Article 40.3.3
May 23, 2018 4:38 PM   Subscribe

On Friday May 25th Ireland will hold a referendum to decide whether or not to repeal the 8th amendment to the Irish constitution, which was added to the constitution by referendum in 1983. The 8th amendment inserted a subsection to the Irish constitution equating the right to life of the unborn with the right to life of the mother, effectively banning abortion in Ireland in all cases bar the most severe risk to the life of the mother.

The current referendum has come about following years of campaigning galvanised by many tragic cases, notably the death of Savita Halappanavar in Galway in 2012. Following the report and recommendations of the Citizens' Assembly and its consideration by the Oireachtas, the Government is holding a referendum to allow for provision of abortion in Irish law and has drafted the relevant legislation.

In the run up to the referendum a large grass roots movement for yes has taken root and hundreds of Irish women have shared their, often harrowing, stories of abortion in the time of the eighth. Farmers, grandparents, midwives and a broad spectrum of politicians, including the Taoiseach have come together for yes. Following Tuesday night's Prime Time debate, Minister for Health Simon Harris has emerged as the 'feminist hero we never saw coming'.

Thousands of Irish people are travelling from all over the world to come home to vote. Meanwhile, young Americans are trying to stop Ireland from voting yes.Concerns about foreign influence swaying the vote led to Facebook banning all foreign ads related to the referendum and Google banning all ads related to the referendum across all of its platforms.

While there is a feeling the yeses have it, the polls are narrowing and the result hangs in the balance.

Three years ago Ireland became the first country in the world to legalise same sex marriage through a popular vote, one year ago Ireland elected the gay son of an indian immigrant to lead the government, some time on Saturday May 26 we will find out the view of the Irish electorate on abortion in 21st century Ireland.

Abortion in Ireland, previously on Mefi.
posted by roolya_boolya (139 comments total) 62 users marked this as a favorite
 
Beautifully constructed post and a very informative synopsis as well. Crossing my fingers for Ireland!
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 4:45 PM on May 23, 2018 [10 favorites]


I'm really nervous about this one, but I'm hoping for the best.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:02 PM on May 23, 2018 [8 favorites]


Comedy Central’s Jim Jeffries aired a piece about this recently.
posted by jabo at 5:22 PM on May 23, 2018 [3 favorites]


An Irish friend explained that you can’t vote absentee in Ireland, and you can’t come back to vote if you’ve lived abroad for more than 18 months. So all the young people who emigrated for jobs...nope.

OTOH she did say that everyone she knew who’d been abroad less than 18 months was coming back for the vote, some from as far away was Australia. Even the dudes! So. There’s that.
posted by schadenfrau at 5:25 PM on May 23, 2018 [18 favorites]


Great, comprehensive set of links. Fingers crossed for the vote.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 6:03 PM on May 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


The ban on ads by the big media platforms seems like a weird slippery slope to this American. The Yes side has done a good job of getting its story out through earned media for years as demonstrated in the post; now that the No side has ramped up advertising--likely part of its strategy to wait until the end--it seems a little strange and one-sided for the huge media platforms to say, okay, no more ads for anyone. That only hurts the Nos.
posted by resurrexit at 7:05 PM on May 23, 2018


The ban on ads by the big media platforms seems like a weird slippery slope to this American.
I mean, Americans don't get a vote, which is kind of the whole point with banning foreign ads. You and I can have opinions, but this is for Irish people to decide, and rich American anti-abortion advocates don't actually have a right to influence the outcome. I understand that must be disappointing for them.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:26 PM on May 23, 2018 [42 favorites]


I mean, Americans don't get a vote, which is kind of the whole point with banning foreign ads.

Note that Google banned all ads, foreign or not.
posted by Etrigan at 7:29 PM on May 23, 2018 [2 favorites]


Note that Google banned all ads, foreign or not.
It's hard to tell which is which, though. That's a huge problem for social media companies in general, in light of allegations of Russian meddling in US and European elections, and there's a lot of additional sensitivity in Ireland about outside influence in elections, for all sorts of historical reasons. (The biggest one being that Irish people really resented Irish-American financial support of the IRA.) As the article notes, Amnesty International was required to return a big donation from George Soros, because the Irish government thought it was intended to be used to promote the yes side. How would Google know that non-Irish money wasn't being used to fund last-minute ads? The last thing they want is an EU inquiry into whether they broke Irish laws and threw an election.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:10 PM on May 23, 2018 [7 favorites]


Yeah, I can't see a reliable way of ensuring that no Google ads on the topic are made possible through strictly foreign resources rather than domestic.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 10:26 PM on May 23, 2018


That only hurts the Nos. The forced-birth people have been getting women killed for years so I can live with that. An Irish friend who lives here in Sweden has been busy fundraising to help citizens who qualify fly back for the vote.
posted by Bella Donna at 12:31 AM on May 24, 2018 [12 favorites]


I am currently back in Ireland for the summer (alas, I do not qualify for residency any longer to vote) and whenever I browse any site from the Washington Post to The Root, all I have gotten is wall to wall ads for the no side, so I don’t think they're suffering much from whatever restrictions got laid on on line ads.

Much of my time here is spent in the National Library beside our parliament building, and I got to chat with the ‘Grandfathers for Yes’ who told me they’d been shoved aside by some young Americans who were standing there with huge, graphic pictures of what they insisted were abortions. I didn’t see the shoving, but I got to see the space the anti-abortion people (all 4 of them) were taking up and it was massive. That sort of behaviour is getting repeated all over, as is the flowing in of money and canvassers from outside for the no side. Including the fact that apps for no canvassers are sharing data with the NRA of all things.

None of this is to say that we don’t have our own Irish zealots aplenty banging the drum, of course. There’s piles of them around. But this referendum is attracting outside money and people like i’ve personally never experienced before in Ireland.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 12:48 AM on May 24, 2018 [14 favorites]


An Irish friend explained that you can’t vote absentee in Ireland, and you can’t come back to vote if you’ve lived abroad for more than 18 months. So all the young people who emigrated for jobs...nope.

