Election 2006

November 7, 2006 12:44 PM

Today's Election Day in the United States. Political Wire provides a list of all poll closing times.(The first closings will be at 6:00 PM EST) CNN and Fox News both have up their websites where you can start tracking all state and localized races as results come in. Exit polls are being conducted, but have been quarantined until polls close. And if you want to put any money on this, you're short on time. Good luck following the winners both in your state and on MetaFilter.
posted by XQUZYPHYR (969 comments total)

MeTa ;)
posted by quin at 12:53 PM on November 7, 2006

Nice election guide at the New York Times.
posted by Armitage Shanks at 12:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Ugh, I forgot about the Times guide; sorry, that def. should have gone in as well.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 1:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Also, from your 'quarantined' link;

Only two staffers from each of the TV networks and The Associated Press will be authorized to tear through the exit-poll data at the vote vault.

Those staffers will have to surrender their cellphones, laptop computers and BlackBerrys - it's the price of admission.

And they won't be able communicate with their offices until 5 p.m.

This seems so remarkably atypical of how news organizations normally work that it seems almost suspicious. I mean this borders on acting responsible.

Though the conspiracy theorist in me immediately cried out "you see, this is how they will hide the irregularities that raised so many questions last time, you see, I was right all along!"

I finally shut the voice up when I hit him repeatedly with a frying pan.
posted by quin at 1:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Help me! I'm stuck in a time loop!
posted by mwhybark at 1:04 PM on November 7, 2006

In a democracy we all win! Or in some cases we all lose. You choose!
posted by BrodieShadeTree at 1:13 PM on November 7, 2006

And if you want to put any money on this, you're short on time.

I was talking to a friend this morning, maybe Diebold doesn't really give a shit about the GOP, they just want to make a killing betting on the results
posted by matteo at 1:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Well at least no one's jamming other parties' phone lines or anything like that.
posted by clevershark at 1:30 PM on November 7, 2006

I heard Dewey's beating Truman.
posted by Kraftmatic Adjustable Cheese at 1:30 PM on November 7, 2006

It's interessting, everything I've heard so far seems to say turnout is very high. Here in Duluth we hit 75% last election, wonder what it'll be like today, at 10am they had over 500 already.
posted by edgeways at 1:32 PM on November 7, 2006

I was talking to a friend this morning, maybe Diebold doesn't really give a shit about the GOP, they just want to make a killing betting on the results

That sort of speaks to why I pointed to tradesports, besides my obvious ploy of trying to get the lefty-fanatic MeFite vote so I can short GOP positions.

Anyway, the myth is that there really are insiders betting on some of those lines (the individual races, not the generic race), so to some extent they do reflect useful information, and at any rate it's better than anything else we have before exit polls ;)
posted by spiderwire at 1:39 PM on November 7, 2006

Watch out for those poll workers.
posted by homunculus at 1:44 PM on November 7, 2006

the newsies should be let out of their exit poll isolation not too far from now
posted by edgeways at 1:44 PM on November 7, 2006

Watch out for those poll workers.

Yeah, some of them seem to be pretty hung up on voting right. A more detailed story about the poll worker, and pdf versions of the front and back of a local ballot. The poll worker was upset about the back page.

I was the eighth person to vote at my precinct, and the poll workers were still setting up the scanners,a nd couldn't get one of them working. After I fed my ballot through, one poll worker insisted that the other verify that the machine had registered my vote (this is how I know I was eighth). She was taking it all very, very seriously.
posted by dilettante at 2:02 PM on November 7, 2006

a resources list with links and phone numbers for voting probs -- Protecting The Vote
posted by amberglow at 2:04 PM on November 7, 2006

This seems so remarkably atypical of how news organizations normally work that it seems almost suspicious. I mean this borders on acting responsible.

Yeah, it's kind of hard to believe, but it's a good thing generally. At least exit polling doesn't get reported before the actual polls are closed any longer.

Not that the networks do this out of the goodness of their hearts -- but stopped clocks and all that.

Please vote America. After today, you won't have many chances left to save our country.
posted by bardic at 2:09 PM on November 7, 2006

With so much early voting all over, exit polls are more and more meaningless, i think.

And there's no way to poll cellphone users.

I think they're going to fix it so they keep the Senate, but there's no way to keep the House--i'm betting there'll be sweeps (or close to it) in some states for Dem House Reps but you'll see many impossible victories for GOP Senate in the same exact districts. Allen, Santorum, Burns, Kean--none of them can really win honestly from what i've heard.
posted by amberglow at 2:10 PM on November 7, 2006

The person voting in front of me had some kind of weird driver's license with a "suppressed address" because she was in law enforcement. The poll workers gave her a hard time since it didn't say which street she lived on.
posted by smackfu at 2:10 PM on November 7, 2006

"A huge surprise" -- one of CNN's fools, talking about Exit Polls right now on tv.
posted by amberglow at 2:12 PM on November 7, 2006

At least exit polling doesn't get reported before the actual polls are closed any longer.

Note that this was never done "officially". It was always held until after polls closed. It was just that the talking heads already knew the exit poll results and let it cloud their discussions.

They have been leaked to Drudge, etc., but that was always a leak.
posted by smackfu at 2:13 PM on November 7, 2006

oh, and look for Spitzer to have gigantic coattails in Upstate NY (the whole state really)-- gaining at least 5 House seats for Dems that were GOP.
posted by amberglow at 2:14 PM on November 7, 2006

Laura Ingraham Tells Listeners To Jam Voter Protection Hotline
posted by amberglow at 2:23 PM on November 7, 2006

raw story has some generic info on exit polls.
posted by spiderwire at 2:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Despite Delays, Most Polls Won't Extend Hours: ...Officials in Cook County, Ill., Colorado, Florida, Utah and Pennsylvania have been asked to grant extra time for voters to go to the polls, according to the non-partisan Election Protection pollwatching coalition. So far, none has agreed to do so.
posted by amberglow at 2:39 PM on November 7, 2006

Ingraham is such a cunt-beast it's not even funny.
posted by bardic at 2:39 PM on November 7, 2006

yup--she's trying to get the crown from Coulter (and all the rest of them), i guess.
posted by amberglow at 2:44 PM on November 7, 2006

i'm trying to come up with a hypothetical forcing bardic too choose between Laura Ingraham or Ann Coulter. and by "choose" i mean "have sexual relations with."
posted by spiderwire at 2:46 PM on November 7, 2006

In Missouri, a McCaskill vote registers over and over for Talent: ....The polling person leaned in very close to my wife and whispered, "We're f----d." ...
posted by amberglow at 2:47 PM on November 7, 2006

well, i'm officially more evil than amberglow.
posted by spiderwire at 2:48 PM on November 7, 2006

spider, try this: "It's either sex with Rove, Ingraham, or Coulter, or a hunting "party" with Cheney--which do you pick?" ; >
posted by amberglow at 2:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Video of "Mean" Jean Schmidt -- the woman who never served who accused Jack Murtha of cowardice -- not being able to vote.

This type of thing is going on everywhere. In addition to a big Dem victory, the most important story here is that Republicans are realizing that electronic voting is bad for the country, regardless of which party is in charge.

Expect lots of whining from Republicans about how Dems "stole" this one, even though most states have Republicans in charge of their voting infrastructure.

The death of Diebold would be good for everyone. Just do it like Oregon and mail it in.
posted by bardic at 2:51 PM on November 7, 2006

does it get to be all three at the same time?

that's what bill hicks would say if he were alive today. also, you and i are going to hell.
posted by spiderwire at 2:53 PM on November 7, 2006

Laura's a bit butch. Don't get me wrong, I think that can be kind of hot, but I doubt she'd have me. Coulter, with her fuck-me cocktail dresses and scrawny legs and arms? She's trying a little too hard.

Now Malkin -- there's someone I could make an honest woman out of.

/set sarcasm filter to "Extra Crispy"
posted by bardic at 2:53 PM on November 7, 2006

you can tell that we're all getting stressed out about the election :)

the line on tradesports is trending dem a bit. i'm such a junkie. i. need. news. give me exit polls, straight to the vein.
posted by spiderwire at 2:57 PM on November 7, 2006

uff, this is the point I like the least where the news is almost ready to break and all you get is bit and bytes. Comming up on 6pm on the e coast so hopefully we'll hear something of value soon
posted by edgeways at 2:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Now Malkin -- there's someone I could make an honest woman out of.

Plus, she has DSLs.
posted by sonofsamiam at 3:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Indiana polls close at 6pm EST, except for Delaware County which is closing at 8:45pm due to technical glitches, and some areas (not sure which) that close at 7pm EST.

Why yes, I am home with a spreadsheet with all of the House races listed and the important ones highlighted. Why do you ask?
posted by booksherpa at 3:01 PM on November 7, 2006

the tradesports chat says: "nconfirmed exit polls Dem Senate leads in VA (53-46), RI (53-46), PA (57-42), OH (57-43),"

add grain of salt comment here.
posted by spiderwire at 3:01 PM on November 7, 2006

Any idea why I (in the UK) had an automated message on my mobile at 3am from the Republican Party of Florida asking me to vote for Charlie Crist? Googled and found some stuff about Crist sending out spam emails but nothing about telephone messages, particularly to the UK.
posted by paduasoy at 3:01 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

also, you and i are going to hell.
I'm not going to any Christian hell, so if it's like an endless fabulous vacation in the most wonderful places in the world with all the people you ever loved or liked or had mind-blowingly great sex with or laughed with, count me in. : >

Pam's House Blend has a good rundown of each race by state according to when the polls close.
7pm is:
Georgia
Governor (now R): Lt. Gov Mark Taylor (D) vs. Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
8th District (now D): Rep. Jim Marshall (D) vs. former Rep. Mac Collins (R)
12th District (now D): Rep. John Barrow (D) vs. former Rep. Max Burns (R)

Indiana
Senator (now R): Richard G. Lugar (R), unopposed
2nd District (now R): Joe Donnelly (D) vs. Rep. Chris Chocola (R)
7th District (now D): Rep. Julia Carson (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R)
8th District (now R): Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Rep. John Hostettler (R)
9th District (now R): Baron Hill (D) vs. Rep. Mike Sodrel (R)

Kentucky
3rd District (now R): John Yarmuth (D) vs. Rep. Anne Northup (R)
4th District (now R): Ken Lucas (D) vs. Rep. Geoff Davis (R)

New Hampshire
Governor (now D): Gov. John Lynch (D) vs. State Rep. Jim Coburn (R)
2nd District (now R): Paul Hodes (D) vs. Rep. Charlie Bass (R)

South Carolina
Governor (now R): State Sen. Tommy Moore (D) vs. Gov. Mark Sanford (R)

Vermont
Governor (now R): Scudder Parker (D) vs. Gov. Jim Douglas (R)
Senator (now Indpt): Rep. Bernard Sanders (Indpt) vs. Rich Tarrant (R)
At Large House Seat (now Indpt): Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R)

Virginia
Senator (now R): Former Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D) vs. Sen. George Allen (R)
2nd District (now R): Phil Kellam (D) vs. Rep. Thelma Drake (R)
posted by amberglow at 3:01 PM on November 7, 2006

said the source was rawstory; same person was right earlier.

wow. the line for virginia just went straight dem. that was so cool to see.
posted by spiderwire at 3:04 PM on November 7, 2006

SENATE EXIT POLLS AS OF 5:30 EST: Democrats Leading: Virginia (52-47), Rhode Island (53-46), Pennsylvania (57-42), Ohio (57-43), New Jersey (52-45), Montana (53-46), Missouri (50-48), Maryland (53-46)…GOP Leading: Tennessee (51-48), Arizona (50-46)…

But the exit polls also had a Kerry landslide in 04, so mountain of salt etc
posted by CunningLinguist at 3:05 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm not going to any Christian hell, so if it's like an endless fabulous vacation in the most wonderful places in the world with all the people you ever loved or liked or had mind-blowingly great sex with or laughed with, count me in. : >

i was just watching where the evangelical nutjobs were headed and walking in the other direction...
posted by spiderwire at 3:06 PM on November 7, 2006

spider, they're in for a mighty unpleasant surprise, the way they act towards the rest of us.

So, If we're leading in VA, RI, PA, OH, NJ, MT, MI MD that's already more than enough to take the Senate. Do exit-pollers ask what kind of machines the voters used?

Massive turnout everywhere, i'm hearing.
posted by amberglow at 3:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Who you callin "we" paleface
posted by thirteenkiller at 3:16 PM on November 7, 2006

Oh, right. Like, all of us.
posted by thirteenkiller at 3:19 PM on November 7, 2006

Is there a list of all the Senate races somewhere, preferably as vanilla as possible (i.e. not in Flash)? I didn't make a spreadsheet for the Senate races, focused as I was on the House, and now I want to rectify that. I got my House one from Daily Kos, and it included a Senate sheet, but it only listed contested races.

Yeah, I'm a big geek.
posted by booksherpa at 3:19 PM on November 7, 2006

second post down, booksherpa.
posted by spiderwire at 3:21 PM on November 7, 2006

s there a list of all the Senate races somewhere, preferably as vanilla as possible (i.e. not in Flash)?

Here's what I'll be following from Talking Points Memo
posted by gurple at 3:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Leaked early CNN exit polls on Think Progress.

Probably worthless. But you can stand to look at a little Dem pr0n until the real results come in.
posted by felix betachat at 3:35 PM on November 7, 2006

got it, felix.
posted by spiderwire at 3:38 PM on November 7, 2006

Ah, my bad.
posted by felix betachat at 3:40 PM on November 7, 2006

16 precincts in OH are now going to be open til 10 because of e-voting problems--CNN just said.
posted by amberglow at 3:43 PM on November 7, 2006

i think all the exit polls are the same. if you want the real pr0n, you should be refreshing tradesports.com compulsively and watching the chat :)

i should be sedated for this.
posted by spiderwire at 3:44 PM on November 7, 2006

From television station WISH in Indiana :
A judicial order is allowing polls in Delaware County to stay open until 8:40 p.m. tonight, but those voting during the extended two hours and forty minutes will be voting using provisional ballots.

Also, the two Senate lists, while helpful, are not complete. One doesn't list challengers, the other only lists some of the races. I appreciate the help, though.
posted by booksherpa at 3:47 PM on November 7, 2006

full list of senate races
posted by spiderwire at 3:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Don't waste your energy following the PA race. I know Santorum's a favored foe of the left, and nothing will be sweeter than seeing him go down in flames, but he's been out of the race for months -- the last poll I saw (Quinnipiac, I believe) had him trailing by 15 points. The fact that the Republicans tossed out a sacrificial lamb (yes, that Lynn Swann) to get slaughtered by Ed Rendell in the gubernatorial race probably didn't help the GOP GOTV cause here.

As an aside, I took my five-year-old son with me to vote this evening. As we were walking home afterwards, I was explaining to him the importance of voting. I boiled it down to "we get to pick who runs the country for the next two years." His response was "Who did you pick, you or me?"
posted by Doofus Magoo at 3:58 PM on November 7, 2006 [3 favorites]

Doofus : >

the Socialist won in VT!
posted by amberglow at 4:01 PM on November 7, 2006

oh, did anyone put our contest picks into one file?
posted by amberglow at 4:04 PM on November 7, 2006

oh, it's just Sanders--i thought it was someone new.
posted by amberglow at 4:05 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN projects that an amendment to the Virginia Constitution defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman will pass.
posted by thirteenkiller at 4:24 PM on November 7, 2006

in Joplin, MO, MSNBC is reporting that twice the amount of people they expected actually showed up and they have been out of ballots for a few hours... They described it as a "mob scene" (and having been thru Joplin more than once, I can only imagine *shivers*)

That's huge... if half of the people who show up can't vote...

sorry, they don't have a link up yet
posted by WhipSmart at 4:26 PM on November 7, 2006

Don't waste your energy following the PA race. I know Santorum's a favored foe of the left, and nothing will be sweeter than seeing him go down in flames, but he's been out of the race for months

I'm following it because of my two extra predictions from the election contest: both him and Harris will cry during their concession speech. I also think Chafee might tear up a little.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 4:28 PM on November 7, 2006

OH went Strickland (D)--bye bye Blackwell!!!
posted by amberglow at 4:32 PM on November 7, 2006

that is so sweet to hear, no more blackwell - yay!
posted by madamjujujive at 4:33 PM on November 7, 2006

I have this scary feeling that Harris will be armed at her concession speech... and hilarity will ensue.
posted by WhipSmart at 4:33 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

MSNBC's coverage is actually good, so far
posted by amberglow at 4:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Olbermann is co-hosting MSNBC with Matthews.

Matthews had Delay on and called him a gentleman. Could there ever a greater misnomer for that sleazoid? According to him, they are already planning their obstructionist role.
posted by madamjujujive at 4:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Move On is offering a $250,000 Reward for Evidence Leading to Voter Fraud Conviction - I'll contribute to that!
posted by madamjujujive at 4:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Olbermann is co-hosting MSNBC with Matthews.
That's why it's good : >

Matthews is a tool, and hasn't had an original thought in his life. I think Matthews is way way off his usual game tho--he's making tons and tons of mistakes speaking. (but anything's better than Blitzer lately)
posted by amberglow at 4:48 PM on November 7, 2006

He's intimidated by Olbermann... I've met Keith and he's a big guy with a booming voice.
posted by WhipSmart at 4:52 PM on November 7, 2006

Voted on the way home from work noting my machine and vote number. Check.
Noticed wife hadn't signed the roster yet, went home, grabbed kiddos, and sent her to the polls. Check
XM radio on Rachel Maddow Show. Check.
TV on MSNBC with PIP on CNN. Check.
Firefox tabbed to the max with sites listed in this thread. Check.

Still, no faith we won't all get robbed again.

Guinness in abundance. Check,
posted by HyperBlue at 4:53 PM on November 7, 2006

It looks like the Goode/Weed race in Virginia is smokin'! Pundits are staring at their TV screens with intense, yet blank, faces. When asked for comment one simply said, "pizza would be awesome right now."

Looks like the Goode has defeated the Weed though.
posted by Pollomacho at 4:55 PM on November 7, 2006

I love how Matthews is doing his usual schtick amberglow -- he's got a pet theory that this race will be decided by white, middle and upper-middle class commuter voters, i.e., Reagan Democrats, i.e., swing voters. Which isn't a stupid observation, but it's fairly obvious and a bit tepid.

But you'd think he just won the Nobel Prize for punditry or something. He's just so into himself and his keen political mind, he doesn't realize that I happened to figure that shit out before I could even vote myself.

Olbermann's been good though -- called bullshit on DeLay within seconds of his appearance and the new Republican meme of a "lame-duck majority." Whatever the fuck that means.

Have to say, I think CNN's been the best so far. Carville has taken his meds and is stating an important truth for Dems -- if Webb doesn't win Senate in VA, Dems don't have a chance at the Senate.

Anyways, off to pick up a bottle of wine. This is gonna be a long night!
posted by bardic at 4:58 PM on November 7, 2006

you think, WhipSmart? (and if so, good!!!)
posted by amberglow at 4:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Katherine Harris has lost!

Oh noes!
posted by bardic at 5:00 PM on November 7, 2006

THIS JUST IN: BRIT-SPLIT OVER MIDTERMS, 107-75.

Keep an eye on this thread for developments as the evening progresses.
posted by mwhybark at 5:01 PM on November 7, 2006

bunch of numbers comming soon, polls just closed in some key spots
posted by edgeways at 5:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Harris is toast in FL--she'll be a regular on FOX News in 3, 2, 1....
posted by amberglow at 5:04 PM on November 7, 2006

Matthews: "Bill Nelson beating the fashionable but not politically successful Katherine Harris"

Comedy gold..

I still predict she shoots someone at her concession speech...
posted by WhipSmart at 5:04 PM on November 7, 2006

Patrick in Mass! very cool!
posted by amberglow at 5:06 PM on November 7, 2006

"the very fashionable" - wha???

Yay for me in Mass!
posted by madamjujujive at 5:07 PM on November 7, 2006

Katherine Harris has lost!

Oh noes!
posted by bardic at 9:00 AM ACST on November 8

Yes, but thatn God, Christ has risen (in the polls). I'll be here all night, tip you waitress.

Anybody here think Christ had an unfair advantage?
posted by Pollomacho at 5:07 PM on November 7, 2006

and amberglow, I did tabulate a spreadshet and emailed it to gsteff. I posted the MetaPick here and the data here. You can get the info out most easily by viewing source, copying the section, stripping the break tags, and saving as html, which excel should be able to open.
posted by mwhybark at 5:08 PM on November 7, 2006

VA is a squeaker so far.
posted by spiderwire at 5:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Nelson projected winner in Florida (senate). At least no one has to wonder how much longer Harris's bid was going to circle the drain.
posted by clevershark at 5:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Just like Kennedy and Bush II, I hear their respective Dads pulls a lot of strings for them.
posted by bardic at 5:10 PM on November 7, 2006

I bet Matthews is pissed that he's not sitting with Russert and Williams and Brokaw.
posted by amberglow at 5:10 PM on November 7, 2006

(I know, someone said it before me, but I wanted to go ahead and do my 'circling the drain' joke anyway)
posted by clevershark at 5:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Spiderwire: am still in awe of the madness that is the Tradesports chat room. Thanks for the link. Still hoping Webb can cling on...
posted by patricio at 5:12 PM on November 7, 2006

Va is flipping back and forth. sheesh
posted by edgeways at 5:13 PM on November 7, 2006

BBC reports Snowe holds on in Maine.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:14 PM on November 7, 2006

CW for Va (former resident speaking) is that Republicans tend to poll higher in the beginning, as the first precincts reporting are in rural areas. The more populace, and more Democratic, precincts (Nova, Albermarle County) report last.

Partially wishful thinking, but a Webb victory would help salve me if the Dems don't actually take the Senate. Allen is a scumbag, and he'll never be POTUS now thank god.
posted by bardic at 5:16 PM on November 7, 2006

Spiderwire: am still in awe of the madness that is the Tradesports chat room. Thanks for the link. Still hoping Webb can cling on...

it's like crack watching those people. don't pay attention too much when the lines wiggle by a few points, they have to settle. the webb race is driving them nuts right now :D ...for the most part they are looking at the same info as we are at the moment though. i imagine that the returns will run the numbers from here on out, but the betting lines will be pretty reliable since they will be counting up the results and extrapolating.

technically, since allen is the incumbent he's probably the one hanging on, but i'm right there with you.
posted by spiderwire at 5:17 PM on November 7, 2006

I seriously think if Webb wins the Dems take the senate
posted by edgeways at 5:18 PM on November 7, 2006

CBS has called Oh and Penn for the Ds, other outlets are more cautious
posted by edgeways at 5:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Man, I sure hope so. But we probably won't know who won MO for a few weeks and a few lawsuits, and TN isn't looking good for Ford.

