I guess we should have a Canadian election thread

September 20, 2021 7:34 AM

Because I guess there's a Canadian election today.
posted by clawsoon (399 comments total)

Does anyone know how reliable the 338 Canada polling is? They have riding-specific polling and predictions, which I am very interested in. But it doesn't look like they actually poll people?

Also very interested to see how the polling stations go today - I am anticipating some confrontations between anti-maskers and Elections Canada staff.
posted by hepta at 7:50 AM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

This election is depressing even by Canadian standards. It should never have been called.

Anyway, best wishes to Jagmeet Singh and the NDP. Best case scenario as I can see is status quo ante election with another Liberal/NDP minority. Hopefully the ridiculous assholes voting PPC will split the vote on the right enough for that to happen.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:50 AM on September 20, 2021 [31 favorites]

Can I just say this is the first time I’ve been on television?
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:50 AM on September 20, 2021 [17 favorites]

Are any/many/most communities solidly on one side or the other, or are areas mixed in terms of their preference? (I know that's an oversimplification, but I am curious to hear, if anyone wants to discuss it.)
posted by wenestvedt at 7:52 AM on September 20, 2021

Who interviewed you and why Capt. Renault? Man-on-the-street interview at a polling station, I'm guessing.
posted by sardonyx at 8:05 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Hopefully the ridiculous assholes voting PPC will split the vote on the right enough for that to happen.
I understand the sentiment, but I can't "hope" that there's more people who would vote PPC; the idea is just too depressing.
I wish we had the election reform we were promised; it won't change my vote, but in my riding my vote won't make a lick of difference.
posted by Laura in Canada at 8:11 AM on September 20, 2021 [12 favorites]

sardonyx: while I would not be shocked, SHOCKED, if Capt. Renault had actually been interviewed, that's a reference to the Monty Python election night bit with the Silly Party candidates.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:14 AM on September 20, 2021 [11 favorites]

I wonder if the best-case scenario is a weakened Liberal minority of 140-145 seats that costs Trudeau his post, with the NDP squeaking out 35 seats to give them a more powerful balance-of-power than pre-election. Doesn't seem unrealistic with current polling.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:17 AM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

Hopefully the ridiculous assholes voting PPC will split the vote on the right enough for that to happen.

Not that I want Conservatives to win, but significant vote-splitting by the PPC is not ideal either, as it would trigger the Cons moving even further belligerently right to woo back the mouth-breathers in a repeat of the PC/Reform/CCRAP/Conservative Party schism-reunification, and give encouragement and momentum to PPC-alligned goofs at other levels of government.

So, maybe just a little vote-splitting, as a treat, but I'm rooting for a PPC failure big enough that it can be considered a national repudiation of those shitheels.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 8:17 AM on September 20, 2021 [13 favorites]

Does anyone know how reliable the 338 Canada polling is? They have riding-specific polling and predictions, which I am very interested in. But it doesn't look like they actually poll people?

They appear to be a poll aggregator like 538 in the US, not a pollster.

Poll aggregators input all the polls, adjust for the bias of the pollsters and do a bunch of other meow meow statistics meow, and then simulate an election riding by riding. Then they simulate another election, and another, and another, until they've done several hundred or thousand simulated elections.

Their 148+/-40 for the Liberals means that in the central 90 or 95% (too lazy to look again) of their simulations, the Liberals got somewhere between 108 and 188 seats with an average of 148.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:19 AM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

As an Albertan, tomorrow can't come soon enough. There is no doubt in my mind that our premier Jason Kenney delayed introducing measures to deal with our Covid crisis in an effort to not screw up the chances of the federal conservatives. We need military assistance, but nothing is going to happen on that front until the federal election is settled. I can hardly care who wins, at this point.

Here in Edmonton we have a lot of NDP support. More than normal because of Kenney's fuck-ups. My riding will probably stay conservative. I haven't gone out to vote yet, but will check 338 before I do, just in case it seems useful to vote strategically for the liberals instead of the NDP.
posted by kitcat at 8:20 AM on September 20, 2021 [12 favorites]

For the first time in my 20 odd years of voting, I briefly considered skipping this federal election. After my Conservative candidate self-destructed (and keeps self-destructing) my riding (Beaches-East York) seems to be going Liberal again. I will drag myself out to vote NDP not because I think they have a chance, but because the candidate seems to be a good person.

The fact that, on a Federal scale, the election is somewhat close because O'Toole managed to look not that scary for a few weeks is terror inducing.

This whole election seems unnecessary and vainglorious.
posted by Dalekdad at 8:22 AM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

“…I wonder if the best-case scenario is a weakened Liberal minority of 140-145 seats that costs Trudeau his post…”

Wildly premature to say, until about eleven tonight or so, but Prime Minister Freeland doesn’t sound too bad. Unfortunately for her (and maybe us), I think Mark Carney’s timing couldn’t be better.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:25 AM on September 20, 2021

Possible NDP win in my Edmonton riding. Sure hope that Liberal vote collapses.
posted by No Robots at 8:27 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

The secret playbook behind Justin Trudeau’s success.
posted by No Robots at 8:29 AM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

My riding is a toss-up between NDP and CPC. I'm not too hopeful, but at least at 730 this morning there were lots of people in line who, from appearances and stereotypes, would probably not be voting for CPC. So that's alright. I have hopes that Kenney's stink turns enough people against him to count.

In a different riding, one of my colleagues is running. He is a very soft-spoken and kind man. He likes to sing, feed hungry people, and rides bikes to work year-round. Imagine my surprise when I found out he's running for the PPC! With a proud platform of anti-choice, anti-vax, anti-mask nonsense!
Luckily, he's running in a riding where he'd be lucky to get 5% of the vote. Unluckily, that means he'll be back to work and I'll have to find a way to be civil.
posted by Acari at 8:31 AM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

Huzzah the NDP, and a free whisky drink to any feller who casts his vote for Jagmeet Singh!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 8:32 AM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

So, maybe just a little vote-splitting, as a treat, but I'm rooting for a PPC failure big enough that it can be considered a national repudiation of those shitheels.

The problem is low expectations. Everybody knows they won't win any seats. They'll get somewhere between 4-7% of the vote, which realistically *is* a national repudiation, they won't even have gotten a third of the unvaccinated population to vote for them, but there's probably no realistic PPC result low enough to not make people think the Tories would have won (or won bigger) without them around, so they'll continue to get free advertising in the media spotlight.

Hard to know what the best long-term situation would be. If the Tories start to feel the bite of vote-splitting again after an 18-year hiatus you do wonder if proportional representation would start to look better to them. Ehh, who am I kidding, they'll just fearmonger about it for 60 years, it's worked for the guys in red.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:39 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

If Trudeau does not get a plurailty, he's likely gone. I would expect him to resign within a few months in that case. O'Toole, very likely as well, though he may be forced out by a leadership convention vote. If Singh is not able to capitalize on the Liberal weaknesses, I've heard rumbles that he will be asked to step aside in the next couple of years as well.

I think all the leaders are all on thin ice. O'Toole is probably in the worst place of all of them though, The hard-core seems really unhappy with him.
posted by bonehead at 8:39 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Wildly premature to say, until about eleven tonight or so, but Prime Minister Freeland doesn’t sound too bad. Unfortunately for her (and maybe us), I think Mark Carney’s timing couldn’t be better.
posted by Capt. Renault

Oh yeah, he definitely set himself up amazingly well by staying out of this stupid election... you know, while I have also been a bit bummed about the idea of another Extremely White Guy running the country, I have to say at least at least his position and activity on the most important issue of the day is pretty reassuring.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:44 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Rejected thread titles:

"Not necessarily an election thread, but an election thread if necessary."

"We were somewhere around Gatineau at the end of an election when the drugs began to take hold."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:46 AM on September 20, 2021 [48 favorites]

wenestvedt: Are any/many/most communities solidly on one side or the other, or are areas mixed in terms of their preference?

Since it's a 5 or 6 sided election it's a little more complicated, but the basic pattern that you see in the US does hold to some degree here: Urban ridings vote for more liberal/progressive candidates, rural ridings vote for more conservative candidates, and the suburbs swing.

You can see some of the complications on this map of the last election. Conservatives are the right-wing blue party, and they swept the urban ridings of Alberta and Saskatchewan with one exception. The NDP, out to the left of the Liberals, captured a few large rural ridings. And the Bloc, of course, throws wrenches into every simple schema in Quebec.

So I guess it's mostly Vancouver and Toronto that cleanly follow the simple urban/suburban/rural split.
posted by clawsoon at 8:47 AM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

I live in a Liberal safe riding -- if you strain yourself, you can see the trees surrounding Trudeau's residence on the grounds of Rideau Hall from here -- so my vote is pointless, but nonetheless, I will walk the mile to my polling place (which was in my building pre-covid, so this is quite a change!) and vote.
posted by jacquilynne at 8:47 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

"Not necessarily an election thread, but an election thread if necessary."

Wish I would've thought of that one - that's perfect.
posted by clawsoon at 8:52 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

I voted in the advance polls, and since I live in Edmonton Strathcona, the NDP vote was an obvious choice, even though I have found Heather McPherson a bit underwhelming as a representative. I am really hopeful for Blake Desjarlais in Greisbach - it was heartbreaking when the Liberal sweep in 2015 and resulting vote splitting handing what looked a victory for the amazing Janis Irwin to Kerry Diotte (Diotte is one of the worst examples of Conservative MPs and didn't even live in the riding). I have decided that I'm not really going to let myself get emotionally invested in any other results - just Strathcona and Greisbach. Everything else can land whereever it does.
posted by Kurichina at 8:53 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Just came in to say I love the word "riding" as an alternative to district / electorate / seat etc. I know it has nothing to do with size of the area or riding around on horses, but I like to imagine it does. Also lends itself to "Candidate X took a hiding in the riding" phrasing.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 8:54 AM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

So I guess it's mostly Vancouver and Toronto that cleanly follow the simple urban/suburban/rural split.

Just to add to that, there are some massive (geographically speaking) ridings in places like northern Ontario.

For example, the riding of Timmins-James Bay covers a fair bit of real estate to say the least. It's been solidly NDP for quite some time. Charlie Angus, the MP who has held that seat through several elections, was recently interviewed by Damian Abraham on his Turned Out a Punk podcast. All of which is to say "Not quite the MP you might instinctively think would represent such a rural riding."

Owing to high levels of union membership in some of these ridings (a legacy of mining and forestry/pulp and paper industry activity), they don't necessarily map cleanly on to the "rural is more conservative" assumption.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:01 AM on September 20, 2021 [11 favorites]

Conservatives are the right-wing blue party, and they swept the urban ridings of Alberta and Saskatchewan with one exception.

With the wrinkle this time that Maxime Bernier's ethnonationalists are actually in competition for some of the more whack-a-doodle voters. We could see some vote-splitting on the right this time too. That could be a factor in some Alberta and Saskatchewan semi-urban ridings.
posted by bonehead at 9:01 AM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

This election is depressing even by Canadian standards. It should never have been called.

Biggest lie told by multiple leaders: "This is the most important election of our lifetimes."

In my lifetime I can count at least 5 elections that were much more important than this one, and only 2 or 3 that might've been as unimportant. And I'm younger than Trudeau.

That's how I'm feeling before the votes are counted, anyway.
posted by clawsoon at 9:06 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

One thing I think is very interesting is that all morning, CBC has had a composite picture on the front page of their news site with Trudeau, O'Toole, Singh, Blanchet and Paul. And now at noon Eastern, they've gone to a six picture composite and added Bernier. I'd love to know what kind of complaints resulted in that change.
posted by jacquilynne at 9:09 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

From the outside, It does look like Trudeau misjudged calling the election. I realise the most likely outcome is that he's returned as PM of a minority government but wasting people's time with an unnecessary election is damaging (albeit more to the individual than the party).
posted by plonkee at 9:13 AM on September 20, 2021

Has anyone seen a figure of what estimated % of the vote has already come in via early / mail voting?
posted by saturday_morning at 9:17 AM on September 20, 2021

The indigenous vote tends not to be CPC either (to put it mildly). That's a fair factor in northern Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and in all of the north of 60 ridings.
posted by bonehead at 9:18 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

I'd love to know what kind of complaints resulted in that change.

Going by the comments on the CBC articles, maybe they were just trying to cut down on the complaints by PPC supporters that everyone is ignoring them? (I kid -- O'Toole could win and shut down the CBC, and they'd still be whining that it's biased against them.)
posted by quizzical at 9:19 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

I've had fun with lawn signs again. With a door cam this year, I got to watch several people a day stop, do double takes, take photos, and read the fine print. Lots of fun. Made people smile, and think.
posted by ecco at 9:20 AM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

wenestvedt: Are any/many/most communities solidly on one side or the other, or are areas mixed in terms of their preference?

As others have pointed out, the province of Alberta tends to vote monolithically in the conservative direction. There are exceptions to this direction (notably the Edmonton ridings) but it's a pronounced leaning over time. I see exactly three campaign signs in my (rural Alberta) area: CPC (incumbent conservative), PPC (right-of-conservative, leading the Freedom/anti-vax/white supremacist mob), and Maverick (right-of-conservative Western separatist party). I have not seen a single Liberal, NDP, or Green campaign sign. When a few of us met in a park a couple of weeks ago, to meet the NDP candidate, a truckload of assholes drove by and someone shouted "Communists!"

In the short term, the vote-splitting on the right might be good. The longer trend is not good.
posted by elkevelvet at 9:21 AM on September 20, 2021 [11 favorites]

Has anyone seen a figure of what estimated % of the vote has already come in via early / mail voting?

Apparently advance polling set a record, and:

Slightly more than 1.2 million Canadians requested special voting kits, which can be mailed.

That was from September 13, after the deadline to request them had passed. As for the final tally of how many were sent back, not sure at this point. Apparently it may take a few days to count all of the mail-in ballots that were mailed back in.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:22 AM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Happily I am comfortable with my local vote (Bardish Chagger in Waterloo) and don't need to think too hard about strategic votes. The PPC has a surprising amount of signage around here, including in some area neighborhoods I would have otherwise thought were too racially diverse (Asians, East Asians) to otherwise attract that nonsense.

I tell myself that worst case, O'Toole will get a weak minority, reveal that the Emperor has no clothes and that enough canadians feel that dogwhistle racism and subservience to the western oil patch are outmoded, and pick it up again in the next election (yes probably with the libs, sigh) ...but then I remember I used to think the same thing about Stephen Fucking Harper and we gave that helmet haired asshole a majority eventually.

(sorry. Right Honorable asshole.)
posted by hearthpig at 9:22 AM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

It would be funny if Trudeau turns out to have done a Theresa May and lost the majority.

Re: the word "Riding": I recently learned that this originates from old norse/old english "thirding" (þriðing) which refers to an area divided into three. In England this only remains in the "East Riding of Yorkshire", a somewhat old fashioned term for the Humberside region (Yorkshire was split in three historically into East, West & North).

Fun to think that the language of the first Europeans to make it to the new world (cf. Leif Erikson) is still in common use on that same continent over a thousand years later.
posted by Acey at 9:26 AM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

Trudeau cannot lose something he never held

He stands to lose his position as leader of the party, and stands to lose minority gov't
posted by elkevelvet at 9:28 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Oh right, my bad. That's even worse.
posted by Acey at 9:31 AM on September 20, 2021

PSA: ecco's lawn sign is well worth checking out if you haven't.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:31 AM on September 20, 2021

ecco, do tell us the story behind your brilliant sign! Does your candidate appreciate it?
posted by kitcat at 9:36 AM on September 20, 2021

I voted by mail (NDP, in a riding that the non-entity Liberal incumbent will probably win) for the first time this year, and given the reports I'm reading about long lines at polling stations already I'm glad I did. It does look like another Liberal minority is probably in the works, which makes me wonder what they saw in the polling which compelled them to go for it. A few weeks ago it looked like the hostility and/or exhaustion people have for Trudeau might have been enough to drive a CPC win but now I'm not so sure, especially in the wake of Moe and Kenney having to publicly rein in their whole "death cult" approach to managing the pandemic a few days before the election in an attempt to save their health care systems from total collapse*. As someone I saw on Twitter put it, Canadians generally hate it when they get a taste of uncut American-style conservatism, but we also have short memories, as all electorates do.

On Saturday, an anti-mask/vax protest wound its way along College Ave. past the library I was working at; it appeared to be doubling as an unofficial PPC rally, and it was discomfiting to see that many signs supporting them alongside all the "COMMUNISM IS THE NEXT VARIANT" nonsense. While splitting the vote on the right could superficially be politically beneficial, as others have pointed out it will certainly result in the CPC trying their best to get into bed with that crowd, as opposed to just playing footsie. A lot of CPC politicians and supporters almost certainly already hold the PPC's attitudes and beliefs (never forget that Bernier almost won the 2017 leadership race) but would prefer to stay on the winning team, or at least a team which has a shot at winning. If it starts looking to enough of them like switching to the PPC is potentially the winning play, whelp.

* a friend of mine told me some of his rural Ontario relatives were talking on Facebook about moving to Alberta because it was the only "free" province, but after Kenney's announcement they switched to talking about having to move to the U.S., lol
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:36 AM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

Other much-improved signs.

(Though as some replies noted, it's off-brand for the NDP ones.)
posted by quizzical at 9:37 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

I know this election wasn't necessary, and of course Trudeau called it hoping to capitalize on the opposing parties' leadership weaknesses (and so he could do what he wants when it comes to managing COVID-19 responses without having to constantly barter), but I'm just so sick and tired of the "unnecessary pandemic election" sloganeering from O'Toole, who can't answer a questions without throwing that phrase around. Enough is enough.*

It was a minority parliament. There were only going to be two realistic outcomes--the government would fall on a no-confidence vote, triggering an election, or the ruling party would call an election when it seemed most advantageous. I'm actually happier (I think) that it was the second option and not the first one, because who knows what kind of disaster would have had to happen for a non-confidence vote to occur.

At least this way, the decks will be cleared. Either one party will come out with a mandate or all the parties will get a clear signal that Canadians still expect co-operation in the House and some consensus to deal with this COVID-19 situation.


*It's not that I'm trying to be a dictator and tell people what to say and think. It's just that I've listened to enough O'Toole press conferences that I don't enjoy hearing other people repeat his talking points.
posted by sardonyx at 9:39 AM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

including in some area neighborhoods I would have otherwise thought were too racially diverse (Asians, East Asians) to otherwise attract that nonsense.

My impression is that there isn't much of an "ethnic vote" in Canada. Many of the suburban ridings that have swung between Liberal and Conservative in the past few elections are heavily populated with recent immigrant visible minorities. Same thing with ridings that Doug Ford won. Heck, my Facebook friend who is a PPC candidate has an Iranian background.
posted by clawsoon at 9:51 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

but the basic pattern that you see in the US does hold to some degree here

Yeah, rural Conservative voters punching themselves in the head because urban Liberals said they shouldn't, while urban Liberals act all smug about it.
posted by klanawa at 9:54 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Yesterday I had Jazz FM on, and during every single commercial break there was a CPC ad which didn't make any case for voting for them beyond the "unnecessary election" stuff. That was basically their entire platform this time around...well, that and buck-a-beer 50% off at Swiss Chalet.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:54 AM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

significant vote-splitting by the PPC is not ideal either

It's horrifying. This election has normalized a nakedly white supremacist, openly transphobic party.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:55 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

Does anyone know how reliable the 338 Canada polling is? They have riding-specific polling and predictions, which I am very interested in. But it doesn't look like they actually poll people?

