How the Poll Results on Iraq Were Manipulated

October 23, 2003 8:25 AM

How the Poll Results on Iraq Were Manipulated by James Zogby, Special to Arab News - ...In fact, Zogby International in Iraq had conducted the poll, and the American Enterprise Institute did publish their interpretation of the findings. But the AEI’s "spin" and the vice president’s use of their "spin" created a faulty impression of the poll’s results and, therefore, of the attitudes of the Iraqi people. Consider some of the other poll findings: Over 55 percent give a negative rating to "how the US military is dealing with Iraqi civilians." Only 20 percent gave the US military a positive rating... When asked whom they preferred to "provide security and restore order in their country," only 6.5 percent said the US...
posted by y2karl (16 comments total)

When asked how they would describe the attacks on the US military, 49 percent described them as "resistance operations." Only 29 percent saw them as attacks by "Baath loyalists."
posted by y2karl at 8:30 AM on October 23, 2003

I know this sounds odd coming from me, but a 20% positive opinion amongst the populace for what is effectively an occupying army is surprisingly high, I'd say.

Certainly not 'liberators and bringers of freedom' high, but pretty damn high nonetheless.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 8:34 AM on October 23, 2003

When asked whom they preferred to "provide security and restore order in their country," only 6.5 percent said the US.

"Excuse me sir, but which country would you prefer to have sacrifice the lives of their children to save your butt from the psychotic dictator who had been pillaging your country?"

And we (the U.S.... get over it) care about the results of this poll because?
posted by cmdnc0 at 8:49 AM on October 23, 2003

I know this sounds odd coming from me, but a 20% positive opinion amongst the populace for what is effectively an occupying army is surprisingly high, I'd say.

Considering that one of the four citys where the survey was conducted was majority Kurdish Kirkuk makes that number less notable.
posted by y2karl at 8:57 AM on October 23, 2003

cmdnc0: Because a group with a higher approval rating might get shot at less. If a United Nations group is preferred, it might also mean that some US troops could leave the area.
posted by mikeh at 9:37 AM on October 23, 2003

what mikeh said.
posted by amberglow at 10:08 AM on October 23, 2003

Before rushing to judgement, note this from Zogby: ..."These are just a few questions asked in Zogby International's first scientific poll of current Iraqi public opinion. This groundbreaking survey reaches directly to the Iraqi people and the results are astounding.

The survey reveals that 69.7% of Iraqis feel that their country will be better five years from now. See the charts below for details." http://www.inminds.co.uk/mohaiseh/1022.html

and note this:"Dr. James Zogby, founder of the Arab American Institute, will be online Thursday, May 2 at 1 p.m EDT to discuss the end of the siege on Arafat's Ramallah compound and the likely next steps for Palestinian-Israeli relations. "

Unless I am totally off base I believe there are more than one "Zogby"--one is the pollster, anpother the very pro-Arab writer; and another one, oddly, who runs a right of center blog and has this to say about Iraq: "By investing in a free Iraq, the nations of the world can show that they stand by and support this formerly imprisoned nation. Will they step up to the plate in Madrid next week? If they don't, these governments will be an embarrassment to themselves and their people. Regardless of how nations feel about the US lead war against Saddam, they should put those feelings behind them and support the building of the only democracy in the Middle East." from his blog: http://www.zogbyblog.com/

In other words, careful when using the name Zogby
posted by Postroad at 11:16 AM on October 23, 2003

oh man. i hope this is the pollster Zogby. that would be too classic.

Cheney: "Here's what the poll says"

Zogby: "Sorry, jackass. I own that poll. Here's what it says in reality."

