A tale of two elections

November 22, 2004 9:30 AM

A tale of two elections : compare "This election did not meeta considerable number of international standards for democratic elections" with "voting procedures being used in the extremely close contest fell short in many ways of the best global practices." Ukraine 2004 election vs. US 2004 election : Despite virtually identical allegations of vote fraud and vote suppression ( backed up, in the US election, by hard data from the incumbent-friendly partisan controlled electoral system itself ), one election receives widespread international press attention, the other a nearly complete news blackout. In the contested Ukrainian election, a disparity between exit polls and the official election results - which show a "surprise" upset victory for the incumbent - are cited as evidence of fraud and the election, world media reports, did not meet international democratic electoral norms. These norms include 1) transparency of voting process, 2) equal access to voting equipment, 3) impartial professional administration of voting systems, 4) and a uniform national system : all lacking in the US 2004 election.

American machine politics of an earlier era are accepted history : does mainstream US media refusal to acknowledge a new era of machine politics indicate a press and punditocracy now compromised by class interest that aligns with the prerogatives of power and wealth ? (more inside)
posted by troutfishing (25 comments total)

"This election did not meet a considerable number of international standards for democratic elections" - in another nations recent election, international observers said that "voting procedures being used in the extremely close contest fell short in many ways of the best global practices." : A tale of two elections suggests compromised media. Ukraine 2004 election, US 2004 election. Despite virtually identical allegations of vote fraud and vote supression ( backed up, in the US election, by hard data from the incumbent-friendly partisan controlled electoral system itself ), one election receives widespread international press attention, the other a nearly complete news blackout.

In the contested Ukranian election, a disparity between exit polls and the official election results - which show a "surprise" upset victory for the incumbent - are cited as evidence of fraud and the election, world media reports, did not meet international democratic electoral norms These norms include 1) transparency of voting process, 2) equal access to voting equipment, 3) impartial professional administration of voting systems, 4) and a uniform national system : all lacking in the US 2004 election, in which exit poll data which suggested a win for the challenger was "adjusted" in dubious and arcane ways to sync exit poll data with actual vote tallies. Professional statistical analysis supports the vote rigging hypothesis ( Freeman Study, Berkeley Study ) and one prominent Republican pollster states "Something is definitely wrong". Official data voter testimony suggest vote suppression by a number of methods including maldistribution of voting machines by a partisan of the incumbent in control of electoral machinery (a violation of UN Electoral guidelines) , to deprive the challengers's stronghold areas of voting equipment are ignored as are professional statistical analyses and controlled rigging via various mechanisms, testimony of disenfranchised voters, and large and growing body of research on the subject. International observers said that the election fell short of best international practices. American machine politics of an earlier era are accepted history : does mainstream US media refusal to acknoweldge a new era of machine politics indicate a press and punditocracy now compromised by a class interest aligning with the perogatives of power and wealth ?
posted by troutfishing at 9:31 AM on November 22, 2004

no
posted by Spacelegoman at 9:35 AM on November 22, 2004

You link rich post on the InterWeb has uncovered what the mainstream media refuses to.... namely that I cheated and stole the election.


muahahahha
posted by George W. Bush at 9:37 AM on November 22, 2004

dude, you lost. get over it.
posted by angry modem at 9:39 AM on November 22, 2004

dude, you lost. get over it.

I totally disagree. Rage, rage against the machine. Just don't do it in an echo chamber. It wastes your time.
posted by loquax at 9:42 AM on November 22, 2004

Best. Comment. Evah.

Franklin County, Ohio voting machine assignments ( by Bob Fitrakis - see link above for original )

Shows how there were more registered voters per machine as Kerry support went up.

Shows how there were more active voters per machine as Kerry support went up.

