You might as well play around with it now, while the sites still work. Cause they are going to get soooooooooo slow. posted by smackfu at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2004
Here are poll closing times: (EST)
7PM: Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.
7:30PM: Ohio, W. Virginia
8PM: Florida, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, D.C., Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Illinois, Mississippi and Oklahoma.
8:30PM: N. Carolina, Arkansas
9PM: New York, Rhode Island, Louisiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, Texas, Nebraska, South Dakota
10PM: Iowa, Montana, Utah and Nevada.
11PM: North Dakota, California, Idaho, Washington State and Hawaii.
Jesus! The polls are still open in Indiana and Kentucky (although since they've voted Republican for the last zillion years, I suppose it's a safe call--still, it's the principle of the the thing). posted by Sidhedevil at 3:35 PM on November 2, 2004
The polls close asynchrnously in Indiana and Kentucky: Central time closes an hour later than Eastern. posted by calwatch at 3:39 PM on November 2, 2004
Right, but the early polls in Indiana don't close until 7 Eastern. posted by Sidhedevil at 3:43 PM on November 2, 2004
Jesus fucking Christ, keep it coming. Yeah bitch, keep it coming. Keep those fucking polls coming in. Yeah... nice and slow now... yeah more numbers... more numbers. posted by geoff. at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2004
calwatch gets the gold star for today. posted by whatnot at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2004
Actually, Kentucky and Indiana poll closing time is 6 PM in local time. (I just checked on their websites helpfully linked above.) posted by smackfu at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2004
geoff. is suffering from Election Erection. posted by ColdChef at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2004
Ah. My bad, smackfu! It is pretty confusing considering the fact that the states are in two time zones. Still, I need more coffee. posted by Sidhedevil at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2004
Dude, which skull and crossbones leader will win? posted by Keyser Soze at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2004
CALIFORNIA NO WORK
true. on so many levels. posted by quonsar at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2004
So far:
Kentucky, 11% precincts, 55.8% Bush, 43.5% Kerry. posted by ed at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2004
Indiana is on Eastern Time because we don't do Daylight Savings Time. However, several counties both in the north and the south do follow DST because people there commute to Chicago or Louisville, and those polls close on CST.
However, like Sidhedevil said- Indiana hasn't gone Democrat since JFK, so I wouldn't expect to see anything different tonight. posted by headspace at 3:56 PM on November 2, 2004
Thanks for this. A click takes you from geographical to elctoral college results, shown graphically. Very nice. posted by 327.ca at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2004
Actually, they just said on CNN that the last Democrat who won Indiana was Lyndon Johnson. posted by Sidhedevil at 4:02 PM on November 2, 2004
Really? That doesn't sound right to me, but I wasn't old enough to vote in that particular election, so I could definitely be wrong. Either way, it's been a long, long time since we went Democrat! posted by headspace at 4:04 PM on November 2, 2004
Doesn't look like it's going to happen today neither. Oh well. There goes the shutout.
I think it's time I started drinking. If only to protect my ulcer from the evening ahead. posted by chicobangs at 4:05 PM on November 2, 2004
I'm going to follow this all night and I'm not going to sleep until the Supreme Court makes a final ruling. posted by graventy at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2004
So is this the thread? Because I need to know what to hit reload on ten thousand times tonight.
Time to go make some election day enchiladas! posted by sugarfish at 4:09 PM on November 2, 2004
Johnson won the '64 election by an enormous landslide; the only states Goldwater won were Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Goldwater's home state of Arizona. posted by Sidhedevil at 4:12 PM on November 2, 2004
Can I not get a live video feed of some goddamn news channel? The best I can find is the BBC, but that isn't live... posted by Orange Goblin at 4:18 PM on November 2, 2004
Wel-l-l-l-, it's seven fifteen here in Ohio. I'm done with my workout. I think I'll mosey on over to the polling place and cast my vote. By the time I get there and wait in line, it should be about 7:30. I'll probably be the last person to cast a vote in Ohio. At that point, the race should be about 50-50. Do you know what that means? That means that I, Faze, will decide this election. Me. With my one vote. Using the very thumb and forefinger that are typing this message, I will determine the fate of millions. And to think how people on Metafilter used to laugh at me, and call me a pot head, and call for my death. I wonder if they're laughing now? And who shall I vote for? Hmmm. Let's see. I don't much like Bush... But I can't stand the Bush-haters. Funny thing, as I was leaving work this evening, two of the most beautiful women I know literally got down on their knees and begged me to vote for Kerry. That's a mighty persuasive argument to someone with my low self-esteem. On the other hand, I'm worried that George Bush may indeed be the favored son of heaven. How else could someone so mediocre have ever risen to such heights, except with Divine support? Well, I'll see how I feel once I get to the polling place, and stand before the almighty ancients who run the place. I just open the ballot, and hover there with the little pin piercer, and wait and see which way the wind blows against my wrist... posted by Faze at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004
Thanks Faze. I hope your ego survives the month-long litigation over whether or not your wind-blown vote counted. posted by PrinceValium at 4:24 PM on November 2, 2004
I take back every bad thing I ever said about you,Faze. posted by dhoyt at 4:24 PM on November 2, 2004
faze, if you don't stop babbling, and get to the polling place, you won't be voting for anyone. And it's already going to be not that close--sorry.