There is no riding-specific polling in Canada, so their numbers are based past results, wider trends, and good old making shit up.
posted by rodlymight at 9:57 AM on September 20, 2021 [11 favorites]

The rise of the PPC is one of the more frightening stories of this election, especially seeing media wanting to further platform them for the drama. They seem unconcerned about the ethical considerations of platforming fascists.
posted by Kurichina at 9:58 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

I'm willing to bet on this...

The PPC will get more than 10 per cent of the vote in at least one of these four ridings: Sarnia-Lambton, London-Fanshawe, London North Centre, and London West.

Having grown up in these environs, I can assure you that a speedball of racism and transphobia is something voters there will gladly tie off and find a vein for.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:58 AM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

Like to see a cartoon of Trudeau placing a football labelled "election reform" ....
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:59 AM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

I'm not happy there is an election during this COVID-19 surge (and believe me, it's no joke in Alberta especially). As far as "unnecessary" I'm thinking there may have been better scenarios in calling an election in a year or more.. The thing is:
- personally, I never would have predicted the way this pandemic has played out. If you told me we'd be facing this surge in infections, and that we had widely available vaccines, and there are many 1000s of people marching in our streets in cities across Canada protesting the very reality of the pandemic, I'd be shocked (from a year ago). Maybe this was worth the risk to get a majority gov't? I mean, I can't say unequivocally that this is a waste of time, just as I can't go in a time machine and revisit September 2020 and say "hey, we'll be right back in this position a year from now."
- imagine putting the Cons in the minority position. I would bet money their pandemic response would have been less effective, they would have catered to the whacko provinces to an even greater extent (O'Toole is on the record praising Alberta's premier, Jason Kenney, for his gov't's handling of the pandemic, let that sit with you a while), plus any number of other crap things you want to add to the list. AND the Cons would totally rationalize a jump election call on precisely the same terms as Trudeau's Libs calculated their own call: opportunism
- if the Libs are the softer, kinder mask of neo-liberalism in Canada, the Cons are the softer, kinder mask of turning the clock back on women's reproduction rights; and basically the whole slew of PPC bullshit. They just don't say those parts as loudly, so they can actually win elections. The Libs might actually ENACT some sane policies so they can continue winning elections.

If we all want off this ride, and see good governance and progressive policies in this country, tell me: what should we do? I voted for an NDP candidate in a riding where people won't even promote their NDP support with a lawn sign or bumper sticker, the candidate is a 20-something and it's hard to tell they'll be any different than the many other one-time lost cause candidates in this part of the country. I've pissed in the wind and enjoyed the results more. The PPC phenomenon in Ontario is totally A Thing, but the population just hides it a little better than here in Alberta. Rant ended.
posted by elkevelvet at 10:00 AM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

The rise of the PPC does put an interesting twist on the electoral reform debate. Do we want a party like that permanently in Parliament, sometimes holding the balance of power?
posted by clawsoon at 10:01 AM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Do we want a party like that permanently in Parliament, sometimes holding the balance of power?

No. They belong, midair, in the Piazzale Loreto.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:03 AM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

London-Fanshawe

What a riding. The PC candidate for London-Fanshawe recently went on record stating that conservative voices are being silenced in first-grade classrooms not by teachers but by fellow students.

The PPC candidate, meanwhile, said on Twitter that Trudeau should get the Mussolini treatment and, after being chastised, posted a deeply sarcastic reply. He's also one of those people who compare proof-of-vaccine requirements to Nazi Germany.
posted by synecdoche at 10:08 AM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

I voted in the advanced poll for my local NDP canadiate. He's also a city councillor and done a great job there, so it was an easy decision for me. In all likelihood our riding will stay red, as it has been a liberal stronghold for almost 20 years (except for the 2015 election when we are briefly blue). I'd be ok with our current MP (who was also the last Speaker of the House) returning this election. I think overall he's done a fair job and is someone I could support in terms of political views. I just wanted something different in terms of action on issues that are important to me (climate change, health care, etc) so I voted orange this time around.
posted by snowysoul at 10:09 AM on September 20, 2021

Thank you for the nods about the lawn sign.

It must have been 7 years ago when Arif dropped by looking for signatures to become the candidate, and we discussed climate change then, and he seems like a great guy but the party caters too much to the oil lobby.

The local all candidates debate about the environment, gives insight into the capabilities of each candidate.

The Green Party candidate came to the door Sunday evening. She glanced at the sign, and grinned a bit when told to take a second look.

I dropped off a sign in front of Arif's campaign office last election, so some volunteers saw it then.


This year one elderly gentleman asked who the picture was of. Mrs. ecco indicated Kurt Cobain, of Nirvana. He nodded assured his guesses were right.

I've seen parents point it out to their kids, maybe explain who Kurt is.


And just as last election, one sign was stolen. But I made a few copies, so it was back out the next day.


As for what changes could be made with a visionary party, well France has banned advertising of some ICE vehicles, which back in 2016 seemed reasonable to me.
posted by ecco at 10:11 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

I admit, the possibility of the PPC hitting 10% of the vote but winning zero seats is indeed making me warm up slightly to FPTP. It is helpful to have a mechanism in place to keep those dipshits away from the levers of power. I just wish that progressive voters in conservative strongholds had some way for their votes to matter.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 10:12 AM on September 20, 2021

As an Albertan, tomorrow can't come soon enough. There is no doubt in my mind that our premier Jason Kenney delayed introducing measures to deal with our Covid crisis in an effort to not screw up the chances of the federal conservatives

If there’s any consolation in this, it’s that from what I’m hearing Kenney’s move to reimpose restrictions last week has lead to deep anger in the CPC towards him, along with fracturing the UCP. It’s not very public yet, but I think in a very short time we will be seeing a caucus revolt and a demand for a leadership review.
posted by nubs at 10:13 AM on September 20, 2021

On the Kenney front, yesterday there was an amusing live-tweet of a meeting of disgruntled UCP riding executives and MLAs.
posted by No Robots at 10:17 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

”It does look like another Liberal minority is probably in the works, which makes me wonder what they saw in the polling which compelled them to go for it.“

My guess is that they were hoping to use the hostility to produce a Trudeau-standing-tough Prime Ministerial moment, only, well, he’s not his old man.
posted by Capt. Renault at 10:19 AM on September 20, 2021

I've seen PPC activity in Carleton, Pierre PoutinePoilievre's riding. People with homemade signage on cars and houses (including one farmer who is infamous regionally for his obscene anti-Trudeau signage he covers an entire side of a barn with).

I'm wondering if the lack of in-person pressing of flesh is going to make a difference this time. Poilievre relies highly on door-to-door and small events to speak to his voters. This time around, he's obviously not doing that. How important that is will be interesting to see this time.
posted by bonehead at 10:19 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

> The PPC will get more than 10 per cent of the vote in at least one of these four ridings: Sarnia-Lambton, London-Fanshawe, London North Centre, and London West.

My parents and sister live in Sarnia, and there were *a lot* of PPC signs and makeshift "RESIST TYRANNY"-type displays in front yards there when I visited a couple of weeks ago.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:20 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

The question that has been on my mind is this: how long do we think the judge will wait after the election before dropping the Meng Wanzhou decision? Because let's face it, there is no way at all the judge was going to release the decision before the election, and then be accused of playing politics and swaying the election result.
posted by sardonyx at 10:20 AM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

I think saying FPTP is OK because it keeps the PPC from getting the balance of power is missing the forest for the trees. The reality is that the electorate overwhelmingly votes to the left of the CPC, let alone the PPC (last election, two thirds of voters voted to the left of the CPC). Real electoral reform would see parliament better represent voters. Right wing voters have not added up to more than 40% in a generation! We're not going to see the right be able to put in place their agenda with less than 40% support in a truly representative parliament.

I think we're too used to flipping back and forth between parties who win 30-40% of the vote that we don't see how badly the current system represents voters and how unlikely any kind of coalition that includes the far right would be. Voters would be very likely to punish any party other than the CPC that allied themselves with the far right — and everyone knows that, so it wouldn't happen.
posted by ssg at 10:24 AM on September 20, 2021 [24 favorites]

clawsoon sez

My impression is that there isn't much of an "ethnic vote" in Canada. Many of the suburban ridings that have swung between Liberal and Conservative in the past few elections are heavily populated with recent immigrant visible minorities. Same thing with ridings that Doug Ford won. Heck, my Facebook friend who is a PPC candidate has an Iranian background.

It's not so much that I expect there to be a monolithic ethnic vote, it's that I am surprised to see *any* alignment between, say, East Indians and a party who doesn't really bother to hide that they are not wild about Brown People.

I've heard one report that some PPC signs were put up on people's lawns without permission but stayed there because homeowners didn't know they were allowed to take them down. Unverified, and not sure where I heard it (prob random radio chatter on the way to work this a.m.)

I voted last Sunday in the advance polls so I don't know what it's like out there today. Hopefully people are maxing out on their right to vote, and not rationalizing their way out of it due to hatred of FPTP etc.

OH! ALSO! I saw some bullshit go by on facebook the other day about how Dominion voting machines are putting the fix in for the Libs. Reported that one at lightspeed. Unless of course it's the dominion voting machines inside the fingers of those handcounting the votes across the country by standard practice? It makes me unutterably sad that the cloud of falsity from the US has drifted across its northern border. People gonna people, I guess.
posted by hearthpig at 10:25 AM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

It does look like another Liberal minority is probably in the works, which makes me wonder what they saw in the polling which compelled them to go for it.

Same thing everyone else saw, Libs leading the Cons 5-7%, and they were as surprised as everyone else when it turned out that people's theoretical support is different from their actual support when you give them an election to be annoyed about...

I think saying FPTP is OK because it keeps the PPC from getting the balance of power is missing the forest for the trees. The reality is that the electorate overwhelmingly votes to the left of the CPC, let alone the PPC (last election, two thirds of voters voted to the left of the CPC). Real electoral reform would see parliament better represent voters. Right wing voters have not added up to more than 40% in a generation! We're not going to see the right be able to put in place their agenda with less than 40% support in a truly representative parliament.

The trouble with this is that letting dangerous people into parliament is dangerous even if they're not in government. Look what AfD has been able to accomplish culturally in Germany despite nobody being willing to let them join their coalitions.
posted by saturday_morning at 10:38 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

There's this idea that the PPC is getting press because the media thinks they're a fun story, which fundamentally misunderstands how Canadian media works. The Canadian media isn't the American media, which chases exciting stories for profit; the Canadian media are, for the most part, a bunch of gladhanding tits who are buddy-buddy with the political class and frequently want to transfer into politics outright. They don't like the PPC because the PPC are assholes, and not even the usual class of assholes who work in politics for a living but a far more loathsome degree of assholes who offend the Canadian media's fuddy-duddy sense of propriety.

They haven't started covering the PPC because it's a "sexy story." Remember, the PPC were excluded from the debates despite polling better than two parties (the Bloc and the Greens) who made it in. The PPC barely got coverage in the 2019 election, despite being more novel and "fun" at the time than they are now. They're covering the PPC because in a first-past-the-post system, not covering a party that's hovering around 10% nationally is journalistic malpractice.

The PPC are electorally relevant, regardless of whether we like that fact or not, and they are relevant not because of their white nationalism and transphobia (they were that last time, and they had about a fifth of the support they do now) but because they have become the voice of anti-vaxx Canadians, who are a small but sizeable minority in this country and increasingly recognizable as a problem we're all going to have to deal with.
posted by mightygodking at 10:41 AM on September 20, 2021 [22 favorites]

along with fracturing the UCP.

As soon as they put "United" in their name they should've known they were doomed to fracture.
posted by clawsoon at 10:43 AM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

I saw some bullshit go by on facebook the other day about how Dominion voting machines are putting the fix in for the Libs.

^ like we needed another example of Canadians taking a cue from their southern neighbours.. and they can't even be bothered to come up with novel bullshit! really, I'm embarrassed for all of us

I have no proof, and less doubt, that much of the right-wing agitation that has blossomed this year is coordinated and funded, and we know this is an international thing. The George Soros bogeyman just helps with the whole deflection and distraction.. get that bullshit out there, project a ton, and get a lot of people caught up in completely irrelevant discussions while groups methodically work to change the national discourse in country after country.
posted by elkevelvet at 10:43 AM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

Unless of course it's the dominion voting machines inside the fingers of those handcounting the votes across the country by standard practice?

Saints alive, that's why they put microchips in the vaccines!
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:44 AM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

makes me wonder what they saw in the polling which compelled them to go for it

Entirely my own projecting, but I figured they figured The Resistance's botched COVID responses would translate into a situation where Liberals wouldn't lose any votes and gain a chunk of protest votes against provincial Conservative governments. But that does not appear to be how it's playing out.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:47 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

My hopes -- which are vanishingly unlikely -- is a significantly weaker minority for the Liberals (because I am not foolish enough to hope for an NDP minority), the NDP with the balance of power, fewer CPC seats and a low turnout for PPC. The recent BQ surge is going to hurt Libs and NDP most, I think; I suspect that the Quebec city area will increase CPC representation.
posted by jeather at 10:56 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Incidentally I signed up to vote by on the Thursday before labour day, received it on Tuesday, mailed it that Thursday night (after 5 pm), and it switched to "completed ballot received" last Thursday.
posted by jeather at 10:57 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Look what AfD has been able to accomplish culturally in Germany despite nobody being willing to let them join their coalitions.

I know very little about German politics, but we're seeing the rise of the nationalist far right across Europe and North America. Is the fact that the AfD has seats in Germany driving that shift in any real sense or merely a symptom of what's already happening? I don't think we generally see causality running that way.
posted by ssg at 10:57 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

About the "ethnic vote" (which, for the record, does not include First Nations voters - that is a totally separate thing):

For a long time, the "ethnic vote" was mostly Liberal, because it was the Liberals who prioritized increased immigration and the newly arrived diverse communities were understandably grateful to the Liberal Party for letting them come to Canada. There's a reason that Toronto, for a long time, was considered a Liberal bastion (and it still mostly is!): the most diverse city in the world is going to be loyal to any party that made sure it became that way.

Stephen Harper - who, for all his myriad flaws and awfulness, is not a committed/active racist - worked tirelessly to build bridges in these immigrant communities, because he recognized that if the Conservatives could get past the racial gap there would be certain immigrant communities (specifically, the richer ones) that would prefer Tory policies, and this indeed worked - particularly so for certain communities like Han Chinese and Hindis who are used to being the dominant ethnic group in their original countries and can at least sort of sympathize with "old stock" white Canadians being annoyed with all the Johnny-come-lately ethnic groups demanding equal rights. Getting that portion of the immigrant vote was crucial for Harper's electoral victories.

The problem for the Tories is that once Harper was gone, there really wasn't anybody left in the party who was A) white and B) committed to continuing that platform of immigrant community outreach. At the same time, the Conservative party base has gotten more radically conservative, which does mean "somewhat more racist," so while their gains in immigrant communities haven't exactly disappeared, they've definitely plateaued or even receded somewhat. Some of that support has bled back to the Liberals - Trudeau's cabinets have been extremely diverse, which have helped the Liberals gain ground - but some of it has also gone to the NDP, which has been getting more diverse almost by default. (The NDP has very bad ground game and always has, except during the Jack Layton years, because... well, a rant about how the NDP is more of a jobs program for a certain class of leftist activist than a proper political party would take me significantly off-track.)

So now we're at the point where the "ethnic vote" really isn't that much of a thing any more. Which is probably good, all things considered.
posted by mightygodking at 11:01 AM on September 20, 2021 [21 favorites]

I voted during my lunch break and I was the only one there. This whole election has pissed me off. First, by one being called and then by having the candidate I was planning to vote for drop out less than a week before election day. So I had to vote for someone I didn't want.

In the end, it doesn't really matter because my riding leans solidly one way so my vote wasn't helping to keep another party from succeeding. I could've just stayed home, but I felt compelled to vote.
posted by quoththeraven at 11:02 AM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

"We were somewhere around Gatineau at the end of an election when the drugs began to take hold."

"OK, everybody take a Valium!"
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:03 AM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

I saw some bullshit go by on facebook the other day about how Dominion voting machines are putting the fix in for the Libs.

For the unaware, Canadians use pencils to mark ballots in the federal elections, which are counted by hand.
posted by cardboard at 11:04 AM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

from an email I just got from a friend:

I voted in the advance poll (Communist as usual which I view as snide irony) but yesterday realized that Justin has reached his expiry date. Even though I loathe Erin the Tool, I kind of hope he wins with an incredibly tiny minority forcing him to have to cut deals with the Bloc and Jagmeet, thus going against his base while facing a daily barrage from enraged Liberals across the aisle.

Basically, you wanted it, now you got it. Enjoy the heat.
posted by philip-random at 11:06 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

There is a large divide in First Nations, Metis and Inuit groups about whether or not they should vote in federal elections (I refuse to have an opinion on this as it is not up to me), so there's also a certain lower level of turnout just because a signficant proportion of indigenous people believe that they should not be voting at all. A recent article about this is here.

("Money and the ethnic vote" is a racist and antisemitic dogwhistle from a Quebec referendum.)
posted by jeather at 11:07 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

clawsoon: but the basic pattern that you see in the US does hold to some degree here

klanawa: Yeah, rural Conservative voters punching themselves in the head because urban Liberals said they shouldn't, while urban Liberals act all smug about it.

Depressingly accurate, at least here in my neck of the British Columbian woods.

ssg: I think saying FPTP is OK because it keeps the PPC from getting the balance of power is missing the forest for the trees.

I agree. I don't like the PPC and am saddened and horrified to see what kind of foothold they've got in the public imagination. But I am not willing to start endorsing FPTP as a means to keep them out of elected positions.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 11:08 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

philip-random, I like your friend. It would be hilarious if Singh cuts a deal with O'Toole and sticks it to Trudeau.
posted by No Robots at 11:09 AM on September 20, 2021

> They don't like the PPC because the PPC are assholes, and not even the usual class of assholes who work in politics for a living but a far more loathsome degree of assholes who offend the Canadian media's fuddy-duddy sense of propriety.

Well, unless you're Matt Gurney, in which case the rise of the PPC is a fun little ray of sunshine on an otherwise cloudy day.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:18 AM on September 20, 2021

Trudeau is such an asshole (for calling this election). Infuriating, really.

Is anyone else in the Parkdale-High Park riding in Toronto? I have a bit of a concern that probably is silly.

I've lived in the same building for 16 years. I've almost always voted 3 blocks from my place, at a church on Roncesvalles.

