Bin Laden is in China

October 16, 2004 10:12 AM

Bin Laden is in China -- During the home stretch of the Northamerican elections, Osama bin Laden could prove to be the ace in the sleeve of president Bush. As we speak, Washington is negotiating a highly secretive agreement with Beijing, the Chinese capital, for the eviction of bin Laden from his sanctuary in the turbulent Muslim provinces of China, in the Northwest of the Great Wall nation.
posted by Postroad (70 comments total)

Everyone who didn't see this coming, raise your hand.

Yep, nobody.

Though with five million folks and alot of fanatic devotees in the region, I don't think it will be a simple eviction.
posted by fenriq at 10:33 AM on October 16, 2004

Seems like a reputable source. But then again, I also believe the claims of those twin dwarf real estate investors I saw on TV at 4:30 this morning.

(Not inconceivable, and if this happens I will trust that numeric URL in the future.)
posted by Mayor Curley at 10:37 AM on October 16, 2004

I hope it's not so, but at this point, would it work to get Bush reelected?

Haven't the Republicans themselves spent a year or more reframing it all to be a global thing, and more about Iraq than Osama?
posted by amberglow at 10:39 AM on October 16, 2004

Mayor Curley: Don't be dissin' the dwarf twins, now.
posted by Turtles all the way down at 10:40 AM on October 16, 2004

1. I don't believe it. Possible, but not likely, and if it comes to pass, then I will my (figurative) hat.

2. Numeric URL -- don't know why -- but the domain name is: http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/index.html
posted by davidmsc at 10:42 AM on October 16, 2004

The capture of bin Laden might end up looking bad for both side. For Bush, it will look like a dirty trick. For Kerry it nulls out all the criticism about Bush not taking the capture of bin Laden seriously.
posted by sexymofo at 10:47 AM on October 16, 2004

Bin Laden is in China

or not.
posted by Busithoth at 10:51 AM on October 16, 2004

For Bush, it will look like a dirty trick.

I wonder. The expectation of an October Surprise has been widespread on the internets, but I bet Bin Laden's capture would come as a genuine surprise to a large portion of the electorate.
posted by Turtles all the way down at 10:53 AM on October 16, 2004

Bin Laden is in China

or not.

only bin laden could go to china
posted by lord_wolf at 10:55 AM on October 16, 2004

Last weekend, this crazy guy on a bus I was riding was shouting this to the busdriver (I say shouting because it wasn't that loud in the bus) -- wearing combat boots and a Marines t-shirt, maybe a Gulf War vet...looked unkempt and was VERY EMPHATIC about how bin Laden was being harbored by Chinese Muslims, and how it was going to be hellish to try and get him out of there.

I thought to myself "You know, that makes some sense, except this guy is definitely a little off his rocker, which makes me think conspiracy nut."

Go figure.
posted by ltracey at 10:59 AM on October 16, 2004

If it's on the internets, it must be true.
posted by notme at 11:04 AM on October 16, 2004

Am I the only one who sees this as "CHINA HAS BEEN HARBORING BIN LADEN FOR OVER A YEAR"? It's not going to be easy for Bush to spin China as an "ally against terror."

Civil War in one of China's provinces is a high price for a more favorable relationship with an administration that may not be there for them if the ploy doesn't work. I thought the Chinese Junta was smarter than the American Junta.

On the other hand, getting this rumor out now will not only blunt the "Surprise" but do no good for China's image - and I don't think of Bush's base as being very friendly to China in the first place. And if it's not true, and Bush doesn't deliver up Bin Laden?