Fred Barnes is now officially melting down. Bill Kristol isn't exactly melting down. Brit is looking at the Fox vote ticker and saying "This isn't much of a vote to call here (referring to pro-Republican trends from a couple of thousand SC voters)" and the little giggle is gone. posted by Sidhedevil at 4:29 PM on November 2, 2004
#mefi's happening tonight, guys. Join us there. More efficient than thread commenting. posted by PrinceValium at 4:30 PM on November 2, 2004
cheers amberglow - now does anyone know how to make IE always on top (since the link won't work in Firefox) posted by Orange Goblin at 4:36 PM on November 2, 2004
The #mefi ops will kick you if you come for election talk, so be warned. posted by mr_crash_davis at 4:41 PM on November 2, 2004
As of this minute:
KY: 42.51% Kerry, 56.69% Bush (42.5% reporting)
IN: 38.1% Kerry, 61.28% Bush (11.5% reporting)
FL: 43.05% Kerry, 56.06% Bush (1.6% reporting)
VA: 42.31% Kerry, 57.19% Bush (2.5% reporting)
There are a couple other states, but the % reporting is so small as to be inconsequential right now. posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:49 PM on November 2, 2004
Stay away from #mefi.
Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded. posted by wendell at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2004
FL now 56.31% Bush / 42.84% Kerry (3.2% rep.) posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:52 PM on November 2, 2004
Wah! Moz left on a business trip and I don't know how to set up IRC on this linux box. Y'all are all over there, aren't you? posted by sugarfish at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2004
If this is the last time I speak with you, I just want all of you, Mefi, to know that I love you with all of my heart. posted by sic at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2004
Wait, I take that back. New England just checked in. (Kerry 77, Bush 66) posted by DrJohnEvans at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2004
An interesting start. In Ohio, Kerry is at 56% (83,567), Bush at 44% (65,704). That said, you can pretty much flip that result in Florida at this sec. The good news there is that none of the big Democratic counties there are reporting yet. posted by insomnia_lj at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2004
But in Ohio have any big GOP counties reported? Or is it just all a big mess as of now. posted by edgeways at 5:28 PM on November 2, 2004
(Hey Insomnia, are you following any political communities on LJ tonight? Which ones?) posted by sugarfish at 5:28 PM on November 2, 2004
Back to the original point of this thread... I'm pretty annoyed that Connecticut's site still hasn't put any numbers up yet, 30 minutes after the polls closed. posted by smackfu at 5:29 PM on November 2, 2004
Lake County has reported and I think another traditionally Republican county. I don't think people are even done voting in Cleveland yet (there are a lot of people who were in line well before the polls closed who haven't voted yet). posted by Sidhedevil at 5:30 PM on November 2, 2004
Paris, your hitler haircut is making me feel ill.
Post Save Error #9
Use The Backup Posting Procedure posted by Blue Stone at 5:36 PM on November 2, 2004
Gaa! I cant stand the suspense! posted by mikojava at 5:49 PM on November 2, 2004
I am not impressed with the 'projected' game that CNN.com is playing. It's not even clear from the interface how to get to a graphical, comprehensive view of the actual results. posted by bingo at 5:50 PM on November 2, 2004
i'm offput by the disengenuously grave meta-sidebars the tv-networks are doing about how rigorous their prediction process is.
"well," the bearded man at the computer who looks smart (probably has a phd) and harried says, "we simply cannot call new york for kerry yet because the results are to provisional."
it's effective. suddenly i trust them. suddenly i am afraid. posted by milkman at 6:00 PM on November 2, 2004
Meanwhile, the more 'conservative' nytimes.com map suggests a score of only 34-3 Bush, hardly more comforting. posted by bingo at 6:15 PM on November 2, 2004
You know, I can get IRC to randomly work...tonight doesn't seem to be one of those times. I keep getting a "Couldn't look up your hostname" error.
As to the election, I assume it's going to be a long, interesting night...leading to long, interesting lawsuits... posted by dejah420 at 6:17 PM on November 2, 2004
that's incomplete, right? (ohio). doesn't seem to say it's incomplete anywhere, but the numbers are small. posted by andrew cooke at 6:20 PM on November 2, 2004
Polls are starting to shift in Florida now that Broward County has reported about half their votes... and bejeezus... they've got 66% Kerry, with voters still in line at the polls. I suspect that those precincts which haven't reported in Broward are even more heavily minority. Palm Beach is just starting to report in, and they're about 61% Kerry.
Ohio now has 8% of precincts reporting, and Bush is now ahead 52-47... but many of the smaller Republican counties are reporting before the larger Democratic ones.
