Join 3,433 readers in helping fund MetaFilter (Hide)


My crystal balls sez:
July 20, 2006 11:02 PM   Subscribe

PINR presents a well educated guess over what is going to happen with the Israel - Hezbollah conflict. They also offer significant background and insight into the mood and motives of some surrounding states.
posted by bigmusic (13 comments total)

 
So, PINR is what? Yet another blog?
posted by mischief at 11:29 PM on July 20, 2006


well educated guess over what is going to happen

Ummmm.... is it 'more shelling'?
posted by pompomtom at 11:37 PM on July 20, 2006


Pompomton writes: "Ummmm.... is it 'more shelling'?"

I was going to guess tea and crumpets but on reading your prediction, I'm going to have to go with "more shelling" too.
posted by Second Account For Making Jokey Comments at 11:46 PM on July 20, 2006


"The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader."

We can play, too!

"Metafilter is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide "Best of the Web" analysis services in the context of internet relations. Metafilter approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader."
posted by shoepal at 12:16 AM on July 21, 2006


"Metafilter is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide "Best of the Web" analysis services in the context of internet relations. Metafilter approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader trolls."

Thought I'd fix that for you.
posted by Goofyy at 12:57 AM on July 21, 2006


Seemsw like a pretty sensible and reasonable assesment. So who are these PINR people?
posted by Artw at 7:20 AM on July 21, 2006


Actually, I thought this was pretty cool. Open-source intelligence, indeed. It makes you wonder: why is the Israeli government, who certainly have more infortmation than this, engaged in an activity that the publically available info suggests is stategically harmful? Forget moral outrage, which is what the PINR does; states should make decisions regarding their longterm stability and growth, not because they're feeling righteous. Perhaps there was non-open-source intelligence suggesting these raids were preparation for a major attack?
posted by anotherpanacea at 7:23 AM on July 21, 2006


Open source intelligence right here. See and weep.
posted by adamvasco at 8:46 AM on July 21, 2006


why is the Israeli government, who certainly have more infortmation than this, engaged in an activity that the publically available info suggests is stategically harmful?

Why indeed. I wonder if Robert McNamara ever asked himself the same question?
posted by blucevalo at 9:52 AM on July 21, 2006


Actually, RN is one of my favorite smart idiots. Let's hope the Israelies aren't pulling a McNamara, since they ought to know better than to depend on rational choice game theory bullshit when dealing with Lebanon.
posted by anotherpanacea at 11:14 AM on July 21, 2006


I'm particularly interested in this: "Israel's Ehud Olmert administration insists that Israel's strategic goals in the conflict are the destruction of Hezbollah's rocket launching capabilities, the elimination of the organization's leaders, and the disruption of its chain of command.

While the task of physically destroying Hezbollah's offensive capabilities seems possible notwithstanding tactical difficulties, the goal of virtually ending Hezbollah as an organization will probably backfire since the group is deeply rooted in Lebanese society and, most importantly, such an action would inevitably cause massive civilian casualties
."
posted by anotherpanacea at 11:16 AM on July 21, 2006


"Israel is already under pressure by the United Nations and some of its traditional Western allies because the air campaign against alleged Hezbollah's ramparts in Beirut, Tyre, and other Lebanese towns is causing hundreds of civilian casualties and thousands of refugees. Such a fact may give Hezbollah -- an organization already deeply entrenched in the Lebanese Shi'a community -- a window of opportunity to increase its prestige and influence in Lebanon, thus preventing Israel from achieving a political victory, notwithstanding its military superiority."

Sounds about right. Hezbollah are thugs, no doubt, and Israel is doing exactly what they wanted them to do--further instability, further sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza, further contempt for Israel. The citizens of Israel deserve better leadership.

Oh, and remeber that wonderful democracy we installed in Iraq? The PM is condeming Israel as well. The only winner here is the growing Iran/Shi'a hegemony in the region.
posted by bardic at 11:43 AM on July 21, 2006



posted by Artw at 1:36 PM on July 21, 2006 [1 favorite]


« Older Conceptual dresses...  |  Check out this map of The Simp... Newer »


This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments