misnaming conventions in US history are a disservice
March 18, 2020 9:29 PM   Subscribe

Journalist Robert Evans [twitter](Bahind the Bastards, Worst Year Ever) last year hosted the podcast It Could Happen Here [iHeart, stitcher, apple] about what shape a second American Civil War could take.

as always, music provided by Four Fists [Forbes, 'Nobody's Biz' official video, Consequence of Sound]

before we begin, let's keep in mind:
Stop worrying about a second civil war - "From fiction to hashtags to serious think-pieces, worries about a society coming undone reflect deep anxieties over the political, social and economic divisions roiling the country.
But these fears are unfounded. And, in fact, these professed fears about our future actually provide hope. Perhaps one of the most striking differences between now and the Civil War era is how we talk about our national goals and collective actions. Civil War Americans anticipated a different future than we do. They declared optimism about the future and believed violence could hasten it. We express anxiety about tomorrow and fear that warfare will destroy it."

A Second American Civil War - "A second civil war? Probably not. But the way Trump and his defenders are behaving, it’s not absurd to imagine serious social unrest. That’s how low he’s taken us."

What are the chances that America’s disunion turns into Civil War? - "When we look at the recent civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya, or at places such as Egypt where civil war has been averted, nothing matters so much as the stance and strength of the armed forces. We have to conclude that the American Civil War Doomsday Clock does not stand at two, or even 52, minutes to midnight. The very idea is ridiculous. So long as the armed forces remain true to their highest traditions, it will not matter how angry the American people get or how badly their politicians behave. There will be no second Civil War."

Stop making second American Civil War clickbait - "Also underlying the titillated interest in civil war and civic armageddon, however, is an extreme fatigue with muddling along through clearly dysfunctional institutions. Instead of tiresome and exhausting transfers of powers, every four or eight years, between a white rural coalition devoted to shrinking the state and a multiethnic urban coalition attempting to reinflate it, what if the two sides just got onto a battlefield and fought it out, once and for all?
At best, this is a pointless and distracting form of anti-politics. At worst, constant LARPing of the Civil War and Weimar can serve to make the case that the stakes now are equivalent and deserving of equally extreme and violent remedies."

Nobody's Biz
EPISODE ONE: The Second American Civil War
Did that seem far-fetched to you? Outlandish? If so, let me try to show you why the preceding passage might well be reality for millions of Americans, startlingly soon, if something isn't done. The Second American Civil war doesn't sound like a crazy, distant possibility to me, and it hasn't for a while.
Why A New Civil War Will Be Fought By A Thousand Sides if It Could Happen Here: 5 Ways Civil War Changes Modern Life and 6 Reasons Why A New Civil War Is Possible And Terrifying

How Likely Is A New American Civil War? since Nearly A Third Of Americans Believe A Second Civil War Is On The Horizon and A SF officer turned diplomat estimates chances at 60 percent
Will we have a 2nd Civil War? You tell me.
What Democratic Rage Would Look Like
America’s Next Civil War
The antigovernment extremists know who they are. They see themselves as the true Americans. And who could deny there’s a certain justice in the claim? What could be more American than tax rebellion, the worship of violence as political salvation, a mangled misinterpretation of the Constitution, and a belief system derived sui generis that blurs passionate belief with straight hucksterism? The next American civil war will not look like the first American Civil War. It will not be between territories over resources and the right to self-determination. It will be a competition over distinct ideas of what America is. It will be a war fought over what America means. Is it a republic with checks and balances or a place that yields to the whims of a president’s executive power? Is the United States a country of white settlers or a nation of immigrants? It’s also possible, maybe probable, that the country will never get answers.
recently, The Virginia gun rights rally raising fears of violence, explained, The Boogaloo: Extremists’ New Slang Term for A Coming Civil War, 2nd Amendment Freakout: Civil War 2