/pessimist
posted by bardic at 5:21 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen has just shot ahead of Webb by several thousand votes. F5 the madness here.
posted by ed at 5:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Santorum is claiming voting problems have taken his votes away--sure
posted by amberglow at 5:22 PM on November 7, 2006

I don't think TN is going to Ford, last few mins have shown a tightening though, but I think TN goes R, Mont and Missouri goes D and who carries Va wins the shebang
posted by edgeways at 5:26 PM on November 7, 2006

NBC too, Casey for PA, just now, edge.
posted by amberglow at 5:27 PM on November 7, 2006

it's all virginia now. the other states are looking pretty good.

wow
posted by spiderwire at 5:28 PM on November 7, 2006

House races in IN and KY going Democratic. These were the "must win" Republican seats if they had any chance at holding the House.
posted by bardic at 5:29 PM on November 7, 2006

If there was any Republicans thinking they where going to hold the house there where on crack. It's just a matter of the margin of defeat and who wins the Senate that was in any play. Va, the new Fla.
posted by edgeways at 5:32 PM on November 7, 2006

Indiana 9th is really close. 44% precincts reporting right now and Democrat Baron Hill is four points ahead of Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel. Monroe County, in Indiana 9th, won't even begin to report until 9 pm, and Monroe County is where Indiana University is - a bit of a liberal enclave in a traditionally more conservative state. That bodes well for Baron Hill.

Indiana 8th has been called for Brad Ellsworth, meaning incumbent Republican John Hostettler is defeated. Congrats to Ellsworth!
posted by thirteenkiller at 5:32 PM on November 7, 2006

ford won't win.

the spread in VA is tight enough (1500) with half the precincts in that webb could easily pick up enough in fairfax to make up the difference.
posted by spiderwire at 5:33 PM on November 7, 2006

bah, scratch what i said, ed is right. screw cnn.

gonna sit back and give myself an ulcer now.
posted by spiderwire at 5:34 PM on November 7, 2006

I believe that if the Constitutional Amendment against gay marriage wasn't on the ballot in VA, Webb would be in the lead... That's a huge Republican get-out-the-vote motivator...
posted by WhipSmart at 5:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Menendez holds NJ : >
posted by amberglow at 5:35 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN calls Menendez (NJ) for the Dems.

This is good.

Steele/Cardin is still important though.
posted by bardic at 5:36 PM on November 7, 2006

I think that too, Whip--all the states that have those amendments will see the GOP keep most if not all of its seats.
posted by amberglow at 5:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Whip, I wouldn't doubt it. That is why there are these amendments in so many States this cycle. What is interesting is that despite these heavy motivators it is such a tight contest. Could well be that Ford would win in TN without the ballot questions that are currently being run up the flag pole. But who knows. *sigh* In Mn we use to have a Republican governor who refused to deal with issues such as banning same sex marriages etc, as he felt that wasn't what governance was about.
posted by edgeways at 5:39 PM on November 7, 2006

It's tightening for Webb, with Nova votes coming in now. Allen ain't gonna get a boost from those. 50-50. Hot damn!
posted by bardic at 5:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Ford can still get big numbers when Memphis and the West report, that's his base after all.
posted by Pollomacho at 5:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Jesus, why is Chris Matthews badgering Howard Dean?!
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 5:41 PM on November 7, 2006

What point is Chris Matthews trying to make with Howard Dean here..? He sounds like Bill O'Reilly.
posted by WhipSmart at 5:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Matthews never ever ever talks to repubs the way he did with Dean--ever
posted by amberglow at 5:42 PM on November 7, 2006

I bet Olbermann is chomping at the bit to counter Matthews on that topic...
posted by WhipSmart at 5:43 PM on November 7, 2006

look at him all smiley with catkiller Frist now--it's sad.
posted by amberglow at 5:44 PM on November 7, 2006

Not that anyone cares about the Kansas results (except for, maybe, Kansans...), but this is a pretty slick Election 2.0 returns page.
posted by cosmonaught at 5:44 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm noticing an odd differance in how numbers are posted in the VA race from CNN to sbe.vipnet.org Nothing diabolical, but they must be getting updates from different sources.
posted by edgeways at 5:45 PM on November 7, 2006

I think they got rid of Olbermann already--no 2-shots of them together anymore. I'm skipping CNN tonight--should i try FOX and see if they're sobbing (or blatantly lying as usual)? ; >
posted by amberglow at 5:45 PM on November 7, 2006

Not that it's really a nationally watched campaign, but Mike Beebe looks like he will win the Governorship in Arkansas... this is awesome after 8yrs of Republican foolishness...
posted by WhipSmart at 5:45 PM on November 7, 2006

TPM: Fox and CNN project Ellsworth as the winner over Hostettler in the Indiana 8th. Looks like a blowout in what was a very exepensive race in southwest Indiana.
There you have it. With Ellsworth's victory, you have the first House seat flipped from GOP to Democrat.
posted by madamjujujive at 5:46 PM on November 7, 2006

The NJ Senate race was pretty much a text-book example of lesser of two evils.

But I'll take the win, dammit.
posted by bardic at 5:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Matthews to Frist: I respect you

ugh
posted by amberglow at 5:47 PM on November 7, 2006

amberglow, this might be the only night I can think of where Fox might be fun...
posted by madamjujujive at 5:47 PM on November 7, 2006

amber, I'd watch FOX but I'm not really into schadenfreude at the moment...
posted by WhipSmart at 5:47 PM on November 7, 2006

We're gonna pick up a ton of Governorships tonight.

Watch upstate NY soon for many more pickups of formerly GOP House seats.
posted by amberglow at 5:49 PM on November 7, 2006

but they must be getting updates from different sources.

The news channels have different "filters" with regards to this date. I actually flipped over to FOX to witness crusty, droopy Brit Hume go on about it. I guess one difference for this cycle is that in many states with computer voting it will actually take longer to tabulate stuff, since it has to get fed into a central computer first.

Fuck computers.
posted by bardic at 5:49 PM on November 7, 2006

since it has to get fed into a central computer first.

A Diebold "VoteFlipper3000" ?

I hear places in Indiana and Kentucky and stuff that are always GOP might flip tonight too.
posted by amberglow at 5:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Bardic: Indeed. We got surprisingly few mailings/phone calls from that campaign though. We got way more from our local congressional race (Stender/Ferguson) which is just about the only possibly maybe (please!) semi-competitive House race in NJ. Ferguson was an ass this campaign, and his entire platform appeared to be schoolyard bullying, complete with rhyming taunts.
posted by booksherpa at 5:52 PM on November 7, 2006

Exit polls in MI show it is 50-50 on Prop 2., which would ban affirmative action.

I'll be up half the night, sweating it out again, apparently.

NPR says we had record turnout for a midterm election in the state, though.
posted by QIbHom at 5:53 PM on November 7, 2006

Woo, Sherrod Brown ftw! (Ohio Senate, Democratic pickup)
posted by thirteenkiller at 5:54 PM on November 7, 2006

Kos: Ohio: Sherrod Brown (pickup)
posted by madamjujujive at 5:54 PM on November 7, 2006

Ford is leading with 61% in Grundy county, the county that had a sign in it's county seat in the 60's that read, "N^%$&r, don't let the sun go down on your nappy head here!"

It's the place where the Highlander Folk School used to be until the sheriff raided it in 1962 and later it was burned to the ground.

Today though, they are voting far a black man for Senate! Even if Ford loses, I think that's a small victory.
posted by Pollomacho at 5:54 PM on November 7, 2006

Whenever CNN talks about Ellsworth and Hostettler, I can't help but think of Deadwood.

Watch out for firearms!
posted by robocop is bleeding at 5:55 PM on November 7, 2006

slaps thirteenkiller five! Ohio is particularly sweet...
posted by madamjujujive at 5:55 PM on November 7, 2006

I hear places in Indiana and Kentucky and stuff that are always GOP might flip tonight too.

KY's 3rd is very, very close. The incumbent is Anne Northup, and she's held the seat for the past 10 years. It was being called as a completely safe R within the past 6 weeks, though. If she pulls it off again, I'm moving.
posted by dilettante at 5:55 PM on November 7, 2006

Joe Scarborough is calling out Matthews... awesome...
posted by WhipSmart at 5:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Right on, Pollomacho!
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:57 PM on November 7, 2006

they're doing a Communist cell critique or something now on MSNBC, with Scarborough and Matthews trying to prove their independence or something--weird.
posted by amberglow at 5:59 PM on November 7, 2006

good luck, dilettante!
posted by amberglow at 5:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Santorum is getting clobbered--70something to 20something against him so far--very cool--he'll be able to go have all the man-on-dog sex he wants now.
posted by amberglow at 6:00 PM on November 7, 2006

fair lead opening up for Allen, someone more familiar with Va, can you comment on what counties are still left to count and their likely makeup?
posted by edgeways at 6:02 PM on November 7, 2006

My brother is a likely win. Woot!
posted by MrMoonPie at 6:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Thank god we finally got the Santorum off the Senate floor, now if we can just get it out of the paige's uniforms... (Yes, tasteless, I know, sorry)
posted by Pollomacho at 6:03 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

MSNBC is showing the VA race a lot closer than the official Virginia elections page is... MSNBC only has a difference of like 6K where the other site has a difference of over 30K
posted by WhipSmart at 6:05 PM on November 7, 2006

Whole bunch of races called, no big surprises... glad Mark Kennedey is finnaly out of Congress, yay Klobuchar!!
posted by edgeways at 6:05 PM on November 7, 2006

The counts from Missouri are starting to come in.

Allen's lead in VA has been cut to 7k.
posted by Doofus Magoo at 6:05 PM on November 7, 2006

oh, Pollomacho... and after making such a poignant post earlier.
posted by WhipSmart at 6:05 PM on November 7, 2006

fair lead opening up for Allen, someone more familiar with Va, can you comment on what counties are still left to count and their likely makeup?

i am looking through the precints and the previous returns. webb has a shot, but it doesn't look good.
posted by spiderwire at 6:06 PM on November 7, 2006

My brother is a likely win. Woot!
Autry, Autry, he's our man,
if he can't look at dirt (?)
no one can!!! : >
posted by amberglow at 6:06 PM on November 7, 2006

allen's lead is not 7K.
posted by spiderwire at 6:07 PM on November 7, 2006

I said I was sorry. *hangs head in shame*
posted by Pollomacho at 6:07 PM on November 7, 2006

sorry, that's not a static link:

G F Allen Republican 791,844 50.66%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 752,466 48.14%
posted by spiderwire at 6:07 PM on November 7, 2006

Ouch. I'd definitely be more inclined to trust the VA SBE page. Why such a big discrepancy, when CNN & MSNBC are both reporting at about 68%, while the VA SBE page is at 72?
posted by Doofus Magoo at 6:10 PM on November 7, 2006

the WH is happy that Lieberman will be going back
posted by amberglow at 6:12 PM on November 7, 2006

Guh. A same-sex marriage ban amendment is going to pass in SC. Not really a surprise I guess. Still disappointing.
posted by chiababe at 6:12 PM on November 7, 2006

NPR calls CT for Lieberman.
posted by QIbHom at 6:12 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm more energized watching the returns tonite than I was in 2004 when I was actually running for city council...

I didn't win *sob*
posted by WhipSmart at 6:12 PM on November 7, 2006

Doofus, see
posted by edgeways at 6:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Does Liebermann really count as an Ind. candidate? I mean he's going to rejoin the party after winning, no?
posted by Pollomacho at 6:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Doofus, you're starting from the assumption that CNN and MSNBC are useful sources of information in the first place. :)
posted by spiderwire at 6:13 PM on November 7, 2006

so... a 50/50 senate?
posted by edgeways at 6:14 PM on November 7, 2006

Lieberman has to remember that it's the republicans that put him there. This is a loss for the Democrats. Fuck him.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 6:15 PM on November 7, 2006

Pollomacho, Lieberman will caucus with the Dems (as will Sanders), but that doesn't mean he'll rejoin.
posted by QIbHom at 6:15 PM on November 7, 2006

with Cheney still presiding...
posted by WhipSmart at 6:15 PM on November 7, 2006

Northup has conceded!
posted by dilettante at 6:16 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb making a run for it:
G F Allen Republican 858,105 49.68%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 848,445 49.12%
posted by HyperBlue at 6:17 PM on November 7, 2006

Cardin in MD!
posted by amberglow at 6:18 PM on November 7, 2006

ooh hold on, big jump for Webb (hope springs eternal eh?)
posted by edgeways at 6:18 PM on November 7, 2006

keep trying, Whip! (and we need some elected Mefites--so we can blackmail you and stuff) ; >
posted by amberglow at 6:19 PM on November 7, 2006

yeah, BIG jump (about 25K votes)

anyone in VA, what counties are left to count..? Are they more left or right?
posted by WhipSmart at 6:19 PM on November 7, 2006

oh, I'll be running again in 2008... wanna run my campaign?
posted by WhipSmart at 6:19 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN calls MD for Cardin.

Fuck. Yes.
posted by bardic at 6:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Okay, Webb is catching up. He's about 10,000 votes behind, and this at 77%. It ain't over till it's over.
posted by ed at 6:20 PM on November 7, 2006

I still say Lieberman flips to R, esp if they don't give him a Chairmanship (which they shouldn't do, since he left the party)
posted by amberglow at 6:20 PM on November 7, 2006

WhipSmart check this out: VA by locality
posted by HyperBlue at 6:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Keep an eye on Hill/Sodrel in in the 9th in Indiana - the previous incumbent (Hill - D) is challenging the current one.
posted by dilettante at 6:21 PM on November 7, 2006

Yay, dilettante! Glad you don't have to move.

WhipSmart '08 starts here, starts now!
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:21 PM on November 7, 2006

what city is it, Whip? We can all help run it, i bet.
posted by amberglow at 6:21 PM on November 7, 2006

thanks, Hyper
posted by WhipSmart at 6:22 PM on November 7, 2006

webb is closing in VA. tradesports says that there are still a lot of suburban counties left.

wow wow wow
posted by spiderwire at 6:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Fayetteville, AR... not the metropolis from which a MeFi revolution would like to start, but hey...
posted by WhipSmart at 6:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Monroe County is starting to report in the Hill/Sodrel race, boosting the Hill numbers a lot. Woo hoo!
posted by thirteenkiller at 6:23 PM on November 7, 2006

As I mentioned, CW for VA is that Nova (heavily Dem) comes in last.

CW being what it is, but still -- VA needs to get to 80-85% reporting before we'll know, at least.
posted by bardic at 6:23 PM on November 7, 2006

Hyper's site doesn't bode well for Webb... most of the counties with precincts yet to report are overwhelmingly for Allen...
posted by WhipSmart at 6:25 PM on November 7, 2006

NPR calls Granholm over DeVos (Amway heir) for MI govenor. That was close, they are suprised to be calling it this early.
posted by QIbHom at 6:25 PM on November 7, 2006

They've already called MD for Cardin? I thought Steele had been pulling away in recent days.
posted by Doofus Magoo at 6:25 PM on November 7, 2006

whip, look at arlington and fairfax in the link above. still winnable.
posted by spiderwire at 6:27 PM on November 7, 2006

RI called and Whitehouse wins
posted by edgeways at 6:29 PM on November 7, 2006

spider, that's the site I was going by... it was an admittedly cursory glance at the remaining precincts, but it didn't look good.. I hope that I am wrong...
posted by WhipSmart at 6:32 PM on November 7, 2006

Steele was "pulling within" range, certainly not away.

As for Webb, fingers are firmly crossed. But we can look at it this way -- his would be the first loss of the night for Dems. So far, all is going heavy Democratic.

Of course, now I really want to hear from some more MO and TN mefites -- these are truly races to watch now.
posted by bardic at 6:34 PM on November 7, 2006

Ehrlich is out of the Maryland Governor's Mansion, maybe now there will be a sensible transit option in the DC suburbs and even, shudder's to think, a connection to Baltimore!
posted by Pollomacho at 6:38 PM on November 7, 2006

Anyone else having problems with the site here in the last 10-15 min... took me a long time to get this page to reload...
posted by WhipSmart at 6:39 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC is reporting a recount already in VA...
posted by WhipSmart at 6:40 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC's saying that, under VA law, Webb-Allen is in recount territory. I had a lot of issues with VA, but it ain't FL. So good. Remember that Allen was supposed to win this with over 60% and then run for POTUS. At least that ain't gonna happen.
posted by bardic at 6:44 PM on November 7, 2006

Steele was "pulling within" range, certainly not away.

Prince George's County - 0% reporting
Montgomery County - 3%
Baltimore City - 0%

Once these giant, lefty hammers fall Steele has no shot unless he already had a commanding lead from the Eastern Shore. He does not.
posted by Pollomacho at 6:45 PM on November 7, 2006

I am whip, seems ok now.
posted by Pollomacho at 6:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Yeah, Matthowie's obviously a Republican. :D
posted by bardic at 6:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Christ, it's still close in VA. With 85% of the precincts reporting, Webb is closing the 10,000 figure I cited above. Now he's down to 8,000. *fingers crossed*

I hope we get VA just for poetic justice.
posted by ed at 6:47 PM on November 7, 2006

Correction: now within 6,000 votes! (85% precincts)
posted by ed at 6:47 PM on November 7, 2006

me too Whip.

RI was surprising--we have 3 of 6 for the Senate!

Chris Matthews is an idiot--he's foaming at the mouth when it's the GOP who got us into this war and promised to continue it--unbelievable
posted by amberglow at 6:47 PM on November 7, 2006

Whitehouse wins RI in the Battle Royale of the WASPS. If anything, "maverick" Linc Chaffee was too hesitant to buck against Bush and Cheney and their idiotic war.

And another big loser? Chris Matthews. Olbermann is not only making him look shrill and frankly, kind of dumb, but he's doing it remaining calm and collected. Seeya Tweety -- Olbermann's going to be taking your job over in the next five years, if the networks don't pick him up.
posted by bardic at 6:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Pollo, i thought there was a Balt-DC link already?
posted by amberglow at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Oh em geeeeeee Webb!!! Goooooooooooo!!
posted by thirteenkiller at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Fuck me. Webb is now within TWO THOUSAND VOTES of Allen!
posted by ed at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

yeah, Matthews is a tool... Olbermann is just about to come down hard on him, I can just feel it.
posted by WhipSmart at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Zombie Mel Carnahan needs to do an intervention with the McCaskill/Talent results. It gets worse for her every time I refresh.

I really voted just for the senate race and amendment 2 and 3. Yeah, I know I should vote no on all amendments to the constitution on principle, but I wanted stem cell research and I sure as hell don't want cigarettes going up almost a dollar a pack.

Voting was a zoo. It was in one cramped conference room in the library. I don't even live in that precinct anymore. I just decided to show up with my license from 3 addresses ago and I was in the book under 2 addresses ago.

We had a choice between paper and electronic. I took paper, but at the very end I had to feed it into a Diebold scanner.
posted by pieoverdone at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

And this just in: Politicians Sweep Midterm Elections
posted by bardic at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb within 2k votes now
posted by WhipSmart at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Matthews is a total retard. He's going for the Democrats' jugular over Iraq and they're not even in power yet. Why is "We really don't know what to say in 30 seconds about this mess that we didn't create" such an unacceptable answer to him right now, on election night?
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 6:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Hyper's site doesn't bode well for Webb... most of the counties with precincts yet to report are overwhelmingly for Allen

Check out Richmond City. Still has 22 precincts to report and so far has been about 75% D. The problem is that the rest of the pcts need to be about 85% D in order to get the ~8,000 votes necessary. It's gonna be awfully close.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 6:50 PM on November 7, 2006

bardic, maybe that's why Matthews is so weird when they're together? He knows he's a dinosaur?

at 11, Dan Rather's on with Stewart and Colbert, live!
posted by amberglow at 6:50 PM on November 7, 2006

Crap. Christ wins governer's house in FL.
posted by bardic at 6:50 PM on November 7, 2006

Woah. Make that ~6,000 votes. :)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 6:50 PM on November 7, 2006

WhipSmart writes "Fayetteville, AR... not the metropolis from which a MeFi revolution would like to start, but hey..."

Will you be running on a platform that will get the Razorbacks some respect in the BCS? If so, I'm totally on board with your campaign. I was at the game the other night here in Columbia, and it was fan-freaking-tastic.

/sportsfilter
posted by chiababe at 6:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Now within 1,300 votes. Go Webb Go!
posted by ed at 6:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Shelby County, TN starting to come in, It's make or break time for Ford!
posted by Pollomacho at 6:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Regarding Virginia ...

It looks like the districts that haven't fully reported are leaning Democratic. For example, Richmond City has 46 of 68 precincts reporting, with 8,783 R and 24,423 D. So if that percentage held, Webb would be getting around 12,000 more votes, Allen around 4,000. And right now, the overall numbers are Allen: 966,232; Webb: 964,899 ... a difference of only 1,333 votes.


on preview ... Civil_Disobedient beat me to it.
posted by Alt F4 at 6:51 PM on November 7, 2006

oh man, forgot all about the Stewart/Colbert midtacular... damn, I need another TV in this office.
posted by WhipSmart at 6:52 PM on November 7, 2006

amberlgow, it's painfully obvious that Matthews doesn't like to share the anchor chair. You know he pitched a shit-fit when the execs told him he'd be doing this next to Olbermann, as opposed to turning to him for a "special segment."
posted by bardic at 6:53 PM on November 7, 2006

Dang. ~3,000 behind in VA.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 6:54 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb now 3,300 votes behind. 87.27% precincts reporting.
posted by ed at 6:54 PM on November 7, 2006

chiababe, that won't happen until they beat Tennessee this weekend...

and, yes, one cannot run in Fayetteville without some sort of platform regarding the University... :)
posted by WhipSmart at 6:54 PM on November 7, 2006

Even Ford's closing the gap. Still over 60% of votes to be counted.
posted by clevershark at 6:54 PM on November 7, 2006

VA's totally going to go D. By maybe 4,000 votes. (IMHO)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 6:56 PM on November 7, 2006

So ... would Gail Parker have pulled more votes from Webb? Or Allen? I hadn't been paying attention to her, honestly. She's IG, so that would have pulled from Webb, right? She currently has almost 22,000 votes.
posted by Alt F4 at 6:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Steve Minarik, chairman of New York’s Republican party, acknowledged a few minutes ago that his candidates are in a tough slog, and he seems to be holding onto Christopher Callaghan as the state party’s only possible victor. ...

: >
posted by amberglow at 6:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Um, wtf just happened to VA?
posted by thirteenkiller at 6:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Dems need to win 3/4 out of VA, MT, MO, TN.

It's gonna be tough, but so far so good.

Go Webb!
posted by bardic at 6:58 PM on November 7, 2006

Wha? What just happened?
posted by Alt F4 at 6:58 PM on November 7, 2006

doesn't Matthews know that Olbermann gets better ratings than him, and gets way way more buzz?
posted by amberglow at 6:58 PM on November 7, 2006

yeah, just noticed that too, 13... a 25K swing in one swoop.
posted by WhipSmart at 6:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Shit, looks like some R strongholds were holding out.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 6:59 PM on November 7, 2006

ahh... this must be Santorum's concession speech... should be interesting
posted by WhipSmart at 7:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Might have been Virginia Beach. Rich town.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Santorum Concession in 3, 2, 1,
posted by HyperBlue at 7:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Santorum is giving his concession speech on MSNBC.

Matthews is gushing about how committed to his "values" he is.

I agree. If this was the 15th century, I might vote for the guy.