Nail biting time indeed. posted by insomnia_lj at 6:22 PM on November 2, 2004
"that's incomplete, right? (ohio)"
Yep. All numbers will be incomplete for about three hours, I suspect, given that people are still waiting in line to vote in some cases. That said, the counties that report in the latest will generally tend to trend strongest towards Kerry. posted by insomnia_lj at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2004
At the very least, the liberal media bullshit is tres thick with distortions this evening. Ohio already called by NBC? What the fuck is that about? posted by ParisParamus at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2004
Florida is all about counties and nationally our rural counties report first. Kerry is doing well in metro counties, but I think the democrats wrote off florida long ago to focus on Ohio and the surrounding swing states. So I wouldnt be too surprised if florida goes to Bush. posted by skallas at 6:30 PM on November 2, 2004
!!! THE LIBERAL MEDIA !!! posted by mcsweetie at 6:30 PM on November 2, 2004
i love paris. let's all smooch paris. posted by kv at 6:36 PM on November 2, 2004
Mo is really swinging, some say K is ahead in OH now, and looks like there is a legal battle coming over absentee ballots in..... FL posted by edgeways at 6:38 PM on November 2, 2004
The President is going on the air before the polls are closed. If that doesn't spell scared shitless, I don't know what does. posted by ed at 6:47 PM on November 2, 2004
maybe he wants to go to bed. i can understand that. posted by andrew cooke at 6:50 PM on November 2, 2004
They just aired it. It was basically Bush in shirtsleeves with his family. "Feeling really good. We're going to win it." Blah blah blah.
In other news, it looks like Kerry has Pennsylvania. If Kerry gets either Ohio or Florida, he has this in the bag. posted by ed at 6:55 PM on November 2, 2004
I thought Kerry needed PA, OH and FL, as well as the Little Three (WI, MN, IA)? posted by allaboutgeorge at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2004
I want to see Chris Matthews cry. posted by ParisParamus at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004
How does this work? For instance on the C-SPAN map I see that Wyoming is coloured for Bush with 54% of the vote but only 4% of the precincts are reporting. I'm sure that it's coloured correctly but how can they predict based on 4% of the precincts? My first thought was that maybe those 4% made up the bulk of the population but I'd expect those results to come in later?
Just curious. posted by substrate at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004
I've got the CBC map on my left monitor, and the electoral-vote.com averaged polls page on the right. If Ohio and Florida both go to Bush, like the polls predict, that'll be the way to bet... posted by sfenders at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004
two from each will see him through, provided all other states votes as expected posted by edgeways at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2004
"Bush is winning Franklin County, OH by 9, with 20% in.... that's Columbus, folks.."--LGF posted by ParisParamus at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2004
Can someone hold my hand? posted by orange swan at 7:01 PM on November 2, 2004
It's just not gonna happen, paris. Come join the rest of us back here in reality.
Calm down everyone. Kerry's already won. Barring legal challenges, which it looks like we'll see. posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2004
substrate - it may just be wild guesswork. but i've been wondering about this too. you can calculate the likelihood that a state will go to a particular party given what you already know (from earlier polls) and what partial information you have (from some % of the votes). so depending on how much weighting you give to the prior information (how steady you think votes are over time), you might be, say, 90% certain of a result with only a fraction of the votes. but i'm not sure anyone really bothers with that. posted by andrew cooke at 7:04 PM on November 2, 2004
It's getting closer in Florida. 67% precincts, Bush 51.7%, Kerry 47.4%. It's also tight in the Senate race there.
allaboutgeorge: If you're going by CBS coverage (which is specifically referencing the Little Three), note that they haven't counted California yet (I think). Then again, I'm gloriously drunk and my math might be off. posted by ed at 7:06 PM on November 2, 2004
Calm down everyone. Kerry's already won. Barring legal challenges, which it looks like we'll see.
Paint me that picture? How can Kerry pull this off? Based on the numbers I'm looking at, it looks tough. posted by Decypher at 7:09 PM on November 2, 2004
Kerry closing in on Ohio. Bush 51 to Kerry 47. People are still waiting in line in the rain to vote. posted by ed at 7:10 PM on November 2, 2004
I'll tell you how; he can get California and Florida. posted by bingo at 7:12 PM on November 2, 2004
Bush nearing 200 electoral votes on BBC, and they haven't given him NM yet. posted by dand at 7:12 PM on November 2, 2004
Forget Franklin County. Cuyahoga is the one to watch and we're still voting. posted by ltracey at 7:13 PM on November 2, 2004
eb ... it's too close to call ... it really is ... we won't know for hours posted by pyramid termite at 7:13 PM on November 2, 2004
It's getting less close in Florida, since it's still 52-47 with 78% reporting, percentages unchanged since it was at 67%.
This sucks. Why do I even care? I don't even live in your stupid country, damn it.
I'll hold your hand, orange swan. posted by sfenders at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2004
Hey, it's not over until Diebold has approved the candidate of its choice. posted by Blue Stone at 7:17 PM on November 2, 2004
Dark, Blue Stone. Dark. posted by TeamBilly at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2004
People are still voting in Pennsylvania, even though the polls closed officially two hours ago. WGAL just showed a two hour long line at a local polling place here in York. posted by MegoSteve at 7:18 PM on November 2, 2004
Bush has it. Always has. posted by cmacleod at 7:19 PM on November 2, 2004
If Utah and Montana have turned in votes from 0 precincts, then why does CNN.com already call them for Bush? And if it's a reason not based in any way on actual results, why didn't they call those states for Bush two hours ago? posted by bingo at 7:22 PM on November 2, 2004
> then why does CNN.com already call them for Bush?
That is a good question. CNN and Yahoo seem to be following BBC, all with Bush just shy of 200.
