"We need wall"
December 20, 2018 3:08 PM Subscribe

Did you want a quiet week? Events in US politics are occurring at an impossible to comprehend pace. Today, the President announced that Secretary of Defense Mattis will be "retiring" at the end of February. The Secretary's resignation letter cites differences of opinion with the President on "treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors." The President announced he will not sign any government spending bill that does not include funding for a border wall (WaPo), leaving the government headed toward a partial shutdown. New work requirements could take food stamps away from 750,000 people (Vox). A new policy will require asylum-seekers to be turned away and wait in Mexico (Vox) as they wait months or years for their applications to be processed. Ethics scandals around the Mueller investigation developed for both the acting (WaPo) and prospective (WSJ) Attorneys General.

• The President announced the immediate withdrawal of US forces from Syria (Washington Post) via Twitter, startling aides and allies as it upended plans announced as recently this week to continue to maintain a military presence in formerly ISIS-controlled territory. The decision provides no information on the fate of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces and the US's Kurdish allies in the region. The decision does not appear to have gone through the standard interagency review process, and promptly led to U.S. officials trying to slow Trump’s ‘everybody out’ of Syria Order (Daily Beast). The White House is referring questions to DOD, which is in turn referring questions to the White House. “Whether do we need the presence of the American military, I guess we do not need that presence,” Vladimir Putin happily agreed. But that's not all: the White House has also reportedly ordered the Pentagon to prepare plans to withdraw troops from Afghanistan (NBC).

• The President on Thursday announced his refusal to sign any spending bill that does not contain money for a border wall, leading large portions of the government headed toward a shutdown on Saturday. The House GOP will seek to force through a new bill with $5B in wall funding, but it's unclear whether this even has enough support to pass the lame duck House, let alone the Senate. Republican Senators were unamused as they headed to the airport: 'Are you ruining my life?': Republican senators in disbelief over Trump shutdown threat

• Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn requested to delay his sentencing after Judge Sullivan lambasted the defendant, threatening prison time: "I’m not hiding my disgust, my disdain, for this criminal offense." The White House, confusingly, continued to stand by Flynn: Trump Thinks Flynn Is No Snitch Despite All His Snitching (Daily Beast). Emptywheel: In Defense of Emmet Sullivan: Van Grack Suggested Mueller Did Review Whether Flynn’s Behavior Amounted to Treason

• The Treasury Department announced its intention to lift sanctions on Oleg Deripaska's companies after he stated plans to sell portions of his ownership to the suspicious VTB Bank and Glencore, both entities linked to the Russia investigation, following a substantial lobbying effort by the oligarch. Deripaska (and Trump) also got himself reinvited to the World Economic Forum in Davos. The move comes as Treasury announces the imposition of sanctions targeting Russians involved in election interference and hacking the World Anti-Doping Agency, including the USA Really propaganda operation.

• WaPo: Ethics officials said Whitaker should recuse from the Mueller probe, but his advisers told him not to, officials say. Whitaker will now be briefed on Mueller's investigation going forward, despite the advice of DOJ ethics officials. WSJ: Trump’s Attorney General Pick Criticized an Aspect of Mueller Probe in Memo to Justice Department. Bill Barr also gave his memo opining the special counsel's obstruction of justice inquiry is “fatally misconceived” to a top White House lawyer.

• House Speaker Paul Ryan gave his farewell address. MSNBC's Chris Hayes describes how Ryan has "built an entire career around what has been for Republicans a very successful con." Vox's Tara Golshan summarizes Ryan's relationship to Trump's nationalism Paul Ryan wants you to know he has identified what’s wrong with the Republican Party, and "the problem with politics today, according to Paul Ryan, has nothing to do with Paul Ryan." Slate's Jim Newell tells the story of how House Republicans Got Away With It—Again: "Roughly five seconds after Nancy Pelosi takes the gavel on Jan. 3, House Republicans, as if struck by epiphany, will turn to each other and say, Good GOD, have you noticed the debt?!" HuffPost rips into Ryan's entire project with Matt Fuller and Arthur Delaney's And What Can You Say About Paul Ryan?: "Ryan is the man who, perhaps more than anybody else, normalized Trump, who led reluctant Republicans back to Trump, who went along with the president even when he knew he shouldn’t and traded his dignity for a tax cut."

• BuzzFeed: A Judge Strikes Down Sessions' Decision Limiting Violence-Related Asylum Claims. Judge Emmet Sullivan, who appeared as a special guest star on Tuesday in the role as Michael Flynn's judge, is back on Wednesday ruling against most of former AG Sessions' June order making it more difficult for people to claim asylum. "US District Judge Emmet Sullivan struck down parts of the June decision from Sessions that Sullivan found violated federal law, and ordered the federal government to return to the US the plaintiffs who had been deported because of Sessions' decision." Judge Sullivan found that Sessions' order was "fundamentally inconsistent" with the credible fear standard set by Congress. And now Vox reports Trump is officially turning back all asylum seekers who come to the US through Mexico.

• Buzzfeed: Hundreds of Detained Migrant Children Will Be Released By Christmas After the Trump Administration Relents On Background Checks. "The administration had required background checks for everyone in a household before a child could be released to it, but the administration acknowledged Tuesday that the additional checks were unnecessary." However, experts caution that [sponsors will still have to submit fingerprints](https://twitter.com/DLind/status/1075127930999726080), and the administration makes no promise they won't continue to be used by ICE, which will still deter families from coming forward. See also the AP's in-depth investigation: Where Have All the Children Gone? "As the year draws to a close, some 5,400 detained migrant children in the U.S. are sleeping in shelters with more than 1,000 other children. Some 9,800 are in facilities with 100-plus total kids, according to confidential government data obtained and cross-checked by The Associated Press."

• Talking Points Memo's annual corruption awards' nominees have been named in the following categories: Best Scandal — General Interest; Best Scandal — Local Venue; Meritorious Achievement In The Crazy; Best Conspiracy Theory; Best Campaign Gaffe; Literary Achievement In 280 Characters; and Outstanding Ineptitude In the Cabinet.

IN OTHER HEADLINES:

• CNN: Trump Signed Letter of Intent For Trump Tower Moscow Project Despite Giuliani Insisting He Didn't. (Giuliani later admitted to the NY Daily News that Trump signed a 'bullshit' letter of intent.)

• CNN: What 2018 Looked Like for the Mueller Investigation A month-by-month timeline, tracking the major developments and the number of defendants charged, convicted at trial, pleaded guilty, and sentenced to prison. See also Mother Jones's David Corn: Remember the Big Story in the Russia Scandal: Donald Trump Betrayed America—In the flurry of new developments—and disinformation—it’s easy to lose sight of this essential and proven fact.

• Mother Jones: Every Insane Thing Donald Trump Has Said About Global Warming Fun fact: "Trump and three of his children signed a 2009 letter to President Barack Obama calling for a global climate deal" (before changing his mind completely a few months later).

• NYT (tempting Betteridge's Law of Headlines): Trump Still Makes Money From His Properties. Is This Constitutional? An interactive guide to Trump's conflicts of interest and potential emoluments clause violations.

• NYT: Trump Foundation Will Dissolve, Accused of ‘Shocking Pattern of Illegality’; CNN: Think the Trump Foundation case is over? Think again.

• Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse writing for Crooked Media: Stop Losing: A Senator’s Battle Plan for Beating the Right

• GQ's Zach Baron: The Fresno Bee and the War on Local News, featuring Rep. Devin Nunes.

• Opinion: It Is So Much Worse Than I Thought How Can a Family that Can't Run a Charity Run a Country? (Charles M. Blow, NYTimes)

• Clickhole, a satirical publication, sums up what reading the news feels like these days: Legal Bombshell: Mueller Flipped Trump’s Confidant’s Lawyer’s Friend’s Associate Gorpman (Who Could Testify Against Bleemer!) And It’s Not Even Lunchtime

Today is the 670th day of the Trump administration. There are 683 days left until the 2020 elections.

Keeping Track: The Weekly List (Amy Siskind); What The Fuck Just Happened Today?; The Weekly Sift; The “Everything Terrible The Trump Administration Has Done So Far” Omnibus; Perjury Chart: Trump Associates’ Lies, False, or Misleading Statements on Russia to Federal Authorities (Just Security)

Previously in U.S. Politics Megathreads: "Very legal & very cool"—Individual 1

Megathread-Adjacent Posts and Sites: • Let's Get to Work (New Green Deal) • Bring Democracy To America (John D. Dingell, The Atlantic) • Spike in hate crimes for the third straight year. • George H. W. Bush obituary thread • How a serial sex abuser got an extraordinary deal (Trump friend Jeffrey Epstein) • Truth Sandwiches (George Lakoff, framing, etc.) • OnceUponATime's Active Measures site • Chrysostom's 2018 Election Ratings & Results Tracker

Elsewhere in MetaFilter: On MeTa, what Mefites are doing to improve things; and on AskMe, nonpolitical volunteering from home.

As always, please consider MeFi chat and the unofficial PoliticsFilter Slack for hot-takes and live-blogging breaking news, the new MetaTalk venting thread for catharsis and sympathizing, and funding the site if you're able. Also, for the sake of the ever-helpful mods, please keep in mind the MetaTalk on expectations about U.S. political discussion on MetaFilter. Thanks to Doktor Zed and Box for helping to create this thread. U.S. Politics FPPs are generally collaborative, and a draft post can be found on the MeFi Wiki.

posted by zachlipton (2314 comments total) 131 users marked this as a favorite

Congratulations to Chuck Hagel on one of the shortest tenures as Sec. of Defense. Another terrible appointee by Obama.

-- @realdonaldtrump, Nov. 24, 2014

Hagel lasted 721 days.
Mattis lasted 700 days.
posted by Rhaomi at 3:13 PM on December 20, 2018 [101 favorites]

I can't even. I'm waiting to hear if I'm on shut-down or not, possibly losing 2 months of work, and listening to Mattis's resignation letter. This is chaos.
posted by acrasis at 3:13 PM on December 20, 2018 [47 favorites]

Yeah, the guidance we’ve received so far at USDA is, to be kind, nonsensical.
posted by wintermind at 3:18 PM on December 20, 2018 [17 favorites]

Chris Hayes: It's gonna be Trump, Miller, Mulvaney, Jared and Ivanka roaming around a big empty White House like The Shining before this all over.

No work and all TV make Donny something something.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 3:20 PM on December 20, 2018 [91 favorites]

My goodness, these posts get more and more monumental. How is anyone supposed to get through them?
;-)
Kidding, I love you.
posted by mumimor at 3:21 PM on December 20, 2018 [13 favorites]

Also, re:the shutdown threat, I'd love for any parliamentary experts to comment on the feasibility of outgoing House Republican moderates joining with Democrats on a discharge petition to get around Ryan and bring a clean continuing resolution to the floor.

I'm no parliamentary expert, but they tried something like that earlier today after Pelosi introduced a privileged resolution for a wall-free CR. It was voted down, at least among those who showed up to vote.

It's looking like the House will vote for a spending bill that contains the wall funding (if McCarthy gets off Fox News and shows up to vote). The Senate has already skedaddled and wants nothing to do with this, and surely does not have 60 votes for $5 billion worth of wall funding (there's the alarming theoretical possibility they go nuclear over this, but it's really hard to imagine they have 50 votes and the will to do that either). Assuming the House passes this tonight, that makes a shutdown a whole lot more likely, and it's not even clear how many Senators will even show to work tomorrow.
posted by zachlipton at 3:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

Busy day and a shiny new thread; let's try and keep it functional as long as we can.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [25 favorites]

I miss the quiet of late Decembers past when the news hole was filled with Best of lists and updates on Santa's last known position.
posted by notyou at 3:27 PM on December 20, 2018 [115 favorites]

Trump, last March: "So many people have been leaving the White House. It’s actually been really exciting and invigorating. I like turnover. I like chaos. It really is good."

Politico's Dan Diamond racks up a list of major departures from the Trump administration:

In less than two years, Trump has gone through

— Three chiefs of staff
— Three national security advisors
— Two Secretaries of State
— Two DHS secretaries
— Two HHS secretaries
— Two VA secretaries

With Attorney General, UN ambassador, Interior, Defense vacancies now to fill

George Conway, on Mattis's resignation letter: "Not a word of praise for Trump. Speaks volumes."

TNR's Jeet Heer: Everything to date has been the calm before storm. Things are going to get really crazy and strange now.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:31 PM on December 20, 2018 [79 favorites]

I will believe that House Republican moderates will do something productive about this on the day that they first do ANYTHING productive.
posted by delfin at 3:32 PM on December 20, 2018 [9 favorites]

Didn't Mattis send troops to the border to "stop the migrant caravan" a little while ago? And wasn't Mattis a government executive (a Cabinet member) as kids were being detained by the American government and separated from their parents? And wasn't he in charge of planning a possible nuclear war against North Korea?

Great public image, but I hope to God neither of my sons turns out like he did.
posted by JamesBay at 3:33 PM on December 20, 2018 [52 favorites]

I am super leery of conspiracy thinking and generally inclined to point out most things have mundane causes. Probably half the crazy things going on in the last week or two are themselves just the natural results of a corrupt and incompetent administration. But in total this all feels like a whole lot of crazy to be happening all at once, particularly timed to a point of the year when lots of people roam off onto vacations and long weekends.

Every time I see the other shoe drop I'm more certain there's another other shoe still coming and it's bigger than the last.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:33 PM on December 20, 2018 [9 favorites]

I am basically in shock and afraid right now of who might be appointed as SecDef. There are no adults right now to put any kind of brakes on anywhere, and I find I am shockingly unprepared to handle a US governed entirely by skin suits full of bees.
posted by corb at 3:37 PM on December 20, 2018 [108 favorites]

Thanks zachlipton, Doktor Zed, and Box for this shiny new thread. I plan to take a hiatus from the megathreads for at least the month of January, so this will be my last one for a bit. I want to recommend the all-women-hosted Mueller, She Wrote podcast for anyone who, like me, eventually lost their attraction to Pod Save America as well as those who love PSA. Mueller, She Wrote includes a fantasy indictment draft! Apologies if this has been posted before; I did not a search and did not see it.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:42 PM on December 20, 2018 [36 favorites]

When in doubt, when faced with a Trump vacancy, expect Mick Mulvaney.

Though there are so many other tempting choices... John Bolton! Stephen Miller! Ted Nugent! Judge Jeanine! Can Diamond and Silk split the job fifty-fifty?
posted by delfin at 3:43 PM on December 20, 2018 [9 favorites]

is today just nuts has something to do with it being his 700th day in office?
posted by numaner at 3:43 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

HuffPost, Democrat Tapped For Climate Panel Channels Exxon In Critique Of Green New Deal Plan: Rep. Kathy Castor’s appointment effectively ends the high-profile push for a Green New Deal select committee.

The Democratic lawmaker tapped to lead a revived House of Representatives panel on climate change dismissed calls to bar members who accept money from fossil fuel companies from serving on the committee, arguing it would violate free speech rights.

In an interview with E&E News, Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) confirmed incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked her to chair a long-defunct select committee on global warming. Despite weeks of protests demanding Democrats focus efforts on drafting a Green New Deal, the sort of sweeping economic policy scientists say matches the scale of the climate crisis, Castor said the plan was “not going to be our sole focus.”

She then suggested that barring members who have accepted donations from the oil, gas and coal industries from serving on the committee could be unconstitutional. “I don’t think you can do that under the First Amendment, really,” she said.
...
In an interview with HuffPost on Thursday evening, Castor walked back her earlier statement, calling it an “inartful answer.” But she said she did not know whether, as chairperson, she could bar members on the committee from serving if they accepted fossil fuel donations.
...
The restoration of the select committee on climate change puts an end to a month-long effort to replace it with a panel focused specifically on crafting a Green New Deal, an umbrella term for a suite of policies that would include shifting the United States to 100 percent renewable energy over the next decade and guaranteeing high-wage, federally backed jobs to workers in outmoded industries.
...
Castor said the select committee she agreed to chair would likely have subpoena power, but not legislative power. She said she did not know yet which individuals or companies she would use that power to investigate.

posted by zachlipton at 3:44 PM on December 20, 2018 [10 favorites]

Also in today's news, Buzzfeed's Zoe Tillman reports: Former Senate Intelligence Committee Staffer James Wolfe Will Serve Two Months In Prison For Lying to the FBI—Wolfe pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his communications with reporters while he was head of security for the Senate Intelligence Committee.

On Twitter, she adds: "Meanwhile, in another court: The 4th Circuit has agreed to put the emoluments clause case filed by DC and MD against Trump on hold while they take up the government's appeal. Arguments are set for the week of March 19. This puts the entire case on hold while the 4th Circuit considers it. That means the Trump Org and federal agencies won't have to comply with the subpoenas just yet. "
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:44 PM on December 20, 2018 [11 favorites]

Yeah, the guidance we’ve received so far at USDA is, to be kind, nonsensical.

Sooooo new regs re: work requirements + government shutdown = ??????

I remember the last time the government shut down and I worked at a state agency that administered USDA programs. USDA's entire website shut down, leaving us without any access to specific USDA guidance and policy.

Oh, and when the website came back? Everything had changed and all of our links to their site were broken. It was GREAT. I'm so excited for it to happen again! /s
posted by elsietheeel at 3:46 PM on December 20, 2018 [13 favorites]

"“I don’t think you can do that under the First Amendment, really,”

It is a bit complicated, because donations from employees of oil and gas companies get reported as coming from those industries, but there's no reason to necessarily believe that everyone who works for such a company shares the views or incentives of their management. I dunno about you guys, but I personally choose not to donate to my company's corporate PAC for that very reason. But money I have given to Democratic candidates this cycle -- including some I have strong reason to believe my company doesn't like -- probably shows up as being "from the military industrial complex" on those charts.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:49 PM on December 20, 2018 [18 favorites]

[Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)] tells federal employees who won’t get paid during shutdown: You signed up for this (Colby Itkowitz and Mike DeBonis, WaPo)

Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.), who decided not to seek re-election this year and has been increasingly critical of Trump, blasted Meadow’s comments in a tweet:

Great way to recruit highly-qualified people to serve in gvt rather than higher pay in private sector. Not only will u make less, boys & girls, but your paychecks will always be subject to kamikaze political stunts in order to avoid attacks from Rush & Hannity. Awesome. https://t.co/cIUZ3iP6DE
— Ryan Costello (@RyanCostello) December 20, 2018

posted by ZeusHumms at 3:51 PM on December 20, 2018 [74 favorites]

Didn't Mattis send troops to the border to "stop the migrant caravan" a little while ago? And wasn't Mattis a government executive (a Cabinet member) as kids were being detained by the American government and separated from their parents? And wasn't he in charge of planning a possible nuclear war against North Korea?

Yes to all of this. I don't know why the fantasy of Good Guy Mattis persists.
posted by poffin boffin at 3:52 PM on December 20, 2018 [55 favorites]

There’s no plan, just a guy that will say anything to get through the next 10 minutes. Syria? Pull the troops out, who cares, we’re not building a Trump Tower Damascus. Shutdown? Fine, shut it down, I told people there’d be a wall, so I want a wall, and the government doesn’t do anything, anyway. Mattis? Never liked the guy, hardly knew him, kind of a Democrat. See you guys at Mar-a-Lago.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 3:56 PM on December 20, 2018 [29 favorites]

Yes to all of this. I don't know why the fantasy of Good Guy Mattis persists.

I think so some of us don't go entirely mad we have to believe that regardless of all evidence to the contrary there is someone between Trump and Nukes that isn't a complete idiot. But yeah. He's not a good person, and may god have mercy on all of us.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 3:58 PM on December 20, 2018 [21 favorites]

Sarah Kendzior retweeted this from investigative journalist Olga Lautman:

Why is Trump hurrying so quick to deliver for Putin?
In a matter of 72 hrs
-Russian base in Venezuela
-Deripaska companies sanctions lifted
-Mattis pushed out
-Troops being pulled from Syria
-Troops possibly being pulled from Afghanistan

And, uh, when you put it like that, it all seems pretty concerning. Personally, I had the uncomfortable thought that: if troops are being pulled from Syria, and if troops end up being pulled from Afghanistan...where are they headed next? Is someone going to decide they're needed elsewhere? What's the next war, and who does it profit?
posted by yasaman at 4:02 PM on December 20, 2018 [93 favorites]

look, I grew up on Star Wars and Final Fantasy IV. I'm never not going to hope that the comparatively less-bad guy shanks the really really bad guy at a dramatically opportune moment.

the fulfilment of my fantasy has turned out to be a resignation letter from which one can easily read some thrown shade between the lines. it's not much, but my expectations were low.
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:03 PM on December 20, 2018 [47 favorites]

Every time I see the other shoe drop I'm more certain there's another other shoe still coming and it's bigger than the last.

People on Capitol Hill and in the media are rattled…

CBS's Rebecca Kaplan "“President Trump is plunging the country into chaos,” Schumer says. Both he and Pelosi mention nosedive in the stock market today."

Sen. Chris Murphy: "A Secretary of Defense quitting over a public disagreement with a President whose foreign policy he believes has gone off the rails is a national security crisis. No way around it."

WaPo's Seung Min Kim: "House leaders did NOT get a heads up about Mattis departure, according to a GOP leadership aide"

Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX): "I slept better at night knowing that General Mattis was protecting our nation, our allies, and our brave men and women in uniform – many of whom I’ve worked with in the trenches. This is bad news for the nation and the security of the world."

CNN's Jim Acosta: A House GOP member to CNN on Mattis departure: "The wheels may be coming off."

MSNBC's Chris Hayes: "The wheels are coming off the bus, except they've been coming off the bus for almost two years and the bus is still just grinding along the pavement propelled by the inertial force of Republicans not caring."
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:03 PM on December 20, 2018 [127 favorites]

if troops are being pulled from Syria, and if troops end up being pulled from Afghanistan...where are they headed next? Is someone going to decide they're needed elsewhere? What's the next war, and who does it profit?

It's either going to be Iran or somewhere other than Iran and my bet's on the former.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:06 PM on December 20, 2018 [13 favorites]

It's either going to be Iran or somewhere other than Iran and my bet's on the former.

Or the border.
posted by supercrayon at 4:09 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

Or both. :/
posted by sexyrobot at 4:10 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

The Secretary of Defense resigning over a hair-brained* scheme to save the presidency by suddenly declaring war on Iran sounds all too plausible, especially if said president had a Mueller posed to drop truth any minute.

* Yes, hair.
posted by Celsius1414 at 4:14 PM on December 20, 2018 [24 favorites]

I understand the "Mattis isn't a good guy!" position but I think it misses the point. This is the first high level person to resign in protest; everyone else was forced out. And Mattis has the most stature and respect of anyone in an unelected position in the government (whether you believe he deserves it or not).

Everyone has been saying "why don't these people resign!" Well, here it is. Should he have done so sooner? Maybe so, but that doesn't make this any less of an important action both symbolically and practically. Mattis doesn't have to be the second coming of Smedley Butler for that to be true.
posted by Justinian at 4:17 PM on December 20, 2018 [135 favorites]

~if troops are being pulled from Syria, and if troops end up being pulled from Afghanistan...where are they headed next?
~It's either going to be Iran or somewhere other than Iran and my bet's on the former.

It kind of makes me wonder if the Syria announcement was the only thing that prompted Mattis to flip the bird and bail just as suddenly. Something along the lines of Trump demanding the bombing of Tehran or somesuch?
posted by Thorzdad at 4:17 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

What's the relationship between Iran and Russia like right now?
posted by clawsoon at 4:17 PM on December 20, 2018 [6 favorites]

It kind of makes me wonder if the Syria announcement was the only thing that prompted Mattis to flip the bird and bail just as suddenly. Something along the lines of Trump demanding the bombing of Tehran or somesuch?

I was under the impression that Mattis was a bit of an Iran hawk? Not in a "lets start bombing immediately loololololollllllolo" way like Bolton but still a hawk?

My understanding is that Trump is leaning towards immediately ordering all troops out of Afghanistan as well as Syria. That plus Trump's toadying lickspittle attitude towards Putin is probably the catalyst.
posted by Justinian at 4:20 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

I'd put a buck on Bolton for SecDef.
posted by tclark at 4:20 PM on December 20, 2018 [13 favorites]

I've been saying "why don't these people do the nation a solid and hunt down their coworkers like mad dogs in the street" but I guess resignation is also an option.
posted by poffin boffin at 4:21 PM on December 20, 2018 [25 favorites]

Realistically, Trump not listening to Mattis anymore is more than enough reason for him to resign. It's the really-for-reals warning to Republicans that nothing is stopping this moron from doing any moron thing he wants. They've slept under their St. Mattis blankets until now.

Mattis stood by smiling while Trump signed the first Muslim ban. But he doesn't have to be a good person to not want to deliver Putin a slate of Christmas presents. I'm disgusted by Mattis and in the immediate moment I feel like that disgust deserves voice because his PR rehabilitation campaign is already underway, but this is also still a very clear sign. The two concerns can coexist.

But as Chris Hayes said in the cited tweet above, Republican disinterest is an immense force and there's still every reason to worry they'll shrug this off like they've shrugged off every other giant red flag.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:21 PM on December 20, 2018 [35 favorites]

@NBCNews Exclusive: Special Counsel Robert Mueller may submit report to attorney general as soon as mid-February, sources say
posted by bluesky43 at 4:22 PM on December 20, 2018 [7 favorites]

Folks, I know there's some actual meaty points of speculation out there, and that shit is just weird as hell 24/7 anyway, but I'd really appreciate if we could keep the speculation specific and grounded and avoid just kind of free-for-all doominess or You Know What Would Be Really Awful kinds of spitballing.
posted by cortex (staff) at 4:23 PM on December 20, 2018 [28 favorites]

Is there a limit to the number of people who can leave before there aren't enough Senate-confirmed people to fill all the senior positions? If so, how close to the limit are we?
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:24 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

This kind of petty grift pales in comparison to much of today's news, but its still exactly who these people are. NYT, A Top Aide’s Exit Plan Raises Eyebrows in the White House

After weeks of discussions about his future, Zachary D. Fuentes, the 36-year-old deputy White House chief of staff, had a plan. Mr. Fuentes told colleagues that after his mentor, John F. Kelly, left his job as chief of staff at the end of the year, he would “hide out” at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, adjacent to the White House, for six months, remaining on the payroll in a nebulous role. Then, in July, when he had completed 19 years of service in the Coast Guard, Mr. Fuentes — an active-duty officer — would take advantage of an early retirement program.

The program, referred to as temporary early retirement authority, had lapsed for Coast Guard officials at the end of the 2018 fiscal year, and, according to people briefed on the discussions, Department of Homeland Security officials began pressing Congress in November to reinstate it. Administration officials said they had been told that Mr. Fuentes discussed the program with officials at the Department of Homeland Security, and after reporters raised questions with lawmakers of both parties, a provision to reinstate it was abruptly pulled from a House bill on Wednesday.

The White House declined to answer questions about whether Mr. Fuentes had pressed to have the program restarted, saying only that he planned to remain on for a time as a senior adviser to aid in the transition to a new chief of staff. But in interviews, nearly a dozen White House and administration aides, none of whom would speak on the record, raised concerns about how they believed Mr. Fuentes planned to use government resources in the coming months.

Mr. Fuentes has become one of the most controversial aides inside the West Wing, earning nicknames like “Zotus” (Zach of the United States) and “prime minister” for his approach to other White House officials.

"And I would have gotten away with it if I wasn't such an asshole that nearly a dozen colleagues turned me in" he says, as he realizes he's stuck. They're also blaming Fuentes for the decision to have Trump skip the military cemetery visit in France.

----

@NBCNews Exclusive: Special Counsel Robert Mueller may submit report to attorney general as soon as mid-February, sources say

Are these the same defense-side sources that were saying he'd wrap it up by September or by the end of the year?
posted by zachlipton at 4:27 PM on December 20, 2018 [22 favorites]

Is there a limit to the number of people who can leave before there aren't enough Senate-confirmed people to fill all the senior positions?

Could Individual-1 simply make continuous interim appointments, and avoid confirmations altogether?
posted by Thorzdad at 4:28 PM on December 20, 2018 [2 favorites]

Why is Trump hurrying so quick to deliver for Putin?

And why is Putin openly gloating? He even twists the knife with his public support of Trump's Syria pullout: “On this, Donald is right. I agree with him." Emphasis added, because never mind the lack of respect behind the false familiarity of using Trump's first name, Trump hates being called Donald.

Later, at his annual press conference, Putin derided the US presence in Afghanistan: “How long has the United States been in Afghanistan? Seventeen years? And almost every year they say they’re pulling out their troops.” And coincidentally, the WSJ received a leak that the Trump administration is considering substantial Afghan troop drawdown.

What did he and Trump discuss at the G20, however briefly, and have they been talking on the telephone since?
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:31 PM on December 20, 2018 [14 favorites]

The Year in Trump Freakouts. Jim Mattis is out, the President is leaving Syria without consulting anyone, and that’s just this week in crises of the President’s own making. Susan B. Glasser The New Yorker.

What we do know is that all the chaos at year’s end is a powerful reminder that the manner in which the President operates is so outside of any normal parameters for governing, so disdainful of process, and so heedless of consequences that his decisions don’t resolve crises so much as create them.
...
Remember when Trump dismissed vast swaths of the planet as “shithole countries”? That was less than a year ago, in January of 2018. Or when he fired his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, by Twitter? It seems like forever ago, but it was only this March. When Trump was touting himself to win the Nobel Peace Prize for his nuclear diplomacy with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un? That, too, was only this spring. Kim, of course, ends the year with his nuclear arsenal intact, and his ego boosted by lavish praise from the President of the United States; needless to say, the prize went elsewhere.
posted by bluesky43 at 4:34 PM on December 20, 2018 [5 favorites]

Are these the same defense-side sources that were saying he'd wrap it up by September or by the end of the year?

Sounds like it. NBC: Mueller May Submit Report To Attorney General As Soon As Mid-February, Say Sources—"They clearly are tying up loose ends," said a lawyer who has been in contact with the Mueller team. "The sources either did not know or would not say whether Mueller has answered the fundamental question he was hired to investigate: Whether Trump or anyone around him conspired with the Russian intelligence operations to help his campaign."

Although by this time Mueller probably has more than enough for an obstruction of justice case, Trump's interview notwithstanding, untangling the Trump-Russia connections will take a long time, even at Mueller's swift pace.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:38 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

Ana Navarro:

Oh hell. I remember when Mattis, John Kelly and Tillerson made a pact that one of them would always be babysitting Trump. With Mattis gone, #PresidentLoco is now without adult supervision. Be afraid, America. Be very, afraid.

posted by numaner at 4:44 PM on December 20, 2018 [13 favorites]

I predict Trump will be out of office one way or another by the end of 2019.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:54 PM on December 20, 2018 [11 favorites]

If only the founders had planned on something like this by building checks & balances into the system.
posted by kokaku at 4:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [56 favorites]

We need wall. From Language Log:

Here's DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen testifying in congress today:
From congress I would ask for wall. We need wall.

And apparently a DHS press release posted on 12/12 began
DHS is committed to building wall and building wall quickly. We are not replacing short, outdated and ineffective wall with similar wall.

and continued in a similar vein. I'm reminded of the joke about the first lecture of Russian class for English speakers: "I start with good news! In English language, is necessary to use article! But in Russian language, no article!"

Someone at DHS (though apparently not Secretary Nielsen) seems to have had second thoughts, because the page was edited on 12/18 to add some articles:
Update:
The Department of Homeland Security appears to have edited the language of a news release that previously referred to the border wall as "wall." It now reads "a wall"
— Hamza Shaban (@hshaban) December 20, 2018
posted by bluesky43 at 4:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [23 favorites]

CNN's Jim Acosta: A House GOP member to CNN on Mattis departure: "The wheels may be coming off."

Wheels Coming Off Watch:

—BBC's Joy Hackel: "@RepAdamSchiff just told @MarcoWerman “it does seem like the wheels are really coming off the wagon here.”"
—MSNBC's Kyle Griffin: "A senior national security official told @JoshNBCNews that the "wheels are coming off" tonight. @TheBeatWithAri"
—NBC's Ken Dilanian: “Former CIA ops officer on the Mattis news: "You ever wonder what’d be like if a wheel came off of your crossover vehicle with your whole family in it on the freeway? Well, your gonna get to experience it without your family being in any immediate danger. In February."”

Seriously, though, former Obama Deputy Asst. Secretary of Defense for Russia/Easter Europe Evelyn Farkas proposes an explanation for why Mattis apparently negotiated his departure for February: "Secretary Mattis explains in his letter, he selected the end of Feb date to ensure “the Department’s interests” “are protected” at the NATO ministerial. That means he’s staying until 2/28 to defend NATO from PresTrump."
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:56 PM on December 20, 2018 [19 favorites]

> A House GOP member to CNN on Mattis departure: "The wheels may be coming off."

"May be"? Sounds like somebody's still holding out hope for the fabled Pivot!
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:58 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

Bette Midler -
NY Attorney General has ordered the Trump Foundation to dissolve. It’s always SAD to see a charitable organization fold, especially one that gave so much to the children— Ivanka, Eric, and Don Jr.
posted by growabrain at 5:01 PM on December 20, 2018 [28 favorites]

Yeah, the guidance we’ve received so far at USDA is, to be kind, nonsensical.

Hi Wintermind! And none is more nonsensical than the instructions I gave my students today: "You (to the intern on government funding) don't need to come in until next Wednesday. Unless the government shuts down. Then, if our leave is cancelled you need to come in on Monday so you can officially sign in so you can sign out. If our leave isn't cancelled, you need to come in Wednesday so you can officially sign in so you can sign out. You (to the intern on University funding) don't need to pay attention to this. Just don't come in."
posted by acrasis at 5:02 PM on December 20, 2018 [30 favorites]

“it does seem like the wheels are really coming off the wagon here.”"

Can't they at least come up with a new metaphor? That was one has been used for the past 25 scandals and the wagon is still scraping along.
posted by Liquidwolf at 5:05 PM on December 20, 2018 [13 favorites]

James Mattis’s Final Protest Against the President
The defense secretary, who resigned on Thursday, was one of the last senior officials in the government who could constrain Donald Trump. The Atlantic.

Mattis’s departure will send an immediate shudder through both Washington and foreign capitals. The president will be hard-pressed to find a replacement who will instill confidence in Congress and the ranks of the military while still maintaining an effective relationship with the White House. Meanwhile, Mattis’s exit could even further strain relations with American allies, who have seen him as a calming influence and for whom he has often served as a direct conduit. In the end, Mattis proved to be the Trump administration’s most effective diplomat, whether negotiating the fraught internal battles of the administration or speaking to foreign leaders.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:06 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

In the end, Mattis proved to be the Trump administration’s most effective diplomat

it really says something about trump's utter desecration of the state department that the most effective diplomat in his administration is in the post formerly known as the "Secretary of War"
posted by murphy slaw at 5:09 PM on December 20, 2018 [25 favorites]

In a resignation letter, Mattis laid out a series of differences with Trump, who he said deserved to have a secretary of defense who was aligned with him.

Do the rest of us, though? If there are still history books after this is all over, one of the chapters will be named NONE DARED SAY "NO."
posted by The Card Cheat at 5:12 PM on December 20, 2018 [20 favorites]

A majority of the cabinet and the Vice President can stop this. A supermajority in the senate can stop this. We need this now to save the long-term credibility of our nation and save our Kurdish allies from genocide.
posted by metasunday at 5:22 PM on December 20, 2018 [30 favorites]

Text of Mattis' letter, suitable for copy-pasting, with link to a PDF of the original scan/photo version.

My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign
actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of
immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to advance an international order
that is most conducive to our security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this
effort by the solidarity of our alliances.

Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better
aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my
position.

So, he seems to be saying, "I think we should help our friends and not the bad guys, and... I'm leaving over differences of opinion."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:28 PM on December 20, 2018 [30 favorites]

When this is all over, if we get through this, all of these people, cabinet officials and congressmen and various Trump allies and enablers are going to have book tours and speaking tours full of crazy anecdotes about their time with Trump. They're going to go on the Today show and talk about the all the evil shit they helped happen and be like, "Lol, can you believe, it was just nuts". And when they try this, we need to make sure they get what's coming to them, too.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:29 PM on December 20, 2018 [100 favorites]

I predict Trump will be out of office one way or another by the end of 2019.

Them's cakin' words!

To add a little meat to this, Mattis does say he's staying until the end of February, so with Mueller saying he's going to submit a report mid-February implies to me at least the possiblity of a window of redemption. We'll have a much better idea of how much cake to bake then.
posted by rhizome at 5:30 PM on December 20, 2018 [10 favorites]

Bloomberg, U.S. to Withdraw About 7,000 Troops From Afghanistan: Official

The U.S. plans to withdraw 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, about half the number that are currently there, according to a U.S. defense official, Bloomberg News reports.

I'm imagining Trump said "pull them all out," and Pentagon officials kept trying to bargain until they ended up with half.
posted by zachlipton at 5:33 PM on December 20, 2018 [8 favorites]

We need this now to save the long-term credibility of our nation and save our Kurdish allies from genocide.

Offer a full pull-out from Afghanistan in exchange for security guarantees for the SDF.
posted by Apocryphon at 5:35 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

Regarding Mattis' letter of resignation. I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that not only did the president not give the letter a thorough reading, I am willing to bet he did not even skim over it.
I really feel bad for all you young'uns that are going to have to live with the fallout from this man's compulsive and reckless behavior for the next three or four decades.
posted by notreally at 5:41 PM on December 20, 2018 [10 favorites]

HIV+ service members are being kicked out of the military.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 5:45 PM on December 20, 2018 [35 favorites]

@JenniferShutt: House votes 217-185 to approve a bill that would provide
- funding through Feb. 8 for the nine departments and several agencies without full-year spending bills.
- $5.7b for border security
- $7.8b for disaster aid.
Bill now goes to Senate where it can't pass.

Here are the 8 Republicans who voted no. Vox has the broader shutdown state of play.

Spare a thought tonight for Sen. Schatz, who just flew from Washington DC to Hawaii, only to turn right around and come back after a 17 minute visit with his family.

But spare several thoughts for federal workers:
@sarahnferris: Tonight, I asked Scott Perry (R-Pa.) about effect of fed employees being furloughed. He argued it had no real impact since employees eventually get paid back. "Who’s living that they’re not going to make it to the next paycheck?"

@MEPFuller: Polls generally indicate that 70-80% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.
posted by zachlipton at 5:47 PM on December 20, 2018 [70 favorites]

CNN's Manu Raju:

Mark Meadows told me that - after the WH meeting - he come away with the impression that Trump won’t cave - even after the Senate very likely rejects the bill now before the House.

I asked Meadows if he believes Senate bill would pass after House bill fails.

“It is possibility it gets put on the floor” of House. “It’s not a possibility it gets signed it to law. ... He made that very clear today.”

Meadows said that if there’s a shutdown he believes pressure will build on Schumer to cut a deal on border security. Trump seems to agree.

NBC's Heidi Przybyla:

If this is truly a moment for the history books, let the record reflect:

As the stock market tanked, the govt. was on the verge of shutdown & Mattis was finalizing his resignation -- Trump was tweeting a Green Acres spoof of himself in overalls.

Just stating the facts.

Seriously, @realDonaldTrump did. (Reluctant co-star Megan Mullally was chagrinned.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:52 PM on December 20, 2018 [33 favorites]

"Coyotes." Oh Lord above.
posted by homunculus at 5:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [18 favorites]

"Wheels coming off the wagon" is a super appropriate way to describe Mattis resigning. He did, in fact, prop up this corrupt, racist, cruel shitshow on its trip to Garbage Town, and at the same time his departure is a bad sign for everyone.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [12 favorites]

According to Lambda Legal, the Trump administration is using a new policy they implemented in February called “Deploy or Get Out,” which separates those who have not deployed in over 12 months from their military service.

Is "deploy" a term of art in the military? Because it sounds pretty draconian to this civilian.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

They'll claim they're not specifically targeting HIV+ people; it's just incidental that the policy works that way:

According to Lambda Legal, the Trump administration is using a new policy they implemented in February called “Deploy or Get Out,” which separates those who have not deployed in over 12 months from their military service. When one combines this new policy with policies already in place which forbid service members living with HIV from deploying outside the United States without a waiver, you get the legal justification to fire HIV-positive service members.

Wilkie is very upset that there are a lot of medical waivers for deployment, and wants to throw those people out. He doesn't say who he'd like to replace them with; last I heard, the armed forces are having trouble getting enough volunteers, and it'll have a harder time with a pitch like, "career experience + education support... unless we screw up your vaccination schedule and fail to send you out of the country in time."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [9 favorites]

The problem with the the wheels coming off the bus is that we are all stuck on the bus.
posted by emjaybee at 5:58 PM on December 20, 2018 [46 favorites]

My brother enlisted in the Army this summer. I am very, very scared for him.
posted by elsietheeel at 6:02 PM on December 20, 2018 [22 favorites]

i tacitly replace "bus" with "turnip truck" whenever the presspunditocrats use one of those unfortunate metaphors.

it has not, live, worked as zingy wordplay yet.
posted by 20 year lurk at 6:05 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

"wheels coming off the bus" is the new "increasingly isolated" then?
posted by localhuman at 6:05 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

Y'all I am putting a boot on the wheel of the "wheels on the bus" bus, let's not go another twenty comments on it please.
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:06 PM on December 20, 2018 [46 favorites]

Government shutdowns suck and Democrats tend to be less comfortable with letting people go without paychecks so there's a chance that Schumer might cave on this one. I mean "Schumer" and "cave" are close to synonymous. It is vital that we don't blink on this one though. The Republicans had the votes for the current plan without the wall funding and the go ahead from the WH and then Trump changed his mind because of mean tweets. They must be made to own this and that means that we must pressure our congresspeople to hold fast and not blink. And that means suffering for a shit ton of people. They will not be suffering because the Democrats refuse to fund something unconscionable thought - this suffering must be laid at the feet of the Republicans.

Now is the time for us to be loud and clear and persistent in reminding everyone we know why there's a shutdown. It's because of Trump. He wanted this, he's getting this, and he must be made to own this. Caving just let's the Republicans take the same hostages again next time.
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:07 PM on December 20, 2018 [18 favorites]

Is "deploy" a term of art in the military? Because it sounds pretty draconian to this civilian.

Yes. And that Krassenstein-wrtten article, like anything else ever written by a Krassenstein, is inaccurate: the policy is not to separate those who have not deployed in over 12 months, it's to separate (with various exceptions including for those who are wounded or pregnant) those who have been non-deployable for 12 months. The point is that everyone in the military should generally be able to be deployed to do military stuff somewhere, and that we broadly shouldn't have a lot of servicemembers who aren't able to do that long-term.

That said, there are plenty of servicemembers with HIV who would seem to be perfectly able to do their jobs. The fault there is the military's blanket no-deployment policy for those with HIV, not deploy or get out. The Post had a better, Krassenstein-free story: They tested positive for HIV. Then the military kicked them out.
posted by zachlipton at 6:10 PM on December 20, 2018 [21 favorites]

Just reflecting that the Dow was at 19,827.25 on Obama’s last day in office (Jan 20, 2017).

Eight months later (Oct 20), the Dow had reached 23,328.63, a gain that (if we are to credit to any President) arguably redounds mainly to the inertia of the Obama Recovery.

Today (Dec 20, 2018), the Dow is below that point, at 22859.60. And the folks on Nightly Business Report are talking about a possible recession in 2019.

If anything is going to change a Republican lawmaker’s mind about Impeachment, it’s going to be their wealthy donors, who are losing fortunes because of the idiocy of President Chaos, threatening to pull their future funding. And near-retirement Republicans who see their 401K plans losing a quarter of their value.

If the stock marked drops below 20,000, we will have wiped out all of the market gains from any continuation of the recovery under Trump. I’d expect GOP apathy to shift into something like panic. We’re not that far off.
posted by darkstar at 6:19 PM on December 20, 2018 [36 favorites]

I don't think anybody was ever under the impression that Mattis was a good guy... you don't get a nickname like "Mad Dog" in the US military while holding the sort of views that most people on Metafilter including myself would be particularly comfortable with. Plus, despite his protestations of being bound by duty, he still agreed to be part of the Trump administration, and associated with its manifest corruption and betrayal of the American people.

While he never showed real enthusiasm over the border militarization and camps, and almost certainly talked Trump down from hostilities with North Korea that would've seen a minimum of 500,000 Seoul residents dead, the man was definitely an Iran hawk. At least until the arrival of John Bolton (who in the majority of my anxiety dreams is the person most directly responsible for the apocalypse), compared to whom Mattis would indeed come off as "some kind of Democrat."

So, no, Mattis is not a good person on the whole. That said, there were a few things about Mattis that all of us were relying on, whether we knew it or not:
1) The man is deeply intelligent by the standards of any administration, and quite possibly the only one with an IQ higher than their pulse in this one. He is very much a student of history and not the sort of person that starts nuclear wars, carelessly or otherwise.
2) He has always exhibited profound loyalty to the people under his command, which extended to not throwing their lives away, particularly not over political posturing.
3) Within that weird, narrow definition of patriotism paleo-conservatives hold, he is intensely patriotic in a way that I find as off-putting as I find it useful because I live here. He wants to see America win, and his definition of winning does not include Pyrrhic victories like, say, being the first to strike in a full theater exchange.

These three points have always meant that up until now there was someone who understood the risks of brinksmanship and of nuclear weapons standing between Trump and the launch codes. Someone who all military decisions had to flow through who was asking "what do we gain by doing this?" I don't know about the rest of you but despite deep disagreements with his worldview Mattis was pretty much the only reason I've been able to sleep at night for the past two years.

And that's going away now, and whoever the replacement will be, there's a very strong chance of putting a bodycount on this administration that rises far beyond the usual background noise of the US military-industrial complex. I think we see a coup before anything potentially human-civilization-endingly bad happens, but I'm a lot less certain of that than I was yesterday.

My brother enlisted in the Army this summer. I am very, very scared for him.
posted by elsietheeel

Two members of my extended family this past year, and very much feeling the same right now.
posted by Ryvar at 6:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [66 favorites]

Reading now that after Trump’s Syria announcement, the Turkish defense minister expressed the intent to double down on attacking Kurds, who will be losing their U.S. backing. And Trump didn’t seem to care about leaving allies in a lurch.

And that’s what triggered Mattis to resign.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 6:27 PM on December 20, 2018 [34 favorites]

On a related note, the Dow is down about 10% since January 1. If this holds to the end of the year, it will be the worst yearly return since 2008, and one of the five worst yearly returns in the past 40 years.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 6:28 PM on December 20, 2018 [17 favorites]

Which makes sense, because Trump knows very well that his base neither knows nor cares where the nation of Kurdania is.
posted by delfin at 6:29 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

Sure, there was lots of passive-aggressive shade in Mattis’ letter, but he was still providing cover for Trump, or at least the Republican brand. I mean, I get that he can’t be all like “Fuck you, fuck you, you’re cool, fuck you” on his way out the door, but it was still full of language about how proud he was to serve and what Trump “deserves” instead of warnings about how the President of the United States is an unhinged maniac blatantly in thrall to a hostile foreign power.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:44 PM on December 20, 2018 [38 favorites]

On a related note, the Dow is down about 10% since January 1. If this holds to the end of the year, it will be the worst yearly return since 2008

I'm sorry, it sounds like you mean it would be the worst year since before Obama took office.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:50 PM on December 20, 2018 [21 favorites]

Couple things...

Mattis isn't a bad guy. He's a career Marine, a patriot, and while you may not like his politics or his job, he's done the job with utmost professionalism to the best of his ability. SECDEF is arguably a shit job in good times. This one has aged him too quickly. There was a reason he RARELY went on camera - never wanted to look like he was upstaging The Boss so that he could do his job and not be perceived as a threat. The fact that that even MATTERS, and that he was AWARE of it, should give you a sense of how dire the situation got.

His resignation is going to have lasting repercussions and not many of them good. Like him or hate him, he's arguably one of the top 5 people qualified for the job. Rumors are swirling that Tom Cotton may be his nominated replacement.

Anyway...one of those repercussions is what happens with Joseph Dunford (chairman, Joint Chiefs) - who has also been a normal, stabilizing influence. If Dunford goes, seriously....<> help us.
posted by Thistledown at 6:51 PM on December 20, 2018 [20 favorites]

...but it was still full of language about how proud he was to serve and what Trump “deserves” instead of warnings about how the President of the United States is an unhinged maniac blatantly in thrall to a hostile foreign power.

The warnings will come. Just not so publicly. Had he left a “fuck you, you colossal moron, you’re gonna get us all killed” letter, he would have easily been dismissed by pretty much everyone as a disgruntled crank. He knows how politics works. If, in fact, he has serious warnings for the nation, he’ll make them. To the people who matter.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:54 PM on December 20, 2018 [8 favorites]

The warnings will come. Just not so publicly. Had he left a “fuck you, you colossal moron, you’re gonna get us all killed” letter, he would have easily been dismissed by pretty much everyone as a disgruntled crank. He knows how politics works. If, in fact, he has serious warnings for the nation, he’ll make them. To the people who matter.
posted by Thorzdad at 9:54 PM on December 20 [+] [!]

He just did.
posted by Thistledown at 6:55 PM on December 20, 2018 [17 favorites]

Mattis isn't a bad guy. He's a career Marine, a patriot, and while you may not like his politics or his job, he's done the job with utmost professionalism to the best of his ability.

He willingly served a commander-in-chief who is an asset to a foreign power. Yeah. Great Marine there.
posted by valkane at 7:00 PM on December 20, 2018 [39 favorites]

If Dunford goes, seriously....<> help us.

From the WaPo's prescient article yesterday: Mattis, Once One of ‘My Generals,’ Loses His Influence With Trump

Mattis is also frustrated that Trump vetoed his choice to become the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation’s highest-ranking military officer. Trump announced this month that he has chosen Gen. Mark A. Milley, the Army’s chief of staff, to replace the current chairman, Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., who is due to step down next fall. Mattis had recommended the Air Force chief of staff, Gen. David L. Goldfein, people familiar with the discussions said.

So we have until the end of this February before Mattis, and the end of September for Dunford.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:04 PM on December 20, 2018 [2 favorites]

Mattis isn't a bad guy... while you may not like his politics

It's been stated several times already that Mattis is overseeing the military imprisonment of immigrant children. That's not a simple political difference.

Point taken that the person is his position could be worse. That doesn't make this man acceptable.
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:05 PM on December 20, 2018 [69 favorites]

I'm used to having to take the "don't stereotype the military as awful" side on Metafilter but I'm gonna go ahead and say this anyway:

Mattis isn't a bad guy. He's a career Marine, a patriot, and while you may not like his politics or his job, he's done the job with utmost professionalism to the best of his ability.

Being a Marine or in any other branch is not inherently indicative of one's character. We have two Marine Raiders facing murder charges along with a couple SEALs right now 'cause they killed a Green Beret who was about to expose their money laundering. If you want something more widespread, Google up "Marines United" and "court martial." Those are just off the top of my head. That uniform doesn't mean someone is inherently bad (don't start) and it doesn't mean they're inherently good.

Mattis signed up with this crew. He didn't jump ship when Trump decided to ban people from coming here based on their religion. He didn't jump ship when this White House started putting kids in concentration camps. Again and again we've been at the moment of truth and again and again every "adult in the room" decided to stand there and see how it would play out.

Yes, Mattis may have been standing in the way of even crazier shit. For a while. Maybe. He also stood by long past the point of absolutely unacceptable actions. At some point we need to accept that maybe they really are all literally this bad.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 7:09 PM on December 20, 2018 [105 favorites]

David Frum: No More Excuses

For almost two full years, James Mattis has provided the nation with a collective security blanket—and national-security-minded Republicans with a credible excuse. Whatever outrageous or weird or even suspicious things President Donald Trump might do, Mattis was at the head of the order of battle: an American through and through, untainted and uncompromised

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:11 PM on December 20, 2018 [6 favorites]

you don't get a nickname like "Mad Dog" in the US military while holding the sort of views that most people on Metafilter including myself would be particularly comfortable with.

There is a 95% chance people went with “Mad Dog” because his last name starts with an M.
posted by sideshow at 7:20 PM on December 20, 2018 [27 favorites]

These threads sometimes feel like Groundhog Day 'cause I swear we've had this convo before.

"Mad Dog" is ironic, like when a tall guy is nicknamed "Tiny" or a fat guy is nicknamed "Slim". He's supposedly a scholarly type.
posted by Justinian at 7:24 PM on December 20, 2018 [31 favorites]

There seems to be a lot of uncertainty & speculation for the reasoning behind the joint pullout from Syria & Afghanistan. I think the explanation's pretty simple, one we've already discussed: they're not his wars so they're not fun for him. He wants a war that's HIS & his alone. These other wars are tainted by other presidents especially the hated Obama whose very existence must be erased from history. Only then can he start his own lovely war & have all those soldiers dying for him & him alone.
posted by scalefree at 7:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [12 favorites]

he's done the job with utmost professionalism to the best of his ability.

You know, that is precisely what the folks at Nuremberg claimed in their defense. They were meticulously professional. Professionalism isn't the criteria. It's what you willingly choose to do that matters.

Like him or hate him, he's arguably one of the top 5 people qualified for the job.

Precisely the opposite, he was disqualified for Secretary of Defense by law. The secretary is supposed to be a civilian. His confirmation required a separate waiver of the law.

Congress when they set up the Department of Defense they specifically recognized that the position should be a civilian. Many people have cited Mattis' loyalty to his troops and that is exactly why you don't want a general in charge. There is a higher loyalty to the constitution and the country.
posted by JackFlash at 7:27 PM on December 20, 2018 [103 favorites]

Atlantic, Edward-Isaac Dovere, Barack Obama Goes All In Politically To Fight Gerrymandering

Barack Obama on Thursday night announced a major shift in the politics of his post-presidency, folding his Organizing for Action group into the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.

The consolidation focuses and directs Obama’s political activity and fundraising for a cause that has become a major focus since he left the White House: gerrymandering reform.

It ends the six-year existence of OFA, formed out of the pieces of Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, which at times struggled to find footing with a clear mission. The Chicago-based group will cease to exist.

“People want common sense gun safety laws, Congress ignores it. People want compressive immigration reform, Congress ignores it,” Obama said in a call with top supporters on Thursday night. “The single most important thing that could be done at the grassroots level over the next few years is to make sure the rules of the road are fair. If we do that, I think we’ll do the right thing.”
...
Holder said Obama has landed on redistricting reform as his central political cause as a way to get more action on climate change, gun control and health care. He argued that those would move if the state legislatures and House districts elect members who are more representative of the voting public than the current lines allow.

I agree, but with climate change, we literally do not have time to wait for a new cycle of redistricting and elections before we take action.
posted by zachlipton at 7:28 PM on December 20, 2018 [30 favorites]

I agree, but with climate change, we literally do not have time to wait for a new cycle of redistricting and elections before we take action.

I understand the feeling behind this, I really do, and I'd be overjoyed to find a shortcut to making the changes required to handle what's coming - but just in case it doesn't? I'm glad there are people hard at work pushing along the long road as well.
posted by AdamCSnider at 7:36 PM on December 20, 2018 [22 favorites]

Whatever we may think personally of Mattis, there is a large five-sided office building in Virginia full of people that no longer trust a single person in the White House, and that is going to get weird.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:40 PM on December 20, 2018 [67 favorites]

@nycsouthpaw:

Mattis's letter gets at something more important than whether there's some smoking gun chain of text messages btw Trump and Putin. As he implies, the Trump admin, like the Trump campaign and transition, has put foreign adversaries' interests before America's and its allies'.

For various reasons related to consensus building, people have latched onto the possibility that Trump sold out the US in the specific context of a documentable conspiracy with a foreign govt. The precise outlines of US interests are arguable, an exposed secret plot less so. But ultimately, the betrayal itself, the promotion of adversaries' interests "at the expense of their neighbors, America and our allies," is more important than whether there was a secret agreement to do it. And Trump's own defense secretary seems to be saying that's happening.

What if we don't need a Mueller investigation? What if we declared that selling out our allies and advancing our adversaries' interests over our own was an impeachable offense in and of itself?

----

WaPo, ‘A tailspin’: Under siege, Trump propels the government and markets into crisis. It's a wrap-up of everything, but I just want to highlight this:

Trump spent six to seven minutes in the meeting with Ryan and McCarthy talking about “steel slats” and saying that the term was preferable to calling the proposed construction a “wall,” as the president has done for more than three years.

Usually, we can at least figure out where he comes up with some crazy scheme (Fox News), but where the hell did he get this one? He spent the whole campaign being very explicit that a wall is different from a fence, going into great detail on its height and other specifications. The only thing I can think is that a lot of the existing barriers are already made up of slats, and maybe he wants to take credit for them too, even though he campaigned on how bad they are?
posted by zachlipton at 7:46 PM on December 20, 2018 [20 favorites]

you don't get a nickname like "Mad Dog" in the US military while holding the sort of views that most people on Metafilter including myself would be particularly comfortable with.

There is a 95% chance people went with “Mad Dog” because his last name starts with an M.

Sorry if I'm taking this too far, but speaking of stereotypes? Military, in particular?

We had a "Mad Dog" at my last station -- in the Coast Guard. Pretty sure he didn't do a whole lot of rabid American imperialism. Also, that time we had a bull wander into our parking lot, our Mad Dog was the one who said "I did not sign up for this kind of crazy" and went back inside while the rest of us had to herd it back to its field. Which is to say that yes, you too can join the Coast Guard and wind up herding cattle. The military contains multitudes, folks.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 7:47 PM on December 20, 2018 [52 favorites]

Usually, we can at least figure out where he comes up with some crazy scheme...

Remember, it has to be see-through ("transparency" is important!) so we can see if they're going to be throwing bags of drugs over. Wouldn't want to get hit in the head with a bag of drugs....
posted by Weeping_angel at 7:57 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

The US is the world’s largest steel importer. (Top 10 source countries for US steel imports include Canada and Mexico... and Russia and Turkey.)
posted by Iris Gambol at 7:57 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

McConnell 'distressed' over reasons for Mattis resignation

“I believe it’s essential that the United States maintain and strengthen the post-World War II alliances that have been carefully built by leaders in both parties," McConnell said in a statement. "We must also maintain a clear-eyed understanding of our friends and foes, and recognize that nations like Russia are among the latter."

“So I was sorry to learn that Secretary Mattis, who shares those clear principles, will soon depart the administration. But I am particularly distressed that he is resigning due to sharp differences with the president on these and other key aspects of America’s global leadership," McConnell said.

You know, I think he actually sounds a bit worried.
posted by scalefree at 8:07 PM on December 20, 2018 [36 favorites]

Is he distressed about Mattis or the President?
posted by schmod at 8:12 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

McConnell 'distressed' over reasons for Mattis resignation

okay folks i have to come clean, i MAY have wished that mitch mcconnell would have a terrible day while i was holding the monkey's paw
posted by murphy slaw at 8:16 PM on December 20, 2018 [118 favorites]

[Yes, I have gone down the rabbit hole, but...]

I have been privileged to serve as our country's 26th Secretary of Defense which has allowed me to serve alongside our men and women of the Department in defense of our citizens and our ideals.
Although he was elected as a Republican, the president shows little affinity for ideals long espoused by conservatives: free minds, free markets and free people. At best, he has invoked these ideals in scripted settings. At worst, he has attacked them outright.
I am proud of the progress that has been made over the past two years on some of the key goals articulated in our National Defense Strategy: putting the Department on a more sound budgetary footing, improving readiness and lethality in our forces, and reforming the Department's business practices for greater performance.
Don’t get me wrong. There are bright spots that the near-ceaseless negative coverage of the administration fails to capture: effective deregulation, historic tax reform, a more robust military and more. [See also about over a half-dozen other triple-lists across both documents.]
One core belief I have always held is that our strength as a nation is inextricably linked to the strength of our unique and comprehensive system of alliances and partnerships. While the US remains the indispensable nation in the free world, we cannot protect our interests or serve that role effectively without maintaining strong alliances and showing respect to those allies. …

Similarly, I believe we must be resolute and unambiguous in our approach to those countries whose strategic interests are increasingly in tension with ours. It is clear that China and Russia, for example, want to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model - gaining veto authority over other nations' economic, diplomatic, and security decisions - to promote their own interests at the expense of their neighbors, America and our allies. That is why we must use all the tools of American power to provide for the common defense.

My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both MALIGN actors and strategic competitors are strongly held and informed by over four decades of immersion in these issues. We must do everything possible to advance an international order that is most conducive to our security, prosperity and values, and we are strengthened in this effort by the solidarity of our alliances.
Take foreign policy: In public and in private, President Trump shows a preference for autocrats and dictators, such as President Vladimir Putin of Russia and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, and displays little genuine appreciation for the ties that bind us to allied, like-minded nations.

Astute observers have noted, though, that the rest of the administration is operating on another track, one where countries like Russia are called out for meddling and punished accordingly, and where allies around the world are engaged as peers rather than ridiculed as rivals.

On Russia, for instance, the president was reluctant to expel so many of Mr. Putin’s spies as punishment for the poisoning of a former Russian spy in Britain. He complained for weeks about senior staff members letting him get boxed into further confrontation with Russia, and he expressed frustration that the United States continued to impose sanctions on the country for its MALIGN behavior. But his national security team knew better — such actions had to be taken, to hold Moscow accountable.
I pledge my full effort to a smooth transition that ensures the needs and interests of the 2.15 million Service Members and 732,079 DoD civilians receive undistracted attention of the Department at all times so that they can fulfill their critical, round-the-clock mission to protect the American people.
Senator John McCain put it best in his farewell letter. All Americans should heed his words and break free of the tribalism trap, with the high aim of uniting through our shared values and love of this great nation....

There is a quiet resistance within the administration of people choosing to put country first. But the real difference will be made by everyday citizens rising above politics, reaching across the aisle and resolving to shed the labels in favor of a single one: Americans.

posted by chortly at 8:18 PM on December 20, 2018 [10 favorites]

"I'm distressed, because there's nothing to be done!" says man clearly in a position to do something.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:18 PM on December 20, 2018 [32 favorites]

@RichardEngel: A sr military official told me US special forces troops distraught, upset, morally disturbed by having to tell their kurdish allies in Syria that, because of orders, their promises of defense won’t be kept.

@rabrowne75: Defense officials tell me Mattis went to the White House to discuss Syria & that he was livid after reading reports that Turkey's Defense Minister threatened to kill US-backed Kurds & put them in ditches once the US withdrew. He was incensed at this notion of betrayal of an ally

(Context for "put them in ditches")

Calvin Trillin wrote a little poem back in 2003. I was in school and happened to be writing a paper on the Kurds at the time, and I used it as epigraph. It's summed up US foreign policy in the middle east for years before then and years after:

The Kurds are in the way again,
And so, to our dismay again,
If we begin a fray again,
As it appears we may again,
It seems we must betray again
The Kurds: They’re in the way again.

posted by zachlipton at 8:23 PM on December 20, 2018 [102 favorites]

McConnell sounding worried but continuing to excel as the gravedigger for American democracy is just another day ending in "y", as far as I can tell.

To all replies re: Mattis' nickname: it was an ill-chosen throwaway line and I apologize. Doesn't change my basic point that the man has said some appallingly militant shit over the years including "it's fun to shoot some people", and that he pulled classic "just following orders" on the border situation this year. Even in the best case scenario where he thought he was ultimately serving a higher cause by continuing to protect America from Trump to the extent he was able, that's still super not-great behavior. The best I can say about him is that (paraphrasing A Few Good Men) while he's never been the person I wanted on that wall, I did in fact need him on that wall. At least while Trump is commander in chief.
posted by Ryvar at 8:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [5 favorites]

"Increasingly isolated" is old and busted, e.g. LA Times: Trump Increasingly Isolated As Aides Leave, Friends Flip and Investigations Advance

"Increasingly lawless" is the new hotness, viz. WaPo's Greg Sargent: Trump’s Island of Support Is Shrinking. He Will Grow Increasingly Lawless.

Trump’s mounting legal travails and his increasingly unhinged demands for victories like the wall — ones that will thrill his #MAGAhatter base and no one else — may well grow more tightly intertwined as narrative lines. As the former leads Trump to increasingly fall back on his base for support, he’ll need the latter to keep his voters energized, which means keeping them persuaded he’s “winning.”[…]

In a sense, Republicans are following what some European center-right parties are doing in the face of rising anti-immigrant populism: Adopting an accommodationist stance. As Shadi Hamid explains, this entails “meeting the far right halfway” on the ugly cultural dimensions of this populism — making peace, albeit in careful tones, with its overt treatment of immigration and multiculturalism and ethnic minorities as constituting a “problem” that must be “solved.”[…]

But here’s a prediction: It will be increasingly difficult for Republicans to frame all of these things as the true rule of law position. We have already seen this fail: The very fact that Republicans went all in with Trump’s campaign depiction of destitute migrant families as criminal invaders — and Democrats as their lawless enablers — helped produce the GOP midterm elections bloodbath.[…]

If ongoing probes bear fruit, Trump will double down on his immigration demands to keep his base in line. Republicans will cast that as the pro-rule of law stance. In reality, support for the investigations revealing the true depths of Trump’s corruption and lawlessness, and resistance to his cruel and arbitrary immigration policies, will constitute the true rule of law positions.

That's as optimistic a case for pessimism as I've encountered.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:30 PM on December 20, 2018 [6 favorites]

Outgoing Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri has done a couple of interesting exit interviews:

Senator Claire McCaskill on Losing Missouri and the Politics of Purity - The Daily audio interview, NYTimes
As she wraps up life as senator, McCaskill forecasts deadlock over health care, border wall - St. Louis Public Radio audio interview & article:
The battle over the wall is part of the immigration fight that McCaskill says has helped Republicans build a huge edge among many rural voters who have been frustrated for decades over their economic decline. “Without question, the largest public-policy problem facing this country for the next 10-20 years is what do we do with the workers who have been displaced by technology,’’ McCaskill said, referring to the wave of rural factories that have closed over the last 30 years. Trump, she said, “convinced (rural voters) that it wasn’t the microchip that was the problem. It was Mexicans.”

posted by flug at 8:31 PM on December 20, 2018 [7 favorites]

over at the washington post, stopped clock jennifer rubin says some very anodyne, ordinary things on this, a very unremarkable day

I would suggest that three bipartisan steps are essential.

First, Mattis and other former national security officials should testify in open hearings in the House next year to lay out their concerns about Trump’s fitness and threat to national security. If they have not already done so, they should lay out their concerns to the special counsel about Trump’s reflexive support for Russian objectives.

Second, Congress must reassert its sole authority to wage war, denying Trump the legitimacy to unilaterally launch first strikes. In addition, it is essential to subpoena the translator’s notes from Helsinki to determine what, if any, pledges Trump made to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Finally, it is time for Senate Republicans to seriously consider removing Trump in the event the House moves to impeach. Trump is a menace to our democracy and national security; unless and until Republicans recognize this and express a willingness to remove him, Trump may do untold damage during the time he has left in office. Supporting his reelection is entirely out of the question.

posted by murphy slaw at 8:35 PM on December 20, 2018 [47 favorites]

Shaken, saddened, scared: Washington erupts over Mattis resignation (Nicole Gaouette, CNN)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:39 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

Well, let's see if it's Indictment Solstice.

As I posted not knowing the megathread had moved: the darkness around the motivation of the executive branch -- viewing the actions without considering the motivation is scary enough -- may give way to some kind of transparency, or at least an attempt at it. But not quite yet.

The shit you do when you think you'll get away with it is different from the shit you do when you hear the sirens from a distance.
posted by holgate at 9:09 PM on December 20, 2018 [5 favorites]

Frum is bad, but he identified Trump’s appeal at the start.
posted by Apocryphon at 9:12 PM on December 20, 2018

Suggested rules for the Democratic primary debates (Alexandra Petri, WaPo)

I read the phrase “Democrats will hold at least a dozen presidential primary debates starting in June 2019 and running through April 2020,” and a little something in me died. I think it might have been hope. I did not know that the thing was there until it gave a horrible shriek and ceased to move. I understand that this pales in comparison to the, I want to say, 800 (?) — it might have been 753 — debates of the previous cycle, but it is still an awful lot.

As I understand them, the debates (and, indeed, the primary process in general) are supposed to start as early as possible so that, where previously you thought there were many potentially acceptable or even exciting candidates for the highest office in the land, you might at your leisure discover exactly why they are all vile, problematic boils.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:14 PM on December 20, 2018 [17 favorites]

If anything is going to change a Republican lawmaker’s mind about Impeachment, it’s going to be their wealthy donors, who are losing fortunes because of the idiocy of President Chaos, threatening to pull their future funding. And near-retirement Republicans who see their 401K plans losing a quarter of their value.

I took a brief trip to a deep-red part of Ohio a couple months ago and overheard two older men chatting at a diner. The one guy said something like, "well, I wish he would stop tweeting dumbass things... but I look at my portfolio and what's not to love?"

know what's fucked up? I was in my early 20s when the last recession hit, but I am actually hoping for another recession to really throw a wrench in the works before the 2020 elections. I'm hoping for that because I don't know if there is anything else that could finally, finally break the back of the Republican Party.
posted by Vic Morrow's Personal Vietnam at 9:23 PM on December 20, 2018 [16 favorites]

I don't know if there is anything else that could finally, finally break the back of the Republican Party.

i used to hope for this, too, but if the last two years have taught us anything, it's that you can't break the back of an invertebrate
posted by murphy slaw at 9:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [120 favorites]

I think a recession is quite likely before the election.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:26 PM on December 20, 2018 [9 favorites]

This is somewhat off topic, but I post it here as a bittersweet salve to everyone on this incredibly stressful day:

The final "Hamildrop" of the year is a remix of "One Last Time" featuring Christopher Jackson, Bebe Winans... and Barack Obama
posted by Rhaomi at 9:30 PM on December 20, 2018 [30 favorites]

Following up: the "Blob" -- the foreign-policy / national-security establishment in DC, which crosses party lines -- has plenty of culpability for the past couple of decades, but it is also fairly transparent about its policy goals: American prosperity and safety relies upon dependable alliances, soft power most of the time, and hard power when needed. That goes all the way back to George Kennan. Mattis belongs to the military side of that policy tradition. His resignation letter essentially says that those days are gone unless you want to do something about it.
posted by holgate at 9:31 PM on December 20, 2018 [7 favorites]

The final "Hamildrop" of the year is a remix of "One Last Time" featuring Christopher Jackson, Bebe Winans... and Barack Obama

It won't surprise longterm politics-threads readers to learn that I've seen Hamilton more than once, both during the Obama Administration and the Trump Administration. And one thing that stood out to me is that this song, "One Last Time" made me sad for what we were losing during the final year of Obama's term, but it made me unexpectedly angry seeing it during the Trump era. A song about public service and striving to serve to the best of your abilities is downright frustrating when sung against the background of somebody so out to enrich himself that he was surprised to discover 100 days after becoming President that the job "involves heart."

And after the day we've had today, hearing Obama read "forty-five years of my life dedicated to its service with an upright zeal" leaves me furious at the man who has never spent one day considering the notion of service, and hearing him read of the retirement wish, denied to him, to "realize the sweet enjoyment of partaking in the midst of my fellow-citizens, the benign influence of good laws" is a gutpunch.
posted by zachlipton at 9:35 PM on December 20, 2018 [53 favorites]

Here's the original moose-and-squirrel DHS "Walls work" article, with minimal use of articles and maximum fluffing of the prez: https://web.archive.org/web/20181212224326/https://www.dhs.gov/news/2018/12/12/walls-work. What's going on here? Are there so many Russians trudging around the white house that other cabinet members have picked up their speech patterns? Was this satire? A Russian intern? It's not the most odious thing that has come out of this administration, but it certainly points to a lack of institutional substance.
posted by morspin at 9:45 PM on December 20, 2018 [4 favorites]

@JBWolfsthal (Obama National Security Council senior director who directed nuclear and nonproliferation policy): This should scare everyone. Mattis has inserted himself into the nuclear weapons chain of command and reassured Senators for @GOP and @DNC that he could manage @realDonaldTrump dangerous nuclear impulses. This greatly increases risks of nuclear use.

The linked thread goes into more detail on the how, which honestly leaves a lot of questions about Mattis's duty to warn given his apparent assessment of the President, and I'd highly recommend not reading it before bed.
posted by zachlipton at 9:47 PM on December 20, 2018 [8 favorites]

It's big, it's heavy, it's tall.
it's wall, wall!
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 9:56 PM on December 20, 2018 [43 favorites]

Looking at it from the other side: the White House occupant likes big beautiful armies and military parades and spending lots of money on them, but doesn't really want them involved in the current messy conflicts. That's at least as much a recipe for bad things as being involved in messy conflicts.

There's a reason why standing armies were considered a threat to liberty in the late 1700s, and why there's constitutional two-year limit on appropriations. (The precedent comes from the UK, where maintaining a standing army in peacetime required parliamentary approval.)
posted by holgate at 10:14 PM on December 20, 2018 [1 favorite]

There's a reason why standing armies were considered a threat to liberty in the late 1700s, and why there's constitutional two-year limit on appropriations.

As one of your vice-presidents once said:

A standing army is like a standing member. It's an excellent assurance of domestic tranquility, but a dangerous temptation to foreign adventure.

posted by chappell, ambrose at 10:22 PM on December 20, 2018 [38 favorites]

I find I am shockingly unprepared to handle a US governed entirely by skin suits full of bees.

Cockroaches. Bees are cooperative and useful insects.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:32 PM on December 20, 2018 [51 favorites]

And matriarchal and communist.
posted by Scattercat at 10:34 PM on December 20, 2018 [52 favorites]

The only palace intrigue I’m particularly interested in, of which Mattis is related to, is our surrender in Syria, thus allowing Erdogan to commit ethnic cleansing against the Kurds. My heart aches for them. Knowing full well what the Kurds in the cantons of Northern Syria were trying to accomplish, I can’t even imagine what unbearable tragedy will befall them, especially the women. I have no more words. I hate America.
posted by gucci mane at 10:34 PM on December 20, 2018 [47 favorites]

The only palace intrigue I’m particularly interested in, of which Mattis is related to, is our surrender in Syria,

End of Mattis' resignation letter para 3, Mattis refers to the "Defeat ISIS Coalition", which is a real thing The Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS: Partners ( Dept of State ) , which has a [Would You Like to Know More?] leading to The Global Coalition against Daesh

The Global Coalition against Daesh was formed in September 2014 and is unique in its membership, scope and commitment. Together, the Global Coalition is committed to degrading and ultimately defeating Daesh.

The Coalition’s 79 members are committed to tackling Daesh on all fronts, to dismantling its networks and countering its global ambitions. Beyond the military campaign in Iraq and Syria, the Coalition is committed to: tackling Daesh’s financing and economic infrastructure; preventing the flow of foreign terrorist fighters across borders; supporting stabilisation and the restoration of essential public services to areas liberated from Daesh; and countering the group’s propaganda

100% Speculation. This Coalition was something Mattis cared about, and thought made a difference, so Trump's "Mission Accomplished" moment, shitting on people Mattis may personally know, ( in addition to leaving the Kurds out to dry, AGAIN ) was too much to bear.

I guess the "Don't contradict the military's C-I-C" is burned into him too deep to go full-25th Amendment, though.

110% Speculation. US Marine Mueller and US Marine Mattis, maybe the traditions still mean something, and Mattis knows something about February...

HOLY SHIT. Mueller may submit report to attorney general as soon as mid-February, say sources

Edit: rhizome figured this out earlier...
posted by mikelieman at 10:54 PM on December 20, 2018 [5 favorites]

This Coalition was something Mattis cared about, and thought made a difference, so Trump's "Mission Accomplished" moment, shitting on people Mattis may personally know, ( in addition to leaving the Kurds out to dry, AGAIN ) was too much to bear.

I think Mattis simply has taken a history class and knows that a The Dutch Leaving Africa strategy will make things not-good, even more not-good than they are currently slated to become, and for generations.

Trump's idea of battle strategy is to turn the board sideways and exclaim, "now we're playing Frontgammon!"
posted by rhizome at 11:11 PM on December 20, 2018 [23 favorites]

I'm wary of any reporting about Mueller's supposed timetable or intentions, because the sourcing tends to come from witnesses or their lawyers. However, NBC's report has a shared byline of Pete Williams (DOJ / SCOTUS) and Ken Dilanian (nat-sec / intel). That's pretty heavyweight, and "government officials and others familiar with the situation" is stronger attribution than usual. I'm guessing they pooled their sources, which may include Congressional ones, and it points to something like Marcy Wheeler's suggestion back in October that any report outside of indictments would be a vehicle to transmit grand jury information to the House Judiciary Committee.
posted by holgate at 11:29 PM on December 20, 2018 [3 favorites]

There needs to be consequences for surrendering in Syria. We’re giving Erdogan free reign to slaughter our allies in a genocide. ”Turkey said Kurdish militants east of the Euphrates in Syria “will be buried in their ditches when the time comes”, after President Donald Trump began what will be a total withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria.” Alongside giving Putin a strategic advantage, this is full-blown surrendering. I’m no fan of US troops being in any country, but I’m especially not a fan of ethnic cleansing whether we’re doing it or another country is doing it. Full stop. Turkey is gloating about annihilating an ethnic minority and burying them in mass graves.

It’s just incredible to me that any of this is happening. I wake up everyday thinking to myself “this can’t be real.” I know that we’ve been party to terrible, inhumane actions throughout our history, and have supported and propped up dictatorships, but it’s hard to wrap my head around the concreteness of our current reality versus the abstractness of history.
posted by gucci mane at 12:15 AM on December 21, 2018 [58 favorites]

I ventured, alone, into the fetid swamps that make up the comments section of a right-wing blog here in New Zealand. The most recommended comment on the Mattis resignation was something to the effect that no matter how bad Trump is, the Clintons would have been worse. We all know that is how they, i.e. Trumpists, think, but when you see it live in the field as it were, it is nonetheless still shocking. I mean, is that all they have? It could have been worse? The sheer irrationality of it all stuns me. But as has been noted here many times, this irrationality is a feature, not a bug. Trumpists are willfully ignorant. That is, they choose, deliberately and carefully, to be ill-informed and ignorant.

I so well remember when Sarah Palin railed against the government for spending money on fruit fly research. It would have taken less than 30 seconds for her, or any of her staff, to search the Internet to understand the importance of fruit flies in scientific research. It wasn't laziness or an unwillingness to learn about this issue that prevented Palin from finding out about fruit flies: it was that she chose to be ignorant. She was willfully so.

If you are informed and knowledgeable about an issue, then you are a liberal elitist who doesn't listen or care, about the problems of 'ordinary' people. You are the problem precisely because you are knowledgeable.

Thus with Trump and the Mattis resignation. To keep arguing that however mad and bad Trump is, his Presidency is preferable to some imagined world of a Clinton Presidency is insane.

I get that politics, like football, can be tribal. Sure. We choose our sides and stick with them. But arguing that the present chaos in American politics would have been even worse under a different President, that takes a form of madness and ignorance I really don't understand.
posted by vac2003 at 12:22 AM on December 21, 2018 [51 favorites]

A hopeful thought: Mattis is one of the Cabinet members who can vote to trigger an Article 25 removal of Trump, right? By announcing he's resigning but not for over 2 months, he may be broadly and publicly hinting to the other officials with a vote that he'd be happy to help organize such a move.

This makes even more sense if he has some inside information about damaging information (or reports or indictments) that might come out during that time.
posted by msalt at 12:27 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Well, at least it's not the Syrian government that's making those threats. The Turkish government ostensibly still has to listen to its erstwhile allies. If they actually try to commit war crimes then Turkey will be booted out of NATO, goodbye any potential EU ambitions, hello sanctions.
posted by Apocryphon at 12:32 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Sure, there was lots of passive-aggressive shade in Mattis’ letter, but it was still full of language about how proud he was to serve and what Trump “deserves”

I think there’s a crucial difference in that paraphrase and what Mattis actually wrote, that the president has a right to have [not "deserves"] a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with [his] on these and other subjects. "Deserves" sounds more like Mattis admitting there may be some merit to Trump’s agenda but irreconcilable differences bla bla bla, when he’s really only going so far as admitting that Trump has the bare right to set the agenda.

And regarding his being proud to serve, it’s all about the country and men and women in uniform. Never once is he claiming pride in having served the president or the administration.
posted by xigxag at 12:33 AM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

Since the coup, Turkey must now realise there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of EU membership, so NATO membership and sanctions are the only thing standing between the Kurds fighting Daesh without the presence of their token US support.
posted by Wilder at 1:03 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

The mystery for us now is whether any mechanism remains to punish Trump for his crimes. The conspirators caught early, e.g. Papadopoulos and Cohen, got jokes of sentences compared to what they would have gotten if they were arrested while being Black and smoking pot. Flynn, who sold us out to both the Russians and the Turks, is on travel release so that he can go with his family on an overseas Christmas trip. No Trump has been indicted for any of the crimes they’ve committed in the past 30 years, and they keep committing new crimes with an alacrity that convinces me they believe they are untouchable.

Sure, the forthcoming Democratic House can impeach, but the Republican Senate won’t convict under any circumstances.

the only thing that will feel right is like fairy tale punishments. They all get turned to stone, or whatever.
posted by The Whelk at 2:04 AM on December 21, 2018 [35 favorites]

I know that we’ve been party to terrible, inhumane actions throughout our history, and have supported and propped up dictatorships, but it’s hard to wrap my head around the concreteness of our current reality versus the abstractness of history.

Just like slavery and Jim Crow, this "history" isn't abstract to the millions of people who have suffered from it (and continue to suffer from it).

And we're not even talking ancient history here. The Iraq War, with its very real death toll in the millions, started just 15 years ago. Obama murdered a teenage US citizen just 8 years ago while Trump murdered his 8 year old sister last year. Yemen has become a very concrete hellscape of death and starvation thanks to the Saudi fighter-bombers that Hillary Clinton sold as Secretary of State just 6 years ago.

And some context to how America has treated "our Kurdish allies": the US provided material support to Saddam, even when he was bombing the Kurds with chemical weapons.

The Reagan administration did not stop aiding Iraq after receiving reports affirming the use of poison gas on Kurdish civilians.

Joost R. Hiltermann says that when the Iraqi military turned its chemical weapons on the Kurds during the war, killing approximately 5,000 people in the town of Halabja and injuring thousands more, the Reagan administration actually sought to obscure Iraqi leadership culpability by suggesting, inaccurately, that the Iranians may have carried out the attack.

Thank goodness for adults in the room.
posted by Ouverture at 3:34 AM on December 21, 2018 [33 favorites]

SakuraK: No Trump has been indicted for any of the crimes they’ve committed in the past 30 years, and they keep committing new crimes with an alacrity that convinces me they believe they are untouchable.

Sure, the forthcoming Democratic House can impeach, but the Republican Senate won’t convict under any circumstances.

Of course, "conviction" after impeachment only means removal from office, and thus isn't really a punishment at all; the point is just to save the country from any especially bad/criminal/etc leader. It's never possible for Congress to sentence anyone to prison.

So the presumptive Republican unwillingness to get rid of Individual 1 is totally separate from the question of whether he ever spends time behind bars, except insofar as being president may save from him that for the present (and of course the possibility of a pardon from a Republican successor, if it comes to that).

Also, I wouldn't infer a sense of untouchability from the boldness; they could simply feel they are in too deep to quit the life of crime now. Even if, say, Eric were worried about getting caught, would he have the nerve to raise those fears with the others? In effect, turning his back on the family and what it stands for? No. So they all trudge forward, with tunnel vision. That's how you prevent yourself from seeing that the emperor has no clothes.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 4:05 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

Department of light relief:

Britain's Channel 4 has just announced that it's alternative Christmas message this year will be delivered by the actor Danny Dyer. As you can see from this preview, he will use the broadcast to call Donald Trump "an absolute melt", which urbandictionary.com defines as "an absolute complete fucking idiot" and "a person who has no balls, needs to man up, gives in to anything".

Dyer became a national treasure in Britain this year when he repeatedly called former Prime Minister David Cameron "a twat" on live television. Chances are it was that interview which persuaded Channel 4 to give him the Christmas Day gig.
posted by Paul Slade at 4:07 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

Trump made a very strong point of "owning" a government shutdown just a few days ago. Now he tweets: "Senator Mitch McConnell should fight for the Wall and Border Security as hard as he fought for anything. He will need Democrat votes, but as shown in the House, good things happen. If enough Dems don’t vote, it will be a Democrat Shutdown! House Republicans were great yesterday!
posted by stonepharisee at 4:07 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

From yesterday, which would have been big news on its own…

ABC: US Indicts Alleged Chinese Hackers For 'Unrelenting Effort' to Steal Tech

In a warning to Beijing, Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein said the U.S. and its allies “know what China is doing, why they’re doing it” and sometimes even “who is at the keyboard” while the alleged thefts are going on.[…]

The indictment, unsealed Thursday, accuses Zhu Hua and Zhang Shilong of being members of a hacking group known as APT10, also known as Stone Panda and MenuPass.

“From at least in or about 2006 up to and including or about 2018, members of the APT10 Group, including [the defendants] conducted extensive campaigns of global intrusions into computer systems,” the indictment said. The Justice Department says the pair worked for a technology company and “acted in association with” Chinese state security.

The Justice Department said that through the “technology theft campaign” that reached into companies and organizations in several U.S. states, APT10 “stole hundreds of gigabytes of sensitive data” from a “diverse array” of industries, from space and satellite technology to pharmaceuticals.

WaPo goes into further detail: U. S. Charges Chinese Hackers In Alleged Theft of Vast Trove Of Confidential Data In 12 Countries

The United States and four of its closest allies on Thursday blamed China for a 12-year campaign of cyberattacks that vacuumed up technology and trade secrets from corporate computers in 12 countries, affecting almost every major global industry.

The coordinated announcements in five capitals marked the Trump administration’s broadest anti-China initiative to date, yet it fell short of even stronger measures that officials had planned.

During debate, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin blocked a proposal to impose financial sanctions on those implicated in the hacking, according to five sources familiar with the matter. Two administration officials said Mnuchin acted out of fear that sanctions would interfere with U.S.-China trade talks.[…]

U.S. allies echoed the Justice Department action, signaling a growing consensus that Beijing is flouting international norms in its bid to become the world’s predominant economic and technological power.

In the capitals of the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, ministers knocked China for violating a 2015 pledge — offered by Chinese President Xi Jinping in the White House’s Rose Garden and repeated at international gatherings such as the Group of 20 summit — to refrain from hacking for commercial gain.

“This campaign is one of the most significant and widespread cyber intrusions against the U.K. and allies uncovered to date, targeting trade secrets and economies around the world,” British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said in a statement.

In a highly informative thread, BBC China correspondent has their response: "More from #China Foreign Ministry's Spokeswoman Hua Chunyin today: These are "groundless accusations" from the #USA relying on "un-named sources" and "incorrect numbers". She said, unlike Washington, "China has never supported anyone in cyber espionage". Really?"

News just won't stop happening.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:15 AM on December 21, 2018 [13 favorites]

Drilling in Refuge Is a Small Step Closer to Reality

The Interior Department on Thursday took a key step toward allowing oil and gas drilling in a pristine wildlife refuge in Arctic Alaska, putting forth proposals it said would protect the animals there but that would end decades of environmental protections.

The four possible plans, which would determine what parts of the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge could be opened to drilling, were included in a draft environmental report prepared by the Bureau of Land Management.

....

“This isn’t a legitimate effort to look at how to avoid impacts,” said Adam Kolton, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League. “This is a race against a political clock, to get leases before a new administration takes office.”

The report is open for public comment (see "draft environmental report" link) for 45 days, until Feb 11, 2019.
posted by solotoro at 4:52 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

James Mattis Is Out; What Comes Next?
(The New Yorker)

What happens now? It’s tempting to think that Trump, given his fondness for men in uniform, might reappoint another officer, and maybe another officer in the mold of Jim Mattis. There are plenty of retired generals with years of combat experience standing at the ready. But I wouldn’t bet on it. In pulling out of Syria now—so abruptly, so mindlessly—Trump has demonstrated just what he thinks of what America’s role in the world should be: minimal, transactional, and value-free.

And he’s the boss.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:08 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

‘A morning of alarm’: Mattis departure sends shock waves abroad (WaPo)

The anxiety sweeping the globe Friday reflected the head-spinning news of the previous 48 hours. Not only was Mattis leaving, he was implicitly rebuking the president on his way out for undermining U.S. alliances and failing to recognize the threat posed by America’s enemies.

... “A morning of alarm in Europe” was how Carl Bildt, co-chairman of the European Council on Foreign Relations and formerly prime minister of Sweden, described the reaction to news of the defense secretary’s exit.

... The concern felt in Berlin was no less pronounced in Paris, where François Heisbourg, a former French diplomatic adviser, wrote on Twitter that Mattis had stabilized a dysfunctional administration and “helped preserve the Western alliance system.” “Believe me, America’s allies are already reviewing all options,” wrote Heisbourg, who is president of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“This is big bad,” he added.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:19 AM on December 21, 2018 [21 favorites]

I usually call him Condor Freedomdork, but even a broken libertarian clock...

And America’s ability to constructively debate the president’s actions is not helped by the fact that his corrupt political allies, dubious campaign behavior, opaque business empire, and bizarre behavior all raise the possibility that he is being blackmailed to act in the interest of Russia, Turkey or both.

Even so, disdain for Trump and excessive deference to the foreign-policy establishment has caused much of the news media to err in its coverage—to treat the risky, costly, unconstitutional policy of maintaining a troop presence in Syria indefinitely as though it is obviously best, and to fail to treat the withdrawal of troops as a legitimate, reasonable position, even though it fulfills a campaign promise, enjoys popular support, remedies ongoing illegality, and has many plausible arguments that recommend it over quite unappealing alternatives.

posted by Ouverture at 5:23 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

It was a ways upthread, but: Rumors are swirling that Tom Cotton may be [Mattis'] nominated replacement.

Rumors have swirled about Tom Cotton being nominated for CIA director, and then for DHS secretary, over most of Trump's term. In the 2018 elections, Republicans in Arkansas held every House seat, and the Republican governor won easily. The Trump administration is a revolving door. If Cotton wanted a job, and Trump wanted to give him one, I think it would've happened by now.

Tom Cotton, like some other Republican politicians (e.g. Marco Rubio), is a fairly smart guy whose moral core, to the degree that he has one, is that he wants to be President. The highest percentage play, for somebody like that, is to support Trump's policies, but try not to go out on any limbs, and definitely don't get in bed with the guy. I don't expect Tom Cotton to take a job in the Trump administration.
posted by box at 5:33 AM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

Trump threatens government shutdown ‘will last for a very long time’ if Democrats oppose House bill that includes border wall money (WaPo)

President Trump on Friday threatened that a partial government shutdown would last “for a very long time” if Congress does not meet his demand Friday for billions in funding for his long-promised border wall in a stopgap spending measure.

In a spate of morning tweets, Trump sought to pin blame on Democrats for a potential shutdown even though he said last week that he would proudly own one if lawmakers did not provide at least $5 billion toward his marquee campaign promise.

And he suggested that Senate rules should be changed if necessary so that Republicans could pass the bill without any Democratic support.

... Trump’s warning came ahead of a midnight deadline for the president and Congress to come to terms on a spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown that would affect funding for roughly 25 percent of the federal agencies whose budgets rely on Congress.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:33 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

Pew Research has some year end perspective in the form of data. There is some good news for the future demographically, amidst all the horrible peaks of nazi/inequality/injustice.
posted by Harry Caul at 5:34 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

‘I’m OK with a shutdown’: Inside the chaos of the House GOP’s last days (Rachel Bade)

Trump gave a green light to his party’s hard-liners, and the House Republican majority ends with Washington barreling into another crisis of its own making.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:36 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

And he suggested that Senate rules should be changed if necessary so that Republicans could pass the bill without any Democratic support.

Fine. Please do this now so when/if Democrats ever retake the Senate we won't have to go through the ridiculous hand wringing in the media over preserving the filibuster, and won't have to convince our sniveling worm of a Leader Chuck Schumer to actually do it.

I'll trade 5 billion for the wall for DC and PR statehood right now. And single payer. And 2 new SCOTUS seats. Please Ba'er Trump!
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:38 AM on December 21, 2018 [22 favorites]

Mattis Leaving Might Be The Most Important Trump Administration Exit Yet (538.com)

Every time some high-level member of the Trump administration leaves, the staff at FiveThirtyEight debate whether it’s a big deal — and therefore whether we should cover it. Sometimes the consequences of these departures are over-hyped. Sometimes the consequences aren’t clear, so there’s not much to do but speculate. But Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis’s resignation on Thursday is a big deal. A really big deal.

Summary:

1. Mattis quit in protest, naming Trump’s Russia policies along the way.

2. Secretary of Defense is a hugely powerful job, and Mattis lent the Trump administration gravitas in foreign policy.

3. Mattis’s resignation is the latest sign of a fissure between Trump and the Republican establishment.

4. Mattis’s exit fits a pattern of Trump getting rid of internal rivals and promoting loyalists.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:46 AM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

Obamacare sign-ups surge in final tally (Vox)

2019 enrollment fell just slightly behind 2018 after a strong final week.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:52 AM on December 21, 2018 [21 favorites]

3. Mattis’s resignation is the latest sign of a fissure between Trump and the Republican establishment.

See also: "Surely This."
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:56 AM on December 21, 2018 [37 favorites]

Is anyone tracking guest appearances on Fox News to see who is auditioning for secretary of defense?
posted by peeedro at 6:04 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

‘I had no idea how beautiful the border is’: Beto O’Rourke solicits photos of habitats at risk from Trump’s wall; WaPo, Megan Flynn
posted by mcdoublewide at 6:05 AM on December 21, 2018 [19 favorites]

'We don’t have to yell’: Wolf Blitzer tells Stephen Miller to ‘calm down’ during border wall interview (Allyson Chiu, WaPo)

When White House senior policy adviser Stephen Miller went on CNN for a live interview Thursday night, Wolf Blitzer instantly took notice of his guest’s appearance.

But it wasn’t Miller’s widely-discussed hairline that caught the anchor’s attention. Filling the screen above a news chyron that read in all capital letters, “DEFENSE SECRETARY QUITS IN PROTEST OVER TRUMP MIDDLE EAST POLICY AS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LOOMS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS TANK,” Miller had a broad smile across his face.

“I see you smiling, but right now it doesn’t look like there’s a lot to smile about," Blitzer said. "Very serious issues.” […]

"This president’s been very clear about the fact he will defend America like no one else,” Miller said, talking faster and louder as he went on. "He will have a military power second to none. He will kill terrorists wherever and whenever he has to."

Miller signed off the interview with "I'll be in my bunk." [fake]
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:06 AM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

'We don’t have to yell’: Wolf Blitzer tells Stephen Miller to ‘calm down’ during border wall interview (Allyson Chiu, WaPo)

I watched this, and I'm always amazed that the Tech Director doesn't have the audio guy put a limiter on Miller's mic and ride it down whenever he tries to talk over the host.
posted by mikelieman at 6:24 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

This is just so nuts. It's like someone asked Putin what he wants for Christmas and he just rattled off a crazy wishlist like Americans out of Syria, hell Afghanistan too. Cripple the American Department of Defense. And fuck it, just shut down the American government.

And then Santa was all YOU GOT IT BRO.
posted by lazaruslong at 6:28 AM on December 21, 2018 [93 favorites]

Trump threatens government shutdown ‘will last for a very long time’ if Democrats oppose House bill that includes border wall money

So. General strike, then?
posted by contraption at 6:41 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

If they actually try to commit war crimes then Turkey will be booted out of NATO, goodbye any potential EU ambitions, hello sanctions.

They already have been committing war crimes and getting away with it, see for e.g. the attack on Afrin in January this year. As well as creating ~167,000 refugees:

Between 385 and 510 civilians have been reported killed since the operation started.[51][57][61] Other war crime allegations include the mutilation of a female corpse by Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (TFSA) fighters,[80] the killing of civilians due to indiscriminate shelling by Turkish forces,[81] the use of chemical gas by the Turkish Army,[82] and the indiscriminate shooting of refugees fleeing from the conflict area into Turkey by Turkish border guards.

[wikipedia]

The main issue with the U.S. withdrawal will be the the same as in Gulf War 1, the lack of air-defences will allow the use of attack helicopters [twitter thread about their use in Afrin] against the Kurds. And, as noted in this video by one of the foreign volunteer fighters, they can use their rental-terrorists to commit the worst atrocities to provide the minimum required sliver of deniability. (The video is is time-linked, but worth watching in its entirety as it also describes the remarkable modern and egalitarian society that the Kurds have been creating and evolving.)

It's hard to see that it's anything other than Trump paying off Turkey to keep them silent about Khashoggi murder with potentially hundreds (if not thousands) more deaths. Whatever the Saudis have on (or are paying) him must be big.
posted by Buntix at 6:44 AM on December 21, 2018 [14 favorites]

Doktor Zed: From yesterday, which would have been big news on its own…

ABC: US Indicts Alleged Chinese Hackers For 'Unrelenting Effort' to Steal Tech
In a warning to Beijing, Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein said the U.S. and its allies “know what China is doing, why they’re doing it” and sometimes even “who is at the keyboard” while the alleged thefts are going on.[…]

The indictment, unsealed Thursday, accuses Zhu Hua and Zhang Shilong of being members of a hacking group known as APT10, also known as Stone Panda and MenuPass.

US and allies: New hacks mean China broke 2015 economic espionage pact -- China hacked more than 245 companies and agencies, including US Navy and NASA. (Sean Gallagher, Dec. 20, 2018)

In a press conference this morning, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray announced indictments of two Chinese men connected with China's Ministry of State Security and the hacking group known as APT 10. The two are accused of being responsible for a recent wave of attacks on managed service providers (MSPs) that ultimately targeted both companies and government agencies in 12 countries, including the US. The two are also accused of stealing the Social Security numbers and other personal data of more than 100,000 Navy service members.
...
The actions, Rosenstein said, are in direct violation of China's 2015 agreement with the US to end economic cyber-espionage and other commitments China made to members of the G-20 economic group and the world community. "In 2015, China promised to stop stealing trade secrets and other confidential business information through computer hacking with the intent of providing competitive advantages to companies or sectors," Rosenstein said. "The activity alleged in this indictment violates the commitment that China made to members of the international community."

posted by filthy light thief at 6:47 AM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

Bipartisan carbon-tax bill introduced in the Senate offers glimpse at future -- Senate bill is different from House bill introduced last month. (Megan Geuss for Ars Technica, Dec. 20, 2018)

On Wednesday, Senators Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.) introduced a Senate bill to impose a carbon tax on major industrial carbon emitters throughout the US. The Senate bill is a version of a bipartisan House bill that was introduced in late November. Although most analysis agrees that the bills don't stand a chance of becoming law, they are important as concrete examples of avenues that US lawmakers are taking to explore bipartisan climate-change policy.

Bold moves from Flake, with one foot out the door and the clock ticking down on his term. Still, better than sitting on his hands.
posted by filthy light thief at 6:49 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Longform: A New South Rising: This Time for Real (Bob Moser, American Prospect)

But the demise of the Blue Dogs did not spell doom for progressive prospects down South. Quite the contrary: What had actually, and helpfully, died was only the Democrats’ antiquated formula for winning elections in Dixie—the stubborn notion that only white, Clinton-style compromisers could ever hope to carry elections in the region. In the post–civil rights era, the formerly insular Sun Belt South had gradually—and then rapidly—transformed into the most racially and culturally diverse region in the country. But its politics had lagged behind, partly because the Democratic Party still clung to its old Southern stereotypes, convinced despite mounting setbacks that recapturing white Reagan Democrats was still the magic formula for success in a state like Georgia or Texas.

Southern progressives saw it differently: Instead of helping Democrats win, the endless chase for crossover conservative white voters had convinced millions of African Americans, Latinos, Asians, and young, liberal white folk to sit out elections. “The Democrats couldn’t see our power, even if we did,” says LaTosha Brown, the Atlanta-based co-founder of Black Voters Matter. And so BVM, along with an array of groups dedicated to turning the South’s rising majority into a political movement—Voto Latino, Texas’s Jolt Initiative, Woke Vote, and BlackPAC, to name a few—set out to prove those Democrats wrong.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:11 AM on December 21, 2018 [51 favorites]

Trump made a very strong point of "owning" a government shutdown just a few days ago. Now he tweets: "Senator Mitch McConnell should fight for the Wall and Border Security as hard as he fought for anything. He will need Democrat votes, but as shown in the House, good things happen. If enough Dems don’t vote, it will be a Democrat Shutdown! House Republicans were great yesterday!

Trump is very good at blaming minorities.
posted by jeremias at 7:12 AM on December 21, 2018 [34 favorites]

I'm always amazed that the Tech Director doesn't have the audio guy put a limiter on Miller's mic and ride it down whenever he tries to talk over the host.

More people are watching that clip than would be watching a clip titled "STEPHEN MILLER GETS SILENCED BY DIRECTOR".
posted by Etrigan at 7:15 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

The First Family of Fraud (Paul Waldman, American Prospect)

… But when we look back now and recall that there was actually a vigorous debate in the media in 2016 about whether not Donald Trump but Hillary Clinton was too corrupt to be president, the mind boggles.

That's because, as I've argued repeatedly for some time now, even as he ran for president it was obvious that Trump was not simply someone who ignored some inconvenient rules or regularly stretched the truth in his life's work of self-promotion. No, he may well be the single-most corrupt major business figure in America. Not so much because of the scale of his corruption—there are Wall Street bankers who pulled scams with bigger dollar amounts—but because of its variety, its sheer depravity, and the way it was woven into everything Trump did.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:18 AM on December 21, 2018 [38 favorites]

I'm always amazed that the Tech Director doesn't have the audio guy put a limiter on Miller's mic and ride it down whenever he tries to talk over the host.

More people are watching that clip than would be watching a clip titled "STEPHEN MILLER GETS SILENCED BY DIRECTOR".

The only way to win their game is not to play at all.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 7:21 AM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

So utterly predictable. Trump tweets: "The Democrats now own the shutdown!"
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:25 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

WaPo: Ethics officials said Whitaker should recuse from the Mueller probe, but his advisers told him not to, officials say. Whitaker will now be briefed on Mueller's investigation going forward, despite the advice of DOJ ethics officials.

Former Obama senior DAG counsel Eric Columbus:

Whitaker’s team wrongly claims no AG has ever recused to avoid an appearance of conflict. It’s actually happened at least 3 times:

1. Ashcroft in Valerie Plame leak investigation (h/t @nycsouthpaw)

2. Holder in John Edwards investigation.

3. Holder in AP leak investigation.

posted by Doktor Zed at 7:27 AM on December 21, 2018 [31 favorites]

So dumb. So much chaos by the toddler that his meeting with GOP today at the WH hasn't even passed protocol. Senators can't get in.
posted by Harry Caul at 7:47 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

I don’t see a resolution here that does not include Senate Dems caving on Wall funds. I hope smarter people than me do though!
posted by notyou at 7:52 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

More people are watching that clip than would be watching a clip titled "STEPHEN MILLER GETS SILENCED BY DIRECTOR".

I'm not suggesting that he duck Miller's audio, but rather that he takes the strident edge off of it. This is a minor issue overall considering CNN giving this nitwit a soapbox to stand on in the first place, and Blitzer's abdication of his responsibility to direct the discussion and not let Miller pontificate at length in the first place.

< /MediaAnalysys >
posted by mikelieman at 7:52 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

I don’t see a resolution here that does not include Senate Dems caving on Wall funds.

10 day shutdown followed by the Democratic House taking over in January. Pelosi passes a clean bill to reopen the government and the Senate passes it daring Trump to veto it. He either signs it, or vetos, and the Senate has the votes to override.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:58 AM on December 21, 2018 [75 favorites]

I don’t see a resolution here that does not include Senate Dems caving on Wall funds. I hope smarter people than me do though!

Democrats have zero reason to give in here, and the ones most likely to flip already lost their reelections (except Manchin).

Trump and the Republicans own this shutdown; and Trump always caves eventually.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:58 AM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

Whitaker’s team wrongly claims no AG has ever recused to avoid an appearance of conflict. It’s actually happened at least 3 times:

And Lynch kinda sorta partially recused herself (she said she would abide by whatever recommendation the FBI made) from the Hillary EMAILS investigation, which is why Comey was making announcements.

That was just about the appearance of a conflict too, because she had a conversation with Bill Clinton during the investigation, but Republicans flipped out about that conversation. I know "imagine if a Democrat did the things Trump does" is a tired trope, but it's just impossible not to keep noticing the double standard when they keep slapping us in the face with it.

(Lynch should have just actually recused herself. And Whitaker should recuse himself from planet earth.)
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:59 AM on December 21, 2018 [17 favorites]

10 day shutdown followed by the Democrat House taking over in January. Pelosi passed a clean bill to reopen the government and the Senate passes it daring Trump to veto it. He either signs it, or vetos, and the Senate has the votes to override.

And I can legit see McConnell* doing that, because he's undoubtedly pissed that Trump and Ryan (R-Invertebrate) fucked him on the way out the door for the holidays. Any idiot can see it's terrible optics for Republicans.

*Fuck Mitch McConnell
posted by leotrotsky at 8:00 AM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

Is this posture supposed to project strength and resolve? Asking for a friend.
posted by snortasprocket at 8:02 AM on December 21, 2018 [16 favorites]

Pelosi would also have to get about 85 Republicans to vote to override in the House, which may be the harder thing than the Senate, because the only reason the wall funding passed now is House Republicans wanted to say "fuck you" to Pelosi.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:02 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

The Atlantic: Four People Who Could Be the Next Defense Secretary

Gen. JACK KEANE (R)
Sen. TOM COTTON
Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM
Gen. DAVID PETRAEUS (R)

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:07 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

10 day shutdown followed by the Democrat House taking over in January. Pelosi passed a clean bill to reopen the government and the Senate passes it daring Trump to veto it. He either signs it, or vetos, and the Senate has the votes to override.

Exactly. Frame it as, "The Republicans want to waste billions of dollars of your money, and are offering the choice of wasting it on a wall, or on a government shutdown. We're here to stop their out-of-control spending on junk projects and political stunts."
posted by Autumnheart at 8:08 AM on December 21, 2018 [22 favorites]

I was in the Trump-always-eventually-caves camp... until now. It had seemed, even after the Nancy-Chuck meeting, that the outcome of this standoff was going to be: Trump continues fooling himself that his wall will happen, is happening, and already did happen (time is an illusion now), because of some Super Secret presidential ability to shift the funds around. After all, that's exactly how the previous shutdown got resolved, and he's not the sort of person who learns things.

But now I don't know, because certain elements of the base seem to be actually holding him accountable for this. (Important note: That would be the loudest of the deplorables, but not any kind of majority even of them. Poll after poll tells us that Trump voters consider the wall a mere symbol or bargaining chip, and Trump himself usually has the same perception. That's why the entire Senate was willing to pass a wall-free spending bill; not even the rightmost of those Republicans feel personally invested in it.)

All of a sudden, Fox and Friends has made this a thing, and the future of the federal budget really is in their hands. They, more than Individual-1, are the ones whose personalities require analysis now. Do they have the gumption to hold out literally forever? Will Jeanine Pirro come up with a teevee-shoutable solution? Stay tuned, denizens of hell
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:15 AM on December 21, 2018 [28 favorites]

4. Gen. DAVID PETRAEUS (R)

But his emails?
posted by Slothrup at 8:17 AM on December 21, 2018 [24 favorites]

4. Gen. DAVID PETRAEUS (R)

Petraeus retired from the Army in 2011 so he would require approval from both houses of congress to become Secretary of Defense. The National Security Act of 1947 requires ten years between service in the military and appointment as the secretary of defense. The only two waivers that have ever been granted were George Marshall in 1950 and James Mattis.
posted by peeedro at 8:18 AM on December 21, 2018 [13 favorites]

The Republicans want to waste billions of dollars of your money, and are offering the choice of wasting it on a wall, or on a government shutdown.

I'm not sure how the numbers actually compare but this seems like not-great framing. Given that choice (fund a wall or just light equivalent funds on fire for nothing) I think lots of people would pick wall, even if they don't really want wall or feel strongly about wall one way or the other.
posted by contraption at 8:19 AM on December 21, 2018

Well, there's a third choice, to not do either of those things, and not hold the American economy hostage to nonsense. Crazy idea, huh?
posted by Autumnheart at 8:20 AM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

Sen. TOM COTTON
Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM

They'd be fools to give up safe Senate seats for a job that'll:

1. likely last about 6 months and
2. could possibly get them indicted
posted by leotrotsky at 8:23 AM on December 21, 2018 [22 favorites]

"Last Adult" Watch (in an extension of the Trump-as-toddler journalistic cliché):

—Guardian: With Jim Mattis Gone, Has the Last Proverbial Adult Left the White House?
—Slate's Fred Kaplan: The Last Grown-Up Is Gone
—South China Morning Post: ‘Last adult’ James Mattis Leaves the Room: What Next For Asia?
—Vox: James Mattis, the Last “Adult” In the Trump Administration, Resigns As Defense Secretary
Counterpoint—Vox: There Never Were Any “Adults In the Room”

Meanwhile, with Time reporting the Pentagon "is in shock", Fox national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin says: “I am told to expect more resignations at the Pentagon in wake of Mattis. A senior US defense official tells me: 'Make no mistake - Mattis is resigning in protest over the President's national security policies,' a resignation based on 'principle.'”
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:23 AM on December 21, 2018 [12 favorites]

The National Security Act of 1947 requires ten years between service in the military and appointment as the secretary of defense.

2. Sen. TOM COTTON served in the Army until 2009 and the Army Reserve until 2013.
posted by box at 8:25 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Mattis is resigning in protest over the President's national security policies,' a resignation based on 'principle.'”

Wonder where he found those priciples? He certainly hasn't had them 2 years into the Trump presidency.
posted by Twain Device at 8:25 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

All of a sudden, Fox and Friends has made this a thing, and the future of the federal budget really is in their hands. They, more than Individual-1, are the ones whose personalities require analysis now. Do they have the gumption to hold out literally forever? Will Jeanine Pirro come up with a teevee-shoutable solution? Stay tuned, denizens of hell

I think the Murdochs are still rational actors and don't want to see the market crater.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:25 AM on December 21, 2018

The National Security Act of 1947 requires ten years between service in the military and appointment as the secretary of defense.

I'm sorry, I'm wrong here. The law was changed in 2008, reducing from ten to seven the number of years that a nominee must be retired from the military.
posted by peeedro at 8:28 AM on December 21, 2018 [13 favorites]

leotrotsky:
They'd be fools to give up safe Senate seats
Conveniently for all of us, there's a really good chance that both of them fall into this category.
posted by mfu at 8:33 AM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

The only people Trump ever seems to nominate for anything are guests and subjects of reporting on Fox News.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:36 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

Twain Device much as I hate to give Mattis any credit for having principles, I'd say it was Trump's pretty obvious capitulation to a Russian desire for a free hand in Syria that did it.

Mattis is a warmongering evil child caging asshole, but he's also a military person who has a twisted sort of loyalty to what he imagines America to be. He imagines a white ethostate based on a sort of Leave it to Beaver fantasy of what the 1950's were like I'm sure, but a strong and independent white ethnostate not one subservient to any foreign power and especially not one subservient to Russia.

That principle, the idea that America should be the biggest ass kicker around and should give orders to other countries, not take orders from them, is the principle that Mattis saw violated by Trump with his sudden, Putin inspired, withdrawal from Syria.

Mattis is fine with running kiddie koncentration kamps, that's in line with his principles. He can see that as a perhaps distasteful necessity in the worthy cause of defending America from the wicked invading hordes of non-white people.

But he's not the sort of person who is going to be fine with Trump undermining the idea of American dominance and strength for a foreign master.
posted by sotonohito at 8:36 AM on December 21, 2018 [19 favorites]

Counterpoint—Vox: There Never Were Any “Adults In the Room”

i do not always see eye to eye with matt yglesias but he really nails it here:

It’s not the grownups’ fault, exactly, that they can’t control Trump. But that just shows the basic faultiness of the metaphor. When toddlers play, it’s good to have a grownup in the room to supervise. But if a toddler is driving a car, it does no good to have a grownup in the passenger seat. Pretending that it’s somehow okay is the least grownup reaction possible.

posted by murphy slaw at 8:39 AM on December 21, 2018 [128 favorites]

much as I hate to give Mattis any credit for having principles, I'd say it was Trump's pretty obvious capitulation to a Russian desire for a free hand in Syria that did it.

"No puppet. No puppet. You're the puppet."
posted by Gelatin at 8:39 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

Forget Slats, why don't we just put up a laser wall? far less work, and far more future!

I'm not sure how effective they are, but they are 'wall'

‘Invisible’ laser walls to bolster security along border with Pakistan in J-K

"“It takes less than a couple of hours for a 1 km stretch to install the technology. All we need is electricity to run the technology. And in case power is snapped, it can be run on UPS for 8–12 hours,” he said."

We could double dip and build up some Laser Tag centers along the border, as well.
posted by dreamling at 8:40 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Thanks to the smart cookie who recommended https://whatthefuckjusthappenedtoday.com/ to me as a way to limit intake but still stay informed. It works like a charm. I recommend signing up for it, once a day email dump that is a bit humorous.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 8:43 AM on December 21, 2018 [12 favorites]

“I am told to expect more resignations at the Pentagon in wake of Mattis.
I know that opinions about Mattis differ somewhat here on Metafilter, but in the military/veteran community, he is, with remarkably few exceptions, the single most respected man who has served in the last 50 years, jokingly referred to as “Saint Mattis”. Yesterday my phone was ringing and beeping off the hook, as folks I’ve served with and folks in the veteran community were all frantic to make sure I heard the news and to talk it through. It’s enough to make me wish Mattis was a different man, one who would call that anger and point it at the White House. But he is a scholar, he knows that once you go down that path it can never be undone.

I think there will definitely be a reaction. I don’t know what it will be. But at the very least, Trump support sounds lower than it has ever been.
posted by corb at 8:55 AM on December 21, 2018 [71 favorites]

What on earth would be wrong with focusing anger at this current White House? History would love you. I wish they were all different men and women, who would do so.
posted by agregoli at 8:58 AM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

Yep, military up and down the chain of command will be pissed. It might even dent the red hatter contingent in there. They may love Trump, but they worship Mattis.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:59 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

What on earth would be wrong with focusing anger at this current White House? History would love you. I wish they were all different men and women, who would do so.

in mattis' case, i suspect that part of it is that as a long-serving military officer, hitting back hard at your commander in chief feels uncomfortably like a coup.

the US military has problems out the wazoo but one thing they do right is strongly indoctrinate the officer class into believing in the importance of civilian control at the top.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:01 AM on December 21, 2018 [17 favorites]

What on earth would be wrong with focusing anger at this current White House?

The anger Mattis is capable of focusing would come from current and former military. That is a road anybody should be, at minimum, extremely cautious about walking down. Even as somebody who sees Trump as an existential threat to the country and human civilization generally, a para/military opposition to the current White House would also pose such a threat so I'm okay with seeing what a Congressional opposition can do before we break that seal.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:02 AM on December 21, 2018 [34 favorites]

How Trump Is Stripping Immigrants of Their Citizenship: On the 99th anniversary of Emma Goldman’s deportation, the Trump administration is using the same tactics to expel US citizens.
posted by homunculus at 9:03 AM on December 21, 2018 [16 favorites]

The Atlantic's Natasha Bertrand: The Special Counsel Is Bearing Down on Roger Stone—The longtime Trump adviser appears to have asked an associate to obtain anti-Clinton emails from WikiLeaks during the 2016 campaign.

The House Intelligence Committee voted unanimously on Thursday to release the official transcript of [Stone's] testimony to Mueller, days after Mueller formally requested it—the last step necessary for prosecutors to bring a charge of lying to Congress, according to The Washington Post.[…]

The House panel, for its part, has homed in on at least one area of “deep concern” about Stone’s truthfulness: a supplemental statement Stone submitted weeks after his September 2017 testimony in which he identified a New York radio host named Randy Credico as his back channel to Assange. The supplemental statement, obtained by The Atlantic, is “one of the many areas where we have a deep concern that Mr. Stone was untruthful to our committee, especially in light of the new reports,” a committee aide told me earlier this month.

In the supplemental statement, Stone insisted that he had merely asked Credico, an acquaintance of many years, to “confirm” Assange’s claim in June 2016 that WikiLeaks had Clinton emails that were “pending publication.” Credico had discussed Assange and WikiLeaks with Stone that summer, telling Stone in late August that Assange had “kryptonite on Hillary.” And in October, Credico predicted damaging email dumps while in London trying unsuccessfully to meet with Assange as a potential guest on his show. But there is no evidence that Credico was Stone’s original source of information about WikiLeaks’ plans.

In an odder turn of events, Mother Jones reports: Lyndon LaRouche Is Still Alive and He’s Been Hobnobbing With Roger Stone—The international cult leader has long-standing ties to Russia—and Robert Mueller.

A LaRouche-Stone-Trump connection would be just crazy enough to cap off this week.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:06 AM on December 21, 2018 [27 favorites]

I think none of these traditions and precedents mean a damn thing right now. We need more opposition, more people saying This Is Wrong, in every arena, and I'm ashamed of those who won't speak up.
posted by agregoli at 9:15 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

just to reassure everyone who, like me, had a palpatation reading that mother jones headline:

(Mueller himself is no stranger to LaRouche; he was a key player in the 1980s investigation that sent LaRouche to jail.)

everything is fine.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:15 AM on December 21, 2018 [28 favorites]

@AP: BREAKING: Supreme Court: Justice Ginsburg has cancerous growths removed from lung.
posted by sporkwort at 9:25 AM on December 21, 2018 [14 favorites]

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg underwent a pulmonary lobectomy in NYC today to remove two nodules from her lung, which were determined to be malignant. "Post-surgery, there was no evidence of any remaining disease," the court's public information office reports.

Maybe not so bad?
posted by TWinbrook8 at 9:29 AM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

Reminder: There is a venting thread for those of us freaking out about anything, RBG’s health included. On my phone or would post link. Let us all breathe and not comment in haste. Also: Hugs all around.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:33 AM on December 21, 2018 [26 favorites]

Regarding the Chinese hacking NASA. Why? I mean, there are a few things that are considered trade secrets from industrial partners we work with, but most of our data is just put up on public facing pages. Seems like a waste of time. Just hack Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin.
posted by runcibleshaw at 9:34 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

AP: Trump Call With Turkish Leader Led to US Pullout from Syria

President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from Syria was made hastily, without consulting his national security team or allies, and over strong objections from virtually everyone involved in the fight against the Islamic State group, according to U.S. and Turkish officials.

Trump stunned his Cabinet, lawmakers and much of the world with the move by rejecting the advice of his top aides and agreeing to a withdrawal in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week, two U.S. officials and a Turkish official briefed on the matter told The Associated Press.

The Dec. 14 call, described by officials who were not authorized to discuss the decision-making process publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, provides insight into a consequential Trump decision that prompted the resignation of widely respected Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. It also set off a frantic, four-day scramble to convince the president either to reverse or delay the decision.

Once again, we have a case of Trump ignoring his advisors, going off script, and aligning himself with a foreign leader over his own cabinet:

The Dec. 14 call came a day after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu agreed to have the two presidents discuss Erdogan’s threats to launch a military operation against U.S.-backed Kurdish rebels in northeast Syria, where American forces are based. The NSC then set up the call.

Pompeo, Mattis and other members of the national security team prepared a list of talking points for Trump to tell Erdogan to back off, the officials said.

But the officials said Trump, who had previously accepted such advice and convinced the Turkish leader not to attack the Kurds and put U.S. troops at risk, ignored the script. Instead, the president sided with Erdogan.[…]

Trump was not dissuaded, according to the officials, who said the president quickly capitulated by pledging to withdraw, shocking both Bolton and Erdogan.

Caught off guard, Erdogan cautioned Trump against a hasty withdrawal, according to one official.[…]

The call ended with Trump repeating to Erdogan that the U.S. would pull out, but offering no specifics on how it would be done, the officials said.

The leak goes into rich detail about not only the phone call, in which John Bolton was dragged in as the voice of reason(!), but also the aftermath, during which Bolton, Mattis and Pompeo were blocked first by John Kelly and then by Mick Mulvaney from appealing to Trump not to go through with the pullout. Trump's own nat sec team sounds like it's freaking out if it's willing to go to the press with this much dirty laundry.

Maybe Erdogan is carrying water for Putin, or maybe he's accumulated kompromat of his own on Trump.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:38 AM on December 21, 2018 [53 favorites]

In the same way that China has a hard time believing that Canada arrested the Huawei CFO as a law enforcement matter and not a hardball trade negotiation tactic coordinated by the U.S., they probably have a hard time believing that NASA doesn't have more secrets to hide. It's what they would do.
posted by AndrewInDC at 9:38 AM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

What’s Noticeably Missing From the Matthew Whitaker Nonrecusal Explanation (Marty Lederman, Just Security online forum via Slate)

The Department of Justice issued a letter (.pdf) Thursday explaining why Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker has decided he won’t recuse from superintending the Russia investigation overseen by special counsel Robert Mueller, notwithstanding the many inaccurate and inflammatory public statements he made about the investigation before Donald Trump appointed him.
...
Notice what’s conspicuously missing: There is no mention of what the government’s “interest” might be “in [Whitaker’s] participation” in the Russia investigation, let alone any discussion of why that interest might possibly “[outweigh] the concern that a reasonable person may question the integrity of the agency’s programs and operations.” And in particular, the letter does not suggest that Whitaker so much as considered “the … importance of [his own] role in the matter” or “[t]he difficulty of reassigning the matter to another employee.”

That is to say: The letter offers absolutely no reason why it would be of any value to the department or the administration of justice—indeed, why it would be of any value to anyone or anything at all, save the personal interests of Donald Trump—for Whitaker to replace Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein as superintendent of the Russia investigation.*
…
* The letter does mention Whitaker’s desire not to create a precedent that recusal is required in a “close call situation.” That doesn’t make much sense when you think about: Of course recusal isn’t required in every close case—indeed, the whole point of something being a “close call situation” is that sometimes the answer will fall on one side of the line, sometimes on the other. In any event, if Whitaker were truly concerned about creating a “precedent” about whether recusal is required in all close cases, he could simply announce that although recusal isn’t required in every close case, he’s recusing here because there’s no value in having Whitaker supersede Rosenstein in the Russia investigation.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:41 AM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

Maybe Erdogan is carrying water for Putin, or maybe he's accumulated kompromat of his own on Trump.

The most convincing theory I've heard is that this is his price to stop leaking details of Jamal Khashoggi's murder.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:42 AM on December 21, 2018 [34 favorites]

Fucking Fuck venting thread.
posted by yoga at 9:43 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

And Lynch kinda sorta partially recused herself (she said she would abide by whatever recommendation the FBI made) from the Hillary EMAILS investigation, which is why Comey was making announcements.

No, Lynch did not recuse herself in any way. She did not agree with Comey making announcements and she and the ethics office strongly advised him not to.

Nor should Lynch have recused herself. If every person who has ever met some other person must recuse themselves, there would be nobody left to do an investigation. Merely meeting someone is not reason for recusal. Expressing an opinion of the outcome before the investigation is grounds for recusal.

Whittaker and Barr should recuse because they have previously expressed their views on the case -- in writing. Sessions recused himself because he was literally a potential subject of the investigation. Lynch was not even close, and to succumb to Republican whining is stupid.
posted by JackFlash at 9:44 AM on December 21, 2018 [26 favorites]

Erdogan: Hey, your buddy MBS tortured and murdered a journalist.

Trump: Ssshh MBS is my guy. How do we get you to shut up about that?

Erdogan: Get your troops out of the way so we can torture and murder tons of your Kurdish allies.

Trump: Okay, sounds good.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:56 AM on December 21, 2018 [15 favorites]

Erdogan: Hey, your buddy MBS tortured and murdered a journalist.

Trump: Ssshh MBS is my guy. How do we get you to shut up about that?

Erdogan: Get your troops out of the way so we can torture and murder tons of your Kurdish allies.

Trump: Okay, sounds good.

Yeah, given what we know right now I would guess that Trump is giving up the Kurds to Turkey in return for Turkey silencing their outcry over Khashoggi's murder. The reason Trump wants to stop Turkey's outcry over Khashoggi's murder is because he's allied with the Saudis, and he's allied with the Saudis at least partly because of whatever deal Putin and bin Salman struck that led to their ridiculous "handshake" at the G20 summit.
posted by rue72 at 10:09 AM on December 21, 2018 [16 favorites]

The reason he wants to stop Turkey's outcry over Khashoggi's murder is because he's allied with the Saudis

I think everyone is underestimating the probability that either Trump, or Kushner, or both, knew about the plan to murder Khashoggi in advance and either gave MBS the go ahead or signaled the US wouldn't stop it. There's pretty decent chance he's covering up his or Jared's own direct involvement, on top of whatever other payoffs they're getting from the Saudis.

When Democrats retake power, a fundamental rethink of our relationship with the Saudis MUST happen. Their interests are not ours, and they're just as dangerous as Iran. It's time to stop treating them like they're our friends. They're not.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:13 AM on December 21, 2018 [68 favorites]

Some people were wondering if Mattis's "Mad Dog" nickname was just a harmless sobriquet...It's not:

Retired Gen. James Mattis earned the nickname “Mad Dog” for leading U.S. Marines into battle in Fallujah, Iraq, in April 2004. In that assault, members of the Marine Corps, under Mattis’ command, shot at ambulances and aid workers. They cordoned off the city, preventing civilians from escaping. They posed for trophy photos with the people they killed.

...

But before Mattis’ command in Iraq ended, he was involved in another controversial incident. On May 19, less than three weeks after his forces pulled back from Fallujah, Mattis personally authorized an attack on a wedding party near the Syrian border. The Iraqi government said the strike left 42 civilians dead, including at least 13 children.

The killings roiled Iraq, coming so soon after the carnage of Fallujah – but Mattis stood by his action, arguing the dead were insurgents.

“How many people go to the middle of the desert … to hold a wedding 80 miles from the nearest civilization?” he told The Guardian. “These were more than two dozen military-age males. Let’s not be naive.”

...

In the years since, Mattis – called a “warrior monk” by his supporters – repeatedly has protected American service members who killed civilians, using his status as a division commander to wipe away criminal charges against Marines accused of massacring 24 Iraqi civilians in Haditha in 2005 and granting clemency to some of those convicted in connection with the 2006 murder of a 52-year-old disabled Iraqi, who was taken outside his home and shot in the face four times.

As long as he says something mildly critical about Trump, I'm sure his place in #TheResistance is assured though.
posted by Ouverture at 10:18 AM on December 21, 2018 [96 favorites]

Last week (Dec. 15, 2018) --

Doktor Zed (in the prior thread): The WH pool reports from the congressional ball passes along this snow-job: Trump said the White House is special and they loved living in it. “To me it’s a happy place.” (Which would be more believable if he didn't spend every single weekend he could away from it.)

He then made bipartisanship noises:
This is going to be an exciting year and two years, he said. “I believe we’re going to get really good health care.”

Trump said he was happy there were so many Democrats at the party. “I have a lot of friends who are Democrats,” he said.

If Republicans and Democrats get together, we could end up with incredible health care, which is how it should have been from the start, he said.

“And the other thing they’re going to start working on very shortly is an infrastructure bill, because that’s something I think everybody wants to see,” Trump said.
So as soon as he's returned from his 16-day Christmas-New Year vacation at Mar-a-Lago, it's Infrastructure Week!

Yesterday --

Trump Threatens Infrastructure Legislation Over Border Wall Demand -- Issue has Republican and Democratic buy-in, but president claims he might kill it (John T. Bennett for Roll Call, Dec 20, 2018)

President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to kill any infrastructure legislation lawmakers might pass next year unless Democrats give him billions for his proposed southern border wall.

Notably, Trump did not threaten to veto a stopgap spending measure headed to his desk later Thursday that was made necessary by his demand for $5 billion for the barrier project this fiscal year. Lawmakers could not find a way to meet that demand — or part of it — ahead of a Friday night deadline, so they decided to put off the border wall fight until February.

But he did make clear he will continue to push for the wall funding when the next Congress convenes after a holiday break that will start for lawmakers Thursday and him on Friday.

“The Democrats, who know Steel Slats (Wall) are necessary for Border Security, are putting politics over Country. What they are just beginning to realize is that I will not sign any of their legislation, including infrastructure, unless it has perfect Border Security. U.S.A. WINS!” he wrote in a tweet.

It is never Infrastructure week.

We have always been at war for the border wall.

It is always almost infrastructure week, if only someone would give the president the shiny thing he wants.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:21 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

Or maybe Trump is just a fucking idiot who doesn't know how anything works? The reporting about the call even said Erdogan was taken by surprise

In Trump's crudely binary worldview, you're either dominating or being dominated. When he's the one being dominated, he's astonishingly servile. Remember how over-the-top his support of Putin was at Helsinki? At the podium with Trump for the shameful public press conference, Putin looked as though he couldn't believe how obsequious Trump was being as he repeatedly took Russia's side against US allies and his own intelligence community.

The most convincing theory I've heard is that this is his price to stop leaking details of Jamal Khashoggi's murder.

Erdogan may also have dirt on Trump that connects him to Flynn's illicit activities representing Turkish interests during the transition, including his blocking a US plan to arm Syrian Kurds against ISIS, or maybe to Giuliani's legal aid in the Turkey-Iran cash-for-gold sanctions-busting scandal. There's a myriad of possibilities with Trump's level of corruption, and his presidency is so shaky at the moment, any one of these could topple him.

And Judge Sullivan bringing up the t-word on Tuesday seems to have spooked Trumpland.
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:23 AM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

“These were more than two dozen military-age males. Let’s not be naive.”

Oh my God, I remember this quote, just not who said it. I feel like that should have spread more when he assumed command.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:25 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

In Immigrant Children’s Shelters, Sexual Assault Cases Are Open and Shut: Across the country, kids are reporting sexual assaults in immigrant children’s shelters. Alex decided to come forward. He told the shelter two older teens dragged him into a bedroom. There was surveillance video. But Alex's case wasn't investigated. His isn’t the only one.
posted by homunculus at 10:28 AM on December 21, 2018 [26 favorites]

Physician and Atlantic staff writer James Hamblin: re RBG: If you’re 85 and you break a rib and get a CT, the radiologist will very likely find pulmonary nodules. Most aren't removed. Since hers are now out and there’s apparently no evidence of metastatic disease, the primary issue is recovery from the procedure.

Which is good news, albeit couched in medical language.
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:30 AM on December 21, 2018 [63 favorites]

>> The most convincing theory I've heard is that this is his price to stop leaking details of Jamal Khashoggi's murder.

> Erdogan may also have dirt on Trump that connects him to Flynn's illicit activities representing Turkish interests during the transition, including his blocking a US plan to arm Syrian Kurds against ISIS, or maybe to Giuliani's legal aid in the Turkey-Iran cash-for-gold sanctions-busting scandal. There's a myriad of possibilities with Trump's level of corruption...

When the Founding Fathers wrote impeachment into the constitution, I wonder if it could even possibly have crossed their mind that someday, we might have difficulty with the remedy because we couldn't decide which of several equally plausible alternatives was the true explanation for bald-faced treasonous behavior by the President.

I wonder if this shakes some Republican senators out of their complacency. (OK, that's enough, stop laughing.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:31 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

but Trump pressed on because deciding things and giving orders makes him feel powerful and manly.

(Emphasis added) I think this interpretation is most likely to be true. Donald Trump is a man suffering from a giant, untreated personality disorder(s), so there are no reasons for anything he does, in the sense of logical or rational, considered thought processes. He is pure feeling, all irrationality and emotional need, and every single day for him is about filling the gaping, sucking black hole at the center of his being where most of the rest of us have a sense of self. He doesn't just need to feel powerful and manly, he needs to feel dominant to reassure himself that he has any value, that he's anything at all.

He doesn't care about our Kurdish allies, or anyone else, not because he thought about it and is indifferent or hostile, but because it wouldn't even occur to his profoundly dysfunctional mind to think those thoughts about not-himself. If he's yanking us out of Syria, it's because it's an irritating problem that pisses him off, because he has to hear all this stupid, complicated information with funny-sounding words and names that he can't keep track of, and he always has to make all these decisions about it, and he really wants to get back to watching the teevee and rage-tweeting. He's using the shutdown to get back at Congress, and all the rest of us, because we won't call off the Mueller investigation or give him his giant phallus-proxy border wall, so that's where his current fuck-you is aimed. The Syria thing looks to me more like him swatting away an annoying nuisance, casually disregarding the horror and suffering and death it will cause and unleash because it doesn't have anything to do with him.

That's more terrifying than a calculating evil, because if there were any strategy or reasons involved here that were made of or informed by any kind of rational, logical thought processes, it could be understood and countered, obstructed or fought. But this? This is a nearly alien mind operating in ways we are all seeing but cannot bring ourselves to accept, one that acts unpredictably and with reliable disregard for any consequences. This kind of malevolence can only be contained, neutralized, removed from power; direct engagement is loss before the first move is made. This week feels like the week we (collectively speaking, not locally-on-Metafilter 'we') are finally starting to realize that a truly irrational person holds the most powerful political office in the world. One can only hope that invocation of the 25th amendment will soon happen, the world may not have time for a process like impeachment, trial and conviction.
posted by LooseFilter at 10:35 AM on December 21, 2018 [68 favorites]

He doesn't care about our Kurdish allies, or anyone else, not because he thought about it and is indifferent or hostile, but because it wouldn't even occur to his profoundly dysfunctional mind to think those thoughts about not-himself.

also, because in trumpworld, there are no allies: there are only enemies and patsies
posted by murphy slaw at 10:41 AM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

Has Trump refused to sign anything yet? I know he's said he won't sign; has any legislation actually been handed to him that he refused to sign? Are we in pocket veto country, or is it still all just hot air?

Because he LOVES putting his signature on Real Live American Laws, and he loves tweeting about how awful those laws are and how he was tricked into signing them. (AKA: Push Democrats to fight hard for the laws we want. Do not take blame for laws passed or failed when both parts of Congress are controlled by R majorities. Do not waste taxpayer money on Steel Slats.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:44 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

has any legislation actually been handed to him that he refused to sign?

No; the Senate passed the short-term continuing resolution on Wednesday, but Trump declared his opposition before the House's scheduled vote, and they passed a wall-funding version of the bill instead. So now the Senate is voting on the House's CR. That process is going to go on for a while because Senators who went home for the holiday have to fly back to DC.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:46 AM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

This is a nearly alien mind operating in ways we are all seeing but cannot bring ourselves to accept, one that acts unpredictably and with reliable disregard for any consequences

Trump is a Machine Learning algorithm and probably the most famous human to continually fail the Turing Test.

I've found this framing to be singularly helpful when it comes to Trump. Most people are unpredictable baths of nutrient goop, but we've also mostly manage to cobble together a sense of self, an ersatz homunculus that is a decent stand-in for a "real" identity (even if it's ultimately fictional). Trump doesn't have one. He's a human giant sucking sound. Why did he do anything? The same reason why a machine learning algorithm did it: some combination of learned weights and chaos. Normal people are probably more random and weird than we think, but we've all got little narratives in our head that help us make sense of what we do and moderate ourselves. As far as I can tell Trump's internal narrative is just an endless shriek.

all just hot air

All just hot air, because Paul Ryan refused to bring the no-wall funding package to a vote in the House.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:50 AM on December 21, 2018 [25 favorites]

The continued use of the word "allies" is demoralizing and increasingly, inaccurate in what it represents. The China hackers news is from the 5 eyes, not "allies", and after this tumultuous week, a listing of allies might actually be a useful exercise for the land of the brave and the free.
posted by infini at 10:52 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

Folks, please refresh and stop responding to deleted comments. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 10:53 AM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

The AP is reporting that McConnell, Alexander, and Hatch have all stated their opposition to the idea of removing the filibuster in order to pass the House CR in the Senate.
posted by jedicus at 10:53 AM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

Shutdown update: The Senate is considering a motion to proceed on the House-passed bill, which includes the wall funding. That requires 50 votes, and then the final bill would require 60, assuming they don't go nuclear as Trump is urging (and it seems the Senate has no appetite for that). Flake voted no, so if everyone else shows up and votes according to party, they would have the votes to proceed with Pence's tiebreaker.

Corker went off (he did show up though): "We have two talk-radio show hosts who basically influenced the president, and we’re in a shutdown mode. It’s just—that’s tyranny, isn’t it?"

12 Senators have yet to vote, and it's unclear whether everyone is even going to come back. Corker is withholding his vote until he knows what's going to happen, and they'll just keep the vote open indefinitely at this point.

If the motion to proceed fails, the ball still stays in the Senate's court. Either way, we seem to be cruising toward a shutdown.

Meanwhile, they're wheeling the Christmas trees out of the Capitol already, so look out for the mediocre "The Shutdown that Stole Christmas" movie on Netflix next year.
posted by zachlipton at 10:54 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

No; the Senate passed the short-term continuing resolution on Wednesday, but Trump declared his opposition before the House's scheduled vote, and they passed a wall-funding version of the bill instead. So now the Senate is voting on the House's CR. That process is going to go on for a while because Senators who went home for the holiday have to fly back to DC.

Also, the Senate can't even vote on the final cloture on the House CR+the Wall bill (which will fail) until Sunday. So we are locked in to at least a weekend shutdown. Then the House will have to pass something else before the Senate can vote on THAT to reopen the government.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:55 AM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

> So we are locked in to at least a weekend shutdown.

What I want to know is, does the shutdown prevent a departure for Mar-a-Lago?

Because if Trump gets to skip out to Mar-a-Lago to golf while the Federal employees don't get their Christmas paychecks ...
posted by RedOrGreen at 11:08 AM on December 21, 2018 [13 favorites]

The AP is reporting that McConnell, Alexander, and Hatch have all stated their opposition to the idea of removing the filibuster in order to pass the House CR in the Senate.