But I think writing a book saying that women shouldn't have jobs kind of sealed the deal between him and the rest of the non-theocratic world.
posted by bardic at 7:01 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb now 1,500 behind! Christ!
posted by ed at 7:01 PM on November 7, 2006

Santorum conceding. So sweet.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 7:02 PM on November 7, 2006

poor Santorum--not ; >
posted by amberglow at 7:02 PM on November 7, 2006

Santorum's daughter is taking this pretty hard.
posted by birdherder at 7:02 PM on November 7, 2006

Make me dizzy, sheesh, back within 1%
posted by edgeways at 7:02 PM on November 7, 2006

SUCK IT, SANTORUM.
posted by stenseng at 7:02 PM on November 7, 2006

Ah shit..Webb now behind 18,000. Those must have been the Allen votes. This could go either way. 91.53%
posted by ed at 7:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Aw jeez. Santorum's kids are crying. That kid is awfully goofy looking.
posted by chiababe at 7:03 PM on November 7, 2006

I think Matthews is trying to do Olbermann-style commentary or something--really badly.
posted by amberglow at 7:03 PM on November 7, 2006

we swept Indiana?
posted by amberglow at 7:03 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN doesn't have the Mn govs race listed. :( ?
posted by edgeways at 7:04 PM on November 7, 2006

where are you seeing that, ed? My numbers show Webb is 18K behind
posted by WhipSmart at 7:04 PM on November 7, 2006

Dem sweep in Indiana. Nice.
posted by stenseng at 7:05 PM on November 7, 2006

Minnesota Senate race here. HUGE MARGIN!
posted by ed at 7:05 PM on November 7, 2006

Whip: Ed's on a 5 minute delay.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:06 PM on November 7, 2006

are they not real contests, edge?
posted by amberglow at 7:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Just updated, WhipSmart. Your numbers are right.
posted by ed at 7:06 PM on November 7, 2006

18k with 200 pcts to go...
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:07 PM on November 7, 2006

oh, Count Chocola's gone too--good!
posted by amberglow at 7:08 PM on November 7, 2006

CBS: "I've talked with people inside the White House and they describe the mood as glum."
posted by ed at 7:09 PM on November 7, 2006

it's fun to watch Matthews be so bad on-air (or rather, bad in different ways) : >
posted by amberglow at 7:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Paul Hodes (D) looking good to take Charlie Bass's House seat in NH District 2. Carol Shea-Porter (D) is going to lose in a squeaker in NH District 2. Too bad, Shea-Porter ran one heck of a grassroots campaign.
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:10 PM on November 7, 2006

The Mn Senate seat was'nt even close for the Rs, but the Govs race was suppose to be very tight... found it on a different site, just surprised CNN omitted it
posted by edgeways at 7:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Colbert and Stewart are on? Comedy Central has some stand up person.
posted by pieoverdone at 7:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Democrats didn't win all the house seats in Indiana, just (probably) the three getting all the attention.
posted by thirteenkiller at 7:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb now behind a little less than 20,000. 92.18%
posted by ed at 7:12 PM on November 7, 2006

Remember when Santorum was a serious contender for POTUS?
posted by bardic at 7:12 PM on November 7, 2006

(Well, and possibly others - but not everything.)
posted by thirteenkiller at 7:12 PM on November 7, 2006

Talent over McCaskill 53% to 43%. 16% reporting. Ugh.
posted by pieoverdone at 7:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen's lead appears to be growing, not shrinking, and Webb is down @26,000. Looks pretty bad.
posted by gsteff at 7:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Pollo, i thought there was a Balt-DC link already?
posted by amberglow at 10:49 AM ACST on November 8

You can take the MARC train. It's slow and expensive. We need either Balt light rail to extend a couple more miles or the DC metro to, or both to meet.
posted by Pollomacho at 7:13 PM on November 7, 2006

ed has newer numbers than me.
posted by gsteff at 7:14 PM on November 7, 2006

Doyle (D-Gov) wins in WI, Yay. another close race
posted by edgeways at 7:14 PM on November 7, 2006

Most of those were from Franklin County. The big cities still have a sizeable % of pcts that haven't reported yet. It could still go to Webb.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:15 PM on November 7, 2006

19,385 by my numbers, gsteff. 92.26%
posted by ed at 7:15 PM on November 7, 2006

Anyone have a sense of the overall house picture yet?
posted by gsteff at 7:15 PM on November 7, 2006

pieoverdone---at 11 for an hour, live.

ah, pollo--that's like a billion dollar project tho--MD can afford it?
posted by amberglow at 7:16 PM on November 7, 2006

Talent over McCaskill 53% to 43%. 16% reporting. Ugh.
posted by pieoverdone at 11:13 AM ACST on November 8

Stay calm:

St. Louis City - 1% reporting
posted by Pollomacho at 7:18 PM on November 7, 2006

Granholm (probably the most vulnerable Dem incumbent governorship) claims victory.

Rustbelt, REPRESENT!
posted by Chrischris at 7:18 PM on November 7, 2006

gsteff: Many of the House races are too close to call right now.
posted by ed at 7:19 PM on November 7, 2006

Eff Santorum and his ilk.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 7:20 PM on November 7, 2006

gsteff, we need 8 more seats, according to the DCCC
posted by amberglow at 7:20 PM on November 7, 2006

ah, pollo--that's like a billion dollar project tho--MD can afford it?

It's cheaper than another Bay Bridge and Ehrlich wanted to build that. I don't think it's going to happen, just a dream.
posted by Pollomacho at 7:21 PM on November 7, 2006

Talent over McCaskill 53% to 43%. 16% reporting. Ugh.
posted by pieoverdone at 9:13 PM CST on November 7

Not really anything in from Kansas City, and very little from St. Louis, so I wouldn't give up yet.
posted by cosmonaught at 7:21 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb has closed to 11,000 votes. 92.8%
posted by ed at 7:22 PM on November 7, 2006

tradesports is now showing the SENATE.GOP.2006 at 87.5. It's shot up 6.5 since I started typing this. For a frame of reference it was at 55 even at 19:11 EST.

On preview, it's moving like crazy and down to 82.5.
posted by sequential at 7:23 PM on November 7, 2006

Bah..I did my math wrong. That's 21,000 votes. Sorry.
posted by ed at 7:23 PM on November 7, 2006

Ed, I do believe your math is off- that's 21,000 votes (60-39).
posted by hincandenza at 7:24 PM on November 7, 2006

Someone really needs to put Tweety out of his misery.
posted by clevershark at 7:27 PM on November 7, 2006

hate to sound like a skipping CD (is the term broken record even relevant anymore?) but looking at the precincts left in VA, Webb is going to have to have a miraculous showing to close the gap...

I think it's still in the 'automatic recount' area, however...
posted by WhipSmart at 7:28 PM on November 7, 2006

what's with the lighting for McCain? Did he just have work done?
posted by amberglow at 7:28 PM on November 7, 2006

So far Santorum appears to have done worse in PA than Mondale did nationwide in 1984. Now THAT's something.
posted by clevershark at 7:29 PM on November 7, 2006

Liebermann must be sitting at home making out his list of demands right now. He's like a bank robber with 300 million hostages!

I want:

A private jet.
Fellatio from Howard Dean on national TV...
posted by Pollomacho at 7:29 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Sitting in IN-9 I'm not going to call it until I read about a concession speech. This race has been bloody on both sides, with both Sodrel and Hill making accusations of vote fraud in 2004. A Hill lead of 5,000 would help me sleep more comfortably.

Perhaps one indication of where things swing in Indiana is the Senate race. Yes, the Dems here chickened out of challenging Lugar. (I feel it's worthwhile to challenge even loosing races.) But Libertarian Osborn is pulling 12%.

I have mixed feelings about Lugar myself. I count him as one of the few Republicans I respect but still felt the need to cast my vote for Osborn.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 7:30 PM on November 7, 2006

not sure if anyone posted already, if so sorry, but here are the State results for Missouri, they are fresher than CNN et al
posted by edgeways at 7:30 PM on November 7, 2006

Question:
Are CNN counting Lieberman in the "Democrat" pile even though he is listed as "Other"?
posted by papakwanz at 7:30 PM on November 7, 2006

In case anyone cares ...

I did some projections based on the precincts that haven't yet reported in VA, based off of their partnered counties (that is, assuming the flavor of the remaining precincts in a county will echo the votes of the already-reporting precincts) ... you with me? ... and I found that ...

Allen should get 53,008 more votes,
Webb should get 70,511 more votes.

Putting those up to the current numbers (which isn't totally accurate, since more precincts have reported since I did my math a few minutes ago), but that yields:

Allen: 1,116,780
Webb: 1,115,856
posted by Alt F4 at 7:30 PM on November 7, 2006

I was going to check out the CNN coverage, but I noticed they had Bill "High Stakes" Bennett on. I'd prefer to watch a panel with some credibility...
posted by clevershark at 7:31 PM on November 7, 2006

Yeah, looks like the GOP holds the Senate. In MO, Talent is up by 10% with 20% reporting, the same percentage he had at 10%. Not a good sign.
posted by gsteff at 7:32 PM on November 7, 2006

I am getting too sleepy to stay up and watch this stuff. At least the Arkansas races are looking good so far. It looks really good for Beebe. Arkansas does NOT need a dim bulb like Asa running the state after suffering through Huckabee. So I hope the trend continues for Beebe. And Lt. Governor, Attorney General both look like the Dems will win.

And on a more local note, looks like Lynn Carver is doing good. I hope she wins. She seems like a very intelligent woman.
posted by weretable and the undead chairs at 7:32 PM on November 7, 2006

And where's the ranting at McCain about Iraq like he did to Dean?
posted by amberglow at 7:32 PM on November 7, 2006

So, like, who are these 25,000 or whatever people who went to the polls in VA and voted for the Green Party guy?
posted by Mid at 7:32 PM on November 7, 2006

Alt F4, don't forget the >100,000 absentee ballots still to be counted.
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:33 PM on November 7, 2006

If Webb goes down (sniffle), I still think Dems will pick up MT. MO and TN are long shots, and the Rep's will maintain the Senate.

Expect this meme for tomorrow's papers -- "Dem win is really a loss" from the so-called librul media.

I'm be pleased as punch, however. Four words -- Speaker Pelosi, subpoena power.
posted by bardic at 7:33 PM on November 7, 2006

excellent analysis, F4... thanks...
posted by WhipSmart at 7:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Girl. But yeah. Jackasses.
posted by Alt F4 at 7:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Folks, what do you make of this? Cokie Roberts is on ABC declaring that the Democrats are "picking off the low-hanging fruit."
posted by ed at 7:34 PM on November 7, 2006

(my comment was to Mid's question about the people voting for the Green candidate.)

Thanks, WhipSmart.
posted by Alt F4 at 7:35 PM on November 7, 2006

KirkJobSluder, I voted for Osborn too. :D

I think Hill has this one. Don't be too worried.
posted by thirteenkiller at 7:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Mid writes "So, like, who are these 25,000 or whatever people who went to the polls in VA and voted for the Green Party guy?"

Butterfly ballots?
posted by clevershark at 7:35 PM on November 7, 2006

And why does Laura Bush look like a Kaibuki mask?
posted by Mid at 7:36 PM on November 7, 2006

i'm still not sure how i'm supposed to feel about all this. no matter what this election is looking like an epic, historic facecrush, but IT'S NOT ENOUGH.
posted by spiderwire at 7:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Bill Clinton reduced to a clapping automaton during Hillary's victory speech.
posted by ed at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2006

Are CNN counting Lieberman in the "Democrat" pile even though he is listed as "Other"?

Yes, and Sanders too (VT). They'll caucus with Dems.

As for absentee ballots, a lot of those will be military and will go for Allen. But, there's gonna be a recount in VA, which is fine with me. Keep that racist spitter Allen stewing in his lost hopes of ever running for POTUS as long as possible.
posted by bardic at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2006

BBC News is showing the Lieberman speech... and identifying him as a dem. I'm starting to develop doubts about British journalism!

Oh well. Apparently investing in campaign thugs and spending $300k in magical mystery money pays off.
posted by clevershark at 7:37 PM on November 7, 2006

So, like, who are these 25,000 or whatever people who went to the polls in VA and voted for the Green Party guy?

did you not get the memo about Gore being the same as Bush?
posted by spiderwire at 7:38 PM on November 7, 2006

weretable and the undead chairs - the most dramatic result thus far is that John Boozman is behind at this point... it doesn't mean that he will lose, but any other election cycle, it wouldn't even be close...

For those who don't know, a Democrat being elected in Northwest Arkansas just doesn't happen. 6 of the 10 richest people in the world are from Benton County (Waltons of Wal-Mart infamy) and that money ensures a Republican stranglehold in the Arkansas...

It is such a hard thing to conceive that many of the local news organizations aren't even showing the results of the race on their websites because it is always a foregone conclusion...

Stunning...
posted by WhipSmart at 7:38 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb now behind Allen by 11,000 votes. 94.15%
posted by ed at 7:38 PM on November 7, 2006

ed writes "Webb now behind Allen by 11,000 votes. 94.15%"

Since the vote was at 89% he made up 22,000 votes from the split. There's still a glimmer there.
posted by clevershark at 7:39 PM on November 7, 2006

my previous post should read "and that money ensures a Republican stranglehold in the Arkansas 3rd"

/must learn to preview
posted by WhipSmart at 7:40 PM on November 7, 2006

Hillary's actually giving a good speech now.
posted by amberglow at 7:40 PM on November 7, 2006

Heh. Hillary wants to thank "her partner," and then says "Chuck Schumer."

Sorry, but that's funny.
posted by bardic at 7:41 PM on November 7, 2006

ed, where are you getting the VA numbers? Faster than the sites I'm checking.
posted by gsteff at 7:41 PM on November 7, 2006

you what's great about Olbermann and Matthews--Olbermann doesn't respond to, nor care about, Matthews' idiotic utterances about Democrats and especially Hillary all the time.
posted by amberglow at 7:42 PM on November 7, 2006

Watching the Clinton acceptance speech... good gods, Bill looks like he's sucking a lemon. Would it kill him to smile for 2 seconds?
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:43 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb now behind Allen by 11,000 votes. 94.15%

NYT says Webb is down 32,000 with 93%. I think your numbers are bad.
posted by gsteff at 7:43 PM on November 7, 2006

MO isn't looking good, but only 1/3 in so far.
posted by spiderwire at 7:43 PM on November 7, 2006

THIS JUST IN: MIDTERMS CRUSHING BRIT-SPLIT, 315-118.

More in this thread as this stunning defeat develops. Over to you, Q or Q-stand-in.
posted by mwhybark at 7:43 PM on November 7, 2006

gsteff: Link. Faster than television, faster (apparently) than Josh Marshall and Company. Go directly to the source.
posted by ed at 7:43 PM on November 7, 2006

btw we just sent the first Muslim to congress
posted by edgeways at 7:43 PM on November 7, 2006

Virginia Election Results from the Board of Elections: http://sbe.vipnet.org/
posted by armage at 7:44 PM on November 7, 2006

The results I have been seeing are showing Boozman ahead. I hope you saw newer ones because I would love to see him lose.
posted by weretable and the undead chairs at 7:44 PM on November 7, 2006

Fuck the New York Times. I'm getting these directly from the source. :)
posted by ed at 7:45 PM on November 7, 2006

ed's link is where I've been getting the info as well.
posted by edgeways at 7:45 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb now down 12,000. I'm beginning to have doubts. 95.13%
posted by ed at 7:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Mehlman is so Haggard-esque.
posted by amberglow at 7:46 PM on November 7, 2006

first Muslim to congress
Excellent! It's past time.
posted by amberglow at 7:47 PM on November 7, 2006

I just did some quick analysis of the numbers, and for precincts where Webb is > 50%, there are still 137 pcts. left to report.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:47 PM on November 7, 2006

Go Bloomington in the 9th!

Mind you as a teenager I was quite rude to Frank McCloskey, the last Dem house Rep there, but I forgive myself on the grounds of youth.
posted by mwhybark at 7:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Er, districts where Webb > 50%.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Man, Ken Mehlman is such a fish faced ass weasel. Uffda.
posted by stenseng at 7:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Haggard?
posted by Mid at 7:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Ken Mehlman LOL!!!111!!!
posted by bardic at 7:48 PM on November 7, 2006

A revision of my probably-faulty analysis from before, with updated numbers ...

Allen: 1,127,257
Webb: 1,127,866
posted by Alt F4 at 7:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Still a lot of Democratic strongholds yet to report 100%, ed: Newport News, Norfolk, Richmond, Petersburg, etc. But it will be tough for Webb to match Allen, IMO. There's definitely going to be a recount.
posted by armage at 7:49 PM on November 7, 2006

oil! Bush used it too, about Iraq.
posted by amberglow at 7:49 PM on November 7, 2006

yeah, weretable and the undead chairs, as soon as I posted, Boozman pulled ahead 53%-47%

Even that is a massive swing against most elections in NWArk
posted by WhipSmart at 7:49 PM on November 7, 2006

C_D I think there is only 119 precincts left to report in total
posted by edgeways at 7:50 PM on November 7, 2006

Thanks, Edgeways. I'd forgotten about the Ellis race.

He's a native Detroiter. I bet the local Muslims are happy. I know I am.
posted by QIbHom at 7:50 PM on November 7, 2006

So, like, who are these 25,000 or whatever people who went to the polls in VA and voted for the Green Party guy?

The Virgina Green Party is actually conservative. - it's not the same as the National Green Party. They're taking votes from Allen.
posted by granted at 7:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Foley's seat went D! yay!
posted by amberglow at 7:52 PM on November 7, 2006

Atrios says that abortion ban foes in SD have a sizeable lead.
posted by madamjujujive at 7:52 PM on November 7, 2006

armage: Oh, no doubt about it. I'm getting too drunk to check, but what's the story with Webb & Allen's respective attorneys? With an election this close, a recount is inevitably in the cards.

Not looking good for Webb with 95.58% precincts reporting. He's trailing by 13,000.
posted by ed at 7:53 PM on November 7, 2006

91 pcts left to report where Webb is the current leader in the district.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:53 PM on November 7, 2006

VA is just waiting on prince william county. absent a recount it's over, that county's split down the middle. the missouri line is going GOP still.
posted by spiderwire at 7:54 PM on November 7, 2006

Looks like the Dems might pick up a house seat in a Kansas upset-- Boyda is leading Ryun by 8 point in the 2nd, with 59% reporting.
posted by cosmonaught at 7:54 PM on November 7, 2006

TOM: Another one bites the dust.

Rep. Curt Weldon, the embattled Republican from Pennsylvania under federal criminal investigation, goes down to retired Admiral Joe Sestak.
posted by madamjujujive at 7:55 PM on November 7, 2006

You know what wuld be funny... if Allen actually won the seat, but this FBI probe in to voter intimidation implicates him. Now THAT would be funny
posted by edgeways at 7:55 PM on November 7, 2006

Revised numbers show Shea-Porter (D) opening a lead in NH District 1.
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:55 PM on November 7, 2006

edgeways: I could be a bit off since it took me a couple of minutes to write the algorithm.

Anyway, where Webb is in the lead, there are still 91 pcts. left to report (as opposed to 17 where Allen is in the lead).
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 7:56 PM on November 7, 2006

NBC says 29 seats total in the end for the House.
posted by amberglow at 7:56 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC is projecting a 29 seat gain in the House by the Democrats..
posted by WhipSmart at 7:56 PM on November 7, 2006

TOM=TPM, duh. That was from Josh Marshall.
posted by madamjujujive at 7:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Daily Show special--5 minutes
posted by amberglow at 7:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Haven't heard much about that, ed. But I'm just monitoring the SBE site and listening to NPR from my headquarters up here in Rosslyn. (Voted absentee down in Hanover, though, for all the good it did me...)
posted by armage at 7:57 PM on November 7, 2006

The BBC says Dems take the House!
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Re: Webb.

Thirty-four precincts left in Prince Wiliam, fourteen precincts in Richmond, five in Newport News, five in Norfolk, two in Fairfax, one in Virginia Beach, one in Isle of Wright, four in Petersburg. and a few more.

Alt-F4, you have any trusty prognostication?
posted by ed at 7:59 PM on November 7, 2006

231-204 -- that's a lot : >
posted by amberglow at 7:59 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm waiting for Mark Green's concession speech before I rest safely knowing Doyle's still gov.
posted by drezdn at 7:59 PM on November 7, 2006

My own fuzzy VA math prediction:

Allen: 1,139,537
Webb: 1,148,334
Green Indy: 25,900
writein: 2,225
posted by HyperBlue at 7:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Checking in again ...

Allen: 1,118,993
Webb: 1,116,635
posted by Alt F4 at 8:00 PM on November 7, 2006

ESTA LA HORA DEL MIDTERM MIDTACULAR!
posted by mwhybark at 8:00 PM on November 7, 2006

G F Allen Republican 1,098,740 49.68%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,086,199 49.11%
posted by HyperBlue at 8:01 PM on November 7, 2006

ok, the switch to Comedy Central has been made... I'm counting on all of you to give me updates of the non-fake news type..
posted by WhipSmart at 8:01 PM on November 7, 2006

CN N reports 47 Demos to 46 Republicans in the Senate. 7 undecided races.
posted by ed at 8:02 PM on November 7, 2006

For some reason, all 11 precincts in Craig County (very rural and Republican, IIRC) are still reading 0%.

But the Prince William results could be a shocker.
posted by armage at 8:02 PM on November 7, 2006

First female Speaker of the House too!
posted by amberglow at 8:02 PM on November 7, 2006

12.5K vote differance with 4% to go. Allen is in with a recount to go I think
posted by edgeways at 8:02 PM on November 7, 2006

87 / 16 (Webb pcts remaining vs. Allen pcts remaining)

I still say it's going to be within a couple thousand votes. Hopefully D, but it could go any way.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Oh man, the House race in Iowa 2 has only 12 votes separating the candidates (36,318 to 36,306), with 30% reported.
posted by thirteenkiller at 8:03 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN's site has these numbers:

Allen: 1,097,265
Webb: 1,068,549

96% reporting
posted by you just lost the game at 8:03 PM on November 7, 2006

ed -

I trust my math, but that doesn't mean much :)

I'm just revising my spreadsheet as the new numbers come in. It all rests on the assumption that precincts within counties will vote like the other precincts in their same counties. Obviously, that's a shaky foundation, but ... hey ... it's something. And as precincts report in and counties "drop out" of the forecast (since there are no more "potential" votes), it gets closer to being "accurate."

I'll make sure to indicate that my numbers are hypothetical projections from now on, so they don't look like ACTUAL numbers. Sorry if that's confused anybody.
posted by Alt F4 at 8:04 PM on November 7, 2006

hahahahaha. deflating.
posted by weretable and the undead chairs at 8:05 PM on November 7, 2006

"Subpoena power."

About time.
posted by homunculus at 8:05 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm not so sure I want Pelosi as speaker... I'm not against her, really, but her adamant claims that there will not be impeachment hearings irks me a bit. I'm not saying that I want this congress to become mired in all of that, but to completely dismiss is out of hand before there are any investigations bothers me.
posted by WhipSmart at 8:05 PM on November 7, 2006

lost the game... as mentioned upthread. Go here for better numbers
posted by edgeways at 8:05 PM on November 7, 2006

I hope that's 1,086,549 for Webb, otherwise CNN's numbers are pretty funky. They're getting the numbers from the same place we are, so they're no faster or more accurate than the SBE.
posted by armage at 8:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Prince William County presidential results from 04. It's a Repub county.
posted by spiderwire at 8:06 PM on November 7, 2006

ahhh!!! Santorum was Raptured!!!! lol!
posted by amberglow at 8:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Okay, so CNN is reporting 47 Demos to 46 Repubs in the Senate.

The undeclared states: Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia.

So let's say Allen wins Virginia, which makes things 47-47. What of the other races?
posted by ed at 8:07 PM on November 7, 2006

wait, gloryhole cam? where is my midterm midtacular? DAMN YOU STEWART!

