Of the 385,000 electric buses worldwide, 99% of them are in China
December 13, 2018 1:40 PM Subscribe
Bloomberg: Electric buses are hurting the oil industry. Buses consume 30x more fuel than cars, so 84% of the fuel displaced by electric vehicles so far has come from the usage of electric buses, compared to just 16% attributed to the use of electric passenger vehicles such as those produced by Tesla or Nissan.
The Guardian: All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity of Shenzen (pop 12m) are now electric, and soon all 22,000 taxis will be too. Although it remains expensive for cities to introduce electric buses – one bus costs around 1.8 million yuan (£208,000) – Shenzhen was able to go all-electric thanks to generous subsidies from both central and local government. “Typically, more than half of the cost of the bus is subsidised by government,” says Ma. “In terms of operation there is another subsidy: if we run our buses for a distance of more than 60,000km we receive just under 500,000 yuan [£58,000] from local government.” This subsidy is put towards reducing the cost of the bus fares: “The government looks at the public transport very much as social welfare.”
The Guardian: All 16,000 buses in the fast-growing Chinese megacity of Shenzen (pop 12m) are now electric, and soon all 22,000 taxis will be too. Although it remains expensive for cities to introduce electric buses – one bus costs around 1.8 million yuan (£208,000) – Shenzhen was able to go all-electric thanks to generous subsidies from both central and local government. “Typically, more than half of the cost of the bus is subsidised by government,” says Ma. “In terms of operation there is another subsidy: if we run our buses for a distance of more than 60,000km we receive just under 500,000 yuan [£58,000] from local government.” This subsidy is put towards reducing the cost of the bus fares: “The government looks at the public transport very much as social welfare.”
Huh. I was wondering idly the other day at what point electric car uptake would start making a noticeable difference in fuel demands; I never gave a thought to electric buses.
From the Guardian article, it looks like there are two big barriers to adoption - cost of the vehicles, and the development of charging infrastructure.
posted by nubs at 2:19 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
From the Guardian article, it looks like there are two big barriers to adoption - cost of the vehicles, and the development of charging infrastructure.
posted by nubs at 2:19 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
It's so nice to see a government behaving competently, in at least one area.
posted by aramaic at 2:19 PM on December 13, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by aramaic at 2:19 PM on December 13, 2018 [10 favorites]
Buses consume 30x more fuel than cars
In what sense? My car's fuel consumption is about 8 l/100 km, 240 l/100 km is something a tank can burn, but not a bus (they burn about 32 l/100 km)
posted by hat_eater at 2:20 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
In what sense? My car's fuel consumption is about 8 l/100 km, 240 l/100 km is something a tank can burn, but not a bus (they burn about 32 l/100 km)
posted by hat_eater at 2:20 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
Possibly the bus being in continuous use throughout the day is factored in?
posted by Artw at 2:29 PM on December 13, 2018 [13 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:29 PM on December 13, 2018 [13 favorites]
There is also the consideration that the US is far less public transportation oriented than many industrialized countries. Our infrastructure is heavily weighted towards automobiles. And trucks. The Tesla Semi technology might have a greater environmental impact than an urban bus for us...
posted by jim in austin at 2:30 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by jim in austin at 2:30 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
In what sense?
You probably need to factor in that a bus is running nearly constantly all day every day as opposed to a car that will spend most of its day parked. The Bloomberg article is looking at fuel use over time, not fuel use over distance.
The startup costs may be steep but I would think the fewer moving parts and greater reliability of electric motors compared to gasoline or diesel would help defray those costs over time...not to mention resulting in a somewhat more reliable bus service overall.
posted by mstokes650 at 2:30 PM on December 13, 2018 [5 favorites]
You probably need to factor in that a bus is running nearly constantly all day every day as opposed to a car that will spend most of its day parked. The Bloomberg article is looking at fuel use over time, not fuel use over distance.
The startup costs may be steep but I would think the fewer moving parts and greater reliability of electric motors compared to gasoline or diesel would help defray those costs over time...not to mention resulting in a somewhat more reliable bus service overall.
posted by mstokes650 at 2:30 PM on December 13, 2018 [5 favorites]
The startup costs may be steep but I would think the fewer moving parts and greater reliability of electric motors compared to gasoline or diesel would help defray those costs over time
Yes; but I think these may also become a good example of why we need to explore a multitude of solutions - cold weather (=poorer battery performance) & steeper terrain are preventing further adoption of e-buses in other parts of China, so these may not work everywhere.
posted by nubs at 2:37 PM on December 13, 2018
Yes; but I think these may also become a good example of why we need to explore a multitude of solutions - cold weather (=poorer battery performance) & steeper terrain are preventing further adoption of e-buses in other parts of China, so these may not work everywhere.
posted by nubs at 2:37 PM on December 13, 2018
Buses, taxis, vanpools, semis, and maybe then the always idling police cars?
posted by BrotherCaine at 2:39 PM on December 13, 2018
posted by BrotherCaine at 2:39 PM on December 13, 2018
Electric buses make so much sense. Fixed routes, so you're required range is known. Lot's of idling time. Why waste it on a running engine? Most articles I read mention that they may cost more up front, but the savings from fuel and maintenance potentially make for a lower lifetime cost. The BYD buses discussed in the article get somewhere around 150 miles of range, but of course they can go further with bigger battery packs. Proterra set a range record of 1,100 miles. The university I work out is electrifying with BYDs. They've got a huge bank of chargers next to a parking structure covered by a solar array. That's the future I want to live in.