OTOH she did say that everyone she knew who’d been abroad less than 18 months was coming back for the vote, some from as far away was Australia. Even the dudes! So. There’s that.


Emigration has always been state's 'release valve' for anyone with vaguely radical opinions. If you're a hidebound conservative government (pick a 20th century Irish government, any government), it can only serve you well when generations of young people move away, whether for economic reasons or because they were socially/culturally frozen out. Why would you want those people having a say in running the country? They might disagree with you.

The registry isn't really on top of it, mind. I was out of the country for 6 years before I got a letter saying 'we notice you no longer appear to be resident...' and polling cards were sent to my old address for a while after that. There may be some folks who will return for vote yes ethically, if not legally.

This release valve of course pales in comparison to the moral release valve Ireland's always had when it comes to abortion: the boat/plane to the UK. Irish women account for 67.9% of non-resident abortions in England and Wales. That was over 3000 women in 2016, 3000 women forced to take time off work and make a trip in difficult circumstances, only supported by a few hard-working charities. Ireland is able to maintain a smiling veneer of saintliness by exporting the 'problem' and punishing women.

Apart from the spectacle of Americans interfering in the democratic processes of another country (!) the polls are look sort of good?
posted by ocular shenanigans at 2:07 AM on May 24, 2018 [16 favorites]


If the yes side wins, is this likely to get the laws changed in Northern Ireland too?
posted by jeather at 4:15 AM on May 24, 2018


Does anyone know the mechanism for having another referendum on the same subject so soon (16 years) after a previous one?
posted by Kwadeng at 4:21 AM on May 24, 2018


A good Twitter thread about canvassing for Yes. It helps to have the difficult conversations. Good luck Ireland!
posted by harriet vane at 4:25 AM on May 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


If the yes side wins, is this likely to get the laws changed in Northern Ireland too?

Mary Lou McDonald has said the south will be open for women from the north to have abortions. She also says that she would like to see it introduced in the north, but similarly to marriage equality, a minority of hardline unionists can block it (because of the veto power allowed under the Good Friday Agreement).
posted by roolya_boolya at 4:48 AM on May 24, 2018 [1 favorite]


Does anyone know the mechanism for having another referendum on the same subject so soon (16 years) after a previous one?

Since this is the fifth abortion related referendum in Ireland since 1983, when the 8th Amendment was added to the constitution, arguably 16 years means we are well overdue for this one (although 3 of the previous 4 were held in 1992). There's a good history on the Wikipedia page on abortion in Ireland going from around here.

Basically there has been a pretty consistent activist movement keeping the issue live, the ruling from the ECHR, subsequent Expert Group and PLDPA and there's the report and recommendations of the Citizens' Assembly.
posted by roolya_boolya at 5:17 AM on May 24, 2018


Also note that we had two Constitutional referenda on the Lisbon Treaty, within 18 months of each other, so 16 years is nothing. (There is talk that if the 8th isn't repealed, it will be years before it's revisited, which upsets me in light of that Lisbon Treaty shambles.)
posted by macdara at 5:21 AM on May 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


How Facebook is influencing the Irish abortion referendum
Hundreds of Facebook adverts have been analysed to see how both sides are using this online battlefield


The two campaigns have also used Facebook for different purposes. Events made up almost a quarter of the adverts on the yes side, compared with less than 5% of those on the no side.

I think this demonstrates how much more grassroots the yes campaign has been as events will have been related to local fundraising and canvassing.
posted by roolya_boolya at 5:29 AM on May 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


What the women of Ireland are up against. Please do the right thing on Friday.
posted by longdaysjourney at 5:32 AM on May 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


I hope that Yes wins (and by enough of a margin to stop conservatives from watering down the legislation to the point of ineffectuality). Though, after Brexit and Trump, I'm prepared for the flood of shocked/incredulous op-eds after No wins by 2-5 percentage points. (Were I a compulsive gambler, I'd probably put a small amount of money on No eking out a narrow win.)
posted by acb at 5:40 AM on May 24, 2018


I think this demonstrates how much more grassroots the yes campaign has been as events will have been related to local fundraising and canvassing.

I took the No side's howls of outrage at facebook and google's restrictions as a sign that they had meant the larger part of their campaign to be an online operation. That it was followed up by a DDOS attack on the Together For Yes website is perhaps a coincidence but could also be taken as a sign that a generally nasty online blitz was the plan, in the fashion of shit like the Brexit referendum.

The No side has talked it up as bias and discrimination but it's coming off as another case of right-wingers accusing others of what they know they were trying to carry out. Case in point: the accusations of the Yes campaign being a product of international conspiracies when the Iona Institute received hundreds of thousands of euros from US fundamentalist groups as well as this 'grassroots movement' of Americans being shipped over to campaign.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 6:04 AM on May 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


I know outside interference in elections is not a new thing, but it seems to be getting easier and easier, and existing laws and rules against it are not being very effective. I hope the "yes" side prevails, but I wish they weren't having to deal with all the outside support for the other side. (That outside support would also make a "no" victory less legitimate in many eyes, not that it would change anything legislatively.)
posted by Dip Flash at 6:12 AM on May 24, 2018


Reading the #hometovote and the #inhershoes hashtags has been such a moving experience, and I've got everything crossed.
posted by threetwentytwo at 6:20 AM on May 24, 2018 [6 favorites]


Case in point: the accusations of the Yes campaign being a product of international conspiracies when the Iona Institute received hundreds of thousands of euros from US fundamentalist groups as well as this 'grassroots movement' of Americans being shipped over to campaign.

That's a combination of psychological projection (how can they possibly be doing it without outside help like we are?) and bargain basement antisemitism (the usual 'Soros' conspiracy bull).
posted by macdara at 6:25 AM on May 24, 2018 [4 favorites]


That's a combination of psychological projection (how can they possibly be doing it without outside help like we are?) and bargain basement antisemitism (the usual 'Soros' conspiracy bull).

Given that we now have alt-right flags flying at pro-life stands on O'Connell St, yeah, that sounds about par for the course.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 7:03 AM on May 24, 2018 [8 favorites]


If the yes side wins, is this likely to get the laws changed in Northern Ireland too?