It would of course be utterly insane for them to take any other position given that the GOP House majority is going away next week, meaning Democrats will keep a veto point over legislation no matter what happens to the Senate rules. In divided government the filibuster becomes an ally to both sides in the Senate, as it lets the minority exercise a measure of control over legislation while the majority can avoid any votes that present hard PR choices and just blame the minority for blocking them from the floor.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:09 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Also, the motion to proceed is currently at 43-45. Getting to 50 is still a possibility, but if you don't have 51 votes to proceed you sure as shit don't have 60 to invoke cloture.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:14 AM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

Here is a bookmarklet just in case you wanted every reference to walls ever to sound like ~~the Incredible Hulk~~ Kirstjen Nielsen.
posted by ragtag at 11:16 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

Military.com breaks down Trump's dwindling list of possible replacements for SecDef Mattis. Their shortlist includes Obama-critic retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, suck-up Lindsey Graham, and the machiavellian Tom Cotton, as well as former Sen. Jim Talen, Dubya national security adviser Stephen Hadley, and retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, a national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence.

Task & Purpose fulsomely reports: The Pentagon Feels Hollow The Day After Mattis’ Resignation

And CNN has more leaks for the inside story about how the Trump-Mattis alliance crumbled. The ones coming from the military and defense community are, of course, totally pro-Mattis, but interestingly, even the few from the administration don't really criticize him or take Trump's side. Mulvaney is going to have a much harder time stamping out leaks that Kelly ever did, now that Trump has kicked over this hornet's nest.

Because if Trump gets to skip out to Mar-a-Lago to golf while the Federal employees don't get their Christmas paychecks ...

Vox's Aaron Rupar, checking in on Fox & Friends this morning: "SARAH SANDERS: Trump will not travel to Mar-a-Lago if the government shuts down. And he will shut down the government unless he gets wall funding."

And Yahoo's Ethan Klapper: "🚨 The FAA has canceled the temporary flight restrictions around Mar-A-Lago. Strong sign that Trump is sticking around in D.C., at least for now."
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:18 AM on December 21, 2018 [12 favorites]

With Mattis out, Blackwater (formerly Academi, formerly Xe, formerly Blackwater) is safe to burst from the grave with all brand masks off.

Military Times: This month, in the January/February print issue of the gun and hunting magazine “Recoil," the former contractor security firm Blackwater USA published a full-page ad, in all black with a simple message: “We are coming.”
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:19 AM on December 21, 2018 [26 favorites]

Their shortlist includes Obama-critic retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, suck-up Lindsey Graham, and the machiavellian Tom Cotton, as well as former Sen. Jim Talen, Dubya national security adviser Stephen Hadley, and retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, a national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence.

i can't believe that any sitting senator would want the job. working inside the administration at this point has zero upside, and mitch mcconnell does not want to deal with any special elections in the current climate on the tiniest off-chance that a roy moore situation develops.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:21 AM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Also from MilitaryTimes.com: Coast Guard would bear the brunt of latest government shutdown [at least as military services go]

tl;dr: Both the DoD and the VA were funded through other legislation already passed, but the Coast Guard is funded through DHS so that's only like 43,000 people working without pay 'til it's over.
Also endless jokes about whether the Coast Guard is "real" military by people who have literally never satisfied a lover.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:26 AM on December 21, 2018 [29 favorites]

so that's only like 43,000 people working without pay 'til it's over.

Plus the 8000 or so civilian employees who will mostly be furloughed.
posted by suelac at 11:40 AM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

WaPo, ‘A tailspin’: Under siege, Trump propels the government and markets into crisis.

Phillip Rucker scores a juicy leak: "Inside the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump was in what one Republican close to the White House described as “a tailspin,” acting “totally irrationally” and “flipping out” over criticisms in the media."

And Vanity Fair's Gabriel Sherman has more from Trumpland: “Some Reverse Wag-The-Dog Bulls--T”: Boxed In and Fighting For Survival, Trump Is Flailing, Fuming,and Wondering Why Jared Is Getting All the Good Press

“He’s over. He’s finished,” one Breitbart staffer told me. Inside the White House, some advisers fear he’s boxed himself in, with disastrous results in every direction. “He’s losing it,” one former West Wing official said. “He doesn’t know which way to turn.” […]

“The ‘win the day’ on Fox strategy didn’t work,” a Republican close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said.[…]

“His erstwhile critics wouldn’t be happy with anything short of a Great Wall of China on the southern border,” one senior West Wing official told me.

As his supporters turned on him, Trump took a self-pitying attitude. He complained to one friend that European leaders were doing much worse. “The world is melting down! Look at France. Those riots are costing them a billion dollars a day!” he said, according to a person briefed on the conversation. Trump told another friend that the only person in the White House who gets good press is Jared Kushner. In an apparent bid to change the narrative, Trump announced he was withdrawing the 2,000 United States troops in Syria, but that only compounded the crisis by spurring Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to resign. “It was some reverse wag-the-dog bullshit,” a Republican close to the White House told me.

Now, Trump has hours to negotiate his way out of one of the worst crises of his presidency. No matter what happens, allies fear the episode has revealed Trump’s inability to govern at a moment when Democrats are about to open political warfare on the White House. “They’re absolutely going to crush him. He has no idea what’s coming his way,” the Republican said.

Whether or not any of these leaks are reliable or these predictions will come to pass, what's notable is how many Trumplanders are telling them to the press.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:42 AM on December 21, 2018 [42 favorites]

May I just say, as a Navy brat, I have personally been rescued by the Coast Guard, and I love them the best.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:43 AM on December 21, 2018 [64 favorites]

The most convincing theory I've heard is that this is his price to stop leaking details of Jamal Khashoggi's murder.

Erdogan was caught by surprise. This didn't come from him. And given that we're also pulling out of Afghanistan, Occam's Razor says there's likely one common cause between them both. And Trump's Razor tells us that reason will be a stupid one. It's an unforced error entirely of Trump's own creation - Trump's putting an end to both these wars (or our involvement in them at least) because they're not HIS so he doesn't LIKE them. It's why he never visited the troops in the field, he said so. If they were fighting a war that belonged to him, that he started, of course he'd go & encourage them. It's reasoning that only makes sense to a toxic narcissist. So here we are.
posted by scalefree at 11:44 AM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

one of the worst crises of his presidency

Hold everyone's beers.
posted by emelenjr at 11:45 AM on December 21, 2018 [76 favorites]

The potential privatization of the Afghan War was previously dismissed by the White House, and roundly criticized by Mattis, who saw it as a risk to emplace the nation’s national security goals in the hands of contractors.

“When Americans put their nation’s credibility on the line, privatizing it is probably not a wise idea,” Mattis told reporters in August.

But Mattis is out now, one in a series of moves that has surprised most of the Pentagon.

Drastic change would “be more likely” now, one DOD official said.

Occam's Razer, if Rust Moranis' link on Blackwater is true, says there's a huge profit motive in pulling troops out to be replaced by mercenaries and contractors. This has nothing to do with Trump's wars or not his wars and everything to do with money to be made.
posted by infini at 11:48 AM on December 21, 2018 [36 favorites]

If they were fighting a war that belonged to him, that he started, of course he'd go & encourage them.

No he wouldn't, he has short changed every contractor and business partner who ever took the regretful decision to do deals with him, why would he treat nameless soldiers coming back from Iran in body bags any better?
posted by PenDevil at 11:51 AM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

there's a huge profit motive in pulling troops out to be replaced by mercenaries and contractors.

...Which makes me wonder why Blackwater would announce its intentions in a magazine ad? I don't know that there's a lot of single-issue "privatize the military" voters, and as a for-profit contractor Blackwater doesn't have to rely on donations or membership like, say, the NRA. It just seems like they make money more easily when people don't know what they're up to.
posted by Rykey at 11:55 AM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

Occam's Razer, if Rust Moranis' link on Blackwater is true, says there's a huge profit motive in pulling troops out to be replaced by mercenaries and contractors. This has nothing to do with Trump's wars or not his wars and everything to do with money to be made.

That's an opportunistic event, taking advantage of the opportunity to enact plans made by Erik Prince years ago. I will be very surprised if Prince's fingerprints can be found anywhere near the decision-making process (such as it was).
posted by scalefree at 11:56 AM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

No he wouldn't, he has short changed every contractor and business partner who ever took the regretful decision to do deals with him, why would he treat nameless soldiers coming back from Iran in body bags any better?

Well of course he wouldn't actually go, he's a great big coward. But he'd say that he'll go up to the point where he makes an excuse for why he can't. For these wars started by other presidents (especially the hated Obama) he won't even say he'd like to go. He actually came right out & admitted it when asked why he's never visited soldiers in the field.
posted by scalefree at 12:01 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

the White House described as “a tailspin,” acting “totally irrationally” and “flipping out” over criticisms in the media.

Okay but since he's been in this damn "tailspin" for two years now call me back when he actually crash lands goes up in a puff of orange smoke.

Don't get me wrong, he certainly SOUNDS like he's in a tailspin and his digging in his stupid heels about the shutdown is only making it worse but by fucking god he is not spinning fast enough to avoid disaster. Keep him from Mar-A-Lago for the holidays and don't quarantine his phone and he'll fire the rest of the damn cabinet by New Years.
posted by lydhre at 12:03 PM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

CNN, K-FILE, Mick Mulvaney in 2015: Trump's views on border wall 'simplistic,' 'absurd and almost childish'

Incoming White House acting-chief of staff Mick Mulvaney once called President Donald Trump's views on a border wall and immigration "simplistic" and "absurd and almost childish."
A physical barrier would not stop undocumented immigrants from crossing the Mexican border and ranchers at the border say they don't need a fence, Mulvaney said in a 2015 interview uncovered by KFile.

Match this up with Daily Beast's reporting last week: Trump’s Next Chief of Staff Called Him ‘A Terrible Human Being’ Just Before He Was Elected President

And Axios's reporting today:

As a sign of the mood inside, officials at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue tell us that Trump is complaining about his incoming chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, in conversations inside the West Wing and with Capitol Hill.

Trump asked one trusted adviser: "Did you know [Mulvaney] called me 'a terrible human being'" back during the campaign?

We're told that Trump was furious when the slight surfaced in a two-year-old video right after he promoted Mulvaney. (A spokeswoman says that was before Mulvaney met Trump.

So this is shaping up to be a real professional relationship built on trust and mutual respect.
posted by zachlipton at 12:03 PM on December 21, 2018 [52 favorites]

Erdogan was caught by surprise.

Yeah, but he still suggested it. He was expecting Trump to try and bargain him down to something less extreme but still advantageous for Turkey. So the question is still, what was his bargaining chip?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:04 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

from the CNN story linked upthread:

As Trump mulled the merits of launching a limited military strike against North Korea, he took the provocative step of ordering the evacuation of military families in South Korea -- a move Mattis and other top national security officials feared could send a signal that the US was on a war footing.

As McMaster directed his NSC staff to begin drafting the order, Mattis worked with White House chief of staff John Kelly to dissuade the President, ultimately convincing him to issue a scaled-down directive barring military personnel in South Korea from bringing their families during future tours.

That memo was also never implemented -- one of many presidential directives Mattis slow-walked with the hope that Trump would forget about them and move on.

It's stuff like this that makes me understand why Mattis thought he needed to stick around. I mean, he might have prevented WWIII there.
posted by BungaDunga at 12:05 PM on December 21, 2018 [33 favorites]

Boxed In and Fighting For Survival, Trump Is Flailing, Fuming,and Wondering Why Jared Is Getting All the Good Press

And on Monday VF's Gabriel Sherman filed a similarly leak-filled story: “The Staff Is Fed Up He’s Acting Like a Nut”: Trump’s West Wing Braces for Christmas Madness, More Departures—And Mueller

As the Robert Mueller loop tightens around the president, his erratic behavior is causing alarm among his most senior staff. “The staff is fed up he’s acting like a nut. They can’t get him to stop tweeting,” a former official said.[…]

Trump’s advisers, however, recognize the precariousness of the current political moment. In one sign of the discontent in the West Wing, Communications Director Bill Shine has told friends that he’s thinking about signing a month-to-month lease for his Washington apartment, according to a source. “Bill is very frustrated,” a person familiar with his thinking said.[…]

West Wing officials anticipate more departures—and worry that filling the jobs may be difficult. “I want them all out,” Trump fumed to officials, referring to Kelly’s loyalists, a person briefed on the conversation said. Sources said Deputy Chief of Staff Zach Fuentes and counselor to the president John DeStefano are likely to leave. “You got tumbleweeds blowing through the West Wing. It’s already understaffed,” a former official told me.

At the time, the Trump White House's biggest concern was convincing Kelly to sign an additional NDA to prevent him from leaking once he left. Even if they're successful, more are springing up.

CNN: Trump Offered "No Plan" To Avoid Shutdown In Meeting With Senators, Source Says

A source briefed on the White House meeting between President Trump and Senate Republicans told CNN that the meeting did not go well because there was no end game.

"He dug in," the source said. "But doesn’t have a plan, offered no numbers. I heard it did not go well."

The source added that Trump again made the case to use the so-called "nuclear option" to change filibuster rules so a simple majority of senators could advance legislation, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell insisted that would not happen.[…]

Sen. Richard Shelby, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee who was also at the meeting, said[…] "Short of any big intervention or breakthrough, we are headed to a shutdown."

But good luck dragging the Dem senators to the bargaining table. Earlier today, Schumer displayed uncharacteristic backbone on the Senate floor, declaring: "So, President Trump, you will not get your wall. Abandon your shutdown strategy. You're not getting the wall today, next week, or on January 3 when Democrats take control of the House."
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:08 PM on December 21, 2018 [23 favorites]

@ZoeTillman: It wouldn't be the Friday before a holiday without an announcement from DOJ about the recission of more guidance documents — Acting AG Whitaker is withdrawing 69 documents "that are unnecessary, outdated, inconsistent with existing law, or otherwise improper."

It looks like the list of withdrawn documents includes the Obama-era school discipline guidance mentioned the other day.
posted by zachlipton at 12:19 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

The source added that Trump again made the case to use the so-called "nuclear option" to change filibuster rules so a simple majority of senators could advance legislation, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell insisted that would not happen.[…]

Worth noting too that the Senate can't just vote to end the filibuster willy-nilly. There's a TON of parliamentary steps that have to precede the point of order that would result in ending the filibuster. It took McConnell weeks to set up that vote for the Gorsuch* fight, and he's done no preparation for it now.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:20 PM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

(WaPo headline) McConnell says he supports bill with border money after meeting with Trump

Was anyone else there at that meeting? What did Trump say, exactly? I'm dying to know how he actually convinces people to do anything. What does he do, wave a magic wand over people to hypnotize them? How does he get so, so many people to say "yup, I'll do exactly what he says right now"?? There's some kind of magic potion going on. There is no other possible explanation.
posted by Melismata at 12:20 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

A debate about the precise definition of "mercenary" is not adding value to this thread.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 12:23 PM on December 21, 2018 [17 favorites]

What does he do, wave a magic wand over people to hypnotize them?

have you seen blazing saddles? trump holds a loaded gun to his head (which is also the the head of the GOP) and says "do what he say! do what he say!"

and mitch mcconnell shakes his head and says "i think he's just crazy enough to do it!"
posted by murphy slaw at 12:25 PM on December 21, 2018 [17 favorites]

CNN says it appears Schumer and McConnell are negotiating next steps with Corker as a go-between. Corker told reporters he wants "an exit strategy" and that the House's CR is unpassable in the Senate.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:25 PM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

Also Republicans have an attendance problem in the Senate right now. They're having trouble even getting 50 votes to proceed, much less cloture, and at least a few Republican Senators still aren't even in town. They may not even get able to take up the House Wall bill, it's currently stalled 44-46 against opening debate.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:28 PM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

>What on earth would be wrong with focusing anger at this current White House? History would love you. I wish they were all different men and women, who would do so.

>in mattis' case, i suspect that part of it is that as a long-serving military officer, hitting back hard at your commander in chief feels uncomfortably like a coup. the US military has problems out the wazoo but one thing they do right is strongly indoctrinate the officer class into believing in the importance of civilian control at the top.

And that, folks, is precisely why Congress mandated by law that the Defense Secretary must be a civilian. And that is precisely why it was a terrible mistake to override that law with a special waiver for Mattis.

So now you have people arguing that Mattis, in a civilian cabinet office, must hold his tongue about Trump because he represents the military rather than the civilian public. That was an entirely preventable fuck up.
posted by JackFlash at 12:32 PM on December 21, 2018 [105 favorites]

But to the Republicans, that's a feature rather than a bug.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:34 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

CNN's Manu Raju: GOP Senators Are Frustrated Trump Won’t Say What He Will Sign

At a closed-door lunch meeting, GOP senators were frustrated that there was no endgame because President Trump has not told senators what exactly he would sign, according to two sources at the meeting.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made clear to senators that Trump didn’t provide any sense on what he may sign.

“He didn’t say because he didn’t know,” one GOP senator told CNN.

They did discuss various options: If they do get the votes to proceed to the House bill, there’s discussion about amending it to get the votes in the Senate. If they don’t get the votes, it kicks the discussion back to the House.

Republican Sen. Roy Blunt put it like this:

“We are pretty much flying here without an instruction book.”

The beginning of the end of the Trump presidency came and went a long time ago. I have never wavered from my oft-stated convictions that (a) Trump will not finish out his term, and (b), the end will be triggered by a presidential meltdown that forces the Vichy Republicans in Washington to mount an insurrection — if only to save their own asses, not the country. This week was a big step toward that endgame, and surely one of the most remarkable weeks in American history.

We have a president of the United States who is moving to shut down the government at the same moment that he is inviting America’s adversaries to breach its defenses. The withdrawals in Syria and Afghanistan, combined with the exit of the last top administration official who aspired to serve the national interest rather than Trump’s, invites hostile moves against the United States from ISIS, Russia, China, North Korea, and the Taliban. This has even grabbed the cynical Mitch McConnell’s attention: He has declared himself “distressed” by Mattis’s resignation, a major step in rhetorical escalation in a party where Susan Collins’s pathetic periodic expressions of “concern” are what pass for criticism of an outlaw president. ... The sheer uncertainty of a chaos presidency is pushing the Dow to its worst December since the Great Depression. McConnell and his humiliated departing peer Paul Ryan have tolerated Trump’s racism, misogyny, and nativism, his wreckage of American alliances, his kleptocracy, and his allegiance to Vladimir Putin. They have tolerated as well his con job on the coal miners, steelworkers, and automobile-industry workers of his base. But they’ll be damned if they will stand for a president who threatens the bottom line of the GOP donor class.

The Mattis resignation is huge. It’s not that he was the last “adult in the room” but that as a retired military man and a secretary of Defense with access to both foreign intelligence and the inner workings of the White House, he knows treason when he sees it. His resignation letter stops just short of saying that Trump is actively serving the “interests” of China and Russia as they try “to shape a world consistent with their authoritarian model.” Certainly it is extraordinary that Trump consulted with the Turkish dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan when making his abrupt move in Syria but did not bother to consult the American general, Joseph Dunford, who serves as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. For all we know, Trump also was directly or indirectly in touch with Putin, the most vocal defender of his actions. ...

What we are likely to see in the meantime: further indictments of Trump family members and other close associates; a complete halt to governance in Washington whether there’s actually a government shutdown or not; new overt and covert threats to national security; a further effort by Trump to destabilize the Federal Reserve and assault its chairman; and perhaps, at last, an intervention by those Vichy Republicans, in the financial sector as well as in the capital, who see their own necks on the line.

But meanwhile, we have more than two weeks in store of watching an isolated madman rampaging through the gilded rooms of Mar-a-Lago, wreaking whatever damage he can on the country as the walls of justice continue to close in on him. Happy New Year!

Frank Rich (NY Mag)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:39 PM on December 21, 2018 [50 favorites]

It's a standard game in business, that contractors have to put up with all the time: "Here's a list of what I don't want; now go make something awesome, and I'll tell you whether or not I'll pay for it."

It's not like he has any idea what he wants, and he really doesn't want to be on the hook for "you asked for it!" when his horrible plans fall apart later. He wants to say, "I never liked that part; of course it wasn't going to work; I signed it for other reasons."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:39 PM on December 21, 2018 [14 favorites]

I think I missed a crucial piece of information here: why won’t the Senate vote for the House’s bill that includes the wall?
posted by gucci mane at 12:45 PM on December 21, 2018

#TrumpResign is trending number 1 in the US.
posted by bluesky43 at 12:45 PM on December 21, 2018 [45 favorites]

why won’t the Senate vote for the House’s bill that includes the wall?
It would require more than a few Democratic Senators to get to 60. If the vote even gets that far.
posted by Harry Caul at 12:47 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

I think I missed a crucial piece of information here: why won’t the Senate vote for the House’s bill that includes the wall?

Because appropriations bills require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and there are only 51 Republicans in the Senate, at least one of whom (Flake) has no interest in funding the wall, with another (Corker) being coy about whether he'd vote for it either.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:47 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made clear to senators that Trump didn’t provide any sense on what he may sign.

“He didn’t say because he didn’t know,” one GOP senator told CNN.

Well somebody get off their ass and go ask Ann Coulter.
posted by notyou at 12:52 PM on December 21, 2018 [30 favorites]

@GaryGrumbach
NBC News has learned Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg voted FROM HER HOSPITAL BED to refuse to let the government enforce Pres. Trump's proposed restriction on asylum. The court voted 5-4 to leave a lower court ruling in place that blocks enforcement of the crackdown
posted by bluesky43 at 12:53 PM on December 21, 2018 [142 favorites]

NBC News has learned Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg voted FROM HER HOSPITAL BED to refuse to let the government enforce Pres. Trump's proposed restriction on asylum

Elections fucking matter.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:56 PM on December 21, 2018 [92 favorites]

CREW FILES IG COMPLAINT AGAINST MATTHEW WHITAKER. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker should be investigated for violating the Standards of Ethical Conduct for Employees of the Executive Branch by ignoring a determination by career ethics officials that he should recuse himself from overseeing Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, according to a complaint filed today by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) with the Department of Justice (DOJ) Office of Inspector General. Under the Standards of Conduct, if an agency ethics official independently determines that an employee’s participation in a matter like the Mueller investigation would raise questions about his impartiality and should not participate in it, the employee is compelled to recuse.
posted by bluesky43 at 12:59 PM on December 21, 2018 [19 favorites]

Justices can vote in absentia? Google is not cooperating with my attempts to confirm this, all the results are about senate votes for justices.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:00 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

CREW FILES IG COMPLAINT AGAINST MATTHEW WHITAKER. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

That's just more legal fanfic, though, right? Like when all those orgs "filed ethics charges" against Kavanaugh with the DOJ? Is there any reason to think this will have some effect?
posted by Justinian at 1:01 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Drama City: Pence, Mulvaney and Kushner meeting with Schumer.
posted by waitingtoderail at 1:03 PM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

Justices can vote in absentia?

The USSC is very collegiate. They don't actually vote in the court where cases are argued.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:04 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

Justices can vote in absentia?

I suspect that the rules for justices are much less codified than the rules for Senate and House decisions. They're not dealing with a rotating crowd of 100-500+ people to keep organized.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:06 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

That's just more legal fanfic, though, right? Like when all those orgs "filed ethics charges" against Kavanaugh with the DOJ? Is there any reason to think this will have some effect?

I dunno the details here, but iirc it was CREW's suit against the EPA that busted the Pruitt corruption out into the open.
posted by notyou at 1:07 PM on December 21, 2018 [13 favorites]

There is absolutely no requirement for justices to be in the courthouse, or even in the same city, when they vote. They routinely decide things like emergency requests for a stay of execution during the summer recess, when one or all of them is doing a speaking tour or whatnot.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:08 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Drama City: Pence, Mulvaney and Kushner meeting with Schumer.

Assuming there's a deal of some sort -- how do you get the House to pass the new legislation in time to meet tonight's deadline?
posted by notyou at 1:09 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

I really hope Schumer understands he doesn't need to give an inch here. I'm sooooo not confident in him, but srsly Chuck tell these drowning fascists to go pound sand.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:12 PM on December 21, 2018 [31 favorites]

Pence, Mulvaney, and Kushner: none of them are Congresspeople. What could they be saying in this meeting with Schumer besides "Pass this budget We mean it!"? I don't get it. Although I kind of get why Schumer, being the ever-politician, would want to meet with them (to give some veneer of bipartisanship, or to let the clock run down, or to keep other people from talking to him—but still, why those three jackoffs and not an R-Senator jackoff?)
posted by Rykey at 1:14 PM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

Looks like the $1.6 billion for fencing is back on the table.
posted by waitingtoderail at 1:15 PM on December 21, 2018

My assumption is the "deal" will be the same agreement they had before; 1.3 or 1.6billion for border security. The question is whether Trump will declare victory and sign it as a face saving measure.
posted by Justinian at 1:15 PM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

I really hope Schumer understands he doesn't need to give an inch here. I'm sooooo not confident in him, but srsly Chuck tell these drowning fascists to go pound sand.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:12 PM on December 21

Where's Pelosi? If Schumer caves, well, it's been a rough year and this would do me in.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:15 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

At first, I was like: “WTF is Jar Jar Kushner doing in the meeting with Schumer?” Then I realized that these three goofs are the delegates Trump assigned to deal with this mess, since he’s incapable of handling it himself. So of course he sent his son-in-law, since he only trusts family.

But none of the three delegates — Pence, Mulvaney, Kushner — are seasoned veterans of congressional infighting. They’re out of their depth, and furthermore have no congressional clout as currently-serving congresscritters, either.

Given that they also probably don’t even know the parameters of what Trump’s minimum acceptable negotiables are, this whole intervention is doomed to fail.

On preview: echoing what Rykey said.
posted by darkstar at 1:17 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

Pelosi does't have any power until 10 days from now, Republicans have the votes without any Democratic support in the House.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:18 PM on December 21, 2018

What could they be saying in this meeting with Schumer besides "Pass this budget We mean it!"?

They could very well offer him ironclad promises on whatever, including "C'mon, you know nothing will ever get built" sort of rhetoric. And sadly we've seen Schumer cave to stuff like that before--repeatedly, even when the promises have been blatantly broken. Here's hoping he has finally learned from all that.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:18 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

As I understand it, the $1.6 billion would not require a new Senate vote. The Senate has already passed a DHS funding bill with that money -- what happened is that the House refused it, passed their own bill, and the two chambers were unable to come to a consensus in conference negotiations. At any time, the House can reverse course, vote on the $1.6B bill and send it to the president with no action by McConnell, Schumer, et al.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:19 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

What could they be saying in this meeting with Schumer besides "Pass this budget We mean it!"?
The 3 Stooges making this argument won't produce enough Republicans in the room. They're not members of Congress, and they don't know what they're doing. I think Schumer will enjoy the attention and the farce of it.
posted by Harry Caul at 1:21 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Okay but since he's been in this damn "tailspin" for two years now call me back when he actually crash lands goes up in a puff of orange smoke.

I so agree.

All the "surely this" cheering is is exhausting. And frankly at this point the proclamations and predictions that "Trump is finished" or "He' won't finish his term" or any sort of wishful speculation that Trump is going to be chased from office is simply belied by existing facts. Frankly, it's delusional.

After all the graft, scandals, firings, guilty pleas and fuck ups Trump's approval ratings have not even budged!

52.7 Disapprove
42.2 Approve

I mean it hardly seems possible. But there it is. We live in an upside down insane reality.

And until you see that disapprove number hit 70-80% Trump is going no where and there will be no political force to make him leave.
posted by You Stay 'Ere An Make Sure 'E Doesn't Leave at 1:24 PM on December 21, 2018 [37 favorites]

And it seems a lot of senators feel this way, they told Raju: "What’s really angering GOP senators is that Trump wouldn’t even say he would get behind the $1.6 billion in border security, which was the president’s initial request and agreed to by Senate appropriators of both parties, per three senators"

Senate Democrats! Why. The. Hell. are you giving him this?

As I understand it, the $1.6 billion would not require a new Senate vote. The Senate has already passed a DHS funding bill with that money -- what happened is that the House refused it, passed their own bill, and the two chambers were unable to come to a consensus in conference negotiations. At any time, the House can reverse course, vote on the $1.6B bill and send it to the president with no action by McConnell, Schumer, et al.

That makes sense, I guess.
posted by leotrotsky at 1:24 PM on December 21, 2018

Schumer must not budge an inch! If he does he goes down as the most spineless politician of the decade ( except for all the republicans of course ).
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:26 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Bloomberg's Laura Litvan: A Chuck Schumer spokesman says the minority leader told Mike Pence, Mick Mulvaney and Jared Kushner at a private meeting that any proposal for a border wall can't pass the Senate. The Democrats aren't making fresh offers.

CNN's Manu Raju: Pence leaves the Senate, walking towards the House
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:26 PM on December 21, 2018 [27 favorites]

CNN's Manu Raju: Pence leaves the Senate, walking towards the House.

I picture him endlessly shuttling back and forth between the two chambers, a gray-topped Mary Celeste, a constipated Tantalus, eyes haunted, never speaking, in the constant fruitless search to satisfy an impossible master.
posted by leotrotsky at 1:31 PM on December 21, 2018 [72 favorites]

NYT's Seung Min Kim: Pence, Kushner, Mulvaney walk to House side, they enter Ryan’s ceremonial office off House floor. Meadows and Jordan went in as well

NBC's Jonathan Allen: Just talked to a senior Dem aide on the Hill who marveled at the WH sending Pence to negotiate with Schumer: This is the same vice president who persuaded Senate Republicans that Trump was likely to sign their bill, prompting them to pass it a couple days ago, the aide said.

Slate's Jim Newell tweeted a readout from Schumer's office about the meeting with Trump's trio: "Leader Schumer reminded them that any proposal with funding for the wall will not pass the Senate and that two proposals that leader Pelosi and he offered the President in the Oval Office last week are both still on the table, as is Leader McConnell's proposal that the Senate unanimously passed two nights and could pass the House and avoid a shutdown if the President signaled he would sign it." (pic)
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:38 PM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

What's the strategy

Let me stop you right there.

No, really, there is no strategy. Trump just does things with no particular rhyme or reason based on what Fox is yelling at him at any given time. That makes formulating a strategy to deal with him difficult.
posted by Justinian at 1:47 PM on December 21, 2018 [28 favorites]

But none of the three delegates — Pence, Mulvaney, Kushner — are seasoned veterans of congressional infighting.

Mick Mulvaney was in the House of Representatives for 6 years, and was a state legislator another 4 years before that. Mike Pence was in the House for 12 years. Neither one is exactly Tip O'Neill, but they're the best Trump has got.

Senate Democrats! Why. The. Hell. are you giving him this? [re: $1.6 billion in funding]

That money is the continuation of existing funding for border security writ large. It does not represent any new wall. But hopefully Trump can back down and yell "SEE! I got $1.6 billion of WALL. I WIN!" Also, they cut it to $1.3 billion in the bill that's on the table, just to rub some salt in.
posted by msalt at 1:48 PM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

Schumer essentially dared them to do that. But unfortunately it relies on Paul Ryan having spine.
posted by msalt at 1:50 PM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

> The house and Senate could just do their part and throw it to Trump and go home, couldn't they?

The Senate did - they passed the CR unanimously (I think?).

The House was on track to, until Trump got stung enough by Ann Coulter's denunciations to call up the House Freedom Caucus and the brave Paul Ryan and tell them not to do that. So the House voted on the CR + 5 billion for Wall instead.

And now, here we are...

(WaPo is running a shutdown ticker - 7 hours 7 minutes to go.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 1:51 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

They could, but the House refused to do that, that's what lead us here. The House could've just passed the CR without the wall, but Ryan refused. And now McConnell changed positions to accommodate Ryan and Trump. The sticking point here isn't really McConnell, he's just being the yes man. It's Ryan and the House Republicans after Pelosi told Trump they didn't even have votes in the House for the Wall. They did this as much to spite her for that statement as to accommodate Trump.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:53 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Mike Pence was in the House for 12 years

Where his nickname was "Mike Dense". This ain't the Capitol Hill equivalent of the A-Team.
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:53 PM on December 21, 2018 [65 favorites]

I understand that but the house and Senate could just do their part and throw it to Trump and go home, couldn't they?

Except Paul Ryan never presented that option to the House for a vote. He could have just taken the Senate bill without the wall, put it up for a vote and everyone could go home. He would have gotten all of the Democratic votes and required only a couple of dozen Republicans to sign on. In fact, Republicans in the House were already prepared to do that until Trump suddenly changed his mind on the agreed deal and the House Republicans cowardly bowed and fell in line with Trump.

This is Paul Ryan's legacy. A flimflam man right to the very end.
posted by JackFlash at 1:55 PM on December 21, 2018 [31 favorites]

I stand corrected, msalt! How did I not recall that they had been congresscritters? Anyway, thank you for the correction.

It occurs to me that one GOP upside to even a doomed intervention is that, by attempting it, the Republicans can make it look like it’s those mean ol’ Democrats that are causing the shutdown, along the lines of: “Well, we tried working with them — even sent Pence, Mulvaney and Jared — but the Democrats weren’t interested in negotiating, President Trump did all he could, but the blame rests with Schumer and Pelosi.”
posted by darkstar at 1:55 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

zachlipton: So this is shaping up to be a real professional relationship built on trust and mutual respect.

Quoting like this, without specific reference to Mulvaney, to point out this could be said about SO MANY of Trump's "close associates."

Many will call him terrible names and undermine him in subtle ways, but all support him because they're in on the grift.

Calling Trump names while promoting his ghoulish policies and getting paid is like having your cake and eating it, too. You get to look like you're resisting and being "A Critical Adult," you know, without actually being one.

And you get paid.
posted by filthy light thief at 1:58 PM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

That all of this is unfolding on the shortest, darkest day of the year is just a bit on the nose.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 2:05 PM on December 21, 2018 [86 favorites]

Garrett Haake MSNBC

A very optimistic @JohnCornyn just told reporters it feels like... something... is happening to avert shutdown. He feels more optimistic w/ Kushner & @VP here negotiating with Dems

yeah, FWIW.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:07 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Usually it's not clear how strategy and the bully pulpit can affect these showdowns, but Trump's epic screw-ups show just how badly he blew it. A properly executed shutdown showdown would have us right now in a similar situation: Trump, House Republicans, and Senate Republicans all declaring they are ready to go with a bill that is exactly as it is but with the $5 billion, and then pinning the entire thing on 9 Democrats in the Senate. Then we'd have a traditional confrontation where, like the DACA fight in January, lots of centrists would be agreeing that with House and Senate majorities plus the president on board, it really was the fault of recalcitrant Senate Dems, especially given the 60-vote threshold that many in their heart of hearts feel is somewhat anti-democratic. But Trump screwed things up with his "mantle" comments, allowing the Senate to pass a no-wall bill, and making it clear the House was ready to pass the same. Basically he took a traditional shutdown scenario with each side plausibly blaming the other and completely ruined it, leading to a showdown of the sort we've almost never seen before where one side has preemptively vitiated all their own arguments. If nothing else, it's an interesting (negative) example of how strategy and public positioning do matter above and beyond who has the votes.
posted by chortly at 2:10 PM on December 21, 2018 [24 favorites]

'Yellow vest' protest movement spreads to Taiwan

So I'll ask the obvious question: Who's going to bring the Yellow Vest movement to the U.S.?

And the obvious follow-up: Is there ANY CHANCE it could be a left-energizing movement this time around, instead of a Tea Party Redux, propped up at every stage by right-wing oligarchs and their money?
posted by flug at 2:16 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

I don't understand what the "Yellow Vests" are protesting for in France. Okay, they didn't like the gas tax because it's regressive. Then it got canceled. Now they are just protesting against Macron, because he's an unpopular guy and they want him to resign? Would they rather have Le Pen? Because if so, yeah, they're a right wing anti immigrant anti-internationalism movement. Or are they pining for the more traditional (in France) socialist party leadership, only without the scandals?
posted by OnceUponATime at 2:19 PM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

Many will call him terrible names and undermine him in subtle ways, but all support him because they're in on the grift.

Speaking of which, Maggie Haberman Tells CNN ‘Disgusted’ Republicans Now Privately Admitting They Regret Supporting Trump (Mediaite)

Calling it a “critical moment,” Haberman reported that there was waning support for Trump from the right, saying “A number of conservatives who worked on the campaign and supported the president and now say, you know, I regret doing that, and this was a mistake, this administration is, you know, off the rails, and all of these investigations that are coming to a head will be a huge problem.”

She adding that these conservatives “disgusted” with details that have emerged from the Michael Cohen plea deal. In her eyes, investigations into Trump’s campaign are ” going to intensify as we get into the year” before bringing up impeachment. “It takes 20 Republican senators to vote in favor of impeachment. This could be a critical moment.”

As for subtly undermining Trump, please note when Haberman is willing to retweet criticism and negative coverage of Trump and when she'll actually do herself instead of passive-aggressively propping him up.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:20 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Who's going to bring the Yellow Vest movement to the U.S.?

Russians, Twitter, and Facebook; in no particular order.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 2:20 PM on December 21, 2018 [57 favorites]

Trump's epic screw-ups show just how badly he blew it

I think Republicans in Congress are probably pissed off about how this is all going down, but if the nightly news and the Sunday morning talk shows are talking about the shutdown instead of anything else that happened this week, its probably good news for Trump.
posted by parallellines at 2:30 PM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

I don't understand what the "Yellow Vests" are protesting for in France.

It is, basically, a semi-apolitical (in that it is decentralized and does not endorse specific ideological solutions) protest about income and class inequality. It's more complex than that, of course, but if you want the single-sentence answer that's about right.
posted by mightygodking at 2:30 PM on December 21, 2018 [18 favorites]

A number of conservatives who worked on the campaign and supported the president and now say, you know, I regret doing that, and this was a mistake, this administration is, you know, off the rails, and all of these investigations that are coming to a head will be a huge problem.

I'll take regret as a confession that you knew what you were doing. Now, you broke it you bought it. What are you gonna do?
posted by M-x shell at 2:30 PM on December 21, 2018 [15 favorites]

I don't understand what the "Yellow Vests" are protesting for in France.

Yellow Vest thread here.
posted by progosk at 2:37 PM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

To come back to this:

It’s not the grownups’ fault, exactly, that they can’t control Trump. But that just shows the basic faultiness of the metaphor. When toddlers play, it’s good to have a grownup in the room to supervise. But if a toddler is driving a car, it does no good to have a grownup in the passenger seat. Pretending that it’s somehow okay is the least grownup reaction possible.

I like this analogy, but think Yglesias goes in a weird direction with it. Of course it's good to have a grownup n the passenger seat, because any sane grownup would immediately go into an adrenaline-fueled panic and and lunge over to bodily remove that little fucker from the driver's seat before somebody gets hurt. That this hasn't happened doesn't disprove Trump-as-toddler, it disproves the presence of any actual grownups. If they were there, they would have acted. The cabinet and congressional leadership aren't helpless observers, they are choosing every day to let this continue to play out.
posted by contraption at 2:52 PM on December 21, 2018 [12 favorites]

He tweeted out a rendering of his "beautiful" Steel Slat Barrier.

It is a fence. A stupid, hideous fence with a nice closeup shot of the razor-sharp tips that the individual slats would have.

I don't know why the "beautiful" is bothering me so much, but it is. There's just no way anyone looked at this image and had that reaction.
posted by bluemilker at 2:53 PM on December 21, 2018 [16 favorites]

I just noticed that the "closeup" in the rendering isn't even vaguely the same shape as the slats in the full-sized image.

Literally everything in this story is stupid.
posted by bluemilker at 2:54 PM on December 21, 2018 [15 favorites]

The round cloud bubble magnifying into a rectangle made me laugh out loud I must say. It's a very disturbing picture tho.
posted by parki at 2:56 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

There's just no way anyone looked at this image and had that reaction.

Caddy boy Dan Scavino got a new version of Photoshop.
posted by holgate at 3:00 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

The round cloud bubble magnifying into a rectangle made me laugh out loud I must say. It's a very disturbing picture tho.

Real banality-of-evil stuff. Right now millions of people are fantasizing about what those spikes could do.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:04 PM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

I can't be the only country boy/mechanical engineer/person raised on a farm to look at that style of fence and suspect it would be highly vulnerable to a strategically placed (oh and commonly available, globally ubiquitous, 20 dollar or so price tag, 4 pound, highly portable, and nigh on indestructible) bottle-jack or two.

Seriously, other folks from rural areas that use tools are going to have a "whelp that's not secure at all" reaction to that. I'm not saying it will make a difference but it will exist at least and that's something, maybe.
posted by RolandOfEld at 3:07 PM on December 21, 2018 [41 favorites]

Whatever Trump wants built, it'll only be available from some company he (or a close Russian or Saudi friend) owns a big piece of.
posted by oneswellfoop at 3:10 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

I would like to see the Mexicans play it like a xylophone. Would drive CBP crazy.
posted by JackFlash at 3:12 PM on December 21, 2018 [18 favorites]

Yeah, I think it is a real mistake to debate the effectiveness of any proposed wall.
posted by Quonab at 3:13 PM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

S&P dropped to July 2017's level. It could take it under two trading days to return to the inauguration's level.
posted by ocschwar at 3:14 PM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

Some stuff has happened in the Senate, where members including McConnell are wearing "cranky coalition" buttons because they're annoyed at having to work (again, do not underestimate how personally they will take this). The motion to proceed on the House-passed spending bill was gaveled closed at 5:49pm, beating by one minute the record for the longest vote in modern Senate history (the stimulus from 2009, which was held open for Sen. Brown to get back from his mother's wake). Corker and Flake both switched their vote to yes, and Jones voted yes, plus Pence breaking the tie (it was 47-47 before Pence).

But, before we all scream "sellout," what they're saying is that they agreed to vote yes with the understanding that the next vote will be on a bill that can actually pass (if this only got 47 votes to proceed, it cannot get 60. There are not even 50 Republican votes for a wall). Corker says no more votes “until a global agreement is reached.” So they agreed on a process, but not on any actual deal that can become law. In other words, a bunch of activity that amounts to nothing, because they still don't have an agreement that can pass the House, Senate, and be signed by the President.

But don't look for anything to actually materialize anytime soon. @taragolshan: “If I were you all, I’d go home and have a scotch.” -@BobCorker to congressional press corps.
posted by zachlipton at 3:14 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

@nprpolitics

Shutdown negotiations continue: McConnell says the Senate will not take any more votes until an agreement is reached on a spending deal that would keep the government open

7:07 PM - 21 Dec 2018
posted by bluesky43 at 3:17 PM on December 21, 2018

Not painting the imaginary fence white feels like a real missed opportunity.
posted by box at 3:17 PM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

I just noticed that the "closeup" in the rendering isn't even vaguely the same shape as the slats in the full-sized image.

One of the commenters points out that with the jeep for scale "there’s at least 18-24 inches between each slat."
posted by kirkaracha at 3:17 PM on December 21, 2018 [14 favorites]

@SeemaCMS (Seema Verma, Administrator of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services):The CMS sleigh has made deliveries to Kansas, Rhode Island, Michigan, & Maine this week to drop off signed #Medicaid waivers. Christmas came early for these Governors & we are proud to support local innovation all across this great country!

The sheer glee these people take in taking away health care from poor people is disgusting. "Merry Christmas; please die" is what her tweet amounts to.
posted by zachlipton at 3:17 PM on December 21, 2018 [47 favorites]

Follow-up on CREW FILES IG COMPLAINT AGAINST MATTHEW WHITAKER. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington and whether the complaint will have any effect:

My impression is that the folks at CREW generally know what they're doing.

The CREW website has a page describing the Inspector General complaint and a link to the IG complaint itself. They seem to think this is a pretty clear-cut thing:

Under the Standards of Conduct, if an agency ethics official independently determines that an employee’s participation in a matter like the Mueller investigation would raise questions about his impartiality and should not participate in it, the employee is compelled to recuse. ...

... Whitaker also appears to rely on an invented distinction between a determination by ethics officials and a nonexistent “formal” type of determination. The Standards of Conduct make no such distinction and do not provide for a “formal” determination. Therefore, the agency ethics officials’ conclusion was itself the determination.

They also sent two letters to the Department of Justice - a letter on November 8 and another letter on November 14 - providing reasons that Whitaker must recuse himself, "including his personal relationship with a key witness in the investigations." A search of that Nov. 8 letter reveals:

Mr. Whitaker reportedly has a personal and political relationship with Sam Clovis, the former chief policy adviser and national co-chairman of the 2016 Trump campaign as well as a key witness in the Russia investigation.32 That relationship arises from Mr. Whitaker having previously served as the chairman of Mr. Clovis’ unsuccessful 2014 campaign for Iowa State Treasurer.33 Mr. Clovis also reportedly has “kept up” with Mr. Whitaker and said that they still “regularly text” one another, as recently as within the last few weeks.34 In an interview with the Washington Post yesterday, Colvis said that he and Whitaker were “currently friends” and that he had texted Whitaker congratulations when he became acting Attorney General.35

Mr. Clovis played a significant role as a witness to key events under investigation by the Special Counsel.

CREW does a lot of good work on a lot of important issues. Their press release page shows their involvement in suing DHS over family separation (at least 2 suits, if I'm reading correctly), an IRS complaint over dark money, and an important ruling in another dark money case - CREW sued the FEC and Crossroads GPS over lack of disclosures, and the decision "declares that the law unambiguously commands more disclosure than the FEC has required in 30 years."

I doubt they win every suit they file, but they've had some significant victories, and I'd rather have them try and lose than just assume they'll never prevail.

I am a fan of CREW.
posted by kristi at 3:20 PM on December 21, 2018 [39 favorites]

Seriously, other folks from rural areas that use tools are going to have a "whelp that's not secure at all" reaction to that. I'm not saying it will make a difference but it will exist at least and that's something, maybe.

None of these designs are secure against ACTUAL HUMAN BEINGS if they don't come with adequate staffing of the border patrol with actual human beings.

And this is where it gets really bad. The BCP is one of the least pleasant ways to make a living with the use of a badge and a gun. And it doesn't pay that great either.

So to expand the BCP to enough size to make this wall hermetic like Trump's addled mind wants, requires giving a badge and a gun to anyone who steps forward to join the BCP and has a pulse.

So thousands more idiots with badges and guns. Feeling safe now?
posted by ocschwar at 3:23 PM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

It's at times like these that I'm thankful for farsighted lawmakers who made raising the debt ceiling automatic in order to avoid playing a dangerous game of chicken like this with the global economy.

They did do that, right?
posted by Rhaomi at 3:24 PM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

@SeemaCMS (Seema Verma, Administrator of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services):The CMS sleigh has made deliveries to Kansas, Rhode Island, Michigan, & Maine this week to drop off signed #Medicaid waivers. Christmas came early for these Governors & we are proud to support local innovation all across this great country!

The sheer glee these people take in taking away health care from poor people is disgusting. "Merry Christmas; please die" is what her tweet amounts to.

It takes a lot of gall to refer to work requirement additions as "community engagement demonstrations". Ugh.
posted by bassooner at 3:27 PM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

@chrisgeidner: BREAKING: The Supreme Court denies the Trump administration’s request to let it enforce its new asylum ban while the case proceeds in court. The decision was 5-4, with Chief Justice Roberts joining his more liberal colleagues in denying DOJ’s stay request.

I want to jump back to this for a second, because it's pretty disturbing. First, more "Roberts is the new swing vote." The ruling they just voted 5-4 to uphold was written by Judge Bybee, of the torture memos fame. His opinion was straightforward: the plain language of the Immigration and Naturalization Act says you can't do that, and DHS is trying to twist its words beyond any reasonable meaning. This is the ruling that four Justices were happy to sign on to temporarily stopping, pending further proceedings in the case.

The background here is that the original district court ruling from Judge Tigar was heavily criticized by Trump, who declared the judge to be an "Obama judge." That prompted a straight-up rebuke from Chief Justice Roberts, who now voted with the liberal judges to keep the administration from enforcing the asylum ban.

It's terrifying that four Justices voted to stay a ruling that really involves reading an unambiguous law and saying "you can't do that." Since it's just a stay application, there's no opinion or explanation from the Supreme Court that would indicate why they came to this conclusion, but decisions like this say a lot about what the Court has become.
posted by zachlipton at 3:36 PM on December 21, 2018 [44 favorites]

they still don't have an agreement that can pass the House, Senate, and be signed by the President.

Sorry, this timeline just won't allow me to be optimistic any more. I'm just going to assume such an agreement will be reached, the shutdown will be averted, and Trump will sign some mangled version of a budget that has something favorable to his fucking wall plan in it. We've been through this too many times to expect otherwise.
posted by Rykey at 3:40 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

It's at times like these that I'm thankful for farsighted lawmakers who made raising the debt ceiling automatic in order to avoid playing a dangerous game of chicken like this with the global economy.

Not yet, but Democrats will in January when they retake the House, and the debt ceiling is not an issue before then. Don't worry about that one specific thing, there's enough else to worry about.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:43 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

More from CNN's Manu Raju:

Expect a long night of talks. Cornyn said he thinks a deal could come together “within hours,” suggested $1.6B for border security as agreed to by Senate appropriators

Cornyn told @BresPolitico and me that the negotiation will continue though the night. “There’s not going to be a vote tonight.” I asked him if we could take that to the bank, he said: “You could take it to the bank.”

What this means then is that unless there’s an agreement by unanimous consent, there would be a partial government shutdown at midnight, heading into the weekend.

Walking from the Senate side to the House side, Rep. Mark Meadows said bringing up $1.6B agreed to by Senate appropriators wouldn’t fly with him. “1.6B in terms of where we were two weeks ago is not acceptable”

It's going to be a long, long night (literally and figuratively).
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:48 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

I’m kind of wondering if lawmakers can’t use Individual-1’s desire to get his butt to Florida and dangle it in front of him, like a carrot, to get him to sign something, anything? He’s pretty pliable, and tends to go with whatever is in his face at any given moment.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:55 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Trump Used to Write Out His Tweets in Sharpie

Trump used to have McConney print out his Twitter mentions, then he’d write his responses on paper with a Sharpie pen for McConney to send out from his account. (He’d apparently dictate his non-reply posts over the phone.) Sometimes, Trump would even consult with McConney and Melania to help him, three minds working on a single terrible post.

posted by kirkaracha at 3:57 PM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

So, as I understand it, all the House needs to do is AGAIN scrap the content of the bill, and put the original content, passed by the senate, vote for it, and send it to Trump to be signed and Schumer's original "we have 2 plans to keep government running" wins?

What worries me is that all this is reinforcing Trump's narcissism. He's pushed Jesus Christ's birthday party off the front page, so for him this is a win.
posted by mikelieman at 3:58 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

@GarrettHaake: Senators being told to head home for the night, and that they won't be called back unless there's an honest-to-goodness deal... and with 24 hour notice. That means a partial government shutdown tonight.

The House already left. Shut it down (partially, what's open and what's closed)
posted by zachlipton at 3:58 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

Vox has a thing on how Democrats are trying to craft the policy of a Green New Deal. There's a lot to digest, but I had a thought that I don't know where to put. It isn't about the Green New Deal, so it doesn't belong in that thread, it belongs in the general politics thing, because it's "theory", but here goes.

I just translated a strategy white paper about where China wants to be in 2050. There's some stuff in there about innovation, in fact it was the central theme of the paper, but they were talking about nothing but "innovation as a supporting factor in our strategy to lead the world in science and technology". Well, um, how's that doing? "Faith that the public sector can be effective" from Democrats is kind of a dumb talking point in an era where China has a stupefyingly effective public sector, especially in green policy. Except that so far, they've been playing catch-up. China happily admits as much, and speaking with a broad brush, if you look at their foreign policy, it mostly involves dumping money on investments that are good ideas anyway. If the paper I translated is any guide, the US still leads by a long mile in figuring out the how of development. China throws money behind the West's second-order policy recommendations and builds alliances where the West won't for Probably Good Reasons (Except Did You See China in the Corner Oh You Didn't It Might Have Been Important).

That Green New Deal article pays an uncomfortable amount of lip service to the idea that government really honestly can be effective just give it a chance! The thought I had was, um, China...is kind of proof that it can be incredibly effective, and the Republicans are leaving us with literally no public sector to counter theirs, and why aren't the Democrats talking more about that? It seems like a crucially important junction between the "effectiveness-of-government" and "clear-eyed about our rivals" talking points.

China is balls-out about fostering innovation within an authoritarian system. They've figured out that you don't need democracy for a market economy to function (their One Big Innovation, and how much of it is based on catch-up? good luck figuring that out for another 20 years, the data ain't ready), but the US/West has yet to prove that you can have an effective public sector WITH democracy in the modern era. It seems like these are the outlines of the cold war to come, and it would be nice if Democrats would talk about it instead of still concede Republican talking points.
posted by saysthis at 4:04 PM on December 21, 2018 [27 favorites]

This time around my agency is one of the ones already fully funded, we're not affected, and service to the public will continue (well, sort of, basically everyone is on leave all next week anyway). Which is good for me, it'd be a real problem if I had to sign in for 15 mins only to get furlough papers on Monday Christmas Eve when I'm supposed to be driving 600 miles on Sunday.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:07 PM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

I’m kind of wondering if lawmakers can’t use Individual-1’s desire to get his butt to Florida and dangle it in front of him, like a carrot, to get him to sign something, anything?

So far, he signs everything put in front of him. I've come to believe all this posturing about "he won't sign" is intra-congressional drama. He doesn't want to not-sign, and he really doesn't want to veto - then the media blasts him for being the bad guy who's causing the problems.

He doesn't want news headlines about "Congress reached bipartisan agreement; President shut it down." He wants to sign things and declare, "I, personally, stopped the shutdown and kept the government functioning. It's running today on my signature!"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:08 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

I have a feeling that someone created that Steel Slat Barrier illustration based on a Sharpie drawing by Trump. There's no way that came from a fully functioning brain.
posted by diogenes at 4:25 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

it just wouldn't be 2018 if it didn't end on a ham-handed metaphor:

NY Daily News: Man climbs National Christmas Tree in Washington, D.C., and negotiators are trying to talk him down

posted by murphy slaw at 4:25 PM on December 21, 2018 [20 favorites]

it just wouldn't be 2018 if it didn't end on a ham-handed metaphor:

Oh don't sell 2018 short. There's 10 days of crazy left.

And who knows what wonders 2019 will bring?
posted by kirkaracha at 4:28 PM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

Trump "just refounded Isis" says Fox's Brian Kilmeade to Sarah Sanders [real]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:28 PM on December 21, 2018 [20 favorites]

Nostalgia for the well-run machine of the Trump administration (Alexandra Petri, WaPo)

Things previously were on the rails, we are now learning. When we remember the years 2017 and 2018, we will do so wistfully. “Things were on the rails then,” we will say. “Remember Scaramucci? Remember how organized and unchaotic the Trump White House was?” (I am picturing us huddled over a fire as we say this, watching the White House in the distance to see whether it has released the series of smoke signals that indicates war.)

“Why, Gen. Kelly once kept the door to the president’s office shut for two hours at a time.”

“One hour,” someone else around the fire will correct. “But it was still impressive.”

For now, we are living in the good times! Look around you. Take in deep lungfuls of the still-breathable air. A live bear is not in charge of the joint chiefs. Mueller is still investigating.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:31 PM on December 21, 2018 [23 favorites]

I hope Aunt Polly makes Trump whitewash this dang fence, one way or another.
posted by Elmore at 4:33 PM on December 21, 2018 [4 favorites]

Trump "just refounded Isis" says Fox's Brian Kilmeade to Sarah Sanders
One of the Fox Friends just gave a dissenting opinion? This may be a turning point... or Kilmeade is lobbying for a buyout...
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:37 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

For the wall’s $5.7 billion, every child in America could have access to Universal Pre-K.

Yet when we propose the SAME $, we’re told Universal Edu is a “fantasy”& asked “how are you going to pay for it”

Education is an investment in society that yields returns.
Walls are waste.
posted by gucci mane at 4:44 PM on December 21, 2018 [132 favorites]

saysthis, there are European countries (like the Netherlands where I am now) that have democracy and a functioning public sector. It's totally possible, the US just needs to be willing to look beyond it's own borders for better ways to do democracy. Which, as an American, I know they won't, unfortunately.
posted by antinomia at 4:45 PM on December 21, 2018 [20 favorites]

CNN, Trump lashed out at Whitaker after explosive Cohen revelations

President Donald Trump has at least twice in the past few weeks vented to his acting attorney general, angered by federal prosecutors who referenced the President's actions in crimes his former lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

Trump was frustrated, the sources said, that prosecutors Matt Whitaker oversees filed charges that made Trump look bad. None of the sources suggested that the President directed Whitaker to stop the investigation, but rather lashed out at what he felt was an unfair situation.
The first known instance took place when Trump made his displeasure clear to acting attorney general Matt Whitaker after Cohen pleaded guilty November 29 to lying to Congress about a proposed Trump Tower project in Moscow. Whitaker had only been on the job a few weeks following Trump's firing of Jeff Sessions.

Over a week later, Trump again voiced his anger at Whitaker after prosecutors in Manhattan officially implicated the President in a hush-money scheme to buy the silence of women around the 2016 campaign -- something Trump fiercely maintains isn't an illegal campaign contribution. Pointing to articles he said supported his position, Trump pressed Whitaker on why more wasn't being done to control prosecutors in New York who brought the charges in the first place, suggesting they were going rouge.

posted by zachlipton at 4:48 PM on December 21, 2018 [10 favorites]

Pointing to articles he said supported his position

By this, I assume they mean “Pointing to video clips from selective broadcasting.”
posted by Brak at 4:52 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

Trump pressed Whitaker on why more wasn't being done to control prosecutors in New York who brought the charges in the first place, suggesting they were going rouge.

This is obstruction of justice. Also it's a day that ends in Y.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:58 PM on December 21, 2018 [52 favorites]

the US/West has yet to prove that you can have an effective public sector WITH democracy in the modern era

ah, BS, 1940-1980 disproves this definitively unless your definition of modern differs sufficiently from mine that we will have fight. The reason US public sector shies is fucked up is that IT WAS DISMANTLED BY THE FUCKING REPUBLICANS AND FUCK THEM FOREVER
posted by mwhybark at 4:59 PM on December 21, 2018 [41 favorites]

Trump was frustrated, the sources said, that prosecutors Matt Whitaker oversees filed charges that made Trump look bad.

... said every dictator ever, essentially.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:05 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

Roll Call, Violence Against Women Act to Lapse — Again
posted by zachlipton at 5:17 PM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

paul ryan, leaving the speakership with the gravitas and respect for the institution that we've come to expect:

(tweets from Billy House, the eponysterical bloomberg congressional correspondent)

1) Here's the latest news from an emergency House Rules Committee meeting: The House WILL proceed with a vote tomorrow on a bill sought by Paul Ryan's home-state cheese producers, and others! For real.

2) As a potential shutdown looms in just hours, Republicans on the Rules Committee took time to advance the measure to amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act to set a new definition of “natural cheese."

3) The Rules Committee action will now give the bill on Saturday its 2nd shot at passage in 3 days, under regular order, after having failed to get two-thirds majority support on Thursday in a speedier, streamlined suspension process.

4) Consumer Reports warns this "seemingly mundane bill" would allow cheese to be labeled 'natural' even if including artificial ingredients or synthetic substances, like yellow food dye, or was produced using methods or pesticides consumers do not consider “natural.”

5) Otherwise known as 'The Codifying Useful Regulatory Definitions (CURD) Act,' the measure passed Senate by voice vote on Dec. 13, under sponsorship of Wisc. Senators Johnson and Baldwin, & Idaho GOP Sens. Risch and Crapo. Rep. Long of Missouri was sponsor of a House version.

6) Rules top Democrat McGovern during meeting said he was mystified this cheese bill was brought up under emergency rules, as hundreds of thousands of federal workers face furloughs, and pay stoppage, possibly in hours. E & C top Dem Pallone said he told Ryan he opposed this move.

"I just find it a little bit ridiculous that we are talking about cheese and not keeping government open...I do think it's a little strange," said McGovern, during the meeting.

posted by murphy slaw at 5:23 PM on December 21, 2018 [31 favorites]

5) Otherwise known as 'The Codifying Useful Regulatory Definitions (CURD) Act,' the measure passed Senate by voice vote on Dec. 13, under sponsorship of Wisc. Senators Johnson and Baldwin, & Idaho GOP Sens. Risch and Crapo. Rep. Long of Missouri was sponsor of a House version.

Cheese Rules Everything Around Me
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:27 PM on December 21, 2018 [26 favorites]

The Capitol Lounge in DC is once again offering Shutdown Cocktails (Facebook link)...$5 with a Federal employee ID during the shutdown. Offerings include:

Nothing Really Mattis: Mad Dog 20/20 and Vodka - Order It, Drink It, and Leave
The AOC Bourgeoisie: Champagne Brut, Peach, Puerto Rican Heat
Butina's on the Rocks with...what else...Stoli.

Ordinarily I'd always go for the gin-based cocktail, but the name - "Stephen Miller's Hair Affair" - means it's a hard pass from me.
posted by Preserver at 5:27 PM on December 21, 2018 [13 favorites]

Oh, look. More theater from the president. He tweets a picture of "Some of the many Bills that I am signing in the Oval Office right now."

Only, he's signing a BLANK PIECE OF PAPER.
posted by zakur at 5:28 PM on December 21, 2018 [48 favorites]

would allow cheese to be labeled 'natural' even if including artificial ingredients or synthetic substances, like yellow food dye, or was produced using methods or pesticides consumers do not consider “natural.”

Oh god, this reminds me of the Wisconsin butter grading cartel.
posted by holgate at 5:33 PM on December 21, 2018 [5 favorites]

Only, he's signing a BLANK PIECE OF PAPER.

I'm more concerned about the lost spaceman in the window behind him.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:40 PM on December 21, 2018 [19 favorites]

It's incredible that they keep taking official pictures that make him look like a tiny baby sitting awkwardly behind the desk.

Would you prefer a picture of him sitting at a kids desk?
posted by kirkaracha at 5:43 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

Somewhere out there it's somebody's job for the night to discretely dispose of all those "bills" Trump was given to "sign" in order to keep him occupied for a bit while the adults talked.
posted by The Card Cheat at 20:39 on 12/21

It's actually their job to take the papers he tears apart and tape them back together, in accordance with the presidential records act.
posted by I paid money to offer this... insight? at 5:59 PM on December 21, 2018 [21 favorites]

Valid question from somebody in the replies to Trump's tweet (paraphrased): If you're so busy right now, why were you planning to leave all that work to go to Mar-a-Lago?
posted by Rykey at 6:07 PM on December 21, 2018 [9 favorites]

I'm beginning to that that Paul Ryan's genius strategy is to just stretch things out to December 31 and then say "See ya, suckers!"
posted by JackFlash at 6:18 PM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

He does, in fact, have a number of bills to sign. Most of them rename post offices, but I didn't say they were important bills. And really, what could be more important than renaming the post office in Renton, Washington the "James Marshall 'Jimi' Hendrix Post Office Building?"
posted by zachlipton at 6:20 PM on December 21, 2018 [24 favorites]

Fox News demanded a government shutdown — and got one (Jane Coaston, Vox)

A lot of conservatives with big platforms were very, very angry at Trump this week.

posted by ZeusHumms at 6:29 PM on December 21, 2018 [12 favorites]

China is balls-out about fostering innovation within an authoritarian system. They've figured out that you don't need democracy for a market economy to function (their One Big Innovation, and how much of it is based on catch-up? good luck figuring that out for another 20 years, the data ain't ready), but the US/West has yet to prove that you can have an effective public sector WITH democracy in the modern era. It seems like these are the outlines of the cold war to come, and it would be nice if Democrats would talk about it instead of still concede Republican talking points.

China is certainly fostering massive implementation. Balls out innovation is yet to really be seen.
posted by srboisvert at 6:30 PM on December 21, 2018

Oh god, this reminds me of the Wisconsin butter grading cartel.

If the last 48 hours have taught us anything, it’s that some care more about the curds than they do the Kurds.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:38 PM on December 21, 2018 [56 favorites]

That Vox piece ZeusHumms linked has an interesting paragraph that may show how Coulter got under Trump's skin.

That piece may have gotten her unfollowed on Twitter by the president. Then she went on the Daily Caller’s podcast to say that the entire purpose of Trump’s presidency appears to be “making sure Ivanka and Jared can make money.” But by Wednesday evening, Trump was arguing that the wall would in fact be built, “one way or the other,” saying that perhaps the military could construct it

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:38 PM on December 21, 2018 [2 favorites]

My senator Brian Schatz's tweet game is on point.
posted by Joey Michaels at 6:56 PM on December 21, 2018 [11 favorites]

What if we declared that selling out our allies and advancing our adversaries' interests over our own was an impeachable offense in and of itself?

Hell yeah. We could call it a "high crime."
posted by Mental Wimp at 6:57 PM on December 21, 2018 [26 favorites]

Daily Beast: Bolton’s Hawkish Syria Plan Backfired, Pushing Trump to Get Out—The national security adviser expanded U.S. goals in Syria to challenge Iran. But Trump wasn’t on board, senior officials say, and Turkey took an opportunity to push the U.S. out.

A fateful decision by national security adviser John Bolton to expand the United States’ goals in Syria backfired, and is a key reason why President Donald Trump ordered a total withdrawal of U.S. troops, two senior administration officials told The Daily Beast.

Bolton in September added a second mission to the the already open-ended operation in Syria. In addition to destroying the so-called Islamic State, U.S. troops would stay in Syria indefinitely, forcing Iranian forces there to eventually withdraw.[…]

It wasn’t just Trump who was uncomfortable. Officials said the expanded, open-ended mission was provocative to Turkey, who saw confirmation of their suspicions that the U.S. was presiding over the de facto creation of a northeastern Syrian Kurdish mini-state on its border, a prospect it considered intolerable.

The U.S. officials said that Turkey used Bolton and [State Department’s envoy on Syria, Ambassador Jim] Jeffrey’s expanded mission as an opportunity to manufacture a crisis that proved to be decisive.[…]

During a Dec. 14 phone call first reported by the AP, Erdogan told Trump that his anti-ISIS mission was accomplished, and questioned the rationale of a prolonged U.S. deployment, with the prospect of a Turkish invasion hanging overhead. Erdogan, who requested the call, told Trump that Turkey could handle the ISIS threat in the future and then asked him: if ISIS is 99 percent defeated, “Why are you still there?”

One of the senior administration officials confirmed those details to The Daily Beast.

“Erdogan was like, look, I’m going in and the president was like okay, I’ll come out,” the senior official said — a response that shocked both U.S. officials and even Erdogan, who warned Trump against a precipitous pull-out.

CNN, Trump lashed out at Whitaker after explosive Cohen revelations

Now isn't that an interesting batch of revelations for "multiple sources" to leak a day after we learned Whitaker ignored DoJ ethics recommendations that he should recuse himself from the Mueller investigation. Likewise, why did this get dumped on the Friday before Xmas weekend, during a government shutdown, no less?

Perhaps I've grown cynical in the Age of Trump, but Trump complaining to his AAG about a criminal case in which he was implicated is the least surprising news we've received all day. What's one more obstruction of justice charge for Trump? And are we expected to believe Trump never brought up Mueller with Whitaker during his tenure at the DoJ? It would be comforting to think that these leaks are from right-thinking DoJ members who want to shiv the Big Dick Toilet salesman turned AAG, but Team Trump has been deploying modified limited hangouts since practically the beginning of the administration. It makes me wonder if this is something Whitaker is willing to cop to now because there's worse we don't know or yet to come.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:00 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

Was told today that as a contractor our work is paid for and we're still doing work. Now Feds who oversee us can NOT make decisions so, if this thing lasts awhile we'll be doing a lot of busy work because the odds the overseers won't have changes updates etc is pretty slim.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 8:07 PM on December 21, 2018 [3 favorites]

Great job, @jack! You’ve protected a cruel Republican woman from experiencing criticism of her policy choices.

If it's any comfort, she seems to be getting plenty of criticism otherwise.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:14 PM on December 21, 2018 [8 favorites]

Again: government shutdowns only happen because of the unique way the United States federal government is funded. When that happens in other industrialised democracies, a government that can't pass a supply bill is replaced by one that can.
posted by holgate at 8:56 PM on December 21, 2018 [23 favorites]

@JenniferJJacobs:

BREAKING: Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell as his frustration has intensified after this week’s interest-rate increase and months of stock-market losses.

Advisers close to Trump aren’t convinced he will try to do it, but say he wants to. Trump has talked privately about wanting to fire the Fed chair many times in past few days.

Any such attempt would have potentially devastating ripple effects on markets, undermining investors’ confidence in Fed’s ability to shepherd the economy without political interference.

It’s unclear how much legal authority the president has to fire Jay Powell. And at least one of Trump’s economic advisers, Kudlow, has said a president can’t fire Federal Reserve chair without cause. That hasn’t stopped Trump from expressing his desire to get rid of Powell.

This seems like a good time for a reminder that Trump's business was a teetering pile of debt, and there's every reason to think his economic policy judgements would be based on the needs of his business.
posted by zachlipton at 8:59 PM on December 21, 2018 [50 favorites]

Jebus Crackers, threatening to fire the Fed chair. On top of everything else, the trade wars, the erratic foreign policy, the understaffing and churn of Admin officials, the government shutdown...

It’s almost as if he’s trying to destabilize the economy.
posted by darkstar at 9:12 PM on December 21, 2018 [34 favorites]

What was it that Hillary said? Here’s a man that couldn’t make money with a casino? And yet, Republicans voted for him anyway. Enjoy your bankruptcy.
posted by valkane at 9:15 PM on December 21, 2018 [73 favorites]

Like I said in the last megathread, this week has been about testing the limits of presidential power. There's a long-standing argument that the Fed's paranoia about inflation means it will gladly fuck over growth (especially wage growth) but the manchild gave up his right to participate in that argument when he started his bullshit mercantilist trade war.
posted by holgate at 9:26 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

And now The Trump Shutdown has begun.

Merry Christmas!
posted by mmoncur at 9:32 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

I hope he doesn’t get a cent for the wall. Anytime I go south to Tubac, Sierra Vista, Bieber, etc, I have to go through a Border Patrol checkpoint. These things are getting more and more intimidating. It’s all theater, and as a white person I just get waved through, but not everyone down here has that privilege. Every car gets a sniff from the drug dog on duty. At night, harsh lights everywhere. I remember when I used to be able to drive south and not have to deal with these things.

On another note... It’s been almost two years and the firehose of “what the hell just happened” hasn’t slowed down; it’s going stronger than ever. I saw a bumper sticker today that said “I can’t even remember what I was angry about before Trump.” Sums it up perfectly.
posted by azpenguin at 9:37 PM on December 21, 2018 [56 favorites]

Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell as his frustration has intensified after this week’s interest-rate increase and months of stock-market losses

I'm thinking Trump is due to receive a you-have-messed-with-the-primal-forces-of-nature speech, now that his impulsive batshittery is spooking the markets. I'm just not sure if I believe there's a Ned Beatty.
posted by condour75 at 10:00 PM on December 21, 2018 [1 favorite]

After their repeated refusal to pay for his Border Wall, President Trump has shut down the Mexican Government.

Wait. [*SQUINTS*]

Correction, President Trump has shut down the United States Government. That is all.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:10 PM on December 21, 2018 [17 favorites]

I just presume that, like Arnold Schwarzenegger in Jingle All The Way, Trump is rushing to get everything on Putin's gift list
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 10:22 PM on December 21, 2018 [7 favorites]

Well one silver lining is a bunch of ICE agents won’t get paychecks for a while
posted by The Whelk at 10:30 PM on December 21, 2018 [22 favorites]

his impulsive batshittery is spooking the markets.
It should have spooked the markets from day one. But we can now be hopeful that some-or-all of the "he's doing dumbass things... but I look at my portfolio and what's not to love?" contingent will be abandoning him, shrinking his base until you can drown it in a bathtub (to re-phrase Grover Norquist's awful quote).

Here, have a chuckle via the good old MAD Magazine... "SUGGESTED MESSAGES FOR TRUMP'S THANK YOU HOTLINE"
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:58 PM on December 21, 2018 [6 favorites]

So I'm reading a New York Times article about the shutdown and it says here that "more than 420000 people" (!!!) will "work without pay", including a lot of law enforcement and border security type people. Now, a question: does "work without pay" here actually mean that they will never, at any point, get paid for the hours worked even when a spending bill eventually passes or are the hours they work just logged but the paychecks for those hours won't be issued until there is money to go around again?

Both are, of course, completely unacceptable and indicative of a dysfunctional system that has completely managed to distance itself from what a functioning government is. I'm just interested in the degree of fucked-up-ness.
posted by Soi-hah at 1:04 AM on December 22, 2018

more than 420000 people" (!!!) will "work without pay", including a lot of law enforcement and border security type people. Now, a question: does "work without pay" here actually mean that they will never, at any point, get paid for the hours worked even when a spending bill eventually passes or are the hours they work just logged but the paychecks for those hours won't be issued until there is money to go around again?

Of all the U.S. Gov shutdowns I recall, rank-and-file employees do get paid when the shutdown is over. It has to be explicitly ordered, but I can't recall a time that it has not happened.

Telling those same employees they may not have a paycheck right before Christmas? That's... not the tack I would take.

I would say "Merry Christmas, you are not getting paid" along with all of the other bizzarro things going on in the last few days (a trump thank you hotline? WTAF!) (h/t to oneswellfoop for pointing that out. link.)would be the "surely this" moment we have been talking about for a billion Scaramuccis, and I am beginning to think so, but it's 4:30 in the morning and I haven't had a solid night of sleep since last Friday, so I am not betting on that horse just yet.

Maybe after some more sleep, I can semi-adequately put all these pieces over the last 48 hours together in a way that shows we may have actually made it to surely this. If I could do that it, it would be the least I could offer for the Quonsar season.

On Preview: Exceptional_Hubris, yeah I was wondering about the contractors. I figured they either got hosed or they got paid to sit around and do nothing since there was nothing they were allowed to do. The hourlies getting short shrift.... well, i don't have words for how terrible that is.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 2:52 AM on December 22, 2018 [4 favorites]

I'm a federal contractor and I'm still waiting to hear whether I can "work" through the shutdown and get paid. If not, I lose that money and don't get it back later.
posted by runcibleshaw at 4:16 AM on December 22, 2018 [20 favorites]

BREAKING: Trump has discussed firing Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell as his frustration has intensified after this week’s interest-rate increase and months of stock-market losses.

It's no surprise now Trump's screw-ups with the economy are undeniable that he's looking for someone to blame.

WaPo: As Stocks Drop, Trump Fears He’s Losing His Best Argument For Reelection

President Trump has kept an almost obsessive watch on the stock market as it has lurched lower in recent weeks, tuning in to Fox Business and checking in with Lou Dobbs, a host on the network.

The president has complained to aides about how unfair it is that he is blamed for the market’s slide and for growing unease about an economic slowdown in the months to come, say current and former officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

And he has needled Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell about the pace at which the central bank has raised short-term interest rates.

The lower the market drops, the more the president worries that he is losing his most potent argument for reelection, several of the officials said.

He also refuses to acknowledge that his trade war with China has backfired and that his tariffs are hurting the U.S. economy:

The president often says China has more to lose than he does, and the Chinese are feeling the pressure. He is not going to back off the tariffs, several people said, and actually takes joy in how much Republicans dislike them.[…]

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and top economic adviser Larry Kudlow have expressed concerns about the tariffs privately. But although Kudlow doesn’t like them, he has adopted the viewpoint that they are part of a broader strategy to target China.

Trump’s top economic and trade advisers blanketed the airwaves in recent days in an attempt to increase confidence in the U.S.-China trade talks and to play down any concerns about the market decline, but a lot remains to be bridged between the two sides in the next 90 days.[…]

The president has blamed a number of his officials for the sentiment shift on Wall Street, but he rants continually about Powell. At Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida over Thanksgiving, the president complained about Powell extensively, guests said.

While Trump looks for a scapegoat, not only is this shaping up to be the worst year for U.S. stocks since 2008, but also most CFOs see a U.S. recession coming by 2020 (CBS).
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:26 AM on December 22, 2018 [15 favorites]

Senior Justice Dept. officials told Whitaker signing gun regulation might prompt successful challenge to his appointment (WaPo)

Senior Justice Department lawyers advised acting attorney general Matthew G. Whitaker not to sign a gun regulation change earlier this week, warning him that doing so could lead to a successful legal challenge to his appointment as the nation’s top law enforcement official, according to officials familiar with the discussions.
[...]
The internal debate over Whitaker’s signature, which began weeks ago, shows how concerned even top Justice Department executives are that his appointment to acting attorney general is vulnerable to a legal challenge, particularly when lawyers suing the department over various policy issues need to find only one federal judge who agrees with that position, according to officials familiar with the discussions. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to detail internal discussions.

posted by peeedro at 4:41 AM on December 22, 2018 [16 favorites]

North Carolina asked feds to open vote fraud case last year (AP)

North Carolina’s top elections official issued an urgent plea nearly two years ago for the Trump administration to file criminal charges against the man now at the center of ballot fraud allegations that have thrown a 2018 congressional race into turmoil.

N.C. Board of Elections Executive Director Kim Strach warned in a January 2017 letter first obtained by The Associated Press that those involved in illegally harvesting absentee ballots in rural Bladen County would likely do it again if they weren’t prosecuted.

Josh Lawson, the top lawyer for the elections board, said Friday that Strach’s memo was followed less than a month later with the first of several in-person meetings during which state investigators provided FBI agents and federal prosecutors with evidence accusing Leslie McCrae Dowless Jr. and others of criminal activity
[...]
At the time, there was only an acting U.S. attorney in office. Later in 2017, Trump’s appointee arrived, but took no action to prosecute the matter. Instead, he assigned his staff to focus on a different priority — prosecuting a handful of non-citizens who had allegedly voted.

posted by peeedro at 4:51 AM on December 22, 2018 [50 favorites]

The president has complained to aides about how unfair it is that he is blamed for the market’s slide and for growing unease about an economic slowdown in the months to come

Nope. Once you take credit for causing the upswing, you own everything that happens on the downside too. This is the Trump market now and for the rest of his time in office. He asked to be tied to the market's every movement, and now he is, and so is every Republican that voted for the taxscam. They explicitly promised us that more tax cuts for the rich would lead to permanent 6% growth for forever with no losses or budget deficits ever again. They should be held responsible that that hasn't happened.

Every Democrat should blame Trump and Republicans LOUDLY and at EVERY opportunity when the recession comes.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:05 AM on December 22, 2018 [72 favorites]

As predicted by zachlipton upthread, the shutdown has caused the Violence Agsinst Women Act to expire ...

... cutting off funding for programs that help victims of sexual assault, domestic abuse and stalking.

The blow to the landmark 1994 law came after multiple short-term extensions. The act was due to expire on Sept. 30 and on Dec. 7 but received a last-minute reprieve each time. Its programs are funded under the Justice Department, which is affected by the shutdown.

The lapse was a gut-punch to activists after a year in which the #MeToo movement called attention to harassment and assault of women. VAWA was passed in the wake of Anita Hill’s testimony against then-Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas over alleged sexual harassment; it expired less than three months after Christine Blasey Ford testified against then-Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh, saying he sexually assaulted her when the two were in high school. Thomas and Kavanaugh denied the allegations and now serve on the high court.

(Elise Viebeck | WaPo)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:20 AM on December 22, 2018 [30 favorites]

NBC continues to mine the Senate intelligence committee's leaked reports on Russian election interference: Russians Launched Pro-Jill Stein Social Media Blitz To Help Trump Win Election, Reports Say—Building support for Stein was one of a “roster of themes” the Moscow-sanctioned internet trolls “turned to repeatedly,” report says.

Building support for Stein was one of a “roster of themes” the Moscow-sanctioned internet trolls “turned to repeatedly” in their effort to disrupt the election, according to a research team led by the New Knowledge cybersecurity firm. The researchers also found that the campaign to bolster Stein gained in intensity in the final days of the presidential campaign and largely targeted African-American voters.[…]

An NBC News analysis found that Russians working under the direction of the Internet Research Agency, the St. Petersburg-based firm run by a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, tweeted the phrase “Jill Stein” over 1,000 times around the time of the election.[…]

The Green Party did not respond to multiple requests for comment. NBC News also left messages with two Stein spokespersons, but they went unreturned.[…]

As a frequent guest on the Russian state-owned English language broadcast and online outlets RT and Sputnik, Stein has also benefited from Moscow’s help during her presidential runs in 2012 and 2016.

An NBC News review of the archives of RT and Sputnik, which the CIA has described as part of “Russia’s state-run propaganda machine,” from early 2015 to the 2016 election shows more than 100 stories, on-air and online, friendly to Stein and the Green Party.

“Is Stein a fellow traveler or a useful idiot?” former FBI agent and Hamilton 68 co-founder Clint Watts asked rhetorically. “I don’t know, but even after the election she played into Russia disinformation by pursuing a recount so heavily and claiming election fraud. This was a post-election coup for Kremlin propagandists.”
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:28 AM on December 22, 2018 [52 favorites]

She also appeared at that same dinner with Putin as Flynn did. I legitimately do not understand why Stein is not also a target of the Special Counsel. She should be. You can't tell me she didn't know about the Russian's activities too.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:34 AM on December 22, 2018 [33 favorites]

Do we all remember Jill Stein sitting next to Flynn at the RT banquet? Fellow Traveler seems pretty clear. Prosecute her with the rest.
posted by rikschell at 5:35 AM on December 22, 2018 [11 favorites]

WSJ: Trump Doubles Down on Campaign Promises in Turbulent Week

On Wednesday evening, President Trump watched as two of his biggest congressional allies took to Fox News and the House floor to criticize him for not insisting that funds for a southern border wall be delivered in a new spending bill, according to people close to Mr. Trump.

That night, according to one of the people close to the president, Mr. Trump decided: “Let’s have this fight.”[…]

By Thursday evening, the House had voted on a new bill with funding for the wall, sending it to the Senate. Later that night, White House officials were predicting, with 90% odds, that the government would shut down at the weekend. Mr. Trump, an administration official said, was “in a good mood.”

As always, the rebarbative Trump loves to fight.

Every Democrat should blame Trump and Republicans LOUDLY and at EVERY opportunity when the recession comes.

Everyone needs to start now, even if it makes us look like Chicken Little. The Trump Shutdown has roiled markets, but that's just one early step among many that Trump has taken toward an economic downturn. The message about a recession must go out now, before the GOP has a chance to frame it.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:52 AM on December 22, 2018 [12 favorites]

“Is Stein a fellow traveler or a useful idiot?”

I once spent some time with Jill Stein in her living room. (We were filling out mailers for her 2002 run for Massachusetts governor. I was young and naive.)

I might get more mileage out of this anecdote than I ever expected if she ends up in the history books as a traitor.
posted by diogenes at 6:02 AM on December 22, 2018 [9 favorites]

Trump Slump needs to everywhere. Brand the downturn/recession like his properties.
posted by chris24 at 6:03 AM on December 22, 2018 [22 favorites]

The co-chairs of the Syrian Democratic Council, Ilham Ahmed and Riad Darar, went to France Friday to request the French government step up its military presence in Northeast Syria where the US is withdrawing.

As far I can tell from the news this morning, there hasn't been a public response from the French government yet, but immediately following Trump's announcement, the French government issued statements saying that French troops in Syria weren't going anywhere and that France was taking the continuing threat from ISIS in the region very seriously.
posted by nangar at 6:05 AM on December 22, 2018 [5 favorites]

You know, this was supposed to be infrastructure week.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:07 AM on December 22, 2018 [6 favorites]

I'm seriously amazed the intarwebs haven't been drowned by now in umpteen Downfall clips with Trump subtitles. Or, maybe reality is just too scary to make light of right now?
posted by Thorzdad at 6:07 AM on December 22, 2018 [7 favorites]

Downfall 2: Increasing Isolation
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:09 AM on December 22, 2018 [23 favorites]

Ouverture: "
“How many people go to the middle of the desert … to hold a wedding 80 miles from the nearest civilization?” he told The Guardian. “These were more than two dozen military-age males. Let’s not be naive.”"

Wait is Mattis secretly British? It's the only thing that makes sense of an implication that 80 miles is far. I mean, I've driven farther for Bannock.

a non mouse, a cow herd: "Of all the U.S. Gov shutdowns I recall, rank-and-file employees do get paid when the shutdown is over. It has to be explicitly ordered, but I can't recall a time that it has not happened. "

While true, lots of things that should/usually happen that aren't required by law (and even some things that are!) just haven't been. There is at least a chance that back pay to employees won't happen this time.
posted by Mitheral at 7:11 AM on December 22, 2018 [9 favorites]

I legitimately do not understand why Stein is not also a target of the Special Counsel.

Buzzfeed, a year ago: The Senate’s Russia Investigation Is Now Looking Into Jill Stein. She later refused to comply with their document requests, however (Intercept). (This isn't to say she hasn't been interviewed by the Special Counsel, only that we haven't heard if she has. It's possible she has but hasn't leaked it to the media.) In any case, useful idiot or fellow traveller, she acts like someone with something to hide.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:29 AM on December 22, 2018 [18 favorites]

AP: Trump Call With Turkish Leader Led to US Pullout from Syria

The WaPo has a tick-tock with much the same info but with more from people likely linked to Mattis, A tumultuous week began with a phone call between Trump and the Turkish president. This tidbit jumped out at me:

It began [in April] at a “Make America Great” rally in Ohio. “We’re knocking the hell out of ISIS,” Trump told a cheering crowd, veering unexpectedly into foreign policy in a speech that was supposed to be about infrastructure. “We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now.”

The president was still riffing onstage when the frantic calls from the White House Situation Room began pouring in to aides traveling with the president. Mattis and Chief of Staff John F. Kelly scrambled to understand what the president was talking about.
[...]
After his bombshell, Trump walked off the stage in Ohio and took a swig of Diet Coke. Smiling broadly, he “knew that people were freaking out,” said one person familiar with the incident.

One one hand, sure, the NSC is going to monitor everything, but on the other hand, it demonstrates how dysfunctional this White House is that the president's infrastructure speech is being monitored from the White House Situation Room like the raid on bin Laden.

Also, intelligence/national security leaks want us to know that ISIS isn't dead, they're just resting: Retreating ISIS army smuggled a fortune in cash and gold out of Iraq and Syria. $400 million is hidden away "partly intended, analysts say, to fund a future resurgence of the Islamic State."
posted by peeedro at 7:50 AM on December 22, 2018 [18 favorites]

Historically federal employees who worked through shutdowns (and many salaried folks who were furloughed) got retroactively made whole. That still doesn’t make it okay and is also not the case for contractors or hourly workers.

@SwiftOnSecurity had a good thread last night about federal tech / infosec workers who quit over the combination of shutdowns and their funding being used as a partisan cudgel: "These stunts are capability suicide." The lower salary that comes from public-sector work in these fields is typically offset by greater job stability and the civic mission, but when the stability goes away, you start returning the calls from recruiters.

Anyway, it's pretty clear that the Senate strategy is to make the manchild stir-crazy about not hanging out with his paying toadies in Florida. Schumer and McConnell think he'll break before they do, and then everybody will be able to fuck off for the holidays.
posted by holgate at 8:04 AM on December 22, 2018 [26 favorites]

AP: Official says US envoy for anti-Islamic State #ISIS coalition, Brett McGurk, has quit; more fallout from President Trump's Syria pullout

@nycsouthpaw: “McGurk has been a high ranking US representative in the region since the Bush admin”
posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:36 AM on December 22, 2018 [18 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump, 2:05 PM - 7 Oct 2013

My sense is that people are far angrier at the President than they are at Congress re the shutdown—an interesting turn!

posted by kirkaracha at 8:46 AM on December 22, 2018 [22 favorites]

You know, every competent person who resigns not only takes their individual competence, but also takes all of the network connections and relationships they have developed over the years that allows their individual competence to be effective at accomplishing the mission with the larger effort.

I imagine McGurk not only knew everything there was to know about the anti-ISIS coalition, but also knew every player in the region: who could be trusted, who was positioned to be useful, the best way to connect to each stakeholder’s interests, etc.

I know we’ve handled them badly in the past, but has our country ever dealt with a foreign war/conflict in quite so erratic and unstable a fashion as to unilaterally withdraw without even telling our allies?
posted by darkstar at 8:50 AM on December 22, 2018 [14 favorites]

> @SwiftOnSecurity had a good thread last night about federal tech / infosec workers who quit over the combination of shutdowns and their funding being used as a partisan cudgel: "These stunts are capability suicide." The lower salary that comes from public-sector work in these fields is typically offset by greater job stability and the civic mission, but when the stability goes away, you start returning the calls from recruiters.

On Thursday afternoon, I sent out an email to our federal research sponsors informing them of our final software release of the year, knowing full well that they were likely going to be furloughed. We had already discussed the possibility of a shutdown in a recent meeting, and let me tell you that it's awkward as hell trying to find the right words to say in that situation. Our work is funded on an annual basis, so we'll keep doing what we've been doing unless the shutdown continues for many months, but during the shutdown we won't have any government sponsors to make sure that it gets delivered to the end users, who happen to be "essential" staff that are exempt from the shutdown. (There are contractors we would normally be working with, except legally we can't task them directly, and the federal staff who would task them are gone.)

The govvies we work with are making a huge sacrifice relative to what they could get paid elsewhere. The highest paid among them top out at around 115k. That'd be a livable (albeit below-market) salary for a senior technical position here in Pittsburgh, but in DC it's simply not competitive. As Swift says, part of that differential can be accounted for by the relative stability of the work, and I am very grateful to those who stick around long enough to learn our tools and develop a good working relationship with us. But at this point, why would anyone stay?

The GOP loves contractors, because it's federal dollars that go to private companies. They're not as concerned with the size of the budgets as they are with the size of the payrolls. There is definitely work that the federal staff isn't skilled enough to do, but there is no doubt in my mind that if we were paying the federal workers close to what they're worth and not constantly threatening their livelihood with shutdowns, they'd be able to do more of that work themselves, freeing people like me up to work on more difficult problems.

And all of this for "artistically designed steel slats".
posted by tonycpsu at 8:55 AM on December 22, 2018 [48 favorites]

WaPo on the McGurk resignation:

U.S. envoy to coalition fighting ISIS resigns in protest of Trump’s Syria decision
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:00 AM on December 22, 2018 [1 favorite]

I legitimately do not understand why Stein is not also a target of the Special Counsel.

How do you know that she isn't? The only things we really know about Mueller's investigation come in the form leaks by his targets and court filings. The leaks all come from the various targets of the investigation and their defense teams to get ahead of things when something damaging is going to become public (a guilty plea, some filing made public, etc.) and that's just because these are still public figures who think they can win in the court of public opinion.

But Stein doesn't have an administration to protect, she doesn't have power she's trying to hold onto. If she is a target of the investigation, she's just trying to stay out of jail. If we assume that she has competent lawyers I would guess (and hopefully those more familiar with criminal law can correct or confirm this) that they'd advise her to stay quiet and keep her head down. A lack of evidence that she is a target of the investigation doesn't necessarily mean that she's in the clear.

Mueller knows at least as much as we know AND he's been following the money. If some of that money goes through Jill Stein I would bet that she's a target. Time will tell.
posted by VTX at 9:06 AM on December 22, 2018 [22 favorites]

NPR interviewed some Republican congressman yesterday who was angry that funding for either a wall or fence, he didn't care about semantics, had been made into a politically divisive issue, when just a few years ago money for fencing was supported by both parties non-controversially. NPR, as usual, had nothing to say in response. It made me livid, because what's the difference between a wall and a fence? Probably tens of billions of dollars at a time when Flint still has lead tainted water.

The congressman went on to say that old fencing lets in maybe 10 illegals a month while new fencing lets in zero, again something I really don't care about spending billions on. He had the nerve to say this was obviously a huge problem. Of course, the correct response to this would have been to ask why ten people sneaking into the country who will in all likelihood contribute to the economy, obey the law, and pay taxes is more important than, say, food programs for the poor, but that would be calling b.s. on the whole thing wouldn't it?
posted by xammerboy at 9:19 AM on December 22, 2018 [50 favorites]

NPR interviewed some Republican congressman yesterday who was angry that funding for either a wall or fence, he didn't care about semantics, had been made into a politically divisive issue

You know what else has been recently made politically divisive: journalism, federal law enforcement, condemning Nazis and white supremacy, the independent judiciary, football, the Federal Reserve, a speech to the Boy Scouts, John McCain's funeral, the Kennedy Center Honors, sexual abusers on the supreme court, pedophiles in the senate, Harley Davidson, free trade, and US immigration policies.

What do all these things have in common...?
posted by peeedro at 9:37 AM on December 22, 2018 [50 favorites]

My sense is that people are far angrier at the President than they are at Congress re the shutdown—an interesting turn!

We could go through Trump's Twitter timeline all day to find past examples of him criticizing the very problems he's now causing in the White House. In 2013, for example, he harped on Obama and the shutdown—"FACT – the reason why Americans have to worry about a government shutdown is because Obama refuses to pass a budget."

He was also interviewed by Fox's Greta van Susteren: “Well, very simply, you have to get everybody in a room. You have to be a leader. The president has to lead. He’s got to get [the Speaker of the House] and everybody else in a room, and they have to make a deal. You have to be nice, and be angry, and be wild, and cajole, and do all sorts of things. But you have to get a deal.”

Trump ghostwriter-biography Tony Schwartz keeps repeating the obvious explanation: "It's critical to understand the role of projection for Trump when he feels under siege. What he says critically about others is a direct projection of what he's unconsciously feeling about himself. Read every statement he makes and tweet he writes with this in mind."

You'd think that this lengthy record of nonsense would be transparent, yet his supporters and promoters will apparently allow him to say anything as long as he signs off on their agendas or cuts them in on the grift.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:38 AM on December 22, 2018 [14 favorites]

Trump, Unchecked: With Mattis gone, the president is now free to indulge his most visceral instincts. (Thomas Wright, The Atlantic)

The turning point of the Trump administration came on July 17, 2017. For the first six months of his presidency, Trump largely deferred to the so-called axis of adults of Tillerson, McMaster, and Mattis. When he diverged from their advice—when, for example, he refused to endorse Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty while speaking at nato headquarters—he soon backtracked under pressure. But on July 17 he had had enough. He was sitting through yet another interagency meeting, this time on the Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action. Not only did all of his advisers recommend staying in the deal—the three options in front of him required it. He agreed to effectively extend the deal one more time but demanded that the next time, he be given an option to withdraw.

After that meeting, Trump began to push back. He started giving orders unilaterally—to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to meet with Vladimir Putin, to meet with Kim Jong Un, and even to hold a military parade. But as long as the axis of adults remained in place, he was constrained. So he began to force them out. If there is a common theme behind the reshuffle, it is that Trump replaces independent thinkers with sycophantic loyalists or those too weak to stand up to him. If past practice is any guide, Trump will double down on loyalists when he replaces Mattis. Men such as John Bolton and Mike Pompeo do not agree with Trump on many issues, but they value their loyalty to him personally above their own views and they will never try to thwart his will. […]

America’s allies had hoped to ride out the next two years. Senior officials from multiple European and Asian allies told me that they had concluded by mid-2018 that they could engage with the administration but that things went off the rails whenever the president was directly engaged, which was usually on a foreign trip. They decided to deliberately reduce the opportunities for him to be involved. Thus, the 70th anniversary of the nato summit would not be marked by a leaders’ summit, but would instead occur at the foreign-ministers level (it will be hosted by Pompeo in Washington, D.C.). The agendas for G20 and G7 summits are being pared back, frequently with the support of officials in Washington. But those plans count on an administration that checks Trump, not one that empowers him. It is very possible that America’s adversaries will try to take advantage of the disarray. If Putin or Xi makes a major move, such as trying to test America’s alliances, it will be soon.

T̸̲͈͚̠͔͎͜h̷̢̢̙͖̱͔̬̕i͏͍̻͈̺̪̹̩͕͎̥̖̥͙̮͇͔͇̕ş̲͈̝̬͈͢ ̶̵̖͙̹͍̬̜̰̼͓͕͔͉̻͉í̵̡̖̟̻͈͚̭͕̣̳̞͓̝̮s̨̼̗͚̗̙͉̰̠̯͎̜͉̹͕̫̭̬͜ ̡̛̞̻͙̹̻̥̰ͅf̨̭̣̱͖̦̩̠̣̘͖̘͕͓̟̥̺ͅi̴̶͓̠͔̯̼̙̘n͍̘͍̥̘̳̱͍͕̼͜͞e҉̶̻̞̗̤̖̞̥̭͉̪̼͍͕̭̮̫.̛̝̮͚͕̪̤͎̥̹͔͍̼́̀

.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:50 AM on December 22, 2018 [50 favorites]

I actually heard a "But he's only keeping his election promise" Trumpist, when called on the "And he said he'd make Mexico pay for it" part, say "Nobody believed that bit". So, nah, it doesn't matter what he says.
posted by Devonian at 9:52 AM on December 22, 2018 [39 favorites]

He promised everything to everyone because he's a con man.

That's why things that can't easily be explained as a con pitch to the nation (Russia) are assumed to be tied into what's necessary to sustain the con. But it also draws attention to the people who remain invested in him. Even in a scenario where elected Republicans decide to cut their losses, @JoeMaga4325-flag-emoji-eagle-avi is not going away.
posted by holgate at 10:18 AM on December 22, 2018 [22 favorites]

The GOP loves contractors, because it's federal dollars that go to private companies. They're not as concerned with the size of the budgets as they are with the size of the payrolls. There is definitely work that the federal staff isn't skilled enough to do, but there is no doubt in my mind that if we were paying the federal workers close to what they're worth and not constantly threatening their livelihood with shutdowns, they'd be able to do more of that work themselves, freeing people like me up to work on more difficult problems.

Mother Jones: Wall Street Suffered Its Worst December Since the Great Depression

The Nasdaq is already in a bear market (NYT)

The Nasdaq is not the only group of stocks in such distress. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks shares of smaller companies, entered a bear market earlier this week. Seven of the S&P 500’s 11 industrial sectors are also at the level, led by energy stocks, which are down 28 percent from their highs earlier this year. That’s in large part because oil has been in a bear market since November

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:34 AM on December 22, 2018 [6 favorites]

Oh, look. More theater from the president. He tweets a picture of "Some of the many Bills that I am signing in the Oval Office right now."

This morning, he tweeted, "I am in the White House, working hard", and digging deeper into denial, he declared, "News reports concerning the Shutdown and Syria are mostly FAKE."

CBS's Kathryn Watson observes: "Of course the president can work from anywhere, but there is no Marine outside the Oval as of this tweet so Trump isn’t there."

Trump also announced he'd conduct a working lunch about border security with Pence, Mulvaney, Jared*, Senators Mike Lee, Lindsey Graham, and Richard Shelby, and Representatives Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Andy Biggs.

CNN Jim Acosta points out: "Mulvaney not Kelly listed as COS (though Acting) in this list of participants provided by WH for Trump’s shutdown meeting. (Via WH pool) Kelly was scheduled to depart by end of year."

And the NYT's Katie Rogers checks in on the shutdown negotiations:

Saturday:

McConnell, didn't go to WH: "Glad productive discussions are continuing between our Democratic colleagues and the White House."

Schumer, didn't go to WH: Trump "must abandon the wall, plain and simple.”

WH, from WH: "$5 billion in border security."

Hoo boy.

* Now Jared's portfolio includes border security? Did room open up after he achieved peace in the Middle East or something?
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:53 AM on December 22, 2018 [16 favorites]

The NYT splits the difference on "increasingly isolated" for the headline to Maggie Haberman's insider article: For Trump, ‘a War Every Day,’ Waged Increasingly Alone—At the midpoint of his term, the president has grown more sure of his own judgment and more isolated from anyone else’s than at any point since he took office.

For two years, Mr. Trump has waged war against his own government, convinced that people around him are fools. Angry that they resist his wishes, uninterested in the details of their briefings, he becomes especially agitated when they tell him he does not have the power to do what he wants, which makes him suspicious that they are secretly undermining him.[…]

At the midpoint of his term, Mr. Trump has grown more sure of his own judgment and more cut off from anyone else’s than at any point since taking office. He spends ever more time in front of a television, often retreating to his residence out of concern that he is being watched too closely. As he sheds advisers at a head-spinning rate, he reaches out to old associates, complaining that few of the people around him were there at the beginning.

Mr. Trump is said by advisers to be consumed by the multiplying investigations that have taken down his personal lawyer, campaign chairman, national security adviser and family foundation. He rails against enemies, who often were once friends, nursing a deep sense of betrayal and grievance as they turn on him.

“Can you believe this?” he has said as he scanned the torrent of headlines. “I’m doing great, but it’s a war every day.”

“Why is it like this?” he has asked aides, with no acknowledgment that he might have played a role. The aides, many of whom believe he has been treated unfairly by the news media, have replied that journalists are angry that he won and proved them wrong. He nods in agreement at such explanations.

It's all as juicy as one would expect from the former tabloid reporter, backed up by "interviews with about 30 current and former administration officials, personal friends, political allies, lawmakers"—almost of whom stayed on background (for obvious reasons).

And he can be hard on his staff. He regularly curses at them, some say. Even his humor can be abrasive. When Larry Kudlow, his economics adviser, returned after a heart attack this year, the president ribbed him in front of aides. “Larry, you’re here six weeks and you had a heart attack?” Others laughed uncomfortably.

More recently, the president has told associates he feels “totally and completely abandoned,” as one put it, complaining that no one is on his side and that many around him have ulterior motives. That extends even to his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who was credited for helping push through the criminal justice bill, praise that Mr. Trump took note of.

Longtime associates said Mr. Trump’s relationship with his children has grown more removed and that he feels he does not have a friend in the White House. He disagrees with Mr. Kushner and Ivanka Trump much of the time, but cannot bring himself to tell them no, leaving that instead to Mr. Kelly, according to former aides. That made Mr. Kelly the heavy, they said, and therefore the target of their ire until he was finally forced out.

Mr. Trump has spent far less time lately with older friends. The sense of isolation was on display at this month’s holiday parties when he appeared for a few minutes, took a few perfunctory photographs with preselected guests and then disappeared back upstairs rather than mingle. He is spending this preholiday shutdown weekend alone since Melania and Barron Trump went ahead to Florida without him.[…]

Still, for all the reports of a fuming president alarmed at possible impeachment, Mr. Trump rarely expresses such specific anxiety out loud, associates said. Instead he expresses frustration, anger, mania — all of which aides read like tea leaves to discern what lies beneath.[…]

More recently, Mr. Trump has taken to spending time reminiscing about the happier days of his candidacy and his 2016 victory. He spent the fall showing different groups of visitors what he calls his love letters from North Korea’s iron-fisted dictator, Kim Jong-un, expressing admiration for Mr. Trump. And he still takes joy in aspects of the job, primarily those that demonstrate power. “The roads closed for me!” he declared to friends earlier this year after a motorcade ride.

But those highs have been hard to recapture. The days are filled with conflict, much of it of his own making. More advisers are heading for the door. The divisions are widening, not closing. If it is a “war every day,” there are no signs of peace.

Haberman shares one more colorful detail on Twitter: "Trump is watching more TV, but the TV is also almost always on even during meetings in Oval Office dining room, where he keeps one ear attuned to what’s happening and stops discussion if he hears his name mentioned." And you can be sure Trump will tweet something about this article before the weekend's over.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:15 PM on December 22, 2018 [30 favorites]

@kathrynw5: It's official: This shutdown won't be resolved until after Christmas. The Senate is set to adjourn today with no deal. Next formal meeting at 4 p.m. Thursday, McConnell announces, per @edokeefe

And Thursday might just be a pro-forma session where nothing happens.

Really nice to see how much our elected officials care about their jobs.
posted by zachlipton at 12:21 PM on December 22, 2018 [28 favorites]

What the news search sections of search engines (Bing and Google) have begun doing is peppering any keyword search you might care to make, completely unrelated to North America, Trump and related stuff, with Trump's name. Mobile phone sales figures in Africa? Trump. Impact of demonetization in India? Trump. Solar power in rural Indonesia? Trump. Now that algorithms must bow to the name gods, the remaining shreds of integrity of a search result are one with the wind. Trump.

May his name live forever. Trump.
posted by infini at 12:53 PM on December 22, 2018 [3 favorites]

WaPo Editorial advocating impeachment:
Congress is the Article 1 power for a reason. The Constitution grants it awesome powers over war and peace, appointments, budgeting, trade and, in extreme circumstances, impeachment. By practice it has ceded much of its authority in recent years, and its muscles have gone flabby. Given the dangers ahead, the country’s only hope may be for Congress, in a responsible but determined way, to begin exercising those
posted by stonepharisee at 1:14 PM on December 22, 2018 [41 favorites]

This is painfully true: the biggest barrier to getting skilled federal staff is being allowed to hire at all, followed closely by a pay scale which is a couple decades behind. The federal workforce has been getting older because agencies haven’t been allowed to hire sufficient new staff, which means that a lot of knowledge is lost as boomers retire without overlapping with their replacements (assuming that’s allowed).

This is true in my own department, our director who more or less created the program and supporting components from the ground up over the last decade and has been with the agency for 40 some years is retiring, and we weren't allowed to hire a replacement until he's officially out of his current position. So he's spent the last two months writing down everything that wasn't already written down for whoever is eventually promoted, but we don't know who that is, and he won't have any opportunity to help that person get into the role.

Also, we're losing a lot of people to the private sector now, although that's cyclical especially with the glut of attorneys still on the market. We can always fill openings, and can still regularly hire from top 10 law schools, because many people's alternative just out of law school is a 40k nonprofit position or similar, but we have a hard time keeping the best people beyond a couple years. We have zero ability to match a better offer, and even some other agencies within the government have higher attorney pay scales.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:33 PM on December 22, 2018 [12 favorites]

A few comments deleted -- sorry, let's do this without the not-a-good-time-given-the-context riffing.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 3:01 PM on December 22, 2018 [6 favorites]

Yamiche Alcindor (PBS): Senior administration just wrapped a call about the shutdown where he said these exact words while demanding Dems give President Trump $5 billion: “Mexico will pay for the wall.”
posted by neroli at 3:06 PM on December 22, 2018 [12 favorites]

@christinawilkie: NEW: Treasury Sec @stevenmnuchin1 claims Trump said that he “totally disagrees” w Fed policy but “I never suggested firing Chairman Jay Powell, nor do I believe I have the right to do so.” Very odd to have Mnuchin broadcast Trump’s (false) denial. Clearly meant to calm markets.

I'll take "things Trump never said for $100, Alex." There's zero chance he ever acknowledged there was something he didn't have the right to do.
posted by zachlipton at 3:40 PM on December 22, 2018 [41 favorites]

Although I have been off Facebook for almost two weeks since my sudden trip to FL to help my 86-yr old dad into assisted living, I have kept up with the headlines and more recently, this thread. And I have the following question(s),
1. Wow. So. Yeah. Supposedly the last "reasonable" voice has left the room (Mattis), but does anyone really believes he listens to or understands whatever non-drooling idiots are left there or do most of us understand the more reasonable explanation, that Trump never actually makes any decision about anything (lacking a basic grade-school education, seemingly) but is instead told what to do by the last of the chaotic evil wraiths still standing (Stephen Miller types) or his papa bear, Vlad?
1a. On a related note - and sorry if this is obvious but wtf is obvious now?! - was no one else mildly chilled in surreal fashion by Putin's, Good job, Donald, when the toddler president announced our withdrawal from Syria? (I try to read this whole thread but it is too big some days.)
posted by Glinn at 3:45 PM on December 22, 2018 [4 favorites]

A lot of people here feared Schumer caving; let's recognize that he did not.

Trump officials are demanding Democrats "come to the table" but then organized a lunch today and literally did not invite any Democrats or even non-insane Republicans to their literal table. It was Trump, Kushner, Mulvaney; senators Mike Lee, Lindsay Graham & Richard Shelby; and Reps. Mark Meadows, Andy Biggs, Jim Jordan (all "Freedom Caucus" members) plus conspiracy-psycho Matt Gaetz.

Schumer meanwhile said “If you want to open the government, you must abandon the wall.” I like it.
posted by msalt at 3:54 PM on December 22, 2018 [57 favorites]

Schumer meanwhile said “If you want to open the government, you must abandon the wall.” I like it.

Right on Chuck with having a spine, but I'll quibble on his message because this phrasing sounds like Democrats will keep the government closed until Trump abandons the wall.

Maybe something like this instead?
"We're not giving you the wall. You shutdown the gov and it's in your power to reopen it at any time."
posted by duoshao at 4:17 PM on December 22, 2018 [24 favorites]

A part of me really, really wishes Pelosi and Schumer would post the "You get NOTHING! You LOSE! GOOD DAY, SIR!" gif of Gene Wilder in C&tCF. Another part of me... heck, that part of me wishes they would do it too.

I suppose it's good they don't. But you know.
posted by Justinian at 4:32 PM on December 22, 2018 [45 favorites]

Jake Sherman, Politico: PELOSI writes her colleagues about the shutdown.

Until President Trump can publicly commit to a bipartisan resolution, there will be no agreement before January when the new House Democratic Majority will swiftly pass legislation to re-open government. Please be assured you will be made aware of any developments to re-open government in the days ahead.

Best wishes to you and your loved ones for a Happy Holiday.

Nancy

posted by murphy slaw at 4:34 PM on December 22, 2018 [37 favorites]

That's pretty close to the Gene Wilder .gif.

I don't see how McConnell sustains this with a Democratic House in 10 days. If they come in and immediately pass a clean CR, he's going to have to let it have a vote and finally dare Trump to veto it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:38 PM on December 22, 2018 [2 favorites]

So, since GOFundME is the newfound vehicle for political gestures, how hard would it be to crowdfund a furlough fund for federal workers?
posted by ocschwar at 4:41 PM on December 22, 2018 [2 favorites]

so the senate passed a bill to guarantee pay for federal employees affected by the shutdown, but as far as i've heard the house was too busy talking about natural cheese to hold a vote on it, and the entire congress has fucked off until thursday so…

thanks for your consideration, senators, i guess?
posted by murphy slaw at 4:55 PM on December 22, 2018 [9 favorites]

If a bill is not passed by both houses by the end of this year, they have to start all over again in January passing in both houses. This means the Senate bill without the wall that passed will have to pass the Senate again in January.

Bills can carry over to the next even year but not the next odd year. For example the ACA passed in the Senate in 2009 and then in the House in 2010. The bill carried over.

You can think of the new Congress after an election as a clean slate. Bills do not carry over. In the intervening year without an election, bills do carry over, for example from 2017 to 2018, but not from 2018 to 2019.
posted by JackFlash at 4:59 PM on December 22, 2018 [14 favorites]

how hard would it be to crowdfund a furlough fund for federal workers?

You'd need several million per day.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:03 PM on December 22, 2018 [7 favorites]

Also remember that the continuing resolution now under debate was only for funding through February 8 to get them through the holidays and into the new congress. With that out of the way, I'm guessing that if nothing happens until January they will be shooting for something much more long term.
posted by JackFlash at 5:09 PM on December 22, 2018 [1 favorite]

All I want for Christmas is a restored belief that the President of the United States would not launch nuclear weapons just because Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh screamed he'd be a pussy not to.
posted by sacre_bleu at 5:16 PM on December 22, 2018 [66 favorites]

Trump was right to pull out of Syria and Afghanistan. This is what he should do next. (Ro Khanna, WaPo)

President Trump is receiving an onslaught of criticism for his decision to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan. Congressional Democrats should not pile on without offering an alternative vision. We should applaud the president’s desire to put an end to these interventions, but should challenge him to assemble a team that does so with better planning and diplomacy. We should articulate a foreign policy doctrine of responsible withdrawal that prioritizes restraint and human rights.

Let’s start with a fact that the mainstream media has glossed over when criticizing Trump’s Syria decision: His decision is in compliance with U.S. and international law. The presence of U.S. troops in the Syrian civil war was never authorized by Congress. We are also violating international law by invading Syria without the approval of the United Nations. Before any administration official can advocate keeping troops in Syria to fight the Islamic State, Congress needs to offer authorization.

Trump also deserves credit for standing up to the war hawks within his own administration who started inventing rationales for remaining in the country: countering Iran and seeing an end to the Assad regime. That is the definition of mission creep. While Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a brutal dictator and should be tried at the Hague for international war crimes, the United States should not militarily overthrow him.

There is no doubt Trump should have articulated a more prudent withdrawal strategy. He could have consulted beforehand with our allies and regional partners. One alternative to an immediate withdrawal in Syria is announcing a full withdrawal over the next few months. That would give us time to prepare local forces and to deploy intelligence platforms and networks that address potential terrorist threats.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 5:34 PM on December 22, 2018 [2 favorites]

The presence of U.S. troops in the Syrian civil war was never authorized by Congress.

Then Congress needs to rescind the extremely broad AUMF passed after 9/11. And in the future any AUMF, even narrower ones, should have sunset clauses which require Congress to affirmatively reauthorize the Act rather than passively accept it.

Congress has willfully abdicated its responsibility because they don't want to have to take tough votes. It's cowardly.
posted by Justinian at 5:42 PM on December 22, 2018 [62 favorites]

Trump was right to pull out of Syria and Afghanistan. This is what he should do next. (Ro Khanna, WaPo)

Generally agree with the points made, but the framing should be "Trump did a thing that should have been done, of course it was by impulsive and dangerously naive accident, but Democrats have the responsibility (and the opening) to actually have a grownup conversation about the US and our role in the world."
posted by tivalasvegas at 5:43 PM on December 22, 2018 [4 favorites]

Trump never actually makes any decision about anything (lacking a basic grade-school education, seemingly) but is instead told what to do by the last of the chaotic evil wraiths still standing (Stephen Miller types) or his papa bear, Vlad?

It's worse than you think. He's taking directions from Ann Coulter over twitter.
posted by JackFlash at 5:47 PM on December 22, 2018 [9 favorites]

Trump was right to pull out of Syria and Afghanistan.

This pisses me off. The point isn't whether or not you agree with pulling out of Syria. The point is that the president should have an argument for doing so, a plan for doing so, involving a team of experts, and not just make this decision via his gut and twitter. One of the horrifying results of this lack of planning is that the Kurds, since we are leaving them high and dry with no warning, are threatening to release their thousands of ISIS prisoners. This was completely avoidable. Even if you agree with Trump's goals , his methods are terrifyingly dangerous.
posted by xammerboy at 5:52 PM on December 22, 2018 [101 favorites]

He's made a habit of using non-government and non-appointed people. Who's at the other end of the phone? Kellyanne, Bannon, Ike Perlmutter? Hannity supplementing the direct video feed with with individual coaching?

Well, he did listen to the Freedom Caucus when they met with him at the last minute and now we have him demanding his wall and we’re in shutdow. So, sometimes he listens to governmental sorts.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:56 PM on December 22, 2018 [1 favorite]

The point isn't whether or not you agree with pulling out of Syria. The point is that the president should have an argument for doing so, a plan for doing so, involving a team of experts, and not just make this decision via his gut and twitter.

Yeah, I agree. I've said we should get the fork out of Afghanistan a lot here on Metafilter. Been saying it for years. Because we should.

I don't currently have a particularly good plan of action or military and diplomatic policy for achieving that. Which is ok because I'm not the forking President. If I were the President, I would develop such a plan and carefully implement it in conjunction with our allies. Trump skips over all of that which is non-optimal from a not screwing up the world standpoint.
posted by Justinian at 5:59 PM on December 22, 2018 [21 favorites]

Yesterday, Trump signed a bill renaming the post office I usually buy stamps at the "Captain Humayun Khan Post Office". Humayun Khan was a US soldier from Charlottesville, VA who died in Iraq. His father, Khizr Khan, was the guy who delivered the "Have you ever read the constitution of the United States? I'll gladly lend you my copy" speech at the 2016 Democratic Convention.

I'm very sure Trump had no idea who Humayun Khan was, and didn't read or even glance at any of the bills he was signing.
posted by nangar at 6:05 PM on December 22, 2018 [140 favorites]

...in the future any AUMF, even narrower ones, should have sunset clauses which require Congress to affirmatively reauthorize the Act rather than passively accept it.

How about no bullshit AUMF's and we only do declarations of war against countries? And if a non-state actor does something like the 9/11 attacks we treat it like a crime like we should've done in first place.

It should be hard for us to commit to using military force and we should only do it if we absolutely need to, which would be almost never. As signatories to the UN Treaty we can only legally use military force in direct self defense or with the approval of the Security Council.

“It's Christmas, Theo. It's the time of miracles.”
posted by kirkaracha at 6:16 PM on December 22, 2018 [24 favorites]

At the midpoint of his term, Mr. Trump has grown more sure of his own judgment and more cut off from anyone else’s than at any point since taking office.

The living personification of Dunning-Kruger.

He spends ever more time in front of a television, often retreating to his residence out of concern that he is being watched too closely. As he sheds advisers at a head-spinning rate, he reaches out to old associates, complaining that few of the people around him were there at the beginning.

Mr. Trump is said by advisers to be consumed by the multiplying investigations that have taken down his personal lawyer, campaign chairman, national security adviser and family foundation. He rails against enemies, who often were once friends, nursing a deep sense of betrayal and grievance as they turn on him.

“Can you believe this?” he has said as he scanned the torrent of headlines. “I’m doing great, but it’s a war every day.”

“Why is it like this?” he has asked aides, with no acknowledgment that he might have played a role.

A paranoid narcissistic sociopath with nukes. This is going to end well, for sure. The 25th Amendment needs to be reworked to account for the fact that the VP and Cabinet can be too cowed from implementing it when it's so obviously necessary.
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:48 PM on December 22, 2018 [20 favorites]

One of the horrifying results of this lack of planning is that the Kurds, since we are leaving them high and dry with no warning

As a point of reference, 4 US soldiers have lost their lives in Syria during the 3 years of conflict, while an estimated 10,000 Kurdish fighters have died in battles. That's because the Obama administration's policy was a low footprint, low cost approach to prop up our partners as they fight ISIS. Apparently twelve days ago we assured the Kurds we were in for the long haul. Now what happens to them? We're throwing them to the wolves, either ISIS or Turkey.
posted by bluecore at 6:50 PM on December 22, 2018 [26 favorites]

This wall debate is what happens when the only voices you hear agree with you (Phillip Bump, WaPo)

Trump often seems to believe that his efforts have more support than they do — even beyond his frequent claims that polling understates his support. His base is his primary focus, and at times he seems baffled that it shouldn’t be.
...
One of the underrecognized aspects of Trump’s presidency is how extensive his isolation is. He has held a slew of campaign rallies because he gets to interact with people who love him. His time off is at Trump Organization properties where people literally pay for the privilege of getting access. His administration, as The Washington Post’s Aaron Blake notes, is increasingly made up of people who will tell him what he wants to hear, particularly once Defense Secretary Jim Mattis heads for the exit.

Surrounding oneself with people who tell him what he wants to hear is pretty much the starting point for groupthink.

The net effect of this is that Trump’s world is whipped into a frenzy over the necessity of the wall, and he hears little argument to the contrary. That frenzy, to some extent, derives from his supporters in the media and the White House believing that his success is entirely dependent on keeping his base close and believing that the wall is essential to accomplish that goal.

posted by ZeusHumms at 6:55 PM on December 22, 2018 [6 favorites]

The 25th Amendment needs to be reworked to account for the fact that the VP and Cabinet can be too cowed from implementing it when it's so obviously necessary.

I mean, I don't understand how that would work. Right now we have mechanisms by which the Legislative branch can remove the President. We have methods by which the Executive branch (VP+Cabinet) can at least temporarily remove the President. How could you rework the 25th given half the Legislature and the entire Executive is either cowed or complicit? Any such attempt would either be useless in the current situation or far too easy to abuse in the future, since it would have to involve a President being removed by roughly half the Congress.
posted by Justinian at 6:55 PM on December 22, 2018 [3 favorites]

From The Twitter:
NY should rename 5th Ave "Barack Obama Ave" so that Trump Tower will have to use that as its address forever
posted by growabrain at 6:57 PM on December 22, 2018 [118 favorites]

From March 7th

scalefree: ProPublica announces their new project, Trump Town: Tracking White House Staffers, Cabinet Members and Political Appointees Across the Government.

As of Dec 21, now containing records for 2,816 appointees, compiled from what appears to be continuing FOIA requests.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:05 PM on December 22, 2018 [15 favorites]

[Satire] Canadian GoFundMe Raises $6B In Two Hours To Pay For Privacy Hedge Along Entire US Border (Paul Duncan, Out And Abouter)

In an interesting side-bar, one that some have taken to indicate that the stresses of modern populism have already migrated north, a number of spin-off campaigns have begun, calling for privacy hedges between many of Canada’s own provinces.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:07 PM on December 22, 2018 [5 favorites]

The Guy Who Taught Trump to Tweet Owes Us All a Goddamn Apology (Jay Willis, GQ)

Mostly the same as other reaction pieces to the Politico article, but I thought the title was noteworthy.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:13 PM on December 22, 2018 [7 favorites]

[Joke]
Trump wanted to repaint the White House, and received three quotes:

Chinese contractor: 3 million
German Contractor: 7 million
Russian Contractor: 10 million

So Trump asked the Chinese contractor: "Why did you bid 3 million"? The Chinese contractor said: "One million for paint, one million for labor, and one million is profit."

He then asked the German contractor why he was asking 7 million. The German replied: "3 million for high quality paint, 2 million for the specialized workforce, and 2 million is profit."

He then asked the Russian why he was asking 10 million. The Russian responded: "Donald Donald my friend, it's 4 million for you, 3 million for me, and with the 3 million left we hire the Chinese contractor!"

Trump is now taking bids for painting his wall.
posted by growabrain at 7:13 PM on December 22, 2018 [73 favorites]

The Guy Who Taught Trump to Tweet Owes Us All a Goddamn Apology

The thing that struck me from the original article was how much it looked like a success from the perspective of teaching someone ADL (Activities of Daily Living). Usually it's reteaching someone who has suffered a physical or cognitive disability skills they needed to reaquire, but sometimes it's something new. It's a little disconcerting that they did an admirable job teaching this monster how to tweet.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:35 PM on December 22, 2018 [9 favorites]

the framing should be "Trump did a thing that should have been done, of course it was by impulsive and dangerously naive accident, but Democrats have the responsibility (and the opening) to actually have a grownup conversation about the US and our role in the world."

If your car is in the wrong lane on a two lane highway, something needs to be done to correct the situation, but it doesn't make running someone beside you in the correct lane off the road something that should be done.
posted by Candleman at 7:37 PM on December 22, 2018 [2 favorites]

Trump didn’t really make any sort of decision. Erdogan told him over the phone that our mission was over. Trump took that as a command and decided to pull our troops out.
posted by gucci mane at 7:50 PM on December 22, 2018 [10 favorites]

From Dailykos:
Mattis didn't simply resign, he pulled every fire alarm at the Pentagon on the way out
posted by growabrain at 8:06 PM on December 22, 2018 [11 favorites]

Roll Call: House Ethics Expands Scope of Probe Into David Schweikert [R - AZ-06]
posted by Chrysostom at 8:07 PM on December 22, 2018 [5 favorites]

From Dailykos:
Mattis didn't simply resign, he pulled every fire alarm at the Pentagon on the way out

tl;dr: "pulled every fire alarm" = "sent the letter we all read on twitter to military officials"
posted by runcibleshaw at 8:15 PM on December 22, 2018 [37 favorites]

Coming in to post this 2-hour-old tweet from Rep. Adam Schiff: In our long history, an administration has always managed to keep the government open when it controlled both houses of Congress, until now. The corruption problems within this administration are bad enough; but its incompetence is now just as debilitating.

Then got distracted by a re-post on his account.

During the oversight hearing on Friday, Secretary Nielsen testified that the DHS doesn't know how many people have died while in its custody.

C-Span, 2:11:08 mark, as Rep. David Cicilline, D-Rhode Island, seeking to clarify earlier testimony, grows indignant.

Cicilline: Madame Secretary, did I understand you correctly to say, that as you sit here today, you do not know how many human beings have died while in the custody of the department that you lead, and you -- in preparation for today's hearing, you did not ascertain that number? But you don't know it, today?

Nielsen: I don't have an exact figure for you.

Cicilline: Do you have a rough idea?

Nielsen:
Nielsen:
Nielsen: Sir, I can tell you that --

Cicilline: We're talking about people who have died in your custody! And you don't have the number?

Nielsen: I will get back to you with the number.
posted by Iris Gambol at 8:15 PM on December 22, 2018 [98 favorites]

If your car is in the wrong lane on a two lane highway, something needs to be done to correct the situation, but it doesn't make running someone beside you in the correct lane off the road something that should be done.

I saw someone, and I can't find it again to attribute this, make the analogy to a truck that's rammed itself into the side of a house. The truck's not supposed to be there, but the house is going to collapse if you just slam it into reverse and leave. Even if you're upset about the continued presence of the truck, you actually have to talk to some experts who know things about how to keep houses from falling down to figure out what to do about it.

And we know that didn't happen, because he petulantly tweeted this evening: "Brett McGurk, who I do not know." If you withdraw from Syria without ever once in two years speaking to the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, you're not doing your job. Talk to the guy and decide he's wrong, fine that's a valid course of action, but admitting you've never met him is just telling on yourself.
posted by zachlipton at 8:22 PM on December 22, 2018 [70 favorites]

Mattis didn't simply resign, he pulled every fire alarm at the Pentagon on the way out

tl;dr: "pulled every fire alarm" = "sent the letter we all read on twitter to military officials"

And waltzed merrily into a multimillion dollar consulting gig.

Mattis could speak out. Dina Powell could speak out. Gary Cohn. McMaster. Tillerson. McGahn. Any of the "adults" could just fucking tell us what they saw. That's all. That's all they would have to do to be American Heroes.

None have. None will. Because they all agree with Trump and hate Democrats more than they care about democracy, and want to get paid for doing it.

Even Mattis. He's never been any sort of hero, no matter how much the military deified him as the rest of their leaders laid down for Trump too, he's just the last guy left holding the bag of dogshit before lighting the match.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:25 PM on December 22, 2018 [65 favorites]

By the way, I like the tags of this thread:
uspolitics
potus45
everythingishappeningatonce
endlessscreaming
batshitsane
notimetowritetagsortherellbemorenews
makeitstopplease
posted by growabrain at 8:26 PM on December 22, 2018 [29 favorites]

That's all they would have to do to be American Heroes.

This is what blows my mind. The first high-profile Republican who's willing to openly defy him will literally make history. As in, they will be named in their grandchildren's textbooks for playing a pivotal role in the great unwinding of this shitshow.

The hundredth Republican to do so will not be remembered as well. And yet nobody is willing to step up. (Kompromat?)
posted by Piso Mojado at 8:35 PM on December 22, 2018 [33 favorites]

How Russian Money Helped Save Trump’s Business (Michael Hirsch, Foreign Policy)

In the fall of 1992, after he cut a deal with U.S. banks to work off nearly a billion dollars in personal debt, Donald Trump put on a big gala for himself in Atlantic City to announce his comeback. Party guests were given sticks with a picture of Trump’s face glued to them so they could be photographed posing as the famous real-estate mogul. As the theme music from the movie Rocky filled the room, an emcee shouted, “Let’s hear it for the king!” and Trump, wearing red boxing gloves and a robe, burst through a paper screen. One of his casino executives announced that his boss had returned as a “winner,” according to Trump biographer Michael D’Antonio.

But it was mainly an act, D’Antonio told Foreign Policy. In truth Trump was all but finished as a major real-estate developer, in the eyes of many in the business, and that’s because the U.S. banking industry was pretty much finished with him. By the early 1990s he had burned through his portion of his father Fred’s fortune with a series of reckless business decisions. Two of his businesses declared bankruptcy, the Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City and the Plaza Hotel in New York, and the money pit that was the Trump Shuttle went out of business in 1992. Trump companies would ultimately declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy two more times. When would-be borrowers repeatedly file for protection from their creditors, they become poison to most major lenders and, according to financial experts interviewed for this story, such was Trump’s reputation in the U.S. financial industry at that juncture.

For the rest of the ’90s a chastened Trump launched little in the way of major new business ventures (with a few exceptions, such as the Trump World Tower across from the United Nations, which began construction in 1999 and was financed by two German lenders, Deutsche Bank and Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank). “He took about 10 years off, and really sort of licked his wounds and tried to recover,” D’Antonio said. As late as 2003, Trump was in such desperate financial trouble that at a meeting with his siblings following his father’s death he pressed them to hurriedly sell his father’s estate off, against the late Fred Trump’s wishes, the New York Times reported in an investigation of Trump family finances in October. And his businesses kept failing: In 2004, Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts filed for bankruptcy with $1.8 billion dollars of debt.

But Trump eventually made a comeback, and according to several sources with knowledge of Trump’s business, foreign money played a large role in reviving his fortunes, in particular investment by wealthy people from Russia and the former Soviet republics. This conclusion is buttressed by a growing body of evidence amassed by news organizations, as well as what is reportedly being investigated by Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the Southern District of New York. It is a conclusion that even Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has appeared to confirm, saying in 2008—after the Trump Organization was prospering again—that “Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets.”

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:40 PM on December 22, 2018 [38 favorites]

I saw someone, and I can't find it again to attribute this, make the analogy to a truck that's rammed itself into the side of a house.

Iyad el-Baghdadi: Imagine someone smashes his truck into a house. Imagine that now, the truck is embedded into the house such that if it backs out, the house will collapse. Got that visual?
(thread)
posted by Etrigan at 8:47 PM on December 22, 2018 [31 favorites]

The first high-profile Republican who's willing to openly defy him will literally make history.

I’m amazed that so few of them are willing to at least act like they’re defying him. Look at how much press Flake etc. get just for saying “I’m a little unsure...” before going along with it anyway.
posted by Etrigan at 8:49 PM on December 22, 2018 [10 favorites]

The hundredth Republican to do so will not be remembered as well. And yet nobody is willing to step up. (Kompromat?)

You have to remember that these people are not leaders; they’re cowards. Standing up to the president in any circumstances would be to take a leading stand against something. That’s not how congressional Republicans operate. You know, leading, and all that.
posted by Brak at 8:57 PM on December 22, 2018 [6 favorites]

I mean, I don't understand how that would work. Right now we have mechanisms by which the Legislative branch can remove the President. We have methods by which the Executive branch (VP+Cabinet) can at least temporarily remove the President.

Except that no president has been removed. Which suggests that the impeachment mechanism is unfit for purpose. (It's too soon to say w/r/t to the 25th amendment, which was a bodge job that still doesn't fix issues of succession.)

If you look at the Federalist papers, there's a somewhat naive belief that partisanship wouldn't prevent those in high office from wanting rid of those unfit for high office. It's a bit like secular version of an ecclesiastical court: there are offences against the public trust that may not constitute crimes but warrant removal from office in the same way a denomination wouldn't want open heretics to remain in good standing.

The French mechanism -- which has never been used, but feels to me better thought out -- involves a Constitutional Council composed of nine appointees, three by the president and three by each of the two legislative chambers, along with all living former presidents. None of them can hold elected office. On referral from the government, the Council can declare the president incapacitated, and if the incapacitation is deemed permanent, there are new elections.
posted by holgate at 9:01 PM on December 22, 2018 [12 favorites]

So our version of that council would include:
- Three people appointed by Trump
- Three people appointed by the Republican House
- Three people appointed by the Republican Senate
- Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama

I can't say I'm sold on this, even before we start taking about what "a referral from the government" would mean in a US context.
posted by contraption at 9:26 PM on December 22, 2018 [5 favorites]

On referral from the government

If we had a government willing to consider whether the president is unfit, our current mechanisms would be sufficient. And if it were any easier to do, Republicans would've forced Obama out of office.

What we need is our current laws enforced - starting with campaign finance laws and moving into emoluments - and a whole lot more transparency around congressional activity.

Then add new laws to prevent things like this from happening again. Start with, "if you violated campaign law while running for office, any votes you received are void, even if it wasn't established until two years later." (And yeah, if that were the case, we might've gotten President Ryan for a few years; I submit to the crowd that we would not be facing anything like the current shenanigans.)

Push for better impeachment processes, and encourage impeachments of incompetent and corrupt judges. Tell Congress that part of their job is removing people who are screwing up the country because enacting laws is meaningless if other people are preventing those laws from working.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:27 PM on December 22, 2018 [9 favorites]

If we had a government willing to consider whether the president is unfit, our current mechanisms would be sufficient. And if it were any easier to do, Republicans would've forced Obama out of office.

Yeah, exactly.

We have to come to grips with the fact that it's probably impossible to design a healthy system of government if at least half the people in the government are corrupt, cowardly, immoral, or all three. The problem isn't the design of the system to remove Trump, it's that the GOP is basically now a Trumpy cult of personality melding racism with corrupt oligarchy and that 40% or more of the country thinks that's a good thing.

Fiddling around the margins of the system design can't solve that.
posted by Justinian at 9:32 PM on December 22, 2018 [51 favorites]

For Trump, ‘a War Every Day,’ Waged Increasingly Alone—At the midpoint of his term, the president has grown more sure of his own judgment and more isolated from anyone else’s than at any point since he took office.

I just want to quote one other bit of this:

As a result, a partisan war may be just what he wants. He has privately told associates that he is glad Democrats won the House in last month’s midterm elections, saying he thinks that guarantees his re-election because they will serve as a useful antagonist.

Setting aside the fact that he makes up self-serving lies like this to deflect responsibility, I don't think he's entirely wrong, given that his entire campaign rests on having a steady diet of enemies to blame for everything, but it's alarming how easy these two sentences roll off the tongue. The President is glad another party won, because he thinks it will help him keep power, even though that comes at the expense of his ability to achieve any of the actual policies he wants. Because he doesn't actually want any policies, and just comes up with them on the spot based on whatever he thinks his base will cheer for at rallies and/or whatever the TV or one of the world's dictators tells him to do. At no point does he stop to conclude that it would be better if Republicans controlled the House because it would enable him to do the things he believes would be best for the country, because he's never once thought about the situation in such terms.

Anyway, what a fitting last act for Paul Ryan, sliding out the side door during a government shutdown as the President he propped up says he's glad his party lost the election.
posted by zachlipton at 9:43 PM on December 22, 2018 [71 favorites]

Oh, speaking of Paul Ryan, ~~Homer~~ Riane Konc over at McSweeney's has the only farewell you need, The Myth of Paul Ryan

Sing to me, O Fox Muse, of that noodle-spined hero who traveled far and wide, born in Janesville, Wisconsin, the last born son of Dracula and a polo shirt. Many cities of men he saw on Listening Tours: men who were steelworkers, and coal miners, and men who toiled and farmed and hammered and sweat; he met with men with collars of blue and skin of white, and he made a very serious Listening Face at them, which was where he pursed his lips and nodded at three-second intervals, in this way fighting the urge to yell, “Your money should be my money!”

Yes, many cities of men he saw, and learned their minds, but he could not save them from — I’m sorry, is this right, Muse? It says he was trying to save them from being able to afford healthcare? He dedicated basically his entire life to that? That’s correct as written? Okay.
...
Remind me, O Muse, of his legislative victories, of his many bills sponsored, signed into law. This man of myth, this champion of the Pulled Bootstraps, this Hero Paul Ryan, whose nineteen years in the House of Representatives resulted in — okay, surely, Muse, this part has to be a typo. He was the primary sponsor of over 70 bills and only three of them were signed into law? One that renamed a post office and one that lowered the tax on … arrow shafts?

Okay, then, if this is what we’re working with, I guess that, uh, we sing and we celebrate our hero, Paul Davis Ryan, the man with just as many first names as sponsored bills signed into law.

posted by zachlipton at 10:00 PM on December 22, 2018 [106 favorites]

I’m amazed that so few of them are willing to at least act like they’re defying him.

I don't think they can. I don't think a Republican can come out and say "We don't need a wall", because it's not about a wall. The wall is a racist dog whistle used to signify commitment to white supremacy. This is how you get supporters claiming they never expected a literal wall, that at the same time demand a wall, and go to rallies pumping their fists while chanting "Build the wall".

If you're a problem oriented liberal, you think you can reach Trump supporters by pointing out more effective border security solutions. If you're an ideologically oriented Republican, you understand that the wall is code for white supremacy. A more practical solution to border security is beside the point. It only serves to show you're an enemy of the ideology.

It's been this way for as long as I can remember, but the dog whistles of the past, for instance being tough on crime, were much more plausible as real problems Americans cared about. The new dog whistles are absurdly impractical solutions to non-existent problems. The good news is they're so absurd they barely function as code.

Does any reasonable person believe a wall is a good way to address border security? No. Does any reasonable person believe global warming is a hoax? No. The center of gravity around which Trump's proposals revolve is that they hurt brown people more than white people. You can take the shirt off a Trump supporter's back if you tell them it means you will take two shirts from a brown person. You can literally lead the world to its end, so long as brown people will go first.

Anyway, this is an extreme point of view. I'm not sure how completely I buy it. I certainly don't want to believe that racism is the primary force driving half the country, but it's increasingly the only explanation of Trump's supporters that makes sense to me.
posted by xammerboy at 10:26 PM on December 22, 2018 [118 favorites]

I certainly don't want to believe that racism is the primary force driving half the country, but it's increasingly the only explanation of Trump's supporters that makes sense to me.

I'd believe it's the primary force for about 1/5 of the country, and the vast majority of that fifth are Republicans. For the rest, about half of his supporters have misogyny as their primary motivator; they're happy to vote for whoever promises that women don't get to control their bodies. The rest are duped into believing that one or more of his grandiose lies are actually real plans; they latched onto whatever one or two bits of campaign babble sounded like "your life will be better in the future" and ignored everything else he said.

I'm putting most of the "rational moderates" in that last category - they told themselves "it can't be that bad" and "as long as he does that thing with the taxes, I'll be fine" or "my health care costs need to go down" and who cares how many people he kills, or whether the country will be inhabitable in fifty years, as long as they get the prize they think they deserve. That crowd is only just starting to get annoyed, as they realize that not only are they stuck in a nightmare, they're not getting their prize package.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:36 PM on December 22, 2018 [39 favorites]

Mystery company involved in Mueller investigation appeals to Supreme Court

Um. Ok so like, an unknown company owned by an unrevealed foreign state is appealing to the US Supreme Court, hoping to pause a grand jury subpoena it received in the Mueller investigations that would force them to reveal information about actions that took place outside of the US but directly affected the US.