NYT is laggin, hasn't even called TX for Bush. posted by dand at 7:25 PM on November 2, 2004
It can be very misleading to extrapolate from precinct results as they come in on election night. That's because many states have populations that are not uniformly distributed according to political affiliation. This is especially true in both Ohio and Florida. A lot of the more rural, lower-population precincts will get their results in early, which will skew the early results towards Bush because he quite definitely has a good lead nationally in rural communities. posted by Ethereal Bligh at 7:30 PM on November 2, 2004
Thanks, sfenders [extends trembling wing].
I'm watching the numbers posted on the Globe and Mail site, and they don't look good.
I'm getting this bizarre and rash impulse to vow that if Kerry wins, I will sleep with the first Democrat voter who knocks on my door. I'm reining that impulse in so far:-) posted by orange swan at 7:30 PM on November 2, 2004
The CBC site gives Missouri to Bush, and is still calling Florida undecided. Both states show Bush 52% and Kerry 47%, with 85% of precincts reporting in Florida, and 26% of precincts reporting in Missouri. posted by bingo at 7:39 PM on November 2, 2004
Better hope Zell Miller doesn't come a knockin'.... posted by TeamBilly at 7:40 PM on November 2, 2004
Where do you live again, swan? posted by Potloaf at 7:40 PM on November 2, 2004
...re my comment above: in other words, by the CBC's own info, a better case could be made as to what's going to happen in Florida, but they are clearly not choosing to color the states in based solely on the numbers.
I am gaining an increasing amount of respect for the New York Times tonight. posted by bingo at 7:42 PM on November 2, 2004
> Missouri
MO will go Bush. I've never seen as many anti-abortion signs as on I-44 and I-55. They might be union, but they are fundies too. posted by dand at 7:43 PM on November 2, 2004
If Utah and Montana have turned in votes from 0 precincts, then why does CNN.com already call them for Bush?
There was never any question about Utah. Utah had 40% leads for Bush at some polling points. I imagine Montana is the same. posted by weston at 7:43 PM on November 2, 2004
But if that's the attitude that the people coloring in the maps are going to take, then they should have started the maps out with those states colored for Bush. But, at least in the case of CNN.com, they didn't. They waited until the colors were starting to spread westward in other states, and then colored in Montana and Utah as if their bushiness was a recently arrived-at conclusion. posted by bingo at 7:47 PM on November 2, 2004
Sheesh. Why on earth doesn't everyone weight the % reporting numbers by number of registered voters in each precinct? That'd be much more useful. table is useful for estimating the number of people in each state, to compare with the number of votes counted. 88% precincts reporting in Florida, but they include only something like 60% (+ or - quite a lot) of the people who are likely to vote.
Well, orange swan, I hope you do manage to get some sleep tonight. I say we all should just shut down this thread now and check back in the morning. posted by sfenders at 7:55 PM on November 2, 2004
I think they assume the exit polls are right if they agree with the real polls. In that case they don't need real votes to call the state. It generally works fairly well. posted by smackfu at 7:57 PM on November 2, 2004
Oops, meant to say that they assume the exit polls are accurate if they agree with the pre-election polls. posted by smackfu at 7:59 PM on November 2, 2004
i don't know, ltracey - cuyahoga's the democratic stronghold of ohio; its votes counted for nothing in 2000. what we need to see is higher democratic turnout in columbus and cincinnati and so on... posted by ubersturm at 8:01 PM on November 2, 2004
Fuck. Florida is lost. 85.7% precincts, 51.7% Bush and 47.5% Kerry. And there's not much of Miami-Dade left to count. posted by ed at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2004
I went out for a four mile walk tonight and thought about all this. Whatever happens, when we all wake up tomorrow, there still will be so much to be done. This election will just decide how well positioned we are - you Americans, and the rest of us who are so much affected by what you do - to solve the problems we face. posted by orange swan at 8:06 PM on November 2, 2004
They won't call a state until the official close of voting time in that state. In the past they didn't wait and many people felt this curtailed voting towards the end. posted by billsaysthis at 8:08 PM on November 2, 2004
Oops, meant to say that they assume the exit polls are accurate if they agree with the pre-election polls.
And the victor leads by more than the margin of error, I rather imagine. But I suspect someone took exit polls here in Utah today and got the expected result: Republican victories all, with the possible exception of the 2nd congressional district and the very, very longshot (but still existant) possibility of the governor's race. posted by weston at 8:08 PM on November 2, 2004
welp, I need a cigarette. and I don't smoke. I'm gonna be bummed out for a few weeks now. posted by bob sarabia at 8:09 PM on November 2, 2004
Less than 10% of Cuyahoga County precincts have reported yet. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:11 PM on November 2, 2004
If MSNBC is accurate in the claim they just made that the youth vote didn't increase at all, then I think I actually stopped caring if Bush wins or not. posted by XQUZYPHYR at 8:12 PM on November 2, 2004
And Pennsylvania is a win for Kerry! posted by orange swan at 8:13 PM on November 2, 2004
Gee, they didn't call that one a second too soon, did they?
Florida looks a lot tighter now than I thought it would a couple of hours ago. Well, we'll see, I guess. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:14 PM on November 2, 2004
On the plus side, the Daily Show tonight had its moments. posted by DrJohnEvans at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2004
You'd think FNC would call California for Kerry already. posted by smackfu at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2004
While you're watching the election, the U.S. has started air raids on Falluja. posted by muckster at 8:20 PM on November 2, 2004
Looking at Cuyuhoga, that's basically the only hope left for Kerry. If all precincts continue the current rate of return, then Kerry will edge out Ohio.
As a few other big blogs have started to point out, it's apparently lawsuit after lawsuit over there. This comes down to how many people the GOP can stop from voting. posted by XQUZYPHYR at 8:21 PM on November 2, 2004
I think I'm moving to Florida so I can vote in 2008. posted by bingo at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004
Okay, in Florida, the margin has decreased to 200,000 votes. And they haven't counted absentees or provisionals yet, which are inclined to go to Kerry. There's a slim chance that Kerry can nab the Southern tip. And not a single network is willing to make a call on Florida.
And Ohio remains up in the air.
God damn, does anybody have any nails I can bite? It's still up in the air. posted by ed at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004
Okay, in Florida, the margin has decreased to 200,000 votes.
Where are you getting the numbers from? Bush is ahead by 268k on the SoS site and the latest MSNBC numbers I saw had Bush close to a 300k lead with 95% reporting. posted by gyc at 8:31 PM on November 2, 2004
ed: apparently provisional and absentee ballots in Florida won't be counted until Thursday.
We plan to teach Iraq how to have elections in two months. I hope I'm not the only one trying to process this. posted by XQUZYPHYR at 8:31 PM on November 2, 2004
I see MSNBC has Bush with a 320k+ lead in Florida with 96% reporting. posted by gyc at 8:32 PM on November 2, 2004
California called for Kerry. posted by orange swan at 8:36 PM on November 2, 2004
Are any of the tracking pages reporting the nationwide Badnarik total? I just went through all the individual state pages on CNN, and came up with about 230K for Badnarik, not too far off of Nader's 260K. But everyone is reporting Nader's total and ignoring Badnarik. posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:37 PM on November 2, 2004
Florida is a lot cause. Ohio doesn't look so hot, either. posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:37 PM on November 2, 2004
DA: it's because nobody heard anything about Badnarik. Water cooler talk about third parties only ever focuses on Nader, nearest I can tell, and the news isn't much better. posted by codger at 8:40 PM on November 2, 2004
It is NOT over! Bush leads by less than 150k votes in Ohio! posted by bingo at 8:41 PM on November 2, 2004
I'm not so sure about Florida, C_D. Early votes aren't included until 100% of precincts in a county have reported.
With Kerry down by 200K right now, that difference could be made up with the early votes from Broward/Miami-Dade/Palm Beach.
Also, 0% of Seminole's precincts have reported, and that represents 250K registered voters.
Remember, it's not 93% of votes reported; it's 93% of precincts. I don't think we're going to know Florida until the end of the week. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004
ABC news has called Florida for Bush. {cries} posted by bonheur at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004
People are still voting in Ohio. Let me remind everyone that people are still voting in Ohio. There is no way to call it for Bush this early. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004
ABC News called Florida for Gore last time. It could go either way. The people reporting this don't understand how the voting reports work, for one thing; they keep confusing percentage of precincts reporting with percentage of votes reported. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:45 PM on November 2, 2004
...and Kerry is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, and Iowa. That's 56 electoral votes. posted by bingo at 8:47 PM on November 2, 2004
Florida: There are 6,643,648 votes counted now. 93.6% of the votes. By my math, that means 7,097,915 votes total, or 454,267 votes left to count. Kerry is currently behind by 285,755 votes. He needs to get those votes, or 62% of them plus a majority to win. posted by ed at 8:47 PM on November 2, 2004
what is it that Yoda said when Luke freaked and wanted to leave Dagobah? posted by Bootcut at 8:48 PM on November 2, 2004
Maybe up to 1 million votes left to count in Florida, but even if they go 60-40 for Kerry, Bush still wins it.
Ohio takes it all. Come on Ohio, you can do it. posted by sfenders at 8:49 PM on November 2, 2004
BBC just called Florida for Bush . . . :'< posted by littlegreenlights at 8:50 PM on November 2, 2004
There are more than 10 million registered voters in Florida, and only 6,675,340 votes in the Presidential election have been counted according to the 11:46 update of the Florida Secretary of State site.
It's not 93.6% of the votes, it's 93.6% of the PRECINCTS that have reported. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:53 PM on November 2, 2004
Also, the vote totals don't include early votes from Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties, because those aren't added into the total until 100% of the precincts in those counties have reported. Those are also the most populous counties in Florida, and the strongest for Kerry. posted by Sidhedevil at 8:55 PM on November 2, 2004
Even if Kerry loses Florida, and Ohio, so what? The Dems lost those two last time, too.
But Kerry's ahead in Nevada and New Hampshire. The GOP won both of those last time. Only one needs to switch to give Kerry the election (assuming all the other states stay where they were).
We all knew it would be close. Don't be disappointed that it's not a landslide. posted by ewagoner at 8:55 PM on November 2, 2004
man, this is just getting painful, ....shoulda bought my tickets to australia. posted by NGnerd at 8:56 PM on November 2, 2004
WI is now trending towards Kerry, which really shows the shift of rural precints reporting first. posted by drezdn at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004
CBS sure loves to call states, don't they? posted by smackfu at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004
Ohio takes it all. Come on Ohio, you can do it.
