Melting ice cap

October 4, 2006 9:40 AM

Hadley Centre: Climate ProjectionsTwo computer models showing how the North Pole is melting and what the surface temperature of the earth will be like at the end of this century. A spinning globe visualises the changes. This is not hyperbole just lots of data.
posted by hard rain (21 comments total)

Keep in mind that the northern ice caps are floating in water, so that if they melt the global ocean level will not rise, unlike the ice on Antarctica.

Not that we're not fucked, I'm just saying. Also, the ice on Greenland will raise the sea level.
posted by delmoi at 9:49 AM on October 4, 2006

Does anyone have any computer models showing how fast the ice in Greenland and Antarctica will melt? I'd like to see some realtime simulations of it melting. There was one of Greenland in Al Gore's movie, but it wasn't that great and it didn't focus on how long it will take to melt.
posted by banished at 10:04 AM on October 4, 2006

#delmoi: Keep in mind that the northern ice caps are floating in water, so that if they melt the global ocean level will not rise,

Melting of Floating Ice Will Raise Sea Level

Noerdlinger demonstrates that melt water from sea ice and floating ice shelves could add 2.6% more water to the ocean than the water displaced by the ice, or the equivalent of approximately 4 centimeters (1.57 inches) of sea-level rise.

posted by MonkeySaltedNuts at 10:11 AM on October 4, 2006 [1 favorite has favorites]

Keep in mind that the northern ice caps are floating in water, so that if they melt the global ocean level will not rise, unlike the ice on Antarctica.

Also worth keeping in mind that when that white, highly reflective ice melts, it leaves a plain of dark, highly absorptive water. And thus to further warming. The epitome of a positive feedback loop.
posted by gompa at 10:15 AM on October 4, 2006

In other climate change news, they reported yesterday that a bunch of birds are eating tadpoles since worms are staying underground because of the heat. It'd be awesome that birds are so flexible, except that frogs are already totally screwed, last thing they need is a couple new(ish) predators.
posted by salvia at 10:24 AM on October 4, 2006

This animation reminds me of something I saw years ago at SIGGRAPH, mapping the ozone hole and its rate of expansion. Extrapolated a hundred years into the future, along with the data in this FPP, it's fair to say that the humans alive at that point in time are, in a word, fucked.
posted by dbiedny at 10:30 AM on October 4, 2006

This is not hyperbole just lots of data.

"I am not a crook." - Richard M. Nixon
posted by caddis at 10:47 AM on October 4, 2006

So much data, such lousy presentation...
posted by speug at 1:32 PM on October 4, 2006

Sooo....we're fucked? We're fucked, right?
posted by you just lost the game at 2:06 PM on October 4, 2006

So what, in 100,000 years a comet will hit us a turn the planet into a lava ball. In 5 billion years our Sun goes red giant and swallows the planets. In 10^10 years the black hole in the center of the galaxy swallows the white dwarf remains of the stars and the dead cinders of the planets and debris. In 10^50 years any lucky remaining matter starts to disappear due to proton decay. In 10^150 years the black holes evaporate, leaving nothing but a sea of extremely low frequency radiation, getting ever dimmer. Yes, we are fucked.
posted by snoktruix at 2:15 PM on October 4, 2006

I'm much more worried about precipitation and soil moisture changes than sea level rise, which is just a matter of moving house. If there is a net decrease in farm land and crop yields and ground water and rivers are already stressed all over the world we have big problems for everyone. These models don't show it but a previous FPP had a model for North America which showed severe and extended drought which experts said if it came true would be unthinkable in consequence. Already we are seeing the start of it (IMO) throughout the western states and some south-eastern states. Texas in particular ironically. If that happened agriculture would have to shift back to the eastern states which would mean a major forest clearance and development of farmlands that have largely gone fallow since the end of the 19th century when farming mostly moved out west. Buy eastern farmland for your kids.
posted by stbalbach at 2:29 PM on October 4, 2006

snoktruix: So what, in 100,000 years...

This is a bit more... immediate. As in "significant effects within our lifetimes" immediate.

stbalbach: Agriculture is indeed already shifting. I'm also curious to see how this affects populations as well, as water resources shift due to precipitation pattern changes. Areas already starting to feel the "pinch" of reduced precipitation, particularly those in which land prices are rising as people flood into those areas for economic reasons, may suffer pretty darn quickly from having more people than their water supply can handle.
posted by FormlessOne at 3:19 PM on October 4, 2006

snoktruix: So what, in 100,000 years...

This is a bit more... immediate. As in "significant effects within our lifetimes" immediate.

Yeah, but caring about what happens in your own lifetime just totally gets in the way of striking a particularly stylin' more-disaffected-than-thou pose.

Sooo....we're fucked? We're fucked, right?

If we listen to fatalistic bullshit (and/or business-as-usual bullshit): Yes. If we actually decide to invest in making human civilizations sustainable: Maybe not.
posted by gompa at 3:58 PM on October 4, 2006

I can't figure out if that's a compliment or an insult. But I don't really know what "stylin'" means, sorry for not being hip enough.
posted by snoktruix at 4:13 PM on October 4, 2006

"Climate change results from the Hadley Centre"

I'm against the Hadley Centre.
posted by StickyCarpet at 4:42 PM on October 4, 2006

Here's what Australia will look like after sea level rises a projected 500m. We're fucked but the stingrays win big, so it's a pretty much a wash.
posted by jfuller at 4:46 PM on October 4, 2006

If we actually decide to invest in making human civilizations sustainable: Maybe not.

What if we deny that there's any problem at all until nothing can be done about it, and then wave our handsin the air and say 'Well nothing can be done about it now!".

'Cos that seems to be the current plan.
posted by Artw at 5:19 PM on October 4, 2006

I would say that this is a really cool FPP, but "cool" doesn't seem appropriate.

As for the terrible things that will happen in 10^n years, I (having three children) am more interested what will happen in their lifetimes. I want them to have food to eat and a good, clean world to live in.

I guess I'm myopic like that.
posted by SteveTheRed at 6:04 PM on October 4, 2006

Thanks for the interesting post. I really liked the site, but the movie itself was hard to interpret. It wasn't exactly hyperbole, but the color scale wasn't exactly neutral, either.

And, eponysterical.
posted by owhydididoit at 8:15 PM on October 4, 2006

The century of drought. "One third of the planet will be desert by the year 2100, say climate experts in the most dire warning yet of the effects of global warming."
posted by stbalbach at 8:31 PM on October 4, 2006

Scientists issue global warming report, "Global warming could strain the Northeast's power grid, farms, forests and marine fisheries by the next century unless carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by 3 percent each year, according to a report released Wednesday. The climate in the nine states — from New Jersey and Pennsylvania up to Maine — could become like that of the South with longer, much hotter summers and warmer winters with less snow, the report by the Union of Concerned Scientists said."
posted by stbalbach at 8:39 PM on October 4, 2006