Shows how the number of voters per machine was pretty constant or goes down a little. (i.e., it is probable that most machines were operating at their full rate that day). The reason that slightly fewer were processed per machine in high-D precincts could be because of differences in poll worker training and/or inefficiencies due to the large lines.
posted by troutfishing at 9:43 AM on November 22, 2004

Karl loves you troutfishing! Keep up the good work!
posted by George W. Bush at 9:45 AM on November 22, 2004

Loquax - please, kind sir, could I have some more grueladvice ?

And, could you also please point me to an unused, large media megaphone ?

I hear they're just lying about somewhere, maybe in the pointless forest.
posted by troutfishing at 9:46 AM on November 22, 2004

bwahahahahahaha ! "Senator Richard Lugar, the senior US observer of the Ukrainian presidential elections said that the government helped rig the vote in favor of the pro-Moscow Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovich. Meanwhile, Kiev city council refused to recognize the results of Ukraine's presidential runoff and urged the nation's parliament follow suit. The move came after two other cities in Ukraine's opposition-dominated west, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivks, refused to recognize the disputed results. Both cities proclaimed opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko the winner of Sunday's vote, even though official results appeared to hand victory to his pro-Russia rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. "It is now apparent that a concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse was enacted with either the leadership or cooperation of governmental authorities," Senator Lugar, the chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters.
With 99.14 percent of polling stations reporting, the pro-Russian prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich, secured 49.42 percent of the vote, compared with 46.69 of Western-leaning Yushchenko."
posted by troutfishing at 9:56 AM on November 22, 2004

troutfishing: thanks for keeping this out in front.

Unfortunately, the mainstream media in the US seems to take the absence of (or their ignorance of) evidence of systematic nationwide vote fraud as evidence of absence of any significant voting fraud. They also seem to operate under the mistaken assumption that if there are multiple studies in disagreement on an issue (like vote irregularities) then they cancel each other out.

I've seen some people discuss re-voting (as may happen in NC for a couple of races). If the whole nation were to re-vote for president tomorrow, I would imagine that Bush would take an even wider margin. As much as many Americans care very much about both the process and the outcome, many more Americans don't. The sore-loser meme is pretty powerful in this country.

On preview re: Lugar's comment: It happened. I was wondering whether "not drawing attention to exit poll issues" or "ensuring another pro western administration" would win out. Seems like they know that most people are ignorant and won't think twice about the discrepancy.
posted by rdub at 10:06 AM on November 22, 2004

SORELOSERMAN! BWAH HA HA!!!
posted by jpoulos at 10:19 AM on November 22, 2004

Spacelegoman: "no": mildly funny the first time it was done; now we're on use #8,439. Let it go.
George W. Bush: shitty, unoriginal gimmick.
angry modem: boring attention whore.

Whether or not you agree with troutfishing's findings, you can't deny he's amassed quite a bit of data, none of which has been properly refuted by any Republicans here. I've read all the VoteFraudFilter posts and I've yet to see a comment from the opposing side that takes this accusation seriously. You don't have to be gracious winners, but I'd feel much better if it at least seemed that you cared about honesty in democracy.
posted by Optimus Chyme at 10:28 AM on November 22, 2004

troutfishingagenda.com
posted by orange clock at 10:28 AM on November 22, 2004

[zooming in on north america from satellite view of earth]

voiceover: somewhere on the continent...

[zooming in on massachusetts]

voiceover: in a secure undisclosed location...

[zooming on on inconspicuous grey building]

voiceover: is a man...

[pass through roof, zooming in on man in a dark room typing in the blue glow of his monitor]

voiceover: who holds the key to the fate of the most powerful nation on earth!

[atomic explosion on screen. cut to grainy tv news image]

tv spokeswoman: and this election appears to be over.
black screen, voiceover: ignored by the media...

[cut to troutfishing running down long dark corridor chased by two g-men]

g-man: stop right there!
black screen, voiceover: hunted by his own government...

[cut to troutfishing taking cover with pistol behind metal desk as dick cheney and several thugs in suits pepper it with rifle fire from the background]

black screen, voiceover: fighting against all odds...