If they don't, it's over by my calculations... posted by pmurray63 at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004
The Globe headline has given me a laugh: "Networks Call Florida for Bush". Timely yet strictly accurate reporting, that. posted by orange swan at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004
Ahh... so many numbers.
If ed's numbers are right, he's got better numbers than me, but worse math methinks. If there are 450000 left to count, Kerry would need 85% or so of them, assuming the other 15% go to his main opponent.
97% of the precincts have reported, by the CBC page. 93% of votes counted would be a reasonable guess, with 10 million registered and turnout somewhere around 75%. posted by sfenders at 8:57 PM on November 2, 2004
So there's an election thingy tonight? posted by MidasMulligan at 8:59 PM on November 2, 2004
Oh now, it's "Two Networks Call Florida for Bush":-) posted by orange swan at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2004
More math.
If Bush victories: AL, AR, GA, IND, KAN, KY, LA, MI, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WVA, VA = 173 votes
If Kerry victories: CT, DE, DC, IL, MN, MA, MS, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT = 134 votes
Kerry needs 136 votes. If he has CA (55 votes), OR (7 votes), WA (11 votes), IA (7 votes), OH (20 votes), that leaves 36 votes. It all comes down to FL and 11 odd votes. posted by ed at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2004
Right now, for example, only 439,699 votes are reported in Palm Beach County, whereas Palm Beach County has 729,575 registered voters. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:01 PM on November 2, 2004
MSNBC just claimed they will not call Florida because of the absentee ballots.
I'm going to bed. I lost every ounce of excitement after the "youth vote meant shit" annoucement. posted by XQUZYPHYR at 9:02 PM on November 2, 2004
NPR is reporting that *people are still voting* in Miami-Dade.
This isn't over yet. posted by bshort at 9:03 PM on November 2, 2004
The Globe poll:
Do you think the world will know who the president of the United States is by the time you get up on Wednesday?
YES: 11535 votes (51%)
NO: 11223 votes (49%) posted by DrJohnEvans at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2004
Sidhedevil: You're right. My mistake. According to sfenders, yes, it could go either way. Too much Merlot. My apologies.
Latest figures from Florida: 95.3% precincts, 51.7% Bush, 47.4% Kerry. (Voting difference: 291, 427 votes at the moment.) posted by ed at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2004
Anyone know how the same-sex proposal in Michigan (proposal 2) is doing? posted by gyc at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2004
Miami-Dade County has 1,058,801 registered voters, and only 699,696 presidential votes reported as of 12:02. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004
Ed, here's a toast. Merlot here too. Not too much yet, but I'm getting there.
Remember: we're not going to have Florida until *Thursday* sometime. Broward broke 2:1 Kerry; the 90,000 absentee ballots they can't find staff to count are in Miami, Right Next Door. posted by baylink at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004
GYC: It's winning big. posted by pmurray63 at 9:06 PM on November 2, 2004
Bush has just pulled ahead of Kerry in Ohio. 51 to 48. Fuck. posted by ed at 9:07 PM on November 2, 2004
"Miami-Dade County has 1,058,801 registered voters, and only 699,696 presidential votes reported as of 12:02."
So we're already at 70% turnout. Even if we get 80%, it's only another 100,000 possibles. If 70% goes Dem, that's only a 40,000 gain. The lead is 325,000 right now. posted by chris24 at 9:10 PM on November 2, 2004
Anyone know which countries currently accept political refugees? posted by shoepal at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2004
CNN just called FL for Bush. posted by headspace at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2004
CNN's tracking the major ballot initiatives here. posted by DevilsAdvocate at 9:11 PM on November 2, 2004
Give up on Florida people. Hope for a miracle in Ohio. Hope that Kerry keeps the leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ignore all else.
Even without Ohio, if Kerry can lose New Mexico, but get New Hampshire and Nevada. He's gold. posted by graventy at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2004
who are all these people voting for bush? seriously! where have they been for the past four years? posted by bob sarabia at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2004
320000 votes difference and 97% precincts in Florida, says the CBC. 6,900,000 or so in total votes counted so far. 8,500,000 total votes a generous estimate. 1,400,000 votes left to count then.
Kerry needs 320000 more than bush, ... which is uh... 860000 of them, or a bit more than 60% of the remaining votes to be counted to be his. HA! I was right the first time.
It's certainly possible, I guess. posted by sfenders at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2004
GYC: More specifically, the MI gay marriage proposal is is winning 60-40.
Bush has been ahead in Ohio. The question is, where are the votes that haven't been counted from?
I doubt it, graventy. Ohio will decide this election. I realized that awhile ago, and ABC's Mark Halperin just said so in as many words. And Bush's people seem more confident there :( posted by pmurray63 at 9:15 PM on November 2, 2004
It's 5 fucking 15 in the morning. I have to get up in 3 hours. As soon as Ohio is called for Bush, I'm gone, cos Bush wins. posted by Orange Goblin at 9:16 PM on November 2, 2004
NBC has called Oregon for Bush. CBS has called it for Kerry. It was a close Gore last time. posted by ewagoner at 9:17 PM on November 2, 2004
doomed!!! posted by Item at 9:18 PM on November 2, 2004
(...we're all) posted by Item at 9:19 PM on November 2, 2004
Scratch that. NBC has retracted, and gives it to Kerry. posted by ewagoner at 9:19 PM on November 2, 2004
Okay. Florida. Provisionals: Quite a few haven't come in.
