Comments on: Comments on 17339

Post number 17339

SpecialK — Thu, 23 May 2002 09:43:42 -0800

CA Earthquake forecast... Apparently, the earthquake that Matt felt recently had been forecast by a group of scientists with a new predictive modelling method. That particular earthquake was just on the edge of their confidence interval, but four other recent earthquakes fell well within the predicted boundaries.

By: jjg

jjg — Thu, 23 May 2002 10:01:11 -0800

1. "Earthquake predication"? 2. What is up with the caption on that graphic? 3. Why isn't this study on the Web? Boo.

By: vacapinta

vacapinta — Thu, 23 May 2002 10:03:47 -0800

Ok. who's going to call Annette?

By: briank

briank — Thu, 23 May 2002 10:15:28 -0800

Or, as Dick Cheney might say, another earthquake in California is "inevitable".

By: jeremias

jeremias — Thu, 23 May 2002 11:10:02 -0800

Did anyone else besides Matt feel it?

By: SpecialK

SpecialK — Thu, 23 May 2002 11:31:32 -0800

Har har har. Anyway. *drags thread somewhere back near topic* Wonder what this might do to land values in CA, or earthquake insurance, if your house is right near a place where an earthquake is predicted to happen? I forwarded this to my dad, who's just bought a house in CA and will be interested in any data like this. I expect that he'll call and find out more about the LA basin.

By: dhartung

dhartung — Thu, 23 May 2002 13:18:45 -0800

Clearly, these scientists are just trying to spread fear to keep the populace in line. jjg: Oh, but it is: Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting. You can read a couple of their other papers online, too. Apparently they're more in the realm of stochastic prediction than geology.

By: euphorb

euphorb — Thu, 23 May 2002 13:45:43 -0800

This figure from the paper dhartung linked shades in areas where they predict earthquakes to occur in the next 10 years in California. They are basically the same places that have had major quakes over the past 10 years, and thankfully not in heavily populated areas.

By: SpecialK

SpecialK — Thu, 23 May 2002 21:12:18 -0800

Hmn... thanks for linking the actual article! I wish I'd been able to find it ahead of time, I wouldn't have posted this. It's just statistical inference, not 'hard science'. Meterology for geology? The scary thing was that I recognized some of the equations they used as advanced forms of stuff I used in Stats class. Gaaa, frightening.