This election, I got my voter card and it tells me to vote down on the Lakeshore, about a 30 minute walk away (as opposed to 4 minutes). I called to ask why and they said "We're not using that church -- too small -- Covid." Fine.

I opted to vote by mail instead of making the trek.

But I was just out walking on Roncesvalles and the church is in fact being used. There were tons of people lined up to vote and lots of Vote Here signs. WTF?

Don't know whether my building got pushed to another riding (far as I know I'm the last building before the riding switch, right beside the train tracks, or if they sent a bunch of people to the wrong voting place or if they divided the voting locations (though if it's that, why have me walk past one to one MUCH further away?).
posted by dobbs at 11:26 AM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

the Canadian media are, for the most part, a bunch of gladhanding tits who are buddy-buddy with the political class and frequently want to transfer into politics outright

I mean aside from Pamela Wallin, Mike Duffy, Ben Chin, Peter Kent, Avi Lewis, Marci Ien, and Chrystia Freeland, there aren't that many...

*checks list*

Oh. Gonna be here a while.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:28 AM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

Edmonton centre is my riding: we did an advance poll last weekend. I was torn between a strategic vote or a vote for who I really wanted - I only made up my mind when the ballot was in front of me to vote for for a party that supports proportional representation, because fuck the liberals for dropping the ball on that one.
posted by piyushnz at 11:31 AM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

Maybe you could say that Canada has more of an anti-ethnic vote than it has an ethnic vote.
posted by clawsoon at 11:39 AM on September 20, 2021

*checks list*

Luckily, Hamilton’s local media guy turned useless mayor turned useless MP Bob Bratina isn’t running for the Grits again, as he’s opposed to the feds giving us tons of free money for light transit.

If you want a guy to extemporaneously talk about the ‘58 Ti-Cats, Bob Bratina’s your guy. Anything else — useless.
posted by Capt. Renault at 11:44 AM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

Yesterday I had Jazz FM on, and during every single commercial break there was a CPC ad which didn't make any case for voting for them beyond the "unnecessary election" stuff. That was basically their entire platform this time around...well, that and buck-a-beer 50% off at Swiss Chalet.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:54 on September 20 [3 favorites −] Favorite added! [!]

Yeah, my wife listens to Jazz FM and I heard those ads so many times. I think the only ads I've heard on the radio or seen online have been for the CPC. I don't know if it's because they're doing more advertising in general or just buying more in my demographic but there's a noticeable difference in the amount of CPCs ads I've been exposed to this election versus everyone else. The other explanation is that I'm only noticing the CPC ads.

I ended up going to my polling station a bit before it opened this morning and there was a really long line, like I was there for over half an hour. Normally I'll come home after dropping my kids at school, have breakfast, and then go vote and I never have to wait more than 5 minutes. I guess some combination of me going when it opened and there being significantly fewer polling stations this time around due to Covid resulted in the line.

With the way things are going it looks like whoever wants to run the country will need the NDP and/or Bloc to vote with them. I would hope that the NDP can parlay that into making ranked ballots or some other form of electoral reform the first order of business to ensure their support but that's probably a bigger price than either the Liberals or Conservatives would want to pay.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:45 AM on September 20, 2021

> If you told me we'd be facing this surge in infections, and that we had widely available vaccines, and there are many 1000s of people marching in our streets in cities across Canada protesting the very reality of the pandemic, I'd be shocked (from a year ago).

In my darker moments I fear that this pandemic has been an inflection point in terms of society's collective ability to process information, accurately identify threats and work together towards solutions. There is no shared reality any more, which will make it basically impossible to even meaningfully address the issue of climate change, let alone actually take substantive action towards mitigating its effects. Prove me wrong, society.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:47 AM on September 20, 2021 [12 favorites]

Anything else — useless.

Speaking of which: Seamus "I USED TO BE ON THE TEEVEE!" O'Regan.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:47 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Hi dobbs,

Re: Trudeau calling an election during Covid, I count 9 major elections in 2020 and 2021; New Brunswick general election, Nova Scotia municipal elections, British Columbia general election, Saskatchewan general election, Saskatchewan municipal elections, Newfoundland and Labrador general election, Yukon general election, New Brunswick municipal elections, 2021 Nova Scotia general election. And what looks like 50 or so lesser elections.

So Trudeau isn't out of line with what provinces have been doing for the last two years.

I'm another Parkdale-High Park resident. I'm not a fan of the election location changes. But you can direct your anger towards the school boards, "The Toronto Catholic District School Board (TCDSB), where around 100 locations were being considered, made the decision not to allow polling stations at its schools.

I always used to vote 200 meters away at the local school gym (large room). For advanced polling I had to walk 25 minutes to Queen and Cowan. A local community center with a room a fifth as large as a gym. So less airflow, and less distancing. Oh well, not the fault of elections Canada.

The advanced election spot though is not the same as voting day, which happens to be St VdP. Further than usual, but not as far as the early spot.
posted by ecco at 11:51 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Huzzah the NDP, and a free whisky drink to any feller who casts his vote for Jagmeet Singh!
posted by TheWhiteSkull

Anything to forget I live in Burnaby South

I am surprised to see *any* alignment between, say, East Indians and a party who doesn't really bother to hide that they are not wild about Brown People.

Unlike it's proponents, ressentiment itself doesn't discriminate. Also, they don't mean us/I'm not like other girls!
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 11:52 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

so here's a photo I took last week on a trip to the PNW, eh

Rental car was set to CBC for some reason so it was fun listening in to the aliens who were so close yet so far away. . .
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:52 AM on September 20, 2021

If Trudeau loses, he's going to be out, but I'm curious what happens if he wins but with fewer seats (I think this is likely). I wouldn't be surprised if both Singh (who is . . . fine but not anything exciting) and O'Toole are gone before the next election.

And re: there have been other elections, calling an election because you are about 4 years in (or if you lose a confidence vote etc) is very different from calling an election during an airborne pandemic less than 2 years after you won a minority goverment because you think you can get more seats.
posted by jeather at 11:57 AM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

According to the worldometer COVID counting, the USA has had 128727 per million population cases and 2076 per million deaths. Canada has had 41247 per million population cases and 718 per million deaths. Color me envious.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:02 PM on September 20, 2021

I'm curious what happens if he wins but with fewer seats (I think this is likely)

I think this outcome also most likely, but you never know.

The Liberals tend to be less ready to bring out the knives on their leaders, and I think Trudeau is still decently popular within the party. I think he has a little wiggle room, but not a huge amount. Returning to government would probably push his future out a couple of years. I would not be surprised by a walk in the snow prior to the next election though.
posted by bonehead at 12:07 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

The problem for the Tories is that once Harper was gone, there really wasn't anybody left in the party who was A) white and B) committed to continuing that platform of immigrant community outreach.

Wasn't Jason Kenney Harper's point man on gladhanding the immigrant communities? I wonder if he will try to get back to the National scene. (I doubt he succeeds since his covid policies have been a huge albatross for O'Toole)
posted by Rumple at 12:09 PM on September 20, 2021

I just got back from voting. I was in and out in less than 15 minutes, which is a little slower than past federal elections because there was an extra step or two for COVID screening. I expect my riding, Scarborough North, is going to return the incumbent, Shaun Chen, because of name recognition alone.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 12:11 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

"As Canadian election thread as possible under the circumstances."
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 12:14 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

My sister and I emigrated from Canada eons ago, and for some reason we never knew we could vote. We can! We both missed out on this election but we are signing up for the future on the International Registry. And, we also both just spread the word in our local Canadian communities, and everyone seems weirdly excited to know this. So there, crazy anti-vax relative, I WILL be cancelling your vote out with mine.
posted by nanook at 12:15 PM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

ecco:

Also Calgary municipal election, on right now.


I don't get the anger towards calling an election, really. I'm happy every time I get to vote - municipal, provincial, federal, whatever. I don't think we should be having a referendum for every piece of legislation passed, but what's wrong with democratic consultation? Anyways, I always get a weird thrill from voting, I really do. (I also enjoy paying taxes, especially municipal taxes. Yeah, I'm a weird one)

Part of me wants the seat count to be exactly the same as before dissolution. Mostly because I'm more than a bit of a curmudgeon, and the knives will be out for everyone. More specifically, I spend most of my days deep in a current of way too-strong-to-be-rational Trudeau hatred. To be clear, I think he's deeply under qualified, has traded on his family name and good looks, has never accomplished anything of note outside of politics and is, not to put too fine a point on it, more than just bit of a douchebag.

But all my work colleagues get pig-biting mad when his name comes up, it's a bit much. So I fully expect tomorrow to be a litany of 'unnecessary election' and '600 million dollars' and so forth. To which I will happily say: if you hated the guy so much (and hated the Liberal party, maybe not as much, but still), aren't you ECSTATIC that you get a chance to vote him out? Your guy failed to make any ground, how is it the Trudeau government's fault ? Your guy tried their best to campaign as a Liberal (everyone gets money ! everyone gets a tax break ! the budget will balance itself !) even as he got the party leadership by pandering to the social conservative wing.

A-a-a-anyways, more seriously... even if the seat count turns out exactly the same as before, I believe the election to have been a tremendously valuable exercise that will have some real impacts. More than one party leader will likely be turfed: Annamie Paul certainly, and O'Toole very likely (though maybe not). The cracks in the Canadian conservative scene will widen: the PPC constituency will either be actively courted (in which case the CPC becomes unviable, in my opinion) or repudiated. If the PPC is entrenched, and vote splitting happens to the right of the CPC, the Liberal party will feel less pressure to campaign to the left, but govern from the centre-right. The CPC may end up shedding a lot of its rubbish, and try to remember what fiscal conservatism was all about. Part of me wanted to see the Liberals lose some ground, so that JT steps down, but I doubt its happening. Singh comes out a bit stronger, and hopefully the NDP can continue to grow support and participate meaningfully in passing legislation. Leaving aside the party politics, a reasonably strong consensus has emerged around climate policy, support for public health, and key social programs, most notably child care support. We may end up with a much more European style parliament -- with coalitions and power sharing, etc. I don't think that's a bad thing! A majority government has almost no checks or balances: it was a disaster during Harper, and not a great thing under Chretien or Trudeau.

All this clarity in under 30 days! We mark our ballots with pencils and we know the outcomes generally the night of (this time we might have to wait another day).

Let's do this again in a couple of years!
posted by bumpkin at 12:31 PM on September 20, 2021 [15 favorites]

The Liberals tend to be less ready to bring out the knives on their leaders

Errr.... what about the Chretien-Martin drama and the fallout that weakened that party for years...?
posted by bumpkin at 12:34 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

@dobbs - I'm in your riding. I advance-voted, but I think my wife had the same issue as you. Voting card led her to believe she had to go to one place, but then they sent her to St. Vincent. We should get together some time, because, man, anyone who digs MeFi is ok by me.
posted by SNACKeR at 12:38 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

^ anyone who calls this election a waste of time needs read no further.. MeFi and Canadian elections: bringing folks together in 2021
posted by elkevelvet at 1:17 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

In my darker moments I fear that this pandemic has been an inflection point in terms of society's collective ability to process information, accurately identify threats and work together towards solutions. There is no shared reality any more, which will make it basically impossible to even meaningfully address the issue of climate change, let alone actually take substantive action towards mitigating its effects. Prove me wrong, society.

Me too, it's really bumming me out about climate change which a more subtle issue.... until it won't be. And when it's too late, it'll take what, decades? centuries? to restore the planet to what it once was.

On the canadian election front, voted by mail, it won't matter though, I live in a LPC fortress, which I guess could be worse.

I still think FPTP must go, and not with preferential voting. The libs want that because they know it's the key to a semi-permanent majority for them since they don't really have an ideology other than "whatever center-ish position will get us elected" so they can be very fluid with their positions and cast a wide net.

Also, theoretically, the last party in power gets the first shot a trying to form a new government, so in the even of a thin CPC minority, the libs could try to form a coalition with the NDP and form a government.

There's also enough vote by mail this year that we probably won't know the result tonight since all those mail votes need to be validated against the votes at the poll station since you can also show up at the poll station and vote and it'll override the vote you mailed.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 1:17 PM on September 20, 2021

In a normal time, of course a minority government calling an election after not quite 2 years is entirely reasonable. However, we are in a pandemic; people vote in poorly ventilated school gyms, in person; Elections Canada employees are not required to be vaccinated and, historically, sit right next to each other all day (I don't know what they did this year, but they're certainly all in the same place and I can't imagine how they would count without being right next to each other); voters are (correctly) not required to be vaccinated, when incidental air space sharing can transmit delta; we're playing games with reusing pencils instead; apparently scrutineers are not required to be masked unless provincial law requires it.

Yes, of course the results will matter, but they would also matter in 6 months. And "re-elect us so we can do [list of good things]" just really threw the bullshit into stark relief.
posted by jeather at 1:26 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Can anybody summarize for me what it was that the NDP was stopping the Liberals from doing that they'd be able to do with a majority government?
posted by clawsoon at 1:33 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Can anybody summarize for me what it was that the NDP was stopping the Liberals from doing that they'd be able to do with a majority government?

Livin' large, baby, livin' large.
posted by No Robots at 1:35 PM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention, this was such a useless election. And it's counterproductive since it just increase people cynicism. People aren't dumb, they know why it was called, the libs saw an opportunity to get their majority and decided to call a election, pandemic be damned, "we're the libs this our our birthright".
posted by WaterAndPixels at 1:36 PM on September 20, 2021

Also, theoretically, the last party in power gets the first shot a trying to form a new government, so in the even of a thin CPC minority, the libs could try to form a coalition with the NDP and form a government.

In which case the CPC would scream bloody murder and would likely get a fair bit of support from Canadians, based on what we saw last time when they did the same thing. I don't know if a Lib-NDP coalition would be strong enough to withstand all the grandstanding about a "stolen" election and I'd guess we'd end up back at the polls in fairly short order. Unfortunately, both Harper and Trudeau have worked hard to convince Canadians that real coalitions don't work and aren't really legitimate, so we're kind of in a bad situation if it comes to that.
posted by ssg at 1:37 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

In a normal time, of course a minority government calling an election after not quite 2 years is entirely reasonable.

Is it reasonable though? Why should the leader of a party that controls less than half of the seats in Parliament be able to call an election whenever they please? Shouldn't the House be the ones to make that decision? Supposedly our PM is first among equals, not some kind of king.

More practically, if you think it should be possible to have stable minority governments or coalitions, then you can't allow the leader of a minority party to topple the whole house of cards whenever they please. Otherwise, they end up with disproportionate power, because they always have the threat of just calling an election in their back pocket if the smaller parties don't fall in line.

What we need is a GG with a little backbone (which is of course going to be awfully hard to come by as long as the PM appoints the GG).
posted by ssg at 1:44 PM on September 20, 2021

I voted at lunch today, and while there was a steady stream of people, there were no lineups. Most people I know voted at the advanced polls. I was surprised it was at my usual polling place at the local French Catholic school.

As far as the election call, the press kept yammering on for the last 8 months that an election was going to be called at any time, sources say an election will be called in the summer, Trudeau must call an election, all parties are preparing for a late summer election, etc etc... and the instant the election was called the message changed to "HOW DARE HE CALL AN ELECTION AT THIS TIME??!?!? What an opportunist!!"
posted by fimbulvetr at 1:46 PM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

Is it reasonable though?

I think so. They are the government, even though they are a minority one, so it is reasonable that they can ask the Governor General to dissolve their government without asking permission from opposition parties. Theoretically the Governor General can (and has -- the King-Byng Affair) refuse to dissolve government and ask someone else to form government instead of calling an election...
posted by fimbulvetr at 1:53 PM on September 20, 2021

Why should the leader of a party that controls less than half of the seats in Parliament be able to call an election whenever they please?

...because it's permitted under Canadian Parliamentary procedure?
posted by hearthpig at 1:53 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

I half think that BC became the swingiest of swingy regions because they were tired of the election being decided before BC poll were closed.
posted by clawsoon at 1:53 PM on September 20, 2021

Folks, PR isn't going to produce an NDP government. At best it would make coalition governments a permanent fixture. If we had it in the last election we might have had PM Scheer going into a pandemic, and in this one we might be looking at 30 seats for the antivax party. It's also not wildly compatible with the Westminster system of individual members representing geographic areas.

Preferential voting at least encourages parties to be as broadly acceptable to the electorate as possible. If the NDP could figure out how to be everyone's second choice, they'd be winning majorities and we wouldn't have to re-engineer how MPs work.
posted by figurant at 1:55 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

What we need is a GG with a little backbone

You want kings? This is how you get kings.

Or, as fimbulvtr mentioned, King-Byngs.

Speaking of that King, a seance might settle things?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:58 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

...because it's permitted under Canadian Parliamentary procedure?

The PM only has the power to ask the GG to dissolve Parliament. The GG is in no way required to do so. What the GG does is mostly driven by convention (and that convention has changed significantly in the last couple decades). This is something malleable, not some law written down somewhere. I think we'd be better off if that convention shifted.
posted by ssg at 2:03 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

In which case the CPC would scream bloody murder and would likely get a fair bit of support from Canadians, based on what we saw last time when they did the same thing

Everybody screamed bloody murder when they prorogued parliament to avoid a coalition against them, still happened.

They can scream, but it would still result in a majority of Canadians with a government in which the party they voted for is represented, not sure how they just don’t end up looking like sore losers. And I don’t think any lib/NDP voter will go “that unfair I’m voting CPC next election, they were cheated”.

In any case, I’m pretty sure the libs are allergic to sharing power so they might be idiot enough not to try it.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 2:04 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Yeah, as much as I would have liked the GG to say no to the occasional election call by the PM, their role is to be a rubber stamp and receive foreign dignitaries and stepping outside of that is probably not a good idea.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:05 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

Oh yeah, forgot to mention, this was such a useless election. And it's counterproductive since it just increase people cynicism. People aren't dumb, they know why it was called, the libs saw an opportunity to get their majority and decided to call a election, pandemic be damned, "we're the libs this our our birthright".

And if the CPC saw an opportunity to form the government, they would have toppled the Libs and forced an election. Was this one opportunism? Yes, but they are all pretty equal on that front from where I sit. And as fimbulvetr notes, the speculation about an election call has been going on since the year began - we were going to have a spring election, then a summer election, then a fall election.

What I would have done, as the Libs, is position this election clearly as a chance for voters to give them a mandate for continuing to manage the pandemic and the recovery; say that its a time that nobody anticipated back in 2019 and this is the chance to give their plan a clear endorsement. And you add in climate change on top of that, after the summer. Then at least you have an answer to what this election is about; instead, it feels like its been a limp & listless campaign from pretty much everyone (to be fair, I've been less engaged with this campaign than any other - provincial politics here in AB have been dominating my attention more than anything).