Ohio: Who the hell knows? posted by ed at 9:19 PM on November 2, 2004
Bush's lead in Ohio is closing... posted by Orange Goblin at 9:20 PM on November 2, 2004
Thanks for the link, DevilsAdvocate.
I thought that the same-sex marriage ban would fail here in Michigan due to its Democratic leanings. I also thought that most Republicans here would be either rich Detroit suburbanites or libertarian leaning rural types instead of religious fanatics, but I guess I'm wrong. posted by gyc at 9:21 PM on November 2, 2004
The votes that haven't been counted in Ohio are mostly from Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), and Lorain County (Cleveland suburbs). Cuyahoga and Lorain are going way Kerry; Hamilton is surprisingly split at the moment. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:21 PM on November 2, 2004
The Ohio Secretary of State website is much less helpful than the CNN and C-SPAN sites, I think. I can't find a county-by-county breakdown on the Ohio SOS site. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:23 PM on November 2, 2004
In the years to come, we'll be able to look back on this thread as a meter of how pessimistic, optimistic or realistic we all are. posted by orange swan at 9:23 PM on November 2, 2004
What the hell is going on with New Hampshire? Shouldn't it have been called by now? Ooh, BBC calls Colorado for Bush... posted by Orange Goblin at 9:24 PM on November 2, 2004
MSNBC just claimed they will not call Florida because of the absentee ballots.
Well they just called Florida for Bush. They still have the best US TV election coverage though. posted by gyc at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2004
WHAT
THE
FUCK
FLORIDA? posted by bingo at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2004
Michigan is mostly midwestern in it's insensibilities. It's not really liberal, it just votes Democratic because the Democratic policies are better for the bulk of the workers. Otherwise it can be a pretty bible toting place. posted by substrate at 9:25 PM on November 2, 2004
17% ages 18-24 voted, same number as in 2000. So much for rock the vote, eh? (those number might be a little off, but that seemed to be what I saw)/ posted by tomplus2 at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2004
The CBC site had NH at Kerry and then took it away. posted by dobbs at 9:26 PM on November 2, 2004
MSNBC just called Florida and Colorado for Bush... crap! posted by falconred at 9:27 PM on November 2, 2004
MSNBC suck! I'm watching it muted whilst watching the Beeb. As for the poor youth vote, when it comes to the UK election, I'm going to go on a one man crusade to get my peers voting. posted by Orange Goblin at 9:27 PM on November 2, 2004
It really is close to call. A lot of the precincts that aren't reporting are from counties with a LOT of precincts -- which are predominantly voting for kerry. posted by yevge at 9:28 PM on November 2, 2004
Bingo, I think that should be
WHAT
THE
FUCK
AMERICA? posted by dobbs at 9:28 PM on November 2, 2004
Looks like it's up to Cleveland ... posted by norm111 at 9:29 PM on November 2, 2004
Kerry's less than 100K down in Ohio, with folks still voting in Cuyahoga county. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:30 PM on November 2, 2004
What county is Cleveland? posted by yevge at 9:31 PM on November 2, 2004
yevge, Cleveland is Cuyahoga County. posted by dobbs at 9:32 PM on November 2, 2004
Cuyahoga. And some Cleveland suburbs are in Lorain. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:33 PM on November 2, 2004
Sidhedevil, where are you getting those stats? posted by protocool at 9:33 PM on November 2, 2004
Can someone with some great excel knowledge take that county breakdown and estimate how the remaining precincts will vote based on how the county has voted already? posted by yevge at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004
New Hampshire's still very close--265K Kerry, 257K Bush, 84% reporting. posted by DevilsAdvocate at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004
BBC are reporting people are still voting in Ohio, and could be for several hours.... posted by Orange Goblin at 9:34 PM on November 2, 2004
Only to do this for both so far though. posted by yupislyr at 9:44 PM on November 2, 2004
Ah fuck it. This country's fate is in the hands of fucking Cleveland? Well, fuck 'em. Fuck America. I'm ashamed to be an American. It's fucking over. Bush has won. Say hello to a theocratic state. I'm officially an elitist now. I have no faith in the populace. America, you broke my heart. You let me down. As Jefferson said, we deserve the government that we get. But, Jesus, who the fuck knew?
(cries) posted by ed at 9:45 PM on November 2, 2004
I'm pretty good at Excel, but I don't see how that would work. posted by bingo at 9:45 PM on November 2, 2004
Hm. Maybe it'd be better if we didn't try to do this all in one night. posted by psmealey at 9:46 PM on November 2, 2004
What if neither candidate gets 270 electoral votes? posted by bingo at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2004
17% ages 18-24 voted, same number as in 2000
This is the same percentage, not the same number. It could actually be higher than 2000 given the total turnout that may rival 1960. posted by pedantic at 9:48 PM on November 2, 2004
I could do it on Excel, but I'm not your monkey. posted by graventy at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004
... I mean as much as I worship at the altar of statistical sampling as any red-blooded American does, it'd be nice if we had a full, high-confidence count of all votes cast today before states were awarded to candidates by Fox, ABC and CNN. Just saying, is all. posted by psmealey at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004
More merlot, ed. There are still some good people out there. posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004
We feel you, ed. posted by muckster at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004
I'm not sure all y'all understand the onus behind the apparently surprising numbers of Bush voters. They weren't using the internet to spread the message, so I think a lot of it got missed. They're not all Freepers or whatever the vogue derogatory term is right now... some of them just get it passed traditionally at the dinner table and in the churches.
