What is a likely voter

October 18, 2000 11:30 PM

What is a likely voter This morning, while listening to Democracy Now, I heard something very interesting. it seems that the Republicans lobbied Gallup to redefine a 'likely voter' for this election season's polling. It seems Gallup is now defining a 'likely voter' as someone who voted in the last three presidential elections ('88, '92, '96). This leads to voters who are older (at least 30) and to people who participated in the last election to elect a Republican. Furthermore this polling method would have shown Bob Dole winning the 1996 election. No wonder Shrub is in the lead. Savannah Now describes the pool of likely voters "tend to lean Republican."
posted by DragonBoy (2 comments total)

Savannah Now has a great candidate bio section...felt like i was reading strange, twisted personal ads. Lots of fun stuff there actually...a mix n match candidate game, grading each one on the issues--the results are scary.
I'm not sure if i like "at least 30" as being older, but it definately seems like the polls, those marvelous things, are as tweaked as they always are...how does one lobby Gallup?
posted by th3ph17 at 1:00 AM on October 19, 2000

Gallup addresses the definition of "likely voter" without reference to GOP lobbying. It was noted in some quarters that this year Gallup has used "likely voters" all year instead of waiting for the fall campaign. A clue to the underlying controversy can be found in reactions to the 1992 polling by Gallup that showed Clinton leading, a controversy that had intensified by the 1998 congressional campaign, and has possibly contributed to the new prominence of the Battleground and Zogby polling groups over venerable Gallup.
posted by dhartung at 7:20 AM on October 19, 2000