EPISODE TWO: The Revenge of Rural America
Rural divide - "The political divide between rural and urban America is more cultural than it is economic, rooted in rural residents’ deep misgivings about the nation’s rapidly changing demographics, their sense that Christianity is under siege and their perception that the federal government caters most to the needs of people in big cities, according to a wide-ranging poll that examines cultural attitudes across the United States."
Republicans Don’t Understand Democrats—And Democrats Don’t Understand Republicans
Urban and rural America are different worlds. Sort of.
No, the Divide in American Politics Is Not Rural vs. Urban, and Here’s the Data to Prove It and be careful what you mean when you say "Rural"

EPISODE THREE: The State Strikes Back
Ferguson And The Lessons Of Conflict Zone Policing. A Stability Police Force For The United States [PDF]
5 ways police have already started the next civil war
decolorized american flags[previously] and tomahawks in US invasion of Iraq
Why America's police forces look like invading armies while Militarization fails to enhance police safety or reduce crime but may harm police reputation as the line blurs between cops and soldiers
You could be in a police line-up right now as facial recognition gives police a powerful new tracking tool.

EPISODE FOUR: How To Save America

I'm a handmade handgun, operated by paper crooks
EPISODE FIVE: How The American People Can Beat The American Military
FULL SPECTRUM OPERATIONS IN THE HOMELAND: A “VISION” OF THE FUTURE
Texas man sentenced in 3D-printed gun case, had 'hit list' of US lawmakers. 3D-printed guns are back, and this time they are unstoppable in Four Ways 3D Printing May Threaten Security
meanwhile
Terrorists’ Use of Drones Promises to Extend Beyond Caliphate Battles and you can watch this Scary First-Hand Experience Of An ISIS Drone Attack



I fell in love with the most beautiful vulture
EPISODE SIX: The Good Side Of The American Civil War
Compared to their neighbors, those who had been exposed to more violence were also more trusting of others. They were more active in their communities and more likely to vote.: Can War Foster Cooperation?, Bauer et al., CIvil War And Social Cohesion[PDF], Gilligan et al.,

just close the windows and lock the doors
EPISODE SEVEN: How To Murder A City
"Please Go" - We know it's coming home, it's coming home

The Era Of Feral City Warfare
URBAN LEGEND: IS COMBAT IN CITIES REALLY INEVITABLE? Read The Urban Warfare Project.
Terror, Aleppo and Mosul: three styles of urban warfare. Watch out for the "strongest gang".

who the boss, who on top boy? Not you.
EPISODE EIGHT: The Next American Genocide
Would it look like the previous one?
The detention camps at the southern border: crowded, dirty, diseased, fit into the history on concentration camps and are similar to other concentration camps throughout history

G.D.F.R.
EPISODE 9: The American Refugee Crisis
People may try to escape the Divided States of America

Joe Strummer's Been Dead For Too Damn Long
EPISODE 10: The End Of The United States Of America
Don't Be A Gray Man

Laurie Penny: "Mad Max" Is A Feminist Playbook For Surviving Dystopia
The question is not how we’re going to survive the droughts, the floods, the dimming of the lights across the world. The question is: How will we survive each other?
The answer is that we will survive together.
what kind of candle has a wick at both ends?
posted by the man of twists and turns (18 comments total) 36 users marked this as a favorite
 
If posts like this are a side effect of self isolation or shelter in place, we could be heading for a golden age on the blue.

I have only begun to click the links.
posted by vrakatar at 9:41 PM on March 18, 2020 [6 favorites]


I have long believed that the fundamental conflict in these times is between extremism and relativism, and the stakes are the salvation of our species.
posted by hypnogogue at 9:44 PM on March 18, 2020 [2 favorites]


But these fears are unfounded.

America's broken system installed a president who openly breaks laws and flaunts that his cronies let him get away with it.

He has made conscious decisions about how this epidemic has been handled, decisions which have killed and will kill more Americans, in order to improve his chances of getting re-elected.

