...Iraq may have started as a war of choice for the Bush administration, but it has become a war of great and unintended consequences. Immense risks lurk down every strategic road. Given the fractured state of the American body politic, it is almost certainly too late to rally the country behind an all-out war effort -- think tax increases; a war Cabinet; a full mobilization of the National Guard and the Reserves; a civilian reconstruction corps; a larger Army and Marine Corps; longer combat tours for troops; mandatory combat-zone deployments for U.S. diplomats and aid officials; a return to national service; and possibly even a limited draft. Yet absent a plan that puts the nation on either an all-out wartime footing or the firm path to retreat, the United States is largely condemned to some tweaked-around-the-edges variation of the administration's current approach on Iraq of "muddle through and hand over." And America, the experts agree, is already losing that war.Endgame
In the first nine months of this year, Bush declared more than twice as many events or outcomes "unacceptable" or "not acceptable" as he did in all of 2005, and nearly four times as many as he did in 2004. He is, in fact, at a presidential career high in denouncing events he considers intolerable. They number 37 so far this year, as opposed to five in 2003, 18 in 2002 and 14 in 2001.Bush Confounded by the 'Unacceptable'
Through a spokesman and then in a televised statement, he declared North Korea's claimed nuclear test "unacceptable" before and after it occurred Oct. 9. But he could also be heard on Jan. 9 lecturing students at an elementary school in Glen Burnie, Md., that their recent scores on math and reading proficiency tests were "unacceptable."
Having a president call something "unacceptable" is not the same as having him order U.S. troops into action. But foreign policy experts say the word is one of the strongest any leader can deploy, since it both broadcasts a national position and conveys an implicit threat to take action if his warnings are disregarded.
Few officials in either party are talking about an immediate pullout of U.S. combat troops. But interest appears to be growing in several broad ideas. One would be some kind of effort to divide the country along regional lines. Another, favored by many Democrats, is a gradual withdrawal of troops over a set period of time. A third would be a dramatic scaling-back of U.S. ambitions in Iraq, giving up on democracy and focusing only on stability.To boil it down: the alternatives people are considering are to split the country, leave, or declare an all-out dictatorship to try and stablize things. Making the first option seem a bit unrealistic are the clashes going on in the Shiite southern part of Iraq between different Shiite groups (which also upset the doubtless oversimplified picture of Sunni vs. Shia painted in the US media). But when people talk about "staying the course" or "finishing the job," you have to realize that they're either talking about the forcible partition of the country — which would doubtless be a humanitarian disaster — or the even worse option of installing "stability" by means of a dictator. Anyone who really believed it was about democracy was just plain wrong, and it's time for them to call for the only solution — troop withdrawal. And better sooner than later.
...What the current debate ignores is the benefits of leaving: Americans stop dying and getting injured for a lost cause and the American mood improves, the bad guys are denied an excuse and an easy target, the American military is strengthened through defeat, the door is opened for a new discussion about the proper way to fight terrorism.Taking Advantage of Our Defeat in Iraq
America will be humbled when we leave Iraq. Let's recognize this is the bitter pill we must swallow now. It ironically will improve our standing in much of the world as we admit that we need the world's help. It will force us to make a reality of our empty pledge to pursue non-military solutions to the challenge of terrorism.
And what of the enemy? Muslim extremists and terrorists will celebrate our defeat, emboldened even more into believing that they can "win" their war, just as they once defeated the Soviet empire in Afghanistan. It is our punishment and the conundrum: They will celebrate, and they may even be momentarily strengthened. But by stepping off the treadmill, we will also remove so much of the inspiration and certainty that fuels our enemies.
The Chinese sell a lot of merchandise in the United States and, in the process, accumulate a lot of dollars. They then loan many of those dollars back to the United States in exchange for all manner of American i.o.u.’s, including Treasury bonds, federal agency bonds, and private-sector debt.China’s Milestone, Our Millstone
America’s indebtedness to China, as a result, is staggeringly high, although the Bush administration — which needs foreign loans to help finance the budget deficit — seems unfazed. But there is reason for pause. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that China’s holdings of foreign currency and securities would soon top $1 trillion, a fivefold increase since 2000. Roughly 70 percent of that is believed to be in dollars or dollar-based assets.
Bush Confounded by the 'Unacceptable'
U.S. to Hand Iraq a New Timetable on Security Role
Although encouraged to develop positive scenarios, the workshop participants struggled to do so. But even the less-negative scenarios, such as The Long Slog to Overcome Ethnic and Sectarian Politics, required some leaps of faith and careful coordinated cooperation of the many actors (any of whom could have derailed the positive process). This may reflect general pessimism on the part of the participants, but it would be unwise to ignore what they were able to do and what they found difficult to do.Scenarios for the Insurgency in Iraq
Three major themes emerged in all the scenarios: the helpfulness (or lack thereof) of Iraq's neighbors, the capabilities of Iraqi security forces (army and police), and the extent to which the dominant ethnic and sectarian groups can forge a governing consensus.
An important dynamic in the scenarios is the waning of U.S. influence and the waxing of Iranian influence in the region. The United States must engage all of Iraq's neighbors to piece together policies and actions to move Iraq and the region away from conflict and toward peace and stability. For example, the scenario Neighboring Helping Hands depends on the constructive role of neighboring countries, some of which (Syria and Iran) have tenuous relationships with the United States. Their helpfulness will not materialize as a natural extension of existing relationships or policies, or by serendipity. Rather, current U.S. policies, particularly with respect to Syria and Iran, would have to change. A major uncertainty is whether Iran can be engaged and persuaded to be a constructive influence.
The negative scenarios (Descent into Hell, "Lebanonization," and Ethnic-Sectarian Politics Derail the Political Process) are not predicated on any surprising event or U.S. blunder. Rather, they are based on forces the experts saw as inexorable at worst or unsurprising at best. The participants found it difficult to imagine effective and realistic countermeasures to avoid these kinds of negative outcomes. The strategies the participants outline do not attempt to detail the specific steps to be taken, but only broadly sketch the kinds of initiatives required. Even without going into details, which would be more difficult, accomplishing them would be daunting...
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posted by furtive at 8:29 AM on October 21, 2006