HFM: We were just sitting here watching. It was amazing how the stock just dove. It had been trading poorly for months but it lost 60 percent of its value in a couple of hours. And we were mesmerized just watching on our Reuters screens. And everyone in the market was doing the same thing, the phone stopped ringing, I stopped getting Bloomberg messages, everyone was just watching: "It can’t be! What’s going on! Stuff doesn’t lose that much value on no news in a couple of hours."
And really what was going on was that there was a run going on against Bear and people were getting wind of it.
n+1: There was no news, Bear never announced—
HFM: Nothing like that, in fact they were going to come out and say everything was fine. I don’t want to pick on Bear but it was just incredible. And then what happened in subsequent days is that similar prophecies—stock price prophecies—happened to other financial stocks, and rumormongers thought they could spread rumors and drive down the stock of other financial companies in other situations. Or maybe everybody just came to the same conclusions themselves. The same thing happened to Lehman but they were able to restore confidence and the stock went back up.
n+1: So the computers are running the...posted by Asparagirl at 4:11 PM on April 8, 2008 [3 favorites]
HFM: Yeah, the computer is sending out the orders and doing the trading.
n+1: It's just a couple steps from that to the computers enslaving—
HFM: Yes, but I for one welcome our computer trading masters.
People actually call it "black box trading," because sometimes you don't even know why the black box is doing what it's doing, because the whole idea is that if you could, you should be doing it yourself. But it's something that's done on such a big scale, a universe of several thousand stocks, that a human brain can't do it in real time. The problem is that the DNA of a lot of these models is very, very similar, it's like an ecosystem with no biodiversity because most of the people who do stat-arb can trace their lineage, their intellectual lineage, back to four or five guys who really started the whole black box trading discipline in the '70s and '80s.
n+1: They have zombie banks?In Japan, naturally.
HFM: It’s a low-risk fund by design.Heh.
n+1: What about when you lost 150 million dollars in sub-prime?
HFM: We’re not going to talk about that.
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posted by socalsamba at 3:40 PM on April 8, 2008