I may have to blame canada.
posted by mwhybark at 8:07 PM on November 7, 2006

Grr. With my basic maths, if things keep going the way they're going, it looks like Webb will close the gap to about 5k, but will still lose.

Hey, at least we got the House.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:07 PM on November 7, 2006

Why do they hate the West Coast so much? Couldn't they air the Stewart-Colbert show now at 8 (instead of a rerun from yesterday) and then replay it at 11? Boo.

In other news, where I can find out about propositions and if they passed? I'm a midterm newbie (and couldn't vote anyway as a Permanent Resident) but I'm awfully anxious to find out about 85 (parental notifications) here in California.
posted by livii at 8:08 PM on November 7, 2006

WhipSmart, she's taken impeachment off the table... for now. First time Shrublet steps out of line, it can reappear. Just a matter of choosing one's battles.
posted by Pallas Athena at 8:08 PM on November 7, 2006

Thanks, edgeways!
posted by you just lost the game at 8:08 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN projects Dems take House.
posted by fold_and_mutilate at 8:08 PM on November 7, 2006

The latest numbers in VA:

Allen: 1,100,751
Webb: 1,088,293

96.28%
posted by ed at 8:09 PM on November 7, 2006

I agree that she, or any other speaker, should come into the position on an impeachment platform, but she's making a very big point that it won't happen. Just sayin'...
posted by WhipSmart at 8:09 PM on November 7, 2006

there was still no reason for pelosi to say that right now. it's idiotic to come out of the gate saying, "oh, don't worry, we're not going to do anything." good christ, you just cleaned the GOP's clock in the house and you capitulate before they even *say* anything!? i'm sorry, that's just fucking pathetic.
posted by spiderwire at 8:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Hate to go back to CNN, but they're saying we've got the House!

W00t!!
posted by you just lost the game at 8:10 PM on November 7, 2006

that should read "that neither she, or any other speaker

/preview, dammit, preview...
posted by WhipSmart at 8:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Woah, 86-5, Webb pcts. in favor. 13k votes to bridge the distance. That means there are only 5 precincts left that haven't reported where Allen is the favorite, while there are 86 left that haven't reported where Webb is in the lead.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:10 PM on November 7, 2006

omg--jesus to osama
posted by amberglow at 8:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Dems needs to win all three seats for MT, MO, and TN. That's not going to happen.

Still good news overall though, and if Burns does win in MT, he's going to be indicted soon for his Abramoff connections.
posted by bardic at 8:11 PM on November 7, 2006

spiderwire, Prince William went 52.92% R vs 46.32 D in the 2004 race. The population has gone up since then, and it could mean an even closer split between R and D.

Source: http://web.archive.org/web/20041105044732/sbe.vipnet.org/nov2004/l_01.htm
posted by armage at 8:11 PM on November 7, 2006

18 of which are in Richmond City -- where Webb is leading Allen, 72% to 26%.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Well, WhipSmart, you may be right. We'll see... in the future, which is looking rosier by the minute!
posted by Pallas Athena at 8:12 PM on November 7, 2006

"Couldn't they air the Stewart-Colbert show now at 8 (instead of a rerun from yesterday) and then replay it at 11? Boo."

AAUUUGGH.

I am Charlie Brown, and Stewart is Lucy.

/SHAKES FIST
posted by mwhybark at 8:12 PM on November 7, 2006

unless, bardic, Webb pulls out in VA (unlikely). That would mean that the Dems would only need to win two of the remaining 3 seats... TN isn't going to happen, so that leaves Montana and Missouri. We won't know Missouri for a long time (given the amazing problems they had in that state today) and I ashamedly don't know enough about the Montana race to make a prediction...
posted by WhipSmart at 8:14 PM on November 7, 2006

It's now 79/5 (D/R), with 12k between them.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:14 PM on November 7, 2006

Still no word from the 18 left in Richmond!
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:14 PM on November 7, 2006

Burns is all tied up in Abramoff, but he might stilll stay in--in that case, he'll have to resign in disgrace when he's indicted, like Ney, and DeLay and all the others.
posted by amberglow at 8:17 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen had 13K lead with 96.60%
posted by ed at 8:17 PM on November 7, 2006

My latest round of "Fo' Real? / Faux Real" numbers yields ...

Allen: 1,123,273
Webb: 1,120,272
posted by Alt F4 at 8:17 PM on November 7, 2006

read: those aren't real numbers.
posted by Alt F4 at 8:18 PM on November 7, 2006

but the math behind them is solid.
posted by Alt F4 at 8:18 PM on November 7, 2006

Nick Lampson wins in TX (DeLay's seat).

More good news.
posted by bardic at 8:19 PM on November 7, 2006

whip, maryland is not looking rosy either.
posted by spiderwire at 8:19 PM on November 7, 2006

Nice, Midtacular is live, without a tape dealy.
Jon Stewart: "Elephant shitting on a persons head."
posted by cosmonaught at 8:20 PM on November 7, 2006

er, tape delay. Though I guess that would qualify as a tape dealy, too.
posted by cosmonaught at 8:20 PM on November 7, 2006

hasn't MD already been called..? OR have the numbers changed since then...?
posted by WhipSmart at 8:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Rather is cute with Stewart : >
posted by amberglow at 8:21 PM on November 7, 2006

my battery is out. right now the betting lines say D win in montana, but losses in maryland, missouri, and virginia.


i'm tired of this happening every single election, btw. i want a friggin' mandate already. the house is not enough.
posted by spiderwire at 8:21 PM on November 7, 2006

maryland was called but apparently the washington post and one or two other places have pulled it since. they're half done, R lead, and the gap is not closing fast enough.
posted by spiderwire at 8:22 PM on November 7, 2006

G F Allen Republican 1,112,116 49.57%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,104,413 49.23%
Precincts Reporting: 2375 of 2443 (97.22%)
posted by HyperBlue at 8:23 PM on November 7, 2006

The DCCC is reporting 15 pickups for the Democrats in the House, zero for the Republicans. The Democrats now have a majority in the House.

Here's to sanity in American politics!
posted by russilwvong at 8:23 PM on November 7, 2006

~8k votes seperate with 2.8% left to vote in VA
posted by edgeways at 8:24 PM on November 7, 2006

Christ. Not MD please.
posted by bardic at 8:24 PM on November 7, 2006

local non-national WA ST result earlies running against Ds. As heard on Seattle NPR affilate KUOW, y on property reimbursement, n on legislated mass-transit spending on renewables, etc. CNN calls Cantwell (D) winner, a likely outcome, but current results place McGavick (R) in the lead. Hmm.
posted by mwhybark at 8:24 PM on November 7, 2006

hear hear for the majority. that's something. the governorships will help a lot in 08.

maryland could still well go dem, but calling it was premature. it happens at least once every election...
posted by spiderwire at 8:25 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb seems to be closing the gap: as of 11:24 he's within 7K.

G F Allen Republican 1,112,169 49.55%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,105,270 49.24%
G G Parker Independent Green 24,813 1.11%
Write Ins 2,223 0.10%
posted by GrammarMoses at 8:25 PM on November 7, 2006

I dunno, Alt-F4. When Richmond finishes reporting, I estimate another 5k gap-closing for Webb. There are still 73 pro-Webb pcts. left to report (5 pro-Allen). Average "pro" is 65-35, average pct. size is about 1000 people. That's 73-5 = 67 x 1,000 x 65% - 67,000 x 35%, which is about 20k votes to Webb. My math is probably really off.

It's certainly fun to watch, though.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:26 PM on November 7, 2006

BTW my "fuzzy VA math" from earlier included one too many Guinness, healthy bias, and a misplaced decimal point in the scribbled calculation. The math behind it was ........ fuzzy. (stick with AltF4)
posted by HyperBlue at 8:26 PM on November 7, 2006

Okay:

Nevada: Ensign (R) over Carter (D) 53 to 43%. That's with four jurisdictions reporting.

Montana: No results available online.

Arizona: Kyl (R) leading Pederson (D) 52.7% to 44.1%. Kyl's got it.

Missouri: Talent (R) currently ahead of McCaskill (D) 51.1% to 45.3%. Talent's got it.

So I'm thinking we have no chance of getting the Senate without Webb.
posted by ed at 8:26 PM on November 7, 2006

Er, yeah, I don't know what I was thinking up there. Forget that.

I'll just stick to what I said before.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:27 PM on November 7, 2006

*i was wrong about the betting line on maryland, but not the numbers. let's hope i didn't jinx it.
posted by spiderwire at 8:27 PM on November 7, 2006

The gap is finally starting to close in MO. Talent leads by 1%, with 51% reporting (and most of KC and St. Louis still out).
posted by cosmonaught at 8:28 PM on November 7, 2006

Or not.

7k separating them. (Richmond City is coming in!)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:28 PM on November 7, 2006

It looks like VA could be a 0.2% race... narrow enough that the recount will have a real chance of changing things.
posted by gsteff at 8:28 PM on November 7, 2006

Gap in VA has narrowed to 5K as of 11:28 PM.
posted by armage at 8:28 PM on November 7, 2006

VA within 7000 5000. That's some major macaca.

Lamont conceded. There are Kossacks standing on precipices everywhere, it's madness.
posted by dhartung at 8:29 PM on November 7, 2006

MT from CNN with 2% reporting:

Democrat Tester
21,210 53%

Republican Burns
(Incumbent)
17,821 45%

Libertarian Jones
866 2%
posted by HyperBlue at 8:29 PM on November 7, 2006

67 Webb pcts. vs. 5 Allen pcts. remaining, with 7k votes splitting them.

OK, I'm flip-flopping again. I call this for Webb.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:29 PM on November 7, 2006

Well, to be my cynical self yet again, at the very least Webb and Allen will probably go to an official recount. Because what Bush and the Republicans are itching to do now that they've lost the House is go out tomorrow and say, look, we still have a mandate. You didn't vote out the House. I'm still POTUS.

Another legal fiasco/recount will at least distract that meme from occuring while Pelosi and crew put what looks like a pretty good 60-day plan into effect (minimum wage, to name one example).

Keep fighting Jim.
posted by bardic at 8:29 PM on November 7, 2006

Missouri: Talent (R) currently ahead of McCaskill (D) 51.1% to 45.3%. Talent's got it.
posted by ed at 10:26 PM CST on November 7

Ed, way to many big (Dem) counties out to call that, and the gap is closing (if it hasn't already completely closed).
posted by cosmonaught at 8:29 PM on November 7, 2006

G F Allen Republican 1,113,013 49.50%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,108,291 49.29%
Precincts Reporting: 2380 of 2443 (97.42%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,681 Total Voting: 2,248,377 Voter Turnout: 49.35 %
posted by HyperBlue at 8:32 PM on November 7, 2006

Looks like CNN messed up-- back down to a 6% lead for Talent in MO, with 49% reporting, which mashes the official returns.
posted by cosmonaught at 8:32 PM on November 7, 2006

less than 5k votes with 2.6% left to vote. Still can go either. Late momentium is slowly favoring Webb, dunno if that will continue
posted by edgeways at 8:32 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm still concerned about Prince William; still over half of precincts have not reported. But they're split with the edge to Webb, so it may go to him.
posted by armage at 8:33 PM on November 7, 2006

edgeways, of the precincts that haven't responded, 58 of them are in counties that are favoring Webb currently, versus 5 that favor Allen. With each pct that comes in, the gap is going to narrow. Unfortunately, the differences in % between Webb/Allen in most of the remaining pcts are pretty close, (with the exception of Richmond and Fairfax) so it isn't going to narrow very quickly.

Cross your fingers.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:35 PM on November 7, 2006

er, make that Arlington, not Fairfax.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:36 PM on November 7, 2006

The cleansing effects of investigations
posted by homunculus at 8:37 PM on November 7, 2006

NWCN projects Cantwell (D) wins second senate term in Washington.

Washington 8th congressional is tight:
Darcy Burner (D) 21,620 50.2%
Dave Reichert* (R) 21,421
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 8:39 PM on November 7, 2006

Arlington is basically done, I think; 98% of precincts have reported in. That last precinct might mean another 800-900 votes for Webb, however.

Richmond and Prince William are the big question marks.
posted by armage at 8:40 PM on November 7, 2006

Cantwell called for Wa, no big surprise
posted by edgeways at 8:40 PM on November 7, 2006

"A Cataclysmic Fight to the Death"
posted by homunculus at 8:40 PM on November 7, 2006

Okay. My latest projection:

Allen: 1,144,469 (49.9954%)
Webb: 1,145,090 (50.0129%)
posted by Alt F4 at 8:42 PM on November 7, 2006

Precincts Reporting: 2386 of 2443 (97.67%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,253,907 Voter Turnout: 49.47 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,114,969 49.47%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,111,806 49.33%
posted by HyperBlue at 8:48 PM on November 7, 2006

y'know, the whole Webb / Greens / Nader thing is interesting. If I had to decide between Webb and Allen, I would pick Webb, but his Reagan heritage and so forth make it clear to me that he does not share my values.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but somehow I imagine Webb would be rather more disciplined in prosecuting that philosophy that I would, or than I would wish.

I did move to Seattle as a best-fit attempt to mesh with American political values, it should be noted.
posted by mwhybark at 8:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Richmond isn't a question mark. It's 75% Webb. Prince William is about 55/45. If each pct represents 1000 people (average), and there are currently 61 pcts left to report, that's 61k votes left. Even if you ignored Richmond and used the 55/45 percentages, that's still 6100 votes to close the gap (33550 - 27450).
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:49 PM on November 7, 2006

Wow. C'mon Jim, put this bigot to bed for the rest of his days.
posted by bardic at 8:49 PM on November 7, 2006

MO
Precincts Reporting 1956 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 560,257 51.3%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 492,888 45.1%
posted by HyperBlue at 8:50 PM on November 7, 2006

More pcts reporting, now the gap's down to 3k.

52 Webb pcts. left vs. 5 Allen.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:50 PM on November 7, 2006

A new tick in MO
Precincts Reporting 2079 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 578,902 50.7%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 522,587 45.8%
posted by HyperBlue at 8:52 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm cautiously optimistic that C-Ds on the right track. With this margin the absentee ballots might be a real factor tho.
posted by edgeways at 8:52 PM on November 7, 2006

With 96% of precincts reporting, the closely-watched race for Mecklenburg County Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor can be, I believe, safely called--it's Autry and Newman for the two available seats. I can go to bed now.
posted by MrMoonPie at 8:52 PM on November 7, 2006

My (newly adjusted) prediction: Webb will win by 2k.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:52 PM on November 7, 2006

The real story behind the election: The Colbert Sweep.
posted by drezdn at 8:53 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN is reporting a 3k lead for Webb. Are their numbers more reliable than vipnet.org? They seem fucky.
posted by granted at 8:54 PM on November 7, 2006

I'll take back all the nasty things about VA I've ever said if you guys in the Commonwealth can get this done! Please!

And yeah, Webb's hardly a liberal, but he is something lacking from so many Republicans these days -- sane.
posted by bardic at 8:54 PM on November 7, 2006

*breathes into paper bag*
posted by granted at 8:54 PM on November 7, 2006

woohoo Autry!
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2006

Congrats MrMoonPie!
posted by bardic at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2006

With this margin the absentee ballots might be a real factor tho.

I hope so, mine's among them! :-D
posted by armage at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2006

Dems did pick up an unexpected house seat in Kansas. CNN is calling Boyda over the incumbent Ryun. I think that makes 20?
posted by cosmonaught at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2006

Granted: I don't know where they're getting their numbers from. Liberal sources, I'm sure. :)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Less than 2000 now!
posted by thirteenkiller at 8:56 PM on November 7, 2006

absentee ballots tend to swing Republican... let's hope it doesn't come to that...
posted by WhipSmart at 8:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Less than 2k separating them now...
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:57 PM on November 7, 2006

DAMN, 1.8K votes and 1% left to count
posted by edgeways at 8:57 PM on November 7, 2006

It's now 99.1%, and they're separated by 0.07%. Everyone can relax for awhile, because no matter what, we aren't going to know the outcome until after the recount.
posted by gsteff at 8:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Oh, shit. Damn.

Only 22 pcts. left. Crap.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:58 PM on November 7, 2006

that is .07% differance
posted by edgeways at 8:58 PM on November 7, 2006

Ahnald won. Not surprising. Word is that Angelides' campaign pretty much imploded.
posted by bardic at 8:59 PM on November 7, 2006

"That Democratic Majority has had a free ride for too long..!" - Stephen Colbert

Comedy gold...
posted by WhipSmart at 8:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Our majority is safe in the House at least. I don't think we're going to get 3 out of the remaining Senate seats : <
posted by amberglow at 8:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Drudge front page now reads: Here Come The Democrats.
posted by Effigy2000 at 8:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Wow. Never let it be said that your vote doesn't count.
posted by armage at 8:59 PM on November 7, 2006

If the averages continue, there's still a chance Webb will get 2100 more vote-narrowing votes, which would put him 300 above Allen. :)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 8:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Looks like the Ds have picked up 21 house seats so far
posted by edgeways at 9:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Precincts Reporting: 2421 of 2443 (99.10%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,305,173 Voter Turnout: 50.60 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,139,550 49.43%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,137,793 49.36%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,567 1.11%
Write Ins 2,263 0.10%
posted by HyperBlue at 9:01 PM on November 7, 2006

and so many evil f*cks are gone--Sherwood, Santorum, Harris...
posted by amberglow at 9:01 PM on November 7, 2006

absentee ballots tend to swing Republican...

Aren't those usually mostly from the military, and therefore historically Republican? With Webb running those absentee ballots could just as easily go Democratic...
posted by armage at 9:02 PM on November 7, 2006

Goddamned write-ins.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:02 PM on November 7, 2006

For the Virginians who voted for Parker, was it really fucking worth it?
posted by ed at 9:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Latest projection from me:

Allen: 1,151,465 (49.98%)
Webb: 1,152,306 (50.02%)
posted by Alt F4 at 9:03 PM on November 7, 2006

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO BELIEVE ANYMORE
posted by granted at 9:03 PM on November 7, 2006

My geeky House spreadsheet, which has been using CNN predictions, has the Dems picking up 19 seats, the Repubs picking up 0 seats, and 110 seats not yet called.

My own district (NJ-7) went for the incumbent Republican, which is not a surprise, but still disappointing. Most of the outstanding votes are in a highly Repub area, too, so no hope. At least it was closer than usual.

If I've learned nothing else tonight, I've learned a few new Excel formulas. My spreadsheet automatically turns the winner's party to red or blue as I type the R or D.

Oh God, I'm a geek . . .
posted by booksherpa at 9:03 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC has Webb ahead by over 2500
posted by WhipSmart at 9:04 PM on November 7, 2006

Need to take a breath. Whew.

House pickups are huge btw. And every seat matters (thank you Howard Dean).
posted by bardic at 9:04 PM on November 7, 2006

Josh Marshall: On Rep. John Sweeney's (R) defeat, remember, he was "Shut 'em Down" Sweeney during the 2000 Florida recount, the guy leading the 'Republican riot' in Miami-Dade.

Yay, another evil sob bites the dust.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:05 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC shows Webb up over Allen by about a single coat of paint. Still going to be a re-count, but good on him regardless.

On to Missouri!
posted by bardic at 9:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Can Missouri still be won?

(Montana's in the bag).
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 9:08 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN has it:


Democratic Webb
1,141,052 50%

Republican Allen
(Incumbent)
1,138,676 49%

Independent Grassroots Parker
25,512 1%
99% precincts reporting - Updated: 12:05 a.m. ET
posted by HyperBlue at 9:08 PM on November 7, 2006

WTF?
posted by HyperBlue at 9:08 PM on November 7, 2006

Missouri is definitely still open. Kansas City and St. Louis are not really in at all.
posted by cosmonaught at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC has it exactly backwars, as far as I can tell.
posted by The Bellman at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

I don't know about MSNBC's numbers. Where would they be getting them from?

Also, if anyone's paying attention to my numbers, the "vote" number is more accurate than the %. The % is just if the two were running against one another (no Parker, no write-ins).
posted by Alt F4 at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Looks like VA is headed for a recount, Montana goes Dem, TN goes Rep.

So MO?
posted by lackutrol at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Here's the link to the Missouri Board of Elections Senate race results page: http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/allresults.asp?eid=189
posted by armage at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Missouri can be won depending on the counties remaining to report... and don't forget, several places ran out of ballots, so I'm not sure we'll find out for sure the winner before the very early AM if at all tomorrow...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Commonwealth of VA has it:
Precincts Reporting: 2423 of 2443 (99.18%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,309,512 Voter Turnout: 50.70 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,141,753 49.44%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,139,885 49.36
posted by HyperBlue at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Kinda looks like MSNBC accidently flipped the names, that is not an accourate count
posted by edgeways at 9:09 PM on November 7, 2006

11,000's the magic number for VA. If the difference is less than this, the state automatically pays for a recount.

If it's over 11,000, you can still ask, but it's much harder to do.

God, this is insane. MSNBC reporting that lawyers are already showing up, D and R, to every county in VA.
posted by bardic at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2006

VA: Gentlemen, start your lawyers!
posted by amberglow at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2006

I think you're right, Bellman
posted by WhipSmart at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Yahoo! The Democrat Jason Altmire just won in my district and beat the female Santorum clone Melissa Hart. I spent all summer and fall making calls and knocking on doors for him and fourteen hours today working on GOTV for his campaign but never really thought that he had a chance.
posted by octothorpe at 9:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Also, the Montana Senate race results: http://sos.mt.gov/ELB/archives/2006/elections/general/ussenate/index.asp
posted by armage at 9:11 PM on November 7, 2006

I guess John Bolton is heading down to VA to shut down the recount if Webb wins. Because Republicans are totally consistent about these things.
posted by bardic at 9:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb-Allen. Jesus fuck, I can't take it ANYMORE!
posted by ed at 9:13 PM on November 7, 2006

TradeSports' betting line for GOP control of the Senate is narrowing drastically. Not sure what that means.
posted by EarBucket at 9:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Talking Points Memo Cafe has:
A-SEN Webb (D): 49.5% Allen (R): 49.4% 99%
posted by General Zubon at 9:13 PM on November 7, 2006

good job, octothorpe - thanks for your efforts - they paid off!
posted by madamjujujive at 9:14 PM on November 7, 2006

I think vipnet is the most accurate and it still has Allen up by 2K. Bloody Green voters screw themselves again.
posted by The Bellman at 9:15 PM on November 7, 2006

wonder where msnbc are getting their #'s they look right now, and have webb up about 2k, but are ahead of the state site
posted by edgeways at 9:15 PM on November 7, 2006

NPR is starting on the hanging chad and Harris jokes about the VA senate race.

This is far more depressing than amusing.
posted by QIbHom at 9:15 PM on November 7, 2006

Anybody notice that the South Dakota abortion ban, discussed here, is going down in flames?
posted by forrest at 9:15 PM on November 7, 2006

msnbc's numbers seem to jive with what cnn is reporting...
posted by cosmonaught at 9:16 PM on November 7, 2006

Raw Story: 99% counted: Webb edges Allen in VA Senate, 50-49%
posted by General Zubon at 9:17 PM on November 7, 2006

great news, forrest--but it would have gone down in the courts anyway.

very cool--octo!
posted by amberglow at 9:18 PM on November 7, 2006

Thank you, forrest. I needed that reminder. I can now resume my lefty snickering. At least until the next mood swing...
posted by QIbHom at 9:18 PM on November 7, 2006

This comes from the VA department of elections:

Allen 1,141,753
Webb 1,139,885

99.18%
posted by ed at 9:18 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC shows Webb up over Allen by about a single coat of paint. Still going to be a re-count, but good on him regardless.

