Comments on: Fears growing that an H5 pandemic is likely

Fears growing that an H5 pandemic is likely

spock — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 17:49:00 -0800

"Fears growing that an H5 pandemic is likely" A followup to 37271 (Dec. 2004) - "It appears this virus is progressively adapting to an increasing range of mammals in which it can cause infection, and the range of disease in human beings is wide and clearly includes encephalitis." The New England Journal of Medicine says "These cases suggest that the spectrum of influenza H5N1 is wider than previously thought." The WHO is encouraging the stockpiling of bird flu vaccines now. There is concern in Britain that they are not moving fast enough.

By: Balisong

Balisong — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 17:59:48 -0800

I small an end times epidemic. Actually, the world is due for something grand to happen the likes of which havent yet been seen on this planet. But ya know.. I still got work tomorrow...

By: Balisong

Balisong — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 18:01:41 -0800

I smEll an end times epidemic.

By: keswick

keswick — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 18:13:55 -0800

God, I hope so. I really can't take much more of this bullshit.

By: n9

n9 — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:03:11 -0800

tell that to my 18 month old daughter, asshat.

By: nightchrome

nightchrome — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:19:44 -0800

mmmmmmmmm fear

By: crazy finger

crazy finger — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:31:05 -0800

tell that to my 18 month old daughter, asshat. How dare you bring a child into this dangerous world!

By: WC_Helmets

WC_Helmets — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 19:37:48 -0800

talk to the pandemic hand because the face ain't listening.

By: keswick

keswick — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 20:42:58 -0800

By: Hildago

Hildago — Wed, 16 Feb 2005 23:25:13 -0800

I'm too busy dying from avian flu, sars, and the deadly flu pandemics of the last two years running which have so decimated our population.

By: joedharma

joedharma — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 00:43:51 -0800

After reading this Im ready to give away all my clothes and wait for the rapture. Can I take my idols with me?

By: the cuban

the cuban — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 02:21:56 -0800

"If you have children here tonight.... I am sorry to tell you this. They are not special.... I know you think they're special; I'm aware of that. I'm just trying to tell you, they're not." --Bill Hicks Unless, one day, n9's daughter finds a cure for the H5N1. That would be pretty special.

By: Meridian

Meridian — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 04:03:32 -0800

Balisong But ya know.. I still got work tomorrow... I was just imagining how I'd feel if my wife, my family, my children, or my friends all were victims of a sudden pandemic and I'd lost the last few days or hours of being with them because I had to go to my meaningless job and do my meaningless work, my world essentially coming to an end while I was sitting in my shitty little cubicle just to earn a few bucks. It makes me think I should I be doing something better with my life and truly appreciating the people around me that I take for granted. For the victims, it sounds like an unpleasant way to die: "In southern Vietnam, a four-year-old boy presented with severe diarrhea, followed by seizures, coma, and death."

By: n9

n9 — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 04:22:07 -0800

I'm too busy dying from avian flu, sars, and the deadly flu pandemics of the last two years running which have so decimated our population. This is the avian flu and the deadly flu pandemic of the last two years. They were just waiting for it to infect a pig at the same time as human flu and guess what? Best part: president dipshit has messed up our vaccination supply lines so badly that there is little hope that we will be able to stockpile vaccines -- something that could actually same millions of lives, but won't.

By: IndigoJones

IndigoJones — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 04:47:58 -0800

Best line: The US has already contracted for four million doses For more info on what n9 is talking about, go here. (Yeah, yeah, I know, socialist rag, tendentious, bad. You don't like it, go find your own sources)

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 07:08:54 -0800

The responses of people to this purely news/science post (as to the previous thread) is truly fascinating. We have those who are (apparently) reminded by the post of the apocalyptic rider of "death" in the Bible and "pestilence" as part of the sign of the "last days". Then we have our caustic/sarcastic reactions to all things religion (and replies by those who missed the sarcasm). We also have our macho mockings that they've heard the warnings before and since it hasn't happened in their lifetimes - it can't happen again. None of these reactions has the slightest effect on the development and spread of a particular virus strain that scientists have been watching closely for several years. This post outlines that as they watch, their worst fears are being confirmed. Those who need a review of what a real pandemic can do may want to review the history of the Spanish Influenza. Fear is an emotion that can be debillitating, but you aren't going to live long without a healthy fear of things that can shorten your life. We do live in a time when science has the ability to blunt a pandemic, but only if it's warnings are actually listened to. All the science in the world isn't going to save you if nobody takes the necessary steps in time. This is the role of governments - to protect their population. They respond to the will of the people. If enough people point and say "Hey, why aren't you taking this seriously?" they may get off their collective butts in time. Blogs have demonstrated the ability to focus attention and public outrage on various issues, and will probably continue to do so in the future. Based on the reactions of our small sample commenters in the two threads on this subject however, I can see why governments are in no rush to address this issue in a timely manner. Perhaps (in the U.S.) they are hoping that a larger percentage of elderly will be affected and help in solving that pesky problem with Social Security funding. Like most sane people, I dearly hope the fears of a pandemic do not come true. But if it does, I would hate to see that millions of lives (including mine and those close to me) could have been spared if the proper warnings had been acted upon.

