You heard it here first.

July 14, 2004 9:36 PM

Cheney not to run again. Rumours have been flying on the net for hours and now Drudge has it. Interesting development, if true...
posted by lupus_yonderboy (84 comments total)

Aha, here's the New York Times story, before it even appears on the Times site, courtesy of freerepublic.com.
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 9:42 PM on July 14, 2004

BUSH TO DROP CHENEY GOSSIP

The NYT story tomorrow, if Drudge is right about it (and he probably is) is still just rumors among Dems of Cheney leaving the ticket. This isn't a scoop. Not yet.

I also don't think it will happen (Cheney leaving the ticket), although I'd be happy if he did. I don't think it will help Bush much, if at all, but on the off-chance Bush gets re-elected, it'd sure help the country.

On Preview: Okay, I'll read the freeper story (as much as I hate going there).
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 9:45 PM on July 14, 2004

After reading the story...it's just the same ole stuff, really, that's been going around for awhile. Dems and liberals (I'm both) are simultaneously delighted and afraid of Cheney leaving the ticket. That makes it great fodder for rumors. I still think there's effectively zero chance of this happening. I mean much less than in the case of any other VP incumbent in modern times (who's not Spiro Agnew).
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 9:48 PM on July 14, 2004

Yes, it's "rumours" (Dems *and* Repigs though) but considering the Times' role as "mouthpiece for the administration's rumours" before the Iraq war, I'd give it a fairly high change of being true (double digits?)
posted by lupus_yonderboy at 9:51 PM on July 14, 2004

He's well known to be a liability to the ticket, and, basically, why the hell not? "His health ... wants to spend more time with his family ... blah blah blah."
posted by lbergstr at 9:55 PM on July 14, 2004

Two words:

John McCain

This could be bad for the Democrats.
posted by tcobretti at 10:02 PM on July 14, 2004

Anyone that isn't Cheney is probably bad. Powell, McCain, and/or Rice would be great replacements. I hope it isn't true. Get well soon Dick!
posted by mathowie at 10:08 PM on July 14, 2004

Two words:
John McCain

If the re-election of a sitting pres is "all about his preformance in his 1st term", exactly how is Mr. McCain gonna make the 2nd term "better"?

If McCain wants the #1 job at some date in the future, why would he want the #2 job now? I don't think the odds are in favor of 3 consecutive terms of a Republicrat as El Jefe.
posted by rough ashlar at 10:10 PM on July 14, 2004

It'd suck to be proven wrong (because it would generally be bad for everyone) but I'll be happy to admit it if it turns out that Cheney hasn't been the driving force behind much/most of what's really bad in this admin. That is to say, a Bush/McCain ticket could likely beat Kerry/Edwards; but I, for one, believe that although bad, the resulting admin would be much better than the current one. So, short of a Kerry/Edwards victory, a Bush/McCain win is vastly preferable to me than a Bush/Cheney win.

But McCain won't run for VP under Bush. No way, no how. He's said so, too. Not to mention the very bad blood between them.

I've thought it was plausible that Cheney could drop off the ticket with the health excuse. It is plausible. But there's a bunch of reasons to believe that it won't happen. First and foremost, this is the Cheney presidency, not the Bush presidency. (This excludes the slim possibility of Chief of Staff Cheney or something like that.) Secondly, whether or not he's been calling the shots, it's also the case that Rice is leaving. Unless a Cheney ally is taking her place (which is very possible), I can't see Cheney leaving at the same time Rice does. Although, true, Rummie is staying and Powell is also leaving. I also don't think that Bush would let Cheney quit, either. I don't think he knows what he would do without him.

It's not gonna happen. I could be wrong—I could always be wrong—but I'd bet money (if I had any) that I'm not.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 10:13 PM on July 14, 2004

The major reason why Dick might not leave is that Bush tends to stick with a decision regardless of how right or wrong it is, as it seems that he thinks changing your mind is a sign of weekness. Of course, Dick Cheney's heart condition gives the campaign an easy out.
posted by drezdn at 10:13 PM on July 14, 2004

could be bad for the Democrats.