True. This would limit screaming wingnuts to accusations of "librul vote fraud" rather than the spectre of disenfranchisement by "endless recounts" and "Hey Al, take it like a man!" namecalling.
posted by namespan at 9:18 PM on November 7, 2006

Hum de dum ...

waiting ...

here's my latest projection ...

Allen: 1,152,472 (49.985%)
Webb: 1,153,151 (50.015%)
posted by Alt F4 at 9:19 PM on November 7, 2006

Bloody Green voters screw themselves again.

see my comment here. Actually, we should be taking Parker out for a five-course meal and a lapdance.
posted by granted at 9:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Get ready for extraordinary shit from the lameduck session of the House.
posted by amberglow at 9:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Very interesting race, nail biting.
posted by edgeways at 9:20 PM on November 7, 2006

If there's anyone from Tennesse here...
What the hell's with all the independent candidates?
posted by papakwanz at 9:21 PM on November 7, 2006

hey F4, wanna do my taxes..?
posted by WhipSmart at 9:21 PM on November 7, 2006

How precisely is Webb taking the lead? Please elucidate.
posted by ed at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN has Webb by 2.5k, updated at 12:09 AM EST, and a higher number of total votes.

The Officially Unofficial numbers at Virginia Interactive have not changed in 22 minutes for me, though they are reported to have changed 14 minutes ago and still show Webb trailing by <2k votes.
posted by sequential at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Wow. Just wow.
posted by dejah420 at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2006

it sure ain't the libruls doing vote fraud in VA - wonder how many votes that cost? Wonder if anything will ever be done about that?
posted by madamjujujive at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2006

i think NBC's projection is optimistic--we won't end up with 31 new seats i don't think.
posted by amberglow at 9:22 PM on November 7, 2006

OK, final calculations:

Webb will cut the gap in half (900 votes), but will still be on the short side. Oh well...

Recount!
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:25 PM on November 7, 2006

Thank you Octothorpe!
posted by callmejay at 9:25 PM on November 7, 2006

Some more movement in MO:

Precincts Reporting 2446 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 698,051 50.1%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 646,359 46.4%
Gilmour, Frank LIB 35,243 2.5%
Lewis, Lydia PRG 13,091 .9%
posted by HyperBlue at 9:25 PM on November 7, 2006

I've just tried to call the Virginia Board of Elections. Anybody have a direct dial to the pollsters?
posted by ed at 9:25 PM on November 7, 2006

VA's site just updated, Webb is indeed ahead by just under 2k
posted by WhipSmart at 9:27 PM on November 7, 2006

ed, are you using this contact info?

Virginia State Board of Elections
Suite 101, 200 North 9th Street, Richmond, Virginia 23219-3485
Telephone: [phone] Toll Free: 800 552-9745 FAX: [phone]
posted by armage at 9:27 PM on November 7, 2006

HOLY SMACK. Webb up 2k. Take that, calculations!
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:27 PM on November 7, 2006

Holy crispy crap.... What a turn around!
posted by The Bellman at 9:28 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb has officially pulled ahead!

Webb 1,148,750
Allen 1,146,952

99.26% reporting!
posted by ed at 9:28 PM on November 7, 2006

HOORAY!!!!
posted by granted at 9:28 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb made up a 4K vote swing with only .8% of new precincts reporting...

F4, you're looking more and more like a genius...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:28 PM on November 7, 2006

Well, I'll be damned. Like I said, Prince William County was a question mark.
posted by armage at 9:28 PM on November 7, 2006

sorry, make that .08%... from 99.18 to 99.26
posted by WhipSmart at 9:29 PM on November 7, 2006

*exhales*

*faints*
posted by granted at 9:29 PM on November 7, 2006

ed -

Webb hasn't yet taken the lead. And he still might not. My projections have him taking the lead based on the fact that the precincts that haven't yet reported are in counties that are, more than not, voting in Webb's favor.
posted by Alt F4 at 9:29 PM on November 7, 2006

Additionally, 4 of the remaining 18 pcts are in Richmond City, which favors Webb 4 to 1.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:30 PM on November 7, 2006

The Death Blow--...Haggard was the last blow. Look, it's an insult to people, educated people, to tell them that God says being gay is a sin, and then found to be going to a rentboy. It's too much to deal with on top of Foley and Dobson's brain dead stupid defense of Foley. You don't think fundies know about sexual harassment? Please.
This isn't just a crack in the GOP strategy, it's a fucking flood. Bush was getting 70-80 percent of fundie votes before. The fact that one third said fuck it, presages something else, moderates may have defected in even larger numbers. This is a nightmare for the GOP and even worse for Bush specifically. ...
posted by amberglow at 9:30 PM on November 7, 2006

Ha! I'm on dialup, so I didn't see that new swing until I had posted that last comment.
posted by Alt F4 at 9:31 PM on November 7, 2006

what a nail biter, yikes.
posted by madamjujujive at 9:31 PM on November 7, 2006

There is something else that I haven't noticed anyone else talking about. I don't know what the national voter turnout rate will end up being, but in VA, it looks to be less than 53% when all is said and done.

What about that race couldn't get 47% of voters to the polls..? It boggles the mind...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:31 PM on November 7, 2006

Alt-F4: I'm very well aware of this. Of course, irrespective of tonight's results, I'm sure Webb and Allen's attorneys will challenge this. It's just too damn close.

Yes, I tried the numbers on the site.

I'm not going to bed until we hit close to 100% on this.
posted by ed at 9:31 PM on November 7, 2006

A new projection in a minute ...
posted by Alt F4 at 9:31 PM on November 7, 2006

they're going to do everything in their power to keep the Senate--is Webb ready?
posted by amberglow at 9:32 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm glad you guys are doing these projections because, although I am very interested and involved in the races, when it comes to math, I simply can't be arsed...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:33 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC lists Corker in TN as the 'Apparent Winner'
posted by WhipSmart at 9:34 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC calls TN for Corker.
posted by bardic at 9:35 PM on November 7, 2006

The problem are counties like James City County, where there are approx 1800 voters per precinct, versus counties like Halifax County, where there are only about 475 voters per. You have to try and weight the percentages to population numbers.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen speaking on MNBC
posted by jaronson at 9:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen's speaking--is he conceding?
posted by amberglow at 9:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Latest projection from me:

Allen: 1,156,571 (49.917%)
Webb: 1,160,413 (50.083%)
posted by Alt F4 at 9:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Jeff Greenfield on CNN commented a few minutes ago about how the Green Party candidate's votes were almost certainly taken from Webb. Guess he's not reading this thread.

Allen speaking right now on CNN.
posted by booksherpa at 9:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Not sure how relevant it is, but according to this page, Katherine K. Hanley is the Secretary of the Commonwealth. A little further poking determines that she is a Democrat. Anyone have any idea how this is going to shake out?
posted by sequential at 9:36 PM on November 7, 2006

And Allen is giving a weird speech too. A "I embrace this recount" speech?
posted by bardic at 9:37 PM on November 7, 2006

What's Allen saying (no cable here)?
posted by Mid at 9:37 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen is stalling... he knows there will be a recount...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:37 PM on November 7, 2006

C_D -

My projections are weighted, by population.
posted by Alt F4 at 9:37 PM on November 7, 2006

MOre movement in MO:

Precincts Reporting 2600 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 734,028 49.9%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 686,700 46.7%
Gilmour, Frank LIB 36,401 2.5%
Lewis, Lydia PRG 13,585 .9%
posted by HyperBlue at 9:38 PM on November 7, 2006

Allen saying "still counting the votes"
posted by jaronson at 9:38 PM on November 7, 2006

And considering where MO and TN are headed, does VA really matter that much?
posted by Mid at 9:38 PM on November 7, 2006

He's sending people home for the night, because there's going to be a recount. Expects his people to act like "hawks" on the recount.

No POTUS for you, racist-boy.
posted by bardic at 9:38 PM on November 7, 2006

Here is the Independent Green Party's Wikipedia entry and the IGVA website (warning, awful embedded campaign song).
posted by armage at 9:39 PM on November 7, 2006

Alt-F4 -- Previous comment directed at WhipSmart, not you.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:39 PM on November 7, 2006

Tradesport's down to 40.0 for the GOP to retain the Senate. What's up with that? Isn't it pretty obvious they're going to do it at this point? Does someone know something I don't? Should I put some money into it at this point?
posted by EarBucket at 9:39 PM on November 7, 2006

To address Mid's point, do we still have a shot in Montana?
posted by ed at 9:40 PM on November 7, 2006

33000 votes left to count in Fairfax County VA
posted by HyperBlue at 9:40 PM on November 7, 2006

every seat matters---in 2 years another 1/3(?) of the Senate is up for re-election and if we only need 2 more seats instead of 3 or more, we're ahead.
posted by amberglow at 9:40 PM on November 7, 2006

By "hawk" he means "bird that attacks macacas."
posted by Mid at 9:40 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

What about that race couldn't get 47% of voters to the polls..? It boggles the mind...

Well, Webb and Allen both can come across as pompous asses.
posted by peeedro at 9:40 PM on November 7, 2006

33,000 uncounted votes in Fairfax, VA according to MSNBC.

This is as Democratic an area as it gets.

We actually might know who won this before the morning.

And considering where MO and TN are headed, does VA really matter that much?

Absolutely.
posted by bardic at 9:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Montana according to CNN (no direct link on the Department of Elections site):

30% precincts reporting

Tester: 54%
Burns: 44%

If we take Montana and Virginia, we have the Senate, assuming we lose MO and TN. If my inebriated calculations are correct, that is...
posted by ed at 9:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Oh, I forgot MT, but that still does not get us 6.
posted by Mid at 9:41 PM on November 7, 2006

yep, Civil_Disobedient, that's why I can't be arsed... I'm too right-brained. I can build you a computer, write you a song, paint you a picture and debate with the best of them, but I can't do math. I've learned to live with it... :)
posted by WhipSmart at 9:41 PM on November 7, 2006

And considering where MO and TN are headed, does VA really matter that much?

No, not really. It's just politi-geekery.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:41 PM on November 7, 2006

i think we got Tester in MT tho for sure, so that's good.
posted by amberglow at 9:41 PM on November 7, 2006

Don't feel too bad, WhipSmart. I can do math, and my numbers were all over the place. :)
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:43 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm thinking we gonna have a 50/50 in the Senate, at best.
posted by papakwanz at 9:43 PM on November 7, 2006

If we take Montana and Virginia, that puts us at 50/50. Not as good as a majority, but forcing Cheney to break ties all the time is far better than giving them a majority.
posted by EarBucket at 9:43 PM on November 7, 2006

we did good tonight : >
posted by amberglow at 9:43 PM on November 7, 2006

Joementum for the tie-breaker!
posted by Mid at 9:44 PM on November 7, 2006

maybe the stress of breaking ties will force Cheney to resign for health reasons... or maybe he'll just shoot somebody.
posted by WhipSmart at 9:44 PM on November 7, 2006

A stalemate's better than a minority.
posted by ed at 9:44 PM on November 7, 2006

And the river opens for the righteous.
posted by EarBucket at 9:45 PM on November 7, 2006

speaking of shooting people, did any of the networks air the Harris concession, if she had one..? I was sure there would be gun-play.
posted by WhipSmart at 9:45 PM on November 7, 2006

Got it.

Well, folks ... my bed is calling.

2425 of 2443 precincts are in for Virginia (99.26%).

Allen is currently at 1,146,952
Webb is currently at 1,148,750

[The percentages, of just the two of them, are ...
Allen (49.960%)
Webb (50.039%)]

Thanks for playing along. See you in the morning.
posted by Alt F4 at 9:45 PM on November 7, 2006

they're going to do everything in their power to keep the Senate--is Webb ready?

If we trust his publicity, sure.
posted by mwhybark at 9:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Did Mitchell on MSNBC just say that the absentee votes have already been counted in the VA Senate race..? That helps Webb, I'm sure...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Come on Missouri!

*hopes*
posted by jahmoon at 9:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Thanks for the hard work, Alt F4. I'm headed to bed myself over here in Arlington...

Good luck McCaskill!
posted by armage at 9:49 PM on November 7, 2006

I think people are underestimating the importance of a 50/50 Senate... it's a special situation. Cheney can break ties for the whole body, but not on committees, and every single committee will be split 50/50. That's enough for the democrats to be able to block whatever they'd like in committee. Pelosi will have a more functional majority in the House than McConnell will have in the Senate, so the House will be setting Congress's legislative agenda this term, reducing the importance of McConnell's control of the Senate schedule... in a 50/50 Senate, I expect the Dems to have the upper hand, despite Cheney.
posted by gsteff at 9:49 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

That is what I heard too WhipSmart.
posted by HyperBlue at 9:50 PM on November 7, 2006

MO is also close

Talent 748,489
McCaskill 703,243
posted by ed at 9:50 PM on November 7, 2006

Missouri is a dead heat now 48% to 48%
Montana is going Dem
Maryland is going Dem (some of the networks pulled their projection because Steele refuses to concede)
Virginia is looking Dem depending on the results of a likely recount

The Senate is not lost yet, people...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:50 PM on November 7, 2006

people are also assuming MO is over, which it isnt, unless I missed something.

Last I heard, the uncounted votes were largely from the Kanas City area and CNN was actually leaning towards giving it to the democrat.
posted by drjimmy11 at 9:51 PM on November 7, 2006

(oops two people beat me to it)
posted by drjimmy11 at 9:51 PM on November 7, 2006

MO is still a toss-up. MT is leaning Tester. Webb is ahead going into a recount, giving him a huge advantage (Allen didn't look pleased).

I'm sure Glenn Greenwald is googling quotations from prominent Republicans in 2000 calling Gore supporters shrill losers who want to overturn the will of the people.
posted by bardic at 9:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Can any number crunchers figure out the following counties in MO?

Clay
Douglas
Hickory
Jasper
Kansas City
Maries
Pemiscot
Polk
Ray
posted by ed at 9:52 PM on November 7, 2006

every morning after an election lately, i wake up to find out we lost stuff, so i'm not going to hope (except with MT). night....
posted by amberglow at 9:53 PM on November 7, 2006

There isn't a Kansas City county-- Kansas City is Jackson, Clay, and Platte. I voted in Clay... so that's at least one.
posted by cosmonaught at 9:54 PM on November 7, 2006

so... wait. IF there are 33000 votes to count in a heavy D area, is it reasonible to think we might get above the auto recount threashold? Becasue if this all lines up... heh... heh. heheheheh
posted by edgeways at 9:55 PM on November 7, 2006

McCaskill now ahead! 733,387 to 773,236!

Folks, this isn't over!
posted by ed at 9:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Unsubstantiated rumors courtesy of tradesports chat. Your mileage may vary.
posted by sequential at 9:56 PM on November 7, 2006

that's the hope, edgeways.. although I'm sure the Allen campaign will push for one anyway.
posted by WhipSmart at 9:57 PM on November 7, 2006

I think that a solid House/governor majority will be huge over the next two years, even if we don't win the Senate. In '08, the Dems may be able to add both the Senate and the White House. Assuming it splits even, a 50-50 Senate will make it harder for Bush to push through any fucknut Supreme Court Justices if Stevens (or anyone else) dies.

That is, assuming the Donkey starts fighting back instead of being the GOP's bitch as it has for the last few years.
posted by papakwanz at 9:57 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm feeling better about IN-9 now a few hours later now that Hill's lead has widened a bit.

Even taking the House is a big step forward because legislation must clear both chambers. In realistic terms, this means that a Republican-dominated Senate would have to compromise its legislative agenda, something that they've not needed to do since Clinton.

Both chambers would be better, but even one provides critical leverage.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 9:57 PM on November 7, 2006

I think that's backwards. The official unofficial has Talent with 773,000.
posted by cosmonaught at 9:57 PM on November 7, 2006

What a difference an hour makes. I got home at 11:30 and looked at the Allen-Webb and Cardin-Steele races and cursed. That's some turn around for both races.
posted by peeedro at 9:58 PM on November 7, 2006

Hehe. Scarborough and Buchanan are fellating each other as to how this isn't a "mandate" for Dems.

Well excuse-fucking-me. It was Bush II who brought a winner-takes-all attitude to Washington, and this is a bigger win percentage-wise than Bush's 51-49 in 2004.

This is a fucking mandate, so suck it Republicans.
posted by bardic at 9:58 PM on November 7, 2006

ed, I see that backwards... Talent with 773K and McCaskill with 733K
posted by WhipSmart at 9:59 PM on November 7, 2006

WhipSmart. Start Here Looks like about 50% of larger pop counties (which lean Dem) are still out. If the trend holds this is going to look alot like VA with a late surge by McCaskell.
posted by HyperBlue at 9:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Shays on NPR saying he doesn't care about the election, because he has to live with the soldiers he voted to send to Iraq coming back dead.

Interesting victory speech. Classy, though. Yes, he was wrong, and he gets a lot of credit from me for admitting it.
posted by QIbHom at 9:59 PM on November 7, 2006

Sorry, cosmonaught, that's 773,236 that Talent has. McCaskill ahead by 150 votes!
posted by ed at 10:00 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC has McCaskill way ahead by 14K, however...
posted by WhipSmart at 10:00 PM on November 7, 2006

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%

Holy fuck YES!!! YES!!
posted by Skygazer at 10:00 PM on November 7, 2006

If I were Talent, I wouldn't be comfortable with the lead he has and the counties that are outstanding...

That being said, what I have seen coming in from Jackson and St. Louis County isn't strong enough McKaskill to make me feel really comfortable on the other side.
posted by cosmonaught at 10:01 PM on November 7, 2006

WhipSmart: You're right. Things just shifted with 2800 precincts reporting.

Total figures:

Talent 773,326
McCaskill 733,387
posted by ed at 10:01 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN:
Democratic McCaskill
813,003 49%

Republican Talent
(Incumbent)
799,007 48%

Libertarian Gilmour
39,451 2%

Progressive Lewis
14,851 1%
posted by HyperBlue at 10:02 PM on November 7, 2006

OK, Kansas City news is now reporting McCaskill ahead 813,003 to 799,007 with 80% in.
posted by cosmonaught at 10:02 PM on November 7, 2006

that makes 2 sources!
posted by HyperBlue at 10:03 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Yeah, CNN is reporting McCaskill ahead....they are ahead of the MO election night reporting website.

This is still very much doable.
posted by ed at 10:03 PM on November 7, 2006

Holy crap. We might actually do this.
posted by EarBucket at 10:03 PM on November 7, 2006

tradesports jumped to a 50 SENATE.GOP.2006 based on numbers at 74% showing the MO race tied being reported as wrong and apparently retracted (somewhere). CNN now reporting 80% and has McCaskill ahead by 14k. And now tradesports is trading down to 33.5 on SENATE.GOP.2006. Moving quickly on speculation in both directions.
posted by sequential at 10:04 PM on November 7, 2006

The tide is rolling.......!
posted by HyperBlue at 10:04 PM on November 7, 2006

OMG! This is so crazy. Let's go McCaskill!
posted by jahmoon at 10:05 PM on November 7, 2006

Good, Jackson county went from 53% Dem to 64% with the latest returns, probably because it's urban votes that are taken longer to pull together and count. Hopefully we'll see the same in St. Louis County, and this will break wide open.

Recounts in Missouri can be requested (but aren't required) if there's less then a 1% difference.
posted by cosmonaught at 10:05 PM on November 7, 2006

Tester is still ahead in Montana

Tester 88,302
Burns 75,256

40% precincts
posted by ed at 10:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Returns from Kansas City and St. Louis are coming in huge for McCaskill. Awesome.
posted by bardic at 10:06 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm just a little surprised that Dick Mountjoy lost in California.
posted by papakwanz at 10:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Is the USA truly that evenly split between the two parties? It seems crazy, especially when it's happening in states that have almost nothing in common.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:07 PM on November 7, 2006

that tradesports site is pretty funny to watch at times... like hyperactive rabbits
posted by edgeways at 10:07 PM on November 7, 2006

So here's what it boils down to: if the Demos get Montana, Missouri and Virginia, they get 51 seats, according to CNN's projections.
posted by ed at 10:07 PM on November 7, 2006

Two major NSA surveillance apologists pay the price at the polls
posted by homunculus at 10:08 PM on November 7, 2006

FWIW this is starting to trend towards common sense too in MO:
Stem Cell Initiative
Yes 771,048 49.2%
No 795,558 50.8%
posted by HyperBlue at 10:08 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb on TV: "The votes are in and we won!"
posted by granted at 10:08 PM on November 7, 2006

We've been this evenly split for years... presidential elections break funny because of the electoral college, but the last two have really been dead heats.
posted by cosmonaught at 10:08 PM on November 7, 2006

Five Fresh Fish, it is more of a cultural split than a split between the parties. If you look at what they do, the Repubs and Dems historically weren't that different.

At least, not until the radical neo-cons took over the Republicans.
posted by QIbHom at 10:09 PM on November 7, 2006

I almost voted no on the stem cell initiative, because I didn't want to put a ban on cloning in the MO constitution.
posted by cosmonaught at 10:09 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb still ahead in Virginia.

Latest update (99.35%)

Webb 1,150,473
Allen 1,148,656
posted by ed at 10:09 PM on November 7, 2006

McCaskill's lead appears to be growing...
posted by jahmoon at 10:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Up to 217 in the House...
posted by you just lost the game at 10:12 PM on November 7, 2006

MOore in MO:

Precincts Reporting 3009 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 799,471 48.0%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 812,038 48.7%
Gilmour, Frank LIB 39,848 2.4%
Lewis, Lydia PRG 14,934 .9%
posted by HyperBlue at 10:13 PM on November 7, 2006

ed, I think many people have been saying that (regarding the Mo, Misso, and Va), not to toot my own horn, too much, but near the start of this (600+!) tread I said it'll come down to Va, who wins that, wins it all. If recounts hold then the Ds look like they win the Senate.
posted by edgeways at 10:13 PM on November 7, 2006

It's looking like the Dems are going to control the Senate.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 10:13 PM on November 7, 2006

Aright, Webb is certainly not on my page on a number of issues, but big props for him. He won this thing. He just went on national TV and said he won this thing, as he did according to the votes, no matter how slim the margin.

Dammit Democrats, take a page from this guy. There might still be a re-count, but embrace winning as both a goal and an ideology. Don't give your opponent an inch, ever. Allen is now the whiny, desperate re-count bitch, not Webb.

That was masterful. Masterful.
posted by bardic at 10:14 PM on November 7, 2006 [2 favorites]

you know, there is a real chance the Ds are going to win
posted by edgeways at 10:15 PM on November 7, 2006

I've got actual, honest-to-God tears here.
posted by EarBucket at 10:16 PM on November 7, 2006

VA

Precincts Reporting: 2430 of 2443 (99.47%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,331,793 Voter Turnout: 51.18 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,152,600 49.43%
G F Allen Republican 1,151,076 49.36%
posted by HyperBlue at 10:16 PM on November 7, 2006

If it pans out, I'm getting royally shit faced tomorrow night.
posted by edgeways at 10:17 PM on November 7, 2006

The Dems just officially took the House.
posted by Astro Zombie at 10:17 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN predictions in the House have the Dems up 24 seats with 47 races yet to be called. Of these, 34 are currently Repub seats, 13 Dem. The Dems should take the House pretty strongly.

