SubscribeThe debt is relative small by GDP standards, particularly given that we are at war.As a percentage of GDP, this years projection at -4.5% is the highest since 1992 when it was -4.7%. (1) For some background, since the economy turned around after WWII, there have only been five years with a higher percentage of debt to GDP. That's right, since 1948, there have only been five years:
Also, if you don't think federal revenues are actually up since the Bush tax reduction, go wild!Actually, Paris, the revenues are down consistantly since 2000. Here's a list of receipts from the GPO, in millions of dollars.
Yes, he will win, but you will be safe. Happy? That's between you and, perhaps your therapist.Because obviously if anybody else was president they'd have just turned the other cheek at the El Quaida.
Who farted in the potato salad?I don't know, Slagman, but these mashed potatoes are kind of lumpy.
The lowest bounce recorded is that seen for Kerry following this year's Democratic convention. Support for Kerry actually declined by one point among registered voters (and two points among likely voters) over the course of the convention -- a "negative bounce."I have to congratulate you on selectively quoting from the Gallup article you quoted.
Kerry is not the first candidate to experience no boon from his convention. George McGovern saw no change in support for his candidacy spanning the Democratic convention in 1972. Other candidates -- Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole in 1996 -- each received very small bounces of no more than three points
However, the results from Gallup's post-Democratic convention poll showed that history might not apply in 2004, a year in which the electorate was activated long before the conventions (usually the conventions serve to activate voters), and a year in which relatively small proportions of undecided and swing voters are available to the two presidential tickets. Also, the post-Democratic convention poll suggested that the Democratic convention might have helped energize Republican voters. It is unclear whether the Republican convention could have a similar paradoxical effect on Democrats, or if Republicans will be activated, as is typically the case.Since Kerry became the presumtive nominee, there has been little time during which the polls indicated a lead for either candidate of greater than the margin of error. The Gallup polls are national polls, which do not reflect accurately the electoral vote picture. Bush is winning in solid red states by an average margin of 20%. Kerry is winning in solid blue states by a margin of 16%. Many of the "battleground states" are within the margin of error and have changed frequently.
The latest poll, conducted July 26-30, was conducted simultaneously with the convention, though many voters were polled before Mr. Kerry's acceptance speech. Mr. Kerry's slight post-convention boost is what pollster John Zogby said he expected. Only a slim margin of voters is undecided, he says, so the conventions aren't likely to cause major swings of support. "The president will get a small bump but -- like Kerry -- not a big one. There is just not enough give this year," Mr. Zogby says. (1)For a visual representation of the bounce and how Kerry is doing in the "battleground states", take a look at this flash presentation. You will see data current to August 23, with new data likely being added in the next week to measure the RNC effect.
This despite $millions in 527 money from MoveON for celebrity adsAdmitedly, I don't see a lot of ads considering I live in John Kerry's home state, but I do visit MoveOn.org. However, I don't recall seeing a single celebrity ad. Look for yourself.
daily negatgive Metafilter FPPsAs opposed to four days of nearly libelous comments made by speakers at the RNC?
and the big Democrat-leaning media (ala CBS/NYT)Are we forgetting the Republican leaning media? Fox News, MSNBC, CNN and what couldn't pass for journalism in any college seen on nearly every broadcast and cable news station? It's not that most of these shows lean in one direction, as famously as Fox or the NYT, but there has been a systemic failure in news organizations. It's been happening for many years, but that's another conversation entirely.
boosting Kerry an estimated 15 points in the polls?Speaking of organizations who would fail Journalism 101, Media Research Center has to be the worst organization to gather information from. Do a little research, look for original context and you'll come to the same conclusion that many Republicans do about Media Matters. Obviously there is a bias to both sites, but the total lack of context frequently seen on both sites is disgusting.
Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters.They don't describe how they determine if someone is a likely voter, which is critical, considering they removed 20% of the those polled, it's critical. Additionally suspicious is they don't give the percentages of all voters polled.
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posted by Space Coyote at 8:12 PM on September 2, 2004