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Swerve on a Country Road
October 27, 2006 1:49 PM   Subscribe

Red America is shading purplish blue. A new poll shows rural voters in 41 highly competitive districts have swerved Democratic since September. Now 52/39 for the Dems.
posted by Julie (33 comments total)

 
Too soon! Too soon! Don't jinx shit up!
posted by boo_radley at 1:51 PM on October 27, 2006 [1 favorite]


Let me know when the republicans don't count the votes. We'll see how great the shift is when media are trying to explain why democrats polled so big and won so little. And we'll be able to go back to grousing about expensive gas, too, so we might not even notice.
posted by Mayor Curley at 1:52 PM on October 27, 2006 [1 favorite]


Red America is still red enough to control the Senate. Electoral-Vote.com shows Republicans with 51 senate seats. This is based on an average of various recent polls, so the larger sample size should make for more accurate predictions.
posted by scottreynen at 1:56 PM on October 27, 2006


I'm on both the dem mailing list and the republican one.

Both sides are telling the people on the lists to request a absentee ballot. I found it odd that even the republicans don't trust diebold anymore. I'm not sure what it means.
posted by nyxxxx at 1:57 PM on October 27, 2006


This can't be jinxed. We should be happy the numbers are in Dems favor. So little trust. Here's the difference between now and 2004. In 2004, Kerry trailed almost the whole way, and only led a few times in a few polls. The highly volitale exit polls showed Kerry winning big, despite all of the polls beforehand showing otherwise. Bush won.

This year, all of the polls are showing the Democrats crushing the Republicans. While I don't see a 40 seat gain, the numbers are seriously in our favor and well-respected political handicappers like Charlie Cook and Congressional Quarterly are predicting sizeable gains and a Dem majority in the House.

Confidence is a big part of this game and having it is important. Trying to protect ourselves from emotional let down isn't helping America recover and is selfish. Start believing.
posted by Ironmouth at 1:58 PM on October 27, 2006


also need more... content. Sort of a poor post.
posted by boo_radley at 1:58 PM on October 27, 2006


Electoral-Vote.com shows Republicans with 51 senate seats

make it 52?
posted by matteo at 2:09 PM on October 27, 2006


Wishful thinking? The Republicans are pure evil. They aren't going to lose anything.
posted by chunking express at 2:12 PM on October 27, 2006


Kansas and Tennessee would vote for Satan if he promised to do something about homosexual marriage.

There is no greater threat to the livelihood of an uneducated Midwesterner or Southerner than men marrying each other.
posted by four panels at 2:14 PM on October 27, 2006 [1 favorite]


We should be happy the numbers are in Dems favor.

Frankly no, we shouldn't. The only thing that could possibly break the 153 year old Republicrat stranglehold is a prolonged period of powerlessness for the Democrats, during which they are totally destroyed, and reformed with new interests at heart.
posted by hoverboards don't work on water at 2:22 PM on October 27, 2006 [1 favorite]


Sadly I think hoverboards is right. As much as I want to go back to the good ol' days of griping about the stupid Democrats, I don't think the New RightTM is going to dissolve anytime soon.

Not to mention that the psychotic neocon* mindset has some serious sway in the Democratic party.

*yeah, yeah, not technically correct, you all know what I mean
posted by sonofsamiam at 2:46 PM on October 27, 2006


Democrats, during which they are totally destroyed, and reformed with new interests at heart.

Disagree. Right now we have a hard right and a "center" right party. First step is to destroy the hard right party and utterly disenfranchise the walking shit in clothes that supports it with money and votes. Then establish a party with actual liberal and progressive values. The Democratic party is completely incapable of becoming that party no matter what happens, as their core values aren't liberal or progressive. The new party will take the true leftist role, while the democrats can stop pretending and become the right wing party they are. It's sort of beginning to happen now in the UK: Labour is already well on its way to being the "moderate" Tories, while your hardcore conservative is esentially disenfranchised. Maybe eventually the lib dems will bring progressive liberalism back.

(Yes, yes, I have a thalidomide baby's understanding of politics American and British, but that's how it looks to me.)
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 2:48 PM on October 27, 2006 [1 favorite]


Frankly no, we shouldn't. The only thing that could possibly break the 153 year old Republicrat stranglehold is a prolonged period of powerlessness for the Democrats, during which they are totally destroyed, and reformed with new interests at heart.