"So far as we know, the Court has never had a sealed argument before all nine Justices. They can keep parts of the record and briefing sealed, and often do, such as in cases implicating trade secrets. But there's no procedure in the court's rules for having the whole case briefed, argued and decided under seal. The only times I'm aware of in which parties tried it, the court denied certiorari," said Steve Vladeck, a CNN Supreme Court analyst and professor at the University of Texas School of Law.

There are a number of emoji to express my reaction to this, including but not limited to 🤔, 🤨, 😵and 😱.
posted by glonous keming at 10:42 PM on December 22, 2018 [47 favorites]

SakuraK: [Twitter has] simply stepped up censorship of statements that might make Republicans feel bad about themselves.

My hairstylist (who, for catharsis, regularly tweets insults at politics-related right-wing people who piss her off) told me last week, "Twitter's enforcement of the rules is really tight! I keep getting banned!"

Me: "Uh...Twitter lets white supremacists and misogynists tweet horrible racist, anti-Semitic, hateful, graphic shit, for months or years, and IF Twitter punishes one of them for it, it's a slap on the wrist. You think Twitter enforces the rules evenly. But Twitter is fine with people who are hateful right-wingers. I can give you some names to look up if you want to see."

Her: "Oh. I didn't realize they weren't doing it to everybody."

She's relatively well-informed, compared to a lot of others in my nominally liberal circles. I've been making a polite pain in the ass of myself, shoehorning politics into my conversations with everyone I encounter, just to take their temperatures regarding attention level. Often the results are depressingly low-information, like "They'll be out in 2020! It's like a pendulum!", but I push them on their sources and say why I disagree. Then I drop it before they start hating me too deeply. I think it's useful to sprinkle seeds around like that. You never know what's going to make them germinate.
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 11:00 PM on December 22, 2018 [41 favorites]

With Mattis and Kelly heading for the door and the myth of “adults in the room” evaporating, now feels like a good time to remind everyone that, yes, We The People really did hand a flailing, impulsive ignoramus the unadulterated power to end life on Earth as we know it.
On a daily basis folks insist to me this isn’t how it works. They need to believe that someone — Sec Def, the Joint Chiefs, or a general, somewhere, surely — has to agree. Because the alternative sounds too insane to be real life.
Allow me to burst your precious bubble.
posted by adamvasco at 5:00 AM on December 23, 2018 [41 favorites]

None have. None will. Because they all agree with Trump and hate Democrats more than they care about democracy, and want to get paid for doing it.

That's the key reality-check here. They don't disagree with the horrible things he's doing. They hate that he's doing a bad job of it.
posted by Celsius1414 at 5:35 AM on December 23, 2018 [19 favorites]

The Veteran Who Has Raised Over $12 Million To Fund Trump's Wall Made Money Off Peddling Conspiracy Theories And Fake News

Grifters gonna grift.
posted by soundguy99 at 5:52 AM on December 23, 2018 [20 favorites]

WaPo: ‘Very possible’ that government shutdown could last into the new year, says White House budget director Mick Mulvaney
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:35 AM on December 23, 2018 [1 favorite]

An expression of concern heard from the Commonwealth!

From Yamiche Alcindor: @SenToomey tells @chucktodd that senators should speak up when they disagree with President Trump. “We don’t report to the president.”
posted by MonkeyToes at 6:44 AM on December 23, 2018 [7 favorites]

"White House Budget Director" who's not actually directing the budget office anymore because there was nobody else who's been dignity wraith'd hard enough to become the new chief of staff.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 6:47 AM on December 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

WaPo: ‘Very possible’ that government shutdown could last into the new year, says White House budget director Mick Mulvaney

I’m really not sure they even realize they lose leverage when Democrats take over on Jan 3.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:48 AM on December 23, 2018 [19 favorites]

From Yamiche Alcindor: @SenToomey tells @chucktodd that senators should speak up when they disagree with President Trump. “We don’t report to the president.”

Pat Toomey is as servile a Trump-supporting Republican as the GOP could want. 538 tracks him voting almost 90% of the time with Trump's agenda, which is out of sync with a purplish-blue state like Pennsylvania. Most notably, he helped take point on legislative negotiations with the Trump White House over the disastrous health care and tax cut bills. (Here's a tweet of him with Ivanka, thanking her for meeting to discuss how "#TaxReform improves the standard of living for hardworking American families".) He disagrees with Trump on trade, particularly anything that affects Pennsylvania's steel industry, but that's about all.

He's certainly faithless enough to turn on Trump once the political winds have shifted, but we're nowhere near that point.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:01 AM on December 23, 2018 [13 favorites]

A recession is coming. Trump will make it so much worse. (Catherine Rampell, WaPo)

Statistically speaking, given how long the economy has been growing, a recession is overdue — and the eventual collapse may bear Trump’s fingerprints. After all, his new trade barriers have lifted manufacturing costs, closed off markets and clouded the future for American firms with global supply chains. Economists say Trump’s trade war is the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019. In loonier moments, the president has also threatened to default on our debt, ramp up the money-printing press, reinstate the gold standard or deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants. Some of those policies would ignite not just a recession but an immediate, global financial crisis.

Or perhaps the contraction will follow some non-Trump-related catastrophe, like an oil shock or a wave of defaults in the growing leveraged loan market. It’s often impossible to ascribe blame accurately.

Yet there’s one thing we can expect with reasonable conviction: Even if Trump isn’t the direct cause of the next recession, he’s likely to make it so, so much worse.

TL;DR: we're fucked, even if Trump follows good advice.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:56 AM on December 23, 2018 [24 favorites]

For over a year, Mattis has been trying to reassure congressional leaders that he could help check some of Trump’s impulses, in part by intervening in the nuclear chain of command. In a break with normal procedures, Mattis reportedly told the commander of the Strategic Command to keep him directly informed of any event that might lead to a nuclear alert being sent to the president. He even told the Strategic Command “not to put on a pot of coffee without letting him know.”

Congressional leaders interpreted this to mean that Mattis would either deal with a possible threat before it reached Trump or ensure he was present to advise Trump when such an alert arrived.

This assurance may have helped ease concerns about our nuclear weapons for some members of Congress, but only if they were unfamiliar with how the command and control structure truly works. Personal relationships and back channels are no way to manage a nuclear arsenal.

Arms Control Wonk Jeffrey Lewis: "An important observation—note that Martis reportedly inserted himself at the point *before* an alert went to POTUS. That’s because THERE IS NO TIME AFTER."

WaPo's Michael Gerson: "Talked to R Senator yesterday who is not prone to hyperbole. In the course of our conversation on the departure of Mattis he said twice: “We are in peril”. Many in DC, including Rs, now unsure if administration can be relied upon to carry out its most basic nat sec duties."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:58 AM on December 23, 2018 [39 favorites]

> Many in DC, including Rs, now unsure if administration can be relied upon to carry out its most basic nat sec duties."

This is what you assholes voted for. You supported and voted for and propped up Trump because you thought it would net you a few bucks and because he was wearing your team’s sweater, thinking that you could mitigate or ride out or endlessly defer any negative consequences for yourselves. And now you’re scared. And yet still - STILL - you are not willing to go on the record when you express your McCainian “concerns” about the madman you serve and who could end civilization as we know it. Well, I hope you’re enjoying your tax cut.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:14 AM on December 23, 2018 [73 favorites]

I’m really not sure they even realize they lose leverage when Democrats take over on Jan 3.

Sure they do. And then they can bash the Democrats for not ending the shutdown. That's exactly what they (and Fox "news") will do. Just like they'll start hammering the Democrats about the terrible growing deficit. They are utterly without shame, after all.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:14 AM on December 23, 2018 [5 favorites]

Part of me thinks we would see movement on impeachment if RBG's health wasn't a topic of discussion for two weeks.
posted by Slackermagee at 8:19 AM on December 23, 2018 [3 favorites]

WaPo's Philip Rucker provides an solid overview of this critical juncture: ‘A Rogue Presidency’: The Era of Containing Trump Is Over.

Interestingly, he draws on what people have said publicly and quotes only one anonymous source: "One former senior administration official said “an intervention” might be necessary. And a Republican strategist who works closely with the White House called the situation “serious, serious, serious.” […] “There are no adults like there were in Nixon days,” this strategist said. “And the V.P. is perceived as nowhere. He’s just a bobblehead."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:22 AM on December 23, 2018 [11 favorites]

Speaking of money:

Fed Rate Hikes May Have Already Cost Trump $5 Million a Year
Took out $340 million in variable-rate loans from 2012 to 2015
Trump’s net worth dropped about 7 percent over two years

President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s interest-rate increases as a drag on U.S. economic growth. They’re also cutting into his own fortune.

Every time the Fed raises rates, Trump’s payments on some $340 million in variable-rate loans go up. Since his January 2017 inauguration, the Fed’s steady rate hikes may have added a cumulative $5.1 million a year to his debt service costs, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of the president’s financial disclosures and property records.

If Federal Reserve officials raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when they meet Dec. 18-19, as investors expect, make that $6 million per year.

posted by scalefree at 8:35 AM on December 23, 2018 [11 favorites]

Congressional leaders interpreted this to mean that Mattis would either deal with a possible threat before it reached Trump or ensure he was present to advise Trump when such an alert arrived.

I can't remember where I heard it, but someone with Pentagon connections said that the public still doesn't know about a number of times where the manchild's impetuosity would have provoked a full-on crisis and Mattis had intervened. I suspect we'll know soon enough, especially as Mattis is being shown the door immediately.

The idea of a narcissistic psychopath stewing in the White House over Christmas while the national Christmas tree is switched off and fenced off is not that funny any more. There's a lot of narcissistic injury happening and the worst enablers gathered around him. He will want to make himself the centre of attention at the point where the nation is taking a break from him.
posted by holgate at 8:41 AM on December 23, 2018 [7 favorites]

You know how Mattis said he would stay on until the end of February to ensure a smooth transition? Yeah, not so much with Trump apparently. He just tweeted the new acting SoD will take control on January 1st! Adios, Mad Dog.

The acting Secretary will be Patrick Shanahan, formerly of Boeing.
posted by Justinian at 8:53 AM on December 23, 2018 [11 favorites]

I see Shanahan's Wikipedia entry has been brushed up by Trump supporters. They leave spoor.

Building upon Trump's proposed Pentagon budget, which includes the biggest military spending increase in years, Shanahan was nominated to spearhead the plans to increase the size of the military.
posted by stonepharisee at 8:58 AM on December 23, 2018 [10 favorites]

There's a lot of narcissistic injury happening and the worst enablers gathered around him. He will want to make himself the centre of attention at the point where the nation is taking a break from him

A real impeachment fight is starting to look like the most patriotic thing the Dems could do, and not just for the most obvious reasons. Even if we can't get the Senate to remove him, the fight will distract him and give him something long and protracted to rail against that does not, crucially, involve the potential use of nuclear weapons.

Get it all out there. All of it. Call these people to testify in front of the House, not just give quotes to newspapers. Force the Republican party to defend the indefensible right into the 2020 season, and distract him at the same time.

It really is an emergency. And who knows. Maybe enough Senators are now genuinely scared, too. Especially if Bobblehead Pence is waiting in the wings.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:59 AM on December 23, 2018 [20 favorites]

So on Jan 2nd, there'll be acting Defense, AG, Interior, EPA, and an acting WH chief of staff who hands off responsibility at OMB to a deputy. That's the kind of instability in which power becomes concentrated towards the centre, with a penumbra of family/toadie hangers-on.
posted by holgate at 9:03 AM on December 23, 2018 [25 favorites]

Leading By the Seat of His Diapers (Terry H. Schwadron, DCReport)

Through a variety of new sweeping but baseless actions, insulting statements and tweets, through increasing isolation from advice that he finds unnecessary to filter his gut opinion, Trump is showing his full hand now, that of a small-time thinker with an oversized ego who is leading through self-importance.
...
This is a simple request: Should we expect that our president lead? I don’t see it. In its place, we have a petulant president who insists, the facts notwithstanding, on having his own way or not at all. We can do better.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:03 AM on December 23, 2018 [3 favorites]

We now have three “acting” members of the cabinet. At this rate, the entire cabinet will be filled with actors—

Oh.
posted by snortasprocket at 9:03 AM on December 23, 2018 [30 favorites]

Here's Shanahan's DoD bio from when he was Deputy Secretary of Defense.

Here's what went down during his confirmation hearings for that position from June 2017: Trump’s Pick For the No. 2 Pentagon Job Faces Tough Questions During Confirmation Hearing (WaPo)

President Trump’s choice to take the No. 2 job at the Pentagon had a rocky confirmation hearing Tuesday, with Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.) at one point threatening to withhold his nomination from a vote and other lawmakers questioning how he will overcome his lack of experience in the Defense Department.

Patrick M. Shanahan, a vice president at the aerospace company and defense contractor Boeing, who was nominated in March to be deputy defense secretary, also faced questions about how he would manage day-to-day operations in the Pentagon while recusing himself from all decisions with a tie to Boeing. Shanahan has worked for the defense behemoth since 1986, with stints overseeing civilian airliner programs and military equipment.

McCain needled Shanahan early in the hearing about his prepared answer to a question about the U.S. potentially supplying weapons to Ukraine to face Russian-backed separatists. Shanahan wrote that he would have to look at the issue.[…]

On his lack of experience in the Defense Department, Shanahan said he has worked in a variety of organizations and thinks his technical and management experience “will prepare me to be able to quickly assimilate the knowledge and expertise to properly interface.”[…]

Shanahan said his experience in industry and innovation has prepared him to contribute as deputy defense secretary and will help him complement Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, whom he called a “master strategist with deep military and foreign policy experience.”

While a return to civilian leadership at the DoD would normally be welcome, there's no way this clown is ready for primetime—Trump boasts of Shanahan's "long list of accomplishments while serving as Deputy, & previously Boeing" but obviously doesn't mention any specifics.

Meanwhile @realDonaldTrump says today he had "a long and productive call" with Erdogan of Turkey, in which he says they talked about ISIS, Syria, and "the slow & highly coordinated pullout of U.S. troops"—plus "heavily expanded Trade". As always, there are no details, and the Trump White House has long since dispensed with providing substantive readouts, if any, of his calls with foreign leaders.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:11 AM on December 23, 2018 [10 favorites]

The acting Secretary will be Patrick Shanahan, formerly of Boeing.

... I wonder if, unlike Brett McGurk, Trump has actually met Shanahan? And what are the chances, that just like with Mulvaney, video of Shanahan calling Trump an idiot are uncovered within the hour?

JFC, What a shitshow.
posted by pjsky at 9:14 AM on December 23, 2018 [10 favorites]

WaPo on the breaking DoD news:

Trump forces Mattis out two months early, names Shanahan acting defense secretary
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:16 AM on December 23, 2018 [7 favorites]

Is there anything stopping the Dems from holding lengthy public hearings into Trump’s mental fitness for office?
posted by schadenfrau at 9:30 AM on December 23, 2018 [34 favorites]

Trump Can Launch Nuclear Weapons Whenever He Wants, With Or Without Mattis

The biggest protection we have against a nuclear launch, is if nobody helps him. Just hand him the damn football on request - and don't tell him how to navigate the contents; don't read the text out loud to him; don't explain the flowcharts or help him figure out which codeword to give to whoever answers each phone number.

I'm not sure he even carries reading glasses with him when he's out playing golf. He certainly doesn't have any recent practice with data tables, not even with headers as simple as "Name - Agency - Title - Phone Number - Secret Code."

I'm aware this is not particularly comforting, but I will take my shreds of hope where I can find them. The Secret Service may be required to carry around the football in his presence and hand it over whenever he wants, but their job description doesn't include reading top-secret instructions out loud, where anyone with a boom mic could record them.

Is there anything stopping the Dems from holding lengthy public hearings into Trump’s mental fitness for office?

Other than their need to actually work on legislature like a new tax law and fixing health care, no. Oh, and investigating his finances, which is a realm with more solid data than his "mental health," which isn't quantifiable. I'd rather they keep looking for fraud, emoluments, tax evasion, and obstruction evidence, because we all know that "dude be whack he gonna kill someone" is not considered a sign of mental illness in white men.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:05 AM on December 23, 2018 [21 favorites]

We now have three “acting” members of the cabinet.

And they're three of the top five departments by seniority, which means there's a massive hole in the presidential succession, because no one's ever really hashed out whether an Acting Secretary belongs on the list.

So... merry Christmas to all. Everything is fine. Well-oiled machine.
posted by Etrigan at 10:16 AM on December 23, 2018 [21 favorites]

Oh, and investigating his finances, which is a realm with more solid data than his "mental health," which isn't quantifiable.

No, it’s the kind of thing you can build an emotionally compelling narrative around with which to sway public opinion. It’s the only thing that’s ever worked. Numbers and crimes most people don’t understand won’t do it. “If it bleeds, it leads” isn’t going to stop being true anytime soon.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:20 AM on December 23, 2018 [3 favorites]

Mattis resigned, specifying a late-February end date; DJT trashed him on Twitter, and is forcing him out early by naming Shanahan.

This is the worst "The Gift of the Magi" riff ever.
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:34 AM on December 23, 2018 [10 favorites]

You know how Mattis said he would stay on until the end of February to ensure a smooth transition? Yeah, not so much with Trump apparently. He just tweeted the new acting

Sincere question. How can the 25th amendment even work if the guy in the Oval Office can just fire people immediately upon them showing a sign of disloyalty? If someone triggered it, this makes it look like he could just fire everyone else so no one is left to vote.
posted by corb at 10:42 AM on December 23, 2018 [26 favorites]

This is the worst "The Gift of the Magi" riff ever.

The Grift of the MAGA
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:43 AM on December 23, 2018 [130 favorites]

Eh, I have to believe the poor attache hauling around the briefcase for Trump has ears and would be willing to tell the man baby no if there were no current threat of WMDs being used against the US or it's allies.

I certainly wouldn't dare even hope that process would slow Trump down if there were some happening that could be construed as an existential threat, but an unprovoked attack? A surprising number of people in the missile bunkers refuse to turn the key and always have, so it's hard for me to think that someone not beholden to Trump would go along without a damn good reason.
posted by wierdo at 10:47 AM on December 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

today on ABC's This Week:

Mick Mulvaney: We're in a "good place" on getting wall built and having Mexico "participate" in border security.

@jonkarl: "But none of that is Mexico paying for the wall"

Mulvaney: "Technically, you and I both know that it cannot work exactly like that"

unfortunately, the president of the goddamn united states does not know that, mick
posted by murphy slaw at 10:48 AM on December 23, 2018 [29 favorites]

Eh, I have to believe the poor attache hauling around the briefcase for Trump has ears and would be willing to tell the man baby no if there were no current threat of WMDs being used against the US or it's allies.

The continued existence of humanity thanks to the decisions in the moment of people like Stanislav Petrov and William Bassett tells us that it's certainly possible that people won't just follow orders in these situations. But the hope that everyone will successfully not follow orders isn't a plan.
posted by Etrigan at 10:52 AM on December 23, 2018 [65 favorites]

Aides report that Trump had not realized how scathing Mattis’s resignation was until TV news explained its contents.

Wow.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 10:56 AM on December 23, 2018 [88 favorites]

Sincere question. How can the 25th amendment even work if...

The framers and the amenders and everyone up to a few years back all agreed that there are only so many systemic obstacles you can put in the way of someone who's truly stupidly insanely evil. Logically, if the Cabinet told Congress "We convened to discuss invoking the 25th Amendment, and the President fired us all," the resulting articles of impeachment could be written on a fucking cocktail napkin and still pass by at least 400 votes, and the Chief Justice would FaceTime in as the Senate voted 96-0 (because Alaska and Hawaii were out of town) to convict and it would be done by goddamn lunchtime.

But here we are in the Year of Our Lord 2018, when the motto of the United States of America is the Latin version of the shrug emoji.
posted by Etrigan at 10:56 AM on December 23, 2018 [69 favorites]

Oh, it's no plan and I'd feel a lot better if Congress passed a law making the approval of Congress or even just a couple of its committees necessary to use strategic nuclear weapons outside of a confirmed incoming attack of a size large enough to prevent a retaliatory strike.

I'd be even happier getting rid of the damn things entirely, but that ain't happening for a host of reasons, a couple of which I don't entirely disagree with.
posted by wierdo at 10:58 AM on December 23, 2018 [1 favorite]

Sincere question. How can the 25th amendment even work if the guy in the Oval Office can just fire people immediately upon them showing a sign of disloyalty?

Because the 25th isn't really supposed to be the fallback in case of "the President is a dangerous narcissistic manbaby". That's what impeachment is for. The 25th Amendment is for "the President had a stroke and is unable to speak or otherwise communicate" or "The President fell down the stairs and is in a coma."

Which is why everyone talking about the 25th Amendment is weird. If you have the votes in Congress to sustain the 25th Amendment once Trump challenges it, you have more than enough votes to just impeach the guy.

The 25th Amendment will not save you.
posted by Justinian at 11:04 AM on December 23, 2018 [52 favorites]

Also, one of the reasons I believe that the military rank and file would resist is that, for all our faults, standing orders give members of the military the power to refuse orders that violate US law or the laws of war, which an unprovoked nuclear strike certainly would. They would also be (theoretically) subject to punishment for following such an unlawful order, though there may not be anybody left to prosecute them..
posted by wierdo at 11:04 AM on December 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

Eh, I have to believe the poor attache hauling around the briefcase for Trump has ears and would be willing to tell the man baby no if there were no current threat of WMDs being used against the US or it's allies.

Try to imagine a selection process that looks for this in a candidate.

"We want you to serve as the attache for the president responsible for the nuclear football. If he says he wants to use it, for any reason, are you ready to tell him no?"

Try to imagine how that conversation works. Sit with that conundrum for a while. I 100% want to believe the people in the nuclear chain are capable and ready to say no, and I have good reasons to have some faith in that, but it's all still hope and faith. We probably need a better system than hoping and imagining something like that happens.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:04 AM on December 23, 2018 [4 favorites]

But here we are in the Year of Our Lord 2018, when the motto of the United States of America is the Latin version of the shrug emoji.

Meh pluribus unum.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:11 AM on December 23, 2018 [53 favorites]

Think about how we're discussing hypotheticals about whether the football guy would refuse an order to end human civilization, then think about how a tiny handful of Republicans in the House and Senate could allow us to not be forced to ponder those hypotheticals, then ask yourself if there's any point to any Democrat trying to find common ground with any Republican ever again.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:12 AM on December 23, 2018 [61 favorites]

You can take the shirt off a Trump supporter's back if you tell them it means you will take two shirts from a brown person.

LBJ:

If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:17 AM on December 23, 2018 [30 favorites]

If the question is, “Would these people be instrumental in preventing a nuclear holocaust?” and the answer is, “Maybe, but probably not” then we can safely make plans to also remove those people from positions where they might be in charge of those decisions.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:27 AM on December 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

Aides report that Trump had not realized how scathing Mattis’s resignation was until TV news explained its contents.

To be fair, if the letter had gone under the radar and not been picked up on by TV it's likely that Trump wouldn't have cared, no matter if someone had sat him down and explained what the letter meant. All he cares about is how things play, if the coverage is good or bad for him. The idea that folks on TV connected the dots for him and he had some kind of intellectual realization about what was Really Going On with Mattis belies everything we know about Trump.
posted by wemayfreeze at 11:34 AM on December 23, 2018 [13 favorites]

Eh, I have to believe the poor attache hauling around the briefcase for Trump has ears and would be willing to tell the man baby no if there were no current threat of WMDs being used against the US or it's allies.

I've mentioned it before but it seems appropriate to repeat it.

Before the election TPTB knew that Trump was compromised by Russia. So I keep hope alive by imagining there's some RAND study from the 60's they dusted off outlining what to do if The President is compromised.

"Fake codes" just in case he tries to transfer them to Russia, and the of course the guy carrying the football is actually keeping him under surveillance.
posted by mikelieman at 11:40 AM on December 23, 2018 [9 favorites]

The framers and the amenders and everyone up to a few years back all agreed that there are only so many systemic obstacles you can put in the way of someone who's truly stupidly insanely evil.

And the Electoral College was supposed to prevent demagogues from being elected. And the Emoluments Clause is supposed to punish people from profiting on elected office.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:47 AM on December 23, 2018 [63 favorites]

So I keep hope alive by imagining there's some RAND study from the 60's they dusted off outlining what to do if The President is compromised.

This is likely in the appendix of the same RAND study that says that nuclear deterrence is safe and effective because leaders of superpowers are certainly rational actors. It's just a list of favorite cocktail recipes, a la Danger 5.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 11:48 AM on December 23, 2018 [4 favorites]

Before the election TPTB knew that Trump was compromised by Russia. So I keep hope alive by imagining there's some RAND study from the 60's they dusted off outlining what to do if The President is compromised.

"Fake codes" just in case he tries to transfer them to Russia, and the of course the guy carrying the football is actually keeping him under surveillance.

if The Powers That Be were sure enough that trump was pwned to take these precautions, he would not be president right now.

institutions will not save us.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:48 AM on December 23, 2018 [20 favorites]

"Well-oiled machine" anagrammed: "Headline Will Come"
posted by Stoneshop at 11:53 AM on December 23, 2018 [31 favorites]

@jeneps: Sec. Pompeo was the one who conveyed to Sec. Mattis today that he was being asked to leave the Pentagon by Jan. 1 and not staying on through Feb. 28, per a senior administration official

The guy who tried to trademark "you're fired" is utterly incapable of actually firing anyone himself.
posted by zachlipton at 12:05 PM on December 23, 2018 [39 favorites]

Foreign Policy, U.S. Mulls End To Remaining Aid Programs For Palestinians

The U.S. Agency for International Development could shutter all of its operations in the West Bank and Gaza by early 2019, a move that aid workers and former officials warn could have devastating humanitarian consequences and risk derailing the Trump administration’s long-awaited peace plan.

The drawdown, described to Foreign Policy by four U.S. officials and congressional sources, follows the Trump administration’s broad crackdown on support and assistance to Palestinians as top officials led by White House senior advisor Jared Kushner try to pressure the Palestinian Authority to strike a peace accord with Israel.

It follows a law that President Donald Trump signed in October—the Anti-Terrorism Clarification Act of 2018—which allows U.S. courts to use Palestinians’ frozen assets to pay financial reparations to families of U.S. citizens killed in Palestinian terrorist attacks. The law would require the Palestinians submit to the jurisdiction of U.S. courts in exchange for receiving U.S. financial assistance—which it is unlikely to do. This calls into the question the fate of USAID’s presence in the region and vital aid programs that have become a lifeline for many in Gaza.

On Friday, the Associated Press reported the administration was dispatching Army Lt. Gen. Eric Wendt, the U.S. security coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority, to Congress to convince members to amend the law and keep some U.S. assistance flowing, lest it derail prospects for the peace plan.

There's also concern that the situation could end $60m/year in security assistance funding that we give to the Palestinians. This would all be on top of the existing cuts, measured in the hundreds of millions, to aid to Palestinians, including UNRWA, as part of an entirely unsuccessful plan to drive negotiations forward. There have been no talks since the Jerusalem embassy announcement (which, fun fact, is still not entirely official, as the Ambassador's residence hasn't been moved).

NPR reported that USAID grant recipients were notified yesterday that they should plan to have their funding end by January 31. There's talk of getting Congress to pass an amendment to the amendment to the Anti-Terrorism Clarification Act that would undo this.
posted by zachlipton at 12:17 PM on December 23, 2018 [11 favorites]

Sec. Pompeo was the one who conveyed to Sec. Mattis today that he was being asked to leave the Pentagon by Jan. 1 and not staying on through Feb. 28, per a senior administration official

The guy who tried to trademark "you're fired" is utterly incapable of actually firing anyone himself.

There is no boss more contemptible than one who passes messages of import via people at the same pay grade. You're not even managing at that point, much less commanding or leading. Pick up the fucking phone, you homunculus.
posted by Etrigan at 12:23 PM on December 23, 2018 [23 favorites]

For Trump, ‘a War Every Day,’ Waged Increasingly Alone

To follow up her article, today Maggie Haberman has been sprinkling her Twitter feed with tidbits that were cut from her article and observations about Trump from her longstanding relationship with him:

—Not in our piece, but several people we spoke with said Trump's tone has gotten "meaner" - their word - since Hope Hicks left
—Like Shaq’s shoe in his 26th floor corner office at Trump Tower, the president has taken to showing several groups of visitors letters from KJU as if they’re memorabilia
—Among the things that brought Trump joy in recent months - parting ways with Kelly, which he told several people was thrilled to have done.
—There are few things that aggravate the president as much as descriptions of his bad moods (when he has been in bad moods) or him yelling at people (when he has been yelling at people). [n.b. Haberman describes Trump as calling his aides “fucking idiots!” when he's angry, except since she's not allowed to swear in the Grey Lady's pages, she resorts to euphemisms, like a TV dub of an R-rated movie]
—I'm not a fan of presidential mood rings broadly, but a facet of working for Trump - according to anyone who ever has - is that he is a screamer when upset. The thing is, he vents and then five seconds later he seems calm, as if the yelling didn't happen

Incidentally, reading Haberman's article alongside standard rightwing coverage of Trump is an instructive exercise. Thanks to her access—her journalistic relationship with Trump goes back to her days at Murdoch's New York Post—she can offer inside information that her colleagues at other papers can't, but to maintain that access for the NYT, she has to curb negative coverage so that it won't anger her sources too much. (Her latest piece quotes only a single Democrat, the Blue Dog newcomer/nonentity Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), for instance.) In that respect, the spin on her pieces is similar to those in, say, the Washington Examiner or the Washington Times, except it carries with the Grey Lady's imprimatur for the mainstream audience.

In any case, the big question behind this steady drip-drip of juicy access-info is if Haberman's merely trying to promote her piece—most of these tweets link back to it—or if she's attempting to rile Trump up into angry-tweeting about it, the way he's done in the past.

@realDonaldTrump, however, is too busy this afternoon with tweeting about Bob Corker (he "wanted to run but poll numbers TANKED when I wouldn’t endorse him"), his Criminal Justice Reform and the Farm Bill legislation ("two Big Deals"), and the Indonesian tsunami (only 51% chance Trump wrote that one, compared to 98% on the other two).
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:26 PM on December 23, 2018 [4 favorites]

Before the election TPTB knew that Trump was compromised by Russia. So I keep hope alive by imagining there's some RAND study from the 60's they dusted off outlining what to do if The President is compromised.

"Fake codes" just in case he tries to transfer them to Russia, and the of course the guy carrying the football is actually keeping him under surveillance.

Wow, that's some real "Deep State" stuff right there. (Not that that's a bad thing, in this case.)
posted by ZenMasterThis at 12:31 PM on December 23, 2018

The fundamental issue with Haberman is that her schtick is a) a two-year buried lede; b) getting pissy on Twitter when anyone points it out.
posted by holgate at 12:34 PM on December 23, 2018 [12 favorites]

[Twitter wars]
Trump: Brett McGurk, who I do not know, was appointed by President Obama in 2015. Was supposed to leave in February but he just resigned prior to leaving. Grandstander? The Fake News is making such a big deal about this nothing event!
ChrisMurphyCT: Uhhhh...you don’t know your own coordinator of the anti-ISIS campaign? Over the past 5 years, no one has done more to put ISIS on its heels than Brett. We all know and rely on him. The fact that our President has no clue who Brett is should scare the hell out of every American.
posted by growabrain at 12:35 PM on December 23, 2018 [86 favorites]

This is the worst cheap paperback spy thriller plot and quality of writing, especially dialogue, I've ever come across. Do not buy.
posted by infini at 12:37 PM on December 23, 2018 [26 favorites]

[Twitter wars]
Trump: 'Senator Bob Corker just stated that, “I’m so priveledged to serve in the Senate for twelve years, and that’s what I told the people of our state that’s what I’d do, serve for two terms.” But that is Not True - wanted to run but poll numbers TANKED when I wouldn’t endorse him.....'

Corker: 'Yes, just like Mexico is paying for the wall... #AlertTheDaycareStaff'
posted by PenDevil at 12:39 PM on December 23, 2018 [20 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump, however, is too busy this afternoon with tweeting about Bob Corker

Why Corker? Corker on CNN today
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:39 PM on December 23, 2018 [7 favorites]

"Why is anyone surprised that Trump's willing to shut down our government when it's clearly not the one he works for?"
posted by growabrain at 12:44 PM on December 23, 2018 [32 favorites]

The thing is, he vents and then five seconds later he seems calm, as if the yelling didn't happen

so, classic abusive boss/parent/spouse behavior
posted by murphy slaw at 12:47 PM on December 23, 2018 [55 favorites]

so, classic abusive boss/parent/spouse behavior

I was thinking more like my 4 year old niece.
posted by PenDevil at 12:50 PM on December 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

The fundamental issue with Haberman is that her schtick is a) a two-year buried lede; b) getting pissy on Twitter when anyone points it out.

That and her six-figure book deal about the Trump administration that's riding on her continued access to Trumpland (especially since she's now the sole author on the package deal).
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:51 PM on December 23, 2018 [6 favorites]

If our institutions no longer work, if we no longer have faith in them, if there’s no way to count on government even functioning (three shutdowns this year alone), then perhaps ultimately we become open to something else. Whatever we choose to call it, whether we openly acknowledge it at all, my fear is that we will choose certainty, strength and predictability over this constant dysfunction, even if it comes at the price of our democracy (the press; the ballot box; the courts; congress and representative government).

If there were ever a man to exploit this precarious moment for our country and our form of government, it’s Trump

Beto on the shutdown
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:15 PM on December 23, 2018 [40 favorites]

CNN: Mnuchin speaks with US bank executives to reassure investors after Wall Street whiplash

In a precautionary move, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spent Sunday on the phone speaking with the chief executives of some of the country's largest banks to avoid yet another market whiplash when Wall Street opens Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter.[…]

"It's being pre-emptive," a person familiar with the matter told CNN. "It's sending the proper message to the market so they can calculate the real picture into their Monday opening. They don't have to wait until something happens to be reassured. […]

"The market volatility is not changing the strong fundamentals of the economy," said the person. "Systems remain normal."

Spoiler: systems are not normal, and this is not reassuring.
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:41 PM on December 23, 2018 [25 favorites]

In a precautionary move, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spent Sunday on the phone speaking with the chief executives of some of the country's largest banks to avoid yet another market whiplash when Wall Street opens Monday

Worth noting that Mnuchin made that call from Cabo San Lucas, Mexico where he is on vacation playing golf, accompanied by his staff of working-without-pay secret service agents.
posted by JackFlash at 1:48 PM on December 23, 2018 [62 favorites]

In a precautionary move, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spent Sunday on the phone speaking with the chief executives of some of the country's largest banks to avoid yet another market whiplash when Wall Street opens Monday

There's a great moment in the Frontline special about the 2008 crash Inside the Meltdown where they talk about the CEO of Bear Stearns going on TV to tamp down rumors of Bear's troubles and how the denials ultimately legitimized every suspicion about Bear's problems and helped set off the coming avalanche.

Whether or not Mnuchin gets the banks to play along and pretend there isn't a problem in the short term, a move like this sure does confirm there's fire feeding all this smoke.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:57 PM on December 23, 2018 [22 favorites]

Rand Paul's crappy Christmas roast. Is this real life?
posted by MonkeyToes at 2:04 PM on December 23, 2018 [5 favorites]

Whatever we choose to call it, whether we openly acknowledge it at all, my fear is that we will choose certainty, strength and predictability over this constant dysfunction, even if it comes at the price of our democracy (the press; the ballot box; the courts; congress and representative government).

And about 40% of the country already will choose an authoritarian regime, as long as it protects them from brown or trans people.

We know that no matter what the president does the GoP will support him, and Fox News will spin it in his favor. Just as long as they get another Supreme Court justice who will render null Brown vs Board of Education.

We kept worrying about the accellerationists on the Left, but we really should have been worrying on the ones on the right. No amount of chaos or damage will be too much if it gets them the return to the early 19th century they want.
posted by happyroach at 2:25 PM on December 23, 2018 [8 favorites]

Can't believe Rand's still piling up branches and shit -- how did that neighbor's ass-kicking not break him of the habit?
posted by Iris Gambol at 2:25 PM on December 23, 2018 [9 favorites]

So on Jan 2nd, there'll be acting Defense, AG, Interior, EPA, and an acting WH chief of staff who hands off responsibility at OMB to a deputy.

Does anyone know whether acting Cabinet secretaries have Article 25 votes? I wonder if Trump might be actively trying to pre-empt removal by removing potential votes and preventing a quorum. Republicans have done this for years with NLRB and UN bodies.
posted by msalt at 2:43 PM on December 23, 2018 [5 favorites]

Sec. Mnuchin put out a statement about his call with the banks. It contains not-actually-reassuring phrases like "they have ample liquidity" and "the markets continue to function properly."

@BCAppelbaum: Let's say you were trying to start a financial crisis. A good strategy would be to threaten to fire the Fed chair and then announce that banks aren't worried about liquidity. NO PROBLEMS HERE. PLENTY OF MONEY IN THE VAULTS.

@NateSilver538: Could saying there's no need to panic when no one is panicking induce a panic?
posted by zachlipton at 2:47 PM on December 23, 2018 [44 favorites]

@KaiRyssdal (Marketplace):

Also, who said anything about liquidity issues (spoiler alert - nobody)
Also also, the banks aren’t the issue here.
Also also also, I can’t even with this.
I feel like I need to say this out loud, because - amazeballs as this is - the Treasury Secretary is, it seems, consciously saying things that will destabilize the markets.
There is no liquidity crisis.
There is no market crisis.
There is no crisis except for the fact that his boss, the President of the United States, is talking actively about firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
*That would be a crisis.

posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:51 PM on December 23, 2018 [52 favorites]

@NateSilver538: Could saying there's no need to panic when no one is panicking induce a panic?

“We just wanted everyone to know that we have not misplaced any nuclear weapons in the last two weeks. Happy holidays.”
posted by Justinian at 2:55 PM on December 23, 2018 [41 favorites]

Mystery company involved in Mueller investigation appeals to Supreme Court

Update: Chief Justice Roberts has granted a stay on the contempt order, pending a response due December 31st and further proceedings. They could decide to lift the stay following a response from DOJ.
posted by zachlipton at 3:38 PM on December 23, 2018 [7 favorites]

This edifice of extraordinary powers has historically rested on the assumption that the president will act in the country’s best interest when using them

This presupposes he isn't so stupid he understands literally nothing about any of this.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 3:54 PM on December 23, 2018 [3 favorites]

"The market volatility is not changing the strong fundamentals of the economy," said the person. "Systems remain normal."

Which is why when I look at my retirement portfolio I see a negative sign and a big number in red for my 2018 year-to-date. I'm glad I am not planning on retiring anytime soon.
posted by srboisvert at 3:54 PM on December 23, 2018 [10 favorites]

From what I gather the stay Roberts granted is an administrative stay, which just means they need time to look at the case before deciding whether to grant an actual stay on the merits. Given the apparent important and sensitive nature (foreign implications etc) of the case I don't think it's too weird that Roberts granted it. But I'm sure Legal Twitter will weigh in soon enough.
posted by Justinian at 3:59 PM on December 23, 2018 [3 favorites]

Does anyone know whether acting Cabinet secretaries have Article 25 votes? I wonder if Trump might be actively trying to pre-empt removal by removing potential votes and preventing a quorum. Republicans have done this for years with NLRB and UN bodies.

1) trump does not understand the mechanics of the 25th amendment well enough to plan this
2) trump does not make long-term plans
3) he fired those people because they were not deferential to him, no more, no less
4) they're still held by acting secretaries because trump has run out of suckers to fill posts

tl;dr - with trump, it's always the most obvious and dumbest reason you can think of
posted by murphy slaw at 4:02 PM on December 23, 2018 [21 favorites]

[Haberman] can offer inside information that her colleagues at other papers can't, but to maintain that access for the NYT, she has to curb negative coverage so that it won't anger her sources too much.

She only has one inside source that others don't -- Trump himself, and he is completely full of shit even when discussing his own motivations.

She might tell herself that she's doing good by getting the inside scoop but she's just spreading Trump's propaganda so she can make bank on it later.
posted by benzenedream at 4:23 PM on December 23, 2018 [26 favorites]

So in attempting to prevent s bank run ...on Christmas, we are now living though a particularly grim and stupid version of It’s A Wonderful Life?
posted by The Whelk at 7:11 PM on December 23, 2018 [37 favorites]

For folks thinking the person carrying the football is Deep State, let's look all the way back to early 2017 when Trump Mar-a-Lago guests snaps photo with 'nuclear football,' posts image on Facebook
posted by armacy at 7:24 PM on December 23, 2018 [6 favorites]

Rand Paul's crappy Christmas roast. Is this real life?

He does this every year. Then goes back to voting Trump 99% of the time.

You can see why anyone that knows him in real life wants to beat the shit out of him.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:53 PM on December 23, 2018 [28 favorites]

WSJ, Trump Administration Warns Shutdown Could Last Into January

“It’s just so depressing,” said Audrey Murray, 59 years old, who works as a cleaner at the Smithsonian Institution in the morning and at the State Department in the evening. Both are contract jobs, which put her at a greater risk of not getting back pay. “My mortgage is due on the first.…Nobody should be going through this.”

It's the time of year when workers are most likely to be stretched financially, many laid-off contractors will never see a dime in back pay, and they're the ones directly paying for this fight over the border wall.
posted by zachlipton at 7:59 PM on December 23, 2018 [44 favorites]

"The market volatility is not changing the strong fundamentals of the economy”

John McCain, September 15, 2008, as the markets were flailing: “The fundamentals of our economy are strong.” Within hours of that statement, Lehman went kaboom and the avalanche started.
posted by azpenguin at 8:25 PM on December 23, 2018 [18 favorites]

To follow up on the bombshell article about how Russian agents sought secret US Treasury records in Clinton allies during the 2016 campaign, Buzzfeed's Jason Leopold has posted a thread detailing their research through FOIA requests, including screenshots of the heavily redacted docs about complaints of Russian attempts to penetrate FinCEN and Treasury retaliation against multiple whistleblowers:

What we discovered was unreal. At least 10 whistleblowers from FinCEN filed complaints or declared whistleblower status after sounding the alarm about allegations of domestic spying, insider threats, retaliation and the fact that Russia wanted financial docs on Kremlin enemies

The docs present a dire bureaucratic situation that affects US security—and Steven Mnuchin and his cronies are running this show.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:54 PM on December 23, 2018 [49 favorites]

Previously: Where Trump Learned to Love Ritualized Flattery (David Margolick, New Yorker)

Now: New Trump Ad Begs You to Call Him and Say 'Thank You, President Trump!' (River Donaghey, Vice)

Or you could, you know, leave him a different kind of message.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:21 PM on December 23, 2018 [7 favorites]

Well, that's good. NORADs Santa Tracker is still in operation despite the shutdown.

Because who knows what that border-crossing commie bastard will get up to this year?
posted by loquacious at 9:36 PM on December 23, 2018 [9 favorites]

Do your research on that number before calling the number Vice reported on. It’s been up for a while and it may be just collecting phone numbers for purposes to be named later.
posted by _Mona_ at 9:44 PM on December 23, 2018 [18 favorites]

Johnny Wallflower: A recession is coming. Trump will make it so much worse. (Catherine Rampell, WaPo)

Robert Reich (Wiki) Facebook video post from yesterday is relevant -- text copied below:

A year ago Trump signed into law a massive $1.5 trillion tax cut for the wealthy and corporations. So after a full year, what are the results?

1) Trump and Republicans promised the tax cuts would pay for themselves. Wrong. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the tax cuts have added to deficit, which is now on track to surpass $1 trillion by 2020.

2) They claimed the tax cuts would create jobs. Wrong. The 1,000 biggest companies have actually cut more jobs than they've created, according to a new survey. Since the tax cuts were passed, they've cut nearly 140,000 jobs.

3) They claimed the tax cuts would boost the stock market. Wrong. Although the stock market surged in the early part of the 2018 with corporations plowing most of their tax savings into buying back their own shares of stock, since then the gains have been completely wiped out.

4) They claimed the tax cuts would boost wages for American workers. Wrong again. Since the tax law was signed, wages haven't kept up with inflation, meaning that most workers are actually making less than before. Meanwhile, executives are taking home record bonuses.

5) Trump promised most of the gains would go to middle class families. Wrong. By 2027, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the richest 1 percent will have received 83 percent of the tax cut and the richest 0.1 percent, 60 percent of it. But more than half of all Americans — 53 percent — will pay more in taxes.

So there you have it, folks. Once again, trickle-down economics has proven to be nothing more than cruel hoax designed to enrich the wealthy and shaft everyone else.

We don't have to wait for a full-blown recession for Trump to make things worse than when he got into office, we're already there ... unless you were already wealthy, and then you're probably still doing just fine.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:45 PM on December 23, 2018 [83 favorites]

NYMAG: GOP Leaders Won’t Tolerate Trump’s Chaos for Much Longer

If that headline is correct I will bake a rich chocolate cake layered with cherry preserves, pipe those words onto its bitter chocolate glaze, and eat them with kirschwasser-infused cream.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:20 PM on December 23, 2018 [60 favorites]

wow, betteridge's law still works even without the question mark
posted by ryanrs at 10:28 PM on December 23, 2018 [16 favorites]

Eh, I have to believe the poor attache hauling around the briefcase for Trump has ears and would be willing to tell the man baby no if there were no current threat of WMDs being used against the US or it's allies.

I'm quite sure every person who's authorized to be armed in the vicinity of the president has thought hard about what they would do in this scenario.
posted by ctmf at 10:28 PM on December 23, 2018 [2 favorites]

Craig Unger interview : There is a Russian asset in the White House
posted by growabrain at 10:33 PM on December 23, 2018 [9 favorites]

I still don't understand.

All of our intelligence agencies, and the intelligence agencies of our allies, unanimously knew that Donald Trump was a likely asset of the Russian government. A cursory glance at the obvious records available to the U.S. government easily shows that his entire financial and political empire was the product of Russian oligarchy.

Yet they let him waltz into the Presidency.

And they continue to perpetuate this air of legitimacy to the whole charade.

What does it take for these people to do their duty to this country?

I'm just a nobody who fucks up everything I attempt to do, but I cannot for the life of me understand what the fuck happened here.
posted by yesster at 10:52 PM on December 23, 2018 [84 favorites]

I cannot for the life of me understand what the fuck happened here.

They wanted a tax cut. They wanted women to become chattel. They wanted the brown people kept out, or killed, or just to have so many people focused on hating the brown people that they could steal half the country's wealth. They wanted the right to be whiny, petulant jerks, and punish anyone who annoyed them.

They could see the future, and it has many colors and genders and people are judged not by what they own or how many awards they've won, but by the content of their character. They knew exactly how well they'd do in that kind of culture, so they made a deal with each other: I won't tell if you don't; let's promote the guy who will fight to his last breath to prevent that future, and he'll be so clueless about it that nobody will accuse him of deliberate sabotage. Tell him it'll make him rich and powerful and secure his fame forever and he'll drag a hundred grifters on his coattails.

And anyone who didn't buy into that plan, got told: there are systems here. There are protocols. You can't just ignore the norms we've so carefully built. If this is what the people want, this is what they get. Plz ignore all the ways we're hiding what we actually know, that might actually change what the people want. Besides, it won't be that bad; how much harm can one guy do? We have checks and balances, you know.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:04 PM on December 23, 2018 [102 favorites]

But as long as the axis of adults remained in place, he was constrained. So he began to force them out. If there is a common theme behind the reshuffle, it is that Trump replaces independent thinkers with sycophantic loyalists or those too weak to stand up to him.

Ironically, that's the one thing I don't think is crazy, although that's not the way I'd put it. If my staff was actively working against me, I'd replace them too.

Granted, I'm not an impulsive, no-information, no-competence buffoon (at least I don't think so) and I listen to what my people tell me, following recommendations most of the time if they're aligned with the clear goals and objectives I've previously communicated. So it's not quite the same thing.
posted by ctmf at 11:21 PM on December 23, 2018 [4 favorites]

>>Does anyone know whether acting Cabinet secretaries have Article 25 votes? I wonder if Trump might be actively trying to pre-empt removal by removing potential votes and preventing a quorum.
>trump does not understand the mechanics of the 25th amendment well enough to plan this

Be that as it may, it doesn't answer the question which is very important right now with several acting cabinet secretaries. This could literally mean the difference between Trump being removed or not.

Since succession has never gone beyond the Vice President, the question has obviously not been tested. The text of the 25th amendment, section 4 specifies that "a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide" for the president's removal.

Any legal types know what "principal officer" means in this context? It's also interesting that Congress could vote for any group to make the decision, whether it's the Akron Ladies Garden Club or Mefites, though they haven't yet. But presumably only a majority vote would be required.
posted by msalt at 1:12 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

Now: New Trump Ad Begs You to Call Him and Say 'Thank You, President Trump!' (River Donaghey, Vice)

Counterpoint: To Obama With Love, Joy, Hate and Despair by Jeanne Marie Laskas

Obama set up a system to read and digitize his mail from the public. It was a big job. “Team Little People” would go through them all and give Obama the top ten every day, which he would reply to.

This author has written a book about these letters and is promoting it on the radio here. She said in an interview that during the transition, the team handed over all the details of the system so it could be continued and the new admin took no interest. It seems to be shitcanned now.

I know Trump doesn't read, I don't really care about that. That is what it is. But Obama has done a service to history by collecting all these letters and digitizing them. What a trove! And that's not happening anymore.

As for Trump's phone line, it's a scam to collect electioneering data. Best just send your deets to the GRU directly.
posted by adept256 at 1:32 AM on December 24, 2018 [28 favorites]

> A cursory glance at the obvious records available to the U.S. government easily shows that his entire financial and political empire was the product of Russian oligarchy. ... Yet they let him waltz into the Presidency.

You're not wrong. To my feeble mind, it seems that a discourse in which "America" and "Russia" are the main players is not the right discourse. We haven't been good at constructing alternative ones though. Making either "the Deep State" or "the Oligarchs" the principal actors is, in each case, woefully underspecified.

In the absence of transparency, hearings, investigations, and repeated public recitation of important, undeniable, facts, it rather feels like we are constructing fairy stories in the vain attempt to make the very real adverse effects of pathological actors intelligible, but fairy stories don't work against viruses or radioactivity, or whatever the best characterisation of the bad actors is.
posted by stonepharisee at 1:45 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

It's day two of the shutdown and the White House is already backing down.

The partial government shutdown could go on for potentially many more days – and perhaps weeks – but the White House indicated Sunday that it was backing down on its main sticking point: It was requesting less than $5 billion for border wall funding

That's an on the record take from Mick Mulvaney. Could someone please explain this sophisticated negotiating tactic to me? I understand that just because Trump or his minions say something it doesn't mean they'll follow through with it but I still don't understand the strategy.
posted by rdr at 3:55 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

What makes you think there's a strategy?
posted by escape from the potato planet at 4:26 AM on December 24, 2018 [11 favorites]

Perhaps the "strategy" is a nearby adult is terrified that the shutdown could be the final straw that breaks the back of the financial markets. See also Stephen Mnuchin.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 4:32 AM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

> GOP Leaders Won’t Tolerate Trump’s Chaos for Much Longer

I prediect that GOP leaders will stop tolerating Trump's chaos (to steal a phrase my sister used with her young kids) after later.
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:36 AM on December 24, 2018 [27 favorites]

Perhaps the "strategy" is a nearby adult is terrified that the shutdown could be the final straw that breaks the back of the financial markets. See also Stephen Mnuchin.

If there are "nearby adults", they're all terrified of not hanging onto the tiger and getting eaten.

Narrator: The fall off the tiger and get eaten.
posted by mikelieman at 4:37 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

Not to abuse the edit window. Trump's M.O. is "fuck them and declare bankruptcy". Everyone knew this going in.

And here we are, where "Fuck Them" is every employee and contractor to the federal government, and "bankruptcy" is the wholesale destruction of the financial markets.
posted by mikelieman at 4:40 AM on December 24, 2018 [17 favorites]

Just so I've got this right - the new Congress will be able to end the shutdown because it can pass the bill and override the Cheeto veto?
posted by Devonian at 5:49 AM on December 24, 2018

Could someone please explain this sophisticated negotiating tactic to me?

The shutdown is unpopular, he's getting blamed for this, people are yelling at him. His ego and insecurity can't handle this, he wants it to go away, he's caving in the same way we've seen before, whatever the result he'll salvage his ego by spewing some bullshit about how it's all great because he's a master negotiator. He's bored and frustrated and wants to be down in Florida playing golf and getting his ego stroked by sycophants.

Hell, the only reason we're in a shutdown in the first place is because a certain segment of the right-wing media sphere yelled at him about "caving" to the Democrats and failing to back up his campaign promises about the wall because he was willing to sign the bill with much lower funding. So to make the yelling go away he last second decided to "get tough." Now even more people are yelling at him even louder.

I mean, armchair psychologist and all that, but it's an established pattern where loud and strenuous objections to his plans and policies often results in him changing tack while still claiming optimal results.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:00 AM on December 24, 2018 [17 favorites]

If there are "nearby adults", they're all terrified of not hanging onto the tiger and getting eaten.

That was Thomas Jefferson's explanation for why he didn't act on his convictions and use his positions to hasten the end of slavery. So if we really are waiting for the cowards to let go of the tiger, then we better prepare for a civil war.
posted by ocschwar at 6:03 AM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

Bloomberg' Jennifer Jacobs n the perspective of Trumpland: Trump Sees Winning Hand as Critics See Presidency Spiraling Down

[A]dvisers said Trump feels emboldened, not chastened, by the midterm elections -- despite the net loss of 40 House seats, his party’s worst in the chamber since Watergate in the 1970s. His aides have spun that as a win since it fell short of the 63 seats Democrats lost in 2010, and they have emphasized Republican pick-ups in the Senate in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.

As a result, Trump feels vindicated in his political instincts and is increasingly unmoved by advisers, they said.

In contrast, he’s now ready for a reset and a shake-up of his Cabinet to surround himself with advisers more aligned to his political outlook, and he’s coming to the view he should have done so from the start of his administration.

Whether they believe this happy-talk or not, the Trump White House is going to double down on Trumpiness next year.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:24 AM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

[A]dvisers said Trump feels emboldened, not chastened, by the midterm elections --

When you wonder "just how does someone go bankrupt running casinos?"

This is how.
posted by butterstick at 6:39 AM on December 24, 2018 [87 favorites]

Doubling down on Trumpism could be a long-game defensive strategy, Jacobs points out: "In one way, Trump is right. Activist Republican voters, who can punish GOP lawmakers not viewed as sufficiently loyal to Trump, are also his surest line of defense as Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation moves closer. Should the incoming Democratic-controlled House impeach Trump -- a threat many around Trump consider very real -- he could survive and remain in office as long as at least 34 Republican senators stick with him. Democrat Bill Clinton survived the last impeachment in just this way."
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:49 AM on December 24, 2018 [3 favorites]

SP 500 is down 1.45% in the first 20 minutes of trading.

So much winning.
posted by ocschwar at 6:51 AM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

Because who knows what that border-crossing commie bastard will get up to this year?
posted by loquacious at 9:36 PM on December 23 [7 favorites +] [!]

Remember when keeping an eye on Putin's nefarious deeds was a thing with the GOP?
posted by Mental Wimp at 6:58 AM on December 24, 2018 [3 favorites]

It's also interesting that Congress could vote for any group to make the decision, whether it's the Akron Ladies Garden Club or Mefites, though they haven't yet.

UNLEASH THE MEFI CABAL. there is no cabal

Just so I've got this right - the new Congress will be able to end the shutdown because it can pass the bill and override the Cheeto veto?

Remains to be seen. The ~~Commons~~ House of Representatives would be able to pass a supply bill to keep the government funded since it will no longer be controlled by incompetent fascists, and the bill could probably pass the ~~House of Lords~~ Senate as well but whether it gets signed will just depend on what our dictator last heard on the teevee. Otherwise it goes back to both houses of Congress for a supermajority override, which... the moderate ~~Tories~~ Republicans will save us from the stupidest own-goal in many decades, maybe.

[narrator: "surely this, merry/happy Christmas everyone!"]

The parallels between the political situation in the US and the UK are increasingly evident and horrible.
posted by tivalasvegas at 7:30 AM on December 24, 2018 [16 favorites]

They're not parallels, they're angles of the same story. With one common factor outstanding. I'd recommend invading Russia, except it's winter and we'd have trouble persuading the French and the Germans to come along for the ride.
posted by Devonian at 7:57 AM on December 24, 2018 [14 favorites]

Just so I've got this right - the new Congress will be able to end the shutdown because it can pass the bill and override the Cheeto veto?

Unfortunately, I’m pretty sure it’s not that simple. A “Congress” as defined in the Constitution lasts two years, so this Congress ends on Jan 3rd and a new one is seated. Technically, all unsigned/unresolved/pending legislation of a Congress expires when its term ends. There might be some kind of loophole that allows a rare bill to carry over that I am unaware of (and I can’t find anything suggesting that such a loophole exists), but the usual workaround for unfinished business is that the new Congress introduces what are technically new bills covering the old unresolved business. So the whole process will have to “start over” under a new Congress - and the new Congress will have a Democratic-majority House of Representatives, and the House is the chamber that has the exclusive right to originate revenue bills.

Overriding a veto requires a 2/3 supermajority vote in both chambers of Congress (which would be 67 of the 100 Senators, and 290 of the 435-member House of Representatives.) Makeup of the new (116th) Congress will be: Senate - 53 R, 45 D, 2 Independents (who caucus (vote with) the Democrats); House - 235 D, 199 R, 1 currently disputed/unresolved. So neither chamber of Congress will have a clear single-party number of votes to override a veto. A veto-proof bill would require some Democratic Senators and some Republican House Representatives to agree to the terms of the bill.

So there’s no simple way to end the shutdown under the old or the new Congress without some agreement to compromise and/or change tactic (even some hard-liner conservatives in Congress would rather fight over the wall as part of a package of immigration reform, rather than as part of a budget fight.) What there is is political pressure from donors, constituents, and the media. The longer this goes on, the worse they look and the madder everybody gets - and this shutdown is very clearly Trump’s fault, no matter how Fox News or Breitbart try to spin it. Congressional Republicans were clearly hoping to stall the big fight over the wall until the new Congress (by passing the budget bill with 1.6 or 1.3 (I’ve lost track of which) billion), when they could go whole hog in blaming the Democratic House. Trump fucked that up by insisting he’d veto the bill without $5 billion for the wall, so here we are.

The TL;DR is that it's highly unlikely the new Congress will be able to easily create a new veto-proof bill and end the shutdown. The current Congress has (technically) until Jan 3rd to pass something. Probably the best hope right now is to pressure Trump to sign whatever they put in front of him. How he is convinced to do that remains to be seen.
posted by soundguy99 at 8:02 AM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

Perhaps Schumer and Pelosi would be better off negotiating with the actual decision makers instead of their flunky Trump, by whom I mean Doocey and Coulter.
posted by M-x shell at 8:05 AM on December 24, 2018 [6 favorites]

Nancy Pelosi doesn't have to care about creating a veto proof bill. If her bill comes out of the house, passes the senate, and Trump vetoes it it will be a pretty big political win for her. There's no way the democrats get blamed because the senate is controlled by republicans. In order to avoid the senate passing the bill Trump will have to apply pressure on republican senators. I'm not sure that Trump has the muscle to convince senators to vote against reopening the government because; the wall is unpopular and Trump has been a complete flake and can't negotiate with anyone in good faith. Why would a republican senator back him on an unpopular bill when he's likely to reverse his policy the next day via tweet?
posted by rdr at 8:10 AM on December 24, 2018 [9 favorites]

The wall is popular with Republican voters, and Trump is historically popular with Republican voters. Senate Republicans are not going to defy him on this.
posted by dirigibleman at 8:17 AM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

Just so I've got this right - the new Congress will be able to end the shutdown because it can pass the bill and override the Cheeto veto?

It is unlikely that the votes are there for a veto proof CR (or budget extension, if you will). However, the narrative will be that Rs generally and Trump specifically have shut down the gov. I think Fox would even have a hard time spinning it.

1. R controlled senate unanimously passed CR and sent to R controlled House of Reps.
2. R controlled House of Reps sent back bill saying "add 3+ billion for wall".
3. D controlled House of Reps will be seated on 01/03. First order of business is sending back, word for word, typos included and all funky formatting you can think of THE EXACT SAME BILL R controlled Senate sent to them in step 1.
4. Government shutdown then becomes completely owned by R Senate if they don't vote for the same bill they already sent or Senate votes yea and Trump has to veto. Either way the shutdown is on the Republicans. It also doesn't help that Trump said he would own the shutdown just a couple of weeks ago.

Those who are more tuned in, please correct me if I am wrong.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 8:21 AM on December 24, 2018 [15 favorites]

Pelosi can copy-paste the wording of the Senate bill into a House bill, get it passed, and then say "hey, Mitch, you passed this on a voice vote."

How he is convinced to do that remains to be seen.

Set up another TV with a real-time slideshow of Instagram photos tagged at Mar-a-Lago.
posted by holgate at 8:24 AM on December 24, 2018 [8 favorites]

Somewhere in Douglas Coupland's Generation X, a terrible shithead explains to his sometimes-girlfriend that he does the awful things he does because he craves the rush--he wants to feel dangerously callous and angry, needs the stimulation of feeling like he's being ice-picked on the head by a herd of angry cheerleaders, angry cheerleaders on drugs, so he can act out. That said, I give you The Year of the Old Boys, from Lili Loofbourow and Slate:

"If you notice Old Boys getting more abusive, or flailing more desperately, this is why: The philosophical endpoint of a junkie’s increasing resistance is panic that satisfaction will never come. All the money and power in the world won’t get the Old Boy what he wants because what he wants isn’t a thing but the dopamine rush of victory (and nothing wears off more quickly). What he wants isn’t anything in particular; it’s just more."

Childish masculinity is the nature of institutions at the moment, and they will not save us.
posted by MonkeyToes at 8:24 AM on December 24, 2018 [42 favorites]

Democrats vow new scrub of post-9/11 war powers -- The House changeover is giving new life to calls by some lawmakers to reexamine the sweeping authority that Congress granted the president 17 years ago.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:30 AM on December 24, 2018 [60 favorites]

Schiff: Democrats will subpoena Mueller report if Trump tries to hide it
posted by Chrysostom at 8:31 AM on December 24, 2018 [46 favorites]

Pelosi can copy-paste the wording of the Senate bill into a House bill, get it passed, and then say "hey, Mitch, you passed this on a voice vote."

Perhaps, but that bill only funds government until February 8, when they would have to start the same fight all over again. I doubt they will waste their first week on a funding bill for just four weeks.
posted by JackFlash at 8:34 AM on December 24, 2018

dirigibleman: "The wall is popular with Republican voters, and Trump is historically popular with Republican voters. Senate Republicans are not going to defy him on this."

They already did once.
posted by Mitheral at 8:35 AM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

But that was when they thought he was going to sign it. Punting the fight to February with the consent of everybody involved is very different from openly opposing a president of your own party, and there's no more open opposition to a president than overriding his veto. Except impeaching him.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:37 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

Fox News uses award shows to reinforce the idea that pop culture exists to marginalize conservatives (Parker Malloy, Media Matters)

The day after award shows is the most predictable day on the network.
...
Whether it’s Time or any other magazine’s Person of the Year choices, the Oscars, the Grammys, the Emmys, or Golden Globes, Fox News follows a brilliant formula designed to reinforce the idea that pop culture exists largely for the purpose of marginalizing conservatives.
...
Fox News uses manufactured outrage as a tool, and it's become so useful that some of its viewers have tuned out pop culture as a whole.

Can a piece of art change the world? Maybe. Can a speech delivered from the Oscars stage heal a country? I suppose it’s possible, even if extremely unlikely. Yet, if you’re someone with a vested interest in preventing forward social change or you rely on resentment of “elites” to fuel your own political agenda, it would be beneficial to sow distrust of the people making that art or giving that speech. If you can convince your target audience that the artists can’t ever truly understand America, that they’re all rich elitists -- though many are less “rich” and arguably less “elite” than the people delivering messages on your side of this culture war -- you can use even the most anodyne cultural events to your advantage.

posted by ZeusHumms at 8:41 AM on December 24, 2018 [9 favorites]

The Atlantic: What Was Steve Mnuchin Thinking? Three Possibilities

Option one: The Treasury secretary was speaking to an audience of one.
Option two: The Treasury secretary believes that the market correction is due in part to animal spirits—animal spirits he could quiet by reminding everyone that the financial system is in fine shape.
Option three: Mnuchin has some troubling insider knowledge, and wanted to broadcast to the markets that he is aware and in charge.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:55 AM on December 24, 2018 [6 favorites]

Option four: He, like his boss, really likes the idea of a market crash to keep the population scared and/or because he thinks that he personally will make a lot of money in a crash.
posted by Etrigan at 9:07 AM on December 24, 2018 [10 favorites]

@PreetBharara
If the wall can be built while Mnuchin is still in Mexico, I could be persuaded
8:07 PM - 23 Dec 2018
3,650 Retweets 28,304 Likes
posted by pjsky at 9:08 AM on December 24, 2018 [38 favorites]

Option five: he's just an idiot.
posted by ragtag at 9:18 AM on December 24, 2018 [16 favorites]

The main thing limiting my concern about nuclear snow this Christmas is that the codes are generated daily, mixed with fake ones, and "the president must memorize where on the list the correct code is located."
posted by lucidium at 9:18 AM on December 24, 2018 [47 favorites]

Mental Wimp: Remember when keeping an eye on Putin's nefarious deeds was a thing with the GOP?

I was recently reminiscing about Saint Ronnie, he who told the Soviets "Tear down this wall!", compared to Donnie dummkopf who has Republicans proudly wearing shirts touting "I’d Rather Be a Russian Than a Democrat".

Of course, that wall was separating East and West Berlin, not Mexico and the United States, but hearing people get concerned that the wall/ pretty metal slats will destroy a butterfly sanctuary they cherish (WaPo, Dec. 17, 2018) and having the cojones to say "The Republican party is abandoning the conservative principles I treasured," I laughed bitterly.

But when news comes that Trump's plan for a barrier will physically divide a town in Texas (L.A. Times, Dec. 18, 2018), I thought that this is just too on the nose for 2018.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:35 AM on December 24, 2018 [7 favorites]

Steve Mnuchin was on the board of Relativity Media which had a very colorful ownership and .... More than one rumor attached it it viz a ve finances.

This isn't subtle stock trickery this is burn the bar for the insurence money.
posted by The Whelk at 9:38 AM on December 24, 2018 [9 favorites]

i... .. i...

Trump Tweet.

I am all alone (poor me) in the White House waiting for the Democrats to come back and make a deal on desperately needed Border Security. At some point the Democrats not wanting to make a deal will cost our Country more money than the Border Wall we are all talking about. Crazy!

He is not a well man.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:41 AM on December 24, 2018 [44 favorites]

Adam Schiff throws some shade
posted by growabrain at 9:47 AM on December 24, 2018 [8 favorites]

"I am all alone (poor me) in the White House..." Way to make Christmas Eve about you, Donnie.

And another soft touch on the stock market:

Dow plunges after Steven Mnuchin fails to calm markets (Rich Barbieri and Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN Business, December 24, 2018)

Stocks had recovered late morning, but then fell to their lowest level for the day after President Donald Trump tweeted mid-morning, "The only problem our economy has is the Fed." Investors are concerned that Trump may fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The only problem our economy has is the Fed. They don't have a feel for the Market, they don't understand necessary Trade Wars or Strong Dollars or even Democrat Shutdowns over Borders. The Fed is like a powerful golfer who can't score because he has no touch - he can't putt!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 24, 2018
The Dow, which crossed 22,000 on the way up for the first time in September 2017, dropped more than 500 points in late morning trading. The S&P 500 fell 2.2% and the Nasdaq was off 1.7%.

Mnuchin on Sunday released an unusual statement to say he had called the CEOs of the country's biggest banks. He said the executives assured him their banks are healthy and have "ample liquidity" to lend to consumers and businesses. "Markets continue to function properly," he said.

The major bank CEOs who spoke by phone with Mnuchin were "totally baffled" by the session, according to a person familiar with the call, who said the executives found the encounter puzzling and largely unnecessary.

Nothing says "approachable everyman" like a golf metaphor. Enjoy practicing your putts in the empty White House hallways.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:49 AM on December 24, 2018 [17 favorites]

"I’d Rather Be a Russian Than a Democrat"

I'd rather be an American than a Republican.

Jesus, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. I almost feel sorry for them. Almost.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:52 AM on December 24, 2018 [38 favorites]

the codes are generated daily, mixed with fake ones, and "the president must memorize where on the list the correct code is located."

I'm being completely serious: nothing has made me feel safer than this in the last two years.

Thank you.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:54 AM on December 24, 2018 [127 favorites]

> I am all alone (poor me) in the White House

His kids? His grandkids? His wife? All gone? Not that I'd blame them.
posted by The corpse in the library at 9:58 AM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

So, let's get this straight. The Republicans passed a 1.5 trillion dollar tax cut which businesses used to buy back their stock the value of which is now less than before the tax cut. Other than those who cashed out (not the businesses) did anyone profit form this?
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:59 AM on December 24, 2018 [13 favorites]

Ben White, @morningmoneyben: Markets tank as Mnuchin appears to panic. Then they begin to recover ... until Trump Fed bashing tweet hits the tape. Then down we go again. [Ticker graphic included]
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:00 AM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

"the president must memorize where on the list the correct code is located."

I had not realized this; I am now substantially less concerned.

"I am all alone (poor me) in the White House..."

Dude, you have a wife, five children (one under the age of 13), some grandkids, heaps of money and status of the type that draw entertaining people who hope to get in on the wealth, and an entire career of claiming "everyone likes me." If you're more alone on Christmas than my heavy-introvert multiple-disabled-people family, you're doing something very wrong.

they don't understand necessary Trade Wars

But Donny, I thought we weren't in a trade war.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:02 AM on December 24, 2018 [18 favorites]

Red T Raccoon on Twitter: ”Let's see what John McCain thinks of the new Acting Secretary of Defense, Patrick Shanahan.”
posted by young_simba at 10:03 AM on December 24, 2018 [3 favorites]

Option four: He, like his boss, really likes the idea of a market crash to keep the population scared and/or because he thinks that he personally will make a lot of money in a crash.

So either Mnuchin is short selling America, or maybe he's the subject of a Trading Places style revenge scam/bet?
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:12 AM on December 24, 2018

I am all alone (poor me) in the White House

He actually put in "poor me". Anyway, this is the perfect setup for a Scrooge style homage.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:13 AM on December 24, 2018 [10 favorites]

"the president must memorize where on the list the correct code is located."

I had not realized this; I am now substantially less concerned.

Someday in the future we will learn that "covfefe" was a nuclear launch code.
posted by srboisvert at 10:14 AM on December 24, 2018 [75 favorites]

> I am all alone (poor me) in the White House

His kids? His grandkids? His wife? All gone? Not that I'd blame them.

His family is already at Mar-a-Lago. Until late Friday it was expected that he'd be there too.
posted by Daily Alice at 10:24 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

Desperately trying to blame the Fed for the market downturn in the same breath that he admits he started trade wars?

Desperately trying to blame for the government shutdown on the Dems, after he already accepted responsibility for it on national news?

The flop sweat is audible in his tweets.
posted by darkstar at 10:24 AM on December 24, 2018 [26 favorites]

As I festively noted at family dinner last night, the only consolation I have in these dark times is that Trump is absolutely fucking miserable. I mean, I know he doesn't have normal human emotions, so his misery is different from normal misery, but it's enough for me to make it to the next day.
posted by soren_lorensen at 10:32 AM on December 24, 2018 [48 favorites]

So he... chose to shut down the government, in a temper tantrum. He chose to stay at the White House, -knowing- Congress was not going to be there to get his shutdown handled over the holiday. He chose everything about this...

... and how he wants us to feel sorry for him? Trump man, you aren't a martyr here. You're an asshole. There's a big difference, usually.
posted by Archelaus at 10:38 AM on December 24, 2018 [38 favorites]

I also find mild gratification in the fact that at least the zombie-eyed granny-starver, policy wank, and Ayn Rand acolyte Paul Ryan will retire from public office while the government is literally shut down.

Forever recorded for all of history as the capstone to Paul Ryan’s legislative career is that his incompetent leadership and moral cowardice as Speaker of the House left it in such a state that it literally could not function until he left and was replaced by Nancy Pelosi.
posted by darkstar at 10:44 AM on December 24, 2018 [44 favorites]

Yeah, but Ryan and his ilk would consider that an accomplishment, not a failure.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:47 AM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

I’m pretty sure they’re just idiots and that’s what’s going to (finally) price in the fact that Trump is president.

OTOH, they fuck up the economy too bad and maybe we’ll get impeachment. Because if anything can do it, it will be that.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:48 AM on December 24, 2018 [3 favorites]

From ATC twitter, an hour ago:

EXEC1F - Climbing out from Palm Beach, Florida

Melania Trump heading back to DC for Christmas...

🇺🇸 US Air Force
C-37B 09-0525

Whether this will ease poor 45's loneliness, I cannot say...
posted by Devonian at 11:16 AM on December 24, 2018 [6 favorites]

> "a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide" for the president's removal.

Any legal types know what "principal officer" means in this context?

Gee, you'd think such an important term would be defined in the constitution, but arg! nope! For example: [emphasis added]

The Constitution and legal precedent define a “principal officer” as anyone who reports directly to the president. All other appointed personnel are considered “inferior officers.” In an opinion issued by Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel under President George W. Bush, anyone serving in an acting capacity—even if it is in a role typically considered a “principal” position—is automatically an inferior officer.

Justice's memo on officers in general [PDF] that touches a bit on principal officers runs to 122 pages. Wikipedia's claim that it's the 15 cabinet members has 3 citations, but one just defines the cabinet & one refers to another, so the only opinion is from Reagan's A.G.'s 1985 memo [PDF].

It seems pretty safe to assume that a majority of the 15 that had been confirmed by the Senate would be accepted by most. The constitutional crisis comes if interim appointees vote not to remove.
posted by ASCII Costanza head at 11:35 AM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

"I am all alone (poor me) in the White House..."

Worst. Home. Alone. sequel. ever.
posted by nubs at 11:36 AM on December 24, 2018 [51 favorites]

By 2027, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, the richest 1 percent will have received 83 percent of the tax cut and the richest 0.1 percent, 60 percent of it. But more than half of all Americans — 53 percent — will pay more in taxes.

This, right here, is why the economy needs to tank before 2020 and why I want it to tank before 2020. Because if it happens when some future administration is in power -- and it will happen, the robber barons have already seen to that quite thoroughly -- American voters will have forgotten entirely about the 2018 billionaire tax cut bill, and we will most certainly have forgotten that its orchestrators deliberately structured that bill to be a time bomb that would blow up years after they raked in their money.

I remain convinced that the only guaranteed way to take Trump down is for the time bomb to go off a few years early, while he is still in his first term. When middle aged suburban conservatives wake up one morning to find their retirement funds are suddenly empty, I want them to have to face the fact that Trump and Mitch McConnell's Senate are the incontrovertible culprits.
posted by Vic Morrow's Personal Vietnam at 11:52 AM on December 24, 2018 [20 favorites]

Missed this last week, but apparently, some people attempted to use Russian-style social media influence tactics against Roy Moore in the Alabama election. Has this been discussed previously?

It worries me that Democrats tried this and may try this again. I came across the story after seeing it used by an alt-right Twitter account pointing to it as a kind of "look what the Democrats are doing" example and also using the same story to attack the idea that a Russian disinformation campaign could have influenced the 2016 election on half the budget of this Alabama effort. Seems to me using these tactics will tarnish Democratic efforts in the long run.
posted by StrawberryPie at 12:00 PM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

The S&P closed down 2.73%. This was a short and under-attended trading session, so naturally prices would be more volatile. But that is one hell of a way to get ready for trading on Boxing Day.
posted by ocschwar at 12:02 PM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

Americans are allowed to use meme tactics to influence our own elections. We're allowed to try to convince each other to vote the way we think is right. We're allowed to try to split the votes of the opposing party. We're currently even allowed to use propaganda and some outright lies to that effect.

Other countries are not. The problem with "Russian-style social media influence tactics" is not the tactics; it's that they came from Russia.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:05 PM on December 24, 2018 [41 favorites]

I am all alone (poor me) in the White House

He actually put in "poor me". Anyway, this is the perfect setup for a Scrooge style homage.

"They were a gloomy suite of rooms, in a lowering pile of building up a yard, where it had so little business to be, that one could scarcely help fancying that it must have run there when it was a young house, playing at hide-and-seek with other houses, and have forgotten the way out again. It was old enough now, and dreary enough, for nobody lived in it but [Trump], the other rooms being all let out as offices."
posted by dannyboybell at 12:09 PM on December 24, 2018 [15 favorites]

@dansinker: Amazing opportunity for three White House interns to dress up like ghosts and change history.
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:16 PM on December 24, 2018 [140 favorites]

The problem with "Russian-style social media influence tactics" is not the tactics; it's that they came from Russia

I'm actually not going to be ok with multi-platform astro-turfed campaigns of propaganda and disinformation that plant and foster bigoted conspiracy theories that are, like, protocols of zion, Nazi grail in a warehouse level of shithouse crazy even if it comes from an American.

Like when the Koch brothers flood our media with literal Nazis I'm not going to think it's fair play.

It's still fucking Nazis. It's the Nazis that are a problem, no matter where they come from.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:34 PM on December 24, 2018 [26 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump: "I never “lashed out” at the Acting Attorney General of the U.S., a man for whom I have great respect. This is a made up story, one of many, by the Fake News Media!"

Lawyers will note that this is not an explicit denial he engaged in obstruction of justice by discussing the SDNY case against Cohen with his Acting Attorney General.

CNN's Michael Cohen reminds Trump about their reporting: “"Multiple sources familiar with the matter" told CNN that Trump lashed out at least twice to Whitaker about the Michael Cohen case. 1st was after Cohen pleaded guilty to lying to Congress. 2nd was after prosecutors implicated Trump in hush money scheme.”

(Everyone else took Trump's bait and is running headlines "Trump denies lashing out at AAG" as though losing his temper is the problem.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:41 PM on December 24, 2018 [4 favorites]

I'm actually not going to be ok with multi-platform astro-turfed campaigns of propaganda and disinformation

I'm not okay with those, but they're currently legal. Sorting out the ethics of internal campaign tactics is an entirely separate issue from foreign countries buying election ads and donating to campaign activities. Our Nazis, as vile and numerous as they are, are not influential enough to put a president in office - but combine their efforts with foreign financing, and they did.

I want us to stomp out the Nazis, but that's at least somewhat a social issue, not a legal one. I want us to enforce our campaign laws, including prison terms for anyone who knowingly allowed foreign money to be used on US elections. (Dammit, we had plenty of people here on Metafilter who wanted to donate to Clinton's campaign, but couldn't.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:42 PM on December 24, 2018 [3 favorites]

I am all alone (poor me) in the White House...

I don't use Twitter very often, so I'm not sure I did this right, but I replied with Livia Soprano saying "Poor You."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:45 PM on December 24, 2018 [6 favorites]

Missed this last week, but apparently, some people attempted to use Russian-style social media influence tactics against Roy Moore in the Alabama election.

The NY Times' reporting, which relies heavily on republican sources, has a much scarier slant on it than the WaPo's: Researcher whose firm wrote report on Russian interference used questionable online tactics during Ala. Senate race:

Jonathon Morgan, chief executive of the research firm New Knowledge, said he created a Facebook page under false pretenses to test his ability to appeal to conservative voters and bought a small amount of retweets — spending less than $10 — to measure the potential “lift” he could achieve in social media messaging.

It's also notable that the group who did this have been blocked from Facebook, presumably to prevent any criticism of partisan favoritism: Facebook suspends five accounts, including that of a social media researcher, for misleading tactics in Alabama election.

The lead researcher, Jonathon Morgan, is no stranger to metafilter, he's tracked ISIS on twitter, was part of the Hamilton 68 team, and has charted the how the alt-right took over the Trump campaign. This doesn't seem to be a case of a partisan hack doing partisan hacking.
posted by peeedro at 12:47 PM on December 24, 2018 [10 favorites]

Yeah, this is not good, and I cannot believe it it's legal:

The project’s operators created a Facebook page on which they posed as conservative Alabamians, using it to try to divide Republicans and even to endorse a write-in candidate to draw votes from Mr. Moore. It involved a scheme to link the Moore campaign to thousands of Russian accounts that suddenly began following the Republican candidate on Twitter, a development that drew national media attention.

“We orchestrated an elaborate ‘false flag’ operation that planted the idea that the Moore campaign was amplified on social media by a Russian botnet,” the report says.

And... Moore's a pedophile. An honest to God pedophile. Was it really necessary to make stuff up to smear him?
posted by xammerboy at 12:47 PM on December 24, 2018 [8 favorites]

Was it really necessary to make stuff up to smear him?

It certainly appeared so for a while. People were voting for the pedophile. Still voted for the pedophile. The scariest thing about post-2016 politics is how clear it is how many people don't give a shit about anything except which team wins.
posted by ctmf at 12:54 PM on December 24, 2018 [27 favorites]

On the Media had a great interview with the folks at the Trump Inc. podcast about Cohen and Manafort. Key takeaways included:

(A) The Mueller investigation might be taking longer than expected not because Mueller is dotting all the i's, but instead because the number of people and crimes involved keeps getting bigger. The Manafort investigation alone could take up 100% of a Mueller sized team's time. The Trump investigation is ten times bigger than that, and keeps getting bigger and more convoluted.

(B) It looks more and more like Trump was directing Cohen to meet with Russian operatives to explore opportunities for "political synergies" as early as 2015. This means Trump's collusion with Russia may have began before he planned to run for president. I find this jaw dropping. It suggests Trump did not merely get a coordinated assist from Russia during his campaign, but that his campaign was co-planned and coordinated with Russia from its inception.
posted by xammerboy at 1:01 PM on December 24, 2018 [53 favorites]

Poor Mueller.

INTERN: "Okay, boss, I got those financial records you asked for."
MUELLER: *absently takes papers, glances at them* "Good; this should confirm that he knew in January--"
*stares at numbers* "Godddamit."
INTERN: "Sir?"
MUELLER: "Get out the subpoena template; we're going to need six of them. Oh, and set up another indictment form."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:10 PM on December 24, 2018 [38 favorites]

but that his campaign was co-planned and coordinated with Russia from its inception.

Fuck, it wasn't even his idea. He got in deep with the Russian mob over his debt, then they told him he was going to run for president. He's the highest-placed mole in history, and I guarantee you someone's been what-if-ing it only half in jest since the 90s or before. Then Donald fell in their laps and they said "fuck it, why not? what's the down-side if we fail?"
posted by ctmf at 1:12 PM on December 24, 2018 [23 favorites]

One thing that should be absolutely clear at this point is that "NO COLLUSION" is the "I am not a crook" of our time.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 1:16 PM on December 24, 2018 [50 favorites]

Fuck, it wasn't even his idea. He got in deep with the Russian mob over his debt, then they told him he was going to run for president.

Trump has been flirting with running for POTUS for almost 20 years.
posted by PenDevil at 1:19 PM on December 24, 2018 [8 favorites]

xammerboy: "Moore's a pedophile. An honest to God pedophile. Was it really necessary to make stuff up to smear him?"

Jones only won by two points. I don't know if necessary but being a pedophile was barely disqualifying.
posted by Mitheral at 1:24 PM on December 24, 2018 [15 favorites]

National Christmas Tree will be lit again after donations save it from darkness during shutdown (Eli Rosenberg, WaPo)

The tree and its lighting had been damaged by a rogue climber on Friday, and it was unclear whether it would be fixed in time for the holiday.

But the private sector stepped in when the federal government could not.

The National Park Foundation, a nonprofit that is the official charity to help private money improve the national park system, gave the National Park Service enough money both to investigate the damage caused by the climber and to keep the park open and lighted through Jan. 1, it announced Monday.

Honestly, I wish they had just left it off. It was the perfect symbol of this dysfunctional, disheartening year.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 1:42 PM on December 24, 2018 [50 favorites]

National Christmas Tree will be lit again after donations save it from darkness during shutdown

A nation that has no difficulty privately funding the national christmas tree and raising tens of millions for a spiked border wall while letting people die from lack of insulin definitely deserves to exist.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:08 PM on December 24, 2018 [82 favorites]

(Re the codes, I should note I was just quoting this wikipedia article and have no particular insider knowledge.)
posted by lucidium at 2:15 PM on December 24, 2018 [4 favorites]

McCaskill warns Dems about 'cheap' rhetoric; says GOP senators privately believe Trump is 'nuts'

"Now they'll tell you, if it's just the two of you, 'The guy is nuts, he doesn't have a grasp of the issues, he's making rash decisions, he's not listening to people who know the subject matter,' " she said. "But in public if they go after him ... they know they get a primary, and they know that's tough."

They also swore an oath to "support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic." Not the Republican Party. Not their careers.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:40 PM on December 24, 2018 [55 favorites]

Trump has been flirting with running for POTUS for almost 20 years.

He thinks it was flirting. It was harassment.
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on December 24, 2018 [99 favorites]

Weak shit, Claire. Name names. Stop protecting your lobbying career.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:01 PM on December 24, 2018 [44 favorites]

And the way you get things done here is by reasonable negotiation and compromise," McCaskill said of the 2020 race.

And she says Warren is a "crazy Democrat."
posted by This time is different. at 3:11 PM on December 24, 2018 [12 favorites]

“We were curious whether the phrase "political revolution" would excite people or turn them off, so we asked half our sample whether they agreed or disagreed with this statement: "In the next decade, a political revolution might be necessary to redistribute money from the wealthiest Americans to the middle class." Redistribution turned out to be popular.
posted by The Whelk at 3:39 PM on December 24, 2018 [15 favorites]

So ICE has dumped hundreds of migrants at the greyhound station in El Paso yesterday and today, with no warning and no real explanation. Beto is there with a bunch of volunteers getting people supplies and places to stay. I know people all over Texas collecting funds to get hotel rooms, etc. I can't tell that anyone really knows why this has happened, but suspicions seem to be it is shutdown related.

“Feliz Navidad,” volunteers said as they handed out sack lunches to the men, women and children arriving Monday afternoon at the Greyhound bus station. Children smiled as they were handed stuffed animals and other toys...

...Calls to ICE were not returned. Because the federal government is shut down, employees in nonessential positions, such as some public affairs positions, are not working. An email to ICE bounced back with an automatic reply stating the agency's public affairs officers by law cannot work or respond to media inquiries during the shutdown."

posted by threeturtles at 3:51 PM on December 24, 2018 [58 favorites]

McCaskill: "the parts of the country that are rejecting the Democratic Party, like a whole lot of white working class voters, need to hear about how their work is going to be respected"

Why? White working class people are about 20% of the country. (I don't know if they're 20% of voters.) Why should the Democratic Party cater to the interests of this minority, over those who need policies that protect their very right to live, and those whose ability to get jobs, education, housing are under direct threat?

Nobody's trying to drive white working class voters out of the country, or into poverty or prison. There is no need for politicians to give them special consideration.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 3:56 PM on December 24, 2018 [41 favorites]

McCaskill: "the parts of the country that are rejecting the Democratic Party, like a whole lot of white working class voters, need to hear about how their work is going to be respected"

Who is disrespecting their work, anyway? How? What does that even mean?
posted by thelonius at 4:14 PM on December 24, 2018 [12 favorites]

Hey the white working class voters, I feel like I've read about them.. somewhere ...before.... (Maybe let's not do another loop around the timeworn points there.)
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 4:16 PM on December 24, 2018 [14 favorites]

Let’s check in on Trump taking Santa tracker calls. How could that go wrong?

Trump (in booming voice) to a kid named Coleman: "Hello, is this Coleman? Merry Christmas. How are you? How old are you?.... Are you doing well in school? Are you still a believer in Santa?"

So, uh, merry Christmas, Coleman.
posted by zachlipton at 4:58 PM on December 24, 2018 [59 favorites]

@waltshaub
Lest anyone misunderstand this tweet, the President just announced on Christmas Eve that he has negotiated for the murderer of a Washington Post journalist from Virginia to send planeloads of money to Putin-backed Assad.
posted by adamvasco at 5:02 PM on December 24, 2018 [41 favorites]

#ShutdownStories
My husband is a Park Ranger in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, and he had to sign his furlough papers. We have a 4 yr old and a 4 month old, and we don't know when his next check will come. Mortgage is due, Christmas 2 days away.
posted by growabrain at 5:16 PM on December 24, 2018 [26 favorites]

This was probably discussed at some point and I missed it but evidently even were Trump to get his $5 billion, that would only cover 150 new miles of

...a bollard barrier made of steel poles, erected close enough together to prevent entry but far enough apart that Border Patrol agents can see what’s happening on the other side. (This is the “see-through wall” that Trump got excited about back in 2017.) Previous administrations referred to bollards as fencing; the Trump administration calls it a wall; and Trump himself has started calling them “steel slats” because he thinks it sounds tougher.

That figure Vox offers may be based somehow on a DHS fact sheet from a month ago mentioned here, which listed a total of 330 miles, presumably a combination of new, refurbishment of existing, and construction funded from previous appropriations.
posted by XMLicious at 6:01 PM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

Are you still a believer in Santa?

This misses the best part. "BECAUSE AT SEVEN, IT'S MARGINAL, RIGHT?"
posted by waitingtoderail at 6:19 PM on December 24, 2018 [46 favorites]

The President talks to a seven-year-old about Santa
posted by waitingtoderail at 6:22 PM on December 24, 2018 [10 favorites]

This misses the best part. "BECAUSE AT SEVEN, IT'S MARGINAL, RIGHT?"

[real]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:01 PM on December 24, 2018 [27 favorites]

The best response on Twitter:

Child : "Are you still a believer in trickle-down economics? Because at 72, its marginal, right?"
posted by misterpatrick at 7:06 PM on December 24, 2018 [71 favorites]

This misses the best part. "BECAUSE AT SEVEN, IT'S MARGINAL, RIGHT?"

As someone commented, that video must be from last year. Melania hasn’t been with him all week, right?

I mean, that’s not better, really.
posted by greermahoney at 7:08 PM on December 24, 2018 [1 favorite]

Melania came back to DC around the same time that POTUS tweeted that he was sad and alone.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:10 PM on December 24, 2018 [2 favorites]

Gold star to the kid for positioning an intelligence asset in the White House even more cheaply than Putin did.
posted by XMLicious at 7:15 PM on December 24, 2018 [7 favorites]

It’s all fun and games until that seven year old is holding a cabinet position
posted by The Whelk at 7:28 PM on December 24, 2018 [18 favorites]

Yeah, sorry. I didn’t realize she came back mid-day. I thought she came back in the evening. Just one more example of 45 just killin’ it in 2018, I guess.
posted by greermahoney at 7:47 PM on December 24, 2018

I wonder if the kid calling NORAD on Christmas eve to find out where Santa is has gone wobbly on the whole spirit of the season
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:07 PM on December 24, 2018 [5 favorites]

And she says Warren is a "crazy Democrat."

I have had a lot of time for McCaskill: she's a very able politician. (She's also the one senator I have given directions to in a city that was unfamiliar to her.) But the state she represents changed beneath her feet over the last six years, and ultimately she knew it, even if she can't square the fact that a fair few people who voted for her in 2006 and 2012 decided, when given the shittiest of options, to go all-in on it. It's not fun when a decisive proportion of your voters turn out to be arseholes, but it's also not fun to be part of the non-decisive majority of those voters in Kansas City and St Louis and other blue areas and be shat upon. Sorry your state got worse. Sorrier you can't say so.
posted by holgate at 9:51 PM on December 24, 2018 [15 favorites]

Tokyo stocks plunge in Christmas rout amid fears over US economy
Nikkei falls 5% as government shutdown in Washington spooks markets

Tokyo markets, which were closed on Monday for a national holiday, plummeted at the open on Tuesday, with the Nikkei down more than 5% – over 1,000 points – shortly before the morning break.

[...]

In Asia, many markets were closed for Christmas, including in Australia, Hong Kong and South Korea. US and European markets will also be closed for the holiday.

But the downturn affected those bourses that remained open, with China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index opening lower and tumbling more than 2% during the morning session.

Break out your butt superglue for cheating at rodeos... it's gonna be a wild ride
posted by XMLicious at 11:39 PM on December 24, 2018 [3 favorites]

You know Christmas day, when it's all nice and quiet...everybody home with their families, nobody out on the streets?
That would actually be really good time to arrest a president. Just nice and quiet and peaceful... Well, those are the sugarplums dancing in my head. Happy holidays to all and to all a good night.
posted by sexyrobot at 12:44 AM on December 25, 2018 [16 favorites]

Honestly... I don't care what McCaskill says. I voted for her (I even volunteered for her a little!) and she was undoubtedly much better than Hawley will be. We needed her seat. But she is not, by any means, a model for what the Democratic party should be or become. I had to repeatedly call her and ask her to take a stand against CHILD CONCENTRATION CAMPS, for fuck sake.

And for all her attempts to be a moderate (whatever that means in an era of CHILD CONCENTRATION CAMPS), she still lost decisively. It didn't work. Her style of Democratic politics is over. The future of the Democratic party is with Democrats who stand up for Democratic values, not people who try to work across the aisle. Her advice is wrong. Let's move on.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 5:36 AM on December 25, 2018 [80 favorites]

WaPo's Philip Rucker reports from the Trump White House:

—At Christmas morning photo opp to call troops, Trump gives long defense of the wall and then veers, unprompted, into a discussion of firing Jim Comey.
—Trump claims that “many” federal workers want the government to stay closed: "Many of those workers have said to me, communicated, stay out until you get the funding for the wall. These federal workers want the wall."
—Trump on the wall: “There may be a case of an Olympic champion who may get over the wall, but for the most part, you’re not going to be able to do it.”
—Trump this morning on the wall: “While we’re fighting over funding, we’re also building, and it’s my hope to have this done, completed, all 500 to 550 miles, to have it either renovated or brand new by election day.”

* WaPo reports how Federal workers are scrambleing to make ends meet during shutdown.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:07 AM on December 25, 2018 [23 favorites]

Merry Christmas, megathread. Especially the mods.
posted by lazaruslong at 8:41 AM on December 25, 2018 [124 favorites]

Trumpspeak:

DID YOU KNOW? = "I just found this out"
PEOPLE ARE SAYING = "I'm making this up"
WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS = "I have no idea what is happening"
FAKE NEWS = "This information makes me look bad"
BELIEVE ME = "I'm lying"
WITCH HUNT = "What do I do now?"
posted by growabrain at 8:47 AM on December 25, 2018 [106 favorites]

You guys, it's been a long two years. And even longer megathreads. I feel like something shifted on the solstice, and it really is a new dawn. May the spirit of Christmas infuse us all, let peace come to us and those we fear, and in the words of a child not in a concentration camp, may God bless us, every one. I love y'all.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:47 AM on December 25, 2018 [77 favorites]

At Christmas morning photo opp to call troops, Trump gives long defense of the wall and then veers, unprompted, into a discussion of firing Jim Comey

Video: “It’s a disgrace what’s happening in our country” — a Christmas message from the president

Also, no better way to demonstrate a steady hand on the tiller than to talk about firing/sidelining the Treasury Secretary:

Before Tuesday’s comments, one person familiar with the president’s thinking said that Trump had weighed dismissing Mnuchin, while another said that Mnuchin’s tenure may depend in part on how much markets continue to drop.
[...]
In a sign Trump may have lost some faith in Mnuchin, the president has asked whether one or more of his advisers could meet with [Federal Reserve chairman Jerome] Powell, according to a person familiar with the matter. That would be seen as undermining the authority of the Treasury chief, who sees Powell for lunch once a week and is normally the official designated to deliver the administration’s views.

posted by peeedro at 9:37 AM on December 25, 2018 [4 favorites]

Outtakes from the Obama’s first Christmas address

I just miss them so much! Merry Christmas, y’all!
posted by Weeping_angel at 9:44 AM on December 25, 2018 [9 favorites]

Data for Progress, The Chart that Broke our Brains:

The New York Times recently published a piece that explored why many of the people who depend on government assistance end up voting for Republicans, the one political party which is not only determined to cut all forms of government assistance but is openly hostile to the concept of government itself (at least the parts of government that don’t kill, imprison, or spy on people). [...]

There is a striking increase in polarization by income in high transfer vs low transfer counties. Upper middle income voters who are unlikely to receive much in transfers themselves, but live in counties who are highly dependent on transfers are very Republican, while their lower income neighbors are much less so. In other words, the trend of increased Republican preference in counties that are highly dependent on transfers is not primarily driven by increased Republican preference among those who are receiving those transfers. Instead, the trend is much better explained by more well off (and likely resentful) residents of those counties. [emph. ragtag's]

GMO, The Late Cycle Lament: The Dual Economy, Minsky Moments, and Other Concerns:

Far from the sanguine consensus of the current state of health of the U.S. economy, in this paper I demonstrate that this is the slowest and weakest recovery in post war history. Whilst GDP growth has been poor, labour productivity growth has been worse, and real wage growth worst of all. The headline data obscure even more worrying trends. Effectively, the U.S. is witnessing the rise of the “dual economy”—where productivity growth is reasonable in some sectors, and totally absent in others. Even in the sectors with good productivity growth, real wages are lagging (wage suppression is occurring). All the employment growth we are seeing is coming from the low productivity sectors. On top of this, the paltry gains in income that are being made are all going to the top 10%. This is not what a booming economy should feel like.

posted by ragtag at 9:46 AM on December 25, 2018 [27 favorites]

Meowy Kitmas, say my fur family! I do my big celebration on Christmas Eve, so today it's mashed potatoes, gravy, and pie for breakfast, and no shame! May this year's Blue Wave continue to build into the new one and every year hereafter.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 10:00 AM on December 25, 2018 [15 favorites]

Trumpspeak:

COUNTING WORD ("many", "mostly") = the opposite ("not many", "mostly not")
ANY NUMBER = pick a random number; you're probably closer than he is
posted by Etrigan at 10:16 AM on December 25, 2018 [11 favorites]

Best response I've seen to the wall contract, via Walter Shaub's Twitter: "Perhaps @PressSec provide us with the contract number, firm to which it was awarded, as well as identify the source selection authority...so that these claims may be verified? I doubt it, but had to ask."
posted by MonkeyToes at 10:28 AM on December 25, 2018 [17 favorites]

The New York Times recently published a piece that explored why many of the people who depend on government assistance end up voting for Republicans

And if you dig in, what you find out is that isn't really true. It isn't poor people voting Republican. What happens is that poor people who depend on government assistance just don't vote. That leaves everyone else to vote Republican. That's how you get a county in Kentucky in which 60% are on Medicaid voting 80% for destroying Medicaid. Voter turnout is tiny and Republicans turn out.

What Democrats need to figure out is why those people aren't voting. Is it voter suppression? Is it lack of motivation? Is is alienation? Lack of information? Probably all of these.
posted by JackFlash at 10:35 AM on December 25, 2018 [57 favorites]

Breaking: A migrant child in U.S. custody has died in New Mexico, Customs and Border Protection officials said (WaPo)

Officials said the cause of the Guatemalan child’s death was not known, but said the 8-year-old had been treated for a cold and fever at a hospital on Christmas Eve. The child died early today.

This is the second death of an immigrant child in U.S. custody this month.

... that we know of.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 10:37 AM on December 25, 2018 [38 favorites]

More Trumpspeak:

WE'RE LOOKING INTO THAT - what the hell did you just ask me? is that a thing? should we know this?
WE'LL HAVE AN ANSWER FOR YOU IN TWO WEEKS - we'll stall and hope you forget
posted by hangashore at 10:41 AM on December 25, 2018 [15 favorites]

This is the second death of an immigrant child in U.S. custody this month.
... that we know of.

5 days ago Nielsen refused to say how many have died in her custody. They only tell us about the deaths that they think we're going to find out about anyway.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:49 AM on December 25, 2018 [44 favorites]

What Democrats need to figure out is why those people aren't voting. Is it voter suppression? Is it lack of motivation? Is is alienation? Lack of information? Probably all of these.

Other reasons:

Lack of time away from work (while the law may require that employers give some time, it may not allow for transit, and certainly doesn't allow for being exhausted)
Belief that refraining from voting sends a message of anger (may fall under "lack of info," but is separate from "I don't know who any of these people are" or "I don't know where my polling place is")
Belief that only well-educated people are supposed to vote
Lack of access due to hardship (no car/car broke down; illness in family; double shift at work; disability that makes filling out ballots difficult)
Lack of education (can't read/can't read English; citizen child of resident-immigrant parents who doesn't realize they can vote)

Republicans count on every one of these winning them a few percentage points in every election in low-income areas. When they push to suppress votes, only some of it is aimed at shutting down polling stations or limiting mail-in votes; they push to keep people unaware of their voting rights and uncertain of how to exercise them.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 11:41 AM on December 25, 2018 [48 favorites]

There is also a lack of leadership and clear messaging from politicians to attract them. I don’t know why “I want to make your life better” is such an alien idea to some politicians*. Vote for me so things don’t get worse is a losing message.

Anyway, some good news.

“Twenty five chefs came together to prepare Christmas paella 🥘 for the migrant exodus in Tijuana. 1600 pounds of meat, 800 pounds of rice, 400 pounds of olive oil, and a whole lot of love and solidarity.”

*okay, I know why.
posted by The Whelk at 12:02 PM on December 25, 2018 [25 favorites]

• Lack of access due to hardship (no car/car broke down; illness in family; double shift at work; disability that makes filling out ballots difficult)

CHILD CARE AT THE POLLS NOW.
posted by Etrigan at 12:24 PM on December 25, 2018 [12 favorites]

Etrigan: "CHILD CARE AT THE POLLS NOW."

Get wait times down to 10ish minutes and this plus a lot of other problems goes away. I don't think I've ever waited more than 15 minutes to vote in Canada. Most times I'm in and out in less than 5 minutes. Obviously if you have 60 choices to make it'll take longer but voting a straight ticket shouldn't take longer than getting a coffee at Starbucks.
posted by Mitheral at 1:44 PM on December 25, 2018 [18 favorites]

"CHILD CARE AT THE POLLS NOW."

Get wait times down to 10ish minutes and this plus a lot of other problems goes away.

Not counting the entire election cycle's worth of time in even the most well-behaved child's life when they can't be unsupervised for even 10ish minutes.

I absolutely support having enough polling booths in enough polling places (and, as you note, straight-ticket balloting) that it only takes 10 minutes to vote from arrival at your local school or community center (not church). But even then, just having a supervised playpen (yes, a literal cage) would make it easier for a lot of single parents of young children.
posted by Etrigan at 1:53 PM on December 25, 2018 [5 favorites]

CHILD CARE IN THE OVAL OFFICE NOW.
posted by uosuaq at 2:48 PM on December 25, 2018 [45 favorites]

BuzzFeed, Here's What The Parents Of The 7-Year-Old Girl Who Spoke To Trump About Santa Have To Say
posted by zachlipton at 5:29 PM on December 25, 2018 [2 favorites]

Despite Court Orders, Trump Administration Pushes Ineffective Abstinence-Only Sex Ed. Just another Trump administration policy that flies in the face of reality.
posted by homunculus at 12:24 AM on December 26, 2018 [8 favorites]

Russia’s Secret Weapon? America’s Idiocracy. What the Russian security services have done very deftly is tap into pre-existing pathologies in our society and encourage them, as an enabler might do a drug addict or alcoholic.

I actually RTFA, and something feels off about this blinkered "the West" perspective, one that aligns "Third World anti-colonialists" with others (all Russia supported) meant to divide "the West"... really? I mean, really? You can write that with a straight face.
posted by infini at 2:23 AM on December 26, 2018 [4 favorites]

NBC: Trump becomes first president since 2002 not to visit troops at Christmastime—Though he called military personnel on Tuesday, Trump did not visit a hospital or a military base.

For comparison, here is Mattis’s Xmas letter to the troops.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:11 AM on December 26, 2018 [12 favorites]

Included as a reference for the sake of completeness only* Did a Queens Podiatrist Help Donald Trump Avoid Vietnam? [NY Times]

In the fall of 1968, Donald J. Trump received a timely diagnosis of bone spurs in his heels that led to his medical exemption from the military during Vietnam.

For 50 years, the details of how the exemption came about, and who made the diagnosis, have remained a mystery, with Mr. Trump himself saying during the presidential campaign that he could not recall who had signed off on the medical documentation.

Now a possible explanation has emerged about the documentation. It involves a foot doctor in Queens who rented his office from Mr. Trump’s father, Fred C. Trump, and a suggestion that the diagnosis was granted as a courtesy to the elder Mr. Trump.

No conclusive evidence provided, but a fairly believable narrative.

* Since it's always been fairly clear that the 'bone spurs' deferment was almost certainly a financially assisted diagnosis...
posted by Buntix at 4:48 AM on December 26, 2018 [27 favorites]

The US’s point of failure and orginal sIn is white supremacy, the fact that anyone can easily levenge it as an exploit to push a country if 300 million around is why we need to eradicate white supremacy and inequality from all levels of society.
posted by The Whelk at 6:28 AM on December 26, 2018 [70 favorites]

What do the suburbs want? (Dylan Scott, Vox)

The suburbs abandoned Republicans in 2018, and they might not be coming back.
…
Suburban voters have a discrete set of economic concerns — which congressional Republicans by and large ignored. They fret about rising health care costs, either for themselves or for their aging parents, or both. They want good schools and for their children to be able to afford to go to college. They worry about the job prospects for their kids when they graduate. They are wary of extremism of any kind.

In an unfortunate paradox for Republicans, the economy mostly chugging along fine freed up these voters to devote more of their time to concerns about the president, who has an unparalleled ability to focus all attention on himself at all times.
…
Those voters are more comfortable and secure than people in poorer, more rural parts of the country — white working-class places where Trump might have won districts that went for Barack Obama before him. The suburbs don’t respond to Trump’s hardline rhetoric on immigrants and a border wall in the same way rural voters do.

“Threats of jobs going overseas, that sweet spot of Republican talking points with more downscale voters, doesn’t check the box for these suburban voters,” Molly Murphy, another Democratic pollster, said. “It just doesn’t resonate with what their needs and wants are.”

And where their needs and wants are - health care costs, income taxes - Republicans have often made things worse instead of better.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:45 AM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

And where their needs and wants are - health care costs, income taxes - Republicans have often made things worse instead of better.

Cutting the SALT deduction pissed off a lot of suburban districts where the people relied on that.
posted by NoxAeternum at 8:23 AM on December 26, 2018 [14 favorites]

Politico: The campaign to confirm a diplomatic novice to America’s top U.N. post—Less than two years ago, Heather Nauert was conducting interviews on ‘Fox & Friends.’ Now, she’s preparing to navigate the world’s raging geopolitical issues.

“If you consider what she’s seen in the last year-and-a-half, she’s probably got the equivalent of four or five MBAs in international relations,” [NY Jets owner, Trump donor, and diplomatic neophyte] Woody Johnson, the U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom, said in an interview.[…]

To prepare, Nauert is expected to sit through a series of briefings on trade and global hot spots and could begin murder-board sessions shortly after the new year, which will be handled by the State Department and the White House Office of Legislative Affairs, according to two sources familiar with the process.

The same way Trump has replaced Sessions and Mattis with under-qualified internal candidates, so goes the US ambassador to the UN. And they’re all hoping to cram/bluff their way through the job.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:42 AM on December 26, 2018 [26 favorites]

As a Californian - I can tell you that the nice, center-left suburbanites here in the Bay Area are PISSED at the loss of the SALT deduction. It made so much sense to itemize taxes before, not so much now. And most middle-class and up suburbanites have a 401K and/or IRA, and seeing those lose value also makes them angry.

Trump is finishing what Pete Wilson started here in California - the Republican party is on life support everywhere but the far inland regions. Here in the Bay Area, it's ready for the morgue even in the more conservative East Bay 'burbs. Just ask Catharine Baker, the Bay Area's lone remaining Republican assemblyperson, defeated by Democrat Rebecca Bauer-Kahan and the Blue Wave.

People here want to know that there will be good jobs for their kids, and a habitable planet for those kids and grandkids. They want a secure retirement. What they don't want is a wall, kiddie concentration camps, and All This Winning.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 8:43 AM on December 26, 2018 [38 favorites]

And some people wanted to quit Pelosi...

“First of all ... he says, ‘We’re going to build a wall with cement, and Mexico’s going to pay for it.’ While he’s already backed off of the cement, now he’s down to, I think, a beaded curtain or something.”
posted by chris24 at 9:06 AM on December 26, 2018 [80 favorites]

CNBC: Trump advisor says Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s jobs are safe

So, gone by the end of the week tops.
posted by Rykey at 9:10 AM on December 26, 2018 [23 favorites]

Nikita Gill: If We Remain Civil and Obedient Now

Here's the Adam Serwer piece referenced in the poem: The Cruelty Is the Point
posted by homunculus at 9:22 AM on December 26, 2018 [19 favorites]

Again, I'm reminded of the tweet noting that the decisive R voter in 2016 may have been someone whose factory was closed and whose sister has a pill addiction, but the median R voter was a dentist with a boat.

One of the odder generational things about conservatism in both the US and UK: during the 80s it was pretty good at creating new conservatives out of younger beneficiaries of economic growth, especially through housing wealth, but in the 2010s it really isn't. It pulls in people scared of the Other and neonazis and trolls who like owning the libs, but there aren't many tangible personal benefits unless you're already near the top of the income ladder. A conservatism that doesn't create new conservatives ends up doubling-down on ones who are dying off.
posted by holgate at 10:01 AM on December 26, 2018 [22 favorites]

Josh Marshall is acting like this Fred Trump/podiatrist story is a big scoop. I don't get it.
posted by holborne at 10:23 AM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

Exactly. 2016 called and wants its scoop back. Why would I care now, when I know beyond certainty that it will make utterly no difference whatsoever?
posted by Dashy at 10:27 AM on December 26, 2018 [10 favorites]

Fred Trump always calling in favors for his kids is the larger story. Not sure how big a deal it is now that he's passed on and his children are at retirement age.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:29 AM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

"Hey, everyone! I've found evidence that this obvious lie, told by a guy who lies all the time, is actually a lie!"
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:29 AM on December 26, 2018 [23 favorites]

Again, I'm reminded of the tweet noting that the decisive R voter in 2016 may have been someone whose factory was closed and whose sister has a pill addiction, but the median R voter was a dentist with a boat.

Lately a thought has been threatening to form in my head about how rightist resentment directed at the "elites" is directed at those elites they can see -- well off coastal libs drinking flat whites, liberal entertainers, even the median R dentist with the boat (who is now just about ready to vote reliably D, especially if she's a she), but it is not really directed at the elites they can't see, the Kochs, Mercers, and Kroenkes who live in a separate world from the rest of us, one walled off by mountains of money.
posted by notyou at 10:34 AM on December 26, 2018 [15 favorites]

The Path to the Presidency Could Be Harder for White Democrats in 2020 (Jamelle Bouie, Slate)

An assessment of what happened in 2016 shows that Trump’s continued race-baiting might make his opponents’ task harder.
…
In Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, political scientists John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, and Michael Tesler provide a short but useful summary of what happened: “In 2016, the presidential campaign focused on issues tied to racial, ethnic, and religious identities and attitudes. The two candidates took very different positions on those issues, and voters perceived those differences. People’s attitudes on these issues were then ‘activated’ as decision-making criteria and became even more strongly associated with white voters’ preference for Clinton or Trump.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:35 AM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

Yearly reminder that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million. Trump's presidency is based on a racist mechanism called the electoral college, and it's probable manipulation by foreign adversaries using tools such as algorithms, disinformation and illegally sourced social media metadata.
Trump's campaign didn't masterfully win by getting more votes, it was lifted by interested parties.
posted by Harry Caul at 10:43 AM on December 26, 2018 [52 favorites]

From the Slate article: In 2008, Clinton won the large majority of white primary voters who attributed racial inequality to “lack of effort”; in 2016, she narrowly lost them—and that carried over to the general election.

So, ah... she lost some of the racist white voters, and that may have cost her the election. This is not news, no matter how much Slate tries to hedge around calling voters "racist."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:46 AM on December 26, 2018 [7 favorites]

The Path to the Presidency Could Be Harder for White Democrats in 2020

This feels like when they started lamenting the dramatic mortality increase for white women, which while very bad, was still lower than the mortality rate for black women.

So the political difficulty setting moves from easy to medium.

It is however still at Hard for minorities who have always had to do this cross group appeal for other minorities and the white majority.
posted by srboisvert at 10:52 AM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

oh no he finally broke a cynical cycle of post-9/11 pandering and military fetishism quelle horror

And he's not acting presidential!!!
posted by Melismata at 11:08 AM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

I believe Trump just flew to the Middle East on VC-25A (Air Force One) using a disguise callsign of RCH358 and a disguise hex code which couldn't be traced back to any aircraft. Thanks to spotters in Europe, there is visual confirmation this is VC-25A 92-9000!

@aircraftspots on Twitter
posted by brentajones at 11:08 AM on December 26, 2018 [19 favorites]

Maybe he needs a bone saw for those bone spurs.
posted by M-x shell at 11:15 AM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

Plane spotters: you have my tremendous respect. It's pretty amazing that they've caught the POTUS trying to sneak off.
posted by weed donkey at 11:17 AM on December 26, 2018 [14 favorites]

The same way Trump has replaced Sessions and Mattis with under-qualified internal candidates, so goes the US ambassador to the UN. And they’re all hoping to cram/bluff their way through the job.

On the bright side, at least he actually appointed a UN ambassador instead of unilaterally pulling the US out of the UN altogether.

Honestly, I continue to be amazed he hasn't done that yet, especially following his laugh-filled address there.
posted by Thorzdad at 11:23 AM on December 26, 2018 [5 favorites]

Via Twitter - Josh Dawsey Confirmed: POTUS in Iraq — his first visit to a war zone.
posted by jazon at 11:23 AM on December 26, 2018 [3 favorites]

@BrianKarem For all of those who continue to ask about the president’s location. As per pool reports:

But I have gotten numerous requests about the president's whereabouts.

1) I have asked the WH press office. Have gotten no response.
2) No Marine outside the West Wing.
3) No one in upper press (lights off)
4) No one in lower press.
5) credible photo posted over England
6) credible posts from twitter guy who tracks military passenger planes.

So now you know all I do.

Take whatever actions on the reporting/writing front as you deem appropriate.

posted by scalefree at 11:34 AM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

Since Trump is Iraq right now, gonna lean towards [real].
posted by sideshow at 11:34 AM on December 26, 2018 [5 favorites]

WaPo: Trump makes unannounced visit to Iraq a week after announcing a victory over the Islamic State
posted by box at 11:34 AM on December 26, 2018

That's confirmed then.

@PressSec President Trump and the First Lady traveled to Iraq late on Christmas night to visit with our troops and Senior Military leadership to thank them for their service, their success, and their sacrifice and to wish them a Merry Christmas.
posted by scalefree at 11:36 AM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

To be fair they don't usually pre-announce visits of the POTUS to warzones for security purposes.
posted by PenDevil at 11:40 AM on December 26, 2018 [34 favorites]

So once again, news articles come out criticizing Trump (for not visiting the troops) and he turns around and makes a split second decision to do the thing he got criticized for not doing. That sounds extremely exploitable.
posted by Twain Device at 11:41 AM on December 26, 2018 [19 favorites]

Yeah, aren't the fake codes just part of the security measures? And spotters are a regular thing?

Trump (rolling eyes): ok, NOW what do I have to do?

Media: go visit the troops. Bush did it, so you have to too. You have to act presidential, and we have no imagination, and we have newspaper space to fill, regardless of how badly you're going to fuck it up and alienate people. Hop to it.
posted by Melismata at 11:44 AM on December 26, 2018 [3 favorites]

the "child died just before midnight, which we know because we were watching them so closely, so it's not actually a CBP Christmas murder" story isn't working so they had to send Trump on a field trip to try and grab the news cycle.

I'm disappointed that Beto isn't seizing this moment, since El Paso is in his district.
posted by rhizome at 11:58 AM on December 26, 2018 [4 favorites]

Just wait for this visit to come up again and again in his tweets and speeches:
"On my visit to the troops, which I have made more often than any other president, a marine came up to me, crying, and said 'Sir, thank you for your service' - not many people know that, but being in a war zone counts as service - and I said to him 'Bet you wish you had a wall like the one we have already built on the border to Mexico'!" [Fake, for now]

Whenever he is forced to do anything he cannot let go of it and has to bring it up time and time again; he needs to pay off the minor discomfort he had to endure over and over again. increasing his hardships with each retelling ("...was on the plane more than any Democrat president!" "Secret service tried to hold me back, saying it was too dangerous, no other president would ever do that, but I insisted, told them I'd fire them if they wouldn't get me there immediately!").

Oh, and I bet this whole trip was damage limitation in so many ways:
a) it got him out of the "lonely" White House where he had nothing to do but stew and tweet
b) it gives the Republicans something positive to crow about whenever the shutdown is brought up
c) it distracts from the current problems by giving the opportunity to deflect into you're-not-patriotic-why-are-you-not-supporting-the-troops territory
d) it takes the spotlight off the troops camped out at the Mexican border which won't be home for Christmas.
posted by PontifexPrimus at 11:58 AM on December 26, 2018 [28 favorites]

e) And possibly provide cover for a quick trip to Mar-A-Lago for NYE
posted by tvgraphicsguy at 12:04 PM on December 26, 2018 [15 favorites]

Donald Trump's Tweets Are Destabilizing the Economy and Hurting Stock Markets, Former Economic Officials Tell White House: Report

The trip, together with the faked leak of "why is the plane going towards the middle east" to capture attention, is a great excuse to clamp down on tweets for "security" reasons.
posted by infini at 12:14 PM on December 26, 2018 [5 favorites]

e) And possibly provide cover for a quick trip to Mar-A-Lago for NYE

This is the real reason. They sold NYE tickets for 200k again, he has to be there to put in the face time his foreign donors paid for.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:20 PM on December 26, 2018 [30 favorites]

His advisors have been trying to clamp down on his tweets since about halfway through the campaign season; I can't imagine they'll have any better luck now.

Any report that tells him he's causing problems is dismissed as "fake news."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:21 PM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

ABC: ".@MarthaRaddatz on surprise visit to U.S. troops in Iraq by Pres. Trump and first lady Melania Trump: "I cannot remember, really, a first lady going into a conflict zone." http://abcn.ws/2CAZ8MU "

CBS's Ed O'Keefe: "Barbara Bush went to Iraq. Hillary Clinton visited northern Bosnia when U.S. troops were stationed there. Laura Bush visited Afghanistan three times."
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:35 PM on December 26, 2018 [51 favorites]

Eleanor Roosevelt visited England in 1942 and Guadalcanal in 1943.

During the course of her [Pacific] trip she had visited 17 islands and it was estimated that she saw over 400,000 soldiers. In the end Admiral Halsey said, “she had accomplished more good than any other person or any group of civilians that had passed through my area.”

posted by adamg at 12:43 PM on December 26, 2018 [41 favorites]

I'm not a fan of Melania, but I imagine she is a good bit braver than her husband.
posted by mumimor at 12:46 PM on December 26, 2018 [9 favorites]

I'm disappointed that Beto isn't seizing this moment, since El Paso is in his district.

@BetoORourke:Many thanks to volunteers & donors who ensure that we take care of families being released by ICE in El Paso. 200 to be released today. Over 500 tomorrow. Please make a donation that will go to food and beds here: https://annunciationhouse.org/financial-donations/ …

Am at one of the shelters with families helping distribute food now — they are grateful. Kids who arrived sick getting medical care, families able to have a Christmas meal together. Thanks everyone for helping out!
posted by zabuni at 12:59 PM on December 26, 2018 [52 favorites]

WaPo: Dow soars more than 1,050 points, its biggest point gain in history, recovering from days of losses
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:09 PM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

Dow soars more than 1,050 points, its biggest point gain in history, recovering from days of losses

On the day that Trump left the country. Coincidence?
posted by JackFlash at 1:20 PM on December 26, 2018 [10 favorites]

My father in law and his wife worked all their lives for a secure retirement. 2008 hit them hard, turning a comfortable retirement into something at least still stable and secure. They wound up selling their dream home a couple years ago more for lifestyle concerns than money, but I'm sure that played a part. Yesterday he told us the last couple weeks of stock market craziness may well have cut ten years off their retirement plans. He admitted it's scary.

I'm watching this rally with some relief for him and all the other people out there whose retirement plans and not-rich-but-at-least-stable investments hinge on this stuff. But I'm also seeing all the pictures of happy traders and feeling like nobody's gonna learn anything from this.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:22 PM on December 26, 2018 [25 favorites]

He's going to take credit for "the biggest gain in the stock market in history," rather than the cataclysmic drop that brought it on.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:47 PM on December 26, 2018 [16 favorites]

To quote my hedge fund coworkers in the excitement of 2008: "Meow."
posted by ocschwar at 1:49 PM on December 26, 2018 [19 favorites]

pointless stunt at the border
he said mccain wasn't a hero for getting captured.
bone spurs
trans ban
wwi memorial rain
erroneously links protest against racial police violence to disrespect for the troops
ego parade
he made a gold star widow cry
he commands military officials without understanding their roles
his foreign policy endangers all Americans, but most of all those sworn to protect it, for self-serving political ends.
his party continues to screw the va

So that's ten from the top of my dome. There are more. So much more. I expect no-one who isn't a true believer in the military or outside it, will forget that he has demonstrated repeatedly that he does not respect them. One trip to Baghdad won't change that. Did he throw paper towels again?
posted by adept256 at 1:55 PM on December 26, 2018 [12 favorites]

pointless stunt at the border

There should be sub-bullet for this one. When asked about the troops missing Thanksgiving because of the border thing, he declared “Don’t worry about Thanksgiving, these are tough people. They know what they’re doing and they’re great. And they’ve done a great job. You’re so worried about the Thanksgiving holiday for them. They are so proud to be representing our country on the border.”
posted by Thorzdad at 2:23 PM on December 26, 2018

biden to millennials: drop dead
posted by entropicamericana at 2:39 PM on December 26, 2018 [13 favorites]

My father in law and his wife worked all their lives for a secure retirement. 2008 hit them hard, turning a comfortable retirement into something at least still stable and secure

And this is why trading garunteed income from pensions for 401ks ties to the stock market was always a terrible deal for working people and only benefited the rich and Wall St money managers.

The scope of liberal policy cannot be limited to what makes the market go up, all people deserve to have a stable retirement plan that can’t be wiped away in one bad trading day.
posted by T.D. Strange at 2:39 PM on December 26, 2018 [76 favorites]

Biden stuck with the “entitled millennial” characterization while speaking on Wednesday, calling on young people to get involved in politics rather than complain.

Well, that's the end of that possible presidential run.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 2:43 PM on December 26, 2018 [66 favorites]

“There's an old expression my philosophy professor would always use from Plato,” said Biden. “‘The penalty people face for not being involved in politics is being governed by people worse than themselves.’ It's wide open. Go out and change it.”

It really sounds like he's taunting us to primary old white guys. That's what he means, right?
posted by contraption at 2:46 PM on December 26, 2018 [61 favorites]

I understand the sentiment, but I've heard it phrased differently; a ballot is like a menu in a restaurant, if you don't choose something, something will be chosen for you and you have to eat it. I think he's making a point about participation.
posted by adept256 at 2:52 PM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

Sounds like Uncle Joe was commiserating with Mike Capuano, who lost his MA-07 seat to Ayanna Pressley. An analysis shows that he actually had a decent turnout in the primary, but that she rode a tidal wave of, ta da, millennial voters, many of whom turned out because of two+ years of organizing, largely by millennials, in communities such as Cambridge and Capuano's own Somerville, where he barely won.
posted by adamg at 2:55 PM on December 26, 2018 [12 favorites]

The Dow is still very far down - all the gains since October 2017 have been erased. And as far as I can tell from general economic indicators, this really shouldn't be happening [yet] except for Trump tariffs and uncertainty. My feeling based on no real expertise but very regular reading of general financial press stuff is that the market is...I dunno, overheated in a really serious way? The way it's gone up since the recession looks bananas to me. So inevitably there's going to be another crash, but it probably doesn't need to happen now, and the best thing to do is to sit tight if humanly possible if you've got a 401K.

But take a look online at the Dow's performance over the past thirty years - it ticks along until the Reagan eighties really get going, then it starts to go up, and when the neoliberal nineties hit, it takes off like a rocket. I personally think the Dow's performance since about 1984 is almost entirely grift and politics, and to the extent that the stock market was ever a rational way for businesses to raise money and people to essentially lend money to businesses for a reasonable return, it has totally abandoned anything like that.

As I understand it, prior to the mid-eighties, the point of most stocks was that they paid a dividend. If you had a lot of stocks, you didn't generally flip them around every two minutes, you just lived off the dividends (nice work if you can get it) and while it was exploitative it was straightforward - you invest in, say, a mining company, and they mine, and assuming that they don't crash the business, they pay your dividends quarterly based on their profits. The profits may come from exploiting workers and stealing from indigenous people, but they're fairly clearly connected to the actual stuff that gets mined.

Now, of course, it's all confidence games and tweets, and so it's both a lot more inflated, since not really pinned to clear sources of value, and a lot more precarious.
posted by Frowner at 2:55 PM on December 26, 2018 [30 favorites]

Encouraging participating is fine; telling Millennials that they don't have it so hard and times were tough in the 60s as well, is just clueless.

In the 60s, a part-time minimum-wage job could put a person through college.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 2:55 PM on December 26, 2018 [92 favorites]

All the while making his point that millennials don't have it as hard as the boomers. I'm pretty comfortable saying fuck Biden at this point TBH.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 2:55 PM on December 26, 2018 [23 favorites]

All the while making his point that millennials don't have it as hard as the boomers. I'm pretty comfortable saying fuck Biden at this point TBH.

Well, let's hope he continues to shoot himself in the foot. I'm not wild about any of the names being mooted right now, but I'm a lot closer to wild about someone who is not a retirement-age white centrist man. For any one of those descriptors, there's at least one candidate I like better.

Also, TBH if I were a rich person of retirement age, you know what I'd do? I'd fucking retire.
posted by Frowner at 2:59 PM on December 26, 2018 [51 favorites]

Government shutdown, day 4: Pelosi blames Trump for using 'scare tactics' over border wall

Pelosi mocked the shifting message from the White House about whether Trump wanted a "wall," a fence or some other structure.

"First of all, the fact ... that he says, ‘We're going to build a wall with cement, and Mexico's going to pay for it’ while he's already backed off of the cement – now he's down to, I think, a beaded curtain or something, I'm not sure where he is," Pelosi said.

posted by zachlipton at 3:01 PM on December 26, 2018 [42 favorites]

Biden owes his entire later career and current position as a presidential contender to the millennial vote which he rode Obama's coattails to victory upon. Because his own record of doing nothing for anyone except credit card companies would never have gotten him here. And he owes the millennial writers of the internet for creating the Biden-as-meme that covered up his actual horrible record and rewrote his image into a friendly one to the Obama coalition.

So say fucking thank you, Joe. We fucking made you. You're nothing without us.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:04 PM on December 26, 2018 [63 favorites]

now he's down to, I think, a beaded curtain or something,...

Times like this, I really love Pelosi.
posted by Mental Wimp at 3:09 PM on December 26, 2018 [29 favorites]

One of Biden's signature legislative achievements was majorly fucking over Millennials by ensuring student loans could not be dischargeable in bankruptcy, giving student loan companies zero incentive to ever work with borrowers. It's not particularly surprising that he's unsympathetic to all the financial hardship he personally helped cause.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 3:12 PM on December 26, 2018 [88 favorites]

Also, Biden’s behavior re: Anita Hill.
posted by The Whelk at 3:14 PM on December 26, 2018 [43 favorites]

I feel a little queasy just going for somebody's sense of manhood, but Pelosi's touch where she turns Trump's metaphorical dick into the frillery frippery of "beaded curtain" is just wonderful.
posted by angrycat at 3:17 PM on December 26, 2018 [46 favorites]

It's not like there's anything inherently un-masculine, or even gendered at all, about a beaded curtain. I associate them with hippies and potheads of all genders. But if it hits Trump where it hurts, I'm all for it.
posted by Faint of Butt at 3:25 PM on December 26, 2018 [16 favorites]

I can't play Mario Kart without thinking about it, now he's ruined beaded curtains.
posted by adept256 at 3:26 PM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

Just when you thought Trump wasn't in Iraq long enough to fuck something up...

Donald Trump Twitter Account Video Reveals Covert U.S. Navy SEAL Deployment During Iraq Visit
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 3:38 PM on December 26, 2018 [36 favorites]

Couple things deleted. I'm gonna agree that going to town on the Millennials V Boomers thing for the nth time is tired and doesn't need to happen. If you're angry at Joe Biden for saying something dumb, that is 100% okay but maybe let's leave it at "Joe Biden said something dumb" instead of going down a fucking vortex about it.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:49 PM on December 26, 2018 [35 favorites]

It's not like there's anything inherently un-masculine, or even gendered at all, about a beaded curtain.

Trump’s model of masculinity prefers curtains made out of iron.
posted by Behemoth at 4:01 PM on December 26, 2018 [7 favorites]

Metafilter: going down a fucking vortex about it.
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 4:22 PM on December 26, 2018 [21 favorites]

cortex vortex
posted by Faint of Butt at 4:26 PM on December 26, 2018 [69 favorites]

I mean, if you’re going to break protocol and maybe endanger troops, I guess Lee Greenwood is the right soundtrack.
posted by uncleozzy at 4:37 PM on December 26, 2018 [9 favorites]

I'm disappointed that Beto isn't seizing this moment, since El Paso is in his district.

As Zabuni noted, Beto is heavily involved in taking care of hundreds of asylum seekers suddenly dumped in El Paso by ICE, perhaps due to the shutdown. The only thing he isn't doing is milking either situation for publicity; he's just getting the job done. I count that as a plus.
posted by msalt at 5:01 PM on December 26, 2018 [68 favorites]

Donald Trump Twitter Account Video Reveals Covert U.S. Navy SEAL Deployment During Iraq Visit

Remember the toilet paper on his shoe? Remember everyone saying, "Wow, Trump is such an ass that nobody around him said anything to save him from embarrassment"?
This is the Really Real version of that.

I don't expect the president to know every little operational security protocol. I do expect the people around him to know shit like this and to speak up. Either nobody did, for whatever reason, or someone did and he didn't care. That sort of environment is generated by the person in charge.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:29 PM on December 26, 2018 [34 favorites]

Seems to be largely unsubstantiated but SHS might be leaving?

My money is on Mulvaney taking that spot
posted by Twain Device at 5:52 PM on December 26, 2018 [9 favorites]

FYI (and thanks to lalex in Slack for pointing it out), that Biden thing is almost a year old.
posted by ragtag at 5:54 PM on December 26, 2018 [9 favorites]

One worry, according to sources, is that Ms Sanders’ and Mr Shah’s departures could mean even more consolidation and vacancies in an already-bare bones senior staff.

"Nobody wants to come in," a source close to the administration told CBS News. "So they've gone through two rounds and now they're at third tier of people who are just lucking out -- battlefield promotion ends up promoting people who aren't qualified for the position”

I'm unsure whether someone worse than SHS would be a plus or a minus in that position.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:33 PM on December 26, 2018 [12 favorites]

Trump’s increasing isolation reminds Watergate prosecutor Nick Ackerman of the period preceding Nixon’s resignation
posted by growabrain at 6:49 PM on December 26, 2018 [5 favorites]

Yeah, it's a lot like that time Nixon hired a bunch of Russians to break into the White House and replace the president with a puppet.
posted by uosuaq at 7:02 PM on December 26, 2018 [27 favorites]

My feeling based on no real expertise but very regular reading of general financial press stuff is that the market is...I dunno, overheated in a really serious way?

A year of stock buybacks to take advantage of the new tax law?
posted by holgate at 7:22 PM on December 26, 2018 [2 favorites]

I'm unsure whether someone worse than SHS would be a plus or a minus in that position.

Two ways the person could be worse:

1. Be even more wooden in sticking to the script no matter how preposterous.
2. Actually engage the reporters and defend what's in the script.

Either way, worse is better. Invest in Orville Redenbaccher.
posted by ocschwar at 7:22 PM on December 26, 2018 [5 favorites]

I thought I caught a hint from an MSNBC report that Trump's sudden visit to Iraq where he may have compromised a Navy SEAL operation team would be beneficial information to Russia. It wouldn't surprise me at all.
posted by perhapses at 7:25 PM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

Vox on the current state of play in NC-09. Lotta fraud here.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:49 PM on December 26, 2018 [16 favorites]

WSJ: Whitaker falsely claimed to have been named an Academic All-American while in college.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:02 PM on December 26, 2018 [24 favorites]

> Doctor Zed: The same way Trump has replaced Sessions and Mattis with under-qualified internal candidates, so goes the US ambassador to the UN. And they’re all hoping to cram/bluff their way through the job.

If a candidate proves more qualified in their position than Trump thinks they are, he eventually feels inferior and dumps them. If they're less qualified than he thinks, he feels superior only as long as they stay "loyal".

If they have little or no relevant experience, no realistic idea of what they're supposed to do, and — like everyone else — absolutely no idea what Trump might say or do about a particular matter, they have to keep coming back to him for questions and answers. They're apprentices for life until they screw up or get fed up.
posted by cenoxo at 8:39 PM on December 26, 2018 [8 favorites]

Scenes from Trump in Iraq:

Trump flag (she dropped it after she saw me taking a photo)

#maga hat contingent at Ramstein waiting for President Trump

These soldiers would’ve (and should’ve) been court martialed for displaying this overt level of support for Obama.

The military is being willingly subverted in front of our eyes.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:05 PM on December 26, 2018 [58 favorites]

Also, TBH if I were a rich person of retirement age, you know what I'd do? I'd fucking retire.

Although I don't want Biden to run and I think his recent comments have been stupid, it's worth remembering he isn't rich, not by American standards at any rate. I mean, he'll have his Congressional and Vice-Presidential pensions, so he'll never be poor (unless they're revoked, and don't think the Republicans wouldn't love to do that to him if they could), but he sure isn't rich. When Beau Biden was dying of cancer, he and Jill came very close to selling their house to pay Beau's medical bills (so close that Barack Obama insisted on helping the Bidens with money if it came to that or the house - it didn't, but by all accounts it was close).
posted by mightygodking at 9:15 PM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

That’s much more damning of Biden’s character and career doing the bidding of big banks for 50 years.

He didn’t even get much out of it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:18 PM on December 26, 2018 [6 favorites]

Trump today lied in the faces of the troops in Iraq. He told them they haven't gotten a raise in 10 years but he has given them the biggest raise in history, 10%. That is a flat out lie. The raise is 2.6%. And they have gotten similar raises every year since 2008. And the biggest annual raise in recent history was 3.4% in 2010 under Obama and the Democrats.

Why the military is so beholden to the Republican Party is a mystery. Republicans lie to them and treat them like shit.
posted by JackFlash at 9:24 PM on December 26, 2018 [88 favorites]

.
posted by xammerboy at 9:24 PM on December 26, 2018

May I suggest, as a counterpoint the What A Hell Of A Way To Die podcast for leftist veterans talking about vet and military issues
posted by The Whelk at 9:31 PM on December 26, 2018 [15 favorites]

The military is being willingly subverted in front of our eyes.

They're just auditioning for the Waffen-GOP. ←interesting line from that Wikipedia article:

In U.S. alone, by the end of the 1990s there were 20 Waffen-SS reenactment groups, out of approximately 40 groups dedicated to German World War II units. In contrast, there were 21 groups dedicated to the American units of the same timeframe.^[52]

posted by XMLicious at 9:56 PM on December 26, 2018 [4 favorites]

Why the military is so beholden to the Republican Party is a mystery.

It just might have something to do with US federal expenditure toward that particular body, compared to correlative expenditure toward, say, literacy.
posted by aspersioncast at 10:01 PM on December 26, 2018 [7 favorites]

Although I don't want Biden to run and I think his recent comments have been stupid, it's worth remembering he isn't rich, not by American standards at any rate.

According to this article Biden stands to take in a quarter million a year in passive income until the day he dies, just from his federal pension alone. Maybe that's not guillotine rich, but it's certainly "don't need to work anymore" rich.
posted by contraption at 10:22 PM on December 26, 2018 [25 favorites]

"ABC: ".@MarthaRaddatz on surprise visit to U.S. troops in Iraq by Pres. Trump and first lady Melania Trump: "I cannot remember, really, a first lady going into a conflict zone." http://abcn.ws/2CAZ8MU "

CBS's Ed O'Keefe: "Barbara Bush went to Iraq. Hillary Clinton visited northern Bosnia when U.S. troops were stationed there. Laura Bush visited Afghanistan three times.""

My immediate response was, "You ignoramus, Martha Washington left the comfort of Mount Vernon to winter in Valley Forge with the Continental Army. And Cambridge, and Philadelphia, and Morristown and everywhere else Washington wintered with the army, every year, for six fucking months of the year, and she WORKED while she wintered with the army, knitting socks for soldiers and mending shirts.

Dolley Madison waited until the last possible moment to flee the White House when the Canadians invaded, and rescued the art. Mary Todd Lincoln visited encampments and battlefields with Abe all the time, although to be fair the battlefields were nearly on her doorstep. Lucy Hayes worked as a nurse on the battlefields of Virginia where her husband was a general (of course she wasn't First Lady yet then). Pat Nixon went to Vietnam and overflew active battlefields in a helicopter to visit the troops. Plus all the recent First Ladies who of COURSE went to conflict zones.

But sure, Melania's the first First Lady in a conflict zone and for some reason Martha Raddatz gets to be on network TV being ignorant for money. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

"And spotters are a regular thing?"

Yes and it's fun! You can get apps; since radio transmissions with air traffic control and traffic information are public (more or less), you can follow planes and identify them. I did it with my kids during their plane-crazy years -- it was fun to check the app and see what was flying over -- but serious plane-spotters who are super-into aviation are really really good at it.

Spotting Air Force One is a big "get" for people who keep life lists of spotted planes, so there's always interest in its movements. Its call sign is (often? sometimes? always?) faked and its flight plan is not public for security reasons, but you can see where it is by seeing where other planes AREN'T -- Temporary Flight Restrictions are public information and a good hint that a VIP's plane may be flying into your airport. So the exchange on twitter was just normal plane-spotting nerds sussing out a VIP plane by seeing what did and didn't match up.

I don't know a lot about it but that's the bits I picked up when my kids were very into plane-spotting. :)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:59 PM on December 26, 2018 [89 favorites]

He didn’t even get much out of it.

That's a slightly shitty midnset. Say what you like about Biden -- and yes, as a Delaware senator he has done a lot for his dirty tax haven state -- he has been on a public salary his entire working life, and has not really grifted the way that some (naming no Santorums or Kyls) have grifted. It doesn't do Democrats any good to say that the benefits from 40+ years of public service are too lavish, so stop that shit.
posted by holgate at 11:05 PM on December 26, 2018 [64 favorites]

don't know a lot about it but that's the bits I picked up when my kids were very into plane-spotting. :)

Seeing AF1 being AF1 (i.e. with the president on board, even if he's a dipshit) is a big fucking deal. I mean, I waited outside when I got notice of a Concorde taking a flight path above my childhood home, because sonic boom and holy fuck, and there were more than two Concordes.
posted by holgate at 11:08 PM on December 26, 2018 [7 favorites]

It does seem rather material as context to both the pro-Biden and anti-Biden points that in all likelihood he's a multi-millionaire, even if we should simply expect that even our moderately-compensated rulers will become multi-millionaires and that isn't rich by American standards. Here are a couple of his tax filings on what appear to be the official archive of the Obama White House web site (although oops, one of the PDFs is still visible on the current site): 2014 and 2015. It doesn't appear that they even had to sell their rental property much less the house as the rental income (source described as “cottage”) stayed approximately the same across both years.
posted by XMLicious at 12:33 AM on December 27, 2018

(AJ) Iraqi leaders denounce Trump visit to US troops

"Trump's visit is a flagrant and clear violation of diplomatic norms and shows his disdain and hostility in his dealings with the Iraqi government," said a statement from Bina.
posted by stonepharisee at 1:47 AM on December 27, 2018 [9 favorites]

Vox on the current state of play in NC-09. Lotta fraud here.

This article is shockingly underplaying the seriousness of what we already know to have happened.

It says "There were already legitimate concerns those ballots were mishandled, given the testimony of ballots that were collected unfinished or unsealed." Nowhere does it state that under NC law, taking anyone else's absentee ballot is straight-up illegal unless you're a family member. It doesn't matter whether the ballot is sealed and signed and fully filled out - it's still a crime. You can't list sworn allegations of ballot collection under "what we know" and then question whether ballots were mishandled.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:08 AM on December 27, 2018 [29 favorites]

It's good to see progressive Dems try to keep Pelosi from continuing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with awful third way legislative priorities that most harm the poorest among us: The Left Is Taking Aim at Pelosi’s Deficit Obsession

Bivens highlights a remarkable stat: “If this public spending following the Great Recession had followed the average path of the recoveries of the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, a full recovery with unemployment around 4 percent would have been achieved by 2013.”

Of course, this depends on centrist Democrats finally realizing the vast majority of voters who might vote for a Democrat don't care about deficits.
posted by Ouverture at 2:41 AM on December 27, 2018 [10 favorites]

These soldiers would’ve (and should’ve) been court martialed for displaying this overt level of support for Obama.

Hi. I was deployed to Iraq in 2009. Let me just say, from personal experience, that your hypothetical is incorrect.

Also, those mostly seemed to be airmen rather than soldiers, which makes sense given that Ramstein is an Air (Force) Base.
posted by Etrigan at 2:45 AM on December 27, 2018 [32 favorites]

Etrigan, like, with Obama HOPE signs or what?
posted by porpoise at 4:02 AM on December 27, 2018 [1 favorite]

Exactly those, yes. I’m remembering an Obama/Biden sign as well, but I may be misremembering — I’m definitely not misremembering the signed HOPE poster and photo that one soldier displayed behind their desk.
posted by Etrigan at 4:17 AM on December 27, 2018 [9 favorites]

AP Exclusive: Migrant teen tent city staying open into 2019

"The Trump administration said Wednesday it will keep open through early 2019 a tent city in Texas that now holds more than 2,000 migrant teenagers, and also will increase the number of beds at another temporary detention center for children in Florida [from 1,350 to 2,350].[…]

"Confidential government data obtained and cross-checked by AP has shown that as the year draws to a close, about 9,800 detained migrant children are in facilities holding 100-plus total kids, including Tornillo [TX] and Homestead [FL]."
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:56 AM on December 27, 2018 [13 favorites]

Not to excuse Trump's fuck-up in any way, but...wouldn't/shouldn't there have been someone there from the military (i.e. somebody higher up the ladder than the troops he was photographed with) to say "hey, please don't take any photos of this group for security reasons"?
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:11 AM on December 27, 2018 [7 favorites]

For $3 a day, Yesica works the graveyard shift in the kitchens of the for-profit immigration prison where she is locked up.

Each morning, at 1 a.m., the guards of the Joe Corley Detention Facility in southeast Texas rouse Yesica and the 35 other women who share a dormitory-style room. Work begins an hour later and lasts through sunrise, ending at 8 a.m. Yesica does everything from cooking breakfast, to serving her fellow detainees, to cleaning up.

Even at $3, toiling in the kitchen pays better than sweeping prison corridors, which pays the Immigration and Customs Enforcement-stipulated minimum of $1 a day. The work, officially speaking, isn’t mandatory. But “since there’s absolutely nothing to do” inside, Yesica said, detainees work to keep at bay the stress of not knowing when they’ll be released—or if they’ll be deported.

Yesica, 23, fled her native El Salvador after MS-13 persecuted her for being a lesbian. The brutal gang, which the Trump administration uses to demonize immigrants like her, murdered her father, and she came to the United States to seek the safety of rejoining family here. She has instead spent the last two years locked inside ICE’s prisons.

“This is a really terrible place,” Yesica told The Daily Beast through a translator from the Corley center. “It’s inhumane. It’s like a torture chamber.”

These are dangerous times for undocumented immigrants. ICE has been super-charged by the Trump administration. And ICE’s empowerment has been lucrative for the companies that both cage and employ immigrants like Yesica.

A Daily Beast investigation found that in 2018 alone, for-profit immigration detention was a nearly $1 billion industry underwritten by taxpayers and beset by problems that include suicide, minimal oversight, and what immigration advocates say uncomfortably resembles slave labor.

... Expanding the number of immigrants rounded up into jails isn’t just policy; it’s big business. Yesica’s employer and jailer, the private prisons giant GEO Group, expects its earnings to grow to $2.3 billion this year. Like other private prison companies, it made large donations to President Trump’s campaign and inaugural.
posted by Bella Donna at 6:15 AM on December 27, 2018 [62 favorites]

Hi. I was deployed to Iraq in 2009. Let me just say, from personal experience, that your hypothetical is incorrect.

I entirely believe you, but it is also the case that in 2009, Obama and Biden weren't running for anything; they'd already won 2008 and as was the norm, had made no announcement of their candidacy for 2012 until the spring of 2011.

Trump on the other hand not only announced his 2020 candidacy within days of winning* 2016, his administration is also issuing guidance that any talk among government employees of "resistance" or impeachment might be considered a violation of the Hatch Act because of that candidacy. Within that context it would probably be more appropriate to consider as a parallel whether the airmen were waving those signs in mid-2011.

*I don't have anything particular to add here, this is just the asterisk that will always appear in the history books next to Trump's name in any presidential election win records.
posted by solotoro at 6:30 AM on December 27, 2018 [13 favorites]

A few things to keep in mind after listening to public radio this morning.

1) This trip couldn't have been planned before Trump shutdown the government and cancelled his planned vacation to his vacation property that we pay to secure during his visits.

2) This trip is 100% in line with Trump's narcissistic need for approval, and consequently how "campaigning" is really the only skill he has.

3) Someone needed to distract the angry toddler with a field trip. This was an ad-hoc "Campaign Rally"

4) They're STILL using euphemisms for "lie". This is the most frustrating thing.
posted by mikelieman at 6:49 AM on December 27, 2018 [30 favorites]

infini: Donald Trump's Tweets Are Destabilizing the Economy and Hurting Stock Markets, Former Economic Officials Tell White House: Report

Huh, I thought his tweets were a good thing? There was such a focus on his tweeting in his early days as president-elect that This App Wants to Help You Trade Stocks Based on Trump Tweets (Jeremy Quittner for Fortune, January 5, 2017)

Professional traders and hedge fund managers apparently have algorithms and models to account for market turbulence from President-elect Donald Trump’s tweets. Now you can too.

An app called Trigger has just launched something it calls “Trump Trigger,” which sends users an alert every time Trump tweets about a publicly traded company.

If it sounds like a joke, it isn’t. Trump has taken to the social media platform numerous times since the November election to castigate, and occasionally praise, various companies, often to market-moving effect.

In December, for example, Trump took aim at Boeing for what he claimed was a $4 billion price tag on the new Air Force One, the presidential plane. Although Boeing has disputed that number, in a tweet, Trump said he planned to cancel the order. That sent Boeing shares down temporarily about 1% before the company’s stock price regained ground.

Emphasis mine, because despite a lot of focus on Trump's early impacts on the stocks, it seemed like his criticism and praise impacted stocks for a moment, before they returned to their prior status.

Then after a few months of Trump's inane tweets, it seemed that fewer people were trading in reaction to his tweets, so his impact decreased.

Now we're back to Trump's impacts ... but being negative, like the rest of his work as President.
posted by filthy light thief at 6:56 AM on December 27, 2018 [2 favorites]

5) Trump's trip was a classic gambit to change the subject.
posted by ZeusHumms at 6:58 AM on December 27, 2018 [7 favorites]

Missouri's GOP governor is trying to block voter-approved limits on lobbyists, gerrymandering (Matthew Rozsa, Salon)

Gov. Mike Parson, who took over in June after his predecessor resigned in disgrace, says he is thinking of repealing and replacing Constitutional Amendment 1, which the voters in his state overwhelmingly supported in last month's election. Gov. Parson told the Associated Press that he is also thinking about making it more difficult for initiative petitions to appear on the ballot, presumably due to his dissatisfaction with the success of Constitutional Amendment 1.

"Fundamentally, you think when the people vote you shouldn’t be changing that vote. But the reality of it is that is somewhat what your job is sometimes, if you know something’s unconstitutional, if you know some of it’s not right," Parson told the AP.

Constitutional Amendment 1 is, to say the least, very difficult to accurately describe as "unconstitutional." It requires lawmakers to abide by the state open-records law, restricts how much lobbyists can give to lawmakers as gifts and creates a new position of "nonpartisan state demographer" to redraw state House and Senate maps in a more fair way. This last initiative would quite likely cut into the Republicans' supermajorities in the state House and Senate.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:03 AM on December 27, 2018 [36 favorites]

LinkedIn cofounder apologizes for funding election disinformation campaign in Alabama (Nicole Karlis, Salon)

Following a report in the New York Times, Hoffman broke his silence
…

National races aren’t the only ones that are vulnerable to disinformation campaigns, but state races are too, bringing in the unlikeliest of enablers. On Wednesday, Internet billionaire Reid Hoffman, who co-founded professional networking site LinkedIn, issued an apology following reports describing his involvement in a disinformation campaign for the 2017 Alabama special election for U.S. Senate between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore.

The New York Times [previously, previously] first covered the pseudo-scandal, which claimed a group of Democratic tech experts allegedly tried to mimic deceptive Russian tactics and apply them to the Alabama special election. According to the New York Times, an internal report the publication obtained explained that the project “experimented with many of the tactics now understood to have influenced the 2016 elections.” Specifically, the operators created a fake Facebook page in which they pretended to be conservative Alabamians to divide Republicans and draw votes from Moore.
…
The report stated funding for the project came from Hoffman. However, in a statement titled, “Truth and Politics,” published on Medium, Hoffman denies being aware of the project or knowingly endorsing it.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:22 AM on December 27, 2018 [2 favorites]

Get Ready for a Privacy Law Showdown in 2019 (Issie Lapowsky for Wired, Dec. 27, 2018)

Companies like Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google are pushing hard for federal digital privacy legislation in 2019, and not quite out of the goodness of their hearts. This summer, California's state legislature passed a groundbreaking bill that would give residents unprecedented control over their data. The law, which has been widely criticized by pro-business groups like the Chamber of Commerce and the Internet Association, is set to go into effect on January 1, 2020.

So tech giants are racing the clock to supersede California’s law with a more industry-friendly federal bill. Given the bipartisan backlash to Big Tech in 2018, it seems possible that a deal on regulation could be reached, even in a divided Congress. “You have a bipartisan sense that some type of privacy legislation needs to happen, and at the same time, you have industry pushing for it,” says Neema Singh Guliani, senior legislative counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union. “We’re certainly in a moment that’s been different from moments in the past.”

Refresher on California's privacy law: California passes strictest online privacy law in the country (Heather Kelly for CNN Money, June 29, 2018)

Gov. Jerry Brown signed the California Consumer Privacy Act of 2018 on Thursday, hours after its unanimous approval by the State Assembly and Senate.

The law, which takes effect in 2020, gives consumers sweeping control over their personal data. It grants them the right to know what information companies like Facebook and Google are collecting, why they are collecting it, and who they are sharing it with. Consumers will have the option of barring tech companies from selling their data, and children under 16 must opt into allowing them to even collect their information at all.

Assembly member Ed Chau and state Sen. Robert Hertzberg introduced the legislation on June 21. It drew the support of some privacy advocates including Common Sense Media.

"The state that pioneered the tech revolution is now, rightly, a pioneer in consumer privacy safeguards, and we expect many additional states to follow suit," James P. Steyer, CEO and founder of Common Sense Media, said in a statement. "Today was a huge win and gives consumer privacy advocates a blueprint for success. We look forward to working together with lawmakers across the nation to ensure robust data privacy protections for all Americans."

Although most privacy advocates support the law, some expressed lingering concerns because it includes a few loopholes. Technology companies can, for example, "share" people's data even if a consumer bars them from selling it. And the law allows companies to charge higher prices to consumers who opt out of having their data sold.

"For the first time California is explicitly allowing 'pay for privacy' deals that are in direct contradiction to our privacy rights," Emily Rusch, executive director of the nonprofit California Public Interest Research Group, said in a statement.

While not as strict as the General Data Protection Requirements, the European Union's expansive privacy regulations that took effect last month, California's law provides some of the strongest regulations in the country.

posted by filthy light thief at 7:27 AM on December 27, 2018 [24 favorites]

So it turns out Trump didn't quite follow diplomatic niceties with Iraq for his little surprise visit, and this was a surprise to them as much as to the soldiers he visited.

And since they are trying to re-establish their sovereignty, they're miffed.

Well played, Individual 1. Well played indeed. So far he has endangered military personnel in Syria (by tweeting the retreat before carrying it out), Iraq, and Qatar. WHere next?
posted by ocschwar at 7:29 AM on December 27, 2018 [13 favorites]

> Maybe there was and the Cheeto ignored him/brushed him off.

This is a very likely scenario! I just naively thought that there might be limits to what the President could ask or tell the troops to do, but the U.S. military oath reads "I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will...obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice." So I guess as long as the order isn't flat-out unlawful, Trump or any other President can show up on a military base and order the troops to sing "Uptown Funk" to him for three hours, or build a giant sandcastle, or, you know, be photographed with him for a Twitter post even if it might endanger them or a compromise a military mission.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:40 AM on December 27, 2018

The Card Cheat: "Not to excuse Trump's fuck-up in any way, but...wouldn't/shouldn't there have been someone there from the military (i.e. somebody higher up the ladder than the troops he was photographed with) to say "hey, please don't take any photos of this group for security reasons"?"

I've not gotten complete confirmation but apparently SEAL Team 5 is different from the others, it's "white" vs their "black". Short story long, it's the one team whose location isn't generally classified. So the scandal wagon may have jumped the gun on this one.
posted by scalefree at 7:42 AM on December 27, 2018 [7 favorites]

And now in local (political) news: Michelle Lujan Grisham begins Cabinet appointments (Associated Press via Las Cruces Sun, Dec. 14, 2018)

Democratic New Mexico Gov.-elect Michelle Lujan Grisham has appointed Cabinet secretaries at three major agencies that oversee state finances, Medicaid and subsidized nutrition programs, and the regulation of energy and mining industries.

Lujan Grisham on Friday emphasized commitments to expanding the state’s clean-energy economy and shoring up health care access in announcing the Cabinet appointments.

Sarah Cottrell Propst will lead the state Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department that oversees oil and natural gas regulation and incentives for renewable energy.

Olivia Padilla-Jackson moves from Albuquerque city government to lead the New Mexico Department of Finance and Administration.

University of New Mexico medical professor David Scrase will lead the Human Services Department that administers some $7 billion in federal and state funds for Medicaid other services for low-income individuals and families.

Sarah Cottrell Propst most recently worked as executive director of Interwest Energy Alliance, a nonprofit trade association of renewable energy companies in six western states, including New Mexico. During the administration of Gov. Bill Richardson, Propst served as his energy and environment advisor, and then as deputy secretary of the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). She came to New Mexico after earning a master’s degree from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. (via NM Political Reporter Q&A, December 21, 2018)

Olivia Padilla-Jackson has managed public financial services for the State and a major NM city, Rio Rancho, in the past (via ABQ Journal, 2010), and David R. Scrase, MD, is a Board Certified Internist and David ScraseGeriatrician and is a Professor of Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, and the Chief of Geriatrics at University of New Mexico Medical School (via his UNM bio)

Yesterday, Governor-elect Lujan Grisham appointed four more Cabinet secretaries, and they all look like similarly skilled individuals, who have significant histories in New Mexico in the fields that they'll oversee, compared to the outgoing Republican governor, Susana Martinez, whose cabinet secretary picks were either from out-of-state or later accused of fraud, corruption, if not all of the above. Cabinet secretaries: Where are they now? (Steve Terrell for the Santa Fe New Mexican, Dec. 25, 2018)

To be clear, I don't think Dems are saints and the GOP are all grifter scum, as former New Mexico Democratic Governor Bill Richardson had his own corruption charges, but the current crop of GOP leadership just looks so rotten.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:44 AM on December 27, 2018 [15 favorites]

Buzzfeed's Zoe Tillman takes stock of Trump's first batch of judicial appointments: Trump’s New Judges Are Everything Conservatives Hoped For and Liberals Feared—Judges confirmed to federal appeals courts in the past two years are already staking out strong positions on guns, abortion, political speech, and agency power.

President Donald Trump has gotten more judges confirmed to federal appeals courts in his first two years in office than any president in modern history. With 30 new circuit judges on the bench, and a dozen nominees pending in the Senate, Trump has more than made good on a campaign promise to reshape the judiciary.[…]

There are 167 judgeships on the regional appeals courts, not counting senior judges who handle a smaller docket and don’t normally participate when the full court hears cases. Trump has already gotten 30 appeals judges confirmed, making up 18 percent of those seats. That’s how many appeals judges were confirmed during Obama’s entire first term.

Many could be there for decades. Trump’s first White House counsel Don McGahn placed a premium on younger nominees who would make the most of a lifetime appointment, and largely succeeded. Half of the 30 judges confirmed so far are in their 40s, and two just turned 40 this year.[…]

The new crop of appeals judges proved their conservative bona fides long before they were nominated. A review of their Senate questionnaires shows 24 of the 30 new appeals judges have been members of the Federalist Society[…]. Many also reported working for Republican elected officials and being members of the Republican National Lawyers Association.

Meanwhile, she reports, although the DOJ requested selected cases be put on hold during the shutdown, the judge in one of the cases challenging Trump's asylum ban has partly denied the request, noting how many immigration functions are still active.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:03 AM on December 27, 2018 [14 favorites]

In follow up news to the Georgia gubernatorial campaign, Michael Williams, the deportation bus candidate, has been indicted on insurance fraud charges related to the reported theft of $300,000 worth of bitcoin mining computers from his campaign headquarters. Apparently he still has his state senate seat for a couple of more weeks.
posted by TedW at 8:05 AM on December 27, 2018 [16 favorites]

McClatchy posts a potential bombshell: Cell signal puts Cohen outside Prague around time of purported Russian meeting

A mobile phone traced to President Donald Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer” Michael Cohen briefly sent signals ricocheting off cell towers in the Prague area in late summer 2016, at the height of the presidential campaign, leaving an electronic record to support claims that Cohen met secretly there with Russian officials, four people with knowledge of the matter say.

During the same period of late August or early September, electronic eavesdropping by an Eastern European intelligence agency picked up a conversation among Russians, one of whom remarked that Cohen was in Prague, two people familiar with the incident said.

The phone and surveillance data, which have not previously been disclosed, lend new credence to a key part of a former British spy’s dossier of Kremlin intelligence describing purported coordination between Trump’s campaign and Russia’s election meddling operation.[…]

The new information regarding the recovery of Cohen’s cell phone location doesn’t explain why he was apparently there or who he was meeting with, if anyone. But it adds to evidence that Cohen was in or near Prague around the time of the supposed meeting.

Both of the newly surfaced foreign electronic intelligence intercepts were shared with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, people familiar with the matter said.

n.b. "McClatchy reported in April 2018 that Mueller had obtained evidence Cohen traveled to Prague from Germany in late August or early September of 2016, but it could not be learned how that information was gleaned."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:11 AM on December 27, 2018 [60 favorites]

Bitcoin mining computers in his campaign HQ?

“See, we take the campaign donations, buy computers and walk out of here with our bank accounts stuffed with bitcoin.”

“It’s genius, sir. Genius.”

“Or we just lie to the insurance company.”

“Either way you’re golden, sir.”
posted by notyou at 8:12 AM on December 27, 2018 [14 favorites]

$300,000 worth of bitcoin mining computers

What a normal and prudent thing for a state political campaign to purchase.
posted by contraption at 8:12 AM on December 27, 2018 [56 favorites]

Further to the McClatchy scoop about Cohen's long-rumored Prague trip:

Four people spoke with McClatchy on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of information shared by their foreign intelligence connections. Each obtained their information independently from foreign intelligence connections.[…]

The cell phone evidence, the sources said, was discovered sometime after Cohen apparently made his way to the Czech Republic.

The records show that the brief activation from Cohen’s phone near Prague sent beacons that left a traceable electronic signature, said the four sources.

The SIGINT can't definitively pin down the timeframe Cohen was in the Prague region, but once again, the Steele Dossier's accuracy can't be dismissed outright.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:21 AM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

"To be clear, I don't think Dems are saints and the GOP are all grifter scum, as former New Mexico Democratic Governor Bill Richardson had his own corruption charges, but the current crop of GOP leadership just looks so rotten."

When Martinez first became governor, she signed a new code of conduct for state employees to stop the "revolving door." Most of her former cabinet secretaries, deputy secretaries, and division directors should technically not be able to work for organizations like say the NM Oil & Gas Association immediately after leaving office as the head of the NM Environment Department. There were a lot of ethics violations with these people. But, I don't think ethics mean much any more to a lot of people.
posted by BooneTheCowboyToy at 8:23 AM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

What a normal and prudent thing for a state political campaign to purchase.

From my reading, his personal business, mining bitcoins was located in the same building as his campaign. He pay or may not have owned the building.
posted by mikelieman at 8:27 AM on December 27, 2018 [2 favorites]

This seems timely, from Lawfare: The Steele Dossier: A Retrospective

The dossier compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele remains a subject of fascination—or, depending on your perspective, scorn. Indeed, it was much discussed during former FBI Director Jim Comey’s testimony in front of the House Judiciary Committee on Dec. 7. Published almost two years ago by BuzzFeed News in January 2017, the document received significant public attention, first for its lurid details regarding Donald Trump’s pre-presidential alleged sexual escapades in Russia and later for its role in forming part of the basis for the government’s application for a FISA warrant to surveil Carter Page.

Our interest in revisiting the compilation that has come to be called the “Steele Dossier” concerns neither of those topics, at least not directly. Rather, we returned to the document because we wondered whether information made public as a result of the Mueller investigation—and the passage of two years—has tended to buttress or diminish the crux of Steele’s original reporting.

posted by mumimor at 8:39 AM on December 27, 2018 [11 favorites]

It would be mighty interesting to see if his business or campaign paid the electrical bill generated by those miners.
posted by Static Vagabond at 8:42 AM on December 27, 2018 [29 favorites]

Good summary in today's NYT: Here are five stories [from this year] to help you understand Mr. Trump, and the New York he came from.
posted by Melismata at 9:02 AM on December 27, 2018 [8 favorites]

McClatchy posts a potential bombshell: Cell signal puts Cohen outside Prague around time of purported Russian meeting

My dude has never heard of a burner phone? It's kind of amusing to consider he could've avoided all this if he'd watched The Wire instead of Sopranos (and you *know* he watched Sopranos- they're all wannabe mafioso types.)
posted by bluecore at 9:08 AM on December 27, 2018 [23 favorites]

He probably was carrying it around turned off, realized he needed to reference some email or conversation stored on there, and figured it would be fine to turn it on for a sec as long as he was quick.
posted by contraption at 9:14 AM on December 27, 2018 [33 favorites]

Michael Cohen may not have been a smart man.
posted by adamg at 9:28 AM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

The new crop of appeals judges proved their conservative bona fides long before they were nominated.

In this context "bona fides" is entirely the wrong term to use. Good faith is not what they are about.
posted by srboisvert at 9:32 AM on December 27, 2018 [5 favorites]

My dude has never heard of a burner phone?

Bear in mind this is the same idiot who couldn't be bothered to set up separate shell companies for mistress payoffs and his ~~bribe-taking~~ "consulting" business. And he was* (allegedly) a lawyer, for whom that setup should have been a piece of cake.

* The moment Cohen pled guilty to a felony he was automatically disbarred in New York for a minimum of 7 years. He still shows up as a registered attorney if you search for him, but that's just record-keeping lag. The disbarment is automatic and unavoidable.
posted by jedicus at 9:38 AM on December 27, 2018 [34 favorites]

support for the Steele Dossier is really starting to pile up

Bad news for pee pee tape skeptics
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:41 AM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

Here are five stories [from this year] to help you understand Mr. Trump, and the New York he came from.
Much of which should've been reported TWENTY YEARS AGO (when I personally knew from two New York acquaintances that Trump was a crook). But maybe if they keep it up, the NYT will be able to finally divorce itself from Wall Street's hive of scum and villainy (which was the main reason for the Xmas Eve stock market super-rebound).
posted by oneswellfoop at 9:45 AM on December 27, 2018 [13 favorites]

Secret trips to Iraq were bullshit when Bush did them, they were bullshit when Obama did them, and they're bullshit now.

We invaded Iraq 15 years ago. If it's still not safe enough to announce a visit in advance, we have no business being there.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:53 AM on December 27, 2018 [13 favorites]

Workers Describe How They’re Trying to Survive the Trump Shutdown (Nathalie Baptiste, Mother Jones)

… federal workers, contractors, and others who face an indefinite period without a paycheck have taken to Twitter using the hashtag #ShutdownStories to share how it’s affecting their lives.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:53 AM on December 27, 2018 [14 favorites]

Static Vagabond: "It would be mighty interesting to see if his business or campaign paid the electrical bill generated by those miners."

Also whether he paid capital gains/income tax (whatever is appropriate) on his coins when selling.
posted by Mitheral at 9:56 AM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

End of Government Shutdown May Depend on the Definition of ‘Wall’

Whether Mr. Trump signs the bill might depend on whether he and Democrats can agree to disagree on what a border barrier is called. Democrats have accepted fencing in the past. Mr. Trump has taken to intermittently calling his barrier a wall or “aesthetically pleasing steel slats.”
...
Some Republicans have dismissed the distinction between fencing and wall and said a wall could be an improvement to barriers along portions of the border.

“The hard line of the Democrats is ridiculous,” said former Representative Jack Kingston, a Georgia Republican whose years on the House Appropriations Committee overlapped with a number of debates on border security. “You have to come to the table with something you want and something you’re willing to give.”

Maybe we're saying wall because Trump's been saying he would "build a great great wall on our southern border and I’ll have Mexico pay for that wall" for over two years.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:04 AM on December 27, 2018 [8 favorites]

Donald Trump Is Handing House Democrats a Loaded Gun (Paul Glastris, Washington Monthly)

Four years ago, we published a cover story, titled “The Big Lobotomy” [previously], which showed how today’s congressional gridlock and ineptitude can be traced to Newt Gingrich’s mid-‘90s revolution—in particular, his decision to radically reduce the number of congressional staffers and to centralized power in the leadership. Gingrich’s changes largely destroyed serious deliberation and oversight in Congress and led to an outsourcing of policy development to lobbyists and ideological think tanks. Congress lost its ability to think independently.

The story led to increased interest and advocacy in funding Congress and restoring these services, eventually leading to an additional $129 million to pay Congressional staff in an appropriations bill Trump signed in September.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:08 AM on December 27, 2018 [54 favorites]

… federal workers, contractors, and others who face an indefinite period without a paycheck have taken to Twitter using the hashtag #ShutdownStories to share how it’s affecting their lives.

WaPo reports on Trump's tweet this morning: Trump claims without evidence that ‘most of the people not getting paid’ in partial government shutdown are Democrats

"A [January 2018] survey by Government Executive of 1,791 federal employees from 25 agencies found that 24 percent of federal workers identified as Democrats, with an identical amount identifying as Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of workers in the 2018 survey said they were politically independent. Because the sample of employees was drawn from subscribers to Government Executive magazines, these numbers are not representative of the entire federal workforce."
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:13 AM on December 27, 2018 [10 favorites]

:> " “You have to come to the table with something you want and something you’re willing to give.”"

The opposition is fully on board with letting Mexico pay for the southern boondoggle.
posted by Mitheral at 10:14 AM on December 27, 2018 [10 favorites]

Maybe Trump meant that 'most of the people not getting paid' are going to start aligning as Democrats in response to the shutdown?
posted by Karmakaze at 10:33 AM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

Ray Walston, Luck Dragon: support for the Steele Dossier is really starting to pile up

Bad news for pee pee tape skeptics

Russians (and others) may also salt facts with fakes, to discredit the whole of a report, or to spread lies: Russian Hackers Are Using 'Tainted' Leaks to Sow Disinformation (Andy Greenberg for Wired, May 25, 2017)

OVER THE PAST year, the Kremlin's strategy of weaponizing leaks to meddle with democracies around the world has become increasingly clear, first in the US and more recently in France. But a new report by a group of security researchers digs into another layer of those so-called influence operations: how Russian hackers alter documents within those releases of hacked material, planting disinformation alongside legitimate leaks.

Which is to say that there may be fake info in the dossier to make the whole thing seem less credible, even though we're seeing more and more of it corroborated, years later.

WaPo reports on Trump's tweet this morning: Trump claims without evidence that ‘most of the people not getting paid’ in partial government shutdown are Democrats

Of course, because attacking those designated as his enemies plays well to his base, and that's all that matters.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:41 AM on December 27, 2018 [9 favorites]

ZeusHumms: Donald Trump Is Handing House Democrats a Loaded Gun (Paul Glastris, Washington Monthly)

Another pullquote, to clarify the title:

Soon after “The Big Lobotomy” came out, the Hewlett Foundation used it as a key source document in launching the Madison Initiative, a $50 million annual grant-making effort to encourage congressional and electoral reform. The Washington Monthly became one of the Madison Initiative’s first grantees and a hub for writers, scholars, and activists, both liberal and conservative, who have made the case that Congress should increase its budget for staff to boost its ability to deliberate and provide oversight. Two of our regular contributors, Lee Drutman of New America and Kevin Kosar of the R Street Institute, formed a group to hold briefings on the Hill directly making this case to members and staffers on both sides of the aisle. They found champions, including Republicans like Senator Mike Lee and Representative Kevin Yoder who, together with Democrats such as Representative Tim Ryan, got the funding increase for House and Senate staff—including for paid internships—into an appropriations bill Donald Trump signed in September.

This gives Democrats in the new Congress a lot more power. Staff are crucial for conducting the hearings and investigations necessary to hold the executive accountable, as well as for serious policymaking that isn’t outsourced to lobbyists. Both tasks will be essential if Democrats are to use their majority to help pull the country back from the brink of Trump-induced disaster. And in the long run, a well-staffed Congress is a more functional one, regardless of which party is in power.

Emphasis mine. Increased staffing isn't bad, unless you've been relying on it to run campaigns of grift and lies for decades, culminating with getting a Russian asset elected President, and then all your dirt can be made public, and your laws based on lies come to light.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:48 AM on December 27, 2018 [24 favorites]

The opposition is fully on board with letting Mexico pay for the southern boondoggle.

I understand that this is a poison pill offer, but the opposition really isn't on board for a wall no matter who pays for it. A wall across the southern border of a friendly country and ally is a terrible idea for many reasons.
posted by JackFlash at 10:50 AM on December 27, 2018 [29 favorites]

Well The Cheeto lost the popular vote by a significant margin (and his ratings outside core supporters have been going down since then). So it's likely that most in a 50%+1 sort of way are Democrats.
posted by Mitheral at 10:50 AM on December 27, 2018

Biden didn’t do much for Delaware the state, he did a lot for banks and insurance companies. Delaware has a lot of people in it who were hurt by his actions.

There is a chance that Delaware has more corporations than registered voters (~700,000).
posted by srboisvert at 10:53 AM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

Just to reflect that $5 billion would include $1.3 billion for current wall maintenance and staffing. The remainder would pay for about 100 miles of new border wall.

Which is to say, this has never been about building “the” wall, but about building a tiny stretch of it as another episode in Security Theatre.
posted by darkstar at 10:59 AM on December 27, 2018 [9 favorites]

support for the Steele Dossier is really starting to pile up

weeeeeeeeeeeee!
posted by pee tape at 11:00 AM on December 27, 2018 [61 favorites]

Some Republicans have dismissed the distinction between fencing and wall and said a wall could be an improvement to barriers along portions of the border.

It's Wall if he can stand in front of it and give a speech. (The point of reference here is the fashykitsch 2016 RNC set.)
posted by holgate at 11:03 AM on December 27, 2018 [3 favorites]

support for the Steele Dossier is really starting to pile up

As Marcy Wheeler repeatedly says, the idea of Steele's work as a reference narrative that somehow needs to be proven or disproven ought to go away, even if it won't because pee tape. The reference narrative is Mueller's prosecution documents, and at least since the GRU indictments tells us more about what was going on. Yes, its biggest gaps are in the period that Steele was working -- late summer to November of 2016 -- but they won't be filled in until the very end.
posted by holgate at 11:13 AM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

Posting this Atlantic article as a follow-up to my comment earlier in this thread regarding the need to rework the 25th Amendment:

Is Something Neurologically Wrong With Donald Trump?

There's absolutely no reason that there should not be an outside panel to assess the President's cognitive fitness for office on a yearly basis, with the report made publicly available. And given what we saw of the pressure placed on Ronny Jackson to give Trump a passing grade, the panel should also report on the President's physical fitness. If the VP/cabinet want to shirk their constitutional responsibilities concerning the President's health and fitness, we all should be aware of what they are choosing to ignore.
posted by longdaysjourney at 11:15 AM on December 27, 2018 [16 favorites]

WaPo reports on Trump's tweet this morning: Trump claims without evidence that ‘most of the people not getting paid’ in partial government shutdown are Democrats

Of course, because attacking those designated as his enemies plays well to his base, and that's all that matters.

It also means that as president he is making decisions based on his belief of their differential partisan impact. COMPLETELY IN THE OPEN.

Remember that the Republicans triggered an investigation of the IRS based on the flimsiest fabricated evidence of bias.
posted by srboisvert at 11:16 AM on December 27, 2018 [59 favorites]

longdaysjourney: There's absolutely no reason that there should not be an outside panel to assess the President's cognitive fitness for office on a yearly basis, with the report made publicly available.

Alternatively, when a president publicly flaunts norms and laws, he could be impeached and tried for his crimes, to remind everyone that no one is above the law.
posted by filthy light thief at 11:24 AM on December 27, 2018 [70 favorites]

You know, it occurs to me that it's in the Republicans' best interest to invoke the 25th now, which would allow Pence to choose a new VP. That way, if both Trump and Pence are implicated in the Mueller report, then they can impeach Pence without making Pelosi the President. The worst-case scenario for them now is pretty grim. I realize that they may be totally fine with letting both Trump and Pence get away with treason to prevent a President Pelosi, but if I were them, I still wouldn't want to be dealing with that particular set of choices.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 11:33 AM on December 27, 2018 [7 favorites]

Alternatively, when a president publicly flaunts norms and laws, he could be impeached and tried for his crimes, to remind everyone that no one is above the law.

That would require a Republican party that wasn't dedicated to covering up for and abetting the criminal actions and rule-breaking of a GOP President and a media that wasn't addicted to "both sides" false equivalence, neither of which currently exist in this dimension or are likely to come to pass.
posted by longdaysjourney at 11:52 AM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

"No one is above the law," like "the arc of history bends toward justice" and "America is good," will require some evidence before it can be stated as fact. As a statement right now it's akin to "we will certainly escape this burning house."
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:07 PM on December 27, 2018 [38 favorites]

You know, it occurs to me that it's in the Republicans' best interest to invoke the 25th now, which would allow Pence to choose a new VP.

It's been in their best interest to do that since January 21st, 2017. But the Republican Party is Trumpist to the point that any form of planning for a post-Trump America, or in any other way admitting that Trump may have a fault up to and including mortality, is blasphemy (and yes, I'm using that word intentionally).
posted by Etrigan at 12:08 PM on December 27, 2018 [7 favorites]

Creating and implementing an independent panel to assess the president's mental and physical fitness faces the same barriers. If we can fix the problems that are would prevent a panel like from being implemented congress would have already impeached the bastard and there would be no need.

An independent presidential mental/physical fitness panel is treating a symptom that wouldn't be there if we could treat the damn disease, white supremacy.

I do some "root cause analysis" for my job and one of the more helpful techniques for getting to the root cause of a particular problem is to ask "why" until the answers stop making sense and/or get ridiculous.

Problem, the president is mentally unfit to fulfill the duties of his office. Why?
Congress won't impeach him. Why?
They're beholden to an extreme and racist voter base. Why?
They vote for white supremacy.

I can't really explain why people are white supremacists though I'm sure we could put together some of the existing research and at least partially answer it but that's about as deep as we can get. You can do this same thing for most of the issues with the Trump admin and you'll pretty much always come back to racism and/or misogyny as the root cause.
posted by VTX at 12:12 PM on December 27, 2018 [15 favorites]

DHS secretary Kirstjen Nielsen on who is responsible for killing the children: you are.

As human rights groups, Democratic lawmakers, and the United Nations demanded an independent probe into the deaths of two Guatemalan children in US Border Patrol custody, President Donald Trump’s Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen sparked outrage on Wednesday by declaring that “open borders” advocates and the kids’ “own parents” — not Trump’s inhumane treatment of immigrants — are to blame.

“Our system has been pushed to a breaking point by those who seek open borders,” Nielsen said in a statement just hours after eight-year-old Felipe Alonzo-Gomez died in US custody on Christmas day.

Since childhood I've had nightmares that conflate my Cluster B Personality Disorder mother with Hitler. I've been waiting to wake up for years.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:23 PM on December 27, 2018 [32 favorites]

Giuliani: Trump won't give Mueller any more written answers

"I think I announced about 10 days ago 'over my dead body,' and I'm not dead yet,” Giuliani said, referencing a remark he made to "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace earlier this month.

That comment was made in response to a question Wallace asked about whether Trump would sit with Mueller for an in-person interview.

Days later, Giuliani told Axios that Trump's legal team "might agree" to providing Mueller with additional written responses to potential follow-up questions. "
posted by Twain Device at 12:33 PM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

whether Trump would sit with Mueller for an in-person interview.

Everyone but Trump knows that that interview, when it eventually happens, is going to send him to prison. Trump seems to think that he could just say, "hey, I'm a good guy; this is just how business works" and any actual crimes will be ignored. He also has absolutely no idea what activities are illegal. I can see him saying, "No collusion! No collusion! I had a call with some Russian guys and they said they'd buy some MAGA signs for me and post some articles online in order to show their interest in Trump Tower Moscow. We didn't collude on anything! And collusion isn't a crime anyway!"
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 12:47 PM on December 27, 2018 [8 favorites]

How Mark Burnett Resurrected Donald Trump as an Icon of American Success
subtitle: With “The Apprentice,” the TV producer mythologized Trump—then a floundering D-lister—as the ultimate titan, paving his way to the Presidency. (New Yorker)

I still give a share of the blame to NBC and cannot honestly believe there's enough of a firewall between News and Entertainment to keep the 'Apprentice tapes' secret without massive intervention by parent company Comcast.
posted by oneswellfoop at 12:59 PM on December 27, 2018 [57 favorites]

I was under the impression that the Apprentice tapes were in the possession of Mark Burnett's production company, not NBC.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:09 PM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

in one of our very rare and typically short 'discussions' about politics, way back during the campaign i said something about trump being an ignorant putz. my brother looks at me and says (in a calm, sincere voice) "Deb and I have watched The Apprentice for years and we have come to have great respect for Donald Trump."

i'd been telling that boy television was rotting his mind for 10 years by then. that was the moment i became sure of it.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 1:14 PM on December 27, 2018 [95 favorites]

From the very first episode of The Apprentice onward Trump was, to me and Mrs. VTX at least, very clearly a moron who didn't know what he was doing. Jr. was a guest judge sometimes and made his dad look like Warren Buffet by comparison. Ivanka was the only one that every pulled off anything close to a veneer of competence. Every subsequent season went downhill from there.

TV might have been the thing rotting his poor brain but if so it was only because his brain was particularly susceptible to rot.
posted by VTX at 1:22 PM on December 27, 2018 [3 favorites]

In the earliest seasons of The Apprentice Trump had two co-judges who were the adults in the room while he mugged it up and asked dumb questions and said "yer fired." That he replaced them with his dreadful idiot children should have told viewers everything they needed to know about his capacity for good leadership.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:31 PM on December 27, 2018 [24 favorites]

VTX: lol - you don't know the half of it! ain't going to hijack the thread but suffice it to say that my brother is a longtime limbaugh loon in good standing, one who currently RELIES upon the very social safety nets he would set afire. so yes, he's been deranged for a long time, and a sucker for 'reality' tv in any form.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 1:34 PM on December 27, 2018 [5 favorites]

More Americans blame Trump for government shutdown: Reuters/Ipsos poll

"Forty-seven percent of adults hold Trump responsible, while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress, according to the Dec. 21-25 poll, conducted mostly after the shutdown began. Seven percent of Americans blamed congressional Republicans.[…]

"Just 35 percent of those surveyed in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they backed including money for the wall in a congressional spending bill. Only 25 percent said they supported Trump shutting down the government over the matter."
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:00 PM on December 27, 2018 [6 favorites]

@MichaelCohen212: I hear #Prague #CzechRepublic is beautiful in the summertime. I wouldn’t know as I have never been. #Mueller knows everything!
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:06 PM on December 27, 2018

It sure seems like McClatchy are going to come out of this Cohen/Prague thing looking like journalistic powerhouses or complete credulous idiots. I don't see much middle ground at this point. Nobody else will touch it with a 10 foot poll and they keep doubling down on there being a bunch of strong evidence for it.
posted by Justinian at 2:07 PM on December 27, 2018 [5 favorites]

while 33 percent blame Democrats in Congress [...] Only 25 percent said they supported Trump shutting down the government over the matter.

25% of eligible voters voted for Trump in 2016.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:15 PM on December 27, 2018 [11 favorites]

Before Christmas this quote from a 2015 Mick Mulvaney radio interview was bouncing around (on CNN for example):

MERCER: Immigration. Donald Trump says build a wall. Deport all illegal immigrants. Rules are rules.

MULVANEY: I've never been in the boxcar caucus. You know, ship them home in boxcars and let the Lord sort them out. The fence is an easy thing to sell politically. It's an easy thing for someone who doesn't follow the issue very closely to say, oh well, that'll just solve everything, build the fence.

As it's some particularly clear evidence that Republicans were entirely conscious that they were voting in 2016 for a re-run of the Holocaust, Mulvaney now enjoying the role of Chief of Staff of the Boxcar White House, I figured I'd track down the specifics for posterity: this was broadcast by station WRHI on August 25, 2015 as an episode of the program Closeup with interviewer Patti Mercer. The above quote starts 8 minutes in.

(Internet Archive link, although the IA site is indicating that robots.txt rules don't allow them to display the actual .mp3 audio of the interview.)

Another damning hilarious-terrible quote from the interview: That's what concerns me—I wonder who's more interested in going around the Constitution to get things done, Barack Obama or Donald Trump!
posted by XMLicious at 2:36 PM on December 27, 2018 [8 favorites]

So there may or may not be a pee tape but there definitely is a selfie. A nude one. No idea whose nude body was selfied but none of the obvious choices makes this an appealing prospect.

@bradheath Lawyers for a Russian company charged over election complain that "the Special Counsel has made up a crime that has never been prosecuted before in the history of the United States, and now seeks to make up secret procedures for communicating ex parte to the court."

@bradheath Lawyers for the Russian company - who are seeking permission to share "sensitive" gov't info with the Russians wonder: "Could the manner in which [Mueller] collected a nude selfie really threaten the national security of the United States?"

@bradheath Also, apparently, among the millions of pages of records Mueller's has collected on Russian election interference is a "nude selfie."

@bradheath Here's the whole filing. Spoiler: It doesn't give away whose nude selfie Mueller now possesses, or how he obtained it. ->
posted by scalefree at 2:44 PM on December 27, 2018 [14 favorites]

It doesn't give away whose nude selfie Mueller now possesses, or how he obtained it.

Oh, man. A very masculinity-shattering pic of Putin would pretty much be the end-game against Trump. “Here, Mr. Mueller. Everything you need, wanted, or wished for.”
posted by Thorzdad at 2:53 PM on December 27, 2018

I truly do not want to see a nude selfie of anyone involved in any way with this administration, and I'm also having trouble coming up with a situation in which a nude selfie is going to be incriminating enough to matter.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:00 PM on December 27, 2018 [22 favorites]

I now understand the reasoning behind the extraordinary security required for last week's mysterious hearing. I cannot express enough gratitude for everyone involved, sparing the world of the horror intrinsic to this image. This is Chekov's Gun writ large upon the stage, a Sword of Damacles balanced over our collective necks. This is a thing that must remain secret; no matter the cost, it must be paid.
posted by scalefree at 3:06 PM on December 27, 2018 [25 favorites]

We are well past the "surely this" point and are now riding a tsunami of garbage to destinations unknown. The question is not "how does the nude selfie advance the investigation," but rather, from which deeply submerged bolus of heretofore occulted horrors did the nude selfie detach and float up to us, and what will follow it? I'm going to go take a little walk in the sunshine right now, god bless you all.
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:07 PM on December 27, 2018 [69 favorites]

I think the point here is whatever evidence they have was collected using "National Technical Means", and disclosing how they got it would disclose the classified program that collected it. Mueller does NOT just make things up, regardless of how the GOP and Russians spin it.
posted by mikelieman at 3:10 PM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

about 9,800 detained migrant children are in facilities holding 100-plus total kids, including Tornillo [TX] and Homestead [FL].

Homestead.

When we come to make the documentary, this absolutely bleakest of ironies has to be its title.
posted by Devonian at 3:12 PM on December 27, 2018 [22 favorites]

"tornillo" also means "screw."

Screw - Prison Officer – probably originating from a Victorian form of punishment involving a wheel to be turned on which a screw could be turned to make it more or less difficult.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:17 PM on December 27, 2018 [5 favorites]

I now understand the reasoning behind the extraordinary security required for last week's mysterious hearing.

Pretty sure that's a different case...this has to be one of the two cases where russians were previously indicted, and they're trying to demand that the US turn over all of its evidence to them so they can compose their defense. The secret grand jury panel was about opposing production of evidence to Mueller.
posted by SpaceBass at 3:18 PM on December 27, 2018 [1 favorite]

I dunno, a nude selfie of Donald (and, really, how much of a narcissist do you have to be to imagine Photo of a Nude Fat Old Man is a turn-on for anyone outside a select group of fetishists? I say this as a nu...as a fat old man) sent to someone akin to our friend Butina, with associated discussion between them some time later demonstrating that the wretched thing was being used as kompromat ("hey, gherkin, Pravda can either feature the 'presidential' privates on the front page tomorrow...or news of US sanctions being lifted. Which do you think it should be?") would be pretty damning.

Hell, a President reckless and stupid enough to send noods in our society* should, in and of itself, reason enough to oust them from office.

* I would rather live in a society which doesn't give a rat's fuck about what consenting people (all parties involved need to consent, obvs) do with their bodies, but we live in Puritanica.
posted by maxwelton at 3:22 PM on December 27, 2018 [7 favorites]

and I'm also having trouble coming up with a situation in which a nude selfie is going to be incriminating enough to matter.

While I agree, remember that nude selfies are what probably cost Clinton the election. (As did a lot of other things obviously, given the closeness of the race).
posted by Justinian at 3:29 PM on December 27, 2018 [3 favorites]

Let's not go nude selfie crazy y'all.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:31 PM on December 27, 2018 [22 favorites]

Tyrant! We should be allowed at least as many nude selfie comments as there were for that year-old interview with Joe Biden.
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:32 PM on December 27, 2018 [52 favorites]

Justinian- you mean the Anthony Weiner investigation which turned up the laptop with the extra EMAILS right before the election?

That's a funny butterfly flapping its wings sort of explanation for how we got here. If only a time traveler could go back in time and stop Anthony Weiner... the world would never suspect what a bullet had been dodged.
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:35 PM on December 27, 2018 [11 favorites]

The Government May Be Shut Down, But Taxpayers Are Footing The Bill For Mar-a-Lago Party Tents

At loggerheads with Congress over funding his signature border wall, president Donald Trump shut down large swaths of the federal government at midnight on Friday. Roughly 800,000 federal employees are affected, many of whom will remain on furlough without pay if the shutdown continues.

But even as much of the federal government grinds to a halt, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort still needs tents for the winter party season—and taxpayers are footing at least $54,000 of the bill.

According to government spending data, Grimes Events & Party Tents Inc. of Delray Beach, Florida was paid $54,020 by the U.S. Secret Service on December 19 for “TENT RENTAL FOR MAL.”

An employee named Honey who answered the phone at Grimes Events & Party Tents told Quartz, “We are providing tents for the Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve party, yes.”

This is going to end so well.
posted by scalefree at 3:54 PM on December 27, 2018 [40 favorites]

Starting next week, Maxine Waters will chair the House Financial Services Committee, so exchanges like this will probably stop happening
posted by growabrain at 3:58 PM on December 27, 2018 [41 favorites]

Eric "nude selfie" Dubelier, Concord's lead lawyer in this case, is being paid by whoever's paying him to troll Mueller, be a condescending dick in his briefs, and hog some headlines. And he seems to be enjoying it.
posted by holgate at 4:21 PM on December 27, 2018 [2 favorites]

Mike Luckovich: 7 year old who still believe in Santa
posted by growabrain at 4:28 PM on December 27, 2018 [3 favorites]

to be clear, being a dick in briefs does not technically constitute a nude selfie
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 4:38 PM on December 27, 2018 [28 favorites]

Seen at Costco
posted by growabrain at 4:51 PM on December 27, 2018 [41 favorites]

Cell signal puts Cohen outside Prague around time of purported Russian meeting

I have to think the US already had this data (although maybe it hadn't reached Mueller) and it has only been made public now in order for one side or the other to shape the public narrative.

A lot of SIGINT sources seem to have been burned over the past couple of years, the most egregious being Turkey's release of tapes apparently recording Khashoggi's last moments, and the CIA releasing (via Turkey) an intercepted conversation between the Saudi Ambassador to the USA and his brother, MBS. So basically there's no longer even a pretence that “Gentlemen do not read each others' mail.”

This change is probably inevitable, even desirable at this point, because if you've been thoroughly penetrated what's the point of concealing the fact? All you're doing is empowering your enemy by lulling your defenses into a false state of security. It's like 9/11: you can't resist multi-fronted attacks if everybody is keeping their security concerns compartmentalised.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:59 PM on December 27, 2018 [8 favorites]

Don't be too literal with the "nude selfie" phrasing. Imagine a known Russian agent taking a selfie at a party with Individual-1 and a couple of nude models (or something like that). That gets you "nude" and "selfie" and "compromising" without having to go to any great mental effort to figure out the "what were they thinking".

To add another data point, you can literally pay to get a nude woman painted with your company's logo to walk the aisles at trade shows in Russia (at least at oil & gas trade shows ... or, *ahem*, so I'm told). Thereby you could easily get your "nude selfie" standing beside her.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 6:11 PM on December 27, 2018 [4 favorites]

John Mulaney's analogy for the Trump White House:
This guy being the president, it's like there's a horse loose in a hospital. I think eventually everything's going to be OK, but I have no idea what's going to happen next. And neither do any of you, and neither do your parents, because there's a horse loose in the hospital. That's never happened before! No one knows what the horse is going to do next, least of all the horse. He's never been in the hospital before, he's just as confused as you are
posted by growabrain at 7:05 PM on December 27, 2018 [82 favorites]

A lot of SIGINT sources seem to have been burned over the past couple of years, the most egregious being Turkey's release of tapes apparently recording Khashoggi's last moments...

Just to be pedantic, that was very likely not sigint but would be considered humint. It was likely not scraping and than filtering a large volume of data but instead very focused and deliberate. The CIA one, likewise. It isn’t just academic; targetted surveillance is pretty different from a social-impact point of view.
posted by Bovine Love at 7:34 PM on December 27, 2018 [2 favorites]

From WaPo “Vacant Halls, Angry Tweets, Zero Progress:

Trump, in one of a series of Twitter attacks on Democrats, claimed that the dispute isn’t even about the wall he long claimed Mexico would pay for. “This is only about the Dems not letting Donald Trump & the Republicans have a win,” he wrote.

So... you need for Democrats to let you win, Donald?

That right there is weak.

If you’re confrontational and opposed to compromise that is.

As you are.
posted by skyscraper at 8:25 PM on December 27, 2018 [25 favorites]

Calm down, everyone. Trump just exposed the location and identities of Navy Seal Team 5 on Twitter. It’s not like he did something really dangerous like use a private email server while female
posted by growabrain at 9:17 PM on December 27, 2018 [38 favorites]

Grimes Events & Party Tents Inc.

after that brief period at the nuke plant, frank found his niche in tents.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 10:32 PM on December 27, 2018 [21 favorites]

is it normal for lawyers to be so belligerent

No. Eric Dubelier has a reputation -- he came out of Harry Connick Sr's utterly corrupt NOLA prosecution shop, then became a defense lawyer for companies accused of dodgy foreign shit. But the backstory on this is that Dubelier and Seikaly showed up to say they were representing the corporate entity that is Concord Consulting & Management LLC -- even as Yevgeny Prigozhin has dodged jurisdiction -- and they've engaged in trollish lawfare against Mueller ever since. Every defendant has the right to counsel, but Dubelier is being opaquely paid to be as much of a dick as possible either to provoke a mistake from Mueller's team (whose lead appellant lawyer is Michael Dreeben, considered the best appellant lawyer in the USA) or some kind of sympathy from Judge Dabney Friedrich, or at very least make Mueller's office work overtime to reply to those briefs.

In short, the lawyers for the troll factory are trolling.
posted by holgate at 11:21 PM on December 27, 2018 [36 favorites]

That said, Mueller opened the door to lawfare by indicting Concord in the assumption that, as with the GRU indictments, nobody would show up to defend those indicted: Dubelier has forced the SCO to put in a lot of hours. But he's retained under the instruction to be as much of a spanner in the works as possible on behalf of a shell entity for the St Petersburg-based trolling operation. So it's worth wondering who's paying his very substantial bills.
posted by holgate at 11:26 PM on December 27, 2018 [15 favorites]

We got that in Portland, Oregon too.
posted by msalt at 1:18 AM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

Boston Globe: “Internet outage is affecting wireless 911 calls in Mass.”
posted by Melismata at 4:12 AM on December 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

This morning's tweets:

We will be forced to close the Southern Border entirely if the Obstructionist Democrats do not give us the money to finish the Wall & also change the ridiculous immigration laws that our Country is saddled with. Hard to believe there was a Congress & President who would approve!

....The United States looses soooo much money on Trade with Mexico under NAFTA, over 75 Billion Dollars a year (not including Drug Money which would be many times that amount), that I would consider closing the Southern Border a “profit making operation.” We build a Wall or.....

.....close the Southern Border. Bring our car industry back into the United States where it belongs. Go back to pre-NAFTA, before so many of our companies and jobs were so foolishly sent to Mexico. Either we build (finish) the Wall or we close the Border......

.....Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador are doing nothing for the United States but taking our money. Word is that a new Caravan is forming in Honduras and they are doing nothing about it. We will be cutting off all aid to these 3 countries - taking advantage of U.S. for years!

'Profit making operation.'
posted by box at 5:16 AM on December 28, 2018 [7 favorites]

Don't negotiate with terrorists.
posted by thelonius at 5:30 AM on December 28, 2018 [39 favorites]

:> "....The United States looses soooo much money on Trade with Mexico under NAFTA, over 75 Billion Dollars a year (not including Drug Money which would be many times that amount), that I would consider closing the Southern Border a “profit making operation.” "

Why the fuck would you sign NAFTA II: Electric Boogaloo then? Cripes that was less than three Scaramuccis ago.
posted by Mitheral at 5:38 AM on December 28, 2018 [36 favorites]

He's even calling it NAFTA, like he's completely forgotten his own new name for the new deal. This rant is clearly dementia.
posted by infini at 5:48 AM on December 28, 2018 [26 favorites]

I guess John Mulaney is a fan of Dr. Octagon.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 6:26 AM on December 28, 2018 [10 favorites]

Today’s rant is basically his standard campaign stump speech. It worked in ‘16, blew up in his face in ‘18, and for ‘19, it’s double-down time.
posted by notyou at 6:29 AM on December 28, 2018 [1 favorite]

I would love love love to have a West Coast media player in the national scene but I can’t think of a single candidate that isn’t owned by Sinclair or some equivalently-awful local entity.

Ever hear of the LA Times? They do some very good national reporting and have a recently unionized newsroom. New owner is a biotech billionaire, which isn't great but certainly no worse than Bezos.
posted by contraption at 6:29 AM on December 28, 2018 [33 favorites]

WaPo, Trump used her slain daughter to rail against illegal immigration. She chose a different path. Just an extraordinary story about Mollie Tibbetts' mother.
posted by zachlipton at 7:43 AM on December 28, 2018 [24 favorites]

The parents of Mollie could not have more forcefully said DO NOT POLITICIZE THIS, YOU GHOULS and the ghouls fuckin' did it anyway. Disgusting. Article on the father.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:45 AM on December 28, 2018 [11 favorites]

Claire McCaskill’s Bitter Farewell (Christina Cauterucci, Slate)

Since she lost her bid for a third term as a U.S. senator from Missouri, Claire McCaskill has been trashing the left to anyone who’ll listen. She’s insulted Democrats who wanted her to be a more vocal critic of the president, Senate colleagues who questioned her opposition to banking regulations, and progressives who try to push their more moderate representatives to the left. In recent days, she’s expressed even more pointed ire for young women, abortion-rights activists, and voters excited by upstarts like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

See Claire McCaskill's CNN Interview from Monday.

It’s anyone’s guess what McCaskill expects to gain from this bridge-burning farewell tour, especially since she hasn’t divulged any definitive post-Senate plans. (If she intends to run for office in Missouri again, she may be hoping that independents and moderate Republicans will be won over by her harsh words for members of her own party.) But the school of thought she’s promoting—one that blames progressives as much as conservatives for Democrats’ electoral losses—crystallizes the discomfort many prominent establishment Democrats have been feeling as they struggle to respond to calls for bold progressive policies while searching for a message that will resonate with voters who defected from Obama to Trump.
…
McCaskill’s theory of electable moderation—and her belittling of those who contravene it—betrays a vision of leadership that’s massively ill-equipped for the challenges and threats of today’s political climate.
…
But politicians who laud incremental, bipartisan, widely popular accomplishments while scoffing at more-sweeping, riskier legislative goals that could do far more good have no right to be angry when advocates for those goals are hailed as the future of a political party.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:48 AM on December 28, 2018 [8 favorites]

It looks like she's auditioning for Alan Colmes's old job as the "Democrat" on Fox news?
posted by cmfletcher at 7:57 AM on December 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

Looking for good West Coast news sources? The McClatchy Group is doing a good job at this journalism thing at several papers in the less-large markets of California and Washington (one of which has been targeted by Devin Nunes personally, but remains unbowed), and they have a DC bureau for the group that has given me (as a resident in one of their papers' area) better coverage of the Trumpsters than anybody centered in that other coast. I fully support their 'local news'.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:00 AM on December 28, 2018 [16 favorites]

It was already amazing how the "Democrats are too far left to win elections" framing somehow persists through sweeping Democratic electoral victories, but hearing a centrist Dem who got her butt kicked in the midterms telling lefties who won the House that they're unelectable and she isn't just makes my head hurt.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:20 AM on December 28, 2018 [95 favorites]

But the school of thought she’s promoting—one that blames progressives as much as conservatives for Democrats’ electoral losses

Sorry Claire, the Democrats absolutely cleaned House (literally!) in the last election. It's not your fault Missouri has been on an out-of-step bend to the right, but quite frankly it's a miracle you won six years ago in that state. In hindsight, it was really predictable based on demographic trends alone that Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana were going to be very hard to win (and to that point, exit interviews with Heitkamp are far more palatable, in that she gets it and McCaskill clearly does not).

Florida was the big WTF loss for the Dems, but then Florida is basically the embodiment of WTF. Other than that, it was a wave election.

Expect Missouri to remain red for some time, as much of the state has gone all in on the Ignorance Machine. "Progressives" have nothing to do with that.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:36 AM on December 28, 2018 [20 favorites]

Didn’t McCaskill win only because her opponent defended rape or something like that?

Meanwhile, in part 973 of Republicans vs. Democracy, Mark Harris - the guy who “won” a North Carolina congressional race by hiring a convicted fraudster to stuff the ballot box with fake absentee ballots — filed an emergency petition for the state election board to certify him this morning, minutes before it is forced under a court order to dissolve itself.
posted by msalt at 8:54 AM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

Re; that "nude selfie" brief -- is it normal for lawyers to be so belligerent [see the first para after the intro -- refers to a "make-believe" case, accuses opposition of "getting away with" stuff, etc.] in that kind of document? What is a "squinch" of evidence, or whatever it is they are talking about? Do lawyers often ask, in legal documents, "what the heck" their opponents are thinking? IANAL, but things have been stated in other ways in the legal documents I have seen. What is going on here?

I'm a lawyer. The short answer is no, it's extremely uncommon, and you're most likely to see stuff like it from the most bottom-feeding/incompetent lawyers. It's terrible advocacy if your goal is to persuade the court. It's likely not over the line into sanctionable by any stretch (especially since almost nothing ever gets sanctioned), but it might get an admonishment from the judge, and does active harm to chances of winning the motion.

Having read it, and giving the benefit of the doubt that the lawyers are not incompetent (which yes, is not a given, but they do cite to case law competently and have correct formatting, etc., so other signs point to competence) I assume that the primary goal of the brief was to be a public document that could be cited by the press and/or read by the public. It's PR masquerading as a legal brief.
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 9:03 AM on December 28, 2018 [44 favorites]

it might get an admonishment from the judge, and does active harm to chances of winning the motion. ... It's PR masquerading as a legal brief.

This, exactly. They know they're going to lose, so they're laying down "Just look at how we were 'admonished' by this biased activist judge for what we said! I thought this was AMERICA where we have FREEDOM OF SPEECH!" for the rubes.
posted by Etrigan at 9:14 AM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

It’s anyone’s guess what McCaskill expects to gain from this bridge-burning farewell tour, especially since she hasn’t divulged any definitive post-Senate plans

Getting a head start on her new career as a FOX News contributor and lobbyist for Third Way / Problem Solvers / No Labels. This is well trod ground for post-Senate defeated conservadems like Evan Bayh.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:19 AM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

Democrats’ electoral losses

Someone didn't see the same election the rest of us did. In almost every respect other than net Senate change, Democrats had very, very good electoral results in 2018. They did quite well in state-level offices across the board, had historic pickups in the House, and had some success building a warm-up bench of local office-holders throughout the nation. Even when it came to the Senate, the fact of the matter is that they won two-thirds of the elections that were happening (including some ones which were far from easy, like Arizona) and the net loss is more indicative of surprise gains and holds six years ago (including McCaskill's seat) than of any sort of bad strategy, bad positioning, or bad candidates (OK, Bill Nelson was an authentically bad candidate, but he was an incumbent and a moderate, so I'm not sure how that plays into the narrative of the party putting forward hopeless naïve progressive upstarts).

Bummer about your job, Claire, but "bad for you" is not quite the same thing as "bad for us".
posted by jackbishop at 9:23 AM on December 28, 2018 [57 favorites]

I knocked like 1000x doors for her. I can tell you that the campaign staff and volunteers felt a little irritated at her centrism, and David Kirby is partially responsible, too. Missouri has 3 years to get it together and get Roy Blunt a decent challenger. We've got good talent in the STL area, but they're unknown outside of here and doing a really good job in their current spots, that we don't want to lose them (Bruce Franks Jr, Jamilah Nasheed, Lacy Clay). I guess we could find a Carnahan in storage, if we needed to.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 9:28 AM on December 28, 2018 [19 favorites]

My fantasy league would be Clay vs Blunt, Franks Jr in Clay's seat, and Antonio French in Franks seat.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 9:30 AM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

The Powerful Role Confusion Plays In American Elections (Kira Lerner, TPM)

As laws making it harder to vote spread across the country, an additional and often unnoticed barrier comes with them: confusion. Georgia wasn’t the only state that created chaos and uncertainty at the ballot box. Similar scenarios played out this year in parts of Missouri and Florida. Two of 2018’s most competitive gubernatorial elections may have swung on voter confusion.

“Anything that causes confusion is a form of voter suppression, whether it’s intentional or whether it’s just unintended consequences,” said Cliff Albright, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, a nonprofit organization focused on voter outreach across the South.

The United States’ byzantine election system is governed by overlapping rules on the county, state, and federal levels. Elections in different states and even different cities are held on different days, with polling places in varying locations and voting hours that change from one year to the next.

Together, the laws and procedures result in a chaos that undermines faith in election, and that is easily exploited by politicians in the name of election integrity.
...

Of all the issues with U.S. elections, the fact that voters are disenfranchised by a confusing system might be the hardest to fix. After all, confusion is both a byproduct of a broken election system and a deliberate mechanism of restricting the electorate.

Confusion stems from countless poorly designed laws and regulations on the local, state, and federal level. It stems from poorly trained poll workers and understaffed election departments. It stems both from lawmakers who wish to confuse and lawmakers who want to undo that confusion and end up causing even more in the process.

Together, it’s resulted in a country where voters have lost faith in elections.

Still, experts say solutions are possible.
…

When asked about potential solutions, [Cliff Albright], of Black Voters Matter, laughed. “Just revamping all of American democracy, no big deal,” he said. He explained that first and foremost, Americans need to recognize that elections can and should be less complicated.

“In what’s supposed to be the greatest democracy in the world. This just shouldn’t exist.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:07 AM on December 28, 2018 [35 favorites]

In almost every respect other than net Senate change, Democrats had very, very good electoral results in 2018

Yeah I feel like we shouldn’t gloss over this, though. Claire McCaskill’s extended televised audition for a Republican grifter’s payday aside, the problems in the Senate are deeply structural and fundamentally undemocratic. If we don’t a) take back the Senate in 2020 AND b) add a few states like DC, Puerto Rico, etc (and maybe even take some other measures) we’re looking at an entrenched tyranny of the minority in the next 5-10 years.

The Senate is a problem that won’t go away. Fixing it has to be part of the discussion. I feel like people shy away from it because it seems like an insurmountable problem, but that’s what shifting the Overton window is for.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:08 AM on December 28, 2018 [45 favorites]

In hindsight, it was really predictable based on demographic trends alone that Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana were going to be very hard to win

Donnelly was never going to survive the 2018 election. Straight up the only reason he won in 2012 was because the Republicans ran Richard Mourdock, who stuck his foot in his mouth regarding rape and abortion. Absent that horrific asininity, we'd have elected him and Donnelly would have been forgotten. 2018 was less a Democratic loss and more a reversion to the norm.
posted by Pope Guilty at 10:25 AM on December 28, 2018 [8 favorites]

Buttigieg isn't running for SB mayor again. Indiana doesn't have a senate seat up until 2022. Hmmm.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 10:32 AM on December 28, 2018 [3 favorites]

Straight up the only reason he won in 2012 was because the Republicans ran Richard Mourdock, who stuck his foot in his mouth regarding rape and abortion.

It was only six years ago that a GOP candidate could be sunk by pro-rape comments. Todd Akin would have cruised to victory in '18.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:40 AM on December 28, 2018 [17 favorites]

Josh Hawley blamed trafficking on the birth control pill...yep.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 10:50 AM on December 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

[Politico]
What Will History Books Say About 2018?
16 top historians predict the future.
Which prediction do you think will prevail?
posted by growabrain at 11:08 AM on December 28, 2018

Hmmm im not seeing seizing the means of production and the assets of the handful of oligarchs responsible for setting the world on fire
posted by The Whelk at 11:15 AM on December 28, 2018 [62 favorites]

In sum, I think this is not a super common thing, but it's not unheard of, either...

I'm not a lawyer, but I work with a lot of them, and, yeah, there are some lawyers out there who do not know how to turn off the aggro. In fact, I've even had a lawyer threaten to send me a nude selfie!
posted by Karmakaze at 12:32 PM on December 28, 2018

Just wow. CNN: Migrant Children's Deaths One Reason President Wants to Fix Broken Immigration System
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:44 PM on December 28, 2018 [11 favorites]

It’s anyone’s guess what McCaskill expects to gain from this bridge-burning farewell tour

Maybe if “moderate” Susan Collins finds her way to the ranks of the unemployed in 2020, they can start a new political party together.
posted by Brak at 1:00 PM on December 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

Daily Beast's Sam Stein: Team Trump Gleeful That Shutdown Will Hijack Pelosi’s Big Moment—The president’s aides see a debate being waged on his issues, not hers, and they couldn’t be happier.

“The more the focus is on the wall, the more Pelosi is forced to focus on this fight instead of the investigations,” said one source close to the White House, expressing a sentiment shared with The Daily Beast by three other individuals allied with Trump. “It’s a situation where [Trump] has no choice but to shut it down. It’s the best of the worst choices. It’s really the only choice [because] I think there are people who would vote for him today who might not if he gave in too quickly."

The White House press office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But two people who’ve spoken with Trump about the shutdown—one during and the other just before it began—said the president believes the politics have been a boon for him and a potential humiliation for the Democrats. One of these sources said Trump has privately predicted that Democratic politicians are “screwing themselves” with voters by resisting his hard-line, restrictionist immigration policies, and not signing on to his wall.

Another top adviser said internal polling showed illegal immigration was a galvanizing issue for the suburban women voters Republicans had lost in the midterm elections. Trump and the Republican Party’s strategy leading up to those midterm elections had relied heavily on overhyping fears about asylum seekers on the southern border. That nativist touch ultimately proved ineffective in helping the GOP hold on to its House majority, though the adviser insisted that the messaging was simply overshadowed by other issues, including health care.[…]

“I don’t think [the White House] thought it out strategically,” said one former Trump aide. “It is something Trump fell into and got lucky. He’s a lucky guy in a lot of ways.”

Stein notes, "Also, a senior administration official tells me that Trump would be open to talks about a DACA-Wall deal again. Though no one thinks it will go anywhere"

As for shutdown negotiations, Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) asked rhetorically on CNN, "Who is the negotiator on the executive branch of government that we can deal with? It's not the vice president. It's not the chief of staff. It's not the OMB director, and apparently it's not even Trump. He'll change his mind on a dime." He also stayed on message about the economic damage the Trump Shutdown will do: "I think the president lives in this delusional world fed by FOX News and a couple of right-wing talking heads and does not connect actions with consequences. So if you close the border, you're going to re-invite huge swings in the stock market. You're going to jeopardize the economic progress we've made, and you're frankly going to do a lot of damage to your own prospects for 2020 by inviting a recession. "
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:21 PM on December 28, 2018 [32 favorites]

Delusional. “Nobody’s talking about Nancy Pelosi’s issues” because she hasn’t taken the gavel yet and she hasn’t put them forward yet.
posted by notyou at 1:27 PM on December 28, 2018 [23 favorites]

I did find Lizabeth Cohen's both siderism followed by an admonishment that if American Nazism breaks out that it's our fault to be ... special.
posted by Candleman at 1:27 PM on December 28, 2018

@joebrunowsoc9: BREAKING: Rep @StenyHoyer tells @wsoctv that Mark Harris will NOT be seated on Jan 3. “Given the now well-documented election fraud that took place in #NC09, Democrats would object to any attempt by Mr. Harris to be seated on January 3." #ncpol @wsoctv

@daveweigel: If the House doesn't want to seat a candidate, he doesn't get seated. Dems aren't trying to install the Dem candidate; they're just not going to recognize the election results, given the fraud case. Either Harris wins a special or he's not a congressman.
posted by zachlipton at 1:43 PM on December 28, 2018 [61 favorites]

I'm pretty sure that Nancy Pelosi can handle more than one thing at a time, but I can see how it might be hard for Trumpies to understand the concept.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:44 PM on December 28, 2018 [72 favorites]

Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA)

I don't understand what this feeling is. It's like...it feels good? To see someone on TV acknowledging and then accurately describing reality?
posted by schadenfrau at 1:58 PM on December 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

The other "stolen election" news is the always classy Paul LePage certified the results of Jared Golden's ranked choice vote victory in Maine's 2nd congressional district with a passive aggressive note of protest.
posted by peeedro at 2:01 PM on December 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

Pelosi Names Douglas N. Letter New General Counsel of the House
posted by growabrain at 2:11 PM on December 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

Key players in new fight over Trump tax returns:
Pelosi, Bill Pascrell & Richard Neal VS. Trump, Mnuchin & Grassley
posted by growabrain at 2:24 PM on December 28, 2018 [3 favorites]

A Woman's Rights: More and more laws are treating a fetus as a person, and a woman as less of one, as states charge pregnant women with crimes...
posted by homunculus at 2:34 PM on December 28, 2018 [28 favorites]

This popped up in my Facebook feed and I thought I’d share.

Thank You, Mr. President [Trump]: Gratitude for a wonderful year.

At this time of year, it’s always comforting to bring a sense of closure and serenity by looking back and reminding ourselves what progress has been made in advancing the human condition. It gives us a chance to look ahead to the coming year with hope and, just maybe, a little gratitude. And it’s even more helpful if we can find some good in the “shit-show in a dumpster fire”* that is the Trump Presidency.

It turns out that there really are several improvements in American life that can be attributed to Individual #1, and in the interest of fairness and balance they should be noted.

Thank you for killing the Republican Party. For decades the country has been suffering under the incessant drumbeat of Conservative ideology: kill the government, reduce taxes, harass the poor, enrich the corporations, alienate black and brown people, and spread more guns around. You have done your country a great service by escalating that ideology to its ridiculous extreme, to the point that even the deplorable are coming to deplore it. Separating children from their parents was a real coup!

Thank you for clarifying the ideology of the Democratic Party. It has slouched along for a generation by pasting together a fragile coalition of identity groups, funded by the very corporate and media moguls that it ought to be reining in. By wooing and then stomping on working-class voters you have restored the Democrats’ rightful base. And as a bonus, the party has tacked to the left, where it belongs.

Thank you for revealing the level of corruption that exists in the upper tiers of American society. While we have always had our suspicions, your administration has made it obvious to all that this nouveau-ruling class is as rotten as roadkill, thinking themselves exempt from any constraints of law or morality. And while scum generally rises to the top, you have done a great public service by helping it along, even fingering many of the worst offenders by appointing them to high office. Now the authorities can send them all to the pokey and enact meaningful reforms. Genius!

Thank you for empowering women to strike back at sexual assailants, misogynist bosses and sexist jerks. The Me Too movement owes its growth at least partly to your constant demeaning of women’s looks, intellect, and overall humanity. And this is not to mention the selfless revelation of your own grimy and frankly sad sexual exploits.

Thank you for giving us a peek at what the gradual inching toward fascism looks like. We Americans have for too long taken smug comfort in the robustness of our democratic institutions and Constitution, ever since we defeated Nazism in the Second World War. “How could those Germans have fallen for that evil tyrant?” Now we know. Thank you, Mr. President.

Thank you for making universal health coverage a likelihood. It was only a few years ago that “Obamacare” was a Communist attack on American freedoms. Today it’s too conservative for the majority of Americans, and “Medicare for all” is the new mantra.

Thank you for clarifying our true American values, by offering yourself and your administration as their antithesis.

Oh, and Vladimir Putin says thanks, too.

*Actual quote by a White House staffer.

Written by Brian Fogarty, Professor Emeritus of Sociology, St. Catherine University

https://befogarty.wordpress.com/2018/12/24/thank-you-mr-president/

posted by misterpatrick at 3:41 PM on December 28, 2018 [54 favorites]

At the end of the first full week of the Trump Shutdown, CNN reports: Federal Employees Prepare For a Long Shutdown. 380,000 federal employees are on furlough and another 420,000 are working without pay.

San Diego Union-Tribune checks on the Coast Guard: Some Local Military Members Won't Be Paid Throughout Shutdown: "Nationwide, 42,000 active-duty members and 1,300 civilian employees will continue to work without pay. About 7,400 civilian Coast Guard employees have been furloughed."

Washington Post: Disruptive, Disappointing, Chaotic: Shutdown Upends Scientific Research

ABC: Government Shutdown: Employees lose not only paychecks but paid time off, too

National Post: U.S. Farmers Caught In Trade War With China Now A Casualty Of Government Shutdown—Just when U.S. farmers thought they were catching a break with federal aid, the impasse in Washington could hamper payments
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:59 PM on December 28, 2018 [23 favorites]

I am much happier with press coverage of the shut-down this time (as shown above by Doktor Zed, above), compared with previous ones. Before, it was all about the inconvenience of tourists trying to see museums or visit parks. This time it is about the cost to government programs, to science, to taxpayers who are served by the programs, to people trying to pay their bills while receiving no pay.

Meanwhile: Remember a post a while ago, about incompetent Victorian occult detectives? Thanks, Metafilter! Now that I'm furloughed, I have time to sit down and read some of those. Pro tip: do not bring a mummy home for your private collection! Mayhem will ensue!
posted by acrasis at 4:52 PM on December 28, 2018 [35 favorites]

Before, it was all about the inconvenience of tourists trying to see museums or visit parks. This time it is about the cost to government programs, to science, to taxpayers who are served by the programs, to people trying to pay their bills while receiving no pay.

Yes, but the press coverage is still softly both-sides-ish on whom they are ultimately going to pin the blame. I fear they are waiting for the new congress to come in, and then, as usual, crucify the democrats for not solving the problem in hour one.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:07 PM on December 28, 2018 [3 favorites]

I fear they are waiting for the new congress to come in, and then, as usual, crucify the democrats for not solving the problem in hour one.

Is there any reason that first thing Friday morning the House can't pass the CR that the Senate had unanimously passed and then send it back to the Senate for a quick vote, and land it on Trump's desk for his signature before lunchtime?
posted by mikelieman at 5:11 PM on December 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

San Diego Union-Tribune checks on the Coast Guard: Some Local Military Members Won't Be Paid Throughout Shutdown: "Nationwide, 42,000 active-duty members and 1,300 civilian employees will continue to work without pay. About 7,400 civilian Coast Guard employees have been furloughed."

So it's linked in the article, but I wanted to give a shout-out here in case anyone is so inclined: if you're looking for someplace to help Coasties and their families through this, the Coast Guard Mutual Assistance fund is the place to go. It's been around a long time to help Coasties hit by financial hardships through no fault of their own and has four out of four stars on Charity Navigator.

As someone who has rage-donated his way through the last two years of horror shows and dumpster fires, I don't think of the Coast Guard's troubles as the biggest problem around. I certainly think they'll get by in the end. That said, this will inevitably hurt some people harder than others. If the shutdown is the kind of thing that makes you want to put out some donations, that's a reliable one to try.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:13 PM on December 28, 2018 [11 favorites]

mikelieman, when the new Congress begins all bills from the previous Congress die, so both the House and Senate would need to pass a CR.
posted by wintermind at 5:15 PM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

mikelieman, when the new Congress begins all bills from the previous Congress die, so both the House and Senate would need to pass a CR.

That's what I thought. The House passes the CR and has to send it to the Senate for them to pass it. ( the vote in the last session doesn't count ).

But there's still no reason they couldn't dump it on Trump's desk by lunchtime, right?
posted by mikelieman at 5:17 PM on December 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

Yes, they could do that if they wanted to.
posted by wintermind at 5:22 PM on December 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

The question there is whether McConnell would bring the exact same CR that the Senate unanimously passed up for a vote if Trump still threatens to veto it. Even if he does bring it to the floor, will senate republicans actually vote to override Trump's veto?
posted by heathkit at 5:30 PM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

It's the only smart political move, for Democrats to pass it in the first hour.

1) They get it off their plate so they can move on to election reform and investigations.
2) Makes it 100% clear that Republicans are responsible.
3) Shows Democrats are effective, efficient, organized and responsible.
posted by msalt at 5:31 PM on December 28, 2018 [61 favorites]

Twitter thread on Trump's Iraq visit by @Stonekettle: "Naturally, this morning my inbox is overloaded with demands and expectations that I say something pithy about Trump's visit to US troops in Iraq yesterday. I do have a few things to say, but I doubt you'll like it."

...

They say a fish rots from the head. That's what you're looking at here. Rot. From the top down. Poor leadership starting with the Commander-in-Chief, permeating the Officer and NCO ranks. Partisanship. Open bias in the ranks. Slack discipline. A lack of professionalism.

No wonder they failed to maintain operational security.

This is another indicator of rot, like those collisions at sea last year, or the departure of actual professionals from senior civilian positions -- and the mockery and belittling of the same by the Commander-in-Chief himself -- and the demands for purity in the ranks.

This is how a military falls apart, how discipline decays, how the mission fails, how rot grows in the ranks, how leadership is replaced with amateurs and ineffectual fools, how military service become a haven for thugs instead of the profession of a nation's best.

THIS is how a professional service becomes a tool of oppression and fascism under the camouflage of patriotism and national security.

You're watching it happen.

posted by homunculus at 5:51 PM on December 28, 2018 [95 favorites]

But there's still no reason they couldn't dump it on Trump's desk by lunchtime, right?

It really depends on Mitch, doesn’t it? Passing the CR and sending it to Trump, knowing full well it’s (probably) nothing near what he wants, will almost certainly draw Individual-1’s ire. Then, when I-1 vetoes the CR, Mitch is faced with either getting his people to override the veto (which would be like a declaration of war in I-1’s eyes) or failing to override, which would then squarely and clearly place responsibility for the shutdown on the republicans.

Fun times.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:53 PM on December 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

which_would_then_squarely_and_clearly_place_responsibility_for_the_shutdown_on_the_republicans = f(surely_this)
posted by ZenMasterThis at 6:18 PM on December 28, 2018 [14 favorites]

Then, when I-1 vetoes the CR

I'ma let you finish but... he ain't got those stones.
posted by butterstick at 7:13 PM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

I'ma let you finish but... he ain't got those stones.

You're assuming he understands the stakes.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:43 PM on December 28, 2018 [3 favorites]

Not that I'm surprised, but of course they try to sneak it in at 4pm on a Friday - Trump Imposes Pay Freeze on Civilian Feds for 2019. Nothing like kicking them while they're down!
posted by photo guy at 7:45 PM on December 28, 2018 [25 favorites]

National Post: U.S. Farmers Caught In Trade War With China Now A Casualty Of Government Shutdown—Just when U.S. farmers thought they were catching a break with federal aid, the impasse in Washington could hamper payments

Let's all take a moment to note that the National Post (basically the Canadian equivalent of the Wall Street Journal's editorial page) is pointing and laughing at the stupid Americans.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:12 PM on December 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

Not that I'm surprised, but of course they try to sneak it in at 4pm on a Friday - Trump Imposes Pay Freeze on Civilian Feds for 2019.

On the plus side, Trump is assuming that any of them will get paid at any point during 2019.
posted by Etrigan at 8:42 PM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

This video from Media Matters (SLYT) shows a montage of 30 times Trump directly echoed what he heard on Fox News. It was compiled by Matthew Gertz who has been tracking the relationship between Fox News and Trump's Twitter posts:

"There is no strategy to Trump’s Twitter feed; he is not trying to distract the media. He is being distracted. He darts with quark-like speed from topic to topic in his tweets because that’s how cable news works."

posted by upplepop at 8:48 PM on December 28, 2018 [53 favorites]

Partisanship. Open bias in the ranks. Slack discipline. A lack of professionalism.

When you have volunteer armed forces that draw heavily from urban low-income communities and rural low-income communities, injecting partisanship is toxic. (There have been rumblings about the Air Force Academy for a while, and that infects the officer corps.) If you're a grunt from a big city, are you going to pause for a moment about putting yourself in harm's way for someone who waved a campaign flag or lined up to get a magahat signed? (And vice versa.)

The question there is whether McConnell would bring the exact same CR that the Senate unanimously passed

That's his problem.
posted by holgate at 9:32 PM on December 28, 2018 [11 favorites]

Politico, FEMA revives flood insurance sales after backlash. FEMA had stopped writing flood insurance policies during the shutdown, which meant some home sales were stalled. OMB told FEMA to knock it off and issue the policies anyway, which seems to me to rather stretch the definition of "essential" to "things that would be inconvenient and costly."

My view has always been that the definition of "essential" for the purpose of a government shutdown should be pretty much "people are going to die." The government does a lot of useful things, and we don't entirely appreciate that because the definition of "essential" for a shutdown means that a lot of the stuff that would be immediately apparent stays open. We'd notice a full shutdown (this is a partial shutdown, as some agencies are fully funded) right away, and maybe realize that government can be useful if air traffic control closed down in an orderly fashion (except for capacity for emergency flights) and a shutdown had immediate consequences for more than just federal workers.

On the other hand, EPA just ran out of their last scraps of cash and is shutting down, and the Smithsonian will be closing museums starting January 2nd.

The Office of Personnel Management provided the helpful suggestion that federal workers try asking their landlords about "the possibility of trading my services to perform maintenance (e.g. painting, carpentry work) in exchange for partial rent payments." That idea went over rather poorly.
posted by zachlipton at 9:48 PM on December 28, 2018 [27 favorites]

The WH isn't releasing the typical daily schedule / guidance during the shutdown, which means we won't know whether there'll be a trip to the New Year's Emoluments party in Florida until it happens. Or not.

Oh, we'll know. The only remaining tenet of conservatism is that the libs must know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, how thoroughly they have been owned.

Note: Does not require actual ownage.
posted by Etrigan at 9:57 PM on December 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

Senator Hirono to Donate Pay to Food Banks Across Hawaii During Partial Government Shutdown

Senator Mazie K. Hirono announced that she will donate pay she receives during the partial government shutdown to food banks in all four counties across Hawaii.

“More than 2,500 federal workers in Hawaii are either furloughed or working without pay during the holidays because Donald Trump shut down the government,” Senator Hirono said. “As long as Donald Trump refuses to re-open the government, I will be donating my salary to Hawaii’s food banks – who serve nearly one in eight Hawaii residents in need.”

Senator Hirono will divide her salary between the Hawaii Food Bank on Oahu and Kauai, Maui Food Bank, and Hawaii Food Basket on Hawaii Island.

During the January 2018 shutdown, Senator Hirono donated her salary to Hawaii’s 14 Federally Qualified Community Health Centers.

During the 2013 government shutdown, Senator Hirono donated her salary to Lanakila Pacific, Hawaii Meals on Wheels, the Hawaii County Economic Opportunity Council, Kauai Economic Opportunity, and Hale Mahaolu.

posted by Iris Gambol at 10:08 PM on December 28, 2018 [95 favorites]

The question there is whether McConnell would bring the exact same CR that the Senate unanimously passed

That's his problem.

McConnell is his and everyone's problem and needs to go.

Trump is steering the Republicans down a dead end and I don't see any way out of this crisis other than the GOP breaking. Trump for real just ruined Christmas for a good chunk of the country. Everybody knows it was HIM, and I know we say "surely this" around here a lot, but I feel like the old power calculus broke for Republicans this year. With an angry population, economy sagging from mismanagement, executive power a poisoned chalice, Mueller's sword about to fall, and Democrats in control of the loudest branch of government, I don't see anywhere for the Republicans to turn but on their godhead.

It may not be an outright party split, but my gut tells me that next year, the only faces left for the leopards to eat are each other's.
posted by saysthis at 10:08 PM on December 28, 2018 [11 favorites]

The Office of Personnel Management provided the helpful suggestion that federal workers try asking their landlords about "the possibility of trading my services to perform maintenance (e.g. painting, carpentry work) in exchange for partial rent payments." That idea went over rather poorly.

Please please please someone try this at a trump or Kushner property.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 10:29 PM on December 28, 2018 [38 favorites]

My view has always been that the definition of "essential" for the purpose of a government shutdown should be pretty much "people are going to die." The government does a lot of useful things, and we don't entirely appreciate that because the definition of "essential" for a shutdown means that a lot of the stuff that would be immediately apparent stays open.

During the 2011 shutdown I was told I was non-essential...for around 9 days, when somehow the essentialness of my exact same job was upgraded to “essential” and we were all told to come back in, just before the shutdown ended a couple days later.

The only factor is how much public disruption is acceptable. Lack of Flood insurance tanking tons of middle and upper class home sales isn’t politically acceptable, therefore “essential”.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:56 PM on December 28, 2018 [12 favorites]

The Office of Personnel Management provided the helpful suggestion that federal workers try asking their landlords about "the possibility of trading my services to perform maintenance (e.g. painting, carpentry work) in exchange for partial rent payments." That idea went over rather poorly.

Yes, especially since it is illegal for a federal worker to take part-time work during a government shutdown. I would think the OPM would know this.
posted by Quonab at 11:15 PM on December 28, 2018 [47 favorites]

It may not be an outright party split, but my gut tells me that next year, the only faces left for the leopards to eat are each other's.

Where to invest? Popcorn stocks, or gun futures?
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:16 PM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

war and hyperactive puppies all round, then
posted by tivalasvegas at 11:47 PM on December 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

Peter King (R-NY) said a stupid racist thing that was being played on cable news earlier today accompanied by distressingly little context about its veracity. After some Googling the place I found better context was AlterNet^†:

I mean, [ICE] had hundreds of thousands of people that they’ve had custody of over the years, and I think these are the only two children that have died, certainly in recent memory. So considering all of that, certainly what happens in housing projects across the country, I think ICE has an excellent record.

They link to a USA Today story from the preceding day reporting more detail surrounding the deaths of Jakelin Caal and Felipe Gomez Alonzo—evidently after telling Congress she had no idea how many people are dying in custody, Kirstjen Nielsen got back to them eventually to say that for the 2018 financial year (Sept. 2017—Sept. 2018) six adults died—and an ACLU report released May this year based on 30,000 pages of documents obtained via FOIA and dated from 2009 to 2014 specifically concerning unaccompanied minors.

Given Nielsen's lackadaisical attention to the adult death rate on her watch and the details of mistreatment of children which required FOIA requests to uncover, it seems unlikely that anyone actually knows whether King's claim is true.

Consequently, I'm also sure no one ever tried to extrapolate the numbers of adult and child deaths that would have been expected to occur under the cover-story-for-the-Holocaust “Deportation Force removes all undocumented immigrants to somewhere over the border” plan they all supported, even at “normal” U.S. immigration system processing fatality rates, much less while accounting for Trumpian levels of incompetence and acquiescence to crimes against humanity.

† According to Wikipedia and previously AlterNet is under new management and ownership since last I checked: a year ago last week the executive editor resigned after multiple accusations of sexual harassment, then AlterNet was bought by Raw Story
posted by XMLicious at 12:37 AM on December 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

zachlipton: "The Office of Personnel Management provided the helpful suggestion that federal workers try asking their landlords about "the possibility of trading my services to perform maintenance (e.g. painting, carpentry work) in exchange for partial rent payments.""

Isn't this how super villains end up with nuclear weapons?

Quonab: "Yes, especially since it is illegal for a federal worker to take part-time work during a government shutdown."

Is it always illegal for federal workers to have secondary employment or only during a shutdown? Because if the latter that seems like needless cruelty. (I'm surprised the former flys, at least for people making less than say 100K annually, but at least it wouldn't be cruel).
posted by Mitheral at 4:20 AM on December 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Gathering up all the rubbish that isn't being collected on the National Mall and dumping it outside the hotel would be a good start.
posted by holgate at 6:02 AM on December 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

Doctors Warn More Children in Border Patrol Stations Could Die Like Felipe and Jakelin
posted by The Whelk at 6:28 AM on December 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

I don’t think it’s actually illegal for us feds to seek outside employment during furloughs, but we remain bound by the standards of ethical conduct for federal employees, which prohibit outside employment that is “substantially similar” (no, even my ethics officer doesn’t really know what that means because it’s not defined in the legislation) to our government job. This can really limit short-term consulting opportunities, which can pay relatively well.
posted by wintermind at 6:29 AM on December 29, 2018 [23 favorites]

prohibit outside employment that is “substantially similar” (no, even my ethics officer doesn’t really know what that means because it’s not defined in the legislation)

We're all very good at spotting conflicts of interest at cabinet level positions, and even appearances of conflict, so it's not that hard to examine our own lives similarly.
posted by M-x shell at 7:30 AM on December 29, 2018

Across fields, living paycheck to paycheck is increasingly common
posted by The Whelk at 7:31 AM on December 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

Trump issues executive order freezing federal workers' pay in 2019
posted by ZenMasterThis at 7:38 AM on December 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Is it always illegal for federal workers to have secondary employment or only during a shutdown? Because if the latter that seems like needless cruelty. (I'm surprised the former flys, at least for people making less than say 100K annually, but at least it wouldn't be cruel).

In previous shutdowns, I was told that we could not work. I guess it may be 'against federal regulations' versus 'illegal', that distinction is always a bit confusing to me. In any case, it was made clear to me that we would be fired if it happened. Under Obama, the terms of the shutdown were explained to us well, and what was expected of us was pretty clear. Nobody expected this shutdown, and little to no guidance was issued. It wasn't really better for the last shutdown either, but at least it only lasted a weekend.
posted by Quonab at 8:08 AM on December 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

What if the shutdown doesn’t end anytime soon?
posted by hijinx at 8:30 AM on December 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

If?

I know I-1 has crumbled in the past, but I honestly feel this is going to be different. I can easily see him being even more of a petulant man-baby than usual and keep the shutdown going well into January.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:56 AM on December 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

hijinx: "What if the shutdown doesn’t end anytime soon?"

I assume that Congress could override his veto if the Republicans suddenly developed spines.
posted by octothorpe at 9:05 AM on December 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

It won’t be spines that’ll push GOP Senators to override a veto; it’ll be some monster more fearsome than Trump’s Base moving onto the stage.
posted by notyou at 9:19 AM on December 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Isn't the default a pocket veto (i.e., if the President doesn't sign a law, Congress needs a two-thirds majority to effectuate the law)?

It has been nearly a decade since any major legislation has made it though our dysfunctional government (minus the stupid Trump upward-redistribution of taxes). Have we really not needed to address any issues at all since the ACA was passed? I submit that we have, and we have not done it, and that the government of the United States is barely hobbling along until either it or the Republican Party falls the fuck apart. Let's hope the latter happens first.
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:38 AM on December 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

Across fields, living paycheck to paycheck is increasingly common

This article makes me sad because they had to write an article about it which suggests that there are some people somewhere in the US who don't live like this and don't know people who do. Everyone I can think of who doesn't live paycheck to paycheck is much older than me. I just turned 42.
posted by hydropsyche at 9:39 AM on December 29, 2018 [38 favorites]

[No shit Sherlock]
New Jersey AG have evidence that supervisors at Trump’s golf club committed federal immigration crimes — and the FBI as well as special counsel Robert Mueller have played part in the inquiry
posted by growabrain at 9:57 AM on December 29, 2018 [31 favorites]

Isn't the default a pocket veto (i.e., if the President doesn't sign a law, Congress needs a two-thirds majority to effectuate the law)?

That's not quite right, but also a common misunderstanding from K12 civics classes, which ~always present the pocket veto as some sort of weird extra power.

The default 99.9% of the time is: President doesn't sign, it just becomes law ~10 days later.

The other 0.01% of the time is if Congress has gone out of session in that ~10 day window, so there is nobody around who could override a veto. Because there's nobody who could override a veto anyway, what happens if the president doesn't sign switches to the bill not becoming law.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:58 AM on December 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

It won’t be spines that’ll push GOP Senators to override a veto; it’ll be some monster more fearsome than Trump’s Base moving onto the stage.

If they're ok with Putin putting his thumb on the scale, they'll be ok with any "monster", foreign or domestic. The only thing that matters to them is maintaining their power, by whatever means necessary.
posted by longdaysjourney at 9:58 AM on December 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Trump also stressed that a pay freeze would not affect the federal government's ability to attract qualified workers.

Of course - who would ever factor random furloughs and the occasional pay freeze every time some manbaby doesn't get his bottle/beaded curtain/racist-whatever into their employment decisions? Or is he technically correct, because his being there is already the maximum deterrent to the federal government's ability to attract qualified workers?

The only thing that matters to them is maintaining their power, by whatever means necessary.

In other words, this partial shutdown lasts until enough republican mega-donors tell McConnell to cut the shit. No wonder he's washing his hands of it, saying it's between democrats and trump. [WaPo]
posted by mrgoat at 10:10 AM on December 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

If they're ok with Putin putting his thumb on the scale, they'll be ok with any "monster", foreign or domestic. The only thing that matters to them is maintaining their power, by whatever means necessary

Will they be OK with the market down 10%+ YTD?
posted by mikelieman at 10:10 AM on December 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

Is it always illegal for federal workers to have secondary employment or only during a shutdown? Because if the latter that seems like needless cruelty.

One of our technicians also works as a waitress in order to make ends meet, so ordinarily, we can have other jobs. I have no idea if that person could increase her hours in her second job in order to weather this. In a shutdown, however, we are encouraged to file for unemployment, which makes no sense to me, since we will eventually (knock wood) be paid.
posted by acrasis at 10:17 AM on December 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Acrasis, my first thought about that atypical suggestion to file for unemployment: the R's are making it clear that your jobs won't come back. Just like they put antagonistic leaders into agencies specifically to destroy those agencies, so they can gut regulations without explicit congressional action, this is a backhanded way to work toward Grover Norquist dreams of reduction in headcount.
posted by Sublimity at 10:25 AM on December 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

New Jersey AG have evidence that supervisors at Trump’s golf club committed federal immigration crimes — and the FBI as well as special counsel Robert Mueller have played part in the inquiry

One of many reasons to lament Democratic losses in Florida is the potential for a parallel investigation into operations at Mar-A-Lago. Although unlike senate and governor, the AG race there wasn't particularly close.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:31 AM on December 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

Sublimity, That was also the suggestion two shutdowns ago, during the Obama administration, so I don't think so, although I am pretty paranoid at the moment. What's amazing is how much better and clearer our instructions are this time, as if "practice makes perfect". In previous shutdowns, you were supposed to report in the first day of the shutdown, even if you are on a cruise ship in the Caribbean when the shutdown occurs. This time we're allowed to come in when our normal leave has elapsed. So I shut down last Wednesday, my technician will be coming in Monday to do her shutdown, and a colleague in Iceland will come in some time later for her scheduled shutdown. [If you are wondering what exactly we are shutting down, we are putting an automatic reply on emails and phones saying not to exactly expect any response from us any time soon].
posted by acrasis at 10:33 AM on December 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

In a shutdown, however, we are encouraged to file for unemployment, which makes no sense to me, since we will eventually (knock wood) be paid.

Part of the reason federal employees have been paid in the past is that the states don’t want to pay all the unemployment claims and so pressure the federal government to pay. Any unemployment that was collected will have to be repaid to the state if workers are retroactively paid for the duration of the shutdown.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:41 AM on December 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

This is verbatim from the Ethics Q&A e-mailed to all of the employees of my agency:

"Outside Activities/Outside Employment

Q. May employees take other jobs while on furlough?
A. It depends. USDA employees are required to comply with the ethics regulations governing engaging in outside employment or activities (5 CFR Parts 2635 and 8301). During a furlough, the requirement for employees to seek advance approval of any outside employment or activity is waived. As noted above, it is important to remember that the ethics rules still apply to all employees during a furlough period, so any outside activity or employment must not present a conflict of interest with your USDA position and duties. Because employees will not have access to their ethics officials during a shutdown, employees must evaluate any outside activity closely. If there is a risk that the outside activity/employment would create a conflict of interest or even the appearance of a conflict of interest, the employee should refrain from participating during the shutdown."

It seems pretty reasonable to interpret that to mean that, yes, you can seek outside employment while furloughed, but you must comply with applicable ethics guidelines. So, for example, you cannot take a contract job with a company that your lab works closely with because that is a real or perceived conflict of interest, but you could work at the Genius Bar at your local Apple Store as seasonal help (if you're not an IT Specialist, I guess). If you want to continue the job after the shutdown ends, you must do through the usual process to get permission to participate in an outside activity.

Here's my question: suppose that a guy were to decide to leave the federal service during a shutdown, but there's nobody there to process an SF-52...are you simultaneously employed by the government and not employed by the government?
posted by wintermind at 10:42 AM on December 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

In a shutdown, however, we are encouraged to file for unemployment, which makes no sense to me, since we will eventually (knock wood) be paid.

Is that an automatic thing, or will congress have to authorize back-pay? And, if congress has to authorize it, will Trump have to sign it?
posted by Thorzdad at 10:51 AM on December 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

It is not automatic. It would require an act of Congress.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 11:02 AM on December 29, 2018

If you seek and receive unemployment, and then get back-pay, you have to repay the unemployment. Just an FYI.
posted by wintermind at 11:03 AM on December 29, 2018

If anyone is in a daydreaming mood, here are a Toronto Star writer's 10 predictions for 2019 (#1 is "Mueller declares Trump illegitimate").
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:30 AM on December 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

suppose that a guy were to decide to leave the federal service during a shutdown, but there's nobody there to process an SF-52...are you simultaneously employed by the government and not employed by the government?

Schroedinger's Bureaucrat
posted by msalt at 11:52 AM on December 29, 2018 [39 favorites]

On top of the partial Government shut down I want to scream to the high heavens the fact that photo guy mentioned and ZenMasterThis re-affirmed:

Not only are some government employees not getting paid (because they are told not to work) and other government employees are not getting paid (yet being required to work), Trump also signed an Executive Order saying they won't get a raise in 2019.

Trump not only dropped that bombshell as late as possible on a Friday, he dropped it on the Friday between Christmas and New Years where even the watchers are enjoying festivities instead of watching.

I can't see a bigger middle finger to those employed by the government.

Oops, I can. Cost of Living Adjustment was set at 2.8%. Salary "increase" was set at 2.1%. So, if/when Fed employees can go back to work...

1. They may get paid back-pay (as I have said previously, I have always seen that, but someone else rightfully noted who knows with Trump).
2. When they come back, they won't get a raise.
3. A raise that wouldn't even cover COLA. (Cost of Living Adjustment 1, 2, 3)

That's two or three cuts in pay depending on how you look at it.

Oh, I forgot the bonus fact from the CNN article:

In a letter to House and Senate leaders in August, Trump described the pay increase as "inappropriate."

"We must maintain efforts to put our Nation on a fiscally sustainable course, and Federal agency budgets cannot sustain such increases," the President wrote.

I know the numbers don't match but 3+ billion more for "wall", is appropriate and fiscally sustainable while paying employees is not?

Yes, I know this is Trump and there is a history of doing exactly what I just said in the last sentence. I am just trying to make a clear a-z reference on this shutdown/pay stall/hide the news, etc. Each piece, on it's own is just another Trump day. Put together and how it all interacts... I think will change things, in one way or another.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 12:11 PM on December 29, 2018 [31 favorites]

Latest dispatch from the Leopard-Wont-Eat-My-Face Dept

US farmers 'helpless' as TPP boosts Australian producers
"Japan is generally a market where we seek to maintain our strong 53 per cent market share, but today we face an imminent collapse," US Wheat Associates President Vince Peterson told a public hearing held by the US Trade Representative earlier this month.
"Frankly, this is because of provisions negotiated by (former US president Barack Obama's administration) for our benefit under the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
"Our competitors in Australia and Canada will now benefit from those provisions, as US farmers watch helplessly."
posted by PenDevil at 12:19 PM on December 29, 2018 [22 favorites]

Trump blames deaths of migrant children on Democrats (CBS News)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:37 PM on December 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

WaPo on same:

Trump politicizes deaths of two immigrant children to score points in border wall fight

The tweets marked Trump’s first public comments about the deaths of the children, and he offered no empathy to the families and took no responsibility for the government’s handling of their cases.

The deaths of Jakelin Caal, 7, on Dec. 7, and Felipe Gomez Alonzo, 8, on Dec. 24, have raised questions about the care of immigrants who are in U.S. government as the Trump administration has toughened rules for those entering the country without authorization, including families with children.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:58 PM on December 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

The tweets marked Trump’s first public comments about the deaths of the children, and he offered no empathy to the families and took no responsibility for the government’s handling of their cases.

This dynamic can scale up infinitely. There is no limit to the body count that can and will be casually and instinctively blamed on you and me.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:13 PM on December 29, 2018 [33 favorites]

"See what you made me do?" Nothing abuser-y about this tweet!
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:24 PM on December 29, 2018 [67 favorites]

Not only was The Great Negotiator not able to make Mexico pay for the wall, he couldn't convince a Republican congress to make America pay for it
posted by growabrain at 2:23 PM on December 29, 2018 [33 favorites]

The Buck Stops ~~Here~~ There.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:22 PM on December 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Schadenfreude Department: ‘You Control Nothing’: House Republicans Brace for Life in the Minority

(this will probably goose House GOP retirement numbers in 2020)
posted by Chrysostom at 3:53 PM on December 29, 2018 [17 favorites]

T.D. Strange: "This is the real reason. They sold NYE tickets for 200k again, he has to be there to put in the face time his foreign donors paid for."

Palm Beach Post:

President Donald Trump has canceled plans to spend the New Year’s holiday at Mar-a-Lago. A source who had planned to attend the Mar-a-Lago New Year’s Eve party said Friday Palm Beach was abuzz with members and guests talking about their own plans to bail on the Trump family’s annual gala.

posted by Chrysostom at 3:55 PM on December 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

President Donald Trump has canceled plans to spend the New Year’s holiday at Mar-a-Lago

He or his subordinates will figure out an emergency reason to fly down.
posted by rhizome at 3:59 PM on December 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

House Republicans Brace for Life in the Minority

I mean they've kind of been using the Trump presidency to do this already for the past 2 years: packing as many partisan judges into the courts as possible so that they can go back to bypassing congress via legislation through carefully chosen lawsuits, and blowing a massive hole in the budget to preemptively oppose future spending bills.
posted by p3t3 at 4:25 PM on December 29, 2018 [15 favorites]

Simon Shuster, TIME: Exclusive: Russian Ex-Spy Pressured Manafort Over Debts to an Oligarch

When the U.S. government put out its latest sanctions list on Dec. 19, the man named at the top did not seem especially important. Described in the document as a former Russian intelligence officer, he was accused of handling money and negotiations on behalf of a powerful Russian oligarch. The document did not mention that the man, Victor Boyarkin, had links to the 2016 campaign of President Donald Trump.

A months-long investigation by TIME, however, found that Boyarkin, a former arms dealer with a high forehead and a very low profile, was a key link between a senior member of the Trump campaign and a powerful ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

posted by Surely This at 4:25 PM on December 29, 2018 [30 favorites]

Neil Young (no, not that one), Huffington Post: The Scariest Thing For Republicans In 2018 Was The Democrats’ New Blue Base:

To conclude that a blue wave has crashed on Congress overlooks the much more significant political development of 2018: This year was about a blue base being built across the nation, one that that will support a durable Democratic majority going forward.

...Democrats won by capturing the suburbs and turning the Midwest back their way. This road map to victory closely resembles how the Republican Party rebuilt itself during Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 1990s, establishing a bulwark in the nation’s suburbs and its heartland.

...Certainly, Trump’s presidency generated an election that looked like a blue wave. But the deeper work of defending American democracy against the awful specter of Trumpism has laid the foundation of something far more substantial.

posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:01 PM on December 29, 2018 [21 favorites]

Interesting: Apprentice Producers Struggled to Make Trump—and His Decisions—Seem Coherent

If Trump does have some organic dysfunction it sounds like it hasn't progressed over the past eight years.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:47 PM on December 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

... compiled by Matthew Gertz who has been tracking the relationship between Fox News and Trump's Twitter posts:

"There is no strategy to Trump’s Twitter feed; he is not trying to distract the media. He is being distracted. He darts with quark-like speed from topic to topic in his tweets because that’s how cable news works."

So Trump is a puppet of Fox News?
posted by ZeusHumms at 6:58 PM on December 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Toronto Star’s Daniel Dale on CNN: Just Airing Trump Unfiltered is ‘a Disservice to the Truth’ (Tamar Auber, Mediaite)
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:06 PM on December 29, 2018 [44 favorites]

ZeusHumms: it's a TV state, not State TV.
posted by holgate at 7:41 PM on December 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

They sold NYE tickets for 200k again, he has to be there to put in the face time his foreign donors paid for.

Why would he start caring about customer satisfaction or settling debts now?
posted by Etrigan at 7:59 PM on December 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

I'm kind of surprised we haven't seen the unmasking of the anonymous resistance memo author yet.

I mean, lying low keeps up the possibility that there are still rats in the walls, even if the author has already left. This might have value in some kind of twelve dimensional chess kinda way, assuming the white house has sufficient institutional memory to care.

(Narrator: it does not.)
posted by kaibutsu at 8:51 PM on December 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

Quote of the Day, via PoliticalWire

“As the year winds down and we look toward 2019, I’m asking you to make a commitment: find something you want to change in your community and take the first step toward changing it. If you need some inspiration, take a look at some of the young leaders who inspired me this year.”

— Barack Obama, on Twitter

*makes commitment to eradicating twitter in the community*
posted by petebest at 9:08 PM on December 29, 2018 [41 favorites]

In Major Move, Census Bureau Offers Up Citizenship Data For Redistricting (Tierney Sneed, TPM)

In what could be a major change for voting rights and the distribution of political power between urban and rural areas, the Census Bureau signaled Friday that it is willing to work with state and local officials charged with drawing voting districts if they want citizenship data for the redistricting process.

The move to inject citizenship into redistricting has been feared since the Trump administration decided to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. The addition of the citizenship to the census remains embroiled in litigation.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:49 PM on December 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

Yikes.

A study by CUNY-Queens College sociology professor Andrew Beveridge analyzing what would happen if states drew districts based on citizens of voting age rather than total population found that “more than half of all districts would be substantially changed.”

The study was conducted during the 2016 Supreme Court case, Evenwel v. Abbott, brought by conservative activists who sought unsuccessfully to prohibit states from including non-citizens in state legislative redistricting.

“The demographic shift in voting power would also substantially favor increasing the number of Republican-dominated districts,” his report said.

His report specifically analyzed state legislatures in New York, Florida, California and Texas.

“In every instance, redrawing districts using the eligible voter standard would most likely result in a shift from Democratic to Republican elected officials,” it said.

posted by xammerboy at 10:18 PM on December 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

In every instance, redrawing districts using the eligible voter standard would most likely result in a shift from Democratic to Republican elected officials

If a state gets to ignore residents when drawing districts, they shouldn’t get to count them towards apportioning national house seats.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:56 PM on December 29, 2018 [61 favorites]

Oh hey, I noted stuff about Coast Guard pay & helping and all up above, but it turns out: NBC News: Coast Guard members will get one-time paycheck on New Year's Eve amid government shutdown, so maybe that's not such an issue just yet. They're getting their next scheduled paycheck, at least.

...alternately, if news sources akin to the Onion are more your style: Duffel Blog: Coast Guard begins reselling seized cocaine amid government shutdown

SAN DIEGO — With the Coast Guard being the only branch of the military whose members may go without during the current government shutdown, the service has decided to resell the nearly $1 billion dollars worth of cocaine seized in the past six months to supplement pay for the 42,000 men and women on active duty.

“We doubt legislation will be passed by Friday, Dec. 28, which will keep us from getting our scheduled pay check for 31 Dec.,” Chief Warrant Officer Kevin Francescon said in a statement. “However, we have a shit ton of drugs. And if we can capture it, we damn well can sell it back for twice the price to the right buyers.”

/fake
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:07 PM on December 29, 2018 [24 favorites]

If a state gets to ignore residents when drawing districts, they shouldn’t get to count them towards apportioning national house seats.

Republican-dominated legislatures would probably be fine with losing some number of seats, as long as those seats were predominantly Democratic-leaning. In fact I expect this move will be a two-fer: the boundaries of districts with many non-citizens will be increased, thereby reducing the number of those (mostly) blue districts; and the extra area will generally come from the Democratic-leaning portions of adjacent districts, which means that the adjacent areas become more Republican.
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:15 PM on December 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

In previous shutdowns, you were supposed to report in the first day of the shutdown, even if you are on a cruise ship in the Caribbean when the shutdown occurs. This time we're allowed to come in when our normal leave has elapsed.

Right, in previous ones we were told, if you're on leave, you're self-evidently not essential and are furloghed effective immediately. The remainder of your leave is converted to furlough, and you can't be on the essential list. Last time, we were doing that again and payroll changed their mind while we were handing out the furlough letters. This time, luckily, I'm in a non-affected agency, but I am getting tired of this game-playing with people's lives.
posted by ctmf at 11:45 PM on December 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Cyber-attack disrupts printing of major US newspapers
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:28 AM on December 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

[Guradian] El Paso aid agencies overwhelmed as 1,600 migrants are cast on to streets

The US government has released more than 1,600 migrants on to the streets of El Paso, Texas, this week, overwhelming aid agencies that have scrambled to find shelter for families left to fend for themselves.

Advocacy groups said the mass release was “unprecedented”, as volunteers turned out in droves to bring food, water and medicine to migrants stranded in the border city.
...
The chaos began last Sunday night, when 214 people, all families, were released without the usual warning given by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) to Annunciation House, Garcia said. Volunteers worked until at least 2am or 3am trying to find shelter, Garcia said.

Hundreds of people were then released on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Thursday.

May be a double. Mods, feel free to delete if this is not additional to the above report.
posted by stonepharisee at 1:26 AM on December 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

“In every instance, redrawing districts using the eligible voter standard would most likely result in a shift from Democratic to Republican elected officials,” it said.

If you are going to explicitly deny non-citizens their portion of representation, even when they are already denied the opportunity to vote for said representation, then they clearly shouldn't have to pay any taxes.
posted by srboisvert at 5:02 AM on December 30, 2018 [42 favorites]

The constitution pretty clearly states that representation is based on the number of persons and differentiates voting as a right for citizens. How is this even remotely constitutional?
posted by cmfletcher at 5:38 AM on December 30, 2018 [58 favorites]

Montenegro? Money laundering, arms sales, a private army for the UAE? Erik Prince's former business partner, Gregg Smith, is tweeting, and it's making me feel like I need string, a bulletin board, and photos.
posted by MonkeyToes at 6:13 AM on December 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

The number of representatives granted each State is explicitly based on the number of persons (citizens and not) by Article I and the 14th Amendment. However, the States get to draw their own districts, and the guidelines for doing such aren't included in the Constitution. There's a lot of jurisprudence that speaks to appropriate rules for districting, but strictly speaking, there's nothing in the Constitution that says a State can't decide to draw their districts based solely on citizens.

In 1964, the Supreme Court ruled in Wesberry v Sanders that districts had to have roughly equal populations. Basically, Georgia hadn't redrawn their districts for a long time, and by that time the cities had grown much larger, but weren't given more representation. I don't know enough about the case, but I'd surmise given the timing (at the height of the Civil Rights movement), that this would basically have been disenfranchising voters of color.

So, the question would become today, can a State draw their districts while ignoring non-citizens? I'm not sure that question is the same one dealt with in Wesberry, so it may not be unconstitutional on its face. The courts may have to decide it as a new issue.
posted by Room 101 at 6:22 AM on December 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

If you are going to explicitly deny non-citizens their portion of representation, even when they are already denied the opportunity to vote for said representation, then they clearly shouldn't have to pay any taxes.
They've been arguing that kind of thing in DC for decades.
posted by MtDewd at 6:23 AM on December 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

This time, luckily, I'm in a non-affected agency, but I am getting tired of this game-playing with people's lives.

Are government agencies forbidden from planning for shutdowns, like how you’re not supposed to plan the monarch’s funeral before they’re dead? Because otherwise, given the last few years, it’s some form of malpractice not to have a shutdown annex to your contingency plan.
posted by Etrigan at 7:00 AM on December 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Outgoing White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly defends his rocky tenure LATimes.

On Saturday, Trump blamed Democrats for the deaths of the two migrant children this month. He also threatened to cut off U.S. aid to Central America if another reported migrant caravan isn’t stopped.

Kelly didn’t respond to Trump’s threats directly but suggested part of the problem lies on the U.S. side of the border.

“If you want to stop illegal immigration, stop U.S. demand for drugs, and expand economic opportunity” in Central America, he said.

Kelly faulted the administration for failing to follow procedure and failing to anticipate the public outrage for the two most controversial initiatives of his tenure: Trump’s travel ban in January 2017, and the “zero tolerance” immigration policy and family separations this year.

/Kelly already trying to re-write the history of this tenure.....
posted by bluesky43 at 8:05 AM on December 30, 2018 [21 favorites]

...and failing to anticipate the public outrage for the two most controversial initiatives of his tenure: Trump’s travel ban in January 2017, and the “zero tolerance” immigration policy and family separations this year.

Note that the problem Kelly has here isn't that the travel ban or the immigration policy cruel or evil or even morally questionable. No, Kelly's problem is that they should have anticipated and planned for the public's outrage better.
posted by VTX at 8:35 AM on December 30, 2018 [65 favorites]

The fucker who also encouraged, designed and implemented the border policy that put kids in concentration camps – even going on Sunday shows to say they were considering it as a deterrent before they did it – has the nerve to say it was Sessions who did it and surprised them all. So surprised they did nothing to reverse or change it I guess. Nazi.

“What happened was Jeff Sessions, he was the one that instituted the zero-tolerance process on the border that resulted in both people being detained and the family separation,” Kelly said. “He surprised us.”
posted by chris24 at 10:53 AM on December 30, 2018 [15 favorites]

Note that the problem Kelly has here isn't that the travel ban or the immigration policy cruel or evil or even morally questionable. No, Kelly's problem is that they should have anticipated and planned for the public's outrage better.

The fascinating part of this wave of BS is that there is nothing they could legally do about anticipated outrage in a functioning democracy. So what is he lamenting? A press crackdown? Media blackout? Failure to blacksite effectively?
posted by srboisvert at 10:57 AM on December 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

The bright side is, trying to hide their personal roles shows that they know it was wrong and shameful.

On srboisvert's broader point, this is exactly why anti-democratic measures to maintain power are a bad idea. You lose your connection with the people, which is the most powerful foundation of a government's authority, and why the US has the longest running government in the world, more or less.
posted by msalt at 11:00 AM on December 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

Even aside from the shutdown-related stuff, ICE is having trouble actually getting people out of the country, the Boston Globe reports, in a story centered around a man who begged to be deported:

As ICE officials intensify efforts to remove unauthorized immigrants such as Gomes, immigration attorneys say the agency is struggling to carry out deportations, sometimes scheduling flights before securing the proper travel documents or final agreements with home countries.

As a result, many deportees are languishing in detention for months, often well beyond the legal limit of six months set by the US Supreme Court, according to immigration attorneys.

posted by adamg at 11:16 AM on December 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

Kelly already trying to re-write the history of this tenure.....

And Maggie Haberman is already boasting/not-boasting that she knew about the lies, even as Kelly got his umpteen beat-sweetening "adult in the room" stories. A shame that the NYT didn't have someone with insider access to report this. Oh. At least Maggie can dump on her sources once they're out the door.
posted by holgate at 11:19 AM on December 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

Kelly thinks that chattel slavery was OK and that the wrong side won the Civil War. Why should we be surprised that he's in favor of the use of authoritarian methods to enforce crimes against humanity?

On srboisvert's broader point, this is exactly why anti-democratic measures to maintain power are a bad idea. You lose your connection with the people, which is the most powerful foundation of a government's authority, and why the US has the longest running government in the world, more or less.

The US having a long-running government has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with (1) having the resources of an entire continent to play with after exterminating its inhabitants, (2) being the only world power not to have all its cities turned to rubble twice in a century and (3) deftly using its power, resources and technology to train and beat down its citizenry into never engaging in nonreactionary politics. The USA would be unrecognizable if it ever actually tried democracy.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:32 AM on December 30, 2018 [76 favorites]

Note that the problem Kelly has here isn't that the travel ban or the immigration policy cruel or evil or even morally questionable. No, Kelly's problem is that they should have anticipated and planned for the public's outrage better.

Orderly, Lawful Evil, none of that messy Chaotic stuff for him.
posted by scalefree at 11:37 AM on December 30, 2018 [23 favorites]

No dispute on the actual broader point, but "having the resources of an entire continent"?

*polite Canadian cough*

(Plus, Mexico and Australia might have their own issues with that detail.)
posted by bcd at 11:51 AM on December 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

To add to Rust Moranis's point: the relative continuity of a democratic federal government ought to be viewed in the context of state governments that have been all shades of anti-democratic -- arguably some are still so -- including paramilitary racist massacres and de facto coups. White conservatives in the Deep South haven't suffered significant political cost from their state governments being unrepresentative over the past century; the cost is manifested in how they fight for last place on so many national metrics.
posted by holgate at 12:06 PM on December 30, 2018 [9 favorites]

The football's pretty good, tho.
posted by petebest at 12:34 PM on December 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

No dispute on the actual broader point, but "having the resources of an entire continent"?

*polite Canadian cough*

Remember USians, it's still a secret until T minus zero.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 12:41 PM on December 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

Question...Can the president unilaterally lay-off/fire civilian federal employees and contractors?
posted by Thorzdad at 12:47 PM on December 30, 2018

Question...Can the president unilaterally lay-off/fire civilian federal employees and contractors?

The broader question is, "If he tries, who is going to stop him?", which up to now has been "No-one".
posted by mikelieman at 12:49 PM on December 30, 2018 [24 favorites]

Orderly, Lawful Evil, none of that messy Chaotic stuff for him.

I'm sorry this comes from WWI but I swear it's on point: there's a quote from Guns of August about if the Germans at the time had a choice between chaos and injustice, they'd choose injustice every time.

I believe this quote prefaced the description of the slaughter of Belgians who were dastardly enough to resort to guerilla warfare tactics after their country was overrun by Germans en route to France.
posted by angrycat at 1:14 PM on December 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

RE firing federal employees en masse, I’m reminded of how Reagan fired 11,000 striking air traffic controllers back in 1981. He had legal recourse, because of a federal law from back in 1955 that made federal employee strikes illegal. Nevertheless, he went one step further and banned all those he fired from ever serving in the federal government again in any capacity, essentially destroying the careers of thousands of people.

The firing, and the subsequent twisting-of-the-knife lifetime ban, was widely celebrated among right-wingers as evidence of Reagan’s toughness. Today’s right-wing would probably urge they be drawn-and-quartered, as well.
posted by darkstar at 1:22 PM on December 30, 2018 [36 favorites]

Question...Can the president unilaterally lay-off/fire civilian federal employees and contractors?

To a first approximation: no. Most all civilian federal employees have extensive civil service protections and can only be fired for demonstrated cause. He can't fire employees of contracting companies because they don't work for him, and he can't fire individual contractors except in ways that are specified in their contracts and for reasons that are in their contracts.

The broader question is, "If he tries, who is going to stop him?", which up to now has been "No-one".

Courts, who have been stopping all sorts of dumb shit he's tried.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:23 PM on December 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

Courts, who have been stopping all sorts of dumb shit he's tried.

Well, yeah, pretty much, but that doesn't save any children dying in concentration camps right now. They can't wait, and shouldn't have to.
posted by mikelieman at 1:29 PM on December 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

They can't wait, and shouldn't have to.

Not to mention how slowly time goes when you're confined. Imagine the most boring waste of time you've ever experienced, then multiply by 1000. Even waiting days is a scarring experience.
posted by rhizome at 1:39 PM on December 30, 2018 [14 favorites]

Orderly, Lawful Evil, none of that messy Chaotic stuff for him.

I'm sorry this comes from WWI but I swear it's on point: there's a quote from Guns of August about if the Germans at the time had a choice between chaos and injustice, they'd choose injustice every time.

The Canadian government has Peace, Order and Good Government as their "ethos" occupying a similar place as "Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness". Of course how these play out in a nation's history is ...somewhat uneven.

I'd also say if the Kelly as Chief of Staff really was lawful evil then he would have made sure Trump's worst plans were channeled through proper legal processes to achieve their malevolent goals.

He did not.
posted by srboisvert at 3:09 PM on December 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

He did though.

Trump said "close the border" and Kelly came up with the implementation of child concentration camps. And unleashing maximum cruelty at DHS/ICE.

What Kelly stopped Trump from doing, in his own telling, is sabotaging the overseas infrastructure of the permanent American empire allowing us to carry out perpetual war across the globe.

What he HELPED Trump do is implement explicit race based fascism domestically to the best of his ability that the courts allowed him to.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:27 PM on December 30, 2018 [21 favorites]

The broader question is, "If he tries, who is going to stop him?", which up to now has been "No-one".

The Courts? Most Contracting companies have quite large legal departments.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 3:28 PM on December 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

I'd also say if the Kelly as Chief of Staff really was lawful evil

Do we really need to debate what particular flavour of malevolent asshole we’re dealing with?
posted by nubs at 3:28 PM on December 30, 2018 [22 favorites]

McChrystal Denounces Trump as Immoral and a Liar

Retired four-star Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal criticized President Trump’s behavior and handling of the presidency, ABC News reports.

Said McChrystal: “I don’t think he tells the truth.”

When asked if Trump immoral, McChrystal said: “I think he is.”

He added: “If we want to be governed by someone we wouldn’t do a business deal with because their — their background is so shady, if we’re willing to do that, then that’s in conflict with who I think we are. And so I think it’s necessary at those times to take a stand.”

It's probably not unpresidented, but it feels unpresidented.
posted by petebest at 3:30 PM on December 30, 2018 [22 favorites]

It's probably not unpresidented, but it feels unpresidented.
posted by petebest at 6:30 PM on December 30 [1 favorite +] [!]

Typo or freudian slip?
posted by runcibleshaw at 3:33 PM on December 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Since January of 2017, we have all been unpresidented.
posted by Faint of Butt at 3:36 PM on December 30, 2018 [28 favorites]

Neither. Twitler-inflicted disliteracy
posted by petebest at 3:40 PM on December 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

Said McChrystal: “I don’t think he tells the truth.”

There's not much gets by him, is there?
posted by Paul Slade at 3:41 PM on December 30, 2018 [30 favorites]

This article by Paul Sonne in The Washington Post doesn't seem to have been linked yet, but it's an instructive look at how another political campaign sought and received funding from a Russian source. Three relevant points:

• Even an ostensibly commercial organisation in Russia may actually be acting from nationalist motives;
• Russia is full of shadowy organisations and people “working towards the Führer”; consequently,
• Don't assume there's a well organised conspiracy; and,
• It can be impossible to tell what was really going on until things have fallen apart.

The article: A Russian bank gave Marine Le Pen’s party a loan. Then weird things began happening.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:02 PM on December 30, 2018 [31 favorites]

Nentanyahu, Teresa May, and Putin are sitting in a bar.

"MI-6 is the world's best intel agency," May brags. “We traced that polonium directly to a lab in Moscow!"

“That's nothing!" Bibi scoffs. “Mossad slowed the Iranian nuclear weapons program by inserting a virus into their centrifuges!"

"Child's play!" sneers Putin. “The GRU sent our top double agent to Iraq who took a photo of Seal Team Five and posted it on Twitter!"
posted by bz at 6:05 PM on December 30, 2018 [79 favorites]

Said McChrystal: “I don’t think he tells the truth.”

There's not much gets by him, is there?

Bear in mind that McChrystal is a retired Army general, which means he is in a weird quasi-legal status that may render him still subject to the Uniform Code of Military Justice, including Article 88, which expressly forbids officers from using "contemptuous" words about the President of the United States (and some other people and entities). What exactly "contemptuous" means is up in the air, as is whether the weird status of retired flag officers still "counts" for UCMJ purposes.

But McChrystal's retirement pay is over $12K a month, and he might not want to risk losing that because the vindictive asshole in the White House and whatever pet military judge he can find (remember, Lindsey Graham was a serving military judge until 2015) decides to go after him. So yeah, he's circumspect about calling the President a liar.
posted by Etrigan at 6:07 PM on December 30, 2018 [32 favorites]

20 states will have their minimum wage increase this year.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:33 PM on December 30, 2018 [28 favorites]

I dunno how effective McChrystal would be if he went "fuck you, fuck you, you're kind of cool, fuck you."

His audience is what he thinks are grown-assed Republicans who can actually parse his statements and hope that they'll increasingly come onboard and add their "reasoned voices" to a chorus.

I dunno how effective this strong but couched statement will be either, though.
posted by porpoise at 7:53 PM on December 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

I just got a notification of that May, Putin, Netanyahu joke from Al Franken. Al, you reading?
posted by Autumnheart at 8:01 PM on December 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

top double agent? try third rate double agent
posted by eustatic at 10:59 PM on December 30, 2018

top double agent? try third rate double agent

Intelligence agencies rate their agents by the value of the intel they provide. How they go about it is less of a factor, in so far that they shouldn't get caught and not unnecessarily expose other agents and communication channels and methods.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:18 AM on December 31, 2018 [2 favorites]

Bear in mind that McChrystal is a retired Army general, which means he is in a weird quasi-legal status that may render him still subject to the Uniform Code of Military Justice, including Article 88...

The main reason for [Article 88] is to keep military members who have access to major weapons of war to ever get involved in politics. Once they are retired or resigned their commission and a civilian citizen, they may partake in such political arguments in both written or spoken word.

Ol' Bud Light Lime knows exactly what he can do, but like a lot of people around [circular hand gesture] there, he doesn't do it. Hard to resist the cocktail-weenie allure. He'll stick his neck out a little, but just a little. Him calling Trump "dumb" or whatever just makes Trump more confident, because that means he's accomplished all that he has as a dummy, so ha ha on you.
posted by rhizome at 1:12 AM on December 31, 2018 [1 favorite]

"Child's play!" sneers Putin. “The GRU sent our top double agent to Iraq who took a photo of Seal Team Five and posted it on Twitter!"

I keep wondering what beast is slouching its way towards Bethlehem, and some days I do think its Putin or Putin-adjacent. Isn't he like the one major player who would like to upset the status quo?

Jesus, imagine if the U.S. had lost the Cold War and we had some U.S. dude around this time who had a major chance to fuck up the USSR. It would be some America Fuck Yeah time.
posted by angrycat at 3:46 AM on December 31, 2018 [7 favorites]

Russia is becoming incredibly dangerous. Acting like Germany in the run up to WW2, only they have a bunch of nukes. Just...terrifying.

Now would be a great time to have a deep bench of undercover spies, I guess, but we’ve always been shit at that. Idk maybe the Germans can save our asses from the Russians this time.
posted by schadenfrau at 3:56 AM on December 31, 2018 [15 favorites]

Breaking news from CNN: Russia detains US citizen on suspicion of spying

American Paul Whelan was arrested December 28 in Moscow "while carrying out an act of espionage," the FSB said in a statement.

"The investigation department of the Federal Security Service of Russia initiated a criminal case against a US citizen under article 276 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The investigation is underway," the statement continued. Article 276 is espionage.

The consensus is that this is in response to Maria Butina's guilty plea earlier this month.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:03 AM on December 31, 2018 [18 favorites]

Elizabeth Warren to launch exploratory committee

It's officially the 2020 primary.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:41 AM on December 31, 2018 [21 favorites]

Now would be a great time to have a deep bench of undercover spies, I guess, but we’ve always been shit at that.

I don't know, my understanding was that we had one until 9/11. Then spies around the world were abruptly ordered to report all the local intelligence they'd gathered; despite concerns that this would out them, endanger them, and devalue their work, the order was not rescinded. So a great many of them left with the understanding that the CIA was now hostile to them doing their actual jobs. I remember hearing this on the TV news at the time, but I'm not finding discussion of it online right now. Maybe I have the details wrong...

This Politico article discusses related troubles: How the CIA Forgot the Art of Spying
According to Weiner’s Legacy of Ashes, “By 2005, half of the CIA’s workforce—operators and analysts alike—had five years’ experience or less.” This new generation of young intelligence officers would be greatly influenced by the new mission and the new way of doing business. Now, 12 years on, those same officers are surely moving into management positions and mentoring younger officers coming in. The war on terror mindset is all they know.
posted by heatvision at 5:43 AM on December 31, 2018 [16 favorites]

And then there's the fact that the State Department is just ransacked. Ronan Farrow's War on Peace is one of those books that both everybody should read and simultaneously avoid for one's mental health.
posted by angrycat at 5:56 AM on December 31, 2018 [17 favorites]

Once they are retired or resigned their commission and a civilian citizen, they may partake in such political arguments in both written or spoken word.

Ol' Bud Light Lime knows exactly what he can do, but like a lot of people around [circular hand gesture] there, he doesn't do it.

Well, I did say "may", and I did expound a little on the squishy boundaries of both "contemptuous" and the particular retired status of generals, which is not really "retired" as normal people would think of it (even less so than retirement by persons of lower military ranks), but aside from all that, I would like to reply oh WOW no is Article 88 not about politics, nor does it restrict, in any way whatsoever, the expressing of political opinions. As noted a little further down in your own link:

If not personally contemptuous, adverse criticism of one of the officials or legislatures named in the article in the course of a political discussion, even though emphatically expressed, may not be charged as a violation of the article.

And that part isn't just the opinion of Some Person On The Internet, either -- it's scraped direct from the Manual for Courts-Martial (900-plus-page PDF), the Department of Defense's official implementation instructions for the UCMJ.
posted by Etrigan at 5:57 AM on December 31, 2018 [6 favorites]

And then there's the fact that the State Department is just ransacked.

State. EPA. IRS. FDA..It just goes on an on, the systematic destruction of federal services and departments. And we still have two more years of this. It does raise a very troubling issue...Will it ever be possible to re-build everything that has been (and will yet be) dismantled by this administration? Bring them back to the levels they were pre-Trump? I'm not optimistic.

Americans seems to be quite well trained to expect the lowest level of services from government. They are blind to how much is required to deliver those services, especially in departments that have little visible or direct effect on them day-to-day. So, the gutting of various departments has been largely invisible to most americans. It's the classic slow-boiling the frog.

However, efforts to rebuild the various gutted departments will definitely not go unnoticed; entities like FoxNews will make sure of that. Rebuilding will instead be cast as a gigantic expansion of government, costing the taxpayers billions. Somehow, I fear, the simple message that the Trump administration deliberately and dangerously wrecked the federal government will be missed by most, if indeed that message is even spoken. Democrats have shown themselves pretty ineffective when it comes to explaining things on a basic, street level.

My fear is, unless americans are successfully made aware of just how dangerous this administration is, and how deeply it is destroying america's ability to even survive (and why that should matter to them. after all, americans have been well-trained to hate government) any future efforts to restore functionality will not be met with welcome arms.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:43 AM on December 31, 2018 [69 favorites]

I don't know, my understanding was that we had one until 9/11.

I thought we got our asses handed to us during the Cold War, too? Our signals intelligence was great, human not so much. What I remember hearing (also hard to search for!) is that ever single one of our under cover operatives was discovered and killed within something like 6 months, while it took us years to find Soviet operatives and even then we didn’t get many.

Something about the export of American culture making us easier to emulate, and our insulation from other cultures making it hard for us to reciprocate. A few years training doesn’t make up for immersion since childhood, etc etc.

So! Germany! Get on that, please. Please?
posted by schadenfrau at 7:15 AM on December 31, 2018 [4 favorites]

The only thing that’s clear so far: The early polls being circulated will likely have as much relevance to the race’s outcome as learning Mandarin does to visiting Algeria.

The Atlantic: 10 New Factors That Will Shape the 2020 Democratic Primary
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:36 AM on December 31, 2018 [1 favorite]

The only thing that’s clear so far: The early polls being circulated will likely have as much relevance to the race’s outcome as learning Mandarin does to visiting Algeria.

So we should probably pay really close attention to those polls, because learning Mandarin to visit Algeria is more useful than you might think.
posted by Faint of Butt at 7:48 AM on December 31, 2018 [14 favorites]

Something about the export of American culture making us easier to emulate, and our insulation from other cultures making it hard for us to reciprocate. A few years training doesn’t make up for immersion since childhood, etc etc.

Somewhen in the mid 1970s the international school system, chock full of well traveled multilingual diplomat kids, was selected for an early grooming source pool that began in junior/senior year paving the way into the right programmes in college. About half were second gen, the rest were rubes.
posted by infini at 8:10 AM on December 31, 2018 [4 favorites]

... from the ashes of this administration we do have an opening to rebuild the civil service, political and governmental services, and our entire system of living together. Because we have to or we're going to all die.

Between single payer/Medicare for All and a Green New Deal we have a couple great opportunities to show people what government can accomplish with broad popular support and elected officials who aren't just off-the-books servants of corporate power. If we're able to push through some real results with either or both of those programs, I think we could turn public opinion on the usefulness of government around pretty quick.
posted by contraption at 8:36 AM on December 31, 2018 [13 favorites]

WaPo's Erica Werner:

NEWS: House Dems have decided on their approach to reopen government.
Will be a Homeland CR til Feb 8 (extending existing levels of $1.3b border funding) + full-year bills on the other 6, using the bipartisan Senate versions.

Expected to be made public later today.

Incidentally, Playboy WH correspondent Brian Karem observes: "POTUS tweet minutes ago claimed he was in the Oval Office. No marine there so that’s another lie. ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩" (And no Secret Service, either.) (pic)

c.f. this thread from Caroline Orr on Trump's constant lying and his spread of mis-/disinformation: "Lying has served as the glue of authoritarian states throughout history. Hannah Arendt understood this well. It's not the lie itself that is so poisonous, but the slow destruction of rational thought & erosion of shared truth that follows."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:43 AM on December 31, 2018 [38 favorites]

New York Times just posted a harrowing exposé of CIA-run death squads in Afghanistan:

As Mr. Khan was driven away for questioning, he watched his home go up in flames. Within were the bodies of two of his brothers and of his sister-in-law Khanzari, who was shot three times in the head. Villagers who rushed to the home found the burned body of her 3-year-old daughter, Marina, in a corner of a torched bedroom.

The units appear to be providing a more deniable extension of the policy of US special forces "night raids", with (even) "looser rules of engagement."

One of the most gruesome episodes examined by The Times was in Khogyani District, in Nangarhar Province. The forces handcuffed and hooded two brothers and, after a brief interrogation as their wives and children watched, both men were dragged away and executed in a corner of a bedroom that was then detonated over their heads, according to relatives and villagers who pulled the bodies out of the rubble.

When Times journalists arrived at the house 16 hours after the raid, the area was a scene of carnage with burned vehicles and crumbled walls. The family’s patriarch, Hajji Hassan Jan, 60, said that a security outpost overlooked their house, and that the district’s intelligence chief, who was a regular guest for dinner, had no answer for why the house was raided and his sons killed.

Still, he tried to guess: It was probably for feeding the Taliban. In rural Afghanistan, traditions of hospitality demand that you feed whoever knocks at your door. When those men are armed, there is little choice.

“The forces once asked my son, ‘Why do you feed the Taliban — why cook chicken for them, or bring them yogurt?’” Mr. Jan said. “My son told them: ‘We made chicken for them. If you come, we will make an entire lamb for you.’”

posted by grobstein at 8:51 AM on December 31, 2018 [29 favorites]

Incidentally, Playboy WH correspondent Brian Karem observes: "POTUS tweet minutes ago claimed he was in the Oval Office. No marine there so that’s another lie. ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩" (And no Secret Service, either.) (pic)

I want to see a media outlet brave enough to report this as "Trump confused about his own location, forgets what Oval Office looks like." Force the White House to defend it by saying "No, the President knows what the Oval Office looks like, he was just lying."
posted by jedicus at 8:53 AM on December 31, 2018 [65 favorites]

misterpatrick, quoting Brian Fogarty, Professor Emeritus of Sociology, St. Catherine University: Thank you for making universal health coverage a likelihood. It was only a few years ago that “Obamacare” was a Communist attack on American freedoms. Today it’s too conservative for the majority of Americans, and “Medicare for all” is the new mantra.

Affordable Care Act Can Stay In Effect While Under Appeal, Judge Says (NPR, December 31, 2018)

The federal judge in Texas who ruled the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional earlier this month said that the law can remain in effect while under appeal.

U.S. District Court Judge Reed O'Connor wrote in his ruling filed on Sunday that "many everyday Americans would otherwise face great uncertainty during the pendency of appeal."

But O'Connor still stands by his initial decision, he wrote, that a recent change in federal tax law that eliminated the penalty on uninsured people, in turn, invalidates the entire health care law, which is also referred to as Obamacare.

Before issuing the stay, O'Connor struck down the ACA on Dec. 14, siding with a group of 19 Republican attorneys general and a governor, led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

As Julie Rovner of Kaiser Health News wrote for NPR following the district court judges decision, "The plaintiffs argued that because the Supreme Court upheld the ACA in 2012 as a constitutional use of its taxing power, the elimination of the tax makes the rest of the law unconstitutional."

Judge O'Connor agreed with that reasoning.

Potential Impact of Texas v. U.S. Decision on Key Provisions of the Affordable Care Act (Kaiser Family Foundation, Dec 20, 2018)

More than eight years after enactment, ACA changes to the nation’s health system have become embedded and affect nearly everyone in some way. A court decision that invalidated the ACA, therefore, would also affect nearly everyone in at least some way. It would be a complex undertaking to try to disentangle it at this point. The following table summarizes the major provisions of the ACA, illustrating the breadth of its changes to the health care system and public attitudes towards those changes.

ACA is extensive in its impacts to health care and taxes. Uncertainty isn't only for those currently insured, but so many other companies and industries.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:54 AM on December 31, 2018 [14 favorites]

Speaking of future health-related uncertainties: EPA says regulation of mercury emissions not “appropriate and necessary” -- Current rule will be left in place, but action could prevent more stringent regulation. (Megan Geuss for Ars Technica, Dec. 29, 2018)

On Friday, the Trump administration's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that it did not think that current mercury emissions rules placed on coal-fired power plants were "appropriate and necessary," based on the agency's revised look at the costs and benefits of the rule.

The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule has been in place for years, and energy companies that own coal-fired power plants are already in compliance. The rule places limits on the amount of mercury that a power plant can emit. Mercury emitted into the air can end up in soil and water, where it has "toxic effects on the nervous, digestive and immune systems, and on lungs, kidneys, skin and eyes," in addition to causing developmental defects in children and babies, according to the World Health Organization.

But the coal industry has blamed the MATS rules for killing the power plants it sells to. Indeed, when the rule went into full effect in 2015, 30 percent of coal plant closures were tied to the cost of compliance with the rule. Today, coal plant closures continue not because of the MATS rule but because coal can't compete with cheaper and relatively cleaner natural gas.

Consequently, the Trump administration's EPA is leaving the current MATS rule in place while undercutting the justification for the rule in such a way that it could preclude more stringent mercury standards in the future and could possibly set the stage for looser rules in the future.

Emphasis mine -- that's just the Invisible Hand of the Free Market doing its thing, right? Conservative love that shit, don't they? Oh right -- like everything else they back, it's only good if it benefits them directly. Grifters gonna grift.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:58 AM on December 31, 2018 [16 favorites]

So I've complained a lot about the tons of articles and polls ranking 2020 candidates, and that's because they have had very little substance. I've been waiting to see anyone we've discussed do exactly what Warren did, and state that they actually want to explore the idea of running for 2020, not just that they "haven't ruled it out," before I actually give any credibility to anything discussing a hypothetical run.

Despite some of the complications from Warren re: DNA testing controversy, etc - It makes me very happy to see someone we've been talking about for months finally say they actually want to explore it. I'm hoping this means we'll see some more clarity in the field soon, and that some of the people who "haven't ruled it out" just go ahead and rule it out.

The Atlantic article that ChurchHatesTucker linked above is another one worth reading, as it actually is well thought out, and has quite a bit of substance, differentiates between people who are running at present and "potential candidates," and doesn't just throw a bunch of names out there based on rumor - and provides some of the most critical commentary of what could affect 2020 based on what we actually know today, and not just opinion polling.

More of this from the media, please - and less of the "here's how 2020 would play out if these hypothetical candidates were all going to be voted on at this exact moment in time", choice frustrating quotes from Biden, etc.
posted by MysticMCJ at 8:59 AM on December 31, 2018

The context is climate change, but I think I've found my favorite summary of political debate in 2018:

Honestly, don’t bother. You can’t reason someone out of a position they didn’t reason themselves into.
posted by jeremias at 9:05 AM on December 31, 2018 [20 favorites]

"The plaintiffs argued that because the Supreme Court upheld the ACA in 2012 as a constitutional use of its taxing power, the elimination of the tax makes the rest of the law unconstitutional."

Judge O'Connor agreed with that reasoning.

I'm confused by this reasoning. I thought the whole reason that the ACA was challenged in the first place was because there was a mandate to be insured OR face a tax penalty. The idea being that it was wrong for the government to force citizens to purchase a product. And then the Supreme Court upheld the right of the government to levy taxes for that purpose. But now that that there is no longer a tax penalty for disregarding the mandate, that is, nobody's being forced to buy insurance out of pocket, then what is the constitutional issue at play which would cause the ACA to be invalidated? Obviously I'm mistaken about something but not sure what.
posted by xigxag at 9:05 AM on December 31, 2018 [7 favorites]

Metafilter: Obviously I'm mistaken about something but not sure what.
posted by Kibbutz at 9:23 AM on December 31, 2018 [31 favorites]

In short: The mandate is still on the books, even though the penalty/tax for not having active health insurance was reduced to $0. O'Connor's decision says that a tax of $0 is not a tax at all, so the mandate is no longer an exercise of Congress' taxing powers. Since the Supreme Court only upheld the mandate inasmuch as it was a tax, if it's not a tax that meas it's unconstitutional. Then he says that because the Congress of 2010 considered the mandate to be inseparable from the ACA as a whole, if the mandate is gone the entire law must be struck down with it.

If you're noticing a lot of leaps of logic and specious reasoning in that paragraph, it's because O'Connor is a partisan hack. That's why they filed the case in his court at all.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:27 AM on December 31, 2018 [26 favorites]

Yeah, it’s not sound reasoning. Lots of articles have been written about how Judge Reed’s arguments are faulty. One UMich Law Professor called it “Insanity in print.”

The judge’s decision forces some serious mental gymnastics to even accept it as sincerely wrong. It seems more than likely that it’s just a partisan judge’s big plate o’ venting, with a side dish of an attempt to send the ACA back to the SCOTUS under flimsy pretenses, so that with Gorsuch and Kavanaugh now on the Court, they can overturn the ACA based on partisan animus, rather than any real jurisprudence.
posted by darkstar at 9:31 AM on December 31, 2018 [10 favorites]

But now that that there is no longer a tax penalty for disregarding the mandate, that is, nobody's being forced to buy insurance out of pocket, then what is the constitutional issue at play which would cause the ACA to be invalidated? Obviously I'm mistaken about something but not sure what.

No, you're exactly right according to basically everyone besides the judge here. For example, we can ask Jonathan Adler, who has spent much of the last decade on legal work to fight the ACA: "Judge O'Connor has issued a final judgment in Texas v. US, which will enable appeal of his judgment that entire ACA is unlawful. In accompanying opinion, he shows he still doesn't understand standing law."

Judge O'Connor decided that the individual plaintiffs have standing to sue, even though absolutely no government harm will come to them if they don't buy insurance because the penalty was set at $0. The only injury they allege is that they felt compelled to purchase insurance anyway, even though there's no penalty. Even ardent conservative legal critics of the ACA are pretty darn clear that you can't sue unless there's some injury that you're seeking to remedy, and "the government fined me $0" does not count as an injury.
posted by zachlipton at 9:31 AM on December 31, 2018 [17 favorites]

I can think of no better way to ensure the creation of "terrorist cells" than to do exactly what the CIA has been doing over in Afghanistan - I don't know what other outcome you would expect from brutally murdering civilians and their family in surprise raids.

> Those fighting forces, also referred to as counterterrorism pursuit teams, are recruited, trained and equipped by C.I.A. agents or contractors who work closely with them

Ah, of course. Not that the CIA itself would be above this, but what better way to commit atrocities with abandon while maintaining plausible deniability than via independent contractors.
posted by MysticMCJ at 9:32 AM on December 31, 2018 [15 favorites]

says that a tax of $0 is not a tax at all

So... would this also then impact people who reduce the amount they owe in taxes to 0 by the end of the year? I get that this clown is dancing to someone else's tune, but perhaps the composer of said tune could have some fucking forethought?
posted by Slackermagee at 9:33 AM on December 31, 2018 [1 favorite]

So... would this also then impact people who reduce the amount they owe in taxes to 0 by the end of the year? I get that this clown is dancing to someone else's tune, but perhaps the composer of said tune could have some fucking forethought?

These are the composers of Climate Change Is A Scam Because Snow Still Exists In B-Flat Major, so I'm afraid forethought is right out.

Other side effects if this decision survives, precedent-wise, would include -- as mentioned above -- people being able to sue the government over non-binding statements of principle like "it's good to get health insurance" as well as a frankly insane doctrine of severability (that is, when striking down part of a statute brings down the entire thing) where Congress can repeal a law by rewriting one line of it in a way that a prior Congress would have opposed.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:37 AM on December 31, 2018 [2 favorites]

Those fighting forces, also referred to as counterterrorism pursuit teams, are recruited, trained and equipped by C.I.A. agents or contractors who work closely with them

previously...
posted by Buntix at 9:41 AM on December 31, 2018 [2 favorites]

It seems more than likely that it’s just a partisan judge’s big plate o’ venting, with a side dish of an attempt to send the ACA back to the SCOTUS under flimsy pretenses, so that with Gorsuch and Kavanaugh now on the Court, they can overturn the ACA based on partisan animus, rather than any real jurisprudence.

One thing that's important to keep in mind here is that despite Kennedy's replacement by Kavanaugh being all kinds of bad for many different cases, Kennedy wasn't the swing vote on the ACA; that was Roberts. So all five justices who voted to uphold the law are still there.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 9:43 AM on December 31, 2018 [25 favorites]

Then he says that because the Congress of 2010 considered the mandate to be inseparable from the ACA as a whole, if the mandate is gone the entire law must be struck down with it.

Which, even if it is true, is obviously belied by the later reduction of the tax penalty to $0. The later Congress thought that a $0 tax penalty was fine. The idea that a court can decide that what the 2010 Congress thought about the tax penalty can be used to strike down the whole law, as amended and more or less eliminated by the later Congress, is batshit pants-on-head crazy. There's no way in hell that the Congress that eliminated the tax penalty intended the $0 individual mandate to be vital to the entire law; the 2010 Congress' opinion on the matter can't sanely be used to bind the later Congress.

It's judicial activism in the plainest possible form.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:46 AM on December 31, 2018 [9 favorites]

TMP announces the 2018 Golden Dukes Winners, which honor the public figures who managed the most corruption, made the craziest comments, and carried out the most craven deeds, all in the spirit of former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, the father of the modern political scandal.
The 7 categories are:
Best Scandal — General Interest
Best Scandal — Local Venue
Meritorious Achievement In The Crazy
Best Conspiracy Theory
Best Campaign Gaffe
Literary Achievement In 280 Characters
Outstanding Ineptitude In The Cabinet
posted by growabrain at 9:58 AM on December 31, 2018 [8 favorites]

MAJOR BREAKING NEWS UPDATE MUST CREDIT SCALEFREE

House GOP quietly ends probe into FBI's 2016 decisions

House Republicans say more investigation is needed into decisions made by the FBI and the Justice Department in 2016 as they brought an unceremonious end to their yearlong look at the department's handling of probes into Democrat Hillary Clinton's emails and Donald Trump's ties to Russia.

In a letter released Friday evening, less than a week before Republicans cede the House majority to Democrats, the chairmen of two House committees described what they said was the "seemingly disparate treatment" the two probes received during the presidential election in 2016 and called on the Justice Department to appoint a special counsel to investigate further.

House Judiciary Chairman Robert Goodlatte and Rep. Trey Gowdy, House Oversight and Government Reform chairman, both of whom are retiring next week, sent a letter to the Justice Department and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell saying they reviewed thousands of documents and conducted interviews that "revealed troubling facts which exacerbated our initial questions and concerns." Republicans have said since the election that they believe Justice officials were biased against President Trump when they started an investigation into his ties to Russia and cleared Clinton in a separate probe into her email use.

The wrapping up of the congressional investigation, done in a letter and without a full final report, was a quiet end to a probe that was conducted mostly behind closed doors but also in public as Republican lawmakers often criticized interview subjects afterward and suggested they were conspiring against Trump.

posted by scalefree at 10:00 AM on December 31, 2018 [14 favorites]

Noam Chomsky suggests Trump’s “dedication” to destroying human life is even worse than Hitler.

From Democracy Now: “There have been plenty of monsters in the past, plenty of them. But you can’t find one who was dedicated, with passion, to destroying the prospects for organized human life. Hitler was horrible enough, but not that.”

Chomsky has described the Republican Party as the “most dangerous organization in human history,” due to its policies on climate change and nuclear weapons, and he said Trump was single-highhandedly making the world more dangerous for the human species.
posted by growabrain at 10:10 AM on December 31, 2018 [30 favorites]

2018: The Year In Ideas
posted by The Whelk at 10:15 AM on December 31, 2018 [2 favorites]

Natasha Bertrand updates on another of Mueller's cooperating witnesses: "Interesting. Government just filed a joint status report under seal for Sam Patten, a Manafort/Kilimnik associate who pleaded guilty in August to failing to register as a foreign agent and admitted to steering foreign funds to Trump's inaugural. He's been cooperating ever since." (pic)

(Bertrand previously on Patten and Manafort/Kilimnik for the Atlantic: A Suspected Russian Spy, With Curious Ties to Washington.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:25 AM on December 31, 2018 [11 favorites]

I was wrong, y’all. When Sonny Perdue was appointed Secretary of Agriculture, I thought he was the least-bad of the lot. That’s not true, he may just have the least-awful public persona, and he’s just clever enough to understand how best to funnel a few small bones to the base while gutting the parts of the Department that don’t directly benefit the MAGA-hatters. The damage, as discussed above, is going to take years and years to repair. The loss of institutional memory and expertise is bad, and I expect it to really snowball once the government re-opens and retirement paperwork can be processed again. Ol’ Sonny, I give him credit, he sure pulled the wool over my eyes. Well, I see him for what he really is: a joyful participant in the dismantling of an institution built up over more than 150 years for the purpose of feeding, clothing, and housing people all over the world, a mission that I think is pretty darned noble.
posted by wintermind at 10:39 AM on December 31, 2018 [24 favorites]

BungaDunga: The idea that a court can decide that what the 2010 Congress thought about the tax penalty can be used to strike down the whole law, as amended and more or less eliminated by the later Congress, is batshit pants-on-head crazy. There's no way in hell that the Congress that eliminated the tax penalty intended the $0 individual mandate to be vital to the entire law; the 2010 Congress' opinion on the matter can't sanely be used to bind the later Congress.

Really? It was the Republican's (hastily thrown together) tax bill that eliminated the Individual Mandate for health insurance last year, and Reed O'Connor, a federal judge on the United States District Court for the Northern District of Texas, who was nominated by President George W. Bush, sided with a group of 19 Republican attorneys general and a governor, led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

That's a number of Texas and Republican links, from the party of Repeal [now] and Replace [later?], who failed to do either through Congress alone. Now, with Democrats controlling the House, I imagine dreams of "repeal and replace" are gone, so this seems like a possible path to kill ACA. But, you know, with due process, we wouldn't want to subject "many everyday Americans [to] great uncertainty during the pendency of appeal."
posted by filthy light thief at 10:46 AM on December 31, 2018 [2 favorites]

“There have been plenty of monsters in the past, plenty of them. But you can’t find one who was dedicated, with passion, to destroying the prospects for organized human life. Hitler was horrible enough, but not that.”

Please remember that he was made a TV star by the same producer that brought "Survivor" to America. The first 'Reality TV' Show to steal the line from Highlander "There can be only one," and an inspiration to all that followed, ESPECIALLY "The Apprentice". (A non-trivial factoid: in the original Swedish version of Survivor, the first player to be 'voted off the island' committed suicide before the show aired... an obvious inspiration for Mark Burnett AND Trump) In other Pop Culture Referential stuff, I wonder how much Trump envies Thanos and spends his time in the Oval Office just snapping his fingers. He's a monster for sure, but a comic book one.
posted by oneswellfoop at 10:52 AM on December 31, 2018 [5 favorites]

Really? It was the Republican's (hastily thrown together) tax bill that eliminated the Individual Mandate for health insurance last year

Sure, but making the argument that "Congress knew the mandate was vital but voted to eliminate the penalty anyway while voting to keep everything else because they were making a bank shot and intended the Courts to later strike down the rest of the law because of Congress' action such that the legislative branch didn't have to take the big political hit for killing ACA" seems like one unlikely to prevail before any judge not as... interesting... as Reed O'Connor.

Any reasonable judge is likely to rule that Congress had a bill before it to undo much of the ACA and voted not to do that while also voting to reduce the penalty to 0, therefore it is the plain reading of Congress' actions that they intended the ACA to go forward with all the protections in place but without the mandate.
posted by Justinian at 10:52 AM on December 31, 2018 [7 favorites]

New York Times just posted a harrowing exposé of CIA-run death squads in Afghanistan:

Like the Epstein article, or any number of OMGWTF articles that constantly thrash around the MegaThreads in-betwixt the Klownwig's heinous mad acts, this is a rare peak-of-the-mountain address of an issue by corporate media that will fade all too soon.

And you all love you some ACA wonkery which, $ORGANIZING_PRINCIPLE bless you, makes my eyes roll back in some flava of despair. Plus 2020 - if that sewage gets in here before 2020 I might beg for in-depth analysis of medical insurance.

Yesterday there was a Post On The Internet (on the Internet you guys!) that was commenting on Gen. Kelly's exciting admission that he'd been lying the whole time and yeah shit's way fucked up in there. It was in reply to a note that this is ""bigger than Watergate, and in realtime" to discuss how Iran-Contra was, in fact, way bigger than Watergate and how it's a cautionary tale for our times given how little anything changed from it.

Reposted in it's full concise glory, search for full phrases to find the orignal:

Iran-Contra illegally sold millions of dollars of American weapons to Iran, which was the subject to a US trade embargo. This money was then funneled to the Contras in Nicaragua to overthrow their government in violation of the Boland Amendment. This was not just gun-running; by the time the sales were uncovered, over 1,500 assorted missiles and anti-tank weapons had been sold to Iran. Just like this current Trump affair, Iran-Contra Affair had a Special Counsel, Lawrence Walsh, investigating not just one, but two presidents: Reagan and Bush 1. Throughout the Special Counsel investigation, Bush refused to cooperate with Walsh, and refused to turn over his diary to establish a time line.

During National Security Advisor John Poindexter's trial, Walsh infamously compelled now-former-president Ronald Reagan to testify under oath for seven hours regarding his awareness and role in Iran-Contra. This testimony still is unparalleled in current events, and was a humbling moment for the American psyche to see glimpses of Reagan's increasing mental incapacity as he struggled through cross examination.

Oliver North from the National Security Council admitted to falsifying documents with assistance from his secretary, Fawn Hall, who testified she typed the documents, and helped with the shredding. She said there was so much shredding in 1983 it would jam government shredding machines. Hall claimed to resort to smuggling documents in her clothing out of the fucking White House so investigators wouldn't find original, unaltered documentation.

Throughout the entire Special Counsel investigation, Walsh was criticized heavily for conducting a political witchhunt, accused of prosecutorial misconduct, and for his skyrocketing expenses. At times he slept out of his office to save on expenses. In Walsh's Book, "Firewall: The Iran-Contra Conspiracy and Cover-Up", he states "While struggling to learn the truth and unravel a wilful coverup that extended all the way to the Oval Office, my staff and I had to fend off attacks from members of Congress and the president's Cabinet and to break through the barriers erected by the national security community."

How the Special Counsel investigation ended for Iran-Contra was equally shambolic: on Christmas Eve 1992, President Bush 1 pardoned five administration officials found guilty by the Special Prosecutor's investigations. Bush also pardoned Caspar Weinberger, his Sec Def, even though Weinberger had not been brought to trial yet.

Bob Woodward made his name exposing Watergate. Just as Trump has a Bob Woodward book: "Fear: Trump in the White House", Bob Woodward was tasked on Iran-Contra to write Veil: The Secret Wars of the CIA 1981-1987.

imo Iran-Contra is the "biggest thing since watergate" becuase it involved multiple presidencies, The White House and the Pentagon, theft of military assets, the perpetrators were indemnified from the Special Prosecutor's findings, and the agreement with Iran violated basic principles espoused by the US Government: We do not negotiate with terrorists.

(Credit: user calicosculpin, reddit)

So as we barrel into the closing oeuvres of the Mueller investigation, let us do Whatever It Is We Can Do to make this one stick.
posted by petebest at 10:55 AM on December 31, 2018 [43 favorites]

Plus 2020 - if that sewage gets in here before 2020 I might beg for in-depth analysis of medical insurance.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the debates are gonna start in a couple months so, uh, better get your beggin' shoes ready!
posted by Justinian at 11:02 AM on December 31, 2018 [2 favorites]

Any reasonable judge is likely to rule that Congress had a bill before it to undo much of the ACA and voted not to do that while also voting to reduce the penalty to 0, therefore it is the plain reading of Congress' actions that they intended the ACA to go forward with all the protections in place but without the mandate.

It's super weird because if Congress had actually voted to delete the mandate entirely, and not just zeroing out the penalty, there would be no constitutional question at all, and no severability question either! But instead there's a kind of dangling mandate (with no penalty) and the judge used that dangling section to invalidate the whole thing. But if Congress thought that the law could go forward without a penalty, it doesn't make any sense to think that it still believed that the dangling-no-penalty mandate was a vital part of the law, despite leaving it in.

Removing the penalty sure looks like Congress deciding that actually the mandate is not important enough to enforce with a monetary penalty. So if it's not important enough to levy a penalty over, how can it possibly be important enough to be inseverable?! it makes no sense
posted by BungaDunga at 11:05 AM on December 31, 2018

it makes no sense

Yeah, this is the consensus view of O'Connor's ruling among liberal, moderate, and conservative legal analysts. Hell, there's a bunch of problems with it we haven't even touched. For example he ruled the plaintiffs had standing because the mandate caused them irreparable harm. The mandate whose penalty was reduced to 0. Yes, the $0 penalty caused them irreparable harm. 🤷

A lot of legal analysts aren't even convinced this will reach the SC. They think it will be overturned on standing and the SC will refuse cert. I don't have the knowledge to evaluate that position.
posted by Justinian at 11:10 AM on December 31, 2018 [13 favorites]

I think we can just consider that decision as Judge O'Connor's application for appointment to a higher court while there's still as Republican President & Senate.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:58 AM on December 31, 2018 [8 favorites]

Anecdotal, but I check the replies to @realDonaldTrump 's Twitter posts from time to time, and it appears to me that the quantity of MAGA-bro replies has diminished by 99% or so over, say, the past 6 months. Anyone else notice this?

If it's real do you suppose that it's just that the Russian spammers/bots have pulled-out (now that they've done what they came to do), or is support from a big chunk of actual Americans who know how to use the Internet gone away?
posted by ZenMasterThis at 12:01 PM on December 31, 2018 [8 favorites]

Anecdotal, but I check the replies to @realDonaldTrump 's Twitter posts from time to time, and it appears to me that the quantity of MAGA-bro replies has diminished by 99% or so over, say, the past 6 months. Anyone else notice this?

Trump complains Twitter has removed people from his account
posted by zakur at 12:10 PM on December 31, 2018 [8 favorites]

Remember the Alabama sheriff who stole the $750,000 food budget for inmates and bought hisself a ol' beachhouse because that's legal to do in Alabama? (/dramatic_pause) well he lost re-election, somehow, and now it turns out he stole an additional $1.5 Meeelyun dollars in ICE detainee funds as well.

And - AND - it turns out that this particular form of outright corruption and embezzlement may, possibly, NOT be legal! Hoo doggies!
posted by petebest at 12:22 PM on December 31, 2018 [57 favorites]

An alternative explanation (well, complimentary to ZenMasterThis's hypothesis) is that now that they've helped get Trump elected, it will more effectively reduce the US's standing in the world and cause more chaos that Putin thinks he can take advantage of to not just cease Russia's support of Trump but to let incriminating evidence trickle out into the world that will help bring him down.

It would also acknowledge the reality that Trump as a Russian asset isn't sustainable for much longer which makes sense to me. If you know your asset is going to get burned either way, you may as well make sure it gets burned in the most advantageous way you can manage.

I'm not in any way suggesting that since it appears that Putin wants Trump to go down that we should instead prop him up. It just feels like we're doing exactly what our adversary wants which makes me think we should do something else but I can't imagine what it could be other than uncovering the truth as quickly and as thoroughly as possible.
posted by VTX at 12:28 PM on December 31, 2018 [13 favorites]

So here is kind of a scary thought: The USA is going to hold the presidency of the G7 in 2020. The presidency also hosts the summit (which while the date is still TBD is usually in the summer sometime).
posted by Mitheral at 12:30 PM on December 31, 2018 [3 favorites]

Fun. It looks like Zinke's terrible decision to keep the parks open during shutdowns is starting to have consequences.

Hetch Hetchy and Mariposa Grove are now closed due to lack of restrooms and resulting impacts from human waste. People entering closed areas are being cited.

Hetch Hetchy, is, of course, San Francisco's water supply. All over the national park system, there are lots of people, and no services, including no bathrooms. It is going to be a real, literal, mess if things keep going. There is a reason that they closed the parks during the 2013 and 1995 shutdowns, and it didn't have anything to do with politics. It was the only way that they were going to be functional again when funding returned.
posted by sock_full_of_rocks at 12:50 PM on December 31, 2018 [35 favorites]

Who are these people going into the parks and making a big mess!!??

C’mon!
posted by notyou at 1:17 PM on December 31, 2018 [1 favorite]

@charliearchy

Jill Stein's 2016 campaign manager, David Cobb, is now earning $11,280 a month in 2016 recount money, according to Stein's latest FEC report.

That's a 50 percent raise, per the Dec. 21 filing. Other staffers received a 33 percent increase in salary.
salary. http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00581199/1302077/sb/ALL) docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…

posted by Joe in Australia at 1:28 PM on December 31, 2018 [14 favorites]

Who are these people going into the parks and making a big mess!!??
Same people who elected the cheeto. Elect a clown, expect a circus. We are destroying our Earth, literally.

I've heard of Joshua trees being cut down for firewood, and driving ... wherever. JT is closing its campgrounds as of 1/2. Red Rock was a mess the days I was there last week, and the gate did get closed, which just pushed a chaotic mess out onto a state highway.
posted by Dashy at 1:31 PM on December 31, 2018 [7 favorites]

I was attending a pre-Xmas dinner with a group of friends and we were talking about politics, but in a good way, because we’re all either progressives or centrists able to think rationally and have a respectful discussion. At one point, we got to lamenting that there are no actual superheroes to intervene in world events, and that it comes down to each of us having the responsibility to become the hero we need.

As I said then, I’ve recently come to realize that it’s probably a good thing I don’t have actual superpowers, or an Infinity Gauntlet, or whatever. Because, although I am generally a good man and conscientious and compassionate sometimes to a fault, I recognize within me a deep well of anger and frustration at the injustice of the world that, given supernatural abilities, might tempt me to intemperance.

Roger Stone better hope I never get bitten by a radioactive spider, is all I’m sayin’.
posted by darkstar at 1:49 PM on December 31, 2018 [31 favorites]

Who are these people going into the parks and making a big mess!!??

The same people who would be going into the parks and making a mess when there was no government shutdown.

I was attending a pre-Xmas dinner with a group of friends and we were talking about politics, but in a good way, because we’re all either progressives or centrists able to think rationally and have a respectful discussion. At one point, we got to lamenting that there are no actual superheroes to intervene in world events, and that it comes down to each of us having the responsibility to become the hero we need.

Someone a while back wrote an essay in response to that Mister Rogers "Look for the helpers" meme, and how people who posted it in response to any national tragedy were overlooking the point that Mister Rogers had suggested that as something that parents could say to children, and that it was never meant to be a comfort for the adults themselves. It made me think that Mister Rogers should have posted a follow-up clarification for his grown-up neighbors - that the point was that when we were children, we should look for the helpers, but now that we're grown up, it's our duty to be the helpers.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:02 PM on December 31, 2018 [105 favorites]

NYT, Trump to Allow Months for Troop Withdrawal in Syria, Officials Say

President Trump has agreed to give the military about four months to withdraw the 2,000 United States troops in Syria, administration officials said on Monday, backtracking from his abrupt order two weeks ago that the military pull out within 30 days.

Mr. Trump confirmed on Twitter that troops would “slowly” be withdrawn, but complained that he got little credit for the move after a fresh round of criticism from retired Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal and revelations from the departing White House chief of staff, John F. Kelly, himself a retired Marine general, about the president’s impulsive decision-making.
...
Military officials have declined to specify the timing of the departure, partly for operational security reasons and partly because many details are still quite fluid, and officials recognize that Mr. Trump could change his mind at any moment and speed up the departure.

Love to walk back the President’s impulsive decisions after dealing they have consequences.
posted by zachlipton at 2:12 PM on December 31, 2018 [8 favorites]

growabrain: Noam Chomsky suggests Trump’s “dedication” to destroying human life is even worse than Hitler.

Chomsky is usually smart. That is dumb. Hitler made specific plans - and carried them out to a horrific degree - to enslave and destroy entire groups of people, millions of people.

Trump isn't dedicated to much more than making sure people are paying attention to him. Maybe his idiocy will lead to nuclear and climate disasters, but you can't say that that's what he's dedicated to.
posted by clawsoon at 2:13 PM on December 31, 2018 [38 favorites]

It made me think that Mister Rogers should have posted a follow-up clarification for his grown-up neighbors - that the point was that when we were children, we should look for the helpers, but now that we're grown up, it's our duty to be the helpers.

I like Rebecca Solnit's advice about dealing with the dread and uncertainty of these times: "Don't ask what's going to happen; be what happens."
posted by contraption at 2:14 PM on December 31, 2018 [58 favorites]

Mr. Trump confirmed on Twitter that troops would “slowly” be withdrawn, but complained that he got little credit for the move

you don't get credit if you don't do the work, Donald! it's like turning in your homework three weeks late, plagiarizing it from wikipedia, and demanding credit
posted by BungaDunga at 2:38 PM on December 31, 2018 [4 favorites]

it's like turning in your homework three weeks late, plagiarizing it from wikipedia, and demanding credit?
...which he has done successfully all his life. And THAT, more than anything else, is why he is admired and envied by 40% of Americans.
posted by oneswellfoop at 2:54 PM on December 31, 2018 [18 favorites]

Ted Lieu:

Tomorrow:

- GOP House bill with $5b for @POTUS vanity wall dies

- No more stupid House hearings on Hillary's emails or regulating free speech of internet companies

- Stephen Miller's fantasy of changing the laws to restrict legal immigration ends in a whimper

#HappyNewYear2019
posted by growabrain at 3:02 PM on December 31, 2018 [118 favorites]

Thorzdad, from this morning:

State. EPA. IRS. FDA..It just goes on an on, the systematic destruction of federal services and departments. And we still have two more years of this. It does raise a very troubling issue...Will it ever be possible to re-build everything that has been (and will yet be) dismantled by this administration? Bring them back to the levels they were pre-Trump? I'm not optimistic.

What I'm hoping for in my heart of hearts is that the outgoing Obama administrators kept the briefing documents they developed over the last two years of their tenure, and the administration subsequent to this one can refer to them on how to run their bureaucracies. These issues are discussed in Michael Lewis' The Fifth Risk, though if you're already troubled by the thoughts I'd recommend against reading that clear-eyed assessment of just how dire the situation is/can be/will become.

FWIW, there has never been an effort put into presidential/cabinet administration transition like the one Obama's team made; maybe one day there will be a subsequent government worthy (uh....capable?) of implementing it.
posted by carsonb at 3:07 PM on December 31, 2018 [12 favorites]

Who are these people going into the parks and making a big mess!!??

People treat campgrounds and parks pretty horribly in general. The amount of trash I pick up on any given named and mapped trail is just depressing. I know I'm not the only one who patrols other people's trash on almost every hike, and that those of us who do outnumber the litterers, and there's still so much trash because: entropy and tragedy of the commons.

I spent nearly 3 years working/living in the crown jewel of Washington's State Park system and witnessed an endless parade of cars and RVs that show up and just generally abuse the terrain from too many unsupervised kids climbing all over anything bigger than a busy to entire parties chucking beer cans in to the brush to people trying to burn green wood and groundfall and understory or trying to chop down trees.

There's also the mostly unspoken issue of how homelessness intersects these parks and resources intersects with homelessness both as an abuse and/or resource. Most parks have rules or code that camping isn't supposed to be a residency and that it is for recreational and temporary purposes only. It isn't meant to be used as housing.

Yet this is happening all the time. I was doing it and the rangers turned a blind eye to me because I had a clean, quiet camp and I followed the rules. I benefited from it immensely in the way that nature is healing. I was even sometimes a snitch when things went wrong. I've also met veterans who rely on their free park passes and SSI and the just cruise from park to park living in RVs or vans, and they're mostly invisible.

This doesn't even begin to talk about the class of visitors who show up with gigantic RVs and generators and don't seem to enjoy or respect the outdoors at all.
posted by loquacious at 3:09 PM on December 31, 2018 [58 favorites]

I spent nearly 3 years working/living in the crown jewel of Washington's State Park system and witnessed an endless parade of cars and RVs that show up and just generally abuse the terrain from too many unsupervised kids climbing all over anything bigger than a busy to entire parties chucking beer cans in to the brush to people trying to burn green wood and groundfall and understory or trying to chop down trees.

Now that the easy access campsites are behind locked gates, those careless campers are heading deeper into the woods to the sites that are less accessible. The more remote a campsite, the less likely it's routinely patrolled by rangers/volunteers, and the more likely it's trashed. ...The more likely it's ground 0 for the next forest fire. ...The more likely it's never the same again for those who appreciated it before....

Aside from the use/access issues, there's also the huge corps of volunteer organizations that worked under the aegis of the USFS that cannot operate while the government is shut down. I'm supposed to be planning my org's monthly trailwork day right now, but if the shutdown continues we won't be able to do any work. And if I manage to organize some under-the-radar work days I'm not allowed to use the tools and access provided by my org.
posted by carsonb at 3:21 PM on December 31, 2018 [19 favorites]

Joint statement from Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer released earlier today:
“While President Trump drags the nation into Week Two of the Trump Shutdown and sits in the White House and tweets, without offering any plan that can pass both chambers of Congress, Democrats are taking action to lead our country out of this mess. This legislation reopens government services, ensures workers get the paychecks they’ve earned and restores certainty to the lives of the American people.

“The President is using the government shutdown to try to force an expensive and ineffective wall upon the American people, but Democrats have offered two bills which separate the arguments over the wall from the government shutdown. The first bill would reopen all government agencies except for the Department of Homeland Security – not taking a position on the President’s wall. It would simply continue the funding levels and language that both parties have already supported. The second bill would extend the Department of Homeland Security’s funding through February 8th, which Republicans already supported in recent weeks.

“If Leader McConnell and Senate Republicans refuse to support the first bill, then they are complicit with President Trump in continuing the Trump shutdown and in holding the health and safety of the American people and workers’ paychecks hostage over the wall.

“It would be the height of irresponsibility and political cynicism for Senate Republicans to now reject the same legislation they have already supported.

“Once the Senate passes this legislation and puts us on a path to reopening government, the President must come to his senses and immediately sign it into law.”
posted by Bella Donna at 3:48 PM on December 31, 2018 [71 favorites]

“It would be the height of irresponsibility and political cynicism for Senate Republicans to now reject the same legislation they have already supported."

But as we know, Republicans tend toward being irresponsible, cynical, and corrupt so who knows what the Republicans will do. Still, I appreciate that the Democrats are saying it out loud. Go Nancy! And Chuck, please don't screw us again, okay?

These are my last comments here until February, at a minimum. Be kind to each other and the mods. Hugs to all, and Happy New Year.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:54 PM on December 31, 2018 [19 favorites]

Sean McElwee: if you’re frantically trying to book an NYE restaurant reservation, you’ll understand why 30-day voter registration deadlines arbitrarily disenfranchise millions of voters
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:15 PM on December 31, 2018 [55 favorites]

Are government agencies forbidden from planning for shutdowns, like how you’re not supposed to plan the monarch’s funeral before they’re dead? Because otherwise, given the last few years, it’s some form of malpractice not to have a shutdown annex to your contingency plan.

No, and we have such a plan as a framework, but we've interpreted things (not sure at what level) to avoid pre-designating specific people as essential. There are a few very senior people who are classified something like that in their job description, I forget the word used, but it's for emergency response-type things and the need to be always available. And there are positions that will always be essential, like X number of security guards, Y number of radiological technicians, that kind of thing.

For furloughs, we have a procedure we're getting pretty good at (sadly), but the specific names will always depend on the work that's currently going on and can't be pre-designated too far in advance.
posted by ctmf at 5:29 PM on December 31, 2018 [3 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump: The Democrats will probably submit a Bill, being cute as always, which gives everything away but gives NOTHING to Border Security, namely the Wall. You see, without the Wall there can be no Border Security - the Tech “stuff” is just, by comparison, meaningless bells & whistles......Remember this. Throughout the ages some things NEVER get better and NEVER change. You have Walls and you have Wheels. It was ALWAYS that way and it will ALWAYS be that way! Please explain to the Democrats that there can NEVER be a replacement for a good old fashioned WALL!

When confefe happened, it was at least broadly explainable. This is just the utterly inexplicable output of our President's broken brain as he spends his night alone, ranting about Mexico, Walls, and Wheels. This is the guy with the nuclear codes. We could have had taco trucks on every corner. Happy New Year.
posted by zachlipton at 6:03 PM on December 31, 2018 [68 favorites]

Military officials have declined to specify the timing of the departure, partly for operational security reasons and partly because many details are still quite fluid

Hey, I recognize that! That's official-speak for "All I know so far is what I want, not how or if it's even possible." I use it all the time. It sounds more professional than "fuck, I don't know, I'm working on it."
posted by ctmf at 6:13 PM on December 31, 2018 [17 favorites]

Metafilter: Throughout the ages some things NEVER get better and NEVER change.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:19 PM on December 31, 2018 [13 favorites]

The remainder of your leave is converted to furlough, and you can't be on the essential list. Last time, we were doing that again and payroll changed their mind while we were handing out the furlough letters.

Note that this isn't quite the generous move it sounds like - leave represents a debt payroll owes to you one way or the other. If they don't let you take it, they still owe it to you. This is a good way to burn off that debt without actually being down a person during working hours later.
posted by ctmf at 6:21 PM on December 31, 2018

A Trump family aide tried to get HUD colleague fired by name-dropping Eric Trump (WaPo)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:30 PM on December 31, 2018 [6 favorites]

They say it’s old technology - but so is the wheel.

Looks like Ben Carson just might get his pyramid project approved. Sure, they’re old school, but has anyone come up with a better way to store grain?
posted by snofoam at 6:38 PM on December 31, 2018 [41 favorites]

Trump 2020: Wheels Within Wheels
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:42 PM on December 31, 2018 [4 favorites]

Throughout the ages some things NEVER get better and NEVER change. You have Walls and you have Wheels. It was ALWAYS that way and it will ALWAYS be that way!

Oh good lord. That sounds like the rantings of some senile milfic writer that thinks that having an article in Analog magazine 20 years ago makes them an expert on history. It's like something a drunken Jerry Pournell or Poul Anderson might blurt out on a panel on the third day of a convention.

We have a new "Of Thud and Blunder", and its coming from the White House.
posted by happyroach at 6:43 PM on December 31, 2018 [22 favorites]

It does, and properly built, almost 100%! They say it’s old technology - but so is the wheel.

Michael Braun, the former chief of operations for the D.E.A., told me a story about the construction of a high-tech fence along a stretch of border in Arizona. “They erect this fence,” he said, “only to go out there a few days later and discover that these guys have a catapult, and they’re flinging hundred-pound bales of marijuana over to the other side.” He paused and looked at me for a second. “A catapult,” he repeated. “We’ve got the best fence money can buy, and they counter us with a 2,500-year-old technology.”

— Cocaine Incorporated
posted by kirkaracha at 7:01 PM on December 31, 2018 [45 favorites]

Trump admits his border wall could be defeated by medieval siege technology

“One of the things with the wall is you need transparency. You have to be able to see through it,” Trump said. He continued:
In other words, if you can't see through that wall -- so it could be a steel wall with openings, but you have to have openings because you have to see what's on the other side of the wall.

And I'll give you an example. As horrible as it sounds, when they throw the large sacks of drugs over, and if you have people on the other side of the wall, you don't see them -- they hit you on the head with 60 pounds of stuff? It's over. As crazy as that sounds, you need transparency through that wall.

posted by kirkaracha at 7:11 PM on December 31, 2018 [4 favorites]

All this walls and wheels never getting better and always being the same is just Eternity Politics extruded through a brain literally struggling with object permanence.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:13 PM on December 31, 2018 [19 favorites]

“One of the things with the wall is you need transparency. You have to be able to see through it,” Trump said. He continued:

Wait, why does he care what's on the other side? Drugs aren't going to fall on anybody unless there are people right next to the wall, and if it, you know, works, it won't have to be constantly patrolled either.
posted by rhizome at 8:05 PM on December 31, 2018

David Hogg's response to Laura Ingraham's radio show being canceled
posted by growabrain at 9:05 PM on December 31, 2018 [49 favorites]

Canceling Christmas at his rich people club was out of character as is skipping New Year’s Eve. I seriously wonder if he’s incapacitated.

I think he's decompensating. The worst thing in the world for him is to be ignored, and he has been ignored and left to stew with the toadiest of toadies while everybody goes out and celebrates as if he wasn't there. His hair needs a re-dip, his prescriptions need renewing, his supply of attention is dwindling. That makes him dangerous.
posted by holgate at 9:42 PM on December 31, 2018 [18 favorites]

“One of the things with the wall is you need transparency. You have to be able to see through it,”

It’s almost like the wall doesn’t even need to be there.
posted by iamkimiam at 2:09 AM on January 1, 2019 [15 favorites]

'It's astonishing': The demise of the daily White House press briefing

The press briefing has become a monthly event in the era of Trump, and concerns are that it may soon disappear altogether

The fact that the press briefing has been so devalued under Trump doesn't make this OK; both things are bad and are symptoms of the same corruption that permeates this administration.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:58 AM on January 1, 2019 [17 favorites]

“IN SOME WAYS IT’S A MORE PLEASANT CLUB WHEN TRUMP ISN’T HERE”: MAR-A-LAGO PREPARES FOR NEW YEAR’S EVE WITHOUT ITS STAR ATTRACTION (Vanity Fair)

I was thinking about how sad and lonely Trump must be (not feeling sorry for him, just wondering about the state of mind of the most powerful single person in the world), and came over this piece, where they really stick in the fork and turn it around.

On the last night of 2016, when president-elect Trump walked into the ballroom to greet the 800 guests for his final New Year’s Eve as a civilian, he knew immediately that he was entering a different world. Part of it was that Hollywood and the music industry had turned their back on him. In previous years, guests had included Woody Allen, Serena Williams, Martha Stewart, and Rod Stewart, but that evening few people of note turned up. The celebrity roster began and ended with two men whose glory years were in the previous century, Sylvester Stallone and Fabio. No entertainer of contemporary significance was about to risk his or her career being associated with Trump.

One of the reasons Trump loved Mar-a-Lago was because he felt so comfortable there. He didn’t know the names of most of the members, but he knew their faces, and he felt right around them. That night, however, as he looked out on his golden ballroom, there were hundreds of faces he was seeing for the first time. People had finagled all kinds of ways to be at Mar-a-Lago, including a good number of new members—mainly conservative Republicans—making one of their first appearances at the club.
“I want to thank my members,” Trump said, speaking to the crowd and spotting the faces he knew. “I don’t really care too much about their guests, because the ones I really care about are the members. I don’t give a shit about their guests. I just love my members.”

There was something unsettling about his rude dismissal of about half the people in the ballroom, and his discordant comments were not over. In the back of the room stood a number of reporters. “It was dishonest media,” he told the crowd that cheered his every sentence. “In fact, a lot of them are back there…the dishonest media. The dishonest media, right? Are they dishonest? They are the world’s most dishonest people…They are really garbage.”

He once said that he had imagine he would be popular as president, and how disappointed he was/is that this never materialized. (Can't find the quote). The presidency was supposed to be when he finally arrived, finally was respected and lauded as the very stable genius he imagines himself to be. And now he is isolated in the White House he doesn't like, maybe with a wife who doesn't care -- who knows where she is? -- Certainly with a job that he cannot handle at all, with associates fleeing the sinking ship and publicly shaming him on their way out. What a life.
posted by mumimor at 4:20 AM on January 1, 2019 [50 favorites]

The fact that the press briefing has been so devalued under Trump doesn't make this OK; both things are bad and are symptoms of the same corruption that permeates this administration.

It's very, very, very important that the press find its political feet and start demanding a stake in the system. I know, Trump rode the media to fame, but right now it's also one of the thin threads keeping the republic from collapsing completely into despotism by the stupid. We not only need to bring back the Fairness Doctrine, we need to fund it.

And I can think of an easy lever. If surveillance is ubiquitous, then a public good is surveillance that goes both ways. If we can afford, through our taxes, to pay policemen to watch traffic cameras, we can afford to pay reporters who watch the policemen.

I don't just want a restored press briefing, I want an enfranchised fifth estate. The BBC works. As an American, it's a national disgrace that we don't have anything comparable.
posted by saysthis at 4:33 AM on January 1, 2019 [11 favorites]

Ehhhmmm...”the BBC works”

I wouldn’t bet the house on that!, the #bothsidesism during brexit shows almost identical patterns to what’s happening in the USA.
posted by Wilder at 5:02 AM on January 1, 2019 [14 favorites]

I wouldn’t bet the house on that!, the #bothsidesism during brexit shows almost identical patterns to what’s happening in the USA.

At least politicians talk to them regularly, and NPR and PBS did their share of bothsideism, and memory tells me back in the day the Fairness Doctrine enabled some of the same, but having them rather than Fox be the loudest voice in the room would be nice. Either way, it's better than White House Kremlinology...or maybe I don't know what I'm talking about, in which case I welcome correction. And either way, US media outlets are firing staff and making less money than ever before, they do serve an important function, and I'd like to see them being more aggressive about telling the public why they matter, and some loud clamor about bringing back the WH press briefing, even if it's just to send SHS out to spew lies so we can laugh at her, might be a good place to start.
posted by saysthis at 5:17 AM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

Dean Phillips, the guy who beat out Erik Paulsen in the MN Congressional race with Bigfoot videos, and Ian Todd, who was Tom Emmer’s opponent in the same race, both had a lot of local success by holding town halls as a pointed reminder that Paulsen and Emmer refused to face their constituents.

Democrats should create a position to hold press briefings and take control of the news cycle.
posted by Autumnheart at 6:16 AM on January 1, 2019 [52 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump's inaugurated 2019 with an all-caps tweet wishing happy New Year to everyone, "INCLUDING THE HATERS AND THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA" and promising "GREAT THINGS ARE HAPPENING FOR OUR COUNTRY" for "FOR THOSE NOT SUFFERING" from "TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME". "JUST CALM DOWN AND ENJOY THE RIDE", he says.

The Trump or Not Bot computes only a 21% chance it was written by Trump himself. Compared to last night's multi-tweet tirade, which scored as much as 100%, this attempted trolling signals desperation from not only Trump but also his whole comms team. (This is what happens when Melania isn't around to perform the emotional labor of soothing his ego.)

Juxtaposed with Trump's tweet, Kim Jong Un almost comes off as a reasonable national leader in his New Year's message, in which he calls for an end to US-South Korea military drills and warns America, "If the US does not keep its promise made in front of the whole world, we may be left with no choice but to consider a new way to safeguard our sovereignty and interests." (Deutsche Welle)

Also, in some of the last Trump Administration news of 2018, NBC reports: Top Pentagon Spokeswoman Resigns On New Year's Eve Amid Internal Probe—Dana White was being investigated by the Defense Department's inspector general for misconduct and abuse of power before her abrupt departure.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:26 AM on January 1, 2019 [13 favorites]

At least politicians talk to them regularly, and NPR and PBS did their share of bothsideism, and memory tells me back in the day the Fairness Doctrine enabled some of the same, but having them rather than Fox be the loudest voice in the room would be nice. Either way, it's better than White House Kremlinology...or maybe I don't know what I'm talking about, in which case I welcome correction.

I lived in the UK from 2005 to 2012 and I would say the BBC is excellent and contributes to a more informed and intellectually open and curious population but its news coverage is pretty much equivalent to NPR in its attempts at non-partisan balance, avoiding accusations of bias and in some respects it national politics coverage was shallower reality TV fare and more insider capital focused than the U.S.

They are also suffering from increased concentration and lack of regional coverage in a very similar pattern to US media.

The area where the UK media really stands out from US media is the culture of aggressive informed interviewing and politicians actually being forced to answer uncomfortable questions rather than being allowed deflect to vapid talking points (clearly that was insufficient during the Brexit debate) but that is across both the state and privately owned media outlets and is also reflected in parliamentary debates as well. To me this reflects the British cultural preference for spontaneous wit and on the fly intelligence versus America's preference for more packaged and prepared presentation.
posted by srboisvert at 6:42 AM on January 1, 2019 [21 favorites]

I'd agree that the BBC's news coverage has suffered badly in recent years -- Owen Bennett-Jones has a good piece in the LRB about how aggressive interviewing can be a veneer over substandard journalism -- but structurally, the big difference is that politicians with actual power typically feel obliged to show up for (live) BBC interviews because the Today programmed defines the day's agenda, whereas cablenews is the preferred outlet for politicians in the US and the standard NPR format is for a correspondent to paraphrase what other people said in other places.

The larger issue in the US right now is that there is no agenda. There are moods. It's as if the Weather Channel existed without meteorology and its coverage was based upon calling people and asking what it looks like outside.
posted by holgate at 7:03 AM on January 1, 2019 [39 favorites]

The area where the UK media really stands out from US media is the culture of aggressive informed interviewing and politicians actually being forced to answer uncomfortable questions rather than being allowed deflect to vapid talking points (clearly that was insufficient during the Brexit debate) but that is across both the state and privately owned media outlets and is also reflected in parliamentary debates as well. To me this reflects the British cultural preference for spontaneous wit and on the fly intelligence versus America's preference for more packaged and prepared presentation.

One more then I'm off my horse on this subject. Yes, I generally agree Americans like things a bit more packaged, but I think in this case, we have pretty ample evidence that more press contact is a winning strategy, such as
Dean Phillips, the guy who beat out Erik Paulsen in the MN Congressional race with Bigfoot videos, and Ian Todd, who was Tom Emmer’s opponent in the same race, both had a lot of local success by holding town halls as a pointed reminder that Paulsen and Emmer refused to face their constituents.
Trump and his team are cowards. They're afraid of being laughed at. A few SNL skits basically scared them away from talking to the press at all. They are terrified of being made to look weak, which they are. Which is why Paulsen and Emmer didn't face their constituents. Which is why they cower behind a smokescreen of lies about a liberal media, and which is why Phillips and Todd won in part by showing up and simply pointing out that the other guy wouldn't do the same.

Democrats should create a position to hold press briefings and take control of the news cycle.

All they'd have to do is not lie on the daily. They could even eject Fox/Breitbart reporters for unruly badgering questions, or just point out their absence, or... It would be so gosh-darn simple. Set a standard, demand the standard be met, remind people you matter, angle for government funding and prove your worth to get it, "fund us with taxes or this level of intense coverage goes away forever, btw don't you want politicians who can take the heat?". I hope someone in the press takes up the cause this year.
posted by saysthis at 7:15 AM on January 1, 2019 [13 favorites]

but you have to have openings because you have to see what's on the other side of the wall.

Not being able to see through a wall was solved, probably also 2500 years ago, by creating a wallwalk for the defenders so that they could see over it while having a better view of the surroundings as well. In addition this allowed for throwing items such as hot oil and faeces down on those trying to scale it (generally frowned upon in polite society, but, well, Republicans).
posted by Stoneshop at 7:19 AM on January 1, 2019 [19 favorites]

which is why Phillips and Todd won in part by showing up and simply pointing out that the other guy wouldn't do the same.

While definitely a winning strategy for Phillips, Ian Todd lost handily to Tom Emmer.
posted by mcstayinskool at 7:20 AM on January 1, 2019 [2 favorites]

The United States and Israel officially left UNESCO at the stroke of midnight, a blow to the U.N.'s educational, scientific and cultural agency that was co-founded by the U.S. after World War II to foster peace.
posted by adamvasco at 7:23 AM on January 1, 2019 [67 favorites]

Bush appointee and NeverTrumper Alan J. Steinberg in the New Jersey Star-Ledger: Trump won’t be impeached, but he will leave the presidency in 2019

The self-professed supreme dealmaker will use his presidency as a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities in 2019, agreeing to leave office in exchange for the relevant authorities not pursuing criminal charges against him, his children or the Trump Organization.

Then again, he also predicted a Hillary Clinton presidency, so ¯\_(ಠ_ಠ)_/¯
posted by box at 7:47 AM on January 1, 2019 [4 favorites]

Washington lobbyist W. Samuel Patten, who has been one of the most low-profile but potentially significant cooperators in the special counsel's investigation, appears to still be involved with Mueller's work.
posted by growabrain at 8:03 AM on January 1, 2019 [2 favorites]

A few comments deleted; meh, let's not go thru "will Trump leave voluntarily or...." predictions again, until there's some actual new info to work with.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:39 AM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

WaPo, Paul Farhi, Beyond ‘no comment’: The White House has no response — at all — to many media questions

Reporters are used to officials who respond to their inquiries with a terse “no comment.” This was typically the practice in prior presidential administrations when officials saw no strategic value in rebutting an unflattering story.

But as in so many things, the Trump administration is different. Instead of “no comment,” Trump’s press representatives often don’t bother saying anything at all.

“This is the least responsive White House press operation I’ve ever dealt with by far,” said Peter Baker, a veteran White House reporter for the New York Times and one of the co-authors of the story about Trump’s isolation. “There are certainly individuals there who are professional and try to be helpful when they can, and I appreciate their efforts, I really do. But as a whole, I’ve learned not to expect answers even to basic questions.”
...
As for working under Trump: The press staff “doesn’t have a natural message to drive every day,” as other presidents tried to do, the reporter said. “He [Trump] makes it up every few seconds, so they’re afraid to do anything. . . . It’s not a place where being a freewheeling thinker is valued and rewarded. It’s all about the whims of one man.”
...
What does the White House think of this? It’s hard to know.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment about its tendency not to respond to requests for comment.

posted by zachlipton at 8:46 AM on January 1, 2019 [46 favorites]

The White House did not respond to a request for comment about its tendency not to respond to requests for comment.

...from the Uncanny Grasp of the Obvious Department.
posted by oneswellfoop at 8:56 AM on January 1, 2019 [9 favorites]

The DC media's warm-up for 2019 is speculation about shutdown politics, 2020 candidates and the relationship between the House Dem newcomers and leadership, but if the House hits the ground running, especially with investigations, it will provide more of an agenda to follow. Political journalists openly pine for the days of Watergate. Feed that hunger.
posted by holgate at 9:02 AM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

holgate: Political journalists openly pine for the days of Watergate.

[They should] Be the Watergate you want to see in the world.
posted by Too-Ticky at 9:14 AM on January 1, 2019 [29 favorites]

Regardless of how or when Trump leaves office: former presidents get Secret Service protection for life. So what happens if a former president goes to jail? Does the Secret Service go, too? Are they allowed to carry weapons inside?

The Former Presidents Act covers benefits to presidents after they leave the Oval Office. It says that presidents who've been "removed from office" do not qualify. When Nixon left office to avoid impeachment, DoJ ruled he was not removed for FPA purposes. Same for Bill Clinton when he was impeached but only censored & served out his full term.

So if Trump quits, he gets all the benefits. If he's impeached & convicted (or ousted via the 25th Amendment), he doesn't. What happens if he's prosecuted & convicted after leaving office is anyone's guess.
posted by scalefree at 9:36 AM on January 1, 2019 [6 favorites]

Why would any President not resign effective 5 minutes before a vote which looks likely to result in conviction in order to retain benefits? Seems like a no brainer.
posted by Justinian at 9:40 AM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

Bush appointee and NeverTrumper Alan J. Steinberg in the New Jersey Star-Ledger: Trump won’t be impeached, but he will leave the presidency in 2019

Not really a stretch, the list of possibilities include the odds of him stroking out on any given day, which are 50/50.

The self-professed supreme dealmaker will use his presidency as a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities in 2019, agreeing to leave office in exchange for the relevant authorities not pursuing criminal charges against him, his children or the Trump Organization.

One way or another, he's leaving office. I can't see why the authorities (with integrity, please god, meaning Mueller) would see that as a bargaining chip. Their whole deal is 'justice', not influencing directly who is or isn't president.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 9:44 AM on January 1, 2019 [5 favorites]

[From the twitter]
Deactivation of official accounts from Republicans who lost in 2018 is like The Fallen from The Hunger Games
posted by growabrain at 9:46 AM on January 1, 2019 [25 favorites]

Abrupt removal of Pentagon Spokesperson Dana White as mentioned above by Dr. Z:

Former and current staffers told NBC News in August that White had been accused of having staffers buy her pantyhose and other personal items at the CVS in the Pentagon, pick her up at home and drive her to the Pentagon during storms, fetch her dry cleaning and meals throughout the day, book her grooming appointments and help her plan personal trips. She even had them make phone calls to a foster care facility about adopting a child, the sources said.

Ah. A Pruitt Republican then.

White, a former publicist for Fox News who speaks Mandarin Chinese and French, was a foreign policy adviser for the John McCain/Sarah Palin GOP presidential campaign in 2008, her DoD biography says. She's also a former professional staff member on the senate's Armed Services Committee, and former director of policy and strategic communications for the Renault-Nissan Alliance.

Eh, we'll call it a bogey.
posted by petebest at 9:53 AM on January 1, 2019 [9 favorites]

Karma is such a, well, you know: NYS Senate Dems say thanks, but no thanks to Simcha Felder's return to Democratic conference. Felder was the Democratic state senator who caucused with the Republicans in New York, back when they controlled things in the Senate, something that ends today.
posted by adamg at 9:59 AM on January 1, 2019 [55 favorites]

She even had them make phone calls to a foster care facility about adopting a child, the sources said.

These are people who consider obtaining a human child to be just another errand for their underlings.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:36 AM on January 1, 2019 [27 favorites]

These are people who consider obtaining a human child to be just another errand for their underlings.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:36 AM on January 2 [1 favorite +] [!]

These are people who either, generously, don't understand apps and email, but in 2019 that's not so likely, so actually, less generously, they probably have ridiculous 19th-century beliefs about assistants and servants, which in 2019 is likely but only among people who believe dominating others gives their lives value.

If you adopt, buy pantyhose, inspect your dry cleaning, or buy meals in 2019, it's far faster to just talk to the professionals yourself than to attempt to get a non-professional to understand your needs and then do the legwork. Ask me how I know (don't actually, I know because I had an assistant or two who offered to help when I was working 18 hour days for 3 weeks at a stretch but...it just...I had delivery services and no kids, and the assistants were sweet and wonderful but also interns, and servant stuff is just not their job, ew...like...if you are so time-poor that you need an assistant, anything that goes beyond picking up your Amazon boxes and takeout from the front desk and coordinating with your childcare specialist and/or travel agent is a pointless, wasteful bourgeoisie indulgence that doesn't belong in government or management, because it's fxxkin 2019 and we have apps for that stuff).

While definitely a winning strategy for Phillips, Ian Todd lost handily to Tom Emmer.

True about Todd, sorry for the misleading phrasing...but Todd did succeed in winning about 4% more of the D vote than in 2016 (and only 1,000 less D votes than in 2016) against Emmer, with a budget of $69,923 vs. Emmer's $2,066,200. True, he didn't win the election in the district that elected Michelle Bachmann, but he did win a little considering the odds. Source.
posted by saysthis at 11:17 AM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

Yeah. The 6th district is extremely gerrymandered to be almost undefeatable for Republicans. The fact that Todd had as much momentum as he did was pretty significant.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:21 AM on January 1, 2019 [2 favorites]

CNN: Trump attacks McChrystal after retired general called Trump immoral

"'General' McChrystal got fired like a dog by Obama," Trump tweeted Tuesday morning. "Last assignment a total bust. Known for big, dumb mouth. Hillary lover!"

He can't even insult like an adult.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:29 AM on January 1, 2019 [15 favorites]

The fact that Todd had as much momentum as he did was pretty significant.

Light hagiography for context, since the 6th is my ancestral district, it really is significant. Todd is someone to watch. He's 28, a dedicated progressive, new to politics, and exactly the kind of candidate who is entering politics to counter Trump. I hope he stays in the game, 'cause we need more like him.
posted by saysthis at 11:42 AM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

PSA: The President of the United States uses the word 'dog' when he wants to say the word 'bitch' but has been told that he should not say 'bitch' in public. He probably thinks it's a clever substitution in a middle school sort of way. Whenever Trump says 'like a dog', substitute 'like a bitch'.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 11:42 AM on January 1, 2019 [15 favorites]

I'm pretty sure the idiom "like a dog" existed before Trump.

(not that it's worth a huge derail to argue about it though)
posted by ryanrs at 11:47 AM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

"like a dog" is a phrase whose idiomatic use predates Trump, yes. But typically people attach it to plausibly doglike things. See also Donald Trump Clearly Doesn't Understand How Dogs Work (HuffPost, nearly three years ago).
posted by jackbishop at 11:59 AM on January 1, 2019 [9 favorites]

Politico: Trump invites congressional leaders to White House for wall briefing—The meeting would be the first time the president has sat down with Democrats since the shutdown started.

President Donald Trump has invited congressional leaders to a Wednesday afternoon briefing on the border wall at the White House, according to three congressional sources familiar with the invitation.

White House officials on New Year’s Eve asked House and Senate leaders in both parties to attend the meeting. The session, which will include a briefing by top Homeland Security Department officials, comes as a partial government shutdown over Trump’s border wall reaches its eleventh day.

Maybe this is what was behind Trump’s tweet earlier about how Pelosi shouldn’t start her Speakership with “Border Security and the Wall “thing” and Shutdown”. He then pleaded, “Let’s make a deal?”
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:06 PM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

The bargaining stage of grief for Wall.

There's no reason for the Dem leadership to offer anything else. Pass the House funding bills on Thursday, hang out McConnell to dry until he puts them on the Senate floor for a vote.
posted by holgate at 12:23 PM on January 1, 2019 [29 favorites]

President Donald Trump has invited congressional leaders to a Wednesday afternoon briefing on the border wall at the White House...

Anyone have any faith it's going to actually end up being a security meeting, and not Trump going off-script (again) for a rematch against Pelosi?
posted by Thorzdad at 12:23 PM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

Whenever Trump says 'like a dog', substitute 'like a bitch'.

There's documented evidence that in private he says "like a bitch."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:52 PM on January 1, 2019 [6 favorites]

No one seriously believes that a meeting with Donald Trump is going to resolve Jack squat.

The proposed meeting on Wednesday isn’t to resolve anything. It’s so Trump and McConnell can get out ahead of the Democrats, so that when the House Dems pass their CR on Thursday, Trump and the GOP can say “We clearly told Pelosi yesterday that the Dem CR wasn’t going to make it through the Senate and get the President to sign, but they did it anyway. See how they’re not even trying to negotiate? They don’t want to resolve this shutdown!”

In contrast, if the Dems pass their CR before they go to the meeting, the narrative becomes “There’s a perfectly good bill - that has in it everything the GOP and Trump once agreed to - sitting there ready for the Senate to pass and Trump to sign. They won’t do it. Clearly, they’re the ones extending the shutdown.”
posted by darkstar at 1:15 PM on January 1, 2019 [27 favorites]

'Wow': NASA startles with invitation to sanctioned Russian (Politico)

A Trump administration official’s plan to host a sanctioned Russian nationalist in the U.S. in the coming months is raising alarms among Russia hawks in Washington.

NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine extended an October invitation for his counterpart, Dmitry Rogozin, to visit NASA headquarters in Houston in early 2019. U.S.-Russia space cooperation is nothing new. But Rogozin is no typical rocket-science technocrat. He is an ultranationalist politician with a record of stark racism and homophobia who is under American sanctions, which typically bar him from entering the U.S. over his 2014 role, as deputy prime minister, in Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 1:58 PM on January 1, 2019 [35 favorites]

One way or another, he's leaving office. I can't see why the authorities (with integrity, please god, meaning Mueller) would see that as a bargaining chip. Their whole deal is 'justice', not influencing directly who is or isn't president.

Trump's chip is the subversion of much of the Republican party by the Russia collusion. He could negotiate with Mueller to spill beans on a lot of them in exchange for clemency if he isn't promised a pardon.

Also there are no unified "authorities" who could make or take this kind of offer across federal and state jurisdictions.
posted by srboisvert at 2:06 PM on January 1, 2019 [2 favorites]

It’s so Trump and McConnell can get out ahead of the Democrats, so that when the House Dems pass their CR on Thursday, Trump and the GOP can say “We clearly told Pelosi yesterday that the Dem CR wasn’t going to make it through the Senate

Except it isn't going to be a "Dem CR". It'll be—quite possibly word-for-word—the same continuing resolution that received bipartisan Senate support less than a month ago. I honestly don't see any rhetorical sleight of hand McConnell could use to disown something he himself put forward.
posted by jackbishop at 2:09 PM on January 1, 2019 [14 favorites]

He could negotiate with Mueller to spill beans on a lot of them

Except he's not a credible witness.
posted by petebest at 2:10 PM on January 1, 2019 [16 favorites]

Also he has never admitted doing anything wrong in his entire life... so he will not testify against anyone where he admits anything wrong happened. I can't think of him ever admitting he was wrong this entire decade long presidency.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 2:17 PM on January 1, 2019 [6 favorites]

INCREASED PRIVATIZATION OF THE VA HAS LED TO LONGER WAITS AND HIGHER COSTS FOR TAXPAYERS

An analysis of VA claims data shows that sending more vets to private care has not had the positive effects that were long promised by conservatives.

EeewhaaaaaAAA??!

The winners have been two private companies hired to run the program, which began under the Obama administration and is poised to grow significantly under Trump. ProPublica and PolitiFact obtained VA data showing how much the agency has paid in medical claims and administrative fees for the Choice Program.

Since 2014, the two companies have been paid nearly $2 billion for overhead, including profit. That's about 24 percent of the companies' total program expenses—a rate that would exceed the federal cap that governs how much most insurance plans can spend on administration in the private sector.

MAGA: Hosing Veterans Is Our Jam.
posted by petebest at 2:26 PM on January 1, 2019 [37 favorites]

Seth Meyers summed a lot of WH idiocy up before Christmas, I haven't seen it linked here, but its worth the 8 or so minutes of your time. It's like during the Bush years, the mainstream media are dry in their mouths and unwilling to be concise, so the comedians have to do their jobs. We really don't have to think so much about White House plans or ideas, or wether Trump is plain stupid or demented, goddammit. It's a shitshow.

(OK, I'll go pour myself a drink and then go to bed...)
posted by mumimor at 2:32 PM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

I'm pretty sure the idiom "like a dog" existed before Trump.

The context gives it away. I just called in my dog, and told her she wasn't meeting expectations, and I'd have to let her go. She wagged her tail, and nuzzled me for a scratch behind the ears.

Trump means 'bitch'. But even "fired like a bitch" doesn't make sense.

Lessons Learned: Do not expect rational behavior from irrational people.
posted by mikelieman at 2:59 PM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

The only use of “like a dog” I’m familiar with is to “put down like a dog.” Like, take it out behind the barn and shoot it. Of course, if you wish to believe I-1 can think in anything other than one dimension, one could suppose he knows he can’t actually say “put down” in reference to an assumed political enemy, so he says “something else like a dog.”

He sounds stupid to everyone other than his base. They get what he really means.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:12 PM on January 1, 2019 [1 favorite]

The only use of “like a dog” I’m familiar with is to “put down like a dog.” Like, take it out behind the barn and shoot it.

That's as may be, but other meanings for "....like a dog" do exist. They're all belittling, though, so in general Trump is, as ever, being a smarmy assnugget by saying it.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:17 PM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

"Like a dog" is the last thing Josef K. says in The Trial. I imagine Trump is making a recondite allusion to the novel's last words, the bit about "as if the shame of it would outlive him."

Or possibly he thinks it's a clever way to say "bitch" without saying it. Hard to weigh up the probabilities.
posted by Mocata at 3:22 PM on January 1, 2019 [44 favorites]

Quoting Kafka or just calling generals bitches? Yep, real coin-toss there.
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 3:25 PM on January 1, 2019 [15 favorites]

I'm picturing that "like a boss" song from the lonley island boys, but instead it's the Trump version and you change it to "like a dog"

Talk to corporate (like a dog)
Approve memos (like a dog)
Lead a workshop (like a dog)
Remember birthdays (like a dog)
posted by some loser at 3:33 PM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

Do the dog (do the dog)
Do the dog (not the donkey)
Do the dog (don't be a jerk)
Do the dog (watch who you work for)
Do the-do the-do the-do the dog
Everybody's doing the dog
posted by parki at 3:34 PM on January 1, 2019 [17 favorites]

I honestly don't see any rhetorical sleight of hand McConnell could use to disown something he himself put forward.

The “rhetorical sleight of hand” he’d use would be ignoring any attempts to question him about it, or just lying. Just ask Merrick Garland about how beholden Mitch McConnell is to truth or precedent or consistency.
posted by Etrigan at 3:37 PM on January 1, 2019 [40 favorites]

I honestly don't see any rhetorical sleight of hand McConnell could use to disown something he himself put forward.

somethingsomethingNeeds have changedsomethingsomethingNo longer feasiblesomethingsomethingBest for the countrysomethingsomething
posted by Thorzdad at 3:45 PM on January 1, 2019 [9 favorites]

parki i just snorted my beverage out my nose

(not) like a dog
posted by mwhybark at 3:51 PM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

psst let's maybe let the dog rest now
posted by cortex (staff) at 4:03 PM on January 1, 2019 [28 favorites]

[psst let's maybe let the dog rest now]
posted by cortex (staff) at 7:03 PM on 1/1

Yes, do let's let sleeping dogs lie.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 4:06 PM on January 1, 2019 [21 favorites]

[psst let's maybe let the dog rest now]

Like a dog!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:06 PM on January 1, 2019 [9 favorites]

not a donkey
posted by mwhybark at 4:12 PM on January 1, 2019 [5 favorites]

(sorry not sorry sorry)
posted by mwhybark at 4:13 PM on January 1, 2019 [5 favorites]

(sorry not sorry sorry)
posted by mwhybark at 9:13 AM on January 2

Edoggysterical
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:04 PM on January 1, 2019 [9 favorites]

Oh man we're all barking up the wrong tree now
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 5:06 PM on January 1, 2019 [6 favorites]

DON'T MAKE ME SOMETHING SOMETHING
posted by cortex (staff) at 5:08 PM on January 1, 2019 [72 favorites]

cortex tried and tried, but it seems like that dog...
(•_•)
( •_•)>⌐■-■
(⌐■_■)
...won't hunt
posted by halation at 5:15 PM on January 1, 2019 [45 favorites]

CNN: Axelrod: Why Warren will be such a major player in 2020

As Sanders proved on 2016, there is an audience for the hard-edged populism Warren loudly proclaimed in her announcement video. Many Americans are fed up with the hegemony of Wall Street and the stranglehold of lobbyists, a trend made worse by Trump, despite his iconic campaign pledge to "drain the swamp."

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:37 PM on January 1, 2019 [10 favorites]

State Of THe World 2019 is up at The Inkwell.
posted by ocschwar at 5:38 PM on January 1, 2019 [1 favorite]

I don't trust Axelrod. I don't know why, I just don't.
posted by rhizome at 6:16 PM on January 1, 2019 [8 favorites]

NYT, Shutdown Leaves Food, Medicine and Pay in Doubt in Indian Country, in which the shutdown definition of “essential” naturally doesn’t include not trapping Indian communities in their homes:

“The federal government owes us this: We prepaid with millions of acres of land,” said Mr. Payment, who also criticized the shutdown on Monday from the stage at his tribe’s New Year’s powwow. “We don’t have the right to take back that land, so we expect the federal government to fulfill its treaty and trust responsibility.”

On the Navajo Nation, a mostly rural reservation of red rock canyon that spans parts of New Mexico, Arizona and Utah, the government shutdown has already been difficult, said Russell Begaye, the Navajo Nation’s president.

A blanket of snow has covered the region, but roads are unplowed because federal maintenance has stopped. Many people are now trapped in their homes, unable to make the 20- or 50-mile journey to buy water, groceries and medicine, said Mr. Begaye.

posted by zachlipton at 6:18 PM on January 1, 2019 [41 favorites]

I don't trust Axelrod. I don't know why, I just don't.

Anybody who works with Karl Rove is immediately suspect.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:45 PM on January 1, 2019 [12 favorites]

@RobbyMook:

Last 24 hours shows Trump’s 2020 path to victory:

-Dem candidate releases video that explains her background, values, vision and policies-it never mentions Trump;
-Trump responds with childish insult;
-Media only covers insult.

All process, all on Trump’s terms. No Dem message.

We complain we don’t know what Democrats stand for, but when someone tries to articulate it, the media lets Trump smother it with name calling.

posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:49 PM on January 1, 2019 [125 favorites]

AP: US fires tear gas across Mexico border to stop migrants.

TIJUANA, Mexico (AP) — U.S. authorities fired tear gas into Mexico during the first hours of the new year to repel about 150 migrants who tried to breach the border fence in Tijuana.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in a statement later Tuesday that the gas was used to target rock throwers apart from the migrants who were trying to cross.[…]

An Associated Press photographer saw at least three volleys of gas launched onto the Mexican side of the border near Tijuana’s beach that affected the migrants, including women and children, as well as journalists. The AP saw rocks thrown only after U.S. agents fired the tear gas.

Happy New Year from CBP.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:00 PM on January 1, 2019 [5 favorites]

Dem candidate releases video that explains her background, values, vision and policies-it never mentions Trump

One quibble. That Warren video didn't actually cover any specific concrete policies though, did it? It covered her background, the problems as she sees them, and implies some things that can be done about it, but there's no specific policy proposals there or on her website when I looked.
posted by runcibleshaw at 7:06 PM on January 1, 2019 [5 favorites]

@RobbyMook:
Last 24 hours shows Trump’s 2020 path to victory:

Looks like Mook is advertising himself in hopes of finding another campaign he can screw up.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 7:16 PM on January 1, 2019 [7 favorites]

Mook is, I think, still making the mistake of insisting we live in a world where policy would win the day if only the media would cooperate rather than himself adapting to this one where policy only barely matters on the margins. People don't vote on policy except in the very broadest of strokes.

Sanders challenged Clinton from the left, but support for him was not particularly correlated with being very leftish. De Leon challenged Feinstein from the left but his strongest base in the general was Republicans. Obama didn't win twice because of his policies; consider how many people thought he was far more progressive than he was despite him being pretty clear on his positions. Clinton's policies were far more popular among the electorate than Trump's but a lot of people voted for him anyway because they didn't like her on non policy grounds. Reagan is fondly remembered by a lot of people who couldn't tell you jack shit about his awful policies. GWB is being rehabilitated despite having, in some cases, far worse policies than Trump which resulted in a million dead innocents.

And so on and so on.

Policy papers on a website should happen because they are important for governance. But they won't win the election and it is a fundamental mistake among policy wonks to believe they will.

Now if you can get a single policy that resonates with the populace to become the focus of the campaign and hammer it (health care! health care! health care!) you can drive a wedge and win, but that's still a messaging/tone thing rather than a pure policy issue.
posted by Justinian at 7:21 PM on January 1, 2019 [47 favorites]

Politico asks:
How does Elizabeth Warren avoid a Clinton redux — written off as too unlikable before her campaign gets off the ground?
posted by growabrain at 7:23 PM on January 1, 2019 [3 favorites]

I think that’s a fair quibble. But Mook’s larger point is valid, I think. Warren’s video (I just watched it) was a powerful statement of her values. In response, Trump insults her. The media focuses almost exclusively on Trump’s insulting response.

Regardless, I have to say: Warden’s video is a powerful statement (or series of statements). It is unabashedly in support of everything the race should be about. It proudly wears its support of key constituencies, and echoes what I believe is the fundamental worldview of the majority of Americans. As an initial announcement, it rings every bell on the board.

I’ve been reluctant to wade into the 2020 race so early. Mainly because I’m still emotionally exhausted from the 2016 and 2018 races. But I’d welcome hearing more from Warren like this, just because, regardless of the upcoming race, hers is a message that needs to saturate the public consciousness. Let it be told, again and again.
posted by darkstar at 7:23 PM on January 1, 2019 [22 favorites]

The shutdown also curtailed a Department of Agriculture food program that helped feed about 90,000 Native American people in fiscal year 2017. Chairman Joseph Rupnick of the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation, headquartered in northeast Kansas, said he feared the impact that this would have on his members.

Note that the Prairie Band have donated over $10 million to charities over the past 20 years.

And that the US Government has made and broken at least 50 treaties with the Potawatomi.

I don't know why any Native thinks they can trust the feds. But we kind of don't have any other option.

We never did.
posted by elsietheeel at 7:38 PM on January 1, 2019 [28 favorites]

How does Elizabeth Warren avoid a Clinton redux — written off as too unlikable before her campaign gets off the ground?

The tweet I was going to quote here has been deleted, but to paraphrase without attribution: how come the same press that has refused to call Trump a liar, something supported by substantial evidence every day, in all this time feels so free to call women "unlikable?"

----

A little House rules update:

@ddayen:

FWIW there are several good things in the rules package.

This reinstates the "Gephardt rule" that defuses the debt ceiling time bomb in the House, eliminating the need for a separate vote.

This kills the requirement that the CBO use "dynamic scoring" to effectively fake the budget impact of tax cuts in particular

EdLabor is back.

The rule bans members of Congress from sitting on corporate boards, which amazingly wasn't already in place (Chris Collins was on a corp board, that was how he committed insider trading)

This allows House Dems to intervene in the ACA lawsuit.

Members will have to pay for their own sexual harassment settlements.

posted by zachlipton at 7:40 PM on January 1, 2019 [57 favorites]

Oh, and the counterpoint to that rules update, PAYGO remains in the House rules, though with an option to declare an emergency exception. Which isn't great, but also doesn't really matter much until 2021 at the earliest given the Senate and White House, and the livability of the Earth's climate really ought to be considered an emergency one way or another.
posted by zachlipton at 7:52 PM on January 1, 2019 [1 favorite]

Members will have to pay for their own sexual harassment settlements.

...which amazingly wasn't already in place, either.
posted by elsietheeel at 7:53 PM on January 1, 2019 [10 favorites]

Whatever you do, do not share this photo of Wayne LaPierre with Russian spy Maria Butina. Apparently, Wayne wants it removed from the internet.

2 weeks ago: Rick Santorum has hired a firm to scrub the internet of a picture of him Butina.
posted by growabrain at 8:03 PM on January 1, 2019 [15 favorites]

That LaPierre link is dead, and as I pointed out with the Santorum tweet, there's no sourcing on that claim. It's just some rando twitter person taking a shot at Santorum. That's fine and all but people have been sharing it as if claim in the tweet (he hired someone) is true. It's basically a twitter chain email.
posted by runcibleshaw at 8:08 PM on January 1, 2019 [11 favorites]

NC-09: Outgoing rep Pittenger says he won't be running in any do-over election. That's a surprise gift for Dems; he's the obvious non-Harris candidate for the GOP.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 PM on January 1, 2019 [15 favorites]

I’ve been reluctant to wade into the 2020 race so early. Mainly because I’m still emotionally exhausted from the 2016 and 2018 races. But I’d welcome hearing more from Warren like this, just because, regardless of the upcoming race, hers is a message that needs to saturate the public consciousness. Let it be told, again and again.

This thread pretty well sums up how I'll be judging the emerging 2020 field.

Anand Giridharadas:

With the 2020 race now launching, here is a simple framework to evaluate Democrats. Is the candidate a MarketWorld “win-win” Democrat or a power-busting reformer?

With her strong, finger-pointing video today, @ewarren has firmly anchored herself in the Not MarketWorld camp.
Market-World is an ascendant power elite that is defined by the concurrent drives to do well and do good, to change the world while benefiting from the status quo. It consists of enlightened businesspeople and their collaborators in the worlds of charity, academia, media, government, and think tanks. It has its own thinkers, whom it calls thought leaders, its own language, and even has its own territory - including a constantly shifting archipelago of conferences at which its values are reinforced and disseminated and transferred into action. MarketWorld is a network and a community, but it is also a culture and state of mind.

These elites believe and promote the idea that social change should be pursued principally through the free market and voluntary action, not public life and the law and the reform of systems that people share in common; that it should be supervised by the winners of capitalism and their allies, and not be antagonistic to their needs; and that the biggest beneficiaries of the status quo should play a leading role in the status quo's reform.
You will notice two distinct languages emerge. One of win-win, one of win-lose.

The win-winners will speak of all rising, coming together, prospering in unity, something-something. The win-losers will use words like monopoly, rigged, greed, exploited, robber barons. Pay heed. The win-winners will go after the easy targets of villains on the right, starting with the president. The win-losers will tell us the bitter truth that, when it comes to extreme inequality, the Democratic donor class has its own cruel legacy to answer for. From a distance, win-win sounds good, and win-lose sounds bad. But think again about these orientations in the coming year. Those Democrats telling a win-lose story of American life will be telling an essential and true tale of how we got to this place of inequality and rage. Some problems are like engines, where you tinker and solve them. Other problems -- such as what killed the American dream -- are like crime scenes. A warm, fuzzy desire to come together isn't how you solve them. You solve them by catching and bringing perpetrators to justice.

We need Democrats that are not afraid to talk about using the power of government for the benefit of the public for once, instead of in service of corporate power.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:13 PM on January 1, 2019 [39 favorites]

I see Elizabeth Warren as less of a progressive and more someone who wants to save capitalism from its excesses. She was a devout Republican until she was 45 years old -- right through Ronald Reagan and half the Clinton era -- so I'm not so sure I can trust her instincts. I don't think Democrats need another Obama economic centrist in the White House at this time. Let her do her good deeds in the Senate. But she can certainly bring her voice to the debates as a candidate.
posted by JackFlash at 8:15 PM on January 1, 2019 [12 favorites]

holgate: Political journalists openly pine for the days of Watergate.

Who do they think made Watergate happen?
posted by msalt at 8:20 PM on January 1, 2019 [14 favorites]

Reagan is fondly remembered by a lot of people who couldn't tell you jack shit about his awful policies.

Or his good ones, like realizing tax cuts weren't working and correcting course.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:38 PM on January 1, 2019 [6 favorites]

I don't think Democrats need another Obama economic centrist in the White House at this time.

As measured by DW-Nominate, Elizabeth Warren has been the most liberal Senator in every term she has served.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:40 PM on January 1, 2019 [71 favorites]

WaPo: Jerry Falwell Jr. can’t imagine Trump ‘doing anything that’s not good for the country’

In which we learn that Jesus was actually very pro-Roman.
posted by Joe in Australia at 8:44 PM on January 1, 2019 [28 favorites]

I see Elizabeth Warren as less of a progressive and more someone who wants to save capitalism from its excesses.

Eh, you mean just like the original turn of the (20th) century Progressives were (and more or less what their contemporary counterparts remain)?
posted by notyou at 8:44 PM on January 1, 2019 [7 favorites]

I'm not in love the framing of "win-win" vs. "win-lose". Yes, it's true that we got here in large part by capitalism's winners taking from the losers, but that doesn't mean that progress toward parity has to be done via equal and opposite measures. Sometimes the situation calls for taking back what was wrongfully stolen, but sometimes everyone involved is just leaving money on the table.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:02 PM on January 1, 2019 [7 favorites]

The framing among Leftists, Progressives, Socialists and centrist Dems has already begun. Narratives about the various possible Democratic candidates are already being crafted, among their supporters and among their detractors.

The megathread didn’t exist in the early days of the Presidential primaries, back in 2015 and early 2016. It will be interesting to see how contentious this venue becomes as these debates and discussions take place here.

Regardless, I just want to echo the point that Jpfed illustrated, above. By any actual quantifiable measurement, Warren cannot be considered an economic “centrist”. She may not be as far left as some prefer — she’s not a socialist, fair enough — but she is (as notyou noted) definitely a representative of historic and modern Progressive economic values.

Also, I echo zachlipton’s comment above, about the media’s early framing of Warren as “unlikeable”. Given how demonstrably, toxically odious Trump is on eleven different continua, it is infuriating to see a journalist selectively inject such a sexist description of Warren into the discussion almost immediately after her announcement.
posted by darkstar at 9:12 PM on January 1, 2019 [43 favorites]

I love Connie Schultz.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:16 PM on January 1, 2019 [11 favorites]

it is infuriating to see a journalist instead inject such a sexist description of Warren into the discussion almost immediately after her announcement.

Every corporate media entity will work to destroy the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is, exactly like they did Clinton. They all very much want Trump to be re-elected and will do everything in their power to make it so, exactly like the helped elect him in the first place. We should have no expectation of fair treatment, they’ve already started the process of helping amplify Trumps every attack line against every Democrat that declares. This won’t stop. They want him in power. He makes them a shitload of money.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:20 PM on January 1, 2019 [33 favorites]

Well, that was Michelle Wolf’s most pointed (in my opinion) critique at the 2017 Correspondent’s Dinner roast. The one that didn’t get repeated very much in the media afterward. That Trump, as toxic as he is — as corrupt and incompetent and unstable and immoral and fake as he obviously is — had made a lot of people in that room a lot of money.

Instead, we heard a lot about Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ smokey eye. But not so much about how the media have a vested financial interest in helping Trump win and hold office.
posted by darkstar at 9:28 PM on January 1, 2019 [33 favorites]

So the left-most Senator in the entire country is too "centrist" to be the nominee but is also too far to the left to win in a general election.

I really wanted to drink less in 2019, people. Help me out here.
posted by 0xFCAF at 9:45 PM on January 1, 2019 [96 favorites]

You don't need a weatherman to know that Mitt Romney blows.

It is well known that Donald Trump was not my choice for the Republican presidential nomination. After he became the nominee, I hoped his campaign would refrain from resentment and name-calling. It did not. When he won the election, I hoped he would rise to the occasion. His early appointments of Rex Tillerson, Jeff Sessions, Nikki Haley, Gary Cohn, H.R. McMaster, Kelly and Mattis were encouraging. But, on balance, his conduct over the past two years, particularly his actions this month, is evidence that the president has not risen to the mantle of the office.

"Try the Mittballs. They're delicious!"
posted by kirkaracha at 9:52 PM on January 1, 2019 [19 favorites]

Warren represents the better side of the Boomer Argument: that is, she recognises that in spite of her personal ups and downs she had generational and demographic advantages that weren't available to many of her peers and most of those younger than her. However, if 2020 is another round of the Boomer Argument, Democrats will lose and deserve to lose. I like her politics and she would be a very good chair of the Senate Banking Committee, but given that the Senate is an antidemocratic pile of suck she probably doesn't see that happening any time soon.

I don't really buy the "coverage is for the money" argument. I do buy the argument that DC is wired for Republicans and their power is treated as normative even when the incumbent president is clinically abnormal, and that Democrats have to justify their claim to power while being covered through a set of templates assuming Republican rule. A white supremacist like Steve King or nutjobs like Mo Brooks and Louis Gohmert are treated like part of the furniture. Ryan and Cantor and McCarthy were heralded as a brave new wave; the new intake of Democrats are covered in terms of how much trouble they might cause the leadership.
posted by holgate at 9:59 PM on January 1, 2019 [11 favorites]

Shrill, aggressive, unlikable, ambitious, chilly, strident, stiff, angry, pushy, loud, artificial, single-minded, inauthentic, cerebral, smarmy, aloof -- the list goes on and on. And I hear every single one not from Republicans (with whom I have no truck) but Democrats; and when I ask them whether they are expressing their own views or just worrying about how potential-candidate X will be perceived by others, it's amazing how long they have to think before they can start answering the question...
posted by chortly at 10:09 PM on January 1, 2019 [44 favorites]

So the left-most Senator in the entire country is too "centrist" to be the nominee but is also too far to the left to win in a general election.

Consider the source.
posted by rhizome at 10:23 PM on January 1, 2019 [2 favorites]

She was a devout Republican until she was 45 years old -- right through Ronald Reagan and half the Clinton era -- so I'm not so sure I can trust her instincts.

That was 24 years ago. Approximately 24 years before Barack Obama started his campaign for the 2008 election, he was trying cocaine.

I'm not saying doing cocaine is worse than being a Republican, but really, sins can be forgiven, and people can experience personal growth and change.
posted by 0xFCAF at 10:25 PM on January 1, 2019 [35 favorites]

An analysis of VA claims data shows that sending more vets to private care has not had the positive effects that were long promised by conservatives.

I mean, I know we know this, but it's so damn obvious I don't understand why any Republican can claim this shit will help without being laughed off the airwaves.

Cutting funding to government-provided assistance programs always means spending more money. When I was working mental health at the height of vets getting back from Iraq, the extent to which the VA was underfunded was ridiculous. But there's still an obligation to help those people, so they went to private facilities, often quite nice ones, on the government's dime. (Unfortunately, this doesn't mean they got the help they need. The VA has some really great long-term PTSD treatment programs with good results...if you win the lottery to get into them. A few days inpatient care by people who don't specialize in vet's issues isn't the same.)

It's the same as what happened when the State of Texas went bankrupt under Rick Perry and cut mental health funding. Admissions to outpatient programs stopped, waitlists were implemented, and people suffered. Until they suddenly were in crisis and instead of the state paying a few hundred dollars for them to see a doctor, now they're paying for EMS and police to handle the situation, and the ER, and our crisis services, and then inpatient treatment in a state hospital. Which could all have been prevented with a few visits to our office and a generic prescription.

The conservative mindset is always that closing the doors to care, making it more difficult, outsourcing it, whatever, is going to save money because only the people who really need help will actually get it then. Because they really believe "those people" just line up to get VA treatment or mental health care...for fun, I guess? Because poor people have nothing better to do? I don't know.

But the savings is always imaginary, or a illusion due to keeping the real costs on the ledgers of other public services. Or because dead people don't show up in spreadsheets.
posted by threeturtles at 10:44 PM on January 1, 2019 [63 favorites]

Having once been a Republican is an asset for her in a general election. For one, it shows she understands how moderate Republicans see the world. Also, she's a role model for Republicans who might want to switch because their party no longer represents their values.

The moderate Republicans are Elizabeth Warren by now, or at least ex-Republicans. All the gettable Republicans have been gotten, and the fact that there has been hardly any Republican pushback at any level against the now years-long explicitly racist smear campaign against her should put the idea to bed forever.

"Pocahontas," the war whoops at the rallies, the headdress memes, this specific campaign was used as a demonstrative GOP loyalty oath: you need to go along with this to show that you're with Trump and with the party. And they all did. They have already (loudly or tacitly) pronounced themselves racists against Warren to prove their loyalty to their party. Why should any of them be considered potential Warren defectors?
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:25 PM on January 1, 2019 [18 favorites]

I'm glad Warren is in the running. Her professed platform is well to left of the likes of Booker and O'Rourke, and her presence in the debate will help to push the conversations in the right direction.

Her history as a Republican and her pro-capitalist statements are liabilities, full stop. Fussing over electability does not appear to help us win elections, and even if it did, winning this election is the least of what we need to do in the next two years. Climate change is the issue of the next 100+ years, and we need to build such a groundswell of support for economic and societal transformation that Donald Trump is reduced to an afterthought, a little bit of sticky crud that we pry out of the tread of a boot on our way to the real fight.

France is on the edge of revolution. Reports drop monthly screaming that the world is boiling and getting more and more explicit about the bald, obvious fact that capitalism is not equipped to fix it. We need to stop fucking around about who can woo evangelicals or whatever, and start giving people an option that is credibly working to help them afford housing and save their children from inheriting an uninhabitable hellscape.
posted by contraption at 11:44 PM on January 1, 2019 [18 favorites]

I was a Republican in the 1980s. Then the country shifted hard right under Newt Gingrich and Ken Starr. I was still the same person and was disgusted with the Republicans so I became an Independent. Then the country shifted hard right under Bush and Cheney. I was still the same person and was even more disgusted with the Republicans so I became a Democrat. By 2008 I was so disgusted I campaigned heavily for Obama and joined the local Democratic Committee. Still the same person, more or less. I visited over 4,000 houses for Obama in the primary and general, obsessively completing list after list. The same thing got me going for the Conor Lamb special election too. Though I didn't have the same level of dedication, out of the 687 votes he won by, I'm claiming 1 of them. (Of course I don't know which one.)

The reason I mention all this is because while door-knocking I find that some people will dismiss Democrats' messages out of hand because they have certain negative prejudices towards Democrats generally. They look at you like some kind of ex-hippie. But if I mention that I used to be a Republican and why I'm not now, it gives me greater credibility with them than if they assume I have been a Democrat my entire life. It shows independent thinking and consistent moral values. I'm sure it has convinced at least a few voters to cross party lines.
posted by M-x shell at 11:59 PM on January 1, 2019 [93 favorites]

Climate change is the issue of the next 100+ years, and we need to build such a groundswell of support for economic and societal transformation that Donald Trump is reduced to an afterthought, a little bit of sticky crud that we pry out of the tread of a boot on our way to the real fight.

This!
Elizabeth Warren is an amazing person who has been an inspiration for the last two decades. I like her. I think she'll be a fine president. She is strong, smart and disciplined, almost everything we need right now. But I hope a younger candidate will turn up who is just as amazing, because I feel the age of the boomers must end now. And the main reason I think that is climate change. I don't trust any boomer on climate change - heck, I hardly trust myself, and I'm from -63, at the very end of the boom.
It's not that they don't care. I'm sure they do. It's that they don't get the scale of that challenge, and how much of their leadership leads to go into that challenge. What is needed is at least on the scale of the new deal, and for that, you need more than good values and a tough attitude. (I think, maybe I'll be proven wrong by the next president, I can't vote anyway)
posted by mumimor at 2:11 AM on January 2, 2019 [15 favorites]

I don't really buy the "coverage is for the money" argument.

“It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS,” Leslie Moonves, chairman of CBS, said of the Trump phenomenon in March, according to the Hollywood Reporter. “The money’s rolling in, and this is fun. It’s a terrible thing to say. But bring it on, Donald. Keep going.”
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:24 AM on January 2, 2019 [31 favorites]

1. I don’t know that France is on the verge of revolution - I was there just recently and spoke to everyone I could about the ‘Gilets jaune’ and the rough concensus was ‘they’re right, but a pain in the ass.’ As in, things aren’t so almighty terrible. That said, Paris reminded me of Manhattan more than ever - specifically the division between rich and poor. In the countryside it’s kind of like the country side in the US pockets of hard poverty mixed with getting by. The big difference is that there’s no health care nightmare waiting to mug people, and schools are still ‘free’ and pretty good.

2. Warren’s proposal to make Washington/ the government less corrupt was - I thought - a terrific proposal and I hope at some time it gets the attention it deserves. The whole genetic testing thing though struck me as rcrazily I’ll thought-out. Personally I hope for a candidate who is - say Obama’s age group. I want my politicians to represent as many of the majority groups as possible.
posted by From Bklyn at 5:04 AM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

start giving people an option that is credibly working to help them afford housing and save their children from inheriting an uninhabitable hellscape

Witness and amen! FFS main stream politicians that are supposedly on "our side" need to get on the bus or get the fuck out of the way.
posted by Meatbomb at 5:14 AM on January 2, 2019

@parscale The truth is @MittRomney lacked the ability to save this nation. @realDonaldTrump has saved it. Jealously is a drink best served warm and Romney just proved it. So sad, I wish everyone had the courage @realDonaldTrump had.
posted by scalefree at 6:02 AM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

Fun fact: Romney got a higher percentage of the vote than Trump. 47.2% to 46.1.
posted by chris24 at 6:09 AM on January 2, 2019 [18 favorites]

It's been suggested that Parscale's odd metaphor is not just a malapropism but an anti-Mormon dog whistle about their prohibition on caffeinated coffee & tea, collectively known as "hot drinks" by the church. Just throwing that out there.
posted by scalefree at 6:17 AM on January 2, 2019 [19 favorites]

It's also been suggested that Parscale is a) one of those who tweets under his boss's handle in the uncanny valley of word salad; b) someone who, like Junior and Roger Stone, has not yet been interviewed by Mueller.
posted by holgate at 6:21 AM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

For the 12th consecutive day, there is no public schedule for Trump today. The White House hasn't released one since December 22.
posted by octothorpe at 6:34 AM on January 2, 2019 [28 favorites]

Charlie Pierce: The Only Mantle Mitt Romney Might Seize Is Being the Biggest Fake in American Politics

When the new Congress is sworn in on Thursday, Willard Romney will be the new junior senator from Utah. This is allegedly the same Willard Romney who once bragged about being better on LGBTQ issues than Ted Kennedy, who wanted to run for president in 2000 as the Republican governor who got Massachusetts a healthcare plan, and who ran 12 years later as a "severe conservative" who didn't even recognize the Republican governor who got Massachusetts a health care plan, who gave a ringing condemnation of candidate Donald Trump and then broke escargots with the president*-elect when he dangled the State Department in front of Romney's eager eyes.

I say it's "allegedly" this same person because the question of whether or not he is an unprincipled reprogrammable android is still quite open. It is open because, lo and behold, in Wednesday's Washington Post, something like Romney 4.0 (or 5.0—I lost count sometime around his Dinner With Donald) has produced an essay by which the most recent Romney iteration appears to be aiming to replace Jeff Flake as the Most Deeply Furrowed Republican Brow in the Senate.
[...]
I can't take this seriously. I've watched Mitt Romney for his entire political career and the man simply has no permanent core of political principles. Not the sliver of one. He can change my mind by voting for the bill that's coming out of the House to reopen the government. He can make me doubt my well-learned conclusions by fighting William Barr's bag-job of a confirmation to be attorney general. Until he does something like that—until he does something—I set the over-under on his turtling on something serious at sometime in March.

More distressing than the op-ed itself was the reaction to it. Much of official Washington Knievel-ed to a conclusion that the Romney 4-or-5.0 is all shined up and ready to bring the Republic back onto the right track. It's a wonder that every building in Washington doesn't have cheap aluminum siding.

posted by zombieflanders at 6:42 AM on January 2, 2019 [33 favorites]

Fun fact: Romney got a higher percentage of the vote than Trump. 47.2% to 46.1.

Can this go viral please? Like, right now when they’re trading insults? I’m all for anything that helps push him over the edge and you know he’d hate it soooo much.
posted by Weeping_angel at 6:45 AM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

I will never understand how someone like Parscale can be such a publicly mewling sycophant without their skin crawling right off of them in embarrassment, like even if you genuinely admired someone (and these Trump ass-kissers will drop him without a thought when the wind shifts) how do you just demean yourself so transparently in front of the whole world and not just die of humiliation?

My guess is they all must see themselves as manipulators, peddling this garbage to the rubes, while being totally blind to how they themselves are being used and discarded. Because if it's just the money, god their prices are low for total enveloping shame and fully, publicly submitting their gigantic egos to the uber-ego of Trump.
posted by jason_steakums at 6:54 AM on January 2, 2019 [11 favorites]

@gopchairwoman (Rona “don’t tell anyone ‘Romney’ used to appear in this position in my name) McDaniel): POTUS is attacked and obstructed by the MSM media and Democrats 24/7. For an incoming Republican freshman senator to attack @realdonaldtrump as their first act feeds into what the Democrats and media want and is disappointing and unproductive.

@johndingell: It appears that blood is not, in fact, thicker than bullshit. Sorry, Uncle Mitt.
posted by zachlipton at 6:57 AM on January 2, 2019 [49 favorites]

Daniel Dale followed up to say that there is a public schedule for the day, released at around 9.40 ET after his initial tweet: a cabinet meeting with a pool spray, then the "border security" thing. So we'll get to see whether Melania brought back emergency hair and fake tan supplies from Florida.
posted by holgate at 7:01 AM on January 2, 2019

Parscale is such a cipher to me. Didn't he start running with this pack kind of by accident? He's a digital marketing/website guy who got hired by Trump Org and then got rolled over into the campaign probably just because the rodeo of incompetents running it were like "Oh shit, we need a website. Who do we know who does web stuff? Oh, that Brad guy in Texas. Get him on the blower."

And then he emerges full red pill MAGA hat Twitter dickhead.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:04 AM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

I always wonder if these people hitching their wagons to the MAGA-train realize that their entire future lives will be forever tainted. You don't get to not be "Trump 2020 campaign manager" ever, even if you are probably inevitably fired for some reason or other like all the rest.

I think they believed the Shock Jock #TRIGGERTHELIBZ gravy train that people like Milo were riding would boom and last forever. False.

That tweet from Romney's niece is... well, hello, 2019.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:07 AM on January 2, 2019 [15 favorites]

Politico asks:
How does Elizabeth Warren avoid a Clinton redux — written off as too unlikable before her campaign gets off the ground?

Politico wonders: How can we influence readership numbers to match 2016?
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:27 AM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

Parscale is such a cipher to me. Didn't he start running with this pack kind of by accident? ...

And then he emerges full red pill MAGA hat Twitter dickhead.

I think there's a few things going on here.

First (and probably foremost), as jason_steakums notes, most of them think they're the smartest guy in the room and therefore will be the one person to survive all of this relatively unscathed.

Second, Parscale must know by now that the only quality he needs to display is loyalty, and the only form of loyalty that Trump recognizes is hitting back when people try to hit Trump.

Last, charisma is a weird thing. Spend enough time with someone who's a really good manipulator, and you start to believe them, even while simultaneously knowing that you're being manipulated. Yes, we all know that we would never fall victim to that, but.
posted by Etrigan at 7:36 AM on January 2, 2019 [7 favorites]

Parscale's and McDaniel's attacks on Romney aren't simply retaliation for his op-ed; they're opening salvoes on his potential candidacy for 2020. Mitt tipped his hand when he claims, "It is not that all of the president’s policies have been misguided. He was right to align U.S. corporate taxes with those of global competitors, to strip out excessive regulations, to crack down on China’s unfair trade practices, to reform criminal justice and to appoint conservative judges. These are policies mainstream Republicans have promoted for years." He's unmistakably signalling to the GOP donor classes that he'll support all these policies without any of the headaches and embarrassment that come with Trump's behavior.

In a much more subtle move as a 2020 challenger, Nikki Haley deleted her Twitter account's history: "Due to State Dept rules that were changed by the outgoing administration, I have had to clear my personal Twitter account that I have had for years. The followers, the history, the pictures, and all other content. Please refollow and retweet this to your friends. Here’s to 2019!"

Graham Lampa, the Obama State Dept. official who created this policy explains its rationale and why it suggests Haley's laying the groundwork for 2020 (Threadreader). "This policy was written in response to a perception within the Department that some senior officials and spokespeople—especially political appointee ambassadors—were directing official resources be used to build up the followings of their personal social media accounts. We anticipated that as political appointees they’d want to take their followers with them." He further points out that Haley was one of several Trump ambassadors who were violating federal guidelines about Twitter, but by deleting her account, she takes care of that issue. He concludes, "1) She’s running, 2) She’s running against Trump in 2020 for the Republican nomination, and 3) She’s running against him on ethics as a key differentiator."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:41 AM on January 2, 2019 [19 favorites]

Ocasio-Cortez Rips Dem Leadership for Treating Planet-Saving Green New Deal as 'Controversial' (Andrea Germanos, CommonDreams.org)

"We simply don’t have any other choice. If it's radical to propose a solution on the scale of the problem, so be it."
…
According to Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who back in November urged Pelosi to appoint Ocasio-Cortez chair of a Green New Deal select committee, "The problem is institutional—it's a turf war."

Speaking to The Intercept, Khanna said, "There's only one reason the select committee didn't get [more powers], and that is the jurisdictional concerns of Frank Pallone." The New Jersey Democrat is the incoming chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. He also just brushed off the urgency behind the Green New Deal's 10-year time frame for achieving 100 percent renewable electricity, saying, "I don't know if that's technologically feasible."

Khanna also recently accused Pallone of threatening not to move any of his bills because of his support for the Green New Deal.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:47 AM on January 2, 2019 [25 favorites]

He further points out that Haley was one of several Trump ambassadors who were violating federal guidelines about Twitter, but by deleting her account, she takes care of that issue.

Yes, because the people who nominated Trump and then voted for Trump and have continued to block any possibility of his being called to task for any of the federal guidelines, actual laws, and Constitutional limits that he's been violating all along would definitely not vote for Nikki Haley because of her Twitter account.

Given that she had no evident plan in place to transition from @AmbNikkiHaley to @NikkiHaley and (charitably) believes incorrect things about the requirements of those federal guidelines and their effect, I wouldn't attribute any deep strategy to this whole thing. I find it more likely that Nikki Haley -- who had no experience working for the federal government -- did not know nor care about the federal guidelines she would end up violating, still does not know nor care about the federal guidelines she was violating, and some underling thought they could be more loyal to Trump by burning her account on the way out the door.
posted by Etrigan at 7:50 AM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

Romney’s Op-Ed Prompts Call From Within RNC To Protect Trump In 2020 Primary (Kate Riga, TPM)

This is not the first time RNC members have toyed with the idea of manipulating the primary process to give Trump a buffer.

However, a complicating factor in this go-round is the RNC chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel’s, relationship to the man who caused the concern — McDaniel is Romney’s niece.

However, based on McDaniel’s Twitter reaction, she has already decided with whom her loyalty lies.
Ronna McDaniel: POTUS is attacked and obstructed by the MSM media and Democrats 24/7. For an incoming Republican freshman senator to attack @realdonaldtrump as their first act feeds into what the Democrats and media want and is disappointing and unproductive.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:55 AM on January 2, 2019 [9 favorites]

But the province went for Rob's brother/enabler, so who fucking knows.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:05 AM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

U.S. military tweets, then deletes, a New Year’s Eve joke about dropping bombs

"#TimesSquare tradition rings in the #NewYear by dropping the big ball … if ever needed, we are #ready to drop something much, much bigger,” the original post read. “Watch to the end! @AFGlobalStrike @Whiteman_AFB #Deterrence #Assurance #CombatReadyForce #PeacelsOurProfession”

The embedded video showed footage of a B-2 stealth bomber. As the words “STEALTH,” “READY” and “LETHAL” flashed across the screen, the aircraft released bombs. They fall to the ground and crash with a fiery explosion.

Happy New Year, folks!
posted by tonycpsu at 8:05 AM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

If Toronto politics are anything to go by, Romney's gamble might just pay off. After the craziness of Rob Ford, Toronto went for Respectable Conservative Man Who's Been Around For A While And Has Nice Hair.

The photo of Romney sitting down to eat his bowl of turd soup with Trump in the hopes of getting a cabinet position should really be the thing that ends the man's political aspirations beyond where he is now. Rail against Trump all you want, Mittens - you're still willing to kiss ass if you think it will gain you something; you have no spine, no principles, and you sold your soul a long time ago.
posted by nubs at 8:06 AM on January 2, 2019 [11 favorites]

Is Elizabeth Warren Unpopular? It Depends on Whom You Ask. - The Atlantic

The media have focused on her comparatively low approval ratings—but not the misogyny that drives them

Washington Governor Jay Inslee Is Running for President - The Atlantic

Washington Governor Jay Inslee believes his focus on the environment will resonate with voters, but few have heard of him

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:16 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

Harry Reid Has a Few Words for Washington (Dan Winters, New York Times)

The former Senate majority leader on President Trump and Senator Chuck Schumer, and on why he doesn’t regret ending the filibuster for judicial appointments.
…
Reid, who is 79, does not have long to live. I hate to be so abrupt about this, but Reid probably would not mind. In May, he went in for a colonoscopy, the results of which caused concern among his doctors. This led to an M.R.I. that turned up a lesion on Reid’s pancreas: cancer. Reid’s subdued and slightly cold manner, and aggressive anticharisma, have always made him an admirably blunt assessor of situations, including, now, his own: “As soon as you discover you have something on your pancreas, you’re dead.”
…

“Organized crime is a business,” [Reid] told me, “and they are really good with what they do. But they are better off when things are predictable. In my opinion, they do not do well with chaos. And that’s what we have going with Trump.”

Still, Reid added: “Trump is an interesting person. He is not immoral but is amoral. Amoral is when you shoot someone in the head, it doesn’t make a difference. No conscience.” There was a hint of grudging respect in Reid’s tone, which he seemed to catch and correct. “I think he is without question the worst president we’ve ever had,” he said. “We’ve had some bad ones, and there’s not even a close second to him.” He added: “He’ll lie. He’ll cheat. You can’t reason with him.” Once more, a hint of wonder crept into his voice, as if he was describing a rogue beast on the loose in a jungle that Reid knows well.
…

I asked him if he could identify at all with Trump’s dark worldview. “I disagree that Trump is a pessimist,” Reid said, as if to allow him that mantle would be paying him an undeserved compliment. “I think he’s a person who is oblivious to the real world.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 8:17 AM on January 2, 2019 [37 favorites]

Yes, because the people who nominated Trump and then voted for Trump and have continued to block any possibility of his being called to task for any of the federal guidelines, actual laws, and Constitutional limits that he's been violating all along would definitely not vote for Nikki Haley because of her Twitter account.

Lampa may be stretching his interpretation, but Haley's action (and I highly doubt some underling burned her) is not about appealing to voters but about cutting off a potential avenue of attack against her in the primaries: "In short, @NikkiHaley doesn’t want to have a @HillaryClinton-style “scandal” following her from State that involves the mixing of personal & official matters in the digital space. “But her tweets!” = ”But her emails!”"

In this era of social media in politics, Haley's decision to wipe her account and start over isn't an arbitrary one, and its significance is likely to reach far.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:18 AM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

running against Trump in 2020 for the Republican nomination

How is this even possible now that the Trump campaign has taken over the RNC?

The Trump campaign will be running the primaries. (And apparently RNC committeeman Jevon Williams believes the fact that they even have to hold primaries at all is a "loophole"). Why would they ever let Haley or Romney or anyone have a chance?
posted by OnceUponATime at 8:28 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

Haley's action (and I highly doubt some underling burned her) is not about appealing to voters but about cutting off a potential avenue of attack against her in the primaries

I keep saying it, but it still applies, and I feel that Haley would know this as well: There is no way to "cut off a potential avenue of attack" from Republicans in the 21st Century, because they will twist, strangle, make up, and flat-out lie to make up an avenue of attack. John Kerry won a Silver Star in Vietnam, and it got lied about so much that "swiftboating" is now the term for doing that. People still say Barack Obama is a Kenyan-born Muslim. There are people still running "Hillary Clinton Body Count" websites.

Haley has to realize that if she runs, there will be memes about how "Nikki bleachbotted her Twitter account just like Hillary did!"

And the fact that (as I noted) she had no transition plan tells me that even if this was a strategic decision with an eye toward running in 2020 (or even 2024 or 2028 or whenever), it was badly done and will not help her at all.
posted by Etrigan at 8:34 AM on January 2, 2019 [15 favorites]

The President twitted that he'll always be with us
posted by growabrain at 8:38 AM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

It's odd that the conclusion is being made that Haley is looking to primary Trump. I think it much more likely that her political calculus is that she needs to be prepped and ready to go that he won't make it to 2020.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:39 AM on January 2, 2019 [11 favorites]

I think it much more likely that her political calculus is that she needs to be prepped and ready to go that he won't make it to 2020.

Planning for any theoretical post-Trump era is admitting that Trump is mortal and shall not be tolerated.
posted by Etrigan at 9:03 AM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

The President twitted that he'll always be with us

I thought you meant Cheeto, so that sounded ominous.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:06 AM on January 2, 2019 [19 favorites]

I think it much more likely that her political calculus is that she needs to be prepped and ready to go that he won't make it to 2020

There's no reason for anyone in her position not to prepare for both possibilities.
posted by contraption at 9:10 AM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

Washington Governor Jay Inslee believes his focus on the environment will resonate with voters, but few have heard of him

Hello I live in Washington and have watched Inslee show up again and again when Trump has pulled his asshole bullshit. This article suggests he's only got a couple of issues, but in doing so it overlooks Inslee on the fight over refugees and immigration plenty of other areas--and in that, it's still the same Goldilocks handwringing stuff as every other piece about the primaries.

I have much the same reservations about Yet Another White Man Candidate as others. He's not the top candidate in my brain right now. The thing is, if he can get through the shouting match of "I Have A Higher Profile Than You" in the primaries, I think he has a real shot and my only reservation about voting for him is I wouldn't want to lose him as our governor. And with that I'm gonna go back to resentfully glaring at anything that looks like 2020 primary stuff.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:44 AM on January 2, 2019 [21 favorites]

Eric W. Orts (Wharton School) argues in the Atlantic that there might be a path to better apportionment of the Senate. And yes, he knows about Article V.

The Path to Give California 12 Senators, and Vermont Just One
posted by Surely This at 9:50 AM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

will use his presidency as a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities in 2019, agreeing to leave office in exchange for the relevant authorities not pursuing criminal charges against him, his children or the Trump Organization

Mueller has no ability to protect him from NY or other states choosing to take legal action against him. It's possible that he'll make the deal anyway, because Trump is not smart enough to realize that "federal immunity" does not automatically include "state, county, and city immunity," and he may have pissed off his lawyers enough that they just want him to sign something and get out.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:54 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

I think Inslee will make a great candidate, there were a lot of articles back in 2017 on his response to the Muslim ban, pulling out of the Paris Agreement, etc that show how he would run against Trump.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:57 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

If you're interested in the making of the sausage in general or things like sexual harassment and whistleblower protections, you could do worse than to look at this threadreader-simplified series of tweets from Daniel Schulman of Demand Progress about the proposed House rules. It's not comprehensive but it has some interesting bits, like

The House Rules include a fix to the NDA problem, allowing staff to report ethics problems without having to worry about violating NDA. Nicely done. Also seems to require personal financial responsibility for harassers.

I like the Office of Diversity and Inclusion. Seems like this will be a real thing -- implementation will be fascinating. Also glad to see the creation of a whistleblower ombudsman! (Looks like it doesn't create a secure reporting mechanism, tho)

The very first item has links to the source and ways to look at changes along the way.
posted by phearlez at 9:57 AM on January 2, 2019 [10 favorites]

look at this threadreader-simplified series of tweets from Daniel Schulman of Demand Progress about the proposed House rules.

reinstates (?) PayGO

The party establishment is still (?) terrible
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:00 AM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

But... it's a really smart move! Now any time the Republicans call for some bullshit the Democrats say "ok, how are you going to pay for it" and the Republicans can't really complain about that because they're the ones who always call for pay-fors!

And then (here's the key part) next time the Democrats control the Presidency as well as Congress they just... quietly get rid of the PayGO rule.

This costs nothing and gains a bunch.
posted by Justinian at 10:02 AM on January 2, 2019 [11 favorites]

It’s easier than that. Anytime the House majority wants to pass something, they suspend Paygo in the rule that comes with the bill.

Also that Atlantic article is awful. He seems to think Congress can repeal the 17th Amendment (“The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; ...”) with a statute, and that that would also bypass the Article V rule.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 10:06 AM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

But... it's a really smart move! Now any time the Republicans call for some bullshit the Democrats say "ok, how are you going to pay for it" and the Republicans can't really complain about that because they're the ones who always call for pay-fors!

Owning Republican congressmen with facts and reason at the expense of the green new deal and medicare for all: a really smart move
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:07 AM on January 2, 2019 [16 favorites]

GayPo needs to uh. Go.

There’s some good news coming up of the newly democratic controlled NYS senate about reforming the state’s frankly horrible and backward electoral laws by introducing automatic voter registartion.
posted by The Whelk at 10:08 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

I don't think there has ever been a time where Democrats successfully owned Republicans with ironic bipartisanship. Pelosi's move also signals to everyone that the Republican frame of "fiscal responsibility" is the right one. Ugh.

A relevant meme from Waleed Shahid, the communications director of Justice Dems.
posted by Ouverture at 10:13 AM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

Owning Republican congressmen with facts and reason at the expense of the green new deal and medicare for all: a really smart move

Which green new deal were they going to pass with GOP control over the Senate and White House again?
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:14 AM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

Which green new deal were they going to pass with GOP control over the Senate and White House again?

"We won't even make an attempt to confront the existential threat to humanity, and you'll just have to trust us that we will try later after you give us more power" will surely motivate turnout in 2020.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:17 AM on January 2, 2019 [25 favorites]

But... it's a really smart move! Now any time the Republicans call for some bullshit the Democrats say "ok, how are you going to pay for it" and the Republicans can't really complain about that because they're the ones who always call for pay-fors!

Dems in Congress: How do you pay for this?

GOP in Congress: Fuck the poors, that's how.

People Who Vote GOP, even if they're the poors: Sure, sounds good to us.

The PayGo strategy here makes sense to me, too, but I'm not sure how it will make a difference when one side of the argument is immune to every point of logic, including its own. The GOP takes hostages it wants to shoot.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 10:25 AM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

That [Warren Republican] was 24 years ago. Approximately 24 years before Barack Obama started his campaign for the 2008 election, he was trying cocaine.

You are comparing Obama as a teenager to Warren as a full grown adult. And Warren wasn't cloistered in a monastery. She was a law professor -- at Harvard, no less.

I lived through the Reagan era and, I'm sorry, but a grown adult law professor who supported those hideous policies will always be a little bit suspect in my mind. What flaw in her character as a highly educated adult and law professor prevented her from seeing the wrongness of Reagan.

Warren is not a supporter of single-payer or Medicare for All. She sees a role for private insurers in the health economy. Because at heart she is a defender of centrist economics, free enterprise and capitalism.

People can change and Warren can do good work in the Senate. She can even do a lot of good in the presidential debates talking about her pet issues. But when it comes to the most important job in the U.S. I think Democrats can do better.
posted by JackFlash at 10:33 AM on January 2, 2019 [16 favorites]

we are going to "Democrats can do better" ourselves into a real pickle, aren't we
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:35 AM on January 2, 2019 [84 favorites]

"fiscal responsibility"

It bothers me that no one is pushing back on this, so I will push back. It's true that the US has gotten away with massive deficits for many years with no apparent ill effects. But I think that's mostly because we managed the world's reserve currency (and the currency in which oil and other commodities were traded) and the international banking system, and because our government was perceived as stable, which made our bonds a good investment.

Trump is changing all that. Our allies don't want to be tied so tightly to our financial and banking systems any more. There's a push to find other currencies to use for commodities trading. And our government no longer looks like the rock of stability it once was. The more Trump succeeds at eroding our special position, the more we are vulnerable to a debt crisis or inflation spiral like other countries have experienced. (And, I mean, some of these changes would probably happen with or without Trump. We can only exploit our post-WWII advantage for so long.)

"Fiscal responsibility" doesn't need scare quotes. We SHOULD be working to avoid a debt crisis or inflation spiral.

"PayGo" doesn't mean you can't do deficit spending. It means you can't do even MORE deficit spending than we're already doing (which is a LOT since the tax bill took effect). If you want to spend money, you need a revenue source. But I don't think that's hard. We can start by undoing some of the stuff the Republican tax law just did. In an era of staggaring wealth inequality, there is some virtue in raising taxes on the very wealthy for its own sake! But also we should also be realistic in our spending plans. If we implement programs that don't work or aren't sustainable, that WILL backfire politically, and make it harder in the future to get support for better programs.
posted by OnceUponATime at 10:37 AM on January 2, 2019 [13 favorites]

The GOP takes hostages it wants to shoot.

This is a really great summary of GOP politics, and I would amend it to "it will shoot and then successfully blame the Democrats for doing so".
posted by Ouverture at 10:38 AM on January 2, 2019 [19 favorites]

The official motto of the GOP seems to be "Look what you made me do."
posted by Tabitha Someday at 10:41 AM on January 2, 2019 [72 favorites]

The GOP is literally killing children at the border and blaming us for it. Why in God's name should we ever, EVER try to treat them as good-faith actors?
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:43 AM on January 2, 2019 [92 favorites]

Trump doesn’t understand his leverage is gone

Notable mostly for it's explication of Pelosi's way forward:

0. Trump is not teachable or can be negotiated with or will govern even in his own best interest.

1. Fact check in real time. Don't allow the WH to dictate the framing of the narritive.

2. Keep him offside on opinion

3. Offer clear, simple policy alternatives.
posted by bonehead at 10:47 AM on January 2, 2019 [24 favorites]

Trump doesn’t understand his leverage is gone

Trump is not acting presidential.
posted by Melismata at 10:52 AM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

Also that Atlantic article is awful. He seems to think Congress can repeal the 17th Amendment (“The Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years; ...”) with a statute, and that that would also bypass the Article V rule.

I’m glad I’m not the only one baffled by this handwavy daydream being presented as a serious proposal. I guess if you imagine a scenario where Democrats win back the Presidency and Senate, eliminate the filibuster, expel all the small state Senators, impeach the entire Supreme Court and pack it with political operatives, then I can see a path where this goes though.

I wouldn’t put money on it though.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 10:59 AM on January 2, 2019 [7 favorites]

Paygo is bullshit. Only democrats abide by its rules, which hamper efforts to implement legislation that might increase the deficit in the short term while having long term economic or human benefits. Meanwhile, when Republicans are in control they ignore paygo and implement economy destroying policies to enrich themselves and the already rich.

It makes no sense and the only real reason I can see that anyone still supports it is to seem more responsible than the other guys, WHICH NEVER WORKS. No one gives a flying fuck that you played by the arbitrary rules you yourself made up. It's like playing teacher's pet but the teacher still thinks you're an asshole, as does everyone else.

---

On the topic of Warren, I still see people in here talking about her policies, and her platform but these two things do not exist. At least they don't exist in terms of her current presidential ambitions. I understand she has a long voting record and that's very informative. But, I defy you to go to her website or watch her 2020 announcement video and try to find one specific policy proposal.

Her website does have a "fact squad" section with debunking of negative stories about Warren. So, she's already on the defensive and doesn't have a platform. To me it stinks of someone who is going to try to triangulate her positions against public polling to increase her electability. You might say that someone running for president has to appeal to more moderate voters by running to the center and to that I say: President Donald J Trump.

Compare and contrast her with AOC who has bold and clearly stated legislative goals that match the scale of the problems we face as a country. Now I know that getting elected president and getting elected rep for a NYC district are very different, but I don't see how you win without big bold unapologetic ideas for the country. I really do hope that those ideas are forthcoming from Warren, because her initial announcement has left me cold.
posted by runcibleshaw at 11:02 AM on January 2, 2019 [17 favorites]

Because Trump needs to look like he's in charge, he opened this afternoon's cabinet meeting to the press. Reuters White House Correspondent Jeff Mason live-tweeted highlights:

—.⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ says he can work with Democrats in 2019 and get a lot done, then starts talking about caravans and a physical barrier at the US border
—Trump says if we win DACA case in the Supreme Court, we’ll be able to easily make a deal on DACA and the wall
—Trump says we’re in the process of giving out large contracts for 115 miles of border wall in an important area, does not give specifics
—Trump says we are “slowly” bringing people back from Syria after success against ISIS; “we’re down to final blows”
—Asked about timetable for removing troops from Syria, Trump says “someone said” four months but he hasn’t said that.
—.⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ says there could have been a World War III with North Korea; now he has a good relationship with Kim Jong Un and will be setting up another meeting in the not-too-distant future
—Trump says he’s love to read the letter from Kim Jong Un out loud, but declines to do so.
—Trump says, without evidence, there are probably 30-35 million people in the United States illegally
—.⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ says there was a “glitch” in stock markets last month, but they will go up again as trade deals are made and have a long way (up) to go
—Trump says if a wall is immoral, then you have to do something about the Vatican because it has a big wall.

Trump also attacked Romney, said he essentially "fired" Mattis, promised the shutdown would continue for “as long as it takes”, etc., etc. Maybe his telling the press all this nonsense is his method of preparing for the closed-door meeting with the congressional leaders later today.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:06 AM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

seem more responsible than the other guys

You don't see any value in actually being more responsible? Let's say you promise everyone a pony AND a unicorn to get power and then run up huge deficits and then print money to pay for them and then cause an inflationary spiral that makes bread cost $100 per loaf or whatever... What will you now do with that power you fought to win?

Who wants to be emperor of the ashes?
posted by OnceUponATime at 11:06 AM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

It's true that the US has gotten away with massive deficits for many years with no apparent ill effects. But I think that's mostly because we managed the world's reserve currency (and the currency in which oil and other commodities were traded) and the international banking system, and because our government was perceived as stable, which made our bonds a good investment.

Japan has twice the debt of the U.S. and lower interest rates, despite those items you list as important.

Debt fears are a Republican tool. Democrats hampered themselves with PayGo when they created Obamacare, making sure that every dime of it was paid for. And what did they get for it? Not one bit of credit for fiscal responsibility and a lot of grief for Obamacare not being generous enough.
posted by JackFlash at 11:09 AM on January 2, 2019 [44 favorites]

Maybe his telling the press all this nonsense is his method of preparing for the closed-door meeting with the congressional leaders later today.

Maybe he's just crazy.
posted by Melismata at 11:12 AM on January 2, 2019 [20 favorites]

I would be very happy for current Democrats to exercise fiscal responsibility the same way the last two Democratic administrations did: taxation of the wealthy and a (resultant) booming economy.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 11:13 AM on January 2, 2019 [44 favorites]

Trump just said that the USSR was right to invade Afghanistan, live on television.

This is some crazy shit we're living through.
posted by Justinian at 11:13 AM on January 2, 2019 [62 favorites]

You don't see any value in actually being more responsible?

Responsibility is great, but "pay as you go" is actually not a responsible or reasonable way to run a massive economy, especially in the face of a desperate and immediate need for massive public public projects that will cost a lot up front but have enormous economic benefit down the road.
posted by contraption at 11:13 AM on January 2, 2019 [39 favorites]

—Trump says, without evidence, there are probably 30-35 million people in the United States illegally

This is a frequently bandied number in white supremacist circles. There are 36 million mexican-americans in total in the USA. That's not a coincidence.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:15 AM on January 2, 2019 [70 favorites]

I would be very happy for current Democrats to exercise fiscal responsibility the same way the last two Democratic administrations did: taxation of the wealthy and a (resultant) booming economy.

Yes! I am 100% behind any Dem that runs on the following platform planks:

Tax The Rich
Green New Deal
Medicare for All

Three easily understandable, very popular ideas, all of which will produce immediate benefits for working people.
posted by contraption at 11:16 AM on January 2, 2019 [78 favorites]

You have to actually say "Tax the Rich" though, no more fucking around to avoid pissing off donors. Warren came close in her announcement video but she's still not quite there.
posted by contraption at 11:17 AM on January 2, 2019 [16 favorites]

Let's say you promise everyone a pony AND a unicorn to get power and then run up huge deficits and then print money to pay for them and then cause an inflationary spiral that makes bread cost $100 per loaf or whatever.

In the past, the warning about Weimar-style hyperinflation (which followed popular misunderstandings of inter-war German politics) was that such monetary policy would result in a fascist takeover of the United States.

I have been an inflation skeptic myself (though valuation over the last few years, in, specifically, the urban real estate market and high-end art markets have led me to continue to reconsider this position).

We didn't get the hyperinflation, and yet...
posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:18 AM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

Trump says if we win DACA case in the Supreme Court, we’ll be able to easily make a deal on DACA and the wall

You have to read this a couple of times before it really sinks in how gross it is. He’s saying that he wants the Supreme Court to upend the lives of 800,000+ people so that he’ll have a stronger negotiating position to, er, give those people some kind of legal status again. Which, yeah we know that’s how he thinks, but to actually say that out loud is something else: “we hope these people’s status is ruled illegal so we can use them as pawns to legalize their status again” is a truly unconscionable position.

And it shows utterly uninterested in policy the entire GOP is. The legal status of Dreamers is entirely irrelevant except to use them as hostages. Nobody is starting out by determining a desired policy outcome and working to enact it. It’s all just conniving, and he’ll happily admit that out loud.
posted by zachlipton at 11:24 AM on January 2, 2019 [37 favorites]

I have been an inflation skeptic myself (though valuation over the last few years, in, specifically, the urban real estate market and high-end art markets have led me to continue to reconsider this position).

An asset bubble is not monetary inflation.
posted by JackFlash at 11:25 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

@ddale8: Trump says that if the courts say Obama had the right to do DACA unilaterally, he can do whatever he wants on lots of other stuff. He adds: "Can you imagine me having this power? Wouldn't that be scary?"

Oh.
posted by zachlipton at 11:28 AM on January 2, 2019 [40 favorites]

I live in a country that has very low debt and very high taxes. This, I believe, is good in many ways. I pay taxes just fine.
It's true that the US can have a different understanding of debt because of the special status of the dollar in global trade. But that special status can be exhausted and is being exhausted. Even in a situation where the Euro is weak, more and more countries and traders are turning to it, because of the volatility of US politics.
Low national debt leaves a large spending room for the government, in case of a national emergency. Like radical climate change. Right now our bonds are boring and I have no idea who wants them. But come the day when all other bonds are extremely high risk, I can see how our current low debt low risk can be an advantage. Remember how a huge part of global economy is locked into pension funds and similar organisations that are risk aversive. (Which is in itself a huge problem). If the US government had not been mired in historic levels of debt, Obama and the short-lived Democratic majority could have rolled out universal healthcare as an experiment, regardless of costs. In the knowledge that every other Western country had lower costs and better outcomes of healthcare. There would have been no doubt that it could be done. It's not for fun that every Republican administration marks up the debt. They want to block any opportunity to create a welfare state. They use military spending and tax cuts because these are hard to argue against, so Democrats need to practice their arguing.
posted by mumimor at 11:30 AM on January 2, 2019 [30 favorites]

mumimor: It's not for fun that every Republican administration marks up the debt. They want to block any opportunity to create a welfare state.

I believe it was Tommy Douglas - who brought universal healthcare to Canada - who pointed out that debt is bad for socialists because it means putting the fate of your social programs in the hands of your bankers.
posted by clawsoon at 11:43 AM on January 2, 2019 [15 favorites]

“I think he is without question the worst president we’ve ever had,” he said. “We’ve had some bad ones, and there’s not even a close second to him.” He added: “He’ll lie. He’ll cheat. You can’t reason with him.” Once more, a hint of wonder crept into his voice, as if he was describing a rogue beast on the loose in a jungle that Reid knows well.

Late in his career, I met Ernest Hollings at a meet-and-greet and at one point someone made a remark about the then President, GWB, and the Senator kind of snorted and said "That man ruint this country!"
posted by octobersurprise at 11:46 AM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

Tax The Rich
Green New Deal
Medicare for All

okay but what about tax credit funded carbon neutral offset integrated care consortiums
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:49 AM on January 2, 2019 [11 favorites]

Kevin Baker, Harpers: The Crisis of Our Constitution

An innate flaw in our Constitution is that it has always drained too much of our democratic energies just to change it, diverting the best efforts of our people to decades-long struggles simply to win the right to, say, form unions, levy an income tax on ourselves, extend the vote to women, prohibit lynching, or guarantee our civil rights and liberties. The time and the effort it has required to do all of that has brought us over and over to the edge of disaster.

posted by Surely This at 11:50 AM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

okay but what about tax credit funded

okay slow down there, please explain how you fund something with tax credits because this could change everything
posted by murphy slaw at 11:55 AM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

An innate flaw in our Constitution is that it has always drained too much of our democratic energies just to change it,...

Maybe, but keep in mind it's a double-edged sword. And if we make it simply a majority vote to amend the Constitution, it becomes not-a-constitution, but simple majoritarian rule.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:55 AM on January 2, 2019 [10 favorites]

You don't see any value in actually being more responsible? Let's say you promise everyone a pony AND a unicorn to get power and then run up huge deficits and then print money to pay for them and then cause an inflationary spiral that makes bread cost $100 per loaf or whatever... What will you now do with that power you fought to win?

Who wants to be emperor of the ashes?

It's a false equivalence. Paygo doesn't actually have anything to do with being responsible stewards of the economy. It's nothing more than a merit badge that says "look we followed this rule". Of course if you implement irresponsible legislation that causes hyperinflation that's bad, but that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about the ability to implement good economic policy without an arbitrary restrictions on what we can do. We can certainly argue about what that policy is, but it has nothing to do with paygo.

Perhaps the whole debate is overblown. I don't know. But if the difference between passing (yes, I know it'll be hard to pass anyway) medicare-for-all legislation and not passing it is paygo, then paygo should be nuked from orbit.
posted by runcibleshaw at 12:01 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

Oh.

Yeah and no and yeah, maybe? As Kate Shaw noted to Chris Hayes (aka Mr Kate Shaw) the reason DACA made it all the way to SCOTUS was that it was put together by a competent administration and declared unconstitutional by an incompetent one. But that still leaves open who has power to impose judicial restraint on the executive branch.

It appears that the toadiest of toadies have been whispering about executive power into their boss's ear while he stewed in DC over the holidays.
posted by holgate at 12:05 PM on January 2, 2019

You have to actually say "Tax the Rich" though, no more fucking around to avoid pissing off donors. Warren came close in her announcement video but she's still not quite there.

I wonder if Kirsten Gillibrand will be first out of this gate - given that she's already told donors who are holding grudges over Al Franken "sucks to be you," she could turn that into an unmitigated asset. I'm already very pro-Gillibrand 2020, and if she forswore big donors, I'd campaign my heart out for her.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 12:07 PM on January 2, 2019 [22 favorites]

WaPo, Greg Sargent, There’s no dealing with Trump. So a long-term plan to save the ‘dreamers’ is taking shape.