What I'm deeply disappointed about is how little First Nations issues came up during this campaign.
posted by nubs at 2:09 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

I mean, at the very least, they could have engineered a vote of non-confidence (or have the Government resign, and let the other parties fail to put anything functional together). Claiming that you're unable to work with the existing parliament without actually showing it in any way just smacks of lazy entitlement. Which I suppose is appropriate...
posted by quizzical at 2:09 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

I take your point but engineering a vote of non-confidence to force an election kind of feels like forcing an election with more steps. What percentage of pundits wouldn't be hammering that home right now? And would the opposition not be belabouring that point repeatedly?

I'd really like party politics to work differently, but mostly it fulfills my expectations of competitive sports. People and organizations look to leverage strengths and take advantage of weaknesses, and the voters cheer on their team. I just try to cheer for teams that aren't complete assholes and hope for the best.
posted by elkevelvet at 2:16 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

The Byng-King affair was a full blown constitutional crisis, and in no uncertain terms laid down the limit of the power of the Governor General to refuse to dissolve parliament in the future. That is to say, zero power. Anything else is fanfic at best.

I don't believe for a second that the election will have a public health impact. It's basically the same exposure as a grocery store. (Except far more likely that the workers are vaccinated). Not buying it for a second.

I think the Liberals gamed this one out: they thought they had at least a chance at a majority, and even if they failed that, they might have suspected that this would weaken the Conservative party. If that's what they thought, I don't think they were wrong.

As I commented, I think this will be an impactful election, even if no seat numbers change.
posted by bumpkin at 2:21 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

There's obviously some discretion for the GG. Suppose we end up in another minority government, with the CPC one short of a majority and the Libs far short. Since JT would still be the PM tomorrow morning, in that case, he could go to the GG and ask her to dissolve parliament and trigger another election. I would hope she'd say no and I think most would agree this would be a reasonable use of her powers. This would obviously be in line with Canadian parliamentary tradition. So we're discussing just how far the GG's powers go, not whether she has them at all.
posted by ssg at 2:43 PM on September 20, 2021

FWIW, the Cons are publicly managing expectations for tonight.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:44 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

I take your point but engineering a vote of non-confidence to force an election kind of feels like forcing an election with more steps.

Oh, we're definitely agreed on that, and I was probably being a bit facetious. And maybe hoping that consciously acting out the more pointless procedures would help reinforce more meaningful ones, in terms of needing parliament's support, rather than just letting power continue to accrue to the PMO.

(Also, CBC's trotting out Alison Redford? Is this new?)
posted by quizzical at 2:52 PM on September 20, 2021

I don't think that's correct, ssg.

In the case you've proposed, the GG would have the duty to ask which parties are ready form a government and potentially survive an immediate confidence vote. It is my understanding that in this case, if JT were unwilling to attempt forming a government (obv. only possible with an agreement in place with another party), the CPC would be offered the chance. At the end of the day, however, it is entirely up to the parties, the GG does not really have discretion in the matter. I'm not a constitutional scholar or historian, however I was always taught that the Byng-King affair was what firmly broke us away from Britain's orbit and influence. From that moment on the Crown and its representative where entirely symbolic. No discretion. This recently came to a head when Harper prorogued Parliament for two months in 2008 to avoid defeat -- it was a pretty brazen move, and a lot of people excitedly wondered whether the GG would refuse it. Nope, not a chance.

Given that this is Metafilter, however, I expect someone to pipe in who is in fact a constitutional expert and will set us all correct.
posted by bumpkin at 2:55 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

That's kind of my point. There are all kinds of edge cases and murky areas, because this is all convention and these issues don't come up that often. But the GG could have denied Harper's request back in 2008 (and many would argue that she should have). I think you'll find constitutional experts on both sides of that one, with much written about the incident. So some people are going to end up on the side of no discretion and some will say the GG does have some discretion.

In that context, it's pretty reasonable to say that maybe the way things work isn't great and could be better.
posted by ssg at 3:20 PM on September 20, 2021

Can I just say this is the first time I’ve been on television?

No, I’m sorry — there isn’t time.

This has been an unusual election for me because as if to highlight the steady passage of years, one of the candidates in my riding is the son of some friends of mine. Sure, he’s thirty with a master’s degree but I mostly recall him in a Jolly Jumper in a doorway. Weird.

I briefly pondered contacting media outlets with the scandalous news that the first time I met one of the candidates, he was unconscious on a table with a bottle in his hand. Of course, he was three weeks old at the time and his parents had plunked his car seat down on the restaurant table where we were meeting for brunch.

“I recall he was drooling and he may have wet himself,” says area man.


posted by ricochet biscuit at 3:50 PM on September 20, 2021 [17 favorites]

As far as any potential surprising weirdness in the political mood of Alberta tonightor in the coming days, I refer you to our current edition of "this tweet answers the questions being raised by the tweet"
posted by nubs at 4:23 PM on September 20, 2021 [14 favorites]

CBC coverage on Youtube, since CBC's own servers seem to be struggling with the livestream.
posted by clawsoon at 4:25 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Also from the CBC, a self-updating zoomable map.
posted by hangashore at 4:31 PM on September 20, 2021

I refer you to our current edition of "this tweet answers the questions being raised by the tweet"

That is quite the tweet.
posted by clawsoon at 4:32 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

So reassuring!
posted by bumpkin at 4:37 PM on September 20, 2021

On my way home I noticed that the Liberals have bedazzled their Etobicoke candidate's signs with additional signs that say "public transit" and "climate action now" and I'm not sure what the federal government's role in public transit which is usually a municipal affair is supposed to be, but I concede that buying oil pipelines is a type of climate action.

I already voted like two weeks ago at an Elections Canada office. You can (well, could) just walk into any Elections Canada office and vote any day before election day, doesn't even have to be in your riding. The one I went to was in a disused banquet hall. 10m high ceilings with fancy chandeliers, balconies with leather armchairs and couches, and in the centre of the room clusters off desks. Had a real World War 2 European field command vibe. I was the third person on the sign in sheet that particular day.
posted by rodlymight at 4:39 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

I feel the word "ongoing" is being relied upon overmuch in that tweet.
posted by The Outsider at 4:40 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

I live in a very large riding, rural, I suppose, with no large population centres. The riding is split down the middle by a very large lake and going east/west from one side to the other is difficult sometimes. The major candidates are the current PC incumbent and the NDP former incumbent, who won the election before last. Folks east of the lake vote PC, folks west vote NDP. But there are more folks on the east side and they are rather more racist, so...

Voting was easy. No line-up.
posted by CCBC at 4:41 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Hey CCBC sounds like you're in the same riding as I am. I'm not hopeful about the current incumbent being booted due to exactly what you said above, and when the NDP former incumbent was elected, the riding was a little different and had more on the west side of the lake.
posted by sauril at 4:52 PM on September 20, 2021

and I'm not sure what the federal government's role in public transit which is usually a municipal affair is supposed to be

Coming to a neighbourhood near you (and me).
posted by hangashore at 5:03 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

I don't know if anybody is watching the CBC election night coverage, but OMG. The team is already at the punchy stage. They're taking shots at each other, cracking jokes, making snarky comments. It's really quite something. If they're like this already, it's impossible to predict what they're going to be like by the end of the night when the final B.C. numbers roll in.
posted by sardonyx at 5:10 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

"Also from the CBC, a self-updating zoomable map."

Is there anything like this, but that highlights expected and surprise results? Or a good twitter stream to follow along? I don't know how to tell who's ahead and who's behind since I don't know which ridings "should" go which way!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:11 PM on September 20, 2021

Election Atlas is a decent resource -- its a clickable zoomable map but you can click back through the years to see the past electoral maps and results as well. This is key because many riding names and boundaries have changed from election to election.
posted by bumpkin at 5:14 PM on September 20, 2021

If a live video stream works for you, Eyebrows, the CBC coverage is pretty good. Lots of extra per-riding information and anecdotes and history. Not sure about a more text-y source for what you're looking for.
posted by clawsoon at 5:18 PM on September 20, 2021

The Globe & Mail tracker includes change in seats, as well as battleground seats.
posted by jeather at 5:18 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Eyebrows, this might help: Ridings to watch
posted by nubs at 5:19 PM on September 20, 2021

Thanks guys! (I'll switch to a livestream after my kids go to bed, but I can't take the complaining if I switch over now!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:22 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Cut them a deal: "You can stay up a little later if you agree to revel in the magic of Canadian democracy in action."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:24 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

Your kids are not enthralled by the political goings-on of a different country? How we have failed this generation!
posted by nubs at 5:25 PM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

Early prediction time. 153 Liberal, 115 Conservative, 38 NDP, 31 Bloc, 1 Green, 0 PPC
posted by Ahmad Khani at 5:30 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

I mean, my middle child has spent about half the pandemic on elaborate plans to invade Canada? I'm not sure if I WANT him getting more information about Canadian politics! It will only help him with his supervillain plans!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:30 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Seriously, give them a taste of what election coverage looks like in a different country, where the main topic of conversation focused on the importance of a pancake restaurant, followed up by how a reporter had food in his teeth. Also there is running commentary about how many personal anecdotes each host can drag up about every person running for election. Also, one of the highlights was a comment about a certain commentator was not being energetic or enthusiastic enough in his demeanour being met with the response "it's the first time I've been out of my house in two years, I'll get better."
posted by sardonyx at 5:32 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

Well, make sure he knows the Governor General is only a figurehead and not worth any resources to neutralize. The House Sergeant at Arms carries the Mace, however, and might be difficult.
posted by nubs at 5:35 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

Normally I'd have posted in this thread today before now, but like a goddamn madman I decided (mostly on Friday) to create my own mediocre election simulation using a novel technique I don't think has been applied to elections before. Seriously, an absolute madman; I was up until 5 AM last night, and slept four hours.

Here's the blog post where I describe the methodology, and here's the topline results including detailed download link.

It would be better if I'd had more time, but it is what it is. The main takeaway from my projections are that the most likely outcome is a Liberal minority (about 65%), followed by a Conservative minority (25%) and a Liberal majority (8%). Median result is 147 Lib, 126 Con, 28 NDP, 36 BQ.

I just want to tell us all good luck, we're all counting on us. (seriously, help, I'm so sleepy I had to google an Airplane! quote.)
posted by Superilla at 5:42 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

Well, here we are again. I am terrified of the Cons getting in, mainly because of the extreme views of some of their MPs, and the fact that as far as I can see they're still Harper's party.
I also look at people like Jason Kenney and what an absolute disaster he's been, and how he was a star in Harper's cabinet just like O'Toole, who won't tell us a goddamned thing about what he believes.

And then, there's the People's Party, who say the quiet bits out loud so the Cons don't have to.
A woman running in Vancouver for the People's Party passed out flyers comparing the vaccine passport to the treatment of the native children in the resedential schools. Absolutely appalling and the fact that the PPC is polling as well as they are is a discgrace to this country.

And, as I am wont to do, here are some portraits.

O'Toole

Bernier
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 5:46 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

So MacLeans has a results livestream featuring ASMR and someone using pencil crayons to colour the ridings in.
posted by nubs at 5:47 PM on September 20, 2021 [10 favorites]

The House Sergeant at Arms carries the Mace, however, and might be difficult.

I feel like René Jalbert would be the final boss, though.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:48 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

No doubt! I forgot about Rene!
posted by nubs at 5:49 PM on September 20, 2021

I think it's important to remember that even though the PPC might get a seat or two under prop rep, it would also limit the number of seats so long as their support stays weak. If it grows to the point that we need a corrupt electoral system to contain them, then we have much bigger problems. Besides, prop rep also opens the door to indigenous representation.
posted by klanawa at 5:52 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

I always forget how long it is between Atlantic Canada polls closing and the next batch.
posted by nubs at 6:08 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Yeah I’m watching on Mountain time for the first time and it all feels really weirdly timed.
posted by sixswitch at 6:11 PM on September 20, 2021

followed up by how a reporter had food in his teeth

No, no, it was on his lip! Also right now they’re talking about bats flying into a building
posted by oulipian at 6:12 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

In 2019 I was actually out in NB on election night and it felt really, really off to me - incredibly late for getting a sense of what was happening
posted by nubs at 6:14 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

“ I always forget how long it is between Atlantic Canada polls closing and the next batch.”

By Saint Knowlton Nash, get on with itttttttt…
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:20 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

The long time in between does give them plenty of time for the folksy anecdotes we're enjoying so much. I expect those will get much less frequent once 9:30 ET hits.
posted by clawsoon at 6:24 PM on September 20, 2021

Going to be at least twenty minutes before there’s any meaningful results though. But I’m sure there will be breathless coverage of a polling station with 20 ballots cast that reports quickly.
posted by nubs at 6:28 PM on September 20, 2021

All right, turning on a livestream while my kids are still awake went wrong in the opposite direction: I have spent the last half an hour explaining Bloc Quebecois, what a "riding" is, which guys are "orange," etc. (My kids did immediately pick up that the PPC is repulsive when that guy was spewing his garbage on the livestream; I didn't have to explain that part, they know the dogwhistles.)

They now want to stay up until we see Quebec and Ontario results because they're invested. (They also like the anchor lady on the CBC show.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:33 PM on September 20, 2021 [11 favorites]

Rosemary Barton's pretty good, tbh. Her clapback on the coked-out PPC guy ("Basically they oppose public health measures that keep us all safe") was perfectly timed.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:37 PM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

2 to 3 hour wait until all the votes are cast... hope your kids have a comfy blanket on the couch in case this goes on for a while.
posted by clawsoon at 6:37 PM on September 20, 2021

Five minutes in and out. Was a bitter worried because a friend spent an hour early voting.

You can (well, could) just walk into any Elections Canada office and vote any day before election day, doesn't even have to be in your riding

This closed six days before election day this time around. But ya, it's pretty cool.

Can anybody summarize for me what it was that the NDP was stopping the Liberals from doing that they'd be able to do with a majority government?

It wasn't so much stopping as forcing the Liberals left. The pandemic packages were noticeably better because the NDP required changes for support for example. The national $10 childcare packages actually becoming reality are also due to NDP pushing.

I think that it is at least a consideration by the strategists that they (the liberals) don't want to give too much exposure to the NDP which this sort of deal making does. They've got to have a least a niggling of fear that the Liberals could implode like the old PC party and suddenly the remaining bits of the party are playing third fiddle to the NDP.
posted by Mitheral at 6:37 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

The Gatineau riding... FPC with some votes, which appears to be the Free Party of Canada. No Wikipedia page. Anybody have any idea who they are?
posted by clawsoon at 6:42 PM on September 20, 2021

Parti Libre Canada ici.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:44 PM on September 20, 2021

So no Covid vaccines, direct democracy, peace love and harmony?

Any idea how long they've been around?
posted by clawsoon at 6:45 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

If the PPC, the Raelians, and the Natural Law Party had a love child, this would be it, I think?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:47 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Any idea how long they've been around?

Created in 2019, registered a year ago (link).
posted by cardboard at 6:51 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Yeah, they've got the sort of grab-bag of positions you'd expect for a party built around one or two energetic crackpots, but with way more candidates -- 59 across Quebec and adjacent areas in NB and Ontario.

They were showing up on Elections Canada's list more than a year ago, but the anti-vaxx stuff wasn't there even a couple weeks ago, I think.
posted by quizzical at 6:52 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Link not working, cardboard?
posted by clawsoon at 6:54 PM on September 20, 2021

A woman running in Vancouver for the People's Party passed out flyers comparing the vaccine passport to the treatment of the native children in the resedential schools.

The handful of times I ventured out to (transit hub & heavily East Asian enclave) Metrotown station in the past 18 months, all the usual renter solidarity and climate flyers had been completely taped over with unsubtle holocaust analogies and "lock her* up" garbage and, more recently, literal white-replacement agitprop.

I could really use that Jagmeet whisky.

*Dr. Bonnie Henry
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 6:58 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Link works for me. Regardless, it’s the first result if you Google “free party Canada”, which says much about this country.
posted by cardboard at 7:00 PM on September 20, 2021

Working now, thanks. Glitch in the matrix, I guess.
posted by clawsoon at 7:01 PM on September 20, 2021

Yeah, cardboard's link worked for me. Also learned that the Christian Heritage Party is still registered. Had totally forgotten about them.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:02 PM on September 20, 2021

Also right now they’re talking about bats flying into a building

Count von Count?
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 7:07 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in Churchill–Keewatinook Aski after the unexpected endorsement mentioned in the previous thread.
posted by clawsoon at 7:09 PM on September 20, 2021

Huh. Gerry Butts is still around. Who knew?
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:10 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

In the last election, which was at the height of the Trump insanity, my thought was that if Trudeau wasn't PM at the end of election night it would be huge embarrassment to Canada.

This time around it's much more serious.

At this point in the pandemic, every day we see how weak political leadership directly leads to stress and death and suffering. Canada's federal government was one of the very few to play it right, and they should be celebrated. If they are voted out now, Canada deserves all the shit that's coming.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:13 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Anita Bathe? I can only imagine what junior high was like for her.
posted by clawsoon at 7:18 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Oh, good — Maxime Bernier is here to concede.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:21 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Observations from my children:
-"Those northern ridings are ginormous!"
-"All the reporters 'out west' look unhappy and are standing really far away from people they're interviewing." (every time the anchor says, "let's go out west" it's been to Alberta etc. and masks are not in evidence)
-"The French place names sound so pretty! But they seem hard to spell."
-"There are not that many voters!" (I explained Canada has more MPs/population than they're used to.)
-"He was in Parliament NAKED?" "On Zoom, I think." "MOM! STILL!"
-"Wait, which party is black? That big black riding up north?" "That's the Hudson Bay, dear."

Personally, I'm always surprised by how very quickly the CBC starts reporting results, with like 20 votes counted, compared to what I'm used to, and how they just show the swings going back and forth as the count comes in.

(I'm feeling kinda bad for the Greens!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:22 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

What on earth did poor Travis Dhanraj do to earn the assignment of covering the PPC superspreader HQ tonight?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:23 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

-"The French place names sound so pretty! But they seem hard to spell."

Please introduce them to Saint-Louis-du-Ha! Ha! if you haven't already!
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:24 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

"All the reporters 'out west' look unhappy and are standing really far away from people they're interviewing."

As the tweet that nubs linked to upthread put it, Alberta is not experiencing any significant ongoing issues with a lack of morgue capacity.
posted by clawsoon at 7:26 PM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

CBC calls a Liberal government.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 7:26 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Rosemary Barton is so ridiculously good at her job. Election night is such a long slog and she’s just totally in control and perfectly chill, and funny to boot. What a boss.
posted by oulipian at 7:26 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

"Those northern ridings are ginormous!"

Nunavut was the largest district represented by a single legislator in the world, last time I checked!

What on earth did poor Travis Dhanraj do to earn the assignment of covering the PPC superspreader HQ tonight?

And Rosemary closed by telling him to stay safe, so it's not like they're unaware...
posted by quizzical at 7:28 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

That's a new one, Election Canada had to clarify their rules about poll closing, usually you have to be inside at 21:30 to be allowed to vote, they've now updated it to "if you're in line at 21:30 you vote". ​Which all good to me, more people voting is always better.