I think this is a myth. If such a thing were to happen, I suspect the Democrats would finally just give up the ghost and return with a slicker, more polished spin machine. I mean, really, when people complain about the Democrats these days, it's the "lack of message", as if the Democrats would be so much more palatable if they all marched lockstep and vomited like birds into the gaping American mouth like the Republicans do: Stay on message, stay on message.

We, the horrified onlookers, can only wonder why it is that these transparent Talking Points seem to actually work. How strange. Perhaps you have a point, however. Not that it would change the Democrats necessarily, but maybe a prolonged period of powerlessness would leave the American people at a stage where they wanted something else. And, in turn, the Democrats could offer them what they wanted.

But at this point I almost don't care. I mean, as far as I'm concerned, the game was lost in 2004. Now the bumbling, inept management of Iraq has made the world a far more dangerous place than it otherwise would have been, all because J. Smith and his assorted ilk in Tennessee, and similar hotbeds of Republican support, are so poorly educated about politics that they actually thought John Kerry was the one that wanted to give tax breaks to the rich. Ugh.

Colbert is right. Who would have thought that, three decades later, even left-wing types would yearn for the day when a right-winger had the principles of a Richard Nixon? Kinda funny, I guess ;)
posted by The God Complex at 2:49 PM on October 27, 2006


It was purplish blue back in 2004. Red States and Blue States are a partisan myth.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 2:57 PM on October 27, 2006


Also there is no way we take back either chamber. The Senate is over -- at best it breaks 49/51 (counting Lieberman as a Dem, though he clearly is not one). At this point the New Jersey race makes it look like 48/52 is more likely because the New Jersey Supreme Court's decision on gay unions, whatever it actually says, will be spun to energize the base there.

The House will be close, but I suspect Dems will still end up several seats down. As Josh Marshall notes, the Sadam verdict, originally scheduled to be announced in mid-October as been moved to . . . wait for it . . . November 5! In addition a substantial number of the races that are poling as "slightly Democratic" feature a black, Dem. challenger with a lead of less than 10 points facing a white, Rep incumbent. Those races are essentially lost. When are people going to learn that you need a 15 point lead in such a race before it is even close, due to the tendency of racist white voters to lie to pollsters?

We've been here before, folks. It's not going to change. If you want to take a look at some numbers on a Rep. leaning site, this one is widely read and respected by Republicans I know. A few days ago he was predicting a 219 Dem/ 216 Rep House split and noted the possibility of a Dem controlled House with a Rep. speaker (because some Dem's don't like Pelosi much). I think that now that people have forgotten Foleygate (yes, it happens that fast) the momentum is swinging the other way and things will break against the Dems. I'll also admit to a certain amount of tin-foil-hat fear here: Bush is extremely confident of a Republican "surprise" which makes me smell Diebold, but that's just me.

I've set it before and I'll say it again: don't get your hopes up folks.
posted by The Bellman at 2:58 PM on October 27, 2006


Republicans are in the process of rigging this election just as they did the last three.

It helps to know their methods of voter suppression, hacked machines, stuffed boxes, bogus absentee ballots, and every imagined nasty trick are already in play.

There is hope. This time, we shall overcome this immense neocon fraud with massive turnout.
posted by BillyElmore at 3:06 PM on October 27, 2006


Massive turnout? For mid terms?
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 3:10 PM on October 27, 2006


Please vote. It's the least anyone can do.
posted by bardic at 3:24 PM on October 27, 2006


1 chicken, 2 chickens, 3 chickens...

(as soon as these eggs hatch.)
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 3:45 PM on October 27, 2006


Both sides are telling the people on the lists to request a absentee ballot. I found it odd that even the republicans don't trust diebold anymore. I'm not sure what it means.

Absentee ballots are even more vulnerable to not being counted. A postman just needs to throw it out on the rout, or anywhere along the way.

The reason parties what people to vote early, is so that they don't forget.
posted by delmoi at 4:13 PM on October 27, 2006


chunking express writes "The Republicans are pure evil."