Never underestimate the moral depths of Republicans, nor their seeming current willingness to use xenophobic rhetoric and policy to turn the coronavirus pandemic into our generation's Reichstag fire.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:02 PM on March 18, 2020 [16 favorites]


The government has Abrams tanks and Apache helicopters. I'm putting my money on them.
posted by Beholder at 10:05 PM on March 18, 2020 [6 favorites]


the fundamental conflict in these times is between extremism and relativism

"Relativism" is the view that every belief on a certain topic, or perhaps about any topic, is as good as every other. No one holds this view. Except for the occasional cooperative freshman, one cannot find anybody who says that two incompatible opinions on an important topic are equally good. The philosophers who get called 'relativists' are those who say that the grounds for choosing between such opinions are less algorithmic than had been thought."
-Richard Rory
posted by Pyrogenesis at 10:12 PM on March 18, 2020 [8 favorites]


I think the coronavirus is going to end up changing many things.

When the entire world is shut down, what happens? When WFH becomes the standard, what happens? When no one can pay their bills, because they got laid off, what happens? When the elderly, who are traditionally the conservative base die off from COVID-19 disapportionally, what happens?

I think that a lot of our assumptions about the way things are are going to be changing in the next few months.
posted by Windopaene at 10:49 PM on March 18, 2020 [8 favorites]


"when WFH becomes the standard" will apply to many, and many of the most vocal and most able to comment on the new reality, and discuss with others about it - but will not apply to most. The vast majority of the work that cares for people, or addresses people's real needs, will not be done by those working from home. It will continue, it will need to continue, and as-of-yet unimagined changes will occur to enable it, but work -- done outside of the home -- will continue.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 11:06 PM on March 18, 2020 [6 favorites]


Did we ever really finish the last civil war?
posted by The Underpants Monster at 12:20 AM on March 19, 2020 [27 favorites]


White nationalist hate groups have grown 55% in Trump era, report finds

[Stephen] Miller’s attempts to insert white nationalist talking points into rightwing news website Breitbart’s coverage of the 2016 election were exposed last year, but the administration has retained him in his senior role.

While the report concludes the overall number of hate groups dipped 8% on 2018’s record numbers, it says that this “does not reflect a significant diminishment of the radical right”, and that other kinds of hate groups continue to grow in number.

Along with the increase in white nationalist groups, there was an increase in homophobic and transphobic organizations, with anti-LGBTQ groups increasing 43% in 2019. Many of those highlighted in the SPLC report are religious fundamentalists.

posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:31 AM on March 19, 2020 [4 favorites]


He has made conscious decisions about how this epidemic has been handled, decisions which have killed and will kill more Americans, in order to improve his chances of getting re-elected.

This is on my mind. Combined with the Fox News / "conservative" propaganda that has put out disinformation about an epidemic that is all but certain to contribute to the deaths of many, many Americans.

How else can I understand this other than a hostile power waging part of a war on the people of the United States?

When the elderly, who are traditionally the conservative base die off from COVID-19 disapportionally, what happens?

I would not count on it playing out this way. The hot zones are going to be urban areas first. That's where most of the deaths will happen because of course that's where most of the people are and opportunities for transmission. The response from this point forward might well keep the toll smaller in smaller states. And then of course Fox News et all will do whatever it takes to make sure it's seen as a liberal failure, Obama's fault, see California had more people die than Wyoming, and get all its surviving viewers to dance on the graves of dead coastal elite, because that's what they do.

Every last monstrous individual driving these media machines can't be understood as anything other than the enemy of the people they accuse everyone else of being. They will stop at nothing to totally replace the American experiment with thing they lust after without regard to any other principle: a society of privilege for themselves and theirs, where they can abuse freely and are accountable to nothing and no one.