On preview: regarding steeper terrain and colder weather... Proterra seems to have this down too after their tests of a new drive train in Utah. So they can work everywhere as long as they're engineered to.
posted by Mister Cheese at 2:43 PM on December 13, 2018 [9 favorites]
On preview: regarding steeper terrain and colder weather... Proterra seems to have this down too after their tests of a new drive train in Utah. So they can work everywhere as long as they're engineered to.
posted by Mister Cheese at 2:43 PM on December 13, 2018 [9 favorites]
Buses are big enough that they should give a variety of options for power source, with the same chassis and motor configuration. An electric bus should be pretty similar to a hybrid bus, at least.
Maybe you could even build them with some sort of modular configuration so that the hybrid engine is a "power pack" style (used on heavy equipment and tanks, designed to be swapped out to minimize downtime) but could be replaced with additional batteries for all-electric operation.
The idea being you could have the same design of bus for an entire fleet but run hybrids on the routes that require it, and pure electric on the ones that don't. Or you could run hybrids during the summer when air conditioning would drain a battery pack too quickly for the route's range requirements, but batteries in fair weather. Anyway, you'd have flexibility.
My guess is that transport operators aren't going to want to have multiple models of bus if they can possibly avoid it, so providing confidence that the same chassis can run on any route in a transport provider's area (which eases the logistics of fitting buses to routes) is probably a good step towards acceptance of the technology.
posted by Kadin2048 at 2:49 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
Maybe you could even build them with some sort of modular configuration so that the hybrid engine is a "power pack" style (used on heavy equipment and tanks, designed to be swapped out to minimize downtime) but could be replaced with additional batteries for all-electric operation.
The idea being you could have the same design of bus for an entire fleet but run hybrids on the routes that require it, and pure electric on the ones that don't. Or you could run hybrids during the summer when air conditioning would drain a battery pack too quickly for the route's range requirements, but batteries in fair weather. Anyway, you'd have flexibility.
My guess is that transport operators aren't going to want to have multiple models of bus if they can possibly avoid it, so providing confidence that the same chassis can run on any route in a transport provider's area (which eases the logistics of fitting buses to routes) is probably a good step towards acceptance of the technology.
posted by Kadin2048 at 2:49 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
Electric buses are effectively go-anywhere trams ("trolleys"). I wonder whether improving battery technology would allow the buses to be charged intermittently throughout the day, so they could have a lighter battery pack and still make it through their route? I'm envisaging overhead chargers along the route, or maybe concealed power contacts at bus stops.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:54 PM on December 13, 2018
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:54 PM on December 13, 2018
Good?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:01 PM on December 13, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:01 PM on December 13, 2018 [3 favorites]
And the problem is?
posted by SansPoint at 3:35 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by SansPoint at 3:35 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
Bloomberg: Electric buses are hurting the oil industry.
Yes, good. Hurt them more, please.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:36 PM on December 13, 2018 [26 favorites]
Yes, good. Hurt them more, please.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:36 PM on December 13, 2018 [26 favorites]
Joe in Australia: Yes, Proterra have 1/2 Megawatt chargers with overhead connections for on-route charging.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 3:36 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 3:36 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
And the problem is?
How do we get more of this happening, faster?
posted by nubs at 3:38 PM on December 13, 2018 [7 favorites]
How do we get more of this happening, faster?
posted by nubs at 3:38 PM on December 13, 2018 [7 favorites]
Oh yeah, China being wild those BYD electric buses might record their carbon usage onto a blockchain or something so users can get social credits.
posted by Damienmce at 3:57 PM on December 13, 2018
posted by Damienmce at 3:57 PM on December 13, 2018
* BYD, the company cited, is 25% owned by Berkshire Hathaway. So, Warren Buffett strikes again. Not saying that's good or bad, but a consideration.
* Electric vehicles mean batteries. Which means lithium. Petroleum may have its extraction problems, but lithium isn't problem-free.
posted by aurelian at 4:21 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
* Electric vehicles mean batteries. Which means lithium. Petroleum may have its extraction problems, but lithium isn't problem-free.
posted by aurelian at 4:21 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
My guess is that transport operators aren't going to want to have multiple models of bus if they can possibly avoid it, so providing confidence that the same chassis can run on any route in a transport provider's area (which eases the logistics of fitting buses to routes) is probably a good step towards acceptance of the technology.
You might be surprised. To pick a semi-random example COTA in Columbus has around 340 buses, and if you get very specific about the model -- which some nerds, god bless 'em, do -- there are 23 different models. In particular, they operate with four different lines of engines including two different fuels. Currently, they are all made by the same manufacturer, Gillig, but that is a quirk of timing; they sold the last of their old New Flyers this year and are getting delivery of more New Flyers next year. COTA is a mid-sized operator in the grand scheme; two thirds of US buses are operated by an agency with a fleet of their size or larger, who generally have more complex fleet makeups.
Most agencies are used to operating with a mix of vehicles; some routes have specific demands (tight corners, steep hills), there are capacity reasons and others. (Here in Calgary, there are two classes of drivers in the union depending on the size of the vehicle, so smaller buses are used on less popular routes to save on driver cost, for instance). And -- perhaps most important -- buses don't actually last that long; ten years or so given the continual usage they get, and most agencies don't have enough or flexible enough funding to actually replace all their buses at a single go, so there's always a piecemeal effect.
I'm impressed electric buses have come along so quickly, but when I think about it, it makes a fair bit of sense -- many agencies operate a lot of peak service buses; if they only run for three or four hours during rush hour and then get charged, those only need ~100 km or so of range. And even all day buses only need 300-400 km of range given that they don't go all that fast due to traffic, stopping and schedule recovery time. Plus the benefit of regenerative braking would be huge for buses, who both have a lot of mass and stop very frequently.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:26 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
You might be surprised. To pick a semi-random example COTA in Columbus has around 340 buses, and if you get very specific about the model -- which some nerds, god bless 'em, do -- there are 23 different models. In particular, they operate with four different lines of engines including two different fuels. Currently, they are all made by the same manufacturer, Gillig, but that is a quirk of timing; they sold the last of their old New Flyers this year and are getting delivery of more New Flyers next year. COTA is a mid-sized operator in the grand scheme; two thirds of US buses are operated by an agency with a fleet of their size or larger, who generally have more complex fleet makeups.