I think less likely given how much the DUP hates the Republic and all it does.

Given that we now have alt-right flags flying at pro-life stands on O'Connell St, yeah, that sounds about par for the course.

Jesus. I've been wondering who are behind some particular posters with no attributions, and I wonder if it's these folk.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 7:19 AM on May 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


I was watching the 1983 Reeling in The Years [25.07] (a curated compilation of archival news clips with contemporary pop soundtrack) on youtube earlier -- it really was a different country. Here's a shorter clip [2.13] focused on the referendum story. Here's William Binchy and Mary Robinson -- both still kicking today -- discussing the results at the time [11.51].

Every indicator -- polls, past referendums, 'mood music' -- seems to be pointing to a Yes win, if a narrow one. The 2007 Portuguese referendum on the same topic has been brought up a few times (similar demographics, similar question, similar polling), and that also gives reason for optimism on the Yes side. But it's still so hard to believe it could actually finally happen, after all these years. Well done to all canvassers and campaigners for Repeal anyway -- hope to God it pays off.
posted by rollick at 7:41 AM on May 24, 2018 [2 favorites]


What the women of Ireland are up against. Please do the right thing on Friday.

Just in case there are any other Irish NUI grads around who haven't yet done so, you can register for the register for the Seanad elections by filling out the form here. You can vote for the Seanad even if you live outside Ireland, unlike for other elections. Rónán Mullen was elected with only just over 7000 first preference votes (9000ish with transfers).
posted by scorbet at 10:48 AM on May 24, 2018 [3 favorites]


For podcast fans, Headstuff just produced a limited series on this subject, The Eighth, in which an Irish woman goes through the history of birth control and abortion laws in their country, including the many implications this has beyond the right to choose. She's pro-repeal but works hard to represent both sides in the show. As an American who didn't even know this law existed until recently, I found it very informative and emotional at times. I'm hoping she'll produce at least one more episode regardless of the outcome.
posted by possibilityleft at 12:16 PM on May 24, 2018


If the yes side wins, is this likely to get the laws changed in Northern Ireland too?

As an update to my reply above: the Orange Order came out and is urging people in the South to vote no, so I'm guessing that's doubly no for the foreseeable future.

(Someone was out last night in our part of Dublin sticking up a rake of new no posters on the few bits of lamposts that didn't already have posters on them. They've given up on the babies though - these are just 'No! It's too extreme.')
posted by lesbiassparrow at 12:33 PM on May 24, 2018


My SO, who became an Irish citizen earlier this spring, has gone off on her bike to vote. (I'll be heading down to my rural polling station later this morning.) I'm not as optimistic as I was three years ago, but I think we can do this.

My personal favourite No poster is the one that says, "If you saw an abortion, you'd vote no." If I saw my own conception I'd be very much against that; this is not a good criterion, lads.
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 11:21 PM on May 24, 2018 [10 favorites]


If Yes wins, is there likely to be a U.S.-style backlash where disgruntled Nos make it so difficult for women to access services in some areas that it might as well still be illegal? Or does the geography and districting of Ireland make it harder for that sort of thing to happen?
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:36 PM on May 24, 2018


Ireland is tiny so even if there is only one hospital in the country providing abortion services it will still be fairly accessible to all.
posted by roolya_boolya at 1:15 AM on May 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


As mentioned above, do not miss the #hometovote hashtag. I am crying like whoa.

The videos from Dublin airport last night on that hashtag made me cry, too. “Thank you for making this journey so other women won’t have to.”

So many of us standing with you from this side of the Irish Sea.
posted by Catseye at 1:15 AM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


As an update to my reply above: the Orange Order came out and is urging people in the South to vote no

I don't think that's going to have the effect they want it to.
posted by roolya_boolya at 1:55 AM on May 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


Just went down with my sister to our polling station and it is very busy; hoping that’s a good sign for yes because we’re in a Dublin area that is likely to go heavily yes, based on previous voting.

(Sister can vote - I don’t qualify as non-resident.)

Agree on the ‘if you saw an abortion, you’d vote no’ posters. They along with the 1916 themed no ones are among the more baffling ones for me.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 2:08 AM on May 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


The UK 2016 stats for abortion suggest that roughly half had already given birth once, that 22% had had at least one prior miscarriage, and 38% had at least one previous abortion.

The idea that pregnant people aren't acutely aware of the realities of their bodies pisses me off something rotten.

By contrast the Repeal campaign have been totally inspirational. A model of how to do it.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:41 AM on May 25, 2018 [3 favorites]




One tiny anecdote from my polling station at ten past seven this morning: as I was going in I passed a slightly teary middle-aged woman coming out. That's going to be happening at polling stations all around the country. My vote was for all the untold thousands of women who've been stigmatised, silenced, shamed and forced out of their own country by this deeply misogynistic and cruel stain of a constitutional amendment.

The turnout already appears to be high and hopefully we'll do this.
posted by o seasons o castles at 4:35 AM on May 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


I have my fingers crossed that people see the absolute sense in voting yes. Get rid of these outrageous restrictions. Hopefully one day my backwards state in Australia will do the same.
posted by h00py at 4:50 AM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Early turnout figures look high, according to journalist Gavin Reilly on twitter. Could exceed the marriage referendum, which was the highest number of people ever for a referendum. That's in raw numbers of voters -- as a percentage of the electorate it was seventh highest at 60.5, although some of the higher ones had general elections at the same time.. (Checking the turnout figures over the years, I was just reminded that the marriage referendum was also the Presidential age referendum that no-one cared about).
posted by rollick at 5:08 AM on May 25, 2018


The Journal has an approximate timeline for the vote and results. There should be an exit poll sometime this evening, but the count only begins on Saturday morning at 9. Official results should be available sometime in the afternoon/evening of Saturday.

If Yes wins, is there likely to be a U.S.-style backlash where disgruntled Nos make it so difficult for women to access services in some areas that it might as well still be illegal?