Na...Bush and Cheney stepped down, and the GOP nominated McCain...then the dems would be in trouble.

Bush, I believe, is more of a liability than McCain would be a benefit...at least to many moderates.

Also, I can't believe that McCain would join the religious loons that are the current administration. I mean, he's a rational, well educated, well spoken, intelligent man. Why on earth would he want to sully himself with the disaster that is the Bush² legacy.

He wants to run for President in the future. I don't think he want's to do it as Bush's heir.
posted by dejah420 at 10:15 PM on July 14, 2004

I didn't read McCain's last book, but I read excerpts. He said some incredibly strongly-worded things about the Bush folks and, especially, the religious right. (The NC thing really, really, really pissed him off.) In that context, it's hard for me to believe that it's even remotely possible he'd join the Bush admin. I think in writing that book he was symbolically saying goodbye to his higher political ambitions.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 10:18 PM on July 14, 2004

Definately Ditka
posted by tsarfan at 10:23 PM on July 14, 2004

Limb, saw, me;

Cheney is NOT leaving.

Who, pray tell, is the eminence grise behind the war, etc.?

So, therefore, if he whupped W into a war the boy wanted t begin with, and is the most powerful veep of all time, and is, factually, the grownup that tells W what to do: Why wh=ould he step down?

Power is about getting and keeping power. He's not leaving, until we vote him out (and maybe, not even then).
posted by mwhybark at 10:25 PM on July 14, 2004

There goes the last molecule of Matt Drudge's credibility.
posted by PrinceValium at 10:28 PM on July 14, 2004

McCain is not some moderate, he is ultra-conservative.

I'd love to see him run and see his own voting record tear his
"everyman moderate" PR apart.

Its well known that McCain hates the Bush-arm of the GOP. There are other candidates out there and dropping Cheney this late in the game is going to be a big sign to the voters saying "We ain't got nuthin'"

Hey, Ditka isn't running for Senate, maybe Bush can pick him up and play up the celebrity card. Anything to stay off the issues and the war for another news cycle, eh Mr. Rove?
posted by skallas at 10:36 PM on July 14, 2004

If McCain were to join the ticket, everything that's been said and done between the two is back on the front page in a big way. The vicious, contemptible lies of the primary campaign get played and replayed, trotted out on the Sunday morning talk shows over and over again. True, Bush and Rove themselves will probably weasel out of direct responsibility for them (god knows they're good at that and the press always plays along), but it'll be ugly for them and leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth -- even, one hopes, the more decent type of Republicans.

McCain isn't part of the Bush team -- any more than Powell was, which is why the latter has been shut out of the inner circle and simply milked for his cred. McCain should be smart enough to know that if he somehow ended up as veep he'd have no power and no say, but he would end up holding the bag if and when the Bush admin implodes in a (please, no) second term, and his career would be finished.
posted by George_Spiggott at 10:51 PM on July 14, 2004

I'd be very surprised indeed if McCain were to run with Bush. That wouldn't be so much a boon for Bush as a huge step-down for McCain (aka the Colin Powell syndrome).

Let's remember that it was Cheney who started the drums of war against Iraq. Some people say that it was he who forced the whole administration to go that route, and frankly it's not very hard at all to believe.
posted by clevershark at 11:02 PM on July 14, 2004

he would end up holding the bag if and when the Bush admin implodes in a (please, no) second term

Hell, if the Bush admin gets a second term, John McCain's career will assuredly be the least thing on anyone's mind. Including John McCain's.
posted by clevershark at 11:08 PM on July 14, 2004

Maybe Bush will ask Hillary Clinton to be VP *snort*
posted by falconred at 11:23 PM on July 14, 2004

Two words:
John McCain

I thought you were going to make a reference about the media making up its own stories, like McCain being Veep for Kerry.

If Bush the First kept with Quayle, and 'steady leadership' is supposed to be the hallmark of Bush the Second, I give this story an absurdly small chance of bearing fruit in reality.

I think this kind of hypothesizing is the equivalent of playing the lottery amongst journalists.
What if? What If? WHAT IF?