Races still not called: AK-01, AR-03, CA-04, CA-11, CA-27, CA-29, CA-34, CA-36, CA-38, CA-39, CA-40, CA-43, CA-44, CA-45, CA-47, CA-50, CO-04, CO-07, CT-02, CT-04, GA-08, GA-12, HI-01, HI-02, IA-02, ID-01, ID-02, LA-02, MI-07, MI-08, MI-09, MI-11, NC-08, NE-01, NE-02, NE-03, NM-01, NV-02, NV-03, OH-02, OH-15, PA-08, TX-22, TX-23, WA-05, WA-08, WY-01.
posted by booksherpa at 10:19 PM on November 7, 2006

What a great night. While it may not fall on the national radar, Dallas County just swung *hugely* Dem.
posted by Ufez Jones at 10:19 PM on November 7, 2006

I don't know a lot about Harold Ford but, watching his concession speech, I hope he stays in politics.
posted by General Zubon at 10:20 PM on November 7, 2006

only 7 seats left to account for in the house, the absolute best the Rs are doing there is 206
posted by edgeways at 10:21 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb still ahead. 99.47% precincts.

Webb 1,152,600
Allen 1,151,076
posted by ed at 10:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Do any of the pundits talk about Katrina at all?
posted by muckster at 10:22 PM on November 7, 2006

Harold Ford Jr. = Class Act.
posted by stenseng at 10:23 PM on November 7, 2006

This is historic. Absolutely humiliating for Bush. He's going to spend the next two years vetoing and and refusing to cooperate with congressional investigations, while enacting as much policy as he can administratively. He may attack Iran just to make the Democrats look weak.
posted by gsteff at 10:23 PM on November 7, 2006

Fuck, we may have Montana too!

52% precincts.

Tester 52%
Burns 48%
posted by ed at 10:23 PM on November 7, 2006

I can't wait to hear the reactions from the right-wing talk loonies. Or at least reports of their reactions.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 10:25 PM on November 7, 2006

Muckster, I recall the talking heads on MSNBC hours ago mentioned Katrina as the first big seed to what happened to the Repubs tonight (but not in those words), if that's what you're asking.
posted by General Zubon at 10:25 PM on November 7, 2006

Montana, 81%

McCaskill 822,886
Talent 809,608
posted by ed at 10:26 PM on November 7, 2006

Er., MO.
posted by ed at 10:27 PM on November 7, 2006

Holy Crap. I know this isn't over, but this is better that my most optimistic projections. Hopefully if things pan out, this will put an end to the pessimism/cynicism that tainted the last few election results.

I think the tide has finally turned at least a little.
posted by Telf at 10:27 PM on November 7, 2006

We just picked up Tom Delay's old seat:

Lampson 72,263
Sekula Gibbs 52,813
Smither 8,405
posted by EarBucket at 10:28 PM on November 7, 2006

edgeways, where are you getting your results from?
posted by booksherpa at 10:29 PM on November 7, 2006

Harold Ford Jr. = Class Act.

No shit, met that guy years ago, used to see him around DC all the time. One word for him: Smoooooooooothe

He is very young and will be in this game for years to come. May be another President Ford one day.
posted by Pollomacho at 10:30 PM on November 7, 2006

Thirded re: Ford's concession speech.

Jesus, he's only 36. He'll be running for POTUS some day.

I feel honest-to-god proud to be an American right now. That hasn't happened in far too long.
posted by bardic at 10:30 PM on November 7, 2006

Goddamn. It feels like we torpedoed the Death Star just as it cleared the planet.
posted by EarBucket at 10:30 PM on November 7, 2006 [5 favorites]

Ford-Obama???
posted by jaronson at 10:33 PM on November 7, 2006

And JD Hayworth just got beat. That racist jock asshole got beat.

I need another drink. This is too sweet.
posted by bardic at 10:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Which ones booksherpa? The House? MSNBC has the current races at 199 R , 229 D which leaves 7 left
posted by edgeways at 10:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Wow, just wow. I had no idea Missouri would be this close. Montana is in the bag.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 10:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Just found a another link for Montana results:

Tester 97,402
Burns 82,165

A little behind CNN, but if things change, you have a source.
posted by ed at 10:33 PM on November 7, 2006

What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall at the White House and Karl Rove's house right about now...: )
posted by you just lost the game at 10:34 PM on November 7, 2006

Damn, I just lost the game again.
posted by HyperBlue at 10:35 PM on November 7, 2006

Also, well said, Bardic.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 10:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Stretching the lead in MO:
Precincts Reporting 3149 of 3746
Talent, Jim REP 834,744 47.7%
McCaskill, Claire DEM 858,109 49.0%
posted by HyperBlue at 10:36 PM on November 7, 2006

This is Yavin and Endor rolled into one EarBucket. And Darth Cheney's facial expression just tightened even further.

Enough Americans cared to take this country back, or at least take the first step.
posted by bardic at 10:36 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Rove and co. are working on a way to spin this in their favor. They'll deny that it was a vote against them. Or they'll throw up their hands and say, "I guess the terrorists won."
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 10:37 PM on November 7, 2006

It isn't all happy. Michigan has banned affirmative action, and I'm still waiting on two local library votes.

Never rule out the library votes. Those are our future...
posted by QIbHom at 10:39 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Ford's not so hot vis a vis the gay rights issue. It's too late to dig up the articles, but many of the GLBT folks in TN voted 3rd party rather than Ford, despite the closeness of the race
posted by edgeways at 10:39 PM on November 7, 2006

They're going to say this isn't about Bush and Iraq.

Right.
posted by bardic at 10:39 PM on November 7, 2006

edgeways: Yep, the House. Thanks. Looks like CNN is behind MSNBC on results. My Geeky Spreadsheet (tm) has the Dems up 26 with 33 seats left to call - 222 Dems, 180 Reps.
posted by booksherpa at 10:42 PM on November 7, 2006

I haven't felt this good after an election since November of 1992. It's the exact same combination of hope and relief that I felt after the end of the Reagan/Bush era.
posted by MegoSteve at 10:43 PM on November 7, 2006

One thing I bet the GOP will learn from this election. Find better ways to cover up their misconduct.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 10:44 PM on November 7, 2006

6 of the 7 same-sex marriage bans went through. :(
posted by granted at 10:45 PM on November 7, 2006

Surely, Edgewise, if a significant portion of Nashville's GLBT community voted 3rd party the several indies would have garnered more than 2300 votes combined. (see Davidson County)
posted by Pollomacho at 10:45 PM on November 7, 2006

i fell asleep between my last comment and this one. i was about ready to give up hope.

i just... buh... gah


WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOO
posted by spiderwire at 10:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb's up by about 5000 now!
posted by you just lost the game at 10:47 PM on November 7, 2006

Update again from Virginia's election site. At 1:46 AM:

Allen- 1,157,259 (49.30%)
Webb- 1,162,004 (49.50%)
99.59% Precincts Reporting
posted by peeedro at 10:49 PM on November 7, 2006

It looks like Arizona's marriage ban may still lose, though. 52% "no" according to CNN. It would be exciting to see one of those fuckers voted down.
posted by nebulawindphone at 10:49 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Josh Marshall:

No concessions. No retreat. No surrender.

There will be much more to say about this in the coming hours and days, but it's not a bad time, even as the Senate remains in the balance, to emphasize a point we have made here from time to time during this campaign.

The election marks a beginning more than an end. Savor the moment tonight. But there is much to be done and no time to linger. Plans must be implemented. More battles waged. Our opponents have been planning for this moment for many months. They are ready. We must be, too.

No matter what happens tomorrow, tonight I can sleep better than I have in a long time, and that means a lot. Sleep well, all.
posted by spiderwire at 10:50 PM on November 7, 2006

McCaskill's about to take the podium.
posted by bardic at 10:50 PM on November 7, 2006

You have a point Pollomacho, I was going on what I read at my mom's site a week or so back, so things may have changed. I know there where many people a little miffed at Ford at the time though.

Btw, Webb opened up close to a 5k lead
posted by edgeways at 10:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Damn you, HyperBlue! I just lost the game, too...
posted by WhipSmart at 10:52 PM on November 7, 2006

I want to be excited, but then I remember that besides still having to take the Senate, they have to get some balls and seriously go on the offensive to repair any of the damage. After this is over they may get the majority, but I'm just afraid they won't be able to do anything with it.
posted by -t at 10:53 PM on November 7, 2006

Montana should be called soon if things don't move differently.
posted by edgeways at 10:54 PM on November 7, 2006

My cable and Internet went out for nearly an hour... I was starting to get the shakes... I come back and McCaskill wins Missouri, Webb looks to have Virginia, Tester looks to have Montana... I missed all the good stuff...
posted by WhipSmart at 10:54 PM on November 7, 2006

McCaskill's making a victory speech.

This might go to a recount as well, but good. Take the initiative. Make the other side the recall whiners.

Awesome for her (and Michael J. Fox).
posted by bardic at 10:55 PM on November 7, 2006

It may have been mentioned already, and it is obvious, but I'd like to point out that the Dems, at this point have gained, depending on where you look, 25 seats in the house, while the Republicans have gained a big fat 0! So, the best they've done is held on to seats, but they've gained nothing. Anyone know the stats on previous elections. 25 and 0 seems like a good record.
posted by Sir BoBoMonkey Pooflinger Esquire III at 10:55 PM on November 7, 2006

if that 5k lead for Webb in VA can get up to 11k+, there won't be an automatic recount... Allen's campaign will whine until they get one, but it won't matter...
posted by WhipSmart at 10:55 PM on November 7, 2006

I know it's a bit early to call this, but I think this thread can beat the Haggard thread.
posted by homunculus at 10:55 PM on November 7, 2006

It's now an uphill battle to the White House in 2008. The Reps can now blame all problems on the Dems.
posted by Pollomacho at 10:55 PM on November 7, 2006

and now Webb's lead is 8k...

c'mon, c'mon, c'mon....
posted by WhipSmart at 10:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Looks like the Democratic incumbents are holding on in Georgia's 8th and 12th districts, too. I thought for sure we'd lose the 8th. Not that we couldn't live with that, but it sure would be sweet to pitch a shutout tonight.
posted by EarBucket at 10:57 PM on November 7, 2006

I know its significance pales in comparision to the larger story of the night, but it looks like Dave Loebsack (D) just ousted 16-term incumbent Jim Leach (R) in Iowa-2. Nobody expected Loebsack to win, and the race looked neck until they dredged up 14,000 miscounted absentee ballots in Iowa City, the State's democratic stronghold.

Nobody thought that Leach would go - he was popular even among dems. I figured the guy would be in office until he died.

Astounding.
posted by rockabilly_pete at 10:57 PM on November 7, 2006

Four of the remaining ten precincts in VA are in districts that are 50% better for Allen so far and are mostly absentee ballots. One of those precincts, however, is in Richmond City that broke 72% for Webb.
posted by sequential at 10:58 PM on November 7, 2006

I didn't do so bad after all with my "fuzzy VA math" upthread. My total votes were off, but my percentages were actually right on the money.
Webb: 49.5827%
Allen: 49.2028%

First time lately that optimism, alcohol, and cipherin worked out so interestingly.

Zippity Do-Da...........
posted by HyperBlue at 10:59 PM on November 7, 2006

I just did a quck conservative overview of the current results on the NYT House map, and while they officially project +25 for D, of the undecided districts I counted an additional +18 or so for D in the House, based on the numbers as displayed.

The Senate map is also clearly favoring D in MO and MT and showing Webb by a hairsbreadth in VA.
posted by mwhybark at 11:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Sir Bobo, I thought I heard on ABC that it has never (or rarely) happened that one side makes no gains. Usually, there's a trade off. I think that is a clear sign.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 11:00 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb takes an 8k lead with 9 precincts left.
posted by sequential at 11:00 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC just called MO for McCaskill
posted by rockabilly_pete at 11:03 PM on November 7, 2006

The Reps can now blame all problems on the Dems.

Not Iraq. And that is the issue.
posted by bardic at 11:04 PM on November 7, 2006

I want to be excited, but then I remember that besides still having to take the Senate, they have to get some balls and seriously go on the offensive to repair any of the damage. After this is over they may get the majority, but I'm just afraid they won't be able to do anything with it.

One last thing before I go to bed.

This is going on the offensive. No matter what happens tonight, even if the races swing back, this is a electoral tidal wave unparalleled in recent history. As just mentioned, this is no time to get complacent, but think about how long we've been waiting for this to happen. Think about the cold sweats Karl Rove's getting right about now.

Save the hand-wringing for tomorrow.

Tonight is a night to celebrate. Santorum is gone. Delay's seat is gone. Foley's seat is gone. Katherine Harris is gone. We have the House. WE. CLEANED. THEIR. CLOCKS.
posted by spiderwire at 11:05 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Damn, looks like Jean "Cowards cut and run" Schmidt won by a couple thousand in Ohio....
posted by you just lost the game at 11:05 PM on November 7, 2006

The NY Times is now showing Webb 1,143,756, Allen 1,141,030 with "100% reporting." Are they rounding up, or is the initial count finished?
posted by nebulawindphone at 11:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Watching all the different coverage on the big 3 cable news outlets and online, I have to say that tonite Keith Olbermann really shined... I liked him to begin with (I have since the ol' ESPN days) but I he always seemed to be not much more than a one-trick pony - editorializing among painstakingly prepared segments - but he has really been the highlight of MSNBC's coverage and has lifted my view of him as a journalist.

Of course, I would look like Murrow next to Chris Matthews, but hey...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:06 PM on November 7, 2006

Mizzo Stem Cell Initiative
Yes 899,998 50.3%
No 888,424 49.7%
posted by HyperBlue at 11:06 PM on November 7, 2006

"You can imagine a world in which these extremists and radicals got control of energy resources," he [Bush] said at a rally here Saturday for Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.). "And then you can imagine them saying, 'We're going to pull a bunch of oil off the market to run your price of oil up unless you do the following. And the following would be along the lines of, well, 'Retreat and let us continue to expand our dark vision.'

Jesus, is she still in the lead after this endorsement?
posted by maryh at 11:08 PM on November 7, 2006

Matthews is getting all indignant about Webb and Talent now waiting for concession calls from Allen and Talent.

Fuck that noise. After 2000, the Republicans proved that lawyers can win you elections. And you gain momentum by claming victory even if you aren't 100% certain.

Of course, when Republicans do it Matthews is just so darned impressed with their acumen. When Dems do it, they're so uncouth, so lacking grace.

But it looks like Webb and McCaskill are going to win with decent margins.

And that's a goddamn mandate any way you cut it.
posted by bardic at 11:09 PM on November 7, 2006

The most recent posting on Talking Points Memo makes me feel cautiously optimistic about the Virginia race. Ripping it off here, but:

The Republicans have backed themselves into a corner in Virginia. If you're going to go to the mat with dirty tricks and voter suppression, your counting on staying under the rader and that once the election is over, folks will move on. If Allen contests the results of the election it changes the election from a single day event into a 3 or 4 week event, plenty of time to chase down those callerid numbers and phone bank contractors. Virginia isn't Ohio. It doesn't have Ken Blackwell to cover up the GOP shenanigans, and the state has already requested the FBI to look into them. The Allen campaign is going to have to make the choice of whether contesting the results is worth the chance of exposing criminal activity.

posted by barnacles at 11:09 PM on November 7, 2006

NPR is calling for McCaskill now, too.

This Andrea whoever really needs to go back to college radio. She's dreadful.
posted by QIbHom at 11:09 PM on November 7, 2006

nebulawindphone: CNN has Webb up 6k at 1,151,230 with 99% reporting, so i think NYtimes is off...
posted by Freen at 11:10 PM on November 7, 2006

Talent concedes in Missouri...

That leaves two states, Montana and Virginia.

Montana looks clean for Tester, and Webb looks like he may very well win in Virginia, pending a recount...

House and the Senate, folks... House and the Senate...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:10 PM on November 7, 2006

The Reps can now blame all problems on the Dems.

That just doesn't make sense. "mindless optimism" is a fairly common phrase, but sometimes it amazing how much people get off on mindless pessimism.
posted by drjimmy11 at 11:11 PM on November 7, 2006

The NY Times is now showing Webb 1,143,756, Allen 1,141,030 with "100% reporting." Are they rounding up, or is the initial count finished?

Look here: http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/
posted by peeedro at 11:11 PM on November 7, 2006

Never mind, the VA site still shows them waiting for seven precincts.

Those bastards at the Times... them and their integers....
posted by nebulawindphone at 11:11 PM on November 7, 2006

This is the 1:01 am entry on the Comedy Central Daily Show Indecision Blog so I'm not sure what to make of it (though it's not all comedy on the blog) :

Bill Kristol is apparently on Fox News right now predicting that Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfield will be stepping down.

"I think Rumsfeld will step down... I think Bush's statement tomorrow will be very important, much more so than usual post-election statement." - Bill Kristol on Fox News

I'm not holding my breath but tomorrow could be a doubly interesting day.
posted by General Zubon at 11:13 PM on November 7, 2006

That's a great point, barnacles... and one wonders if the Allen camp is smart enough to make the same conclusion...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:13 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN Calls Missouri for McCaskill!!!!!!
posted by Freen at 11:14 PM on November 7, 2006

And CNN finally called for McCaskell.
posted by QIbHom at 11:15 PM on November 7, 2006

Of course he's stepping down... He would be a lightning rod for the Democratically controlled Congress and a distraction for the Bush administration. The appalling thing is that Kristol, of all people, makes it seems like no big deal...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:15 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN has Webb up by 11,744 - No Recount!

Woo, goddamn, woo.
posted by metaculpa at 11:16 PM on November 7, 2006

I'm really pleased that Brian Williams just mentioned robo-calling on MSNBC. So many factors to consider in this election, but I wonder if that backfired enough to throw more votes to Democrats.
posted by MegoSteve at 11:17 PM on November 7, 2006

From MSNBC, Webb over Allen by almost 12k:

Jim Webb (DEM) 1,167,694 50%
George Allen (REP)* 1,155,950 49%
99% of precincts reporting
posted by aberrant at 11:17 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN has Webb up by 11,744 votes in VA.

Does this exceed the margin for an automatic recall?
posted by rockabilly_pete at 11:17 PM on November 7, 2006

Oh frabjous day.

The Allen campaign is going to have to make the choice of whether contesting the results is worth the chance of exposing criminal activity.

Um, whether or not Allen contests the results should have nothing to do with whether or not there's an investigation into possible criminal activity by Allen supporters during the final days of the election.
posted by mediareport at 11:18 PM on November 7, 2006

Only 4 seats left to go in the house, at best the Rs got 203 to the Ds 232 so there is a pickup of at least 30 seats
posted by edgeways at 11:19 PM on November 7, 2006

now=not
posted by bardic at 11:19 PM on November 7, 2006

Can't believe I'm going to say this, but I cannot wait to listen to Limbaugh and O'Reilly and Beck et al on the radio tomorrow. I'm betting there's a lot of dead air and sighing... maybe some sobbing...

Should be fun.
posted by WhipSmart at 11:19 PM on November 7, 2006

OK, Rumsfeld will step down ... Bush will appoint Leiberman to the post be "partisan" and then the Gov in CT can appt a republican replacement in the Senate.
posted by madamjujujive at 11:19 PM on November 7, 2006

Yes rockabilly, i think the magic number is 11k
posted by edgeways at 11:20 PM on November 7, 2006

The official unofficial results are reporting Webb ahead by 7,814:

• Webb: 1,167,053
• Allen: 1,159,238

CNN is reporting slightly different numbers, with Webb up by 11,744:

• Webb: 1,167,694
• Allen: 1,155,950

, but those don't exactly jibe.
posted by sequential at 11:20 PM on November 7, 2006

This was great fun!
Thanks Comrades!!!!

TEH TERRIST HAV WUN!!!11!

Good Night & Good Luck
[fallsoutofchair]
posted by HyperBlue at 11:20 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN is reporting that Talent has conceded!
posted by EarBucket at 11:20 PM on November 7, 2006

Webb claaims victory! Who can make George Felix Allen's name sound like "sore loser"?
posted by ibmcginty at 11:21 PM on November 7, 2006

interesting thought, madamjujujive
posted by WhipSmart at 11:21 PM on November 7, 2006

WhipSmart, I predict accusasions of Democratic hacking, insinuations (especially from Limbaugh) that the terrorists will now be able to attack the US at will (and, if they don't, that just proves that the Dems and Bin Laden are in bed together [and possibly married]) and other textbook examples of sore loosership.
posted by QIbHom at 11:22 PM on November 7, 2006

As a Canadian: Well done, you guys, well done. This is the first time in six years that I've felt that some degree of sanity might return to American government, and right now I'm so happy I'm just sitting here grinning. I know tomorrow things will be different, but for right now, I'm just going to savour this. Forgive me my giddiness. You kicked ass.

And thank you.
posted by jokeefe at 11:22 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

And this makes Allen all the more loathsome. I won't hold my breath waiting for Matthews to state that it was so unclassy of Allen to go to bed without conceding a race he'd lost.

Bill Kristol Lol.
posted by bardic at 11:23 PM on November 7, 2006

man oh man, item one tomorrow. Call for impeachment
posted by edgeways at 11:23 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Hrm, must be near my bed time. My mouse is low on batteries, I'm adding comma space before sentence fragments, and the Democrats could win both chambers of Congress.
posted by sequential at 11:23 PM on November 7, 2006

I'd like to thank Hurricane Katrina, Mark Foley and Michael J. Fox for making this all possible.
posted by MegoSteve at 11:24 PM on November 7, 2006

madamjujujive: That is a truly frightening concept.

Liberman will become THE democratic pariah.
posted by Freen at 11:24 PM on November 7, 2006

Another Canadian here. Congratulations and thank you. This gives me hope that the most influential nation on the planet is heading, politically, back in a sane direction.

I urge you to write to your Democrat representatives in the Senate and the House warning them to keep their noses clean. You've won by a thin margin, and the conservative media will be itching to report on the tiniest bit of dirt. And we all want to see a Democrat in the White House in 2008.
posted by solid-one-love at 11:26 PM on November 7, 2006

Lieberman's not the democratic pariah now? Madamjujujive's prediction doesn't seem entirely off-base, unfortunately.
posted by barnacles at 11:27 PM on November 7, 2006

ok, Raw Story is saying that the Virginia Senate votes have stopped being counted until tomorrow... that can't be right, can it..? Surely they won't stop counting with only .37% of votes left just because it's getting late...

This, of course, gives the Republicans time to fudge the numbers...

/hopeless cynic
posted by WhipSmart at 11:28 PM on November 7, 2006

I can see Bush announcing Rummy's resignation tomorrow in order to bring the focus back on him "listening to what the people want." That we gotta do something about this situation in Iraq. He'd never appoint Lieberman, however.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 11:28 PM on November 7, 2006

solid-one-love: This is most emphatically not a thin margin.

Should webb prevail, and I beleive he will, this is unprecedented.
posted by Freen at 11:29 PM on November 7, 2006

Could madamjujujive's prediction happen? Does the CT gov have the power to replace a resigning Senator with anyone, even someone of a different party then the person being replaced?