Most agencies are used to operating with a mix of vehicles; some routes have specific demands (tight corners, steep hills), there are capacity reasons and others. (Here in Calgary, there are two classes of drivers in the union depending on the size of the vehicle, so smaller buses are used on less popular routes to save on driver cost, for instance). And -- perhaps most important -- buses don't actually last that long; ten years or so given the continual usage they get, and most agencies don't have enough or flexible enough funding to actually replace all their buses at a single go, so there's always a piecemeal effect.
I'm impressed electric buses have come along so quickly, but when I think about it, it makes a fair bit of sense -- many agencies operate a lot of peak service buses; if they only run for three or four hours during rush hour and then get charged, those only need ~100 km or so of range. And even all day buses only need 300-400 km of range given that they don't go all that fast due to traffic, stopping and schedule recovery time. Plus the benefit of regenerative braking would be huge for buses, who both have a lot of mass and stop very frequently.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:26 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
Which means lithium. Petroleum may have its extraction problems, but lithium isn't problem-free.
There isn’t going to be anything we do that is 100% problem-free.
posted by nubs at 4:37 PM on December 13, 2018 [6 favorites]
There isn’t going to be anything we do that is 100% problem-free.
posted by nubs at 4:37 PM on December 13, 2018 [6 favorites]
The Toronto Transit Commission just ordered 10 buses each from BYS, Proterra, and New Flyer. The plan is to buy only emissions-free buses by 2025 so the whole fleet is electric by 2040.
posted by giltay at 4:40 PM on December 13, 2018
posted by giltay at 4:40 PM on December 13, 2018
* 2018 sales of internal combustion passenger vehicles in China (year-on-year):
July: -7%
August: -7%
September: -14%
October: -16%
November: - ~20%
What if passenger ICE sales in the world's largest auto market have already peaked?
* Around 1 out of every 30 cars sold in the US last month had a plug. Sales of ~44,000, up from 17,000 a year go.
* 'It’s the only way forward': Madrid bans polluting vehicles from city centre
* Port Authority of NY & NJ to electrify vehicle and airport bus fleet
* Envision Energy Says EV Battery Cell Costs Will Fall Below $50/kWh By 2025 (CW is that $100/kWh is breakeven cost with ICE vehicles)
* Why Trump Can’t Kill the Electric Car
We're at a tipping point, y'all.
posted by gwint at 5:05 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
July: -7%
August: -7%
September: -14%
October: -16%
November: - ~20%
What if passenger ICE sales in the world's largest auto market have already peaked?
* Around 1 out of every 30 cars sold in the US last month had a plug. Sales of ~44,000, up from 17,000 a year go.
* 'It’s the only way forward': Madrid bans polluting vehicles from city centre
* Port Authority of NY & NJ to electrify vehicle and airport bus fleet
* Envision Energy Says EV Battery Cell Costs Will Fall Below $50/kWh By 2025 (CW is that $100/kWh is breakeven cost with ICE vehicles)
* Why Trump Can’t Kill the Electric Car
We're at a tipping point, y'all.
posted by gwint at 5:05 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
Our infrastructure is heavily weighted towards automobiles. And trucks. The Tesla Semi technology might have a greater environmental impact than an urban bus for us...The US actually ships a comparatively-large portion of freight via rail compared to most other nations. If you've driven on European highways, it's easy to notice that there are substantially more trucks on the road than we have here.
That's not to say that electric trucks aren't a big deal, but I think that we're still many years away from electric vehicles disrupting substantial portions of the trucking industry, regardless of whatever vaporware Mr. Musk happens to be pitching this month.
Electric buses, on the other hand, seem to be working out remarkably well for virtually everybody who's implemented them. It's nuts that we aren't retrofitting every major US city with the necessary infrastructure to support them. It's an investment that would pay for itself.
posted by schmod at 5:15 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
I wonder whether improving battery technology would allow the buses to be charged intermittently throughout the day, so they could have a lighter battery pack and still make it through their route? I'm envisaging overhead chargers along the route, or maybe concealed power contacts at bus stops.
Rather than build expensive new charging infrastructure. Just buy a few more buses. For example, if you have a circular route on which you run 10 buses, just buy one more bus and then you can have every bus stop at a single charger on the route 10% of the time. You have 10 buses running at a time all day.
posted by JackFlash at 6:18 PM on December 13, 2018
Rather than build expensive new charging infrastructure. Just buy a few more buses. For example, if you have a circular route on which you run 10 buses, just buy one more bus and then you can have every bus stop at a single charger on the route 10% of the time. You have 10 buses running at a time all day.
posted by JackFlash at 6:18 PM on December 13, 2018
Petroleum may have its extraction problems, but lithium isn't problem-free.
Production of nothing is "problem-free", but lithium is just about at the bottom of the list for environmental problems compared to just about any other mineral extraction.
Most lithium comes from natural desert salt flats. Salt flats are pretty lifeless (although not entirely) already. And by their very nature, salt flats are hydrologically isolated. Water may occasionally flow in and evaporate but nothing flows out to contaminate the surrounding area.
Compared to petroleum, coal, natural gas, etc the ecological effects of lithium mining are pretty minor.
posted by JackFlash at 6:31 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
Production of nothing is "problem-free", but lithium is just about at the bottom of the list for environmental problems compared to just about any other mineral extraction.