There's a whole 'nother country out there that isn't in front of your computer screens.
I don't mean to sound, well, mean, but that's how I see it and damnit, I'm going to bed.
I fully expect people to be voting in Ohio for at least another hour. In my precinct they had 960 voters * five minutes each (average or ordinance, you decide) / 3 machines = over 26 hours. Unless we had some five hundred absentee voters there are still a lot of people whose votes who won't get counted unless they're still in line. This is not, by any means, unique to my precinct. posted by codger at 9:49 PM on November 2, 2004
Bush's margin in Ohio is *growing*. Now 140k with 83% reporting.
Someone get the fat lady on the phone. posted by pmurray63 at 9:50 PM on November 2, 2004
17% ages 18-24 voted, same number as in 2000
This is the same percentage, not the same number. It could actually be higher than 2000 given the total turnout that may rival 1960.
Wait, is that the percentage of eligible 18-24 voters that voted or is that the percentage of total voters?
I'm also still very wary of Fox's call of OH for Bush. Don't they remember 2000? posted by gyc at 9:51 PM on November 2, 2004
ed, don't be such a precious moron posted by shoos at 9:52 PM on November 2, 2004
It's all Bush. The networks are working on Ohio to make it dramatic, but...it's over.
He's won the popular vote; he's won Florida. I don't understand it. My country makes no sense to me. I'm drunk.
Every election makes it clearer that we're headed towards what Mexico and Japan and Russia have alerady shown us: A 1-1/2 party system, with a permanent-minority party that has an occasional upset win but basically exists to be picked on. Fuck. posted by argybarg at 9:53 PM on November 2, 2004
pmurray, that represents the last of the rural counties and the parts of Hamilton County where voting isn't still going on. Mathematically, it's absolutely still possible for Kerry the way the voting in Cuyahoga, Lorain, and Hamilton Counties is trending. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:54 PM on November 2, 2004
Under the leadership of ignorance, we will emerge, smarter and stronger. posted by PrinceValium at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2004
Ohio margin is back down to 100K. posted by edlundart at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2004
CNN gives Ohio 100k lead... posted by Orange Goblin at 9:55 PM on November 2, 2004
Argybarg, go look at the county-by-county totals for Ohio. It's still too close to call. I'm not saying that because I'm optimistic, either; I'm saying that because people are still voting there and the most populous precincts are still outstanding.
Now, I do still cling to a shard of hope that everything left in Florida will go perfectly according to the exit polls, in which case that's still too close to call, too. But I do know that that is probably just a fantasy. It's going to be close, though. posted by Sidhedevil at 9:57 PM on November 2, 2004
gyc - you mean 2000, wherein FNC called the election for Bush causing the rest of the networks to spinelessly follow suit, thereby skewing public perception of the recount effort in Bush's favor? Yeah, they probably remember that. posted by bingbangbong at 9:58 PM on November 2, 2004
What I find interesting is that it's clear that the people in states LEAST likely to be attacked by terrorists - Wyoming, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Arkansas, for example - are the ones voting for Bush, and the people in places MOST likely to be struck, like the New York area (who've already been attacked directly and have actually buried and mourned their dead), Illinois (Chicago), California (LA/San Diego, San Fran), Massachusetts (Greater Boston) and Washington D.C. are voting for Kerry.
The Bush states are the ones most likely to be hurt by corporate domination as well.
What's going on? What are you people afraid of out there in Omaha, Sioux Falls, Billings? Do you think Al Qaeda is going to parachute a few divisions of mad mullahs down onto Main St., Midwest USA and take over? If the people in New York, who watched in horror with their own naked eyes (as opposed to CNN) as the Towers fell, feel that Kerry will do a better job of protecting them, what the hell are you worried about?
Your way of life will not likely be affected by terrorist attacks. And New York does not seem to need you to support avenging the dead of 9/11.
What a strange fear you have. posted by zoogleplex at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004
Things are starting to break in favor of President Bush -- woohoo! The best part of his winning re-election -- if indeed it does play out that way -- will be wondering how many "progressives"/liberals/democrats will move to Canada, France, Oz, or some other place. posted by davidmsc at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004
On ABC a few min ago, Ohio's Secretary of State was estimating ~130,000 provisional ballots that won't be counted until Nov 13. posted by pmurray63 at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004
Where the fuck have these people been for the last four years?
I am truly ashamed of my "fellow" Americans. Bush should have gotten beaten badly. Instead it looks like he's going to end up winning by a bigger margin than he did in 2000.
What the fuck, America? Truly, what the fuck? posted by
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posted by calwatch at 3:03 PM on November 2, 2004