Just askin'...
posted by wendell at 11:13 AM on October 16, 2004

omg i just saw bin laden jog past my house.
posted by Krrrlson at 11:22 AM on October 16, 2004

Life is not a chess game.
posted by konolia at 11:22 AM on October 16, 2004

This is more of a C+C Music Factory "Things that Make You Go 'Hmmm'" argument and less a Aristolean syllogism, but look what happened in 2002.
posted by sleslie at 11:25 AM on October 16, 2004

What's really interesting is that half of China is now hiding in a cave in Afghanistan. That's what I heard anyway.
posted by Outlawyr at 11:27 AM on October 16, 2004

Bin Laden will never be captured as long as Bush is in the White House because it was displease Bush's Saudi handlers if he did so.
posted by whirlwind29 at 11:27 AM on October 16, 2004

Indeed, China should be very careful about cutting a deal with Bush at all, let alone before an election. Should it go awry -- hell, even if it went off without a hitch -- it could unleash a terrible rebellion, one that makes Chechnya with its few million look like a garden party. And in return for what? The underhanded, unwritten promises of what has been termed the most "say one thing, do another" administration in American history? The risks to China are not worth it -- they'd be fools to do it. They do some pretty bad things -- but they don't often do recklessly stupid things, and trusting their domestic stability to an under the table deal with this administration would be recklessly stupid.
posted by George_Spiggott at 11:27 AM on October 16, 2004

omg i just saw bin laden jog past my house.

I heard he's only running in swing states.
posted by keli at 11:28 AM on October 16, 2004

Life is not a chess game.

But Foreign Policy is.
posted by Mick at 11:28 AM on October 16, 2004

Have relations with China improved since they held that plane of ours way back when? I only know we're doing more and more business with them.
posted by amberglow at 11:30 AM on October 16, 2004

Dirty tricks or not, a caputure of OBL would cetainly give the administration 4 more years. I cant imagine a world where the US is more closely allied with China than France but maybe thats where we are headed.

FWIW, the authority on the subject OctoberSurprise.net has the odds of obl being captured at almost 40%.
posted by H. Roark at 11:39 AM on October 16, 2004

Yes, and a huge chunk of that second-highest-ever $413 billion trade deficit goes to them, too. Keep that in mind, folks. Look on the tags and boxes of everything you buy, and see how much of it says Made In China.

Then think about what "relations" with China might imply. Try to keep head not asplode.
posted by zoogleplex at 11:44 AM on October 16, 2004

The Chinese gov't would have zero reason to undertake this sort of deal; OBL couldn't guarantee the peace they want (the insurgency predates OBL and has its own raison-d'etre), so why would they risk it? If anything, OBL would make the problem worse, since he's explicitly in favor of a muslim super-state, and China is explicitly against any part of China being separated from the motherland under any conditions whatsoever.

IMHO, it's tinfoil-hat time.
posted by aramaic at 11:47 AM on October 16, 2004

H. Roark-- Those aren't odds.

Those who put their money where their mouths are have far longer odds.
posted by Kwantsar at 11:52 AM on October 16, 2004

it could unleash a terrible rebellion, one that makes Chechnya with its few million look like a garden party

If you put on your warmonger cap, is this not a strategic benefit to an interpretation of the United States' interests that emphasizes military supremacy and the continuation of the security state?
posted by mwhybark at 11:59 AM on October 16, 2004

Am I the only one who sees this as "CHINA HAS BEEN HARBORING BIN LADEN FOR OVER A YEAR"? It's not going to be easy for Bush to spin China as an "ally against terror."

Should this all be true, I don't think the administration is above lying and saying "They just noticed him and immediately negotiated a surrender." How much you wanna bet that the major news sources wouldn't call them on it?

The more I think about it, the less likely it seems that he'll surrender. What has he got to hope for if he's detained? He's a hero to the folks surrounding him, and they already have a history of violence that the Chinese army can't quell.
posted by Mayor Curley at 12:02 PM on October 16, 2004

Condi Rice is OBL in drag.

Think about it.

Touch yourself while you do.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 12:05 PM on October 16, 2004

I don't see how China capturing Bin Laden guarantees Shrub anything. Maybe if one of the Coalition of the Willing countries captured Bin Laden, that'd make some... well, no unless Bush found Bin Laden hiding in his closet in the Oval Office, at this point I don't buy how this war on terrorism has done anything but perpetuate the terror.

