October 22, 2002

1:47 PM

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle may be hindering DC sniper investigation. An interesting, albeit unanswerable, question: Is the sniper responding specifically to feedback from the media -- or are the examples in the linked article "cherry-picking" to make the point? Also, apparently the art of "profiling" as practiced by TV expert commentators can very effectively destroy any profile investigators may have constructed on the guy. Think before you post to this thread: the sniper could be a Metafilter reader.
posted by stupidsexyFlanders (53 comments total)

I *definitely* feel that the shooting over the weekend was a definite smash at "s/he doesn't shoot on the weekends". I can't wait to hear what they say the sniper isn't doing the next time.
posted by djspicerack at 1:52 PM on October 22, 2002

Maybe they should bait him with " the Sniper does not shoot while in police custody after surrendering"
posted by thirteen at 1:57 PM on October 22, 2002

Very interesting article. Of course this guy is watching the news - why wouldn't he? This is his time for glory and he's going to bask in every incorrect speculation and every opportunity to prove the media wrong. Anyone wonder what would happen if the media just stopped paying attention? Nothing.
posted by widdershins at 1:58 PM on October 22, 2002

I wish I could be Moose's speech writer.

"The one thing of which we're absolutely certain is that the sniper will never, ever turn himself in...."
posted by oissubke at 1:59 PM on October 22, 2002

Maybe they should bait him with " the Sniper does not shoot while in police custody after surrendering"

I gotta read more on preview...stole my thunder....
posted by oissubke at 2:01 PM on October 22, 2002

Chief Moose has capitulated with the most recent Aspen Hill bus driver shooting:

"We have not been able to assure that anyone, any age, any gender, any race. ... We have not been able to assure anyone their safety with regards to this situation"

Police have also received a message warning: "Your children are not safe anywhere at any time."
posted by stbalbach at 2:02 PM on October 22, 2002

All right, this is an interesting sniper story angle, without being newsy. See folks, it can be done, and I bet this thread will stick.

Interesting points, but it also presupposes that the media is not doing exactly what law enforcement wants to "telegraph" to the sniper(s). Of course, that would then start to be a triple-bluff (we'll tell the media what we don't want him to hear, because we really do want him to hear that, and we think he'll react accordingly) so I doubt it could be pulled off.

That said, I would almost bet that there will not be any more shootings at gas stations - a great deal has been made that they seem to be a "favorite target".
posted by yhbc at 2:04 PM on October 22, 2002

I understand the sniper hasn't shot any tv news reporters yet...
posted by inpHilltr8r at 2:10 PM on October 22, 2002

Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle relates to this how?
posted by Qubit at 2:12 PM on October 22, 2002

From the first link: Heisenberg had shown that the act of observation itself affects what is being observed.
posted by JonahBlack at 2:14 PM on October 22, 2002

You can't determine the location of the electron and its speed at the same time because you measuring an electron's location changes its speed and measuring its speed changes its location, and you can't know both at the same time. It applies to the sniper because whenever the news releases information about his supposed profile and habits, they change in response to the news story. That's how the analogy works.
posted by Veritron at 2:16 PM on October 22, 2002

Not to mention the copycat angle. Of course in 20 years, when everyone has a gps chip in their arm, it won't be a problem.
posted by Beholder at 2:18 PM on October 22, 2002

Did anyone see Copycat? I've been reminded of many lines from that movie recently, especially when Sigourney Weaver's character talks about how the serial killer wants to be caught because that's the only way he/she will be famous. And the lengths they will go to to demonstrate their cleverness. I'm sure the made-for-TV movie is already being scripted.
posted by widdershins at 2:31 PM on October 22, 2002

I dont think ballistic fingerprinting goes far enough. I believe that every single bullet manufactured should be built with a unique device in the center of it's slug that would allow it to be traced unerringly to the registered person who purchased the ammunition. Now I believe that there are perfectly legitimate reasons why someone might want to own and yes even fire a gun. But if every single round were accounted for, that might help trace who is shooting who in the cases where it isnt legal. Sorry it's only tangentially related to the Heisenberg metaphor, but I think this can and should be done.
posted by mikojava at 2:31 PM on October 22, 2002

Slightly OT, but interesting (to me, at least) Slate article from this spring regarding the use (and misuse) of Heisenberg's principle.

More on-topic: Washington Post article critiquing the media blather trying to analyze the sniper's next move. (Via Blather, appropriately enough.) Sample "analysis":

Fox's Alan Colmes: "Jack Trimarco, will this person strike again?"

