all enter, will all leave?
January 19, 2008 6:14 AM Subscribe
A big day in the Presidential nomination contests today with both parties caucusing in Nevada (see main link) and Republicans holding their primary in South Carolina. Pundits have been wrong so far to say any state was "must win" for anyone but we may get more visibility today even so.
Nevada and South Carolina are a two-step for the Democrats: Nevada today, South Carolina next week.
Clinton has more at stake today than Obama. A win here is very healthy development, but Obama lives on to fight in South Carolina given the preponderance of African American primary voters. A win by Obama today, on the other hand, might make a win in South Carolina a foregone conclusion, and leaves Clinton trying to make her case on Super Tuesday on a 1-3 record. A particularly dismal third place finish from Edwards today might also put his voters in South Carolina into play -- he won there in 2004.
For the Republicans, Nevada and South Carolina are both today and Florida, in 11 days, is the follow-up contest.
South Carolina is a McCain - Huckabee contest for first place and a Thompson - Romney contest for third place. Huckabee regains his Iowa momentum with a win, and starts to look strong indeed if Thompson loses his contest and comes fourth, leaving Huckabee as the only Southern candidate and the only viable candidate with heavy cultural conservative appeal. McCain keeps his co-leader status with a win, but with a second place finish starts to look like a pretty pallid alternative for November.
A win in Nevada for Romney -- he leads in the polls and always has -- will let him maintain his delegate lead and his argument for the nomination. A loss to McCain would be a huge upset and (tied with a South Carolina win) the chance for McCain to emerge as the clear front-runner.
Giuliani's not contesting either state today; he "wins" if the results keep the field fragmented into Florida, which is as close to "must win" for him as any state has been for anyone. He wants McCain and Romney still dueling for the middle and Huckabee and if possible Thompson still fighting for the right. This lets him (he hopes) win Florida, and then put together wins in New York, California, New Jersey, Connecticut and a few other Super Tuesday big states. He then emerges with a delegate lead on the morning of February 6 which makes all his early state non-competition irrelevant.
Nevada and South Carolina are a two-step for the Democrats: Nevada today, South Carolina next week.
Clinton has more at stake today than Obama. A win here is very healthy development, but Obama lives on to fight in South Carolina given the preponderance of African American primary voters. A win by Obama today, on the other hand, might make a win in South Carolina a foregone conclusion, and leaves Clinton trying to make her case on Super Tuesday on a 1-3 record. A particularly dismal third place finish from Edwards today might also put his voters in South Carolina into play -- he won there in 2004.
For the Republicans, Nevada and South Carolina are both today and Florida, in 11 days, is the follow-up contest.
South Carolina is a McCain - Huckabee contest for first place and a Thompson - Romney contest for third place. Huckabee regains his Iowa momentum with a win, and starts to look strong indeed if Thompson loses his contest and comes fourth, leaving Huckabee as the only Southern candidate and the only viable candidate with heavy cultural conservative appeal. McCain keeps his co-leader status with a win, but with a second place finish starts to look like a pretty pallid alternative for November.
A win in Nevada for Romney -- he leads in the polls and always has -- will let him maintain his delegate lead and his argument for the nomination. A loss to McCain would be a huge upset and (tied with a South Carolina win) the chance for McCain to emerge as the clear front-runner.
Giuliani's not contesting either state today; he "wins" if the results keep the field fragmented into Florida, which is as close to "must win" for him as any state has been for anyone. He wants McCain and Romney still dueling for the middle and Huckabee and if possible Thompson still fighting for the right. This lets him (he hopes) win Florida, and then put together wins in New York, California, New Jersey, Connecticut and a few other Super Tuesday big states. He then emerges with a delegate lead on the morning of February 6 which makes all his early state non-competition irrelevant.
This post was deleted for the following reason: this is an essay with a few links in it. It's not really something neat you found on the web that other people haven't seen before that might encourage discussion from others. Is it? It seems a lot like GYOB territory. -- jessamyn
This Metafilter.... I do not think it means what you think it means.
posted by kbanas at 6:30 AM on January 19, 2008
posted by kbanas at 6:30 AM on January 19, 2008
MattD, you've been a MeFite for a long, long time. What happened that you posted this?
posted by Bugbread at 6:40 AM on January 19, 2008
posted by Bugbread at 6:40 AM on January 19, 2008
What we need more of is discussions of the horse race angle. Who gives a fuck what these people believe, I want to know who's winning.
posted by absalom at 6:45 AM on January 19, 2008
posted by absalom at 6:45 AM on January 19, 2008
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posted by brautigan at 6:19 AM on January 19, 2008