Even if Yes wins, it's still possible (but unlikely) that abortion remains as illegal as it is now in Ireland. All the referendum is doing is removing Article 40.3.3 and giving the Oireachtas (parliament) permission to legislate instead. Until they legislate the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Act 2013 is still valid. The government has proposed legislation, but that still has to pass through the Oireachtas, and could potentially be watered down. So hopefully as acb already mentioned above there will be a large enough Yes vote.
posted by scorbet at 5:09 AM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Incidentally, there is a theory on twitter about the obligatory photos of nuns voting in Ireland that's worth a read.
posted by scorbet at 5:14 AM on May 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


A couple of useful places to follow:

RTE news on twitter
Irish Times liveblog
The Journal liveblog

The RTE exit poll will be announced at close of polls (on the Late Late Show, God help us), after 2200 Irish time, probably closer to midnight. (that's IST, or GMT-1).
posted by rollick at 5:18 AM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]




Ireland is tiny so even if there is only one hospital in the country providing abortion services it will still be fairly accessible to all.

I wouldn't be so sure; rural transport is really shit. For a small country, it takes an awful long time to get from A to B, if A or B isn't Dublin. Last year's Bus Éireann strike really brought that into focus. Easier than needing a ferry or a plane abroad, sure, but a barrier enough.
posted by macdara at 6:07 AM on May 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


I am sure all of the TDs who pushed for more rural buses so people can drink in the evenings will be right on the transport issues for women right away though!

(Bitter sarcasm there for those who are lucky enough not to have heard of the Healy-Raes and Mattie McGrath.)
posted by lesbiassparrow at 6:29 AM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


I wouldn't be so sure; rural transport is really shit. For a small country, it takes an awful long time to get from A to B, if A or B isn't Dublin. Last year's Bus Éireann strike really brought that into focus. Easier than needing a ferry or a plane abroad, sure, but a barrier enough.

Well, that's why I said 'fairly accessible'. My mother lives in a very remote place but it's would still be possible to get from there to any major city within 6 or 7 hours max using public transport.
posted by roolya_boolya at 6:38 AM on May 25, 2018


An Irish friend explained that you can’t vote absentee in Ireland, and you can’t come back to vote if you’ve lived abroad for more than 18 months. So all the young people who emigrated for jobs...nope.

This is broadly a good thing. Something like six million Americans are eligible for Irish citizenship. Franchising foreign-resident voters in the elections of a country with only 3.5 million voters is a disaster. I mean, we've already had million of illegal American dollars and a handful of illegal American canvassers on the ground and they've fucked this whole thing up unbelievably.

For a small country, it takes an awful long time to get from A to B, if A or B isn't Dublin.

A or B will be in Dublin though; where else would you be able to do it? We can't even get an IKEA built without opposition in Cork.
posted by DarlingBri at 9:16 AM on May 25, 2018


The Irish Times are going to do an exit poll too. The RTE one is due at 2330, so this one might come a bit earlier. I think nothing can be announced before close of polls.
posted by rollick at 9:30 AM on May 25, 2018


An Irish friend explained that you can’t vote absentee in Ireland, and you can’t come back to vote if you’ve lived abroad for more than 18 months.

This is broadly a good thing.

I understand the utility in not allowing nonresident citizens to distort elections in the Republic. Not only is this a concern with Americans who discover they have an Irish grandparent, it is also a concern that there are very many Irish passport holders in Northern Ireland. I fully support their right to Irish citizenship, however if they did participate in elections it would most likely lead to a boost to Sinn Fein for reasons that have nothing to do with the political environment in the Republic and everything to do with the North's politics.
However as somebody that left Ireland in the 90's but who still has very strong ties to it and hopes to return one day, it saddens me that I have no way to vote in at least constitutional or presidential elections.
One solution to the problem that I can see is that people can maintain the right to vote in these elections if they have first established the right to vote in elections through residency.
posted by foleypt at 9:32 AM on May 25, 2018


10pm. Sin é, chairde. Adh mór oraibh...
posted by rollick at 2:02 PM on May 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


The Irish Times Exit Poll says 68/32 in favour of repeal...
posted by scorbet at 2:06 PM on May 25, 2018 [8 favorites]


Holy shit. A landslide victory for yes, according to one exit poll.

Ireland has voted by a landslide margin to change the constitution so that abortion can be legalised, according to an exit poll conducted for The Irish Times by Ipsos/MRBI.

The poll suggests that the margin of victory for the Yes side in today’s referendum will be 68 to 32 – a stunning victory for the Yes side after a long and often divisive campaign.

posted by rollick at 2:07 PM on May 25, 2018 [5 favorites]




The Irish Times Exit Poll says 68/32 in favour of repeal...

Please to all the powers that be may this be true! We've been dealing with depressing and despairing texts all evening with people too afraid to hope...
posted by lesbiassparrow at 2:12 PM on May 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


Wow. That would be amazing. I have my fingers crossed.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:17 PM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


There'll be another separate exit poll in about an hour to confirm. There's no way they could be off by that much though. (right??)

Amazing though. The original 1983 amendment was 66% in favour, 34% against. This is a reversal and then some. The same people involved in campaigning, in some cases. Hard to overstate what a seismic result this is. I'd say even the Yes campaign is shocked.

Hopefully it makes the passage of the legislation (and the dismissal of the inevitable appeals) that much easier.
posted by rollick at 2:20 PM on May 25, 2018 [5 favorites]


I have a horrid teeth-grindy thing when I am waiting and nervous, and my partner just knew that the exit poll was in from the lack of Cronching out of my mouth. Still not uncrossing though.