(of course, the pollster would never do that, or else he's suddenly out of a big fat U.S. contract)

this poll is another great example of the Bush aministration's faith-based intelligence gathering. use the stuff that supports your case (and spin the results to make it sound even better), and ignore the bad stuff.

not surprisingly, a lot of the facts (i haven't completely checked them, but they ring true so far) in this article about the poll were not included in any of the mainstream news reports about it. weak reporting elsewhere on this poll.

cmdnc0, the U.S. should definitely care about the opinions and mindset of Iraqi civilians. if we did, we'd probably have a lot more success there. if you're saying that polls are an incredibly inaccurate way of collecting that information, i'm with you.
posted by mrgrimm at 11:44 AM on October 23, 2003

The survey reveals that 69.7% of Iraqis feel that their country will be better five years from now

Considering how bad things are in Iraq right now for the Iraqi people, that's not saying much.
posted by jpoulos at 11:44 AM on October 23, 2003

This isn't about whether or not approval ratings matter, it's how this guy's research was misrepresented.

This is newsworthy because it is the same guy that the Bush admin used to support their claims. Looks like the old adage is true, that you can say anything with statistics (even the administration).
posted by mathowie at 12:26 PM on October 23, 2003

John and James are brothers. John is the pollster. James is the one who wrote the article.
posted by CunningLinguist at 12:26 PM on October 23, 2003

PDFs of the poll results in question can be found here. The last poll results James Zogby mentions, about US military approval, Arab forces, attacks against Americans etc. are either form a different poll or not even mentioned as questions in either the summary or the analytic cross-tabulations by demographic variable.
I've mentioned this in a previous thread but excuse me if I feel a little vindicated about the AEM's/Opinion Journal's dizzying spin on the poll's numbers...
posted by talos at 2:10 PM on October 23, 2003

thanks for the great link, CL. very interesting brothers.
posted by mrgrimm at 2:42 PM on October 23, 2003

John and James are brothers. John is the pollster. James is the one who wrote the article.

" ...Additionally, to as an effort to increase the company's management and analytical capabilities, John Zogby has brought on his brother - Arab-American Institute President James Zogby - onboard as an advisor.

While the addition of James Zogby solidifies the firm's management structure, it is also a savvy marketing move. Much more politically active and the beneficiary of the resultant publicity, James Zogby writes a syndicated column that appears regularly in major Middle Eastern media. Additionally, from his base in Washington, D.C., James Zogby has greater access to influential Arabs and Arab-Americans than his brother in Utica, N.Y."

What Arabs Think: Values, Beliefs and Concerns was authored by James J. Zogby and sold by Zogby International demonstrates an explicit official connection from October, 2002. James is not John but it would seem them apples land land side by side in their fall from the fraternal tree--but I suspect, that for professional reasons alone, John Zogby is in no position to make any public political commentary at all. Additionally, if Zogby Poll is selling it's complete set of raw data from the Iraq survey sells for $600 a copy, one might surmise that not all the questions asked or answers given have not been made public.

Given his relationship with Zogby International, I doubt that what James Zogby wrote is any factual distortion of what John Zogby polled, plus one can safely surmise he knows whereof he speaks.
posted by y2karl at 6:35 PM on October 23, 2003

Rough guess, 90% of Americans think that America will be a better plae to live in in 5 years.
posted by twine42 at 6:17 AM on October 24, 2003

Just for the Zogby hair splitters:

Mr. Cheney has cited a Zogby International poll to back his claim that there is "very positive news" in Iraq. But the pollster, John Zogby, told me, "I was floored to see the spin that was put on it; some of the numbers were not my numbers at all."

Mr. Cheney claimed that Iraqis chose the U.S. as their model for democracy "hands down," and he and other officials say that a majority want American troops to stay at least another year. In fact, Mr. Zogby said, only 23 percent favor the U.S. democratic model, and 65 percent want the U.S. to leave in a year or less.

"I am not willing to say they lied," Mr. Zogby said. "But they used a very tight process of selective screening, and when they didn't get what they wanted they were willing to manufacture some results. . . . There was almost nothing in that poll to give them comfort."
posted by y2karl at 9:43 AM on November 5, 2003