Baseball win probabilities based on game situation

October 26, 2006 7:45 PM

Baseball nerd fun: Type in which team's at bat, how many outs, which inning, how many on base, and the Win Expectancy Finder will spit out the likelihood the team wins, based on actual game data from the periods 2000-2004, 1991-1998, and 1979-1990.
posted by ibmcginty (12 comments total)

It'd be interesting to check expected vs. observed for the NY Mets in the Franco/Benitez years. My boys never seemed to find a way to blow a late-inning lead.
posted by Opposite George at 7:48 PM on October 26, 2006

er, fail to find a way, that is.
posted by Opposite George at 7:49 PM on October 26, 2006

Opposite George, after I read your first comment, I was going to contradict you, but I see your memory of those days is the same as mine. But they sure played in some good baseball games. I don't think I'll ever forget the 1999 NLCS.
posted by stopgap at 8:15 PM on October 26, 2006

Pudge just increased Detroit's chances of winning by 10% by legging that double out.
posted by ibmcginty at 8:31 PM on October 26, 2006

I don't think I'll ever forget the 1999 NLCS.

That was some Horta-level pain in game six. Franco and Benitez each give up a run, each blowing the lead. Then Kenny Rogers, employing a move I thought the other two had trademarked, walks Gerald Williams over the plate.

Now that's teamwork.
posted by Opposite George at 8:34 PM on October 26, 2006

Why are you doing this to me? I'm still trying to reconstruct my psyche after they lost to the goddam Cardinals, a far inferior team (just like 1988—I was actually in Shea for that fatal game when Davey left Doc in too long and he coughed up the lead to the worthless Dodgers and they never recovered). Damn you, Mets!
posted by languagehat at 6:10 AM on October 27, 2006

languagehat,

Game Six made me believe in God again.

Every year since then has made me appreciate the expression "Insha'Allah" even more. Especially after last week's debacle* (the magic is back, apparently.)

*I swear this is what happened: After Molina's HR in the ninth, I couldn't watch any more and headed out to Walgreens for the ibuprofen I knew I'd need, swearing not to torture myself any more. That was good for about 5 minutes but curiosity got the best of me and I turned the radio back on just as I was pulling into the parking lot and Floyd got caught looking. I was ready to walk in the store disgusted but the guy in the car next to mine must've seen me banging my head against the window 'cause he rolled his window down, cranked the radio up and urged me to stick it out.

More head-banging after another out and two down, but -- Remember Game Six! (and Chavez's amazing catch in the sixth) -- maybe Divine Providence was pulling for us. Lo Duca's walk only strengthened our faith. Then, the unspeakable.

We both went in for our late-night pain killers boggled at Beltran's apparent inability to swing but hopeful for next year, Insha'Allah.

This is how Mets fans have been bonding as long as I can remember. Randolph's got the potential to build a dynasty but honestly I don't know if I could handle a situation like this every year.
posted by Opposite George at 8:13 AM on October 27, 2006

...the goddam Cardinals, a far inferior team...

heh. heh-heh...hehehehe HEHEHEHEH

And now we're up 3-1 in the World Series.

Nice find ibmcginty.
posted by badger_flammable at 8:15 AM on October 27, 2006

swearing not to torture myself any more

I am hoping to find peace in Zen or some other ideal, accidentally running into it while suffering through baseball seasons. Of course, 2004 made it entirely possible I'll just wind up some happy asshole instead.
posted by yerfatma at 9:56 AM on October 27, 2006

One pony request: add a year dropdown so one can select the proper year's win expectancies when torturing oneself with What Might Have Been. Self-flagellation demands accuracy.
posted by yerfatma at 9:58 AM on October 27, 2006

Before I continue way off track here, ibmcginty, I want to say that I'll be watching the game tonight with your link open in front of me. Thanks much for that.

yerfatma, Sox fans and Mets fans are kin -- we share the goal of seeing the Yanks suck it. And even Job might have thrown in the towel if he had to endure our trials. I'll look into that Zen thing -- thanks for the tip.

And now we're up 3-1 in the World Series.

Despite the fact* that your guys got lucky (or maybe YHVH's still pissed about the Kazmir/Zambrano trade -- whatever) I'm rooting for the Cards too. There's a bunch of reasons.

Yeah, they had a crappy season but they really want it. That counts for a lot. They went into the Series as the underdog, and Mets fans always have a soft spot for the underdog so that helps. St. Louis's gone longer than the Metropolitans or the Tigers since their last World Championship** so I can live with it being their time. And anybody who's been to Cooperstown will verify the Cards have always had the swankiest uniforms in MLB (nobody else had fully-embroidered jerseys last time I checked.)

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, they, like the Mets, play real ball and not that DH-addled crap.

Anyway, seeing the Yanks suck it so hard in the post season almost makes up for losing to the Cards.

*This is not a subject for debate.

**Yes, I've heard all the hate for the name "World Series." Tough. The US got there first and we're keeping the name. Neener neener.
posted by Opposite George at 11:35 AM on October 27, 2006

badger_flammable: Though I grit my teeth, I have to say: congrats, the Cards deserved the win. The Tigers looked like a bunch of amateurs; setting an all-time record for number of errors by a pitching staff is just one indication. As a Mets fan, all I can say is: wait till next year!
posted by languagehat at 6:21 AM on October 28, 2006