What if in-depth reporting was carried out on accusations from both sides in this election cycle, with analyses on who's talking out their ass the least?
posted by Busithoth at 11:24 PM on July 14, 2004

The truth is that The New York Times article alluded to in the Drudge Report pretty much just repeats what the rest of us have all been speculating for months. Except that we're not congressmen and Elisabeth Bumiller never reported on our personal speculations in the NYT.

Sure, some guy who represents the nth congressional district of Oregon thinks that Cheney's going to be dropped. So did plenty of people here on MeFi. It might even be a good strategy for the Bush campaign. That doesn't mean it's going to happen or that it's even more likely to happen than it was six months ago.
posted by deanc at 11:24 PM on July 14, 2004

This is indeed bad for the Democrats (and the country). What running mate could possibly be worse than Cheney? He's got zero charisma, no targeted electoral pull, lots of dirty corporate connections to Iraq, and a heart condition.

He "looks like death" as a friend of mine said, he's a loser, and I don't blame the people who pull the Bush strings for dumping him (if they do). How could they possibly do worse? McCain is never going to happen, but lots of other possibilities might serve the cabal well.
posted by scarabic at 11:45 PM on July 14, 2004

So between the messages in this thread and the Chance the Gardener thread, I'm developing the impression that maybe Georgie isn't to blame for all America's problems: he's merely been a puppet of the powers behind the throne all this time, a daft and confused character manipulated into power and not quite understanding how it all came to be...
posted by five fresh fish at 11:48 PM on July 14, 2004

The problem they'd have with replacing Cheney with McCain or Giuliani is that they lose votes on the right as they picked them up on the left. The more conservative Republicans are already complaining about being locked in the basement like a redheaded stepchild during the convention.

McCain was one of six GOP senators that voted against the anti-gay marriage amendment today, within a couple of days of Bush making it a campaign issue. It doesn't sound like he's angling for the job.

The longer they wait, the more blatantly it looks like they dumped him for political reasons (which is what it would be).
posted by kirkaracha at 11:50 PM on July 14, 2004

IF anything, it's Cheney's idea. He knows he can still wield influence, and that the polls aren't looking good. All Bush has to do is get a reasonably reasonable person to be his running mate, and he has the election sewn up, and Cheney still has some control (possible replacement for Rumsfeld?). It's a smart move.
posted by cell divide at 12:00 AM on July 15, 2004

fff: I think that's pretty close to the truth. It's not a defense of Bush. It's long seemed strange to me that some people, like yourself, seem to respond to this view as if it were some sort of defense of Bush. I personally can't stand Bush and have no reason to defend him in any way. I just think this scenario fits the available evidence better than anything else does. Bush may or may not be dumb, but he's not thoughtful and he's not informed, either. We do know he places a great deal in his personal assessments of people and personal loyalty. This admin's policies are almost incoherent in most respects, the Iraq war was, too. This is the mark of either a very confused President (definitely a possibility) or a President who's not really in control. I think it's the latter. Bush thinks he's in control, and in many ways he is. I think the folks, particularly Cheney, who try to control him have to be somewhat subtle about it. I don't think Bush directly takes orders from Cheney. Effectively, though, I think he does.

But I see reponses like yours all the time. They're part baffling and part annoying—the implication (or explicit accusation) is that saying that Bush is more a puppet than the true power exonerates him, or defends him, or...I dunno. Something. It doesn't though. I mean, sure, I reserve my deepest hatred for the deliberately malevolent (or deludedly malevolent), and I think Cheney is one of those. But Bush is, if nothing else, criminally imcompetent and complicit.

As Brad DeLong continues to wonder, where's the grownups in the Republican party? Well, they do exist; they have a marginal presence in this admin. (Powell is one of them.) Cheney is, I think, the prime obstacle in the way of that crowd having any influence with this president. Cheney out of the way could mean a big difference in policy. Bush would think he's not changed and is being consistent because, hell, the man lives in his own fantasy world anyway. He'd sign-off on some Baker plan and know that, once again, his judgment was right and sure.