This has the background on what Trumo was talking about. In short: get a bill through the House and dare the Senate to blink in an election year. Which isn’t great, but there aren’t a lot of options.
posted by zachlipton at 12:22 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

I love Connie Schultz.

posted by jenfullmoon at 9:16 PM on January 1 [8 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]

Wow! I wasn't aware of her before, but what a dynamo. Maybe she should be the one to run for president.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:27 PM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

That article by Sargent isn’t very satisfying, as it has a lot of “if this, then maybe that, and then maybe something else, unless the GOP doesn’t want to.” But it did remind me of this:

That alone is more evidence that there’s no negotiating with Trump. And let’s remember the history: A year ago, Democrats offered Trump $25 billion for his wall in exchange for legalizing the Dreamers, but Stephen Miller got Trump to walk away because the deal didn’t include huge cuts to legal immigration, which is the real Trump-Miller holy grail.

Which, when now considering that Trump is probably going to get nothing beyond maintenance funds — and that only after pissing off hundrds of thousands of furloughed federal workers, unpaid contractors and national park visitors — draws in stark relief just how incompetent a negotiator he really is.
posted by darkstar at 12:37 PM on January 2, 2019 [35 favorites]

Iran 'Can Do What They Want' in Syria, Trump Says - from Haaretz
I don't even know evens anymore
posted by mumimor at 12:52 PM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

Her website does have a "fact squad" section with debunking of negative stories about Warren. So, she's already on the defensive and doesn't have a platform. To me it stinks of someone who is going to try to triangulate her positions against public polling to increase her electability. You might say that someone running for president has to appeal to more moderate voters by running to the center and to that I say: President Donald J Trump.

So we're back to the most liberal member of the Dem Senate caucus is somehow not progressive enough? Is actually a third wayer like Hillary? Amazing how the same arguments that were used against Hillary are appearing against Warren.

I know the next paragraph mentions appreciation of AOC, but that's also like 2016 when so many said they'd definitely support a woman, just not Hillary. Someone like Warren. So many people specifically said Warren. Gonna be fun to see these people tap dance away from that now that she's actually a candidate. It always seems there's something wrong with the woman running but this next woman I can't vote for this time is definitely the one I would vote for.

(Talking in generalities about this dynamic, not you specifically runcibleshaw)
posted by chris24 at 12:53 PM on January 2, 2019 [72 favorites]

Self-promo but I think of interest here, News You May Have Missed, which I have mentioned before (it's a weekly news aggregation thing I started in 2017 which has grown to be produced by four to six volunteers at any given time) - we have a website now! Here's our most recent weekly roundup. I'm still fighting with wordpress to create an RSS feed but hope to have that done soon.

Also, Postcards to Voters is currently writing to get Florida residents to sign up for Vote by Mail. Volunteer. It's super easy and flexible - I try to do 20 postcards/week but I love crafting and coloring. You can do as few as 4 postcards as often or as infrequently as the spirit takes you.
posted by joannemerriam at 12:55 PM on January 2, 2019 [16 favorites]

I just saw a bunch of screenshots from 8chan posts that are all variations of "now that Warren has declared, time to get out there, pretend to be Democrats and accuse her of [all the things she is currently being accused of]! MAGA!"

Not accusing anyone here of being an 8chan shitposter but just be aware that we're so good at doing this on our own side organically that even 17-year-old 8chan morons have noticed and can pretend to do it just as convincingly as we actually do it.
posted by soren_lorensen at 12:57 PM on January 2, 2019 [58 favorites]

I DON’T HATE WOMEN CANDIDATES — I JUST HATED HILLARY AND COINCIDENTALLY I’M STARTING TO HATE ELIZABETH WARREN (McSweeney's)
posted by neroli at 1:10 PM on January 2, 2019 [124 favorites]

That McSweeney’s is just about perfect, neroli — thank you.

I sadly anticipate linking to it many times over the coming year.
posted by darkstar at 1:16 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

It's so hilarious to erase the fact that the backlash was driven by Native women! HAHAHA!
posted by zombieflanders at 1:23 PM on January 2, 2019 [7 favorites]

I would love to avoid the whole conversational whirlpool where we caricature anyone who criticizes any woman candidate for any reason as a misogynist. How about we assume good faith in our fellow mefites? A lot of socialist women got awful sick of being called bros during the 2016 primary, I vote we skip that this time.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 1:24 PM on January 2, 2019 [10 favorites]

Want some HOPE? Look no further than this photo on Ocasio-Cortez's Instagram.
posted by vac2003 at 1:25 PM on January 2, 2019 [43 favorites]

we’ve devoted whole threads to Warren, her DNA thing, etc; let’s not.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:26 PM on January 2, 2019 [14 favorites]

If people can't tell that theMcSweeney's link is satire they may want to reconsider their ability to exist on the internet.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 1:32 PM on January 2, 2019 [19 favorites]

January 2, 2019 — the day the 2020 Presidential Primaries truly began on MeFi.
posted by darkstar at 1:32 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

January 2, 2019 — the day the Primaries truly began on MeFi.

On the bright side, at least it will (mostly) stop us from rehashing the 2016 primaries.
posted by diogenes at 1:35 PM on January 2, 2019 [23 favorites]

If people can't tell that theMcSweeney's link is satire they may want to reconsider their ability to exist on the internet.

That's not the problem. The problem is that it's such shitty satire that it gets to the point where it erases the identities and valid criticisms of marginalized groups.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:35 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

My only hope is that Warren doesn't actually want to run, and is playing some sort of 8-dimensional chess by volunteering to be the lightning-rod for the next several months.

The conservative slander machine is unfortunately super-effective, and Warren has been in their crosshairs for a long time. I'm not happy about it, but I think the sad reality is that it's incredibly dangerous for the Democrats to have any kind of frontrunner. Nobody should be announcing their candidacy until the last possible moment, lest the troll factories be given more time to seed doubt and uncertainty about those candidates.
posted by schmod at 1:37 PM on January 2, 2019 [7 favorites]

the liberal/left slander machine is also unfortunately super-effective, and we will be treated to a great many arguments about why repeating Breitbart bullshit verbatim is fine and appropriate and not indicative of misogyny at all and I hope it gets called out every fucking time.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:39 PM on January 2, 2019 [45 favorites]

January 2, 2019 — the day the Primaries truly began on MeFi.

On the bright side, at least it will (mostly) stop us from rehashing the 2016 primaries.

I doubt+hope that proves to be the case.
posted by kingless at 1:41 PM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

To be clear, I'm not criticizing Warren the legislator. I'm criticizing the current state of her nascent run for president, which I don't think got off on the best foot and which I hope gets better. I mean, that video seemed to strike a chord with people, which is good. It just didn't have specifics to back it up yet, which maybe his how presidential campaigns start? I don't know.
posted by runcibleshaw at 1:46 PM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

Mang I dunno about all this Warren ladyparts-having but remember when we were wondering, some of us hopefully, if Avenatti would run and now we're loudly demanding details on a green new deal from Actual Candidate Elizabeth Warren, which is actually pretty exciting?

All things considered, I'll take it.

It's so hilarious to erase the fact that the backlash was driven by Native women! HAHAHA!
posted by zombieflanders at 5:23 AM on January 3 [4 favorites +] [!]

It's totally not, and Actual Candidate Elizabeth Warren should get on figuring out how to make this right in the public eye.
posted by saysthis at 1:48 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

erases the identities and valid criticisms of marginalized groups.

I think the "thus endeth my Native American advocacy until the day I die" part is an indication that they're pillorying people who don't actually care about Native issues, and definitions of Native identity, in any way. Some people are just looking for excuses to dislike the female candidate and will cite any criticism of that candidate by anyone as their own reason for disliking her.

In other words -- there are legitimate reasons for disliking female candidates, and then there are excuses. Sometimes it can be hard to tell the difference. But if your criticisms are deeply rooted in issues you have invested a lot of time and effort in -- that's probably legit. If you're a socialist activist who has also criticized Biden, Schumer, Obama, etc. and also has issues with Beto and Brown -- fine, criticize Warren as well for not being leftist enough for you. If you're a Native American activist whose identity is invested in a culture and a group of people and not in a DNA test result -- by all means criticize Warren for trying to co-opt that identity.

But if you find yourself echoing these criticisms even though you have previously supported politicians to Warren's right or have never engaged with Native American culture or advocacy at all... Then maybe those aren't your real reasons for disliking her.
posted by OnceUponATime at 1:51 PM on January 2, 2019 [77 favorites]

Reflecting further on the $25 billion the Dems offered Trump for the Wall last year, compared to the $1.3 billion or so in maintenance funds he looks likely to get now, it’s just another reminder that elections have consequences.

By voting in a Democratic House, US taxpayers have already saved over $23 billion.

You’re welcome, America!
posted by darkstar at 1:51 PM on January 2, 2019 [39 favorites]

The buzz on Iowa politics twitter is that Warren is putting together an absolute Iowa campaign dream team, and it's going to be daunting for other candidates to find top staff here. Also, she's hired a mix of former Hillary people and former Bernie people. I'm actually a little surprised by it: I'm not hearing a lot of enthusiasm for Warren on the ground, but apparently the top campaign staffers think she has more of a shot.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:53 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

lol in these threads we're always all like "Democrats need to be ruthless like Trump/the GOP to win, fuck civility, fuck the rules, fuck good governance" but as soon as a woman candidate steps in it it's all "oh well now she needs to figure out exactly how to make every possible stakeholder in her fuck-up satisfied that she has learned how bad she is"
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:53 PM on January 2, 2019 [74 favorites]

If you're a Native American activist whose identity is invested in a culture and a group of people and not in a DNA test result -- by all means criticize Warren for trying to co-opt that identity.

So you know this is what actually happened, right, and what several of us pointed out? And yet that fact is characterized above as "the liberal/left slander machine...repeating Breitbart bullshit verbatim," even though there were plenty of Native activists critical of this years before Breitbart even bothered to shit their articles out.
posted by zombieflanders at 1:54 PM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

I can differentiate between Native activists and opportunists.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:56 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

Via Stonekettle...The official U.S. Secretary of Defense changed his FB profile picture, and folks have noticed. "YOURE NOT MY REAL DAD." "Toby from the office is now the secretary of defense. Wow, great." "I'm pretty sure that it's still Mattis. He just skinned this guy and made a lame-looking-normal-dude suit as a disguise."
posted by MonkeyToes at 1:56 PM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

I would much rather support Gillibrand, Harris, or Klobuchar than Warren, but that doesn't make her a bad candidate - just one facing a field of strong contenders.

If Warren wins the primary, I won't be holding my nose to vote for her in 2020.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:58 PM on January 2, 2019 [14 favorites]

Enough on Warren/DNA. Drop it.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:58 PM on January 2, 2019 [28 favorites]

As someone who equally values racial, sexual, and economic justice, I view most Democratic politicians as being generally more or less ok on the first two (with some majorly problematic exceptions) but absolutely terrible on the last one. I see Warren as better on economic justice than most other potential candidates. As a socialist it absolutely grates on me that she used to be a republican and currently identifies as a capitalist. The fact that she's aiming to reform rather than evolve past capitalism bothers me.

There's a long history of bourgeois businesspeople seeing the guillotines coming out and instituting minor reforms at the last minute, just enough to keep it all from falling down around them. Warren, coming from finance herself, seems to see herself filling this role, and even pretty much presents her reforms that way.

However, I actually quite liked the actual substance of her "Accountable Capitalism Act". In particular, the requirement that corporations allow their workers to elect 40% of the membership of the board of directors. Obviously, as a socialist I want that to be 100%, but shifting the balance of power that far in the favor of workers is at least a significant step in the right direction.

So right now I guess I see her as my number 2 pick behind the one likely candidate who is explicitly anti-capitalist. But if she won I wouldn't be mad.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 2:05 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

The threst of possible downsides to deficit spending pales in comparison to the threat of human extinction.
posted by The Whelk at 2:15 PM on January 2, 2019 [17 favorites]

I mean, many Americans are dying a slow financial death due to their university degrees, houses, and cars, so
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:20 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

We have already spent more time worrying about Paygo than the entire 116th Congress will spend dealing with it. The Rules committee waives “all points of order against consideration of the bill” as a matter of course.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 2:21 PM on January 2, 2019 [20 favorites]

I mean, many Americans are dying a slow financial death due to their university degrees, houses, and cars, so

I can assure you they would die faster if they were homeless and uneducated.
posted by srboisvert at 2:41 PM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

From CNN's live feed of the Trump shutdown

—Mitch McConnell: It may take “weeks” to resolve shutdown

“We had a good discussion on border security issue. I don’t think any particular progress was made today. But we talked about all aspects of it and it was a civil discussion and we are hopeful that somehow in the coming days or weeks we will be able to reach an agreement," the Kentucky Republican said.

—Democrats say no progress was made in meeting with Trump

Democrats emerging from a meeting with President Trump indicated there was no breakthrough that might lead to a reopening of the government.

"Our question to the President and to the Republicans is why don’t you accept what you have already done to open up government?" said Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the presumed new House Speaker.

Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, said he asked Trump in a meeting on border security in the Situation Room why the government couldn't be reopened while they two sides resolve their differences on the border.

"We asked him to give us one good reason — I asked him directly," Schumer said. "He could not give a good answer."

The government has been partially shut down for 11 days, 17 hours, and 49 minutes.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:49 PM on January 2, 2019 [40 favorites]

Sounds like they're trying to convert federal employees into Democrat voters?
posted by rhizome at 2:58 PM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

According to I-1, they already are democrats.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:02 PM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

I trust the ballots more than him.
posted by rhizome at 3:06 PM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

okay slow down there, please explain how you fund something with tax credits because this could change everything

A ~~wizard~~ wonk did it
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:33 PM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

I’m a level 7 Wonk in Wizards & Wonks.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 3:36 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

CNN: Source: Trump Tells Schumer He Can't Accept Dems' Offer Because He'd 'Look Foolish'

President Donald Trump told a group of lawmakers he can't accept Democrats' offer to re-open the government as the two sides negotiate border wall funding because he "would look foolish if I did that," according to a person familiar with the exchange.[…]

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he asked Trump why the government couldn't be reopened while the two sides work to resolve their differences.

"I asked him directly ... He could not give a good answer," Schumer said.

After Democrats explained their plan to pass measures funding the government -- including the Department of Homeland Security -- at least temporarily as negotiations continued, Schumer repeatedly asked Trump why he opposed that approach, the person familiar with the exchange said.

Eventually Schumer asked a third time for one reason Trump wouldn't accept the offer, and Trump responded: "I would look foolish if I did that."

Buzzfeed: Trump’s Allies Want Him To Keep The Government Shut Down—"At this point, you might as well keep fighting the fight.”

Trump continuing to dig in is “all around a good move," said a former White House official. "In Trump's own words: 'What the hell do you have to lose?'"

"This is why he got elected," the former official added. "He tried playing it by DC's rules, now he's doing it his way. He wasn't elected to do things the way they've always been done."[…]

Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, a close Trump ally and a regular on Fox News, also pointed out in a recent appearance on the president's favorite network that many of the districts in Maryland and Virginia where government employees live are now represented by Democrats.

"As we roll deeper into the shutdown, I think that the Democrats will experience more pain than the Republicans," he said.

Stories from government employees or their family members about how the shutdown was affecting them went viral on Twitter during the holidays. About 800,000 federal workers are expected to be furloughed or working without pay. But the president is not one to make his political decisions based on the plight of government workers, said former senator Rick Santorum, a Trump defender on CNN, after Thursday’s cabinet meeting. “The president is not long on empathy,” he said on the network. “The president really thinks he can weather this storm.”[…]

Despite the impasse, another source close to the White House said the partial shutdown had not been getting the kind of wall-to-wall coverage past funding crises have received, making it unnecessary for Trump to give up at this point.

"When an op-ed from Mitt Romney can take over the news cycle with 25% of the government shut down, it’s not really a crisis," the source said, referring to Romney's op-ed in the Washington Post criticizing the president. "Any hit Trump was going to take on the shutdown happened right away. It’s not like three weeks later there are going to be people who are all of a sudden like, 'At first I didn’t care, but now Trump is really screwing us.'"

"At this point, you might as well keep fighting the fight."

As usual, Trump's politics of narcissim have aligned with the GOP's politics of sadism.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:46 PM on January 2, 2019 [43 favorites]

It’s not like three weeks later there are going to be people who are all of a sudden like, 'At first I didn’t care, but now Trump is really screwing us.'"

I rather suspect that this is an ever-increasing slope upward. So no, not three weeks from now, all at once. Just a steadily rising wave of pissed-off.
posted by dragstroke at 3:51 PM on January 2, 2019 [11 favorites]

I am a government contractor. I live paycheck to paycheck. The funding for my contract runs out January 11th. If the shutdown goes through that date I will be down at the white house with a pitchfork and torch.
posted by runcibleshaw at 3:53 PM on January 2, 2019 [58 favorites]

Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, a close Trump ally and a regular on Fox News, also pointed out in a recent appearance on the president's favorite network that many of the districts in Maryland and Virginia where government employees live are now represented by Democrats.

"As we roll deeper into the shutdown, I think that the Democrats will experience more pain than the Republicans," he said.

Beyond how fucked up and un-American this is, it's also... questionable.

Rosa Brooks
The federal employees not getting paid include 54000 border patrol guards, 53000 ICE employees, 41000 prison guards, DEA, ATF and FBI agents, 53000 TSA employees, 42,000 Coast guard personnel & thousands of firefighters. But they’re mostly Democrats, says Trump. So that’s okay.
posted by chris24 at 3:55 PM on January 2, 2019 [52 favorites]

Pelosi on negotiations with Trump: ‘Nothing for the wall’.

"Are you willing to come up and give him some of this money for the wall?" -@SavannahGuthrie
"No." -@NancyPelosi
"Because apparently that's the sticking point." -Guthrie
"No, no. Nothing for the wall." -Pelosi

She didn't say Trump should put up the money for the gaming license out of his own funds but damn close!
posted by Justinian at 4:21 PM on January 2, 2019 [27 favorites]

The federal employees not getting paid include 54000 border patrol guards, 53000 ICE employees, 41000 prison guards, DEA, ATF and FBI agents, 53000 TSA employees, 42,000 Coast guard personnel & thousands of firefighters. But they’re mostly Democrats, says Trump. So that’s okay.

The longer the shutdown goes on, the more the "the people who got fucked by the shutdown will only be Democrats!" turns into a self-fulling prophecy.
posted by sideshow at 4:27 PM on January 2, 2019 [12 favorites]

Sounds like they're trying to convert federal employees into Democrat voters?

Democratic voters, please.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:28 PM on January 2, 2019 [24 favorites]

No, I intentionally spelled it that way to indicate they would be members of the Democratic Party.
posted by rhizome at 4:35 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

Yep. those 53000 ICE employees are obviously in the demographic to be big fans of Nancy Pelosi and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - or will soon. Because it's one thing to consider eliminating your job and another to just stop paying you. (But I've known a couple people who Private Citizen Trump just stopped paying a couple decades ago)
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:36 PM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

Dave Brat has landed on his feet as Dean of Liberty University's business school. It's a strange choice given how he responded to allegations that he plagiarized an academic paper while teaching at Randolph-Macon.

Tonight NBC nightly news saw fit to uncritically air Trump lying about Wall, then they gave air time to the non-story that Elizabeth Warren is being criticized for her inauthentic pandering because she sipped a beer during a live chat.
posted by peeedro at 4:46 PM on January 2, 2019 [13 favorites]

No, I intentionally spelled it that way to indicate they would be members of the Democratic Party.

The capital D also conveys that.
posted by Etrigan at 4:46 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

There’s nothing I love more than intensely petty pedantry over the exact grammatical form to use to refer to members of a political party.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 4:48 PM on January 2, 2019 [10 favorites]

As has been discussed repeatedly. "Democrat Party" is a slur used by the right and should never be used by non-(fascist lying Fox News) folks...
posted by Windopaene at 4:54 PM on January 2, 2019 [31 favorites]

intensely petty pedantry

It's not pedantry when one party has deliberately turned one form into a slur.
posted by TwoStride at 4:54 PM on January 2, 2019 [24 favorites]

I know that Republicans on cable news like to do that for some reason. I doubt it's particularly effective. But to worry about it happening on MetaFilter seems totally at odds with reality. Nobody on here is using that grammatical construction to malign the Democratic Party, and nobody reading MetaFilter would be influenced by it anyway. If optics are what you're worried about, I'd argue that relentlessly dogpiling on every person who accidentally happens to use the word that way makes us look like a bunch of lunatics.

It comes up all the time in these threads and it's pure noise.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 5:01 PM on January 2, 2019 [39 favorites]

I used to get angry when “Democrat” was used instead of “Democratic.” Now I often don’t even notice—the term has become an acceptable variant. “Democrat” no longer offends me, at least.
posted by haiku warrior at 5:02 PM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

Isn't getting upset about "Democrat" exactly why they use that term?
posted by reductiondesign at 5:03 PM on January 2, 2019 [13 favorites]

I mean, they made "liberal" a slur for a long time, too. And "socialist". "Democrat Party" may be grammatically incorrect, but avoiding it because Republicans chuckle derisively when they say it is hardly a reason to ban the word and cede them ground. This comes up again and again and again in these threads and remains, to me, such a dumb hill to die on.
posted by Roommate at 5:04 PM on January 2, 2019 [7 favorites]

Hey, we really don't need to spend this long going over the dumb abridging-it-to-Democrat-Party thing again.
posted by cortex (staff) at 5:09 PM on January 2, 2019 [31 favorites]

CNN's Katelyn Polantz:

From "the legal industry is a small world" files:
-Laura Grossfield Birger is the new chief of the criminal division in the Manhattan US Attorney's Office.
-Birger represented Mueller defendant Alex Van Der Zwaan.
-SDNY is investigating VDZ's former boss.

Courthouse News's Adam Klasfield:

Pictured {1} {2}: Mueller's letter last year to Laura Grossfield Birger, in her capacity as then-attorney for Alex van der Zwaan.

Today, Birger became the chief of the criminal division in SDNY, a district that looms large in the Russia probe.

My write-up: https://www.courthousenews.com/new-sdny-recruit-has-ties-to-mueller-probe/

posted by Doktor Zed at 5:21 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

CREW's Noah Bookbinder:

The National Park Service's site at the Old Post Office, where the President has his hotel, will be reopening this weekend despite the ongoing government shutdown. Raises all manner of conflict of interest questions.
NATIONAL PARKS: Old Post Office Tower at Trump hotel to open during shutdown
Jennifer Yachnin, E&E News reporter
Published: Wednesday, January 2, 2019
President Trump's last-minute demands for billions in border wall funding triggered the partial federal government shutdown that closed national parks and facilities late last month — but his namesake hotel in the nation's capital will see its own National Park Service site reopen this week.

posted by Doktor Zed at 5:53 PM on January 2, 2019 [17 favorites]

Warren goes after Lieberman as an example of the corrupt revolving door of lawmaker to lobbyist.

Despite my earlier reservations, if Warren's entire platform consists of nothing but "make Joe Lieberman illegal", she's got my vote.
posted by runcibleshaw at 6:07 PM on January 2, 2019 [78 favorites]

Federalist writer, Fox News guest Bre Payton dies at 26 from the flu.

She was anti-vaccine and anti-health care.

Also note that the CDC is affected by the government shutdown, just as flu season is ramping up.
posted by elsietheeel at 6:12 PM on January 2, 2019 [25 favorites]

Federalist writer, Fox News guest Bre Payton dies at 26 from the flu. She was anti-vaccine and anti-health care. .

WTF? The Onion is also affected by the shutdown?
posted by growabrain at 6:28 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

It always seems there's something wrong with the woman running but this next woman I can't vote for this time is definitely the one I would vote for.

I have honestly given up hope that I will ever see a woman president in my lifetime. Forget about voters who always seem to find excuses to not like the woman; the media is so fundmantally incapable of examining its own bias that it is absolutely breathtaking to me. I'll bet anyone whatever money they want that we see journalists for major networks chiding women candidates for seeming angry or not smiling enough in the year of our lord 2019. I mean, they can't even get the fucking basics down, you know? And the narrative they put out there matters a lot. Framing matters.

In my heart of hearts, I would love to see Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand or Elizabeth Warren win the nomination. But I just don't have any faith at all, in our current environment, that they will fare any better than Clinton.

Amy Klobuchar, on the other hand, I think could stand a chance. She somehow manages to walk the fine line of being a good and effective senator while being able to capture that elusive "likeability" that we try to tell ourselves doesn't/shouldn't matter, but in fact is close to the only thing that matters. Amy Klo managed to get through probably the most devisive incident of 2018 - the Kavenaugh confirmation - with little to no criticism, even as she was criticizing him. She could most likely spend the rest of her life as senator of Minnesota, without any challenger even coming close. I don't know how she does it, but she is the only woman who I feel might be able to win the presidency. However, if she were to become a serious contender, I have no doubt she would be attacked from the left as too moderate and too bipartisan. And we're back where we started. Which is that I don't believe we will see a woman president in my lifetime. Sexism is just too baked into our national psyche. And too many people/institutions are just completely unwilling to examine it in any meaningful way.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:29 PM on January 2, 2019 [20 favorites]

The federal employees not getting paid include 54000 border patrol guards, 53000 ICE employees ...

Cripes, I had no idea they had that many agents. Let's see 2000 miles of Mexican border ... that works out to one agent for every 100 feet.

Oh, my god. The Wall. It's peeeple!
posted by JackFlash at 6:30 PM on January 2, 2019 [24 favorites]

In regards to This Time It's Different ...

I lost any hope the minute we relived Anita Hill.

And I cannot bear to watch it again, to see more women I admire get fed into the machine.
posted by Dashy at 6:37 PM on January 2, 2019 [15 favorites]

AP, Jill Colvin, Home alone no more: Trump’s chatty recovery from cabin fever

Home alone no more, President Donald Trump had a lot to share when he convened a rambling Cabinet meeting on Day 12 of the government shutdown.

The president, eager for company after a lonely stretch in a near-empty White House, zigzagged for more than 90 minutes from his demands for a southern border wall to his thoughts on Kanye West and his decision to pull troops out of Syria — all while a mock movie poster with his photograph and the words “SANCTIONS ARE COMING, NOVEMBER 4” sat, without explanation, in the middle of the grand Cabinet Room table.

NYT, Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Michael Tackett, Trump and Democrats Dig In After Talks to Reopen Government Go Nowhere

Mr. Trump tried creative ways to persuade the Democrats that they should support his wall. At one point, he said Ms. Pelosi should back it because she was “a good Catholic” and Vatican City is surrounded by a wall, according to one of the officials familiar with the discussion.

posted by zachlipton at 6:56 PM on January 2, 2019 [5 favorites]

Cripes, I had no idea they had that many agents

I've seen estimates that the single federal facility I work at employs approximately 10,000 federal employees and civilian contractors. That's just one facility.
posted by runcibleshaw at 6:58 PM on January 2, 2019 [2 favorites]

@davidfrum

It seems impossible, but it's true: President Trump just endorsed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Who's he working for?

After listening to the excerpt at the link and with the caveat that Trump sounds even more confused than usual: yes, he does seem to be endorsing not only the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, but Russian invasion of its nearish neighbours generally.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:58 PM on January 2, 2019 [26 favorites]

Oh, my god. The Wall. It's peeeple!

Red rover, red rover, let the caravan come over.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:04 PM on January 2, 2019 [10 favorites]

Interesting CNN article on the PAYGO fight. It mentions CUTGO (are these acryonyms?) which I had never heard of until now, which seems equally bad, if not worse.
posted by runcibleshaw at 7:28 PM on January 2, 2019

After listening to the excerpt at the link and with the caveat that Trump sounds even more confused than usual

Marcy Wheeler: I've been trying to avoid this all day, but...

When he speaks about a topic he is ignorant of, Trump generally repeats what the last person he spoke to told him.

So ... who told him this?
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:29 PM on January 2, 2019 [25 favorites]

You may already be running (Alexandra Petri, WaPo)

When you went to bed, you were a senator or a governor or a representative.

It had not touched you yet.

But now it is 2019.

You wake up in a cold sweat with only one thought: Somehow you must get to Iowa. You are not from Iowa. But it is calling to you. You think, “If I do not get my hands around an ear of corn, I will perish. If I do not clutch an Iowan infant in my arms, something horrible will happen. If I do not tell the people of Iowa what I think is wrong with America — and yet, what I think is right with America, too — then life will no longer be worth living."

You have been to Iowa maybe once or twice before. You thought nothing of it at the time. You saw John Delaney there, out standing in his field. He heard the call before anyone else. He dropped his plow and let his oxen run free and went straight to Iowa. You laughed at him.

But now you must get there. You must get there this year. You feel the stirring in your blood. There is something there for you, and you must go.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:35 PM on January 2, 2019 [30 favorites]

Alt-Right Watch: A new filing in Sines v. Kessler indicates that former Identity Evropa leader Nathan Damigo has filed for bankruptcy.

Deplatforming works.
posted by The Whelk at 7:46 PM on January 2, 2019 [69 favorites]

One Second Before Awakening: "However, I actually quite liked the actual substance of her "Accountable Capitalism Act". In particular, the requirement that corporations allow their workers to elect 40% of the membership of the board of directors."

Co-determination would be a *huge* move left. I don't know why this hasn't gotten more attention.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:07 PM on January 2, 2019 [42 favorites]

@mikedebonis (WaPo):

NEW: Republican @RepTomReed says he'll back Democratic rules tomorrow - first crossover in 18 years - and has been threatened with "consequences" from GOP leaders.

posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 PM on January 2, 2019 [45 favorites]

What is the legal basis for prisoner exchanges? Could Trump unilaterally trade Butina for this rando the Russians arrested?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:20 PM on January 2, 2019

NC-09: Various intrigues in North Carolina, we may end up with the House conducting it's own investigation at this rate.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:20 PM on January 2, 2019 [8 favorites]

> Republican @RepTomReed says he'll back Democratic rules tomorrow - first crossover in 18 years - and has been threatened with "consequences" from GOP leaders.

The odious Mr. Reed - our very own representative in NY23, who we threw a scare into this election cycle but didn't get close to defeating - is planning to cross over? Why, so he can burnish his "bipartisan" credentials? The next election is still 26 months away, so there's got to be a catch...
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:44 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

JackFlash: "Cripes, I had no idea they had that many agents. Let's see 2000 miles of Mexican border ... that works out to one agent for every 100 feet.

Oh, my god. The Wall. It's peeeple!"

Well you need 4 people to man a job 24x7x365 so the math would be every 400 feet and that would only be if the organization was completely flat and even janitors and receptionists were manning a section. And there is a also a border with Canada (it's "undefended" but they still have staff at border crossings and patrolers) plus all those international borders via airports.
posted by Mitheral at 9:02 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

I've harped on PAYGO here many times before and thus won't go into its merits again, but the idea that it is just a fig leaf that will be waived whenever necessary is misguided. Pelosi has spear-headed PAYGO since she began her speakership in 2007, and it is her initiative that is keeping it in the foreground now -- not just Hoyer, or the anti-Pelosi centrists, and certainly not popular demand. As with all politicians, while n-dimensional chess is always a tempting interpretation, in general when politicians propose and promise policies, they genuinely mean it, and Pelosi genuinely thinks PAYGO is important as well as good politics.

And it's not like it hasn't had significant, non-waived effects the previous go around. The Democrats unilaterally passed the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act shortly before ACA, and as Bivens puts it in his recent anti-PAYGO article, I think fairly uncontroversially:

it was commitments to adhere to PAYGO that led to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) having underpowered subsidies for purchasing insurance and, even more importantly, having a long lag in implementation; the law passed in January 2010 yet the exchanges with subsidies only were up and running by 2014. This implementation lag meant that the ACA’s benefits were not as sunk into Americans’ economic lives by the time a hostile Republican Congress and administration began launching attacks on it following the 2016 elections. It is a real testament to how much better the ACA made life for Americans that it has been stubbornly resistant to these attacks. But it would have been helpful to have a couple more years to have it running smoothly, but that didn’t happen largely because the ACA’s architects wanted to meet PAYGO rules over the 10-year budget window.

If the leadership was willing to hamstring ACA in order to meet the PAYGO rules, it will certainly be willing to do the same on farther-left policies that may come up in 2021. It may be that a stronger left will prevent such things, but that's not because the pro-PAYGO folks have changed their views: taking them at their word and act, they still believe in it.

Incidentally, the 2010 Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act is a law, as opposed to just a House rule, and it's what the leadership is referring to when they claim they are forced to adopt the PAYGO rule in response to "the law of the land". Its main enforcement mechanism is across-the-board cuts by the President, which I don't think has ever happened or is too likely to ever happen, but the underlying idea -- balanced budgets or everything gets cut -- was quite powerful among Democrats, many of whom are still in House leadership today. This exact logic was behind Obama's proposal of the "sequester" solution to the 2013 debt ceiling stand-off, which led to very real and very terrible budget cuts that are still affecting us today. I think the left in general thinks the sequester was a bad idea and not strategically necessary at the time, but regardless of the truth of that, it emerged out of a set of sincerely held beliefs among Democrats like Pelosi and Obama that the deficit was a major problem and auto-triggered cuts (via paygo or the sequester) were a good, serious way to deal with it.

TL;DR: they believe this stuff, sincerely think deficits are very bad, and PAYGO will likely have real effects both in 2021, and in the minds of many Democrats well before that.
posted by chortly at 9:04 PM on January 2, 2019 [16 favorites]

I can't bring myself to make a "leopards, faces" crack because this is kids getting rare forms of cancer. Just a reminder that this stuff matters, though:

Hiroko Tabuchi, NYT: A Trump County Confronts the Administration Amid a Rash of Child Cancers

After children fell ill with cancers, questions led Johnson County, Indiana, families to an industrial site that the government had ordered cleaned up more than two decades ago. Recent tests have identified a carcinogenic plume spreading underground, releasing vapors into homes.

Now, families in a county that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump are making demands of his administration that collide directly with one of his main agendas: the rolling back of health and environmental regulations.

... Declaring trichloroethylene “carcinogenic to humans by all routes of exposure,” the Obama administration had sought to restrict two of its riskiest uses, as a stain remover and as a degreaser, and had marked it for further review, potentially to ban the chemical altogether. It had also moved to strengthen cleanup rules for hundreds of sites nationwide believed to be contaminated.

But at the urging of industry groups, the Trump administration has stalled some of those moves. In 2017 it indefinitely postponed the proposed bans on risky uses [...] and scaled back a broad review of TCE and other chemicals so that it would exclude from its calculations possible exposure from groundwater and other forms of contamination — the problems present in Franklin.

To be clear, it's a speculative link between TCE exposure and weird cancers, not yet proven, but "both the national and Indiana average are fewer than 18 pediatric cancers per 100,000 children", compared to 21.7 in Johnson County, at the 80th percentile.

Meanwhile, Individual 1 continues to hold the EPA hostage to the beaded curtain or whatever.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:12 PM on January 2, 2019 [28 favorites]

I confess that I am losing track...is there a list of the active investigations into Trump and Trump-adjacent malfeasance/crimes and who is spearheading the investigation/prosecution?

I’m not talking about possible House investigations, but actual prosecutorial and federal lawsuit efforts.

The ones that spring to mind immediately are:

1. Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential elections
— Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller

2. Trump violation of election law by paying Stormy Daniels hush money
— US Attorney for the Southern District of New York (in Manhattan)

3. Trump Foundation fraud and self-dealing
— New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood

4. Trump International Hotel violations of the Emoluments Clause
— Attorneys General of Maryland and District of Columbia

5. Trump Organization tax law violation related to the Inauguration
— Attorney General of New York

These are the ones I can think of...are there others?
posted by darkstar at 9:46 PM on January 2, 2019 [7 favorites]

In NC-09, Harris is apparently trying to get the courts to certify the results, which is vaguely what the general statutes allow, but not really. (The Wake Superior Court is the court of appeals for decisions made by the State Board of Elections, but in this case, there's been no decision and there's now no State Board to make a decision.) I'd expect the court to punt and say that they don't have jurisdiction until the SBoE makes its call.
posted by holgate at 9:56 PM on January 2, 2019 [4 favorites]

These are the ones I can think of...are there others?

New York City and state tax authorities are looking into the fraudulent schemes used by Donald Trump and his siblings to evade taxes on hundreds of millions of dollars of inheritance as reported by the NY Times.
posted by peeedro at 9:58 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

TL;DR: they believe this stuff, sincerely think deficits are very bad, and PAYGO will likely have real effects both in 2021, and in the minds of many Democrats well before that.

All of these things are because this entire generation of Democrats have been traumatized by Republican bullshit economics to the point they are incapable of conceiving of a world where liberals just do liberal policy in the same manner as Republicans do tax cuts.

Deficits don't fucking matter. They don't. At all. Do things that help people. Don't pay for it. Republicans never do and the economy hasn't fallen yet. Be the Dick Cheney you want to see in the world, to save the world. Stop caring about the CBO score over 10 years and phasing in popular policy only when you're already voted out of office. Do it all, immediately, without paying for it. Let Republicans try and take it away. See how that worked out for them even with the miserable pittance that is Obamacare.

We need to replace the entire cohort of Democrats that use things like PAYGO as a shield against actually implementing progressive polices, from Pelosi on down if necessary, and fight back against this destructive learned helplessness until they're all gone or learn the lesson to get the fuck out of the way.

There's finally a new generation of Democrats that actually believe in helping people rather than finding every excuse not to, and they're slowly but surely going to take over the party by actually doing things in a bold and visible way. Pelosi and Hoyer's true feelings that Republican shibboleths must always be appeased can't be allowed to stop them.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:59 PM on January 2, 2019 [52 favorites]

Excellent, thank you peeedro!

That brings it to:

6. Trump personal tax evasion and fraud
— State of New York Department of Taxation & Finance
posted by darkstar at 10:07 PM on January 2, 2019

I think it's important to break the cycle in which the supposed Daddy Party spends all the money on a giant bender and expects the Mommy Party to pay the rent. But in reality, PayGo is meaningless between 2019 and 2021. Nothing of any value that might require non-PayGo spending will be passed before then. It does, however, stop by rule any more shitty tax cuts being sent back to the House from the Senate, and it allows 2020 Dem candidates to run on some kind of symbolic fiscal rectitude.

Anyway, we're now in the epicycle where a Republican president is happily giving the National Mall's rats a banquet of uncollected rubbish (there are lots of bin-rats on the National Mall) while siphoning funds to keep the Old Post Office tower open so that people get to ride the lift through his dirty shitty hotel. So I'll take a symbolic PayGo rule as long as we get to see some fucking tax returns.
posted by holgate at 10:22 PM on January 2, 2019 [16 favorites]

Want some HOPE? Look no further than this photo on Ocasio-Cortez's Instagram.

Along the same lines, voters unseated more than 50 incumbent Republican judges in Harris County Texas, here's a photo of 17 of the new judges serving in Houston's courts.
posted by peeedro at 10:30 PM on January 2, 2019 [27 favorites]

It does, however, stop any more shitty tax cuts being sent back to the House from the Senate, and it allows 2020 Dem candidates to run on some kind of symbolic fiscal rectitude.

So it allows House Democrats to avoid voting against tax cuts for the rich, while also allowing Democratic leaders to amplify the importance of deficits. It's hard to understand how something whose only purported effect is to amplify Republican values counts as a good thing.
posted by chortly at 10:35 PM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

PAYGO Round Infinity.... FIGHT!
posted by runcibleshaw at 10:37 PM on January 2, 2019 [1 favorite]

Regarding Harris County CNN: One Texas county just swore in 17 black female judges
posted by adept256 at 10:48 PM on January 2, 2019 [21 favorites]

The Atlantic claims that they update their list of Trump scandals as necessary.
posted by rdr at 10:49 PM on January 2, 2019 [3 favorites]

PAYGO Round Infinity.... FIGHT!

Well, the rules/PAYGO vote is being held in the next 24 hours, is a major source of contention within the newly-elected House majority, and with only a few contrary votes needed to derail it, could actually be affected by citizen-level action in the form of calling your Representative tomorrow. So discussing its statutory precedents and likely future effects does seem a bit more germane than the millionth commentary on Trump investigations over which we have no power whatsoever.
posted by chortly at 10:56 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

So it allows House Democrats to avoid voting against tax cuts for the rich, while also allowing Democratic leaders to amplify the importance of deficits. It's hard to understand how something whose only purported effect is to amplify Republican values counts as a good thing.

I don't see that being the best strategy. The one that came to mind was that Democrats should roll back every tax cut passed during Trump's administration. They made it so too much stuff fell apart, and it never wound up paying for itself, so tough luck richies.
posted by rhizome at 10:59 PM on January 2, 2019 [6 favorites]

These are the ones I can think of...are there others?

Wired put out a list of investigations/lawsuits against trump/trump foundation/trump family a month or so ago. It listed 17.
posted by sexyrobot at 12:41 AM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

In NC-09, Harris is apparently trying to get the courts to certify the results

Which might actually help the Democrats. They have a rock-solid reason (supported by Republicans, including Harris) to not seat him due to fraud. If the Board of Elections tosses it by proper procedures, there might be a new election where a different Republican runs successfully.

If Harris manages a bogus court-imposed certification of obviously fraudulent results, they have no choice but to just accept the Democratic contender (Dan McCready).
posted by msalt at 1:09 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

@davidfrum
It seems impossible, but it's true: President Trump just endorsed the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Who's he working for?

Is it possible to get sources for things from pundits who don't have the blood of millions of Iraqis on their hands?

Does Frum really deserve to be considered part of polite society and credible on foreign or domestic policy?

For example: Isn't it odd how a neocon like David Frum just happened to not mention which country armed and trained the Mujahideen in Afghanistan?
posted by Ouverture at 2:10 AM on January 3, 2019 [17 favorites]

The 17 investigations Trump/Russia Wired
posted by Harry Caul at 2:40 AM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

Fortune published a roundup of Trump lawsuits last month that included a couple I’d forgotten about, such as the civil RICO suit against the Trump family & org over fraudulent endorsements and PEN America’s First Amendment case against Trump over his threats to Jeff Bezos, Amazon, CNN, etc.

It’s as though attracting lawsuits is Trump’s one true talent.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:51 AM on January 3, 2019 [8 favorites]

And there is a also a border with Canada (it's "undefended" but they still have staff at border crossings and patrolers) plus all those international borders via airports.

Which is not to say that a good number of those people's time and effort couldn't better be spent working for, say, HUD or the VA or Medicaid than quote defending the border unquote. But I do think we need to push back a little on "gosh there's a lot of people working for that agency," because it's one of the rhetorical tools that's used to argue for e.g. privatizing the Post Office.

Your average yoyo can't even tell you the population of the US and has no idea how many people work for the government or what they do, they just hear $bignum and think "why that's more than live in $generictown!"
posted by aspersioncast at 5:06 AM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

I think there is actually a deadline for the Republicans, and that's sometime in early February when tax refunds are supposed to start going out. About a quarter of Americans who file tax returns do it in the first couple of weeks of tax season, and those people are typically banking on getting a refund, which they won't get if the government is shut down. I don't think Trump or his inner circle (or, to be honest, a lot of the DC press corps) are particularly attuned to this, because they're not the people holding out until February before they can make car repairs or replace their busted washing machine, but a whole lot of Americans are going to get hit hard in about a month if the government is still shut down.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:37 AM on January 3, 2019 [62 favorites]

Was just coming here to post that. People with money file later, because it takes time to find all the loopholes, and they’re not doing it themselves anyway.

So. Considering how party identification breaks down along class lines...
posted by schadenfrau at 5:42 AM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

I believe it was Tommy Douglas - who brought universal healthcare to Canada - who pointed out that debt is bad for socialists because it means putting the fate of your social programs in the hands of your bankers.

Tommy Douglas came from the Canadian Prairies and implemented the first Single Payer program in a province (Saskatchewan) not the nation. A province in Canada does not have the power to print money and has a different fiscal reality than the federal government which can.
posted by srboisvert at 5:47 AM on January 3, 2019 [9 favorites]

Hey, it's time for another round of "Senile, Stupid, or Both???"!

Trump Mocks Indian PM for Library in Afghanistan

Trump brought up India's aid during a rambling press appearance at a Cabinet meeting as he defended his push for the United States to invest less overseas.
While stating that he got along with Modi, Trump said the Indian leader was "constantly telling me he built a library in Afghanistan."
"You know what that is? That's like five hours of what we spend," Trump said.
"And we're supposed to say, 'Oh, thank you for the library.' I don't know who's using it in Afghanistan," Trump said.
It was unclear to which project Trump was referring, but India has committed $3 billion in assistance to Afghanistan since U.S.-led forces toppled the extremist Taliban regime after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

*BZZZ* Sorry, that was our Trick Question of the Day - of course the correct answer is "racist"! We would also have accepted "delusional", since, with that guy, who knows?
posted by PontifexPrimus at 6:06 AM on January 3, 2019 [27 favorites]

Starting her term perfectly...

@SavannahGuthrie
NEWS: Pelosi says it is possible to indict the president while still in office. Breaking on @TODAYshow
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 6:25 AM on January 3, 2019 [77 favorites]

Daniel Dale: "Indian officials tell multiple outlets they are confused by Trump claiming Modi constantly seeks praise for India building “a library” in Afghanistan, since India has funded lots of major projects there but no major library."
https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-rejects-donald-trumps-jibe-at-pm-modi-on-afghanistan/articleshow/67364308.cms
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:27 AM on January 3, 2019 [22 favorites]

Starting her term perfectly...

@SavannahGuthrie
NEWS: Pelosi says it is possible to indict the president while still in office. Breaking on @TODAYshow

The thrill that gave me was maybe not entirely appropriate while waiting in line at the pharmacy
posted by schadenfrau at 6:34 AM on January 3, 2019 [44 favorites]

Is there an "ally" left for dumbkopf to insult with a lie or ignorance?
posted by infini at 6:36 AM on January 3, 2019

The Afghans, predictably, dispute Trump's revisionist history of the Soviet invasion, ‘We gave more than enough sacrifices’: Afghans blast Trump’s praise of the Soviet invasion (WaPo).
posted by peeedro at 6:39 AM on January 3, 2019 [14 favorites]

Well of course he would disparage libraries - even non-existent ones - because they're free to use and have books in them
posted by Myeral at 6:39 AM on January 3, 2019 [34 favorites]

What do you think the other democratic candidates are going to aim for? Is one of them a Maoist and I fucking missed it somehow?

I wish, can you imagine the debates? But Bernie Sanders is definitely to the left of Warren though, and while he's a bit of a reformist himself, he still has an explicitly anti-capitalist orientation. I believe he would be more likely to consistently push for "non-reformist reforms" that gradually shift the balance of power away from the bourgeoisie. Furthermore, the fact that he vocally identifies as a democratic socialist has done wonders for mainstreaming socialist ideology in the US. His 2016 campaign single-handedly revived and popularized the previously moribund DSA. When we speak of economic justice and opposition to capitalism, at this moment Sanders is, while not perfect, and really not THAT far left (ask Murray Bookchin), leagues ahead of all other likely candidates.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 6:46 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ha! Awesome. New Wisconsin governor Tony Evers isn't going to sue to invalidate the laws Rs passed in the lame duck to reduce his power. He's going to ignore them and make Rs sue him to try and get them enforced.
posted by chris24 at 6:56 AM on January 3, 2019 [135 favorites]

New Wisconsin governor Tony Evers isn't going to sue to invalidate the laws Rs passed in the lame duck to reduce his power. He's going to ignore them and make Rs sue him to try and get them enforced.

At least I wasn’t in public this time.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:00 AM on January 3, 2019 [60 favorites]

New Wisconsin governor Tony Evers isn't going to sue to invalidate the laws Rs passed in the lame duck to reduce his power. He's going to ignore them and make Rs sue him to try and get them enforced.

I did not expect this kind of chutzpah from the mild mannered, mostly uninspiring schoolteacher I voted for this year (wait, last year) and I’m pleasantly surprised.
posted by dis_integration at 7:07 AM on January 3, 2019 [50 favorites]

Bernie alumni seek meeting to address ‘sexual violence’ on ’16 campaign (Alex Thompson, Politico)

More than two dozen women and men who worked on Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign are seeking a meeting with the senator and his top political advisers to “discuss the issue of sexual violence and harassment on the 2016 campaign, for the purpose of planning to mitigate the issue in the upcoming presidential cycle,” according to a copy of letter obtained by POLITICO.

“In recent weeks there has been an ongoing conversation on social media, in texts, and in person, about the untenable and dangerous dynamic that developed during our campaign,” they wrote.
...
The signees are looking to change what they call a pervasive culture of toxic masculinity in the campaign world.

Sanders apologizes to women who said they were harassed during his 2016 campaign (Politico Staff)

Sen. Bernie Sanders apologized late Wednesday to female staffers who have said they endured sexual harassment and gender disparity while working on his 2016 presidential campaign, while also saying he was previously unaware of such allegations.

“I certainly apologize to any woman who felt that she was not treated appropriately, and of course if I run, we will do better next time,” Sanders said in an interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:08 AM on January 3, 2019 [12 favorites]

The "I'm sorry you feel that way" apology.
posted by Dashy at 7:14 AM on January 3, 2019 [68 favorites]

'I was too busy to be bothered about sexual harassment' is not a great response for a presidential candidate.

On Wednesday evening, Cooper asked Sanders if he had been unaware of the allegations. "Yes, I was little bit busy running around the country trying to make the case,” Sanders responded.

posted by chris24 at 7:14 AM on January 3, 2019 [38 favorites]

The Trump Slump

Dead link, BUT it reminds me that the DJIA close on Trump's inaugural day was 19,827.25, so that and the YTD numbers are all I pay attention to. 2018 performance was about -5%...
posted by mikelieman at 7:16 AM on January 3, 2019

The Trump Slump
---
Dead link.

Sorry about that. Here's a link to the cover article and the cover is down the page a bit.
posted by chris24 at 7:18 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

Apple report starts 'flash crash' in DOW, -550 and counting.
posted by Harry Caul at 7:35 AM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

Question: I'm listening to 1-A right now, and they're hearing from government employees about the shutdown. They're from a wide range of departments and services. This made me wonder...Is the Mueller investigation affected by the shutdown? Maybe Mueller is still being paid, but what of all the staff and others working on the probe? Is the investigation essentially being halted by the shutdown?
posted by Thorzdad at 7:39 AM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

@daveweigel:

Just talked to @RepJayapal about PAYGO, asked if it would indeed prevent future progressives from passing major legislation. "The critical thing is, do we have a commitment to waive PayGo on critical bills? I think we do."

That's progressive Pramila Jayapal [WA-07], if you didn't recognize the handle.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:40 AM on January 3, 2019 [12 favorites]

Previous shutdowns had his staff deemed essential and not affected. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/mueller-probe-won-t-shut-down-even-if-much-of-government-does-jckttopo from Jan 18, 2018.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:41 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

CNN says Mueller not affected.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:43 AM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

But Bernie Sanders is definitely to the left of Warren though, and while he's a bit of a reformist himself, he still has an explicitly anti-capitalist orientation.

Just going by their voting records as judged by DW-Nominate, the economic spectrum of lefty senators looks like:

Warren
Harris
Booker
Baldwin
Sanders
Markey
Hirono
Merkley
...everyone else

For whatever reason, Sanders' voting record is not to the economic left of Warren's. It's not even to the left of purple-stater Tammy Baldwin (who, to be clear, is great, despite previously getting a little shade on this site for saying something nice about the Packers (!) ).
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:47 AM on January 3, 2019 [39 favorites]

'I was too busy to be bothered about sexual harassment' is not a great response for a presidential candidate.

It wouldn’t be an acceptable response from someone running for 8th grade president
posted by schadenfrau at 7:50 AM on January 3, 2019 [23 favorites]

I think it's fair to say that DW-NOMINATE is not a perfect tool. On the other hand, "leftism" isn't a really precisely measurable variable.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:51 AM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

I think it's fair to say that DW-NOMINATE is not a perfect tool. On the other hand, "leftism" isn't a really precisely measurable variable.

Definitely; I probably look there a bit much because that's where the light is. If someone wants to provide specifics that show Sanders' voting record or proposed bills to be "definitely" to the left of Warren, I am all ears.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:58 AM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

It will be interesting to see who criticizes whom - I hope that people on the left of the party/left in general can either criticize Warren over her foolish comments about Native ancestry and criticize Sanders over the sexual harassment or give them both a pass, but it seems likely that many people will reserve their serious criticism for the one they like less.

Let there be equal lawlessness or equal law, as the fellow said.
posted by Frowner at 7:58 AM on January 3, 2019 [12 favorites]

I'm taking my #TeamClaire sign out of the window today ☹
posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:07 AM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

Venture capitalist Fred Wilson: What Is Going To Happen In 2019 – AVC

I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President.

Followed by his assessment of what that (and Brexit, etc.) means for the economy.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:27 AM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

I know there is going to be stuff coming up about the primaries next year that calls back to the 2016 campaigns, but we cannot technologically or emotionally support rehashing every goddamn argument about Warren or Bernie that we have already have many times. Please keep those topics very specifically focused on current events and we'll be providing more guidance on how to handle the recurring stuff soon.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 8:29 AM on January 3, 2019 [51 favorites]

The good news is that whoever wins the Democratic primary in 2020, will have my support, 100%.
posted by jetsetsc at 8:31 AM on January 3, 2019 [48 favorites]

Oh no, the evangelical "Christians" that support an adulterer and charity fraudster might look like hypocrites!

Seriously, how does he still think they care?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:37 AM on January 3, 2019 [46 favorites]

What's really interesting, then, is that since Congress passed the tax changes towards the end of 2017, the IRS was delayed in getting new withholding tables out for 2018. This meant that I, along with a lot of other Americans, didn't bother updating our paycheck withholding. But I've done the math and I expect to owe some money with my 2018 return. The main reason this happened is because I'm a tithing Christian [that is, I give 10% of my income to my church] and in the last few years I started making enough that I could itemize and deduct those charitable contributions. With the new tax laws I won't be itemizing anymore, and the new standard deduction doesn't quite catch up to what I was itemizing.

Guess which party tends to have a lot of supporters who (claim to) also give away 10% of their income? How many of them will owe money in the spring due to tax changes? How many of them will see that, right or wrong, as a tax increase?

posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 8:40 AM on January 3, 2019 [11 favorites]

Phelps County, MO getting top billing in the P-D today hoping Josh Hawley isn't a face eating leopard.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:44 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

Ronald Brownstein (Atlantic)
In 09, Dems from rural seats were > 1/3 of their House caucus. Now it's <1/6. In 09, 47 Dems held seats that voted for McCain & Bush 04. Now, just 14 hold seats that backed Trump & Romney. The 09 majority relied on seats trending away from Ds; this one on seats moving toward them
Atlantic: Why the New Democratic Majority Could Work Better Than the Last

Dave Weigel (WaPo)
Retweeted Ronald Brownstein
This is big and underrated. There has never -- never! -- been a House Democratic majority without a powerful bloc of southern conservatives. And now there is.
posted by chris24 at 8:52 AM on January 3, 2019 [70 favorites]

I was joking with a friend about the possibility of Trump seeking asylum to escape his crimes, and they sent me these lines from Shakespeare's Sir Thomas More:

What country, by the nature of your error,
Should give you harbour? Go you to France or Flanders,
To any German province, to Spain or Portugal,
Nay, any where that not adheres to England,
Why, you must needs be strangers. Would you be pleased
To find a nation of such barbarous temper,
That, breaking out in hideous violence,
Would not afford you an abode on earth,
Whet their detested knives against your throats,
Spurn you like dogs, and like as if that God
Owed not nor made not you, not that the claimants
Were not all appropriate to your comforts,
But charter'd unto them? What would you think
To be used thus? This is the stranger's case;
And this is your mountainish inhumanity.

And an even more ancient quote, a reminder for evangelicals:

When a foreigner resides with you in your land, you must not oppress him. 34You must treat the foreigner living among you as native-born and love him as yourself, for you were foreigners in the land of Egypt. LEV 19:33
posted by adept256 at 8:52 AM on January 3, 2019 [26 favorites]

I often like to ask my AlwaysTrump friends, “What can the next Democratic president do that you won’t look like a hypocrite for criticizing?” - Jonah Goldberg, no friend of Democrats but a consistent critic of Trump, outlines how much damage Republicans are doing to themselves in the long term with their support of Trump.

I'm sorry to inform Mr. Goldberg that the concept of hypocrisy is dead alongside shame, guilt, dishonor, and embarrassment when it comes to the political sphere. I would not count on their application having any effect on Republicans.
posted by nubs at 8:54 AM on January 3, 2019 [15 favorites]

Meanwhile 80 homes in Wolfe City, Texas (pop:1,442) got KKK flyers delivered to their doorsteps.

On the one hand, ugh, on the other hand, that's a pretty tiny little town and is probably just a couple of dumbasses and the local folks are Not Happy with them.
posted by emjaybee at 8:55 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

[BLUE MEAT CLICKBAIT HEADLINE from Vox]
The 10 new Democratic House committee chairs who are about to make Trump’s life hell
posted by growabrain at 8:58 AM on January 3, 2019 [8 favorites]

Update from the NYT on the Trump supporter the Kremlin arrested: Paul Whelan, American Accused of Spying, Is Said to Be Charged in Russia

Mr. Whelan, 48, the head of global security for the Michigan auto parts maker BorgWarner and a Marine Corps veteran, was arrested last Friday and is being held in solitary confinement in Moscow’s notorious Lefortovo Prison. Russia’s domestic security agency, the F.S.B., issued a brief statement on Monday saying that Mr. Whelan had been caught in “an act of espionage” but provided no other details.[…]

Rosbalt, a Russian news agency close to the security services, quoted an unidentified intelligence source on Wednesday as saying that Mr. Whelan had been apprehended during a meeting with a Russian citizen in his room at the Metropol Hotel in Moscow. He is accused of trying to recruit this person to obtain classified information about staff members at various Russian agencies, the account said.

Mr. Whelan was arrested five minutes after receiving a USB stick containing a list of all the employees at a classified security agency, the report said.

And just to over-emphasize Putin's implicit play to trade Whelan for Maria Butina:

Mr. Whelan’s lawyer said that he would welcome an exchange, but that it would take time. The shortest possible timetable for the legal case would be six months to a year, he said, after which the issue of an exchange might be broached. Such a deal would require a pardon from President Vladimir V. Putin.

“This is a long process,” Mr. Zherebenkov said. “I myself hope that we can rescue and bring home one Russian soul.”

Meanwhile, in US-Chinese relations, CNBC reports: US Issues New Warning Over China Travel, Urging 'Increased Caution'

• The U.S. State Department on Thursday issued an increased travel warning about China, urging Americans to "exercise increased caution" in the country "due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws as well as special restrictions on dual U.S.-Chinese nationals."
• The State Department warning noted that Chinese authorities have "exit bans" to prevent U.S. citizens from leaving China, sometimes "for years."
• And the department said those bans are used "coercively" to compel Americans to participate in Chinese government investigations, "lure" people back to China from abroad, and to help Chinese authorities resolve civil disputes "in favor of Chinese parties."

posted by Doktor Zed at 9:05 AM on January 3, 2019 [11 favorites]

I'm a Canadian, so I am seeing all of this from a distance, but I am worried that the U.S. government shutdown could last a very long time.

The POTUS doesn't particularly care if federal workers are suffering - he doesn't care about anyone other than himself. And his standard negotiating technique - historically - is to push and push until the person at the other side of the table suffers.

And the Democrats can't give in, or the President will keep doing this again and again. It's like negotiating with a kidnapper - you get your government back again when you meet my ransom demand.

Am I being overly pessimistic, or is this an accurate description of the current situation?
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 9:19 AM on January 3, 2019 [19 favorites]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:

Sí, se puede.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:21 AM on January 3, 2019 [40 favorites]

That's a little pessimistic, but not much; the thing is, there is an entire congress that's somewhat intelligent and not crazy. They have the power to say to the chief, "hey! Look over there!" and then quietly do whatever needs to be done to keep things running. But they are not doing that. Yet. Many of them don't know how, since they (admittedly) only know how to oppose the black guy, and nothing else. I hope they learn quickly.
posted by Melismata at 9:22 AM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

No, I think you're right. But the wildcard is that the President can be manipulated, and it may be possible to manipulate him into thinking that a capitulation is really a win. Also, it's possible that members of his party will finally turn on him and trade him in for President Pence, although I wouldn't bet on it.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:24 AM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

He operates from fear. Right now he fears the narcissistic injury of losing a dominance game. If we make him fear the alternative more, his addled, disordered brain will retcon reality however it needs to so he can cast himself as strong or right or better than while caving on the shutdown.

He’s really not that complicated.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:25 AM on January 3, 2019 [37 favorites]

NYT, Miriam Jordan, Undocumented Worker Says Trump Resort Shielded Her From Secret Service

In the latest revelation, Emma Torres, an undocumented immigrant from Ecuador who prepared food at the club, said that members of the kitchen staff were asked in 2016, as Donald J. Trump was in the midst of his campaign for the White House, to write their names, addresses and other details, including their Social Security numbers, on a list of employees that would be submitted to the Secret Service for clearance.

The golf club has been a favorite venue for vacation and business meetings for Mr. Trump.

“When I learned this is for the Secret Service to see the records of everyone because they are giving protection to Mr. Trump, I rushed to human resources,” Ms. Torres said in an interview. “I thought, God, what will I do?” Ms. Torres said she had used a fake Social Security number when she applied for her job.

She said that she told a human resources employee, whose name she does not know, that she did not have legal status. She said that the woman replied, “‘It’s O.K. No problem.’ She scratched me off the list.”

The woman then asked Ms. Torres for names of other kitchen workers who might be undocumented, which Ms. Torres said she provided.

According to the article, Ms. Torres' lawyer has already met with investigators from the NJ AG's office and the FBI.
posted by zachlipton at 9:28 AM on January 3, 2019 [53 favorites]

Thank you, zachlipton! That brings the list of official prosecutorial investigations into Trump and his ilk to include:

7. Trump National Golf Club immigration law violations
— New Jersey Attorney General and FBI
posted by darkstar at 9:42 AM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

1987
Republican women in Congress: 11
Democratic women in Congress: 12

2019
Republican women in Congress: 13
Democratic women in Congress: 103
posted by Chrysostom at 9:45 AM on January 3, 2019 [162 favorites]

Ah Harry Caul, I just spotted your link above. Thank you!

That article breaks Mueller’s work into seven (!) different lines of investigation.
posted by darkstar at 9:47 AM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

But the wildcard is that the President can be manipulated, and it may be possible to manipulate him into thinking that a capitulation is really a win.

Build that swamp! Build that swamp! Lobbyists, lobbyists everywhere, telling Trump what to think (Mark Sumner, Daily Kos)

... Donald Trump is the most easily lobbied man on the planet. His tendency to believe the last person who spoke with him is legendary—particularly if that person throws in a compliment. Or an insult. It doesn’t have to be Vladimir Putin saying very nice things. Trump would easily surrender every drop of water in the West for a few suggestions that he was having a good-hair day.

Leaving trained, professional lobbyists near Donald Trump is like challenging professional boxers with one of those inflatable clowns. It’s just too easy.

In the case of [David Bernhardt, incoming Secretary of the Interior and former oil lobbyist], the plan he’s now pushing to steal more water from rivers and push it to big agriculture is identical to the plan he created while lobbying. Which is another reason that it’s inaccurate to say that Trump is filling his cabinet with “former” lobbyists. There’s nothing former about them. Whether it’s the EPA, HHS, or Interior, or the defense industry executive now running the Defense Department, they’re all free to just keep on lobbying with the same plans they had before stepping into the White House. It’s just that now they have an audience of one—and he goes down with just the slightest tap.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:47 AM on January 3, 2019 [23 favorites]

tallmiddleagedgeek, at least from the D perspective you are correct. Remember there was already a deal in place the week before Xmas that McConnell brought to the floor and the Senate passed unanimously, but Trump backed out at the last second after the right wing troll factory started screaming. If the Ds caved, I strongly suspect Coulter and Limbaugh and Hannity and Trump would just move the goalposts again, saying something like "Last year you were willing to trade $25B for DACA, and that's actually what the wall is gonna cost, so that's the new demand. I won't reopen the government for anything less."
posted by johnny jenga at 9:50 AM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

If I were a Republican I'd be embarrassed to be a member of a political party where people like Jonah Goldberg are now, comparatively speaking, the voices of reason, but then again anyone who has the capacity to be embarrassed by that is probably not a Republican anyway.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:51 AM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

@mkraju:

Elijah Cummings told me his first priority to investigate as chairman will be over the citizenship question in the census.

He said Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross will be called to the committee.

“He has to answer for something that he said that I don’t think was accurate.”

posted by Chrysostom at 9:52 AM on January 3, 2019 [57 favorites]

Meanwhile, in US-Chinese relations, CNBC reports: US Issues New Warning Over China Travel, Urging 'Increased Caution'

In this, the State Department has a point:
---
- Why China’s exit ban is worrying for travellers (Globe and Mail) - numerous cases have been reported in China whereby North Americans were forbidden to leave China because a competitor brought a lawsuit on unfounded grounds against the company they own or are a shareholder of in order to obtain a business concession or trade secret...In the event your company has debts of any amount in China or it fails to fully pay or compensate its past or present employees...prevent the legal representative, directors and senior management from leaving China until the matter has been redressed.

- China defends exit ban on US children of alleged fraudster (Irish Times) - China has defended its decision to bar the children of a fugitive businessman and their mother, all three of them US citizens, from leaving the country, saying the trio are suspected of having committed “economic crimes”... Victor and Cynthia Liu, children of Liu Changming, a former bank executive who is wanted in connection with a €1.24 billion fraud case, and their mother, Sandra Han, have been detained since June and the US state department is in contact with the children... They were picked up while visiting their grandfather on the tropical island of Hainan. According to the New York Times, the children have severed their relationship with their father since 2012.

- China steps up and widens use of exit bans on foreigners (Australian Financial Review) - Lawyers and diplomats say there has been an increase in China's use of the measure, which allows immigration officials to stop someone from leaving the country even if they are not suspected of a crime. In many cases, they are kept in the country because they are related to someone involved in a business or legal dispute. Australian citizens are among those who have been refused permission to leave China, in some cases for years at a time.
---
This is a known thing and it's getting more frequent. I leave it to people more eloquent and better-informed than me to explain the connection between gutting the diplomatic corps and Americans being used as pawns in international disputes.
posted by saysthis at 9:53 AM on January 3, 2019 [27 favorites]

NC-09: Republican Mark Harris' odds of making it into Congress continue to drop from slim toward none after incoming Democratic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer announced the new Democratic House majority will refuse to seat him when Congress reconvenes on Thursday.

Eureka! I just realized how Democrats can fight back against gerrymandering and voter suppression. Refuse to seat anyone from a district that has been unfairly gerrymandered to favor a Republican or anyone from a state that has used voter suppression tactics or failed to safeguard electoral integrity. Republican seats would dwindle and force the states to clean up their act if they want representation in the House. Don't need the Senate for any of this.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:02 AM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

Warren: Corruption Makes Donald Trump 'An Accelerant' Of Inequality | The Rachel Maddow Show | MSNBC - YouTube

Pelosi's vote is happening now. C-SPAN has it.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:04 AM on January 3, 2019 [15 favorites]

2019
Republican women in Congress: 13
Democratic women in Congress: 103

Congress in 2019 will be the least white and least male of all time, and it's worth noting that's overwhelmingly due to new Democrats.
posted by adept256 at 10:05 AM on January 3, 2019 [32 favorites]

Martin O'Malley: I will not be running for president in 2020, but I hope Beto O’Rourke does. And this is why.
posted by peeedro at 10:06 AM on January 3, 2019 [10 favorites]

Justice Dept. investigating whether Zinke lied to inspector general (WaPo):

The Justice Department’s public integrity section is examining whether newly departed Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke lied to his agency’s inspector general investigators, according to three people familiar with the matter, a potential criminal violation that would exacerbate Zinke’s legal woes.

Zinke, who left the Trump administration Wednesday, was facing two inspector general inquiries tied to his real estate dealings in his home state of Montana and his involvement in reviewing a proposed casino project by Native American tribes in Connecticut. In the course of that work, inspector general investigators came to believe Zinke had lied to them, and they referred the matter to the Justice Department to consider whether any laws were violated, the people familiar with the matter said.

posted by peeedro at 10:10 AM on January 3, 2019 [17 favorites]

@rachaelmbade:
Sitting above the chamber, you see the stark contrast in color btw the GOP & Dem side: the Rs are all in dark suits. Almost all white men. The Dem side is speckled with pinks and purples and greens being worn by the historic # of women. Also very ethnically diverse.
posted by Atom Eyes at 10:20 AM on January 3, 2019 [40 favorites]

There's no photo! Is it a coincidence that purple and green were colours worn by the original suffragettes?
posted by adept256 at 10:25 AM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

Phelps County, MO getting top billing in the P-D today hoping Josh Hawley isn't a face eating leopard.

posted by fluttering hellfire at 8:44 AM on January 3 [1 favorite +] [!]

Wow. That article documented so many internal contradictions in the belief systems of those "rural conservatives" they interviewed. Prime example: contempt for the student who said they planned on "drawing a check every month, just like my mama does," while bemoaning that they know people that can't get a job. And then this stunningly ignorant behavior:

Bill Clinton was the last Democrat whom Doug Hamann, 59, supported in a national election. He did it to punish President George Bush.

And then this erroneous belief: "'The rural people have a different culture than folks who live in the city — different values,' said Melinda, 53. 'Family is important to us.'" It's no wonder they can't dig themselves out of their problems when they can't even see them clearly.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:33 AM on January 3, 2019 [11 favorites]

There's no photo! Is it a coincidence that purple and green were colours worn by the original suffragettes?

I thought the suffragettes mostly wore white?
posted by Chrysostom at 10:47 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

According to C-SPAN's count Pelosi won with 219 votes (Mccarthy got 192)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:49 AM on January 3, 2019 [12 favorites]

@MEPFuller:

And that's it, folks. Nancy Pelosi is elected Speaker.
Pelosi: 230
McCarthy: 194
Jordan: 5
Bustos: 4
Present: 3
Abrams: 1
Fudge: 1
Biden: 1
Duckworth: 1
Lewis: 1
Kennedy: 1
Massie: 1

Looks like 15 Democrats who didn't vote for Pelosi (here's a list)

@davidmackau [video]: Maxine Waters was asked who she was voting for and responded, "Reclaiming my time... Nancy Pelosi"

Van Drew (D-NJ) just voted simply "no," which caused a bit of confusion as you're supposed to vote for the person who you want to be Speaker, not your favorite boolean. His vote has been changed to present.

@aseitzwald: Seth Moulton quietly votes for Nancy Pelosi after helping lead opposition to her.
posted by zachlipton at 10:49 AM on January 3, 2019 [58 favorites]

Mental Wimp: "Refuse to seat anyone from a district that has been unfairly gerrymandered to favor a Republican or anyone from a state that has used voter suppression tactics or failed to safeguard electoral integrity."

Powell v. McCormack found that duly elected members cannot be barred from taking their seats unless they don't meet the Constitutional requirements, such as age. It's the electing state that certifies if someone is duly elected, so you'd have to bar them at that level.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:51 AM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

As Anne Lamott once put it: every single thing Trump touches turns to shit.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:53 AM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

It's the electing state that certifies if someone is duly elected, so you'd have to bar them at that level.

posted by Chrysostom at 10:51 AM on January 3 [1 favorite +] [!]

Thanks for spoiling my day, Chrysostom. To come back from the dead to say this, you must think I was abusing my authority, but I was misled by the quote I cited, which implied that the House could just refuse to seat anyone they didn't think was duly elected. Ashes, all my dreams are ashes.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:56 AM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

I thought the suffragette colors stood for
Green = Give
White = Women
Violet = [the] Vote
posted by orrnyereg at 11:07 AM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

Powell v. McCormack found that duly elected members cannot be barred from taking their seats unless they don't meet the Constitutional requirements, such as age. It's the electing state that certifies if someone is duly elected, so you'd have to bar them at that level.

Nitpick:

Each chamber is the judge of its own elections, so it's technically possible for the House to decide, in spite of the facts, that all the Democrats from those races won their elections or (IIRC) that the election was uncertain enough to leave the seat vacant until a special election. This is in the same way that the new Democratic majority could, technically, just decide that every opposed race was won by the Democrat in spite of the facts. The House starting to decide disputed elections more or less honestly is part of Polsby's famous article on institutionalization of the House.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:29 AM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

Speaker Pelosi and her gavel
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 AM on January 3, 2019 [31 favorites]

As of (today), DOD will be run by a former senior Boeing executive.
EPA is run by a former coal lobbyist.
HHS is run by a former pharmaceutical lobbyist.
And Interior will be run by a former oil-industry lobbyist.
Welcome to 2019.
posted by growabrain at 11:41 AM on January 3, 2019 [45 favorites]

Reading the comment from growabrain, I was thinking about a show I saw last night which said that Cairo will run out of water by 2025. Which is 6 years away
posted by Myeral at 11:45 AM on January 3, 2019 [7 favorites]

> Cairo will run out of water by 2025

Cape Town is already facing a slow-motion water crisis - ironically made more extreme because of how efficient they already are, so there's minimal room for further water conservation efforts.
posted by RedOrGreen at 11:52 AM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

mumimor: “I want to thank my members,” Trump said, speaking to the crowd and spotting the faces he knew. “I don’t really care too much about their guests, because the ones I really care about are the members. I don’t give a shit about their guests. I just love my members.”

Because it's his members who are paying dues, which in turn make him richer. Mar-a-Lago membership fee doubles to $200,000 (Robert Frank for CNBC, 25 Jan 2017), and despite that high ticket price, Membership Applications at Mar-a-Lago Soar After Trump Becomes President (Daniel Politi for Slate, Feb. 18, 2017)

TIL: Membership at the Mar-a-Lago Club required a $200,000 initiation fee up until 2012 when it was lowered to $100,000. Sources close to the resort indicated the cut was in response to reduced demand following the Bernie Madoff scandal which affected many affluent Palm Beach residents. Only thanks to his presidency was Trump able to re-up that cost. There is a membership cap of 500 people, but overnight guests pay up to $2,000 a night. According to financial disclosure forms filed by Donald Trump, the Mar-a-Lago Club realized $29.7 million in gross revenues in the period June 2015 to May 2016.

Also, it was built from 1924 to 1927 by cereal-company heiress and socialite Marjorie Merriweather Post, who, at the time of her death in 1973, bequeathed the property to the National Park Service, hoping it could be used for state visits or as a Winter White House. But because the costs of maintaining the property exceeded the funds provided by Post, and it was difficult to secure the facility (as it is located in the flight path of Palm Beach Airport), the property was returned to the Post Foundation by an Act of Congress in 1981. In 1985, Mar-a-Lago was purchased by Donald Trump, and here we are, with Mar-A-Lago serving as as the unofficial "weekend White House." (via Wikipedia)

Emphasis mine, because now Flight paths change dramatically when Donald Trump is in Palm Beach | Graphic (Irfan Uraizee and Yiran Zhu for South Florida Sun-Sentinel, March 24, 2017).
posted by filthy light thief at 11:55 AM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

This hardly matters in the grand scheme of things, but if you need a little bit of schadenfreude today, some twitter troll uploaded a video of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dancing and having fun with her friends in college as if it was going to own her, and it's getting ratioed like CRAZY.
posted by bluecore at 12:13 PM on January 3, 2019 [63 favorites]

In 1985, Mar-a-Lago was purchased by Donald Trump, and here we are, with Mar-A-Lago serving as as the unofficial "weekend White House."

Prior to the 2016 election I remarked in a megathread that whenever I saw the name "Mar-A-Lago" my brain replaced it with "Snake Oil Island" and that once he lost, we'd never have to hear about the place again. And now here we are, still hearing about it and how he makes gross amounts of money on it while using it to throw his weight around and show how powerful he thinks he is. Of all of his disgusting practices, this one is at the top of the list of those that don't involve human rights violations or otherwise directly screw with peoples' lives.
posted by Servo5678 at 12:15 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

This made me wonder...Is the Mueller investigation affected by the shutdown?

Maybe not, but I was also wondering what else the shutdown buys Trump, besides the obvious. Any deadlines he's supposed to meet measured in working days which aren't being tolled while there is no working?
posted by ctmf at 12:18 PM on January 3, 2019

This hardly matters in the grand scheme of things, but if you need a little bit of schadenfreude today, some twitter troll uploaded a video of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dancing and having fun with her friends in college as if it was going to own her, and it's getting ratioed like CRAZY.

I saw that and was utterly perplexed. Like, oh, no, AOC was super cute and a little bit dorky in a dance video once, how will the Dems recover?
posted by gauche at 12:22 PM on January 3, 2019 [35 favorites]

They also don't have the slightest inkling that they might need to appeal to people who remember being, or currently are, teenage girls.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 12:32 PM on January 3, 2019 [44 favorites]

It was reblogged by a person with the username “AnonymousQ1776”, who is, of course, just completely triggered by a woman dancing in a fun video from college.

The person who originally posted it is named Dan Jordan, who also apparently thought people would be shocked and outraged by a video of a woman having fun.

Yes, congratulations New York.
posted by gucci mane at 12:40 PM on January 3, 2019 [22 favorites]

Also, she wasn't in high school then. That's Boston University and Boston in the full video.

Speaking of Boston and congresswomen, here's Ayanna Pressley reading from Maya Angelou's On the Pulse of the Morning, back when she was still a Boston city councilor, a year ago (the poem starts around 2:52).
posted by adamg at 12:44 PM on January 3, 2019 [13 favorites]

cannot wait for my enemies to post a video of me spinning around looking super hot with the shiny hair of youth and act like they just caught me breaking into the Watergate Hotel

posted by zombieflanders at 12:45 PM on January 3, 2019 [101 favorites]

WaPo's Robert Costa (3 hours ago): "VP Pence and Sen. Schumer just ran into each other in the hall of the Senate and huddled for a minute... Pence told reporters there are meetings planned for Friday on the shutdown... Schumer told reporters that GOP must reopen gov’t but wouldn’t comment on his convo w/ VP"

The Hill's Jordan Fabian (2 hours ago): "White House’s @hogangidley45 says formal invitation has been extended to congressional leaders to come to the WH tomorrow at 11:30 AM for shutdown talks."

Fox's Chad Pergram (just now): "Fox has spoken with multiple Democratic sources here on Capitol Hill. And they tell me that as of the last hour, they have still not received any invitation from the White House for a prospective meeting tomorrow on the partial government shutdown"

Well-oiled machine.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:45 PM on January 3, 2019 [14 favorites]

I saw that and was utterly perplexed. Like, oh, no, AOC was super cute and a little bit dorky in a dance video once, how will the Dems recover?

It was the dance scene from The Breakfast Club, complete with Ally Sheedy's signature breakdown move. How much of a Grinch do you have to be to be against that?
posted by scalefree at 12:48 PM on January 3, 2019 [23 favorites]

The AOC Dances Scandal has probably gotten the airtime it needs at this point, thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 1:01 PM on January 3, 2019 [10 favorites]

Trump's judicial nominees face setback (Marianne Levine, Politico)

The fate of 70 of President Donald Trump’s judicial nominees is in limbo after McConnell and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer failed to agree on a way to move them forward at the close of the 115th Congress.

Approving judicial nominees has been a priority for McConnell, who has won praise from President Donald Trump and conservatives for blocking former President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland and helping get Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh confirmed.

The inability to reach an agreement on moving forward with Trump’s nominees represents a setback, though the White House on Wednesday praised the overall confirmation of judges.

posted by ZeusHumms at 1:04 PM on January 3, 2019 [8 favorites]

The Daily Beast's Kevin Poulsen casts doubt on the idea of a Butina-Whelan spy swap: "Paul Whelan's arrest may be retaliation for Butina, but no way it's a scheme to get her back in a spy-swap. By her sentencing date she'll have already served more than the 6-month maximum contemplated by her plea agreement. She's looking at time-served and a plane ticket home. […] If Russia is really trying to engineer a prisoner exchange, it's not for Butina. It's for someone else. […] We know she’s been debriefed and given grand jury testimony, so it’s too late to get her back before she talks."
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:12 PM on January 3, 2019 [9 favorites]

There really doesn't seem to be any downside (from Putin's perspective) to Butina having been arrested and subsequently testifying, does there?
posted by bird internet at 1:18 PM on January 3, 2019

it's not for Butina. It's for someone else.
This makes so much sense. I don't even think Butina wants to go back, after she has been talking. But there are plenty other actors out there who might need a ticket to Russia.
posted by mumimor at 1:19 PM on January 3, 2019

You probably never want your assets arrested and convicted but, frankly, Butina doesn't exactly strike me as a member of the A-team of Russian Intelligence Operatives so Putin probably isn't crying himself to sleep over it.
posted by Justinian at 1:20 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

One more for the good news category - Maine's new governor Janet Mills signs order to expand Medicaid in Maine on day one.

The order is retroactive to July, and is expected to affect about 70,000 Mainers.
posted by mikepop at 1:21 PM on January 3, 2019 [91 favorites]

This is a good thing: Jamelle Bouie Joins The New York Times Opinion Pages as Columnist
posted by octothorpe at 1:25 PM on January 3, 2019 [34 favorites]

Wesley Bell, who was elected to replace the excreble Bob McCulloch, is making some changes at St Louis County. These on top of firing Kathi Alizedeh, who was the prosector in the Darren Wilson Grand Jury.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:27 PM on January 3, 2019 [11 favorites]

A play in two acts:

@PressSec [at 1:07pm]: There will be a briefing in the WH briefing room at 4:10pm today.

1:25pm: Trump shows up in the briefing room with ICE agents [live video], apparently jealous that people are paying attention to Pelosi and not him for five minutes

----

The Hill, GOP senator calls on Congress to end shutdown without border deal, in which Cory Gardner announces he has a problem in the next election and is the first to jump:

Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), who faces a potentially tough re-election in 2020, says Congress should re-open the federal government, even without a deal on funding President Trump’s border wall.

Gardner is the first Senate Republican to call for ending the partial shutdown even without a deal on President Trump’s demand for $5 billion to fund a border wall.

“I think we should pass a continuing resolution to get the government back open. The Senate has done it last Congress, we should do it again today,” he said.

posted by zachlipton at 1:29 PM on January 3, 2019 [33 favorites]

Nancy Pelosi elected House speaker, lays out agenda - YouTube (19 min.)

Surprise appearance by Tony Bennett.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:30 PM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

it's not for Butina. It's for someone else.

OR it's Putin signaling to Butina that she doesn't need to make a deal. If she keeps her mouth shut, he has other ways of getting her home. If she talks, she probably shouldn't return to Russia... (Though Putin might be able to get at her in other countries as well, like he did with Skirpal.)
posted by OnceUponATime at 1:32 PM on January 3, 2019

Katy Tur cut immediately away when the all the ~~skinhead~~ bald white dudes with Trump started spouting their propaganda. Good for her! CNN... not so much.

Also thats a lot of bald white dudes.
posted by Justinian at 1:32 PM on January 3, 2019 [16 favorites]

PS Also, all the STL stoners are waiting for Pritzker across the river to legalize marijuana already like he promised. Eads Bridge Weed Bridge.
posted by fluttering hellfire at 1:32 PM on January 3, 2019 [7 favorites]

Hasn’t Butina already talked? She really doesn’t seem like the type to have the skills to pull one over on the feds.
posted by a box and a stick and a string and a bear at 1:34 PM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

Butina has already talked.

1:25pm: Trump shows up in the briefing room with ICE agents [live video], apparently jealous that people are paying attention to Pelosi and not him for five minutes
Wow! that video is full-on Stalinist (or Pol Pot, or any other totalitarian regime)
posted by mumimor at 1:36 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

Hah. Trump didn't take a single question. He just came out and let the ~~skinhead~~ bald white posse spout some propaganda and then waddled back to wherever he crawled in from.

Katy Tur made the right call, CNN did not. When are they going to stop being Lucy with the football?
posted by Justinian at 1:37 PM on January 3, 2019 [32 favorites]

Update:

1:37 — the bald men all flee the briefing room without taking a single question as someone shouts "The point of the briefing room is to take questions."
posted by zachlipton at 1:38 PM on January 3, 2019 [49 favorites]

I think we just saw Katy Tur's Are You Kidding Me With This Shit? face.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:38 PM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

Roger Morris (who served in the United States Foreign Service and on the Senior Staff of the National Security Council under Johnson and Nixon, until resigning with Anthony Lake over the invasion of Cambodia) interviewed by Ian Masters to discuss the alarming possibility that after handing Syria to Putin, Trump now appears to be laying the groundwork for withdrawing America from NATO in what would be his greatest gift to Putin.
posted by growabrain at 1:40 PM on January 3, 2019 [9 favorites]

Mister Tony Bennett posted on FB a pic of him and his wife attending the swearing-in ceremony of Nancy Pelosi.

You'd be surprised at the level of vitriol directed to Beloved American Legend Tony Bennett. Or maybe not.

Tony Bennett is 92 years old.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:43 PM on January 3, 2019 [30 favorites]

Trump's New Catchphrase Is an Attempt to Delegitimize Dissent (David A. Graham, The Atlantic)

Facing pressure from the incoming Democratic majority in the House, the commander in chief swears he's the target of "presidential harassment."

Repeated over and over, and in this case, copied out of something Mitch McConnell said.
posted by ZeusHumms at 1:44 PM on January 3, 2019 [11 favorites]

"presidential harassment"

hahahahaha ok dude

as if criticizing the most powerful man in the world is not the very DEFINITION of punching up

hahahahahahahahahaha won't someone think of the poor president of the united states of america
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 1:47 PM on January 3, 2019 [75 favorites]

Facing pressure from the incoming Democratic majority in the House, the commander in chief swears he's the target of "presidential harassment."

The President is merely the most important among a large number of public servants. He should be supported or opposed exactly to the degree which is warranted by his good conduct or bad conduct, his efficiency or inefficiency in rendering loyal, able, and disinterested service to the Nation as a whole. Therefore it is absolutely necessary that there should be full liberty to tell the truth about his acts, and this means that it is exactly necessary to blame him when he does wrong as to praise him when he does right. Any other attitude in an American citizen is both base and servile. To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public. Nothing but the truth should be spoken about him or any one else. But it is even more important to tell the truth, pleasant or unpleasant, about him than about any one else.

— Teddy Roosevelt
posted by kirkaracha at 1:56 PM on January 3, 2019 [92 favorites]

Facing pressure from the incoming Democratic majority in the House, the commander in chief swears he's the target of "presidential harassment."

As if Trump's entire shtick for 8 years wasn't trash talking Obama.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 1:57 PM on January 3, 2019 [63 favorites]

Every single woman running for president in 2020 should announce by saying: "My name is [@KamalaHarris/@SenWarren/@amyklobuchar], and I'm not here to be likable. I'm here to fix this sh*t."
posted by growabrain at 1:57 PM on January 3, 2019 [99 favorites]

as if criticizing the most powerful man in the world is not the very DEFINITION of punching up

i swear to god that the only thing that has gotten us through the last two years is that the POTUS is only the most powerful man in the world during the moments when anyone gives a wet slap about anything that comes out of his fool mouth

(which is not to say that those moments are anywhere near infrequent enough for my liking)
posted by murphy slaw at 2:07 PM on January 3, 2019

Why does the name Paul Whelan feel so familiar to me? Have we heard of him in the past?
posted by gucci mane at 2:13 PM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

House now in the process of passing the new rules package, which includes a return to "regular order" that requires all bills to go through committee and a full 72 hours for them to be read by reps. I guess I'm naive, but I'm kind of amazed that we would ever need to *return* to this kind of no-brainer for actual governance (because we never would have abandoned this.
posted by Rykey at 2:15 PM on January 3, 2019 [14 favorites]

Why does the name Paul Whelan feel so familiar to me? Have we heard of him in the past?

You might be thinking of Ed Whelan, a pal of Brett Kavanaugh's who tried to pin the sexual assault on someone else.
posted by PenDevil at 2:17 PM on January 3, 2019 [13 favorites]

Final Speaker vote totals:

Pelosi: 220

Democrats voting other than Pelosi (15):

Anthony Brindisi (D) (NY-22): Joe Biden
Jim Cooper (D) (TN-05): "Present"
Jason Crow (D) (CO-06): Tammy Duckworth
Joe Cunningham (D) (SC-01): Cheri Bustos
Jared Golden (D) (ME-02): Cheri Bustos
Ron Kind (D) (WI-03): John Lewis
Conor Lamb (D) (PA-14): Joseph P. Kennedy III
Ben McAdams (D) (UT-04): Stephanie Murphy
Kathleen Rice (D) (NY-04): Stacey Abrams
Max Rose (D) (NY-11): Tammy Duckworth
Kurt Schrader (D) (OR-05): Marcia Fudge
Mikie Sherrill (D) (NJ-11): Cheri Bustos
Elissa Slotkin (D) (MI-08): "Present"
Abigal Spanberger (D) (VA-07): Cheri Bustos
Jeff Van Drew (D) (NJ-02): "Present" (originally "No")

McCarthy: 192

GOPers voting other than McCarthy (6):

Justin Amash (R) (MI-03): Thomas Massie
Andy Biggs (R) (AZ-05): Jim Jordan
Paul Gosar (R) (AZ-04): Jim Jordan
Jody Hice (R) (GA-10): Jim Jordan
Thomas Massie (R) (KY-04): Jim Jordan
Scott Perry (R) (PA-10): Jim Jordan

Not voting:

Walter Jones (R) (NC-03)
posted by Chrysostom at 2:19 PM on January 3, 2019 [7 favorites]

GOPers voting other than McCarthy (6)

In case anyone thought there was hope that republicans would turn away from tea party craziness and Trump.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 2:23 PM on January 3, 2019

NYT: White House Mulls Jim Webb, Ex-Democratic Senator, as Next Defense Secretary

Also by Jim Webb, 2013: Congressional Abdication (Harper's). "During my time in the Senate as a member of both the Armed Services and the Foreign Relations Committees, I repeatedly raised concerns about the growing assertion of executive power by the Bush and Obama Administrations, as well as about the lack of full accountability in the Department of Defense. These issues remain and still call for resolution."

I figure he'd deck 45 in a Cabinet meeting...
posted by MonkeyToes at 2:23 PM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

Webb would sail through confirmation hearings and Trump probably thinks he's playing three-dimensional chess by appointing a Democrat.

Webb would probably resign or be fired within three months.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:29 PM on January 3, 2019 [9 favorites]

Webb's resignation would make Mattis's look like a love letter. If there's any brains left in the operation they'll pick appointments based on how polite of an ex cabinet member they'd be.
posted by cmfletcher at 2:39 PM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

Webb is terrible, and I think that Trump's appeals to racism might resonate with him, but he's not a stupid man, and I can't think of any reason he would agree to serve in the Trump administration.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:39 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

If there's any brains left in the operation they'll pick appointments based on how polite of an ex cabinet member they'd be.

Legibility would be an improvement.
posted by peeedro at 2:43 PM on January 3, 2019 [1 favorite]

GOPers voting other than McCarthy (6)

In case anyone thought there was hope that republicans would turn away from tea party craziness and Trump.

Considering 5 of those 6 votes were for Jim Jordan, who is (arguably) even more of a right-wing loon than McCarthy . . . . Nah. No hope.
posted by soundguy99 at 2:48 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

Please convince me that the optics of this photo-op weren't absolutely intentional on the same day in which the most racially and gender diverse freshman congressional class in US history was sworn in.
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:52 PM on January 3, 2019 [26 favorites]

Before Trump's all-too-brief briefing this afternoon, @realDonaldTrump posted a "Crisis on the Border" video, which looks like a parody of propaganda à la RoboCop. Just now, Trump's Instagram posted a new GoT "The Wall Is Coming" meme. {Pic, if you must see}

It's as though this afternoon Trump's comms team became desperate to distract the American people—or maybe just Trump himself—from the reality that the House, and all its committees with subpoena power, is controlled by the opposition. And this parade of stupidities is the best they can do at short notice.

Butina has already talked.

Marcy Wheeler, from last month: The Geography of Maria Butina’s Cooperation (Paul Erickson is presumably toast by now, but there's no indication Butina's been cooperating with Mueller.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:54 PM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

...the best they can do at short notice.

They've had several weeks to plan for today. :) This appears to be the best they can do, period.

Here's hoping we all survive to enjoy the positive results of this possible turning point.
posted by ZakDaddy at 2:58 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

That's also the best they can make Trump look? Why are his eyes so red? He looks like he's holding his breath after taking a third hit from the bong.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:04 PM on January 3, 2019 [7 favorites]

Folks, please reel it in a little with the dark timeline and the "I bet Trump would say x" agita commenting.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:18 PM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

I know we are done the AOC dancing video discussion in general, but catching up after the fact I watched the full version. I have three observations that make trying to use it against her even more stupid/evil/2019. I haven't seen any of these discussed above:

It isn't a bunch of friends goofing around. That would be cute enough, but this is a professional, official promotional piece done by an official part of Boston University.
In particular, it is presented by, the Howard Thurman Center for the Common Ground. Their blurb reads: "Dr. Howard Thurman believed in the unity of all people and that meaningful, creative experiences shared among people for sustained periods of time can help break barriers that divide them. [snip] ...providing programs, events and experiences to students designed to encourage their creative exchange of ideas, thoughts, beliefs and opinions. "
If you watch the credits at the end, AOC isn't just one of the performers, she's one of the producers.

So, leadership, the right sort of causes, and turns out she can dance. I can't imagine better college-era 'dirt' to dig up on a politician.
posted by bcd at 3:30 PM on January 3, 2019 [121 favorites]

The Trey Gowdy clown show is now over. Nothing sadder than an unemployed clown
posted by growabrain at 3:32 PM on January 3, 2019 [22 favorites]

Just now, Trump's Instagram posted a new GoT "The Wall Is Coming" meme. {Pic, if you must see}

Dan Pfeiffer: Who wants to tell him that the central premise of Game of Thrones is that walls don’t work?
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:40 PM on January 3, 2019 [74 favorites]

To put the final cap on the instant global phenomenon that is AOC's dance video, here's the history & backstory behind it. It's even educational at times. Surprisingly worth reading.

@xor The delightful dancing video of AOC that is being circulated right now* is actually part of a pretty storied, if now mostly forgotten, remix culture phenomenon. If you'll allow me...

--
* apparently by numbskulls incapable of joy
posted by scalefree at 3:41 PM on January 3, 2019 [21 favorites]

Dan Pfeiffer: Who wants to tell him that the central premise of Game of Thrones is that walls don’t work?

I thought the central premise of game of thrones is that cruel and stupid oligarchs and aristocrats plus a mess of corroded and sclerotic institutions will fail to stop everybody dying from climate change.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:46 PM on January 3, 2019 [94 favorites]

The President is merely the most important among a large number of public servants. He should be supported or opposed exactly to the degree which is warranted by his good conduct or bad conduct, his efficiency or inefficiency in rendering loyal, able, and disinterested service to the Nation as a whole.

Sooooo...tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail? Or just chucked in a Dumpster and lit on fire?
posted by sexyrobot at 4:01 PM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

It feels as though the media's still absorbing the significance of Trump's batshit cabinet meeting/press conference from yesterday, not least since it was almost non-stop bullshit. The Washington Post's Anne Gearan describes it in her overview article, A Defensive Trump Calls a Cabinet Meeting And Uses It to Boast, Deflect and Distract, as "a 95-minute stream-of-consciousness defense of his presidency and worldview, filled with falsehoods, revisionist history and self-aggrandizement". (The NYT's competing article's headline called it "Mostly Fact-Free".) And that's not even addressing how he described a group of Pentagon generals as "better looking than Tom Cruise and stronger".

WaPo's Josh Dawsey captures the blackly comic absurdity of it, writing an hour ago: "Ran into a fact-checker colleague at the Post who looked tired. "How's it going?" I said. "I'm still working on that Cabinet meeting from yesterday," he said, walking back to his desk."

WaPo fact-checker Sal Rizzo: "This is the PG-13 version of what was said"
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:03 PM on January 3, 2019 [21 favorites]

If women had held that briefing about the wall, they'd been labeled hysterical. There was this high-pitched emphasis in certain places that made it sound like the first scene in a horror movie, where a group of people are trying to convince a skeptical public that X is coming for the human race.

For me, it just sent me into a little fugue of "remember when we had responsible people running the country" but the briefing wasn't for me. It was for the 27%.

It does scare me. Sooner or later this fucker will be gone and I hope he suffers mightily before he shuffles off this mortal coil. But the damage will still be there. A quarter of this country will be convinced that refugees from the south are the devil.

And Americans who are suffering now because of wage stagnation and lack of benefits and Americans who will suffer in the inevitable economic downturn are going to have a monster to turn and point to, to say everything from "we should hep our own person first" to racial epithets.s

Man history is taught in schools isn't it? The scapegoating of an ethnicity/group of people is just not anything new and I don't understand why a single person would fall for it.
posted by angrycat at 4:18 PM on January 3, 2019 [16 favorites]

Because many of them want to.
posted by delfin at 4:22 PM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

The scapegoating of an ethnicity/group of people is just not anything new and I don't understand why a single person would fall for it.

Because everyone wants to believe that the reason they're not as rich, healthy, respected, and happy as they want to be, is because someone is preventing them. (Sensible people are aware this is rarely the case, or at least that the "someones" are generally just people trying to acquire their own wealth and happiness, not take away yours.) The more you've been raised to believe a certain level of status and comfort is your due, the more likely you are to look for scapegoats when you don't get them.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:45 PM on January 3, 2019 [5 favorites]

Yesterday, Trump said, “I know more about drones than anybody.”

This seems like a ripe subject for discussion by the press. I would like to see SBS respond to reporters saying, "Ms. Sanders, given that the President knows more about drones than anyone, when can we look forward to some new designs to come out of the Oval Office?"

Yes, it's petty, but since the press secretary basically is always wasting their time, it seems that turnabout is fair play. If they never get an honest answer from here, why bother asking honest questions?
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 4:46 PM on January 3, 2019 [36 favorites]

Trump's New Catchphrase: 'Presidential Harassment' - The Atlantic

Revised title: Trump’s New Catchphrase Is an Attempt to Delegitimize Dissent
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:51 PM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

Trump’s New Catchphrase Is His Most Obvious Projection Yet: 'Presidential Harassment' is what HE does.
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:54 PM on January 3, 2019 [17 favorites]

This seems like a ripe subject for discussion by the press. I would like to see SBS respond to reporters saying, "Ms. Sanders, given that the President knows more about drones than anyone, when can we look forward to some new designs to come out of the Oval Office?"

Last time I suggested reporters be sassy and logical like this, everyone said "They can't, because they'll lose access to the press briefings."

Hope they're enjoying that amazing access now.
posted by mmoncur at 5:00 PM on January 3, 2019 [20 favorites]

Thread on freedom.
posted by Dashy at 6:14 PM on January 3, 2019 [60 favorites]

Damn, that Twitter link is chilling. Thanks, Dashy.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:31 PM on January 3, 2019 [3 favorites]

@MEPFuller: House passes stopgap spending bill for DHS, and five Republicans break ranks to support it. Bill passes 239-192. House now voting on a spending bill for the remaining closed agencies. Right out of the gate, five Republicans vote for it. Current tally is 152-158.

McConnell has already said he won't allow a vote in the Senate on any bill that Trump won't sign (a position he decidedly did not take when trying to repeal the ACA when Obama was President), and the White House has already issued a veto threat.
posted by zachlipton at 6:47 PM on January 3, 2019 [20 favorites]

Chad Pergram (Fox): Partial gov't shutdown expected to run through wknd & much longer. Hse Dems telling mbrs they will be given 24 hrs notice before any votes, pending Senate action on appropriations bills. Hse will send its 2 spending bills to Senate tonight where they will be dead on arrival

Josh Barro: We have never had a prolonged shutdown under a Republican president before. I don't think Trump gets how vulnerable he will be to the labor actions that will ensue if this persists way past the January 11 paycheck date. What if TSA agents walk off the job? I think Trump's theory is Dems care about the functioning of government and he doesn't so he can wait them out through a long shutdown. That's wrong -- if essential workers stop showing up, voters across the spectrum will care about what's not working. Air travel is Exhibit A. That's to say nothing of IRS being unable to process refunds.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:48 PM on January 3, 2019 [41 favorites]

Katy Tur cut immediately away when the all the skinhead bald white dudes with Trump started spouting their propaganda.

It should be noted that these weren't officials of the border patrol. The two speakers were president and vice-president of the National Border Patrol Council, that is their "union" leaders. So these were not officials speaking for the CBP. These were Trump's personal brown-shirts declaring their loyalty.

Always remember about law enforcement so-called "unions". These people carry badges and guns and tasers for the masters. They aren't labor -- they are management.
posted by JackFlash at 6:51 PM on January 3, 2019 [76 favorites]

Rick Hasen:

There's an excellent chance that tomorrow the Supreme Court will announce it will take up (again) the question whether partisan gerrymandering is unconstitutional. Don't take an agreement to hear case as a sign the Court will police gerrymandering. It is actually the opposite. /1 A three-judge district court found that North Carolina's congressional districts were an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. These kinds of cases come up to #SCOTUS on "appeal" not a "cert. petition" and a ruling not to hear an appeal means the lower court got it right. /2 So it's almost impossible to believe that Court won't hear the North Carolina case. Last term the Court ducked the merits in the Wisconsin partisan gerrymandering case. But it is clear that the conservatives on the Court are skeptical federal courts can police gerrymandering. /3 The wildcard last year was Justice Kennedy, who had vacillated on the question whether courts could hear partisan gerrymandering cases since 2004. The Court's punt in Wisconsin was because Kennedy wasn't ready to join the four liberals to start federal courts policing this. /4 And now Kennedy is gone, replaced by Kavanaugh. We don't know what Justice Kavanaugh thinks specifically about partisan gerrymandering, but his general ideological orientation makes me very skeptical he'd vote to have courts enter this "political thicket." /5 It's not impossible that Kavanaugh or even CJ Roberts is willing to police partisan gerrymandering, but I wouldn't bet on it. They might look for another way to sidestep the issue in NC, and in a Maryland case also pending. /6 But they won't be able to duck partisan gerrymandering forever. And if they don't police there will be more egregious gerrymanders in states with unified control of legislature and governship where they draw district lines. /7 I do like the argument of @ProfGuyCharles and Luis Fuentes-Rohwer that if the Court really wants to stay out of the thicket overall, it is better to police the most egregious cases. https://harvardlawreview.org/2018/11/judicial-intervention-as-judicial-restraint/ … That's the best pitch to Roberts /8 But I'm bearish & suggested that if the Court decides that federal courts cannot hear partisan gerrymandering cases, it's next target could be to declare unconstitutional the use of nonpartisan redistricting commissions to draw congressional districts. Bottom line is that not only should we not expect #SCOTUS to save us from bad politics; we should expect that #SCOTUS will continue to make political reform less possible. 10/10

posted by T.D. Strange at 6:54 PM on January 3, 2019 [6 favorites]

Good summary from the Brennan Center of the voting rights provisions in HR1.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:58 PM on January 3, 2019 [2 favorites]

purple-stater Tammy Baldwin (who, to be clear, is great, despite previously getting a little shade on this site for saying something nice about the Packers (!) )

The citizen-owned non-profit Green Bay Packers are clearly the most socialist football team. Every other team is owned by billionaires, and all but a couple of them are right-wing assholes. Jed York of the 49ers and Jeff Lurie of the Eagles are two of the more liberal ones. Maybe Arthur Blank of the Falcons? Maybe the Wilfs of the Vikings?
posted by msalt at 6:58 PM on January 3, 2019 [17 favorites]

Legislation introduced in Minnesota to restore voting rights for anyone not currently incarcerated; and in New Mexico to eliminate *all* felony disqualification.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:01 PM on January 3, 2019 [56 favorites]

The late Dan Rooney (Steelers) was an Obama backer, which led to Obama naming him ambassador to Ireland. Not sure how the current Rooney generation shapes up politically.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 PM on January 3, 2019 [4 favorites]

Thread on freedom

Featuring @jack doing the dirty work of silencing activists who are currently missing or being tortured on behalf of Mohammed bin Salman

He’s helping, like a little freelance Goebbels
posted by schadenfrau at 7:03 PM on January 3, 2019 [45 favorites]

The two speakers were president and vice-president of the National Border Patrol Council, that is their "union" leaders.

Dara Lind had a good story on that today: How the Border Patrol union became Trump’s closest shutdown allies

The federal immigration enforcement unions are law enforcement unions, and they’re far to the policy advocacy side of the scale. They’ve consistently advocated for a more hawkish immigration enforcement policy, one that allows (or even requires) agents to arrest and detain every unauthorized immigrant they find and reduces opportunities for people who come without papers to get legal status in the United States.

Instead of seeing immigration enforcement as just a matter of officer safety, crucially, they see it as a matter of officer morale.

The Department of Homeland Security consistently scores very badly on employee morale surveys, and the department has been plagued by management and organizational problems since its creation in 2002 (which is unsurprising given how hastily it was cobbled together). And the voice of that discontent has been the enforcement unions — who claim that the morale problem is really a policy problem.

In their telling, Border Patrol (and Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents are driven by their mission — to enforce immigration law and catch lawbreakers. Anything that would appear to restrain that mission, such as limiting who they can and can’t arrest or having to care for large groups of unaccompanied children and families, isn’t just an inconvenience to them but an active insult to the reason they signed up for the job.

Meanwhile, the AFGE, the largest federal employee union, sued the government over the shutdown for failure to pay essential employees who are working.
posted by zachlipton at 7:05 PM on January 3, 2019 [18 favorites]

@feliciasonmez (WaPo):

“Let me be clear, House Democrats are down with NDP -- Nancy D’Alesandro Pelosi,” Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) says, in what is perhaps the first nod to a Naughty by Nature song in a nominating speech for House speaker.

posted by Chrysostom at 7:06 PM on January 3, 2019 [57 favorites]

WSJ:

Officials at the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts say the judiciary will begin to face significant challenges after Jan. 11 if funding hasn’t been restored. The courts have been dipping into court fees and other sources that aren’t dependent on new congressional appropriations, but those funds have their limits.

If the shutdown continues, federal courts will have to come up with plans for managing reduced operations, and funding could be in jeopardy for jurors, court reporters, public defenders and some court staffers, as well as for some supervision and other services the courts provide to offenders on probation. The Supreme Court faces the same funding timeline as the rest of the courts, a high-court spokeswoman said Wednesday.

posted by Chrysostom at 7:15 PM on January 3, 2019 [23 favorites]

It's going to start getting bad, quickly, after next week. In 2013 no one actually missed a paycheck. TSA agents don't make much, not many of them are going to be able to hold out long at at all, "essential" or not.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:22 PM on January 3, 2019 [13 favorites]

Anything that would appear to restrain that mission, such as limiting who they can and can’t arrest or having to care for large groups of unaccompanied children and families, isn’t just an inconvenience to them but an active insult to the reason they signed up for the job.

They signed up to terrorize minorities, and how dare anyone try to stop them? Jesus Christ what a horrifying pack of sociopaths.
posted by EatTheWeek at 7:44 PM on January 3, 2019 [33 favorites]

enforcing immigration policy should be one of those jobs where expressing enthusiasm for the work should be an immediate disqualification
posted by murphy slaw at 7:53 PM on January 3, 2019 [25 favorites]

Immigration policy should be a social worker position, not enforcement.
posted by valkane at 8:02 PM on January 3, 2019 [74 favorites]

Not only is Tony Bennett 92 years old, but he's a war veteran, a patriot, and a goddamn American hero; three things that Cadet Bone Spurs cannot and will not ever be able to claim.

Anthony Dominick Benedetto was born on August 3, 1926, in the Astoria neighborhood of New York City's Queens borough to Italian immigrant grocer John Benedetto and first generation Italian-American seamstress Anna Suraci. His father ended up ailing and unable to work, so the children grew up in poverty. John Sr. instilled in his son a love of art and literature and a compassion for human suffering, and died when Tony was 10 years old. The experience of growing up in the Great Depression and a distaste for the effects of the Hoover Administration would make the child a lifelong Democrat.

Benedetto was drafted into the United States Army in November 1944, during the final stages of World War II, and he became an infantry rifleman. In January 1945, he was assigned as a replacement infantryman to the 255th Infantry Regiment of the 63rd Infantry Division, which moved across France, and later, into Germany. As March 1945 began, he joined the front line and what he would later describe as a "front-row seat in hell."

Benedetto and his company saw bitter fighting in cold winter conditions, often hunkering down in foxholes as German 88 mm guns fired on them. At the end of March, they crossed the Rhine and entered Germany, engaging in dangerous house-to-house, town-after-town fighting to clean out German soldiers; during the first week of April, they crossed the Kocher River, and by the end of the month reached the Danube. During his time in combat, Benedetto narrowly escaped death several times. The experience made him a pacifist; he would later write, "Anybody who thinks that war is romantic obviously hasn't gone through one," and later say, "It was a nightmare that's permanent. I just said, 'This is not life. This is not life.'" At the war's conclusion he was involved in the liberation of a Nazi concentration camp near Landsberg, where some American prisoners of war from the 63rd Division had also been held.

Benedetto stayed in Germany as part of the occupying force, but was assigned to an informal Special Services band unit that would entertain nearby American forces. His dining with a black friend from high school – at a time when the Army was still racially segregated – led to his being demoted and reassigned to Graves Registration Service duties.
posted by elsietheeel at 8:11 PM on January 3, 2019 [106 favorites]

isn’t just an inconvenience to them but an active insult to the reason they signed up for the job.

Before the mask came off I'd have had a hard time believing that to a goodly portion of the country, inconveniencing or insulting law enforcement is infinitely worse than dehydrating children to death in concentration camps.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:12 PM on January 3, 2019 [12 favorites]

Not only is Tony Bennett 92 years old, but he's a war veteran, a patriot, and a goddamn American hero

He also marched with Dr. King from Selma to Montgomery in 1965, at risk to his career and his person. His politics are nothing new -- he has always been courageous, and modest about it.

That he should be attacked by 'fans' for something as simple as attending a ceremony of the democratic process is sickening. Not even this great American gets a pass. No-one is exempt, partisan rabidity must turn on all.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:26 PM on January 3, 2019 [92 favorites]

Anything that would appear to restrain that mission, such as limiting who they can and can’t arrest or having to care for large groups of unaccompanied children and families, isn’t just an inconvenience to them but an active insult to the reason they signed up for the job.

Anything that limits who they can and can’t arrest like... the Constitution?

So one of the parts of the government affected by the shutdown that's supposedly for the sake of “border security” is E-Verify, which lets employers check the immigration status of people they've hired.
posted by XMLicious at 8:34 PM on January 3, 2019 [9 favorites]

Anything that limits who they can and can’t arrest like... the Constitution?

I've been pondering two things recently. (1) The word "immigration" does not appear in the Constitution because the Framer's Original Intent was the Open Borders they enjoyed and (2) The very first "immigration" law unconstitutionally discriminated on sex and ethnicity, targeted Asian women.

All of immigration legislation is founded on bad-faith and dishonesty. From what I read it's also unconstitutional.

Impedance Mismatch between the desired state and the current state is why things are so fucked up.
posted by mikelieman at 8:48 PM on January 3, 2019 [23 favorites]

Since we're on to the subject... it seems to me that when nationalists blather about “catch and release” what they're actually saying is that they don't like the fact that the suspension clause of the Constitution exists, the stuff about writs of habeas corpus.

But like every other time in my life I've tried to get a basic handle on habeas corpus, I'm just getting sucked down a vortex of historical legal details. The general common law Wikipedia article on it, in the section on the U.S., contains the uncited statement

Habeas corpus is also used as a legal avenue to challenge other types of custody such as pretrial detention or detention by the United States Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement pursuant to a deportation proceeding.

There's also a long article specifically concerning habeas corpus in the United States but I haven't come across anything pertinent yet in the portions and sources I've read from it.

Another thing that's occurred to me in the course of my reading is that when they do the racist and xenophobic thing where they conflate all undocumented immigrants with criminals, via undocumented immigrants having implicitly violated immigration laws, a notably false and particularly misleading and vile aspect of that notion is that they also need immigration violations to not be criminal acts... because if they were actually defending themselves against criminal charges then detainees would have a Sixth Amendment right to counsel.

And also per a previous FPP, suspension of the writ of habeas corpus was an essential component of the WWII round-ups of Asian-American citizens and immigrants into concentration camps.
posted by XMLicious at 10:59 PM on January 3, 2019 [14 favorites]

The plot thickens… The Guardian: Ex-US marine accused of spying in Russia is British citizen—Paul Whelan revealed to be dual national after being arrested in Moscow for ‘act of espionage’. "The US ambassador to Russia, Jon Huntsman, met Whelan at Lefortovo prison, the former KGB facility where he is being held, [on Wednesday]. The ambassador said Washington had complained to the Russian government about the length of time it had taken to grant consular access to Whelan after his arrest." Involving an ambassador already raised eyebrows, but now it turns out this guy is also a US-UK citizen? Did Putin want a twofer?
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:00 AM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

Recall that the UK has itself been getting a bit annoyed with Putin, what with assassinating people on its soil and quite possibly killed an innocent bystander in the process. It wouldn't surprise me if Whelan is being used as a bargaining chip against the UK rather than the US. Or both. Or neither, it's Russia, he may have just pissed somebody off through the usual boorishness that people with even a tangential relationship to Trump always seem to have in spades.
posted by wierdo at 1:25 AM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

Paul Whelan also just seems like a strange guy: American charged with espionage in Russia has an unlikely background for a spy. I've seen some speculation that this is a bit more of a Carter Page situation than anything else; it doesn't make a lot of sense.
posted by zachlipton at 1:33 AM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

Maybe it's just some more master-level Russian Trolling.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:33 AM on January 4, 2019

Here is the NYTimes version: Spy or Not? American Who Loves Russia Ensnared in New Cold War
In there is a John Sipher, a former C.I.A. officer who served in Moscow and ran the agency’s Russia operations, I mean, it's increasingly clear that we are the unwilling extras in some extraterrestrial comedy show. What can we do?
posted by mumimor at 4:25 AM on January 4, 2019 [19 favorites]

Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib on the subject of impeachment. NSFW (audio).
posted by Harry Caul at 5:06 AM on January 4, 2019 [21 favorites]

CNN presents juicy leaked details about Wednesday’s White House shutdown meeting: A tossed letter, an angry interruption and a closed government: few signs a shutdown deal is near

Seated at the head of his long board room table, Trump turned to the Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and began griping about the state of his administration's nominees, whom he complained were languishing without votes, according to an account from two people in the room.

As the men -- separated at the table only by Vice President Mike Pence -- began arguing, Trump reached into his jacket pocket to retrieve a sheet of paper: the "great letter" from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un he had brandished to reporters earlier in the day.

"Read this," he instructed Schumer, before flinging the document over the table in the senator's direction.[…]

As Schumer read through the letter that Trump tossed at him, the President instructed his Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen -- beaming into the session on video conference -- to begin her presentation on what the White House has deemed a "crisis" on the border.

Schumer interjected, placing Kim's letter back on the table, and told soon-to-be House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to begin laying out the Democrat's proposals to break the deadlock -- an interruption a Department of Homeland Security spokeswoman later called "incredibly disheartening."

See also WaPo: Trump, once fiery on Twitter, warms to old-fashioned mash notes from Kim Jong Un
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:26 AM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

If the shutdown continues, federal courts will have to come up with plans for managing reduced operations, and funding could be in jeopardy for jurors, court reporters, public defenders and some court staffers, as well as for some supervision and other services the courts provide to offenders on probation. The Supreme Court faces the same funding timeline as the rest of the courts, a high-court spokeswoman said Wednesday.

By the way, I've wondered if a Democratic House could withhold all funding for SCOTUS -- all of it, including and especially salaries -- unless Kavanaugh resigns.
posted by Gelatin at 6:25 AM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

As with previous shutdowns: No one can get a marriage license in DC during the government shutdown.
posted by duffell at 6:28 AM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

By the way, I've wondered if a Democratic House could withhold all funding for SCOTUS -- all of it, including and especially salaries -- unless Kavanaugh resigns.

No.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:32 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Chrysostom: Good summary from the Brennan Center of the voting rights provisions in HR1.

House Democrats officially unveil their first bill in the majority: a sweeping anti-corruption proposal (Ella Nilsen, Vox)

This is HR 1, the first thing House Democrats will tackle now that a new Congress has been sworn in. To be clear, this legislation has little to no chance of passing the Republican-controlled Senate or being signed by President Donald Trump. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell already bluntly stated, “That’s not going to go anywhere.”

But by making anti-corruption their No. 1 priority, House Democrats are throwing down the gauntlet for Republicans. A vast majority of Americans want to get the influence of money out of politics, and want Congress to pass laws to do so. New polling from the PAC End Citizens United found 82 percent of all voters and 84 percent of independents said they support a bill of reforms to tackle corruption.

Given how popular the issue is, and Trump’s multitude of scandals, it looks bad for Republicans to be the party opposing campaign finance reform — especially going into 2020.

posted by ZeusHumms at 6:33 AM on January 4, 2019 [61 favorites]

HR1 = Draining the swamp: not just campaign rhetoric, but a detailed plan.
posted by jetsetsc at 6:38 AM on January 4, 2019 [25 favorites]

As with previous shutdowns: No one can get a marriage license in DC during the government shutdown.

Update from DCist: ‘LOVE Act’ Would Let Mayor Issue D.C. Marriage Licenses, Shutdown Be Damned . "On Thursday, the thirteenth day of the government shutdown, Bowser’s office sent along the “Let Our Vows Endure Emergency Act of 2019,” which shortens to the LOVE Act. The text of the bill was first tweeted out by Washington Post reporter Fenit Nirappil. As written, the draft allows the mayor to authorize marriage licenses along with the clerk of the Superior Court of D.C. when the federal government is shut down."
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:38 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

HR 1's title is amazing: "H.R.1 - To expand Americans' access to the ballot box, reduce the influence of big money in politics, and strengthen ethics rules for public servants, and for other purposes."
posted by mikelieman at 6:45 AM on January 4, 2019 [49 favorites]

The fact that, during a meeting ostensibly about the government shutdown (and Jesus fuck, the fact that phrase even exists is enraging), Donald John Trump hurled a love letter to him from North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is... well about what we've learned to expect from Trump.

And that really shows how low our standards have fallen. There was a time when a US President angry/proudly brandishing a letter stuffed with praise from some two bit dictator would have been, if not grounds for 25th Amendment removal, at least grounds for the media to spend the next several months mocking that President. But for us, it was Tuesday.
posted by sotonohito at 6:59 AM on January 4, 2019 [59 favorites]

As with previous shutdowns: No one can get a marriage license in DC during the government shutdown.

This is a new policy, the DC marriage bureau was accepting applications and issuing marriage licenses but not performing scheduled civil ceremonies during the 2013 shutdown. At that point there was nowhere in the southeast US for same sex couples to be married and I believe the DC Courts kept the basic functions of the Marriage Bureau as essential for this reason. I helped hundreds of couples get married in DC before Obergefell and the 2013 shutdown slowed things down a little but the DC marriage bureau remained open.
posted by peeedro at 7:03 AM on January 4, 2019 [15 favorites]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell already bluntly stated, “That’s not going to go anywhere.”

Is there a possibility that the Republican-controlled Senate might simply refuse to pass anything that the Democrat-controlled House puts forward? Is a complete blockage of everything until 2020 a possible scenario?
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 7:06 AM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

Probably not. Even the Republicans want to keep at least some parts of the government open, so eventually they've got to at least pass some vague sort of budget if just to keep the money flowing to the military.
posted by sotonohito at 7:07 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

/6 But they won't be able to duck partisan gerrymandering forever.

Assumes facts not in evidence. This presumes the Supremes under Roberts would be unwilling to make nakedly partisan/self-interested choices to the detriment of legal consistency across circuits. While Roberts has in the past shown a desire to leave a non-embarrassing (for certain values thereof) legacy, I don't think post 2016 has left us with any reason to presume righty political operators have limits.
posted by phearlez at 7:08 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

That's wrong -- if essential workers stop showing up, voters across the spectrum will care about what's not working. Air travel is Exhibit A. That's to say nothing of IRS being unable to process refunds.

I caught about 30 seconds of AM talk radio in a rental car last week, and the discussion was about "Does the government being shutdown actually matter?". This was on Thursday, so the shutdown had been Saturday, Sunday, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and the 26th.

I was not particularly impressed at the lack of impact the shutdown had on the hosts's life. I'd love to hear their thoughts in another week or two should it continue.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 7:19 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

As the men -- separated at the table only by Vice President Mike Pence -- began arguing, Trump reached into his jacket pocket to retrieve a sheet of paper: the "great letter" from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un he had brandished to reporters earlier in the day.

"Read this," he instructed Schumer, before flinging the document over the table in the senator's direction.[…]

"Maybe you shouldn't be bringing me every little piece of trash you pick up." -Tyler Durden
posted by springo at 7:24 AM on January 4, 2019 [34 favorites]

Hackers Leak Details of German Lawmakers, Except Those on Far Right
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:34 AM on January 4, 2019 [12 favorites]

I've wondered if a Democratic House could withhold all funding for SCOTUS -- all of it, including and especially salaries -- unless Kavanaugh resigns.

1) No.
2) What would Kavanaugh's motivation for resigning be? It's not like he cares if the other judges are strapped for money. It's not like he cares if lack of funds means the court can't operate (because even if the judges will work for free, the aides and clerks won't). He's got his plum lifelong assignment, and he's going to stick with it.

The only way he's being removed is if he goes to prison for actual crimes, and then Congress decides to impeach in order to open that seat to have a tiebreaker vote. They won't want to do that if the president at the time is going to put in a left-leaning judge. (Although it's possible that, if he's facing prison, he could be talked into resigning as part of a plea deal.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:35 AM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

Doktor Zed: Seated at the head of his long board room table, Trump turned to the Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and began griping about the state of his administration's nominees, whom he complained were languishing without votes, according to an account from two people in the room.

FCC gets a new Democrat, is back to full slate of five commissioners -- Senate approves Democrat Geoffrey Starks for open FCC seat. (Jon Brodkin for Ars Technica, Jan. 3, 2019)

The Federal Communications Commission will once again have a full lineup of five commissioners, with three Republicans and two Democrats. The FCC has had three Republicans but only one Democrat since Mignon Clyburn left the agency in May 2018.

Democrat Geoffrey Starks has been in line to replace Clyburn since June and was confirmed by the US Senate in a voice vote yesterday. Starks will join Commissioner Jessica Rosenworcel as one of two Democrats; the FCC's Republicans are Chairman Ajit Pai, Michael O'Rielly, and Brendan Carr.

Rosenworcel congratulated Starks in a statement, saying, "I look forward to working together on a broad range of our shared goals, from protecting consumers to serving the public interest to ensuring that every American has a fair shot at success in the digital age."

Starks was an FCC staffer, serving as assistant chief of the commission's Enforcement Bureau. He will fill a term that expires in June 2022.

SEVEN MONTHS to get a confirmation, to bring the FCC commission up to a full staff with Dems still in the minority (by law, president's party maintains a one-vote majority on the FCC). Tell me again about how sad you are that your nominees are stalled, and I'll say one more name -- Merrick Garland.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:43 AM on January 4, 2019 [27 favorites]

The only way he's being removed is if he goes to prison for actual crimes, and then Congress decides to impeach in order to open that seat to have a tiebreaker vote.

Getting rid of Kavanaugh would be easy for the House. Open a hearing on government oversight of the "Kavanaugh Issue", and have everyone with a credible claim testify.

I suppose they could subpoena Kavanaugh to attend, to be cross examined under oath after each witness testifies.

SPOILER: Kavanaugh's college roommate says Kavanaugh was a violent blackout drunk. During his hearing Kavanaugh testitifed under oath that he was not a violent blackout drunk.

Arrest him for violating 18 USC 1001, and let justice be done, though the heavens fall.
posted by mikelieman at 7:43 AM on January 4, 2019 [49 favorites]

Trump reached into his jacket pocket to retrieve a sheet of paper: the "great letter" from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un he had brandished to reporters earlier in the day.

Trump is not very good at keeping secrets, there has to be a photographer with a higher resolution photo of that page of the letter Trump waved around in the cabinet meeting.
posted by peeedro at 7:48 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

It's almost legible already, a bit of work in matlab and a super-resolution algorithm and I bet someone cleverer than me could work out the probable text. The last two words of the first line are clearly "Donald Trump", for instance...
posted by BungaDunga at 7:53 AM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

HR 1's title is amazing: "H.R.1 - To expand Americans' access to the ballot box, reduce the influence of big money in politics, and strengthen ethics rules for public servants, and for other purposes."

That's great, but too lengthy to be an effective message. Can we just refer to it as "TEAATTBBRTIOBMIPASTERFPSAFOP"?
posted by Kibbutz at 8:00 AM on January 4, 2019 [8 favorites]

Wow, the right half of the page is almost entirely legible, but the left half is too blurry to read.
posted by rikschell at 8:25 AM on January 4, 2019

Now is the time to begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump, by Rashida Tlaib and John Bonifaz

I like this woman. A lot.
posted by agregoli at 8:25 AM on January 4, 2019 [41 favorites]

New Wave of Democrats Realizes You Can Get Things Just by Asking for Them (Ben Mathis-Lilley, Slate)

As I’ve written before at tedious length, senior Democrats like Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (not to mention Hillary Clinton) seem to operate under the assumption that the Democratic Party should play a fundamentally defensive game—that, while it should have a certain set of steadfast principles about the social safety net and environmental protection and such, its primary role is to contain Republican aggression, manage corporate interests, and win over skeptical swing voters.* Sanders, Jayapal, Ocasio-Cortez, Warren, and others clearly have a different approach—and whatever you think of the merits of their policy proposals, at the moment their go-big-or-go-home strategy instincts appear to be winning the day.

posted by ZeusHumms at 8:28 AM on January 4, 2019 [56 favorites]

Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib on the subject of impeachment. NSFW (audio).

@realDonaldTrump jumped on the impeachment issue first thing this morning (100% chance of Trump authorship): "How do you impeach a president who has won perhaps the greatest election of all time, done nothing wrong (no Collusion with Russia, it was the Dems that Colluded), had the most successful first two years of any president, and is the most popular Republican in party history 93%?" Hannity later echoed, "Hate-Trump Dems' agenda is a big show. They will never convict the president on impeachment", and Sarah Sanders told Fox, “The only reason they want to come after this president is because they know they can’t beat him. […] You’re not going to impeach this president when he’s had two of the most successful years that any president has had in modern history,” Sanders said on Fox News.. They've presumably done the political calculus and determined they need to push the issue now to politicize it and freeze it, hoping their supporters want to fight over it as badly as those on the Democratic side (n.b. a recent CNN poll shows support for it has dropped since September).

Many Dems don't want to overplay their hand, however, on Day 2 of the new Congress. Politico's Rachael Bade: "Many House Dems are unhappy with this @RashidaTlaib comment last night. Say it makes Dems look like they’re gonna impeach trump only for politics instead of letting the investigations speak for themselves, then deciding ->", and Meet the Press: "NEW: Speaker Pelosi says impeachment is "divisive" but colleague's coarse language no worse than Trump's" nbcnews.to/2CPBVqk.

Marcy Wheeler takes a long view—"if we do get to the point where indictment or impeachment became viable (and I’m not sure we will)"—and looks at the practical options of actually getting Trump out of the White House: Impeachment and the Narcissist’s Off-Ramp
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:44 AM on January 4, 2019 [9 favorites]

The url is passing through WaPo's image resizer, so just pull that out and the high resolution image is here. Still grainy/blurry but totally something I could imagine matlab cleaning up, as BungaDunga says.

It's grainy enough I'm not sure if something like matlab would be able to handle it.

On the other hand, humans are really good at pattern recognition to the point of recognizing patterns even when they don't exist, so we'll probably be able to get a bunch of it. For example the first line is pretty clearly "XXXX XXXXXXXXX, President of the United States of America, Donald Trump." Then the illegible (to me) XXXX part is repeated again and is from context some sort of salutation.

My brain wants to see it as "Your Highness" but there's that seeing-patterns-when-there-are-none thing again.
posted by Justinian at 8:45 AM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

I believe the letter addresses DJT as "Your Excellency" (and now I have to go brush the taste of vomit out of my mouth).

I'd love to see a parody transcription of that blurry letter, bad lip-reading style.
posted by Westringia F. at 8:48 AM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

> "XXXX XXXXXXXXX, President of the United States of America, Donald Trump."

That's clearly "Your Excellency". Now you can see it too.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:48 AM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

Wait, so it really is some sort of inappropriate salutation which makes him out to be royalty? I thought I was seeing things.
posted by Justinian at 8:48 AM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

I also think it's "Your Excellency". It's repeated again on the fourth line on the right and is the same size, but a bit more clearly.

The first line looks like it reads "... summit in Singapore this past XXXX and the year XX XXX". The first part of the sentence could be "It has been 100 days since the [something something something] summit" etc, but I'm just guessing.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:51 AM on January 4, 2019

It's not entirely unheard of, FWIW.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 8:51 AM on January 4, 2019

Next line ends "...summit in Singapore this past June and the year xx xxx..." then "...when I firmly held Your Excellency's hand at that..." and "...with great interest and hope to relive the..."

Next paragraph: "excellent relationship with a..." and further down you can see "...between myself and Your Excellency..."
posted by rikschell at 8:52 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

"Your Excellency" is a common form of address for Presidents / national leaders, not royalty (but often used for consorts, or royalty who have abdicated their titles)
posted by Etrigan at 8:53 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

How Trump’s pride could drag out the shutdown for a long, long time (Aaron Blake, WaPo)

I wouldn't say pride so much as vanity and enormous insecurity, with possibly misogyny thrown in.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:54 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

"Many House Dems are unhappy with this @RashidaTlaib comment last night. Say it makes Dems look like they’re gonna impeach trump only for politics instead of letting the investigations speak for themselves, then deciding "

Any elected Democrat still worried about "looking political" is worse than useless. Impeachment happens for whatever reason Congress says it's happening and the motherfucker has given us one million perfectly acceptable reasons for impeachment already. Politics are a method of seizing governmental power as an alternative to war and revolution, not the practice of maintaining blatantly nonexistent stability in the face of annihilation. The weakness is incredible.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:55 AM on January 4, 2019 [71 favorites]

See also WaPo: Trump, once fiery on Twitter, warms to old-fashioned mash notes from Kim Jong Un

Trump is so smitten that he privately shows off the notes to guests in the Oval Office, summoning an aide to bring in two stacks of papers — one set in Korean and another translated into English, according to those who have seen them.

The letters contain flowery praise, employing honorifics such as “Your Excellency,” which Kim used in a July 6 note that Trump released publicly. Kim touted Trump’s “energetic and extraordinary efforts” and lauded the “epochal progress” of the bilateral relationship.

Former U.S. diplomats scoffed at the idea that Kim’s letters are a sign of increasing personal trust and meaningful progress. Rather, they suggested, Kim has sized up his mark and showered the president with flattery to soften him up at the negotiating table.

posted by Doktor Zed at 8:56 AM on January 4, 2019 [24 favorites]

"...with great interest and hope to relive the..."

I think that's "...as the whole world watched with great interest and hope to relive the..." or "revive the"
posted by BungaDunga at 8:58 AM on January 4, 2019

Former U.S. diplomats scoffed at the idea that Kim’s letters are a sign of increasing personal trust and meaningful progress. Rather, they suggested, Kim has sized up his mark and showered the president with flattery to soften him up at the negotiating table.

I object strenuously to the implication that one must be a former U.S. diplomat to see the most obvious thing since Captain Obvious was promoted and moved to a staff job.
posted by Etrigan at 9:04 AM on January 4, 2019 [37 favorites]

Sen Pat Roberts [R - KS] to retire.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 AM on January 4, 2019 [20 favorites]

This will go over well: While federal workers go without pay, senior Trump administration officials are poised to get $10,000 raises. (WaPo)
Counter point: Federal workers — in a panic about their pay — apply for unemployment.
posted by peeedro at 9:06 AM on January 4, 2019 [30 favorites]

(Fascinating as it is, maybe we shouldn't parse that letter in real time.)

"You’re not going to impeach this president when he’s had two of the most successful years that any president has had in modern history,”

After only two years, hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed or working without pay, the national parks are filling up with shit and trash, refugees on the other side of the border are being tear-gassed while refugees on this side of the border are being held in internment camps, stock exchanges around the world are cratering, the world's two biggest economies are caught in a trade war, democratic institutions worldwide are undergoing marginalization, organizations throughout the bureaucracy still remain without appointed leadership...

Nobody deserves two more years of this, not even us.
posted by notyou at 9:11 AM on January 4, 2019 [62 favorites]

> Sen Pat Roberts [R - KS] to retire.

And here I thought we'd seen the last of Kris Kobach, the earliest Trump admin "hold papers that can be read in a photo" guy.

(See? It's megathread synchronicity!)
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:15 AM on January 4, 2019

How about a separate post for translating blurry photographs of documents rather than sucking up space here?
posted by W Grant at 9:16 AM on January 4, 2019 [27 favorites]

> "You’re not going to impeach this president when he’s had two of the most successful years that any president has had in modern history,”

Trump's presidency *has* been a great success. Just, you know, not for the United States.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:27 AM on January 4, 2019 [21 favorites]

Elections have consequences, New sheriffs in town as African Americans win top law enforcement posts in N.C. (WaPo):

Three days after he was sworn in as Durham County’s new sheriff last month, Clarence Birkhead ended his department’s cooperative relationship with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Within a week, Birkhead’s staff rebuffed ICE 11 times, releasing immigrants from the county jail rather than holding them for the federal agency to pick up as a first step toward deportation.

Other new sheriffs were doing much the same. In Mecklenburg and Wake counties, North Carolina’s largest jurisdictions, they notified ICE their offices would no longer participate in the federal program that delegates immigration enforcement to local agencies.

The collective snub was the first move in a looming upheaval in how the state’s urban sheriffs do their job. This fall, all seven of the most populous counties elected African Americans as their top law enforcement officer — not just a reflection of the shifting dynamics here but a sharp break from the nation’s historic pattern of picking white men for the position and then keeping them there in perpetuity.

posted by peeedro at 9:35 AM on January 4, 2019 [55 favorites]

Raw Story: Pence & Trump in line for pay raise while federal workers go without pay. And I didn't think my outrage meter went any higher.
posted by yoga at 9:36 AM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

^ Pay Raise BS also on WaPo.
posted by yoga at 9:37 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti May Run for President - The Atlantic

AKA, How to Run for President While You’re Running a City

By virtue of the city’s political system, the mayor of Los Angeles is weaker than those of other big cities. Much of the power is vested in the city council and in the Los Angeles County supervisors. But Garcetti still has significant responsibilities that would be complicated by a presidential bid

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:38 AM on January 4, 2019

Wait, so it really is some sort of inappropriate salutation which makes him out to be royalty? I thought I was seeing things.

Excellency (literal translation from the Latin: standing out) is the salutation for commoners who have been elevated to high office.
posted by ocschwar at 9:54 AM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

It's how you address ambassadors, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:57 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

Doktor Zed: @realDonaldTrump jumped on the impeachment issue first thing this morning

As stated by John Whitbeck, the chairman of Virginia's Republican Party, on NPR on May 2nd, 2018: "If the Democrats take the House, they will impeach this president. And it's coming, if they have the majority."

The GOP was using this as a warning to their base last year, why not turn their threat into our promise. "The GOP wanted us to impeach the president if we got majority in the House. Now that we have it, we'll proceed as they wished."
posted by filthy light thief at 9:59 AM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

Rashida Tlaib on Donald Trump: We will 'impeach the mother****er' (Brian Manzullo and Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press)

Rashida Tlaib, who earlier Thursday was sworn in as one of Michigan's new Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives, delivered a strong message to a group of supporters that night at an event for MoveOn.org, a progressive and social justice advocacy group.

Again, Tlaib, representing the 13th Congressional District that includes parts of Detroit and other communities in Wayne County, called for an impeachment of President Donald Trump. This time, she threw in an expletive.

"People love you. And you win," she told a cheering crowd in a 20-second video published on Twitter. "And when your son looks at you and says, 'Momma, look you won, bullies don’t win.' And I said, 'Baby, they don't.'

"Because we’re gonna go in there and we're gonna impeach the mother****er."

Dems livid after Tlaib vows to ‘impeach the motherf—er’ (Rachel Bade, Heather Cagle and John Bresnahan; Politico)

House Democrats are furious that an incoming freshman’s expletive-riddled statement about impeaching Donald Trump has suddenly upended their carefully crafted rhetoric on their plans to take on the president.
…
Rank-and-file Democrats, immediately fearful of the damage the comment could cause, unloaded on their new colleague Friday morning. Republicans, they argued, would hold it up as proof that Democrats were playing politics rather than pursuing genuine oversight of the president — even if the GOP never showed interest in investigating Trump scandals while they were in power.
…
Even California Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, who introduced an impeachment resolution earlier this week [story link], was shocked. His eyes bulged in disbelief when a reporter read him Tlaib’s comments and he was speechless for several seconds.

After he regained his composure, Sherman said that kind of language was detrimental to the cause: “That’s not language I would use…I think the office of the presidency should be treated with respect.”

Party elders also sought to calm talk of impeachment without criticizing Tlaib directly. Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.), the new chairman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, called Talib’s comments “inappropriate” and said, “We need to be patient.”

“You can’t accomplish very much of anything unless you have civility and show respect for your colleagues,” Cummings said. “Those kind of comments do not take us in the right direction.”

Pelosi said while she didn’t agree with the language, she also didn’t think anyone “should make a big deal” about the expletive, noting the president is also known for having a foul mouth sometimes.

“I'm not in the censorship business. I don't like that language, I wouldn't use that language, but I wouldn't establish language standards for my colleagues,” Pelosi said during an MSNBC town hall Friday morning.

She added that impeachment is “very divisive“ and shouldn’t be taken “without the facts.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:11 AM on January 4, 2019 [19 favorites]

The letters contain flowery praise, employing honorifics such as “Your Excellency,” which Kim used in a July 6 note that Trump released publicly. Kim touted Trump’s “energetic and extraordinary efforts” and lauded the “epochal progress” of the bilateral relationship.

Former U.S. diplomats scoffed at the idea that Kim’s letters are a sign of increasing personal trust and meaningful progress. Rather, they suggested, Kim has sized up his mark and showered the president with flattery to soften him up at the negotiating table.