Besides, I still think Bin Laden cleaned himself up, shaved, went a little grey from all the stress, bought some blue jeans and collared shirts, and he's now the guy behind the glass partition that I buy gas from every week or so. He's got that look in his eye. I think it's him. And y'know whut? I don't care. Cuz he ain't mad at me. He smiles at me and thanks me and says "come again" in that annoying accent. If I were a corporate monolith flipping off his ancient belief structure maybe I'd want him behind bars out of a survival instinct, but me and Bin Laden got a mutual understanding.

So y'all go on ahead and believe he's in China all you want. I'll continue buying outrageously priced gas and nowin lottery tickets from Bin Laden, and he'll keep chuckling at us stupid white people behind our backs. By the way, Elvis says hi. He's the old homeless guy peddling for change outside the gas station.
posted by ZachsMind at 12:05 PM on October 16, 2004

omg i just saw bin laden jog past my house.

I heard he's only running in swing states.

That was sheer brilliance, keli.
posted by Ufez Jones at 12:07 PM on October 16, 2004

Condi Rice is OBL in drag.

Think about it.

Touch yourself while you do.

PinkStainlessO'Reilly!
posted by quonsar at 12:08 PM on October 16, 2004

Quick, someone get Kerry to make a better deal with the Chinese than Bush. It worked for Reagan.
posted by mikeh at 12:08 PM on October 16, 2004

Is exporting/importing a terrorist covered under NAFTA?
posted by ElvisJesus at 12:10 PM on October 16, 2004

If Bin Laden's captured before November 2nd, Bush has some conspiracy thing going on with China and cut a better deal, and if it's after November 2nd, Kerry's got some conspiracy thing going on with China and cut a better deal. How's that for hedging our bets?
posted by ZachsMind at 12:12 PM on October 16, 2004

I heard he's only running in swing states.

i bow to the superior comedy firepower of keli.
posted by lord_wolf at 12:15 PM on October 16, 2004

Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar are alive and in Afghanistan, a former Taliban diplomat told reporters on Friday. (from late Sept.)
posted by amberglow at 12:16 PM on October 16, 2004

You know, there is no way that OBL's capture or death, were it be reported and authenticated, WOULDN'T be greeted with a wave of terrorist attacks.

If there IS something to this then the danger of it backfiring in a horrible way is extremely high. Then again Rove & Co. don't seem like the kind of people who terribly care about this sort of side-effect.
posted by clevershark at 12:22 PM on October 16, 2004

Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar are alive and in Afghanistan, a former Taliban diplomat told reporters on Friday. (from late Sept.)

That would be late September of 2002.
posted by Lokheed at 12:27 PM on October 16, 2004

PinkStainlessO'Reilly!

*Takes fish out of q's pants, rubs briskly with falafel*
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 12:28 PM on October 16, 2004

Thanks for the link Postroad. The site has some very valuable information on it and links to some very interesting sites. I think this one has some must read articles on it. Like Mayor Curley, I'm going to have to remain a bit skeptical with the information here, but I'm hoping that a firestorm will develop out of it with bloggers like with the 'is Bush wired?' controversy until it gets picked up by the major media.

On another note, has anyone seen any major media coverage regarding the Project for a New American Century and Cheney & Rumsfeld's link to it? You've got to admit, it does seem very plausible.
posted by daHIFI at 12:36 PM on October 16, 2004

I honestly don't think it matters at this point. John Kerry clearly won all three debates but Bush closed the small gap and jumped to a four-point lead (Zogby's says 14% of democrats support Bush). Now they've framed this entire last week after the debates on some lame question about Kerry using Cheney's gay daughter (the way, you know, the VP uses it for his what-a-father disagreement with the president) and the American people are lapping it up like puppy dogs.

The american people are proving, once again, that the majority of them aren't interested in political discourse, only entertaining soundbites. The future headlines are writing themselves: America Attacked by Terrorists Again, World Shrugs.
posted by The God Complex at 12:37 PM on October 16, 2004

Condi Rice is OBL in drag.