Oh, I don't think Bush is daft and confused in the sense that you mock. He very much has wanted to be President, and he very much believes in his own judgment. He's just so unselfaware that he doesn't realize that most of his judgments aren't actually his own. And they're shallow, anyway.
posted by Ethereal Bligh at 12:11 AM on July 15, 2004

Republican dream ticket!

Bush/Schwarzenegger

There is a little law in the way that says that only natural-born Americans at least 35 years old who have lived in the country for 14 years can serve as president or vice president.

My bet is Bush/Powell
posted by thedailygrowl at 12:13 AM on July 15, 2004

(re: Pres. Bush) Goldberg used his surname as a sexual reference.

They fired Whoopi Goldberg for that?!?
posted by swell at 12:23 AM on July 15, 2004

Drudge's motus operandi is that he prints any piece of unsubstantiated crap that comes across his desk. His claim to fame is that one of his crappy stories happenned to be true.
posted by insomnia_lj at 12:24 AM on July 15, 2004

If it's going to be anyone, it'll be Condoleeza Rice.

And may god have mercy on us all if that happens.
posted by interrobang at 12:25 AM on July 15, 2004

he's merely been a puppet of the powers behind the throne all this time

Duh. You buy this "most controversial president in recent years" bullcrap? I don't think so. What makes him so aggravating is the impunity with which he acts, a state of mind that can only be achieved by tossing out the whole "American people" garbage (except when on-camera) and serving one's masters' interests. The man sleeps well at night, but not because he believes in what he's doing, rather, that he knows who his daddy is (literally and figuratively).

Now watch this drive.
did anyone say "good shot?"
posted by scarabic at 12:39 AM on July 15, 2004

If Bush does dump Cheney, he'd be wise not to announce his new running mate for a little while, just to steal the media eye away from Kerry/Edwards. Reporters love a good mystery and they'll keep their eye on Bush while he deliberates. They can milk 10 "who will it be?" stories for the price of one "oh, it's him" story.

/armchair campaign chief
posted by scarabic at 1:01 AM on July 15, 2004

Bush/Schwarzenegger

Arnold vs. Bush
posted by homunculus at 1:14 AM on July 15, 2004

Tucker Carlson was hammering Carville on Crossfire today (I don't watch that show regularly. No, seriously. I don't even have cable at home.) about the dems not putting a woman or a minority on as veep. Would it be entering tinfoil terretory to wonder if he's privy to some speculation about a Rice ticket?
posted by Tlogmer at 1:22 AM on July 15, 2004

Just recently Drudge was sure Hillary would be Kerry's veep.
posted by lathrop at 1:36 AM on July 15, 2004

*reads article* Ah, Carlson was just following the speculation like we are (only earlier) and hedging his bets; this one could pay off hugely. Plus, it makes Carville uncomfortable.
posted by Tlogmer at 1:40 AM on July 15, 2004

Without Cheney, my white-hot-heat-of-a-thousand-suns hatred would be reduced to a weedy dribble of scornful pity. That wouldn't be much fun!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 2:35 AM on July 15, 2004

ethereal bligh: It's not gonna happen. I could be wrong—I could always be wrong

True. But you'd never admit it.
posted by Mayor Curley at 3:18 AM on July 15, 2004

I read on the DailyKos about a week ago a clever idea for Kerry. Since Cheney is quite unpopular, and any replacement is sure to improve Bush's numbers, Kos suggested that Kerry should demand that Bush drop Cheney from the ticket (for any number of scandals that he's currently at the center of). If Kerry does so, it would make it damn near impossible for Bush to drop him because it would look like he was doing bowing to Kerry and the DNC. Think Bush could handle that?

Sometimes politics is fun.
posted by sic at 4:15 AM on July 15, 2004

McCain? He's too smart to take the job even if it was offered, even if Karl Rove didn't call his wife a drug addict and imply he had an illegitimate black baby. (for that McCain should have punched him, not be entertaining political offers., but I digress.)