[cut to troutfishing typing furiously as 3d images move on screen]

troutfishing: the files... where are the files. got it!
black screen, voiceover: for the truth.

[cut to moving flyby of earth with satellite zooming by]

voiceover: from the people who brought you y2karl's Iraq War Diaries...

[cut to panning shot of burning city]

voiceover: comes a film about a man who would not be silenced...

[cut to grainy tv image of george w. bush grinning evilly]

voiceover: by anyone.

[cut to large title on black screen]

voiceover: ELECTION.

[cut to troutfishing with flashlight in dark room with row of diebold central tabulators behind him. as he moves towards the camera, a glowing red eye lights up on one of the machines and it slowly begins to unfold its arms and rise. cut to shot of troutfishing from behind whirling around and pointing his flashlight at the camera. dramatic chord. cut to shot of diebold robot with glowing red eye charging at camera. cut to release date on black screen.]

voiceover: coming january 2005.

[fadeout]
posted by Krrrlson at 10:35 AM on November 22, 2004

Thanks Troutfishing. Remember what Oblio found out (via the Pointless Forest): "You don't have to have a point to have a point."

In this case I take that to mean that you don't have to be concerned about overturning the results to object to election fraud.

Perhaps if the disenfranchised were bikini-clad babes with beer?
posted by ahimsakid at 10:36 AM on November 22, 2004

trout, keep it up! cos if we're spreading this kind of, er, democracy, the 'free' world is fucked.
posted by garfield at 10:36 AM on November 22, 2004

Despite virtually identical allegations of vote fraud and vote supression...

I think it's a bit much to propose an equivalence between the kind of fraud, voter intimidation and suppression, and other dirty tricks that have been alleged to have occurred in the Ukrainian elections vs. what happened in the US. The allegations aren't remotely "identical."

Clearly, reports of localized fraud and monkey business at US polling places need to be followed up and the results of investigation reported on. Clearly, the use of electronic voting machines that don't leave audit trails is inviting big problems, whether actual big problems occurred this time around or not, and this should be addressed immediately through improved technology and processes.

Over in the Ukraine, however, it is credibly alleged that supporters of the incumbent poisoned the challenger (get a good look at Yuschenko's face lately? He looks like a smallpox survivor.) In today's Guardian, it is reported that

Interfax reported that opposition offices in Luhansk were attacked and the staff beaten. A bomb was found in a polling station in Vinnitsi. A policeman guarding a polling booth in the Cherkassy region was attacked and died from head injuries. The cause of the attack was unclear and the station did not seem affected.
Witnesses confirmed widespread media reports of busloads of voters arriving in Kiev from the pro-Yanukovich east of Ukraine to cast absentee votes.

Poisoning, (attempted) bombing, beatings, murder of poll-watchers, wholesale importation of sham voters... no serious person alleges that such things have happened in the US. I'm not defending our recent elections as being utterly clean, just asking for a little sense of perspective here...

By the way, Optimus Chyme, just as a datapoint, I'm a Republican (though not a social conservative by any means) and I care deeply about the fairness of US elections. I have no desire to "win dirty," and I hope that every credible allegation of voter fraud and initimidation is followed up on and investigated thoroughly.
posted by enrevanche at 10:42 AM on November 22, 2004

dude, you lost. get over it.

and

I've read all the VoteFraudFilter posts and I've yet to see a comment from the opposing side that takes this accusation seriously.

But, dudes, what I wonder is how can there even be an opposing side to this issue? Surely voting irregularities are worthy of attention and fixing, even if they don't change any election results. I am indeed over the fact that Kerry lost; but I can still be outraged about the fact that votes didn't get counted. It's an issue in its own right. Even if you think I'm voting for the wrong guy, letting anyone get away with stealing my vote puts yours in danger, sometime down the road.

And if the alleged other side doesn't get that, they sure will when the tides turn and they're the ones losing votes into the ether, I'll bet. This "winning is everything" trend going on in American politics right now is getting us to give up more and more of what we're supposed to be fighting over.
posted by hilatron at 10:48 AM on November 22, 2004

The sore-loser meme is pretty powerful in this country.