Most lithium comes from natural desert salt flats. Salt flats are pretty lifeless (although not entirely) already. And by their very nature, salt flats are hydrologically isolated. Water may occasionally flow in and evaporate but nothing flows out to contaminate the surrounding area.
Compared to petroleum, coal, natural gas, etc the ecological effects of lithium mining are pretty minor.
posted by JackFlash at 6:31 PM on December 13, 2018 [2 favorites]
I was curious about what sectors use how much energy (and how much petroleum), and found this chart of energy consumption by sector, 1940-2017 [PDF]. Industrial energy consumption is the biggest, followed by transportation, then residential (at a big more than half of industrial consumption), then commercial a bit below that. These are based on (I believe), the "Total Consumption" (rather than "Primary Consumption") values, the difference being whether they count electricty at point of use or point of generation.
Of petroleum alone, transportation is by far the biggest consumer, and also the fastest growing.
If we use the type of product as an indicator for type of use, almost half the petroleum product in the US is "Motor Gasoline". (After a decline in the early 2000s, we are almost back up to highest-water-mark consumption levels. The line is very much pointed in the wrong direction.) Coming in at about half as much as gasoline is "Distillate Fuel Oil", which presumably includes both Diesel Motor Fuel and Home Heating Oil (the difference is largely in the sulfur content; it's a few cents per gallon worth of additional refining). There's a bit less than half as much jet fuel made as distillate fuel oil.
So this suggests that in the US, vehicles burning diesel are probably not the low-hanging fruit, if you are looking for big petroleum-use reductions via reasonably small increases in fleet efficiency. Pushing all the cars on the road up a few MPG (if doing so doesn't cause fuel prices to fall; so the best way to do this is fuel taxes) is still probably the best possible thing. As you can see from looking at the graphs right around 2005-2007, when fuel prices go up, consumption can actually contract pretty rapidly.
But obviously, fuel taxes are pretty unpalatable and are probably a non-starter for the next few years. (Only way I am seeing government-induced upward pressure on fuel prices in the next two years if it's via bombs falling out of the sky on Iran.) So nothing wrong with electric buses, particularly if and when the case can be made that they'll save municipalities money. That's where the big win probably is... if electric buses are inherently more efficient, and that means municipalities can run more buses, then you get cars off the road—which is where your largest petroleum consumption is.
But it's not the "electric" part that matters, it's the "cheaper per mile" part. If you could develop a bus that ran on Residual Fuel Oil, or hell, coal shoveled into the flaming maw of a steam boiler, and it cost less per mile to run and resulted in significantly more buses on the road and fewer cars, that could be a win, maybe more than running the petroleum consumption of the buses themselves down to zero.
posted by Kadin2048 at 6:38 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
Of petroleum alone, transportation is by far the biggest consumer, and also the fastest growing.
If we use the type of product as an indicator for type of use, almost half the petroleum product in the US is "Motor Gasoline". (After a decline in the early 2000s, we are almost back up to highest-water-mark consumption levels. The line is very much pointed in the wrong direction.) Coming in at about half as much as gasoline is "Distillate Fuel Oil", which presumably includes both Diesel Motor Fuel and Home Heating Oil (the difference is largely in the sulfur content; it's a few cents per gallon worth of additional refining). There's a bit less than half as much jet fuel made as distillate fuel oil.
So this suggests that in the US, vehicles burning diesel are probably not the low-hanging fruit, if you are looking for big petroleum-use reductions via reasonably small increases in fleet efficiency. Pushing all the cars on the road up a few MPG (if doing so doesn't cause fuel prices to fall; so the best way to do this is fuel taxes) is still probably the best possible thing. As you can see from looking at the graphs right around 2005-2007, when fuel prices go up, consumption can actually contract pretty rapidly.
But obviously, fuel taxes are pretty unpalatable and are probably a non-starter for the next few years. (Only way I am seeing government-induced upward pressure on fuel prices in the next two years if it's via bombs falling out of the sky on Iran.) So nothing wrong with electric buses, particularly if and when the case can be made that they'll save municipalities money. That's where the big win probably is... if electric buses are inherently more efficient, and that means municipalities can run more buses, then you get cars off the road—which is where your largest petroleum consumption is.
But it's not the "electric" part that matters, it's the "cheaper per mile" part. If you could develop a bus that ran on Residual Fuel Oil, or hell, coal shoveled into the flaming maw of a steam boiler, and it cost less per mile to run and resulted in significantly more buses on the road and fewer cars, that could be a win, maybe more than running the petroleum consumption of the buses themselves down to zero.
posted by Kadin2048 at 6:38 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
Fair enough. Although I was thinking of the miners.
posted by aurelian at 6:45 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by aurelian at 6:45 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
I can see why very cold weather can be a problem for electric buses, but why is hilly terrain a problem? Seeing things like this, I thought electric motors were fine (or even better than diesel/gasoline) on hills...
posted by nnethercote at 7:17 PM on December 13, 2018
posted by nnethercote at 7:17 PM on December 13, 2018
What creates the electricity for the buses, cars, and hopefully soon trucks, ships & planes?
Coal, gas, wind, hydro, solar?
By decreasing petroleum use, what is being increased?
I'd like to see those percentage numbers.
posted by Mesaverdian at 7:18 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
For reference, U.S. electricity generation by source for 2017.
When talking to people informally you could acurately say that roughly 2/3rds of the USA's electricity comes from fossil fuel: 1/3rd natural gas, 1/3rd coal.
Nuclear is 20%, and all renewables put together is 17%.
