
High registration figures do not necessarily mean high turnout on election day. People who agree to fill out a form when buttonholed in the street or at home by activists do not always take the trouble to go out to vote. But Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said he expected a better turnout than in the past two elections.source
"The question for the last 20 or 30 years has not been registration but motivation," he said. "And we're probably seeing the most motivation since 1968, with the lightning-rod nature of the Bush presidency ... My expectation of turnout is it will go significantly up to 58% to 60%, 118 million to 121 million voters, from 54% in 2000."
The Democrats are convinced a large turnout will be in Mr Kerry's favour. The party has broken records this year in raising $260m, $180m more than 2000, tapping liberal anger at the Bush administration, and has put much of that windfall into voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts.
"The Democratic base is bigger and in better shape than it's ever been," said Terry McCauliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
"At this time in 2000, we didn't make any calls [to potential voters]. This time, we're making a million calls a week."
Mr McCauliffe said the party, together with liberal activist groups like America Coming Together (ACT), had registered 5 million new voters this year, and claimed that many of them were "under the radar" of the pollsters.
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posted by bitpart at 9:51 PM on October 7, 2004