Trimarco: "He'll strike again. Hopefully, he won't kill again, but he will be apprehended or killed, or, as I said, turn the gun on himself at the scene of his last shooting."
posted by scody at 2:31 PM on October 22, 2002

I live in the area (actually used to live in Aspen Hill a few years back.) Last weekend, my husband and I went to the movies in a town not far from where we live now, a bit north of where all the shootings have been so far. We used to live in this town, too. It's a quiet place, very difficult to navigate in and around because of the local laws requiring green spaces and hidden signage. I hated it when we lived there, because if you didn't know exactly where you were going, you'd never find the gas station or grocery store . . . all the necessities of life are there, just tucked away behind embankments and winding access roads so you can't see them from any main road. I said - jokingly - to my husband that the media ought to say "Well, the shooter hasn't hit ********, MD yet, so the residents there ought to feel fairly safe." Then, the police should set up a trap and spring it when the shooter falls for it. There are only about four main ways to get in or out of this town. (Forget for a moment that someone would have to get shot - or at least get shot at - for my idiotic plan to work, okay? We're all a tad stressed lately.)

Just now, I was reading a local online paper. Damned if I didn't read this that this other city, this time even farther north, is feeling "safe." It's a main headline on the front page of the site. (I can't get the link to work. Just as well. The shooter is probably not a MeFi reader, but I'm not going to make that assumption. Suffice it to say that it isn't the Washington Post.)
posted by Corky at 2:35 PM on October 22, 2002

I believe that every single bullet manufactured should be built with a unique device in the center of it's slug that would allow it to be traced unerringly to the registered person who purchased the ammunition.

This wouldn't work, because it's fairly easy to make your own ammunition.
posted by Beholder at 2:46 PM on October 22, 2002

On the theory that the internet has everything, I did a google search on "I am god". (I would provide the link to my search result but I'm no good at writing code) Anyway, there were 72, 000 hits. God wants to make himself known, so he may be in there somewhere, if anyone has the patience to look. I wonder if the police are following that sort of lead.
posted by donfactor at 3:08 PM on October 22, 2002

I don't think he'll keep playing the "make the media look dumb" game, now that the media will be blathering about that too.

I think he started off with more of a "kill the shopper" theme. And it seems to have worked; there's been a drastic reduction in shopping in the areas affected.

Obviously he's also making the police, and now the army with their spy plane, look like idiots.


Why does it not surprise me that these themes of media, consumerism, and bloated military seem to be (albeit indirectly) targetted by this sniper?
posted by zekinskia at 3:14 PM on October 22, 2002

God wants to make himself known, so he may be in there somewhere, if anyone has the patience to look. I wonder if the police are following that sort of lead.

That's an interesting point. This fella could have a whole website with his manifesto and everything -- on a Geocities account, of course. But even with Google, it can be quite difficult to tie an online identity to a real human being.
posted by oissubke at 3:17 PM on October 22, 2002

Even that may be a needle in a haystack, oissubke.

site:geocities.com "i am god" still nets 3210 hits.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 3:21 PM on October 22, 2002

Just a few days ago, when someone on the news was speculating that increased police presence had driven the sniper away from Montgomery County, I thought, "Great, the next shooting will be back in my neighborhood." (I live in Aspen Hill.)

I don't mind being stuck in roadblocks on the way to work, but I do wonder if the police seriously think that they're going to catch the sniper with one -- I mean, he's got to know that they're going to block off the roads. What makes them think he's not just going to hang out in the neighborhood for a while?
posted by amarynth at 3:29 PM on October 22, 2002

This wouldn't work, because it's fairly easy to make your own ammunition.

Hm wow hadn't even thought of that, very good point. But you could also eventually start making guns that wouldn't fire unless they had registered bullets. I'm thinking RFID smart chips in every bullet eventually with guns that ping a server every time they are fired with what they are firing. I know, probably a fantasy but one I would love to see us moving towards. With controls like this in place, gun manufacturers could be regulated. Some classes of automatic weapons are already unlawful, why not make smart guns and require them to be the only legal guns. Triggers with biometric fingerprint ID systems. The works.


The tobacco industry is starting through lawsuits to face the consequences of the costs to society of their products, perhaps the gun industry will end up with the same kind of mess on their hands?
posted by mikojava at 3:32 PM on October 22, 2002

re: the geocities search ...
it can't be it, but this geocities page is pretty darn creepy ....
posted by aquafiend at 3:36 PM on October 22, 2002

I'm not sure what scares me more, mikojava, criminals with guns, or the NRA/gov/regulating authority X knowing when, where, and with what caliber I prefer to shoot skeet (clay pigeons).
posted by maniactown at 3:41 PM on October 22, 2002

maybe the sniper is reading this thread!