Think about it.

Touch yourself while you do.

So, uh... what was supposed to happen?
posted by Krrrlson at 12:42 PM on October 16, 2004

That would be late September of 2002.

oops...nevermind then.
posted by amberglow at 1:00 PM on October 16, 2004

>>could unleash a terrible rebellion, one that makes Chechnya with its few million look like a garden party
>
>If you put on your warmonger cap, is this not a strategic benefit to an interpretation of the United States' interests that emphasizes military supremacy and the continuation of the security state?

But we're talking about China's interests. China is doing everything it can to reassure people for the 2008 Olympics. The last thing they need is to remind everyone that they have a huge unassimilated Islamic minority. Let alone a really, really pissed-off one. Can you imagine trying to hold the 2004 Olympics in Moscow? Who would have gone?
posted by George_Spiggott at 1:06 PM on October 16, 2004

Civil War in one of China's provinces is a high price for a more favorable relationship with an administration that may not be there for them if the ploy doesn't work. I thought the Chinese Junta was smarter than the American Junta.

OK, well, here's one thing that the Chinese could gain from this: The re-election of George Bush.

That's great for them, because Bush is a free-trader with poor management and diplomatic skills, who comes out of a long family tradition of feeling warm and fuzzy about China. Plus, he's a really incompetent leader who's embarrassing America and radically reducing our capability to project military and economic power.* So the Chinese probably love Bush to death.

That said, this is all pretty hypothetical stuff. Two weeks ago, the scuttlebutt was that OBL was in Pakistan, being protected by rogue Pak military men; before that it was that the Pakistanis had him in their pocket and were waiting for the Bushite's cue to "capture" him. This is all kind of fun in an academic way, but aside from steeling us for the treachery that we know out leaders are capable of, I don't see that it's worth getting that excited over.

--
* Think of it this way: Remember when you used to play marathon games of Risk in your dorm, and after a while you'd get tired and want to leave, but you didn't want to just bag it and walk away? So you'd start invading everything, conquer most of the world, but stretch yourself so thin that the other players would knock you off in another round of turns. That's what GWB is doing to America.
posted by lodurr at 1:34 PM on October 16, 2004

The translation is on a website that somebody made in their basement. The original story is from El Mundo, which is one of the larger newspapers in Spain.

Not that everything one reads in a big newspaper is accurate, of course (!koff!JudithMiller!koff!) but the original story isn't some kind of obscure kook-screed. And the translation looked reasonably accurate to me.
posted by Sidhedevil at 1:42 PM on October 16, 2004

I have heard a lot of rumors about where bin Laden is, and I must confess I expected him handed to Bush on Nov 1. But I'm wondering if that would be in the administration's interest. Few Americans like his tax policy and even fewer like his economic policy. His political strategy is to use fear, his greatest ally in the war on terror.
posted by gesamtkunstwerk at 2:23 PM on October 16, 2004

If OBL is in China right now does that mean that in six months there'll a million knock-off clones of him? Or does that only work with designer handbags?
posted by herc at 2:33 PM on October 16, 2004

half of China is now hiding in a cave in Afghanistan


That's one big cave.
posted by kamylyon at 3:17 PM on October 16, 2004

"I'll see your bin Laden and raise you Taiwan."
posted by wobh at 3:48 PM on October 16, 2004

Two points... One if OBL is really in China, it might take a little longer than 2 weeks to get him extracted, unless they have him in the pocket in which case we would have heard about it sooner (I think).

Two, what if that they trotted OBL out said they captured him, then a week or two later post-election, oops it is only someone who looks like OBL, not the real person, sorry. A temporary black-eye for Bush but who cares he's won the election.
posted by edgeways at 4:04 PM on October 16, 2004

Once again: how can people who insist that Bush and his people are totally incompetent manage a world-class conspiracy in total secrecy like this? You simply can't have it both ways.
posted by MattD at 4:58 PM on October 16, 2004

Once again: how can people who insist that Bush and his people are totally incompetent manage a world-class conspiracy in total secrecy like this?

