Comments on: Why the Bear Market is Not Over

Why the Bear Market is Not Over

Kwantsar — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 16:22:12 -0800

Why the Bear Market is Not Over. A PowerPoint presentation from the perpetually pessimistic people at The Prudent Bear.

By: ilsa

ilsa — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 16:49:47 -0800

But it's their job to be perpetually pessimistic. Saying that the folks at Prudent Bear are, well, bearish is like saying that a man waving a gun is looking for trouble. Sometimes your expectations color your perceptions.

By: mediareport

mediareport — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 18:17:40 -0800

See also this uly 2002 post and resulting thread about Prudent Bear and other market skeptics. Simply dismissing Prudent Bear, ilsa, as "perpetually pessimistic" - in the face of continued Enron-style accounting shenanigans and the hilarious "Yay Google!" idiocy of just a few months ago, no less - strikes me as ridiculously close-minded. Prudent Bear has always seemed to me a valuable warning flag amid the insane backscratching that goes on between the banking, investment, technology and media worlds. Only a fool (not the Motley kind) would dismiss them outright. Thanks for the link, Kwantsar, even if it is in hideous PowerPoint form.

By: Mars Saxman

Mars Saxman — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 19:29:42 -0800

was someone claiming that the bear market *was* over?

By: muppetboy

muppetboy — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 19:51:37 -0800

yeah, mars, frankly i've seen no evidence that "the bottom is in". we're probably a couple years from that still. i'm generally staying in cash (and a few put options here and there) until the idiocy finishes shaking out. a lot of people are going to get hurt before this is all over. it's the only way it can end.

By: ilsa

ilsa — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 20:42:44 -0800

(I never said we were in a bull market, just that Prudent Bear's job is to be bearish. Personally I think the markets are going pretty much nowhere for the rest of the year. Up or down 500 Dow points, stuff that used to happen in a couple days. Of course there's money to make if you know what to buy/sell/short and when. And I still don't understand why people are paying this much for Google.)

By: troutfishing

troutfishing — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 21:18:28 -0800

Then, there's the real-estate bubble.

By: muppetboy

muppetboy — Sat, 18 Sep 2004 23:52:41 -0800

This is interesting...

By: stbalbach

stbalbach — Sun, 19 Sep 2004 01:23:37 -0800

I have owned a small position in the Prudent Bear Fund for a number of years as a hedge on other long investments. I believe they are one of the best, if not more interesting market short funds. Not that my approval counts for much since overall I am down on this investment, the market never crashed like was predicted, but it still could (and I hope it doesn't), it is an insurance policy based on real risks in the market.