In some poll stations things are going smoothly, in some other it's a bit of a mess. One riding had to drastically reduce the number of poll due to worker/location availability and it's a Plateau-Mont-Royal-during-rush-hour-plus-peak-aqueduct-fixing-season kind of traffic mess to get to the poll station, problem is it's a suburbian riding and that kind of traffic is unheard of, reports are that many people just turned back. To me this examplarize why this unnecessary election was a bad call, EC wasn't fully prepared, the circumstances aren't good, and there was no pressing need.

Local radio station, called it for the libs.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:28 PM on September 20, 2021

I was pleased to see that all the CPC signs had been taken down by residents of my little neighbourhood this morning. The NDP ones got a late start, but their candidate is a well-like local activist, so yay. But the Liberals will probably win, even though I don't think the MP showed up once in the whole campaign.

(My neighbourhood has lots of little loops and dead-ends because it was built on farmland that was criss-crossed by rail lines leading to the massive GECO ammunition factory. There's little communication between the blocked-off areas, and sometimes you'll find a cul-de-sac that's solid lawn signs for a party you'd never expect.)
posted by scruss at 7:29 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

I love the very early results where one party is ahead of the other three votes to two. They are so desperate to say anything at that point that we get incredibly serious talk about what it means that some party is ahead.
posted by jeather at 7:30 PM on September 20, 2021

CBC calls a Liberal government.

Is it just me, or does this seem like a very early call?
posted by clawsoon at 7:30 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Getting a very cold feeling looking at some southern Alberta ridings. CONs lead PPC. Few polls reporting of course.
posted by figurant at 7:31 PM on September 20, 2021

One hour after most of the country closes seems not unusually early. We just read so much about the days it might take to count votes that the night of is surprising almost.
posted by jeather at 7:32 PM on September 20, 2021

Nunavut was the largest district represented by a single legislator in the world, last time I checked!

Only because we split the Division of Kalgoorlie into two parts in 2010.

No prize for being first if we literally gave it to you, Canada.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:32 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Is it just me, or does this seem like a very early call?

The West would probably agree with you. But meanwhile Trudeau is playing this song in his head.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:33 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Is it just me, or does this seem like a very early call?

They're out of Ontario with 130 leading, usually that's a lib government. Maybe a bit early this year with so much postal votes, I guess we'll see in the following days,
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:33 PM on September 20, 2021

But they have barely counted any votes in Ontario! Leading means very little when only a small fraction of the votes have been counted. Across the country, less than 10% of total votes have been counted. Seems a little premature to call anything at this point to me.
posted by ssg at 7:36 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

They’ve already explained this accounts for the ridings the cons are expected to win. It’s over; what remains is the precise breakdown. CTV also called it.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 7:39 PM on September 20, 2021

CTV called it at about the same time as the CBC did.
posted by sardonyx at 7:39 PM on September 20, 2021

Even the con pundit on CBC agrees.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 7:39 PM on September 20, 2021

There's still time for BC to wave its collective hand to the rest of the country and say: We're Fucking Nuts!
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:40 PM on September 20, 2021

-"All the reporters 'out west' look unhappy and are standing really far away from people they're interviewing." (every time the anchor says, "let's go out west" it's been to Alberta etc. and masks are not in evidence)

Alberta is the the grip of an incompetent provincial government that declared us open for summer and the pandemic over; the pandemic had other plans and our 4th wave is horrible - our health system is near collapse, and new restrictions were only brought in last week. We have significant pockets of anti-vax sentiment and...yeah, it's bad right now. Triage protocols will likely be employed if they aren't already, before this is over.

There's a reckoning coming for the provincial Conservative party that will likely be worth its own post, perhaps later this week because the rumors are that the knives are out and waiting for this election to be done.

But that's likely why no one reporting in Alberta looks happy to be anywhere near anyone right now.
posted by nubs at 7:42 PM on September 20, 2021 [13 favorites]

Oh hey. Bernier has been defeated in his own riding.
posted by suetanvil at 7:48 PM on September 20, 2021 [12 favorites]

"But they have barely counted any votes in Ontario! Leading means very little when only a small fraction of the votes have been counted."

Usually the reporters/analysts are looking at breakdowns by polling station compared to prior elections in the same places, and they can see if voter turnout seems way up or down, they can see if it's trending the same direction as prior elections. If you look at the most conservative-friendly polling station in a particular liberal riding and the liberals are overperforming there, you can make a pretty good guess it's going to go liberal, unless there's been a big demographic shift.

When I was deeply involved in campaigns (in the US), we'd have particular polling stations that were "bellwethers," if THIS one votes this way, and THAT one votes this way, we can safely call this district. And that kind of hyper-local knowledge is why having local reporters who deeply know the place they're reporting on is really important for early calls.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:50 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

It was never his riding!
posted by fimbulvetr at 7:50 PM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

Oh hey. Bernier has been defeated in his own riding.

And he didn't even have to deal with a Rhino candidate sharing his name, this time around.
posted by quizzical at 7:51 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

It was never his riding!

It was from 2006 to 2019, no?
posted by clawsoon at 7:51 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

It'll be interesting to see what happens in Churchill–Keewatinook Aski after the unexpected endorsement mentioned in the previous thread.

As of right now, the NDP is at 43% vs. 28% for the 2nd-place Liberal candidate.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:52 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Yeah, I had the same thought right after I posted. But I am never sober on election night.
posted by fimbulvetr at 7:53 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

It was from 2006 to 2019, no?

And his father's, back in the '80s and '90s.
posted by quizzical at 7:54 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

Beauce is called for Lehoux (CPC), leaving Bernier a fairly distant second. The PPC looks to be on track to go from their previous 0-and-338 record to an 0-and-676 one.

In 1971, the Washington Generals beat the Harlem Globetrotters, ending a 2,495-game losing streak. Courage, mes amis!
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:58 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

I now have "Le lac à Beauce" in my head.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:58 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Bernier leaving in a huff after Scheer won the leadership instead of sticking around for a couple of years to try again is one of the great what-ifs of Canadian politics.

Well, maybe not a great what-if. A mildly interesting what-if.
posted by clawsoon at 7:59 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

It was never his riding!

Valid point. I stand corrected.

Oh hey. Bernier has been defeated in the riding he was trying to infest.
posted by suetanvil at 8:01 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

”Rosemary Barton is so ridiculously good at her job.”

She’s miles above any of her guest experts tonight.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:04 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

except for Chantal Hebert
posted by PinkMoose at 8:13 PM on September 20, 2021 [9 favorites]

Not sure how to express my feelings. The liberals deserve a win (good handling of the pandemic, and good public investments), but also they really don't (this election call was naked self interest). I hope they come out of this humbled, rather than emboldened.
posted by Popular Ethics at 8:15 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

It's looking like the seat counts are going to be virtually identical?
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:16 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

While I sort of hoped that the PPC would spoil a few close ridings for the CPC, it doesn't seem to have happened. And... well, I'm ok with that. If they end up with zero impact, so much the better.

And now, CBC calls the minority. Good enough for me:

NDP stable or up a couple of seats. Singh can build on that as the logical partner in governing and passing legislation.

No breakthrough for the CPC in the Toronto suburbs. Knives out?

PPC a dead-end.

And, per my first comment in this thread, I'm still gunning for no change in the seat count, (just to annoy my work colleagues mostly).
posted by bumpkin at 8:18 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Seems that way. Within a few seats (perhaps as few as 2 or 3 in total differences for the L and C ones at least), a very close match to the 2019 results.
posted by bonehead at 8:18 PM on September 20, 2021

CBC hasn't been wrong often... but legend is that in 80s, TVA, a french canadian broadcasting station, called one election for the Communist Party due to a computer error, and they had pundits skating really hard to explain that one. Alas I can't find video of that.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:18 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

I hope fans of Canadian electoral zaniness follow the Republican Party of Canada. The link goes to a Vice article on them him: it is one guy, who frequently refers to himself as “the next prime minister of Canada.”

So far as I can tell, he has never registered the party, never had his name on a ballot, is likely unaware that there are two defunct parties with the same name, and runs it out of an office just off the University of Toronto campus. I won’t dignify it with a link, but it’s just his name plus .com.

Tragically he has made it a site you have to register to view. I saw it a few years ago when it was open and he promised essentially everything to everyone: free tuition, free pharmacare and dental care, free spaying and neutering of pets, a powerful military, full employment, stronger unions, lower taxes for everyone and every new baby gets a chocolate eclair. How to pay for all this? Why, the party will fully fund everything from its own revenues. All this with just some pictures of him side by side with Trump, carefully done by someone in their second hour of Intro to Photoshop.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:19 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

There is a NDP candidate named Anjali Appadurai running in Vancouver Granville against a house flipping Liberal and I can't seem to find out if she won or not.
I mention her because she's impressive, and what caught my eye was an ad for her in my Facebook feed where she mentioned the Heat Dome. No one else mentioned it, as far as what I saw. God I hope she wins.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 8:19 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Looks like Jagmeet is the night’s biggest winner. Not that his big win is big, but it’s the biggest.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:19 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

"What did we learn, Palmer?"

"I don't know, sir."

"I don't fucking know either."

That's about my feelings on the evening and the last few weeks. Goodnight everyone.
posted by nubs at 8:22 PM on September 20, 2021 [8 favorites]

There is a NDP candidate named Anjali Appadurai running in Vancouver Granville against a house flipping Liberal and I can't seem to find out if she won or not.

The Globe and Mail tracker that jeather linked above has per-riding results under the province tabs. Looks like Vancouver Granville currently has a tight-ish race:

LIB Taleeb Noormohamed 1,330 36%
NDP Anjali Appadurai 1,122 30%
CON Kailin Che 1,044 28%
GRN Imtiaz Popat 103 3%
PPC Damian Jewett 89 2%
posted by clawsoon at 8:23 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Greens appear to be leading in Kitchener Centre. That's a big pick up for them if the vote follows through.

That's the riding the LPC candidate dropped out of following sexual harassment allegations.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/kitchener-centre-federal-election-2021-results-1.6179879
posted by bonehead at 8:27 PM on September 20, 2021

Thank you clawsoon
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 8:28 PM on September 20, 2021

I've been fliping between these two:

2021: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election/2021-results/

2019: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election/2019-results/

They're the exact same format. It's easy to see differences between them.
posted by bonehead at 8:30 PM on September 20, 2021 [6 favorites]

I made a hostile PPC-related bet with myself earlier; Sarnia-Lambton went over 10 percent for the PPC. One or two of the other ridings still might. A few surrounding ones definitely did, including the PPC candidate for Elgin-Middlesex-London, mentioned in this here tweet:

Maxime Bernier just did ‘virtual shots’ with an antisemitic vlogger, briefly joining PPC candidates Chelsea Hillier and Mark Friesen who spent the night before the election on a white supremacist web show.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:31 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Elizabeth May on CBC right now. Man, she's the smartest, most genuine MP in the country. First comment: she's glad Trudeau's move wasn't rewarded, for the good of the country. Second comments: thoughtful frank comments on the Green Party's performance and Annamie Paul's leadership choices, but none of it came across as bitter.
posted by Popular Ethics at 8:31 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

Looks like Jagmeet is the night’s biggest winner. Not that his big win is big, but it’s the biggest.

Not totally sure. As of 8:30 Pacific, with 18% of the polls in in Burnaby South, he is up by 192 votes over the Liberal challenger (1420 to 1228). That’s a decent but not insurmountable lead.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:34 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Most telling to me is that the popular vote percentages are virtually identical to the 2019 results, at least with about half the votes counted now.
posted by bonehead at 8:35 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Chantel Hebert (CBC): "Nobody wants the election. Nobody gets what they wanted."
posted by philip-random at 8:36 PM on September 20, 2021 [10 favorites]

Line of the night
posted by Popular Ethics at 8:37 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

It does look like Singh and team has won the NDP a few seats. As of right now, the G&M has the NDP at 29 leading and elected, up from 24.
posted by bonehead at 8:39 PM on September 20, 2021

Interesting that Jenica Atwin, who left the Greens to become a Liberal earlier this year, looks like she'll probably lose her seat in Fredricton (though there are still a few polls left to report and the difference is only a couple hundred votes). I wonder if she would have done better if she'd stayed Green.
posted by ssg at 8:42 PM on September 20, 2021

Looks like it'll be the most expensive cabinet reshuffle ever.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:45 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

Bernier leaving in a huff after Scheer won

He didn’t leave in a huff. He left in a minute and a huff. *Groucho eyebrow waggle*
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:45 PM on September 20, 2021 [18 favorites]

I for one am glad. Not because of any love for the declared winner. But because it will make all the right people angry. I'm a petty gloaty man.
Ha! Suck it losers.
posted by Keith Talent at 8:57 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Vancouver-Granville is my riding, and apparently there are 5000 Mail-in ballots to count tomorrow, so don’t expect a result tonight. (Go NDP!).
posted by Valancy Rachel at 9:07 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

Lisa Raitt (as Trudeau going in), talking about the acrimony of Parliament.

I’d love to see some numbers on that, but I highly doubt that acrimony in Parliament registered as a voter issue at all. With the same results as the last time, it looks like a problem of MP’s own making that doesn’t resonate outside the House.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:07 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

By far the saddest number is the PPC at least tripling their turnout this year. From 1.6% of popular vote in 2019 to (currently) 5.3%. By the time the west is counted, they'll have over half a million votes (might be closer to 600K). For a party that actively communicates with fascists, as mandolin conspiracy indicated.
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:25 PM on September 20, 2021 [7 favorites]

in military terms, it's a stalemate. A complex campaign waged by a number of competing interests. With no serious improvement of position for any of them. A lot like most of World War One except without the apocalyptically atrocious casualty counts. It feels like it might be the end (for a while, maybe a long while) of a certain kind of politics. The kind that wants an official mandate (however dubious) to throw its weight around, force its will.

The future feels like it may be far less certain than any of that, messier, hopefully better. Driven by consensus , moderates from all sides figuring out a way to be in the same room together, collaborate on setting priorities.
posted by philip-random at 9:31 PM on September 20, 2021 [1 favorite]

Elizabeth May on CBC right now. Man, she's the smartest, most genuine MP in the country.

Absolutely. We've had multiple personal interactions that demonstrated this over the years:

She helped friends get through the red tape to get a brother out of a refugee camp into Canada. (The brother in question wasn't biological, despite having been raised together since they were tiny, so didn't qualify for the normal family reunification process, and it was quite a slog.)

Then some years later she helped my spouse get the CRA to re-audit a tax decision regarding their small business that was clearly made in error. Audits aren't fun, but it was certainly better than the hundreds of thousands of dollars of mistake the CRA had made the first time around.

I've lived a variety of places both in the US and Canada, and I've never seen a local MP/Rep do as much thankless work for their local constituents.

The Green Party has imploded, and I'd have voted for our NDP candidate if it was anyone else as the Green candidate. The risk of letting the riding slide back to the CPC by splitting the vote just wasn't worth it.

Elizabeth May is a good egg.
posted by bcd at 9:36 PM on September 20, 2021 [13 favorites]

Yves-François Blanchet sounds like he could do ASMR if this politics thing doesn't work out for him.
posted by clawsoon at 9:46 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

I voted today in between classes where I exhorted my students to go vote. My polling station was in a hotel ballroom, which was a little weird but no more weird than anything else that's happened in the last 18 months. I know two other people whose polling station was in a casino, so whatever.

We were in and out in about 15 minutes, thankfully, but there was a lot more milling around while waiting to enter the polling station than I thought was safe, and also I thought it was odd that we exited the same way we had entered. We should not have been walking past all the people coming in and lining up!
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 9:54 PM on September 20, 2021 [3 favorites]

METAFILTER: but no more weird than anything else that's happened in the last 18 months.
posted by philip-random at 10:05 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

But wasn’t it May’s husband or something who was driving the palace intrigue in the Greens?
posted by sixswitch at 10:15 PM on September 20, 2021

clawson that’s also just a “smoking francophone whiskey voice” thing in general 😂
posted by sixswitch at 10:15 PM on September 20, 2021 [4 favorites]

Elizabeth May on CBC right now. Man, she's the smartest, most genuine MP in the country. First comment: she's glad Trudeau's move wasn't rewarded, for the good of the country. Second comments: thoughtful frank comments on the Green Party's performance and Annamie Paul's leadership choices, but none of it came across as bitter.

Elizabeth May is not the Green leader right now because after a decade of being the leader she managed to be very good at getting Elizabeth May re-elected and not a lot else, and Elizabeth May, regardless of smiles and friendly demeanour, was Not Happy about the party base deciding it was time to move on from her leadership. The leadership contest had at least two candidates who were fairly obvious leadership surrogates for her, if you know anybody within the party who talks about such things, and the struggle over the past year that Annamie Paul has faced with the party executive (who have treated her like dogshit from day one) was driven almost entirely by, ahem, "friends" of Elizabeth May (who dominated the executive). And her speech tonight was just a bunch of thinly veiled knives in Annamie Paul's back.

She's also historically been bad at arguing for environmental policy, which is literally her job. She's not that smart, she's not that genuine, and the Greens would be well advised to move on from her and her ilk.
posted by mightygodking at 10:33 PM on September 20, 2021 [12 favorites]

Wow. Vancouver Granville is a two-vote difference right now. Mail-in tally to come.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:36 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

I guess this is now officially a tradition. The waning hours of Canadian election night. The latest fork in the road, for better or worse. I inevitably end up listening to the Canadian Railroad Trilogy.

I guess, because it's true.
posted by philip-random at 10:40 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Damn good tradition that. Gordon Lightfoot's rarely a bad choice.
posted by bcd at 10:48 PM on September 20, 2021 [5 favorites]

Into the muskeg and into the rain...
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:57 PM on September 20, 2021 [2 favorites]

Edmonton centre is down to the wire - conservative leading lib candidate by 11 votes with 201 out of 209 polls counted!
posted by piyushnz at 11:00 PM on September 20, 2021

Man, it's now 206 out of 209 with the Liberal leading. Still razor-thin.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:32 PM on September 20, 2021

I have worked elections for a couple of decades and this was the worst shit show I have ever experienced. I JUST got home from an 18 hour shift in which I could not leave my station to piss, let alone have breaks or drink. They collapsed multiple jobs into one, then didn’t hire enough staff (my polling station was understaffed by at least half - and we were doing good compared to other local polling stations I have heard of). I’m so disappointed in how this was handled. I was lucky I only had to court just over 500 ballots at the end of the night. I tracked the voting hourly and for a few hours I was doing over a vote a minute - which is an insane pace for the amount of paperwork necessary. The voters were awesome though.
posted by saucysault at 11:38 PM on September 20, 2021 [33 favorites]

Sincere thank you for your service, saucysault.

Had a bit of an altercation at work tonight with a gentleman who was trying to work himself into a fury that we would not let him into the building and what gave us authority to deprive him of his right to vote and it was very satisfying to tell him, no, you can't enter this building unless you are vaccinated sir, and also, this is not a polling station you have the wrong place
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 12:19 AM on September 21, 2021 [14 favorites]

The future feels like it may be far less certain than any of that, messier, hopefully better. Driven by consensus , moderates from all sides figuring out a way to be in the same room together, collaborate on setting priorities.