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 07:21:00 -0800

While the Spanish Flu usually only infected less than 1/3 of the population in most places and killed only a fraction of those infected - "by the end of January 2005 there had been 54 human cases of H5N1 infection, all in Vietnam and Thailand, and 41 deaths." That is a 76% mortality rate.

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 07:38:12 -0800

While most concern has centered on SE Asia, I was not aware of the fact that in April 2004, Ottawa ordered the slaughter of 80 per cent of the farm poultry in B.C. in an attempt to contain an outbreak of avian flu. That is significantly closer to (my) home. Q: When they kill millions of birds to stop the spread of the flu, what do they do with all the dead chickens? A: "...most of the birds – as many as 80 per cent, according to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency – may end up in the food supply. CFIA officials will test SAMPLES (emphasis mine) from various flocks. If the samples come back free from disease, birds from those flocks will go to market." Holy crap. If that is what they do in Canada, I hate to ask what they do with them in SE Asia.

By: BobFrapples

BobFrapples — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:02:36 -0800

You mean, Weesa gonna DIIIE?

By: bardic

bardic — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:08:10 -0800

Jesus Christ Spock. You... you really have earned your moniker. Beyond that, I teach highschool, so I've got enough germ-resistance to take on any silly avian flu. Bitches.

By: Prospero

Prospero — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:08:45 -0800

Thanks for the posts, spock. (I mean that without sarcasm.)

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:10:20 -0800

Following quotes from http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2005/2/emw202815.htm: "Recent events in Asia have created what some experts believe is a "perfect storm" of circumstances that increase the risk that an influenza pandemic could emerge. These circumstances include the endemic spread of avian influenza in domestic poultry populations, public health problems related to the tsunami, and the growing numbers of human cases of avian influenza." "...recent epidemiological and laboratory studies suggest that the virus "may be evolving in ways that increasingly favor the start of a pandemic." The virus has reportedly become hardier, surviving several days longer in the environment than earlier strains. It has also expanded its adaptability to a range of mammalian hosts, including humans, tigers and domestic cats." [A new study] "will concentrate on possible event trajectories in the first few months of a global influenza pandemic, and the global financial and business implications." (You don't have to die for a pandemic to affect your little world - although that remains a possibility.)

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:32:42 -0800

Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (one of the necessary steps to something actually becoming a pandemic) has now been suspected. And from the BBC: Bird flu cases 'underestimated' - "The main focus has been on patients with respiratory illnesses but clearly that's not the only thing we should be looking for. "Therefore the number of cases of H5N1 may have been underestimated." "Dr Farrar said the presence of the virus in the faeces suggested that it could be spread from person to person - especially where people are living in crowded conditions."

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:48:05 -0800

No proven connection but I find these posts to the PoultrySite Health Discussion Forum troubling now. One wonders where these poultry producers are located. It doesn't sound like SE Asia.

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 08:59:59 -0800

OK. I regret that last post.

By: Hildago

Hildago — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 09:15:41 -0800

This is the avian flu and the deadly flu pandemic of the last two years. They were just waiting for it to infect a pig at the same time as human flu and guess what? Best part: president dipshit has messed up our vaccination supply lines so badly that there is little hope that we will be able to stockpile vaccines -- something that could actually same millions of lives, but won't. Will you give you me $100 when this doesn't become a pandemic? If millions of people in America die from this, I will do the same for you.

By: Hildago

Hildago — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 09:16:21 -0800

That is, give you $100. I won't die for you, regardless of syntax.