Terrificly done.
posted by threetwentytwo at 2:32 PM on May 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


That is distressingly heartening! The stuff about the evening turnout being low was doing my head in (what can you take from that on a sunny Friday? Just butterflies) so this, this could be a big deal. We'll see how the 11:30 one from RTE looks. You hope that it can't be that far wrong but after the, uh, last few times I've thought that...
posted by ocular shenanigans at 2:36 PM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Some YES stats from the poll:

Dublin: 70%
Leinster excluding Dublin: 66%
Munster: 66%
Connacht-Ulster: 59% (Expected to be a strong NO region beforehand)

Women: 70%
Men: 65%

18-24: 87%
Only age group with NO majority was 65+
posted by rollick at 2:38 PM on May 25, 2018 [10 favorites]


It's about damn time there was a large political movement that was hopeful and effective.
posted by ChrisR at 2:40 PM on May 25, 2018 [4 favorites]


The second exit poll is announced on the goddamn Late Late show at 11:30. Have to watch it, but it is garbage TV. Some twitter wag said it was like having to get your leaving cert results by sticking your hand up a cow's arse.
posted by stonepharisee at 2:54 PM on May 25, 2018 [9 favorites]


The Late Late Show RTE/B&A poll is being announced now: 69/31 YES/NO
posted by rollick at 3:21 PM on May 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


I was striving for an appropriate Father Ted reference, but thankfully Graham Linehan himself beat me to it.
posted by The Nutmeg of Consolation at 3:21 PM on May 25, 2018 [6 favorites]


The Late Late Show RTE/B&A poll is being announced now: 69/31 YES/NO

That was almost worth listening to the woman wittering on about angels and Jason Byrne for.
posted by scorbet at 3:23 PM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Congrats Ireland!
posted by rodlymight at 3:25 PM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Fucking massive!
posted by stonepharisee at 3:30 PM on May 25, 2018


The Late Late Show RTE/B&A poll is being announced now: 69/31 YES/NO

Well. Nice.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 3:38 PM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


YAY
posted by poffin boffin at 3:47 PM on May 25, 2018


God, this is almost too good to be true. It's so, so heartening to see that the vile crap the No campaign has been spewing hasn't gotten to people here.
posted by Berreggnog at 3:55 PM on May 25, 2018 [1 favorite]


Imagine being one of the Americans who flew there specifically to canvass for No. I hope they are all very unhappy because they are bad people and should feel bad.

Thrilled with this result.
posted by fifteen schnitzengruben is my limit at 4:29 PM on May 25, 2018 [12 favorites]


I'm trying not to get too excited, because I fell asleep on June 23 and November 8 2016 expecting very different things than what I woke up to, but, lads, I think we might have done this...

For the record:

Irish Times exit poll projects Ireland has voted by landslide to repeal Eighth Amendment

Exit polls a shock to political system

A preview of the legislation that might pass the Dáil relatively smoothly given a firm YES: the proposed legislation to be enacted post the 8th.
posted by roolya_boolya at 4:59 PM on May 25, 2018 [7 favorites]


Imagine being one of the Americans who flew there specifically to canvass for No. I hope they are all very unhappy because they are bad people and should feel bad.

I hope that when they grow up a bit they realise the world can be complicated and they put their energy into making it a better place .
posted by roolya_boolya at 5:10 PM on May 25, 2018 [5 favorites]


And now #repealed is trending on Irish twitter. Don't let us be counting the chickens.
posted by roolya_boolya at 5:20 PM on May 25, 2018


So, so happy for this result. With all the other fuckery going on in the world, it feel good just to take a breath and enjoy this.

Irish Times journalist Fintan O'Toole on Twitter:
There were two silences. The silenced women of centuries. And the quiet, calm dignity of the ballot paper being marked.

Can we finally stop caricaturing older Irish people? There were as many votes cast today in favour of repeal by those aged 65 and older as by those aged 25 and under.

Another reason to be cheerful is that Ireland is the first Anglophone country to face the full panoply of Trump/Brexit/Bannon tactics and withstand that onslaught.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:29 PM on May 25, 2018 [13 favorites]


Another reason to be cheerful is that Ireland is the first Anglophone country to face the full panoply of Trump/Brexit/Bannon tactics and withstand that onslaught.

*hibernoAnglophone: there are subtleties in our culture that you just can't hack...yet (the lols when yerman tried to compare Brexit to 1916 in the Irish Times)

And, much as I want to feel triumphant tonight, we have to wake up tomorrow and get that legislation through the Dáil.
posted by roolya_boolya at 6:05 PM on May 25, 2018 [4 favorites]




Corless, 60, a former secretary at a textile factory who gave up work to bring up her four children, developing an interest in local history after they'd left, is finding the explosion of interest from international news organisations rather trying.

The home was a big presence in her own childhood, and her own uncomfortable memories about the home's children are what sparked her research. She remembers seeing the 8ft-high wall on her way to school. "They surrounded it completely – stone walls. There was broken glass cemented into the top of the walls. It used to glisten in the sun. The kids couldn't get out. I would have been six or seven. I remember the kids going to school – the noise of them marching in their big clogs." Corless wore proper shoes, but the home children wore wooden shoes. "They were long-wearing. Everybody remembers the noise of the clogs."

posted by roolya_boolya at 6:30 PM on May 25, 2018 [3 favorites]


The last two comments might seem off topic, but if you want to understand the landslide I would argue that this is why.
posted by roolya_boolya at 6:40 PM on May 25, 2018 [5 favorites]


Catherine Corless, previously on metafilter; Tuam, previously. She is a hero.
posted by rtha at 7:18 PM on May 25, 2018 [2 favorites]




Yes! Yes! Yes! Hope lives!
posted by stillmoving at 7:25 PM on May 25, 2018 [2 favorites]


Yes!!!!!!
posted by nicodine at 8:35 PM on May 25, 2018


I'm still unable to process the scale of this. Hats off to the fierce women who ran what must be one of the most successful political campaigns this country has ever seen, in the face of indifference from the majority of the political correspondent class, mostly unable or unwilling to understand that much of politics happens far from parliament and government buildings. Who were constantly scolded by commentators for their tone when they were fighting for basic rights and dignity. Who even in their time of victory haven't forgotten their sisters in the North.

Today is going to be emotional and historic. An amazing victory.