You mean the center, which is right wing, because there are almost no moderates left on the right? So, by default, the right wing.............


sheesh, this is the kind of consensus horse shit that has been so damaging for decades now.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 1:35 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

Is this where I can share that I’ve met Chantal Hébert twice while running errands? It was very exciting for me. In both instances, I told her how much I enjoy and appreciate her work.
posted by veggieboy at 3:55 AM on September 21, 2021 [10 favorites]

Flipping quickly through all the Canadian elections on Wikipedia, it looks like this might be the most precisely status quo election in Canadian history.
posted by clawsoon at 4:05 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

...which kind of makes me disappointed for Eyebrows' kids. We usually have something dramatic happen in our election results - some party collapses or triumphs - and they just happened to tune in for the most boring election results in Canadian history.
posted by clawsoon at 4:15 AM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

didn’t hire enough staff

Because vaccination wasn't required so people didn't want to risk being stuck in a room all day with unvaccinated people. I didn't apply this year for that reason, and I know others.
posted by jeather at 4:21 AM on September 21, 2021 [12 favorites]

I walked over literal hot asphalt to vote in this nothing of an election. I mean, I knew it was going to be a covid dangerous waste of time, but I didn't know it was going to be a personally dangerous waste of time.
posted by jacquilynne at 4:57 AM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

This collective “Go fuck yourself and get back to work” may do wonders for national unity. Thank you, supporters of all candidates: we couldn’t have done this without you all.
posted by cardboard at 5:38 AM on September 21, 2021 [8 favorites]

kind of makes me disappointed for Eyebrows' kids.

On the other hand, showing more Americans that elections don’t have to be the way recent US elections have been (or politics in general) is likely at least somewhat beneficial. Some of my cousins have absolutely no conception that things could be different, for example.
posted by eviemath at 6:11 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

didn’t hire enough staff

Because vaccination wasn't required so people didn't want to risk being stuck in a room all day with unvaccinated people. I didn't apply this year for that reason, and I know others.

Yes indeed. I have worked one or two before but passed on this one because despite being doubly vaccinated I am still in a high-risk category. Elections Canada called and e-mailed me four times last month to see was I is or was I ain’t working it. I hasten to add it was four different people so it’s not like one official would not take no for an answer.

We went for advance voting maybe a week ahead of the election. Each of the four stations was staffed by a single DRO with one or two people floating around as on-call backup and relief. In 2019 the polling place I worked at — not where we voted last week — had fourteen stations, two of us at each one, plus maybe five or six more admin types milling about. So down ~85% staff?

Weirdly, the station we were queued up at had a line that fluctuated from perhaps ten to fifteen people while we moved along it, while other stations were quieter, with one seeing no traffic at all. I say “weirdly” because it was just the A to M surnames in the... electoral district? It seems peculiar that so many people would fall into this statistical anomaly. Of course, on reflection, it occurs to me that the three of us in our household have three different surnames, all in the front half of the alphabet. Maybe it is spreading.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:21 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

I felt cynical last night about the outcome of this election, and still do somewhat this morning - and certainly the popular, easy to digest narrative is that nothing changed, but this graph (SLTwitter) from last night did catch my attention. That is significant movement in Alberta, not in directions I would expect, that doesn't show up in the seat count.
posted by nubs at 7:21 AM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

The future feels like it may be far less certain than any of that, messier, hopefully better. Driven by consensus , moderates from all sides figuring out a way to be in the same room together, collaborate on setting priorities.
posted by philip-random at 9:31 PM

Some people pounced on the use of the term 'moderates from all sides' to mean a decidedly specific thing, ignoring context (imo) that anyone who has been reading philip-random's posts might otherwise acknowledge. And also ignoring (and correct me if I'm wrong) that mainly, maybe this recent history of minority governments is a hopeful trend in Canadian politics? If this trend is anything to go by, we can hope for an emerging plurality of voices in Parliament vs. the false dichotomy we see in other nations.

The past few years, we see so many examples of the pounce and the gotcha: taking words and actions and running with the dimmest view. "Election was a pure waste of time" (at least you follow a consensus of pundits.. I mean, Rosemary Barton seemed to think it's cool any time people exercise their right to vote and I'm with her on that). Anyway, for any comments with a little hope I need that. I'm getting cynical and it sucks.

Edit to add: total agreement re: any moving of the needle in Alberta.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:34 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

That is significant movement in Alberta, not in directions I would expect, that doesn't show up in the seat count.

The seat results in Alberta are significant: Edmonton Strathcona a crushing NDP victory, a Metis New Democrat elected in Edmonton Griesbach, a smashing Liberal win in Calgary, and an epic 3-way fight in Edmonton Centre. This is the stuff to give Kenney nightmares.
posted by No Robots at 7:35 AM on September 21, 2021 [10 favorites]

Once again, the GTA votes solid Liberal. Gotta protect those property values, ya know.
posted by No Robots at 7:36 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

it was just the A to M surnames in the... electoral district?

You aren't the first person to mention voting by last name, which I have never heard of before this election. It always used to be by block. I wonder why they changed it this time.

That said yes, more than 50% of people have a last name starting with A-M.
posted by jeather at 7:39 AM on September 21, 2021

"Once again, the GTA votes solid Liberal. Gotta protect those property values, ya know."

My sister fell for the trap of having to hold her nose to vote Liberal and hold off the Conservatives. As usual, that scare tactic was a lie, and she could have comfortably voted Rhino after all.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:47 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

I found myself viewing this election (especially the process and the results) as being like going to the dentist's office. In some ways, a frustrating waste of time and money, but at least nothing new to worry about.
posted by The Outsider at 7:48 AM on September 21, 2021 [7 favorites]

If you want to take some hope from the election results:
- this may signal an enduring trend towards minority governments and something like a real plurality of voices in Parliament
- some movement to suggest just maybe that monolithic conservative block of votes in Alberta is vulnerable to change
- finally: vote splitting is not just for The Left!
- O'Toole's speech suggests he's not going anywhere (we'll see what his party decides) and everything he has said recently is pointing to moving the party to win votes (move to the centre). This is highly debatable, I don't think all the votes were in before some "pro-life" group had released a statement that he lost the election because he tried to "move to the centre" or something.. but again: hope

For me, a big highlight is the election of Blake Desjarlais to Edmonton-Griesbach. If this is a sign of things to come, count me in!
posted by elkevelvet at 8:10 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

Looking at the results in Southern Ontario on this Globe and Mail map, you can really see a stark urban rural divide.
You see what appears to be small islands of Liberal red in a sea of Tory grey.
But those islands are the major cities :
Windsor, London, Kitchener, Toronto, Kingston , Ottawa.
posted by yyz at 8:16 AM on September 21, 2021

Now Jason Kenney's Very Bad Week can truly begin!
posted by mazola at 8:17 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

Map scaled by population from Wikipedia.
posted by clawsoon at 8:19 AM on September 21, 2021 [13 favorites]

You mean the center, which is right wing, because there are almost no moderates left on the right?

are we talking about Canada here? If so, I must question where you're getting your info. Or maybe we have different definitions of moderate. Mine comes from something I heard Tom Hayden (60s "radical", one of the Chicago Eight, Jane Fonda's ex,) say a while back -- that in his experience the only meaningful long term resolution of extreme political conflicts comes when the moderates on both sides of a given divisive issue find a way to work together. Sounds kind of boring, I know. But in my experience, politics is at its best when it's boring. Kind of like last night.
posted by philip-random at 8:21 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

Thank you, clawsoon, for posting a link to the map! One thing that really bugged me about CBC's election reporting is their insistence on using that regional map.. it visually does a piss-poor job of telling a person what is happening. A lot of Albertans look at that map and draw the completely worst and wrong-minded conclusions.. and the map serves to keep a lot of Canadians ignorant about the preponderance of population density not only in a narrow band of the country, but specifically as it clusters in southern Ontario.
posted by elkevelvet at 8:32 AM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

I voted in a Canadian election for the first time! 🎉

I don't understand why the conventional wisdom seems to be that Trudeau and the Liberals have gained nothing from this. They remain in power for another five years instead of another three years. From a purely political strategy point of view this may have been a good time to call an election not because the Liberals would gain big, but because they would do better now than any time in the next three years. That seems very possible.
posted by grouse at 9:00 AM on September 21, 2021 [17 favorites]

maybe this recent history of minority governments is a hopeful trend in Canadian politics?

Until we get some kind of electoral reform I would be inclined to agree. I think another minority is our best option especially if the alternative is a majority that leans heavy on regional politics. I'd rather not have an election personally but I agree with Rosemary Barton on this, any time you exercise your rights to vote is a good thing.

the only meaningful long term resolution of extreme political conflicts comes when the moderates on both sides of a given divisive issue find a way to work together. Sounds kind of boring, I know. But in my experience, politics is at its best when it's boring. Kind of like last night.

QFT and, maybe I'm just getting old, something I think I definitely agree with.
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:02 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

are we talking about Canada here?

This is the Canadian election thread, so yes?

The federal Conservative Party has moved to the right on a number of key issues. I am surprised that it would be controversial to describe denial of science on climate change or flirting with overturning longstanding Canadian consensuses like having a public (not two-tiered private and public) health care system, reproductive rights, an independent public broadcaster, etc. as immoderate. I mean, I guess props to the CPC that, unlike the PPC, they don’t deny that the pandemic exists or officially oppose vaccinations, but Conservative policy responses to the pandemic have been wholly inadequate and clearly not based primarily in science, either. I’d also describe thousands of preventable deaths in provinces under a given party’s watch, based on application of standard party doctrine, to be somewhat disqualifying as “moderate”.
posted by eviemath at 9:17 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

I don't understand why the conventional wisdom seems to be that Trudeau and the Liberals have gained nothing from this. They remain in power for another five years instead of another three years.

I think a lot of people are meh because the average duration of Canadian minority governments is less than two years. Hopefully the new parliament will be constructive and co-operative, I think the NDP are well-positioned to push for a more progressive direction. Should the Liberals play silly buggers and confidence chicken triggers another election in a couple of years, they will be rightly crucified, so they have a strong incentive there - not to mention sorting out a new leader for the next election, whenever it happens - to keep this parliament going as long as possible.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 9:19 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

grouse: I don't understand why the conventional wisdom seems to be that Trudeau and the Liberals have gained nothing from this. They remain in power for another five years instead of another three years. From a purely political strategy point of view this may have been a good time to call an election not because the Liberals would gain big, but because they would do better now than any time in the next three years.

That's a fair point, though the flipside of it is that the opposition parties in a minority parliament can bring on an election whenever (whenever-ish) they think things will be worst for the Liberals. The Liberals basically have to hope that whenever things are worst for them things will also be worst for at least one of the other parties who can prop up their government.
posted by clawsoon at 9:22 AM on September 21, 2021

Lotsa speculation that Doug Ford will be announcing a run for leadership of the CPC, which certainly wouldn't surprise me...except that he'd have to learn how to speak French, and I have strong doubts that he'd be able to.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:38 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

Ford might be available after the next provincial election so there's that.
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:49 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

Regarding cooperation across party lines, it will be interesting to see whether the Conservative caucus, in particular, decides to opt into holding power over caucus leadership via the Reform Act provisions. My guess is that they won't, but if they do, this opens the door to not risking expulsion merely for taking a more moderate stance than the leadership would like. (Though it would also potentially let the SoCon crowd slip free of the leash...)

Doug Ford [...] learn[ing] how to speak French

And now I'm envisioning him just speaking English, but with a Pepé le Pew accent...
posted by quizzical at 9:53 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

The federal Conservative Party has moved to the right on a number of key issues. I am surprised that it would be controversial to describe denial of science on climate change or flirting with overturning longstanding Canadian consensuses like having a public (not two-tiered private and public) health care system, reproductive rights, an independent public broadcaster, etc. as immoderate.

my comment was in response to someone who said: "because there are almost no moderates left on the right". I don't think that's the case. That's not close to my impression of the Canadians I know who tend to vote Conservative. My aunt and uncle from rural Nova Scotia come to mind. As a kid, they were the first two grown-ups I ever heard speaking favourably of gay rights. Later, they became close friends with Elijah Harper (remember him?) whose car happened to break down in front of their place one evening. They invited him in while he waited for a tow truck. He ended up staying for dinner and the night. And he always made a point of visiting whenever he was in the region. But as far as I know, they've never stopped voting Conservative.

And to be clear, I've never in my forty plus years of voting ever backed candidate that was to the right of the Liberals. And even there, it's been decades. As I noted in the previous Canadian election thread, my vote always goes to whoever I feel has the best chance of beating the candidate I fear the most -- the Conservatives almost always being who I fear the most. For all the reasons you mention.

But it's not as if they're a block of climate disaster denying, health care undermining, anti-abortion, anti-CBC true believers. They just aren't
posted by philip-random at 9:54 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

I can imagine a number of people who are otherwise bright and well meaning and well-off enough to be insulated from politics to simply vote for whatever party their parents voted for out of habit. or any other mundane reason. whimsy perhaps. These people only ever feel the effects of "politics" when it interacts with their paycheque via taxes, so I suppose anyone promising to lower taxes on the facebooks ads will naturally pique their interest as a candidate.
posted by some loser at 10:02 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

It is certainly true that the Conservatives changed from what they were in the past when the Reform group just stole the name out, and we don't really have a party that takes the place of the old Tory party (the Liberals have swung towards that at times). But a lot of them are voting for people who are climate disaster denying, health care undermining, anti-abortion, anti-CBC candidates, whatever their internal states may be.
posted by jeather at 10:04 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

But it's not as if they're a block of climate disaster denying, health care undermining, anti-abortion, anti-CBC true believers. They just aren't

Average Conservative voters, no. Average Conservative Members? Sorta.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:05 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

But it's not as if they're a block of climate disaster denying, health care undermining, anti-abortion, anti-CBC true believers. They just aren't

Right, though it's worth keeping in mind that in contrast to the 5+ million voters that cast a ballot for Conservative candidates in this election, the party's leader, platform, and candidates are determined by ~250,000 members. If it weren't for the weighted-by-riding leadership rules (which a faction in the party tries to rid themselves of during every party convention), they'd probably be moving even further to the right.
posted by quizzical at 10:07 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

I'm with philip-random (esp. the characterization of a type of Atlantic conservative voter). I will point out, it was Erin O'Toole who (this election) made the unequivocal comment connecting addiction to mental health and stating that we need to reframe this issue and move it away from the criminal justice focus. Don't misinterpret me to think I'd vote for the guy, or any conservative party: you'd have to get us in a time machine and specifically put me in Lougheed Alberta to make it happen.

I'm really running with the hope thing.. if the narrative and talking points start to change like this, we might see some positive changes to legislation and approaches to e.g. addictions issues.
posted by elkevelvet at 10:14 AM on September 21, 2021 [4 favorites]

But it's not as if they're a block of climate disaster denying, health care undermining, anti-abortion, anti-CBC true believers.

They've gone to a election system within the party that tends to exaggerate the fringe votes. When you have essentially equal balanced factions the minority views tend to dominate.

Which is my problem with minority governments in general; they're vulnerable to the centre having to pander to the extreme views to get the votes needed to govern. At least the Liberals have the choice of partners this time around, so we're not stuck in the trap Germany was in.
posted by bonehead at 10:33 AM on September 21, 2021

Electorally I guess the question for moderate Conservatives is whether Red Toryism can be revived without losing Alberta and Saskatchewan to a new Reform Party. That's the nuclear bomb that the West is holding over the party if it moves too far to the centre: "We've done it before, and we'll do it again."

Whether they actually would, though... yes, maybe it was O'Toole's centralism that lost him 13 percentage points in Alberta, but Conservatives still won Alberta handily, so maybe a Red Tory party could still win Alberta with another 10 point drop for being "too liberal" while picking up more seats in the rest of Canada?

What that would do to the party's money situation, I have no idea. I have the vague impression that the Alberta right wing pushes the party around in part because that's where the money comes from, but that's nothing more than a vague impression.
posted by clawsoon at 10:35 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

The CPC is the best party at fundraising by a long way. However their fundraising mechanism is really expensive to run too, so their "profit margins" tend to be smaller than other parties. The Liberals don't raise as much money, but they're not sending out weekly fliers in the mail either.

I don't think the CPC is in any trouble financially though. It's one thing they do very well as a party.
posted by bonehead at 10:37 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

Ford might be available after the next provincial election so there's that.

Mashed the fav button so fast I think I sprained my finger.

I can imagine a number of people who are otherwise bright and well meaning and well-off enough to be insulated from politics to simply vote for whatever party their parents voted for out of habit. or any other mundane reason. whimsy perhaps. These people only ever feel the effects of "politics" when it interacts with their paycheque via taxes, so I suppose anyone promising to lower taxes on the facebooks ads will naturally pique their interest as a candidate.

When I was a young teen it became clear that my dad wanted me to vote con, because that was what one did in his line of work and in his social circle. Being a young teen I bristled against this and told him I was going to vote for Ed Broadbent's NDP. You could almost see the blood mist out of his nose. (he softened his stance towards the end of his life but that's another story).

When my daughter was maybe 10 she asked me how to know who to vote for and why. among other things I said "to me it's largely down to whether you think society has a role in helping its less advantaged members or not" and being a kid of course she said why not help everyone, and i said, well, there's a price tag and not everyone is willing to pony up. I ALSO said, no matter what team you chose, it was very very hard to not be a hypocrite about it at least some of the time and that self awareness and suspicion of knee jerk reactions was key.
posted by hearthpig at 10:38 AM on September 21, 2021 [7 favorites]

Fuck I hate my riding.

• The Cons won by a landslide as they have for literally the last 49 years
• the NDP were second (actually that’s kind of amazing and hasn’t happened for a long time)
• the PPC candidate actually beat the goddamn Liberal candidate.

Any right wing vote splitting wasn’t enough for the Conservatives to lose their iron grip here.

I hate first past the post.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 10:42 AM on September 21, 2021 [9 favorites]

so maybe a Red Tory party could still win Alberta with another 10 point drop for being "too liberal" while picking up more seats in the rest of Canada?

Red toryism doesn’t seem to work anymore. The Liberals have covered that ground, leaving the Conservatives with only rage against the Liberals, which they have to share with other parties. The appeal of conservatism generally is on the wane. The NDP can win a lot of Conservative voters through innovative policies that favour an entrepreneurial economy à la Mazzucato contrasting with stale Liberal corporatism.
posted by No Robots at 10:52 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

Election Canada had to clarify their rules about poll closing, usually you have to be inside at 21:30 to be allowed to vote, they've now updated it to "if you're in line at 21:30 you vote". ​Which all good to me, more people voting is always better.

The inside line at my polling place was one person at each station and one additional person in the entrance. So the bulk of the line, such as it was, was outside.
posted by Mitheral at 11:11 AM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

So maybe a Red Tory party could still win Alberta with another 10 point drop for being "too liberal" while picking up more seats in the rest of Canada?