No, they're not, and it's no more correct than when the Republicans say that about Democrats. People who have political opinions are not evil, unless opinions are evil. I also don't think Stalin's "useful idiots" were evil. Badly misguided, true, maybe even in denial, but people do what they can to survive ... That is not going to work anyway. You can't run a country by alienating your opposition. Ask Bush.

This country really does work best when there is balance between the parties in the federal government. When one party gains too much power, there is corruption. I don't want an all-Democrat government any more than I want an all-Republican government. Neither of them last very long that way anyway, as is the nature of democracy. But if you're going to believe the party who opposes you is evil, you may be a great sloganeer, but that's about it. The Republican Party as of late has been a disaster, and some of the people involved are evil, but most of them are sloganeers and cheerleaders clinging to what they feel is their identity, no matter how distorted it becomes. It's a tribe, like any other.
posted by krinklyfig at 4:40 PM on October 27, 2006


"That government is best which governs least."

Here's another vote for divided government. The less it does, the better.

(Remember when Conservatives could claim Tom Paine as one of their spiritual predecessors? That ended in 1994.)
posted by bardic at 4:45 PM on October 27, 2006


Absentee ballots are less vulnerable, because postmen don't know which one to throw away without opening them, and only two or three people in the election tabulating chain can screw with your vote.

Electronic machine votes with no receipt on the other hand are vulnerable to every computer savvy individual in the country, and if they use a viral vote tamperer, they can affect every vote in each county where they introduce the virus.

Electronic machines with paper receipts are also vulnerable to denial of service attacks. "Oh, we Republicans aren't responsible for the fact that the voting machines in predominantly democratic districts aren't working."

Billy Elmore, if the tabulation machines are hacked for the Republican vote, no amount of Democrat voters will make a difference.

One single man at Diebold could easily steal this whole election in either direction. My only hope is that someone will hack all the voting machines to elect a write in candidate named "Voter Fraud" for every national political vote. That would wake this country up to the dangers of stolen elections.
posted by BrotherCaine at 4:53 PM on October 27, 2006 [1 favorite]


Well said, krinklyfig.
posted by BrotherCaine at 4:55 PM on October 27, 2006


Rollin', rollin', rollin'.
Rollin', rollin', rollin'.
Rollin', rollin', rollin'.
Rollin', rollin', rollin'.
Rawhide!
Hah! Hah!

Keep rollin', rollin', rollin',
Though the streams are swollen,
Keep them dogies rollin', rawhide.
Through rain and wind and weather,
Hell bent for leather,
Wishin' my gal was by my side.
All the things I'm missin',
Good vittles, love, and kissin',
Are waiting at the end of my ride.

Move 'em out, head 'em up,
Head 'em up, move 'em on.
Move 'em out, head 'em up:
Rawhide.
Cut 'em out, ride 'em in,
Ride 'em in, cut 'em out,
Cut 'em out, ride 'em in:
Rawhide!
Hah! Hah!

Movin', movin', movin',
Though they're disapprovin',
Keep them dogies movin', rawhide.
Don't try to understand 'em,
Just rope an' throw an' brand 'em.
Soon we'll be living high and wide.
My heart's calculatin',
My true love will be waitin':
Waitin' at the end of my ride.

Move 'em out, head 'em up,
Head 'em up, move 'em on.
Move 'em out, head 'em up:
Rawhide.
Cut 'em out, ride 'em in,
Ride 'em in, cut 'em out,
Cut 'em out, ride 'em in:
Rawhide!

(Rollin', rollin', rollin'.)
(Rollin', rollin', rollin'.)
Hah!
(Rollin', rollin', rollin'.)
Hah!
(Rollin', rollin', rollin'.)
Rawhide.
Hah!
Rawhide!
posted by taosbat at 5:13 PM on October 27, 2006


Democratic house with Republican speaker? This time it truly is the Republicans smoking crack. First, re: Pelosi. Check the scoreboard--she is the Democrats' leader. That means she beat everyone else. Second, if she couldn't win, another Democrat would be able to get enough votes. I don't think the scenario pushed by Real Clear Politics has ever happened in American politics.