---

"Consider this: a grassroots feminist movement trashed the combined might of the church, the patriarchy, American evangelicals and the Alt-right. #repealthe8th" - @markohalloran

"Meeja types blindsided by this: I know your next hot take is the smug celebrations of so-called repealers. Know this: it's called relief, it's not smug, it's exhausted, and it's less a rebel yell, more a puffy-faced, snotty-nosed cry-laugh of near madness." - @betaburns

"We were told to be less vocal at the start of this campaign: “think of the middle ground”. Everyone spoke up and said we ARE the middle ground. Now it’s “don’t be seen to celebrate a win.” Don’t celebrate? This is a major human rights victory. Don’t let them silence you now" - @annieatkins

"And now, we go North. @All4Choice ✊" - @Ciaraioch
posted by o seasons o castles at 10:57 PM on May 25, 2018 [15 favorites]


RTE has released some more of the details of their exit poll here. The age/province data looks broadly similar to the Irish Times one, but they also have party affiliations:

The only major party whose voters rejected the referendum was Fianna Fáil, which had 50.3% No voters and 49.7% Yes.

The Yes vote among supporters of the other parties was: Fine Gael 74.9%; Sinn Féin 74.5%; Labour 80.3%; Green Party 88.9%; Solidarity/PBP 82.1%.

Supporters of Renua were 100% opposed to changing the Constitution.

posted by scorbet at 12:33 AM on May 26, 2018


cheers to you, my brothers and sisters in Ireland. Congratulations.
posted by mwhybark at 12:37 AM on May 26, 2018


I am hungover but up to watch the results coming in. I hope I can see John McGuirk writhe in agony at some point, along with the whole bunch from the Iona Institute. They are bad people who should feel bad.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 1:02 AM on May 26, 2018 [4 favorites]


I'm so fucking happy I can't stop crying.
posted by roolya_boolya at 1:06 AM on May 26, 2018 [6 favorites]


I am looking forward to never seeing John McGuirk again. Hopefully next week we can ceremonially tow the Iona (not an institute) Institute out into the sea and sink it.
posted by o seasons o castles at 1:17 AM on May 26, 2018 [2 favorites]


It found that 72.1% of women and 65.9% of men voted Yes.

The only age cohort to vote No were those aged 65 and over, where 41.3% voted Yes and 58.7% voted No.


Erm... is there a case for limiting any future (beyond Ireland) similar referendum to the people directly concerned, ie. women of reproductive age (18-48)?

Probably unconstitutional in most countries, but the gender and demographic differences got me thinking.
posted by Kwadeng at 1:20 AM on May 26, 2018


I am enjoying Anne Rabbitte's shocked and stony face on the TV. Plus her saying she will have to support the legislation if the exit polls are true. (We'll see how long that lasts.)
posted by lesbiassparrow at 1:22 AM on May 26, 2018


Asked what factors influenced their vote, 43% cited people's personal stories as covered in the media; 34% experiences of people they knew; 10% campaign posters; 7% direct contact with campaigners; and 24% "other" factors.

From the RTE article about the exit poll.

A huge thank you to everyone who was willing to stand up and talk about a private and painful part of their lives. Hearing real people's stories definitely made a difference.

(But I'm actually a bit surprised at how many people were actually open to listening and changed their minds.)
posted by scorbet at 1:49 AM on May 26, 2018 [9 favorites]


Congratulations Ireland!
posted by daybeforetheday at 2:07 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


Let's not forget that we now face some difficult questions with no easy answers. Specifically, which pub, and what time?
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 2:25 AM on May 26, 2018 [6 favorites]


I hope that when they grow up a bit they realise the world can be complicated and they put their energy into making it a better place .

I think they think that's what they're doing already. The best we can hope for is that they find a nice hobby like carving matchsticks or something. That said, the effect of a bunch of foreigners coming in and lecturing you from their moral soapbox often runs counter to their expectations, so they were probably working for Yes anyway.
posted by Grangousier at 2:47 AM on May 26, 2018


Despite the hammering they are getting in the voting 'Save the 8th' is now saying they will oppose any legislation and also the opening of any abortion clinics. That came minutes after they were on RTE asking for tolerance from the yes side, and admitting they'd not offered that when the original amendment was passed.

Always classy that lot.
posted by lesbiassparrow at 3:17 AM on May 26, 2018 [3 favorites]


I hope I can see John McGuirk writhe in agony at some point, along with the whole bunch from the Iona Institute. They are bad people who should feel bad.

Is it too much to expect his career to come to an end? Dude just can't stop publicly fucking up, failure after failure in these high-profile campaigns. Can't imagine him actually honouring anything he says.
posted by ocular shenanigans at 3:21 AM on May 26, 2018 [2 favorites]


Can't imagine him actually honouring anything he says.

As of half an hour ago:

Dublin Central has completed its tally and the sorting of votes has begun. With 108 boxes tallied the Yes vote is 76.4 per cent and 23.3 per cent No. Spoilt votes were 0.3 per cent.
posted by rollick at 3:27 AM on May 26, 2018 [6 favorites]


Fantastic!
posted by knapah at 4:58 AM on May 26, 2018


Surprisingly thorough social media analysis of the campaign from the Dublin Inquirer
posted by stonepharisee at 5:01 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


I suspect McGuirk is looking up flights out of Shannon as we speak and I'd like to apologise in advance to US MeFites.
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 5:46 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


Surprisingly thorough social media analysis of the campaign from the Dublin Inquirer
That's fascinating, because the tone was pretty critical of the yes side's social media strategy, which focused on fundraising, organizing canvassers, and energizing supporters, rather than convincing undecided voters. The article seems to think that the no side's strategy, which aimed highly emotional ads at undecided voters, would be more effective. But the results seem to cast some doubt on that. I think that's a positive development, although who knows whether it can be generalized to other situations.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:47 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


The official results are starting to trickle in. Final count expected roughly around 6pm, I think. Here's a tracker from the Irish Times to follow. Here's one from RTE too, sure.
posted by rollick at 5:59 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


I am so fucking happy for Ireland. It’s been a rough few years for Good, but goddamn did Good kick Evils ass in this one. What a hopeful win.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:18 AM on May 26, 2018 [4 favorites]


Do you think that yes is going to win in every constituency? It sure looks like it might. That would be pretty great.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:13 AM on May 26, 2018


On the RTE stream a little while ago they had someone reporting from Donegal (far northwest) that the preliminary count there was 51% No, 49% Yes. That hasn't been made official yet, but seemed that might be the one constituency where the vote fails. It's nonetheless amazing to see the Yes vote hitting or exceeding 60% in a lot of other areas that tend to be more conservative.
posted by The Nutmeg of Consolation at 8:29 AM on May 26, 2018


How the Yes and No sides won and lost the abortion referendum.