So I mean, currently in the USA, electric vehicles still run mostly off fossil fuels.
posted by glonous keming at 7:37 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
When talking to people informally you could acurately say that roughly 2/3rds of the USA's electricity comes from fossil fuel: 1/3rd natural gas, 1/3rd coal.
Nuclear is 20%, and all renewables put together is 17%.
So I mean, currently in the USA, electric vehicles still run mostly off fossil fuels.
posted by glonous keming at 7:37 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
The Union of Concerned Scientists has some good maps about EV power sources in the US. The question to ask for a particular region: is driving an EV cleaner than driving an ICE vehicle? From their article about the grid getting cleaner:
posted by Mister Cheese at 8:08 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
Seventy-five percent of people now live in places where driving on electricity is cleaner than a 50 MPG gasoline car. And based on where people have already bought EVs, electric vehicles now have greenhouse gas emissions equal to an 80 MPG car, much lower than any gasoline-only car available.The grid will keep getting cleaner unless we do something very stupid.
posted by Mister Cheese at 8:08 PM on December 13, 2018 [4 favorites]
What creates the electricity for the buses, cars, and hopefully soon trucks, ships & planes?
By decreasing petroleum use, what is being increased?
Let's take the worst case for an electric car charged by a coal plant. Good thermal efficiency for a modern coal plant is about 40%. Efficiency of an electric car is about 60% (including battery charge/discharge and motor losses). So for an electric car, end to end efficiency is about 0.4 * 0.6 = .24 or 24%.
A gasoline engine is only 20% efficient. So even if all your electricity comes from a coal plant, the electric car comes out ahead. If you consider more efficient gas turbine electric generators and a growing proportion of renewables, the electric car is even a better option.
Another way to look at it is user costs. Neither gasoline or electricity are free. Producers provide them at their costs plus profit. A car travels about 10 miles for a dollar of gasoline. An electric car travels about 20 miles on a dollar of electricity -- about twice as far.
posted by JackFlash at 8:18 PM on December 13, 2018 [5 favorites]
By decreasing petroleum use, what is being increased?
Let's take the worst case for an electric car charged by a coal plant. Good thermal efficiency for a modern coal plant is about 40%. Efficiency of an electric car is about 60% (including battery charge/discharge and motor losses). So for an electric car, end to end efficiency is about 0.4 * 0.6 = .24 or 24%.
A gasoline engine is only 20% efficient. So even if all your electricity comes from a coal plant, the electric car comes out ahead. If you consider more efficient gas turbine electric generators and a growing proportion of renewables, the electric car is even a better option.
Another way to look at it is user costs. Neither gasoline or electricity are free. Producers provide them at their costs plus profit. A car travels about 10 miles for a dollar of gasoline. An electric car travels about 20 miles on a dollar of electricity -- about twice as far.
posted by JackFlash at 8:18 PM on December 13, 2018 [5 favorites]
Just to pile on, from another angle: electricity generation is the easiest sector of the economy to reduce emissions in. So the electrification of other sectors -- such as transport -- is a good thing. Electrify everything.
posted by nnethercote at 8:32 PM on December 13, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by nnethercote at 8:32 PM on December 13, 2018 [3 favorites]
glonous keming: So I mean, currently in the USA, electric vehicles still run mostly off fossil fuels.
For a nationwide bus fleet potentially charging anywhere, that averages out to true. But areas with cleaner power can switch to or further embrace electric public transit infrastructure.
Seattle, for instance, has the second-largest trolleybus—that is, buses with electric motors drawing power from overhead wires—fleet in the U.S. And the operator, King County Metro, already runs fully-independent battery buses on a handful of routes apart from the wired trolleybus routes. They've also said they're buying 120 all-electric buses by 2020 and, hopefully after that, will purchase no more buses powered by fossil fuels.
One of the upsides of this is it is finally the thing that is pushing the electric supplier for the Eastside suburbs of Seattle—Puget Sound Energy—to figure out how to put more sustainable fuel into their power generation mix. Right now, PSE's energy mix is sadly heavy on fossil fuels (while Seattle City Light's is over 90% hydroelectric) but between Metro pushing to be carbon neutral and large Eastside employers like Microsoft pushing for power fuel choice capabilities, it's getting PSE off the dime, and that's a great thing.
posted by fireoyster at 8:50 PM on December 13, 2018
For a nationwide bus fleet potentially charging anywhere, that averages out to true. But areas with cleaner power can switch to or further embrace electric public transit infrastructure.
Seattle, for instance, has the second-largest trolleybus—that is, buses with electric motors drawing power from overhead wires—fleet in the U.S. And the operator, King County Metro, already runs fully-independent battery buses on a handful of routes apart from the wired trolleybus routes. They've also said they're buying 120 all-electric buses by 2020 and, hopefully after that, will purchase no more buses powered by fossil fuels.
One of the upsides of this is it is finally the thing that is pushing the electric supplier for the Eastside suburbs of Seattle—Puget Sound Energy—to figure out how to put more sustainable fuel into their power generation mix. Right now, PSE's energy mix is sadly heavy on fossil fuels (while Seattle City Light's is over 90% hydroelectric) but between Metro pushing to be carbon neutral and large Eastside employers like Microsoft pushing for power fuel choice capabilities, it's getting PSE off the dime, and that's a great thing.
posted by fireoyster at 8:50 PM on December 13, 2018
Pretty much half the busses you see in the inner parts of Shanghai are electric or hybrid. Older ones rely on overhead power while newer have huge batteries to cover streets that aren't equipped with lines above as well. I see a lot of this in Beijing now as well coming and of course Shenzhen is leading the pack, as OP correctly stated. But this is also happening in smaller Tier 2&3 cities.
