Denison, Kiers and West (2003) - Darwinian agriculture: When can humans find solutions beyond the reach of natural selection? Quarterly Review of Biology, 78 (2) 145-168The authors make a pursuasive argument that little can be gained, certainly within the next 20 years, in terms of overall food production by genetic modification. There is potential for introducing pest resistance, but all those soultions are short term - different cropping systems may be just as good. There is potential for modification of flavours etc. But there is almost no potential for increased productivity - tradeoffs with natural selection for individual competitiveness have made this a dead end path. The only possible way of dramatically increasing production with GM is by truly novel, macro-scale genetic modification. Converting C3 plants to C4 plants. Introducing nitrogen fixation in the absence of symbiotic bacteria. All these developments are unforseeable in the next few decades.
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posted by solistrato at 12:59 PM on June 24, 2003