Long article on the shape of the campaigning from both sides.
posted by rollick at 8:43 AM on May 26, 2018


Yeah, it looks like Donegal is about to become the new Roscommon.
I am astonished that the Yes side won by such a huge margin and was afraid it would either be much closer or the No side would nick it.
It seems like such an obvious choice but so did Brexit and Clinton. Luckily that strain of stupidity didn't spread to this country (yet!).
posted by drugstorefrog at 8:46 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


According to the trackers, 37 out of 40 consitituencies have tallied their results, with Yes in the lead by around 650k votes. Is there any possibility that No could win, or can I go ahead and pop over to the liquor store and get some Irish whiskey to celebrate?
posted by zombieflanders at 8:46 AM on May 26, 2018


> "Is there any possibility that No could win, or can I go ahead and pop over to the liquor store and get some Irish whiskey to celebrate?"

650k is something like 13.5% of the entire population of Ireland. If only 9.25% of constituencies have untallied results, I'd say you're pretty darn safe buying that whiskey. That's probably a lower total voting population than the lead.
posted by kyrademon at 8:55 AM on May 26, 2018 [3 favorites]


At this point, No can catch up only if there's huge support from the Good Folk.
posted by The Nutmeg of Consolation at 8:56 AM on May 26, 2018 [3 favorites]


Yeah, it looks like Donegal is about to become the new Roscommon.

It should be pointed out that 'Donegal' the constituency is not the same as Donegal the county, as part of the south (including Bundoran) was subsumed into the Sligo-Leitrim constituency. That's what Donegal heads on Twitter tell me anyway.
posted by macdara at 8:59 AM on May 26, 2018 [2 favorites]


Is there any possibility that No could win

Total electorate of the 3 missing constituencies is less than 400k. Plus, they were all tallied earlier, and only Donegal looked like a No, and that was 52%-48%.
posted by scorbet at 8:59 AM on May 26, 2018 [2 favorites]


No, it's no longer mathematically possible for repeal to fail. There are about 250k votes left unreported.
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 9:01 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


Feel free to drop your Irish social media hashtags and whatnot here. After #hometovote I need my heart warming victory celebration fix.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:01 AM on May 26, 2018


I saw on the RTE twitter feed that there is a possibility of a court objection from the losing side, if they file within seven days. However they have to show both that (1) there are grounds to dispute, and (2) said grounds would have had a material impact on the result. This is partly why the landslide result is so heartening. Combined with the high turnout, it makes the mandate bulletproof.

Relatedly, here is a good comment I saw on reddit, on the chances of pro-life TDs blocking the legislation:
Had it been even a ten point difference they'd be able to get a reliable quota for themselves out of the pro-life vote, especially in rural constituencies.

We're now in a situation where there's a thirty something point difference. That's a different world. Even Connacht was majority Yes. It's likely every constituency in the country is majority yes, or very close to it. There is no room in that case to be a pro-life TD, to the extent of blocking legislation and so on. That's the kind of shit that makes you transfer toxic.

Pro-life TDs are now looking at supporting an issue thst would make them even less popular than if they had, for example, decided to block gay marriage legislation and continued to shite on about how they opposed it.

Their worlds are shattered this morning. Their best hope now is to hope that they can make people forget their opposition.

I assume Jack Chambers is seeing if medical school will take him back?
posted by rollick at 9:05 AM on May 26, 2018 [9 favorites]


Yeah, it looks like Donegal is about to become the new Roscommon.

Had good satisfaction earlier at the disgruntled face of Rónán "Mental health has no evidence base" Mullen, interviewed from the Roscommon count centre. He's not from Roscommon at all -- clearly he'd been hoping to maximise his chances of friendly territory.
posted by rollick at 9:14 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


It's amazing to think that this vote may never even have happened had it not been for the unmasking of the Irish Catholic Church as an utter moral failure, an unmasking largely taking place in the decades since Ireland's Eighth Amendment. The death of the Church's stranglehold on political power in Ireland has been long overdue, and came about not because of the encroachment of modernity, but because of the rotten void from within.
posted by 2N2222 at 9:18 AM on May 26, 2018 [10 favorites]


schadenfrau, I'm following the obvious #repealedthe8th, and there's #togetherforNI if anyone is ready for the next scrap.
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 9:20 AM on May 26, 2018 [2 favorites]


Thanks all. Now I just need the find out the best amount of anti-choice tears to mix with the whiskey.
posted by zombieflanders at 10:11 AM on May 26, 2018


Long, but really interesting: How the Yes and No sides won and lost the abortion referendum
posted by rtha at 10:14 AM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


It's official! 2:1 yes!
posted by Berreggnog at 10:20 AM on May 26, 2018 [5 favorites]


Just copying from the Irish Times live blog, here are statements by Leo Varadkar (Taoiseach/Prime Minister):

"We all want to ensure that there are fewer crisis pregnancies and fewer abortions. Thanks to sex education, wider availability of contraceptives and emergency contraception, abortion rates are already falling and teenage pregnancy is at its lowest since the 1960s.

"We will continue to improve access to sexual health and education to reduce crisis pregnancies and abortions further in the year ahead.

"We will also continue to make Ireland a better place to raise a family. We’ve made a good start with two years of free pre-school, free GP visits for young children, subsidised childcare, paid paternity leave and increases in the Working Family Payment and Home Carers Tax Credit.

"In the years ahead we will build on these policies so Ireland will become one of the best places in the world to raise a family. Families of all forms."
posted by stonepharisee at 10:44 AM on May 26, 2018 [10 favorites]


Fionn Barra's on Douglas St, across the river from Together For Yes Cork HQ, in the room when it happened.
posted by Zeinab Badawi's Twenty Hotels at 11:25 AM on May 26, 2018 [4 favorites]


But I'm actually a bit surprised at how many people were actually open to listening and changed their minds.