Except, you know, if you take into consideration that this isn't an example of poor sportsmanship. The issue is not who won the election. Instead it is whether or not fair, transparent elections actually happened.

If the whole nation were to re-vote for president tomorrow, I would imagine that Bush would take an even wider margin.

First, I do not support a nationwide mulligan without serious changes to the way voting happens. Doing the same thing over, repeating the same mistakes from 2000, 2002 and 2004 would not further validate the results.

Second, I don't think a do-over is in the best interest of democracy or America. Though you suspect that Bush would win by a wider margin, I believe the best GOTV effort is not done by organizations or people, but by a crushing defeat when you expected a comfortable victory.

I'll repeat my mantra, which is well founded in the law of this land. Elections must be fair, equally accessible and transparent. They can not be partisan hackery. We've not had such an election in many years. The only reason it's become an issue in the eye of the public is that we now have elections decided by a few electoral votes, in some cases favoring the minority vote getter.

On preview, orange clock, comments like you just made, along with the numerous comments Optimus Chyme points out are examples of why Metafilter does not do politics well. While troutfishing has been a vocal voter's rights advocate here on Metafilter, calling his desire for honest discussion about reported irregularities in the most recent vote an agenda is intentionally inflamatory. Where's your defense of what happened? Where's your rebuttal to his allegations? Why use grade school tactics if you sincerely believe this is nothing more than partisanship on troutfishings part?

Conservatives, Republicans, Christians, Liberals, Democrats, Agnostics, Moderates, Independants and any other religious persuasion. The sum total of those labels (and others too numerous to list) and who they represent is America. Fair, honest and accountable elections are in the best interest of every single citizen. Saying otherwise is either ignorant or ungracious, undeserved end zone celebration.

On further preview, I ♥ enrevanche.
posted by sequential at 10:49 AM on November 22, 2004

enrevanche - methods of vote rigging and vote suppression in the US are less violent ( for now ) but equally pervasive. Here is the OSCE on the Ukrainian election :

" "....The deficiencies have not been addressed. The abuse of state resources in favor of the Prime Minister continued, as well as an overwhelming media bias in his favor."

The Head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Mr. Doros Christodoulides, said: "There were some encouraging aspects which we did not see in the first round, such as a televised debate of the main candidates on state TV and redress, even if only partial, to the imbalanced media coverage. But we are greatly disappointed by the inflammatory campaign language, which increased prior to the second round."

Mr. Marek Maciej Siwiec, Head of the European Parliament delegation added: "The opportunity to improve the electoral process between the two rounds was not used. However, some improvement on media coverage was noticed. It is encouraging that the people of this country did once again express great interest in the election, manifesting a strong democratic spirit. Our delegation will now report back to the parliament with suggested recommendations."

"The figures and reports about the unjustified increase in the use of absentee voter certificates and the even higher increase of mobile voting, cast a shadow over the genuineness of the results," said Mr. Lucio Malan, Head of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly delegation. "Moreover the turnout in some territorial election commissions in Donetsk, exceeding 98.5 per cent, and increasing by 21 per cent after the first round, are unrealistic and highly suspicious." "

That sounds rather familiar to me.

___________

But, I think the Franklin county voting machine distribution graph says almost all that needs to be said :

The head of Ohio's electyion system is a committed Bush partisan - and, oddly enough, Democratic leaning areas were starved of voting machines.

That graph - I believe - is the final machines placed tally and, furthermore, the majority of "funky voting machine" reports came out of democratic areas. Many precincts which nominally had 1/2 to 2/3 of the macines necessary for expected voter loads found that one or more of their voting machines were broken from the 'git go, and - further - reports of machines which registered votes for John Kerry as votes for George W. Bush were pervasive.

Oddly, Republican strongholds seem not to have had any problems of such magnitude. I wonder why.
________________

orange clock - You're damn right. I DO have an agenda.