Add to that the massive subway systems being built everywhere and you have one hell of a public transport infrastructure. Shanghai has an amazing subway network and Beijing is pretty stunning as well, albeit still not even close to enough for all the people.
posted by krautland at 9:38 PM on December 13, 2018
Add to that the massive subway systems being built everywhere and you have one hell of a public transport infrastructure. Shanghai has an amazing subway network and Beijing is pretty stunning as well, albeit still not even close to enough for all the people.
posted by krautland at 9:38 PM on December 13, 2018
We're at a tipping point, y'all
Volkswagen, the world’s largest automaker, just announced that they are working on the latest generation of ICEs, due roll out fleetwide in 2026.
They also announced this will be their last generation of ICEs.
posted by notyou at 9:51 PM on December 13, 2018
Volkswagen, the world’s largest automaker, just announced that they are working on the latest generation of ICEs, due roll out fleetwide in 2026.
They also announced this will be their last generation of ICEs.
posted by notyou at 9:51 PM on December 13, 2018
I can see why very cold weather can be a problem for electric buses, but why is hilly terrain a problem?
Increased energy consumption. Current electric buses are very much a compromise between size (and cost) of battery and room for passengers plus frequency of charging. In hilly terrain, the same length of route uses more energy.
The EU is going very hard into electric buses, lots of funds earmarked for them in this budget programming period (2014-2020). They make a lot of sense with clean energy like France or Denmark, but in countries with old coal plants (see location in profile), new diesel buses made to stringent EURO6 emission norms - if the tests weren't cheated - actually emit less CO2 and other pollutants.
Did I mention our idiots-in-charge just got the Worst Country award at the climate change summit we're freaking hosting?
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:58 PM on December 13, 2018
Increased energy consumption. Current electric buses are very much a compromise between size (and cost) of battery and room for passengers plus frequency of charging. In hilly terrain, the same length of route uses more energy.
The EU is going very hard into electric buses, lots of funds earmarked for them in this budget programming period (2014-2020). They make a lot of sense with clean energy like France or Denmark, but in countries with old coal plants (see location in profile), new diesel buses made to stringent EURO6 emission norms - if the tests weren't cheated - actually emit less CO2 and other pollutants.
Did I mention our idiots-in-charge just got the Worst Country award at the climate change summit we're freaking hosting?
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:58 PM on December 13, 2018
(That VW note probably requires a link: here’s one.)
posted by notyou at 10:01 PM on December 13, 2018
posted by notyou at 10:01 PM on December 13, 2018
Volkswagen, the world’s largest automaker, just announced that they are working on the latest generation of ICEs, due roll out fleetwide in 2026.
Yeah, well if Bosch hasn't gotten their shit together and figured out how to make a wiring harness that doesn't dissolve on northeastern salted roads, I'm sticking with my Subaru. And I drove my Passat from new to getting it towed away after 17 years...
posted by mikelieman at 10:08 PM on December 13, 2018
Yeah, well if Bosch hasn't gotten their shit together and figured out how to make a wiring harness that doesn't dissolve on northeastern salted roads, I'm sticking with my Subaru. And I drove my Passat from new to getting it towed away after 17 years...
posted by mikelieman at 10:08 PM on December 13, 2018
I’m hesitant to sing BYD’s praises considering Albuquerque just returned their fleet of BYD-built electric buses after they failed inspections. One of the buses even broke down on its way back to California.
posted by joedan at 11:30 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by joedan at 11:30 PM on December 13, 2018 [1 favorite]
Electric buses are effectively go-anywhere trams ("trolleys"). I wonder whether improving battery technology would allow the buses to be charged intermittently throughout the day, so they could have a lighter battery pack and still make it through their route?
They're talking about this very thing; top-up charging at bus stops, with longer charges at route termini and the depot.
Battery technology improvements, meanwhile, are making an impact on many types of transports. They're now talking about electrifying rural railway lines without continuous catenary, by having trains with batteries and charging stations at stops, which will make replacing diesels a lot more economically viable. And they're starting to talk about electrically powered passenger air transport (which would be further away, as batteries that can compete with A1 jet fuel in energy/weight ratio are still a long way from reality).
posted by acb at 1:56 AM on December 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
They're talking about this very thing; top-up charging at bus stops, with longer charges at route termini and the depot.
Battery technology improvements, meanwhile, are making an impact on many types of transports. They're now talking about electrifying rural railway lines without continuous catenary, by having trains with batteries and charging stations at stops, which will make replacing diesels a lot more economically viable. And they're starting to talk about electrically powered passenger air transport (which would be further away, as batteries that can compete with A1 jet fuel in energy/weight ratio are still a long way from reality).
posted by acb at 1:56 AM on December 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
Buses seem like a perfect case for electrification. There are some here that are powered by overhead wires, though they tend to come loose and the poor driver has to poke around with a stick to get them reconnected while angry drivers honk and yell. Battery power should be much better, assuming they aren't lemons like Albuquerque is alleging. Until ranges get longer, I suspect cities will operate mixed fleets, electric for the shorter/more urban routes, and diesel for the long haul express buses that run way out to the suburbs.
I rode in a fully electric car for the first time the other week, and the surprise (which shouldn't have been a surprise) was how totally normal it was, exactly like any other semi-upscale automobile but with a hint of electric motor whine instead of engine noise. If my driving was entirely urban, or if I had the space to park a second car, I'd buy one today.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:31 AM on December 14, 2018
I rode in a fully electric car for the first time the other week, and the surprise (which shouldn't have been a surprise) was how totally normal it was, exactly like any other semi-upscale automobile but with a hint of electric motor whine instead of engine noise. If my driving was entirely urban, or if I had the space to park a second car, I'd buy one today.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:31 AM on December 14, 2018
Dip Flash: Buses seem like a perfect case for electrification.
