2018 [36 favorites]


RobotVoodooPower: "Almost all of the almond farms are inland areas that voted Trump. 54% of Kern County for example. Though we can't be sure that China took this into consideration."

mumimor: "It would probably be very naive to imagine that China doesn't look at US domestic politics."

At a minimum I don't think anyone thinks the US has better people on this trade war than China does.
posted by Mitheral at 7:37 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


"So true. It’s absurd. Which is why people are banging down the doors to be his comms director."

okay i am deep in the valley of Poe’s Law cuz i can’t tell if he’s being sarcastic or earnestly subtweeting his wife’s boss
posted by murphy slaw at 7:45 PM on March 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


So true. It’s absurd. Which is why people are banging down the doors to be his comms director.

[Kellyanne] Conway now says she'd be open to WH communications director job
posted by kirkaracha at 7:57 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


anyone want a new thread?
posted by Merus at 8:00 PM on March 23, 2018 [6 favorites]


NEW THREAD
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:01 PM on March 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Friends and former aides said he is relishing the focus and attention he is receiving with personnel and policy moves that at times have convulsed the capital. And they point to measures like the China trade tariffs and the agreement to talk to North Korea as innovations in U.S. policy that only a disrupter of the status quo could deliver on.[...]

Yet the approach carries risks, jeopardizing the White House’s credibility when a presidential tweet or unscripted comment collides with prepared statements crafted by his advisers, such as the long list of favorable talking points on the spending bill that his staff issued Thursday.


Wait, we're still pretending there's any credibility or stability in the White House? Huh, I thought that was gone once we started measuring time in Scarramuchis.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:48 PM on March 23, 2018 [5 favorites]


So we have a 1.3 trillion dollar spending bill and a 1 trillion dollar projected deficit. Did we really only raise 300 billion in taxes? (I swear that I used to understand this)

IINM the $1.3T is for one fiscal year, the $1T is projected to accumulate over the next ten.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:34 AM on April 7, 2018


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