(Like strangeleftydoublethink I doubt Lieberman would get Rummy's job as Cheney et al would strive to keep it in the family ... but am curious if the CT gov has this power)
posted by General Zubon at 11:30 PM on November 7, 2006

Tester's lead in Montana is slipping a bit... makes me nervous...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:31 PM on November 7, 2006

Montana's got to go soon I think
posted by edgeways at 11:31 PM on November 7, 2006

talent has conceded victory to McCaskill
posted by Freen at 11:32 PM on November 7, 2006

CNN has Webb up by 11,744 votes in VA.
Does this exceed the margin for an automatic recall?

From the Agonist: How Do Recounts Work in Virginia?

"Only losing candidate can ask for a recount, and only if margin is 1% or less of votes cast for those two candidates."

If that means 1% or less of *total* votes cast for the two candidates in question, then Webb needs to win by over 23,000 to remove the option of a recount from Allen. The official state count currently has him ~8,000 votes ahead, so he's not there yet.
posted by mediareport at 11:32 PM on November 7, 2006

8 Districts left to count in VA, and so far

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,169,373 49.56%
G F Allen Republican 1,161,739 49.24%
posted by aberrant at 11:32 PM on November 7, 2006

General Zubon, yes. That's how things work. If a Senator leaves his or her seat during their term, the governor of the state appoints a replacement until the next election cycle or until a special election can be set up.
posted by WhipSmart at 11:33 PM on November 7, 2006

When a senator resigns, the gov replaces them. Doesn't matter what party.

Come on, senators weren't even elected directly back in the old days. This is basic HS civics.
posted by QIbHom at 11:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Yeah, Allen's gonna have the option.
posted by mediareport at 11:33 PM on November 7, 2006

Also, strangeleftydoublethink, Rummy's resignation will be just that, not Bush listening to people for a change. Bush said less then a week ago the Sec would be kept on and our Pres is not known for admitting he was wrong. However, it's probably accepted he needs to go and if it happens tomorrow then the timing could be a twisted plot to steal the Dems thunder (but to me it just will add to it).
posted by General Zubon at 11:34 PM on November 7, 2006

solid-one-love: This is most emphatically not a thin margin.

A probable win in the Senate by one seat isn't a thin margin? What's thin, then? 50 seats each and the faint hope that a different Republic will be too sick to come in every day?
posted by solid-one-love at 11:34 PM on November 7, 2006

Now we have to take back the media. Olbermann and blogs are a good start, but we have a lot of work to do.

And election reform - mandatory 10 year jail terms for interfereing with elections.

I am so psyched. For the last 5 months, I sent $25 every other week to tight races all over the country - 10 small donations that meant I had to cut back on luxuries and discretionary spending here and there. Nine out of my ten candidates won tonight. What an investment!

Nice sharing this night with y'all - awesome work on the part of Alt F4 wish she could have stayed up to see how things are turnin gout!
posted by madamjujujive at 11:35 PM on November 7, 2006

You know, to hell with the Democrats, too, and it's about goddamn time you wacky yank bastards did something right, but: good on 'ya. This is a happy day.

There's finally hope that we'll see some of those criminals you elected last time behind bars, and slightly less egregious criminals making the decisions that effect the rest of us around the world (who don't get a vote) as much as they do you.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

An Aussie here, and I gotta say, never before have I been so captivated by another country's elections. This is quite exciting stuff, you yanks are allllllriiighhht.
posted by Serial Killer Slumber Party at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

madamejujujive is on target as usual.
posted by bardic at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

this is unprecedented.

Except for the times it's happened before!
posted by Pollomacho at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

BUT, Allen would pay for it: VA has no automatic recounts.

* Only losing candidate can ask for a recount, and only if margin is 1% or less of votes cast for those two candidates.
* If margin is .5% or less, OR, and/or if candidate who requests recount wins, the counties and cities involved in the recount pay the costs.
* Otherwise, the candidate who requested the recount has to pay the costs [emphasis mine]
posted by HyperBlue at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

but Allen would have to pay for the recount unless it is less than .5% and the requesting candidate wins. Otherwise, Allen would have to pay for the recount. That is a bit of a deterrent against frivolous requests to count the votes...

So the 11K plus total still holds sway...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Sorry, I slept through that day in HS Civics. Thanks for the clarification.
posted by General Zubon at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

Yes, Bush has to do something tomorrow to redirect attention, and I doubt he's going to pull bin Laden out of his ass.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 11:36 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC is saying that the Montana gov. is getting ready to call the Senate race.
posted by rockabilly_pete at 11:37 PM on November 7, 2006

sldoublethink, Bush will circle the wagons. He is incapable of conceding error. He will not fire Rumsfeld tomorrow.
posted by ibmcginty at 11:37 PM on November 7, 2006

ok, I have to call it a nite, kids... I'll still be watching the tube but I'm stepping away for the computer for the evening (morning?)

Aww, who am I kidding..? I'll be back here posting in half and hour when I realize that I can't sleep...
posted by WhipSmart at 11:40 PM on November 7, 2006

I don't think Rumsfeld's going. Rove, people, Rove. He's going to dig this hole further until it completely collapses on Bush's head.

And solid-one-love, before Bush's 2004 self-described "mandate," I would have agreed. Dems need to hit the Republicans hard with a few words tomorrow -- Iraq, change, mandate.
posted by bardic at 11:40 PM on November 7, 2006

Does anyone know of a webpage that has up-to-date Montana numbers?
posted by barnacles at 11:42 PM on November 7, 2006

That is a bit of a deterrent against frivolous requests to count the votes...

Yeah, I really believe that G. G. Allen would have to foot one red cent of the bill for that one.
posted by Pollomacho at 11:43 PM on November 7, 2006

MSNBC seems to be doing an ok job. The actual state site seemed pokiesh
posted by edgeways at 11:43 PM on November 7, 2006

In Larry Bird's second season, the Celtics won the title. Moses Malone, then of the Rockets, had talked a ton of trash about how inferior the Celts were. At the victory rally in Boston, Larry approvingly read a sign out in the crowd-- "Moses does eat shit."

If Claire McCaskell says "Karl Rove does eat shit" in this interview with Olberman, I'll give everyone on the internet $5.
posted by ibmcginty at 11:44 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

Red State, where things are unusually subdued, is trying to spin this as a call from the American people for a return to "real" conservative values. Heh.
posted by jokeefe at 11:45 PM on November 7, 2006

I read this thread from beginning to end. So much more exciting than the Melbourne Cup. Thanks to all and congratualations also.

I have but one question - I take it you don't have both houses yet. What does it take to get them? I never took a civics class.
posted by Sparx at 11:46 PM on November 7, 2006

Is it just me, or are these middle of the night people clearly the B-team of anchors? I'm watching CNN, and I'm wondering where the hell they got these idiots from. Oy.

At least they stopped showing that damn Social Security singing politician ad . . .
posted by booksherpa at 11:47 PM on November 7, 2006 [1 favorite]

edgeways: thanks. I had been monitoring a site that hadn't changed in hours.
posted by barnacles at 11:47 PM on November 7, 2006

edgeways: thanks. I had been monitoring a site that hadn't changed in hours.
posted by barnacles at 11:48 PM on November 7, 2006

Our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is finally over.
posted by cytherea at 11:49 PM on November 7, 2006

solid-one-love, With the current third of the senate that was in play, having the Democrats take over is fucking amazing. And getting that majority means more than just a slim margin on pluralistic up or down votes, it also gives Democrats control of all the committees that legislation comes out of.

Plus, the Democrats also won control of the House and by a huge margin.

Plus, Democrats are winning big in many state bodies as well as governorships and other state-wide offices. One of the Democratic victories that gave me the biggest thrill was Jennifer Brunner winning secretary of state in Ohio. Guess who's going to oversee any further elections in that state? Yeah.

Actually, FUCK YEAH!
posted by ursus_comiter at 11:50 PM on November 7, 2006

booksherpa, they've definitely got the D team out at NPR.

Sparx, what do you mean by both houses? We have the Senate, and the House, and they make up Congress. So, we have two houses, for some values of "house".
posted by QIbHom at 11:51 PM on November 7, 2006

Sparx: in the Senate there are 100 seats, 2 per state. To take The Senate a party must have majority. Only, the Vice prez casts decding votes in a tie, so a minority party needs 51 seats to have a safe margin.

In the house there are currently 435 seats (based on population in each district), majority rules, no one comes in to break ties if such a thing occurs
posted by edgeways at 11:52 PM on November 7, 2006

Yeah, let's gloat tonight and get back to work fixing our country tomorrow. Rove, Bush, and Cheney aren't going to give an inch if we don't take it from them.
posted by bardic at 11:53 PM on November 7, 2006

Our work isn't done yet: we must make sure that our rightly elected officials impeach the President.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 11:53 PM on November 7, 2006

What's going on with Virginia...DID they stop the count?
posted by you just lost the game at 11:56 PM on November 7, 2006

poop, the R gov on Mn looks like he's back in. The best I can say is he's not the worst out there, just not what I hoped for.
posted by edgeways at 11:56 PM on November 7, 2006

Thanks folks - I saw it referred to as houses upthread and was conflating with British stuff (lords, commons - senate, congress).

Also - you got both!?! Tentative W00t just in case I misunderstood something.
posted by Sparx at 11:57 PM on November 7, 2006

And the Veep, regardless of party, is always the Prez of the Senate. So yeah, he's the tie-breaker when it's 50-50.
posted by bardic at 11:58 PM on November 7, 2006

I have but one question - I take it you don't have both houses yet. What does it take to get them? I never took a civics class.

You have to have a majority in each house seperately. Each state has two Senators regardless of size (totaling 100) and the House of Representatives (totaling 435) is made up of members from districts dividing each state by population. For example California, a very populous state, has 2 Senators and 53 Representatives. Wyoming, having very few people has 2 Senators and 1 Representative.

At this moment the House is heavily headed Democratic while the Senate is looking stuck at 49-49 while they sort out the last few votes in the 2 remaining states.

If the Democrats can take both they have 51. That's enough to run the floor but not enough to keep the Republicans from blocking a lot of legislature or stalling key votes.
posted by Pollomacho at 11:58 PM on November 7, 2006

The free world is about to be saved by a meat butcher with 7 fingers who teaches music in Montana.
posted by stbalbach at 12:00 AM on November 8, 2006 [4 favorites]

Another precinct just reported in VA, so apparently the counting is still on. The state's site says about Allen up by about 7800 votes.
posted by barnacles at 12:02 AM on November 8, 2006

Sparx, the Senate is kind of like the Lords. It was originally appointed, you have to be older to be in the Senate than in the House, stuff like that. But, they've got a bit more power than the Lords, if I understand the parlimentary system.

To make things even more confusing, a few of the states have unicameral legislatures.
posted by QIbHom at 12:03 AM on November 8, 2006

You mean Webb, right?
posted by you just lost the game at 12:03 AM on November 8, 2006

Crap -- I'm dyslexic right now. Webb up by 7800 votes. Allen still behind.
posted by barnacles at 12:04 AM on November 8, 2006

I, for one, am at the edge of my seat. Go Dems - take it ALL!
posted by Sparx at 12:04 AM on November 8, 2006

I'm pretty sure the votes are still being counted in Va, they keep trickling in, albeit at a slow rate, wonder why it's so freakin slow.
posted by edgeways at 12:05 AM on November 8, 2006

Yes, Webb up at the VA site.
posted by Pollomacho at 12:05 AM on November 8, 2006

man.. I keep reporting just behind the tick.

snap
posted by edgeways at 12:06 AM on November 8, 2006

Haha! Republican strategist is on MSNBC talking about how darn important recounts are in close elections (regarding VA).

*googling his comments from 2000 right now
posted by bardic at 12:08 AM on November 8, 2006

MSNBC has final house numbers at R - 199 D - 236. Amazing
posted by edgeways at 12:10 AM on November 8, 2006

BBC - Yellowstone County in MT is doing a recount.
posted by QIbHom at 12:11 AM on November 8, 2006

Yellowstone Co. is Billings, biggest county in Montana.
posted by QIbHom at 12:12 AM on November 8, 2006

So I notice the Webb / Allen contest has been continually prevelant. Why is VA such a touchstone?

(I ask, not only for my own sake - but for the historical value of future cyber acheologists who may one day make it to the bottom of this thread, spelunking for golden opinions of yesteryear)
posted by Sparx at 12:12 AM on November 8, 2006

Five of the remaining precincts to report in VA are in districts that lean Webb. Only two of the remaining districts lean Allen. Allen's best hopes of gaining significant ground have dissipated. Now only two precincts with no more than a few hundred votes for each candidate remain and one of them is an absentee precinct. Aside from the likely recount, Webb won the popular vote.
posted by sequential at 12:12 AM on November 8, 2006

Stat I learned today:

Since the direct election of senators began in 1914, there has never been an election where the House has changed parties and the Senate hasn't.

And right now, it looks like that might just hold up. Might. Burns is closing fast on Tester. Better start hoping these rural districts are filled with angry anti-Abramoff ranchers.

Meanwhile, Richard Pombo is going down. I could not be happier. The man would pave over Yosemite and blow up Half Dome to put in a condo and hunting range if he could.

And up here... King County is counting ballots reeeeeeally sloooowly. So far, less than 20% of the ballots are counted in WA-8. Burner still has a shot -- if she can win, that should push the Dem pickup to +30.

Georgia 6 and 12 are still really, really tight. If the Dems can hold on, the GOP would have zero pickups in the House tonight. They don't have any in the Senate, either, do they? I don't think that's ever happened in modern history.
posted by dw at 12:13 AM on November 8, 2006

becasue, Sparx, who wins VA wins the Senate (barring wierdness in MT)
posted by edgeways at 12:15 AM on November 8, 2006

Sparx, the VA race is important because if the Dems win there and in Montana, they get a 1 vote majority in the Senate.

It isn't otherwise important. Although, it is interesting that a lot of federal buraucrats live there.
posted by QIbHom at 12:15 AM on November 8, 2006

OCTOBER SURPRISE!
posted by 235w103 at 12:15 AM on November 8, 2006

Tester's still ahead by exactly 5,500 votes, with 25% of precincts left to report. It's going to be a nailbiter.
posted by EarBucket at 12:19 AM on November 8, 2006

Thanks again folks. I appreciate the explanations. Didn't realise it was that down to the wire.

The rest of the world has its fingers crossed for you. Best of luck. And keep posting those results! Now I have some timely context they're wonderful.
posted by Sparx at 12:19 AM on November 8, 2006

lgf = lol
posted by sergeant sandwich at 12:20 AM on November 8, 2006

Sparx: where are you at?
posted by barnacles at 12:21 AM on November 8, 2006

....and slightly less egregious criminals making the decisions that effect the rest of us around the world (who don't get a vote)

That's worth remembering. The Dems suck terribly, they're just not outright criminals in quite the same way.

As far as Republicans blocking votes.... "up or down vote!" is going to haunt them.

If the Dems take both houses, when they're sworn in (Jan 20? I'm too lazy to go look), I agree with Blazecock Pileon that the first order of business should be impeachment. Cheney should be impeached purely for his support of waterboarding, which WE DEFINED as a war crime in WW2, and executed officers who ordered it done to our troops. The list of things for which to impeach Bush would probably exceed the length of this thread so far.

Even if they don't take the Senate, I still think they should impeach. The Senate won't convict, but it should be on record. They did it to Clinton for a goddamn blowjob; Bush has ass-reamed the entire country.
posted by Malor at 12:22 AM on November 8, 2006

From LGF:

Tairos 11/7/2006 09:27PM PST


I think this demostrates pretty clearly that voting should be a privilege, NOT a right.


Mmmmm, FASCISM.
posted by 235w103 at 12:23 AM on November 8, 2006 [1 favorite]

Yeah, it is very, very close, Sparx. Which is why I'm up at dark o'clock in the morning, telling myself I really need to sleep, but I have to know if the Dems got the Senate, too.

Never mind I think the Dems have become a bunch of spineless, right of centre wankers.
posted by QIbHom at 12:23 AM on November 8, 2006

To make things even more confusing, a few of the states have unicameral legislatures.

Actually, only Nebraska does.

Why is VA such a touchstone?

Because it's right next to DC, where a lot of the media live. Montana is a long way from NYC or LA. And there are a lot of lawyers there.
posted by dw at 12:24 AM on November 8, 2006

Barnacles: I forget - but it ain't the US so I can't watch it happen on TV and the CNN map is pretty huge if you don't know what to watch for. I've been following this thread intermittently all day - but it heated up in the hours between work and home.

That said: we get a free-to-air thread of Fox and Friends at about 11:30pm - I am so looking forward to seeing their spin.
posted by Sparx at 12:27 AM on November 8, 2006

You are right, dw. Only Nebraska these days. Could have sworn there were a couple others, but I'm horribly out of date.

Thank you for the correction.
posted by QIbHom at 12:28 AM on November 8, 2006

Montana, you are too slow.

Now, I sleep.
posted by rockabilly_pete at 12:28 AM on November 8, 2006

One of Webb leaning precincts came in and he is now up by 8,359.
posted by sequential at 12:30 AM on November 8, 2006

Well done to the left for bringing this home. Can somebody explain to this Aussie what role the independant senators will have? In the past we have had independant senators act pretty randomly when they hold the balance of power.
I hope Australia's leaders are watching what a blind commitment to stay the course coupled with knee jerk conservative values lead to at the ballot box.
posted by bystander at 12:30 AM on November 8, 2006

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,170,686 49.58%
G F Allen Republican 1,162,327 49.22%

with 6 precincts to go.
posted by aberrant at 12:31 AM on November 8, 2006

I'm off to bed. Good night, MeFites. Good luck, Mr. Tester and Mr. Webb.
posted by EarBucket at 12:32 AM on November 8, 2006

According to CNN, these House races have not yet been called: CA-11, CO-04, CT-02, GA-08, GA-12, ID-01, LA-02, MI-09, NC-08, NE-02, NM-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-08, TX-23, WA-08, WY-01

They currently have the Dems at 227 and the Reps at 191, with 17 races left to call. The Dems have picked up 27 seats, the Reps have picked up 0.

And I signed up for CNN's free member whatever so I could pick these races and watch just them, and it's not working in Firefox or IE. Grrrrr.
posted by booksherpa at 12:33 AM on November 8, 2006

VA is also a typically Red state that Dems would like to see turn Blue. Demographically it is around the DC area, and it would be nice to have at least one state, in addition to Florida, that votes Dem regularly. (But I think Louisiana will be blue for a while now too.)

Allen was also being groomed to beat McCain in the 2008 Rep primary. That ain't gonna happen now.
posted by bardic at 12:33 AM on November 8, 2006

In reality the two Independents align more closely with the Ds. Lieberman is a bit of a loose canon as he was snubbed by the Democrat voters in the Primary, and is generally pretty conservative, but on ballanc-ish he is more D than R (that may change though)
posted by edgeways at 12:34 AM on November 8, 2006

what role the independant senators will have?

sanders is one of the most progressive senators out there; he will if anything pull the democrats to the left. lieberman was a democrat before this year when he lost his party's primary.

however he was often castigated by the liberal press (and metafilter) for voting so conservatively. he claims he'll stick to the democrat line but there's no guarantee of that. in reality he's probably the closest thing to a wildcard there is.
posted by sergeant sandwich at 12:35 AM on November 8, 2006

bystandar, both Sanders and Lieberman have said they will caucus with the Dems. They most certainly won't have the balance of power.

Sanders, incidentally, is possibly the only left member of Congress, by international standards. Lieberman will probably continue to vote with the Republicans much of the time.

We don't have the kind of party discipline you have in the UK or Canada (and I haven't an idea how party discipline goes in Australia).
posted by QIbHom at 12:35 AM on November 8, 2006

Bystander, Independents seem to lean towards one party or the other, because that way they can get things done. If they manage to become the deciding vote for the Dems to remain in power, they could use that to leverage some things to their advantage.

I think. This yank hasn't been in Australia long, but long enough to stop paying attention to politics for a while and forget a lot!
posted by barnacles at 12:35 AM on November 8, 2006

More lgf goodness: I quite [sic]. I not going to vote again. It's time I gave up on this political bullshit. I just hope the nuke attack comes soon. Let it be on the East Coast where it belongs.
posted by bardic at 12:35 AM on November 8, 2006

So is it still up in the air?
posted by flippant at 12:37 AM on November 8, 2006

I disagree, sgt sandwich, about Lieberman's voting record. It's been pretty middle-of-the-road Democratic. It's his unprincipled, noisy, smarmy triangulation on high-profile issues like the war that's pissed people off.
posted by ibmcginty at 12:39 AM on November 8, 2006

Yeah, and it might be up in the air for days or longer. Depends on how long the Montana recounts take, and if Allen asks for a recount in VA.
posted by QIbHom at 12:39 AM on November 8, 2006

Why is TX-23 not called? And why are there six Democrats running?
posted by sequential at 12:41 AM on November 8, 2006

MSNBC just announced MT final results probably won't be in until 7:00 AM EST, for those of you staying up (like me). Guess I'll go to bed for a bit now.
posted by General Zubon at 12:45 AM on November 8, 2006

I don't know why they haven't called TX-23, but my guess is that a certain majority is required to win, otherwise there's a runoff. The front runner has less then 50%, which I imagine would be the cutoff point.
posted by booksherpa at 12:47 AM on November 8, 2006

Well, at least a few more are in in MT. 80% precincts reporting with a 5500 vote advantage to the Dems.
posted by barnacles at 12:47 AM on November 8, 2006

sequential, it looks like a judge vacated the primary, so they all got chucked on to the regular ballot.

Why they aren't calling it, I have no idea.
posted by QIbHom at 12:48 AM on November 8, 2006

... and now 81% with a 4900 vote Dem advantage. Gack.
posted by barnacles at 12:50 AM on November 8, 2006

Yes I'm biased, but based on Allen's hang-dog look at his non-concession, I'm think there might not be a recount in VA. MT is still up in the air, trending to the D Tester.
posted by bardic at 12:50 AM on November 8, 2006

Now a 4000 vote advantage in MT. Jeez, if the number would calm down or just not move for a while, I feel like I could log off somewhat optimistic. Otherwise I need to keep staring at them.
posted by barnacles at 12:52 AM on November 8, 2006

Flathead County in Montana just finished their numbers (on CNN) and now the lead has been cut to 3997 for Tester.
posted by Sir BoBoMonkey Pooflinger Esquire III at 12:53 AM on November 8, 2006

The Republican leads in Wyoming by 600 votes. I didn't think I'd see the Dems actually make a showing in Wyoming in my lifetime, but here they are.

Wilson now up on Madrid by 300 in NM-1. The margin in NC-8 is less than 500.

That's three close House races. And there are a few more. Most years we have one or two that have margins of victory under 1000. This is an insane election.

Why is TX-23 not called?

Probably because they're too busy to update it. Earlier they waited nearly two hours before calling McDermott in WA-7. They could have called it two years ago if they wanted to, he's never going to have any substantial opposition.

And with that... I'm going to bed. We're still stuck in Iraq, the Constitution is still being used as toilet paper by this administration, and the tax-cut-and-spend policies have us more debt-ridden than ever before. But for the first time in ten years, I feel pretty good about an election. Here's hoping that 2008 truly brings change to America.

And go Tester/Webb election lawyers!
posted by dw at 12:53 AM on November 8, 2006

QIbHom, I think they're not calling TX-23 because it will only be settled tonight if one candidate gets a majority - the repub is only at 48% now, so there will be a runoff (see the last paragraph of your link).