There's nothing worse than not believing. It saps the energy. People should get their hopes up. It hurts no one. When people are psyched, they volunteer more and spread the word more.

House Republicans have all but admitted they will lose the House. Democrats are defending exactly zero seats. Republicans are defending 70. We only need to win 15, two of which are near shoo-ins. TX 22 where they are running a write in candidate on terrible computerized machines and Foley's district.

The polls don't lie folks. The exit polls were the only ones really showing that Kerry was going to win.

As for Saddam being sentenced--how is this going to help the Republicans? Hell yes let's talk about Iraq. The fact that Saddam has been in jail since December 2003 and things are worse is something we need to be talking about every single minute. If the GOP wants to challenge on Iraq, let's go to it.

The Republican insiders are acting beat and they have their own numbers to read. The Republican blogs like Real Clear Politics are the one's drinking the cool aid this year.

These people are not 10 feet tall and invincible, they are a political party--parties suffer defeats and setbacks. If they were doing well, the polls would show it. Instead they show Congress with a 16 percent approval rating. That's ten points lower than the 1994 Dems, who had controlled the House for all but 2 years between 1932 and 1994.
posted by Ironmouth at 5:21 PM on October 27, 2006


Hastert Aides Blocked Corruption Probe. More goodies hot off the presses this evening.

For those of you opposed to what has happened in this country in the last six years, it is time to start believing that we can do it. The times demand nothing less.
posted by Ironmouth at 5:26 PM on October 27, 2006


Ironmouth: I don't believe in Polosi. She's out there spewing Republican talking points, in a recent interview she "pledged" not to impeach Bush, and spent the entire damn interview talking about how if the Democrats got power they'd be nice to the Republicans.

I say no. For every slight they gave us we should give them three. For very comittee meeting they hid from us, we should hide four. For every state they gerymander we should gerymander two. For the next two years we should not be as bad to them as they were to us, we should be at least twice as bad. If we manage to retake Congress we should be spending every *single* day working on ways to belittle them, render them powerless, and humiliate them not the way they did to us but worse. We should state clearly at the outset that we are doing this to remind them that they can't jerk us around without facing consiquences. We should set a time limit on how long we'll screw them, say two years, and after that we can be nice, fair, and polite.

But if we do retake Congress and Speaker Polosi acts nice, and *doesn't* go after the sorry bastards like a rabid wolverine the message they will remember is "use every dirty trick you can on the Democrats, they won't hit back".
posted by sotonohito at 6:39 PM on October 27, 2006


(Remember when Conservatives could claim Tom Paine as one of their spiritual predecessors? That ended in 1994.)

I'm leaning more towards 1795, when The Age of Reason was published.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 7:14 PM on October 27, 2006


As Josh Marshall notes, the Sadam verdict, originally scheduled to be announced in mid-October as been moved to . . . wait for it . . . November 5!

Well, it's not quite as exciting as Caesar parading Vercingetorix through the streets of Rome, but it will have to do...
posted by homunculus at 7:22 PM on October 27, 2006


"I don't believe in Polosi. She's out there spewing Republican talking points, in a recent interview she "pledged" not to impeach Bush, and spent the entire damn interview talking about how if the Democrats got power they'd be nice to the Republicans," sotonhito says.

Well actually Polosi is a great democrat. If we impeach Bush and Cheney, she's the lady in line. Thus, it would be in bad form for her to be talking this up now.

That "pledge" could be dropped in a San Francisco minute "in light of (some) current investigation" or any reason she cares to claim.

That jumpng on Polosi sounds like a neocon ploy to me. Polosi said something bad, so let's make bush King?
posted by BillyElmore at 7:49 PM on October 27, 2006


BillyElmore's got it right on Pelosi.

What the Dems need to do when they get in there is do their best to govern with the power they have and limit Bush and fix the mess. That's what their job is and that's what I want. Its what's good for the country. I also think impeaching Bush is probably best for the country, and, if the evidence is there he will be removed.
posted by Ironmouth at 8:19 PM on October 27, 2006


Tom Paine went off the reservation -- with his proto-Georgist pamphleteering ('Agrarian Justice', 1797) -- for conservatives and died a pauper.
posted by Heywood Mogroot at 8:30 PM on October 27, 2006


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