Volvo and others are looking beyond those "ideal" cases to more heavy freight-type trucks: Volvo’s coming all-electric semi will compete with Tesla’s -- Volvo is targeting regional-haul operations in California. (Megan Geuss for Ars Technica, Dec. 13, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:26 AM on December 14, 2018 [4 favorites]
Volvo and others are looking beyond those "ideal" cases to more heavy freight-type trucks: Volvo’s coming all-electric semi will compete with Tesla’s -- Volvo is targeting regional-haul operations in California. (Megan Geuss for Ars Technica, Dec. 13, 2018)
On Wednesday, Volvo Trucks North America announced that in 2019 it will demonstrate an all-electric Volvo semi truck, which it expects to go into production in 2020.Check the slideshow, or click here to see "Possibly the slickest-looking vanity photo of a garbage truck that you'll ever see." Seriously, this is some gritty, urban Bladerunner or 1980s throwback pink and blue neon on a rainy street photography ... for a garbage truck.
The semi will be an all-electric VNR, similar to Volvo's current diesel VNR model, and it will be used for regional-haul operations as well as drayage (that is, transporting shipping containers from barges to their next mode of transport).
Volvo has announced two other electric vehicles in the past: the Volvo FL Electric, which is a smaller "urban transport" truck, as well as the recently announced Volvo FE, an all-electric garbage truck. The VNR will be built using the same motor and battery system as the Volvo FE. In its press release, Volvo stressed its company-wide electric capabilities, saying that its sister company, Volvo Buses, "has sold more than 4,000 electrified buses since 2010."
posted by filthy light thief at 7:26 AM on December 14, 2018 [4 favorites]
I swear I’m not a shill for VW:
VW’s under $30k electric hatchback spotted in the wild (wearing funny paint).
(If you’re interested in this stuff, Electrek is a nice add to your feed reader. So is Green Car Congress.)
posted by notyou at 7:53 AM on December 14, 2018 [3 favorites]
VW’s under $30k electric hatchback spotted in the wild (wearing funny paint).
(If you’re interested in this stuff, Electrek is a nice add to your feed reader. So is Green Car Congress.)
posted by notyou at 7:53 AM on December 14, 2018 [3 favorites]
Yes, Electrek's pretty good, but it's sometimes worth keeping in mind that they were founded by a mod from /r/teslamotors, so they can be a bit partial in their coverage. I also like insideevs.com; their monthly sales charts are kinda interesting.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 8:12 AM on December 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 8:12 AM on December 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
so they can be a bit partial in their coverage
That’s an extremely charitable characterization. “Thy will be done” is more how they treat Musk. Everything, including the reintroduction of slavery, is on the table in their eyes when it comes to enabling Musk to fulfill his mission.
posted by sideshow at 9:03 AM on December 14, 2018
That’s an extremely charitable characterization. “Thy will be done” is more how they treat Musk. Everything, including the reintroduction of slavery, is on the table in their eyes when it comes to enabling Musk to fulfill his mission.
posted by sideshow at 9:03 AM on December 14, 2018
Yes. Slashdot mentioned a link with commercial electric aircraft that is supposedly happening now.
[snip]
Alongside its 650 mile range, the pressurised $3 million-plus Alice can
carry nine passengers and two crew, and cruise at 276 mph -- up there with
the speed of the turboprops that are widely used in the commuter role, if
not anywhere near that of jets. But crucially, says Eviation chief executive
Omer Bar-Yohay, "operating costs will be just 7 to 9 cents per seat per
mile," or about $200 an hour for the whole aircraft, against about $1,000
for turboprop rivals.
posted by aleph at 11:53 AM on December 14, 2018 [2 favorites]
[snip]
Alongside its 650 mile range, the pressurised $3 million-plus Alice can
carry nine passengers and two crew, and cruise at 276 mph -- up there with
the speed of the turboprops that are widely used in the commuter role, if
not anywhere near that of jets. But crucially, says Eviation chief executive
Omer Bar-Yohay, "operating costs will be just 7 to 9 cents per seat per
mile," or about $200 an hour for the whole aircraft, against about $1,000
for turboprop rivals.
posted by aleph at 11:53 AM on December 14, 2018 [2 favorites]
I gotta see real numbers before I believe that electric airplane. The problem is energy per pound. Gasoline packs 50 times the energy per pound than the best lithium batteries today. Even considering the lower thermal efficiency of a turbine engine, you need at least 20 times the weight of batteries compared to gasoline to fly the same distance.
A 10-passenger King Air uses about 1000 pounds of fuel to fly 650 miles, conservatively. That means the equivalent battery airplane would need roughly 20 times that or 20,000 pounds of batteries to fly 650 miles. Add 10,000 pounds for the weight of the aircraft and you are up to 30,000 pounds. The maximum takeoff weight of a King Air is 15,000 pounds. For an electric airplane, just the batteries alone would be well above the allowable takeoff weight.
Unless they have some unknown miracle battery technology, I don't see how this works.
posted by JackFlash at 12:44 PM on December 14, 2018 [2 favorites]
A 10-passenger King Air uses about 1000 pounds of fuel to fly 650 miles, conservatively. That means the equivalent battery airplane would need roughly 20 times that or 20,000 pounds of batteries to fly 650 miles. Add 10,000 pounds for the weight of the aircraft and you are up to 30,000 pounds. The maximum takeoff weight of a King Air is 15,000 pounds. For an electric airplane, just the batteries alone would be well above the allowable takeoff weight.