Ive been reflecting on what happened after 2019 to now, and there was an explosion of bile in the West after the 2019 vote. I was in New Brunswick at the time, and several people at the conference I was at talked with me about how mad everyone seemed in Alberta after the result, and some even asked me about the talk of separation.

There isn't that anger this time; I don't know how to describe the mood the day after, beyond a collective shrug. Maybe more than the numbers that tells the story - the deeply angry people have their channels in the PPC and the Maverick party and maybe there's now some room for the Red Tory contingent without bleeding off much more of the deep conservative edge. Maybe everyone's just tired and can't manage more than a shrug at what is functionally the same result as last time. I'm sure some deeper analysis will be along, but that sense of galvanizing rage is gone now, at least at the federal level - it's leveled from both sides of the spectrum at Kenney and his clown show right now. Which doesn't bode well for his future, and it also has me wondering about the stupid non-binding referendum we are getting with our municipal election about ending equalization - leave it to Kenney to get that question front and centre during this year, where federal financial support for those impacted by the pandemic has been far greater than provincial, and we're asking other provinces to help out with our overloaded health care system.

Feels like change here.
posted by nubs at 11:20 AM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

Does the CBC not usually report turnout? I thought it did, but they probably skipped it this year so they wouldn't depress everyone.

My riding, Scarborough Southwest, looks like a convincing endorsement for Bill "Papers Please" Blair: 57% of the vote, compared to Cons 21% and NDP 16%. But the turnout was only 54%, so 31% of the electors showed up for Blair. Less than a third.
posted by scruss at 11:22 AM on September 21, 2021

Look, I don't want to overstate any connections but some of us in Alberta are taking a lot of pleasure today in news that Tyler Shandro has been shuffled out of his cabinet position (Health)
posted by elkevelvet at 11:40 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

Whoa, overall voter turnout was really low:

As of Tuesday morning with 98 per cent of polls reporting, 15,993,868 of 27,366,297 registered electors showed up to vote — a turnout rate of 58.4 per cent so far.

That’s lower than the 2019 federal election, which saw 18,350,359 of 27,373,058 eligible voters cast ballots, resulting in a turnout of 67 per cent. Elections in 2015 and 2011 had turnout rates of 68.3 per cent and 61.1 per cent, respectfully.

But I mean, even I was tempted to skip this election, and I have voted in every single provincial and federal election since I have been able. I didn't skip it, but when my calculus involves

• likelihood of being exposed to COVID in my undervaccinated town: HIGH
• likelihood of my vote contributing to a change in my riding's 49 year streak of Conservative rule: LOW

Uhhhhh......

And I cannot imagine I'm the only one who felt this way. But it's in my nature to drag myself to the polls no matter what, so I went. BUT I also almost wasn't able to go: I had to isolate and take a COVID test recently, which, had that happened this week instead of last week, would have meant I couldn't vote.

With the return to school (both K-12 and postsecondary), I know a LOT of my students are isolating due to COVID exposures/infection, either from family, roommates, coworkers, their children. It's bad in BC, AB, and Sask right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of COVID related inability or reluctance to go to the polls.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 11:44 AM on September 21, 2021 [5 favorites]

Red toryism doesn’t seem to work anymore. The Liberals have covered that ground, leaving the Conservatives with only rage against the Liberals, which they have to share with other parties.

I sometimes wonder if the appeal of Red Toryism has always been that they're basically like the Liberals in policy but they're a different bunch of people so that we can give the Liberals a chastising boot when they're getting to comfy and corrupt and arrogant without changing the actual policies too much.
posted by clawsoon at 11:52 AM on September 21, 2021 [6 favorites]

Two good things out of this election:

1. I have finally after many years managed to convince my sister that she's not a Conservative. She got interested in politics when we were young and the PC party disintegrated. She found the whole thing fascinating and decided she was conservative. I'm pretty sure, had the Liberals disintegrated at the time instead, that she would have decided she was a liberal. Anyway, she's treated politics like hockey every since: gotta stick by your team and all that. Whenever we talk about actual policy it'd be, "well, I don't necessarily agree with everything they do." Except that's always what she said and, as far as I could tell and knowing my sister, she didn't actually agree with anything they did. But, "well, I'm a conservative."

But the pandemic has prompted a lot of self-reflection and growth so this time around I asked if she'd be wiling to be talked out of voting Conservative. Reader, my sister voted NDP!

2. Our dip-shit premiere Legault is no doubt upset that his little press conference telling Quebec how to vote—while claiming he wasn't telling Quebec how to vote—didn't bear fruit and that gives me a small amount of pleasure. The jack-ass is still far, far too popular for my liking but I'll take what I can get.
posted by Mister_Sleight_of_Hand at 11:57 AM on September 21, 2021 [9 favorites]

The drive into work today I notice that the Local PPC candidate's [4x8] road signs had the slogan under his name taped or painted over. I really wonder what it said. Anyone know if all PPC election signs were the same and if so what it said?
posted by Mitheral at 12:03 PM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

I sometimes wonder if the appeal of Red Toryism has always been that they're basically like the Liberals in policy but they're a different bunch of people

Well, it's a common theme in politics that when one party has a good policy, the others fall over themselves to create distinctions where there are no reasonable differences. You'll see that with carbon pricing and parties who ostensibly believe in market incentives trying to dance around what is fundamentally a good idea without outright endorsing their opponents' policy directly. All out-of-power parties do this at some point.
posted by klanawa at 12:05 PM on September 21, 2021

> I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of COVID related inability or reluctance to go to the polls.

I found the entire process of voting by mail really easy, and I might just keeping doing that from now on, pandemic or not.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:09 PM on September 21, 2021

The Card Cheat, I really wish I had applied to vote by mail. I don't remember now why I didn't.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 12:44 PM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

Should the Liberals play silly buggers and confidence chicken triggers another election in a couple of years, they will be rightly crucified, so they have a strong incentive there - not to mention sorting out a new leader for the next election, whenever it happens - to keep this parliament going as long as possible.

Perhaps I am misreading the flights of starlings and the entrails of these goats, but isn’t this likely settled? I think if Trudeau had lost his seat yesterday, but the Liberals maintained the balance of power, we’d have had Prime Minister Freeland by Thanksgiving.

I suspect the reason the Tories have been wandering for a while now is that Harper didn’t give much thought for the morrow, believing sufficient unto the day was the scandal thereof. In other words, no clear successor. Seven or eight years ago I would have assumed Kenney was the heir apparent, but I think Kenney reflected on the fates of each PM handed the keys to the country at the end of a decade or so-long term by their predecessor. Turner and Campbell did not do so well, and Martin managed to eke out one more election. Jason Kenney is no Paul Martin, though.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 12:58 PM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

Ford might be available after the next provincial election so there's that.

Ford has just dismal instincts but he does seem to listen to his advisors. They could probably tell him the last time a premier successfully made the leap to being PM. He has probably learned it wasn’t in this century. It wasn’t in the last one either.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 1:10 PM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

Tweet from Bill Blair, Canada's Minister of Public Safety, to Rick McIver, currently Alberta's Minister of Municipal Affairs (but likely about to get a different position in the impending cabinet shuffle, since everything seems to be going to him right now) after Ric sent a letter asking for help with patient transfers and critical care staff.

First, I'm glad this has finally been done. Secondly, I'm mad that it apparently had to wait until after the federal election because politics trumps lives for the UPC and CPC apparently.

Thirdly, I'm hoping this gets thrown in the teeth of everyone in this province who has been bitching about equalization. This is why we do it, you fuckers.
posted by nubs at 1:21 PM on September 21, 2021 [7 favorites]

Red Toryism died federally when Reform/Alliance ate the PCs in 2003, just like Lougheed-style progressivism was finally buried when the Wildrose Alliance absorbed the Alberta PCs and Kenney slimed his way to the leadership. If I were a federal Conservative strategist I'd be looking at getting those PPC votes back, the mushy middle is gone already. The combined CPC-PPC national popular vote share this time out was 39%, very close to the totals that yielded majority governments for Harper in 2011 and Trudeau in 2015. From the CBC's results map, I can pick out 22 close races where giving the PPC's votes to the second-place CPC candidate (or third, in a couple of cases) would have swung the election to the latter (winning party in parentheses):

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (LPC)
Edmonton Centre (LPC)
Thunder Bay-Rainy River (LPC)
Nickel Belt (LPC defeats NDP, CPC 3rd)
Nipissing-Timiskaming (LPC)
Windsor-Tecumseh (LPC defeats NDP, CPC 3rd)
London West (LPC)
Kitchener-Conestoga (LPC)
Kitchener South-Hespeler (LPC)
Cambridge (LPC)
St. Catharines (LPC)
Niagara Centre (LPC)
Kanata-Carleton (LPC)
Sydney-Victoria (LPC)
Long Range Mountains (LPC)
Skeena-Bulkley Valley (NDP)
North Island-Powell River (NDP)
Nanaimo-Ladysmith (NDP)
South Okanagan-West Kootenay (NDP)
Edmonton Griesbach (NDP)
Timmins-James Bay (NDP)
Trois-Rivières (BQ)

So that's 15 seats taken from the Liberals, 6 from the NDP, and one from the Bloc, which would have left the standings at LPC 143, CPC 141, BQ 33, NDP 19, Greens 2, leaving the Liberals with a far more tenuous grasp on power. And yes, that's a very imperfect back-of-a-gravy-soaked-Swiss-Chalet-napkin analysis, no telling whether any number of PPC voters might have just stayed home (in the West Vancouver riding, the Liberal is leading by 2177 votes, while the PPC candidate polled 2178!). How much CPC support would be lost by a harder tack to the right is the big question of course, but those 800,000+ PPC votes have to be an awfully tempting target right about now.
posted by hangashore at 1:24 PM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

He has probably learned it wasn’t in this century. It wasn’t in the last one either.

r/accidentalmitchhedberg?
posted by elkevelvet at 1:35 PM on September 21, 2021

That's not close to my impression of the Canadians I know who tend to vote Conservative.

Ok, but moderate politicians from other parties have to work with Conservative Party politicians, not random people who vote Conservative. So not particularly a relevant observation.
posted by eviemath at 1:44 PM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

moderate politicians from other parties have to work with Conservative Party politicians

Most of the Conservative politicians I've come across are pretty easy to get along with in person (the disturbing disconnect between private and public personae is a whole other issue).
posted by No Robots at 2:09 PM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

^ this observation cuts to the chase.. I've been in the room with a number of elected people who are members of parties I might support, or never support, and they do tend to be people you can be around. I imagine that is a quality you need in politics (not looking at you, Tyler "Ol Yeller" Shandro).

The machine of party politics definitely shapes things. For what it's worth, Hugh MacDonald (former Edmonton MLA with the Alberta Liberals) was one of the most "total package" elected representatives I've encountered.
posted by elkevelvet at 2:23 PM on September 21, 2021

Hugh MacDonald

Yep, truly beloved by my very NDP mother.
posted by No Robots at 2:42 PM on September 21, 2021 [1 favorite]

I once worked at a summer camp with a guy who had been to dinner at I think it was maybe Jesse Helms’ house? Relevant detail: old segregationist politician in North Carolina who was still, back in the 90s, basically an unrepentant (if “genteel”) racist and bigot. Said politician was very polite to his guests, and had an adorable puppy, according to my coworker’s report. Of course any politician who is actually going to succeed in politics will be personable on a one-on-one, personal basis. That’s part of the job. But also, even people who cause great harm in the world are human; very, very few people are complete monsters who aren’t kind or at least polite to anyone. That is unrelated to whether or not they are politically moderate, so, again, completely beside the point.
posted by eviemath at 3:16 PM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

grouse: I voted in a Canadian election for the first time! 🎉

FYI, we kept the last one warm for you so you could experience it again, this time as an eligible voter.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:19 PM on September 21, 2021 [10 favorites]

Hearing a lot of "voter suppression" on the Interwebs today from CPC and PPC stans and i just want to reach through the screen and scream
posted by Kitteh at 4:59 PM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

"The feeling you're feeling is not voter suppression, it's voter depression. Specifically, you, a voter, feel depressed, because things didn't go your way."
posted by clawsoon at 5:07 PM on September 21, 2021 [8 favorites]

Patrick Brazeau: What do Stephen Harper, Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole and I have in common? We all got beat by @JustinTrudeau. Congratulations!

Context: It was one of the stupider moments in Canadian politics.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:00 PM on September 21, 2021 [6 favorites]

That is unrelated to whether or not they are politically moderate, so, again, completely beside the point.

The point is that politicians of all stripes are open at some level to discussion, compromise and joint effort. Efforts to prevent inter-party cooperation must be opposed.
posted by No Robots at 6:06 PM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

Efforts to prevent inter-party cooperation must be opposed.

That type of cooperation is how we got universal* health care.

One of the forehead-slapping what-ifs/if-onlys was the Dion-Layton-Duceppe coalition agreement. It looked promising, and was prorogued into oblivion, sadly.

*qualifying that because it doesn't include teeth and prescription drugs -- but that can change, and should.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:18 PM on September 21, 2021 [3 favorites]

Context: It was one of the stupider moments in Canadian politics.

"Thrillah on the Hillah."
posted by clawsoon at 6:26 PM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

Efforts to prevent inter-party cooperation must be opposed.

I may not always see eye to eye with philip-random but I am sufficiently confident in both his writing clarity and my reading comprehension to say with certainty that this was the opposite of his point or assertion. Maybe have a look back up-thread before jumping into the middle of ongoing conversations that refer back to earlier comments?
posted by eviemath at 8:01 PM on September 21, 2021 [2 favorites]

Welp, it's getting really weird out here in Alberta. I don't know when I'll have the time, but I think I'm gonna need to make a post for it.

NB: The Western Standard is a publication started by Derek Fildebrandt, a former Wildrose MLA who joined the transition to the UCP, only to quit to sit as an Independent after a series of 'mistakes' like renting out his taxpayer subsidized apartment in Edmonton via AirBnB, double dipping on his expense claims, and being charged for hit and run. Fildebrandt attempted to return to the UCP as a candidate, only to be rebuffed by Kenney - which is its own little saga involving undisclosed charges for illegal deer hunting and other sorted details. Fildebrandt remains staunchly libertarian, but has been no real friend of Kenney since that time - there was a period during this long, endless March of 2020 when the Western Standard was receiving live information from inside UCP caucus meetings and publishing it, and they also may have been the victim of a planted story in return. All of which is a long way of saying the Western Standard is a publication with a strong editorial position. And this is also a long way of point out that Alberta politics have gotten weirdly convoluted over the last decade or so, and ever new wrinkle seems to involve a lengthy backstory.

I'll show myself out.
posted by nubs at 8:15 PM on September 21, 2021 [14 favorites]

Hearing a lot of "voter suppression" on the Interwebs today from CPC and PPC stans and i just want to reach through the screen and scream

Plenty of copy-pasted lines about the fix being in with the Dominion machines and Trudope has to resign at once.

FFS, we vote with pencil and paper in this country. The votes are counted by hand. I know; I’ve been the guy counting them.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:24 PM on September 21, 2021 [7 favorites]

NB: The Western Standard is a publication started by Derek Fildebrandt, a former Wildrose MLA who joined the transition to the UCP

Ah. Sort of a spiritual heir to the screaming bigotry of Link Byfield and the Alberta/Western Report, then?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:00 PM on September 21, 2021

FFS, we vote with pencil and paper in this country. The votes are counted by hand. I know; I’ve been the guy counting them.

Reference for our American cousins: Elections Canada is a completely independent agency separate from everything else in government that only runs federal elections. All of the ballots are checked off on paper chits, and counted on the night of the election. USA should have something like this.
posted by ovvl at 9:05 PM on September 21, 2021 [6 favorites]

Since the edit window closed: Ted Byfield. Link came later, but was also a bigot.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:10 PM on September 21, 2021

All of the ballots are checked off on paper chits, and counted on the night of the election. USA should have something like this.

We generally elect one person at a time. Sometimes as many as three or four in municipal elections, what with mayor, councillor, and school board, but rarely more than that. American ballots can include a dozen or more national, state and local candidates. I can't imagine how difficult it would be to hand count them all.
posted by jacquilynne at 4:42 AM on September 22, 2021 [5 favorites]

> Context: It was one of the stupider moments in Canadian politics.

The thing that really blows my mind about that stupid publicity stunt is, if Trudeau had gotten his ass kicked he probably never would have become PM.

> Welp, it's getting really weird out here in Alberta.

I think it's gonna get weird all around in Canadian Conservative circles. Losing to Trudeau for a third time in a row will break the brains of a lot of people and it seems like the right/hard-right crack-up Harper was so skilled at preventing is going to gain a lot of steam as everyone jockeys for position and attempts to become the standard-bearer for the movement.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:18 AM on September 22, 2021 [4 favorites]

There was a guy on my charter bus into work yesterday with a Fuck Trudeau hat, jacket, patch on his backpack, and he was handing out stickers. I have no doubt it was his truck in the airport parking lot plastered with stickers of the same. Hundreds of dollars to let Justin live in his head.
posted by Mitheral at 6:35 AM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]

Patrick Brazeau: What do Stephen Harper, Andrew Scheer, Erin O’Toole and I have in common? We all got beat by @JustinTrudeau. Congratulations!

Context: It was one of the stupider moments yt in Canadian politics.

Yeah, I was trying to think of an equivalent to convey to the largely American user base what this was like. Perhaps if AOC kicked Matt Gaetz’s ass on live tv?

I actually created a lengthy FPP five years ago about Brazeau. His trajectory from national chief of the Congress of Aboriginal Peoples to being youngest senator in history to being expelled from the Tory caucus following his 2013 arrest for domestic assault and sexual assault to becoming manager of an Ottawa strip club was epic. The FPP didn’t stay up long, though: it was after his 2016 hospitalization for undisclosed reasons which many read as the aftermath of a suicide attempt (they were correct) and a mod rightly said it was a bit untoward in its timing. I cannot disagree.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:41 AM on September 22, 2021 [7 favorites]

He returned to the Senate didn't he? I thought I had heard that.
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:50 AM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]

He returned to the Senate didn't he? I thought I had heard that.

Yup.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:54 AM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]

Can you imagine the leader of the CPC starting speeches with "Folks!" Because I can.
And the scary thought of the PM starting speeches with "Folks!" follows as its own special horror.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:04 AM on September 22, 2021 [2 favorites]

*SHUDDER*

Every time I hear Ford say "Folks!" on the radio, it it like nails on a chalkboard.
posted by fimbulvetr at 11:36 AM on September 22, 2021 [4 favorites]

Hats off to Michael FOLKS Dunbar Jr. for leading the way.
posted by scruss at 11:55 AM on September 22, 2021

Oh, indeed.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 12:34 PM on September 22, 2021

We generally elect one person at a time. Sometimes as many as three or four in municipal elections, what with mayor, councillor, and school board, but rarely more than that. American ballots can include a dozen or more national, state and local candidates. I can't imagine how difficult it would be to hand count them all.