I know this should make feel bad but overall I am cool with this because it shows that Kim is a somewhat rational actor and it is good to have at least one of those in a negotiation around the use of nuclear weapons.
posted by srboisvert at 10:18 AM on January 4, 2019 [12 favorites]

Say it makes Dems look like they’re gonna impeach trump only for politics instead of letting the investigations speak for themselves

Impeachment (and afterwards, conviction) is 100% a political process. Trump could get convicted of capital murder and still retain his office if votes to convict in the Senate aren't there. Pelosi and the Dem leadership know this, and the incoming Congressional reps will have to learn it, apparently.
posted by sideshow at 10:18 AM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

Newly-elected House Speaker Nancy Pelosi addressed the U.S. House of Representatives Thursday after Democrats officially took control of the legislative body, invoking two Presidents while laying out her leadership agenda. -- Both were Republican. Neither was President Donald Trump. (TIME Magazine with the transcript, posted Jan. 3, 2018)

Pelosi Sets Out Priorities, Quotes Reagan (C-SPAN video), and chides GOP for not clapping for their Saint Ronnie (CNN video, which includes footage of sullen, white, man-children with their arms crossed, some smirking at Pelosi's comment).

She quoted Reagan's Remarks at the Presentation Ceremony for the Presidential Medal of Freedom (transcript at UCSB's fantastic The American Presidency Project).

Here's an extended clip from those remarks:

Yes, the torch of Lady Liberty symbolizes our freedom and represents our heritage, the compact with our parents, our grandparents, and our ancestors. It is that lady who gives us our great and special place in the world. For it's the great life force of each generation of new Americans that guarantees that America's triumph shall continue unsurpassed into the next century and beyond. Other countries may seek to compete with us; but in one vital area, as a beacon of freedom and opportunity that draws the people of the world, no country on Earth comes close.

This, I believe, is one of the most important sources of America's greatness. We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people—our strength-from every country and every corner of the world. And by doing so we continuously renew and enrich our nation. While other countries cling to the stale past, here in America we breathe life into dreams. We create the future, and the world follows us into tomorrow. Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we're a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier. This quality is vital to our future as a nation. If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.

Emphasis to note the part that Pelosi quoted, which the GOP decided not to support.

Here's more from Pelosi:

This House will take action on overdue legislation that has bipartisan support in the Congress and across the country:

We will make our communities safer and keep our sacred promise to the victims, survivors and families of gun violence by passing commonsense bipartisan background check legislation.

We will make America fairer by passing the Equality Act to end discrimination against LGBTQ Americans.

And we will make America more American by protecting our patriotic, courageous Dreamers!

As President Reagan said in his last speech as president: “If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.”

Our common cause is to find and forge a way forward for our country. Let us stand for the people – to promote liberty and justice for all;

And always, always to keep our nation safe from threats old and new, from terrorism and cyberwarfare, from overseas and here at home.

That is the oath we all take: to protect and defend.

I close by remembering a cherished former Member of this body, who rose to become a beloved President, and who, last month, returned once more to lie in state.

That week, we honored President George Herbert Walker Bush with eulogies, tributes and tears.

Today, I single out one of his great achievements – working with both Democrats and Republicans to write the Americans With Disabilities Act into the laws of our land.

She did not mention Trump’s name, or even make direct reference to him, so Time makes sure to name him and include links to other Trumpy articles, repeatedly.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:23 AM on January 4, 2019 [24 favorites]

Jason Meisner, Chicago Tribune: Feds charge Ald. Edward Burke, allege wiretap on cellphone captures him in attempted extortion

Longtime Ald. Edward Burke, one of Chicago’s most powerful figures and a vestige of the city’s old Democratic machine, has often been considered too clever and sophisticated to be caught blatantly using his public office to enrich himself.

His law firm used to do the taxes for Trump Org.
posted by Surely This at 10:24 AM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

only to have a new colleague with no experience in this particular game blow it because she was feeling the crowd.

"The crowd" is the Democratic voter base plus enough non-voters to win the presidency. 43% of US adults support impeachment right now, today. 27% of US adults voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 2016. I wonder how much of the crowd pay-go speaks to.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:30 AM on January 4, 2019 [34 favorites]

a unified, disciplined approach — you know, the extremely effective approach that allowed the Republicans to destroy everything in just a few years?

In other news, Steve King is still a member of Congress.

Yeah, maybe don't say that on your very first day at work. Not because you don't want to impeach the motherfucker, but because the DC press will ignore the piles of trash and shuttered NPS facilities they pass by on their way to work to ask you about a swear.
posted by holgate at 10:31 AM on January 4, 2019 [20 favorites]

I mean, it’s kind of annoying, once you’ve worked out a detailed plan amongst like 250 people, all of whom have different needs and represent different districts, and which depends very much in places on a unified, disciplined approach — you know, the extremely effective approach that allowed the Republicans to destroy everything in just a few years? — only to have a new colleague with no experience in this particular game blow it because she was feeling the crowd.

This only works if everyone actually has the same goals. The slips in discipline among left Democrats reflect their belief that the party leadership is not aligned with their goals. Of course it is possible to be more and less strategic in these maneuvers. AOC joining a protest at Pelosi's office but ultimately supporting Pelosi seems more strategic (from the current vantage, anyway).
posted by grobstein at 10:35 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Correction to my link above ^ -
The comment was in a twit, and written about here
posted by growabrain at 10:44 AM on January 4, 2019

CNN's Manu Raju has shutdown negotiation updates from the Dem leadership:

Pelosi calls it a "lengthy" and "sometimes contentious" conversation with Trump at the White House. She says Democrats can't have discussions over other matters until the government is reopened.

Schumer: "We made a plea to the president once again .... 'Open up the government and let's continue our discussions.'"

Schumer says Trump is prepared to keep govt closed for "MONTHS OR EVEN YEARS"

posted by Doktor Zed at 10:46 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

The slips in discipline among left Democrats reflect their belief that the party leadership is not aligned with their goals

Lolnope. No team of individuals ever has perfectly aligned goals, but you agree to work together to get stuff done. A “slip of discipline” isn’t a strategic or tactical move by definition; it’s a product of arrogance or a failure to regulate emotion or what the fuck ever, but don’t pretend this is the Left vs Democrats again. This was just dumb. On day one of the brand new job she might not totally know how to do yet.

None of these people know how to be in the spotlight yet. Other people, with more experience, do, and the learning curve is steep. AOC has only barely kept ahead of it and that was with making some pretty obvious mistakes early on.

Seriously, neither media skills nor political manuevering is a born skill. It’s just infuriating when Dems have so little respect for the collective experience of their new colleagues that they do obviously stupid shit like this. It’s infuriating because it’s stupid.

Who knows how this particular incident will shake out. Pretty much the only outcome I’d be willing to be on is that everyone in the Dem caucus now thinks twice about trusting her with anything. So. That’s great for her constituents.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:46 AM on January 4, 2019 [28 favorites]

Stuart Anderson, Forbes: Where The Idea For Donald Trump's Wall Came From

Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border did not come from security analysts following years of study or through evidence that a wall would reduce illegal immigration. Amazingly, for something so central to the current U.S. president, the wall came about as a “mnemonic device” thought up by a pair of political consultants to remind Donald Trump to talk about illegal immigration.

In 2014, Trump’s plan to run for president moved into high gear. His political confidant was consultant Roger Stone. “Inside Trump’s circle, the power of illegal immigration to manipulate popular sentiment was readily apparent, and his advisers brainstormed methods for keeping their attention-addled boss on message,” writes Joshua Green, author of Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Nationalist Uprising. “They needed a trick, a mnemonic device. In the summer of 2014, they found one that clicked.”

"The Wall" was just a mnemonic device to jog Trump's memory...
posted by Surely This at 10:49 AM on January 4, 2019 [34 favorites]

Lolnope. No team of individuals ever has perfectly aligned goals, but you agree to work together to get stuff done. A “slip of discipline” isn’t a strategic or tactical move by definition; it’s a product of arrogance or a failure to regulate emotion or what the fuck ever, but don’t pretend this is the Left vs Democrats again.

How convenient that energized left elements have to subordinate themselves to more conservative incumbents, but it's strictly about skill and experience and has nothing to do with ideology or goals.
posted by grobstein at 10:51 AM on January 4, 2019 [27 favorites]

"The Wall" was just a mnemonic device to jog Trump's memory...

I'm not sure if that's better or worse than what I've always assumed, which is that it was something he threw out while freelancing at a rally somewhere and kept saying because it got applause.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 10:54 AM on January 4, 2019 [11 favorites]

Dems have to pearl-clutch over other Dems throwing red meat, because they don't think the meat-throwers can get away with it. Meanwhile the GOP has become nothing but meat, a literal party made of meat.
posted by rikschell at 10:54 AM on January 4, 2019 [64 favorites]

It hit me this morning that everything about this situation would be exactly the same if Trump was asking for $5 billion deposited directly into his bank account
posted by theodolite at 10:55 AM on January 4, 2019 [35 favorites]

How convenient that energized left elements have to subordinate themselves to more conservative incumbents, but it's strictly about skill and experience and has nothing to do with ideology or goals.

Politics has to be the only occupation on earth where "extreme lack of experience" is seen as some sort of benefit, and "being effective at one's job" is automatically disqualifying.
posted by sideshow at 10:55 AM on January 4, 2019 [42 favorites]

I don't get the sense that impeaching Trump is any more of a goal of new left representatives than it is for their more conservative fellow Democrats, but I think this is a fight worth having because we're definitely going to see this dynamic arise over issues like healthcare pretty soon. I know that the more conservative members of the Democratic Party are going to work overtime to discredit Medicare for All and paint it as the unreasonable, unstrategic option compared to whatever neoliberal market-based compromise they're paid to support. I hope that when this happens, we can remember that this is a difference in ideology, not actually in strategy or practicality.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 10:57 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

Dude, you know nothing of my ideology or goals, which I assure you have a lot more Nazi hunting in them than yours do (at least I hope so; if I’m the norm we’re in trouble).

I do, however, know something about brokering and getting shit done, and this was, in fact, very, very stupid. Because now we’re all talking about this dumb thing, rather than hammering the Republicans on their idiotic shut down.

If you don’t know how to function as part of a team, perhaps a political party isn’t for you.

Or run as an independent. One or the other. But this is bullshit.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:58 AM on January 4, 2019 [12 favorites]

“That’s not language I would use…I think the office of the presidency should be treated with respect.”

I think so too, which is why we need to impeach the impeach the mother****er.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:59 AM on January 4, 2019 [56 favorites]

Because now we’re all talking about this dumb thing

Request that we cease doing so.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:00 AM on January 4, 2019 [43 favorites]

The subtle strategy and political genius instincts of the old guard of the Democratic Party led to abject defeat on every front. I'm willing to give swearing and saying the quiet parts out loud a try.
posted by diogenes at 11:02 AM on January 4, 2019 [56 favorites]

God can we not with the circular firing squad? May I remind you that the other party got pretty damn close to electing a known pedophile, and is still chock full of people known to sexually harass, canoodle with Russian mobsters, lock babies in cages, and do other horrific things?

Turning on our own for throwing an f-bomb? What the fuck? Who GIVES a fuck? The world is burning down, and that's much more motherfucking important than some goddamned people caring about "decorum" in the goddamned House of motherfucking Representatives.

Also: may I present to you Lyndon B. "cursed all the goddamn time like a motherfucking sailor" Johnson, as an example of someone who was far from ineffective even with a famous potty mouth.

Jesus.
posted by emjaybee at 11:02 AM on January 4, 2019 [110 favorites]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Responds to Her Dance Haters With Even More Dancing – Mother Jones

The inept attempt to create a controversy also sparked the birth of the Twitter account “AOC Dances to Every Song,” which remixed the clip of her dancing to a slew of different songs

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:04 AM on January 4, 2019 [18 favorites]

If it makes people feel better, I will happily pledge $5 toward a "swear jar" fund to like, the Abortion Care Network or the Black Love Bailout or the Democratic Socialists every time a Democrat says naughty words
posted by duffell at 11:05 AM on January 4, 2019 [20 favorites]

Politics has to be the only occupation on earth where "extreme lack of experience" is seen as some sort of benefit, and "being effective at one's job" is automatically disqualifying.

Not at all.

The issue is, competence by itself is not valuable. Competence needs to be channeled to worthy goals. "Shut up about your goals and let the competent people be competent," is bad advice, unless the competent people already pretty much share your goals.

A lot of people who thought the competent people shared their goals don't think that anymore. (They're also wondering if the competence of the competent people might have been a little overstated, since these are the same competent people who presided over the last 10 years.) In that situation, you have to either try to change the goals of the competent people, or replace them with new people who you hope will eventually be competent (or a bit of both).

Suppose you're a popular but junior elected with a lot of visibility. Because of your lack of seniority, you can't change the goals of the competent people by working quietly from within. Instead, you have to use your visibility and popularity. You hope that, if your goals are popular, you can embarrass the competent people into shifting towards them.

This is what AOC has accomplished with the "Green New Deal" concept. A little bit of public acting-out, and suddenly this phrase is on the lips of almost every visible Democrat. That's what I mean when I describe departures from discipline as "strategic." If you're inclined to call this "arrogant," "stupid," "a failure to regulate emotion", despite its manifest effectiveness, I'm going to suspect you actually disagree with the goals.
posted by grobstein at 11:06 AM on January 4, 2019 [32 favorites]

Politics has to be the only occupation on earth where "extreme lack of experience" is seen as some sort of benefit, and "being effective at one's job" is automatically disqualifying.

I dunno, the "being effective at one's job" part here assumes facts not in evidence given the party's track record over the last 50 years. Impeachment, as everyone loves to say, is a political process, and needs a groundswell of popular support before senators from the President's own party can even consider voting him out. Is it necessarily a bad thing for the leftmost wing of the opposition party to be talking openly ad vociferously about what we all privately agree is necessary? How do we build popular support for impeachment if we continue to treat it as some unmentionable power word?
posted by contraption at 11:07 AM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

The problem is that the goal of impeachment arguably gets us nowhere. With the senate obviously acquitting Trump of all charges, some people think the optics of impeachment are a lose-lose for Democrats. I mean, we all really do want the same thing in this case: Trump out of office. But a good case can be made that impeachment is a loss. A good case can be made that it's a win, too, but I don't think ideology or left/center has much to do with it.
posted by rikschell at 11:11 AM on January 4, 2019 [8 favorites]

The swearing isn't the problem, it's the call for impeachment. As really, it's not like the man has been daily violating something regarding foreign influence peddling that is easily verifiable and openly admitted.
posted by Slackermagee at 11:15 AM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

I think this is a real phenomenon we're discussing, but I think it applies more to the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, and other socialist priorities rather than the question of impeachment. Broadly, I think socialists view impeachment as basically as much of a priority as the establishment does; I don't see a significant difference of opinion on the subject between the two groups.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 11:15 AM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

I, for one, would fucking love it if the Democrats would stop freaking out over a bit of naughty language and would talk about important things like how the entire fucking planet is burning and we're got to make deep structural changes if we want to survive.

I'd like to remind everyone that the mealy mouthed, spineless, triangulating on everything, strategy of the Democrats has been steadily losing elections for my entire life, so maybe it isn't the genius maneuver Speaker Pelosi would like us to pretend it is?
posted by sotonohito at 11:16 AM on January 4, 2019 [34 favorites]

The issue is, competence by itself is not valuable.

Right, and neither is ideological purity or whatever you want to call it.

I dunno, the "being effective at one's job" part here assumes facts not in evidence given the party's track record over the last 50 years.

Sorry, no, this is a convenient bit of handwaving. We're not talking about Joe Lieberman and Bill Clinton's triangulation; we're talking, specifically, about a Dem house majority under Nancy Pelosi. Is anyone going to seriously argue that Nancy Pelosi is "ineffective"?

There's this weird thing where people seem to conflate process with policy goals, and it often seems like a poor disguise for just, you know, tribalism. I like this person and she said something I agree with, so it's not wrong! (And as it happens, "impeach the motherfucker" does not really go far enough for me, personally, but again, we're not discussing my vindictive streak.) Except goals are not the same as process. You can have the right goals and completely fuck up the process by which you might accomplish them because you don't know what you're doing. You can say something true and still have it be a completely boneheaded mistake in the context of trying to accomplish those goals.

The Dems in general have been slowly moving the Overton window on impeachment and criminal prosecution in a careful, coordinated way. Their messaging has been deliberate. But they have more than one thing on their plate. And when you are trying to prevent a collapse into fascism while also avoiding an economic collapse (shit's not looking good!), when you are juggling that many balls in the air, you need to be organized and disciplined.

Imagine Leroy Jenkins on D-Day. Come on.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:16 AM on January 4, 2019 [22 favorites]

I mean, there's tension between "not being enmeshed in the power structure" and "having experience and connections which help you get things done" which often gets read as "lacking experience versus being effective". The more enmeshed in the system you get, the more your career is the system, the more you can work the angles but the more your values become the values of the system. This is a structural problem, not an individual problem, and it could be solved by:

1. End of rule by the rich, because this would align the values of the political class more with the values of the majority. The rich are different, and even the best of them don't have a strong sense for the needs of the majority because they don't have to worry about that stuff.

2. Changing the rewards of being in government so that it's less attractive to the greedy as a career. Having career politicians is useful because of institutional memory, but we want more churn than we have now and we want people to stay in government because they care about it, not because it's a way to help out their rich cronies.

3. Change the way elections work so that the two common campaign themes stop being "I'll get things done!" and "I'm not part of that Beltway crowd" - stop dark money and corporate money, create more structures for primaries, town halls and debates, fund elections rather than relying on fund-raising, etc.

Honestly, I think we're going to need a lot more "inexperienced" politicians before those three things happen, though, because there will need to be a coalition between the non-enmeshed and such affluent politicians as are willing to work on these issues. We're only going to end rule by the rich when we can get enough of a majority to actually enact laws and policies to end it, and that means we have to actually elect a lot of non-rich people with the right political commitments first. For this reason, among others, I am enthused about AOC and the other new lefter Democrats.
posted by Frowner at 11:19 AM on January 4, 2019 [27 favorites]

2. Changing the rewards of being in government so that it's less attractive to the greedy as a career.

I would propose a lifetime ban (or, fine, 15 years or something) on lobbying once you leave Congress and a similar ban on working in the industry you were regulating for Cabinet members and senior regulators.
posted by Justinian at 11:22 AM on January 4, 2019 [20 favorites]

In terms of the specific phrasing, Impeach The Motherfucker is part of a very popular grassroots slogan, not something she came up with off the top of her head.
posted by contraption at 11:23 AM on January 4, 2019 [8 favorites]

Donald Trump's campaign and presidency have been shot through with hateful rhetoric against Muslims and attempts to enforce horrendous policies specifically aimed against Muslims. The idea that somehow Tlaib should be decorous and respectful toward that man is ludicrous, because if there's one thing you can count on, he sure as hell won't be decorous and respectful toward her. He earned that epithet and far worse. If I were her I'm not sure I could actually address that jackass by name and might just refer to him exclusively as "motherfucker" in casual and official communications.
posted by Sublimity at 11:32 AM on January 4, 2019 [60 favorites]

"Ran into a fact-checker colleague at the Post who looked tired. "How's it going?" I said. "I'm still working on that Cabinet meeting from yesterday," he said, walking back to his desk."

Washington Post has published their assessment of Trump's salvo of bullshit: Fact-checking Trump’s Freewheeling Cabinet Session. "President Trump’s 90-minute Cabinet session was a fact-checking nightmare, with sentence after sentence uttered by the president false or misleading. We will eventually cover every line in our comprehensive database, which now has 7,645 claims, but many of his lines are simply golden oldies we have fact-checked before. So here we will focus mainly on the newly wrong things he said, in the order in which he said them."

Meanwhile, in shutdown news, Trump and Pence held their own post-negotiation press conference, during which Trump confirmed Schumer's "months or years" comment: "I did say that, absolutely I said that. I don’t think it will but I am prepared and I think that I can speak for Republicans in the House and Republicans in the Senate they feel very strongly about having a safe country".
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:34 AM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

This might have been a great move by Talib, actually. It's not like the Rs weren't going to attack a muslim woman, now they do it in the perpetual context of discussing whether the President* is a motherfucker. LBJ and his pigs would be proud.

Intentional or not, the silver lining is that this is an excellent trial balloon to take the country's temperature on impeachment. If it doesn't go over well yet, it's easily dismissed as the overzealousness of a freshman congressperson. If it does, they get to onboard that momentum the same way they incorporated the New Green Deal after the NDP/AOC "conflict" during orientation.
posted by Freon at 11:37 AM on January 4, 2019 [69 favorites]

Rashida Tlaib sounds like she's taking a page out of Dock 'We gonna get down! We gonna do the do! I'm going to hit these motherfuckers!' Ellis' playbook, which is alright by me.

Sometimes you need to fire your team up, even if it means hitting some Reds.
posted by whuppy at 11:37 AM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

feel very strongly about having a safe country

imagine feeling so strongly about having a "safe country" that you're willing to completely paralyze the entire infrastructure in place to guarantee that country's continued existence.

for years.
posted by murphy slaw at 11:37 AM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

"I did say that, absolutely I said that. I don’t think it will but I am prepared and I think that I can speak for Republicans in the House and Republicans in the Senate they feel very strongly about having a safe country".

It became necessary to destroy the town to save it.
posted by Quindar Beep at 11:38 AM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Y’all, this press conference is insane and Kevin McCarthy looks like he’s having a silent meltdown behind Trump, and I suppose it will end up politically advantageous that Trump is fully and openly owning the shutdown, but I have never in my life seen a U.S. president express such callous disregard for anyone and everyone who is not himself. He will let people starve to get his wall funding, quite literally. This is the press conference of a monster in human skin.
posted by LooseFilter at 11:38 AM on January 4, 2019 [44 favorites]

Rashida Tlaib sounds like she's taking a page out of Dock 'We gonna get down! We gonna do the do! I'm going to hit these motherfuckers!' Ellis' playbook, which is alright by me.

the same dock ellis who pitched a no-hitter high as a kite on acid, which may or may not be apposite to the current situation depending on your take on the proceedings (and on acid)
posted by murphy slaw at 11:39 AM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

How Trump’s pride could drag out the shutdown for a long, long time (Aaron Blake, WaPo)

This shutdown is more about McConnell than Trump. McConnell knows the new House funding bill would pass if he brought it up. He won't.

We don't know whether Republicans would override an actual Trump veto, McConnell has never let the nation find out. But I suspect if he did we'd get a lot more crossover support for Republicans than you might think, after the same bill passed 100-0 a week ago.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:40 AM on January 4, 2019 [23 favorites]

imagine feeling so strongly about having a "safe country" that you're willing to completely paralyze the entire infrastructure in place to guarantee that country's continued existence.

It's pretty much textbook behavior for an abuser in a relationship to claim they're doing something destructive for your own good. DTMFA 2020
posted by cmfletcher at 11:44 AM on January 4, 2019 [38 favorites]

Trump's Rose Garden rambling is another embarrassing escapade. Jeesh.
posted by Harry Caul at 11:46 AM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

"We had to ~~dest~~ shut the country down in order to save it."
posted by uosuaq at 11:46 AM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

Frowner: "2. Changing the rewards of being in government so that it's less attractive to the greedy as a career. Having career politicians is useful because of institutional memory, but we want more churn than we have now and we want people to stay in government because they care about it, not because it's a way to help out their rich cronies. "

This is the exact sort of evidence-free "drain the swamp" rhetoric that's been going around for the past 30 years.

There's no reason why a career in government shouldn't be lucrative -- we want our best and brightest to be the ones running the country.

I'll gladly get behind almost any anti-corruption policy you put in front of me, but if we clean house just for the sake of cleaning house, we're only going to attract more of the same.
posted by schmod at 11:48 AM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

It's time to just troll the motherfucker.

Draft and pass a bill that funds the wall but also requires the IRS to dig out and disclose the president's tax rreturns, and divest from commercial real estate inside DC, and so on.
posted by ocschwar at 11:51 AM on January 4, 2019 [38 favorites]

The National Parks aren't just filling up with trash and human shit, a man died after falling from Yosemite's Nevada Fall on Christmas Day:

It’s a remarkable testament to the professionalism and capability of park rangers that they managed to reach the remote corner of the park and provide medical aid in under an hour. During the shutdown, only about 50 park service staff are working in the park, down from the usual 800-plus. On top of that, with the gates open free of charge and a park that's experiencing beautiful winter weather, people have been flooding into Yosemite. One of the sources I spoke with, who asked to remain anonymous in order to maintain a good relationship with the National Park Service, told me the park appears to be at or near its maximum capacity.

Given a fully staffed park, could rangers have reached the victim sooner? Would a ranger have been able to prevent the accident by warning the victim of hazardous conditions? It’s impossible to know. But it’s also entirely reasonable to come to the conclusion that our national parks are less safe right now for the simple reason that more than 80 percent of the people tasked with keeping them safe are currently furloughed. And we know for sure that the investigation into the causes of the man’s death is being hampered by the shutdown, according to [National Park Service public affairs officer Andrew] Muñoz.

posted by peeedro at 11:58 AM on January 4, 2019 [25 favorites]

Y’all, this press conference is insane and Kevin McCarthy looks like he’s having a silent meltdown behind Trump

Trump's having one out loud, and the newly returned Daniel Dale's live-tweeting it:

—Trump is doing a lengthy Trump monologue about immigration. Sample: "Children are the biggest beneficiaries of what we want to do." "Three or four women with tape on their mouths, and they're tied up..." "Brand new walls. Beautiful walls. Steel walls."
—Trump in conclusion: "The southern border is a dangerous, horrible disaster. We've done a great job. But you can't really do the kind of job we have to do unless you have a major, powerful barrier."
—Asked if he is still proud to own the shutdown, Trump says, "I'm very proud of doing what I'm doing. I don't call it a shutdown."
—Trump said he asked Pelosi, today, "why don't you use this for impeachment?" (?) He said, "Nancy said, 'We're not looking to impeach you,'" and he said he responded, "That's good, Nancy, that's good."
—Trump on Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib's profane vow to impeach him: "I think she dishonoured herself, and I think she dishonoured her family. Using language like that in front of her son..."
—Trump repeats his false claim that "China is paying us tremendous tariffs." While many Chinese manufacturers eat some of the tariff costs, they are paid by American importers of Chinese products.
—For the third time, Trump falsely boasts that his meeting with Xi in Argentina lasted "almost four hours." He left the meeting site less than three hours after the meeting started.
—Trump repeats his regular false claim that Apple is investing $350B in the US because of his tax law. The company's announcement was pretty vague, but experts say more than $250B of that was regularly planned operations spending.
—Asked about a "safety net" for federal workers who are going without pay and need the money, Trump says, "The safety net is going to be having a strong border."

And Trump's decided to start another fight with CNN:

THR's Jeremy Barr: "Trump says "Oh, here we go again" as Kaitlin Collins begins asking her question."

CNN's Kate Bennett: “. @kaitlancollins rightfully presses @realDonaldTrump on his promises of concrete wall, to which he (dismissively) responded: "I know you're not into the construction business, you don’t understand something. We now have a great steel business....steel is stronger than concrete."”

Mediaite's Evan Rosenfeld:

Trump: “I never said concrete wall”
@kaitlancollins: “you did say concrete”
Trump: “steel is stronger than concrete... it will be more powerful than any of the concrete walls” {w/video}

posted by Doktor Zed at 12:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [25 favorites]

Am I the only one who thinks the concrete-vs-steel thing is stupid? Who cares if he used to say concrete and now he says steel. It's not Obama's-tan-suit dumbness but... who cares.
posted by Justinian at 12:07 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

Who cares if somebody calls the President a motherfucker? The real problem is people who call this Motherfucker a President. (apologies to Redd Foxx)
posted by TwoToneRow at 12:12 PM on January 4, 2019 [104 favorites]

From a story by Associated Press writers Eileen Putman, Lisa Mascaro, Laurie Kellman, Kevin Freking, Alan Fram and Mary Clare Jalonick:

“We have bipartisan agreements on six of the remaining funding bills, and I’d like to see those signed into law,” [Senator Susan] Collins said. “Negotiations on border security should continue while a stopgap funding resolution is approved for the Department of Homeland Security.”

I’m sure the President and Senate Majority Leader care not one whit for what Senator Collins thinks. She handed them her Kavanaugh vote for absolutely nothing in return, and that’s exactly the thanks she’ll get. I’m sure she’s a smart woman, but we all have our blind spots. Hers appears to be recognizing when she does and doesn’t have leverage.
posted by wintermind at 12:13 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

This is the exact sort of evidence-free "drain the swamp" rhetoric that's been going around for the past 30 years.

The lucrative part of being in government isn't the salary, it's the chance to do favors for your crony capitalist buddies and the chance to juice your stock portfolio by supporting or voting down legislation. No one gets rich-rich on a government salary. If someone wants to draw a substantial but not bizarre salary in government for their entire life, that's fine with me. I'm just not interested in people with enormous fortunes who'll vote down Medicare for all, for instance, because it will disrupt the insurance industry, or who will vote for war because their stock portfolios are crammed with war stocks, or vote for privatizing legislation because they happen to be married to someone who will make a pile off of privatization. This isn't mysterious - it's what brought us attacks on Obamacare, it's what brought Brexit to the UK, it's what has brought privatization of government services everywhere.
posted by Frowner at 12:14 PM on January 4, 2019 [37 favorites]

Everyone single one of us has said "impeach the motherfucker," so we all agree with her, and are arguing over whether someone should say out loud something we all have said in private. But the claim that this somehow hurts the Democrats is, empirically speaking, mainly being made by centrist Democrats and the media outlets who traditionally share their views. This view is not at all universally shared, however: for instance, the entire right half of the spectrum, plus the far left, sincerely believes that there is a successful political strategy to be had in having a extreme wing (tea party, unnamed left wing) who says extreme things to shift the overton window right/left. The only folks who disagree with the wisdom of this strategy are centrist Dems, the few remaining never-Trumpers, and the TV heads.

This is not a circular firing squad, and that's not a minor meta-issue going forward. She fired at Trump, and then the Dem leadership (plus the media and Republicans) fired at her. I suspect we will see this pattern a lot as various members of the new left wing make extreme moves that are opposed by the leadership (eg, quietly replacing AOC's proposed committee with a potemkin version) -- but that is not circular. And yet, it should be. It is overall beneficial to have a left and centrist wing sparring with each other. It pushes the party leftward, and gives the media something to talk about, which only adds to publicity. "Our left-wing flank is slavering for impeachment, you have to give us something" is a great long-term strategy, and in no way is distracting given the absolute impossibility of single-message politics any more.
posted by chortly at 12:17 PM on January 4, 2019 [38 favorites]

Kevin McCarthy looks like he’s having a silent meltdown behind Trump

He's Steve now.

That was just a demented performance. Everybody who covers the White House knows that the brain worms are hungry, and nobody is willing to say it.
posted by holgate at 12:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

The lucrative part of being in government isn't the salary, it's the chance to do favors for your crony capitalist buddies and the chance to juice your stock portfolio by supporting or voting down legislation.

And increasing churn does nothing to fix that. What does are stronger anti-corruption laws, like forbidding sitting members of Congress from sitting on corporate boards, stronger divestment rules, and stopping the public-private revolving door.
posted by NoxAeternum at 12:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [8 favorites]

While I don't generally want the elected Democrats to be learning most of the lessons Trump has, it would be fucking amazing if they would just learn one, which is that the idea of politics having to be civil and respectful died decades ago, with the executioner's axe wielded more or less entirely by the right.

I'm not saying be un-civil and mean for no reason; I'm saying, if telling the truth about someone sounds mean or un-civil because that person is themselves mean or un-civil, fuck 'em, say what you gotta say. If expressing your justified anger means you have to sound angry, sound angry. And when predictably the right tries to hold you to a standard of decorum that they have literally spit upon for decades, laugh in their fucking faces and keep at it.
posted by tocts at 12:26 PM on January 4, 2019 [58 favorites]

And increasing churn does nothing to fix that. What does are stronger anti-corruption laws, like forbidding sitting members of Congress from sitting on corporate boards, stronger divestment rules, and stopping the public-private revolving door.

But inevitably, if we have fewer very wealthy people in Congress, there will be increasing churn because some percentage of the people who get elected will get tired of it and want to do something else, or decide that they can be more effective running a non-profit, or whatever.

And I'd like increased churn for its own sake, to be honest. Career politicians are important, yes, (although a properly funded career civil service is the real deal IYAM) but we shouldn't have a situation where law about, eg, youth issues should be made mostly by people who have been in office since 1980, or laws about landlords or other daily matters should be made by people who've made large salaries for the past 30 years, or laws about health insurance should be made by people who haven't had to think about their own health insurance since the Clinton administration. We need a balance between people who have procedural knowledge plus institutional memory and people who have lived, immediate experience of current economic and social conditions. Term limits might be one way to do this if structuring the incentives doesn't take care of it, but that means that there won't be any long, long term institutional memory and I think that's worth having.
posted by Frowner at 12:28 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

The bad president was talking about "the military version of eminent domain" and now he's explaining that he's considering calling a national emergency to build the wall without approval

Dang, I seem to recall conservatives freaking out when Obama was president about the idea of the military deploying to Texas, putting people in detention centers, and seizing private property by force. Jade something? I guess that was just a fever dream.
posted by bluecore at 12:29 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

What the Dem say about this stupid Tlaib kerfuffle

"blah blah decorum blah blah I don't agree with the language blah blah blah"

What they should say

"The person Rep. Tlaib was referring to owns a government shutdown that's caused 800,000, EIGHT HUNDRED THOUSAND, people to go without paychecks because he's throwing a temper tantrum about a wall that a clear majority of Americans DO. NOT. WANT. That's the person she was referring to. I think she's expressing frustration with that. Next question, provided it's something substantive about the President's completely unnecessary government shutdown."

It's not that hard! Take whatever question they throw about a news story that has no business being front page news and immediately turn it to the stupid shutdown. Lather, rinse, repeat.
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:31 PM on January 4, 2019 [103 favorites]

The plan is to wait for Mueller. It's not hard to understand. Just follow the plan.

Any plan that asks blind faith that Mueller or any other institutional representative will save us is not a good plan.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:32 PM on January 4, 2019 [58 favorites]

He's committed innuerable impeachable offenses, in public, that we know about, we don't have to "wait for Mueller".

- He communicates on an unsecured cell phone.
- He's violating the enulmounts clause in every conceivable fashion and directly stealing from the US taxpayers and openly taking foreign bribes.
- He burned a classified operation on live TV in front of known Russian intelligence operatives he invited into the White House
- HE'S PERSONALLY IMPLICATED AS AN UNINDICTED CO-CONSPIRATOR IN TWO SEPARATE FELONIES CONVICTIONS.

We're gonna impeach that motherfucker. And we don't even fucking need Mueller. So stop fucking language policing people who state the fucking facts.
posted by T.D. Strange at 12:35 PM on January 4, 2019 [83 favorites]

And I'd like increased churn for its own sake, to be honest.

Churn for churn's sake is a bad position, because we shouldn't do something because "it seems like the right thing", but because it will accomplish your objectives. As for the rest of your argument, the counterpoint is simple - the Tea Party. They did what you are calling for, and it turns out that they wound up being even worse, because churn isn't actually a solution.
posted by NoxAeternum at 12:37 PM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

Y’all need to chill on the “impeach the motherfucker” comment and come back down to just hating Trump. The guy shutdown the government bc he’s having a temper tantrum and now he’s talking about declaring a national emergency. How’s about we circle the topic of discussion toward “Can he actually do that? Let’s find out!”
posted by gucci mane at 12:40 PM on January 4, 2019 [13 favorites]

No, they ended up being terrible because they're the Tea Party - their whole ideology was predicated on being terrible. And they accomplished quite a few of their goals, including holding the entire GOP (and basically the country) hostage to a rabid minority. If we held this country hostage to a minority of democratic socialists there would be drawbacks and challenges but the results would be a lot better, even if popular understanding and buy-in would be a better way to achieve change.
posted by Frowner at 12:40 PM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

The plan is to wait for Mueller

Starting to agree with critics that Mueller has become Q for the hashtag-Resist crowd.
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:41 PM on January 4, 2019 [25 favorites]

Serious question: if the base supports a government shutdown and Trump's approval numbers don't drop do the GOP have any incentive to cave and override a veto?
posted by Tevin at 12:42 PM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

Agreeing with Frowner mid-edit: The Tea Party went from nothing to the presidency in under a decade. They are getting exactly what they want (chaos and owning the libs), first in Congress, then in the Presidency. The fact that they didn't want to build, only destroy, is not evidence that they didn't get exactly what they wanted -- this is what they wanted, and they were very successful in achieving it. From a morality-agnostic view, their strategy of extremism was a winner.
posted by chortly at 12:43 PM on January 4, 2019 [21 favorites]

Serious question: if the base supports a government shutdown and Trump's approval numbers don't drop do the GOP have any incentive to cave and override a veto?

Basically the only incentive is that the longer it goes on, the more likely it starts to hurt the base in ways they can't as easily ignore. Fucked as it sounds, I think if Trump had ended it a few days ago he'd probably come out net positive, because his base would be happy he shut it down and he'd have resumed "normal" operations before it really hit hard. With each day that likelihood becomes lower, and the only winning move becomes finding more absurd and grandiose reasons why this is all the other side's fault.
posted by tocts at 12:46 PM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

Starting to agree with critics that Mueller has become Q for the hashtag-Resist crowd.

sorry, is Mueller a fictional persona made up by a megathread commenter?

I'm happy to see impeachment greenlit as soon as, what is it, ten republican senators are on board? it'd be pretty dumb to go for it any sooner.
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:46 PM on January 4, 2019 [18 favorites]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is floating a 70 percent top tax rate — here’s the research that backs her up: Some studies indicate she’s aiming too low.

She really is the best.
posted by Ouverture at 12:47 PM on January 4, 2019 [95 favorites]

Serious question: if the base supports a government shutdown and Trump's approval numbers don't drop do the GOP have any incentive to cave and override a veto?

Maybe if it becomes a serious personal inconvenience (e.g. senators who aren't rich enough to afford a private plane not being able to travel because unpaid TSA agents walk off the job). Apart from that, if there's no major threat to their re-electability, Republicans generally don't cross Trump.
posted by jedicus at 12:48 PM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

Impeachment could begin this afternoon with a house majority. It's conviction that'll take 20 republicans and all 47 D's and I's to become reality.
posted by cmfletcher at 12:49 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

We're gonna impeach that motherfucker. And we don't even fucking need Mueller.

We don't need Mueller to impeach him but we sure as hell need him to convict.

We're only going to get one bite at this apple. Not in a legal sense, but in a political and practical one. Before Mueller comes back with his report there is a 0% chance of conviction. After he comes back there is a low but non-0% chance of conviction.

I don't see why recognizing this fact is crazy. Do we want to feel good or do we want the best chance to remove the guy? 'Cause the best, and only, chance is after Mueller.
posted by Justinian at 12:51 PM on January 4, 2019 [37 favorites]

I'm fully in favor of constituents saying "impeach that motherfucker" to their representatives.
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:52 PM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

sorry, is Mueller a fictional persona made up by a megathread commenter?

Robert Mueller the man? No.

The All-Knowing, All-Powerful, Patriot Daddy Mueller who will single-handedly save us all from bad daddy trump?
Kinda sorta, yeah.
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:52 PM on January 4, 2019 [39 favorites]

@MarshallCohen: BIG MUELLER NEWS: The federal grand jury in DC that Mueller has been using was just extended for another six months, per my colleague @kpolantz. The original 18-month term was set to expire but the chief judge of the DC District Court has extended the grand jury's mandate.
posted by zachlipton at 12:55 PM on January 4, 2019 [41 favorites]

Tevin regardless of Trump's numbers, unless his entire base abandons him, I'd argue that the Republicans will not be overriding a veto. Going against Trump in such a way is a direct threat to their re-election and because of that they won't do it. Or at least for the more vulnerable ones it is, and that's why McConnell won't allow a vote on any bill that Trump will reject.

He made a huge, uncharacteristic, blunder in allowing the vote on the last continuing resolution (the one that passed unanimously) because now he has to look stupid by refusing to let it pass again. Partially he's hindered by the fact that predicting what Trump will do is essentially impossible.

But McConnell is in a pretty damn secure seat, so he can afford to take the heat here. He's trying desperately to keep the heat off any and all more vulnerable Republican Senators. 2020 is coming, and if they piss off the Trump cultists they might lose. And with the possibility of Trump losing the White House in 2020 looking increasingly possible, McConnell is thinking about preserving the Republican Senate majority in order to obstruct the likely 2020 Democratic President.

All of which is to say that I don't think that McConnell will ever permit a vote to override a Trump veto to take place. The risk of Trump cultist backlash would be too harmful to the Republican Party. So I have no idea how this ends without the Democrats caving.
posted by sotonohito at 12:56 PM on January 4, 2019 [9 favorites]

Serious question: if the base supports a government shutdown and Trump's approval numbers don't drop do the GOP have any incentive to cave and override a veto?

It’s likely the GOP is hearing a lot of grief from its financial and institutional supporters re: Trump’s Shutdown and if that grief becomes more painful than the pain they expect to feel by crossing Trump and his base, there will be some movement.

Pelosi’s recent moves seem aimed at exploiting the tension between GOP base and insiders, and pushing those insiders to apply more pressure on McConnell to fix this.

Who knows if that pressure will matter much, ultimately, although the pummeling the party took in the midterms ought to have been instructive.
posted by notyou at 12:57 PM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

"The southern border is a dangerous, horrible disaster."

Why aren't people (media, Congress) openly denying this false premise? There is no border crisis, the entire thing is delusional.
posted by thelonius at 12:57 PM on January 4, 2019 [25 favorites]

Uh, you apparently didn't get the memo: a Democratic congresswoman used the word "motherfucker" in public.
posted by Rykey at 1:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

To any R clutching their pearls over "impeach that motherfucker," I think every reporters question should be, "but isn't that just locker-room talk?"
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 1:01 PM on January 4, 2019 [71 favorites]

From a morality-agnostic view, their strategy of extremism was a winner.

Getting into the strategy / process weeds...

An honest accounting of the Tea Party success has to account for all of their assets, and if you do, you'll see this isn't a symmetrical situation. Which: that doesn't mean a strategy of extremism can't work for the left (and I think it can), but copying the Tea Party's playbook probably won't work because we don't have the same set of assets and the terrain has changed.

The Tea Party was primarily an astroturf operation that was the tip of a spear that the right spent decades building. It was supported by:

- an entire cable network running media campaigns coordinated between politicians and a vast network right wing "think tanks"
- many, many, many literal billionaires who had, at that point, already spent hundreds of millions of dollars capturing state legislatures
- captured state legislatures leading to gerrymandered seats and friendly judges
- probably some other stuff I'm forgetting about

We don't have any of that. And this time they also have Russian intelligence and the social media companies on their side, which...Jesus Christ.

So the Tea Party's extremism didn't work in a vacuum. It was part of a very carefully coordinated and meticulously executed strategy that played out over a long period of time. And it would be dumb to pretend that polling doesn't consistently show that that "extremist" left is about half the size of the extreme right, probably as a result of this long, careful, well-funded campaign. I think that can change, but not by blindly throwing "extremism" at the wall and hoping that it sticks.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:03 PM on January 4, 2019 [27 favorites]

The best reasons for “wait for Mueller to finish” that I've heard don't end with “because he'll provide a silver bullet” but “because you want to put everything in the articles of impeachment.” There's absolutely not going to be tolerance for impeaching Trump and then filing more charges when the Russia investigation concludes, never mind everything going down in SDNY. You either wait for the investigations to wrap up and incorporate them into your list of high crimes and misdemeanors, or you cut bait on Mueller entirely, which would be a big step after the last two years. (Although it's one the Dems need to be prepared for if he seems likely to continue into 2020)
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 1:05 PM on January 4, 2019 [18 favorites]

But McConnell is in a pretty damn secure seat, so he can afford to take the heat here.

I don't think Turtle Boy's seat is as secure as you think. For one, Matt Bevin may be looking for work come 2020, and he'd be happy to primary out a traitorous McConnell.
posted by NoxAeternum at 1:05 PM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

This shutdown is more about McConnell than Trump.

McConnell's staying quiet and out of the picture, hoping nobody will notice.

NYCSouthpaw:

Trump said McConnell didn’t appear at the rose garden press conference because he’s running the Senate. The Senate adjourned this morning—before the press conference started—without taking up the government funding measures passed by the House yesterday.

One might speculate that McConnell didn’t want to face questions on national tv, standing next to the president, about not letting those bills have an up or down vote on the senate floor.

Meanwhile, his aides are having to bullshit to the press: "According to McConnell aide David Popp, Thune and McConnell left the White House ground when the meeting ended. McConnell “was unaware” of the press conference “but of course would have gone if asked," Popp said."
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:06 PM on January 4, 2019 [9 favorites]

We don't have any of that.

What the "extremist left" does have is the fact that every one of our policy proposals has extremely broad public support when polled on its own, devoid of the label "brought to you by the ScaryLiberalBernieSandersObamaPelosiSocialists". We don't have to spend billions and decades building a vast facade/institutional conspiracy to conceal the fact that we want to implement hated policies that fuck over everyone who didn't inherit an oil conglomerate, we just have to talk about doing...not that.
posted by T.D. Strange at 1:10 PM on January 4, 2019 [22 favorites]

If the Dow is +746 today after a congresswoman said we will impeach the MF'er does that mean the Dow agrees?

Where are we with interpreting the swings? Can't remember if Trump is still taking credit for everything or if it's all the Democrats fault.
posted by MadMadam at 1:10 PM on January 4, 2019 [4 favorites]

Regarding Tlaib's choice of expletive. I think there's a good parallel in a bit Tony Campolo (one of the dying breed of old-school progressive Christians) used repeatedly when speaking to Evangelical audiences:

“I have three things I'd like to say today. First, while you were sleeping last night, 30,000 kids died of starvation or diseases related to malnutrition. Second, most of you don't give a shit. What's worse is that you're more upset with the fact that I said shit than the fact that 30,000 kids died last night.”

Sadly, it is hard to choose a single, pithy, substitution for the evil the motherfucker has done, because there are so many loosely related things.
posted by bcd at 1:10 PM on January 4, 2019 [112 favorites]

The Pod Save America guys were talking about how, w/r/t the shutdown and the fucken wall, Trump isn't acting like he kind of knows that he's on the losing side of an argument, the way he was with, say, Charlottesville. Not that he permanently modifies his shitty positions, but he sort of mouths some of the right words (I guess here it would be 'compromise') before he goes back to his shittiness.

The idea the Pod guys have is that he hasn't lost Fox News, so he believes he's winning. Why Fox News people think closing the gov't over the wall is a good idea, I guess just fucking wackadoodle racism.
posted by angrycat at 1:13 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

So Steve King was apparently spooked by how close his last race was, and he's gone from having effectively no town halls to promising to have at least 39 of them this year. (There are 39 counties in his district, and he says he'll have one town hall in each.) I assume that groups like Indivisible will be organizing people to show up.

I am seriously tempted to post "Impeach the Motherfucker" on every social media site I'm on. Because seriously: impeach the motherfucker. And also, I would rather have politicians who are willing to say "impeach the motherfucker" than polite, mealy-mouthed ones who are willing to pretend that there's anything normal about this mess.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:14 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

^ 6 MORE months on that Federal Grand Jury?? Ugh?
posted by yoga at 1:16 PM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

More from the WaPo on the guy who's very unlikely to actually be a US spy: American detained by Russia was convicted of trying to steal thousands of dollars while deployed to Iraq as a Marine. He was court-martialed and discharged for bad conduct after stealing $10000 worth of currency from the U.S. government, bouncing $6000 in checks, going AWOL twice, and of falsely using another person’s social security number to sign in to an online training system to advance his own rank and pay.
posted by peeedro at 1:17 PM on January 4, 2019 [15 favorites]

Dick Cheney told Pat Leahy to go fuck himself on the Senate floor. Trump called African countries shitholes in a White House meeting with Senators. So Mr. Grab Them by the Pussy and Move on Them Like a Bitch and the rest of the pearl clutching Hitler Youth can go fuck themselves.
posted by chris24 at 1:17 PM on January 4, 2019 [138 favorites]

We're only going to get one bite at this apple. Not in a legal sense, but in a political and practical one. Before Mueller comes back with his report there is a 0% chance of conviction. After he comes back there is a low but non-0% chance of conviction.

This seems to be a common view, but where does it come from? As you say, politically there's nothing preventing the House from sending an impeachment vote to the Senate every month, or the Senate holding hearings repeatedly. Most major policies feature multiple votes, many failing, as they build towards final passage, especially when a supermajority is needed. I'm not sure what I believe myself -- my faith in my own powers to definitively say what strategies will and won't work in the future is much diminished these days -- but it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that vote A that fails in the Senate might become stronger six months later when more terrible stuff comes out and the wafflers have a harder time voting Nay, and onward for what may be another 6 years of this. Again: I don't know that this would work, and agree with most people that Mueller or not, Republicans will never convict anyway, whites-of-their-eyes or no; but in any case, it doesn't seem anything like a certainty that this must be a one-shot thing.

So the Tea Party's extremism didn't work in a vacuum. It was part of a very carefully coordinated and meticulously executed strategy that played out over a long period of time. And it would be dumb to pretend that polling doesn't consistently show that that "extremist" left is about half the size of the extreme right, probably as a result of this long, careful, well-funded campaign. I think that can change, but not by blindly throwing "extremism" at the wall and hoping that it sticks.

I agree that there are significant asymmetries between the two sides, and in fact the type of extremism pursued by the right was very well-suited to the sorts of chaos and lib-owning that were their core political goals. The left wing is probably about the same size as the true right wing once you subtract the astro-turf, but unlike the right the new left wing is truly grass-roots, inasmuch as the big-money Democrats both dislike and are disliked by the far left these days. So yeah, a truly grass-roots organization with left-leaning extremists who want to build rather than destroy is going to have to pursue a different kind of extremism to get what they want. But tying back to my Mueller point above, whatever the best strategy is, it's unlikely to be keeping their lips buttoned and sticking with the centrist leadership until some final ecstatic push at some point in the distant future; rather, as with all things, it will be gradual, by pushing constantly and loudly for the sorts of radical policies they believe in.
posted by chortly at 1:17 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

CNN, Hundreds of TSA screeners, working without pay, calling out sick at major airports

Two of the sources, who are federal officials, described the sick outs as protests of the paycheck delay. One called it the "blue flu," a reference to the blue shirts worn by transportation security officers who screen passengers and baggage at airport security checkpoints.

A union official, however, said that while some employees are upset about the pay, officers have said they are calling in sick for more practical reasons. Single parents can no longer afford child care or they are finding cash-paying jobs outside of government work to pay their rent and other bills, for example.

posted by zachlipton at 1:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [56 favorites]

Let's say impeachment goes to the Senate and we don't have the votes. Does anyone think there's nevertheless some value in making those GOP motherfuckers going on the record saying they're OK with all of his shit?
posted by whuppy at 1:23 PM on January 4, 2019 [8 favorites]

In what way are they not already no the record being OK with all of his shit?
posted by Green With You at 1:26 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

Yeah, I never really understood the reasoning behind the whole "when you come at the king, you best not miss" thing as it relates to impeachment. The Republican Party paid no apparent political price for stuff like the endless Benghazi hearings. The Democrats are mostly a bunch of wilting flowers who are never going to do multiple impeachment attempts in that way, but if they did would there really be much of a price to pay?
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 1:28 PM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

Hearings are not impeachment and they can and will happen. Hearings should be enough to put all of his kids in jail or force him to start pardoning his own family.
posted by cmfletcher at 1:31 PM on January 4, 2019 [35 favorites]

Does anyone think there's nevertheless some value in making those GOP motherfuckers going on the record saying they're OK with all of his shit?

No, I don't think so. The voters who supported them (and Trump) before will continue to support them and might even double down, seeing this as just further confirmation of the vast communist socialist Muslim atheist liberal conspiracy out to take down Real Patriots like Trump.

That sort of scorekeeping only resonates with a handful of journalists and pundits and won't have a significant electoral effect.

George W. Bush committed genocidal war crimes 15 years ago and now has an approval rating in the mid 60's. What would make anyone think Trump, another ridiculously wealthy politician, is going to be held accountable by ~the adults in the room~?
posted by Ouverture at 1:31 PM on January 4, 2019 [13 favorites]

Is there literally no way for the Senate to consider House legislation over the wishes of the majority leader? Surely, seeing as how they passed this unanimously before the end of the session, there have to be Republicans willing to go along with it. Does the Senate have no analogous process to the house's discharge petition in which a supermajority can compel consideration? (There's something called a "discharge petition" in Senate procedure, but it seems to be something completely different and more limited in scope)
posted by jackbishop at 1:32 PM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

Why aren't people (media, Congress) openly denying this false premise? There is no border crisis, the entire thing is delusional.

Both from the WaPo:

The administration is using heavily inflated numbers to argue for a border wall

Justice Dept. admits error but won’t correct report linking terrorism to immigration

posted by peeedro at 1:33 PM on January 4, 2019 [20 favorites]

Yeah, I never really understood the reasoning behind the whole "when you come at the king, you best not miss" thing as it relates to impeachment. The Republican Party paid no apparent political price for stuff like the endless Benghazi hearings.

It's from coming at Bill Clinton for impeachment only for the effort to fail in the Senate and seeing Clinton's approval numbers rise.

At a single passing glance, this connection makes some sense. After any serious thought, the two situations are nothing alike, as Clinton's offenses are nothing compared to Trump's. Additionally it's not even necessary to bring the Russia investigation into an impeachment trial given all of the other things already cited, such as the ongoing violation of emoluments. But it's also a political fight, not a legal one, and the track record of our media thus far does not make the prospects of a multiple impeachment strategy appealing.

I'm on the fence, myself. But you want to know where the "best not miss" thing comes from in terms of American politics and not just a TV reference? Clinton. And that's well within living memory.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:37 PM on January 4, 2019 [11 favorites]

A union official, however, said that while some employees are upset about the pay, officers have said they are calling in sick for more practical reasons. Single parents can no longer afford child care or they are finding cash-paying jobs outside of government work to pay their rent and other bills, for example.

During today's press conference, Trump said not getting paid was no big deal because everybody you owe money will probably just let you float for a while because they know you're good for it. (I'm serious.)
posted by diogenes at 1:38 PM on January 4, 2019 [45 favorites]

who are never going to do multiple impeachment attempts in that way, but if they did would there really be much of a price to pay?

The Republicans are generally considered to have paid a price for their failed attempt to impeach Clinton, and they never tried again after it failed.

Impeachment in the House means a trial followed by a vote in the Senate. The first time you do it, the press will be all over it. The fifth time, and suddenly impeachment becomes a nearly meaningless gesture. And you'll waste an awful lot of the Chief Justice's time, since he'll have to preside over all of the trials. And McConnell might just refuse to schedule a vote on the nth impeachment, which is arguably a constitutional crisis on its own (if an impeachment trial is held, but nobody votes on it, does it make a sound?)
posted by BungaDunga at 1:38 PM on January 4, 2019 [11 favorites]

I am waiting for some politician to say:

Mexicans are not rapists. We will not fund Trump's racist fantasy.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:39 PM on January 4, 2019 [31 favorites]

Also, for clarity on my own comment: by "Clinton's offenses are nothing compared to Trump's," I mean specifically the things brought forward in the impeachment and not the broader allegations of his sexual misconduct over the years. An affair with a very young intern is obviously dodgy at best and I'm not saying it was cool or okay, but setting the country on fire seems like a whole 'nother matter.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 1:41 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

No one here, that I could see, objected to the sentiment she expressed or the language she used to express it, per se; we objected to when, and I, at least, objected to the general idea of going off-book when the Dems are currently trying to avert like several very immediate crises at once. (Assuming, based on Dem reaction and resultant media coverage that is now less focused on the shut down fight currently impoverishing a shit ton of workers, that it was in fact off book.) Asserting otherwise does not make it so. If that's a conversation that's going on elsewhere, ok, I guess? But continuing to read irate repudiations of something I don't think anyone here has said makes for a confusing, fighty thread.

My preferred sobriquet for the demented old shithead would be "the white supremacist rapist," because I like to just tell the truth, but probably someone can come up with something pithier and with better messaging.
posted by schadenfrau at 1:43 PM on January 4, 2019 [9 favorites]

WaPo, Ellen Nakashima, Justice Dept. admits error but won’t correct report linking terrorism to immigration

The Justice Department has acknowledged errors and deficiencies in a controversial report issued a year ago that implied a link between terrorism in the United States and immigration, but — for the second and final time — officials have declined to retract or correct the document.

Released by the departments of Justice and Homeland Security, the report stated that 402 of 549 individuals — nearly 3 in 4 — convicted of international terrorism charges since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were foreign-born.
...
Several government watchdog and civil liberty groups in May sued the two agencies in two federal courts, seeking a retraction or correction under the little-known Information Quality Act. The agencies refused, and the courts stayed the lawsuits to allow time for an administrative appeal.

Now, after two rounds, the Justice Department has told the groups it will not retract or correct the document. Rather, “in future reports, the department can strive to minimize the potential for misinterpretation,” Michael H. Allen, deputy assistant attorney general for policy, management and planning, wrote in a Dec. 21 letter to the groups.

It is, experts said, a rare admission from the department that its reporting may have confused and misled the public. “This is the government’s statement on the risk of terrorism presented by foreign-born individuals in the United States, and it’s critical that it be accurate — not just because the law requires it but because they have a duty to the American people to accurately report information of this type,” said Ben Berwick, counsel for Protect Democracy, one of the groups that sued the government and is representing the others in court.

So the government acknowledges it made false statements to blame immigrants for crimes, but straight up says it won't correct or retract the report.
posted by zachlipton at 1:55 PM on January 4, 2019 [30 favorites]

Trump said not getting paid was no big deal because everybody you owe money will probably just let you float for a while because they know you're good for it.

This coming from the guy that every bank on Wall Street has spurned because they know that he isn't good for it. Maybe those TSA employees just need to get in touch with the Russians.
posted by JackFlash at 1:55 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

This coming from the guy that every bank on Wall Street has spurned because they know that he isn't good for it. Maybe those TSA employees just need to get in touch with the Russians.

Pretty sure this is actually Putin’s endgame, when you really think about it.
posted by valkane at 2:05 PM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

The plan is to wait for Mueller
...
BIG MUELLER NEWS: The federal grand jury in DC that Mueller has been using was just extended for another six months

Meanwhile children are dying in concentration camps overseen by brownshirts now working without pay, and the president is talking about declaring a state of emergency because the legislature isn't going along with his racist agenda quickly enough.

Robert Mueller is a Republican cop who cut his teeth during the Cold War and is now watching avowed socialists climb the ranks of our federal government, a development I imagine he views with at least some degree of horror and aversion. I don't know his feelings on immigration but I doubt they align much with my own. I don't know what his report will eventually include, nor how much action we can reasonably expect to see taken on it by a legislature that can already see a hundred high crimes and misdemeanors happening in broad daylight in front of God and everybody, but he doesn't seem like the ace in the hole a lot folks seem to view him as.

So no, I don't think "wait for Mueller" is a great plan. Impeachment is a political act, and political reality is made on the ground.
posted by contraption at 2:15 PM on January 4, 2019 [44 favorites]

Ryan Zinke defends his legacy of selling out the public lands to petroleum and mining interests by comparing himself to Teddy Roosevelt. The man who ordered the national parks to remain open during the shutdown says visitors should "grab a trash bag and take some trash out".
posted by peeedro at 2:19 PM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

Why Louisiana Stays Poor (Youtube, about 20 mins)
This should probably have it's own FPP, but that would be better with some local research.
I'm posting it here as a comment to AOC's tax suggestion.
posted by mumimor at 2:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [11 favorites]

@zoetillman (buzzfeed news)
Mark your calendars: The 4th Circuit has scheduled arguments in the emoluments clause case against Trump re: his interest in his DC hotel for the week of March 19.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:36 PM on January 4, 2019 [26 favorites]

Why Louisiana Stays Poor is just infuriating. There is a state organization that is giving industries almost blanket exemption to local taxes. The locals therefor cannot pay for services. Why would companies want the places their employees come from to be broke?
posted by Midnight Skulker at 2:38 PM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

I'm fine with doubting that the Mueller investigation will provide the magical collusion evidence that will rip the scales from the GOP's collective eyes and make them vote to convict a man who is already manifestly incompetent, corrupt and evil. But the Manafort and Butina investigations (especially Butina) are more than enough to convince me he's not motivated by loyalty to the Republican Party.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 3:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

This is a weird derail and Ouverture, it is not by any means the first one you've started. Please leave the contrarian-dubious-linking alone - it's not helping and just means more cleanup for us.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 3:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

> Kevin McCarthy looks like he’s having a silent meltdown behind Trump

He's Steve now.

Yahoo's Hunter Walker: "Trump audibly said “Thank you Steve to Kevin McCarthy after he finished speaking.”" (Video from Buzzfeed's David Mack)
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:11 PM on January 4, 2019 [22 favorites]

> Kevin McCarthy looks like he’s having a silent meltdown behind Trump

He's Steve now.

Yahoo's Hunter Walker: "Trump audibly said “Thank you Steve to Kevin McCarthy after he finished speaking.”" (Video from Buzzfeed's David Mack)

Man, that is the funniest thing I've seen for ages
posted by mumimor at 3:37 PM on January 4, 2019 [9 favorites]

What is happening

@AnnCoulter: Ocasio-Cortez wants a 70-80% income tax on the rich. I agree! Start with the Koch Bros. -- and also make it WEALTH tax.

posted by schadenfrau at 3:38 PM on January 4, 2019 [32 favorites]

You know, if I1 was just a b-list celebrity, I’d feel sorry for him, being trotted out when he’s clearly unwell. The fact that the Republicans are just letting this dottering old lunatic destroy our country is terrifying. It’s not like their piles of cash are going to save them when the world burns.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 3:39 PM on January 4, 2019 [13 favorites]

What is happening

@AnnCoulter: Ocasio-Cortez wants a 70-80% income tax on the rich. I agree! Start with the Koch Bros. -- and also make it WEALTH tax.

Strasserism. National Socialism that nods to the socialism part. Tucker Carlson does it too. If you're racist enough you can get behind a welfare state for your people. It's dangerous in that it tempts those (relatively few) on the left who the horseshoe theory actually applies to. If the history plays out again the same way, they'll shortly get purged in the Night of the Extremely, Very Long Knives, Fantastic Knives We Love Them Don't We Folks.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:42 PM on January 4, 2019 [34 favorites]

Senator Kyrsten Sinema used a book from the Library of Congress containing the texts of the US and Arizona constitutions at her swearing-in ceremony. "Kyrsten always gets sworn in on a Constitution simply because of her love for the Constitution," Sinema spokesman John LaBombard said. The senator previously served three terms in the House of Representatives.

Sinema identifies as religiously unaffliated -- the only member of Congress to do so, per the Pew Research Center for Religion and Public Life:

But by far the largest difference between the U.S. public and Congress is in the share who are unaffiliated with a religious group. In the general public, 23% say they are atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular.” In Congress, just one person – Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., who was recently elected to the Senate after three terms in the House – says she is religiously unaffiliated, making the share of “nones” in Congress 0.2%.

When asked about their religious affiliation, a growing number of members of Congress decline to specify (categorized as “don’t know/refused”). This group – all Democrats – numbers 18, or 3% of Congress, up from 10 members (2%) in the 115th Congress. Their reasons for this decision may vary. But one member in this category, Rep. Jared Huffman, D-Calif., announced in 2017 that he identifies as a humanist and says he is not sure God exists. Huffman remains categorized as “don’t know/refused” because he declined to state his religious identity in the CQ Roll Call questionnaire used to collect data for this report.

posted by Iris Gambol at 3:43 PM on January 4, 2019 [26 favorites]

National Socialism that nods to the socialism part

So they’re leaning into the Nazism

Great
posted by schadenfrau at 3:53 PM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Best response to the AOC Dancegate fail I’ve seen so far.

Second best response.

Third best response.
posted by darkstar at 3:58 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

Maybe we are entering the age of political flashmobs. Something I personally would enjoy.
Not least because it seems bad politics = bad dancing (unfortunately, this is not an entirely foolproof method of sorting fascists. But its fun)
posted by mumimor at 4:06 PM on January 4, 2019 [2 favorites]

The plan is to wait for Mueller. It's not hard to understand. Just follow the plan. Whites of their eyes. Let our silence now be like the sea pulling back before the tsunami. If Tlaib doesn't understand that, give her one demerit, but only one.

If the plan is to wait for Mueller, then the plan is to let Mueller indict Trump. That's how the legal system works. Now, I hope that Mueller actually does that. Let Justice Be Done, Though The Heaven's Fall.

And really, "Tone Policing" Tlaib? That's not cool, man. Not cool. She's just saying what we're all thinking.

AND really, ever time Trump lies to Congress and The Public, he's violating 18 USC 1001. Material Misstatements. There's thousands of criminal counts.

The REAL question is "Why doesn't the House impeach Trump on each and every one, singly." Suck the air out of the room, and let's end this. Yeah, so the Senate gives trump on the first charge. There's over 4,000 separate violations. So just vote on the next article of impeachment for lie #2...

Repeat as needed for relief.
posted by mikelieman at 4:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

A union official, however, said that while some employees are upset about the pay, officers have said they are calling in sick for more practical reasons.

More practical?

Single parents can no longer afford child care or they are finding cash-paying jobs outside of government work to pay their rent and other bills, for example.

Still sounds like they're upset/desperate about not getting paid. Weird that their union officials are downplaying that.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 4:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [28 favorites]

Supreme Court will hear two challenges to partisan gerrymandering.

As mentioned yesterday, they're not taking these cases to save us from gerrymandering. The Republican Court will either rule that partisan gerrymanders are not a judicial question, or endorse a state based approach in order to rule the Democratic pushback of non-partisan redistricting commissions unconstitutional. One outcome helps Republicans, the other really helps Republicans by taking away the only effective measure Democrats have been able to come up with to fight back. There's no possibility of a good outcome here under the Gorsuch*/Kavanaugh court, that died with Anthony Kennedy's last shred of decency and corrupt deal with Trump. The Court will do its best to take back the House for Republicans and ensure they cannot lose it again.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:25 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

Still sounds like they're upset/desperate about not getting paid. Weird that their union officials are downplaying that.

Law enforcement unions are just not like other unions in many ways.
posted by hydropsyche at 4:51 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

What is happening

@AnnCoulter: Ocasio-Cortez wants a 70-80% income tax on the rich. I agree! Start with the Koch Bros. -- and also make it WEALTH tax.

Strasserism. National Socialism that nods to the socialism part.

To simplify Rust Moranis' answer even further, it's another round in Coulter's feud with the Kochs - she doesn't like that they're not big Trump supporters and that they're not hardline extremist anti-immigration, and a big rise in wealth taxes (rather than income taxes) would affect them.
posted by soundguy99 at 5:05 PM on January 4, 2019 [12 favorites]

As mentioned yesterday, they're not taking these cases to save us from gerrymandering. The Republican Court will either rule that partisan gerrymanders are not a judicial question, or endorse a state based approach in order to rule the Democratic pushback of non-partisan redistricting commissions unconstitutional.

Then when, after 2 more years of Trump, we win back even more in 2020, we better gerrymander so hard they never forget their hubris damned them to obscurity.
posted by saysthis at 5:08 PM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

Then when, after 2 more years of Trump, we win back even more in 2020, we better gerrymander so hard they never forget their hubris damned them to obscurity.

Well, you can really gerrymander the Senate, so obscurity is unlikely.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:30 PM on January 4, 2019

Supporting dictators is obscene. Taking money from the poor and giving it to the rich is obscene. Saying the press is the enemy of the people is obscene. "Motherfucker" is just a cuss word.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 5:30 PM on January 4, 2019 [97 favorites]

@maggieNYT

A spokesman for GWB says the issue of the wall, which POTUS claimed he’s spoken to other presidents about, didn’t come up “when President Trump kindly conveyed his condolences after” HW passed away.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:46 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

WaPo, Millions face delayed tax refunds, cuts to food stamps as White House scrambles to deal with shutdown’s consequences

Food stamps for 38 million low-income Americans would face severe reductions and more than $140 billion in tax refunds are at risk of being frozen or delayed if the government shutdown stretches into February, widespread disruptions that threaten to hurt the economy.

The Trump administration, which had not anticipated a long-term shutdown, recognized only this week the breadth of the potential impact, several senior administration officials said. The officials said they were focused now on understanding the scope of the consequences and determining whether there is anything they can do to intervene.

It would really be helpful if the people running the government took some brief interest in learning how the government works.
posted by zachlipton at 5:50 PM on January 4, 2019 [54 favorites]

Then when, after 2 more years of Trump, we win back even more in 2020, we better gerrymander so hard they never forget their hubris damned them to obscurity.

No. This court would rule gerrymanders that benefit Democrats are unconstitutional, and gerrymanders that benefit Republicans are fine. The Gorsuch/Kavanaugh court are not going to hold themselves to logical consistency.
posted by mrgoat at 6:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

politically there's nothing preventing the House from sending an impeachment vote to the Senate every month, or the Senate holding hearings repeatedly.

Impeachment is modeled after (and perceived as) a criminal trial, where the House indicts and the Senate convicts or acquits. Impeachment of Clinton backfired because Republicans -- who had a 56-44 majority -- came way short. 67 guilty votes are required to remove from office -- they only found 45 votes on one count (55 not guilty) and a 50-50 split on the other.

A failed impeachment is seen as vindication, acquittal, proof of innocence. Holding repeated impeachments would let Trump argue that he was repeatedly proven not guilty, and it would carry weight. A vote against convicting is literally a "not guilty" vote, and Republicans hold a majority in the Senate. Unless you can break away votes from their side, repeated trials would probably help him.

Why would he cooperate? Why would Republicans even show up? Why would McConnell even schedule hearings? It would be easy (and persuasive to low-info voters) to argue that this is a bunch of Democrats just scoring political points, not a real thing.
posted by msalt at 6:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

He's committed innuerable impeachable offenses, in public, that we know about, we don't have to "wait for Mueller".

Congress.. is not going to impeach anyone.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 6:05 PM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

I'm happy to see impeachment greenlit as soon as, what is it, ten republican senators are on board? it'd be pretty dumb to go for it any sooner.

Welp, no way to know if they're on board for realsies (Rs do have a tendency to lie on occasion) unless we try, no?
posted by sexyrobot at 6:10 PM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

The U.S. Government Shutdown Is Screwing Up the World's Biggest Weather Conference

The shutdown over Trump’s border wall means federal scientists have had to cancel their trips to this year’s confab in Phoenix, and their absence could have reverberations long after the federal government reopens for business

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [9 favorites]

Food stamps for 38 million low-income Americans would face severe reductions

It would really be helpful if the people running the government took some brief interest in learning how the government works.

For the GOP, 38 million poor people starving would mean the government's working perfectly. They'll even accept not paying ICE and other agents of state brutality if it means all federal services indefinitely ceasing to function.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:22 PM on January 4, 2019 [13 favorites]

It hit me this morning that everything about this situation would be exactly the same if Trump was asking for $5 billion deposited directly into his bank account

Well, at least he'd finally be an actual billionaire, like he's always claimed!
posted by notsnot at 6:25 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

Trump threatens years-long shutdown for his wall as GOP support begins to fracture (WaPo)

President Trump warned Friday that the partial government shutdown could go on for months or even years, delivering no real breakthrough with congressional leaders as his own administration scrambled to shore up support among Republicans for a gambit that has started to fracture.

In a rambling hour-long news conference in the Rose Garden that followed a meeting with senior lawmakers, Trump asserted that he had the power to declare a national emergency to build the wall without Congress — a move that would almost certainly be challenged in the courts. At the same time, he insisted the government would stay shuttered while the wall impasse continues, claiming without offering evidence that previous presidents have told him they wished they had built a wall themselves.

Trump seemed to display little empathy for the 800,000 federal employees who have been furloughed or are working without being paid, saying that most workers support the shutdown and that the “safety net is going to be having a strong border because we’re going to be safe.” For workers who will not be able to pay their rent, Trump suggested that landlords would “work with” them and that he would encourage them to “be nice and easy” on their tenants.

... The chaotic news conference Friday — combined with the meeting with congressional leaders in the White House Situation Room that preceded it — underscored how few substantive developments have occurred since the shutdown began two weeks ago. Congress is adjourned until Tuesday, making Wednesday the earliest the government can reopen barring a major turnaround in the current standoff between the administration and congressional Democrats.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:27 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

A spokesman for GWB says the issue of the wall, which POTUS claimed he’s spoken to other presidents about, didn’t come up “when President Trump kindly conveyed his condolences after” HW passed away.

He meant that he ranted at Ben Franklin's picture on the hundred-dollar bill he keeps at his desk.

Yes, I know Franklin wasn't a president. I don't think Trump knows that.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 6:31 PM on January 4, 2019 [1 favorite]

ChurchHatesTucker, the Plant and Animal Genome meetings begin in a week. The absence of USDA scientists would result in similar, undesirable outcomes. It’s also going to make a mess of the program. A PD meeting for federal grant recipients won’t take place. Just a stupid, preventable mess.
posted by wintermind at 6:32 PM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

And McConnell might just refuse to schedule a vote on the nth impeachment,

Where n=1. Why not? Because it violates norms and common-sense expectations?
posted by ctmf at 6:43 PM on January 4, 2019

My guess/hope is that there are enough Republican Senators that are willing to convict if Trump gets impeached but they feel a need to have sufficiently strong evidence to do so to be able to justify it to GOP primary voters. In the meantime it makes for a convenient fig leaf giving them cover for continued inaction.

Such Senators may well have agreed that Trump should be impeached even before Comey was fired but had convinced themselves that they'd lose their jobs if they did. If so, they'd have agreed to appointing Mueller knowing full well that he'd be likely to uncover enough dirt to let them vote to impeach without losing their jobs. And it should loud and public enough that the general public would be aware of it instead of just us nerds.
posted by VTX at 6:43 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

Many of the federal employees affected by the weeks-long shutdown have been working without pay. That is essentially the opposite of a strike.

Actually, there's a name for it: Slavery, and I don't understand at all why this situation is legal. NOTHING is so important as to bring back slavery in any form. And YES, I'm including things like emergency services and air traffic control. How long do you think this shutdown would last if there was no 911 while planes fell out of the sky? How likely would a shutdown exist in the first place?
posted by sexyrobot at 6:57 PM on January 4, 2019 [21 favorites]

How long do you think this shutdown would last if there was no 911 while planes fell out of the sky? How likely would a shutdown exist in the first place?

the republicans are basically banking on the fact that people who enter the civil service tend to have a slightly overdeveloped sense of public duty
posted by murphy slaw at 7:11 PM on January 4, 2019 [10 favorites]

prob won't take too many missed paychecks to cure their sense of duty
posted by ryanrs at 7:17 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

Impeachment is modeled after (and perceived as) a criminal trial, where the House indicts and the Senate convicts or acquits... A failed impeachment is seen as vindication, acquittal, proof of innocence. Holding repeated impeachments would let Trump argue that he was repeatedly proven not guilty, and it would carry weight. A vote against convicting is literally a "not guilty" vote, and Republicans hold a majority in the Senate.

That's, like, just your opinion man. Seriously, though: confident statements in the passive voice about what is or will be -- "impeachment is" X, "the plan" is Y, doing Z is "off-book" -- are pretty misguided when our historical precedents are on the order of N=1. There are different views of what might work best strategically, and while it may be that repeated efforts to oust would backfire, there are plenty of both US historical and non-US contemporary examples where the opposite held, and the Nth time was the charm. Whichever side is right, though, none of us are qualified to make firm declarative proclamations in the passive voice about what is or will be.
posted by chortly at 7:29 PM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

Arlen Parsa (@arlenparsa):

"my favorite way to listen to the president is slowed down to 1/2 speed because it reveals how often times his logic is indistinguishable from that of a drunk person"

Must watch. He really is indistinguishable from that really contemplative and thoughtful, yet completely blitzed drunk dude.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:31 PM on January 4, 2019 [51 favorites]

You should distinguish between TSA and CBP. TSA is mostly near minimum wage people working a shitty job about as interesting as a cashier at WalMart. Yeah, it's annoying but they are just doing their jobs to pay their rent. They are not law enforcement. They don't carry guns, tasers or even handcuffs.

CBP is law enforcement. They carry guns, tasers, handcuffs and body armor. The National Border Patrol Council, those union goons in the Trump press conference, only represent 18,000 of the over 50,000 CBP employees. They are the Trump loyal brown-shirts. The rest of CBP is mostly folks just stamping passports and collecting customs duties.

Take a bit of care in distinguishing your enemies.
posted by JackFlash at 7:32 PM on January 4, 2019 [31 favorites]

A lot of us government employees do look on public service as a calling, but we’re not fools. The budget (well, appropriations) shenanigans of the last few years have really worn on a lot of people. A lot of people are considering options outside of the federal service, and it’s always the best people who have lots of options. I can’t speak for anyone but me, but I’m tired, and I’m the sole source of income for my family. I know that I’m carefully weighing my options.
posted by wintermind at 7:35 PM on January 4, 2019 [49 favorites]

Why would he cooperate? Why would Republicans even show up? Why would McConnell even schedule hearings? It would be easy (and persuasive to low-info voters) to argue that this is a bunch of Democrats just scoring political points, not a real thing.

The Senate rules on impeachment are pretty clear, the Senate "shall" consider articles of impeachment when received from the House.

It seems to me the House could flood the Senate calendar with impeachment charges that McConnell would have to address promptly, each and every time. Constitutional hardball. It's time to play it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:46 PM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

Actually, there's a name for it: Slavery, and I don't understand at all why this situation is legal. NOTHING is so important as to bring back slavery in any form. And YES, I'm including things like emergency services and air traffic control. How long do you think this shutdown would last if there was no 911 while planes fell out of the sky? How likely would a shutdown exist in the first place

I don't understand how it's legal either, but slavery as it was actually practiced in this country is in no way comparable to federal employees working during the shutdown. Get some goddamn perspective.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 7:50 PM on January 4, 2019 [22 favorites]

On the one hand, spamming the Senate with impeachment charges would almost definitely be a colossal waste of time for everyone and look bad for the House. Slow your roll, 1998 Newt. On the other hand, you can impeach any officer of the federal government; you don’t have to go after just the President. And you can bar someone from ever holding federal office again. Remember that the Olde English origin of impeachment was to free the king from wicked advisers.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:57 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

Even "essential" employees are not required to work. They can always walk off the job at any time. There's no criminal penalty for quitting a civil service position, not even the FBI or CIA or ICE, at worst they might have to eventually repay some training or travel expenses.* And some will start soon if this really drags on for months, out of disgust or necessity.

The reason for furloughs, rather than just working through the lapse in appropriations, is the Anti-deficiency Act, which basically says the executive cannot spend any money not already appropriated by the legislature, which was actually an anti-corruption measure as originally passed. Government actors in the robber baron age would spend more money than contracted for and force congress into repaying them. The same act bars working for the government on a voluntary basis for similar reasons, thus you have furloughs even if federal employees would be willing to work pending payment later.

* - this is different for the military obviously, but DOD is fully funded right now.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

Federal workers and contractors in jobs that require clearances have to demonstrate that they don't have any overhanging financial issues -- large debts, documented gambling problems, etc. -- because that makes them susceptible to outside influence.

Impeachment is not unlike a clerical court. It is judging fitness to hold office in the way that a church might kick out a shitty priest or one who has decided not to believe in any of the doctrine. Actually, it's like an HR tribunal. You might not commit a crime but you shouldn't work there any more. Given the number of shitty officeholders in the US, it's underused. Nobody's irreplaceable. Better that too many are impeached than too few go unimpeached.
posted by holgate at 8:00 PM on January 4, 2019 [5 favorites]

Still sounds like they're upset/desperate about not getting paid. Weird that their union officials are downplaying that.

Note that this is the TSA union, which is not law enforcement, and represents mostly minimum wage federal employees. Public union officials have to be very, very careful in how they speak because they can and have been sent to jail by judges for condoning "illegal" work stoppages. They also risk tens of thousands of dollars in union fines.
posted by JackFlash at 8:10 PM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

The Senate rules on impeachment are pretty clear, the Senate "shall" consider articles of impeachment when received from the House.

True. But consideration could be an immediate up or down vote with no discussion. Also, McConnell has changed the rules of the Senate to boost his political power several times, and a majority vote is all he needs to do so.
posted by msalt at 8:13 PM on January 4, 2019

Metafilter: get some goddamn perspective.
posted by quonsar II: smock fishpants and the temple of foon at 8:15 PM on January 4, 2019 [15 favorites]

@kateirby (McClatchy):

INBOX: Pelosi is giving full support to bill by @EleanorNorton to grant DC statehood and full voting rights, says keeping it from statehood is part of GOP's "mass disenfranchisement agenda." Unlikely to go anywhere in Senate.

posted by Chrysostom at 8:20 PM on January 4, 2019 [73 favorites]

confident statements in the passive voice about what is or will be -- "impeachment is" X, "the plan" is Y, doing Z is "off-book" -- are pretty misguided when our historical precedents are on the order of N=1

Ironic that you make this criticism in the passive voice, and weird that you don't disagree with any particular point. I didn't make up this language analogizing impeachment to trial and conviction for crimes; it's right there in the Constitution itself.

- "When the President of the United States is tried.." and "convicted..." (Article 1, Section 3);
- "The President … shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment." (Article 2, Section 2);
- "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors." (Article 2, Section 4)
- "The Trial of all Crimes, except in Cases of Impeachment, shall be by Jury;" (Article 3, Section 2)
posted by msalt at 8:21 PM on January 4, 2019 [6 favorites]

My guess/hope is that there are enough Republican Senators that are willing to convict if Trump gets impeached but they feel a need to have sufficiently strong evidence to do so to be able to justify it to GOP primary voters. In the meantime it makes for a convenient fig leaf giving them cover for continued inaction.

Pretty sure if things start to turn bad enough that the GOP needs to get rid of Trump, they will have a Nixon moment where those closest to him will tell him it's over, to give him a chance to walk away instead of being impeached. Unlike Nixon, he will say, "No, it's not." I have no idea what happens from there. We may not know it happened and only hear about it years from now.
posted by krinklyfig at 8:35 PM on January 4, 2019 [15 favorites]

I believe Trump should be impeached, but it's a one-time shot. The relevant committees in the House should immediately start investigations into the different Trump scandals, with subpoenas and public hearings. Part of the hearings should include a discussion of impeachable offenses. Put it all out there in public and on the record.

At some point the smart play for Senate Republicans will be to turn against Trump and start pretending he wasn't really a Republican and they never supported him. We're already seeing cracks in the dam. If it's publicly shown he's committed multiple impeachable offenses, he can be impeached and removed from office.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:09 PM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Like bankruptcy, impeachment will probably happen slowly, then all at once.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:19 PM on January 4, 2019 [50 favorites]

At some point the smart play for Senate Republicans will be to turn against Trump...

This will only happen if Pence is untouched. The universe will collapse back into itself before republicans take any action that might result in President Nancy Pelosi.
posted by Thorzdad at 9:21 PM on January 4, 2019 [11 favorites]

Doktor Zed: "—Trump on Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib's profane vow to impeach him: "I think she dishonoured herself, and I think she dishonoured her family. Using language like that in front of her son...""

This is the Pussy Grabber right?

zachlipton: "BIG MUELLER NEWS: The federal grand jury in DC that Mueller has been using was just extended for another six months, per my colleague @kpolantz. The original 18-month term was set to expire but the chief judge of the DC District Court has extended the grand jury's mandate."

For someone not up on US jurisprudence: What does this mean or indicate?

chris24: "Dick Cheney told Pat Leahy to go fuck himself on the Senate floor."

Cheney shot a guy and the _guy_ apologized to Cheney.

diogenes: "Trump said not getting paid was no big deal because everybody you owe money will probably just let you float for a while because they know you're good for it. (I'm serious.)"

Which coming from the guy who is never good for it is especially hilarious.

Midnight Skulker: " Why would companies want the places their employees come from to be broke?"

'Cause it makes it easier to control ~~workers~~serfs if they are experiencing food, housing, health and environmental insecurity.

:> "Single parents can no longer afford child care or they are finding cash-paying jobs outside of government work to pay their rent and other bills, for example."

This is amazingly frightening in a security position. If the whole TSA thing wasn't 99% for show I'd be scared to fly knowing the people providing physical security are seeking under the table cash payments.

President Trump warned Friday that the partial government shutdown could go on for months or even years,"

$Diety Fucking $Deity; the mind boggles. You know I've heard about countries in history basically crashing and burning in a very short period of time. Never thought I'd get to experience it.

kirkaracha: "At some point the smart play for Senate Republicans will be to turn against Trump and start pretending he wasn't really a Republican and they never supported him."

The fact that he used to be a Democrat will really help them out here.
posted by Mitheral at 9:31 PM on January 4, 2019 [7 favorites]

I don't understand how it's legal either, but slavery as it was actually practiced in this country is in no way comparable to federal employees working during the shutdown.

"Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction."

It doesn't matter if it's comparable to slavery as it was practiced. Involuntary servitude, for anyone not convicted of a crime, is illegal: the government cannot require people to work without pay. Claiming, "You'll be paid eventually," is not necessarily true - there's no guarantee the eventual budget will contain support for their wages. (And in other parts of the US, you are not required to work at a job that will pay you "eventually, when the contract goes through and gets approved by two large committees and the CEO.")
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:32 PM on January 4, 2019 [14 favorites]

It doesn't matter if it's comparable to slavery as it was practiced.

I literally started that comment dubious of the possible legality of this horseshit situation. If the comparison to slavery doesn't matter, what are you arguing with? I have empathy for federal employees right now. Making them work without pay is an outrage and should not be allowed. I am not saying, "well they should just quit then if they don't like it." Not at all. But if they do quit and look for other jobs they will not be tortured and murdered and horribly abused. It is not slavery or involuntary certitude FULL STOP These people are victims, being abused for absurd political posturing, but they are free. Making people work and then not paying them is a gargantuan case of wage theft, making people live this precariously on a whim is evil, neither of these things is slavery.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 9:53 PM on January 4, 2019 [12 favorites]

cjelli: "This is the same grand jury that returned indictments against Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, various Russian hackers, &c.);"

So is this the same people for the duration or do members come and go?
posted by Mitheral at 9:57 PM on January 4, 2019

The same people. Grand juries are one of those weird medieval bits of English jurisprudence that the English got rid of in the 19th century and didn't transfer over to places like Canada or Australia -- along with the felony / misdemeano(u)r distinction -- but Americans decided to keep hold of, because the US is a fundamentally weird country that likes living in the past for certain things. They hear evidence derived from investigations and decide whether people should be prosecuted based upon that evidence.

(There's an aside here on how English-style prosecutions and the principle of sub judice are incompatible with the US First Amendment and the attempt to balance them is mostly stupid.)
posted by holgate at 10:22 PM on January 4, 2019 [3 favorites]

Ironic that you make this criticism in the passive voice, and weird that you don't disagree with any particular point. I didn't make up this language analogizing impeachment to trial and conviction for crimes; it's right there in the Constitution itself.

Yeah, I had a smiley after that because I thought I was being cute, but took it out because it seemed too meta. Either passive-voice absolutist declarations are fine, in which case my usage was fine, or they aren't, in which case my usage was hypocritical but my overall point is correct : )

Anyway, while the constitution uses the language of a trial, (a) there is no language barring repeats, and (b) there is certainly no bar to repeated trials on different and accumulating evidence. But in any case, returning to the original point of contention, no one is really arguing about bimonthly impeachments or whatever. Even if one believes that a failed effort soon followed by a stronger effort when the really bad stuff comes out is a poor strategy (and I probably agree), the constitution certainly doesn't declare that there shouldn't be repeated calls for impeachment, even in strong language, which is what the original issue regarding Tlaib and the left wing of the party was about. The main point was that, soon or late, impeachment is probably strengthened by having a rabid left making the argument loudly and repeatedly from early on -- though who can say with certainty either way. And the broader point was that this logic holds for all sorts of policies, from Tlaib, to 70% tax rates, to single-payer: the center-left is only strengthened in their fight with the right by having a rabid left flank, and the best strategy is fewer direct attacks against that flank (assuming it's not attacking them), and instead something more like what Pelosi did today: basically a shrug and pivot to using it against Trump.
posted by chortly at 10:23 PM on January 4, 2019

Re: the "spy" Russia arrested as described in the WaPo article above:

He was court-martialed and discharged for bad conduct after stealing $10000 worth of currency from the U.S. government, bouncing $6000 in checks, going AWOL twice, and of falsely using another person’s social security number to sign in to an online training system to advance his own rank and pay.

To paraphrase the article; "Mr. Career-CIA-Guy said, 'No intelligence agency I've ever heard of would touch that guy with a stick.'" Which, I guess is what a CIA guy would say? But comparisons to the funhouse that is Carter Page don't seem that far off. It's totally in keeping with the Trump-timeline where we're all Reality Winners and this guy is Trump's-hairstylist's-cousin, or Pooty-poot just made it up for a larf.

For the Twit-averse here's a YT link of Trump sounding drunk because - you think you know what it's going to sound like, but it's more eerily accurate than you can imagine.
posted by petebest at 10:25 PM on January 4, 2019 [16 favorites]

But comparisons to the funhouse that is Carter Page don't seem that far off.

I think what he has in common with a Carter Page or George Papadopoulos, is that he sounds exactly like the kind of guy a real spy would look to compromise.
posted by peeedro at 10:29 PM on January 4, 2019 [17 favorites]

At some point the smart play for Senate Republicans will be to turn against Trump and start pretending he wasn't really a Republican and they never supported him.

The only point at which this is possible is when Tump’s innate support from the Republican base constituency erodes to nothing, and demonstrably so. Republican congressmen have seen how he will attack them at the slightest hint of breaks in support, will fight to get them primaried in their bids for re-election, and ultimately be successful in ousting them. Given that these spineless cowards care for nothing more than keeping their seats for its own sake, this is the only possibility for any serious break in ranks. And I’d put that possibility at effectively zero, in the timeline of two years—again, for any serious showdown.

Chances for Trump’s impeachment before he leaves office are effectively zero, by extension. There’s simply no real political will for it. Democrats in the House know that there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell that the Republican-controlled senate will ever give serious consideration for impeachment, for any reason. So why should they even bother? It’s a waste of political capital. If they’re smart, they will instead pummel him relentlessly with investigations, bog him down in a quagmire of legal issues, and effectively neuter him politically until he leaves office in 2020, disgraced enough to soundly lose his re-election bid.

Successful impeachment is such a long shot in the current environment, and such a grave expenditure of political energy. My money’s on Dems instead running out the clock, making Trump look increasingly terrible in the intervening time, and setting up another blue wave in 2020. That’s the long play, and the best chance to fracture congressional Republicans—and ideally the Republican Party itself—at the same time, which honestly is where just as much of the real villainy lies.

I’d love to see Trump impeached. I’d love for the character of Congress, of Republican voters, to allow for that. You know, basic human decency and morals. A basic desire to do your job as a legislator, that kind of stuff. That’s not reality, so the battle of attrition to cut the whole Republican party off at the knees is going to make more strategic sense. And there’s going to be a run on clothespins for our collective noses for the next two years, in the meantime.
posted by Brak at 12:03 AM on January 5, 2019 [28 favorites]

Fair enough—I should have thrown in “basic cognitive consonance” for Republican voters. I agree: what we’re dealing with there rarely seems to climb out of the reptilian brain.
posted by Brak at 2:25 AM on January 5, 2019 [1 favorite]

All this impeachment chatter is theory at this point, but I hope Trump is impeached. Because if he isn't, I don't think he'll ever be brought to justice. The next president will want to "look ahead" and "bring together a fractured nation" and all that, like Obama did after the Bush administration.
posted by mumimor at 2:33 AM on January 5, 2019 [8 favorites]

After reading Thursday's post about the current situation in Northern Iraq, which in all seriousness seems to currently be in a state somewhat like Ivan the Terrible's oprichnina plus religious sectarianism and Limited Liability Colonialism involvement on the part of ourselves and Iran, and today watching Democracy Now! cover the camps in Tornillo Texas and Jeffrey Epstein (.mp4, alt link, .torrent)... it might be giving in to despair on my part but I'm more disposed towards feeling like epochal change is needed: that even impeaching Trump and somehow dealing with “computational propaganda” social-media-amplified fucking around with democracy on top of gerrymandering won't be enough to catch up to the world's mounting problems.

It's a quarter-century until the demographic flip where whites become a minority in the US and white nationalism and xenophobia are only going to become worse along the way. That will probably be accompanied by global wealth (not) dealing with climate change by writing off the rest of us, so possibly planet-wide famine at the same time coastal cities everywhere are inundated, after a few decades between now and then of exclusive luxury-prepper “vacation communities” in Alaska and Siberia and the Canadian Arctic becoming increasingly established and popular.

If the see-sawing financial markets from the last couple of weeks turn out to herald another economic cataclysm maybe we should seize the initiative and embrace the people ready to lead us to the barricades, sooner rather than later.
posted by XMLicious at 2:44 AM on January 5, 2019 [11 favorites]

I'm kinda happy people are talking about impeachment, but I wish people were talking more about Trump's specific impeachable offenses. To me the only problem with what Tlaib said is that she made it sound like we were gonna impeach Trump just because we don't like him. Like he just has a horrible personality and we disagree with his political priorities, so we want him out. That's what it sounds like when you just call him a motherfucker and leave it at that.

If she had said "impeach the motherfucker" and them listed some reasons I'd be all for it.

Everywhere I see this conversation happening on the internet right now, I am making an effort to interject this list of reasons we brainstormed on metafilter a while ago...

-He is violating the emoluments clause, and as a result is receiving bribes from foreign powers.

- There is evidence that his campaign colluded with Russia to spread false propaganda, hack into state elections databases, and sabotage his political opponents by stealing and publishing their private communications.

- He's obstructed justice by firing and trying to intimidate the head of the FBI and others investigating Russian activity, and by dangling pardons to prevent testimony against him.

- He has fired the attorney general and installed a replacement who was never approved by the Senate, as the Constitution requires. Previously, he has politicized the Justice Dept by demanding investigations of rivals and castigating the attorney general for prosecuting members of his party

- He conspired to violate campaign finance laws with Michael Cohen.

- He has undermined our national security by leaking intelligence to Russian agents, refusing to take responsibility for military engagements, and neglecting diplomacy.

- He has no understanding of the Constitution and is ridiculously unqualified to lead.

- He lies constantly and undermines trust in the US government.

(And that's not to mention Puerto Rico, kids in cages, this shut down, and horrible thingd he's done to people in other countries. This list is just impeachable offenses that Republicans claim to oppose as well.)
posted by OnceUponATime at 3:52 AM on January 5, 2019 [60 favorites]

For the Twit-averse here's a YT link of Trump sounding drunk because - you think you know what it's going to sound like, but it's more eerily accurate than you can imagine.

So basically Trump has the cognitive thought processes of someone who's completely wasted, but also doing rails of adderall
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:16 AM on January 5, 2019 [7 favorites]

What Have the Elites Ever Done for Fox? It's Bret Stephens in the NYTimes, so you don't have to click it. But it is kinda funny and though Stephens has never been exactly pro-Trump it is another example of a crack in the conservative wall.
posted by mumimor at 4:22 AM on January 5, 2019 [2 favorites]

What I love about if-only comments like If she had said "impeach the motherfucker" and them listed some reasons I'd be all for it. is: do you know she didn't? Were you in the room? Did you watch the entire proceedings? Did you see a little clip on video that was disconnected from all the rest? Has she written or spoken about this? Or are you condemning her for only having a sound bite, when you don't actually know if there's more than a sound bite?

Hillary got a lot of shit along the lines of if only she'd talked about policy, when guess what, she had an entire encyclopedia of policy papers ready to go and that essentially never got covered. Liz Warren gets a lot of shit about if only she'd engaged with the Native American community, when guess what, she has already done that and it didn't get any coverage.
posted by Sublimity at 4:22 AM on January 5, 2019 [47 favorites]

You should distinguish between TSA and CBP. TSA is mostly near minimum wage people working a shitty job about as interesting as a cashier at WalMart. Yeah, it's annoying but they are just doing their jobs to pay their rent. They are not law enforcement. They don't carry guns, tasers or even handcuffs.

When they are pulling me out of line for nonsense reasons, searching me, searching my stuff, asking questions about my books, dropping my computer on the floor, giving confusing instructions, and then yelling more when I don't comply, they sure seem like cops. When they do all that and a lot worse to people who dare to be not-white or appear to be religious minorities, they sure seem like cops. When they use unscientific practices to mistreat and discriminate, they sure seem like cops. If they want to play cop and push people around for minimum wage, I'm going to call them cops and assume that their union acts more like a cop union than a real union.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:20 AM on January 5, 2019 [53 favorites]

don't worry, GOP, "impeach the motherfucker" is just lady locker room talk
posted by growabrain at 5:27 AM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

They are not law enforcement.

Imagine a group of people angry that uniformed personnel wielding rifles arrived in their village, roughed up the adult men, took liberties with the women, destroyed a few houses, damaged the rest, ran off the livestock, and blew up the well. If your response to them was “No, those weren’t soldiers, those were marines,” do you think that would be helpful or unhelpful?
posted by Etrigan at 5:55 AM on January 5, 2019 [51 favorites]

Daily Beast: Trump Referred to Shutdown as ‘Strike’ in Profanity-Laced Meeting With Democratic Leaders—The president also dropped three f-bombs and claimed Democrats wanted him impeached.

During Friday’s meeting at the White House over the ongoing shutdown standoff, President Donald Trump and Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) made little substantive progress as Pelosi and Schumer urged Trump to reopen the government by Tuesday, according to three people familiar with the meeting.

One of these knowledgeable sources told The Daily Beast President Trump kicked off the meeting with a rant lasting roughly 15 minutes that included his $5.6 billion demand for a border wall, and threatened that he was willing to keep the government closed for “years” if that’s what it took to get his wall. He also, unprompted, brought up the Democrats who want him impeached, and even blamed Pelosi for new Democratic congresswoman Rashida Tlaib saying at a party earlier this week that Democrats would impeach the “motherfucker” Trump. (It is unclear why Trump would think Pelosi was responsible for this.)

Trump proceeded to tell the room he was too popular to impeach.

Along with saying the word “fuck” at least three times throughout the meeting, the president bizarrely stated that he did not want to call the partial government shutdown a “shutdown,” according to the source. Instead, he referred to it as a “strike.” (Many of the federal employees affected by the weeks-long shutdown have been working without pay. That is essentially the opposite of a strike.)[…]

The White House did not respond to a request for comment as of press time. But according to one source familiar with the meeting, Schumer did press the president to reopen the government before continuing negotiations on a border wall. Otherwise, the Senator suggested, the president was effectively using government employees and shuttered government agencies as leverage.

“I’m not going to say it’s for leverage, but I’m not going to get a deal unless I do this," the president replied, according to the source.

The Democrats in the room shook their heads, the source said, as if to say "so, you’re doing it for leverage…"

Also, McConnell apparently stayed as quiet as possible during the heated discussion ("An aide to McConnell did not provide a readout of the meeting—citing office policy—but noted that the senator rarely talks in such sessions.").
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:39 AM on January 5, 2019 [24 favorites]

"...Tr*mp kicked off the meeting with a rant lasting roughly 15 minutes that included his $5.6 billion demand for a border wall, and threatened that he was willing to keep the government closed for “years” if that’s what it took to get his wall."

Holy shit, he's Henry J. Waternoose.
posted by h00py at 6:52 AM on January 5, 2019 [4 favorites]

To backtrack a little: my problem with impeachment is that it’s inadequate. I do want him to be brought to legal account for any illegalities he has committed but he is clearly only a tool of some other force (Putin? Mercer? The improbably embodiment of all the pent up hatred on the right for anyone who’s is not Lilly White Christian?) The real justice is to find that force and neutralize it. (With prejudice, cause fuck you you fuck. You wanna fuckin piece?)
Trump is an affront to democracy and if it turns out he is not an affront to democracy (which I don’t believe) then he’s an affront to common fucking sense.
posted by From Bklyn at 6:55 AM on January 5, 2019 [4 favorites]

my problem with impeachment is that it’s inadequate.

Yes, my problem with good is also that it’s the enemy of perfect.
posted by LooseFilter at 7:03 AM on January 5, 2019 [35 favorites]

Imagine a group of people angry that uniformed personnel wielding rifles arrived in their village, roughed up the adult men, took liberties with the women, destroyed a few houses, damaged the rest, ran off the livestock, and blew up the well.

I think they were saying that TSA screeners are not law enforcement.
posted by thelonius at 7:08 AM on January 5, 2019 [8 favorites]

Along with saying the word “fuck” at least three times throughout the meeting, the president bizarrely stated that he did not want to call the partial government shutdown a “shutdown,” according to the source. Instead, he referred to it as a “strike.” (Many of the federal employees affected by the weeks-long shutdown have been working without pay. That is essentially the opposite of a strike.)[…]

Where are the NYT language police today? Are we going to see a tut-tutting statement from Democratic leadership? Or is "fuck" only an unconscionable word when a progressive woman to the left of Pelosi and Hoyer says it?
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:14 AM on January 5, 2019 [34 favorites]

In other shutdown fun...
The missus works for a home healthcare agency. There's a ton of churn in staffing, so they are constantly hiring new care providers. Part of my wife's job is running background checks on all potential hires to weed out anyone with a felony conviction on their record. That sucks, but their liability insurance requires they not have anyone with a felony conviction on staff (I think the state requires it, too). They use E-Verify, the .gov service, to check backgrounds.

E-Verify, though, is down during the shutdown, which puts the home health service in a nasty pickle. They can either put a hold on hiring new staff, which could drastically harm the business, or hire people without having a clue what their backgrounds are, and put the company in legal jeopardy should one of the new hires do something untoward.

Fun times.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:16 AM on January 5, 2019 [45 favorites]

To backtrack a little: my problem with impeachment is that it’s inadequate.

Once/if he's impeached/convicted, he's no longer unproven-DOJ-policy-immune from indictment. Impeachment is a political process, not a criminal one and will not shield him from prosecution after it.
posted by chris24 at 7:20 AM on January 5, 2019 [13 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump 8:55AM 5 Jan 2019

Many people currently a part of my opposition, including President Obama & the Dems, have had campaign violations, in some cases for very large sums of money. These are civil cases. They paid a fine & settled. While no big deal, I did not commit a campaign violation!

Awfully specific denial for a random Saturday morning... or maybe he's just responding to something on TV.
posted by pjenks at 7:20 AM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

Hopefully anyone going into a meeting with Trump has learned to get a quick summary of what Fox News has been saying 24 hours before, just in case.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:26 AM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

pjenks: "I did not commit a campaign violation!"

The 'a' is obviously the key modifier here.
posted by Mitheral at 7:28 AM on January 5, 2019 [13 favorites]

To backtrack a little: my problem with impeachment is that it’s inadequate.

That is in no way your problem with impeachment. Impeachment is a thing that needs to happen, not the ONLY thing that needs to happen and in fact impeachment NEEDS to be part of what you're after.

You don't have a problem with impeachment, you have a problem with things STOPPING at impeachment. Is anyone, especially here on metafilter, advocating that once Trump gets impeached everything stops and we call it a job well done?

All the impeachment talk is because that's the next mini-boss we need to deal with on this level, it's not the end of the game.
posted by VTX at 7:34 AM on January 5, 2019 [20 favorites]

Impeachment is a political process, not a criminal one and will not shield him from prosecution after it.

This is true, but last time we had a Democratic president following a criminal Republican administration (notwithstanding W.'s rehabilitation and absolution because he paints now and gave Michele a candy) the Democrats shielded him from consequences all on their own. It was the political directive from Obama to "look forward, not backward" that precluded criminal prosecution for both torture and war crimes, and for Wall St.'s crimes. We can't keep wiping the slate clean because holding Republicans accountable might lose some white working class voters and make Chuck Todd have a sad.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:34 AM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

It kills me when Trump does this, his false equivalences that totally ignore the processes involved. IANAL, but yes, those people in the past were discovered to have committed violations, their actions were analyzed through an established legal process, and a penalty was prescribed in accordance with the applicable laws. That's how it works (or should work).

Your violations, King Shithead, should be subjected to the exact same process, only as far more serious violations, should carry far greater penalties. I know, I know, you're a white billionaire who's never had to account for a thing in your life, but a couple hundred million others of us who are actually bound by this pesky "system of laws" are not so baffled by its mechanisms.

That "law and order" you were always crowing about during your campaign? Every once in a blue moon, even somebody as privileged as you manages to find themselves within its purview, and sorry if its disrupts some of your golf dates.
posted by Rykey at 7:41 AM on January 5, 2019 [18 favorites]

The structure of that shitter-tweet is pure kettle logic: other people did the same thing; it's not a crime to do it; I never did it in the first place.
posted by holgate at 7:45 AM on January 5, 2019 [16 favorites]

Are we going to see a tut-tutting statement from Democratic leadership?

Give them a little time to compose one—they only just finished leaking this to the Daily Beast. Incidentally, kudos to Pelosi/Schumer for choosing the DB as their recipient of these juicy leaks. That publication will catch the attention of the chattering classes, which will force the NYT and WaPo to play catch up, spreading the news further.

WaPo's Josh Dawsey mentions Trump's swearing in an aside—"The president often used profanity during the meeting, apologizing to Pelosi at one point for cursing so much, according to the official."—in his article Trump Threatens Years-Long Shutdown For His Wall As GOP Support Begins to Fracture

Meanwhile, Maggie Haberman doesn't refer to the swearing at all in her article headlined Trump’s Wall, Trump’s Shutdown and Trump’s Side of the Story (I know most writers don't have any say in how their editors phrase the headlines to their pieces, but come on)

People close to the president described him as emboldened since members of Congress returned to Washington after the break, giving him not only a clear target to swing at but helping him focus on a fight that he is convinced is a political winner. One aide said Mr. Trump believes he has gained the upper hand in the public battle.

Although surveys at first showed more Americans blaming him for the shutdown than Democrats, later polling showed the fault more evenly split. And the voters he cares most about, his core conservative supporters, are more enthusiastic than the public at large. He has told people that “my people” love the fight, and that he believes he is winning.[…]

Mr. Trump’s version of events differed even from the other people in the room at Friday’s meeting at the White House. When Democratic congressional leaders emerged after two hours, they described a “contentious” session with no meaningful progress as the president threatened to keep the government closed for “months or even years.” When Mr. Trump emerged shortly afterward, he described a “very, very productive meeting” and predicted the standoff could be “fixed very quickly.”

Two people briefed on the meeting said that White House officials viewed the conversation as the first civil discussion that had taken place between the two sides, and it left some of Mr. Trump’s aides hopeful. Indeed, Mr. Trump made a point of publicly saying nothing but relatively positive things about the Democrats on Friday.

"Civil discussion" in spite of all the f-bombs? Haberman's favoritism becomes more obvious when the heat is on Trump and she needs to suck up to her insider sources.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:46 AM on January 5, 2019 [5 favorites]

I caught about 30 seconds of AM talk radio in a rental car last week, and the discussion was about "Does the government being shutdown actually matter?".

I was listening to NPR and they said the cost of the shutdown so far is 17 billion dollars. I wish I knew more about how they arrived at the figure. It was just mentioned casually in the middle of a conversation about the shutdown in general.

My takeaway from that cost estimate is that Trump will win his wall, because, if true, the shutdown is actually insanely expensive.
posted by xammerboy at 7:47 AM on January 5, 2019 [1 favorite]

and Trump’s Side of the Story

Headline writers should amend this to every story with Haberman's byline.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:51 AM on January 5, 2019 [10 favorites]

Why do I feel like at the end of four years Trump, having burned the country to the ground, will finally be impeached for firing Comey, and that the news will be filled with stories about how the system really came through for everyone and proved no one is above the law?
posted by xammerboy at 7:52 AM on January 5, 2019 [16 favorites]

My takeaway from that cost estimate is that Trump will win his wall

I dunno... If Pelosi and Schumer were willing to tolerate a shutdown in the first place, I'd hope they would have been savvy enough to craft Plan A around the assumption that Trump would never sign a wall-less budget into law (so they'd need to prep for a protracted standoff if necessary, then Plan B and Plan C would be under more favorable conditions, because they'd entail Trump's signing off). Or is that not how this works?
posted by Rykey at 8:04 AM on January 5, 2019 [2 favorites]

Couldn’t House Democrats just tease impeachment with an endless very public investigation into omnigate? By voting on it and sending it to the Senate it gives power to McConnell to vote “INNOCENT” and stop talking about it. So just drag it out and burn Trump and everything connected to him to the ground.
posted by Glibpaxman at 8:05 AM on January 5, 2019 [10 favorites]

Your daily report from Iowa political Twitter: Elizabeth Warren is doing a bunch of stops in Western Iowa this weekend, and so far she's getting really big crowds. 575 people showed up in Sioux City, which is a little blue-ish dot in a very red part of the state. Commenters seem a little surprised by it, so I think the feeling may be that there is more enthusiasm for Warren than anticipated. That also makes me hopeful that Scholten's run against Steve King is going to have an ongoing impact.

Or is that not how this works?

I don't think that anyone has a plan. The plan was that Trump would accept the compromise that the Senate Republicans and Dems agreed to. At this point, the only way out is for someone to back down, and neither Trump nor the Democrats can back down. I think the most likely scenario is that this goes on for a very, very long time, harming a lot of people and screwing up the US economy. Or the Democrats cave, which would really be pretty catastrophic. I'm not seeing a good resolution here, tbh.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:07 AM on January 5, 2019 [15 favorites]

My takeaway from that cost estimate is that Trump will win his wall

The thing is though, you can't really compromise with him in any real way. Because the only lesson he'll take from it is that hostage taking works. And that's all we'll have for the next two years. So beyond the fact that it's impossible to truly negotiate/compromise with someone who doesn't live in reality, lies all the time and changes his mind when the wind or Ann Coulter blows, you don't negotiate with terrorists.
posted by chris24 at 8:08 AM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

Michael Cohen : Donald Trump :: Robert Young Pelton : Erik Prince

That is all.
posted by scalefree at 8:09 AM on January 5, 2019 [7 favorites]

Incidentally, the WSJ's Rebecca Ballhaus confirms Trump's foul mouth during Friday's meeting—"Mr. Trump opened Friday’s meeting with lawmakers with a 15-minute profanity-laced rant about impeachment, according to people familiar with the meeting."— in her article. (This leaves the Grey Lady as the only major paper to gloss over Trump's swearing.)

Ballhaus also has a more objective take of the mood inside the Trump White House than Haberman:

Inside the White House, officials privately say a deal could be at least a week away, raising the possibility this may be the longest-ever lapse in federal spending. The longest shutdown in U.S. history under current rules lasted 21 days in 1995.

White House officials acknowledge that they have been outmaneuvered on the messaging over the shutdown, and don’t expect Democrats to let up.

Another challenge for White House negotiators is that only Mr. Trump has the authority to forge a deal, former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon said. “Only he speaks for Trump at the end of the day,” Mr. Bannon said. “It’s 100% him.”

Incidentally, last night on Twitter, Ballhaus called out Trump's hypocrisy about swearing on Twitter last night: “Trump in today's meeting w/lawmakers delivered a profanity-laced rant on impeachment. Two hours later in the Rose Garden, he said a Democratic lawmaker who had called him a "motherf—er" had "dishonored herself" and "dishonored her family."”
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:15 AM on January 5, 2019 [15 favorites]

So impeachment leads ultimately to being removed from office, and only an indictment would lead to fines and/or jail time?
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:19 AM on January 5, 2019 [1 favorite]

The only possible direct consequences of federal impeach are (a) removal from office; this is automatic upon conviction and (b) a bar against future federal service, which is optional. This is hard-coded into the constitution.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:23 AM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

Correct, but the only thing shielding Mr. Unindicted-Co-Conspirator-in-two-federal-cases from being prosecuted right now is being president. Once he's out...
posted by chris24 at 8:33 AM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

(It is unclear why Trump would think Pelosi was responsible for this.)

Because he's incapable of thinking of women as individual people. He's pretty much incapable of thinking of them as people at all; if pressed, he'll insist that Pelosi's actions are part of Obama's agenda. He is deeply affronted that people expect him to negotiate with women, that women are getting air time when he's not, that women are publicly saying Things about him and he's not allowed to punish them for it.

Impeach the motherfucker. It's not the solution, but it's part of it. I want his record in the history books to include, "he was impeached for emoluments, for election fraud, for treasonous dealings with Russia, for human rights violations, for lying to the US public, for falsifying public records, for racial bias in hiring, for damaging the US reputation across the world, for obstructing justice, for denying basic scientific facts, for wasting taxpayer money, for gross incompetence" and a long list of other offenses.

I don't think anyone saying "impeach him" in public is obligated to provide a list of impeachable offenses; nobody facing a camera has time to list all of those.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:46 AM on January 5, 2019 [51 favorites]

Correct, but the only thing shielding Mr. Unindicted-Co-Conspirator-in-two-federal-cases from being prosecuted right now is being president. Once he's out...

...his VP, Pence, will pardon him.*

*For any federal offenses. He will still be liable for state crimes.
posted by zakur at 8:47 AM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

“No, those weren’t soldiers, those were marines,” do you think that would be helpful or unhelpful?

If you think TSA employees are like marines and can't distinguish between TSA and CBP, we will just have to disagree. I distinguish between TSA as a bureaucratic organization and TSA minimum wage employees. I'm a little more discerning in my choice of enemies and allies.
posted by JackFlash at 8:48 AM on January 5, 2019 [10 favorites]

This week I'm supposed to go to a meeting and give two talks, but I can't due to the shut-down. This is not a scientific meeting, this is a meeting where regular people get certification credits for keeping up with the latest news and technical advancements in their field. Government scientists don't normally go to these kinds of meetings, so no one clearly associates the work we do with the benefits of the new discoveries and new technologies. This shutdown isn't just killing us because we aren't being paid- it is killing us because we want to go back to our good useful work. Right now my microbiological cultures, normally transferred every two weeks, are dying. My student interns can't come in, even though their projects are for college credit and this could affect the graduation of one of them. And I can't go to this meeting.
posted by acrasis at 9:17 AM on January 5, 2019 [58 favorites]

Couldn’t House Democrats just tease impeachment with an endless very public investigation into omnigate?

I mean, yeah, in the sense that various investigations in various House committees can certainly proceed without directly and specifically referencing impeachment or even focusing primarily on Trump himself - HuffPost piece on 52 possibles, which includes things like investigating Kushner's conflicts of interest and security clearances or lack thereof, administration officials using private emails for government business (heh), stuff like that where (at least to start) the actual specifics of the investigations involve Trump associates/family/staff rather than Trump; and/or a more general sweep, like "We need more information on possible Russian interference in our elections" which wouldn't necessarily have to begin by claiming that Trump was directly responsible.

There's also the real possibility that since any member of the House can introduce a bill to impeach (or a bill to investigate reasons to impeach), House members can introduce these bills, the bills then get sent to the appropriate committee (usually the Judiciary Committee), who then can hold various meetings and public testimony/evidence gathering, and then table the bill or put it to a committee vote, where it can fail. IOW, there's a procedural route where the impeachment process can start and evidence be gathered and publicized, but the House doesn't necessarily need to actually vote to impeach until and unless Pelosi and Nadler (Dem head of the Judiciary Committee) feel the time is right. Opinions will of course differ on whether this is a good strategy or not.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:24 AM on January 5, 2019 [9 favorites]

Is no one really jumping on the fact that he said the shutdown could take years? We (not Metafilter we) spent days writing articles about covfefe, and nothing about this throwaway? That's getting into like Venezuela territory. I'm really hoping it's just because no one believes that it would actually happen that way.
posted by Melismata at 9:29 AM on January 5, 2019 [22 favorites]

there's a procedural route where the impeachment process can start and evidence be gathered and publicized, but the House doesn't necessarily need to actually vote to impeach until and unless Pelosi and Nadler (Dem head of the Judiciary Committee) feel the time is right.

Yes this let's do this.

I guarantee that Trump believes "impeached" means "convicted of a horrible crime, which must be very bad because normal people don't ever get impeached." He will continue to think this until he's facing a serious chance of impeachment, at which point his handlers will tell him that Congress can impeach for anything, and he will proudly tweet that his being impeached is just a measure of how much the Dems don't like him, and not proof that he did anything wrong.

I still want the record to show a list of his wrongdoings, recognized by as many official bodies as we can get involved.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:31 AM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

Is no one really jumping on the fact that he said the shutdown could take years?

The shutdown will last until McConnell allows a vote. Trump will sign whatever's put in front of him; he's not capable of turning down a chance to declare, "I did something important and historic." He'd love to take credit for ending the shutdown; he just can't back down from his claim that the wall needs to happen.

So: Eventually, Mitch caves to pressure and allows the Senate to vote on the thing it already approved; it goes to Trump; he signs, and declares himself the victor of the shutdown - and immediately declares the Dems were evil for not giving you a wall. The fact that he said he wouldn't sign without a wall is conveniently ignored. This is his game: he refuses to say what he will or won't do; he won't stick to any of his promises; he does whatever will bring him the most fame and glory in the next ten minutes.

I wonder how long his SS crowd will work without pay, and when some of them quit, how they'll hire replacements that will work without pay. (And possibly more relevant - since there's no shortage of goons who'd be happy to work for him - how they'd train the replacements, because the admin sector has started the attrition process already.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:37 AM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

Is no one really jumping on the fact that he said the shutdown could take years?

Trump considers himself a master negotiator, and this is clearly a negotiating tactic. He wants the Democrats to believe that he will never back down and is perfectly happy to wait forever, and their only option is to capitulate. It's a dominance game. I don't know what he's going to do if they say "fine, that's great, see you at the polls in 2020 and we'll see how that works for you." I assume that people who have been paying more attention to his negotiating style have a better sense of what he does when someone calls his bluff. And the other question is whether the Congressional Republicans find their spine when this starts really hurting their constituents.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:42 AM on January 5, 2019 [7 favorites]

Even if he vetoes, no way the House and Senate let it go "years" without overriding the veto. Something I'm sure Trump has no idea is even possible.
posted by chris24 at 9:53 AM on January 5, 2019 [8 favorites]

Democrat Accuses Kirstjen Nielsen Of ‘Outright Lies’ On Border, Calls For Hearing < HuffPost

“Your border security presentation submitted to Congress today is yet another example of the misinformation and outright lies the Trump Administration has used to make the case for the President’s boondoggle border wall,” Thompson wrote, also referencing the ongoing partial government shutdown and the recent deaths of two children at the border.'

Also NBC gets in on the about-those-ridiculous-Nielsen-numbers game.
posted by Harry Caul at 9:58 AM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

[mash up]
Nobody know more than Trump about anything
posted by growabrain at 10:01 AM on January 5, 2019 [5 favorites]

It seems to me the House could flood the Senate calendar with impeachment charges that McConnell would have to address promptly, each and every time. Constitutional hardball. It's time to play it.

So, uh, we're still pretending Republican senators give a shit about rules? Riddle me this: what happens if the House passes Articles of Impeachment and the Senate just doesn't bother to take it up? Do the Capitol Police arrest Mitch McConnell? 'Cause if they don't, why should he bother?

You hang a lot of faith on the idea that Congress will perform its designated duty. Ask Merrick Garland how enthusiastic they are about that when their responsibilities happen to be something they don't want to do.
posted by jackbishop at 10:01 AM on January 5, 2019 [20 favorites]

Is no one really jumping on the fact that he said the shutdown could take years?

I don't suppose there's some legal loophole by which an extended shutdown could be construed as resurrecting the pre-Constitutional Congress of the Confederation—like by bringing up a 229-year-old outstanding debt which cannot be paid as a consequence of shutdown constraints—and then the thirteen original colonies could admit the other 37 states and DC and Puerto Rico and Guam and anyone else who wants to join the party, and then they all elect an 11th President of the Continental Congress?

Who I think would have to be David Tennant, since you'd count the War Doctor in the numbering this time.
posted by XMLicious at 10:10 AM on January 5, 2019 [18 favorites]

Trump will sign whatever's put in front of him

I checked to be sure and Trump has literally not vetoed a single thing so far in his presidency.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:11 AM on January 5, 2019 [13 favorites]

Article II, Section 4:

The President, Vice President, and all civil Officers of the United States shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other High Crimes and Misdemeanors.

Presidential Impeachment: The Legal Standard and Procedure

There are essentially four schools of thought concerning the meaning of these words, although there are innumerable subsets within those four categories.
Congressional Interpretation: The first general school of thought is that the standard enunciated by the Constitution is subject entirely to whatever interpretation Congress collectively wishes to make.
An Indictable Crime: The second view is that the Constitutional standard makes it necessary for a President to have committed an indictable crime in order to be subject to impeachment and removal from office.
Misdemeanor: The third approach is that an indictable crime is not required to impeach and remove a President.
Relating to the President's Official Duties: The fourth view is that an indictable crime is not required, but that the impeachable act or acts done by the President must in some way relate to his official duties.

posted by kirkaracha at 10:12 AM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

Speaking of RYP and Erik Prince...listening to this now: War College's podcast on Erik Prince's Terrible Plan for Afghanistan.
posted by MonkeyToes at 10:47 AM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

Trump will sign whatever's put in front of him

I checked to be sure and Trump has literally not vetoed a single thing so far in his presidency.

McConnell, for all the stories about how he’s dreamed of being a Majority Leader who can do big historic things, has expressly stated that he won’t bother bringing anything (and not just about the shutdown) to a vote if Trump won’t sign it. The thought of him having reached his dream job under what must certainly have been dream circumstances (callow lightweight Republicans in both the Oval Office and the Speaker’s chair) and then utterly abdicating any chance to do so... oh, that keeps me warm at night, I don’t mind telling you.
posted by Etrigan at 11:05 AM on January 5, 2019 [9 favorites]

The shutdown will last until McConnell allows a vote.

Turtle McConnell isn't likely to emerge from his shell any time soon. From Josh Dawsey's WaPo article above:

Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has largely stayed on the sidelines, leaving it to Pelosi and Schumer to resolve the wall dispute with Trump.[…]

McConnell was frustrated about Trump reversing himself on a short-term funding bill last month to keep the government open — legislation that Republicans thought the president would sign. The top Senate Republican has also complained to allies about how unreliable the president was as a negotiating partner and how the president listened to what McConnell viewed as unproductive voices, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

Schumer has sought to involve McConnell more, telling White House senior adviser Jared Kushner in a recent meeting that McConnell needed to be a more active participant. But McConnell has told advisers and other senators that he does not feel pressure to get more involved and that his members are not itching for the shutdown to end, the people said.

“He’s the leader of the Senate — part of this shutdown,” Schumer said in a brief interview Thursday. “When he just tosses the ball over to Trump, he’s somewhat complicit in the shutdown because Trump is organizing it, Trump is the impetus for it, and McConnell is going along.”

Josh Holmes, a McConnell adviser, said he saw his main role as keeping the caucus together.

“He knows exactly where the leverage points are on negotiations like this. He’s certainly not going to provide Democrats with an opportunity to exploit Republican divisions,” Holmes said. “So he’s going to provide a unified front here to get the president the best deal he can.”

Bloomberg has more: Top Republican Retreats in Chaos of Wall and Shutdown

Maybe McConnell's hoping to eventually make a deal with Schumer over judicial nominees or something once Trump gives him leeway to bargain. For now, he's happy to let the shutdown continue rather than risk the wrath of Trump's supporters.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:13 AM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

What I love about if-only comments like "If she had said 'impeach the motherfucker' and them listed some reasons I'd be all for it" is: do you know she didn't?

Turns out, she did! And I am thrilled to share this all over the place:

Rashida Tlaib and John Bonifaz, Detroit Free Press: "Now is the time to begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump"

We already have overwhelming evidence that the president has committed impeachable offenses, including, just to name a few: obstructing justice; violating the emoluments clause; abusing the pardon power; directing or seeking to direct law enforcement to prosecute political adversaries for improper purposes; advocating illegal violence and undermining equal protection of the laws; ordering the cruel and unconstitutional imprisonment of children and their families at the southern border; and conspiring to illegally influence the 2016 election through a series of hush money payments.

Originally Published 7:00 am EST January 3, 2019
Updated 11:54 am EST January 4, 2019

Thank you, Rep Tlaib!
posted by OnceUponATime at 11:32 AM on January 5, 2019 [81 favorites]

Michael Cohen : Donald Trump :: Robert Young Pelton : Erik Prince

That is all.

Perhaps straying off-topic but this is another reason to be grateful for the threads, 'cause wow, this turned out to be news to me. Everything I'd ever read from RYP gave the impression he was super critical of mercenaries. Seeing that he jumped into a business deal with Erik Prince undermines a lot of that. It's not like the whole world didn't know Erik Prince is garbage. I'm surprised, perhaps more than I should be.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 11:47 AM on January 5, 2019 [1 favorite]

FYI, itmfa.
posted by j_curiouser at 12:03 PM on January 5, 2019 [10 favorites]

Pence's role in all this is interesting, and worth illustrating through some tweets:

@seungminkim: Pence, WH officials, senior Hill aides meet to try and broker end to shutdown, altho few expect a breakthrough -- Pence doesn't even have Trump's blessing to float new numbers for a deal.

@daveweigel: Under-told story imo is how Pence has tried to fill the same influential VP role as Cheney and Biden, complete w shuttle diplomacy during big fights, but just doesn't have the clout. Recall him trying unsuccessfully to get ACA repeal bill thru Senate.

@pkcapitol: Also, Cheney & Biden didn’t negotiate with staff. They dealt with principals like McCain, McConnell, Reid. Trump has relegated his VP to talks with Hill staff.

@brianros1: Some of it is a political stature thing. Biden had years of being a Senate influencer, Cheney had been SecDef & House Whip. Pence was a backbench extremist on the Hill & a only somewhat popular governor. Add that to people knowing he can’t speak for Trump & you get no clout.

@seungminkim: Per Hill source, the same group who met today (Pence + top WH/administration officials, senior Hill aides) will meet again tomorrow. Our latest

We've seen this in a couple of fights, where Pence tries to take on an outsized role in negotiating with Congress, but ends up being completely ineffective: nobody can even trust Trump's word, so what's the point in trusting Pence's? So he's reduced to meeting with Congressional aides on a weekend in an exercise of futility. Meanwhile, WH Senior Staff (and Trump tomorrow) are off to Camp David for a retreat, which is a great look when government workers aren't getting paid.

----

So how did we get here? His staff tried to come up with a way to make him remember to be racist. NYT, The Border Wall: How a Potent Symbol Is Now Boxing Trump In

Before it became the chief sticking point in a government shutdown drama that threatens to consume his presidency at a critical moment, President Trump’s promise to build a wall on the southwestern border was a memory trick for an undisciplined candidate.

As Mr. Trump began exploring a presidential run in 2014, his political advisers landed on the idea of a border wall as a mnemonic device of sorts, a way to make sure their candidate — who hated reading from a script but loved boasting about himself and his talents as a builder — would remember to talk about getting tough on immigration, which was to be a signature issue in his nascent campaign.

“How do we get him to continue to talk about immigration?” Sam Nunberg, one of Mr. Trump’s early political advisers, recalled telling Roger J. Stone Jr., another adviser. “We’re going to get him to talk about he’s going to build a wall.”

But while the wall plays great with white evangelical voters, even hardline anti-immigration folks are worried that Trump's fixation on the wall is ruining their real agenda, like deporting Dreamers:

Now, Mr. Trump’s fixation with a border wall — the material embodiment of his keep-them-out immigration agenda — has run headlong into the new realities of divided government, pitting him against Democrats who reject the idea out of hand. The impasse is particularly remarkable given that even some immigration hard-liners do not regard the wall as their highest priority and fear that Mr. Trump’s preoccupation with it will prompt him to cut a deal that trades a relatively ineffectual measure for major concessions on immigration.

“I’ve always thought it created a danger that he would trade almost anything in order to get the wall — I think that’s still a potential danger,” said Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that argues for less immigration. “I’m still worried about that now.”

posted by zachlipton at 12:04 PM on January 5, 2019 [21 favorites]

The fourth view is that an indictable crime is not required, but that the impeachable act or acts done by the President must in some way relate to his official duties.

"The subjects of its jurisdiction are those offenses which proceed from the misconduct of public men, or, in other words, from the abuse or violation of some public trust. They are of a nature which may with peculiar propriety be denominated POLITICAL, as they relate chiefly to injuries done immediately to the society itself." -- Federalist 65.
posted by holgate at 12:09 PM on January 5, 2019 [4 favorites]

GCU Sweet and Full of Grace: "The only possible direct consequences of federal impeach are (a) removal from office; this is automatic upon conviction and (b) a bar against future federal service, which is optional. This is hard-coded into the constitution."

Also impeached presidents don't qualify for life time SS protection.
posted by Mitheral at 12:40 PM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

Why is that? It seems like bad policy to let ex-presidents get assassinated, even if they kinda had it coming.
posted by ryanrs at 1:30 PM on January 5, 2019 [4 favorites]

Call it a minimum of personal boundary enforcement.
posted by rhizome at 1:34 PM on January 5, 2019

Why is that? It seems like bad policy to let ex-presidents get assassinated, even if they kinda had it coming.

I imagine it's a deterrent.

Not that it matters. The next President will almost surely grant him protection (as he can do with anyone he sees fit.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:35 PM on January 5, 2019 [1 favorite]

So how did we get here? His staff tried to come up with a way to make him remember to be racist. NYT, The Border Wall: How a Potent Symbol Is Now Boxing Trump In

And right on cue, @realDonaldTrump tweets:

“Former @NYTimes editor Jill Abramson rips paper's ‘unmistakably anti-Trump’ bias.”*

Ms. Abramson is 100% correct. Horrible and totally dishonest reporting on almost everything they write. Hence the term Fake News, Enemy of the People, and Opposition Party!

* Trump's slightly altered the headline from Fox 'Mediabuzz' columnist Howard Kurtz's three-day old review of Abramson's new book, Merchants of Truth: The Business of News and the Fight for Facts, and CNN's Brian Stelter explains how this partisan article has been circulating in the rightwing noise machine. @JillAbramson responds, "Anyone who reads my book, Merchants of Truth, will find I revere @nytimes and praise its tough coverage of you"
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:37 PM on January 5, 2019 [9 favorites]

ok, my new fanfuturefic is Pelosi andTlaib playing good cop / bad cop on the dumbest mark in history using the threat of impeachment to get him to agree to whatever they want, and then, when Mueller drops his report, just immediately impeach his dumb ass anyway. at which point maybe enough GOP senators will be implicated or be made vulnerable that we have a shot at actually removing him.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:11 PM on January 5, 2019 [27 favorites]

The Republican plan is to gamble that enough people will be hurt badly enough by the shutdown that they'll demand that Congress just give him the wall. Unfortunately based on prior years' shutdowns and other political events, it's pretty likely to work. Cognitive dissonance means that the Republican base will continue to support Trump, even if it's damaging them, even in the next election.

Whereas the left has been shown time and time again to not show up to vote if they're even a little disillusioned or hurt.
posted by Candleman at 2:14 PM on January 5, 2019 [2 favorites]

“I’ve always thought it created a danger that he would trade almost anything in order to get the wall — I think that’s still a potential danger,” said Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a group that argues for less immigration. “I’m still worried about that now.”

What if the Democrats did, in fact, try to negotiate? I know, don't negotiate with terrorists, but that means negotiating in good faith. That's kind of not really what I'm talking about. What if we asked for the moon and told him he could have his wall if we can have medicare for all, better voting rights, increased minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich, DACA, etc etc etc. He'll never go for it, but it could help re frame the argument.
posted by Weeping_angel at 2:39 PM on January 5, 2019 [13 favorites]

The structure of that shitter-tweet is pure kettle logic: other people did the same thing; it's not a crime to do it; I never did it in the first place.

a.k.a. the well known "deny, deny, counter-accuse" formula. It only works if most of the audience is morons. And well...
posted by ctmf at 2:48 PM on January 5, 2019 [1 favorite]

The Republican plan is to gamble that enough people will be hurt badly enough by the shutdown that they'll demand that Congress just give him the wall.

That, or they use the shutdown as a good excuse to begin privatizing most government services and agencies.
posted by Thorzdad at 3:01 PM on January 5, 2019 [7 favorites]

ok, my new fanfuturefic is Pelosi andTlaib playing good cop / bad cop on the dumbest mark in history.

“I'm not in the censorship business. I don't like that language, I wouldn't use that language, but I wouldn't establish language standards for my colleagues,” Pelosi said.

Sounds about right for a 78-year-old grandmother.
posted by JackFlash at 3:16 PM on January 5, 2019 [23 favorites]

“I'm not in the censorship business. I don't like that language, I wouldn't use that language, but I wouldn't establish language standards for my colleagues,” Pelosi said.

See this is why we need Pelosi. She's appeasing the more traditional Dems who are shocked SHOCKED! by such language while giving a nod to the newcomers that she won't censor them. She's really good at her job.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 3:25 PM on January 5, 2019 [80 favorites]

At least we know that FoxNews knows how to pronounce "Tlaib" now.
posted by rhizome at 3:30 PM on January 5, 2019 [4 favorites]

What if we asked for the moon and told him he could have his wall if we can have medicare for all, better voting rights, increased minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich, DACA,

There was a wall-for-DACA deal proposed a year ago. Trump blew it up by insisting that it also radically restrict legal immigration (a Stephen Miller idea presumably). So it went nowhere.
posted by BungaDunga at 3:33 PM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

@JakeSherman: The sign to me these negotiations are nowhere: The White House thinks the Democrats would like a steel wall more than a concrete wall.

Lest you think that could be a joke or an exaggeration, Mulvaney pretaped a Meet the Press interview where he says exactly that: Mulvaney says WH offer to Democrats: Steel, not concrete:

"He was willing to agree...to take a concrete wall off the table. If that is not evidence of our willingness to solve the problem, because again what's driving this is the President's desire to change the conditions at the border, and if he has to give up a concrete wall and replace it with a steel fence in order to do that, so that Democrats can say, see, he's not building a wall anymore, that should help us move in the right direction...If that's not evidence of the President's desire to try and resolve this, I don't know what is."

We're so far off the deep end that I have no idea what's trolling and what's a legitimate belief that the choice of materials for the wall/fence will make a material difference to Democrats.
posted by zachlipton at 3:40 PM on January 5, 2019 [34 favorites]

Oh, and the Pentagon Chief of Staff just resigned with a two-sentence statement. I'm sure he's not looking at Trump threatening to declare a national emergency and invoke "the military version of eminent domain" (which, is that that a thing separate from normal eminent domain? Wouldn't that just be called called pillaging?) to build the wall.
posted by zachlipton at 3:45 PM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

The bad president was talking about "the military version of eminent domain" and now he's explaining that he's considering calling a national emergency to build the wall without approval and I'm morphing into Alex Jones over here.

For all we know, Trump’s soliciting advice from Alex Jones about how to do this.

WaPo’s Robert Costa reports: Trump confidant tells me he’s still talking today about declaring a national emergency if talks collapse... and he’s getting encouraged by several of his friends on hard right to do just that, knowing it’d be challenged immediately

NYT’s Maggie Haberman chimes in: More on what @costareports is hearing - Trump has been talking about it for several days, and White House counsel's office has taken a look at what is possible since the shutdown began and Trump revived talk of this inside White House.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:49 PM on January 5, 2019 [4 favorites]

Trump Has Left Himself No Way Out of This Mess

For their part, Republicans don’t feel that they can afford to make a reasonable trade because if you’re serious about wanting to Make America White Again, you know that a Wall doesn’t really do you much good except keeping your dwindling base happy. But actually giving away humane policies in trade for a Wall would only continue ongoing demographic trends, so the think tanks on the Right looking to reverse those trends cannot accept even something as mild as Wall-for-DACA.
...
But as in so many cases, Trump’s own incompetence undermines him. A long government shutdown means chaos at airports, including reduced security screenings. It means food stamp cuts that hurt a very large number of low-income whites who make up an enormous part of Trump’s base. It means damage to his own immigration policies. It means chaos at national parks, which tend to be in rural areas enjoyed by a large number of Trump voters. And, of course, it means that millions of Americans go longer and longer without paychecks, unable to afford rent and basic necessities.

A shutdown cannot continue indefinitely. Even Republicans in Congress cannot tolerate this situation much longer. The border wall is deeply unpopular, and Democrats have no earthly reason to cave into Trump’s demands.

The only way this reasonably ends is with Trump getting some minor pittance for border security including maybe some fencing, then loudly declaring to his base that he got his wall funded and hoping they’ll believe him. It’s not a great option for him, but it’s the best one he has.

And I want to go back to this great article by Greg Sargent, probably the reporter who's best grasped the entire Trump disaster from the beginning:

Among white evangelical Christians, support for the wall has risen nearly 10 points since Trump campaigned on it. In the most recent Public Religion Research Institute poll, in September 2018, a staggering 67 percent of them favor Trump’s wall.
...
Why is the wall so important to this segment of Trump’s base in particular? Robert Jones, the head of PRRI, told me that the wall powerfully symbolizes the deeper reasons they supported Trump in the first place.

“For white evangelicals who see the sun setting on white Christian dominance in the country, the wall is a powerful metaphor,” said Jones, who has spent many years analyzing the attitudes of religious voters, and published the book “The End of White Christian America.”

Jones added that this metaphor embodies a white evangelical view of the world “as a dangerous battleground” made up of “chosen insiders and threatening outsiders,” as well as an “embattled minority trope that is rooted deep within southern culture,” such as the “Lost Cause theology following the Civil War,” and in “evangelical culture generally.”

A shutdown over "the wall" as the symbol for White America is something they cannot compromise on, ever. Its the modern expression of Lee Atwater's infamous state's rights quote. And Trump knows his only base of power is propping up the the white supremacist Christian legacy at any cost.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:12 PM on January 5, 2019 [31 favorites]

Scott Ruesterholz
I want a Wall very badly, but I genuinely don't understand how this could be legal. If it is, could a future President declare anything national crisis and spend unlimited sums on it? IE, could a President Bernie say our healthcare system is an emergency and give Medicare to all?