The office of the vice president doesn't have very much official power at all. Cheney took a lot of power because he could, and because he was acting in the manner that Bush's fundraisers wanted. Doing the job everyone knew Bush wasn't capable of. But McCain is dangerous because he has a mind of his own. Bush's fundraisers wouldn't let him actually do anything he wanted to with regards to campaign finance reform or other issues.

Also McCain's very vocal rebuke of the hate amendment, calling it "un-republican" doesn't make it sound like he's ready to jump into an existing administration to take a largely useless position.

Republicans are scared and desparate. Maybe they should ask Mike Ditka if he wants to be vice president.
posted by Space Coyote at 4:27 AM on July 15, 2004

I think Giuliani is more likely than McCain, only because McCain wouldn't take the job. With Giuliani, New York becomes a swing state--which would be huge.
posted by jpoulos at 4:46 AM on July 15, 2004

With Giuliani, New York becomes a swing state--which would be huge.

He's also a pro-choice, pro-gay, adulterous Catholic. It's a good thing the Bush side hasn't made that an issue this year or anything.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 4:53 AM on July 15, 2004

It's not going to be McCain. Ever. At all. It was never going to be McCain for Kerry, and it's never going to be McCain for Bush.

So why does everyone keep talking about freakin' McCain!?
posted by reklaw at 5:00 AM on July 15, 2004

So why does everyone keep talking about freakin' McCain!?

McCain likes it that way :)
posted by Space Coyote at 5:12 AM on July 15, 2004

Edwards has enough in him to tear apart Condi in a debate (what was the title of that report again?), and Powell just strikes me as looking very tired these days.
posted by Space Coyote at 5:16 AM on July 15, 2004

All this useless speculation. And from a sludge link!

What could be better than a Bush/Dick ticket for the GoOPers to defend the bastion of heterosexual bigots? :-)
posted by nofundy at 5:17 AM on July 15, 2004

I'm with sic--Rice most likely, if it happens, and i also think Kerry and Edwards should push the idea of dropping Cheney, just so it doesn't happen.

One interesting bit of gossip i heard was that D'Amato said what he did so that Pataki gets considered, but i think any pro-choice Republican is definitely out, given the unhappiness of the base.
posted by amberglow at 5:33 AM on July 15, 2004

So why does everyone keep talking about freakin' McCain!?

Because the GOP doesn't have anyone else. They're got McCain, Giuliani, and Powell. All of whom serve no portion of the hardcore GOP baseline, and would add to a ticket for nothing other than a win-at-any-cost impulse move. They got a philandering Hollywood liberal to become California's governor. A lifelong Democrat switched sides for three months and became their new New York City mayor. Yesterday, they were trying to get Mike Ditka to run for Senate.

Most of the actual Republicans in this party the GOP is terrified to bring into the national spotlight. I don't even think Zell Miller is speaking in NYC because of the impact of a Democrat being there- I really think it's because they don't have enough Republicans they're willing to put on camera.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 5:34 AM on July 15, 2004

XQUZ is right--if they had balls or cred, they'd put DeLay or Santorum or even Gingrich on the ticket. Or how's this: Bush/Falwell 04 ; >
posted by amberglow at 5:40 AM on July 15, 2004

Bush/DeLay: The All Apocalypse ticket.
posted by psmealey at 5:48 AM on July 15, 2004

If Kerry does so, it would make it damn near impossible for Bush to drop him because it would look like he was doing bowing to Kerry and the DNC.

I think the fact that all this speculation has already been made makes it pretty hard for Cheney to actually be dropped, even if his doctor were to recommend it - it's been predicted as a desperate campaign move, so would certainly look like one if it were done. All the hard line repubs seem to think Cheney is fab (see the freeper comments, eg - also heard this debated on the radio the other day) and continue to say it's just a democratic wet dream. So I also think it's very unlikely. Basically, I think democrats can't see why they wouldn't, but then, we're democrats... it's true some centrist republicans would prefer a different ticket, but switches at this point would just look weak.
posted by mdn at 6:00 AM on July 15, 2004

I think I know why Cheney won't run again.
posted by MsVader at 6:10 AM on July 15, 2004

So why does everyone keep talking about freakin' McCain!?