My take is that the proper answer to this is to elect less people and let those people hire/nominate competent people for these non political roles, but I don’t see that changing in the US.

But really, you could vote by hand and scan to count, with proper ballot designs the software is easy (and rejects can be hand verified), the trickiest part is probably making a machine that can scan them all without skipping/jamming, and even this is mostly solved in copiers.

This is probably done in the us somewhere because I remember seeing people feeding piles of votes in machines to be counted.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 1:02 PM on September 22, 2021 [1 favorite]

To be honest, I hate it more when he says "friends".
posted by Ashwagandha at 1:03 PM on September 22, 2021 [3 favorites]

I am sad about this Conservative/politician-speak connotation of the word “folks.” It’s the gender neutral alternative I’ve trained myself to use instead of “guys.”
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 1:16 PM on September 22, 2021 [3 favorites]

But really, you could vote by hand and scan to count, with proper ballot designs the software is easy (and rejects can be hand verified), the trickiest part is probably making a machine that can scan them all without skipping/jamming, and even this is mostly solved in copiers.

In Ontario provincial elections, paper ballots are still marked by hand, but are scanned in for instant tabulation. There's still a box of paper ballots that is retained for purposes of recounts, etc., so it's a best-of-both worlds situation. This was introduced in 2018:

When voters show up at a polling station, a machine will scan their notice of registration card, a process similar to scanning food at a grocery store.

Then the voters will receive their ballot from an official, fill it out and hand it back to the official who will put it through the tabulating machine.

But there's another reason why this is a good thing: accessibility.

During an Ontario provincial election, all returning offices have the following available:

Assistive Voting Technology lets voters listen to their ballot choices and cast their ballot secretly and independently. It is available in all returning offices and satellite offices from the first day of advance voting until 6 PM (Eastern Time) the day before election day.

Voters can choose between three controller options to make their selection:

- Audio tactile interface: the controller has audio directions, and features large raised buttons, bright colours and Braille inscriptions.
- Paddles: the paddles can be pressed using hands, feet, or elbows to vote.
- Sip and puff technology: the device allows voters to mark their ballot by "sipping" (inhaling) or "puffing" (exhaling) into a straw.

It marks the paper ballot per the voter's instructions, which is in turn scanned like all the others.

Toronto now uses a similar system for its municipal elections, and a number of other municipalities do as well.

My blind spousal unit and I have voted together in many a federal election, and there is literally no way for him to independently and secretly cast his ballot and verify that it's been filled out properly. But since 2018, that's been possible provincially, and it's now possible when he votes municipally in Toronto.

Cobourg has telephone and online voting for its municipal elections (!!!).

Elections Canada has some catching up to do, let's just say.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:36 PM on September 22, 2021 [8 favorites]

I have no doubt it was his truck in the airport parking lot plastered with stickers of the same. Hundreds of dollars to let Justin live in his head.

I feel like this guy is working some stuff out. Stuff that bubbled up for him the first time he saw one of those shirtless Trudeau pics.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:37 PM on September 22, 2021 [2 favorites]

A discussion of short- and long-term effects that proportional representation might have had on this election.
posted by clawsoon at 6:30 PM on September 22, 2021

I feel like this guy is working some stuff out. Stuff that bubbled up for him the first time he saw one of those shirtless Trudeau pics.

My finding is that if someone on social media is interested in Only One Thing, they are pretty tedious to deal with. I have friends and acquaintances who are seemingly interested only in NBA basketball, or sewing, or Doctor Who, but at least they pursue a more general field and not one person.

I see comments on news stories from account that have absolutely nothing in their feed except memes about Justin Trudeau. As far as you care to look back, six or eight or ten memes a day about him. Some are bots, of course, but there is a lot of barely-suppressed erotic fixation out there on our PM.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:54 PM on September 22, 2021 [2 favorites]

MeFi: barely-suppressed erotic fixation

I'll never forget an exchange with a co-worker back around the first time Trudeau the Younger was elected. She could not conceal her distaste for him, but she never produced any substantive reasons: the sound of his voice made her (and I quote) "want to throw up" and she despised his "smug face." This, from a thoroughly white, comfortably middle class, slightly older than middle-aged woman who would do a quilting bee recruitment poster proud. That was my first hint of what was going on.. I mean, I'd exchanged my share of quips re: ol' Mr. Roboto (Harper) and derided his musical efforts etc., but I'd like to think that was based firmly on his demonstration of contempt for e.g. publicly funded science. In short, my tribe is superior, /s. But seriously, the frenzied hatred for politicians of an opposing stripe does seem to be worsening.

Anyone see Bert "Recall Erin O'Toole" Chen on the news last night, expressing his disappointment of O'Toole? I knew the knives would come out, just a little surprised they were brandished on the six o'clock news the day after the election.
posted by elkevelvet at 7:58 AM on September 23, 2021 [2 favorites]

Speaking of knives coming out, for those interested in the Alberta situation, Kenney managed to brazen his way through a caucus meeting yesterday by making the non-confidence motion an open vote, not a secret ballot; and agreeing to a leadership review in the spring (rather than the fall) of 2022. Basically, my read is he just fired the starters gun on the leadership race after pointing out that no one is quite ready yet. And there is a UCP AGM in November 2021. The pot is simmering.

It should be noted that Allison Redford, another deeply unpopular Conservative Premier, emerged from a caucus meeting where everyone was pledging loyalty only to resign 10 days later.
posted by nubs at 8:29 AM on September 23, 2021 [2 favorites]

^ I'd be rubbing my hands in grim satisfaction if it wasn't for my deepening sense of abject despair when it comes to (my fellow) Albertans' propensity to double, then triple, then (etc) down on the most stubbornly self-damaging voting behaviours in the country.
posted by elkevelvet at 8:35 AM on September 23, 2021 [1 favorite]

Napoleon's advice to the Alberta NDP.
posted by No Robots at 9:29 AM on September 23, 2021

Twitter takes down Maxime Bernier tweet that gave out reporters' contact info

Because doxxing people who write things critical of your policies is definitely the sign of stability in a strong leader.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 10:41 AM on September 23, 2021 [6 favorites]

Although I guess any party leader whose electoral record is, what, 0 and 660? might be getting a little desperate.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 10:48 AM on September 23, 2021

FYI, we kept the last one warm for you so you could experience it again, this time as an eligible voter.

For sure!
posted by grouse at 6:28 PM on September 23, 2021

> Because doxxing people who write things critical of your policies is definitely the sign of stability in a strong leader.

For PPC voters it is.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:59 AM on September 24, 2021

For a good summary of which seats flipped (and what the conventional wisdom was beforehand), see the Election Prediction Project. In BC, for example, the Liberals added four seats (Vancouver Granville, Richmond Centre, Steveston-Richmond East, and Cloverdale-Langley City), and the NDP added two seats (Port Moody-Coquitlam and Nanaimo-Ladysmith). The Conservatives lost four seats, and the Greens lost one. The Liberals held onto some seats they were predicted to lose: Burnaby North-Seymour, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, West Vancouver.

It's a third victory for Trudeau - by the time of the next election, he'll have been Prime Minister for eight years. I'm 52 years old, and in my adult lifetime, Trudeau's been the most progressive Prime Minister by far. I'm particularly glad that the national climate plan has now survived two federal elections, and that O'Toole won't get a chance to scrap the $10/day childcare program.

Chantal Hebert: Justin Trudeau didn't win his majority, but his opponents were the real losers.

Justin Trudeau is widely seen by Liberal insiders and observers alike as having entered the legacy stage of his tenure. That’s usually a time when leaving one’s mark on the country comes to matter more than electoral machinations.

That’s not so much because he failed to secure a majority on Monday as because he is now a third-term prime minister.

Up to a point, all politicians are at the mercy of the unexpected. Trudeau’s tenure to date — featuring as it has the Trump presidency and the pandemic — certainly lived up to that adage.

But in the normal course of events, few expect him to lead the party into a risky fourth campaign. It won’t happen tomorrow, but many believe he will decide to leave the stage at some point down the road in his third term.

Between now and then, the stars remain favourably aligned to advance the Liberal agenda.

She notes that there'll be provincial elections in Ontario and Quebec next year. Ford is already talking about signing onto $10/day childcare.
posted by russilwvong at 3:49 PM on September 24, 2021 [5 favorites]

It's a third victory for Trudeau - by the time of the next election, he'll have been Prime Minister for eight years.

Although not in the same numbers as before, some Tory supporters still seem to be relying on his youth and inexperience as criticisms. He has now been PM longer than Diefenbaker (or Bennett or Pearson) . If he hangs on a full four years until the next election, he will surpass Borden, St. Laurent, Mulroney, and Harper.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:26 AM on September 25, 2021 [7 favorites]

some Tory supporters still seem to be relying on his youth and inexperience as criticisms

As you point out, he's not inexperienced any more. And he's older than O'Toole, as discussed in the first thread about this election. It's pretty thin gruel at this point.
posted by nubs at 9:43 AM on September 27, 2021 [1 favorite]

Annamie Paul is stepping down as Green Party leader:

Paul said she had thought of quitting before all the votes had been cast because her time as leader has been such a miserable experience.

"What people need to realize is that when I was elected and put in this role, I was breaking a glass ceiling. What I didn't realize at the time was that I was breaking a glass ceiling that was going to fall on my head and leave a lot of shards of glass that I was going to have to crawl over throughout my time as a leader," she said.

"This was not easy. It has been extremely painful. It has been the worst period in my life, in many respects."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:33 AM on September 27, 2021 [3 favorites]

Besides Paul's own inability to hold the Green Party together, it seems like maybe the Green Party has accomplished what it set out to do? The Liberals have put a national climate policy in place, including a steadily rising carbon price that's high enough to meet our targets, and fought the political and legal battles needed to get it onto solid footing. Under O'Toole, the Conservatives have reluctantly conceded on carbon pricing.

If we're getting to a cross-party consensus on climate policy, what's the future role of the Green Party?
posted by russilwvong at 1:55 PM on September 27, 2021

The Liberal's climate policy is very far from enough. We need immediate action to decarbonize, not vague plans and targets far in the future, while we increase oil production. The Liberal plan is simply not compatible with our future in Canada or the rest of the world.

It's unfortunate that Annamie Paul wasn't able to carry that message into the election and instead chose to focus in her comments to the media on herself and politics within the Green Party.
posted by ssg at 2:33 PM on September 27, 2021 [3 favorites]

The Liberal's climate policy is very far from enough.

The key thing is that with the national carbon price floor and the federal carbon tax (for provinces which refuse to implement their own carbon price), now we have a brake pedal. If scientists tell us we need to cut emissions faster, we can hit the brakes faster by raising the carbon price faster. Before carbon pricing (and before the Supreme Court ruling in March on the constitutionality of the federal carbon tax), we were basically in a car without brakes.

On a less abstract level, transport and electricity are the two most important sectors to decarbonize - together they account for than 50% of future global emissions. Canada's already decarbonized a lot of its electricity: BC, Manitoba, and Quebec have lots of hydroelectricity, Ontario shut down its coal-fired power plants in the early 2000s, Alberta is shutting down its coal-fired power, and the Liberal government is requiring all coal-fired power to shut down by 2030. On the transport side, Quebec's zero-emissions vehicle mandate requires an increasing share of new passenger vehicles sold in the province to be zero-emissions (basically electric), rising to 100% by 2035; the Liberal government is planning to set up a nationwide 2035 mandate.
posted by russilwvong at 5:41 PM on September 27, 2021 [2 favorites]

Canada has some of the highest per capita emissions in the world. While shutting down coal-fired power plants and encouraging the sale of electric vehicles are good things to do, they are the very lowest of the low hanging fruit. We need to do so much more. Simply doing some good things is not enough, we need to reduce our emissions to near zero, very quickly.

Yes, BC's electrical supply is fairly low carbon, but we also have per capita carbon emissions about twice the EU average, so let's look at the right metrics.

Carbon pricing is also a good thing, but the price is far too low and is more symbolic than effective at the moment (and has all kinds of exemptions). Scientists are telling us right now that we need to cut emissions much faster and we are ignoring them.
posted by ssg at 5:52 PM on September 27, 2021 [4 favorites]

ssg: It's unfortunate that Annamie Paul wasn't able to carry that message into the election and instead chose to focus in her comments to the media on herself and politics within the Green Party.

She's quitting after running a dignified campaign with knives sticking in her back the whole time. She's earned the right to be a little prideful and bitter in her exit speech IMO. I used to donate to the Green Party, but this year has tanked my opinion of them (and I don't really care who's fault it is).
posted by Popular Ethics at 10:00 PM on September 27, 2021 [3 favorites]

Leger just sent me a newsletter with some post-election polling. A couple of snippets:

Among Canadians who voted in the 2021 federal election:
45% considered voting for the Liberal Party
44% considered voting for the Conservative Party
42% considered voting for the NDP
14% considered voting for the Green Party
12% considered voting for the PPC
9% of Albertans/Saskatchewanians considered voting for the Maverick Party

And:

The main reason Canadians voted for each party are:
Among Liberal voters, to avoid a Conservative government (25%)
Among Conservative voters, to get rid of the Liberal government (39%)
Among NDP voters, because the party best represents their values and beliefs (48%)
Among Bloc Québécois voters (Quebec only), because the party is there to defend Quebec’s interests (35%)

posted by clawsoon at 7:17 AM on September 28, 2021 [4 favorites]

There are obviously wildly divergent views on what happened between the Green Party and Annamie Paul, but no matter who you are, if you actually care about the Party you're resigning from and what it stands for, you don't smear them on the way out the door. That's just dragging everyone else down (all the volunteers, all the candidates, etc) to make yourself feel better.
posted by ssg at 7:31 AM on September 28, 2021

That’s not always the case. People who resign with public resignation letters documenting long-standing issues that organizations aren’t addressing perhaps more commonly hope that their resignation will provide the impetus for improvement. I’m thinking, recently, of the resignation of the US enjoy to Haiti over refugees being sent back there (and the shockingly abuse treatment of Haitian refugees at the US-Mexico border).
posted by eviemath at 7:46 AM on September 28, 2021 [2 favorites]

ssg if you actually care about the Party you're resigning from and what it stands for...

I hear you, but why should she care at this point? I'd feel no loyalty in her shoes.
posted by Popular Ethics at 10:35 AM on September 28, 2021

Even if she feels no loyalty to the GPC, I would have hoped that she would have taken a minute to think about the many people who have worked for decades to try to bring the green message into the mainstream, to try to build up the party to the point of being able to actually contest elections and balance that with the damage she did by complaining in the media on her way out the door. Why not have a little dignity and leave quietly to let others start the work of picking up the pieces? What does Annamie gain, other than for her own ego, by giving the press conference she gave?
posted by ssg at 11:17 AM on September 28, 2021

The hope that the Greens will stop being a maelstrom of self-pwnership, I reckon.
posted by seanmpuckett at 1:15 PM on September 28, 2021 [3 favorites]

What does Annamie gain

See my reply immediately below the first time you asked this and two comments above the second time you asked it for one possibility. Or, basically, what seanmpuckett also said.
posted by eviemath at 8:33 PM on September 28, 2021

Facebook has started showing me election ads for some Canadian white supremacist party. I'm glad to see that they're as incompetent in their ad buys as they are hateful.
posted by clawsoon at 3:52 AM on September 29, 2021

The GPC federal council showed that they would rather burn down their party than have it be lead by a Black woman. All Ms. Paul did in her resignation speech was point that out.

The people being disrespectful here are the federal council members. They're the ones who disrespected the volunteers, candidates, and activists by letting their entrenched racism stand in the way of environmental justice.
posted by Banknote of the year at 5:09 PM on September 30, 2021 [2 favorites]

A Black Jewish woman. We can't be sure which one they found more objectionable.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:05 AM on October 1, 2021 [2 favorites]

"There are no winners here, only losers." The inside story of how the Green party toppled Annamie Paul and tore itself apart in the process.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 6:05 PM on October 2, 2021 [1 favorite]

Elizabeth May: Annamie Paul told me to stay silent. But now I must say something

For what it's worth, everything Elizabeth May writes about the issues with Annamie Paul's leadership style and expectations matches with what I've seen. From my little corner of Canada, it has been truly awful how she has treated the volunteers working hard on the ground here to try to get a Green elected.

It's so dispiriting how some mismatched expectations about what it means to be the leader of the Green Party have been turned into accusations of racism and anti-semitism. The Green Party is far from perfect and I'm sure some people have biases that have come into play, but I think the fundamental issue is as Elizabeth May describes it. Annamie Paul probably sincerely believes that people haven't supported her leadership because of her ethnicity and religion, but I think the reality is that people haven't supported her leadership because she hasn't been willing to accept that being the leader of the Green Party is not what she seems to think it is.
posted by ssg at 8:56 AM on October 3, 2021 [1 favorite]

Elizabeth May is pretty diplomatic in that op-ed, but I think she's missing a bit of self reflection. You can blame Annamie Paul all you want for trying to exert control over the party which she led, as if that's a bad thing. Or you could look deeper and realize that your executive structure is fucked, and you aren't ever going to win elections until you reorganize to prevent this kind of internal bickering from tanking the party again.

I've worked in "consensus based" NGOs before. This story confirms my low opinion of them.
posted by Popular Ethics at 3:36 PM on October 3, 2021

I just finished Jody Wilson-Raybould's "Indian" in the Cabinet. To say it paints a deeply unflattering portrait of Justin Trudeau is an understatement. I wonder if he called the election early so more people wouldn't have read it? Its such a hot ticket at TPL at the moment that the self-checkout machines choke on it, and it has to be hand checked out by a member of staff.
posted by scruss at 1:51 PM on October 4, 2021 [2 favorites]

Interesting point, scruss. Whenever someone said, "The Liberals are calling the election now because they don't think they'll have a lead like this again in their term," I thought the people saying it maybe didn't understand random fluctuations in popularity. But the release of Wilson-Raybould's book is decidedly non-random...
posted by clawsoon at 2:37 PM on October 4, 2021

Huh. A recount happened in the Quebec riding of Châteauguay–Lacolle.

No dudes in tactical gear, clutching AR-15s, screaming about a stolen election.

Just a provincial superior court judge overseeing the recount in what was a very tight race:

After a recount, Liberal incumbent MP Brenda Shanahan will hold onto the riding of Châteauguay–Lacolle, defeating Bloc Québécois candidate Patrick O'Hara by a narrow margin.

According to Elections Canada, the final tally was 18,029 to 18,017 — a difference of only 12 votes, or .02 per cent.

Boring. The way it should be.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:45 PM on October 8, 2021 [3 favorites]

This must have been satisfying for Travis Dhanraj, mentioned above, to tweet out...

Saskatoon police lay 1st charge in connection with People's Party election night event: 3 more tickets pending for failure to mask at indoor public event
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:51 PM on October 15, 2021 [1 favorite]

A couple interesting post-election interviews on David Herle's podcast:

Anne McGrath, national director of the NDP

Catherine McKenna
posted by russilwvong at 8:45 PM on October 15, 2021