Unless they have some unknown miracle battery technology, I don't see how this works.
posted by JackFlash at 12:44 PM on December 14, 2018 [2 favorites]
Could they do day time flights above the clouds and get a solar boost?
posted by notreally at 1:17 PM on December 14, 2018
posted by notreally at 1:17 PM on December 14, 2018
Solar might power the radio.
posted by artdrectr at 3:02 PM on December 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by artdrectr at 3:02 PM on December 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
Solar powered aircraft are not practical with current PV technology for passenger or freight aircraft; there's just not enough power coming from the panels, even if the entire aircraft is covered, to keep the thing in the air without having wings so large that it couldn't easily land at most airports.
However, there are some very good cases for PV aircraft for sensor platforms and the like. Here's one example of an unmanned solar-powered aircraft that achieved a 40+ hour flight time, running on panels during the day and charging batteries which kept it aloft at night.
Basically it's a step towards the "unlimited duration flight" that has been a goal since the beginning of the atomic age (when people thought it would be achievable with nuclear reactors, which is true and entirely possible, but raises... problems). Once you get to that point, they become a viable replacement for satellites both for military but more interestingly for civilian uses.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:31 AM on December 17, 2018
However, there are some very good cases for PV aircraft for sensor platforms and the like. Here's one example of an unmanned solar-powered aircraft that achieved a 40+ hour flight time, running on panels during the day and charging batteries which kept it aloft at night.
Basically it's a step towards the "unlimited duration flight" that has been a goal since the beginning of the atomic age (when people thought it would be achievable with nuclear reactors, which is true and entirely possible, but raises... problems). Once you get to that point, they become a viable replacement for satellites both for military but more interestingly for civilian uses.
posted by Kadin2048 at 10:31 AM on December 17, 2018
California transit agencies have 21 years to build zero-emissions bus fleets -- Buying gas or diesel buses after 2029 will be prohibited in the state. (Megan Geuss for Ars Technica, Dec. 16, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:21 AM on December 18, 2018 [1 favorite]
California's Air Resources Board (CARB) unanimously approved a regulation last Friday that would compel the state's public transit agencies to build zero-emissions fleets by 2040. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the regulation would also prohibit transit agencies from investing in diesel- or gas-powered buses after 2029. Buses usually last about 12 years before they need to be replaced, the Chronicle noted.California once again leads the way in the US. Good on you, CA!
In a press release on Friday, CARB noted that the transportation sector contributes 40 percent of the state's greenhouse gas emissions, and 80 to 90 percent of the state's smog-creating pollutants. "Full implementation of the regulation adopted today is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 19 million metric tons from 2020 to 2050—the equivalent of taking 4 million cars off the road," CARB wrote.
Battery-electric and fuel cell buses are two potential avenues for investment, CARB noted. The air resources board added that roughly 12,000 gas- or diesel-burning buses are on California's roads today, but only 153 zero-emissions buses operate in California. Based on orders placed by transit agencies, about a thousand such buses are expected to be in service by 2020.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:21 AM on December 18, 2018 [1 favorite]
Solar powered aircraft are not practical with current PV technology for passenger or freight aircraft
I've wondered about using solar technology on heavier-than-air craft since I was a kid (although my thoughts then were directed at balloons directly heated by solar radiation). I haven't done any calculations on this, but maybe a large insulated airship could use solar-powered engines to propel itself and solar-powered heat pumps to stay aloft indefinitely.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:52 PM on December 18, 2018
I've wondered about using solar technology on heavier-than-air craft since I was a kid (although my thoughts then were directed at balloons directly heated by solar radiation). I haven't done any calculations on this, but maybe a large insulated airship could use solar-powered engines to propel itself and solar-powered heat pumps to stay aloft indefinitely.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:52 PM on December 18, 2018
A solar powered airship, where you're just using the PV cells for propulsion and not for lift, seems totally possible. I think there are small toy ones that use solar panels in place of batteries actually.
Allegedly the Chinese are working on one, but I'm not sure what that really means and none of the articles about it have anything other than vaguely steampunk-y renderings.
The perennial problem with airships is that to carry any significant load they need to be really big (unless you fill them with hydrogen, in which case they can be smaller, but that has, uhm, tradeoffs), which means they have a big cross-section and get blown around. That combined with a lightweight airframe makes them somewhat dangerous in rough weather. I think all the US Navy's airships eventually perished due to weather.
But weather prediction in the 1930s was pretty primitive compared to today; it might be entirely possible for a modern airship to basically just outrun and avoid bad weather, if the flight plans were flexible enough. Even hurricanes typically don't move at more than 35MPH or so.
Too bad we're running out of helium, though.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:43 PM on December 20, 2018
Allegedly the Chinese are working on one, but I'm not sure what that really means and none of the articles about it have anything other than vaguely steampunk-y renderings.
The perennial problem with airships is that to carry any significant load they need to be really big (unless you fill them with hydrogen, in which case they can be smaller, but that has, uhm, tradeoffs), which means they have a big cross-section and get blown around. That combined with a lightweight airframe makes them somewhat dangerous in rough weather. I think all the US Navy's airships eventually perished due to weather.
But weather prediction in the 1930s was pretty primitive compared to today; it might be entirely possible for a modern airship to basically just outrun and avoid bad weather, if the flight plans were flexible enough. Even hurricanes typically don't move at more than 35MPH or so.
Too bad we're running out of helium, though.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:43 PM on December 20, 2018
Around 19min into this piece by Singapore's ChannelNewsAsia, a look at Shenzhen's all-electric bus fleet: The Year Ahead 2019: East Asia (video, direct .m3u8 link)
posted by XMLicious at 10:53 AM on January 1, 2019
posted by XMLicious at 10:53 AM on January 1, 2019
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