As global leaders debate the wisdom of a U.S. attack on Iraq, the global oil industry is already thinking about the aftermath -- both the short-term risks of supply disruption and price spikes, and the possibility of a long-term bonanza in a region that contains about two-thirds the world's proven reserves but is still largely closed to Western companies.like i'd guess with a US administered iraq OPEC's role would be a severely diminshed. and a weakened ability for the cartel to influence production and oil prices would, i think, call into question the long-term viability of oil revenues bolstering current regimes, i.e. it could undermine economic and political structures to an extent that they might not survive. obviously, to the benefit of non-oil exporting countries (and to a lesser extent competitors, e.g. norway, russia) but not clearly to the US. for instance (from the same article):
[...]
A common theme of the longer-term scenarios is the varying extent to which a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq may open up to Western oil companies to help it find, develop and market its formidable reserves, and diminish the dominant role of Saudi Arabia in the region and in OPEC.
France's TotalFinaElf SA, Italy's Eni SpA and a clutch of companies from Russia, China and India already have agreements to develop Iraq's huge oil fields -- second only to Saudi Arabia in terms of proven reserves -- once United Nations sanctions are lifted. Oil company executives say American and British companies are expected to be invited by the Europeans to share the risks and rewards.the question is whether the people living in the region will get a fairer shake if it ever comes around. like for nigeria, having foreign-developed oil fields hasn't been such a great deal. altho the profit motive is clearly a consideration, i feel like unless "development" redounds to iraqis it's more of a concern.
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posted by specialk420 at 8:20 PM on September 2, 2002