By: soyjoy

soyjoy — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 09:49:05 -0800

It goes without saying - but here, I gotta say it - that I absolutely don't want to see a pandemic. But it also needs to be said that the one chance we have to avoid massive breakouts of zoonotic diseases like this one (even if not this very one) is to radically rethink animal agriculture as a cultural priority. Most of the deadly diseases we now have to fear (or, depending on who you are, breezily dismiss) have come from humans' unnaturally close contact with animals, and most of those from the practice of using them for food. That includes AIDS, SARS, BSE, tuberculosis, E.Coli, listeria, salmonella, and campylobacter, among others - and many people are still unaware that the conveniently-named "Spanish Flu," the most devastating pandemic in recorded history, is now traced to hog farming in the US (probably Iowa), where pigs picked up avian flu and it became "Swine Flu." Feeding animals to more and more of the human population will require keeping increasing numbers of them in close confinement - from factory farms to inner-city live-animal markets - and that will continue to encourage the spread and mutation of deadly diseases. And on the other side, the West's overuse of antibiotics in food animals is helping bacterial strains develop ever-greater resistance to our medical treatments. These are simple scientific facts, even if unwelcome. For the "can't happen here" crowd, you'll enjoy The Onion's take on the situation from a couple weeks ago. I found this really curious for The Onion - the humor here, if there is any, depends on this turning out to be nothing. If so, what - is the Onion going to do a follow-up saying "see? Told you so"? Meanwhile, if as it appears this continues to get more certainly worse, this "humor article" remains available as a testament to them being the most idiotic assholes on the planet. Just seems like a strange choice for them...

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 10:06:02 -0800

"Alarmist" is one of those terms used to marginalize. In this case we are talking about the WHO and the doctors "on the ground" investigating these cases. Their job is to alarm the world when they spot trouble in the world of health. If a fire alarm goes off and you smell smoke and see people being carried burning from the building you would have to be a moron to call the fire alarm "alarmist" and ignore the warnings. The latest information is causing a worried eye to be cast on past deaths that were not then considered H5N1 related such as these in the Phillippines. Will you give you me $100 when this doesn't become a pandemic? If millions of people in America die from this, I will do the same for you. See? It is beginning to have an economic impact already! Best part: president dipshit has messed up our vaccination supply lines so badly... Comments like this only give partisans another reason to downplay the potential seriousness of the problem. Spare us. We don't need any extra barriers to people listening to the clear-eyed scientific facts of the problem before us.

By: Mitheral

Mitheral — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 13:31:45 -0800

Hildago: Will you give you me $100 when this doesn't become a pandemic? If millions of people in America die from this, I will do the same for you. You should probably be paying out at a 100:1 or so Hildago to make it a fair bet. One of these pandemics appears every century or so. Though the coming pandemic, whether this year or 10-15 years from now will be the first helped out by wide spread rapid transportation in the form of airplanes and interstates. Glad I live in Canada where the my evil, socialist, health care providing, government guarantees the vaccine suppliers a market. I wonder if we'll start seeing X-Prize style prises offered by goverments and charities for cures rather than treatments. Might address the disincentive for health care companies to search for treatments over cures.

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 15:20:40 -0800

Glad I live in Canada where the my evil, socialist, health care providing, government guarantees the vaccine suppliers a market. I wouldn't want to overly count on getting a vaccination. If they're available to us, we'll probably get them for free or a very, very reduced price (and freebies for the truly poor)... but the problem is twofold: (a) is there a vaccine? (b) do we have thirty million doses? When the pandemic strikes, it's going to be a bugger to counter. 'tis the nature of pandemics: if a virus is easily controlled, it ain't pandemic...

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 15:21:48 -0800

(everyone that wants to be really scared needs to get ahold of Regenesis, the 13-episode biotech drama that ran on Canada's Showtime network. it has pandemics. eeek!)

By: spock

spock — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 17:10:26 -0800

Does anyone have access to http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/307/5712/1027a??? (requires log-in - free access log-in doesn't get you there)

By: n9

n9 — Thu, 17 Feb 2005 19:27:23 -0800

well you know what they say about statistics and probability. they are sciences that tell you what will happen, unless it doesn't. these things are tough because the more you know the more justified you are in being afraid. i am a computer scientist and i was more scared of y2k than anyone i knew, but look what happened. it takes courage to be happy even under the best of circumstances. all it takes courage to bolster the courage of those around you even under the worst of circumstances. all we've ever been able to do is hope that there is something more to the nature of mass events and world dynamics than what we perceive. (i do wish i could jump off a cliff into a volcano and make problems like this go away for everyone else. i yearn for there to be such an easy sacrifice, but here in reality all there is are a sequence of potentially uneasy days to get through.)