I've been so (happily) shocked by the landslide all day. For the whole week the best I could imagine was mid to high 50s for yes. But with the gift of retrospect the landslide seems so obvious. Almost everyone I know was a yes, I kept hearing stories about older people, younger people, all kinds of people who were voting yes for compassion. But I didn't quite have enough faith to process what it meant for the vote. And yet here we are. We repealed the fucking 8th!

My dear Americans. I hope this gives you hope. Get out there. Talk to people, knock on doors, be human, be real and talk about the facts and issues. It works.
posted by roolya_boolya at 3:38 PM on May 26, 2018 [13 favorites]


An absolute win for Mná na hEireann. I feel so happy that our little backward country is a little less backward today. I feel a bit disappointed that both my parents voted no, but we'll get over that with some good old fashioned Irish just not talking about it until it's sort of forgotten, but not, forever.
posted by Elmore at 4:09 PM on May 26, 2018 [10 favorites]


I feel a bit disappointed that both my parents voted no, but we'll get over that with some good old fashioned Irish just not talking about it until it's sort of forgotten, but not, forever.

With the greatest of respect, and in the spirit of what got us where we are today, why not try something different and talk to them about it. We got the YES, you can be magnanimous, give them a chance to explain their thinking and they might just listen to yours.
posted by roolya_boolya at 4:21 PM on May 26, 2018 [1 favorite]


Yeah, no, I did talk to them. I wish I had talked to them earlier, but I always knew how they were going to vote. My quip about how we Irish tend to push down the uncomfortable conversations and pretend everything is grand, was just that - a quip. Also, I'd had a really shitty day yesterday and that coloured everything for me. Today is much brighter.
posted by Elmore at 4:38 PM on May 26, 2018 [4 favorites]


Irish women are amazing.

As a friend of mine once quipped, “I'm Irish. I can do anything—except have an abortion”. It looks like she'll have to retire that line now.
posted by acb at 4:59 PM on May 26, 2018 [3 favorites]


This video of people chanting Savita's name at Dublin Castle is incredible.
posted by roolya_boolya at 6:56 PM on May 26, 2018 [4 favorites]


Feel free to drop your Irish social media hashtags and whatnot here. After #hometovote I need my heart warming victory celebration fix.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:01 AM on May 26

Reading up on the cases that propelled this movement has been heartwrenching, but one of the most schadenfreude-y bits on twitter was people's responses to McGuirk's pledge that he will "never take a political job again" if 75% of Dublin Central voted Yes (link to Irish Examiner, "Calls for John McGuirk to honour pledge and retire from political campaigns").
The Dublin Central constituency has in fact closed at 76.51% in favour of Yes, just over the 3-1 margin.
I don't see it in the article but thought I saw a tweet from someone to the effect of "Well it should be much easier now for you to leave Ireland as Ryanair has 9 extra seats open" (representing the number of women who would have had to travel abroad for abortions under the Eighth).
---

There was also a tweet-thread (that I cannot locate now) from someone hometovote who missed his train and had to change his itinerary, which meant that he would have 20 minutes to make the 16-minute trip from the train station to his polling station before voting closed. He kept live-tweeting every snafu (long queues, malfunctioning machines, traffic jams) but managed to get on a taxi that got him there with only minutes to spare!
---

The efforts that people went to in order to take a stand are incredible. So glad that the results answered those efforts. Congratulations, Ireland!
posted by Sockin'inthefreeworld at 9:32 PM on May 26, 2018 [11 favorites]


2015: Equal marriage - 62.1% for, 37.9% against
2018: Reproductive rights - 66.4% for, 33.6% against

Congratulations to those of you who have worked so hard for these two massive victories for freedom and equality for the Irish people. Light in the dark for those of us who hope for a more progressive, decent, caring and compassionate world. And something tells me you're just getting started...
posted by hangashore at 10:20 PM on May 26, 2018 [10 favorites]


After the result was announced in Dublin Castle yesterday evening we went up to see the Savita mural in Portobello. By then it was almost entirely covered in handwritten notes. Incredibly moving. I'm still mostly at a loss for words over what's happened since her tragic and totally unnecessary death, the campaigning for this and the marriage referendum. I'll never forget the image of her dancing in blue at a St. Patrick's Day parade. I'll never forget what this country's laws did to her and how this country's people eventually showed they understood compassion and a woman's right to choose.

Now this has set me off again this morning - "She is finally home ..."
posted by o seasons o castles at 2:08 AM on May 27, 2018 [11 favorites]




Good speech by Clare Daly on the result of the Referendum to Repeal the 8th Amendment.

I was thinking today that some of us have really come a long way in Ireland. I remember the first time I ever saw mention of abortion/terminations as something that was a right rather than a sin, and it was in an Anne McCaffrey book! At the time I think I was sortof horrified, because I knew that abortion was wrong and killing babies, but it made me think about it. I'm not saying it changed my mind, but it was the first tiny tiny step on the long road to realising that not everything I'd grown up with as "right" actually was.
posted by Fence at 12:12 PM on May 29, 2018 [2 favorites]


Fintan O'Toole has a good article in the Guardian 'If only Brexit had been run like Ireland’s referendum' with a breakdown of some of the things that the Yes side (including the government) got right.


I've been so (happily) shocked by the landslide all day. For the whole week the best I could imagine was mid to high 50s for yes. But with the gift of retrospect the landslide seems so obvious. Almost everyone I know was a yes,


I’m not living in Ireland and far too long gone to go #hometovote, but I was in Dublin for a week in May. And yeah, anyone I spoke to then and my entire Irish twitter feed was Yes, but I was assuming I was in a bubble and that it would probably end up like the 1995 divorce referendum and just squeak over the line. I was pretty surprised at the exit polls...

(For that matter, I didn’t remember that the 2002 referendum where they wanted to "prevent risk of suicide being invoked as grounds for an abortion" was so narrowly defeated at 50.4% No. And that was only 16 years ago.)
posted by scorbet at 1:49 PM on May 29, 2018 [1 favorite]


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