They're only incompetant at creating jobs, improving education & social services, reducing the wage gap and generally improving the way of life for average Americans. They're fucking brilliant at lining their own pockets, helping their cronies (Halliburton et al), reducing civil liberties, creating global instability - in essence, at doing anything that benefits them at the expense of the other 99.99% of us on this planet.

Not saying that China theory is true, just noting that the Bush administration is selectively incompetent.
posted by junkbox at 5:12 PM on October 16, 2004

You know, there is no way that OBL's capture or death, were it be reported and authenticated, WOULDN'T be greeted with a wave of terrorist attacks.

If there IS something to this then the danger of it backfiring in a horrible way is extremely high. Then again Rove & Co. don't seem like the kind of people who terribly care about this sort of side-effect

What are you saying? Should Bin Laden NOT be captured or killed? If he were, should it NOT be authenticated and reported? What is your suggestion?
posted by Stauf at 5:27 PM on October 16, 2004

Once again: how can people who insist that Bush and his people are totally incompetent manage a world-class conspiracy in total secrecy like this? You simply can't have it both ways.

once again? is that a prevalent opinion that the Bush people are incompetent, because I haven't heard it much. Which liberal sites suggest that Rove et al are incompetent? Or more likely this is just spin and you know you're being deceptive.
posted by rhyax at 5:39 PM on October 16, 2004

"I hope it's not so, but at this point, would it work to get Bush reelected?"

I am sorry if I misunderstand what you are saying Amberglow, but are you insinuating that you hope we don't capture Osama Bin Laden, give him a fair trial, and if convicted under law, punish him?
posted by Keyser Soze at 6:06 PM on October 16, 2004

The best counter to the argument about bin Laden being in custody now and awaiting the cue from ShrubCo is that his followers would have already gone berserk.

Who knows if this is true, maybe he really has gone to ground and is working at a gas station. Crazier shit has happened.

I don't want to see any October surprises. I want a good clean election that results in Bush getting clobbered.

Bin Laden should absolutely be captured or killed. He should have been captured or killed a couple of years ago before Bush charged off into Iraq. But having it happen right now, just before a hotly contested election, would be just a little too convenient. Almost like it had been planned.
posted by fenriq at 6:07 PM on October 16, 2004

Keyser, a secret deal with the Chinese (or anyone) to help his reelection chances is what i hope is not so--i remember Reagan's little dealmaking, and the effect it had.

Osama, if he is still alive, has accomplished what he wanted, and his movement is now worldwide, in part thanks to our government's actions in response to 9/11. We should have gotten him when we were in Afghanistan originally, instead of outsourcing the search and going to Iraq.

Getting him to ensure Bush's reelection is not how it should be done--but i won't be surprised--we've paid Pakistan to do it for us too. Whoever has him, should have handed him over--if it comes out that they're holding him until they get a signal from Rove, then they should rot in hell along with Osama.
posted by amberglow at 7:10 PM on October 16, 2004

FWIW, Snopes' take. (I know, Snopes.)
posted by Turtles all the way down at 7:16 PM on October 16, 2004

Reasons I don't buy it:

--Bin Laden getting into China would've been a non-trivial matter, not the least because the part of Afghanistan he would have had to cross to get there were the Northern Alliance areas. Sneaking through by land or over by air doesn't seem likely. Going thru Pakistan would have taken a much higher degree of support from that government than would be likely. Any other route would have pointed to places where it would be easier to hide (Yemen? Sudan?) rather than looping back around to an unfriendly China.

--My impression of Kashgar muslims is that they're not organized or cohesive enough to cache such a high-profile scoundrel. My impression of China is that they're too well organized to let someone like this slip through and hide (compare Tibet).

--Washington neo-cons spent years building up China as a future enemy before 9/11. I think they still want to keep the option open. It's not in their blood to make deals, they're much happier with a "great satan", and if they get too chummy with China, they lose the enemy they were counting on having once they win the War on Terror. (I'm only partly being sarcastic here...)
posted by gimonca at 7:17 PM on October 16, 2004

China is going to crush America like a bug economically in the next 2-5 decades. This OBL thing, whether it's true or not, is small potatoes next to that.