By: spock

spock — Fri, 18 Feb 2005 08:30:39 -0800

Don't Worry, Be Happy ? (sound warning)

By: spock

spock — Tue, 22 Feb 2005 20:01:31 -0800

Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday that scientists believe it is highly likely that the virus that has swept through bird populations in Asia will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans. . . "Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza," said Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3. Also: Japanese researchers found flies infected with the bird flu virus after an outbreak among chickens in Japan last year, a Health Ministry official said on Tuesday, a finding that underscores the ability of the deadly virus to jump between species. . . It was likely that this was the first time anywhere that the transmission of the bird flu virus to flies had been confirmed, he added. Also Canada takes the lead in government funding H5N1 avian flu vaccine trials CDC reports : "Of the 11 cases since the end of December 2004, 10 were fatal. . . "The good news is these viruses have not yet acquired the ability to transmit from person to person in a sustained manner. The key word is sustained," Uyeki says. "There have been a few instances of limited person-to-person transmission. This highlights the potential for a pandemic in the future."

By: spock

spock — Fri, 25 Feb 2005 11:49:00 -0800

Argument that this is just natures way of self-correcting for overpopulation of the planet? </stupid>

By: spock

spock — Sun, 27 Feb 2005 21:51:06 -0800

The U.S. government has stored two million doses of avian flu vaccine for possible emergency use and is testing whether the inoculation holds its potency, the Associated Press reported Thursday. Well, that takes care of the population of NEBRASKA.

By: spock

spock — Sun, 27 Feb 2005 22:04:18 -0800

Indianapolis Star editorial: 'Prepare as if we were going to war' "Our position is: The nation needs to begin preparing for the potential threat of a flu pandemic." Today, another human victim was reported.

By: spock

spock — Mon, 28 Feb 2005 10:41:05 -0800

This morning, reports of a new victim in Vietnam: A 14 year old girl whose 21 year old brother preceded her in diagnosis. The brother is in critical condition. Cases like this raise fears of human-to-human transmission, which is feared for a pandemic scenario - though the actual method of their infection is not yet established.

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Tue, 01 Mar 2005 18:16:25 -0800

CBC Radio has been giving extensive coverage re: the upcoming pandemic. Today's report states that Canada is well-prepared for it: vaccines are stockpiled, research into new vaccines continues, and containment plans are in place. My gut-level suspicion is that when the pandemic occurs, the federal government may issue a transportation lock-down. It would not surprise me were the war measures act invoked in order to enforce the lock-down. We are in for some very, very interesting times.

By: spock

spock — Mon, 07 Mar 2005 05:18:12 -0800

Vietnamese Health Worker May Be First With Bird Flu: "infections among health-care workers or patients' family members would raise suspicion that human-to-human virus transmission has taken place. . . . Vietnamese health officials said the cause of the man's infection isn't known, and indicated that he may have also had potential exposure to infected poultry. The nurse carried a 21- year-old bird flu patient on a stretcher and provided direct treatment at the Thai Thuy District Health-Care Center, said Dao Trong Bich, deputy director of the center. The patient was later transferred to a hospital in Hanoi and is in critical condition."

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Mon, 07 Mar 2005 08:00:07 -0800

"indicated that he may have also had potential exposure to infected poultry" Fingers crossed. Guess we'll see within the week; he'd have been a carrier in close contact with a lot of people. The guy he was treating got the bird flu by drinking raw duck's blood. Ick!

By: spock

spock — Wed, 09 Mar 2005 09:42:18 -0800

Health officials in Vietnam have identified two more people who have contracted the H5N1 bird flu virus. What is particularly alarming in these cases is that they appear to have contracted the virus from relatives who were also stricken. The two people had no other exposure to the disease other than through human-to-human contact. Further, neither of these two people are showing any symptoms. This may be an indication that there are more people who actually have the virus than have presented with symptoms. If this is the case, the disease could be spreading silently. . . . . . This report is only two hours old and I can't vouch for the source. If confirmed however, it would not surprise me. I don't quite get the "no symptoms" part. Does that mean that they are simply a carrier, or does it mean that the virus has mutated into something less dangerous? "Stay tuned", I guess.

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Wed, 09 Mar 2005 11:34:33 -0800

Or does it mean they get to be carriers for a month before they suddenly take ill and die. 'cause that's about as bad as it could get: symptom-free while it incubates and spreads for a good long time, then a 75% mortality rate.

By: spock

spock — Wed, 09 Mar 2005 11:48:56 -0800

Reuters is now apparently confirming the suspicion of human to human transmission. New Scientist goes into more depth.

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Wed, 09 Mar 2005 12:03:55 -0800

Military Bioweapon? Hyperbolic what-if, afaict. But a couple of interesting points, including military concern of a natural pandemic, economic effect of same,

By: spock

spock — Thu, 10 Mar 2005 11:12:02 -0800

Symptom-free bird flu cases pose no risk - WHO

By: spock

spock — Sat, 12 Mar 2005 06:39:21 -0800

Second Nurse Suspected to Have Bird Flu in Vietnam: "not clear yet if the 41-year-old female nurse caught the sickness from the patient or in another way".