Also, I think Dennis Kucinich can be called "left" by international standards, but Bernie is definitely the only senator. (There may be others in the house, but Kucinich is my congressman so I'm familiar)
posted by pinespree at 12:54 AM on November 8, 2006

I can't tell you how happy I am to see that peanut-brain Hayworth out. May he grow fat and useless in his McMansion, and drop dead of a stroke within the decade. Good riddance, dumbfuck.

Of course, AZ voters were schizophrenic as usual - weirdly brilliant Governor Napolitano kicked the shit out of the Republican challenger, yet we voted to make the state English-only, may have decided that homosexuals are second-class citizens, and concluded that illegal immigrants are actually game animals. What a state.
posted by Optimus Chyme at 12:55 AM on November 8, 2006

Nice find, QIbHom. The last sentence of that article says "All candidates will appear Nov. 7 on one ballot, regardless of party affiliation. A candidate who wins a majority of all votes cast would be automatically elected; otherwise, the top two vote-getters would advance to a December runoff election."

That sounds to me like the front runner has to take 50% of all votes cast, not just a simple majority like he has now. In a runoff, since it's only the top two, I think that seat maybe goes Dem.
posted by booksherpa at 12:56 AM on November 8, 2006

Matthews just predicted (though with a look of disbelief) Dems take the Senate ... so much for bedtime!
posted by General Zubon at 12:56 AM on November 8, 2006

Pelosi our next speaker, woo. How thrilling. /sarcasm

Well at least she's better looking than Tip O'Neal, sorta.
posted by Pollomacho at 12:56 AM on November 8, 2006

There's some lovely justifications going on at the Corner.

"People need to get back to true conservative principles."

"Santorum's loss isn't really about Santorum."

"'We've dressed up in our best and are prepared to go down like gentlemen.'"

Well, I'm happy to watch you go down from the pier. On the other hand, please feel free to join me for a glass of Champagne over here. It's been a long time coming.
posted by lackutrol at 12:57 AM on November 8, 2006

Kucinich is left, but not in a way I can map to, say, the UK Labour Party pre-Blair. Then there is what his name from Wisconsin, who is leftish.

You are maybe right pinespree, but, unfortunately, we haven't had a viable left in the US since WWI, when the gov't. took advantage of the war to smash the IWW, deport various reds, lock native reds up and generally harass anyone who was pro-worker, socialist, communist or anarchist.

We're still suffering, as the centrepoint of US politics slides farther and farther to the right.

And, when I start blathering about WWI and the Wobblies, it is time for bed, I think .
posted by QIbHom at 1:02 AM on November 8, 2006

"We've dressed up in our best and are prepared to go down like gentlemen."

Those crazy log cabin republicans!
posted by Pollomacho at 1:02 AM on November 8, 2006

82% in, 3800 vote Dem advantage. Dammit, I used to have fingernails. Lost 'em hours ago, though.
posted by barnacles at 1:04 AM on November 8, 2006

Um, yeah, they rooted out some reds after WWI, but McCarthyism didn't take control until the Korean War era. Remember This Land Is Our Land and all the great Great Depression era socialism?
posted by Pollomacho at 1:07 AM on November 8, 2006

Montana is now down to 3300 Dem advantage, but according to my guesstimations, accounting for current trends to stay the same in the few counties left to bring in votes, Tester will win by about 2000, barring any wierdness or rabbits out of a hat.
posted by Sir BoBoMonkey Pooflinger Esquire III at 1:08 AM on November 8, 2006

I mentioned Kucinich because he often makes me proud, but I certainly wouldn't suggest that we have a left here...which makes me sad.
posted by pinespree at 1:08 AM on November 8, 2006

I'm crossing my fingers for you guys.
posted by flippant at 1:14 AM on November 8, 2006

Yes! Pombo is gone! And good riddance! Don't let the door hit you on the way out, Dick.

I'm so excited about tonight. I know I should be going to bed, but I don't think I'll be able to sleep.
posted by kosher_jenny at 1:21 AM on November 8, 2006

optimus, this state we're in (AZ) is nutty!

passed ballot propositions:
--now illegal to keep calfs, pigs or other livestock in pens that they cannot turn around in
--now illegal to smoke in public
--now have a minimum wage of 6.75/hr taking effect in january!
--said no to a gay marriage ban (hopefully)

but...
--first and second meth offenses no longer rate only probation
--"illegals" are now, as you said, classified as subhuman
--english is the official language (tell that to the 30% or so that don't really speak it)
--any land-use "infringement" on private property will have to be compensated for (a proposition the support for which was almost entirely funded by a dude in new york state!)

i look forward to the changing of all the shitty suburban malls with fancy spanish names to their more mundane english counterparts. i can't wait until those aj's shopping bitches in the tucson foothills have to go shopping at "the enchanted" and return to their homes in "the entrance".

or perhaps they'll slum it on down to "the with" mall, maybe catch lunch at the famed "little thing."

i can't wait.
posted by Hat Maui at 1:21 AM on November 8, 2006

Boy, Montana sure does count slow.
posted by jahmoon at 1:22 AM on November 8, 2006

"Respectable" right-wing rags like NR and The Weekly Standard already have their meme-machines in place -- this isn't about failed conservative polices, it's about Bush and Rove and Rummy not being committed enough to said policies. This is really about 1) Bill Clinton, who destroyed our military and 2) Michael Moore, Cindy Sheehan, and other homo-loving libs who sapped out troops' will to fight.

Like clockwork.
posted by bardic at 1:44 AM on November 8, 2006

Our work isn't done yet: we must make sure that our rightly elected officials impeach the President.

CAT
FUD
---->

Oh please, oh please...
posted by Slithy_Tove at 1:46 AM on November 8, 2006 [1 favorite]

This has been a weird day for me. I know that this happens everywhere, but it felt odd that I actually know Brad Ellsworth who won the 8th in Indiana. Indiana's education system has done a good job teaching me that the House and Senate don't mean anything, so I really felt weird seeing him being talked about on CNN and BBC (International).

Ergh, what's the topic again?
posted by Cyclopsis Raptor at 1:58 AM on November 8, 2006

It's almost 5am here in the east, CNN is repeating bits of coverage, and no races have been called in an hour or so. Time for bed.

The races I still have listed as not called yet by CNN are: CO-04, CT-02, GA-08, GA-12, ID-01, LA-02, MI-09, NC-08, NE-02, NM-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-06, PA-08, TX-23, WA-08, WY-01. GA-08, GA-12, and LA-02 are the only ones on that list currently held by Dems. The House stands right now at 227 Dems, 191 Reps, and 17 races not yet called. We'll see what tomorrow (erk, today) brings.
posted by booksherpa at 1:59 AM on November 8, 2006

That LGF thread is just astonishing. What a non-stop parade of ignorance and hatred. People gleefully wishing for a terrorist attack on American soil, without anyone stepping in to moderate. The scoundrels have shown definitively over there that partisanship trumps patriotism.
posted by psmealey at 3:03 AM on November 8, 2006

I was here.
posted by Dunwitty at 3:25 AM on November 8, 2006

Alas, the only flag I have isn't waveable, being permanently folded. I haven't felt like waving Old Glory in a LONG time. Very unexpected feeling. I was dancing at 4am my time, at the news that Santorum lost. It's been increasingly awesome since.
posted by Goofyy at 3:33 AM on November 8, 2006 [1 favorite]

And we're back! Tester maintains a slim 1743 vote lead with 9% of precincts left to report in, all in sharply divided counties. They really need to finish counting. Like now.
posted by EarBucket at 4:10 AM on November 8, 2006

They really need to finish counting. Like now.

Are you from Florida? (I know that wasn't how you meant it, but it's been a long night..)
posted by imperium at 4:21 AM on November 8, 2006

psmealey opines "That LGF thread is just astonishing. What a non-stop parade of ignorance and hatred. People gleefully wishing for a terrorist attack on American soil, without anyone stepping in to moderate."

Well, there's a reason LGF has the reputation it has.
posted by clevershark at 4:33 AM on November 8, 2006

Actually here's a funny thing -- why does it take longer for the final tally to come in now that they have electronic voting?
posted by clevershark at 4:34 AM on November 8, 2006

That LGF thread is just astonishing. What a non-stop parade of ignorance and hatred.

Yeah, I was going to go through and take some selective quotes from it, but really, the whole thing needs to be read as a whole to understand where the threats to our current democracy lie: not with the politicians, but for the sad, stupid, scared populace.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 4:38 AM on November 8, 2006

why does it take longer for the final tally to come in now that they have electronic voting?

Mentioned upthread, electronic state votes now have to go through state central mother-computer before they're released to the press (although it seems like there are leaks).

So yeah, chalk me up as another mail-in/paper ballot guy. The computer thing just has too many problems right now.
posted by bardic at 4:48 AM on November 8, 2006

I'm on the air at a radio station in Lexington, Kentucky. Is there any news on montana? What should I watch?
posted by phrontist at 5:37 AM on November 8, 2006

Man, was this good news to wake up to. A 27 seat gain in the House, and the Reds may lose the Senate too. Wow. Rock on, you lefty terrorists, rock on.
posted by dejah420 at 5:38 AM on November 8, 2006

So excellent. A real centrist government not at the mercy of neocon fools. What a relief...
posted by Skygazer at 6:16 AM on November 8, 2006

99% of the precincts in and Tester clings to a 1700 vote lead.

There might still be a few stragglers out there that can throw this election to Burns, but at this point it's down to some absentees.

Did you know that Montana is mainly a paper ballot state?
posted by dw at 6:50 AM on November 8, 2006

psmealey writes: "That LGF thread is just astonishing. What a non-stop parade of ignorance and hatred. People gleefully wishing for a terrorist attack on American soil, without anyone stepping in to moderate."

My favourite comment:

#272 Greg 11/7/2006 10:43PM PST

Bush is losing precisely because he has took the high road after 9/11 instead of Zyclon B-ing most of the muslim world after attacking our shores as they have been doing to our shipping since 1800.

...

Islam must have a boot smashing into its face forever until it becomes a grown up religion not bent on murdering everyone on the planet.

posted by blag at 6:55 AM on November 8, 2006

Oh man...woke up and Webb-Allen is STILL going on! So with a seven thousand voting lead and 99.84% precincts reporting in, is this too close to call?

And Tester is 3,000 ahead.
posted by ed at 7:07 AM on November 8, 2006

Yesterday America stood up and told Bush, "Stop it. Shut up. We think you're an idiot. We think you're a moron. We're sorry you got the job. You are not the king. You are a dumb jock frat boy, and you always will be. You will now stop all this shit, immeditately.
We voted yesterday and threw your boys out of Congress. If you don't want us coming after your own ass, you will sign what we pass and change your ways." ...

: >

and i don't know if anyone posted this, but VA uses no paper backup machines, so the only recount possible is just to recount the original machine totals.
posted by amberglow at 7:34 AM on November 8, 2006

I'd like to point out that New Hampshire was an absolute bloodbath for Republicans, on both the federal and state levels.

For the first time since 1912, NH has two Democratic Congresspeople. And for the first time ever, one of them is a woman, Carol Shea-Porter, a social worker who ran on an anti-war platform and took no money from PACs or businesses. Both of them unseated entrenched Republican incumbents. Truly stunning results.

Also for just the third time since the 19th century, Democrats control the state Senate. Add to that the overwhelming reelection of the Democratic Governor, and the fact that it went for Kerry in '04, and NH is glowing bright, bright blue.
posted by schoolgirl report at 7:59 AM on November 8, 2006

I would like to point out that between the Senate, House, and Governors, as it stands, the Dems have gained 37 seats official, and will probably gain more, while the Republicans have gained: 0. A complete shutout, a no-hitter, grand slam. And with the races that are still counting it doesn't look like the GOP are going to have any gainers this election. That whole M word seems more fitting this election for the Dems than for Bush in the last.
posted by Sir BoBoMonkey Pooflinger Esquire III at 8:11 AM on November 8, 2006

Tester and Webb will both win.

Thank you to everyone who voted, and GO DEMS
posted by Cycloptichorn at 8:42 AM on November 8, 2006

and i don't know if anyone posted this, but VA uses no paper backup machines, so the only recount possible is just to recount the original machine totals.

VA is not some homogeneous system, much to the relief of Amendment 1 backers (haha, I kill me). At my polling place in Loudoun county I cast my vote on a fill-in-the-bubble ballot that fed into an optical scan machine, so they can certainly go back and consult my well-mastered scantron skillz to see my original intent.

In other words, you are wrong. Some areas are touch-screen, but not all.
posted by phearlez at 8:42 AM on November 8, 2006

I would like to apologize to the world for my cynicism. Both before the election and right now.

I cautiously embrace hope.

Now. Let's GET THE FUCK OUT OF IRAQ.
posted by tkchrist at 9:04 AM on November 8, 2006

Strategic analysis from a Free Republic thread:

'This was a vote against politically correct warfare, that's all it comes down to. If GWB had nuked Fallujah the minute we saw pictures of dead burnt bodies of US contractors hanging from that bridge, we'd have killed a fair number of insurgents, saved the lives of US military who had to take that city in house-to-house fighting, and he would have been forgiven by people who were initially shocked. Anyone who hates Bush for the war would not have hated him any more. Furthermore, we'd have put a mighty fear in the hearts of our opponents in Iraq, and would likely have crushed the resistance.'
posted by Mocata at 9:09 AM on November 8, 2006

For a quick and dirty summary of how my forecasting played out, you can check out this Google spreadsheet. Ultimately, Webb's lead (currently 7,050) was more substantial than my projections yielded (3,842, according to my last projection). I'm guessing that's because the last precincts to submit their data were A) larger and B) proportionally more Democratic (at my last projection, I was projecting 2,235 more votes for Webb, and he ended up getting 3,118 more), so the projection was a little conservative on how much influence those precincts would have. So ... for the future ... this is another data point in the "late returns skew Democratic" camp. No real surprises there "waitaminute. larger precincts take longer to submit data?!?!", but it was an interesting project.

If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet I was using to come up with my numbers, e-mail me and I'll send it to you. It's too big for Google (really).

madamjujujive - Thanks. (I am a guy, though. My "girl" comment from above was in regards to Gail Parker being a woman.)
posted by Alt F4 at 9:15 AM on November 8, 2006

In other words, you are wrong. Some areas are touch-screen, but not all.

That's what i get for listening to CNN's "Legal Expert" Toobin i guess... so can enough votes change to flip the win?
posted by amberglow at 9:21 AM on November 8, 2006

Looking at the county by county data in Montana it looks like the only thing left to count to Megher county, and the Meagher County website says there is only about 2k people who live there, so if every singly ine of them voted, and they all voted R, then would still win, bearly. But the political section on that site says that during the last prez election the vote went 698 votes Bush, 297 Kerry. So about 1000 people vote on a good year and it isn't a mono vote.

Tester's got it. Guess it's just recounting now
posted by edgeways at 9:34 AM on November 8, 2006

ABC news just called Montana for Tester.
posted by EarBucket at 9:42 AM on November 8, 2006

yay.. now looking at VA
posted by edgeways at 9:45 AM on November 8, 2006

Tester's got it. Guess it's just recounting now

Anyone who's lived in Washington state the last four years knows that the recount is a huge deal. The Dems have won the first count, but it's the last count that counts.

No pun intended.
posted by dw at 9:47 AM on November 8, 2006

Looking county by county in Va. The biggest county left that has not turned in all results is Fairfax. About a million people live in fairfax, and looks like only about 7k votes have been counted so far. Fairfax goes heavy D iirc. This could be done if they could just count the votes
posted by edgeways at 9:49 AM on November 8, 2006

MSNBC is reporting that the AP is stating that Rumsfeld is resigning...

oh, SNAP!
posted by WhipSmart at 9:51 AM on November 8, 2006

oops, I guess there is a fairfax CITY county, which is where those votes are... don't know much about Fairfax City, but it's voted Webb 56% so far.
posted by edgeways at 9:52 AM on November 8, 2006

I have no idea how many paper votes are out there. It seems that each region gets to choose their own crud. Here's the Arlington page talking about touch-screens (and odds-on that's why Toobin would think it's all touch screen - I think a lot of the talking heads have never made it as far as Fairfax county)

The Loudoun electoral board's 07 goals[PDF] include rolling out 60 touch screen devices, so these turds may find their way into universal use. There's just too many municipalities for me to spend time googling up election board information for all of them.
posted by phearlez at 9:54 AM on November 8, 2006

Last night I said that Rummy would get out of the way because he would be a lightning rod for investigations... I hope that the fact that he is no longer in office won't prevent the Dems from strenuously investigating the role he played in the debacle that is Iraq...
posted by WhipSmart at 9:57 AM on November 8, 2006

MSNBC is reporting that the AP is stating that Rumsfeld is resigning...

Who will win the race to FPP a link to the three line story on CNN.com?
posted by spicynuts at 10:00 AM on November 8, 2006

As mentioned upthread Lieberman may fill that role, which puts the R Con Gov in charge of putting in a replacement which takes the Senate back to 50/50. Googling it, there appears to be a lot of chatter about this

Want to bet Bush waits till the VA race is decided to announce his replacement?
posted by edgeways at 10:00 AM on November 8, 2006

Robert Gates, Ex-CIA man from daddy's team, is supposedly Rummy's replacement according to MSNBC.
posted by General Zubon at 10:05 AM on November 8, 2006

Scratch the word "supposedly", above. Bushy just confirmed it.
posted by General Zubon at 10:09 AM on November 8, 2006

well thats a little sigh of relief
posted by edgeways at 10:13 AM on November 8, 2006

Something tells me I should have bought some stock in this company.
posted by SBMike at 10:19 AM on November 8, 2006

Did I just hear Bush describe the outcome of the election as a "thumpin' " ?!?!?
posted by General Zubon at 10:22 AM on November 8, 2006

And BTW, Montana has officially gone Democrat as of now. Only Macaca Goldstein's fate determines the Senate!
posted by ernie at 10:28 AM on November 8, 2006

Santorum lost.

That's enough to make me happy. That and I actually have a represenative that agrees with my views now.
posted by triolus at 11:26 AM on November 8, 2006

Alt F4, that was impressive. Nicely done.
posted by bardic at 1:46 PM on November 8, 2006

yeah, AltF4 put me to shame, as did Civil_Disobedient. way to go, guys -- you should have been watching the betting lines like i was, 'cause your math skills woulda made you a lot of money ;)

great thread in general, all -- even though the stress gave me enough of a headache that i missed an entire day of law school. i think it was worth it. thanks to everyone, and again to XQUZYPHYR.
posted by spiderwire at 2:34 PM on November 8, 2006

A Night Of Firsts: Pelosi; Rangel, Conyers, Thompson all Chairs; Ellison; record # of women; and Patrick in MA. : >
posted by amberglow at 2:49 PM on November 8, 2006

ooo--rudepundit: America Says to the Media and the New Congress: Crush This Man:
If there was a clear mandate that comes from last night's midterm elections, it is this: the American people want the Bush presidency destroyed. However it must be done, it has to be done, so that the only legacy left from his squalid six years is bodies stacked like cordwood for the bonfires of uselessness. If you flinch from this sacred duty, if you pretend to bipartisanship and comity, you will have not heeded the message of the citizenry. Destruction first, so that there will be space for construction. ...
posted by amberglow at 3:01 PM on November 8, 2006

Seconding spiderwire's "great thread!" assessment, with props to all posters.
posted by Pallas Athena at 4:04 PM on November 8, 2006

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) urged to concede race.

“Top Republicans in Washington will give Sen. George Allen a few days to take stock of his legal and political options before beginning to pressure him to concede to James Webb. Senior Republican officials and White House aides believe that Webb won the race.”

posted by ericb at 5:14 PM on November 8, 2006

AP apparently just called VA for Webb.
posted by amberglow at 5:34 PM on November 8, 2006

A Night Of Firsts:

Don't forget Bernie.
posted by homunculus at 5:35 PM on November 8, 2006

and Allen might concede tomorrow--excellent! so we're 50D-48R-2I now?
posted by amberglow at 5:37 PM on November 8, 2006

Hawt.
posted by bardic at 5:38 PM on November 8, 2006

oh yeah--we need more socialists : >
posted by amberglow at 5:52 PM on November 8, 2006

oh, we're 49D-49R, with 2 I

(Lieberman's gonna switch, so we'll be 50-50 with Saunders)
posted by amberglow at 6:06 PM on November 8, 2006

AP: Democrats Take Control of the Senate
posted by rxrfrx at 6:29 PM on November 8, 2006

Now that the election is behind us, and the Democrats control one or possibly both houses of Congress, there's no reason not to admit it: the Right was right about us all along. Here is our 25-point manifesto for the new Congress:

1. Mandatory homosexuality
2. Drug-filled condoms in schools
3. Introduce the new Destruction of Marriage Act
4. Border fence replaced with free shuttle buses
5. Osama Bin Laden to be Secretary of State ...

; >
posted by amberglow at 6:41 PM on November 8, 2006

Sweet. Congrats, America!
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 7:04 PM on November 8, 2006

yay... this will not end the obnoxiousness of government, but will take the edge off it... or perhaps just the rust. Still better then before
posted by edgeways at 7:09 PM on November 8, 2006

Let's just hope the new bosses understand they must recoup some losses by going after the corporations that benefited from looting the treasury under the neo-cons. Let's have Congress take a detailed tour through the books of Haliburton and other contractors.
posted by Goofyy at 8:01 PM on November 8, 2006

they will definitely, Goofyy, but the real question is whether the exec branch will just ignore the subpoenas and demands for testimony.
posted by amberglow at 8:04 PM on November 8, 2006

CNN says Allen is preparing to concede.
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 11:07 AM on November 9, 2006

There's a news conference about to start--linked on the Washington Post homepage.
posted by MrMoonPie at 12:06 PM on November 9, 2006

Leaked text of George Allen concession speech:

(Rebel yell:) Yeeeeeee-haw!

Maaaaaaa-caaaaaaa-caaaaaa!

[Allen points at press] You're all Macacas! I've got a noose for you.

I didn't want those goddam turtle-eating n*gg*r votes anyway! Ya'll gonna get deer heads in your mailboxes!

Jim Webb writes pornos, Macaca!

Yeeeaaah-hawww.

And I'm no Jew! I like me my pork sammiches!

Dixieland 4ever!!

Macaca!! F*ck y'all!

posted by orthogonality at 12:10 PM on November 9, 2006

Allen concedes!
posted by MrMoonPie at 12:15 PM on November 9, 2006

yay! but Schumer has to shut up about "pushing aside special interests"--he means me, all minorities, women, and pretty much his whole base.
posted by amberglow at 12:44 PM on November 9, 2006

and they're insane for putting Lieberman as Chair of Homeland Security---they're assholes for it.

He supported spying, patriot act, torture--every single thing Bush has done. If this is the price for him staying with Dems (and he won't do that in terms of voting--he already made that clear), it's too high a price.
posted by amberglow at 3:54 PM on November 9, 2006

More on CNN/Mehlman and Maher: I just got a cease-and-desist letter from YouTube, see below, regarding my CNN footage I posted. The footage, you’ll recall, was from Larry King Live last night in which Bill Maher outed Republican Party chair Ken Mehlman as gay. ...

CNN has also now edited the official transcript of Larry King Live, so that no one will ever know what really happened. ...
posted by amberglow at 4:09 PM on November 9, 2006

Profiles of all the new House members, including the guy who was in Orleans (John Hall, who won in upstate NY) : >
posted by amberglow at 6:11 PM on November 9, 2006

Counties that switched from GOP to Dem this time
posted by amberglow at 6:17 PM on November 9, 2006