just a thought.
posted by asok at 3:44 PM on October 22, 2002

I was stopped in four separate roadblocks this morning, as I left Laurel and tried - unsucessfully - to get to Bethesda. It was 6:45 AM - less than an hour after the incident. Police with guns drawn had the area locked down as far away as I live: 15 miles from the shooting. At that time of day, it's normally about a 40 minute ride to Aspen Hill, or to Bethesda. The guy could have left Aspen Hill and been just about anywhere in 40 minutes. He could have been sitting at the Double T Diner on Rt 40, having coffee and watching the news. The roadblocks were questionably effective. The traffic snarls kept me from my work, and gave me a sniper "snow day." Too bad, because my company had arranged with our Human Resources Department to conduct seminars today for all our employees on "Living Under Code Blue Lockdown - How To Manage Stress." Yeah, right. Any "real" terrorists watching this unfold are getting a tutorial on how to shut down the Nation's Capital.
posted by Corky at 3:50 PM on October 22, 2002

People who think that guns ensure democracy scare me.
posted by goethean at 3:50 PM on October 22, 2002

maybe the sniper is reading this thread!

Maybe...but I doubt He will comment.
posted by Danelope at 3:52 PM on October 22, 2002

People who think that guns ensure democracy scare me.

People who think an unarmed populace ensures democracy scare me. To each his own.
posted by oissubke at 4:04 PM on October 22, 2002

mikojava, then you get to the issue that it's not particularly hard to make a gun that can shoot at 40 yards with reasonable accuracy. what do you do at that point?

I think the best thing that the United States could do to help reduce gun-related problems would be to adopt Canadian-Style education requirements on gun licenses.
posted by mosch at 4:06 PM on October 22, 2002

Wait....are we going to have another 'guns don't shoot people, Americans shoot people' argument. If so, can you just give me a moment to strap myself in.
posted by Jofus at 4:12 PM on October 22, 2002

He may not need to get out of the crime scene fast, if he blends in with the expected crowd. Observe. Observe.
posted by azul at 4:21 PM on October 22, 2002

OK, what does that "electronically" shit mean? I'm really confused. Is he trying to get money transferred to a Swiss bank account, or is he on the same tack as that guy who shot up the entrance to the House side of the Capitol a few years ago?
posted by GriffX at 4:36 PM on October 22, 2002

People who think that guns ensure democracy scare me.

People who think gun control ensures safety scare me. Oh, and they scare Benjamin Franklin too. While I have no problem with assault rifle bans, and waiting periods, I can't honestly think of a type of gun control, that could have made things even slightly more difficult for the sniper.
posted by Beholder at 4:37 PM on October 22, 2002

god damn, we're talking about snipers here, not guns. stay on topic!
posted by tolkhan at 4:43 PM on October 22, 2002

So, aside from quoting statistics about the likelyhood of becoming the sniper's next victim (vs getting struck by lightning, or hit by a Metrobus, say) what are we supposed to do/feel/think? All of the media speculation is sickening me. And, if this guy is feeding off the attention, which is so apparent, part of me says that the talking heads ought to just shut the f*ck up. But, what then? I'm not coping with this all that well myself, and I can't even imagine what it must be like for parents, after hearing the message this creep left in his letter. Today, CNN had to apologize for blurting out the news that the victim had died before all of the family members reached the hospital. I am tired of being an involuntary extra in what feels like a bad episode of "Cops."
posted by Corky at 5:20 PM on October 22, 2002

FUCK THE SNIPER

i feel better now

don't blame the media for telling you what you want to know

the media is doing what the media does. it isn't shooting anyone. and to suggest tv reporters, as dumb as they are, deserve to be targets, is inhuman. don't sink to the level of the killer.
posted by Slagman at 6:09 PM on October 22, 2002

People who think that guns ensure democracy scare me.

Guns don't ensure democracy, of course. What they were supposed to ensure was that the power of the state wouldn't be overwhelmingly overpowering compared to the power of the people -- and give the individual means to defend himself from a variety threats the state can't protect him from.

The first one is all but a lost cause: the state has an awful lot of firepower that citizens simply can't match. Anything but the largest citizen rebellion would fail. The second one is still within reach, within reason. No reason to take it away.
posted by namespan at 6:13 PM on October 22, 2002

god damn, we're talking about snipers here, not guns. stay on topic!

so funny, so very very hilarious, thanks for that!
posted by yonderboy at 6:22 PM on October 22, 2002

To enter a contrarian note or two, I'm not sure it's entirely bad that the sniper is changing his MO, whether or not it's due to media coverage or law enforcement actions. If he has to change, he has to operate outside his comfort zone. If he has to operate outside his comfort zone, he's more likely to make mistakes. If he changes his schedule, somebody could notice that. (I suspect that the return to Montgomery Co. indicates he has some kind of employment or other obligation.) If he moves to a new city, somebody will notice an out of place vehicle.

