SubscribeIt's far more likely to be an uncommon presentation of a common entity, than a common presentation of an uncommon one.
Alter’s misdiagnosis resulted from the use of a heuristic called “availability,” which refers to the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event by the ease with which relevant examples come to mind. ... For example, a businessman may estimate the likelihood that a given venture could fail by recalling difficulties that his associates had encountered in the marketplace, rather than by relying on all the data available to him about the venture; the experiences most familiar to him can bias his assessment of the chances for success.It seems supremely ironic to me that the author mentions this as a logical fallacy, and yet spends about a third of the article detailing an incident that happened to him and another quarter citing examples given to him by the people he interviewed.
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posted by Gyan at 11:06 PM on March 21, 2007