Ooh, look, shiny!

Wait, what were we talking about?
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 6:27 AM on July 15, 2004

they don't have enough Republicans they're willing to put on camera.

Yeah, these days the Republican Party is looking less and less like a "big tent" and more and more like a "big attic."

However, Cheney is insisting he will remain on the ticket, the WaPo reports. "I'm not dead yet," the Vice President didn't remark.

Meanwhile, Illinois Republicans, in another desperate attempt to find a candidate, are looking at The Nuge. The campaign's slogan will be "The Nuuuuuugggee!!!" Cook County Republican Chair Gary Skoien did not say.

Developing ...
posted by octobersurprise at 6:46 AM on July 15, 2004

What if it's Jeb?
posted by the fire you left me at 6:50 AM on July 15, 2004

God save us from Ted Nugent. Aren't there any emerging GOP stars (or otherwise qualified people) to put into these races, or are should we resign (brace) ourselves for a non stop parade of reactionary pop culture figures bandied about for high public office? Seriously, what's next, a Dr. Laura appointment to the Supreme Court?
posted by psmealey at 6:57 AM on July 15, 2004

Jesse "The Mind"?
posted by dhoyt at 7:12 AM on July 15, 2004

There have been reports that the administration has pressured Pakistan to deliver high value targets, such as Osama or his top lieutenants, during the Democratic convention or the week before. Perhaps this is a sign that Pakistan can not deliver. If Cheney is out, they will probably announce it during the Democratic convention to steal the spotlight from John Kerry.
posted by caddis at 7:23 AM on July 15, 2004

Drudge, NYT, and all the rest are in an endless echo chamber of rumor.

Kinda like the web...
posted by mooncrow at 7:35 AM on July 15, 2004

McCain likes it that way

That cracks me up... I love the guy (though not his politics), but I'll be the first to admit: He does dearly love being talked about.

So, serious options I'm hearing here are:

Rudy G
Condaleeza

Both have major plus/minus issues. The "pro-gay" aldulterous catholic thing is a big hit on Rudy; plus, he's a NYC politician, accustomed to speaking from the hip (it's a required job skill, I have no idea how the hell Mike Bloomberg got that job without it); he couldn't play in national politics without some serious retraining.

Condie has the huge pluses with the conservative right that she's conservative, loyal, and squeaky-clean. But folks, I'm telling you: We're a solid generation away from electing a woman to the VP or Presidency. Powell could break the color barrier, now, I think, but a female VP is the kiss of death.

That's cynicism speaking, of course. I wouldn't give a damn, myself, what the gender was; but I just don't believe that Americans will do it.

On preview: Jeb? Hmm.... that may not be as crazy as it sounds....
posted by lodurr at 7:51 AM on July 15, 2004

XQUZYPHYR has it on the nose. There is just not a credible national candidate who will bring sufficient excitement to the ticket to overshadow the question of why Cheney's really gone. McCain won't take it, Powell won't take it, Schwarzenegger isn't eligible, they're not willing to give it to Giuliani, and Rice comes with a whole mess of problems (her lack of experience on the campaign trail and in elected office, her well-documented incompetence at her job, and nagging rumors about her personal life).

Anyone below that top echelon of GOP stars is a net negative.
posted by Epenthesis at 8:00 AM on July 15, 2004

They're going to dump Cheney, pick up his wife, and grab the gay vote.
posted by callmejay at 8:04 AM on July 15, 2004

I can't believe that Condie's name is being mentioned in the context of even this casual discussion on MeFi. Based on her job performance as National Security Advisor, I have a hard time imagining she'll be re-hired in the event of a Bush victory, let alone have an chance of being asked to run as Veep.