We are already at war with these people, whether or not there is ever another large scale conventional military conflict. And about to see large scale casualties unless we're very lucky.
posted by wildblueyonder at 2:14 AM on March 19, 2020 [9 favorites]


Jared Yates recently posted a thread about how the Evangelical death cult is interpreting COVID—19 as a sign of the End Times.
posted by pxe2000 at 4:27 AM on March 19, 2020 [2 favorites]


I feel like Moscow was smart enough to figure that the easiest way to kill Americans and shake us up was to fund the NRA lobby.

But I also feel like the US, as terrible as the FBI has been / can be, is moving toward identifying these kinds of actions as white supremacist terrorism, foreign and domestic. We re way beyond 'Bleeding Kansas' and even the Black Panthers' stance on guns. The Black Lives Matter movement is studiously nonviolent, and holds rallies for cops. One side is moving the power of the state, even as the old order is hanging on.

But white supremacist terror has been the nature of how the peace was broken after the civil war, and it is still how the peace is being broken.

I hope that Americans can remember, though, that it was rural, Union southerners, black and white, who fought the confederacy and won the civil war, alongside the army, against slavery. This lesson still seems untaught.

So here s an amazing drunk history on unsung generals of the freedom fight.
posted by eustatic at 4:56 AM on March 19, 2020 [3 favorites]


The government has Abrams tanks and Apache helicopters. I'm putting my money on them.

The wild card, of course, is that the people most likely to erupt into armed conflict are rabid supporters of the Commander in-Chief. Many of them also have strong ties to, or are serving in, the military. I'm having a hard time imagining 1) Trump sending the military against his base (no matter how destructive they get), and 2) Many in the military obeying orders to go up against people they fundamentally agree with.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:14 AM on March 19, 2020


I hope that Americans can remember, though, that it was rural, Union southerners, black and white, who fought the confederacy and won the civil war, alongside the army, against slavery.

I don't think I understand what you're referring to, can you please elaborate?
posted by PMdixon at 6:07 AM on March 19, 2020


Note that Evans has been extremely clear in all of his podcast work (including his current podcasts Behind the Bastards and Worst Year Ever) that what we need to be most focused on is trying to build bridges between groups of people who are often alienated from one another, while strongly opposing fascism in all of its forms. We cannot rely on lazy classism and regionalism to keep us safe; we must reach out and connect with and protect one another.

Most recently, he and his co-hosts on Worst Year Ever have produced an episode ("The Reasonable Person's Guide to Prepping") on preparing for disasters from a left-leaning perspective that assumes the point of preparation is to be able to share with your neighbors and hold society together in a worst case scenario. Note that he and his co-hosts do not think we are currently in a situation where we need to worry about armed conflict.

The best thing that we can do is reach out to our neighbors, anyone who isn't already being hateful, and try to help one another. The most important thing we can do now is to create networks of solidarity and mutual aid. The Worst Year Ever crew have also recently created a Google Doc coordinating existing mutual aid projects, suggesting how to start your own, and offering helpful suggestions for community building and support in the time of disaster.

It is a mistake to think about this potential civil war as an "us vs them" conflict to prepare a military defense against, and that is very clear in the podcast itself. It is also a mistake to think about Evans' conflict work as a doomsaying prophecy of what will happen here. The work is intended to tell us what might happen and spur action, not paralyze anyone to sit in frozen terror.

Let's get out and help one another.
posted by sciatrix at 8:02 AM on March 19, 2020 [11 favorites]


Excellent work, o man of twists and turns.

The political divide between rural and urban America

They're still sore because of the Rural Purge.

Did we ever really finish the last civil war?

Clearly, no.
posted by Rash at 10:14 AM on March 19, 2020 [1 favorite]


It Could Happen Here was, too me, less of a useful serious investigation of what a modern American civil war would look like than an effective tool for building empathy and understanding for the millions of people who are, at this very moment, enduring the conditions described in the show.
posted by Reyturner at 10:49 AM on March 19, 2020 [1 favorite]


MetaFilter: I have only begun to click the links.
posted by bryon at 1:38 AM on March 21, 2020 [1 favorite]


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