Henry Olsen (EPPC)
Retweeted Scott Ruesterholz
Agreed. If the New Deal Court wouldn't let Truman seize steel mills during the Korean War when a strike idled them, I can't imagine how it will allow Trump to do this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youngstown_Sheet_%26_Tube_Co._v._Sawyer

---

When even the people at Ed Whelan's hack shop think it's BS...
posted by chris24 at 4:12 PM on January 5, 2019 [18 favorites]

The sense I get is that Congressional Dems don't want to "Boy who Cried Wolf" impeachment. sorry to bring this up again, but I really didn't see this point in the conversation upthread.

They also, like Justice Roberts, are thinking about public legitimacy and the consent of the governed. If and when impeachment happens, they want/need/think it's necessary that the public see it as a legitimate exercise of power.

This was evident in both the Clinton impeachment and the Nixon epi-impeachment; investigators presented evidence and argued the cases in public, to the public. Congresspeople at the time spoke and acted as if the body politic were the jury. This thinking was evident in Obama's actions when he was careful with the power of the Presidency. Right or wrong, those are the nerds that are in Congress right now, and that's at least part of how they think.

In one of Ezra Klein's podcasts he quoted a conversation he'd had with an unnamed Congressperson, who said: "You're saying that impeachment isn't a question of legality or criminality, you're saying it's a political question. I'm a politician; I'm saying it's a legal question." as in, he needs to have some criminal evidence to politically justify the impeachment process.

problem with this line of thinking is that a) wolves are here and b) there's criminal evidence. But I still think that what's holding them back is a lack of public will. Which is why I agree with OUAT, talk about the WHY of impeachment.

... the misconduct of public men, or, in other words, from the abuse or violation of some public trust. Federalist 65

For a TV President example: Pres Bartlett lying about his medical condition wasn't a crime in any way; even lying about it on his campaign to get elected President wasn't illegal; but it was arguably an abuse of the public trust. When the Pres from Scandal had an affair it wasn't even a little bit illegal, etc., you get the gist. Being blackmailed is not a crime, but it's a very good reason for removal from office.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 4:14 PM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

Yesterday I learned that we can’t process the new hire paperwork for international grad students with teaching assistantships, because the university uses eVerify as part of that process. Classes start a week from Monday.
posted by leahwrenn at 4:26 PM on January 5, 2019 [33 favorites]

A week ago, Bella Donna linked to a Daily Beast story that included a profile of Yesica, an El Salvadoran asylum-seeker who's been imprisoned in Houston for over two years. I'd like to give you all a little more information about her situation.

Yesica's father, a police officer, was murdered by MS-13. Soon after, her mother and her two younger brothers were granted asylum. They are sponsored and housed by my mom's church (although they worship at a different, nearby Catholic church). My mom has been very active with the family, helps with the boys' school issues and goes to their soccer games. Yesica's mom has been to my house. The family seems to be doing okay, all things considered. Yesica's mom is hoping to obtain a green card; she is very eager to be able to work.

As far as I understand Yesica's case, she was not granted asylum along her brothers because she was over 18. She was stopped both times she tried to cross the border, and the reattempt is considered a felony. She has an attorney (pro-bono) working on her asylum, and our senator immigrants' rights groups are doing what they can. She's recently been transferred to the Core Civic detention center, still in Houston. She's been there before and I understand the conditions are better than Joe Corley Detention Facility described in the Daily Beast article. There is a volunteer in Houston named Hope who tries to visit her regularly. Her family is not able to make the trip.

Here's another article from the Houston Chronicle. Chicago Religious Freedom Network has an online petition going where you can read more about her situation.

ICE, of course, isn't going to respond to a petition but it's a nice way to spread awareness. If people want to help, my mom suggests donating to the Interfaith Community for Detained Immigrants. They are providing for social work and medical and living expenses for the family.
posted by hydrophonic at 4:28 PM on January 5, 2019 [52 favorites]

Even if it destroys our country, we cannot build this wall. Better no union than for us to defile this sacred land with some white supremacist hate symbol.

Better heaven fall than penny for wall.
posted by getting_back_on_track at 5:08 PM on January 5, 2019 [19 favorites]

WaPo’s Robert Costa reports: Trump confidant tells me he’s still talking today about declaring a national emergency if talks collapse... and he’s getting encouraged by several of his friends on hard right to do just that, knowing it’d be challenged immediately

Will Saletan (Slate)
Retweeted Robert Costa
He will do this, precisely because he knows he'll be stopped. He doesn't want the responsibility of governing, and he knows he's screwed in the shutdown fight. This stunt lets him show his base that he's fighting for them.

Julian Sanchez
Retweeted Will Saletan
Had the same thought: a face-saving way to surrender in a game of shutdown chicken that’s not going as he hoped. Concede the funding fight on the pretense he can just do it by executive fiat, then either fume in mock shock & horror when it turns out he can’t, OR......scrounge some pittance from unallocated funds, and pretend that the wall got built, as he already does half the time anyway. Which shouldn’t be read as understating what a gross, impeachable abuse the attempt would be.

---

Constitutional crisis to avoid ego injury.
posted by chris24 at 5:25 PM on January 5, 2019 [44 favorites]

If I remember correctly, cabinet secretaries earn years of mockery from Trump for bicycle-related injuries: Betsy DeVos undergoes surgery after breaking bone in bike accident.
posted by peeedro at 5:38 PM on January 5, 2019

WaPo: Federal workers in Washington aren’t the only ones going without pay

Based on the maps in this article, Tester’s overperformance in Montana makes a whole lot more sense.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 5:50 PM on January 5, 2019

He will do this, precisely because he knows he'll be stopped.

I wish I could believe there was any force in our country that could stop the total subversion of the Constitution, but I’m darned if I know who it is.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 5:51 PM on January 5, 2019 [15 favorites]

NBC: Trump Admin Lawyers Working Out Details of Using National Emergency to Build Wall—Administration lawyers are meeting to discuss whether Trump can declare a national emergency to build a border wall with Defense Department resources.

As the government shutdown drags on, lawyers from the White House, the Department of Homeland Security and the Pentagon are meeting to discuss whether President Donald Trump can declare a national emergency to deploy troops and Defense Department resources to build his border wall, according to two sources with knowledge of the discussions.

One of the sources, a senior administration official, said the White House has kept this option on the table for some time, but is now considering it more seriously.

"Depending on the severity of crisis, it’s always been an option. Now that things are getting worse, we are looking at how that could be operationalized and used to confront the crisis," the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The official said the talks are ongoing and will continue over the weekend as details are worked out.[…]

Asked if the Department of Defense was open to the idea of using its resources to build the wall, the official simply said the president would use his power as the commander in chief.

The official did not rule out that the Federal Emergency Management Administration, a part of DHS, may also be used as part of a national emergency response.

Either the Trump administration wants us to think they're taking this insane idea seriously—this story is being leaked everywhere today—or they're genuinely taking it seriously (it has Stephen Miller's stink all over it). In any case, it's a desperate fallback position if Trump caves on shutdown negotiations.

P.S. Silver lining, from CNN: Donald Trump is less popular than Nancy Pelosi for the first time during his presidency
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:22 PM on January 5, 2019 [41 favorites]

I wish I could believe there was any force in our country that could stop the total subversion of the Constitution, but I’m darned if I know who it is.

Congress holds the purse-strings, which is why Trump is talking about State of Emergency powers instead of "hey guys allocate me 5B thx." I mean, he is doing the latter, but he doesn't have many options when they say no.

I do think the $10K raises for the cabinet people the other day was at least partially prove that he could allocate money from somewhere during a shutdown, i.e. when other people are not receiving paychecks, he makes it so that some are. I think everything else he's been doing in this has also been test-runs for powers beyond a disabled Article I Congress.
posted by rhizome at 6:26 PM on January 5, 2019

Asked if the Department of Defense was open to the idea of using its resources to build the wall,

I'm not in the financial side, but I'm in the DoD and I think they couldn't even do that. The money is programmed for certain things by congress via the NDAA. I can't pay for office chairs or build a new building out of the money they gave me to fix ships or from the money they gave me to pay people.

On the other hand, when most people would read "lawyers [...] are meeting to discuss whether President Donald Trump can..." they would think they are determining if the law allows it. More likely it's only about "what could anyone do about it."
posted by ctmf at 6:37 PM on January 5, 2019 [28 favorites]

The UN Is Investigating the US for Potential Human Rights Violations. Trump Is Stonewalling. – Mother Jones

The State Department has not responded to official complaints from the rapporteurs since May 2018, leaving at least 13 formal queries unanswered. What’s more, the Trump administration has not invited the UN to monitor human rights issues inside the country, a break from past presidents. The move “sends a dangerous signal to authoritarian regimes around the world,” the Guardian writes.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:46 PM on January 5, 2019 [20 favorites]

Constitutional crisis to avoid ego injury. Trump ~~declares~~ is national emergency.

itmfa
posted by petebest at 6:47 PM on January 5, 2019 [16 favorites]

I picked a hell of a week to watch Fahrenheit 11/9. Now I can't stop thinking that Trump's declaring a national emergency would be his Reichstag fire moment.
posted by Rykey at 6:49 PM on January 5, 2019 [5 favorites]

I do think the $10K raises for the cabinet people the other day was at least partially prove that he could allocate money from somewhere during a shutdown, i.e. when other people are not receiving paychecks, he makes it so that some are.

FWIW, the raises were already scheduled, allocated and in the pipeline long before the shutdown. I believe the raises were authorized back in August or thereabout. Terrible optics, though, for sure.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:50 PM on January 5, 2019 [5 favorites]

AP: Shutdown Spares Federal Park Rangers at Site in Trump Hotel

Yet despite the federal government shutdown, a historic clock tower at the Trump International Hotel remained open Friday for its handful of visitors, staffed by green-clad National Park Service rangers.[…]

The Trump administration appears to have gone out of its way to keep the attraction in the federally owned building that houses the Trump hotel open and staffed with National Park Service rangers, even as other federal agencies shut all but the most essential services.

Amanda Osborn, a spokeswoman for the General Services Administration, which owns the building and leases it to the Trump Organization, said in an email that the shutdown exemption for the comparatively little-known clock tower was “unrelated to the facility’s tenant” — the Trump business. The agency says the law that put it in charge of the site obligates it to keep it open, even as federal Washington closes around it.

Just another case of the rules not applying to Trump, nothing unusual.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:04 PM on January 5, 2019 [36 favorites]

The raises were also put on hold for the duration of the shutdown in an announcement late last night after they were made public.

Which is an interesting twist, because barely anyone noticed that decision late Friday night, while there was a lot more time during the day for the outrage of the raises during the shutdown to sink in.
posted by zachlipton at 7:06 PM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

I came hunting through the megathread for MeFi's take on Pelosi's recent statement re: Black Lives Matter
but can see no trace, so here it is.

“Do you support the Black Lives Matter movement?”
"I support the recognition that black lives matter, for sure, and I have incorporated that in many of my statements. All lives matter... we really have to redress past grievances in terms of how we addressed the African-American community." (emphasis mine)
posted by AnhydrousLove at 7:11 PM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

That is perhaps the most milquetoast statement of lukewarm support I can imagine.
posted by Justinian at 7:17 PM on January 5, 2019 [9 favorites]

I'm shocked she didn't throw in a Blue Lives Matter as well.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 7:19 PM on January 5, 2019 [5 favorites]

Honestly this week has made me want to tear my hair out. How the fuck can you be the Democratic leader in 2019 and say “all lives matter.” Those are not words that have any fucking meaning beyond being a racist shibboleth and they never have. It was always racist denial dressed up as moral scolding, and repeating them as though they have actual merit validates the arguments of racists, which is what they want, and it is fucking craven and stupid to pretend otherwise.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:30 PM on January 5, 2019 [45 favorites]

How many racists you figure you got there in the good ole USA? more than 50%???
posted by some loser at 7:32 PM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

Probably. I am just...I mean. I was annoyed at the Leroy Jenkins-ing* from a freshman yesterday — Christ was it yesterday? — but this is like...you’re the general and you just let slip that maybe you don’t have your most active supporters’ backs? That maybe you’re willing to throw them under the bus, again? What the actual fuck is wrong with you

Beyond the apparent racism, I mean

*all credit to pbo for that
posted by schadenfrau at 7:41 PM on January 5, 2019 [3 favorites]

It seems to me that the default assumption should be that everyone is racist, everywhere. And that certainly for white people in the US and many PoC even, you can assume beyond that some degree of participation in white supremacy. I have yet to come across any evidence that these aren't useful heuristics.
posted by XMLicious at 7:42 PM on January 5, 2019 [13 favorites]

How the fuck can you be the Democratic leader in 2019 and say “all lives matter.”

Because you have to work with the special snowflakes?
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:42 PM on January 5, 2019 [7 favorites]

more than 50%???

Actually, no. But factor in the gerrymandering and disenfranchisement and plain ol cheating and big money gonna corporate news media and it sure as hell looks like it.
posted by petebest at 7:43 PM on January 5, 2019 [2 favorites]

Honestly this week has made me want to tear my hair out. How the fuck can you be the Democratic leader in 2019 and say “all lives matter.”

She's 78. Here's her being an adult next to a live JFK. Younger leadership is needed.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:50 PM on January 5, 2019 [10 favorites]

I mean, ok. But my mom is 65. She’s still a microaggression machine, but she’s working on it, and she would never say “all lives matter.” And she’s not the leader of the goddamn Democratic Party.

There isn’t an alternative for speaker. Pelosi is still the war rig. But there’s also no excuse for this. And imo she needs to demonstrate that she understands why. I’m nobody on the internet but like...also this isn’t rocket science. This is pretty obvious.

I’m going to go yell at the moon or something.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:58 PM on January 5, 2019 [20 favorites]

I think that somebody who grew up white during the era of enforced segregation will be more likely to not realize that "all lives matter" isn't an appropriate phrase. I don't think that's ageism, just a fact. I'm also happy to say that she's super racist, but I think "ageism" is a much more charitable take.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:58 PM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

I didn't see this link posted yet, but the mystery be already solved for all I know: A Holiday Mystery: Why Did John Roberts Intervene in the Mueller Probe? -- We’re about to find out why the chief justice of the Supreme Court decided to get involved in the special counsel’s investigation. (Nelso W. Cunningham for Politico Magazine, Dec. 30, 2018)

A mysterious grand jury subpoena case has been working itself through the D.C. courts since August. Doughty reporting by Politico linked the grand jury case to special counsel Robert Mueller. Some of us, connecting the dots, wondered whether Mueller’s antagonist in this secret subpoena battle might be President Donald Trump himself. Speculation heightened two weeks ago when the D.C. Circuit cleared an entire floor of reporters assembled for the oral argument, in order to protect the identity of the litigants.

Four days later, the D.C. Circuit judges burst the speculative bubble with a decision that halfway revealed the identity of the party litigating against the government: not Trump, but an unnamed corporation (“the Corporation”) owned by an unnamed foreign state (“Country A”). Although the case is still plenty mysterious (What foreign state? What records of what transactions? Why the hard-fought litigation?), the evident fact that Trump was not directly involved in the litigation seemingly drained further proceedings of direct suspense. Mueller watchers headed off for the holidays.

And then, last week, on the Sunday before Christmas, Chief Justice John Roberts personally intervened in this matter.

That’s right: The chief justice of the United States himself issued an order on a Sunday, in this very case. If you think that’s highly unusual, you’re right. And the action he took was equally unusual. At least for the moment calling into question the unanimous decisions of the courts below, the chief justice blocked the District Court’s order requiring the foreign corporation to comply with the grand jury subpoena, until the government’s lawyers could respond to the Corporation’s briefings.

So now, in abrupt fashion, Mueller’s investigation has suddenly reached the Supreme Court, and with the personal attention of the chief justice, no less.

What does this all mean? Let’s try to unpack it.

posted by filthy light thief at 8:07 PM on January 5, 2019 [18 favorites]

Those words of hers, not just "all lives matters", but perhaps even worse, the "past grievances", how many choices do you see? I suppose she could be grossly uninformed... but this is Pelosi we are talking about, I find that implausible. That leaves conscious or unconscious racism. I find it hard to believe she consciously chooses a racist stance. So... old enough that she can't shake off some of those broken ideas? It's the least bad answer, even if it's ageism.
posted by bcd at 8:08 PM on January 5, 2019 [6 favorites]

Oh god, the autocrat is actively trying to identify a Reichstag to burn and we're playing another episode of "Nancy Pelosi: Threat or Menace?"

Let's just not.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:09 PM on January 5, 2019 [122 favorites]

HuffPo: Mainstream Media Is Blowing Its Coverage Of Elizabeth Warren’s DNA Test |
Tribal leaders and Native people say the senator is an ally — and they support her look at her ancestry. But hardly anyone asked them.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:11 PM on January 5, 2019 [33 favorites]

Pelosi is simply being smart. She says “yes I support Black Lives Matter,” and it becomes the focus of numerous articles and Sunday news shows—a distraction from the agenda of ending the shutdown and keeping the focus on Trump’s misbehavior.

You saw how one new rep mentioning impeachment led to lots diversion from the most urgent issue at hand.

Pelosi been fighting for civil rights and women’s rights for longer than many of have been alive. Give the lady the lady a break!
posted by haiku warrior at 8:13 PM on January 5, 2019 [21 favorites]

What’s wrong isn’t calling this president “motherfucker” -
What’s wrong is calling this motherfucker “president”
posted by growabrain at 8:31 PM on January 5, 2019 [89 favorites]

Pelosi is simply being smart.

Just like Donald Trump was simply being smart when he pretended to not know who the KKK were in a television interview, according to my pro-Nationalist relatives this holiday season!

The more fundamentally important thing isn't litigating what degree of racism our first Italian-American Speaker of the House was expressing here; what's important is acknowledging that we're embracing white supremacy ourselves with the “of her time” construction or any other pretext that lets us look the other way from the political sausage-making on this.

Even if we're determinedly choosing the lesser of two white supremacies at every opportunity, this is the reason we have to be eternally vigilant against white supremacy and give no quarter: because the foundations and infrastructure set up by politicians who openly called themselves white supremacists a hundred-plus years ago insidiously suck you in and force you to participate in their revenant undeath, even if your middle name isn't “Beauregard” and you're not their obsequiously willing tool.

It's a quarter-century until the demographic transition when whites will become a statistical minority. Enthusiasm for and flirtation with aspects of white supremacy are only going to become more prevalent, and more politically advantageous for “addressing the concerns of the white working class,” on the way there and beyond.

It's vital that we white Americans do not act like all the generations before us and propagate “oh well that was a little bit of a problem when I was younger but it's pretty much all gone, now!” attitudes. As my relatives do, one of whom—a person who was born during the late Jim Crow Era and at a time when we had concentration camps full of Asian-American citizens and immigrants^† and shortly before our renewed post-war enthusiasm for state-sanctioned abduction of Native American children to put them in residential schools—literally said to me “The white supremacy stuff is just a passing phase!” in the context of discussing Charlottesville.

† A WWII round-up carried out using emergency wartime executive orders cited by Trump as a justification for planned Holocaust-scale round-ups of undocumented immigrants and banning of Muslims and hence voted for by my relatives, after eight years of them parroting Fox News talking points about Obama's terrible, terrible presidential overreach via executive orders which in contrast did mild things like re-shuffle the prosecution priorities for DOJ attorneys relative to visa violations. I could add so many more footnotes like this...
posted by XMLicious at 9:50 PM on January 5, 2019 [27 favorites]

Pelosi is a politician. It's her job to know what symbols mean. She knows what "all lives matter" means. She's choosing to appeal to white supremacists over supporters of Black Lives Matter. Clinton did the same thing with his Sister Souljah play. Maybe it's a smart move politically for her party but I don't see how democrats win elections without enthusiastic turnout from African Americans. This won't cost Pelosi anything in terms of her own political career. She's a democratic representative from San Francisco. She will be reelected until she decides to quit. She's the speaker of the house at a time when democrats have to rely on unity. So no cost to her but she knew what she was saying.
posted by rdr at 10:06 PM on January 5, 2019 [18 favorites]

"HuffPo: Mainstream Media Is Blowing Its Coverage Of Elizabeth Warren’s DNA Test |
Tribal leaders and Native people say the senator is an ally — and they support her look at her ancestry. But hardly anyone asked them."

and there's lots of people who still have problems, as far as I can tell. I've seen a lot of pushback against this specific article and the attempt to pretend that there's any sort of homogenous opinion on the issue more generally.

Here are some of the examples I've seen. More. There's a lot being said, and I would not be taking that HuffPo article as sufficient to dismiss the issue entirely.
posted by AnhydrousLove at 10:27 PM on January 5, 2019 [9 favorites]

If the New Deal Court wouldn't let Truman seize steel mills during the Korean War when a strike idled them, I can't imagine how it will allow Trump to do this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Youngstown_Sheet_%26_Tube_Co._v._Sawyer

One interesting thing about this case is that when Truman tried to seize the mills, the Supreme Court slapped an injunction on the seizure and heard the case immediately, but Trump breaks the emoluments clause and two years later we're still waiting for the case to wind it's way through the courts.
posted by xammerboy at 10:45 PM on January 5, 2019 [26 favorites]

Interesting that people didn't seem to take much notice of Talib's article when I posted it upthread...I see people are loving it more now on 2nd posting. These things take time to sink into every level, it's important to signal boost them.
posted by agregoli at 6:29 AM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

I didn't realize it had already been posted when I re-posted it. I hadn't clicked through. But someone quoted those bits about impeachable offenses at me on Facebook when I gave my same grumble about sounding like we wanted to impeach for no reason, and I thought the best thing I could do was quote those bits at everyone else, everywhere on the internet I saw people discussing Tlaib's cuss. Which I did. A lot of copying and pasting yesterday! I like that she created an opportunity to talk about those issues. I got a little frustrated at people who wanted to talk about when and where swearing is okay, instead.
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:04 AM on January 6, 2019 [4 favorites]

Silver lining, from CNN: Donald Trump is less popular than Nancy Pelosi for the first time during his presidency

Rephrase that as "Nancy Pelosi: the woman who's more popular than the president right now" and he'd go into screaming fits on Twitter.

... If he noticed it, because without his name in the headline, I'm not sure he'd read that many words.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:42 AM on January 6, 2019 [15 favorites]

Snoop's message to furloughed employees during the government shutdown is really quite something

Language police warning for weak willed elected Democrats and the bothsides-but-really-just-the-women media.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:29 AM on January 6, 2019 [51 favorites]

@davidaxelrod

Is anyone talking about the Mattis letter? About Cohen, Manafort or the probe? @realDonaldTrump is getting just what he wants out of this shutdown fight. He is the center of attention in his own, made up drama, for which he is getting high fives from his noisy base. For now.

posted by ZeusHumms at 8:30 AM on January 6, 2019 [17 favorites]

Is anyone talking about the Mattis letter? About Cohen, Manafort or the probe? @realDonaldTrump is getting just what he wants out of this shutdown fight. He is the center of attention in his own, made up drama, for which he is getting high fives from his noisy base. For now.

Mattis was weeks ago which might as well be 1937. The Mueller probe will be an ongoing tangled, grueling sideshow for possibly forever. The shutdown is the GOP deciding in unison that the federal government indefinitely does not exist and if allowed to continue permanently (as they want it to) will arguably mean the end of the USA as we know it.

Axelrod doesn't know shit about shit.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:46 AM on January 6, 2019 [18 favorites]

Meanwhile, the AP reports John Bolton is conducting his own Middle East diplomacy as he tours the region: Trump Adviser Outlines Conditions For US Pullout From Syria

President Donald Trump’s national security adviser said Sunday that the American military withdrawal from northeastern Syria is conditioned on defeating the remnants of the Islamic State group and on Turkey assuring the safety of U.S.-allied Kurdish fighters.

John Bolton said there is no timetable for the pullout, but insisted the military presence is not an unlimited commitment.

“There are objectives that we want to accomplish that condition the withdrawal,” Bolton told reporters in Jerusalem before heading to Turkey on Monday, where he will be joined by the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford. “The timetable flows from the policy decisions that we need to implement.”

Those conditions, he said, included defeating what’s left of IS in Syria and protecting Kurdish militias who have fought alongside U.S. troops against the extremist group.[…]

Bolton said U.S. troops would remain at the critical area of al-Tanf, in southern Syria, to counter growing Iranian activity in the region. He defended the legal basis for the deployment, saying it’s justified by the president’s constitutional authority.

@realDonaldTrump hasn't tweeted about Syria this year, but today the account congratulated Egypt on opening "the biggest Cathedral in the Middle East" and bragged about killing USS Cole bomber Jamal al-Badawi targeted in Yemen air strike (BBC).
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:08 AM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

Since I live in a non-state, many functions of which are directly administered by the federal government, this is a super-fun time. Has anyone talked about how DC can't issue marriage licenses right now? And how parts of our actual city infrastructure are closed?

There are over 700k people in the District alone who have been continually screwed over by this administration, whose immigration status has been threatened, whose livelihoods have been cut out from under them, whose careers have been ruined.

This is just icing on the cake for a lot of us. I'm sure having professionals leave civil service is a net benefit to the revanchist white evangelicals who appear to comprise the majority of the Republican party, but good grief sometimes it really is amazing the extent to which this absurd brinksmanship can sink.
posted by aspersioncast at 9:18 AM on January 6, 2019 [27 favorites]

Quit funding internet service in the White House and we'll have a budget signed within hours. Or find some other way to inconvenience Donnie From Queens directly, and he'll pester McConnell into holding a vote ASAP.

...hey, can anyone convince the local McDonald's to shut down? Does it rely on any federal services?
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:34 AM on January 6, 2019 [5 favorites]

How Mark Burnett and 'The Apprentice' Sold Trump - The Atlantic

“I alone can fix it” made sense in the context of The Apprentice, where Trump was shown to “fix it”—week in, week out.

posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:35 AM on January 6, 2019

Quit funding internet service in the White House and we'll have a budget signed within hours.

He watches tv all day. Cut the cable.
posted by Thorzdad at 9:36 AM on January 6, 2019 [21 favorites]

Is he even really the one to be negotiating with? Get Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh on the phone and cut out this useless middleman. It wouldn't be any more productive, but at least you'd be talking to the people making the decision. {/}
posted by mrgoat at 9:42 AM on January 6, 2019 [26 favorites]

Sulking in The Insinuation room: Pelosi plays chess while Trump is in the corner picking his nose
posted by growabrain at 9:47 AM on January 6, 2019 [7 favorites]

Yglesias made a couple interesting gov shutdown points on "The Weeds" podcast:

1. People generally think the shutdown creates a free for all environment where anyone can do anything they want. In reality, it's the opposite. You need licenses, forms, applications, etc. to do most things.

2. Republicans frame the shutdown as way of rewarding the good (essential) employees (those with badges) versus punishing the bad employees (bureaucrats).

3. The shutdown is not over the wall. The shutdown is happening because Trump wants 5 billion for a wall for nothing in return. The shutdown is over his refusal to negotiate.

4. At this point, Trump has consistently reneged on previous deals where he's made broad promises. This means any deal with Trump needs all the details to be explicit before it's made. Trump is extraordinarily bad at details.

I think the 3rd point is the one that's being overlooked the most by the media. Regardless of what you think about the wall, Trump has not presented Democrats with a good faith offer. If he really wants a wall, or anything really, he would offer something in return for it. Trump's demand for a wall is unacceptable by design.
posted by xammerboy at 9:56 AM on January 6, 2019 [48 favorites]

In case anyone was wondering whether Trump thought the shutdown and wall were good for him, I just saw a 30 second Trump campaign ad on my youtube app that talked about how Democrats want us to be overrun by MS-13 and that the only way to protect our families and country is by building the wall. You're supposed to text 88022 to support the wall. I wasn't able to get a link to the video, just the website for the text message campaign.
posted by runcibleshaw at 10:38 AM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

I have actually been up to the top of the Old Post Office. You get led through a few weird back corridors after the security check and get to see the inside of the gaudy-as-fuck Hotel Emoluments from the lift. I'm still for dumping trash outside the hotel entrance, but the tower itself would be an interesting place in which to hold a polite sit-in protest.
posted by holgate at 10:43 AM on January 6, 2019 [6 favorites]

If he really wants a wall, or anything really, he would offer something in return for it.

Right now, he's offering "a functional government" in return for it. And McConnell's going along with the idea that that's an equitable trade.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:46 AM on January 6, 2019 [6 favorites]

Trump campaign ad on my youtube app that talked about how Democrats want us to be overrun by MS-13 and that the only way to protect our families and country is by building the wall. You're supposed to text 88022 to support the wall.

This has been your hourly reminder of the absolute failure of modernity.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:47 AM on January 6, 2019 [13 favorites]

Two of the sources, who are federal officials, described the sick outs as protests of the paycheck delay. One called it the "blue flu," a reference to the blue shirts worn by transportation security officers who screen passengers and baggage at airport security checkpoints.

People have been yowling for years about the onerous and often racist TSA, being howled back that it's absolutely necessary for national security and border security and it's unpatriotic to behave otherwise.

Now we're being told to believe the TSA are not at all essential without a wall, a fake solution to an exaggerated problem that everyone knows will not work.
posted by adept256 at 10:49 AM on January 6, 2019 [34 favorites]

People have been yowling for years about the onerous and often racist TSA, being howled back that it's absolutely necessary for national security and border security and it's unpatriotic to behave otherwise.

Welp, I guess I'm unpatriotic. I flew from Seattle to San Francisco a couple of weeks ago, and they let us keep our shoes on and leave all of our electronics in our carry-on bags. Which suggests we could always keep our shoes on and leave our electronics in our bags. It's security theater.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:09 AM on January 6, 2019 [62 favorites]

how Democrats want us to be overrun by MS-13 and that the only way to protect our families and country is by building the wall.

In 2016, the Obama-appointed US Attorney for Boston, the FBI, Massachusetts State Police and the police in several Massachusetts sanctuary cities (in particular, Boston, Somerville, Chelsea and Everett) ended an investigation into local MS-13 gangs (who had killed three teenagers in about nine months in East Boston, killed an innocent young mother standing at her window in a gun battle in Chelsea and almost killed an innocent bystander in a hail of gunfire inside a subway train in East Boston) by arresting 61 alleged MS-13 members. Since then, 49 have either pleaded or been found guilty.

Last month, the Boston Globe reports, the Trump-appointed US Attorney for Boston said MS-13 in eastern Massachusetts had been "all but eradicated" by the sweep and convictions.

All done without Wall and without much (if any) involvement by ICE. Of course, it will be harder to replicate now because the investigations depended in part on the help of members of the cities' Central American communities, who trusted the local cops enough. Would they be willing to do that now?
posted by adamg at 11:15 AM on January 6, 2019 [25 favorites]

All done without Wall and without much (if any) involvement by ICE. Of course, it will be harder to replicate now because the investigations depended in part on the help of members of the cities' Central American communities, who trusted the local cops enough. Would they be willing to do that now?

When the GOP and its base says "MS-13" they mean and have always meant "mexicans." No reasoned argument about how to actually control the actual MS-13 will sway them as long as they still have to see brown people in their living space. To respond with anything but "fuck off Nazi" is to grant unearned good faith.

Likewise with arguing the utility of the wall. Trump's pinned Game Of Thrones themed tweet from earlier today with his horrific visage looming over a "wall" made up of pointed spears says it all: they don't care about it "working," they just want the spectacle of a field of spikes for nonwhite people to die on. If only one person is impaled then it will all be worth it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:27 AM on January 6, 2019 [22 favorites]

Re: Trump just became less popular than Pelosi.

Let that sink in. Think of all the incompetance and corruption and malice and CRIMES that trump has exhibited for years. And Pelosi? A woman, a democrat.

That is how big the uphill climb for Warren (or Harris or klob etc) will have. Trump, the 2nd worst man on earth alive today starts out presumptively ahead of any woman in leadership in popular opinion.

EDIT: on preview, now pelosi is milkshake duck "all lives matter" unfortunate. We whites really can't stand anyone counting but us, and any responsibility for the present.

The past isn't dead its not even the past. -yoda/fualkner
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 11:30 AM on January 6, 2019 [19 favorites]

To put the $5.7 billion demand for the wall in context, I'm trying to figure out a ballpark estimate of what that money would buy in terms of a colossal golden statue of Donald Trump, which would serve as an equally useful anti-immigration measure and monument to human folly.

The largest chunk of gold you can buy is Good Delivery bullion, aka the classic big ass bar of gold. These are usually 400 ounces and are worth about $500,000 on the market. The $5.7 billion would buy 11,400 bars. At about 45 cubic inches apiece, this turns out to be a little more than 500,000 cubic inches total, or about 300 cubic feet.

That would make for a 2001-style monolith of solid 24 karat gold with these dimensions: 20 feet tall, 5 feet wide, and 3 feet deep. I'm assuming here that Donald Trump is approximately the same shape.

Alternatively: the largest statue in the world was completed a few months ago in India. It's 600 feet high, and cost $420 million (nice). Thirteen of those, spaced 150 miles apart along the southern border, might be a better use of funds than a single colossus.
posted by theodolite at 11:42 AM on January 6, 2019 [15 favorites]

[Not The Onion]
Area couple shocked at congresswoman's language
posted by growabrain at 11:47 AM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

Do we carve, "Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!" on all thirteen statues, or only if we go with the big one?
posted by bcd at 11:53 AM on January 6, 2019 [11 favorites]

Hey everybody, two Republicans just said stupid, unreasonable things in defense of racism to blame Democrats for causing the shutdown!

Graham: GOP wants a Democrat ‘that’s not crazy’ for shutdown talks (Politico)

“We’ll have offers on the table when we find somebody that’s not crazy to deal with,” Graham said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “We’re not going to put any offers on the table as long as people in charge of these negotiations accuse all of us who want a wall of being a racist.”

He did not refer to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) by name, but criticized her answer to a question of whether she would be open to putting one dollar toward funding the border wall. “A dollar? A dollar? Yeah, one dollar,” she told reporters Thursday.

Graham expressed willingness to negotiate instead with Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who appeared on the CBS program before him.

“When you see Dick Durbin and others in the room, not a bunch of staffers, when you see this rhetoric that those who want to build a wall are racist stop, when you see the idea one dollar’s enough for the wall, when that stuff ends, the real negotiations begin,” he said.

and

Sarah Sanders: Valuing life is ‘what sets America apart from every other country’ (Wapo)

As the shutdown continues, Wallace pointed out to Sanders that there would be continuing and accelerating negative effects for those government workers who aren’t being paid. Does President Trump think this is worth the border wall fight? Wallace asked.

“The president certainly doesn’t want any of those things to happen,” Sanders replied, adding that Trump also didn’t want to have to call widows of police officers killed by immigrants who are in the country illegally, as he did last week.

“This shouldn’t happen in this country, particularly when we have things that we know can help prevent it,” Sanders said. “Every life — that’s what sets America apart from every other country; we value life. That is what makes us unique.”
...
He played a clip of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen saying that more than 3,000 “special-interest aliens” had been stopped at the southern border in the past fiscal year.

“But special-interest aliens are just people who come from countries that have ever produced a terrorist. They’re not terrorists themselves,” Wallace said. “And the State Department says that there is, quote, their words, ‘no credible evidence of any terrorist coming across the border from Mexico.’”

That’s true: The State Department made precisely that determination when it was helmed by Trump then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

"We know that roughly, nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists come into our country illegally,” Sanders replied, “and we know that our most vulnerable point of entry is at our southern border."

"Wait, wait, wait,” Wallace said. “I know the statistic . . . Do you know where those 4,000 people come … where they’re captured? Airports."

I for one am (I mean I would be but this is their stock in trade so I'm just actually grimly resigned to dealing with them as obstacles at this point) shocked at the Cogressman's and spokeswoman's filthy language and deliberately false statements. They are disgusting and absolutely inappropriate for government.
posted by saysthis at 12:00 PM on January 6, 2019 [27 favorites]

Every life — that’s what sets America apart from every other country; we value life.

Except- yanno, the lives of black people gunned down by police.
Or... the lives of students gunned down by their deranged classmates.
Or... the lives of women constantly being killed by their partners.
or...
I'm so tired.
posted by Homo neanderthalensis at 12:03 PM on January 6, 2019 [42 favorites]

Kim Campbell (former PM of Canada) twitter> "He really IS a motherf**ker!
posted by porpoise at 12:04 PM on January 6, 2019 [17 favorites]

Latest news round-up at News You May Have Missed, with bonus list of judicial nominees to watch out for.
posted by joannemerriam at 12:18 PM on January 6, 2019 [4 favorites]

EDIT: on preview, now pelosi is milkshake duck "all lives matter" unfortunate. We whites really can't stand anyone counting but us, and any responsibility for the present.

This is a very good point. Even in a "White People of Metafilter Mea Culpa" comment, the "We whites" framing erases the many POC members, some of whom are in this very thread.
posted by ActingTheGoat at 12:27 PM on January 6, 2019 [6 favorites]

Let's just crack open the ol' Politico Playbook for today, and:

-- JARED THINKS HE’S RIDING HIGH: Jared Kushner, the president’s senior adviser, said he was bringing good outside business knowledge to the wall negotiations. He said the reason the wall price was going up was because of an increase in customer utilization for the border. Customer demand, he said, results in overruns.

What the fuck? Sometimes I think we forget that these are really, really not very smart people.
posted by zachlipton at 12:58 PM on January 6, 2019 [32 favorites]

I don't forget.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:17 PM on January 6, 2019 [12 favorites]

zachlipton: What the fuck? Sometimes I think we forget that these are really, really not very smart people.

We're currently in a trade war with China because Jared Kushner was tasked with learning more about China during the campaign, so he did an Amazon book search and the book Death By China caught his eye. The book's author became the campaign's first economic adviser.
posted by bluecore at 1:21 PM on January 6, 2019 [19 favorites]

“When you see Dick Durbin and others in the room, not a bunch of staffers, when you see this rhetoric that those who want to build a wall are racist stop, when you see the idea one dollar’s enough for the wall, when that stuff ends, the real negotiations begin,” he said.

It'll never stop because you are racist. Lindsey.
posted by mikelieman at 1:28 PM on January 6, 2019 [10 favorites]

“We’ll have offers on the table when we find somebody that’s not crazy to deal with,” Graham said

Alas, Lindsey, he is president.
posted by holgate at 1:49 PM on January 6, 2019 [20 favorites]

@CBSNews [video]: President Trump says he wants a steel border wall, and a reporter asks why Democrats would support that. Trump: "They don't like concrete, so we'll give them steel. Steel is fine. Steel is actually more expensive than concrete, but it will look beautiful"

They're really going all in on the the "Democrats are objecting to the choice of materials" bit, aren't they?
posted by zachlipton at 1:50 PM on January 6, 2019 [10 favorites]

This has been your hourly reminder of the absolute failure of ~~modernity.~~ corporate news media.

Guys, I know the basement's filling up with water and the roof's on fire, but I'm kind of concerned about the gas leak.

So much of this would be resolved quickly if we had a halfway honest portrayal of the state of affairs in DC. 1% ownership of the entirety of corporate media ensures we will not get out of this without something on the order of ... Giant Meteor.
posted by petebest at 2:13 PM on January 6, 2019 [10 favorites]

"They don't like concrete, so we'll give them steel. Steel is fine. Steel is actually more expensive than concrete, but it will look beautiful"

Does he actually believe this shit or is he aware that he's lying? Obviously he lies every chance he gets.. but I can't tell anymore. Between him thinking the majority of the country supports him and this sort of nonsense it's hard to tell if he's trying to deceive people because he knows he's flailing or because he actually is that delusional and out of touch with what's happening in this country.
posted by Liquidwolf at 2:14 PM on January 6, 2019 [5 favorites]

So, asking for a friend, what's the current scrap rate for large amounts of steel?

And any tips for speeding up the removal from a perfectly legitimate "building site"?
posted by Buntix at 2:29 PM on January 6, 2019 [1 favorite]

Remember those half dozen or so prototype wall sections that were built in SoCal? Didn't one of them get picked as the "winner"?
posted by perhapses at 2:30 PM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

Rep Adam Schiff thinks that Trump might actually be able to do the national emergency thing, so fuck
posted by angrycat at 2:42 PM on January 6, 2019 [3 favorites]

Trump was personally tweeting out blueprints for steel fences less than a month ago, so this offends me just on a continuity basis.
posted by gerryblog at 2:44 PM on January 6, 2019 [12 favorites]

Does he actually believe this shit or is he aware that he's lying? Obviously he lies every chance he gets.. but I can't tell anymore.

The lies are the point. Trump’s constant & audacious lying is “the whole point” intended to break down the institutional press & consolidate power. This is beyond pathology. It’s an aggressive move toward authoritarian rule.

Greg Sargent:

1) As Trump ends the year with a flood of lies about his wall, we need to recapture a core truth about this presidency. Trump isn't “twisting the truth” or “stubbornly refusing to admit error.” Trump is engaged in *disinformation.* This is a different thing entirely.

*THREAD*

2) The WaPo and NYT fact checkers have now posted their year-end pieces. They are notable.
Via @glennkesslerwp, Trump has now passed the 7,500 mark in falsehoods and distortions as president: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/12/21/president-trump-has-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/ 3) Meanwhile, @YLindaQiu points to a pattern in which Trump regularly converts his falsehoods into “alternative facts” through “sheer force of repetition.” This is the essence of the matter. 4) Why does Trump lie *all the time* about *everything,* even the most trivial, easily disprovable matters? The frequency and the audacity of Trump’s disinformation is the *whole point* of it -- to wear you down. More and more of the lies slip past, undetected and uncorrected. 5) Others have pointed this out to great effect. See @sarahkendzior or @jayrosen_nyu or @brianbeutler or @drvox. I tried to give this topic the ambitious treatment it deserves in my book, “An Uncivil War.” I don’t know if I succeeded, but I tried. 6) Once Trump’s lying is understood as concerted and deliberate disinformation, it becomes clear that the frequency and audacity of it is *the whole point.* Those are features of the lying. They are central to declaring the power to say what reality is: 7) The other crucial half of this is to destroy the credibility of the institutional press. Previous presidents have tangled with the media. But Trump’s ongoing casting of the press as the "enemy of the people" is in important respects something new: 8) When people dig up old Trump tweets contradicting current claims and say “LOL there’s always a tweet,” this misses the point. Trump is *openly and unapologetically* declaring that norms of consistency and standards of interplay with the institutional press *do not* bind him. 9) I don’t know how conscious this is for Trump. But his background conditioned him for it. His Reality TV past (reality is created via force of personality) fused with Steve Bannon’s love of totalitarian propaganda to create what we’re seeing now: 10) There’s a reason Bannon immediately recognized in Trump a kindred spirit.
Both are authoritarian populists and as such share devotion to the awesome possibilities of disinformation. @joshuagreen’s bio of Bannon tells this part of the story. 11) All these things led @jayrosen_nyu to declare early that the media is embroiled in a “public battle," the “fight of its life.” We've struggled for the right footing. But we’ve endured situations like this before. Historically, the media has adapted: 12) I believe the press is undergoing a generational institutional adjustment, and that Trump’s corruption of our politics w/disinformation is failing. My book tries to tell this story with history/scholarship in an effort to reckon w/it seriously. FIN

posted by T.D. Strange at 2:45 PM on January 6, 2019 [34 favorites]

Rep Adam Schiff thinks that Trump might actually be able to do the national emergency thing, so fuck

I dunno, that sounds like what everyone has been saying; the President has broad discretionary powers if he declares an Emergency but that declaring such an Emergency would be subject to immediate challenge in Court.
posted by Justinian at 2:45 PM on January 6, 2019 [5 favorites]

Rep Adam Schiff thinks that Trump might actually be able to do the national emergency thing, so fuck

It won't be easy for him to pull that off even if he tries.
posted by Liquidwolf at 2:46 PM on January 6, 2019 [1 favorite]

I think Schiff is daring Trump to do this stupid thng; no way the Supreme Court could endorse that move.

Meanwhile: Schiff to target potential perjury during Congress’ Russia probe Add in an ethics investigation of Nunes for obstruction of justice, and this could be very productive.
posted by msalt at 2:47 PM on January 6, 2019 [7 favorites]

That's Rep. Adam Smith not Adam Schiff, btw. Smith is the incoming chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
posted by birdheist at 2:48 PM on January 6, 2019 [10 favorites]

Doing it with the military in one way simplifies security to prevent a Keystone XL protest-type thing. It also will look much uglier when they suppress a Keystone XL protest-type thing.
posted by ctmf at 2:48 PM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

Does he actually believe this shit or is he aware that he's lying?

Well, he built his ugly tower out of concrete as a deal with the Mob. And he's obsessed with dumb superficial details in lieu of serious things. But otherwise he's full of shit.
posted by holgate at 2:51 PM on January 6, 2019 [4 favorites]

The lies are the point. Trump’s constant & audacious lying is “the whole point” intended to break down the institutional press & consolidate power. This is beyond pathology. It’s an aggressive move toward authoritarian rule.

I don't think it's that complicated or planned. I think he's just a delusional liar who knows his base isn't sharp enough to know or care. I don't really buy the idea there's any sinister endgame to it.
posted by Liquidwolf at 2:52 PM on January 6, 2019 [7 favorites]

There’s a question of whether he’s doing it with intention, but even if not, he’s using the language of authorarian oppression because he admires and learns from authortarian dictators, and aspires to be one. Whether he’s doing it according to a plan or through depraved instinct amassed over a lifetime of admiring and emulating antidemocratic strongmen isn’t really worth debating.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:03 PM on January 6, 2019 [36 favorites]

I think he's just a delusional liar who knows his base isn't sharp enough to know or care. I don't really buy the idea there's any sinister endgame to it.

Meanwhile the psychos around him are using the space this creates to achieve actual policy changes. Trump serves as an umbrella for them, wittingly or no.
posted by rhizome at 3:12 PM on January 6, 2019 [10 favorites]

The possibilities for authoritarianism latent in the American system that Trump has clumsily tried to take advantage of would be much more dangerous in the hands of a more intelligent and subtle operator.
posted by clawsoon at 3:16 PM on January 6, 2019 [5 favorites]

I'm seeing conflicting headlines and articles when I try to look up surplus stock in US made steel. US Steel's stocks are down 57% and companies are shifting production overseas per Industry Week but Nasdaq claims a bumper harvest. no links because its not worth it.
posted by infini at 3:16 PM on January 6, 2019

The possibilities for authoritarianism latent in the American system that Trump has clumsily tried to take advantage of would be much more dangerous in the hands of a more intelligent and subtle operator.

Uncle Vlad?
posted by infini at 3:17 PM on January 6, 2019 [3 favorites]

I mean, in living memory we have filmed evidence of the effects of puppet-authoritarians in both Africa and South America.
posted by rhizome at 3:22 PM on January 6, 2019 [4 favorites]

Trump says appointing acting Cabinet heads grants "more flexibility"

President Trump told reporters outside the White House on Sunday that he’s "in no hurry" to replace his acting Cabinet secretaries with formal replacements, saying, "I have acting, and my actings are doing really great. ... I sort of like acting. It gives me more flexibility, do you understand that?"

posted by scalefree at 3:33 PM on January 6, 2019 [8 favorites]

They don't like concrete, so we'll give them steel.

Nobody tell him about reinforced concrete.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 3:33 PM on January 6, 2019 [18 favorites]

Trump says appointing acting Cabinet heads grants "more flexibility"

Losing count of the Constitutional crises here. I mean, each of these things counts as an individual crisis, right? Do we bundle them into a class action crisis?
posted by scaryblackdeath at 3:47 PM on January 6, 2019 [38 favorites]

Liberal Redneck - The God Damn Wall
posted by mumimor at 3:48 PM on January 6, 2019 [7 favorites]

CBS 60 Minutes: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says Democrats "have compromised too much"

ANDERSON COOPER: You're willing to compromise?

ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ: Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.

It's just about what we choose to compromise.

My personal opinion, and I know that my district and my community feels this way as well, is that we as a party have compromised too much, and we've lost too much of who we're supposed to be and who we are.[…] I think we've compromised things that we shouldn't have compromised, whether it's judgeships with Mitch McConnell, whether it's compromising on climate change. I think we've — there are some things that we've compromised a little bit too much on. But am I open to compromise on certain ways to get things done? Absolutely.

Let's see how the rightwing noise machine loses their minds over what they'll call AOC's unwillingness to compromise.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:10 PM on January 6, 2019 [65 favorites]

The right wing noise machine will just say AOC will not compromise. It’s not about facts. What she actually says does not matter to the Right wing noise machine. What does matter is starting the years of tearing her down now, so in 10 years or whenever, regular people will say, “Gee, I dunno, she’s pretty unwilling to compromise, I’ve heard that a lot.”
posted by kerf at 4:28 PM on January 6, 2019 [19 favorites]

House Democrats officially unveil their first bill in the majority: a sweeping anti-corruption proposal
Democrats will take up voting rights, campaign finance reform, and a lobbying crackdown — all in their first bill of the year. (vox)
posted by bluesky43 at 4:29 PM on January 6, 2019 [19 favorites]

The right wing noise machine will not use actual facts.

If she does nothing else, AOC will provide a vital service by attracting all the hate from the haters so other progressives can get things done.
posted by oneswellfoop at 4:38 PM on January 6, 2019 [13 favorites]

It's pretty clear to me that pundits have decided that the way to beat Trump is to focus on being anti-corruption. It's not just Democrats, Nikki Haley appears to be setting up a run for president on a similar platform.
posted by xammerboy at 4:43 PM on January 6, 2019 [1 favorite]

What does matter is starting the years of tearing her down now, so in 10 years or whenever, regular people will say, “Gee, I dunno, she’s pretty unwilling to compromise, I’ve heard that a lot.”

This is exactly what I fear. She seems pretty smart and especially media savvy though so I will trust that she knows how to deal with it.
posted by maggiemaggie at 4:44 PM on January 6, 2019

Nobody knows how to deal with it. No matter how smart, charismatic, hard-working, media-savvy you are -- and so far, AOC is practically super-human in this regard -- there is almost no way to beat literally millions of (idiotic, rich) opponents single-handedly. We will have to have her (and all her compatriots') back when the goons inevitably find the chink that opens up the ever-ready doubts of the centrists. If she is brilliant at science, people, social media, etc, maybe she can't dance -- no, she's a great dancer; so maybe she can't sing, or her tongue sticks out a bit when she speaks, or she has a squeak when she gets excited, or, or, or -- there will be something, there always is. And the teeming middle will latch onto it after the right has dredged it up; "I knew there was something about her I didn't like," they will say. It happens to literally everyone. There is no defense, only counter-offense. So far she doesn't need it, and we can concentrate on rescuing (arguably) less savvy folks like Tlaib. But inevitably she will, and then we'll have to actually do something instead of just reveling in her fancy footwork.
posted by chortly at 5:21 PM on January 6, 2019 [16 favorites]

Let’s just elect 30 more AOCs so she doesn’t haven’t to shoulder all this bullshit alone for very long.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:27 PM on January 6, 2019 [107 favorites]

I definitely think that being concerned about how AOC will be viewed in 10 years is an excellent use of this thread.
posted by weed donkey at 5:42 PM on January 6, 2019 [27 favorites]

1) As Trump ends the year with a flood of lies about his wall, we need to recapture a core truth about this presidency. Trump isn't “twisting the truth” or “stubbornly refusing to admit error.” Trump is engaged in *disinformation.* This is a different thing entirely.

This is a worthwhile observation but I think it's worse. Trump is disinformation, deep down, at his core. He actually doesn't really have any idea what information looks like, and the most important reason is because he doesn't care. Any established truth as a potential enemy of the convenience of the moment, and to acknowledge some underlying reality is to be subordinate to it, and that's for losers, so his entire life, he has trained himself to be a person who is constantly using language in an entirely instrumental, manipulative ways.

There isn't a disinformation *campaign*. It's a habit that's so ingrained it's his character, it's who he is.

Nobody knows how to deal with it. No matter how smart, charismatic, hard-working, media-savvy you are -- and so far, AOC is practically super-human in this regard -- there is almost no way to beat literally millions of (idiotic, rich) opponents single-handedly.

There may not be a way of decisively rolling back the right wing noise machine (RWNM) among those who tune in because it sells them a vision of the world that makes their souls sing, such as they are.

But I've started just asking people to defend their negative opinions about AOC, and I haven't been shy about suggesting that it's possible their opinions are a result of a RWNM that desperately wants to characterize her before she has too positive an image for actually backing real for-the-people policy. And I do this as even a bit of centrist, willing to believe it's *possible* that someone will come up with a substantial criticism of her, but so far.... nope. Not a single point that holds up to scrutiny. Most can't even explain how they got their ideas of her.

I don't know if it'll make a dent but I do know that I wish I'd been calling out bullshit about HRC more often 10 years ago.
posted by wildblueyonder at 6:01 PM on January 6, 2019 [42 favorites]

WaPo, As shutdown drags on, Trump officials make new demands, seek novel ways to cope with its impacts. By impacts, we mean people getting evicted:

The Department of Housing and Urban Development sent letters to 1,500 landlords Friday as part of a last-minute effort to prevent the eviction of thousands of tenants. A lot of those tenants live in units covered by a HUD program that many agency officials didn’t realize had expired on Jan. 1 and that they are now unable to renew.

The letters instruct the landlords to use their reserve accounts so that no one is evicted, HUD spokesman Jereon Brown said. He said the budget and contract staff are “scouring for money” to figure out how to fund the contracts on an interim basis.

Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service officials are trying to determine whether they will be able to pay tax refunds next month, despite the fact that they said last year they would be prohibited from doing so in the event of a government shutdown.

And the National Park Service, under pressure because of deteriorating conditions at some of its most popular parks, authorized tapping entrance fees to pay for trash pickup and other operations that have halted as a result of the shutdown — a move some critics said may be illegal.

BuzzFeed, The Government Shutdown Is “Life And Death” For Low-Wage Subcontractors Who Likely Won’t Be Repaid For Lost Time

On Day 14 of the partial government shutdown, Donna Kelly, a 63-year-old federally subcontracted security officer for the Smithsonian, is wondering if her high blood pressure medication will last through the end of the month — let alone the entire shutdown.

When the government does reopen, Kelly and an estimated 1,500 workers — according to two unions that represent some of the janitors, security guards, cafeteria workers, and hospitality workers who staff federal facilities — likely won’t receive any back pay from the duration of the shutdown.

Government employees usually receive back pay once shutdowns have concluded, but workers who are paid by companies that have contracts with the government don’t receive pay for services that can’t be billed to the government while facilities are shut down.

posted by zachlipton at 6:13 PM on January 6, 2019 [21 favorites]

Park Service takes ‘extraordinary step’ of dipping into entrance fees to bolster operations at popular sites (WaPo):

Under an order signed Saturday by the Interior Department’s Acting Secretary David Bernhardt and obtained by The Washington Post, park managers will be permitted to bring on additional staff to clean restrooms, haul trash, patrol the parks and open areas that have been shut during the more than two-week budget impasse. In a statement Sunday, National Park Service Deputy Director P. Daniel Smith acknowledged that the administration’s practice of keeping parks open but understaffed has become unsustainable at some of its most beloved sites.
[...]
The move, which some critics said could be illegal, shows the extent to which the Trump administration’s decision to keep the national park system open to visitors across the country is straining its capacity and potentially exposing public lands to long-term damage. Under the Clinton and Obama administrations, the Park Service chose to block access to its sites rather than leave them open with a skeleton staff on board. Trump officials chose the opposite course, and as trash has begun to mount, and key habitat has been imperiled, the administration is struggling to manage the problems.

Congressional Democrats and some park advocates question whether the move is legal, since the fees that parks collect under the Federal Lands Recreation Enhancement Act are expressly designated to support visitor services instead of operations and basic maintenance. The new secretarial order authorizes parks that have “available balances” of these fee funds to spend them on operations that include trash collection and sanitation, road maintenance, campground operations, law enforcement and emergency operations, and entrance staff “as necessary to provide critical safety operations.”

Seven people have been reported dead in the parks since the shutdown. One of those deaths sounds like a freak accident, but the other six could have maybe been prevented by proper staffing in the park. Or just closing them and taking the bad press.
posted by peeedro at 6:16 PM on January 6, 2019 [12 favorites]

Seven people have been reported dead in the parks since the shutdown.

We’re getting up into MS-13 numbers here... someone should alert Fox News and we should maybe start thinking about building walls around all these rogue public parks.
posted by valkane at 6:32 PM on January 6, 2019 [12 favorites]

Let's check in on the Joe Biden 2020 pre-rollout:

In one of his calls over the holidays, Mr. Biden repeated a variation of a line he has used publicly: “If you can persuade me there is somebody better who can win, I’m happy not to do it,” he said, according to the Democrat he spoke to, who shared the conversation on condition of anonymity to discuss a private talk.

But then Mr. Biden said something he has not stated so bluntly in public: “But I don’t see the candidate who can clearly do what has to be done to win.”

...

Mr. Biden would portray himself as a progressive, embracing priorities like free public college tuition and expanding health care, advisers say. But he would also make the case that his 36 years in the Senate and eight years as vice president make him the best qualified to repair the damage they believe Mr. Trump has done at home and abroad.

“This is a guy who actually gets along with Mitch McConnell and a number of other Republicans,” said Mr. Carper, invoking the Senate majority leader with whom Mr. Biden worked closely to negotiate a handful of agreements in the Obama years.

Vote Joe. The 2020 candidate that can best work with Mitch McConnell.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:34 PM on January 6, 2019 [24 favorites]

Yes, Mitch has just been waiting for a friend to show up to play nice.
posted by armacy at 6:39 PM on January 6, 2019 [14 favorites]

Is Biden just making bipartisanism mouth noises to sound good to low-information voters? Because if he sincerely believes that McConnell will work with a Democratic President in good faith, he's been living under a damn rock for the entire of Obama's presidency.

As Obama's VP, Biden should know better than anyone that McTurtle will NOT play the bipartisan game, and will run roughshod over any Democratic leader who tries to be nice.

I really, really hope it's just mouth noises.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:57 PM on January 6, 2019 [17 favorites]

Because if he sincerely believes that McConnell will work with a Democratic President in good faith, he's been living under a damn rock for the entire of Obama's presidency.

Was he sincere about Anita Hill? Would it have been any better if he wasn't? He's definitely acted like he believes many stupid and awful things over the years, but the only one of them I'm sure he believes is "I want to become President."
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:08 PM on January 6, 2019 [16 favorites]

Biden is terrible. He's always been terrible. He didn't have to actually do anything for 8 years under Obama, and in that time the internet became the dominant mode of communication, and he transformed from a terrible person into Joe Biden The Other Half Of Obama Memes.

Let's get real about this. Joe Biden should not run for President. If his advisors aren't saying so, he should get new ones.

It's obvious that now, in the midst of #MeToo, is not the time to run for the Democratic nomination if you happened to run the Anita Hill hearing.Some backgrounders on that, based on a very cursory Google search: Anita Hill and her 1991 congressional defenders to Joe Biden: You were part of the problem. It's also pretty well known that he sponsored and voted for the 1994 crime bill. @jbouie has a good rundown of his record on criminal justice here. But did you know that Biden not only voted for, not only sponsored, but *partially wrote* the bill that gave us the crack/cocaine sentencing disparity? Well, he did. Wonkier related point: did you know that he also sponsored and helped to write the 1984 bill that greatly expanded civil forfeiture (otherwise known as: police taking your property even if you're never convicted of a crime, and using the proceeds to fund their departments.) Seriously: so long as the police think your property represents the proceed of a crime, they can just take it. (WHAT WOULD GROVER NORQUIST SAY?) That's Biden. If you think that it would be a great idea to nominate the single Democratic Senator who was arguably most responsible for mass incarceration that disproportionately affects African-Americans, militarized policing and the expansion of the carceral state, he's your guy. Why anyone thinks that would be a winning formula now, of all times, is a mystery. And then there's the 2005 bankruptcy bill. It had many, many bad features, but I want to highlight just one: this was the bill that made it impossible to discharge student loans made by for profit entities during bankruptcy. It was already impossible to discharge loans made by government and non-profits, absent great hardship, but this was the bill that said: if you take out a student loan from e.g. a bank, and you then declare bankruptcy, that student loan will not be wiped out. Does anyone think that now is a good time to run someone who helped make student loans a much worse problem than they were before? If so, get professional help. Plus, being a Senator from Delaware, he's always looked out for credit card companies and the like. If you think that now is a great time to run someone who has been cozy with big finance, again, seek professional help. He's vulnerable on sexual harassment, mass incarceration, and debt, especially student debt. And he helped write the bill that gave us the crack/cocaine disparity. That's a record designed to be problematic for women, people of color, millennials, and, really, most Dems. This particular moment might have been designed to be wrong for Joe Biden.

And yet, somehow, he seems to think that he alone can save us.

He should think harder.

The reason Biden would run on bipartisanship is because his record is more at home in the Republican party, and it's only an accident of geography that he was elected as a Democrat, and an accident of history and technology that his actual record was erased by the political equivalent of ICANHAZCHZBURGER memes.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:28 PM on January 6, 2019 [97 favorites]

How Trump's tweet storms to rally support for the government shutdown seem to be working (John W. Schoen, CNBC)

In his battle with Congress over border wall funding, President Donald Trump has leaned heavily on Twitter to rally support among his followers.

So far, the strategy seems to be working. That doesn't bode well for a quick resolution to the standoff.

Based on CNBC review of his wall-related tweets, the effort is paying off.

This seems specious to me, given how easily Twitter can be gamed by bots and 3rd parties, and recent history of Russian partcipation.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:41 PM on January 6, 2019 [9 favorites]

I wish I could favorite every sentence of that, T.D. Strange.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:42 PM on January 6, 2019 [11 favorites]

I also know someone who has worked directly with Joe Biden, while he was VP, who says he has a horrific, hair-trigger temper and is... not very smart.

He should not run for President.
posted by Superplin at 7:51 PM on January 6, 2019 [19 favorites]

I am not trying to be ageist here at ALL, but I would really like someone under the age of 70 to run for president. Only 15% of the population is over 65, yet how many of the Dem frontrunners are in that group? It's frustrating as all hell. Obama's comparative youth was one of the things that made him such an invigorating candidate. Also Joe deserves to retire.
posted by elsietheeel at 7:58 PM on January 6, 2019 [35 favorites]

Successful impeachment is such a long shot in the current environment, and such a grave expenditure of political energy. My money’s on Dems instead running out the clock, making Trump look increasingly terrible in the intervening time

The nice part is Trump himself will help with that second part.
posted by Gelatin at 7:59 PM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

Fact-checking Trump’s Freewheeling Cabinet Session

Is it just me or is that a really bad descriptor? "Freewheeling" always seemed to have positive connotations; it seems a better choice would be "unhinged" or "incoherent".
posted by axiom at 8:05 PM on January 6, 2019 [18 favorites]

I suggest nobody over 70 should be running for a first term. That said, I'm gonna vote for the Democratic candidate even if its a 127 year old slime mold, or Joe Biden, or Bernie Sanders. Still better than Donald Trump.
posted by Justinian at 8:13 PM on January 6, 2019 [43 favorites]

If Biden wins, I'd still vote for him in the general. But this is the primary, he must answer for his real record, not run on Obama's and the internet's false impression of him. That record is the worst of any major contender not named Cuomo. Biden is the absolute bottom tier of acceptable Democratic candidates to me, and only after he actually wins the nomination and there's no other choice than him or Trump.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:23 PM on January 6, 2019 [29 favorites]

I too wish to see someone from my gernation GenX or younger. But I really don’t want Joe. He will divide the party and let the trumpinistas have another victory. The Democratic Party would be nonexistent without the millions of hours of emotional and physical donated by women. Especially women of color. Joe is a slap in the face to the engines of our successes. Joe needs to sit the fuck down.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:34 PM on January 6, 2019 [22 favorites]

That record is the worst of any major contender not named Cuomo.

Poor Bloomberg, already forgotten and/or relegated to second tier status!
posted by Justinian at 8:34 PM on January 6, 2019 [4 favorites]

Well, Sanders was literally not a member of the Democratic Party. You could argue that's not really substantive (I'd agree), but it was a non-disputable fact, unlike saying Biden would be more at home in the GOP.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:39 PM on January 6, 2019 [16 favorites]

Being a centrist does not make one secretly a Republican

No, but it makes one non-secretly weaker than every single Republican. Somebody who prioritizes pleasing Mitch McConnell over the will of their voters might not be a Republican but they're certainly worse than useless.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:40 PM on January 6, 2019 [16 favorites]

Biden > Trump
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:47 PM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

The question is not whether Biden is worse than Trump. It's whether you believe that enough disillusioned progressives are going to hold their noses and vote for Biden, and whether you are willing to stake the future of the world on that belief.
posted by Behemoth at 8:51 PM on January 6, 2019 [13 favorites]

It seems possible that by the time the primaries actually roll around this millionth Biden derail will be completely irrelevant, when all that remains of the government is a huddling mass of cannibalistic bow ties on the swollen banks of Rock Creek. For that, at least, I am thankful, because good grief I thought we were trying not to pre-litigate the primaries.
posted by aspersioncast at 8:57 PM on January 6, 2019 [2 favorites]

Hey, folks, let's really work to keep the armwrestling about primary stuff to a bare minimum. Concrete news about people running, okay. Agita and pro/con campaigning about the idea of someone running, not so much. Anybody too new to have lived through 2016 on MeFi has one get-out-of-jail free card for not knowing what a goddam pain it was, and they've just used it. The rest of you definitely already know how it was, and we need it to not be that way again.
posted by cortex (staff) at 8:58 PM on January 6, 2019 [46 favorites]

I really don't know how to not-prelitigate when we're in between the period between when the shadow candidates that everyone knows are running haven't declared yet and when they inevitable will. All these people are running now, whether we're ready to start talking about them running or not. I understand the logistical concerns for thread management purposes, but this is a distinction without meaning.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:07 PM on January 6, 2019 [9 favorites]

@ChrisVanHollen
Senate Democrats should block consideration of any bills unrelated to opening the government until Sen. Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans allow a vote on the bipartisan bills the House passed to open the government. Mitch, don’t delay. Let’s vote!

@SenatorCardin
Agreed. This isn’t business as usual. This is a crisis, a fundamental failure to govern, and Americans are suffering for it.

The Senate should not take up any bills unrelated to reopening the government until @SenateMajLdr lets us vote on exactly that. #Shutdown
posted by Chrysostom at 9:10 PM on January 6, 2019 [47 favorites]

I really don't know how to not-prelitigate when we're in between the period between when the shadow candidates that everyone knows are running haven't declared yet and when they inevitable will.

Literally the way to not do it is to refrain from doing it. The idea that we do not need to document and argue about each scattered tea leaf is not a remarkable one, even if a lot of folks are—in good faith and as a matter of personal preference—habitually inclined to do so. I'm not even saying don't do it; people can be as deep in the weeds on the primaries as they like on their own time and in their own space. I'm just saying don't do it here. I need folks to make an effort on this and be mindful.
posted by cortex at 9:13 PM on January 6, 2019 [42 favorites]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable leaving the primary stuff completely off to the side for now if I knew there was going to be a point when we can talk about it. As it stands it feels like it's going to be treated as taboo until Super Tuesday. The discussion has started, if it ever stopped. It's bizarre that we can't talk directly about this stuff yet while everyone is already forming opinions and making choices.

That's putting aside the constant refrain that somehow the existence of Trump means that every Democrat is untouchable because apparently none of us are capable of holding two different topics in our head at once.
posted by AnhydrousLove at 9:21 PM on January 6, 2019 [6 favorites]

I feel like there's a difference between on the one hand, a comment about "Biden announces Iowa staff hires" and then an ensuing discussion of what that might mean or "Biden in 3rd in New Hampshire poll" and then a discussion of how that compares to expectations and chances, versus someone saying, "man, I sure don't like Joe Biden." That doesn't seem to me to be super productive, and it's just treading water. Particularly when it is people expressing the same opinions that they have previously stated numerous times.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:30 PM on January 6, 2019 [37 favorites]

I realize I'm sort of jumping to a MetaTalk post that hasn't happened yet, so: for shorthand, Chrysostom basically has the idea. If it helps avoid going farther into a general metadiscussion here, we can rewind this to "hey, folks, drop it with the Biden-et-al stuff in here right now" and leave it at that as far as specific guidance; the primaries stuff is really really on Team Mod's minds and is something I'll address in more detail in an actual MetaTalk post soon as part of a check-in about politics thread stuff in general.
posted by cortex at 9:34 PM on January 6, 2019 [11 favorites]

Metafilter: Chrysostom basically has the idea
posted by Chrysostom at 9:36 PM on January 6, 2019 [124 favorites]

Chris McKinney @ceemck
Food stamps denied in Indiana store as part of government shutdown

This is obscene.
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:17 AM on January 7, 2019 [33 favorites]

Record Numbers of Americans Want to Leave the U.S. (gallup)

After years of remaining flat, the number of Americans -- particularly young women -- who desire to leave the U.S. permanently is on the rise. This increase is concerning, but none of this suggests that the U.S. is going to suddenly see a mass migration in which it could lose as many as 40% of its young women.

However, the "Trump effect" on Americans' desire to migrate is a new manifestation of the increasing political polarization in the U.S. Before Trump took office, Americans' approval or disapproval of the president was not a push factor in their desire to migrate.

The top destination is Canada, so perhaps they should build a wall and get the USA to pay for it.

These are perhaps idle daydreams that are never acted on, though I hope some people actually gave it some research, enough to realise that legal migration isn't as simple as going to another country and staying. It could take years and still never happen. And that's the legal way. Perhaps if people knew more about the process they wouldn't fall for the myths and scaremongering. Maybe even have some respect for those poor people that walked 1000 miles.
posted by adept256 at 12:30 AM on January 7, 2019 [14 favorites]

Why can they keep lying about this and not be called out?
US Rep Brendan Boyle:

The Trump White House claims 4,000 suspected terrorists have been caught crossing our southern border. Here is the exact number, according to official government records...
It’s not 4,000.
It’s not 400.
It’s not 40.
It’s not even 4.
It’s 0.

Trump is lying. Period.

posted by PontifexPrimus at 1:38 AM on January 7, 2019 [65 favorites]

Rashida Tlaib is being criticised on Jewish Twitter for the antisemitic tone of this Tweet.

She's responding to Bernie Sanders, who is responding to The Intercept, which is pushing an article by Glenn Greenwald entitled U.S. Senate’s First Bill, in Midst of Shutdown, Is a Bipartisan Defense of the Israeli Government From Boycotts.

If you read the article (I'm not sure Tlaib or Sanders did) it claims that

according to multiple sources involved in the legislative process, S.1 will be a compendium containing a handful of foreign-policy related measures, a main one of which is a provision, with Florida’s GOP Sen. Marco Rubio as a lead sponsor, to defend the Israeli government.

That's a significantly weaker claim which, even if it were true, would not justify the outrage-filter headline that has attracted so many antisemitic comments already.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:25 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Note that it's one of a series of well-sourced articles dealing with anti-BDS laws, and that in the very next paragraph, the Intercept article says this is a continuation of an attempt to federalize state laws that have already been found to be wildly unconstitutional restrictions on free speech by federal courts. The subject of the laws is itself a whole 'nother FPP's worth of information, but Jewish commentators, even on the right, have been characterizing these bills the same way. Here's Batya Ungar-Sargon, a conservative and self-described fervent Zionist, writing for the Forward (emphasis mine):

The problem is that American Jews aren’t only Jews. We are also Americans. And it is through America that we have chosen to seek our self-determination; granted equal rights in America, six million Jews have opted out of Jewish nationalism.
[...]
Worse, in allowing the fight in the U.S. against BDS to escalate to bizarre oaths of loyalty, American Jews have shown themselves willing to deprive other American citizens of the civil rights protections that make this country so great, rights like freedom of expression which are surely not incidental to our choice to be American, rather than Israeli, citizens.

And here's another article from the Forward, this time by Lara Friedman (again, emphasis mine):

But too many are still unwilling to talk about the key related factor causing the estrangement of Democrats, and American progressives in general, from Israel: the gradual redefinition of “pro-Israel” to mean support for extremist, anti-democratic policies not just in Israel, but in the United States as well.

This trend, which pre-dates President Trump, sees the growing use of “pro-Israel” advocacy as a weapon to undermine fundamental American values and rights protected in our own Constitution, and bafflingly, sees such efforts supported and defended by leaders who otherwise claim the mantle of champions of progressive values.

The clearest example of this trend is ongoing and energetic efforts to quash free speech in America, in the name of defending Israel. These efforts have come in the form of bipartisan legislation at the federal and state level, designed to curb and even criminalize criticism and activism targeting Israel and its policies, or to define such speech as “anti-Semitism.”

And no less an organization than the Anti-Defamation League--or at least under the leadership of Abe Foxman--was worried that the laws themselves promoted the dual-loyalty myth:

The two internal ADL documents obtained by the Forward were drafted by staff members in the summer of 2016, at a time when ADL regional offices were fielding requests from other Jewish groups to work together on passing state-level anti-BDS laws. ADL was also under criticism from right-wing Jewish groups, particularly the Zionist Organization of America, for opposing some of the anti-BDS bills.

The documents attack the anti-BDS laws as unconstitutional, bad policy, and generally bad for the Jews. The first document, titled “ADL’S POSITION ON ANTI-BDS LEGISLATION,” says that the anti-BDS laws are bad for American Jews, diverting “community resources to an ineffective, unworkable, and unconstitutional endeavor instead of investing in more effective multi-layered strategies.” It says that bills raise the profile of the BDS movement while giving “the appearance that the Jewish community exercises undue influence in government.”

It seems clear that Tlaib and Sanders read the articles pretty thoroughly, and the unfortunately common implication that leftist Jewish Americans like Bernie Sanders just don't know what is good for themselves is especially worrying here.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:13 AM on January 7, 2019 [23 favorites]

leftist Jewish Americans like Bernie Sanders

Now, I'm a leftist Jewish American, but young enough to have read Herzl, and not have a knee-jerk reaction of "Zionism!". Frankly, his idea that by all the Jews leaving Europe would end anti-Semitism, and that it would be possible to find a place where they could peacefully settle ( i.e.: not claimed by anyone else important ) is naive colonialism, and through the lens of history, not a very good idea at all.

So, I get why someone in Bernie's generation views Zionism as an unqualified plus. He's wrong, and doesn't represent my views. Since I'm not in Vermont, it's not an issue with my representation.

Fucking Schumer though, he is my Senator.
posted by mikelieman at 5:30 AM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Sanders opposes the anti-BDS legislation, mikelieman
posted by zombieflanders at 5:35 AM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

There is a possible light at the end of the tunnel. Or at least an idea of when the tunnel might end.

Federal grand jury working in Mueller probe is extended

The grand jury, empaneled July 5, 2017, had been set to end Saturday after an 18-month term. Chief U.S. District Judge Beryl A. Howell of D.C., who oversees grand jury activities, said she approved the extension.

Howell declined to comment on how much longer the grand jury could sit. Under federal rules of criminal procedure, a grand jury may serve more than 18 months only if a judge finds an extension is in the public interest, and then generally for no more than six additional months

Imagine being on that jury and dealing with this stuff for two years.
posted by srboisvert at 5:35 AM on January 7, 2019 [9 favorites]

Sanders opposes the anti-BDS legislation, mikelieman

My take-away was that he was more opposed to the timing, while we're in a "Shutdown", rather than the idea of prior-restraint, but of course I'd be happier if he opposes it.
posted by mikelieman at 5:42 AM on January 7, 2019

I'd also like to point out that accusations that Sanders and Tlaib didn't read the articles seem pretty hypocritical when one of the articles notes this inhumane horror show:

The bill’s language is so sweeping that some victims of Hurricane Harvey, which devastated Southwest Texas in late 2017, were told that they could only receive state disaster relief if they first signed a pledge never to boycott Israel. That demand was deeply confusing to those hurricane victims in desperate need of help but who could not understand what their views of Israel and Palestine had to do with their ability to receive assistance from their state government.

posted by zombieflanders at 5:46 AM on January 7, 2019 [47 favorites]

Chris McKinney @ceemck
Food stamps denied in Indiana store as part of government shutdown

This is obscene.

Thankfully it's not true.

"Recent news reports may be leading some to believe the federal government shutdown is preventing Indiana SNAP recipients from accessing their benefits. This is not accurate. So far none of our programs or funding have been impacted. The news reports are the result of a technical issue isolated to one retailer. This retailer has been told it may not be able to correct the issue with its account until after the government shutdown is over. This is not impacting any other retailers in Indiana."

SNAP is administered at the state level from funds recieved by the federal government in advance. Individual payments do not come directly from the feds and states generally have a cushion to allow them to keep SNAP running for a period of time even during a federal government shutdown.
posted by elsietheeel at 6:06 AM on January 7, 2019 [11 favorites]

Given the title of this FPP: This American Life has just republished a recent episode dedicated entirely to wall stories - TAL ep. 641 (March 16, 2018) The Walls. Well worth a listen.
posted by progosk at 6:06 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Chris McKinney @ceemck
Food stamps denied in Indiana store as part of government shutdown

This is obscene.

Thankfully it's not true.

"This retailer has been told it may not be able to correct the issue with its account until after the government shutdown is over."

I'm sorry, but how does this make it not true? The inability to "correct the issue" is being specifically tied to the shutdown. Just because it wasn't intentionally because of the shutdown doesn't mean that it's not "part" of it. No one specifically shut down the trash cans in Yosemite, but not paying people to empty them means that trash is piling up as part of the government shutdown.
posted by Etrigan at 6:31 AM on January 7, 2019 [27 favorites]

For SNAP recievers especially those with disabilities just going to another store in the area isn't simple nor easy. Also, people do manage their snap benefits to the cent, and changing stores can cause a huge amount of mental work.

In addition, and not as important, the retailer didn't get those funds and some retailers do get significant income from SNAP.

Some people may be using assistance (like home based community services, a medicaid benefit) to get grociery shopping done, and because of the extra time they lose out on other services as they are only allowed so much time a month.

The impact of even one store not having SNAP can be huge.
posted by AlexiaSky at 6:40 AM on January 7, 2019 [43 favorites]

scaryblackdeath: Trump says appointing acting Cabinet heads grants "more flexibility" Losing count of the Constitutional crises here. I mean, each of these things counts as an individual crisis, right? Do we bundle them into a class action crisis?

A class-action crisis like this is best treated with a single impeachment (maybe a double impeachment, to clear out Pence, if and when his crimes are made public by Mueller's investigations plural).

zachlipton: A lot of those tenants live in units covered by a HUD program that many agency officials didn’t realize had expired on Jan. 1 and that they are now unable to renew.

The very best people. (I wonder how many former HUD officials who left when Ben Carson came in were marking days off the calendar with discomfort or growing concern of how many people could be booted from their homes if the new agency officials didn't keep track of the bureaucratic procedures that come with the end of the calendar year.)

adept256: After years of remaining flat, the number of Americans -- particularly young women -- who desire to leave the U.S. permanently is on the rise. This increase is concerning, but none of this suggests that the U.S. is going to suddenly see a mass migration in which it could lose as many as 40% of its young women.

I have relatives in this position now. They sold their home and are renting, so they'll be able to more easily move overseas. I wish them luck, but I'm sad that their communities will lose them.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:13 AM on January 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

CBS Names Legendary Producer Susan Zirinsky As Head Of News (NPR, January 7, 2019)

The legendary CBS News producer Susan Zirinsky will replace David Rhodes as the president of CBS News in March, the network announced Sunday evening.

Rhodes' decision to step down follows a tenure of great change and great turmoil, marked by shifts in personnel and formats, along with bumpy ratings, and searing scandal.

"The world we cover is changing, how we cover it is changing, and it's the right time for me to make a change too," Rhodes wrote in a statement.

Zirinsky, most recently the senior executive producer of the true crime-driven newsmagazine 48 Hours, will be the first woman to head CBS News. She has held significant roles at almost every element throughout the news division. She was a producer of CBS Evening News and has led the network's coverage of the White House.

According to the network, Zirinsky has led several special reports, including coverage of the Tiananmen Square uprising in 1989. CBS was the only major television network to have a news crew broadcasting live from the Chinese crackdown on the anti-government protests.

Zirinsky is also an admired documentary producer for CBS and its corporate cable sibling, Showtime.

I wonder how Zirinsky's leadership will (or won't) change the tenor of coverage of current politics, and specifically women in politics. Given The Media's Sexist Coverage of Hillary Clinton (U.S. News piece titled "The Sexist Press: A lot of the media coverage of Hillary Clinton reeks of sexism." By John Stoehr Contributing Editor for Opinion, Sept. 6, 2016), I know it might be somewhat reductive to assume a woman finally leading a major news organization will shift the tone, topics or presentations with regard to gender biases, I'm also hopeful that she will have that impact.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:26 AM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

If you are a woman with mobility (and despite many people’s best efforts, there are now many, many women with skills and mobility), other countries can look very attractive. Hell, if I want my daughter to have the best chance at life, is the US any good for her?
posted by amanda at 7:32 AM on January 7, 2019 [12 favorites]

Readying his trip to the Mideast, Pompeo is echoing Bolton's recent statements about Syria, CNBC reports: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: Us Withdrawal From Syria Doesn't Change Mission To Destroy Isis And Stop Iran's Influence In the Mideast

• The planned U.S. withdrawal of troops from Syria does not change the mission of destroying ISIS and stopping Iran, says Pompeo.
• Pompeo tells CNBC that the Syria move is a "change of tactics" but not the U.S. commitment in the region.

MEGATHREAD NOTE: A new draft for the next USPolitics FPP is ready on the MeFi wiki for people to contribute/collaborate.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:58 AM on January 7, 2019 [9 favorites]

@aclu BREAKING: SCOTUS has declined to hear the Ferguson school board challenge to our voting rights victory.

The new electoral system in place will give all residents’ votes equal weight.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:00 AM on January 7, 2019 [52 favorites]

Jay Rosen: "Not only is the search for campaign coverage alternatives nowhere on the visible horizon in American journalism, but a changed dynamic in Washington is threatening to make the situation worse."

For Rosen, the return of Democrats to some power (even as Republicans remain the protagonists) gives the press the chance to revert to full-on bothsidesism and horserace coverage. (As Soledad O'Brien noted, it's partly because cablenews is run on the cheap and exists symbiotically with access print journalism.) The question is how to push back on that coverage and demand an alternative, and the most effective way is to support journalism that rejects the "College Gameday" model.
posted by holgate at 8:03 AM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

140 things WikiLeaks says reporters can’t say about Assange
posted by 1970s Antihero at 8:04 AM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

I'd like the House to introduce one article of impeachment each month. Maybe on the 15th, then we can hashtag it #idesofimpeachment. Have hearings, drag regime officials before committees, dominate the news cycle and show the country just how many aspects of omnigate there are.

It's reverse gish-galloping -- putting the spotlight on a specific constitutional crisis, one at a time. Because right now there's a firehose of failure that even the political obsessives (not that we know anyone like that) have a hard time wrapping our heads around. This will help low-information voters and potential/alienated/disenfranchised voters to start to understand the gravity of the situation.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:05 AM on January 7, 2019 [14 favorites]

The top destination is Canada, so perhaps they should build a wall and get the USA to pay for it.

This is embarrassing. We were hoping you might not notice.

Concerned, But Not Wanting To Offend, Canada Quietly Plants Privacy Hedge Along Entire U.S. Border.

Canadian GoFundMe Raises $6B In Two Hours To Pay For Privacy Hedge Along Entire US Border
posted by bonehead at 8:11 AM on January 7, 2019 [22 favorites]

I think that's the Democratic equivalent of "trying to dismantle the ACA" and while the GOP was busy doing that, it was accomplishing exactly nothing else, allowing the country to drift down shit creek unimpeded.

I think articles of impeachment are important, but in that sense we should not engage in "boy who cried wolf" tactics that make the country think "Oh, this again, tired and never gonna happen" about impeachment, but also that there is a TON of work that really needs to be done, and we need to devote the bulk of our resources to doing those things.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:12 AM on January 7, 2019 [10 favorites]

Maybe we could trade the Americans who want to move up here for all the people who voted for Doug Ford.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:14 AM on January 7, 2019 [10 favorites]

Plus, it's pointless to introduce articles of impeachment as long as there's a GOP majority in the Senate. Full stop. Let's not waste our time.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:15 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Also in SCOTUS action, the court declined to hear an appeal by ExxonMobil of a Massachusetts court ruling that it has to turn over documents that might prove the company sat on its knowledge of climate change and actively worked to discredit climate-change science (more documents on the case from Mass. AG Maura Healey, who brought the suit).
posted by adamg at 8:16 AM on January 7, 2019 [37 favorites]

Absolutely we should also be putting forward positive legislation (as has already happened with the anti-corruption laws introduced on day 1 of the new Congress). But let's not kid ourselves that any of that will get to a Senate vote either, let alone be passed into law.

Democrats have to both demonstrate the utter moral, legal and economic bankruptcy of the regime and also show a positive program - "here's what *we* will do when you put us in power". Walk and chew gum.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:20 AM on January 7, 2019 [15 favorites]

Democrats have to both demonstrate the utter moral, legal and economic bankruptcy of the regime and also show a positive program - "here's what *we* will do when you put us in power". Walk and chew gum.

That didn't work when the GOP introduced a bill to overturn Obamacare umpteen gazillion times. All it did was drive up positive opinions of Obamacare. It's a waste of time and effort that would be better spent building a solid case for impeachment, and working to reobtain the majority so that we can actually successfully prosecute. There's no reason to give the nation impeachment fatigue and to make GOP claims of "presidential harassment" look credible.

There's a big difference between legislation that is clearly written to benefit the population, and legislation that is clearly written to target individuals. Even if it's perfectly justified and appropriate, the reality of the situation is that Democrats don't have control of the media cycle or the narrative of what our motivations are, and Republicans do. They'll just say whatever the hell they want about it and then use it as further justification to suppress the vote and restrict power to Democrats.

It would be far better to take a leaf out of Mueller's book, do the work behind the scenes and then drop a bomb when it's a done deal. He isn't effective because he's visible, he's effective precisely because he isn't visible.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:32 AM on January 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

140 things WikiLeaks says reporters can’t say about Assange

Yes, including the cat.

It is false and defamatory to suggest that Julian Assange has ever neglected an animal or has ever been asked by a state to take "better care" of an animal

Also:

It is false and defamatory to suggest that Julian Assange is "far right".
It is false and defamatory to suggest that Julian Assange is a racist.
It is false and defamatory to suggest that Julian Assange is a paedophile.
It is false and defamatory to suggest that Julian Assange is a rapist.
It is false and defamatory to suggest that Julian Assange is a murderer.

Huh, I guess Assange is a murderer.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:32 AM on January 7, 2019 [37 favorites]

"Technically the request came from the embassy's administrative staff and not the state of Ecuador."
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:34 AM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Democrats have to... demonstrate the utter moral, legal and economic bankruptcy of the regime...

I agree. Here's something I don't understand. Newt Gingrich made himself famous and helped win a huge Republican victory by reading anti-Democratic Party speeches from the empty House floor every night. Why don't any Democrats do something like that?

Did they change the rules since then? Is the impact of reading speeches for a C-SPAN audience lost in the new world of social media? It seems like it would actually be more effective now because the speeches would reach a wider audience.
posted by diogenes at 8:35 AM on January 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

Matthew Vaughn talks to current affairs about why he decided to run (and win!) as a huge lefty in the Maryland house of delegates
posted by The Whelk at 8:39 AM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

Plus, it's pointless to introduce articles of impeachment as long as there's a GOP majority in the Senate. Full stop. Let's not waste our time.
So . . doing the right thing requires permission, and immediate success guaranteed now? That McConnell sure is some hypnotist I guess.
posted by Harry Caul at 8:39 AM on January 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

As opposed to ineffective posturing that accomplishes exactly nothing whatsoever? Are you familiar with how impeachment works, or are you new to all this?
posted by Autumnheart at 8:42 AM on January 7, 2019

So . . doing the right thing requires permission, and immediate success guaranteed now? That McConnell sure is some hypnotist I guess.

No, no, we just have to wait for Democrats to take back the senate: then we can start compromising with Republicans to maybe do half an impeachment.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:42 AM on January 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

Really, it's only pointless to introduce legislation if Mitch McConnell is opposed to it and remains Senate Majority Leader.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:43 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Considering we actually do, in fact, have to take back the Senate in order to impeach, then yes. A Republican majority Senate is never going to impeach Trump. That's the reality.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:44 AM on January 7, 2019

The goal is to get Trump out of office. If impeachment is impossible then you look at how to best support a Democratic campaign in 2020. One possible way to do that is to make the case that Trump is corrupt and incompetent via impeachment proceedings. The Clinton impeachment failed to remove the president outright, but it clearly did not cost the GOP the White House in the subsequent election.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:45 AM on January 7, 2019 [11 favorites]

I agree. Here's something I don't understand. Newt Gingrich made himself famous and helped win a huge Republican victory by reading anti-Democratic Party speeches from the empty House floor every night. Why don't any Democrats do something like that?

I believe at the time C-SPAN wasn't allowed to show the empty House floor, making everything look like it was being read to the entire body.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:45 AM on January 7, 2019

Plus, it's pointless to introduce articles of impeachment as long as there's a GOP majority in the Senate. Full stop. Let's not waste our time.

It's not pointless. There are at least three very good reasons to introduce articles of impeachment even if the Senate won't convict.

First, it's the way the system is supposed to work. We ought to be trying, at least, to uphold institutional norms and get the government to function. Impeachment against a criminal President is how the government is supposed to function. So we should do it on principle.

Second, it very well might change some minds. Lots of low-information, on-the-fence voters used the Benghazi noise and the emails noise to justify voting against Clinton or not voting at all. Because she was "corrupt" or something. It was nonsense, but it was nonsense built up by investigation after investigation and the thought that where there's smoke, there must be fire. Unless you think that all of the low-information, on-the-fence voters are really Republicans that cannot be moved and that don't care at all about corruption in government, there is good political reason to bring impeachment articles. Since it is virtually certain that a clear case for impeachment can be made on the merits for any of a dozen different reasons, articles should be brought. And if Republicans in the Senate can't be bothered to do their jobs and convict, that can be hung around their necks forever.

Third, it matters to many of the voters in the Democratic base, like me. I want to see impeachment articles brought. I want to see separate articles for each impeachable offense. I think there's a political calculation here: The target audience is the American people, and they need to absolutely understand in simple, easy to articulate language what Trump has done that deserves impeachment. Separating the articles makes it easier to make each case to the people. But even if you don't agree with my political calculus, Democratic representatives should care about what the Democratic base wants them to do. I donate money. I knock doors. I drive people to the polls. I want impeachment articles brought. Now, it might be that most people in the base don't. Fine. But that's not been my experience. And if I'm right, then the bulk of the people who make campaigns work want their representatives to do their jobs and impeach.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 8:46 AM on January 7, 2019 [41 favorites]

Yeah, it's pretty easy to win an election when the Supreme Court just throws out Democratic votes and installs the Republican. I feel fairly confident that we're not going to have that kind of advantage.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:47 AM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Regarding whether or not impeachment is timed correctly, let JUSTICE BE DONE, though the Heavens fall.

Do what's morally right, regardless of political expedience. If there's an impeachable offence. Impeach. And then deal with what the Senate does instead of being stymied considering the n-th dimension, and getting nothing done.
posted by mikelieman at 8:47 AM on January 7, 2019 [21 favorites]

I mean CALL ME CRAZY but it seems to me like there's a health care system, a government shutdown, a crumbling environment, and a bunch of detained immigrants on the border that we could probably focus on.

We can address those things AND introduce articles of impeachment. And in any event, it's not like Democratic legislation has any better chance passing the Senate. So by your own logic, what's the point of trying to pass laws addressing healthcare, the shutdown, the environment, immigration, and all of the other pressing things that Republicans will oppose? I take it that the point is to do the right thing, to show the people what the Democratic Party stands for in order to move public opinion, and to satisfy the base. Same reasoning in both cases.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 8:51 AM on January 7, 2019 [11 favorites]

We can't impeach. We do not have a majority in the Senate. Which does the impeaching, or not. We can't impeach any more than we could have obstructed Kavanaugh's appointment. Let's work with the assets we actually have, not talk about shit that's never going to happen because we don't have the votes.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:51 AM on January 7, 2019

Mitch McConnell, by refusing to allow ~~the Garland nomination~~ articles of impeachment to be voted on by the full Senate, blocks discovery of how unified Senate Republicans are, let alone any meaningful debate.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:52 AM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

So by your own logic, what's the point of trying to pass laws addressing healthcare, the shutdown, the environment, immigration, and all of the other pressing things that Republicans will oppose?

Because the Republicans would actually benefit politically if they are seen to actually accomplish things for their constituents. Otherwise, by your logic, why do anything? Why not just sit down and let the GOP burn it all down?

This idea that we have to prioritize articles of impeachment over everything else is utter nonsense. It's fantasyland. This isn't West Wing.
posted by Autumnheart at 8:54 AM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

The GOP Is Reviving One of Its Favorite Scams -

Get ready to see it on your TV. The GOP is about to kick back into Two Santa Clauses mode and restart the scam they’ve been running since Reagan.

At its core, the strategy is simple and elegant: When Republicans are in power, run up as much debt as possible, mostly by borrowing and giving that cash to the Republican donor class through tax cuts and corporate subsidies; when Democrats have political power, Republicans suddenly become hysterical about the debt and demand that Dems keep taxes low while cutting social spending.
posted by growabrain at 8:54 AM on January 7, 2019 [51 favorites]

The most infuriating thing about that scam is that it works every single time, even up here in Canada*.

* I was going to write "Soviet Canuckistan," but given recent events that joke doesn't really work anymore.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:57 AM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

A Republican majority Senate is never going to impeach Trump. That's the reality.

That's certainly the case now, but after the Mueller report things might be different, maybe vastly different.
posted by M-x shell at 8:57 AM on January 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

Which does the impeaching, or not.

Not true. The Senate does the convicting or not. Impeachment is analogous to a grand jury bringing an indictment. That's why it's true to say that Clinton was impeached but not convicted.

This idea that we have to prioritize articles of impeachment over everything else is utter nonsense.

Yes, that is nonsense. Which is why I never said we should do that. In fact, I don't think anyone, in this thread or elsewhere, has said that we should prioritize impeachment over everything else. What people in this thread are saying is that we should also introduce articles of impeachment.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 8:59 AM on January 7, 2019 [27 favorites]

That would be the time to go on blast about the cost of the tax cuts and how much money they've made for the wealthy. "Why are we making people work harder for less and less money, so that the wealthy can take it for themselves?"
posted by Autumnheart at 8:59 AM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

(Then show a video of Trump hobnobbing around Mar-a-lago)
posted by Autumnheart at 8:59 AM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

We can't impeach any more than we could have obstructed Kavanaugh's appointment

Consider that the House could easily hold a hearing, and have as a witness Kavanaugh's college roommate, who contradicts Kavanaugh's sworn testimony that he was not a violent, blackout drunk.

Once Kavanaugh's perjury is documented, he must be impeached and removed.
posted by mikelieman at 9:00 AM on January 7, 2019 [14 favorites]

We do not have a majority in the Senate. Which does the impeaching, or not.

The House impeaches; the Senate removes. Priority one is to leave a stack of legislation for Mitch McConnell to defend ignoring; priority two is to restart actual oversight in the House; priority three is to turn that oversight into articles of impeachment, otherwise the impeachment power is vestigial absent blowjobs.
posted by holgate at 9:00 AM on January 7, 2019 [18 favorites]

Not terribly surprising, but worth noting: More coal plants have closed under Trump than in Obama's last term - CNNPolitics
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:01 AM on January 7, 2019 [20 favorites]

Folks, these threads do not hold up as extended strategy sessions, besides, this is a conversation we have every three weeks and it doesn't change. Please stick to concrete stuff. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 9:04 AM on January 7, 2019 [42 favorites]

If she does nothing else, AOC will provide a vital service by attracting all the hate from the haters so other progressives can get things done.

There is no evidence that the trolls limit themselves to only hating a few progressives or that their resources are in any way stretched thin.
posted by srboisvert at 9:18 AM on January 7, 2019 [10 favorites]

> (Then show a video of Trump hobnobbing around Mar-a-lago)

It could be a video of Trump and his flunkies lighting cigars with $100 bills and calling anyone with an hourly wage a loser, and it would just give his followers something to aspire to.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:21 AM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

I've lurked on the site since the early 2000's but made this account today specifically to drop into the megathread and advocate for calling all house members daily to ask for Articles of Impeachment. The gender non-conforming part of me is life-and-death scared of what comes next. Not holding hearings as soon as practicable legitimizes this administration and their fast march to fascism. I wonder daily if today is the day it is too late to escape.
posted by Manic Pixie Hollow at 9:26 AM on January 7, 2019 [87 favorites]

Some good local news from Tennessee:

Cyntoia Brown has been granted Clemency by Gov Haslam
posted by Twain Device at 9:27 AM on January 7, 2019 [68 favorites]

Seconding srboisvert. Also really side-eyeing the assertion, connected upthread with Warren and now with AOC, that Democratic women do us all a service by acting as punching bags for everyone who cares to take a swing.

These politicians do a vital service by serving their constituents. They're here to work, not to throw themselves into the path of the bus in the hope it'll grind on them so hard that it doesn't hit the next Dem hopeful. It's disheartening to see people say it's in any way okay for Democratic women get baselessly attacked, especially if the logic is that they're drawing fire away from, who? The "real" male politicians who get to do stuff while the women get derided and obstructed?
posted by wiremommy at 9:29 AM on January 7, 2019 [50 favorites]

At its core, the strategy is simple and elegant: When Republicans are in power, run up as much debt as possible, mostly by borrowing and giving that cash to the Republican donor class through tax cuts and corporate subsidies; when Democrats have political power, Republicans suddenly become hysterical about the debt and demand that Dems keep taxes low while cutting social spending.

This scam wouldn't work nearly as well if the media didn't instantly forget about the other hundreds of times the Republicans have run it as soon as Democrats retake power.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:41 AM on January 7, 2019 [43 favorites]

3 Democratic senators want to block all Senate bills until Mitch McConnell takes up a bill to reopen the government (Ella Nilsen, Vox)

Democratic Sens. Chris Van Hollen and Ben Cardin, both of Maryland, want to force McConnell’s hand — they’re calling for Senate Democrats to block votes on all bills unless it’s a funding bill to reopen the government. Both senators floated the idea on Twitter this weekend.

“Mitch, don’t delay. Let’s vote!” Van Hollen tweeted on Saturday. Cardin was quick to echo the sentiment, writing, “This isn’t business as usual. This is a crisis, a fundamental failure to govern, and Americans are suffering for it.”
...
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont joined Cardin and Van Hollen to call for blocking other bills besides a spending bill.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:48 AM on January 7, 2019 [65 favorites]

NYT, Trump Wants to Deliver Prime Time Address on Government Shutdown and Will Visit the Border

President Trump wants to address the nation about the government shutdown on Tuesday night, and later in the week plans to travel to the southern border as part of his effort to persuade Americans of the need for a border wall — the sticking point in negotiations with Democrats who are eager to reopen shuttered agencies.

The White House did not immediately respond to questions about a request to television networks to carve out time for an Oval Office address. A person familiar with the request said the White House had asked to interrupt prime time programming on Tuesday.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, announced Mr. Trump’s plans to travel to the border on Thursday, which would be the 20th day of the partial government shutdown if an agreement between Congress and the White House is not reached in the meantime.

I'm really surprised they haven't clued into this strategy sometime in the last two years: the system of asking for prime time air from the networks is exactly the kind of thing that is rife for abuse by Trump. In a sane world, they would refuse, given that the State of the Union is in a couple weeks already, he'll just use it to tell nonstop lies, and there literally is no crisis of illegal entries at the border to be addressed. If they don't refuse, it would also be a real opportunity for networks to serve their viewers by running it on a delay, splicing it up, and taking viewers through the facts piece by piece. Of course, I fear they'll treat him like any normal President and give him what he wants, which only encourages him to do this as often as possible now that he realizes that asking for air time is a thing he can do.

Apparently, at least two of the networks are still deliberating whether to give it to him.
posted by zachlipton at 10:12 AM on January 7, 2019 [44 favorites]

Realistically, what can get done until there's a spending bill? I know that as of Dec. 22, 2018, Commerce, EPA, as well as Health and Human Services were able to operate on carry-over funds, and some departments are already funded, so they can operate, but it looks like they are in the minority.

President Trump on Friday [September 21, 2018] signed a package of spending bills funding veterans, military construction and Energy Department programs for 2019, taking a first step toward keeping the federal government running when the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1.

The three-bill legislative package ensures programs for veterans, military construction projects, energy and water spending and legislative branch functions will be funded through 2019, regardless of what happens with the rest of the federal budget. (Washington Post)
posted by filthy light thief at 10:17 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

SHS apparently announced the trip to the border via a tweet, which I guess is how we do things now.

Interestingly, she described the situation at the border as a "humanitarian crisis," which is an interesting way to spin a situation for which the White House bears full culpability.
posted by schmod at 10:19 AM on January 7, 2019 [19 favorites]

zachlipton: Apparently, at least two of the networks are still deliberating whether to give it to him.

A stark reminder of how far from normal we are at this time that two networks are uncertain whether they should give the President of the United States airtime.

Of course, back in May 2016, Cable News Chose to Air Footage of Trump's Empty Podium Instead of Clinton's Union Speech, so maybe they're finally correcting past errors, TWO YEARS TOO LATE.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:19 AM on January 7, 2019 [27 favorites]

3 Democratic senators want to block all Senate bills until Mitch McConnell takes up a bill to reopen the government

I am kind of amazed (every time there's a shutdown) that Congress can do literally anything that isn't "end this shutdown". Seems like basic triage that a government has to be, like, open to do things.
posted by Etrigan at 10:19 AM on January 7, 2019 [27 favorites]

3 Democratic senators want to block all Senate bills until Mitch McConnell takes up a bill to reopen the government

itshappening.gif

@ThePlumLineGS: From senior Dem aide: Schumer has told Dem caucus he'll vote against proceeding to a vote on the bill being considered tomorrow "because Senate Republicans should instead bring to the floor the House-passed bills to reopen government." Looks like this may be coming together
posted by zachlipton at 10:23 AM on January 7, 2019 [66 favorites]

Welcome, Manic Pixie Hollow!
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 10:30 AM on January 7, 2019 [24 favorites]

Jerry Brown leaves the Governor’s Office for the last time
posted by growabrain at 10:43 AM on January 7, 2019 [14 favorites]

which only encourages him to do this as often as possible now that he realizes that asking for air time is a thing he can do.

If there's any bright side to this it's that his ratings are likely to be low the first time and progressively lower every time he tries it. So we'd get to watch him lie about his ratings for a week following.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:47 AM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Everybody has cable, how many would change the channel to ABC/NBC/CBS for this? It seems like there could be too many networks for him to really make a strong appearance.

Beyond that, I've been trying to push "the border wasn't a problem before" wherever I can, but somehow this question remains begged in the main.
posted by rhizome at 11:00 AM on January 7, 2019

A lot of people are "cutting the cord" and not using cable or over-the-air TV. Put it on Youtube!
posted by Autumnheart at 11:01 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

(Although that still runs into the issue of, "Like Donald Trump? Check out all these other Nazis" mentioned above.)
posted by Autumnheart at 11:02 AM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

Realistically, what can get done until there's a spending bill? I know that as of Dec. 22, 2018, Commerce, EPA, as well as Health and Human Services were able to operate on carry-over funds, and some departments are already funded, so they can operate, but it looks like they are in the minority.

Those carry-over funds were very short-term. EPA's ran out before New Year's. At this point as far as I'm aware all the affected agencies are out of appropriated cash, meaning "non-essential" employees are furloughed and anyone still working is unpaid. For EPA (which is my area of focus) that means about 800 employees split roughly 50/50 between headquarters in DC and the 10 regional offices, focused on things like immediate responses to pollution spills.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 11:03 AM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

Put it on YouTube!

Fuck no, he already has some stupidly wrong FUD advertisement parked at the top of my YouTube feed for the past couple of days. It's fucking infuriating because I can't even dismiss or close the stupid thing. I've taken to flagging the shit out of it as promoting harmful and dangerous acts.

A sitting president shouldn't be running outright propaganda ads packed full of lies and bullshit. Fuck you Google and YouTube for accepting this fucking asshole's money. Fuck you for radicalizing everything.
posted by loquacious at 11:11 AM on January 7, 2019 [29 favorites]

4. At this point, Trump has consistently reneged on previous deals where he's made broad promises. This means any deal with Trump needs all the details to be explicit before it's made.

That's also how he ran his businesses and why he kept having to declare bankruptcy. Breaking deals is how you collect angry creditors.
posted by Karmakaze at 11:15 AM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Politico, Judge blasts lawyers for Russian firm charged by Mueller

A judge publicly slammed the defense lawyers for a Russian company criminally charged by special counsel Robert Mueller, accusing the firm’s attorneys of submitting unprofessional and inappropriate court filings attacking Mueller’s office and of unwisely peppering legal briefs with jarring quotes taken from movies like Animal House.

“I’ll say it plain and simple: knock it off,” U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich told lawyers for the Russian company, Concord Management and Consulting, at a brief court hearing in Washington Monday morning.
...
“I found your recent filings, in particular your reply brief filed Friday, unprofessional, inappropriate and ineffective,” the judge said. She suggested the submissions were an effort to bully her into granting pending defense motions to give the owners and officers of Concord greater access to materials Mueller’s office has turned over to permit the defense to prepare for trial.
...
“I need to go and discuss this with my client,” said Dubelier, a former federal prosecutor now with law firm Reed Smith. “There appears to be some bias on the part of the court.”

Friedrich insisted that there was no bias and that the defense filings were patently inappropriate, but Dubelier disagreed.

“That’s your opinion,” the defense attorney said.

Russia hired a troll lawyer to troll these proceedings, and told to knock it off, the lawyer comes back with "that's your opinion," which is probably not a great thing to say to a federal judge.
posted by zachlipton at 11:22 AM on January 7, 2019 [62 favorites]

Even if literally no one switched from cable or Netflix or Youtube just to watch this, it would still reach a relatively gigantic audience.

Relatively is indeed the word, since 20M is less than 10% of the US population even if you only count 18+/voting eligible age. About 20% of the number of folks who actually cast a vote in 2018.
posted by phearlez at 11:22 AM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

The Economics of Soaking the Rich
What does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez know about tax policy? A lot. Krugman NYT.

I have no idea how well Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will perform as a member of Congress. But her election is already serving a valuable purpose. You see, the mere thought of having a young, articulate, telegenic nonwhite woman serve is driving many on the right mad — and in their madness they’re inadvertently revealing their true selves.
posted by bluesky43 at 11:24 AM on January 7, 2019 [62 favorites]

Food stamps denied in Indiana store as part of government shutdown

Pardon my earlier comment. The quoted Tweet above included a dead link to a story so I had to search on my own and in the process, mentally inflated the issue to ALL Indiana stores, not just the one. I also missed the fact that the store might not be able to correct the issue until after the shutdown is over, which is absolutely a problem for the exact reasons people gave above.

Note to self: Wait at least an hour after waking up before commenting.
posted by elsietheeel at 11:25 AM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

Besides, what's the goal of providing network airtime?
posted by Autumnheart at 11:25 AM on January 7, 2019

At worst they should put it on a time-delay and see if it's notable first,

Hey, remember the Beforetimes, when this is what the news was in its entirety?
posted by Etrigan at 11:27 AM on January 7, 2019 [15 favorites]

The three-bill legislative package ensures programs for veterans, military construction projects, energy and water spending and legislative branch functions will be funded through 2019, regardless of what happens with the rest of the federal budget. (Washington Post)

Am I wrong in thinking that this seems like a mistake by the Democrats? Letting funding through in dribs and drabs and one department at a time I mean? Especially letting the Republicans fund the stuff they like (the military, thier own paychecks) without also funding everything else?

It seems to me that at this point the Republicans will have no reason at all to vote for any bill reopening the entire government. Except for the military (which they magically consider to be somehow not really the government) hey hate the government and want it destroyed. "Drown it in the bathtub", right?

And now they've got the military funded and nothing else. Shouldn't the Democrats have held out for full funding instead of just giving the Republicans funding for the only part of the government they don't hate?

Or am I fundamentally misreading or misunderstanding what that means?
posted by sotonohito at 11:30 AM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

Maggie Haberman NYT

According to all our reporting, networks are still deciding this, have NOT agreed. White House is claiming otherwise and it isn't true. They may still end up agreeing, but haven't yet.
posted by bluesky43 at 11:30 AM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

Daily Beast, Lachlan, Top Trump Backer Financed Supreme Court Confirmation Fights Through Shadowy Network

A top conservative judicial activist used a sprawling web of interconnected groups to not only help fund President Donald Trump’s inauguration but to help pave the way for the confirmation of his Supreme Court nominees. The effort has been a resounding success, but Americans remain largely in the dark about who provided the tens of millions of dollars to bankroll it.

Previously unreported documents obtained by The Daily Beast provide the first glimpse into the finances of a key node in that network, traced to Federalist Society Executive Vice President Leonard Leo, a major player in Washington’s wars over the makeup of the federal judiciary.

There's a lot in here, so refer to Chris Geidner's summary for an overview:

here's the first story: America Engaged, you've never heard of it but it exists and has been funding groups involved in SCOTUS nomination fights.

Second story: CRC Public Relations. This is a group we actually know about, but we have no clue how much money they've been making to do the SCOTUS nomination PR work. Here's a sign it's a lot!

Then, there's the "Freedom and Opportunity Fund" — another group that's getting a lot of money from ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ and giving it to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

But wait, and here's the fourth story: Jon Kyl?! Seems like, at the least, he has some questions to answer here.

And, finally, oh yeah, all of this appears to be connected — somehow? — to the $1 million donation to Trump's inauguration fund.

posted by zachlipton at 11:31 AM on January 7, 2019 [18 favorites]

Shouldn't the Democrats have held out for full funding instead of just giving the Republicans funding for the only part of the government they don't hate?

I would say there's no way to come out looking good either way. Democrats can't exactly claim they're going to get the government running again, and then refuse to sign a funding bill.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:37 AM on January 7, 2019

Besides, what's the goal of providing network airtime?

A presidential address should be reserved for something consequential to the entire nation, and pretty much has been historically. The networks do have some public service inclination, and they'd ordinarily rather stay in the administration's good graces, provided the request isn't overused, or abused, like Trump is undoubtedly about to do.
posted by T.D. Strange at 11:43 AM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

Especially letting the Republicans fund the stuff they like (the military, their own paychecks) without also funding everything else?

The House strategy of splitting the remaining appropriates by department potentially puts specific senators on the spot -- especially the 2020 class -- about the bits of the federal government that have a significant presence in their particular states. Joni Ernst and Ben Sasse would be asked about USDA. Thom Tillis would be asked about national parks. And so on. Pass bills to fund the departments that provide federal assistance and money to their constituents and start peeling them off.
posted by holgate at 11:44 AM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

The greatest trick Trump ever pulled

CNN subtly alluding to Trump as Satan.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:45 AM on January 7, 2019 [10 favorites]

In which AOC owns the worst journalist in America:

CillizzaCNN: "I think that there's a lot of people more concerned about being precisely, factually, and semantically correct than about being morally right." -- @AOC
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's very slippery slope on facts

AOC: “And whenever I make a mistake, I say, "OK, this was clumsy." and then I restate what my point was. But it's— it's not the same thing as— as the President lying about immigrants. It's not the same thing, at all.” - the next sentence

Cover the quote in context, thanks.

CillizzaCNN: I did. It's in the piece. Just couldn't fit the entire quote due to Twitter character limit.

Parker Malloy: Hey @CillizzaCNN, why are you lying? You had enough characters to fit the entire next sentence in that tweet.

AOC: .@CillizzaCNN - looks like your ‘character count’ argument to avoid including my full quote is straight up wrong.

Also: where are all the “Pinocchios” for Republicans this week (many of whom are much more senior than me) blatantly lying about marginal tax rates?

posted by T.D. Strange at 11:54 AM on January 7, 2019 [72 favorites]

When Obama tried to address the nation about a comprehensive immigration reform proposal in 2014, all the broadcast networks turned him down because it was "overtly political."
posted by zombieflanders at 11:58 AM on January 7, 2019 [90 favorites]

They should agree to give him time only if they can do it on a delay and fact check it and put the facts across the bottom of the screen as he talks. The President* should be able to address the nation when it’s important, but he shouldn’t be able to lie to us and I see no reason why the networks should have to give him a prime time break-in to do it.

If it is at all partisan then it will be a massive violation of federal election law by both Donald Trump and the networks that air him for free (Remember Donald Trump is already campaigning).
posted by srboisvert at 12:04 PM on January 7, 2019 [21 favorites]

What would be an example of a threshold beyond which it would be partisan?

Part of me wants to pay out as much rope as possible, and the other part is glum about the chances of federal election law actually being enforced.
posted by Autumnheart at 12:08 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

zombieflanders: When Obama tried to address the nation about a comprehensive immigration reform proposal in 2014, all the broadcast networks turned him down because it was "overtly political."

In other words: we couldn't sell as much ad time. Trump is Politics As Reality TV Gold, which is part of why he got so much air time.

Trump: running the government as one of his businesses -- Not Expecting Back Pay, Government Contractors Collect Unemployment, Dip Into Savings (NPR, January 7, 2019) -- One expert estimates millions of contractors in the federal workforce won't receive back pay when the shutdown ends.

Reminds me of the glossed-over revelation: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills -- Among those who say ~~billionaire~~ trumped-up millionaire* didn't pay: dishwashers, painters, waiters (USA TODAY exclusive by Steve Reilly, June 9, 2016)

*Is Donald Trump Not Really a Billionaire? -- The Republican’s recent moves suggest he has something to hide. (Tin a Nguyen for Vanity Fair, May 31, 2016)

“If he is swimming in so much cash for all his holdings, why is he selling this stuff to raise cash?” one anonymous, fellow elite asked Politico, apparently rhetorically. “You would see that he doesn’t have the money that he claims to have and he’s not paying much of anything in taxes,” a hedge-fund manager, also anonymous to avoid Trump’s wrath, told the news outlet.
...
While Trump has lied about a great many things without serious repercussions, the revelation that his net worth is not what it appears could be extraordinarily damaging.

*cries for the world of What May Have Been if more people called him a liar in the Time Before*
posted by filthy light thief at 12:16 PM on January 7, 2019 [28 favorites]

What would be an example of a threshold beyond which it would be partisan?

Complaining about the results of the midterm and the Dems controlling the House should be more than enough, and it's hard to imagine Trump making an address like this without including those elements.
posted by contraption at 12:18 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Which brings me to the glum part--what are the chances that any agency would actually do anything if Trump did make it partisan? Largely rhetorical, I think we can safely extrapolate from past instances that no actual intervention will occur.
posted by Autumnheart at 12:22 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

@elwasson: OMB announces that IRS will send out tax refunds during the shutdown. Good news for taxpayers but likely takes pressure off of ending the impasse, so bad for federal workers not being paid

They're just throwing out longstanding policy with the aim of making the shutdown have no impact except on the workers who aren't getting paid.
posted by zachlipton at 12:27 PM on January 7, 2019 [18 favorites]

The networks that choose to air should require the Trump campaign put up hard money for 30 minutes of primetime to each network in escrow. If the speech slips into a campaign speech the networks can do whatever they want and I'll go see what's on Netflix.
posted by cmfletcher at 12:28 PM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

It’s ok, there’s plenty of money in tonnage and poundage, and ship money.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 12:38 PM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

CNN, Fox, and Fox Business have all said yes, but everyone else is apparently still deciding.

I'd really like to see someone run it on a delay and cut fact checks into it, ideally using the truth sandwich approach: give the broad truth of the situation first, air his specific claims if they're newsworthy, then fact-check what he says.
posted by zachlipton at 12:38 PM on January 7, 2019 [12 favorites]

I'm going to spoil the suspense for everyone... the networks will run it. Because nobody will want to be the only network not running it and they know that anyone who doesn't will be the target of attacks of partisanship and "enemy of the people" bullshit. Well, except maybe MSNBC 'cause they don't get any access anyway and have positioned themselves as the resistance network.

I won't go as far as to say that I don't blame the networks for that decision; it's not a particularly brave or ethical stance. But I understand it given that we're in uncharted territory where everyone is trying to figure out how to handle unprecedented situations on a weekly basis.

But, yeah, not particularly brave.
posted by Justinian at 12:45 PM on January 7, 2019 [18 favorites]

If it is at all partisan then it will be a massive violation of federal election law by both Donald Trump and the networks that air him for free (Remember Donald Trump is already campaigning).

Even if he stays on-message for a few moments (like, say, to declare a state of national emergency and order the arrest of the Democratic party,) everyone knows he's going to quickly go off-message and spiral out of control and make the address entirely, insanely political in his usual insane way, and that's tv gold for the networks. They'll all run it.
posted by Thorzdad at 12:48 PM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

The entire national emergency thing reminds me, yet again, that our nation is foolishly built on the assumption of good behavior by those in office.

Declaring a national emergency gives one person, the President, extraordinary powers far above and beyond their normal powers. And the decision as to whether or not to declare a national emergency lies with... THE PRESIDENT!

The declaration of a national emergency should not lie with the person who benefits from it. Make that a Congressional power that the President can ask Congress to invoke, and which requires a 2/3 majority in both houses to pass. In a real emergency they can have that vote done with in a few minutes.

Instead we have this cockamamie setup where the President can just unilaterally decide to invoke a national emergency to sidestep the (few remaining) limits on his authority. And, yet again, the Founders decided that it'd be fine because clearly no President would ever abuse that power, and of course if one did then naturally Congress would immediately impeach him.
posted by sotonohito at 12:50 PM on January 7, 2019 [41 favorites]

I have to wonder what kind of national emergency this would look like, considering so many federal workers are furloughed. Who would carry out the orders? Is he going to call out the military to the border and ....? While nobody's getting a paycheck?
posted by Autumnheart at 12:54 PM on January 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

Televised news media united in lockstep to broadcast an illegitimate president's threats to permanently kill the US federal government if he is not allowed his spike-tipped border wall and child prison camps is something beyond "not a good look."
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:55 PM on January 7, 2019 [68 favorites]

Instead we have this cockamamie setup where the President can just unilaterally decide to invoke a national emergency to sidestep the (few remaining) limits on his authority. And, yet again, the Founders decided that it'd be fine because clearly no President would ever abuse that power, and of course if one did then naturally Congress would immediately impeach him.

Not quite, I think... There's a National Emergencies Act that regulates how it works. Exactly how the Constitution provides for states of emergency is beyond my ken. It does provide that Habeus Corpus can only be suspended in case of rebellion or invasion.

I have to wonder what kind of national emergency this would look like, considering so many federal workers are furloughed. Who would carry out the orders? Is he going to call out the military to the border and ....? While nobody's getting a paycheck?

He could just pronounce everyone to be an "essential" worker and call them back from their furloughs. Is it legal? Who the heck knows. He could also demand that the Treasury (or whoever it is that actually dispenses government payroll) to just start cutting checks. Apparently this is what used to happen when Congress was late funding the government. The president could just declare that he's reinterpreting the Antideficiency Act and dare the courts to force the government to shut down again (and if at this point the federal courts are out of money, to force themselves to shut down).
posted by BungaDunga at 1:03 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Congress has explicitly provided all sorts of suspended powers to the President that can be used upon his declaration of an emergency, like taking over all communications technologies:

Allows the President to suspend or amend rules and regulations upon proclamation “that there exists a war or a threat of a war or state of public peril or disaster or other national emergency or if he deems it necessary in the interests of national security or defense.” The President may prioritize defense or security communications, authorize government use or control of communications facilities, and suspend or amend “rules and regulations applicable to any or all stations or devices capable of emitting electromagnetic radiations.” 47 U.S.C. § 606 (c), (d).

Who knows how this interacts with the Constitution, but on the face of it, Congress has given the President all sorts of totally over-the-top authorities that he could pull on if he wanted to try.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:10 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

VP Pence tells reporters White House Counsel’s office is looking into the legality of declaring a national emergency over the border wall demand...

I think it's pretty clear where this is going. Trump is going to declare a national emergency and revel in the ensuing chaos. I bet we aren't talking about how he botched the wall negotiations or the shutdown after that.
posted by diogenes at 1:18 PM on January 7, 2019 [22 favorites]

NBC News, Julia Ainsley, Only six immigrants in terrorism database stopped by CBP at southern border in first half of 2018

U.S. Customs and Border Protection encountered only six immigrants on the U.S-Mexico border in the first half of fiscal year 2018 whose names were on a federal government list of known or suspected terrorists, according to CBP data obtained by NBC News.

The low number contradicts statements by Trump administration officials, including White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders who said Friday that CBP stopped nearly 4,000 known or suspected terrorists from crossing the southern border in fiscal year 2018.

Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen told reporters on Monday the exact number, which NBC News is first to report, was classified but that she was working on making it public.

The fact that the White House says 4,000 when the actual number (of people merely suspected, which is not proof of anything) is 6 would be a prime reason not to give them unfettered prime time network air. Indeed, more people on the list are stopped at the northern border:

On the northern border, CBP stopped 91 people from the database, including 41 who were not American citizens or residents.

posted by zachlipton at 1:18 PM on January 7, 2019 [26 favorites]

It's worth noting that Erdogan's full of shit when he refers to the YPG as a terrorist organization. The YPG militia exists to defend the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, one of the biggest success stories for the left in today's world. Their governmental system is substantially inspired by libertarian socialist theorist Murray Bookchin's concept of "communalism," and it is deeply humanist, ecologically conscious, and feminist.

I learned about this through this great essay by Bookchin's daughter. Here is her description of the YPG and the society they're fighting to protect:

As the Syrian civil war enters its eighth year, most Westerners are familiar with images of the Kalashnikov-toting men and women of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, known respectively as the YPG, which is mostly male, and the YPJ, the all-female units. These militias have fought and died by the thousands across the battlefields of Syria as the leading units of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the multi-ethnic force supported by the United States in the campaign against ISIS. Less often acknowledged is what they are fighting for: the chance to achieve not only political self-determination but also a new form of direct democracy in which every member of the community has an equal say in the popular assemblies that address the issues of their neighborhoods and towns—that is, democracy without a central state.

(...)

In 2014, the three cantons established their autonomy as the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria, which became commonly known as Rojava, the Kurdish word for “West” (Syria being the most western portion of greater Kurdistan). Though still known informally as Rojava, the Kurds officially dropped the name in 2016, in recognition of the multi-ethnic nature of the region and of their commitment to freedom for all, not just the Kurdish people. The Democratic Federation (or DFNS) is founded on a document called the “Charter of the Social Contract,” whose Preamble declares the aspiration to build “a society free from authoritarianism, militarism, centralism and the intervention of religious authority in public affairs.” It also “recognizes Syria’s territorial integrity and aspires to maintain domestic and international peace”—a formal renunciation by Syrian Kurds of the idea of a separate state for their people. Instead, they envisage a federated system of self-determining municipalities.

In the ninety-six articles that follow, the Contract guarantees all ethnic communities the right to teach and be taught in their own languages, abolishes the death penalty and ratifies the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and similar conventions. It requires public institutions to work toward the complete elimination of gender discrimination, and requires by law that women make up at least 40 percent of every electoral body and that they, and ethnic minorities, serve as co-chairs at all levels of government administration. The Social Contract also promotes a philosophy of ecological stewardship that guides all decisions about town-planning, economics, and agriculture, and runs all industries, where possible, according to collective principles. The document even guarantees political rights to teenagers.

Turkey is deeply opposed to this experiment in direct democracy, and they benefit greatly from smearing its militia as a "terrorist group."
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 1:29 PM on January 7, 2019 [54 favorites]

rhizome You'd hope, but no. To the MAGAHats the border is being overrun by hoards, and as evidence they'll point to the people repelled by tear gas a few weeks ago. That, in their minds, is a national emergency. They'll also vaguely mumble about drugs and terrorism, but Trumps manufactured event at the border did its job and is now the go to video for MAGAHats declaring that the border is basically a war zone and must be secured. Whatever "secured" might mean.

Its important to remember that the wall is, to them, The Wall. Less an actual physical thing and more the panacea, or icon, or idol, that will fix all their problems and Make America Great Again. It is a matter more of faith than reason and as such is impervious to reason. They want The Wall because only The Wall can fix our problems, restore Leave It to Beaver as the model of American life, banish the people of color and other undesirables, and give them great paying jobs with great benefits.

The facts that a) there is no border crisis, and b) even if there was a stupid wall wouldn't do anything about it, don't matter anymore. This has turned into their apocalyptic showdown between good and evil, and we've been cast as the vile forces of darkness hellbent on the destruction not merely of America but of all that is right and good in the world.
posted by sotonohito at 1:33 PM on January 7, 2019 [30 favorites]

sotonohito, I prefer your version of the expected Armageddon/Rapture/End of the World, whatever, than the bomb being flung around randomly in our shithole countries.
posted by infini at 1:36 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

everyone knows he's going to quickly go off-message and spiral out of control and make the address entirely, insanely political in his usual insane way, and that's tv gold for the networks.

Yeah, not many networks are going to risk a failure to broadcast the President shitting his pants on live TV. At least not the first time.

"Can we film the operation?
Is the head dead yet?
You know, the boys in the newsroom
Got a running bet."

posted by octobersurprise at 1:36 PM on January 7, 2019 [15 favorites]

The facts that a) there is no border crisis, and b) even if there was a stupid wall wouldn't do anything about it, don't matter anymore.

This is alarmingly true and a sign of how far down the road of fascism we've already traveled.
posted by diogenes at 1:43 PM on January 7, 2019 [41 favorites]

The facts that a) there is no border crisis, and b) even if there was a stupid wall wouldn't do anything about it, don't matter anymore.

This seems defeatist in the face of not even having tried. There is just as much evidence of it not working as there is threats at the border.
posted by rhizome at 1:46 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

This seems defeatist in the face of not even having tried.

Tonight and tomorrow would be a good time for Democrats to maybe try giving some speeches from the House and Senate floor detailing all the ways that the Trump administration is lying about the crisis on the border.
posted by diogenes at 1:50 PM on January 7, 2019 [28 favorites]

Turkey is deeply opposed to this experiment in direct democracy, and they benefit greatly from smearing its militia as a "terrorist group."

i'm sure that turkey would be opposed to them even if they took the turkish constitution and copied it down word for word, replacing "Turkey" with "Northern Syria".

turkey's approach to any kind of kurdish self-determination movement anywhere within spitting distance of their borders has always been genocidal eliminationism, because if a kurdish state gets on the map and gets any kind of diplomatic recognition, the turks are sure that it will be about five minutes before the kurds demand that they cede turkish kurdistan to the new government.
posted by murphy slaw at 1:50 PM on January 7, 2019 [12 favorites]

the turks are sure that it will be about five minutes before the kurds demand that they cede turkish kurdistan to the new government.
(which might be true because the Turkish government has tortured and disenfranchised Kurds since the beginning of modern Turkey. It's not simple)
posted by mumimor at 1:58 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

I.R.S. Will Issue Tax Refunds During Shutdown, Trump Official Says

It's convenient that all the stuff that would be the most visible (national parks, tax returns) are somehow exempt from the shutdown but SNAP etc isn't.
posted by BungaDunga at 2:03 PM on January 7, 2019 [21 favorites]

well, national parks aren't exempt, but it's obvious they shouldn't be open without park rangers, and yet...
posted by BungaDunga at 2:04 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

cjelli: "At worst they should put it on a time-delay and see if it's notable first, which it probably won't be; if it is, then, maybe make a call to carry it on a delay, but only do it once you can throw up some analysis alongside."

They should also offer equal time to opposition parties.
posted by Mitheral at 2:14 PM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

WP: The Justice Department’s public integrity section is examining whether newly departed Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke lied to his agency’s inspector general investigators, according to three people familiar with the matter, a potential criminal violation that would exacerbate Zinke’s legal woes.

Every official except for the President is indictable right now, AFAIK, and the best way forward is for Mueller, SDNY or a state prosecutor to indict someone like Zinke. Democrats should immediately launch impeachment proceedings against the first one indicted, and force Republicans to defend an indicted perp clearly headed toward conviction, or break ranks and support impeachment.

Either they create a good model for Trump's impeachment, or set up a damning issue for every Republican in the 2020 election.
posted by msalt at 2:21 PM on January 7, 2019 [11 favorites]

CNN, Fox, and Fox Business have all said yes [to prime time for Trump's address], but everyone else is apparently still deciding.

CNN doesn't count because of course all news networks will show it -- though they could certainly frame and comment in real time, with an inset window or CGI -- and Fox doesn't count because duh.

As long as NBC, ABC, and CBS hold firm, there is hope. Everyone with some time should contact these networks and let them know it would be horribly partisan to give Trump this time when they refused it to Obama on the exact same issue.
posted by msalt at 2:25 PM on January 7, 2019 [16 favorites]

Politico, Nahal Toosi, Pompeo, in Cairo speech, to rebuke Obama’s Mideast vision. Ok we expect that, but this goes well beyond that into utter insanity:

Pompeo is slated to tell his audience that Obama — although he may not name the former president — misled the people of the Middle East about the true source of terrorism, including what contributed to the rise of the Islamic State, according to the people briefed.

Pompeo will insist that Iran, a country Obama tried to engage, is the real terrorist culprit. The speech’s drafts also have Pompeo suggesting that Iran could learn from the Saudis about human rights and the rule of law, two people briefed said.

Such assertions, should Pompeo ultimately make them, are sure to get pushback, not only from aides to Obama but also from experts on the region.

For one thing, the main terrorist groups in the region, such as Al-Qaeda and its offshoots, as well as the Islamic State, are dominated by Sunni Muslim extremists. Iran is a majority-Shiite Muslim country that has fought against some of the same militants.

And Saudi Arabia is widely considered one of the most repressive countries in the world, especially for women. By several measures, Iranians are freer than Saudis.

Pompeo is also due to applaud Saudi Arabia for bringing to justice the killers of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post contributing columnist, two people briefed said.

posted by zachlipton at 2:28 PM on January 7, 2019 [22 favorites]

CNN reporting that the prime time event is off, but there will be "oval office speech tomorrow, visit to southern border on thursday"
posted by yesster at 2:31 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

The entire national emergency thing reminds me, yet again, that our nation is foolishly built on the assumption of good behavior by those in office.

Another reminder that many tech-bro "innovations" have had their start with exactly this same set of assumptions. And that many of those services have done much of the heavy lifting of our current fascist revival.

Could we please match every idealist with a cynic when it comes time to craft policy?
posted by maxwelton at 2:39 PM on January 7, 2019 [12 favorites]

CNN reporting that the prime time event is off, but there will be "oval office speech tomorrow, visit to southern border on thursday"

Do you have a source for that? I can't find it anywhere?
posted by codacorolla at 2:41 PM on January 7, 2019 [2 favorites]

CNN reporting that the prime time event is off, but there will be "oval office speech tomorrow, visit to southern border on thursday"

That's... interesting? Maybe the broadcast networks actually did something unshitty and said they weren't going to air it, so Trump backed down rather than look like an irrelevant chump? I hope we get more information on this.
posted by Justinian at 2:41 PM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Do you have a source for that? I can't find it anywhere?

Poking around twitter for more information/a source, this automated CNN chyron reader seems to have picked it up.

Never heard of that reader before but apparently it's from Archive.org
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 2:54 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Called my Senators about the shutdown, my first call of 2019, to discover that Marsha Blackburn doesn't have (a) a Nashville office yet or (b) phone lines for any Tennessee office. I asked why she doesn't have phones yet and the guy said, "a little trouble with technology" (???) and I replied, "she's known she's going to be Senator for two months" and he said, "we're not allowed to set up phone lines until her term starts." Anybody knows if that's true?
posted by joannemerriam at 2:55 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Poking around twitter for more information/a source, this automated CNN chyron reader seems to have picked it up.

But that just seems to confirm he will be making a primetime address from the Oval, not that he won't be. Until we hear otherwise I'm gonna assume yesster misheard and it's still on, I think.
posted by Justinian at 2:59 PM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

Fucking Fuck venting thread 17ish gentle reminder.
posted by yoga at 3:00 PM on January 7, 2019 [5 favorites]

Its important to remember that the wall is, to them, The Wall. Less an actual physical thing and more the panacea, or icon, or idol, that will fix all their problems and Make America Great Again.

In other words, the want the Wall in their hearts to be made manifest.
posted by mikelieman at 3:04 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

@grynbaum: Just in: @CBSNews *will* take Trump's Oval Office speech live tomorrow night at 9pm.

@poniewozik: CBS once had an anchor whose signoff was "Courage."
posted by zachlipton at 3:07 PM on January 7, 2019 [32 favorites]

Lets just take it that I misunderstood the CNN chyron
posted by yesster at 3:10 PM on January 7, 2019 [1 favorite]

I was talking about Democrats needing to speak up. My rep (Joe Kennedy III) just tweeted this:

There’s one connective thread from @realDonaldTrump’s 2015 escalator ride to his government shutdown: a deep, deceitful hatred of immigrants. He will keep lying & fear-mongering until GOP stands up to him.

That's the right idea, but I'd like to move past the idea that tweeting counts as taking a stand.
posted by diogenes at 3:14 PM on January 7, 2019 [16 favorites]

All it would take is a few prominent people to ask, "but wait, what's the actual problem at the border?" There is none, so maybe shine a light on that?

posted by rhizome at 1:19 PM on January 7 [15 favorites +] [!]

No, that wouldn't undo the years of brainwashing that a huge chunk of the population has undergone. Never mind that terrorists wouldn't sneak into the country, because that would limit their freedom of movement to point of futility, or that the northern border is a more likely source and we are stopping them already. There is no, I mean zero evidence that a wall would make spit's worth of difference in undocumented migration. That's what needs to be said, over and over again. The nonsense they spout about rich people's walled homes and communities, and the Israeli walls needs to be pushed back on at every turn.
posted by Mental Wimp at 3:27 PM on January 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

I'm assuming Trump could unilaterally end the Mueller investigation under his emergency powers?
posted by Thorzdad at 3:31 PM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

So the end game for Trump is maybe this: declare emergency power to fund the wall, tell Congress to send him a bill funding the rest of the government ending the shutdown and he'll sign it, await the incoming lawsuits that target the emergency declaration and the funding, and between now and 2020, bitch and moan about the democrats and the democrat judges who have stymied his Wall plans.

This plan let's him off the hook for the shutdown (which is a loser for him and the GOP) and it gets Ann Coulter off his back (he doesn't look "foolish" and weak), but let's him keep the Wall and the border as base motivators.

I guess??
posted by notyou at 4:01 PM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

So the end game for Trump is maybe this

It's definitely that. Plus trying a bunch of other constitutionally questionable shit with his emergency powers. All with the side benefit of further crippling the US to the benefit of our adversaries.
posted by diogenes at 4:13 PM on January 7, 2019

@brianstelter: Update to the update: NBC, ABC, and CBS will all carry Trump's address Tuesday night. Wall to wall coverage of his pro-wall speech. Hopefully surrounded by fact-checking.

Nothing matters.
posted by zachlipton at 4:16 PM on January 7, 2019 [27 favorites]

This is my complete lack of surprise face.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:29 PM on January 7, 2019 [8 favorites]

Hopefully surrounded by fact-checking.

Yes, Brian, I am sure the media will do their job while they willingly act as the mouthpiece of a fascist supervillain.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:32 PM on January 7, 2019 [11 favorites]

What I wish they'd do, instead of a rebuttal afterward from the Democrats, is to let the Democrats talk *first* -- and promote the heck out of it, so people would tune in early and see both talks.

Trying to unravel Trump's lies is a losing battle. Let the Democrats get the facts on the record up front. Then Team Trump would have to call an audible on his address and it'd be a delicious, horrible meltdown.
posted by martin q blank at 4:39 PM on January 7, 2019 [3 favorites]

You know how dogs will spend ten minutes “digging a nest” in their doggie bed, because they evolved to do it over a very long time and they haven’t figured out that things have radically changed?

That’s why the networks are broadcasting the President’s speech tomorrow.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:45 PM on January 7, 2019 [36 favorites]

Politico's Michael Calderone: CBS says the address will run no longer than 8 minutes, according to the White House.

Also…

------------> NEW THREAD ------------>

"I may declare a national emergency dependent on what's gonna happen…"

------------> NEW THREAD ------------>
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:49 PM on January 7, 2019 [21 favorites]

🥛🍪🍪
posted by bcd at 4:55 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

Warren, who has not otherwise mentioned the president by name on this trip, added that she could “not stop Donald Trump from what he’s gonna do,” including “hurling racial insults.”

“Yes, you can!” shouted Glenda Verhoeven, a 63-year old farmer in the audience. Afterward, Verhoeven explained that she thought Trump had revealed just how nervous Warren made him: “She already knows the enemy, and he knows her.”

...

Lord knows whether these particular voters are representative of Iowa Democrats as a whole. But these exchanges suggest some Democrats are now intimidated by Trump’s criticisms of their candidates, and dread their candidates giving him more “fodder.” He’s in their heads, and that’s a bad sign for the party, because Trump will always find something to mock and criticize in his Democratic foes.

If the Democratic grassroots really do get irritated with their candidates when Trump calls them names because they think they gave him fodder, then a lot of candidates are in for a long, difficult year.

posted by clawsoon at 4:57 PM on January 7, 2019 [4 favorites]

So...Assuming Trump declares a national emergency, how do legal challenges happen? Who launches a challenge? Can the court (I assume a challenge goes straight to SCOTUS?) stay the emergency while the challenge is heard?

Goddammit, I had to live through Watergate, and I never imagined I’d live to see anything even more fucked-up than that. *sigh*
posted by Thorzdad at 5:01 PM on January 7, 2019 [6 favorites]

Clawsoon, that’s not how I read what Ms. Verhoeven is saying. I read it more as “go get the big man baby!” Perhaps my optimism is showing.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:44 PM on January 7, 2019 [7 favorites]

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