Over the past three years so much of what she was quoted as saying in the press and on the Sunday morning news shows has been demonstrated in recent months as complete and utter bullshit. Either she's a liar or a fool, the head of an organization that was unable to vet the analysis she received from her staffers. In either case, I don't see Rice's name ever being added to some short list of VP candidates.
posted by psmealey at 8:05 AM on July 15, 2004

She won't be re-hired, she's already said she's leaving at the end of the year.
posted by stupidsexyFlanders at 8:31 AM on July 15, 2004

I really think they will dump Cheney for McCain, but I think they had to wheel-and-deal like a lunatic to get McCain to accept. I bet it went something like this, if McCain runs as second to Bush he is (win or lose) guaranteed to get the money and muscle he needs to secure the 2008 Rep nomination. That has got to be a really persuasive negotiating tool, and let's face it, the Democrats cannot top that offer, esp. since Kerry is still eligible in 2008.
When the two of them campaigned together after the Edwards announcement, I don't think that was just a coincidence. (And really, if John McCain didn't even try to negotiate a deal like this, well that would be pretty stupid on his behalf; you don't always get the chance to play both sides against the middle, but when you do, you have officially hit the sweet spot of negotiating. The more you look at it, the more you see that McCain could have anything he wants now - this is his year.)
posted by lilboo at 8:40 AM on July 15, 2004

Two words: Rudy Guiliani
posted by spilon at 8:44 AM on July 15, 2004

If I were a Dem spinmeister, I'd pray for McCain. That would give me so much ammunition. And the beauty part is, none of it would have to be fired directly at McCain. You could just put out a series of question ads that spelled out McCain's positions and his statements about the Bushites and then ask simply:

"What's changed?"

But Rudy is a real risk, I'll agree, much as I cavalierly dismiss him. Again, he opens them to the same charges of inconsistency; but Rudy's a team player, and he'll suck it up and toe the line if he's asked.

But then, he's a serious RINO as far as a lot of the Rep Right is concerned, so I doubt he'd even be seriously considered.

Oddly enough, George Pataki never gets accused of beng a RINO, even though he spends like a drunken sailor. But he's [a LOT] taller than Dubya, so I don't see them standing on the same stage...
posted by lodurr at 8:57 AM on July 15, 2004

The McCain speculation is a little bit ridiculous. Why? Because it's an entirely one-sided deal. Bush would benefit from McCain's presence on the ticket, but where's the benefit for McCain? His chances of getting the '08 nomination are as strong if he stays where he is , and his chances of winning the '08 election itself are stronger if he isn't associated with the polarizing Bush Presidency.

He's got all the crossover appeal one could ask for -- he's not going to blow it all on Bush.
posted by Epenthesis at 9:06 AM on July 15, 2004

thanks, stupidsexyFlanders... I somehow missed that story back in March. I was curious as to why her profile seems to have been toned down a bit (I thought it was the lying), but now it makes sense.

Yeah, Rudy. No chance for the reasons mentioned above. Despite St. Rudy's canonization after 911 (IMO he was the only public figure that actually did demonstrate genuine leadership in its aftermath), he's dirty as hell, scandal-wise, and mistrusted by the GOP base: he endorsed Cuomo over Pataki. Personally, I'll never forget those days when Rudy was having his mistress spend the night in Gracie Mansion, all the press could crow about was what an ambitious shrew his wife was.

This is all so much ado about nothing at any rate. There is no way Cheney will be dropped from the ticket.
posted by psmealey at 9:07 AM on July 15, 2004

Yeah, I agree that cheney won't be dropped.

I'd love to see condi, though. It would nice to see a black person, and a woman on a major party ticket, even is she is a war-mongering neocon bitch.

Condie has the huge pluses with the conservative right that she's conservative, loyal, and squeaky-clean. But folks, I'm telling you: We're a solid generation away from electing a woman to the VP or Presidency. Powell could break the color barrier, now, I think, but a female VP is the kiss of death.