Regarding victim identification, I've been pleasantly astonished that Saturday's victim has remained anonymous for so long. That can't last much longer, but supposedly their lawyer was to make a statement today anyway.

As for bullet databases ... sheesh. Just fingerprinting guns is supposed to cost tens, even hundreds, of millions. How much money do we have, anyway? And all this for something that is easily bypassed by simple hardware modifications, or frustrated entirely in the case of gun theft and illegal sales.
posted by dhartung at 6:34 PM on October 22, 2002

would be to adopt Canadian-Style education requirements on gun licenses

Just don't, for heaven's sake, adopt Canadian-style registration. What an expensive, ineffective boondoggle.

And this is said by a fellow who doesn't own a gun, wishes there were fewer guns, etc.
posted by five fresh fish at 6:59 PM on October 22, 2002

(minor derail)

stupidsexyFlanders, just wanted to say that seeing your handle (name) made me laugh...since I moved to a Simpsons-less town two months ago, I have seen only (gasp) ONE episode during a regular Sunday night Fox airing. Seeing your name brought back some wonderful Simpsons memories, with Flanders wiggling his skiiing-butt in Homer's thought-bubble...

(end minor derail)
posted by davidmsc at 7:17 PM on October 22, 2002

"I have no idea," [Former FBI profiler] Ressler said. "I don't know what this guy is thinking."

My wavering faith in the FBI's profiling capability has been renewed.
posted by iamck at 8:08 PM on October 22, 2002

Shopping for Sniper Rifles
posted by homunculus at 10:08 PM on October 22, 2002

Did anybody see Jimmy Breslin commenting on News Night with Aaron Brown (CNN) tonight? Breslin basically said that the police are doing a lousy job of finding the sniper, and that the media ought to push them hard to expend more "shoe leather" and do a better job. He also said it was incomprehensible that the police were not releasing the sniper's letter and other information they had--since releasing it would increase likelihood that somebody, somewhere, would recognize something that could help lead to the killer.
posted by Rebis at 10:56 PM on October 22, 2002

A clear point being made by several pundits by now is that they're having to make this up as they go along; not only are the basic templates (serial killer, spree killer) rare, but the unique features of this one have hardly ever been seen, and certainly not in a 24/7 cable-internet news environment. This particular group of cops was burned more than once in the preceding weeks by uncontrolled disclosures, so they've retreated to a firm, conservative approach to release of information -- and probably overshot their mark in holding back the postscript about kids-not-safe. With dozens of overlapping jurisdictions -- local, state, federal -- it's a wonder the entire effort has remained as focused as it has. It's hard to seriously fault the police, given there is no guarantee that any method would allow them to solve such an unusual series of murders. Zodiac, one will recall, got away with it.

The strangeness that is striking me today is how he would threaten children, then return to his MO of shooting adults in quotidian situations. That tells me he is struggling with just the one shooting of a 13-year-old, by comparison with the several of grown-ups.
posted by dhartung at 12:59 AM on October 23, 2002

So, I guess posting everyone's choice in "Sniper Pool (Which county is next?)" wouldn't be such a good idea.
posted by mischief at 4:16 AM on October 23, 2002

I understand the sniper hasn't shot any tv news reporters yet...

...or any cops.
posted by mischief at 4:46 AM on October 23, 2002

OK last time...

Canadian Population: 31,081,900
Number of gun related deaths (2001): 171
Number of all homicides: 554
(Source: Statistics Canada http://www.statscan.ca)


US Population: 288,342,031
Number of gun related deaths(1999): 10,118
Sources: http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide/homtrnd.htm
http://www.census.gov/population/www/index.html

What does this mean?
Well I suck at math apparently, someone else can figure it out, but I think the facts speak for themselves.

If you divide the US numbers by 10 to come close to the Canadian ones, then it's even more obvious.
posted by CrazyJub at 6:53 AM on October 23, 2002

Speaking of (worldwide) media exposure... possible copycat, in Turkey, of all places, with a pellet gun...
posted by talos at 7:14 AM on October 23, 2002

G.K. Chesterton's quote about Einstein ought to be applied to Heisenberg as well: "Suppose everyone was instantly fined a small sum for mentioning the name of Einstein. The money would be refunded if he could afterwards demonstrate, to a committee of mathematicians and astronomers, that he knew anything about Einstein."

I think the name you're looking for is Hawthorne.

Hawthorne Effect - A distortion of research results caused by the response of subjects to the special attention they receive from researchers.
posted by straight at 7:56 AM on October 23, 2002

CrazyJub: It's obvious you left out total homocides for the US. What are you concealing?
posted by mischief at 8:13 AM on October 23, 2002