It's called "not lying back and watching as American Democracy gets eviscerated by extremist Republican moral relativists willing to do anything to win, including committing massive fraud" .

So yes, I do have an agenda.

So do you - you're just unwilling to admit it.

Meanwhile,

How the Ohio election was rigged for Bush
November 22, 2004, by Bob Fitrakis

"Following four community public hearings in Ohio about election irregularities and voter suppression - two in the capitol, Columbus, and one each in Cincinnati and Cleveland - a clear pattern and practice of voter disenfranchisement is emerging.

In order to understand the extent of the voter suppression in the inner city of Columbus and Franklin County, overwhelmingly Democratic wards, start with the phrase: "Machines Placed By Close Of Polls" on the last page of the county's 17-page voting machine allocation report.
This phrase at the end of the spreadsheet may be the key in unraveling a deliberate and unprecedented plan to repress African American and poor central city voters. In statistics, when you see a bizarre definition or measurement, it sends up red flags. Why doesn't the Franklin County Board of Elections have a number for "Machines Placed By Opening Of Polls"?

It now appears that the Franklin County BOE placed scores of machines too late in the day to alleviate the long lines of voters who gathered to vote before work and at lunchtime."
posted by troutfishing at 10:58 AM on November 22, 2004

The "no" was in response to the inane loaded question at the end of his lovingly crafted diatrabe - I am in no way a fan of GWB. The newsmedia doesn't cover this because there's no hard evidence, just a bunch of probabilities and, um, internet messageboard gossip. The vast majority of voters feel that it was a fair election, otherwise the newsmedia would be covering it, since they run stories they think will interest their audience, because they are corporations.

Metafilter doesn't do politics well because politics sucks, and brings out the worst in people.
posted by Spacelegoman at 10:59 AM on November 22, 2004

sequential: Except, you know, if you take into consideration that this isn't an example of poor sportsmanship. The issue is not who won the election. Instead it is whether or not fair, transparent elections actually happened.

I'm just saying I don't see a lot of passion about fair elections out there. I know people on both sides of the aisle who do not believe that either the 2000 or 2004 presidential elections were legitimate, but none of them are particularly incensed about it. It amazes me too, but I see more passion about sports than voting, even in a lot of otherwise intelligent people.
posted by rdub at 11:00 AM on November 22, 2004

"you can't deny he's amassed quite a bit of data"

He's amassed a great deal of dubious statistical cherry picking. No hard evidence. No paper trail. No suspects.

"none of which has been properly refuted by any Republicans here."

Most of the users here who find this stupid are democrats. Why do the republicans need to refute it? No one has been accused of anything.

"You don't have to be gracious winners, but I'd feel much better if it at least seemed that you cared about honesty in democracy."

As someone who hates Bush, I think it's time to stop posting this crap to the MetaFilter front page several times a week.
posted by y6y6y6 at 11:07 AM on November 22, 2004

Spacelegoman:

"The newsmedia doesn't cover this because there's no hard evidence, just a bunch of probabilities and, um, internet messageboard gossip."

No hard evidence of what?

Insecure, unverified voting machines: check
Voting machines acknowledged to have lost votes: check
Early ballots that didn't arrive before the election: check

The list goes on. These are not conspiracy theories or internet message board speculations. These are facts.

"The vast majority of voters feel that it was a fair election"

The vast majority of voters feel that way, because the news media has, by and large, told them it was a fair election.
posted by rdub at 11:09 AM on November 22, 2004

Non-coverage by American mainstream news media does not necessarily equal non-issue.

Also, I don't think non-right-right-right-wing Americans should be so surprised that a good number of people in their country would be down for four more years of Bushtasticness. Just give it up, already. You can't find the moonlight. Just immigrate to Canada.

Honestly, we could use a population increase. Just bring snow suits for the kids.
posted by Kleptophoria! at 11:14 AM on November 22, 2004