By: squirrel

squirrel — Sat, 12 Mar 2005 20:09:11 -0800

n9, you named your daughter Asshat? Do you call her Assie? ;^>

By: spock

spock — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 07:10:30 -0800

Good article on the difficulties of determining the fatality rates of a developing sickness. Also on the challenges for testing labs in SE Asia. This last point makes me suspect the report that the 2nd nurse that got sick tested negative for h5n1. Earlier negatives have been found positive with retesting and his symptoms sound identical. In other news, bird flu kills thousands of chickens in North Korea's capital (unknown if it is h5n1). Finally, not sure when this thread will be closed, but after a metatalk complaint about it, I'd just like to say (As to why I have continued to post in the open thread ("link dump"): 1) I believe that this could be one of the most significant news stories of 2005. It isn't going away. The only question is how it is going to develop. 2) If others were considering posting on the subject, I'm hoping that they will do a search and find the previous threads (including this one). I intend to keep it updated until it is closed. 3) For a story such as this, I think that authoritative sources (links) are more educational than uneducated opinion. I've simply been posting to stories that shed more light on the developing subject (including those that might ease concerns - such as that non-symptomatic cases are probably not a danger to spread the disease.

By: spock

spock — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 09:15:21 -0800

Oops. forgot a link (above): Good article on the difficulties of determining the fatality rates of a developing sickness. Also on the challenges for testing lab conditions in SE Asia.

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 09:53:59 -0800

What MetaTalk complaint? Link, please. Seems bloody stupid to me that there could be any complaint.

By: spock

spock — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 17:32:29 -0800

Here you go, fff: http://metatalk.metafilter.com/mefi/9222 The following link is passed along without comment: Get healthy now to prepare your immune system for bird flu outbreak. Alright. One comment: Is this just the first of many attempting to capitalize financially on the public's concern? (Dumb question)

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:46:47 -0800

My god. What an ass. I thought I posted the links that started this thread off, but now I see I'm quite incorrect! I coulda sworn I did an avian flu one. D-oh! Anyway, thanks for the continued links. I, too, think that H5N1 is a Very Big Deal.

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:48:37 -0800

Huh. Just did a search, and found out I didn't contribute nearly as many links to all this as I'd thought, too. Perhaps I'm being affected by BSE...

By: amberglow

amberglow — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 19:56:03 -0800

I'm more worried about a purposely released Oryx and Crake-type thing personally, something i can bet for sure i'll see in my lifetime. I can't worry about an epidemic, having buried so so many to AIDS already.

By: spock

spock — Tue, 15 Mar 2005 20:47:46 -0800

fff: Hopefully not BSE. I believe you are thinking of your March 4th ASK thread (which I'm guessing was precipitated by this one).

By: spock

spock — Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:16:23 -0800

This may be the final day that this thread is open. A few comments: We have a tendency to grow "fatigued" with a news story after repeated exposure. By its very nature, this is a slow moving story, but it is moving nonetheless. Scientists have been watching this virus with concern since 1997. One source says that it may be another year before the virus mutates into a form that is easily transmittable human-to-human (and it may never do so - we can only hope). Clues in the news seem to indicate that it may already be happening. If a human being (already infected with a human virus) also become sick with H5N1 the final ingredients for a pandemic would be in the mixing bowl. While there is no "cure" for a virus, vaccines can mitigate the symptoms and help prevent virus fatalities. Especially troubling is the news that bird flu is now in North Korea - a country that is not open about problems it is experiencing. While the report is not verified and based on a visitor's report, this is how virtually all news coming out of NK is obtained. Bird flu would be nightmare in North Korea, experts say. "According to one Yonhap report, starving North Koreans had dug up and consumed the infected chickens that had been buried at the Pyongyang farm." I have not referred much to Recombinomics, as I consider them to be a secondary source. However, the writer of the commentary is apparently a specialist in the field and gives a more knowledgeable view on what the news reports may indicating. For example: 78 Percent of South Vietnam Bird Flu Patients False Negatives?

By: five fresh fish

five fresh fish — Wed, 16 Mar 2005 07:52:07 -0800

IMO, bird flu would be a blessing for most North Koreans. They're starving to death. H5N1 is, at least, a relatively quick way to go. It's only a matter of time before a pandemic strikes. The more informed we all are, the more likely we can contain it and prevent it from becoming a global disaster.