As, in fact, is whether Bush's crew steals another election. That'd just hasten the inevitable.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:19 PM on October 16, 2004

A few moment's reflection convinces me this is bogus. Bush has gone out of his way to avoid mentioning Bin Laden -- he didn't even utter the name during his RNC acceptance speech (he mentioned Saddam 5 times). When the name came up in the debate, he even confused it with Saddam in at least one (possibly two) Freudian slips. One would expect him or his toadies to hype the heck out of Bin Laden if they had a planned October surprise.
posted by RavinDave at 1:42 AM on October 17, 2004

half of China is now hiding in a cave in Afghanistan

I've got a Chinaman hiding in my cave right now!

I don't buy the theory that magically pulling OBL out of his hat would win the election for Bush & Co. But then I'm sensible, educated, and well-read so I guess I can't speak for the rest of America.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 7:53 AM on October 17, 2004

China is going to crush America like a bug economically in the next 2-5 decades

Happily, it's not a pissing contest; there's generally no bug-crushing. When the US was around half of global GDP, that didn't make Europe poor or crush Europe like a bug; it made Europe get richer faster. When Europe was recovering after WW2 and driving the US's share of global GDP *way* down, that didn't make the US poorer or crush it like a bug; it made the US get richer faster. Same if China finally takes off.

OTOH, China, like Brazil, may be "the country of the future" for a loooong time.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:59 AM on October 17, 2004

Somebody around here had a good point when they said that the capture of bin Laden at this point will have about as much effect on terrorism as the death of Ray Kroc had on McDonald's. The franchises are already up and running. McD's is still selling burgers and Al Qaida will continue their operations.
posted by wsg at 9:49 AM on October 17, 2004

...it made the US get richer faster. Same if China finally takes off.

Colour me skeptical. But we shall see, won't we?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 1:40 PM on October 17, 2004

Could Osama bin Laden be already dead or dying?

Just to add to the stew, I've read discussion on the Web that OBL has renal insufficiency, apparently requiring hemodialysis, and it's suggested he may have had a stroke as well (in one videotape, he doesn't move his left arm). What I can't understand is how he could be so sick as to require fairly detailed medical intervention and yet be so thoroughly hidden; having to get a lot of specialized high-tech medical work done on you doesn't really work if you're hiding in a cave ten days' donkey ride up in the hills.
posted by alumshubby at 7:31 AM on October 18, 2004

Bin Laden will never be captured as long as Bush is in the White House because it was displease Bush's Saudi handlers if he did so.

Why would it? Despite them both being utterly evil, the House of Saud and al-Qaeda are bitter enemies.
posted by sonofsamiam at 8:35 AM on October 18, 2004

Y'know, it seems to me that if Bush's administration's strategy is to keep the fear on, then it's not really in their interest to capture ObL. It's better if it's all uncertain and unresolved. A capture might give them a lift in the polls, but in the longer term it's in their benefit to have as large a stable of bogeymen as possible — ObL, Al-Q, Saddam, assorted unspecified other terrorists, the French, etc.
posted by hattifattener at 9:27 AM on October 18, 2004

Once again: how can people who insist that Bush and his people are totally incompetent manage a world-class conspiracy in total secrecy like this? You simply can't have it both ways.

once again: they're certainly incompetent at governing, but nobody said "totally" incompetent: they're great, for example, at awarding money to their corporate masters, at punishing those who dis the family (ie Ambassador Wilson). they have been very good at scaring the American people shtiless with dubious (at best) terrah alerts.

they just can't govern, nor they can win the war in Iraq, apperently. but they have been successful at some things -- like having their troops commit war crimes, or turning "democracy-exporting-at-gunpoint" America into a worldwide laughinstock
posted by matteo at 9:39 AM on October 18, 2004