Well, they woudln't win anyway, so what's the diff?
posted by delmoi at 9:38 AM on July 15, 2004

it'll all depend on the poll numbers as we get closer to the GOP convention...Cheney will do what's necessary for them to remain in power. (and McCain and others have to know that there are impeachments and indictments coming, if Bush gets another term, which he won't. We're definitely taking the Senate back.)
posted by amberglow at 9:43 AM on July 15, 2004

Two words.
posted by sklero at 9:55 AM on July 15, 2004

Larry Sabato has an interesting take:

To put it bluntly, Cheney has blown it. One would have expected a classic Washington establishment insider to know how to keep his reputation intact through innumerable controversies--calling the "right" people here, consulting the "wise" men and women of D.C. there, taking the puffed-up press poobahs of the Capital City to lunch at the White House here and there. Anybody recall how Henry Kissinger came out of the Nixon sleaze and the Vietnam disaster smelling like a bouquet of yellow roses--at least with the bunch that counts in D.C. and New York--despite the fact that he was in both situations up to his eyeballs?

Instead of being Kissinger, Cheney has been Nixon in the Bush term. He has hunkered down in the White House and "undisclosed locations." He's been uncommunicative with the broader public and unconcerned about his image until it's too late. He's often appeared to be the sinister puppeteer, pulling Bush's strings on critical matters like Iraq. He's more associated with the Halliburton scandal than anything else in the public mind. And most importantly from a political standpoint, Dick Cheney is now seen as a rigid ideologue, unconcerned about facts that do not fit into his preconceived notions of the world, too closely tied to the far right and too unacceptable to the voters as a whole to be what he once was: workable standby equipment, a potential president who could take office with popular support.

In short, Cheney has failed his president and become a significant liability.

posted by artlung at 10:15 AM on July 15, 2004

All the speculation about a McCain run in 2008 neglects one fact: John McCain will be 72 in 2008 (source)--three years older than Reagan when he first ran. Not saying it makes it impossible for him to get the nomination or win, but it's a significant hurdle to overcome in the minds of the electorate.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 10:39 AM on July 15, 2004

John McCain will be 72 in 2008

Wow, I had no idea he was that old. I guess if I'd done the math I would have figured out that he was older than my parents by about a decade...I guess I just hadn't realized that I was old enough for my parents to be that old. ;)
posted by dejah420 at 10:50 AM on July 15, 2004

not to mention, McCain would get all sort of shit thrown against him in the 2008 GOP primary by the fundy right (the mental health issue, etc), again.
the South Carolina 2000 shameful attacks, anybody?

I doubt he'd be dying to be smeared like that again. and I agree that he'd be too old. McCain hasn't spent his life doing coke and blowing daddy's money in shady, unsucessful businesses -- those hellish years as a POW must have taken a very heavy physical toll on him

I guess I just hadn't realized that I was old enough for my parents to be that old
you'll be forever 29, dejah, do not worry
posted by matteo at 10:56 AM on July 15, 2004

Even more interesting about John McCain: Birthplace: Panama Canal Zone, Panama

Does this qualify him to be VP even? Was this considered U.S. soil?
posted by McBain at 10:58 AM on July 15, 2004

I have this fantasy that at the Republican convention, the delegates will all revolt and choose McCain over Bush/???

See... McCain is actually one of the good guys. While I personally disagree with some of his views, he comes across as very reasonable and not at all corrupt.
posted by ph00dz at 11:36 AM on July 15, 2004

As long as your parents are U.S. citizens, you're considered a natural born citizen, for Presidential eligibility purposes, regardless of where you're born. In McCain's case, the problem is not so much where he was born, as when he was born, as DevilsAdvocate so astutely points out.
posted by stupidsexyFlanders at 11:37 AM on July 15, 2004

What if it's Jeb?

[fights against incipient heart attack by reminding herself she's only 30 and a Canadian]

Best case scenario supposing that Bush wins - probably Colin Powell.

Best case scenario all around - Bush goes with Condi and loses.
posted by orange swan at 11:38 AM on July 15, 2004

In short, Cheney has failed his president and become a significant liability.

Don't you mean Cheney failed as president?
posted by caddis at 12:05 PM on July 15, 2004

Update: Cheney says in C-Span interview to air Sunday he's staying on the ticket. White House spokesman Scott McClellan says so too.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 12:50 PM on July 15, 2004

Good. Last thing we need is another Bob Roberts type sweeping in with some prefab trojan horse of an image and no time to dissect it before the election.
posted by chicobangs at 2:04 PM on July 15, 2004